Market will definitely collapse sooner or later. But nobody knows when. Especially taking into account FED Plunge protection team activities. If is stupid and irresponsible to talk about June crash...
20210424 : Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000 by further inflating money not by deflating it. So people who warn regular fold about risks are rare and they harm their own business, if they have any. Profit of doom and gloom are not popular and it is precarious occupation
He suggest that SPACs,Tesla, and bitcoin can serve are canary in the mine as for timing of bubble deflation.
This video is over two months old of course and the the market has continued to set new records. Ray Daleo also issued a warning as did Harry Dent. And market still is going up.
Because of the corona epidemic, investments in real production have dried up and the money has instead flooded the stockmarkets. I guess that if the crisis continues the stockmarket bubble can be kept inflated because the money has nowhere else to go!
electrification, especially in cars is a very long shot and here it is unlear if it make sense to invent int he currest companies involvedas they are in a bubble. Just look at Tesla. electrification, especially in cars is a very long shot and here it is unlear if it make sense to invent int he currest companies involvedas they are in a bubble. Just look at Tesla. ( Jan 22, 2021 , www.youtube.com )
Sometimes it is prudent to stop investing for a while.. And what the author calls savers and investors should properly be called speculators. Petty speculators that serve as the feed for Wall Street sharks.
A pipe bearing the Nord Stream 2 logo at a plant in Chelyabinsk, Russia, Feb. 26, 2020. PHOTO: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERS Listen to this article 5 minutes 00:00 / 05:07 1x Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma found himself in the company of a political titan, France's President François Mitterrand, on a gloomy day in December 1994. "Young man, you will be tricked, one way or another," Mitterrand told Mr. Kuchma, who was then the leader of a newly independent nation. Unsettled as he felt, Mr. Kuchma accepted the security assurances of the U.S., U.K. and Russia and signed the Budapest Memorandum. In exchange, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, then the third-largest in the world. Little did we know that two decades later one of the signatories -- Russia -- would attack Ukraine and occupy its sovereign territory. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma found himself in the company of a political titan, France's President François Mitterrand, on a gloomy day in December 1994. "Young man, you will be tricked, one way or another," Mitterrand told Mr. Kuchma, who was then the leader of a newly independent nation. Unsettled as he felt, Mr. Kuchma accepted the security assurances of the U.S., U.K. and Russia and signed the Budapest Memorandum. In exchange, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, then the third-largest in the world. Little did we know that two decades later one of the signatories -- Russia -- would attack Ukraine and occupy its sovereign territory. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. With the Nord Stream 1 and Turk Stream pipelines already operational, Nord Stream 2 will complete the encirclement of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states, decoupling our energy security from Western Europe. Russia has tried to bully Ukraine by threatening gas cutoffs, most recently in June 2014. But Moscow has always had to be careful -- a large percentage of Russia's gas reaches Europe through Ukraine. If Nord Stream 2 is built, this consideration will be null and void. With the Nord Stream 1 and Turk Stream pipelines already operational, Nord Stream 2 will complete the encirclement of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states, decoupling our energy security from Western Europe. Russia has tried to bully Ukraine by threatening gas cutoffs, most recently in June 2014. But Moscow has always had to be careful -- a large percentage of Russia's gas reaches Europe through Ukraine. If Nord Stream 2 is built, this consideration will be null and void. me title= NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP ( Apr 11, 2021 , www.wsj.com )
20210408 : Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years -- Archegos might be right on time by Paul Brandus Paul Brandus Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation's savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout -- in 2021 terms -- of about $265 billion. In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. -- Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation's savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout -- in 2021 terms -- of about $265 billion. In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. -- In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. -- In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. -- Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, "he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror" he felt. LTCM was deemed "too big to fail," and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions. Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue. The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP? A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue. The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP? A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP? A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. ( www.advisorperspectives.com )
20210405 : Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years -- Archegos might be right on time by 14 major U.S. financial institutions. Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue. The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP? A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue. The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP? A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP? A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here's what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it's based on 2019 data. ( www.wsj.com )
Neoliberal oligarchy fight against income redistribution by pushing perverted social justice
smoke screen and in effect can turn the USA in South Africa. Money quote from comments: "If I
read NASDAQ's proposal for Board representation in the Onion, I would have thought that even
these jokesters have exceeded the creativity threshold of ridiculousness I thought was possible."
and "What about the Mentally Ill? Do they get a seat? How about the Homeless?"
Three words about famele CEO and board room members: Elizabeth Holmes, Theranos. BTW what is
unclear in NASDAQ bold critical race theory support is: Can we exchange one black member for two
female members? Or not.
Also why stop at the boardrooms. Why not require the same in professional sport teams?
Nasdaq has, in its own words, embraced "the social justice movement." The
actual job of a stock exchange, however, is to ensure that trading is orderly and its listed
companies follow standard governance rules. But doing that doesn't earn the applause of the
political left. Progressive approval apparently means a lot to Nasdaq, which has officially
proposed to its regulator -- the Securities and Exchange Commission, newly chaired by Gary
Gensler -- to increase boardroom diversity through a "regulatory approach."
This proposal would require that Nasdaq-listed companies not only disclose the diversity
characteristics of their existing boards, but also retain "at least one director who
self-identifies as female," and "at least one director who self-identifies as Black or African
American, Hispanic or Latinx, Asian, Native American or Alaska Native, two or more races or
ethnicities, or as LGBTQ+."
Noncompliant firms must publicly "explain" -- in writing -- why they don't meet Nasdaq's
quotas. Nasdaq has, in its own words, embraced "the social justice movement."
The actual job of a stock exchange, however, is to ensure that trading is orderly and its
listed companies follow standard governance rules. But doing that doesn't earn the applause of
the political left. Progressive approval apparently means a lot to Nasdaq, which has officially
proposed to its regulator -- the Securities and Exchange Commission, newly chaired by Gary
Gensler -- to increase boardroom diversity through a "regulatory approach."
The Fed, in sync with the fiction writers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reports
consumer inflation as honestly as Al Capone reported taxable income.
Vardaman 3 hours ago
"A basket of things no one actually buys, with prices we just pull out of our
asses..."
Glock 1 hour ago
Yep, the BLS uses the CPI-W to literally avoid raising SS payments. The real rate of
inflation for seniors is close to 10% as the things they spend most of their money on like
medical care, medicine, food and utilities have gone through the roof
While the government claims they are entitled to 1.5% or less COLA's out of which comes a
bigger deduction every year for Medicare. Scam artists.
Don't worry, US gov't...you can always sell your LNG to Poland...hahahah!
LA_Goldbug 11 hours ago
I wonder what the price is for this LNG from all the way across the Atlantic.
rosalinda 10 hours ago
I read it is triple the price of the Russian gas. The Russians have all the advantages
here. Putin probably would not weaponize the gas, but who is to say some Russian leader in
the future might not take the opportunity? Europe is more dependant on Russian gas then
Russia is dependant on European money
XJ033858JH 10 hours ago
It's more like 3.3 times...10% for the big guy
BannedCamp 8 hours ago
Likewise, Russia could nuke the whole world, but they never used a nuke on any country
before, but the US has. Saying that Russia might do something that the accusing party (The
U.S) is actually doing right now (to Germany) is blatant hypocrisy.
After much arm-twisting, bullying and foghorn diplomacy towards its European allies, the
United States appears to have finally given up on trying to block the giant Nord Stream 2
project with Russia. What an epic saga it has been, revealing much about American relations
with Europe and Washington's geopolitical objectives, as well as, ultimately, the historic
decline in U.S. global power.
In the end, sanity and natural justice seem to have prevailed. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline
under the Baltic Sea will double the existing flow of Russia's prodigious natural gas to
Germany and the rest of Europe. The fuel is economical and environmentally clean compared with
coal, oil and the shale gas that the Americans were vying with Russia to export.
Russia's vast energy resources will ensure Europe's economies and households are reliably
and efficiently fueled for the future. Germany, the economic engine of the European Union, has
a particular vital interest in securing the Nord Stream 2 project which augments an existing
Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Both follow the same Baltic Sea route of approximately 1,222 kilometers
– the longest pipeline in the world – taking Russian natural gas from its arctic
region to the northern shores of Germany. For Germany's export-led economy, Russian fuel is
essential for future growth, and hence benefiting the rest of Europe.
It was always a natural fit between Russia and the European Union. Geographically and
economically, the two parties are compatible traders and Nord Stream 2 is merely the
culmination of decades of efficient energy relations.
Enter the Americans. Washington has been seething over the strategic energy trade between
Russia and Europe. The opposition escalated under the Trump administration (so much for Trump
being an alleged Russian stooge!) when his ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, fired off
threatening letters to German and other European companies arrogantly warning that they would
be hit with sanctions if they dared proceed with Nord Stream 2. Pipe-laying work was indeed
interrupted last year by U.S. sanctions. (So much for European sovereignty and alleged meddling
in internal affairs by Russia!)
The ostensible American rationale was always absurd. Washington claimed that Russia would
exploit its strategic role as gas supplier by extracting malicious concessions from Europe. It
was also claimed that Russia would "weaponize" energy trade to enable alleged aggression
towards Ukraine and other Eastern European states. The rationale reflects the twisted
Machiavellian mentality of the Americans and their supporters in Europe – Poland and the
Baltic states, as well as the Kiev regime in Ukraine. Such mentality is shot-through with
irrational Russophobia.
The ridiculous paranoid claims against Russia are of course an inversion of reality. It is
the Americans and their European surrogates who are weaponizing a mundane matter of commercial
trade that in reality offers a win-win relationship. Part of the real objective is to distort
market economics by demonizing Russia in order for the United States to export their own vastly
more expensive and environmentally dirty liquefied natural gas to Europe. (So much for American
free-market capitalism!)
Another vital objective for Washington is to thwart any normal relations developing between
Russia and the rest of Europe. American hegemony and its hyper-militaristic economy depend on
dividing and ruling other nations as so-called "allies" and "adversaries". This has been a
long-time necessity ever since the Second World War and during the subsequent Cold War decades,
the latter constantly revived by Washington against Russia. (So much for American claims that
Russia is a "revisionist power"!)
However, there is a fundamental objective problem for the Americans. The empirical decline
of U.S. global power means that Washington can no longer bully other nations in the way it has
been accustomed to doing for decades. The old Cold War caricatures of demonizing others have
lost their allure and potency because the objective world we live in today simply does not make
them plausible or credible. The Russian gas trade with the European Union is a consummate case
in point. In short, Germany and the EU are not going to shoot themselves in the foot,
economically speaking, simply on the orders of Uncle Sam.
President Joe Biden had enough common sense – unlike the egotistical Trump – to
realize that American opposition to Nord Stream 2 was futile. Biden is more in tune with the
Washington establishment than his maverick predecessor. Hence Biden began waiving sanctions
imposed under Trump. Finally this week, the White House announced that it had come to an
agreement with Germany to permit Nord Stream 2 to go ahead. The Financial Times called it a
"truce" while the Wall Street Journal referred to a "deal" between Washington and Berlin.
(Ironically, American non-interference is presented as a "deal"!)
The implication is that the United States was magnanimously giving a "concession" to Europe.
The reality is the Americans were tacitly admitting they can't stop the strategic convergence
between Russia and the rest of Europe on a vital matter of energy supply.
In spinning the eventuality, Washington has continued to accuse Russia of "weaponizing"
trade. It warns that if Russia is perceived to be abusing relations with Ukraine and Europe
then the United States will slap more sanctions on Moscow. This amounts to the defeated bully
hyperventilating.
Another geopolitical factor is China. The Biden administration has prioritized confrontation
with China as the main long-term concern for repairing U.S. decline. Again, Biden is more in
tune with the imperial planners in Washington than Trump was. They know that in order for the
United States to have a chance of undermining China as a geopolitical rival the Europeans must
be aligned with U.S. policy. Trump's boorish browbeating of Europeans and Germany in particular
over NATO budgets and other petty issues resulted in an unprecedented rift in the
"transatlantic alliance" – the euphemism for American dominance over Europe. By appearing
to concede to Germany over Nord Stream 2, Washington is really aiming to shore up its
anti-China policy. This too is an admission of defeat whereby American power is unable to
confront China alone. The bully needs European lackeys to align, and so is obliged to offer a
"deal" over Russia's energy trade.
All in all, Washington's virtue-signaling is one helluva gas!
21 play_arrow 2
Peter Pan 12 hours ago
What the USA accuses Russia of planning to do down the track is actually what the USA is
doing now. In other words it is the USA that is weaponusing the gas issue with threats and
sanctions.
_ConanTheLibertarian_ 12 hours ago remove link
The US had no business interfering. Bye.
buzzsaw99 12 hours ago
the usa should ask russia to teach them how to keep natural gas flowing when it gets
cold outside. lol
RedSeaPedestrian 11 hours ago
How to keep a windmill spinning comes first.
two hoots 11 hours ago
Well we did interfere and the results exposed our decline in multifarious ways, mainly
power in all things that matter in the international arena: diplomacy, defense, economic,
trust. We yet have great influence with our scientific and industrial capabilities but even
there others are reaching parity. Internally our unsupportable debt will hinder even that.
Basically it is the US Government (domestic/foreign affairs) that has led the charge of our
decline. "Government is dead" .... (we need a new and improved one to worship)
Max21c 11 hours ago
The Washingtonians & Londoners are just upset because now their buddies and puppets
in the Ukraine aren't going to be able to use control over the transit of Russian gas
through the Ukraine to hold Europe hostage and get their way. So everything that they're
accusing the Russians of doing in the future is what Washingtonians, Londoners, and the
Ukraine were doing in the past. They're just upset since their Ukrainian vassals can no
longer do their bidding's against Moscow and Eastern Europe.
MR166 9 hours ago
I am a USA loving conservative but I really never understood the objections to the
pipeline. Since energy = standard of living the pipeline does nothing but help mankind. The
US has no problem becoming totally dependent on China for drugs, medical supplies, chips
and manufacturing but is afraid of Russia shipping gas to Europe. How does that make any
sense at all???!!!
ar8 9 hours ago (Edited) remove link
I will explain it for you:
US companies wanted to sell their gas to Europe.
The US companies attempted to use the US to bully European countries, companies,
projects and people through sanctions and threatening fines.
It worked, a bit: numerous companies ceased working on it.
But the US, as usual, with its bullyboy tactics had been less effective and created more
self-damage than it expected. It has created many enemies as a result, which will hasten
the demise of the US government.
Despite its age, the following is still relevant to Nord Stream II: "War Is a Racket" is
a speech and a 1935 short book, by Smedley D. Butler, a retired United States Marine Corps
Major General and two-time Medal of Honor recipient.
Rudolph 2 hours ago
One more reason. We control Ukraine, Ukraine control gas to Germany. = We control
Germany.
Vivekwhu 9 hours ago
What is the point of having a financial/military/market empire if you don't have a
finger in every pie enriching your elite?
Chief Joesph 11 hours ago
It was simply a war of hate about anything Russian. The U.S. really had nothing to offer
Germany anyway. From the German perspective, they had to protect their own interests, and
since Russia was offering to sell them natural gas and the U.S. wasn't, the choice was
rather simple. Perhaps it might make better relationships between eastern block countries
and the west too.
The U.S. spends a great amount of time and resources "hating" other countries for no
reason at all. It's bigotry by any other definition. The U.S. practices a systematic and
especially politically exploited expression of hatred and hostilities. Not only do they
practice this against other countries, but among their own kind too. The U.S. ranks as one
of the more hateful countries in the world, only surpassed by the Middle East. Add that to
the reasons why Germany doesn't want to go along with U.S. temper tantrums.
LA_Goldbug 10 hours ago
Not "hating" but "bombing" is the right description of the US foreign policy
practice.
porco rosso 11 hours ago
Mr Putin is way too clever for these yankster clowns and makes them look like the fools
they are time and time again. That is why they hate him so much.
Max21c 11 hours ago remove link
Putin didn't have to outsmart them. The Europeans need the gas. Water does not usually
flow uphill.
porco rosso 11 hours ago
True. But in Germany there are a lot of treacherous transatlantic elements that wanted
to sabotage the pipeline at any cost.
These elements are Germans but they dont give a **** about Germany. Treacherous
scumbags.
wootendw PREMIUM 11 hours ago (Edited)
" The ostensible American rationale was always absurd. Washington claimed that Russia
would exploit its strategic role as gas supplier by extracting malicious concessions from
Europe. It was also claimed that Russia would "weaponize" energy trade to enable alleged
aggression towards Ukraine and other Eastern European states. "
The absurdity lies with the existence of NATO or the US being in NATO. It no more makes
sense for US to commit ourselves to Europe's defense against Russia than it does for Europe
to buy American NG for three times the price it can get Russia's for.
williambanzai7 PREMIUM 10 hours ago (Edited)
Well apparently some tard thinks it makes perfect sense for other readily imagined
strategic reasons none of which have anything to do with accountable governance.
Someone thinks NATO is a dog leash. An expensive dog leash.
yerfej 11 hours ago
The washington idiot cabal needs something to focus on to justify their existence so
they wander the globe telling everyone how to live and who they can trade with when they're
not busy starting or expanding wars. The reality is the US federal government is a
completely useless parasite who's ONLY function is to domestically terrorize its own
citizens and the other nations of the world.
known unknown 10 hours ago remove link
Nordstream II was built to a stop Ukraine from blocking gas to Europe which they already
did once, stealing gas which they have always done. Germany asked Russia to build it. The
dummy Bulgarians stopped a similar pipeline yielding to the US. Then they cried about it
when they realized they lost billions. No matter what's promised Ukraine will be cut out in
5 years if they continue hostilities towards Russians.
LA_Goldbug 10 hours ago (Edited) remove link
Most people conveniently forget or don't know about Ukraine's siphoning of the gas while
in transit to European countries.
Germany is as bad as the US. Thanks to Germany Yugoslavia was decapitated with help from
US and UK.
Greed is King 11 hours ago
Nordstream 2 is a trade deal between the EU (primarily Germany) and Russia.
Russia sells gas to the EU; and the EU buys gas from Russia.
2. Who the feck does America think it is that it thinks it can interfere with and make
demands of free and sovereign nations ?.
When the bully is beaten, nobody ever feels sympathy for him; America would do well to
think about that.
Samual Vimes 11 hours ago (Edited) remove link
Surroguts /proxies, what ever.
Unelected policy makers in all their purple clad glory.
Max21c 12 hours ago (Edited)
After much arm-twisting, bullying and foghorn diplomacy towards its European allies,
the United States appears to have finally given up on trying to block the giant Nord
Stream 2 project with Russia. What an epic saga it has been, revealing much about
American relations with Europe and Washington's geopolitical objectives, as well as,
ultimately, the historic decline in U.S. global power.
It may show a decline in US global power or it may just show a rise in Washingtonian
amateurishness, arrogance, obnoxiousness, naivete and stupidity...
all it does is show out in the open that certain people are quacks, flakes, and
screwballs. Why would anyone in their right mind waste time & efforts or political
capital or diplomatic capital/bonnafides on trying to do something so silly as block Nord
Stream 2... It just makes Washingtonians look ridiculous, silly, and absurd...
It's almost as crazy as making a horse into a Roman Senator or declaring a war on the
Neptune or attacking the sea... It appears as if right after the Berlin Wall came down
American elites and Washingtonians all joined the Mad King Ludwig cult and became
worshipers of everything crazy...
RedSeaPedestrian 11 hours ago remove link
Or even as crazy as making a Dementia patient a Roman Emperor. (Or is that a United
States President? I forget sometimes.)
hugin-o-munin 12 hours ago remove link
Whatever political games are being played there is no getting around the fact that
Europe and Russia will eventually start to get along and expand trade and industrial
cooperation. Most people know that both the US and UK want to prevent this because it will
diminish their current top dog positions wrt global trade and financial control. Few things
compare to trade and mutual beneficial cooperation when it comes to lowering the risk for
conflict.
Just like Europe should promote development and trade with northern Africa so should the
US with central and southern America. This would also put an end to the endless migrant
caravans that are putting a huge strain on both the EU and US today. It's actually a non
brainer and says more about these satanic globalists' true motive than anything else.
ReichstagFireDept. 9 hours ago remove link
Nord Stream 2 is your best indicator that Governments are realizing that Renewable
Energy is NOT the replacement for Conventional Energy.
Nat. Gas IS the clean Energy source that everyone was screaming for...now it's finally
worldwide and they don't want it?!
Sorry, your Green Marxist dream is ending.
geno-econ 9 hours ago remove link
U.S. should be grateful Russia is sharing its natural resources with West rather than
aligning with China. There is much more than natural gas---ferro manganese, ferro chrome,
uranium, enrichment, titanium, aluminum, fertilizer, wheat, timber products, etc. U.S.
trade with China essentially imports only two major resources---cheap labor and synthetic
opioids !
williambanzai7 PREMIUM 9 hours ago
Well, there's some plastic junk and red refugees in there as well.
geno-econ 9 hours ago
only wealthy red capitalists disguised as refugees from China
ar8 9 hours ago
You are assuming the US government thinks rationally.
The Kremlin said on Thursday it disagreed with some statements in an agreement between the
United States and Germany on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, insisting that Russia had never
used energy as a tool of political pressure.
The pact aims to mitigate what critics see as the strategic dangers of the $11 billion Nord
Stream 2 pipeline, now 98% complete, being built under the Baltic Sea to carry gas from
Russia's Arctic region to Germany.
"Russia has always been and remains a responsible guarantor of energy security on the
European continent, or I would even say on a wider, global scale," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry
Peskov told reporters.
Arby's Just Quietly Discontinued These 6 Menu Items See Dolly Parton Recreate Her Iconic
"Playboy" Cover 43 Years Later
WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - Germany has committed to take action on its own and back
action at the European Union level should Russia seek to use energy as a weapon or take
aggressive action against Ukraine, U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland said on
Wednesday.
"Should Russia attempt to use energy as a weapon or commit further aggressive actions
against Ukraine, Germany will take actions at the national level and press for effective
measures at the European level, including sanctions, to limit Russian export capabilities in
the energy sector," Nuland told lawmakers, adding that Germany would support an extension of
the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement that expires in 2024. (Reporting By Arshad Mohammed and
Jonathan Landay)
Neoliberalism is the key reason fro the drop in life expectancy
Notable quotes:
"... Declines or stagnation in longevity can signal catastrophic events or deep problems in a society, researchers say. ..."
"... More deaths from homicide, diabetes and chronic liver disease -- which is related to heavy alcohol use -- also contributed to last year's life expectancy drop, the CDC said ..."
"... The declines were largest for Hispanic and Black people, who as population groups were disproportionately affected by the pandemic . The largest drop for any cohort was 3.7 years, for Hispanic men, bringing their life expectancy to 75.3 years of age. ..."
Life expectancy in the U.S. fell by 1.5 years in 2020, the biggest decline since at least
World War II, as the Covid-19 pandemic killed hundreds of thousands and exacerbated crises in
drug overdoses , homicides and some chronic diseases.
... ... ...
The full toll of the pandemic has yet to be seen, doctors and public-health officials said.
Many people skipped or delayed treatment last year for conditions such as diabetes or high
blood pressure and endured isolation, stress and interruptions in normal diet and exercise
routines.
"That has led to intermediate and longer-term effects we will have to deal with for years to
come," said Donald Lloyd-Jones, chair of the department of preventive medicine at Northwestern
University Feinberg School of Medicine and president of the American Heart Association.
Life expectancy is a measure of a nation's well-being and prosperity, based on mortality in
a given year. Declines or stagnation in longevity can signal catastrophic events or deep
problems in a society, researchers say. Life expectancy fell in the U.S. by 11.8 years in
1918, during a world-wide flu pandemic. Many victims were young.
... ... ...
More deaths from homicide, diabetes and chronic liver disease -- which is related to
heavy alcohol use -- also contributed to last year's life expectancy drop, the CDC said...
Life expectancy would have fallen even more, the CDC said, if not for decreases in mortality
due to cancer, chronic lower-respiratory diseases such as bronchitis, emphysema and asthma, and
other factors.
The declines were largest for Hispanic and Black people, who as population groups were
disproportionately affected by the pandemic . The largest drop for any cohort was 3.7
years, for Hispanic men, bringing their life expectancy to 75.3 years of age.
U.S. longevity had been largely stagnant since 2010, even declining in three of those years,
due in part to an increase in
deaths from drug overdoses , rising death rates
from heart disease for middle-aged Americans and other public health crises. "Getting back
to where we were before the pandemic is a very bad place," said Steven Woolf, director emeritus
of the Center on Society and Health at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine
and author of a recent study comparing the effects of the pandemic on life expectancy in the
U.S. and other high-income countries. "We've got a larger problem here."
... ... ...
Drug-overdose deaths rose nearly 30% last year, driven by a proliferation of the deadly
synthetic opioid fentanyl as well as stress, isolation and reduced access to treatment during
the pandemic, public-health experts said. One study published this month found a 28.3%
decline in initiation of addiction treatment in California from March through October
2020..... ...
Life expectancy for white people dropped 1.2 years to 77.6 years in 2020, the lowest level
since 2002.
What is missing from this article is a comparison of the US with other advanced economies in
Europe and Asia. What is disturbing is how the US spends the most and achieves less than our
economic peers starting with expected average longevity. We had the lowest longevity averages
pre-pandemic and now we have dropped further. This is happening despite the fact that our
health care spending is twice the per capita of other advanced economies (Approx. $11K in the
US vs. $6K based on 2019 data). Contributing to our dismal longevity statistics, with respect
to other wealthy economies, are the highest rates of drug overdose deaths and suicides by
gun. This is just the tip of a long list of sad statistics where we are unfortunately number
1 or close to it. The usual (partisan) response is to claim its government's fault or the
fault of a greedy healthcare system or just say the data is wrong. So far, none of these
strategies is working very well.
Dave Berg SUBSCRIBER 1 hour ago
Life expectancy is the wrong phrase. It's current average life duration. COVID will have no
impact on the life expectancy of babies being born right now. I have two new grandchildren,
their life expectancy will be impacted by things we don't even know about yet.
"... Two world wars were fought to keep Germany down. The stated purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down. ..."
"... IMO US didn't cause NS2 friction because it thinks it benefits Russia, but exactly because it benefits Germany too much. ..."
"... You know, NATO, "Keep the Germans down..." and all that. US must not permit it's vassals to become too economically stronger than their master. They want to drag everyone they can down with them (and in shitter US goes) so they can still be king of the hill (or ad least shitter bottom). ..."
"... The most important point to know is that US hegemony in Europe is predicated on fear and hostility between Germany and Russia. ..."
"... There are many limitations to European strategic autonomy -- and the EU embodies those limits in many ways -- but the case of NS2 demonstrates an independent streak in German strategy. It amounts to a zero sum loss for Washington. ..."
"... Lebanon does illustrate the incredible reach of the Empire. A leverage so long that every door leads to self immolation. Your mention of the current spyware scandal is right on point. These are instruments of absolute power. ..."
"... While Trump is certainly no representative of humanity, it just as certainly doesn't look like his rise was in the playbook of the dominant faction of the oligarchy. Trump really seems to fit the mould of a Bonapartist, though recast in the context of contemporary America. This would indicate that the imperial oligarchy is in crisis, which itself could lead to fractures in the empire, and among the empire's vassals in particular. ..."
The sanctions war the U.S. waged against Germany and Russia over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline
has ended with a total U.S. defeat.
The U.S. attempts to block the pipeline were part of the massive anti-Russia campaign waged
over the last five years. But it was always based on a misunderstanding. The pipeline is not to
Russia's advantage but important for Germany. As I described Nord Stream 2 in a
previous piece :
It is not Russia which needs the pipeline. It can
sell its gas to China for just as much as it makes by selling gas to Europe.
...
It is Germany, the EU's economic powerhouse, that needs the pipeline and the gas flowing
through it. Thanks to Chancellor Merkel's misguided energy policy - she put an end to nuclear
power in German after a tsunami in Japan destroyed three badly placed reactors - Germany
urgently needs the gas to keep its already high electricity prices from rising further.
That the new pipeline will bypass old ones which run through the Ukraine is likewise to
the benefit of Germany, not Russia. The pipeline infrastructure in the Ukraine is old and
near to disrepair. The Ukraine has no money to renew it. Politically it is under U.S.
influence. It could use its control over the energy flow to the EU for blackmail. (It already
tried
once.) The new pipeline, laid at the bottom of the Baltic sea, requires no payment for
crossing Ukrainian land and is safe from potential malign influence.
Maybe Chancellor Merkel on her recent visit to Washington DC finally managed to explain that
to the Biden administration. More likely though she simply told the U.S. to f*** off. Whatever
- the result is in. As the Wall Street Journal
reports today:
The U.S. and Germany have reached an agreement allowing completion of the Nord Stream 2
natural gas pipeline, officials from both countries say.
Under the four-point agreement, Germany and the U.S. would invest $50 million in Ukrainian
green-tech infrastructure, encompassing renewable energy and related industries. Germany also
would support energy talks in the Three Seas Initiative, a Central European diplomatic
forum.
Berlin and Washington as well would try to ensure that Ukraine continues to receive
roughly $3 billion in annual transit fees that Russia pays under its current agreement with
Kyiv, which runs through 2024. Officials didn't explain how to ensure that Russia continues
to make the payments.
The U.S. also would retain the prerogative of levying future pipeline sanctions in the
case of actions deemed to represent Russian energy coercion, officials in Washington
said.
So Germany will spend some chump change to buy up, together with the U.S, a few Ukrainian
companies that are involved in solar or wind mill stuff. It will 'support' some irrelevant
talks by maybe paying for the coffee. It also promises to try something that it has no way to
succeed in.
That's all just a fig leave. The U.S. really gave up without receiving anything for itself
or for its client regime in the Ukraine.
The Ukraine lobby in Congress will be very unhappy with that deal. The Biden administration
hopes to avoid an uproar over it. Yesterday Politico reported that the Biden
administration preemptively had told the Ukraine
to stop talking about the issue :
In the midst of tense negotiations with Berlin over a controversial Russia-to-Germany
pipeline, the Biden administration is asking a friendly country to stay quiet about its
vociferous opposition. And Ukraine is not happy.
U.S. officials have signaled that they've given up on stopping the project, known as the
Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and are now scrambling to contain the damage by striking a grand
bargain with Germany.
At the same time, administration officials have quietly urged their Ukrainian counterparts
to withhold criticism of a forthcoming agreement with Germany involving the pipeline,
according to four people with knowledge of the conversations.
The U.S. officials have indicated that going public with opposition to the forthcoming
agreement could damage the Washington-Kyiv bilateral relationship , those sources said. The
officials have also urged the Ukrainians not to discuss the U.S. and Germany's potential
plans with Congress.
If Trump had done the above Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi would have called for another
impeachment.
The Ukrainian President Zelensky is furious over the deal and about being told to shut up.
But there is little he can do but to accept the booby price the Biden administration offered
him:
U.S. officials' pressure on Ukrainian officials to withhold criticism of whatever final deal
the Americans and the Germans reach will face significant resistance.
A source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv's position is that
U.S. sanctions could still stop completion of the project, if only the Biden administration
had the will to use them at the construction and certification stages. That person said Kyiv
remains staunchly opposed to the project.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration gave Zelensky a date for a meeting at the White House
with the president later this summer , according to a senior administration official.
Nord Stream 2 is to 96% ready. Its testing will start in August or September and by the
years end it will hopefully deliver gas to western Europe.
Talks about building Nord Stream 3 are likely to start soon.
Posted by b on July 21, 2021 at 17:13 UTC | Permalink
Did Merkel also get Biden to promise that neither he nor any of his clients (AQ, ISIS, etc.
etc. etc.) would perpetrate any "unfortunate incidents" or "disruptions" on NS 2?
And would any such promises be worth the breath that uttered them?
But it was always based on a misunderstanding. The pipeline is not to Russia's advantage
but important for Germany
I'm afraid it is you who doesn't understand. Two world wars were fought to keep Germany down. The stated purpose of NATO is to keep the
Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down.
They weren't trying to block NS2 to keep Russia out but to keep Germany down,
I beg to differ. IMO US didn't cause NS2 friction because it thinks it benefits Russia, but
exactly because it benefits Germany too much.
You know, NATO, "Keep the Germans down..." and all that. US must not permit it's vassals
to become too economically stronger than their master. They want to drag everyone they can
down with them (and in shitter US goes) so they can still be king of the hill (or ad least
shitter bottom).
That is why there is also pressure for all western countries to adopt insane immigration,
LGBT, austerity policies and what not. What a better way to destroy all these countries, both
economically and culturally, or adleast make them far more worse than US, it is only way US
can again become "powerhouse", like after WW2.
Does this represent a fracturing of the EU? or maybe a change in direction?
What b is pointing out about how if it were Trump....only means that the bullying approach
by empire didn't work and now we are seeing face saving bullying and backpedaling like crazy
in some areas.
I roll my eyes at this ongoing belief that Trump represented humanity instead of all or
some faction of the elite....as a demigod it seems.
the "facts" as you state them are not quite right.
1. China is ruthless. They waited until the last possible second to sign a deal with Iran,
thus ensuring they are getting the best possible price for Iran's oil, basically robbing Iran
blind. The poor Iran didn't have a choice but to agree. Even today, Putin will NOT say how
much China is paying for gas on Siberia pipeline and a lot of people think China is robbing
Russia blind on the deal. A second Siberia line without a NS2 will put Russia is very bad
negotiation position and China in very good one, giving them the advantage to ask for any
price of Russia and get it.
2. Merkel is leaving anyway in September and thw Green party that will be taking over HATES
RUssia with passion. The NS2 is far from done deal, it needs to be insured. Plus it will fall
under the EU 3rd energy package making sure Germany doesn't use it 100% . The NS2 will never
be 100 usable, the Green party will see to that. AT best it will be only 50% usage.
And so on and so on.
Funny how in today's world, we all have different facts. My facts are different than YOUR
facts. My facts are just as relevant as your facts.
What is more, the most dangerous potential alliance, from the perspective of the United
States, was considered to be an alliance between Russia and Germany. This would be an
alliance of German technology and capital with Russian natural and human resources.
The article explains a lot, more than just Germany or Russia.
They weren't trying to block NS2 to keep Russia out but to keep Germany down...
Germany would be 'down' no matter how much financial power it accumulates - i.e regardless
of NS2. The imperial garrison at Rammstein AFB will make sure of that. What the Americans fear is the symbolic meaning of NS2 in terms of geopolitical influence
for Russia. The loss of maneuverability against Russia that results from a key vassal not
being able to move in complete obedience to Uncle Sam's wishes.
The pipeline construction battle has been won, not the energy flow war.
The Financial Empire is most likely resorting to some CHARADE to find an excuse to later
stop the gas flow through Nord Stream 2. Empire's bullying was clearly exposed through
sanctions and it LOST the battle of stopping the pipeline construction. So it moves to the
next battle to find an excuse to stop the gas flow. Empire's evil intent is visible in these
words, "the U.S. also would retain the prerogative of levying future pipeline sanctions in
the case of actions deemed to represent Russian energy coercion, officials in Washington
said."
The Financial Empire has worked hard over the last century to prevent Germany from allying
herself with Russia. It wants to control energy flowing in Eurasia and its pricing. The war
will be only won when the Financial Empire is defeated and its global pillars of power
DISMANTLED.
"The 'heartland' was an area centered in Eurasia, which would be so situated and catered
to by resources and manpower as to render it an unconquerable fortress and a fearsome power;
and the 'crescent' was a virtual semi-arc encompassing an array of islands – America,
Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Japan – which, as 'Sea Powers,' watched over the
Eurasian landmass to detect and eventually thwart any tendency towards a consolidation of
power on the heartland."
Has the Financial Empire stopped interfering in other regions?
"US, Germany Threaten Retaliatory Action Against Russia in Draft Nord Stream 2 Accord -
Report...."
"As the US and Germany have reportedly reached a deal on the Nord Stream 2 project,
Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing the obtained draft text of the agreement, that it
would threaten sanctions and other measures if Russia tried to use energy as a 'weapon'
against Ukraine , though it did not specify what actions could provoke the
countermeasures.
"According to the report, in such a case, Germany will take unspecified national
action , a decision that may represent a concession from Chancellor Angela Merkel, who
had previously refused to take independent action against Moscow over the gas pipeline that
will run from Russia to Germany." [My Emphasis]
The article continues:
"On Tuesday, Ned Price, a spokesman for the US State Department, told reporters that he
did not have final details of an agreement to announce, but that 'the Germans have put
forward useful proposals, and we have been able to make progress on steps to achieve that
shared goal, that shared goal being to ensure that Russia cannot weaponize energy
."
" The US was hoping for explicit language that would commit Germany to shut down gas
delivery through Nord Stream 2 if Russia attempted to exert undue influence on Ukraine .
Germany, on the other hand, has long rejected such a move, stating that such a threat would
only serve to politicize a project that Merkel stresses is solely commercial in nature." [My
Emphasis]
The overall motive appears to be this:
"The accord would also commit Germany to use its influence to prolong Ukraine's gas
transit arrangement with Russia beyond 2024, possibly for up to ten years . Those talks
would begin no later than September 1, according to the news outlet." [My Emphasis]
So, here we have the Outlaw US Empire meddling in the internal affairs of three
nations--Germany, Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine cannot afford Russian gas as it has no rubles
to pay for it. Thus if Ukraine has no money to buy, then why should Gazprom be obliged to
give it away freely? What about other European customers who rely on gas piped through
Ukraine; are they going to see what they pay for get stolen by Ukraine? And what happens when
the pipelines breakdown from lack of maintenance since Ukraine's broke thanks to the Outlaw
Us Empire's coup that razed its economy? Shouldn't the Empire and its NATO vassals who
invaded Ukraine via their coup be forced to pay for such maintenance? And just who
"weaponized" this entire situation in the first place?
From my understanding, NS 2 was mutually beneficial for Germany and Russia.
As noted, Germany desperately needs energy and relying on the outrageously priced and
unreliable US LNG was not a viable option.
Russia benefits also.
1.No more high transit fees Russia pays Ukraine. I imagine some of that was finding its way
into US pockets after 2014.
2.Ukraine supposedly helped itself to plenty of stolen gas from the pipeline. That will
stop.
3.Ukraine was occasionally shutting down the pipeline for political reasons until Russia paid
the ransom. Not anymore.
So, Russia and Germany were both highly motivated to finish the pipeline ASAP.
Germany would be 'down' no matter how much financial power it accumulates - i.e regardless
of NS2.
The imperial garrison at Rammstein AFB will make sure of that.
Putin not too long ago (can't find the article now) said he was prepared to help Europe
gain its independence should they wish to do so, Rammstein or no Rammstein.
What the Americans fear is the symbolic meaning of NS2 in terms of geopolitical influence
for Russia. The loss of maneuverability against Russia that results from a key vassal not
being able to move in complete obedience to Uncle Sam's wishes.
What they fear should this deal go ahead is a Germany/Russia/China Axis that would control
the world island and thus the world.
I was convinced that the US of Assholery had lost its infantile anti-NS2 'battle' in
September 2020, after watching an episode of DW Conflict Zone in which Sarah Kelly
interviewed Niels Annen, Germany's Deputy FM. Annen came to the interview armed to the teeth
with embarrassing facts about US hypocrisy including, but not limited to, the fact that USA,
itself, buys vast quantities of petroleum products from Russia each year.
The interview is Google-able and, apart from pure entertainment value, Sarah is much
easier on the eye than Tim Sebastian...
1. China is ruthless. They waited until the last possible second to sign a deal with Iran, thus ensuring they are
getting the best possible price for Iran's oil, basically robbing Iran blind.
Hmmm... I seem to remember Iran shafting China on the south Pars gas field when it looked like the JCPOA was looking
likely...
If this memory of mine was correct (it may not be) then you really can't blame China for a little commercial payback.
In any case it was shown as soon as JCPOA Mk.1 was passed Iran RAN, not walked, to smooch up to the west for business, not
China, not Russia. So if its just business for Iran then its just business for China.
In our eagerness to expose the empire's shortcomings in a quick 'gotcha!' moment we
shouldn't rush head first into false premises. To suggest Dear Uncle Sam is concerned with
anything other than his own navel is naive. He's the man with the plan. He knows that down
the road, Oceania's eastern border won't run along the Dnieper but right off the shore of
Airstrip One.
As has been mentioned before, the NN2 pipeline gives Germany leverage over Russia ,
not the other way around.
US => Germany => Russia.
Which is now plan b for the US. If then they can use their leverage over Germany to
steer it in any direction it wants to vs. Russia.
This will probably be followed by "targeted" sanctions on specific Politicians, Bankers
and Heads of industry. They only need to propose such sanctions individually for them
to have an effect. Using Pegasus for inside information to Blackmail those it wants to.
*****
Example of a sanctions racket :
Similar to the potential sanctions on any Lebanese Politian or Group Leaders if they get Oil
from Iran, Russia or China. The Lebanese population be damned.
"Apparently US Treasury has informed the government of Lebanon, that if any Oil
products from Iran make it into Lebanon, in any way; the government of Lebanon and all its
members will be sanctioned. This includes the Central Bankers"
Just in case you didn't understand how the crisis in the country is manufactured.
Pegasus again:
"leaks on the targets of Israeli spy program Pegasus, show hundreds in
Lebanon including the elected leadership of every party, every media outlet, & every
security agency, have been targeted by clients in 10 countries; all belonging to the
Imperialist camp.
But it is very easy to guess by looking at who are the external imperialist forces
active in Lebanon. USA/UK/France/Turkey/Germany/Canada/Israel/Qatar; that's eight. Plus Saudi
Arabia." *******
PS. Lebanon; This comes as a response to Sayyed Nasrallah stating in his last speech
that if the State in Lebanon is not able to provide fuel, he will bring it at the expense of
Hizbullah from Iran, dock it in the port of Beirut, and dared anyone to stop it from reaching
the people.
*****
Germany will only be the latest victim as the Mafia-US "protection" racket is ramped
up.
Both b and the many commenters raise excellent points. Yes, the US wants to hurt both Russia
and Germany. And yes the US *definitely* fears close cooperation between Moscow and Berlin.
But the main take home lesson is that the US failed despite enormous efforts to block NS2.
Russo-German cooperation is inevitable and the world will be better for it.
>>a lot of people think China is robbing Russia blind on the deal
Why would be Russia building Power of Siberia 2 and 3 to China then? Or selling LNG too?
You don't have much knowledge on the topic, the way it looks. A giant gas plant was built
near the border with China, the second biggest gas plant in the world, because the gas for
China is rich in rare elements, thus turning Russia in of the the biggest producers of
strategic helium, not to mention extracting many other rare elements. China gets gas that has
been cleaned of anything valuable from it, with the exception of the gas itself.
>>merkel is leaving anyway in September and thw Green party that will be taking
over
The latest polls show clear lead for CDU/CSU. And it looks like its too late.
>>the NS2 will never be 100 usable, tthe Green party will see to that. AT best it
will be only 50% usage.
Do you even follow what has been going on? Germany is free not to buy russian gas, that
is, to be left without gas if this is what it wants.
Do you see how nat gas prices exploded in Europe recently? Do you know why is that?
Because Russia refuses to sell additional volumes via Ukraine's network. It is a message to
finish the issues with NS 2 pipeline faster and then everything will be fine, there will be
plenty of space for new gas volumes, and the gas price will drop.
It is the UNSC resolutions of 2006, 2007 and 2010 which have laid the backbone for the
incremental diplomatic, economic and material warfare against Iran. Without them, there would
be no narrative framing Iran as an outlaw nor justification for crippling sanctions. That
Iran should even be subjected to the JCPOA is in itself an objective injustice.
Each of these resolutions could easily have been blocked by the two permanent members of
the UNSC we go to much lengths on this forum to depict as selfless adversaries of the Empire.
All they had to do was raise a finger and say niet. In other words, by their actions, these
two members placed Iran in a very disadvantageous trading position.
So, did they profit from this position of strength?
"According to the draft deal, obtained by Bloomberg, Washington and Berlin would
threaten sanctions and other retaliation if Russia 'tries to use energy as a weapon against
Ukraine', with Germany being obligated to take unspecified actions in the event of Russian
'misbehaviour' . [My Emphasis]
The article then turns to the interview:
"Professor Glenn Diesen of the University of South-Eastern Norway has explained what is
behind the US-Germany row is." [That last "is" appears to be a typo]
I suggest barflies pay close attention to Dr. Diesen who's the author of an outstanding
book on the geoeconomics of Russia and China, Russia's Geoeconomic Strategy for a Greater
Eurasia . I judge the following Q&A to be most relevant:
"Sputnik: The Biden administration waived sanctions on the firm behind the gas project,
Nord Stream 2 AG, and its chief executive, Matthias Warnig. At the same time, Secretary of
State Antony Blinken stated in June that the pipeline project was a Russian tool for the
coercion of Europe and signaled that the US has leverage against it. What's behind
Washington's mixed signals with regard to the project? How could they throw sand in Nord
Stream 2's gears, in your opinion - or are Blinken's threats empty?
"Glenn Diesen: The mixed signals demonstrate that the completion of Nord Stream 2 was a
defeat for the US. Biden confirmed that he waived sanctions because the project was near
complete. Sanctions could not stop the project [link at original], rather they would merely
continue to worsen relations with Berlin and Moscow. The best approach for Washington at this
point is to recognise that Nord Stream 2 is a done deal, and instead Washington will direct
its focus towards limiting the geo-economics consequences of the pipeline by obtaining
commitments from Berlin such as preserving Ukraine's role as a transit state [Link at
original].
"The US therefore waives sanctions against Nord Stream 2, yet threatens new sanctions if
Berlin fails to accept US conditions and limitations on Nord Stream 2. Blinken's threats
are loaded with 'strategic ambiguity', which could be aimed to conceal that they are merely
empty threats . However, strategic ambiguity is also conducive to prevent Berlin from
calculating the "costs" and possible remedies to US threats. Furthermore, ambiguity can be
ideal in terms of how to respond as it is not a good look to continuously threaten allies."
[Emphasis original]
The professor's closing remarks are also very important regarding Merkel's successor.
Where I disagree is with the notion that the Outlaw US Empire has geoeconomic leverage over
the EU--military yes, but the Empire is just as uncompetitive versus the EU as it is versus
China.
So, did they profit from this position of strength?
Of course they did, let's be real. China and Russia are not going to be the all benevolent saviors of the world, they never
were, never will.
They will always serve their interests first and foremost. Sometimes, they do get suckered
into UNSC resolutions like those you spoke of. Sometimes, there're backroom horse trading
that we're not privy to and little countries are just chips on the table...
The best we can hope for is that they can behave with more integrity than currently shown
by the incumbent anglospheric bloc in their re-ascendancy.
Either we ditch the UNSC system or everybody get nukes, because i can't see the current
UNSC members willing ditch their own, ever.
Lysander is correct.
The most important point to know is that US hegemony in Europe is predicated on fear and
hostility between Germany and Russia.
Types of interdependence between Germany and Russia, eg. NRG security, are a direct threat
to US dominance over Europe as a whole.
There are many limitations to European strategic autonomy -- and the EU embodies those
limits in many ways -- but the case of NS2 demonstrates an independent streak in German
strategy. It amounts to a zero sum loss for Washington.
Way too much confusion over what Nord Stream 2 really means.
1) Russian gas transiting Ukraine had already fallen from 150 bcm to the high 90s/low 100s
before Nord Stream 2 goes online.
Even after NS2 goes online, a significant amount of Russian gas will still transit via
Ukraine.
2) Energy demand generally increases over time, not decreases. Russian gas exports aren't
increasing in a straight line, but keep in mind that there are significant new competitors
now and in the process coming online. These include Azerbaijan as well as the ongoing
pipeline struggle through the Black Sea/Turkey/Eastern Med.
I never believed there was any chance of NS2 not completing; the only question was
when.
Lebanon does illustrate the incredible reach of the Empire. A leverage so long that every
door leads to self immolation. Your mention of the current spyware scandal is right on point.
These are instruments of absolute power.
What we need now is a worldwide Me Too movement to denounce this leverage. Taking that
first step would require a lot of courage for any blackmailed individual, but the one little
breach could lead to a flood of world citizens just about fed up with the Empire's shit.
