The virus epidemic which started in the USA in full force in March will probably follow Chinese pattern. Which means the
time to the peak will be around two-three months (which means in summer the epidemics start subsiding.). The worst pandemic
going on in the US and around the world in not Covit-19, it is opioid pandemic, 53,000 died last year in the US from opioid abuse.
It is not just in the US it is a world wide problem.
The aggravating factors for the USA include amazing lack of discipline (especially for teenagers), ignorance, petty greed,
incompetence of the elite, and paradoxically widespread nutty religiousness (allowing religious services while keeping everybody on
quarantines is pretty strange to me.)
Extremes meet: Orthodox Jews and Christian conservatives behavior patterns during this epidemic were very similar to Muslims: the
funniest irony of it all is that while Iran has exacerbated coronavirus spread due to religious ignorance of population, so will the
US. Add to the "American exceptionalism" which in reality is primitive nationalism, and neoliberalism with its deification of "free
markets" which prevent some necessary measures, and "Huston we have a problem"
IMHO the elite who are not detached from the actual production process and are engaged primarily in parasitic activities
(finance), are decadent.
Pretty drastic measures taken by some states like NY, NJ, California and Washington (Currently New York is the epicenter of the
epidemics) are compromised by religious nuttiness.
As of March 21 we still see typical for initial stages of any flu epidemic exponential increase of cases, with the number of
patient doubling in approx. three days but a very low number of critical cases and hospitalizations.
Date
Total cases
Daily increase in cases
Day increase in percent
Weekly average
Deviation from the average
Hospitalised
Serious
Deaths
Recovered
Notes
3/1
75
33.00%
0.28%
3/2
100
25
33.33%
0.61%
100 mark
3/3
124
24
24.00%
-8.72%
3/4
158
34
27.42%
-5.30%
3/5
221
63
39.87%
7.15%
3/6
319
98
44.34%
11.62%
3/7
435
116
36.36%
3.64%
3/8
541
106
24.37%
-8.35%
3/9
704
163
30.13%
-2.59%
3/10
994
290
41.19%
8.47%
1K mark
3/11
1,364
370
37.22%
4.50%
3/12
1,698
334
24.49%
-8.24%
3/13
2,247
549
32.33%
-0.39%
3/14
2,943
696
30.97%
32.13%
-1.75%
3/15
3,680
737
25.04%
0.00%
-7.68%
10
0.27%
3/16
4,663
983
26.71%
0.00%
-6.01%
10
0.21%
86
3/17
6,411
1,748
37.49%
0.00%
4.76%
12
0.19%
109
3/18
9,259
2,848
44.42%
0.00%
11.70%
12
0.13%
150
10K mark
3/19
13,789
4,530
48.93%
0.00%
16.20%
12
0.09%
207
3/20
19,384
5,595
40.58%
0.00%
7.85%
64
0.33%
256
3/21
24,207
4,823
24.88%
34.88%
-7.84%
1,964
64
0.26%
302
147
3/22
33,546
9,339
38.58%
0.00%
5.86%
2,554
64
0.19%
419
178
3/23
43,734
10,188
30.37%
0.00%
-2.35%
3,325
1175
2.69%
573
184
3/24
54,856
11,122
25.43%
0.00%
-7.29%
4,468
1040
1.90%
775
378
3/25
68,211
13,355
24.35%
0.00%
-8.38%
6,136
1452
2.13%
1032
384
3/26
85,435
17,224
25.25%
0.00%
-7.47%
10,131
1455
1.70%
1143
1696
3/27
103,798
18,363
21.49%
0.00%
-11.23%
13,718
2463
2.37%
1693
2211
100K mark
3/28
123,578
19,780
19.06%
26.18%
-13.67%
16,729
2666
2.16%
2211
3231
3/29
143,491
19,913
16.11%
0.00%
-16.61%
19,730
3034
2.11%
2457
3/30
163,788
20,297
14.15%
0.00%
-18.58%
22,303
3402
2.08%
3129
3/31
188,530
24,742
15.11%
0.00%
-17.62%
26,660
4576
2.43%
4053
7251
4/1
215,003
26,473
14.04%
0.00%
-18.68%
31,142
5005
2.33%
5110
8878
Starting from 100K cases the rate of increate will probably slow down. Number of infections among medical personnel, another important
metric, are unavailable (worldometers.info)
It took the USA eight days to get from 100 cases to 1000 and another eight days to get from 1K to 10K. Some of the dynamics
can be explained the low availability of test kits -- this was the area where CDC royally screwed the US population
Unfortunately, the current atmosphere increasingly exhibits the characteristics of a collective panic—and that is always a poor basis
for intelligent policy decisions.
The neoliberal society with its twisted guiding philosophy of radical individualism and competition combined with a supremacist “that
could never happen here” attitude quickly falls into panicked chaos when reality kicks in and reveals the society’s underlying vulnerabilities.
Countries with weak social safety nets and an ideological opposition to social responsibility are extremely vulnerable to systemic breakdown
when their societies are hit with unexpected stress. That is what we see in the USA. This virus is revealing just how ineffective the
neoliberal social Darwinism (“every man for himself”) ethic (aka "neoliberal rationality") is and how deeply in denial and out
of touch with reality these societies are. Including first of all neoliberal politicians.
The for-profit health system in the USA is certainly is very efficient in raking in cash for insurance companies and big pharma.
But health care outcomes are mediocre at best and other countries do a far better job for far less money. The most basic needs of patients
and health care workers are often unmet. Health care workers complain they haven’t received proper training putting them in danger of
infection and do not have supplies to protect themselves even as they treat COVID-19 patients. And that's in richest country in the
world.
...system can’t provide enough hand sanitizer the governor of New York came up with a solution. Andrew Cuomo announced that
the state will produce hand sanitizer made by
prison labor .
We already are No.1. NYC is now world capital of coronavirus infections. The fact that the country with one trillion
military budget and 17 intelligence agencies was caught without pants for this epidemics is incredible. No plan for dealing with epidemic.
States improvise as epidemics unfold, often overreacting with disastrous for the economy results.
We definitely have "Coronavirus recession" now as the second stage of 2008 recession/stagnation. All neoliberal transformation of
the USA economy now had blow into our faces. Silicon Valley is partially guilty as the staunch promoter of neoliberalism and globalization
in the USA. I would jail a couple to "tech titans" just as a useful scapegoats, but only after banksters (especially NYC faction of
private equity sharks who destroyed the US healthcare). Renovation of Alcatraz for this purpose would be a very worthwhile project :-)
The USA might fare worse then China in this epidemic as there are a lot of overweight, deeply unhealthy people in the USA. I sometimes
watch with amazement and horror how many barely walk and have difficulties getting out of the car. Especially all those 300+ pound women
and men.
For a country with one trillion military budget not having enough masks and ventilators and accepting help from China and Russia
is very humiliating. Level of bureaucratic incompetence demonstrated in this particular case is just staggering.
Now it is clear the healthcare system has military importance. What is worse is that as the USA is considered now "not capable to
adhere to signed treaties" there might be a new round of armed race in this particular area.
And in the USA is almost completely broken and taken over by private equity sharks. Only people with a good insurance are OK in this
environment (let's say top 20% or so). Most of the population are screwed up. Ambulance ride can cost you neat $5K even if you have
insurance, as most ambulances are conveniently "out of network" and are owned by Wall Street scum. Doctors here are not always trustworthy.
For example, dozens of cardiac surgeons landed in jail performing unnecessary operations of healthy patients. And for one caught, probably
tens exist that were not caught. Horrible stores abound. Inserting stents into healthy patients became a national hobby. Such a money
sucking insects in white gowns.
Many people are afraid to go to the hospital even in case of real emergencies, as they do not have health insurance. That includes
most of contractors. Because hospitals now are also owned by Wall Street scum. Financialization, as it is called. AKA Casino Capitalism.
Selling stocks, buying stocks, getting bonuses. Most readers probably know the game and participated in this game (as marks ;).
That means that those people will propagate virus and make the epidemic worse and much longer. In NJ not 100% of front
line staff of shops that still open still wearing masks (and almost nobody wear masks before March 20 or so). What is the value of quarantine
is such situation is very unclear to me. Also not all shops force visitors to disinfect hands on entry. This is another big no-no.
Some shops that enforce two meter policy inside create lines of hundred of people outside which probably serve better for the propagation
of the virus then presence inside the shop as the period of close infection is longer.
Frontline staff of still opened shops who do not wear masks will propagate virus and make the epidemic worse and much longer.
In NJ (No.2 state in the USA, as for the number of tested positive) not 100% of front line staff of shops that still open
still wearing masks (and almost nobody wear masks before March 20 or so).
What is the value of quarantine is such situation
is very unclear to me.
It is quite possible that the virus originated from the USA. There was so called "vaping pneumonia" epidemic int he USA in august
2019. Google "vaping pneumonia" -- it looks very similar to the COVID-19 virus pneumonia. Just a different category of affected:
mostly smokers of some nasty staff. And for some reason nobody made genomic analysis of this the pathogen in this illness, which raises
an important question: Is it different from COVID-19 or not?
I would like to state it again: the fact that the country with one trillion military budget was caught without pants for this epidemics
is incredible. And this is for a country with laboratories which store anthrax and other nasty staff. IMHO a large part of Pentagon
brass, all those "Pentagon perfumed princes" need to be replaced after this incident.
Not enough stockpiled masks (even regular surgical mask, to say nothing about N95 masks), no ventilators (or more correctly not enough),
no reserve production capacities to produce them, no plan how to deal with epidemics, some ad-hoc improvisations on state level. In
other words this country does not have ability to produce N95 masks in quantities needed even for hospital staff (and you be be
sure that in case of epidemic international supplies will not difficult to get.) Just a bunch of expensive and semi-useless F35 and
aircraft carriers to feed military industrial complex. BTW aircraft careers and submarines proved to be perfect places for the propagation
of this virus. Warships (like cruise ships) are for this virus like mosquitoes for malaria.
To add insult to injury this court jester Dr. Fauci, since 1984 the director of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) slept over all January and woke up only in late February, crying Wolf,
Wolf. He should not only be dismissed but prosecuted for criminal negligence. This old hat should travel to China or Korea in Jan and
access the situation immediately because close ties between China and the USA in globalized economy. You do not need to have Ph.D to
understand the NYC and LA will be next after Wuhan.
On the positive side epidemic is slowing down in the USA from average increase of positive probes 34% a day to 24% a day. I calculated
some statistics and it is clear the danger is overblown and just enforcing wearing of masks in public places would do the job in this
particular case.
There are only slightly above 30K hospitalizations (read cases of virus pneumonia) in the USA so far. Statistically this is just
noise in comparison with seasonal flu (810K hospitalizations) but the virus pneumonia itself is very nasty (with fibrosis of lungs of
various degree as a common outcome), so this is not apple-to apple comparison. Flu mainly causes bacterial pneumonia.
The original reaction in the United States government to the corona outbreak was surprisingly casual. It is unclear what information
multiple intelligence agencies have had, because now they were engaged in efforts to save face and blame Trump administration and China
(U.S.
intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic ).
One of the most regrettable blunders was that the administration did not close access to senior care centers for visitors and some
of them which became the local centers of infection. As well as religious congregations. Some orthodox congregations and evangelical
congregations became hot spots for propagating infection. Is it so difficult to worship your God in masks ? Hand disinfection
was also not implemented.
Trump administration did absolutly nothing in January and February to rump up local production of masks and other clothing necessary
for medical personnel to fight infection. Medics, who are in most danger among all population groups, were not systematically
trained by Koreans (the USA has two month to do so). Proper protocols were not established. This was the major blunder of
Trump administration and the case of bureaucratic incompetence what will be studying in textbooks.
In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately,
we do not know if these measures
work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school
closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability
to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious
disease.
The USA government behaviour drastically changed in March 11 with Trump's surprise announcement of cancelling air travel from
EU countries for 30 days. Initially GB and Ireland were excluded, which provide for strangled travelers a "window" of escape. Later
they were added. Still all this was badly planned and caused major panic with ticket prices for the last flights from EU to the
USA skyrocketing to ten thousand dollars.
CDC blunders is another parts of the story of bureaucratic incompetence. CDC did not launch the training of medical personnel in
January to use protective gear, despite that the fact that the virus severely affected medical personnel in Wuhan.
There was no efforts to create "reasonable" safeguards in US airports, despite that fact that both are known centers of infections.
There were only very limited attempt to establish the screening and mandatory quarantine of passengers in airports, arriving from international
flights.
Looks like the USA government completely wasted the whole January February and met flaring up of infections in March unprepared.
And what is most important CDC botched the production and distribution of virus tests leaving the country without them till late March,
when testing can change nothing. Gin was out of the bottle.
It seems the CDC, NIH and the USA privatized health care system in general was caught flat-footed and didn't have any plan to execute.
Currently CDC does not even provide the information about how this particular virus spreads Look at this pitiful document (Transmission
of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) CDC)
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
Spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching
their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.
At the same time Trump attempted to fight panic spread by neoliberal MSM as for mortality and that's probably the only positive
part of the government response (
Trump disputes World Health Organization death rate )
Asked about WHO's coronavirus fatality rate findings during an interview Wednesday, Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity: "Well,
I think the 3.4% is really a false number."
He added, "now, this is just my hunch ... based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of
people will have this, and it's very mild."
Trump later put the number at less than 1%.
Later events proved that he was right.
While some problems that the USA now experiencing with coronavirus are the direct or indirect result of blunders (like CDC blunder
with test kits; of overcrowding of returning passengers in airports on arrival from Europe after the fight ban), some are not.
Many things are rooted deeply in neoliberal globalization and perverted neoliberal rationality. Both make proper reaction to dangerous
epidemic almost impossible. So by-and-large the USA current problems were unavoidable.
Also in epidemics like in war mistakes are to be made. At the same time repeating Chinese mistakes was pain vanilla incompetence.
Classic bureaucratic incompetence, if you wish. While there are no perfect responses in the current environment (the availability of
a vaccine would change everything), the earlier government reacted, the slower the virus would spread.
But under neoliberal globalization any reaction like closing international travel and mandatory 14 days quarantine for arraval entails
severe economic disruption, and that means that the measures were postponed till it's to late for them to be affective while providing
the same level of economic disruption. Meanwhile large sectors of the economy, here and abroad, are nearly collapsing because
of fears about COVID-19 epidemics that are not entirely justified.
Watch the interviews below. Dr. Anthony Fauci who is the
head of the head of the
National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) This high level "medical diplomat" in his March interviews carefully avoid mentioning
that fact that CDC completely botched producing and distributing test kits and the government did nothing substantial to combat the
virus the whole February. And that he spept all january and February doing tnothing to prepere the county to the epidemic.
As the result the USA goverment was not able to provide adequate quantities of masks even to medical workers. Frontline personnel
in grocery shops, Wall Mart, etc still working the first half of March without masks. That makes a joke the fact that the USA was viewed
as a country best prepared to facing the pandemic:
Ever since the West African Ebola epidemic of 2014, which the Global Health Security Index calls
"a wake-up call," projects like this have been created to put better mechanisms in place for
future pandemics of all kinds; be they naturally occurring viruses or genetically engineered bioweapons.
The tests the Index was based on concerns whether countries have "functional, tested, proven capabilities
for stopping outbreaks at the source" which are then "regularly tested and shown to be functional
in exercises or real-world events." Pretty serious stuff, then.
Countries were assessed based on six criteria: “Prevention, Detection and Reporting, Rapid Response,
Health System, Compliance with International Norms, and Risk Environment.” Of those six, the US topped
the field in four, even scoring an almost perfect 98.2 in “Early Detection & Reporting.” (So
much for that.)
Overall, the US put the rest of the world to shame, scoring 83.5 out of a possible 100. In second place
was the United Kingdom, followed by the Netherlands, Australia and Canada. Italy is in 31st place overall,
and China is in 51st place. Most of the lowest scoring countries are small islands or African countries,
and Equatorial Guinea gets the wooden spoon. The full list and report can be viewed
here.
A comedy of errors
Being one of the richest countries in the world at the cutting edge of scientific innovation and medicine
should have gone some way towards making America pandemic-proof. So why, then, are they in such big trouble
now? The answer lies in their government’s poor decision-making from the very beginning, which has sent
them on the most dangerous of all possible paths.
They were
too slow to begin testing suspected cases, and when they did, the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention
bungled the rollout. Their cases really began to spike around mid-March, but now that they have taken
the lead in confirmed cases outside of China, one feels that they will not look back. Just how bad the
situation could deteriorate in the US remains to be seen.
Most airports did not perform even elementary screening of arriving passengers. And the operation of returning the US citizens
from Europe after travel with EU countries was banned was also completely botched. All February the administration essentially was allowing
the flow infected passengers from Italy and France without screening and quarantine (two severely hit by COVID-19 countries with
large tourists flows from the USA) to spread the disease in the USA:
But there is some progress. With national emergency declared on Feb 13, FEMA's USD 50 billion is unlocked to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.
FEMA is one of the few federal institutions which still works and works well.
Arrival of warm weather on Eastern Coast may significantly change the dynamic of epidemics, slow down infections and help NYC, which
is the most severe affected on this coast and the most densely populated area.
Measures for self-isolation of seniors that state like NY, NJ and California tries now, with all their shortcomings, is of
vital importance and it should have been done much earlier, because the USA has advantage of Chinese experience with this epidemic (which
it by-and-large ignored). This was not done. There should also be the prohibition of air trips and remove vacations (including cruise
ships) for this category of people. Violators they put their own life and lives of other people especially medical personnel in unnecessary
danger. Seniors are the major factor is overcrowding of intensive care beds in the hospitals. Trying to protect them from this
virus is probably the most important part of "flattening the curve" efforts.
The USA has a lower population density than other affected countries so outside of large cities like New York it is in much better
position to suppress the epidemics. Large parts of the country such as Texas already have warm weather which typically helps
to suppress such epidemics.
Globally COVID-19 is spreading more slowly then in the USA slowly: 69K cases on Feb 15 vs. 162K cases on March 15: in other words
the number of cases approx. doubled in one month period. Assuming that the next month will be same and then epidemic start to
subside replicating the shape of the curve before the peak, we will have globally around 162+324+162K=648K or something like half-million
cases total for this virus
The delay between the shutdown in Wuhan and a fall in new daily cases
was 12 days . That suggests that in two weeks from now (April 2) we will probably see a drop in the number of new cases
in the US. But that is not guaranteed.
The priority is to slow down the spread of the disease to lessen overcrowding of hospital beds with severe
cases.
At the same time there are multiple cases of selfish, reckless behaviour of a part of the population. Some young people from
closed schools and universities engage in travel as tickets and hotels are dirt cheap now. Those who carry the virus are spreading the
infection with them. Some people who are at risk are not wearing mask and engage in reckless behaviour disrespecting community
interests such as shopping using public transport or other encounters with large number of people. Years of neoliberalism brainwashing
("Greed is good", "shareholder value" mantra, glorification of unlimited predatory competition as in Latin saying "homo
homini lupus est") converted a large part of the US population into greedy and selfish animals, and while
such people concentrate in FIRE sector, other segment of population are also severely affected. The situation is especially
bad in NYC.
Years of neoliberalism brainwashing converted some part of the US population into greedy and selfish animals and this epidemic
and while such people concentrate in FIRE sector, other segment of population are also severely affected. Epidemic of hoarding
also had shown the ugly face of neoliberal rationality
in full grace. The situation is especially bad in NYC.
So far infections are clustered within families and friends of initially infected persons. For example, if wife is infected, the
husband and children typically became infected too. Common spreading centers are religious gatherings and conferences. The same danger
represents travelling with the infected person in public transport if he/she is not wearing a mask, or any other close and prolonged
contact. Most of initial US patients had recently visited Wuhan or attended meeting/conference were at least one infected person
was present. "Community spread" cases, where person was infected in transport or public places like grocery shops like on this
early state of epidemic are relatively rare.
The lower you are in the USA "wealth pyramid" the worse it is for you. Particularly for the elderly underclass.
Is the Chinese Government using the Corona outbreak as a cover for some other purpose?
Definitely. Iranian too. Related to trade war/sanctions I feel. The bottom line, everybody on top wins, in this game. Say….up
to 20 %. The rest are designated losers. Lower in the pyramid worse it is. The elderly underclass in particular. Good
gig…for some. So far works like charm.
Critique of the "flattening the curve" approach adopted by the USA
Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common
diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, etc that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm
the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being
overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason
we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.
One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long ockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy and society.
Hyping the threat by MSM already produced harding epidemic in the USA. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including
financial crisis.
At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the
infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.
The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people
died.
We can discuss whether CODID-19 represents a pandemic or not, but hoarding epidemics in the USA is very real.
It also feels like a scam: there is no shortage of snake oil sellers who hope stoking such fears will make people buy more supplies.
The reality is that there is little point “preparing“ for the most catastrophic scenarios some of these people envision. As a species,
we live and die by our social world and infrastructure — and outside some minimal stocks (say two weeks supply of food in areas
affected by infection and which might be subject to quarantine (which are currently only two cities in the US.) Moreover,
it is difficult to predict what will be needed in the face of total catastrophe (Preparing
for Coronavirus to Strike the U.S. - Scientific American Blog Network ). You can't drink sanitizer and you need minimal amount of
it when you are outside of home. In all other cases regular soap is more effective against this virus, so hoarding sanitizer is
far from the best move you can make:
American Association for the Advancement of Science By Derek Lowe 4 March, 2020
Since this is going to be a post about the coronavirus, let's start off with this PSA: wash your hands. These viruses have
a lipid envelope that is crucial to their structure and function, and soaps and detergents are thus very effective at inactivating
them. It's fast, it's simple, and it's one of the more useful things that any individual can do under these conditions.
The real crisis scenarios we’re likely to encounter require cooperation and, crucially, “flattening the curve” of the crisis
which includes sharing not hoarding, so the more vulnerable (older folks) can fare better and our social world and the infrastructure
will be less stressed. For those who can do it that way that means switching to work from home and avoiding unnecessary travel
and meetings. Most think those days can be done via phone of via teleconferencing.
We do not need to contribute to the panic, and to panic buying isopropyl alcohol and hand sanitizers as if there no tomorrow.
From state to state, shelves at grocery stores are being emptied. Community after community is stocking up on essential goods as they
anticipate a very remote (or non-existent in many areas of the country ) possibility our of fears of forced China style
self-quarantine. In reality only retired persons in areas with active cases of infection need to self-quarantine as they are the
most vulnerable and can overwhelm hospitals. They generally should stay home, avoid direct contact with relatives and friends
(which are rare those days, anyway, so no big deal) , and do only rare shopping which should exclude all shopping for clothing, etc.
They need a lot of exposure to sun, vitamins, flesh air to boost the immune system. Abandoning bad habits like smoking would be
nice too. No or minimal visits to restaurants, entertainment centers like casino, or God forbid cruise ships or international
travel. For the sake of everyone else, they should prepare to stay home for a few weeks, while epidemic burns out in their neighborhood
and try their best not to be infected. This way they will reduce their own risks, but most importantly, they will reduce the burden
on health care and delivery infrastructure and allow frontline workers to reach and help the most vulnerable.
What does “flattening the curve” mean for the current COVID-19 threat facing us: the emerging pandemic of this human coronavirus?
Epidemiologists often talk about two important numbers: R0 or how infectious a disease might be, expressed as the number
of people that are infected by each person who’s been infected; and the case fatality ratio (CFR): the number of people
who die as a result of being infected. For example, an R0 of two means each infected person infects two people on average,
while a number less than one means the disease is likely dying out in the population. Some diseases are deadlier than others: the
average case fatality ratio for Ebola has been around 50 percent, for example, while the common cold is rarely deadly for otherwise
healthy individuals.
The infectiousness of a virus, for example, depends on how much we encounter one another; how well we quarantine individuals
who are ill; how often we wash our hands; whether those treating the ill have proper protective equipment; how healthy we are to
begin with—and such factors are all under our control. After active measures were implemented, the R0 for the 2003 SARS epidemic,
for example, went from around three, meaning each person infected three others, to 0.04. It was our response to SARS in 2003 that
made sure the disease died out from earth, with less than a thousand victims globally.
... ... ..
All of this means that the only path to flattening the curve for COVID-19 is community-wide isolation: the more people stay home,
the fewer people will catch the disease. The fewer people who catch the disease, the better hospitals can help those who do. Crowding
at hospitals doesn’t just threaten those with COVID-19; if emergency rooms are overwhelmed, more flu patients, too, will die because
of lack of treatment, for example.
But what we see in the USA is primitive and destructive hoarding epidemic. Toilet paper, sanitary wipes and sanitizers are in short
supply as stocks are being exhausted. As of March 3, 2020 a 250 ml (8 ounces) bottle of hand sanitizer on Amazon was $60 or so (while
its regular price is $2 or so ;-). This is not only ridiculous but it beats "socialist back market" prices.
Ana
I know someone who is the head of security in the SF Bay for a large big box membership store that all of us in the States
are familiar with. Their stores in the SF Bay area have been selling out of water, hand sanitizers, gloves, masks and other
similar cleaning supplies, along with boxed mac and cheese and similar long shelf life foods.
Their regional supply center that brings replacement supply in over night by semi trucks has not been able to refill it’s own
pallets from suppliers. He just texted me pics of local big box stores in the Bay with empty shelves and no back stock is available.
I can’t find info on sales of things like generators. I don’t care what soothing nonsense the TV and feds blather at us. People
are trying to get what they think they need to cope with serious disruption.
Ana in Sacramento.
P.S. By the way, I was one of the paper pushers who designed emergency response and business resumption plans for the State
of California. This event was never considered or planned for. I’m retired so it may have been added after I left.
The dynamic of the USA panic can be watched via Amazon prices for those items and as of March 7 the panic is still in full swing
(you can buy the same 250 ml(8 ounces) bottle for mere $35 ;-) . And they used to say that such hoarding behaviour is typical
only for socialism ;-).
And despite chaotic and botched containment of epidemic (CDC botched development and production of test kits so badly that the officials
responsible probably should be tried for criminal negligence ) the USA government managed already take several measures to slow down
the spread of the virus (please note that time is working against the virus -- warm weather in East cost will come in May or even earlier).
For example, starting Sunday, Feb. 2, the US citizens, permanent residents and immediate family who have visited China's Hubei province
undergo a mandatory 14 days quarantine. On Mar 11, Trump administration prohibited all flights from Europe firs exampling UK and
Ireland and later adding them.
On Mar 13 Trump has declared the coronavirus a US national emergency and offered $50 billion for support of state and local governments
to fight the virus with FEMA.
At the same time the US Fed has increased its public support of the global private banking system in amounts looking to total in
the trillions of dollars and our Congress Critters are setting up to re-authorize the Patriot Act suppression of human rights.
On March 15 CDC recommended that all gatherings of more than 50 people within the United States be canceled for the next 8 weeks.
The same day California ordered all bars and nightclubs to shut their doors, restaurants to cut the number of tables in half and
for millions of seniors and people with chronic health conditions to immediately “self-isolate” at home
(mercurynews.com)
As the coronavirus continues its rapid spread, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday afternoon issued an urgent call for all California,
restaurants to cut the number of tables in half and for millions of seniors and people with chronic health conditions to immediately
“self-isolate” at home.
Newsom’s unprecedented call for action is designed to slow the infection rate, especially among the most vulnerable. The governor
stopped short of asking eating establishments to shut their doors, saying the need for food service during the pandemic remained
vital.
“We need to prioritize our focus,” Newsom said during an hour-long press conference in Sacramento. “We are looking at this from
a very holistic perspective.”
It was unclear how long the self-quarantine for seniors should continue.
NYC closed all schools staring Monday, March 16, 2020. NJ followed the suit. Both states resorted to pretty drastic measures.
All schools, entertainment outlets such as bars, nightclubs and non-essential shops are closed in NY and NJ. Meetings over
50 people prohibited. Malls are also closes in some counties.
The CDC stunning failure to provide the coronavirus testing kits needed to control the spread of the outbreak is a national outrage.
Their incompetence threatens to increase the scope and prolong the duration of epidemics and contributes to troubles that now
the USA economy experience.
It is unlearn why the CDC failed to make mass production of test kits its top priority and who is responsible. But it is clear that
heads should roll (The Mercury News editorial,
South Korea is testing 20,000 people every day, thanks to a biotech firm that anticipated the threat in January. South Korea is
providing free tests for anyone a doctor deems necessary at more than 100 facilities across the nation. The result is that South
Korea is now seeing more recoveries than new cases.
Contrast that with the state of California, which has only 10 million fewer people than South Korea. Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday
that the state has been provided with 8,227 testing kits from the CDC. But some of those kits did not contain all the chemicals needed
to administer them to Californians — a glaring failure given that it’s been nearly two months since the coronavirus outbreak began
in China.
Newsom compared it to “going to the store and purchasing a printer, but forgetting to purchase the ink. You need multiple components.”
All told, as of Friday [Mar13, 2020], California had conducted a total of only 1,573 tests at its 18 state test labs.
The problem stems from the CDC’s botched first effort to mass produce test kits, followed by delays in sending promised replacement
kits for several weeks.
“The incompetence has really exceeded what anyone would expect with the CDC,” Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard University,
told the New York Times. “This is not a difficult problem to solve in the world of viruses.”
Testing is crucial to slowing the spread of the disease because it allows those who are infected to be quarantined. Health officials
can then trace who they may have been in contact with and test and possibly quarantine those people.
It’s essential that Congress investigate what went wrong and take steps to prevent it from happening during the next inevitable infectious
disease threat. But that’s for another day. The focus now must be on taking steps to minimize further spread of coronavirus and its
impact on people and the economy.
The state is turning to its major hospitals and private labs for additional help. It’s possible that their testing sites could be
up and running in the next week. President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency on Friday could also eliminate red tape and
speed the testing process.
