A specter is haunting Washington, an unnerving vision of a Sino-Russian alliance
wedded to an expansive symbiosis of trade and commerce across much of the Eurasian land mass -
at the expense of the United States.
The USA proxy gas war with Russia is directly on limiting economic ties between EU and Russia and
uses Ukraine as cannon fodder. Today Ukraine is much like Spain in 1936. Split nation, civil war, the
arena of collision of interests of foreign powers (with old players known from Spain war -- the USA,
GB, Germany and Russia, but this time USA and GB are on German side of the conflict; Poland is playing
the role of Italy), betrayal of national elite, spies, foreign volunteers, mercenaries ... But there
is one important difference -- all this events are happening on the background of the US gas war with
Russia. The strategic goal in this war is to isolate Russia from EU, and first of all Germany.
BBC report is pretty biased (as it should be in government controlled MSM) but it provides some discussion
of key problems with the exception of one -- chronic, systemic inability of Ukraine to pay for Russia
gas due to low competitiveness of the industries which are major consumers or it. For that nakedcapitalism.com
article is a better source information. Here is the map of EU countries dependence of Russian supplies:
For Russia Ukraine is a huge chronic pain, the partner that they iether need to subsidize or to cut
the flow of gas. Ukraine is insolvent and can't pay market price for Russian gas. So it simply steals
it. This nightmare of subsiding Ukraine lasted since the independence.
“We cannot deliver gas for free, so they need to pay off the debt,” said Aleksey Miller,
Gazprom chief executive has said. The fact that junta came to power in Kiev in February, 2014 was the
last drop that broke the camel back.
Russia understands that junta enjoys full support of the US government and that further complicates
the situation, probably to the great delight of the USA energy companies brass:
Russia has threatened to cut gas supplies to Ukraine because of the dispute over prices. That
could also affect EU countries, as much Russian gas is delivered to the West through Ukraine.
We examine what's behind the row, and its potential impact on Europe and its gas supplies.
What is the row about?
The immediate dispute is about Ukraine's very large unpaid gas bill: $2.2bn (£1.2bn; 1.4bn
Euros), according to the Russian state-controlled utility Gazprom.
If Ukraine does not settle its bill, Gazprom will in effect install the world's largest pre-pay
meter, and Ukraine will be obliged to pay for its gas in advance. If it fails to pay, Gazprom says
it will restrict or suspend delivery.
But lurking behind this is the power struggle between the interim Ukrainian government, which
leans towards the EU, and Russia, which wants to keep Ukraine firmly within its sphere of influence.
In February, months of street protests culminated in the removal from power of Ukraine's pro-Russian
president, Viktor Yanukovich. He had decided not to sign an association agreement with the EU, opting
instead to join Russia's customs union.
But the interim government has reversed course. In return, the EU is providing development assistance,
a loan of 1.6bn Euros (£1.3bn; $2.2bn), the temporary removal of customs duties on Ukrainian exports
to the EU, and a programme to lessen Ukraine's energy dependence on Russia.
That has angered the Kremlin. Gazprom has raised the price Ukraine will have to pay for its gas
in future by 81%: up to $485.50 (£293; 354 Euros) from $268.50 for 1,000 cubic metres.
Previously, Ukraine's gas imports were subsidised in return for Russia's lease of the naval base
at Sevastopol in Crimea, the home of the Russian Black Sea fleet. But since Russia annexed Crimea
last month, that agreement is no longer valid.
Will anyone outside Ukraine be affected?
Quite possibly - the EU gets about a third of its gas from Russia, with some 50% of this flowing
through Ukraine.
Outside Ukraine, two other pipelines link Russia to the EU: the North Stream (under the Baltic)
and the Yamal, which flows through Belarus and Poland.
Germany and Italy are the two biggest customers for Russian gas. However, Germany is building
more coal-fired power plants and renewable energy installations, including offshore wind farms.
Countries most reliant on Russian gas flows via Ukraine (cubic
metres, billion)
Source: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
2013
2012
Italy
25.33
15.08
Turkey
13
14.02
Germany
11.71
21
Czech Republic
7.32
7.28
Hungary
6
5.29
Slovakia
5.42
4.19
Another pipeline, the South Stream, is under construction, running from Russia under the Black
Sea to Bulgaria and then splitting into two branches, north through Hungary to Austria, and south
to Italy.
The project website says the South Stream is scheduled to begin supplying gas late next year and
be completed in 2018-19.
However, the EU could decide to freeze construction as part of a further round of sanctions
on Russia.
Interconnectors between different pipelines could also help. South-eastern EU countries such as
Austria and the Czech Republic receive their supplies via Ukraine and are most at risk if Russia
turns off the taps. However, they could receive relief supplies via the interconnectors flowing down
from Germany.
Other countries, such as Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Finland, are looking to diversify their
energy supplies, for example by bringing in more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from non-European countries,
such as Qatar, or shale gas from North America.
One factor working in the favor of EU consumers is the weather: energy use falls in summer, reducing
dependence on imports.
Looks like Ukrainian events are used by the USA and its proxies and clients in Europe as a pretext
for launched a campaign directed on undermining Russia’s strategic economic position in energy exports
through a variety of means.
From derailing negotiations over pipeline construction to using puppet governments as a wedge between
Moscow and Europe, the US and its allies want to weaken Russia strategic position vis-à-vis gas
delivery infrastructure, while simultaneously strengthening their own.
Ukraine’s energy sector faces unprecedented challenges, from a heavy reliance on expensive fossil-fuel
imports to inefficient infrastructure and markets. Yet there is also potential for Ukraine to experience
an energy revolution, one that could boost employment, lift economic growth and enhance energy security.
Modernisation of Ukraine’s energy-supply sectors has only begun and will require investment on
a huge scale, complemented by a fundamental reform of the business environment.
A strong dependency on oil and gas imports and often-inefficient energy production, transportation
and supply sectors means that reducing energy demand must be a greater priority. The potential for
energy efficiency gains in the residential, district heating and industrial sectors is large. Endowed
with large conventional energy reserves, alongside sizeable renewable potential, Ukraine can build
the capacity to significantly increase its resource production.
Releasing this potential will require deep regulatory reform and full implementation of international
treaty provisions. Effective competition, alongside a progressive move towards market prices, will
also help Ukraine attract investment to develop the sector. A draft energy strategy, which sets out
a series of supply-side measures, was published in 2012. Broadening and implementing a comprehensive
energy strategy, one that takes greater account of demand-side policies, could significantly improve
progress in the medium term.
This review analyses the large energy-policy challenges facing Ukraine and provides recommendations
for further policy improvements. It is intended to help guide policy makers in the country towards
a more secure and sustainable energy future.
As EU blocked Putin's attempt to bypass Ukraine via Back Sea route to Bulgaria, Putin decided to
solve the problem via Turkey, despite the fact htat it more legthy path and turkey is not among Russia
friends and is a member of NATO.
This "Turkish Gambit" was a very dangerous play. This idea of "sacrificing" the "South stream" to
induce some sense of reality into EU and get some leverage is both very bold and very risky play. At
the end it failed. But it instantly demonstrated astonished EU brass that Russia can search and find
other markets for its gas. And no less profitable then German market. That raises for EU the spectre
of redirection of Russia energy flows away from Europe, the last thing the EU wants as alternatives
are more expensive and need additional infrastructure to be built. .
Southern European countries, especially Serbia and Bulgaria, which also were keen to blackmail Russian
over this project, but which were already counting rent from running the pipeline, now look like a bride
for which the groom left just before the wedding.
Of cause the perspective of subsidizing Ukraine which will steal gar from the pipeline in any case
is even worse then running pipeline via Turkey which is on its way of transformation from secular into
moderate Islamist state and as such is a threat to Russia (if this is a real plan; that is just the
first move; Putin might have in mind something else) but here dangers are also clearly visible. Among
them alienation of Greece and Armenia, as well as additional costs of running the pipeline for a longer
distance.
One think is clear -- EU bureaucrats and Angela Merkel did shoot itself in the foot.
The greatest winner in this Turkish gambit play is the USA. For them this is a real and huge diplomatic
victory. and it opens the path of supplying US LNG to Europe, if (big if) they can pay the price. While
this is called energy diversification by US politicians in reality this is a power play to capture new
markets.
Turkey politicians were not too exited with this perspective. They viewed it as mainly a good possibility
to extract huge concession from Russia as for price of the gas sold to turkey. Here is Turkish
view on the problem from
Batı’ya karşı Rusya kozunu kullanmak (Dec 4, 2014):
The visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Turkey caused serious debate not only about energy,
but also about policy in energy shere.
The issues on which the parties have significant differences of opinion (especially Syria and
Ukraine), were not mentioned at all during the visit. Instead, priority in these discussions (and,
in my opinion, somewhat exaggerated form) was given to Russia's decision to cancel the project pipeline
in Europe and lay it in Turkey.
As in the case of accidents in coal mines, one can observe that the Minister of Energy and Natural
Resources Taner Yildiz (Taner Yıldız) demonstrates good communication skills. One of the first order,
award-active discussion, it was Putin's statement about a 6% discount on natural gas, which Moscow
supplies to Turkey. According to unofficial sources, the ministry has requested to reduce the price
by 15%, while in the energy department requested the exact figure is not announced prices. Therefore,
it is likely that once the discount exceeds 6%, to be made a statement saying that "this is the desired
amount." But other countries Russia really sells gas is cheaper, so reducing the price of gas supplied
to Turkey, was widely anticipated move.
The main surprise, in my view, was the statement of Vladimir Putin's rejection of the project
"South Stream" and a willingness to build a pipeline to Turkey. In our country, the news is presented
as a success for Turkey, however much it would be better to consider it as part of the game Putin
against the West. In other words, we use Russia, and Russia uses us in your game.
This new project Russia is quite complicated to implement. First of all, we should recognize
that in this form it is not profitable for either Turkey or Russia. Russia is seeking to sell
gas directly to Europe. Over the past few years Russia invested large sums in Europe, wanting to
fully capture the western energy market. But Russia is unlikely to increase their bets in this market
through Turkey, despite the position of the EU and the failure of Bulgaria. Moreover, if Turkey by
giving permission for the use of its territory and will only receive payment for transit, then it's
better not to build this pipeline at all. But if Turkey will buy gas from Russia, mix it with the
gas purchased in other countries, and sell it to yourself to Europe, then the project will be really
beneficial for Turkey. But in this case, the question arises: "Why Russia to invest that amount of
money if it will not be aboee to determine the price of the resold gas "
So, Russia is choking under pressure from the West, trying to find some way out. Initiating a
similar project, Russia is trying to use it as a bargaining chip against Europe. However, anyone
who has jurisdiction in this matter, understand that to realize these plans will not be easy.
It is in the interests of Turkey to pursue the gas deal from Northern Iraq.
A further increase Turkey's dependence on Russia - is, from all points of view, the risk. It is
important to remember that for the last two years, Turkey has been successful in politics in Northern
Iraq. Drawing their attention to the region and getting a direct license to extract gas Ankara actually
can get a profitable business. Furthermore, Turkey does not need to turn away from this path in the
future, for example, to conclude an agreement with the Northern Iraq like those that have been signed
with Iran. Turkey should get gas from Southern Mediterranean thanks to the center created in Ceyhan.
In this case Turkey, on the one hand, acquire a strategic force, on the other - guarantee the security
of supplies and price advantages.
If we decide to go this path, it becomes obvious that buying the old volumes of gas in Russia
in not rational. Of course, Russia is great player in energy sphere, but there are too many unknowns
in this game. If Turkey agrees to this game, knowing that it is contrary to its interests, it can
be explained only one reason - the desire to set the tone in the resistance to the West because of
the growing contradictions with it.
Obviously, due to pressure from the West, Russia is left without countervailing forces on which
it rely in pursuing its policy. And this sense Turkey rude "demonstration of power ansd independence"
is just playing into another dangerous game.
A pipe bearing the Nord Stream 2 logo at a plant in Chelyabinsk, Russia, Feb. 26, 2020. PHOTO: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERS Listen to this article 5 minutes 00:00 / 05:07 1x Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma found himself in the company of a political titan, France's President François Mitterrand, on a gloomy day in December 1994. "Young man, you will be tricked, one way or another," Mitterrand told Mr. Kuchma, who was then the leader of a newly independent nation. Unsettled as he felt, Mr. Kuchma accepted the security assurances of the U.S., U.K. and Russia and signed the Budapest Memorandum. In exchange, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, then the third-largest in the world. Little did we know that two decades later one of the signatories -- Russia -- would attack Ukraine and occupy its sovereign territory. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma found himself in the company of a political titan, France's President François Mitterrand, on a gloomy day in December 1994. "Young man, you will be tricked, one way or another," Mitterrand told Mr. Kuchma, who was then the leader of a newly independent nation. Unsettled as he felt, Mr. Kuchma accepted the security assurances of the U.S., U.K. and Russia and signed the Budapest Memorandum. In exchange, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, then the third-largest in the world. Little did we know that two decades later one of the signatories -- Russia -- would attack Ukraine and occupy its sovereign territory. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. With the Nord Stream 1 and Turk Stream pipelines already operational, Nord Stream 2 will complete the encirclement of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states, decoupling our energy security from Western Europe. Russia has tried to bully Ukraine by threatening gas cutoffs, most recently in June 2014. But Moscow has always had to be careful -- a large percentage of Russia's gas reaches Europe through Ukraine. If Nord Stream 2 is built, this consideration will be null and void. With the Nord Stream 1 and Turk Stream pipelines already operational, Nord Stream 2 will complete the encirclement of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states, decoupling our energy security from Western Europe. Russia has tried to bully Ukraine by threatening gas cutoffs, most recently in June 2014. But Moscow has always had to be careful -- a large percentage of Russia's gas reaches Europe through Ukraine. If Nord Stream 2 is built, this consideration will be null and void. me title= NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP ( Apr 11, 2021 , www.wsj.com )
Don't worry, US gov't...you can always sell your LNG to Poland...hahahah!
LA_Goldbug 11 hours ago
I wonder what the price is for this LNG from all the way across the Atlantic.
rosalinda 10 hours ago
I read it is triple the price of the Russian gas. The Russians have all the advantages
here. Putin probably would not weaponize the gas, but who is to say some Russian leader in
the future might not take the opportunity? Europe is more dependant on Russian gas then
Russia is dependant on European money
XJ033858JH 10 hours ago
It's more like 3.3 times...10% for the big guy
BannedCamp 8 hours ago
Likewise, Russia could nuke the whole world, but they never used a nuke on any country
before, but the US has. Saying that Russia might do something that the accusing party (The
U.S) is actually doing right now (to Germany) is blatant hypocrisy.
After much arm-twisting, bullying and foghorn diplomacy towards its European allies, the
United States appears to have finally given up on trying to block the giant Nord Stream 2
project with Russia. What an epic saga it has been, revealing much about American relations
with Europe and Washington's geopolitical objectives, as well as, ultimately, the historic
decline in U.S. global power.
In the end, sanity and natural justice seem to have prevailed. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline
under the Baltic Sea will double the existing flow of Russia's prodigious natural gas to
Germany and the rest of Europe. The fuel is economical and environmentally clean compared with
coal, oil and the shale gas that the Americans were vying with Russia to export.
Russia's vast energy resources will ensure Europe's economies and households are reliably
and efficiently fueled for the future. Germany, the economic engine of the European Union, has
a particular vital interest in securing the Nord Stream 2 project which augments an existing
Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Both follow the same Baltic Sea route of approximately 1,222 kilometers
– the longest pipeline in the world – taking Russian natural gas from its arctic
region to the northern shores of Germany. For Germany's export-led economy, Russian fuel is
essential for future growth, and hence benefiting the rest of Europe.
It was always a natural fit between Russia and the European Union. Geographically and
economically, the two parties are compatible traders and Nord Stream 2 is merely the
culmination of decades of efficient energy relations.
Enter the Americans. Washington has been seething over the strategic energy trade between
Russia and Europe. The opposition escalated under the Trump administration (so much for Trump
being an alleged Russian stooge!) when his ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, fired off
threatening letters to German and other European companies arrogantly warning that they would
be hit with sanctions if they dared proceed with Nord Stream 2. Pipe-laying work was indeed
interrupted last year by U.S. sanctions. (So much for European sovereignty and alleged meddling
in internal affairs by Russia!)
The ostensible American rationale was always absurd. Washington claimed that Russia would
exploit its strategic role as gas supplier by extracting malicious concessions from Europe. It
was also claimed that Russia would "weaponize" energy trade to enable alleged aggression
towards Ukraine and other Eastern European states. The rationale reflects the twisted
Machiavellian mentality of the Americans and their supporters in Europe – Poland and the
Baltic states, as well as the Kiev regime in Ukraine. Such mentality is shot-through with
irrational Russophobia.
The ridiculous paranoid claims against Russia are of course an inversion of reality. It is
the Americans and their European surrogates who are weaponizing a mundane matter of commercial
trade that in reality offers a win-win relationship. Part of the real objective is to distort
market economics by demonizing Russia in order for the United States to export their own vastly
more expensive and environmentally dirty liquefied natural gas to Europe. (So much for American
free-market capitalism!)
Another vital objective for Washington is to thwart any normal relations developing between
Russia and the rest of Europe. American hegemony and its hyper-militaristic economy depend on
dividing and ruling other nations as so-called "allies" and "adversaries". This has been a
long-time necessity ever since the Second World War and during the subsequent Cold War decades,
the latter constantly revived by Washington against Russia. (So much for American claims that
Russia is a "revisionist power"!)
However, there is a fundamental objective problem for the Americans. The empirical decline
of U.S. global power means that Washington can no longer bully other nations in the way it has
been accustomed to doing for decades. The old Cold War caricatures of demonizing others have
lost their allure and potency because the objective world we live in today simply does not make
them plausible or credible. The Russian gas trade with the European Union is a consummate case
in point. In short, Germany and the EU are not going to shoot themselves in the foot,
economically speaking, simply on the orders of Uncle Sam.
President Joe Biden had enough common sense – unlike the egotistical Trump – to
realize that American opposition to Nord Stream 2 was futile. Biden is more in tune with the
Washington establishment than his maverick predecessor. Hence Biden began waiving sanctions
imposed under Trump. Finally this week, the White House announced that it had come to an
agreement with Germany to permit Nord Stream 2 to go ahead. The Financial Times called it a
"truce" while the Wall Street Journal referred to a "deal" between Washington and Berlin.
(Ironically, American non-interference is presented as a "deal"!)
The implication is that the United States was magnanimously giving a "concession" to Europe.
The reality is the Americans were tacitly admitting they can't stop the strategic convergence
between Russia and the rest of Europe on a vital matter of energy supply.
In spinning the eventuality, Washington has continued to accuse Russia of "weaponizing"
trade. It warns that if Russia is perceived to be abusing relations with Ukraine and Europe
then the United States will slap more sanctions on Moscow. This amounts to the defeated bully
hyperventilating.
Another geopolitical factor is China. The Biden administration has prioritized confrontation
with China as the main long-term concern for repairing U.S. decline. Again, Biden is more in
tune with the imperial planners in Washington than Trump was. They know that in order for the
United States to have a chance of undermining China as a geopolitical rival the Europeans must
be aligned with U.S. policy. Trump's boorish browbeating of Europeans and Germany in particular
over NATO budgets and other petty issues resulted in an unprecedented rift in the
"transatlantic alliance" – the euphemism for American dominance over Europe. By appearing
to concede to Germany over Nord Stream 2, Washington is really aiming to shore up its
anti-China policy. This too is an admission of defeat whereby American power is unable to
confront China alone. The bully needs European lackeys to align, and so is obliged to offer a
"deal" over Russia's energy trade.
All in all, Washington's virtue-signaling is one helluva gas!
21 play_arrow 2
Peter Pan 12 hours ago
What the USA accuses Russia of planning to do down the track is actually what the USA is
doing now. In other words it is the USA that is weaponusing the gas issue with threats and
sanctions.
_ConanTheLibertarian_ 12 hours ago remove link
The US had no business interfering. Bye.
buzzsaw99 12 hours ago
the usa should ask russia to teach them how to keep natural gas flowing when it gets
cold outside. lol
RedSeaPedestrian 11 hours ago
How to keep a windmill spinning comes first.
two hoots 11 hours ago
Well we did interfere and the results exposed our decline in multifarious ways, mainly
power in all things that matter in the international arena: diplomacy, defense, economic,
trust. We yet have great influence with our scientific and industrial capabilities but even
there others are reaching parity. Internally our unsupportable debt will hinder even that.
Basically it is the US Government (domestic/foreign affairs) that has led the charge of our
decline. "Government is dead" .... (we need a new and improved one to worship)
Max21c 11 hours ago
The Washingtonians & Londoners are just upset because now their buddies and puppets
in the Ukraine aren't going to be able to use control over the transit of Russian gas
through the Ukraine to hold Europe hostage and get their way. So everything that they're
accusing the Russians of doing in the future is what Washingtonians, Londoners, and the
Ukraine were doing in the past. They're just upset since their Ukrainian vassals can no
longer do their bidding's against Moscow and Eastern Europe.
MR166 9 hours ago
I am a USA loving conservative but I really never understood the objections to the
pipeline. Since energy = standard of living the pipeline does nothing but help mankind. The
US has no problem becoming totally dependent on China for drugs, medical supplies, chips
and manufacturing but is afraid of Russia shipping gas to Europe. How does that make any
sense at all???!!!
ar8 9 hours ago (Edited) remove link
I will explain it for you:
US companies wanted to sell their gas to Europe.
The US companies attempted to use the US to bully European countries, companies,
projects and people through sanctions and threatening fines.
It worked, a bit: numerous companies ceased working on it.
But the US, as usual, with its bullyboy tactics had been less effective and created more
self-damage than it expected. It has created many enemies as a result, which will hasten
the demise of the US government.
Despite its age, the following is still relevant to Nord Stream II: "War Is a Racket" is
a speech and a 1935 short book, by Smedley D. Butler, a retired United States Marine Corps
Major General and two-time Medal of Honor recipient.
Rudolph 2 hours ago
One more reason. We control Ukraine, Ukraine control gas to Germany. = We control
Germany.
Vivekwhu 9 hours ago
What is the point of having a financial/military/market empire if you don't have a
finger in every pie enriching your elite?
Chief Joesph 11 hours ago
It was simply a war of hate about anything Russian. The U.S. really had nothing to offer
Germany anyway. From the German perspective, they had to protect their own interests, and
since Russia was offering to sell them natural gas and the U.S. wasn't, the choice was
rather simple. Perhaps it might make better relationships between eastern block countries
and the west too.
The U.S. spends a great amount of time and resources "hating" other countries for no
reason at all. It's bigotry by any other definition. The U.S. practices a systematic and
especially politically exploited expression of hatred and hostilities. Not only do they
practice this against other countries, but among their own kind too. The U.S. ranks as one
of the more hateful countries in the world, only surpassed by the Middle East. Add that to
the reasons why Germany doesn't want to go along with U.S. temper tantrums.
LA_Goldbug 10 hours ago
Not "hating" but "bombing" is the right description of the US foreign policy
practice.
porco rosso 11 hours ago
Mr Putin is way too clever for these yankster clowns and makes them look like the fools
they are time and time again. That is why they hate him so much.
Max21c 11 hours ago remove link
Putin didn't have to outsmart them. The Europeans need the gas. Water does not usually
flow uphill.
porco rosso 11 hours ago
True. But in Germany there are a lot of treacherous transatlantic elements that wanted
to sabotage the pipeline at any cost.
These elements are Germans but they dont give a **** about Germany. Treacherous
scumbags.
wootendw PREMIUM 11 hours ago (Edited)
" The ostensible American rationale was always absurd. Washington claimed that Russia
would exploit its strategic role as gas supplier by extracting malicious concessions from
Europe. It was also claimed that Russia would "weaponize" energy trade to enable alleged
aggression towards Ukraine and other Eastern European states. "
The absurdity lies with the existence of NATO or the US being in NATO. It no more makes
sense for US to commit ourselves to Europe's defense against Russia than it does for Europe
to buy American NG for three times the price it can get Russia's for.
williambanzai7 PREMIUM 10 hours ago (Edited)
Well apparently some tard thinks it makes perfect sense for other readily imagined
strategic reasons none of which have anything to do with accountable governance.
Someone thinks NATO is a dog leash. An expensive dog leash.
yerfej 11 hours ago
The washington idiot cabal needs something to focus on to justify their existence so
they wander the globe telling everyone how to live and who they can trade with when they're
not busy starting or expanding wars. The reality is the US federal government is a
completely useless parasite who's ONLY function is to domestically terrorize its own
citizens and the other nations of the world.
known unknown 10 hours ago remove link
Nordstream II was built to a stop Ukraine from blocking gas to Europe which they already
did once, stealing gas which they have always done. Germany asked Russia to build it. The
dummy Bulgarians stopped a similar pipeline yielding to the US. Then they cried about it
when they realized they lost billions. No matter what's promised Ukraine will be cut out in
5 years if they continue hostilities towards Russians.
LA_Goldbug 10 hours ago (Edited) remove link
Most people conveniently forget or don't know about Ukraine's siphoning of the gas while
in transit to European countries.
Germany is as bad as the US. Thanks to Germany Yugoslavia was decapitated with help from
US and UK.
Greed is King 11 hours ago
Nordstream 2 is a trade deal between the EU (primarily Germany) and Russia.
Russia sells gas to the EU; and the EU buys gas from Russia.
2. Who the feck does America think it is that it thinks it can interfere with and make
demands of free and sovereign nations ?.
When the bully is beaten, nobody ever feels sympathy for him; America would do well to
think about that.
Samual Vimes 11 hours ago (Edited) remove link
Surroguts /proxies, what ever.
Unelected policy makers in all their purple clad glory.
Max21c 12 hours ago (Edited)
After much arm-twisting, bullying and foghorn diplomacy towards its European allies,
the United States appears to have finally given up on trying to block the giant Nord
Stream 2 project with Russia. What an epic saga it has been, revealing much about
American relations with Europe and Washington's geopolitical objectives, as well as,
ultimately, the historic decline in U.S. global power.
It may show a decline in US global power or it may just show a rise in Washingtonian
amateurishness, arrogance, obnoxiousness, naivete and stupidity...
all it does is show out in the open that certain people are quacks, flakes, and
screwballs. Why would anyone in their right mind waste time & efforts or political
capital or diplomatic capital/bonnafides on trying to do something so silly as block Nord
Stream 2... It just makes Washingtonians look ridiculous, silly, and absurd...
It's almost as crazy as making a horse into a Roman Senator or declaring a war on the
Neptune or attacking the sea... It appears as if right after the Berlin Wall came down
American elites and Washingtonians all joined the Mad King Ludwig cult and became
worshipers of everything crazy...
RedSeaPedestrian 11 hours ago remove link
Or even as crazy as making a Dementia patient a Roman Emperor. (Or is that a United
States President? I forget sometimes.)
hugin-o-munin 12 hours ago remove link
Whatever political games are being played there is no getting around the fact that
Europe and Russia will eventually start to get along and expand trade and industrial
cooperation. Most people know that both the US and UK want to prevent this because it will
diminish their current top dog positions wrt global trade and financial control. Few things
compare to trade and mutual beneficial cooperation when it comes to lowering the risk for
conflict.
Just like Europe should promote development and trade with northern Africa so should the
US with central and southern America. This would also put an end to the endless migrant
caravans that are putting a huge strain on both the EU and US today. It's actually a non
brainer and says more about these satanic globalists' true motive than anything else.
ReichstagFireDept. 9 hours ago remove link
Nord Stream 2 is your best indicator that Governments are realizing that Renewable
Energy is NOT the replacement for Conventional Energy.
Nat. Gas IS the clean Energy source that everyone was screaming for...now it's finally
worldwide and they don't want it?!
Sorry, your Green Marxist dream is ending.
geno-econ 9 hours ago remove link
U.S. should be grateful Russia is sharing its natural resources with West rather than
aligning with China. There is much more than natural gas---ferro manganese, ferro chrome,
uranium, enrichment, titanium, aluminum, fertilizer, wheat, timber products, etc. U.S.
trade with China essentially imports only two major resources---cheap labor and synthetic
opioids !
williambanzai7 PREMIUM 9 hours ago
Well, there's some plastic junk and red refugees in there as well.
geno-econ 9 hours ago
only wealthy red capitalists disguised as refugees from China
ar8 9 hours ago
You are assuming the US government thinks rationally.
The Kremlin said on Thursday it disagreed with some statements in an agreement between the
United States and Germany on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, insisting that Russia had never
used energy as a tool of political pressure.
The pact aims to mitigate what critics see as the strategic dangers of the $11 billion Nord
Stream 2 pipeline, now 98% complete, being built under the Baltic Sea to carry gas from
Russia's Arctic region to Germany.
"Russia has always been and remains a responsible guarantor of energy security on the
European continent, or I would even say on a wider, global scale," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry
Peskov told reporters.
Arby's Just Quietly Discontinued These 6 Menu Items See Dolly Parton Recreate Her Iconic
"Playboy" Cover 43 Years Later
WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - Germany has committed to take action on its own and back
action at the European Union level should Russia seek to use energy as a weapon or take
aggressive action against Ukraine, U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland said on
Wednesday.
"Should Russia attempt to use energy as a weapon or commit further aggressive actions
against Ukraine, Germany will take actions at the national level and press for effective
measures at the European level, including sanctions, to limit Russian export capabilities in
the energy sector," Nuland told lawmakers, adding that Germany would support an extension of
the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement that expires in 2024. (Reporting By Arshad Mohammed and
Jonathan Landay)
"... Two world wars were fought to keep Germany down. The stated purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down. ..."
"... IMO US didn't cause NS2 friction because it thinks it benefits Russia, but exactly because it benefits Germany too much. ..."
"... You know, NATO, "Keep the Germans down..." and all that. US must not permit it's vassals to become too economically stronger than their master. They want to drag everyone they can down with them (and in shitter US goes) so they can still be king of the hill (or ad least shitter bottom). ..."
"... The most important point to know is that US hegemony in Europe is predicated on fear and hostility between Germany and Russia. ..."
"... There are many limitations to European strategic autonomy -- and the EU embodies those limits in many ways -- but the case of NS2 demonstrates an independent streak in German strategy. It amounts to a zero sum loss for Washington. ..."
"... Lebanon does illustrate the incredible reach of the Empire. A leverage so long that every door leads to self immolation. Your mention of the current spyware scandal is right on point. These are instruments of absolute power. ..."
"... While Trump is certainly no representative of humanity, it just as certainly doesn't look like his rise was in the playbook of the dominant faction of the oligarchy. Trump really seems to fit the mould of a Bonapartist, though recast in the context of contemporary America. This would indicate that the imperial oligarchy is in crisis, which itself could lead to fractures in the empire, and among the empire's vassals in particular. ..."
The sanctions war the U.S. waged against Germany and Russia over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline
has ended with a total U.S. defeat.
The U.S. attempts to block the pipeline were part of the massive anti-Russia campaign waged
over the last five years. But it was always based on a misunderstanding. The pipeline is not to
Russia's advantage but important for Germany. As I described Nord Stream 2 in a
previous piece :
It is not Russia which needs the pipeline. It can
sell its gas to China for just as much as it makes by selling gas to Europe.
...
It is Germany, the EU's economic powerhouse, that needs the pipeline and the gas flowing
through it. Thanks to Chancellor Merkel's misguided energy policy - she put an end to nuclear
power in German after a tsunami in Japan destroyed three badly placed reactors - Germany
urgently needs the gas to keep its already high electricity prices from rising further.
That the new pipeline will bypass old ones which run through the Ukraine is likewise to
the benefit of Germany, not Russia. The pipeline infrastructure in the Ukraine is old and
near to disrepair. The Ukraine has no money to renew it. Politically it is under U.S.
influence. It could use its control over the energy flow to the EU for blackmail. (It already
tried
once.) The new pipeline, laid at the bottom of the Baltic sea, requires no payment for
crossing Ukrainian land and is safe from potential malign influence.
Maybe Chancellor Merkel on her recent visit to Washington DC finally managed to explain that
to the Biden administration. More likely though she simply told the U.S. to f*** off. Whatever
- the result is in. As the Wall Street Journal
reports today:
The U.S. and Germany have reached an agreement allowing completion of the Nord Stream 2
natural gas pipeline, officials from both countries say.
Under the four-point agreement, Germany and the U.S. would invest $50 million in Ukrainian
green-tech infrastructure, encompassing renewable energy and related industries. Germany also
would support energy talks in the Three Seas Initiative, a Central European diplomatic
forum.
Berlin and Washington as well would try to ensure that Ukraine continues to receive
roughly $3 billion in annual transit fees that Russia pays under its current agreement with
Kyiv, which runs through 2024. Officials didn't explain how to ensure that Russia continues
to make the payments.
The U.S. also would retain the prerogative of levying future pipeline sanctions in the
case of actions deemed to represent Russian energy coercion, officials in Washington
said.
So Germany will spend some chump change to buy up, together with the U.S, a few Ukrainian
companies that are involved in solar or wind mill stuff. It will 'support' some irrelevant
talks by maybe paying for the coffee. It also promises to try something that it has no way to
succeed in.
That's all just a fig leave. The U.S. really gave up without receiving anything for itself
or for its client regime in the Ukraine.
The Ukraine lobby in Congress will be very unhappy with that deal. The Biden administration
hopes to avoid an uproar over it. Yesterday Politico reported that the Biden
administration preemptively had told the Ukraine
to stop talking about the issue :
In the midst of tense negotiations with Berlin over a controversial Russia-to-Germany
pipeline, the Biden administration is asking a friendly country to stay quiet about its
vociferous opposition. And Ukraine is not happy.
U.S. officials have signaled that they've given up on stopping the project, known as the
Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and are now scrambling to contain the damage by striking a grand
bargain with Germany.
At the same time, administration officials have quietly urged their Ukrainian counterparts
to withhold criticism of a forthcoming agreement with Germany involving the pipeline,
according to four people with knowledge of the conversations.
The U.S. officials have indicated that going public with opposition to the forthcoming
agreement could damage the Washington-Kyiv bilateral relationship , those sources said. The
officials have also urged the Ukrainians not to discuss the U.S. and Germany's potential
plans with Congress.
If Trump had done the above Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi would have called for another
impeachment.
The Ukrainian President Zelensky is furious over the deal and about being told to shut up.
But there is little he can do but to accept the booby price the Biden administration offered
him:
U.S. officials' pressure on Ukrainian officials to withhold criticism of whatever final deal
the Americans and the Germans reach will face significant resistance.
A source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv's position is that
U.S. sanctions could still stop completion of the project, if only the Biden administration
had the will to use them at the construction and certification stages. That person said Kyiv
remains staunchly opposed to the project.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration gave Zelensky a date for a meeting at the White House
with the president later this summer , according to a senior administration official.
Nord Stream 2 is to 96% ready. Its testing will start in August or September and by the
years end it will hopefully deliver gas to western Europe.
Talks about building Nord Stream 3 are likely to start soon.
Posted by b on July 21, 2021 at 17:13 UTC | Permalink
Did Merkel also get Biden to promise that neither he nor any of his clients (AQ, ISIS, etc.
etc. etc.) would perpetrate any "unfortunate incidents" or "disruptions" on NS 2?
And would any such promises be worth the breath that uttered them?
But it was always based on a misunderstanding. The pipeline is not to Russia's advantage
but important for Germany
I'm afraid it is you who doesn't understand. Two world wars were fought to keep Germany down. The stated purpose of NATO is to keep the
Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down.
They weren't trying to block NS2 to keep Russia out but to keep Germany down,
I beg to differ. IMO US didn't cause NS2 friction because it thinks it benefits Russia, but
exactly because it benefits Germany too much.
You know, NATO, "Keep the Germans down..." and all that. US must not permit it's vassals
to become too economically stronger than their master. They want to drag everyone they can
down with them (and in shitter US goes) so they can still be king of the hill (or ad least
shitter bottom).
That is why there is also pressure for all western countries to adopt insane immigration,
LGBT, austerity policies and what not. What a better way to destroy all these countries, both
economically and culturally, or adleast make them far more worse than US, it is only way US
can again become "powerhouse", like after WW2.
Does this represent a fracturing of the EU? or maybe a change in direction?
What b is pointing out about how if it were Trump....only means that the bullying approach
by empire didn't work and now we are seeing face saving bullying and backpedaling like crazy
in some areas.
I roll my eyes at this ongoing belief that Trump represented humanity instead of all or
some faction of the elite....as a demigod it seems.
the "facts" as you state them are not quite right.
1. China is ruthless. They waited until the last possible second to sign a deal with Iran,
thus ensuring they are getting the best possible price for Iran's oil, basically robbing Iran
blind. The poor Iran didn't have a choice but to agree. Even today, Putin will NOT say how
much China is paying for gas on Siberia pipeline and a lot of people think China is robbing
Russia blind on the deal. A second Siberia line without a NS2 will put Russia is very bad
negotiation position and China in very good one, giving them the advantage to ask for any
price of Russia and get it.
2. Merkel is leaving anyway in September and thw Green party that will be taking over HATES
RUssia with passion. The NS2 is far from done deal, it needs to be insured. Plus it will fall
under the EU 3rd energy package making sure Germany doesn't use it 100% . The NS2 will never
be 100 usable, the Green party will see to that. AT best it will be only 50% usage.
And so on and so on.
Funny how in today's world, we all have different facts. My facts are different than YOUR
facts. My facts are just as relevant as your facts.
What is more, the most dangerous potential alliance, from the perspective of the United
States, was considered to be an alliance between Russia and Germany. This would be an
alliance of German technology and capital with Russian natural and human resources.
The article explains a lot, more than just Germany or Russia.
They weren't trying to block NS2 to keep Russia out but to keep Germany down...
Germany would be 'down' no matter how much financial power it accumulates - i.e regardless
of NS2. The imperial garrison at Rammstein AFB will make sure of that. What the Americans fear is the symbolic meaning of NS2 in terms of geopolitical influence
for Russia. The loss of maneuverability against Russia that results from a key vassal not
being able to move in complete obedience to Uncle Sam's wishes.
The pipeline construction battle has been won, not the energy flow war.
The Financial Empire is most likely resorting to some CHARADE to find an excuse to later
stop the gas flow through Nord Stream 2. Empire's bullying was clearly exposed through
sanctions and it LOST the battle of stopping the pipeline construction. So it moves to the
next battle to find an excuse to stop the gas flow. Empire's evil intent is visible in these
words, "the U.S. also would retain the prerogative of levying future pipeline sanctions in
the case of actions deemed to represent Russian energy coercion, officials in Washington
said."
The Financial Empire has worked hard over the last century to prevent Germany from allying
herself with Russia. It wants to control energy flowing in Eurasia and its pricing. The war
will be only won when the Financial Empire is defeated and its global pillars of power
DISMANTLED.
"The 'heartland' was an area centered in Eurasia, which would be so situated and catered
to by resources and manpower as to render it an unconquerable fortress and a fearsome power;
and the 'crescent' was a virtual semi-arc encompassing an array of islands – America,
Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Japan – which, as 'Sea Powers,' watched over the
Eurasian landmass to detect and eventually thwart any tendency towards a consolidation of
power on the heartland."
Has the Financial Empire stopped interfering in other regions?
"US, Germany Threaten Retaliatory Action Against Russia in Draft Nord Stream 2 Accord -
Report...."
"As the US and Germany have reportedly reached a deal on the Nord Stream 2 project,
Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing the obtained draft text of the agreement, that it
would threaten sanctions and other measures if Russia tried to use energy as a 'weapon'
against Ukraine , though it did not specify what actions could provoke the
countermeasures.
"According to the report, in such a case, Germany will take unspecified national
action , a decision that may represent a concession from Chancellor Angela Merkel, who
had previously refused to take independent action against Moscow over the gas pipeline that
will run from Russia to Germany." [My Emphasis]
The article continues:
"On Tuesday, Ned Price, a spokesman for the US State Department, told reporters that he
did not have final details of an agreement to announce, but that 'the Germans have put
forward useful proposals, and we have been able to make progress on steps to achieve that
shared goal, that shared goal being to ensure that Russia cannot weaponize energy
."
" The US was hoping for explicit language that would commit Germany to shut down gas
delivery through Nord Stream 2 if Russia attempted to exert undue influence on Ukraine .
Germany, on the other hand, has long rejected such a move, stating that such a threat would
only serve to politicize a project that Merkel stresses is solely commercial in nature." [My
Emphasis]
The overall motive appears to be this:
"The accord would also commit Germany to use its influence to prolong Ukraine's gas
transit arrangement with Russia beyond 2024, possibly for up to ten years . Those talks
would begin no later than September 1, according to the news outlet." [My Emphasis]
So, here we have the Outlaw US Empire meddling in the internal affairs of three
nations--Germany, Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine cannot afford Russian gas as it has no rubles
to pay for it. Thus if Ukraine has no money to buy, then why should Gazprom be obliged to
give it away freely? What about other European customers who rely on gas piped through
Ukraine; are they going to see what they pay for get stolen by Ukraine? And what happens when
the pipelines breakdown from lack of maintenance since Ukraine's broke thanks to the Outlaw
Us Empire's coup that razed its economy? Shouldn't the Empire and its NATO vassals who
invaded Ukraine via their coup be forced to pay for such maintenance? And just who
"weaponized" this entire situation in the first place?
From my understanding, NS 2 was mutually beneficial for Germany and Russia.
As noted, Germany desperately needs energy and relying on the outrageously priced and
unreliable US LNG was not a viable option.
Russia benefits also.
1.No more high transit fees Russia pays Ukraine. I imagine some of that was finding its way
into US pockets after 2014.
2.Ukraine supposedly helped itself to plenty of stolen gas from the pipeline. That will
stop.
3.Ukraine was occasionally shutting down the pipeline for political reasons until Russia paid
the ransom. Not anymore.
So, Russia and Germany were both highly motivated to finish the pipeline ASAP.
Germany would be 'down' no matter how much financial power it accumulates - i.e regardless
of NS2.
The imperial garrison at Rammstein AFB will make sure of that.
Putin not too long ago (can't find the article now) said he was prepared to help Europe
gain its independence should they wish to do so, Rammstein or no Rammstein.
What the Americans fear is the symbolic meaning of NS2 in terms of geopolitical influence
for Russia. The loss of maneuverability against Russia that results from a key vassal not
being able to move in complete obedience to Uncle Sam's wishes.
What they fear should this deal go ahead is a Germany/Russia/China Axis that would control
the world island and thus the world.
I was convinced that the US of Assholery had lost its infantile anti-NS2 'battle' in
September 2020, after watching an episode of DW Conflict Zone in which Sarah Kelly
interviewed Niels Annen, Germany's Deputy FM. Annen came to the interview armed to the teeth
with embarrassing facts about US hypocrisy including, but not limited to, the fact that USA,
itself, buys vast quantities of petroleum products from Russia each year.
The interview is Google-able and, apart from pure entertainment value, Sarah is much
easier on the eye than Tim Sebastian...
1. China is ruthless. They waited until the last possible second to sign a deal with Iran, thus ensuring they are
getting the best possible price for Iran's oil, basically robbing Iran blind.
Hmmm... I seem to remember Iran shafting China on the south Pars gas field when it looked like the JCPOA was looking
likely...
If this memory of mine was correct (it may not be) then you really can't blame China for a little commercial payback.
In any case it was shown as soon as JCPOA Mk.1 was passed Iran RAN, not walked, to smooch up to the west for business, not
China, not Russia. So if its just business for Iran then its just business for China.
In our eagerness to expose the empire's shortcomings in a quick 'gotcha!' moment we
shouldn't rush head first into false premises. To suggest Dear Uncle Sam is concerned with
anything other than his own navel is naive. He's the man with the plan. He knows that down
the road, Oceania's eastern border won't run along the Dnieper but right off the shore of
Airstrip One.
As has been mentioned before, the NN2 pipeline gives Germany leverage over Russia ,
not the other way around.
US => Germany => Russia.
Which is now plan b for the US. If then they can use their leverage over Germany to
steer it in any direction it wants to vs. Russia.
This will probably be followed by "targeted" sanctions on specific Politicians, Bankers
and Heads of industry. They only need to propose such sanctions individually for them
to have an effect. Using Pegasus for inside information to Blackmail those it wants to.
*****
Example of a sanctions racket :
Similar to the potential sanctions on any Lebanese Politian or Group Leaders if they get Oil
from Iran, Russia or China. The Lebanese population be damned.
"Apparently US Treasury has informed the government of Lebanon, that if any Oil
products from Iran make it into Lebanon, in any way; the government of Lebanon and all its
members will be sanctioned. This includes the Central Bankers"
Just in case you didn't understand how the crisis in the country is manufactured.
Pegasus again:
"leaks on the targets of Israeli spy program Pegasus, show hundreds in
Lebanon including the elected leadership of every party, every media outlet, & every
security agency, have been targeted by clients in 10 countries; all belonging to the
Imperialist camp.
But it is very easy to guess by looking at who are the external imperialist forces
active in Lebanon. USA/UK/France/Turkey/Germany/Canada/Israel/Qatar; that's eight. Plus Saudi
Arabia." *******
PS. Lebanon; This comes as a response to Sayyed Nasrallah stating in his last speech
that if the State in Lebanon is not able to provide fuel, he will bring it at the expense of
Hizbullah from Iran, dock it in the port of Beirut, and dared anyone to stop it from reaching
the people.
*****
Germany will only be the latest victim as the Mafia-US "protection" racket is ramped
up.
Both b and the many commenters raise excellent points. Yes, the US wants to hurt both Russia
and Germany. And yes the US *definitely* fears close cooperation between Moscow and Berlin.
But the main take home lesson is that the US failed despite enormous efforts to block NS2.
Russo-German cooperation is inevitable and the world will be better for it.
>>a lot of people think China is robbing Russia blind on the deal
Why would be Russia building Power of Siberia 2 and 3 to China then? Or selling LNG too?
You don't have much knowledge on the topic, the way it looks. A giant gas plant was built
near the border with China, the second biggest gas plant in the world, because the gas for
China is rich in rare elements, thus turning Russia in of the the biggest producers of
strategic helium, not to mention extracting many other rare elements. China gets gas that has
been cleaned of anything valuable from it, with the exception of the gas itself.
>>merkel is leaving anyway in September and thw Green party that will be taking
over
The latest polls show clear lead for CDU/CSU. And it looks like its too late.
>>the NS2 will never be 100 usable, tthe Green party will see to that. AT best it
will be only 50% usage.
Do you even follow what has been going on? Germany is free not to buy russian gas, that
is, to be left without gas if this is what it wants.
Do you see how nat gas prices exploded in Europe recently? Do you know why is that?
Because Russia refuses to sell additional volumes via Ukraine's network. It is a message to
finish the issues with NS 2 pipeline faster and then everything will be fine, there will be
plenty of space for new gas volumes, and the gas price will drop.
It is the UNSC resolutions of 2006, 2007 and 2010 which have laid the backbone for the
incremental diplomatic, economic and material warfare against Iran. Without them, there would
be no narrative framing Iran as an outlaw nor justification for crippling sanctions. That
Iran should even be subjected to the JCPOA is in itself an objective injustice.
Each of these resolutions could easily have been blocked by the two permanent members of
the UNSC we go to much lengths on this forum to depict as selfless adversaries of the Empire.
All they had to do was raise a finger and say niet. In other words, by their actions, these
two members placed Iran in a very disadvantageous trading position.
So, did they profit from this position of strength?
"According to the draft deal, obtained by Bloomberg, Washington and Berlin would
threaten sanctions and other retaliation if Russia 'tries to use energy as a weapon against
Ukraine', with Germany being obligated to take unspecified actions in the event of Russian
'misbehaviour' . [My Emphasis]
The article then turns to the interview:
"Professor Glenn Diesen of the University of South-Eastern Norway has explained what is
behind the US-Germany row is." [That last "is" appears to be a typo]
I suggest barflies pay close attention to Dr. Diesen who's the author of an outstanding
book on the geoeconomics of Russia and China, Russia's Geoeconomic Strategy for a Greater
Eurasia . I judge the following Q&A to be most relevant:
"Sputnik: The Biden administration waived sanctions on the firm behind the gas project,
Nord Stream 2 AG, and its chief executive, Matthias Warnig. At the same time, Secretary of
State Antony Blinken stated in June that the pipeline project was a Russian tool for the
coercion of Europe and signaled that the US has leverage against it. What's behind
Washington's mixed signals with regard to the project? How could they throw sand in Nord
Stream 2's gears, in your opinion - or are Blinken's threats empty?
"Glenn Diesen: The mixed signals demonstrate that the completion of Nord Stream 2 was a
defeat for the US. Biden confirmed that he waived sanctions because the project was near
complete. Sanctions could not stop the project [link at original], rather they would merely
continue to worsen relations with Berlin and Moscow. The best approach for Washington at this
point is to recognise that Nord Stream 2 is a done deal, and instead Washington will direct
its focus towards limiting the geo-economics consequences of the pipeline by obtaining
commitments from Berlin such as preserving Ukraine's role as a transit state [Link at
original].
"The US therefore waives sanctions against Nord Stream 2, yet threatens new sanctions if
Berlin fails to accept US conditions and limitations on Nord Stream 2. Blinken's threats
are loaded with 'strategic ambiguity', which could be aimed to conceal that they are merely
empty threats . However, strategic ambiguity is also conducive to prevent Berlin from
calculating the "costs" and possible remedies to US threats. Furthermore, ambiguity can be
ideal in terms of how to respond as it is not a good look to continuously threaten allies."
[Emphasis original]
The professor's closing remarks are also very important regarding Merkel's successor.
Where I disagree is with the notion that the Outlaw US Empire has geoeconomic leverage over
the EU--military yes, but the Empire is just as uncompetitive versus the EU as it is versus
China.
So, did they profit from this position of strength?
Of course they did, let's be real. China and Russia are not going to be the all benevolent saviors of the world, they never
were, never will.
They will always serve their interests first and foremost. Sometimes, they do get suckered
into UNSC resolutions like those you spoke of. Sometimes, there're backroom horse trading
that we're not privy to and little countries are just chips on the table...
The best we can hope for is that they can behave with more integrity than currently shown
by the incumbent anglospheric bloc in their re-ascendancy.
Either we ditch the UNSC system or everybody get nukes, because i can't see the current
UNSC members willing ditch their own, ever.
Lysander is correct.
The most important point to know is that US hegemony in Europe is predicated on fear and
hostility between Germany and Russia.
Types of interdependence between Germany and Russia, eg. NRG security, are a direct threat
to US dominance over Europe as a whole.
There are many limitations to European strategic autonomy -- and the EU embodies those
limits in many ways -- but the case of NS2 demonstrates an independent streak in German
strategy. It amounts to a zero sum loss for Washington.
Way too much confusion over what Nord Stream 2 really means.
1) Russian gas transiting Ukraine had already fallen from 150 bcm to the high 90s/low 100s
before Nord Stream 2 goes online.
Even after NS2 goes online, a significant amount of Russian gas will still transit via
Ukraine.
2) Energy demand generally increases over time, not decreases. Russian gas exports aren't
increasing in a straight line, but keep in mind that there are significant new competitors
now and in the process coming online. These include Azerbaijan as well as the ongoing
pipeline struggle through the Black Sea/Turkey/Eastern Med.
I never believed there was any chance of NS2 not completing; the only question was
when.
Lebanon does illustrate the incredible reach of the Empire. A leverage so long that every
door leads to self immolation. Your mention of the current spyware scandal is right on point.
These are instruments of absolute power.
What we need now is a worldwide Me Too movement to denounce this leverage. Taking that
first step would require a lot of courage for any blackmailed individual, but the one little
breach could lead to a flood of world citizens just about fed up with the Empire's shit.
It pains me that I do not remember exactly who it was, but one of the more erudite posters
here mentioned some time ago that Trump seemed more like a Bonapartist figure than a fascist
or a typical and simple representative of a faction in the oligarchy. While Trump is
certainly no representative of humanity, it just as certainly doesn't look like his rise was
in the playbook of the dominant faction of the oligarchy. Trump really seems to fit the mould
of a Bonapartist, though recast in the context of contemporary America. This would indicate
that the imperial oligarchy is in crisis, which itself could lead to fractures in the empire,
and among the empire's vassals in particular.
It is unwise to downplay the significance of Trump coming to power in 2016, regardless of
what feelings one may have about the individual himself. The conditions that led to the rise
of Trump not only persist, but have intensified. Those conditions cannot be resolved by mass
media gaslighting and social media censorship, which actually seems to be having an effect
more like holding the emergency relief valve on a boiler closed; it quiets an annoying sound,
but causes the underlying issue to grow more severe.
Basically, further splits in the EU are inevitable. It is the timing of those splits that
is difficult to predict, but the accuracy of that prediction hinges upon the accuracy of our
assessment of events occurring now. Interestingly, Trump is still part of these unfolding
events.
Fracturing NATO and the West hmmm ... If Germany gains any independence from U.S.
coercion they are 'fracturing Europe'. Bad Germany.
Germany must forever remain a vassal state of the U.S. by allowing the U.S. to use another
vassal state to control their energy supply. And who says we don't believe in freedom. Neocons are such vile creatures. Always twisting words but remember, whenever they say
something, the exact opposite is true.
One issue underlying this fiasco is I believe that the neocons / Atlantic Council were 100%
certain that Russia did not have the expertise to lay pipelines at the required depths, and
once Allseas was facing sanctions, the project would never be completed.
I believe that the exact pricing formula for Power of Siberia is confidential, but this
much is known:
"The price of Russian gas supplies to China increased in the second quarter of 2021 for
the first time since deliveries started via the Power of Siberia pipeline in 2019, but daily
delivery volumes fell in April, Interfax reported on Sunday.
Russian gas giant Gazprom GAZP.MM has said it supplied China with 3.84 billion cubic
metres of gas via the Power of Siberia pipeline in its first year of operation.
Citing Chinese customs data, Interfax said the price of gas increased to $148 per thousand
cubic metres, rising from $121 in the first quarter, and reversing a downward trend."
Also, Victoria Nuland informed the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today about Biden's
cave to Russia. That must have been brutal for her. Regardless, nice to see a rare display of
sanity from s US administration.
The primary and only objective of the US Foreign policy vis-a-vis Europe since WW2 has
been to prevent Russia and Germany (now read the German run EU project) coupling up, that's
it, nothing else matters on Europe.
The completion of N-2 presents a serious blow tho this aim, the new pipeline is a must for
Germany, it must get finished, without it Germany's supply of energy would have been almost
fully controlled by the Americans who have either direct or indirect authority over every
major source of hydrocarbons except for Venezuela and Russia, the latter only partly, the
Ukrainian pipeline is fully in their sphere of influence.
Energy fuels everything from private dwellings to major corporations, it's together with
labour and technology the most important ingredient in every economy. To lose control of it
would have been a catastrophe for Germany, in particular if one takes into account the secret
treaty between Germany and the Allies (read the US) from 1949.
"On 23 May 1949, the Western Allies ratified a new German constitution, known as the
"Basic Law" or Grundgesetz.
However, two days prior, a secret state treaty - Geheimer Staatsvertrag - was also signed to
grant complete Allied
control over education and all licensed media, press, radio, television and publishing houses
until the year 2099.
This was confirmed by Major-General Gerd-Helmut Komossa, former head of German Military
Intelligence in his
book, "Die Deutsche Karte" or The German Card".
What's interesting about Power of Siberia-1 is that the gas is being stripped -- refined at
the newly completed Amur Gas Plant -- of its components prior to being piped into China. I
don't know if Germany's petrochemical industry will be deprived in similar manner with
NS2.
CD Waller @36--
Nothing in the energy production realm is carbon neutral. ROSATOM has mastered the fuel
cycle which means most if not all toxic waste will now be burned for energy. New reactors do
NOT use water as coolant. Clearly you need to update what you know about nuclear power.
The Russian 'victory' is very narrow and mostly consists of the patience and determination to
follow-thru while consistently being derided/attacked by Western media, pundits, and
politicians:
Since Russia/Gasprom owns NS2 100% (paying for half the construction cost outright and
financing the rest), there was never much need to stop construction, only to stop/limit
consumption. The 'trick' was to find a way to accomplish US/NATO goals that would not make
German leaders look like puppets.
Biden's approach looks good compared to Trump's heavy-handed approach. As they are BOTH
spokesman of the Empire's Deep State, we can surmise that this is merely good cop / bad cop
theatrics.
This USA-GERMAN agreement makes Germany appear to voluntarily support EU/NATO -
a good thing(tm) that most Germans will accept without question. But behind the scenes,
it's unlikely that there was ever any real choice, just a mutual desire to fashion a
'smart' policy that didn't undermine German political leaders.
Germany can now be pressured to support USA-Ukraine belligerence - if they don't they
will be portrayed as not living up to their obligations to US/NATO/EU/Ukraine as enshrined
in this agreement.
If Russia retaliates against German purchase reductions in any way they will be labeled
as a politically-driven, unreliable supplier. That will 'invite' sanctions and spark
efforts to force EU/Germany to eliminate all Russia goods from their markets.
Russia and China are likely to be increasingly linked in Western media/propaganda.
Deficiencies of one or the other will apply to BOTH.
The next few winters in EU will be very interesting.
Jackrabbit @41 incorrectly says Russia owns NS2 100% It's owned by Nord Stream 2 AG, and
here's its
website listing its financial investors, while its shareholders/owners are global. The
company is located in Zug, Switzerland. Here we are told who the financial companies
are :
"In April 2017, Nord Stream 2 AG signed the financing agreements for the Nord Stream 2 gas
pipeline project with ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper, and Wintershall. These five
European energy companies will provide long-term financing for 50 per cent of the total cost
of the project."
As with the first string, Russia doesn't own it 100% nor did it finance it completely;
rather, its stake was @50% It appears both Nord Streams will be managed from the same
location in Zug. I hope the company produces a similar sort of book to record its
accomplishment as it did for the first string pair, which can be found and downloaded here
.
Who is paying for it: Russia's energy giant Gazprom is the sole shareholder of the
Nord Stream 2 AG , the company in charge of implementing the €9.5 billion ($11.1
billion) project. Gazprom is also covering half of the cost. The rest, however, is being
financed by five western companies: ENGIE, OMV, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper and
Wintershall.
Emphasis is mine.
<> <> <> <> <>
Nord Stream 2 AG is a German company that is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Russia's
Gazprom. The German subsidiary has borrowed half of the construction cost but is 100% owner
of the NS2 project.
From karlof1's link to Nord Stream 2 AG's Shareholder and Financial Investors page makes it
clear that NordStream 2 AG is a subsidiary of Gazprom international projects LLC, which is,
in turn, a subsidiary of Gazprom. Under "Shareholder" there is only one company listed:
Gasprom.
PS I was mistaken: Nord Stream 2 AG is a Swiss company, not a German one.
"4. Germany can now be pressured to support USA-Ukraine belligerence - if they don't they
will be portrayed as not living up to their obligations to US/NATO/EU/Ukraine as enshrined in
this agreement.
If Russia retaliates against German purchase reductions in any way they will be labeled as
a politically-driven, unreliable supplier. That will 'invite' sanctions and spark efforts to
force EU/Germany to eliminate all Russia goods from their markets."
Germany has been portrayed as not living up to its NATO obligations one way or another
since about 1985, and with respect to NS 2, since 2018. They do not seem fazed - maybe a
Green win would change that. If the USA-Ukraine get (more) belligerent, Germany might be less
likely to insist on Ukraine gas transit after 2024.
The Russian government owns a majority of Gazprom. As majority owner they can be said to
control the company and with that control comes an inescapable political dimension.
For the purposes of this discussion: the Russian government has biggest stake in the
financial success of Nord Stream 2. That "success" depends on gas sold, not simply the
completion of NS2 construction.
Merkel is meeting with President Joe Biden on Thursday this week, and said while
she will discuss the issue at the White House, she does not believe the matter will be resolved
at that time.
"I don't know whether the papers will be fully finalized, so to speak. I believe rather
not," Merkel said. "But these will be important talks for developing a common position."
Sanctions imposed against German companies involved in the project by the U.S. were recently
waived, which raised hopes in Berlin that the two countries may soon be able to find an
acceptable agreement on the matter.
For more reporting from the Associated Press, see below.
Washington has long argued that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline carrying natural gas from Russia
to Germany endangers Europe's energy security and harms allies such as Ukraine, which currently
profits from transit fees for Russian gas.
Germany is keen to increase its use of natural gas as it completes the shutdown of its
nuclear power plants next year and phases out the use of heavily polluting coal by 2038.
Merkel's comments to reporters in Berlin came ahead of a meeting with Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has warned that Nord Stream 2 poses a threat to his country's energy
security. Should Russia route all of its gas around Ukraine in the future, the country might be
cut off from the supplies it needs, putting it at further risk of being pressured by
Moscow.
Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and supports separatists in Ukraine's eastern
industrial heartland of Donbas.
Zelenskyy said he was looking for guarantees that Ukraine will remain a transit country for
Russian gas beyond 2024. He also suggested that the gas issue should become part of four-way
talks between his country, Russia, Germany and France on solving the conflict in eastern
Ukraine and that the United States could join those negotiations.
Merkel said she took Ukraine's concerns seriously and that Germany and the European Union would use
their weight in negotiations with Russia to ensure the agreements are extended.
"We have promised this to Ukraine and we will stick to that. I keep my promises and I
believe that is true also for any future German chancellor," she said.
Merkel isn't running for a fifth term in Germany's national election on Sept.
26.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, not
pictured, give statements ahead of talks at the Chancellery in Berlin, Monday, July 12, 2021.
Stefanie Loos/Pool Photo via AP
There are a lot of things that can be done to mitigate problems due to declining oil
production. When it comes to SA, they can start using natural gas from Ghawar or Qatar to
replace fuel oil for power generation during especially summer.
Okay, first point: Qatar has plenty of natural gas. The problem is they are in a feud with
Saudi and they do not trade with each other:
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with
Qatar in mid-2017 after accusing the country of supporting terrorism. Qatar has repeatedly
denied the accusations. The boycotting countries, known as the Arab quartet, also cited
political differences with Qatar over Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Second point: Saudi does not have nearly enough natural gas to power their own power plants
and desalination plants:
New York CNN Business --
Saudi Arabia has placed a huge bet on American natural gas.
In a sign of shifting energy fortunes, Saudi Aramco announced a mega preliminary
agreement on Wednesday to buy 5 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year from a Port
Arthur, Texas export project that's under development.
If completed, the purchase from San Diego-based Sempra Energy (SRE) would be one of the
largest LNG deals ever signed, according to consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.
But this may change. Saudi is desperate for natural gas and this has led them to try to make
amends with Qatar:
(CNN)Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies agreed on Tuesday to restore diplomatic relations
with Qatar and restart flights to and from the country, ending a three-year boycott of the tiny
gas-rich nation.
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with
Qatar in mid-2017 after accusing the country of supporting terrorism. Qatar has repeatedly
denied the accusations.
The boycotting countries, known as the Arab quartet, also cited political differences
with Qatar over Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. Doha, unlike its Gulf neighbors, has friendly
relations with Tehran, supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and has hosted groups
affiliated with the Islamist group.
Qatar's only land border -- which it shares with Saudi Arabia -- was sealed shut.
Boycotting countries closed their airspace to Qatar, and nearby Bahrain and the UAE closed
their maritime borders to ships carrying the Qatari flag.
REPLYRATIONALLUDDITE IGNORED
06/08/2021 at 8:29 pm
Fantastic Ron. Too many people practising truth by assertion and liar's bluff / wishful
thinking. They won't change, but you persuade others whom are genuinely seeking the truth and
can distinguish between evidence supported logic and security blanket speculation.
SA is going to end badly, as too will fever dreams that don't realise that their electric
transition is a mirage – largely it's all fossil fuels in disguise and totally parasitic
on upon the peak energy infrastructure of previous and current fossil fuel excess calories.
We may have an Electric Middle Ages (Ugo Bardi), but unless a new energy source AT LEAST as
energy dense and net positive as FF is discovered like yesterday then this lovely wealth Blip
we all enjoyed is going away.
Who caused the flight to be diverted is still uncertain to me. It's clear that Roman was
the target though. And that relations between the West and Russia are suffering.
With that said, I think it's worthwhile to note that this new low in relations is
something that is not in Russia's interest as NordStream2 is still under attack.
Some say that Nordstream 2 is unstoppable. Well, the completion of the pipeline is near
but whether Germany buys gas from Russia and/or how much gas is still a question. The Empire
opposition to NS2 has been relentless but they may accept a pipeline that guarantees German
energy security yet demand that it restrict purchases of Russian gas to only what is
absolutely necessary.
Barring a mistranslation, Putin said that continued gas transit through Ukraine depends on
Ukraine's behaviour. Based on a quick impression, that contracts pretty much every previous
Russian / Gazprom statement that Garprom intends to retain same flows through Ukraine. No one
expects Russia to keep flows in the event of hostilities, but to give opponents of the
pipeline a soundbyte to say "see, we told you they would do that" is a shocking blunder.
Actually, he kept repeating that the current transit contract will be maintained, but that
if Ukraine wants to increase the volume of gas that goes through their territory, and
subsequently earn more money from transit contracts, they have to make that option more
lucrative for customers and suppliers. Primarily, by breaking up the gas monopoly on that
territory -- harking back to the consortium suggestion by Shroeder in 2008-2009(?).
That said, he was fairly blunt about the advantages of supplying gas directly to Germany
and the lack of any strictly economical reason to use Ukrainian gas transit, and that's a
fairly obvious aspect of this entire project -- provided that the capacity of these auxiliary
pipelines isn't exceeded, there's no good economic reason to use the Ukrainian
infrastructure.
When asked about Ukrainian financial woes, in the comical context of Zelensky complaining
that the gas transit income is essential for financing the Ukrainian army, he replied
sardonically that it's not the responsibility of the Russian state to keep the Ukrainian
state fed. There's a sort of Russian gag, where a guy asks his neighbor for something to eat,
so that he has the strength to take a dump on his doorstep, which neatly fits the
situation.
Biden backed down on Nordstream 2 and, at The Davos Crowd's insistence, he will back down on
the JCPOA.
Davos needs cheap energy into Europe. That's ultimately what the JCPOA was all about. The
basic framework for the deal is still there. While the U.S. will kick and scream a bit about
sanctions relief, Iran will be back into the oil market and make it possible for Europe to once
again invest in oil/gas projects in Iran.
Now
that Benjamin Netanyahu is no longer going to be leading Israel, the probability of
breakthrough is much much higher than last week. The Likudniks in Congress and the Senate just
lost their raison d'etre. The loss of face for Israel in Bibi's latest attempt to bludgeon Gaza
to retain power backfired completely.
U.S. policy towards Israel is shifting rapidly as the younger generations, Gen-X and
Millennials, simply don't have the same allegiance to Israel that the Baby Boomers and Silent
generations did. It is part of a geopolitical ethos which is outdated.
So, with some deal over Iran's nuclear capability in the near future, Europe will then get
gas pipelines from Iran through Turkey as well as gain better access to the North South
Transport Corridor which is now unofficially part of China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Russia, now that Nordstream 2 is nearly done, will not balk at this. In fact, they'll
welcome it. It forms the basis for a broader, sustainable peace arrangement in the Middle East.
What's lost is the Zionist program for Greater Israel and continued sowing dissent between
exhausted participants.
But the big geopolitical win for Davos, they think, is that by returning Iran to the oil
markets it will cut down on Russia's dominance there. That the only reason Russia is the price
setter in oil today, as the producer of the marginal barrel, is because of Trump taking Iranian
and Venezuelan oil off the market.
With these negotiations ongoing and likely to conclude soon I'm sure the thinking is that
this will help save Iranian moderates in the upcoming elections. But with Iran's Guardian
Council paving the way for Ebrahim Raeisi to win the election that is also very unlikely(
H/T to Pepe
Escobar's latest on this ) :
So Raeisi now seems to be nearly a done deal: a relatively faceless bureaucrat without the
profile of an IRGC hardliner, well known for his anti-corruption fight and care about the
poor and downtrodden. On foreign policy, the crucial fact is that he will arguably follow
crucial IRGC dictates.
Raeisi is already spinning that he "negotiated quietly" to secure the qualification of
more candidates, "to make the election scene more competitive and participatory". The problem
is no candidate has the power to sway the opaque decisions of the 12-member Guardian Council,
composed exclusively by clerics: only Ayatollah Khamenei.
I have no doubt that Iran is, as Escobar suggests, in post-JCPOA mode now and will walk away
from Geneva without a deal if need be, but Davos will cut the deal it needs to bring the oil
and gas into Europe while still blaming the U.S. for Iran's nuclear ambitions because they've
gotten what they actually wanted, Netanyahu out of power.
Seeing the tenor of these negotiations and the return of Obama to the White House, the
Saudis saw the writing on the wall immediately and began peace talks with Iran in Baghdad put
off for a year because of Trump's killing Soleimani.
The Saudis are fighting for their lives now as the Shia Crescent forms and China holds the
House of Saud's future in its hands.
Syria will be restored to the Arab League and all that 'peace' work by Trump will be undone
quickly. Because none of it was actually peaceful in its implementation. Netanyahu is gone,
Israel just got
defeated by Hamas and now the rest of the story can unfold, put on hold by four years of
Jared Kushner's idiocy and U.S. neoconservatives feeding Trump bad information about the
situation.
The Saker put together two lists in his latest article (linked above) which puts the entire
situation into perspective:
The Goals:
Bring down a strong secular Arab state along with its political structure, armed forces,
and security services.
Create total chaos and horror in Syria justifying the creation of a "security zone" by
Israel not only in the Golan but further north.
Trigger a civil war in Lebanon by unleashing the Takfiri crazies against Hezbollah.
Let the Takfiris and Hezbollah bleed each other to death, then create a "security zone,"
but this time in Lebanon.
Prevent the creation of a Shia axis Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
Break up Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
Create a Kurdistan which could then be used against Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
Make it possible for Israel to become the uncontested power broker in the Middle-East
and force the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and all others to have to go to Israel for any gas
or oil pipeline project.
Gradually isolate, threaten, subvert, and eventually attack Iran with a broad regional
coalition of forces.
Eliminate all centers of Shia power in the Middle-East.
The Outcomes:
The Syrian state has survived, and its armed and security forces are now far more
capable than they were before the war started (remember how they almost lost the war
initially? The Syrians bounced back while learning some very hard lessons. By all reports,
they improved tremendously, while at critical moments Iran and Hezbollah were literally
"plugging holes" in the Syrian frontlines and "extinguishing fires" on local flashpoints.
Now the Syrians are doing a very good job of liberating large chunks of their country,
including every single city in Syria).
Not only is Syria stronger, but the Iranians and Hezbollah are all over the country now,
which is driving the Israelis into a state of panic and rage.
Lebanon is rock solid; even the latest Saudi attempt to kidnap Hariri is backfiring.
(2021 update: in spite of the explosion in Beirut, Hezbollah is still in charge)
Syria will remain unitary, and Kurdistan is not happening. Millions of displaced
refugees are returning home.
Israel and the US look like total idiots and, even worse, as losers with no credibility
left.
The net result is everyone in the region who were aggressors are now suing for peace. This
is why I expect some kind of deal that returns Iran to the global economy. There's no way for
Germany's shiny new trade deal with China to work without this.
Trump's hard line against Iran was always a mistake, even if Iran's nuclear ambitions are
real. But with the Open Skies treaty now a dead letter the U.S. has real logistical problems in
the region and they only multiply if Erdogan in Turkey finally chooses a side and gives up his
Neo-Ottoman ambitions, now very likely.
But when it comes to economics, as always, Davos has this all backwards vis a vis oil. They
still think they can use the JCPOA to drive a wedge between Iran and Russia over oil. They
still think Putin only cares about oil and gas sales abroad. It's clear they don't listen to
him because the policy never seems to change.
So, to Davos, if they bring 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day from Iran back online and oil
prices drop, this forces Russia to back down militarily and diplomatically in Eastern Europe.
With a free-floated ruble the Russians don't care now that they are mostly self-sufficient in
food and raw material production.
None of that will come to pass. Putin is shifting the Russian economy away from oil and gas
with an announced ambitious domestic spending plan ahead of this fall's State Duma elections.
Lower or even stable prices will accelerate those plans as capital no longer finds its best
return in that sector.
This carrot to Iran and stick to Russia approach of Brussels/Davos is childish and it will
only get worse when the Greens come to power in Germany at the end of the year. Unless the
German elections end in a stalemate which is unforeseen, the CDU will grand coalition as the
junior partner to the Greens, just as Davos wants it.
Don't miss the significance of the policy bifurcation either when it comes to oil. The Biden
administration is trying to make energy as expensive as possible in the U.S. -- no Keystone
Pipeline, Whitmer trying to close down Enbridges's Line 5 from Canada into Michigan, etc. --
while Europe gets Nordstream 2 from Russia and new, cheap supplies from Iran.
This is what had Trump so hopping mad when he was President. This is part of why he hated
the JCPOA. Israel and the EastMed pipeline was what should have been the U.S. policy in his
mind.
Now, those dreams are dead and the sell out of the U.S. to Davos is in full swing.
Seriously, Biden/Obama are going to continue on this path of undermining U.S. energy production
until they are thrown out of office, either by the overwhelming shame of the election fraud
lawsuits which recall Senators from Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, the mid-term elections which
brings a more pro-Trump GOP to power or by military force. That last bit I put a very low
probability on.
Bottom line, for now global oil prices have likely peaked no matter what drivel comes out of
John Kerry's mouth.
The Brent/WTI spread will likely collapse and go negative for the first time in years as
Iran's full oil production comes online over the next two years while U.S. production falls.
We'll see rising oil prices in the U.S. while global supply rises, some of which China is
getting at a steep discount from who? Iran.
Meanwhile Russia continues to hold the EU to account on everything while unmasking the not
just the latest Bellingcat/MI6/State Dept. nonsense in Belarus surrounding the arrest of Roman
Petrosovich, but also filling the void diplomatically left by a confused and incompetent U.S.
policy in the Middle East.
If I'm the Bennett in Israel, the first phone call I make after taking office is to no one
other than Putin, who now holds the reins over Iran, Hezbollah and a very battle-hardened and
angry Syria who just re-elected Assad because he navigated the assault on the country with no
lack of geopolitical skill.
Because it is clear that Biden/Obama, on behalf of Davos , have left Israel out to twist in
the wind surrounded by those who wish it gone. We'll see if they get their wish. I think the
win here is clear and the days of U.S. adventurism in the Middle East are numbered.
The oil wars aren't over, by any stretch of the imagination, but the outcome of the main
battles have decisively shifted who determines what battles are fought next.
About time that fcking Project for the New American Century(aka Greater Israel from the
Nile to the Euphates) got derailed .
Fcking useless neocon sh its gutted and bankrupted the U.S. for their fcked up ziosh it
garbage.
Sheldon Adelson belongs in the Aus witz Mengele suite in hell. He was the biggest
cheerleader for the last 20 years of this hell on earth that was created in the middle
east.
Woodenman 2 hours ago remove link
Trump got it *** backwards , he should have defunded Israel and fast tracked Iran to be
a nuclear power, Iran is an oil producer, what does Israel do for us?
Would I care that Israel cannot sleep at night knowing Iran has the bomb, not at
all.
AGuy 37 minutes ago
" what does Israel do for us? "
Keeps the ME unstable so the US has the excuse to keep a lot of military resources in
the ME, in the name of being the worlds policemen. Plus the US needs to protect the Petro
dollar, but at this point I don't think that will matter soon considering the amount of
money printing & spending the US is doing at the momement.
wellwaddyaknow 2 hours ago (Edited)
Soleimani was very good at destroying ISIS trash.
And which countries backed ISIS?
JR Wirth 2 hours ago
NeoCon tears as the world attempts to move on from deranged foreign policy. Will the US
throw a fit and drag the world into war? Let's call Tel Aviv and find out.
Der Steppenwolf 2 hours ago remove link
Iran already sells huge amounts of oil to China and likely many others, there just isn't
going to be a significant increase in Iranian oil hitting the market as a result of any
deal. Moreover, this relatively small increase will occur over time. Even if Iran
eventually increases production the 2.5-3 million bpd the author cites, world consumption
in 2021 is forecast to increase about 6 million bpd over 2020. Considering these facts any
changes in Iranian oil production should do little to affect the overall
price.
lay_arrow
AGuy 42 minutes ago
" Iran has huge potential to increase production "
I doubt that very much. Iran has very old oil fields which have been producing since the
1920s. Global Oil production peaked in 2018 & is now in permanent decline. Iran could
increase NatGas production, but Oil production is in permanent decline.
Apollo 32 minutes ago
God, I hope half of the above comes true. Bibi needs to be court martialed and Israel
needs to go back into smaller and more peaceful version of itself (if that is even
possible) . USA can just bugger off home, and try to deal with transgendered army,
president's dementia and critical race theory nonsense first.
What the world needs is less wars, less central bankers screwing the game and less
stealing of other people's natural resources. Instead it just more plain old hard work,
honest trading and no bs diplomacy.
dead hobo 1 hour ago (Edited) remove link
Amazingly perfect analysis.
Israel will survive. I wish them well.
So many US wars are oil based. Lies abound to cover this up. Neocon Economics turns
every war opportunity into a profit center. No Profit = No War potential. Whenever you see
a Neocon pumping a war somewhere, you need to look for who will make scads of money from
it.
Trump isn't an angel. He's the guy who destroyed Establishment Republicanism. That begat
populism. I detested him working his book when he pumped QE and ZIRP. I considered it a
temporary price to pay to remove Establishment Republicans from the world. Yes, the US also
needed a good Front Door with a lock. He also did good there. Trump playing the Imperialism
Game clumsily worked in the favor of Peaceful Coexistence. Probably by mistake. Ok by me if
everyone else declares peace anyway.
The US economy can still outpower anyone even if it is forced to play fair.
This brings us to the Deep State. Who exactly are they?
Are they Neocons who want war profits by making it look like others are the war mongers?
Are they anti-peace as long as it doesn't start a full blown war - providing a profit can
be made from it by their oligarch bosses?
Or is the Deep State the Davos oriented oligarchs who wants the 99% to whistle while
they work to support uncountable billions of dollars flowing into the asset piles of the
1%?
Why did the Deep State allow the BLM / Antifa / Democrat cabal take over? Are they
stupid? Or did they think Covid-19 along with these freaks would work in their favor
somehow?
Is the Deep State only common ordinary Imperialism? Is it only oil, and natural gas and
who gets to control the markets? Ukraine has a lot of natural resources. Is that a
coincidence?
What is it about Peaceful Coexistence that makes them go crazy?
What does The Deep State really want?
AGuy 49 minutes ago
" The only difference will be the wars will be fought for lithium and other rare metals.
"
Unlikely Oil will remain the King for causing wars. electricification of transportation
is doomed to fail. First average Americans cannot afford EV. heck they are struggling with
cheaper ICE vehicles. Auto loan duration have ballooned & most Americans are rolling
over debt from their older vehicle when they buy a new one. Second the grid is struggling.
Most of the older power plants are getting replaced by NatGas fired plants & at some
point we are going to see NatGas prices shoot up. Much of the US grid was built in the
1930s & 1940s and will need trillions just to maintain it and replace equipment &
power lines operating beyond their expected operating lifetime.
The US economy is slowly collapsing: Mountains of debt, demographics, dumbed down
education, and worthless degrees for Millennials, failing infrastructure (ie I-40 bridge).
We are on borrowed time.
AJAX-2 1 hour ago remove link
The fly in the ointment is that the banksters desperately need higher oil prices to prop
up their derivative portfolios. As a result, they are at odds with the Davos Crowd and
their desire for cheap/plentiful oil for Europe. We shall see who prevails.
AGuy 1 hour ago
" The fly in the ointment is that the banksters desperately need higher oil prices to
prop up their derivative portfolios. "
Nope:
Higher oil prices leads to higher defaults, which is likely to trigger derivative
losses. Banker shady deals come under congressional\agency scrutiny usually ending with
billion dollar fines, and bad press. A lot of banks probably will get nationalized when the
next banking crisis happens & all those bankers will lose out on the financial scams
they play.
European Monarchist 46 minutes ago remove link
Currently:
The Syrian state has survived, and its armed and security forces are now far more
capable than they were before the war started (remember how they almost lost the war
initially? The Syrians bounced back while learning some very hard lessons. By all
reports, they improved tremendously, while at critical moments Iran and Hezbollah
were literally "plugging holes" in the Syrian frontlines and "extinguishing fires" on
local flashpoints. Now the Syrians are doing a very good job of liberating large
chunks of their country, including every single city in Syria).
Not only is Syria stronger, but the Iranians and Hezbollah are all over the
country now, which is driving the Israelis into a state of panic and rage.
Lebanon is rock solid; even the latest Saudi attempt to kidnap Hariri is
backfiring. (2021 update: in spite of the explosion in Beirut, Hezbollah is still in
charge)
Syria will remain unitary, and Kurdistan is not happening. Millions of displaced
refugees are returning home.
Israel and the US look like total idiots and, even worse, as losers with no
credibility left.
The net result is everyone in the region who were aggressors are now suing for peace.
This is why I expect some kind of deal that returns Iran to the global economy. There's
no way for Germany's shiny new trade deal with China to work without this.
ut218 2 hours ago remove link
Solarcycle 25 had a bad start. By 2028 people will realize we are in a period of global
cooling. oil prices will soar
Itinerant 18 minutes ago
There won't be major investments of European majors in Iran's oil industry.
For Iran, Western partners have proved too fickle
For Western corporations, the risk is too great for long term investment.
China will be reaping most of the investement opportunities.
2 play_arrow
Marrubio 1 hour ago
.... the NWO & Davos idiotards ,they have been trying since March for oil not to
exceed the $ 70 barrier and they are not succeeding. Week after week they try to lower the
price, frightening with the covid, the production of Iran or whatever, and the following
week the oil rises again. The only thing left for them is mass slaughter ... but now people
know that what is going to kill them is in the "vaccine". Of course they will be stupid
enough to do it; if they have shown anything it is that they are profoundly idiots. They
will not be successful in getting cheap oil, simply because PeakOil is running since 2018
and since then oil production decreases at 5% per year: -5% per year, I am telling to the
NWO deep idiotards.
European Monarchist 55 minutes ago (Edited)
Interesting, but it remains to be seen where this is going, short term and long.
Now
that Benjamin Netanyahu is no longer going to be leading Israel, the probability of
breakthrough is much much higher than last week. The Likudniks in Congress and the Senate
just lost their raison d'etre. The loss of face for Israel in Bibi's latest attempt to
bludgeon Gaza to retain power backfired completely.
U.S. policy towards Israel is shifting rapidly as the younger generations, Gen-X and
Millennials, simply don't have the same allegiance to Israel that the Baby Boomers and
Silent generations did. It is part of a geopolitical ethos which is outdated.
So, with some deal over Iran's nuclear capability in the near future, Europe will then
get gas pipelines from Iran through Turkey as well as gain better access to the North
South Transport Corridor which is now unofficially part of China's Belt and Road
Initiative.
Russia, now that Nordstream 2 is nearly done, will not balk at this. In fact, they'll
welcome it. It forms the basis for a broader, sustainable peace arrangement in the Middle
East. What's lost is the Zionist program for Greater Israel and continued sowing dissent
between exhausted participants.
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Einstein101 55 minutes ago remove link
Now the Syrians are doing a very good job of liberating large chunks of their
country, including every single city in Syria).
Really? Hell no! The Syrians and the mighty Russians and the Hezbollah for many months
now are not able to overcome lowly terrorists militia in northern Syria's Idlib. Plus,
the Israelis has been launching hundreds of airstrikes over Syria while the Russian made
Syrian anti air defense can do nothing about it.
NORDSTREAM. Washington has lifted sanctions on German companies involved with the pipeline
but imposed
new ones on Russian entities . What are we to make of this? A realisation that Berlin is
determined on completion combined with face-saving meaningless toughness. Amusingly Biden's now
being called " Putin's $5
million man " (because of the supposed payout by the pipeline to the supposed Russian
supposed hackers). Nordstream was a " key Putin goal ",
giving
power to Putin , what does he have
on him ? Hilarious, isn't it? Biden loved it then: here he is calling Trump Putin's puppy
.
I saw this today and while I can't say it is surprising, I am sorry that we are officially
at the end of the "engagement" period with China. I hate to see our major challenges in the
world increase.
I was wondering if you think we will officially recategorize our relationship with Russia,
too? If so, would you expect us to also label that "competitive?" How do you think this change
in our China stance will affect Russia?
Thanks.
"The U.S. is entering a period of intense competition with China as the government running
the world's second-biggest economy becomes ever more tightly controlled by President Xi
Jinping, the White House's top official for Asia said. "The period that was broadly described
as engagement has come to an end," Kurt Campbell, the U.S. coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs
on the National Security Council, said Wednesday at an event hosted by Stanford University.
U.S. policy toward China will now operate under a "new set of strategic parameters," Campbell
said, adding that "the dominant paradigm is going to be competition." (via Bloomberg News)
Reply
Dollar short and a day late. The US has lost the competition.
The USA was mighty because of tremendous manufacturing capacity, great inventiveness and
the ability to harness that, political stability and the "American Dream" had sufficient
reality. What's left of that? And the same applies to the West in general.
As to Moscow, why would it ever trust Washington?
One can't blame everything on Israel. Yes, it is part of five eyes, more like SIX
eyes.
Biden (JB) is building a coalition to challenge China. JB's administration wants to
neutralize Russia. Nord Stream 2 is an element of contention and by making a concession JB is
making Germany and Russia happy. Agree, that its completion will be a "huge geopolitical win
for Putin". Let's see when Nord Stream 2 becomes fully operational. Time will tell.
Russia's main focus is De-Dollarization, stability in Russia and in its neighborhood.
China's announcement about Bitcoin led to it dropping by 30%. What will China, Russia,
Turkey and Iran announcement about the U$A dollar do to its value and the market? When will
China become the #1 ECONOMY?
The US is now the largest provider of LNG, so there is relatively little more financial
advantage to be gained from a direct confrontation with Germany or Russia. Political maybe,
but the dedollarisation is starting to take hold. (Aside; even Israel depends on the strength
of the dollar to continue, like musical chairs, when the music stops there will be
precious few chairs left ). The Gas/Oil lobbies in the US who are behind the sanctions
may have some other trick up their sleeve, but the deflation of Zelensky in Ukraine, and the
opening up of a steal-fest of Ukrainian assets might compensate.
***
Note that the West has closed Syrian Embassies so as to stop Syrians voting for Assad. They
steal it's oil, and Syria is still next to Israel and doing relatively well in spite of
tanker bombings, and missiles. It is also possible that, as you say, there is a price for
non-interference in Israel itself.
The The Hill piece linked in the week in review here confirms our suspicions Ukraine has
become a financial black hole for the West, and the USA is trying to get rid of it by
throwing it to the EU's arms:
Instead of expending diplomatic capital on a campaign to stop Nord Stream 2, the Biden
administration should work with its European partners to prepare Ukraine to withstand the
pipeline's completion. The deadline for action is 2024, when Kyiv's current gas contract
and President Biden's term effectively end. By that time, Washington and Brussels should
formulate and implement an economic package that, first and foremost, covers Ukraine's
inevitable budget shortfall from the loss of transit fees to keep the Ukrainian state
running. This package should, however, also invest in the country's sustainable growth.
That would entail material and technical support for Kyiv's ongoing anti-corruption
campaign, whose success is a prerequisite for attracting long-term investment. One idea
worth considering is a loan to cover revenue shortfalls, whose repayment would be
incrementally forgiven in exchange for concrete progress on reforms by Kyiv.
That won't happen. The easiest way you can infer that is that the USA and Germany don't
even have the resources to invest in green energy in their own territories, let alone on
third-parties' territories. Hell, the USA doesn't even have the resources to rebuild Puerto
Rico.
This is not the 1950s. The American Empire's bottomless pocket is no more.
Glenn Greenwald writes that President Trump acted more hostile to Russia than President
Biden does, even while the media claimed that Trump was 'a Russian agent'. It is probably a
fair point to make but in his piece Greenwald himself falls for anti-Russian propaganda
nonsense.
Greenwald seems to presume that it is the right or the job of a U.S. president to 'permit'
pipelines between two foreign country? That is of course completely false. The U.S. has no
right, duty or whatever to interfere in regular businesses between foreign partners. Such
interference is in fact illegal under international law. Biden, as well as Trump, should be
criticized for even thinking about 'permitting' it.
On to Greenwald's main point:
When it came to actual vital Russian interests" as opposed to the symbolic gestures hyped
by the liberal cable and op-ed page circus" Trump and his administration were confronting
and undermining the Kremlin in ways Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama, had, to his credit,
steadfastly refused to do.
Indeed, the foreign policy trait relentlessly attributed to Trump in support of the
media's Cold War conspiracy theory" namely, an aversion to confronting Putin" was, in
reality, an overarching and explicit belief of President Obama's foreign policy, not
President Trump's.
Obama waged a massive undercover war to overthrow the Syrian government, an old Russian
ally. He arranged a fascist coup in the Ukraine and he sent the anti-Russian academic Michael
McFaul as ambassador to Russia where McFaul immediately started to prepare a color revolution
against President Putin. It was the Obama administration which launched the 'Russiagate'
campaign against Trump which further infested U.S. policies with anti-Russian sentiment.
Seen from the Russian side Obama certainly showed absolutely no 'aversion to confronting
Putin'.
While Trump ripped up arms treaties with Russia and gave a few useless weapons to the
Ukraine, making sure they would not reach the front lines, he otherwise took, thankfully, few
other damaging steps.
Well, the fact that the pipeline has not been finished for years, despite being near
completion, tells us that it's not actually true that the "pipeline would have been finished
with or without US sanctions." Certainly, it seems that Trump's pressure did work to severely
slow down if not completely stop the completion of the project and presumably Biden could
have continued that pressure. Btw, didn't the front-running Green party head come out against
the pipeline, showing that there's not unanimous support in Germany for its completion?
But more importantly, Greenwald's main point is that Trump's actions had nothing to do
with the Russian Puppet narrative against him. That both Biden and previously Obama were less
"anti-Russian" in practice and yet were thought to be "tough" on Russia, while Trump
(providing lethal arms to Ukraine and stopping NS2) was a "puppet" ... narrative building by
the Deep State. Greenwald's larger point is in fact accurate.
I think Greenwald was thrown off by what seems a sudden reversal and positive step by
Biden administration.
Personally I think Biden Administration was stunned at almost having instigated WW3 within
100 days of taking office. They looked fairly like amateur idiots even to the unwashed such
as myself. Then they realized that it would be difficult and given their evident ineptness
they chose the well proven political tactic of taking the loss and making it a win. Voila
they are genious - why didnt Trump think of that?
We in the US must accept that our government is craven incompetents and have to hope that
they might accidentally do something good by virtue of being so incompetent.
Greenwald makes an error but it is understandable. NS2 pipeline wont deliver enough gas to
truly make a significant difference to Germany. Where it makes a difference is to Ukraine,
which will struggle to steal as much gas from Russia as it has in the past. Gas transit rates
will fall, and if Ukraine doesnt like it RF will still be able to supply Germany without
Ukraine stealing gas which was meant for Germany.
But who will make good any shortfall in Ukraine's budget?
The early closure of the Netherlands Groningen natural gas field, due to land subsidence,
was a big hit to European energy security - especially with the move from coal/nuclear to
natural gas. B is very right in stating that Europe desperately needs Russian gas to fill a
yawning future hole between supply and demand. Russia is also developing their Arctic gas
reserves, which can be provided as LNG to Europe (as well as Asia). Very bad for the
Ukrainians, but they (or the US and the Nazis) picked their bed and can deal with the
consequences.
The Russians opened the Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China, and have agreements to
start development on additional pipelines. China is rapidly expanding natural gas usage so no
demand problem there.
Seems like the Biden administration took their "hardass" shot in the past months and it
blew up in their face. Now they have to take a step back and play a bit better with their
so-called allies. Probably won't last long, the US elite have extreme learning difficulties
when it comes to the reality of their decline from the Unipolar moment.
This is somewhat OT to the subject, but it's clear to me a greater understanding of the
Russian POV is needed. Although the transcript is currently incomplete, this meeting of the Russian
Pobeda (Victory) Organising Committee provides an excellent insight into the Russian
mind, and IMO this excerpt says a great deal:
"Regrettably, the ranks of the great generation of victors are thinning out. But this is
only increasing our responsibility for preserving their legacy, especially now that we are
witnessing increasingly frequent attempts to slander and distort history and to revise the
role played by the Red Army in the routing of Nazism and the liberation of European nations
from the Nazi plague.
"We understand the reasons for this, and attempts to hamper the development of this
country, regardless of its name, be it the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union or Russia, were
made in different times and historical epochs and under different political systems. These
approaches and principles remain the same. There is one principle or rather, one reason
for containing Russia: the stronger and more independent Russia becomes, the more
consistently it defends its national interests, the greater the striving of foreign forces to
weaken it, to discredit the values uniting our society and sometimes to slander and distort
what people hold dear, the things that are instilled in the younger generations of Russians
and which help them acquire a strong character and their own opinions .
"This is why all kinds of Russophobic individuals and unscrupulous politicians are trying
to attack Russian history, to promote the ideas of revising the results of World War II and
to exonerate Nazi criminals." [My Emphasis]
"Very soon, we will be celebrating 20 years of our core bilateral document, the Treaty of
Good-Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation. Since the signing of this treaty, Russia
and China have achieved great success in strengthening our multidimensional cooperation and
mutual trust across all areas without exception: politics, international affairs, trade and
the economy, cultural and humanitarian exchanges. It can be said that Russia-China relations
have reached their highest level in history."