It pains me that I do not remember exactly who it was, but one of the more erudite posters
here mentioned some time ago that Trump seemed more like a Bonapartist figure than a fascist
or a typical and simple representative of a faction in the oligarchy. While Trump is
certainly no representative of humanity, it just as certainly doesn't look like his rise was
in the playbook of the dominant faction of the oligarchy. Trump really seems to fit the mould
of a Bonapartist, though recast in the context of contemporary America. This would indicate
that the imperial oligarchy is in crisis, which itself could lead to fractures in the empire,
and among the empire's vassals in particular.
It is unwise to downplay the significance of Trump coming to power in 2016, regardless of
what feelings one may have about the individual himself. The conditions that led to the rise
of Trump not only persist, but have intensified. Those conditions cannot be resolved by mass
media gaslighting and social media censorship, which actually seems to be having an effect
more like holding the emergency relief valve on a boiler closed; it quiets an annoying sound,
but causes the underlying issue to grow more severe.
Basically, further splits in the EU are inevitable. It is the timing of those splits that
is difficult to predict, but the accuracy of that prediction hinges upon the accuracy of our
assessment of events occurring now. Interestingly, Trump is still part of these unfolding
events.
Fracturing NATO and the West hmmm ... If Germany gains any independence from U.S.
coercion they are 'fracturing Europe'. Bad Germany.
Germany must forever remain a vassal state of the U.S. by allowing the U.S. to use another
vassal state to control their energy supply. And who says we don't believe in freedom. Neocons are such vile creatures. Always twisting words but remember, whenever they say
something, the exact opposite is true.
One issue underlying this fiasco is I believe that the neocons / Atlantic Council were 100%
certain that Russia did not have the expertise to lay pipelines at the required depths, and
once Allseas was facing sanctions, the project would never be completed.
I believe that the exact pricing formula for Power of Siberia is confidential, but this
much is known:
"The price of Russian gas supplies to China increased in the second quarter of 2021 for
the first time since deliveries started via the Power of Siberia pipeline in 2019, but daily
delivery volumes fell in April, Interfax reported on Sunday.
Russian gas giant Gazprom GAZP.MM has said it supplied China with 3.84 billion cubic
metres of gas via the Power of Siberia pipeline in its first year of operation.
Citing Chinese customs data, Interfax said the price of gas increased to $148 per thousand
cubic metres, rising from $121 in the first quarter, and reversing a downward trend."
Also, Victoria Nuland informed the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today about Biden's
cave to Russia. That must have been brutal for her. Regardless, nice to see a rare display of
sanity from s US administration.
The primary and only objective of the US Foreign policy vis-a-vis Europe since WW2 has
been to prevent Russia and Germany (now read the German run EU project) coupling up, that's
it, nothing else matters on Europe.
The completion of N-2 presents a serious blow tho this aim, the new pipeline is a must for
Germany, it must get finished, without it Germany's supply of energy would have been almost
fully controlled by the Americans who have either direct or indirect authority over every
major source of hydrocarbons except for Venezuela and Russia, the latter only partly, the
Ukrainian pipeline is fully in their sphere of influence.
Energy fuels everything from private dwellings to major corporations, it's together with
labour and technology the most important ingredient in every economy. To lose control of it
would have been a catastrophe for Germany, in particular if one takes into account the secret
treaty between Germany and the Allies (read the US) from 1949.
"On 23 May 1949, the Western Allies ratified a new German constitution, known as the
"Basic Law" or Grundgesetz.
However, two days prior, a secret state treaty - Geheimer Staatsvertrag - was also signed to
grant complete Allied
control over education and all licensed media, press, radio, television and publishing houses
until the year 2099.
This was confirmed by Major-General Gerd-Helmut Komossa, former head of German Military
Intelligence in his
book, "Die Deutsche Karte" or The German Card".
What's interesting about Power of Siberia-1 is that the gas is being stripped -- refined at
the newly completed Amur Gas Plant -- of its components prior to being piped into China. I
don't know if Germany's petrochemical industry will be deprived in similar manner with
NS2.
CD Waller @36--
Nothing in the energy production realm is carbon neutral. ROSATOM has mastered the fuel
cycle which means most if not all toxic waste will now be burned for energy. New reactors do
NOT use water as coolant. Clearly you need to update what you know about nuclear power.
The Russian 'victory' is very narrow and mostly consists of the patience and determination to
follow-thru while consistently being derided/attacked by Western media, pundits, and
politicians:
Since Russia/Gasprom owns NS2 100% (paying for half the construction cost outright and
financing the rest), there was never much need to stop construction, only to stop/limit
consumption. The 'trick' was to find a way to accomplish US/NATO goals that would not make
German leaders look like puppets.
Biden's approach looks good compared to Trump's heavy-handed approach. As they are BOTH
spokesman of the Empire's Deep State, we can surmise that this is merely good cop / bad cop
theatrics.
This USA-GERMAN agreement makes Germany appear to voluntarily support EU/NATO -
a good thing(tm) that most Germans will accept without question. But behind the scenes,
it's unlikely that there was ever any real choice, just a mutual desire to fashion a
'smart' policy that didn't undermine German political leaders.
Germany can now be pressured to support USA-Ukraine belligerence - if they don't they
will be portrayed as not living up to their obligations to US/NATO/EU/Ukraine as enshrined
in this agreement.
If Russia retaliates against German purchase reductions in any way they will be labeled
as a politically-driven, unreliable supplier. That will 'invite' sanctions and spark
efforts to force EU/Germany to eliminate all Russia goods from their markets.
Russia and China are likely to be increasingly linked in Western media/propaganda.
Deficiencies of one or the other will apply to BOTH.
The next few winters in EU will be very interesting.
Jackrabbit @41 incorrectly says Russia owns NS2 100% It's owned by Nord Stream 2 AG, and
here's its
website listing its financial investors, while its shareholders/owners are global. The
company is located in Zug, Switzerland. Here we are told who the financial companies
are :
"In April 2017, Nord Stream 2 AG signed the financing agreements for the Nord Stream 2 gas
pipeline project with ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, and Wintershall. These five
European energy companies will provide long-term financing for 50 per cent of the total cost
of the project."
As with the first string, Russia doesn't own it 100% nor did it finance it completely;
rather, its stake was @50% It appears both Nord Streams will be managed from the same
location in Zug. I hope the company produces a similar sort of book to record its
accomplishment as it did for the first string pair, which can be found and downloaded here
.
Who is paying for it: Russia's energy giant Gazprom is the sole shareholder of the
Nord Stream 2 AG , the company in charge of implementing the €9.5 billion ($11.1
billion) project. Gazprom is also covering half of the cost. The rest, however, is being
financed by five western companies: ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper and
Wintershall.
Emphasis is mine.
<> <> <> <> <>
Nord Stream 2 AG is a German company that is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Russia's
Gazprom. The German subsidiary has borrowed half of the construction cost but is 100% owner
of the NS2 project.
From karlof1's link to Nord Stream 2 AG's Shareholder and Financial Investors page makes it
clear that NordStream 2 AG is a subsidiary of Gazprom international projects LLC, which is,
in turn, a subsidiary of Gazprom. Under "Shareholder" there is only one company listed:
Gasprom.
PS I was mistaken: Nord Stream 2 AG is a Swiss company, not a German one.
"4. Germany can now be pressured to support USA-Ukraine belligerence - if they don't they
will be portrayed as not living up to their obligations to US/NATO/EU/Ukraine as enshrined in
this agreement.
If Russia retaliates against German purchase reductions in any way they will be labeled as
a politically-driven, unreliable supplier. That will 'invite' sanctions and spark efforts to
force EU/Germany to eliminate all Russia goods from their markets."
Germany has been portrayed as not living up to its NATO obligations one way or another
since about 1985, and with respect to NS 2, since 2018. They do not seem fazed - maybe a
Green win would change that. If the USA-Ukraine get (more) belligerent, Germany might be less
likely to insist on Ukraine gas transit after 2024.
The Russian government owns a majority of Gazprom. As majority owner they can be said to
control the company and with that control comes an inescapable political dimension.
For the purposes of this discussion: the Russian government has biggest stake in the
financial success of Nord Stream 2. That "success" depends on gas sold, not simply the
completion of NS2 construction.
So go ahead and say whatever you want around all your networked devices, but don't be
surprised if bad things start happening.
I received another "Our Terms Have Changed" email from a Big Tech quasi-monopoly, and for a
change I actually read this one. It was a revelation on multiple fronts. I'm reprinting it here
for your reading pleasure:
We wanted to let you know that we recently updated our Conditions of Use.
What hasn't changed:
Your use constitutes your agreement to our Conditions of Use.
We own all the content you create on our platform, devices and networks, and are free to
monetize it by any means we choose.
We own all the data we collect on you, your devices, purchases, social networks, views,
associations, beliefs and illicit viewing, your location data, who you are in proximity to,
and whatever data the networked devices in your home, vehicles and workplaces collect.
We have the unrestricted right to ban you and all your content, shadow-ban you and all
your content, i.e., generate the illusion that your content is freely, publicly available,
and erase your digital presence entirely such that you cease to exist except as a corporeal
body.
What has changed:
If we detect you have positive views on anti-trust enforcement, we may report you as a
"person of interest / potential domestic extremist" to the National Security Agency and other
federal agencies.
Rather than respond to all disputes algorithmically, we have established a Star Chamber of
our most biased, fanatical employees to adjudicate customer/user disputes in which the
customer/user refuses to accept the algorithmic mediation.
If a customer/user attempts to contact any enforcement agency regarding our algorithmic
mediation or Star Chamber adjudication, we reserve the unrestricted rights to:
a. Prepare voodoo dolls representing the user and stick pins into the doll while
chanting curses.
b. Hack the targeted user's accounts and blame it on Russian or Ukrainian hackers.
c. Rendition the user to a corrupt kleptocracy in which we retain undue influence, i.e.,
the United States.
Left unsaid, of course, is the potential for "accidents" to happen to anyone publicly
promoting anti-trust enforcement of Big Tech quasi-monopolies. Once totalitarianism has been
privatized , there are no rules that can't be ignored or broken by those behind the curtain .
So go ahead and say whatever you want around all your networked devices, but don't be surprised
if bad things start happening.
Editor's note: this is satire. If I disappear, then you'll know who has no sense of irony or
humor.
Two years ago, Wall Street banks were on their way out of a long-term relationship with the
oil industry. Now, with oil prices over $70 for the first time in three years, big bond buyers
are snapping up oil bonds once again.
Only there is a condition this time.
The Wall Street Journal's Joe Wallace and Collin Eaton
wrote this week that Wall Street was buying bonds from non-investment-grade U.S. energy
companies, which took advantage of record low interest rates to raise some $34 billion in fresh
debt in the first half of the year.
That's twice as much as the industry raised over the same period last year. But investors
don't want borrowers to use the cash to drill new wells. They want them to use it to pay off
older debt and shore up balance sheets.
It makes sense, really, although it is a marked departure from how banks normally react to
oil industry crises. The 2014 oil price collapse, in hindsight, may have been the last "normal"
crisis. Oil prices fell, funding dried up, supply tightened, prices went up, banks were willing
to lend again, and producers poured the money into boosting production.
Since then, however, the energy transition push has really gathered pace and banks have more
than one reason to not be so willing to lend to the oil industry. With the world's biggest
asset managers setting up net-zero groups to effectively force their institutional clients to
reduce their carbon footprint and with the Biden administration throwing its weight behind the
push for lower emissions, banks really have little choice but to follow the current. Their own
shareholders are increasingly concerned about the environment, too.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/aQXqMVeoOPs
Yet business is business, and nowhere is this clearer than in banks' dealings with the oil
industry. Bank shareholders may be concerned about the environment, but they certainly would be
more concerned about their dividend""and part of that comes from income made from lending to
oil. And the higher oil prices go, the more willing banks will be to lend to those that produce
it.
When they were unwilling to lend to the oil industry, other lenders
stepped in . Last year, alternative investment firms scooped up hundreds of millions in oil
industry debt from banks that were cutting their exposure to the politically incorrect
industry. Hedge funds and other so-called shadow lenders don't seem to have banks' misgivings
about profiting from oil and gas.
Now banks have mellowed towards oil somewhat, but it is an interesting twist that the
current loans come with the condition of not boosting output. Again, it makes sense. For years,
the shareholders of U.S. shale oil companies have been complaining about poor returns as the
companies put everything into output growth. Now it's payback time, and shareholders want their
returns.
So do lenders, apparently.
Per the WSJ article, this year, bond buyers "want to see companies repairing their
balance sheets and delivering to creditors and shareholders rather than plowing money into new
wells."
NEW YORK (Reuters) - In this manic era of meme stocks, cryptocurrencies and real-estate
bidding wars, studying the history of financial markets might seem a little dry and
old-fashioned.
Except to Jeremy Grantham.
The chairman of the board of famed asset managers GMO is a certified bubble-ologist,
fascinated by how and why bubbles emerge. Grantham studies classic ones like 1929, but - now in
his eighties - he has also lived through (and called) numerous modern booms and busts,
including the dot-com wreckage in 2000, the bull market peak in 2008 and the bear market low in
2009.
In case you did not know where this is headed: He says we are in a bubble right now.
In January Grantham wrote an investor letter, "Waiting For the Last Dance," about an
inflating bubble that "could well be the most important event of your investing lives."
Six months later, the stock market is starting to show some cracks. Grantham spoke with
Reuters about this moment of market history.
Q: When your letter of warning came out, what was the response like?
A: I got a lot of pushback. Waves of Bitcoin freaks attacked me in every way possible. They
said my ears were too big, and that I needed to be locked up in an old-folks home.
Q: So if we were already in a bubble then, where do things stand right now?
A: Bubbles are unbelievably easy to see; it's knowing when the bust will come that is
trickier. You see it when the markets are on the front pages instead of the financial
pages, when the news is full of stories of people getting cheated, when new coins are being
created every month. The scale of these things is so much bigger than in 1929 or in 2000.
Q: What is your take on equity valuations now?
A: Looking at most measures, the market is more expensive than in 2000, which was more
expensive than anything that preceded it.
My favorite metric is price-to-sales: What you find is that even the cheapest parts of the
market are way more expensive than in 2000.
Q: What might bring an end to this bubble?
A: Markets peak when you are as happy as you can get, and a near-perfect economy is
extrapolated into the indefinite future. But around the corner are lurking serious issues like
interest rates, inflation, labor and commodity prices. All of those are beginning to look less
optimistic than they did just a week or two ago.
Q: How long until a bust?
A: A bust might take a few more months, and, in fact, I hope it does, because it will give
us the opportunity to warn more people. The probabilities are that this will go into the fall:
The stimulus, the economic recovery, and vaccinations have all allowed this thing to go on a
few months longer than I would have initially guessed.
What pricks the bubble could be a virus problem, it could be an inflation problem, or it
could be the most important category of all, which is everything else that is unexpected. One
of 20 different things that you haven't even thought of will come out of the woodwork, and you
had no idea it was even there.
Q: What might a bust look like?
A: There will be an enormous negative wealth effect, broader than it has ever been, compared
to any other previous bubble breaking. It's the first time we have bubbled in so many different
areas "" interest rates, stocks, housing, non-energy commodities. On the way up, it gave us all
a positive wealth effect, and on the way down it will retract, painfully.
Q: Are there any asset classes which are relatively attractive?
A: You could always own cash, or you could do what the institutions do, which is buy heavily
into the asset classes that are least bad. The least overpriced are value stocks and emerging
markets. Those are the two arbitrages. With value and emerging, you should make some positive
return over the next 10 years.
Q: It is difficult to be bearish right now?
A: Not for me, because I don't have career risk anymore. But every big company has lots of
risk: They facilitate a bubble until it bursts, and then they change their tune as fast as they
can, and make money on the downside.
But this bubble is the real thing, and everyone can see it. It's as obvious as the nose on
your face.
Walmart Brings Automation To Regional Distribution Centers BY TYLER DURDEN SUNDAY,
JUL 18, 2021 - 09:00 PM
The progressive press had a field day with "woke" Walmart highly
publicized February decision to hikes wages for 425,000 workers to an average above $15 an
hour. We doubt the obvious follow up - the ongoing stealthy replacement of many of its minimum
wage workers with machines - will get the same amount of airtime.
As Chain Store
Age reports , Walmart is applying artificial intelligence to the palletizing of products in
its regional distribution centers. I.e., it is replacing thousands of workers with robots.
Since 2017, the discount giant has worked with Symbotic to optimize an automated technology
solution to sort, store, retrieve and pack freight onto pallets in its Brooksville, Fla.,
distribution center. Under Walmart's existing system, product arrives at one of its RDCs and is
either cross-docked or warehoused, while being moved or stored manually. When it's time for the
product to go to a store, a 53-foot trailer is manually packed for transit. After the truck
arrives at a store, associates unload it manually and place the items in the appropriate
places.
Leveraging the Symbiotic solution, a complex algorithm determines how to store cases like
puzzle pieces using high-speed mobile robots that operate with a precision that speeds the
intake process and increases the accuracy of freight being stored for future orders. By using
dense modular storage, the solution also expands building capacity.
In addition, by using palletizing robotics to organize and optimize freight, the Symbiotic
solution creates custom store- and aisle-ready pallets.
Why is Walmart doing this? Simple: According to CSA, "Walmart expects to save time, limit
out-of-stocks and increasing the speed of stocking and unloading." More importantly, the
company hopes to further cut expenses and remove even more unskilled labor from its supply
chain.
This solution follows tests of similar automated warehouse solutions at a Walmart
consolidation center in Colton, Calif., and perishable grocery distribution center in Shafter,
Calif.
Walmart plans to implement this technology in 25 of its 42 RDCs.
"Though very few Walmart customers will ever see into our warehouses, they'll still be able
to witness an industry-leading change, each time they find a product on shelves," said Joe
Metzger, executive VP of supply chain operations at Walmart U.S. "There may be no way to solve
all the complexities of a global supply chain, but we plan to keep changing the game as we use
technology to transform the way we work and lead our business into the future."
We have owned rigs. We could never keep an operator around long enough to make it
worthwhile. We had a double drum and a single drum. Mud pump. Power swivel. Power tongs on
both. Testing truck. The whole enchilada.
We sold them all to a man who had worked for someone else and then went out on his own. We
gave him a good deal, and he did a lot of work for us. He still does work for us, but he can't
find help that will stay.
We also owned a tank truck. Sold it also. It is currently parked, the man we sold it to
cannot find a driver. He is a one horse tank truck driver. He turns down work all the time. We
had to shut down a lease we haul water on for a few days when he got COVID. Thankfully he
recovered.
All of us around here just cannot quite believe what is going on with the oilfield labor
force. It is a perfect storm.
Meanwhile, most recently we paid $5.63 per foot for 2 3/8" steel tubing, which was under $3
a year ago. We priced a 115 fiberglass tank for $6,800, would have been $3,900 a year ago.
We had a couple wells down for a few weeks because we could neither get new nor rewound
motors for them.
The man who owns the backhoes, trackhoes and cranes that does contract work for us is in his
70's and has great grandkids. He works in the field daily beside his son and grandson.
One of the last rig hands we had broke into our shop last winter. He got out of jail after a
few weeks and immediately got a job in a local factory. Hope he stays clean. He was a good hand
when he was, and had learned to operate a single drum also.
The prosecutor in our county announced the first six months of 2021 that 162 felony cases
had been filed in our small county, that in 2019 the total for the year was 204 felonies, and
that 33 of the 34 jail inmates were addicted to meth.
We do have one pumper now under 50. The rest are from 51 to 63. REPLYINGRAHAMMARK7 IGNORED07/20/2021 at 1:34
am
How much land do you have left? At one well per section how many can you drill and how long
it takes? That's when your business wraps up. REPLYRASPUTIN IGNORED07/20/2021 at 2:40
am
Holy Moly SS
I guess the days of vertical doing things in house are gone. That labor mess is unreal.
However, here in nowhere USA it is hard to find good help but you can usually find help. I was
so surprised at some of the job turnover even during peak covid when some businesses were
restricted and some essential. How are people living that have no jobs? Over the years I hired
relatives that never got it, didn't stay sober and didn't see the long term upside. Maybe it's
all about today for the younger generation.
Over the past year and a half I've been following your posts including labor issues. Were
they so dreadful before covid and helicopter money? It might appear to the uninformed that
training rig help. pumpers and the like is easy, but it's not. One small oops for man is one
huge oops for you.
Perhaps, as we move away from the false narrative that you must have a college degree to get
a good or high paying job, things will improve in the trades and the oilfield.
About 20 years ago I was visiting with a substantial independent stimulation company that
was having labor issues. The head honcho lamented that they had already poached all of the
young guys that grew up on farms and knew machinery, getting up early and how to work. Having
known a few guys and what they earned they most likely didn't point their kids at basket
weaving degrees.
Sure wish I had an answer for you. Personally, I'm shrinking down to a few wells close to
the house/shop/yard, one of which I could walk to for daily exercise. However, I'll run my
equipment myself as long as possible.
The number of basically "homeless" people living here in my part of very rural USA is
startling. People aren't generally sleeping in the parks. They have duffle bags and backpacks
and crash place to place.
We have the tremendous labor shortage, yet the public defender and conflicts public defender
have over 400 clients combined. This in a county of a little less than 20K people. That right
there is the labor force for a decent sized factory around here.
To qualify for the PD you must have income below 125% of federal poverty guidelines, which
is very low. During the height of COVID, nothing got done with their cases because the PD's
couldn't get ahold of them. Few have cell phones that are permanent (track phones) and few have
permanent addresses. The jail is full so there aren't a lot of warrants being issued for the
lower level crimes. So people haven't been showing up for their court cases for months/ over a
year. Our county is going to send close to 100 people to prison this year, almost all for meth
delivery. This is the situation all over rural USA. People who live here and aren't in the
court system are oblivious to it until they get broken into or robbed (or have an addicted
relative, which many do).
The primary reason for the labor shortage here is a combination of young people moving to
larger towns/cities, a very large percentage of the working age population being addicted to
meth (which is now being cut with heroin, fentanyl, etc) and the significant benefits that have
been paid to not work. I hate to think of how many billions of borrowed money stimulus our
future generations are now indebted with that went directly into the pockets of the foreign
drug cartels.
As for the oilfield, add to that the hard work, not the greatest pay in the world at the
bottom end (rig hands) the need to find people who can work unsupervised outdoors, and the
young people being told the industry is dead and a job in that field will soon be gone.
Finally, a ton of "old timers" simply retired during COVID.
Our country has no idea how dependent we are on labor from Mexico and Central America that
keeps us alive. The only farm workers are Hispanic. However, most don't want to work in the
oilfield either, it seems. We just harvested green beans, and all the crew were Hispanic. The
same will be the case here shortly as we harvest watermelons and cabbage. If Trump were
successful and closed the borders and sent everyone back, we would starve.
The largest oil company here shut in everything it owned when oil went negative.
Unfortunately for them they laid off a lot of people. Many of their wells are still idle.
Maybe we are an outlier. But I doubt it. A decent amount people at the lower end of the
labor force seem to have decided they aren't going to work, and offering a lot more $$ won't
bring them back. Maybe they will come back when the government benefits end.
Even the prisons can't find employees. They pay $70K+ plus great benefits. Mentally
difficult work though. Also, can't have a criminal record and cannot use drugs, even pot.
Keep in mind a large percentage of the USA population now smokes or ingests pot. That
doesn't work well in a lot of industries where sobriety is mandatory.
The gas station I fill up at is offering a $300 signing bonus which is paid after 30 days of
no unexcused absences. $13 and hour to start at the cash register. They can't find people to
take that.
I'm rambling now, and I'll stop.
Surely there are some shale basin people reading this. Could any of you comment about
whether there is a labor shortage in your shale basin? If there isn't, maybe we could persuade
a few of them to come to our neck of the woods and work on the simple, shallow wells. Not a lot
of traveling, no weekends unless you pump, and work is daytime only. KANSAS OIL IGNORED07/20/2021 at 9:10
am
Shallow Sand –
I echo all of your sentiments. We are a small operator in Kansas, producing about 300
bbl/day in 13 various counties. We have approximately 50-60 bbl/day offline pushing 3 weeks.
We're talking 8/8ths approximately $75,000 in revenue. Pre-Covid you could count on getting a
pulling unit sometimes next day if you had a mechanical failure. Now it's 3-4 weeks. $20/hour
for green rig hands evidently isn't enough to move the needle, whether it's because the work is
too difficult, or it's easier to keep cashing the government checks. And by my count we are in
a similar situation with oil field pumpers. We have 13 of them. 2 are 50s, and the rest are all
over 60. I'm in my early 40s and my field superintendent is 56. He loves to work and will
probably do so until he's 70-75. When he checks out will probably be when I check out.
REPLYSHALLOW SAND IGNORED07/20/2021 at 9:55
am
Kansas Oil.
Great to hear from you.
Thanks for confirming what we are experiencing.
The big question is whether this is also going on in the shale basins, primarily Permian. If
it is, don't see how USA production grows much.
I drive across Kansas on both I 70 and the South Route through Wichita to the OK panhandle
quite a bit. Always keep my eyes open for whether pumping units are moving or not.
I worry about whether the huge feed lots, hog facilities and packing plants out there can
find enough help. People have no clue how much of the USA is fed from the TX, OK panhandles on
up through Western KS and NE.
Two years ago, Wall Street banks were on their way out of a long-term relationship with the
oil industry. Now, with oil prices over $70 for the first time in three years, big bond buyers
are snapping up oil bonds once again.
Only there is a condition this time.
The Wall Street Journal's Joe Wallace and Collin Eaton
wrote this week that Wall Street was buying bonds from non-investment-grade U.S. energy
companies, which took advantage of record low interest rates to raise some $34 billion in fresh
debt in the first half of the year.
That's twice as much as the industry raised over the same period last year. But investors
don't want borrowers to use the cash to drill new wells. They want them to use it to pay off
older debt and shore up balance sheets.
It makes sense, really, although it is a marked departure from how banks normally react to
oil industry crises. The 2014 oil price collapse, in hindsight, may have been the last "normal"
crisis. Oil prices fell, funding dried up, supply tightened, prices went up, banks were willing
to lend again, and producers poured the money into boosting production.
Since then, however, the energy transition push has really gathered pace and banks have more
than one reason to not be so willing to lend to the oil industry. With the world's biggest
asset managers setting up net-zero groups to effectively force their institutional clients to
reduce their carbon footprint and with the Biden administration throwing its weight behind the
push for lower emissions, banks really have little choice but to follow the current. Their own
shareholders are increasingly concerned about the environment, too.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/aQXqMVeoOPs
Yet business is business, and nowhere is this clearer than in banks' dealings with the oil
industry. Bank shareholders may be concerned about the environment, but they certainly would be
more concerned about their dividend""and part of that comes from income made from lending to
oil. And the higher oil prices go, the more willing banks will be to lend to those that produce
it.
When they were unwilling to lend to the oil industry, other lenders
stepped in . Last year, alternative investment firms scooped up hundreds of millions in oil
industry debt from banks that were cutting their exposure to the politically incorrect
industry. Hedge funds and other so-called shadow lenders don't seem to have banks' misgivings
about profiting from oil and gas.
Now banks have mellowed towards oil somewhat, but it is an interesting twist that the
current loans come with the condition of not boosting output. Again, it makes sense. For years,
the shareholders of U.S. shale oil companies have been complaining about poor returns as the
companies put everything into output growth. Now it's payback time, and shareholders want their
returns.
So do lenders, apparently.
Per the WSJ article, this year, bond buyers "want to see companies repairing their
balance sheets and delivering to creditors and shareholders rather than plowing money into new
wells."
NEW YORK (Reuters) - In this manic era of meme stocks, cryptocurrencies and real-estate
bidding wars, studying the history of financial markets might seem a little dry and
old-fashioned.
Except to Jeremy Grantham.
The chairman of the board of famed asset managers GMO is a certified bubble-ologist,
fascinated by how and why bubbles emerge. Grantham studies classic ones like 1929, but - now in
his eighties - he has also lived through (and called) numerous modern booms and busts,
including the dot-com wreckage in 2000, the bull market peak in 2008 and the bear market low in
2009.
In case you did not know where this is headed: He says we are in a bubble right now.
In January Grantham wrote an investor letter, "Waiting For the Last Dance," about an
inflating bubble that "could well be the most important event of your investing lives."
Six months later, the stock market is starting to show some cracks. Grantham spoke with
Reuters about this moment of market history.
Q: When your letter of warning came out, what was the response like?
A: I got a lot of pushback. Waves of Bitcoin freaks attacked me in every way possible. They
said my ears were too big, and that I needed to be locked up in an old-folks home.
Q: So if we were already in a bubble then, where do things stand right now?
A: Bubbles are unbelievably easy to see; it's knowing when the bust will come that is
trickier. You see it when the markets are on the front pages instead of the financial
pages, when the news is full of stories of people getting cheated, when new coins are being
created every month. The scale of these things is so much bigger than in 1929 or in 2000.
Q: What is your take on equity valuations now?
A: Looking at most measures, the market is more expensive than in 2000, which was more
expensive than anything that preceded it.
My favorite metric is price-to-sales: What you find is that even the cheapest parts of the
market are way more expensive than in 2000.
Q: What might bring an end to this bubble?
A: Markets peak when you are as happy as you can get, and a near-perfect economy is
extrapolated into the indefinite future. But around the corner are lurking serious issues like
interest rates, inflation, labor and commodity prices. All of those are beginning to look less
optimistic than they did just a week or two ago.
Q: How long until a bust?
A: A bust might take a few more months, and, in fact, I hope it does, because it will give
us the opportunity to warn more people. The probabilities are that this will go into the fall:
The stimulus, the economic recovery, and vaccinations have all allowed this thing to go on a
few months longer than I would have initially guessed.
What pricks the bubble could be a virus problem, it could be an inflation problem, or it
could be the most important category of all, which is everything else that is unexpected. One
of 20 different things that you haven't even thought of will come out of the woodwork, and you
had no idea it was even there.
Q: What might a bust look like?
A: There will be an enormous negative wealth effect, broader than it has ever been, compared
to any other previous bubble breaking. It's the first time we have bubbled in so many different
areas "" interest rates, stocks, housing, non-energy commodities. On the way up, it gave us all
a positive wealth effect, and on the way down it will retract, painfully.
Q: Are there any asset classes which are relatively attractive?
A: You could always own cash, or you could do what the institutions do, which is buy heavily
into the asset classes that are least bad. The least overpriced are value stocks and emerging
markets. Those are the two arbitrages. With value and emerging, you should make some positive
return over the next 10 years.
Q: It is difficult to be bearish right now?
A: Not for me, because I don't have career risk anymore. But every big company has lots of
risk: They facilitate a bubble until it bursts, and then they change their tune as fast as they
can, and make money on the downside.
But this bubble is the real thing, and everyone can see it. It's as obvious as the nose on
your face.
Walmart Brings Automation To Regional Distribution Centers BY TYLER DURDEN SUNDAY,
JUL 18, 2021 - 09:00 PM
The progressive press had a field day with "woke" Walmart highly
publicized February decision to hikes wages for 425,000 workers to an average above $15 an
hour. We doubt the obvious follow up - the ongoing stealthy replacement of many of its minimum
wage workers with machines - will get the same amount of airtime.
As Chain Store
Age reports , Walmart is applying artificial intelligence to the palletizing of products in
its regional distribution centers. I.e., it is replacing thousands of workers with robots.
Since 2017, the discount giant has worked with Symbotic to optimize an automated technology
solution to sort, store, retrieve and pack freight onto pallets in its Brooksville, Fla.,
distribution center. Under Walmart's existing system, product arrives at one of its RDCs and is
either cross-docked or warehoused, while being moved or stored manually. When it's time for the
product to go to a store, a 53-foot trailer is manually packed for transit. After the truck
arrives at a store, associates unload it manually and place the items in the appropriate
places.
Leveraging the Symbiotic solution, a complex algorithm determines how to store cases like
puzzle pieces using high-speed mobile robots that operate with a precision that speeds the
intake process and increases the accuracy of freight being stored for future orders. By using
dense modular storage, the solution also expands building capacity.
In addition, by using palletizing robotics to organize and optimize freight, the Symbiotic
solution creates custom store- and aisle-ready pallets.
Why is Walmart doing this? Simple: According to CSA, "Walmart expects to save time, limit
out-of-stocks and increasing the speed of stocking and unloading." More importantly, the
company hopes to further cut expenses and remove even more unskilled labor from its supply
chain.
This solution follows tests of similar automated warehouse solutions at a Walmart
consolidation center in Colton, Calif., and perishable grocery distribution center in Shafter,
Calif.
Walmart plans to implement this technology in 25 of its 42 RDCs.
"Though very few Walmart customers will ever see into our warehouses, they'll still be able
to witness an industry-leading change, each time they find a product on shelves," said Joe
Metzger, executive VP of supply chain operations at Walmart U.S. "There may be no way to solve
all the complexities of a global supply chain, but we plan to keep changing the game as we use
technology to transform the way we work and lead our business into the future."
Unfortunately,
seniors often miss tax-saving opportunities that are available to them. Don't let that happen
to you!
For new retirees, it's more important than ever to take full advantage of every tax break
available. That's especially true if you're on a fixed income. After all, you have to stretch
out your retirement savings to cover the rest of your life. But holding on to your money during
retirement is easier said than done. That's why retirees really need to pay close attention to
their tax situation.
Unfortunately, though, seniors often miss valuable tax-saving opportunities . In many cases,
it's simply because they just don't know about them. Don't let that happen to you -- check out
these often-overlooked tax breaks for retirees . You could save a bundle!
When you turn 65, the IRS offers you a gift in the form of a larger standard
deduction . For example, a single 64-year-old taxpayer can claim a standard deduction of
$12,550 on his or her 2021 tax return (it was $12,400 for 2020 returns). But a single
65-year-old taxpayer will get a $14,250 standard deduction in 2021 ($14,050 in 2020).
The extra $1,700 will make it more likely that you'll take the standard deduction rather
than itemize. And, if you do claim the standard deduction, the additional amount will save you
over $400 if you're in the 24%
income tax bracket .
Couples in which one or both spouses are age 65 or older also get bigger standard deductions
than younger taxpayers. If only one spouse is 65 or older, the extra amount for 2021 is $1,350
– $2,700 if both spouses are 65 or older. Be sure to take advantage of your age!
For new retirees, it's more important than ever to take full advantage of every tax break
available. That's especially true if you're on a fixed income. After all, you have to stretch
out your retirement savings to cover the rest of your life. But holding on to your money during
retirement is easier said than done. That's why retirees really need to pay close attention to
their tax situation.
Unfortunately, though, seniors often miss valuable tax-saving opportunities . In many cases,
it's simply because they just don't know about them. Don't let that happen to you -- check out
these often-overlooked tax breaks for retirees . You could save a bundle!
When you turn 65, the IRS offers you a gift in the form of a larger standard
deduction . For example, a single 64-year-old taxpayer can claim a standard deduction of
$12,550 on his or her 2021 tax return (it was $12,400 for 2020 returns). But a single
65-year-old taxpayer will get a $14,250 standard deduction in 2021 ($14,050 in 2020).
The extra $1,700 will make it more likely that you'll take the standard deduction rather
than itemize. And, if you do claim the standard deduction, the additional amount will save you
over $400 if you're in the 24%
income tax bracket .
Couples in which one or both spouses are age 65 or older also get bigger standard deductions
than younger taxpayers. If only one spouse is 65 or older, the extra amount for 2021 is $1,350
– $2,700 if both spouses are 65 or older. Be sure to take advantage of your age!
The rules are clear: To qualify for tax-free profit from the sale of a home, the home must
be your principal residence and you must have owned and lived in it for at least two of the
five years leading up to the sale. But there is a way to capture tax-free profit from the sale
of a former vacation home.
Let's say you sell the family homestead and cash in on the break that makes up to $250,000
in profit tax-free ($500,000 if you're married and file jointly). You then move into a vacation
home you've owned for 25 years. As long as you make that house your principal residence for at
least two years, part of the profit on the sale will be tax-free.
Basically, the $250,000/$500,00 exclusion doesn't apply to any profit that is allocable to
the time after 2008 that a home is not used as your principal residence. For example, assume
you bought a vacation home in 2001, convert it to your principal residence in 2015 and sell it
in 2021. The post-2008 vacation-home use is seven of the 20 years you owned the property. So,
35% (7 ÷ 20) of the profit would be taxable at capital gains rates; the other 65% would
qualify for the $250,000/$500,000 exclusion.
"... Here are the other ominous signs of froth in the IPO market. ..."
"... Tech leads the way: It dominates the IPO market again, just as in 1999. ..."
"... Frothy first-day gains: The average first-day pop for IPOs in the second quarter was 42% ..."
"... Historically high valuations ..."
"... Retail investors in the mix ..."
"... "I think it says more about general liquidity than it does about where the stock market is going next," says Kevin Landis of the Firsthand Technology Opportunities TEFQX, -3.24% , referring to the IPO frenzy. "There is so much money sloshing around. The capital markets look like the rich guy from out of town who just got off the cruise ship, and we are all coming out of the woodwork to sell him stuff," he says. ..."
"... "Things are going up simply because of liquidity, which means eventually there will be a top," says Landis. "But not necessarily an impending top right around the corner." Landis is worth listening to because his fund outperforms his technology category by 9.6 percentage points annualized over the five years, according to Morningstar. ..."
"... Market calls are always a matter of what intelligence spies call "the mosaic." Each bit of information is a piece of an overall mosaic. While the IPO market froth is disturbing, you should consider this cautionary signal as just one among many. ..."
A frothy market for initial public offerings suggests stocks are overvalued
Oatly, which produces oat milk products, went public in May. (Photo Illustration by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
I hear more money managers say it's starting to feel like 1999" the bubble year followed by an epic market crash.
They may be on to something.
The initial public offering (IPO) market now shows the froth that foreshadows big stock market corrections.
Consider these troubling signals from the IPO market.
1. Ominous volume:
Second-quarter IPO proceeds were the biggest since" get this" the fourth quarter of 1999. The huge
tech selloff that scarred a generation of investors started in March 2000 and then spread to the entire market.
Some details: A total of 115 IPOs raised $40.7 billion in the second quarter. That follows a busy first quarter when 100 IPOs
raised $39.1 billion. Both quarters saw the largest amount of capital raised since the fourth quarter of 1999, when IPOs raised
$46.5 billion. These numbers come from the IPO experts at Renaissance Capital, which manages the IPO exchange traded fund, Renaissance
IPO ETF
IPO,
-3.43%
.
Of course, adjusted for inflation, the 2021 numbers shrink relative to the fourth quarter of 1999. But this doesn't get us off
the hook. The 2021 IPO figures, above, exclude the $12.2 billion and $87 billion raised by special purpose acquisition companies
(SPACs) in the second and first quarters.
This spike in IPO volume is troubling for a simple reason. Investment bankers and companies know the most opportune time to sell
stock is around market highs. They bring companies public at their convenience, not ours. This tells us they may be selling a
top now.
Here are the other ominous signs of froth in the IPO market.
2.
Tech leads the way:
It dominates the IPO market again, just as in 1999.
The tech sector raised the majority
of second-quarter proceeds and posted its busiest quarter in at least two decades with 42 IPOs, says Renaissance Capital. This
included the quarter's largest IPO, DiDi Global
DIDI,
+1.61%
,
the Chinese ride-hailing app. The large U.S.-based tech names were Applovin
APP,
-5.54%
in app software, the robotics company UiPath
PATH,
-3.68%
,
and the payments platform Marqeta
MQ,
-4.93%
.
3. We can expect more of the same:
A robust IPO pipeline sets the stage for a booming third quarter, says Renaissance
Capital. The IPO pipeline has over a hundred companies. Tech dominates.
4.
Frothy first-day gains:
The average first-day pop for IPOs in the second quarter was 42%
. That's well above
the range of 31%-37% for the prior four quarters.
5.
Historically high valuations
:
Typically, tech companies have come public with enterprise-value-(EV)-to-sales
ratios of around 10. Now many are coming public with EV/sales ratios in the 20-30 range or more, points out Avery Spears, an IPO
analyst at Renaissance Capital. For example, the cybersecurity company SentinelOne
S,
-6.14%
came public with an EV/sales ratio of 81, says Spears.
6.
Retail investors in the mix
:
They're big participants in IPO trading" often driving IPOs up by crazy amounts
in first-day trading. "In the second quarter there were a lot of small deals with low floats and absolutely insane trading, popping
well over 100% and in one case over 1,000%," says Spears. Pop Culture Group
CPOP,
-12.38%
rose over 400% on its first day of trading, and E-Home Household Service
EJH,
-3.67%
advanced 1,100%. "This demonstrates presence of retail investors in the market," she says. Both
names have since fallen.
Keep in mind that the 2000 selloff was not the only one foreshadowed by IPO froth. The selloffs during mid-2015 to early 2016
and the second half 2018 were both preceded by high-water marks for IPO deal volume.
IPO-froth pushback
"It's different this time" are maybe the most dangerous words in investing. But market experts say several factors suggest the
robust IPO market isn't such a negative signal.
First, decent quality companies are coming public. "Because companies stay private longer, you are seeing far more mature companies
coming public," says Todd Skacan, equity capital markets manager at T. Rowe Price. These aren't like the speculative Internet
companies of 1999. "It would be more of a signal of froth if more borderline companies were coming public like in the fourth quarter
of 1999," he says.
We saw some of this with the SPACs, says Skacan, but the SPAC craze has cooled off. Second-quarter SPAC issuance fell 79% compared
to the first quarter, muted by "investor fatigue and regulatory scrutiny," says a Renaissance Capital report on the IPO market.
In the second quarter, 63 SPACs raised $12.2 billion, compared to the 298 SPACs that raised $87 billion in the first quarter.
Next, the type of company coming public might also calm fears. Alongside all the tech names, there are many industrial and consumer-facing
companies" not the kinds of businesses that indicate froth. The latter category includes public national brands like Mister Car
Wash
MCW,
-1.82%
and Krispy Kreme
DNUT,
-2.16%
,
and the high-growth oat milk brand Oatly
OTLY,
-2.79%
.
Third, IPOs are only floating 10%-15% of their overall value, and many post-IPO valuations are not that much higher than valuations
implied by pre-IPO capital raises. That's different, compared to 1999. "It is not like they are selling a high number of shares
at inflated prices," says Skacan. This makes sense, because companies that are more mature when they do an IPO don't need as much
money.
Liquidity flood
"I think it says more about general liquidity than it does about where the stock market is going next," says Kevin Landis
of the Firsthand Technology Opportunities
TEFQX,
-3.24%
,
referring to the IPO frenzy. "There is so much money sloshing around. The capital markets look like the rich guy from out of town
who just got off the cruise ship, and we are all coming out of the woodwork to sell him stuff," he says.
"Things are going up simply because of liquidity, which means eventually there will be a top," says Landis. "But not necessarily
an impending top right around the corner." Landis is worth listening to because his fund outperforms his technology category by
9.6 percentage points annualized over the five years, according to Morningstar.
The bottom line
Market calls are always a matter of what intelligence spies call "the mosaic." Each bit of information is a piece of an overall
mosaic. While the IPO market froth is disturbing, you should consider this cautionary signal as just one among many.
Michael Brush is a columnist for MarketWatch. At the time of publication, he owned APP. Brush has suggested APP in his stock
newsletter,
Brush Up on Stocks
. Follow him on Twitter @mbrushstocks,
There's nothing more beautiful to a professional investor than a negative correlation between stocks and bonds. When stocks have
a bad month, bonds have a good month, and vice versa. Since their zigs and zags offset each other, the value of the combined portfolio
is less volatile. The customers are pleased. And that's how it's been for most of the last two decades.
But for almost a year now, Bloomberg market reporters have been detecting anxiety from the pros that the era of negative correlation
may be over or ending, replaced by an era of positive correlation in which stock and bond prices move together, amplifying volatility
instead of dampening it. "Bonds Have Never Been So Useless as a Hedge to Stocks Since 1999," read the headline on one article this
May.
Yet hope springs eternal. The headline on a July 7 article was, "Bonds Are Hinting They'll Hedge Stocks Again as Growth Bets Ease."
In the big picture and over long periods, it's obvious and necessary that stock and bond returns are positively correlated. After
all, they're competing investments. Each generates a stream of income: dividends for (most) stocks, coupon payments for bonds. If
stocks get very expensive, investors will shift money into bonds as a cheaper alternative until that rebalancing makes bonds more
or less equally expensive. Likewise, when one of the two asset classes gets cheap it will tend to drag down the other.
When the pros talk about negative correlation they're referring to shorter periods""say, a month or two--over which stocks and
bonds can indeed move in different directions. Lately two giant money managers have produced explanations for why stocks and bonds
move apart or together. They're worth understanding even if your assets under management are in the thousands rather than billions
or trillions.
Bridgewater Associates, the world's biggest hedge fund, based in Westport, Conn., says that how stocks and bonds play with
each other has to do with economic conditions and policy. "There will naturally be times when they're negatively correlated and naturally
be times when they're positively correlated, and those come from the underlying environment itself," senior portfolio strategist,
Jeff Gardner says in an edited transcript of a recent in-house interview.
According to Gardner, inflation was the most important factor in the markets for decades""both when it rose in the 1960s and 1970s
and when it fell in the 1980s and 1990s. Inflation affects stocks and bonds similarly, although it's worse for bonds with their fixed
payments than for stocks. That's why correlation was positive during that long period.
For the past 20 years or so, inflation has been so low and steady that it's been a non-factor in the markets. So investors have
paid more attention to economic growth prospects. Strong growth is great for stocks but doesn't do anything for bonds. That, says
Gardner, is the main reason that stocks and bonds have moved in different directions.
PGIM Inc., the main asset management business of insurer Prudential Financial Inc., has $1.5 trillion under management. In a report
issued in May, it puts numbers on the disappointment the pros feel when stocks and bonds start to move in sync. Let's say a portfolio
is 60% stocks and 40% bonds and has a stock-bond correlation of -0.3, which is about average for the last 20 years. Volatility is
around 7%. Now let's say the correlation goes to zero" not positive yet, but not negative anymore, either. To keep volatility from
rising, the portfolio manager would have to reduce the allocation to stocks to around 52%, which would lower the portfolio's returns.
If the stock-bond correlation reached a positive 0.3, then keeping volatility from rising would require reducing the stock allocation
to only 40%, hitting returns even harder.
PGIM's list of factors that affect correlations is longer than Bridgewater's but consistent with it. The report by vice president
Junying Shen and managing director Noah Weisberger says correlations between stocks and bonds tend to be negative when there's sustainable
fiscal policy, independent and rules-based monetary policy, and shifts up or down in the demand side of the economy (consumption).
The correlation is likely to be positive, they say, when there's unsustainable fiscal policy, discretionary monetary policy, monetary-fiscal
policy coordination, and shifts in the supply side of the economy (output).
One last thought: It's a good idea to spread your money between stocks and bonds even if they don't hedge each other. The capital
asset pricing model developed by William Sharpe in the 1960s says everyone should have the same portfolio, consisting of every asset
available, and adjust their risk by how much they borrow. True, not everyone agrees. John Rekenthaler, a vice president for research
at Morningstar Inc., wrote a fun article in 2017 about the different strategies of Sharpe and fellow Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz.
Images removed. See the original for the full version...
Notable quotes:
"... To shed light on this question, let's look at where both asset classes stand relative to their long-term trendlines. It's important to take a long-term perspective because commentators seem overly eager to detect bubbles everywhere they look these days. They (and we) need to be reminded that not every bull market is a bubble, and not every bear market represents the bursting of a bubble. ..."
Which U.S. asset class is more likely in a bubble right now" stocks or housing? More than 80% of traders polled in a
Charles Schwab survey say both.
To shed light on this question, let's look at where both asset classes stand relative to their long-term trendlines. It's important
to take a long-term perspective because commentators seem overly eager to detect bubbles everywhere they look these days. They (and
we) need to be reminded that not every bull market is a bubble, and not every bear market represents the bursting of a bubble.
