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As nobody on the ground saw the smoke trail from the BUK missile, SU-25 came of the forefront of plausible hypothesis about how MH17 was shut down. Su-25 involvement hypothesis got popular and new facts were provided in Aug 3 - Aug 9 timeframe:
SU-25 involvement is possible if and only if shooting was a pre-planned provocation. In no way pilot of SU-25 can hit Boeing airliner by accident. The problem with this hypothesis is that SU-25 is not an interceptor. It has low speed and low operational altitude. The Su-25 is a strike aircraft with no radar and can't achieve supersonic speeds. In non-modified variant the top speed is just 970 km/h.
The Su-25s could be in the air on July 17 for calibration/practice for the BUK crews so that they would get it right when and if there were Russian airstrikes. In this case it could serve as a trap to force confederates fire and then escape. This variant of entrapment can't be written off if confederates did have an operations BUK system (big if).
Like was the case with BUK, Ukrainians modified/modernize their SU-25 and improved its characteristics. So the 10,000 meters ceiling of stock Su-25 probably is no longer applicable and for a shot period of time such modified aircraft probably was able to operate at altitudes exceeding 10,000 meters.
How Ukrainian Su-25s have been modernized and what exactly new capabilities were is still open to question.
Anonymous said...
The Ukrainian military upgraded their SU-25,s to the SU-25M1.The Ukrainian aviation factory in Zaporozhye, undertook the assignment of the modernization of the Ukrainian Su-25 Frogfoot. The project included the reinforcement of structural components, the installment of advanced electronic navigational equipment and a new cockpit with multiple function monitors.
weapons.
30-mm two-barrel cannon GSh-30-2 with 250 rounds.
Warload - 4.000 kg in 10 hardpoints, normal -1.340 kg
8-10 500-,250-kg bombs, 32x 100-kg bombs, napalm tanks
rokets 8-10 ML UB-32-57 (320(252) x 57-mm)
or 8-10 240-mm, packets UR S-5 (57-mm), S-8 (80-mm), S-24 (240-mm) x S-25 (340-mm).
Air-to-air missile, Air-to-surface missile Kh-25ML, Kh-29L and S-25L
SPPU-22 pods with 23-mm cannon GSh-23L with 260 rounds
http://www.redstar.gr/Foto_red/Eng/Aircraft/Su_25M1.html
It is equipped with 30 mm auto-cannon and air-to-air R-60M missile (reliable hit from 5km distance). The latter has 3 Kg shrapnel payload, enough to shatter the surface of the any airliner (The Vineyard of the Saker)
AnonymousTurns out that the Su-25 can carry the R-60 air-to-air missile which can fly at over 3'000km per hour and thus easily catch up with a cruising airliner. So the Su-25+R-60 combination has a flight envelope which is sufficient to attack a Boeing.
It seems the R-60 can also be fitted with two types of proximity fuse, one optical and one radar. The pilot would know the exact configuration and thus how to appropriately target the missile.
However, if the IR seeker version of the R-60 were used, wouldn't the expected outcome be that only one of the two engines on the 777 would be hit, causing the aircraft to veer violently off course and begin descending rapidly?
In other words, if the Ukie pilot hit MH17 with this model of the R-60, wouldn't it be safe for him to expect that the plane would sharply deviate from its original heading toward Russia and come down somewhere in the Eastern Ukraine?
It also makes sense that the pilot would have been prepared to close in and use machine gun fire to finish off the cockpit crew, as they could have survived a missile strike against one of the 777 engines, and might otherwise have more of a chance to report details to ATC.Anonymous Anonymous said...
The extreme range of an R60 missile is 12 miles..they are "guaranteed" to strike their targets inside 6 miles... From Russian military signals data one Su25 appeared to climb sharply toward the 777 before turned sharply (because one engine failed)...Probably, the pilot of the Su25 fired 2 missiles, one hit the engine another hit the cockpit area (or the second Su25 launched within a second or two of the first aircraft...
REMEBER THE Su 25 CLIMBED STEEPLY TOWARD THE 777 FROM UNDERNEATH (PROBABLY TO TARGET AND FIRE) !!! HE WOULD NOT HAVE HAD TO BE AT THE SAME ALTITUDE !!!!
04 August, 2014 07:46Anonymous said...
My thoughts exactly. The black boxes were in Russian hands for a few days and I would be extremely disappointed if the Russians would not have obtained a copy of the last minute conversation and to keep quiet about it and let Washington walk into it's own knife by creating the Mother of all Embarrassments and trump the soon to be released audio recordings, with the last two minutes missing and publish the full recordings. Game, set and match Russia. This would dwarf the embarrassment of the release of the telephone conversation of Nicky F**kland.
Kind regards,
Dutch
P.S. all the comments sections in European media are predominantly pro-Russia. Europe is not going to get itself manouvered into a conflict with Russia, no matter how much the NATO clowns would want it.Blogger Tar and Feather The Bastards said...
Saker . . this takes into account pretty much all the "facts" that are known or supposedly known Very plausible & very straight forward.
There's a 6 odd minute CBC recording of Michael Bociurkiw - Canadian lead of the OSCE team - (but I couldn't get it to play in New Zealand), talking machine gun holes & lack of missile evidence. Below is a link to a shortened Youtube clip where he talks about the bullet holes. I suggest everyone download a copy as it's liable to be flushed down the memory hole & the man himself killed in a Militia / "TERRORIST" attack on his convoy at some stage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ze9BNGDyk4
As an aside to MH17, re the ongoing atrocities in Donbass AND Gaza ( & Syria for that matter), can we all take the time in the next 24 hours to contact by phone the local synagog, israeli embassy, us embassy, your own govt representative and at least one media outlet / talkback. Let them HEAR how outraged you are. These scum know that for every person that ACTUALLY contacts them there are another 10 or 20 to feel the same. US & UK residents - let your MP/congresscritter KNOW that unless you hear them speaking out they will lose your vote & donation & that you will actively work & vote for their opponent next time theres a "election".Anonymous said...
"So fellow amateur sleuths out there, where is the nearest airport to the where the airliner was attacked with the missile to its engine? In Russia or Ukraine?"
I would say Donetsk. The plane was already passed Donetsk, hence the U-turn.
Again the cockpit:
http://www.anderweltonline.com/fileadmin/user_upload/PDF/Cockpit-MH017.pdf
I have not seen other parts so intensely sprayed with shrapnel/30 mm bullets.
Plausible scenario: small missile, hits engine, plane can carry on and decides to land at nearest airport Donetsk, comes at lower altitude in machine gun range of Su-25 and gunners decide to take out pilots. A Buk would have completely disintegrated the plane, which did not happen and no eyewitness on the ground supports the launching of a Buk.
Kind regards,
Dutch
04 August, 2014 12:16Anonymous elsi said...
Back home again, off topic but interesting debate on the European left, a couple of weeks ago edition of Fort Apache:
http://youtu.be/35z20k79fII?list=PL7-PRrKey3Ht_b5QcxIdHz2ivScTBCyEVRadik said...
Robert Parry seems to have some new infos from his sources:
"Contrary to the Obama administration’s public claims blaming eastern Ukrainian rebels and Russia for the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, some U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that the rebels and Russia were likely not at fault and that it appears Ukrainian government forces were to blame, according to a source briefed on these findings.
This judgment – at odds with what President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have expressed publicly – is based largely on the absence of U.S. government evidence that Russia supplied the rebels with a Buk anti-aircraft missile system that would be needed to hit a civilian jetliner flying at 33,000 feet, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity."http://consortiumnews.com/2014/08/03/flight-17-shoot-down-scenario-shifts/
04 August, 2014 12:59
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www.theamericanconservative.com
[ Editor's note : VT has long asserted that two Ukrainian SU 25s or SU27s "radar spoofed" shot down MH 17. We did so on live Russia Today backed by experienced combat pilots and we presented evidence that an Israeli F15E AWAC aided, taking off from Azerbaijan, to vector in the shootdown.
Now, years later, Russia speaks up after we believe media there was silenced by pro-Israeli traitors Gordon Duff ]
*
The pilot's death, preliminarily ruled a suicide, has reopened claims about his possible role in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in the summer of 2014.
Vladislav Voloshin, the Ukrainian combat pilot which some Russian investigative journalists have accused of responsibility for the MH17 disaster, allegedly shot himself Sunday at his home.
According to a press release by police in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv, the 29-year-old pilot's wife heard the gunshot and called the emergency services. Voloshin succumbed to his wounds on route to hospital.
According to the police, the pilot was shot by a Makarov pistol, a standard issue military and police side arm in Ukraine. The weapon has been sent for examination. Police have opened a criminal investigation.
Inconvenient Facts: JIT Likely to Ignore New Russian MH17 EvidenceRelatives told police that Voloshin had been in a depressed state, and had voiced suicidal thoughts. Friends and family told local media that he was suffering from problems associated with the reconstruction of Mykolaiv's airport, where he was acting director.
Voloshin's name came to be associated with independent investigations into the destruction of Flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine. In late 2014, a Ukrainian army aircraft mechanic told Russian media that the passenger airliner may have been downed by a Su-25 close air support aircraft flown by Voloshin.
The Ukrainian side confirmed that the pilot was in the military at the time, but denied that he flew on the day the Malaysian airliner was brought down.
Speaking to Sputnik about Voloshin's suspected suicide, Ukrainian politics expert Bogdan Bezpalko said that Kiev's version aside, "one cannot help but think that the other side may have eliminated him as a dangerous witness who could have lifted the veil of secrecy over the downing of MH17, which would subsequently strengthen Russia's position."
According to the political scientist, "it's quite obvious that it was not in Russia's interest to shoot down this plane, and that all this was a provocation directed against our country."
In Bezpalko's view, Kiev and its Western power will continue to do everything they can to see that the truth about the tragedy of flight MH17 does not surface anytime soon. "It's possible that others who could shed light on this matter will be 'silenced' in one way or another. So I don't think we will learn the truth any time soon.
I would like to recall, for example, that all matters related to the flight of Rudolf Hess to Britain [in 1941] remain classified to the British people for 100 years. And I think that the circumstances of the airliner will be made known only when the urgency of the matter disappears," the observer said.
EXCLUSIVE: Kiev 'Turned Blind Eye to Lives of 298 People Aboard MH17'
On July 17, 2014, a Malasyia Airlines Boeing 777 flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur crashed outside the city of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people onboard.Kiev blamed the crash on the Donbass independence fighters, who countered by saying they did not have the means to bring down an aircraft flying at such a high altitude.
An inquiry by Dutch investigators concluded that the Boeing was shot down by a Buk missile system, which it alleged was delivered to the militia from Russia and then sent back. Moscow slammed the inquiry's bias, saying that the investigators' conclusions were based exclusively on information received from the Ukrainian side.
A separate investigation by Almaz-Antei, maker of the Buk system, concluded that the Boeing was shot down from territory controlled by the Ukrainian military.
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Mar 19, 2018 | news.yandex.ru
The former Ukrainian pilot Vladislav Voloshin, suspected of attacking Boeing 777 of Malaysia Airlines, committed suicide. This was reported by the police of the Mykolayiv region. A retired military pilot killed himself at his home.
https://russian.rt.com/ussr/news/493702-ukraina-samoubiistvo-podozrevaemyi-mh17
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Because of low-altitude operation, very vulnerable for MANPADS as was seen in the Afghan War. That's the reason the Soviets designed the Su-39, a two seater for more versatile missions on the battlefield.