Once upon a time, the United States was the global leader in fighting infectious diseases and serving as the provider for testing
kits to the world. Those days are long gone. The CDC must act to make up for its incompetence and take whatever steps necessary to
protect Americans against current and future outbreaks.
The CDC must also give clear direction on how hospitals can treat patients during this national emergency. It is not done. China
recommended three drugs that can help some patients. CDC does not provided any recommendations at all.
Abrupt announcement caused panic and airports on arrival became so overcrowded that they became epicenter of spreading the decease:
they manage to replicate the situation that was far worse that exists on cruise ships with many thousand of people.
Air conditioners are also known to circulate air-borne diseases such as Legionairre’s Disease, a potentially fatal infectious disease
that produces high fever and pneumonia. For efficiency air-conditioned on cruise ships, bases and airplanes mix fresh air with the already
circulated air and this is a concern. For example, some experts think that
in Diamond Princess cruise ship epidemic AC might help to spread the virus to all cabin
Currently there is no strong evidence to support the claim that the virus can be transmitted through the air conditioner recirculation.
It is believed to be spread mainly through droplets on close contact with infected person (less then 2m). In this case the mucus or
saliva of an infected person who sneezes or coughs can be inhaled and infect the person. This virus is likely to die when the
droplets dry up (Can
the coronavirus be spread through the air, Singapore News & Top Stories - The Straits Times):
Experts say if the virus could really survive even after the droplets carrying it have dried up, it would have spread through
the air as dust particles and potentially infected 10 times more people, which is not the case.
Last week, a Shanghai official, Mr Zeng Qun, said the virus could spread through aerosol transmission, or the mixing of the virus
with airborne liquid droplets.
This would allow the virus to linger in the air and infect those who inhale it, he said. Diseases that are known to spread
this way include tuberculosis, chicken pox and measles.
But an infectious diseases expert at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Mr Feng Luzhao, refuted this on Sunday,
stating that the droplets carrying the virus travel only about 1m to 2m and
do not stay suspended in the air. This is why you are unlikely to catch the virus through transient (or short-term) contact
such as on public transport.
Ultraviolet rays and heat from the sun can kill the virus as virus does not last long on fresh air in a sunny day. This is
true for all viruses. The likelihood of viral persistence outdoors is lower, as most studies indicate that viruses do not survive in
hot and humid environments. This refers to a temperature of over 30C and a humidity level of over 80 per cent.
Using humidifier at home and maintaining 50% humidity might help to protect you and family members.
Trump is a neoliberal to the core so he postponed invocation of the Defense Production Act (DPA). That did not stop him from
threatening toinvoke it, but people at the top understand that those threats are toothless. Trump has a chance to prove that
his is not complete stooge of Wall Street and financial oligarchy.
On March 28, 2020 he threatened to invoke the Defense Production Act (DPA) to force General Motors to
ramp up production of ventilators. He did did not actually invoked it due to the big business lobbying (including powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce) against the use of the emergency powers
(Trump, Biden and the Defense Production Act
- FactCheck.org):
Five days later, on March 18, Trump
invoked the Defense Production Act “just
in case we need it.” But Trump stopped short of implementing the act to force production of certain goods. Later that day,
Trump tweeted, “I only signed the Defense Production
Act to combat the Chinese Virus should we need to invoke it in a worst case scenario in the future. Hopefully there will be no
need.”
... ... ...
In the following days, Trump said that he was reluctant to use the Defense Production Act to force corporations to make
products, likening such a move to “nationalizing
our businesses.”
This sucker does not even understand that nationalizing can be a temporary measure:
Trump, March 22: We’re a country not based on nationalizing our business. Call a person over in Venezuela;
ask them how did nationalization of their businesses work out. Not too well. The concept of nationalizing our business is not a
good concept.
Trump, March 26: For the most part, the companies … We say, “We need this,” and they say, “Don’t bother.
We’re going to do it.” I mean, we — we’re dealing with Ford, General Motors, 3M. We’re dealing with great companies. They want to
do this. They want to do this. They’re doing things that — that frankly, they don’t need somebody to walk over there with a —
with a hammer and say, “Do it.” They are getting it done.
“Our fight against the virus is too urgent to allow the give-and-take of the contracting process to continue to run its normal
course,” Trump said in a statement. “GM was wasting time. Today’s action will help ensure the quick production of ventilators that
will save American lives.”
Trump also said the country “will be making over 100,000 pretty quickly.” States have warned of a dangerous shortage of the
breathing machines.
Trump also tapped White House aide Peter Navarro to coordinate policies enacted under the Korean War-era law that gives the
president broad authority to increase the manufacturing output of critical items in times of national emergency, including public
health crises.
“My order establishes that Peter will serve as national Defense Production Act policy coordinator for the federal government,”
Trump said Friday during a White House briefing. “That's a very important position. More important probably than it's almost ever
been in our country.”
All he did is a little bit ruffle GM brass feathers:
TheHill
“As usual with ‘this’ General Motors, things just never seem to work out,” Trump tweeted. “They said they were going to give
us 40,000 much needed Ventilators, “very quickly”. Now they are saying it will only be 6000, in late April, and they want top
dollar. Always a mess with Mary B. Invoke ‘P.’ ”
On Friday, before Trump invoked the DPA, Neil Bradley, the Chamber’s executive vice president and chief policy officer, told
The Hill that the move would be unnecessary.
Because companies had already stepped up to address the country’s needs, Bradley said, the call for more DPA authority is like
a solution in search of a problem, adding, “Should we do something that won’t produce any positive effect just because we can say
we did it?”
On Friday, the Chamber also launched a tool that showcased corporate America’s robust contribution to combat the coronavirus
pandemic.
“When the issue of DPA comes up, it’s a question of would that allow us to do something that we couldn’t otherwise do?”
Bradley said Friday afternoon. “Or [would it] help us meet the needs, at least with respect to increasing production itself? The
answer is no.”
But by Friday evening, Trump signed a presidential memorandum placing at least some of GM’s production lines in the hands of
the Department of Health and Human Services.
Trump’s order directed his administration to use “any and all authority available under the Defense Production Act to require
General Motors to accept, perform, and prioritize Federal contracts for ventilators.”
Companies are required to accept and prioritize contracts from the government and to prioritize “materials, services, and
facilities to promote the national defense or to maximize domestic energy supplies.” While this provision has historically been used
to ramp up military production, in the midst of the COVID19 pandemic the act will be used for medical supplies.
The second provision in the act provides financial measures, such as loans, loan guarantees, purchases, and purchase commitments,
to speed up the production of materials “needed to support national defense and homeland security procurement requirements.”
The act also addresses voluntary agreements – or what the government says is “an association of private interests, approved by
the Government to plan and coordinate actions in support of the national defense.” The proviso permits business competitors to work
together to plan and coordinate measures to increase the supply of materials.
Along with the three main provisions, the act also provides the government with the authority to obtain information from businesses,
authorizes establishment of the National Defense Executive Reserve, and a Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States –
which works on the effects on national security of certain mergers, acquisitions, and takeovers related to foreign investment in
the U.S.
When the act is invoked it requires the administration to file an annual report to Congress on the impact of offsets on the defense
preparedness, industrial competitiveness, employment, and trade from the act.
LONDON – Research to develop a safe, effective, and widely available COVID-19 vaccine
is advancing rapidly. But when it will happen is not clear. Much depends on how we govern the
production and distribution of new drugs. While the World Health Organization's COVID-19
Technology Access Pool promises to foster accessibility, the actual availability of vaccines
and treatments also will hinge on local manufacturing capacity, which in many countries has
been eroded by deindustrialization.
Moreover, while universal testing remains a feasible, cost-effective, and immediately
available method of managing the pandemic until a vaccine arrives, this approach also requires
manufacturing capacity and sound governance in the public interest. Yet even in advanced
economies, over-reliance on the private sector may prevent governments from maximizing test
production and deployment. For example, the British government has proposed a "moon shot"
testing program, yet its actual strategy needs clarification.
Such a mission-oriented approach requires a holistic, systems-level perspective,
particularly when it comes to "wicked problems" like public-health crises and climate change,
which involve a wide range of complex socioeconomic and technological issues. Implementing
universal testing will require contributions from a sprawling network of actors and
institutions. To be truly effective, any such program must be designed to generate systemic
resilience and public value.
As has been demonstrated by the Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer, the epidemiologist
Michael Mina, a recent IMF working paper, and many others, a properly designed universal
testing program could bring the pandemic to an end within just a few months. The missing
ingredients are industrial policies and other government measures to coordinate and steer
production, in order to eliminate the bottlenecks that the private sector faces.
The necessary testing technology of rapid immunodiagnostic tests -- such as saliva-based
antigen tests that are similar to home pregnancy tests and cost less than $5 -- already exists.
Although these tests are sub-optimal in sensitivity compared with the standard polymerase chain
reaction (PCR) tests, they are specific enough to detect infections at scale in settings where
disease prevalence is high; and, crucially, they do not require centralized laboratory
facilities.
Therefore, with a purposeful program design that carefully considers the functionality and
limitations of the technology deployed, rapid tests can enable decentralized universal testing
programs at the community level. For example, tests could be made available free of charge at
local pharmacies, with the expectation that everyone test themselves on a regular basis and
self-isolate if positive. The same kits could be used as "infection-free" passports for
admission to public spaces such as schools and workplaces. In this case, a new market would
likely emerge as airlines, malls, restaurants, and cafes start purchasing cheap, rapid tests so
that they can get back to business.
Rapid testing can help to expand and complement the universal testing strategy already being
rolled out locally (such as the free mandatory testing at MIT and Georgetown University in the
United States, weekly testing of employees at German workplaces, and the population-wide
testing campaign in Wuhan), which currently rely on PCR tests.
Similar strategies need to be launched at the national level, especially in low- and
middle-income countries where the affordability and scalability of molecular testing is low.
Many countries have the capacity to produce a sufficient supply of tests at a cost that would
pale in comparison to those inflicted by the pandemic. The number of tests needed globally over
a year to supply a weekly testing regimen would be equivalent to less than half the number of
cans of soda consumed annually. Moreover, scaling up production of antigen tests could be done
relatively quickly, and would be a minor effort compared to the U.S. mobilization for World War
II.
While billions of dollars are being funneled toward vaccine development and production,
additional funding also must be directed toward strengthening our testing infrastructure. At $5
per unit, the cost of testing the world's population every week would come to around $2
trillion. That is far less than the pandemic-related loss of global income during this period
(as measured by the difference between pre- and post-pandemic growth forecasts) and fiscal
stimulus so far this year, an estimated total of $20 trillion. And these comparisons don't
account for the costs of lost lives or the potential benefits of achieving new economies of
scale in test production -- a spillover that could enable the eradication of the seasonal
flu.
There are potentially steep challenges beyond production, of course. As practical as
universal testing is, any such effort could still come under pressure if governments believe
they must choose between different production needs for vaccines, anti-viral drugs, personal
protective equipment, and expanded medical facilities.
But universal testing must not be viewed as a separate item on a larger list of priorities.
The point of a mission-oriented approach is to create dynamic public-sector capabilities and
strengthen the entire health system at once. New testing capacity should be integrated with
national and local health systems as part of a broader program design, so that each leg of the
strategy supports the others.
More broadly, COVID-19 has underscored the need for a more resilient and responsive
industrial ecosystem that can increase production of essential items quickly. Even under
current conditions, increasing the production of tests and implementing a universal testing
strategy is feasible, and could end the pandemic by year's end, while also creating the
infrastructure needed to ward off future pandemics.
All countries need to adopt a longer-term vision and shore up their manufacturing
capabilities. By leading on this issue, governments can strengthen local productive capacities
and create a new kind of economic commons. The same mission-oriented approach could then be
applied to science policy and industrial strategy, laying the groundwork for more
cross-sectoral innovations and the type of resilient manufacturing that will be needed to
tackle other highly complex global challenges. The days when we could pin all our hopes on
technological fixes are over.
I live in France. From Monday 22nd June people can travel more than 100 kilometers from home
and people from outside the country can enter without travel resrictions.
However when I go out I wear a mask as do many others. People serving in shops wear a face
shield.
As I am one of those persons at risk of death from contracting the Coronavirus, my doctor
has advised me not to allow any visitors from other countries to visit until the Spring of
2021.
I don't know what the figures of infection are but national T.V. has been warning people
of a second infection arriving this winter.
It seems some European countries as was noted above are taking the crisis more seriously
than others.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jun 19 2020 23:09 utc | 44
Europuppets.
I said many times - in the vast majority of cases, the EU (Europe) is propping up and
covering up the US Empire.
They are eager puppets and they can not exist without the Empire. They simply degenerated
due to long puppetry where the US is the Alpha and the Omega and history starts with Big
Daddy US liberating them from themselves in 1945.
"... EU money intended for underfunded public-benefit research such as preparing for a pandemic has been diverted by the pharmaceutical industry into areas where it can make more money, according to a scathing new report. ..."
"... The target of the criticism is the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI), a public-private partnership that was equally funded, between 2008 and 2020, by the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) lobbying group and the European Commission to the tune of 5.3 billion euros (US$5.8 billion). The money is supposed to go to areas of "unmet medical or social need," ..."
"... "We were outraged to find evidence that the pharmaceutical industry lobby EFPIA not only did not consider funding biopreparedness (ie, being ready for epidemics such as the one caused by the new coronavirus, COVID-19) but opposed it being included in IMI's work when the possibility was raised by the European Commission in 2017, ..."
"... "The research proposed by the EC in the biopreparedness topic was small in scope," ..."
"... "IMI's projects have contributed, directly or indirectly, to better prepare the research community for the current crisis, the Ebola+ programme or the ZAPI project." ..."
"... "belated interventions when an epidemic is already underway," ..."
"... Think your friends would be interested? Share this story! ..."
EU money intended
for underfunded public-benefit research such as preparing for a pandemic has been diverted by
the pharmaceutical industry into areas where it can make more money, according to a scathing
new report. Officials in Brussels wanted to co-fund research that would have ensured the
European Union (EU) was better prepared for a pandemic akin to the one we are experiencing
today. But their partners, the big pharmaceutical companies, rejected the proposal, ensuring
that taxpayer money would go instead into studies with more potential for commercial
application. In short big-pharma lobbyists were allowed to steer billions of euros of public
funds as they saw fit, a damning new report claims.
The target of the criticism is the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI), a
public-private partnership that was equally funded, between 2008 and 2020, by the European
Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) lobbying group and the
European Commission to the tune of 5.3 billion euros (US$5.8 billion). The money is supposed to
go to areas of "unmet medical or social need," but, in practice, corporate priorities
dominate the decision-making, according to the
non-governmental organization Corporate Observatory Europe (COE).
"We were outraged to find evidence that the pharmaceutical industry lobby EFPIA not only
did not consider funding biopreparedness (ie, being ready for epidemics such as the one caused
by the new coronavirus, COVID-19) but opposed it being included in IMI's work when the
possibility was raised by the European Commission in 2017, " a new COE report
said.
The rejected proposal would have directed money into refining computer simulations and the
analysis of animal testing models, potentially speeding up regulatory approval of vaccines,
according to the Guardian. But a spokeswoman for the IMI called the report
"misleading".
"The research proposed by the EC in the biopreparedness topic was small in scope,"
she said. "IMI's projects have contributed, directly or indirectly, to better prepare the
research community for the current crisis, the Ebola+ programme or the ZAPI project."
ZAPI, or the Zoonotic Anticipation and Preparedness Initiative, was launched in 2015 with a
budget of 20 million euros (US$21.8 million) after the Ebola epidemic a year prior. The COE
report said it exemplifies a pattern of "belated interventions when an epidemic is already
underway," much like this year's emergency funding of coronavirus research.
The think tank questioned whether EU public money was well applied through IMI. Much of it
went into research into cancer, Alzheimer's disease and diabetes – areas that are
potentially profitable and thus are given close attention by private business. But epidemic
preparedness, HIV/AIDS, and poverty-related and neglected tropical diseases have been
overlooked by the initiative, the report said.
Think your friends would be interested? Share this story!
During the earliest days of the pandemic, when medical journals like
The Lancet were publishing some of the first non-peer-reviewed studies about the virus by
scientists and researchers in China, experts warned about mutations in various strains of the
virus, though they insisted that there was still no evidence to suggest that the virus was
evolving into something more dangerous and more infectious.
Since then, a flood of new research has been published, and scientists have discovered more
discouraging signs of mutation in samples of the virus. And yet, medical experts including Dr.
Anthony Fauci have seemed at times overly eager to dismiss these mutations, and claim - without
evidence - that there was no reason to believe the virus was evolving and changing in a way
that might complicate efforts to create a vaccine.
Which is why we're highlighting this
Bloomberg report from yesterday describing the latest findings from doctors and researchers
in northeastern China who are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in
this new cluster, suggesting that the virus may indeed by changing in unknown ways and
complicating efforts to stamp it out.
It's just one more reason why the notion of keeping economies partially closed until a
vaccine is widely available is simply untenable: Someday, the "believe science" crowd will come
to understand that projections like the model forecasting 3k deaths per day by June are just
that - projections.
And just like stock-market analysts, scientists aren't great at predicting the future,
because projections are never an 'exact' science. But for now, the most important thing to
understand is that we really don't have any idea how long it will take to develop this
vaccine.
The 18-24 months projection parroted by Dr. Fauci and many experts is based on little more
than a hope and a prayer based on their experience with other viruses. Other notable
differences between SARS and SARS-CoV-2 have already been identified: why not this too?
The two biggest differences doctors have noted after studying the 46 cases of the virus
confirmed over the past weeks are that patients take longer to show symptoms, and are taking
longer to recover.
Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the
virus for a longer period of time and take longer to test negative, Qiu Haibo, one of China's
top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.
Patients in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks
observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it
harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the
northern region treating patients.
"The longer period during which infected patients show no symptoms has created clusters of
family infections," said Qiu, who was earlier sent to Wuhan to help in the original outbreak.
Some 46 cases have been reported over the past two weeks spread across three cities - Shulan,
Jilin city and Shengyang - in two provinces, a resurgence of infection that sparked renewed
lockdown measures over a region of 100 million people.
Furthermore, doctors are noticing that patients in the northeast are suffering damage to
their lungs, while in Wuhan, patients exhibited damage in their kidneys, hearts and across
their internal organs.
Qiu said that doctors have also noticed patients in the northeast cluster seem to have
damage mostly in their lungs, whereas patients in Wuhan suffered multi-organ damage across
the heart, kidney and gut.
To be sure, it's unclear whether these differences are the result of mutations in the
virus's genetic code, or are simply a result of the relatively small cluster of patients, and
the fact that doctors are monitoring these patients much more closely than they monitored most
patients in Wuhan.
Scientists still do not fully understand if the virus is changing in significant ways and
the differences Chinese doctors are seeing could be due to the fact that they're able to
observe patients more thoroughly and from an earlier stage than in Wuhan . When the outbreak
first exploded in the central Chinese city, the local health-care system was so overwhelmed
that only the most serious cases were being treated. The northeast cluster is also far
smaller than Hubei's outbreak, which ultimately sickened over 68,000 people.
Still, the findings suggest that the remaining uncertainty over how the virus manifests
will hinder governments' efforts to curb its spread and re-open their battered economies.
China has one of the most comprehensive virus detection and testing regimes globally and yet
is still struggling to contain its new cluster.
Researchers worldwide are trying to ascertain if the virus is mutating in a significant
way to become more contagious as it races through the human population, but early research
suggesting this possibility has been criticized for being overblown.
"In theory, some changes in the genetic structure can lead to changes in the virus
structure or how the virus behaves," said Keiji Fukuda, director and clinical professor at
the University of Hong Kong's School of Public Health. "However, many mutations lead to no
discernible changes at all."
It's likely that the observations in China don't have a simple correlation with a mutation
and "very clear evidence" is needed before concluding that the virus is mutating, he
said.
It's just the latest reminder that so much about this virus remains unknown or poorly
understood, and that projections are just that - educated guesswork. Just like the NYT's 3k
deaths per day projection has already been exposed as wildly off-course .
Coronavirus: US reversal scuppers UN vote on global pandemic ceasefire
The country's delegation declared it could not support the current draft, without further
detail, after nearly two months of difficult negotiation When asked for an explanation of the US move, a State Department official said that
China had 'repeatedly blocked compromises'
The United States has stunned other members of the UN Security Council by preventing a
vote on a resolution for a ceasefire in various conflicts around the world to help troubled
nations better fight the coronavirus pandemic, diplomats said.
Comparing Hong Kong and NY City, and also relates to US response
Article in Naked Capitalism where a correspondent talks with her doctor friend in Hong
Kong. Here is what they did with one case
The doctor is Sarah, the writer is Lynn
I asked her to explain what test and trace means to Hong Kong health authorities.
Sarah Borwein: So we had 21 days with no local cases and then a case was detected 2 days
ago, and now her grand-daughter and husband have tested positive. What they are doing
reflects their strategy:
They did extensive interviews with the index case (the 66 year old grandmother) and
retraced everywhere she'd been in the 2-3 days prior to getting sick – every market
stall etc. She looks after her 5 year old grand-daughter who is also positive – so
they have also traced all her contacts. She attends a tutorial school, so the teachers and
other kids.
And now they are conducting testing for 860 families who live in her housing block or
the grand-daughter's, or work in the market or work in or attend the tutorial center. At
least 5000 people from 1 case!
They actually do something similar whenever we have a local case of dengue fever (not
endemic here) – so they do have practice.
Jerri-Lynn Scofield: So, that's what test and trace means! And not via an app.
Sarah Borwein: No, not via an App
Although there are websites where you can see the locations of all the positive cases,
and any flights etc (including seat number) they have been on – so you can
self-report if you were near them. But mainly they do the shoe-leather work as the
mainstay.
... symptoms such as fever, store throat and coughing to take antipyretics and stay at
home, but invite them to hospital and immediately start treatment by administering
chloroquine to the people in suspicious cases without waiting for the results from the test
results.
Posted by: Blue Dotterel | May 16 2020 14:17 utc | 94
That would make Turkey a very interesting case to watch. Looking on worldometers.info,
Turkey is currently 9th from top in terms of case numbers with 146,457 cases, yet it has only
48 deaths per million, 36th on the list. Russia by comparison has only 17 deaths per million,
65th on the list, but has far higher quality medical care and abundant financial resources.
Turkey is not especially developed, has a large population with many poor, an extremely
serious economic crisis even before Covid, and many political crises. I can remember
suggestions a month or more ago that it could be a serious disaster zone for Covid. How come
it is doing so well? Maybe its treatment policies are worth looking at closely.
Compare USA, home to several key Big Pharma players, top of the charts with 1,487,076
cases, 83,603 deaths (more than the total number of cases that China ever had, most of whom
recovered), 268 deaths per million (currently 13th from top but rising fast). Is it any
wonder that the US death rate is higher?
Here in France, I have the impression that the virus is getting 'tired'. The numbers of
deaths are falling like a stone, down from 6-700 to 160. The curve corresponds to the
prediction of the controversial Pr Raoult of Marseille. He predicts no second wave. He says
he doesn't know why the wave is like that, but observes that it is (perhaps for public
consumption). I would have thought it obvious. Every time the virus replicates, there is a
danger of error in the copy, which renders it less effective for the most part, much as in
human cells. It can happen, of course, that eventually a mutation will happen that reignites
the power of the virus, but most, no.
I would have thought that the same would be true in the US.
Marked "official, sensitive", the 2019 National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) was signed
off by government chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance, as well as a senior national
security adviser to Boris Johnson.
A leaked secret UK Cabinet Office briefing paper reveals Whitehall ministers were warned
in 2019 the UK needed a robust plan to deal with a pandemic virus and its consequences,
with many of its cautions and recommendations directly echoing the issues currently[.]
Recommendations include stockpiling personal protective equipment, inking advanced
purchase agreements for other essential items, establishing procedures for disease
surveillance and contact tracing, dealing with a surge in excess deaths, and repatriating
British nationals caught abroad during an outbreak.[.]
"It seems that many things the Chinese did was science-driven, lessons learned from
SARS 2003 and other epidemics. Their scientists led the moves the political people
enforced."
The Chinese and Wuhan gov. forced people off the streets with iron fists . No one
was immune, incompetent gov. officials were removed. Videos welded doors, locked gate to
prevent people coming out was posted in ZeroHedge and Youtube via Jennifer Zeng, Epoch Times,
Gordon Guthrie Chang, New Tang Dynasty Television, SCMP and Paul Joseph Watson.
Yes, 420,000 seasoned Healthcare workers - doctors, nurses mostly ICU experiences.
CGTN The Point host Liu Xin was on the ground last week in Wuhan interviewed
people, found senior over 80-yrs and even 100-old survives. The care, kindnesses were
genuine - The decision was top down edict and Chinese citizens sacrificed their freedom even
during Chinese New Year eve.
Three touching videos reminded my girls.- about a young mother contacted covir19 and no
one caring for her baby. Both families hers and spouse were contacted. I believe 9 nurses
took turn caring for the babies. Two more videos available - returned after 14-days
quarantines. BTW it's free absolute FREE the States and/or insurance paid everything.
Should we allow our gov. does the same here - Absolutely NO , I dun trust the
republican or the democrats. Democracy is dead! I sound contradicting and double standard?
Not necessary it's in another debates....
An Israel broacast interview featuring a high level Mossad operative is making waves in the
region after an intelligence official admitted using "a little" theft to obtain medical
protective equipment in the fight against coronavirus, which has been in short supply
globally.
There's been controversy raging over just how Israel has been able to stay well-stocked of
personal protective equipment (PPE), test kits, and ventilators even as the rest of the world,
including the US and Canada, runs out. This after late last month Israeli media widely reported
"The Mossad purchased 10 million medical masks" in a "sensitive" operation , as
The Jerusalem Post reported March 30. "In addition to the 10 million medical masks, the
Mossad brought a few dozen ventilators, tens of thousands of test kits and some 25,000 N95
surgical masks that are designed to protect the wearer from airborne particles and liquid," the
controversial J
erusalem Post report explained. "It expects to bring more medical equipment to the country.
Mossad Director Yossi Cohen heads a special command center along with other national security
units and the Health Ministry."
The revelations and reports have enraged surrounding Middle East countries, with Turkey's
TRT World reporting Wednesday the following of the
recent Israeli TV interview :
In an interview with Israel's Channel 12, a Mossad operative, identified only as H, said
that Israelis would face no shortage in dealing with the virus.
"In the world in general there will be a great shortage. People are dying because of a
lack of equipment. In Israel people won't go without,"
H said .
When asked about the means Mossad intelligence operatives had used in obtaining protective
equipment, the agent refused to give details. When pressed further on whether such means may
have included theft of supplies from other countries, H said: "We stole, but only a
little."
And a prior story in Israel's Haaretz
also confirmed the stunning admission by the Mossad official, who only went by a pseudonym.
The interview had been conducted by reporter Ilana Dayan for the investigative journalism
series Uvda , as Haaretz explained in its Ventilators
by Cloak-and-dagger :
The Mossad agents boasted about stealing medical equipment ordered by other countries. As
Dayan chuckled, "H.," the head of Mossad's technology division, said with a wink: "We stole,
but only a little." The senior spy, who admitted that until a few days ago he didn't know
what a ventilator was, who says "me and him went" and thinks jarred baby food is given by
injection, explained: "We don't steal in that manner ... to put a hand on supplies that
someone else ordered."
A number of countries, including the United States, have lately moved to ban all exports of
personal protective gear and equipment like ventilators as the countries don't have enough to
meet their own demand amid the massive influx of Covid-19 hospitalizations.
This likely only served to increase Israeli's intelligence underhanded and covert tactics in
procuring their own. Previously The New York Times said the Mossad "used international
contacts" to avert possible shortages , more recently admitting
that "Mr. Cohen's [Mossad director] powerful agency, it turns out, has been deeply involved
in Israel's fight against the virus, and has been one of the country's most valuable assets in
acquiring medical equipment and manufacturing technology abroad, according to Israeli medical
and security officials."
No doubt these operations to intervene in the global medical supply chain go the other way
too - as in likely Mossad is simultaneously attempting to intercept and sabotage much needed
supplies going to enemies like Iran or Syria .
Germany begins opening up. Why? Because they have data; real data; not the nonsense that our
media has been pushing.
From the article "Ms Merkel's announcement makes Germany the latest European nation to
start easing restrictions:
Denmark has reopened schools and nurseries for children up to the age of 11
Construction and manufacturing work is back under way in Spain
Thousands of smaller shops in Austria reopened on Tuesday, and the country will allow outdoor
sport such as tennis, golf and athletics from 1 May
Some regions in Italy have reopened bookshops and children's clothing stores"
Actually there are some hints that the virus even stays longer in (some?) people's bodies
(like herpes?). These are contagious even after the 14 days. There had been cases of people
in South Korea that left hospital after covid-19 recovery but tested positive again.
And now they have made this experience in Italy too and therefore might keep up the lockdown
for 2 more weeks:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-do-italians-test-positive-after-symptoms-are-long-gone?ref=scroll
"Even if the mortality rate among older people is significantly higher, the number of
deaths would be enormous if the spread among younger people were to continue unabated. "We
would have to reckon with well over 100,000 deaths among those under 60 years of age alone
- this can be deduced from the data available to us on this infection," warned DGI board
member Gerd Fätkenheuer."
A very tricky situation. That won't work out well without forcing the rich towards
solidarity. If only the state pays for food security etc than normal people will have to pay
deps (as taxes) for a hundred years to come at least and the same idiot governments will keep
cutting financial help for public infrastructure like health care, education, care of the
elderly towards stone-age level.
Russia
confirmed 3,448 new coronavirus infections on Thursday, bringing the country's official
number of cases to 27,938 and marking the fifth consecutive one-day record in new cases.