And those relations will certainly reach much greater heights regardless the nature of
Russian-EU relations.
I'm puzzled by b's arithmetic on the gas flow rates
Apart from Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, there are also old Soviet pipelines that go
through Belarus and Ukraine, as well as the recently completed Turk Stream, part of which is
used to export gas to Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia (and soon Hungary, Bosnia and
Austria).
@11
My two cents on that is that the old surface Power-structure of Germany has been crumbling
rapidly for around the last decade. Merkel has left the christian conservative party in
shambles and there's no one with enough gravitas around to fill the giant sized shoes she's
left vacant, same thing with the social democrats who've been in a freefall from 35% to now
barely 15% for the last 15 years. Environmentalism coated Neoliberalism seems to be the maxim
of the hour in the leftists and centrists spheres, and almost everyone, but foremost the
Green Party, is trying to ride that wave to the finish line. Don't expect peoples first
policies, climate change will dominate the election, and we'll likely be wrapped up in more
deindustrialization coupled with an ever more chaotic energy policy. If anything the average
persons cost of living in terms of rent, energy, food and transportation will continue to
rise, while jobs in traditional industry sectors will continue to fall off. I haven't heard a
coherent plan on how the German economy is supposed to work like 10 years from now, and there
likely is none, all I expect is more taxes and the possibility of plundering social security
trust funds to address whatever critical infrastructure issue will face us next.
@14
Green-Party was about to oust the Conservatives in a major federal state election. People got
really riled up by nuclear, especially since there already was an ongoing controversy around
long term waste storage. It was one of Merkels signature opportunistic moves that aimed to
size the moment in absence of long term planing. It didn't work btw, Greens still ousted
them, but once you make a big move like that there's not going back without losing face, but
it does seem like exiting nuclear proved to be a popular strategy with the electorate in the
long run. I'm sure that are more complex/intricate theories around, but I can't speak on
that
Thanks b. The Empire of the Deranged is in a steady downward slide. By its own hand,
through financial engineering (stock buy back schemes fueled by bailout's of bankrupt
corporations plus derivatives etc. etc.) Add to this, restrictions on the use of swift. The
US devalues its own currency. Other countries are not so interested in purchasing US debt to
offset rising US deficit. Include all of that with our foreign policymaking which angers even
our allies like Germany, as you point out with NS2. The Leaders think they can snap their
fingers and bring the world to heel. That ship sailed a long time ago. The multi-polar world
is a reality that the paper tiger struggles with. To Glen Greenwald's Brazil, US influence
evaporates should Lula get elected as the next President. The tiger is toothless Glen, no
need to give it more authority than it has.
With the US pressuring Germany to end NS-2 in favor of importing much more expensive
fracked US gas, we see that the US thinks there is nothing wrong with asking it's vassal
states to cut their own throats (forego steps to retain their economic competitiveness) to
please their patron. The idiocy of Cold War 2 is costing US allies a lot and seems inimical
to the very idea of US allies even regarding their own national interests. One would hope
this is leading to either a re-evaluation of these alliances or a revolt of the satraps.
thanks b... Agree that "the U.S. has no right, duty or whatever to interfere in regular
businesses between foreign partners." Every journalists needs to be making this key point.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT
Vladimir Putin in his Munich (2007) speech announced Russia's pivot away from the Dollar
Empire and unwillingness to be a vassal. The Dollar Empire challenged Russia through Georgia
in 2008. Obama & Clinton fooled Russia through their reset announcement and got a go
ahead to attack Libya. The relationship was calm in 2012. Obama fooled Medvedev by saying,
"he will have "more flexibility" to deal with contentious issues," after reelection, in
early 2012. However, Vladimir Putin was back in 2013 and the Dollar Empire realized it has
been outplayed. It moved aggressively after the two outside Russian military bases in Syria
and Ukraine. Russia captured Crimea in 2014, and Putin declared Russia's willingness to go to
war in Syria (2015). The Imperial Council
of the United States was surprised by Russia's move into Syria and wasn't ready for a
war. In the meantime, China was developing strong. Here comes Trump in 2017. It seems like
the Imperial Council and its Intelligence Community came with a new ploy to associate Trump
with Russia, so they can bully China and bend it over on trade. China stood up to Empire's
challenge and developed its independence plan! In the meantime Trump increased sanctions on
Russia using the Congress as a pretext while strengthening Ukraine. The sanctions on the Nord
Stream 2 brought halt to work in December 2019. Did Trump FOOL Putin/Russia by stating, "he
will have "more flexibility" to deal with contentious issues," after reelection? The
reasoning behind this question is that Russia didn't start work on the pipeline until the
election was over in December 2020. One year wait to start work on the pipeline.
MISSING DIMENSIONS
Why isn't Greenwald speaking against the dollar monetary imperialism and enslavement? Very
rarely one come across a journalist that shines light on reality and exposes truth. It seems
like Empire's MSM and journalists are making a big deal of this minuscule Nord Stream 2
sanction waiving. Why? It is just propaganda and perception management to create distrust in
the China-Russia relationship? No one is mentioning Russia's redlines or its ability to
retaliate to additional sanctions. Andrei Martyanow gets it right!
Please analyze every geopolitical
development from the MONETARY lens too. Russia as part of its De-Dollarization plan is
offering energy deals in national currencies to win nations in Eurasia, including Japan. In
which currency is the U$A offering its LNG ? US$? Also, it seems like Russia's transit
payments to Ukraine are in the US$. In addition to providing an alternate route, the Nord
Stream 2 increases Russia's leverage with Ukraine. Imagine if those transit payments were in
Rubles to Ukraine, Russia's leverage will be immense.
China, Russia, Germany, Japan... (Non-$ Bloc) are standing up to dollar's monetary
imperialism, and seeking more trade in their respective national currencies. The EU and
Germany will pay for its energy in Euros and reduce threats to their economies. Why don't
journalists address the monetary or currency dimensions?
RUSSIAN SUCCESSES?
Successfully completing the Nord Stream 2 and supplying gas to Europe in Euros will be a huge
victory for Russia and Germany. It has yet to implement its agreements (Minsk, Astana,
JCPOA...). All its conflicts are frozen and unresolved. Please share agreements that Russia
has successfully delivered on in the 21st Century, particularly when the Dollar Empire is
involved. Will the Empire surprise Russia by attacking on multiple fronts?
To say that there is a shift in US geopolitical policies, is an understatement. In short,
IMO, Biden is going back to Obama's plan and his pivot to Asia. Therefore, it is China,
China, China. Nothing else matters that much right now.
1. Nordstream 2 settled"¦..check
2. Germany and Europeans happy"¦..check
3. Settling ME problems with going back to JCPOA, promoting KSA and Iran peace, pulling out
of Afghanistan (not ME)"¦..check
4. Putting Israel in its place (via a shift in media coverage and taking away support slowly
and congress expressions of outrage) "¦..check
5. Abstention form UN resolution punishing Israel"¦"¦.coming up
6. Taking Europeans to the South East China confrontation"¦..coming up
7. Prying away Iran and Russia away from China"¦"¦wishful thinking,
hopefully.
8. Ousting Netanyahoo"¦"¦coming up
Although, Biden is a zionist, Netanyahu and his antics are not convenient at this time and
Israel takes a back seat to grand chessboard strategy.
Greenwald's and b's commentaries are a bit of a sideshow, in my opinion. Best concentrate
on the outcome and the bigger picture instead of this he said she said.
What happened this year is that the winter was cold, gas storage in Europe was nearly
depleted, and Europe needed huge amounts of russian gas.
The other problem is that LNG is more expensive in Asia, causing LNG producers and
shippers to prefer the asian market.
There are many more issues as well - such as the hit on US producers by the Covid crisis,
Germany moving the carbon goal posts from 2050 to 2045, green energy problems this winter in
Germany, explosions on pipelines in Ukraine, and so on.
It is also true that Russia is readying Power of Siberia 2 and 3 pipelines to China, as
well as actively developing its own LNG exports.
The disputed claim by Greenwald is that, "Nord Stream 2... is designed to double Russian
sales capacity to an EU addicted to cheap Russian natural gas, producing massive revenue for
the Russian economy and giving Moscow greater leverage when dealing with its European
neighbors." This is very different from the statement that NS2 together with NS1 is twice the
capacity of NS1 on its own.
There are several, to my mind, wrongful assumptions in Greenwald's claim.
The first, that the EU wants to increase its purchases of Russian gas, but is prevented
from doing so solely due to the lack of infrastructure which, presumably, is operating at
full capacity. From this assumption, it then follows that Russia is expecting massive
revenues from an increase in transit capacity, since customers are already standing by.
Finally, as a result of supplying significantly more gas to Europe and earning substantially
more money from it, Moscow can be expected to take advantage of its position as an energy
supplier to pressure Europe over political matters.
While it's true that European gas-needs are growing, it's more of a long-term projected
development and not some energy crisis straining the current configuration. A more topical
and urgent crisis is the situation in Ukraine and the state of disrepair of the gas transit
infrastructure in that country, which not long ago accounted for 80% of Russian gas supplied
to Europe. IIRC, official estimates gave these pipelines a few short years before becoming
unusable without major repair efforts -- something like 5 years -- and coupled with the state
of the country itself, it's not impossible that the pipelines outlive the state.
If we, for the sake of argument, assume that Ukraine and/or the gas infrastructure on that
territory ceases to function tomorrow, halting all gas transits to Europe in the blink of an
eye, which isn't as far-fetched as you might think, the result would be an energy crisis.
Already, this crisis would not be of catastrophic proportions as it would have been a mere
decade ago, due to alternative transit routes established to lessen reliance on Ukrainian
pipelines. NS2 is designed to eliminate reliance on Ukrainian pipelines completely, if one
disregards various political commitments made by Russia on Europe's behalf to retain part of
its gas export through Ukraine, which I'm sure would fall to the wayside the moment European
capitals started going dark. Of course, cutting off transit states also has the added benefit
of making the gas cheaper and thus the contract becomes more lucrative, but that's more of a
bonus.
If we, for the sake of argument, assume that all the pipelines to Europe are working at
full capacity, and Europe desperately needs more gas -- say, 25 years from now when no new
green alternatives have presented themselves and no new pipelines have been built because the
war of sanctions continues -- there's always LNG, which Russia can supply at a competitive
price, and the port infrastructure for that is already available, provided the EU is willing
to resolve its energy problems collectively.
From this it follows that, no, Russia isn't expecting massive revenues to come flooding in
at the completion of NS2. They're presumably expecting massive revenues from new energy
projects in Asia, but they're at worst expecting to retain the current revenue in the
European market, and at best see it grow in connection with European economy. Certainly, they
wouldn't like to lose the European market, especially due to unpredictable incidents abroad
that are outside of their control, but Europe is arguably much more vulnerable and has more
to lose from such an eventuality.
Lastly, since we are no longer expecting an immediate increase in European reliance on
Russian energy following NS2, how does it translate to Russian leverage over European
politics? Russia is already Europe's main supplier of, not only gas, but crude oil which
accounts for 2/3 of Europe's energy supply (gas is 24%). If Russia wants to leverage its
position as the main energy supplier to Europe, it does not need NS2 to do so, and shutting
down NS2 will not prevent it from doing so.
It's Izvestia and it was in Russian, that's why I'm not able to recover it. It was also
machine translated, so I may well have gotten the wrong message.
But yeah, from what I understood, the spirit of the article was that it was just a matter
of time before Russia start to deliver LNG to Western and Northern Europe at much more
competitive prices than the American LNG, through the Arctic route (investment in
icebreakers, gas pipelines, oil pipelines, nuclear reactors etc. etc.).
"... A draft report published online by the assembly's Committee on Foreign Affairs caused consternation in Russian media on Monday, after statements came to light that argued the bloc "should establish with the US a transatlantic alliance to defend democracy globally" and "deter Russia" from supposed aggression in Eastern Europe. ..."
A draft report published
online by the assembly's Committee on Foreign Affairs caused consternation in Russian media on Monday, after statements came
to light that argued the bloc "should establish with the US a transatlantic alliance to defend democracy globally" and "deter
Russia" from supposed aggression in Eastern Europe.
As part of its "vision" for future ties with Moscow, the paper concludes that the EU should put forward a number of incentives
designed to persuade Russians that a turn to the West would be beneficial, including visa liberalization and "free trade investment."
[...]
At the same time, the committee puts forward a number of extreme steps that it says the bloc should take. It insists that
Brussels "must be prepared not to recognize the parliament of Russia and to ask for Russia's suspension from international
organizations with parliamentary assemblies if the 2021 parliamentary elections in Russia are recognized as fraudulent."
The success or failure of this operation will depend entirely on the Russian people. Will it fall for the Western European
honey trap once again?
After Putin is gone, bets are off. Also, the EU continues to suffer from refugee waves from Syria and Libya, and its economy
continues to deteriorate (recession confirmed for Q1 2021). The whole system is so exhausted that they don't talk about even of
the absorption of Moldova anymore (the Moldovan president had to bring that up to the Kremlin; good they remembered them).
This looks like Biden had some surge of sanity, but it's not: I read an article on Izvestia some days ago and it seems Russia
won the war for the Arctic and has expelled the USA from that sea. That, combined with the fact that Russia has been ramping up
investment on the sector, results in the fact that, soon enough, Russia will also have the infrastructure to deliver cheaper LNG
by ship to Europe, too.
That means the USA has given up on the NordStream II in order to hurt the Russian LNG investments. Yes, people, that's the
insanity of the situation: the USG is completely lost. It still has its ace in the hole, though: the Green Party is set to win
the next German general elections, and they're rabid Atlanticists. Like, this would cost Germany dearly and they wouldn't last
two years in government, but at least Russian gas to Europe through a non-Ukrainian route would be stopped.
Speaking of the Ukraine, this whole situation makes us reflect: it is patent at this point in time that the EU is a subsidiary
of NATO - it expands eastwards after those countries become NATO members. They're the "socioeconomic" version of NATO. This has
created a huge problem for the EU, though, because the Ukraine is a massive financial black hole to the American economy (through
the IMF) and the USA is pressuring the EU to make it a member quick, so that this black hole goes to European (i.e. German) hands.
The thing is Germany obviously doesn't want that, because it needs the Euro to keep at where it is or stronger (you can only enter
the EU by entering the EZ nowadays). The Ukraine is salivating to become an EZ member - that's the whole point of the Maidan coup
in the first place - so Ukraine entering the EU without entering the EZ is out of the table. The EU must've told the USA that
no, the Ukraine must first become a NATO member, then they'll make it an EZ-EU member. The Ukraine is the proverbial hot potato.
All of that coupled with the hard economic fact that, without the Russian gas transit exclusivity, you can't leverage Ukraine's
debt, because, after Maidan, all of the public goods and infrastructure were privatized to American capitalists. That means we
have the absurd situation where Germany has to give up cheaper gas for itself (which would be essential for its economic recovery)
in order to make the Ukraine happy so that it enters the EU, so that it becomes a financial black hole... to the German economy!
Germany has to pay the Ukraine for the privilege of having to pay it even more, for eternity.
The price of nation-building has become more and more expensive to the capitalist world. Turns out those Third World shitholes
have learned something after all those decades.
Taiwan is also suffering from a significant brain drain to the Mainland. They're trying to solve the problem by demonizing
those people by calling them "traitors".
Probably it was not a false flag. First of all the state of IT security at Colonial Pipeline
was so dismal that it was strange that this did not happened before. And there might be
some truth that they try to exploit this hack to thier advantage as maintenance of the
pipeline is also is dismal shape.
Notable quotes:
"... "As for the money-nobody really knows where it really went." If you are right about the perpetrators, my guess would be that it went into the black-ops fund, two birds one stone. ..."
"... I have become so used to false flags, I am going to be shocked when a real intrusion happens! ..."
"... an in depth article researching solarwinds hack - looks like it was Israel, not a great leap to see that colonial was a false flag https://unlimitedhangout.com/2021/01/investigative-reports/another-mega-group-spy-scandal-samanage-sabotage-and-the-solarwinds-hack/ ..."
"... Regarding the ownership of Colonial Pipeline: 'IFM Investors, which is owned by 27 Australian union- and employer-backed industry superannuation funds, owns a 16 per cent stake in Colonial Pipeline, which the infrastructure manager bought in 2007 for $US651 million.' ..."
"... 'The privately held Colonial Pipeline is valued at about $US8 billion, based upon the most recent sale of a 10 per cent stake to a unit of Royal Dutch Shell in 2019.' ..."
The Colonial Pipeline Co.,ransomware attack was a false flag. They wanted to blame Russian
hackers so they could derail Nordstream II
It is common knowledge that the only real hackers that are able of such sabotage is CIA
and Israeli. It's the same attack types they do to Iranian infrastructure on a regular
basis.
The Russians are not that stupid to do something they know will be blamed on them and is
of no political use to them. And could derail Nordstream2.
As for the money-nobody really knows where it really went. CEO is ultra corrupt. They
never ever invested in their infrastructure so when it went down they came up with a
profitable excuse. Just look at their financials/balance sheet over the years. No real
investment in updating and maintaining infrastructure. Great false flag. Corruption and
profiteering.
"As for the money-nobody really knows where it really went." If you are right
about the perpetrators, my guess would be that it went into the black-ops fund, two birds one
stone.
I'm not familiar with your handle - hello. IMO, it would be counterproductive for Russia
to initiate such a hack. What really affects and debilitates US oil and gas interests is low
prices, both at the pump and on the stock exchange. The hack helped jack up prices (which
were already being jacked-up despite demand still lagging behind supply) which only HELPS
those energy interests. It has long been known, the math isn't complicated, what level crude
must trade at for US domestic oil & gas operations to be profitable. Remember that just
as the pandemic was emerging Russia and Saudi Arabia once again sent the global crude market
into the depths of despair.
I do agree the hack can be interpreted in light of the desperation of US energy interests
to try to kill NS2. I have not yet read the recent articles discussing Biden's recent moves
in that regard. If these moves are a recognition that US LNG to Europe (and elsewhere) are
diametrically opposed to climate responsibility, I'd welcome those moves. As is usually the
case though, environmental responsibility is probably the least likely reason.
Regarding the ownership of Colonial Pipeline: 'IFM Investors, which is owned by 27
Australian union- and employer-backed industry superannuation funds, owns a 16 per cent stake
in Colonial Pipeline, which the infrastructure manager bought in 2007 for $US651
million.'
also
'The privately held Colonial Pipeline is valued at about $US8 billion, based upon the
most recent sale of a 10 per cent stake to a unit of Royal Dutch Shell in 2019.'
-The Greens, if they "win" will not win with a majority. That means they will need
coalition partners. Neither the CDU or the SPD is going to go along with their plan to stop
NS2. The Greens, in order to form a govt. will cave in on NS2 and probably other things.
-The Ukies are still fleeing the country to avoid going to the front. The Ukie brass says
as much. These are not soldiers. They are farm kids. At the 1st sign of serious war, they
will all head for the russians with hands in the air.
-V. Putin handled the western MSM narrative quite well, imo, when he said "Those behind
provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done
in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time." It can't be clearer than that.
And that tells me that the ussa is in the crosshairs. This may be the 1st time in history
that the oceans will offer no protection for the warmongers that have been at war for 222
years of 237 years of their existence
The comedian is still flaying about and now trying to play the SWIFT card (last week it
was nuclear weapons, before that it was...). Which, of course, the west will not honor
because it would cripple the west as much or more than RU. I would imagine he needs to change
his undershorts on an hourly basis these days. He is literally caught between a rock and a
hard spot. No more support from DE, FR, US, NATO, TR except good wishes. And demands from his
brain-dead Banderites are only growing more shrill. What's a poor comic to do?
The west is basically done with him and with the show of force by the russians they are
more done with him than before. For his sake, i hope his khazarian passport app has been
approved.
Another failed state compliments of the khazarians in DC. And the beat goes on.
Eighthman @10 North Stream 2 will be the last mayor cooperation between Russia and Europe
for the next 10, 20 years. If you had to choose where to put your money, would you put it in
a gas pipeline to China (Power of Siberia) or a gas pipeline to Europe (North Stream2)?
Putin will be the last Russian president who looked west, to Europe; the next president
will look east, to Asia. It's where the money is.
I know how the German system works. Yet I am not seeing the Greens win or compose the next
government if they threaten to cancel NS2. The NS2 is not about the CDU/CSU but about the
German elite interest. No way they are going to give green light to the Greens. Speaking of
someone which city is on the border.
There is ONE little thing Mike Whitney missed, or maybe it developed as/after he wrote
this, the State Department told Germany last week there would be no further sanctions on
Germany or her companies as regards Nordstream II. I believe also that a four-Euro-country
coalition told the U.S. a couple of weeks ago that this was for Germany's energy security,
Nordstream that is and they sounded like they're serious about any further American
interference in the matter.
On the subject of LNG, is it even possible to transport enough LNG from the United States
to Germany in quantity equal to the flow of Nordstream II? That pipe they're laying looks of
sufficient diameter to walk through standing up, it's going to pass a LOT of gas. I don't
know what the flow rates and pressures are, but I know one thing; Boston has a large LNG
terminal and it's a dangerous setup. Pipelines seem to me a safer enterprise.
-The Ziocorporate globalist NATO/EU terrorists: We supported Chechen terrorist separatists
and KLA organ-harvesting Jihadis, dismembered Yugoslavia and bombed Serbia, used your Russian
airspace that you opened for us to invade Afghanistan after the 9/11 Zioterrorist
self-attacks, instigated Georgia into war with Russia, used your UNSC vote to destroy Libya
with ISIS, turned EUkraine into a NATO satellite complete with an bloody massacre in Odessa
and yet another massmurderous war on Russia's border and blamed and sanctioned you for it,
shot down your planes in Syria; and we're gonna be taking Belarus the moment Lukashenko
blinks. But we're really good business partners, and need some gas, you know...
To my American readers I'd say that the US is very strong and the people of the US can
have a wonderful life even without world hegemony, in fact, hegemony is not in their
interests at all. What they should seek is a strong nationalist policy that cares for
the American people and avoids wasteful foreign wars.
The problem here, is that the American people are crushed and powerless, and in the grip
of something morphing into a Neo-Bolshevik style dictatorship. Similarly to the mid 1930's
this dictatorship wants world power – and from this perspective Ukraine looks more like
Spain 1936 (the first act of a much bigger show).
Biden's recent phone call to Putin suggests that the administration has decided not to
launch a war after all. The unconfirmed report of two US ships turning away from the Black
Sea fits this assessment. However, we cannot be sure about this since the Kremlin refused
to agree to Biden's offer for a meeting. The Kremlin's response was a frosty "We shall
study the proposal". Russians feel that the summit proposal might be a trick aimed at
buying time to strengthen their position.
Except that the US ordered two British warships to go there instead.
TASS, April 18. Two British warships will sail for the Black Sea in May. According to
The Sunday Times, a source in the Royal Navy indicated that this gesture is intended to
show solidarity with Ukraine and NATO in the region against the background of the situation
at the Russian-Ukrainian border.
According to the newspaper, one Type 45 destroyer armed with anti-aircraft missiles and
an anti-submarine Type 23 frigate will peel off from the Royal Navy's carrier task group in
the Mediterranean and sail through the Bosphorus into the Black Sea.
It is reported that the decision was made in order to support Ukraine after the US
cancelled its plans of sending two destroyers to the Black Sea in order to avoid further
escalation in the region and tensions with Russia. It is noted that in case of a threat on
the part of Russia, the UK is ready to send other military equipment to the region.
I would guess that the US Trotskyites plan to push the Ukrainians into a war and then
launch a massive international media barrage, "heroic Ukrainian patriots", "Russian
atrocities", "killer Putin" etc. sufficient to finish with Nord Stream 2 and scare France and
Germany back into the US fold.
If this is right, then they're not expecting Russia to retake the whole of the Ukraine,
and they're not planning to start WW3.
However, Russia's lowest risk strategy would probably still be to only defend their
existing positions making it difficult to claim a "Russian invasion". They've probably
already lost Nord Stream (which is really a German loss – and the Germans know what the
ZioGlob are doing here). This buys time, and given that the US is already on a fast downward
slope, lets them keep sliding.
@Anonymous
point the finger and shriek about 'Russian aggression' in order to pressure the Germans into
cancelling Nordstream 2 and any other Russian supplied energy.
Of course if the Europeans weren't run by (((banker))) stooges and if they had any balls
between them they would force the US to call the whole thing off and pressure the Ukrainian
fascists to honour the Minsk 2 agreement. Sadly we are just going to have to prepare for the
worst and hope it doesn't go nuclear.
I see my own government (I am from the UK) has decided to send some sacrificial ships to
the Black sea (the US apparently doesn't want to risk theirs) What else can we expect when
2/3 of our parliament are in 'Friends of Israel' groups?
The Ukrainians who would the hardest to pacify are in the Ukie Diaspora in US, Canada and
Western Europe. These folks still maintain a WW II mentality, act as if the Holodomor (which
was terrible) only happened the other day and have a fair number of Banderists among their
number. They do not wish to acknowledge that the Holodomor was orchestrated by the same Jews
who launched the Bolshevik Revolution and killed millions of Orthodox Russians more than a
decade beforehand. The ideal would be for Ukraine to maintain it territorial integrity minus
perhaps the Donbas and go forward with a positive relationship with Russia.
@Anonymous
refugees, including tens of thousands of Russian passport holders, trek into Russia, creating
a nightmare for Putin. Ukranazistan is enormously emboldened, joins NATO de facto if not yet
de jure, Russia is tremendously weakened, loses all allies and prospective allies. Win for
Amerikastan.
Scenario 2: Putin intervenes.
Result: Amerikastan leaves the Ukranazis high and dry, but shrieks about Evil Russian
Invasion; NordStream II and all other economic connections with Europe are severed.
Amerikastan immensely reasserts its control over Europe, sells its LNG to Germany at much
inflated prices, and its useless weapons to everyone to "defend against Russia". Hands Russia
the unenviable burden of the ruin of Ukranazistan, which Amerikastan has looted for 7 years
till there is nothing left. Win for Amerikastan.
@Fiendly
Neighbourhood Terrorist ttlement of Disputes". Hopefully it will direct the attention of
the Security Council or the General Assembly to realize the Russian Federation and permanent
member of the UNSC, see no other path to peace if the representatives of the UN fail to make
a just and fair decision on this particular matter that has gone on for far too long.
This in itself does not necessarily mean the armies of Russia will pour over Ukraine's
western border and over their northern border from Belarus. But the declaration of defensive
war puts US-NATO in a Hobson's choice predicament and that is to choose peace. If they choose
to cross the Rubicon then the necessity of defense war as theoretically stated will happen to
preserve the sovereignty of Mother Russia.
Less than 11% of ukrainians are Catholic -- less than 1% "Latin Rite" and 10% Uniate
Catholic -- and they are concentrated overwhelmingly in the oblasty bordering Poland and
Slovakia etc. in the west. Catholicism does not exist in the Donbass region and has almost
zero presence or influence in the rest of the Ukraine excluding the far west.
Russian and Ukrainian are even more similar than you make out, albeit not nearly-identical
like Russian and Belarussian.
In any event, many Ukrainians consider BOTH Russian and ukrainian to be their native
languages.
Moreover, a large minority of people, especially around Kiev, use the Russian-Ukrainian
mix called Surzhyk.
If the MIC/Banksters like the brinkmanship games so much, it would be interesting to see
Russian nuclear submarines emerging near Patagonia (Jewish "retreat") and Cuba. A piece of
leaked information about the City of London being on a crosshair of Kinzhal will be a bonus.
Add to that the publication of a detailed map of underground luxury bunkers for the
"deciders;" that would be super nice.
The cannibals – the "globally-oriented elites" – need to feel the flaming spear
directed towards each of them (and their progeny) personally. The confrontation has indeed
become personal: the ZUSA's "elites" against humankind.
@Miro23
re it fit best how would that be a bad thing?
Some to Russia, some to Poland, some to a rump State.
I would love to see Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu cook up a feast for Bidet Joe and Camel Toe tbat
would see them humiliated. Bidet is a fraud and anything that makes him and his little goblin
Blinkenfeld look like idiots is great.
We can only hope!
P.S. It must really suck to be a Ukrainian. Here we are in the 21st century and these guys
can't get out from being stuck in the mud. The young have to leave for Poland to get jobs.
And for what reason, so American Jews can get their Hate On for the Czar?! All the
Greenblatts need war crime charges. Convict and execute the next morning. All legal. Force is
all these vermin understand.
@Anonymous
oke Putin into overreacting, thus, proving that Russia poses a threat to all of Europe. The
only way Washington can persuade its EU allies that they should not engage in critical
business transactions (like Nordstream) with Moscow, is if they can prove that Russia is an
"external threat" to their collective security.
Shamir unfortunately became fixated on Whitney's use of the word "overreact" (though I agree
it's not the right word) and mostly failed to address the substance of the question and its
underlying premise.
And, as a postscript, I agree with animalogic. Your kindergarten language is embarrassing. I
mean, if you're going to insult Escobar et al., at least use adult insults.
In the unlikely event that Ukraine does try to take back the Donbas by force, Shakespeare
has already devised the appropriate stage direction for the Zelensky government:
"Get your hands off my country," Zimerman told the stunned crowd in a denunciation of US
plans to install a missile defence shield on Polish soil. Some people cheered, others yelled
at him to shut up and keep playing. A few dozen walked out, some of them shouting
obscenities.
I've played hundreds of Russians at chess, and they prefer what chess players call "quiet
moves." (Unlike US players, who are more impetuous). Same for Putin; quiet moves. But if
provoked, he will finish the job. (Adm Spruance, after Pearl Harbor: By not attacking the tank
farms, sub base, and machine shops, they had not "finished the job.
The "western" Ukraine you cite may have been culturally Ukrainian/Russian/eastern Slavic,
several hundred years ago. But as they were under Polish and later Austro-Hungarian
overlordship for many generations, they became westernized–culturally deracinated. They
are Galicians, NOT Ukrainians.
If Ukraine retains some level of political independence, they need to divorce these
culturally undigestible Uniates and their fascistic leadership. Currently that group poses a
toxicity to the body-politick of Ukraine, however else you may wish to define Kievan Rus.
@Bombercommand
> In some ways your take is apropos, particularly regarding potential Russian overextending.
You do place a lot of reliance on "International Law". With little incidents like Trump's
overturning of the uranium-processing accords with Iran, plus numerous other violations by the
U$/British consortium working as the intel and military enforcement arms for the Bank$ter
Cabal; international law has been constantly and consistently violated.
Geopolitically speaking, in terms of realistic "real politick", as per Bismark, no national
regime regards such nice-sounding accords as valid and inviolable. At some unknown future time,
genuine International Law may become a reality. At present, it is primarily a smiley-faced
mask.
A bear has never been a "Russian totem animal". Eagles, falcons, wolves – but never
bears. "Russian bear" is a product of the British russophobic propaganda of the Crimean war of
the 19 century.
The ukies are not Russians. Russian society looks forward demolition of the ukronazi
statehood, but without any form of integration of the Northern Somalia into our country. A few
million insurgent anarchists on top of all our problems would finish us.
The fanatics who actually live in Ukraine can be easily traced and kept under control. Their
funding would be cut off. They are a tiny portion of the population.
In the last elections that were won by Zelensky, the parties that wanted peace with Russia
represented over 95% of the population. Zelensky deceived everyone by continuing exactly the
same policies of Poroshenko. In fact, he was worse as he recently shut down all opposition TV
stations.
1n 2019, the only area in favour of continuing the war was brick-red on this map. Today, due
to the collapsing economy and the lockdowns, there are even fewer people in favour of war. The
Russians would be welcomed almost everywhere.
Fraud Bidet and little goblin Blinkenfeld; amusing but true nevertheless.
And I couldn't agree more when it comes to what you say about Ukraine, i.e. the borderland.
According to my sister who lives in Poland, Ukraincy (in Polish "those from bordeland) are
everyplace.
I would add that the western part of Ukarine "released" to join Poland would just allow the
evil empire to occupy that much land even closer to Russia. I don't see that as desirable.
Perhaps that western
extremity is something that needs to be made "independent" and demilitarized, perhaps with UN
peacekeepers present. At any rate, it needs to be rendered as no danger to Russia.
I have thought that by making Ukraine unavailable to the native neo-nazies there, they are
forced to relocate, and then become a major headache for their damaging and dangerous influence
in Europe.
Call it "blowback" . just another reason for the Europeans to defuse any American smart ideas
in their neighbourhood.
Canadian, British and hand-picked nazi battalions attempt to enter the no mans land, come
under mortar fire, go to ground and ask their artillery to save them.
Ukrainian/nato artillery battalions get counter-batteried into oblivion by ru artillery
regiments stationed in range.
Commanders at battalion level ask for a cease-fire, evacuate their troops back to the starting
line.
V.V. Putin, being merciful and kind, agrees.
Russia wins.
Fifth variant
Nothing happens except for a lot of hot air, troop movements and wails from Lugenpresse.
Status quo is maintained, zato keeps paying for the Ukrainian Project.
Russia wins.
They are already being treated as an outlaw state, and although Russians are inhumanly
patient, as I've seen for too long firsthand, this may figure into any looming brinkmanship
– as Lavrov's recent exasperated remark about the US being incapable of negotiation may
indicate.
True, There is zero need for the US to play Imperial Global Overlord because of the
natural resources on North America. It is only the greed and hubris of the Elites, who cannot
ever be satisfied.
The Anglo-Zionist Empire is very much an Evil Empire.
The danger here is that the US and the EU vassals push Russia into having nothing to lose.
I don't see how NS2 can be finished if Navalny dies. I hope Russia/Putin are working to
prevent this, if they can.
Now it looks more and more like a deliberate provocation. With Ukraine striving to get
attention and the USA striving to stop NS2.
Notable quotes:
"... The new 2020/2024 Russia/Ukraine transit gas contract is 'pump or pay' in that Russia pays $7B over 5 years regardless of whether gas is shipped or not. So it doesn't matter if the volume drops. I am actually surprised that it has given the still harsh weather in Europe. ..."
"... Meanwhile more figures are out on NS2 and it looks, given good weather, that both Fortuna and AC could finish pipe laying in both Danish and German waters by the end of May. So operational by the end as of year as stated by Gazprom looks on the cards, if not earlier. ..."
"... I suspect that the US and its NATO lapdogs are playing a distraction game. And I think that the Russian government knows this; but also realizes that the Western nations are cirrently in the grips of madcap rulers. Thus Russia is not taking any chance. One can bet that, as the whole empire crashes, it would like to bring down as much of humanity down with it as it can. The future of the earth is not bright. ..."
"... The Oil Shock only added to the 1973-75 recession. The Oil Shock was political in nature, and somewhat coordinated with the USG itself. The deeper causes of the early 70s economic crisis, and of the end of Bretton Woods, was declining profitability across all advanced capitalist states. See Robert Brenner's book, The Economics of Global Turbulence. ..."
"... Nuland et al may be trying to show themselves loyal agents of Israel, testing whether Russia can be distracted from Syria, or pretending to raise the cost of NS2. Russia and China could make balanced moves in the Caribbean to tame the bullies, but may see no advantage in counterthreats. ..."
"... This will be followed by an attack on the two Republics, dead bodies everywhere, un indisputable reason to convince the Germans with to scrap Nord-2. ..."
"... I am wondering if this might be an advantage for Russia and other countries in the mid to long term, that their companies are forced to master all the complex technologies involved as fast as possible? Maybe they will even become competitors to their western equivalents? ..."
First the Ukraine said it would use force to
recover the renegade Donbass region as well as Crimea. It then moved heavy troops towards the
contact lines. The ceasefire at the contact line was broken multiple times per day. Several
Ukrainian soldiers died while attempting to remove a minefield in preparation of an
attack.
It became clear that a war in Ukraine's east was
likely to soon braek out. A successful war would help Ukraine's president Zelensky with
the ever increasing domestic crises. A war would also give the U.S. more
influence in Europe . The U.S. and NATO promised "unwavering support for Ukraine's
sovereignty".
Russia gave several verbal warnings that any Ukrainian attack on the renegade provinces of
Luhansk and Donetsk or Crimea would cause a serious Russian intervention. There was never a
chance that the U.S. or NATO would intervene in such a war. But it was only after Russia
started to move some of its troops around that sanity set in. It dawned on the Ukrainian
leadership that the idea of waging war against a nuclear armed superpower was not a good
one.
Late yesterday it suddenly decided to file for peace (machine translation):
KIEV, April 9 - RIA Novosti. "Liberation" of Donbass by force will lead to mass deaths
of civilians and servicemen, and this is unacceptable for Kiev, said Commander-in-Chief of
the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak.
"Being devoted to universal human values and norms of international
humanitarian law, our state puts the lives of its citizens in the first place," the General
Staff's press center quoted him as saying.
According to Khomchak, the Ukrainian authorities consider the political and diplomatic
way to resolve the situation in Donbass a priority. At the same time, he added that the
Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready for an adequate response both to the escalation of the
conflict and to "the complication of the military-political and military-strategic
situation around the country."
MOSCOW, April 9 - RIA Novosti. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the
need for a new truce in Donbass after visiting the contact line.
The head of state wrote on Facebook that shooting at the front lines had become "a
dangerous routine." "After several months of observing a complete and general ceasefire, we
returned to the need to establish a truce," Zelensky said.
As the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak emphasized
earlier, the use of force to "liberate" Donbass is unacceptable for Kiev, as it is fraught
with casualties among the civilian population and military personnel. At the same time,
last week he said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will strengthen the grouping of troops
in the Donbass and in the Crimean direction - in response to the "build-up" of Russian
forces on the border with Ukraine.
It seems that order has come from Washington to stand down - at least for now. U.S.
reconnaissance flights near Russia's border continue . One should
therefore consider that the sudden call for a renewed ceasefire might be a ruse.
But if it is not why was all of this allowed to happen in the first place?
Posted by b on April 10, 2021 at 14:44 UTC |
Permalink
It would be so beneficial to Russia in so many ways to fix the Ukraine
problem once and for all, that America is now backpedalling fast and hoping the Russians do
not get their fix. They want this to continue to be a set of problems for Russia. Avoiding a
war would be great for all, but if the West thinks they can resume this contentious scenario,
they will find they are wrong. I am willing to bet that most common citizens of ukraine are
sick of all this vitriol and tension, crashing economy, and other hardships. Maybe the
majority will finally speak up and get their say.
The new 2020/2024 Russia/Ukraine transit gas contract is 'pump or pay' in that Russia
pays $7B over 5 years regardless of whether gas is shipped or not. So it doesn't matter if
the volume drops. I am actually surprised that it has given the still harsh weather in
Europe.
Meanwhile more figures are out on NS2 and it looks, given good weather, that both
Fortuna and AC could finish pipe laying in both Danish and German waters by the end of May.
So operational by the end as of year as stated by Gazprom looks on the cards, if not
earlier.
At the same time, last week he said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will strengthen
the grouping of troops in the Donbass and in the Crimean direction - in response to the
"build-up" of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.
If war is really unacceptable to Ukraine why aren't they pulling back their forces?
1) Because the "Russian aggression' propaganda must continue until Nord Stream 2 is
terminated.
2) Because the threat of a war with NATO-supported Ukraine must be sustained to deter
Russia in Idlib and elsewhere.
The only deterrent US ships provide is the type that Russia wants to avoid engaging the US
directly for fear of an eventual nuclear exchange. Otherwise, those ships provide no
challenge to their military capabilities.
I submit the ships are there to encourage Zelensky to take a risk thinking the US has his
back. But it appears even he isn't this dumb and this whole thing is going to blow over as I
predicted a week or two ago.
So, was it always about bluff, theater and optics? ... Or did they simply lose their will
to die young? I guess Zelensky is a bad-joke comedian after all. He gets the local nazis off
his neck (for a while) by being a bold bad-ass boy and passing ideological laws (far from
reality); and then goes listen to the frontline generals as they explain the suicidal meaning
of his comic bluster. Being an actor, it's all just a stage for a gig, it seems. So, now he
tells his pet nazi thugs that Ruslan Khomchak has their phone numbers. Perhaps now that
Phil-the-(UK)Greek has died the Nato biolabs will be working on the next 'Plan B'
reincarnation-virus pandemic mix. Sputnik-V 2.0 better be ready soon.
Maybe I missed it but there were elections in Ukraine last Sunday and
"The new Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of the Ukraine, elected on Sunday, will have an
overwhelming national mandate to negotiate peace terms to end the five-year civil war.
"Sluha Narodu ("Servant of the People"), the party of President Volodymyr Zelensky, having
won more than 43% of the votes countrywide, will now command majorities of both the
party-list and the single-constituency seats in the new parliament; 253 seats altogether out
of 422, or a "mono-coalition" as the party is calling the result, or as the hostile Ukrainian
media term it, "a landslide [which] has never occurred in the contemporary history of Ukraine
and it is more typical for post-Soviet Asian dictatorships..."
"...This beats earlier pollster predictions that Zelensky would be forced into a coalition
with Holos ("The Voice"), a US-invented spoiler organization of Lvov region (Galicia) led by
pop singer, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk. He ended up with less than 6% of the national votes, fewer
than forecast. Holos has proved to be neither the voice of youth, nor an organization without
oligarch support (it was backed by Victor Pinchuk), nor a political party at all.
"Polling better than predicted was the Donbass (Donetsk, Lugansk regions) party,
Opposition Platform led by Victor Medvedchuk, which ended up with 13% nationally; 48% in
Lugansk; 42% in Donetsk; 24% in Odessa; and 19% in Nikolaev. If the additional votes of the
eastern Opposition Bloc of Boris Kolesnikov and Vadim Novinsky are counted with Medvedchuk's
aggregate, together they have drawn majorities of 53% to 54%, putting Zelensky's party in the
east in a minority.
"This is the first time democracy has defeated a US Government-installed putsch and junta
in Europe since the election of Andreas Papandreou's Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK)
in 1982."
According to John Helmer "President Volodomyr Zelensky (right) is suffering from memory
failure, mood swings, and other neurological disorders after his hospitalisation for Covid-19
five months ago..." The obvious theory is that Zelensky was playing for time while giving the
ultra fascists and their Canadian sponsors free rein until the elections gave the Ukrainian
people- powerless political flotsam and jetsam, tossed around by Ottawa Nazis, Anglo
imperialism and a corrupt oligarchy which has been robbing everyone in sight, blind since
time immemorial a chance to indicate that it would be an extremely dumb move to attack
Russia. Amongst other reasons, because the average Ukrainian would very likely side with the
Russians against their ancient persecutors the Poles and Balts.
b wrote
"
It seems that order has come from Washington to stand down - at least for now. U.S.
reconnaissance flights near Russia's border continue. One should therefore consider that the
sudden call for a renewed ceasefire might be a ruse.
But if it is not why was all of this allowed to happen in the first place?
"
Good question. It fits with the characterization of late empire flailing at trying to
exert/maintain control over global narratives. Empire keeps hoping that Russia and China back
down because they have no other options than bullying. This is just the latest example of the
bully being faced up to.....thank you Mr. Putin!....we just hope the bully goes down without
taking all the rest of us with it.
I suspect that the US and its NATO lapdogs are playing a distraction game. And I think
that the Russian government knows this; but also realizes that the Western nations are
cirrently in the grips of madcap rulers. Thus Russia is not taking any chance. One can bet
that, as the whole empire crashes, it would like to bring down as much of humanity down with
it as it can. The future of the earth is not bright.
If Ukraine doesn't start their self-destruction by launching war before end of June then I
will believe the danger has passed this year and only because the crazies in the US are
hesitating to push the final button.
But if it is not why was all of this allowed to happen in the first place?
The only plausible explanation is that time isn't in favor of the Ukraine (and maybe the
USA). Time is running up.
We should stop seeing capitalism as this unmovable, eternal and indestructible system, and
the USA as this eternal and indestructible empire with endless resources. Both
presuppositions are entirely false: capitalism and the USA are historically specific
phenomena, and they will - 100% certainty - collapse and disappear eventually.
In politics, time is always relative. You know you won't last forever, but you know you
don't need to: you just need to last longer than your political enemy. The fact that USA
outlived the USSR gave it almost 17 years of incontestable supremacy, even though, analyzing
the numbers, we know that the economic apex of the American Empire (its "golden age") was
between Eisenhower and Lyndon B. Johnson. The absence of its geopolitical rival resulted in
the fact that the American Empire reached its pinnacle during Bill Clinton and George W.
Bush, not at the time its people was the most happy, during 1945-1969.
But geopolitical apex doesn't always translate automatically to economic apex. The USA
also suffered a lot with the Oil Crisis of 1974, after which it quickly started to
financialize and deindustrialize, in a process that was best symbolized by the Nixon Reforms
(the creation of the Petrodollar in 1971 with the secret talks with the Saudi royal family
and the deal with China in 1972). This crisis was masked solely by the fact that the USSR
suffered even more with the Oil Crisis than the USA, resulting into a relative
ascension. This relative ascension can be verified by the fact that Ronald Reagan was the
most popular POTUS of the post-war USA: his reign was, by all economic metrics, a monumental
failure, but it was during his watch that the USSR started to collapse.
Signs of cracks in the USA were already evident when George H. W. Bush wasn't re-elected
because of a tax revolt by the electorate. During Bill Clinton, the American Empire gained a
lot of breathing space thanks to the absorption of the vital space left by the ex-USSR
countries, which were ransacked by the American and, to a lesser extent, German, capitalists
(Victoria Nuland's husband, for example, got extremely rich with the privatization of the
communications services in ex-Yugoslavia, hence her particular interest in Eastern Europe
affairs). But even during Bill Clinton we could already see some dark clouds, e.g. the
infamous "twin deficits" increase. Bill Clinton also governed long enough to see the crisis
of the Asian Tigers (1997) and the Dotcom Crisis (2000). The dark clouds that would result in
the storm of September 2008 were already there, gathering.
Analyzing the economic data, we can clearly see that the USSR wasn't the only one in an
age of stagnation: since 1990, only China and SE Asia genuinely grew. If the 21st Century is
to be consolidated as the "Asian Century", then a historian of the 22nd Century will have to
go back to that year (or even earlier, to the mid-1980s) to try to understand the Asian rise.
Growth elsewhere (when it happened) was either vegetative or fruit of a relocation (i.e. rise
in inequality, bankruptcy of some sectors in favor of others) of wealth. During the 2000s,
almost all the economic growth can be exclusively traced back to China (Russia's and Brazil's
commodity booms, SE Asia's continued dynamism due to China's outsourcing or financing of
American debt).
The 2008 crisis ended Neoliberalism as a hegemonic ideology. Today's world is still very
much neoliberal, but only because the global elites don't know what to do and, either way,
it's being implemented in a very distorted way, very far from its ideological purity of the
1990s. No one takes neoliberalism seriously anymore, even among the high echelons of the
economics priesthood. Some remnants of neoliberal thought are still alive in the form of some
living fossils in Latin America, but its end if fait accompli.
It is in this world that the Ukraine chose to align with the American Empire. To put it
simply, it chose the wrong side at the wrong time: it chose the West in an era that's
shifting to the East. The euphoria of the fall of socialism masked the degeneration of
capitalism that was started at the same time and it particularly impacted the Warsaw Pact
(Comecon) and the Western ex-USSR nations.
The Ukraine debacle has two aspects. First of all: the Maidan color revolutionaries
clearly envisioned a neonazi, pro-Western Ukraine in its territorial integrity, i.e. with
Crimea, Luhansk and Donbas. They didn't see the pro-Russians being well-organized enough to
be able to quickly fall back to Russia (Crimea being the most spectacular case, rapidly
organizing a referendum and fully integrating with Russia). Those losses are big: without
Crimea, Ukraine essentially lost any significant Black Sea influence, and without Donbas +
Luhansk, it practically lost all its industry and economy. Donbas specifically was a huge
blow to the Ukrainians: since the Tsarist era, it was the most industrialized and advanced
region of the Russian Empire (even more than Moscow and St. Petersburg) and it continued to
be so during the Soviet Era - three of the main Soviet General-Secretaries of the post-war
era came from the region (Krushchev, Brezhnev and Gorbachev).
Secondly, Ukraine, by choosing capitalism, has put itself withing the capitalist metabolic
clock. The era of the Marshall Plan is gone. The USA needs wealth and it needs now. It will
have to pay tributes to its new metropolis, and the price is high. The USA will settle for
nothing less than the entire Ukraine - including the rich regions of the Donbas basin, plus
the Crimea (over which its powerful Navy will be able to project into Russian territory). It
also won't settle for anything less than a fully NATO-integrated, IMF-controlled Ukraine.
That's the price for a full accession to the capitalist club post-2008.
In this sense, Ukraine's time is very short, as it is sucking the IMF dry (financial black
hole) and it will collapse soon. The patience of the Empire is short and is getting shorter.
As is common with capitalist societies, the Ukraine is also starting to devour itself as it
collapses with the lack of vital space: the liberal elites governing it are having to ask
themselves how can they get out of this mess without being murdered by the neonazi base that
sustains it; at this point, they're more worried about avoiding another Night of the Long
Knives than in reconquering the Donbas and Crimea.
The only good aspect I see in the dissolution and extinction of the Ukraine is that it can
finally put to rest the myth that Nazism is a brutal, but highly efficient, "system": there's
not such a thing - and never was - as a "Nazi system". Germany already was the second
industrial superpower by the time Hitler rose to power; he never elaborated any kind of
economic theory or even policy, instead delegating it to the already existing (Weimarian)
industrial elite. Hitler was just a very powerful cheerleader who dreamed in being an epic
movie. There was never such a thing called "national socialism" - it was just the name of the
Bavarian party that already existed when Hitler crossed the border; it was by mere chance of
destiny that he came from Austria (Southern border) and not Denmark (Northern border),
France/Alsace-Lorraine (Western border) or Poland-Sudentenland (Eastern border). Nazism is
not a system, it is just crazy liberalism, and I hope the white supremacists and
traditionalists in the West take note of that - if they don't want to be crushed.
MarkU , Apr 10 2021 17:28 utc |
27Prof , Apr 10 2021 17:33 utc |
28
VK The Oil Shock only added to the 1973-75 recession. The Oil Shock was political in nature,
and somewhat coordinated with the USG itself. The deeper causes of the early 70s economic
crisis, and of the end of Bretton Woods, was declining profitability across all advanced
capitalist states. See Robert Brenner's book, The Economics of Global Turbulence.
It is more than 24 hours since the initial announcement of a stand down and it would be
nice to see some confirmation. Troops withdrawing would be confirmation. If it is happening
in is not reported. What we get tends to be like the NYT item cited by John H @ 20. Nothing
in that article but fantasy and delusion. The ongoing narrative crowds out facts until
nothing is left. No one is as bad as NYT, still it is hard to trust anything we read.
Keeping an army in the field indefinitely is difficult. At minimum the troops must be fed
and must be kept busy. Does Ukraine have the wherewithal to do that? I tend to doubt that,
and yes, I am speculating. We will find out much later how bad desertion has been. We will
find out much later how the hodgepodge of conscripts, mercs, Special Forces, and NATO got
along. Reporting from 2014 had it that 600 NATO of every flavor were captured in the
Debaltsevo cauldron. If you believe that. I can't see how Ukraine musters and fields another
army after this if it is in fact over. More likely future armies will resemble what US
manipulates in Syria -- Turks, Uighurs, jihadis from whole planet, mercs.
Domestic politics in Uke have to be crazy. No one can possibly know what is happening
except the US Embassy. And they have their brains fogged by a lifetime of NYT fiction. No
good locals for them to work with. If there was anyone good we would have seen them by
now.
One must be awestruck with the talent the neo cons have for nation destruction. What they
created in Ukraine is a virtual post nuclear war. Neither the EU or Russia want this
basket-case-failed-Nazi state. Like the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, it has fortified its
enemy whom it intended to weaken. Now, Putin has a Hezbollah type ally in the Donetsk and
Lugansk region, and it has Russian Crimean back to the Motherland.
Nuland et al may be trying to show themselves loyal agents of Israel, testing whether
Russia can be distracted from Syria, or pretending to raise the cost of NS2. Russia and China
could make balanced moves in the Caribbean to tame the bullies, but may see no advantage in
counterthreats.
Such an utter humiliation of the US to pursue such foolish and racist FP, admitting its
complete control by money power in all federal branches and mass media.
As others here suggest, it's possible to read this as a success for the neocons. Ukrainian
gov't troop movements set off Russian troop movements, which are then portrayed as
aggressive, justifying whatever. It is very hard to believe that they seriously contemplated
an attack on Russia's doorstep, or in its antechamber. But the question remains as to how far
Zelensky's can has been kicked down the road.
I am wondering if this might be an advantage for Russia and other countries in the mid
to long term, that their companies are forced to master all the complex technologies involved
as fast as possible? Maybe they will even become competitors to their western
equivalents?
Usually, when governments decide about big industry projects, they demand that their
national companies get some orders to profit from the project. Now, it seems reversed. The
German government is still not openly against Nord Stream 2, but it has to be finished
without some of the companies originally involved.
A pipe bearing the Nord Stream 2 logo at a plant in Chelyabinsk, Russia, Feb. 26, 2020. PHOTO: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERS Listen to this article 5 minutes 00:00 / 05:07 1x Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma found himself in the company of a political titan, France's President François Mitterrand, on a gloomy day in December 1994. "Young man, you will be tricked, one way or another," Mitterrand told Mr. Kuchma, who was then the leader of a newly independent nation. Unsettled as he felt, Mr. Kuchma accepted the security assurances of the U.S., U.K. and Russia and signed the Budapest Memorandum. In exchange, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, then the third-largest in the world. Little did we know that two decades later one of the signatories -- Russia -- would attack Ukraine and occupy its sovereign territory. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma found himself in the company of a political titan, France's President François Mitterrand, on a gloomy day in December 1994. "Young man, you will be tricked, one way or another," Mitterrand told Mr. Kuchma, who was then the leader of a newly independent nation. Unsettled as he felt, Mr. Kuchma accepted the security assurances of the U.S., U.K. and Russia and signed the Budapest Memorandum. In exchange, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal, then the third-largest in the world. Little did we know that two decades later one of the signatories -- Russia -- would attack Ukraine and occupy its sovereign territory. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Now, after many years of wooing and cajoling, Russia's attitude toward Ukraine is again growing belligerent. The Minsk process to resolve the conflict is stalled, and foreign troops have yet to leave the Donbas, the Ukrainian region where fighting rages on. Despite the supposed cessation of hostilities agreed to in September 2014, when the Minsk protocol was signed, little progress has been made. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. Ukrainians therefore are bewildered by the continuing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2. Unlike the attack on Crimea, which came as a surprise, the pipeline's completion will have entirely predictable consequences for our national security. Ukraine will be irreparably weakened as soon as Russia has a new direct gas link to Germany. With the Nord Stream 1 and Turk Stream pipelines already operational, Nord Stream 2 will complete the encirclement of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states, decoupling our energy security from Western Europe. Russia has tried to bully Ukraine by threatening gas cutoffs, most recently in June 2014. But Moscow has always had to be careful -- a large percentage of Russia's gas reaches Europe through Ukraine. If Nord Stream 2 is built, this consideration will be null and void. With the Nord Stream 1 and Turk Stream pipelines already operational, Nord Stream 2 will complete the encirclement of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states, decoupling our energy security from Western Europe. Russia has tried to bully Ukraine by threatening gas cutoffs, most recently in June 2014. But Moscow has always had to be careful -- a large percentage of Russia's gas reaches Europe through Ukraine. If Nord Stream 2 is built, this consideration will be null and void. me title= NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP
All the day's Opinion headlines.
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The Kremlin has demonstrated time and again its willingness to use energy trade to advance its geopolitical
ambitions. It would be unwise, if not reckless, for Europe to increase its dependence on
Gazprom
,
Russia's
state-owned energy company, and give Moscow direct control over which countries are supplied with gas and which
can be cut off.
The current contract between Gazprom and Ukraine's gas-transit operator guarantees the flow of westward exports
via Ukraine until the end of 2024. But make no mistake: The day Nord Stream 2 is completed, that promise will be
worthless. Even if some transit through Ukraine persists, Ukraine will be subject to the Kremlin's whims.
The fighting in the Donbas, where Russia operates through its proxies, mercenaries and even regular troops, has
continued unabated for more than seven years. The gas pipeline has been spared from shelling -- Russia needs
uninterrupted gas flows through Ukraine as much as we do. This mutual dependence is a deterrent that Nord Stream 2
will remove.
Ukraine is grateful to the U.S. Congress, which recognized the true nature of this pipeline project, and the
European Parliament, which voted 10-to-1 on Jan. 21 to demand a halt to construction with a resolution on the
arrest of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny in Moscow.
Germany and Europe already have access to a massive gas-transit network spanning the Black and Baltic seas,
Belarus and Ukraine. The existing capacity is more than 50% higher than current consumption of Russian gas in the
European Union. Even if the demand increases as Germany is working to phase out nuclear and coal power generation,
there is no commercial need for another pipeline.
While Germany has little to gain, Ukraine stands to lose billions of dollars in transit revenue if the second
Baltic Sea gas link is built -- a fact that Nord Stream 2 apologists often present as the only basis for Ukrainian
opposition. The economic effect will be significant, but the claim is deliberately misleading. Ukrainian soldiers
will be putting their lives on the line if Russia decides to escalate the conflict in the Donbas after it no
longer needs to consider the effect on gas exports.
Ukraine understands the need to strengthen the trans-Atlantic alliance and the desire to find a solution that
works for both Washington and Berlin. It is, however, incumbent on the Kremlin first to demonstrate respect for
international law. The ball is in Moscow's court. It can and should end hostilities in the Donbas region, withdraw
its troops from the Crimean Peninsula and restore Ukrainian sovereignty.
President Biden was right to call the pipeline "a bad deal for Europe." As the project inches closer to
completion, Ukrainians can't help but recall Mitterrand's words from nearly 30 years ago. Ukraine was tricked,
just as the French president predicted. Let us not repeat history but learn from it. We must come together and
reject Nord Stream 2 once and for all.
Mr. Reznikov is Ukraine's deputy prime minister for reintegration of the temporarily occupied territories.
V
V Lee
SUBSCRIBER
1 day ago
The Ukrainian kleptocracy will see their cut shrink or disappear when gas will start flowing via Nord Stream 2. Not "a
bad deal for Europe" just for Ukraine.
A Koster
SUBSCRIBER
17 hours ago
Did i mention Turkey's role in Syria ?
It's interesting that everyone conveniently fails "to mention the role that gas line geopolitics
played in the "fallout" between Erdogan and Assad; as soon as Assad vetoed the Qatar-Turkey pipeline
that would have brought massive wealth to his family's energy transshipment business (BMZ Ltd), Assad
instead signing on to the Iran-Iraq-Syria "Friendship Pipeline", the friendship was ended and the war
on Assad commenced"
A Koster
SUBSCRIBER
1 day ago
This article is about one thing.. absolutely nothing to do with a risk to Ukraine's national security
'Ukraine stands to lose billions of dollars in transit revenue if the second Baltic Sea gas link is built"
And Turkey is in there like a dirty shirt.. see "Russia Warns of Full-Scale War in Eastern Ukraine, Blames
Kyiv".. like it was with Azerbaijan as they slaughtered thousands of Christians in Armenia.. and all for the
first find in the Caspian Sea by Azerbaijan since Russia's breakup.. HINT: they wanted.. not needed.. a
direct route west for a pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey.. which they got in a Russia brokered peace deal
So i guess congratulations are in order to Biden's NATO as they loyally keep working on enlarging the EU and
keeping the oil baron families of Erdogan and Alyiev filthy rich
James Schumaker
SUBSCRIBER
1 hour ago
I suggest you look up the Budapest Memorandum. The U.S. gave no guarantees. Like Russia, it gave assurances. I also
suggest you stop falling for pro-Trump talking points and look at what Trump actually did with regard to Ukraine. He
tried to extort its President into digging up dirt on his main political opponent by threatening to withdraw military
aid. That's what he was impeached for -- the first time.
RODNEY SMITH
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
Where does Burisma stand on the issue? Will be Biden's brief.
Jens Praestgaard
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
Otto von Bismarck's maxim for the newly formed German state was to always keep cordial relations with Russia. NordStream
2 is a step towards normalization of the German/Russian relationship after 120 years of failure.
Jim Mcdonnell
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
Bismarck's policy made sense in 19th Century Europe, and had Kaiser Wilhelm II not scuttled it we would be
living in a very different world. But he did scuttle it, and the world has changed - largely in ways Bismarck
sought to prevent - a great deal, as has Europe.
Heiko Muhr
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
Bismarck's thoughts about Germany's geopolitical situation are still relevant today. He argued that the
map that matters for German politicians is the map of Europe [and since 1945 that frame has been enlarged,
has included the US and Canada]. That Germany needed to pay particular attention to relationships with its
neighbors. That the country was to small to dominate Europe, and should rely on a system of stable alliances
to ensure stability, Ukraine and Russia are neighbors, Bismarck would have seen relationships with both
countries as relevant. Communication channels need to be kept open, those relationships need to be
managed. One neighbor, Russia, is an authoritarian state and since 2014 more openly aggressive. It needs
to be contained and challenged. The US has not been a reliable partner in doing that in the last 4 years
under Trump. That might change under a Biden, but will he be able to make and lock in the appropriate policy
decisions? We'll see.
John Bute
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
Germany has made a terrible strategic mistake by abandoning nuclear power to become more and more dependent on Russian
natural gas. France gets 70% of its electricity from nuclear power and about 10% from fossil fuel. Only moderate
increases in hydro power and renewable energy will make it fossil fuel independent.
Heiko Muhr
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
German voters make their own decisions about climate change and definitely don't look for US advice. Power
plants burning coal and producing nuclear energy are coming off the grid. Natural gas will continue to be
important in that mix for quite some time. The Green Party's power is growing. It successfully expanded its
electoral base in 2 state elections this spring with broad support from middle class voters. After all,
environmentalism is a full belly movement. The Greens will challenge the German Conservatives, Merkel's
Christian Democrats, in September at the ballot box in national elections and other state elections. And Merkel
will not be on the ballot. Her CDU, which has been consistently the most pro-American party in Europe, finds
that pro-American stance is now a big liability. 4 years of the Trump regime. which treated Germans as clients,
changed the political landscape. Fewer Germans see the US is as a reliable partner, and that is now true even
in Merkel's party.
SCOTT CORE
SUBSCRIBER
1 day ago
Germany may view the US as an unreliable partner but they still rely on the US for economic and military
protection. Perhaps Germans have replaced the US with NATO in their minds and ignored the fact that the US
is the majority of NATO. Where Russia to threaten Germany where do you think Germany would turn? France? UK?
China?
So Germans are free to trash Trump for asking them to provide a modicum of their own protection but in the
end they will look to the US should they be threatened either economically by a cutoff of gas from Russia or
a military threat from Russia.
Heiko Muhr
SUBSCRIBER
20 hours ago
Look at Gallup polling data or the Pew Research Center's data in its Global attitudes program. In many countries Trump
ranked even below Xi or Putin. He was perceived as the bigger threat--unstable, angry, without a strategic vision, just
a ventilator of his emotions, a middle schooler craving attention, a clown. Yet he made these huge claims, all lies,
that the US was respected and listened to. The polling data tells us otherwise. Trump's lying and the hubris that fell
from these lies, that is unprecedented.
And now; THE LOSER. The Mouse-of-Mar-a-Lago. But, the Republican Party still follows him.. The man will be remembered as
the worst president the US ever had, ranking even below the corrupt Harding and the imbecile Buchanan. The lowest of the
low. And as THE LIAR [-->Trump should register that as a trademark]. History books won't be kind to him and the suckers
that still gobble up his lies even now after the putsch or whatever you want to call the Capitol "riot." Barnum was
right!
michael ring
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
England and France have their own nuclear deterrents. Europeans just want cheap steady supply of energy. Russia is in
the Middle East because Hillary and Obama destroyed Syria and Libya. Bush put us in Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years!
Trump started the withdrawal. Let's hope sleepy preacher Biden continues it.
Heiko Muhr
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
A little reality check: At the very moment when Washington supposedly champions energy independence and warns European
allies against becoming too dependent on Moscow, American refineries are buying more Russian oil than ever before.
Check out the article by Javier Blas on the Bloomberg News site, published Mar. 24, 2021: "U.S. Thirst for Russian
Oil Hits Record High Despite Tough Talk."
David Thomson
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
Puerto Rico buys Russian LNG because there are no American-built LNG tankers. Thanks to the Jones Act, we can't ship
LNG from Texas to PR.
Eugene Boutz
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
(Edited)
Ukraine is composed of three *identities* which have nothing in common and want nothing in common.
There are the Russian speakers in the East and along the Black Sea, the people surrounding Lviv in the West which want
to be European and the denizens of Kiev who tend to favor the values and views of the Chancellor of Germany in the '30s.
Ukraine already has a tripartite schism and is most likely headed for a tripartite split once the Russian Federation,
having had its absolute fill of Kiev's games, obtains Beijing approbation to bring the matter to a conclusion with
weaponry of which Kiev can only dream.
The United States is not going to fight a nuclear war with Russia over the interests of the Kiev faction nor does
Germany want it to.
Nor do I.
Nor do you.
Heiko Muhr
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
(Edited)
The Germans are not going to cave. They will finish the pipeline. It is now 96 % built. The West Europeans started
importing Russian gas more than 40 years ago. Ronald Reagan failed when he tried to stick it to the Germans with
sanctions. And so will Cancun Ted. The old pipeline system that runs through Ukraine has been reverse-engineered with EU
funds about a decade ago. Ukraine has already been reliably supplied from the West when the Russians cut supplies. The
talking points in this piece are based on Cancun Ted's hallucinations, and not the facts on the ground. For a factual
analysis see Eugene Rumer's long piece published today in Defense News "Punishing Germany for Nord Stream 2 does nothing
to stop Putin." Rumer is the director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace. He previously worked as a national intelligence officer on Russia and Eurasia for the U.S. National Intelligence
Council. He actually knows what he is talking about.
William Wahl
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
Just put Hunter on it. He'll fix this right up.
michael ring
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
Biden has been on the wrong side of every foreign policy decision in his entire career in Washington. Mitterrrand
was a bureaucrat who started his rise in vischy France. Ukraine is in a tough spot. So is Russia. They
have been fighting for 7 years. Body counts go up,citizens do not like it. Russia will not sacrifice one
pipeline for another. Ukraine and Russia can agree to no NATO troops on their border and tensions will go
down.
bruce miller
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
And who talked Ukraine into giving up their nukes? Well we did. Or rather, Slick and his pals did. Bet
the Ukrainians wish they'd kept a bunch. Just for old time's sake.
michael ring
SUBSCRIBER
2 days ago
What bargaining power would they be?No person or government in their right mind would use them. This is
about land grabbing.
GreatCaesar'sGhost called it: Ukraine is a tool to shut down Nordstream. Ukraine will push until Russia does something, then Germany shuts down Nordstream, shooting
themselves in the foot.
Puppyteethofdeath 1 hour ago
There's always the chance that election fraud will bring the Green Party to rise in Germany
also.
They'll gladly get rid of Nordstream 2 and destroy the German economy.
Ukraine and Russia may be on the brink of war – with dire consequences for the whole
of Eurasia. Let's cut to the chase, and plunge head-on into the fog of war.
On March 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky, for all practical purposes, signed a declaration of war
against Russia, via decree No. 117/2021.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks
during a joint press conference with European Council President in Kiev on March 3, 2021.
Photo: AFP / Sergey Dolzhenko
The decree establishes that retaking Crimea from Russia is now Kiev's official policy.
That's exactly what prompted an array of Ukrainian battle tanks to be shipped east on flatbed
rail cars, following the saturation of the Ukrainian army by the US with military equipment
including unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, anti-tank systems and
man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
More crucially, the Zelensky decree is the proof any subsequent war will have been prompted
by Kiev, debunking the proverbial claims of "Russian aggression." Crimea, since the referendum
of March 2014, is part of the Russian Federation.
It was this (italics mine) de facto declaration of war, which Moscow took very
seriously, that prompted the deployment of extra Russian forces to Crimea and closer to the
Russian border with Donbass. Significantly, these include the crack 76 th Guards Air
Assault Brigade, known as the Pskov paratroopers and, according to an intel report quoted to
me, capable of taking Ukraine in only six hours.
It certainly does not help that in early April US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, fresh
from his former position as a board member of missile manufacturer Raytheon, called Zelensky to
promise "unwavering US support for Ukraine's sovereignty." That ties in with Moscow's
interpretation that Zelensky would never have signed his decree without a green light from
Washington.
On March 8, 2021, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks during observance of
International Women's Day in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC. Photo: AFP /
Mandel Ngan
Controlling the narrative
Sevastopol, already when I visited in December 2018 , is one of
the most heavily defended places on the planet, impervious even to a NATO attack. In his
decree, Zelensky specifically identifies Sevastopol as a prime target.
Once again, we're back to 2014 post-Maidan unfinished business.
To contain Russia, the US deep state/NATO combo needs to control the Black Sea –
which, for all practical purposes, is now a Russian lake. And to control the Black Sea, they
need to "neutralize" Crimea.
If any extra proof was necessary, it was provided by Zelensky himself on Tuesday this week
in a
phone call with NATO secretary-general and docile puppet Jens Stoltenberg.
NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg gives a press conference at the end of a NATO Foreign
Ministers' meeting at the Alliance's headquarters in Brussels on March 24, 2021. Photo: AFP /
Olivier Hoslet
Zelensky uttered the key phrase: "NATO is the only way to end the war in Donbass" –
which means, in practice, NATO expanding its "presence" in the Black Sea. "Such a permanent
presence should be a powerful deterrent to Russia, which continues the large-scale
militarization of the region and hinders merchant shipping."
All of these crucial developments are and will continue to be invisible to global public
opinion when it comes to the predominant, hegemon-controlled narrative.
The deep state/NATO combo is imprinting 24/7 that whatever happens next is due to "Russian
aggression." Even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) launch a blitzkrieg against the Lugansk
and Donetsk People's Republics. (To do so against Sevastopol in Crimea would be certified mass
suicide).
In the United States, Ron Paul has been one of the very few voices to
state the obvious: "According to the media branch of the US
military-industrial-congressional-media complex, Russian troop movements are not a response to
clear threats from a neighbor, but instead are just more 'Russian aggression.'"
What's implied is that Washington/Brussels don't have a clear tactical, much less strategic
game plan: only total narrative control.
And that is fueled by rabid Russophobia – masterfully
deconstructed by the indispensable Andrei Martyanov, one of the world's top military
analysts.
A possibly hopeful sign is that on March 31, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian
Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General
Mark Milley, talked on the phone about the proverbial "issues of mutual interest."
Days later, a
Franco-German statement came out, calling on "all parties" to de-escalate. Merkel and
Macron seem to have gotten the message in their videoconference with Putin – who must
have subtly alluded to the effect generated by Kalibrs, Kinzhals and assorted hypersonic
weapons if the going gets tough and the Europeans sanction a Kiev blitzkrieg.
French
President Emmanuel Macron speaks as German Chancellor Angela Merkel looks on after a
German-French Security Council video conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on February 5,
2021. Photo: AFP / Thibault Camus
The problem is Merkel and Macron don't control NATO. Yet Merkel and Macron at least are
fully aware that if the US/NATO combo attacks Russian forces or Russian passport holders who
live in Donbass, the devastating response will target the command centers that coordinated the
attacks.
What does the hegemon want?
As part of his current Energizer bunny act, Zelensky made an extra eyebrow-raising move.
This past Monday, he visited Qatar with a lofty delegation and clinched
a raft of deals , not circumscribed to LNG but also including direct Kiev-Doha flights;
Doha leasing or buying a Black Sea port; and strong "defense/military ties" – which could
be a lovely euphemism for a possible transfer of jihadis from Libya and Syria to fight Russian
infidels in Donbass.
Right on cue, Zelensly meets Turkey's Erdogan next Monday. Erdogan's intel services run the
jihadi proxies in Idlib, and dodgy Qatari funds are still part of the picture. Arguably, the
Turks are already transferring those "moderate
rebels" to Ukraine. Russian intel is meticulously monitoring all this activity.
A series of informed discussions – see, for instance, here and here
– is converging on what may be the top three targets for the hegemon amid all this mess,
short of war: to provoke an irreparable fissure between Russia and the EU, under NATO auspices;
to crash the Nord Steam 2 pipeline; and to boost profits in the weapons business for the
military-industral complex.
So the key question then is whether Moscow would be able to apply a Sun Tzu move short of
being lured into a hot war in the Donbass.
On the ground, the outlook is grim. Denis Pushilin, one of the top leaders of the Lugansk
and Donetsk people's republics, has stated that the chances of avoiding war are "extremely
small." Serbian sniper Dejan Beric – whom I met in Donetsk in 2015 and who is a certified
expert on the ground – expects a Kiev attack in early May .
The extremely controversial Igor Strelkov, who may be termed an exponent of "orthodox
socialism," a sharp critic of the Kremlin's policies who is one of the very few warlords who
survived after 2014, has unequivocally
stated that the only chance for peace is for the Russian army to control Ukrainian
territory at least up to the Dnieper river. He stresses that a war in April is "very likely";
for Russia war "now" is better than war later; and there's a 99% possibility that Washington
will not fight for Ukraine.
On this last item at least Strelkov has a point; Washington and NATO want a war fought to
the last Ukrainian.
Rostislav Ischenko, the top Russian analyst of Ukraine whom I had the pleasure of meeting in
Moscow in late 2018, persuasively argues
that, "the overall diplomatic, military, political, financial and economic situation powerfully
requires the Kiev authorities to intensify combat operations in Donbass.
"By the way," Ischenko added, "the Americans do not give a damn whether Ukraine will hold
out for any time or whether it will be blown to pieces in an instant. They believe they stand
to gain from either outcome."
Gotta defend Europe
Let's assume the worst in Donbass. Kiev launches its blitzkrieg. Russian intel documents
everything. Moscow instantly announces it is using the full authority conferred by the UNSC to
enforce the Minsk 2 ceasefire.
In what would be a matter of 8 hours or a maximum 48 hours, Russian forces smash the whole
blitzkrieg apparatus to smithereens and send the Ukrainians back to their sandbox, which is
approximately 75km north of the established contact zone.
In the Black Sea, incidentally, there's no contact zone. This means Russia may send out all
its advanced subs plus the surface fleet anywhere around the "Russian lake": They are already
deployed anyway.
Russian President Vladimir Putin looks on as Novator Design Bureau
director-general Farid Abdrakhmanov and Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko shake hands
during a signing ceremony for government contracts in Alabino, Moscow region, Russia. on June
27, 2019. Photo: AFP / Alexei Druzhinin / Sputnik
Once again Martyanov lays down the law when he predicts, referring to a group of Russian
missiles developed by the Novator Design Bureau: "Crushing Ukies' command and control system is
a matter of few hours, be that near border or in the operational and strategic Uki depth.
Basically speaking, the whole of the Ukrainian 'navy' is worth less than the salvo of 3M54 or
3M14 which will be required to sink it. I think couple of Tarantuls will be enough to finish it
off in or near Odessa and then give Kiev, especially its government district, a taste of modern
stand-off weapons."
The absolutely key issue, which cannot be emphasized enough, is that Russia will not
(italics mine) "invade" Ukraine. It doesn't need to, and it doesn't want to. What Moscow will
do for sure is to support the Novorossiya people's republics with equipment, intel, electronic
warfare, control of airspace and special forces. Even a no-fly zone will not be necessary; the
"message" will be clear that were a NATO fighter jet to show up near the frontline, it would be
summarily shot down.
And that brings us to the open "secret" whispered only in informal dinners in Brussels, and
chancelleries across Eurasia: NATO puppets do not have the balls to get into an open conflict
with Russia.
One thing is to have yapping dogs like Poland, Romania, the Baltic gang and Ukraine
amplified by corporate media on their "Russian aggression" script. Factually, NATO had its
collective behind unceremoniously kicked in Afghanistan. It shivered when it had to fight the
Serbs in the late 1990s. And in the 2010s, it did not dare fight the Damascus and Axis of
Resistance forces.
When all fails, myth prevails. Enter the US Army occupying parts of Europe to "defend" it
against – who else? – those pesky Russians.
That's the rationale behind the annual US Army
DEFENDER-Europe 21 , now on till the end of June, mobilizing 28,000 soldiers from the US
and 25 NATO allies and "partners."
This month, men and heavy equipment pre-positioned in three US Army depots in Italy, Germany
and the Netherlands will be transferred to multiple "training areas" in 12 countries. Oh, the
joys of travel, no lockdown in an open air exercise since everyone has been fully vaccinated
against Covid-19.
Pipelineistan uber alles
Nord Stream 2 is not a big deal for Moscow; it's a Pipelineistan inconvenience at best.
After all the Russian economy did not make a single ruble out of the not yet existent pipeline
during the 2010s – and still it did fine. If NS2 is canceled, there are plans on the
table to redirect the bulk of Russian gas shipments towards Eurasia, especially
China.
Connecting German infrastructure for Nord Stream 2 is in place. In this handout photo
released February 4, 2020, by the press service of Eugal, a view shows the Eugal pipeline, in
Germany. The Eugal pipeline, which will receive gas from Nord Stream 2 in the future, has
reached full pumping capacity, and the second line of the pipeline has been introduced. Photo:
AFP / Press-service of Eugal / Sputnik
In parallel, Berlin knows very well that canceling NS2 will be an extremely serious breach
of contract – involving hundreds of billions of euros; it was Germany that requested the
pipeline to be built in the first place.
Germany's energiewende ("energy transition" policy) has been a disaster. German
industrialists know very well that natural gas is the only alternative to nuclear energy. They
are not exactly fond of Berlin becoming a mere hostage, condemned to buy ridiculously expensive
shale gas from the hegemon – even assuming the egemon will be able to deliver, as its
fracking industry is in shambles. Merkel explaining to German public opinion why they must
revert to using coal or buy shale from the US will be a sight to see.
As it stands, NATO provocations against NS2 proceed unabated – via warships and
helicopters. NS2 needed a permit to work in Danish waters, and it was granted only a month ago.
Even as Russian ships are not as fast in laying pipes as the previous ships from Swiss-based
Allseas
, which backed down, intimidated by US sanctions, the Russian Fortuna is making steady
progress, as noted by analyst Petri Krohn: one kilometer a day on its best days, at least 800
meters a day. With 35 km left, that should not take more than 50 days.
Conversations with German analysts reveal a fascinating shadowplay on the energy front
between Berlin and Moscow – not to mention Beijing. Compare it with Washington: EU
diplomats complain there's absolutely no one to negotiate with regarding NS2. And even assuming
there would be some sort of deal, Berlin is inclined to admit Putin's judgment is correct: the
Americans are "not agreement-capable." One just needs to look at the record.
Behind the fog of war, though, a clear scenario emerges: the deep state/NATO combo using
Kiev to start a war as a Hail Mary pass to ultimately bury NS2, and thus German-Russian
relations.
At the same time, the situation is evolving towards a possible new alignment in the heart of
the "West": US/UK pitted against Germany/France. Some Anglosphere exceptionals are certainly
more Russophobic than others.
The toxic encounter between Russophobia and Pipelineistan will not be over even if NS2 is
completed. There will be more sanctions. There will be an attempt to exclude Russia from SWIFT.
The proxy war in Syria will intensify. The hegemon will go no holds barred to keep creating all
sorts of geopolitical harassment against Russia.
What a nice wag-the-dog op to distract domestic public opinion from massive money printing
masking a looming economic collapse. As the empire crumbles, the narrative is set in stone:
it's all the fault of "Russian aggression."
Well, I'm hoping the Ukrainians will finally remember Bernard Lewis's warning about the
U.S. and realize they are being used like a Kleenex: "America is harmless as an enemy but
treacherous as a friend."
Americans have had it and will never tolerate sending combat troops into a Russia/Ukraine
conflict no matter how much rah-rah let's you and him fight we'll hold your coat for you,
faux patriotism the lugenpresse throw at them. Those of us who volunteered for the US
military in the past have learned our lesson.
"The problem is Merkel and Macron don't control NATO." I don't know how a decision is made
whether NATO will go to war or not but if Germany and France have no say in whether their
soldiers will be sent to war or not, that must by a very scary thought for them.
I found the following analysis interesting and I think it makes sense. It suggests France
and Germany have a say in matters and that they oppose any offensive Ukraine has in mind. The
commentator analyzes the diplomatic language and Germany and France appear to be fed up.
Without coming out and saying so directly, they see things more as Russia does than Ukraine.
It's very unfortunate things have developed this way for Ukraine. In addition, if Merkel
wants to be perceived as a complete failure as chancellor in Germany, only then will she let
NS2 be stopped from being completed. This analysis suggests there may be some strain between
France and Germany versus the USA.
I do have to disagree. If Ukraine start a war Russia must take back all eastern part of
Ukraine that has prevalent Russian population. Odessa and Zaporozhie is particularly
important. Russia must also tale all Kiev area back.
1. Senior Ukrainian officers were once Soviet officers. They, and most of their troops,
don't want to fight Russians and know it's foolish. The Ukrainian army will crumble if they
come in contact with regular Russian troops. It's not that they are cowards, but sane. It
would be like Canadian troops ordered to attack across the American border.
2. The American empire is furious and concerned that its long-time puppet disobeyed
orders. Germany wants Russian gas and the empire wants that pipeline stopped. Not only to
hurt Russia, but to teach the Germans a lesson. If fighting occurs in the Ukraine, would the
Germans dare to buy natgas from evil Russians?
3. Most importantly, Israel controls the American government. A major goal is the
destruction of Syria to allow the expansion of Greater Israel, as explained in the video
below. This nearly succeeded until the Russians intervened. Fighting in Ukraine would divert
Russian military resources from Syria so that nation can be destroyed, or Russia may give up
Syrian support as part of a grand peace deal.
The Biden administration is fully supportive of finishing off Syria and Lebanon, then
moving on to destroy Iran. The new talks about Iran's nuclear program will go nowhere. It's
just a show so Biden can say he tried.
It makes all the difference when the revolving-door regulator-capture reframing is not
"USA/Nato vs Russia" -- but rather the more accurate "Raytheon (et al) vs Russia."
The modern truth is: Russia and China have governments in control of policy and industry.
The USA (and therefore also its yapping poodle collection) have Industry setting policy and
running government for their 1%-er shareholder benefits.
Part of me wants to think that the Ukies will want to fold at the last moment. Yet all
this apparent evidence points to their going for it and promptly getting their collective
noses smashed in. Those who speculate in meta-political geo-strategic analysis cannot make
sense of the moves by the largely incompetent shot-callers and their even more incompetent
minions who cut the orders to their chessmen.
Heavy pressure by the equally incompetent regime in the Di$trict of Corruption, where
carrot and stick are equally in play, is as Escobar points out, the force behind this nearly
automatic death-sentence for the Kiev regime and the poor slobs who make up the draftee
elements in the Ukrainian military.
Again, geopolitically, one wonders at the deeper string-pullers within the Pentagram, the
CIA and the mass media of mind-control and message-massaging. Is this essentially a move to
keep the American people–most particularly the edjumacated managerial and technical
classes who make up the core of the alleged "middle-class"–"on message and in
line"?
Yes, the WarDefense industry (aka Eisenhower's "Military-Industrial Complex") insist on
ongoing wars and threats of war to maintain their profit margins for the prime owners of that
false economic basis,prime actors such as the Rottenchild Crime Clan and the rest of the
parasites clustered in City of London and Wall $treet.
How will the canny and ever wary Russians proceed? Will they operate in the manner that
Escobar proposes, by not directly employing the considerable ground-forces which now stand on
alert just to the eastwards of their mutually agreed upon Swiss-cheese border with the
Novorussians in Donetsk and Luhansk? Or will Russian strategy be somewhat more comprehensive
by liberating the rest of the primarily Russian-speaking parts of eastern and southern
Ukraine which had largely backed the overthrown legitimate government of that bedizened
composite nation and are still smarting under the heels of the Galician fascists and the
smaller grouping of Russophobic Ukrainian nationalists who still harbor nightmares about the
Bolshevik/Stalinoid Holodomar? There are, after all human considerations which may influence
Kremlin policy.
Should Russia decide to make a move, it is my projection that they would never be likely
to even attempt to occupy central Ukraine and would set a stop-line well to the east of Kiev.
Something that bemusingly intrigues me is the Belarus factor. It would appear that the Minsk
regime, smarting from the attempted coup by the Poles, Baltic states and Ukraine backing of
"pro-Westerners, may be mobilizing to get into the action and perhaps readjust their
boundaries somewhat southwards. This could indicate a countering move by the Uniates in
Galicia to make common cause with their Roman Catholic brethren in the afore-mentioned Poland
along with Lithuania and remove their lands of control from a shattered Ukraine and form a
confederation with their neighbors to the west.
There is little doubt in my mind that Russia has numerous human assets in central and
southwestern Ukraine, who along with elements of a disintegrating Ukie military, would unite
to overthrow the rotten regime in Kiev and establish a markedly neutral smaller but more
cohesive Ukraine–a natural though smaller nation which could serve as an essential
buffer between a strengthening Russia and a collection of NATO nations which would then
comprise a hodgepodge of hawks and doves, a discombobulated collection of politico-economic
entities attempting to swim their ways to calmer shores or to maintain some semblance of
"Great Reset" programming in the face of popular resistance to lockdowns and mandated
AstraGenica jabbings.
Worst possible scenario is that someone in the Pentagon-dominated NATO command complex
loses their cool and initiates a conflict that could result in planet-wide chaos and
destruction. One would hope that cooler heads will take a few hits to their expansionist
fantasies and decide to make the best of a failed bit of adventurism and bide their time --
if they feel they have any time remaining before globalist economies hit the skids, leading
to a potential collapse to the myth of progress.
Everyone gets American logic. It's the Ukrainian logic that is truly baffling. Just how
stupid do the Ukrainians have to be to attack when anyone with a brain knows what will be the
outcome?
It makes all the difference when the revolving-door regulator-capture reframing is not
"USA/Nato vs Russia" -- but rather the more accurate "Raytheon (et al) vs Russia."
The modern truth is: Russia and China have governments in control of policy and industry.
The USA (and therefore also its yapping poodle collection) have Industry setting policy and
running government for their 1%-er shareholder benefits.
You can't do any Normal business with a Crime Syndicate like the USA/ EU and or Israel.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and others. Russia is so close to being self sufficient , they could
turn their back on the West and it's cut throat allies , and just look to the East until the
West implodes. They will have to destroy all armies within close proximity to their borders,
including the Ukrainian/Mercenary one. Moscow must still have Jew Oligarchy baggage, that is
making money on Wall Street and those ties need to break apart or come to a Pro Russian
agreement or else. Rename Kyiv to Berlin 1944, and Lviv to Dresden and take it from there
– and don't look back anymore. And PS : on way to Lviv, Agent Orange every F..n
Monsanto/Bayer, Dupont and Cargil farm – like they did to Vietnam.
Behind the fog of war, though, a clear scenario emerges: the deep state/NATO combo
using Kiev to start a war as a Hail Mary pass to ultimately bury NS2, and thus
German-Russian relations.
Yes but also the Ukraine needs to save those gas transit fees that will go kaput if NS2 is
completed and operational, so it is the Ukraine the one with the most immediate incentive to
start a war. Though they need just a small war, a little war to force the hands of the
Germans to cancel NS2. Problem is the Russians have promised to give the Ukrainians more than
what they bargained for. To save those gas transit fees the Ukrainians may end losing the
country to a puppet installed by the Kremlin.
Escobar, besides not naming the Jew, does not mention which side Israel is likely to
support. We can be pretty certain that whichever side Israel supports is going to be the
victor in this conflict. Turkey is also important because of the Bosphorus, and Turkey and
Israel are working together to exploit the Leviathan gas field to the detriment of Cyprus and
Syria, so Israel can jerk Turkey around like a pitbull on a chain.
The US has been moving drones into Ukraine and they now are right on the border with
Crimea. The US Marines also have a large presence in Romania, also likely including all kinds
of drones. The Israelis are among the planet's leaders in drone technology, and surely own
even more patents. Israel provides much of its drone technology to Turkey, and the
Azerbeijanis used Turkish and Israeli drones in their short war with Armenia. During this
short war the Azerbeijanis shot up all kinds of Russian equipment with their drones including
Pantsir's and ZSU-23's.
The US also has all kinds of stealth drones and missiles, likely that is one area where
they lead the entire planet.
If this assessment is correct (in Russian but comes out OK in Google translate), then the
US / NATO have to get involved to compensate for the lack of a Ukrainian air force –
and in fact the rest of their obsolete equipment.
Personally, I can't imagine US or NATO troops on the ground in the Ukraine – and I
don't see any planning for it, so what's the idea?
One possibility seems to be 1) to start the fighting 2) then start the real game, which
is a massive anti-Russian media barrage "heroic Ukrainian patriots", "Russian atrocities",
"killer Putin" etc. sufficient to finish with Nord Stream 2, divide Russia from
France/Germany, plus reanimate NATO and sanction Russia. Basically to force Europe back into
US hegemony, and away from independent decision making.
They won't have any problem with the UK (their most slavish follower) but at some point
the French and Germans are surely going to become tired of all this CIA/Neo-con BS.
[German Industrialists] are not exactly fond of Berlin becoming a mere hostage,
condemned to buy ridiculously expensive shale gas from the hegemon .
German Industrialists and financiers have been repeatedly shaken down by the hegemon for
fines related to a number of "infractions." The scuttlebutt I've heard from a number of them
is that it got old a long time ago; what point is it to participate in the US market when
your profits are repeatedly clawed back as "fines," and those in the US with whom you compete
are given a leg up not just in the US, but on the world stage. Left to most industrialists,
Germany might have gone its own way years ago. Oddly enough, it is the
Ossivergeltungswaffe who dithers over breaking ranks with the "ally" that openly spied
on her.
And even assuming there would be some sort of deal, Berlin is inclined to admit Putin's
judgment is correct: the Americans are "not agreement-capable." One just needs to look at
the record.
The most recent example would be the Doha agreement on the US withdrawal of forces and
personnel from Afghanistan. Apparently the Pentagon recently awarded a number of contracts
for contractor services in that country for some time well past the "agreed" withdrawal date,
strongly suggesting the agreement to leave was a ruse.
Unfortunately we live in a world where history is/was erased, facts don't matter or they
can be twisted to fit anything no matter how ridiculous, the present is what I say it is.
Thus US and its vassals are just interested in their today's narrative.
Ukrainian leadership is hopelessly incompetent and corrupt so will do anything Biden's gang
tells them. It's simply a depressing scenario.
Blinken poking the Ukies to attack is a Hail Mary to stop NS2. Maybe it will work,
maybe not. But a few hundred or a few thousand dead Ukies is worth the Russian boogeyman
psy-op for the empire.
""Ukraine and Russia may be on the brink of War blah blah""
Contrary to what Pepe asserts the rest of the world will not give a shit. Memories of
Chechnya? The sooner Putin over runs the place the better. You can bet the Ukrainian ruling
elite, for all their gumption, have their jets all fuelled and ready with flight plans for
the US via Switzerland...
"NATO puppets do not have the balls to get into an open conflict with Russia."
Sadly not so sure.
Some has it`s own agenda, like POland, Lithuania. Not even NATO/ US are in full control over
that, and needs no more than a misstep. Like activate some system which is potentionally
dangerous for Russia.
Or in different NATO/ US bases elsewhere in continental Europe.
"to provoke an irreparable fissure between Russia and the EU, under NATO auspices"
"When all fails, myth prevails. Enter the US Army occupying parts of Europe to "defend" it
against – who else? – those pesky Russians."
This sounds to be the real goal.
For long since the US is jealous to Europe as it became more and more equal in economic and
political power, and prevail better even with this "global pandemic".
EU wants more independence, US wants it`s colony to more obidient and follow commands.
If not just occupy, but "let" Europe partly destroyed even better: the treat of dominance
reduced, and again can be the "nice savior" who helps and "brings democracy".
So seems far too real in the Ukrainian conflict Ukraine is just a side character.
Good point. They simply can't "win" anything by attacking.
The (((US))) will provide plenty of encouragement and support as long as they get
mountains of Ukrainian corpses in return. Those corpses can then be photographed and the
photos broadcast all over the world as "proof" that Putin is Hitler. Basically, Ukrainians
are being funnelled into the meat grinder for a globohmo psyop opportunity. What a way to
die...
Are you referring to the Ukraine fiasco? Would that it were so that it was just a
distraction. Just apply some reverse engineering to how Germany and Russia have a pretext to
link up energy-wise when Ukraine was a perfectly serviceable transit point until NeoCon filth
started working their magic.
Indeed, let's not worry: German Chancellor Merkel spoke to President Putin yesterday and
apparently told him she wanted to see immediate de-escalation or else she might not sell Russia
any German cars; or buy Russian vaccine; or complete Nord-Stream 2 and tie the German economy
into Russian gas supplies. Isn't realpolitik a German word originally?
"Destiny guides our fortunes more favourably than we could have expected. Look there,
Sancho Panza, my friend, and see those thirty or so wild giants, with whom I intend to do
battle and kill each and all of them, so with their stolen booty we can begin to enrich
ourselves. This is noble, righteous warfare, for it is wonderfully useful to God to have such
an evil race wiped from the face of the earth."
"What giants?" asked Sancho Panza.