Why are we so eager to detect bubbles? Will Goetzmann, a finance professor at Yale University, told me that he suspects it traces
to the moral overtone that investors have when they declare something to be forming a bubble. When they do, he said, they're implying
that those who lose big in that bear market will be getting what they deserve.
This column leaves moral judgments out of the equation. I instead am focusing on the most comprehensive data set of U.S. equity
and housing returns that I know. This database, which extends back to the late 1800s, was compiled by Ã'scar Jordà of the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Katharina Knoll of Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt, Dmitry Kuvshinov and Moritz Schularick, both
of the University of Bonn, and Alan M. Taylor of the University of California Davis.
This database is unique in several ways. One big advantage
is that it includes data for both stocks and housing; other databases extend further back in the case of the stock market but don't
include housing. The database also takes rent into account when calculating housing's return. Some prior historical analyses of housing's
return have focused only on price appreciation, which significantly underreports housing's performance.
The chart below plots the returns since 1890 of U.S. stocks and housing. Notice that equities and housing have each produced
largely similar returns over the past 130 years . As recently as the late 1940s, housing was ahead of equities for cumulative
performance since 1890. As recently as the late 1970s the two data series were nearly neck-and-neck. Notice further that housing's
performance has been less volatile than the stock market's, especially since World War II.
For each asset class I calculated an exponential trendline that most closely fit the 130 years' worth of data. The bad news is
that both stocks and housing currently are above their respective trendlines, so if you insist that both assets are in bubbles now
you in fact could find some statistical support.
Of the two, the stock market is further ahead of its long-term trendline than is housing. So if you'd have to pick which of the
two is more likely to decline significantly, you should choose stocks.
Bonds are vulnerable
I've not said anything about bonds, but they are even further ahead of their trendline than either stocks or housing. So from
this long-term perspective they are even more vulnerable than stocks to a big decline.
when the tax rates increase even more, it just encourages automation or DIY (bring your own sheets to avoid paying the cleaning
fee), which just grinds down growth rather than accelerates it.
Notable quotes:
"... Applebee's is now using tablets to allow customers to pay at their tables without summoning a waiter. ..."
Companies see automation and other labor-saving steps as a way to emerge from the health crisis with a permanently smaller
workforce
PHOTO:
JIM THOMPSON/ZUMA PRESS
... ... ...
Economic data show that companies have learned to do more with less over the last 16 months or so. Output nearly
recovered to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2021 -- down just 0.5% from the end of 2019 -- even though U.S.
workers put in 4.3% fewer hours than they did before the health crisis.
... ... ...
Raytheon Technologies
Corp.
RTX
0.08%
,
the biggest U.S. aerospace supplier by sales, laid off 21,000 employees and contractors in 2020 amid a drastic
decline in air travel. Raytheon said in January that efforts to modernize its factories and back-office operations
would boost profit margins and reduce the need to bring back all those jobs. The company said that most if not all
of the 4,500 contract workers who were let go in 2020 wouldn't be called back.
... ... ..
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HLT -0.78% said last week that most of its U.S. properties are adopting "a
flexible housekeeping policy," with daily service available upon request. "Full deep cleanings will be conducted
prior to check-in and on every fifth day for extended stays," it said.
Daily housekeeping will still be free for those who request it...
Unite Here, a union that represents hotel workers, published a report in June estimating that the end of daily
room cleaning could result in an industrywide loss of up to 180,000 jobs...
... ... ...
Restaurants have become rapid adopters of technology during the pandemic as two forces -- labor shortages that are
pushing wages higher and a desire to reduce close contact between customers and employees -- raise the return on such
investments.
...
Applebee's is now using tablets to allow customers to pay at their tables without summoning a
waiter.
The hand-held screens provide a hedge against labor inflation, said John Peyton, CEO of Applebee's
parent
Dine
Brands Global
Inc.
... ... ...
The U.S. tax code encourages investments in automation, particularly after the Trump administration's tax cuts,
said Daron Acemoglu, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies the impact of
automation on workers. Firms pay around 25 cents in taxes for every dollar they pay workers, compared with 5 cents
for every dollar spent on machines because companies can write off capital investments, he said.
A lot of employers were given Covid-aid to keep employees employed and paid in 2020. I
assume somebody has addressed that obligation since it wasn't mentioned.
But, what happens to the unskilled workers whose jobs have been eliminated? Do Raytheon
and Hilton just say "have a nice life on the streets"?
No, they will become our collective burdens.
I am all for technology and progress and better QA/QC and general performance. But the
employers that benefit from this should use part of their gains in stock valuation to keep
"our collective burdens" off our collective backs, rather than pay dividends and bonuses
first.
Maybe reinvest in updated training for those laid off.
No great outcome comes free. BUT, as the article implies, the luxury of having already
laid off the unskilled, likely leaves the employer holding all the cards.
And the wheel keeps turning...
Jeffery Allen
Question! Isn't this antithetical (reduction of employees) to the spirit and purpose of
both monetary and fiscal programs, e.g., PPP loans (fiscal), capital markets funding
facilities (monetary) established last year and current year? Employers are to retain
employees. Gee, what a farce. Does anyone really care?
Philip Hilmes
Some of this makes sense and some would happen anyway without the pandemic. I don't need my room
cleaned every day, but sometimes I want it. The wait staff in restaurants is another matter. Losing
wait staff makes for a pretty bad experience. I hate having to order on my phone. I feel like I might
as well be home ordering food through Grubhub or something. It's impersonal, more painful than telling
someone, doesn't allow for you to be checked on if you need anything, doesn't provide information you
don't get from a menu, etc. It really diminishes the value of going out to eat without wait staff.
al snow
OK I been reading all the comments I only have a WSJ access as the rate was a great deal.
Hotel/Motel started making the bed but not changing the sheets every day for many years I am fine as
long as they offer trash take out and towel/paper every day
and do not forget to tip .
clive boulton
Recruiters re-post hard to fill job listings onto multiple job boards. I don't believe the reported
job openings resemble are real. Divide by 3 at least.
Stocks are near all-time highs, and though U.S. markets opened slightly lower on Thursday, it's much easier to find bulls than
bears these days.
But a technical indicator showing itself in five high-profile stocks and two funds suggests that a market correction is
coming, according to strategist
Michael
Kramer of Mott Capital Management
, in our
call
of the day
.
The relative strength index, or RSI, measures the speed and change of recent price movements and is one of the most
renowned technical signals. It allows investors to evaluate whether a security is overbought or oversold -- i.e. overvalued or
undervalued. A reading of 70 or above is considered overbought, while 30 and below is oversold.
A look back at 2018 is enough to tell investors why they should watch this indicator, according to Kramer, who noted on
January 29, 2018 that high RSIs for some of the biggest names signalled that the stock market was ready to fall. "Things
got really ugly after that through February 8," he said.
In those 10 days early in 2018, Dow industrials
DJIA,
+0.15%
tumbled
near 9%, the S&P 500
SPX,
-0.33%
plunged
more than 10%, and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.70%
fell
near 10%.
Now, "the same thing is emerging," Kramer said, "with the biggest stocks all reaching very overbought reading."
By the end of Wednesday, Apple had an RSI of more than 80, with Amazon at 70, Microsoft at 76, and Google-owner Alphabet at
73 and showing a rising pattern, Kramer said. He noted that Nvidia's RSI was in the process of breaking a near-two month
rise up to 83.
Ark Innovation ETF's RSI was sitting at 76, while the QQQ was above 75. "When the QQQ RSI gets this high, the outcomes are
not good most of the time, including January 2018," Kramer said.
No. Not true and badly misleading. Remaining EIA PDP from the Permian will not generate sufficient net cash flow to self fund
123,000 wells (your estimate) costing nearly $1T, much less do that AND pay down over $100 B of existing debt in the Permian. That's
using EIA PDP estimates; whack those by 30%. It is not possible to drill $9MM wells for a 135% ROI over 15 years and be financially
self-sufficient, service and pay down debt, provide returns to investors and maintain a 100% RRR. The US shale oil model does not
work without credit. $70 "assumptions" do NOT solve the issue of where the money is going to come from for your miracle of abundance
to actually occur. ANCIENTARCHER IGNORED07/05/2021 at 6:01 am
EIA is expecting excess supply in 2022.
Are they smoking some really good stuff to come up with this? I'd like to smoke that too
As I see it, demand will slowly go back up to previous level of 100mmbpd and then resume its slow march upwards. Where is it that
EIA are seeing that extra production from that will lead to oversupply 6-7 months down the line? All I see is that various regions
of the world are slowly declining in production due to a combination of worsening asset quality and a paucity of capex over the last
several years, especially in 2020/21. US Shale, Russia, Offshore, conventional onshore, small members of OPEC and even Saudi"¦ all
are experiencing pressure on production.
OPEC seems to be concerned about the possibility of excess supply next year, probably due to this report by EIA. The Saudis are
especially concerned and therefore are pushing to extend the supply cut to the end of 2022 which UAE is opposing.
So, am I missing a crucial element or are the EIA on to something here?
This medicine prevents many other drugs from getting into the body. If you take other drugs, check with your doctor or pharmacist
to see if you need to take them at some other time than barium suspension.
To prevent constipation or bowel block from barium
suspension, your doctor may have you use a laxative like
milk of magnesia or
lactulose after using barium suspension. Follow what your
doctor has told you.
Drink lots of noncaffeine liquids after using barium suspension unless told to drink less liquid by your doctor.
Some products have sorbitol in them. Very bad health
problems like low blood sugar
, bleeding, and kidney failure have happened
when people who are not able to break down fructose took a product with sorbitol in it. Talk with the doctor.
If you are 65 or older, use barium suspension with care. You could have more side effects.
Tell your doctor if you are pregnant, plan on getting pregnant, or are breast-feeding. You will need to talk about the benefits
and risks to you and the baby.
How is this medicine (Barium Suspension) best taken?
Use barium suspension as ordered by your doctor. Read all information given to you. Follow all instructions closely.
Be sure you know how to take barium suspension. Talk with your doctor if you have questions.
Shake well before use.
Most of the time, barium suspension is taken by mouth. Take as you have been told by your doctor.
Some brands of barium suspension are to be taken with food. Some brands may be taken with or without food. Ask your pharmacist
if you need to take your brand with food.
Some products may be used as an enema. If you are using barium suspension as an enema, it will be given rectally by your doctor.
Cryptos are a collectors item just like fine art. While money has value based on the military jack boot of empire which insures
its value only with its domination of most countries and the violent destruction of any attempt to set up a transparent real money
system exchangable for gold (Libya). A painting by a hot painter is worth 900k because there are a handful of people who will
pay that for it, they're interest in it keeps the value at a certain level. Same with Bitcoin, but that interest is spread out
to millions of people. If they all decide its worthless than it is, but why would they? I think a lot of these evidence free claims
of hacking and ransom wear are made to devalue the currency that the ransom is paid in, it could have easily been paid in dollars
via the internet, as cryptos is basiclly just that: a stand in for the dollar being moved to an account that is a number. Cryptos
in this way provide a window to real capitalism. This to me is natural human evolution toward anarchism and a system of exchange
that is transparent and based on people working together instead of militaristic violence. You can exchange cryptos for gold,
rubles and yaun, so saying that it exist only based on the dollars supremacy is wrong.
What I know about computers and Bitcoin would get lost in a thimble. However, what I've learnt about the US Govt over the years
tells me that this problem wouldn't be happening if the USG hadn't dedicated itself to micro-managing, and dominating the www
- for Top Secret (i.e. bullshit) reasons.
I was appalled when I learnt that the USG had made strong encryption ILLEGAL, and dumbfounded when I first heard about the
PRISM 'co-operative' USG-mandated www surveillance program. Edward Snowden's NSA revellations confirmed that the USG has KILLED
computer security for crappy, feeble-minded reasons.
It's more or less par for the course that the USG blames other entities for its own prying and mischief-making. Were it not
for the USG placing LOW limits on computer security, we would all have access to Pretty Good Privacy and pro-active, timely means
of detecting and defending and/or evading malware.
"They mostly never see the piece, it's kept in climate controlled storage."
This is standard practice. Using "Ports Franches" as in several Swiss towns including Geneva. Perfectly legal as they are not
IN the country (for Tax purposes).
However, this is not really for "drug" cartels but just a way of transferring assets from one rich person to another.
Many ownership deals are made inside the Port Franche itself, without the need to transport the work outside. There is a limitation
on the time a work can be left inside the building, but I believe all that they have to do is drive more or less "round the block"
and re-enter it. I'm a bit hazy about that detail, as I do not have a spare Rembrandt to verify this personally.
****
jsanprox | Jul 12 2021 1:59 utc | 103
A painting by a hot painter is worth 900k because there are a handful of people who will pay that for it, they're interest
in it keeps the value at a certain level.
The primary dealers agree on a common price level for a stated painter. These paintings can even be used as collateral when
borrowing money.
Other painters do not have a "guaranteed" price level but one based on auction values (ie. What the customer is willing to pay.)
The Primary dealers are a very small group who control all the big art fairs and which other dealers are allowed to sell or deal
there -.
There are "rules" about "participation" (not sure about the terminology here), that various dealers will have made between themseves.
ie. There is a split-up of profits following certain agreed parts. Woe unto a dealer that doesn't pay his part. (OK; personal
note here, I once accidently fell foul of the "cartel" because a gallery owner with my works, had not paid "out" on a large sum
that he had made on another artist he was representing. They decided to "get" him.)
****
Ransomware ; Why are people getting all hot and bothered about Corporations paying money in Bitcoin? Happens all the
time.
Another Personal anecdote ; About five years ago I started recieving emails from unknown "people", Real first names,
with an attachement. As normal, these go into trash without being opened (or into a folder I have, called "dodgy spam?) About
20 + of them. Next I recieved one email saying (in French) " I know your little secret, and if you don't want everyone else to
know, pay (about €30) a "Small" sum into the following bitcoin account xxxxx."
In France you can " porter plainte" , ie, denounce and start a legal process against an "unknown person, or persons".
This is to protect yourself, and is run by the Government/police. In my case, never having opened any of the "attachments", I
don't know what they were, probably porn of some sort. IF they had been opened there would have been a suspicion that I was a
"willling" victim. (The first question asked by the Gov. Site was "Have you paid them/it, and by how much". in my case - none)
******
Haven't heard anything since. BUT, Bitcoin was already being used for criminal purposes.
Nobody had to find a super-secret backdoor into my computer. Just buy a data base with working emails - Corporations
use them all the time to send publicity. By looking at the address, and other more or less freely available information, they
can target people, by location, age, etc.
But you only know a Picasso is worth a lot because you can calculate it in USD terms (ultimately: you can also calculate in
any other fiat currency, but, since we live in the USD Standard, we only know a certain amount of fiat currency is worth if we
can convert it to USDs). The USD is still the unit of accountancy and the means of payment even in the art market.
You can never pay your taxes or fill the tank of your car with a Picasso - you would have to sell it for USDs, and use these
USDs to pay for everything you need. Sure, two megarich persons could exchange art between them as some kind of permute, but that
doesn't constitute a societal unity (because billionares don't exist in a vacuum). It is a particularity of society, not society
itself.
The same is true with crypto. And with gold. And with platinum. And with whatever else you want. It is a myth crypto is "fake"
just because it is purely digital: the material specification of the thing doesn't matter for its status of money. Being digital
is the lesser of crypto's problems. Crypto's main problem is the very economic foundations of its existence, which ensure it will
never be money.
And no: subdividing crypto wouldn't solve it - they tried it with gold when capitalism lived through the Gold Standard (when
it was on its death throes) and there's a limit to this. Even if the digital era allowed it, you would then simply have fiat money
system with extra steps and double the brutality, because then the power to issue money would rest with few private individual
hoarders of the crypto with no legal accountability and responsibility; it would be a dystopian "Pirates of the Caribbean" meets
"Mad Max" scenario.
As I often note here, when you push the pendulum to an extreme of wealth and income inequality, it will swing to the opposite
extreme minus a tiny bit of friction.
The depth of America's indoctrination can be measured by the unquestioned assumption that Capital should earn 15% every year,
rain or shine, while workers are fated to lose ground every year, rain or shine. And if wages should ever start ticking upward even
slightly, then the Billionaires' Apologists are unleashed to shout that higher wages means higher inflation, which will kill the
economic "recovery."
Said another way: if wages stagnate so workers lose ground every year as inflation in essentials rises, that's the way it should
be. If wages rise so workers can keep up with inflation, then that will trigger an inflationary death spiral.
That this indoctrination is so widely accepted reveals the success of America's Aristocracy in reshaping the narrative to make
their plundering appear to be "inevitable." But the siphoning of $50 trillion from workers to the Aristocracy, and the Nobility's
control of political power was anything but inevitable: it was engineered by policies that enriched billionaires, the top 0.01% Aristocracy,
and the top 10% who own 90% of America's productive capital.
There are some who blame the current plight of working Americans on structural changes in the underlying economy--on automation,
and especially on globalization. According to this popular narrative, the lower wages of the past 40 years were the unfortunate
but necessary price of keeping American businesses competitive in an increasingly cutthroat global market. But in fact, the $50
trillion transfer of wealth the RAND report documents has occurred entirely within the American economy, not between it and its
trading partners. No, this upward redistribution of income, wealth, and power wasn't inevitable; it was a choice--a direct result
of the trickle-down policies we chose to implement since 1975.
The net result of this four-decade siphoning of wealth/income from workers was recently documented by a Foreign Affairs article:
Monopoly Versus
Democracy :
Ten percent of Americans now control 97 percent of all capital income in the country. Nearly half of the new income generated
since the global financial crisis of 2008 has gone to the wealthiest one percent of U.S. citizens. The richest three Americans
collectively have more wealth than the poorest 160 million Americans.
Now the worm has finally turned, and workers are refusing to accept the Neofeudal dominance of the Aristocracy, not by open revolts
that the State can violently crush but by indirect means. Fed-up Boomers are retiring, fed-up Gen-Xers are cutting their hours, refusing
to go back to the office, starting their own enterprises and Millennials are assembling multiple income streams, building micro-houses,
and leveraging shortages of workers for higher wages.
The techno-fantasy that's Corporate America's fondest dream is automation of all labor: get rid of all human workers and just
manage the robots with loving care. But the reality is robots have limits, as I explain in my book
Will You Be Richer or Poorer? --limits imposed by physics and finance.
And so, weeping inconsolably, Corporate America continues exploiting its workforce with the usual threats: you're powerless because
we can automate your job or offshore it to Lower Slobovia.
Contrast this with the real world: a young man of my acquaintance recently took a job at a Corporate America Big Box outlet. His
wage was $12/hour, and all the power was of course in the hands of Corporate America: he had no power over his schedule, or anything
else.
In the script of the past four decades, Corporate America (while crushing small business and buying the best government money
can buy ) could keep the serfs slaving away for stagnating wages, all in service of maximizing corporate insiders' stock options,
buybacks and soaring profits.
This individual was tipped off to a much better opportunity, and when he gave notice to the Big Box manager, the manager corralled
him for two hours, first offering a $3/hour raise (25%) and then badgering him to stay on as a serf on the Big Box plantation. He
refused.
This is the pure distillation of Corporate America and the Aristocracy: if they'd offered this hard-working individual the 25%
raise after he proved his worth, then maybe he wouldn't have been so motivated to seek better opportunities elsewhere.
At long last, some the $50 trillion plundered from workers is trickling back to the people who actually create the income and
wealth. As a thought experiment, consider an economy in which farmers and workers reaped 15% gains annually like clockwork, and Corporate
America's insiders, financiers and speculators, and Wall Street's parasites all lost 15% of their wealth and income every year like
clockwork.
In other words, imagine the $50 trillion flowing back to those who generated it from those who looted it.
As I often note here, when you push the pendulum to an extreme of wealth and income inequality, it will swing to the opposite
extreme minus a tiny bit of friction. The serfs are quietly slipping away, and the Aristocracy, blinded by hubris and greed, believes
nothing will ever change because, well, their wealth and power is deserved . What they really deserve will manifest in the next four
years as the chairs at the banquet of consequences are shuffled.
... engineered by policies that enriched billionaires ...
90% to 95% of all legislation passed by Congress is special interest i.e. engineered to enrich billionaires.
GreatUncle 8 hours ago
He who makes the rules is always going to win especially when voting is total BS.
HRH of Aquitaine 2.0 7 hours ago
K Street is profitable. Not for the US Tax$lave of course.
alwaysfindasilverlining 7 hours ago
I've never seen a lobbyist get wealthy pandering the poors needs to corrupt politicians.
FoodStampPrez 7 hours ago
"When the preferences of economic elites and the stands of organized interest groups are controlled for, the preferences
of the average American appear to have only a minuscule, near-zero, statistically non-significant impact upon public policy."
Stop caring. Adjust according to their rules. It's the only way to survive.
Retired_Rat 7 hours ago (Edited) remove link
When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a
legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.
Frédéric Bastiat
I am one of the early leavers from the rat race.... Not rich but am happy with a minimal lifestyle if it means I dont have
to work for the 0.1 per cent Man
Instagator 7 hours ago
Finally an article that states 0.1% instead of the 1% , even though 0.001% is actually who is in control. 1% is a doctor
and no they don't control the world. They are controlled by the Medical Industrial Complex.
There are only 50 families that control the world. Wake up people.
GoldmanSax 6 hours ago
The world economic forum is proof that wealthy robber barons are not happy with their profits alone. They are waging a war
on the planet. For this reason alone, a class struggle is inevitable. It is the planet vs the robber barons. . .
SexyJulian 42 minutes ago
The net result of this four-decade siphoning of wealth/income from workers was recently documented by a Foreign Affairs
article:
Monopoly
Versus Democracy :
During a Foreign Affairs event with various experts on stage 8 years ago(maybe 10) discussing current and future destabilizing
political and security events I asked the panel about the increasing income inequality. The crowd appreciated the question.
The panel had crickets. Over the next few years their mag shunned any objective reporting or interpretation of global events
in exchange for pure bullsht. Very similar to how even McNeil Lehrer went into propaganda mode after 9/11.
Merkel is meeting with President Joe Biden on Thursday this week, and said while
she will discuss the issue at the White House, she does not believe the matter will be resolved
at that time.
"I don't know whether the papers will be fully finalized, so to speak. I believe rather
not," Merkel said. "But these will be important talks for developing a common position."
Sanctions imposed against German companies involved in the project by the U.S. were recently
waived, which raised hopes in Berlin that the two countries may soon be able to find an
acceptable agreement on the matter.
For more reporting from the Associated Press, see below.
Washington has long argued that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline carrying natural gas from Russia
to Germany endangers Europe's energy security and harms allies such as Ukraine, which currently
profits from transit fees for Russian gas.
Germany is keen to increase its use of natural gas as it completes the shutdown of its
nuclear power plants next year and phases out the use of heavily polluting coal by 2038.
Merkel's comments to reporters in Berlin came ahead of a meeting with Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has warned that Nord Stream 2 poses a threat to his country's energy
security. Should Russia route all of its gas around Ukraine in the future, the country might be
cut off from the supplies it needs, putting it at further risk of being pressured by
Moscow.
Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and supports separatists in Ukraine's eastern
industrial heartland of Donbas.
Zelenskyy said he was looking for guarantees that Ukraine will remain a transit country for
Russian gas beyond 2024. He also suggested that the gas issue should become part of four-way
talks between his country, Russia, Germany and France on solving the conflict in eastern
Ukraine and that the United States could join those negotiations.
Merkel said she took Ukraine's concerns seriously and that Germany and the European Union would use
their weight in negotiations with Russia to ensure the agreements are extended.
"We have promised this to Ukraine and we will stick to that. I keep my promises and I
believe that is true also for any future German chancellor," she said.
Merkel isn't running for a fifth term in Germany's national election on Sept.
26.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, not
pictured, give statements ahead of talks at the Chancellery in Berlin, Monday, July 12, 2021.
Stefanie Loos/Pool Photo via AP
Keith Speights: Some findings were recently published in Nature magazine that
indicate that the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Moderna vaccines may provide protection for
years.
Many investors are and were hoping for annual recurring revenue from these companies'
vaccines. Brian, how troublesome is this latest data for the prospects for Pfizer, BioNTech,
and Moderna?
Brian Orelli: There's a bit of an extrapolation going on here. The researchers looked at
memory B cells, which tend to provide more long-term protection than, let's say, antibodies.
They looked at those in the lymph nodes and found the cells were there as long as 15 weeks.
Typically, they'd mostly be gone by four to six weeks. So that's the basis of this claim
that it could offer protection for years. If true, that will be a big blow obviously to vaccine
makers, at least for Moderna and BioNTech.
Pfizer would be fine because it's so diversified. It's really hard to make an argument for
the valuations of Moderna and BioNTech right now if these vaccines are one and done over a
couple of years. They really need to have ongoing sales until they can get growth from other
drugs in their pipelines.
Speights: Brian, when I first saw the story, I went to check out to see how the stocks were
performing, and Moderna is up, BioNTech was barely changed, Pfizer barely changed. It seems to
me that investors really aren't making much of this news. Do you think that's the right take at
this point?
Orelli: I think it's still too early to be able to conclude that it's definitely going to
work for years. The other issue is that we're looking at, will those B cells actually protect
against the variants?
If they don't protect against the variants, then it doesn't really matter if you have B
cells in your lymph nodes. If they're not going to protect against the variants then we're
going to have to get a booster shot anyway.
Speights: Right. Obviously, if these vaccines provide immunity for multiple years, these
companies aren't going to make nearly as much money as they expect and a lot of investors
expect. So this is a big story to watch, but like you said, really, really early right now and
too soon to maybe go drawing any conclusions at this point.
The U.S. is producing roughly 2 million barrels a day less than it was before the pandemic.
In the USA shale patch many "sweet spots" are now gone and what remains is less proficableto drill and thus requres higher prices.
In this sense the currentoil price might be not enough to spur additional activity.
Frackers have been forced to rein in spending and
live
within their means
after many investors lost faith in the companies following years of poor returns, lenders reduced their
credit lines and capital markets showed little interest in funding expansive new drilling campaigns.
The result is that shale drillers, which in the past have played the role of the oil world's swing producer by quickly increasing
output to meet demand, are largely standing pat for now, as the reopening of Western economies leads to a resurgence of global
oil
and
gas prices
.
The companies are raking in more cash than ever. Public shale companies that drill primarily for oil collectively generated a
record $4.1 billion in free cash flow in the first quarter of 2021 and are poised to take in almost $15 billion for the year if
prices remain higher, according to consulting firm Rystad Energy.
U.S. shale producers generated more free cash
flow in the first quarter than any time
in the
industry's history, analysts said.
Free
cash flow
Source:
Rystad Energy
billion
2014
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
-12.5
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0
.0
2.5
$5.0
But instead of pumping that money back into drilling as they have historically done, large producers such as
Occidental
Petroleum
Corp.
OXY
+2.09%
and
Ovintiv
Inc.,
the
company formerly known as Encana Corp., have said they plan to
focus
on reducing debt
, keeping U.S. output flat. Other sizable shale drillers such as
Pioneer
Natural Resources
Co.
PXD
+0.66%
and
Devon
Energy
Corp.
DVN
+3.40%
are
socking away money to return to investors in the form of variable dividends, one of the enticements they want to use to lure more
investors back.
"We're producing all this free cash flow, but it's not going out to investors yet," said Scott Sheffield, chief executive of
Pioneer, noting that many companies are focusing on debt before they return cash to investors. "There's no reason for them to buy
into this sector at this point in time."
... ... ...
In the heyday of the shale boom, publicly traded oil producers typically reinvested more than 100% of the cash flow they made
from operations back into drilling campaigns. Now they are using about half of the income they generate on new drilling and are
only growing output slightly, if at all.
... ... ...
Shale companies had about $148.6 billion in debt coming into the year, according to energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, and
much of the cash they are collecting is going toward that debt pile. Securing new capital is increasingly difficult for many.
Many large U.S. banks have cut their energy lending, and some European ones such as
Deutsche
Bank
AG
and
Société
Générale
SA
SCGLY
5.48%
have
exited fossil fuel financing altogether...
Callon said it would cut its 2021 capital expenditures to $430 million, a 12% reduction from its 2020 budget. In 2019, it spent
$515 million. As a result, the company said it would produce about 90,000 barrels of oil and gas a day in 2021, down from more
than 101,000 barrels a day in 2020. Callon said it is focused on reducing its roughly $3 billion in debt. The company declined to
comment.
Many frackers made bad bets early this year, hedging their production with oil in the forties and low fifties -
especially Pioneer and Devon. This article, for some reason, fails to mention that fact and it's impact on their
current production.
PAUL HUNT
After 38years in O&G E&P I filtered out of the industry due to changing industry. The loss of expertise and technology
in the energy industry over the last 5 years has been huge. USA has given the energy industry to China. Look for
overall energy prices to triple in less than 10 years.
DAVID LAWRENCE
What is left out in this article are the returns of the 600lb gorilla of frackers in the room.
XOM alone generated almost $7 billion in free cash flow last quarter. With oil prices where they are that figure is
likely to rise to $10 billion next quarter. The company has only $53 billion in debt outstanding having already pared
down $6 billion during the pandemic.
They are going to gobble up even more weaker little guys shortly.
Peter Sullivan
I don't see XOM significantly increasing production in US shale anytime soon. They are focusing CAPEX on deepwater
assets that present a better ROI than shale. Who would of thought we have reached a time where it is less risky for a
US based company to drill in a small South American country than within our own borders?
DAVID LAWRENCE
XOM CAPEX is greatly reduced (1/2) in 2021 across the board. This is because they spent nearly $20 billion in 2020 using
piles of borrowed money that so many junior analysts obsessed over.. The plan is to pay that pile down with the
windfall those investments are generating.
XOM is far from a pure play fracker and have always developed the largest offshore assets of any company and Guyana is a
hot prospect!
Edward Cotterell
The oil market has always been boom and bust. When the pandemic hit people stopped driving and the oil market went
bust. Prices fell and drillers went bankrupt. Now the economy is reviving, people are driving again and oil is
booming. To those who think otherwise, get a grip. The price of gasoline today is about where it was in 2018 and 2019
pre-pandemic. You know, when Trump was president.
This article points out a longer term change in the market. The hype over fracking is over. The lenders want their
principal back plus interest and they are not taking exaggerations from drillers any more. So oil prices may have to go
a bit higher until the lenders are satisfied that they will get their money. Then they will lend to drillers and
fracking will crank up.
Trash that 12 mpg pickup. Get a vehicle that gets better mileage. Some hybrids get over 50 miles a gallon. Electrics
get the energy equivalent of 100 miles a gallon.
Ben Griffith
How is the electricity produced ? Coal, oil, natural gas produced by fracking, nuclear, hydroelectric dam, harnessing
the hot air of Climate Change speech ?
ROBERT STUPP
Many don't realize how many older, experienced energy professionals took retirement over the last few years. Similar to
the 1980's energy bloodbath, it will take a while to establish teams able to stabilize the companies, let alone grow
them from survival mode. You can't turn on production like your kitchen faucet.
Jerome Abernathy
Fracking wells deplete so fast that the capex expenditures needed to maintain and grow production result in a low ROI
for the industry. Worse yet, given the volatility of oil prices and the precarious state of their balance sheets,
frackers are unattractive borrowers. The industry needs a new, creative financing model.
Matthew Oatway
An interesting article, but the authors should have acknowledged (a) the impact of consolidation in the sector on
production discipline and (b) the fact that many shale producers have a large portion of their production hedged at
lower crude prices. Both factors point to a more restrained return to production growth that we have seen in the past.
Update (2130ET): Tucker Carlson responded to today's 'unmasking' - namely an Axios report
which accuses him of trying to set up an interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"I'm an American citizen, I can interview whoever I want - and plan to," said the Fox News
host.
Presented without further comment, along with Carlson's sit-down with journalist Glenn
Greenwald, who broke the Edward Snowden revelations about domestic spying and other illicit
activities conducted by the US government.
Last week, Fox News host Tucker Carlson said in a bombshell broadcast that an NSA
whistleblower had approached him with evidence that the National Security Agency
has been spying on his communications , with the intent to leak his emails to the press and
'take this show off the air.'
Today, Carlson told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo that the emails have in fact been leaked
to journalists - at least one of whom has contacted him for what we presume is an upcoming
article on their contents.
"I was in Washington for a funeral last week and ran into someone I know well, who said '
I have a message for you ,' and then proceeded to repeat back to me details from emails and
texts that I sent, and had told no one else about. So it was verified. And the person said
'the NSA has this,' and that was proven by the person reading back the contents of the email,
'and they're going to use it against you.'
To be blunt with you, it was something I would have never said in public if it was wrong,
or illegal, or immoral. They don't actually have anything on me, but they do have my emails.
So I knew they were spying on me, and again, to be totally blunt with you - as a defensive
move, I thought 'I better say this out loud.'"
"Then, yesterday, I learned that - and this is going to come out soon - that the NSA
leaked the contents of my email to journalists in an effort to discredit me. I know, because
I got a call from one of them who said 'this is what your email was about.'
So, it is not in any way a figment of my imagination. It's confirmed. It's true. They
aren't allowed to spy on American citizens - they are. I think more ominously, they're using
the information they gather to put leverage and to threaten opposition journalists, people
who criticize the Biden administration. It's happening to me right now..."
" This is the stuff of banana republics and third-world countries ," replied Bartiromo.
What recovery ? What booming economy if they layoff people? Look like stagnation of the
US economy continues unabated...
Initial unemployment claims, a proxy for layoffs, rose by 2,000 the week ended July 3, from
a pandemic low the prior week, to a
seasonally adjusted 373,000 , the Labor Department said Thursday.
... ... ...
...some unemployed workers say they are still struggling to find jobs. Marcellus Rowe of
Dunwoody, Ga., said he has been unable to find a job that pays a salary near the roughly
$50,000 he made working for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority. Mr. Rowe, 29
years old, lost that job in November 2019, before the pandemic, but was able to stay on
unemployment benefits because of the federal extensions. Georgia cut off those benefits late
last month.
Mr. Rowe said he has applied for more than 100 jobs, including security-guard and
customer-service roles. He said the few employers who have responded to him said he doesn't
have the experience needed for the positions. Mr. Rowe, a Black man, added that he thinks his
race is a reason he has been passed over for some jobs.
He said he is reluctant to take a minimum-wage job because $7.25 an hour wouldn't be enough
to pay his rent and other bills. He sought housing assistance from his county when benefits
expired.
"The job market isn't looking so great," he said. "I'm looking for suitable jobs, but it's
not happening here in Georgia."
Note to Goldman: you're a bank. Stick to banky-stuff. Leave the fear **** and lies to
the professionals in the .gov and MSM.
p3scobar 7 hours ago
Goldman is the government... sooo.....
espirit 9 hours ago
If Goldman can give medical advice, so can I.
A Lunatic 9 hours ago remove link
Turning off the TV will neutralize the Delta Variant.
rag_house 9 hours ago
Just like 'Climate Change' you know it's contrived when the bankers start doing
'science.'
liberty2day 9 hours ago
when did they not?
rag_house 8 hours ago
Bankers aren't scientists. They simply dream up fake things they want to convince people
of and bribe people to try to make it seem real.
Enraged 9 hours ago remove link
Goldman Sachs Charged in Foreign Bribery Case and Agrees to Pay Over $2.9 Billion
The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Goldman Sachs (Malaysia) have admitted to conspiring to
violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) in connection with a scheme to pay over $1
billion in bribes to Malaysian and Abu Dhabi officials to obtain lucrative business for
Goldman Sachs, including its role in underwriting approximately $6.5 billion in three bond
deals for 1Malaysia Development Bhd. (1MDB), for which the bank earned hundreds of millions
in fees.
bond prices have nothing to do with recovery [sic]
stock prices have nothing to do with growth, except growth of the money supply
Kreditanstalt 3 hours ago
"...the price of a beer or a McDonalds in 10-years time will be exactly the same as it
is today. (Which it won't.)"
But the type who buy US government bonds don't care about the price of burgers. They
only plan to flip the thing back to the next Greater Fool...or THE FED
Henry Simons and Irving Fisher supported the Chicago Plan to take away the bankers
ability to create money.
"Simons envisioned banks that would have a choice of two types of holdings: long-term
bonds and cash. Simultaneously, they would hold increased reserves, up to 100%. Simons saw
this as beneficial in that its ultimate consequences would be the prevention of
"bank-financed inflation of securities and real estate" through the leveraged creation of
secondary forms of money."
Bankers do need to ensure the money they lend out gets paid back to balance their
books.
Banking requires prudent lending.
If someone can't repay a loan, they need to repossess that asset and sell it to recoup
that money.
If they use bank loans to inflate asset prices they get into a world of trouble when
those asset prices collapse.
As the real estate and stock market collapsed the banks became insolvent as their assets
didn't cover their liabilities.
They could no longer repossess and sell those assets to cover the outstanding loans and
they do need to get the money they lend out back again to balance their books.
The banks become insolvent and collapsed, along with the US economy.
When banks have been lending to inflate asset prices the financial system is in a
precarious state and can easily collapse.
Cont ......
Sound of the Suburbs 2 hours ago
That was the 1920s.
What was the ponzi scheme of inflated asset prices that collapsed in Japan in 1991?
Japanese real estate.
They avoided a Great Depression by saving the banks.
They killed growth for the next 30 years by leaving the debt in place.
Japan could study the Great Depression to avoid this fate.
What was the ponzi scheme of inflated asset prices that collapsed in 2008?
"It's nearly $14 trillion pyramid of super leveraged toxic assets was built on the back
of $1.4 trillion of US sub-prime loans, and dispersed throughout the world" All the
Presidents Bankers, Nomi Prins.
We avoided a Great Depression by saving the banks.
We left Western economies struggling by leaving the debt in place, just like Japan.
It's not as bad as Japan as we didn't let asset prices crash in the West, but it is this
problem has made our economies so sluggish since 2008.
We, in turn, seem to have learnt something from Japan, as they did let asset prices
crash.
The banking system and the markets are still closely coupled.
Any significant fall in asset prices will feed back into the banking system.
We are trapped, and the only way to keep things from collapsing is to keep pumping in
more and more liquidity.
It's a choice
Let the assets bubbles collapse, and watch this feed back into the financial
system.
Keep the whole thing afloat, but make things worse in the long run as the bubbles
just get bigger and bigger.
We've gone for option two.
That's why the FED get so jittery when the markets start to fall.
During the coronavirus lockdowns there was no way the markets could be allowed to
reflect what was going on in the real economy.
The banking system would go down.
Sound of the Suburbs 1 hour ago remove link
They learnt from the mistakes of the 1920s and put regulations in place to ensure this
didn't happen again.
Financial stability arrived in the Keynesian era and was locked into the regulations of
the time.
"This Time is Different" by Reinhart and Rogoff has a graph showing the same thing
(Figure 13.1 - The proportion of countries with banking crises, 1900-2008).
Neoclassical economics came back and so did the financial crises.
The neoliberals removed the regulations that created financial stability in the
Keynesian era and put independent central banks in charge of financial stability.
Why does it go so wrong?
Richard Vague had noticed real estate lending balloon from 5 trillion to 10 trillion
from 2001 – 2007 and knew there was going to be a financial crisis.
Richard Vague has looked at the data for financial crises going back 200 years and found
the cause was nearly always runaway bank lending.
We put central bankers in charge of financial stability, but they use an economics that
ignores the main cause of financial crises, private debt.
Most of the problems are coming from private debt.
The technocrats use an economics that ignores private debt.
The poor old technocrats never really stood a chance.
But wait: wasn't this recent rise in wages in real terms being propagandized as a new boom
for the working class in the USA by the MSM until some days ago?
As
Peter Hitchens noted recently "the most bitterly funny story of the week is that a defector
from North Korea thinks that even her homeland is 'not as nuts' as the indoctrination now
forced on Western students."
One of Yeonmi Park's initial shocks upon starting classes at Colombia University was to be
met with a frown after revealing to a staff member that she enjoyed reading Jane Austen. "Did
you know," Ms. Park was sternly admonished, "that those writers had a colonial mind-set? They
were racists and bigots and are subconsciously brainwashing you."
But after encountering the new requirement for the use of gender-neutral pronouns, Yeonmi
concluded: "Even North Korea is not this nuts North Korea was pretty crazy, but not this
crazy." Devastatingly honest, but not exactly a compliment to what once might have been the
land of her dreams.
Sadly, Hitchens reports that her previous experience served Yeonmi well to adapt to her new
situation: "She came to fear that making a fuss would affect her grades and her degree.
Eventually, she learned to keep quiet, as people do when they try to live under intolerant
regimes, and let the drivel wash over her."
Eastern European readers will unfailingly understand what it is that Hitchens meant to
say.
And in the drive-through lane at Checkers near Atlanta, requests for Big Buford burgers and
Mother Cruncher chicken sandwiches may be fielded not by a cashier in a headset, but by a
voice-recognition algorithm.
An increase in automation, especially in service industries, may prove to be an economic
legacy of the pandemic. Businesses from factories to fast-food outlets to hotels turned to
technology last year to keep operations running amid social distancing requirements and
contagion fears. Now the outbreak is ebbing in the United States, but the difficulty in hiring
workers -- at least at the wages that employers are used to paying -- is providing new momentum
for automation.
Technological investments that were made in response to the crisis may contribute to a
post-pandemic productivity boom, allowing for higher wages and faster growth. But some
economists say the latest wave of automation could eliminate jobs and erode bargaining power,
particularly for the lowest-paid workers, in a lasting way.
"Once a job is automated, it's pretty hard to turn back," said Casey Warman, an economist at
Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia who has studied automation in the pandemic .
https://www.dianomi.com/smartads.epl?id=3533
The trend toward automation predates the pandemic, but it has accelerated at what is proving
to be a critical moment. The rapid reopening of the economy has led to a surge in demand for
waiters, hotel maids, retail sales clerks and other workers in service industries that had cut
their staffs. At the same time, government benefits have allowed many people to be selective in
the jobs they take. Together, those forces have given low-wage workers a rare moment of
leverage , leading to higher pay
, more generous benefits and other perks.
Automation threatens to tip the advantage back toward employers, potentially eroding those
gains. A
working paper published by the International Monetary Fund this year predicted that
pandemic-induced automation would increase inequality in coming years, not just in the United
States but around the world.
"Six months ago, all these workers were essential," said Marc Perrone, president of the
United Food and Commercial Workers, a union representing grocery workers. "Everyone was calling
them heroes. Now, they're trying to figure out how to get rid of them."
Checkers, like many fast-food restaurants, experienced a jump in sales when the pandemic
shut down most in-person dining. But finding workers to meet that demand proved difficult -- so
much so that Shana Gonzales, a Checkers franchisee in the Atlanta area, found herself back
behind the cash register three decades after she started working part time at Taco Bell while
in high school.
"We really felt like there has to be another solution," she said.
So Ms. Gonzales contacted Valyant AI, a Colorado-based start-up that makes voice recognition
systems for restaurants. In December, after weeks of setup and testing, Valyant's technology
began taking orders at one of Ms. Gonzales's drive-through lanes. Now customers are greeted by
an automated voice designed to understand their orders -- including modifications and special
requests -- suggest add-ons like fries or a shake, and feed the information directly to the
kitchen and the cashier.
The rollout has been successful enough that Ms. Gonzales is getting ready to expand the
system to her three other restaurants.
"We'll look back and say why didn't we do this sooner," she said.
The push toward automation goes far beyond the restaurant sector. Hotels,
retailers ,
manufacturers and other businesses have all accelerated technological investments. In a
survey of nearly 300 global companies by the World Economic Forum last year, 43 percent of
businesses said they expected to reduce their work forces through new uses of
technology.
Some economists see the increased investment as encouraging. For much of the past two
decades, the U.S. economy has struggled with weak productivity growth, leaving workers and
stockholders to compete over their share of the income -- a game that workers tended to lose.
Automation may harm specific workers, but if it makes the economy more productive, that could
be good for workers as a whole, said Katy George, a senior partner at McKinsey, the consulting
firm.
She cited the example of a client in manufacturing who had been pushing his company for
years to embrace augmented-reality technology in its factories. The pandemic finally helped him
win the battle: With air travel off limits, the technology was the only way to bring in an
expert to help troubleshoot issues at a remote plant.
"For the first time, we're seeing that these technologies are both increasing productivity,
lowering cost, but they're also increasing flexibility," she said. "We're starting to see real
momentum building, which is great news for the world, frankly."
Other economists are less sanguine. Daron Acemoglu of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology said that many of the technological investments had just replaced human labor
without adding much to overall productivity.
In a
recent working paper , Professor Acemoglu and a colleague concluded that "a significant
portion of the rise in U.S. wage inequality over the last four decades has been driven by
automation" -- and he said that trend had almost certainly accelerated in the pandemic.
"If we automated less, we would not actually have generated that much less output but we
would have had a very different trajectory for inequality," Professor Acemoglu said.
Ms. Gonzales, the Checkers franchisee, isn't looking to cut jobs. She said she would hire 30
people if she could find them. And she has raised hourly pay to about $10 for entry-level
workers, from about $9 before the pandemic. Technology, she said, is easing pressure on workers
and speeding up service when restaurants are chronically understaffed.
"Our approach is, this is an assistant for you," she said. "This allows our employee to
really focus" on customers.
Ms. Gonzales acknowledged she could fully staff her restaurants if she offered $14 to $15 an
hour to attract workers. But doing so, she said, would force her to raise prices so much that
she would lose sales -- and automation allows her to take another course.
Rob Carpenter, Valyant's chief executive, noted that at most restaurants, taking
drive-through orders is only part of an employee's responsibilities. Automating that task
doesn't eliminate a job; it makes the job more manageable.
"We're not talking about automating an entire position," he said. "It's just one task within
the restaurant, and it's gnarly, one of the least desirable tasks."
But technology doesn't have to take over all aspects of a job to leave workers worse off. If
automation allows a restaurant that used to require 10 employees a shift to operate with eight
or nine, that will mean fewer jobs in the long run. And even in the short term, the technology
could erode workers' bargaining power.
"Often you displace enough of the tasks in an occupation and suddenly that occupation is no
more," Professor Acemoglu said. "It might kick me out of a job, or if I keep my job I'll get
lower wages."
At some businesses, automation is already affecting the number and type of jobs available.
Meltwich, a restaurant chain that started in Canada and is expanding into the United States,
has embraced a range of technologies to cut back on labor costs. Its grills no longer require
someone to flip burgers -- they grill both sides at once, and need little more than the press
of a button.
"You can pull a less-skilled worker in and have them adapt to our system much easier," said
Ryan Hillis, a Meltwich vice president. "It certainly widens the scope of who you can have
behind that grill."
With more advanced kitchen equipment, software that allows online orders to flow directly to
the restaurant and other technological advances, Meltwich needs only two to three workers on a
shift, rather than three or four, Mr. Hillis said.
Such changes, multiplied across thousands of businesses in dozens of industries, could
significantly change workers' prospects. Professor Warman, the Canadian economist, said
technologies developed for one purpose tend to spread to similar tasks, which could make it
hard for workers harmed by automation to shift to another occupation or industry.
"If a whole sector of labor is hit, then where do those workers go?" Professor Warman said.
Women, and to a lesser degree people of color, are likely to be disproportionately affected, he
added.
The grocery business has long been a source of steady, often unionized jobs for people
without a college degree. But technology is changing the sector. Self-checkout lanes have
reduced the number of cashiers; many stores have simple robots to patrol aisles for spills and
check inventory; and warehouses have become increasingly automated. Kroger in April opened a
375,000-square-foot warehouse with more than 1,000 robots that bag groceries for delivery
customers. The company is even experimenting with delivering groceries by drone.
Other companies in the industry are doing the same. Jennifer Brogan, a spokeswoman for Stop
& Shop, a grocery chain based in New England, said that technology allowed the company to
better serve customers -- and that it was a competitive necessity.
"Competitors and other players in the retail space are developing technologies and
partnerships to reduce their costs and offer improved service and value for customers," she
said. "Stop & Shop needs to do the same."
In 2011, Patrice Thomas took a part-time job in the deli at a Stop & Shop in Norwich,
Conn. A decade later, he manages the store's prepared foods department, earning around $40,000
a year.