Su-25 is designed for low-altitude close air aupport to suppress enemy armor and anti-aircraft weapons
June 18, 2012 by John M. GuilfoilSukhoi's Su-25 is a versatile, ugly, tough attack jet similar in purpose to the American A-10 Thunderbolt.
The Su-25 is not a standoff, long-range missile truck. It is designed for low-altitude suppression of enemy armor and anti-aircraft weapons, and it has been an effective and dependable workhorse of many air forces for more than 30 years. More than 1,000 have been built, and few have ever been confirmed to have crashed. (Many have been lost in combat, of course, and a Russian Air Force Su-25 was accidentally shot down by its wingman near Vladivostok in 2008.)
The Su-25 is meant to travel slowly through a battlefield to engage ground targets with guns, rockets, bombs and missiles at close range from 11 external hardpoints. It has heavily armored and can withstand direct hits while remaining operational.
...
The Su-25 did not have any combat success during the Persian Gulf War, with the plane's only combat action coming when two were shot down quickly by American F-15Cs. By 1998 Iraq was still reported to have 12 Su-25s. Three Su-25K export craft were seen in a demonstration over Baghdad in 2002, but the Su-25 has not been used by Iraq since the 2003 invasion by the American-led coalition.Today, the Frogfoot remains in active service in no fewer than 20 air forces including the Peruvian Air Force, which has conducted successful drug interdictions with the Su-25, and the Ukrainian Air Force, which operates dozens of Su-25s.
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" click for more info
Sukhoi Su-25 Frogfoot - The Soviet Union's Tank-BusterThe Su-25 and Su-28 single-seat, close-support aircraft, known by the Nato reporting name Frogfoot, is manufactured by the Sukhoi Design Bureau Joint Stock Company, based in Moscow, and the Novosibirsk Aircraft Production Association of Novosibirsk, Russia.
The Su-25 is designed to defeat small mobile and stationary ground targets and to engage low-speed air targets at the forward edge and in the nearest tactical and operational depth.
Cockpit
The aircraft has an all-welded, 24mm titanium alloy cockpit with transparent windscreen armour block to protect the pilot. It is equipped with a single K-36L Zvezda ejection seat.
Weapons
The wings have ten pylons for carrying a range of air-to-air and air-to-ground weapon systems selected for the mission. Air-to-ground missiles include Kh-23 (Nato codename AS-7 Kerry), Kh-25ML (AS-10 Karen) and Kh-29l (AS-14 Kedge). The air-to-air missiles carried on the smaller outboard pylons are the R-3S (AA-2D Atoll) and the R-60 (AA-8 Aphid).
The aircraft can be fitted with UB-32A pods for 57mm S-5 rockets, B-8M1 pods for 80mm S-8 rockets, S-24 240mm guided rockets and S-25 330mm guided rockets.
The Su-25 can be armed with 350kg-670kg laser-guided bombs, 500kg incendiary devices and cluster bombs.
The aircraft's twin-barrel gun, the 30mm AO-17A, is installed in the underside of the fuselage on the port side. The gun is armed with 250 rounds of ammunition and is capable of firing at a burst rate of 3,000 rounds a minute. SPPU-22 gun pods can also be installed on the underwing pylons. The pods carry the GSh-23 23mm twin-barrel guns, each with 260 rounds of ammunition.
Targeting
The aircraft is equipped with an integrated navigation and aiming system, including ASP-17 BTs-8 gun / bomb sight with an AKS-750s camera installed in the nose. The nose also houses a Klyon PS laser ranger and target designator, manufactured by the Urals Optical and Mechanical Plant (YOM3).
Warfare.ru: U-25 Frogfoot Close support/ground attack - Ceiling, m: 10'000
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March 2010 Ukraine's MoD passed 2 versions Russian build Su-25 M1 into service, modernized Su25 equipped with updated devices with improved fighting performance by state-owned МиГремонт [MiGremont enterprise, Zaporozhye].
A contract for upgrading additional 40 Su-25 by 2012 done by Ukrainian MoD's Aircraft Repair Plants. Test flights performed on the UAF State Testing Center area 'Chauda.'
The Georgian Su-25 KM 'Scorpion' aircraft, upgraded in joint venture Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing with Israel's Elbit Systems, performed superior in 2008 war with Russia.
○ MiGremont, Zaporozhye State Aviation Repair Factory
○ Sukhoi Su-25 'Frogfoot' Fighter/Bomber
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Air-to-air missile Vympel R-60 NATO code AA-8 Aphid
Guidance: Infra-red (heat-seeking)
Warhead: 9.4 kg (20.8lb) annular blast-fragmentationSpec sheet courtesy Kancho's Paper Wings.
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The AIM-9 Sidewinder is a supersonic, heat-seeking, air-to-air missile. It has a high-explosive warhead and a passive infrared guidance system. It is used by a variety of Western fixed-wing combat aircraft and helicopters, and has been adopted for surface-to-air use as the Chaparral missile.
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I'm certain from the fragmentation pattern evidenced in the parts of the fusilage on the wreckage, a conclusion can be drawn which type of warhead caused the Boeing-777 flight MH-17 crash. The Buk missile with proximity fuze is quite different from an air-to-air heat-seeking R-60 warhead. The Sidewinder targets an engine, destroys it causing immediate DANGER alarms in the cockpit. An engine lost and decompression of the cabine and cockpit may still not be fatal.
The Buk missile was used against Antonov transport planes [AN-12 turboprop] and Su fighter jets of the Ukrainina Air Force. At a much lower altitude 21,300 feet (pressurized Antonov), eight men managed to jump to safety by parachute, two died in crash.
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13.4.2.2 Fragment Flight. The fragments of a warhead travel outward in a nearly perpendicular direction to the surface of its casing (for a cylindrical warhead there is a 7- to 10-degree lead angle). Figure 13-7 portrays a typical fragmentation pattern. The tail and nose spray are frequently referred to separately as the "forty-five degree cone," which is an area of less dense fragmentation. If this payload were to be detonated in flight, the dense side spray would have a slight forward thrust with an increased velocity equal to missile flight velocity.
The angle of the side spray in figure 13-7 would be defined as the beam width of this fragmenting payload. Fragment beam width is defined as the angle covered by a useful density of fragments. Beam width is a function of warhead shape and the placement of the detonator(s) in the explosive charge.
The latest air target warheads are designed to emit a narrow beam of high-velocity fragments. This type of warhead, called an annular Blast Fragmentation warhead (ABF) [U.S. patent 3490374 A], has a fragmentation pattern that propagates out in the form of a ring with tremendous destructive potential. A newer type of fragmentation warhead is the Selectively Aimable Warhead (SAW). This "smart" warhead is designed to aim its fragment density at the target. This is accomplished by the fuzing system telling the warhead where the target is located and causing it to detonate so as to maximize the energy density on the target.
13.4.2.3 Fragment Material. The damage produced by a fragment with a certain velocity depends upon the mass of the fragment. It is therefore necessary to know the approximate distribution of mass for the fragments large enough to cause damage. Mass dis-tribution of payload fragments is determined by means of a static detonation in which the fragments are caught in sand pits. In naturally fragmenting payloads where no attempt to control frag-ment size and number is made, fragmentation may randomly vary from fine, dust-like particles to large pieces. Modern warheads use scored casings and precut fragments to ensure a large damage volume. See figures 13-8 and 13-9.
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[ET Moderation TechnologyTM]
We have already had Haisenko.
You are adding nothing by this (yet again huge copy-paste job) post, but to insinuate that Haisenko's claims are enlightening.
Poring over selected photographs in order to demonstrate "facts" was exactly the kind of source of endless dispute (in that case, re 9/11) that made us decide on ET not to admit conspiracy theories in our field of discussion. That has been constant ET policy for years, as shown in the Editorial Guidelines.
Please stop posting CT, or the posts will be removed.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 13th, 2014 at 02:03:50 AM PDT
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I provided the extra insight in reading comprehension and technical performance of the Su-25 Frogfoot.
If you read his article carefully, you will find Haisenko does not base his technical specs on Wikipedia, he does mention the data has been altered.
Peter Haisenko based his information on two sources:"If you go to the trouble of broadening your knowledge by questioning a specialist book, you'll get completely different information: the maximum flight altitude of the SU 25 is 14,600 meters.
Check here: http://www.fliegerweb.com/militaer/flugzeuge/lexikon.php?show=lexikon-50"and the handbook "Flugzeuge der Welt" by W. Green (1984).
I see the data in the flieger web lexicon has been altered this month, via WayBackMachine archive I find the following:
Per August 2:
Dienstgipfelhöhe: 14'600 mAltered as follows ...
Per August 6: Dienstgipfelhöhe: Maximale Einsatzhöhe: 7.500m, Maximal erreichte Höhe (flight test) 14.600 mI have secured images with a screenshot.
My post linked the Haidenko info as follows, as usual I add links to support the argument. You see I already deduced the data of 14,600 m would be during a test flight. The alteration proved my assumption as correct.
Maximum flight altitude Su-25The handbook "Flugzeuge der Welt" by W. Green (1984) , a standard work which essentially quotes the facts of the military "Janes Manuals" (also used to be NATO reference), already 1984 determined the maximum flight altitude of SU 25 (SU 25 MK, export version) with 10,670 meters (page 208 f.).
Warfare.ru: U-25 Frogfoot close air support/ground attack - Ceiling, 10'000 meter
German's flieger web lexicon states maximum flight altitude reached is 14,600 meters [test flight].
As you see, I have added a third source warfare.ru and have thoroughly provided information of the operational design of the Su-25 Frogfoot. Re: Bringing Back Memories of dKos Blog Police (none / 1)
I can't believe what an Atlanticist, Russophobic trash heap EuroTrib has become.
And many people there - like Frank Schnittger, who has a recent diary about MH17 - have the same delusion that the mainstream Western press is also under, that such a thing as a Ukrainian nation still exists.
It seems that no one there is aware that the western Ukraine is completely zombified there with a manic Russophobia.
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by Demian on Wed Aug 13th, 2014 at 07:29:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]I checked the cached webpages Su-25 of flugzeuginfo.net from August 6, 2011 through October 2013, this spec has not been altered.
Suchoi / Sukhoi Su-25 Fighter / BomberThe Sukhoi Su-25 is a twin-engined single-seat ground-attack jet aircraft developed by the Soviet Design Bureau Sukhoi.
" click for more info
Photo: Max Bryansky (foxbat.ru)Crew 1
Propulsion 2 Turbojet Engines
Engine Model Tumanski / Tumansky R-195Sn
Engine Power (each) 44,2 kN 9937 lbfSpeed 950 km/h 513 kts 590 mph
Service Ceiling 10.000 m 32.808 ft
Range 900 km 486 NM 559 mi.Empty Weight 9.500 kg 20.944 lbs
max. Takeoff Weight 20.500 kg 45.194 lbsData is based on info weblink Sukhoi Company (JSC)
Info from my earlier source:
Oxygen systemDream On!