"The ones you can see over there," answered his master, "with the huge arms, some of which
are very nearly two leagues long."
"Now look, your grace," said Sancho, "what you see over there aren't giants, but
windmills, and what seems to be arms are just their sails, that go around in the wind and
turn the millstone."
"Obviously," replied Don Quixote, "you don't know much about adventures."
Or labour vs. capital; or realpolitik. But Happy Friday!
GreatCaesar'sGhost 1 hour ago
No nato troops will ever set foot in Ukraine. They're trying to pressure Russia into doing
something so they can force the Germans to stop nordstream. The Ukrainians can't win here and
they're being used. Not good.
USAllDay 56 minutes ago
Germans need the gas and Russia needs the revenue. These are facts that can not
change.
GreatCaesar'sGhost 53 minutes ago
US has gas to sell. Greater Israel and their Saudi partners believe that after they
overthrow Assad they will have gas to sell. I'm not sure the constantly virtue signaling
German government will buy Russian gas if there's a war.
BeePee 43 minutes ago
Russia already sells gas. This will continue. Mistake to destablize Russia's economy.
GreatCaesar'sGhost 53 minutes ago
US has gas to sell. Greater Israel and their Saudi partners believe that after they
overthrow Assad they will have gas to sell.
I'm not sure the constantly virtue signaling German government will buy Russian gas if
there's a war.
land_of_the_few 51 minutes ago (Edited) remove link
They should just mock them mercilessly.
Formation flypasts with rainbow colored smoke, Village People blasting from frigates
buzxing them, that kind of thing.
A senior official from Nord Stream 2 AG, the project company leading the Nord Stream 2 Russia to Germany natural gas
pipeline project,
has
reported
an uptick in "provocative" activity from warships and planes in the
area where the pipeline is being built
.
"Higher activity of naval vessels, airplanes and helicopters and civilian vessels of foreign states is observed in the work
area after restarted construction of the offshore segment of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, whose
actions
are often clearly provocative
," said Nord Stream AG official Andrei Minin,
according
to the Russian news agency TASS
.
Above: the pipe-laying vessel Fortuna, which is operated by the Russian company KVT-RUS
and recently targeted by US sanctions. Image via Reuters
Minin said a 1.5-mile safety zone is established around the construction area where vessels are not supposed to enter.
"Nevertheless, naval vessels of foreign countries are constantly registered near service ships performing work," he said.
He added that a Polish antisubmarine warfare airplane is
"regularly flying around
the work area at a small height and closely to the pipelay vessel."
Minin said in one provocation,
an unidentified submarine was above surface within
one mile of the pipeclay vessel Fortuna
, a ship that was
hit
with US sanctions on January 19th.
Minin said the activity indicates "obviously planned and prepared provocations."
Besides warships and planes, he said fishing vessels have also come dangerously close to the construction area.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been in the crosshairs of the US for years, but despite sanctions and threats, Nord Stream
AG reported on Thursday
that
the project is now 95 percent complete
. Construction restarted in December 2020 after being suspended due to threats of
US sanctions.
Although it's not clear if the US is involved in these provocations, it is likely. Washington seems willing to take extreme
measures to
stop
the project and is
threatening to sanction its ally Germany
. Besides
the US, another country keen to stop the project is Ukraine,
which
stands to lose up to $3 billion
a year in gas transportation fees if the pipeline is complete.
The original Nord Stream consists of two lines that run from Vyborg, Russia, to Lubmin, Germany, near Greifswald. The new
project would add two more lines, doubling the amount of natural gas Russia could export to Germany.
play_arrow
Be of Good Cheer
1 hour ago
$3
billion loss to the Biden Crime Family. No wonder he wants to stop NS2.
NoPension
1 hour ago
^^^^^!!!
Pair Of Dimes Shift
45 minutes ago
10% to the big guy would be $300M.
Damn right the big guy's handlers are pissed.
Rid'n Dirty
1 hour ago
The
US spends over $1 trillion on "defense" with over 800 bases worldwide, yet we have no control over who
illegally takes up residence here. America has become an ugly hegemon run by Wall Street and other
corporate whores. Almost 2/3rds of the world is under some type of US sanction designed to wreck
economies and starve innocent people (Houthis, Syrians and Iranians).
Let's see if Germany can do what's best for its economy for the first time since 1945.
Based Fren
1 hour ago
It's so tiresome. We just have to stick our finger in everyone else's business.
naro
1 hour ago
Have you heard of the MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX. Wars is their oxygen.....they are looking for
wars wherever they can find it.
ManOnFirst
59 minutes ago
a
Polish fishing vessel rammed a construction ship and blamed a faulty engine for the incident. I really
hate the Poles. They are the whiniest, most cowardly country in the world. They lament the fall of
their empire 1000 years ago and think they could still be a superpower if only the big, bad Russians
weren't so mean. Oh, and the big, bad Germans too.
SoDamnMad
27 minutes ago
I'm
surprised the Russians didn't throw a 3 liter gasoline jug with a burning rag taped to it down on that
fishing vessel. Your telling me no steerage and no engine control. Two can play this game. Poles best
not try to lay any communication cables in the next 20 years.
Games Without Frontiers
1 hour ago
(Edited)
Globalists from the US doing everything they can to prevent a more independent EU. The further away you
can get from a dying and dangerous empire the better.
2banana
1 hour ago
Established by whom?
Oh,
you just made that sh!t up in international waters in one of the most heavily used trade routes in the
world.
Minin said a 1.5-mile safety zone is established around the construction area where vessels are not
supposed to enter. "Nevertheless, naval vessels of foreign countries are constantly registered near
service ships performing work," he said.
Games Without Frontiers
1 hour ago
It's international waters but safety zones are always established on this type of industrial project,
it's hard to enforce in open waters but the West looks like a bunch of tools as usual.
not-me---it-was-the-dog
43 minutes ago
(Edited)
remove
link
....
Shipping
and shipping lanes In Danish waters, the proposed NSP2 route will run inside and along the TSS Bornholmsgat for
approximately 42 km close to the Swedish EEZ. The TSS Bornholmsgat carries most of the ship traffic to/from the
Baltic Sea and experiences over 50,000 ship passages per year. The proposed NSP2 route additionally crosses the
TSS Adlergrund in the Danish and German EEZs, which has approximately 7,000 ship movements per year. Safety
exclusion zones will be implemented around slow-moving construction vessels. Only vessels involved in the
construction of NSP2 will be allowed inside the safety zone; therefore, all other vessels not involved in
construction activities will be requested to plan their journeys around the safety zone. The shipping lanes
crossed by the proposed NSP2 route in Danish waters provide sufficient space and water depth for ships to plan
their journey and safely navigate around possible temporary obstructions. The impact on ship traffic associated
with the imposition of a safety zone is assessed to be minor and associated with local and temporary changes to
the traffic scheme. Therefore, it is assessed that there will be no significant transboundary impacts on Baltic
Sea ship traffic caused by the NSP2 project in Danish waters.
so....umm....since the work is being done in danish waters, well, gosh, i would guess the exclusion zones are set
up with......wait for it......danish authorities. and the last bits in german waters will require german
authorities to set up the exclusion zone.
Ukraine gets 3B a year in transit fees for Russian gas...
rejectnumbskull
15 minutes ago
Besides the US, another country keen to
stop
the
project is Ukraine,
which
stands to lose up to $3 billion
a year in gas transportation fees if the pipeline is complete.
Did
you not read this sentence in the article correctly?
Nice work on pulling all the puzzle pieces together, b!
The really big problem will be weaning the Outlaw US Empire from its addiction to
Unilateralism, which is its primary mode of operation aside from a very brief interlude when
FDR was POTUS, devised the UN and its Charter, and got the Senate to ratify it so it would
become an integral part of the USA's fundamental law of the land.
All one need do to see the gravity of the bolded text is to examine the Outlaw US Empire's
behavior since FDR died--The USA immediately transformed into the Outlaw US Empire on 22
October 1945 when the UN Charter came into full force and the Empire was already in grave
violation of its fundamentals.
That those millions of violations have never seen the inside of a courtroom doesn't mean
they never occurred or aren't now happening globally.
"Nord Stream AG Says Warships, Submarines and Helicopters Tried to Disrupt Pipeline's
Construction":
"However, it seems that in March threats to the pipeline multiplied and became more
'real'.
"The construction site of Nord Stream 2 has been suffering harassment by various vessels
and aircraft in recent months, which nearly led to damage to the pipeline itself, according
to Nord Stream AG representative Andrey Minin. He stressed that the disturbances were
'clearly planned and thoroughly prepared provocations,' devised to stop the joint
Russian-European project in its tracks ." [My Emphasis]
Unilateral Act of War anyone?!! Yes, its the Poles once again.
IMO, it's sad b omitted mentioning the newly formed Friends of the UN Charter Group in his
article since it aims at drowning the "Unilateral, rules based international order" once and
for all time. My promotion of it isn't going to be enough. If all but the Neoliberal nations
become members, then they can jointly aver that there's only one system of international Law
and its based on the UN Charter and all relevant treaties thus shutting up the Outlaw US
Empire regardless its protests. Of course, a movement within the Empire that says the same as
the Friends would go a long ways to getting us where we as humans want to go to--a peaceful
planet that's concerned about the wellbeing of humans and all they need for support instead
of making the rich ever richer through the terror of unremitting Class War.
And if you don't think that War isn't based on Terror, then you haven't seen migrant
families busted up with the little kids being kidnapped and all put into concentration camps.
( China is
beginning to bark up that very inhuman tree watered so well by the Outlaw US Empire.)
"As it stands, Russia is very much focused on limitless possibilities in Southwest Asia,
as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made it clear in the 10th Middle East conference at the
Valdai club [Link at Original]. The Hegemon's treats on multiple fronts – Ukraine,
Belarus, Syria, Nord Stream 2 – pale in comparison."
Awhile ago, I posted the following acutely correct adage: The USA treats business as war,
while treating war as business. I added what Coolidge was misquoted as saying in 1925--The
business of America is business (He actually said, "the chief business of the American people
is business.") So when the POTUS says its just business, you should prepare for war.
Back to the linked article. While reading it ought to be easy to see why the BRI
interconnectivity is seen as a huge threat to the two Outlaw Maritime Empires--UK/US--who
initially set forth the parameters of the Great Game. (BTW,
Lavrov's Great Game program interview English transcript is now complete.) They have no
seat at the table whatsoever. You'll also see why the Outlaw US Empire will try to remain in
Afghanistan forever as well as the reason why it can't admit the real reason for being
there--to interdict the BRI and the development boom it promises to bring to a great many
impoverished people throughout Eurasia. Talk about Human Rights!
But it looks like all the Empire's efforts will amount to little more than a mosquito
attacking an elephant for there's no way it can stop BRI or Eurasian integration; at best, it
can merely delay it and earn the enmity of the planet, including its own people. Clearly,
India will cease its role in the Quad as staying locks it out from what it needs
most--development that uplifts its impoverished tens of millions. And the loss of India means
the certain loss of the Great Game for the Outlaw Empire.
In the grand scheme of things, Ukraine is merely a tsetse fly as is NATO ultimately. The
real prize lies with the geoeconomic riches BRI and Eurasian Integration will generate and
being a partner with it, not an adversary.
More content below More content below More content below More content below More content below
More content below More content below More content below
BERLIN, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Gas contributes only a fraction of Germany's energy consumption,
and Russian gas only a fraction of that, so it is wrong to say that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline
will make Germany dependent on Russian energy, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said.
Asked about the flagship Kremlin project, which has been heavily criticised by the United
States and some European countries, Scholz on Monday restated the German government's position
that the pipeline was a private investment and should not be the target of U.S. sanctions.
The poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, blamed by most Western governments on
Russian state actors, has led to renewed calls for the nearly complete pipeline, built by
state-owned Gazprom, to be cancelled.
Critics of the pipeline say it increases Germany's reliance on Russian energy and deprives
transit countries Poland and Ukraine of crucial leverage over the giant country to their east.
(Reporting by Thomas Escritt; Editing by Maria Sheahan)
Germany is showing signs of an independent Russia policy. The main issue between the United
States, Europe, and Russia now is the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would carry gas from Russia
to Germany. The Biden Administration may impose
sanctions on companies that help build it, which
risks a blowup with Berlin .
Most Republicans want
even sterner measures . Senator Ted Cruz is
delaying confirmation of some of President Biden's officials unless he takes action.
Hostility towards Russia is one of the few issues that unite Republicans and Democrats
– along with support for
citizenship for illegal immigrants ,
interference in Syria, keeping
troops in Afghanistan , and thwarting
China . We can't count on Republicans or Democrats to stand up for Americans, but we can
count on support for invading the world and inviting the world. This combination of an
aggressive foreign policy and indifference towards citizens is why some call the current regime
the
Globalist American Empire (GAE). It may be based in Washington DC, but it has nothing to do
with the historic American nation or its interests.
However, what I call the " American Paradox "
may doom this "empire." It is run by people who seem to care nothing for the country; the
empire is built on sand.
...., the US neurotic dynamic is to escalate blindly until it achieves control. This is
the dynamic that must be defeated.
Yes that's problem all right, but can you ever defeat that dynamic given that the gorilla
owns 10,000 nukes and has no moral qualms whatsoever of using them? Until a near perfect
anti-nuke defense system is developed I surmise the world would just have to live with, and
get used to, the juvenile antics of King Kong because it has stated time and again it would
escalate all the way up to using its nukes, because that's what they are for according
to a former Sec. of State.
I'm a pessimist on this issue. I'm afraid we'll just have to endure and live with a wild
beast for a while to come.
i've been a reader of moa for quite a few years now, but never contributed to the forum.
mostly because after a while i found what i wanted to say anyway, and why pile on?
I really enjoy the civility of the forum, and it's internationality. And of course b's
insights. as a German myself I share many points of view with him in matters i have knowledge
in, or think that i do.
For example i think that trump sure might be seen as a disaster by many, but it was a gift
to Europe, and Germany in particular, because he opened the eyes of many, many people here
who for decades thought murrica is our friend, our big brother, who will always protect us
from the evil of the world - namely communism, Russia and lately china. a majority of the
people here, as well as in the rest of the so called "western world" have been brainwashed
for about 7 decades to think that way, even when America committed the most obvious, heinous,
horrible crimes against humanity and our civilization as a whole.
there was always a spin, "human rights", "democracy", "free trade" and so on, values that
had to be "defended" - when in reality it was always an offensive aggression or even a
"pre-emptive strike". people just swallowed what the media fed them and went on with their
daily chores.
Trump changed that, suddenly the ugly side of the empire became visible, and i will always
be grateful for that. because now it cannot be hidden anymore. it wasn't just the unruly
behaviour of a "new rich" and uneducated bully who accidentally became president.
politically, the general attitude was always the same, trump only worded it much more
obvious, making it harder for politicians and media to spin. that's why our politicians and
media (for the most part fed by trans-atlantic "think tanks") hated him almost more than
Americans themselves - he made their lies obvious and transparent. if it wasn't so sad, it
sometimes was almost funny to see them squirm, having to explain why our friend and protector
suddenly became so selfish and hostile.
All of them welcomed of course the new Harris administration, being so progressive, just
and friendly again - only to witness a change of paradigm they probably didn't even think
trump was capable of, or willing to: i think in later years, this week will mark the
"official" beginning of the new cold war era. this behaviour against Russia and china was not
a slap, but a punch in the face and will NEVER be forgiven nor forgotten. the only question
for europe is: does it finally have the balls to emancipate and stand up against the bully?
or will it submit and become a collateral damage of it's downfall? in form of a nuclear
wasteland maybe?
I think that Nord stream II is a turning point. If Germany caves in here, there's little
hope to get rid of the leash for it and the whole of Europe.
If it stands tall, europe might become a buffer instead of a frontline. knowing and seeing
our politicians, i'd say it doesn't look good.
"... Nord Stream 2 is of vital importance to Germany's energy security. The German public was rather hostile to President Trump and Biden's victory was seen with relief. But when it sees how Biden pursues the same policies, and with a similar tone, it will turn on him ..."
"... Since Washington is now in conflict with a goodly part of the public it sees that creating foreign policy crises and enemies as an excellent course of action to shore up support. Americans are always ready to react against enemies no matter how slender the proof of the wrongdoing ascribed to the enemy. There is never a penalty to pay for lying in the US if you are in the mainstream media or in the political arena. Since the CIA controls much of the European media and their ruling class it would take quite a lot for Europeans to drop their status as vassal states. ..."
Nord Stream 2 is of vital importance to Germany's energy security. The German public
was rather hostile to President Trump and Biden's victory was seen with relief. But when it
sees how Biden pursues the same policies, and with a similar tone, it will turn on him .
<-- b
However "hostile", Germany contributed to uni-lateral Trumpian sanctions, and so far,
North Stream 2 is the only beacon of independence. Take Ukraine: Germany and France form half
of Normandy Four, and provided name for Steinmeier formula. Ukraine resolutely resists
proceeding with any obligations under that formula. Germany is silent on that and support
annual extensions of sanctions, not to mention sanctions on Syria, Venezuela and whatever EU
sanctions.
Syria is an interesting example. It could be actually popular among German voters to
facilitate reconstruction in that country and return of the refugees to their homeland. Iran
and Russia are potentially good customers for German industry. Independence of German banks
and other companies from whimsical sanctions from USA would help too.
Seemingly, ingrained masochism is hard to overcome.
Thanks for posting Pepe's comments, some of which are in his current article I linked to
on the open thread. In my comment related to Pepe's article I noted his excerpt of Chinese
academic Jisi and this specific part:
"the Americans are eager to deal with problems before they are ready to improve the
relationship."
That observation is consistent with that of an entity that only wants its orders obeyed
and seeks no relationship or friendship with any other entity since it sees itself as Top
Dog, and #1 in every way. As with the Nord Stream project, we see the Gangster mentality--Do
as I say or else!
Not only does the Emperor have no clothes or much of a working memory, he's got erectile
disfunction too that's well beyond the ability of Viagra to fix.
So here we have Blinken, Winken and Nod providing direction for failing empire
Blinken is obvious
Winken is that behind the scenes, wink, wink, nod, nod (there ain't no class structure here)
type VP and
Nod is the new normal as US President.
I am sure they will try to take America to new places, yet to be dreamt of....will the
brainwashed of the West follow?
About Germany and Nord Stream II.....To a degree that I am not sure of, Germany is like
Japan, a fully owned colony of empire....this may be the time that the Germany nut gets
cracked wide open....interesting times indeed.
Where are the details of Blinken telling China how to behave? I can hardly wait for the
next act of Blinken, Winken and Nod
"Why, after so many bad words towards it, would China help the U.S. with solving the North
Korea problem? It has zero incentive to do so."
This (as well as the Germany/NS2 thing) sounds like a rather naive view. Western headlines
are for western internal consumption. And what's happening behind the scene, what incentives
are offered and what threats are made in exchange for what specific actions, we simply don't
know.
I notice a lot of accusations that Washington is "stupid" but that's not true. You have to
understand how Washington works before you make such statements. The Deep State knows that it
can control the minds of most Americans by inventing "truths" without any need to prove
anything.
Since Washington is now in conflict with a goodly part of the public it sees that
creating foreign policy crises and enemies as an excellent course of action to shore up
support. Americans are always ready to react against enemies no matter how slender the proof
of the wrongdoing ascribed to the enemy. There is never a penalty to pay for lying in the US
if you are in the mainstream media or in the political arena. Since the CIA controls much of
the European media and their ruling class it would take quite a lot for Europeans to drop
their status as vassal states.
Remember, Washington can throw endless amounts of money around and fund everything from
terrorism, crime waves, sexual indiscretions a la Epstein (the CIA had it's own whorehouse
which my father pointed out to me decades ago--it was in Roslyn Virginia and it used underage
girls and boys to improve its soft-power).
So far, no one has paid a penalty for lying or corrupt practices in Washington if they
were "made" men or women (Trump never got that far).
As long as Europe, Japan and some other countries continue to be vassal states the US can
and will get away with anything. Nordstream 2 is the issue that may change all that. Once
Germany rebels the rest may follow.
germany breaking rank will be first big turn in nato. nordstream is a non negotiable issue
for germany. meanwhile the US is not agreement capable. on anything and the vaccine hoarding
is a big F U in EU to so called allies. all the pieces are set. just need time to let it all
play out. the global south woke to it before the slower europeans can see the world anew.
as for the US china alaska meeting, it does seem to me that the US administration and deep
state or whatever you want to call it are not coordinated or fully aligned with each other.
the timing of the US sanctions on hk officials seem designed to thwart any possible dialogue.
as if some elements are working to ensure the meeting resolves nothing.
the china global times calls this move the US stick that comes down before any negotiation
and says it's a continuation of trump era tactics. maybe. I see it more as designed to make
the meeting fail instead of designed to achieve anything such as extracting concessions from
china. not being agreement capable because it is sabotaged from within.
but at this pt in the crumbling empire it is perhaps foolish to analyze its tactics in
terms of means and ends. its only 'rationale' at this pt is to just keep doing what it's
doing. sanctions wars threats coercion and moral grandstanding. it only knows it is right and
there is nothing else besides.
About Vlora to be an Alternative to NS2. Just a Fake from Radio France International, paid
for by french gov. France is now full play in US hand. Macron want NS2 [and soon NS1..] to be
shut down.
Nord Stream 1 is 55 Md.M3/y
Nord Stream 2 too.
110Md.m3/year
The biggest ship to deliver US GNL in Europe is 260.000 m3. 1m3 GNL is 600m3 natural
gaz.
It's me or my computer? 3 ship per day? How many ship necessary? 60? 80?
Not an economy, a nightmare.
American capitalism was plunder and is now parasitism.
In order to get energy, Germany need Russia. Nord Stream is a direct tie in order to avoid
"reliable" intermediate like Ukraine or Poland.
In order to get everything under control US need [reliable intermediate] to cut the tie
between [oil/gas fields] from Middleeast or Russia and Germany, the sole country in Europe
with Great industrial/technical capacity.
"Our calls for vigilance and boldness were heard in the US Congress, which pressed on
with measures designed to stop this dangerous, divisive project. We call on US
President Joe Biden to use all means at his disposal to prevent the project from
completion", the pair added.
They think they have a voice in the US Congress? Should apply for Statehood then.
The ministers suggested that if completed, the project will add to Russia's drive "to try
to convince the Ukrainian public that the West doesn't care about its own principles, and
ultimately, about the security and prosperity of Ukraine".
But wasn't the critique against socialism from the Soviet space that it was "utopian",
i.e. that it put its "principles" (ideology) before economic fundamentals?
Poland, Ukraine Urge Biden to Do His Best 'to Put an End' to Nord Stream 2 Project
vk @ 109. Congress of the USA to interfere with the completion of Russian-German Nord stream
II project because the LNG cartel in USA governed Texas, Lousisana , Oregon want to require
every man women and child in Europe to pay monopoly prices for LNG. As I see it failure of
Nord Stream II will be extremely dangerous to the survival of the solar and wind renewable
energy efforts; its a do it or die situation for dominate energy is the goal of the LNG
cartel...
Incisive and grim. As Mr. Putin observed, Presidents come and go but the policy stays the
same. But wait! I think there's more
WRT Iran. Iran recently announced that their sales of oil had increased substantially,
without, of course identifying how much or with whom. If they are doing these transactions in
national currencies, there's nothing other than piracy that the US can do, making the US more
dependent on our vassals to carry our water here. But
In other news, the EU has decided to stop supporting Guido. If some of the OAS vassals get
the idea that they, too, can stand on at least their two knees, maybe Mr. Maduro can get a
bit more of a break. The US is sure to be wroth.
PACE decided to pass a non-binding resolution of more sanctions against Russia for the
Navalny fiasco while Frau Merkel (and her likely successor) remains clear that Nord Stream II
must be finished. The German FM pointed out that they could face serious court battles since
the Pipeline consortium which includes other EU countries has all the permits they
require.
The results are in aaaaannnnnddd – thanx to Covid, for the first time in history
China had more Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) than the US. The US better hope that doesn't
keep up ..
@42 I'm sure Maduro would take dollars.....or gold. Of course buying Venezuelan oil from an
evil brutal socialist dictator would be a major climb down.
The USA doesn't pay for oil or gas. It takes over the mining company, demands the project
be funded by local or national borrowing from USA banks with sovereign guarantees, sells the
product to a separate US company that pays peanuts to the miner and then onsells for a major
markup (transfer pricing). Its called modern day stealing of other countries resources.
Look at the report on keystone that you cited at #39 where
The Canadian province that invested $1.1 billion of taxpayers' money in the controversial
Keystone XL project is now considering the sale of pipe and materials to try to recoup some
funds.
"If the project ends, there would be assets that could be sold, such as enormous
quantities of pipe," Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said in a press conference Monday.
Meanwhile the directors and shareholders got their fat checks and dividends from the
municipal loan funds ;)
The USA will not pay in gold until it is on its knees - it simply will not pay. See how
the USA 'bought' Tik Tok: blatant extortion/theft. The same as was done to Japan's high tech
in the 60's 70's or whenever. Thieves.
Policy to stop Nord Stream 2 will continue under Biden, although here we're told
Biden will extend New START Treaty by the same person, Biden's nominee for Secretary of
State, Antony Blinken.
Defense nominee Austin was also covered in this article where we can see he reads from
the same playbook as those who went before him. So it seems like continuity of its dystopic
imperial policy will be what we see from the Outlaw US Empire, although we'll soon see if
that also applies to Trump's Farewell boast that he was proud not to have started any "new"
wars.
@42 I'm sure Maduro would take dollars.....or gold. Of course buying Venezuelan oil from an
evil brutal socialist dictator would be a major climb down.
The USA doesn't pay for oil or gas. It takes over the mining company, demands the project
be funded by local or national borrowing from USA banks with sovereign guarantees, sells the
product to a separate US company that pays peanuts to the miner and then onsells for a major
markup (transfer pricing). Its called modern day stealing of other countries resources.
Look at the report on keystone that you cited at #39 where
The Canadian province that invested $1.1 billion of taxpayers' money in the controversial
Keystone XL project is now considering the sale of pipe and materials to try to recoup some
funds.
"If the project ends, there would be assets that could be sold, such as enormous
quantities of pipe," Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said in a press conference Monday.
Meanwhile the directors and shareholders got their fat checks and dividends from the
municipal loan funds ;)
The USA will not pay in gold until it is on its knees - it simply will not pay. See how
the USA 'bought' Tik Tok: blatant extortion/theft. The same as was done to Japan's high tech
in the 60's 70's or whenever. Thieves.
Hi b, Jim Kunstler has an interesting piece this week on the impact of EROI on the US
recovery or lack thereof in the US shake sector. Just not enough cheap energy to get their
economy going. Will Germany hold up against Trumps last minute sanctions against
Nordstream if Biden maintains them? If Germany doesn't won't that put Germany in the same
over expensive boat as US and lead to economic stagnation? Especially if all Russia's
cheap energy ends up in China, which it almost certainly will.
"Why do the USA, UK and Europe so hate Russia? How it is that Western antipathy, once
thought due to anti-Communism, could be so easily revived over a crisis in distant Ukraine,
against a Russia no longer communist? Why does the West accuse Russia of empire-building,
when 15 states once part of the defunct Warsaw Pact are now part of NATO, and NATO troops now
flank the Russian border? These are only some of the questions Creating Russophobia
iinvestigates. Mettan begins by showing the strength of the prejudice against Russia through
the Western response to a series of events: the Uberlingen mid-air collision, the Beslan
hostage- taking, the Ossetia War, the Sochi Olympics and the crisis in Ukraine. He then
delves into the historical, religious, ideological and geopolitical roots of the detestation
of Russia in various European nations over thirteen centuries since Charlemagne competed with
Byzantium for the title of heir to the Roman Empire. Mettan examines the geopolitical
machinations expressed in those times through the medium of religion, leading to the great
Christian schism between Germanic Rome and Byzantium and the European Crusades against
Russian Orthodoxy. This history of taboos, prejudices and propaganda directed against the
Orthodox Church provides the mythic foundations that shaped Western disdain for contemporary
Russia. From the religious and imperial rivalry created by Charlemagne and the papacy to the
genesis of French, English, German and then American Russophobia, the West has been engaged
in more or less violent hostilities against Russia for a thousand years. Contemporary
Russophobia is manufactured through the construction of an anti-Russian discourse in the
media and the diplomatic world, and the fabrication and demonization of The Bad Guy, now
personified by Vladimir Putin. Both feature in the meta-narrative, the mythical framework of
the ferocious Russian bear ruled with a rod of iron by a vicious president. A synthetic
reading of all these elements is presented in the light of recent events and in particular of
the Ukrainian crisis and the recent American elections, showing how all the resources of the
West's soft power have been mobilized to impose the tale of bad Russia dreaming of global
conquest. "By hating Russia, one hurts oneself. Swiss journalist Guy Mettan pieces together
the reasons of detestation of the Kremlin and of a rhetoric that goes back to Napoleonic
times despite the long list of aggressions perpetrated in the meantime by the West. And he
explains why pushing Moscow toward Asia is a very serious error." -Panorama, Italy "Like
Saddam Hussein's mythical weapons of massive destruction in 2003, Peter the Great's fake will
has been used to justify the aggressions and invasions that the Europeans, and now the
Americans, still carry out against Russia." -Liberation, France
"Not at all, the center of russophobia will now be Germany. In is not a surprise that
Russia recently declared that the center of russophobia in the EU are now France and
Germany."
Nord Stream 2 will be completed contrary to the opinions of four to five commenters on
here. This is Germany & Russia that you are talking about. Sanctions did not stop the
Crimean bridge. It makes no economic sense to deny European/West Asian (Russian produced)
Liquid natural gas in order to subsidise 'transit fees' to Ukraine. The U.S.Congress'
sanctions here are untenible, but don't expect Germany & Russia to publish how they will
do it until completion.
Reuters gleeful that Gazprom announced the possibility Nord Stream 2 won't be completed
due to "political pressure." But such a warning is part of all standard potential risks
announcements accompanying any prospectus--a fact Reuters ignored--which in this case is for
the issuance of Eurobonds, although I question the judgement in making them dollar
denominated.
Its not contrary to my opinion, but you appear to be young and naive person. There is
nothing new in that German policy, for example it supported the building of pipelines from
the USSR over President Reagan objections. Which does not mean that it wasn't enemy of the
USSR - its destruction was the key for taking control of Eastern Europe and turning it into
Germany's Latin America.
Someone can hate you and may want to make money at the same time too. But as soon as there
is weakness, they will pounce on you and stab you in the back.
As for the pipeline, it will remain under a puppet russian government. No loss there
too.
What the EU wants is to subdue Russia and later dismember it, taking hold of the
population and natural resources.
In the mean time, there is nothing wrong with making some money too. As the EU worships a
good living too.
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President Donald Trump has delivered his "parting gift" to the Moscow-led Nord Stream 2 gas
pipeline, with newly announced sanctions targeting a pipe-laying vessel and companies involved
in the multinational project.
The specialist ship concerned, named, 'Fortuna,' and oil tanker 'Maksim Gorky', as well as
two Russian firms, KVT-Rus and Rustanker, were blacklisted on Tuesday under CAATSA (Countering
America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) as part of Washington's economic war on Moscow.
The same legislation had been previously used by the US to target numerous Russian officials
and enterprises.
Russian energy giant Gazprom warned its investors earlier on Tuesday that Nord Stream 2
could be suspended or even canceled if more US restrictions are introduced.
However, Moscow has assured its partners that it intends to complete the project despite
"harsh pressure on the part of Washington," according to Kremlin press secretary Dmitry
Peskov. Reacting to the new package of sanctions on Tuesday, Peskov called them
"unlawful."
Meanwhile, the EU said it is in no rush to join the Washington-led sanction war on Nord
Stream 2. EU foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, said that the bloc is not going to resist
the construction of the project.
"Because we're talking about a private project, we can't hamper the operations of those
companies if the German government agrees to it," Borrell said Tuesday.
Nord Stream 2 is an offshore gas pipeline, linking Russia and Germany with aim of providing
cheaper energy to Central European customers. Under the agreement between Moscow and Berlin, it
was to be launched in mid-2020, but the construction has been delayed due to strong opposition
from Washington.
The US, which is hoping to sell its Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) to Europe, has hit the
project with several rounds of sanctions over scarcely credible claims that it could undermine
European energy security. Critics say the real intent is to force EU members to buy from
American companies.
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Fatback33 4 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 11:20 AM
The group that owns Washington makes the foreign policy. That policy is not for the benefit
of the people.
DukeLeo Fatback33 1 hour ago 19 Jan, 2021 02:06 PM
That is correct. The private banks and corporations in the US are very upset about Nord
Stream - 2, as they want Europe to buy US gas at double price. Washington thus introduces
additional political gangsterism in the shape of new unilateral sanctions which have no merit
in international law.
noremedy 4 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 11:22 AM
Is the U.S. so stupid that they do not realize that they are isolating themselves? Russia has
developed SPFS, China CIPS, together with Iran, China and Russia are further developing a
payment transfer system. Once in place and functioning this system will replace the western
SWIFT system for international payment transfers. It will be the death knell for the US
dollar. 327 million Americans are no match for the rest of the billions of the world's
population. The next decade will see the total debasement of the US monetary system and the
fall from power of the decaying and crumbling in every way U.S.A.
Hanonymouse noremedy 2 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 01:37 PM
They don't care. They have the most advanced military in the world. Might makes right, even
today.
Shelbouy 3 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 12:25 PM
Russia currently supplies over 50% of the natural gas consumed by The EU. Germany and Italy
are the largest importers of Russian natural gas. What is the issue of sanctions stemming
from and why are the Americans doing this? A no brainer question I suppose. It's to make more
money than the other supplier, and exert political pressure and demand obedience from its
lackey. Germany.
David R. Evans Shelbouy 2 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 01:58 PM
Russia and Iran challenge perpetual US wars for Israel's Oded Yinon Plan. Washington is
Israel-controlled territory.
Jewel Gyn 4 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 11:34 AM
Sanctions work both ways. With the outgoing Trump administration desperately laying mines for
Biden, we await how sleepy Joe is going to mend strayed ties with EU.
Count_Cash 4 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 11:20 AM
The US mafia state continues with the same practices. The dog is barking but the caravan is
going. The counter productiveness of sanctions always shows through in the end! I am sure
with active efforts of Germany and Russia against US mafia oppression that a blowback will be
felt by the US over time!
Dachaguy 4 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 11:24 AM
This is an act of war against Germany. NATO should respond and act against the aggressor,
America.
xyz47 Dachaguy 42 minutes ago 19 Jan, 2021 03:20 PM
NATO is run by the US...
lovethy Dachaguy 2 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 01:04 PM
NATO has no separate existence. It's the USA's arm of aggression, suppression and domination.
Germany after WWII is an occupied country of USA. Thousand of armed personnel stationed in
Germany enforcing that occupation.
Chaz Dadkhah 3 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 12:19 PM
Further proof that Trump is no friend of Russia and is in a rush to punish them while he
still has power. If it was the swamp telling him to do that, like his supporters suggest,
then they would have waited till their man Biden came in to power in less than 24 hours to do
it. Wake up!
Mac Kio 3 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 12:34 PM
USA hates fair competition. USA ignores all WTO rules.
Russkiy09 2 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 01:33 PM
By whining and not completing in the face of US, Russia is losing credibility. They should
not have delayed to mobilize the pipe laying vessel and other equipment for one whole year.
They should have mobilized in three months and finished by now. Same happens when Jewtin does
not shoot down Zio air force bombing Syria everyday. But best option should have been to tell
European vassals that "if you can, take our gas. But we will charge the highest amount and
sell as much as we want, exclude Russophobic Baltic countries and Poland and neo-vassal
Ukraine. Pay us not in your ponzi paper money but real goods and services or precious metals
or other commodities or our own currency Ruble." I so wish I could be the President of
Russia. Russians deserve to be as wealthy as the Swiss or SIngapore etc., not what they are
getting. Their leaders should stand up for their interest. And stop empowering the greedy
merchantalist Chinese and brotherhood Erdogan.
BlackIntel 1 hour ago 19 Jan, 2021 02:27 PM
America i captured by private interest; this project threatens American private companies
hence the government is forced to protect capitalism. This is illegal
Ohhho 3 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 12:15 PM
That project was a mistake from the start: Russia should distance itself from the Evil
empire, EU included! Stop wasting time and resources on trying to please the haters and
keeping them more competitive with cheaper Russian natural gas: focus on real partners and
potential allies elsewhere!
butterfly123 2 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 01:58 PM
I have said it before that part of the problem is at the door of the policy-makers and
politicians in Russia. Pipeline project didn't spring up in the minds of politicians in
Russia one morning, presumably. There should have been foresight, detailed planning, and
opportunity creation for firms in Russia to acquire the skill-set and resources to advance
this project. Not doing so has come to bite Russia hard and painful. Lessons learnt I hope Mr
President!
jakro 4 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 11:37 AM
Good news. The swamp is getting deeper and bigger.
hermaflorissen 4 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 11:49 AM
Trump finally severed my expectations for the past 4 years. He should indeed perish.
ariadnatheo 1 hour ago 19 Jan, 2021 03:06 PM
That is one Trump measure that will not be overturned by the Senile One. They will need to
amplify the RussiaRussiaRussia barking and scratching to divert attention from their dealings
with China
Neville52 2 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 02:01 PM
Its time the other nations of the world turned their backs on the US. Its too risky if you
are an international corporation to suddenly have large portions of your income cancelled due
to some crazy politician in the US
5th Eye 2 hours ago 19 Jan, 2021 02:03 PM
From empire to the collapse of empire, US follows UK to the letters. Soon it will be
irrelevant. The only thing that remains for UK is the language. Probably hotdog for the US.
VonnDuff1 1 hour ago 19 Jan, 2021 02:10 PM
The USA Congress and its corrupt foreign policy dictates work to the detriment of Europe and
Russia, while providing no tangible benefits to US states or citizens. So globalist demands
wrapped in the stars & stripes, should be laughed at, by all freedom loving nations.
"... Imagine for a while that Pompeo and Netanyahu were able to ignite the huge conflict with Iran which they have been trying to do for years. The wider Middle East would become a land of ruins, and on top of that we would have also the corona crisis. It would be the end for the Chinese project One belt One road and a very promising beginning for Trump’s programme of “decoupling” from China. The same could happen if we go to a Greek-Turkish war, the most probable result of which is enormous destruction in both states and also in Cyprus. Given the destructive capacity of the Greek and Turkish weapons and the impossibility of destroying them by a surprise first strike, the two countries, if they go to war, risk going back two or three hundred years. A conflict around Iran, or between Greece and Turkey would also put enormous pressure on Russia. ..."
"... Spreading Chaos is another way of staging world war when you cannot use ‘normal’, ‘frontal’ methods of war. The policy of Trump and his allies contributes greatly to preparing for world war by attacking the very institutions of bourgeois democracy, any kind of national or international rule, by attacking the very principles of Logic, Logos and Science, necessary in order to transform human societies into herds of wild animals, in a sui generis repetition of the Nazi experiment. ..."
"... The way to get Greece and Turkey to war is by sending them ‘false signals’, either encouraging and supporting them, or implying a threat from the other country. Somebody was able to persuade Ankara to down the Russian jet in 2015, which was a case of extreme miscalculation. It is easier to make a miscalculation regarding Greece and Turkey, and there is an enormity of contradictory signals emanating from the US and Israel towards the two capitals. ..."
"... PS. The above article provides a possible explanation of the present Greek-Turkish crisis. A second explanation is that big oil multinationals want to provoke a crisis in order to exploit the hydrocarbons of the region, but we have no serious indications that big reserves really exist and are exploitable economically. A third explanation, not mutually excluded from what we have analyzed, is that third forces are trying to provoke a war in order to overthrow Erdogan and also have all the other consequences we described. ..."
Twenty years ago, I was covering the Munich Security Forum as a journalist and I took an interview from Brent Scawcroft,
National Security Adviser for President Bush (the father). I believe he was one of the men who played a huge role in pushing
Boris Yeltsin to the crisis which culminated into the bombing of the Russian parliament in October 1993, thus opening the way to
the biggest looting in the history of mankind, the so-called Russian privatisations. I asked Scawcroft what the US policy
towards Russia and China should be . He answered: “We need to have better relations with Moscow and Beijing, than they can have
between themselves”.
The way for the Empire to dominate in the Eastern Mediterranean, imposing its pax or pushing for war, is by having better
relations with Athens and Ankara than they can have between themselves. Now they don’t have any at all.
Maidan Square, Kiev, 2014
The plane carrying the three EU Foreign Ministers, the French, the German and the Polish, had just taken off from Kiev when
the agreement they had negotiated for a peaceful, negotiated settlement of the Ukrainian crisis collapsed and the carnage began
in the Ukrainian capital. This was followed by the civil war and the unimaginable destruction of European-Russian relations.
The Ukrainian coup was a huge blow to Russia and the Ukraine, which is now in an extremely miserable state, a harbinger of
Nazi militias and mafia groups, but also, indirectly, to Europe, which, destroying its relations with Russia at the behest of
the Americans, is not only ridiculed, but has deprived itself of the possibility of an independent policy, an achievement which
it is now going to ‘complete’ with the Navalny affair, if it leads to the cancelling of the strategic pipeline project
NordStream II.
‘Fuck the EU’ was not only a phrase from Neocon Assistant Secretary of State Nuland to Ambassador Pyatt (then in Kiev, now
in Athens); it was in reality one of the main purposes of the Maidan operation, that is the inauguration chapter of the new Cold
War. Some weeks ago, Mike Pompeo repeated the Nuland coup, by using his influence on the Greek FM Dendias and on the Egyptian
dictator Sissi to blow up the moratorium between Greece and Turkey the German chancellor Merkel had negotiated. ‘Fuck Germany
and its moratoriums’!
The Coming War
The destruction of the Ukraine, Ukrainian-Russian and European-Russian relations was a very big step in the direction of
preparing for world war against Russia and China. This is the central plan that defines many of the individual crises and
episodes around the globe; and if one does not understand this, one cannot understand anything. As for Trump’s friendship with
Russia, we are afraid that it is of no more value than Hitler’s friendship with Stalin or the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact.
The war with China and Russia is the main project of the extremist, radical wing of the Western capitalist establishment. But
such a war cannot happen easily and it will not take a frontal form as WWI and WWII, because of the existence of nuclear
weapons. But it will take all other possible forms.
Imagine for a while that Pompeo and Netanyahu were able to ignite the huge conflict with Iran which they have been trying
to do for years. The wider Middle East would become a land of ruins, and on top of that we would have also the corona crisis. It
would be the end for the Chinese project One belt One road and a very promising beginning for Trump’s programme of “decoupling”
from China. The same could happen if we go to a Greek-Turkish war, the most probable result of which is enormous destruction in
both states and also in Cyprus. Given the destructive capacity of the Greek and Turkish weapons and the impossibility of
destroying them by a surprise first strike, the two countries, if they go to war, risk going back two or three hundred years. A
conflict around Iran, or between Greece and Turkey would also put enormous pressure on Russia.
Spreading Chaos is another way of staging world war when you cannot use ‘normal’, ‘frontal’ methods of war. The policy of
Trump and his allies contributes greatly to preparing for world war by attacking the very institutions of bourgeois democracy,
any kind of national or international rule, by attacking the very principles of Logic, Logos and Science, necessary in order to
transform human societies into herds of wild animals, in a sui generis repetition of the Nazi experiment.
You cannot wage war on Russia or China by any form of ‘liberal capitalism’. To wage such a huge war you need a totalitarian
regime in the West, and this is the real programme, the historic mission of Trump, Pompeo, Thiel, Netanyahu etc.
The way to get Greece and Turkey to war is by sending them ‘false signals’, either encouraging and supporting them, or
implying a threat from the other country. Somebody was able to persuade Ankara to down the Russian jet in 2015, which was a
case of extreme miscalculation. It is easier to make a miscalculation regarding Greece and Turkey, and there is an enormity of
contradictory signals emanating from the US and Israel towards the two capitals.
For example, a very strange article in the Foreign Affairs magazine states that the red line behind which Ankara
will not be permitted to go is south of Crete. This red light is indirectly a green light for Turkey to go to the east or
south-east of Crete. If Turkey sends its ships there the Greek government will be under tremendous pressure from both public
opinion and the Armed Forces to react. This is not something Foreign Affairs can ignore, making us wonder if in fact some
people want a war between Greece and Turkey to overthrow Erdogan, to weaken Turkey for decades, to attack Chinese projects and
the EU. We could multiply such examples, including Trump’s encouragement of Erdogan. Insofar as the Turkish President does not
want to go to a full rupture with the West, he is better prepared to accept as genuine any encouraging signals from Washington.
But they can be a trap, as happened for example with Milosevich or Sadam.
Russia, NATO and a Greek-Turkish war
The other day a friend told me that a conflict between Greece and Turkey would only harm NATO: only the Russians would
benefit, so it could not happen.
I replied that he was wrong. ‘If you are preparing for a world war, you do not even care so much about NATO. Instead you have
to tear down all the institutions of bourgoies society and of the liberal capitalist order, including the EU, maybe even NATO
itself, because they are not really made for such a war. They are certainly made to contain Russia, but not to play Russian
roulette with the very existence of the world. A world war will not be decided by a Senate, no matter how oligarchic it will be.
For such decisions you need Nero, Caligula, Heliogabalus. Such are Trump, Bolsonaro, Pompeo, Netanyahu and those behind them.
They would certainly prefer a Russia-Turkey conflict and have already tried to provoke it. But it is not easy.
A conflict with Greece is their second best alternative, because Greece has the means to destroy Turkey by destroying itself.
A war between the two countries will destroy them and would set them back 200 or 300 years.
It is doubtful, after all, that Russia would benefit from such a development, even if it would be a blow to NATO. First,
because Moscow would see the destruction of Hellenism, the main strategic ally of Russia in the Mediterranean for a thousand
years. Governments and regimes can change, but losing a nation is another matter.
Second, Moscow will likely see, as a result of a war, a pro-Western dictatorship set up in Ankara. Having contributed to the
destruction of a historic country like Greece, Turkey would not have the slightest future. It would be considered the outcast of
all civilised nations, like Germany after World War II.
And of course, the big victims of the war will be China, with the One Belt, One Road plans and Europe itself.
This is the Chaos Strategy. It remains to be seen whether her opponents also have a strategy or not.
PS. The above article provides a possible explanation of the present Greek-Turkish crisis. A second explanation is that
big oil multinationals want to provoke a crisis in order to exploit the hydrocarbons of the region, but we have no serious
indications that big reserves really exist and are exploitable economically. A third explanation, not mutually excluded from
what we have analyzed, is that third forces are trying to provoke a war in order to overthrow Erdogan and also have all the
other consequences we described.
According to the regulator, the direct pipeline from Russia to Germany impedes competition
on European Union energy markets and "violates the interests of consumers." The fine
amounts to 10 percent of Gazprom's annual revenues – the maximum allowed penalty. Other
companies participating in the construction of Nord Stream 2 have been fined $100 million.
UOKiK gave Gazprom and its partners 30 days to terminate financing agreements and
"restore" competition.
"The construction of Nord Stream 2 is a clear violation of market regulations," UOKiK
head Tomasz Chróstny said in Warsaw on Wednesday, as cited by Bloomberg. Gas prices for
consumers must be "the result of fair competition, and, once Nord Stream 2 is operational,
it's likely that gas prices will increase and there'll be a risk of interruption to
supplies," he said.
Warsaw has long been opposing the expansion of the gas link directly connecting Russia with
Germany, Europe's biggest market for the fuel, arguing it would deepen Europe's dependence on
Russian energy. Meanwhile, many European nations have stressed that they want to diversify
their energy sources, and Nord Stream 2 could be one of the ways to achieve that.
In 2019, Poland's President Andrzej Duda met US President Donald Trump to discuss the
possibility of halting the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 project. Warsaw also inked
several contracts with American companies to replace Russian supplies. The intention was to
make Poland the future center for the re-export of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the
region, according to US Ambassador to Poland Georgette Mosbacher.
The US administration has repeatedly criticized the Nord Stream 2 project, aiming to derail
it in order to boost sales of American LNG to Europe.
The construction of the project's two pipelines, which will extend from the Russian coast to
Germany and on to other European countries through the Baltic Sea, is nearing completion. It
will have the capacity to deliver 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and Berlin has
insisted it will help Germany meet its growing energy demand as it phases out coal and nuclear
power.
Take Nord Stream II. If Trump hadn't taken the oath, it would have been up and running
years ago. Would that it were so that this was a gift to Russia and Germany, but it's much
worse than that. Why isn't anyone else curious as to who got what in return?
The blockage of Nordstream 2 is about The Dark Heart of Europe not Russia...
This is one of Putin's few serious errors. He would be much better off pushing gas
projects that flowed east...
Europe is a glove on the US hand and is easily led around by its nose by the CIA and MI6
that infest the MSM and run one false flag after another.
Politicians in the EU are mediocre creatures that crave the dollars stuffed into their
pockets by the US. They are enjoying the ride while it lasts until they go down with the
US.
"... "Maas added that Germany takes decisions related to its energy policy and energy supply 'here in Europe', saying that Berlin accepts ' the fact that the US had more than doubled its oil imports from Russia last year and is now the world's second largest importer of Russian heavy oil .'" [My Emphasis] ..."
Heavy oil is needed for the chemical industry (as opposed to transport). The three biggest
producers of heavy oil are Iran, Venezuella and Russia.
The US produces mostly light oil, thus it needs to import the heavy oil. Since the US
sanctioned Iran and Venezuella, the only significant option remaining is Russia. It would be
ironic if they are buying iranian oil sold to Russia.
"Maas added that Germany takes decisions related to its energy policy and energy
supply 'here in Europe', saying that Berlin accepts ' the fact that the US had more than
doubled its oil imports from Russia last year and is now the world's second largest
importer of Russian heavy oil .'" [My Emphasis]
Now isn't that the interesting bit of news!! The greatest fracking nation on the planet
needs to import heavy oil (likely Iranian, unlikely Venezuelan) from its #1 adversary. As for
the end game, I've written many times what I see as the goal and don't see any need to add
more.
By handing out a €6.5 billion fine against Gazprom, Warsaw has obviously and massively
miscalculated because it did not only antagonize the Russian energy company as was intended,
but also European partners of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project , which the Polish government
obviously had not considered.
Even leaders within the European Union were shocked at the huge fine that Poland is
attempting to impose against Nord Stream 2.
It may very well be that the Polish Office of Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK)
has lost itself when deciding on the price of the fine against Gazprom. But regardless of that,
UOKiK has apparently also exceeded its jurisdiction . As the Düsseldorf-based energy
supplier Uniper reports, the existing agreements on Nord Stream 2 have nothing to do with a
joint venture, which is why the Polish laws on merger controls do not apply to them. The
initial plans were to finance the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline through the
establishment of a joint venture. For this, however, the companies involved should have
received a permit in all the countries in which they operate, as well as from Poland, the only
EU state that blocked this decision. The decision for it not to be a joint venture was made
without further ado so as not to waste time or money in a dispute with Polish authorities.
The pipeline partners designed an alternative financing model for Nord Stream 2 and instead
of joining Nord Stream 2 AG (Company) as a co-partner, the European energy companies are
participating in the project as lenders so that Polish antitrust laws do not apply to them.
However, Gazprom, the majority shareholder of Nord Stream 2 AG, has given its European partners
shares in the company as a mortgage for the financing provided. If the loans from the Russian
side are not paid, the European corporations automatically become the owners of Nord Stream 2
AG. Referring to this fact, the Polish antitrust authorities have declared the European partner
companies to be quasi-shareholders in the pipeline project.
With this UOKiK also justifies the exorbitant fine against Gazprom and the fines of around
€55 million against Uniper (German), Wintershall (German), Engie (French), OMV (Austrian)
and Shell (English-Dutch). Neither Gazprom nor Nord Stream 2 are financially at risk at the
moment and the Russian group has already announced that it will take the fine to court.
Poland is of course now aware that their attempts to fine the Nord Stream 2 project will
amount to nothing. The aim of the Polish government is not so much to force a large sum of
money from Gazprom in the long term, but rather to bury the pipeline project entirely. And this
is the part where Warsaw has grossly miscalculated, not only European reactions, but Russian
determination.
The goal to cancel Nord Stream 2 also explains why Polish authorities published their
decision last week. Relations between the EU and Russia are extra strained because of the
Navalny case and the situation in Belarus. France and Germany are working on new sanctions
against Russia for the Navalny case and continue to apply pressure against Belarus.
Another question is how effective these measures will be. Sanctions have long degenerated
into ambiguity as it is the usual way the West deals with Moscow. Russia has learnt how to
adjust their economy accordingly, meaning that sanctions have turned into a farce. The West is
regularly expanding its blacklists of sanctioned companies and private individuals, but there
has been no significant effect. Political forces with a keen interest in the failure of Nord
Stream 2 are plentiful in the West and they are currently advancing the Navalny case in the
hope that it will cut the EU from Russia more strongly or permanently. This will not occur as
Europe desperately needs Russian energy, which is why Nord Stream 2 is such a critical project
for all involved.
Poland plays the main role in trying to cancel Nord Stream 2 and the decision by UOKiK is
just another push to finally get Europe to abandon the pipeline project. According to a joint
declaration by France and Germany, measures are currently being prepared for those alleged to
be responsible in the Navalny case and their participation in the so-called Novichok
program.
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Despite these measures, Western Europe is bringing its energy project which is important for
its own future out of the danger zone, while Poland is attracting even more displeasure from EU
giants through its own operation. A penalty against Gazprom may be a Russian problem, but fines
against leading corporations from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Great Britain and Austria
are guaranteed to leave many of Europe's biggest capitalist angered. The effort Warsaw is
making to thwart Nord Stream 2 is visibly turning opposite to what they expected as there is
little doubt the Nord Stream 2 project will come to fruition and completion.
Yes, I straightaway notified John Helmer to see if he is aware of these developments, and he
says they are incorporated in this story, which I am just now reading myself (early morning on
the MAYNE QUEEN for 'frontline workers' such as I).
The French must be envious: while they have to tolerate Pavlensky with his arson stunts
and sinister blackmailing of their politicians, the Germans only have to put up with Navalny
who can't stop shooting his mouth off in a different direction every time he opens it.
Although the day must be fast approaching when Berlin might wish Navalny silenced forever
before he embarrasses his hosts even more. The irony would certainly be rich and furthermore,
whatever transpires next against Navalny could parallel what happened to the Skripals in
2018. The difference is that Navalny may be walking into a trap with all eyes (and mouth)
open. He will have only himself to blame if his hosts decide to get rid of him
permanently.
Playing the devil's advocate, it could be that the bottle(s) were exfiltrated in another
manner which in itself raises other questions.
But I would like to know the serial number of the bottle(s). That way they could be traced
to whom the producers sold them to, so a) we can check whether in fact the hotel did purchase
them whether directly or by an intermediary store, or not; b) whether they were bought
elsewhere, i.e. the brand was noted at the hotel (during the recorded video 'discovery'
performance) .
It kind of sounds like they are lawyering up, or getting legal advice about what
Pevchikh's actions and movements prove. And so far, they're correct – a picture of her
apparently buying a bottle of water or some other beverage from a machine proves nothing. She
could have bought something entirely different, or just been standing in front of the
machine. She also could have drunk the water on the plane and left the bottle there; that's
quite true as well.
However, what do we have on their side? Video allegedly taken at the hotel in which they
are seen bagging up empty water bottles. They must have been quote sure that was the piece of
evidence they were looking for, since they took nothing else. And then what? There's no chain
of custody, and nobody who was not there has any idea what happened to these bottles, or
whether the ones allegedly delivered to the Bundeswehr or whoever are the same bottles
allegedly taken from the hotel. There must have been no end of opportunities to open the bags
– which are not proper custody envelopes, simply zip-loc bags which can be opened or
closed any number of times without any indication that this has happened – and tamper
with the contents. Nobody from Team Navalny other than The Bullshitter himself went into a
coma or even showed any symptoms although they allegedly handled evidence which was liberally
dusted with a weapons-grade nerve agent, and wore no personal protective equipment (PPE)
other than rubber gloves. Detective Nick Bailey, who allegedly spent weeks in the hospital
after touching a doorknob allegedly contaminated with the same nerve agent although he was
wearing leather gloves, proved that gloves are no defense against Novichok.
Mind you, this latest iteration was apparently specially engineered to be slow-acting. So
perhaps in a couple of weeks Pevchikh and/or Alburov will fall over jerking and drooling in
the middle of a sentence. We'll just have to wait and see.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has called "Novichok" a Western brand The chemical warfare agent called Novichok is a "purely Western brand" that has been
synthesized and is present in Western countries in about 140 variants, Russia does not have
it. This has been announced by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
"We officially confirm that all chemical weapons in Russia were destroyed under the
strictest international control. This time-consuming process was completed on September 27,
2017″, the foreign ministry has said in a statement.
They recalled that on October 11, 2017, the General Director of the OPCW's technical
secretariat certified the final destruction of chemical weapons in the Russian
Federation.
"As for the chemical warfare agent called "Novichok" in the West, its structure and
mass spectrum were first presented in 1998 in the spectral database of the American Standards
Institute (NIST 98). It is indicative that information on this substance came there from the
research centre of the US Department of Defense", the ministry has stressed.
The ministry has added that subsequently, on the basis of this compound, a whole family
of toxic chemicals had been formed that did not fall under the control of the CWC.
"They worked with it along with the Americans in no less than 20 Western countries".
the statement says.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has noted that the studies of Aleksei Navalny's
biomaterials conducted in Omsk did not reveal the presence of traces of his poisoning with a
chemical warfare agent.
"And the Charité doctors did not find them either. But the German military found
them. Almost a week later", the department has said.
Earlier, the OPCW said that its experts had confirmed the presence of toxic substances
in the samples of urine and blood taken from Navalny. According to the report, a substance
had been found in his body, similar in characteristics to Novichok, but not on the list of
prohibited chemicals.
The Russian diplomatic department has noted that this story has continued according to
a pre-planned scenario, and promised to provide a chronology of "behind-the-scene
manipulations of the main characters of this performance."
Note:
In 1997, the United States ratified the United Nations International Chemical Weapons
Convention treaty. By participating in the treaty, the United States agreed to destroy its
stockpile of aging chemical weapons -- principally mustard agent and nerve agents -- by April
29, 2007. However, the final destruction deadline was extended to April 29, 2012, at the
Eleventh Session of the Conference of the States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention
at The Hague on December 8, 2006 -- source .
The primary remaining chemical weapon storage facilities in the U.S. are Pueblo
Chemical Depot in Colorado and Blue Grass Army Depot in Kentucky. These two facilities hold
10.25% of the U.S. 1997 declared stockpile and destruction operations are under the Program
Executive Office, Assembled Chemical Weapons Alternatives. Other non-stockpile agents
(usually test kits) or old buried munitions are occasionally found and are sometimes
destroyed in place. Pueblo and Blue Grass are constructing pilot plans to test novel methods
of disposal. The U.S. also uses mobile treatment systems to treat chemical test samples and
individual shells without requiring transport from the artillery ranges and abandoned
munitions depots where they are occasionally found. The destruction facility for Pueblo began
disposal operations in March 2015. Completion at Pueblo is expected in 2019. Blue Grass is
expected to complete operation by 2021 -- source .
According to the ministry, the structure and mass spectrum of "Novichok," which is
claimed to have been behind the poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal and
opposition figure Alexey Navalny, were first revealed in the mass spectral database of the
American Institute of Standards in 1998 (NIST 98).
And further:
The OPCW said on Tuesday that a substance similar to nerve agent Novichok, but not
included on the lists of banned chemicals, had been found in Navalny's system. The German
government believes the OPCW's statement actually confirmed the opposition activist's
poisoning with a Novichok group substance but admits that the substance in question is not
formally banned.
Russia has also said that the German Foreign Minister's address to lawmakers on the
"Navalny case" shows that Moscow is still subject to propaganda attacks.
"As for Heiko Maas' thesis that Russia's claims against Germany and the OPCW are
absurd, such remarks are outrageous and do not stand up to any criticism. All we want is to
get legal, technical and organizational assistance both in the bilateral Russian-German
format and via the OPCW in the interests of conducting a comprehensive, objective and
unbiased investigation of all the circumstances of the incident that occurred with Alexey
Navalny," the ministry said.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said earlier that Berlin will discuss with its OPCW
and EU partners a general reaction to the incident with Navalny, adding that the EU may "very
quickly" impose sanctions against those people who they believe are involved in the
development of chemical weapons in Russia.
Russian Foreign Ministry's spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said earlier this week that
the incident with Russian opposition figure Navalny was used just as a pretext for
introducing sanctions against Russia that had long been in the works.
But, as I probably need not mention again, the provocation has served its purpose already.
The German Foreign Minister, who was once quite bellicose on the USA's bullying ways and, if
not a friend of Russia, was at least telling America "You are not the boss of us" on the
issue of energy projects with Russian partners, is now fighting with Russia and saying things
that cannot be taken back. All thanks to that otherwise-useless grifter, the German-Russian
relationship has suffered a serious blow. Merkel, the eternal pragmatist, will not be around
forever and I would not be surprised at all to see her declining health take her out of
politics altogether by the end of 2021, if she does not suffer a medical event which kills
her. She is not a well woman. With her gone, the Atlanticists in the German government
– who still constitute a significant influence – could well prevail, and dump
Germany right back into Uncle Sam's lap. At the very best, in such an eventuality, Nord
Stream II would be allowed to complete but the Germans would demand so much control over it
that it would be just as if Washington was running it.
Germany, France and the UK will push for EU sanctions on Russian individuals over the
alleged poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny, saying they see no other "credible
explanation" for the incident than Moscow's involvement.
The proposals will target "individuals deemed responsible for this crime and breach of
international norms" as well as "an entity involved in the Novichok program," the
French and German foreign ministries said in a joint statement on Wednesday.
"No credible explanation has been provided by Russia so far. In this context, we consider
that there is no other plausible explanation for Mr Navalny's poisoning than a Russian
involvement and responsibility," the statement reads. Berlin and Paris said they will share
their proposals for sanctions with their EU partners shortly.
Later, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab added that the UK stands "side by side"
with France and Germany, declaring that evidence against Moscow is "undeniable."
Navalny fell sick on a flight from the Siberian city of Tomsk to Moscow on August 20,
forcing the plane to perform an emergency landing. The anti-corruption activist was put into an
induced coma at a hospital in the city of Omsk and two days later was transferred to the
prestigious Charité clinic in Berlin at the request of his family.
The German medics who treated Navalny said that their tests revealed that he had been
poisoned with a substance from the Novichok group of nerve agents.
The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has also studied the samples
provided by Berlin, confirming the presence of a toxic substance from the Novichok group in
Navalny's blood and urine.
This contradicts the statements made by the Russian medics from Omsk, who insisted that they
had discovered no traces of any known poison in the activist's system at the time of his
admission to hospital.
Navalny, who has since emerged from coma and been discharged from hospital, said that he
blames Vladimir Putin for making an attempt on his life.
Moscow has repeatedly denied any involvement in Navalny's alleged poisoning and has accused
Berlin of failing to provide samples that would prove the use of the nerve agent.
'Novichok' became a household name after the chemical poisoning of double agent Sergei
Skripal and his daughter in the UK city of Salisbury in 2018. Western powers were also quick to
blame Moscow in that instance, slapping sanctions on Russia, before offering any solid evidence
of the country's involvement.
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Before the fall of USSR most Eastern Europe USSR dependencies energy and security was
subsidized by Russians /USSR. After the fall of USSR most so called independent Eastern
European former Soviet allies are reviving their energy from Russia but subsidized by EU/US
in form of loans and capital investments and their security is total subsidized by US/NATO.
This was understood as such and cleverly corrected by the Russians
The US is ruthlessly waging an intense Hybrid War on Russian energy interests in Europe by
targeting the Eurasian Great Power's relevant projects in Germany, Belarus, and Bulgaria,
banking on the fact that even the partial success of this strategy would greatly advance the
scenario of an externally provoked "decoupling" between Moscow and Washington's transatlantic
allies.
The Newest Front In The New Cold War
The New
Cold War is heating up in Europe after the US intensified its Hybrid
War on Russian interests there over the past two months. This proxy conflict is being
simultaneously waged in Germany, Belarus, and Bulgaria, all three of which are key transit
states for Russian energy exports to the continent, which enable it to maintain at least some
influence there even during the worst of times. The US, however, wants to greatly advance the
scenario of an externally provoked "decoupling" between Moscow and Washington's transatlantic
allies which would allow America to reassert its unipolar hegemony there even if this campaign
is only partially successful. This article aims to explore the broad contours of the US'
contemporary Hybrid War strategy on Russian energy in Europe, pointing out how recent events in
those three previously mentioned transit states are all part of this larger
plan.
Germany
From north to south, the first and largest of these targets is Germany, which is nowadays
treating Russian anti-corruption blogger Navalny. The author accurately predicted
in late August that "intense pressure might be put upon the authorities by domestic politicians
and their American patrons to politicize the final leg of Nord Stream II's construction by
potentially delaying it as 'punishment to Putin'", which is exactly what's happening after
Berlin signaled that it might rethink its commitment to this energy project. America isn't all
to blame, however, since Germany ultimately takes responsibility for its provocative statements
to this effect. Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, published a
thought-provoking piece titled " Russian-German Relations: Back To The Future " about
how bilateral relations will drastically change in the aftermath of this incident. It's concise
and well worth the read for those who are interested in this topic.
Belarus
The next Hybrid War target is Belarus , which the
author has been tracking for half a decade already. After failing to convince Lukashenko to
break off ties with Russia after this summer's Wagner incident, a Color Revolution was then
hatched to overthrow him so that his replacements can turn the country into another Ukraine
insofar as it relates to holding Russian energy exports to Europe hostage. The end goal is to
increase the costs of Russian resources so that the US' own become more competitive by
comparison. Ultimately, it's planned that Russian pipelines will be phased out in the
worst-case scenario, though this would happen gradually since Europe can't immediately replace
such imports with American and other ones. "Losing" Belarus, whether on its own or together
with Nord Stream II, would deal a heavy blow to Russia's geopolitical interests. Countries like
Germany wouldn't have a need to maintain cordial relations with it, thus facilitating a
possible "decoupling".
That's where Bulgaria could become the proverbial "icing on the cake". Turkish Stream is
expected to transit through this Balkan country en route to Europe, but the latest
anti-government protests there threaten to topple the government, leading to worries that
its replacement might either politicize or suspend this project. Azerbaijan's TANAP and the
Eastern Mediterranean's GRISCY pipelines
might help Southeastern Europe compensate for the loss of Russian resources, though the latter
has yet to be constructed and is only in the planning stages right now. Nevertheless,
eliminating Turkish Stream from the energy equation (or at the very least hamstringing the
project prior to replacing/scrapping it) would deal a death blow to Russia's already very
limited Balkan influence. Russia would then be practically pushed out of the region, becoming
nothing more than a distant cultural-historical memory with close to no remaining political
influence to speak of.
Economic Warfare
The overarching goal connecting these three Hybrid War fronts isn't just to weaken Russia's
energy interests, but to replace its current role with American and other industry competitors.
The US-backed and Polish-led " Three Seas Initiative
" is vying to become a serious player in the strategic Central & Eastern European space,
and it can achieve a lot of its ambitions through the construction of new LNG and oil terminals
for facilitating America's plans. In addition, artificially increasing the costs of Russian
energy imports through political means related to these Hybrid Wars could also reduce Russia's
revenue from these sources, which presently account for 40%
of its budget . Considering that Russia's in the midst of a systemic economic transition
away from its disproportionate budgetary dependence on energy, this could hit Moscow where it
hurts at a sensitive time.
The Ball's In Berlin's Court
The linchpin of Russia's defensive strategy is Germany, without whose support all of
Moscow's energy plans stand zero chance of succeeding. If Germany submits to the US on one,
some, or all three of these Hybrid War fronts in contravention of its natural economic
interests, then it'll be much easier for America to provoke a comprehensive "decoupling"
between Russia and Europe. It's only energy geopolitics that allows for both sides to maintain
some sense of cooperation despite the US-encouraged sanctions regime against Russia after its
reunification with Crimea and thus provides an opportunity for improving their relations
sometime in the future. Sabotaging Russia's energy interests there would thus doom any
realistic prospects for a rapprochement between them, but the ball's in Berlin's court since it
has the chance to say no to the US and ensure that the German-Russian Strategic Partnership
upholds Europe's strategic autonomy across the present century.
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Concluding Thoughts
For as much as cautiously optimistic as many in the Alt-Media Community might
be that the US' Hybrid War on Russian energy in Europe will fail, the facts paint a much more
sobering picture which suggests that at least one of these plots will succeed. Should that
happen, then the era of energy geopolitics laying the foundation for Russian-European relations
will soon draw to a close, thereby facilitating the US' hoped-for "decoupling" between them,
causing budgetary difficulties for Moscow at the moment when it can least afford to experience
such, and pushing the Eurasian Great Power's strategic attention even further towards Asia. The
last-mentioned consequence will put more pressure on Russia to perfect its "balancing"
act between China and India , which could potentially be a double-edged sword that makes it
more relevant in Asian geopolitical affairs but also means that one wrong move might seriously
complicate its
21st-century grand strategy .
If you look at the three countries mentioned Belarus will likely be absorbed by Russia
sooner rather than later. The push for this is underway looking at meetings taking place. For
Bulgaria the US is far away and has no power to stop the Turks. It is the Turks the
Bulgarians fear, with a lot of reasons, their surest way of keeping out of the Turks clutches
is to look to Russia for support. Unfortunately the USA has an appalling track record of
betraying countries, ask Libya.
The Germans have no choice but take the Russian gas, economically, socially and for
strategic reasons. The truly big fear for the US is a German/Russian bloc. German and Russian
technology with unrivaled resources. That is the future super power if they are pushed
together, something that is very likely if we see a major economic contraction in the next
few years.
Mustahattu , 4 hours ago
The US fear of an Eurasian alliance. The US fear Europe will create a Silicon Valley of
the future. The US fear the Euro will replace the dollar as a reserve currency. The US fear
Russia will become a superpower. The US fear China. There's a lot to fear yankee dear...cos
it's all gonna happen.
Hope Copy , 1 hour ago
RUSSIA is content with 45 and 25nm as it can be hardened.. 14 and especially 7nm is so
that the **** will wear out..
Ace006 , 2 hours ago
Instead of fretting about how this or that country or bloc will become a/an _________
superpower the US could focus on regaining its former pre-eminence.
It's a crazy thought, I know, but
moving a massive amount of industrial capacity to China and fueling the rise of a
communist country just might have been a bad idea and
thrashing about in the international arena like a rutting rhinoceros at huge expense
makes us look foolish and, in the case of Syria, petty and vindictive.
Repairing the damage from the former and stopping the hemorrhage of money and reputation
respectively would be a far better objective than playing Frankenstein in Libya, Afghanistan,
Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Georgia, Serbia, Iran, Poland, N. Korea, and Venezuela, inter alia .
Mexico is a failed state right on our border that contributes mightily to our immigration,
cultural, and political problems. But, no, the puffed up, prancing morons who make US policy
can summon the imagination to figure out how to help our very own neighbors deal with their
hideous problems. No. Let's engage in regime change and "nation building" in Afghanistan,
Iraq, Syria, Libya, Ukraine, and Belarus.
The words of the great Marcus Aurelius are on point: "Within ten days thou wilt seem a god
to those to whom thou art now a beast and an ape, if thou wilt return to thy principles and
the worship of reason."
Herodotus , 1 hour ago
Bulgaria must return to the protection of the Ottoman Empire.
yerfej , 4 hours ago
Easy solution, end NATO. Just have all US forces told to leave the EU and let them
determine their own destiny. Then do the same with US forces in the ME, Japan, Korea, etc.
EVERYONE would be better off, including US taxpayers which get nothing out of the useless
overseas deployment of resources which could be better spent at home.
yojimbo , 3 hours ago
5% budget deficit, 5% military spending. Leave the world, drop 4.5% of the spending and
either save money, or build infrastructure. It's so simple, I am disappointed Trump doesn't
at least state it. I get he is limited by the system, and can't be a Cincinnatus, even if he
wanted to, but he has his First Amendment.. though I grant him a personal fear of being
Kennedied!
Bac Si , 2 hours ago
Howdy Yerfej. It sounds like you are all for Isolationism.
But Isolationism means different things to different people. Pre WW2, Isolationism in the
US meant selling our products to hostile countries. In the case of Japan, oil to help them
kill Chinese people. In the case of Germany and Italy, food and vehicles to help them conquer
all of Europe.
Considering the ridiculous education that the US gives its children, it's no wonder that
most Americans don't know much about history (I say that in general terms, not to you
specifically). Henry Ford senior not only received the 'Grand Cross of the German Eagle' from
Adolf Hitler in 1938, he also received a 'Congressional Medal' from the US Congress shortly
after WW2 – and for the same reason. Selling trucks to help the war effort.
Even after Pearl Harbor, there were politically powerful Isolationists that did not want
the US to get involved in WW2. Why? Because a lot of money was at stake. It still is. These
same people will continue to argue for Isolationism even after we are attacked.
Two months AFTER Pearl Harbor, FDR made a speech that included this:
"Those Americans who believed that we could live under the illusion of isolationism wanted
the American eagle to imitate the tactics of the ostrich. Now, many of those same people,
afraid that we may be sticking our necks out, want our national bird to be turned into a
turtle. But we prefer to retain the eagle as it is – flying high and striking hard. I
know that I speak for the mass of the American people when I say that we reject the turtle
policy and will continue increasingly the policy of carrying the war to the enemy in distant
lands and distant waters – as far away as possible from our own home grounds." –
FDR
This radical change in our foreign policy has never been explained or even referred to in
US history books. Powerful economic forces will always love the idea of "Open Trade
Isolationism". But if Isolationism is ever suddenly defined by not doing business with any
hostile government – those powerful forces will go ballistic. They will strongly lobby
against 'Economic Warfare'. In other words, they will always want to make lots of money by
selling their products to hostile governments, no matter how many people die.
Want a great example?
Right after Loral Corporation CEO Bernard L. Schwartz donated a million dollars to the
DNC, President Clinton authorized the release of ballistic missile technology to China so
Loral could get their satellites into space fast and at low cost. Those same missiles, and
their nuclear warheads, are now pointed at the US.
The argument has always been that if we trade with hostile governments, they will grow to
like us. Does anyone out there believe that if the UK and France gave pre WW2 Germany an
extra $20 billion in trade, Germany wouldn't have started WW2? Anyone with a brain would tell
you that Germany would have put those resources into their military (like China has been
doing) and WW2 would have started earlier.
Yerfej, if we brought back the Cold War organization called the Coordinating Committee for
Multilateral Export Controls (COCOM), I would be all for Isolationism. President Clinton got
rid of it in his first year, and Western weapons technology has been threatening us ever
since.
BaNNeD oN THe RuN , 5 hours ago
You have to love the dynamic duo of "lie, cheat and steal" Pompeo and his "mob boss"
Trump. There is absolutely no subtlety in their obvious shakedown tactics.
PrivetHedge , 4 hours ago
The mob had far more honor, and better morals.
PrivetHedge , 4 hours ago
Washington's transatlantic allies...
Hahahah, occupied vassals.
Washington has cost Germany a massive slice of GDP.
you_do , 4 hours ago
Yankee has plenty of problems at home.
Rest of the world can decide their own energy policy.
They do not suffer from the 'Russia' propaganda.
geno-econ , 5 hours ago
Let Russia, the lowest cost energy producer win energy competition in Europe as China, the
lowest cost manufacturing producer is winning in America. Only difference is retailers,
shippers, assembly part importers such as auto, electronics and appliance makers are making a
profit and consumer gets lower prices. We should let others decide for themselves and stop
meddling----only result will be a bloody nose
you_do , 4 hours ago
Yankee has plenty of problems at home.
Rest of the world can decide their own energy policy.
They do not suffer from the 'Russia' propaganda.
geno-econ , 5 hours ago
Let Russia, the lowest cost energy producer win energy competition in Europe as China, the
lowest cost manufacturing producer is winning in America. Only difference is retailers,
shippers, assembly part importers such as auto, electronics and appliance makers are making a
profit and consumer gets lower prices. We should let others decide for themselves and stop
meddling----only result will be a bloody nose
free-energy , 4 hours ago
Notice how everything the US does around the world is a WAR. War on Energy, War on Drugs,
War on Birth Control, War War War... America will fall after 2020 if nothing changes for the
better. Every year the world grows more and more tired of the US bs and moves further away
from it. Its so bad that they choose to deal with a communist country over us.
You reap what you've sowed.
Bobby Farrell Can Dance , 3 hours ago
The Anglo American parasite pirate gangsters keep barking on about Russia bad, China bad,
but I look around and I see nothing but these trouble makers waging war on anything they
cannot control. The US and UK are devil nations. They will deserve all the rot they have
coming their way.
Unknown User , 5 hours ago
Trump wants a trade balance with all major economies like Germany and China. If they don't
buy from us, he will have to raise tariffs. In case of Germany, they need nothing from us so
he wants them to buy US LNG. Merkel's position is that "there is a cheap Russian gas", while
Trump is telling her "no there isn't one".
Pumpinfe , 4 hours ago
So trump loves to deep throat Russia but give Germany a hard time to Nordstream 2? Wake up
fanboys, your hero is a ******. I got so much money invested in gazprom. LNG is junk and
gazprom (Russian owned) is gona crush LNG and trump and his idiot following can't do a damn
thing. You trump idiots will believe anything. Let me enlighten you...gazprom is the lowest
cost producer of natural gas in the world...go look at the difference between gazprom and LNG
and then you will realize that orange dump is an idiot along with his army of empty heads. Oh
and if you think China and Russia are not friendly, go look up the Power of Siberia pipeline.
That will give you a good sense of the relationship between Russia and China. America is
rotting from the inside and Russia and China are eating their popcorn watching it happen.
Dabooda , 3 hours ago
I don't see Trump deep-throating anyone but Netanyahu. Sans gratuitous insults, your
comment about Gazprom is spot on
Lokiban , 5 hours ago
I doubt Merkel will give in. She would commit political suicide if she did that. She knows
Navalny is a US effort to stop Nordstream 2.
What is the alternative? Buying gas from the US or US-controlled oilfields in Iraq and Syria?
Putin might have a say in that.
Lokiban , 5 hours ago
I doubt Merkel will give in. She would commit political suicide if she did that. She knows
Navalny is a US effort to stop Nordstream 2.
What is the alternative? Buying gas from the US or US-controlled oilfields in Iraq and Syria?
Putin might have a say in that.
thurstjo63 , 3 hours ago
The main fault in Mr Korybko's thinking is that he believes that European countries will
not just shoot themselves in the foot but in the head to appease the US. At a european and
local level, those who wanted Nord Stream 2 to be suspended or killed have failed. The costs
are way too high. For that we can thank, perversely, the agreements associated with
protecting investments from political decisions pushed by the US itself!!! Given that there
is no proof of Navalny being poisoned, Germany knows that there is no way that they could
hope to win their case for stopping Nord Stream 2 in a tribunal with persons capable of
rational thought. That is why they made the deal to buy some US liquified gas for a couple of
billion dollars. Because that is the cheapest way of extricating themselves from this
situation. Otherwise, they are looking at orders of magnitude more compensation to russian
and european firms for stopping the pipeline.
As for Belarus, barring Lukashenko doing something profoundly stupid like reacting
violently to protests, that ship has already sailed. Protests are smaller every week and
mainly on the weekend as now the "opposition" has been publishing people's profiles accusing
them of collaborating with the government without any proof, leading to innocent people and
their families to be threatened. There will be a transition from Lukashenko over the next
couple of years but you can be sure that the present "opposition" given their desire to break
away from Russia will not be part of the group that comes to power in the future since their
base of support diminishes every week.
Finally Bulgaria already shot themselves in the foot when they backed out of South Stream
and had major problems securing energy resources to meet its needs during the intervening
period. Radev as any politician wanting to stay in office knows, if he doesn't go through
with connecting Turk Stream to the rest of Europe that he might as well resign. So unless the
US has compromising information on him that can force him from office or the Radev's
administration doesn't control the US attempts to create the conditions for a colour
revolution in Bulgaria, it is definitely not going to happen.
I'm sorry but Mr. Korybko is wrong on all counts!
Savvy , 4 hours ago
When the US backed Georgia's violent incursion into S Ossetia it took Russia one day to
send them back.
Russians are slow to saddle but ride fast.
Joiningupthedots , 2 hours ago
That was with the remnants of the old Soviet Army too.
The new Russian Army is an entirely different beast in both organisation, training,
experience and equipment.
Decoupling Russia from EU, is re-enforcing the Eurasia bloc...where is the future of the
world.
Russia belongs to Europa...not the USA.
BaNNeD oN THe RuN , 4 hours ago
Geographically Europe and Asia are one continent. It was "European exceptionalism" (the
precursor to American Exceptionalism) that divided it as an ethno-cultural construct.
researchfix , 5 hours ago
Cancelling NS2 will chase the German industry into Russia. Cheap energy, moderate wages,
Eurasian market at the front steps.
The sheep and their ex working places and Mutti will stay in Germany.
Bobby Farrell Can Dance , 3 hours ago
Do Germans want to be slaves of these abject Brits and Americans? Pffffft....gas from
Russia is a NO BRAINER.
Only British and Americans rats do not like that idea. How un-selfish then, it is for
these jealous, insecure morons to dictate to Germany how she should trade. That's called
outright meddling. These imperialists are like entitled Karens, they think the world owes
them favours at the snap of a finger.
Sandmann , 4 hours ago
Nordstream 2 has an add-on leg to UK. Germany is largest gas importer on earth and cannot
run its industry without gas imports from Russia. LNG is simply too expensive unless US
taxpayers subsidise it.
If US wants to destabilise Europe it will reap the consequences. Southern Europe depends
on gas from North Africa - Portugal generates electricity from Maghreb Pipeline to Spain from
Algeria via Morocco. Erdogan hopes to put Turkey in position of supplying gas to Europe.
Germany will not abandon Nordstream 2 but might abandon USA first.
Max21c , 3 hours ago
The US is ruthlessly waging an intense Hybrid War on Russian energy interests in Europe
by targeting the Eurasian Great Power's relevant projects in Germany, Belarus, and
Bulgaria, banking on the fact that even the partial success of this strategy would greatly
advance the scenario of an externally provoked "decoupling" between Moscow and Washington's
transatlantic allies.
It's a petty game and when it fails then the Washingtonians credibility and legitimacy
just further erodes. The EU needs the energy supplies and the Russian Federation has the
supplies. It's all just short term & small gain silliness by a pack of freaks in
Washington DC and their freaks in the CIA, Thunk Tank freaks and freaks in the foreign policy
establishment. It's just more of the Carnival sideshow/freakshow put on by Washingtonians. As
usual if it's a Washingtonian (post Cold War) policy then there's little or no substance
behind it and you can be sure it hasn't be thought through thoroughly and it'll eventually
turn and boomerang back on the circus people in Washington, Ivy League circus people, and
JudeoWASP elite circus people, CIA circus clowns and circus clowns in the Thunk Tonks and
elites Fareign Poolicy ***-tablishment.
John Hansen , 3 hours ago
If all it takes is a Navaly hoax to cause this Europe isn't really worth dealing with.
propaganda_reaper , 3 hours ago
Once upon a time, a revolution occurred in a country through which passed a gas pipeline.
The bad guys were vanquished. And the very good foreign guys who helped the local good guys
defeat the tyrant said: "We got the same stuff, but liquid."
Any similarity with fictitious events or characters was purely coincidental.
Remember the Gas to Europe still flows through the Ukraine. Russia just needs to reduce
the gas Pressure and blame the Ukraine and Europe goes cold and Dark.
German People will beg for Nordstream 2 to be switched on.
lucitanian , 31 minutes ago
That's not the way Russia works. But it's the kind of blackmail that the US uses. And
that's why Russia is a more dependable partner for Europe for energy.
Hope Copy , 1 hour ago
This **** goes right back to the 'DeepState' pseudo-revolution that got the Nicky-the-weak
killed ,because he financed his railroads and wanted to be rich as hell as he perceived the
ENGLISH monarchy to be, with a parliamentary DUMA that he could over rule if need be. I have
looked 'DeepState' right in the eyes when I was young and dumb and was told that I would
never go to their masion.. Nicky had family enemies. and the Czech fighting force was never
going to save him.. Stalin was also double-crossed, but was well informed.. it was in his
sector if one reads and believes. Cunning fox Stalin was, always playing those under him to
do his bidding.. and that lesson has been well learned by a couple of the world's leaders in
this day-in-age...
Herodotus , 1 hour ago
German manufacturing costs must be driven higher to take the heat off of the UK as they
emerge from the EU and attempt to become competitive.
novictim , 1 hour ago
When "War" is actually not war but trade policy and financial incentives then you know you
are engaged in dangerous bloviations and hyperbole.
When the shooting starts, then you can talk of War.
SuperareDolo , 2 hours ago
Russia might not want to fight these attempts to isolate it from the western economy. The
collateral damage will be that much less, once Babylon the great finally falls.
LoveTruth , 2 hours ago
And US claims to be a "Fair Player," caring for freedom and democracy, while twisting arms
and supporting corrupted officials.
IronForge , 3 hours ago
PetroUSD, MIC, Colonial Control of Vassals. World Domination Play by the Hegemony.
Just like the Policies of NATO: Russians Out, Germans Down, Anglo-American-ZioMasons and
Vatican_Vassals In.
Policies were like this - Sponsored by Anglo-ZioMasons from Pre-WWI, continued through
WWII and the First Cold War, and onwards after the Collapse of the SUN and the ensuing NeoCon
Wolfowitz Doctrine and PNAC7/Bush-Cheney PetroUSD Plans.
The Hegemony Control MENA Energy Producers. The IRQ-KWT War were mishandled; and KSA
demanded for the USA to Smite IRQ. The Initial War and Occupation prompted Hussein to opt the
EUR for Petroleum, which Brought about the End of Hussein through the 9-11/PNAC7 Long
War.
LBY opted for the Au-Dinar for Petroleum; and were Fail-Stated. IRN and RUS remain the
only Major Energy Producers not Controlled by the Hegemony.
IRN were Sanctioned since removing the Shackles of Hegemonic Occupancy via Shah Par Levi;
and attempts for Energy Diversification via Nuclear means raised suspicions of Nuclear
Weapons Development - prompting for heavier Sanctions and 5thColumn Regime Change Operations
by the Hegemony. IRN circumvented Sanctions in part by selling their Petroleum via Major
Currencies and Barter. Though many Countries have reduced or maintained their purchase of IRN
Petroleum via Sanctions Protocols, CHN are involved in Purchasing IRN's Output.
RUS, another Target of Ruin, Plunder, and Occupational Exploitation by the Hegemony, were
Too Large a Country with Standing Armed Forces for Direct Military Invasion by the Hegemony.
After the Collapse of the SUN, The Harvard/Chicago led Economic Reforms ended in Plunder -
which prompted the Selection and Rise of Putin, who drove out the Plunderers. The Hegemony
continue their Geopolitical War of Influence Peddling around RUS while attempting Soft War
NATO Membership Recruitment and Regime Change Coups within RUS, Ex-SUN Nation-States, and
Trading Partners.
RUS have endured, became Militarily mightier, have become the Major Energy Producer for
North/Western Europe and CHN. In addition to the Production, RUS now have begun Trading
Petroleum+NatGas outside of the PetroUSD Exchange Mechanism, opting for Customer Currencies
or RUB.
RUS and IRN are expected to be Key Providers of the PetroCNY-Au Exchange Mechanism.
The Hegemony and MENA Vassals can't Compete in Combined Petroleum+NatGas Volume and Price;
and DEU - by Directly Importing from RUS - will most likely become more Independent from the
Hegemon.
CHN, RUS, and DEU - Major Energy, Industrial, Natural Resource, and Military Powers
Decoupling from the Influences of the Hegemony, with IND Slowly coming to their Own (IND are
simply Too Large to remain Vassals to the Hegemon; and Vassal GBR did so much to Oppress them
in the past).
Funny that the Anglo-American-ZioMasons and VAT have brought each of these 3 Powers to
Ruin and Occupation in the Past 2 Centuries.
The Ironies being Played Out are that:
1) GBR Lost their Prime Colonies - America/USA, IND, and now Trade City Colony HKG - by
their Oppressive and Exploitative Occupancy; and
2) USA, after Fighting Wars for Independence from such Occupations by GBR - Once Becoming
a Major Military Power, Followed in the Anglo-ZioMason Tradition of Geopolitical Conquest and
Control to the Scale of pursing not only in World Domination - but in Absolute Global
Rule.
Maghreb2 , 2 hours ago
Problem is demographic
shift . The previous modern system dominated by Zio-Masonry was GNP and GDP where
currencies were measured against global output and floated against gold and each other. Now
with high inflation and demographic decline knocking out the economy is easier leading to
fights between zones of influence. Petro Ruble, Euro or dollar. Dangerous commodities like
kilos of heroin, trafficked humans or weapons. Zio-Masonic system has fallen to gangsterism.
Hybrid Warfare is the kind of thing we saw in Afghanistan or 80s Columbia .
Militarized Russian mafia vs NATO backed militarized police forces.
Once the population reaches a certain age and consumption drops there isn't much to fight
over besides social control systems of the young minority. Color revolutions in Central
Europe are really only effecting the long term economy of the young . Hope would be Left wing Radicals
stood up to the system and aligned with right wing groups to eliminate masonic and Zionist
factions and take back the command and control systems before the continet is shut down
permanently.
Precision strikes and hunting down their
descendents . Easy to find because Hitler and Stalin had their ancestors massacred for
loyalty to Rothschild. They won't bite the hands that feed.The Vatican vassal systems was
built on knowing that a Zionist is Zionist and Masons is a Mason. They are cults simply
teaching them the correct way to behave can avert these political problems.
In terms of Belarus and Russia they should consider the fact the birth rate rate rose
after the Soviet collapse and exodus west means many of them shouldn't have even been born in
Rothschilds plan. In their " system
" economic planning starts at birth because color revolutions effect
long term bond issuances they control.
Stalin and Hitler both knew this and used money linked to raw marterials and goods to beat
the British gold standard system. If you knew what the Western Central banks were worth you
would kill people for using their money.
@vot
tak – Russia could stop transit through Ukraine tomorrow and switch to LNG and
existing underwater pipelines. The fact that they have not done it and signed a limited
5-year deal for 2020-2024 suggests that either Russia doesn't want to do it or it is a
political concession to its customers (Germany)
You are right that NS2 theatre by Washington is simply playing for time – they know
that they can't really prevail. But it is larger than that: their whole strategy is to delay
and postpone. They are trying to delay the inevitable or are hoping for a miracle. But
strategically they have lost. Water flows downstream, it is only a question of how fast.
A very interesting post. I might quibble with some of the finer points, but yes, the world
has gone stark raving bonkers.
The Russians are NOT ten feet tall, and the Americans – for all of the idiocy of the
ruling elites – still have many strengths, and no matter how badly employed, these
strengths will not disappear in a day. Russia might yet get pulled down, if they are unlucky
or the elites are corrupted by money.
But there is one difference between the Americans and the Russians that, long term, may be
the single biggest factor: more than hypersonic missiles or all of that. It's that, for now
at least, the Russian elites can learn from experience, and the Americans, can not (or will
not, but same thing).
Consider: after the Soviet Union fell, Russian forces got their tails whipped by the
Chechens. The Russians rethought their approach, and in a rematch Russia scored not just a
military victory, but an enduring strategic victory: they accomplished their policy goals! A
goal that was not just spreading chaos and instability! When was the last time the United
States did something like that? Maybe Korea in the 1950's.
The Taliban in Afghanistan and the 'rag-tag' North Vietnamese who successfully fought
the Vietnam War might disagree with you .
You can't really use those examples as a way of finalising the inferiority of the Western
armed forces vis-à-vis Russia as the latter also did not manage to defeat the Afghans
and would likely have been made a mincemeat of by the VC as well.
Russia's performance in Chechnya was also not that great considering the power
differential.
"... On rules based disorder and the capitulation of Merkel and her BND lapdogs to the 'hate Russia' fulminations of the UKUSA morons. I see that the German Parliament has NOT TAKEN its red pills these days and is reluctant to swallow the BS. ..."
On rules based disorder and the capitulation of Merkel and her BND lapdogs to the 'hate
Russia' fulminations of the UKUSA morons. I see that the German Parliament has NOT TAKEN its
red pills these days and is reluctant to swallow the BS. It would be satisfying to see
the collective wisdom of the Parliament to exceed that of the BND. But then that is a low
bar.
"... Discussion about ending Nord Stream 2 resumed last month, when EU politicians debated further sanctions, following the suspected poisoning of Navalny. Naryshkin believes that the US is using the accusations of poisoning as a pretext to sell more LNG to Europe. On Thursday, MEPs demanded that Germany cancel construction of the pipeline. ..."
The US is working hard to keep the spotlight on the case of Alexey
Navalny as a way to help block construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, according to Sergey
Naryshkin, head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (the SVR).
Naryshkin believes that Washington wants to block Nord Stream 2 so it can prevent Moscow
from efficiently providing gas to the continent, thereby increasing demand for American
liquefied natural gas (LNG) in other European states. As things stand, Russia delivers a large
percentage of the continent's gas, and the pipeline would connect the country's gas supply
directly to Germany, under the Baltic Sea. The project is more than 90 percent
complete.