Mr. Thomas, 32, said that he wasn't concerned about being replaced by a robot anytime soon,
and that he welcomed technologies making him more productive -- like more powerful ovens for
rotisserie chickens and blast chillers that quickly cool items that must be stored cold.
But he worries about other technologies -- like automated meat slicers -- that seem to
enable grocers to rely on less experienced, lower-paid workers and make it harder to build a
career in the industry.
"The business model we seem to be following is we're pushing toward automation and we're not
investing equally in the worker," he said. "Today it's, 'We want to get these robots in here to
replace you because we feel like you're overpaid and we can get this kid in there and all he
has to do is push this button.'"
As of July 2, 2021 out of 4456 total deaths attributed to vaccination (of them 1890 after
vaccination with Pfizer), it looks like there were at least 36 death of people aged less then 30
years after vaccination with Pfizer vaccine (out of 61 total). Around 136 millions were fully
vaccinated,.
Other sources list higher figure (6113)
CDC- 6,113 DEAD Following COVID-19 Injections ("Besides the 6,113 deaths reported, there are
5,172 permanent disabilities, 6,435 life threatening events, and 51,558 emergency room visits."
)so my method of extracting those data from VAERS database might be wrong or not all death are
reported to VAERS.
Another 5 young people were crippled but survived (67 total).
Each year, more than 165 million Americans get the flu shot. There were 85 reported
deaths following influenza vaccination in 2017; 119 deaths in 2018; and 203 deaths in
2019
Between mid-December 2020 and April 23, 2021, at which point between 95 million and 100
million Americans had received their COVID-19 shots, there were 3,544 reported deaths
following COVID vaccination, or about 30 per day
In just four months, the COVID-19 vaccines have killed more people than all available
vaccines combined from mid-1997 until the end of 2013 -- a period of 15.5 years
As of April 23, 2021, VAERS had also received 12,618 reports of serious adverse events.
In total, 118,902 adverse event reports had been filed
In the European Union, the EudraVigilance system had as of April 17, 2021, received
330,218 injury reports after vaccination with one of the four available COVID vaccines,
including 7,766 deaths
In a May 5, 2021, Fox News report, Tucker Carlson asked the question no one is really
allowed to ask: "How many Americans have died after taking the COVID vaccine?"
1
Then there's not selling Syria the latest S#00 system to help keep Israel out of Syrian
skies. That tells me he's using Syria for personal / State gain and that is where he's wrong.
That's what makes him just another politician.
I totally get it, there are things that are puzzling to those of us in the audience,
watching the moves from afar.
An advanced S-300 or S-400 system could paint every F-16 as it took off from Israel. This
would be a red line for Israel and would bring in Uncle Shmuel.
Syria (and by extension Russia) has been allowing Israel to overfly her territory and bomb
Hezbollah installations.
It's puzzling – why would you allow a foreign power to bomb your territory, especially
if you have S-300's. The answer must be that Syria and Russia are holding back on purpose for
reasons only known to them. I can speculate, in that they don't want to give away military
capability unless the war goes hot.
Think about the situation now, as opposed to the 90's. Russia's military has been
modernized; Military physical fitness is up by 30% (better nutrition?); Foreign exchange is in
good shape; the economy is modernizing; food production is up – so Russia is no longer
food insecure; oil can be extracted at prices that Saudi cannot compete with; the Artic route
is opening up; national economy is more diversified thanks to the western sanctions; Yamal LNG
will be fueling Asia; Nordstream will be fueling Europe.
Banks have started to cut their exposure to the U.S. shale patch, seeing more than 100
producers and oilfield services firms go bust last year and feeling the environmental, social,
and governance (ESG) pressure to reduce credits to fossil fuels. While traditional lenders are
cutting their losses and de-risking energy loan portfolios, alternative capital providers are
stepping up to scoop up U.S. energy debt at a discount and take part in debt or equity
transactions that could give them returns sooner than a loan would for a bank.
Since the oil price crash in 2020 and the downturn in the U.S. shale industry, banks have
been wary of their exposure to the sector. The commodity price slump last year dramatically cut
the value of the assets of oil and gas firms, against which they have traditionally obtained
loans from banks.
Running for the Exit
Lenders slashed the amounts of reserve-based loans to the U.S. shale firms in the middle
of last year.
But it is not only purely financial considerations that are driving reduced bank exposure
to the oil and gas industry. ESG lending and aligning loan portfolios to the Paris Agreement
goals are now more prominent than ever.
For example, asset manager Schroders, which holds many bonds in the banking sector, is
engaging with banks to understand their fossil fuel exposure.
"Banks that are highly exposed to the fossil fuel industry face significant financial,
regulatory and reputational risks as a result of the transition to a low-carbon economy,"
Schroders said, explaining its rationale to identify the exposure of the banks to oil, gas, and
coal.
Increased pressure from the ESG universe, coupled with years of poor returns of U.S.
shale firms, have prompted several major transactions in which banks have sold energy debt to
hedge funds and private equity firms.
Hancock Whitney, for example, agreed last year to sell $497 million worth of energy loans
to certain funds and accounts managed by alternative investment provider Oaktree Capital
Management. Hancock Whitney expected to receive $257.5 million from the sale of the
reserve-based loans (RBL), midstream, and non-drilling service credits.
Hancock Whitney's main reason to sell the energy loans was to minimize the risks to its
loan portfolio.
"The primary objective of this sale is to continue de-risking our loan portfolio by
accelerating the disposition of assets that have been impacted by ongoing issues within the
energy industry, and have now been further complicated by COVID-19," Hancock Whitney's
President and CEO John M. Hairston said.
At the end of 2020, Bank of Montreal decided it would wind down its non-Canadian
investment and corporate banking energy business.
Most recently, ABN AMRO announced last week it would sell a $1.5 billion portfolio of
energy loans to funds managed by Oaktree Capital Management and affiliates of Sixth Street
Partners. The portfolio consists of loans to around 75 companies active in the North American
energy markets.
With this sale, ABN AMRO is withdrawing from oil and gas related lending in North America
as part of a process to wind down its non-core activities and significantly reducing the
non-core loan book.
"... For now, loose monetary and fiscal policies will continue to fuel asset and credit bubbles, propelling a slow-motion train wreck. The warning signs are already apparent in today's high price-to-earnings ratios SPX , low equity risk premiums, inflated housing and tech assets COMP , and the irrational exuberance surrounding special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), the crypto sector BTCUSD, , high-yield corporate debt , collateralized loan obligations, private equity, meme stocks AMC, and runaway retail day trading. ..."
"... But meanwhile, the same loose policies that are feeding asset bubbles will continue to drive consumer price inflation, creating the conditions for stagflation whenever the next negative supply shocks arrive. Such shocks could follow from renewed protectionism; demographic aging in advanced and emerging economies; immigration restrictions in advanced economies; the reshoring of manufacturing to high-cost regions; or the balkanization of global supply chains. ..."
"... More broadly, the Sino-American decoupling threatens to fragment the global economy at a time when climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic are pushing national governments toward deeper self-reliance. ..."
"... Making matters worse, central banks have effectively lost their independence, because they have been given little choice but to monetize massive fiscal deficits to forestall a debt crisis. With both public and private debts having soared, they are in a debt trap. Central banks will be damned if they do and damned if they don't, and many governments will be semi-insolvent and thus unable to bail out banks, corporations, and households. The doom loop of sovereigns and banks in the eurozone after the global financial crisis will be repeated world-wide ..."
"... When former Fed Chair Paul Volcker hiked rates to tackle inflation in 1980-82, the result was a severe double-dip recession in the United States and a debt crisis and lost decade for Latin America. But now that global debt ratios are almost three times higher than in the early 1970s, any anti-inflationary policy would lead to a depression, rather than a severe recession. The question is not if but when. ..."
Roubini warns: After 'the Minsky Moment' crashes overheated speculative markets, 'the
Volcker Moment' will will arrive to crash the debt-burdened global economy
( Project Syndicate ) -- In
April, I
warned that today's extremely loose monetary and fiscal policies, when combined with a
number of negative supply shocks, could result in 1970s-style stagflation (high inflation
alongside a recession). In fact, the risk today is even bigger than it was then.
After all, debt ratios in advanced economies and most emerging markets were much lower in
the 1970s, which is why stagflation has not been associated with debt crises historically. If
anything, unexpected inflation in the 1970s wiped out the real value of nominal debts at fixed
rates, thus reducing many advanced economies' public-debt burdens.
The warning signs are already apparent in today's high price-to-earnings ratios, low
equity risk premiums, inflated housing and tech assets, and the irrational exuberance
surrounding special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), the crypto sector, high-yield
corporate debt, collateralized loan obligations, private equity, meme stocks, and runaway
retail day trading.
Conversely, during the 2007-08 financial crisis, high debt ratios (private and public)
caused a severe debt crisis -- as housing bubbles burst -- but the ensuing recession led to low
inflation, if not outright deflation. Owing to the credit crunch, there was a macro shock to
aggregate demand, whereas the risks today are on the supply side.
Worst of both
worlds
We are thus left with the worst of both the stagflationary 1970s and the 2007-10 period.
Debt ratios are much higher than in the 1970s, and a mix of loose economic policies and
negative supply shocks threatens to fuel inflation rather than deflation, setting the stage for
the mother of stagflationary debt crises over the next few years.
For now, loose monetary and fiscal policies will continue to fuel asset and credit
bubbles, propelling a slow-motion train wreck. The warning signs are already apparent in
today's high price-to-earnings ratios SPX , low equity risk
premiums, inflated housing and tech assets COMP , and the
irrational exuberance surrounding special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), the crypto
sector BTCUSD, ,
high-yield corporate debt , collateralized loan obligations, private equity, meme stocks
AMC, and runaway
retail day trading.
But meanwhile, the same loose policies that are feeding asset bubbles will continue to
drive consumer price inflation, creating the conditions for stagflation whenever the next
negative supply shocks arrive. Such shocks could follow from renewed protectionism; demographic
aging in advanced and emerging economies; immigration restrictions in advanced economies; the
reshoring of manufacturing to high-cost regions; or the balkanization of global supply
chains.
Recipe for macroeconomic disruption
More broadly, the Sino-American decoupling threatens to fragment the global economy at a
time when climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic are pushing national governments toward
deeper self-reliance. Add to this the impact on production of increasingly frequent
cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and the social and political backlash against
inequality, and the recipe for macroeconomic disruption is complete.
Making matters worse, central banks have effectively lost their independence, because
they have been given little choice but to monetize massive fiscal deficits to forestall a debt
crisis. With both public and private debts having soared, they are in a debt trap. Central
banks will be damned if they do and damned if they don't, and many governments will be
semi-insolvent and thus unable to bail out banks, corporations, and households. The doom loop
of sovereigns and banks in the eurozone after the global financial crisis will be repeated
world-wide
As inflation rises over the next few years, central banks will face a dilemma. If they start
phasing out unconventional policies and raising policy rates to fight inflation, they will risk
triggering a massive debt crisis and severe recession; but if they maintain a loose monetary
policy, they will risk double-digit inflation -- and deep stagflation when the next negative
supply shocks emerge.
But even in the second scenario, policy makers would not be able to prevent a debt crisis.
While nominal government fixed-rate debt in advanced economies can be partly wiped out by
unexpected inflation (as happened in the 1970s), emerging-market debts denominated in foreign
currency would not be. Many of these governments would need to default and restructure their
debts.
At the same time, private debts in advanced economies would become unsustainable (as they
did after the global financial crisis), and their spreads relative to safer government bonds
would spike, triggering a chain reaction of defaults. Highly leveraged corporations and their
reckless shadow-bank creditors would be the first to fall, soon followed by indebted households
and the banks that financed them.
The Volcker Moment
To be sure, real long-term borrowing costs may initially fall if inflation rises
unexpectedly and central banks are still behind the curve. But, over time, these costs will be
pushed up by three factors. First, higher public and private debts will widen sovereign and
private interest-rate spreads. Second, rising inflation and deepening uncertainty will drive up
inflation risk premiums. And, third, a rising misery index -- the sum of the inflation and
unemployment rate -- eventually will demand a "Volcker Moment."
When former Fed Chair Paul Volcker hiked rates to
tackle inflation in 1980-82, the result was a severe double-dip recession in the United States
and a debt crisis and lost decade for Latin America. But now that global debt ratios are almost
three times higher than in the early 1970s, any anti-inflationary policy would lead to a
depression, rather than a severe recession. The question is not if but when.
Under these conditions, central banks will be damned if they do and damned if they don't,
and many governments will be semi-insolvent and thus unable to bail out banks, corporations,
and households. The doom loop of sovereigns and banks in the eurozone after the global
financial crisis will be repeated world-wide, sucking in households, corporations, and shadow
banks as well.
As matters stand, this slow-motion train wreck looks unavoidable. The Fed's recent pivot
from an ultra-dovish to a mostly dovish stance changes nothing. The Fed has been in a debt trap
at least since December 2018, when a stock- and credit-market crash forced it to reverse its
policy tightening a full year before COVID-19 struck. With inflation rising and stagflationary
shocks looming, it is now even more ensnared.
So, too, are the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. The
stagflation of the 1970s will soon meet the debt crises of the post-2008 period. The question
is not if but when.
Nouriel Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and chief economist at Atlas Capital
Team.
Australia's tertiary education system is large, complex, and poorly regulated. Its
government funding sources, governance structures and annual reporting requirements lack
transparency and are inconsistent between and within jurisdictions. Distorted government
priorities and discredited ideological fixations have created a dysfunctional system that
devalues the work of academics and professional staff while imposing ever higher burdens on
students to pay more for less.
These statements and
others like them reinforce a widely held perception that the Coalition is
focused solely on higher education's economic contribution to the nation. At the same time
as it has raised its expectations of commercial outcomes from higher education, it has imposed
a wide range of additional funding cuts to teaching and research.
It is therefore clear that it is not the Federal Government that will primarily bear the
burden of its tertiary education ambitions. That burden will continue to fall squarely upon
Australian academics, students and professional staff. The ways governance and funding are
currently structured virtually guarantees such an outcome.
However, the overall contribution to the higher education system from the Federal Government
has halved over the last thirty years, from
around 80% to less than 40% . It has been able to do this by clawing back a much higher
proportion of universities' teaching costs from domestic students. Most of this transfer of the
cost burden to students has happened under the Coalition.
Even though total government funding for the higher education system grew 114% in real terms
since 1989, increasing from
$5.6 billion to $12 billion in 2018-19 , the number of domestic students in the system grew
by 165%, increasing from around 410,000 in 1989 to 1,087,850
in 2019 .
Allocated funding for higher education in the 2019‒2020 Federal Budget was $17.7
billion. But again, this included funding of $5.8 billion for HECS-HELP loans. Therefore,
actual government funding was only $11.9 billion out of total revenue for the higher education
system of $36.73 billion for that financial year. In other words, less than a third of the
system's total revenue was provided by the Commonwealth that year, yet it continues to behave
as though its contribution is far higher.
The combination of reduced revenue from domestic tuition fees due to government funding cuts
and from international students due to COVID has inevitably forced all of Australia's public
universities to cut expenditure over the last twelve months.
By late March 2020, however, cost savings in the core functions of teaching and research
were being sought by university executives, even though the full financial implications of the
pandemic were still far from clear.
Because labour costs have sat at around 57% of total university expenditure for the last
decade, they are always at the top of managerial priorities for cost-cutting, rather than
their own inflated wages or
latest pet projects . Executives have imposed early retirement and redundancies on
thousands of staff with little or no consultation. Many more casual and contracted staff have
been laid off or had their positions terminated at the end of their contracts. All the
indications from university executives are that
many more jobs are on the chopping block .
Universities made at least
17,000 full-time equivalent positions redundant in 2020 . This constitutes around 13% of
the total tertiary workforce. However, given that around half of that workforce
is employed casually or on contract , and has been for at least a decade, the total job
losses probably translate to around 50-60,000 in total. In other words, these job cuts need to
be grasped in the context of the massive casualisation of university teaching and
administration over the last few decades.
According to Universities Australia (UA), there was
130,000 full-time equivalent staff directly employed in the system in 2017 . However, like
the universities themselves, UA is unwilling to publicly acknowledge the number of casuals
working in the system. In 2018, there were
94,500 people employed on a casual basis at Australian universities . It would seem
reasonable on that basis to conclude that as many as half of all casuals have either totally
lost any work they had, or have had their work hours significantly reduced. However, most
universities steadfastly refuse to make employee headcount data public, so the data we do have
is inaccurate.
This has been borne out by a recent study of Victorian public university job losses in 2020
published by accounting professors James Guthrie and Brendan O'Connell. They have found that
even in Victoria, where universities are obligated to publish their casual workforce figures,
universities used inconsistent terminology and different techniques for recording their
staffing numbers at the end of 2020 . One estimate
from early May that 7,500 university employees in Victoria lost their jobs in 2020 is
therefore almost certainly an underestimate. Guthrie and O'Connell also found that universities
are using accounting losses to justify reducing employment.
The release of twenty-one university annual reports over the last few weeks strongly
reinforces their observations. UTS professor John Howard argues that the figures reported in
these annual reports raise
serious questions about the extent to which the financial crisis of the tertiary system
has been exaggerated . He points out that all but one of these universities recorded cash
surpluses, which averaged around 3% of total revenue. However, eight of them posted deficits
after they included 'non-cash' expenses such as depreciation, amortisation and changes in
investment valuations: none of these categories of 'expenses' constitute tangible revenue
losses. The bulk of university 'losses' were in decreased returns on investments (around $600
million) and the depreciation of assets, which totalled more than $1.4 billion.
Howard also points out that Australian universities had accessible cash or cash equivalent
reserves of
$4.6 billion at the beginning of the pandemic . Their own estimates indicate revenue losses
in 2020-21 of $3.8 billion. In other words, most of Australia's public universities have ample
financial assets at their disposal to offset any short- to medium-term loss of revenue.
Depreciation, amortisation and finance costs have seen the most significant growth in
'expenses' over the last decade. According to Deloitte, this category of expenses has seen the
highest growth, at
7.5% as a year-on-year average . Universities' adoption of accrual accounting has enabled
them to write off the value of fixed assets more quickly to inflate their expense claims every
year. These inflated expenses are used as an excuse to sack staff and cut programs. Howard
argues that if public universities did not use this business accounting convention, none
of the twenty-one universities he studied would have recorded any earnings deficit in 2020
.
It should therefore be clear that the main problem public universities face is not a lack of
revenue, or a lack of disposable assets to ride through a crisis. Their main problem is a lack
of transparency and accountability at the executive level which has enabled them to misallocate
financial resources, together with a corporate governance regime that has empowered executives
to behave in this fashion. These two issues need to be front and centre of reform of the
Australian higher education system.
Dr Adam Lucas is a senior lecturer in the Faculty of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences
at the University of Wollongong. Adam's contemporary research focuses on energy policy
responses to anthropogenic climate change and obstacles to a sustainable energy
transition.
The corporatization of Australia's public universities has been driven by government
funding cuts and regressive changes to how universities are governed. The rationale for
corporatization was that it would encourage universities to become more entrepreneurial by
turning vice-chancellors into CEOs and governing bodies into corporate boards. The resulting
hybrid has been very successful at promoting university 'brands' to international students but
has utterly failed to maintain a supportive and collegial work environment for staff and
students on university campuses.
While it is indisputable that most Australian universities have experienced huge
growth in international student revenues over the last decade, the billions of dollars in
'operating surpluses' that have flowed through the system during this time have not been
invested in expanding and developing academic workforces, or
lowering staff-student ratios , or increasing teaching and learning support for students.
Instead, those responsible for making these decisions have
spent billions of dollars on construction and marketing programs that laud their
institutions' world-class status (usually in the techno-sciences), while systematically
degrading the working conditions of academic and professional staff and the quality of
education received by students.
Resources critical to the performance of a wide range of tasks and initiatives are regularly
withheld for no good reason. Hiring freezes and the imposition of annual staff performance
assessments further contribute to the general atmosphere of fear and anxiety promoted by senior
management, who never appear to have the same performance metrics applied to them. Student and
staff services that had previously been free or subsidized have been monetized and privatized.
Professional services and expertise that could easily be sourced 'in-house' are routinely
outsourced to external consultants.
Few of these negative trends are captured in the metrics senior management regularly deploy
to spruik the virtues of their universities to students, parents and potential donors.
Preoccupied with 'cost recovery', 'performance metrics' and 'efficiency dividends', senior
managers and executives have reconstructed staff and students as revenue-generators who are
surplus to requirements if not producing financial surpluses and/or 'measurable outcomes' that
contribute to improved university rankings. International league tables, performance
monitoring, teaching and research excellence awards, and all the other 'metrics of excellence'
with which university executives and managers are currently obsessed are means to these
ends.
These legislative changes have been primarily motivated by a long-held belief within the
Coalition and certain elements of the Labor Party that universities should be run like
corporations. Those who have embraced this belief are convinced that business and industry
provide the best models for university governance because they always perform better than
public sector institutions.
Following the Dawkins reforms of Australia's higher education system in the early 1990s,
this item of faith has been progressively embedded in all of the administrative and managerial
functions of universities. As successive state and federal governments have continued to reduce
funding to the system they have sought to graft an increasingly Frankensteinian model of
'corporate governance' onto Australia's public universities.
For example, in 2012 the NSW Coalition Government inserted specific clauses in the
enabling
NSW legislation concerning university governance and finances which specify that appointed
members require financial and management experience, while those sub-clauses specifying
requirements for tertiary, professional and community experience have been removed. Similar
changes to university acts were made by the
WA Coalition Government in 2016 .
In a public corporation, the executive is accountable to shareholders and the board of
directors. Poor performance is questioned, and senior executives and managers can be removed if
the board or shareholders are unhappy with that performance. However, unlike corporate boards,
which are answerable to their shareholders, and to some extent, the public as 'clients' or
'consumers' of their goods and services, the accountability of university governing bodies is
effectively restricted to financial issues.
The auditors-general of each state and territory are empowered to annually scrutinize the
financial
accounts of all universities under their jurisdiction . Even so, it is highly unusual for
them to call universities to account for anything other than minor infringements of accounting
rules and standards. They have rarely shown any willingness to delve deeply into university
finances under their jurisdiction, despite some clear cases of
maladministration, mismanagement and even corruption . There is no evidence that any audits
have ever uncovered wrongdoing, conflicts of interest, or incidents of malfeasance, even though
we know from our own colleagues in administrative positions at multiple universities that such
behaviour is not at all uncommon.
Universities, therefore, have the worst of both worlds as far as their governance is
concerned. Staff and students have little or no say over how priorities are set and strategies
are pursued. They are subject to the whims of management, who generally regard academics as an
obstacle to the efficient running of 'their' universities, and who have no legitimate
contributions to make as far as they are concerned. They rarely admit to having made mistakes
or demonstrate any willingness to learn from them.
To illustrate this point, in the wake of COVID, it would make sense to proportionally cut
back on staffing and resources in those areas that had the highest proportions of international
students, and those related to their support and recruitment. However, there is no evidence
from any decisions made to date by university executives that these disciplines or activities
have borne the brunt of 'cost savings'. On the contrary, even prior to the current pandemic,
the arts, humanities and social sciences have been targeted for job cuts, including
non-replacement of tenured academics that have retired or resigned. In most of these instances,
the financial cases for these cuts have been based on decisions that have little or no evidence
to support them.
Many academics and students feel that senior managers target disciplines in these fields
because those who work and study in them are willing to speak out against management and
executive excesses. Critical thinking, teaching and research is deemed by university leaders to
be acceptable within those contexts,
but not when reflexively applied to their decision-making .
All of the distorted priorities that universities manifest today are an outcome of the
inappropriate and dysfunctional corporate governance and reporting models that successive
governments have imposed on universities throughout the country over many years. It is
noteworthy that Coalition governments throughout the country have made successive changes to
university acts that have the clear intention of disenfranchising staff and students from any
meaningful input into university governance.
It should be abundantly clear from all this that the existing legislation concerning
university governance is deeply flawed. It is an obstacle to better university governance and
degrades the value and quality of education for our young people and the next generation of
professionals. It also devalues the work of academic and professional staff and demonstrates no
capacity for critical self-reflection. It is therefore completely inadequate to the task of
confronting the enormous challenges that humanity faces in the twenty-first century.
We need to start a national conversation about the kinds of changes that are needed to bring
about genuine reform of Australia's higher education system. A good start would be to focus on
the ways in which university governing bodies are organized and constituted, with a particular
focus on how and why different categories of members are selected and represented.
Democratic accountability and transparency should be embedded in every new process and
structure.
Dr Adam Lucas is a senior lecturer in the Faculty of Humanities, Arts and Social
Sciences at the University of Wollongong. Adam's contemporary research focuses on energy
policy responses to anthropogenic climate change and obstacles to a sustainable energy
transition.
"On a daily basis, loadings will decline by 22% in July compared to the current month,
Reuters calculations showed."
REPLYPOLLUX IGNORED06/28/2021
at 1:37 pm
"Russian oil production has declined so far in June from average levels in May despite a
price rally in oil market and OPEC+ output cuts easing, two sources familiar with the data told
Reuters on Monday.
Russia's compliance with the OPEC+ oil output deal was at close to 100% in May, which
means the state is about to exceed its target in June.
Two industry sources said that lower output levels may be due to technical issues some
Russian oil producers are experiencing with output at older oilfields."RON PATTERSON IGNORED
06/28/2021 at 2:38 pm
Yes, they are definitely experiencing issues with their older oilfields, it's called
depletion. But that decline is only 33,000 bpd or .3%. But your post above that one says
exports in the third quarter will decline by 22%. What gives there?
I just checked the Russia site and they have revised up their original May estimate. It is
one week later than the original. Production is now down 9,000 b/d. RON PATTERSON IGNORED06/28/2021
at 4:50 pm
Yeah, they revised it up by 14,000 pbd. A pittance. Now they are down only 9,000 bpd instead
of 23,000. Nothing to get excited about. Basically, they were flat in May.
JEAN-FRANÇOIS FLEURY IGNORED06/28/2021
at 4:09 pm
"Russia plans to decrease oil loadings from its Western ports to 6.22 million tonnes for
July compared to 7.75 million tonnes planned for loading in June, the preliminary schedule
showed." 7,75 x 10^6 – 6,62 x 10^6 = 1130000 t. 1130000×7,3/30 = 274966 b/d.
Therefore, these decrease of oil export suggests a decrease of production of 274966 b/d.
Precedently, it was announced that oil exports of Russia would decrease of 7,2 % for the period
July-September or a decrease of 308222 b/d. Therefore, it's coherent.
https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/markets/story/Russias_quarterly_crude_oil_exports_to_drop_72_schedule-TR20210617nL5N2NY2IQX8/?fbclid=IwAR0ZjvwzjVS427CbUAzTL1vJfqog7R8CDwaJAvI3uUdaw_0z5S5l_57SGFY
I notice that it concerns the "Western ports", therefore the exports toward EU and USA. Well,
EU is also the main customer of Russia with 59% of the oil exports of Russia. RON PATTERSON IGNORED
06/28/2021 at 4:59 pm
Western Syberia is where all the very old supergiant fields are. They produce 60% of Russian
crude oil. Or at least they used to. LIGHTSOUT IGNORED06/29/2021
at 2:11 am
Ron
If one of the West Siberian giants is rolling over in the same way as Daquing did, things could
get very interesting very quickly. RON
PATTERSON IGNORED06/29/2021
at 7:24 am
Four of Russia's five giant fields are in Western Siberia. The fifth is in the Urals, on the
European side. All five have been creamed with infill horizontal drilling for almost 20 years.
All five are on the verge of a steep decline. Obviously, one and possibly more have already hit
that point.
This linked article below is 18 months old but there is a chart here that shows where
Russia's oil is coming from. Notice only a tiny part is coming from Eastern Siberia, the hope
for Russia's oil future. Those hopes are fading fast.
As I have written a few months ago: When you reduce output voluntarily for a longer time,
all the nickel nursers from accounting and controlling will cut you any investing in over
capacity you can't use at the moment. That works like this in any industry.
So you have to drill these additional infills and extensions after the cut is liftet. And
this will take time, while fighting against the ever lasting decline.
The U.S. has won international backing for a
global minimum rate of tax as part of a wider overhaul of the rules for
taxing international companies , a major step toward securing a final agreement on a key
element of the Biden administration's domestic plans for revenue raising and spending.
Officials from 130 countries that met virtually agreed Thursday to the broad outlines of
what would be the most sweeping change in international taxation in a century. Among them were
all of the Group of 20 major economies, including China and India, which previously had
reservations about the proposed overhaul.
Those governments now will seek to pass laws ensuring that companies headquartered in their
countries pay
a minimum tax rate of at least 15% in each of the nations in which they operate, reducing
opportunities for
tax avoidance .
"... The US seems to be especially vulnerable to issues caused by lack of precarity as it has such a poor welfare system, previously relying on infinite growth to smooth things over or a, now failing, religious faith to keep things in order; prolonged economic and political success that has led to a sense of entitlement and self-belief in the American way, a history of putting personal liberty above all else, which embraces competition rather than co-operation; and a world beating phobia of death well beyond when reproductive age has passed. ..."
"... The gig economy, middle class collapse, MAGA, BLM (and the police actions that prompted its rise), cancel culture, (un)reality TV's attraction, FOMO, the increase in low level strife, self-harming, on-line pornography addiction, the Oxycodone/Fentanyl epidemic etc. are all manifestations and/or causes of that precarity. Civil wars and major revolts (and almost any that succeed in their aims) tend to happen only when there is intra elite infighting rather than uprisings from below. The most likely catalyst for that at the moment is Trump, which may be a good sign given his ineffectualness, ineptitude and general repulsive lack of charisma; anyone even a bit more like a real human being could cause serious ructions. ..."
I have been reading "˜A More Contested World: Global Trends 2040' by The National
Intelligence Council; slowly as there's a lot in it but also a lot missing. No mention of
specific resource limits, no discussion of GM just general "˜technology' concerns
concentrating on AI and of course, god forbid any mention of overpopulation. It is very
US-centric "" in the good scenarios the world gets to a better place only through US leadership
"" and humanist focused with no consideration of the rights of the earth in general, only the
perpetuation of our civilisation and to that end all future scenarios are some variant of
technology led, growth obsessed, centralised BAU (maybe not with full globalism but still based
around hegemonic power structures at some level). It's a view from mainstream economists and
politicians carrying all the normal drawbacks that those words imply: i.e. bad things happen
when the world doesn't do as it's told to do by us, and if you don't agree with us about what
constitutes "˜bad' then you're wrong about that too.
The rising wealth gap and other inequality issues are a common theme in these global risk
studies. However, theories in some recent studies have proposed that it is not inequality
itself that is the problem so much as a prolonged sense of precarity (a new word to me and,
apparently, to MS spellchecker, but it is essentially identical to precariousness) of the
non-elites that accompanies it.
This makes sense from an evolutionary standpoint, as parents desire a stable and resource
abundant household in which their children can be expected to reach a reproductive age. This
might be expected to come more from the female side, as they are tied to their offspring more
than males, who are free to spread their sperm and move on. I have read reorts, possibly
anecdotal only, that it will invariably be the woman that will be the party insisting on buying
the largest house that can be attained, whether affordable or not. I'm all for gender equality
and women's rights but some things are innate and equal-rights do not mean equal hormones,
ambitions, impulses and behaviors.
From this viewpoint therefore, solving the wealth inequality issue is actually anathema to
population reduction. For example the already low birth rate in Italy had a further step down
caused by the increased precarity due to the economic impact of Covid-19, the government has
responded by offering direct incentives for having children. The apparent short term aims are
in direct opposition to the what is best long term, this is called a dilemma rather than a
problem.
The US seems to be especially vulnerable to issues caused by lack of precarity as it has
such a poor welfare system, previously relying on infinite growth to smooth things over or a,
now failing, religious faith to keep things in order; prolonged economic and political success
that has led to a sense of entitlement and self-belief in the American way, a history of
putting personal liberty above all else, which embraces competition rather than co-operation;
and a world beating phobia of death well beyond when reproductive age has passed.
The neologism for the growing proportion of people affected by precarity is the precariat.
The always readable Tim Watkins has a new post that touches on some of theses issues, with a
particular eye on the possibility (or not) of significant inflationary issues ( The
Everything Death Spiral ).
The gig economy, middle class collapse, MAGA, BLM (and the police actions that prompted
its rise), cancel culture, (un)reality TV's attraction, FOMO, the increase in low level strife,
self-harming, on-line pornography addiction, the Oxycodone/Fentanyl epidemic etc. are all
manifestations and/or causes of that precarity. Civil wars and major revolts (and almost any
that succeed in their aims) tend to happen only when there is intra elite infighting rather
than uprisings from below. The most likely catalyst for that at the moment is Trump, which may
be a good sign given his ineffectualness, ineptitude and general repulsive lack of charisma;
anyone even a bit more like a real human being could cause serious ructions.
Great post George thank you. It is quite evident for the astute observer that western
democracy has over the years turned more and more into an amalgam of kleptocracy, oligarchy and
plutocracy.
How many countries have colonial Europe and U.S foreign policy destroyed in the name of
"democracy" and "freedom" ?
I've lost count.
Plato famously is said to have said:
"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live
under the rule of fools."
In Platos book the republic, Socrates despises democracy as one of the worst forms of
government. His criticism those many years ago still resonates till this day (in my
opinion).
WIthout invoking logic, I feel the world is in uncharted waters and heading towards a
precipice which no one will see coming.
You have a typo, I believe you mean oxycontin (oxycodone) epidemic. HICKORY IGNORED HOLE
IN HEAD IGNORED 06/27/2021
at 1:12 pm
Hicks , not being based in USA ,my view maybe incorrect . The US is undergoing an
identity crisis . Where in the world did we have this gender crisis , male "" female heck can't
people see between their thighs ? Red-Blue . White Supremacy vs BLM . North vs South . Growing
up in the 70's US entrepreneurship was my inspiration . My hero's were Ford, Sloan , Edison etc
and what do we have today, Musk ? What changed that a society where work was an ethic has
transformed into a system where everyone is looking for an opportunity to suck at the teat of
the government . Amazing transformation for someone who has a reference point . Now I am going
into the stupid zone . What changed was the net surplus energy available per capita to the US
citizen . Once that flipped it was downhill all the way . I reserve the right to be incorrect
in my assessment .
Regarding the off-topic finish, I don't think most people realize how fragile is the glue
holding the US together.
Fragmentation along tribal lines is the biggest theme in American culture.
If a minority collection of tribes succeeds in the attempts to reverse election results, even
more than the Electoral College already does, the country will undergo a major restructuring
(polite description) with no guarantees on a recognizable outcome.
"... This is not the first time Summers has predicted that the firehose of fiscal and monetary stimulus will unleash soaring inflation. While career economists at the White House and Fed - who have peasants doing their purchases for them - urge Americans to ignore the current hyperinflation episode, saying that the recent inflation surge will soon pass, Summers has been unique among his fellow Democrats in predicting that massive monetary and fiscal stimulus alongside the reopening of the economy would spark considerable price pressures. ..."
"... Asked how financial markets may behave in the rest of 2021, Summers said "there will probably be more turbulence" as traders react to faster inflation by pushing up bond yields. "We've got a lot of processing ahead of us in markets," he said. ..."
It may not be quite hyperinflation - loosely defined as pricing rising at a double-digit
clip or higher - but if former Treasury Secretary and erstwhile democrat Larry Summers is
right, it will be halfway there in about six months.
One day after Bank of America warned that the coming "hyperinflation" will last at least 2
and as much as 4 years - whether or not one defines that as transitory depends on whether one
has a Federal Reserve charge card to fund all purchases in the next 4 years - Larry Summers,
who is this close from being excommunicated from the Democrat party, predicted inflation will
be running "pretty close" to 5% at the end of this year and that bond yields will rise as a
result over the rest of 2021.
Considering that consumer prices already jumped 5% in May from the previous year, his
forecast is not much of a shock.
Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Summers said that "my guess is that at the end of the year
inflation will, for this year, come out pretty close to 5%," adding that "it would surprise me
if we had 5% inflation with no effect on inflation expectations." If he is right, the recent
reversal in one-year inflation expectations which dipped from 4.6% to 4.2% according to the
latest UMich consumer sentiment survey, is about to surge to new secular highs.
This is not the first time Summers has predicted that the firehose of fiscal and monetary
stimulus will unleash soaring inflation. While career economists at the White House and Fed -
who have peasants doing their purchases for them - urge Americans to ignore the current
hyperinflation episode, saying that the recent inflation surge will soon pass, Summers has been
unique among his fellow Democrats in predicting that massive monetary and fiscal stimulus
alongside the reopening of the economy would spark considerable price pressures.
Asked how financial markets may behave in the rest of 2021, Summers said "there will
probably be more turbulence" as traders react to faster inflation by pushing up bond yields.
"We've got a lot of processing ahead of us in markets," he said.
Ironically, Summers - who now teaches at Harvard University whose president he was not too
long ago when he hung out with his buddy Jeffrey Epstein...
Plus Size Model 5 hours ago (Edited)
Exactly!! Not only that, it's not just the FED that is contributing to inflation. We can
also blame the SEC and the DOJ. I've never seen a Zero Hedge article blaming stock price
appreciation or buybacks for causing inflation or increasing the money supply. The DOJ
never enforces antitrust laws. The FBI never investigates money laundering from overseas
that creates artificial real estate appreciation that inflates the money supply when people
take out HELOC. There are other oversight bodies that, in a sane world, would not allow
foreign investment in real estate. Bitcoin and others are a new tool that is being used to
manipulate the money supply. It's comical how coins always go down when the little guys are
holding the bag and go up when Coinbase executives want to cash out.
Another thing, this artificial chip shortage, punitive tariffs, and new tax laws are
also adding to price increases.
Totally_Disillusioned 1 hour ago
Speculative investments have NEVER been included in the forumulation of CPI that
determines inflation rate.
Revolution_starts_now 6 hours ago
Larry Summers is a tool.
gregga777 5 hours ago (Edited) remove link
Banksters in 2010's: We've got to revise how we calculate inflation again to conceal it
from the Rubes.
Banksters in 2020: Ho Lee Fuk! Gun the QE engine! Pedal to the metal! Monetize all of
the Federal government's debt! Keep those stonks zooming upwards!
Banksters in 2021: Ho Lee Fuk! The Rubes have caught onto our game! Gun the QE engine!
Keep that pedal to the metal! Maybe the Rubes won't notice housing prices going up 20% per
year?
Summer 2021: Ho Lee Fuk! They are noticing Inflation! We'd better revise how we
calculate inflation again to conceal it from the Rubes.
On Fri the July futures contact for WTI closed at 74/bo and on June 21, 2021 (last data
points at EIA) the spot price for WTI was $73.64/bo and Brent spot price was $74.49/bo, so a
spread of under a dollar, quite unusual in the past 5 years or so when typical spread has been
roughly $5/bo between WTI and Brent (Brent usually has been higher). FRUGAL IGNORED POLLUX
IGNORED 06/28/2021
at 5:42 am
"Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc has informed customers that it will implement cuts of
around 15pc to client nominations of all its crude exports loading in September, even as the
Opec+ coalition considers further relaxing production quotas.
It was unclear why Adnoc is deepening reductions for its September-loading term crude
exports, with the decision coming ahead of the next meeting of Opec+ ministers scheduled for 1
July when the group is expected to decide on its production strategy for at least one
month"
"Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc has informed customers that it will implement cuts of
around 15pc to client nominations of all its crude exports loading in September, even as the
Opec+ coalition considers further relaxing production quotas.
It was unclear why Adnoc is deepening reductions for its September-loading term crude
exports, with the decision coming ahead of the next meeting of Opec+ ministers scheduled for 1
July when the group is expected to decide on its production strategy for at least one
month"
The Fed Faces The Greatest Risk In Its History: An Economic Crisis Accompanied By
Inflation BY TYLER DURDEN SUNDAY, JUN 27, 2021 - 11:58 AM
From Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
The fed funds rate was 9.75% when I arrived in the pit, Chicago 1989. US GDP that year was
3.7%, unemployment 5.4%, and inflation 4.6%. But the S&L crisis was widening, as they do.
So the Fed cut rates 75bps. Back then, the Fed certainly didn't signal its intentions. In fact,
the Fed neither confirmed nor denied what changes it made to interest rates even after it made
them. Unimaginable, right? So we had to guess Fed policy changes by observing what happened in
money markets. I obviously didn't understand any of it, after all, I was an economics
major.
The S&P 500 loved that 75bp rate cut more than it feared the S&L crisis, so stocks
took out the 1987 peak, making new highs in the autumn of '89. There was still tons of brain
damage from '87, and traders are notorious for being superstitious, so the pit was nervy that
October. When the S&P plunged -6% out of the blue on October 13th, the trading pit went
utterly berserk. I was so happy in that market mayhem. Soon enough, the Fed cut rates another
75bps. The S&P 500 grinded back up through the end of my first year, but never made new
highs.
Pause Unmute Duration 0:33 / Current Time 0:06 Loaded
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https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.469.0_en.html#goog_756093940 Wall Street
Bounces, After Selloff Fed Boosts Liquidity NOW PLAYING SoftBank Said to Plan $14 Billion Sale
of Alibaba Shares China's Companies Have Worst Quarter on Record, Beige Book Says U.S.-Saudi
Oil Alliance Under Consideration, Brouillette Says ETF Volumes Surge in Current Market
Environment Investors Have Given Up on a V-Shaped Recovery, BNY's Young Cautions
Despite the 150bps of rate cuts in 1989, and the record S&P highs, the economy soon
entered a recession. The Fed kept cutting rates for a couple years, ending at an impossibly low
rate of 3.00% in Feb 1992. US GDP was 3.5%, unemployment 7.4% and inflation was 2.9%. I had
made my way to London that year as a prop trader, just in time for the Exchange Rate Mechanism
collapse. The Europeans had created a system to ensure stability, certainty. And this naturally
encouraged traders and investors to build massive leveraged investment positions.
When systems designed to ensure stability fail, which they inevitably do when applied to
things as unstable as economies, the consequences are profound. As Europe worked through its
ERM collapse, Greenspan held fed funds at 3.00% for what seemed an eternity. No one could
understand anything he ever said, so you can't blame him for promising certainty, stability.
But people see what they want to see, hear what they want to hear, believe what they want to
believe. And soon, folks discovered how to make money by betting rates would never change, much
as they had bet on stability and certainty ahead of the ERM collapse.
US GDP in 1994 was 4.0%, unemployment was 5.5% and inflation 2.7%. Greenspan hiked rates
25bps to 3.25% in Feb 1994. Employment gains had been on a tear, and yet, somehow no one
expected that rate hike. Naturally, he hadn't pre-signaled a change. The bond market collapsed
. Most people don't think bond markets can crash, but that's only because they haven't traded
long enough to live through one. Like all crashes, that one happened for all sorts of complex
reasons, but the biggest was that the system was highly leveraged to a certain future.
Each interest rate cycle has been different of course. Over the decades, the Fed became
increasingly transparent. That transformation was surely well-intended, seeking to reduce the
risk of creating crises like that '94 crash. But it is impossible to create certainty without
also increasing fragility - that's how markets work . As the system became more fragile, it
required increasingly aggressive Fed intervention with each downturn. The process has been
reflexive. Now markets move based on what policy changes the Fed says it may make in 18-30
months.
* * *
Anecdote :
Congress mandated that the Federal Reserve promote maximum employment, stable prices, and
moderate long-term interest rates. That was in 1978. Unsurprisingly, the nation was reeling
from years of high unemployment, rapidly inflating prices, and soaring long-term interest
rates. In the decades since, the Fed has done a remarkably good job at meeting their specific
mandate. But like all systems built to create certainty, stability, it has simultaneously
produced profound fragility. This is most clearly seen in the need for ever more dramatic
monetary interventions with each cyclical downturn.
Less obvious is the rising political fragility which is increasingly destabilizing the
nation . Having tasked the Fed with producing economic prosperity by any monetary means
necessary, our politicians then stepped away. They stopped governing effectively, fanned the
flames of animosity, shielded from the adverse economic consequences of their dereliction of
duty.
In each economic crisis, it was the Fed that provided leadership, forestalling collapse, but
at a compounding cost. Now the nation approaches a point of peak economic and political
fragility . And while it is easy to condemn the Fed for having enabled the decades of
dysfunction, it is the political system that must bear the blame. But no matter, the Fed must
soldier on, like a magnificent machine, attempting the impossible, delivering certainty without
fragility, spinning ever faster to stand still.
And the greatest risk it now faces in meeting its mandate is an economic crisis accompanied
by inflation. Such a crisis would force it to choose between a return to orthodox policy and
the consequent defaults that would devastate asset prices, or a currency collapse and runaway
inflation that rebalances the value of our assets and liabilities. Without a determined
improvement in our politics, it is increasingly likely that we must endure the latter, followed
by the former. And this drama will surely play out in the decade ahead.
When and how another housing bubble will burst? This is the question.
The author forget that the current movement out of the cities into the suburb can lead to the
collapse of prices in overpriced areas of big cities like NYC. Also the retain space collapse is
evident even to untrained observers. So people moving out of big cities like NYC and cities
devastated by riots need to sell their current condos and apartments. To whom?
There are
many reports of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have
appreciated
by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market
volatility: Must what goes up come down ? Are we
repeating the excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market
crashed?
Some analysts
argue that this time, it's even less likely that prices will fall. Inventories
of new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This
is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.
New home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to
the level that has been common for decades. The portion of inventory built and ready for move-in is
especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand
during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn't worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly
snapping up the available homes.
... ... ...
At the June 2006 Federal
Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, "It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could
wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn't want to do that." It's notable that Jerome
Powell, who today holds Bernanke's former position as Fed chair, isn't openly pining for a
"cooler" housing market.
There is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by the
myth that home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to
be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat
them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but
we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.
If you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year
ago, you're getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done
about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal
policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If
it does, it will require communal intention""federal monetary and credit policies meant to
create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing
construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales
down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.
Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron's and
MarketWatch newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors. Submit
commentary proposals and other feedback to [email protected] .
Kevin
Erdmannis a visiting research fellow with the Mercatus Center at George Mason
University and author of Shut Out: How A Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and
Crippled Our Economy.
"... De Garay explained that after receiving the second coronavirus vaccine dose, her daughter started developing severe abdominal and chest pains. Maddie described the severity of the pain to her mother as "it feels like my heart is being ripped out through my neck." ..."
"... The Ohio mother added her daughter experienced additional symptoms that included gastroparesis, nausea, vomiting, erratic blood pressure, heart rate, and memory loss. "She still cannot digest food. She has a tube to get her nutrition," De Garay said to Carlson. "She also couldn't walk at one point, then she could I don't understand why and [physicians] are not looking into why...now she's back in a wheelchair and she can't hold her neck up. Her neck pulls back." ..."
"... De Garay said she had joined a Facebook support group to help people cope with the unexpected events happening from the coronavirus vaccine trial, and she said it was shut down. "It's just not right," she said. ..."
"... Sen. Ron Johnson , R-Wis., has sent letters to the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna seeking answers about adverse reactions to the COVID-19 vaccine following a June 28 press conference with affected individuals. The conference in Milwaukee included stories from five people, including De Garay ..."
"... The Wisconsin senator noted that some adverse reactions were detailed in Pfizer's and Moderna's Food and Drug Administration (FDA) emergency use authorization (EUA) memorandums following early clinical trials ..."
"... Those reactions included nervous system disorders and musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders for the Pfizer EUA memo. The Moderna EUA memo included reactions such as nervous system disorders, vascular disorders and musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders, according to Johnson's letter. ..."
"... You missed the whole point! The issue is that the government is not acknowledging and and not reporting these side effects of the vaccine. Instead they are lying about the safety. If you are young, you are much more likely to get sick and injured by the vaccine than COVID. ..."
"... anyone under 25 should not get the vaccine because the percentages are about the same or worse having a negative impact from the vaccine versus the actual virus. ..."
"... With the Covid19 mortality rate among the children why even vaccinate? As a Chemist / Biochemist I learned that there is always unintended consequences. ..."
"... Vaccines may have long term effects that are not known today. ..."