The oxygen system is intended for supplying oxygen to pilot at the heights more than 2000 m both in the cab and with the ejection. Oxygen system includes two subsystems: main (onboard) and oxygen system of ejection seat. Onboard system is fed of four balloons with a capacity of 5 l each (storage pressure 15 mpa)), placed on the wall of the niche of the nose strut of chassis. The mixture of air and oxygen will be given at the heights from 2000 to 7000 m the oxygen mask of pilot, above 7000 m - pure oxygen. Emergency oxygen system BKO-EVE ensures the supply of oxygen during three minutes after ejection, system is included by hand or automatically.by Oui on Wed Aug 13th, 2014 at 08:28:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
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Yes, Uke propagandists were making much of the operational ceiling of the SU-25. They are reflexive liars: when faced with something that points to barbarism on the part of the their junta, say the first confabulation that comes into their head, as Russophobic as possible. In a discussion of the apparent bullet holes in the MH17 cockpit at Wikipedia, one "editor" said that the rebels could have put those bullet holes in.
This is a main reason why I think Novorossiya will win: a culture which is built on non-stop lying is not likely to be very functional, when it comes to war, as to anything else.
BTW, EuroTrib should be renamed to "Atlanticist Tribune".
by Demian on Wed Aug 13th, 2014 at 09:29:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
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July 30, 2014 | Global Research/anderweltonline.com
The tragedy of Malaysian MH 017 continues to elude any light of clarity being cast over it.
The flight recorders are in England and are evaluated. What can come of it? Maybe more than you would assume.
Especially the voice recorder will be interesting when you look at the picture of a cockpit fragment. As an expert in aviation I closely looked at the images of the wreckage that are circulating on the Internet.
First, I was amazed at how few photos can be found from the wreckage with Google. All are in low resolution, except one: The fragment of the cockpit below the window on the pilots side. This image, however, is shocking. In Washington, you can now hear views expressed of a "potentially tragic error / accident" regarding MH 017. Given this particular cockpit image it does not surprise me at all.
Entry and exit impact holes of projectiles in the cockpit area
Source for all photos: Internet
I recommend to click on the little picture to the left. You can download this photo as a PDF in good resolution. This is necessary, because that will allow you understand what I am describing here. The facts speak clear and loud and are beyond the realm of speculation: The cockpit shows traces of shelling! You can see the entry and exit holes. The edge of a portion of the holes is bent inwards. These are the smaller holes, round and clean, showing the entry points most likely that of a 30 millimeter caliber projectile. The edge of the other, the larger and slightly frayed exit holes showing shreds of metal pointing produced by the same caliber projectiles. Moreover, it is evident that at these exit holes of the outer layer of the double aluminum reinforced structure are shredded or bent – outwardly! Furthermore, minor cuts can be seen, all bent outward, which indicate that shrapnel had forcefully exited through the outer skin from the inside of the cockpit. The open rivets are are also bent outward.
In sifting through the available images one thing stands out: All wreckage of the sections behind the cockpit are largely intact, except for the fact that only fragments of the aircraft remained . Only the cockpit part shows these peculiar marks of destruction. This leaves the examiner with an important clue. This aircraft was not hit by a missile in the central portion. The destruction is limited to the cockpit area. Now you have to factor in that this part is constructed of specially reinforced material. This is on account of the nose of any aircraft having to withstand the impact of a large bird at high speeds. You can see in the photo, that in this area significantly stronger aluminum alloys were being installed than in the remainder of the outer skin of the fuselage. One remembers the crash of Pan Am over Lockerbie. It was a large segment of the cockpit that due to the special architecture survived the crash in one piece. In the case of flight MH 017 it becomes abundantly clear that there also an explosion took place inside the aircraft.
Tank destroying mix of ammunition
Bullet holes in the outer skin
So what could have happened? Russia recently published radar recordings, that confirm at least one Ukrainian SU 25 in close proximity to MH 017. This corresponds with the statement of the now missing Spanish controller 'Carlos' that has seen two Ukrainian fighter aircraft in the immediate vicinity of MH 017. If we now consider the armament of a typical SU 25 we learn this: It is equipped with a double-barreled 30-mm gun, type GSh-302 / AO-17A, equipped with: a 250 round magazine of anti-tank incendiary shells and splinter-explosive shells (dum-dum), arranged in alternating order. The cockpit of the MH 017 has evidently been fired at from both sides: the entry and exit holes are found on the same fragment of it's cockpit segment!
Now just consider what happens when a series of anti-tank incendiary shells and splinter-explosive shells hit the cockpit. These are after all designed to destroy a modern tank. The anti-tank incendiary shells partially traversed the cockpit and exited on the other side in a slightly deformed shape. (Aviation forensic experts could possibly find them on the ground presumably controlled by the Kiev Ukrainian military; the translator). After all, their impact is designed to penetrate the solid armor of a tank. Also, the splinter-explosive shells will, due to their numerous impacts too cause massive explosions inside the cockpit, since they are designed to do this. Given the rapid firing sequence of the GSh-302 cannon, it will cause a rapid succession of explosions within the cockpit area in a very short time. Remeber each of these is sufficient to destroy a tank.
What "mistake" was actually being committed – and by whom?
Graze on the wing
Because the interior of a commercial aircraft is a hermetically sealed pressurized chamber, the explosions will, in split second, increase the pressure inside the cabin to extreme levels or breaking point. An aircraft is not equipped for this, it will burst like a balloon. This explains a coherent scenario. The largely intact fragments of the rear sections broke in mid air at the weaker points of construction most likely under extreme internal air pressure. The images of the widely scattered field of debris and the brutally damaged segment of cockpit fit like hand in glove. Furthermore, a wing segment shows traces of a grazing shot, which in direct extension leads to the cockpit. Interestingly, I found that both the high-resolution photo of the fragment of bullet riddled cockpit as well as the segment of grazed wing have in the meantime disappeared from Google Images. One can find virtually no more pictures of the wreckage, except the well known smoking ruins.
If you listen to the voices from Washington now who speak of a "potentially tragic error / accident", all that remains is the question of what might have been the nature of this "mistake" perpetrated here. I am not given to hover long in the realm of speculation, but would like to invite others to consider the following : The MH 017 looked similar in it's tricolor design to that that of the Russian President's plane. The plane with President Putin on board was at the same time "near" Malaysia MH 017. In aviation circles "close" would be considered to be anywhere between 150 to 200 miles. Also, in this context we might consider the deposition of Ms. Tymoshenko, who wanted to shoot President Putin with a Kalashnikov.
But that this remains pure speculation. The shelling of the cockpit of air Malaysia MH 017, however, is definitely not speculation.
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Aug 4, 2014 | vineyardsaker.blogspot.com
First, a disclaimer: I am not a pilot nor an air traffic controller, and I never served with air defense units. I did spend some time with an airforce, but my role was one of electronic intercept analysis. So what follows are just the musings of an uninformed amateur. Caveat emptor.
What I will try to do here is present a possible scenario which takes into account the basic facts established so far. Here goes:
The plan was for the Ukies to shoot down the MH17 using a totally inappropriate aircraft: the Su-25, which is a "tree hugging" close air support aircraft. Why? After all, the Ukies do have some Mig-29s and even some Su-27, but these are much fewer in number and much easier to track. A few of them have been seen in the skies over Novorussia, but only rarely. In contrast, the Su-25 has been a ever-present presence in the skies ever since the conflict began. Some say that the Su-25 cannot fly over 7'000m. That is not true. The problem is that it's cockpit is not pressurized, but the airframe itself has powerful engines which can bring the aircraft well over 10'000m. All the pilot would need is some good warm clothing and an oxygen mask. No, the big drawback of sending the Su-25 so high is that it's engines are not designed to be used at that altitude and that it will not be able to fly fast enough to catch-up with a cruising Boeing. But what if the Su-25 carried a missile?
Turns out that the Su-25 can carry the R-60 air-to-air missile which can fly at over 3'000km per hour and thus easily catch up with a cruising airliner. So the Su-25+R-60 combination has a flight envelope which is sufficient to attack a Boeing.
There is something else that the Su-25 lacks to function has an interceptor: a radar. Well, this is not quite true, the Su-25 has a radar, but it is designed for navigation, not air-to-air combat. However, the R-60 missile does not need a radar, it has its own infrared homing warhead. So if the pilot of the Su-25 can point his aircraft in the general direction of a heat emitting target, and if that target is not too fast or too far away, the R-60 will be able to lock on to it and close in. The R-60 is a pretty small missile with a short range, under 8'000m, but it so happens that that Russian radar operators reported the Su-25 at about 3-5'000m from MH17.
Still, it is not easy to visually acquire the correct aircraft from the cockpit of a Su-25, then get within the correct range and then fire. There are clouds, sunlight, other aircraft. And the Su-25 has no air-to-air radar with a search and track mode. So what could the Ukies have done? Provided another radar?
In comes the 3 BukM1 transporter erector launcher and radar (TELAR) and the at least one early warning (long range) radar which all had just been moved in the day before MH17 was shot down, and then immediately withdrawn. The radars of each Buk TELAR and the long range early warning radar whose signal have been detected by the Russians could have easily guided the Su-25 to its target, either by a encrypted datalink or even by radio commands.
Combining all of the above, here is my totally primitive and possibly completely mistaken hypothesis:
The Ukies guided the Su-25 to MH17 by using the Buk radar capabilities. As soon as he was in reach, the SU-25 fire a R-60 missile which hit one of the two engines. At this point, the MH17 sharply turned to one side and lost altitude (the hit engine would lose power and its drag would sharply pull the Boeing to one side). The Su-25 then easily closed in and opened fire with his cannon, which has a range of 4'000m, shredding the cockpit and cabin with 30mm rounds. Had the pilot of the Su-25 failed to catch with MH17 or if the R-60 missile had failed, the Buks on the ground were ready to shoot, but they probably did not have to. Once MH17 was clearly destroyed, the pilot of the Su-25 could have easily landed anywhere in the Ukraine without drawing any attention.
This was a good plan, but it failed to take into account the sharp turn made by MH17 which instead of continuing on its path towards Russia turned around and fell into a contested by Resistance-controlled field.
One more thing: if my hypothesis is correct and the first impact on MH17 was from a rather small R-60 missile (3kg warhead) into an engine, the flight deck did probably not suffer an immediate and catastrophic depressurization. If so, the pilots would have had the time to report an explosion. This is why the recordings of the Kiev ATC were seized by the SBU and why the result of the analysis of the flight recorders takes so much time: the Empire needs to wipe away the recording of the pilots' last words. Conversely, if MH17 had been destroyed by a BukM1 missile (70kg warhead) the depressurization would have been immediate and catastrophic.
The problem with wiping the flight recorders is that if the pilots had the time to send a mayday then it would have been recorded not only by the USA and Russia, but by at least two more West European countries. Even if the latter would comply with the US orders, the Americans are probably terrified that the Russians have the recordings of the MH17's mayday and they are probably trying to negotiate a deal with Russia. If not, they need to carefully prepare the public opinion by, for example, organizing careful leaks through the Dutch and Malaysian press to say that nothing was recorded in order to denounce any recording presented by Russia as a "fake". All of this is, again, pure speculation on my part.
Ok, now please feel free to tear this hypothesis into shreds. These are just the musings of an amateur and most definitely not an expert opinion. I submit it only as a basis for discussion.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Anonymous james said...
You account for many of the known facts, Saker, including the presence of the Buk missiles and the use of their radar but without them being fired.
But if the Ukies expected the airliner to continue into Russian airspace, then that would have given the Russians possession of the black boxes which would have been a problem for the US and the Ukies.