"It is extremely important for Washington to end this project," Naryshkin said,
explaining that the alleged poisoning of opposition figure Navalny has become an excuse to stop
Nord Stream 2's construction.
The United States has long been opposed to the project, somewhat incredibly claiming that it
would "undermine Europe's overall energy security and stability," but many believe that
Washington's true motivations are economic.
Discussion about ending Nord Stream 2 resumed last month, when EU politicians debated
further sanctions, following the suspected poisoning of Navalny. Naryshkin believes that the US
is using the accusations of poisoning as a pretext to sell more LNG to Europe. On Thursday,
MEPs demanded that Germany cancel construction of the pipeline.
Despite US pressure, Naryshkin has expressed hope that the EU will rely on common sense
before the "cold winter" and likened the proposed halting of Nord Stream 2 to
"cutting off the nose to spite the face."
Late last month, Russian anti-corruption activist Navalny was hospitalized in the Siberian
city of Omsk after he became ill on a flight from Tomsk to Moscow. Two days later, after a
request from his family and associates, he was flown to Berlin for treatment at that city's
Charité clinic. Following tests, German authorities announced that Navalny was poisoned
with a substance from the Novichok group of nerve agents. After the diagnosis, Heiko Maas, the
German Foreign Minister, told Berlin tabloid Bild that he hopes "the Russians don't force
[the Germans] to change [their] stance on Nord Stream 2."
Were Khodorkovsky or Browder among people involved? To what extent Trump administration and
MI6 were involved? Looks more and more line a bad replay of Skripals poisoning
Notable quotes:
"... Germans and "the whole world", to quote Pompeo, know the truth: Russians simply deny the truth, and the more they deny, the more truthful the accusations appear. And the elephant in the room: Why isn't the poisoned by "Novichok" bullshitting bastard of a US agent dead? And the answer given by the Germans, that is ironic in the extreme: because Russian doctors saved his life in Omsk. ..."
"... There are undeniable advantages to accusations for which no substantiation is offered – as we saw with the Skripals, you can await public comment, identify where you went wrong from scornful rejections of the narrative, and then modify it so that it makes more sense. ..."
"... I hope Germany offers residency to the Navalnys, and that they accept. Russia can't really refuse to let him back in, he's a citizen. But as long as he is there he will cause trouble, and he'll be recharged with all the PR he has received from this latest caper. ..."
"... But it is suggested that Russia is bargaining for his return; the story also expands on Lavrov's recent statements, and introduces a villain in the woodpile I would not have personally suspected: Poland. ..."
"... I recall Lavrov querying the other day Pevchikh's presence in Germany, her refusal to be interviewed by investigators in Omsk and how come she managed to fly to Germany with Navalny? He also said that other supporters of Navalny had also turned up in Germany. ..."
"... I lay a pound to a pinch of shit that Pevchikh is a British agent. ..."
"... Looking good for almost a corpse. COVID-19, a flu virus, is a deadly killer, and Novichok, a deadly nerve agent, is not a killer. ..."
"... Dances with Bears: THE PEVCHIKH PLOT – NAVALNY BOTTLE, LONDON WITNESS FLEE THE SCENE OF THE CRIME, BERLIN TOO http://johnhelmer.net/the-pevchikh-plot-navalny-bottle-london-witness-flee-the-scene-of-the-crime-berlin-too/ ..."
"... I reckon Khordokovsky has a hand in this. He has the same moral compass as dead Berezovsky. None. And he has refused to stick to agreements (keep out of politics). If the British or someone else get fingered for this cunning plan , would they serve him up on a silver platter? Almost certainly so. ..."
"... We certainly did well to focus on Maria Pevchikh as soon as we discovered that in addition to being the one who evaded questioning by Russian authorities by flying out to Germany, she also had British residency. She certainly has become a "person of interest" and could well be the major individual in the plot to incapacitate Navalny and use him to pressure Germany over NSII and Russia over the Belarus unrest. ..."
"... It is still unknown whether Pevchikh is a British citizen. I think she is and probably must be, in fact, for if she is only a visa holder or an applicant for UK citizenship, she could be told by the Home Office to go take a hike if it is proven that she was instrumental in the poisoning plot. ..."
"... Ask Pevchikh! Only she is now probably undergoing debriefing in London at UK Secret Intelligence Services HQ, 85 Albert Embankment. ..."
"... There was considerable risk involved in the deception. I doubt that Navalny went into the deception willingly. There was a very real risk that he could have suffered some brain damage going into the first coma and that's sure to compromise his health in the long term in other ways. ..."
"... More likely it seems a lot of the deception was planned behind Navalny's back and people were waiting for an opportunity to carry it out. It may have been planned years ago for someone else and then switched to Navalny once he was in the Omsk hospital. Julia Navalnaya may have been pushed into demanding that Navalny be transferred to Berlin and while the Omsk hospital doctors were stabilising him for the transfer, the deception then started going into action in Germany. ..."
"... Lavrov smelt a rat several days ago -- last week, I'm sure -- when he stated that suspicions had been aroused by one of Navalny's gang refusing to answer investigators' questions in Omsk and then scarpering off to Germany. ..."
"... I'm quite sure the FSB already knew of Pevchikh's comings and goings between London and Moscow (over 60 flights there and back I read somewhere) and her activities with the Navalny organization. ..."
"... if Washington thinks it can actually halt Nord Stream II – with the understanding that the Russians would probably give up after such a stinging second rebuke – then the sky is the limit, and they will scornfully reject any other solution. The one who stands to get hurt the most is Europe. But I don't think they realize it. ..."
NYT сообщила о
планах
Навального
вернуться в
Россию
15 сентября 2020
NYT has announced Navalney's to return to Russia
15 September 2020
Founder of the Anti-Corruption Foundation, Alexei Navalny, who is undergoing treatment
in Germany, has discussed his poisoning with the German prosecutor and announced that he
plans to return to Russia, The New York Times has reported, citing a source in the German
security forces.
According to the source, Navalny is fully aware of his condition, of what happened and
where he is. In a conversation with the prosecutor, he refused that his case be jointly
investigated by Germany and Russia. Navalny said he planned to return to Russia immediately
after his recovery and continue his mission, the newspaper notes.
I notice that the Navalny fake story has gone off the radar in the Western MSM.
Now there just remain the lies and innuendos fixed in the minds of the sheeple.
Only an investigation by the Germans.
No investigation by the Russians.
Germans and "the whole world", to quote Pompeo, know the truth: Russians simply deny
the truth, and the more they deny, the more truthful the accusations appear. And the elephant
in the room: Why isn't the poisoned by "Novichok" bullshitting bastard of a US agent dead?
And the answer given by the Germans, that is ironic in the extreme: because Russian doctors
saved his life in Omsk.
Other elephants lurking in the shadows:
Why hadn't everyone who had been in contact with the piece of shit, including fellow
passengers on the Tomsk-Moscow flight died?
Where were the hazmat-suit-wearing specialists that should have detoxified the aeroplane
on board of which the Bullshitter threw a wobbler?
So many elephants, all ignored.
Total fabrication.
When the liar returns here, how about arresting him for breach of his bail conditions?
Not technically but absolutely legally he was not allowed to leave the country.
How about arresting him for perverting the course of justice? You can get life for doing
that in the UK!
He refuses to allow the Russian state to investigate his case but he and his controllers
and supporters maintain that the Russian state attempted to murder him with the most deadly
nerve agent known to man -- but it didn't work.
And on the plus side he can sell expensive 'blessed' trinkets to his hamsters help
subsidize his interesting lifestyle. Think holy relics, think Medjigorje, Lourdes
etc.
Навальный,
"Новичок" и
"белая коробка"
13 сентября 2020
Navalny, "Novichok" and the "White Box"
13 September 2020
Why is not a single Berlin doctor ready to personally confirm the announced poisoning
of Navalny?
A Russian patient is recovering in the "White Box" of the Charité hospital.
During the three weeks of Navalny's stay within these walls, no one shouted at the doctors
that they were murderers, no one demanded from them hourly reports on the patient's state of
health. At the beginning of the week, the hospital's press service informs the press that the
personal guest of the Federal Chancellor has been withdrawn from an artificial coma and is
reacting to other people. A couple of days later, "Spiegel" magazine publishes encouraging
information: "More progress has been made. If his health continues to improve, Navalny will
begin to receive more visitors". According to "Bellingcat" and "Der Spiegel", Navalny can
already speak and can probably recall the events that happened before he lost consciousness
on an aeroplane flying from Tomsk to Moscow.
In general, the latest Charité press releases are in clear contradiction to the
horror that the German press had been gathering all week. The already poisoned underpants
have been forgotten, the newspaper "Die Zeit" returns the reader to a famous photograph:
morning in a café at the Tomsk airport, a passenger for the flight to Moscow flight
peers into a cup that he has raised in order to drink out of it. In it,, according to a "Die
" source, is not just a chemical warfare agent from the "Novichok" group: in there is a
"Novichok" on steroids.
"Before this assassination attempt, the world did not know about this poison, which is
said to be even more deadly and dangerous than all known substances from the Novichok group.
Scientists found corresponding traces on the Navalny's hands and on the neck of a bottle from
which he had drunk. This "modified Novichok" allegedly acts more slowly than previous
versions. The Germans assume that one of the FSB agents monitoring Navalny, or an undercover
agent, added drops of poison to his tea or applied a substance to the surface of a cup.
Navalny was supposed to die on board the aircraft", writes "Die Zeit".
Everything is just fine and dandy here: for example, about agents who had to perform
the necessary manipulations with a super-poison in a crowded place. A remarkable and suddenly
appeared bottle -- no bottle was seen in Omsk at all. The story goes on about the fact that,
apart from tea, Navalny did not drink anything. It turns out that those accompanying the
blogger took the bottle out of the plane, hid it, and then transported it to Germany and
handed it to Bundeswehr chemists Concealing evidence is pure criminality. But the most
interesting thing is the super-"Novichok".
After the poisoning of the Skripals in Salisbury (let us recount the usual version of
events that happened there), about 50 more people sought medical help. Houses were taken
apart, pets were destroyed. But here no one except Navalny was hurt: neither the people at
Tomsk airport, nor the fellow travellers with whom he, having the terrible poison in his
hands, took a selfie on a bus, nor the passengers on board the aircraft, and he also touched
things there. Symptoms of poisoning should have appeared amongst the passengers, but they did
not. This should raise questions from the authors of the serious newspaper "Die Zeit", but it
does not. A weapon of mass destruction by any reasoning, but the longer the German press
examines the Navalny case, the more mediaeval and grotesque it becomes. And it works -- you
can see it even from the reaction of quite moderate politicians.
Already a week and a half ago, Merkel announced the results of a toxicological
examination, allegedly carried out in a secret laboratory of the Bundeswehr (yes, Navalny was
poisoned), opponents of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline have intensified their onslaught
against the federal government in order to stop the construction, they say, this is the only
way to punish Russia. At the head of the column are the party leaders of the Greens and those
associates of Merkel who are friendly with Washington and have plans for higher party or
administrative posts after the Chancellor leaves.
These voices were at least heard. In an evening talk show on ZDF, German Foreign
Minister Heiko Maas made it clear that the shutdown of Nord Stream 2 could be one
response.
"We cannot say that since the sanctions do not work, then there is no need to introduce
any. Sometimes we have to put up with the risk of the consequences, thereby saying that we do
not want to live in a world without rules", Maas said.
Now Herr Maas, along with many members of the government and administration and the
Chancellor, lives in a world of very strange rules. Merkel's press secretary Seibert
reiterated that Germany will interact with Russia exclusively at the site of the Organization
for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), where all the documents allegedly have
already been sent.
The OPCW Technical Secretariat informed our permanent representative, Alexander
Shulgin, that Berlin had only sent a notification about Navalny's poisoning, a sheet of A4
paper, but there is still nothing that the experts could work on. But the Germans had to
formulate a response to the proposal of the Russian Prosecutor General's Office on exchange
of information: any information about the state of Navalny can be transferred to Russia only
with his permission.
This was the case in 2004. The Charité clinic then diagnosed the presidential
candidate of the Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko with dioxin poisoning -- no one ever saw
documentary evidence. Yushchenko then for 4 years, while he was of interest he was to the
public, promised to show everything, but he never did.
This trick can be repeated again, the main thing is to find the answer to an urgent
task: to inflate the level of confrontation between Russia and Germany, and therefore the
entire West, in order to force the Russian authorities to be as cautious as possible in their
domestic and foreign policy, for example, in the Belarusian direction.
However, the fact that Nord Stream 2, for which the German federal government was ready
to support unto death, suddenly became an instrument of blackmail -- admit the poisoning,
otherwise we can close it down -- openly outraged German business and regional
elites.
"It seems that the verdict has already been given -- there are demands that
construction of the pipeline be stopped. I strongly oppose such measures", said Michael
Kretschmer, Prime Minister of Saxony.
"We have had absolutely trusting cooperation with Russia in the energy sector for 50
years. And even in the most difficult political times, which were probably even more
difficult during the Cold War, we managed to maintain this trust", emphasized Michael Harms,
executive director of Eastern Committee of the German economy.
Even a true transatlantist, the president of the Munich Security Conference Wolfgang
Ischinger, stood up for Nord Stream 2 (and Denmark had joined the renewed US incitement
against it the day before).
Political games will not pass themselves of as force majeure. Investors will go to the
German government for their money. Here you need to think ten times, because along with the
demands of multibillion-dollar compensation, there will definitely be asked unpleasant
questions about the reasons that made the German authorities abandon a project that was
profitable to all sides. So you can go to Navalny's analyses. In a normal court, bureaucratic
excuses will not work. And, by the way, in Germany there are politician-lawyers who can
professionally draw up a claim and conduct a case.
"I want to investigate this. One of the developers of Novichok is in the US. It is
known that many special services have this poison. Of course, the Russian have it as well,
but if Putin did it, then why give Navalny to Germany? So that we can establish all this
here? A crime must have some logic", says Bundestag deputy Gregor Gizi.
The logic that we now see is somehow not German. One gets the impression that the
compassion and humanism of the German politician, brought up on the lessons of the past, are
now being tried out by smart and cynical people who know how to competently fabricate,
substitute and cover their tracks. And not too far away, we already had Britain.
At the end of May 2003, the BBC released material that Prime Minister Blair and his
cabinet had made a decision to enter the war in Iraq based on falsified intelligence. The
person who passed on this information to reporters was David Kelly, a leading chemical
weapons specialist at the British Department of Defence. His speech at the parliamentary
hearings threatened the prime minister, the military and the secret services with big
problems, Hiwever, on July 18, 2003, Kelly was found dead in the woods near his home.
Suicide, the investigation stated, but in 2007, a group of parliamentarians conducted an
unofficial investigation -- there were no legal consequences, but now all British people know
that Kelly was murdered in cold blood.
In 2015, Blair was forced to admit that he lied to citizens about Iraq, and escaped
trial only because no one wanted to get involved with it. Nevertheless, Blair has gone down
in history with this lie. And history is important to remember in order to do it right.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov calls on the Germans to leave emotions and turn on
their brains.
"I hope that these absurd actions will be stopped and Germany, at least for the sake of
the reputation of German punctuality, will fulfill its obligations under the agreement with
the Russian Federation. Moreover, they are demanding an investigation from us, but it turns
out that all those who accompanied Navalny are slowly moving to Germany too. this is very
unpleasant and leads to serious thoughts. Therefore, it is in the interests of our German
colleagues to protect their reputation and provide all the necessary information that would
somehow shed light on their so far absolutely unfounded accusations", Lavrov said.
Another proposal has gone from Moscow to Berlin: to send a Russian investigation team
to Germany in order to jointly study the circumstances of the case, the victim of which is a
Russian citizen. So far, there is no reason to believe that Berlin will respond with
consent.
Some German politicians and almost all the SMS likes to moralize against Russia,
periodically recalling the Stalinist repressions and the GULAG. But now Germany itself
behaves like an investigator during interrogation in the dungeons of the NKVD. Confession is
the queen of proof.*
There are undeniable advantages to accusations for which no substantiation is offered
– as we saw with the Skripals, you can await public comment, identify where you went
wrong from scornful rejections of the narrative, and then modify it so that it makes more
sense.
In this case, people wonder why such a potent nerve agent did not fell Navalny instantly
like a poleaxed ox, before he ever left the terminal, instead of 40 minutes or so into the
flight. Ahhh but this, we later learn, was a specially-modified Novichok, engineered to be
slow-acting. Just what you want in a nerve agent. Hint – no, it isn't. Just like you
don't want it specially engineered to be 'persistent', like that chemical-warfare expert tit
for Bellingcat claimed was the reason the poison daubed on Skripal's doorknob did not wash
away in the rain and was still deadly weeks afterward. You want a nerve agent to quickly and
efficiently kill enemy troops caught in the open and unprotected, and then as quickly degrade
and disperse so your own forces can move in and occupy the objective. The last thing you want
is it hanging about for weeks, or being 'slow-acting' so those troops can come in and wax
your ass and then later fall down dead. One of the first casualties of these silly stories
must be that the agent is 'military grade'. The military would say, if you want to use that
useless shite, spread it yourself – we want nothing to do with it.
navalny Hi, this is Navalny. I miss you all 😍. I still can hardly do
anything, but yesterday I was able to breathe on my own all day. Generally myself. I did not
use any outside help, not even the simplest valve in my throat. I liked it very much. An
amazing, underestimated by many thing. Would totally recommend.
What, no tracheotomy scar?
Why aren't you dead, you wanker?
Thinking about thanking the Omsk doctors who "saved your life" after you had taken a dose
of salts in the aircraft shithouse?
I take it that the kiddie Navalnyites in the above Instagram are all Russian citizens and
part of the Bullshitter's entourage that turned up in Berlin, hot on the heels of their
comatose hero.
So how did they get the documentation that enabled them to leave the Mafia State and enter
Germany, the coronavirus shamdemic notwithstanding?
Yes, they are his children. Navalnaya clearly got permission for their son to travel to
Germany. His daughter has flown in from the USA.
However, the question still remains as regards those Navalnyites who rolled up in Germany
following their leader's private flight there: how did they get the appropriate documentation
to do so at such short notice, not to mention Pevchikh, who flew with the comatose Navalny to
Berlin -- and then vanished?.
Seibert was asked about this and said he knew nothing about her.
Ah, yes; that's a good point. I just assumed the hamsters were blathering from a distance,
as in Russia. I did not realize some of them had turned up in Germany, except for the
mysterious Masha.
I hope Germany offers residency to the Navalnys, and that they accept. Russia can't
really refuse to let him back in, he's a citizen. But as long as he is there he will cause
trouble, and he'll be recharged with all the PR he has received from this latest
caper.
But it is suggested that Russia is bargaining for his return; the story also expands
on Lavrov's recent statements, and introduces a villain in the woodpile I would not have
personally suspected: Poland.
I recall Lavrov querying the other day Pevchikh's presence in Germany, her refusal to
be interviewed by investigators in Omsk and how come she managed to fly to Germany with
Navalny? He also said that other supporters of Navalny had also turned up in
Germany.
I lay a pound to a pinch of shit that Pevchikh is a British agent.
British and other international toxicological experts say that without technical
reporting by the laboratory of the spectrometric composition of the chemical, and without
identifying the compound by the international naming protocol there is no evidence at
all;..
the US Army had recently manufactured its own Novichok types: "A230, A232 and A234 A232
has a CAS number of 2308498-31-7. A230 and A234 have no known CAS numbers."
####
I reckon Khordokovsky has a hand in this. He has the same moral compass as dead
Berezovsky. None. And he has refused to stick to agreements (keep out of politics). If the
British or someone else get fingered for this cunning plan , would they serve him up
on a silver platter? Almost certainly so.
We certainly did well to focus on Maria Pevchikh as soon as we discovered that in
addition to being the one who evaded questioning by Russian authorities by flying out to
Germany, she also had British residency. She certainly has become a "person of interest" and
could well be the major individual in the plot to incapacitate Navalny and use him to
pressure Germany over NSII and Russia over the Belarus unrest.
It is still unknown whether Pevchikh is a British citizen. I think she is and probably
must be, in fact, for if she is only a visa holder or an applicant for UK citizenship, she
could be told by the Home Office to go take a hike if it is proven that she was instrumental
in the poisoning plot.
When Berezovsky got cocky in the UK after a judge there had prevented his being forced to
leave Misty Albion because Berzovsky had persuaded him that were he to return to Mordor, he
would face an unfair trial and his life would be in danger -- the erstwhile "Godfather of the
Kremlin" had arrived in the with a 6-month visitor's visa -- he started bragging to the
"Guardian" that he was organizing with his chums still in the Evil Empire the overthrow of
the tyrant Putin.
The Home Secretary at the time was none other than "Jack" Straw -- another odious pile of
ordure -- who promptly summonsed Berezovsky to the Home Office for an official bollocking. He
was told that if, while resident in the UK, he continued to engage himself with the overthrow
of a foreign head of state, he was out.
Be that as it may, I am quite sure he was working with British state security, as was his
once favoured acolyte Litvinenko.
Litvinenko was poisoned. Berezovsky committed suicide -- they say.
Россия задала
ЕС девять
вопросов об
обвинениях в
ситуации с
Навальным
Постоянное
представительство
России при
Евросоюзе
указало на
ключевые
нестыковки в
версии об
отравлении
Алексея
Навального
15 сентября 2020
Russia has asked the EU nine questions about accusations in the situation with
Navalny
The Permanent Representative of Russia to the European Union has pointed out the key
inconsistencies in the version about the poisoning of Alexei Navalny
15 September 2020
In the eighth question, Russian diplomats drew attention to a bottle of water, on
which, according to Germany, traces of poison had been found: "Not a single surveillance
camera recorded how Navalny drank from a similar bottle at the Tomsk airport [before
departure]. from this bottle earlier or on board the plane, how did this bottle get to
Berlin? "
Ask Pevchikh! Only she is now probably undergoing debriefing in London at UK Secret
Intelligence Services HQ, 85 Albert Embankment.
Navalny, if indeed he was close to death, must now realize he was set up by one of his own
benefactors. What would be his next move? Going back to Russia would make the most sense as
the Russians may actually protect him from another show-assassination and he would have
freedom to prance around to his heart's content.
I don't believe he was ever 'close to death', rather that he was an active part of the
deception. He is a grifting idiot who puffs up like a toad upon being flattered. He could
never win power in Russia legitimately, as he is mostly a figure of contempt in Russia save
for the perennially-discontented children of the liberal elite and the few Americaphiles who
don't know enough to keep their heads down. I believe he played his role by taking something
that would nauseate him but not seriously hurt him, rolling about and screaming, and that the
introduction of the phony 'poison bottle' was with his full knowledge. I wish Russia would
just disown him and tell the Germans they can have him.
However, I could be wrong. We will know from the tone of his remarks when he feels he is
strong enough to once again assume his president-in-waiting role, and starts spouting off
about what happened to him. He is the most likely candidate to be selected to get the
water-bottle narrative back on track, so if he comes out with an explanation for how he drank
from the bottle somewhere there were no surveillance cameras, and noticed a sketchy-looking
guy in a leather jacket and a "Vote For Putin!" T-shirt standing nearby just before he drank,
it will be a pretty good indication that he is as full of shit as ever.
There was considerable risk involved in the deception. I doubt that Navalny went into
the deception willingly. There was a very real risk that he could have suffered some brain
damage going into the first coma and that's sure to compromise his health in the long term in
other ways.
More likely it seems a lot of the deception was planned behind Navalny's back and
people were waiting for an opportunity to carry it out. It may have been planned years ago
for someone else and then switched to Navalny once he was in the Omsk hospital. Julia
Navalnaya may have been pushed into demanding that Navalny be transferred to Berlin and while
the Omsk hospital doctors were stabilising him for the transfer, the deception then started
going into action in Germany.
Lavrov smelt a rat several days ago -- last week, I'm sure -- when he stated that
suspicions had been aroused by one of Navalny's gang refusing to answer investigators'
questions in Omsk and then scarpering off to Germany.
I'm quite sure the FSB already knew of Pevchikh's comings and goings between London
and Moscow (over 60 flights there and back I read somewhere) and her activities with the
Navalny organization.
Perhaps they allowed Navalny to leave for Germany -- with Pevchikh flying out with him, I
may add -- because they knew what was afoot and would later expose the Germans for liars, or
if not that, then for their falling to a sucker punch off the British secret service.
They certainly allowed Pevchikh to leave Russia: she didn't sneak on board Navalny's
private flight.
Just Pevchikh, note, not Navalnaya, who is not a British agent, I'm sure.
Certainly possible – as I say, we will know more from his blabber once he starts
giving interviews, which he lives to do. His tone will have changed considerably if he
believes his erstwhile chums in politics intended to martyr him. Otherwise I read his
expressed desire to return at once to Russia as simply remaining in character – the
selfless hero risking all for freedom and democracy.
I wonder how he will thank the doctors in Omsk for saving his life, as it is generally
acknowledged they did. He cannot go into transports of admiration for their professional
skills, because they claimed to have found no trace of poisoning in his samples. He faces the
choice, then, of simply passing over it without mention, or accusing the people who saved his
life of 'being part of the machine'. Doing either will certainly not increase his popularity
in Russia. And it makes no difference at all how popular he is in the west – something
the west seemingly cannot be taught.
Die Zeit сообщила о
предложении
США от ФРГ по
"Северному
потоку -- 2"
RT на русском, 16
сентября 2020
Die Zeit announced the proposal of the USA from Germany for the "Nord Stream –
2
RT in Russian, September 16, 2020
The German government has offered the United States a deal in exchange for Washington's
waiver of sanctions against Nord Stream 2.
This is reported by the newspaper Die Zeit, citing sources
It is noted that Berlin has expressed its readiness to invest up to € 1 billion in
the construction of two terminals in Germany for receiving liquefied natural gas from the
United States.
"In response, the United States will allow the unhindered completion and operation of
Nord Stream 2", TASS quotes the text of a letter from German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz,
which was sent on August 7 to the head of the US Treasury, Stephen Mnuchin.
In early August, US senators sent a letter to the operator of the German port of
Sassnitz calling for an end to work to support the construction of Nord Stream 2.
Very true about the term "loser" being a harsh insult for Americans. The "loser" tag
starts to be applied to kids in early grade school and only intensifies from that point. The
glorification of success (defined by the level of conspicuous consumption) further sharpens
the divide between losers and winners. Our "feel-good" stories are often about individuals
who were able to transform themselves from "losers" to "winners". American culture is
one-dimensional in that way.
Building an LNG terminal is one thing, buying US LNG is another thing. In addition, I
believe that Russia could provide LNG to Germany as well and likely at a substantially lower
price.
The US may settle for this gesture as it does hold the door open, however slightly, for
future developments to be leveraged by the US to force Germany to reduce or stop gas
purchases from Russia. Having the terminal in place could make a future change in suppliers
more feasible and faster but nevertheless representing an economic disaster for Germany. Lets
call it step 1 in Plan B.
On the other hand any diplomatic/economic success plays well in this presidential erection
year. So a) is it worth it?; b) can they reverse the decision the day after? I assume they
can have their cake and eat it as Brussels is mostly spineless. Borrell can squeal about
Russia, but that's because he can do f/k all about the USA's behavior, being spokeshole and
all
That's what people seem not to get – the decision would not ever be 'reversible'
once Nord Stream II is complete. That pipeline quad alone can carry all of Europe's gas
supply that it receives from Russia. None through Ukraine, not a whiff, if that is Moscow's
will, although the Russians have agreed to transit token amounts, which the Ukrainians say
are not enough to make the system's continued operation viable – without the large
volumes they are accustomed to handling, they will have to progressively begin shutting down,
bypassing and dismantling sections they can no longer afford to maintain.
So long as the pipeline's future remains in doubt, Uncle Sam can sell the philosophical
possibility of supplying Europe with large volumes of cheap LNG via tankers, made desirable
– although it will cost a little more, no getting around that – for political
reasons. Once Nord Stream II is complete, the reality of a reliable supply of cheap pipeline
gas would have to be countered with a concrete offer from the USA; this many cubic meters
times this many Euros. Any housewife can do a cost-benefit analysis at that level. Do you
want to pay more for American gas just because it comes from America? Well, let me think
about it – what are the benefits? Well, it comes from America! What, you mean, that's
it? There would be no possibility the Americans would use their status as a major energy
supplier as leverage to bring about economic or political changes in Europe that they
desired, would there? Well I can't guarantee that.
You know what? I'm okay with Russian gas, thanks just the same. Maybe I'll use the money I
save to buy a Ford – how's that?
Pathetic. After declaring forcefully that American extraterritorial sanctions are illegal
– which, technically, they are, only America has a right to threaten to limit European
trade in America if it wishes; although that, too is illegal under WTO rules – Germany
is now cowering and trying to 'make a deal'. With Trump, in case anyone missed that, whose
'Art of the Deal' consists of destroying the opponent until he is happy to have escaped with
his life, and will never publicly complain about a 'deal' which came out very much to his
disadvantage. Put another way, offering America a 'deal' only highlights that you believe you
are in a weak position, are looking for mercy, and are ripe for the plucking. Germany was
already planning to build the heaviest concentration of LNG terminals in Europe; a far better
strategy would have been to threaten to cancel them all if Uncle Sam did not back off. The
Americans are certainly smart enough to figure out – in about 2.5 seconds – that
more LNG terminals means diddly when Russia can also supply LNG far cheaper than the USA
because it has teensy transport costs by comparison, being much closer. Two more LNG
terminals buys America precisely zero advantage, but the willingness to 'deal' reveals
vulnerability. The only American response to rolling on your back to expose your belly is to
step on your head.
I swear, it is hard to recognize Germany as the country which once frightened the
world.
A Trump counter-offer might be a commitment from Germany to buy X amount of American LNG
at a locked-in price, said amount to be sufficient that extra Nord Stream capacity would not
be utilized. It depends on whether the Americans really think they can actually stop Nord
Stream II, because even that would ultimately be a loser strategy. Unless a term far into the
future were specified, the Americans know that once the pipeline is finished, their product
is no longer competitive and cannot ever be unless it is unprofitable to themselves. They
could satisfy themselves with gutting the Germans for a year or two (if they accepted), but
it would be short-term satisfaction at best. Might be enough to win Trump the election,
though.
But if Washington thinks it can actually halt Nord Stream II – with the
understanding that the Russians would probably give up after such a stinging second rebuke
– then the sky is the limit, and they will scornfully reject any other solution. The
one who stands to get hurt the most is Europe. But I don't think they realize
it.
The Borgias are history. Well, obviously, they ARE history. But now they have been
relegated to the Second Division/Championship (football joke) of Poisoners by Sergei Lavrov
and his chef de cuisine:
Oh look! The Navalnyites have shown a video, shot in Tomsk, of Navalny drinking from the
allegedly poisoned water bottle that earlier nobody had seen or made mention of before it
turned up in Berlin and was sent to the Bundeswehr lab.
Recall that his loud-mouth spokeswoman had from the very start insisted that Navalny had
been poisoned by laced-with-poison tea that he had drunk at Tomsk airport.
Change of story line -- as persistently happened in the Skripal fake.
Video Showing Water Bottle That 'Poisoned' Alexei Navalny Shared by His Team
17 September, 2020: 10:17
That Sputnik headline should read, I think, "shared with his team".
And if that is the case, why didn't his team also start howling and screaming and rolling
around on the deck some time later on board the Tomsk-Moscow flight?
Navalny's companions have reported that they took bottles from a hotel room in
Tomsk
Alexei Navalny's companions have said that a bottle of mineral water, on which German
experts had allegedly found traces of poison from the Novichok group, had been brought from a
hotel room in Tomsk.
On an Instagram, they have posted a video in which, according to them, an hour after
news of Navalny's deteriorating condition, they examine the room and seize all the items
which he had been able to touch.
On August 20, the aeroplane in which Navalny was flying urgently landed in Omsk, from
where the blogger was taken to hospital. On August 21, doctors announced that the main
diagnosis was metabolic disorders.
At the moment, Navalny is in Germany, where he has been taken out of an artificial
coma. German doctors announced that he had been poisoned with substances from the Novichok
group, but did not provide any relevant evidence.
So why didn't the Navalny hamsters, who dutifully sought out the poison bottle and most
certainly handled it, throw wobblers as did Navalny when performing what he thought were the
effects of nerve agent poisoning?
And whom did the hamsters hand the bottle to -- Navalnaya or Pevchikh? And who handled the
bottle after its arrival in Berlin and before the obliging Bundeswehr said it had been dosed
with the most lethal nerve agent (weapons grade) known to man?
Why isn't there a trail of stiffs from Tomsk to Berlin and beyond?
Who's going to believe this shite?
"Why, the whole world knows it's true!" will Imperial Plenipotentiary Pompeus Fattus Arsus
surely say.
One of the developers of Novichok, Leonid Rink, commented on reports that a bottle in
the Tomsk hotel where Alexei Navalny had stayed could [have been] Novichok
[contaminated] .
"This is a situation where no one would have been allowed to touch the bottle -- you
would have died if you had done so. If this had really been the case, then there would have
basically been a deceased person, and everyone who had carried this bottle without gloves and
protection would also have died", he told RIA Novosti.
Ah, but . . . Rink is forgetting that it was a special, delayed action Novichok made to
take effect on "Putin's Fiercest Critic" when he was on board the Tomsk-Moscow flight.
Rink's an old Soviet has-been and knows nothing about the latest developments in
diabolical weaponry that issues forth from secret Orc laboratories.
Maybe the cunning developers have produced a Novichok variant safe to those who have
sinned but fatal (or liable, at least, to provoke a severe tummy upset, occasionally) to the
purest of heart?
I like this idea of the special edition of Novichok with the delayed kick. Maybe we could
call it Brawndo and speculate that the poison only goes into action when it does because the
added electrolytes take time to work to release the poison.
Alexei Navalny's team immediately after his departure from Tomsk airport, went to the
hotel room in that city where he had spent the night, and packed all the items (including
water bottles) so as to deliver them for analysis (of course, not in Russia). A video about
this was posted on the oppositionist's Instagram.
Everything in this story is beautiful. Navalny's supporters were collecting "evidence"
on a case that had not yet happened -- but it was already supposed to have happened? Together
with them, there went a lawyer to the hotel -- he was also at the ready. But why were none of
the "trackers" hurt if on the "evidence", as is said, they found traces of the "Novichok"
military poison? And how did the "people of Navalny" end up in a room where cleaning up
should have been done after the guest's departure? There are other questions as well. Some of
them "KP" asked FSB reserve general Alexander Mikhailov .
And the person shown handling the bottle is wearing gloves – they made sure to show
that. But as others have pointed out, this was well before anyone knew 'an attempt had been
made on the Opposition Leader's life'. What, all Lyosha's shit was still in his hotel room,
towels on the floor, the next day, after he checked out? Pretty crappy service in those
Russian hotels. He didn't even leave Russia for several days, and the first suggestions he
had been poisoned came from his 'press agent', who claimed he had been poisoned with tea at
the airport.
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Sergei Yerofeyev, a professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey, USA, has spoken about
this.
According to Yerofeyev, Navalny has been nominated for the prize by "a number of
professors from recognized universities who deal with Russia". He did not give specific
names, but noted that there are "great people" amongst the scientists who have nominated
Navalny.
A professor of any university in the world can nominate a candidate for the Nobel Peace
Prize: there are no specific requirements for a candidate. In addition, members of national
governments and parliaments, heads of state and some other categories of persons can nominate
candidates.
The oppositionist will have to fight for the main prize of the planet with venerable
rivals.
This is, first of all, US President Donald Trump, who was nominated by Christian
Tubring-Jedde, a member of the Norwegian parliament from the far-right Libertarian Progress
Party. As the MP said in an interview with Fox News, Donald Trump should be awarded for his
role in concluding an agreement on the full normalization of relations between Israel and the
UAE.
And why not? O'Bummer was awarded the peace prize, wasn't he?
I wonder how the Kiev Post evaluates Navalny's position on the Crimea?
The status of the Crimea is a problem that a new democratic Russia will inherit from
its former government. The Russian position on this problem will be determined by the
recognition of the right of the citizens of the Crimea to determine their own destiny
-- Navalny
20!8
I say give it to him. Let him join the prestigious ranks of Obama, the OPCW, the EU.
I also propose starting a Nobel War Prize, to be awarded to whatever individual or
organization is responsible for the highest body count in a given year. Although that may be
redundant, considering that it would probably be given to the same people as the Peace
Prize.
Ha, ha!! And it all descends into farce, again. Navalny has arrived – he has gone
global, beyond his wildest dreams. The nothing from Wherever He Is From who could not even
break 5% in presidential election polling is now a major star, glittering in the western
firmament. As Saint Lily Tomlin once remarked, no matter how cynical you get, you can never
keep up.
All the west is going to be able to get out of this is the satisfaction of showing its ass
to the neo-Soviets, the way it does when it re-names the street the Russian Embassy is
– or was – located on after some prominent Russian dissident. Beavis and Butthead
level, at best.
That's it! This is a farewell article. A real goodbye to the topic. More precisely,
parting with Navalny as a topic. His political role has been played to the end. And even
lethal doses of Novichok have not caused a mass movement. Furgal's arrest caused an explosion
of civil consciousness in Khabarovsk. The poisoning of Navalny, sending him abroad, the
discovery of Novichok, official accusations from Germany did not cause any rally, no
procession, no movement. No excitement in civic consciousness has occurred and will never
happen.
Construction of Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany is about 94%
completed.
The project is all about supplying Germany and other European countries with readily
available low-cost Russian natural gas -- around 30% cheaper than US liquified natural gas
(LNG).
Both right wings of the US one-party state want the pipeline halted to benefit US
producers at Russia's expense.
US sanctions on the project breach international law, Germany's Angela Merkel earlier saying
"(w)e oppose extraterritorial sanctions (W)e don't accept" them.
"We haven't backed down (on wanting Nord Stream 2 completed) nor do we intend to back
down."
Last December, German Foreign Minister Heiko Mass said "European energy policy is decided
in Europe, not the United States. We reject any outside interventions and extraterritorial
sanctions."
Did the novichok poisoning of Putin critic Alexey Navalny hoax change things?
During a September 24 – 25 summit of EU leaders, the future of Nord Stream 2 will be
discussed. Ahead of the summit, Merkel's government offered to invest around one billion euros
(about $1.2 billion) in construction of two terminals in Germany for US LNG.
According to the German broadsheet Die Zeit, by letter to Trump regime Treasury Secretary
Mnunchin in August, German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said the
following:
"In exchange (for Berlin's proposed LNG investment), the US will allow unobstructed
finalization and use of Nord Stream 2," adding:
"(E)xisting legal options for (challenging US) sanctions (on firms involved in the
project) have not been exhausted yet."
The broadsheet added that Scholz first expressed Berlin's proposal verbally, confirming it
by letter. Proposed German LNG terminals would be built in Brunsbuttel and Wilhelmshaven.
Berlin's proposal also included a gas transit contract for Ukraine and financing of a terminal
for Poland's use of US LNG.
Following the Navalny false flag, opinion on completing Nord Stream 2 in Germany is divided.
Merkel still supports the project as evidenced by her government's offer to build two terminals
for US LNG in exchange for dropping sanctions on the pipeline by the US.
Last June, US Senate hardliners proposed legislation to expand Nord Stream 2 related
sanctions.
It targets all nations and enterprises involved in the project, including underwriting,
insurance and reinsurance companies.
At the time, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said Russia will complete construction of the project
on its own -- expected to be operational in January or shortly thereafter. Last month, German
Foreign Minister Heiko Mass expressed "displeasure" to Pompeo about US sanctions on the
project. Last week, Polish government spokesman Piotr Muller was quoted saying the
following:
"Poland has from the very beginning emphasized that European solidarity (on Nord Stream 2)
should be unambiguous."
"Therefore, if such a need is expressed by the German side, Poland is open to the idea of
using the infrastructure which it is building for its own energy security."
His remark followed German media reports that Merkel said a decision by her government on
Nord Stream 2 has not been made in light of the Navalny incident. German officials supporting
the project stressed that the country will be the main beneficiary of its completion
economically, environmentally and strategically. Construction on the proposed 800 – 950
km Baltic Pipe gas pipeline from Norwegian North Sea waters to Poland hasn't begun.
If completed in October 2022 as proposed, it'll be able to deliver about 10 billion cubic
meters of natural gas annually -- less than 20% of Nord Stream 2's 55 billion annual cubic
meter capacity.
Berlin earlier was skeptical about the project because of environmental concerns. Days
earlier, Polish energy expert Jakub Wiech called it "pointless" to compare Baltic Pipe to Nord
Stream 2, given the latter project's far greater capacity and ability to provide gas to other
Western European countries. A day after the Navalny incident last month, Merkel said Nord
Stream 2 will be completed regardless of threatened new US sanctions on firms involved in the
project.
Separately on Wednesday, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Nord Stream 2's completion
should not be raised in discussing the Navalny incident.
"It should stop being mentioned in the context of any politicization."
"This is a commercial project that is absolutely in line with the interests of both Russia
and European Union countries, and primarily Germany."
No evidence links Russia to Navalny's illness. Whatever caused it wasn't from a novichok
nerve agent, the deadliest know substance able to kill exposed individuals in minutes. Over
three weeks after falling ill, Navalny is very much alive, recuperating in a Berlin hospital,
and able to be ambulatory for short periods.
A Final Comment
On September 14, CNBC reported the following:
"Experts say Berlin is unlikely to (abandon Nord Stream 2 that's) over 94% completed after
almost a decade's construction, involv(ing) major German and European companies, and is
necessary for the region's current and future energy needs," adding:
"In this case, economic and commercial interests could trump political pressure" against
Russia.
Chief eurozone economist Carsten Brzeski said he doesn't see "Germany pulling out of the
project Many (in the country) are still in favor of it."
CNBC noted that
"Germany has been reluctant to link the fate of its involvement with Nord Stream 2 to the
Navalny incident so far, and (FM Heiko) Maas conceded that stopping the building of the
pipeline would hurt not only Russia but German and European firms."
"(O)ver 100 companies from 12 European countries" are involved in the project about half
of them from Germany."
*
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Award-winning author Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. He can be reached at [email protected] . He is a Research
Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG)
His new book as editor and contributor is titled "Flashpoint in Ukraine: US Drive for
Hegemony Risks WW III."
"... German Chancellor Angela Merkel personally announced at a press conference last week that a chemical weapons laboratory of the Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) had proved "beyond doubt" that Navalny was the victim of an attack using the Novichok nerve agent. She called on the Russian government to answer "very serious questions." ..."
"... At a special session of the Parliamentary Control Committee, which meets in secret, representatives of the German government and the secret services left no doubt, according to media reports, that the poisoning of Navalny had been carried out by Russian state authorities, with the approval of the Russian leadership. The poison was said to be a variant of the warfare agent -- one even more dangerous than that used in the Skripal case in Britain. It purportedly could enter the body simply through inhalation, and its production and use required skills possessed only by a state actor. ..."
"... Excerpt of an article by Peter Schwarz published by wsws.org ..."
The relationship between Germany and Russia has reached its lowest point since Berlin
supported the pro-Western coup in Ukraine six years ago and Russia subsequently annexed the
Crimean Peninsula.
The German government is openly accusing the Russian state of poisoning opposition
politician Alexei Navalny, who is currently in Berlin's Charité Clinic. He reportedly
awoke from a coma on Monday.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel personally announced at a press conference last week
that a chemical weapons laboratory of the Bundeswehr (Armed Forces) had proved "beyond doubt"
that Navalny was the victim of an attack using the Novichok nerve agent. She called on the
Russian government to answer "very serious questions."
At a special session of the Parliamentary Control Committee, which meets in secret,
representatives of the German government and the secret services left no doubt, according to
media reports, that the poisoning of Navalny had been carried out by Russian state authorities,
with the approval of the Russian leadership. The poison was said to be a variant of the warfare
agent -- one even more dangerous than that used in the Skripal case in Britain. It purportedly
could enter the body simply through inhalation, and its production and use required skills
possessed only by a state actor.
Germany and the European Union are threatening Russia with sanctions. The German government
has even questioned the completion of the almost finished Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline,
which it had categorically defended against pressure from the US and several Eastern European
states.
The German media has gone into propaganda mode, repeating the accusations against Russian
President Vladimir Putin with a thousand variations. Seventy-nine years after Hitler's invasion
of the Soviet Union, which claimed more than 25 million lives, German journalists and
politicians, in editorials, commentaries and on talk shows, speak with the arrogance of people
who are already planning the next military campaign against Moscow.
Anyone who expresses doubts or contradicts the official narrative is branded a "conspiracy
theorist." This is what happened to Left Party parliamentarian Sevim Dagdelen, among others, on
Sunday evening's "Anne Will" talk show. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) foreign policy
expert Norbert Röttgen, the head of the Munich Security Conference Wolfang Ischinger and
former Green Party Environment Minister Jürgen Trittin sought to outstrip one another in
their accusations against the Russian government. When Dagdelen gently pointed out that, so
far, no evidence whatsoever has been presented identifying the perpetrators, she was accused of
"playing games of confusion" and "encouraging unspeakable conspiracy theories."
The Russian government denies any responsibility in the Navalny case. It questions whether
Navalny was poisoned at all and has called on the German government to "show its cards" and
present evidence. Berlin, according to Moscow, is bluffing for dirty political
reasons.
Contradictory and implausible
Evidence of the involvement of the Russian state is as contradictory as it is
implausible.
For example, the German authorities have so far published no information or handed evidence
to Russian investigators identifying the chemical with which Navalny was poisoned. Novichok is
merely a generic term for several families of warfare agents.
No explanation has been given as to why no one else showed signs of poisoning from a nerve
agent that is fatal even in the tiniest amounts, if touched or inhaled. Navalny had had contact
with numerous people between the time he boarded the airplane on which he fainted, his entering
the clinic in Omsk where he was first treated, and his transfer to the Charité hospital
in Berlin.
This is only one of many unexplained anomalies in the German government's official story.
Career diplomat Frank Elbe, who headed the office of German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich
Genscher for five years and negotiated the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons as
head of the German delegation in Geneva from 1983 to 1986, wrote on Facebook on Friday: "I am
surprised that the Federal Ministry of Defence concludes that the nerve agent Novichok was used
against Navalny."
Novichok, he wrote, belongs "to the group of super-toxic lethal substances that cause
immediate death." It made no sense, he argued, to modify a nerve poison that was supposed to
kill instantly in such a way that it did not kill, but left traces behind allowing its
identification as a nerve agent.
There was something strange about this case, Elbe said. "Either the perpetrators -- whoever
they might be -- had a political interest in pointing to the use of nerve gas, or foreign
laboratories were jumping to conclusions that are in line with the current general negative
attitude towards Russia."
The assertion that only state actors can handle Novichok is also demonstrably false. The
poison was sold in the 1990s for small sums of money to Western secret services and economic
criminals, and the latter made use of it. For example, in 1995, the Russian banker Ivan
Kiwelidi and his secretary were poisoned with it. The chemist Leonid Rink confessed at the time
in court that he had sold quantities to criminals sufficient to kill hundreds of people. Since
the binary poisons are very stable, they can last for decades.
The Navalny case is not the reason, but the pretext for a new stage in the escalation of
German great power politics and militarism. The media hysteria over Navalny is reminiscent of
the Ukrainian crisis of 2014, when the German press glorified a coup d'état carried out
by armed fascist militias as a "democratic revolution."
Social Democrat Frank-Walter Steinmeier, then foreign minister and now German president,
personally travelled to Kiev to persuade the pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, to
resign.
He also met with the fascist politician Oleh Tyahnybok, whose Swoboda Party glorifies Nazi
collaborators from World War II. Yanukovych's successor, Petro Poroshenko, one of the country's
richest oligarchs, was even more corrupt than his predecessor. He terrorised his opponents with
fascist militias, such as the infamous Azov regiment. But he brought Ukraine into NATO's sphere
of influence, which was the real purpose of the coup.
In the weeks before the Ukrainian coup, leading German politicians (including then-President
Joachim Gauck and Steinmeier) had announced a far-reaching reorientation of German foreign
policy. The country was too big "to comment on world politics from the sidelines," they
declared. Germany had to defend its global interests, including by military means.
NATO marched steadily eastward into Eastern Europe, breaking the agreements made at the time
of German reunification in 1990. For the first time since 1945, German soldiers today patrol
the border with Russia. With Ukraine's shift into the Western camp, Belarus is the only
remaining buffer country between Russia and NATO.
Berlin now sees the protests against the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko as an
opportunity to remove this hurdle as well. Unlike in Ukraine, where anti-Russian nationalists
exerted considerable influence, especially in the west of the country, such forces are weaker
in Belarus, where the majority speaks Russian. The working class is playing a greater role in
the resistance to the Lukashenko regime than it did in Ukraine. But Berlin is making targeted
efforts to steer the movement in a pro-Western direction. Forces that appeal for Western
support, such as the presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, are being
promoted.
The dispute over the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, whose discontinuation is
being demanded by more and more German politicians, must also be seen in this context. It was a
strategic project from the very beginning.
The natural gas pipeline, which will double the capacity of Nord Stream 1, which began
operations in 2011, will make Germany independent of the pipelines that run through Ukraine,
Poland and Belarus. These countries not only earn transit fees from the pipelines but have also
used then as a political lever.
With a total capacity of 110 billion cubic metres per year, Nord Stream 1 and 2 together
would carry almost all of Germany's annual gas imports. However, the gas is also to be
transported from the German Baltic Sea coast to other countries.
In addition to Russia's Gazprom, German, Austrian, French and Dutch energy companies are
participating in the financing of the project, which will cost almost €10 billion. The
chairman of the board of directors is former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (Social
Democratic Party), who is a friend of President Putin.
Nord Stream 2 is meeting with fierce opposition in Eastern Europe and the US. These
countries fear a strategic alliance between Berlin and Moscow. In December of last year, the US
Congress passed a law imposing severe sanctions on companies involved in the construction of
the pipeline -- an unprecedented move against nominal allies. The nearly completed construction
came to a standstill because the company operating the special ship for laying the pipes
withdrew. Berlin and Moscow protested vehemently against the US sanctions and agreed to
continue construction with Russian ships, which, however, will not be available until next year
at the earliest.
Excerpt of an article by Peter Schwarz published by wsws.org
That's according to Maximilian Krah, a member of the European Parliament from the
Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The "obscure" case involving the alleged poisoning
of Navalny has been used by the EU establishment to launch another round of Moscow-bashing, he
says.
The lawmaker explained that his fellow MEPs had not, in fact, seen a single piece of
evidence suggesting the Russian government might have had a hand in what happened to
Navalny.
We don't have the evidence... none of the members of parliament who today voted in
favor of sanctions has seen any evidence.
Krah said it was "unrealistic" to expect that Navalny's case would not be
politicized, arguing that it was "absolutely clear" it was being used to push an
anti-Moscow agenda.
On Thursday morning, the EU Parliament passed a resolution calling on member states to
"isolate Russia in international forums," to "halt the Nord Stream 2 project" and
to prioritize the approval of another round of sanctions against Moscow.
The MEP also expressed skepticism about the prospects of the broader public ever getting to
see any evidence linking the opposition figure's sudden illness to Russian foul play.
"Evidence will only get published and provided to Russia if there is public
pressure," he said, adding that he does not see any such pressure building anywhere in the
EU. Until that changes, Berlin is likely to continue demanding "answers" from Moscow
while holding off on requests by Russian for cooperation, Krah believes.
The German MEP also weighed in on the fate of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, suggesting that
the alleged poisoning could work to Washington's benefit, given that the White House has been
seeking to undermine the project, liking Russian gas to Germany, for months. Krah said it was
"clear from the beginning" that the US would try to use the situation to scupper the
project, which he says would make Germany "more independent from American
influence."
The EU resolution, which is not legally binding but acts as an advisory for the bloc's
leaders, was supported by 532 MEPs and opposed by 84, while 72 abstained. Fresh sanctions
against Russia have been mulled by both the EU and US since news about Navalny's alleged
poisoning was made public.
Moscow has repeatedly expressed its readiness to cooperate with Germany in the probe into
the incident, while stressing that the Russian medics who first treated Navalny when he fell
ill found no traces of any poison in his body. The Kremlin has also repeatedly approached
Berlin for data possessed by the German side, but has so far received none.
Think your friends would be interested? Share this story!
Dachaguy 8 hours ago 17 Sep, 2020 02:02 PM
Of course, the investigation is incomplete, but that doesn't stop the EU from levying
"justice." We've seen this before in the Downing Street Memos, where the facts were, "being
fixed around the policy. " Millions of innocent people died as a result. When will people
learn?
Jeff_P 4 hours ago 17 Sep, 2020 06:01 PM
There should be an international commission to look into this false flag. It should be
comprised of Russia and Germany, of course, but no other NATO or European countries and no US
vassal states other than Germany. Other members could be Cuba, China, Venezuela, and maybe
India. And, of course, the US playbook of assignment of guilt without the benefit of evidence
and the exacting of penalties without proving guilt won't fly. Russia might just tell Europe
to go FO and leave PACE and the other organizations that it supports but which insist on
abusing it.
perikleous 6 hours ago 17 Sep, 2020 04:09 PM
If Russia was determined they would say you cannot delay NSII or we cut the Ukraine pipeline
as well, its all or none! Tick Tock Tick Tok, winter is coming soon! Hopefully the Covid 19
won't delay the fuel ships your relying on or the workers who procure the fuel, you know a
2nd wave... is "Highly Likely" and its taking over in the rural areas where the fuel comes
from! Present evidence to a poisoning directed by either the fuel company or the gov't and we
will continue, or just tell your "handlers" go ***, because I do not recall the US severing
weapons sales to Saudi Arabia after Admission to them Severing the head off of (J. Koshoggei)
because the US profits/jobs are bigger than one WaPo Journalists life! Hypocracy in action!
Shelbouy 6 hours ago 17 Sep, 2020 03:46 PM
Germany has offered to help pay for the construction of two LNG terminals in Germany to the
tune of 1 billion plus to the US. to receive US LNG. The US in turn has said then they would
not interfere with the completion of Nord Stream 2 if this were to take place. I am
suggesting that Germany then would have 30% cheaper Russian gas than US LNG, blend these two
prices, hi cost US LNG and low cost Russian gas of Nord Stream 2, and sell to the EU
consumers at a price which would likely be higher than the current rate today, and who would
be the wiser, and who would consumers blame when the price of gas goes up instead of down.
This may, at least temporarily, appease the US while at the same time ensure the completion
of the cheaper Russian supply line, and prevent the diversion of Russian gas to other
customer nations like China, and Germany laughs all the way to the bank. This is only
speculation on my part because I do not know if it would work that way or not. If it did then
Germany would have their cake and eat it. The offer of Germany to the US is however, a fact.
The reasons behind this offer are speculative. After all, it's really all about money anyway.
perikleous Shelbouy 5 hours ago 17 Sep, 2020 04:16 PM
The US would demand a contract/commitment for the fuel based on your yearly usage currently,
if you re neg, they still bill you for it! Then its handled in court while your bank accounts
are frozen and none of the US debt to you is paid until this is resolved. You may win the
hearing/court but the losses from not having access to that money will cost way more!
HimandI 4 hours ago 17 Sep, 2020 05:47 PM
Just more proof that the EU rulers are bought and paid prostitutes.
Jayeshkumar 6 minutes ago 17 Sep, 2020 10:03 PM
May be EU is indirectly suggesting to use the 2nd Pipeline to be used Exclusively for
Transporting the Hydrogen, in the Future!
Congozebilu 2 hours ago 17 Sep, 2020 08:06 PM
From the first minute this Navalny story broke I knew it was aimed at Nordstream. Everyone
who understands geopolitics and also US desperation to sell "freedom gas" knows that
Nordstream was the intended target this Navalny clown show.
ivoivo 1 hour ago 17 Sep, 2020 09:00 PM
apparently there are evidence found in a trash can in his hotel room in omsk, they poisoned
him with novichock in a water they gave it to him and discard a paper cup in a trash can,
standard kremlins procedure, isn't it, what is happening to world intelligence, russians
can't kill some dude that is actually not even important and americans can't stop russian
hackers in meddling in us election
An open and shut case! Clearly Novichok poisoning, a deadly poison made only in Russia,
and the Russians have already used it at least once. The most deadly nerve agent known to man
and part of the brutal armament that Putin's thugs use on their murderous missions.
Germany has denied allegation of falsification of the Navalny case
3 September 2020
MOSCOW, September 3 – RIA Novosti. The statement made by the President of
Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, about the falsification of data on the "poisoning" of Navalny
is not true, the press service of the German Cabinet told RIA Novosti.
Earlier, at a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Lukashenko said that
Minsk had intercepted a conversation between Warsaw and Berlin, which denied allegations of
the blogger's poisoning. He promised that he would give the Russian side a transcript of this
"interesting dialogue, which clearly indicates that this is falsification".
"Of course, Mr. Lukashenko's statement does not correspond to reality. Yesterday the
Federal Chancellor, the Foreign Minister and the Defence Minister expressed their views on
the new circumstances in the Navalny poisoning case There is nothing to add", the cabinet
told the agency.
In Moscow, they noted that they had not yet received this evidence.
"Lukashenko hast just announced this. He said that the material would be transferred to
the FSB. There is no other information yet", Peskov told RIA Novosti.
What a duplicitous creep Lukashenko is!
Always jumping to one side of the fence to the other and thinking he is so smart in doing
so.
Then again, perhaps he has such damning evidence, but even if he had, nobody would believe
it, because Germany, being a vassal state of the USA, is on the side of freedom and
democracy.
"Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit für das deutsche Vaterland" as one sings there to a
well known tune.
A week or so ago it was reported that the EU's carbon tax would also apply to energy
imports (Russian gas etc.) and in the Tass Press Review (?) 'shock' was apparently expressed,
which is weird as de-carbonization (plus more recently a setting in place the necssary
infrastcture for a hydrogen based economy) has been an open and long stated plan by Brussels.
Norway has already invested significant resources in de-carbonizing its gas and is ready to
go.
And in the last couple of days there was a report (RT?) that Russia had jumped onboard the
hydrogen train with a plan to use nuclear created hydrogen (heat, innit?) and Norway style
de-carbonization tech. Will post the links if I can re-find them. Still, interesting
stuff.
" Once Navalny was in Berlin it was only a matter of time before it was declared that he
was poisoned with Novichok. The Russophobes are delighted. This of course eliminates all
vestiges of doubt about what happened to the Skripals, and proves that Russia must be
isolated and sanctioned to death and we must spend untold billions on weapons and security
services. We must also increase domestic surveillance, crack down on dissenting online
opinion. It also proves that Donald Trump is a Russian puppet and Brexit is a Russian
plot.
I am going to prove beyond all doubt that I am a Russian troll by asking the question Cui
Bono?, brilliantly identified by the Integrity Initiative's Ben Nimmo as a sure sign of
Russian influence.
I should state that I have no difficulty at all with the notion that a powerful oligarch
or an organ of the Russian state may have tried to assassinate Navalny. He is a minor
irritant, rather more famous here than in Russia, but not being a major threat does not
protect you against political assassination in Russia.
What I do have difficulty with is the notion that if Putin, or other very powerful Russian
actors, wanted Navalny dead, and had attacked him while he was in Siberia, he would not be
alive in Germany today. If Putin wanted him dead, he would be dead.
Let us first take the weapon of attack. One thing we know about a "Novichok" for sure is
that it appears not to be very good at assassination. Poor Dawn Sturgess is the only person
ever to have allegedly died from "Novichok", accidentally according to the official
narrative. "Novichok" did not kill the Skripals, the actual target. If Putin wanted Navalny
dead, he would try something that works. Like a bullet to the head, or an actually deadly
poison.
"Novichok" is not a specific chemical. It is a class of chemical weapon designed to be
improvised in the field from common domestic or industrial precursors. It makes some sense to
use on foreign soil as you are not carrying around the actual nerve agent, and may be able to
buy the ingredients locally. But it makes no sense at all in your own country, where the FSB
or GRU can swan around with any deadly weapon they wish, to be making homemade nerve agents
in the sink. Why would you do that?
Further we are expected to believe that, the Russian state having poisoned Navalny, the
Russian state then allowed the airplane he was traveling in, on a domestic flight, to divert
to another airport, and make an emergency landing, so he could be rushed to hospital. If the
Russian secret services had poisoned Navalny at the airport before takeoff as alleged, why
would they not insist the plane stick to its original flight plan and let him die on the
plane? They would have foreseen what would happen to the plane he was on.
Next, we are supposed to believe that the Russian state, having poisoned Navalny, was not
able to contrive his death in the intensive care unit of a Russian state hospital. We are
supposed to believe that the evil Russian state was able to falsify all his toxicology tests
and prevent doctors telling the truth about his poisoning, but the evil Russian state lacked
the power to switch off the ventilator for a few minutes or slip something into his drip. In
a Russian state hospital.
Next we are supposed to believe that Putin, having poisoned Navalny with novichok, allowed
him to be flown to Germany to be saved, making it certain the novichok would be discovered.
And that Putin did this because he was worried Merkel was angry, not realising she might be
still more angry when she discovered Putin had poisoned him with novichok
There are a whole stream of utterly unbelievable points there, every single one of which
you have to believe to go along with the western narrative. Personally I do not buy a single
one of them, but then I am a notorious Russophile traitor.
The United States is very keen indeed to stop Germany completing the Nord Stream 2
pipeline, which will supply Russian gas to Germany on a massive scale, sufficient for about
40% of its electricity generation. Personally I am opposed to Nord Stream 2 myself, on both
environmental and strategic grounds. I would much rather Germany put its formidable
industrial might into renewables and self-sufficiency. But my reasons are very different from
those of the USA, which is concerned about the market for liquefied gas to Europe for US
produces and for the Gulf allies of the US. Key decisions on the completion of Nord Stream 2
are now in train in Germany.
The US and Saudi Arabia have every reason to instigate a split between Germany and Russia
at this time. Navalny is certainly a victim of international politics. That he is a victim of
Putin I tend to doubt.
I do hope that Murray was writing cynically when he penned the following words above about
Navalny:
He is a minor irritant, rather more famous here than in Russia
His popularity here is minimal and his political base statistically zilch, the incessant
swamping of the Russian blogosphere with his praise by his hamsters notwithstanding.
I saw one of such hamster's nonsense only the other week in which the retard wrote that
Navalny is the most well-known person in Russia and another post of yet another hamster who
presented a list of policies that the bullshitter would follow "when he becomes
president".
The whole crock of Navalny -- Novichok shite neatly summed up by a comment to Murray's
article linked above:
Goose
September 4, 2020 at 00:28 We're being asked to believe by people calling themselves serious journalists, that the
Kremlin's thought process was thus :
Let's poison this guy with Novichok. Nobody will know it was us and there'll be no
diplomatic fallout.
Completely illogical.
Logic has no part in this machination, dear chap: the people to whom these lies are
directed are fucking stupid: uneducated, brain-dead, browser surfing, soap opera and
"Celebrity Come Dancing" and "Reality TV" and porn watching morons.
Oh yes! And in the UK they're daily fed pap about "The Royals": every day without fail the
UK media presents page after page of "stories" concerning "Kate and Wills" and "Harry and
Megan".
And much of the rest of the UK media is full of shite about "football" and its prima
donnas -- that's "Associated Football" or "soccer" as they prefer to say in North America,
and not "Rugby Football" -- better said: not "Rugby League Football".
Nato has called for Russia to disclose its Novichok nerve agent programme to
international monitors, following the poisoning of activist Alexei Navalny.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said members were united in condemning the
"horrific" attack.
He added there was "proof beyond doubt" that a Novichok nerve agent was used against Mr
Navalny.
Where is the proof????????
You just say so or some "guy" at Porton Down or some Bundeswehr
Scheißkerl laboratories?
Get fucked Stoltenberg!
And Peskov, a word of advice: Shut the fuck up and say nothing.
Don't believe that silence from you will be taken as proof of guilt!
You and the Russian state are guilty of everything as charged by the very nature of the
fact that you are Russian, "the other"!
Sound familiar?
It's what the Nazis said about every Jew: guilty of all accusations because of their
ethnicity -- not their religion, note: Christianized Jews were still "Jews". They were guilty
of all charges from the moment of each and every one's birth as a "Jew".
And the sickening thing is that "woke" arseholes the world over condemn racism, but racism
directed against Russians is fair game.
The US president has received heavy criticism for his reluctance to immediately join
NATO allies in pressing Russia over the Navalny incident, which CNN called "the latest
instance of Trump failing to speak out and call for answers from the Kremlin on issues
ranging from election interference to possible bounties on US troops in Afghanistan."
I presume that the concept of "burden of proof" is now a dead letter in the Free West.
I thought that whole Russia-offered-bounties-for-dead-US-troops thing had been 'debunked'
for good. Several western sources which are sometimes not snapping-turtle crazy said there
was nothing to it. So why are they still citing it?
Alexei Navalny is one of the most important leaders of what passes for political
opposition in President Putin's Russia. Some say he is, in effect, "the" leader of the
opposition in Russia. He has just been the subject of an assassination attempt, and lies in
an induced coma in a German hospital. It's worth repeating: the leader of the opposition to
Vladimir Putin has been poisoned, perhaps fatally, using novichok, a chemical weapon banned
by international treaty. There is little doubt that, in one form or another, formal or
informal agents of the Russian state would have been part of the plot, especially given the
evidence of novichok, and that the highest circles of the Russian establishment would either
have knowledge of the attack, or made it apparent to any shady blah, blah. blah ..
Now don't you folks go and forget, BoJo recently made Evgeny Lebedev, the owner of that
rag and who penned the above shite, a Baronet.
Lebedev has dual Russian/British citizen and has lived in the UK since he arrived there as
an 8-year-old with his KGB papa, who had landed a cushy number at the Soviet Embassy.
Papa Lebedev went back to Russia, where in the immediate post-Soviet years of Russia he
made a mint and became an "oligarch", namely an extremely successful thief who had pillaged
Russia. His son became a UK citizen in 2010.
Evgeny Lebedev is now a life peer and may now plonk his arse (and get paid for doing so!)
in one of the chambers of the British legislature, the one whose members are unelected: they
are there either through their aristocratic "birthright" or are appointees, such as is
Lebedev.
When BoJo appointed Lebedev as a life peer, the moronic Russophobes in the UK accused that
fool of a British PM of being under the Evil One's control.
Just shows you how they know shag all about Russia and Russians.
Recording of conversation between Berlin and Warsaw on Navalny case published
20:40 09/04/2020 (updated: 05:19 09/05/2020)
MOSCOW, September 4 – RIA Novosti.The state Belarusian media has
published a recording of the negotiations between Berlin and Warsaw on the situation with
Alexei Navalny, intercepted by Minsk .
RIA Novosti is publishing a transcript of this dialogue.
– Hello, good afternoon, Nick. How are we getting on?
– Everything seems to be going according to plan. The materials about Navalny are
ready. They'll be transferred to the Chancellor's office. We'll be waiting for her
statement.
– Has the poisoning been definitely confirmed?
– Look, Mike, it's not that important in this case. There is a war going on. And
during a war, all sorts of methods are good.
– I agree. It is necessary to discourage Putin from sticking his nose into the
affairs of Belarus. The most effective way is to drown him with the problems in Russia, and
there are many of them. Moreover, in the near future they will have elections, voting day in
the Russian regions.
– This is what we are doing. How are you doing in Belarus?
– To be honest, not that well, really. President Lukashenko has turned out to be
a tough nut to crack. They are professional and organized. It is clear that Russia supports
them. The officials and the military are loyal to the president. We are working on it. The
rest [of this conversation] we'll have when we meet and not on the 'phone.
I find it hard to believe this is real. Lukashenko is 'a tough nut to crack'? The
Belarusian government is 'professional and organized'? Well, you never know with the Poles.
But it seems so perfectly to confirm western perfidy that it must be made up. Who would be
stupid enough to say things like that on the phone?
And "Yats is our man!" Victory Noodles crowed to Pie-whacked.
Don't forget also that Jens Stoltenberg was dumb enough to think he could drive a taxi
around Oslo and pick up paying passengers without their recognising him and commenting on his
poor driving skills and knowledge of Oslo streets.
And on hearing off a Latvian (?) politician, who had been observing the "Revolution of
Dignity" and was involved in an investigation into the deaths of the "Heavenly Hundred", that
there were good grounds to believe that those martyrs for Ukrainian freedom had been martyred
by being shot in the back by their fellow countrymen who were of a fascist bent, Lady Ashton
said: "Gosh!""
Now that really was a dumb utterance to make on the phone, considering the
circumstances.
It is also worth underlining that the Russian pilot who decided to make an emergency
landing in Omsk, rather than proceed to Moscow, may have saved Navalny's life, as may the
doctors in Omsk who – despite their professed doubts about poison – administered
atropine, the closest treatment there is to a novichok antidote, early on. The claim, made by
some, that this was a brazen attack, with the Kremlin's fingerprints all over it, designed to
be found out and interpreted as a "two fingers up" to the west, does not stack up.
But the German findings that probably the most influential Russian opposition leader
was poisoned and that the substance used was the same as the one identified in the Skripal
case – a military-grade nerve agent, moreover, that is associated with Russia, even
though it was developed in the Soviet-era and can be found outside Russia – means that
the Kremlin has a case to answer. Yes, everyone is innocent until proven guilty, and the
Kremlin is all denials, but the onus is now squarely on Putin to make his case in the court
of international opinion.
" the doctors in Omsk who – despite their professed doubts about poison –
administered atropine, the closest treatment there is to a novichok antidote, early on."
That a fact, Doctor Dejevsky?
" everyone is innocent until proven guilty, and the Kremlin is all denials, but the onus
is now squarely on Putin to make his case in the court of international opinion"
Burden of proof?
Russia has been accused! Russia is not obliged to prove its innocence, FFS!!!!
Where is the evidence to back up the accusation????
Of course the Omsk hospital doctors had to apply atropine because Navalny's groupies were
squealing that he had been poisoned. They would have squealed again and accused the hospital
of malpractice if the hospital had not used the drug.
Russian doctors have proposed to their German colleagues that they establish a joint
group on the case of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, the president of Russia's
National Medical Chamber, noted paediatrician Leonid Roshal, told reporters on
Saturday.
Will the Germans agree?
I shouldn't imagine so. They and the rest of the West have crossed the Rubicon:
By Dr. Karin Kneissl , who works as an energy analyst and book author. She served as the Austrian minister of foreign affairs
from 2017-2019. In June, she published her book on diplomacy 'Diplomatie Macht Geschichte' in Germany through Olms, and in early
September her book 'Die Mobilitätswende', or 'Mobility in Transition', was released in Vienna by Braumüller. The cacophony of
noise generated in the wake of the attack on the Russian opposition figure is drowning out the reality. As Angela Merkel has always
maintained, the German-Russian gas deal is purely a commercial project.
Nord Stream has always had the ingredients to drive sober-minded Germans emotional. I remember energy conferences in Germany back
in 2006 when already the idea of such a gas pipeline as a direct connection from Russia to Germany provoked deep political rows,
not just in Berlin but across the EU.
Conservatives disliked it for the simple reason that it was a "Schröder thing," the legacy of social democrat Chancellor Gerhard
Schröder, who lost the election of September 2005 to Angela Merkel. Schröder had negotiated the project with his good friend, President
Vladimir Putin, and then chaired the company in charge of implementing it.
Around that time, I was invited to an energy conference in Munich by the conservative think tank, the Hanns Seidel Foundation,
managed by the Bavarian party CSU, the traditional junior partner of the ruling CDU in the government. The bottom-line of the debate
on Nord Stream was negative, with the consensus being that the German-Russian pipeline would lead to the implosion of a European
common foreign policy and damage the EU's energy ambitions.
I attended many other such events across Germany, from parliament to universities, and listened carefully to all the arguments.
The feelings towards Nord Stream were much more benign at meetings held under the auspices of the SPD.
But over the years, the rift between different political parties evaporated, and a consensus emerged which supported enhanced
energy cooperation between Berlin and Moscow. Politicians of all shades defended the first pipeline, Nord Stream 1, after it went
operational in 2011, bringing Russian gas directly to Germany under the Baltic Sea.
They also enthusiastically supported the creation of the second, Nord Stream 2, better known by its acronym NS2. This $11bn (£8.4bn)
1,200km pipeline is almost finished and was due to go online next year.
But now, in the very final stage of construction, everything has been thrown in limbo thanks to the alleged poisoning of Russian
opposition figure Alexey Navalny.
NS2 has always been controversial. Critics, such as the US and Poland, have argued that it makes Germany too reliant on energy
from a politically unreliable partner. President Trump last year signed a law imposing sanctions on any firm that helps Russia's
state-owned gas company, Gazprom, finish it. The White House fears NS2 will tighten Russia's grip over Europe's energy supply and
reduce its own share of the lucrative European market for American liquefied natural gas.
These sanctions have caused delays to the project. A special ship owned by a Swiss company menaced with sanctions had to be replaced.
And prior to that, various legal provisions were brought up by the European Commission that had to be fulfilled by the companies
in retrospect.
Now the case of Navalny, currently being treated at a Berlin clinic after being awoken from a medically induced coma, has thrown
everything up in the air again. It has triggered a political cacophony that threatens relations between Germany, the EU, Russia,
and Washington. And at the center is the pipeline.
Various German sources, among them laboratories of the armed forces, have alleged that Navalny had been poisoned with the nerve
agent Novichok. Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (SPD)
stated in an interview published on Sunday by Bild: " I hope the Russians don't force us to change our stance on Nord Stream
2 – we have high expectations of the Russian government that it will solve this serious crime ." He claimed to have seen "
a lot of evidence " that the Russian state was behind the attack. " The deadly chemical weapon with which Navalny was poisoned
was in the past in the possession of Russian authorities ," he insisted.
He conceded that stopping the almost-completed pipeline would harm German and broader European business interests, pointing out
that the gas pipeline's construction involves "over 100 companies from 12 European countries, and about half of them come from Germany."
Maas also threatened the Kremlin with broader EU sanctions if it did not help clarify what happened "in the coming days." Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded by labeling the accusations "groundless" and Moscow has staunchly denied any involvement
in the affair.
The whole matter is complicated by domestic political considerations in Germany. CDU politician Norbert Röttgen, who heads up
foreign affairs within the ruling party and has demanded that the pipeline should be stopped, is among those conservatives vying
to lead the CDU in the run-up to Chancellor Angela Merkel's retirement next year. Meanwhile, Merkel is still trying to strike a balance
between the country's legal commitments, her well-known mantra that NS2 is a " purely commercial project, " and what is now
a major foreign policy crisis.
The chancellor had always focused on the business dimension. But most large energy projects also have a geopolitical dimension,
and that certainly holds true with Nord Stream.
When I was Austria's foreign minister, I saw first-hand the recurring and very harsh criticism of the project by US politicians
and officials. I remember the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, in a speech at the margins of the UN General Assembly in September
2018 that focused solely on NS2. I replied by pointing out to him that pipelines are not built to annoy others, but because there
is demand. One thing was certain – the US opposition to Nord Stream would not wane and now the Navalny case has given it new impetus.
What we are witnessing is a tremendous politicization of the pipeline with a wide range of people all shouting very loudly.
So here we are, in a very poisoned atmosphere where it might be difficult to revise positions without losing face. The social
democrat Maas, just like the conservative Röttgen and many others, have taken to the media for different reasons. In my observation,
it might have to do with their respective desires to take a strong position in order to also mark their upcoming emancipation from
the political giant Merkel (she is due to step down next year).
Due to her professional and empathetic handling of the pandemic, she is today much more popular than before the crisis. That makes
it difficult for a junior partner, represented by Foreign Minister Maas, and for all those who wish to challenge her inside the party.
What is needed is to get the topic out of the media and out of the to-and-fro of daily petty politics. Noisy statements might
serve some, but not the overall interests involved. And there are many at stake. It is not only about energy security in times of
transition, namely moving away from nuclear, but much wider matters.
As a legal scholar, I deem the loss of trust in contracts. Vertragstreue, as we call it in German – loyalty to the contract –
will be the biggest collateral damage if the pipeline is abandoned for political reasons. This fundamental principle of every civilization
was coined as pacta sunt servanda by the Romans – agreements must be kept. Our legal system is based on this. Who would still conclude
contracts of such volumes with German companies if politics can change the terms of trade overnight?
In June 2014, construction sites on the coasts of the Black sea, both in Russia and Bulgaria, were ready for starting the gas
pipeline South Stream. After pressure from the European Commission, the work never started. The political reason was the dispute
on Ukraine – in particular, the annexation of the Crimea. However, the legal argument was that the tenders for the contracts were
in contradiction with EU regulations on competition. Tens of thousands of work permits, which had been issued from Bulgaria to Serbia
etc., were withdrawn. The economic consequence was the rise of China's influence in the region. South Stream was redirected to Turkey.
So here we are in the midst of a diplomatic standoff. It is a genuine dilemma, but it could also turn into a watershed. Will contracts
be respected or will we move into a further cycle of uncertainty on all levels? Germany is built on contracts, norms (probably much
too many) and not on arbitrariness.
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The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those
of RT.
silvermoon 5 hours ago
All these weeks have passed and Germany has still not shown shared actual evidence of their Navalny tests
with Russia though. That is the same as saying we found the gun with your finger prints on it but never showing it.
Count_Cash
silvermoon 3 hours ago
Correct, Germany has only since 10th September (if confirmed) shared any 'evidence'. That is sufficient intervening
time to concoct any test result and associated materials that they want - another Diesel scandal. Indeed people will ask why when
you had the patient on 22nd of august, it took you so long to send samples to the OPCW, despite almost immediately yelling Poison!
gainwmn silvermoon 5 hours ago
U stupid sheep: Germany did show it to the OPCW, i.e. the organization RF is the member of,
and therefore the latter gets the full access to all the data provided by Germany, as well as any other of 192 members. Kremlin lies
and demands in this regard is more than ridiculous, they completely destroy any shred of trust left to all RF governmental structures
and regime itself.
Teodor Nitu gainwmn 3 hours ago
Riiight!...Those Russians...not only their chemical
weapons are no longer working, but they are no longer capable to choose the proper time to use them, or so the story goes. Think
about it; they 'used' novichok to kill the Skripals and they are still alive and well (supposedly), now they (Russians) 'used' novichok
again to kill Navalny and he is alive and getting better.
Besides, they chose the absolutely wrong time to do it. With Skripals it
was just before the opening of the World Cup in Russia and now, just before the finishing of the North Stream 2 pipeline.
It sounds
that they are sabotaging their own interests, aren't they? Are they (Russians) that stup!d? Some 'smart' posters here seem to believe
it. But lets get real, one has to be able to see beyond the length of his nose, in order to understand what is really going on.
silvermoon Teodor Nitu 2 hours ago
Russia had all their chemical weapons legally destroyed. Along with hundreds of countries. The
US, UK and Israel never did. Navalny the innocent anti Putin. Can't win one way try another.
Pro_RussiaPole gainwmn 2 hours ago
So why is Russia still asking for it? Clearly, something is being withheld. As for
the OPCW, their credibility has been shot for years with all their fake Syrian chem weapon attack reports.
seawolf 6 hours ago
Even if there was not Navalny's story, they could invent another to stop the project.
Abraxas79 seawolf 4 hours ago
Exactly.
I hope Russia is the one that abandons it. Let Germany be the one that decides to cancel it and go along with it. Concentrate on
supplying China and other Asian nations and internal consumption. Forget about Europe. You don't have to turn off the current supply,
just charge more for it when the market allows. Looks like the next German leader according to this article is quite the Russophobe,
which means relations will only get worse.
Pro_RussiaPole Abraxas79 2 hours ago
If this navalny farce does end up cancelling the NS2 project, Russia should stop all gas transit to western Europe through
Poland and Ukraine by spring of next year. Tell those countries that will be cut off that Russia can either sell them LNG, or
that they will have to connect to other sources of gas. Because if certain countries are so against Russian gas, then why are
they not doing anything against Russian gas going through Poland and Ukraine, and why isn't Trump threatening sanctions on
these countries for doing so?
Blue8ball713 RTjackanory 3 hours ago
Its a far longer list
and it have the fingerprints of GB secret services all over it.
Reply Gabriel Delpino seawolf 46 seconds ago It is not in the interest
of Germany to stop de project. Reply
magicmirror 6 hours ago
Europe should have nothing to do with the USA ....... proved time and
time again they cannot be trusted. All they want is markets, resources and consumers. They lie, they cheat, they steal...... (quoting mr Pompeo, I think). A big opportunity to win Europe's independence.
SmellLaRata
5 hours ago
All due respect for Mr. Navalny but since when does an individual fate of one person dictates the fate for millions ?
And c' mon Germany. Your hypocrisy is so utterly laughable. You ignore the Assange and Snowden cases, the slaughter of Kashoggi,
the brutal beating of yellow vests, the brutal actions against the Catalans ... but Navalni. Not even a hint of a proof of government
involvemen. But it fits the agenda, does it? The agenda which is dictated by the deep state agitators who so much flourished under
Obama.
gainwmn SmellLaRata
4 hours ago
Even being not a fan (to say the least) of the US foreign and some of the domestic policy, I have to point out that tried
by U analogy is largely out of balance: first, the issue in Navalny (as well as in Scripals' and others cases acted on with poisons)
case is not so much the assassination attempt on a person's life, as the banned use of chemical weapons, the ban RF's signature has
been under since 1993. And that conclusion (Russia's guilt) has not been made by the UK or Germany or any other country alone, but
the OPCW - the organization not only RF is the member of, but also 191(!) other countries, out of which not a single country (except
RF) rejected that conclusion!; second, the US did not made attempt on either Snowden's or Assange's life, with any kind of weapon,
not already mentioning the weapons banned by the international agreements American government(s) signed. This is a large - I would
say - decisive difference! As far as Kashoggi's case or other cases sited by U, RF did not react with sanctions against the respective
perpetrators either, thus demonstrating the same disregard for the law and order as the US did... therefore making all lies about
innocent RF and evil US, foolish, at the least.
Pro_RussiaPole gainwmn 2 hours ago
The US and its lackeys are killing Assange. They are doing it slowly. And many voices going along with a lie does not make
the lie true. Because these poisoning allegations are lies. The accused were never allowed to see the evidence or challenge
it. And there is the whole issue of politicized reports coming out of the OPCW that contradicted evidence and reality.
Nathi Sibbs 4 hours ago
After completing the pipe and
it start running Russia must turn off all Ukraine pipes. No more gas for free from Russia, Ukraine must start importing LNG from thier reliable partner USA. I think imports from USA will be good for Ukrainian Nazi people
Abraxas79 Nathi Sibbs 4 hours
ago
How are they going to pay for it? Ukraine's only exports these days are its women to various brothels across Europe and North
America.
Hilarous 5 hours ago
The German leaders know very well that the case of Navalny will never be resolved and exists
for no other reason than to seize a pretext to demonize Russia and to end Nord Stream 2 in exchange for US freedom gas
magicmirror
Hilarous 4 hours ago
freedom gas and handsome presents .....
SandythePole 3 hours ago
This is an excellent account by Dr Karin Kneissl. It is a genuine dilemma for 'occupied'
Europe. Its occupying master does NOT want NS2 and will do anything to stop it. Russia suffers sanctions upon sanctions, but still
gallantly tries to maintain friendly and honourable business relations with its implacable neighbours. For how much longer is this
to continue? Surely there must be some limit to the endless provocations of occupied Europe and its Western master. Perhaps it is
time to shut off the oil and gas and leave Germany to sail under its own wind.
dunkie56 3 hours ago
Perhaps Russia should disengage
with Germany/EU totally and forge ahead in partnership with China and India and whoever wants to do business. let the EU tie it's
ship to the sinking US ship and drown along with it's protection racket partner! Then Russia should build a new iron curtain between
itself and all countries who want to align with the EU..in the long run Russia has tried to forge a partnership with the West but
it just has not born any fruit and even as pragmatic as Russia is they must be coming to the conclusion they are flogging a dead
horse!
Blue8ball713 dunkie56 2 hours ago With 146 million citizen Russia is too small to be a real partner to anyone like
China or India. Best fit is the EU, but the EU is controlled or better said occupied by the USA. Its part of their hegemonial system.
So Russia is left out in the rain..
micktaketo 5 hours ago
I am not sure if it is the right thing to do but I think Russia
should sue the German authorities if this deal is withdrawn and if it is have nothing to do with Germany again along with other corrupt
countries that cannot prove or at the least bring forth their evidence to be seen, to be transparent to all even Russia the first,
because Russia is the one being accused. These countries must think we the people are all completely stupid and Russia more so. This
corruption stinks to high heaven and is obvious to all sane people who love fairness. You cannot trust an entity that believes in
getting what they want by hook or by crook. Russia learn your lesson ! So you countries that love whats good for you and your people
do not cheat them for they voted for you to help them. Germany do not kick yourself, it will hurt your people. Saying, There is more
than one way to skin a cat, they say.
Mutlu Ozer 3 hours ago
There is a simple concept to investigate a crime to find the criminals: Just look at whose benefit the crime is? EU
politicians are certainly smart people to know this basic concept of criminal investigation. However, now they are playing a
new strategy about how to domesticate(!) not only Russia China as well... Germans are the main actors in the stage of the WW-I
and WW-II. I surely claim that Germans would be the main architect of the last war, WW-III.
MOSCOW, July 26 – RIA Novosti. The US authorities are increasing pressure on
German and European companies involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2, Die Welt
newspaper writes, citing sources.
The newspaper notes that the American side has held two videoconferences with gas
pipeline contractors from Germany and other European countries to "indicate the far-reaching
consequences of their further participation in the project". The conferences were attended by
representatives of the US Department of State, Treasury and Department of Energy.
Sources told the newspaper that American officials "have made it very clear that they
want to prevent the completion of Nord Stream 2".
I suppose the Germans could crumble like cheese, but I personally think it is very
unlikely, since doing so would mean total dependence on the United States, with its whims and
its 'loyalty tests'. Not necessarily in energy, because Europe would still have to rely
heavily on Russia; the United States would be satisfied – for the moment – with
Russia continuing to supply its present amounts, provided they went through Ukraine as they
do now, so that Russia has to help finance Ukraine's slow development as a US project
dedicated to Russia's undoing. But America knows it cannot ever replace Russian supply,
although it would ideally like to take more and more market share as its own production
(theoretically) continues to increase. It just adamantly does not want Ukraine taken out of
the equation, because Ukraine is like a rheostat that Washington can turn up or down as
necessary.
No, the USA cannot replace Russian gas, but if Germany gives in now, Washington will run
it as a wholly-owned subsidiary for as far as the eye can see. And I believe Germany knows
it.
The German foreign minister was making suitable noises for the USA yesterday, saying that
in order to rejoin G7, Russia must firstly clean up its relations with Banderastan -- read:
stop its "aggression" towards the Ukraine and return the Crimea to its rightful "owner".
The Kremlin responded that it has no intention of rejoining G7.
No mention off the German minister about the Ukraine not complying with the Minsk
agreement, about the Ukraine government waging war against its citizens, its stopping the
water supply to the Crimea etc., etc. just Big Bad Russia the "Aggressor State" that must
learn how to behave itself according "International Law".
So it would appear. But it should not be at all surprising – except maybe to
Washington – that you cannot shit on China day and night and call it all sorts of
unpleasant names, and then expect the sun to come up on happy business partners China and the
USA next day. China shares with Russia an imperative that it be respected; you don't have to
like it, but you must speak respectfully and politely about it, and limit your accusations to
what you can prove.
Washington likes to unload the mockery by the truckload, and then, when it's time to do
business, say "Aw, shucks – I were just funnin'", and have business go forward as if
the insults had never been voiced. Or, worse yet, insist that it is sticking to its
positions, but you must do business with it anyway because it is the world leader and there
is nowhere else to turn.
Natural Gas in the USA is at what is referred to as a 'messy bottom', and both production
and sales are below year-over-year average. Yet it is plain – they say so, in so many
words – that America expects sales growth to come from China and India.
"The International Energy Agency expects LNG, the main driver of international gas
trade, to expand by 21% in 2019-2025, reaching 585 billion cubic meters annually. The growth
will come from China and India, the IEA said in its Gas 2020 report published Wednesday.
Trade will increase at a slower pace than liquefaction capacity additions, limiting the
prospects of a tighter market, it said in the report."
I think he's probably right that the natural gas market will expand by a significant
number. I'm just not sure the USA will play much of a part in it. And China is on solid
ground, no matter how much America screams and roars; Russian gas is cheaper, and the
logistics chain is short and reliable.
Obviously, for this group, 'bridging the gap' in 'threat perception' does NOT mean coaxing
Poland and Lithuania to realize that Nord Stream II is just a commercial venture. It means
coaxing France and Germany to accept and amplify Poland and Lithuania's paranoia and loathing
of Russia. Equally obviously, America's determination to be Europe's Daddy with the LNG is
just a commercial venture. Nothing political about it, and if the USA ever found itself in
the position where it could leverage its energy sales to Europe to make Europe do things it
otherwise would not do willingly, why, it would never use that power. Only the Russians
weaponize energy.
The 'panel' is simply a parade of Atlanticists, a neoconservative wet dream. There are no
realists there. Fortunately, US approval of the project is not required.
According to the
newspaper, officials from US Department of State, the Treasury Department, as well as the Department of Energy
approached European contractors to make sure they fully understand the consequences of staying in the project. Up to a dozen
officials reportedly held at least two online conferences with representatives of the firms in recent days.
Speaking in a
"friendly"
manner, the US side stressed that it wanted to prevent
completion of Nord Stream 2, observers of the online talks said.
"I believe the threat
is very, very serious,"
one of them revealed to the German outlet.
Those threats are
consistent with comments by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last week, in which he warned that companies involved in the
project had better
"get out now"
or risk facing penalties under Section 232 of the
notorious Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
Apart from Russia's energy
major Gazprom, which is developing the project, five European companies have joined. Those are France's Engie, Austria's OMV,
the UK-Dutch company Royal Dutch Shell, as well as Wintershall and Germany's Uniper.
Speaking to Welt am
Sonntag, the latter called US attempts to undermine the
"important infrastructure
project"
a clear intervention into European sovereignty.
Earlier this week, the US
House of Representatives approved an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, meant to expand US sanctions on
companies involved in installing Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. According to one of the sponsors of the bill, the
measures can target companies facilitating or providing vessels, insurance, port facilities, or tethering services for those
vessels, as well as to those providing certification for Nord Stream 2.
Both European businesses
and government officials have repeatedly decried US attempts to meddle in European energy policy by sanctioning Nord Stream 2,
with some even calling on Brussels to work on countermeasures.
Moscow has also lambasted
Washington's move, calling it unfair competition. Earlier this week, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia
will develop a new strategy for completion of the project if Washington proceeds with new punitive measures.
Дания
разрешила
использовать
новые суда для
прокладки
"Северного
потока – 2"
STOCKHOLM, July 6. / TASS /. At the request of Nord Stream 2 AG, the Danish Energy
Agency (DEA) has given permission that vessels with anchor positioning be used on an
unfinished section of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline southeast of Bornholm Island. This was
announced on Monday in a departmental press release.
Ha, ha! I expect the Danes had their wetted finger to the wind, and were reasonably quick
to observe Merkel's kiss-off of the United States when it did the inadvisable, and went ahead
with more sanctions to try to prevent completion of the pipeline. Might be too late to start
construction this summer, though – we're into the cod-spawning season now. Maybe they
could do part of it at the other end, or something.
No, not after the spawning season has stopped -- I think that must have just been a load
of bollocks of an excuse for blocking further work -- but when the time allowed for an appeal
against the Danish govt decision has elapsed:
К достройке
газопровода
приступят
после
истечения
срока
обжалования
обновленного
разрешения
Дании -- 3
августа.
The completion of the gas pipeline will begin after the expiration of the appeal period
for the renewed Denmark permit -- August 3./
"Today the Department of State is updating the public guidance for CAATSA authorities
to include Nord Stream 2 and the second line of TurkStream 2. This action puts investments or
other activities that are related to these Russian energy export pipelines at risk of US
sanctions. It's a clear warning to companies aiding and abetting Russia's malign influence
projects and will not be tolerated. Get out now or risk the consequences".
Pompeo speaking at a press conference today.
CAATSA -- Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act
So Russia and Turkey are "adversaries" of the USA?
In what way?
Do these states wish to wage war against the USA?
Is it adversarial to United States interest to compete economically with the hegemon?
Who cares? Really, is Pompeo still scary? If he has a functioning brain, he should realize
that all these blatant efforts to reserve markets for America by sanctioning all its
competitors out of the picture is having the opposite effect, and frightening customers away
from becoming dependent on American products which might be withheld on a whim when America
wants political concessions. 'Will not be tolerated' – what a pompous ass. Sanction
away. The consequence is well-known to be seizure of assets held in the United States or an
inability to do business in the United States. That will frighten some into submission
– like the UK, which was threatened with the cessation of intelligence-sharing with the
USA (sure you can spare it?) if it did not drop Huawei from its 5G networks. But others will
take prudent steps to limit their exposure to such threats, in the certain knowledge that if
they work, they will encourage the USA to use the technique again.
The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) has announced a deadline after which it will be possible
to begin work on completing the Russian Nord Stream-2 gas export pipeline, RIA Novosti
reported with reference to the regulator's statement.