"... The CDC's generic guidelines for getting a vaccine for any reason are very restrictive, first being, the disease you're getting vaccinated against has to pose a real, immediate danger. CV-19 poses virtually no danger whatsoever to kids under 14. Of all the deaths of children 14 and under in the last 18 months only .8% of them had a case of CV-19. That's 367 deaths out of over 46,000. (Data from CDC website) Forcing them to take an experimental vaccine that they absolutely don't need is criminal. As a parent, allowing your child to take the vaccine without spending a few hours doing some research is criminally negligent. This is like some terribly warped Kafka novel but it's real. ..."
Mother Stephanie De Garay joins 'Tucker Carlson Tonight' to discuss how her 12-year-old
daughter volunteered for the Pfizer vaccine trial and is now in a wheelchair.
An Ohio mother is speaking out
about her 12-year-old daughter suffering extreme reactions and nearly dying after volunteering
for the Pfizer coronavirus
vaccine trial.
Stephanie De Garay told "Tucker Carlson Tonight" Thursday
that after reaching out to multiple physicians they claimed her daughter, Maddie De Garay,
couldn't have become gravely ill from the vaccine.
"The only diagnosis we've gotten for her is that it's conversion disorder or functional
neurologic symptom disorder, and they are blaming it on anxiety," De Garay told Tucker Carlson.
"Ironically, she did not have anxiety before the vaccine."
De Garay explained that after receiving the second coronavirus vaccine dose, her daughter
started developing severe abdominal and chest pains. Maddie described the severity of the pain
to her mother as "it feels like my heart is being ripped out through my neck."
The Ohio mother added her daughter experienced additional symptoms that included
gastroparesis, nausea, vomiting, erratic blood pressure, heart rate, and memory loss. "She still cannot digest food. She has a tube to get her nutrition," De Garay said to
Carlson. "She also couldn't walk at one point, then she could I don't understand why and
[physicians] are not looking into why...now she's back in a wheelchair and she can't hold her
neck up. Her neck pulls back."
Carlson asked whether any officials from the Biden administration or representatives from
Pfizer company have reached out to the family. "No, they have not," she answered.
"The response with the person that's leading the vaccine trial has been atrocious," she
said. "We wanted to know what symptoms were reported and we couldn't even get an answer on
that. It was just that 'we report to Pfizer and they report to the FDA.' That's all we
got."
After her heartbreaking experience, the Ohio mother said she's still "pro-vaccine, but also
pro-informed consent." De Garay mentioned she's speaking out because she feels like everyone
should be fully aware of this tragic incident and added the situation is being "pushed down and
hidden."
De Garay said she had joined a Facebook support group to help people cope with the
unexpected events happening from the coronavirus vaccine trial, and she said it was shut
down. "It's just not right," she said.
"They need to do research and figure out why this happened, especially to people in the
trial. I thought that was the point of it," De Garay concluded. "They need to come up with
something that's going to treat these people early because all they're going to do is keep
getting worse."
Sen. Ron
Johnson , R-Wis., has sent letters to the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna seeking answers
about adverse reactions to the COVID-19vaccine
following a June 28 press conference with affected individuals. The conference in Milwaukee
included stories from five people, including De Garay.
The Wisconsin senator noted that some adverse reactions were detailed in Pfizer's and
Moderna's Food and Drug Administration (FDA) emergency use authorization (EUA) memorandums
following early clinical trials.
Those reactions included nervous system disorders and musculoskeletal and connective tissue
disorders for the Pfizer EUA memo. The Moderna EUA memo included reactions such as nervous
system disorders, vascular disorders and musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders,
according to Johnson's letter.
Pfizer and Moderna did not immediately respond to inquiries from Fox News about Johnson's
letters.
J jeff5150357 6 hours ago
My daughter had the same thing happen to
her after getting a flu vaccine 9 years ago. Within days of getting it, she went from being as
healthy as an ox to years of awful, unexplained illness. The short version is they concluded
that she had a severe adverse reaction to the vaccine, but from the delivery chemicals, not the
flu content itself. Formaldehyde was the likely major cause. Now she is getting ready to begin
college and is being required to get the Covid vaccine by her university and the NCAA for
athletics. It is causing her, my wife and I horrible anxiety and we feel like we are being
railroaded into something that could be very dangerous for her. Any discussion or concern
expressed on social media is immediately blocked. I know from years of working in the research
grants office at Yale University that the big pharma industry is powerful and will go to great
lengths to control the narrative. What I don't understand is why mainstream media and social
media are so willing to help them these days!
jeff5150357 4 hours ago
While the college experience is great for a young adult. I would look at getting a degree
online. Her future earnings will be based on her merit, not where she went to school. If
someone was telling me what to do with my personal health, and I was uncomfortable with their
prescription, I would follow my instincts.
LoraJane92649 jeff5150357 5
hours ago
If her flu vax is well documented she should be able to get a waiver. Hopefully you
have an able bodied family physician or medical team to advocate on your behalf.
G gunvald 7 hours ago
You know when you take it that there can be adverse
reactions. So, in that sense, you are informed. Any one of us could be the odd person. That
said, I have a problem with any child getting these vaccines, especially when most people
recover from the disease. It's one thing for me as an elderly person to make the decision to
take it as covid affects the elderly person more and I wanted to avoid that ventilator. Most of
my life has been lived and that's how I evaluated it. This will always come down to putting it
in God's hands.
TheTruthAsItIs gunvald 6 hours ago
You missed the whole point! The
issue is that the government is not acknowledging and and not reporting these side effects of the
vaccine. Instead they are lying about the safety. If you are young, you are much more likely to
get sick and injured by the vaccine than COVID.
D DontDestoryUSA
gunvald 4 hours ago
It's not being informed when you are forced to take a vaccination that they
clearly had trouble with past vaccination sounds like a lawsuit for the university is on the
horizon. With a big pay day
Tony5SFG 7 hours ago
"Ohio
mother said she's still "pro-vaccine, but also pro-informed consent." " And as a pediatrician
for over 40 yrs (retired now) and a 10 year member of my medical school's Institutional Review
Board (which had to approve all human research), THAT is a problem I have been bringing up As
far as requiring all young people, such as entering or in college, to get the vaccine Children
are a protected class and the informed consent for research on them is much more strenuous than
for adults And, requiring young people to take these new vaccines is the equivalent of doing
research on them. The issue of myocarditis is quite troubling. And while it has been seen in
natural infections, I have not yet seen an adequate risk - benefit evaluation regarding risking
natural infection versus vaccination And people say that the myocarditis is not severe, no one
can be sure of the long term effects of a young person getting it. The vaccines that we give
children have been used for decades and the risks/benefits have been well established
D DallasAmEmail Tony5SFG 6 hours ago
A friends daughter who just went through internship as
Physicians assistant based on the percentages in age groups believes anyone under 25 should not
get the vaccine because the percentages are about the same or worse having a negative impact
from the vaccine versus the actual virus. Yes, older age groups the percent having negative
impact from the virus is much greater than the vaccine, so yes older age groups should get the
vaccine. What really is bothersome is when Youtube removes Dr. Robert Malone video who helped
create the mrna vaccine express concern that normal testing has not happened and be cautious
about taking it, especially for the young.
marinesfather601 Tony5SFG 5
hours ago
With the Covid19 mortality rate among the children why even vaccinate? As a Chemist /
Biochemist I learned that there is always unintended consequences.
Hilltopper9 7 hours ago
Vaccines may have long term effects that are not known
today. The same could be said of all the chemicals we apply to our body daily through shampoos,
hair dyes, body lotions, and suntan lotions. Life's a gamble. It's up to each individual to
make the best decisions possible given the facts available.
A akbushrat
Hilltopper9 6 hours ago
The CDC's generic guidelines for getting a vaccine for any reason are
very restrictive, first being, the disease you're getting vaccinated against has to pose a
real, immediate danger. CV-19 poses virtually no danger whatsoever to kids under 14. Of all the
deaths of children 14 and under in the last 18 months only .8% of them had a case of CV-19.
That's 367 deaths out of over 46,000. (Data from CDC website) Forcing them to take an
experimental vaccine that they absolutely don't need is criminal. As a parent, allowing your
child to take the vaccine without spending a few hours doing some research is criminally
negligent. This is like some terribly warped Kafka novel but it's real.
F
Fauxguy930 Hilltopper9 5 hours ago
☢️ N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl)nitrosamine is a
nitrosamine that has butyl and 4-hydroxybutyl substituents. In mice, it causes high-grade,
invasive cancers in the urinary bladder, but not in any other tissues. It has a role as a
carcinogenic agent. Ingredient in all shots. How did a carcinogen get FDA approved, oh it was
an emergency.
R RussellRika 6 hours ago
I have a
twelve year old, and not a chance I'd allow her to volunteer for any vaccine trial, and
especially not this one. She very much wanted to get a vaccine, until she started reading about
some of the adverse reactions. Sorry, but I'm a child, the benefit does not outweigh the risk.
MrEd50 6 hours ago
I took the vaccine because I'm 60 years old and work with special ed kids. My 18 year old child
refuses to take it and I support him on this. COVID shouldn't be an issue for most of us.
The problem is that many people face long term unemployment without substantial emergency funds, which further complicates
already difficult situation.
Notable quotes:
"... More than 2K adults to were interviewed to try and ascertain how long they could survive without income. It turns out that approximately 72.4MM employed Americans - 28.4% of the population - believe they wouldn't be able to last for more than a month without a payday. ..."
Imagine you lost your job tomorrow. How long would you be able to sustain your current
lifestyle? A week? A month? A year?
As we await Friday's labor market update, Finder has just published the results of a recent
survey attempting to gauge the financial stability of the average American in the post-pandemic
era.
More than 2K adults to were interviewed to try and ascertain how long they could survive
without income. It turns out that approximately 72.4MM employed Americans - 28.4% of the
population - believe they wouldn't be able to last for more than a month without a payday.
Another 24% said they expected to be able to live comfortably between two months and six
months. That means an estimated 133.6MM working Americans (52.3% of the population) can live
off their savings for six months or less before going broke.
On the other end of the spectrum, roughly 8.7MM employed Americans (or 3.4% of the
population) say they don't need to rely on a rainy day fund since they have employment
insurance which will compensate them should they lose their job.
Amusingly, men appear to be less effective savers than women. Some 32.4MM women (26.7% of
American women) say their savings would stretch at most a month, compared to 40MM men (29.9% of
American men) who admit to the same. Of those people, 9.7MM women (8% of American women) say
their savings wouldn't even stretch a week, compared to 15.5MM men (11.6% of American men) who
admit to the same.
A majority of employed Americans over the age of 18 say their savings would last six months
at most. About 70.7MM men (52.8% of American men) and 62.8MM women (51.8% of American women)
fear they'd be in dire straits within six months of losing their livelihood.
Unsurprisingly, younger people tend to have less of a savings buffer - but the gap between
the generations isn't as wide as it probably should be.
While increasing one's income is perhaps the best route to building a more robust nest egg,
Finder offered some suggestions for people looking to maximize their savings.
1. Create a budget and stick to it
Look at your monthly income against all of your monthly expenses. Add to them expenses you
pay once or twice a year to avoid a surprise when they creep up. After you know where your
money is going, you can allot specific amounts to different categories and effectively track
your spending.
"... Indeed, economists and analysts have gotten used to presenting facts from the perspective of private employers and their lobbyists. The American public is expected to sympathize more with the plight of wealthy business owners who can't find workers to fill their low-paid positions, instead of with unemployed workers who might be struggling to make ends meet. ..."
"... West Virginia's Republican Governor Jim Justice justified ending federal jobless benefits early in his state by lecturing his residents on how, "America is all about work. That's what has made this great country." Interestingly, Justice owns a resort that couldn't find enough low-wage workers to fill jobs. Notwithstanding a clear conflict of interest in cutting jobless benefits, the Republican politician is now enjoying the fruits of his own political actions as his resort reports greater ease in filling positions with desperate workers whose lifeline he cut off. ..."
For the past few months, Republicans have been waging a ferocious political battle to end
federal unemployment benefits, based upon stated desires of saving the U.S. economy from a
serious labor shortage. The logic, in the words
of Republican politicians like Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, goes like this: "the government pays
folks more to stay home than to go to work," and therefore, "[p]aying people not to work is not
helpful." The conservative Wall Street Journal has been beating the drum for the same argument,
saying recently that it was a " terrible
blunder " to pay jobless benefits to unemployed workers.
If the hyperbolic claims are to be believed, one might imagine American workers are
luxuriating in the largesse of taxpayer-funded payments, thumbing their noses at the earnest
"job creators" who are taking far more seriously the importance of a post-pandemic economic
growth spurt.
It is true that there are currently millions of jobs going unfilled. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics just
released statistics showing that there were 9.3 million job openings in April and that the
percentage of layoffs decreased while resignations increased. Taking these statistics at face
value, one could conclude this means there is a labor shortage.
But, as economist Heidi Shierholz explained in a New York
Times op-ed , there is only a labor shortage if employers raise wages to match worker
demands and subsequently still face a shortage of workers. Shierholz wrote, "When those
measures [of raising wages] don't result in a substantial increase in workers, that's a labor
shortage. Absent that dynamic, you can rest easy."
Remember the subprime mortgage housing crisis of 2008 when
economists and pundits blamed low-income homeowners for wanting to purchase homes they
could not afford? Perhaps this is the labor market's way of saying, if you can't afford higher
salaries, you shouldn't expect to fill jobs.
Or, to use the logic of another accepted capitalist argument, employers could liken the job
market to the surge pricing practices of ride-share companies like Uber and Lyft. After
consumers complained about hiked-up prices for rides during rush hour,
Uber explained , "With surge pricing, Uber rates increase to get more cars on the road and
ensure reliability during the busiest times. When enough cars are on the road, prices go back
down to normal levels." Applying this logic to the labor market, workers might be saying to
employers: "When enough dollars are being offered in wages, the number of job openings will go
back down to normal levels." In other words, workers are surge-pricing the cost of their
labor.
But corporate elites are loudly complaining that the sky is falling -- not because of a real
labor shortage, but because workers are less likely now to accept low-wage jobs. The U.S.
Chamber of Commerce
insists that "[t]he worker shortage is real," and that it has risen to the level of a
"national economic emergency" that "poses an imminent threat to our fragile recovery and
America's great resurgence." In the Chamber's worldview, workers, not corporate employers who
refuse to pay better, are the main obstacle to the U.S.'s economic recovery.
Longtime labor organizer and senior scholar with the Institute for Policy Studies Bill Fletcher Jr. explained to me in an email
interview that claims of a labor shortage are an exaggeration and that, actually, "we suffered
a minor depression and not another great recession," as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
In Fletcher's view, "The so-called labor shortage needs to be understood as the result of
tremendous employment reorganization, including the collapse of industries and companies."
Furthermore, according to Fletcher, the purveyors of the "labor shortage" myth are not
accounting for "the collapse of daycare and the impact on women and families, and a continued
fear associated with the pandemic."
He's right. As one analyst
put it, "The rotten seed of America's disinvestment in child care has finally sprouted." Such
factors have received little attention by the purveyors of the labor shortage myth -- perhaps
because acknowledging real obstacles like care work requires thinking of workers as real human
beings rather than cogs in a capitalist machine.
Indeed, economists and analysts have gotten used to presenting facts from the perspective of
private employers and their lobbyists. The American public is expected to sympathize more with
the plight of wealthy business owners who can't find workers to fill their low-paid positions,
instead of with unemployed workers who might be struggling to make ends meet.
Already, jobless benefits were slashed to appallingly low levels after Republicans reduced a
$600-a-week payment authorized by the CARES Act to a mere
$300 a week , which works out to $7.50 an hour for full-time work. If companies cannot
compete with this exceedingly paltry sum, their position is akin to a customer demanding to a
car salesperson that they have the right to buy a vehicle for a below-market-value sticker
price (again, capitalist logic is a worthwhile exercise to showcase the ludicrousness of how
lawmakers and their corporate beneficiaries are responding to the state of the labor
market).
Remarkably, although federal jobless benefits are funded through September 2021,
more than two dozen Republican-run states are choosing to end them earlier. Not only will
this impact the bottom line for
millions of people struggling to make ends meet, but it will also undermine the stimulus
impact that this federal aid has on the economies of states when jobless workers spend their
federal dollars on necessities. Conservatives are essentially engaged in an ideological battle
over government benefits, which, in their view, are always wrong unless they are going to the
already privileged (remember the GOP's 2017
tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy?).
The GOP has thumbed its nose at federal benefits for residents before. In order to
underscore their ideological opposition to the Affordable Care Act, recall how Republican
governors
eschewed billions of federal dollars to fund Medicaid expansion. These conservative
ideologues chose to let their own
voters suffer the consequences of turning down federal aid in service of their political
opposition to Obamacare. And they're doing the same thing now.
At the same time as headlines are screaming about a catastrophic worker shortage that could
undermine the economy, stories abound of how American billionaires paid
peanuts in income taxes according to newly released documents, even as their wealth
multiplied to extraordinary levels. The obscenely wealthy are spending their mountains of cash on luxury
goods and fulfilling
childish fantasies of space travel . The juxtaposition of such a phenomenon alongside the
conservative claim that jobless benefits are too generous is evidence that we are indeed in a
"national economic emergency" -- just not of the sort that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce wants
us to believe.
West
Virginia's Republican Governor Jim Justice justified ending federal jobless benefits early
in his state by lecturing his residents on how, "America is all about work. That's what has
made this great country." Interestingly, Justice owns a resort that couldn't find enough
low-wage workers to fill jobs. Notwithstanding a clear conflict of interest in cutting jobless
benefits, the Republican politician is now enjoying the fruits of his own political actions as
his resort reports greater ease in filling positions with desperate workers whose lifeline he
cut off.
When lawmakers earlier this year
debated the Raise the Wage Act , which would have increased the federal minimum wage,
Republicans wagged their fingers in warning, saying higher wages would put companies out of
business. Opponents of that failed bill claimed that if forced to pay $15 an hour, employers
would hire fewer people, close branches, or perhaps shut down altogether, which we were told
would ultimately hurt workers.
Now, we are being told another story: that companies actually do need workers and won't
simply reduce jobs, close branches, or shut down and that the government therefore needs to
stop competing with their ultra-low wages to save the economy. The claim that businesses would
no longer be profitable if they are forced to increase wages is undermined by one
multibillion-dollar fact: corporations are raking in record-high profits and doling them out to
shareholders and executives. They can indeed afford to offer greater pay, and when
they do, it turns out there is no labor shortage .
American workers are at a critically important juncture at this moment. Corporate employers
seem to be approaching a limit of how far they can push workers to accept poverty-level jobs.
According to Fletcher, "This moment provides opportunities to raise wage demands, but it must
be a moment where workers organize in order to sustain and pursue demands for improvements in
their living and working conditions."
Sonali Kolhatkar is the founder, host and executive producer of "Rising Up With Sonali,"
a television and radio show that airs on Free Speech TV and Pacifica stations. She is a writing
fellow for the Economy for All project at the Independent Media Institute. This article was
produced by Economy for All , a project of the
Independent Media Institute.
Personalities of the Left are group-thinkers, not critical-thinkers.
Group-thinkers have two giant vulnerabilities: They're easily misled by ANYONE with
harisma, and psychopaths actively exploit that weakness. And inasmuch as group-think
inherently discounts primary evidence in favor of social affirmation, group-think is ALWAYS
wrong.
In the paper market, Brent Crude prices already hit $75 a barrel this
week, for the first time in over two years.
WTI Crude was above $73 early on Wednesday as
demand strengthened and as U.S. crude oil inventories were estimated by the American Petroleum
Institute (API) to have
shrunk by 7.199 million barrels for the week ending June 18.
Backwardation in the WTI futures continues to tighten "a sign of a tighter market.
For example, the September-October spread is at a seven-year high at $1.09 per barrel on
expectations that storage levels at the WTI futures delivery hub at Cushing will continue to
decline amid strong Midwest refinery demand, Saxo Bank said
on Tuesday.
Similar to BofA, Goldman Sachs is expecting firmer oil prices moving forward. Strategists at
the investment bank don't rule out prices nearing $100 a barrel before year end.
"Near term our highest conviction long is oil where we still see brent [crude oil] averaging
$80/bbl this third quarter with potential spikes well above $80/bbl. Global demand likely rose
to 97.0 million barrels a day in recent days from 95.0 million barrels a day just a few weeks
ago as the U.S. passes the baton to Europe and emerging markets, where even India is beginning
to show improvements," Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research
Jeffrey Currie contends .
Adds Currie, "With such robust demand growth against an almost inelastic supply curve
outside of core OPEC+ (GCC + Russia), the global oil market is facing its deepest deficits
since last summer at nearly 3.0 million barrels a day. With refiners quickly responding to
small improvements in margins, petroleum product supplies have broadly matched this jump in
end-use demand, leaving this deficit almost entirely in crude."
"Objective judgement is our jugement about the people we do not like ;-)"
In view of the fact that Delta (Indian) variant can infect vaccinated with the first
generation of vaccines people Fauci statement "when you get vaccinated, you not only protect your
own health, that of the family, but also you contribute to the community health by preventing the
spread of the virus throughout the community." i obviously wrong.
Delta Covid-19 Variant Can Infect Vaccinated People
Those who don't get their news from mainstream media have been aware of Anthony Fauci's
connection to "gain of function" research for months. Now, mainstream media is picking it up so
the White House is scrambling.
For months, there wasn't a day that went by when Dr. Anthony Fauci wasn't doing multiple
interviews spreading fear of Covid-19, demanding people take the various "vaccines," and
changing his talking points from moment to moment on a slew of healthcare-related issues. We
saw a clear change last week when the White House's chief doc seemed to fly under the radar for
the first time since Joe Biden took office.
It all comes down to "gain of function" research that is almost certainly the cause of the
Wuhan Flu. Developed in the Wuhan Virology Lab, Covid-19 either escaped or was intentionally
released. While many in academia still hold onto the notion that the pandemic was started by
bats, they do so simply because it hasn't -- and likely cannot -- be completely ruled out as
long as the Chinese Communist Party has a say in the matter. But many are now accepting the
likelihood that it came from the Wuhan Virology Lab as a result of "gain of function"
research.
We also now know that Fauci has been a
huge proponent of this research and he participated
in funding it at the Wuhan Virology Lab.
More evidence is emerging every day despite the bad doctor's protestations. And when I say
"we also now know," that's to say more mainstream media watchers know. Those who turn to
alternative media have known about Fauci's involvement with the Wuhan Virology Lab for a
while.
They've been trying to cover their tracks. A bombshell revelation from The
National Pulse yesterday showed they realized this was going to be a problem long before
Rand Paul
or Tucker Carlson started
calling Fauci out.
The Wuhan Institute of Virology scrubbed the U.S. National Institutes of Health as one
of its research partners from its website in early 2021. The revelation comes despite Dr.
Anthony Fauci insisting no relationship existed between the institutions.
Archived versions of the Wuhan lab's site also reveal a research update – "
Will SARS Come Back? " – appearing to describe gain-of-function research being
conducted at the institute by entities funded by Dr. Anthony Fauci's National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).
On March 21st, 2021, the lab's website listed six U.S.-based research partners:
University of Alabama, University of North Texas, EcoHealth Alliance, Harvard University, The
National Institutes of Health (NIH), the United States, and the National Wildlife
Federation.
One day later, the page was revised to contain just two research
partners – EcoHealth Alliance and the University of Alabama. By March 23rd,
EcoHealth Alliance was the sole partner
remaining .
The Wuhan Institute of Virology's decision to wipe the NIH from its website came amidst
heightened
scrutiny that the lab was the source of COVID-19 – and that U.S. taxpayer dollars
from the NIH may have funded the research. The unearthing of the lab's attempted coverup also
follows a heated
exchange between Senator Rand Paul and Fauci, who attempted to distance his organization
from the Wuhan lab.
Beyond establishing a working relationship between the NIH and the Wuhan Institue of
Virology, now-deleted posts
from the site also detail studies bearing the hallmarks of gain-of-function research
conducted with the Wuhan-based lab. Fauci, however, asserted to Senator Paul that "the NIH
has not ever and does not now fund gain-of-function research in the Wuhan Institute of
Virology."
There is still a tremendous gap between those who know the truth about Fauci and those who
still think he's just a smart little guy who tells Joe Biden what to do when it comes to Covid.
As we've documented multiple times in the past, there seems to be a cult of personality
surrounding Fauci, or as many have called it, Faucism. He is practically worshipped as a savior
by millions who believe everything he says even if he contradicts something he had said in the
past.
Today, he was interviewed on CBS News during "Face the Nation." It was a softball interview,
as always, and at no point was "gain of function" research discussed. Instead, John Dickerson
tried to sound smart and Fauci gave him kudos in an odd back-and-forth promoting vaccines.
JOHN DICKERSON : So, if- if a person is deciding whether or not to get vaccinated, they
have to keep in mind whether it's going to keep them healthy. But based on these new
findings, it would suggest they also have an opportunity, if vaccinated, to knock off or
block their ability to transmit it to other people. So, does it increase the public health
good of getting the vaccination or make that clearer based on these new findings?
DR. FAUCI : And you know, JOHN, you said it very well. I could have said it better.
It's absolutely the case. And that's the reason why we say when you get vaccinated, you not
only protect your own health, that of the family, but also you contribute to the community
health by preventing the spread of the virus throughout the community. And in other words,
you become a dead end to the virus. And when there are a lot of dead ends around, the virus
is not going to go anywhere. And that's when you get a point that you have a markedly
diminished rate of infection in the community. And that's exactly the reason, and you said it
very well, of why we encourage people and want people to get vaccinated. The more people you
get vaccinated, the safer the entire community is.
JOHN DICKERSON : And do you think now that this guidance has come out on relaxing the
mass mandates if you've been vaccinated, that people who might have been hesitant before will
start to get vaccinated in greater numbers?
DR. FAUCI : You know, I hope so, JOHN. The underlying reason for the CDC doing this was
just based on the evolution of the science that I mentioned a moment ago. But if, in fact,
this serves as an incentive for people to get vaccinated, all the better. I hope it does,
actually.
Don't let the presence of this interview fool you. It was almost certainly scheduled before
the "gain of function" research discussion hit the mainstream. But as Revolver News reported
today, we should start seeing less and less of Fauci going forward.
What happened to the almighty Dr. Fauci? Last week he was on TV telling all of us that life
wouldn't get back to normal for at least another year or so, and this week he's pretty much
gone. So what happened?
Well, a lot, actually. The biggest turn for Fauci involves 3 little words: Gain of Function.
It was this past week when the "gain of function" dots were publicly connected to the good
doctor. This is nothing new for those of us on the right. Here on Revolver, we've covered
Fauci's gain of function research extensively and the evidence against him is very damning.
A couple of months ago Fox News Host Steve Hilton blew the lid off of Fauci's macabre
obsession (and funding) of research involving the manipulation of highly contagious viruses.
Hilton laid the groundwork, but it was Senator Rand Paul who called out Fauci and his ghoulish
research face to face during a Senate hearing.
But even more notable, is that the CDC just updated their guidelines on mask-wearing and
essentially ended the pandemic -- a pandemic that Fauci has been the proud face of for over a
year now -- and when that announcement hit, he was nowhere to be found. And his absence didn't
go unnoticed.
Yes indeed, you'd think that Fauci would have been front and center to discuss the CDC's new
guidelines the moment the news hit. The "Golden Boy" taking yet another victory lap. After all,
Fauci never misses a moment in the spotlight. But he was not hitting the airwaves with the
typical fanfare.
It is still very possible that Fauci can make a resurgence. His fan-base is up there with
Meghan Markle and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, though even more devoted than the divas'. Unlike
other useful idiots, the White House will not be able to detach easily from Fauci, nor do they
want to. At this point, they're telling him to lay low and avoid any interviews in which they
do not have complete control over the "journalist" involved. John Dickerson has been a Democrat
Party pawn for decades.
Behind the scenes, they're already planning on ditching him. It will be done with all the
pomp one would expect for one of their heroes and will be used to mark the end of the
"emergency" in the United States. He'll still be promoting vaccines and will try to stay in his
precious limelight, but Democrats are ready to move on and open up the country. It has just
been too politically suicidal to persist with their lockdown mentality.
The key to seeing Fauci's narcissistic reign end is for patriots to continue to hammer him
on his involvement with developing Covid-19. His beloved "gain of function research" needs to
be explained to any who will listen. Then, maybe, Fauci will go away.
Sounds like a great book for Tucker to recommend to that Army Chief of Staff!
Notable quotes:
"... I call it ROLE -- The Racism Of Low Expectations. This phenomenon has done ten times more to damage Black lives than can be attributed to CRT or institutionalized racism. ..."
"... A subset of ROLE is MVT. This is Manufactured Victimhood Theory. This comes about from influential Black "leaders" who, instead of teaching Blacks the truth about how to live good lives (work hard, develop skills, etc.), they told them to apply as their life strategy "say you are a victim." ..."
Recently the Joint Chiefs of Staff remarked that the US military should teach CTR to our
military essentially because they shoild teach all theories.
That doesn't make sense to me but I would like to put another theory into the public
sphere. I call it ROLE -- The Racism Of Low Expectations. This phenomenon has done ten times
more to damage Black lives than can be attributed to CRT or institutionalized racism.
A subset of ROLE is MVT. This is Manufactured Victimhood Theory. This comes about from
influential Black "leaders" who, instead of teaching Blacks the truth about how to live good
lives (work hard, develop skills, etc.), they told them to apply as their life strategy "say
you are a victim."
I am hoping that ROLE and MVT will become part of all aspects of American life -- all
levels of education, the military, businesses, the media, etc.
If the goal really is to improve Black lives, ROLE and MVT should be the rage over the
next few years.
Tom F
John Callahan 4 hours ago
Corporate America 'makes money critiquing itself.' The rest of us pay the price in
diminished freedom.
Wokeism is fascism dressed up in new clothes- the censorship, demonization of
groups and individuals and the physical violence against people and property remain the same.
Corporate America has one overriding interest- making money. Paying the left (and yes,
fascism is of the left) through critiquing itself and token monetary donations is a get out
of jail free card for Corporate America.
"Capitalism knows only one color: that color is green; all else is necessarily
subservient to it, hence, race, gender and ethnicity cannot be considered within it."
- Thomas Sowell
Dom Fried 4 hours ago
It will end the same. Almost, because there will be nobody to stop it.
Ed Baron 3 hours ago
Very well said, John. Fascism is a fundamental element or subset of Leftist or Marxist
thought. It demands conformity of the individual to the new "woke" state and it punishes any
who dissent. It's not incidental that American Leftists, including FDR, loved Mussolini prior
to WWII. That bromance has been washed clean, and attributed instead to the Right. Such a
typical transference technique used by Marxist.
Alex Guiness
I interpret your supposition 'White male global warming', as meaning White Males are
particularly flatulent hence are producing Green House Gases with their diets of greasy meats
(some on sticks), carnival funnel cakes, corn dogs, Philly cheese-steaks, Popeyes fried
chicken, all washed down with Bud Light. Would it kill them to have a salad now and then? How
can their spouses stand to be around them unless they are also consuming the same foods.
Imagine what it must be like at a sermon in a Lutheran Church, the whitest church of all.
They leave the doors open else a spark could set the whole place ablaze.
carol Perry
Thanks for today's chuckle Alex.
Alex Guiness
read my smurfs comment. i just posted it
Lynn Silton
Mr. Ramaswamy is right in every way! I don't belong to the Woke Church. I'll never join.
America is an inspirational country as is all it's written declarations. We, the people rule.
No religion can overrule it. We will not allow religious 'honor killings.' They are murder
here. We will not allow Wokism here it is the murder of our hopes and dreams which belong to
everybody regardless of appearance. I don't even know how appearance (of all things) became a
religion. The whole thing is so sick, people of all shades are speaking out and we will put
this crazy idea down. Here, we marry across all appearances. New people are often different
in appearance than parents. Woke will die of that alone. That's why we have an immigration
'problem' . People love our constitution and Declaration of Independence. People love that
they rule here, not the government. That's our creed and promise. Help protect it!!
VAERS data: "5,888 deaths", "19,597 hospitalizations", "43,891 urgent care", "58,800
office visits", "1,459 anaphylaxis", "1,737 Bell's palsy", "2,190 heart attacks" and "652
miscarriages". CDC says data is "unreliable". You choose who to believe.
WarrenLiz 16 hours ago
Over 15,472 dead from Jab in 27 EU countries, about half of Europe's 50 countries.
The EudraVigilance database reports that through June 19, 2021 there are 15,472 deaths
and 1,509,266 injuries reported following injections of four experimental COVID-19
shots:
The answer to Carlson's question is because.. it's a money grabbing death cult!.
Natural immun system is destroyed... just wait till next flu season or the next virus
they relase and see what death numbers we see!
racing_flowers 17 hours ago
Isn't it curious that the 3 big pharma Corps (think Vacc pushers) and the big 2 MSM
Corps are BOTH controlled by Blackrock Partners Hedge Fund...
Nona Yobiznes 18 hours ago remove link
Them going after the children makes me deeply suspicious. Nobody under 50, unless
they're made of blubber, dies from this. In 2020, there was practically zero excess death
for people younger than 70 years old in Sweden. These are their official statistics. For
the vast majority of people it's basically a flu you get for a couple days and you're over
it. What the **** is all this about? If the vaccine is only really good for preventing
hospitalizations, and doesn't stop you from spreading or from catching variants, what in
the hell are we giving kids vaccines when they are more likely to die from the regular flu?
It's freaky, and it stinks.
As oil price stays above $70/barrel, most shale will come back. However the max reached by
USA was 13,100 million b/d. So whether World will hit 75 million b/d is doubtful. But NGL keeps
increasing because of increase in natgas output. Besides nearly 6 million b/d that comes from
CTL, GTL and bio-fuels will keep overall oil consumption above 100 million b/d.
Despite rapid increase in electric vehicles, oil will hold above 100 minion b/d mark.
REPLYHOLE IN HEAD IGNORED06/20/2021
at 1:34 pm
Ted , demand is governed by price and availability . Demand of 100 mbpd is immaterial if the
supply is only 80mbpd . Shale is not coming back . USA has peaked . Period . The peak in shale
was (is) the peak of oil production in USA . I have commented earlier that " all liquids " is
BS . The 6mbpd of NGPL ,CTL , GTL etc. are just " fill in the blanks " . These are not
transportation fuels and have 65% of the BTU of crude . HICKORY IGNORED 06/20/2021
at 2:30 pm
Hole- Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids are nothing to belittle. It is a lot of energy-
"HGLs accounted for over a quarter of total U.S. petroleum products output in 2018"
NGL has about 70% of the energy content of a barrel of crude. In addition most uses for HGLs
are not for transportation which is the the main use for crude plus condensate.
As Ron has said we don't count bottled gas. I would say NGL should be put in a basket with
natural gas.
Or we could define liquid petroleum as that which is a liquid at 1 atmosphere pressure and
25C aka STP.
By that standard only pentanes plus would qualify, which makes sense as it is essentially
condensate, the proportion of pentanes plus in the US NGL mix is less than 12% by volume, 2020
data (582
kbpd). RON PATTERSON IGNORED06/21/2021
at 4:01 pm
I am expecting prices a lot higher in 2022. An average of $85 would not shock me at all.
They will be higher because oil production will not fully recover to the 2019 level as everyone
expects it to.
The EIA Short Term Outlook has production fully recovered by the end of 2022 and total
liquids about one million barrels per day higher for non-OPEC.
OPEC officials heard from industry experts that US oil output growth will likely remain
limited in 2021 despite rising prices,
While there was general agreement on limited US supply growth this year, an industry source
said for 2022 forecasts ranged from growth of 500,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd
The forecasts for 2021 were for average output to be close to 200 kb/d. The 1.3 Mb/d
prediction for 2022 is out to lunch. The 500 kb/d has a chance but I think the average will be
closer to 350 kb/d.
I think WTI will be $85 plus/minus $5 in mid 2022. This will push the average price of
gasoline slightly above $3/gal. As for output, the US will add somewhere close to 300 kb/d
average in 2022 over 2021. I am betting on some restraint on the part of the drillers. The
Permian is the pivotal basin and I see that the early results for 2021 wells are not as good as
2020.
The big unknown for me is: What is a sustainable price for WTI, $100? At what point does
gasoline suck too much money out of the economy. Once the economy starts to slow, oil demand
will slow. We can all remember 2008.
If WTI crosses $90, OPEC might start to worry. However will they have the spare capacity to
try to control it? Six months from now we can revise our estimates.
What do you mean by confirmation? Do you mean they will confirm that the peak was 2018-2019?
If so, I cannot agree. No, there will be deniers all the way down. There is something about the
human psyche that just cannot accept reality... MATT MUSHALIK IGNORED06/19/2021
at 8:57 pm
Thanks for continuing to monitor crude oil production. As of now, we are back to 2005
levels!
In the later years of an abusive relationship I was in, my abuser had become so confident in
how mentally caged he had me that he'd start overtly telling me what he is and what he was
doing. He flat-out told me he was a sociopath and a manipulator, trusting that I was so
submitted to his will by that point that I'd gaslight myself into reframing those statements in
a sympathetic light. Toward the end one time he told me "I am going to rape you," and then he
did, and then he talked about it to some friends trusting that I'd run perception management on
it for him.
The better he got at psychologically twisting me up in knots and the more submitted I
became, the more open he'd be about it. He seemed to enjoy doing this, taking a kind of
exhibitionistic delight in showing off his accomplishments at crushing me as a person, both to
others and to me. Like it was his art, and he wanted it to have an audience to appreciate
it.
I was reminded of this while watching a recent Fox News appearance by Glenn Greenwald where he
made an observation we've discussed here
previously about the way the CIA used to have to infiltrate the media, but now just openly
has US intelligence veterans in mainstream media punditry positions managing public
perception.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/jU58mrEpPvU
"If you go and Google, and I hope your viewers do, Operation Mockingbird, what you will
find is that during the Cold War these agencies used to plot how to clandestinely manipulate
the news media to disseminate propaganda to the American population," Greenwald
said .
"They used to try to do it secretly. They don't even do it secretly anymore. They don't
need Operation Mockingbird. They literally put John Brennan who works for NBC and James
Clapper who works for CNN and tons of FBI agents right on the payroll of these news
organizations. They now shape the news openly to manipulate and to deceive the American
population."
In 1977 Carl Bernstein published an article titled " The CIA and the Media " reporting
that the CIA had
covertly infiltrated America's most influential news outlets and had over 400 reporters who
it considered assets in a program known as
Operation Mockingbird . It was a major scandal, and rightly so. The news media are meant to
report truthfully about what happens in the world, not manipulate public perception to suit the
agendas of spooks and warmongers.
Nowadays the CIA collaboration happens right out in the open, and the public is too
brainwashed and gaslit to even recognize this as scandalous. Immensely influential outlets like
The New York Times uncritically pass on CIA disinfo which is then spun as fact by cable news
pundits . The sole owner of The Washington Post is a CIA contractor ,
and WaPo has never once disclosed this conflict of interest when reporting on US intelligence
agencies per standard journalistic protocol. Mass media outlets
now openly employ intelligence agency veterans like John Brennan, James Clapper,
Chuck Rosenberg, Michael Hayden, Frank Figliuzzi, Fran Townsend, Stephen Hall, Samantha
Vinograd, Andrew McCabe, Josh Campbell, Asha Rangappa, Phil Mudd, James Gagliano, Jeremy Bash,
Susan Hennessey, Ned Price and Rick Francona, as are known
CIA assets like NBC's Ken Dilanian, as are
CIA interns like Anderson Cooper and CIA applicants like
Tucker Carlson.
They're just rubbing it in our faces now. Like they're showing off.
And that's just the media. We also see this flaunting behavior exhibited in the US
government-funded National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a propaganda operation geared at
sabotaging foreign governments not aligned with the US which according to its own founding
officials was set up to do overtly what the CIA used to do covertly. The late author and
commentator William Blum
makes this clear :
[I]n 1983, the National Endowment for Democracy was set up to "support democratic
institutions throughout the world through private, nongovernmental efforts". Notice the
"nongovernmental"" part of the image, part of the myth. In actuality, virtually every penny
of its funding comes from the federal government, as is clearly indicated in the financial
statement in each issue of its annual report. NED likes to refer to itself as an NGO
(Non-governmental organization) because this helps to maintain a certain credibility abroad
that an official US government agency might not have. But NGO is the wrong category. NED is a
GO.
"We should not have to do this kind of work covertly," said Carl Gershman in 1986, while
he was president of the Endowment. "It would be terrible for democratic groups around the
world to be seen as subsidized by the C.I.A. We saw that in the 60's, and that's why it has
been discontinued. We have not had the capability of doing this, and that's why the endowment
was created."
And Allen Weinstein, who helped draft the legislation establishing NED, declared in 1991:
"A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA."
In effect, the CIA has been laundering money through NED.
We see NED's fingerprints all over pretty much any situation where the western power
alliance needs to manage public perception about a CIA-targeted government, from Russia to
Hong
Kong to Xinjiang to the
imperial propaganda operation known as Bellingcat.
Hell, intelligence insiders are just openly running for office now. In an article titled "
The CIA
Democrats in the 2020 elections ", World Socialist Website documented the many veterans of
the US intelligence cartel who ran in elections across America in 2018 and 2020:
"In the course of the 2018 elections, a large group of former military-intelligence
operatives entered capitalist politics as candidates seeking the Democratic Party nomination
in 50 congressional seats" nearly half the seats where the Democrats were targeting
Republican incumbents or open seats created by Republican retirements. Some 30 of these
candidates won primary contests and became the Democratic candidates in the November 2018
election, and 11 of them won the general election, more than one quarter of the 40 previously
Republican-held seats captured by the Democrats as they took control of the House of
Representatives. In 2020, the intervention of the CIA Democrats continues on what is arguably
an equally significant scale."
So they're just getting more and more brazen the more confident they feel about how
propaganda-addled and submissive the population has become. They're laying more and more of
their cards on the table. Soon the CIA will just be openly selling narcotics door to door like
Girl Scout cookies.
Or maybe not. I said my ex got more and more overt about his abuses in the later years of
our relationship because those were the later years. I did eventually expand my own
consciousness of my own inner workings enough to clear the fears and unexamined beliefs I had
that he was using as hooks to manipulate me. Maybe, as humanity's consciousness continues to
expand , the same will happen for the people and their abusive relationship with the
CIA.
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By Joe Carroll and Kevin Crowley
June 21, 2021, 3:30 PM EDT Updated on June 21, 2021, 4:00 PM EDT
Performance-improvement program will involve 5%-10% annually
Reviews are separate from sweeping job cuts disclosed in 2020
Exxon Mobil Corp. is preparing to reduce headcount at its U.S. offices by between 5% and 10%
annually for the next three to five years by using its performance-evaluation system to suss
out low performers, according to people familiar with the matter.
The cuts will target the lowest-rated employees relative to peers, and for that reason will
not be characterized as layoffs, the people said, asking not to be identified because the
information isn't public. While such workers are typically put on a so-called performance
improvement plan, many are expected to eventually leave on their own. This year's evaluation is
happening now but affected employees have not yet been notified, the people said.
"Our annual performance assessment process has been occurring over the last several months,"
Exxon spokesman Casey Norton said in an email. "Where employees are not contributing to their
highest ability, they may need to participate in an improvement plan. This is an annual process
which has been in place for many years, and it is meant to improve performance. This process is
unrelated to workforce reduction plans."
The plan is separate from Exxon's announcement last year that it will cut 14,000 jobs
worldwide by 2022, and it would extend reductions well beyond that original time frame. It's a
tumultuous time for Exxon, which is still grappling with the fallout from last month's annual
meeting, when shareholders rebuffed top management and replaced a quarter of the company's
board over climate and financial concerns.
Exxon had 72,000 employees globally at the end of last year, of which 40% worked in the
U.S., according to a company filing.
White-Collar Jobs
Several high-profile traders have also left in the last few weeks. While the
performance-review process mostly applies to white-collar jobs in areas such as engineering,
finance and project management, there's no suggestion the trading departures were related to
the review program.
Exxon's other cost-cutting initiatives have included suspending bonuses and halting
employee-contribution matches to 401k savings plans as the pandemic crushed demand for crude,
saddling the company with a record annual loss.
International crude prices have surged 44% this year to almost $75 a barrel, improving
Exxon's financial position markedly. Still, the supermajor has some way to go to pay down debts
accumulated during 2020's market collapse. A smaller and more efficient workforce is key to
further improvements.
Exxon achieved $3 billion of annual "structural cost reductions" in 2020 and will continue
to make savings through 2023, Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said at the annual meeting
in May.
"We've got additional work to continue to take advantage of the new organization and find
opportunities to reduce our costs," Woods said.
Exxon's shares rose 3.6% to $62.59 at the close in New York trading amid a broad rally in
energy stocks on stronger oil prices.
Frac Sand Baroness @sand_frac · Jun 16 There is
currently a @chevron well
uncontrollably blowing out on my land that I live and raise cattle on in West Texas. It is
injecting super concentrated brine and benzene into my water supply. The casing (metal pipe) is
so corroded that Chevron literally cannot re plug it. 5.7K views 0:01 / 0:06 3 60 117
Frac Sand Baroness @sand_frac
· Jun 16 More concerningly, this
well was plugged and abandoned (P&A) in 1995. For those not in the oil industry, a P&A
blowout is extremely rare. A plugged well is exactly that: plugged. It is filled with concrete
plugs, and considered to be permanently deactivated and safe. 2 7 67 Frac Sand Baroness @sand_frac · Jun 16 We've had
issues with Chevron before. In 2002, we flushed a toilet at the ranch house (approximately 1.5
miles south of the blowout) and crude oil bubbled up. The leak source was never fully
identified, and we shut in that water well. 2 6 66 Frac Sand Baroness @sand_frac · Jun 16 Chevron had
operations nearby, so drilled water monitoring wells. These monitoring wells identified a crude
oil plume in the groundwater, and also found a large salt water plume. See Texas Railroad
Commission OCP #08-2423. Again, we never found the source. 1 5 57 Frac Sand Baroness @sand_frac · Jun 16 This
required Chevron to provide an annual water test result to the landowners (me). Of course, they
didn't comply from 2007 through 2013. We never heard about this, and thought our water was safe
again.
Meme-based investing 'is a totally nihilistic parody of actual investing,' says Jeremy Grantham, who called 3 stock-market
bubbles
Last Updated: June 24, 2021 at 7:18 p.m. ET
First
Published: June 24, 2021 at 3:16 p.m. ET
By
Mark DeCambre
18
'This is it guys, the biggest U.S. fantasy trip of all time,' says Grantham
Jeremy Grantham, founder of GMO, speaks in 2012 in Oxford, England
GETTY
IMAGES
"'Meme' investing -- the idea that something is worth investing in, or rather gambling on, simply because it is funny --
has become commonplace. It's a totally nihilistic parody of actual investing. This is it guys, the biggest U.S. fantasy
trip of all time."
That's Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist at Boston-based money manager Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo
& Co., in a recent interview with
Bloomberg
News
, lamenting the state of an investment world that has prominently featured the emergence of meme-linked trading in
stocks like GameStop Corp.
GME,
-1.32%
,
AMC
Entertainment Holdings
AMC,
-4.66%
and
BlackBerry Ltd.
BB,
-4.42%
,
among
others.
Grantham noted that the meme cryptocurrency dogecoin
DOGEUSD,
-1.74%
is
"worth billions in the market and not even pretending to be [a] serious [investment]."
"Dogecoin was created as a joke to make fun of cryptocurrencies being worthless, and, not only has it taken off, but it's
such a success that second-level joke cryptocurrencies making fun of dogecoin have gone to multibillion-dollar valuations,"
he said.
Indeed, AMC Entertainment is up over 2,500% in 2021 thus far; GameStop has gained over 1,000% in the year to date; dogecoin
is up by about 5,000%, despite a precipitous drop; and BlackBerry shares are up over 90% so far this year.
By comparison, traditional assets have seen more mundane returns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.69%
is
up a more than respectable 12% so far in 2021, while the S&P 500
SPX,
+0.33%
has
returned over 13% in the year to date and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.06%
has
made a powerful comeback in June to achieve a gain of nearly 12% in the first six months of the year.