As it was, the Malaysians were conned into handing them over to the Dutch who handed them to the British as planned (without telling the Malaysians that beforehand, of course)
Sasha said...
AnonymousI think you're close to the mark - especially concerning the "mayday" recording (if it exists). Very good chance that the truth will never be revealed, as the Russians may well use their knowledge to "bargain" with the Americans vis a vis a variety of issues, rather than make it public and squander a lovely opportunity for leverage. I'm not under any illusion that the Russian side is above and beyond using the Novorussians as a strategic chip in a much larger game, short term consequences be damned. Putin plays the long game, while the Americans are perhaps prisoners of their "instant gratification" culture. I don't know much about anything, but I'm fairly sure that what we're privy to in the MSM as well as the "alternative" is just the tip of an iceberg, and beneath the surface, channels of communication are open, offers and counter-offers are being made, and if a burial of the truth serves a longer term strategic interest, it will be buried indeed.
Might be very tricky in this case, as their are many non-State actors that are privy to the details. How to keep them silent?
According to Robert Parry, US Intelligence is starting to narrow in on the conclusion that the Ukranian army was responsible, and that they might have been trying to kill Putin:Anonymous"If the U.S. intelligence analysts are correct – that the rebels and Russia are likely not responsible – the chief remaining suspect would be the Ukrainian government, which does possess Buk anti-aircraft missiles and reportedly had two fighter jets in the vicinity of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 at the time of the shoot-down.
Some independent analyses of the initial evidence from the crash site suggest the jetliner may have been destroyed by an air-to-air attack, not by an anti-aircraft missile fired from the ground. Yet, the working hypothesis of the U.S. intelligence analysts is that a Ukrainian military Buk battery and the jetfighters may have been operating in collusion as they hunted what they thought was a Russian airliner, possibly even the plane carrying President Vladimir Putin on a return trip from South America, the source said.
...
The Los Angeles Times article on the briefing took note of the uncertainties: "U.S. intelligence agencies have so far been unable to determine the nationalities or identities of the crew that launched the missile. U.S. officials said it was possible the SA-11 [the Buk anti-aircraft missile] was launched by a defector from the Ukrainian military who was trained to use similar missile systems."
That reference to a possible "defector" may have been an attempt to reconcile the U.S. government's narrative with the still-unreleased satellite imagery of the missile battery controlled by soldiers appearing to wear Ukrainian uniforms. But I'm now told that U.S. intelligence analysts have largely dismissed the "defector" possibility and are concentrating on the scenario of a willful Ukrainian shoot-down of the plane, albeit possibly not knowing its actual identity."
They blame it on low level figures in the army and say the national government didn't know, but that could be bullshit. If re-routing Flight 17 really WAS because of weather, it might explain the army's mistake. They thought only Putin's plane would be in the area. It'd also explain why they used an SU-25 instead of a MIG: diverting an interceptor to an area where there was no enemy air force would have drawn scrutiny from higher ups.
http://consortiumnews.com/2014/08/03/flight-17-shoot-down-scenario-shifts/
Larchmonter445Saker
There is a couple of other things that have been reported on that you missed that may or may not affect your hypothesis. I have a slightly different idea of what might have happened taking those into account.Carlos (the ATC) wrote that a couple of Ukrainian aircraft were near the airliner when it disappeared, but he didn't say how near. My guess those aircraft were shadowing MH17 and perhaps passing the location data on to the Su-25 flying low down below the airliner. A MiG-29 or Su-27 could easily track an airliner from dozens of miles away. Maybe they told the Su-25 pilot when to "pop up" and run his attack?
The other thing is the attacking Su-25 "popped up" in front of, and probably somewhat below the airliner. That means the cockpit of the airliner could have been sprayed with shrapnel from an incoming R-60, or two, and or it could have been hit from the Su-25's 30mm cannon. But at 3-4 km, an airliner cockpit is a rather small target to reliably hit with cannon.
It's my guess the Su-25 was stationed so as to intercept MH17's flight path and was being directed by the shadowing fighters, or ground control, or both. At the right moment, the Su-25 was instructed to gain altitude, so as to come up in front and below the airliner, and out of sight from the latter's cockpit. Once in the firing position, the Su-25 fired 2 R-60 misiles, which exploded close enough to both an engine and the cockpit (these missiles are proximity fused). This killed the aircrew and damaged one of the engines, causing the aircraft to skew off course, while beginning to break up.
It depends on what is found to have damaged the airliner, shrapnel or cannon shells. So far I've only heard speculation, so I don't think it's been discovered yet. As the ZPC/NWO are no longer interested in seriously investigating the crash site, they obviously know what downed the airliner and that if that information reached the rest of the world, they would be busted for the crime.
I think if MH17's pilots had time to get out a mayday, it would have been reported by somebody, especially by the Russians, since that would preempt monkey business with the cockpit recorder later.
вот так
The Malaysians are complicit in all the chicanery. They showed just how pathetic they were for four months of "search" for their other plane.james@wpcMost governments involved in this investigation are tools of the U.S. Netherlands, Australia, the Ukies, the Maylays, the OSCE clowns, all of them are tools. Just like the media covering them and reading the daily handouts.
What is already clear from the disparate reports on the ground is that the plane contains the truth in the large pieces. They have been photographed so even if the Ukies manage to shell the area, the necessary evidence is captured.
What is startling to me is that the Russians have not been seen at the location. Their group is waiting on Netherlands approval. That's quite interesting.
The Russians have plenty of recordings of radars, electronics and air traffic, civilian and military, to knit together the "event".
We also know that the Russians immediately sent in experts to the crash site in hours. So they must have recorded everything an investigation would need to reach a scientific analysis.
But it all does not matter. It can't be blamed on the Russians or the militia. And it won't be blamed on the Ukies until the war is over.
This investigation will be two years in the making.
What matters is winning the war and destroying Ukraine, Kiev and the entire destabilization project to cripple Russia's development.
As another amateur, I would think that all twin engined planes are designed to fly adequately on one engine. With one engine on fire, I would think the pilot's automatic reaction would be to head fro the nearest airstrip it could land on and request permission to land. It would also lose as much height as possible without endangering the plane's ability to reach the airport. This would bring it within the operational height of the Su-25 in any case allowing for cannon fire to the cockpit.>AnonymousIf he nearest airport was within Ukrainian territory, then it is reasonable for the US to expect the airplane to do a 180 degree turn as it did and not proceed into Russian airspace.
So fellow amateur sleuths out there, where is the nearest airport to the where the airliner was attacked with the missile to its engine? In Russia or Ukraine?
@James,james@wpcProposing a plausinle explaination to your observation "But if the Ukies expected the airliner to continue into Russian airspace, then that would have given the Russians possession of the black boxes which would have been a problem for the US and the Ukies."
It may well have been to frame the story in such a way as to discredit any/all investigations and analysis by the RF that would be used to directly imply that the findings were rigged to cover their "crime". This would have been a very easy "sell" to an already captive demographic that has been sold a steady flow of anti-Putin propaganda. We might call it framing the frame, or something to that effect. Just a thought to ponder...
Anon @ 04 August, 2014 04:14AnonymousGood point but I think the CIA would be more comfortable if they had possession of the black boxes from the start. See my subsequent comment @ 04:11
Where-Wolf,American KulakYour comment nt may have hit the nail on the head. Those that have theblood of the First Nations flowing through their veins understand that "we" are the culmination all of the experiences of our ancesgors. Deep inside all of us that haven't been assimilated, thus not infected by the contaminated anglo-zio bloodline, realize this wisdom and knowledge. It is quite difficult to traverse amongst them for this very reason and why they have systematically attempted to exterminate all clans and tribes for the past few centuries. Flashback to the War of 1812 and you'll find the answers via the words and deeds of the Great Chief Tecumseh and his Confederacy. A true visionary that understood the enemy and that we all have a common bond. The divide and conquer strategy only works, if we allow it to do so. As long as we keep fighting the good fight there will be a time when the illegitimate species will become extinct, one way or another, as they have surpassed their best before date...
" Larchmonter445 said @ 04 August, 2014 04:04"the pessimistI can only add to this Saker readers, that I noticed on Twitter today (I am trying to read Tweets about Ukraine less, but still) that some pro-Kiev Twitter accounts were arguing that the rebels had shot up the cockpit after the crash to make it LOOK like 30 mike mike cannon fire from a Su-25. This is interesting and I would imagine 'Russians tampered with the black box before separatists handed them over' or 'a Ukrainian unit went rogue under GRU control shot it down' are both Empire propaganda talking points being prepared...just in case adverse evidence comes out. You never know, someone on the Dutch or Australian investigator teams COULD have a conscience attack. Even on the BBC World Service early Sunday morning as I was listening in the wee small hours Stateside, the elderly father of one of the Lockerbie bombing victims was talking about how that investigation's results were tainted and manipulated.
My first thought was WOW someone at the BBC World Service perhaps was slipping a hint 'between the lines', or they simply didn't anticipate what this elderly fellow would say about US/UK government manipulation of the Lockerbie crash site and it got through the usual editorial filters.
And that three parter by WereWolf about growing up Croat-Yugoslav in Canada was beautiful. I will try to abstain from the term 'Ukies' and simply pray more, regroup, recharge. It is not an accident I stopped posting here for a while. But it is good to be back and yes we must see things at the true level of battle above governments and NWO globalist oligarchs, at the level of 'powers and principalities'. Satans' minions have been busy in Ukraine as well as Gaza and Syria.
It is no accident that the 'Azov Battalion' not only uses the Wolfsangel runes of the 2nd SS Das Reich division, they also use Die Schwarz Sonne or Black Sun of the pre-WWI and WWII Theosophic cults that preceded and hailed the coming Third Reich.
From RT:>Anonymous"....Preliminary examination of flight MH17's cockpit voice recorder (CVR) revealed "nothing out of the ordinary," a source close to the international investigation told the New Sunday Times.
The data refers to the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch downloaded communications between the Malaysia Airlines' pilot and an unspecified person with an air traffic controller (ATC), the publication reports.
"So far, from what the team has heard, there was nothing unusual. The last voice heard was not the pilot's. No, there was no indication that the pilots saw or sensed anything off," the source said.
MH17 disaster:Federal Air Transport Agency's questions to Ukraine
Asked about the Ukrainian government's Monday statement that the airliner was brought down by "a massive explosive decompression," the source said such conclusions, so far have been "unconfirmed."
The Dutch Safety Board (DSB), which is heading the investigation into the crash, was puzzled by statements coming from Kiev. According to DSB spokeswoman Sara Vernooij, the "premature" release of details of MH17 black boxes is "not in the best interest of the investigation."
The publication points out it remains unclear if the team had secured the recordings from the Ukrainian air traffic controllers to match the conversations between the ATC staff and the MH17 flight crew.
..."
http://rt.com/news/177708-nato-exerting-pressure-mh17/@James,AnonymousPoint well taken. One thing that seems certain is that there are conflicting forces working within the seeEYEeh that may be counter productive to the "official" narrative. From some of our contacts and sources it would seem as if there are small rogue elements that are warring internally as well as with the enESeh. Their internal war is causing great friction as the battle to control the US Military Industrial Complex has entered a stage of multi-mission creep that seems to be setting the stage for something big Stateside as well as the other 4-Eyes. Maybe massive regime change or worse, misguided civil wars and the resulting chaos that would follow. Whomever wins the prize would determine the fate of whatever remains of humanity.