President Vladimir Putin postponed a landmark military parade to mark the 75th
anniversary of Soviet victory in World War II as Russia struggles to contain the rapid spread
of the coronavirus.
Moscow authorities said they have switched to random checks of public transit
passengers' quarantine passes rather than checking each person's pass after large queues
formed outside metro stations during rush hour Wednesday.
More updates
-- Russian tech giant Yandex will start delivering coronavirus tests to the homes of Moscow
residents aged 65 and older. The first 10,000 tests will be delivered at no cost, the company
said, and the test delivery service will later be expanded to all age groups.
-- Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin signed a decree to provide the
city's doctors with free taxi rides to and from work, as well as free hotel accommodation,
during the coronavirus outbreak.
-- President Vladimir Putin believes the global coronavirus pandemic is an opportunity for
his country to work together with the United States, the Kremlin said. U.S. President Donald
Trump on Wednesday offered to send ventilators to Russia.
-- One-third of all coronavirus infections in the Leningrad region are concentrated in a
crowded hostel that houses migrant workers involved in construction at an IKEA-owned shopping
mall, local media
reported .
... ... ... -- The Murmansk region will use electronic bracelets to monitor the movements of
coronavirus patients self-isolating at home and people suspected of having the coronavirus, the
investigative Novaya Gazeta newspaper
reported .
-- The head of Moscow's main coronavirus hospital has
recovered from the virus two weeks after he tested positive.
-- Nine doctors at a hospital in the Moscow region have been infected with coronavirus, the
RBC news website reported
Tuesday. Doctors there had complained that the hospital doesn't isolate patients suspected of
having coronavirus and that there's a shortage of personal protective equipment.
At least 170 doctors and patients at a hospital in central Russia have tested positive for
coronavirus in preliminary tests, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported .
-- The head doctor at Moscow's Davydovsky hospital, Yelena Vasiliyeva, has tested positive
for coronavirus, the Mash Telegram channel reported . Because she continued to work and attend
conferences while waiting for the test results, more than 500 patients and doctors who were in
contact with her are now self-quarantining and getting tested for the virus.
Turkey has ordered all citizens to wear masks when shopping or visiting crowded public
places and announced it will start to deliver masks to every family, free of charge, as
infections sharply increase in the country of 80 million.
Turkey has over 30,000 confirmed cases of the virus and has registered 649 deaths. More than
1,300 patients are in intensive care units and at least 600 medical workers have been infected,
according to figures released by the Health Ministry.
The number of cases places Turkey among the top 10 worst
affected countries , a sharp rise since its first confirmed death from the disease on March
17.
Health Minister Fahrettin Koca, however, said on Monday that the increase in confirmed cases
was low when compared with the increase in testing, which has been ramped up to more than
20,000 per day.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has introduced measures to contain the spread of the virus,
asking people to stay at home and imposing a curfew on those over 65 and under 20, but
resisting a nationwide lockdown.
i think everyone is watching the experiment in sweden, but i am curious how much testing
they are doing???
Posted by: james | Apr 5 2020 22:21 utc | 70
At the worldometers site you can reorder the data according to any column of your choice,
which can be quite interesting. But the problem I think is that most of the data out there is
of pretty low quality/value. What is desperately needed is lots of random (but carefully
balanced) testing to find out what the base level of Covid in the population is. Only with
that information can you give reliable meaning to the data that is being bandied about - I
think the powers that be are discouraging such investigations because it interferes with
their scaremongering tactics. The result is that the media can publish outrageously
unbalanced articles and they are less easy to discredit. Without knowing how prevalent the
virus is (asymptomatic cases and symptomatic cases that are too mild to be noticed) in
society as a whole, the whole statistics get seriously distorted. The only possible result is
misinformation and deception.
Another important point is that a simple statistic of how many tests are being done is
beside the point - what matters is that WHO is being tested, how they are connected with
potential cases, and how contacts are being traced. Intricately and necessarily linked with
that is the isolation of communities and the converse question of to what extent testing and
tracing are used to determine who needs to be isolated. Those three tools - tracing, testing,
and isolating - are and must be inextricably linked, and planned as a triad. They cannot be
separated. If they are separated all three become useless (and even dangerous, in the case of
the isolating, because of the dangerous secondary effects). That is why China was so
successful - because they had fantastic methods of tracing contacts, and used that to make
optimal use of (initially) limited testing, and avoided excessive isolating. In China as I
understood isolating was relatively relaxed except where conditions necessitated that it be
strict, and even then the strictness was proportionate to the problem.
Mark2 posted an interesting article in the Lancet (or BMJ?) recently - a proposal to
introduce weekly testing of the entire UK population - instead of trying to get so-called
vaccines (I say so-called because in my opinion vaccines are no solution at all, and have
more negative value than positive value, as long as they are on the existing Big Pharma
model). The proposal as I say was interesting, and in my view an excellent approach, but
again it could only work if fully integrated with local community monitoring and contact
tracing of positive cases (which of course was an integral part of the proposal).
Coming back to Sweden: if you play around with the worldometer data by sorting according
to different columns, you find that Sweden comes substantially higher in the list (when
ordered worst from the top) with respect to deaths per million population, compared to other
factors like total cases, total deaths, cases per million, total tests, etc etc. That
superficially does not look good for Sweden. However as I pointed out previously the virus is
highly temperature dependent, and Sweden is a cold country. What happens today is dependent
in large measure on temperatures significantly earlier - not just because of the delay
between infection and symptoms/potential death, but also because of the exponential change
over time. Therefore Sweden is not a fair comparison with warmer countries - Norway or
Finland would be fairer (but statistically less reliably because the numbers are reuduced).
In any event Sweden in February is still cold, and cold means an environment in which Covid
best thrives. On the other hand there is a large chance element in what infection contacts
arrive and how they are propagated, who takes good precautions and who not. Therefore any
comparison between countries is suspect unless the effect is very strong.
(By the way James, thanks for responding to that comment of mine a few days ago, I
appreciated it even though I didn't mention it at the time because of reading on a
mobile!)
It's likened to a scene from an apocalypse. Wuhan -- a city more populous than London or New
York -- placed in 'lockdown' following the outbreak of the new and deadly coronavirus.
While dated March 8, this alarmist documentary provides interesting opinion of Hong Kong
based professor who is expert in SARC. He suspect that that up to 60^ of population can be
infected.
You can ignore fearmongering, but it is interesting to see that there were free handout of
masks and sanitizer. In Hong Kong, not in the USA.
"... By mid-March, the administration was promising at least 5 million tests by the end of the month. An independent analysis of totals on 30 March, however, indicate only a million tests have been conducted. That's more than any other country but the US population is roughly 329 million people. ..."
"... "I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead," he said. ..."
"... In January and February, as the viral outbreak devastated Chinese manufacturing and began exacting a high toll in Italy, the president repeatedly downplayed the threat to the US. Following the first few American cases, Trump and other administration officials said the situation was under control and would dissipate in the summer "like a miracle". ..."
"... College students on spring break from classes packed Florida beaches. New York City residents filled subway cars. A church in Louisiana continues to welcome thousands despite pastor Tony Spell being criminally cited for violating an order limiting the size of gatherings. ..."
"... "If I get corona, I get corona," one Florida beachgoer told CBS News in mid-March. "At the end of the day, I'm not going to let it stop me from partying." ..."
"... Universities that sent students home to their families may have contributed to the spread of the virus by returning infected individuals to cities, neighborhoods and homes not yet in full lockdown. ..."
"... The lack of clarity in the president's order to halt entry into the US from Europe - which at first seemed to apply US citizens as well as foreign nationals - led to a crushing crowds at airports where unscreened infected passengers could easily transit the disease to others. ..."
"... Decisions like those may have had dire consequences, hampering efforts to contain the spread of the disease throughout the nation - the public health equivalent of throwing petrol on an already raging fire. ..."
Masks, gloves, gowns and ventilators. Doctors and hospitals across the country, but particularly in
areas hardest hit by the pandemic, are scrambling for items essential to help those stricken by the
virus and protect medical professionals.
The lack of adequate supplies has forced healthcare workers to reuse existing sanitary garb or
create their own makeshift gear. A shortage of ventilators has state officials worried they will soon
be forced into performing medical triage, deciding on the fly who receives the life-sustaining support
- and who doesn't.
On Tuesday, New York Governor
Andrew Cuomo complained that states, along with the federal government, were competing for equipment,
driving up prices for everyone.
"It's like being on eBay with 50 other states, bidding on a ventilator," he said.
It didn't have to be this way, says Jeffrey Levi, a professor of health policy and management at
George Washington University. The US government failed to adequately maintain the stockpile of
supplies necessary to deal with a pandemic like this - and then moved too slowly when the nature of
the current crisis became apparent.
"We lost many weeks in terms of ramping up the production capacity around personal protection
equipment and never fully utilizing government authority to make sure that production took place," he
says.
Testing delays
According to Professor Levi, ramping up testing at an early date - as done in nations like South
Korea and Singapore - is the key to controlling a viral outbreak like Covid-19. The inability of the
US government to do so was the critical failure from which subsequent complications have cascaded.
"All of pandemic response is dependent on situational awareness - knowing what is going on and
where it is happening," he says.
Without this information, public health officials are essentially flying blind, not knowing where
the next viral hotspot will flare up. Comprehensive testing means infected patients can be identified
and isolated, limiting the need for the kind of sweeping state-wide shelter-in-place orders that have
frozen the US economy and led to millions of unemployed workers.
Levi says the responsibility for this failure lies squarely with the Trump administration, which
disregarded pandemic response plans dating back more than a decade to the George W Bush presidency and
failed to fully staff its public health bureaucracy.
"The political leadership in this administration really doesn't believe in government," Levi says.
"That has really hampered their willingness to harness the resources the federal government had to
respond at a time like this."
The numbers, particularly on testing, bear this out. The initial tests sent in February to just a
handful of US laboratories by the administration were faulty.
By mid-March, the administration was promising at least 5 million tests by the end of the month. An
independent analysis of totals on 30 March, however, indicate only a million tests have been
conducted. That's more than any other country but the US population is roughly 329 million people.
What's more, because of crush of testing that has followed the initial shortages, the labs that
analyse the results have been overwhelmed, leading to delays of a week or more before tested
individuals can learn if they have the virus.
At his press conference on Tuesday afternoon, Donald Trump offered a grim outlook for the nation.
"I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead," he said.
His public health advisers followed that statement up with charts predicting at least 100,000
American deaths from the virus even under the current mitigating efforts.
The president's comments stood in stark contrast to remarks even just a week earlier, when he
expressed hope that the US could begin to reopen businesses by the mid-April Easter holiday.
In January and February, as the viral outbreak devastated Chinese manufacturing and began exacting
a high toll in Italy, the president repeatedly downplayed the threat to the US. Following the first
few American cases, Trump and other administration officials said the situation was under control and
would dissipate in the summer "like a miracle".
Inconsistent messages from the top are a real problem, Professor Levi says. "Pandemic preparedness
is a constantly changing environment, and sometimes your message does change. In this case, however,
you've also had whiplash around messages that are not necessarily reflecting a change in the science
or what's happening on the ground, but instead reflecting political concerns."
The president has also feuded with Democratic state governors, criticising New York's Andrew Cuomo
and belittling Michigan's Gretchen Whitmer on Twitter. He said state leaders needed to be
"appreciative" of the federal government.
College students on spring break from classes packed Florida beaches. New York City residents
filled subway cars. A church in Louisiana continues to welcome thousands despite pastor Tony Spell
being criminally cited for violating an order limiting the size of gatherings.
"The virus, we believe, is politically motivated," Spell told a local television station. "We hold
our religious rights dear, and we are going to assemble no matter what someone says."
Across the country, there have been numerous examples of Americans failing to heed the calls by
public health professionals to avoid close social contact, sometimes abetted by local and state
government officials who have been reluctant to order businesses to shutter and citizens to shelter in
place.
"If I get corona, I get corona," one Florida beachgoer told CBS News in mid-March. "At the end of
the day, I'm not going to let it stop me from partying."
US students on spring break defy COVID-19
warnings
Even steps taken with the best
of intentions might have had adverse consequences. Curtailing public-transportation services, such as
New York's subway, may have led to trains and busses that were more crowded. Universities that sent
students home to their families may have contributed to the spread of the virus by returning infected
individuals to cities, neighborhoods and homes not yet in full lockdown.
The lack of clarity in the president's order to halt entry into the US from Europe - which at first
seemed to apply US citizens as well as foreign nationals - led to a crushing crowds at airports where
unscreened infected passengers could easily transit the disease to others.
Decisions like those may have had dire consequences, hampering efforts to contain the spread of the
disease throughout the nation - the public health equivalent of throwing petrol on an already raging
fire.
The Navy announced it has relieved the captain who sounded the alarm about an outbreak of
COVID-19 aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt. Capt. Brett Crozier, who commands the Roosevelt, an
aircraft carrier with a crew of nearly 5,000, was relieved of his command Thursday, but he will
keep his rank and remain in the Navy. Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said Crozier was removed
by his decision.
The US military STARTED the virus at Ft Detrick and then spread it to China via the 320
soldiers they sent to Wuhan in Oct,,,,faq the US military, they work for Israel!!
That makes no sense at all considering that now in Palestine,
the Orthodox Jews are the most infected group and also
considering how the colonizing Jews would love to completely
eradicate the Palestinians, they would have introduced the virus
in the Palestinian community to eliminate them
Umm......"will be"?
Good to know they will be ready for today sometime tomorrow. FFS
Time to cut defense spending in 1/2 and use that money to ACTUALLY help America and
Americans
It's about priorities.
Cost of 1 B2 bomber 1+ billion dollars
Cost of 80,000 ventilators 1 billion dollars
Cost of 1 hospital ship/train 100 million dollars
Cost of N95 respirator 1 dollar 80 cent
So far we have used the B2 to bomb Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya.
10 hospital ships/trains could be deployed and save countless American lives in
hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, earthquakes, and yes....pandemics.
1 B2 bomber can bomb a village in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosov....etc, with a GDP less than
50k
It'd sure be nice if we could trade in a couple of B2 bombers for 2 dozen hospitals,
80,000 ventilators, or a couple billion N95 respirators right now
"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the
final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not
clothed." Dwight D. Eisenhowe
President Trump on Sunday said he wants Americans to stay at home until April 30, abandoning
his hope of opening up businesses by Easter as modeling suggested the U.S. coronavirus death
toll could reach tens of thousands and peak two weeks from now.
He said the White House will release a new strategy for states by Tuesday and hopes to have
the economy on its way to recovery by June 1.
It's a sudden and somber shift for Mr. Trump, who on March 16 said he wanted Americans to
work and learn at home, avoid nonessential travel and use takeout instead of entering
restaurants through March 31.
On March 4, Angela Merkel banned all exports of medical equipment from her
companies. Part of those orders were already agreed with Spanish companies.
On March 4, Germany made the decision to ban any export of medical devices outside
its borders. No masks, no disposable gowns, no respirators, no serums. Nothing .. In
Spain, Health authorities recognized 160 cases of coronavirus and ensured that there
would be no explosion of infections. In Italy, the authorities were considering closing
schools and universities. And while, Germany gathered and stayed in that movement with
the items that several Spanish companies had committed to healthcare providers located
in the country.
Thus, as this newspaper has been able to confirm, the American multinational 3M,
based in Minnesota but with its main European factories located in Germany, alerted its
distributors and large customers, both Spanish and the rest of Europe, two days later.
"This decision by the German government will likely impact 3M's ability to ensure the
timely delivery of these products".
The multinational is possibly the world's most recognized supplier of materials such
as self-filtering masks, face shields, or surgical gowns. In his brief, 3M's
Europe-wide commercial director warned customers that there would be supply problems
due to the decision made in Germany both for these products and for surgical gowns,
particle masks, safety glasses or protective suits.
Spanish orders
At that time, the company had already committed several games with Spanish
multinationals, who use their masks regularly to protect their workers in jobs related
to different industries, in addition to healthcare. But for two days now, nothing that
could have been used to fight the Covid-19 could have left Germany.
On the same day, France took a similar measure and also banned the export of
medical supplies, masks, or any other type of product that would help fight the
pandemic outside its borders. Even to its partners in the European Union.
On March 13, a week after that decision was made, the European Commission
negotiated with France and Germany to lift the veto on health exports. It was a gesture
without much real value since at that time, Germany had already centralized the
purchase of medical supplies and had taken over the majority stock of products that
could help combat the pandemic. It should be remembered that the German business fabric
represents a quarter of the entire European Union.
The German government's decision agrees with two moments lived shortly afterwards in
international politics: the European summit of March 27 in which Germany and the
Netherlands refused to allow the economic debt generated by the Coronavirus to be
supported by all the member states of the European Union, and subsequent statements by
the President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, who appealed to the
solidarity of all members of the EU to try to fight the pandemic, even talking about a
new "Marshall Plan" to rebuild Europe.
"On what it is not true the alleged lack of foresight by the Spanish government esgrimmed
by the economic representative of The Netherlands and thrown with not few despice in the
face of the Spanish representative in the last European "tele-summit":
Germany forbade selling face masks to Spain and Italy and then bought those items
On March 4, Angela Merkel banned all exports"
++++++
And what action did the Spanish Government take, in the months prior to March 4th, to
prepare for what they had been repeatedly warned would be coming?
No action whatsoever it seems. Not even the most basic of precautions regarding
incoming holidaymakers. Nothing at all. Raking in the Tourist money was more important
than protecting themselves. Everyone else in Europe is supposed to protect Spain while
the Spainish did nothing to provide protection for themselves
So the nonstop Spanish whinging is sounding very hollow indeed
Spain should have started forbidding mass meetings before, but, as you can test by the
article provided, they have already started making their purchase of medical supplies way
before March4th, but was Germany who held those buyouts hostage to then centralize the
market. That is monopolizing ( as they did by dismantling all the indutrial fabric of the
GDR, btw, this is an old dream of the Germans, monopolizing industry and this is hw we
were ordered to dismantle all our undustrial faric once entered into the EU, especially
our dairy and hard metal industry, so as to not compite with the German one...) and goes
not only against the laws of free market but also, I fear against those of the EU.
All in all, none country started mass quaratine measures when they had only 160 known
case of Covid-19, not even China, not even Russia, so claimed here fro its good
management by so many. Russia started quaratining people, and that in Moscow at the
heights of 500-600 known cases.
It seems that what has happened to Spain is that she has been applied some additional
obstacles to jump over by her presumed allies in the EU and NATO, and also by some
autonomous administrations, like that governing in Madrid, of the far-right ideology, and
opposed to the current central government.
clickkid
•Contrary to media reports, the register of German intensive care units also shows no increased
occupancy. Citizen journalists visited completely abandoned Covid19 admission centres in Berlin clinics.
An employee of a Munich clinic explained that they had been „waiting for weeks for the wave to hit", but
that there was „no increase in patient numbers". He said that the politicians' statements did not
correspond with their own experience, and that the „myth of the killer virus" could „not be confirmed"
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Willem
Germany is a weird outlier and I am happy for them that they are an outlier. But I can tell you that
many ICs in NL are completely full.-
citation needed -ed
I wonder, was there a hotspot in
Germany of cases with covid19, as there was in NL (Eindhoven)?
Now the hotspot in Eindhoven is attributed to carnaval (packed places), but in Germany they also
have carnaval, or was carnaval cancelled in Germany?
I am struggling with understanding these hotspots .
Willem
Here is a ref from the Dutch Health inspectorate.
And then I also have my own eyes, although I can imagine that you do not count that as evidence (but it does for me).
And yes I changed my mind
As explained in the other thread I do believe that the disease is real, but mild, not any worse than flu.
And I am very suspicious about the timing of all of it. It is, as if, somebody knew what was coming. If so, they have total
control of the narrative: then they know what causes it, how it can be stopped and how it will be stopped. My prediction is
that it will stop soon as the virus (it seems) cannot resist temps >20C. I also think they don't want this to last much longer
as that might lead to uncontrolled social unrest. So it has to stop. It is like as if they are following a script and it all
works well for them doesn't it?
And that is why I ask about the hotspots.
Eindhoven doesn't have much air pollution, so that doesn't follow Milan or Wuhan either. What does?
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Apr 1, 2020 9:05 PM
Willem
Actually this is even a better citation
See page 17: 1200 IC beds in NL while there are usual only 1100 (but upschaled to 1600 now)
You are right about the importance of citations. They are there, I should take the time to actually show them here.
I still don't understand the hotspot though..
clickkid
No, carnival was not cancelled in Germany.
According to the official story the first cases in Germany – apart from the
few at Webasto in Bavaria in January who all recovered – were at Heinsberg near the Durch border. The People in question
apparently brought it back from holiday in Italy , and spread it at a carnival occasion in February.
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Apr 1, 2020 7:12 PM
clickkid
Not just Germany. From today:
"•Also in Swiss clinics, no increased occupancy has been observed so far. A visitor to the
cantonal hospital in Lucerne reports that there is „less activity than in normal times". Entire floors have been closed for
Covid19, but staff „are still waiting for patients". The hospitals in Bern, Basel, Zug and Zurich have also been „cleaned
out". Even in Ticino, the intensive care units are not working to capacity, but patients are now being transferred to the
empty German-Swiss departments. From a purely medical point of view, this makes little sense."
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
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Apr 1, 2020 7:15 PM
Willem
The IC units in NL are filled. I know that because I count that. But the IC units that are filled, are mainly filled
with patients around the Eindhoven area. If the Eindhoven area would not be in the Netherlands, we would have a
different situation, perhaps similar to Germany.
So that is why I am so puzzled about the Eindhoven region. What
happened there?
Was it carnaval? People who returned from Northern Italy (skiing)? Those are options that could be true. But if people
in Germany gonskiing in Northern Italy and celebrate carnaval, why isn't there a hotspot in Germany?
It could all be coincidence. But coincidence is a weasel word for saying that you don't know what happened.
clickkid
Mitigation could also increase the final death toll – again accepting the official story – through its effect on slowing the
development of herd immunity in a population.
Of course back in the real world hospitals in countries such as Switzerland
and Germany don't seem to be having much of a problem dealing with rhose caseloads you mention as my comments elsewhere on
this article illustrate,
Even in Italy:
"•In Italy the situation is now beginning to calm down. As far as is known, the temporarily increased mortality rates (65+)
were rather local effects, often accompanied by mass panic and a breakdown in health care. A politician from northern Italy
asks, for example, „how is it possible that Covid patients from Brescia are transported to Germany, while in the nearby Verona
two thirds of intensive care beds are empty?""
-- -- –
To highlight:
"how is it possible that Covid patients from Brescia are transported to Germany, while in the nearby Verona two thirds of
intensive care beds are empty?""
In an astounding plea for help, the captain of the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Theodore
Roosevelt has urged top command of the US Navy to take drastic action after more than 100
sailors aboard the ship have been infected with the coronavirus .
More than a week ago it started with a handful of COVID-19 cases, which by the end of the
week spiked to 36, causing the West Pacific-deployed carrier to dock at a naval station at
Guam, ordering infected crew members out of the some 5,000 total into makeshift quarantine
facilities, including a basketball gym hastily transformed for that purpose. The San Francisco
Chronicle has obtained and published excerpts of an unprecedented plea for help written by the
USS Roosevelt's Captain Brett Crozier
to Pentagon leadership :
"This will require a political solution but it is the right thing to do," wrote Capt.
Brett Crozier, a Santa Rosa native, from Guam where his 1,092-foot carrier Theodore Roosevelt
docked following a COVID-19 outbreak. "We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die. If we
do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset -- our
Sailors."
In the letter Capt. Crozier
warned that "Due to a warship's inherent limitations of space... the spread of the diseast
is ongoing and accelerating." The SF Chronicle described that the letter was issued Monday as
the captain fears there will be possible deaths among crew under his command if more resources
aren't immediately allocated.
It is unclear as yet how many of the crew have been quarantined on land at Guam, and how
many still remain aboard the docked carrier. But it appears the ongoing attempts at quarantine
and containment are not going fast enough, with less than necessary resources employed.
Previously General John Hyten, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
said testing of the entire crew is expected to take a week minimum.
Update (1638ET): Ford is responding to pressure from the Trump administration (after Trump
mostly went after rival GM and its CEO Mary Barra) to step up and build medically necessary
equipment, by announcing that under a partnership with GE, it plans to build 15,000 ventilators
over the next 100 days.
The ventilators will be built at a plant in Michigan in cooperation with GE's healthcare
unit. The companies will then build 30,000 per month as needed to treat patients afflicted with
the coronavirus, but hope to finish at least 15,000 over the next 100 days as they're just
starting up, as
Reuters reported.
Ford said the simplified ventilator design, which is licensed by GE Healthcare from
Florida-based Airon Corp and has been cleared by the FDA, can meet the needs of most COVID-19
patients.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a request Saturday night asking
residents of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to curtail non-essential travel in order to
help limit the spread of the coronavirus.
It delivered the details of what President Donald Trump called a "strong travel advisory"
for the three states.
" to refrain from non-essential domestic travel for 14 days effective immediately," the
Atlanta-based agency said on its website Saturday around 10 p.m. EDT.
It noted, "This Domestic Travel Advisory does not apply to employees of critical
infrastructure industries, including but not limited to trucking, public health professionals,
financial services, and food supply."
The CDC said the governors of the tri-state area "will have full discretion to implement
this Domestic Travel Advisory."
The 1918-1920 Spanish Flu devastated India after infected WW1 Soldiers who returned to
India spread it by traveling in trains to reach their homes. A similar mass movement is going
on now by way of migrant workers.
BRASILIA/SAO PAULO (Reuters) - President Jair Bolsonaro on Wednesday blasted as criminals
the governors and mayors of Brazil's largest states and cities for imposing lockdowns to
slow the coronavirus outbreak, as tensions with his health minister simmered.[.]
The death toll rose to 57 from 46 while confirmed cases rose to 2,433 from 2,201 the day
before.[.]
"Other viruses have killed many more than this one and there wasn't all this commotion,"
Bolsonaro told journalists. "What a few mayors and governors are doing is a crime. They're
destroying Brazil."
Mostly likely Jair has a luxuriously stocked bunker in the mountains.
@ Posted by: Likklemore | Mar 29 2020 19:26 utc | 38
There's an open class struggle going on in Brazil right now.
After successfully destroying the left-wing, the Brazilian right-wing is again
divided.
On one side, there's Brazilian big business - the "center-right" ("centrists",
"moderates") - right now being led by São Paulo's governor, billionaire and playbody
João Doria, who's defending a full lockdown, whatever it takes to containg the
COVID-19 etc. etc. For context, São Paulo is still by far the richest State of Brazil,
and the Brazilian bourgeois' Festung , to which they successfully fell back each time
the Worker's Party (PT) won the federal elections in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014 and launched a
counter attack that ultimately destroyed the PT and thus the Brazilian Left.
The Brazilian right will thus go where São Paulo leads them, and the main MSM, Rede
Globo (which is from Rio de Janeiro, because it is a relic of the military dictatorship era)
is also backing him.
On the other side, there's president Jair Bolsonaro himself. After losing support from big
business thanks to his failed economic policies, he's now trying to rally support from the
last chunk of his supporter base: the petit bourgeoisie and a good chunk of the
lumpenproletariat.
The center of the dispute lies into this: big business can afford to be at a two month
plus lockdown because they have the cash reserves necessary to do so, but small and medium
business do not. Big business wants to extend the lockdown the most possible because, by
wiping out small and medium business, a new vital space for capitalist expansion could open
up (akin to a mini post-war reconstruction). Small and medium businesses obviously don't want
that, so they are doubling down on the "it's just a flu"/"people die anyway" narrative in
order to force the working class to go back to work.
The working class is equally divided: the unionised workers have rights and can afford to
be in home quarantine, but the informal workers do not. Among the informal workers, there's
also a wide array of conditions: from those who have de facto some basic rights to those who
have absolutely none. Those who have no rights obviously want to go back to work, as that's
better than to starve to death.
The "National Interest" is published be The Center for the National Interest
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Henry Kissinger, Honorary Chairman
Maurice R. Greenberg, Chairman Emeritus
Drew Guff, Chairman
Richard Plepler, Vice Chairman
Dov Zakheim, Vice Chairman
Senator Pat Roberts
Graham Allison
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General Charles Boyd
Ambassador Richard Burt
Kris Elftmann
Jacob Heilbrunn
David Keene
Admiral Michael Mullen
Julie Nixon Eisenhower
Grover Norquist
William Ruger
Paul J. Saunders
Dimitri K. Simes
J. Robinson West
David Zalaznick
Hundreds of thousands of face masks intended for Italy to help with the coronavirus
emergency have been stuck since 3 March at Ankara airport. Turkey 's government has decided
that only the Minister of Health can allow the export of face masks to protect from coronavirus
and this authorisation has not arrived yet,
Corriere della Sera reports.
The Italian embassy in Ankara is working to solve the problem. Italian PM Giuseppe Conte
also called on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to unlock the situation but without
any results. The face masks, which Italian company Comitec paid 670,000 euros to Turkish
company Ege Mask, were aimed at the hospitals in Pesaro and Rimini, two cities severely hit by
the virus. Comitec can not ask for a refund because the masks have been delivered but they are
stuck in the customs zone of Ankara's airport following the order of the Turkish
authorities.
While blocking 200,000 masks for Italy, Turkey said it can produce around 50 million of face
masks in seven days thanks to 30 companies, and could provide almost the entire Italian
population with a face mask, the General manager of the Turkish producer Ege Mask said.
Therefore, producing the masks Turkey needs is not a problem for Ankara but its latest move
can be seen as yet another message of defiance to Europe .
So far in one month The USA has less then 200K cases. So in order to have millions cases
exponential growth need to continue unabated. With the measures taken after March 11 it is
unlearn what will be the trajectory of the virus epidemic.