Grantham views the social-media-driven meme-stock moves as concerning and indicative of bubbles percolating in financial
markets that will ultimately need to be contended with.
Grantham is worth paying attention to due to his prescient calls over the years. He said that stocks were overvalued in
2000 and again in 2007, anticipating subsequent market downturns,
the
Wall Street Journal reports
. Grantham also signaled that elements of the financial market had become unmoored from
reality leading up to the 2008–09 financial crisis.
However, his bearishness thus far hasn't helped his core investment strategies, amid a relentless run-up in stocks, be they
traditional or meme. The Nasdaq Composite has already put in back-to-back record closes this week and was aiming for a 17th
record finish on Thursday, while the S&P 500 index was eyeing a record of its own.
The US is not capitalist. There are no "capitalist powers." There are only managerial
states. Read Orwell who, yes, was a socialist.
The US was overtaken by ex-Trotskyites in the form of Neocons, eg. Irving Kristol. They
redefined the US from a nation-state into an ideological state, as the Soviet Union had been.
But we do not have any particular ideology here; the ideology is always changing.
The US empire does not serve the interests of the American people, you'll agree. But it's
not as simple as "capitalism." These ideological battles are theatre. They are not the real
battles. They are pretend religions, like sports teams, which motivate and justify war for
two different elites.
Read James Burnham, another ex-Trotskyite, on Machiavellians and, separately, on the
managerial state. However, Burnham became something akin to a Neocon; so, certainly, don't
come to the same conclusions as he did.
The US is not capitalist. There are no "capitalist powers." There are only managerial
states. Read Orwell who, yes, was a socialist.
Posted by: Weaver | Jun 22 2021 19:35 utc | 15
This is a rather strange interpretation. The power of the managers stems fro the power of
large active shareholders, while the majority of shares may be passively owned by middle
class in the form of retirement savings. As it was explained: "Contrary to popular beliefs,
there are no bulls and bears on Wall Street, but sheep and wolves. And the money is not made
by the bah bah crowd", followed by the distinction between "smart money" and the rest of
investors. The financial games that we discussed in the case of Boeing may seem stupid in
terms of "maximizing long term stock value", but excellent for providing gains for active
investors who got artificial run-up in stock prices followed by selling to the "bah bah
crowd".
One of the biggest pieces of news for Royal Dutch Shell recently has been the Dutch court
ruling that forces them to make a larger 45% emissions reduction by 2030.
Despite this sounding very transformation, considering the geological and economic
reality of their current situation, it actually does not significantly change their underlying
future.
Their reserve life is only sitting at just above seven years and thus even if they wished
to maintain their fossil fuel production, they already required significant investments before
2030.
SNIP You Cannot Fight Geology
Upon reviewing their reserves, it may initially sound very impressive to hear that their
oil and gas reserves currently stand at slightly over nine billion barrels of oil equivalent.
Although in reality this actually sits rather low when compared to their annual production
during 2020 of 1.239b barrels of oil equivalent. This effectively only leaves their reserve
life at just above seven years, which is not particularly long and thus means that their fossil
fuel production would already begin shrinking dramatically by the latter half of this decade.
Admittedly they would likely continue replacing a portion of their oil and gas reserves in the
future but their current production rate would still see them running very low by 2030 if
approximately half were replaced per annum, as the graph included below displays.
There are two charts in this article. The second on titled: Oil Discoveries Lowest Since
1847 is alarming. STEPHEN HREN IGNORED06/17/2021 at 8:25 am
Hi Ron, any thoughts on why Shell would bag their operations in the Permian while they are
also running low on reserves everywhere else? Seems like they would be holding on to every
scrap of producing land they could. Unless one of two things: 1) they are making a serious
attempt to transition to a low carbon energy company; and/or 2) their holdings in the Permian
are worth squat REPLYRON PATTERSON IGNORED06/17/2021 at
9:22 am
NEW YORK/HOUSTON, June 15 (Reuters) – A cadre of oil companies, seeing continued
profits in shale, are mulling Royal Dutch Shell's (RDSa.L) holdings in the largest U.S. oil
field as the European giant considers an exit from the Permian Basin, according to market
experts.
The potential sale of Shell's Permian holdings, located in Texas, would be a litmus test
of whether rivals are willing to bet on shale's profitability through the energy transition to
reduce carbon emissions.
Shell would follow in the footsteps of other producers, including Equinor (EQNR.OL)
and Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N) that have shed shale assets this year, looking to cut debt and
reduce carbon output in the face of investor pressure.
Shell, like a lot of other companies, sees shale assets as a very low profit, or even a
losing proposition. They can take the money from the sale, reduce their debt, and reduce carbon
emissions of their company in one fell swoop. More from the article:
Against this backdrop, estimates for Shell's acreage run from $7 billion to over $10
billion, the latter implying a valuation of almost $40,000 an acre.
That would be in line with the per-acre price Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.N) paid for
DoublePoint Energy in April, the most costly deal since a 2014-2016 rush by producers to grab
positions in the Permian.
Most Permian deals this year have closed between $7,000 and $12,000 per acre, said
Andrew Dittmar, senior mergers and acquisitions analyst at data provider Enverus.
If they can get $40,000 per acre they have found a greater fool to offload their acreage on.
HICKORY IGNORED06/17/2021 at 9:44 am
Something about that doesn't make sense. The need or desire to downsize is likely due to an
inability to project making profit on the shale assets rather than any concern over a carbon
footprint- I don't believe they are in business to win any kind of beauty contest. REPLYROGER
IGNORED06/17/2021 at 8:17 pm
"Shell's position as a major European enterprise has become untenable. The Spar had gained a
symbolic significance out of all proportion to its environmental effect. In consequence, Shell
companies were faced with increasingly intense public criticism, mostly in Continental northern
Europe. Many politicians and ministers were openly hostile and several called for consumer
boycotts. There was violence against Shell service stations, accompanied by threats to Shell
staff."
Things are a little different for European companies I recall "Greenpeace sympathizers"
fire-bombed a gas station back then; in light of what has transpired in the US recently who is
to say it couldn't happen again?
Shell is well aware of peak oil, and can't solve the problem. So, what would you have them
do? REPLYKOLBEINIH IGNORED06/17/2021 at 1:26 pm
"Shell would follow in the footsteps of other producers, including Equinor (EQNR.OL) and
Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N) that have shed shale assets this year, looking to cut debt and
reduce carbon output in the face of investor pressure."
I don't think it has anything to do with shale oil specifically. For Equinor it has to do
with that it can draw on competence in Norway in the harsh offshore environment in the North
Sea. Floating offshore wind power is where Equinor is world leading with technology and know
how; now about to be utilised in the North Sea, Japan, US East coast and California. It is not
more economical than ground based offshore wind mills, but has some advantages when it comes to
lifecycle costs. For one, the wind mills can be placed in optimal wind condition areas not in
the way of fishing resources. The big size of wind mills will not cause problems (the height
and diameter of the blades are necessary to capture enough wind energy). And also the wind
mills can be more easily moved to land and recycled, e.g. the steel. Wear and tear offshore is
on the minus side.
Usually the blades are made of carbon fiber to make it lighter, but it can also be made of
aluminum in the future with lower efficiency.
Shell is just now investing in North Sea South II in Norway for ground based offshore mill
farms together with BP. To make the North Sea work with the enormous amount of wind power
coming online and connection cables everywhere is very serious business and just a priority.
Shale oil is too much of a distraction for Shell and Equinor, not even within their core
competence area. REPLYJAY
WOODS IGNORED06/18/2021 at 7:50 am
Shell was ordered by a Dutch court to cut by 45%. Of course, they will cut their "losers"
first.
The chart is old and was published in 2016 by Wood Mackenzie and there is no data for 2016.
It also leaves out the discovery of Ghawar in 1948, first bar/spike. I have not seen any
updates since then. Not sure if Guyana had been discovered in 2016. The original is
attached.
Ironically, the wave of ESG investing in global energy markets may lead to much higher
oil prices as a serious lack of capital expenditure on new fossil fuels dries up just as demand
for crude continues to grow
Pressure from investors, tighter emissions regulation from governments, and public
protests against their business have become more or less the new normal for oil companies. What
the world -- or at least the most affluent parts of it -- seem to want from the oil industry is
to stop being the oil industry.
Many investors are buying into this pressure. ESG investing is all the rage, and
sustainable ETFs are popping up like mushrooms after a rain. But some investors are taking a
different approach. They are betting on oil. Because what many in the pressure camp seem to
underestimate is the fact that the supply of oil is not the only element of the oil
equation.
"Imagine Shell decided to stop selling petrol and diesel today," the supermajor's CEO Ben
van Beurden wrote in a LinkedIn post earlier this month. "This would certainly cut Shell's
carbon emissions. But it would not help the world one bit. Demand for fuel would not change.
People would fill up their cars and delivery trucks at other service stations."
Van Beurden was commenting on a Dutch court's ruling that environmentalists hailed as a
landmark decision, ordering Shell to reduce its emissions footprint by 45 percent from 2019
levels by 2030.
Ironically, the wave of ESG investing in global energy markets may lead to much higher
oil prices as a serious lack of capital expenditure on new fossil fuels dries up just as demand
for crude continues to grow
Pressure from investors, tighter emissions regulation from governments, and public
protests against their business have become more or less the new normal for oil companies. What
the world -- or at least the most affluent parts of it -- seem to want from the oil industry is
to stop being the oil industry.
Many investors are buying into this pressure. ESG investing is all the rage, and
sustainable ETFs are popping up like mushrooms after a rain. But some investors are taking a
different approach. They are betting on oil. Because what many in the pressure camp seem to
underestimate is the fact that the supply of oil is not the only element of the oil
equation.
"Imagine Shell decided to stop selling petrol and diesel today," the supermajor's CEO Ben
van Beurden wrote in a LinkedIn post earlier this month. "This would certainly cut Shell's
carbon emissions. But it would not help the world one bit. Demand for fuel would not change.
People would fill up their cars and delivery trucks at other service stations."
Van Beurden was commenting on a Dutch court's ruling that environmentalists hailed as a
landmark decision, ordering Shell to reduce its emissions footprint by 45 percent from 2019
levels by 2030.REPLYHICKORY IGNORED06/18/2021 at 9:37 am
Cute headline.
'Energy Transition Fad'
Wrong terminology.
Its a shift that has barely started.
The global economy isn't going to just sit around while fossil fuel sources go into decline,
despite how poorly large human organizations perform in the job of planning.
The effort is very weak to this point.
Poor grasp of the situation.
It will be grasped eventually, and then the effort will be strong.
Fad no. REPLY likbez
06/22/2021 at 4:10 pm
There is a possibility of Seneca cliff as major Western countries probably will not be able to
adapt to dramatically shirking of oil supply. That raises the question of the size of Earth
population which is sustainable without "cheap oil" and several other interesting questions
about the destiny of the current civilization and neoliberalism. Which is already in crisis
since 2008 and the USA economy is in "secular stagnation" mode since the same date. The USA
standard of living is partially based on cheap oil and when cheap oil is gone the crisis of
neoliberalism will probably became more acute. It is difficult to predict what forms it will
take but Trump in the past and the current woke movement are two examples of mal-adaptation to
the crisis of neoliberalism in the USA and loss of legitimacy of neoliberal elite (woke
movement=, which is supported by Dems and several major companies, is the attempt to switch the
attention from this issue -- "look squirrel") I suspect this that current "irrational
exuberance" about EV among the neoliberal elite and upper middle class (especially techno
hamsters of Silicon Valley) will play a bad joke with the USA. Prols can't care less about this
fashion and will stick to tried and true combustion engine cars, especially with the current
exorbitant prices on EV.
Traders are addicted to trading, much like murderers fixate on murdering. The traders
noticed a slight change in the Fed's tone and sold anything tied to inflation. They whacked
gold good. Then they went after the other commodities. When they were done there, they went
after value stocks, before finishing the week by blasting a bunch of cyclical names.
25 play_arrow
ted41776 5 hours ago
the only kind of ism that has exist is sociopathism
they always end up at the top of any power pyramid and make the rules that apply to all
others but not them
same as it always was and same as it always will be
NoDebt 4 hours ago
Traders are addicted to trading, much like murderers fixate on murdering
A line I wish I had come up with.
lambda PREMIUM 4 hours ago
This was already modeled and formalized: The Gambler Fallacy.
(cointelegraph.com)
45BeauHD on Monday June 21,
2021 @05:20PM from the not-dog-friendly dept. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of
Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, took a jab at Dogecoin (DOGE) last week by referring
to the memecoin as a Ponzi scheme , upping his rhetoric against cryptocurrencies.
Cointelegraph reports: Kashkari's comments were in response to a LinkedIn poll by Paul
Grewal, the chief legal officer and corporate secretary of Coinbase, who
asked his connections about the proper way to pronounce "Doge." "The right pronunciation is
pon-zi," Kashkari quipped.
This isn't the first time Kashkari has taken aim at cryptocurrencies. In February 2020,
he said digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC) lack the basic tenants of a stable currency and
praised the Securities and Exchange Commission for "cracking down" on initial coin offerings.
Kashkari is not a member of this year's Federal Open Market Committee, the group responsible
for setting United States monetary policy. The Minneapolis branch of the Fed will serve as an
alternate FOMC member in 2022 before rotating back onto the committee as a voting member in
2023.
While Alphabet Class A and Facebook shares are up 37% and 21%, respectively, other members
of the group have weighed on the market. Amazon shares are up 7.1% in 2021, lagging behind the
11% rise in the benchmark S&P 500. Apple and Netflix have fared even worse, down 1.7% and
7.4% for the year.
... ... ...
For much of 2020, a badly constricted economy pushed investors toward stocks -- like the
FAANG names -- whose businesses were less affected and whose future growth became even more
alluring with the drop in interest rates. The Russell 1000 Growth Index advanced 37% for the
year, while the Russell 1000 Value Index eked out a 0.1% gain -- the largest annual performance
gap between the two style benchmarks in FactSet data going back to 1979.
Big tech stocks were among the leaders of that rally. Apple shares climbed 81% in 2020 --
last August becoming the first U.S. public company to
surpass $2 trillion in market value -- while Amazon rose 76% and Netflix gained 67%.
Facebook added 33% for the year, and Alphabet 31%.
These companies are too big and too powerful. I hope for anti-trust legislation that cuts
them down to size. The tech oligarchs have too much influence on what Americans think and do.
They are a direct threat to our democracy. I hope more Americans will decide to support
smaller companies (especially local stores), putting conviction ahead of convenience.
J Pate
Google and Amazon has no near peer competitors. Netflix and Apple do. My family got rid of
Netflix last year and now have Hulu. There is a ton of free steaming sites also. We never
missed Netflix.
Jay Urbain
"While Alphabet Class A and Facebook shares are up 37% and 21%, respectively, other members
of the group have weighed on the market. Amazon shares are up 7.1% in 2021, lagging behind
the 11% rise in the benchmark S&P 500. Apple and Netflix have fared even worse, down 1.7%
and 7.4% for the year."
Time to take another look at AMZN and AAPL.
Jon Tannen
Gasp! So after breathtaking rises for Apple and Netflix stocks, they're merely flat these
days? Not up 30% this month? Uh-oh! Sound the alarms! Someone please tell the writer that
stocks are not a straight diagonal to the sky. [She's actually wrong about Apple's valuation
being down this year, according to WSJ's very charts! The price is 130 now vs. 129 on Jan 4.
But hey, she's obliged to come up with an article this week.]
This all reminds me of analyst Dan Niles coming on CNBC for years and proclaiming he's
shorting Apple. Every few months: "I'm shorting Apple." "I'm shorting Apple." Again and again
and again. The guy must be broke. [Of course, no one calls him out about it.]
Marshall Dillon
Amazon? Not for me. I have switched most of my online buying to Walmart and local stores.
Amazon needs to get out of politics and stop suppressing free speech, much like the WSJ
moderators.
SACHIN SHARMA
This entire article is misleading. Choosing 2020 as a base year to compare this group of
stocks leaves out the important context of what happened the prior ten years, when FB and
GOOGL underperformed vs APPL, NFLX, AMZN. A mean reversion within this group because money
managers need to justify their existence could be the simple explanation. Also, how much of
the Russel growth fund performance came from AMC and GME, those bell weather companies?
In IT corporate honchos shamelessly put more then a dozen of very specific skills into the
position rescription and want a cog that hit that exactly. they are not interested in IQ, ability
to learn and such things. that want already train person for the position to fill, so that have
zero need to train this persn and they expect that he will work productively from the day
one.
But corporate elites are loudly complaining that the sky is falling -- not because of a
real labor shortage, but because workers are less likely now to accept low-wage jobs.
Duh. This is so blindingly obvious, but NC is the only place that seems to mention this
fact.
Here in the UK, the outmigration of marginally paid workers from Eastern Europe and the
resultant "labour shortage" triggered by Brexit has made it abundantly clear that Blair's
change to open borders was not from any idealistic considerations but as a way of importing
easily exploited labor.
Business leaders quoted in the the tsunami of hand-wringing MSM articles about the current
catastrophe are offering such helpful solutions as allowing housekeepers to use pools and
gyms in off hours, free meals to waiters, etc. Anything but a living wage.
" I don't actually see any untruths to the GOP talking points. "
"" Workers are less likely to accept a job while receiving Gov't benefits" and "workers are
less likely to accept low wage crappy jobs ".
Well,if u can survive on a $300/week program that ends after several weeks pass,bless u.
No one else in America can. That's a $7.50 hr full time "summer job" with no pension or
medical benefits that teenagers with no dependents,few bills n maintenance issues might be
interested in; adults with adult responsibilities,no way. That so called RepubliCons, the
"economics experts", can make such a fraudulent claim n anyone out of elementary school
believes it has a quantum particle of reality or value is . well I'll just say a sad n
unbelievable situation.
They get 300 dollars plus regular UI. They can also get Medicaid and CHIP, or if they are
still making too much they are eligible for Obamacare exchange. Plus they're eligible for
SNAP and housing vouchers
There is one significant fallacy in this article: The author conflates Republican
opposition to enhanced benefits with opposition to unemployment benefits overall.
I very much stand with labour over business on most (probably all) points, but the
Republican argument is to end the enhanced benefits in most cases – Not to abolish
unemployment assistance. They believe the role of government is to step in to help pay basic
bills in the event of unemployment, but oppose the current higher level of benefit due to the
market distortions it causes (Hence the appearance of the term 'labour shortage'.)
I agree that it basically forces mcdonalds et al to up their wages if they want to do
business, which should be a positive for society, but I find it unlikely that the author
could have unintentionally mistunderstood the argument on such a fundamental level, and all
it does is try to drive a wedge further between each side of the argument.
Anyone that believes that workers supported their jobs being sent overseas is either
demented or delusional or suffers from a mental hernia. The same goes for the common working
stiffs supporting massive immigration to help drive down their ability to demand a livable
wage.
American labor has been sold down the river by the International Labor Leaders,
politicians and the oligarchy of US corporate CEO's.
======
Got a new hip recently. Do your P.T., take it easy, follow the warnings of what not to do
until you heal and you should discover that decades feel like they are lifted off your
shoulders.
Sierra,
You've made a very interesting point that actually never occurred to me and one in which I
never seen fully examined.
Exploiting labour and outsourcing it are two sides of the same coin with the same goal in
mind, diverting revenue streams into the C-suite and rentier class.
Obviously you cannot outsource most of the workers in the hospitality industry or the
non-virtual aspects of world's oldest profession, but a lot of the tech industry and the
virtual aspects of the latter are very amenable to being shipped overseas.
Immigrants are extremely visible and an easy target, while outsourcing is essentially an
impossible to contain concept that creates real world hardship.
Dear NC readers, do you know of any studies comparing and contrasting the economic impact of
immigration and/or limiting it and outsourcing?
Indeed, economists and analysts have gotten used to presenting facts from the
perspective of private employers and their lobbyists.
You are acting if economists and lobbyists are separate groups, as opposed to largely a
subset thereof. Funny how a field entirely based on the study of incentives claims incentives
don't distort their policy prescriptions, isn't it?
As for low-paid jobs, they are traditionally the last resort of immigrants and other
marginalized populations, but the anti-immigration push that began under Obama, and
enthusiastically continued by Trump and Biden, has perfectly predictable consequences.
One factor not mentioned is many free-riding businesses refuse to pay for training, then
wonder why there are no trained workers to hire.
Now, there are definitely fields where there is a genuine and deliberate labor shortage.
Usually white-collar credentialed professions like medical doctors and the AMA cartel.
Economics is not based on incentives. That's behavioral economics. I hate to quote Larry
Summers, but this is Summers on financial economics:
Ketchup economists reject out of hand much of this research on the ketchup market. They
believe that the data used is based on almost meaningless accounting information and are
quick to point out that concepts such as costs of production vary across firms and are not
accurately measurable in any event. they believe that ketchup transactions prices are the
only hard data worth studying. Nonetheless ketchup economists have an impressive research
program, focusing on the scope for excess opportunities in the ketchup market. They have
shown that two quart bottles of ketchup invariably sell for twice as much as one quart
bottles of ketchup except for deviations traceable to transaction costs, and that one
cannot get a bargain on ketchup by buying and combining ingredients once one takes account
of transaction costs. Nor are there gains to be had from storing ketchup, or mixing
together different quality ketchups and selling the resulting product. Indeed, most ketchup
economists regard the efficiency of the ketchup market as the best established fact in
empirical economics.
Happy to see you back at a keyboard, and hoping your recovery is progressing well. I had
the misfortune of spending two days in the hospitals while they got my blood chemistry
strightened out. Here's the kicker; the hospitalist, who I saw 3 times, submitted a bill for
a whopping $17,000. Just yesterday, the practice she works for submitted a bill that was
one-tenth her charges for the work she did, yet her bill is still sitting waiting to be
processed.
OMG, how horrible. HSS is a small hospital for a big city like NYC, only 205 beds and 25
operating rooms. No emergency room. They are not owned by PE and so I don't think play
outsourcing/markup games (they are very big on controlling quality, which you can't do if you
have to go through middlemen for staffing). Some of the MDs do that their own practices
within HSS but they are solo practitioners or small teams, which is not a model that you see
much of anywhere outside NYC
The last time I was hospitalized, all the hospitalists were in the employ of the hospital,
now they are in the employ of a nationwide hospitalist practice, which has all the smell of
private equity around it. I'm really beginning to think that a third party focusted on
healthcare might have a real shot at upsetting the political order – maybe it's time to
drag out your skunk party for 2024.
As for low-paid jobs, they are traditionally the last resort of immigrants and other
marginalized populations, but the anti-immigration push that began under Obama, and
enthusiastically continued by Trump and Biden, has perfectly predictable
consequences.
Well I'm sorry you can't find easily exploitable labor, except I'm not immigrants face the
same ridiculous costs, and weren't hispanic workers more heavily impacted by covid due
to those marginal jobs (I'll switch your dynamic to low wage workers , and
marginal jobs, thanks), so by your logic more should have been let in to die from
these marginal jobs? but yeah we need more PMC except we don't Now, there are definitely fields where there is a genuine and deliberate labor shortage.
Usually white-collar credentialed professions like medical doctors and the AMA
cartel."
Last I checked it was private equity, wall st and pharmaceutical companies and their
lobbyists that drive up costs so labor needs to charge more.
Wake up and smell the coffee.
How much of this is over specification on the part of employers in the ad for the job? We
want the perfect candidate who can do the job better than we can with no training .
OMG this is such a long-standing pet peeve! We've commented on this nonsense regularly.
Companies took the position that they don't have to train and now they are eating their
cooking.
The mismatch between job openings and job applicants is not just about wages.
In fact, if companies were willing to take a chance on people who didn't exactly match the
job requirements, the likely effect would be to raise the wages some of those that did not
qualify under the over exacting job requirements. [And likely paying these new employees less
than they had contemplated paying the perfect candidate.]
But that seems like someone making the hiring decision might, just possibly, be seen as
taking a risk.
At my empolyer we know we can't find any colleges that teach mainframe skills, so we bring
in graduates who are willing to learn those skills – we submit them to a 3-month
bootcamp and then there's a long period of mentorship under a senior person to their group
that has an opening. Since everybody and their dog are now moving headfirst into DevOps,
where all the tooling is in somewhat less ancient software, they get exposed using those
Eclipse/VScode-based tools and are able to come up to speed somewhat quicker. Still, no one
in corporate America dares to bite the bullet and re-platform their core systems with few
exceptions (SABRE) for fear of losing all the institutional knowledge that's in software,
rather than wetware (humans).
Just think what is happening right now with everyone holding an Indian outsourcing
contract. You don't have individual's cellphone numbers over in India, which would cost you
an arm and a leg to call, never mind what's going on in their facilities.
On the other hand, there's something to be said for employers not training their staffs.
In the SF Bay Area computer industry, employees and independent contractors alike continually
race to train themselves in the new technologies that seem to crop up like mushrooms after a
rain. Many companies train their customers–and charge them for it–before they'll
train their staffs. This is a principal reason there's a market for contractors. Training
oneself in new technologies lays a base for opportunities that don't appear if you spend a
decade in the same job (unless, like mainframe programming, your job is so old it's new). I
suppose this is a beneficial side of capitalism?
I get that you want experience for mid to senior level jobs but the experience
requirements for what are ostsensibly entry-level jobs have gotten absurd. The education
requirements have also gotten out of hand in some cases.
That being said, a lot of the shortages are in low-wage, part-time jobs so the issue isn't
necessarily ridiculous requirements, like you sometimes see for entry level white collar
jobs, but wages that are too low and awful working conditions.
How many people want to be treated like dirt–be it by customers, management, or
both–for not much more than minimum wage if they have other options?
A wage increase will help fill these jobs but there also needs to be a paradigm shift in
how employees are treated–the customer is not always right and allowing them to treat
employees in ways that would not be tolerated in other businesses, and certainly not in many
white-collar workplaces is a huge part of the problem and why these jobs have long had
high-turnover.
It never ends – when it was about immigrant labor under George B junior – I
think – the call was
-- - They do jobs that Americans won't -- or something to that effect.
It always bothered me that the sentence was never, in my mind, completed. It should have been
said
-- They do jobs that Americans won't do at that pay level. --
The tax system, economic system and higher education departments have been perverted by the
continuous bribery and endowments by the rentier class to our elected law makers and dept
heads for decades –
The creditor, debtor relationships distorted for eons.
The toll takers have never, in history, been in any higher level of mastery than they are
now.
It is not to throw out the constitution but, to throw out those who have perverted it.
The construction industry knows how to exploit immigrant labor, documented as well as
undocumented. I'm sure most peole born here refuse to work for the same wages.
The exploitation occurs on many levels. For small residential jobs, a lot of wage theft
occurs. For larger jobs, a lot of safety regs get ignored. When you have a population that
won't use the legal avenues available to other citizens to push back against abuse you can
get a lot done :/
When I go looking for a job if a degree isn't required I am very unlikely to pursue it
further. Same if the list of 'required' is overly detailed. I'm making assumptions in both of
these cases (that might not be correct) about pay, benefits, work environment, etc. and what
is actually going on with a job listing. Why? Chiefly my likelihood of actually getting a
reasonable offer. I expect either being seen as overqualified in the first case or the job
only being listed because of some requirement in the second.
I have to wonder if many places know how to hire. This is made much more difficult by
years of poorly written (maybe deceptive) job postings. You probably know many of the
phrases; flexible schedule, family ___, reliable transportation required, and so on. Its no
surprise if puffery doesn't bring back the drones.
If we're playing with statistics. How many of these posted job openings, how many
interviews did the companies offer v. how many offers were made until the position was
filled? If position remains open, has the company increased the base pay offer? guaranteed an
increased min. number of weekly hours? offered bonuses or increased benefits? How many times
has this same job opening using the original posting criteria been re-posted? Is this a real
single job opening that the company plans to fill in real time or just a posting that they
keep opening because they have high turnover? etc., etc., etc.
The real problem with this workers are lazy meme is that it is repeated and repeated all
year long on the local news from the viewpoint of business. It has filtered down to local
people. I hear them repeating what the local news said without giving it any critical
thought. Even those who say that we need unions and believe themselves to be on the side of
workers.
Ear wigs are good for businesses. Insidious for workers.
In the UK, in the days of Labor Strive, before Neo-liberalism , there was always newspaper
reports about "Labor Strife" and "bolshy workers." Never once did the press examine
Management had behaved and caused the workers to become "bolshy" – a direct reaction to
Management's attitudes and behavior, probably based on the worst attributes of the UK's class
system.
Definition: A bolshy person often argues and makes difficulties.
Management get the workers (Their Attitudes) it deserves.
I recommend reading "The Toyota Way" to explore a very successful management style.
This song is getting a probably getting more hits these days
Take this job and Shove It https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIjEauGiRLo
But I hear lots of businesses will close to to no labor, so when they close they can go work
for 7.25 an hour for one of their competitors who also needs laborors Solidarinosc!
If businesses are suffering, it's restaurants and small scale enterprise. The Covid
response was tailored to the needs of economy of scale mega biz. They likely knew multitides
of mom-n-pops would go away- and they have. But that's fine.
So if state governments can turn down federal unemployment supplements because they want
labor to go back to work for unlivable wages this means the federal government can do nothing
about it. When push comes to shove the question that must be settled is, Is it a human right
to receive employment assistance until a job is found that pays a livable wage? (Not even a
republican will actually say No). So then that puts all the stingy states on notice that
there is a human rights issue here. States will have the choice to either let businesses shut
down for lack of workers, or states can subsidize minimum wages and benefits. If states
choose, in desperation, to subsidize minimum wages, then the states can apply to the feds to
be compensated. The thing that is needed in the interim, between when the real standoff
starts and ends, is a safety net for workers who are being blocked by the state from
receiving unemployment benefits. I say call in the national guard. This is a human rights
issue.
The real exploitation happened when we allowed companies to delocalize, manufacture
product in China and sell it here with no strings attached.
James Goldsmith seems like a prophet now, he was so absolutely right.
Wow. The Clinton flack was insufferable. AND WRONG about pretty much everything. Goldsmith
was brilliant. I wasn't paying enough attention at he time, but how many high profile people
were making the arguments he was making?
I'm surprised that nobody has taken the opportunity to comment on how this discussion
shows how hypocritical Biden and the democrats were not to press for raising the minimum
wage.
The pretense (which they must have coached the "Senate scholar" on) was that raising the
minimum wage was not related to revenue (i.e., a revenue bill). But of course it is! Right
now, paying below-poverty wages enabled Walmart and other employers to make the government
pay part of their wage bill. Higher minimum wages would raise these government aid recipients
out of the poverty range, saving public revenue.
That is so obvious that the failure of the Democrats to make the point shows that they really
didn't want to raise wages after all.
I didn't expect much from Biden but he's even worse than I thought. Along with those
bought senators hiding behind Joe Manchin. Depressing to think how much worse everything will
become for working people here.
When I think about how they're complaining about Manchin now when there was a serious
primary challenge against him last year, and how the Democrat organization rallied around
Manchin and not his challenger, it is disgusting to see Slate/The Guardian/NYT/other "Blue no
matter who" mouth breathers write articles asking what can be done to salvage a progressive
agenda from the curse of bipartisanship.
I had given up on national politics long before the 2020 election circus but this latest
has confirmed my resolve. The destruction of the Democrat party can't come soon enough.
If I call them Hypocritics, when I never believed them in the first place, will they feel
any shame at all? Or must I be part of their class for them to feel even the tiniest of
niggles?
Perhaps they'll feel ashamed once they cut the check for the $600 they shorted us this
winter. Or maybe that they are reneging on the extended unemployment benefits early or
One side makes you sleep on a bed of nails and swear allegiance.The other side generously
offers to help you out, no strings attached, but you might bleed out from the thousands of
tiny means-testing cuts. Each side want the lower tiers to face the gauntlet and prove one's
worthiness, hoping to convince us that a black box algorithm is the same thing as a jury of
peers.
Exactly right! And keep in mind deluge of op-eds telling us that Biden is a
transformational president! The same authors presented a deluge of op-eds telling us how
Senator Sanders was to radical for the American people after he did well in early primaries.
That the reforms he supported like Medicare for all, raising the minimum wage, lowering drug
costs, help with daycare, doing something about climate change etc. were reforms that the
people would never accept because the people value their freedom and don't want to live in a
socialistic country.
It looks like none of the promises Biden made during the campaign will be implemented by
President Biden. That why he is in the White House.
Would a lot of these positions be filled if the US had single payer healthcare or similar?
Would workers accept low paying positions if they didn't have to lose so much of their pay to
crappy health insurance?
At our local Petsmart they cut staff during the pandemic. They laid off all full time
workers
And are only hiring back part time. I knew several of the laid off people and they are not
coming back. Two of the people that worked full time have found other jobs one with slightly
better pay the other with slightly better benefits. We are in California where rent is very
high so another person we know decided to use this as a chance to relocate to another state
where housing is less expensive. Our older neighbor retired, although vaccinated now, he
decided it just wasn't safe and after the CDC told everyone to take off their mask off. He is
glad he just decided to live on a little less money. I suspect there are a lot of reasons as
Yves stated above for a lack of workers, but this "they are lazy" trope is capitalistic
nonsense.
Some highlights:
>> everyone but an idiot knows that the lower classes must be kept poor, or they will
never be industrious.
-- Arthur Young; 1771
>>Even David Hume, that great humanist, hailed poverty and hunger as positive
experiences for the lower classes, and even blamed the "poverty" of France on its good
weather and fertile soil:
'Tis always observed, in years of scarcity, if it be not extreme, that the poor labour more,
and really live better.
>>Poverty is therefore a most necessary and indispensable ingredient in society It
is the source of wealth, since without poverty, there could be no labour; there could be no
riches, no refinement, no comfort, and no benefit to those who may be possessed of
wealth.
I'll just point out, per the Old Testament, that wage, debt and rent slavery were the
exception, not the norm (as they are in the US) for citizens (Hebrews) in ancient
Israel/Judah.
That's because the assets in ancient Israel/Judah were roughly equally owned by all
citizens with provisions in the OT Law (eg. Leviticus 25, eg. Deuteronomy 15, eg. Deuteronomy
23:19-20) to keep it that way in the long run (but less than 50 years).
Contrast that to US where we have privileges for a private credit cartel, aka "the banks",
and no limits to the concentration of land ownership and the roots of our problems are
evident.
So begging for better jobs for citizens is, in the Biblical context, pathetically weak tea
indeed.
On a personal note I had a great job interview Thursday at the local food co-op. This is
my first in person interview since I was terminated without cause by IBM (after almost 24
years there in a server development job) almost a year ago. Despite applying for over 100
positions. I'm over 60 and haven't worked in a year so I admit I'm grateful to even get the
chance.
I have another interview with them next week and hoping to start soon as a produce clerk
making $13.50 an hour. If I can get on full time they offer a decent insurance plan including
dental. The HR person acknowledged that I was "wildly overqualified" but encouraging. The
possibility of getting health care is key; my IBM Cobra benefits will start costing me almost
$1400/monthly for myself and my husband in September after the ARA subsidy expires.
I've adjusted my expectations to reinvent myself as a manual laborer after decades in
fairly cushy corporate life. I've managed to keep my health and physical capacity so somewhat
optimistic I can meet the job requirements that include lifting 50 lb boxes of produce. But
we'll see.
You mean you haven't had a job in a year since it's highly doubtful that you have not done
any work in a year; eg. cooking, cleaning, shopping, car maintenance, gardening,
chauffeuring, mowing the lawn, home maintenance and caring for others count as work.
We need to stop conflating work (good) with wage slavery as if the former necessarily
requires the latter.
Okay sure. I haven't earned in a year. But it's still a problem I'm trying to sort
out best as I can.
Since I still live in the US where earning is highly correlated with insurance
coverage, and I still have about 5 years until we're both qualified for Medicare this may
turn out to be a great thing that has happened.
And since I don't see a path out of wage slavery today I'll be happy to accept almost any
offer from the food co-op. It's a union job with decent pay and benefits and may offer other
opportunities in the future. They mostly buy and sell products that are locally made so that
makes it easier too. The money we are all enslaving each other over is staying around here as
much as possible. Okay.
Good luck! Fyi i strongly suggest u look into taking your IBM pension asap as 1. It will
minimally impact your taxes as u r now earning less n 2. How many more years do u think it
will be there? ( I usually recommend most people take their social security at 62 for similar
reasons but in your case I'd do your research b4 making any move like that. ) Take a blank
state n Fed tax form n pencil in the new income n see what the results are.
Btw truly wonderful people are involved in food co-ops,enjoy!
No one really questions the idea of maximising profit.
How do you maximise profit?
You minimise costs, including labour costs, i.e. wages.
Where did the idea of maximising profit comes from?
It certainly wasn't from Adam Smith.
"But the rate of profit does not, like rent and wages, rise with the prosperity and
fall with the declension of the society. On the contrary, it is naturally low in rich and
high in poor countries, and it is always highest in the countries which are going fastest to
ruin." Adam Smith
Exactly the opposite of today's thinking, what does he mean?
When rates of profit are high, capitalism is cannibalising itself by:
1) Not engaging in long term investment for the future
2) Paying insufficient wages to maintain demand for its products and services
Today's problems with growth and demand.
Amazon didn't suck its profits out as dividends and look how big it's grown (not so good on
the wages).
The benefits of the system can be passed upwards in dividends or downwards in wages.
Both actually detract from the money available for re-investment as Jeff Bezos knows only too
well.
He didn't pay dividends, and paid really low wages, to maximise the amount that he could
re-invest in Amazon and look how big it's grown.
The shareholders gains are made through the value of the shares.
Jeff Bezos hopes other people are paying high enough wages to buy lots of stuff from Amazon;
his own workers don't have much purchasing power.
Where do the benefits of the system go?
Today, we pass as much as possible upwards in dividends.
In the Keynesian era they passed a lot more down in wages.
> Jeff Bezos hopes other people are paying high enough wages to buy lots of stuff from
Amazon; his own workers don't have much purchasing power.
You are missing the tree in the forest. Jeff hopes other people will pay a high enough
price for Amazon stawk. We already know Jeff doesn't give a shit about the stuff he sells, or
the inhumane working conditions that go along with the low pay and short "career". I mean,
not even the nastiest farmer would treat his mules like that, even if mules were easy and
cheap to come by.
We don't think people should get money when they are not working.
Are you sure?
What's the point in working?
Why bother?
It's just not worth all the effort when you can make money doing nothing.
In 1984, for the first time in American history, "unearned" income exceeded "earned"
income.
They love easy money.
With a BTL portfolio, I can get the capital gains on a number of properties and extract
the hard earned income of generation rent at the same time.
That sounds good.
What is there not to like?
We love easy money.
You've just got to sniff out the easy money.
All that hard work involved in setting up a company yourself, and building it up.
Why bother?
Asset strip firms other people have built up, that's easy money.
"West Virginia's Republican Governor Jim Justice justified ending federal jobless
benefits early in his state by lecturing his residents on how, "America is all about work.
That's what has made this great country."
Have you had a look around recently?
In 1984, for the first time in American history, "unearned" income exceeded "earned"
income.
America is not about work at all.
The US is largely about exploiting or being exploited with most of US doing both.
We should resent an economic system that requires we exploit others or be a pure victim
ourselves.
That said and to face some truths we'd rather not, the Bible offers some comfort, eg:
Ecclesiastes 7:16 Do not be excessively righteous, and do not be overly wise. Why should you ruin
yourself?
Ecclesiastes 5:8-9 If you see oppression of the poor and denial of justice and righteousness in the province,
do not be shocked at the sight; for one official watches over another official, and there are
higher officials over them. After all, a king who cultivates the field is beneficial to the
land.
Nonetheless, we should support economic justice and recognize that most of us are net
losers to an unjust economic system even though it offers some corrupt compensation* to
divide and confuse us.
*eg positive yields and interest on the inherently risk-free debt of a monetary
sovereign.
Jim Justice made his money the old fashioned way, he inherited it:
From Wiki: James Conley Justice II (born April 27, 1951) is an American businessman and
politician who has been serving as the 36th governor of West Virginia since 2017. With a net
worth of around $1.2 billion, he is the wealthiest person in West Virginia. He inherited a
coal mining business from his father and built a business empire with over 94 companies,
including the Greenbrier, a luxury resort.
I wonder how much of this is also related to a change in the churn we assume existed
pre-pandemic? For example, the most recent JOLTS survey results from April
2021 show the total number of separations hasn't really changed but the number of quits
has increased.
So, one possible interpretation of that would be employers are less likely to fire people
and those who think they have skills in demand are more interested in leaving for better
opportunities now. That makes intuitive sense given what we've been through. If you had a
good gig and it was stable through 2020 you had very little reason to leave it even if an
offer was better with another company. That goes double if you were a caregiver or had
children. Which of course is why many women who were affected by the challenges of balancing
daycare and a career gave up.
This is also my experience lately. While it's only anecdotal evidence, we're having a hard
time hiring mid career engineers. Doesn't seem like pay is the issue. We offer a ton of
vacation, a separate pool of sick time, decent benefits, and wages in the six figures with a
good bonus program. We're looking to hire 3 engineers. We can't even get people to apply. In
2019 we could be sure to see a steady supply of experienced candidates looking for new
opportunities. Now? If you have an engineering position and your company is letting you work
from home it seems you don't have a good reason to jump.
Look no further than Cedar Point Amusement Park in Sandusky, Ohio. They had only half the
staff they normally need at $10 an hour. So they double the wage to $20 an hour and filled
every job in less than a week. The Conservaturds will never admit they are lying.
As a small business owner providing professional services I am grateful for the comment
section here.
I have called professional peers to get a behind the corporate PR perspective of their
businesses. Although anecdotal, the overall trend in our industry is to accept the labor
shortage and downsize. Most firms have a reliable backlog of work and will benefit from an
infrastructure bill. Our firm has chosen to downsize and close vacant positions.
Remote work, although feasible, has employees thinking they are LeBron James, regardless
of their skill set. Desperate employers are feeding their belief. Two years from now it will
be interesting to see if these employees they fail forward. Company culture minimized
employee turnover pre-covid. This culture has little meaning to an employee working in his
daughter's playroom.
For context, in California, I believe the median income for licensees is approximately
$110,000 with lower level technicians easily at $75k in the urban areas.
Lastly, the "paltry" $300 per week is in additional to the state unemployment checks and
is not subject to taxes. As stated previously, $300 is equal to $7.50 per hour. Federal
minimum wage is $7.25 and is adopted by many states minimum, for what it's worth.
With respect, I do not see any there there in the comment. Adjusted for inflation the
minimum wage at its height in 1968 at 1.60, would be just under $13 per hour today. However,
even at $15 in California, it is inadequate.
Anyone making anything like the minimum wage would not be working from home, but would be
working in some kind of customer service job, and would find paying for adequate food,
clothing, and shelter very difficult. Not in getting any extras, but only in getting enough
to survive. People, and their families, do need to eat.
If the response of not paying enough, and therefore not getting new hires, is to downsize,
perhaps that is good. After all no business deserves to remain in business, especially if the
business model depends on its workers being unable to survive.
I am also fed up with the "lazy worker" meme. Or rather, propaganda. People are literally
exhausted working 2 or 3 lousy jobs and no real healthcare. Equally irritating to me is a
misguided notion that we have some magically accessible generous safety net in the US. As
though there aren't thousands and thousands on waiting lists for government subsidized
housing. Section 8 vouchers? Good luck.
We've ended "welfare as we [knew] it" (AFDC) thanks to Bill Clinton and then the screw was
turned tightly by Junior Bush (no child care, but go to work.) The upshot was bad news for
kids.
Seems to me one of the few things left is the food stamp program, and I can't imagine how
that's been reconfigured. Whomever gave that fantastic list of goodies people can get in the
US with a mere snap of the fingers isn't in the real world, imho.
Ok! Yves, lovely to see you again, my friend! (Cue the Moody Blues ) Get well!
Here is my story.
I am 56 years old, on dialysis and I was collecting SSI of 529 a month.
I was living with and taking care of my mother in her home because she had dementia.
She died in December and I had to start paying the bills. In March I inherited her IRA which
I reported to SS. I was able to roll it over into my own IRA because I am disabled, due to
the Trump tax law changes.
I reported the changes in a timely manner and because I couldn't afford to live here without
a job, I took a part time job for 9 an hour.
So now, because I inherited my mother's IRA and have too much resources I no longer qualify
for SSI and have been overpaid to the tune of almost 2 grand, which I am assuming I will have
to pay back. I have no idea how that works either. Do they just grab money out of your
account? Anyone who knows please tell me.
I would run, run, run to the nearest public assistance counselor or lawyer. In the San
Francisco Bay Area, it is should not be too hard to find one. They saved me. There are also
in California several state websites. There was a useful to me benefits planning site (It only covers nine states though).
The rules for SSI (Supplemental Security Income), SSDI (Social Security Disability
Insurance), Social Security, Medi-Cal or Medicaid, and Medicare are each different. Each
state has its own modifications as well, so that is fifty additional sets of modified rules
especially for the medical benefits. If they are determined to claw back the money, how it is
done might depend on the individual state. It is truly a maze of flycatchers and trapdoors
out for you and your money.
The overworked benefits clerks often do not have the knowledge to deal with anything even
slightly unusual and are not encourage or at least discouraged from finding out due to
the never shrinking pile, not from anyone's malice. This means you could lose benefits
because they did not know what they were doing or just by mistake. So, it is up to you to
find those nonprofit counselors or the for profit lawyer to help you through the laws, rules,
and whatever local regulations there are. Hopefully, you will not have to read through some
of the official printed regulations like I did. If wasn't an experience paper pusher.. The
average person would have been lost. Intelligence and competence has nothing to do with.
Hell, neither does logic, I think.
In my case, when I inherited a retirement account, SSDI was not affected, because of how
the original account was set up. However, SSDI is different from SSI although both have
interesting and Byzantine requirements. I guess to make sure we are all "deserving" of any
help.
So don't ask anonymous bozos like me on the internet and find those local counselors. If
it is nonprofit, they will probably do it completely free. If needed, many lawyers, including
tax lawyers, and CPAs will offer discounted help or will know where you can go.
What is the floor on wages?
Disposable income = wages – (taxes + the cost of living)
Set disposable income to zero.
Minimum wages = taxes + the cost of living
So, as we increase housing costs, we drive up wages.
The neoliberal solution.
Try and paper over the cracks with Payday loans.
This what we call a short term solution.
Someone has been tinkering with the economics and that's why we can't see the problem.
The early neoclassical economists hid the problems of rentier activity in the economy by
removing the difference between "earned" and "unearned" income and they conflated "land" with
"capital".
They took the focus off the cost of living that had been so important to the Classical
Economists as this is where rentier activity in the economy shows up.
It's so well hidden no one even knows it's there and everyone trips up over the cost of
living, even the Chinese.
Angus Deaton rediscovers the wheel that was lost by the early neoclassical economists. "Income inequality is not killing capitalism in the United States, but rent-seekers like
the banking and the health-care sectors just might" Angus Deaton, Nobel prize winner.
Employees get their money from wages and the employers pay the cost of living through wages,
reducing profit.
This raises the costs of doing anything in the US, and drives off-shoring.
The Chinese learn the hard way.
Davos 2019 – The Chinese have now realised high housing costs eat into consumer
spending and they wanted to increase internal consumption. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNBcIFu-_V0
They let real estate rip and have now realised why that wasn't a good idea.
The equation makes it so easy.
Disposable income = wages – (taxes + the cost of living)
The cost of living term goes up with increased housing costs.
The disposable income term goes down.
They didn't have the equation, they used neoclassical economics.
The Chinese had to learn the hard way and it took years, but they got there in the end.
They have let the cost of living rise and they want to increase internal consumption.
Disposable income = wages – (taxes + the cost of living)
It's a double whammy on wages.
China isn't as competitive as it used to be.
China has become more expensive and developed Eastern economies are off-shoring to places
like Vietnam, Bangladesh and the Philippines.
Total DUCs in shale basins are falling at the rate of about 250 per month. I don't know how long this can continue. I have been
told by some experts in the field that there are some DUCs that will never be completed because they would not produce enough oil
to pay the completion cost. So we just cannot count the DUCs and divide by 250. The decline in DUCs will have to stop sooner or
later.