If you search through the web, you find reports in the Western media about Denmark giving
its approval in 2019. It reneged on that decision. . But nothing on the Danish decision the
other day.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, built to increase the flow of Russian gas into Europe's biggest
economy, was thwarted five months ago after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions
that forced workers to retreat. Now, after a three-month voyage circumnavigating the globe,
the Akademik Cherskiy, the Russian pipe-laying vessel that's a prime candidate to finish the
project, has anchored off the German port where the remaining pipeline sections are waiting
to be installed...
Satellite images captured by Planet Labs inc. on May 10 show that sections of pipeline have
been moved to a jetty equipped with a crane for loading. Ship-tracking data shows that a
dredging vessel operated by a Nord Stream 2 contractor, as well as a Russian
pipe-laying-crane ship are also in the vicinity and that the Akademik Cherskiy had moved as
of Wednesday next to the jetty loaded with pipes.
In order to complete the final 100-mile stretch of Nord Stream 2, Russia effectively needs
to use its own vessels due to U.S. sanctions.
The U.S. still thinks that it can
stop Gazprom from finishing the pipeline, but that's insane.
Tens of billions of dollars, along with Putin's reputation as a savvy geopolitical chess
master, have been invested in the pipeline project. However, Moscow is now running out of
viable options. The only move left is to proceed in defiance of sanctions that will adversely
affect many in the higher echelons of the Russian establishment.
This is checkmate.
Yes, this is checkmate...for Putin.
After investing billions of dollars, Gazprom would go bust if they don't finish this pipeline.
So do you really think that more U.S. sanctions will give them even a moment's pause?
Sanctions are pointless now.
The question here is, why was this pipeline such a big deal?
To give you an idea, consider the recently completed
Turkstream pipeline .
The Turkstream pipeline network isn't even fully integrated yet, and it's already having an
impact.
Who it's impacting is the key.
Although Ukraine has not been importing any Russian gas for its domestic needs since November
2015, it has signed a five-year transit contract with Gazprom for a minimum 65bcm in 2020 and
40bcm/year from 2021.
However, transit volumes have fallen 47% year on year in the first four months of 2020,
amounting to 15.5bcm. The steep drop has been linked to European oversupply and low demand,
but also to the lack of transit to the Balkan region after Russian exports to Turkey,
Bulgaria and Greece were diverted to the new TurkStream pipeline from January 2020.
"Our transmission system can transit 110bcm of gas [annually] but this year we expect only
50-55bcm of transit," Makogon added, pointing out that volumes would drop even lower if
Russia commissions Nord Stream 2 , a 55bcm/year subsea pipeline designed to link Russia
directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea.
Ukraine stands to lose $3 Billion a year in transit fees from Russia once Nord Stream 2 is
completed this year. This will devastate Ukraine's budget and economy.
Before you feel any sympathy for Ukraine, consider the
situation that Ukraine put Russia in.
Ukraine's NATO membership ambitions were written into the Ukrainian Constitution in February
2019 via an amendment that also confirmed the goal of eventually joining the European Union.
NATO integration has remained official Ukrainian policy following the April 2019 election
of President Zelenskyy. In early 2020, the country was said to be on track to secure NATO
Enhanced Opportunity Partner status later in the year if the pace of reforms was
maintained.
NATO's mission continues to be "destroy Russia". So you can see why Russia would feel the
need to, at the very least, not help fund an enemy nation.
Plus the potential
consequences of Ukraine entering NATO are terrible.
There are ongoing concerns that membership would allow Ukraine to immediately invoke Article
5 of the NATO treaty, the stipulation that an armed attack against one member state is an
attack against them all.
Fortunately, the new Ukraine government of President Zelensky doesn't appear nearly so eager
for a military confrontation with Russia. Plus public support for joining NATO is dropping.
If I was to make a prediction, I would say that NATO was about to experience a political
setback.
Handelsblatt newspaper reported, citing the draft decision of the Federal Network Agency of
Germany (BNA), that the BNA intends to reject an application filed by Nord Stream 2 for an
exemption of the pipeline project from the requirements of the updated EU gas directive.
The reason for the rejection of the Nord Stream 2 application was the fact that in order to
exempt the gas pipeline from the updated directive, the pipeline must have been completed
before May 2019. Nord Stream 2 insisted that it was necessary to not proceed from the
"construction" point of this requirement, but to take into account the fact that "billions of
investments had already been made in accordance with the previous legal regime by the time the
new directives of the domestic gas market came into force".
The spokesman for Nord Stream 2, Jens Mueller, said in January that the project meets all
the requirements for its exemption from the rules of the updated EU gas directive in Germany
and
that this also applies to the completion date of the project.
Gazprom ramps up its export capacity to China via the Power of Siberia line, plans to add a
second compressor station this year. Drill rigs at the Kovykta Field are expected to go from
7 this year to 18 next year, and the extraction flows added to the Power of Siberia capacity.
The servants of Washington in the EU will try to extract every last concession they can
before the pipeline is completed, but they absolutely want it and will back down if they
think Russia would actually give up on completing it. Their strategy all along was to let
Russia build it, but ensure its operation fell under the control of EU regulators so that
they could get plenty of gas when they needed it, but use it as a negotiating tool when they
had lots in reserve, start complaining about the price and try to get more pipeline volume
for competitors, variations on the ideal where the Russians would absorb all the costs of
building it, but would yield all advantages of the completed pipeline to the EU. Right up
until the moment the first volumes go through the pipeline, the EU is going to act as a
spoiler on a project they absolutely want to be completed.
If Russia said, all right then, fuck you; Get your gas from the Americans, if that's what
you want, two things would happen – one, The Donald would come in his pants, and two,
Brussels would go wait wait wait wait hold on. No need to be hasty.
But they think they are in a super-strong position now, because their American pals
stopped it when it was just a whisker away from completion, and gave them breathing space to
renegotiate a deal that was already set, and make up a bunch of new rules using that was
then, this is now for a rationale. I hope Russia does the same to them once it's complete,
and says yeah, you THOUGHT that was the price, but that was then, and charges them just
enough under the American price that dropping them in favour of the Americans is not
feasible, but still much more than they thought they would pay.
That's funny; I just checked her position last night, and it said she was bound for Nakhodka,
due early in July.
Yeah; making 10 knots for Nakhodka, due there July 1st. That's where she left from
originally, but so far as I could make out there is nothing in Nakhodka which might lead to
the belief she will be there undergoing updates and tweaks for her employment finishing Nord
Stream II.
It'd be nice to think Russia is going to complete Nord Stream II right away just to spite
Washington and its endless meddling, but as we have discussed before, there really is no
hurry. Russia is locked into a new medium-term transit contract with Ukraine, the Russian
state has reduced income available due to the oil-price mess and low demand owing to the
'pandemic', and would be forging ahead with work that would cost it just as much money to do
now as it would later, when it likely will have more cash available. I've read the AKADEMIK
CHERKSIY needs a short refit and a little updating to ready her for Nord Stream work, since
being principal pipelayer for that line possibly requires some different equipment or at
least some adjustments. It likely would require crewing by some more specialists, as well,
and there's no reason to believe they have been aboard all this time. I suppose they could
meet the ship in Nakhodka, but there is nothing at this point to suggest that.
The only thing that argues for Russia pressing ahead now is the weather, which should be
entering the season when it would be best for that kind of work. Otherwise, nothing suggests
Russia is in a tearing rush to get on with it. Certainly the partners have not been told
anything, and they don't appear to be unduly alarmed at the lack of immediate progress.
Russia's geographical position makes its exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) more
profitable and competitive with American and Australian supplies, according to Russia's Energy
Minister Alexander Novak. Russia ships most of its LNG (around 69 percent) to Asian markets,
where the bulk of global LNG supplies are sent. The country could also export its LNG via
traditional Russian pipeline gas European routes, due to low cost and short transportation
distance, the minister wrote, in an article for the Energy Policy journal.
"Russia's convenient geographical position between Europe and Asia allows our LNG to be
profitable at current prices and to win competition from the US and Australia," Novak said.
"If necessary, we can deliver liquefied gas to any European country, and it will be faster
and cheaper than many other suppliers."
The Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be a key transport link to connect massive Arctic energy
projects Russia is currently developing with target markets. The route, which lies in Arctic
waters and within Russia's Exclusive Economic Zone, could cut the transportation time by a
third, compared to shipments via the Suez Canal.
Russia is one of the world's leading exporters of natural gas. Last year, it produced more
than 40 billion cubic meters of LNG – a nearly 50 percent increase from 27 billion cubic
meters it had in 2018. By 2035, Novak expects the country to boost production to 120 million
tons, amounting to around a fifth of the forecasted global LNG production.
The unexpected alliance between Turkey and Libya is a geopolitical earthquake that changes
the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean and across the Middle East.
Turkey's audacious move has enraged its rivals in the region and cleared the way for a
dramatic escalation in the 9 year-long Libyan civil war. It has also forced leaders in Europe
and Washington to decide how they will counter Turkey's plan to defend the U.N-recognized
Government of National Accord (GNA) , and to extend its maritime borders from Europe to Africa
basically creating "a water corridor through the eastern Mediterranean linking the coasts of
Turkey and Libya."
Leaders in Ankara believe that the agreement "is a major coup in energy geopolitics" that
helps defend Turkey's "sovereign rights against the gatekeepers of the regional status quo."
But Turkey's rivals strongly disagree. They see the deal as a naked power grab that undermines
their ability to transport natural gas from the East Mediterranean to Europe without crossing
Turkish waters. In any event, the Turkey-Libya agreement has set the stage for a broader
conflict that will unavoidably involve Egypt, Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Russia and the
United States. All parties appear to have abandoned diplomatic channels altogether and are,
instead, preparing for war.
On November 27, Turkey and Libya signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that commits
Turkey to providing military assistance to Libya's Government of National Accord (GNA). The MoU
also redraws Turkey's maritime boundaries in a way that dramatically impacts the transport of
gas from the East Mediterranean to Europe. Israel is particularly worried that this new deal
will undermine its plans for a 1,900-kilometer EastMed pipeline connecting the Leviathan gas
field, off the coast of Israel, to the EU. YNET News summarized Israel's concerns in an
ominously titled article: "Turkey's maneuver could block Israel's access to the sea". Here's an
excerpt:
"Two of Israel's wars (1956 Sinai campaign and 1967 Six-Day War) broke out over navigation
rights. Israel must take note of a new reality taking hold in the Mediterranean. It must
regard Turkey's actions as a substantial strategic threat and consider what it may do to
respond to it
This EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zones) designation essentially carved up much of the
energy-rich Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Libya, prompting a wave of international
condemnations first and foremost from Greece, Egypt, and Cyprus, who may be directly or
indirectly affected ..Turkey's disregard for the economic waters of Greece, Cyprus, and
Egypt.
Ankara is in effect annexing those areas pending an appeal to international tribunals,
which can take many years to resolve. In practical terms, Turkey created a sea border the
width of the entire Mediterranean ." ( "Turkey's maneuver could block Israel's access
to the sea" , ynet news )
The analysis from America's premier Foreign Policy magazine was no less foreboding. Check it
out:
"Turkey is meshing together two Mediterranean crises in a desperate bid to reshape the
region in its own favor, with potentially nasty implications both for the ongoing civil war
in Libya and future energy development in the eastern Mediterranean.
This month, Turkey's unusual outreach to the internationally recognized government of
Libya has resulted in a formal agreement for Ankara to provide military support, including
arms and possibly troops, in its bid to hold off an offensive from Russian-backed rebels in
the eastern part of the country. The military agreement came just weeks after Turkey and that
same Government of National Accord reached an unusual agreement to essentially carve up much
of the energy-rich eastern Mediterranean between them -- threatening to cut out Greece and
Cyprus from the coming bonanza ." ("Newly Aggressive Turkey Forges Alliance With Libya",
Foreign Policy )
While these new developments are likely to intensify the fighting on the ground in Libya,
they also portend a deepening of divisions within the region itself where new coalitions are
forming and battle-lines are being drawn. On the one side is the Turkey-Libya Axis, while on
the other is Greece, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, France, Germany, UK and probably the
United States although the Trump administration has not yet clarified its position. In any
event, the war between Libya's internationally-recognized government and Haftar's Libyan
National Army (LNA) is just a small part of a much larger struggle over vital hydrocarbons in a
strategically-located area of the Mediterranean. Here's a clip from an article at War On The
Rocks that helps to underscore the stakes involved:
"The discovery of significant deposits of natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean
beginning in 2009 was a game-changer that upended regional geopolitics. It prompted new and
unexpected alliances between Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt to maximize their chances of
energy self-sufficiency. The bulk of the gas lies in Egypt's Zohr field, the Leviathan and
Tamar fields in Israeli waters, and the Aphrodite near the island of Cyprus. With recoverable
natural gas reserves in the region estimated at upward of 120 trillion cubic feet, the
strategic implications could not be bigge r. This is about the same amount as the proven gas
in the whole of Iraq, the 12th largest reserve globally .(Israel's gas field) Leviathan is
estimated to hold 22 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and a potential half a
million barrels of oil." ("Hydrocarbon Diplomacy: Turkey's Gambit Might Yet Pay a Peace
Dividend", warontherocks.com)
Turkey's ambitious gambit makes it more likely that its rivals will increase their support
for the Libyan warlord, Haftar, who is, by-most-accounts, a CIA asset that was sent to Libya
in 2014 to topple the government in Tripoli and unify the country under a US puppet. Haftar's
forces currently control more than 70% of the Libyan territory while almost 60% of the
population is under the control of the GNA led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. According
to Turkish news: "More than half of Haftar's troops are mercenaries from Russia and Sudan,
who are mainly paid by the Gulf states."
In April, 2019, Haftar launched an offensive on the government in Tripoli but was easily
repelled. In recent days, however, Haftar has resumed his attacks on the city of Misrata and on
the Tripoli airport in clear violation of the Berlin ceasefire agreement. He has also received
shipments of weapons from the UAE despite an arms embargo that was unanimously approved two
weeks ago at the same Berlin Conference. We expect that support for Haftar will continue to
grow in the months ahead as Berlin, Paris and particularly Washington settle on a plan for
reinforcing proxies to prosecute the ground war and for blunting Turkey's power projection in
the Mediterranean.
The Turkey-Libya agreement is a clumsy attempt to impose Turkey's preferred maritime
boundaries on the other countries bordering the Mediterranean. Naturally, Washington will not
allow this unilateral assertion of power to go unchallenged.
And while Washington's strategy has not yet been announced, that merely indicates that the
foreign policy establishment was caught off-guard by Turkey's November 27 announcement . It
does not mean that Washington will accept the status quo. To the contrary, US war-planners are
undoubtedly putting the finishing touches on a new strategy aimed at achieving their objectives
in Libya while at the same time dealing a stinging blow to a NATO ally that has grown closer to
Russia, caused endless headaches in Syria, and is now disrupting Washington's plans for
controlling vital resources in the East Mediterranean.
Washington sees Turkey's assertive foreign policy as a sign of "defiance" which requires a
iron-fisted response. But any attack on Turkey or Turkish interests will only intensify the bad
blood between Ankara and Washington, it will only put more pressure on the threadbare NATO
alliance, and it will only push Turkish president Erdogan further into Moscow's corner. Indeed,
the Trump team should realize that an overreaction on their part could trigger a fateful
realignment that could reshape the region while hastening the emergence of a new order.
At the Davos forum an at least 2-year long shutdown of Nord Stream-2 has been
announced
Liliya Karayeva, January 24, 2020
The launch of the Russian gas pipeline "Nord Stream-2", which is needed to supply
Europe with gas that bypasses the Ukraine, will take place not earlier than after 2 years. It
is not ruled out that the project will cease to exist if Western sanctions continue.
Former US ambassador to the Ukraine John Herbst said this at the World Economic Forum
in Davos. He noted that there is no possibility of Russia completing the gas
pipeline.
For the construction, it is necessary to have a company that will ensure the laying of
pipes on the sea bed. However, US sanctions do not allow foreign firms to do this, Eadaily
reports.
Herbst stressed that the Russians "can beat themselves on the chest," but under current
conditions the project may not be completed.
Earlier the pipe-layers of the Swiss company Allseas left the Baltic Sea because of US
sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia can complete the gas pipeline,
but it will take more time.
Cue you know who.
That former US ambassador to Banderastan certainly knows a lot about the technological
incapabilities of the gas station with missiles, doesn't he?
Amazing; at the time sanctions were applied, the Russian Energy Minister claimed that the
Russian Federation had the ships and the capability to complete the pipeline in only two
months. Therefore it would have opened only a month late.
In fact, a joint statement just after the sanctions were announced to great fanfare said
that the remainder of the pipeline could be completed using divers, although it would be
slow. But Russia is known to have pipe-laying vessels in its inventory which would surely
require little modification to finish the remaining work. Russia simply does not seem to be
in any hurry to complete the project.
I personally think Russia is just approaching completion of the pipeline in a leisurely
fashion, now that there is a new gas-transit agreement with Ukraine and there is no
particular rush to get it done. Russia is committed to transit 60 BCm through Ukraine this
year, so what's the hurry to get a pipeline done which bypasses Ukraine? According to the
Energy Minister – who must be speaking under advisement from field professionals
– Russia could finish it in about 2 months. It would not be in Ukraine's interests to
provoke a transit crisis now, the winter is over and demand will slacken, and there just is
no compelling reason to hurry. But if there were, it would not take long to finish.
The current cocky attitude which assumes the project has been stopped cold with a wave of
Washington's mighty hand and now may never be completed is, however, pure and classic Ukie
nationalist. The Ukrainians seem fated to slobber lovingly all over America whenever it makes
a gesture, and start up again with the tough talk toward Russia. Nord Stream II is dead in
the water, and now it might never be completed – Russia might have to transit gas
through Ukraine until the infants of today are grandparents! It is so much more pleasant to
put your faith in something which sounds like you are going to have an easy life without
doing much of anything; just loll in bed all day on cushions of goose-down, and let the
Russians pay to use your pipes to transit their gas – so easy! It's a wonder there are
any realists left. Keep in mind that those are the same people who will scream that they were
betrayed when the pipeline is completed, and that the dirty Russians took advantage of
Ukraine's frank and open nature.
This US sanctions business often confuses me. I work at ExxonMobil twice a week -- right next
to the Exceptional Nation's embassy are the Exxon offices situated -- and they tell me there
that the project they were undertaking in the Barents Sea, I think, was stopped and is now on
hold because of sanctions, whereas the Exxon activity in Sakhalin is still in operation. The
reason why? Sakhalin is on dry land, the Russian woman whom I teach there told me. "So?" I
asked. She reckons it's because at Sakhalin they use Russian gear and technology, whereas the
offshore Barents Sea rig is US operated.
For Russia, at least, it will serve as an object lesson to not ever again be reliant on US
technology for anything, and be to the least extent possible reliant on technology of its
close allies. That would likely mean Asian drilling technology. Despite what American media
would have you believe, Americans are not the only people on earth capable of developing and
using extraction technology. Russia is also perfectly capable of engineering its own
production methods and equipment. Sanctions are only effective, to the limited degree they
are effective at all, where you as the sanctioner can get all available sources to deny their
use. Arm-twisting to go along with the American sanctions has cost European business
billions, but the important thing to remember about employment of sanctions and successful
work-arounds is that business will not bounce back to its previous arrangements once
sanctions are lifted unless their duration is very short. The sanctions against Russia, quite
apart from the Americans having supplied their own justification for employing them in the
first place (so that the Russians as a whole have a sense of having been unjustly punished,
which taints the American brand), have had the effect of forcing Russia to seek other
suppliers and to develop domestic industry. It has survived the sanctions regime quite well,
and is much stronger for it. It also serves as a reminder to other countries which are not
ideologically aligned with the United States that a dependence on American products could
constitute an unacceptable vulnerability for them as well.
China is the biggest producer in Asia, with an output of nearly 4 million barrels per day.
Although its production has been stagnant or even declining in recent years, that is about to
change; the national government announced last year a 20% increase in capital investment in
production, with the goal of increasing its output by 50% to 6 million BPD by 2025. I think
it would be safe to bet that none of that technology will be American or owned by its closest
allies, since a key platform of the increased expenditure is energy independence.
Looks like two former ministers in the previous Medvedev government got bumped upstairs:
Vladimir Medinsky (Culture Minister) and Maxim Oreshkin (Economic Development Minister) have
become Presidential aides. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news
Alexander Novak is back in as Minister of Energy so he must have been telling the truth
back in December about Russia being able to finish the Nordstream II pipeline construction in
two months. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62625
Either that or his lies are so reliable that the Kremlin knows immediately to believe the
opposite of what he says. But that's not likely, because an Energy Minister who started a
massive project like that and had no prospects at all of completing it would not likely be
reappointed.
Another potential reason for Russian relaxation toward pipeline completion might well be
the global collapse of LNG prices due to overproduction: according to the new (ish) CEO of
Gunvor Group (remember them? The energy company that Putin owned 75% of its shares?), US LNG
exporters are 50 cents away from shutdowns.
"LNG prices are on track to hit an all-time low in Asia later this summer. Gas is also
at its weakest seasonally in the U.S. and Europe since the late 1990s. "There's a surplus
already in the U.S. and Europe. And the mild winter in Asia means another surplus is building
up there," Marco Dunand, chief executive officer of trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.,
told Bloomberg. Torbjorn Tornqvist, chief executive officer of Gunvor Group Ltd., said U.S.
LNG exporters are 50 cents away from shutdowns."
Under such conditions, it's unlikely the Kremlin is overly concerned at the thought of
American LNG carriers steaming into European ports and snatching the energy rug from
underneath them. Think what a great time this would be to have an energy-extraction empire in
which – thanks to western sanctions – your production costs were in rubles and
your selling price was in Euros. Why, you'd still be able to take a profit no matter how low
prices went!
After having forbidden the Chinese company Huawei to compete in the calls for tender for the
5G network, the United States are now forbidding the Europeans to increase their supplies of
Russian gas. While the first decision was aimed at maintaining the coherence of NATO, the
second is not a result of Russophobia, but of the 1992 " Wolfowitz doctrine " - preventing the
EU from becoming a competitor of the " American Empire ". In both cases, the point is to
infantilise the EU and keep it in a situation of dependence.
Although they were locked in a convoluted struggle concerning the impeachment of President
Trump, Republicans and Democrats in the Senate laid down their arms in order to vote, in
quasi-unanimity, for the imposition of heavy sanctions on the companies participating in the
construction of North Stream 2, the doubling of the gas pipeline which delivers Russian gas to
Germany across the Baltic Sea. The main victims were the European companies which had helped
finance the 11 billion dollar project with the Russian company Gazprom. The project is now 80 %
finished. The Austrian company Omy, British/Dutch Royal Dutch Shell, French Engie, German
companies Uniper and Wintershall, Italian Saipem and Swiss Allseas are also taking part in the
laying of the pipeline.
The doubling of North Stream increases Europe's dependence on Russian gas, warn the United
States. Above all, they are preoccupied by the fact that the gas pipeline – by crossing
the Baltic in waters belonging to Russia, Finland, Sweden and Germany – thus avoids the
Visegrad countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary), the Baltic States and
Ukraine. In other words, the European countries which have the closest ties to Washington
through NATO (to which we must add Italy).
Rather than being economic, the goal for the USA is strategic. This is confirmed by the fact
that the sanctions on North Stream 2 are included in the National Defense Authorization
Act , the legislative act which, for fiscal year 2020, hands the Pentagon the colossal sum
of 738 billion dollars for new wars and new weapons (including space weapons), to which must be
added other posts which bring the US military expenditure to approximately 1,000 billion
dollars. The economic sanctions on North Stream 2 are part of a politico-military escalation
against Russia.
An ulterior confirmation can be found in the fact that the US Congress has established
sanctions not only against North Stream 2, but also against the Turk-Stream, which, in its
final phase of realisation, will bring Russian gas across the Black Sea to Eastern Thrace,the
small European area of Turkey. From there, by another pipeline, Russian gas should be delivered
to Bulgaria, Serbia and other European countries. This is the Russian riposte to the US action
which managed to block the South Stream pipeline in 2014. South Stream was intended to link
Russia to Italy across the Black Sea and by land to Tarvisio (Udine). Italy would therefore
have become a switch platform for gas in the EU, with notable economic advantages. The Obama
administration was able to scuttle the project, with the collaboration of the European
Union.
The company Saipem (Italian Eni Group), once again affected by the US sanctions against
North Stream 2, was severely hit by the blockage of South Stream – in 2014, it lost
contracts to the value of 2.4 billion Euros, to which other contracts would have been added if
the project had continued. But at the time, no-one in Italy or in the EU protested against the
burial of the project which was being organised by the USA. Now German interests are in play,
and critical voices are being raised in Germany and in the EU against US sanctions against
North Stream 2.
Nothing is being said about the fact that the European Union has agreed to import liquified
natural gas (LNG) from the USA, an extract from bituminous shale by the destructive technique
of hydraulic fracturation (fracking). In order to damage Russia, Washington is attempting to
reduce its gas exports to the EU, obliging European consumers to foot the bill. Since President
Donald Trump and the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, signed in
Washington in July 2018 the Joint Statement of 25 July: European Union imports of U.S.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) , the EU has doubled its importation of LNG from the USA,
co-financing the infrastructures via an initial expenditure of 656 million Euros. However, this
did not save European companies from US sanctions. Manlio Dinucci
I can't say that I've dug into that in detail, although I do recall reading the post.
What I would like to say, however, is that the Cyprus question is one of the pivotal
pieces in the current geopolitical situation.
A few points warranting further investigation to try and tie into a coherent whole:
1) The Cyprus banking crisis c. 2012-2013. This includes Russian oligarch/mafia money, and
whether it was squirreled out of there before the buy-in orchestrated collapse of Laiki
Bank of Cyprus as well as who was behind this push (IMF/NATO/GER/etc)
2) The Turkstream (1 & 2) gas projects (from which Turkey will extract considerable
transit fees for decades to come). This also supports one of the main pillars of the Russian
Federations' economy. Links also to US hegemon trying to kill off Nordstream 2.
3) The plans/MOU for Israel, Cyprus and Greece to build an undersea gas pipe network. This
will effectively by-pass Turkstream, and is probably behind the push to have Israeli claims
over the Golan Heights crystallise (along with the US staying put in Syria and Iraq). I also
recall reading about ISIS shipments of stolen Syrian oil taking a cross-country route through
Turkey to end up being refined in Israel, and on-sold to Greece (and others). This points at
another whole behind-the-scenes dynamic.
4) Recent attempts by Turkey to get involved in Libya, create a new exclusive maritime
zone, develop gas of the coast of Cyprus, and now military involvement. This is drawing
rebuke from Israel, as it will scupper their planned pipe network. Greece likewise is now
trying to send in troops (as observers/peace-keepers, LOL).
Cyprus is also
rallying around to try and stop the Turkish plan from going ahead.
5) Recent
arrests of Israeli intel assets in Cyprus of late also adds further heat to the
situation.
I would really need to dedicate months of my life to try and untangle all of this, and by
the time I did the situation would have moved on. (reminds me of the quote from Wagelaborers'
blog: "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're
studying that reality – judiciously, as you will – we'll act again, creating
other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're
history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
Karl Rove)
@Shitposter
him some fighter planes for free and he will build an airbase of the Belarus army.
6. Belarus makes gasoline and other products from Russian oils and resells them at a huge
profit. Besides, he wants to export it all via Baltic statelets, providing their ports
business that Putin is taking away from them by building Russian deep-sea ports, like
Ust-Luga.
7. Not to mention that he talks about 10 times more than is wise, saying mostly BS (the
latter is natural for a moron).
There are many more, but these are enough to explain how most Russians feel about him.
Belarus either gets rid of that idiot, or suffers because of his stupidity.
About this whole Ukraine-Russia gas transit thing that Felix is panicking about. It seems
Germany had a key role in facilitating
the deal.
However, that risk receded this week after Moscow and Kyiv concluded a landmark agreement
that will ensure Russian gas continues to transit through Ukraine even after Nord Stream 2 is
completed. Germany played a critical role in brokering the agreement and pressuring Russia
to maintain Ukraine's transit status.
Why would Germany spend all this time and resources to construct these pipelines and then
suddenly pressure Russia to maintain the transit fees? That makes zero sense unless you believe
that Germany was acting as a proxy on behalf of a greater power. My pet theory: Germany most
likely caved to US pressure and tried to triangulate at the last minute in a bid to stave off a
larger German-US conflict.
What Germany wants, it seems to me, is (1) cheap energy for German industry, (2) a
maximally weak Russian hand visavi Ukraine (which is now in effect a NATO/EU dependency), and
(3) good enough relations with the Kremlin for Russia not to go rogue. Goals (1) and (3)
obviously sit uneasily with goal (2), which is why we see so much back and forth.
I agree with (1) and (3) but I'd disagree over (2). I am not convinced Germany cares much
about Ukraine's well-being. It is a very small economy (barely over 100 billion USD) and
Germany's trade exposure to Ukraine is minimal. It isn't part of NATO, EU or any other major
Western framework.
If Ukraine collapsed it would create significant refugee streams but Ukrainians are very
easily assimilated into Western European countries, unlike Syrians or Turks, so even in a
worse-case scenario the fallout would not be a major problem. If Croats or Serbs can mix into
Germany easily, I don't see why Ukrainians would be a problem. Germany's shrinking work force
would in fact even need such an influx. The only kink would be Russia's expanding borders if
both Belarus+Ukraine was swallowed up but Germany probably would calculate that Russia wouldn't
attack a NATO ally (and they wouldn't be wrong). I'm not saying Germany would want such an
outcome, only that the worst-case scenario wouldn't be a big problem for them.
I think this has the fingerprints of the US all over it. Trump personally hates Ukraine,
which has been documented in leaked documents during the impeachment process and major
personalities of the Trumpist movement like Tucker Carlson openly cheers for Russia. So it
wasn't Trump or his people who pushed for this but rather the permanent national-security state
that was behind it and they are obsessed with keeping Russia down, or inventing fake
Russiagate hoaxes to justify their paranoia. Germany made a 180 and suddenly pressured Russia
to do something which Germany itself had no interest in keeping for the longest time. That
suggests Germany caved to US pressure and tried to do a compromise. The US interest would be
for NS2 to be scrapped completely. This was a German attempt at triangulating.
Either way, Ukraine got a big win purely because of Great Power politics over which they had
no direct control.
Thanks for your reply! Some years ago prior to Russia's Syrian intervention, I examined
where genuine Turkish national interests lay and concluded they weren't in the EU given the
numerous repulses when attempting membership but rather they lay to the North and East in
rekindling relations with longtime rivals Russia and Iran. Putin noted this rekindling's been
ongoing for awhile:
"I would like to note that Russia has been exporting gas to Turkey for 30 years, even
though not everyone knows about it. It was initially shipped through the Trans-Balkan gas
pipeline, then through the direct, transit-free Blue Stream pipeline. Last year alone, 24
billion cubic metres of fuel was delivered to our Turkish partners."
Turkey discovered how dependent its economy had become on Russia during the trade embargo
that ensued upon the shootdown of the Mig, which IMO is the main reason a spiteful Erdogan
released the torrent of refugees into the EU as he finally realized Turkey's been used for
decades by the West with no real tangible benefits to show. And yes, IMO he was returning to
sender Terrorists to Libya, and it was no small number as it was several thousand.
IMO, Qatar and Turkey have Seen the Light when it comes to sponsoring terrorist affiliated
organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood; That all they've done is contribute to the Evil
Outlaw US Empire's plan for continuous destabilization of the Persian Gulf region as part of
its strategy to interdict Eurasian Integration, the latter of which is in both Qatar's and
Turkey's genuine national interest.
Nordstream II cost $12 billion. Russia is selling 55 billion M3 of LNG to Europe. Add
Nordstream I, another 55 billion, Power of Siberia to China and Turkstream just opened.
And for $5 trillion spent bombing unoffending MENA countries the US has gotten what? Moar
war. That's it.
Russia is building infrastructure while the US destroys.
After having forbidden the Chinese company Huawei to compete in the calls for tender for the
5G network, the United States are now forbidding the Europeans to increase their supplies of
Russian gas. While the first decision was aimed at maintaining the coherence of NATO, the
second is not a result of Russophobia, but of the 1992 " Wolfowitz doctrine " - preventing the
EU from becoming a competitor of the " American Empire ". In both cases, the point is to
infantilise the EU and keep it in a situation of dependence. Voltaire Network | Rome (Italy) |
30 December 2019 français italiano
Español PortuguêsTürkçe română Deutsch
norsk
German chancellorAngela Merkel and her Minister of the Economy, Olaf Scholz, immediately
denounced US interference.
Although they were locked in a convoluted struggle concerning the impeachment of President
Trump, Republicans and Democrats in the Senate laid down their arms in order to vote, in
quasi-unanimity, for the imposition of heavy sanctions on the companies participating in the
construction of North Stream 2, the doubling of the gas pipeline which delivers Russian gas to
Germany across the Baltic Sea. The main victims were the European companies which had helped
finance the 11 billion dollar project with the Russian company Gazprom. The project is now 80 %
finished. The Austrian company Omy, British/Dutch Royal Dutch Shell, French Engie, German
companies Uniper and Wintershall, Italian Saipem and Swiss Allseas are also taking part in the
laying of the pipeline.
The doubling of North Stream increases Europe's dependence on Russian gas, warn the United
States. Above all, they are preoccupied by the fact that the gas pipeline – by crossing
the Baltic in waters belonging to Russia, Finland, Sweden and Germany – thus avoids the
Visegrad countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary), the Baltic States and
Ukraine. In other words, the European countries which have the closest ties to Washington
through NATO (to which we must add Italy).
Rather than being economic, the goal for the USA is strategic. This is confirmed by the fact
that the sanctions on North Stream 2 are included in the National Defense Authorization
Act , the legislative act which, for fiscal year 2020, hands the Pentagon the colossal sum
of 738 billion dollars for new wars and new weapons (including space weapons), to which must be
added other posts which bring the US military expenditure to approximately 1,000 billion
dollars. The economic sanctions on North Stream 2 are part of a politico-military escalation
against Russia.
An ulterior confirmation can be found in the fact that the US Congress has established
sanctions not only against North Stream 2, but also against the Turk-Stream, which, in its
final phase of realisation, will bring Russian gas across the Black Sea to Eastern Thrace,the
small European area of Turkey. From there, by another pipeline, Russian gas should be delivered
to Bulgaria, Serbia and other European countries. This is the Russian riposte to the US action
which managed to block the South Stream pipeline in 2014. South Stream was intended to link
Russia to Italy across the Black Sea and by land to Tarvisio (Udine). Italy would therefore
have become a switch platform for gas in the EU, with notable economic advantages. The Obama
administration was able to scuttle the project, with the collaboration of the European
Union.
The company Saipem (Italian Eni Group), once again affected by the US sanctions against
North Stream 2, was severely hit by the blockage of South Stream – in 2014, it lost
contracts to the value of 2.4 billion Euros, to which other contracts would have been added if
the project had continued. But at the time, no-one in Italy or in the EU protested against the
burial of the project which was being organised by the USA. Now German interests are in play,
and critical voices are being raised in Germany and in the EU against US sanctions against
North Stream 2.
Nothing is being said about the fact that the European Union has agreed to import liquified
natural gas (LNG) from the USA, an extract from bituminous shale by the destructive technique
of hydraulic fracturation (fracking). In order to damage Russia, Washington is attempting to
reduce its gas exports to the EU, obliging European consumers to foot the bill. Since President
Donald Trump and the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, signed in
Washington in July 2018 the Joint Statement of 25 July: European Union imports of U.S.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) , the EU has doubled its importation of LNG from the USA,
co-financing the infrastructures via an initial expenditure of 656 million Euros. However, this
did not save European companies from US sanctions. Manlio Dinucci
@Situational
Lefty
...The world is not dependent on Iranian oil. But it is dependent on Gulf oil and gas. A few
missiles fired into a Q-Max
will cause a real problem - mainly in Europe. Without a steady supply of gas and oil from the
Saudis and Emirates it will very quickly get cold and dark in Europe this winter and they'll
soon regret allowing Uncle Sammmy to put a kink in Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream.
Speaking of TurkStream, Putin will be going to Turkey to attend the official
launching with Erdogan right after his pleasant visit with Assad . I wonder
what in the world Putin and Erdogan are going to do with those extra 31.5 billion cubic
meters of natural gas?
Russia and China are relatively isolated. American actions in the last 2 decades have
caused the two to elope and their love affair is going strong. Putin and Xi have already had
30 intimate dates discussing just this very scenario.
Of course, the extra transport costs to ship America's shoes, underwear and pots to piss
in is going to be a bitch for the now burgeoning poor class.
Today Tass (or Tacc) gave a big update on Nord Stream-2.
Number one, Academic Cherskiy will remain in the Far East, because it is essential in
completion of far more important projects than Nord Stream. Pipes from Sakhalin (and through
Amur river? I am not sure on that) together have to deliver 80 [huge units] per year, and
they will be laid by Tschersky (Nord Stream 2 has capacity 55 HU)
Number two. Danes softened their requirements. Concerning the specs for a pipe laying
vessel, they can be satisfied by Fortuna that is finishing some bits in the German sector.
Danes added requirement that the sea has to be sufficiently calm during the work, seems like
weather when swimming is forbidden on Baltic beaches, but on summer usually it is permitted.
So Fortuna will finish the job on the Baltic.
A bit weird how Danes oscillate between obstructing and just harrassing. Both USA and
Germany seem to have influence.
So new progressive Danish government issued the permission in November, after full three
months. And now they still make a gesture as if the wanted to inflict huge extra cost. That
said, they were perhaps a bit slow in correcting disinformation.
After having forbidden the Chinese company Huawei to compete in the calls for tender for the
5G network, the United States are now forbidding the Europeans to increase their supplies of
Russian gas.
While the first decision was aimed at maintaining the coherence of NATO, the second is not a
result of Russophobia, but of the 1992 " Wolfowitz doctrine " - preventing the EU from becoming
a competitor of the " American Empire ". In both cases, the point is to infantilise the EU and
keep it in a situation of dependence.
lthough they were locked in a convoluted struggle concerning the impeachment of President
Trump, Republicans and Democrats in the Senate laid down their arms in order to vote, in
quasi-unanimity, for the imposition of heavy sanctions on the companies participating in the
construction of North Stream 2, the doubling of the gas pipeline which delivers Russian gas to
Germany across the Baltic Sea. The main victims were the European companies which had helped
finance the 11 billion dollar project with the Russian company Gazprom. The project is now 80 %
finished. The Austrian company Omy, British/Dutch Royal Dutch Shell, French Engie, German
companies Uniper and Wintershall, Italian Saipem and Swiss Allseas are also taking part in the
laying of the pipeline.
The doubling of North Stream increases Europe's dependence on Russian gas, warn the United
States. Above all, they are preoccupied by the fact that the gas pipeline – by crossing
the Baltic in waters belonging to Russia, Finland, Sweden and Germany – thus avoids the
Visegrad countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary), the Baltic States and
Ukraine. In other words, the European countries which have the closest ties to Washington
through NATO (to which we must add Italy).
Rather than being economic, the goal for the USA is strategic. This is confirmed by the fact
that the sanctions on North Stream 2 are included in the National Defense Authorization
Act , the legislative act which, for fiscal year 2020, hands the Pentagon the colossal sum
of 738 billion dollars for new wars and new weapons (including space weapons), to which must be
added other posts which bring the US military expenditure to approximately 1,000 billion
dollars. The economic sanctions on North Stream 2 are part of a politico-military escalation
against Russia.
An ulterior confirmation can be found in the fact that the US Congress has established
sanctions not only against North Stream 2, but also against the Turk-Stream, which, in its
final phase of realisation, will bring Russian gas across the Black Sea to Eastern Thrace,the
small European area of Turkey. From there, by another pipeline, Russian gas should be delivered
to Bulgaria, Serbia and other European countries. This is the Russian riposte to the US action
which managed to block the South Stream pipeline in 2014. South Stream was intended to link
Russia to Italy across the Black Sea and by land to Tarvisio (Udine). Italy would therefore
have become a switch platform for gas in the EU, with notable economic advantages. The Obama
administration was able to scuttle the project, with the collaboration of the European
Union.
The company Saipem (Italian Eni Group), once again affected by the US sanctions against
North Stream 2, was severely hit by the blockage of South Stream – in 2014, it lost
contracts to the value of 2.4 billion Euros, to which other contracts would have been added if
the project had continued. But at the time, no-one in Italy or in the EU protested against the
burial of the project which was being organised by the USA. Now German interests are in play,
and critical voices are being raised in Germany and in the EU against US sanctions against
North Stream 2.
Nothing is being said about the fact that the European Union has agreed to import liquified
natural gas (LNG) from the USA, an extract from bituminous shale by the destructive technique
of hydraulic fracturation (fracking). In order to damage Russia, Washington is attempting to
reduce its gas exports to the EU, obliging European consumers to foot the bill. Since President
Donald Trump and the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, signed in
Washington in July 2018 the Joint Statement of 25 July: European Union imports of U.S.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) , the EU has doubled its importation of LNG from the USA,
co-financing the infrastructures via an initial expenditure of 656 million Euros. However, this
did not save European companies from US sanctions. Manlio Dinucci
Nothing untrue in this article. Secondary sanctions are evil because they prevent minor
transactions because banks don't think it is worth the severe penalties. So Iranian cancer
patients aren't allowed to buy chemotherapy medications. Trump has gone overboard because he
has learned that there is no political cost to doling these out.
I think this is how US dominance will end. No challengers will end it, although some may
rise in the vacuum. The internal changes the US needs to make to come back are politically
impossible. Sanctions are big government on steroids, and having the US Government sitting
atop the global economy will cause it to seize up. The question is how long commerce will be
able to continue under these conditions.
With the USA help Ukraine got three billions from Russia. But that might mean that if Ukraine
does not switch sides the Ukrainian transit will became minuscule and unable to help Ukraine to
survive financially. Then what ?
The introduction of us sanctions against Nord stream 2, immediately signed by President
trump, created a new situation in Europe at the request of the Congress.
The Stockholm verdict
Gazprom retreated from its positions and agreed to an agreement with Naftogaz on transit,
including the payment of 2.9 billion dollars to Kiev according to the verdict of the Stockholm
arbitration, this is a difficult compromise for Moscow and a consequence of American sanctions
that actually suspended the construction of the SP-2 for at least six months.
I can't help remembering how President Yanukovych received three billion dollars of credit
from Moscow, and now President Zelensky also received almost three billion, although on other
grounds, according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration.
But Moscow gave money, and immediately, although it could stretch these payments with gas
supplies, which Naftogaz agreed to. Moscow seems to be banking on Zelensky in his projected
clash with the nationalists behind Poroshenko. As a lesser evil.
Big European game
The Stockholm billions and Ukrainian transit are also a big European policy. For the first
time, us sanctions hit Germany and Europe as a whole: all energy and construction companies
related to the SP-2. Germany's energy supply was under threat.
In this situation, Russia is making compromises and concessions on Ukrainian transit, and
Ukraine is also making compromises on its part, apparently under pressure from Germany and the
European Union. As a result, Russia and Germany with their friends and the SP-2 are
situationally in the same boat against US sanctions. This is an important episode in the
unfolding Great European game for gas and its delivery routes.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov makes a sharp statement: "Russia will definitely respond to
the sanctions against the SP-2." So as not to"shoot yourself in the foot." Almost
simultaneously, the US intelligence agencies are giving Moscow information about the upcoming
terrorist attacks in St. Petersburg -- an incredible fact, given the current relations between
Washington and Moscow, unless President trump wants to soften Moscow's reaction to the
sanctions against SP-2, hinting that he was forced to sign them.
By the sum of circumstances
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak called the payment of $ 2.9 billion to Kiev "a
difficult decision, a choice between bad and very bad." What is the difference between "
bad " and "very bad"?
Here are the congressional sanctions that really slowed down the construction of the SP-2,
and the judicial burden in the international courts under the influence of the United States,
and the situation in Ukraine. And soon there will be a trial in London on a
three-billion-dollar loan from Russia to Ukraine during the time of President Yanukovych --
this seems to be another reason why we had to pay for the Stockholm gas verdict.
If Russia refused to pay the debt awarded in Stockholm, the London court could on this
basis refuse to consider the claim of Russia. And so, too, Moscow paid 2.9 billion dollars to
Kiev immediately in money. Of course, the London court may follow the Stockholm path, but then
the West and its financial system will lose their reputation in the non-Western world, and
Russia may declare the West a non-legal community.
Victory as treason (Peremoga as zrada)
In General the Ukrainian "Naftogaz" behaves very recklessly and boldly with "Gazprom",
flooding it with lawsuits. His" victory " is undoubtedly Pyrrhic, since Gazprom, as an energy
supplier, will be able to recoup its Stockholm losses.
"Naftogaz" as if Ukrainian, because it is really run by American managers, for them
"Naftogaz – - only a tool to counter Russia, and what will happen then, it does not
matter. What could it be? There may not be a discount of 25 percent, which was in the rejected
package of "Gazprom". New agreements – new discounts.
On the other hand, Gazprom's concessions are due to the entire sum of the political and
economic circumstances of the great European game: Moscow is still trying to create a
Moscow-Berlin axis against us sanctions pressure.
In Q2 2019, thanks to the LNG supply glut and converging prices, the EU's LNG imports jumped
by 102 percent on the year, with Russia accounting for 19 percent of LNG imports, second only
to Qatar with 30 percent, and ahead of the U.S. with 12 percent, the European Commission's
Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets
shows .
Between January and November, LNG imports into Europe including Turkey hit a record high,
beating the previous record from 2011, the EIA said in its latest natural gas update. The U.S.,
Russia, and Qatar boosted their LNG supplies to Europe this year, and the U.S. beat Russia in
volumes supplied to Europe in the latter part of the year, EIA data shows.
While Russia and the U.S. compete for gas market share in Europe, the U.S. hit Russia's Nord
Stream 2 project with sanctions this month, delaying the completion of the project with at
least several months.
Following the announcement of the sanctions, Switzerland-based offshore pipelay and subsea
construction company Allseas
immediately suspended Nord Stream 2 pipelay activities.
Also
The agreement between Gazprom and Naftogaz provides for the rejection of new claims, withdrawal of claims, payment by the
decision of the Stockholm arbitration-Miller
MOSCOW, Dec 21-RIA Novosti. Gas transit through Ukraine in 2020 will be 65 billion cubic meters, and 40 billion in 2021-2024, said
the Head of "Gazprom" Alexey Miller.
In turn, the Minister of energy of Ukraine Oleksiy Orzhel noted that the tariff will increase due to a decrease in pumping volumes.
The agreement provides for the rejection of new claims, the withdrawal of claims and the payment of about 2.9 billion dollars on the
decisions of the Stockholm arbitration court.
In addition, Gazprom and Naftogaz will sign an agreement to settle mutual claims under existing contracts. With Kiev, the Russian
company will sign a settlement agreement to withdraw the claim of the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine.
The European Commission in the framework of the new agreement on gas cooperation guarantees the compliance of transit with EU
standards, the Ukrainian side-the independence of the regulator, protection of the interests of the transit customer, predictability
and economic feasibility of tariff formation.
MOSCOW, Dec 21-RIA Novosti. "Gazprom" and "Operator of GTS of Ukraine" on Saturday are preparing in Vienna inter-operator agreement
signed on Friday between Russia and Ukraine Protocol of the contract on gas transit and settlement of mutual claims is already
working, told reporters the representative of "Gazprom".
"... With Nordstream II becoming operational, Russia can bypass Ukraine completely in supplying gas to EU countries and Ukraine will only receive enough gas for its own needs. Ukraine becomes a liability to the West as that country continues its slow and agonising collapse. Perhaps in 2020 the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts may officially declare their independence and apply for inclusion into the Russian Federation, or combine into a new nation. Other adjoining oblasts (Kharkiv?) may follow suit. Transcarpathia oblast in the far west of Ukraine may declare independence and then apply to join Hungary. ..."
Nordstream II should be completed in 2020 in spite of the many handicaps and threats of
sanctions the US has applied against Germany if the pipeline project continues. Its
completion is bound to change the geopolitical landscape in central and eastern Europe
considerably.
With Nordstream II becoming operational, Russia can bypass Ukraine completely in
supplying gas to EU countries and Ukraine will only receive enough gas for its own needs.
Ukraine becomes a liability to the West as that country continues its slow and agonising
collapse. Perhaps in 2020 the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts may officially declare their
independence and apply for inclusion into the Russian Federation, or combine into a new
nation. Other adjoining oblasts (Kharkiv?) may follow suit. Transcarpathia oblast in the far
west of Ukraine may declare independence and then apply to join Hungary.
Volodymyr Zelensky may not last long as President and is likely to be turfed out in a
coup. Civil war will come again to Ukraine but not in its Russian-speaking east.
Belarus should be monitoring its own southern borders. Maybe crunch-time is coming for
President Lukashenko there as to whether he should align Belarus more closely with Russia or
with the EU instead of trying to get the best of both worlds by playing one against the
other.
My predictions for 2020 are that Ukraine's final collapse and fragmentation will start,
that the use of threats and sanctions continues to isolate the US to its detriment, and that
(maybe, just maybe) the collapse of Ukraine will lead to some of the truth of what actually
happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 becoming public with whistleblowers in the
investigation finally coming forward.
Re Jen @37 "With Nordstream II becoming operational, Russia can bypass Ukraine completely in
supplying gas to EU countries and Ukraine will only receive enough gas for its own needs."
I am hoping this is a bad joke, but perhaps not. I suppose, if true, it will prevent a lot
of Ukrainians from freezing to death this winter. But considering the benefits it will
provide to the Ukro-nazis who hate Russia, I have to wonder about the decision-making process
in Moscow.
Plain English Foundation has voted freedom gas as the worst word or phrase of 2019.
The term comes from the United States Department of Energy, which rebranded natural gas as
"freedom gas" and boasted about bringing molecules of US freedom to the world.
"When a simple product like natural gas starts being named through partisan politics, we
are entering dangerous terrain," said the Foundation's Executive Director, Dr Neil James.
"Why can't natural gas just remain natural gas?"
Each year, Plain English Foundation gathers dozens of examples of the worst words to
highlight the importance of clear and ethical public language.
The full list of 2019's worst words and phrases follows.
Europe is willing to defy the U.S. on Nordstream to the point of forcing the U.S. to openly and nakedly destroy its reputation
with European contractors and governments to stop one pipeline in a place where multiple gas pipelines will be needed for future
growth.
This is the diplomatic equivalent of the nuclear option. And the neocons in the Senate just pushed the button. Europe understands
what this is really about, the U.S. retaining its imperial position as the policy setter for all the world. If it can set energy
policy for Europe then it can set everything else.
And it's clear that the leadership in Europe is done with that status quo. The Trump administration from the beginning has used
NATO as an excuse to mask its real intentions towards Europe, which is continued domination of its policies. Trump complains that
the U.S. pays into NATO to protect Europe from Russia but then Europe buys its energy from Russia. That's unfair, Donald complains,
like a little bitch, frankly, even though he right on the surface. But if the recent NATO summit is any indication, Europe is no
longer interested in NATO performing that function. French President Emmanuel Macron wants NATO re-purposed to fight global terror,
a terrible idea. NATO should just be ended.
But you'll notice how Trump doesn't talk about that anymore. He wants more billions pumped into NATO while the U.S. still sets
its policies. This is not a boondoggle for the MIC as much as it's a Sword of Damocles to hold over Europe's head. The U.S.'s involvement
in should be ended immediately, the troops brought home and the billions of dollars spent here as opposed to occupying most of Europe
to point missiles at a Russia wholly uninterested in imperial ambitions no less harboring any of them.
And Trump also knows this but thinks stopping Nordstream 2 is the price Europe has to pay him for this privilege. It's insane.
The time has come for Europe to act independently from the U.S. As much as I despise the EU, to untangle it from the U.S. on energy
policy is the means by which for it to then deal with its problems internally. It can't do that while the U.S. is threatening it.
Circling the wagons against the immediate threat, as it were.
And that means protecting its companies and citizens from the economic depredations of power-mad neoconservatives in the U.S.
Senate like Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham.
Allseas, the Swiss company laying the pipe for Nordstream 2,
has halted construction for now
, awaiting instructions from the U.S. Gazprom will likely step in to finish the job and Germany will green light any of the necessary
permits to get the pipeline done. Those people will be put out of work just in time for Christmas, turning thousands of people against
the U.S. Commerce drives people together, politics drives them apart.
But, at the same time, the urgency to finish Nordstream 2 on time is wholly irrelevant now because Ukraine and Russia came to
terms on a new five-year gas transit contract. This ensures Gazprom can meet its contractual deliveries to Europe that no one thought
could be done on time. But when the Nazi threat to Zelensky meeting with Merkel, Macron and Putin in Paris failed to materialize,
a gas deal was on the horizon.
And, guess what? U.S. LNG will still not have the marginal lever over Europe's energy policy because of that. Putin and Zelensky
outmaneuvered Cruz, Graham and Trump on this. Because that's what this boils down to. By keeping Russian gas out of Europe, it was
supposed to constrain not only Russia's growth but also Europe's. Because then the U.S. government can control who and how much energy
can make it into European markets at critical junctures politically.
That was the Bolton Doctrine to National Security. And that doctrine brought nothing but misery to millions.
And if you look back over the past five years of U.S./EU relations you will see this gambit clearly for what it was, a way to
continue European vassalage at the hands of the U.S. by forcing market share of U.S. providers into European markets.
Again, it gets back to Trump's ideas about Emergy Dominance
and becoming the supplier of the marginal erg of energy to important economies around the world.
The smart play for the EU now that the gas transit deal is in place is to threaten counter-sanctions against the U.S. and bar
all LNG shipments into Europe. Gas prices are at historic lows, gas supplies are overflowing thanks to fears of a deal not being
in place.
So, a three to six month embargo of U.S. LNG into Europe to bleed off excess supply while Nordstream 2 is completed would be the
right play politically.
But, in reality, they won't need to, because the U.S. won't be able to import much into Europe under current prices and market
conditions. And once Nordstream 2 is complete, LNG sales to Europe should crater.
In the end, I guess it's too bad for Ted Cruz that economics and basic human ingenuity are more powerful than legislatures. Because
Nordstream 2 will be completed. Turkstream's other trains into Europe will be built. Venezuela will continue rebuilding its energy
sector with Russian and Chinese help.
There is no place for U.S. LNG in Europe outside of the Poles literally burning money virtue signaling their Russophobia. Nordstream 2 was a response to the revolt in Ukraine, to replace any potential losses in market share to Europe. Now Russia will
have what it had before passing through Ukraine along with Nordstream 2. By 2024 there will be at least two trains from Turkstream
coming into Europe.
Iran will keep expanding exports, settling its oil and gas trade through Russian banks. And the U.S. will continue to fulminate
and make itself even more irrelevant over time. What men like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump refuse to understand is that when you go nuclear you can't ever go back. If you threaten
the nuclear option, there's no fall back position.
And when those that you threaten with annihilation survive they are made all the stronger for passing through the eye of the needle. Looking at Gazprom's balance sheet right now, that's my take.
Being almost 100% sure that Israeli cornering East Mediterranean gas reserves was a done
deal
and after Cyprus gerrymandered its EEZ under UNCLOS -- and Greece signing up
as pipeline terminus in Europe -- Trump put this cart before horse -- and sanctioned
Nord Stream. Europe was to get Israeli gas. Then Turkey and Libya declared EZZ,
and pipeline cannot go!
Also. there will be other claimants to reserves -- Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza.
Nice try -- but Israel will not be supplying Germany gas any time soon.
Like it was earlier noted, the "New Detente" isn't perfect, as seen most recently by the US'
decision to impose sanctions on
the companies involved in Nord Stream II's construction, but once again, the state of relations
in general are still comparatively better than their nadir in mid-2014 immediately after the
EuroMaidan coup and Crimea's reunification with Russia. The US is still trying to "contain"
Russia with mixed success, while Russia is undertaking its best efforts to break out of this
"containment" noose and even "flip" some of the US' traditional partners such as Turkey, so the
New
Cold War probably won't end anytime soon. Nor, for that matter, did anybody reasonably
expect that it would, but just like during the Old Cold War, there comes a time when the
involved parties believe that it's in their best interests to proverbially take a break and
enter into a period of detente. It seems as though that phase is only now just beginning but
which has finally borne some fruit after Trump promised to pursue this outcome all throughout
the 2016 campaign.
One can argue over why that hasn't already happened to the extent that he promised (or even
if he was fully sincere in the first place), but the point to focus on in the here and now is
that some tangible progress has finally been made concerning the future of Russia's
trans-Ukrainian gas supplies to the EU. From the looks of it, all the relevant players --
Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and the US -- have concrete interests in seeing that this agreement is
upheld. It's convenient for Russia to continue using existing pipelines, Ukraine wants to get
paid for its transit role, the EU desires reliable but cheap gas imports, and the US recognizes
that this outcome perpetuates the geostrategic role of its Ukrainian proxy that it could then
leverage as a "bargaining chip" for reaching a more substantive "New Detente" with Russia
sometime next year or the one afterwards. That said, while each player has their interests,
they don't exactly trust one another for different reasons, which means that the "New Detente"
might still be offset if any of them decides to play the spoiler or is undermined by their
"deep states".
"... Sorry to burst your bubble, but since the end of the Soviet System (with Western criminal thieving BILLIONAIRES who rushed in to plunder Russia (Yeltsin Years) ---- Russians now live longer than the degraded, and impoverished Americans with what the Junk Food Nation serves in the US of A. ..."
https://www.dianomi.com/smartads.epl?id=4777 Washington's Unmasked Imperialism Towards
Europe And Russia by Tyler Durden Sat, 12/28/2019 - 07:00 0
SHARES
Washington must think the rest of the world is as stupid as many of its own politicians are.
Its passing into law – signed by President Trump this week – of sanctions to halt
the Nord Stream-2 and Turk Stream gas supply projects is a naked imperialist move to bludgeon
the European energy market for its own economic advantage.
US sanctions are planned to hit European companies involved with Russia's Gazprom in the
construction of the 1,225-kilometer pipeline under the Baltic Sea which will deliver natural
gas from Russia to Germany and elsewhere across the European Union. The €9.5 billion
($11bn) project is 80 per cent complete and is due to be finished early next year.
It is quite clear – because US politicians have openly acknowledged it – that
Washington's aim is to oust Russia as the main natural gas exporter to the giant EU market, and
to replace with more expensive American-produced gas.
What's hilarious is the way American politicians, diplomats and news media are portraying
this US assault on market principles and the sovereignty of nations as an act of chivalry.
Washington claims that the sanctions are "pro-European" because they are "saving Europe from
dependency on Russia for its energy". The American hypocrisy crescendoes with the further claim
that by stopping Russia earning lucrative export revenues, then Moscow will be constrained from
"interfering" in European nations. As if Washington's own actions are not interference on a
massive scale.
European politicians and businesses are not buying this American claptrap. The vast
overstepping by Washington into European affairs has prompted EU governments to question the
nature of the trans-Atlantic relation. About time too. Thus, Washington's hubris and bullying
are undermining its objective of dominating Europe for its own selfish interests.
Russia, Germany and others have defiantly
told Washington its weaponizing of economic sanctions will not halt the Nord Stream nor the
Turk Stream projects.
As German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas
said earlier this month, "it is unacceptable" for the US to brazenly interfere in European
and Russian energy trade. The American pretext of supposedly "protecting" the national security
of its purported European allies is frankly laughable.
The American agenda is a blatantly imperialistic reordering of the energy market to benefit
US economic interests. To pull off this audacious scam, Washington, by necessity, has to
demonize and isolate Russia, while also trampling roughshod over its European allies. Europe
has partly aided this American stitch-up of its own interests because it has foolishly indulged
in the US antagonism towards Russia with sanctions due to the Ukraine conflict, Crimea and
other anti-Russia smears.
The legislation being whistled through the American Congress by both Republicans and
Democrats (collectively dubbed the War Party) is recklessly fueling tensions between the US and
Russia. In trying to gain economic advantages over Europe's energy, Washington is wantonly
ramping up animus towards Moscow.
Apart from the sanctions against Russian and European companies partnering on Nord Stream,
the US Congress passed separate legislation which seeks to boost American oil and gas
production in the East Mediterranean.
A Radio Free Europe
report this week was headlined: 'Congress Passes More Legislation Aimed At Curbing Russia's
Energy Grip On Europe'.
The headline should more accurately have been worded: 'Congress Passes More Legislation
Aimed At Bolstering America's Energy Grip On Europe'.
The RFE report states: "The bipartisan Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership
Act, which was approved on December 19, is the latest piece of US legislation passed this year
that aims to diversify [sic] Europe's energy sources away from Kremlin-controlled
companies."
Again, the American double-think is jaw-dropping. Such is the arrogance of a flailing,
delusional empire when it can publicly justify with a straight face an energy-market-grab with
a veneer of virtue.
US oil and gas giants are moving into the East Mediterranean. Exxon Mobil
announced the discovery of a major natural gas field off Cyprus in February this year.
American firms are also
partnering with Israeli companies to begin gas production in the Leviathan Field located
off the coast at Haifa.
There is no doubt that the US sanctions targeting Nord Stream and Turk Stream are part of a
bigger concerted pincer movement by Washington to corner the EU energy market of 500 million
consumers (more than double the US population).
Colin Cavell, a US professor of political science, commented to Strategic Culture
Foundation: "What should be hammered down in this continuing debate over which country will be
able to deliver oil and natural gas to Europe is the fact that neither the United States nor,
and especially, the Republican Party, stand for so-called free trade."
Free-trade capitalism is supposed to be an ideological pillar of the US. In this ideology,
governments should not interfere with market supply and demand. But paradoxically as far as
US-imposed sanctions on Russian-European energy companies are concerned the American Congress
is "quintessentially anti-free market", notes Cavell.
In its shameless profiteering, Washington is acting aggressively towards Russia and Europe
while flouting its own supposed economic principles and relying on brute force to win its
arguments. America's imperialist agenda towards Europe and Russia is how world wars are
instigated.
"You will buy our more expensive, less efficient, non-market solution, you will pay for it
with King Dollars, and by gawd, YOU WILL LIKE IT, now shuddup, Vassals!" -- Uncle Scam and
the Reloonicans
I live in Denmark, a country Nord Stream 2 is going through. We are (used to be?) one of
the strongest allies to the US. But recent developments have alienated a lot of danes to the
US.
First Trump publicly announced he wanted to buy the isle of Greenland from Denmark.
Greenland is the largest isle in the world and of strategic importance. But you don't just
buy a part of another country, and this offer was firmly refused. As response to the refusal
Trump cancelled a previously planned official visit to Denmark. This was seen by most danes
as an insult.
Denmark was the last country holding out on permissions needed to build Nord Stream 2, but
after this incident we allowed the project to go forward. I believe the Greenland incident
caused the change making Denmark approve Nord Stream 2.
After this we have had other incidents. One is on the Faroe Islands (a part of Denmark),
where both US and Chinese ambassadors interfered in our internal affairs trying to influence
if Huawei could be used for 5G in this self-governing part of our country. Another is a
follow-up to the Greenland incident mentioned, where the US now wants to open a diplomatic
mission on the island, probably in an attempt to influence the local government to accept
that the US buys the island.
During the last year I have seen sentiment among my fellow citizens going from "the US is
great, let us support and follow them" to "we have to be careful of these guys, they
interfere in our internal affairs and try to break up our country".
I believe the US government is underestimating how much they are alienating the Europeans
with this line of foreing policy.
Its a guess but I think there are other hidden issues here nobody wants to talk about. Of
course, Trump idea of buying the island was stupid but I believe it arouse out of
frustration. You see, US wants to build huge military base there. Danes won't permit that.
The reason US wants to do it is because sea between Iceland and England/Norway is a
chokepoint aimed against Russian subs. This is the only place where they can be reasonably
stopped. It is nothing new, the same thing happened during WWII war at so called "war of
Atlantic" where the most of the fighting happened between German U-boats and alliance
marines.
You most certainly can buy land from other countries. Thomas Jefferson purchased the
entire center of N. America from the French and for pennies. We also purchased Alaska from
the Russians for next to nothing as well. Both land masses are much larger than all of
Europe.
You guys don't need Greenland so give it to us for pennies.
Russia has the largest proven reserves of easily recoverable oil and natural gas on Earth.
The US has about a decade to choke Russia to death. Economic sanctions, regime change, cyber
attacks...whatever it takes. If the US doesn't utterly break Russia soon, Russia will become
the next, (and last) empire on Earth. NeoConThink.
"The US has about a decade to choke Russia to death. "
Actually you are absolutely wrong on this. It is the other way around. Russia has to get
out of US chokefold NOW or it will likely disintegrate.
Why? In short, economy, geogaphy and even more importantly demographics.
Today there are about 110 million native Russians there. Next to them are about 40 million
muslims living there. Muslims have about twice as big reproduction rate as Russians do. It is
estimated that in 30 years if current trends stand it will be 50/50. Worse, in ten years
there will be only about 90 million Russians living there.
There are other issues as well. About 25 percent of Russian men die before the age of 55.
The reason? Alcoholism and drug abuse. Have you ever heard about cheap Rusian drug called
Krokodil?
It kills you slowly first then fast. Your body just ROTS AWAY and falls off. Literally!
Like you have bare bones instead of feet. No kidding. Just check on you tube.
Another problem is soldier materiel. It is estimated that only about 30 percent of males
between the age of 18-25 are healthy enough to join military. As of today it is barely
sufficient to fill the ranks. In 10 years Russian military will have to shrink by 20 percent.
From that perspective it is do or die for Russia right now. This is most likely the peak of
their military power, then it will slowly deteriorate. Putin knows that, hence he lashes out
at its neighbours, most notably Poland. Economy shrinks, military is on vane, hence he needs
an enemy to rally his people around. Or else!
Then there is China. Make your best bet what they will do in the far east when Russia lies
prostate.Remember, Russia took over a lot of Chinese territory in late XIX century there.
Yep, the area around Vladivostok and other nearby territories, the size close to that of
today's France..There are millions of Chinese already living there.In the Asian south Chinese already took controll of the former
Russian stans. They rule there, not Putin. You didn't know that?
"There are other issues as well. About 25 percent of Russian men die before the age of 55.
The reason? Alcoholism and drug abuse. Have you ever heard about cheap Rusian drug called
Krokodil?
It kills you slowly first then fast. Your body just ROTS AWAY and falls off. Literally!
Like you have bare bones instead of feet. No kidding. Just check on you tube."
Sorry to burst your bubble, but since the end of the Soviet System (with Western criminal
thieving BILLIONAIRES who rushed in to plunder Russia (Yeltsin Years) ---- Russians now live
longer than the degraded, and impoverished Americans with what the Junk Food Nation serves in
the US of A.
" Washington must think the rest of the world is as stupid as many of its own
politicians are"
No, washington thinks no such thing. It doesnt really understand how stupid its own
politicians are. Nor DOES IT CARE!.
Did anyone watch the impeachment proceedings? Now, THAT was stupid, stupid for the
whole world to watch. And then there is the chocoate cake diplomacy of Trump, the elegance
and sophistication of Pompeo, Bolton, and the digniity of Nikki Haley. Putting Raytheon to
run our Pentagon is a magical touch.
Comment from a friend of mine concerning the statement below. He has excellent security
credentials:
"Our President has made the world far more dangerous by withdrawing from treaties without
attempting to negotiate new ones. No country is well served by this. The situation is very
destabilizing."
The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu:
- I hope that a full-scale war is not a question today. And all the risks and consequences
that such a full-scale war entails are obvious to everyone.
Regarding the third world war, there are a very large number of different statements. The
most accurate and adequate of them seems to me: "I do not know exactly what the third world
war will be. But I know for sure that she will be the last. "
However, if we talk about the number of threats to our country, then they do not become
less. The United States has already withdrawn from two important nuclear arms control
treaties. So far, the START-3 treaty remains, which is also under discussion in the USA: to
renew it or not to renew it?
As a result of this approach, the world is becoming more unpredictable and less secure. At
the current level of informatization and automation, there is a high probability of errors in
the weapons control system.
That is why recently issues of ensuring information security have come to the fore. When
you are aware of your vulnerability and are interested in maintaining balance and universal
equal security, it makes you turn on your head.
And when you think how the United States continues to believe by inertia that a balance of
power has developed in your favor, a variety of ideas may come to your head, including not
the most reasonable ones. It is in this situation that I see the main threat now, and not
only for Russia, "the minister replied.
It's good cop/bad cop nonsense. Europe is occupied territory, and American huffing and
puffing at Russia is just meant to get Europe "better deals" for their projects with Russia.
The only ones who don't get it are spooks and Neo-Libs/Cons
What is not expected is rational discussion on what I have described here. But since facts
contrary to my expose here are missing I doubt it will happen.
" But remember also that todays Russia is ruled by a Tsar named Putin"
Im amazed at how long this silly meme can be maintained.
Putin is NOT and autocrat, he has to struggle with a delicate balance. between the Atlantic integrationists and Eurasiaon soveriigntists. The oligarchy installed by the US is still strong in Russian. They have not won their
soveriignty yet.
"... Time and time again Washington has tightened Russian sanctions in an effort to crush the Russian economy. When virtually every legal outlet had been sanctioned, Washington has turned to sanctioning third parties that cooperate with Russia. ..."
"... North American investors, led fully by Wall Street, account for over half of the foreign capital flowing into Russian stocks, according to the Moscow Exchange. By comparison, Russia's next door neighbors in Europe account for only 26%. ..."
"... Speaking on German TV, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said the sanctions were an infringement of sovereignty... The US sanctions have also angered Russia and the European Union, which says it should be able to decide its own energy policies. ..."
"... "As a matter of principle, the EU opposes the imposition of sanctions against EU companies conducting legitimate business," a spokesman for the trading bloc told AFP news agency on Saturday. ..."
"... According to German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, the American sanctions amount to "interference in autonomous decisions taken in Europe." ..."
"... Iran, Malaysia, Turkey and Qatar are considering trading among themselves in gold and through a barter system as a hedge against any future economic sanctions on them, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Saturday. ..."
"... They have their own undersea pipe-laying equipment and experience. These sanctions will only delay the completion date for a few more months. Russia under Putin is very patient, resolute and not prone to rash decisions. They play the long game and will win out in the end. ..."
"... The Great Gas Game: Vesti Presents a New Documentary Film About Pipelines and Power youtube.com ..."
"... Nord Stream 2 is financed by leading energy companies from France, Germany, the Netherlands, Great Britain and Austria, ENGIE, OMV, Shell, Uniper and Wintershall Dea. A multi-billion Euro investment in European industry and services, the project involves more than 200 companies from 17 countries worldwide. ..."
"... Well, congratulations Congress and Trump. This will drive a wedge between the US and Europe. Can you just imagine how those investing in NS2 feel about the US. The US is saying in effect - lose all of your investment because we have determined that the project is against our geopolitical/economic interests. And to make matters worse the pipeline will be completed, probably only 2 months behind schedule. So the financial backers will get hit, but will eventually see returns due to Russian efforts. Russia could have built the entire pipeline themselves, but preferred to have European partners. ..."
"... to Europe at the start of the 1980's, the US had just gone through the Oil Shock of 1978–79 . The US has not been a net exporter of oil for well over 75 years. It is only this year that this has changed through the extensive use of fracking. ..."
own goalnoun: (in soccer) a goal scored inadvertently when the ball is struck into the goal by a player on the defensive team.
Time and time again Washington has tightened Russian sanctions in an effort to crush the Russian economy. When virtually every
legal outlet had been sanctioned, Washington has turned to sanctioning third parties that cooperate with Russia.
So what is the
net effect of all of these sanctions?
The Russian stock market has reached record highs this year but still has room to climb further in coming months before paring
gains towards the end of 2020, a Reuters poll of market experts found... The rouble-based MOEX index has reached an all-time high of 3,009.1 in November, taking its year-to-date gain to over 25%, and
is seen finishing this year at 3,000.
That's not exactly what Washington had in mind.
However the real kicker is
this .
North American investors, led fully by Wall Street, account for over half of the foreign capital flowing into Russian stocks,
according to the Moscow Exchange. By comparison, Russia's next door neighbors in Europe account for only 26%.
So what is happening is that Washington is punishing Europe for cooperating with Russia, while turning a blind eye to when their
Wall Street donors cooperate with Russia.
As you may have guessed, this has created some hard feelings
.
Speaking on German TV, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said the sanctions were an infringement of sovereignty...
The US sanctions have also angered Russia and the European Union, which says it should be able to decide its own energy policies.
"As a matter of principle, the EU opposes the imposition of sanctions against EU companies conducting legitimate business,"
a spokesman for the trading bloc told AFP news agency on Saturday.
Imagine that: countries making their own policy decisions that don't align with Washington's interests? What's the world coming
to?
Allseas, a Dutch-Swiss private company, is going to be significantly harmed by the newest sanctions, and it will delay the Nord
Stream 2 pipeline (but it will only delay it).
However, there is a
bright side
to all of this.
While it costs Moscow hundreds of millions in lost income and additional investments, the country is benefitting on a geostrategic
and political level.
For a mere $9.5 billion, NS2's price tag, Moscow has unintentionally managed to drive another wedge between key Western allies.
Berlin is furious about the sanctions and its already fraught relations with Washington are set to escalate even further. According
to German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, the American sanctions amount to "interference in autonomous decisions taken in Europe."
What is certain is that NS2 will be completed eventually. Most of the work on the 1,230 kilometer or 765 mile long pipeline has
already been finished. Also, the vast majority of the $9.5 billion in investments have already been spent.
Much like our GWOT, we've reached a point in sanctions where staying the course just makes things worse.
It isn't just Russia. The Muslim world is looking for an
alternative trading system to avoid sanctions that Washington hasn't even threatened yet.
Iran, Malaysia, Turkey and Qatar are considering trading among themselves in gold and through a barter system as a hedge against
any future economic sanctions on them, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Saturday.
..."I have suggested that we re-visit the idea of trading using the gold dinar and barter trade among us," Mahathir said, referring
to the Islamic medieval gold coin.
"We are seriously looking into this and we hope that we will be able to find a mechanism to put it into effect." The leaders agreed they needed do more business among themselves and trade in each other's currencies.
You know that you are using sanctions too much when other nations expect to be sanctioned by you before you even consider doing
it. As for the gold dinar, this is what was proposed by Libya's former leader Gaddafi, and also what got him eventually
killed .
The most recent batch of Clinton emails reveals perhaps the most bizarre morsel of Blumenthal-baked intelligence to date. An April
2, 2011 memo titled "France's client/Q's gold" quotes "knowledgeable individuals" with insider information about French President
Nicolas Sarkozy's motivation for bombing Libya. The military campaign, the anonymous sources say, was designed to quash plans
by Gaddafi to use $7 billion in secret gold and silver to prop up a new African currency. The French worried the move would undercut
the currency guaranteed by the French treasury, known as CFA franc, that's widely used in West Africa and acts as a strong link
between France and many of its former African colonies. After French intelligence officials got wind of this secret plan, the
Blumenthal memo reports, Sarkozy freaked out: "This was one of the factors that influenced [his] decision to commit France to
the attack on Libya."
Kruschev Many remember the quote "We will bury you". I think he was quoting someone else. Lenin?
But they forget the second sentence. "And the capitalists will sell us the shovel."
Greed is indeed a sickness, a mental illness. Not ordinary greed, but Scrooge McDuck greed. The need to have more more more,
when it cannot possibly make any difference in your life.
Not like the guys I worked with that volunteered for every Holiday, every overtime opportunity. The money did make a difference
there, although one can question whether it is worth it. But pursuing an extra billion when you already have tens of billions?
How much is enough? How high is up.
EDIT:
I'm reminded of the old sitcom "Mama's Family". Dim bulb son, Vinton, hears of a new larger lottery jackpot and says, "Wow! Imagine
how many lottery tickets you could buy with that much money!"
EDIT2:
Like an alcoholic that just drinks more and more until he passes out.
@entrepreneur
that capitalism selects for people with this mental illness. A person with a healthy view of life will never be selected as fortune
500 CEO.
excessive are the mountains of paper they accumulate are still stimulated by acquiring more. #1
And whether it be newspapers solidly packing every room in their homes to a depth of 6 feet, leaving barely a 12" crawl space
between the top of the stacks and the ceiling, or be it a pile of money, more than they and their extended family and descendants
can spend in 100 years, it is hoarding, a mental illness.
They have their own undersea pipe-laying equipment and experience. These sanctions will only delay the completion date for
a few more months. Russia under Putin is very patient, resolute and not prone to rash decisions. They play the long game and will
win out in the end.
Nord Stream 2 is financed by leading energy companies from France, Germany, the Netherlands, Great Britain and Austria,
ENGIE, OMV, Shell, Uniper and Wintershall Dea. A multi-billion Euro investment in European industry and services, the project
involves more than 200 companies from 17 countries worldwide.
Well, congratulations Congress and Trump. This will drive a wedge between the US and Europe. Can you just imagine how those
investing in NS2 feel about the US. The US is saying in effect - lose all of your investment because we have determined that the
project is against our geopolitical/economic interests. And to make matters worse the pipeline will be completed, probably only
2 months behind schedule. So the financial backers will get hit, but will eventually see returns due to Russian efforts. Russia
could have built the entire pipeline themselves, but preferred to have European partners.
At the end of WWII most of Europe used coal for energy. The US had a goal to convert Europe to oil, since the US was the major
world exporter of oil. One of the stated reasons was to make Europe dependent on US oil and give the US political leverage over
European countries. So this whole thing is about the US projecting their geopolitical dominance schemes to Russia. As it has turned
out, for more than 70 years Russia and previously the USSR has never done that as a policy. The reason being that once you do
that you lose trust as a trade partner. But this is even worse as the US is interfering in trading among European partners that
has nothing to do directly with the US.
to Europe at the start of the 1980's, the US had just gone through the
Oil Shock of 1978–79 . The US
has not been a net exporter of oil for well over 75 years. It is only this year that this has changed through the extensive use
of fracking.
The oil shortage of the 1970's brought about the end of power generation using oil. The US, a major exporter of coal, was pushing
the use of American coal for energy security in Europe
since WWII.
Trump Makes American Coal Great Again -- Overseas
U.S. coal exports have exploded. Can that continue?
April 4, 2018
...
The export boom is the one part of Trump's pledge to help the coal sector that is coming true.
Production ticked up a bit last year after a disastrous 2016 but is still at the lowest level since 1978. And despite plenty
of promises to bring back jobs to coal country, coal mining employment only grew by some 1,100 jobs last year; mining employment
is down about 40 percent since 2012. Meanwhile, closures of coal-fired power plants continue apace, with more than two dozen
plants shutting down early last year alone, which means less domestic demand for coal.
...
And the Trump administration's other policies don't look like they'll end up helping coal much either. The push to increase
exports of natural gas to Europe, Asia, and Latin America undermines the overseas market for U.S. coal, since both can be used
to generate electricity. And as U.S. coal is shipped abroad, its price at home tends to rise slightly -- making coal even less
attractive as a power source there.
"Unfortunately, most of the policies the Trump administration is pursuing inside and outside of energy do not help domestic
coal production," Book says.
It's official: "Freedom gas" is the Worst Phrase of the Year, according to the Plain
English Foundation. But where does the expression come from? EURACTIV did not have to look
far to get the answer
So where does the whole story come from?
On 1 May, EURACTIV's energy and climate reporter Frédéric Simon attended
a briefing with US energy secretary Rick Perry in Brussels. He recalls the events
below.
The four journalists in the room had spent about an hour asking Perry a basic question:
why would Europeans choose to pay for expensive LNG imported from the US when they have
access to cheap Russian gas?
"But my surprise soon turned to dismay when Perry suddenly took a grave face and
started talking about the Normandy landings during WWII for which commemorations were planned
days after."
Here's what Perry went on to say: Seventy-five years after liberating Europe from Nazi
Germany occupation, "the United States is again delivering a form of freedom to the European
continent," the US energy secretary told reporters that day.
"And rather than in the form of young American soldiers, it's in the form of liquefied
natural gas," he added. "So yes, I think you may be correct in your observation," he said in
reference to Fred's suggestion about 'Freedom gas' .
####
Quite instructive about the mindset (f/king nuts) they are over in the States. They really
do live in their own universe where no-one picks up their dogs' (and their own) crap. They
neither notice the smell nor link to the slipperyness underfoot to their own actions. They
don't care either.
They like to talk about the European "blood-debt" to the USA.
I don't know what they think a large number of unfortunate young men were doing on Gold,
Juno and Sword beaches in June, 1944, or indeed that there were such beaches. Even moreso,
they are apparently unaware of the over 22 million Soviet citizens who died 1941-1945 during
what is known as "The Great Patriotic War for the Fatherland, 1941-1945"..
Analysts have identified a way to increase the export of Gazprom to bypass the Ukraine The
Eugal pipeline built to deliver gas from "Nord Stream-2 " to end users, will be operating
in 2020, despite US sanctions. "Gazprom" will redirect gas to this pipeline from "Northern
stream-1", experts say
The capacity of the Eugal onshore gas pipeline, built specifically for delivering gas from
the Nord Stream-2 offshore gas pipeline to end users, may allow Gazprom to increase supplies to
Europe bypassing the Ukraine, despite the fact that the United States has imposed sanctions
against laying the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline. , said experts interviewed by RBC.
The Gascade Gastransport operator,
controlled by Gazprom and the German Wintershall Dea , will commission the first of two Eugal
pipelines with a capacity of 30.9 billion cubic metres per year from January 1, 2020 (total
pipe capacity should be 55 billion cubic metres), which will go from German Greifswald on the
Baltic Sea to the south to the border with the Czech Republic, the Eugal press service said on
December 20. And the next day it became known that the European pipe-laying company Allseas had
suspended the construction of Nord Stream-2 (which should pump 55 billion cubic meters per
year) in the Baltic Sea.
Eugal will lay another 36 billion cubic metre capacity OPAL landline, built to pump gas from the first
Baltic gas pipeline of Gazprom and partners, Nord Stream-1, which achieved at full capacity 55
billion cubic metres per year back in October 2012. Since 2013, Gazprom could only use 50% of
OPAL capacity because of restrictions, and in 2016, the company received permission to connect
to 90% of the pipeline capacity. However, in September 2019, Gazprom was forced to reduce gas
pumping through OPAL, and then through Nord Stream-1, because of a decision of the European
Court of Justice, which, in lawsuit filed by Poland, limited supply by almost half – from
90 to 50% of capacity , or up to 18 billion cubic metres per year.
"The launch of Eugal will ensure a full load of Nord Stream-1. About 20 billion cubic
metres of gas per year can be delivered via a new land gas pipeline, which volume was lost
because of restrictions imposed as a result of Poland's victory in court", said Mikhail
Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, to RBC. The remaining 17–20 billion
cubic metre Gazprom can pump through a second branch from the offshore gas pipeline
NEL , which runs only through
Germany to the west of Greifswald, so Poland could not achieve restrictions on its
capacity.
At the peak of capacity, OPAL pumped up to 103 million cubic metres of gas per day owing to
a decision of the European Court to decrease transit to 50 million cubic metre. Last week, it
fell to 12 million cubic metres per day. This is due to an increase of 115 million cubic metres
per day in supplies to the NEL gas pipeline, as well as an increase in transit to Europe
through the territory of the Ukraine, Korchemkin points out.
"Now most of the gas from Nord Stream-1, which continues to operate at its design capacity,
is sent to the markets of northwestern Europe through NEL, that is, the limitation of the use
of OPAL by the decision of the European Court has practically had no affect on the load of Nord
Stream", added Deputy General Director of the National Energy Policy Fund, Alexey Grivach.
According to him, after the introduction of Eugal, part of the gas can go to Central Europe
through a new onshore gas pipeline, depending on the current market needs and the optimization
of Gazprom's export portfolio.
Despite the impending U.S. sanctions, the possibility of using Eugal to pump Gazprom's gas
was recognized in November by Arno Bux, chief commercial officer of gas transmission operator
Fluxys, which is a minority shareholder in Gascade. According to him, since 2020, from 80 to
90% of the Eugal capacity has already been booked for 20 years at auctions. "Since the
transportation facilities are reserved on a ship-or-pay basis (" transport or pay "), the
potential delays of the Nord Stream-2 project do not affect Eugal's revenues", he told
Interfax, noting that the flows from the gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 can be routed through
Eugal.
"We cannot predict the volumes that will be transported through Eugal, because it
depends on requests from transport customers", Gascade spokesman Georg Wustner told RBC on
December 23, declining to specify whether gas supplies from Nord Stream-1 will begin on
January 1 through a new onshore pipeline. A representative of Gazprom Export declined to
comment; the press service of Nord Stream AG (operator of the Nord Stream-1 project) did not
respond to a request from RBC.
Lavrov on the 22nd appeared on what looks to be an interesting program on Russia's Channel
One--
"The Great Game Show" with a transcript at the link. Most of the questions deal with
Lavrov's recent trip to the Outlaw US Empire and his meetings with Trump and Pompeo. I found
Lavrov's remarks about Congress most revealing as they're very similar to what he says about
the tiny Russophobic nations other NATO nations seem to feel they can't break with the
overall consensus despite its being idiotic. His response is related to the illegal sanctions
laid against the construction of Nord Stream 2:
"They are threatening it. I said it will be built, no matter what, despite all these
threats. First, I am convinced that the Europeans understand their commercial interest.
Second, this implies an interest in the context of maintaining long-term energy security.
Third, they were, of course, humiliated. The statements were, nevertheless, made, including
those from Berlin which shows that our European partners still retain a sense of dignity.
"I am confident that, just like the TurkStream project, Nord Stream 2 will be implemented,
and TurkStream will start operating some two or three weeks from now.
"US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo want to expand trade, but
the US Congress continues to bombard our relations with sanctions. A situation that has now
shaped up in the United States shows that, in their striving to revise election results and
the will of the American people, these Congressmen are ready to do anything, including
absolutely reckless things that, I would say, are not worthy of serious politicians."
As you read the transcript, you'll realize that this is a very serious program where the
truth of the overall situation is being revealed and remarked upon in a manner that would be
unimaginable here within the Outlaw US Empire, and I presume the program is viewed by a
majority of Russians. It should certainly be read in relation to what Putin said at
his presser on
the topics covered and at the Informal CIS Summit .
Many are busy with their plans for the holidays, and the combined transcripts will take
4-6 hours to read, so perhaps bookmark them to read before New Year when more time's
available.
"... It would have been simpler and much cheaper to supply the gas through land pipelines via Ukraine, the Baltics and Poland. But the undersea pipelines had to be built because the Levantine dual nationals parachuted in by the State Department to rule over Ukraine and the Baltics on Washington's behalf have shown themselves to be totally unreliable economic partners. Ukraine refused to pay for gas that was supplied and stole gas intended for European countries. The rabid Levantines in the Baltics and Poland were equally hostile. They could have made billions in transit fees, but they always insisted on cutting off their noses to spite their faces. Bulgaria blocked South Stream on Washington's instructions and lost a reliable source of cheap gas and $400 million a year in transit fees. A lot of money and a lot of jobs for a poor country. US satellites pay a high price to kowtow to Uncle Sam. Russia developed its own port facilities in the Baltic and Riga is now a ghost town. ..."
"... Its surprising how history repeats itself. In the first decade of the nineteenth century, Napoleon achieved dominance over continental Europe. Only Britain stood against him. Napoleon tried to bring Britain to heel through economic warfare, the Continental System, ordering European countries not to trade with his sole remaining enemy. His orders were ignored all the way from Spain to Russia, and this lucrative trade continued. The invasion of Russia and the debacle at Moscow were an attempt to enforce the Continental System. In a similar fashion, Washington's hubris and unbridled arrogance are now alienating even its most abject, cringing, servile satraps like Macron, Merkel, and Erdogan. With the same result. ..."
"... Uncle Sam sees Nord-2 as an energy superpower challenge to energy supremacy which equates to American supremacy & hegemonic supremacy writ large across the world. If the pinko commie bastards in the Russian Federation make inroads by unilaterally making massive energy deals with the entire EU we will see American interests clamoring for market inroads & market share so that the pinko commie bastards in the Russian Federation don't make a dime. ..."
"... Uncle Sam is in actuality a waning ex-superpower thug that is yesterday's man but can't stand being taken out of the limelight being the narcissist nation it is. ..."
"... Zackarova is bang on in that the USA is wholly incompetent to govern their own business interests let alone other sovereign interests. Nord-2 is necessary infrastructure that the USA wants to thwart for their own monetary benefit. ..."
"... Stepping aside from the geopolitics for a moment. In terms of economics the US is attempting to push Russia out of natural gas markets. ..."
"... Greenpeace is yet another "NGO" that is heavily influenced by the National Endowment for Democracy a CIA front that supports US Imperialism. ..."
"... One wonders if the invertebrates of the EU will ever tire of being bullied by the Global Bullying Thug in Chief? The clerico-fascists of priest-ridden Poland one can understand, and the phony 'greens' of Greenpeace the sell-out specialists, but the others are just like mongrel dogs-the more you kick them, the more they lick your boots. ..."
What would Dr Kampmark consider to be an ecologically cleaner alternative to Nordstream I and 2? The US proposal to supply LNG
via an endless conga line of tankers across the North Atlantic would be an ecological nightmare, to say nothing of the specialised
port facilities that need to be built to accommodate the tankers, the extra pipelines needed to pipe the gas to areas of Europe
away from the Atlantic and the potential for accidents and disasters during annual hurricane season. Europe needs the best energy
supply solution possible from a sustainability POV and other POVs and while Nordstream I and 2 may not be perfect, other solutions
are either worse, more expensive or less certain and stable in the long term.
Shale gas is also poop. Only someone totally corrupt or totally insane would buy such junk from the USA.
The collapse of an empire brings up such interesting stuff.
I am of course a Russian troll for stating the obvious, so a merry Christmas from the Kremlin.
Let nuclear bombers fly, baby. Who wants another Christmas. The majority of the present American government (including Trump) are evangelical Christians who believe in
the Rapture . You wouldn't put such people in charge of a
car park, let alone put them in charge of the biggest nuclear weapons arsenal on the planet.
I find this a bit of a strange piece, for reasons that many others have pointed out here in the comments.
With regard to the environmental angle, I should perhaps point out that by far the biggest polluter on the planet is the US
military.
MASTER OF UNIVE ,
The US Military pollutes everything under the sun far past Internet & the over 900 worldwide bases it occupies. Heck, the US MIC
pollutes all sports venues with their propagandistic parades of adherence to state & flag military shows.
In the USA they make you stand in honour of the military at sports events.
I'm glad I don't go down to the USA for the USA Grand National Drag Racing events just because of the MIC pollution at events.
Their propaganda pollution is all over the Internet and that is toxic waste that we all have to sift through on our way to real
news aside from institutional American killing of the third world.
GI-Joe turned out to be anything but a good hippie in my book.
MOU
ttshasta ,
The article mentions Rex Tillerson, yet fails to mention Qatar. Exxon Mobil & Exxon Mobil Qatar, that Tillerson worked for, want
to run an LP pipeline from the Norths Pars gas field, the worlds largest, and Qatar owns 2/3 of,through Saudi Arabia, through
Jordan, Syria, through Alleppo then through Turkey on to Europe. Thus Qatar, S.A. and Turkey have sponsored the foreign invasion
of Syria that the the dolts at NPR to this day call a civil war. The US's Al Udeid air base in Qatar is the largest in the region,
Cheney has been to Qatar many times as have Barack and Michele Obama, John Ashcroft was paid $2.5 million to defend Qatar from
post 911 terrorism charges.
Does it seem the article misses the elephant in the room? US Qatari investments must profit?
Never forget the Clintons, Qatar donates to Clinton Foundation, State Dpt. sells weapons to Qatar (diverted to Syria?), candidate
Clinton to declare no fly zone over Syria as POTUS.
In 2016 Thierry Messan's Voltairenet dot org translated an article from Petra the official Jordanian press paper that S.A. financed
20% of Clinton's campaign, which is illegal under US law. Subsequently, and conveniently, Saudi Prince M.B.S. declared Petra had
been hacked and the report was false. I rely on Thierry's translations, and his voluminous site.
Excellent comment. As always, one should follow the money trail.
paul ,
I've never understood the argument that buying Russian gas is a threat to the security of European countries. Russia doesn't supply
the gas out of altruism, it does so because it wants their money. They are dependent on Russian gas. Russia is dependent on their
money. Mutual dependence, mutual gain.
During the Cold War, Russia always supplied every last gallon of oil and every cubic foot of gas that contracts obliged it
to deliver. It did so, again because it wanted their money. Simple as that.
It would have been simpler and much cheaper to supply the gas through land pipelines via Ukraine, the Baltics and Poland. But
the undersea pipelines had to be built because the Levantine dual nationals parachuted in by the State Department to rule over
Ukraine and the Baltics on Washington's behalf have shown themselves to be totally unreliable economic partners. Ukraine refused
to pay for gas that was supplied and stole gas intended for European countries. The rabid Levantines in the Baltics and Poland
were equally hostile. They could have made billions in transit fees, but they always insisted on cutting off their noses to spite
their faces. Bulgaria blocked South Stream on Washington's instructions and lost a reliable source of cheap gas and $400 million
a year in transit fees. A lot of money and a lot of jobs for a poor country. US satellites pay a high price to kowtow to Uncle
Sam. Russia developed its own port facilities in the Baltic and Riga is now a ghost town.
Uncle Sam is now waging economic warfare and imposing sanctions on its previously most loyal and obedient satellites, Canada,
Mexico, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Turkey.