"But it's such a moving target and you could so easily be wrong...what we do know is we have
a serious problem in New York, we have a serious problem in New Orleans and we're going to be
developing serious problems in other areas. Although people like to model it, let's just look
at the data that we have, and not worry about these worst case and best case scenarios."
Dr. Fauci also cautioned the public about how to interpret models:
"There are things called models, and when someone creates a model, they put in various
assumptions. And the model is only as good and as accurate as your assumptions."
"And whenever the modelers come in, they give a worst case scenario and a best case
scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the
diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case scenario actually came out. They always
overshoot."
Dr. Fauci stressed that Trump's hope to reopen the country by Easter will greatly depend on
whether the public complies with the 'shelter in place' recommendations, though he said he
greatly doubts that the US will be able to reopen by next week (Easter is April 12, still a
couple of weeks away)
so long as we continue to embrace a lockdown strategy, generous relief is key to securing
widespread support for its maintenance. It will become politically impossible to sustain a
government-mandated lockdown where workers are forced to stay at home, absent some income
support to facilitate compliance with that order."
or failing that
Auerback says: "nor is there provision for the self-employed or the millions of
independent contractor workers who have no employee benefits."
But he has just linked to a NY Times piece that says: "Are gig workers, freelancers and
independent contractors covered?
Yes, self-employed people are newly eligible for unemployment benefits.
Benefit amounts will be calculated based on previous income, using a formula from the
Disaster Unemployment Assistance program, according to a congressional aide.
Self-employed workers will also be eligible for the additional $600 weekly benefit
provided by the federal government.
What if I'm a part-time worker who lost my job because of a coronavirus reason, but my
state doesn't cover part-time workers? Am I still eligible?
Yes. Part-time workers are eligible for benefits, but the benefit amount and how long
benefits will last depend on your state. They are also eligible for the additional $600
weekly benefit."
So, Mr. Auerback, which is it? This will be a matter of life or death for millions of
people, including some in my own family, so please do clarify. Thank you!
It appears that it will take longer for the Treasury to cut us checks than it did to
invade Afghanistan. And the Taliban likely did not even have a TIN on file with the IRS.
You can see exactly what the system is optimized for.
Baltimore's mayor has called on the city's inhabitants to refrain
from killing one another for the time being, asking them not to "clog up" hospital beds as the
coronavirus pandemic spreads far and wide across the country.
"... DONALD TRUMP: Nobody knew there'd be a pandemic or an epidemic of this proportion. ..."
"... Trump is like the kid who played video games when he should have been doing his homework, then failed miserably on the test and tried to bullshit his way through the essay questions. ..."
"... As you are probably aware, a handful of elected leaders were selling their stock while assuaging the public about the dangers of the pandemic. We've gone from incompetence, to negligence, to outright profiteering. ..."
Last year, the Dept. of Health and Human Services ran a 7 month long exercise code named "Crimson Contagion," a dry run response
to a global pandemic which started in China and expected more than 100 million Americans to become ill.
Trump is like the kid who played video games when he should have been doing his homework, then failed miserably on the test
and tried to bullshit his way through the essay questions.
As you are probably aware, a handful of elected leaders were selling their stock while assuaging the public about the dangers
of the pandemic. We've gone from incompetence, to negligence, to outright profiteering.
dropping bombs and sanctioning free commerce in other countries is the American way of protecting the proceeds of the sociopaths
not such a good way to stop pandemics. Not in my name congress
@QMS
Fifty-six years dumping an untold number of dollars into "keeping us safe" from a foreign invader and the one time it happened,
not any of the resources were worth a damn.
The problem isn't so much that the real threats are unknown, at least not in broad outline form, but they're not "sexy." Not
amenable to what the military and cloak and dagger spy guys are into. And the perpetual USG budgets for the sexy stuff is far
more profitable. And is better suited to hiding all the graft and corruption (and employing the surplus and unskilled labor that
elite universities crank out) that upset ordinary people fearful that some undeserving person would get something for free from
the USG.
supplies, either. Well, given how the govt likely views our soldiers, I guess that's not surprising.
pandemic war games but no money to implement the most basic stockpiles (thermometers, face masks, gloves) that would be
very helpful in containing a virus. The larger serious shortcomings in the US are mostly intractable due to the "best" health
care system that money can buy.
"... Put together, they reveal how big a share of the American markets for drugs, medical devices, and protective gear is controlled by goods made overseas. The big takeaway is that the nation could be in big enough trouble if supply disruptions were to occur in normal times (say, due to natural disasters in manufacturing centers abroad). During a high-mortality pandemic like the CCP Virus, these levels of foreign dependency are high enough to guarantee significant numbers of needless deaths. ..."
"... And in fact, the import penetration trends for these products exemplify the nation's health care security weaknesses. In 2002 -- a good baseline, since that's the first year China was a member of the World Trade Organization -- imports overall accounted for 16.7 percent of all surgical appliances and supplies used in the United States (measured by value, not numbers of masks or pairs of gloves). During the first full year of the Great Recession, 2008, this share totaled 28.08 percent. ..."
"... Keeping this qualification in mind, overall, 32.41 percent of surgical appliances and supplies were imported from other countries by 2011, according to these figures. In 2016, that number reached 41.81 percent of a $33.71 billion U.S. market. It may well be higher these days, as between then and last year, U.S. overseas purchases jumped by more than 29 percent. (Interestingly, in light of domestic shortages, U.S. exports in appliances and supplies actually rose by more than 13 percent during this period!) ..."
"... Ventilators, sadly, have been in the news, too; they and related products like oxygen tents and bronchoscopes and inhalators and suction equipment are found in a big goods category called surgical and medical instruments. In 2002, imports from all corners of the world represented 22.04 percent of American consumption. By 2016, this figure stood at 35.91 percent of a $37.5 billion national market, and over the next three years, imports grew nearly 31 percent. (Exports expanded at a relatively slow 11.84 percent.) ..."
"... exclusive U.S. reliance on China for the chemical ingredients of numerous medicines has now become a major federal government concern. ..."
"... The main foreign suppliers to the American pharmaceuticals market as of last year look encouragingly diversified and encouragingly friendly. For example, Ireland was number one, with 22.15 percent of such shipments, followed by Switzerland with 14.05 percent. But third and fourth, with 8.87 percent and 8.39 percent of imports, were Germany and India, respectively, both of which have limited or embargoed their medical exports this year. And number five, at 7.38 percent, was Italy -- whose current CCP Virus devastation could easily bring about export restrictions. ..."
"... Last year, America's leading foreign supplier of surgical and medical instruments (the ventilators category) was Mexico, which sold U.S. customers 28.58 percent of the $17.62 billion of total imports. But export-curber Germany was number three, at 9.43 percent, and China was sixth, at 6.93 percent. ..."
"... Purely domestic policy steps, like mandating more stockpiling or new recycling and re-use strategies, undoubtedly can add to national medical products supplies. But even these general import penetration figures, along with the shortage reports that keep pouring in, make clear that enduring national health care security can't be restored without a major ramping up of domestic output. And since export-heavy economies like China's and Germany's will undoubtedly work overtime to keep their American health care customers -- including with all manner of predatory economic practices -- it's similarly clear that big, lasting U.S. departures from standard free trade policies will be unavoidable. ..."
Not Just China: U.S. Reliance on Foreign Medical Supplies is Staggering
The government's own numbers tell a frightening tale of how this happened, and when.
Virus pandemic having exposed scary domestic shortages of critical medical
goods ranging from safety masks to ventilators, along with potential shortages of
pharmaceuticals, political leaders across the spectrum are finally regretting having allowed so
much output of these products to migrate offshore.
China's role in global supply chains has understandably sparked much of the alarm, since its
government has all but threatened to withhold supplies of medicines whenever it wishes. But all
told, at least 38 countries (including the 27-member European Union) have curbed exports of
anti-pandemic products at some point since the CCP Virus began dominating headlines.
So
potential foreign chokeholds in the nation's health care-related supply chains appear global in
scope. The federal government's best data make clear just how widespread the problem has
become, and how steadily it's been growing.
The figures come from the government's statistics on industry-by-industry manufacturing
output and on exports and imports. (The output data can be accessed through databases created
by the Census Bureau for its Annual Survey of Manufactures that are located at this link . The
trade numbers can be retrieved at an interactive database maintained by the U.S. International
Trade Commission that's located at this link .)
Put together, they reveal how big a share of the American markets for drugs, medical
devices, and protective gear is controlled by goods made overseas. The big takeaway is that the
nation could be in big enough trouble if supply disruptions were to occur in normal times (say,
due to natural disasters in manufacturing centers abroad). During a high-mortality pandemic
like the CCP Virus, these levels of foreign dependency are high enough to guarantee significant
numbers of needless deaths.
These statistics aren't problem-free. Principally, because the manufacturing output figures
are so granular, and therefore take so long to compile, import penetration rates for these (and
other manufactures) can be calculated only through 2016. Yet the more timely import numbers can
provide a reasonable indication of whether vulnerabilities are worsening or shrinking. At the
same time, the government's main trade data aren't nearly as detailed as the production
numbers. As a result, it's not possible to know the percentage of, say, safety masks used in
the United States that are produced abroad. But it's easy to come up with this number for the
category in which masks (and other protective gear) are grouped -- surgical appliances and
supplies.
And in fact, the import penetration trends for these products exemplify the nation's health
care security weaknesses. In 2002 -- a good baseline, since that's the first year China was a
member of the World Trade Organization -- imports overall accounted for 16.7 percent of all
surgical appliances and supplies used in the United States (measured by value, not numbers of
masks or pairs of gloves). During the first full year of the Great Recession, 2008, this share
totaled 28.08 percent.
Notably, these imports from China were a tiny 1.5 percent in 2002, and had actually dropped
to 0.49 percent by 2008. By 2016, they accounted for a seemingly modest 6.54 percent of
American consumption. But here's where another weakness in the data emerges: they say nothing
about the origin of the materials, parts, and components of the final goods.
Keeping this qualification in mind, overall, 32.41 percent of surgical appliances and
supplies were imported from other countries by 2011, according to these figures. In 2016, that
number reached 41.81 percent of a $33.71 billion U.S. market. It may well be higher these days,
as between then and last year, U.S. overseas purchases jumped by more than 29 percent.
(Interestingly, in light of domestic shortages, U.S. exports in appliances and supplies
actually rose by more than 13 percent during this period!)
Ventilators, sadly, have been in the news, too; they and related products like oxygen tents
and bronchoscopes and inhalators and suction equipment are found in a big goods category called
surgical and medical instruments. In 2002, imports from all corners of the world represented
22.04 percent of American consumption. By 2016, this figure stood at 35.91 percent of a $37.5
billion national market, and over the next three years, imports grew nearly 31 percent.
(Exports expanded at a relatively slow 11.84 percent.)
Again, the China figures are small beans -- the import penetration rate for 2016 was a mere
2.35 percent. But these products often contain lots of electronics parts, and half the world's
printed circuit boards, for example, are made in the People's Republic. In other words, lots of
existing global surge capacity throughout the sector is ultimately controlled by Beijing.
Thanks to the work of researchers like the Hastings Center's Rosemary Gibson and independent
journalist Katherine Eban, heavy and sometimes exclusive U.S. reliance on China for the
chemical ingredients of numerous medicines has now become a major federal government concern.
Indeed, the Food and Drug Administration is keeping an especially close eye on the availability
of no fewer than 20 pharmaceutical products that use Chinese raw materials. (Unfortunately, the
FDA won't say what they are, which calls for some Freedom of Information Act requests,
pronto.)
But the import penetration figures make clear that supply disruptions could also originate
elsewhere. Between 2002 and 2016, drugs produced overseas more than doubled their share of
America's consumption (which stood at nearly $200 billion three years ago), from 17.23 percent
to 38.51 percent. As of 2019, moreover, U.S. drugs imports were 20.34 percent higher than in
2016.
The main foreign suppliers to the American pharmaceuticals market as of last year look
encouragingly diversified and encouragingly friendly. For example, Ireland was number one, with
22.15 percent of such shipments, followed by Switzerland with 14.05 percent. But third and
fourth, with 8.87 percent and 8.39 percent of imports, were Germany and India, respectively,
both of which have limited or embargoed their medical exports this year. And number five, at
7.38 percent, was Italy -- whose current CCP Virus devastation could easily bring about export
restrictions.
Nor is this pattern restricted to pharmaceuticals. Last year, America's leading foreign
supplier of surgical and medical instruments (the ventilators category) was Mexico, which sold
U.S. customers 28.58 percent of the $17.62 billion of total imports. But export-curber Germany
was number three, at 9.43 percent, and China was sixth, at 6.93 percent.
For surgical appliances and supplies (the masks and protective gear category), Ireland
topped the 2019 foreign supplier list, selling the United States 24.09 percent of its $18.21
billion of total imports. But China was second, at 15.29 percent, and in third place, at 9.68
percent, stood Malaysia, which banned mask exports on March 20.
Purely domestic policy steps, like mandating more stockpiling or new recycling and re-use
strategies, undoubtedly can add to national medical products supplies. But even these general
import penetration figures, along with the shortage reports that keep pouring in, make clear
that enduring national health care security can't be restored without a major ramping up of
domestic output. And since export-heavy economies like China's and Germany's will undoubtedly
work overtime to keep their American health care customers -- including with all manner of
predatory economic practices -- it's similarly clear that big, lasting U.S. departures from
standard free trade policies will be unavoidable.
Alan Tonelson is the founder of RealityChek, a public policy blog focusing on economics
and national security, and the author of The Race to the Bottom .
Taiwan was screaming out to WHO in early Jan that China had a new emerging epidemic to no
avail.
Posted by: KiwiKris | Mar 26 2020 3:46 utc | 63
_______________________________________________
You've been soaking up the US disinformation campaign against China. This is timetable for
January:
China reported there was a novel virus to the WHO on Jan. 3 -- is that early enough in
January for you?
China shared the full genome sequence to the WHO and the intl community on Jan 7th.
China invited the WHO to send an investigative team to Wuhan on the 10th. The WHO
investigative team had free access to talk to anyone and go anywhere.
That's what transparency looks like.
I await the day when the US govt invites the WHO to investigate and evaluate its virus
response. It's very transparent that would never happen, but do let me indulge this fantasy
of mine.
International and interregional cooperation and information sharing:
From 3 January 2020, information on COVID-19 cases has been reported to WHO daily. Full
genome sequences of the new virus were shared with WHO and the international community
immediately after the pathogen was identified on 7 January. On 10 January, an expert group
involving Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwanese technical experts and a World Health Organization
team was invited to visit Wuhan. A set of nucleic acid primer sand probes for PCR detection
for COVID-19 was released on 21 January.
I'm 26. Coronavirus Sent Me to the Hospital.
I'm 26. I don't have any prior autoimmune or respiratory conditions. I work out six times a
week, and abstain from cigarettes. I thought my role in the current health crisis would be
as an ally to the elderly and compromised. Then, I was hospitalized for Covid-19.
That night I woke up in the middle of the night with chills, vomiting, and shortness of
breath. By Monday, I could barely speak more than a few words without feeling like I was
gasping for air. I couldn't walk to the bathroom without panting as if I'd run a mile. On
Monday evening, I tried to eat, but found I couldn't get enough oxygen while doing so. Any
task that was at all anxiety-producing -- even resetting my MyChart password to communicate
with my doctor -- left me desperate for oxygen.
While I was shocked at the development of my symptoms and my ultimate hospitalization,
the doctors and nurses were not at all surprised. After I was admitted, I was told that
there was a 30-year-old in the next room who was also otherwise healthy, but who had also
experienced serious trouble breathing. The hospital staff told me that more and more
patients my age were showing up at the E.R. I am thankful to my partner for calling the
hospital when my breathing worsened, and to the doctor who insisted we come in. As soon as
I received an oxygen tube, I began to feel slight relief. I was lucky to get to the
hospital early in the crisis, and receive very attentive care.
@NPleezeThe reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I
wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise,
and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.
Precisely. We have received several reports recently of young people being hospitalised
and some even dying. However, the reports do not specify the condition of those young people.
In places like the US, the youth are very unhealthy so it would not surprising to discover
the youth requiring hospitalisation are obese or drug takers.
Fiona Lowenstein is a writer, producer, and yoga teacher and the founder of the queer
feminist wellness collective, Body Politic.
From her selfie, she also appears to be an Orthodox Jew, though apparently one of those
classic New York breakaway (sorta) types.
Now, did anyone from the Times validate her story? Of course they didn't. They are
desperate for stories like this. My guess is the entire thing is made up. She looks perfectly
well in her few other hospital selfies on her Instagram. You think people like this wouldn't
rig those photos?
PS -- Her Instagram has a number of bikini shots. Guess what that means.
I'm 26. I don't have any prior autoimmune or respiratory conditions. I work out six
times a week, and abstain from cigarettes.
The highly specific listing of non-symptoms suggests that the patient did have other
co-morbidities, such as obesity, diabetes etc. Did he/she smoke weed? Smoke cigarettes in
the past ?
If he/she had been entirely healthy prior to the infection, he could simply have said
so.
@37
Yesterday I went to Home Depot to buy some water tubing for my ice-maker.
I noticed all doors were blocked with a tape, except one with at least 25 people waiting
to get in and a female employee holding a sign "the line starts here".
I ask the lady what was all about and she said because of the virus etc.
I said to her "You must be kidding" and I start going back to my car.
Some old lady from the line waiting to get in she scream to me something about "we protect
ourselves" and similar nonsense.
I turn around and I said to her: Quit watching TV you idiot. They rob your money on broad
daylight and send your kids to die fighting israels enemies.
The overreaction to the virus makes no sense. Is something being hidden from us? The freak
out over this virus – to the tune of $trillions – is all out of proportion.
2.8 million Americans die every year. Why the obsession with this one virus which may kill
in the thousands?
Something is off. But Trump should have known early if there was some other hidden danger.
If there is some hidden suspicion by the people obsessing over this, please share it!
when one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge
for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective
safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by
gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond
academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing.
The obvious policy left now is a lockdown, with overactive testing and contact tracing:
follow the evidence from China and South Korea rather than thousands of error-prone
computer codes. So we have wasted weeks, and ones that matter with a multiplicative
threat.
Some here have said that the economic cost of a lockdown or other measures that severely
impact the economy exceeds the value of the lives saved. But what is that economic cost, in
reality? People putting off buying a house or a car by six months or a year, resulting in an
unrecoverable loss of GDP? But so what? What important difference does that make?
Americans have been conditioned to never go to the hospital. Even being hospitalized can
destroy one's finances, let alone for an extended period and actually receiving
treatment.
Lack of testing and diagnostics means that it is impossible for people to know their own
condition and the severity of it. We have multiple reports of people just dropping dead in
the US.
Finally, we are just slightly behind on the timeline. NYC will be in Italy/Spain's
position very shortly, followed by states like Texas which are doing even less to contain it.
Expect it to be worse here when it is all said and done.
" If indeed they did" . . . is a very crucial phrase. With these digifraudulent
Democratic Primary/Caucus elections, we will never know.
As for those who really did vote for Biden, decades of 24/7 psyops and infops against a
mainstream population without the knowledge or energy to extract information from beyond the
Media Plantation will create that kind of voting pattern.
You need to get a lawyer, anyone on Medicare so admitted would be covered, they'd be some
co-pays, per the Centers for Medicaid & Medicare. If the hospital accepts Medicare you
were covered and should (sadly less) owe less than 1k. No way a hospital lets you in for that
procedure without knowing it's getting paid. By law all they have to do is stabilize your
vitals and throw you out the back door. Very sorry and upset to hear of this.
That is truly sociopathic. What a bunch of murderous, hypcritical fake-Catholic assholes
are in charge of the government of Poland. They run the usual campaign to shut down abortion,
but they're happy to make their fellow Catholics in Italy more likely to die.
Of course, America has been paying suck-ups like Poland and the Baltic States handsomely
to be the front line states (aka, targets) against Russia. Who's worse the criminal, or the
money man who bankrolls his crime?
@LondonBob Italy shows a lag
behind Iran of around 5-7 days. "Peak" is a flat top (around 15 days) rather than a real
peak. Please, see China and Iran lines.
One thing I think played a role that is not mentioned is Trumps business that he owns. He
owns hotels and casinos which will be devastated. Trump wont rule out government assistance
for himself.
For Trump to shut down the economy and produce an effective containment, he would have had
to do this knowing that his own business would be devastated.
Fortunately, it appears that China (and Russia) are going to bail Serbia out with test
kits.
Honestly thank God for you both.
Despite their rather different geopolitical viewpoints, European attitudes to both
Serbia and the Ukraine are quite similar. They are to be exploited to the extent they are
useful; otherwise discarded as needed. It's a lesson they should mull over.
I agree completely, the Serbia-Ukraine parallel is a fairly accurate one, in that Serbs
and Ukrainians alike are absolutely screwed if they don't cleave to Russia.
Can't be all that extensive -- I have two friends in UK south of London with coronavirus
(he's a doctor, should be able to tell the difference between this and "mere" flu) and after
5 days they still can't get themselves tested. Hence they don't even appear in the figures
for UK coronavirus cases.
@Anatoly
Karlin I would pay top dollar to meet this "Serbian nationalist" in person.
The main focus of our encounter would be his CV, the CV of his parents and grandparents,
their voting preferences 1992-2012 and their whereabouts in 1991-2000.
You know, Res non verba? The principle sensible people use to gauge politicians and
governments?
I already have a very nice theory.
Generally, abysmal failures in private lives should be ignored and barred from presenting
their "opinions", on anything.
I would advise you to distance yourself from underachieving simpletons whose perception of
(geo)politics and diplomacy is commically naive and smolbrain, and who unironically believe
that anonymously chestbeating, spouting urapatriotic idiocies detached from reality and
insisting on maximalist terms while holding 0 advantages is a measure of nationalist
sentiment.
The sheer audacity of these idiots presenting Putin, Lavrov, Russian intelligence as naive
fools being played by "Western agent" Vucic and Dacic; and themselves as better Russians than
actual Russians when it comes to deciding on the Russian national interests and alliances.
Putin and Lavrov have by far the best relation with Vucic among all Serb politicians in the
last decades. They said so.
Serbia is in a precarious position in every single aspect, no amount of bluffing would
fool neither Americans nor Germans, the actual masters and controllers of all important
affairs and institutions since 2000.
Instead of replying in detail to each of his "points", I would like him to present a
better alternative for Serbia at the moment. Explicite leader and party, concrete policies
and measures.
PS: Testing asymptomatic and mild cases serves no meaningful purpose per se. Isolation and
separation measures do the actual work, and the hospitalization capacity is limited.
Ergo, focusing on actual preventive measures (curfew, social distancing, quarantine for
arrivals ) and treatment of cases warranting hospitalization is the best Serbia can do at the
moment.
My acquintances are Professors and Doctors combatting the outbreak; he probably picked his
"opinions" from online comments, mass media, Balkan Info and his drinking buddies.
broke the constitution on several occasions in the past two weeks. First by essentially
disbanding the Parliament with an executive act (the one forbidding the gatherings of 100+
people)
This decision will save lives and the current constitution is not some sacred thing, it
was signed in 2006 by worthless traitors
Military got involved with no apparent reason, except to make our wannabe dictator look
even more silly and grotesque.
No apparent reason? I guess risks of a mass pandemic and possible consequences of that
(general public disorder) are no reason?
Also, an interesting fact: Vucic NEVER seems to brag when a new country "unrecognizes"
Kosovo.
Again, looking at what someone says instead of what they do, it's such a brainlet take at
politics
Vučić's minions and media outlets already do all the necessary bragging, no need
for him to sour his image among the European and American liberals by rooting "Neo-Fascist
Serbian Politics" or whatever newspeak nonsense they use
And when nationalists talked about the imminent betrayal (it started as soon as he was
elected) they weren't talking about the Serbian institutions, they were claiming we were
about to recognize Kosovo "next month" and it was "next month" for about 5 years before they
dropped that line
Serbian institutions have practically ceased to exist in the north of the province
during this time
No, they De Jure ceased to exist under the Brussels agreement, which was in motion way
before Aleks came to power
De Facto they stopped existing in 1999 when the JNA withdrew after months of Jihadi attacks
and NATO bombardment
The thing that goes unnoticed among all these pathetic appeals for "centuries old"
friendship between Serbia and China, is the total absence of Russian support in Serbian
MSM
This is a blatant lie
However the focus is mainly on China so everyone else gets drowned out by the noise,
the media does talk about Russia sending help to Serbia and how well Russia is handling the
crisis
It should be noted that liberal outlets like Danas are pushing the "Russia is hiding the
epidemic" hoax
The "Centuries old" friendship is eyebrow raising but Serbia was never really an enemy of
China afaik, and both SFRY and PRC split from the Soviet sphere so they had good diplomatic
relations
And call them pathetic all you want, Chinese doctors, equipment and cash donations are coming
and all it took was some sweettalk, sweettalk which just happened to dismiss the EU and the
West in General, which is certainly a propaganda win for the Russo-Chinese bloc
Vučić is probably the best Russia can get out of a Serbia which is surrounded by
US puppets, more favorable alternative (that have a chance of winning an election) do not
exist and this is what you sometimes hear from some Russian Serbia-analysts
More than 250,000 people are hospitalized for pneumonia annually in the US. The mortality
rate for pneumonia in the US population (all ages) is 15.1 deaths per 100,000.
An estimated 50,000 Americans die of pneumonia annually (137/DAY). 7500 Americans per day die
of all causes.
In Lombardy, the precrisis total ICU capacity was approximately 720 beds (2.9% of total
hospital beds at a total of 74 hospitals); these ICUs usually have 85% to 90% occupancy
during the winter months. The number of intensive care units has dropped by half over the
last 20 years, dropping from the highest to the lowest number of beds per capita in Europe to
around 230 per 100,000 inhabitants (23 , 000 beds in lombardi -700 icu beds) with population
of 10 million
The US has 15% ICU based on total hospital beds and runs at 60-77% capacity depending on
hospital size (higher in winter months)
The United States has 25 ICU beds per 100 000 people (75,000), as compared with 5
-7 per 100 000 in the United Kingdom and Italy
U.S. ventilator capacity exceeds its number of ICU beds, according to data from the
Society of Critical Care Medicine
Tests being used to detect COVID 19 are self validated by the manufacturer. FDA states
they have not review the validation data. There is no reported specificity. A chinese study
showed expanded testing of those with mild symptoms or asymptomatic were false positives.
More testing yields more cases and deaths. Even with influenza only 1% of those who get it
are laboratory tested.
Populations unable to think can not maintain a Democracy and Freedom, and will be doomed
to serfdom. Lock Step will pave the way for the transition.
"... This is specifically about coronavirus testing. In fact, CDC very much screwed up -- its test had a contaminated assay, the negative control, which made it unusable. ..."
By CNN's count, at least 13 states and 13 municipalities in the US have ordered 144,522,931
people to stay home as a result of the pandemic, according to data compiled by CNN using US
Census population estimates.
Update (1324ET): President Trump on Tuesday once again tried to
deny that his administration dropped the ball on the coronavirus response, while saying he
would like to see the country re-open by Easter.
Of course, the CDC's botched handling of the tests has been well-documented, and the fact
that nobody in the administration acting to overule the CDC and start stockpiling tests from
elsewhere might be remembered as one of the administration's biggest screwups in handling the
crisis.
Trump: "We did not screw up."
This is specifically about coronavirus testing. In fact, CDC very much screwed up --
its test had a contaminated assay, the negative control, which made it unusable.
World Health Organization offered us test it had been using in China.
US President Donald Trump has finally given a date for when he would like America to at
least partially reopen after the Covid-19 shutdown: April 12. Otherwise, he argued, the
depression would cause far more deaths than the virus. "I would love to have the country
opened up and just raring to go by Easter," Trump said on Tuesday during a Fox News virtual
town hall.
We have to get our country back to work. Our country wants to go back to work.
This follows his remarks on Monday night at the White House press briefing, when he would
not name a date, but said he was debating loosening the restrictions in the coming weeks in
order to prevent a complete economic collapse of the US.
Anxiety and depression from the economic crisis would cause deaths "in far
greater numbers than we're talking about with regard to the virus," Trump argued.
The US is currently on Day 8 of the government's "15 days to stop the spread "
program, with tens of millions of Americans either working from home or furloughed – some
without pay – to encourage " social distancing."
A $2 trillion financial relief package was proposed by the Senate with the intention of
sending cash payments to Americans to make up for income lost due to the shutdown. It was
blocked by Senate Democrats on Sunday and again on Monday, however, as the House Democrats
sought to push their own proposal, which included a laundry list of policy priorities unrelated
to the pandemic.
"- USA classified all discussion related to preparation for the virus;
"- suppression of testing;
"- failure to prepare despite urgent warnings;
"- blaming China for US/West lack of preparation (they have sufficient info);
"- failure to acknowledge and implement treatment;
"- rush of aid to Wall Street and corporations while slow-walking money to ordinary people
(will we ever see that money?).!!"
Jackrabbit@15
It is not clear what you are trying to communicate. But I assume that you are arguing that
"the Crisis is fake."
The 'reasons' that you give are not reasons at all- far from proving that the crisis is fake
they are simply features of the crisis itself.
Far from being fake the crisis is as plain as day. While there may be debate over whether
or not the disease is exaggerated, even falsified and nothing more than another seasonal
virus, the crisis, internationally and locally is obviously real.
And the proof of this is that millions of people are not working or working from home, the
streets are empty in the cities, the healthcare systems are dangerously overstrained, there
is an obvious need to devise food distribution networks and to substitute alternatives for
reliance on the marketplace to make decisions and the invisible hand to govern. And thousands
are dying-which is very real.
All these things are real. Much more real than your irresponsible claim (@33) that
'inexpensive Chloroquine' will treat the problem. You don't know that, just as I don't know
that it won't-though the weight of opinion is against what you advise which might well, in
the unlikely event that anyone takes you seriously, prove to be fatal.