Frugal, I am not an oilman, and an oilman could obviously give a better answer than I. But I will give it a shot, and hopefully,
I will be corrected for any mistakes I make.
Drillers are not frackers and frackers are not drillers. That is an entirely different operation requiring different crews, different
equipment, and different CAPEX. But the driller leaves behind samples from the well, indicating just how productive the well should
be. The best wells will obviously be fracked first. The less promising wells will be left for times when the price is high enough
to justify the fracking cost.
But"¦. the total cost of the well is the drilling cost plus the fracking cost. And in a DUC, the drilling cost has already been
spent. So when times get hard, and you can get a well, though it might not be the best well, you have already paid the drilling
cost, so you can get it for only the fracking cost now. So you pay the fracking cost and recover what you can. And this would
be the case especially if the new wells that are coming in are less promising than the poor wells already drilled.
But then, that's just my opinion, for what it's worth.
Comments for this article are pretty instructive about the particular strata of US population
mindset right now. Reminds the mood of dissidents in the USSR.
Tucker Carlson dropped several bombshells on his show Tuesday night, chief among them was
from a Revolver News report that the FBI was likely involved in organizing the Jan. 6 Capitol
'insurrection,' and were similarly involved in the kidnapping plot against Michigan Governor
Gretchin Whitmer .
" Why are there so many factual matters that we don't understand about that day? " asked
Carlson.
" Why is the Biden administration preventing us from knowing? Why is the administration
still hiding more than 10,000 hours of surveillance tape from the US capitol on January 6th?
What could possibly be the reason for that - even as they call for more openness... they could
release those tapes today, but they're not. Why?"
Carlson notes that
Revolver News has dissected court filings surrounding the Capitol riot, suggests that
unindicted co-conspirators in the case are likely to have been federal operatives.
We at Revolver News have noticed a pattern from our now months-long investigation into 1/6
-- and in particular from our meticulous study of the charging documents related to those
indicted. In many cases the unindicted co-conspirators appear to be much more aggressive and
egregious participants in the very so-called "conspiracy" serving as the basis for charging
those indicted.
The question immediately arises as to why this is the case, and forces us to consider
whether certain individuals are being protected from indictment because they were involved in
1/6 as undercover operatives or confidential informants for a federal agency.
Key segment from Tucker:
"We know that the government is hiding the identity of many law enforcement officers that
were present at the Capitol on January 6th, not just the one that killed Ashli Babbitt.
According to the government's own court filing, those law enforcement officers participated
in the riot - sometimes in violent ways . We know that because without fail, the government
has thrown the book at most people who were present at the Capitol on Jan. 6. There was a
nationwide dragnet to find them - and many are still in solitary confinement tonight. But s
trangely, some of the key people who participated on Jan. 6 have not been charged ."
Look at the documents , the government calls those people 'unindicted co-conspirators.'
What does that mean? Well it means that in potentially every case they were FBI operatives
... in the Capitol, on January 6th."
"For example, one of those unindicted co-conspirators is someone government documents
identify only as "person two." According to those documents, person two stayed in the same
hotel room as a man called Thomas Caldwell - an 'insurrectionist.' A man alleged to be a
member of the group "The Oathkeepers." Person two also "stormed the barricades" at the
Capitol on January 6th alongside Thomas Caldwell. The government's indictments further
indicate that Caldwell - who by the way is a 65-year-old man... was led to believe there
would be a "quick reaction force" also participating on January 6th. That quick reaction
force Caldwell was told, would be led by someone called "Person 3," who had a hotel room and
an accomplice with them . But wait. Here's the interesting thing. Person 2 and person 3 were
organizers of the riot . The government knows who they are, but the government has not
charged them. Why is that? You know why. They were almost certainly working for the FBI. So
FBI operatives were organizing the attack on the Capitol on January 6th according to
government documents. And those two are not alone. In all, Revolver news reported there are
"upwards of 20 unindicted co-conspirators in the Oath Keeper indictments, all playing various
roles in the conspiracy, who have not been charged for virtually the exact same activities
and in some cases much, much more severe activities - as those named alongside them in the
indictments."
Revolver , meanwhile, has important questions about January 6th
In the year leading up to 1/6 and during 1/6 itself, to what extent were the three primary militia groups (the Oath Keepers,
the Proud Boys, and the Three Percenters) that the FBI , DOJ , Pentagon and
network news have labeled most
responsible for planning and executing a Capitol attack on 1/6 infiltrated by agencies of the
federal government, or informants of said agencies?
Exactly how many federal undercover agents or confidential informants were present at the
Capitol or in the Capitol during the infamous "siege" and what roles did they play (merely
passive informants or active instigators)?
Finally, of all of the unindicted co-conspirators referenced in the charging documents of
those indicted for crimes on 1/6, how many worked as a confidential informant or as an
undercover operative for the federal government (FBI, Army Counterintelligence, etc.)?
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has demanded an explanation from FBI Director Christopher Wray:
We recommend you read the entire
Revolver piece, which includes the fact that at least five individuals involved int he
"Whitmer Kidnapping Plot" were undercover agents and federal informants .
_Rorschach 7 hours ago
Just remember folks
a Klan meeting is always 33 FBI agents
and 2 ACTUAL white supremacists
Dragonlord 7 hours ago
No CIA? I am disappointed.
_Rorschach 7 hours ago (Edited)
Glowies are never at the meetings
theyre busy planting bombs for the false flag afterwards
Misesmissesme 6 hours ago
90% of "terrorists" would never commit acts of terror if the US Guv wasn't coercing them
to commit said acts. The wrong people are in jail.
Wonder who in government started the ball rolling on 9/11 before it got away from
them?
Sedaeng PREMIUM 6 hours ago
it never got away from them! They directed through and afterwards... Patriot act just
'happened' to be on standby just in case? ha!
Not Your Father's ZH 6 hours ago (Edited)
Amid this chronic Machiavellian conniving, here are creatures who know how to act
right:
"Civilization is a stream with banks. The stream is sometimes filled with blood from
people killing, stealing, shouting and doing things historians usually record; while on the
banks, unnoticed, people build homes, make love, raise children, sing songs, write poetry
and even whittle statues. The story of civilization is the story of what happened on the
banks. Historians are pessimists because they ignore the banks of the river." ~ Will
Durant, "The Story of Civilization"
"He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a
monster. And if you gaze long into an abyss , the abyss also gazes into you." - Friedrich
Nietzsche
"Everything human is pathetic. The secret source of humor itself is not joy, but sorrow.
There is no humor in Heaven." ― Mark Twain
thomas sewell 6 hours ago
everything in the USA is bull sheet. its all polluted with mind fook.
the last 1+ year has gone beyond any psycho drama i could ever imagine.
krda 5 hours ago
Didn't Brennan issue the 9/11 hijackers' visas?
zedwork 1 hour ago
Yes, but no planes. That would have been way too risky when you can just add them into
the live feed later using CGI.
Bob Lidd 1 hour ago
You mean like what happen in the 1993 WTC bombing.....??
How there hasn't been a day of reckoning yet is beyond me.
SexyJulian 6 hours ago
And stacks of bricks.
E5 5 hours ago
The FBI does not have the right to commit a crime. They chose to run an operation they
should disavow all agents involved and they know it. Arrest them.
With Wray out there spreading fear about the Great White Supremacy Threat, you can bet
the FBI is working overtime to make something newsworthy happen. Remember folks: 3
"militia" = 2 FBI informants + 1 patsy
Until the JFK murder/coup is brought to light, you can bet it's all hoax, including
Trump being an 'outsider'. He's not. He did everything Israel told him to do.
GhostOLaz 3 hours ago
America's perception of the FBI comes from TV "programs", not history or reality.
Joiningupthedots 1 hour ago
"Why is the administration still hiding more than 10,000 hours of surveillance tape from
the US capitol on January 6th?"
For the same reason the UK government wont release the Skripal Tapes from Salisbury,
UK.......LMAO.
Its an inside job........OBVIOUSLY!
Faeriedust 2 hours ago
So. Incidents are being staged and then used as excuses for more draconian State
security powers. How is this different from the behavior of known historical groups such as
the SS and the KGB? How can this be interpreted except as the actions of a totalitarian
State?
Sizzurp PREMIUM 6 hours ago
Scary stuff. They manufacture their own crimes to suit their political narrative and
agenda. This is straight out of the Nazi playbook.
Garciathinksso 6 hours ago
this is SOP for FBI, long rich history of manufacturing crimes and low, mid and high
level corruption . Prior to that the BOI was even worse.
JaxPavan 7 hours ago remove link
The chickens coming home to roost.
This was a "color revolution" by us, against us. And, it was designed to fail. Like a
freakish side show.
Why? Let off political steam. Keep all the people in their respective aisle of the
democan and republicrat uniparty bus. Distract political attention away from the full
****** plandemic lockdowns. Keep the rest of the world agape for a few more years thinking
things will fall apart on their own, while their resources are extracted. . .
Jam 47 minutes ago
This scam getting some press now is better late than never, but not by much. Some of
these media types being all surprised by this must have lived pretty sheltered lives and
are lacking any street smarts. This set up was obvious since day one, this is the same
bunch that won't call out these crooks for rigged elections.
Oxygen Likes Carbon 48 minutes ago
It should be painfully clear that with the level of surveillance in 2021, nobody can
walk into high security governmental building, without being arrested. Let alone organize a
mass demonstration then go into Capitol Building during the day, while the politicians
being there, to take ... selfies.
... without some help, or coordination from some governmental services.
anti-bolshevik 7 hours ago (Edited)
Replace 'unindicted co-conspirators.' with Agent Provocateurs.
The entire chain-of-command that authorized / planned / executed / gave material support
to this Operation should be indicted and prosecuted.
In this course of its investigation, researchers at Fordham discovered that EVERY
SINGLE ONE of the 138 terrorist incidents recorded in the USA between 2001-2012 involved
FBI informants who played leading roles in planning out, supplying weapons, instructions
and even recruiting Islamic terrorists to carry out terrorist acts on U.S. soil.
Enraged 56 minutes ago
With FBI Director Comey, Assistant Director McCabe, and FBI agent/covert CIA agent
Strzok acting against President Trump, this should be considered treasonous, and hopefully
they will be prosecuted.
The question is who authorized the latest actions on January 6 since Comey, McCabe, and
Strzok were fired.
Conductor "Corn Pop" Angelo 38 minutes ago
I can think of two to start with. Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi. Both refused
additional security even after being told that the latest intel suggested there was going
to be a protest at the capital building on Jan 6th. The two were offered National Guard
troops, in addition to Capital Police, to help out, but refused. IIRC, both the Senate and
House Sgt at Arms lost their jobs over this, too
Make it three, Mayor Bowser had the same intel and did nothing
Andro1345 7 hours ago
These are old tricks by the FBI. They have been just as bad as the CIA for years.
So many instances going back so far. They plan things, set it up, help to encourage and
supply sheep to do these things. If I had someone trying to encourage me to get on board
something similar my first guess would be a government operative, seriously.
WeNamedTheDogIndiana 1 hour ago
I attended protests after the election, and it was obvious to be that the rallies at our
state capitol were infiltrated by FBI/deep state stooges. A number of them were talking
civil war, and said it too boldly in my opinion, and then many of them were carrying AKs,
when that was not necessary.
The only rally that I attended that seemed uncorrupted was the first protest in DC a few
weeks after the election.
taketheredpill 7 hours ago
Don't be shocked if the FBI funded some of the trips, hotels etc.
And for sure the FBI operatives "wound up" the participants...
But you won't find out for 10 years.
Alfred 7 hours ago
Not just infiltrated.
The FBI actually creates the organizations they then infiltrate.
Someone goes on a good rant here or there, can expect to be befriended by someone of
like mind. Thereafter that someone undergoes radicalization and then organization via FBI
sting ops. They get funding, they get resources, they get ready, they get busted.
Ha! It's all shake-n-bake, baby!
ProudZion 6 hours ago
...The proud boys was led by a FBI agent....
Mad Muppet PREMIUM 1 hour ago
They're called Agents Provacateurs and it's nothing new. The Government always initiates
the violence they say they want to prevent.
Ms No PREMIUM 1 hour ago remove link
"Informants" is a very misleading title. They aren't out there ferretting info of people
up to no good. It's more an infiltration and steering game and always has been.
They are basically agents without the boundaries of law. Good front guys too. They will
keep them out of trouble and protect them if they can but if it gets too hot they are
expendable and even easily patsied. It's all actually actually technically illegal because
even when they do real informant work it's actually entrapment.
We used to be protected from these things and now you see the reason behind that.
Nothing is new it just has different names and since it's always avoided by media, some of
it doesn't even have proper names, at least for the public.
It's basically false flag color revolution operations.
QuiteShocking 6 hours ago (Edited) remove link
The USA's standing in the world is vastly diminished by the continue lies and
mischaracterizations of what happened on Jan 6th by the democrats. The police officer died
from a stroke and not from the rioters. The unarmed white woman was executed by capital
police and no one was held responsible. The democrats have continued to blatantly lie and
mislead on what really happened on Jan 6th for political gain...
Max21c 7 hours ago
We recommend you read the entire
Revolver piece, which includes the fact that at least five individuals involved int
he "Whitmer Kidnapping Plot" were undercover agents and federal informants .
People were already aware that the FBI kidnapping plot against Michigan Governor
Gretchen Whitmer was an FBI thing from the start and all throughout. Just as many if not
most of these things are as they involve the secret police creating the plots and then
unraveling the plots they've created and managed and orchestrated all along the way.
Angular Momentum 7 hours ago
The states need to outlaw entrapment in cases like that. The FBI moles need to be
punished as severely as the dupes.
junction 7 hours ago
The FBI and the CIA apparently fund the so-call White Supremacist organizations. Your
tax dollars at work. Meanwhile, total silence for a decade from the FBI as Jeffrey Epstein
ran a transnational white slavery operation out of his Manhattan mansion, aided by the
Israeli Mossad.
Max21c 7 hours ago
The intelligence community and secret police community were well aware of what was going
on with the Epstein operation. It's not just the US side either as the UK and Israelis were
aware of it also.
Uncle Sugar PREMIUM 7 hours ago (Edited) remove link
Trump is better than Xiden, but
He left Chris Wray running the FIB
He didn't prosecute Comey, Brennan, anyone
He pushed the "Vax"
He spent worse than a drunken sailor
Conclusion - He's not the answer
OldNewB 6 hours ago
He should have pardoned Snowden.
otschelnik 7 hours ago
Well looks like the DOJ is bringing back the Obummer spygate team. John P. Carlin who
was head of DOJ/National Security Division is now deputy AG. He let the FBI give 4 civilian
contractors access to the NSA database for 702 inquiries, which Admiral Rogers stopped.
Also back is Lisa Monoco who oversaw the FISA warrants for Carter Page, and now she's going
to be heading up Garland's domestic terror task force.
That's all very ominous.
Farmer Tink 4 hours ago
I didn't realize that Carlin was back. He tried to defend his actions in the annual
report to the FISA court but Adm. Mike Rogers, on whose watch the NSA found out what the
DOJ was doing, carried the day. I also didn't realize that Lisa Monaco was the one in
charge of those illegal Page warrants. It's just sickening that they are being rewarded.
Thanks for the info.
glenlloyd 2 hours ago (Edited)
With such a high percentage of those 'involved' in the "insurrection" (said loosely
here) and the so called Whitmer kidnapping being from FBI / CIA / other intelligence
agencies AND those same people end up apparently being in leadership roles in these groups
that are supposedly going to be doing the kidnapping and insurrecting, then it's really
hard not to come to the conclusion that the fault was with the FBI et al.
It just seems like the FBI et al were way more involved in this than they should have
been, if you're going to suggest that it was the others that are to blame. The tough pill
to swallow is the claim that it was the people the FBI et al infiltrated and coerced into
do these things, that are to blame.
Things really do stink with this.
newworldorder 5 hours ago
How are these actions are not "entrapment."
InfiniteIntellRules 5 hours ago
I will stop, just too many tales of FBI corruption. Last 1
Under COINTELPRO, FBI agents infiltrated political groups and spread rumors that loyal
members were the real infiltrators. They tried to get targets fired from their jobs, and
they tried to break up the targets' marriages. They published deliberately inflammatory
literature in the names of the organizations they wanted to discredit, and they drove
wedges between groups that might otherwise be allied. In Baltimore, the FBI's operatives in
the Black Panther Party were instructed to denounce Students for a Democratic Society as "a
cowardly, honky group" who wanted to exploit the Panthers by giving them all the violent,
dangerous "dirty work." The operation was apparently successful: In August 1969, just five
months after the initial instructions went out, the Baltimore FBI reported that the local
Panther branch had ordered its members not to associate with SDS members or attend any SDS
events.
EVERY MAJOR EVENT. EVERY SINGLE TIME.
heehaw2 6 hours ago
All happened under Trumps watch. He said he was going to lead the March to Capital
building, then totally disappeared.
MrNoItAll 7 hours ago
Got to hand it to them. Those Fed guys sure know how to stage a riot to get media
attention and shape public opinion. How else could they explain why all the guard troops
were needed in D C. When getting them there could have been the primary goal of this staged
event.
lightwork 7 hours ago
In the early 70's it seemed that a government informant/ mole was instrumental in the
activities of virtually every left wing group in the country. It became common knowledge
that whomever was most vocal and advocated the most activist positions was usually "that
guy". It was effective since paranoia caused most groups to disintegrate.
otschelnik 8 hours ago remove link
Probably more snitches than that.
Oath Keeper Thomas Caldwell who is one of the lucky few released but still charged is a
former FBI contractor who had top secret security clearance according to his lawyer.
Proud Boy Enrique Tarrio who was arrested 2 days before the riot for vandalism (burning
a BLM banner), had been an informer to the FBI and law inforcement in Florida, according to
his lawyer.
They forgot Antifa and BLM in their list of groups.
State sponsored terrorist groups favored by Liberal Elites and their secret police are
generally omitted and immune.
heehaw2 6 hours ago
George Bush Senior, then head of CIA was in Dallas when JFK was assinated. Ol George
announced as President the New World order
QE49er 6 hours ago
Reichstag Fire style false flag.
Ruff_Roll 6 hours ago
It makes perfect sense that FBI or government supported operatives were acting as agents
provocateurs on 1/6, organizing and instigating the riot, and subsequently let off as
"unindicted co-conspirators." Pelosi was probably in on it, too.
TheySayIAmOkay 7 hours ago
This is the biggest "duh" ever. Of course the government is involved. Just like they
were in 9/11. Just like they were stealing the election. Just like they are in at least
some of these mass shootings (the FBI was warned about the Parkland shooter multiple
times). Just like they will be in the next big incident that massively strips rights from
the people.
The Deep State is real. And it is the upper echelons of the FBI, DHS, CIA, ATF, etc.
They are the shadow government that wags the tail. They can do whatever they want and
nobody can do anything about it. Do you think if Ted Cruz or Nancy Pelosi killed someone
they'd get away with it? No. They are figures. The limits of their power can be stripped
with a single, stupid, scandal. How about John Brennan? I have absolutely no doubt in my
mind he could. Because who will hold him accountable? Nobody in the CIA or FBI went down
for not listening to the FBI agent about the 20th hijacker. Mueller got PROMOTED! He's deep
state. Brennan was regional chief of the CIA in Riyadh leading up to 9/11. He got...
PROMOTED! Deep state.
3-fingered_chemist 7 hours ago
The fact the Capitol had essentially zero security the day all members were present to
tally the EC votes and people still think this wasn't faked?
Jim in MN 7 hours ago
Speaking as someone who actually attended the earlier 'Stop the Steal' rally in DC, I
said at the time that the Jan. 6th event didn't smell right and felt like a setup.
Recommended that folks stay away, expect trouble and stay frosty at that time.
Note that the FBI was/is also deeply involved in the BLM riots. AKA a criminal
conspiracy to destabilize US civil order. Of course a lot of mayors and police chiefs are
also involved in that criminal conspiracy.
The more you know.....
jammyjo 7 hours ago
FBI is making contact with unstable people, and do nothing but keep them on a list of
"assets" to be activated when needed.
Patmos 7 hours ago
Gives new meaning to false narrative. More than just spin, they actually create the
events themselves. Not quite a false flag, because nothing really happened.
Is anyone involved going to stand up and say no? Or have they all just decided to
reserve themselves to being corrupt little b!tches?
Feck Weed 7 hours ago
FBI is the US domestic secret police force for the Globalist Empire. Nationalism is the
enemy of the globalists...
Let us preface our inflation note with one of our favorite quotes:
"World War II was transitory"
– GMM
Inflation has eroded my purchasing power in my transitory life. Bring back the $.35 Big Mac,
which was only about 20% of the minimum wage. Now? About 40-50%... Enough to spark a
revolution?
In its latest Monthly Oil Report, the IEA called on OPEC+ to increase production in order to
counter higher demand in 2022.
... ... ...
The current market situation is very clear. OPEC+ is leading the sector, no matter what
political strategies or activist shareholders at IOCs are planning. The market is still fully
hydrocarbon addicted, and this will not change overnight.
The IEA also needs to reassess its current strategies and press approach, as a continuation
of the diffuse ''Lala-land predictions'' will not make their case stronger.
As indicated by the IEA OMR report demand will increase by 5.36 million bpd in 2021, and
another 3.07 million bpd in 2022. At the end of 2022, global demand is expected to be at 99.46
million b/d on average.
This optimism in the market is widely shared, looking at price predictions from Goldman
Sachs, Bank of America, and Citibank, with some analysts even predicting $100 per barrel in
2022.
cowdiddly 1 hour ago (Edited)
I do not listen to government clowns.
"You want to know what the price of oil is going to do watch the rig count" T. Boone
Pickins
Single best piece of energy investment advice I ever had.
gregga777 48 minutes ago (Edited) remove link
The IEA seems to be following this very mature behavioral advice:
"When in trouble,
When in doubt,
Run in circles,
Scream and shout."
Falconsixone 40 minutes ago
Tanks eat a lot of fuel.
GrayManSix 23 minutes ago
Instead of "kill all the lawyers," it should now be "kill all the academics." People in
ivory towers who have no inkling of the real world realities....
radical-extremist 39 minutes ago remove link
I highly recommend "Unsettled" by Steven E. Koonin.
He does the best job to date of unpacking what we know and don't know about Climate
Change.
Educate yourself on it...and hurry before the book is banned.
19331510 48 minutes ago remove link
There is no climate emergency and absolutely no reason to pursue net-zero emissions.
Co2 is 0.04% of the atmosphere and it is impossible for that small amount of gas to
significantly impact the climate.
Co2 is the key driver of photosynthesis and higher levels of atmospheric co2 increase
agricultural production necessary to feed an ever growing population.
The UAH temperature data indicates the average global temperature is 0.08 C above the 30
year average. There is no global warming.
The severity of storms and and number of severe storms are not increasing.
The oceans may be rising between 1.8 mm/yr to 3.6 mm/yr if at all. Tide gauges a wrought
with issues.
The pursuit of a green economy will destroy our economy. manhattan-institute.org Mark P. Mills
There is no need to end the use hydrocarbons. Please educate yourself.
By Rebecca Elliott and Collin Eaton Updated Aug. 26, 2020 4:11 pm ET
Refineries, petrochemical facilities and ports along the Gulf Coast were closing as
Hurricane Laura barreled toward the Texas-Louisiana border.
The hurricane strengthened to a Category 4 storm Wednesday, with sustained winds of 140
miles an hour, according to an afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center. It is
projected to unleash a storm surge as high as 20 feet along portions of the Louisiana coast
with as much as 15 inches of rainfall.
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM has been generating fewer barrels of oil from the prolific
shale fields of the United States since 2019, per Reuters.
According to a latest report, the company's oil wells, which are involved in some of the
most promising shale fields, produced fewer barrels of oil per well despite an increase in
overall expenditure and production.
In 2017, Exxon, which is one of the largest shale oil producers, acquired $6.6 billion of
net acres in New Mexico, which doubled the company's assets in the Permian basin that spans
west Texas and New Mexico. Notably, the company intends to boost shale output in the New Mexico
portion of the Permian basin to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2025.
Per data released by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis ("IEEFA"),
Exxon's average liquid output for the first 12 months of a well dropped to 521 bpd in 2019
from an average of 635 bpd in 2018 in its Delaware basin assets of New Mexico.
That's an 18% drop in production per well. And this was before the pandemic
Another scenario is that some exporting nations realize they will need this oil as the world
stares into a scarcity of oil. They might say: "Shit, why are we selling this stuff when we
will desperately need it for ourselves in a few years?" And as they cut back, or stop exporting
altogether, the problem gets a lot worse, and prices spike even higher. REPLYDOUG LEIGHTON IGNORED06/13/2021 at 3:34 pm
L.O.L. The decision concerning the proportion of a domestic resource that should be
preserved for domestic needs, and how much to export, is interesting. China's REE deposits come
to mind. Also, the impact of the immediate use of a resource versus a lower level of
exploitation over time might come into play in some (perhaps unrealistic) scenarios as well.
Not many examples of countries that have exhaustible natural resources saving some for future
generations I'm aware of; probably would result in an unwelcome war or another ugly result!
WTI at $70 is probably still bearable. Higher numbers dramatically increase chances of the
recession (actually the USA is in secular stagnation since 2008).
You need EROEI around 7 for the source of energy to be economically viable. Wind barely
makes it, but solar, outside of deserts does not.
Another interesting figure is that the energy density ( KW/kg ) of lithium batteries is
approximately 100 times less then energy density of diesel (gas has slightly lower energy
density; kerosene approximately the same).
A subcompact car with a 10-gallon gas tank can store the energy equivalent of 7 Teslas, 15
Nissan Leafs or 23 Chevy Volts, according to industry sources.
REPLYPHIL S IGNORED
06/07/2021 at 7:50 pm
" interesting figure is that the energy density ( KW/kg ) of lithium batteries is
approximately 100 times less then energy density of diesel "
but don't forget the energy in the diesel is about 30% efficient converting into work while the
battery is over 90% efficent doing work – so comparing energy "stored" in compact cars
and teslas etc is either pretty useless or pretty misleading
REPLYMIKE SUTHERLAND IGNORED HOLE IN HEAD IGNORED
06/12/2021 at 6:35 am
Likbez , I will make an effort to answer your 3 questions .
1. Peak oil was /is 2018 . Plateau will be 5 years . Why ? The parameter is exportable oil
production and not total oil production . ELM is a bitch .
2 . Nuclear fusion . Not going to happen . It is like the horizon . We can see it but we can't
reach it .
3 . USA situation . I am least qualified to comment as I am in Europe , but still the safest is
that the current political system cannot continue for long especially when I look at it with
the lenses of resource availability . There are no volunteers for starvation . What will
replace this ? I don't know .
P.S :Your sentence "Like in war this is the question of strategy. Wrong strategy usually leads
to defeat. " I am going to be using this . Hope you don't have a copyright on this .
🙂
But your post is also misleading and leaves the reader with the impression that you're
little more than an EV propagandist. Even at 30% efficiency for diesel, there is still 100/3 =
33.3x more energy available than a comparably sized lithium battery. That huge difference is
far and anyway superior to anything a battery will ever do, ever. It will never be matched by
any electrochemical storage scheme. So there is that.
REPLYKLEIBER IGNORED
06/09/2021 at 1:42 pm
Indeed. The advantages EVs have come from efficiency in weight reduction (aside from the
battery pack) and aerodynamics, along with electric motors being super simple and efficient.
But in terms of raw energy density, you cannot beat chemical fuels, and there really isn't
anything that threatens this by virtue of the chemistry.
Batteries, for all their advantages in simplicity, are never going to be lighter and more
energy dense. Lithium is just about the best there is in terms of weight to energy ratio,
something quite key for a moving vehicle.
REPLYLIKBEZ IGNORED
06/09/2021 at 7:10 pm
Mike,
Electrical engines proved to be viable for small cars and delivery trucks with short ranges.
No question about it. But that does not mean they are optimal. This is just a fashion partially
fueled by people who missed their STEM classes 😉
I think natural gas is currently a viable competitor to EV and is IMHO a much better
feat.
First of all charging efficiency of lithium battery is only 80%.
That's true that electrical motor is more efficient, but when you have a transmission using
multiple gears most of this difference is lost.
Also you overestimated the efficiency of the tandem lithium battery -- electrical motor, as
it includes converter with efficiency less then 90% and a lithium battery has its own internal
resistance which increases with age and also lead to losses. 0.8*0.8*0.9=0.57. BTW modern
diesel engines efficiency is about 43%-44%, based on 2013-2014 certified engines.
Moreover the efficiency of lithium battery in winter is dismal. And not only because at low
temperatures is simply does not work well and its capacity is less. A lot of energy is consumed
by the cabin heater. IMHO driving EV in severe winter is dangerous not withstanding short trips
to nearby sky resort that some make on their Tesla 3 🙂
REPLYJOHN NORRIS IGNORED
06/10/2021 at 7:06 am
The average US car goes 0.74 miles on a kWh of gasoline. Many Teslas and the Hyundai Kona
(among others) go 4.0 miles per kWh.
Cost per mile is $0.12 for gasoline, $0.06 for California EV, $0.03 for average EV.
HICKORY IGNORED
06/07/2021 at 10:35 pm
Likbez.
Switzerland has poorer solar input than any place in the lower 48, even pacific northwest
coastal, so its a lame site to use as a yardstick.
I know people who do 100% of their driving miles with solar from the roof, at lower cost than
your miles.
And they didn't check the EROEI figures before or after the purchase of equipment.
The solar is already paid off for them, and they've got 2 to 4 more decades of electricity
coming from that system.
And I know people who have driven across the entire country with no liquid fuel tank-nothing
for energy storage in their EV but lithium. And the acceleration of their car will pin you deep
in your seat if they aren't careful with the pedal.
Hey- look on the bright side- every mile that solar/electric vehicles travel is just another
mile of gasoline left for you.
REPLYMIKE SUTHERLAND IGNORED
06/09/2021 at 9:22 am
Hickory, how many of those solar panels were subsidized by government? A lot of them. And
what's more, even though early adopters charged their Teslas from those subsidized panels, did
that somehow change the EREOI from 0.8? How is the rest of society going to benefit if all the
early opportunists managed to get cheap cells at an artificially low price, that actually were
fantastically expensive in real terms regarding the cheap energy (at the time) that was used to
make them?
And so what if they drove across the country in electric power??? WTF? What does that prove?
Was there actually anything productive generated by this hugely energy intensive
self-interested activity? No, there was not. It was nothing more than a display of self
indulgence, and an excessive one at that.
REPLYHICKORY IGNORED
06/09/2021 at 10:11 am
MikeS.
"The Energy Payback Time of PV systems is dependent on the geographical location: PV systems in
Northern Europe need around 1.5 years to balance the input energy, while PV systems in the
South equal their energy input after 1 year and less,"
https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
After 25 years modern panels still have between 82-93% peak capacity output.
In regard to the feasibility of lithium batteries- I was pointing out that they work well
enough (are dense enough) to get the job done. Its not a complicated idea. Likebz referenced
diesel energy density. Thats very good, but in case you haven't been keeping up- peak crude oil
is upon us, so time to adapt. Past time actually.
Bottomline- both solar energy and electric vehicles are viable systems for transportation.
And that is nice considering the world faces peak oil supply.
Some people would prefer to witness the countries economy crash and burn as peak oil becomes
a reality. I guess they think they would make more money for the short term. Others would like
to see the country gradually deploy other ways to get around.
REPLYKLEIBER IGNORED
06/09/2021 at 1:57 pm
If nothing else, this scenario will lead to a radical reshaping of how we as a species go
about doing logistics. If the pandemic hasn't called into question the application of JIT
logistics for all industries, then the loss of cheap diesel certainly will. Even if long haul
electric trucks become a thing, it will require a different approach to matters.
Cars are otherwise a solved issue with EVs. There's nothing that an ICE can really offer
over an EV. Trucking and heavy industry is another matter, and that's where problems will be.
Frankly, I welcome this uprooting of a paradigm that has no resilience built in whatsoever.
LIKBEZ IGNORED
06/10/2021 at 3:26 pm
You are both funny and superficial.
There is no question that "electric vehicles are viable systems for transportation. " that's
true since 1940th I think. Just think about electric trains and diesel-electric trains :-).
Also as compact cars they are viable in temperate climate (Leaf, Tesla, etc) and possibly in
big cities and corresponding metropolitan areas.
Some people would prefer to witness the countries economy crash and burn as peak oil
becomes a reality. I guess they think they would make more money for the short term. Others
would like to see the country gradually deploy other ways to get around.
Like in war this is the question of strategy. Wrong strategy usually leads to defeat. I
think the current EV fashion driven by people who missed their STEM classes is
counterproductive and probably harmful.
It might well lead to problems in the near future. You should never put all eggs into one
basket. Lightweight and emotion-driven arguments like your above just does not make the cut, if
we are taking about the strategy.
Some interesting questions are
1. If we reached "plato oil" stage (I think so), then how long it will last before Seneca
cliff? 10 year, 50 years, 100 years ? That's a big difference.
2. Will we get fusion energy driven energy generation or not.
3. Will neoliberalism be replaced in the USA by some other social system, because
neoliberalism (and connected with it imperial tendencies ("Full Spectrum Domination" doctrine),
and the corresponding level of military expenses -- money that should be allocated toward the
energy transition are simply waited on maintaining and expanding of the empire) can't reform
itself and probably will drive this country off the economic cliff, or to the WWIII (with even
worse results).
Environmentalists and activist shareholders intensified pressure on large public oil
firms to align their businesses with a net-zero scenario, while some of the international
majors acknowledged they have a part to play in the energy transition.
But the leaders of the OPEC+ group, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will continue to invest in
oil and gas because, they say, the world will still need those resources for decades, despite
the growing push against fossil fuels and investment in new supply.
Chronic underinvestment in oil and gas supply while operational oilfields mature would
lead to a supply crunch and a spike in oil prices down the road, analysts and Big Oil top
executives such as TotalEnergies' Patrick Pouyanné say.
From your link: BP's chief executive Bernard Looney wrote that forecasts of much lower
investments in oil and gas were "in many ways consistent with our approach – to reduce
our oil and gas production by 40% in the next decade.
Snip. In Russia, the chief executive of the largest Russian oil producer, state-controlled
Rosneft, warned that underinvestment in oil is setting the stage for a severe deficit in
supply.
Yes, oil production will be falling and oil prices will be rising. Anyone with half a brain
can see that. But it will have to happen before the world will be able to see what is right now
as plain as the nose on their face. Their worldview keeps them from seeing the very blatantly
obvious. Ideology will obviously alwayse trump common sense.
REPLYFRUGAL IGNORED
06/10/2021 at 8:17 pm
There are also Bagdad Bobs from IEA " "World oil supply is expected to grow at a faster rate
in 2022, with the US driving gains of 1.6 million bpd from producers outside the OPEC alliance.
"
John Kilduff of Again Capital has predicted Brent to hit $80 a barrel and WTI to trade
between $75 and $80 in the summer, thanks to robust gasoline demand. Brent is currently trading
at $71.63 per barrel, while WTI is changing hands at $69.13.
On 05/07/21 the US 10year chart formed a hammer candlestick on daily chart within a consolidation pattern. Which suggested higher
yields coming. Well little over a month later price broke below the bottom of that candlestick which suggest that the bond market
doesn't believe the inflation we have seen is here to stay. Yield headed lower.
The inflation we have had seems to be supply side due to covid. If inflation is at peak which bond market is suggesting. Oil price
might not have much more room to run higher. And I'd take it a step further and say price inflation due to a weaker dollar is starting
to real hurt places like China and they are going to act by tightening monetary policy. You think this would be positive for the
yuan and push the dollar even lower. But when you tightening monetary policy credit contracts and economic activity contracts.
I do expect oil price to rollover and head back to $50-$55 might happen from a slightly higher price from here because of lag
time between when bond market signals rollover in inflation back into deflation and when prices start reacting to this.
REPLYEULENSPIEGEL IGNORED06/11/2021
at 10:07 am
This isn't your history bond market.
Inflation doesn't really matters, what only matters is the one big question: "How much bonds does the one market member with unlimited
funds buy?".
And the time the FED was able to rise more than .25% is in the rear mirror "" when they hike now, inflation or not, all these
zombie companies and zombie banks will fail and no lawyer in the world will be able to clean up the chaos after all these insolvency
filings.
They have to talk the way out of this inflation. They have to talk until it stops, or longer. They can't hike. They can perhaps
hike again when most of the debt is inflated away "" a period with 10+% inflation and 1% bond interrest.
And yes, they can buy litterally any bond dumped onto the market "" shown this in March last year when they stopped the corona
crash in an action of one week.
I think most non-investment-banks are zombies at the moment, and more than 20% of all companies. They all will fail in less than
1 year when we would have realistic interrest rates. On the dirty end, this would mean 10%+ for all this junk out there "" even mighty
EXXON will be downgraded to B fast.
In old times the FED rates would be more than 5% now with these inflation numbers. Nobody can pay this these days.
And now in the USA "" look for how much social justice and social security laws you'll get. The FED has to provide cover for all
of them.
We in Europe will do this, too. New green deal, new CO2 taxes, better social security "" the ECB already has said they will swallow
everything dumped on the market.
So, oil 100$ the next years "" but some kind of strange dollars buying less then they used to.
This is nonsense. They have Brent crude oil prices peaking, so far, in March 2025 at $164.11. And they have WTI peaking the same
month at $132.55, $32.56 lower. There is no way the spread could be that large. Also, they have natural gas prices dropping over
the same period. Just who the hell are these "Longforcast.com" people?
Disregard anything with "forecast" in the title. They don't have a time machine, and extrapolation is a horrible metric with dynamic
markets as complex as the energy ones.
Might as well show me the tea leaves or goat entrails and tell me the price on 11 June 2027.
REPLYSHALLOW SAND IGNORED06/11/2021
at 3:58 pm
Dennis Gartman is still considered a commodities expert.
He infamously said in 2016 that WTI would never be above $44 again in his lifetime. He is still alive last I knew.
Since I have owned working interests in oil wells (1997) I have sold oil for a low of $8 and a high of $140 per barrel. 6/14 oil
sold for $99.25 per barrel. 4/20 oil sold for $15.40 per barrel.
Predicting oil prices is impossible.
About the only oil price prediction I have had right so far is that if Biden won, oil prices would rebound. Of course, we can
argue about why that is, and if there is even any connection.
There are still no drilling rigs running in the field we operate in. There are still hundreds of production wells shut in. There
are still less than 10 workover rigs running in our field. The largest operator still has a help wanted sign up in front of its office.
We finally found one summer worker, he is still in high school, but thankfully covered by our workers comp. He cannot drive our trucks,
and is limited to painting, mowing, weed control, digging with a shovel, cleaning the shops and pump houses and other tasks like
those. That's ok, because we need that, but not being able to drive is a pain. But auto ins won't allow anyone under 21 to be covered.
REPLYIRON MIKE IGNORED06/11/2021
at 11:53 am
Yea Ron i agree with Kleiber, I wouldn't take anything on that site too seriously.
REPLYOVI IGNORED06/11/2021
at 1:34 pm
The IEA is now starting to sound warnings about supply. Last week they were telling the oil companies to stop exploring and to
move toward a renewable energy future.
IEA: OPEC needs to increase supply to keep global oil markets adequately supplied
In its monthly oil report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that global oil demand is set to return to pre-pandemic
levels by the end of 2022, rising by 5.4 million bpd in 2021 and by a further 3.1 million bpd next year. The OECD accounts for 1.3
million bpd of 2022 growth while non-OECD countries contribute 1.8 million bpd. Jet and kerosene demand will see the largest increase
( 1.5 million bpd year-on-year), followed by gasoline ( 660 000 bpd year-on-year) and gasoil/diesel ( 520 000 bpd year-on-year).
World oil supply is expected to grow at a faster rate in 2022, with the US driving gains of 1.6 million bpd from producers outside
the OPEC alliance. That leaves room for OPEC to boost crude oil production by 1.4 million bpd above its July 2021-March 2022 target
to meet demand growth. In 2021, oil output from non-OPEC is set to rise 710 000 bpd, while total oil supply from OPEC could increase
by 800 000 bpd if the bloc sticks with its existing policy.
(IEA) has said that global oil demand is set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, rising by 5.4 million bpd
in 2021 and by a further 3.1 million bpd next year.
That comes to about 500,000 barrels per day monthly increase, every month until the end of 2022. I really don't believe that is
going to happen. No doubt most nations can increase production somewhat, but returning to pre-pandemic levels will be a herculean
task for most of them.
"... As bubbles peak, they combine objective signs of excess" prices rising much faster than earnings can justify" with subjective signs of mania, such as frenzied trading and borrowing. ..."
"... My research on the 10 biggest bubbles of the past century, from the US stock market in 1929 to Chinese shares in 2015, shows that prices typically rise 100 per cent in the year before the peak, with much of the gain packed into the climactic last months. That finding is closely in line with bubble studies from academics at Harvard and others. ..."
"... By those standards, there are at least five current bubblets. They include the cryptocurrency market for bitcoin and ethereum; clean energy stocks, including some of the biggest names in electric vehicles; small cap stocks, including many of the hottest pandemic stories; a basket of tech stocks that lack earnings, which is also chock-a-block with famous brands; and special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs) , which allow investors a new way to buy into private firms before they go public. ..."
"... The historical bubbles in my study did suffer midcourse setbacks on the way up, but typically those corrections were around 25 per cent and never more than 35 per cent. Beyond that point" a 35 per cent drop" the bubbles in my sample became monophasic, or stuck on a one-way downhill path. ..."
"... It is important to remember that a bubble is often a good idea gone too far. In the early 2000s, the conventional wisdom was that the dotcom bubble had fuelled mainly junk companies with business plans barely worth the napkins they were written on. Later, researchers found that, compared with other bubbles, those in the tech sector produce many start-ups that fail but also help launch major innovations. For every few dozen dotcom flame-outs, there was a giant survivor such as Google or Amazon that would go on to make the economy more productive. ..."
As bubbles peak,
they combine objective signs of excess" prices rising much faster than earnings can justify"
with subjective signs of mania, such as frenzied trading and borrowing.
To some the entire US
stock market looks bubbly given its dizzying run-up, but earnings growth has also been
extraordinarily strong through the pandemic. Beneath the surface, however, sectors of the
market from green tech to cryptocurrency show tell-tale bubble signs.
My research on the 10 biggest bubbles of the past century, from the US stock market in 1929
to Chinese shares in 2015, shows that prices typically rise 100 per cent in the year before the
peak, with much of the gain packed into the climactic last months. That finding is closely in
line with bubble studies from academics at Harvard and others.
By those standards, there are at least five current bubblets. They include the
cryptocurrency market for bitcoin and ethereum; clean energy stocks, including some of the
biggest names in electric vehicles; small cap stocks, including many of the hottest pandemic
stories; a basket of tech stocks that lack earnings, which is also chock-a-block with famous
brands; and special purpose acquisition
companies (Spacs) , which allow investors a new way to buy into private firms before they
go public.
Each of these bubblets is captured in an index that rose in the last year by around 100 per
cent, often much more, to a peak value between $500bn and $2.5tn. Day traders and other newbies
rushed in, a common symptom of late stage market manias. Now these bubbles are faltering, as
they so often do, in response to increases in long-term interest rates. What's next?
The historical bubbles in my study did suffer midcourse setbacks on the way up, but
typically those corrections were around 25 per cent and never more than 35 per cent. Beyond
that point" a 35 per cent drop" the bubbles in my sample became monophasic, or stuck on a
one-way downhill path.
For the median case, the bottom was found 70 per cent below the peak, and came just over two
years after the peak. Except for the index of small-cap pandemic stocks, the other four bubble
candidates have all experienced drops of at least 35 per cent, but also of no more than 50 per
cent (in the case of ethereum). In other words, they are not likely to resume inflating any
time soon, and they are still far from the typical bottom.
There is one new factor that could upset this historical pattern. Despite the rise in
long-term interest rates, there is plenty of liquidity sloshing around the markets, with
central banks committed to easy money as never before. The risks though are skewed to the
downside.
It is important to remember that a bubble is often a good idea gone too far. In the early
2000s, the conventional wisdom was that the dotcom bubble had fuelled mainly junk companies
with business plans barely worth the napkins they were written on. Later, researchers found
that, compared with other bubbles, those in the tech sector produce many start-ups that fail
but also help launch major innovations. For every few dozen dotcom flame-outs, there was a
giant survivor such as Google or Amazon that would go on to make the economy more
productive.
"... Just in time for Pride Month, a new exchange traded fund aims to connect with LGBTQ investors. ..."
"... LGBTQ Loyalty Holdings partners with Harris Poll to annually survey 150,000 self-identifying LGBTQ constituents across the U.S. for their views about a company's brand awareness, brand image, brand loyalty and how the firm supports the community. As noted in its prospectus , 25% of the index's weighting is derived from that survey data. ..."
Just in time for Pride Month, a new exchange traded fund aims to connect with LGBTQ investors. Two previous efforts failed to
attract enough assets.
The fund, LGBTQ + ESG100 ETF LGBT,
, launched in late May, is a passively managed, large-cap index fund that holds the top 100 U.S. companies that most align with
the LGBTQ community.
In 2019, two LGBTQ-focused ETFs were delisted: ALPS Workplace Equality Portfolio ETF and InsightShares LGBT Employment Equality
ETFs. Like this new fund, both were mostly U.S. large-cap, passive index ETFs comprising companies that received high or perfect
marks for workplace equality in the Human Rights Campaign Corporate Equality
Index , a benchmark for corporate LGBTQ policies.
The first ETF stuck around for five years, but the second barely made it two years, even though it was launched with much fanfare
by UBS. Neither gained many assets.
Bobby Blair, CEO and founder of LGBTQ Loyalty Holdings, which launched the fund with issuer ProcureAM, says community input on
holdings makes this fund different.
LGBTQ Loyalty Holdings partners with Harris Poll to annually survey 150,000 self-identifying LGBTQ constituents across the U.S.
for their views about a company's brand awareness, brand image, brand loyalty and how the firm supports the community. As noted in
its prospectus
, 25% of the index's weighting is derived from that survey data.
... the LGBTQ + ESG100 has an annual expense ratio of 0.75%.
David Milliken and Kate Holton Sat, June 5, 2021, 4:01 AM
...Hundreds of billions of dollars could flow into the coffers of governments left
cash-strapped by the COVID-19 pandemic after the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies agreed
to back a minimum global corporate tax rate of at least 15%.
Facebook said it expected it would have to pay more tax, in more countries, as a result of
the deal, which comes after eight years of talks that gained fresh impetus in recent months
after proposals from U.S. President Joe Biden's new administration.
"G7 finance ministers have reached a historic agreement to reform the global tax system to
make it fit for the global digital age," British finance minister Rishi Sunak said after
chairing a two-day meeting in London.
The meeting, hosted at an ornate 19th-century mansion near Buckingham Palace in central
London, was the first time finance ministers have met face-to-face since the start of the
pandemic.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the "significant, unprecedented commitment" would
end what she called a race to the bottom on global taxation. German finance minister Olaf Scholz said the deal was "bad news for tax havens around the
world". Yellen also saw the G7 meeting as marking a return to multilateralism under Biden and a
contrast to the approach of U.S. President Donald Trump, who alienated many U.S. allies. "What I've seen during my time at this G7 is deep collaboration and a desire to coordinate
and address a much broader range of global problems," she said.
Ministers also agreed to move towards making companies declare their environmental impact in
a more standard way so investors can decided more easily whether to fund them, a key goal for
Britain.
... ... ...
Key details remain to be negotiated over the coming months. Saturday's agreement says only
"the largest and most profitable multinational enterprises" would be affected.
... ... ...
The G7 includes the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and
Canada.
Early in the pandemic, I had been furiously writing articles about lockdowns. My phone rang
with a call from a man named Dr. Rajeev Venkayya. He is the head of a vaccine company but
introduced himself as former head of pandemic policy for the Gates Foundation.