Its surprising how history repeats itself. In the first decade of the nineteenth century, Napoleon achieved dominance over
continental Europe. Only Britain stood against him. Napoleon tried to bring Britain to heel through economic warfare, the Continental
System, ordering European countries not to trade with his sole remaining enemy. His orders were ignored all the way from Spain
to Russia, and this lucrative trade continued. The invasion of Russia and the debacle at Moscow were an attempt to enforce the
Continental System. In a similar fashion, Washington's hubris and unbridled arrogance are now alienating even its most abject,
cringing, servile satraps like Macron, Merkel, and Erdogan. With the same result.
MASTER OF UNIVE ,
Uncle Sam sees Nord-2 as an energy superpower challenge to energy supremacy which equates to American supremacy & hegemonic supremacy
writ large across the world. If the pinko commie bastards in the Russian Federation make inroads by unilaterally making massive
energy deals with the entire EU we will see American interests clamoring for market inroads & market share so that the pinko commie
bastards in the Russian Federation don't make a dime.
Uncle Sam is in actuality a waning ex-superpower thug that is yesterday's man but can't stand being taken out of the limelight
being the narcissist nation it is.
Can you imagine being dependent on the usa for anything never mind fracked gas at twice the price.no doubt brave new worlder boris
will go for it.gb inc looks over and done with.
Guy ,
"Can you imagine being dependent on the usa for anything"
Yes I can .I live in Canada and they basically own our country, for all intent and purposes .
They did not conquer us militarily but they so corporately.
MASTER OF UNIVE ,
Zackarova is bang on in that the USA is wholly incompetent to govern their own business interests let alone other sovereign interests.
Nord-2 is necessary infrastructure that the USA wants to thwart for their own monetary benefit.
The USA is anachronism, insolvent, and lacks common sense as well as entrepreneurial spirit & business acumen.
MOU
padre ,
How very concerned about environment we are, when somebody else is "destroying" it!
paul ,
The US certainly showed how concerned it was about the environment with the North Dakota pipeline.
Francis Lee ,
Stepping aside from the geopolitics for a moment. In terms of economics the US is attempting to push Russia out of natural gas
markets. If a company did this it would be attempting to construct a monopoly and be subject to anti-competitive laws. If the
US becomes the sole supplier in Europe then it has a stranglehold, both economic and political, on Europe. That's the strategy,
and it seems blatantly obvious.
But the construction being put on this sordid little play by the Anglo-American MSM is that the
US frackers – who never make a profit – are doing Europe a really big favour by enabling them not to become dependent on Russian
gas. The Europeans should there for be grateful for US LNG since it will enable to diversify away from Russian gas.
The reality is, however, that once you become dependent on a single overseas crucial energy source you have been unceremoniously
grabbed by the short and curlies.
Antonym ,
Simply connect more European harbors to the existing gas pipeline network and choose the LNG supplier you want.
Not rocket science but Dutch PM Rutte was sold on abolishing natural gas because of CO2, while trees from North America for burning
in power plants was fine.
Neighbour PM Merkel Germany wants gas but not nuclear (a scientist!). France wants nuclear but rely on a new unproven expensive
design.
Political inmates are running the EU madhouse.
John Deehan ,
In this article, it misses the whole point of why the USA wants to impose sanctions, rather late in the day, on companies involved
in its construction. Namely, the continued attempts by it to isolate The Russian Federation and its its long term strategy of
preparations for war. Moreover, the omission of the reasons why Russia built the gas pipeline could not be more striking. The
coup in the Ukraine made the transit of Russian gas to western Europe via its territory open to pressure from the USA. Hence why
the Russians built the pipeline in the first place. It's the same reasons why the USA is attempting to prevent other Russian gas/oil
pipelines in other parts of the world.
Francis Lee ,
If anything illustrates the reality of the EU-NATO 'alliance' it is this. The US to Germany – and by extension the rest of the
EU – 'You will take expensive US LNG gas and like it' Me Tarzan you Jane. This brazen realpolitik illustrates the true nature
of the vassalised EU. And of course Poland, Romania – please station your inter-mediate range missiles here – and the Baltic uber-Petainist
elites come chiming in 'America the Beautiful.' More than anything this explodes the idea of the EU as a third geopolitical bloc.
It is an occupied region always has been and is composed of countries which can't actually defend their own interests whilst privileging
the US.
Gutless and spineless!
George Cornell ,
Indeed. And as reluctant as I am to entertain it, the Brutish ( spellcheck wants it to be British, no irony there) US is forcing
any vertebrate in the EU to crave armed forces.
Why poor EU countries buy the bollocks that is the relentless pressure or requirement from NATO to buy American and Israeli arms
is beyond me. They should be much more frightened of the Americans than the imaginary bogeymen to the East.
You mean like the Azov Battalion, Right Sector and C-14?
Those bogeymen Tim? Some of whom are now in Hong Kong helping Joseph Wong and his mates fight for 'freedom and democracy' with
some help from people in, er, Langley Virginia. Oh, and Nancy Pelosi.
Well, I support the right of all peoples to self-determination as a universal right and oppose imperialism/neo-imperialism regardless
of who does it, so your false dichotomy does not apply to me.
I thought you were referring to the neo nazi thugs in Ukraine that sprung up like weeds after rain following the overthrow of
Yanukovych by you know who. No, it wasn't Putin. And no, I'm not a fan either.
All bullshit pushed by Mr Hopey Changey that has put the world in grave peril.
In fact the changes of nuclear war are greater than any time in history.
And what happened when the Berlin Wall came down Tim?
Bush solemnly promised Gorbachev that NATO would not move one inch eastward.
And where are NATO now?
paul ,
Then no doubt you support the right of the Crimea and Donbas to self determination from the CIA installed Fascist Coup Regime.
George Cornell ,
Oh for Chrissake! And where were you about Gitmo? And Iraq, and Yemen, and Syria, and Libya? And the lithium in Afghanistan makes
it morally justified? Put the photo of Kissinger on a bearskin rug in your drawer and tell me about how the 95% of Crimeans who
wanted to be part of Russia invalidates what happened there.
Come back to me about the sandbars in the South China Sea. Now there's a place to increase your debt.!
lundiel ,
Russia isn't occupying any of Ukraine. There are Russian volunteers and Russia is giving them some weapons and no doubt finance
but the Russian army isn't at war with Ukraine.
Jay ,
If they were, the war would have been on Kiev's doorstep.
Francis Lee ,
The only people 'taking' seven percent of the Ukraine are those who already live in the Donbass and Crimea are the Russian-speaking
inhabitants who have lived there for generations and who are defending their homeland against the Ukie Army and its Waffen SS
look-alikes in the Azov Battalion and various other neo-nazi outfits like Praviy Sektor, and the Tornado Battalion and Dnipro1
and other charming little outfits such as 'Patriots of the Ukraine' – backed by right-wing fanatics in the Ukrainian Rada namely
Biletsky and Parubiy.
These people are the direct descendants of the scum of the murderous Banderist pro-Nazis who were responsible for mass extermination
of Russians, Jew, and above all, Poles in Volhynia in the far west of the Ukraine between 1943-45. The Ukrainian Insurgent army
(UPA – led by Shukeviych) was the military wing of Bandera's OUN-B (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists). Unfortunately for
for Mr B, he had an unfortunate rendezvous with a KGB hit-man in Munich in 1955. RIP.
Long live the heroic resistance of the Peoples Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Frank Speaker ,
Exactly Francis.
Some of my family were massacred by these bastard who were their neighbours: a woman cut upon at the front, a woman with a
wooden stake driven through her head, two children thrown down a well. That NATO aided and abetted these same evil scum to overthrow a democratically elected government and re-start their murderous
ways – this time around upon the ethnic Russians in the wast of the country – I cannot forgive my political leaders who have done
this.
That our MSM completely ignore this situation, I cannot forgive them, and that's why I am here.If there's a place called hell, I hope there's a special place reserved for our leaders and media owners who have done this.
eddie ,
They are occupying Jacque Schitt, but their 93rd aid convoy to the Donbas in November, consisting of 45 trucks, was not imaginary.
Greenpeace is yet another "NGO" that is heavily influenced by the National Endowment for Democracy a CIA front that supports US
Imperialism.
I'm ambivalent on the issue of pipelines ( see Keystone XL Pipeline being driven through Indian Land in total violation of
the Laramie Treaty) since they are environmentally destructive but the fact is that this is all about politics and has nothing
to do with protecting the environment.
If "Russia's" Greenpeace was so concerned about the environment they'd worry about their backyard first such as the network
of pipelines being run through Siberia.
richard le sarc ,
One wonders if the invertebrates of the EU will ever tire of being bullied by the Global Bullying Thug in Chief? The clerico-fascists
of priest-ridden Poland one can understand, and the phony 'greens' of Greenpeace the sell-out specialists, but the others are
just like mongrel dogs-the more you kick them, the more they lick your boots.
Boats of LNG floating across the Atlantic to Poland is not energy security. Whatever the politics of Nord Stream 2 we may be assured
the US has not got our back in Europe on this.
We may also be in need of energy sooner than we think, as professor Valentina Zharkova of Northumbria University suggests.
Unlike the Guardian her catastrophe theory goes in the other direction where in the next few years Earth will enter into a cooling
phase. That will set off a series of events leading to a mini ice age as happened with the Maunder Minimum of the 17th Century.
"Gazprom has purchased a pipe-laying ship which would allow the company to build undersea
pipelines despite sanctions. The new vessel may be used to build the Nord Stream-2 gas
pipeline to Europe."
Apparently the Russians think several steps ahead of the Americans.
This article has all one
needs to know about Russia/Gazprom's ability to finish the job abandoned by the Swiss
cowards, although their ships are apparently still on station. Yes, there'll be a delay, but
that won't matter much. Pissing off the Germans was the absolute wrong move!
@80 Jen It is much too late for the Danes to step in and stop Nord Stream 2.
Their permission was required because the pipe enters their economic zone, but once that
permission was given then the pipelaying started on the basis of "good faith". If the Danes
attempted to renege then I would imagine that it would be Russia and Germany who would tie up
Denmark in legal red-tape, not the other way around, and by the time this got to court the
pipeline would be completed and the gas would be flowing.
The USA's only hope now is that its sanctions scare off companies like Allseas, but that
hope relies on the western conceit that Russia is too technologically backward to be able to
take over and finish the job.
But the Russians are very capable, and extremely wily: if you look at my original post you
will see a link from 2016 where the Russians are already spelling out exactly what they
intend to do.
They acquired a suitable pipeline-laying ship at last three years. They admitted at the
time that they acquired it that it made no economic sense for them to acquire such a
ship.
Economics be damned. They bought it because they had to consider the possibility that the
USA is run by a bunch of duplicitous shits.
As I'm following the case closely, a few supplements.
The problem with the high tech Russian pipelaying vessel is that it is deployed in the Far
East and would need months to get to the scene. The Russian Fortuna lacks the technical
permission from the Danes to work in their waters, but it is suspiciously idling at the
German Coast. NorthStream 2 could ask Denmark to get a special allowance for the Fortuna to
work, and that is not so far-fetched as it seems because Denmark has a new government since
last June.
The Fortuna will at least finish the German part of the pipeline. A German court yesterday
has turned down a complaint by environmentalists who are worried about wintering birds.
The sanctions are a huge strategical blunder of the USA. Yes, the Germans are pissed off,
from the bosses of the chemical industry to the "ordinary people". You can almost hear the
tectonic subterranean crack that moves Germany away from the Anglosphere towards Russia.
In German politics, the Transatlanticians are now in the defensive. The most powerful
transatlantic institutions are IMO the various intelligence services, BND, BfV and so on.
They have certainly initiated the "scandal" about the murdered Georgian djihadist (you
remember, two Russian diplomats were expelled immediately) in order to sabotage the Normandy
talks and NordStream 2 and push Merkel to distance herself from Russia. This has failed,
obviously. Stupid white men.
An excellent show from last week. However still relevant with some reminders from the 80s
that are quintessential irony. Sanchez's journalistic delivery is impressive.
Rapoza's latest effort, for Forbes, is his review of the Russia/Ukraine gas deal that
everyone is talking about. His take, in summary, is that Russia did not really have to give
up very much, it would be to Ukraine's advantage to stop fucking around and concentrate now
on the issues, that Ukraine dropped a very large amount in claims in return for not very much
money (although he does not say how likely Ukraine would have been to win them in court, and
my personal opinion is not very), that Nord Stream II will be completed with not a
significant amount of delay, and that Russia can implement the same no-gas-through-Ukraine in
five years if it does not like the way things are going.
As usual, the range of interpretations of gas agreements is wide and full of water. Most of them have hidden recognition of
groundlessness, because even a simple reading of the document requires above average schooling.
Here is this document, where it is written in black and almost white that the parties agreed on such and such conditions:
All talk about a Ukrainian victory or a Russian victory should be left to politicians for domestic consumption, although,
to be fair, it is worth noting: Ukrainian functionaries immediately claimed it is a victory for Ukraine. This sounded against
the background of the absence of fanfare in Russia, which, in the face of the most difficult negotiations, would be extremely
inappropriate.
Why?
Because
Gazprom
is Gazprom, not Russia. Confusion in concepts is a very characteristic phenomenon for immature structures and
individuals on both sides. So talk of Russia allegedly forgiving Ukraine $3 billion in credit has nothing to do with the topic
at all. There is no word in the document about this, which is natural, because, I will repeat: Russia is not Gazprom.
However, the
Naftogaz
fanfare coming from Vitrenko's mouth is also understandable on the other hand: the board (8 people) will not have
to return millions of dollars already distributed to their pockets as part of the prize according to the results of the
Stockholm Arbitration
. Moreover, now, if Gazprom pays the claim amount, the premium will increase significantly.
As for the amount Gazprom has pledged to pay – about $3 billion – it is less than 1% of the assets of the Russian gas giant
(not to be confused with capitalisation). Few will notice this drop in the ocean. And for Naftogaz? In the absence of
up-to-date information about the assets of this structure, I believe that the figure is comparable to all assets, especially
since, according to the current reform, the Ukrainian gas transit system, the market value of which is no more than $1.5
billion (according to the Chairman of the Board
Kobolev
), leaves from under Naftogaz in general.
Conclusion: tactically Naftogaz and its board benefited from a contract with Gazprom. Strategically, as it seems, Gazprom
at least did not lose, firstly, significantly reducing the term of the contract and the volume of pumping on the gas transit
system of Ukraine, taking into account the forthcoming and inevitable implementation of "
Nord
Stream-2
" and, secondly, leaving itself the right to disagree with transit tariffs, which remain the subject of
negotiations:
Point 2.2.3 The organising company [Naftogaz] will contact LLC "Operator of gas transit system of Ukraine" for the
reservation of capacities of the gas transit system of Ukraine
Provided that at the time of reservation by NCSREPU [National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public
Utilities] a
competitive tariff
recognised by the Organising Company and corresponding to the level of gas
transportation tariffs applied in the countries of western and central Europe will be established.
Point 3.2 The Ukrainian side
will take all necessary measures
(create all necessary conditions) by
29.12.19:
for ensuring reliable legal protection of the interests of the client of services [Gazprom] on transit,
predictability, transparency, economic validity, and stability of tariff formation
;
What went on behind the scenes went almost unnoticed:
1. Ukraine's demand for imported gas, which is still falling due to the decline in production capacity, will be covered
from the volumes approved by the agreement (65 billion m3 in 2020 and 40 billion m3 in the following 4 years). The volume of
imports according to various estimates remains at about 20 billion m3 per year. Tariffs will not be applied on all the Russian
gas that Ukraine will consume from pumping on the gas transit system and will be implemented on the territory of Ukraine at
its own expense. The volume subject to a transit tariff will be determined by the difference between the entrance to the
Ukrainian gas transit system and the exit to Europe.
2. All preliminary talk about gas discounts for Ukraine was not included in the agreement. Thus, the price of gas remains
the subject of bargaining and is inevitably dependent on the transit tariff: the higher the price of transit – the higher the
price of gas and, accordingly, vice versa.
3. In fact, the issue of direct gas supplies to Ukraine is not worth discussing at all. I.e., in the event of a
non-agreement on the price, all gas will come to Europe, Ukraine will earn from transit, but these earnings will be offset by
the increased price of gas on the reverse. Thus, even in the event of pumping all gas to Europe, earnings from transit,
according to experts, will not even cover the cost of servicing the Ukrainian gas transit system.
Lastly, Gazprom – which is not Russia, but behind whose back Russia certainly stands, and was opposed by both Ukraine and
the European Union, represented by the European Commission, as well as the United States with its global interests – managed,
at a minimum, to minimise its tactical losses and preserve strategic Russian interests.
The gas war appears to have retreated, but the most interesting thing is yet to come.
I linked a Russian newspaper article above which analysed the deal and in which it was
pointed out that the $3 billion that Gazprom coughed up is 1% of the annual turnover of that
company. And another thing that the article pointed out was that the deal is between Gazprom
and Naftogaz notRussia and the Ukraine. In return for that $3 billion,
which will be pocketed by many Yukitard bastards, I am sure, Gazprom's never ending
altercations with the Yukie gas outfit over compensation and claims and counter-claims have
had a line drawn under them. I suppose that's really why the Porky bloc in the rada is taking
action against the deal: they fear that their nice little earner is being stifled, in that
penalties imposed by arbitration courts against Gazprom have seemingly ended.
All talk about a Ukrainian victory or a Russian victory should be left to politicians
for domestic consumption, although, to be fair, it is worth noting: Ukrainian functionaries
immediately claimed it is a victory for Ukraine. This sounded against the background of the
absence of fanfare in Russia, which, in the face of the most difficult negotiations, would be
extremely inappropriate.
Why?
Because Gazprom is Gazprom, not Russia. Confusion in concepts is a very characteristic
phenomenon for immature structures and individuals on both sides. So talk of Russia allegedly
forgiving Ukraine $3 billion in credit has nothing to do with the topic at all. There is no
word in the document about this, which is natural, because, I will repeat: Russia is not
Gazprom.
However, the Naftogaz fanfare coming from Vitrenko's mouth is also understandable on
the other hand: the [Naftogaz] board (8 people) will not have to return
millions of dollars already distributed to their pockets as part of the prize
according to the results of the Stockholm Arbitration. Moreover, now, if Gazprom pays the
claim amount, the premium will increase significantly.
As for the amount Gazprom has pledged to pay – about $3 billion – it is
less than 1% of the assets of the Russian gas giant (not to be confused with
capitalisation). Few will notice this drop in the ocean. And for Naftogaz? In the absence of
up-to-date information about the assets of this structure, I believe that the figure is
comparable to all assets, especially since, according to the current reform, the Ukrainian
gas transit system, the market value of which is no more than $1.5 billion (according to the
Chairman of the Board Kobolev), leaves from under Naftogaz in general.
Conclusion: tactically Naftogaz and its board benefited from a contract with Gazprom.
Strategically, as it seems, Gazprom at least did not lose, firstly, significantly reducing
the term of the contract and the volume of pumping on the gas transit system of Ukraine,
taking into account the forthcoming and inevitable implementation of "Nord Stream-2" and,
secondly, leaving itself the right to disagree with transit tariffs, which remain the subject
of negotiations
The USA government acts as a gangster and should expect that other power will behave equally
bad toward the USA. That's a very bad, disastrous calculation, even in view of the current USA
technological superiority (which might shrink in the future)
Pride goeth before a fall. Washington is proud of itself, but a day will come when it will
count the cost, and mutter, "What the fuck was I thinking?" It was not ever going to actually
interrupt, and then seize for itself, Russia's share of the European gas market – that
was just another example of its addled belief in exceptionalism and its ability to overcome
any and all limiting factors, including distance and capacity.
What it HAS done is reveal itself as a petulant global child who will break anything that
does not please it, and therefore a dangerous and unpredictable business partner.
Thus spake the official Washington arsehole in Germany:
The American Ambassador in Berlin Richard Grenell, about whom it has already been
requested in Germany that he be recognized as persona non grata because of his
repeated attacks against the German leadership, has said that the sanctions imposed by
Washington against the pipeline "Nord Stream-2" had been introduced in the interests of the
EU and many countries of Europe are grateful for them.
"Seriously: from 15 European countries, the European Commission and the European
Parliament have all expressed their concerns about the project. We have long heard from our
European partners that the United States should support their efforts. Therefore, sanctions
represent a very Pro-European solution", said Grenell to the publication
Bild am Sonntag . [A German arsewipe publication of the first magnitude -- ME]
According to him, European diplomats have allegedly already repeatedly expressed their
gratitude for the measures taken by Washington.
Recall that the United States, which from time to time has opposed the emergence in
Europe of a strong competitor for its gas, imposed sanctions against the pipelines "Nord
Stream-2" and "Turkish Stream", requiring that the companies involved in their laying
immediately stop construction. In response, the German government has said it "rejects such
extraterritorial sanctions" directed "against German and European companies.
Just two events that occurred during Saturday night have turned into one of the main news
stories in recent months and years: Russia, the Ukraine and the European Commission signed a
trilateral agreement on the transit of gas over the coming years from Russia to the EU via
the Ukrainian GTS, and President Trump signed a law on the defence budget, in which US
parliamentarians have written separate clauses concerning sanctions against companies
involved in the construction of the pipeline "Nord stream – 2″
If anyone has forgotten, allow me to remind you that Vladimir Putin has never talked about
the categorical refusal as regards the transit to Europe via the Ukraine of Russian gas.
Always, he has only stressed that it is a question exclusively of a commercial nature,
without any political overtones, and that such transit be carried out on favourable terms.
Vice-Premier of the Russian government Dmitry Kozak has said about the new contract to be
signed before the New Year that he parties had agreed on favourable terms. In addition to
this, the Ukrainian side said that "Gazprom" had agreed to pay "Naftogaz" $3 billion,
according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration. So, can the Ukraine celebrate a
"victory"?
So far, only Kiev has stated this figure of $3 billion. On the Russian side, there has
been no confirmation of this yet, but even if the Kiev figure is correct, I do not see much
reason to celebrate "victory", for if Russia has paid this money to the Ukraine ($2.6 billion
+ penalties), then the Ukraine is obliged to return $4.5 billion to Russia (3 billion
Eurobonds + penalties). The balance is not in favour of Kiev. In addition, the Ukraine has
pledged to stop all legal disputes on gas issues. Yes, in one case there is a dispute between
economic entities, and in a second case there is a dispute about sovereign debt. However,
since both Naftogaz and Gazprom are budget-forming state companies, to a certain extent this
difference in debt statuses is leveled.
Now on transit. There is no denying that for Russia it is not only important but necessary
to transit gas through the Ukraine at the moment, since under long-term contracts with
Europe, Gazprom is obliged to supply the volumes of gas stipulated in them, regardless of the
circumstances. Otherwise, the Russian company would have to pay heavy fines and penalties. By
concluding the contract, Gazprom has once again proved its reliability as a supplier, which,
by the way, was has already been emphasized by the European Commission following the
negotiations.
The only thing currently known about the transit contract is that it has been concluded
not for 10 years as Kiev had wanted, but for 5 years. Apparently, a longer term is not
relevant, chiefly because of complete uncertainty about the future of the Ukraine -- by the
way, in the next few days Kiev is likely to start an active struggle against the agreements
already reached, and if something threatens them at the moment, it is only Ukrainian
instability. According to data received from the Russian company, the volume of transit
through the Ukraine next year will be about 65 billion cubic metres. This is certainly a very
significant figure, but it is significantly less than the 90 billion cubic metres pumped
through the Ukrainian GTS in 2017. In 2021-2024, the annual transit volume will drop to 40
billion cubic metres. This volume allows the Ukrainian GTS to operate at a plus rather than a
minus, but Kiev will not receive any significant financial gain through it.
By the way, a certain demand for Ukrainian transit will remain after the Nord Stream-2 gas
pipeline has reached its design capacity, as European gas demand grows annually and a number
of fields operated in the EU countries are decommissioned in the coming years. As for NS-2
itself, by the time the sanctions are imposed, less than 50 kilometres will have been left on
one pipeline and about 70 kilometres on the other. Even if the Swiss company gathers up its
belongings, Russian pipe-laying ships will finish the job, and even though they lay pipes 3
times slower, they have absolute immunity from American sanctions. One of them is now located
in the area of Indonesia, and the second pipe-laying ship, "Fortuna", which, by the way, has
already participated in the implementation of "NS-2", is in a German port and is ready to
start working within a few days. [My stress! See that Finnish troll? -- ME]
So, by and large, the question is only one of time. But in any case "SP-2" will be
completed in terms of installation, testing and commissioning, and can be put into operation,
at most, at the end of the first half of 2020.
I really really doubt that the US military will attack overtly or covertly. The US already
announced that it will sanction other Russian energy projects if North Stream is placed in
operation.
I don't imagine that will be necessary. Be pretty hard to argue then that they were not
acting solely in their own interests, wouldn't it? It would make a hell of a thriller novel,
though – the pipeline is on the seabed, so any American efforts to tamper with it would
probably have to be from underwater. A submarine has no business being there, so its mission
would have to be super-secret and plausibly deniable. And in that scenario, if it simply
disappeared, the Americans would have to just proceed as if it never existed. There you go,
Karl; a great book idea, you should write it. But I want 20%; 30% if I have to proofread it
before publication to take out all the rhapsodizing about freedom and democracy, and rewrite
the ending where the Americans blow up the pipeline and miraculously escape, sailing home to
a ticker-tape parade and leaving Putin with angry tears running down his face.
Bulgaria is an instructive example here. Remember when it stopped South Stream in its
tracks, and was the hero of America and the EU? And Bulgaria strutted and swaggered, and was
pretty proud of itself while it waited for the rewards of its bravery. And then the USA built
them a Middle School or a new fence or something, I forget, and there were lots of 'well
done, old chap!' compliments, and and then that was it. Bulgaria did not become everyone's
preferred business partner and the destination of enormous foreign investment. And then,
gradually, everybody stopped talking about what a great and brave thing Bulgaria did, and it
just sort of sat there with its mouth half-open, trying to take in how skillfully it had been
creampied, and evidently all for nothing.
And eventually, Bulgaria repented, and went back to Russia and Putin, cap in hand. And
Russia received it warmly, like a brother who fell in with a bad crowd but was not really, at
heart, bad himself. It did not say that Bulgaria must prove itself by repudiating its former
friends. It seemed willing to let bygones be just that.
It is not even too much of a stretch to imagine that might one day be Ukraine as well,
although it certainly could not be under the current conditions. The nationalists would have
to be purged, hard. And there would have to be a completely new political administration. But
there's time, and lots of it. The west is not going to make a prosperous paradise of Ukraine,
it is only interested in stripping it of anything of value, and in the meantime it will go
down and down, because nobody wants to put any money into it. Except, ahem; Russia.
Party Poroshenko initiates sanctions against the supply of gas from Russia
The faction of "European solidarity" in the Ukrainian Parliament initiates sanctions
against the Russian gas supplies directly, reports RIA "Novosti".
As stated by the ex-President and leader of the faction of Petro Poroshenko, the
political force will require the convening of the national security Council on this issue,
and "implementation of sanctions" against the gas supplies from Russia
The people who elected Zelensky expected him to put Porky behind bars. But, surprise
surprise, Zel is a wimp who couldn't bring himself to buck his American overlords.
Said Overlords like Porky and want to keep him around, as the new leader of the Opps, with
hope he gets back into power some day.
Porky is the Ukrainian version of Saakashvili, there is simply no getting rid of him!
What if Germany, angered by American high-handedness, decided to move away from the US
dollar. Could that happen?
It could. Analysts caution that it would be unwise for Washington to laugh at efforts by
nations to make themselves less dependent on the dollar, because it also makes those nations
less susceptible to American sanctions. The world outside America is getting fed up with the
USA's sanctions-happy punishments, which have mushroomed from 5 targeted countries at the
start of the George W. Bush administration to 22 targeted countries at the end of 2018.
One of the ways Russia has hardened its economy against American tampering is in
increasing its use and accumulation of gold as a hedge, which is immune to 'freezing' by the
USA, so long as the gold is held in Russian vaults. That's the key, and momentum is slowly
gathering in other countries. Hungary repatriated all its gold from the Bank of England in
October of this year, and increased its holdings tenfold as well. Romania has submitted a
bill to parliament which mandates that only 5% of the country's gold can be stored abroad.
Currently about 60% of its 103 tonnes is stored at the Bank of England. In 2017 Germany
repatriated around $31 Billion worth of gold which had been stored in New York and Paris.
This week, Poland and Slovakia called for a return of their gold, which is being held by, you
guessed it, the Bank of England. The lesson of Venezuela's stolen gold was not lost on
anyone, and the less foreign gold the Bank of England has in its vaults, the less useful it
is to Washington and its 'freeze' orders.
Germany was chafing at US bullying back in 2018, and talking up policies to pull away from
the US dollar. Would this latest example of American meddling make them more, or less
inclined to pursue financial policies which did not include the United States as a partner,
do you think?
"According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, Nord Stream 2 would have to seek
alternative vessels and contractors to complete the remaining section of pipe in Danish
waters if the sanctions are enacted.
"While the most challenging parts of Nord Stream 2 have been laid in water depths of
around 200 meters, the remaining section in Danish waters at 90 meters depth remains
complicated," it said.
Russian companies operate capable offshore pipe-lay vessels, which have completed projects
in challenging Arctic conditions, including the MRTS Defender, which worked on the offshore
stretch of the Bovanenkovo-Ukhta pipeline.
Platts Analytics believes MRTS Fortuna could be used to complete Nord Stream 2, but is
capable of laying just 1 km/d.
A further obstacle, according to Platts Analytics, is that the Danish permit application
states that it is assumed that the vessels used to complete the Danish section will have
dynamic positioning capabilities (such as those of the Allseas vessels) which are not present
on MRTS Fortuna.
A Russian pipelaying vessel that already has dynamic positioning capabilities, Akademik
Cherskiy, could be used, but it would take up to two months to arrive to Danish waters as it
is currently stationed in Russia's Far East."
It is surprising that the Gazprom management didn't prepare for this situation! If this
article is correct the only Russian vessel that can be used to finish the project is
currently stationed in Vladivostok, and it will take about two months for it to arrive to
Danish waters.
The sanction threat has been looming for months, but it seems that Gazprom did not prepare
for it in any meaningful way.
I would be pleasantly surprised if this project is finished in 2020.
Karl, this is no attitude for the Christmas season – don't be so dour and pessimistic.
It takes two years to build a specialized ship, at a minimum, and that's just a regular
design like an LNG tanker – should Gazprom have built two or three, only to have the
Americans laugh and not impose sanctions? Then you would have chuckled ruefully over how
foolish Gazprom was to waste its money; there's no pleasing you. Only two days ago you were
moaning over how the entirety of the funds spent so far would be wasted; the pipeline could
not be completed, America is just too strong. You can go back and look. Now it looks as if it
can be completed, just the remainder will be done at about a third the speed it could have
been. But the money which would have gone to Allseas will be saved, and really there's no
hurry now; they have 5 years if they need it. In 2 months the worst of the winter weather
should be over, and any further slowdowns between now and completion can be blamed on the
Americans, whose fault of course it is. It would have been done now but for American pressure
on Denmark to hold out.
I wouldn't say it couldn't have turned out better, but all things considered the results
are not that bad for Russia and not very good for the USA, which has incurred a lot of
resentment and ill-will in exchange for really nothing. It is not going to stop the pipeline
from completing, but it has made a lot of enemies, and even the Poles have stopped yapping
and do not appear to be celebrating too loudly, lest they anger other Europeans.
""While the most challenging parts of Nord Stream 2 have been laid in water depths of around
200 meters, the remaining section in Danish waters at 90 meters depth remains complicated,"
it said."
Norwegian divers welded pipelines at 900 meters depth (And, yes they had some
problems).
Let me guess – the United States has threatened to confiscate the assets in the USA of
any company which sells dynamic-positioning systems to the Soviets (oops! I mean the
Russians!), and so now they will have to develop the technology themselves. Why not just
threaten to slap sanctions on anyone giving 'aid and comfort' to the Russians? I mean,
they're the enemy, right? Right?? So nobody sell them boots or warm clothes, or anything. See
how they like laying pipe in their skivvies, barefoot.
Say, I'll bet that attitude is good for market share for the remaining American businesses
still operating in Russia. And speaking of that, here's another example – gosh, there
are so many – of America's love affair with sanctions; CAATSA, the Countering America's
Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. According to an analyst at the Foreign Policy Research
Institute,
it's a failure , because it did not prevent Turkey from buying the S-400 system from
Russia when they were supposed to buy the Patriot from the USA, or
prevent Egypt from buying the Sukhoi S-35 from Russia when they were meant to buy the
F-35. Oh, but they were frustrated in that because Israel did not want them to have it.
Washington never misses an opportunity to show Israel it still loves it despite all the
actions Israel makes it take against its own best interests.
"Egypt turned to Moscow for the Su-35 aircraft after being frustrated in repeated
attempts to get a foothold in the F-35 program, a move closely watched in Israel, which
remains the only country in the region to receive the fifth-generation aircraft."
America threatened Egypt with – you guessed it – sanctions if it continued
with plans to buy Russian fighters worth $2 Billion in sales, but Egypt basically ignored
them, only not laughing because it would be impolite to laugh.
"The Egyptian leadership views the US threats as not credible, based on a long history
of Egyptian/US relations where the US has made threats and even withheld assistance, but in
the end has always capitulated," said Andrew Miller, who was director for Egypt and Israel
military issues in the Obama administration's National Security Council."
Egypt also bought the two MISTRAL class light assault carriers that Washington made France
cancel the sale of when Russia had already paid a security deposit, which had to be returned.
Egypt quickly purchased helicopters from Russia to outfit its new ships.
In fact, America seems to be losing its grip on the Middle East and Africa. And its
newly-discovered and somewhat childlike faith in sanctions as a cure-all is ruining its
traditional alliances and eroding its global reach. Much less-powerful countries now
routinely ignore its threats to impose sanctions and more sanctions. The fewer foreign
businesses interested in locating significant assets in the United States – so as to
prevent their being seized in a fit of pique – the less influence Washington can bring
to bear through sanctions. Its most loyal toady, the UK, will soon no longer be a part of the
EU, while nations jostle one another in eagerness to get their gold back from the Bank of
England where the United States cannot slap a 'hold' order on it through its devoted
proxies.
Russian dolts just don't have the technology, isn't that right ?
From the Finnish naysayer:
In retrospect the biggest mistake Russia did was to start the Nord Stream 2 project
without possessing the technology to complete the project and relying on the Western
technology. This made Nord Stream 2 and Russia vulnerable for the sanctions and this
vulnerability was exploited.
Will Russia learn and not start any major project in the future without having the
means to complete the project itself without relying on the West? I doubt it.
As mentioned earlier, commercial contracts normally include provisions for frustration
– supervening illegality can prevent performance of obligations contracted under
different circumstances and no one would expect a company to commit suicide. It's just a
business problem. But a business problem which, as Mark states, leaves the instigator –
the USA – diminished by its own actions.
Every contract has Force Majeure provisions to address factors beyond the control of the
supplier. The list includes of acts of God (weather, for example), civil unrest, labor
disputes, etc. "US sanctions" need to be added.
According to ME they were within 50 kilometers of landfall. According to Karl the replacement
vessel can lay pipe at a 1km/day rate. The resulting calculation isn't rocket science
mathematics. Ribbons will be cut and valves will be turned on in a few months to the clink of
vodka and champagne glasses.
Peskov did not say a fuckin' thing about "hope" that the pipeline will be completed. He
stated that the sanctions will NOT work to bring about substantial delay.
Two pipelines are being laid in parallel. One line , if I rightly recall, has 50 kms left to
be laid, the other 75 kms. The Russian pipelayers, again if I rightly recall, lay at one
third of the speed as did the Allseas vessel. The Russians are also aware of the
geopositioning requirement that the Danes may impose. Only one Russian pipelayer, the one at
present in the Far East, has this capability. from here
"Pioneering Spirit" and" Solitaire" crossed the border of Swedish and Danish waters on
27 and 28 November, respectively, since which time the former has covered 89 km, the latter
-- a little less than 70 km, i.e. they move at a speed of 3.5–4.5 km per day. This
means that they should be able to complete the construction within a month. But maintaining
this momentum depends on the weather conditions.
There was only 1 month's worth of laying left when Allseas fucked off.
The Russians are seemingly, from the troll's point of view, faced with such insurmountable
odds that he is coming in his pants. They'll never finish the job.
Like when they said they would never finish that bridge, across the petersburg-Simferopol
train crosses for the first time this coming Christmas Day?
From same source as above, namely Moskovskiy Komsomolets :
According to a representative of one of the contractors involved in the creation of the
offshore section of "Nord Stream – 2", Gazprom began to insure against sanctions
against companies involved in laying the pipeline in October. The Fortuna pipe-laying barge,
built in 2010 at a Russian shipyard and later upgraded at Chinese shipyards, has been used.
This vessel has been based for about two months in the German port of Mukran, where the pipes
required for the gas pipeline construction are shipped.
According to an MK interlocutor who wished to remain anonymous, despite the fact that
Fortuna is the most powerful domestic vessel in its class, it is unlikely that it can fully
replace Allseas pipelayers. "Fortuna" is able to do such works, but the speed of the project
will be slowed down. "Fortuna specializes in laying infield and linear pipelines on land,
while Gazprom charters vessels with foreign registration for offshore sections.
At the same time, Fortuna has experience working in deep water areas. As part of the
Sakhalin-3 project, the barge was deploying an underwater production facility in the
Kirinskoye field at a depth of 100 meters. The depth of the sea in the Danish section of the
NS-2, which remains to be completed by Gazprom, does not exceed this mark, while Fortuna has
a depth limit of 200 meters", explains the MK interlocutor.
Yeah, according to the Troll:
it is surprising that the Gazprom management didn't prepare for this situation! If this
article is correct the only Russian vessel that can be used to finish the project is
currently stationed in Vladivostok, and it will take about two months for it to arrive to
Danish waters.
The sanction threat has been looming for months, but it seems that Gazprom did not
prepare for it in any meaningful way.
I would be pleasantly surprised if this project is finished in 2020.
For "pleasantly surprised" above, read: "bitterly disappointed".
The United States is less concerned with matters green. Nord Stream 2 poses a security
threat.
Trump's former secretary of state, Rex Tillerson,
saw it as "undermining Europe's overall energy security and stability."
US energy secretary Rick Perry
argues that "Russian gas has strings attached." The claim is that Germany will be come too
reliant and Ukraine further weakened. Ukraine had been the premier gatekeeper for Russian gas
supply, with 40 percent of Europe's total amount transiting through Ukrainian soil. A
slump in gross domestic product occasioned by an end to transit fees is considered
imminent.
Other European states have been crankily concerned about the prospect of Gazprom's deepening
involvement in the continent's energy market. Poland's anti-monopoly body UOKiK showed a
measure of that opposition
by fining France's Engie Energy (ENGIE.PA) 40 million euros in proceedings against
Gazprom.
In February, EU ambassadors agreed that the project be subjected to greater scrutiny. A
Franco-German compromise was struck : Nord Stream 2 would be placed
"under European control".
The Trump administration's actions against Gazprom and Russia's energy influence, found in a
provision of the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), can hardly be seen as noble
endeavours.
The provision threatens
sanctions and the freezing of assets against entities laying down the pipeline unless their
activities cease "immediately". The United States has its own energy interests in Europe, and
wishes to frustrate the effort. Market share is at stake.
The suspension of laying activities on the part of Allseas, a Swiss company, suggests that
Trump's announcement is already biting.
"In anticipation of the enactment of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA),"
went a
company statement , "Allseas has suspended its Nord Stream 2 pipelay activities." The
company would "proceed, consistent with the legislation's wind down provision and expect
guidance comprising the necessary regulatory, technical and environmental clarifications from
the relevant US authority."
The angle taken by the European Union, Germany and Russia can hardly surprise. Themes of
energy security are reiterated. The Nord Stream 2 consortium makes the claim that, "Completing the
project is essential for European supply security." Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman
Maria Zakharova spikily condemned the
sanctions measure. "A state with a $22 trillion national debt prohibits creditworthy countries
to develop the real sector of their economies!"
For a EU spokesman, this
constituted "the imposition of sanctions against EU companies conducting legitimate
business." A German government spokesman suggested that such actions "affect German and other
European businesses, and we see the move as meddling in our internal affairs." Finance Minister
Olaf Scholz has sees
it as an infringement of sovereignty. "It is up to the companies involved in the
construction of the pipeline to take the next decisions."
Nothing is quite so simple. Gas pipeline politics has always been contentious. One state's
sovereign promise is another's weakening. Concessions made to corporate monopolies are risky,
capable of fostering insecurity as much as reassurance. Those who control the tap control a
country's future.
But the imposition of any sanctions regime signals another bout of economic violence. In
the international market, where governments operate as ready gangsters for corporate interests,
prompted by such motivations as seeking more natural resources, tools of state become
handmaidens of economic self-interest...
Trump is expected to sign into law the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) 2020
which mandates the imposition of sanctions on companies involved in Nord Stream II's
construction, but while this crafty move isn't expected to seriously impede the project since
it's already in its final stages, its importance derives in the fact that it signals extremely
strong support for the interests of the US-backed "Three Seas Initiative" whose Polish leader
has objected to this game-changing pipeline on geopolitical grounds.
***
The US Senate's
approval of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) 2020 means that Trump will likely
sign it into law very soon, which is troublesome for Trans-Atlantic relations because it
mandates among its many sometimes unrelated provisions the imposition of sanctions on companies
involved in Nord Stream II's construction. This crafty move isn't expected to seriously impede
the project since it's already in its final stages after Russia
secured Denmark's permission back in October to construct a crucial segment of this
pipeline through its maritime territory, which will facilitate the project's completion and
thus strengthen Russia's strategic partnership with EU-leader Germany. That outcome will likely
accelerate the ongoing rapprochement between Russia and the bloc's Western European members
that became obvious to all after Macron's successful visit
to Moscow in late August, but which is in turn compelling the US to double down on its
commitment to the Polish-led " Three
Seas Initiative " (TSI) that it envisages functioning as its wedge for retaining influence
in the strategic Central European space between those two.
The impending NDAA 2020-connected sanctions should therefore be seen as an extremely strong
signal of support for this trans-regional integration structure because they satisfy the
demands of its Polish leader for the US to impose costs upon Germany for its reinvigorated
strategic partnership with Russia. Barely reported on at the time, it's significant to mention
that a bipartisan
resolution was submitted to the House of Representatives at the end of October shortly
after Russia secured Denmark's support for Nord Stream II mandating that Congress prioritize
its support for the TSI in the aftermath of that development, with a specific focus on energy
and physical connectivity projects. The grand strategic goal that the US is aiming to achieve
is to create a so-called "cordon sanitaire" that would serve to divide Russia from Western
Europe by exploiting the preexisting animosity that the many states between them have towards
Moscow, and it will likely end up being one of the main drivers of American foreign policy
towards the continent for the foreseeable future.
In pursuit of that objective, the US is also making strategic outreaches to
Belarus , knowing very well that its wily leader Lukashenko is more than willing to
"balance" between the West and Russia in a risky attempt to extract more (mostly economic)
"concessions" from each of them. It goes without saying that this policy will probably ramp up
now that Nord Stream II is a fait accompli and the "cordon sanitaire" is more significant than
ever in the current context. That former Soviet Republic, however, is unlikely to engage in a
decisive "pivot" against Russia, though from a zero-sum standpoint, the gradual moves that it's
making towards the West can indeed be interpreted as being "mildly" against Russia's long-term
interests. Still, there isn't much that Russia can do since it must avoid the perception that
it's putting overwhelming pressure on Belarus or even plausibly considering doing so since that
notion would only accelerate the very same trend that Moscow wants to reverse. Minsk, it must
be said, recognizes how geostrategic its position is for both the Russian-led Eurasian Union
(EAU) and the Polish-led TSI, so it'll try to play them off against the other, all with the US'
passive support.
The US isn't the only Great Power spreading its influence through the TSI, as China is also
rapidly on the ascent there too. The Balkans are becoming more important of a destination for
Chinese foreign direct investment than ever through the Belt & Road
Initiative (BRI), most visibly manifesting itself in Beijing's plans to construct a
high-speed railway from the Hungarian capital of Budapest to the Greek port of Pireaus (the
"Balkan Silk Road"). It also holds yearly meetings with the leaders of the TSI countries and
others in this region through the 17+1
format that was recently expanded to include Greece (having been the 16+1 previously). In
addition, Belarus is a key node on the Eurasian Land Bridge, with China investing in the "
Great Stone " industrial
park that it envisages becoming a major export center along that route. None of this is to
imply whatsoever that China is "teaming up" with the US to "contain" Russia in Central &
Eastern Europe, but just to point out that China's infrastructure investments will greatly help
to connect the region along the north-south axis, after which the US will likely exploit these
apolitical and purely economic projects for its strategic ends vis-a-vis Russia.
Even so, while the TSI space is certainly geostrategic, its economic importance pales in
comparison to Western Europe's. The German economy alone is larger than all of those states'
combined, so Russia isn't exactly losing out in the economic sense as a result of the US' TSI
plans. It is, however, at risk of this "cordon sanitaire" being used as its rival's
trans-regional platform for putting military pressure upon it, which has already been happening
ever since most of its states joined NATO and then doubled down on their commitment to it after
the onset of the New
Cold War in 2014 following Crimea's reunification with Russia in response to the US-backed
coup in Ukraine. Poland and increasingly Greece
bookend this pro-American military structure, while Ukraine and possibly soon even Belarus
could ultimately become its eastern-most appendages by proxy. Russia still has instruments of
influence that it can leverage in an attempt to keep this trend under control, though it's
seemingly on the defensive in recent years and appears unable to gain any successes on this
front, instead choosing to concentrate on Western Europe through Nord Stream II and other
measures.
Looking forward, the rise of the TSI as the US' preferred continental proxy is all but
assured, though it's unclear whether or not it'll succeed with its fundamental purpose of
keeping Russia and Western Europe apart. Classical geopolitical thought suggesting that it
would doesn't take into consideration the much more complex nature of contemporary
International Relations whereby a conventional military clash between the TSI states and Russia
is unlikely for reasons of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) stemming from many of the
former's memberships in NATO, and their other memberships in the EU mean that a successful
EU-Russian detente would force them to facilitate trade between Western Europe and Russia if
even a single state vetoes the continuation of sanctions in the future. Altogether, it can
therefore be said that Russia's successful completion of Nord Stream II would flip the
strategic dynamics by once again returning Moscow to a position of strength whereas Washington
would then be the Great Power on the defensive instead. Still, the TSI's potential shouldn't be
underestimated either since it might lead to some surprises for both Western Europe and Russia
if its American patron has a few tricks up its sleeve that it's wiling to teach its regional
partners.
"... Are the security forces loyal to him to the extent that he could realistically counted on them to carry out a crackdown on
the "Nazis"? ..."
"... I am sympathetic to a lot of what Putin has felt it necessary to do, but I must say, I don't buy the incessant use of the term
"Ukronazi." Sounds propagandistic. ..."
"... What about the Ukrainian people? A large majority of them voted for some sort of reconciliation with the separatists and Russia.
They did so twice: once for Zelenskii, and once again for his party. Does that count for nothing? ..."
"... I think the plan is to wait until Russia collapses from Western sanctions, and then invade Crimea and Donbass. They didn't
give up on the territory by any means, which is why I don't think that any ceasefire in Donbass will hold. It is going to remain a slow-burning
conflict, the regime will continue to complain about "Russian invasion" and international investors will continue to avoid the Ukraine.
..."
The recent Paris summit and the few days following the summit have brought a lot of clarity about the future of the Minsk Agreements.
Short version: Kiev has officially rejected them (by rejecting both the sequence of steps and several crucial steps). For those interested,
let's look a little further.
First, what just happened
First, here are the key excerpts from the Paris Conference and from statements made by "Ze" and his superior, Arsen Avakov right
after their return to Kiev:
The Minsk agreements (Minsk Protocol of 5 September 2014, Minsk Memorandum of 19 September 2014 and the Minsk Package of Measures
of 12 February 2015) continue to be the basis of the work of the Normandy format whose member states are committed to their
full implementation ( ) The sides express interest in agreeing within the Normandy format (N4) and the Trilateral Contact
Group on all the legal aspects of the Special Order of Local Self-Government – special status – of Certain Areas of the Donetsk
and Luhansk Regions – as outlined in the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements from 2015 – in order
to ensure its functioning on a permanent basis .They consider it necessary to incorporate the "Steinmeier formula" into the Ukrainian
legislation, in accordance with the version agreed upon within the N4 and the Trilateral Contact Group.
President 'Ze' statement on Ukrainian TV: (unofficial, in-house, translation) source
" The most difficult question is the question of the transfer of the border control to Ukraine. It's very funny, because
its our border and the transfer of the control to us. But, it's a weak sport, the Achilles' heel of the Minsk Agreement." "It's
what was signed by us, unfortunately. We can discuss this for a very long time. Possibly, the conditions were as such." "But we
signed that we will get the control over our border only after the elections on the temporarily occupied territories." "We dedicated
a very long time to this question, we discussed it in details, we have a very different positions with the president of
Russia ." "But this is the Minsk position, we have to understand this. I only like one thing, that we started talking about
this. We agreed that we will continue talking about this in details and with the different variations during our next meeting."
"This is also a victory, because we will have a meeting in four months."
Q. What do you think, is it possible to change the Minsk Agreement? source
" This will be very difficult to do, but we have to do it. We have to change it . First, we have to understand
that it's been over four years since the Minsk Agreement was signed. Everything changes in our life. We have to understand that
it wasn't my team that signed the Minsk Agreement, but we as a power have to fulfill the conditions that our power at the time
agreed back then. But? I am sure that some things we will be able to change. We will be changing them." "Because the transfer
of the Ukraine's border after our control only after the elections, – it's not our position. I said about this don't know how
many times, but this is the final decision ."
Arsen Avakov's statement on Ukrainian TV: (unofficial, in-house, translation):
" The philosophy of the border control the part of the border that we don't have control over is 408 kilometers. It's not that
easy to take it over, to equip it, even to get there across the enemy territories. It's a procedure. As a compromise, we offered
the following scheme: we will start taking the border under our control stating with the New Year, little by little, reducing the
length of the border that is not controlled by us, and a day before the local election we will close the border, we will close this
bottleneck. And this way will get the control over the border. Why isn't this a good compromise? Considering, that at the same time
according to the Steinmeier Formula, they have to disarm all the illegal armed formations of this pseudo-state DNR. This is how we
see the compromise."
In other words, both the official President and real President of the Ukraine agree: the Ukraine will not implement the Minsk
Agreements as written, made law by the UNSC and clarified by the so-called Steinmeier Formula.
Ukrainian propagandists on Russian TV (yes, Urkonazi and hardline nationalist propagandists do get air time on Russian TV on a
daily basis – for an explanation why, see here and here ) went into damage
control mode and explained it all away by saying " these are only words, what matters is what Zelenskii signed in Paris ".
They are wrong. First of all, statements made in their official capacity by the President or the Minister of Internal Affairs do
represent OFFICIAL policy statements. Second, this explanation completely overlooks the reason why Ze and Avakov said these things.
That reason is very simple: Ze caved in to the Urkonazis, completely. He now uses EXACTLY the same rhetoric as Poroshenko did, in
spite of the fact that the only reason he was elected is that he presented himself as the ultimate anti-Poroshenko. Now all we see
is Poroshenko 2.0.
So in the behind-the-scenes (but very real) struggle between the Zionist camp (Kolomoiskii and Zelenskii) and the Urkonazi camp
(Avakov and Poroshenko), the latter have successfully taken control of the former and now the chances for saving a unitary Ukraine
are down to, maybe not quite zero, but to something like 0.0000001% (I leave that one under the heading "never say never" and because
I have been wrong in the past).
So what happens next?
That is the interesting question. In theory, the Normandy Four will meet again in 4 months. But that assumes that some progress
was made. Well, it is possible that in a few sections of the line of contact there will be an OSCE supervised withdrawal of forces.
But, let's be honest here, the people have seen many, many such promised withdrawals, and they all turned out to be fake. Either
the Ukronazis return to the neutral zone (claiming huge victories over the (sic) "Russian armed force"), or they resume bombing civilians,
or they never even bother to change position. Any withdrawal is a good thing if it can save a single life! But no amount of withdrawals
will settle anything in this conflict.
Second, there are A LOT of Ukrainian politicians who now say that the citizens of the LDNR have to "return" to Russia if they
don't like the Urkonazi coup or its ideology. They either don't realize, or don't care, that there are very few Russian volunteers
in Novorussia and that the vast majority of the men and women who compose the LDNR forces are locals. These locals, by the way, get
the Ukie message loud and clear: you better get away while you can, because when we show up you will all be prosecuted for terrorism
and aiding terrorists, that is ALSO something the Urkonazis like to repeat day after day. By the way, while in Banderastan all Russian
TV channels are censored, and while they also try to censor the Russian language Internet, in Novorussia all the Ukrainian (and Russian)
TV stations are freely available. So as soon as some Nazi freak comes out and says something crazy like "we will create filtration
camps" (aka concentration camps) this news is instantly repeated all over Novorussia, which only strengthens the resolve of the people
of the LDNR to fight to their death rather than accept a Nazi occupation..
I said it many times, Zelenskii's ONLY chance was to crackdown on the Nazis as soon as he was elected. He either did not have
the courage to do so, or his U.S. bosses told him to leave them unmolested. Whatever the case may be, it's now over, we are back
to square one.
The most likely scenario is a "slow freezing" of the conflict meaning now that Kiev has officially and overtly rejected the Minsk
Agreements, there will be some minor, pretend-negotiations, maybe, but that fundamentally the conflict will be frozen.
That will be the last nail in the coffin of the pro-EU, pro-NATO so-called "Independent Ukraine", since the most important condition
to try to salvage the Ukrainian economy, namely peace, is now gone. Furthermore, the political climate in the Ukraine will further
deteriorate (the hated Nazi minority + an even worse economic crisis are a perfect recipe for disaster).
For the Novorussians, it's now clear: the rump-Ukraine* does not want them, nor will Kiev ever agree to the Minsk Agreement. That
means that the LDNR will separate from the rump-Ukraine and, on time, rejoin Russia. Good bye Banderites and Urkonazis!
The rump-Ukraine will eventually break-up further: Crimea truly was the "jewel of the Black Sea" and its future appears to be
extremely bright while the Donbass was the biggest source of raw materials, energy, industry, high-tech, etc. etc. etc.). What is
left of the Ukraine is either poor and under-developed (the West) or needs to reopen economic ties with Russia (the South).
Besides, Zelenskii and his party are now trying to rush a new law through the Rada which will allow the sale of Ukrainian land
to private interests (aka foreign interests + a local frontman). As a result, there is now a new "maidan" brewing, pitting Iulia
Timoshenko and other nationalist leaders against Zelenskii and his party. This could become a major crisis very fast, especially
now that is appears that Zelenskii will also renege on this promise to call for a national referendum on the issue of the sale/privatization
of land .
As for the Russians, they already realize that Ze is a joke, unsurprisingly so since he is a comic by trade, and that the Ukrainians
are "not agreement capable". They will treat him like they did Poroshenko in the last years: completely ignore him and not even take
his telephone calls. Right now, there is just a tiny bit of good will left in Moscow, but it is drying up so fast that it will soon
totally disappear. Besides, the Russians really don't care that much anymore: the sanctions turned out to be a blessing, time is
on Russia's side, the Ukronazis are destroying their own state and, finally, the important stuff for Russia is happening in Asia,
not the West.
The Europeans will take a long time to come to terms with two simple facts:
Russia was never a party to this conflict (if she had, it would have been over long ago). The Ukronazis are the ones who won't implement
the Minsk Agreements
This means that the politicians who were behind the EU's backing of the Euromaidan (Merkel) will have to go before their successors
can say that, oops, we got our colors confused, and white is actually black and black turned out to be white. That's okay, politicians
are pretty good at that. The honeymoon between Kiev and Warsaw on the one hand and Berlin on the other will soon end as bad times
are ahead.
Macron looks much better, and he will probably pursue his efforts to restore semi-normal relations with Russia, for France's sake
first, but also eventually the rest of the EU. The Poles and the Balts will accuse him of "treason" and he will just ignore them.
As for Trump, he will most likely make small steps towards Russia, but most of his energy will be directed either inwards (impeachment)
or outwards (Israel), but not towards the Ukrainian conflict. Good.
Conclusion
It's over. Crimea and the Donbass are gone forever, the first is de jure , the latter merely de facto . The rump-Ukraine
is completely unconformable (barring some kind of coup followed by a government of national unity supported Moscow – I consider this
hypothesis as highly unlikely).
If you live in the West, don't expect your national media to report on any of this. They will be the LAST ones to actually admit
it (journos have a longer shelf life than politicians, it is harder for them to make a 180).
PS: to get a feeling for the kind of silly stunts the "Ze team" is now busying itself with, just check this one: they actually
tried to falsify the Ukrainian version of the Paris Communique. For details, see Scott's report here: https://thesaker.is/kiev-attempted-to-change-the-letter-and-meaning-of-paris-summit-communique/
. If the Ukraine was a Kindergarten, then "Ze" would be a perfect classroom teacher or visiting entertainer. But for a country
fighting for its survival, such stunts are a very, very bad sign indeed!
(*rump-Ukraine: In broad terms, a "rump" state is what remains of a state when a portion is carved away. Expanding on the "butcher"
metaphor, the rump is what is left when the higher-value cuts such as rib roast and loin have been removed.)
I said it many times, Zelenskii's ONLY chance was to crackdown on the Nazis as soon as he was elected. He either did not
have the courage to do so, or his U.S. bosses told him to leave them unmolested.
Are the security forces loyal to him to the extent that he could realistically counted on them to carry out a crackdown
on the "Nazis"?
For the Novorussians, it's now clear: the rump-Ukraine* does not want them, nor will Kiev ever agree to the Minsk Agreement.
So what is the Ukrainian thinking here -- that they are better off simply cutting bait on the east and letting Russia deal
with the headache of the Donbass's antiquated infrastructure? And that a truncated Ukraine would at least be mostly free of internal
pro-Russian sentiment?
I am sympathetic to a lot of what Putin has felt it necessary to do, but I must say, I don't buy the incessant use of the
term "Ukronazi." Sounds propagandistic.
What about the Ukrainian people? A large majority of them voted for some sort of reconciliation with the separatists and Russia.
They did so twice: once for Zelenskii, and once again for his party. Does that count for nothing?
I think the plan is to wait until Russia collapses from Western sanctions, and then invade Crimea and Donbass. They didn't
give up on the territory by any means, which is why I don't think that any ceasefire in Donbass will hold. It is going to remain
a slow-burning conflict, the regime will continue to complain about "Russian invasion" and international investors will continue
to avoid the Ukraine.
"That reason is very simple: Ze caved in to the Ukronazis, completely. He now uses EXACTLY the same rhetoric as Poroshenko did,
in spite of the fact that the only reason he was elected is that he presented himself as the ultimate anti-Poroshenko. Now all
we see is Poroshenko 2.0."
This is interesting. It implies z actually meant what he said in order to gain votes to get elected. In fact, he is very similar
to trump in this respect. Lied about desiring an end to the conflict (conflicts in the case of trump), but once in office continued
the aggressive policies (and expanded them in the case of trump). Actually, if one considers poroshenko as the ukraine version
of obama/clinton and zelinsky as trump, it looks like the ukrainian regime is following in the footsteps of the american regime.
It's not just Minsk that has been abandoned by the Kiev junta. Kiev itself has been abandoned by the EU, which now looks to Nordstream-2
for its energy supplies from Russia, thus bypassing the thieves in Ukraine. Even sanctions from the Supreme Sanctioner in DC is
not going to persuade the Germans to shiver in the winter.
"Nord Stream 2: Trump approves sanctions on Russia gas pipeline"
The Russians will probably finish that last segment themselves but the German reaction
will be the one to watch out for – if there is one. Without Nord Stream 2, Germany will
have to accept having a smaller economy because of insufficient energy to power it which will
have knock-on effects in taxation, revenue raising & allocation, etc.
This will make them less competitive against the US and other economies and if they are
forced to buy US gas shipments, it will play hell with their budget due to the excessive
cost. Having a US Ambassador that thinks of himself as a Proconsul of Germany has not
lessened any tensions either. So we will see if there is any German reaction.
When Russia finishes the pipeline, which is not really sure since the swiss special ships
might finish in time or might be actually needed to finish the pipeline, then why would a
reaction from Germany be needed?
If/when the pipeline is done, Germany will take the gas from it for e.g. its chemical
industry. From what I understand, the US hasn't sanctioned users of russian gas in general,
"only" companies who actively build on the pipeline, like the owner of the special ships
used.
If the US however doubles down and sanctions users of russian pipeline gas, then it will
probably have a big fight on its hand. Then not only Germany is affected but almost all EU
countries, except Poland and the Baltics of course.
Frankly, I just don't get the logic behind this move by Trump. Is he saying that he thinks
that Germany is a colony of the US and that the US gets to determine where they get their
resources? That is pretty high-handed, even for the US.
I think that's exactly what these sanctions are about. "The US considers the project a
security risk to Europe" certainly sounds colonialist, and "The Trump administration fears
the pipeline will tighten Russia's grip over Europe's energy supply and reduce its own share
of the lucrative European market for American liquefied natural gas" sounds like the USA
wants to tell Europe what to buy and where.
I'm not sure about pinning it all on Trump though: " Congress voted through the
measures as part of a defence bill last week and the legislation, which described the
pipeline as a "tool of coercion", was signed off by Mr Trump on Friday."
(Quotes from the BBC article)
Why have NATO. Do you need a military against a country that you buy gas from. You give
them enormous amounts of money and they can shut the switch at any time. Maybe we should
bring Russia into NATO to defend against aliens.
Russia asked to join NATO, but were rejected. NATO needs a bogey man enemy to justify
forcing all its members to spend 2% of GDP on US military equipment. The first thing American
arms salespersons did when the Berlin Wall fell was to head to Eastern Europe to sell
arms.
It might be high-handed, but it's not new. Variations of this game have gone on since the
80s, when the first gas exports from Russia were starting. This is an upswing in aggression,
but it's mostly a continuation of standard US policy.
I am not even sure that the increased aggression comes from Trump. It's more that gas
producers in the US are now more powerful than a decade ago (and somewhat desperate due to
low gas prices in the US), so their interests add to the old-school geopolitics.
Well Germany and EU are sure behaving as if they are colonies. Zero fight for what is good
for EU. Think Russia sanctions. Hurt only EU, not US and a little bit Russia, which now have
moved to produce themselves the stuff EU was selling to Russia. EU has screwed itself on the
long-term by order from the US. US is not Europe's friend, but is making sure that it gets
weaker and cannot offer an alternative, economical, social or military.
If you want to amuse yourself you can see the ships here :
They appear to be returning to port. Were last working just to the SSE of Bornholm (the
Danish island).
Here is a gazprom map of the route as of Oct .
Most of the remaining route, the segment in German EEZ waters going in the southwest directon
from Bornholm, is shallow water.
I keep wondering when Europe will decide to throw off the shackles. A complicating factor
may be history: they'd rather an American master, mostly far away, than a German one.
Didn't we interfere with Japanese oil supplies once? For large values of happy, I can say
I'm happy with synopsizing the result of World War 2 as being about 'Who had the most oil?' I
feel like we are now vaporizing so many kinds of capital to maintain energy dominance. Can
the US please stop fighting WWII sometime before WWIII
The new US defense bill, agreed on by both parties, includes sanctions on executives of companies involved in the completion
of Nordstream 2. This is companies involved in laying the remaining pipe, and also companies involved in the infrastructure around
the arrival point.
This could include arrest of the executives of those companies, who might travel to the United States. One of the companies
is Royal Dutch Shell, who have 80,000 employees in the United States.
Some people believe 'the market' for crude oil is a fair and effective arbiter of the industry supply and demand.
But if we step back an inch or two, we all can see it has been a severely broken mechanism during this up phase in oil.
For example, there has been long lags between market signals of shortage or surplus.
Disruptive policies and mechanisms such as tariffs, embargo's, and sanctions, trade bloc quotas, military coups and popular revolutions,
socialist agendas, industry lobbying, multinational corporate McCarthyism, and massively obese debt financing, are all examples
of forces that have trumped an efficient and transparent oil market.
And yet, the problems with the oil market during this time of upslope will look placid in retrospect, as we enter the time beyond
peak.
I see no reason why it won't turn into a mad chaotic scramble.
We had a small hint of what this can look like in the last mid-century. The USA responded to military expansionism of Japan by
enacting an oil embargo against them. The response was Pearl Harbor. This is just one example of many.
How long before Iran lashes out in response to their restricted access to the market?
People generally don't respond very calmly to involuntary restriction on food, or energy, or access to the markets for these things.
President Trump is expected to sign legislation into law
AllSeas Group SA
said it would halt operations on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany on
expectations the U.S. Congress will pass legislation to sanction companies working on the
project, which critics say will bind Europe more tightly to Moscow.
The contractor said in a two-line statement it would suspend work "in anticipation of the
enactment of the National Defense Authorization Act."
... ... ...
Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz, the main Senate sponsor of the sanctions,
wrote a letter with Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson to AllSeas Chief Executive Officer Edward
Heerema Wednesday warning the company that it would face "crushing and potentially fatal"
sanctions if it continued work on the pipeline.
"The consequences of your company continuing to do the work -- for even a single day after
the President signs the sanctions legislation -- would expose your company to crushing and
potentially fatal legal and economic sanctions," they wrote.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Moscow planned to keep gas transit
via Ukraine irrespective of a number of gas pipelines Moscow currently builds to bypass its
ex-Soviet neighbor.
...
"This is a very difficult, sensitive topic. We would like to solve this problem," Putin said
at his annual press conference in Moscow.
"We will look for a solution that is acceptable for all parties, including Ukraine. That's
despite the construction of infrastructure such as Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2, TurkStream.
We will preserve gas transit through Ukraine."
...
Putin said on Thursday that Russia would be ready to give Ukraine a discount of 20-25% for
gas purchases. "I am confident we will reach an agreement ... We have no desire to exacerbate
the situation ... or use this to influence the situation in Ukraine itself."
...
This gives Ukraine three options:
keep buying Russian gas from Europe
swallow their pride and buy discounted gas direct from Russia
Yes it was corrupt before the violent coup, but at least people could live nicely and be
warm during winter. People have frozen during the winters since and many of them had to go
back to work because of the damn IMF loans that hurt big time.
Congress said that they had to put sanctions on Nordstream because of Russia aggression.
One article listed all of the aggressions they have done.
Invaded Iraq.
Supported the Honduran coup.
Invaded Libya
Invaded Syria....well you get the drift. Sorta like how Iran has destabilized the Middle East
as pompous Pompeo is saying. It's the effing hypocrisy!
The anti-Russian insanity that dominates the politics of America is dangerous, stupid and
detached from facts. Two news items from Wednesday (December 18th) should scare the hell out of
you.
The first concerns Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which is nearing completion
and will deliver gas to Europe.
According to Reuters :
The U.S. Senate on Tuesday passed legislation to slap sanctions on companies building a
massive underwater pipeline to bring Russian natural gas to Germany, but it was uncertain
whether the measures would slow completion of the project.
Senator Jim Risch, a Republican and the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
said the sanctions will prevent the project's completion and are an "important tool to counter
Russia's malign influence and to protect the integrity of Europe's energy sector."
Nord Stream 2, led by state-owned Gazprom, would allow Russia to bypass Poland and Ukraine
to deliver gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany. U.S. lawmakers say Ukraine could lose billions
of dollars in transit fees if it is built.
This is not the fault of the Democrats. This is being driven by Republicans, with Senator
Ted Cruz
leading the charge .
The Trump administration should use sanctions to halt the construction of a pipeline that
would allow Russia to transport natural gas directly to Europe, potentially generating cash to
fuel President Vladimir Putin's military aggression, says Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline "would make Europe even more dependent on Russian energy," Cruz
told FOX Business' Maria Bartiromo on Wednesday. "And that makes Europe susceptible to economic
blackmail, because Putin has already demonstrated he's perfectly willing to cut off the gas in
the dead of winter to try to force people to do what he wants."
Russia's "military aggression?" Did Russia invade Iraq twice in the last 29 years? Did
Russia launch a war in Libya? Did Russia arm and train insurgents in Syria? I think Ted Cruz
has not been paying attention to world events over the last thirty years. The number one
country engaged in foreign military aggression is the United States. Hands down.
Here are the actual military facts about Russia:
Russia's 2018 GDP of $1.66 trillion, which is just 8% of America's total GDP of $21.5
trillion.
Russia's annual manufacturing value added is currently about $200 billion compared
to $2.2 trillion for the US economy.
Russia's working age population of about 85 million is already just a fraction of the US
working age population of 255 million.
Russia's $61 billion of military outlays in 2018 amounted to less than 32
days of Washington's current $750 billion of expenditures for defense.
During the Cold War Russia armed itself to the teeth via a forced-draft and allocated
upwards of 40% of the GDP of the Soviet empire to the military. Today the Russian defense
budget amounts to less than 4% of the country's anemic economy.
The US has eleven such carrier strike groups. Russia has zero modern
carrier strike groups and one beat-up, smoky old (diesel) aircraft carrier. A carrier based
strike group is composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, at least one cruiser, a squadron of
destroyers and/or frigates, and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircraft.
The United States dwarfs Russia's ability to project force via air power-- the US has
6,100 helicopters to Russia's 1,200 and 6,000 fixed wing fighter and attack aircraft versus
Russia's 2,100. More importantly, the US has 5,700 transport and airlift aircraft compared to
just 1,100 for Russia.
The only military category where Russia enjoys a decisive edge is tanks -- 22,710 versus
8750 for the United States. This is a legacy of WW II, where Russian tanks played the
critical role in pushing the Nazis back to Germany.
As recently as 2017, the Russian fleet operated 61 submarines. "Historically the backbone
of the Russian navy, 75 percent of the 61 operational submarines are over 20 years old and
are slowly being replaced." The United States has 75 and is building two new ones each year
at a cost of $5 billion.
So why is this pipeline now a redline in the sand that Russia dare not cross? Apparently
because it will give Russia a way to make more money to finance its massive military buildup
(hopefully you understand sarcasm) and, more importantly, will cost Ukraine lost income. Can't
afford to have Ukrainian oligarchs running out of money that they are sending to Democrat and
Republican consulting firms and candidates.
While it is unlikely that the sanctions will prevent the pipeline from being completed,
largely because they come too little, too late, this is not going to
hinder efforts to punish Russia :
A new Bloomberg headline reads "U.S. Concedes Defeat on Gas Pipeline It Sees as Russian
Threat" just following new sanctions included in the House and Senate passed 2020 National
Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) this week.
But two administration officials tell Bloomberg it's too little too late, despite Trump's
heightened rhetoric of calling Germany "a captive to Russia" and charging Berlin with
essentially giving "billions" of dollars to Russia:
Senior U.S. administration officials, who asked not to be identified discussing the
administration's take on the project, said sanctions that passed Congress on Tuesday as part of
a defense bill are too late to have any effect. The U.S. instead will try to impose costs on
other Russian energy projects, one of the officials added.
Seriously, that United States has no right to threaten Russia in this way. It is reminiscent
of the sanctions that the United States imposed on Japan prior to World War II that blocked
Japan's access to critical oil and rubber supplies. That was a precipitating factor in Japan's
decision to attack us on December 7, 1941.
NATO exercises near the border with Russia reflect the alliance's preparations for a
large-scale military conflict, Russia's chief military officer said in remarks published
Wednesday.
The chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, said at
Tuesday's meeting with foreign military attaches that NATO's activities have heightened
tensions and reduced security along the Russian border.
Asked if the Russian military sees a potential threat of war, Gerasimov said that Moscow
doesn't see "any preconditions for a large-scale war."
He added, however, that Western pressure on Russia could trigger "crisis situations" that
may spin out of control and provoke a military conflict.
The anti-Russia hysteria in the United States is tying the hands of Donald Trump to act
responsibly to protect America. If he vetoes the bill put forward by the Congress he will be
accused, as he has been for more than two years, of catering to Putin.
The fanatics and frauds waving the Russian threat ignore the fact that the United States and
Russia work closely and productively on the Space Station. Our astronauts and their cosmonauts
co-exist peacefully in space and we rely on the Russians to haul our folks to and from the
Space Station. In Syria, the Combined Air Operations Center (i.e., CAOC) communicates daily
with Russian counterparts to ensure that their respective air assets do not fire on each other
or inadvertently wander into a combat space. This has been going on for more than three
years.
Russia still has nuclear weapons. It is their ultimate deterrent against another invasion.
The memory of losing more than 12 million soldiers in World War II remains vivid and painful.
The U.S. public can barely remember that we lost less than 500,000 soldiers, marines and
sailors in World War II. Our inability to remember coupled with unjustified belligerence is
pushing us towards a war with Russia that would be beyond catastrophic.
''The Trump administration should use sanctions to halt the construction of a pipeline that
would allow Russia to transport natural gas directly to Europe, potentially generating cash
to fuel President Vladimir Putin's military aggression, says Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas''
I don't know how many times I have ..Who do these politicians think they are !!??
They were not elected to 'run the world'. WE must get rid of them.
The Col told me awhile ago that the CIA doesn't do 'accidental deaths' ....too bad.
At least, these sanctions are not only directed against Russia, but also against Western
Europe.
First,the sanctions directly affect not only Gasprom, but also Western European companies
that are involved in building the pipelines (since only a small part of the work remains to
be done, Nordstream 2 can probably be finished without some of them, but if everything
continues as before, some Western European companies involved in building the pipelines would
clearly be affected by US sanctions, among them a specialized Swiss company).
Second, the purpose of the pipelines clearly is not only to help Russia selling gas, but also
to help Germany buying Russian gas.
The sanctions are not anti-Russian sanctions, but sanctions against Europe, including Russia,
Germany, and other European countries.
Especially in Germany, there is absolutely no tolerance for such sanctions with which the US
wants to force Europeans to buy uncompetitive expensive US fracking gas. There are talks
about European countersanctions against the US. The US may hope to exploit disagreements
among EU countries. After all some EU countries like Poland are against Nordstream. But the
US should not rely on this - such blatant interference in European matters is clearly not
tolerated by the EU. An appropriate countermeasure might be punitive Tarifs on US fracking
gas exports - there is not much demand for it, anyway, but it would make sense to prevent any
significant amounts of US fracking gas from being bought in Europe as long as the US wants to
force Europeans to buy it.
In any case, these anti-European sanctions show once more that the US has become a pariah
nation that has isolated itself and has no real allies any more (except perhaps Saudi Arabia
and Israel).
I would not call these sanctions only anti-Russian sanctions. They are just as well directed
against Western Europe.
First, it is not only Gasprom which is involved in building the pipeline (although it is
the owner), but also European companies (among them a Swiss one). Since Nordstream II is
almost finished, the services of some of these companies may not be necessary any more, but
if they continued normally, also some Western European companies would be sanctioned.
Second, obviously, the purpose of the pipelines is not only to help Russia selling gas,
but also to help Germany (and other Western European countries that will receive it via
Germany) buying Russian gas.
In Germany, there is very little tolerance for such sanctions, and people talk about
counter-sanctions against the US. An appropriate measure could be punitive tariffs on US
fracking gas. There is little demand for US fracking gas in Europe, anyway, since it is more
expensive, but it may make sense to make sure than no significant amounts of US gas are sold
in Europe as long as the US wants to force Europeans to buy it.
The US may hope to exploit disagreements about Nordstream within the EU. After all, some
countries like Poland are against it. But the US should not rely on this tactic working. Such
blatant interference in European energy supplies with sanction will hardly be tolerated by
the EU.
In any case, these anti-European sanctions show one more how much the US has become a
pariah country that has isolated itself and hardly has allies any more (except perhaps Saudi
Arabia and Israel).
I agree that one of the motives for these anti-European sanctions is anti-Russian insanity
in the US. But another important motive is disrespect of the US for Western Europe, which it
seems to regard as a kind of colonies or vassal states it can tell what to do.
In Europe, there is still a certain gap - while polls show that the US is very unpopular,
among European elites, pro-US forces still have a certain influence. But probably, it won't
take very long until European countries will adapt their policies towards the US in the
direction a majority of their citizens wants. Another such example of US folly is the idea
that Germany should pay more for the presence of US troops. According to polls, about half of
the German population wanted US troops to leave, anyway, even before the question of
increased payments was raised, and if the US is serious about this demand, the consequence
that it will lose its military bases is obvious.
I credit you with possessing the good sense, seemingly rare, to not wish to enter into a
direct military conflict with Russia, particularly out of some hyper inflated sense of
threat, owing (no less) to their aggression. Kudos to you for acknowledging which country is
the number one threat of military aggression in the world.
The sarcasm of referring to a mounting Russian threat is merited insofar as their military
budget is actually falling as a proportion of output.
I would suggest, however, when assessing the strength of the enemy you rightly argue that
it is stupid to provoke, that you do not limit yourself to the prevailing think-tank
approaches to assessing that threat. It's pretty obvious to most people that comparing an
Su-35 to an F-35 in dollar terms makes the F-35 3 or 4 times the military threat of the
Sukhoi. Ditto with an Su-57 to F-22 comparison.
But it would be better to listen to actual military experts with technical training in the
STEM disciplines needed to provide the analysis. I would suggest you look at the work of A.
Martyanov's work, a retired Russian naval officer writing occasionally US Naval institute
Blog. Or visit his blog, Reminiscence of the Future, through which you could get more
background on his books, including the latest, The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs.
His concern is that (while some of us use these CIA factbook-type analysis to cool off the
hysterical claims of threat) Russia hawk politicians and think-tank military pseudo-experts
are using these to seriously downplay Russia's capacity to counter American aggression. Would
welcome your thoughts on his work.
Russia's 2018 GDP of $1.66 trillion, which is just 8% of America's total GDP of $21.5
trillion.
Larry, it is patently and, actually, grossly untrue on both counts. Nor comparison of
military budgets is legitimate tool. In fact, all this is in the foundation of the United
States failing, time after time, having a good grasp of the military balance.
Last winter LNG from the Russian Yamal gas field was delivered to the United States. Perhaps
Washington should deal with its own dependence on Russian energy before it starts pressuring
Europe.
The goal is to overturn the government of Russia, just like the goal has been to overturn the
government of Bolivia (Mission Accomplished), Venezuela, Cuba, China, Russia, North Korea,
Libya, Lebanon, Iran, Syria... This is imperialism. It's history is long and has been
successfully practiced by far by the British and Americans. And it's goal is the theft of the
resources, human and natural, of the countries targeted. It is old news. Nothing has changed
for two hundred years. My God, the original Crimean War was fought for exactly the same
reasons as the current Crimean War although the actual fighting is of a different scale and
different style. Permit me to include in the litany above Native Americans who were
slaughtered for their territory. It is astonishing that President Trump seems to be less than
enthusiastic about this program, but it certainly recommends him highly if he is. And today,
we may ask who is behind this program. It is certainly not the American people.
A new Bloomberg headline
reads "U.S. Concedes Defeat on Gas Pipeline It Sees as Russian Threat" just following new
sanctions included in the House and Senate passed 2020 National Defense Authorization Act
(NDAA) this week.
But two administration officials tell Bloomberg it's too little too late , despite Trump's
heightened rhetoric of calling Germany "a captive to Russia" and charging Berlin with
essentially giving "billions" of
dollars to Russia :
Senior U.S. administration officials, who asked not to be identified discussing the
administration's take on the project, said sanctions that passed Congress on Tuesday as part
of a defense bill are too late to have any effect . The U.S. instead will try to impose costs
on other Russian energy projects, one of the officials added.
The admission is a rare concession on what had been a top foreign-policy priority for the
Trump administration and highlights how European allies such as Germany have been impervious
to American pressure to abandon the pipeline. It also shows how the U.S. has struggled to
deter Russia from flexing its muscles on issues ranging from energy to Ukraine to election
interference.
The resolution contained in the defense spending bill, expected to be immediately signed
into law by Trump, are measures which specifically target companies assembling the pipeline --
a last ditch US effort to block the controversial 760-mile, $10.2BN project that would allow
Russia to export natural gas directly to Germany, depriving Ukraine of badly needed gas transit
fees along the current route for Russian supplies.
Washington's position has long been that it weakens European energy security, while Merkel's
Germany has rejected Trump's
"meddling" in European energy affairs, which the Europeans have lately sought to
diversify.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a February visit to Poland said Nord Stream 2
ultimately "funnels money to Russians in ways that undermine European national
security."
It's expected to double Russian gas shipments to the EU's biggest economy Germany, while
others fear --
including dissenters within Merkel's own ruling coalition -- it will give Moscow
significant geopolitical leverage over Europe while also punishing Ukraine.
The new US sanctions measures will target executives of companies operating vessels laying
the pipeline , and will further seek to hinder those companies' ability to operate on the
project. It's been spearheaded by Russian giant Gazprom and five European energy companies,
including French electricity and gas firm Engie SA and Royal Dutch, and the Swiss company
Allseas Group SA, among others, and is nearing completion, expected soon this coming year.
Bloomberg
reports further, "Trump has indicated that he'll sign the legislation passed Tuesday. The
penalties on companies building the project, led by Russian energy company Gazprom PJSC, would
be effective immediately, according to a Senate Republican aide."
In total, continues Bloomberg, "Some 350 companies are involved in building the undersea
link, most notably the Swiss company Allseas Group SA, whose ships are laying the last section
of pipe in Danish waters."
Regardless, Gazprom head Alexei Miller has for months said it's "past the point of no
return" and that nothing would derail it. "We are working from the idea that Nord Stream 2 will
be realized strictly in accordance with the planned timetable," he
previously told shareholders.
THE UNITED STATES CORPORATION needs to keep its nose out of European energy policy! In
fact, it needs to keep its nose out of everybody else's business.
My apologies if this has been posted before, but here is a news conference broadcast by
Interfax a few days ago detailing a joint French-Ukrainian journalistic investigation into a
huge money laundering scheme using various shadow banking organizations in Austria and
Switzerland, benefiting Clinton friendly Ukrainian oligarchs and of course the Clinton
Foundation.
The link is short enough to not require re-formatting:
Of course. I have said this repeatedly. I say this with confidence because I have read a
book that is solely about Gazprom and all aspects of gas production, distribution, payment
etc. etc. within and outside Russia. Which of course includes the major special problem of
Ukraine. You cannot understand any Ukraine politics and scams (and Uk-RF politics and
conflicts) without understanding the role of gas, and of Ukraine as a bottleneck for a LOT of
the gas flowing between Russia and the EU. The Ukrainians have always been fiddling the
Russians and their gas. And then the EU got into the picture and caused more trouble for
Russia. Anyhow, it is fitting that the scam described in the video runs on GAS.
This doesn't seem very complicated to me.
Turkey is emboldened by Turkstream (and by the Ukraine/Georgia stalemate) - Erdogan clearly
believes he can monopolize gas transit between Central Asia/Middle East/Eastern Mediterranean
and Europe. This would be a huge geopolitical and economic benefit for Turkey - far above and
beyond any religion based "leadership" Turkey could benefit from the Muslim world.
Russia doesn't really care as it already has a pole position regarding natural gas to Europe
- Erdogan's actions will only serve to slow down any buildout of competing supply from
Central Asia/Middle East. Erdogan is likely being financially backed by Qatar as well - they
also stand to benefit if Turkey can carve out a pipeline domination in the Eastern Med.
"Follow the money..." If I recall correctly, Haftar got a nice pile of money from Russia in
the form of Libyan banknotes that he ordered, and the status of those banknotes was unclear,
but in LNA zone they are as good as the central bank notes. Legally, payments for Libyan oil
have to go to that bank, and the operations, location and loyalty of that bank deserve an
investigative article.
Erdogan has too little money to succeed, IMHO. If he were flushed, he would place nice
weapon orders in UK, France, Germany and USA, as KSA + UAE did, and as we know from Yemen,
that secures NATO blessings, either verbal or quiet. His military is probably in a better
shape than Egyptian, if vulnerable to attacks by mysterious submarines. The coastal highway
from Egypt is surely good enough for military vehicles, but it is vulnerable to attacks from
air.
Putin's priority number 2 in the region is South Stream, so he will probably not supply
mysterious submarines, Greece could being irate over maritime claims, and Egypt would have
the most obvious motif. My conclusion is that the sultan's dog's barks a lot, and sometimes
bites, but with some caution. Libyan expedition has the smell of Sicilian Expedition, a
notable event during the Peloponessian war.
Egypt will not tolerate a Muslim Brotherhood led Libya as its neighbor. Before the Turkish
support allows the GNA government to defeat Haftar Egypt will intervene. The situation can
thereby soon develop into an intense war during which Turkish troops fight on Libyan grounds
against the Egyptian military.
<=I think if Egypt intervenes in Libya it will strengthen the brotherhood in Egypt and
Libya and may terminate brother Sisi's rule.
i agree with Psychohistorian's Mezran quote.. a Russian Turkey agreement will foreclose
USA and British access to oil from Libya, Egypt and Turkey( new OPEC will form).
Now the GNA is a UN construct so Turkey supporting it should not be a big deal politically
for the west. As for the CIA fellow, if he is working as closely as he appears to be with
Russia, I think Turkey stepping in is just as suggested:
"...from the karlof1 link:
""Mezran suggested. "If the Turks become the major supporter of the GNA, not the Europeans or
the Americans, and the Russians are the ones who are the major supporter of Haftar, then all
it would take is an agreement between Moscow and Ankara to solve the Libyan problem, causing
much damage to American and European power.""Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 17 2019 20:25
utc | 11.
I particularly like the strategy cutting out the Central Bank by the General and Russia,
looks to me like there is a master plan being rolled out and it is moving quickly. Perhaps
Peace is breaking out:)
b said; "After the NATO war destroyed Africa's richest country Libya is still split."
Another "mission accomplished" by the evil empire. They couldn't stand for any leader to
share the wealth of the nation with it's people, so a lesson was given, and is still in
effect.
@ Posted by: ben | Dec 17 2019 22:58 utc | 20 who wrote
"
b said; "After the NATO war destroyed Africa's richest country Libya is still split."
Another "mission accomplished" by the evil empire. They couldn't stand for any leader to
share the wealth of the nation with it's people, so a lesson was given, and is still in
effect.
"
Thanks for that perspective. That is THE reason that I continue to call out Hillary "We
came, we saw, he died" Clinton as the war criminal I hope she is prosecuted for in her
lifetime.
Does anyone have an idea of both the size and combat readiness of Egyptian forces?
Would Sisi be in a position to send in a force of, say, 50,000 or 100,000 troops with
armour and air cover? If so, he could end both the Muslim Brotherhood/Al-Quaeda problem in
Libya as well as nip one of Erdogan's meddlesome adventures in the bud.
I want what Libyans want, but it seems nobody can be arsed to find that out. I strongly
suspect Libyans' preference would be for neither of these two foreign funded options since
both of these grubby groups are committed to maintaining the repeal of the petroleum act
which has protected Libyans from rapacious foreign corporations and foreign-state owned
enterprises who put sweet FA into any of their hosts' economies while meddling unceasingly in
host politics to ensure everyone but them gets screwed.
IMO the amerikan interest is less about oil & other Libyan resources than ensuring
that Libya can never again support North African nations who the empire is determined to
annex and form into a vast super-national state where governments have no control, but
corporations do.
AFAIK, both cliques in Libya are proponents of Arab nationalism which intend to pretend
the black african and berber populations are all foreigners despite both groups having a
longer history of living in the region than arabs do.
Arabs entered this region, the Magreb, about 647 AD fighting to take control off the
indigenous population of the Magreb which up until then comprised myriad african ethnicities
& language groups until around 709 when Arabs united under the banner of Islam had
complete control.
There really hasn't been a demographic based census in Libya, most likely because the role
of black africans or as the imperialists like to refer to them 'sub-saharan' (which of course
implies they are outsiders) has always been contentious among some Libyans who consider
themselves to be 'Arabs' or as they like to claim, the ruling class.
Generally the bulk of lighter skinned Libyans class themselves as Berber-Arabs, while other
Libyans (eg Muamar Ghaddaffi -may he rest in peace) consider themselves to be Berber.
The iFUKUS intervention promoted a mob claiming to be solely Arab and therefore the
legitimate rulers of the nation. They also reckoned all black africans in Libya were
foreigners. A genocidal campaign of terror and good old amerikan style lynching of black
folks followed. We rightly see the sociopath in H Clinton at this time, but what about
Oblamblam, WTF was he thinking?
Eventually some bright spark saw that killing was wasteful, so those black Libyans
remaining were rounded up and sold into slavery - to 'owners' primarily in Saudi Arabia and
the UAE.
Who knows if Libya can ever find another leader as enlightened as the Colonel? All we do
know is that there is no chance of such a leader emanating from either Haftar's gang or the
'UN-recognised' gang.
Libyans don't deserve either of these agglomerations of arseholes which is why they are
copping them. A big message from the big states that any nation which indulges in such caring
and sharing of neighbours & friends as Libya did, must be severely punished so no other
decent society will dare try that on.
"<=I think if Egypt intervenes in Libya it will strengthen the brotherhood in Egypt and
Libya and may terminate brother Sisi's rule."
I think Snake is on to something here. The power balance in Egypt is fairly evenly divided
with only a slight advantage to Sisi over Muslim Brotherhood forces.
What Turkey is seeking is fair treatment and recognition of rights it feels that it has in
the Mediterranean Sea. What a group of nations (Israel, Egypt, Greece and the US –
hereafter referred to as The Group) is attempting to do is deny Turkey any rights at all.
Those that disagree with Turkish claims have the following position:
1. Greek "owned" islands, which in some cases (e.g. Kastellorizo) go really close to the
Turkish coast, exclude Turkey from any significant rights to the Mediterranean.
2. Turkey has no claim to the area around Cyprus.
3. Cyprus is partnered with Israel, Egypt, Greece and the US for energy exploration in the
Mediterranean Sea and Turkey is not included.
4. In January 2019, the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum was convened as a means for
Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Jordan, Israel, Italy and the Palestinian Authority to develop a
regional natural gas market. Turkey was excluded from this forum and was very upset. (A month
later ExxonMobil announced a new gas discovery in Cypriot waters.)
In other words it is a melange of denying rights, legal assertions and exclusion
tactics.
Now look at a map of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and then tell me - Is it reasonable
that Turkey should have practically no rights at all? Any fair-minded person would recognise
that Turkey does and all reasonable people would recognise that all the countries bordering
the area of exploration have rights and should cooperate and work together and none should be
excluded. What is happening is that The Group wants it all.
It is a very big mistake to believe that Turkey is in the wrong and also that it will back
down on this.
In addition to Turkey, the countries that are excluded appear to be Syria, Lebanon, and
Libya. It is right that The Group is seeking to exclude all these other countries?
It doesn't matter whether the oil and gas are viable (it may or may not be) what is
happening is that Turkey is not being allowed any recognition and they are choosing to assert
(take) their rights (because there is no other option available to them). If Turkey did not
do so then they would lose any future rights to the Mediterranean at all.
Syrian, Lebanon and Libya are obviously too weak to assert their rights. Although the
Palestinian Authority participated in Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum I don't really expect
Palestine to benefit much and it should be noted the Palestinian Authority is are far too
weak to do anything – I'm afraid they are just being used.
Greece and Cyprus are being used as pawns by the US (why else would US Ambassador Pyatt be
based in Greece? This kind of disruption is his speciality) and Greece is being set to
confront Turkey.
Now look at a map of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and then tell me - Is it reasonable
that Turkey should have practically no rights at all? Any fair-minded person would recognise
that Turkey does and all reasonable people would recognise that all the countries bordering
the area of exploration have rights and should cooperate and work together and none should be
excluded. What is happening is that The Group wants it all.
The reason why Turkey does not want the Libyan GNA to fall is because they fear that
Haftar will fall into line with The Group and further strengthen Turkey's exclusion from the
Mediterranean energy exploration. So it is in Turkey's great national interest to secure
Libya as an ally. Also, the GNA are still recognised as the legitimate government of Libya by
the UN so in legal terms Turkey is not doing anything wrong in recognising and supporting the
Libyan GNA.
As regards the Turkey/Libyan Maritime Zone - What is happening is that Turkey and Libya
are showing The Group that it to can carve out areas and claim to areas of the Mediterranean
Seas just as much as they can.
It was widely believed that the 2015-17 Cyprus reunification talks where positive and the
closet ever to reaching a settlement. Who should be blamed for the collapse? Many believe
that is was the Greek Cypriot side that was a fault. The big sticking point was that the
Turkish Cypriot side wanted some 40,000 Turkish troops to remain based in the North of the
Island because of fears over security. At the time the Greek Cypriot side said it was
impossible to accept the continued presence of Turkish troops. This was a big mistake, Cyprus
would have been federally united and in 10 years time the Turkish troops could well have been
greatly reduced. When the talks collapsed the talk was of inevitable partition.
And what do we see in 2019? Anastasiades, the Greek Cypriot President, wants to reopen
talks "exactly where they left off" - A belated recognition that it was the Greek Cypriots
that threw away what would have been a fantastic settlement and a fairly blatant attempt to
peel away Turkish Cypriots from Turkey (Anastasiades call for a resumption of talks seems to
have come with some unnecessary hostile remarks directed at Turkey), and hasty desire (now
that there has been a gas discovery off the coast of Cyprus) to rescue the agreement because
The Group now they can use this agreement to further marginalise Turkey.
I like Frances's take on this...ie smells like a master plan between Russia and Turkey...