Why is it that I feel like all leaders at Municipal, State, Provincial, Regional, and Federal
levels in whatever country should watch Governor Andrew Cuomo's daily briefings? Why
do I feel it's required viewing for the length of the pandemic? Why is it I feel like all
leaders should cover the pandemic as thoroughly and efficiently as he's covering it? And I'm
not even a big fan of the Cuomos! Only the truth matters to me, not personalities. If he's
doing it right; I don't care who it is!
You probably missed that ALL NYS residents (over 19 million people) have been ordered to
stay home. An unnecessary measure when the virus can be treated effectively.
And if you're sick, you're told to stay home until/unless it worsens, which allows the
virus to progress to the point where treatment with inexpensive Chloroquine is less
effective.
I would point out that China is doing both lockdowns and extreme tracking.
South Korea is doing extreme tracking/testing with no lockdowns.
The US is doing lockdowns with no tracking and "voluntary" testing - it seems most of
the West is also doing lockdowns but without the China/South Korea extreme tracking.
Russia has been very aggressive from the start with extreme tracking but hasn't had any
lockdowns yet.
The economic consequences of lockdowns in the US - I've noted before - are going to be
extreme in the US because of its high cost of living and highly complex, interdependent
economic value chains.
Secondly, China has both high savings rates (albeit skewed by income inequality) as well
as much lower cost of living. Some interesting details TAMU study - including that
Chinese households had more assets in total than US households... in 2010!
Countries can't simply lock down their societies to defeat coronavirus, the World Health
Organization's top emergency expert said on Sunday, adding that public health measures are
needed to avoid a resurgence of the virus later on.
"What we really need to focus on is finding those who are sick, those who have the virus,
and isolate them, find their contacts and isolate them," Mike Ryan said in an interview on the
BBC's Andrew Marr Show.
"The danger right now with the lockdowns ... if we don't put in place the strong public
health measures now, when those movement restrictions and lockdowns are lifted, the danger is
the disease will jump back up."
Much of Europe and the United States have followed China and other Asian countries and
introduced drastic restrictions to fight the new coronavirus, with most workers told to work
from home and schools, bars, pubs and restaurants being closed.
In one extreme, we have Spain and France. This is the timeline of measures for Spain:
On Thursday, 3/12, the President dismissed suggestions that the Spanish authorities had been
underestimating the health threat.
On Friday, they declared the State of Emergency.
On Saturday, measures were taken:
People can't leave home except for key reasons: groceries, work, pharmacy, hospital, bank
or insurance company (extreme justification)
Specific ban on taking kids out for a walk or seeing friends or family (except to take
care of people who need help, but with hygiene and physical distance measures)
All bars and restaurants closed. Only take-home acceptable.
All entertainment closed: sports, movies, museums, municipal celebrations
Weddings can't have guests. Funerals can't have more than a handful of people.
Mass transit remains open
On Monday, land borders were shut.
Some people see this as a great list of measures. Others put their hands up in the air and
cry of despair. This difference is what this article will try to reconcile.
France's timeline of measures is similar, except they took more time to apply them, and they
are more aggressive now. For example, rent, taxes and utilities are suspended for small
businesses.
Those disbursements to wage earners are vital for the social cohesion to remain in place.
I thought Tulsi Gabbard championing that minimum basic income strategy was essential as
well.
I empathies totally with USians that are trapped in the vulgar exploitative nightmare
of the usury in that country . Debt Jubilee for all under $100,000 income would be a
start. But that might create a vulgar backlash as well.
The naked ferocity of capitalism in the USA is truly a fearsome thing.
"... By mid-February, it was clear that certain drugs and anti-virals were effective. It was important to have widespread tests so that these drugs could be administered early, especially to vulnerable populations. Yet weeks later, the West (especially USA) was still unprepared to test. ..."
The real danger was always in the possibility that the healthcare system is overwhelmed.
Then you get large numbers of unnecessary deaths.
So a country needs to flatten the curve. The best way to do that is to close the
schools as soon as community spread is detected. In the West, this should've been done in
early February - it wasn't.
By mid-February, it was clear that certain drugs and anti-virals were effective. It
was important to have widespread tests so that these drugs could be administered early,
especially to vulnerable populations. Yet weeks later, the West (especially USA) was still
unprepared to test.
There didn't need to be a crisis or a panic. But a CRISIS! is something that is
politically useful: to direct hate against China; to provide extraordinary support to
favored interests like Banks and Wall Street and Boeing.
In addition, it seems that USA/Trump was hoping that remdesivir, developed by Gilead
Sciences, would be the (expensive) drug of choice to treat Covid-19.
There is a saying the you fight the war with the army you have, not with the army you want.
Notable quotes:
"... Ok. Let me start by stating that I am not a "staunch" Trump supporter. However, I just really despise the constant visceral negative, hatred towards our Country's President. ..."
"... As I am sure you are aware, it is a tremendously difficult job, especially in today's crisis. I would think it would be better serve of your time and efforts to be constructive and optimistic, and hopeful. Rather than pinpointed every single steps and missteps he makes. He is certainly no perfect - but his goal is the same as all of ours: to defeat this virus in the best manner possible with the resources available. ..."
"... For the entire Trump Presidency it was all about the stock market. So, here we are. ..."
20 hours ago Here is a 1 minute 22 second video timeline of Trump's amazing handling of the coronavirus.
Please play this.
It will take less than two minutes of your time.
One missing key quote is a statement Trump made bragging about having natural talent coupled with a proclamation that he could
have been a scientist instead of president.
More Questions:
And where are the tests? The ventilators?
Who at the CDC or in the administration insisted the US needs to develop its own test instead of using an accurate test the rest
of the world was already using?
What about Trump increasing sanction pressure on Iran in the midst of the biggest global humanitarian crisis since world war II?
And what about Trump's rating his administration's handling of this as "excellent".
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
njbr 20 hrs
The dumb-asses in DC still don't get it. "Top" leaders crowding around a single microphone in a stage no larger than a public
restroom. Working toward a 1 time $1200 check that probably wont be issued/delivered for another couple weeks. What about the weeks
after that--are they going to spend the next couple weeks going around about the next check?? Has the production of ventilators actually
been accelerated-who could tell from what has been said? Why are nurses and doctors in my area asking the public for donations of
PPE at the very beginning of the serious phase? What happens when the doctors and nurses start tipping over? Two partially ready
hospital ships may help in one spot each on the coast, but what about everywhere else? Has anyone even checked on the production
capacity for the maybe helpful malaria medicine--has anyone been directed to begin proactive super-production of this product? On
and on.
DeeDee3
20 hrs
hard to prove deliberate neglect when you eliminate all of the evidence. No testing means "no virus" and sadly supported the hoax
theory.
Another doc died in the city today. ER's are unprotected. what conclusion can we draw from all of this?
Zardoz
20 hrs
Thousands will die because of his incompetence... and his followers will blame the Chinese
egilkinc
20 hrs
There should be a tracker of the number of cases [among medical personnle] in the US along with this
Sechel
20 hrs
Oh my g-d. This is excellent! I think Trump has learned some bad lessons from Goebbels. Repeat the lie and repeat it often and
people will take your version of events. This really serves to correct the record! Good work!
PecuniaNonOlet
20 hrs
And yet there will be an avalanche of Trump supporters defending the idiot. It is truly beyond me.
michiganmoon
20 hrs
Actually, Trump should resign and give the GOP a chance this November.
Had Trump not downplayed this and had tests ready, he could have played on a loop Biden on January 31st saying travel restrictions
from Wuhan were racist and xenophobic.
thesaint0013
20 hrs
Ok. Let me start by stating that I am not a "staunch" Trump supporter. However, I just really despise the constant visceral negative,
hatred towards our Country's President.
As I am sure you are aware, it is a tremendously difficult job, especially in today's crisis.
I would think it would be better serve of your time and efforts to be constructive and optimistic, and hopeful. Rather than pinpointed
every single steps and missteps he makes. He is certainly no perfect - but his goal is the same as all of ours: to defeat this virus
in the best manner possible with the resources available.
To criticize previous tweets, interviews, and depict his flaws and errors
does not help the common goal. The nature of some of the questions posed to him during the press conferences should be a bit more
respectful and again, it doesn't serve any positive outcome to try and "catch" him in a lie, and how he may have said something that
was not factual or false.
Again, he's not perfect and neither are anyone of us. However he is our President and we should support
his and all of our common goal to defeat this virus.
Russell
J 20 hrs
Not making excuses for Trump at all but he/we have people who are specialists and are responsible for being ready at all times
for something like this and are responsible for being on the look out for this. Somebody should have came forward, even as a whistleblower.
I've been aware for about 2 months now.
Thank you WWW.PEAKPROSPERITY.COM, MISH and WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM
This was an epic failure of Trump, his administration and America in general.
ghoffa
20 hrs
Hi, @MishTalk @Mish
I wanted to sincerely thank you MISH from my whole extended family. I have been reading you since 2007 when Ron Paul removed the
scales from my eyes on the Fed and govt., Jekyll Island book, the "financial markets" (all modern day money changers). Every picture
I see of Fed chairpersons, their eyes look dead black sharks eyes (to quote a famous book which I subscribe, the eyes are the windows
to the soul).
In addition our mob style duolopoly govt and for the most part complicit MSM (all with significant influencing billionaire ownership
to control the news - easily searched). I've learned so much from this blog and the many commentors in this space ( a personal fav
is @Stuki ) . Nothing short of brilliant and reminds me of my fav news source Zerohedge and it's articles and commentors.
A special thanks for pointing us to Chris Martenson (peakprosperity.com) as my wife and I have watched every day his free daily
videos since JAN @24th and our extended family is as prepared as we can be. God help us all with what's coming.
For those who haven't watched it, Dr. Martenson has a great 3 min video on exponential growth on YTube. Search his name and exponential.
It will help you prepare for what our govt knows is coming in enourmous exponential growth in fatalities. Even knowing, it will be
an emotional thing to prepare for. Prepping home supplies is one thing, prepping emotionally is also important per Dr. Martenson.
HCWs be damned.
As this impacts people personally, I expect insider leaks to come from many fronts. We're working with neighbors to get prepared
as we're all on our own now as the money changers (evil) bail out the money changers (evil) amidst a system that is so debt leveraged
it can't likely be bailed out. "everything's a nail and the Fed has a hammer".
Lastly this brings a famous quote to mind as the people rise up against corrupt govt, corp bailouts after stock buy backs, etc.
Let alone the monsters upon monsters creating lab viruses (regardless of the source of this virus), and unregulated GMOs changing
the fabric of life.....
"All it takes for evil to prevail is for good people to do nothing". Margaret Mead
G
QE2Infinity
20 hrs
Come on! First off, anyone can be made to look bad by taking snippets out of context and stringing them together. That said, Trump
does tend towards braggadocio. If that is off putting to you, he can be annoying. I much prefer a transparent fool to the more sly
variety that plays the part well while sticking a knife in your back.
But let's be honest here. The president can do very little. The bureaucracy of the government is a jobs program for the less ambitious
and politically inclined. It's staffed with incompetent bureaucrats that show up, surf the web and may get around to an hour or two
of honest work. Public unions guarantee they can't be fired.
Obama converted the CDC into a PC jobs program for lefties, just like he converted NASA into a Muslim outreach program.
May one ask: why is a self proclaimed libertarian screaming for more government action? Wouldn't it be great if one of the outcomes
of this crisis is that local communities became more self reliant and more self sufficient!
Sechel
20 hrs
that's from a website called therecount.com looks interesting.
Greggg
20 hrs
For the entire Trump Presidency it was all about the stock market. So, here we are.
The graphic at the end of the video already looks out of date and shows how rapid the spread has been. For March 2020 it shows
5,002 cases in the US (and counting) but right now I'm seeing 24,137 cases.
So much for "in a couple of days the 15 is going to be down close to zero".
njbr
20 hrs
What can the President do?
Force and organize the production of necessary goods.
Act as impartial hub for the distribution of new and stocked items.
Force/fund the emergency super-production of even possibly helpful items such as the malarial drug.
Turn every possible research dollar onto the research into the disease, it's treatments and vaccines.
Fund and distribute tests. Make a way to track the progress of the disease, as opposed to waiting for regional medical systems
collapse under load.
Activate whatever resources are possible to pre-position and set-up field hospitals now.
Develop uniform best-practices for quarantine and treatment.
Prepare the population for the realistic probability of multiple months of the crisis.
Mish Editor
19 hrs
May one ask: why is a self proclaimed libertarian screaming for more government action? Wouldn't it be great if one of the outcomes
of this crisis is that local communities became more self reliant and more self sufficient!
I said what I would do
I would remove tariffs. I would not have had them in the first place.
I would expect our president to act to increase supplies not insist on Made in America.
I would expect our president to behave like an emphatic human being, not a total moron
Mish
Editor
19 hrs
Trump did not Drain the Swamp. He IS the swamp
Mish Editor
19 hrs
Anyone who still supports this President's actions is a TDS-inflicted fool.
Jim
Bob 19 hrs
I've followed Mish for ~ 12 years online and on the radio for brilliant economic analysis. Lately his work has been undermined
by irrational political opinion. Mish has turned into Krugman. I won't be back.
abend237-04
19 hrs
The Donald is obviously afflicted with the same narcissistic megalomania prerequisite for a successful run at any elective office
above County Coroner, anywhere in this country.
That said, he can apparently read a graph, and he's right: The two drug combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin are working
to treat this damn thing, BUT:
It is, indeed, not a Covid-19 preventative.
If you get it, and you dink around at home too long waiting for improvement, arriving at ICU needing ventilation leaves you with
roughly the odds of Russian roulette of surviving, especially if you're older.
Lacking testing, the only remaining means available to knock the transmission rate down quickly is social distancing/lockdown. But,
enough of that prevention can leave us wishing we were dead anyway.
Unfortunately, all the college kids jamming the bars and beaches is setting the stage for continued exponential growth by hordes
of asymptomatic spreaders.
The march of folly continues.
I like what I'm seeing of Cuomo. He'd be a good guy to have in the room in a serious fight; This qualifies.
DBG8489
19 hrs
As someone who hates all politicians, there is zero love lost between Trump and myself. I had hopes when he was elected that he
would make a difference but it was clear based on how he looked after his private meeting with Obama on inauguration day that he
was in over his head.
Having said that, I will say this:
From at least the "major" state level up, it would appear that not one single elected official or the top advisors and bureaucrats
who work for them have shown anything but complete and utter failure in their handling of this emergency.
You have senators selling off piles of stock while either saying nothing or telling the rest of us that it was bullshit. And trust
me - they were not the only ones. If anyone cares to investigate, they will likely find this problem rampant. Elected officials should
not even be allowed to trade stocks when they control the entire economy - not even through alleged "blind trusts" - it's bullshit.
But that's a conversation for another time.
You have congressional reps and senators blaming each other and/or the other party and passing laws and bailouts without even
reading the bills they are passing.
You have the Treasury and the Fed printing money and throwing it at every hole that opens up without the slightest regard for
what the unintended consequences of those actions may entail.
You have governments of the "major" states (CA, NY, NJ...etc) who know they can't simply print money being exposed using any extra
money they had (along with taxes based on tourism that have now disappeared) to fund God knows what now demanding that everyone else
pony up to pay for their failure to plan...
The lack of leadership in the major states and at the Federal level is abysmal ACROSS THE BOARD.
And that includes members of BOTH parties and nearly every single bureaucratic agency involved.
You can single Trump out if you want, but he's not alone. He's just an easy target because 49% of the population hated him before
this started.
njbr
18 hrs
....Top health officials first learned of the virus's spread in China on January 3, US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex
Azar said Friday. Throughout January and February, intelligence officials' warnings became more and more urgent, according to the
Post -- and by early February, much of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA's intelligence reports were
dedicated to warnings about Covid-19.
All the while, Trump downplayed the virus publicly, telling the public the coronavirus "is very well under control in our country,"
and suggesting warm weather would neutralize the threat the virus poses....
...The administration did begin taking some limited action about a month after Azar says the administration first began receiving
warnings, blocking non-citizens who had been to China in the last two weeks from entering the country on February 3 -- a move public
experts have argued at best bought the US time to ramp up its testing capabilities, which it did not use, and at worst had no beneficial
effects at all.
Trump finally assembled a task force to address the virus, putting Vice President Mike Pence in charge of the effort on February
26, and declared a national emergency on March 13. And, just this week -- nearly three months after first receiving warnings from
his intelligence officials -- the president's public tone about the crisis shifted: "I've always known this is a real -- this is
a pandemic," he said Tuesday as he admitted, "[the virus is] not under control for any place in the world."....
Realist
18 hrs
I have been watching political leaders in my own country get on television daily. They have all done a great job of informing
the public about the dangers of this virus. They have all relied on the experts to relay information to the public about what the
government is doing, and what individuals should be doing. This is true at the national, regional, and local levels.
In addition businesses have been sending out emails, radio announcements and tv messages explaining what they are doing in regard
to this pandemic.
In fact, I am amazed at what a good job everyone is doing.
I am also watching what is happening in the US. Every US state governor and city mayor I have seen on tv has done a wonderful
job of presenting the facts to the public and provided instructions as to what they are doing and what the public should be doing.
Then there is the gong show that is Trump. I could not imagine that anyone could be as bad as he is; months of lies, denials,
suppression of the truth, and a complete and utter lack of preparation for something he was warned about many times. Denying one
day that the virus was a pandemic; only to claim the very next day that he had known it was a pandemic for months; and then the very
next day say that no one could have seen this coming; and finally saying that his response to the virus rates a 10 out of 10.
Worst President ever. Sadly, many, many Americans are going to suffer and die because America had this moron in charge.
Mish keeps referring to worldometer to get stats from. Their numbers seem to match up with numbers I see in my own country and
in the US.
Disturbingly, today, the mortality rate for closed cases ticked up 1% to 12%. 12978 deaths and 94674 recovered. That is not the
direction I expected it to go.
daveyp
17 hrs
You get what you vote for. To have such a malignant narcissist of such profoundly limited intellectual honesty and capacity "leading"
your nation through this is truly tragic for your country. Even the hideously vile ultimate Washington insider Hilary would have
done a better job.
truthseeker
17 hrs
Mish I agree with much of the criticism of Trump, yet had he done everything you and others suggest, there is this implied assumption
that everything would have worked out perfectly. You know I am impressed the way the country seems to be uniting to such a great
degree, that I think there is at least some hope for our country's future though there are huge challenges that lay ahead absolutely!
abend237-04
17 hrs
I will now proceed, once again, to bitch about the root cause of our current pandemic, which is causing many to experience cosmic
scale frustration with The Donald, which I share:
Civilization has now been hit squarely in the head with three killer coronavirus outbreaks in 18 years, yet still has no unified
global new viral antigen detection system. We could have if our world "leaders" would make it happen.
Local supercomputers, however massive, will never crack this nut, but the billions of powerful, web-accessible smartphones could
if linked and used by a parallelized, intelligent scheduler to raise the alarm when a new antibody/pathogen is discovered in human
blood anywhere.
Such a system could have lifted the burden from a lonely doctor struggling to raise the alarm in Wuhan, before Covid-19 killed
him, and placed it squarely in front of disease control experts, worldwide. It can be done; We must do it.
Sars cov-3/4/5/6/7/8/9/n could kill us all if we don't.
"... 1) Pompeo and Grenell reportedly arguing that coronavirus has created window of opportunity for a direct strike on a weak and divided Iran. ..."
"... Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisian has criticized the #UK for not delivering millions of masks #Iran bought in preparations ahead of #Covid19 outbreak. The London govt. refused to deliver them citing US sanctions! Note that Germany took supplies meant for Switzerland, The US via the Italian Mafia (I suppose) gets masks from Bergamo. etc. ..."
I just think that the US "Intelligence" and most of the US Administration just haven't got it. I suppose when you are waiting
for the "rapture" anything that can add to the chaos is to be included.
1) Pompeo and Grenell reportedly arguing that coronavirus has created window of opportunity for a direct strike on a weak
and divided Iran. They were arguing about the severity of the strike.
2) Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisian has criticized the #UK for not delivering millions of masks #Iran bought in preparations
ahead of #Covid19 outbreak. The London govt. refused to deliver them citing US sanctions! Note that Germany took supplies
meant for Switzerland, The US via the Italian Mafia (I suppose) gets masks from Bergamo. etc. Wonderful show of
world-wide solidarity.
Pompeo should hold his "rapture" in his hot little hand and .....
But she sees this China-bashing as mostly a political reaction:
In reality these people are rallying behind the campaign to blame China for the health
crisis they're now facing because they understand that otherwise the blame will land
squarely on the shoulders of their president, who's running for re-election this year.
instead of a deliberate Deep-State strategy (which is my view).
We can argue who created the virus (I'm still looking for any rebuttal to the Chinese
claim that USA must be the source because it has all five strains of the virus), but the
Empire's gaming of the virus outbreak seems very clear to me.
U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and
February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while President Trump and
lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take action that might have slowed the
spread of the pathogen, according to U.S. officials familiar with spy agency reporting.
The intelligence reports didn't predict when the virus might land on U.S. shores or
recommend particular steps that public health officials should take, issues outside the
purview of the intelligence agencies. But they did track the spread of the virus in China,
and later in other countries, and warned that Chinese officials appeared to be minimizing
the severity of the outbreak.
If the spy services were really concerned about the issue why did they not warn the
public? Instead of leaking new idiotic fairytales they could have leaked a warning about the
pandemic. Instead we were given this:
If the intelligence services had taken the pandemic seriously they could have warned the
public via their countless stenographers in the media. Instead they kept the media filled
with false anti-Russian stories and told Trump that the Chinese are lying which they were in
fact not.
Trump of course would have not have believed the intelligence reports anyway. Why would
he? The FBI and CIA have for three years tried to get him impeached. They created Russiagate
based on a fake dossier. They lied to get FISA warrants to spy on his campaign. When
Russiagate finally fell apart the CIA sent a fake 'whistleblower' to launch Ukrainegate. In
Trump's place there is no reason to believe a word of whatever any of the 'intelligence
officials' say.
The intelligence services failed to issue effective warnings. But they were not the only
ones. All institution in 'western' countries and their leaders have lacked in their
preparation for a larger outbreak.
China warned us early on. The WHO was informed in late December. On January 3 the director
of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was informed by his Chinese
colleagues. After China recognized that the new SARS-CoV-2 virus indeed jumped from person to
person it took radical measures to get a grip on the epidemic and those measures have worked
well. China has only 3,255 death in a nation of 1.4 billion people. Today all checkpoints
were removed from Wuhan city and life there is slowly turning back to normal.
Since when did the CIA, the NSA, the DIA and the rest of the much vaunted 17 alphabet-named
intel agencies in the US ever provide much in the way of "intelligence"?
The CIA famously failed to foresee the revolution that felled Iranian shah Mohammed Reza
Pahlavi and the role Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini played in it, in 1979. The CIA also failed
to foresee the downfall of Communist govts in eastern Europe and the Soviet Union in 1989
and 1991. Instead the CIA spends US taxpayer millions on brainwashing and torture programs
like MK ULTRA and their like in universities and institutions in the US and Canada (McGill
University) from the 1950s onwards.
The current activities of the CIA and FBI in promoting anti-Russia / anti-China
propaganda and propaganda aimed at destabilising these and other nations that don't bow to
the US are equivalent to a global witch-hunt hysteria. The CIA's patron saint should be
17th-century English self-proclaimed Witchfinder General Matthee Hopkins. Senator Eugene
McCarthy probably wouldn't come close to this fanatic.
I thought it was well known that U.S. intelligence services don't exist to warn the public
about possible dangers from abroad. They exist to create dangers abroad and at home.
"The U.S. intelligence services fear to come under questioning for not raising enough
warning about the novel coronavirus pandemic."
Fear being questioned? U.S. intelligence agencies don't fear being questioned--I thought
this was well-known too. It's going to be harder and harder to write articles from the
perspective of being in favor of the U.S. regime using martial law on us without completely
forgetting what the U.S. regime stands for in the first place.
The Corbett Report released a video today about martial law. In it, he shows us a German
document from 2013, entitled:
"Information from the German government – Report on risk analysis in civil protection
2012"
"In it, frightening similarities with what is currently happening can be seen – in
particular by explicitly mentioning the "SARS coronavirus (CoV)". The scenario presented,
in which the spread, course, duration, mortality etc. are described, goes as far as to make
a drastic restriction of fundamental rights necessary.
The scenario states in this respect:"
"The competent authorities, first of all the public health authorities and primarily the
public health officers, must take measures to prevent communicable diseases. The IfSG
[Infektionsschutzgesetz] allows, among other things, restrictions of basic rights, such as
the right to inviolability of the home. Within the framework of necessary protective
measures, the fundamental right of personal freedom and the freedom of assembly can also be
restricted. In addition to these measures to be ordered directly by the public health
officer, the Federal Ministry of Health can order by statutory order that threatened
sections of the population have to take part in protective vaccinations or other measures
of specific prophylaxis, whereby the right to physical integrity can be restricted".
https://www.globalresearch.ca/coronavirus-new-world-order-something-rotten-state-denmark/5706464
Knowing that b is German, I thought this could be of interest to him;)
"The U.S. intelligence services fear to come under questioning for not raising
enough warning about the novel coronavirus pandemic.
IMO, this is a misreading.
I think a better interpretation is that US media is providing cover for Deep State
officials (including high-level intelligence officials) that gamed the virus response. In
that regard, this is the key phrase:
The intelligence reports didn't predict when the virus might land on U.S. shores or
recommend particular steps that public health officials should take ...
= The intelligence services failed to issue effective warnings."
But we know that they were providing very effective warnings: Senator Richard Burr, who is
Chair of Intel Cmte, WAS getting appropriately dire warnings and acting upon those warnings:
trading stock and telling his closest friends and supporters about the looming pandemic and
the terrible effects it would have.
= "But they were not the only ones. All institution in 'western' countries and their
leaders have lacked in their preparation for a larger outbreak."
Well, we shouldn't over look the fact that the top US health officials are all currently
or formerly military officers:
Head of CDC - Colonel, US Army 1977–1996;
Undersecretary for Health - Admiral, Public Health Service Commissioned Corps;
Surgeon General - Vice Admiral, Public Health Service Commissioned Corps.
I expect that top health officials in other Western countries are also be connected to the
military. These officials "failed us" in the same way that our media "fails
us": they serve the interests of the EMPIRE-FIRST Deep State.
I would say that Germany's testing is far superior
@Marie
to the US. They test a far larger number of people and don't have the restriction of having to
show symptoms before one can get tested. This gives them a larger base of infected so it shows
a lower ratio for deaths/confirmed. Earlier detection will also greatly improve outcomes. The
slope of their new infections is also starting to flatten - unlike the US where it is getting
steeper with each passing day.
These factors are actually a really, really bad warning sign for the evolution of the virus
outbreak within the US. The US, as a fist world country should not have outcomes like a second
world country.
#7.1
COVID-19 infections, but an incredibly low number of deaths and patients in serious
condition. The numbers may be valid but if so, there's an element of luck in Germany's
favor.
@CB
The only country I've seen that has been releasing daily figures on testing is South Korea
and they've been doing it since their first case on 20 Jan 2020. Update 21
Jan 2021 . First confirmed case in Germany was on 28 Jan.
As of 21 Mar:
Germany: confirmed cases 21,854. (population 83 million)
South Korea: confirmed cases 8,799. (population 51 million) Total tests administered
327,599.
So, SK has better contained the internal spread than Germany and has released more
complete information on the imported cases.
At this time, I'm not going to speculate as to why SK's deaths are so much higher than
Germany's. But do note that if Germany's health care for a virus with no cure is so far
superior to SK's, why are there also so few recoveries in Germany - 180 compared to SK's
2,612.
#7.1.2
to the US. They test a far larger number of people and don't have the restriction of
having to show symptoms before one can get tested. This gives them a larger base of
infected so it shows a lower ratio for deaths/confirmed. Earlier detection will also
greatly improve outcomes. The slope of their new infections is also starting to flatten -
unlike the US where it is getting steeper with each passing day.
These factors are actually a really, really bad warning sign for the evolution of the
virus outbreak within the US. The US, as a fist world country should not have outcomes
like a second world country.
"US has 55 million masks" "we should sanitize and reuse them"
China makes N35 masks at the rate of tens of millions per day. They are shipping millions
to other countries around the world. Sinopec even constructed a brand new factory with 12
production lines from scratch in 10 days to manufacture the PP material over a month ago.
Trump bragging about how prescient he was in handling this pandemic.
Lying about China not telling world what was happening for two to three months
despite WHO reports from early January.
He keeps repeating how he acted very early.
Scapegoating China again. What a fucking lying fuckwit.
Still don't know how many or when test kits will come out.
Blaming all problems on previous administration - inherited the deficiencies.
One reporter catches him out on when he knew about China from his public statement on Jan
24.
Watch the following video. Trump knew about the virus at least by Jan 3 (the day it's
genome was published)
out of the reagents to run the tests. So samples can be collected, but may not be
processed. There will be more cover-ups when this becomes generally known. Attention! Forward
fail!
Here's a video of how China ramped up mask production within days of learning about the
COVID-19 infection.
Someone should have the Trumpeter watch this video. He might discover why masks can't be
cleaned and reused.
who make profits as well. I cannot remember exactly when insider trading for
them became legal but it should be no surprise to anyone paying the slightest bit of attention
that they're ALL doing it. That is one reason, at least in my semi-educated opinion, they did
not go after Trump for emoluments during Shampeachment, because THEY ALL DO IT.
That goes all the way to the White House, no doubt.
...Across the United States, the number of reported cases of coronavirus at nursing homes,
assisted living centers and other elder care centers spiked in recent days, with at least 73
facilities in 22 states now reporting infections, according to a review by The Washington Post
of reports from states, local media reports and nursing home announcements.