There is a lot of hoax going on trying to get people to believe this or that and to cast doubt so as to throw any semblance of truth.RootmanBut I got to wonder, What is up with the photo-shopping the extra window on MH17.. We already know Reuters doctors their news. Seen it with Iran (erasing israel from the map) and having their interview with the vostok militia commander to place blame on the cossacks as having a working buk missile system that came from Russia!
Malaysia is also on the cross hairs of the US and Israel, which condemned Israel as guilty of war crimes. Is also a muslin nation. Is also trying to negotiate with China on the South China sea demarcation problems. All of which means if they were not needed as leverage against china they would be ready for regime change and a lot of pressure is being put on them. The old PM was pretty bad in openly saying how things looked. And he still says a few words now and then. Not on very good terms with imperial ambitions or slaughter. But rather a pretty powerless nation among a whole bunch of them in the area. Exporting palm oil to russia in exchange for fighter jets.We dont know all what is going on other the the Empire is going ape! We cant even get real news from Russian sources. They still mostly use MSM as a basis for their reporting which is always doctored or slanted. Everyone in the entire world uses it the same way hence it is only necessary to control the major outlets that agencies use as their sources.
As a layperson, I keep it with 2 hypotheses:Anonymous1) the resistance did it by mistake (the mainstream opinion) This would lead to a shared guilt by dome resistance fighters and the Ukie traffic control
2)A Ukie false flag
Suspicion goes more and more to Ukraine/ US false flag, as they hold back any data. Even if they come up with some data later, their credibility is questionable, since their track record.
The advantage is of not being framed as a conspiracy theorist.
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Same is true in many circles about 9-11. One can discuss this, but not use it as an argument in another topic.
Yellowstone vulcano predictions should also really be left to trained geologists.
It depends very much on audience. on forums I have seen people being framed and served off, the moment they go slighly controversial, off mainstream.
In western Europe nowadays this is even the case, the moment zionism is mentioned: an army of hasbara blowflies descends on you, and most of the time the comment is never placed.
This is becoming a real difficulty, and a severe restriction of free speech.
The RT approach works best: question everything, be truthful and respectable; correct the moment it is found out a mistake has been made.
The past week an incredible favor to Israel has been made by a small minority of wahabi sympathisants of ISIS, by their (slightly) provocative behavior in Gaza demonstrations.
It turned a large portion of Dutch people back pro Israel, and made the blowflies green of envy (but even more active).
Anonymous Where-Wolf - Respect to you.Anonymous
Yes. The nature of 'consciousness' is quantum ... and there are many millions of us reaching the 'Hundredth Monkey' mark against a miniscule malevolent minority.
I remember hearing of studies along the lines that 3% of a group will affect the next conscious 10% - and that threshold is enough to draw the unconscious masses to the 13% point of view.
Whatever the science may be - the (dis)information aspect of current warfare never more virulent, but equally, never more instantly disputable.
Another aspect I'm finding so much more powerful than time of e.g. Yugoslav war : Online translation capability. For the dominance of English speaking world has for too long left western targets voiceless, unheard, mis-translated / manpulated.Where Wolf.les
Very compelling thoughts. Thank you for that.To the Saker:Mr. Pragma
Michael Bociurkiw is the Canadian lead of the OSCE team overseeing the MH17 site. In the following interview he makes an astounding admission to a CBC reporter. It occurs at shortly after 6 minutes into this video. http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-mh17-michael-bociurkiw-talks-about-being-first-at-the-crash-site-1.2721007
Thanks to syrianperspective.com for alerting us to this information, providing pictoral evidence and the following text:
"Bociurkiw (himself of Ukrainian descent) was one of the very first to visit the crash site and conduct an inspection of the wreckage. He has been at the site ever since. What Bociurkiw described in the interview flatly rejects the generally accepted version of Flight MH-17's demise. When asked if he saw anything which suggested how Flight MH-17 was destroyed, Bociurkiw offered this startling revelation:
"There have (sic) been two or three pieces of fuselage that have been really pockmarked with almost looks like machine gun fire, very, very strong machine gun fire that has left these unique marks that we haven't seen anywhere else. We have been asked, for example, have we seen any examples of missile. Well, no we haven't. That's the answer"."
Read more at http://www.syrianperspective.com/2014/08/downing-of-malaysian-air-flight-mh-17-smoking-gun-not-a-missile.html#bkbBfrh1rYqOHYDL.99P.S. given what some previous comments on earlier threads a week or so ago indicated about his background and expected bias, we should make an effort to commend him for his honesty.
I think that sakers reflections contain some interesting elements.Anonymous American Kulak said...I myself have not yet come to a final conclusion other than that, of course, 99,9% certain it was the ukratine regime.
I can, however, introduce some possibly interesting factors:
- This was almost certainly a premeditated attack and not some right sector thugs gone wild. And it seems that relevant usa personel had arrived in kiev not too long before MH017.
Maybe the ukratinians are stupid and incapable but the us-americans are very well experienced in dirty jobs. They must have considered what could give them away as the guilty party and how to avoid that. So, for instance, a type of attack that would *not* allow the pilot the seconds needed to call Mayday.
- *Obviously* the Buk was a setup and an attempt to point fingers at Novorossija. It almost certainly wasn't a Buk that killed MH017.
- The Militia had the black boxes almost certainly for a number of days. And they could strongly assume that the black boxes could - and probably would - be manipulated to point at them.
I'm strongly assuming that Russia had the black boxes and made copies.This is no risk. They could always say that they did it because the situation at the crash site made them fear that evidence might be destroyed, possibly even without bad intent simply by artillery and that they wanted to be absolutely sure that the data were not lost to avoid further grieve for the families.
Why did they not yet show anything? Because they give the usa vassals a big fat opportunity to fake and tamper - and to be trapped. Moreover the mere possibility of Russia having copies might "help" the western inspectors to stay honest.
- The 30 mm cannon version of the story is highly doubtful. Those cannons are not for that kind of job in the Su-25 and it would be very, very difficult to train them on a small target 3 km away.
That version might, however, be attractive as a worst case fall-back for ukratine saying "the Militia has anti-air cannons! And that's how they did it". Of course that's highly irrational but then, being rational isn't an attribute one would think of with the ukratine thugs.
- The Putin version is, Pardon me, utter crap in my minds eyes. For one Putin has not even been flying over Ukraine. Moreover his pilot wouldn't care batshit for ukratine ATC commands. And he needn't to; playing games like, say forcing Putin airplane on a certain course, would be a highly suicidal act. And btw. it's not even in Ukraine's interest because if, just assume for a second, Putins airplane would be downed, someone like Rogosin would act intermediately and you bet that Russia's military would completely destroy and annihilate Ukraine and, being at that, Poland, too.
After killing Putin, not even the usa could be secure anymore. ANYthing could happen.- "Nothing uncommon so far" (on the voice recorder) is almost certainly a fat lie. Because when a missile hits your airplane there's LOTS of noise.
In other words: Ukraine did it and usa/cia was involved and they want to play it à la "Strange thing! We just can't seem to find how MH017 crashed" ...
Funny, funny, if Russia had another version of the voice recording ... Haha
04 August, 2014 06:09@ 04 August, 2014 05:02
Yes, there's undoubtedly infighting inside the US 'Intelligence Community' and the traditional clashing between the State Department and (War) Department of Defense, who ironically seem to have switched their historic roles with the fanatical neocons like Nuland and Pyatt pushing escalation while some in the Pentagon just might be looking for an 'off ramp'.Remember while State's access is limited at to the upper echelons who will can mostly be counted on to keep their mouths shut, DoD has a history of leakage both pre-and-post August 2013 Syria standown. It's the DIA and NSA (and CIA to a lesser extent without the direct translated SIGINT intercepts) who have access to intel revealing the Ukies literally burying their major casualties in the East. For damn sure the mid to upper echelons of the NSA/DIA and their Russian language specialists are privy to all of the screaming phone calls home from encircled Ukie soldiers to their mothers and the Kiev-censored TV stations.
The now-neocon/neolib led State Dept. can pretend this stuff along with the Ukrainian army's FUBAR'd situation on the Russian border in Lugansk oblast don't exist. But the upper to mid-level intel brass in DIA and NSA cannot pretend the US is sending military advisors to Ukraine because victory is imminent.
At the very least, there has to be some nervousness about whether Kiev and the rest of Banderastan will see serious unrest and anti-draft riots. The beat down of Right Sector teenage thugs by Odessa cops may have been delayed payback for Odessa -- at the very least there have to be a few cops who are ashamed their colleagues did nothing as 50+ 'Colorado beetles' were shot, stabbed and beaten to death inside the Trade Unions Building. A few Odessa cops, if not necessarily representative of the police force as a whole, probably decided to teach the Pravy Sektor Nazi larvae a lesson they wouldn't forget at that night club this weekend.
04 August, 2014 06:17
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Andrew said...
Saker:"This whole MH17 incident is a very deep rabbit hole, ...
I would like to point out several issues with all theories to date.
1) Cockpit riddled with bullet holes. The cockpit section offered as evidence is from the back left window. The impacts on this section are too small for a 30mm anti-tank canon. 30 mm = 1-1/4" - these holes are obviously smaller. The 30 mm canon would have shredded the structure with very large holes instead of the precise small round holes seen. Also, the holes are from inside the cockpit, as the edges clearly bend outwards, meaning the impact was on the right side. If the plane was flying west to east at impact, the impact was from the south." ..... http://www.globalresearch.ca/evidence-is-now-conclusive-two-ukrainian-government-fighter-jets-shot-down-malaysian-airlines-mh17-it-was-not-a-buk-surface-to-air-missile/5394814 ..... Evidence Is Now Conclusive: Two Ukrainian Government Fighter-Jets Shot Down Malaysian Airlines MH17. "It was Not a 'Buk' Surface to Air Missile "That's critically important, because no ground-based missile (or shrapnel therefrom) hitting the airliner could possibly have produced firing into the cockpit from both sides of the plane. It had to have been a hail of bullets from both sides, that brought the plane down, in that circumstance.
This is Haisenko's main discovery, by his pointing that out. You can't have projectiles going in both directions - into the left-hand-side fuselage panel from both its left and right sides - unless they are coming at the panel from different directions. Nobody before Haisenko had noticed that the projectiles had ripped through that panel from both its left side and its right side. This is what rules out any ground-fired missile."
06 August, 2014 00:15Anonymous Q said...
The CrimeThe persecution of crime is essential to any culture. Without it there is nothing, no human live is possible because anybody would go paranoid and rather kill his own neighbour before that one has the chance to harm him. A crime of that dimensions is no joke and as it appears to me there is no classic jurisdiction nor any transnational institution which is willing to persecute and judge those responsible. The UN is a disaster and Russia is to much involved as a suspect to be independent, the same of course is true of any NATO country. Any other country will be under enormous pressure of the big ones.
The notion that the truth may never be known is a very dangerous one. But hobby like speculations while well intended are quite counterproductive.As there is no institution we can thrust any longer we have to create our own.
Q
04 August, 2014 13:31
Blogger jo6pac said...