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Emmanuel Macron slapped in face during visit to town The G7 summit: What you need to know
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His Role NOW PLAYING
I did not know it then, but I've since learned from Michael Lewis's (mostly terrible) book
The Premonition that Venkayya was, in fact, the founding father of lockdowns. While working for
George W. Bush's White House in 2005, he headed a bioterrorism study group. From his perch of
influence "" serving an apocalyptic president" he was the driving force for a dramatic change
in U.S. policy during pandemics.
He literally unleashed hell.
That was 15 years ago. At the time, I wrote about the changes I was witnessing, worrying
that new White House guidelines (never voted on by Congress) allowed the government to put
Americans in quarantine while closing their schools, businesses, and churches shuttered, all in
the name of disease containment.
I never believed it would happen in real life; surely there would be public revolt. Little
did I know, we were in for a wild ride"¦
The Man Who Lit the Match
Last year, Venkayya and I had a 30-minute conversation; actually, it was mostly an argument.
He was convinced that lockdown was the only way to deal with a virus. I countered that it was
wrecking rights, destroying businesses, and disturbing public health. He said it was our only
choice because we had to wait for a vaccine. I spoke about natural immunity, which he called
brutal. So on it went.
The more interesting question I had at the time was why this certified Big Shot was wasting
his time trying to convince a poor scribbler like me. What possible reason could there be?
The answer, I now realized, is that from February to April 2020, I was one of the few people
(along with a team of researchers) who openly and aggressively opposed what was happening.
There was a hint of insecurity and even fear in Venkayya's voice. He saw the awesome thing
he had unleashed all over the world and was anxious to tamp down any hint of opposition. He was
trying to silence me. He and others were determined to crush all dissent.
This is how it has been for the better part of the last 15 months, with social media and
YouTube deleting videos that dissent from lockdowns. It's been censorship from the
beginning.
For all the problems with Lewis's book, and there are plenty, he gets this whole backstory
right. Bush came to his bioterrorism people and demanded some huge plan to deal with some
imagined calamity. When Bush saw the conventional plan" make a threat assessment, distribute
therapeutics, work toward a vaccine" he was furious.
"This is bulls**t," the president yelled.
"We need a whole-of-society plan. What are you going to do about foreign borders? And
travel? And commerce?"
Hey, if the president wants a plan, he'll get a plan.
"We want to use all instruments of national power to confront this threat," Venkayya
reports having told colleagues.
"We were going to invent pandemic planning."
This was October 2005, the birth of the lockdown idea.
Dr. Venkayya began to fish around for people who could come up with the domestic equivalent
of Operation Desert Storm to deal with a new virus. He found no serious epidemiologists to
help. They were too smart to buy into it. He eventually bumped into the real lockdown innovator
working at Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico.
Cranks, Computers, and Cooties
His name was Robert Glass, a computer scientist with no medical training, much less
knowledge, about viruses. Glass, in turn, was inspired by a science fair project that his
14-year-old daughter was working on.
She theorized (like the cooties game from grade school) that if school kids could space
themselves out more or even not be at school at all, they would stop making each other sick.
Glass ran with the idea and banged out a model of disease control based on stay-at-home orders,
travel restrictions, business closures, and forced human separation.
Crazy right? No one in public health agreed with him but like any classic crank, this
convinced Glass even more. I asked myself, "Why didn't these epidemiologists figure it out?"
They didn't figure it out because they didn't have tools that were focused on the problem. They
had tools to understand the movement of infectious diseases without the purpose of trying to
stop them.
Genius, right? Glass imagined himself to be smarter than 100 years of experience in public
health. One guy with a fancy computer would solve everything! Well, he managed to convince some
people, including another person hanging around the White House named Carter Mecher, who became
Glass's apostle.
Please consider the following quotation from Dr. Mecher in Lewis's book: "If you got
everyone and locked each of them in their own room and didn't let them talk to anyone, you
would not have any disease."
At last, an intellectual has a plan to abolish disease" and human life as we know it too! As
preposterous and terrifying as this is "" a whole society not only in jail but solitary
confinement" it sums up the whole of Mecher's view of disease. It's also completely wrong.
Pathogens are part of our world; they are generated by human contact. We pass them onto each
other as the price for civilization, but we also evolved immune systems to deal with them.
That's 9th-grade biology, but Mecher didn't have a clue.
Fanatics Win the Day
Jump forward to March 12, 2020. Who exercised the major influence over the decision to close
schools, even though it was known at that time that SARS-CoV-2 posed almost risk to people
under the age of 20? There was even evidence that they did not spread COVID-19 to adults in any
serious way.
Didn't matter. Mecher's models" developed with Glass and others" kept spitting out a
conclusion that shutting down schools would drop virus transmission by 80%. I've read his memos
from this period" some of them still not public" and what you observe is not science but
ideological fanaticism in play.
Based on the timestamp and length of the emails, he was clearly not sleeping much.
Essentially he was Lenin on the eve of the Bolshevik Revolution. How did he get his way?
There were three key elements: public fear, media and expert acquiescence, and the baked-in
reality that school closures had been part of "pandemic planning" for the better part of 15
years. Essentially, the lockdowners, over the course of 15 years, had worn out the opposition.
Lavish funding, attrition of wisdom within public health, and ideological fanaticism
prevailed.
Figuring out how our expectations for normal life were so violently foiled, how our happy
lives were brutally crushed, will consume serious intellectuals for many years. But at least we
now have a first draft of history.
As with almost every revolution in history, a small minority of crazy people with a cause
prevailed over the humane rationality of multitudes. When people catch on, the fires of
vengeance will burn very hot.
The task now is to rebuild a civilized life that is no longer so fragile as to allow insane
people to lay waste to all that humanity has worked so hard to build.
Nicholas Megaw in London Sun, June 6, 2021, 8:00 PM
The UK's competition regulator has been accused of "putting foxes in charge of the henhouse"
after asking the banking industry's own lobby group to design a supervisory body to combat the
dominance of big banks. Dozens of organisations including fintech start-ups, established tech
groups like Experian and Equifax, consumer representatives and a cross-party group of MPs have
raised concerns over the Competition and Markets Authority's plan to use proposals drawn up by
UK Finance as the basis for a consultation on the future of so-called open banking rules. Open
banking forces banks to share valuable customer data with other financial services providers,
allowing smaller firms to make faster lending decisions or offer new services such as budgeting
tools.
China's Foreign Ministry blasted the resurgent interest in the Covid-19 lab-origin theory,
noting that the journalist behind a report about Wuhan scientists falling ill is the same one
who peddled lies that led to the Iraq War.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin took aim at Michael R. Gordon, a national
security correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and one of the authors of the report that
added fuel to speculation about Covid-19's lab origin.
"Not long ago, Michael R. Gordon, an American journalist, by quoting a so-called
"˜previously undisclosed US intelligence report,' hinted [at] a far-fetched connection
between the "˜three sick staff' at the Wuhan lab and the Covid-19 outbreak," Wang said
at a briefing on Friday.
"Nineteen years ago, it was this very reporter who concocted false information by citing
unsubstantiated sources about Iraq's "˜attempt to acquire nuclear weapons,' which
directly led to the Iraq War," he charged, referring to the 2003 US invasion.
The WSJ
piece , published on May 23, cites "a previously undisclosed US intelligence report" as
saying that three researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology fell seriously ill in
November 2019 with symptoms "consistent" with Covid-19 as well as a seasonal flu.
The report got picked up by other mainstream media, which recently began shifting their
coverage on Covid-19's origins from outright dismissing theories that the virus was man-made
to admitting that a lab leak remains a possibility.
Furthermore, I wouldn't personally point to Gordon as the source for the "Wuhan Lab Leak
Hypothesis" "" I would point to the Jewish neocon Josh Rogin.
Rogin, like Gordon, spent years promoting various atrocity hoaxes in the Middle East and
pushing wars for Israel, and is the original source for the version of the "Wuhan Lab theory,"
that is currently circulating, writing a
Washington Post column promoting the hoax on April 14, 2020.
The point of course is that everywhere you look, there are neocons "" most of them Jewish ""
promoting this Wuhan Lab stuff. They are the absolute source of the claim "" they and a Falun
Gong Hong Kong CIA feminist woman, Li-Meng Yan.
She is claiming to be a "whistleblower," despite the fact that she in no way meets the
definition of that term. The term necessarily implies insider knowledge "" usually, a
whistleblower is an employee or former employee of the organization they are blowing the
whistle on.
Though none of the media promoting her says it outright, there is an implication that she
worked at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. She did not. She worked at a university in Hong Kong
when she was funded by Steve Bannon to write a paper making the claim that the supposed
coronavirus is a Chinese bioweapon.
Bannon has recently been associated with Guo Wengui, a billionaire who was exiled from China
for fraud and various crimes. In June of last year, Bannon declared that Guo is now the real
ruler of China in a bizarre video on a boat.
While they were on the boat in front of the Statue of Liberty saying they were going to
"overthrow the government of China," they flew planes around with signs announcing their new
government.
No one understood what was going on, and even Fox News
reported on "confusion" regarding the banners and the livestream on the boat. The
livestream has since been deleted, and there is no news from the Federal State of New China.
But there is a Wikipedia page documenting this
incredibly strange event.
Guo also runs a fake news website (I use that term in the most literal sense) where he
published the Hunter Biden footjob videos.
The point is: this is a very weird operation, and it is absurd to take a person funded by
these people seriously, as Tucker Carlson shamefully has.
(I'm not attacking Tucker over this, he's overall great and is sometimes just really slow on
the uptake, unfortunately "" but it is shameful to get involved with a Hong Kong woman who was
literally given money by Steve Bannon and his "Federation of New China" group to write a fake
science paper.)
To pretend that she is a whistleblower, to pretend that political organizations funding
papers with a predetermined outcome is serious science, is non-serious behavior.
The first time I heard the Wuhan lab leak theory it was being promoted by neocon extremist
Tom Cotton. It was then promoted by neocon extremist Mike Pompeo, who was then in the process
of trying to start a war with China. Now, it is being promoted by the Jews of CNN.
There is no one involved in claiming that the supposed coronavirus came from a Chinese lab
who doesn't have vested interests in starting a war with the Chinese. This goes for all of
these Jews, as well as Steve Bannon, who has actually declared "overthrowing the government of
China" (his words) to be his goal.
It's very obvious to see how people who want a war with China would use this hoax, and it is
great that China is making the link to the Iraqi WMD hoax. It truly is the same thing.
The United States is a country with a lot of problems. None of those problems are the fault
of China. China is not promoting gay sex to children, they are not flooding us with millions of
brown people, they did not steal our election, they did not take all of our freedoms and
collapse the economy.
Our enemies are domestic and they are Jewish. Any attempt to fear-monger and attack China is
intended as a distraction from what is going on in this country, and intended to stoke a
war.
Furthermore, this "lab leak" nonsense is designed to get people to continue to believe in
this coronavirus hoax.
Though none of the media promoting her says it outright, there is an implication that
she worked at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. She did not. She worked at a university in
Hong Kong when she was funded by Steve Bannon to write a paper making the claim that the
supposed coronavirus is a Chinese bioweapon.
Bannon has recently been associated with Guo Wengui, a billionaire who was exiled from
China for fraud and various crimes. In June of last year, Bannon declared that Guo is now
the real ruler of China in a bizarre video on a boat.
This style of presentation is updated "internet culture" gonzo that stands on the
shoulders of Hunter Thompson, Tom Wolfe, and in a sense Mark Twain.
That fact that today's Anglospheric system no longer has a place within itself for this
type of "dominant narrative-jamming" creativity, and to write like this means one has chosen
to become a hunted outcast, means this culture is in a death spiral. It's no longer a
self-renewing organism, but simply a collection of isolated biomass units used and thrown
away by the masters.
"Nineteen years ago, it was this very reporter who concocted false information by citing
unsubstantiated sources about Iraq's "˜attempt to acquire nuclear weapons,' which
directly led to the Iraq War," he charged, referring to the 2003 US invasion.
Either the neo-cons thought no one would notice or the noe-cons didn't notice
themselves.
I'm leaning towards the latter, especially with sloppy drunk Steve Bannon and a "Falun
Gong Hong Kong CIA feminist woman" in the mix. Is this really the best they can do?
These times we're living in are absolutely surreal. Not surprised though, we've been doing
this for a long time now. Alas, a great many of my fellow White Americans will fall for it
completely & be all in for a war with China. None of them ever even contemplating what
that would mean for us & the world. But, these are the same people who boast "we're
number one" when we rank at or near the bottom in positive stats for all developed nations,
beset with crippling societal ills. The same people who think we can vote ourselves out of
this mess & Trump will win in "˜24 & somehow save the day. The same people who
think our best days are ahead when our productivity base has been utterly gutted, our
infrastructure is collapsing & our ability to maintain it & the skill set needed to
sustain that productivity/infrastructure is slipping away. The same people who boast of "muh
freedoms" when their freedoms & their children's future is being pulled from right under
their feet. The same people who think we'll always be on top even when every example of
history shows that every empire in history has collapsed. We're racing toward a cliff but
they still think "god" is on their side & won't let it happen or we'll stay on top
because, well, "we're America"..
Utter denial & abject delusion seem to be a central aspect of our people..
" There is no one involved in claiming that the supposed coronavirus came from a Chinese
lab who doesn't have vested interests in starting a war with the Chinese. This goes for all
of these Jews, as well as Steve Bannon, who has actually declared "overthrowing the
government of China" (his words) to be his goal."
" History often repeats itself, first as a tragedy and second as a farce"
Karl Marx.
The tragedy of the WMD of Iraq follows many other tragedies that got young Americans to
spill their blood for the sake of special interests making a killing as war profiteers. The
farce of " China spread the Corona virus will the biggest tragedy to hit America if the
waning bald eagle tries to poke the rising dragon.
Andrew Anglin, is one of the few American journalists who stand boldly for the truth. Not
bad for someone labelled a Neo Nazi by Wikipedia.
"The problem of empires is that they think they are so powerful that they can afford
small inaccuracies and mistakes. "But problems keep piling up. And, at some point, they are
no longer able to cope with them. And the United States is now walking the Soviet Union's
path, and its gait is confident and steady."
The current consensus that Covid was likely a Wuhan lab leak was triggered by an article
by Nicholas Wade, a former science writer for the NY Times and an impeccably
establishmentarian journalist. Previous attempts by right wingers or maverick scientists to
advance this hypothesis were ignored or scorned by the establishment press. Wade could not be
so easily dismissed. His article, plus the release of emails by Fauci acknowledging the
possibility of a lab-created virus (which he publicly ridiculed) and the revelation that
Fauci had funded bat research at Wuhan, have changed the game entirely. My own suspicion is
that the Biden administration is preparing to throw Fauci under the bus and has signaled the
press that he is now fair game. He has served his purpose and can now be used as a scapegoat.
It is unlikely that the Wuhan release will ever be definitively proven. It is more important
to realize that this research is not restricted to Wuhan or China and that steps should be
taken to shut down all such research world-wide, including the USA, lest we have a succession
of these disasters.
The USA has been using bio-warfare for 200 years plus and can NEVER be trusted not to
carry on such research. It controls c.200 labs, worldwide, where research into pathogens and
vectors, particularly arthropods, and the collection of pathogens, is carried out. It used
biological agents in Korea in the early 50s, and against Cuba (African Swine Fever and
dengue) in the 70s, and God knows where else, and against its own people, most infamously the
Tuskegee syphilis abomination. And it is responsible for SARS CoV2, you can be sure.
The West has been trying to bring down China since they tried to turn them all into opium
addicts. Americans were complicit with the British in this and many of the so-called deep
state players made their money from the opium trade. Apparently the same families control the
present day drugs trade and the laundering of the profits from it; the so-called drug cartels
are mostly minor actors well below those who run the operation at the top. Members of the
cartels are often sacrificed but those at the top remain the same.
@Ber t we have is the Josh Hawley demand to declassify everything related to Covid from
day-1, and since he made that proposal, it has been crickets from everyone else, which is
again indicative that no one in the power elite has any incentive or goal to do more than
batter their usual targets.
All that said "" the best practices at this stage of overwhelming deception is to start
with what we can in fact establish and prove as actual plain fact, and proceed from there. If
you start from what you suspect or theorize, you will soon be enmeshed in fevered
propositions ("missiles hit the pentagon on 9/11") that crap all over the genuine facts and
do nothing but hand-craft a made-to-order, wild goose chase. This is very welcome by those
who want to control the entire denouement, to serve their own agenda.
"¦ many other tragedies that got young Americans to spill their blood for the
sake of special interests making a killing as war profiteers.
Agree the main thrust of your post, Joe.
It is also worth remembering that very many innocent souls in countries across the world
have been going about their daily lives when they were attacked, maimed and killed, their
houses destroyed, infrastructure wrecked etc by those same young Americans. Some countries at
this very hour are occupied and are being looted by the same.
Perhaps not a comfortable thought for Americans to add in as they see their country now
descending into certifiable lunacy.
But what goes around does have a habit of coming around, sooner or later.
@Anon t Ron Unz has been saying from the beginning. If you look at it geostrategically,
this is most plausible conclusion. They released the virus in China but those who created it
suffered a massive blowback and even worse China came out of it even stronger than ever
before. They were hoping China would crumble but instead got stronger while they weakened.
That's why they are fanning out a major Anti-China propaganda campaign to contain her now
openly with an overwhelming support of western citizens. This frenziness displayed by western
politicians is the reflection that China is on the verge an unstoppable economic powerhouse
within a few years and they need to put the brakes right now. It is an implicit admission of
desperation. The tussle between China and the US is going to dramatically intensify.
A country can't bring another country down by giving it "Most Favored Nation Trading
Status".
Then sending all it's major corporations there to make big deals.
And how has it served the United States where practically every item, pill in the US is
"Made in China"?
The American people were sold out decades ago in order for the 1% and their Congressional
lackeys to make major bucks. We were even working with them to create a deadly virus!
"Over the past five years, the S&P 500 stock index has more than doubled. For the past
10 years, it has nearly quadrupled," says Orman. "If you have left your portfolios on
autopilot, that could likely mean that you now own more stock than you intend to, or
should."
Left to their own devices, your increasingly valuable stocks may have started to account for
an even larger portion of your account
... ... ...
Orman cites a recent analysis from Fidelity Investments on the retirement plans the company
handles. Fidelity estimates about 20% of savers own more stock than they'd recommend for
someone of their age.
Whereas climate change issues are the presumptive reasons behind the latest wave of investor revolts at the oil and gas giants,
lurking beneath the surface is a growing sense of apprehension about Big Oil's strategy and failure to generate adequate returns for
shareholders in recent decades.
The naked truth is that Exxon and its cohorts have severely underperformed the broader market over the last two decades in terms of
total returns to shareholders, implying the sector's woes are long-term and strategic rather than short-term and cyclical.
Chronic underperformance
XOM
Source: CNN Money
Big Oil's underperformance relative to the market is clearly evident whether you are looking at 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, or even
20-year timespans.
For instance, since 2015, Exxon shares have returned a -2.5% compound annual loss based on share prices and dividends, a far cry
from the average annual gain of +14.4% by the
S&P 500
over the timeframe.
Over the past two decades, Exxon's compound annual return has clocked in at +4.2%, still considerably lower than the broad market
benchmark's return of +7.1%.
... ... ...
Exxon is hardly alone, with none of its peers, including Chevron,
Royal Dutch Shell
(NYSE:RDS.A),
BP
Inc.
(NYSE:BP), and
Total
(NYSE:TOT) coming close to matching the returns by
the broader share market over the past decade.
In fact, on an inflation-adjusted U.S. dollar basis, returns by Exxon, Shell, and BP have been negative over the past five years, a
period which coincided with the biggest bull market in the history of the stock market.
The renewable energy conundrum
You cannot blame the oil majors for continuing to engage in a lot of hand-wringing at a time when investors are demanding they pump
less oil and transition to cleaner energy.
For the oil majors, successfully transitioning to green energy companies is not going to be a walk in the park because these
companies have to ride two horses.
That's the case because the majority are already battling dwindling cash flows which means they cannot afford to gamble with
whatever little is left. Oil prices have been on a downtrend since 2014, a situation that has only worsened during the pandemic.
Oil and gas firms are still grappling with the best way to presently use dwindling cash flows; in effect, they are still weighing
whether it's worthwhile to at least partially reinvent themselves as renewables businesses while also determining which low-carbon
energy markets offer the most attractive future returns.
Most renewable ventures, like solar and wind projects, tend to churn out cash flows akin to annuities for several decades after
initial up-front capital expenditure with generally low price risk as opposed to their current models with faster payback but high
oil price risk. With the need to generate quick shareholder returns, some fossil fuel companies have actually been scaling back
their clean energy investments.
Energy companies are also faced with another conundrum: Diminishing returns from their clean energy investments.
A
paper
published in Science Direct
last August says that dramatic reductions in the cost of wind and solar have been leading to an even
bigger reduction in revenue inflows leading to falling profits. This is particularly true for wind energy as later deployments of
wind usually have lower market value than earlier ones due to wind energy revenue declining more rapidly than cost reductions. Solar
is more resilient, with technological progress approximately balancing out the revenue degradation, which perhaps explains why
solar
stocks have gone ballistic.
Adding wind and solar to our grid tends to reduce electricity prices during peak generation times: Indeed, electricity prices in
California can come down to zero during long sunny durations. This was not a problem for early deployments but is becoming a major
concern as renewables increasingly play a bigger part in our electricity generation mix.
But, ultimately, Big Oil will have to take the plunge and engage in drastic internal restructuring and product cycle transitions
even as activists like Engine No.1 promise to continue turning the screw. As Charlie Penner of Engine No.1 has told
FT
, the
energy transition is happening faster than expected and has undermined Big Oil's assumptions about long-term demand for its oil.
"The bots' mission: To deliver restaurant meals cheaply and efficiently, another leap in
the way food comes to our doors and our tables." The semiautonomous vehicles were
engineered by Kiwibot, a company started in 2017 to game-change the food delivery
landscape...
In May, Kiwibot sent a 10-robot fleet to Miami as part of a nationwide pilot program
funded by the Knight Foundation. The program is driven to understand how residents and
consumers will interact with this type of technology, especially as the trend of robot
servers grows around the country.
And though Broward County is of interest to Kiwibot, Miami-Dade County officials jumped
on board, agreeing to launch robots around neighborhoods such as Brickell, downtown Miami and
several others, in the next couple of weeks...
"Our program is completely focused on the residents of Miami-Dade County and the way
they interact with this new technology. Whether it's interacting directly or just sharing
the space with the delivery bots,"
said Carlos Cruz-Casas, with the county's Department of Transportation...
Remote supervisors use real-time GPS tracking to monitor the robots. Four cameras are
placed on the front, back and sides of the vehicle, which the supervisors can view on a
computer screen. [A spokesperson says later in the article "there is always a remote and
in-field team looking for the robot."] If crossing the street is necessary, the robot
will need a person nearby to ensure there is no harm to cars or pedestrians. The plan is to
allow deliveries up to a mile and a half away so robots can make it to their destinations in
30 minutes or less.
Earlier Kiwi tested its sidewalk-travelling robots around the University of California at
Berkeley, where
at least one of its robots burst into flames . But the Sun-Sentinel reports that "In
about six months, at least 16 restaurants came on board making nearly 70,000
deliveries...
"Kiwibot now offers their robotic delivery services in other markets such as Los Angeles
and Santa Monica by working with the Shopify app to connect businesses that want to employ
their robots." But while delivery fees are normally $3, this new Knight Foundation grant "is
making it possible for Miami-Dade County restaurants to sign on for free."
A video
shows the reactions the sidewalk robots are getting from pedestrians on a sidewalk, a dog
on a leash, and at least one potential restaurant customer looking forward to no longer
having to tip human food-delivery workers.
...Analysts at Goldman Sachs""in October""ran the numbers on the stock market impact of
previous capital-gains tax hikes. While there is only a modest impact on the stock market as a
whole, momentum stocks usually get socked before they are levied, they found. That makes
sense""investors logically are more motivated to sell the stocks where they would save the most
by avoiding higher capital-gains taxes.
The last time capital-gains taxes were hiked, in 2013, the wealthiest households sold 1% of
their equity assets, the Goldman analysts found. According to the
Federal Reserve's distributional financial account data , the top 1% held $17.79 trillion
of equities and mutual funds in the fourth quarter of 2020""so a 1% selling of stocks this time
would be $178 billion. (The most recent Internal Revenue Service breakdown, from 2018, found
that millionaires accounted for just over 500,000 filers or about 0.4% of the total.)
Marching in ideological lockstep is less forgivable in a society where one has a choice in
the matter.
...In this country, scientists, bureaucrats, journalists and executives of Big Tech
companies suppressed the story not out of fear of imprisonment or death, but of their own
volition, out of ideological or even venal motives. You may well ask: Whose culpability is
greater?
It's not simply that the lab-leak theory was "debunked," as news organizations repeatedly
told us when anyone tried to raise it a year ago. It wasn't even permitted to be considered.
Discussion of the topic was deliberately extinguished on tech platforms, in the respectable
scientific journals and in newsrooms.
...Thanks to a recent release of emails under the Freedom of Information Act, we now know
that some of the scientists dismissing the idea had themselves expressed concerns that the
zoonotic explanation they were publicly championing might not be right. We also know that in
the case of the Lancet letter
, some of the correspondents were involved in similar research and had a strong professional
interest in denying the possibility of an engineered virus.
...Last year, many scientists beclowned themselves by bowing to the prevailing political
pieties with their absurd assertion that taking part in protests on behalf of Black Lives
Matter was literally salubrious, whereas taking part in protests against lockdowns was lethally
reckless.
If too many American scientists failed to help us get a proper understanding of the origins
of Covid, they seem to have been abetted by like-minded people in the permanent bureaucracy.
Emails to and from Anthony Fauci uncovered last week show that while there were some genuinely
diligent officials determined to get to the truth, too many in positions of power seemed keen
to stamp out a proper investigation.
As Katherine Eban
reported in Vanity Fair last week, officials from two separate bureaus in the State
Department warned against a proper investigation for fear of opening a "can of worms."
Again we have good grounds to suspect that officials in a bureaucracy that had already
undermined Donald Trump's presidency with baseless allegations about Russian collusion seemed
intent on suppressing any suggestion, however well-supported it might be, that Trump officials
might be right about a critical issue of state.
Yet the largest responsibility for the failure to consider in a timely fashion the lab-leak
theory lies with the media.
Journalists were once marked by their curiosity. Now the only thing that's curious about
many of them is their lack of curiosity when a story doesn't fit their priors.
...It seems increasingly likely that Chinese officials mishandled research and
misrepresented and misinformed the public. But they did so under pain of punishment, even
death, in a system designed to suppress that kind of information.
In this country, constitutionally protected, free and independent scientists, bureaucrats,
journalists and others did the same. What's their excuse?
"... As I argued three weeks ago, this sentiment pattern suggests that the market may remain in a fairly narrow range for the next several months. ..."
"... be on the lookout for when the market timers remain bullish in the face of declines, or bearish in the wake of rallies. That will indicate that a bigger decline or rally is in store. ..."
"... In the meantime, the market timers' behavior suggests both market rallies and declines will be subdued. That's good news to the extent you were worried that a major new bear market is about to begin, but bad news if you were hoping for a more sustained rally. ..."
This quick jumping onto and off of the bullish and bearish bandwagons has become the new
normal, as you can see from the table below.
... ... ...
As I argued three weeks ago, this sentiment pattern suggests that the market may remain
in a fairly narrow range for the next several months. The contrarian bet is that the
market will finally break out of that trading range whenever the market timers stubbornly hold
onto their sentiment beliefs in the face of the market moving in the opposite direction.
That is, be on the lookout for when the market timers remain bullish in the face of
declines, or bearish in the wake of rallies. That will indicate that a bigger decline or rally
is in store.
In the meantime, the market timers' behavior suggests both market rallies and declines
will be subdued. That's good news to the extent you were worried that a major new bear market
is about to begin, but bad news if you were hoping for a more sustained rally.
... ... ...
Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks
investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at [email protected] .
Job gains in May were led by leisure and hospitality, with the sector adding 292,000 jobs.
Payrolls grew by
559,000 last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, up from a revised 278,000 in
April, which marked a sharp drop from March's figure.
The labor recovery has slowed from earlier in the year -- in March, the economy added
785,000 jobs
... The labor-force participation rate, the share of adults working or looking for work,
edged slightly lower in May to 61.6%, down from 63.3% in February 2020.
Republicans, always eager to snatch the bread from the mouths of the poor, are blaming
unemployment benefits for the reluctance of workers to return to jobs. In some red states,
they already are snatching it.
But more men are returning to work than are women. Doesn't that prove that unemployment
benefits are not holding back former workers?
I'll bet more women will return to work in September, after schools start up in-person
classes.
William Lamb
Republican turn a blind on helping people, except themselves. They would rather have one
being a slave and get pay less then nothing with little perks in making less then high
quality item that will still have defects, even if we pride our workmanship that is suppose
to equal to none. It would like being in 1950s, when there was not much world competition,
when world economy was still recovering from WW2.
I guessed Republican want American to continue working by low paying wages so they can
enrich themselves, and show that America can still produce things with slave wages.
johm moore
Most of the jobs are insufficient to support a reasonable quality of life. A job today is
about like a half a job pre-NAFTA and the job export process in terms of the quality of life
that it supports.
Bryson Marsh
If UI was holding back employment, then why are we adding so many low wage jobs? The missing
jobs are in *middle income* sectors.
David Chait
I wouldn't call people returning to work "new" jobs, that just seems disingenuous.
rich ullsmith
Asset prices rise when the jobs report is lukewarm. Thank you, Federal Reserve. May I have
another.
Sam Trotter
It should be made mandatory to publish the offered wage/rate. I see so many fake jobs posted
on LinkedIn with no description of bill rate for contract positions or Base+Bonus for
Full-Time roles. Too many mass scam messages.
The percentage of people quitting their jobs, meanwhile, also rose to a record 2.8% among
private-sector workers. That's a full percentage point higher than a year ago, when the
so-called quits rate fell to a seven-year low.
...A recent study by Bank of America, for example, found that job switchers earned an extra
13% in wages from their new positions. That's a big chunk of money.
...Normally people who quit their jobs are ineligible for unemployment benefits, but they
can get an exemption in many states for health, safety or child-care reasons.
About half of the states, all led by Republican governors, plan to stop giving out the
federal benefit by early July to push people back into the labor force. Economists will be
watching closely to see how many people go back to work.
If nothing else, this scenario will lead to a radical reshaping of how we as a species go
about doing logistics. If the pandemic hasn't called into question the application of JIT
logistics for all industries, then the loss of cheap diesel certainly will. Even if long haul
electric trucks become a thing, it will require a different approach to matters.
Cars are otherwise a solved issue with EVs. There's nothing that an ICE can really offer
over an EV. Trucking and heavy industry is another matter, and that's where problems will be.
Frankly, I welcome this uprooting of a paradigm that has no resilience built in whatsoever.
There are a lot of things that can be done to mitigate problems due to declining oil
production. When it comes to SA, they can start using natural gas from Ghawar or Qatar to
replace fuel oil for power generation during especially summer.
Okay, first point: Qatar has plenty of natural gas. The problem is they are in a feud with
Saudi and they do not trade with each other:
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with
Qatar in mid-2017 after accusing the country of supporting terrorism. Qatar has repeatedly
denied the accusations. The boycotting countries, known as the Arab quartet, also cited
political differences with Qatar over Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Second point: Saudi does not have nearly enough natural gas to power their own power plants
and desalination plants:
New York CNN Business --
Saudi Arabia has placed a huge bet on American natural gas.
In a sign of shifting energy fortunes, Saudi Aramco announced a mega preliminary
agreement on Wednesday to buy 5 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year from a Port
Arthur, Texas export project that's under development.
If completed, the purchase from San Diego-based Sempra Energy (SRE) would be one of the
largest LNG deals ever signed, according to consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.
But this may change. Saudi is desperate for natural gas and this has led them to try to make
amends with Qatar:
(CNN)Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies agreed on Tuesday to restore diplomatic relations
with Qatar and restart flights to and from the country, ending a three-year boycott of the tiny
gas-rich nation.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with
Qatar in mid-2017 after accusing the country of supporting terrorism. Qatar has repeatedly
denied the accusations.
The boycotting countries, known as the Arab quartet, also cited political differences
with Qatar over Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. Doha, unlike its Gulf neighbors, has friendly
relations with Tehran, supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and has hosted groups
affiliated with the Islamist group.
Qatar's only land border -- which it shares with Saudi Arabia -- was sealed shut.
Boycotting countries closed their airspace to Qatar, and nearby Bahrain and the UAE closed
their maritime borders to ships carrying the Qatari flag.
REPLYRATIONALLUDDITE IGNORED
06/08/2021 at 8:29 pm
Fantastic Ron. Too many people practising truth by assertion and liar's bluff / wishful
thinking. They won't change, but you persuade others whom are genuinely seeking the truth and
can distinguish between evidence supported logic and security blanket speculation.
SA is going to end badly, as too will fever dreams that don't realise that their electric
transition is a mirage – largely it's all fossil fuels in disguise and totally parasitic
on upon the peak energy infrastructure of previous and current fossil fuel excess calories.
We may have an Electric Middle Ages (Ugo Bardi), but unless a new energy source AT LEAST as
energy dense and net positive as FF is discovered like yesterday then this lovely wealth Blip
we all enjoyed is going away.
The media is buzzing with claims of an "Economic Boom" in 2021. While the economy will most
certainly grow in 2021, the question is how much is already "baked in?"
"The economy has entered a period of supercharged growth. Instead of fizzling, it could
potentially remain stronger than it was during the pre-pandemic era into 2023.
Economists now expect the second quarter to grow at a pace of 10%, and they expect growth
for 2021 to be north of 6.5%. In the past decade, only a few quarters gross domestic product
growing at even 3%."
The premise is that strong "pent up" demand will sustain the economic recovery over the next
few years.
However, since market lows in 2020, the market surge has not only recouped all of those
losses but has rocketed to all-time highs on expectations of surging earnings growth.
"Vaccines and herd immunity continue to bring COVID cases down, and the economic reopening
continues to kick into a higher gear. Such is what the data is starting to show. Across
economic metrics, from the gross domestic product ( GDP ) to retail sales and job growth, boom
conditions are evident ."
She is correct in her statement. However, there is a difference between an "economic boom"
and a "recovery." As shown in the chart of GDP growth below, the U.S. has already experienced a
very sharp "economic recovery" from the recessionary lows. (I have included estimates for the
rest of 2020, which shows a return to trend growth.)
The following chart shows the economic recovery against the massive dumps of liquidity
pumped into the economy. (Estimates run through the end of 2021 using economist's
assumptions.)
Can't Recoup Losses
Certain areas of the economy, like airlines, hotels, and cruise ships, have yet to recover
to pre-pandemic levels. However, those industries only make up a relatively small amount of
overall economic activity. Furthermore, these industries will continue to struggle for some
time as individuals will not take "two vacations" this year since they missed last year. That
activity is now forever lost.
Yes, the economy will recover most likely to pre-pandemic levels this year due to stimulus
injections, but as
discussed previously , what then?
"The biggest problem with more stimulus is the increase in the debt required to fund it.
There is no historical precedent, anywhere globally, that shows increased debt levels lead to
more robust economic growth rates or prosperity. Since 1980, the overall increase in debt has
surged to levels that currently usurp the entirety of economic growth. With economic growth
rates now at the lowest levels on record, the change in debt continues to divert more tax
dollars away from productive investments into the service of debt and social welfare."
Just as it is with investing, getting "back to even" is not the same thing as "organic
growth."
"In calculus, the second derivative , or the second-order derivative , of a function f is
the derivative of the derivative of f." – Wikipedia.
In English, the "second derivative" measures how the rate of change of a quantity is itself
changing. Since we measure GDP growth on an annual rate of change basis, the larger the economy
grows, the lower the rate of change will be. Here is a simplistic example go GDP growth:
In year 1, GDP = $1. In the second year, GDP grows to $2. The annual rate of change is
100%. However, in year 3, even though the economy grows to $3, the annual rate of change
falls to just 50%.
Given the long-term historical correlation between economic growth, corporate earnings, and
annualized returns, the reversion to trend growth has implications for investors. As Liz
notes:
"Using three broad ranges for GDP growth historically, the lowest range (when the economy
is barely growing or in recession) is accompanied by the highest annualized stock market
performance. GDP is only slightly back into positive territory on an annualized basis.
However, the strong growth expected in the second quarter will push GDP into the highest
zone. At that level, stocks have historically posted a negative annualized return."
The reason is that once economic growth reaches higher levels, stocks have climbed to levels
incorporating those expectations. In other words, when things are as "good as they can get,"
stocks begin to reprice for slower future growth rates.
That is the phase we are at currently.
How Much Pent Up Demand Is There Anyway
The main driver of the expected recovery from a "recessionary" low stems from the question
of how much "pent up" demand currently exists?
If we look at durable goods as an example, such would suggest that much of the demand for
long-lasting products got pulled forward by consumers over the last 12-months.
Of course, if we broaden that measure to retails sales which make up ~40% of the personal
consumption expenditures (PCE) index , we see much the same.
Given PCE, which comprises nearly 70% of GDP, has already recovered much of pandemic-related
decline, how much "pent up" demand remains.
However, wage growth outside of personal transfer payments (i.e., stimulus) hasn't
recovered. It is impossible to sustain higher rates of economic growth without wage growth.
Importantly, as we saw in January and February following the $900 billion stimulus bill
passage, there was a short-lived surge of activity. However, once individuals spent the money,
activity quickly faded. We saw the same with retail sales in April following the American
Rescue Plan, which sent out $1400 checks.
After the $1400 checks get spent, what will be the driver for continued consumption at
previous rates? Further, given the impact of a larger economy (as it recovers), the rate of
change will decline markedly in the months to come.
Earnings Growth Inflection
"Earnings growth has a high correlation to stock market performance, but with time lags
that are less well-understood. We are about halfway through the first quarter S&P 500
earnings season and so far, the results are exceptionally strong." – Liz Ann
Sonders
That is correct, and given the high correlation between earnings and market returns, we come
back to the same question. Has the advance in the market accounted for the rebound in earnings?
More importantly, what happens when that growth reverses?
"Relative to last year's second-quarter plunge of nearly -31% year-over-year, expectations
are that S&P 500 earnings will be up more than 46% in this year's first quarter. The
second quarter will boast a whopping 60% increase. Such should be the inflection point in
terms of the year-over-year growth rate." – Liz Ann Sonders
The problem is the S&P rose to levels that earnings growth will have difficulty
supporting, particularly as the stimulus fades from the system. As with economic growth, the
2nd derivative of earnings growth is now a headwind for the markets.
Notably, the outsized growth of the market reflects repetitive interventions into the
financial markets by the Fed. Those interventions detached financial asset growth from their
long-term correlation to GDP growth, where corporate revenue comes from. Historically, when the
S&P
500 becomes separated from economic growth, a reversion occurred.
Currently, analysts are expecting earnings to surge well above economic growth rates.
However, the flaw in the analysis is the assumption earnings growth will continue its current
trend.
While there will be an economic recovery to pre-pandemic levels, a recovery is very
different from an expansion.
As Liz concludes:
"Optimism is extremely elevated. Such is certainly justified by stock market behavior over
the past year and recent economic releases. But some curbing of enthusiasm may be warranted
given the history of the stock market as an uncanny 'sniffer-outer' of economic inflection
points."
As she goes on to point out, this is not a time for FOMO-driven investment decision-making.
The reality is that the supports that drove the economic recovery will not support an ongoing
economic expansion. One is self-sustaining organic growth from productive activity, and the
other is not.
The risk of disappointment is high. And so are the costs of being "wilfully blind" to the
dangers.
Biden Admin proposing elimination of IDC expensing and percentage depletion, among other tax
preferences.
Elimination of IDC expensing will affect US shale.
Percentage depletion only affects small producers. We can make it without percentage
depletion. Will just result in us paying more income tax. But lower 48 onshore conventional
production in US is below 2 million barrels per day and slowly falling. Hopefully we will be
permitted to continue to produce oil for the many uses of it besides light transport.
As long as Biden doesn't try to sell these as "Big Oil Tax breaks" I'm not going to
complain.
I think elimination of these tax preference items will lower US production, which will
increase oil prices. US is historically the only major producer that has desired low oil
prices. That is because we are still a net importer of crude oil.
Now that Trump is gone, it appears US also is not too concerned about oil prices.
What a turnaround from this time, last year. We had just reactivated our wells at the end of
May, 2020, after oil had went negative on April 20.
Yesterday WTI closed around $69.50.
President Biden could turn out to be very good for small conventional lower 48 onshore
producers. He just needs to recognize that our oil is still needed, and will still be needed
for decades.
I will keep beating my drum. Stripper well oil is small footprint. Existing source. Very low
methane emissions from upstream operations. Employs the highest number of persons per BO.
Employs largely rural populace. Owned by small business. Family owned. Pays a lot in local
taxes. Is very low decline. Predictable. Uses the smallest amount of materials, such as
plastics and steel. I can go on, but won't.
Stripper well doesn't need "tax breaks" either, if it is afforded a strong, stable oil
price. In my view, $60-70 WTI won't kill the consumer.
But, I heard on Bloomberg radio yesterday that the Reddit investors are beginning to pour
into oil and grains. So, worried about volatility.
Only about 1/5-1/6 of voters in the very rural counties (25K or less in population) votes
for Biden. Yet his policies appear to be a boon for those populations.
Here's to $5+ corn, $14+ soybeans, $6+ wheat, $6+ milo and $65+ WTI! Keeping prices there
would really solidify a part of the US that is really struggling.
I suspect I might be the only person still posting here that lives in an oil and grain
producing region. There just aren't many of us left.
Labor will be our huge problem. Maybe strong and stable commodity prices could bring some
people back, or keep some of our young people here?
Thank goodness for the people from Mexico and Central America. Without them, rural USA would
be in really big trouble. SHALLOW SAND IGNORED
06/05/2021 at 10:48 am
Dennis.
I will add, if rural is in big trouble, I believe the entire USA is in big trouble.
I have never seen the labor shortages that I am seeing today in my community.
I know there are many efforts to radically change how our country's food supply is produced.
But, like energy transition, those will take decades.
It is not attractive to most to live in rural locations. Very, very difficult psychological
and emotional transition for those that try to move from urban/suburban to rural. I have seen
it first hand. We cannot keep doctors for that reason, for example. There are almost no
attorneys here under the age of 60. Management of our factories has mostly been moved, because
it can be due to technology, and because management doesn't want to live here.
Most in the factories here are being hired in at $16-19 per hour, and will be over $20 soon
after. Most work at least 10 hours of overtime a week.
But we have a very high percentage of young adults in the rural areas struggling with hard
drug dependency. Meth is the big one, and it is easier for a 20 year old to get meth than to
get a beer in most rural areas.
Our country needs to do so much better across the board on hard drug dependency. One of the
many reasons being to fill all of these job openings. Of course, there are more important ones
than that.
I bet if hard drug dependency was completely eliminated, over 90% of child abuse and neglect
court cases would also be wiped out. That is the most important reason we need to do
better.
WTI Punched a $70 ticket sometime after 6:00 PM EST, June 6, 2021. The last time this
happened was Oct 16, 2018, $71.92 before falling below $70 the next day.
"Igor Sechin, the head of Russian oil major Rosneft (ROSN.MM), said on Saturday the world
was facing an acute oil shortage in the long-term due to underinvestment amid a drive for
alternative energy, while demand for oil continued to rise."
Exxon Mobil Corp. is
pulling out of a deep-water oil prospect in Ghana just two years after the west African nation
ratified an
exploration and production agreement with the U.S. oil titan.
The company relinquished the entirety of its stake in the Deepwater Cape Three Points block
and resigned as its operator after fulfilling its contractual obligations during the initial
exploration period, according to a letter to Ghana's government seen by Bloomberg and people
familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the information isn't
public.
Energy giant BP Plc
sees a strong recovery in global crude demand and expects it to last for some time, with U.S.
shale production being kept in check, according to Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney.
"There is a lot of evidence that suggests that demand will be strong, and the
shale seems to be remaining disciplined," Looney told Bloomberg News in St. Petersburg,
Russia. "I think that the situation we're in at the moment could last like this for a
while."
Just in time for Pride Month, a new exchange traded fund aims to connect with LGBTQ investors. Two previous efforts failed to
attract enough assets.
The fund, LGBTQ + ESG100 ETF LGBT,
+0.91%
, launched in late May, is a passively managed, large-cap index fund that holds the top 100 U.S. companies that most align with
the LGBTQ community.
In 2019, two LGBTQ-focused ETFs were delisted: ALPS Workplace Equality Portfolio ETF and InsightShares LGBT Employment Equality
ETFs. Like this new fund, both were mostly U.S. large-cap, passive index ETFs comprising companies that received high or perfect
marks for workplace equality in the Human Rights Campaign Corporate Equality
Index , a benchmark for corporate LGBTQ policies.
The first ETF stuck around for five years, but the second barely made it two years, even though it was launched with much fanfare
by UBS. Neither gained many assets.
Bobby Blair, CEO and founder of LGBTQ Loyalty Holdings, which launched the fund with issuer ProcureAM, says community input on
holdings makes this fund different.
LGBTQ Loyalty Holdings partners with Harris Poll to annually survey 150,000 self-identifying LGBTQ constituents across the U.S.
for their views about a company's brand awareness, brand image, brand loyalty and how the firm supports the community. As noted in
its prospectus
, 25% of the index's weighting is derived from that survey data.
... the LGBTQ + ESG100 has an annual expense ratio of 0.75%.
As bubbles peak,
they combine objective signs of excess" prices rising much faster than earnings can justify"
with subjective signs of mania, such as frenzied trading and borrowing. To some the entire US
stock market looks bubbly given its dizzying run-up, but earnings growth has also been
extraordinarily strong through the pandemic. Beneath the surface, however, sectors of the
market from green tech to cryptocurrency show tell-tale bubble signs.
My research on the 10 biggest bubbles of the past century, from the US stock market in 1929
to Chinese shares in 2015, shows that prices typically rise 100 per cent in the year before the
peak, with much of the gain packed into the climactic last months. That finding is closely in
line with bubble studies from academics at Harvard and others.
By those standards, there are at least five current bubblets. They include the
cryptocurrency market for bitcoin and ethereum; clean energy stocks, including some of the
biggest names in electric vehicles; small cap stocks, including many of the hottest pandemic
stories; a basket of tech stocks that lack earnings, which is also chock-a-block with famous
brands; and special purpose acquisition
companies (Spacs) , which allow investors a new way to buy into private firms before they
go public.
Each of these bubblets is captured in an index that rose in the last year by around 100 per
cent, often much more, to a peak value between $500bn and $2.5tn. Day traders and other newbies
rushed in, a common symptom of late stage market manias. Now these bubbles are faltering, as
they so often do, in response to increases in long-term interest rates. What's next?
The historical bubbles in my study did suffer midcourse setbacks on the way up, but
typically those corrections were around 25 per cent and never more than 35 per cent. Beyond
that point" a 35 per cent drop" the bubbles in my sample became monophasic, or stuck on a
one-way downhill path.
For the median case, the bottom was found 70 per cent below the peak, and came just over two
years after the peak. Except for the index of small-cap pandemic stocks, the other four bubble
candidates have all experienced drops of at least 35 per cent, but also of no more than 50 per
cent (in the case of ethereum). In other words, they are not likely to resume inflating any
time soon, and they are still far from the typical bottom.
There is one new factor that could upset this historical pattern. Despite the rise in
long-term interest rates, there is plenty of liquidity sloshing around the markets, with
central banks committed to easy money as never before. The risks though are skewed to the
downside.
It is important to remember that a bubble is often a good idea gone too far. In the early
2000s, the conventional wisdom was that the dotcom bubble had fuelled mainly junk companies
with business plans barely worth the napkins they were written on. Later, researchers found
that, compared with other bubbles, those in the tech sector produce many start-ups that fail
but also help launch major innovations. For every few dozen dotcom flame-outs, there was a
giant survivor such as Google or Amazon that would go on to make the economy more
productive.
Softpanorama
REPLY JOHN S IGNORED 06/28/2021 at 1:21 pm