Why not...?...the Sultan and VVP deciding to carve up some territory, as in the old
colonial days...?
Russia and Turkey are getting closer all the time...Helmer's take about the 'Stavka' not
being fully on board with this notwithstanding...
The very useful clue is from that Atlantic Council article...the rule to apply here is to
just be for everything they are against...and be against whatever they are for...
In this case they are agitating for the West to step up to the plate and arm the
GNA...even a fly zone for farg's sakes...
Yeah...everything but let Turkey and Russia divide the spoils among themselves
right...?...throw a wrench into the spokes at any cost...?
But the thing is that Trump is not interested in any new wars or proxy wars...and I think
a Libya 2.0 is going to be an extremely hard sell anywhere, with the disaster of Killary's
2011 adventure still fresh in everyone's minds...
So nobody is stepping in...there is a vacuum there and I think that there may be some
grand bargain cooking behind the scenes with VVP and the Sultan...who knows how far
this thing could go...?
It's already causing HUGE headaches in Sodom on the Potomac...as is clear from the shrieks
of agony from the likes of the Atlantic Council and many others...
Turkey may not be the best militarily; they are slow and ponderous but they are strong
enough to move forward, occupy and hold space and take a significant amount of attrition
while doing so. Turkey is strong enough to be able to assert "facts on the ground" even if
they have to absorb several hard blows - they have been learning a lot from Russia on
this.
With regards to Libya, Turkey cannot be prevented from moving forward, occupying space,
supplying the Libyan GNA, providing military equipment and troops, etc. UNLESS their lines of
supply are cut and this means that The Group would have to attack first and sink a Turkish
ship.
And this would mean that Greece (the obvious party that might be set-up for this role)
would attack Turkey and sink a Turkish ship? This would be an act of war against Turkey and
Turkey would, as a result of such action, be fully (and legally) entitled to respond. So,
commonsense tells you that Greece and The Group can't really do this.
If The Group enables Haftar to sink a Turkish ship then Turkey will be able to claim an
attack against them, and retaliate and occupy Libya and expect NATO support whilst doing so.
The effect of such an act by Haftar's forces would inevitably result in victory for Erdogan
(counter-intuitive though that may seem).
While Turkey and Erdogan's association with the Muslim Brotherhood can be seen as a vector
that ensures Egypt's hostility towards Turkey's presence in Libya can this really express
itself militarily?
The Muslim Brotherhood is a strong movement in Egypt which has been around for a very long
time. Effectively this excludes Egypt from joining any direct attack on Turkey because they
will fear the unintended consequences that will arise within Egypt.
I'm afraid The Group, in seeking to exclude a major country like Turkey (with an obvious
major interest in the Mediterranean), is taking the first step towards war. Sinking a Turkish
ship would be another step towards war. Turkey will win any conflict as long as they are
prepared to accept some hard blows (and they will be). The Group will lose any conflict
because they are only able to strike small (sink a ship at most) or strike huge
(annihilation); they have no middle game – Turkey will be able to absorb small blows
and China & Russia will not allow Turkey to be destroyed.
At present, Turkey has nothing to lose (as far as the Mediterranean Sea energy exploration
goes) - it follows that in any military conflict that Turkey will gain. Military conflicts
have to be settled by negotiation - it is only a western delusion that wars are fought to
unconditional surrender or absolute destruction. It is The Group and, in particular, Greece
that will lose (Greece has a lot to lose in any conflict - no matter how well it goes for
Greece - they will have to give up something, even if they think they have won, because that
will be price of ending any conflict (because it always is unless you can annihilate your
adversary).
It is not Turkey that is over-reaching- it is The Group (Israel, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and
the US) that have overplayed their hand and have most to lose.
The only thing that makes any sense in terms of a strategic plan is that it nothing more
than machinations by the US seeking to bring chaos closer to the heart of Europe. From the
outset, The Group knew what they were doing to Turkey and they knew how Turkey would feel
about it and how Turkey was likely to react.
div> On paper, Erdogan may have easy superiority in Libya, but he may get
into troubles for two reasons:
1) Libyans, currently quite fractured, actually both major coalitions are riven by internal
lack of cohesion. To compare, Assad government had no business surviving, but the opposition
was split into moderates, i.e. small time gangsters and bandits having difficulties making
units of more than 100 people, and jihadists who had some abstruse reasons to hate each other.
And Turkey did not make such a good job in Idlib, Afrin and north Aleppo.
2) Egypt. Forget about ground troops, they would probably focus on air supremacy. This is an
Achilles heel of an expeditionary force. If they are intelligent (a risk that has to be
consider), they may hit the moment Turkey attempts to expand its foothold. Just letting it
slide would be a considerable loss of face for al-Sisi
Posted by: Piotr Berman , Dec 18 2019 2:19 utc |
36
On paper, Erdogan may have easy superiority in Libya, but he may get into troubles for two
reasons:
1) Libyans, currently quite fractured, actually both major coalitions are riven by internal
lack of cohesion. To compare, Assad government had no business surviving, but the opposition
was split into moderates, i.e. small time gangsters and bandits having difficulties making
units of more than 100 people, and jihadists who had some abstruse reasons to hate each
other. And Turkey did not make such a good job in Idlib, Afrin and north Aleppo.
2) Egypt. Forget about ground troops, they would probably focus on air supremacy. This is an
Achilles heel of an expeditionary force. If they are intelligent (a risk that has to be
consider), they may hit the moment Turkey attempts to expand its foothold. Just letting it
slide would be a considerable loss of face for al-Sisi
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 18 2019 2:19 utc |
36
Kastellorizo – A Greek Island off the Turkish Coast
Greece "owns" Kastelorizo, an island which is only about 2 kilometres off the coast of
Turkey. "Ownership" of islands such as Kastellorizo is meant to "give" Greece the "right" to
exclude Turkey from the Mediterranean Sea? I'm afraid that this is an absolutist, simplistic
and unrealistic position.
The "ownership" of Kastellorizo has changed many times throughout history and has been
"owned" by Turkey (the Ottomans) on a number of occasions. If you look at the maps you can
see that Kastellorizo is part of the same geological formation as the nearby Turkish coast.
It's akin to claiming "ownership" of my doorstop and then claiming that you "own" everything
outside the walls of my house (including my garden, car, garage, dog, cat, etc. and then
telling me I can't even use my doorstep or leave my house. If you did that to me, I would
push you aside and that is what Turkey is doing to Greece.
I know that many, many Greeks fundamentally disagree but they are just being partisan,
unfair and realistic and are allowing themselves to getting carried away with hostility
towards Turkey.
Kastellorizo could have been assigned to Turkey at the end of the WWII as part of the
Paris Peace Treaties of 1947 but instead, the "ownership" of Kastellorizo was removed from
Italy and given to Greece.
In any military conflict between Turkey and Greece (like, for instance) sinking a Turkish
Ship, then islands Kastellorizo will be immediately taken into "ownership" by Turkey and it
will be a long time, if ever, that Greece can think about re-"owning" Kastellorizo.
Essentially, the issue of Kastellorizo and its "ownership" would be settled and there would
be very little Greece could do about it.
When Greece asserts is rights to the Mediterranean Sea based on "ownership" of islands
such as Kastellorizo and uses such "ownership" to deny Turkey rights to the Mediterranean Sea
it is just being provocative and unreasonable and inducing Turkey.
Turkey is wrong if it thinks something in international law allows it to annul the freedom of
the seas and block pipelines. I will repost what
I wrote on October 31:
MARITIME LAW EXPLAINED
The United Nations Convention
on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) from 1958 guarantees to all countries the right to lay
cables and pipes in international waters. This is part of the freedom of the seas. Laying
cables and pipes is not "economic" activity as defined in the 1982 treaty that gave
countries the right to a 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone
(EEZ).
Pipe laying is affected only by the little-known
Espoo Convention from 1991 that obliges the parties to carry out an environmental
impact assessment of certain activities at an early stage of planning. Nowhere in the
treaty does it say that it can be used to stop the freedom of navigation or other freedoms
of the seas.
Turkey does not need and doesn't intend to conquer Libya.
All Turkey has to do is maintain the Libyan GNA which is the government legally recognised
by the UN.
Only the Security Council can remove recognition of the Libyan GNA and this would be a
fairly cynical move by the West if attempted (and, I imagine, would be vetoed by more than
just Russia and China).
Military aircraft are vulnerable when ground troops have access to modern surface to air
missiles and are trained in their use. Expect Libyan GNA forces to have copious supplies of
the ground and shoulder-launched versions of these weapons. What good did aircraft do for
Saudi Arabia in Yemen? There is no winner here, only stalemate and that's more than good
enough for Turkey.
The only way to prevent Turkey from achieving its aims is to sink it's supply ships. This
would be a rash and extremely inadvisable act.
I would advise policymakers and Governments (particularly, The Group) to see where this is
all heading and not go down this path.
The coming debacle may present few heroes for our consideration. The weakest states are
probably headed for the smash-and-grab treatment at the end of the day. How is one to believe
that Erdogan gives a damn about the government in Libya?--any government? Hafter and the GNA
are both pretenders who have only marginal support in that country. These are but stick
figures in a land that's been thrown into a howling anarchy, thanks to the military operation
that Obama green-lighted. Since Erdogan is dealing with virtual nonentities, this aggression
is his aggression. And this illegal sea lane is his insult to international law and prior
agreements that recognize the rights of regional nations. It looks a lot like an act of war
or at least a pretty serious provocation.
Greece, for one, ought to be worried about this development, as some of the resources it
counts on as its territorial right is threatened here.
I don't believe that any of the Mediterranean Sea is "international waters" it's all been
carved up into Exclusive Economic Zone's (EEZ)- there's nothing left! The Group are carving
everything up for themselves and left Turkey (and a number of other countries e.g. Syria)
with very little.
Any person thinking rationally would be able to see that Turkey has been treated unfairly
and will see Turkey has been left with no effective (peaceful) way to get any redress.
All Greece and the rest of the Mediterranean nations need to do is get together, cooperate
and share.
The actions of The Group (Israel, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and the US) are the ones that are
causing all the difficulties because they have tried to grab everything for themselves and
exclude everyone else.
Greece and the rest of The Group need to include Turkey, Lebanon, Libya, Syria and
Palestine (and remove the US).
When Greece asserts is rights to the Mediterranean Sea based on "ownership" of islands
such as Kastellorizo and uses such "ownership" to deny Turkey rights to the Mediterranean Sea
it is just being provocative and unreasonable and inducing Turkey to consider military
options.
Turkey controls the Dardanelles (the entrance to the Black Sea) by treaty. Turkey has been
treated as it deserves. The Aegean Sea is recognized as Greek waters; and that probably
includes the seabed beneath it. When Greece was at its most vulnerable after the recent
financial collapse, Turkish air force ramped up overflights of Greek territory, some of it
pretty aggressive, just to rub salt in the wound. It wasn't very neighborly. It looks like
Erdogan's new sea lane trespasses the Greek island of Rhodes and several others.
What Andrew Korkblko suggests is that the pipeline, that Turkey is obstructing with the
"Turkey/Libyan Maritime Zone", is not really about Cypriot gas (which b. believes will be too
small and uneconomic to justify a pipeline) but about Israeli gas which is intended to be
piped under the Mediterranean Sea into Europe as a competitor to Russian gas. Maybe the whole
thing about Cypriot gas is just a smokescreen to disguise the true origins (Israel) of the
gas.
What, I suppose, Israel is trying to achieve is to minimise the number of nations that
have a say about (and, I guess, a cut of) the pipeline. So, the attempt to cut Turkey and
other weaker countries out of share (gas transit fees) has forced Turkey to move on its
long-held grievance about being treated unfairly in the Mediterranean Sea.
Are we about to see a war in the Mediterranean between Greece and Turkey caused by US and
Israeli machinations?
I am not talking about rights that are legally justified by "ownership" - what I am saying
is that the whole of the Mediterranean Sea and its resources should be shared fairly and
reasonably by all nations of the Mediterranean.
The proposed gas pipeline is just an example where a small group of nations (Israel,
Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and the US - The Group) have got together to grab what they can for
themselves and exclude others.
Your argument is essentially we have the legal right, we are recognised under
international law, therefore we can do what we like, we can have it all, and you, who have
been excluded, you will have nothing. But, anyone can see that this is unreasonable and the
path to disaster.
But in some ways all this is now moot. The pipeline appears to be really about Israeli gas
and the lack of wisdom in trying to exclude Turkey. If The Group has any sense they will
share the booty with Turkey. If not, they will get Greece to sink a Turkish ship - the
outcome won't be good for Greece.
Speaking of Shane Gustafson: this is an excellent book:
Crisis amid Plenty: The Politics of Soviet Energy under Brezhnev and Gorbachev
(Princeton Legacy Library) Paperback – February 1, 1991
Although the Soviet Union has the most abundant energy reserves of any country, energy
policy has been the single most disruptive factor in its industry since the mid-1970s. This
major case study treats the paradox of the energy crisis as an essential part of larger
economic problems of the Soviet Union and as a key issue in determining the fate of the
Gorbachev reforms.
One of the theses of the book is that the Soviet industry had a "silo" structure: the
various components (exploration, drilling, production, transport, export) didn't coordinate
with one another and depended on the glue of communist party apparatchiks to keep the system
functioning. Gorbachev is said to have eliminated that glue and chaos ensued.
Schmoe@ 36
Re: "Due to an EU ruling related to foreign-affiliated pipelines (or some variation of
that), it will likely be forced to operate at 50% of capacity."
"... The sanctions against Russia are not that broad but they have impacted Russian energy E&P efforts in difficult to reach environments. ..."
"... That is just common sense...large Euro energy companies are partners in Nordstream and have invested billions...do you think they are just going to throw up their hands and say 'Ok we give up'...? ..."
"... And supposedly the owners of those ships [there is actually only one company in the world, Swiss-based Allseas, that operates these deep sea pipe-laying ships] are going to drop Nordstream because they don't want to lose potential US business in the Gulf of Mexico... ..."
"... That is bullshit...what pipelines are being planned for the Gulf...?...Zero... ..."
We shall see how strong. I'd put money on the Germans doing business with their natural
Eastern partners. Business is business, suzerain occupation since 75 years
notwithstanding.
Actually I harbor doubts about the strength of imperial ability, as the natural reaction
every time they use dollarweapon, is the weakening of the weapon...
That Good Man V Putin, I'm sure we all recall, recently spoke to this matter...signing off
with "they (or the dollar) will collapse soon."
zerohedge > "The Dollar Enjoyed Great Trust Around The World. But For Some Reason It Is
Being Used As A Political Weapon, Imposing Restrictions. Many Countries Are Now Turning Away
From The Dollar As A Reserve Currency. US Dollar Will Collapse Soon."
We will see on Nordstream 2 sanctions' effectiveness. Generally, US sanctions, when
aggressively enforced, are extremely effective (and lethal in many cases). The sanctions
against Russia are not that broad but they have impacted Russian energy E&P efforts in
difficult to reach environments.
I would also add that:
a) LNG prices are currently at incredibly low levels and if they hold at these levels
importation of LNG could minimize Germany's hit, and Qatar last week announced it will expands
its LNG export capabilities;
b) Russia / Gazprom did not finance Nordstream 2's construction; initially I believe Gazprom
did so but a consortium of 4 Netherlands (including Royal Dutch Shell), Austrian and German
companies later assumed the financing obligation;
c) Due to an EU ruling related to foreign-affiliated pipelines (or some variation of that),
it will likely be forced to operate at 50% of capacity.
Based on a) - c) there is much less than meets to eye for Nordstream 2.
A more likely outcome than violation of US sanction IMO is an asymmetric response from
Germany; perhaps the EU aviation authorities will deny whatever Band Aid Boeing puts our for
the 737 Max's MCAS system. Or Germany approves Huawei's 5g equipment.
I'm not sure how I missed those Nov 16 posts so thanks for forwarding. This quote will be
interesting:
"With some 85% of the pipeline already laid, new congressional sanctions aimed at
companies participating in the pipeline's construction will not stop it.
Instead, they will become a new bone of contention between the United States and
Europe.
That is just common sense...large Euro energy companies are partners in Nordstream and
have invested billions...do you think they are just going to throw up their hands and say 'Ok
we give up'...?
Even a child can see this Spiegel diarrhea for what it is...
And supposedly the owners of those ships [there is actually only one company in the world,
Swiss-based Allseas, that operates these deep sea pipe-laying ships] are going to drop
Nordstream because they don't want to lose potential US business in the Gulf of Mexico...
That is bullshit...what pipelines are being planned for the Gulf...?...Zero...
Yet the Russians are the world's gas and pipeline superpower and have more pipeline
projects in the works...
As if Allseas is going to risk their biggest customer for some bullshit US
sanctions...[they are also laying the Turkstream pipeline..."
Any company whose operations are all international will unfortunately have to think long
and hard about losing accessing to dollars. Open violations of US Sanctions are still almost
unheard of - Rosneft in Venezuala, Reliance Industries might now be buying Venezuelan oil -
so I would not be pollyanish about their power. Note that European companies will not use
Instinex out of fear of losing access to dollars.
Your questions are absolutely justified. The original story was written by Georg Mascolo,
the German Dana Milbank, i.e. the chief mouth piece of the intelligence services. This is an
obvious attempt to put pressure on Merkel to hamper relations with "Evil Russia" just prior
to a possible breakthrough in the Normandy talks. The German services, especially the BND,
are the last strongholds of Transatlanticism here, and they try to brace themselves against
any rapprochment between Russia and Germany. But this will be in vain. It's simply that the
geopolitical imperative is too strong: the two countries fit together perfectly in terms of
their respective needs and abilities.
Power of Siberia is here. It's finished. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese
Premier Xi Jinping christened the pipeline to begin the month. Next month Putin will travel to
Turkey to join President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to open the first of four potential trains of the
Turkstream pipeline.
It is only Nordstream 2 that continues to lag behind because of insane levels of pressure
from the United States that is dead set against this pipeline coming online.
And the reason for that is the last of the major energy issues surrounding Gazprom needing
resolution this month, the gas transit contract between it and Ukraine's Naftogaz.
The two gas companies have been locked in legal disputes for years, some of which center on
Crimea's decision to break away from Ukraine and rejoin Russia in 2014. Most of them, however,
involve disputes over costs incurred during the previous and expiring gas transit contract.
The particulars today are ultimately irrelevant as these lawsuits have been used as nothing
more than blackmail to keep a new contract from getting signed. Ukraine has sued Gazprom in
courts, like in Sweden, that rule not by the tenets of contract law but rather through the lens
of social justice.
These have been political decisions that allowed Naftogaz to seize Gazprom's European
assets, further complicating any resolution to the conflict. These policies were pursued
aggressively by former Ukrainian President and long-time US State Department asset Petro
Poroshenko and they have done nothing to help Ukraine.
All they have done is strip-mine the country of its assets while keeping a war to prevent
the secession of the Donbass alive.
This dovetails with the external pressure applied to EU member states, like Denmark, to
delay if not outright thwart completion of Nordstream 2.
Opposition to Nordstream 2 in the US is all about leveraging influence in Ukraine and turn
it into a client state hostile to Russia sharing a border with Russia. If there's no gas
transit contract and there's no Nordstream 2 then US LNG suppliers can sell gas there and
deprive Russia of the revenues and the business.
It's truly that simple. But that strategy has morphed over the years into a convoluted chess
match of move/countermove in the vain hope of achieving something that looks like a victory.
But this isn't a game of real chess but rather a timed match.
Because the end of 2019 was always coming. And Ukraine would eventually have to decide as to
which direction it wanted to go. Moreover, that same choice was put in front of the EU who have
clearly, in the end, realized that the US under President Trump is not a long-term reliable
partner, but rather a bully which seeks its goals through threat and intimidation.
Stay with the US or green light Nordstream 2. The choice in Europe was clear. Nordstream 2
gets finished, as Denmark finally granted the final environmental permit for its construction
in October.
That delay moves the completion date out into 2020. And that now gives the US Senate one
last chance to stop the completion of the pipeline because everything else to this point has
failed, including the EU changing the rules on its gas pipeline rules to force Gazprom to
'unbundle' the pipeline from the gas flowing through it.
Germany amended that directive to allow Nordstream 2 to be regulated at the German federal
level and not at the EU level. This was as much of a win as could have been hoped for.
"The reason for the push is that this window is closing. A lot of Nord Stream is done
already. It will cost them dearly. I think if those sanctions pass [the companies] will shut
down, and I think the Russians will have to look for another way to do this if they can do
this," Risch said.
In reality the window has closed.
At the end of the day even if this legislation passes there will be no way to stop the
pipeline from being completed or the gas to flow through it. With so little of the pipeline
left to complete there is no practical way to stop it from happening. Risch and other US
senators are hoping to strand Nordstream 2 as an unfinished boondoggle but that's folly.
The German government wants this pipeline, therefore the German government will put up the
funds to ensure the contractors are paid and the pipeline completed.
There is a limit to the extent which sanctions can block commerce and once completed the US
will have no ability to sanction the gas flowing through the pipeline. It's a sad and pathetic
state of affairs that so much time, manpower and capital was wasted to stop a pipeline that is
necessary for Germany's future.
It also highlights the hypocrisy of US policy since there isn't a peep out of the US on
Turkstream, which will stitch NATO ally Turkey to Russia via 15.75 cm of natural gas every
year. Eventually it will replace the lost South Stream pipeline as the other trains are built
and contracted for.
All of the countries in eastern Europe are hungry for a piece of Turkstream's future. Serbia
Hungary, Bulgaria, Italy and Greece are all potential customers.
And all of these countries that currently get their gas from Ukraine are at risk if nothing
gets resolved between it and Russia. This is why the meeting between Putin and Ukrainian
President Zelensky is so important. It has the opportunity to begin reversing the damage done
to the basic fabric of Ukraine and Europe by agreeing to a path to ending the war in the
Donbass and coming to an agreement on gas transit.
There are more than $12 billion in lawsuits outstanding that Naftogaz has pending against
Gazprom. With Nordstream 2 a fait accompli that is all the leverage Zelensky has at that
meeting.
This game is a microcosm of the way the US foreign policy establishment uses Europe as the
battleground in the war against Russia. And given the way the political winds are shifting,
Europeans are getting very tired of it.
This is why gas storage facilities in Europe are full, there is real fear that Gazprom will
walk away from the talks with Ukraine and will wait out the completion of Nordstream 2. Gazprom
offered an extension of the current contract on the condition that Ukraine drop the
lawsuits.
Naftogaz said no. We'll see if Zelensky is smart enough to say yes.
China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline in operation
HARBIN -- The China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline was put into operation on
Monday.
At the gas-distributing and compressing station in the city of Heihe, northeast China's
Heilongjiang Province, the data screen was switched on, indicating parameter variations of
the gas passage. The station is the first stop after the Russia-supplied natural gas enters
China.
The pipeline is scheduled to provide China with 5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas in
2020 and the amount is expected to increase to 38 billion cubic meters annually from 2024,
under a 30-year contract worth 400 billion U.S. dollars signed between the China National
Petroleum Corp (CNPC) and Russian gas giant Gazprom in May 2014.
The cross-border gas pipeline has a 3,000-km section in Russia and a 5,111-km stretch in
China.
Shao Hua, general manager of Heihe City Natural Gas Development Co., Ltd. of China Gas,
said that the border city of Heihe still largely relies on coal for heat. With the
Sino-Russian natural gas pipeline's operation, the city now has access to a stable supply of
clean energy.
Heihe has registered 30,000 households for switching to natural gas for heating. It will
take one year to complete full coverage of the gas network in the city, according to the
company.
China's natural gas consumption reached 280.3 billion cubic meters in 2018. The country's
demand for natural gas will continue to soar toward 2040, outstripping domestic output by
around 43 percent, according to an International Energy Agency report.
China aims to raise the use of natural gas to 10 percent of the country's energy mix by
2020 and 15 percent by 2030, said the National Development and Reform Commission.
How Russia-China Gas Pipeline Changes Energy Calculus
By Olga Tanas, Anna Shiryaevskaya and Dan Murtaugh - Bloomberg
Russia is pivoting its energy business to the east. The world's largest exporter of
natural gas has built an enormous pipeline running from Siberia to the Chinese border to feed
China's insatiable energy appetite. The new conduit, called the Power of Siberia, is part of
a plan by Russian President Vladimir Putin to reduce his country's dependence on gas markets
in Europe and tap into the fast-growing economies of Asia. For China, whose domestic energy
production can't keep up with demand, the pipeline offers a vital new source of
supply....
This has no small strategic significance: previously, for foreign sales, Russia was
dependent on customers in Europe who are all, to a greater or lesser extent, subject to
pressure from the war party.
Added to which transport was affected by Kiev's whims. Turkstream (scheduled to start next month) and
the two pipelines to Germany help with the second problem and this one with the first. Sooner
or later, Russia-China pipelines would have appeared but I think Ishchenko's
argument that the Western war on Russia speeded up the process is credible.
(Come to think of it, now that Putin's hand is imagined everywhere, maybe it's time to
consider that he's the American war party's real backer; after all, everything it's touched has
turned to dust: from the forever wars, to Iran's increased influence, to the Russia-China
alliance and now the furore in the USA over Ukraine – itself another disastrous
project.)
MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. Russian-Ukrainian gas consultations with the participation of
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, the Minister of Energy and Environmental Protection of
Ukraine Alexey Orzhel, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller, the heads of Naftogaz of Ukraine and LLC Gas
Transmission System of Ukraine were held in Vienna on Thursday.
This is according to statements by the Russian Energy Ministry and Gazprom. Read also
GECF believes Russia and Ukraine
will manage to agree on gas transit to EU this year "The parties discussed
Russian-Ukrainian cooperation in the gas sector -- settlement of mutual claims for the
implementation of contracts, the terms for the transit of Russian gas to Europe from 2020, the
prospects for direct purchase of Russian gas for Ukrainian consumers," the statement said.
Russia, the European Commission and Ukraine have been holding consultations on gas transit
after 2020. The dialogue is complicated by the ongoing legal disputes between Russia's Gazprom
and Naftogaz of Ukraine. Moscow offers a "package solution" that includes a settlement
agreement on legal disputes and direct gas purchases at reduced prices. As a fallback, Russia
is ready to extend the current transit agreement for the whole year of 2020.
Ukraine considers the settlement agreement on legal disputes and the signing of a
short-term contract to be unacceptable. Earlier this month, Naftogaz' executive director, Yury
Vitrenko, announced that Ukraine would pump Russian transit gas to its underground storage
facilities (UGS), if this gas entered the country without an appropriate contract starting from
January 1, 2020.
The next round of trilateral consultations on the transit of Russian gas to Europe through
Ukraine from 2020 is scheduled for the first week of December.
The existing contracts for the supply and transit of Russian gas through Ukraine expire on
December 31.
At a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on November 27, a gas price for the
population was fixed at 8 hryvnias per cubic meter. KIEV, November 30. /TASS/. The gas price
for Ukrainians may increase to 12,000 hryvnias (about $500) per 1,000 cubic meters in the event
of the termination of transit from Russia from January 1, 2020, Minister of Energy and
Environment of Ukraine Alexey Orzhel said on Friday.
"The price of 12,000 hryvnia is possible in the absence of transit," he said speaking on the
national television.
Orzhel also recalled that the government had offered Ukrainians the so-called guaranteed
price of gas in the amount of 8,000 hryvnias (about $333) per 1,000 cubic meters in case the
gas transit is halted from the new year and the cost of gas increases significantly.
At a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on November 27, a gas price for the
population was fixed at 8 hryvnias per cubic meter.
Gazprom began construction of the offshore section of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline in May
2017. The pipeline with a length of 930 km runs along the bottom of the Black Sea to the coast
of Turkey. Further, a land section will stretch for 180 km to the border of Turkey with
neighboring countries.
Gazprom began construction of the offshore section of the Turkish Stream in May 2017,
managed by South Stream Transport B.V. (100% subsidiary of Gazprom). The offshore section of
the pipeline runs along the bottom of the Black Sea to the coast of Turkey. Its length is 930
km. The pipeline will be continues by a 180-km land transit line to the border of Turkey with
neighboring countries. The first line will be designed for the Turkish market, the second - for
gas supply to the countries of South and Southeast Europe. The capacity of each line is 15.75
billion cubic meters of gas per year. The first deliveries are scheduled for the end of 2019.
Gazprom announced the completion of deep-sea laying of the offshore section of the first
Turkish Stream in April 2018. Turkey is Gazprom's second largest export market. Currently,
Russian energy is supplied to this country through the Blue Stream pipeline and the
Trans-Balkan gas pipeline. In 2017, Gazprom exported a record volume of gas to the Turkish
market - 29 billion cubic meters, which is 17.3% more than in 2016, and 1.7 billion cubic
meters (6.2%) more than in 2014 when the previous maximum was set (27.3 billion cubic meters).
At the end of May, Gazprom and the Turkish government signed a protocol on the land section of
the Turkish Stream pipeline transit line to supply Russian gas to European consumers. Gazprom
and the Turkish company Botas concluded an agreement on the basic conditions and parameters for
the construction of the section. Joint venture TurkAkim Gaz Tasima A. S. will carry out
construction of the land section.
Earlier, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gazprom Alexander Medvedev said that
in the near future the company would finally determine the route of the second line of the
Turkish Stream for gas supply to countries in Southern and Southeast Europe. According to him,
two main options are being discussed in accordance with the procedures in the European Union
and the European Commission. Medvedev cited Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary as
potential markets.
Gazprom's investments in the construction of the Turkish Stream for 2018 are planned at the
level of 182.4 bln rubles ($2.76 bln) against almost 93 bln rubles ($1.4 bln) in 2017. The
company estimates the cost of laying the pipeline at 7 bln euro.
The Ukies imagine they are so clever! They will waive a claim they have pretty much no chance
of ever being awarded, in return for a lesser amount of guaranteed cold, hard cash plus a
transit deal which will commit Russia to giving them at least another $20 Billion in transit
fees over 10 years. Russia should pretend to consider it, just to wind them up, and run out
the clock on the signing of a new contract. Then say, "I've decided not to after all, old
chap".
"... the United States' high-handedness is taking it dangerously close to making an enemy of Europe. ..."
"... There is nothing remotely fair about carving out markets for your product by eliminating all other choices. I realize Washington will say it is only trying to stop Nord Stream II so that Russia will be forced to transit gas across Ukraine and pay it exorbitant transit fees, and that it is doing Ukraine a favour while not restricting Europe from getting pipeline gas. ..."
"... American strategy is always all about getting everyone else by the balls so that they have no choice but to accept American control and orders. That's called American Global Leadership, which they figure is good for the world because it's certainly good for American investors. ..."
In the U.S. Senate, they have spoken about how to block "Nord stream -- 2"
06:37 24.11.2019 (updated: 06:54 24.11.2019)
MOSCOW, 24 Nov – RIA Novosti. The U.S. Congress intends to include sanctions
against the Russian gas pipeline "Nord stream -- 2" in the 2020 defence budget, says Jim
Risch, head of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, in the latest edition of "Defense
News".
Sanctions against companies involved in the construction of the pipeline have been
included in a draft law "On National Defense for 2020", said Rish. "The reason for this step
is that the window of opportunity is closings. Most of "Nord stream" has already been
constructed", said the Senator. However, he expressed the opinion that the sanctions "will
convince" the construction company to stop work on the project because the American
restrictions "will cost them dearly".
If sanctions are included in the US defence budget, companies involved in the
construction of Nord Stream 2 will close, and Russia will, supposedly, have to look for other
contractors, says Riesch.
However, he noted that the House of Representatives and the Senate have not yet reached a
final agreement on the bill as a whole.
The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted in late July to pass a bill on
sanctions against Nord Stream 2. It was prepared by Republican Senator Ted Cruise and
Democrat Gene Shahin, and, in particular, involves a ban on the entry into the United States
and the freezing of US assets under the jurisdiction of persons involved in the "sale, lease,
provision or assistance in providing" ships for laying at sea Russian pipelines at a depth of
30 metres.
For the bill to enter into force, it must be approved by the House of Representatives
and the US Senate, as well as US President Donald Trump.
Let the Liberty Bell ring out loud! -- albeit that it is cracked and was never rung on 4th
July, 1776, but, as usual, bullshit baffles brains!
And that'd be Jean Shaheen; the translation managed to get both her name and her gender
wrong.
As I have said before now, the United States' high-handedness is taking it dangerously
close to making an enemy of Europe. It has made it clear it is trying to restrict Europe's
energy choices to American LNG or American LNG.
There is nothing remotely fair about carving
out markets for your product by eliminating all other choices. I realize Washington will say
it is only trying to stop Nord Stream II so that Russia will be forced to transit gas across
Ukraine and pay it exorbitant transit fees, and that it is doing Ukraine a favour while not
restricting Europe from getting pipeline gas.
But Washington still aims to control Ukraine
and use it as a bastion against Russia, and if it can arrange things so that Russian gas must
pass across Ukraine under American control, why, it can conjure stoppages and interruptions
of service at its pleasure, as well as helping Ukraine to jack up transit fees so that Russia
must either raise its gas prices until American LNG is competitive, or sell at a loss.
American strategy is always all about getting everyone else by the balls so that they have no
choice but to accept American control and orders. That's called American Global Leadership,
which they figure is good for the world because it's certainly good for American
investors.
Except when he says "we all", he is talking about less than ten thousand people in a country
of 147 million. Yes, few Russians get to breathe the rarefied air of true mental clarity.
So far as I am aware, the latest offer on the table is still for a one-year extension of
the current contract, although Russia did agree to drop legal claims and counter-claims
between itself and Ukraine, in which Russia claimed Ukraine underpaid/did not pay at all for
gas it received. Ukraine has thus far not replied.
Moscow has made some concessions, but there has been no movement at all toward a long-term
contract that I have seen. I maintain that a cold winter of frozen bums in Europe would offer
a salutary effect. Russia is actually better-placed to deliver LNG by vessel than the USA, as
well, as it is much closer.
There must be a limit to European loyalty to the USA in the face of conditions so markedly
against its interests, a limit to how much shit it will smear on its own face to keep its
partner happy and amused.
Apparently U-ropean gas storage networks are full, not to mention that there has been heavy
investment in the Austrian Baumgarten storage network, Germany, France, infact just about
everywhere except the UK (coz the French will store it for them and sell the gas back at a
nice mark up)
Ukraine has already stated publicly that although its own gas storage bunkers are full, that
amount will not likely carry it through the winter if there is an interruption owing to
non-renewal of the gas contract, and if the winter is cold and harsh as usual. I imagine
Europe is the same; storage facilities are not so extensive that they could take the entire
region through a cold winter.
Not surprising that Navalny and his ilk oppose Nord Stream. They oppose anything that is good
for Russia. They don't seem to be interested in developing russia into a better place, but
tear it apart and ruin it from within. It is rather odd that Russia has these types of people
as "opposition politicians". People who hate their own country and don't even pretend to hide
their hatred.
I don't see them that dangerous though because they seem to lack wider support and Russia is
not currently facing any troubles that would turn people against the current rulers.
And I'm not saying that Russia is ruled by a very competent government currently. The economy
should be growing a lot faster than it has been growing for the past ten years. But the
current government is still 100x better than Navalny would be. He would probably bring down
Russia even worse than Yeltsin did.
"Naftogaz" has promised turn off the gas valve
03:01 28.11.2019 (updated: 10:45 28.11.2019)
KIEV, November 28 – RIA Novosti. The Ukraine does not intend to shut off the gas
valve, even if Russia fails to sign a new contract on gas transportation, Executive Director
of "Naftogaz of the Ukraine", Yuriy Vitrenko, has said in an interview with Deutsche Welle.
In his opinion, the valve will be turned off by Gazprom, not Naftogaz.
"But I remind you, that in a letter sent by Gazprom to Naftogaz, in black and white
[it states] that on January 1st at 10 am Moscow time Gazprom has no reason to keep the gas
flowing in the direction of the Ukraine", he said.
So you Russia is going to hold Europe to ransom, not the Ukraine, right?
What happened to all the leverage Ukraine gained by its blinding victory in Swiss
arbitration? They should be able to lead Moscow around by the nose now.
"... Gazprom sent about 200 BcM to Europe last year, of which 70 BcM went via Ukraine. If Ukraine is completely cut out now, Gazprom could manage about 195 BcM, with every other available pipeline to Europe straining at the rivets. But you need a 'technical reserve' capability, which would take Russia's requirement to 230 BcM. Obviously, the intent is that they should commit to sending this amount through Ukraine, forever. ..."
"... The other interesting figure is included in the claim that 'Ukraine's economy is growing nicely, but loss of transit income would shave 4% off of GDP.' When the initial threat that eventually transit would be stopped was floated, Ukraine squealed that it would bilk it of 2% of GDP. But now somehow that loss would be double but the economy is 'growing nicely'? Ummm .how do you figure? ..."
The appeal court in Sweden has refused to satisfy the appeal of "Gazprom" in a dispute
with the Ukrainian concern "Naftogaz", according to Tass. Executive Director of "Naftogaz of
Ukraine" Yuriy Vitrenko on "Facebook" called the decision a "complete victory".
"Complete victory, Ukraine wins again! We won the appeal at the first complaint of
"Gazprom" the decision of the Stockholm arbitration!" said his statement.
It is anticipated that decisions in two other cases in court between the same parties
will be taken in 2020.
The Stockholm arbitration court in December 2017 and February 2018 issued decisions on
disputes between Gazprom and Naftogaz in respect of contracts for supply and transit of gas,
obliging as a result, Russian the Ukrainian company to pay more than $ 2.5 billion. Gazprom
appealed against the decision in March 2018, and in May demanded the complete abolition of
the "transient" solution.
Ukraine allegedly offered to do a deal in which they would not drop their claim of being
owed $2.5 Billion by Gazprom, but would take it in free gas. They say they have not had a
reply yet. The same article suggests Russia would be perfectly happy to just run out the
clock. Even happier now, I would think.
A few interesting figures are included in the article. For one, the author claims that in
order to completely circumvent Ukraine for gas delivery to Europe, it would need pipeline
capacity of 230 BcM. Here's how it breaks down – Gazprom sent about 200 BcM to
Europe last year, of which 70 BcM went via Ukraine. If Ukraine is completely cut out now,
Gazprom could manage about 195 BcM, with every other available pipeline to Europe straining
at the rivets. But you need a 'technical reserve' capability, which would take Russia's
requirement to 230 BcM. Obviously, the intent is that they should commit to sending this
amount through Ukraine, forever.
The other interesting figure is included in the claim that 'Ukraine's economy is
growing nicely, but loss of transit income would shave 4% off of GDP.' When the initial
threat that eventually transit would be stopped was floated, Ukraine squealed that it would
bilk it of 2% of GDP. But now somehow that loss would be double but the economy is 'growing
nicely'? Ummm .how do you figure?
The way I see it, Russia has a couple of options; it can just let the clock run out, carry
on with Nord Stream II, and pump everything it can right to capacity, without any going
through Ukraine. That would leave it about 5 BcM short, obviously with no reserve capability.
The USA could be invited to make that shortfall up with its Molecules of Freedom. But that
relies on Merkel not suddenly deciding to slap more restrictions on Nord Stream II so that it
could not pump to its full capacity – she has apparently said all along that Nord
Stream II will not be allowed unless some gas continues to go through Ukraine – the
obvious clash of wills is that Russia is trying to ensure that amount is as small as
possible, while the west and Ukraine are trying to ensure that amount is as large as
possible.
Another option is for Russia to speed up and intensify its own LNG-export capability, and
perhaps it can make up the shortfall with its own LNG carriers. Either way, it is plain the
Ukies think they have Russia by the balls, and can dictate terms as they like – perhaps
they will even add the return of Crimea to their demands for a gas deal, they seem to feel so
confident. Let's see how it plays out; only a couple of weeks remain to get a deal done, and
it's everyone against Russia.
The look on Vitrenko's face will be priceless if the Russians just close up their
briefcases and go home. Not to mention the look on Sefcovic's face. Not to mention the jump
in gas prices in Europe.
"... this is why the US went into Afghanistan, to get in between China & Iran ..."
"... The implication of what you just said is that the United States will never leave Afghanistan as in ever. Even if the Taliban take the whole country leaving only Kabul and its surroundings, the US will still opt to stay to have bases to launch drones and aircraft from to dominate the region. ..."
From the moment that the U.S. re-imposed sanctions in earnest on Iran late last year,
Pakistan has been looking at ways to resuscitate a deal that had been agreed in principle
before the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) last
May. This deal involved moving as much gas as Pakistan needs from Iran's Asalouyeh into
Pakistan's Gwadar and then on to Nawabshah for further transit if required. At the same time,
China has been in long-running discussions with Pakistan over the specific projects that
Beijing wanted to place in Pakistan as part of its 'One Belt, One Road' (OBOR) programme. All
the while, the U.S. has been
trying to stymie any such arrangement but OilPrice.com understands that the
Iran-China-Pakistan deal is now back on, and with a vengeance.
China's covert strategic deals are virtually always buried in interminably long anodyne
statements that belie the true laser-focused intentions of Beijing and this time is no
different. Joint statements just over a week ago from both Pakistan and China sides laid out
four projects that are part of a 'broader co-operation' between China and Pakistan. They all
sound relatively run-of-the-mill affairs, although still major undertakings, and are: the
upgrading of the Pakistan Refinery Karachi, the building out of a coal to liquid engineering
plant based on Thar coal at Thar Sindh, the utilisation of Thar Block VI for coal gasification
and fertiliser projects, and the finalisation of the feasibility study on South-North Gas
Pipeline Project that traverses Pakistan.
The fact that they are much more significant to the global geopolitical balance was
evidenced by the U.S.'s furious warnings to Pakistan, based on the fact that all of these
projects are in reality a key part of Beijing's planned China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC), which, in turn, is a cornerstone of the OBOR initiative. Even as it was, U.S. South
Asia diplomat, Alice Wells, warned that CPEC – which, vitally, includes heavy financing
from Beijing and, therefore, a massive debt obligation to China by the host country over time
– will only profit Beijing. As it stands, the cost of just the first round of CPEC
projects has risen from an initial costing of US$48 billion to at least US$62 billion right
now. "It's clear, or it needs to be clear, that CPEC is not about aid," said Wells. "[The CPEC]
corridor is going to take a growing toll on the Pakistan economy, especially when the bulk of
payments start to come due in the next four to six years," she added. "Even if loan payments
are deferred, they are going to continue to hang over Pakistan's economic development
potential, hamstringing Prime Minister [Imran] Khan's reform agenda," she underlined.
The U.S.'s fury would have been much worse if it knew that, in fact, the 'finalisation of
the feasibility study on South-North Gas Pipeline Project' whilst true, is just proverbially
the tip of the iceberg. "The actual plan is to resuscitate the Iran-Pakistan oil and gas
pipelines over time, beginning with the gas pipeline, moving unlimited amounts of Iranian gas
to Pakistan, and then into China and the rest of Asia should it be needed," a senior source who
works closely with Iran's Petroleum Ministry told OilPrice.com last week. "It is being done in
conjunction with Russia, with the twin aims of firstly ensuring that China's 'One Belt, one
Road' initiative continues to run smoothly from the East through Pakistan and then Westwards
into Iran and onwards into Europe," he said. "And, secondly, to ensure for Russia that Iran's
gas does not start flowing freely into Europe as and when the U.S. sanctions are lifted, as
this would undermine Russia's power over Europe, which is founded on supplying over a third of
Europe's gas," he added.
For China, the new pipeline – integral to its plan of making Iran and Pakistan its
client states over time – has the added benefit of putting the U.S. on the backfoot in
the ongoing trade war. For Iran, the incentives of closer ties with China and Russia are
principally financial but also relate to China being just one of five Permanent Members on the
U.N. Security Council (the others being Russia, the U.S., the U.K., and France). For Pakistan
as well there is the added incentive that it is tired of being lambasted by the U.S. for its
duplicity in dealing with international terrorism. Not that long ago, the U.S. accused Pakistan
of supporting the Taliban (correct but it was catalysed by the U.S.'s key Middle Eastern
'ally', Saudi Arabia), Al Qaeda (correct but catalysed, funded and logistically supported by
the Saudis), the Haqqani network (correct but also funded and logistically supported by the
Saudis), and Islamic State (sort of correct but that was also mainly, of course, the Saudis)
against U.S. forces, despite taking hundreds of billions of dollars in aid payments.
Islamabad has also been an outspoken critic of renewed U.S.
sanctions against Iran. Just after the first wave of the new sanctions were rolled out on 7
August last year, Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesman Muhammad Faisal said that: "We are
examining the implications of the U.S.'s re-imposed sanctions on Iran, however, Pakistan, being
a sovereign state, reserves the right to pursue legitimate economic and commercial interests
while respecting the international legal regime." Later, in his inaugural speech as Pakistan's
then-new Prime Minister, Imran Khan, called for improving ties with the country's immediate
neighbours, including Iran, from whose President, Hassan Rouhani, he also accepted an
invitation for an early state visit to Tehran. Bubbling back at that time to the top of the
list of practical initiatives that could be advanced quickly was the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline
(IPP), which, according to the Iran source: "[Imran] Khan personally backs and has made a
priority project."
In practical terms, Pakistan certainly needs all the sustainable energy sources it can get.
As it stands, the country has seen domestic natural gas production stagnate at around 4 billion
cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) against demand of more than 6 Bcf/d, which has led to repeated load
shedding in many major cities of up to 15 hours a day. Moreover, the supply and demand
disparity is set to become even worse very soon, as industry estimates project that Pakistan's
domestic gas production is set to fall to nearer 2 Bcf/d by 2020, due to aging infrastructure,
whilst demand will rise to around 8 Bcf/d by the same time, driven by rising demand from the
power, industry, and domestic sectors as the economy continues to grow by around 5% per year.
According to Pakistan's Ministry of Energy (MoE), the planned 0.75 Bcf/d of gas (for five
years, in the first instance) that would flow from Iran's supergiant South Pars natural gas
field would add around 4,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity into the Pakistan grid, via a direct
Iran-Pakistan pipeline.
The original agreement for the IPP, signed between Iran and Pakistan in 1995, was predicated
on the pipeline running from Iran's supergiant South Pars non-associated natural gas field into
Karachi but the most recent iteration of the route involves the gas running from Iran's
Asalouyeh and into Pakistan's Gwadar and then on to Nawabshah. The latest projection of the
cost of the pipeline is around US$3.5 billion, according to industry sources, although US$2.5
billion of this has already been invested in the 900 kilometre stretch on Iran's side that has
already been completed. Pakistan's 780 kilometre stretch has yet to be started.
Given the geopolitical importance of both Iran and Pakistan to Russia and China, though, as
analysed in greater depth in my
new book on the global oil markets , finding the money for the remainder of the project
will not be a problem at all For China, there is a threefold motivation. First, its plans to
integrate the IPP into the CPEC project means that Gwadar is earmarked to be a key logistical
node in China's 'One Belt, One Road' initiative. Second, it wants to keep Iran as one of its
key suppliers of oil and gas in the future. And third, it regards supporting those who the U.S.
opposes as being a central plank of its foreign policy, even over and above the short-term
tactic of wrong-footing the U.S. in the ongoing trade war. "One immediate reaction [of China to
the burgeoning trade war with the US], will be to seek to expand and broaden economic links by
offering improved market access to non-U.S. companies, by strengthening supply chain links and
by replacing American commodities with imports from emerging market nations," according to
Jonathan Fenby, China research chairman at TS Lombard, in London.
"There is a tectonic shift going on that goes well beyond the tariff war, as China
seeks to assert itself regionally and tries to establish a wider global role for itself while
the U.S. moves from the 'constructive engagement' of the Clinton, Bush and Obama
administrations to regarding China as a 'strategic competitor'," he added. The U.S. clearly
sees it the same way, not just based on the latest comments by Wells but also on the fact that
as long ago as January 2010, the U.S. formally requested that Pakistan abandon the project in
return for which it would receive assistance from Washington for the construction of a
liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal and for the importing of electricity from Tajikistan
through Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor.
The implication of what you just said is that the United States will never leave
Afghanistan as in ever. Even if the Taliban take the whole country leaving only Kabul and its
surroundings, the US will still opt to stay to have bases to launch drones and aircraft from
to dominate the region.
So in twenty years time we might see a story how some young soldier has just arrived
in-country to Afghanistan who will be proud that his grandfather took part in the original
invasion and that he is now following in his grandfather's and father's footsteps.
China, the new world-engineers, has gotta be looking at Pakistan as an industrial water
source. They're probably already building several dams to catch the runoff. Perhaps mining
too – same mountains as Afghanistan, just the other side, no?
China has the money and
manpower. Iran the energy. In fact, we could be thinking the same thing.
Ambassador Wells' warning "..is going to take a growing toll on the Pakistan economy,
especially when the bulk of payments start to come due.." indicates the lack of a mirror in
the State Dept or a copy of the text of the 13th IMF 'bailout' signed last July.
From the point of view of election promise of detente with Russia, Trump clearly betrayed them. He was a neocon puppet
from the beginning to the end, His policy was not that different from hypothetical policy of Hillary administration.
Notable quotes:
"... Caitlin Johnstone discredits a CNN listicle on Trump's "softness" towards Moscow. In fact, she writes, the U.S. president has actually been consistently reckless towards Moscow, with zero resistance from either party. ..."
"... It would be understandable if you were unaware that Trump has been escalating tensions with Moscow more than any other president since the fall of the Berlin Wall; it's a fact that neither of America's two mainstream political factions care about, so it tends to get lost in the shuffle. Trump's opposition is interested in painting him as a sycophantic Kremlin crony, and his supporters are interested in painting him as an antiwar hero of the people, but he is neither ..."
"... Anyone who has not read Orwell's 1984 should do so sooner rather than later. The official control of narrative in the novel is what we are presently drowning in. To watch it work so spectacularly is beyond depressing. ..."
"... The complete corruption of Western MSM is the reason many of us regularly read Caitlin and Consortium, all desperately trying to get some sort of a reality-check in an otherwise "Orwellian" media environment. ..."
"... The simple truth here is that in regard to the military (read 'military complex', which includes the deep state and shadow government [intelligence agencies] every president is a puppet. ..."
"... The coup in Ukraine was a major provocation to Russia, but was also a repeat of the Americans' rape and pillaging of Russia under Yeltsin, Clinton's puppet. The per capita median income of Ukrainians has dropped in half from 2013, despite pumping $billions in from the US. ..."
"... Failing impeachment, from the attempts by the Clinton Campaign, to the Congressional sanctions on Russia, to sabotage of Syria withdrawal to the Mueller hoax, to the State Dept hawks protests on Ukraine, the effort to prevent Trump from following through on his campaign promise has been the primary goal of the intelligence community. It is instructive to note that the phone call that has led to the current impeachment inquiry was made on July 26, the day following Robert Mueller's clownish testimony before Congress, effectively ending that line of impeachment. ..."
"... Also note that although the phone call was made in July, nothing was said about it until after John Bolton was fired in September, 2 months later. ..."
Caitlin Johnstone discredits a CNN listicle on Trump's "softness" towards Moscow. In fact,
she writes, the U.S. president has actually been consistently reckless towards Moscow, with
zero resistance from either party.
CNN has published a fascinatingly manipulative and falsehood-laden article titled "
25 times Trump
was soft on Russia ," in which a lot of strained effort is poured into building the case
that the U.S. president is suspiciously loyal to the nation against which he has spent his
administration escalating dangerous new cold war aggressions.
The items within the CNN article consist mostly of times in which Trump said some words or
failed to say other words; "Trump has repeatedly praised Putin," "Trump refused to say Putin is
a killer," "Trump denied that Russia interfered in 2016," "Trump made light of Russian
hacking," etc. It also includes the
completely false but oft-repeated narrative
that "Trump's team softened the GOP platform on Ukraine", as well as the utterly ridiculous and thoroughly
invalidated claim that "Since intervening in Syria in 2015, the Russian military has
focused its airstrikes on anti-government rebels, not ISIS."
CNN's 25 items are made up almost entirely of narrative and words; Trump said a nice thing
about Putin, Trump said offending things to NATO allies, Trump thought about visiting Putin in
Russia, etc. In contrast, the 25 items which I am about to list do not consist of narrative at
all, but rather the actual movement of actual concrete objects which can easily lead to an
altercation from which there may be no re-emerging. These items show that when you ignore the
words and narrative spin and look at what this administration has actually been doing ,
it's clear to anyone with a shred of intellectual honesty that, far from being "soft" on
Russia, Trump has actually been consistently reckless in the one area where a US president must
absolutely always maintain a steady hand. And he's been doing so with zero resistance from
either party.
It would be understandable if you were unaware that Trump has been escalating tensions with
Moscow more than any other president since the fall of the Berlin Wall; it's a fact that
neither of America's two mainstream political factions care about, so it tends to get lost in
the shuffle. Trump's opposition is interested in painting him as a sycophantic Kremlin crony,
and his supporters are interested in painting him as an antiwar hero of the people, but he is
neither. Observe:
1. Implementing a Nuclear Posture Review with a more aggressive stance
toward Russia
Last year Trump's Department of Defense rolled out a Nuclear Posture Review which
CNN itself called "its toughest line yet against Russia's resurgent nuclear forces."
"In its newly released Nuclear Posture Review, the Defense Department has focused much of
its multibillion nuclear effort on an updated nuclear deterrence focused on Russia," CNN
reported last year.
This revision of nuclear policy includes the new implementation of
"low-yield" nuclear weapons , which, because they are designed to be more "usable" than
conventional nuclear ordinances,
have been called "the most dangerous weapon ever" by critics of this insane policy. These
weapons, which can remove some of the inhibitions that mutually assured destruction would
normally give military commanders, have already been rolled off the assembly line.
2.
Arming Ukraine
Lost in the gibberish about Trump temporarily withholding military aide to supposedly
pressure a Ukrainian government who was never even aware of being
pressured is the fact that arming Ukraine against Russia is an entirely new policy that was
introduced by
the Trump administration in the first place. Even the Obama administration, which was
plenty hawkish toward Russia in its own right, refused to implement this extremely provocative escalation
against Moscow. It was not until Obama was replaced with the worst Putin puppet of all time
that this policy was put in place.
3. Bombing Syria
Another escalation Trump took against Russia which Obama wasn't hawkish enough to also do
was bombing the Syrian government, a longtime ally of Moscow. These airstrikes in April 2017 and
April 2018 were perpetrated in retaliation for chemical weapons use allegations that there
is
no legitimate reason to trust at this point.
4. Staging coup attempts in
Venezuela
Venezuela, another Russian ally, has been the subject of relentless coup attempts
from the Trump administration which persist unsuccessfully to this very day .
Trump's attempts to topple the Venezuelan government have been so violent and aggressive that
the starvation sanctions which he has implemented are believed to have
killed tens of thousands of Venezuelan civilians .
"Signals coming from certain capitals indicating the possibility of external military
interference look particularly disquieting," the Russian Foreign Ministry said. "We warn
against such reckless actions, which threaten catastrophic consequences."
5. Withdrawing
from the INF treaty
For a president who's "soft" on Russia, Trump has sure been eager to keep postures between
the two nations extremely aggressive in nature. This administration has withdrawn from the 1987
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, prompting UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to
declare that
"the world lost an invaluable brake on nuclear war." It appears entirely possible that Trump
will continue to adhere to the John Bolton school of nuclear weapons treaties until they all
lie in tatters, with the administration strongly criticizing the crucial New START
Treaty which expires in early 2021.
Some particularly demented Russiagaters try to argue that Trump withdrawing from these
treaties benefits Russia in some way. These people either (A) believe that treaties only go one
way, (B) believe that a nation with an economy the size of South
Korea can compete with the U.S. in an arms race, (C) believe that Russians are immune to
nuclear radiation, or (D) all of the above. Withdrawing from these treaties benefits no one but
the military-industrial complex.
6. Ending the Open Skies Treaty
"The Trump administration has taken steps toward leaving a nearly three-decade-old agreement
designed to reduce the risk of war between Russia and the West by allowing both sides to
conduct reconnaissance flights over one another's territories," The Wall Street Journalreported last month , adding that the
administration has alleged that "Russia has interfered with American monitoring flights while
using its missions to gather intelligence in the US."
Again, if you subscribe to the bizarre belief that withdrawing from this treaty benefits
Russia, please think harder. Or ask the Russians themselves how they feel about it:
"US plans to withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty lower the threshold for the use of nuclear
weapons and multiply the risks for the whole world, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai
Patrushev said," Sputnik
reports .
"All this negatively affects the predictability of the military-strategic situation and
lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, which drastically increases the risks for
the whole humanity," Patrushev said.
"In general, it is becoming apparent that Washington intends to use its technological
leadership in order to maintain strategic dominance in the information space by actually
pursuing a policy of imposing its conditions on states that are lagging behind in digital
development," he added.
7. Selling Patriot missiles to Poland
"Poland signed the largest arms procurement deal in its history on Wednesday, agreeing with
the United States to buy Raytheon Co's Patriot missile defense system for $4.75 billion in a
major step to modernize its forces against a bolder Russia," Reuters
reported last year .
8. Occupying Syrian oil fields
The Trump administration has been open about
the fact that it is not only maintaining a military presence in Syria to control the
nation's oil, but that it is doing so in order to deprive the
nation's government of that financial resource. Syria's ally Russia strongly opposes this,
accusing the Trump administration of nothing short of "international state banditry".
"In a statement, Russia's defense ministry said Washington had no mandate under
international or US law to increase its military presence in Syria and said its plan was not
motivated by genuine security concerns in the region," Reutersreported last
month.
"Therefore Washington's current actions – capturing and maintaining military control
over oil fields in eastern Syria – is, simply put, international state banditry,"
Russia's defense ministry said.
9. Killing Russians in Syria
Reports have placed Russian casualties anywhere between a handful and
hundreds , but whatever the exact number the U.S. military is known to have killed Russian
citizens as part of the Trump administration's ongoing Syria occupation in an altercation last
year.
exact number the U.S. military is known to have killed Russian citizens as part of the Trump
administration's ongoing Syria occupation in an altercation last year.
10. Tanks in
Estonia
Within weeks of taking office,
Trump was already sending Abrams battle tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and other
military hardware right up to Russia's border as part of a NATO operation.
"Atlantic Resolve is a demonstration of continued US commitment to collective security
through a series of actions designed to reassure NATO allies and partners of America's
dedication to enduring peace and stability in the region in light of the Russian intervention
in Ukraine," the Defense Department said in a statement.
11. War ships in the Black
Sea
12. Sanctions
Trump approved new sanctions against Russia on August 2017. CNN reports the following:
"US President Donald Trump approved fresh sanctions on Russia Wednesday after Congress
showed overwhelming bipartisan support for the new measures," CNN reported at
the time . "Congress passed the bill last week in response to Russia's interference in the
2016 US election, as well as its human rights violations, annexation of Crimea and military
operations in eastern Ukraine. The bill's passage drew ire from Moscow -- which responded by
stripping 755 staff members and two properties from US missions in the country -- all but
crushing any hope for the reset in US-Russian relations that Trump and Russian President
Vladimir Putin had called for."
"A full-fledged trade war has been declared on Russia," said Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev in
response.
13. More sanctions
"The United States imposed sanctions on five Russian individuals on Wednesday, including the
leader of the Republic of Chechnya, for alleged human rights abuses and involvement in criminal
conspiracies, a sign that the Trump administration is ratcheting up pressure on Russia," The
New York Timesreported in December
2017 .
14. Still more sanctions
"Trump just hit Russian oligarchs with the most aggressive sanctions yet," reads
a Vice headline from April of last year.
"The sanctions target seven oligarchs and 12 companies under their ownership or control, 17
senior Russian government officials, and a state-owned Russian weapons trading company and its
subsidiary, a Russian bank," Vice reports. "While the move is aimed, in part, at Russia's role
in the U.S. 2016 election, senior U.S. government officials also stressed that the new measures
seek to penalize Russia's recent bout of international troublemaking more broadly, including
its support for Syrian President Bashar Assad and military activity in eastern
Ukraine."
"The Trump administration on Thursday imposed new sanctions on a dozen individuals and
entities in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea," The Hill
reported in November of last year. "The group includes a company linked to Bank Rossiya and
Russian businessman Yuri Kovalchuk and others accused of operating in Crimea, which the U.S.
says Russia seized illegally in 2014."
17. Oh hey, more sanctions
"Today, the United States continues to take action in response to Russian attempts to
influence US democratic processes by imposing sanctions on four entities and seven individuals
associated with the Internet Research Agency and its financier, Yevgeniy Prigozhin. This action
increases pressure on Prigozhin by targeting his luxury assets, including three aircraft and a
vessel," reads
a statement by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from September of this year.
18.
Secondary sanctions
Secondary
sanctions are economic sanctions in which a third party is punished for breaching the
primary sanctions of the sanctioning body. The U.S. has leveled sanctions against both
China and
Turkey for
purchasing Russian S-400 air defense missiles, and it is
threatening to do so to India as well.
19. Forcing Russian media to register as
foreign agents
Both RT and
Sputnik have been forced to register as "foreign agents" by the Trump administration. This
classification forced the outlets to post a disclaimer on content, to report their activities
and funding sources to the Department of Justice twice a year, and could arguably place an unrealistic
burden on all their social media activities as it submits to DOJ micromanagement.
20.
Throwing out Russian diplomats
The Trump administration joined some 20 other nations in casting out scores of
Russian diplomats as an immediate response to the Skripal poisoning incident in the
U.K.
21. Training Polish and Latvian fighters "to resist Russian aggression"
"US Army Special Forces soldiers completed the first irregular and unconventional warfare
training iteration for members of the Polish Territorial Defense Forces and Latvian
Zemmessardze as a part of the Ridge Runner program in West Virginia, according to service
officials," Army Times
reported this past July.
"U.S. special operations forces have been training more with allies from the Baltic states
and other Eastern European nations in the wake of the annexation of Crimea by the Russian
Federation in 2014," Army Times writes. "A low-level conflict continues to simmer in
eastern Ukraine's Donbas region between Russian-backed separatists and government forces to
this day. The conflict spurred the Baltics into action, as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia
embraced the concepts of total defense and unconventional warfare, combining active-duty,
national guard and reserve-styled forces to each take on different missions to resist Russian
aggression and even occupation."
22. Refusal to recognize Crimea as part of the Russian
Federation
Key point: Trump agreed to send more forces to Poland to defend it against Russia.
What Happened: U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to deploy approximately 1,000 additional
U.S. troops to Poland during a meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda on the sidelines of
the U.N. General Assembly in New York City, Reuters reported Sept. 23.
Why It Matters: The deal, which formalizes the United States' commitment to protecting
Poland from Russia, provides a diplomatic victory to Duda and his governing Law and Justice
ahead of November elections. The additional U.S. troops will likely prompt a reactive
military buildup from Moscow in places like neighboring Kaliningrad and, potentially,
Belarus.
24. Withdrawing from the Iran deal
Russia has been consistently opposed to Trump's destruction of the JCPOA. In a statement
after Trump killed the deal, the Russian Foreign Ministry said
it was "deeply disappointed by the decision of US President Donald Trump to unilaterally refuse
to carry out commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action", adding that this
administration's actions were "trampling on the norms of international law".
25.
Attacking Russian gas interests
Trump has been threatening Germany with sanctions and troop withdrawal if it continues to
support a gas pipeline from Russia called Nord Stream 2.
"Echoing previous threats about German support for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Trump said
he's looking at sanctions to block the project he's warned would leave Berlin 'captive' to
Moscow," Bloomberg
reports . "The US also hopes to export its own liquefied natural gas to Germany."
"We're protecting Germany from Russia, and Russia is getting billions and billions of
dollars in money from Germany" for its gas, Trump told the press.
I could have kept going, but that's my 25. The only reason anyone still believes Trump is
anything other than insanely hawkish toward Russia is because it doesn't benefit anyone's
partisanship or profit margins to call it like it really is. The facts are right here as plain
as can be, but there's a difference between facts and narrative. If they wanted to, the
political/media class could very easily use the facts I just laid out to weave the narrative
that this president is imperiling us all with dangerous new cold war provocations, but that's
how different narrative is from fact; there's almost no connection. Instead they use a light
sprinkling of fact to weave a narrative that has very little to do with reality. And meanwhile
the insane escalations continue.
In a cold war, it only takes one miscommunication or one defective piece of equipment to set
off a chain of events that can obliterate all life on earth. The more things escalate, the
greater the probability of that happening. We're rolling the dice on Armageddon every single
day, and with every escalation the number we need to beat gets a bit harder.
We should not be rolling the dice on this. This is very, very wrong, and the U.S. and Russia
should stop and establish detente immediately. The fact that outlets like CNN would rather
diddle made-up Russiagate narratives than point to this obvious fact with truthful reporting is
in and of itself sufficient to discredit them all forever.
Our historians here seem to be forgetting the brutal takeover of Ukraine by the USSR in
the 50's, in which millions of Ukrainians were shot, raped, beaten and starved out, while
"ethnic Russians" moved in and took over. Kruschev didn't "give" Crimea away, he simply
transferred the administration thereof to the Soviet Republic of "the" Ukraine (a term
Ukranians have always decried as a way to make it seem as if Ukraine had always been a part
of the USSR). The "ethnic Russians" wouldn't have been there at all if the Soviets hadn't put
them there. That argument is the same one Hitler used as his excuse to annex Poland, and Polk
used to annex Texas. It's true Russia's self-interest (and well-founded fears of foreign
betrayal) have been largely ignored, but it's also disingenuous to ignore their murderous
20th-century imperialism. Just because we're not the good guys doesn't mean they are
either.
anon4d2 , November 20, 2019 at 18:12
Perhaps you forgot that the USSR actions in eastern Europe after WWII were in direct
response to the murder of 20 million Russians in WWII by the Nazi forces, attacking through E
Europe just as Napoleon had done. All US casualties in all its wars are less than five
percent of that, and 95 percent of Nazi division-months were spent in the USSR. On that front
they had nearly all of the casualties and did nearly all of the fighting. No wonder they were
a bit uncomfortable afterward with leaving open the favorite attack route of the west. What
would the US have done if a hundred times its WWII casualties were caused by two invasions
through (for example) Mexico? Would we have left the door open? Such circumstances cannot be
ignored. Starting one's version of history after the world's greatest provocation cannot be
said to clarify the history.
Toby McCrossin , November 21, 2019 at 02:56
"Our historians here seem to be forgetting the brutal takeover of Ukraine by the USSR in
the 50's"
Nice alternative facts. Ukraine was one of the original constituent republics of the Union
of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1922!
" Kruschev didn't "give" Crimea away"
Huh? Crimea had been part of Russia since 1783. You know you can check this stuff yourself
using Google, right?
"The "ethnic Russians" wouldn't have been there at all if the Soviets hadn't put them
there."
Right, so the Soviets put the Russians in Crimea in 1783, 139 years before it was in
existence. I guess the Soviets mastered time travel.
I know reading's hard and all but you might wanna try it some time.
Jon Anderholm , November 20, 2019 at 02:22
An essential article by Caitlin .. Thanks so much .
Sam F , November 19, 2019 at 22:56
Another excellent article by Caitlin Johnstone.
Jeff G. , November 19, 2019 at 19:59
Given the laws of cause and effect, our nuclear missiles might as well be considered to be
pointed straight at ourselves. Like shooting at one's image in a mirror or joining in a
mutual suicide pact. Sheer insanity.
ranney , November 19, 2019 at 17:26
WONDERFUL article, Caitlin. You are so right! I agree with Alan Ross, you deserve an award
for this, and I hope this gets passed around for a wide readership.
Antonio Costa , November 19, 2019 at 15:14
When elected POTUS you are elected, no matter the campaign rhetoric, to take the reins of
the imperial empire.
Trump did that willingly, in fact to a fault given his "big mouth". He's no more nor less
dangerous than his predecessors. And like them, his is a mass of rhetorical contradictions.
Policy is all that should really matters. It is our only means of identifying some truth.
Trump knows what most here know regarding US invasions and assassinations. What he thinks
about any leader is anyone's guess (including his). For him it's all deal making as if it's
his private Trump Towers Enterprises. But in the end he's playing the chief gangsta role of
his like. (If you've ever listened to Sinatra at the Sands (the full concert), you'll hear
how Trump has mimicked the popular gangsta singer to the last "love ya baby ").
The media is not free. It is an arm of the national security state, with occasional
outages of truth telling, all the more to tell the big lies. It's purpose is to pacify and
repress any rebellions. Since the end of Vietnam it has succeeded. And here we are, never
knowing truth from lie. (I think of Obama as deceitful to the max, while Trump just tells
transparent lies so you don't know when he's actually telling a profound truth.)
"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to
believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people
from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally
important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the
mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the
State."
-- Joseph Goebbels (was a German Nazi politician and Reich Minister of Propaganda of Nazi
Germany from 1933 to 1945)
Mark Thomason , November 19, 2019 at 14:22
We can go one step further than to say that Trump was reckless toward Russia, "with zero
resistance from either party."
Both parties demanded it. They approved it as "Presidential" whenever he did it, and
attacked him for any effort to be less reckless. They'd done the same to Obama, but Trump
proved weaker and more malleable.
Jeff Harrison , November 19, 2019 at 14:14
Verra nice peroration. I have two objections. One, I doubt that the people of the Donbass
are Russian backed in the same sense that the "moderate" rebel scum in Syria is US backed
with weapons, intelligence, and training but the people of the Donbass are ethnic Russians.
With a steady stream of anti-Russian legislation coming out of Kiev, I imagine they're
looking for an out. Putin is trying to get it for them without starting a war with Ukraine.
The real question that Washington has yet to address is what are they going to do if the
people of Ukraine notice that since they signed on to the neo-liberal dictates of Washington
and Brussels they've become the poorest nation in Europe. I know that there are a number of
Ukrainians who think wistfully of the days when they were part of Mother Russia. But you
never know, the CIA is notorious for its subversion and the Ukrainians might prove to be
spectacularly stupid. After all, they weren't doing badly until they let the US and EU foment
a coup for them.
And, two, "We should not be rolling the dice on this. This is very, very wrong, and the
U.S. and Russia should stop and establish detente immediately." While I agree with the
sentiment, don't bring Russia into this. Everything that Russia has done has been a reaction
to what is usually an American violation of international law. Putin has been very clear that
he wants to back off this cold war but he has also been very clear that we started it and
we're going to have to be the ones to start backing off.
David Hamilton , November 20, 2019 at 02:11
I absolutely agree with your number two reaction to Caitlin's suggestion that Russia and
the U.S. should stop it and establish detente immediately. Everything Russia's leadership is
doing is a reaction to American imperial dares to defy their law violations. They exhibit
extreme and principled restraint to the Orwellian madness emanating from this place.
I think it is important that this be understood. Russians have been used and abused once
before by American largesse in the form of Clinton's puppet's assistance in the rape of the
former Soviet Union by the Harvard-sponsored project. That was the one during the nineties
that privatized national industries and created a dozen neoliberal oligarchs. The cost was a
huge increase in death rate that lowered life expectancy into the 50's from 70 years I think.
Cynical foreign policy, isn't it?
Lois Gagnon , November 19, 2019 at 13:16
Anyone who has not read Orwell's 1984 should do so sooner rather than later. The official
control of narrative in the novel is what we are presently drowning in. To watch it work so
spectacularly is beyond depressing.
Many thanks to Caitlin Johnstone, Consortium News and all the others pushing back against
this system of perception management. I keep repeating it because it rings true. It's like
waking up in the Twilight Zone.
John Neal Spangler , November 19, 2019 at 12:44
She is right. CNN. MSNBC, NYT, and Wapo totally irresponsible. Fox not much better. So
many anti-Russian bigots in US
Jimmy gates , November 19, 2019 at 12:37
Thank you Caitlin. The neoliberals and neocons both desperately want a greatly intensified
cold war with Russia, but want it started by Trump ( because he is personally an
outsider).
This gives the Democrat and Republican donors contracts for the war machine. Ever since
Clinton administration moved NATO to the Russian border, the process has worked for the
oligarchs who control all US policies, foreign and domestic.
The complete corruption of Western MSM is the reason many of us regularly read Caitlin and
Consortium, all desperately trying to get some sort of a reality-check in an otherwise
"Orwellian" media environment.
For anyone who has been waiting for the publication of reporter Udo Ulfkotte's best
selling book (in Germany), a book based on his experience as a well respected journalist
whose reporting was completely compromised by Western intelligence services and business
interests, it is finally available in an English language edition. The English language
edition has been quite obviously suppressed for the last several years and the book was
published in 9 languages BEFORE this English edition became available. It is a book that is
well worth reading to better understand why literally NOTHING written by MSM should be
believed at face value, ever:
See:
I would urge anyone interested in buying this book to get it directly from the publisher-
Progressive Press. Amazon and other mega monopolies are a big part of our problems. Take the
time to make a few extra clicks and boycott Jeff Bezos.
Noah Way , November 19, 2019 at 10:58
The simple truth here is that in regard to the military (read 'military complex', which
includes the deep state and shadow government [intelligence agencies] every president is a
puppet. Nobel Peace Prize winner oBOMBa bombed 7 countries, overthrew Ukraine's democratic
government, invaded Syria, armed terrorists as proxy armies, authorized drone assassinations,
and bombed a Nobel Peace Prize winner.
The last president to resist the military complex? JFK
Caitlin Johnstone's list points to growing tensions with Russia. Failure of the political
and media establishment to see this makes the task of avoiding world war three all the more
difficult. In the West the end of the Cold War was seen as the dawn of peace. But the Cold
War was the peace, a post-world war environment: we are now in a pre-world war
environment.
Jimmy gates , November 19, 2019 at 12:45
The Democratic Party members have not " missed" anything that Trump has done. They will
not impeach him on those grounds, because they too are guilty of complicity in those war
crimes.
As Pelosi said regarding impeaching GWB for the torture program or invasion of Iraq and
Afghanistan " it's off the table". Because she was complicit.
Lois Gagnon , November 19, 2019 at 13:23
Russia did not illegally annex Crimea. A referendum was held and 90% of the voters voted
to rejoin Russia. Most people in Crimea are ethnic Russians and speak Russian. They were
understandably scared to death of what their fate would be under the rule of the fascists the
US installed in Ukraine.
And frankly, Russia had every right to protect its only warm water port in Sevastopol that
would have been taken over by NATO if Crimea had remained part of Ukraine. Too many Americans
have been indoctrinated in the belief that Russia has no legitimate self interest to
defend.
michael , November 19, 2019 at 18:22
In addition to what Lois Gagnon points out, you have to realize that the re-patriation of
Crimea to Russia in March 2014 was the direct result of Obama, Biden, Nuland et al
overthrowing the democratically elected President of Ukraine, Yanukovych, in the Maidan coup
in February, 2014, and replacing him with a neoNAZI regime. Russian speech was outlawed,
which has been the language of the majority of Crimea since Catherine the Great.
The coup in Ukraine was a major provocation to Russia, but was also a repeat of the
Americans' rape and pillaging of Russia under Yeltsin, Clinton's puppet. The per capita
median income of Ukrainians has dropped in half from 2013, despite pumping $billions in from
the US.
Jeff G. , November 19, 2019 at 20:25
Crimeans have an absolute right of self-determination as a fundamental human right under
established international law, just as the Kosovars did when we were supporting the breakup
of Serbia when Clinton was president. Ethnic Russians voted in an overwhelming majority in a
free and fair plebiscite to rejoin Russia, which they had been part of for centuries, because
the neo-Nazi US coup government allied with Azov battalions in Kyiv terrified them and they
wanted nothing further to do with them. Crimea had every right to decide. Russia did nothing
to interfere, not a bullet was fired. Russia's troops were already stationed in Crimea by
treaty and did not invade. Russia warned NATO against the Kosovo precedent that it would come
back to bite them someday, and it was ignored. NATO is unhappy because it was denied an
illegitimate geostrategic advantage they thought they would gain. Crimea is happy, so what's
the problem?
DH Fabian , November 19, 2019 at 21:08
"We," who? Regardless, the issues you raise can't be understood outside of their
historical context, and Americans never try to understand the world within that historical
context.
anon , November 19, 2019 at 22:54
Crimea was part of Russia for roughly 200 years before the USSR premier (Kruschev?) gave
it to Ukraine, although its inhabitants were nearly all of Russian heritage and language,
like E Ukraine. So not surprising that they wanted to go back to being part of Russia.
dean 1000 , November 20, 2019 at 19:26
Couldn't agree more Lois Gagnon. Washington did an illegal coup. Russia did a legal
annexation.
btw – The Autonomous Republic of Sevastopol on SW Crimea is no longer the only
ice-free port of the Russian Navy. Kaliningrad (on the Baltic sea) has been part of Russia
since 1945. Its deep ice-free harbor is the home port of Russia's Baltic fleet according to
the 2012 world book DVD.
Good one Caitlin. Again
jdd , November 19, 2019 at 09:51
This article properly puts to rest the absurd notion that President Trump is a "tool of
Putin, " and correctly notes that it has created a potentially disastrous situation.
However,
let's put the blame squarely where it belongs: on the Anglo/American led forces arrayed
against Trump from the moment he announced his intention to run on a platform of "getting
along" with Russia and joining with Putin to defeat ISIS.
Failing impeachment, from the
attempts by the Clinton Campaign, to the Congressional sanctions on Russia, to sabotage of
Syria withdrawal to the Mueller hoax, to the State Dept hawks protests on Ukraine, the effort
to prevent Trump from following through on his campaign promise has been the primary goal of
the intelligence community. It is instructive to note that the phone call that has led to the
current impeachment inquiry was made on July 26, the day following Robert Mueller's clownish
testimony before Congress, effectively ending that line of impeachment.
Nick , November 19, 2019 at 16:50
Also note that although the phone call was made in July, nothing was said about it until
after John Bolton was fired in September, 2 months later.
Alan Ross , November 19, 2019 at 09:47
This article alone deserves an award for public service. And in a more sensibly run world
Caitlin Johnstone would have gotten at least fifty such awards for past articles.
"... "In direct contravention of U.S. interests" says the NBC and quotes a member of the permanent state who declares "it is clearly in our national interest" to give weapons to Ukraine. ..."
"... But is that really in the national U.S. interest? Who defined it as such? ..."
"... And that's where the policy community and I part company. It is the president, not the bureaucracy, who was elected by the American people. That puts him -- not the National Security Council, the State Department, the intelligence community, the military, and their assorted subject-matter experts -- in charge of making policy. If we're to remain a constitutional republic, that's how it has to stay. ..."
"... The constitution does not empower the "U.S. government policy community", nor "the administration", nor the "consensus view of the interagency" and certainly not one Lt.Col. Vindman to define the strategic interests of the United States and its foreign policy. It is the duly elected president who does that. ..."
"... Mr. Kolomoisky, widely seen as Ukraine's most powerful figure outside government, given his role as the patron of the recently elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, has experienced a remarkable change of heart: It is time, he said, for Ukraine to give up on the West and turn back toward Russia. ..."
"... "They're stronger anyway. We have to improve our relations," he said, comparing Russia's power to that of Ukraine. "People want peace, a good life, they don't want to be at war. And you" -- America -- "are forcing us to be at war , and not even giving us the money for it." ..."
"... Mr. Kolomoisky [..] told The Times in a profanity-laced discussion, the West has failed Ukraine, not providing enough money or sufficiently opening its markets. ..."
"... Instead, he said, the United States is simply using Ukraine to try to weaken its geopolitical rival. "War against Russia," he said, "to the last Ukrainian." Rebuilding ties with Russia has become necessary for Ukraine's economic survival, Mr. Kolomoisky argued. He predicted that the trauma of war will pass. ..."
"... Kolomoisky's interview is obviously a trial balloon for the policies Zelensky wants to pursue. He has, like Trump, campaigned on working for better relations with Russia. He received nearly 73% of all votes. ..."
"... Ambassador Taylor and the other participants of yesterday's clown show would certainly "mess it up and get in the way" if Zelensky openly pursues the policy he promised to his voters. They are joined in this with the west-Ukrainian fascists they have used to arrange the Maidan coup: ..."
"... Only some 20% of the Ukrainians are in favour of continuing the war against the eastern separatists who Russia supports. During the presidential election Poroshenko received just 25% of the votes. His party European Solidarity won 8.1% of the parliamentary election. Voice won 5.8%. ..."
"... on Yovanovitch, She added: "If our chief representative is kneecapped, it limits our effectiveness to safeguard the vital national security interests of the United States." ..."
"... She wasn't fired, she was kneecapped, and Ukraine is a US vital national security interest, especially after it installed a new government with neo-fascism support.. . .Kneecapping is a form of malicious wounding, often as torture, in which the victim is injured in the knee ..."
NBC News
is not impressed by the first day of the Democrats' impeachment circus. But it fails to
note what the conflict is really about:
It was substantive, but it wasn't dramatic.
In the reserved manner of veteran diplomats with Harvard degrees, Bill Taylor and George
Kent opened the public phase of the House impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump on
Wednesday by bearing witness to a scheme they described as not only wildly unorthodox but
also in direct contravention of U.S. interests.
"It is clearly in our national interest to deter further Russian aggression," Taylor, the
acting U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and a decorated Vietnam War veteran, said in explaining why
Trump's decision to withhold congressionally appropriated aid to the most immediate target of
Russian expansionism didn't align with U.S. policy.
But at a time when Democrats are simultaneously eager to influence public opinion in favor
of ousting the president and quietly apprehensive that their hearings could stall or
backfire, the first round felt more like the dress rehearsal for a serious one-act play than
the opening night of a hit Broadway musical.
"In direct contravention of U.S. interests" says the NBC and quotes a member of the
permanent state who declares "it is clearly in our national interest" to give weapons to
Ukraine.
But is that really in the national U.S. interest? Who defined it as such?
President Obama was against giving weapons to Ukraine and never transferred any to Ukraine
despite pressure from certain circles. Was Obama's decision against U.S. national interest?
Where are the Democrats or deep state members accusing him of that?
Which brings us to the really critical point of the whole issue. Who defines what is in the
"national interest" with regards to foreign policy? Here is a point where for once I agree with
the right-wingers at the National Review where Andrew McCarthy writes :
[O]n the critical matter of America's interests in the Russia/Ukraine dynamic, I think the
policy community is right, and President Trump is wrong. If I were president, while I would
resist gratuitous provocations, I would not publicly associate myself with the delusion that
stable friendship is possible (or, frankly, desirable) with Putin's anti-American
dictatorship, which runs its country like a Mafia family and is acting on its revanchist
ambitions.
But you see, much like the policy community, I am not president. Donald Trump is.
And that's where the policy community and I part company. It is the president, not the
bureaucracy, who was elected by the American people. That puts him -- not the National
Security Council, the State Department, the intelligence community, the military, and their
assorted subject-matter experts -- in charge of making policy. If we're to remain a
constitutional republic, that's how it has to stay.
The U.S.
constitution "empowers the President of the United States to propose and chiefly
negotiate agreements between the United States and other countries."
The constitution does not empower the "U.S. government policy community", nor "the
administration", nor the "consensus view of the interagency" and certainly not one Lt.Col.
Vindman to define the strategic interests of the United States and its foreign policy. It is
the duly elected president who does that.
The president does not like how the 'American policy' on Russia was built. He rightly
believes that he was elected to change it. He had stated his opinion on Russia during his
campaign and won the election. It is not 'malign influence' that makes him try to have good
relations with Russia. It is his own conviction and legitimized by the voters.
...
[I]t is the president who sets the policies. The drones around him who serve "at his
pleasure" are there to implement them.
There is another point that has to be made about the NBC's assertions. It is not in
the interest of Ukraine to be a proxy for U.S. deep state antagonism towards Russia. Robber
baron Igor Kolomoisky, who after the Maidan coup
had financed the west-Ukrainian fascists who fought against east-Ukraine, says so directly in
his
recent NYT interview :
Mr. Kolomoisky, widely seen as Ukraine's most powerful figure outside government, given his
role as the patron of the recently elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, has experienced a
remarkable change of heart: It is time, he said, for Ukraine to give up on the West and turn
back toward Russia.
"They're stronger anyway. We have to improve our relations," he said, comparing Russia's
power to that of Ukraine. "People want peace, a good life, they don't want to be at war. And
you" -- America -- "are forcing us to be at war , and not even giving us the money for
it."
... Mr. Kolomoisky [..] told The Times in a profanity-laced discussion, the West has failed
Ukraine, not providing enough money or sufficiently opening its markets.
Instead, he said, the United States is simply using Ukraine to try to weaken its
geopolitical rival. "War against Russia," he said, "to the last Ukrainian." Rebuilding ties
with Russia has become necessary for Ukraine's economic survival, Mr. Kolomoisky argued. He
predicted that the trauma of war will pass.
...
Mr. Kolomoisky said he was feverishly working out how to end the war, but he refused to
divulge details because the Americans "will mess it up and get in the way."
Kolomoisky's interview is obviously a trial balloon for the policies Zelensky wants to
pursue. He has, like Trump, campaigned on working for better relations with Russia. He received
nearly 73% of all votes.
Ambassador Taylor and the other participants of yesterday's clown show would certainly "mess
it up and get in the way" if Zelensky openly pursues the policy he promised to his voters. They
are joined in this
with the west-Ukrainian fascists they have used to arrange the Maidan coup:
Zelenskiy's decision in early October to accept talks with Russia on the future of eastern
Ukraine resulted in an outcry from a relatively small but very vocal minority of Ukrainians
opposed to any deal-making with Russia. The protests were relatively short-lived, but
prospects for a negotiated end to the war in the eastern Donbas region became more remote in
light of this domestic opposition.
...
The supporters for war with Russia are ex-president Poroshenko and two parliamentary
factions, European Solidarity and Voice, whose supporters are predominantly located in
western Ukraine. Crucially, however, they can also rely on right-wing paramilitary groups
composed of veterans from the hottest phase of the war in Donbas in 2014-5.
Only some 20% of the Ukrainians are in favour of continuing the war against the eastern
separatists who Russia supports. During the presidential election Poroshenko received just 25%
of the votes. His party European Solidarity won 8.1% of the parliamentary election. Voice won
5.8%.
By pursuing further conflict with Russia the deep state of the United States wants to ignore
the wishes not only of the U.S. voters but also those of the Ukrainian electorate. That
undemocratic mindset is another point that unites them with the Ukrainian fascists.
Zelensky should ignore the warmongers in the U.S. embassy in Kiev and sue for immediate
peace with Russia. (He should also investigate
Biden's undue influence .) Reengaging with Russia is also the easiest and most efficient
step the Ukraine can take to lift its desolate economy.
It is in the national interest of both, the Ukraine and the United States.
Posted by b on November 14, 2019 at 18:23 UTC |
Permalink
next page " agree with mccarthy about who conducts foreign policy, disagree about who
the aggressor is; it's the USA, trying to weaken Russia, which is the aggressor.
thanks b... typo - immediate piece with Russia - 'peace' is the spelling here...
the comments from Kolomoisky in the recent nyt interview are very telling.. aside from
being a first rate kleptomaniac who will willingly play both sides if he can profit from it,
he is also speaking a moment of truth..for him Ukraine is available to the highest bidder...
he could give a rats ass about Ukraine or the people... but still, it is refreshing that the
NYT published his comments in this regard..
the quote "the Americans "will mess it up and get in the way." is very true... it was true
before kolomisky picked a side too.. this guy is very shrewd.. i wonder if his own country is
able to see thru him?
national interest.... yes, trump gets to decide and he won on the idea of having closer
relations with russia, but the cia-msm has been lambasting him and anyone else associated
with him since before the election over the clinton e mails... they have painted a scenario
that it is all russias fault and have been relentless in this portrayal... hoping trump is
going to turn this around is like hoping someone is going to turn the titanic around from
hitting a giant iceberg... the usa is too far gone and will be hitting the iceberg.. they are
in fact...
From NYT about Kolomo???? (spelling in English is highly variable)
George D. Kent, a senior State Department official, said he had told Mr. Zelensky that his
willingness to break with Mr. Kolomoisky -- "somebody who had such a bad reputation" -- would
be a litmus test for his independence. [If is good to be independent, i.e. to do what we
want.]
And William Taylor, the acting ambassador in Kiev, said he had warned Mr. Zelensky: "He,
Mr. Kolomoisky, is increasing his influence in your government, which could cause you to
fail." [La Paz is a fresh reminder for Kiev?]
Well the thing about Zelensky is he's still there, and he is making changes in Donbass.
Kolomoisky was interested in the fracked gas in Donbass, the completion of NordStream II
has made a mess of that idea. It is good that he has seen the light, as it means Zelensky
will have support in his attempts to adapt to reality. But Kolomoisky is still a crook no
doubt.
My immediate reaction was that Kolomoisky realises he has to act - the Ukrainian oligarchs
have got too close to America. I agree with James that he is a extremely clever man.
Ukraine's traditional business is playing both ends against the middle and sending the
proceeds to Switzerland (or the Caribbean in Porosyonok's case). Since 1990 a few of these
robber barons have made a very good business winding up the west against Russia, it could go
on ever - why spoil it by lifting the rock and seeing all the insects scurrying around in the
light?
Another rock that has been lifted is in Washington, where the khokhol diaspora are
desperately trying to get Uncle Sam to right the wrongs of a century ago.
"Deep state" is misleading and actually a false construction.
There is an Imperial State (the ruling faction)which consists of imperial apparatchiks
placed in every key position in government.
There is one and only one Western Empire and its deep state spreads throughout Western
governments and society. They are the owners oif the world and they run the world they
own.
... @ b -- "Only some 20% of the Ukrainians favor to continue the war against the eastern
separatists who Russia supports."
The are not 'separatists', but rather Ukrainians who want to stay in a federated Ukraine
as 'provinces' with powers to pass their regional laws, similar to those in Canada.
The segment of empire in the US that are against Russia act so because it was Russia that
stymied them in Syria and continues to be in their way of expanding the control from that
part of empire...the US segment.
I still believe that the global private finance core segment of empire is behind Trump and
throwing America(ns) under the bus as the world turns more multilateral. The cult of global
private finance intends on still having some overarching super-national role in the new
multilateral world and holding debt guns to everyones heads to make it ongoing.
I don't believe that strategy will work but as long as they can be fronted by a MAD player
of some sort (Occupied Palestine comes to mind) they can be bully players in international
matters.
As the world economies grind to a "halt" there will be lots of pressure everywhere and
very little clarity about the key civilization war over public/private finance, IMO
For a military dictatorship, diplomacy is the continuation of war by other means. The US has
been at war with Russia since the right-wing coup at the Democratic convention of 1944. All
presidents have been servants of the military, which includes the police/intel/security
apparatus; the few who did not entirely accept their figurehead role were "dealt with."
Kennedy, Nixon, Carter and now Trump. The Washington permanent state bureaucrats are shocked
and understandably offended; they have after all, been running US foreign policy for 75
years!
Wow! The depth of delusion on display is as breathtaking as its complete projection of the
intentions and actions of the Evil Outlaw US Empire! Oh so many saying I'm displaying four
fingers instead of two. Too bad there isn't a padded cell big enough to contain all the
lunatics. I recall the pre- and post-coup discussions from 2014--that Russia was going to
make NATO own Ukraine until it was forced to concede it has no business being there; that
Russia would teach the would-be leaders of Ukraine a serious lesson in where their national
interests lay. NATO is ready to cede and the lesson's been learned.
IMO, two referendums must be held. The first within Russia: Will you accept portions of
Ukraine wanting to merge with Russia: Yes/No? Second to be given within Ukraine provided Yes
wins in #1: Do you wish to join Russia or remain in Ukraine? IMO, this is a very longstanding
unresolved issue of consequence for the people involved. The political leaders of Russia and
Ukraine might both be against such a vote, but IMO that merely kicks the can further down the
road and opens the door for more mischief making by the Evil Outlaw US Empire. Assuming a Yes
from Russia and some from Ukraine, a strategic threat to Russia and Europe would be
mitigated. Additional questions about those parts of Ukraine not wanting to join Russia could
be solved via additional referenda in the Ukraine and neighboring nations that might prove
willing to absorb the remnants and their people. Such action would of course negate the Minsk
Agreements.
Given the ideological passions of those living in Western and Northern Ukraine, I don't
see any hope for the continuation of the Ukrainian state as currently arranged, thus the
proposed referenda. However, if Russia says Nyet, then Minsk must be implemented.
"Democracy" is not about letting the people as a whole have a say in how the country is
governed. That would be fascist, and racist, and populist, and LITERALLY HITLER. Letting the
people decide on things like foreign policy, is literally anti-democratic.
No, "Democracy" is about privatizing power and socializing responsibility. The elites get
to set the policy, but the public at large gets to take responsibility when things go wrong.
Because you see, we are a "Democracy."
Breaking off long established economic and cultural ties with a large neighbouring country,
virtually overnight, is a rash act, and certain to create dislocation and hardship. The
craziness of the idea was only achievable through the traumatizing psy-op of the sniper
event, leading directly to the coup and the state of war. The EU and the US were clearly
malevolent in orchestrating the Association agreement with its ridiculous terms and the
corresponding Maidan pressures.
The fools in Hong Kong, after protester-sponsored screenings of the World On Fire
documentary, were actually quoted as presuming the Maidan protests had "won" and expressed
their hopes that they too could "win". Good luck to them.
Kolomoisky and Zelensky know what needs to be done, but they fear the blood that will flow
with Nazi-Banderist scum! Zelinski's balls are not that big, and has no options left after
compromising his position from day one. Who will make the first move, I fear not him? Russia
has time, and patience, which is sorely lacking in the west who feel they have to push the
envelope.