I'm taking time to read comments until later. I think the fighter first fired the 30mm at the cockpit killing the pilots. Then turned and used the missiles. There would be no May Day and the same time a ground launch also hitting the plane. Or I'm wrong what ever. Sad04 August, 2014 13:48
Anonymous Mohamed said...
@ Where-Wolf,The #3 in my above post to you has an error and should read as following:
3. Mankind has been given both intelligence and desire. When a Human controls her/his desire, she/he is better than an Angel. But, when he/she is overcome by desire than he/she is worse than an Animal.
Hope the above make some sense now.
Best regards,Mohamed.
04 August, 2014 13:52
Anonymous Anonymous said...
The Ukrainian military upgraded their SU-25,s to the SU-25M1.The Ukrainian aviation factory in Zaporozhye, undertook the assignment of the modernization of the Ukrainian Su-25 Frogfoot. The project included the reinforcement of structural components, the installment of advanced electronic navigational equipment and a new cockpit with multiple function monitors.
weapons.
30-mm two-barrel cannon GSh-30-2 with 250 rounds.
Warload - 4.000 kg in 10 hardpoints, normal -1.340 kg
8-10 500-,250-kg bombs, 32x 100-kg bombs, napalm tanks
rokets 8-10 ML UB-32-57 (320(252) x 57-mm)
or 8-10 240-mm, packets UR S-5 (57-mm), S-8 (80-mm), S-24 (240-mm) x S-25 (340-mm).
Air-to-air missile, Air-to-surface missile Kh-25ML, Kh-29L and S-25L
SPPU-22 pods with 23-mm cannon GSh-23L with 260 roundshttp://www.redstar.gr/Foto_red/Eng/Aircraft/Su_25M1.html.
04 August, 2014 13:57
Anonymous Anonymous said...
The shameless bootlicking and crawling postures the Dutch have been exhibiting in this matter lends a new meaning to the phrase "The Low Lands".I lost a lot of respect for the Dutch these last few weeks.
04 August, 2014 13:58
Anonymous james@wpc said...
Thanks Dutch.(@ 12:16)I think what you describe would be all pretty predictable as far as the Kiev regime and their US intelligence allies are concerned and so it probably all went according to plan except the plane didn't fall into regime controlled territory though it was probably close.
The Robert Parry article linked by a couple of anon posters is typical CYA stuff for the CIA. Vague date, unnamed sources and no logic pattern. Standard misinformation.
And no, Anon(04 August, 2014 05:02), I don't think it is at all obvious that the CIA is riddled with factions. What we can expect though is lots of different stories leading all over the place. That's their job, after all!
04 August, 2014 14:17
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Been trying to read news on yahoo.. But the comments are full of hitler is Putin and its all putins fault, So the state department is still paying people to post their own version of things. Looks like the US will ratchet up things even more given the chance. And to think things were dying down. Not the case at all.. with close to 100 bil for intelligence agencies their budget must be huge for disemination of propaganda. RT is a nothing compared to the amount of money the state department seems to be spending. And yet the UK version is bad enough, I am beginning to wonder if no real people bother to go to such sites anymore. I know I stopped reading most main stream sites. Even articles that are not biased are more than likely missing or fake events. No one in their right mind would go post hate messages like this. From the number of messages a huge number of people are posting. Must be sock puppets for the most part but still.. The effort to do it much be huge.04 August, 2014 14:17
Anonymous Nora said...
Saker,That is a truly brilliant hypothesis. Wow.
Where-Wolf,
Wow. I can't -- I wouldn't -- take away a word you said, and said so beautifully. But I'm trying to apply it to my experience as an American, and not just mine bc especially if anyone's family has been here for more than a couple of generations, they're pretty likely to be a bit of a mutt. Not necessarily Native American (though a LOT of old families do bump into a person or two of color way back when), but various European ethnic groups. My grandchildren's generation in our not-over-large family have ancestors from Scotland, Ireland, Belgium, Greece, England, Galicia, various parts of North America, Poland, the Netherlands, France, a bunch of German principalities, Italy and Russia that I can think of off the top -- and I'm sure I've missed a few. But to a person, they see themselves as American and get into the "white ethnic stuff" -- if they do at all -- only in terms of food. So in that sense, it always was different here, and once we learned how to do it (at least among whites) moderately well, it really did become a kind of strength. But I also recognize that the North American experience is very different, and we have no right to impose it -- Or. Anything. Else. -- on anyone else, anywhere.
Anonymous 04:47
Yes, but. To my deepest chagrin, both sides of my family chose to assimilate, and hid their First Nations ancestry very well. Yet despite having hidden from me his long-dead father, my father nevertheless passed along to me his values, wisdom and knowledge. I just had no idea where they came from, or why I saw things so differently than everyone else around me, until I finally learned. Is it genetic? Part of me wants to think so and consider myself blessed to have gotten so much of it. But the other part of me thinks that, while I may certainly have inherited a predisposition to take in and live these things, I still had to be taught. I was just lucky enough to have been. Add in a respect for the connectedness of all Creation, past, present and future and your last couple of sentences encompass the learning. Thank you for them.
American Kulak,
Good to see you commenting again! Left a message 4U on the other post re: your BRILLIANT suggestion. ;~)
04 August, 2014 14:35Anonymous Anonymous said...
Oh another thing is why is the engine on the MH17 still an older GE one instead of RR? Since Malaysia has gone with RR TotalCare service they should have been using these engines which save them 5-10% less in gas bills. Does RR also service GE engines? The difference is they spin in different directions and you can see the fins are not shaped like the RR engine. MH17 being a newer model should have also used the new Trent 800 engines. Mh370 on the hand being a much older model could have been fitted with GE90 engines originally. Something smells fishy here..04 August, 2014 14:40
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Suggest you tube site LivingonplanetzThey have persuasive argument that there was no shoot down wreckage was ma 370 hauled to site and exploded. remember the already decomposed bodies reported by first responders to Strelkov. Many more interesting data.
04 August, 2014 14:59
Anonymous Anonymous said...
If the Russians have a recording of the pilot's plea for help, then why should they release it now? If it turns out that the plane was shot down by Ukie planes, then NATO could spin the story as the actions of a "outraged" Ukie pilot who thought he was attacking Putin's plane. If the Russians keep quiet, then maybe NATO will dig itself into a deep hole. If NATO "analysis" of the Black Boxes reveal no May-Day call, only to be contradicted by Russian tapes the following day,then NATO would stand accused of covering up this atrocity. If they are part of the cover-up then maybe they were also involved in the attack. If Russians have tapes, then they release them only when they can cause the maximum damage to the NATO-West.04 August, 2014 15:18
Anonymous Anonymous said...
It seems to me that the Saker is suggesting that among the most important factors in the outcome of this story is "what do the Russians know?" If that is the case then we should be asking: Did MH17 have a QAR (Quick Access Recorder). If so, was it found? Did the militants have possession of it? Why is no one asking about this? Why is Russia so silent about the "black box" recorders?My understanding is that whoever possesses the QAR can access it without tampering. But I cannot find any reference online to the MH17 QAR.
04 August, 2014 15:28Anonymous Anonymous said...
To hide in open sight is sometimes best achieved by distraction.Whatever happened to the radio traffic of the trailing planes?
04 August, 2014 16:16
Anonymous Anonymous said...
What are the odds that the main crash site would be conveniently located right beside a road in an area that is mostly farmers fields and that there don't appear to be any ground deformation (impact crater) from large pieces of metal falling from 6 miles up in the sky and striking the ground at well over 100 MPH?This is not concrete the plane landed on - it is soft tilled loam in a country world renowned for its deep black soil.(Chernozem)
It is possible that the pilots were trying to land on the road, but given the condition of the aircraft it probably was in no condition to do much maneuvering at that point.
Add to that the pristine passports, undamaged luggage, etc. it all seems pretty fishy. Heck, some luggage sustains more damage from airport handler goons than the luggage that fell from 6 miles out of the sky! Give me a break....
04 August, 2014 16:29
Anonymous Stan said...
@Saker re "It depends on what is found to have damaged the airliner, shrapnel or cannon shells. So far I've only heard speculation ..."OSCE investigator at crash site claims to have seen "machine gun" holes (he probably means cannon holes). Video shows same.
See: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-mh17-michael-bociurkiw-talks-about-being-first-at-the-crash-site-1.2721007?cmp=rss&partner=sky...Alternative link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ze9BNGDyk4
04 August, 2014 16:36
Anonymous Anonymous said...
@Nora,It may also be worth noting that 3 US Presidential elections were won by those that adopted the cause of defeating Chief Tecumseh and the Confederacy as their primary platform. It was not achieved until the British traitors stabbed them in the back. The sad truth is that the War of 1812 was less a war between the US and British but more of a genocidal war against the Peoples of Turtle Island. Any time two side of a war can claim victory, the true "enemy" of both becomes evident.
"We the People" need a modern Tecumseh to guide us against our centuries long enemy. We know who they are, but have yet to figure out who we are. Once we do, it's game over, for them. Keep the faith strong Sister, if not for ourselves, for our children and grandchildren and the future of humanity...
04 August, 2014 16:53
Anonymous Anonymous said...
It is all smoke an mirrors.When NATO was going to hit Syria, Putin said it was a red line and followed through with concrete steps positioning naval vessels in state of readiness. China sent a naval vessel as well. When France and NATO started to get cold feet, Israel launched two Submarine Launched missiles which were quickly destroyed in mid flight by Russian Air Defenses. Russians also made public the launching to let everyone know that they were serious.
USIans had two problems. China had sided with Russia and Iran in defending Assad. China had already vetoed an escalation by USIans against Iran in 2007. Even though USians were still in Iraq China reinstated a Saddam era oil contract in spite of USian interests and occupation of Iraq.
These activities ended the unipolar world economically and then the unipolar world ended militarily when Russia vetoed the NATO attack on Syria.
Fast forward, the BRICS Bank formation announcement and the Eurasian trade alliance is a mortal threat to the USian-NATO alliance. The 70 year long US$ preferred reserve currency status is done. Nations are working out different bartering systems by-passing US$ on account of its $17 trillion dollar debt interest service.
The weakest link is Russia as USians can not go frontally against China without committing harakiri to their economy. Germany is the primary NSA target and Snowden revealed that. The relationship between USians and Germany is now poisoned.
Russia had to be taught a lesson for humiliating the neocons (Brezinzki and PNAC) and the Oil Moguls (Khodorskovsky, Rothschild, Exxon, Chenney, Halliburton, etc.).
Russia has done it again. When Kiev launched Scuds at NAF, air defenses in Russia took them down harmlessly. This is the same red line in place in Syria. Why did DoD reveal firing of Scud? To approve the escalation and to signal that if Moscow is going to take them SCUDS down then NATo is gpoing to approve other more sophisticated weapons to enter the theater.
Concerning the MH17, this is easy. Find rods then the plane was hit with R-60. Find cubes to prove the plane was hit with Buk SAM (unlikely as this would have shred the plane as confetti). Find depleted uranium slugs or radioactivity in cockpit to prove 30 mm antitank fire.
04 August, 2014 17:01
Anonymous Andrew said...
Saker:This whole MH17 incident is a very deep rabbit hole, and I encourage you not to go to far down it. It will drive you crazy.
I would like to point out several issues with all theories to date.