As of Friday evening, at least 55 coronavirus deaths occurred among people living in
elder care facilities, though the number is probably higher because official counts often omit
a description of the person's last place of residence . That figure represented more than a
quarter of U.S. deaths then attributed to the pandemic, even though fewer than 1 percent of
Americans live in such facilities.
Police stopped and checked 700,000 citizens between 11 and 17 March, 43,000 of whom were
found to have violated the decree, which also ordered the closing of shops, bars,
restaurants, gyms and swimming pools.
One of the most serious cases happened in Sciacca, Sicily, when a man who had tested
positive for Covid-19 was discovered by police while out shopping, despite the strict order
to self-isolate at home. Prosecutors opened an investigation and accused the man of "aiding
the epidemic". If convicted, he could face up to 12 years in prison.
On 10 March a 30-year-old man was stopped by the police in Turin at 2.30am while
soliciting a sex worker.
Police near Venice pressed charges against a priest because he was officiating at a
funeral. Another priest was reported for the same reason in Torre Annunziata in Campania,
together with relatives of the deceased. Funeral services are banned under the decree.
The prosecutor's office in Aosta, in north-west Italy, opened an investigation against a
man for "aggravated attempt to spread the epidemic" because he had not informed his doctors
of suspected coronavirus symptoms before undergoing plastic surgery on his nose. The man
subsequently tested positive for Covid-19.
To put this in perspective: Italy has a population of 60M - so police stopped more than 1 in
100 people in the whole country!
This is not even at China level lockdown.
What will the US do?
Figures refer to specimens tested. Data is updated at noon Mondays through Fridays. The
current report, published on 16 March 2020, includes only consolidated estimates up until
11 March 2020.
In addition to the usual closures and orders to increase hospital capacity, he's also
prohibiting utility providers from turning off power, water, heat etc. for nonpayment.
Today I announced additional actions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Maryland. They
may sound extreme, and they will be terribly disruptive, but they are also absolutely
necessary to save the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. Details here: https://t.co/XwwTJot69H
I have ordered the closure of all bars and restaurants in the state, as well as fitness
centers, spas, and theaters, effective at 5:00 p.m. today. The order allows for restaurants
to continue carry-out, drive-thru, and delivery services.
We are marshaling every tool in the arsenal of public health to combat this crisis. I have
issued an omnibus public health order that includes increasing hospital capacity, activating
the Maryland Responds Medical Reserve Corps, & lifting restrictions on healthcare
practitioners.
I am prohibiting utility providers from shutting off any residential customer's service or
charging any residential late fees, and prohibiting Maryland courts from ordering the
eviction of any tenant who can show that their failure to pay rent was the result of
COVID-19.
We are marshaling every tool in the arsenal of public health to combat this crisis. I have
issued an omnibus public health order that includes increasing hospital capacity, activating
the Maryland Responds Medical Reserve Corps, & lifting restrictions on healthcare
practitioners.
Apparently, the reason Trump's comment about the ventilators and respirators
earlier - asking states to try and find their own through their own supply chains, as Trump
said during the press conference - touched such a nerve among the governors is because there's
some kind of nationwide "problem" with supplies, according to Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who
discussed the issue with the Washington
Post.
"There is a problem with supplies and ventilators," Hogan said. "There's not enough
supplies. The states don't have enough. The federal government doesn't have enough. They're not
getting distributed fast enough. And that's a problem for all of us.
Roche, the Swiss drug company that is one of several companies working with the
administration to increase the supply of tests, has started shipping tests to labs across the
US.
ROCHE STARTS SHIPMENTS OF COVID-19 TESTS TO LABS ACROSS U.S.
ROCHE BEGINS SHIPMENTS OF FIRST 400,000 COVID-19 TESTS TO LABS
ROCHE: PLANS TO SHIP AN ADDED 400,000 TESTS PER WEEK
ROCHE: SHIPPING OF INITIAL 400,000 TEST KITS BEGAN MARCH 13
BTW, I have not seen any comments here like this speculative admission that I am about to
make:
I suspect that I have in fact contracted the dreaded corona virus. It has been making the
rounds in my area. For the past week and a half I have been unusually fatigued and in the
last week I have felt strange sensations in my lungs, and even felt out of breath
occasionally. No fever, sore throat or coughs. Definitely something unusual in my lungs.
I am 50 years old, no medical issues and generally in good health. I would have applied
for a test, but around here they stopped testing anybody but the bad cases that get admitted
to the hospital.
Girlfriend has been coughing for two weeks and even had a bit of a fever at the onset.
If this is not simply an ordinary case of flu or cold, I wonder what the exposure route
would have been.
GF works with disabled people and did a shift with a group of children who were snotty and
coughing right before she got her symptoms.
A little over two weeks ago I attended a weekend sports event in Belgium with many people
from Brussels and Paris also in attendance, cities that were early hits in Europe.
A few days later, I picked up my parents in the airport in Amsterdam after their flight
back from Atlanta. The had been touring the US and had been on a cruise ship from San Diego
to Fort Lauderdale, via Panama and the Caribean.
What really struck me this afternoon, was the realization that a little while ago,
somewhere in January, a good friend of ours suddenly fell ill with a double pneumonia. She
recovered with antibiotics, but afterwards it turned out that she now has pulmonary fibrosis
as a result of that epsiode. This transpired while the corona virus was a thing far away over
the horizon. Now I wonder about it.
Anyway, no panic. Taking my vitamins and minerals and brewing soups with lots of ginger
and garlic.
Kind of worried about my stepdad who is coughing a lot. He says it's just a cold.
Hmmm...
Dude, I don't give a rat's ass about Donald Trump or any other American political
leader.
Democrat and Republican. They are all scum. All of them.
But the German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, foreign minister Heiko Maas, and the
German Health Ministry are treating this American takeover threat as real:
"At a news conference on Sunday, interior minister Horst Seehofer was asked to confirm
the attempts to court the German company. 'I can only say that I have heard several times
today from government officials today that this is the case, and we will be discussing it in
the crisis committee tomorrow,' he said."
U.S. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer will propose legislation totaling at least $750
billion to combat the coronavirus outbreak and help the economy, his office said in a statement
on Monday. He will present the package as early as Tuesday, the statement said.
The plan would be in addition to an $8.3 billion aid plan that Congress has already passed,
as well as a multi-billion-dollar package the House approved last week, the statement said.
Schumer's plan would include money to address hospital capacity issues, expand unemployment
insurance, increase Medicaid funding, and provide immediate payment forbearance on federal
loans, the statement said. Democrats are a minority in the U.S. Senate.
Shows that had China locked down Wuhan just one day earlier, there could have been 40%
fewer cases to treat or 32,000 cases. This is the reality of exponential spread.
It also arrives at a correlation of 800 current true infections for each death. So Italy
likely has over 1M true infections, as opposed to the 24,000 "confirmed "cases reported
today.
"... His administration, it was argued, or facets of it, including the president himself, had willfully ignored the worst, tail-end risks of the international proliferation of the Coronavirus disease, COVID-19 or Wuhan flu, as stated in more off-color corners, including the Republican leadership. ..."
"... America is a week away from following the example of Italy, now on national lockdown, it's argued. The subtext: a lapse into genuine Third Worldism can not be ruled out, a coming catharsis for years of national breakdown, as well as the outlaw nature of the Trump presidency. ..."
"... Added into the dissatisfaction, in some quarters, is the discordance, ongoing even five years into Trump's national, political career, between Trump on the stump and the more polished parlances of the presidency. ..."
"... For every American concerned that the United States' response is lethargic and embarrassing, and more so than it might have been a generation ago, there's a rival perspective skeptical of an elite class that brought the country the Y2K pandemonium and the Iraq war. ..."
"... Under Trump the CDC has cut its budget for pandemic preparedness by 80% (in 2018) and Bolton oversaw the termination of the heads of pandemic response. I think we can safely assume that these measures weakened the response to the threat (that and Trump's baffling nonchalance when he could have been preparing cannot logically have failed to cost lives as potential carriers went about their day-to-day lives. ..."
"... Finally, he's unable to twist, outrun or scapegoat his way out of reality. Reaping what he is (and sows)... should've tried something a little more diplomatic with China than a punitive trade war... ..."
"... Unfortunately the COVID-19 crisis is showing that Trump really has no real leadership abilities but is only a reactionary. ..."
"... He's not "facing his fiercest trial". He's running away from it. The first thing he did was pass the buck to Pence, who handed it off to a bunch of incompetent political appointees at CDC, who botched it because they were corrupt mediocrities, totally out of their depth, and trying to do whatever they thought would keep Trump happy and maybe enrich some of their own cronies. ..."
"... There will be endless pallets of cash, billions, even trillions. It will be floating all over the place, totally untraceable, like in Afghanistan or Iraq. By the time this virus is finished with us, not only will Wall Street and the New York banks be bailed out again, but screw-ups like Seema Verma and other hacks hired by Trump and Pence will be multimillionaires. You just watch. ..."
"... Aside from the facts that no President has ever been as filthy mouthed, crude and insulting, bum Trump iis actually one of the FI's- a term I think I made up, but whatever- Trump is one of the 'Functioning Insane.' I'm telling you all: this guy, along with Vice President Pence, Jared Kushner and Pompeo and Esper at 'defense,' should be removed because they are mentally socio-pathic. They don't value human life. They're gonna lead this nation to misery that would be truly tragic. Appoint a commission from the Congresses and remove these weirdos now! ..."
he United States government, America's economic infrastructure and the country's character
are being stress-tested. So is the American president.
Let's not be bashful: President Donald Trump addressed the nation Wednesday, a rare salvo
from the Resolute Desk, against a backdrop of belligerent criticism. His administration, it
was argued, or facets of it, including the president himself, had willfully ignored the worst,
tail-end risks of the international proliferation of the Coronavirus disease, COVID-19 or Wuhan
flu, as stated in more off-color corners, including the Republican leadership.
America is a week away from following the example of Italy, now on national lockdown,
it's argued. The subtext: a lapse into genuine Third Worldism can not be ruled out, a coming
catharsis for years of national breakdown, as well as the outlaw nature of the Trump
presidency.
If the president's goal was to put these anxious criticisms at abeyance, he failed Wednesday
night, perhaps through no fault of his own as fewer Americans actually watch these addresses
anymore, relying instead on a clique of viral tastemakers. But his address was marred by
factual slip-ups. Not all travel from Europe, namely by U.S. citizens, is suspended, for
instance, and the government is, apparently, only, at current, willing to pick up the tab for
Corona co-pays, not the entirety of the treatments. Trump also failed to bat down paranoid
speculation that he, himself, is sick.
Added into the dissatisfaction, in some quarters, is the discordance, ongoing even five
years into Trump's national, political career, between Trump on the stump and the more polished
parlances of the presidency.
Formal addresses aren't really his bag. Trump looks like he's in a straight jacket. Which is
quite the manacle for a politician for whom body language -- gesticulation -- is so
central.
He did better Thursday morning.
Even as the market weathered its worst morning since Black Monday, the ruinous '87 crash,
Trump swapped the last night's diminishing digs for a more flattering, extemporaneous
environment. Astride Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, goofily, amidst the crisis, still on hand
for St. Patrick's Day, Trump said, referring to the Europe ban: "It's also possible we could
end it early." Trump noted: "It was an important thing to do." He appeared irked, but, perhaps,
at ease.
And in an intentionally divisive remark, love it or hate it, Trump said: "Well, I think, the
Democrats won't be having rallies." He continued: "But nobody showed up to their rallies
anyways."
For now, America waits. The Corona crisis cuts, deep, both ways.
For every American concerned that the United States' response is lethargic and
embarrassing, and more so than it might have been a generation ago, there's a rival perspective
skeptical of an elite class that brought the country the Y2K pandemonium and the Iraq
war.
Most every observer concedes the tail-end risks, but such trenchant skepticism, some might
say nihilism, seems to define the spirit of this outsiders' administration.
Hard questions will be asked when the dust clears, hopefully, by summer.
Why were American supply chains so, completely vulnerable to the turmoil emanating from a
mafia state such as China? Why was John Bolton, as national security advisor, allowed to take
such a narrow view of
national security that he shuttered a special bureau dedicated to pandemics?
I think he'll go down as one of the worst and most hated presidents in history. Some of
those who will hate him most will be people who voted for him, people like me, people he
betrayed by working for Wall Street and foreign interests instead of putting America First.
Two weeks ago I heard someone float the idea that there are those hoping this is a pandemic
that wipes out millions just so we can finally nail Trump. I wouldn't doubt there are a few
radical crazies who would wish such a thing. Now, as I'm hearing more and more come out and
say this is proof Trump is wrong about everything, that this is sure to spiral us into
recession and that will end the Trump presidency for sure, I'm starting to think it's not
just a few crazies. When politics becomes the all defining everything, I suppose that's
what you get.
"When politics becomes the all defining everything, I suppose that's what you get."
This applies to people on both the left and right.
In my opinion, the long war against Christianity (not only on the left, but some
powerful forces on the right) and the decrease in believers has led to a lot of people
replacing the transcendent with politics. And, some in-betweeners who have blended
Christianity with politics into a blasphemous, toxic cocktail.
So if Hillary Clinton had been elected president, governed as badly as you feared, and then
made a colossal mistake that hurt millions of Americans, you wouldn't be relieved on some
level that at least the one silver lining was that she was going to get kicked out of
office? Being glad for the potential end of something that you see as truly disasterous and
bad for the entire country is just natural, regardless of the reasons.
It never dawned on me to. First, I would make sure the harm was a direct result, and not
just partisan punditry. Second, if she really did make such a mistake that led to the
suffering of millions, of course I would want her to pay. But please, think on this. Last
night we had to calm our ten year old down who was crying in bed. Why? Because this time,
he said, we might all die. This time?, I asked. Yes, because at his age, most of his aware
life he has heard 'Trump and Korea Nukes! We're going to die, everyone to a major target!
Trump, and Russia, he's destroying our nation's democracy! Trump and WWIII, he started
WWIII! We're going to Die! And on and on and on. Right now, teen suicide is at its all time
highest, and for the first time ever, suicide is one of the leading cause of death for
children my youngest's age. For the last going on four years, he and his age group have
been exposed to one catastrophic crisis that will surely kill us all after another. And
last night, it finally got to him.
I remember in school when Reagan was elected. Conventional wisdom was that he would
either destroy our economy, or his war mongering ways would provoke the USSR into a full
nuke war and the end of humanity. They even made a hyped TV movie about it.
That had quite
an impact on my generation. And that was then. I can't imagine what the thrice daily alarm
bells of hysterics and panic that have been used against Trump by his opposition (on both
sides of the aisle) have done to the young ones of our nation. But last night, I got a
pretty good idea. If this does finally work to defeat Trump, I hope the collateral damage
is worth it.
The pre-Gorbachev Soviet leadership certainly bought into the hysteria about Reagan. They
apparently thought he was crazy and would launch a first strike nuclear war.
We all did. That's what got me interested in politics. By the time 1984 and 85 rolled
around, it was obvious that Reagan wasn't 1) going to destroy America's economy and, more
importantly 2) wasn't going to nuke the world. How could so many intelligent people be so
wrong I wondered. That's when I began learning the art of political speech. My opponent
never disagrees with me on the best way to reduce crime. My opponent wants criminals to
escape and kill my family. Things haven't changed much in 30 years.
My husband and I raised a child who was too well aware of world events. I understand your
concern as a parent. There's not much you can do to prevent your child from reading and
hearing what is being said out there - on all sides.
We focused on a stable home life, focusing on school and work around the farm. His greatest
fear - this was before we could legally marry - was that something would happen and our
family would be torn apart. Lots of time spent reviewing contracts and protections with our
lawyer helped on the rational level, but emotionally - it hurt him, badly. Probably one
reason he is, today, a lawyer who works as a public defender.
However - to address your Hillary concerns: We have seen how other advanced countries
deal with health care. We have dispositive evidence that you conservatives did disband
exactly those teams and those offices of the government which were set up to provide rapid
responses to exactly this sort of health crises. We know you conservatives fought health
insurance and sick leave and every other means of breaking that awful exponential curve
from the day Trump took office. So, yes, we have direct cause and effect. Goodness, you
knew about this in December (the briefings given to the White House are now public record,
you can't pretend anymore they weren't) and you wasted all of December and all of January
and all of February.
How much more direct need it get?
You spent the eight years of the Obama presidency making the most outrageous claims about
FEMA death camps and a return to open racism I had thought we'd not see in the USA
again.
Of course commentators are going to speculate on the damage this failure to protect the
American people will do to the Trump re-election, and the sycophants in the Republican
Party. That does not mean anyone wants to see people die.
I, a yellow-dog, would gladly trade another four years of Trump for the lives of those
already lost to this virus and those yet to come. And I am as far to the Left as any
Democrat and have as much anger at the fundagelical Christians as any gay man of my age for
what they did to us during the Aids Holocaust. You're not going to find any large group of
people on the left wishing death and destruction on our fellow citizens just to get rid of
Trump.
Now, asking our fellows on the Left to please set aside purity testing for once and to get
out and vote. That's where you'll find our energies focused.
Who? Me? I never bought into those. And I condemned those who railed against Obama because
of racism. I also railed against those who exploited or encouraged racism and used racism
for political expediency. As for the virus, we'll have to see. Again and again, take
precautions, err on the side of too much caution. But as each and every medical expert
says, stop the panic. And that includes exploiting this, like racism of old, for political
gain.
I'm sure some do. Why not? We have no problem saying some want war in the Middle East just
for oil. Or that some want this or that policy that could hurt or kill minorities because
racism. I'm often taken by the ease with which we will ascribe the most horrible desires
and motives, and then turn on a dime and act shocked when the same principle is applied to
a different group of people. I don't believe the majority do. Though you can't help but
wonder when you hear people smack down any good or positive news and want to emphasize only
the worst case scenarios. Especially when, for the last three years, this is only the
latest case where, largely due to Trump, we're on the brink, we're going to die, and that's
that.
Before that, Obama was creating death panels and the government was creating concentration
camps and stockpiling bullets... this time, though, it's a bit different. There have been
major blunders by Trump but he's managed to push past them. The virus won't be browbeaten
and its cold science to look at the numbers seen elsewhere in the world and draw the
conclusion that this will be most severe, and that Trump's wilful unpreparedness will
contribute to it.
Under Trump the CDC has cut its budget for pandemic preparedness by 80% (in 2018) and
Bolton oversaw the termination of the heads of pandemic response. I think we can safely
assume that these measures weakened the response to the threat (that and Trump's baffling
nonchalance when he could have been preparing cannot logically have failed to cost lives as
potential carriers went about their day-to-day lives.
And I didn't care for such hysterics then, either. The only difference is that when such
over the top hysterics were aimed at Obama, much of the mass media swung in to defend Obama
and attack and marginalize those trying to whip people into frenzies. For the last three
years, however, it's been those same media outlets leading the panic and latest doomsday
sky is falling shout fests. If people are being to slow to take this seriously, it might
just be a little of the old Boy Who Cried Wolf.
OK, I read all that you have said. I lived through the end of WW11, the Korean war, the red
scare( drinking water being poisoned by flouride) hot cold war( getting under desks) the
polio epidemic( touch one's chin to your chest test) the measles, the Cuban crisis, the
Vietnam war, the 68 riots, the killing of students at Kent State, the drug epidemic of the
60's, all of the financial melt downs for the last 70 years, the gas shortages, aids, all
of the middle east wars, all of the stock market crashes, 9-11, the sex revolution, the
civil rights assassinations, segregation, terrorism both foreign and domestic, and too many
other threats to remember. Frankly there have been a few years patched together when life
was generally without one crisis or another. Mostly when I was younger but only because I
didn't understand much about the fact that life is just so messy. My family would be
considered lower middle class alway pinching pennies. I thought we were just like everyone
else though. I do recall being very afraid about epidemics, nuclear war, commies under
every rock and so on. Through all of these things we persisted not because we were
unusually strong but rather because that's just what you do. We had good leaders, not so
good leaders, government was good in most ways not so much in other ways. The American
dream was met by most of my generation , thus there are fewer mountains to climb. Now world
wide data tells us that those measures of progress have improved in ways unimaginable in my
youth of the 40's. Without a question Trump is the worst human being ever to be elected to
the Presidency. Sure there were other deeply compromised leaders, but their private lives
were not on display. This time it is different. The unprecedented lies, the unprecedented
malfeasance permitted to languish, the unprecedented unqualified Presidential appointments
and the like surely makes it seem that we are , this time going down the tubes. I do not
share that view. We will get by, your children should not be scarred for life, you and they
will soldier on, a vaccine will be formulated, the economy will regroup with sound
businesses surving, God fearing people will go to church, schools will continue to muddle
along with some new educational theory implemented. So buck up, remain vigilant, raise your
children to be strong, take it one day at a time. I could go on about the life of my 102
year old father who was born in 1918 during the Spanish flu outbreak that took his life
mother's life. Oh yes , WW11, the great depression of 1929, the dust bowl, and everything
since. He still sees the news. But he is now worried about one thing. Global climate change
brought on by the world's use of fossil fuel. I share the old man's concern. I have
recounted all these things to help put today's problems in perspective. But If we do not
address climate issues, then nothing else much matters to my great grandchildren, and your
grandchildren. As my dad told me yesterday, " good luck and God speed ".
Good for you; I think the response to Obama's 'death panels' etc was probably defensive
because it was clearly entirely based on fever-dreams. Whereas Trump is actually saying
these things. And while there have been some doomsday predictions, this one is the real
thing and the administration response has been not just unproductive (when it could have
been manufacturing ventilators) but counter-productive (rejecting WHO testing kits, making
clear that more tests meant more cases and more cases weren't welcome, telling the nation
Trump had a hunch things wouldn't be bad) and before that, cutting pandemic response
budgets by 80% and getting rid of the team responsible for pandemic response. The latter
two are typically Republican (removing redundancy from government is fairly central to the
platform) but a wrong belief being shared doesn't make it any less wrong.
You have FOX News. You have all the fundagelical churches.
Trump just award the Medal of Freedom to a man who is telling people the COVID 19 virus is
just another cold bug.
I'm just not seeing us liberals and progressives say that the want people to die to be rid
of Trump.
I do agree that we on the Left are deeply concerned about the things Trump has done (and
failed to do.) Global climate change is seen by us as an existential threat.
Of course not. But think of how we assume with ease that any and all criticism of Obama was
likely racism. Think of the speed with which we'll say any involvement in the Middle East
is only because of oil and greed. That's what's called having the institutions that make
the social narrative on your side. I have no doubt there were those who only cared about
oil or didn't like Obama because of racism. But it's absurd to think such foul motives
exist only one on political side. No doubt there are those hoping for a full blown
catastrophe, no matter the cost, in order to beat Obama, just as they hoped for (if not
encouraged) a collapse and ruin in our response to 9/11 in order to make Bush look bad.
Heck, they began yelling Recession for almost three years before it hit in 2008. I doubt
all of it was motivated by pure concern. I have no problem believing that any group has its
worst elements. But right now, my concern is those who are pushing this past the panic that
everyone is warning against, and it's not just liberal opponents of Trump.
I follow quite a few liberal and progressive sites (and TAC, because it's good to be
reminded that there are still some, if only few, sane conservatives left).
The only places I'm seeing such calls are re-posted comments from the far-right, hoping to
incite anger and revenge against us thar libruls.
Nobody on the Left wants a tanked economy, much less people dying just to end the worst
Republican presidency of the twenty-first century.
On a practical level, the only people now left clinging to Trump are the sort who not only
deny global climate change, but believe supply-side economics will solve everything and
COVID 19 causes nothing but a mild cold.
Everyone else is seriously thinking about what to do in November this year. When you've
lost even Dreher, you've lost it. Gay bashing and domination over women will just have to
take a back seat to rebuilding what will be left of our country.
Finally, he's unable to twist, outrun or scapegoat his way out of reality. Reaping what he
is (and sows)... should've tried something a little more diplomatic with China than a
punitive trade war...
Unfortunately the COVID-19 crisis is showing that Trump really has no real leadership
abilities but is only a reactionary. If he was a real leader instead of pretending that
banning Europeans was going to protect the US, which is highly doubtful, he had urged all
schools and universities to close immediately for the next 2-4 weeks as it is increasingly
recognized that healthy children and young adults can be infected with COVID-19 but not
show any symptoms and are therefore a major cause of the spread of COVID-19, in part
because of their personal hygiene practices being less fastidious than adults. Real leaders
make hard choices that are not always popular. Trump seems so lacking in leadership
abilities that he doesn't even seem to recognize the hard choices he has to make if he
really wants to protect Americans.
Y2K pandemonium? Whatever. Coders worked hard to iron out the date glitches before they
caused problems. Planes falling out of the sky was never a real possibility.
As for this...
Why were American supply chains so, completely vulnerable to the turmoil emanating from a
mafia state such as China? Why was John Bolton, as national security advisor, allowed to
take such a narrow view of national security that he shuttered a special bureau dedicated
to pandemics?
That's what happens when you mix corporate greed and Republican-controlled governments.
Both Bush and Trump hired Bolton.
Even if COVID-19 proves to be a "hoax" or just a damp squib, we have now seen with our own
eyes how Trump will react to a real crisis, not just in Puerto Rico but right here.
Suffice it to say, that this evidence does not give us any reason for confidence in our
intrepid leader.
He's not "facing his fiercest trial". He's running away from it. The first thing he did was
pass the buck to Pence, who handed it off to a bunch of incompetent political appointees at
CDC, who botched it because they were corrupt mediocrities, totally out of their depth, and
trying to do whatever they thought would keep Trump happy and maybe enrich some of their
own cronies.
"corrupt mediocrities, totally out of their depth, and trying to do
whatever they thought would keep Trump happy and maybe enrich some of
their own cronies."
Don't say that like it's past tense, "Mid Maryland". It's about to happen. There will be
endless pallets of cash, billions, even trillions. It will be floating all over the place,
totally untraceable, like in Afghanistan or Iraq. By the time this virus is finished with
us, not only will Wall Street and the New York banks be bailed out again, but screw-ups
like Seema Verma and other hacks hired by Trump and Pence will be multimillionaires. You
just watch.
Aside from the facts that no President has ever been as filthy mouthed, crude and
insulting, bum Trump iis actually one of the FI's- a term I think I made up, but whatever-
Trump is one of the 'Functioning Insane.'
I'm telling you all:
this guy, along with Vice President Pence, Jared Kushner and Pompeo and Esper at 'defense,'
should be removed because they are mentally socio-pathic.
They don't value human life.
They're gonna lead this nation to misery that would be truly tragic.
Appoint a commission from the Congresses and remove these weirdos now!
Then new people will be be at the next election for President.
And, I'll say: ever since I came to America when I was seven years old, I'm truly watching
a horror show between big mouth Trump's solving nothing anywhere, just actually...making
everything worse.
By the way, it doesn't bother anyone that Trump's daughter and Kushner, her husband are
deciding wars and so on for America? For America's troops and their families? That Pence is
a strange weirdo 'end of times' extremist religious nut?
I'm thinking now that every other American is an FI.
Trump already flunked "his fiercest trial". He wasted two months denying the reality and
gravity of the threat, and now it's spreading all over the country.
The "trial" is over. Trump is finished. Hopefully the cowardly Republican senators up for
election this year will be kicked out along with the man they voted to acquit. I say this
as someone who voted for Trump with misgivings but also a lot of hope, goodwill, and
prayers. Now I just pray that we will be spared any more consequences of electing him.
"... False and contradictory statements, wrong judgments, bad decisions, a tour-de-force of managerial incompetence ... Trump's virus response has helped to spread the disease. ..."
"... It was never "under control". It isn't under control because of Trump's stupidity and incompetence, and the stupidity and incompetence of the people he hires. ..."
"... Trump has blown many opportunities, but this time he may end up blowing up his chances for reelection, and a lot else, besides. ..."
"... As much as I loathe HRC, I think her administration would have handled this virus situation much better. Believe me, I hate to say it, but I think it's true. ..."
"... In grudging fairness to the casino swindler, this is what comes of a half-century right-wing campaign to gut public services of all kinds, and to paint scientists (as well as intellectuals generally) as an enemy. ..."
"... Now we find that American public health machinery -- perhaps **the** most fundamental function of governance -- can't even competently put together 19th-Century level quarantine measures. This is where 40 years of Reaganism was always going to end up. Same with Trump, who, far from being some kind of Russian puppet, has always been the perfect representative of what the Republican Party truly is . ..."
"... Budget cuts to the CDC budget only became an issue with the advent of the coronavirus. In November, the status of this virus may well determine the outcome of the elections. ..."
The president has repeatedly paired false promises of "control" with inadequate or wrongheaded measures that have contributed
to the worsening of the situation. Last week's announcement of a 30-day ban on travel from some parts of Europe not only caused a
panic among Americans because the president failed to describe the policy correctly, but it also set up a dangerous situation where
returning Americans would face a huge bottleneck at major airports where customs officials were completely unprepared for the influx
of travelers. The lack of resources and manpower combined with the lack of safety preparations meant that thousands upon thousands
of people, some of them infected with the virus, were crushed together for many hours. If the goal had been to enable the spread
of the virus to as many people as possible, one could hardly have designed it better.
Cheryl Benard
recounts her experience at Dulles International Airport as she returned from Europe:
I had thought I was lucky to get one of the last seats home. And I was confident, because Dulles had been identified by the
administration as one of the handful of U.S. airports equipped to test arriving passengers and admit or quarantine them accordingly,
that I would find a rigorous protocol in place upon arrival. Obviously, the administration would not take such a momentous step
without solid preparation.
I could not have been more wrong. Upon landing, I spent three hours in a jammed immigration hall trying to decide which analogy
fit better: the ignorant Middle Ages during the plague years or the most chaotic airport in the least developed country [bold
mine-DL].