1) Cockpit riddled with bullet holes. The cockpit section offered as evidence is from the back left window. The impacts on this section are too small for a 30mm anti-tank canon. 30 mm = 1-1/4" - these holes are obviously smaller. The 30 mm canon would have shredded the structure with very large holes instead of the precise small round holes seen. Also, the holes are from inside the cockpit, as the edges clearly bend outwards, meaning the impact was on the right side. If the plane was flying west to east at impact, the impact was from the south.
2) R60 Missile. The R60 missile uses infrared homing and an expanding rod warhead. This warhead is intended to act like a saw and chop part of the plane off to make it crash. It would not account for the shrapnel holes.
3) Last reported position. The western flight tracking companies, such as Flightradar24 give a last position of the plane at 33,000 ft. directly over Snizhne at 4:21p. 48.0403N, 38.7728E. Pointedly, this is 15 km past to the southeast of the crashsite. Its impossible that the plane was over Snizhne and then crashed in Hrabove unless it did a 180 degree turn prior to impact. Additionally, Hrabove is the east side of the site. There is additional wreckage even further to the northwest near Rozspyne and Petropavlivka.
4) Flight Path. The Russian Ministry of Defense depicted MH17 on Flight Path L69 and diverting north towards Flight Path L980 at the Donetsk waypoint for unexplained reasons. The western sources all place it on L980. L69 passes over Donetsk. L980 passes over Kramatorsk. They converge at Tamak on the Russian border. That is a pretty big an unexplained discrepancy which no one has chosen to explain or notice.
5) Lack of missile contrail. The SBU has released an image of white smoke purporting to be a missile contrail, with a view taken from north of Torez overlooking the city. The censored BBC report included it. The image might be false, or might be smoke from artillery or industrial processes, but it is wrong to say there is no purported image. The Coup supporting website http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.com/2014/07/launch-location-detected-of-missile.html has a detailed of discussion of where they think the view is from and looking towards, which is frankly not that convincing, but which is the SBU/CIA talking points (launched from Pervomaiskye north of Saur Mogila).
Me personally, I am sticking with what the Russian Ministry of Defense have dribbled out to date - Ukraine was holding air defense exercises using SU25's and commercial flights as dummy targets and a BUK unit deployed south of Shakhtersk at Zaroschenske "accidentally"(?) fired and hit MH17.
The contrary position of the SBU/CIA is that a BUK was smuggled from Russia to Donetsk at night, driven in broad daylight (on a cloudy day) on a stolen lowboy through Makiivka, Zhures and Torez to Snizhne. Offloaded, driven to Pervomaiskyi, fired one shot and hit MH17 was quickly put back on the truck and rushed back to Russia for destruction via Lugansk. Also, the plane was hit by the missile above Snizhne and somehow fell backwards to Hrabove. And despite the eyewitnesses, there was no SU25 and no dogfight. Well, everyone can judge that for themselves.
04 August, 2014 17:09
Anonymous Feng said...
@ Anonymous, 2014 05:16
Online translation capability. For the dominance of English speaking world has for too long left western targets voiceless, unheard, mis-translated / manpulated.So true!
It's one aspect of the information exchange of the web that by this conflict is revolutionizing the history of war.In addition to this it is ultimate important for the Dutch, and all the other not-English speaking countries within the Neoliberal sphere of influence, to set up a news agency on the web--qua design the same like Reuters, but emaculated of propaganda for the Money and because of money--that collects all the relevant articles about the US-Ukrainian 2014 Coup and its aftermath, that are originally written in Ukrainian, Russian or any other language other than English, to open the doors to an über-linguistic understanding of this event by the masses, that d o n ' t r e a d E n g l i s h, even when they are able to! And how much do we need these masses--the majority in the democratic systems, that are abused by news agencies Reuters alike--to overthrow the rotten ruling order, by their own weapon: democracy.
It's specifically important to understand this fact--that most of the people digest this confronting messages, only in their mother's tongue--by those who want to make the critical mass of the public aware, so that they turn over to the the other side of the equation; our side.Sincerely yours,
Feng Chsang04 August, 2014 17:30
Anonymous Anonymous said...
@anonymous 14:59re: Livingonplanetz youtube site
Very interesting comparison of MH17 "crash" and details of Operation Northwoods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAeTYmXwlYA&list=UUlZ50s4vLWoaCD5JNAIjCqg&index=5
Summary as I understand it:
Singapore Air 351 overtakes MH17 and aligns with its flight path.
MH17 is ordered by ATC to drop altitude below SA351.
MH17 is now below SA351
MH17 turns off its transponder and continues flying with SA351
Radar reflective chaff is dropped to convince radar that MH17 has crashed. Chaff is seen falling in videos of crash scene.
Preplaced "wreckage" complete with already dead corpses are trucked into place along roadside.
Explosion simulates crash of plane.
This is almost identical to the plans for the proposed Operation Northwoods.
No one else has mentioned that SA351 also flew through the same "dangerous" northern route that MH17 did.
To see the actual flight path of SA351 that day see Flightradar24 here:
http://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/sq351/#3d61a89This silence from Singapore Air Lines about seeing the flight or an attack is deafening.
04 August, 2014 17:51
Anonymous Anonymous said...
"m missing this with MH-17, but maybe I am not aware of the Dutch media coverage. What I have seen in statements from relatives so far seem all to support the official narrative"Not really. The Dutch government and politics shows remarkable restraint in prematurely judging who did it. Their correct attitude is: we have to wait for the outcome of the investigation. Holland needs to be prudent, because it is directly involved and will have persecute the perpetraitors. My guess is that the relatives wait for the outcome of the investigation.
Kind regards,
Dutch04 August, 2014 18:29
Anonymous Walo said...
@Where Wolf - Thanks for your post as well. One problem with it was that it was too long. Please do not take that the wrong way, because what you had to say was incredibly important, especially the stuff about human collective consciousness.I strongly recommend you have a read about the history of public relations, specifically about a Mr Edward Barneys - there is a documentary on youtube called "The century of the self": http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL4ABAECE80928F083
Watching this will explain what we are up against. In short, you have to keep messages to bite size, so people can absorb them, otherwise they will not pay attention.
But seriously, you made my day with your post, very happy to see others are onto the same idea in terms of human consciousness and the ideas of Rupert Sheldrake.
Please know I agree with what you have written. I personally try to contribute by posting in whatever mainstream media discussion thread I can find, but keeping messages short and sharp.
I hope you find the link I have provided helpful in helping others see the truth.
As for Saker and your theory, yes to machine gun fire to the cockpit, not so sure about the missile leading up to it.
One thing that gives me great hope is that others are seeking the truth, and more importantly, are trying their best to share it with the many many good people on this earth, we are the majority.
If you ever wonder why so many are not willing to listen to the truth and reason, please look at the history and theory of public relations, it is very powerful stuff, know your enemy, fight fire with fire.
04 August, 2014 19:30
Anonymous Writer said...
Saker,If your blog is to serve as an instrument in revealing the Truth in this (or any other) matter, then an effort must be made to present only the Truth. In this particular case, this means avoiding the multitude of speculations and theories about what occurred, and focusing on the known facts, together with documenting how those facts are known, and perhaps including some estimate of the confidence of that knowledge. The Truth might then emerge from such a body of knowledge.
The alternative, where there are endless ramblings about what might have happened, only dilutes your efforts at revealing the Truth. Without a great amount of rational discipline your blog will be reduced to the level that is commonly available, and will become part of the background noise that is added to the Truth signal. Posts such as your "Baseless Hypothesis" with most of its comments, only serve to confuse and obfuscate, not clarify. I don't think I am being excessive in this criticism.
In contrast, your earliest post about this event, where you sketched out both what was known and what was probably the case, was an excellent summary. Of course, it was incomplete, and there may have been errors, but it was a good beginning. That sort of approach needs to be continued and refined. Information needs to be accumulated, critically examined, summarized, and re-summarized as additional information becomes known and understood.
I am tempted to add what might be relevant technical information to this discussion, but without a disciplined structure that can accept and incorporate it, I suspect that it will be just lost in the noise. For example, very early on I pointed out that the hypothesis that MH-17 was attacked by a surface-to-air missile was just the hypothesis that was suggested by Ukraine, possibly as a diversion from the Truth. At that time I suggested that it should be identified as such, and that other possibilities be listed also, including that of an air-to-air missile attack. It took the Russian's revealing their ATC radar information to start to counter that Ukrainian diversion. At this time there are still other diversions that are operative, and they are effective because there is a lack of rational discipline.
For example, the following questions should be systematically addressed:
What ACTUAL EVIDENCE is there that:
- an Su-25 attacked MH-17?
- an R-60 missile was used?
- a 30mm cannon was used?
- an attacking aircraft needed radar direction to locate MH-17?
- an Ukrainian aircraft attacked MH-17?If, in your blog, you ask questions like these, you will get answers, and you can then, in an organized manner, distill those into summaries that suggest further questions, and by that iterative process, converge on the Truth.
04 August, 2014 19:59
Anonymous American Kulak said...
@ Mohamed - greetings to you and peace to your household and Shi'a brothers.To all: I think the 'relatives questioning official MH17 account' is a serious dog not barking here, along withe Ukies dragging out the ATC recordings released (even a final scream of 'they're shooting at us' by the pilots which would likely not exist with a Buk blowing up near the plane but would be consistent with the missile/machine gun fire hypothesis would destroy the MSM/Ukie Narrative). 30 mike mike fire raking the cockpit also seems unlikely from 3-4 km distance even for a supremely skilled (Polish? South African merc?) Su-25 pilot. Unless as another commenter pointed out the stricken/doomed B777 was already going down after an R-60 hit to the engine/wing and the panicked Ukie pilot finished it off at a significantly lower altitude. Russia COULD plausibly be holding back the remaining piece of what its radars saw in order to give NATO/Ukies more time to implicate themselves trying to cover up evidence of a Su-25 at close proximity to the B777 around 17,000 feet as it was spinning/going down near terminal velocity at 250 mph.
I noticed the Ukies tried to preemptively spin the flight recorder analysis and got moderately rebuked by the Dutch. Like everyone else I pray to God the Russians managed to copy the recorder's contents before handing it over and are ready to share what they have with the Malays to create a 'neutral' non-NATO voice in all of this to prevent a Ukie/NATO scrubbing of the ATC/flight recorder evidence. Indeed the longer the Ukies, Dutch and Brits drag out the release the more likely it is that they fear the Russians releasing an unredacted version and the more guilty they look. Moscow is clearly letting the Ukies and NATO intel agencies trying to manipulate the contents sweat on this one.
I also concur with those who say given Russia's history of intel usage it's far more likely to use any true ATC recording as leverage than release it publically thereby blowing the State Dept and NATO's last shred of credibility to smithereens.
Remember Russia believes it has to do business with these psychopaths in the future and always believes in giving its opponents an 'off ramp' or way to 'save face'. Russia has enough Asiatic influence in its Eurasian history that the Asian concept of 'face' is still recognize there whereas DC has become a complete clown show where totally contradictory nonsense can be spewed at any time without shame. The US on the other hand at present appears to not be giving Putin any face saving 'out' whatsoever besides total betrayal of Novorossiya and humiliation in front of his people. This is how small conflicts like an Austro-Hungary/Serbia war turn into global conflagurations, when neither side is willing or able to back down.