The pictures you may have seen only begin to capture the chaos. There was no attempt to enable social distancing; we were packed
closely together. Two giant queues of people -- one for U.S. citizens and green-card holders and one for foreign nationals --
wound their way through the cavernous hall. I counted and came up with approximately 450 people in each section, for a total of
just under a thousand. Many were coughing, sneezing and looking unwell.
When I inched closer to the front, I could see that a scant six immigration desks were in service. Two additional desks to
the left had less traffic. These are ordinarily for people in wheelchairs; now, the wheelchairs were mixed in with the rest. When
I asked a security guard about the other lines, he told me they were for people with a confirmed corona diagnosis. There was no
separation for this group -- no plastic sheets, not even a bit of distance. When your line snaked to the left, you were inches
away from the infected [bold mine-DL].
The mess at Dulles was replicated at O'Hare, DFW, JFK, and elsewhere. There were no preparations made because this administration
never prepares for anything and doesn't think more than one move ahead. Jeremy Konyndyk was understandably appalled by the latest
in a series of debacles:
This is disastrous. Sign of hastily made, poorly planned, terribly executed policy.
https://t.co/IoQ0auLrms
-- Jeremy FLATTEN THE CURVE Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk)
March 15, 2020
Other airports too. Good God. You could hardly invent a better scenario for superspreading events.
Any cases of COVID in these crowds will have a far higher chance of spreading to others in these lines than if they were just
allowed in unchecked. https://t.co/VONae40vHU
-- Jeremy FLATTEN THE CURVE Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk)
March 15, 2020
Meanwhile, one of the things that the government might be doing to get the situation more under control is one of the things that
they keep failing to do:
The US population is estimated at 333 million.
As of Friday afternoon, the @TheAtlantic
could verify only 16,471 people have been tested.
When asked about the testing failure last week, the president infamously
said , "I don't take responsibility
at all." When pressed on the 2018 decision to eliminate the global health security team from the National Security Council that Trump
approved on Bolton's recommendation, the president professed ignorance about it and said that "someone else" had done it. As always,
Trump's own actions are someone else's fault, and he accepts no responsibility for anything while seeking to take all the credit
for other people's work. The president will keep lying to the public that everything is under control while doing as little as possible
to bring the outbreak under control.
In the midst of this ongoing failure, the Surgeon General berated the media for covering the administration's major failures:
The surgeon general just said from WH briefing podium, "no more finger-pointing or criticism" and called for "less stories
looking at what happened in the past.
Criticism and calling attention to mistakes made by the government are the things that are supposed to make our political system
better able to adapt and learn from failure. Understanding how and why government officials made critical errors is essential to
limiting the damage from those errors and, if possible, rectifying them. Telling journalists that they should write fewer stories
about how things got to this point is to tell them that they should give up any pretense of being reporters and just resign themselves
to stenography. If not for the finger-pointing and criticism directed against the administration's slow and inadequate response,
it is likely that things would already be even worse than they are. Were it not for the very public embarrassment that extensive
media overage of the government's mistakes has caused the president and his allies, the administration would have felt no pressure
to change. As it is, the administration is still not moving quickly enough, but if they weren't being pushed by intense public scrutiny
they would be even more behind than they are.
False and contradictory statements, wrong judgments, bad decisions, a tour-de-force of managerial incompetence ... Trump's virus
response has helped to spread the disease.
It was never "under control". It isn't under control because of Trump's stupidity and
incompetence, and the stupidity and incompetence of the people he hires.
It is truly rich that Trump had a golden opportunity to look decisive and presidential, to lead a frightened public to safety,
and in an election year, no less.
A golden opportunity, and Trump blew it.
Trump has blown many opportunities, but this time he may end up blowing up his chances for reelection, and a lot else, besides.
As much as I loathe HRC, I think her administration would have handled this virus situation much better. Believe me, I hate
to say it, but I think it's true.
I must agree. Hillary would not have done much of what I, a liberal Democrat, wanted to see done. Her administration, however,
would have been filled with intelligent, competent people and the plans already in place (thank you, President Obama!) would have
been put into practice in December, when our monitors in China reported what was happening without the spin.
In grudging fairness to the casino swindler, this is what comes of a half-century right-wing campaign to gut public services of
all kinds, and to paint scientists (as well as intellectuals generally) as an enemy.
America has had a hand in.many genuine triumphs of public health over the last century. Yellow fever. Hookworm eradication.
Polio. Lots more. Things you'd think Americans might be proud of. But right-wingers and chest-thumping "patriot" types never seem
to give a damn about those *cultural* achievements. Not "moral" or "patriotic" enough. Doesn't get the blood pumping, apparently.
Now we find that American public health machinery -- perhaps **the** most fundamental function of governance -- can't even
competently put together 19th-Century level quarantine measures. This is where 40 years of Reaganism was always going to end up.
Same with Trump, who, far from being some kind of Russian puppet, has always been the perfect representative of what the Republican
Party truly is .
(More precisely, the right-wing coalition it represents. The Republican Party per se seems to be a kind of administrative husk.)
In grudging fairness to the casino swindler, we should remember that a lot of the readers of this web site voted for Trump in
2016 because he promised to nominate conservative candidates to Federal courts and because he was opposed to abortion. These same
voters helped give Republicans a majority in both the House and Senate for the following two years. Budget cuts to the CDC budget
only became an issue with the advent of the coronavirus. In November, the status of this virus may well determine the outcome
of the elections.
a lot of the readers of this web site voted for Trump in 2016 because he promised to nominate conservative candidates to Federal
courts and because he was opposed to abortion.
Yes. And those Federalist Society-spawned judges will be a valuable asset to corporate boards all around the world,
for years to come! Congrats to those readers, on their big score! But I hope they're not dumb enough to believe that they
are getting a cut of the asset stripping....
Budget cuts to the CDC budget only became an issue with the advent of the coronavirus.
Right. Similarly, the cuts to the fire department budget only became an issue during, you know, fires , when it turned
out that the hoses were full of leaks. An awkward discovery at an awkward time, no?
There is great danger in making a pact with the Devil - and that is precisely what conservative Christians did by putting Trump
in office.
The danger lies not in Satan breaching the terms of the agreement. Just the opposite. The conservative Christians got what they
wanted - judges who will do their damnedest to turn this country into a conservative Christian theocracy. Satan delivered to the
letter.
Unfortunately for the conservative Christians, the mechanism of delivery turned out to be Trump. The price for those judges
is the debasement of the Christian faith for generations to come.
Well played, Satan. Well fooled, conservative Christians.
Pacta sunt servanda...and the bill has just come do. Oh, and I wouldn't count on those judges for too long, either. You have managed
the unthinkable - uniting the Democratic Party.
Agreed, but let's not forget how deeply the Democratic Party bought into the neo-liberal, Reaganite consensus, including privatization
and contracting out hollowing out public agencies and ceding competence and self-policing to the private sector
True, but really theirs are mostly sins of omission and timidity. They're lousy defenders and advocates for public interests,
but they generally don't go wrecking working, useful institutions on ignorant whims.
Classy Trump and the US, trying to buy a German company working on Coronavirus vaccine, but to make it available only for the
US. The German government was not amused:
I love how these gangsters are making my country loathed throughout the world. Gratuitously. I've yet to hear the Trump
cult explain how it can possibly be to **our** advantage, in any situation, to be liked less and disliked more. It's a stunted
eight-year old's concept of "respect". The millisecond high of showing them pesky furriners tends to have lingering, unpleasant,
expensive aftereffects.
"'The American regime has committed an extremely unfriendly act,' said Social Democrat MP Karl Lauterbach, who said that German
health workers on the front lines — as well as people around the world — needed to have access to something developed in Germany,
and that no country should be able to purchase exclusive access to the vaccine."
Until 2001, Lauterbach was a member of Germany's Christian Democratic Union. When's the last time you saw a mainstream European
politician refer to the American government as a "regime?"
"... "I think Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing," Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on NBC's "Meet the Press." ..."
"... people in areas with "obvious community spread" need to be extremely cautious. All people everywhere still need to be practicing social distancing, including young people who think they're not a high risk for severe infection. ..."
"... "I'm not saying the rest of the country is okay...but if you are in an area where there is clear community spread you want' to be very, very, very cautious." ..."
"... Pressed about the response on "Face the Nation", Dr. Fauci said the "peak" of the outbreak in the US will hopefully be lower than the numbers seen in Italy. "I want to be overreacting," Dr. Fauci said. He added that the US is practicing travel bans and containment and mitigation in the country, and while "it is correct that case numbers will go up" he hopes that the US will never get to that "really bad peak". ..."
"... "If you're elderly...you shouldn't put yourself in a place where you're around crowded people." ..."
"... It may come to the situation that we "strongly recommend...myself personally I wouldn't go to a restaurant because I have an important job to do" Dr. Fauci said. But he didn't say whether all Americans should avoid going out, or if he would support blanket closures. ..."
"... we have a strategic national stockpile of ventilators and things like that. ..."
"... As far as how long it will take for the US to "rev up" testing, he said his understanding of where we are with the "companies who are getting involved" is that we will have "enough" tests in a few days, and that the number will only continue to go up. ..."
Dr. Anthony Fauci has just performed a legendary feet for politicos and public servants in
Washington: On Sunday, he appeared on all five of the major national "Sunday Shows" of the main
news networks: ABC's "This Week", CNN's "State of the Union", CBS's "Face the Nation", NBC's
"Meet the Press" and Fox News's "Fox News Sunday", cementing his role as the face of the
federal response to the coronavirus outbreak that has emptied out super markets and stoked
panic across the US, where nearly 60 have already died.
Overall, his tone was optimistic, but cautious. During his appearance on CNN, Fauci
acknowledged that "it's possible" that "millions could die" from the virus if the US didn't act
quickly to combat the outbreak. During his interview on "Meet the Press," Dr. Fauci said he
would "open" to a 14-day shutdown of schools and businesses in the US. He also said that
Americans should be prepared to "hunker down" for a while.
"I think Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down
significantly more than we as a country are doing," Anthony Fauci, director of the National
Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
He told Chuck Todd that all Americans need to be cautious, but people in areas with "obvious
community spread" need to be extremely cautious. All people everywhere still need to be
practicing social distancing, including young people who think they're not a high risk for
severe infection.
"I'm not saying the rest of the country is okay...but if you are in an area where there is
clear community spread you want' to be very, very, very cautious."
Though he said we shouldn't close every school in the country right now, he said local
officials need to remain "ahead of the curve", and even said he would be in favor of some kind
of national shut down, if not for 14 days, but for as "long as we could."
"I would prefer as much as we possibly we could. I think we should be very aggressive and
make a point of overreacting."
On "Fox News Sunday", Dr. Fauci was asked whether he would support a domestic travel ban. He
replied that though it hasn't been seriously considered, he would be open to a domestic travel
ban like what Italy did, and that such a national lockdown wouldn't be "out of the
question."
"That has not been seriously considered - doing travel bans in the country - though we are
keeping a lot of things in mind," Dr. Fauci said, before ending the interview.
While certain members of Congress were encouraging Americans to go out and live their lives,
Dr. Fauci said Americans should avoid bars and restaurants.
"I would like to see a dramatic diminution of the personal interaction that we see in
restaurants and in bars."
He added that any elective surgeries should be cancelled: "Anybody who doesn't need to be in
the hospitals...keep them out of the hospitals" he said on "Meet the Press".
Pressed about the response on "Face the Nation", Dr. Fauci said the "peak" of the outbreak
in the US will hopefully be lower than the numbers seen in Italy. "I want to be overreacting,"
Dr. Fauci said. He added that the US is practicing travel bans and containment and mitigation
in the country, and while "it is correct that case numbers will go up" he hopes that the US
will never get to that "really bad peak".
While the mortality rate in China looked to be about 3%, a number that is "quite high", Dr.
Fauci noted, he hoped the rate in the US would be around 1%, which is still 10x greater than
the flu's 0.1%.
"Overwhelmingly more people recover from this than have serious trouble," Dr. Fauci
said.
Should Americans get on a plane right now? Fauci was asked on "Face the Nation".
Dr. Fauci said vulnerable Americans should avoid all travel and avoid public places whenever
possible.
"If you're elderly...you shouldn't put yourself in a place where you're around crowded
people."
It may come to the situation that we "strongly recommend...myself personally I wouldn't go
to a restaurant because I have an important job to do" Dr. Fauci said. But he didn't say
whether all Americans should avoid going out, or if he would support blanket closures.
Asked what's the plan if hospitals get overwhelmed, Dr. Fauci assured his interviewer that
the government's efforts should prevent this from happening, though he couldn't rule out the
possibility that this would happen...and plan for it.
"We're doing everything we can to make sure that worst case scenario will happen. It's
possible they could be...but if in fact there's a scenario that's very severe, it's
conceivable that would happen, which is why we have a strategic national stockpile of
ventilators and things like that.
"We would not be being realistic if we weren't to say that possibility didn't exist...but
there is planning to prevent that."
As far as how long it will take for the US to "rev up" testing, he said his understanding of
where we are with the "companies who are getting involved" is that we will have "enough" tests
in a few days, and that the number will only continue to go up.
If you think about it, NYC enornment with its high density of population, subway and
recirculating airconditioners is not that different from the environment of the cruise ship like
Daemon princess. So around 10% of population can be affected. That's over one million. assuming
15% of severe cases that 150K patients.
1. FULL RESPONSE
2. MASS MOBILIZATION
3. POLITICAL DETERMINATION
4. TIMELY POLICY ADJUSTMENT
5. EASING ECONOMIC PAIN WHILE FIGHTING DISEASE
6. TRANSPARENCY, COORDINATED ACTION
7. POWER OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY
China is a civilization state making the West look highly immature.
So yes, connect the dots. Why is Italy worse than the US - when the US trades far more?
Because the US sees it as a war about economic supremacy? The US has no problem trading with
China. The problem starts when China trades with other countries. The US is waging a war
against european countries by forcing them to sanction on Russia (while itself trading with
Russia), sabotaging Nord Stream 2, and now we have this mishap in Italy which happens to
trade with China. Connect the dots indeed.
Here is a table showing the "doubling time" of the spread of the virus for various
countries. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Italy's doubling time is 4 days, which brought its health care system near to collapse. Note
that the US doubling time is 3 days! And this may be an underestimate because testing has
been hindered, and many case are undetected. The doubling time for China is an impressive 32
days.
It was a somber Donald Trump who spoke at the White House today to declare a "national emergency" and that "we're doing a great
job." Gone was his language about exaggerated fears and a "hoax" surrounding the coronavirus. His own daughter, Ivanka, stayed home
rather than visit the White House because of her exposure to an Australian official who has the coronavirus.
Not only was the shift in tone marked, but Trump also referred constantly to the numerous public health experts and corporate
CEOs flanking him as he faced the biggest crisis of his presidency. Dr. Anthony Fauci indicated that the coronavirus may remain virulent
for another eight to nine weeks: "I can't give you a number. It depends how successful we are." Trump himself sought to convey confidence
by emphasizing that his administration had moved quickly to impede the spread of the coronavirus, including quickly ordering travel
bans. How effective will his emergency declaration prove?
The most important thing that the administration can do is work to remove the uncertainty surrounding the extent of the spread
of the virus. Until there is more clarity, economic activity will be hobbled as investors and businesses retreat from incurring any
additional risk. In this regard, Trump's decision to announce an emergency was a case of better late than never. Failure is not an
option. Left unchecked, the worst-case estimates are that the coronavirus could kill up to 1.5 million people and turn America into
Italy writ large. Writing in the Washington Post today, the Italian journalist Monica Maggioni underscores just how grim that prospect
would be: "I find myself confined in a place where time is suspended. All the shops are closed, except for groceries and pharmacies.
All the bars and restaurants are shuttered. Every tiny sign of life has disappeared. The streets are totally empty; it is forbidden
even to take a walk unless you carry a document that explains to authorities why you have left your house. The lockdown that began
here in Lombardy now extends to the entire country."
Some of the most important pledges Trump made were that he would offer up to $50 billion in federal funding to states to battle
the coronavirus. He indicated that hospitals can now "do as they want. They could do as they have to." He added, "I'm urging every
state to set up emergency operations centers effective immediately." He indicated, in response to a question after his opening statement,
that he himself would undergo a coronavirus test, something that he had previously resisted. Trump also said that up to five million
tests would be available by the end of the month-a lofty goal. The danger for Trump is that, as is his wont, he is overpromising.
Still, the move to establish drive-thru testing at places like Walgreens and Walmart parking lots makes good sense. Trump's weakest
moment by far came when he responded to a question about the lack of testing that until now has badly hampered efforts to stop the
virus-"No, I don't take responsibility at all."
To help prop up the economy, he indicated that government purchases for the strategic reserve would be increased. Wall Street
responded positively to Trump's remarks as the stock market rose, ending up almost two thousand points on Friday. But Trump also
pooh-poohed a multi-billion dollar bill backed by House Democrats to address the coronavirus crisis, remarking that they "are not
doing what's right for the country." Among other things, it does not include the payroll tax relief that Trump is supporting. House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is vowing to vote on the bill.
For now, the measures that Trump announced today will mark a significant shift in his administration's approach to the pandemic.
Former Food and Drug Administration head Scott Gottlieb tweeted, "Actions by White House today to sharply increase testing capacity
and access, declare a national emergency, implement new steps to protect vulnerable Americans, support assistance for those hardest
hit by mitigation steps, all very important. Will meaningfully improve readiness."
Here's a useful infographic showing the Italian experience of COVID-19. Really drives
home the need for us to support more vulnerable groups, including elderly and those with
chronic diseases. pic.twitter.com/nlk1lPW0Xk
@reiner
Tor Seems people who smoke have made themselves more vulnerable to the bug. They have
done this despite 50 years of vigorous anti-smoking measures and propaganda.
They knew the risks. They rolled the dice. Now they should be sent to the end of the line
and treated last.
My Chinese colleague from work's parents have been holed up in an apartment in Zhengzhou
for 45 days with only minimal freedom to go out for supplies by appointment, then a virtual
battery of heat and temperature tests to get back in the building.
The city (10 million) hasn't had a new case for 2 weeks and they were on the verge of
relaxing the strict isolation rules.
Then some Chinese fella who'd been travelling in Europe returned to Zhengzhou, travelled
home on public transport doing his shopping on the way, and it turns out he's infected.
I don't know the precise translation from mandarin but it was something like "the whole
city want to string him up"
News from an Italian guy in Switzerland: situation in Italy is heavy, people are frightened
but mostly they are following the instructions to stay at home and limit the visits. And
people are also frightened because we do not know exactly how this virus works, how much time
this blockade will last, and what we will do after. Our society is no more accustomed to
turmoils and lack of reliable information.
On the other side of the Alps, still there are less cases but I want to stress that Italy and
rest of Europe are following very different instructions. In Italy, they tested almost
everybody at the beginning, and now only people with symptoms but also everybody requesting a
test for himself. In Europe, in general they are testing only old people with symptoms, while
refusing to test young people. So it is easy that the real number of cases are
underestimated. Looking at the numbers, I guess that this underestimation in United States is
much larger.
Italian government didn't want to be blamed, and probably they want to approve some
controversial laws during this blockade when nobody will go to protest. They didn't care
about economic damages. Other governments in Europe are more worried for the economy,
probably they did a bet to resolve the epidemics while avoiding to discover the real
numbers.
Concerning the number of deaths, in Italy is much higher for at least three reasons: lack of
beds in the hospitals, heavily reduced due to the austerity with respect to the rest of
Europe, an aging population, and the fact that they are ascribing to the virus also deaths
occurred probably for previous illnesses in the presence of the virus as concause. In most of
other countries, they are not checking after death.
We will hold on, meanwhile let us stay tuned also on big markets collapse and, obviously, on
Syria
" While the plans of the federal government remain classified, recent reports have
revealed that the military and intelligence communities -- now working with the NSC to
develop the government's coronavirus response -- have anticipated a massive explosion in
cases for weeks. U.S. military intelligence came to the conclusion over a month ago that
coronavirus cases would reach "pandemic proportions" domestically by the end of March. That
military intelligence agency, known as the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI),
coordinates closely with the National Security Agency (NSA) to conduct "medical SIGINT
[signals intelligence]."
And those are just from today. The Chinese media has been touting this narrative (quick
recover, fast-track resumption of the economy, keep the targets for the year) since the
epidemic started.
Man Walks Out Of 'Quarantine Motel' & Goes Shopping, Hops On Public Bus by
Tyler Durden Sat,
03/14/2020 - 16:25 The pattern in many major cities hard-hit by coronavirus has been to utilize
hotels as quarantine centers as local health facilities become overwhelmed. And yet in some
instances especially in the West, there's ambiguity surrounding quarantine of confirmed or
suspected cases as legally 'mandatory' or merely 'urged' and strongly suggested.
Though nearly unprecedented in recent American history, 'motel quarantine' is fast becoming
a thing in places like Washington State and California, the latter witnessing Gov. Gavin Newsom
issuing an executive order Thursday allowing some city authorities to take over hotels and
motels for medical use , including in places like Sacramento and the San Francisco area. Such
methods are being used especially for returning cruise ship passengers with potential
exposure.
But in an explosive and unusual story which is likely to become a more common occurrence as
'motel quarantine' grows and as the line between civil liberties vs. health authorities'
mandate remains blurred, Bloomberg details that a man walked straight out of coronavirus
quarantine near the hardest hit area near Seattle and onto a public bus .
"In an incident sure to stir debate around the Seattle-area's motel for isolating people who
might have the coronavirus, one of its first tenants walked out, despite a security guard's
attempts to stop him," the Bloomberg
report begins.
"The man arrived Thursday while awaiting test results, according to a statement from King
County, which recently bought the site in a suburb south of Seattle to ease the burden on local
hospitals."
The following morning the man was seen crossing the street to browse a local convenience
store where he allegedly shoplifted.
He then boarded a public bus, which was immediately after taken out of service when
authorities learned of the situation.
According to The Seattle Times , the man's test later came back negative, but not before
causing
a local panic :
By Friday evening, the person's test results had come back negative, but not before
raising questions about how the county planned to address staffing and security at quarantine
facilities as more people become sick.
The person had been experiencing homelessness and was placed at the motel Thursday
night.
The incident underscored what will be a staggering challenge ahead of public officials as
the virus continues to spread: how to quarantine "hundreds or thousands" of people who become
sick in coming months and aren't able to stay in their own homes, or don't have homes in
which to stay .
The Econo Lodge-turned-coronavirus-quarantine site on Central Avenue North in Kent, near
Seattle:
"The fears that we have stated and the concerns we had from the beginning when we knew this
facility was going to be put in Kent at that motel have all come true,"
said Kent Mayor Dana Ralph. "The things we predicted would happen have happened."
The motel had recently been purchased by the county and repurposed as a quarantine site - a
deeply controversial moved which has drawn the ire of local residents, who fear more such
"breaches" involving quarantined and possibly infected individuals.
Hot Topics I am in a city
with a curfew (enforced ?) where only pharmacies, supermarkets and those stores where someone
from China sells all sorts of household stuff are open. Rome hasn't reached the dread levels of
Wuhan and Milan, but the Italian government is trying to get ahead of the curve.
It is strange and alarming that there is little traffic (it is also impressive that Romans
don't obey the traffic code even when there is little traffic). People are really trying to
stay home all the time (I was semi home bound before it was cool).
I have learned about the activities which people consider absolutely necessary. A large
fraction of people walking around are walking dogs. Many people are wearing masks (absolutely
sold out everywhere) and gloves. I discover there are some things I have to touch. These
include an ATM (alarmingly often) and cash.
One striking thing is that people wait outside of the supermarkets and pharmacies. This is a
rule that does not have to be enforced -- people are scared. Good thing it's not cold in Rome
during March (or February or actually ever at all in the globally warmed year of our lord
2019/2020). This makes me notice the high rates of infection in Iceland and Norway. I guess up
there (where I have been in July with a rain coat) the choice is risk of Covid 19 or of
frostbite.
The extreme measures (not just ordered but orders which are actually obeyed, by Romans) are
impressive because as of the day before yesterday there were only 200 cases in Lazio (region
which includes Rome). The fact that one of the cases was governor Zingaretti (also head of the
Italian Democratic Party) might have amde a difference.
The news spreads even faster than the virus. Down here the health care system is under
strain but not overwhelmed (yet) but people read about (and see on TV) reports on how in
Lombardy Triage has reaquired it's original meaning. During World War I, It was red = critical,
yellow = serious monitor but not critical, black = doomed. In normal times black now means
deceased.
In Lois Armstrong Airport New Orleans during Katrina there were living people with black
tags (for will nor survive a flight and so will die here). I was appalled. Now in parts of
Northern Italy there aren't enough respirators for patients who would die without one. This is
part of why the Italian case fatality rate is high. It is also important that Italians have had
low fertility for decades and are old on average.
I guess I haven't written anything that people don't know already. I will update when the
wave of contagion overwhelms us. I fear that I will be giving readers a hint of future action
in their home town.
Reply about conditions in Hattiesburg for Judy2Shoes.
Did some running around the local Medical Industrial Complex this morning. What a difference
a week makes. The attitude about the coronavirus is completely different from last week.
Now there are people walking around the clinic and hospital wearing masks, and some
'rubber' gloves. Signs up everywhere about precautions for the coronavirus. When I went to
pay off a small bill associated with Phyl's leg case, there was a big sign in the glass door
for the Financial Department saying that, essentially, if you show the basic symptoms, do not
come into that office but go to the ER entrance for evaluation.
No signs of panic here yet. This region is still "low information" concerning the spread
and severity of the pathogen, but at least it is now a major concern locally.
Thank you so much, Ambrit. That makes me feel better. I have a lot of relatives in MS, but
their level of concern has been shaped by the MSM. It's so much better to hear from someone
like you, who is actually paying attention.
In my neck of the woods (eastern Washington), I've been trying for weeks to get people to
make prudent purchases of staples to store away – just in case.
One elderly neighbor kept saying people were overreacting, but I kept at her, pointing out
having a few extra supplies on hand might be a good idea and wouldn't be hoarding.
When I told her that Trump wasn't telling the public the truth, she said that people don't
understand that it's his job to keep the public calm. I could have walked her through the
dangerous results of his lying (and everything else he's doing), but I let it go. At least
she started to collect supplies a couple of weeks ago, and now she's in somewhat of an
overreacting mode. I don't care. Whatever keeps her safe.
Less than stellar news addendum.
Do call that 'Assisted Living' place and agitate for your uncle now. This afternoon, local
news announces that Hattiesburg has first probable case in Mississippi. A man who visited
Florida recently is "self isolated at home" after a first positive test result. Secondary
test being done now. Test happening at State lab.
See:
https://www.wdam.com/2020/03/12/forrest-county-man-is-first-presumptive-coronavirus-case-miss/
At least the locals are mentally prepared now
Be strong.
That Lake Havasu travesty is all "Water Over The Dam" now. The real 1930s War was between
the Coastals and the Okies. See "The Grapes of Wrath" for a literary rundown on that one. (No
Pink P -- y Hats in that fight. People were killed.)
Insofar as the States have their own Health Authorities, they could ban certain types of
"contagious" people from entering their environs. I have seen cases of local Organs of State
Security requiring exile from a particular State in return for non-prosecution of certain
non-violent offenses.
The balance of power between the States and the Federal Government is an always evolving
'situation.'
WORTH REPEATING: In 2018, Trump fired the entire US pandemic response team.
These were the experts with decades of experience dealing with precisely the kind of
situation we are in today.
Michael Grunwald @MikeGrunwald
I had forgotten my own reporting that @SenatorCollins
stripped $870M for pandemic preparations out of the 2009 stimulus.
[page image from Grunwald's book, The New New Deal ]
There was some discussion here the other day about who's responsible for the sorry state
of the CDC
and pandemic preparation in particular. Now, the Dems controlled all the WH, Senate and House
in 2009,
so obviously they share some of the blame, but if Collins hadn't demanded this,
it probably wouldn't have happened.
Dr. Brian Monahan, attending physician of Congress, told a closed-door meeting of Senate
staffers this week that 70 million to 150 million Americans -- a third of the nation -- could
contract the coronavirus. Dr. Anthony Fauci testified that the mortality rate for COVID-19 will
likely run near 1 percent.
Translation: between 750,000 and 1.1 million Americans may die of this disease before it
runs its course. The latter figure is equal to all the U.S. dead in World War II and on both
sides in the Civil War.
Chancellor Angela Merkel warns that 70 percent of Germany's population -- 58 million people
-- could contract the coronavirus. If she is right, and Fauci's mortality rate holds for her
country, that could mean more than half a million dead Germans.
Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis called Merkel's remark "unhelpful" and said it could cause
panic. But Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch seemed to support Merkel, saying between 40
percent and 70 percent of the world's population could become infected.
Again, if Fauci's 1 percent mortality rate and Lipsitch's estimate prove on target, between
3 billion and 5 billion people on earth will be infected, and 30 million to 50 million will
die, a death toll greater than that of the Spanish Flu of 1918.
There is, however, some contradictory news.
China, with 81,000 cases, has noted a deceleration in new cases and South Korea appears to
be gradually containing the spread of the virus.
Yet Italy, with its large elderly population, may be a harbinger of what is to come in the
West. As of Thursday, Italy had reported 12,000 cases and 827 deaths, a mortality rate of
nearly 7 percent. This suggests that the unreported and undetected infections in Italy are far
more numerous.
In the U.S., the death toll at this writing is 40, a tiny fraction of the annual toll of the
tens of thousands who die of the flu.
But the problem is this: COVID-19 has not nearly run its course in the United States, while
the reaction in society and the economy approaches what we might expect from a boiling national
disaster.
The stock market has plunged further and faster than it did in the Great Crash of 1929.
Trillions of dollars in wealth have vanished. If Senator Bernie Sanders does not like
"millionaires and billionaires," he should be pleased. There are fewer of them today than there
were when he won the New Hampshire primary.
@Carlton
Meyer I've been following a few doctors on Youtube, for about a month now (dispassionate,
evidence-based docs), and their opinions vary on how serious this is.
What I don't is, if this is as contagious as they say (and it does seem to be) and as
life-threatening as they say, then given that there are several cases in NYC, why are we not
already seeing thousands of deaths there- a city where millions are crammed together daily,
many without good hygiene, many who have been for several weeks now, using public
transportation. I don't get it. It would seem the effects of any virus that were as bad as
they're saying, would already be reaching peak zombie level conditions in places like NYC,
Chicago, Boston, SF and DC.
Like the man on viriculture.com used
to say, healthy life =/= long life. We work towards extending one's lifespan, yet we don't
extend their "health span". We just extend the period when one is already falling apart. The
older you are, the more meds you need, the more healthcare you need etc etc.
So the longer the lifespan the bigger the load on healthcare and pension funds.
The main problem is, that our economic and cultural systems are at this point, 90%
biologically incompatible with us. A good chunk of our lives we study (especially so when you
study something like medicine, i believe at this point it's for genuine masochists). By the
time you get to a nice position in your career you're probably going to be older than 35. For
good birth rates etc that's unnaceptable.
So, the solution is to extend the "health-span". Preferably, you need to slow aging down at
least by 10, maybe even 15 years, while keeping the overall lifespan the same. The current way
is simply unsustainable
@Kratoklastes ...Like all the
other viruses that have floated around over the years be this one is being hyped up.
The hype works precisely because of your remark #3 but it will die a natural death after
everyone makes their money and the public gets bored.
I mean if just 1B people get a shot costing $50 that is a whole lot of Yuan. Store owners
also appear to be sneaking that extra markup on soaps and disinfectants and toilet paper. Y2K
also comes to mind and I am sure that Aids /HIV continues to kill more people annually than
this virus ever will. In the meantime I caution all nose pickers to leave those buggers alone
and not report any unusually large specimens. It will only skew the statistics and increase
the panic.
60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead
due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold
or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got
there first.
You request that opinions should be limited to fact based
but in the next sentence you state "The truth is that NONE OF US really knows for a fact what
this virus can do, we are all guessing."
well .whether fact based or speculative here are two alternate views>
"My own view on the Coronavirus situation, is that I trust the Chinese Government to be
doing all it can possibly do, to contain the epidemic.
There are a lot of people there, living in close proximity
In that context, Steve Bannon is just using inflammatory language throughout, to diss the
CCP
I can well understand why the CCP will not allow any US personel anywhere near the
patients, nor allow them to have access to any of the medical data.
If Bannon is implying that the CCP has something to hide, then the CCP also has its own
suspicions as to how this virus suddenly appeared
A lot of stuff has in the past come out of Livermore Labs and in the UK from Porton Down,
which "should not" be released I know of southern coastal cities in the UK being sprayed with
viruses from the air in the 1950s – a deliberate programme supported by the UK
government
The CCP will also be fully aware of British activities within Syria and then there is the
Skripal incident, a home-grown Boris the Buffoon manufactured crisis
If one looks at UK and US official government behaviour towards Hong Kong, then one can
easily surmise that there are attempts to find other means to destabilise China
Just saying "
Another view >
"There was an interesting item on Facebook a few days back, claiming to be written by a
Chinese military official, a staunch supporter of the communist party and the government, but
a man 'with a conscience.'
He claimed the virus was manufactured with a view to causing reduction of higher brain
functions (i.e. lowering the IQ) and inducing docility into those who are protesting in Hong
Kong.
It was first tested, according to his narrative, more discreetly on rounded-up Uighurs in
the prison camps, well away from anywhere likely to be observed, and everyone who was
exposed, died. There was a massive clean-up and cover-up operation
Realising it needed more work if it was to be deployed in HK, they did some further
modifications and had intended to do a new test in Hubei, but this was pre-empted by a
shoot-out near the meat market that has been mooted as the source of the outbreak. Someone,
I'm not sure now who he reckoned it was, attempted to 'kidnap the bio weapon in order to grab
the technology it represented, but the consignment was hit by a bullet and the virus escaped.
Those in charge ensured there were no survivors as witnesses in that area.
He further claimed that the mortality rate is actually 100% but that it has been put about
that it is only 2% – this underplaying being with the complicity of the USA, Russia and
the UK and presumably the EU, in order to forestall mass panic. He claimed only those wearing
hazmat suits stand any chance, and that the pandemic will claim the lives of all but top
officials who have recourse to protective measures. He said that the actual symptoms in the
final stages are up to five days of agonising pain with internal organs haemorrhaging in a
similar way to Ebola.
Of course, the article was anonymously written, as he said his life and that of his family
would be forfeit if he were to be identified. Which makes it a narrative that is easy to fake
but impossible to completely refute. "
Like the Saker, I do not think the corona virus outbreak was deliberate. The first thing that
people crafty enough to unleash this sort of thing would think of is blowback.
Perhaps the depopulationists–but this is a really ineffective way of going about
it.
I do think, however, that it arose in a "laboratory" of tens of millions of human subjects
all undergoing an enormous experiment. Please humor me a moment.
If there were a deliberate element in all of this, it would be the hype and rush be the
first to implement an untested technology about which dire warnings were already being
sounded.
Virologists and epidemiologists have yet to discount that the coronavirus was a bio attack.
This does NOT mean that it was an attack, merely that the possibility of a bio attack cannot
be discounted. While there remains a lot of circumstantial and anecdotal "evidence" that this
was an economic attack perpetrated by America against China, this does NOT prove conclusively
that such an attack took place, nor does it prove that such an attack did not take place.
There is an abstract submitted to ChinaXIV (a research website) that, although not yet peer
reviewed, suggests that the virus dd NOT originate at the Wuhan Seafood Market and that it
was introduced:
Any reference as to who introduced the coronavirus to the market is pure speculation at
this juncture, although the circumstantial and anecdotal evidence could be construed as
overwhelming against the US considering the timing, geographic location and proximity to the
Wuhan Seafood Market of the US soldiers present for the International Military Games.
I am not a virologist or epidemiologist (I am an engineer), however it is not completely
out of the realms of possibility for a virus to make the transition from animal to human
host; and the conditions in which animals are kept in Wuhan and surrounding areas is
certainly not of the same standard as the West – both from the perspective of hygiene
and humanitarian considerations. Another abstract that does looks into the origins of the
virus states:
"The genomic features described here may in part explain the infectiousness and
transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although genomic evidence does not support the
idea that SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory construct, it is currently impossible to prove or
disprove the other theories of its origin described here, and it is unclear whether future
data will help resolve this issue. Identifying the immediate non-human animal source and
obtaining virus sequences from it would be the most definitive way of revealing virus
origins."
Much mention has been made of the corona-virus in question (COVID-19) binding to the ACE-2
receptors found in the lungs and heart – most particularly in those of Asian heritage.
It would not be outside the realms of science for this to be a logical target for the virus,
given its geographic location, but the hypothesis of it being engineered to target a specific
racial genotype is also not outside the realms of possibility.
"Our findings indicated that no direct evidence was identified genetically supporting
the existence of coronavirus S-protein binding-resistant ACE2 mutants in different
populations (Fig. 1a). The data of variant distribution and AFs may contribute to the
further investigations of ACE2, including its roles in acute lung injury and lung
function12. The East Asian populations have much higher AFs in the eQTL variants associated
with higher ACE2 expression in tissues (Fig. 1c), which may suggest different
susceptibility or response to 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 from different populations under the
similar conditions."
I agree with Andrei's analysis that a bio-weapon is both unwieldy and difficult to control
when used in a purely military application, but when used as an economic weapon, the
possibility is mentioned in the odious The Project for a New American Century's (PNAC) report
titled "Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century."
"advanced forms of biological warfare that can 'target' specific genotypes may transform
biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool."
This does not prove that the tragedy unfolding out of Wuhan was a bio-weapon, but
certainly demonstrates the possibility of intent. At this juncture, neither side of the
argument can provide any proof, so the the hypothesis remains pure speculation. The Chinese
government is not directly accusing the US of a bio attack, but it is extremely worrying that
both the Russian and Chinese governments remain highly suspicious.
"CORONAVIRUSES HAVE ALWAYS INFECTED HUMANS, PANIC IS UNWARRANTED"
Posted by agencycyta | Mar 9, 2020 | Science , Featured , Health | 0 |
"Coronaviruses have always infected humans, panic is unwarranted"
According to an Argentine virologist in France, Pablo Goldschmidt, there is no evidence to
indicate that the fatality or morbidity of COVID-19 is superior to that caused by influenza
viruses or the common cold.
(CyTA-Leloir Foundation Agency) -. For the virologist and infectious disease specialist
Pablo Goldschmidt, the panic surrounding the strain of coronavirus identified in China
(COVID-19) is as unwarranted as the one created in 2003 with severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS). ) or in 2009 with the influenza A (H1N1) virus.
"The ill-founded opinions expressed by international experts, replicated by the media and
social networks repeat the unnecessary panic that we have previously experienced. The
coronavirus identified in China in 2019 causes neither more nor less than a strong cold or
flu, with no difference until today with the cold or flu as we know it, "says Professor
Goldschmidt, also a biochemist, pharmacist and psychologist graduated from the UBA, volunteer
for the World Health Organization (WHO), former praticien hospitalier of the public hospitals
in Paris and author of the book "People and microbes, invisible beings with whom we live and
make us sick" (2019).
The Argentine specialist lives more than four decades in Europe. At the Faculty of
Medicine of the hospital center de la Pitié-Salpetrière in Paris, he obtained
diplomas in pharmacokinetics, clinical pharmacology, neuro-psychopharmacology and
pharmacology of antimicrobials. At the Université Pierre et Marie Curie Paris VI he
received a doctorate in molecular pharmacology. The theoretical and practical training of the
Paris Curie and Pasteur Institutes also concluded with degrees in fundamental virology and
molecular biology. As a volunteer at the WHO, he integrates humanitarian missions in Guinea
Conakry, Bissau, Pakistan, Ukraine, Cameroon, Mali and the Chad border with Nigeria. And it
aspires to obtain from the Argentine State a mandate to exercise the right to speak before
the international organization.
In dialogue with the CyTA-Leloir Agency, Goldschmidt expresses its tension in the face of
the global terror generated by the quality of information that is disseminated about the new
coronavirus and considers it necessary that the data that is propagated be placed in the
geographical and social context. "You can't create hysteria on the entire planet," he
says.
-Which viruses are considered responsible for respiratory diseases?
Viral respiratory conditions are numerous and are caused by several viral families and
species, among which the respiratory syncytial virus (especially in infants), influenza
(influenza), human metapneumoviruses, adenoviruses, rhinoviruses, and several coronaviruses,
already described years ago. It is striking that earlier this year global health alerts have
been triggered as a result of infections by a coronavirus detected in China, COVID-19,
knowing that each year there are 3 million newborns who die in the world of pneumonia and
50,000 adults in the United States for the same cause, without alarms being issued.
– The fact that it is transmitted by saliva or by cough increased the fear of the
population?
Many microorganisms are transmitted by this route in humans. The cold, transmitted by
saliva and cough, is caused by more than 150 rhinoviruses. Ten million people were infected
by saliva and cough with the tuberculosis agent in 2018, of which 1 million were children and
205 thousand died. The same happened with bacterial meningitis, transmitted by saliva, which
affected more than a million people in a year. Measles is also transmitted by saliva, hence
the urgency to protect the population with vaccines.
-You. Do you consider the international alerts launched due to the coronavirus to be
exaggerated?
Our planet is the victim of a new sociological phenomenon, scientific-media harassment,
triggered by experts only on the basis of laboratory molecular diagnostic analysis results.
Communiqués issued from China and Geneva were replicated, without being confronted
from a critical point of view and, above all, without stressing that coronaviruses have
always infected humans and always caused diarrhea and what people call a banal cold or common
cold. Absurd forecasts were extrapolated, as in 2009 with the H1N1 influenza virus.
And the risk of complications?
A cold can present as a benign, self-limiting disease; but it is known that all
respiratory diseases, however banal they may be considered, can severely affect the frailized
people, people with cardiocirculatory problems over 65 years, people with metabolic
disorders, immunosuppressed, transplanted and, above all , to poorly fed people without
shelter, and to those who do not have access to competent health teams that provide them with
effective medicines. This situation, clearly revealed for so many other diseases, is repeated
in all infections and COVID-19 is no exception.
Why does each individual become infected and react differently to viral infections?
The first step for a virus to infect a person depends on the virus's ability to recognize
"locks" or proteins on the surface of cells in certain organs, not all. Once it attaches to
its lock, it can penetrate the cell and put all the cellular machinery of the infected
subject at its service to replicate itself. It has been determined that there are individuals
with many "locks", others with few and others with easier "locks" to open, which is
determined by the genes. On the other hand, there is a defensive apparatus of proteins
encoded in DNA that is known by the name of "reactoma". In short, all humans are unique
living beings against microbial aggression and against the malignant transformations of our
tissues. Therefore, in certain individuals,
Is the coronavirus detected in China a new agent?
Those who launched the international alerts did not take into account data that shows
whether this virus or other similar viruses circulated in previous years. Or if people who
were already exposed to other coronavirus variants have partial or total protection against
the 2019 strain.
-Why do you not accept the extrapolation from one country to the other of the forecasts
issued by international agencies?
First, it is appropriate to compare the mortality and morbidity data with the number of
positive cases (those confirmed by the laboratory in relation to the number of severe cases
or the number of deceased persons). The first thing that emerges from the data, beyond the
biological criteria referring to the individual capacity to get sick and defend against viral
aggression, are doubts regarding the figures, if it is not considered that the affected
people did or did not have access to competent and equipped health, and if they received
timely treatments with adequate and bioequivalent drugs.
– Would these factors contribute to explain the differences in mortality and
morbidity between countries?
If there is no biological justification for individual predisposition, the difference
could be due to the quality of the medical institutions, the reasons that caused the time to
pass before the affected people go to health centers, or the quality of the training of
medical centers and the availability of resources to treat acute respiratory diseases. We
must impose moderation and use concrete data. There is no evidence to show that the 2019
coronavirus is more lethal than respiratory adenoviruses, influenza viruses, coronaviruses
from previous years, or rhinoviruses responsible for the common cold.
"The troops will help clean and deliver food in the designated "containment area" in a
one-mile (1.6 km) radius around the area where the contagion appears to have originated,
until the lockdown is lifted on March 25."
As part of such efforts, the government decided to designate call centers, clubs, gyms and
other establishments frequented by large numbers of people as high-risk areas and mobilize
more resources to quarantine them.
The move comes after an alarming new mass infection of the novel coronavirus was
reported at the call center in Guro, at a time when reports of new cases in Daegu, the
southeastern city at the center of the nation's COVID-19 outbreak, have been decreasing in
recent days.
My bet is that, since the South Korean government can't do preventive quarantine of
private business (because of the obvious fact it is a capitalist society), they are chasing
the virus where it bursts, quarantining the place where it is already given is a cluster.
That will make the South Korean map look like Swiss cheese - at best.
Might not it be prudent to take all personnel currently in basic training from all branches
and give them basic medic training and oxygen ventilator training and have them ready to
deploy where ever needed. The Lombard region of Italy is already considering lowering the
triage age from 70 to 60.
I know of a Miami emergency room tech who just finished a 72 hour shift, was given a 12
hour break who says they are overwhelmed and getting burned out.
MGM says guest at Vegas's 'The Mirage' tested positive
Denmark closes schools, will send 'non-critical' public employees home to work
New Jersey case total climbs to 23
DC Mayor declares public health emergency
Congressional doctor says up to
Cuomo confirms 39 new cases in NY, raising total to 212
First death in Indonesia
Confirmed cases in France top 2,000
Washington State to ban events over 200
Details of cruiseline industry's 'health and safety proposal' leak
'Waffle House' employee in Atlanta confirmed
UK reports 7th death
Chicago cancels St. Paddy's Day parade
NY sends in National Guard
IADB cancels meeting in Colombia as virus spreads across Latin America
Mnuchin says first part of virus stimulus plan will be ready in 2 days
Dr. Fauci warns virus 10x more deadly than flu and could infect millions if not handled
early
FEMA evacuates Atlanta office over coronavirus scare
3 Boeing workers test positie
Washington DC advises cancellation or postponement of all gatherings with more than 1,000
people
Harvard to prorate room and board for students
US cases surpass 1,000
UK Health Minister catches virus
Ireland, Bulgaria, Sweden report first deaths
Connecticut declares state of emergency
UK total hits 456 following largest daily jump on record (83 new cases)
Global cases pass 120,000
South Korea reports new outbreak in call center
Japan reportedly planning to declare state of emergency
* * *
Update (1650ET): Italy has confirmed that it will order all stores in the country that sell
items other than medicine and food to close. Factories can continue working, but all
restaurants and bars must close as well. The prime minister stressed that there is "no need for
a run on supermarkets."
Update (1635ET): NJ Governor and former Goldmanite Phil Murphy just announced 8 more cases
in the state, bringing its total to 23. The state has also confirmed its first case of
"community spread".
UPDATE: We now have 8 more presumptive positive cases of #COVID19 in New
Jersey.
• 3 female cases, 5 male cases
• 4 cases from Bergen County, 2 cases from Middlesex County, and 2 cases from Monmouth
County
• Range in age from 17- to 66-years-old
We've received $14 million in federal grants from @CDCgov to assist in our ongoing efforts
to contain the spread of #COVID19 . We're
working around the clock with our local, state, and federal partners to protect the health of
New Jerseyans.
b, time for a cooler head. Okay, as the Russian virologist said, a new virus is a 'meeting of
strangers', so we have to get to 'know' each other first and this takes time. So, just as we
got to 'know' the various flu varieties and built immunities to them, so too the virus gets
to 'know' us and undergoes its mutations. After all, if it kills all its hosts, it kills
itself.
The thing about 'bat' flu is that it seems to kill the old and the sick but leaves the
majority with well, flu and I'm one of those old folk (I'm almost 75 and with a bunch of
metal tubes in my heart but with a strong immune system, so wish me luck).
I think you're overreacting somewhat.
Is it because it's only the so-called developed nations that have a high preponderance
of older people that we're seeing this panic, or is because capitalism was on the verge of
meltdown anyway?
My feeling is that the barbarians have no compunction in sacrificing the old and sick.
Social Darwinism Rules OK! And don't forget, the wealthy are mostly old too!!
I'm not trying to minimise the impact, but my feeling is that it has more to do with the
falling rate of profit than the number of sick people.
Bruce Aylward, Deputy DG of WHO, who is interviewed in this article makes eminent sense
but his views have been universally ignored in the West (he spent time in China in February),
I more than suspect because of the West's racist anti-Chinese attitudes, else why ignore
virtually all of his recommendations?
... Massive testing in south Korea, 20k people a day, yields a lot of people in the
denominator who would count as healthy everywhere else. We don't get to have a "South Korean"
death rate unless we have south korean testing. With Euro testing we have to live with a
different Euro death rate. Another question would how many "European" or "American" cases
(i.e., cases in that are symptomatic enough to get officially recorded in Europe or America)
does south korea have? Then we could productively compare death rates.
Also, south korea is doing a lot compared to the west outside Italy:
In south korea right now, mobile testing centers are dispatched to places with new
positive results and widespread testing occurs, followed by isolation of positive cases.
They have closed schools. Universities throughout the country postponed the start of the
semester when only 31 official cases existed. Major buildings have thermal imaging at their
entrances. As many people as possible in public are wearing masks.
To all of that comes the fact that the South Korea outbreak was idiosyncratic, over half
of all cases emerging from Patient 31 associated with the Shincheonji church in a single
city, Daegu, which made containment easier.
Let's keep an eye on Germany since they're essentially doing nothing
Aside from testing, and it is unclear how widespread this is though we are told it is very
awesome and comprehensive and the absolute best. 2,120 cases right now in the earliest stages
of the pandemic.
"Italy will close all restaurants, bars and shops across the country in an effort to curb
the spread of coronavirus, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced on Wednesday.
Only pharmacies and supermarkets will be allowed to remain open, Conte added.
Restaurants will be allowed to be operational for food deliveries, but companies will be
required to implement remote working for all jobs, except those that require physical
presence, Conte added."
This sounds that they are getting advice from the Chinese and stopped waiting for the EU
'recommendations'. Next step is that the Italian gov need to offer some help to these
restaurants so that the people working there and those doing the deliveries get correctly
paid and that they and what they carry is clean.
"... One notable prediction: Osterholm lauds the Chinese for successfully working to control the outbreak -- but warns another wave of infection will follow upon workplaces and schools and shops reopening as the society begins returning to normal. ..."
One notable prediction: Osterholm lauds the Chinese for successfully working to
control the outbreak -- but warns another wave of infection will follow upon workplaces and
schools and shops reopening as the society begins returning to normal.
"The troops will help clean and deliver food in the designated "containment area" in a
one-mile (1.6 km) radius around the area where the contagion appears to have originated,
until the lockdown is lifted on March 25."
I find it puzzling that the new virus has spread all over Iran very quickly, whereas in other
countries it is more localised, including in China. It is also curious that it has infected
by far more of its lawmakers and government officials than elsewhere. Is there a reasonable,
rational explanation?
"... As I said on Monday, just looking at the number of COVID19 cases and the number of countries affected does not tell the full story. Of the 118,000 COVID19 cases reported globally in 114 countries, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries, and two of those have significantly declining epidemics. 81 countries have not reported any COVID19 cases, and 57 countries have reported 10 cases or less. ..."
"... "We’re in this together, to do the right things with calm and protect the citizens of the world. It’s doable" ..."
Today's WHO press briefing was excellent (link below). The questions being asked by journalists have improved significantly over
the last few weeks which has given the WHO team an opportunity to explain important points.
Today they looked at the situation in Iran, Korea, Italy and the sub Saharan Africa region. They also have officially declared
a Pandemic.
In the past two weeks, the number of cases of #COVID19 outside 🇨🇳 has increased 13-fold & the number of affected countries
has tripled.
There are now more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries, & 4,291 people have lost their lives.
Thousands more are fighting for their lives in hospitals.
In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of #COVID19 cases, the number of deaths, and the number of affected
countries climb even higher
WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and
severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction
We have therefore made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic
Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly. It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable
fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death
Describing the situation as a pandemic does not change WHO’s assessment of the threat posed by this coronavirus. It
doesn’t change what WHO is doing, and it doesn’t change what countries should do"
We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled
at the same time.
WHO has been in full response mode since we were notified of the first cases.
We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action.
We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear
As I said on Monday, just looking at the number of COVID19 cases and the number of countries affected does not tell the full
story. Of the 118,000 COVID19 cases reported globally in 114 countries, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries,
and two of those have significantly declining epidemics. 81 countries have not reported any COVID19 cases, and 57 countries have reported 10 cases or less.
We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of
this pandemic"
If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response, those with a handful of COVID19
cases can prevent those cases becoming clusters, and those clusters becoming community transmission
Even those countries with community transmission or large clusters can turn the tide on this coronavirus.
Several countries have demonstrated that this virus can be suppressed and controlled.
The challenge for many countries who are now dealing with large COVID19 clusters or community transmission is not whether they
can do the same – it’s whether they will.
Some countries are struggling with a lack of capacity. Some countries are struggling with a lack of resources. Some countries
are struggling with a lack of resolve.
We are grateful for the measures being taken in Iran, Italy and South Korea to slow the virus and control their COVID19
epidemics.
We know that these measures are taking a heavy toll on societies and economies, just as they did in China.
All countries must strike a fine balance between protecting health, minimizing economic & social disruption & respecting
human rights
WHO’s mandate is public health. But we’re working with many partners across all sectors to mitigate the social and economic
consequences of this COVID19 pandemic
This is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector – so every sector and every individual
must be involved in the fight
I have said from the beginning that countries must take a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach, built around a comprehensive
strategy to prevent infections, save lives and minimize impact
Let me summarize it in 4 key areas.
Prepare and be ready.
Detect, protect and treat.
Reduce transmission.
Innovate and learn"
I remind all countries that we are calling on you to (1):
activate & scale up your emergency response mechanisms
communicate with your people about the risks & how they can protect themselves
find, isolate, test & treat every #COVID19 case & trace every contact"
I remind all countries that we are calling on you to (2):
ready your hospitals
protect and train your #healthworkers
let’s all look out for each other"
There’s been so much attention on one word.
Let me give you some other words that matter much more, & that are much more actionable:
Prevention. Preparedness. Public health. Political leadership.
And most of all, People"
"We’re in this together, to do the right things with calm and protect the citizens of the world. It’s doable"
There have been a number of graphs out today looking at the rate of Covid infections. It is
exponential so far and appears to be tracking Italy's experience pretty well. If we continue
at this same rate we would reach the level at which other countries closed schools and had
mass transportation shutdowns in one or two weeks. Shutting down schools in particular will
be a tough decision. Kids seem to mostly be spared, but they may be disease vectors. OTOH if
they are shutdown a lot of health care workers will need to stay home. Near as I can tell I
would lose 10% or so of my staff and more on an intermittent basis.
As part of such efforts, the government decided to designate call centers, clubs, gyms and
other establishments frequented by large numbers of people as high-risk areas and mobilize
more resources to quarantine them.
The move comes after an alarming new mass infection of the novel coronavirus was
reported at the call center in Guro, at a time when reports of new cases in Daegu, the
southeastern city at the center of the nation's COVID-19 outbreak, have been decreasing in
recent days.
My bet is that, since the South Korean government can't do preventive quarantine of
private business (because of the obvious fact it is a capitalist society), they are chasing
the virus where it bursts, quarantining the place where it is already given is a cluster.
That will make the South Korean map look like Swiss cheese - at best.
"the US is particularly poorly set up to cope, thanks to our fragmented public health
system and overpriced, privatized and less than comprehensive health care. That bad situation
is made worse by the CDC being short on resources and hamstrung further by the Trump
Administration's PR imperatives."
Basically, it is expected that Europe manages the crisis less badly.
It has been interesting watching Dr. John Campbell's growing realisation & some shock
that everything is not well with the US healthcare system & he has received some abuse
but also support from Americans for his growing criticism.
His listing as requested of his 2 degrees & Phd, never mind his long front line
experience & his books I think shut some up for perhaps thinking that he was only a
nurse, but perhaps he shouda gone to NakedCapitalism.
...It is the overwhelming of ICUs and the whole health care system that makes the new
virus much more deadly than it would be without overwhelmed ICUs.
That is because it is a NEW virus and we do not have a basic immunity against it in our
societies like we do have against common flu viruses.
For your age Pat, the death rate may be 5% with functional ICUs available. With
overwhelmed ICUs the death rate for your age will be above 50%.
Consider that Lombardy, which is now overwhelmed, has now a death rate over all cases of
6% while South Korea, which effectively limited the spread through early testing and is not
overwhelmed, limited the death rate to below 1%.
Whatever you may think of the blogger, he is absolutely 100% correct here. Executive
summary: if you extend the time period over which the epidemic occurs by testing and
quarantining, you reduce the risk that your health care system will collapse, like it has in
Italy. South Korea is the case where testing has prevented their health care system
collapsing. Their health care system has not collapsed. Italy's has.
And now we will wait and see what happens in the U.S. Trump is betting his re-election on
your being right.
As of March 6, there were at least 228
confirmed cases of the new coronavirus -- the WHO has officially
named the disease that this virus causes COVID-19 -- across the U.S, the majority of which
have been in Washington state. Most of the initial cases were people recently traveled to China
or were released from quarantine aboard the Diamond Princess cruise
ship , which experienced an outbreak last month. Increasingly, though, new cases have
cropped up in people who have no known association with outbreak epicenters, suggesting that
the virus is spreading undetected through person-to-person contact and has been for weeks.
COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in 14
states, including Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, Illinois, Wisconsin, Massachusetts,
Rhode Island, New York
, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, New Jersey, Maryland, and
Indiana . In Washington State, where most coronavirus fatalities in the U.S. so far has
occurred, it's possible that
as many as 1,500 people may have been infected . There's also an outbreak at a long-term
care facility, the Life Care Center, in Kirkland, Washington, where 50 residents and employees
reportedly have COVID-19 symptoms.
On Thursday, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in New York reached 22, and 2,773
others in the state are under quarantines, the New York
Times reports. The same day, Maryland and New Jersey also reported new confirmed
cases; in total, the former state now has
three cases while the latter has two . Most recently,
Indiana
reported its first confirmed case.
The genetic sequences of patients in the Seattle-King County region suggest the virus has
been circulating there since about mid-January, when the first U.S. patient -- a man who
returned from Wuhan -- was diagnosed, Bedford wrote in the analysis, published online6
.
The spread of the virus has gone undetected in part because many infected people experience
only mild infections that could be confused for a cold or the flu, and in part because of
stumbles in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's effort to develop test kits for
state and local public health laboratories, which has meant very little testing has been done
in the country until the past few days.
... ... ...
"January 1 in Wuhan was March 1 in Seattle," Bedford told STAT. "Now would be the time to
start these interventions rather than waiting three weeks."
... ... ...
The stringent actions China took drove down new infections in Hubei province
-- where Wuhan is located -- to low levels, though transmission continues there. Other cities
in the country that started to see cases were able, with the same measures, to avoid the
explosive transmission Wuhan had experienced. Flattening the epidemic curve, as that phenomenon
is called, helps health care systems continue to function. An eruption of cases overtaxes
hospitals, leading to deaths that otherwise could have been avoided.
"China saw not much of an epidemic outside of Hubei because they acted early," Bedford
said.
The Last but not LeastTechnology is dominated by
two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand ~Archibald Putt.
Ph.D
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