04 August, 2014 20:59
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Wahrheit fuer Deutschland разместил у себя на сайте скандальную статью, в которой пилот украинского штурмовика Су-25 рассказывает, что произошло в небе над Донбассом в день крушения майлазийского "Боинга".Aug 01, 2014 | Asia Times Online
... ... ...
When the on-site observations by this Canadian OSCE monitor (watch the video carefully) are compounded with this analysis by a German pilot, a strong probability points to a Ukrainian Su-25's 30 mm auto-cannon firing at the cockpit of MH17, leading to massive decompression and the crash.
No missile - not even an air-to-air R-60M, not to mention a BUK (the star of the initial, frenetic American spin). The new possible narrative fits with on-site testimony by eyewitness in this now famously "disappeared" BBC report. Bottom line: MH17 configured as a false flag, planned by the US and botched by Kiev. One can barely imagine the tectonic geopolitical repercussions were the false flag to be fully exposed.
Selected Comments (from To Sin By Silence: The Juggernaut of Ukrainian State Murder Lurches Onward) Al , August 2, 2014 at 5:47 amWhich brings us back to the original "theory" that Ukes thought they were shooting up Putin's plane.yalensis , August 2, 2014 at 7:36 amThe only way an Su-25 pilot could mistake a Boeing 777 (two engines good), with Putin's Il-96-300PU** (four engines bad, obviously) at all, let alone at such close range and altitude would be if the pilot was dead or blind drunk and his aircraft was being remote controlled by someone else.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_presidential_aircraft
I still think that in all probability it was an accident. But, I no longer rate it as most likely by the rebels. The most plausible theory so far I have seen and I will extrapolate a bit on my own is that: Kiev was fearful of Russian airstrikes in direct support of the rebels and sent their BUK ADF units east, just in case (as militaries usually do). The Su-25s in the air were for calibration/practice for the BUK crews so that they would get it right when and if there were Russian airstrikes. One of the BUK operators launched the missile by accident, but as in any simulation, whomever was in command of the exercise and his subordinates, it was their responsibility to make sure that there was a physical disconnect between the simulation and any ability to launch the missile/s.
A Su-25s 30mm canon strike on the cockpit seems to me far fetched because it is operating at close to its envelope (known as 'coffin corner') and would require extraordinary pilot skill (Mig & Sukhoi fighters have a laser synced to the cannon which then fires automatically when it has a high guarantee of a hit), the Su-25 is a strike aircraft with no radar (unless, as I think Mark pointed out, the Kopyo (sp?) bolt on one) and probably only a laser for guiding bombs to the ground. Sure, Ukranian Su-25s have been modernized but with what exactly and whether this was one of them is still open to question.
What is for sure is that the behavior of the US making almost categorical claims and just not backing it up is deeply suspicious, verging on incompetent. Much worse is the outright lying by Kiev, in particular not having BUKs in the 'hood, followed by sloppy and fabricated 'evidence'.
Most of the time, the most simple explanation is correct, just like in crime, which is in most cases done by someone know to the victim, either for personal gain, hate etc.
Either the US is directly complicit in a false flag operation at worst, which would mean they would have asked the question "what are the consequences of us getting caught" and leads me to believe that they are not some sort of failed evil geniuses, or, and far more plausible, that they are behaving the same way as they did back in 1990 (April Glaspie* was asked by Saddam if the US would have a problem sorting out Kuwait over their little oilfield/money back dispute) and occasions between including Georgia in2008 where Sukkashvili thought the US had his back in taking South Ossetia by offensive force), i.e. the US in their usual diplomatic way of ensuring plausible denyability, let their junk yard dogs to believe that they had 100% backing.
It is undeniable that the US is deeply involved with Kiev in trying to spin Kiev's problems away and providing military assistance, intel etc. and probably servicing of weapons through allies who still have experience on soviet equipment (Poland for example) which is as close to getting blood on your hands as puling the trigger themselves.
No one comes out of this well at all, apart from Maybe the Malaysian Prime Minister. The whole of Europe has faffed about and is riven by division which would not have been so likely if it was, as the Americans say, 'a slam, dunk, and even the Dutch PM's behavior has gone beyond simply representing a stunned and grieving nation, to a politician who will let Kiev off the hook for any of its actions if it is possible – Kiev breaking the MH17 cease-fire zone agreement. I think that the US is using the crisis in the Ukraine as a desperate measure to try and bind Europe closer to the US, which has been drifting further away for quite some time now. The US will fail because a) it is too late & b) they've badly overplayed their hand. 'Europe' cannot afford (literally) more of this kind of help from the US. Whatever happens in the Ukraine, there is no going back.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Kuwait#Iraqi-American_relations
"..On 25 July 1990, the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq April Glaspie asked the Iraqi high command to explain the military preparations in progress, including the massing of Iraqi troops near the border.
The American ambassador declared to her Iraqi interlocutor that Washington, "inspired by the friendship and not by confrontation, does not have an opinion" on the disagreement between Kuwait and Iraq, stating "we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts".
She also let Saddam Hussein know that the United States did not intend "to start an economic war against Iraq". These statements may have caused Saddam to believe he had received a diplomatic green light from the United States to invade Kuwait.[30][31]
According to Richard E. Rubenstein, Glaspie was later asked by British journalists why she had said that, her response was "we didn't think he would go that far" meaning invade and annex the whole country. Although no follow-up question was asked, one might assume that what the U.S. government thought in July 1990 was that Saddam Hussein was only interested in pressuring Kuwait into debt forgiveness and to lower oil production…"
Al, your theory makes sense, but did you SEE those photos? with the bullet and shrapnel holes in the cockpit?Al , August 2, 2014 at 10:24 am
Theories are theories, but direct physical evidence should trump any theories, however logical they seem.BTW, I get your point about the "Putin plane" theory being far-fetched, and also in contradiction to this evidence that a jet fighter flew alongside and blasted the cockpit.
Plus, Putin himself dissed the theory and denied that his plane ever flew over Ukraine, and surely he is too smart to ever fly over that hellhole.
And you're right, that the pilot, at such close range, would see quite clearly that this was a passenger plane, and not Putin's presidential jet.
Yes, I've seen the pictures and read the reports. I am just extremely weary of being shown 'evidence</i?' and being told what it is with big arrows, especially when it is something I don't know much beyond the basics.Yes, it looks like bullet holes, but experts will know much better and have seen far more examples, real examples and will be able to say whether it is credible or not. So far it is an airline pilot, whom I'd trust on aviation stuff, but not military damage and his bio does not mention any military experience, and other people who do not appear to have an extensive military background. If an explosive fragment BUK warhead makes such marks, then it will be proved for sure, or it will be proved not to be. I don't really see that there is much latitude in more than a small handful of possibilities. I'm just being cautious. A little bit of knowledge can be dangerous….
Немецкое издание пишет, что летчик признался в том, что стрелял из бортовой пушки. Именно его самолёт на снимках, сделанных спутниками и представленных на брифинге Генштаба России. Издание уже назвало эту информацию "маленькой победой понимающих Путина".
Ранее эксперты ОБСЕ уже изучили обломки лайнера в районе катастрофы и сделали свои первые выводы, в очередной раз подтверждающие всё вышесказанное.
По повреждениям обшивки упавшего "Боинга" можно установить, из какого оружия сбили малайзийский лайнер. С важным заявлением по этому вопросу выступил представитель ОБСЕ на Украине Майкл Бочуркив.
- Пожалуй, даже дилетанту очевидно, что отверстия были почти как те, что остаются после попадания из пулемёта. И если дальше размышлять в этом духе, то таких повреждений на металле мы не видели где-либо ещё, - цитирует пресс-секретаря миссии ОБСЕ на Украине.
Украинский Су-25, который по данным российского Минобороны был замечен рядом с "Боингом", как раз оснащён не только ракетами, но и встроенной двуствольной 30-милимитровой пушкой. Боекомплект - 250 снарядов.
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Статья по темеЧто случилось с малайзийским самолётом на Украине?
Незадолго до падения малайзийского "Боинга" в трех-пяти километрах от пассажирского лайнера находился украинский боевой самолет, предположительно Су-25. Об этом заявил начальник главного оперативного управления Генштаба ВС России генерал-лейтенант Андрей Картаполов на брифинге в понедельник, 21 июля. Какую еще информацию обнародовало Минобороны РФ о малайзийском Boeing, читайте в справке>>
По словам генерала, штурмовик может кратковременно летать на высоте до 10 тыс. метров. В состав его штатного вооружения входят ракеты класса "воздух-воздух", способные захватывать и поражать цели на удалении до 12 км, а гарантированно - на дальности до 5 км.
Подробнее о версиях крушения малайзийского "Боинга" читайте в колонке Андрея Сидорчика >>
Что представляет собой штурмовик Су-25?
Су-25 (изделие "Т-8", по кодификации НАТО: Frogfoot) - российский бронированный дозвуковой штурмовик, предназначенный для непосредственной поддержки сухопутных войск над полем боя днём и ночью при прямой видимости цели, а также уничтожения объектов с заданными координатами круглосуточно в любых метеоусловиях. В российских и украинских войсках получил прозвище "Грач".
Су-25 впервые поднялся в воздух 22 февраля 1975 года. 8 октября 2009 года Министерство обороны Российской Федерации объявило о возобновлении закупок штурмовиков этого типа для ВВС России.
Вооружение
Су-25 оснащается мощным комплексом вооружения:
– авиапушками;
– авиабомбами различного калибра и назначения;
– управляемыми и неуправляемыми ракетами "воздух-земля";
– управляемыми ракетами "воздух-воздух".Всего на штурмовик может устанавливаться 32 вида вооружений. Самолёт обладает встроенной 2-ствольной 30-миллиметровой авиационной пушкой ГШ-30-2.
Лётно-технические характеристики Су-25
Габариты:длина - 15,53 м
высота - 4,8 м
размах крыла - 14,36 м
площадь крыла - 30,1 кв. мМасса:
пустой - 9315 кг
взлётная нормальная - 14 600 кг
взлётная максимальная - 17 533 кгБоевая нагрузка:
нормальная - 1400 кг
максимальная - 4400 кгСкорость:
максимальная у земли - 970 км/ч
крейсерская - 750 км/ч
посадочная - 210 км/чДальность полёта максимальная:
у земли - 750 км
на высоте - 1250 км
радиус действия - 300 км
практический потолок - 7000 м
экипаж - 1 человек
запас топлива - 3000 кг
ВЗГЛЯД - Главком ВВС Украина могла тайно получить Су-25 от третьей страны
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Зафиксировано, что в месте крушения Боинга болталась хренова туча летательных аппаратов - начиная с американского спутника сверху, укропского штурмовика - в задней сфере и толпы других гражданских лайнеров - по разным сторонам.
Кроме этого, буквально в пригородах Донецка спокойно шастали, сворачивались - разворачивались укропские БУКи, причем пик их работы совпал с временем, когда был сбит лайнер, и сворачивание - сразу после того как...
Что не было представлено и чего все ждали:
Если Боинг сбили ополченцы-то теракт.
Если Боинг сбила Россия-то ужасное преступление.
Если Боинг сбила Украина-это досадное недоразумение.
P.S. О! Зафиксирована активность Википедии. Интересно - в КБ Сухого тоже заберутся - ТО СУ-25
менять?
P.P.S. Профессиональный rediski предлагает неплохую версию подрыва на борту, потому и не было ни СОС, ни каких - либо других тревожных действий.
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