The Minsk II protocol was agreed to on 12 February 2015 by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia,
France, and Germany, It included provisions for a halt in the fighting, the withdrawal of
foreign forces, new constitution to allow special status for Donbass, and election in Donbass
for local self governance. Control of the present border of Ukraine would be restored to the
Ukraine government. Donbass would continue to be in Ukraine with some autonomy here (scroll down).
There are many such autonomous zones in the world, and in Europe, seen here .
The problem in Ukraine is that the neo-Nazi factions promoted by the US don't want to see a
resolution, and will fight it with US support.
Kolomoysky is obviously a master thief and general scumbag...but he is no fool...
I think the writing on the wall became obvious with the Nordstream 2 finalization, where,
it is noted, Denmark came in just under the wire in terms of not disrupting the
timetable...
Obviously the interests of German business have prevailed...and rightly so in this
case...
And what of the famous EU line about 'protecting' Ukraine as a gas transit
corridor...?
LOLOLOL...that is in the same category of nothingburger as the EU noises about 'alternate
payment' mechanisms for trade with Iran...
As soon as the Denmark story broke, Gazprom and Russian energy analysts talked openly
about the tiny volumes that Ukraine could expect to see transiting its territory...as part of
a new agreement to replace the one that has expired...
It works out to a small fraction of the several billion dollars in transit fees the
Ukraine was getting...
Also considering that the IMF appears to be finally shutting off the tap of loans to this
failed gangster state...and that the promises from the EU in 2013 were just so much fairy
tales...hard-nosed operators like Kolomoysky are recalculating...
The chaos and national ruin has really cost these gangster capitalists nothing [in fact
they have profited wildly]...so it is easy for them to reverse course and come begging back
to Russia...
Bryan MacDonald has a good piece about this today in RT...
So, here we are, almost six years since the first "EuroMaidan" protests in Kiev, and
Ukraine's most prominent oligarch has finally voiced the unmentionable: the project has
failed.
As for Kolomoysky...like Trump, there is something to like about dirtballs who speak their
minds openly...LOL
Quite a turnaround by Kolomoisky. Wasn't he once caught on a tapped phone call admitting
while chuckling about Ukrainian complicity in shooting down MH-17? i.e. NOT Donbas rebels and
NOT Russia.
@12 karlof1... a referendum... as if the usa would agree to that, lol.... look how they
processed the one in crimea...
@18 flankerbandit... last line is true, but it pales in relation to the ugliness these 2
exhibit 99% of the time, although the 1% when they don't it's refreshing! ukraine will
continue to be used as a tool by the west..
forget about any referendum.. that makes too much sense and won't be allowed..
Nordstream 2 will come online in less than 2 months and the Ukrainian gas exports at that
time will cease (I.e. no oil for the Oligarchs to steal), no matter what the US says they
can't replace the Russian oil exports in terms of money & support to Ukraine, so the
Oligarchs are now positioning themselves to abandon the US in order for the Russians to keep
even a tiny bit of oil flowing into their pockets
It's a tough balancing act, being a Ukrainian oligarch. For two decades they stole what they
could from the Ukraine (and from perverting the various sweetheart deals Russia was
providing). Once the industry and energy money was stripped, and Russia started closing the
spigots, they managed to get the West to pump in ungodly amounts of cash so long as they
would agree to talk mean about Russia, and didn't mind the US machine taking its cut of the
loot.
But now the Ukrainian thieves are beginning to realize that the Western thieves are going
to steal the very ground from under their feet, so there will be no more Ukraine to steal
from. That's not a very good business model. Plus they're no doubt seeing how the US treats
its partners in crime in Syria and elsewhere, and realize they could easily find themselves
the next meal for the US beast. Pretty easy to see why the smarter ones are getting
nervous.
they need to make peace with Russia or they will be left out in the cold, literally. They
seemed to have previously bought into some insane lie that they'd be a part of the EU and
NATO if theyd do Washington's bidding. The Deep state vastly underestimated Putin's resolve
when it became clear to the Russians that Washington may try and turn Crimea into a NATO port
one day. The game is over. Ukraine needs to find a way forward now for itself or it will be a
failed state in the near future. It's clear Merkel and Europe want no part of this headache
I don't think Russians want to 'own' any part of Ukraine...at least that is the nearly
unanimous opinion of my own contacts and colleagues in Russia...so I don't think any
referenda will be on the table...
What I do think is possible is what Yanukovich and Russia agreed to in terms of a trade
and economic deal...which was a lot more practical [not to mention generous] than the EU
'either or' nonsense...
Ukraine has run itself into the ground, literally...now they are selling vast tracts of
agricultural land to huge Euro agribusiness concerns...literally dispossessing themselves of
their own food security...
At the time of the Soviet dissolution, Ukraine had the highest living standards and some
of the world's prime industry and technology...including for instance the Yuzhnoye design
bureau [rocket engines and spacecraft] and many more such cutting edge aerospace
concerns...
For years these crucial enterprises were able to keep going due to the Russian
market...that all ended in 2014 [and in fact was tapering off even before due to the massive
corruption]...
Now the Chinese are looking to scoop up these gems at firesale prices...
It is really quite unbelievable that the nutcases in the Ukraine would be willing to cut
off their own arm just to bleed on Russia's shirt...
Why did the Ukraine never recover from the gangster capitalism like Russia did...because
no Putin ever came along to reign in the oligarchy...[It could be argued Putin hasn't done
nearly enough in this regard].
The Ukraine is actually a preview of what we can expect to see in our own future...as the
unleashed oligarchy similarly runs everything into the ground in order to extract maximal
wealth for a parasite elite...already we are nothing but a Ponzi Scheme on the verge of
toppling...
Kolomoisky is talking his book and helping USA to make the case that Nordstream is a NATO
security issue. To pretend that he's serious about a rapproachment with Russia just plays
into that effort.
And b ignores my comment on the prior thread that he references (about Trump being
Constitutionally charged with foreign policy). Repeating: the "Imperial Presidency" has flung
off Constitutional checks and balances by circumventing the need to get Congressional
approval for spending. Wars (like Syria) are now be funded by Gulf Monarchies, black ops, and
black budgets.
While for practical reasons the Executive Branch of USA government has the power to
negotiate treaties and manage foreign relations, Constitutionally he does so for the
sovereign (the American people) and his efforts are subject to review and approval of the
people's representatives via the power of the purse.
Ignoring how the "Imperial Presidency" has usurped power leads to faulty analysis that
supports that power grab.
Ukrainegate IS a farce, but for other reasons. Chief among them being the inherent fakery
of 'managed democracy' which manifests as kayfabe.
There is an Imperial State (the ruling faction)which consists of imperial apparatchiks
placed in every key position in government.
There is one and only one Western Empire and its deep state spreads throughout Western
governments and society. They are the owners of the world and they run the world they
own.
Nicely put:- that is the reality. Thanks b for your intrepid reports.
Paul Craig Roberts has a deeply aggrieved rant at zero hedge if barflies want a chuckle.
What a shitshow.
Crimea?
It has been part of Russia about as long as the USA has been a country.
9 out of 10 residents are of Russian origin, and Russian is the spoken language.
I guess it could be returned to the 10%-- but out of fairness, we must turn the USA over to
its original occupants.
If you live in the USA, get your ass ready to leave.
One of the problems that the anti-nazis face in Ukraine is that there are occupying armies in
the country. Armies which cannot be trusted to obey instructions which are not agreed upon by
NATO warmongers.
One such army is Canadian, commanded I believe by a descendant of the Ukrainian SS refugees
and reporting to the Foreign Minister in Ottawa, a Russophobe with a family background of
nazi collaboration.
The actual political situation is much more delicate than media reports suggest: what are
called elections feature, in the Washington approved fashion, the banning of socialist and
communist candidates. Bans which are enforced by a combination of fascist commanded police
forces and, even less responsible, private nazi militias. Opponents of the Maidan regime are
driven into exile, jailed or murdered.
Those who wonder as Jackrabbit, in a rare essay into rationality, does above, about the
nature of the US Constitution after decades of the erosion of checks and balances thanks to
the Imperial Presidency, will recognise that a dialectic is at work here. Washington's
support for fascism abroad has instituted fascism at home which has led in turn to the
installation of fascist regimes abroad, not just occasionally but routinely. Wherever the US
intervenes it leaves a fascist regime, in which socialists are banned and persecuted, behind
it.
And what this means is that, among other things, the ability of the population to effect
political change is cancelled: there is no way that the people of Ukraine can decide what
they want because the decisions have been taken for them, in weird cult like gatherings of SS
worshiping Bandera supporters in Toronto and Chicago. It is no accident that most of the
'Ukrainians' being wheeled out by the Democrats to testify against Trump are actually greedy
expatriates who have never really lived in Ukraine.
There was a moment, not long ago, when it looked as if the Minsk accords promised a path to
peace and reconciliation. Unfortunately the plain people of Ukraine, the poorest in Europe
though living in one of the richest countries, Washington, Ottawa and NATO didn't like the
sound of Minsk. Nor did the fascists in the Baltic states and Poland, for whom, for
centuries, Ukraine has been a cow to milk, its people slaves to be exploited and its rich
resources too tempting to ignore.
As Thomas Jefferson explained the President's role in foreign affairs in 1790, and the lack
of advisors' policy making decisions: ''as the President was the only channel of
communication between the United States and foreign nations, it was from him alone 'that
foreign nations or their agents are to learn what is or has been the will of the nation';
that whatever he communicated as such, they had a right and were bound to consider 'as the
expression of the nation'; and that no foreign agent could be 'allowed to question it,' or
'to interpose between him and any other branch of government, under the pretext of either's
transgressing their functions.' Mr. Jefferson therefore declined to enter into any discussion
of the question as to whether it belonged to the President under the Constitution to admit or
exclude foreign agents. 'I inform you of the fact,' he said, 'by authority from the
President.'
Might also be worth yesterdays hero's asking if dear Mr Kolomoisky, joint Uki/Israeli
national, took a part in authorising the shoot down of MH17 as a news cover for Operation
Protective Edge. Heave ho zionist USA ....et al.
1.The decisions to with hold and release aid have nothing to do with the President making
foreign policy but with his campaign. Saying it was about foreign policy is a damned lie.
2.Trump as president is supposed to lead foreign policy, which means actually setting a
policy. Military aid to Ukraine, yes, except no, except yes, personal handling without asking
anybody with experience how to achieve the national goal desired, national agenda kept secret
from the people who have to carry it out, abuse of officials, demands for dubiously legal
actions without rationale...Saying it was about the president's executive role is a damned
lie.
3.Trump has not made even a tweet that questions US support for fascists. That not even a
issue for Trump. Saying this is about support for fascism is a damned lie.
4.Kolomoyskiy is a bankroller of fascists. It is not impossible even a billionaire might get
frightened by the genie he's let out of the bottle, even if he's Jewish and rich enough to
run away. But actually undoing the fascist regime means taming the paramilitaries and this is
not even on the horizon. Given the rivalry between Poroshenko and Kolomoyskiy it's not even
certain it's a real change of heart or just soothing words for the non-fascist people. Nor is
it even clear the Zelensky will follow even the Steinmeier formula. If he does, good, but
until something actually happens? Saying it's about the antifascist turn is a damned lie.
The only thing that isn't a lie is that Trump was not committing treasons, "merely" a
campaign violation. But then, Clinton never did either. The crybabies who dished it out but
can't take it deserve zero respect, and zero time.
Curious to know how Kolomoisky is working "feverishly" to end the war in the Donbass region.
Wonder if he is planning to come clean on what he knows of the Malaysia Airlines MH17
shootdown and crash in an area not far from Slavyansk and near where his Privat Group's
subsidiary company Burisma Holdings holds a licence to drill for oil and natural gas. What
does he know about Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk air traffic control personnel's direction to MH17
to fly at 10,000 metres in the warzone and not an extra 1,000 metres above as the flight crew
had requested? He had been governor of Dnepropetrovsk region at the time.
Somewhere I read it alleged that the actual owner of Burisma was or is Kolomoiski.
Anything to this?
And via John Helmer (via Checkpointasia and dances with bears) comes the perspective that
it's not so much Kolomoiski floating trial balloons (though that may also be true) but that K
is being given space in the NYT to build his credentials as the new Borg villain, thereby
making it still harder for Zelensky to reconcile with Russia.
fb @ 25 said;"The Ukraine is actually a preview of what we can expect to see in our own
future...as the unleashed oligarchy similarly runs everything into the ground in order to
extract maximal wealth for a parasite elite...already we are nothing but a Ponzi Scheme on
the verge of toppling..."
Yup, aided and abetted by our current regime, while pretending not to...
@23
"It's a tough balancing act, being a Ukrainian oligarch. For two decades they stole what they
could from the Ukraine (and from perverting the various sweetheart deals Russia was
providing). Once the industry and energy money was stripped, and Russia started closing the
spigots, they managed to get the West to pump in ungodly amounts of cash so long as they
would agree to talk mean about Russia, and didn't mind the US machine taking its cut of the
loot."
This is it in a nutshell. The Russians were fed up with Ukraine stealing gas. Hence, Nord
Stream 2. That was always the plan. Whether the Yanks truly grasped the rationale here
---Russia is cutting off gas to Ukraine, simple---has never been clear to me. Although it is
a fairly simple plot. The Russians had decades of shenanigans with the Ukes and said Basta.
By not overreacting to the Ukrainian-USA freakout and keeping their eyes on the prize (Nord
Stream and disengaging, gas-wise, from Uk), they have managed to reach their goal of getting
Nord Stream 2 online.
Kolomoiski is the bankroller and commander of the Azov Battalion. Has close arrangements with
other paramilitaries. And is the current principal of Burisma. And is Privatbank, the only
bank left in Ukraine. He gets a cut of all the action.
When Trump queries Zelensky, all that Zelensky is thinking is this guy does not know the
score. This guy does not know who's on first. He wants me to investigate the boss? Let him
talk to the boss. And who does Z talk to in D.C.? Pointless getting into detail with
Trump.
Trump has no team. No one in D.C. is on his side. He's unable to finish anything.
1) Say the fantasy happens and the US/Russia become BFFs like US/UK...
- Say hello to the new boss, same as the old boss?
- Tough to answer, many unknowns- Russia may act different once its on top, actors may
derail schemes, Deep State temper tantrum, etc...
In general, governments are the order-providing solution for chaos and problems that only
first existed inside the minds of those seeking power over others.
Kolomoiski is a U.S. asset. His interview with the NYTimes proves it.
His threats are meant to mobilize NATO and Russia haters in general; because Trump and
most of his cadre care nothing for Ukraine.
Does anyone think Russia will give Kolomoiski 100 million dollars? Why was he given an
opportunity to threaten the USA? For no reason? Something else is afoot but Russia still
won't take the bait because they are winning.
Russia is quite happy with the status quo. The war in Ukraine keeps the war against Russia
on a level which is easy to manipulate and therefore geostrategically beneficial. Kolomoiski
will get nothing.
Thank you, b, for that snippet from NY Interview with Kolomoisky . I had glanced the headline
on RT but didn't read it because of RT's usual clumsy writing.
Kolomoiski is taunting the empire: investigate my crimes and
ukraine will seek reconciliation and alliance with russia.
Russia won't fall for it. They want kolomoiski's scalp even
more than the empire. From the statements putin has made, maybe
the only concession russia would accept is the dissolution of
ukraine as a sovereign entity and reintegration with russia, minus galicia.
Putin has remarked that they are not one people but one state. Ukraine
already knows that its domestic industry is only viable in competition
with the eu industrial powerhouses if it is integrated with russia.
What does [Kolomoysky] know about Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk air traffic control
personnel's direction to MH17 to fly at 10,000 metres in the warzone and not an extra 1,000
metres above as the flight crew had requested?
Okay..so an interesting can of worms here...
First is the fact that Kolomoysky was the governor of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast at the
time...
Now as to the flight and Dnipro Radar [the regional air traffic control facility that
controls a very big chunk of airspace over eastern Ukraine]...
First the issue of the airplane cruising altitude...the crew had filed their flight plan
to climb from flight level 330 [33,000 ft] to FL350 after passing a certain waypoint in
eastern Ukraine...
Now the controllers did instruct the crew to go ahead and climb to their planned altitude,
but the crew declined the clearance and opted to stay at FL330...this was done very
likely because the atmospheric conditions at that height were better for fuel economy...
[To be even more specific...the Boeing manual gave an optimum flight altitude of 33,800
ft, but flying eastward you only have odd numbered flight levels to choose from, so the crew
figured they would be better off staying at 33 than climbing to 35...]
BUT...there are a couple of very curious things here...
First is the fact that Dnipro controllers deviated the airplane from its flight
plan just before it went down...ostensibly due to other traffic...
We can see this in the following map, which is what's called a high altitude en route
chart, which is used by pilots to plan and execute their flight...
You will note a couple of things here...the airplane is flying on the L980 airway
[basically a highway in the sky] when it is turned south by controllers to the RND waypoint,
which is in Russian territory...
This is NOT the route filed by the crew...which can be seen here...
They were supposed to continue flying on L980 right to the TAMAK waypoint, which is
visible on the previous chart and is right on the border with Russia...
They would have continued on the A87 airway to their next waypoint in Russia which is
TIKNA...
Now here is the thing...right after they were turned south, they got shot down...
According to the radio transcripts, the crew acknowledged the course change, but did not
object...however, usually these kinds of course changes aren't appreciated on the flight deck
because the crew is trying to minimize wasted time and wasted fuel on course
deviations...
Most times you will just not bother to complain to controllers...but for sure there will
always be chatter between the captain and copilot about being yanked around like that...
No mention is made in the Dutch Safety Board report about such chatter from the cockpit
voice recorder, which I find very odd...
Also odd is the fact that Dnipro ATC primary radar was down, and only the so-called
'secondary' was working which uses the transponder signals from the airplane...
This is very busy airspace because a lot of flights from western Europe to South Asia
traverse this territory...the plan is always to fly what's called a 'great circle route'
which is basically a straight line, if you flattened out the globe...
Plus considering that you have a war going on underneath...it's very unusual to have your
PRIMARY radar inoperable...
This is significant also because military aircraft will not be using transponders and so
will not be visible to the secondary surveillance...
The Russian primary radar did pick up two other aircraft very nearby MH17...but the Dutch
have made some kind of excuse about that data not being in 'raw' form and thus not
usable...
So we see some very suspicious anomalies here...
The Ukrainian authorities did have a NOTAM [notice to airmen] in effect up to FL320
[32,000 ft] so commercial traffic could not fly under that height...but clearly they should
have closed the airspace over the hot conflict area...
They didn't do that...and Kolomoysky was in charge...
The Deep State's view on the members' God given right to make foreign policy decisions (it
must be the God who has give it to them, because the people certainly have not) just reminds
the of the general attitude of the Government's bureaucracy. Give any fartbag a position in
the government and he/she becomes "a prince/princes over the people", give him or her a
monopoly over violence and you got yourself a king/queen. All these police and military kings
& queens milling around and lording over us. "Deep State" is such a totally natural
consequence of the government bureaucracy corrupted by power that it appropriated.
Pillaging taxes from the sheeple (and taking young maidens like Sheriff of
Nottingham/Epstein) could have never ever been enough. Did you seriously think that the Deep
Staters would constrain themselves to only stealing your money, taking your children for
their pleasure and to die in their wars of conquest, and putting you into a totally unsafe
airplanes to die for their profit? Constrain themselves when there is a whole globe out there
to be lorded over, like Bidens over Ukraine? It is the poor people of Ukraine who just have
too much money, thus had to give it through the gas monopoly to the Biden gang, which
selflessly brought them "democracy" at $5B in US taxpayers' expense. Therefore, it is the
Deep State which has been chosen by God, or someone just like that, to make the decisions
about the imperialist/globalist foreign policy and have billions of dollars thrown by the
grateful natives into their own pockets, as consulting fees:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/leaked-bank-records-confirm-burisma-biden-payments-morgan-stanley-account
So far the only clear-cut globalization is that one of crime, which has become
global.
What is the US National Interest b asks? Who defines it as such?
Ome magazine that might know is none other than The National Interest. Hopefully I won't
get attacked for quoting from what seems like a fairly sane article to me....
"The US should consider whom they are giving weapons to. Ukraine is a debt-ridden state
and only five years beyond an extralegal revolution. Should the government collapse again,
then American weapons could end up in the possession of any number of dubious paramilitary
groups.
It wouldn't be the first time. In the 2000s, CIA operatives were forced to repurchase
Stinger missiles that had fallen into the hands of Afghani warlords -- at a markup.
Originally offered to the Mujahideen in the 1980s, the Stingers came to threaten American
forces in the region. Similarly, many weapons provided with US authorization to Libyan rebels
in 2011 ended up in the possession of jihadists."
It's difficult to find clean information on happenings within Ukraine and those involving
Russia. The Ministry of Foreign affairs has this page
dedicated to the "Situation Around Ukraine." Of the three most recent listings,
this one --"Comment by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova on the NATO
Council's visit to Ukraine"--from 1 November is quite important as it deals with the reality
on the ground versus the circus happening thousands of miles away, although it's clear the
delusions in Washington and Brussels are the same and "continue to be guided by the Cold War
logic of exaggerating the nonexistent 'threat from the East' rather than the interests of
pan-European security."
In the
second most recent listing --"Remarks by Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian
Federation to the OSCE Vladimir Zheglov at the OSCE Permanent Council meeting on the
situation in Ukraine and the need to implement the Minsk Agreements, Vienna, October 31,
2019"--the following was noted:
"There's more to it. The odious site Myrotvorets continues to function using servers
located in the United States. The UN has repeatedly stated that this violates the presumption
of innocence and the right to privacy. Recently, Deputy Head of the UN Human Rights
Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Benjamin Moreau, reiterated the recommendation to shut down
this website. A similar demand was made by other representatives of the international
community, including the German government. The problem was brought to the attention of the
European Court of Human Rights. The other day, the representative of Ukraine at the ECHR was
made aware of the groundlessness of the Ukrainian government's excuses saying that it
allegedly 'has no influence' on the above website.
"In closing, recent opinion polls in Ukraine indicate that its residents are expecting the
government to do more to bring peace to Donbas. The path to a settlement is well known, that
is, the full implementation of the Minsk Package of Measures of February 12, 2015, that was
approved by the UN Security Council."
Clearly, Zelensky's government is much like Poroschenko's when it comes to listening to
those who empowered it, the above citation is one of several from the overall report.
The latest report deals with an ongoing case at the International Court of Justice at The
Hague that reveals some of the anti-Russian bias there. It has no bearing on this discussion,
although it does provide evidence of the contextual background against which the entire
affair, including the circus in Washington, operates.
MoA consensus is Minsk backed NATO and its Ukrainian minions into a corner from which
there's only one way out, which is the implementation of the Accords they continue to oppose
to implement despite their promise to do so. Clearly an excellent example of not being
agreement capable that hasn't changed since 2015.
If the Republicans had any brains, they'd turn the Ukrainian aspect of the hearings into
an indictment against Obama/Biden for illegally overthrowing Kiev and trying to obtain their
piece-of-the-action, but then that would be the logical thing to do and thus isn't an option.
The prospect of each day providing similar spectacle is mind numbing as it airs the sordid,
unwashed underwear if the Evil Outlaw US Empire.
I normally do not reply to trolls, but I make an exception for you. Pedo-dollar? Do you have
any more such crap to dilute the valid points discussed here?
i liked what @ 32 tod said - "he's just doing the old Jewish threatening/begging
dance!
"And you are forcing us to be at war, and not even giving us the money for it." Wink!
Wink!"
stating the obvious is one remedy for any possible confusion here..
@54 karlof1... i don't believe trump is allowed to shine any light on the usas illegal
actions as that would be sacrilege to all the americans who see their country in such a
great, exceptional-ist light... how would trumps MAGA concept swallow that? it wouldn't, so
it won't happen...
You are a bit off on that story. NS2 pipeline will increase the capacity not transitioning
via Ukraine and reduce the price banditry by the Ukrainian & US gangs, but it will not
make gas transit via Ukraine unnecessary. The planned switch off of the German nuclear and
coal power plants will gradually increase the German demand for gas, that is the Russian gas
by so much that NS1 and NS2 will not be enough. Primarily, NS2 is a signal to the Ukrainian
& US Democrat gangs that if they try excessive transit fees and stealing of gas again,
that they will be circumvented within a few years by NS 3,4,5 ...
BTW, the globalized pillaging of the population is clearly not an invention of the DNC
crime gang only. For example, the 737Max is a product of primarily Republican activity on
deregulating what should have never been deregulated and subjugation to the Wall Street (aka
financialization). The pillaging of the World is strictly bipartisan, just differently
packaged:
1) R - packaging the deregulation to steal & kill as "freedom" or
2) D - packaging the regime change as responsibility to protect R2P (such regime change and
stuffing of own pockets later).
karlof1 @54 - "Minsk backed NATO and its Ukrainian minions into a corner from which
there's only one way out, which is the implementation of the Accords"
Yes. As you well know, and as we have well discussed, Minsk was in its very essence the
surrender terms dictated to the US by NAF and Russia in return for letting the NATO
contractors go free and secretly out of the Debaltsevo cauldron. Either actually or
poetically, this was the basis. The US lost against NAF. The only way to prevent Donbass
incursion into the rest of Ukraine was to freeze the situation. The US had no choice, and
surrendered.
Out of the heat and fog of warfare came a simple document made of words which, even so,
illustrated perfectly just how elegantly the Kremlin had the entire situation both war-gamed
and peace-gamed. Minsk from that day until forever has locked the Ukraine play into a lost
war of attrition for the US sponsors, with zero gain - except for thieves.
To attempt to parse Ukraine in terms of statecraft is to miss the point that Ukraine can
only be parsed in terms of thievery. This is not cynicism, simply truth.
Now they sell their land because this is all there is left to sell. Kolomoisky proposes
selling the entire country to Russia for $100 billion but not only will Russia not bite, the
country isn't worth even a fraction of that - because of Minsk, it can cause zero harm to
Russia. But this ploy raises the perceived value (Kolomoisky hopes) in the eyes of the west,
and starts the bidding.
In Russia the people see all this very clearly, including on their TV. Yakov Kedmi in this
Vesti News clip of
Vladimir Soloviev's hugely popular talk show, discusses the situation. He baits Soloviev by
saying that the Ukrainian thieves are only doing what the Russian thieves did in the 1990's -
and one must filter through this badinage to take out the nuggets he supplies. Here are
three:
1. Zelensky has no security apparatus that follows his command, therefore how can he be
considered the leader of the country?
2. There is no power in Ukraine, only forces that contend over the scraps of plunder.
3. These forces are creating the only law there is, which is the sacred nature of private
property for the rich - the only thing the US holds sacred.
Therefore sell the very soil.
~~
The Minsk agreement is a sheer wall of ice reaching to the sky. No force imaginable can
scale it or break it. Against that ultimate, immovable wall the US pounds futilely, with
Ukraine caught in the middle, while Russia waits for Ukraine to devolve into whatever it
can.
And the Russian people and government regard the people of the Ukraine as brothers and
sisters. But until the west has worn itself down, and either gone away or changed the
equation through a weakening of its own position in some significant way, nothing can be done
by Russia except to wait.
What Tod @32 described is spot-on, "the old Jewish threatening/begging dance". It is not that
the Russians do not know this about Kolomoyskyi. They will play along not expecting anything
from the Zelo-on-a-String and his master. The Russians like to let those scumbags (Erdo comes
to mind) huff & puff and embarrass themselves by flips. They know - it could always be
worse if those did something intelligent. Kolomoyskyi is vile but he ain't no genius, not any
more than Erdo.
Sure Cheeza...everybody's a 'bit off' except you...
Gazprom is talking about 10 bcm a year through Ukraine for the new 10 year deal, as
opposed to the 60 bcm [billion cubic meters] that Ukraine is hoping for...
"Deep state" is misleading and actually a false construction.
There is an Imperial State (the ruling faction/)which consists of imperial apparatchiks
placed in every key position in government. Babyl-on @ 8
? before I begin , how do you measure the political and economic power of money
as opposed to the political and economic power of the intentions and needs of the masses.
Does $1 control a 100 people? A million dollars control 100,000,000 people? How do we measure
the comparative values between money power and people power? I think the divisions of
economics and the binaries of politics established by the nation state system means that the
measurement function (political and economic values) varies as a function of the total wealth
vs the total population in each nation state. If true, become obvious how it is that: foreign
investments displaces the existing homeostatis in any particular nation state, the smaller
the poorer the nation state, the more impact foreign wealth can have; in other words outside
wealth can completely destroy the homeostatis of an existing nation state. I think it is this
fact which makes globalization so attractive to the ruling interest (RI) and so damning to
the poorest of the poor.
Change by amendment is impossible There is one and only one Western Empire but
there is also an Eastern Empire, a southern empire, and a Northern Empire and I believe the
ruling interest (faction) manipulate all nations through these empires. In fact, they can do
this in any nation they wish. The world has been divided into containers of humans and
propaganda and culture have highly polarized the humans in one container against the humans
in other containers. <=divide, polarize, then exploit: its like pry the window, and gain
access to the residence, then exploit. It is obvious that the strength of the resistance to
ruling class exploitation is a function of common cause among the masses. But money allows to
control both the division of power and the polarization of the masses. The persons who have
the powers described in Article II of the US Constitution since Lincoln was murdered can be
controlled (Epstein, MSM directed propaganda, impeachment, assassination, to accomplish the
objects of the ruling interest (faction). Article II of the USA constitution removes foreign
activity of the USA from domestic view of the governed at home Americans. Article II makes it
possible for the POTUS to use American assets and resources to assist his/her feudal lords in
exploiting foreign nations almost at will and there is no way governed Americans can control
who the ruling interest place in the Article II position.
A little History Immigration to NYC from Eastern (the poor) and Western (the
rich) Europe transitioned NYC and other cities from Irish majority to a Jewish majority; and
the wealthy interest used the Jewish majorities in key cities to take control over both
Article I and Article II constitutional powers by electing field effect controlled
politicians (political puppets are elected that can be reprogrammed while they are in office
to suit the ruling interest. The source code is called rule of law, and money buys the
programmers who write the code. So the ruling interest can reprogram in field effect fashion,
any POTUS they wish. Out of sight use of the resources of America in foreign lands is nothing
new, it was established when the constitution was written in Philadelphia in 1787 and
ratified in 1788.
Propaganda targeted to the Jewish Immigrants allowed the wealthy interest to
control the outcome of the 1912 election. That election allowed to destroy Article I,
Section 9, paragraph 4 " No Capitation, or other direct, Tax shall be laid unless in
Proportion to the Census of enumeration herein before directed to be taken". and to enact a
law which privatized the USA monopoly on money into the hands of private bankers (the federal
reserve act of 1913)
What was the grand design Highly competitive, independent too strong economic
Germany was interfering with Western hegemony and the oil was in the lands controlled by the
Ottomans. It took two wars, but Germany was destroyed, and the Ottoman empire (basically the
entire Middle East) became the war gained property of the British (Palestine), the French
(Syria) and the USA (Israel). Since then, the ruling interest have used their (field effect
devices to align governments so the wealthy could pillage victim societies the world over.
Field effect programming allows wealth interest to use the leaders of governments to use such
governments to enable pillage in foreign places. The global rich and powerful, and their
corporations are the ruling interest.
psychohistorian says it well "..the global private finance core segment of empire is
behind Trump and throwing America(ns) under the bus as the world turns more multilateral. The
cult of global private finance intends on still having some overarching super-national role
in the new multilateral world and holding debt guns to everyone's heads to make it
ongoing..." by psychochistorian @ 10
NOBITs @ 11 says it also "All presidents have been servants of the military, which includes
the police/intel/security apparatus; the few who did not entirely accept their figurehead
role were "dealt with." Kennedy, Nixon, Carter and now Trump. The Washington permanent state
bureaucrats are shocked and understandably offended; they have after all, been running US
foreign policy for 75 years!" by: NOBTS @ 11
According to TG @ 13 "Democracy" is about privatizing power and socializing
responsibility. The elites get to set the policy, but the public at large gets to take
responsibility when things go wrong. Because you see, we are a "Democracy."by: TG @ 13 <=
absolutely not.. the constitution isolates governed Americans from the USA, because the USA
is a republic and republics are about privatizing power and socializing responsibility;
worse, there ain't nothing you can do about it.
Vonu @ 19 says "According to Kevin Shipp, the National Security Council really runs the
executive branch, not the president. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=11&v=XHbrOg092GA"
by: Vonu @ 19 <=but it is by the authority of Ariicle II that the NSC has the power to run
the executive branch?
KAdath @ 22 says "the Oligarchs are now positioning themselves to abandon the US in
order for the Russians to keep even a tiny bit of oil flowing into their pockets by: Kadath @
22" <=exactly.. but really its not abandoning the USA, its abandoning the oligarchs local
to the pillaged nation..
J Swift @ 23 says "the US treats its partners in crime in Syria and elsewhere,"
[poorly] but its not the USA per say, because only one person has the power to deal in
foreign places. Its that the POTUS, or those who control the Article II powers vested in the
POTUS, have or has been reprogrammed.. J. Switft @23>>
flankerbandit @ 25 says " Ukraine has run itself into the ground, literally...now they
are selling vast tracts of agricultural land to huge Euro agribusiness concerns...literally
dispossessing themselves of their own food security..." flankerbandit @ 25 <=Not really
the wealthy (investor interest) have pushed the pillage at will button.. since there is no
resistance remaining, the wealthy will take it all for a song..
Jackrabbit @ 26 says "Trump [is].. Constitutionally charged with foreign policy. Repeating:
the "Imperial Presidency" has flung off Constitutional checks and balances by circumventing
the need to get Congressional approval for spending. Wars (like Syria) are now be funded by
Gulf Monarchies, black ops, and black budgets.by Jackrabbit @ 26 <== Trumps orders
military to take 4 million day from Syria in oil?
your observation that the money has circumvented Article I of the COUS explains why the
democraps are so upset.. the wealthy democrap interest has been left to rot? Your comment
suggest s mafia is in charge?
Tod @ 32 says "As soon as some money goes his way, he'll discover democracy again.
Sorry to burst you bubbles." by: Tod @ 32" <==understatement of the day.. thanks.
Bevin @ 32 says "a dialectic is at work here. Washington's support for fascism abroad
has instituted fascism at home which has led in turn to the installation of fascist regimes
abroad, not just occasionally but routinely. Wherever the US intervenes it leaves a fascist
regime, in which socialists are banned and persecuted, behind it. this means.. the ability of
the population to effect political change is cancelled" by bevin @ 33 <= yes but there is
really no difference in a republic and its rule of law, and a fascist government and its
military police both rule without any influential input from the governed.
michael @ 34 reaffirms "The President was the only channel of communication between the
United States and foreign nations, it was from him alone 'that foreign nations or their
agents are to learn what is or has been the will of the nation'" michael @ 34 well known to
barflies, the design of national constitutions is at the heart of the global problem. Until
constitutional powers are placed in control of the governed there will never be a change in
how the constitutional powers ( in case of the USA Article II powers) are used and
abused.
OutofThinAir @45 says "In general, governments are the order-providing solution for
chaos and problems that only first existed inside the minds of those seeking power over
others.by: OutOfThinAir @ 45" <+governments are the tools of wealth interest and the
governors their hired hands.
by: War is Peace @48 " Trump is a moron, groomed by Jewish parents ( Mother was Jewish,
Father buried at biggest Jewish cementary in NYC ) to be a non-Jew worked for the mob under
Cohen ( lawyer for 1950's McCarthy ); Became the 'Goyim Fool" real estate developer as a
cover for laundering mob money. So that it didn't appear that it was Jewish Mafia Money, so
they could work with the Italian Mafia. Trump went on for his greatest role ever to be the
"fool in Chief" of the USA for AIPAC. What better way to murder people, than send out a fool,
it causes people to drop their guard. by War is Peace @48 <= yes this is my take, What
does it mean. com suggest the global wealth interest may be planning to reprogram Trump to
better protect the interest of the global wealthy.
Kiza @ 51 the reason for globalization is explained see above=> response to Babyl-on @
8
dh @ 53 says ""The US should consider whom they are giving weapons to." by dh @53 <
the USA cannot consider anything, if its foreign the POTUS (Article II) makes all decisions
because Art II gives the POTUS a monopoly on talking to, and dealing with, foreign
governments.
Deagel @ 56 says "The American people don't care, they're all drugged out, and shitting
on the side-walks all over the USA, and sleeping in their own shit. This is the best time in
USA history for the Zionists to do anything they wish." by: Deagel @ 56 <= I think you
under estimate the value Americans place on democracy and human rights, until recently
governed Americans believed the third party privately produced MSM delivered propaganda that
nearly all overseas operations by the USA were to separate the people in those places from
their despotic leaders, and to help those displaced people install Democracy.. many Americans
have come to understand such is far from the case.. the situation in the Ukraine has been an
eye opener for many Americans. thoughts are sizzling, talk is happening, and people are
trying to shut google out of their lives. that is why i think Trump is about to be
reprogrammed from elected leader to .. God in charge
I watched that Soloviev segment with Kedmi the other day...always interesting to say the
least...
Btw...I'm not really up to speed on that whole Debaltsevo cauldron thing...I've heard
snippets here and there...[there is a guy, Auslander, who comments on the Saker blog that
seems to have excellent first hand info, but I've only caught snippets here and there]...
I hadn't heard this part of the story before about Nato contractors as bargaining
chips...if you care to shed a bit more light I will be grateful...
I suggest going to The Saker Blog and
enter Debaltsevo Cauldron into the site's search box and click Submit where you'll be greeted
with numerous results.
Grieved @62--
Thanks for your reply and excellent recap. As I recall, Putin wants Donbass to remain in
Ukraine and Ukraine to remain a whole state, although I haven't read his thoughts on the
matter for quite some months as everything has revolved around implementing Minsk. The items
at the Foreign Ministry I linked to are also concerned with Minsk.
The circus act in DC is trying to avoid any mention of Minsk, the coup or anything
material to the gross imperial meddling done there to enrich the criminal elite, which
includes Biden, Clinton, other DNC members--a whole suite of actors that omits Trump in this
case, although they're trying to pin something on him. The issue being studiously ignored is
Obama/Biden needed to be busted for their actions at the time, but in time-honored fashion
weren't. And the huge rotted sewer of corruption related to that action and ALL that came
before is the real problem at issue.
Typical reaction of a zelf-zentered person as evidenced by The New Yorker 737Max article
in the previous thread. This good article could only be measured by how much it agrees with
your own opinion that MCAS was put in to mimic the pilots' usual fly-stick feel. If anyone
does his home work, such as the journalist of this article, then he must agree with you,
right? With experts such as you out there, why would anyone dare apply common sense and say
that it would be an unimaginably stupid idea to put in ANY AUTOMATED SYSTEM which pushes
the plane's nose down during ascent (the most risky phase of a civilian flight, when almost
desperately trying to get up and up and up) for any DUMBLY POSSIBLE REASON !? What could
ever go wrong with such an absolutely dumbly initiated system relying on one sensor? Maybe it
was a similar idea to putting a cigarette lighter right next to the car's gas tank because it
lights up cigarettes better when there are gasoline vapors around. Or maybe an idea of
testing the self-driving lithium battery (exploding & flammable) cars near kindergartens
(of some other people's children)!?
An intelligent person would have said - whatever the reason was to put in MCAS it was a
terribly dumb idea, instead of congratulating himself on understanding the "true reason".
"If I were president, while I would resist gratuitous provocations, I would not publicly
associate myself with the delusion that stable friendship is possible (or, frankly,
desirable) with Putin's anti-American dictatorship, which runs its country like a Mafia
family and is acting on its revanchist ambitions."
Really?
From what have gleaned from the alternative media available on the internet ,of which MOA is
an important part. Putin and Lavrov are the two most moral and diplomatic statesmen on the
world stage today Compared to Trump, Johnson, Macron, Merkel, Stoltenberg, Pompeo, Bolton and
whoever else blights the international scene these days these two are colossi.
To describe
them as like a Mafia family seems to me to be 180 degrees wrong. Maybe Putin overreacted, in
his early days in power, to the Chechen conflict but look at the situation today.
Look at how
Gorbachev and Yeltsin were played by the west. I appreciate you did not write the words
quoted above but you said you agree with them and I find that startling given I am usually
very admiring of your insight and knowledge of geopolitical events.
According to the Impeachniks, it is Schiff's staff who decides how Schiff votes and his
policies. It would be illegal for Schiff to make decisions. But Schiff's recommendation will
make or break the careers of his staff, so elected Schiff has some influence. That's not true
for elected Trump, because those in his service already have made careers and/or a host of
outsiders looking to place them.
Although, he didn't get impeached for it Obama did get criticized for not sending the aid to
Ukraine. He was also criticized when he did intervene, but not fast enough for the deep
state. Remember "leading from behind" in response to Libya. Obama was much more popular and
circumspect than Trump, which protected him from possible impeachment when he went off the
deep state's script.
Discussion of the USC and the responsibilities assigned therein is probably a foolish and
merely moot exercise, as law is, ultimately simply custom over time, and since '45 or so the
custom has become dissociated from the documents' provisions, particularly with regard to
war-making and the "licensed" import and sale of dangerous drugs, dope. The custom in place
is essentially ukase - rule by decree. Many decree are secret.
I do not object, simply pointing to the obvious.
This is a public secret anybody can know. Inter alia see The Politics of Heroin in
Southeast Asia (McCoy)
...........
Custom includes also permitted theft, blackmail, trafficking children and so forth.
...........
zerohedge put up some documents tying TGM Hunter B to the money from Ukraine...
................
I would not worry about the name of the person called president. The real sitrep is more
like watching rape and murder from the dirty windows of a runaway train.
Upon the dissolution of the USSR, Ukraine was left with the fifth-largest nuclear arsenal in
the world. In exchange for financial assistance in the costs of removing all the nukes, the
West guaranteed to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity.
In the meantime, Russia has annexed the Crimea and rebels have taken control of parts of
Eastern Ukraine. The West has not provided any direct military assistance to restore those
territorial infringements.
Since the West has reneged on its end of the deal, would it not only be fair to return
Ukraine's nukes so it can defend itself like the Big Boys do, namely with threat of nuclear
annihilation?
I hate this trope. The Russian Fed. is not launching offensive operations to capture
Kharkov or Kiev. Western Ukraine is shelling ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. What would
U.S. Congressman say if these were Jews? (I would condemn that as well).
The next time someone pontificates, 'Ukrainians are dying because Trump held up aid' ask
them how many. The number is ZERO. Javelins are not being used on the front line.
Mr. Kolomoisky is spot on, i.e. when he says that the Americans will only use Ukrainians as
their little bitches to fight and die for America's gain against Russia. Just like the
Americans fucked over the Kurds in Syria, using them as proxy fighters to do USA/Israel's
dirty work. Wherever the USA shows up and starts interfering, everything turns into shit:
Iraq...Afghanistan...Venezuela...Bolivia...Ukraine...Libya...Yemen...Nicaragua...Ecuador...the
list is quite long. It remains to be seen if Mr. Kolomoisky can bring about rapprochement
with Russia. He'd better watch his back.
"Wow. My opinion of Kolomoisky has just improved ... somewhat." --Seamus Padraig @73
Yes, Kolomoisky has moved up a notch in my estimation as well; from the low of
"monstrously inhuman spawn of satan" all the way up to "rabid dog" . That's
quite the dramatic improvement, I must admit.
I am very glad to see you back, Grieved, and your 'wall of ice' metaphor is indeed accurate.
To me, the promising signs in Ukraine were even as here in the US when voters fought back
against what b calls Deep State, which I am sure in my heart was even more of an overwhelming
surge than registered - the best the corrupters of the system could do was make it close
enough to be a barely legitimate win for their side, and they didn't succeed. Maybe somewhere
along their line of shenanigans a small cog in the wheel got religion and didn't do their
'job'. An unsung hero who will sing when it's safe.
I hope, dearly hope, it gets safe in Ukraine very soon. They are us only further down the
line than we are, but we will get there if we can't totally remove the cancer in our midst.
That's our job; I wish Ukraine all the best in removing theirs.
Jen...I should have made clear that the two aircraft picked up by Russian PRIMARY RADAR were
unidentified...
The two commercial flights you mention were in the area and were known to both Russian and
Ukrainian controllers by means of the SECONDARY SURVEILLANCE RADAR, which picks up the
aircraft transponder signals...
However, secondary WILL NOT pick up military craft that have their transponders
off...which is normal operating procedure for military craft...
So the airspace situation was this...you can see this from one of the illustrations I
provided from the DSB prelim report...
You had MH17...you had that other flight coming from the opposite direction [flying
west]...and you had that airplane that overtook the MH17 from behind [they were in a hurry
and were going faster, so when MH17 decided to stay at FL330, they were cleared to climb to
FL350 so they could safely overtake with the necessary vertical separation...]
Those three aircraft were all picked up on the Ukrainian SECONDARY [transponder]
surveillance...as well as the Russians...on both their PRIMARY AND SECONDARY...
But what the Russians picked up were two craft ONLY ON THEIR PRIMARY...those would have
been military aircraft flying with their transponders off [they're allowed to do that and do
that most of the time in fact]...
That's why those two DIDN'T SHOW UP ON THE SECONDARY DATA HANDED OVER TO THE INVESTIGATORS
BY THE UKRAINIANS...
Only primary radar would pick those up...and, very conveniently, the Dnipro primary was
inop at the time...[so the data handed to investigators by the Ukrainians would have no trace
of any military aircraft nearby]...
But with the Russian primary radar data, there is in fact evidence that there were
military aircraft in the air at the time...just that the Dutch investigators simply decided
to exclude the very vital Russian radar data on some stupid technicality...
[Really this is a very poorly done report, both prelim and final, and I've read many over
the years...]
The other thing I should have emphasized more clearly is about that course deviation that
controllers steered MH17 to, just seconds before it was hit...
The known traffic was those three commercial aircraft, as shown on the chart...here it is
again...
Those three commercial flights are clearly labeled...and the big question is... why was
MH17 DIVERTED SOUTH...OFF ITS PLANNED ROUTE...?
We can see the deviation track by the dotted red line...
Clearly there was no 'other traffic' that required MH17 to be vectored south by the
controllers...
In fact we see that there was a FOURTH commercial flight [another B777] that was flying
south exactly to that same waypoint that MH17 was diverted to...we see this airplane is
flying west on the M70 airway and is heading to the RND waypoint...
This does not make sense...why would you divert MH17 from going to TAMAK as flight
planned...in order to go south toward RND where another airplane is heading...
If nothing else this is very bad controller practice right there...yet again, the DSB
[Dutch Safety Board] does not even raise this question...
Like I said, leaving aside any guesswork, these are the simple facts and they raise
serious questions...both about the competence of the Dutch report, and the way the
controllers handled that flight...
Ukrainian think tank Ukrainian Institute of the Future and Ukrainian media outlet Zerkalo
Nedeli (both anti-Russian, but slightly more intellectual than typical Ukrainian outlets)
have contracted a Kharkov-based pollster to conduct a poll among DNR/LNR residents from
October 7 to October 31 (method: face-to-face interviews at the homes of the respondents,
sample size: 806 respondents in DNR and 800 respondents in LNR, margin of error: 3.2%) and
published its results in an article: Тест
на сумісність
[Compatibility Test] (in Ukrainian).
It's a long and rambling article, interspersed with
Ukrainian propagandistic clichés (perhaps to placate Ukrainian nationalists), but the
numbers look solid, so I've extracted the numbers I consider important and put them in a
table format. Here they are:
GENERAL INFORMATION
Gender 46.5% male 53.5% female
Age 8.3% <25 years old 91.7% ≥25 years old
Education 31.5% no vocational training or higher education 45.2% vocational training 23.3% higher education
Religion 57% marry and baptize their children in Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) 31% believe in God, but do not go to any church 12% other churches, other religions, atheists
Political activity 3% are members of parties 97% are not members of parties
Language 90% speak Russian at home 10% speak other languages at home
Nationality 55.4% consider themselves Ukrainians 44.6% do not consider themselves Ukrainians
ECONOMY
Opinion about the labor market 24.3% there are almost no jobs 39.3% high unemployment, but it's possible to find a job 15.7% there are jobs, even if temporary 17.1% key enterprises are working, those who want to work can find a job 2.9% there are not enough employees
Personal financial situation 4.9% are saving on food 36.4% enough money to buy food, but have to save money to buy clothing 43.6% enough money to buy food and clothing, but have to save money to buy a suit, a mobile
phone, or a vacuum cleaner 12% enough money to buy food, clothing, and other goods, but have to save money to buy
expensive goods (e.g. consumer electronics) 2.7% enough money to buy food, clothing, and expensive goods, but have to save money to buy a
car or an apartment 0.4% enough money to buy anything
Personal financial situation compared to the previous year 28.4% worsened 57.3% stayed the same 14.2% improved
Personal financial situation expectations for the next year 21% will worsen 58.6% will stay the same 18.7% will improve
Opinion on the Ukraine's (sans DNR/LNR) economic situation compared to the previous
year 50.3% worsened 41.4% stayed the same 6.3% improved
CITIZENSHIP
Consider themselves citizens of 57.8% the Ukraine 34.8% DNR/LNR 6.8% Russia
Russian citizenship 42.9% never thought about obtaining it 15.5% don't want to obtain it 34.2% would like to obtain it 7.4% already obtained it
Considered leaving DNR/LNR for 5.2% the Ukraine 11.1% Russia 2.9% other country 80.8% never considered leaving
Visits to the Ukraine over the past year 35.1% across the DNR/LNR–Ukraine border (overwhelming majority of them -- 32.2% of all
respondents -- are pensioners who visit the Ukraine to receive their pensions) 2.6% across the Russia–Ukraine border 62.3% have not visited the Ukraine
WAR
Is the war in Donbass an internal Ukrainian conflict? 35.6% completely agree 40.5% tend to agree 14.1% tend to disagree 9.3% completely disagree
Was the war started by Moscow and pro-Russian groups? 3.1% completely agree 6.4% tend to agree 45.1% tend to disagree 44.9% completely disagree
Who must pay to rebuild DNR/LNR? (multiple answers) 63.6% the Ukraine 29.3% Ukrainian oligarchs 18.5% DNR/LNR themselves 17% the U.S. 16.5% the EU 16% Russia 13% all of the above
ZELENSKIY
Opinion about Zelenskiy 1.9% very positive 17.2% positive 49.6% negative 29.3% very negative
Has your opinion about Zelenskiy changed over the past months? 2.7% significantly improved 7.9% somewhat improved 44.8% stayed the same 22.9% somewhat worsened 20.5% significantly worsened
Will Zelenskiy be able to improve the Ukraine's economy? 1.4% highly likely 13.3% likely 55.3% unlikely 30% highly unlikely
Will Zelenskiy be able to bring peace to the region? 1.7% highly likely 12.5% likely 59% unlikely 26.5% highly unlikely
MEDIA
Where do you get your information on politics? (multiple answers) 84.3% TV 60.6% social networks 50.9% relatives, friends 45.9% websites 17.4% co-workers 10% radio 7.4% newspapers and magazines
What social networks do you use? (multiple answers) 70.7% YouTube 61% VK 52.3% Odnoklassniki 49.8% Viber 27.1% Facebook 21.4% Instagram 12.4% Twitter 11.1% Telegram
FUTURE
Desired status of DNR/LNR 5.1% part of the Ukraine 13.4% part of the Ukraine with a special status 16.2% independent state 13.4% part of Russia with a special status 50.9% part of Russia
Desired status of entire Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts 8.4% part of the Ukraine 10.8% part of the Ukraine with a special status 14.4% independent state 13.3% part of Russia with a special status 49.6% part of Russia
Just listening to a bit of the testimony of the ex-ambassador to Ukraine.
It is all BS hearsay!
Also, this lady doesn't seem to grasp that as an employee of the State Department, she
answers to Trump. Trump is her boss.
The questioning is full of leading questions that contains allegations and unproved
premises built into them. I can't imagine that such questioning would be allowed in a normal
court of justice in the USA.
Sure, Trump is a boor. But he is still the boss and he gets to pull out ambassadors if he
wants to.
This is total grandstanding.
Also, a lot of emotional stuff like "I was devastated. I was shocked. Color drained from
my face as I read the telephone transcript . . . "
This is BS!
IIRC the Russian radar showed that the two mystery planes in questions were flying in
MH17's blindspot . That's way too close to be half an hour away. Also, the fact that
the two planes were flying over a war zone with their transponders turned off (which is why
they couldn't be conclusively identified) strongly suggests that they were military.
@ Posted by: ralphieboy | Nov 15 2019 11:24 utc | 71
When the US launched a coup in Kiev, wasn't that a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty
too?
@ Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Nov 15 2019 12:36 utc | 72
You know the real reason why they have yet to deliver the javelins to Ukraine? It's
because they're afraid that they'll be sold on the black market and end up in the ME
somewhere targeting US tanks. That's why.
@ Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 15 2019 13:30 utc | 75
That's quite the dramatic improvement, I must admit.
on Yovanovitch,
She added: "If our chief representative is kneecapped, it limits our effectiveness to
safeguard the vital national security interests of the United States."
She wasn't fired, she was kneecapped, and Ukraine is a US vital national security
interest, especially after it installed a new government with neo-fascism support.. .
.Kneecapping is a form of malicious wounding, often as torture, in which the victim is
injured in the knee
Cheeza decides to launch a personal attack...also completely off topic...
Typical reaction of a zelf-zentered person [sic]...With experts such as you out there,
why would anyone dare apply common sense...an intelligent person would have said...blah
blah blah...
Look man...I'm not going to take up a lot of space on this thread because it's not about
the MAX...
BUT...I need to set the record straight because you are accusing me here of somehow
muddying the waters on the MAX issue...
That is a complete inversion of the truth...I have been very explicit in my [professional]
comments about the MAX...and it is the exact opposite of what you are trying to tar me with
here...
Yes, it is important to understand these things...which is why I have made the effort to
explain the issue more clearly for the layman audience...
Your pathetic attack here shows you have no shame, nor self-respect...
Let's rewind the tape here...I said that Gazprom is looking to cut supplies to Ukraine in
the new 10 year deal that comes up for negotiation in January...and that they are going to be
pumping much less gas through Ukraine because NS2 now allows to bypass Ukraine...
You took a run at this comment, calling it wrong, and putting up a bunch of your own
hypothesizing...
I responded by linking to the
Russian news report quoting officials saying exactly that...that gas to Ukraine will be
greatly reduced...
Instead of responding to that by admitting you were full of shit...you decide to attack me
on the MAX issue...everybody here knows my [professional] position on the MAX...and that I
have said repeatedly THAT IT CANNOT BE FIXED...[which is also why I have offered detailed
technical explanations...]
I'm not going to let you screw with my integrity here...everything you attributed to me
on the MAX is completely FALSE and in fact turning the truth on its head...
As Kiza #55 noted - Nordstream 1 and 2, combined, only equal half of Ukraine's transit
capacity.
The primary impact is that Ukraine can't hold far Western European customer gas hostage
anymore with its gas transit "negotiations" as Nordstream allows Russia to sell directly to
Germany.
There can still be Russian gas sold via Ukraine, but this will be mostly to near-Ukraine
neighbors: Romania, Slovakia, Austria, Czech as well as Ukraine itself.
Bulgaria, Serbia and Romania can transit from Turk Stream, but there are potential Turk (and
Bulgarian) issues.
Poland is already committing to LNG in order to not be dependent on Russian gas transiting
Ukraine - a double whammy.
The ultimate effect is to remove Ukraine's stranglehold position over Russian gas exports,
which in turn severely undercuts Ukraine's ability to both get really cheap Russian gas and
additional transit fees - a major blow to their economy.
Therefore, the continuation of gas transit via Ukraine in volumes greater than the 26 bcm/y
suggested above will depend on the European Commission and European gas importers, and
their insistence that gas transit via Ukraine continues.
Otherwise, gas transit via Ukraine will be reduced to delivering limited volumes for
European storage re-fills in the 'off-peak' summer months...
This prospect will undoubtedly complicate any negotiations between Gazprom and its
Ukrainian counterparty over a new contract to govern the transit of Russian gas via
Ukraine, once the existing contract expires at the end of December 2019.
...Gazprom may be willing to commit to only limited annual transit volumes...
European gas importers don't give a shit about Ukraine...and they have the final
word...they care only about getting the gas they need from Russia in a reliable way and at a
good price...
The news report I linked to makes it perfectly clear that the Europeans are demanding that
the Ukranians get their act together on the gas issue, or they will be dropped
altogether...
You know...FOOL...it really makes me wonder how fools like you decide to make statements
here with a very authoritative tone...when it is quite clear you are talking out your rear
end...
Nobody needs that kind of bullshit here...if you don't know a subject sufficiently well,
then maybe you should keep quiet...or when making a statement, phrase it as your own OPINION
and nothing more...
Brilliant! Acting Ambassador Bill Taylor's testimony today was unabashed and explicit: the
real issue is how best to bring Ukraine into the Western orbit–a bipartisan 30-year
effort.
For a follow-up, dig deeper into Burisma Holdings and its strange set of directors: Hunter
Biden, Devon Archer, Cofer Black, Alan Apter, and the former president of Poland, among
others. Then Google "Burisma and LNG," as in liquified natural gas.
That will lead to the
business press: Forbes 9/30/2019, Reuters 8/30/2019, and Petroleum Economist 8/8/2017.
The
apparent plan, still in process, is to ship U.S. LNG to Ukraine via a port on the Baltic
coast of Poland, thereby weaning Ukraine away from Russian natural gas and hurting Russia's
export-dependent economy. Cold War II stuff. Check it out.
The EU sees US leadership failing while the Russian beast to its east are getting stronger. The lessons of Russia wielding power
over Ukraine by cutting off energy supplies have been noted: energy security is a long-term threat to the EU and Russia is on the
verge of controlling Middle Eastern supplies as well. Furthermore, the lessons of China's economic successes through non-democratic
government control will also have been noted as something for European statists to emulate.
The EU's response to the energy threat from Russia has been to adopt a radical green agenda without reservation. Despite about
98% of transport and logistics being delivered by diesel and gasoline, some member states in the EU are banning the sales of internal
combustion engines as motive power from as soon as 2030 . This accelerated path to zero emissions will require massive investment.
Clearly this is being viewed as economically stimulative at a time of declining optimism over the general economic outlook.
These views are articulated in UNCTAD's Trade and Development Report 2019, Financing a Global Green Deal [iii]. The authors argue
that internationally coordinated action between governments pursuing reflationary monetary and fiscal policies, while restricting
international capital flows, will generate the economic growth and capture the resources to finance the investment. The charts below
are indicative of their thinking, and are copied from Page 56 of the report.
Excellent laying out of the situation but little in the way of digestible solutions. Demonizing Russia as "the Beast" is both
unhelpful and shows a prejudice of the author shared by the genuinely evil powers of the world. Russia has a huge interest in
keeping Europe as an energy trading partner. The troubles with Ukraine were due to the US / Globalist efforts in that country
to destabilize a competitor (Russia) in their global hegemonic bid.
Russia is well led and debt free. The gold backed crypto is well underway in that country but was not mentioned in this otherwise
breathy article. Crypto is a bridge too far at the moment for general consumption. I am betting on a return to a fractional gold
tie down. The mis-leaders and the bankers will not enjoy having their print-fest party spoiled but it is the only practical solution
and carries the much desired mechanism of tying their dirty hands.
Debt is the noose which will hang the central banks and this hanging needs to be done in public whether 5% or 50% of the people
understand it. Some people will only understand how the system works when Starbucks declines their cattle card.
Again pathetic assholes making plans against Russia.
It is a terrible shame: only two countries at the UN opposed Russia's resolution on the fight against Nazism.
The third committee of the UN General Assembly on social and humanitarian issues by a majority vote adopted a draft Russian
resolution to combat the glorification of Nazism. Thanks to this initiative, radical groups can have big problems.
Representatives of 121 countries supported the idea of Russian diplomats. As expected, only two countries voted against -
the United States and Ukraine. Another 55 countries abstained from voting.
No wonder. Americans are behind any Nazism. Hitler's fascism in particular, they grew up in the hope of inciting Hitler to the
USSR. Well, Ukro-Nazis today are the favorite Nazi whores of Americans. Therefore, such results: the owner and his whore.
As Nikita Khrushchev said, we did not finish you off near Stalingrad, but we will finish you off!
Perry is another neocon in Trump administration and it looks like he pushed Trump under the train.
Notable quotes:
"... In November, Perry touted a shipment of Pennsylvania coal to Ukraine as "just one example of America's readiness and commitment to help diversify Europe's energy markets." ..."
"... Another major priority for Perry is opposing the construction of Nord Stream 2, a proposed gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany that many nations, including the United States, fear will increase the European Union's reliance on Russia for its energy needs. While in Ukraine in May, Perry promised that Trump would back a bill sanctioning companies involved in the project. ..."
Congressional Democrats want to know more about Rick Perry's travels to Ukraine and
conversations with officials there, signaling that the mild-mannered energy secretary won't
escape the intense of heat of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump.
In a memo released Wednesday, House Oversight Committee Chairman Elijah E. Cummings (D-Md.)
said he plans to issue a subpoena for White House documents by the end of the week centered on
Trump's requests to the Ukrainian government to open an investigation into one of his chief
political rivals, former vice president Joe Biden.
Among the records his committee is seeking are any related to Perry's attendance of
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's inauguration on May 20 as well as a White House
meeting Perry attended three days later.
Robert Menendez of New Jersey, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
similarly sent a letter to Perry on Tuesday asking him what instructions Trump gave him when
the Cabinet official flew to Ukraine in May, as well as who asked Perry to go there in the
first place. And three House committees on Monday issued a sweeping subpoena to Trump's
personal lawyer, Rudolph W. Giuliani, in part seeking documents related to Perry.
The multiple congressional inquiries have put a spotlight on Perry, who has distinguished
himself during his time in the job for avoiding controversy. Though the energy secretary is not
accused of wrongdoing and has not been directly subpoenaed, Perry and his Energy Department
spent Wednesday reassuring congressional Democrats they will cooperate with the impeachment
probe.
"We're going to work with Congress and answer all their questions," Perry told reporters
Wednesday at a departmental event in Chicago on artificial intelligence.
Leading a department he once called to eliminate when running for president in 2012, Perry
has kept his head down and avoided the scandals that embroiled some of Trump's original energy
and environmental policy team members, including former Environmental Protection Agency chief
Scott Pruitt and ex-Interior Department secretary Ryan Zinke, who were both ousted amid ethics
investigations. Perry's easygoing demeanor has let him develop productive relationships with
members of Congress on both sides of the aisle.
"Regardless of subject, the Department is always willing to work with Congress in response
to requests that follow proper procedures," Energy Department spokeswoman Shaylyn Hynes wrote
by email.
An explosive whistleblower complaint from an anonymous U.S. intelligence official alleged
Trump did not want to meet with Zelensky until he saw how the new Ukrainian leader "chose to
act" in office. In May, Perry led the American delegation to Zelensky's inauguration in lieu of
Vice President Pence after Pence canceled his planned trip, according to the complaint.
Two months later, on July 25, Trump repeatedly urged Zelensky in a phone call to investigate
Biden, offering to enlist Attorney General William P. Barr in that effort while dangling the
possibility of a White House meeting, according to a rough transcript of the call the White
House released.
On Wednesday, Perry declined to say to reporters whether he was on the July phone call. He
joked that he was asked to fill in for Pence in Ukraine in May because he is "just such a darn
good Cabinet member."
As energy secretary, Perry has regularly traveled to Eastern Europe to promote the sale of
U.S.-produced natural gas and coal. "I've had the opportunity to go into so many different
countries to represent the United States, our energy opportunities," Perry said Wednesday.
"Ukraine is one of those."
It is not unusual for energy secretaries to have a hand in foreign policy. Ernest Moniz, a
nuclear physicist who served as President Barack Obama's energy secretary, played a central
role in brokering the Iran nuclear deal in 2015.
Energy secretaries "do get involved from time to time on diplomatic issues," said Susan
Tierney, a former assistant secretary for policy at the Energy Department under Obama.
Curbing Eastern and Central European countries' dependence on Russia for electricity and
heating fuel was "very early on a priority" for the Trump administration, according to George
David Banks, a former Trump White House energy policy adviser. Given Perry's happy-go-lucky
charm -- and the fact that former secretary of state Rex Tillerson was recused from dealing
with several energy issues because of his previous job as ExxonMobil's chief executive -- it
made sense for Perry to work on Ukraine, Banks said.
"He's a natural-born diplomat," Banks said.
Ukraine, rich with its own natural gas reserves, does not import gas from the United States,
unlike some Eastern European nations such as Poland and Lithuania. But it does take in and burn
American coal -- about 4.8 million tons of it in 2018, according to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration. Most of that U.S.-to-Ukraine-bound coal is of a special grade often used in
manufacturing steel, a major industry in Ukraine. The United States is only one of a few
coal-exporting countries that has that type of coal.
The country has its own coal reserves, but much of them are located in contested territory
in eastern Ukraine. Facing costly imports from Russia, Ukraine has begun getting coal supplies
from the United States, Australia, Kazakhstan, and others places in recent years, according to
EIA.
In November, Perry touted a shipment of Pennsylvania coal to Ukraine as "just one example of
America's readiness and commitment to help diversify Europe's energy markets."
Another major priority for Perry is opposing the construction of Nord Stream 2, a proposed
gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany that many nations, including the
United States, fear will increase the European Union's reliance on Russia for its energy needs.
While in Ukraine in May, Perry promised that Trump would back a bill sanctioning companies
involved in the project.
U.S. efforts to derail Nordstream 2 have failed. Hehehe. All those sanctions were bypassed;
the partnerships of Nordstream 2 - Wintershall, Austria's OMV, France's Engie, and the
Netherlands' Royal Dutch Shell - were converted to loans and Gazprom owns it all.
COPENHAGEN/BUDAPEST (Reuters) - Denmark on Wednesday gave the go-ahead to the Nord Stream 2
gas pipeline, removing the last major hurdle to completion of the Russian-led project that
has divided opinion in the European Union.[.]
For the past three years the U.S. has fought the construction of the Nordstream 2
pipeline from Russia to Germany every inch of the way.
The battle came down to the last few miles, literally, as Denmark has been withholding the
final environmental permit on Nordstream 2 for months.
The U.S., especially under Trump, have committed themselves to a 'whole of government
approach' to stop the 55 bcm natural gas pipeline from making landfall in Germany.[.]
In a sense, this pipeline is Germany's declaration of independence from seventy-plus years
of U.S. policy setting. Never forget that Germany is occupied territory with more than
50,000 U.S. troops stationed there.
So it is supremely rich of President Trump call Nordstream 2 something that could make
Germany a "hostage of Russia" when it's been a hostage of the U.S. since 1945.
Then again, history isn't one of Trump's strong suits.[.]
How is that song again? do not know much about geography or geology.
@23 Thanks for the Nordstream 2 news. The Danish objections were critical to completing the
pipeline. Apparently the problem was more environmental than political as far as the Danes
were concerned.
@23 Likklemore.
Northstream II is a gift from Trump. Remember how he insulted the Danes by suggesting to buy
Greenland and then again insulted the Queen by
cancelling his trip to the country because she refused to discuss the offer? It was that
moment back in August when I thought "Thank you Trump, you just gave us Northstream II". This
is how Trump defeats the Borg so now and then.
@ Likklemore 23
There's also UNCLOS as a factor on the Denmark decision for Nordstream 2:
In the exclusive economic zone, all States, whether coastal or land-locked, enjoy, subject
to the relevant provisions of this Convention, the freedoms referred to in article 87
["freedom to lay submarine cables and pipelines"] of navigation and overflight and of the
laying of submarine cables and pipelines, and other internationally lawful uses of the sea
related to these freedoms, such as those associated with the operation of ships, aircraft
and submarine cables and pipelines, and compatible with the other provisions of this
Convention. . . here
@30 The Danes had geographic and economic reasons for sure. I like joost's theory too.
Offering to buy Greenland and insulting the Queen was no way to get the Danes to block the
pipeline.....if that's what Trump really wanted. That would be sheer genius on Trump's part.
But I don't think the Danes will say that was the reason. I'm guessing they'll say they
had environmental concerns.
Nordstream II follows Nordstream I closely near Bornholm, which makes one wonder what the
environmentally based objections were to the second pipeline's route. The pipeline can be
laid down in three to four weeks so construction issues would not appear to be a major
problem.
Posted by: Breadonwater | Oct 31 2019 20:05 utc | 45
Why is Denmark's approval needed for Nordstream 2? Is it due to the Danish island of
Bornholm?
MARITIME LAW EXPLAINED
The United Nations Convention on
the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) from 1958 guarantees to all countries the right to lay
cables and pipes in international waters. This is part of the freedom of the seas. Laying
cables and pipes is not "economic" activity as defined in the 1982 treaty that gave countries
the right to a 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone
(EEZ).
Pipe laying is affected only by the little-known
Espoo Convention from 1991 that obliges the parties to carry out an environmental impact
assessment of certain activities at an early stage of planning. Nowhere in the treaty does it
say that it can be used to stop the freedom of navigation or other freedoms of the seas.
NordStream 2 will NOT pass through Danish territorial waters, as Russian and Western media
often falsely impliy.
Denmark was instructed to delay the European/Russian Nordstream2 approval. The delay
forced the consortium to redirect the pipeline to avoid Danish waters and so now whatever
they decide is completely moot and irrelevant. They are only trying to save face because they
recently approved a pipeline to Poland for expensive US freedom gas. This is how it works,
small countries like Denmark and Poland have no say of their own when the US wants
something.
Precious! After all those years Ukraine tried to force Gazprom to prolong transportation
contracts, including in western Courts, now it is EUROCOMMISSION that plays their 3rd Energy
Package card, but how!
After Zelensky so daringly kissed up to Trump and talk dirt about Merkel and Macron
– EC says the prolongation of Gazprom-NaftaGaz contract is "not legally possible" and
that Ukraine has to kill and "unbundle" NaftaGaz, and when they done – only then the
new pipes-only company would be free to try negotiate a new unrelated contract for gas
transportation.
The Holy Grail of Ukrainian foreign economics is dead, backstabbed by EU.
What a fine present to President Ze :-DDDD
I think the EU may have just fucked Nord Stream II. An EU General Court overturned the 2016
EU Commission decision to allow Gazprom to use more than 50% of the Opal pipeline, a critical
choke point for both legs of Nord Stream II to get gas to the hub. If that decision can't be
reversed again, a reasonable argument will be made that Nord stream II is not necessary, as
Nord Stream alone can easily supply 50% capacity. The kicker is they do not have any other
exporter who could make up the other 50% to use the pipeline to capacity. But this is a very
shrewd move, as the Opal pipeline was always the weak link.
Ukraine, of course, will be dancing in the streets with delight. But I wouldn't be too
quick to do that. Russia might still decline to renew the contract with Ukraine, and just let
Europe go short, to teach it a lesson. Past time, in my opinion. Of course Uncle Sam will see
that as the opportunity long looked for, and offer to step up with LNG imports. And that
might be good, too, for a couple of years – let the Yurrupeans pay extortionate gas
prices, and learn to be wary of America's temper tantrums translated to supply 'problems'
which can only be resolved by making political concessions. Russia has always pretty much let
Europe do its thing without pressuring it much, despite the hysterics you see in the media
about weaponization of energy.
It is absolutely typical of Europe to wait until the pipeline is almost complete to
offload that bomb. I suppose they figure Russia will have to agree to anything they say so as
not to waste all that work and money. It also showcases Europe's complete unreliability in
any business relationship, exactly in lock-step with American unreliability.
I saw that news too. But then remember the original Nord Stream had a cap that was then
lifted. If the EU insists on paying top $$$ for imported LNG from the US rather than lifting
any sort of cap, I'd be interested to see how they justify that to EU citizen consumers.
I think the point is, again, not to react immediately to whatever outrage Brussels or its
friends pick out of their ass. I could well imagine that NSII partners may well sue Brussels
about this, actually file the papers. Brussels would argue 'But it's not us, it's the court',
to which the lawyers would say 'We specifically asked you, and you came up with nothing in
law'.
I think we will find the general court has taken a certain 'interpretation' of competition
law that was 'advised' by Brussles. How NSII could get this far after all of these years and
have a court come out with such a ruling. Expect egg on face and 'It's not me!'. I don't see
how this 'ruling' can stand.
"The Europeans apply antitrust legislation, which is designed to develop the competition.
Why it is necessary to free up 50% of the gas pipeline's capacity? According to the idea of
the legislators, it has to allow competition to arise. But when nobody can physically come to
the start point of the OPAL gas pipeline, alternative suppliers have nowhere to come from.
There physically isn't and can't be another supplier in OPAL!!! It's like banning water from
being carried in full buckets!"
The very inspiration of competition is the introduction of anti-monopoly procedures to
establish a lowest price by pitting the competitors against one another. I am pretty
confident that Russia has always had the lowest prices, and can usually be induced to do a
deal for lower prices yet in exchange for other considerations. When other countries do it,
it's what dealing's all about – when Russia does it, it's weaponizing energy.
If you have a reliable supplier who has access to years of reserves and who consistently
sells to you at a reasonable price, why do you have to impose a raft of new rules to bring in
competitors who cannot match its prices and do not have access to plentiful supplies? Once
again, for Yurrupeans who do not get it, competition is to arrive at a low price. If you
start from a low price, it is stupid to mandate room for competitors who cannot get under
it.
I suspect the Poles are behind this latest charade. But why is Germany going along with
it? Opal lies entirely within Germany, and anything that risks constraining available supply
risks Germany's status as a gas hub.
Anyway, as I suggested earlier, it would do Europe a world of good for Russia to short
them gas for a little while and let them pay prices for outside supplies that would have
their hair on fire. A period of throwing money away when you know there is a cheaper supply
to which you cannot get access can be extremely educational. Uncle Sam would jump at the
chance to sell Europe LNG and, at least in the beginning, would cut prices to the bone in
order to establish market share. But it would still insist on making a profit, and it can't
do that and match Russian prices, while its lengthy logistic chain depends on a lot of
factors. If it became confident that its market share was both secure and relied upon,
Europeans would quickly see how it was leveraged against them to American advantage.
Helping the Ukraine in it's gas talks fit in my opinion. This 50% cap can be lifted,
reintroduced/whatever and whenever by Brussels. It's a gangsta move.
Well, actually, it can't. Be lifted and re-imposed willy-nilly, I mean. If it is, it would be
pointless to build the pipeline in the first place, as Opal would merely take the place of
Ukraine. The western tacticians want to keep Ukraine in the mix because they can use it to
introduce complications and problems in gas delivery from Russia, which can at the same time
be used to paint Russia as an unreliable partner. If Opal can't be relied upon to supply the
opportunity to transit major volumes, Russia will have to make a deal with Ukraine so as to
preserve a Plan B option. It would have been better to not build the pipeline, and still
cease transit through Ukraine, labeling it instead as the unreliable part of the logistics
chain, and Europe would just have to be satisfied with what it could get out of existing
pipelines – minus Ukraine – running flat-out. After all, Europe maintained that a
twin line for Nord Stream was not needed; mind you, when they said that, they were
envisioning continued transit through Ukraine, complete with the prima donna antics Ukraine
exhibits when it believes it has leverage.
The price of gas would go through the roof, and Russia would probably make just as much
money, while the Europeans were weeping and tearing out their hair.
Ukraine's offer for the gas talks is 60 Billion Cubic Meters transit annually for 10
years. Russia will tell them to go fuck themselves. They're basically asking for a contract
to transit the same amount they're transiting now, when there is no alternative, for ten more
years.
I wish I could be so sure. Brussels likes to think it is kleva (sic 'field pipes'/TAP
exemptions). I've looked for more details, and it is appealable (is that a word)?
For several years, Russia could use only 50% of the pipeline's capacity, as prescribed
in the EU's Third Energy Package. Gazprom asked for permission to use OPAL's 100%
capacity,
.In the summer of 2017, the Dusseldorf Higher Regional Court decided to remove interim
measures on Gazprom's use of Opal's facilities imposed by the lawsuit. Poland finds that now
the decision of the European Court of Justice will not allow Gazprom to abandon gas transit
through the territory of Ukraine.
On September 10, on considering Poland's lawsuit, the EU Court of Justice overturned
the European Commission's decision of 2016, according to which Gazprom could fully use the
capacities of the OPAL gas pipeline. The Russian company reserves the right to use 50% of
OPAL's capacity, but it will no longer be able to participate in auctions for the remaining
40%.
####
So it is a continuation of previous legal ding-dongs.
The ruling is also important because of the reasoning behind it. The justices said the
main reason for their decision was not to preserve third-party access to pipelines that run
through Europe but to maintain the EU's energy-solidarity policy. This opens the door to
future litigation based on such policy
####
WTF? So it's not about allowing 3rd party access after all. The Court is ruling on
a completely different aspect! So this is about a different rule of the EU's Third Energy
Package that a) post dates the original Nord Stream; b) ignores that NSII follows the
same route and is not substantially different to NS1. The Third Energy Package entered in to
legislation in September 2009.* Excuse me, but 10 years late?
So it looks to me that the multipronged offensive against NSII though it has failed to
stymie off-shore NSII because it is almost completely outside the EU (well, we'll see what
happend with Denmark), it's temporarily struck gold with OPAL because it is on-shore EU.
Buuut, in leverageing against Russia to the benefit of Ukraine, it will directly impact
Russia-EU-Ukraine talks:
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak "I think that, in terms of negotiations, this
situation will be taken into account," **
Yet: Šefčovič said the decision was still very fresh, that his
services were still studying it, and that it underlined how important the principle of energy
solidarity is for Europe.
The ECJ ruled that the 2016 decision is "in breach of the principle of energy
solidarity" because it failed to properly assess how to balance Germany's interests against
the negative impacts on other EU member states .
Šefčovič avoided a direct answer, but insisted in the need of
long-term contracts with Gazprom .
He explained that the Ukrainian side was willing to apply European law, saying this
would bring clarity, transparency and efficiency. The letters sent by the Commission to both
parties also stressed the importance of long-term contracts, he said . ***
Cake and eat it, Brussels? Kiev complying with 'European Law' when even EU member states
do not? Ha ha ha! It all rather looks like vague horseshit to me. Open to creative
interpretation a la Marcel Marceau.
When I said, "Actually, it can't", I didn't mean Europe can't do it, I meant that the
uncertainty it introduces will not likely prove satisfactory for Russia to play the game,
since Brussels could arbitrarily decide to apply the cap any time it wishes Russia to transit
more gas through Ukraine, and pay it more money. The only real solution for Russia is to make
it crystal clear to Brussels that it is not going to sign a big fat transit contract with
Ukraine, and then business as usual, with Ukraine getting up to its monkeyshines and
demanding cheaper gas against the possibility of restricting exports to Europe. Ukraine has
demonstrated that it is just like the United States in the sense that if it has any leverage
over you, it will use it for its own ends. The west has made it clear it approves of these
tactics, even when they cause a temporary shutdown of gas exports to Europe.
Brussels thinks it is being cute, and that Russia will now have to do as Brussels wants it
to. Russia has little choice but to play hardball, and let it be known that it has no
intention of signing a long-term agreement with Ukraine to transit the same volumes of gas it
always did – what the fuck was Nord Stream II all about? If Europe – and
especially those perfidious krauts – want to cap the amount going through the Opal line
at 50% of capacity, so be it. Europe will just have to adjust to 60 BcM less supply; maybe
Uncle Sugar can send a fleet of LNG tankers to make up the difference, at double the cost.
But if Russia signs on to transit 60 BcM annually through Ukraine, it is right back where it
started, and built an expensive pipeline for nothing. Stand firm, Russia. Europe does not
have an alternative gas supplier, and nothing would teach it that lesson like a year or so of
scraping to find enough gas, and paying through the nose for it. It's always chunnering about
alternative suppliers – go and find them!
Absolutely insane. The EU/Anglo/US fascists are making their last stand and forcing Russia
into a corner with the only way out to continue transit through Ukraine. Oh, the humiliation
will be so sweet!
I think the Russian reaction will be a big Fuck You. Its all about LNG and the need to
save the US gas frackers and their debt. Oh, and to drive a wedge to further separate Russia
from Europe. Perfect, Russia can now focus on its future and forget that rotting corpse of
Western civilization.
Oh, I think Nord Stream II will still go through anyway, in the end. But a great deal depends
on Russia not signing another 10-year gas deal with Ukraine for 60 BcM annually. If it does
that, then there really is no difference from today, and Nord Stream II would just be an
extra line for use in emergencies. I can't believe any of the partners want that, as there
would be little opportunity for them to profit, which is why I wonder why Germany is being so
passive. Have they been persuaded to take one for Team Ukraine? Again, I find that hard to
believe. It is essentially a question of Ukraine being Europe's gas hub, or Germany. And it
should be more than plain to Europe by now that Ukraine will happily toss a wrench in the
transit works any time Washington tells it to.
Europe needs Russian gas. But it wants it on entirely its own terms, with Brussels in
control. Apparently it is not obvious that Europe is already in control – it is the
buyer. If it doesn't want gas, it doesn't need to buy it. But it does want it. It just wants
to wave the rule-book around every time it makes a purchase. Which would be obvious to it, if
ever there came a time when it wanted it and couldn't get it.
"... One problem with these sanctions is that they are largely after-the-fact when it comes to laying underwater pipe. Turkstream is already done. Nord Stream is about 75% done, but Congress still believes they can stop it . ..."
"... That gas for chicken deal can't be right. Russia produces twice as much chicken meat as the world average. In fact, they're overproducing so much they've started slowing down production. ..."
"... The energy sector is down to 10% of the economy. However all three new pipelines will turn on by the end of the year generating huge cash streams. Russia has solid trading partnerships with nations representing the vast majority of the people and trade on the planet. Food in Russia is great, and I mean really great. It's also very eclectic with cuisine from all over the world and produced to extremely high standards. GMO is illegal. No weird proteins in your cereal in the morning. American fast food tastes better in Russia because it's made with locally grown produce. ..."
"... My impression is that Russia is a continuing work in process in construction and reconstruction, everywhere. The stuff that is done is above Western standards, it amazes in gigantic scope and innovativeness. ..."
"... Some day soon we will need Russia as a friend. At that point we will have to deal with the incredibly bad karma that we created, out of irrational pure hatred and meaness. ..."
"... So the xenophobes claim that Nord Stream 2 would allow Russia to manipulate Europe's gas supply for political and other devious purposes. I searched and could not find any example in the past. But I was using Google which has become increasingly useless when searching on a number of topics. I did find articles about the Ukraine stealing the gas. Russia needs the money. I highly doubt they will screw over their investment. ..."
gjohnsit on Mon, 09/16/2019 - 6:22pm Congress is looking to impose
new sanctions on
Russia and any company that works with Russia.
Two bills in the House and the Senate, instead of penalizing the major gas companies involved, would target a perceived weak link:
the specialized pipe-laying companies working on Nord Stream 2 (and on the Russian state-controlled gas company Gazprom's TurkStream
project, which will bring Russian gas across the Black Sea to Turkey and eventually to Europe). The bills would sanction pipe-laying
companies involved in the project, freezing their U.S. assets and prohibiting them from doing U.S. business.
One problem with these sanctions is that they are largely after-the-fact when it comes to laying underwater pipe. Turkstream
is already done. Nord Stream is about 75% done, but Congress still believes they
can stop
it .
President Donald Trump has recommended Germany buy U.S. liquefied natural gas. That would benefit Cruz's home state of Texas,
the country's largest producer of natural gas.
A second problem is that Germany doesn't want us dictating their foreign policy. According to a recent survey, only 19 percent
of Germans considered the United States a trustworthy partner (well behind Russia).
Pluto's Republic on Mon, 09/16/2019 - 6:42pm snoopydawg on Mon, 09/16/2019 - 7:27pm
Oleg D.....something had a part in the Russia Gate saga and so his aluminum factory was punished. But then Trump relaxed them
after Oleg sold his part. Now McConnell is allowing Oleg to build a huge aluminum plant in Kentucky so off course he too is under
Vlad's thumb. I recently found out that Oleg has had ties to Mueller and others in our intelligence agencies. I don't think there
is one supposed Russian bad man involved in Russia Gate that doesn't have connections to Mueller and his goons. Misfud, Halpern
(?), and too many other people who played "the spy who loved me" game. Most of them tried to entrap someone in Trump's campaign.
If Europe wants to spend more money importing our gas and make their citizens pay higher prices then they need to be voted
out. Do their citizens even know about this? Do the people in Ukraine know why they are expected to freeze this winter or pay
higher prices for gas? Russia does seem to be made of teflon. Nothing seems to stick to them.
Oleg D.....something had a part in the Russia Gate saga and so his aluminum factory was punished. But then Trump relaxed
them after Oleg sold his part. Now McConnell is allowing Oleg to build a huge aluminum plant in Kentucky so off course he too
is under Vlad's thumb. I recently found out that Oleg has had ties to Mueller and others in our intelligence agencies. I don't
think there is one supposed Russian bad man involved in Russia Gate that doesn't have connections to Mueller and his goons.
Misfud, Halpern (?), and too many other people who played "the spy who loved me" game. Most of them tried to entrap someone
in Trump's campaign.
If Europe wants to spend more money importing our gas and make their citizens pay higher prices then they need to be voted
out. Do their citizens even know about this? Do the people in Ukraine know why they are expected to freeze this winter or pay
higher prices for gas? Russia does seem to be made of teflon. Nothing seems to stick to them.
I remember TOP making a big point about the aluminium saying it was Trump really kowtowing to Putin as sanctions were lifted.
Turns about that the majority of production was in Western Europe in particular Ireland. Something like upwards of 30K people
would end up losing their jobs.
around the web that Russia has become self-sufficient in food following a push by government. Food, btw that has no GMOs by
law. I think even their food exports have grown greatly. If true, even when Europe shakes off the leash, EU farmers won't have
the Russian market anymore.
What I know for a fact is that conscious enemy moles hell-bent on destroying the US could all retire; comforted that job is
being done by swiftly and completely by our rulers (both visible and not).
between Russia and China. Russian oil and gas in exchange for Chinese chickens. At the time I wondered at a nuclear power that
can't raise chickens as any peasant in America (and China) can.
around the web that Russia has become self-sufficient in food following a push by government. Food, btw that has no GMOs
by law. I think even their food exports have grown greatly.
If true, even when Europe shakes off the leash, EU farmers won't have the Russian market anymore.
What I know for a fact is that conscious enemy moles hell-bent on destroying the US could all retire; comforted that job
is being done by swiftly and completely by our rulers (both visible and not).
That gas for chicken deal can't be right. Russia produces twice as much chicken meat as the world average. In fact, they're
overproducing so much they've started slowing down production.
As of early 2019, Russia was manufacturing 33.7 kg of poultry per capita, the fourth-highest rate in the world, said Elena
Stepanova, deputy director of Rosptitsesoyuz, speaking at the Russian Meat and Feed Industry conference in Moscow.
The world's 2019 average rate is 16.2 kg per capita, and current production in Russia was already equal to domestic demand,
Stepanova said.
"In 2019, we forecast some increase in production, but this growth will be attributed primarily to exports. We consider
the balance on the domestic poultry market as fully built," Stepanova said, adding that overall poultry production in Russia
in 2019 was expected to grow by 2.7% compared to the previous year, to 5.11 million tons.
@jim
p Russia really played the long game when Putin put a halt to all EU food imports. Besides the food ban, the Russian government
began an investment program to bolster domestic production of its own food replacements. Russian cheese anybody? And the programs
just did not go to Russia's version of Big Agriculture factory farms--it went to small farmers also.
around the web that Russia has become self-sufficient in food following a push by government. Food, btw that has no GMOs
by law. I think even their food exports have grown greatly.
If true, even when Europe shakes off the leash, EU farmers won't have the Russian market anymore.
What I know for a fact is that conscious enemy moles hell-bent on destroying the US could all retire; comforted that job
is being done by swiftly and completely by our rulers (both visible and not).
Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested Saudi Arabia should buy Russian air defense systems to protect its oil facilities
from drone attacks, pointing to Iran and Turkey, who operate S-300 and S-400 missiles, respectively.
"Saudi Arabia needs to make a smart decision, as Iran did by buying our S-300, and as Mr. Erdogan did by deciding to buy
the most advanced S-400 Triumph air defense systems from Russia," Putin told reporters in Ankara on Monday. "These kinds of
systems are capable of defending any kind of infrastructure in Saudi Arabia from any kind of attack."
Putin was answering a question about the recent drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, which Washington has blamed
on Iran, though Yemen's Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility. A coalition led by Saudi Arabia invaded Yemen in 2015 and
has fought the Houthis there since.
the most advanced S-400 Triumph air defense systems
According to some, these are the advanced Trump air defense systems. Guaranteed to put out lots of hot air with stench of aftereffect.
He who dealt it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested Saudi Arabia should buy Russian air defense systems to protect its oil
facilities from drone attacks, pointing to Iran and Turkey, who operate S-300 and S-400 missiles, respectively.
"Saudi Arabia needs to make a smart decision, as Iran did by buying our S-300, and as Mr. Erdogan did by deciding to
buy the most advanced S-400 Triumph air defense systems from Russia," Putin told reporters in Ankara on Monday. "These kinds
of systems are capable of defending any kind of infrastructure in Saudi Arabia from any kind of attack."
Putin was answering a question about the recent drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, which Washington has blamed
on Iran, though Yemen's Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility. A coalition led by Saudi Arabia invaded Yemen in 2015
and has fought the Houthis there since.
... CLEAN ENERGY THAT OBSOLETIZES FOSSIL FUELS, ASSHOLES!!!
WE COULD LITERALLY SAVE THE WORLD, BE EVERYONE'S HEROES AGAIN, RESURRECT OUR ECONOMY, END OUR WARS, AND PULL THE FLOOR RIGHT
OUT FROM UNDERNEATH RUSSIA AND ALL THOSE GOSHAWFUL ISLAMIC TERRORISTS!
... CLEAN ENERGY THAT OBSOLETIZES FOSSIL FUELS, ASSHOLES!!!
WE COULD LITERALLY SAVE THE WORLD, BE EVERYONE'S HEROES AGAIN, RESURRECT OUR ECONOMY, END OUR WARS, AND PULL THE FLOOR RIGHT
OUT FROM UNDERNEATH RUSSIA AND ALL THOSE GOSHAWFUL ISLAMIC TERRORISTS!
@The
Liberal Moonbat to stop Islamist terrorists, we fund them to keep the forever wars going. I realize you know that, I just
could not help myself there. Whenever I hear we must "fight terrorism" my brain automatically goes back to all the things I have
read showing how we not only actively created those terrorists to fight our enemies who will not accept our American interests
dominating the world, but how many more we make every day we are there destroying their countries.
... CLEAN ENERGY THAT OBSOLETIZES FOSSIL FUELS, ASSHOLES!!!
WE COULD LITERALLY SAVE THE WORLD, BE EVERYONE'S HEROES AGAIN, RESURRECT OUR ECONOMY, END OUR WARS, AND PULL THE FLOOR RIGHT
OUT FROM UNDERNEATH RUSSIA AND ALL THOSE GOSHAWFUL ISLAMIC TERRORISTS!
The Russian economy is arguably the healthiest in the world. It's national debt barely shows as a blip on a bar graph with
other nations. She has enough cash to pay it off all her debt today. She sold almost all of her US government bonds.
Elvira Nabuillina, head of the Russian Bank, is perhaps the most competent national economic manager in the world. The
feeling in Russia is that she is too conservative and high interest rates are the major factor in slower economic growth.
Russia is the largest grower and exporter of wheat in the world, passing the US by a factor of two.
The energy sector is down to 10% of the economy. However all three new pipelines will turn on by the end of the year generating
huge cash streams. Russia has solid trading partnerships with nations representing the vast majority of the people and trade on
the planet. Food in Russia is great, and I mean really great. It's also very eclectic with cuisine from all over the world and
produced to extremely high standards. GMO is illegal. No weird proteins in your cereal in the morning. American fast food tastes
better in Russia because it's made with locally grown produce.
My impression is that Russia is a continuing work in process in construction and reconstruction, everywhere. The stuff
that is done is above Western standards, it amazes in gigantic scope and innovativeness.
I just visited the new aquarium in Vladivostok. It towers above the ones in Boston and LA, maybe by an order of magnitude.
The tallest building in Europe is in St. Petersburg, the next 5 tallest in Moscow City Center.
The longest bridge in Europe is in Russia. My impression is that Russia is a dynamic fast growing country and in contrast the
US can't do anything new. The US must have that gigantic defense budget, ten times that of Russia, to protect it from what? (hmmm).
There is nothing, I repeat nothing, that the US congress can do to slow down Russia today.
Some day soon we will need Russia as a friend. At that point we will have to deal with the incredibly bad karma that we
created, out of irrational pure hatred and meaness.
So the xenophobes claim that Nord Stream 2 would allow Russia to manipulate Europe's gas supply for political and other
devious purposes. I searched and could not find any example in the past. But I was using Google which has become increasingly
useless when searching on a number of topics. I did find articles about the Ukraine stealing the gas. Russia needs the money.
I highly doubt they will screw over their investment.
But to the Europeans I say, go fer it. You want to see manipulation of your energy: start up a heavy reliance on American LNG.
With the U.S, Russia, and China all jostling for position in Iraq's oil and gas industry both
north and south, Iraq's oil ministry last week reiterated its desire to have one or more foreign
partners in the Mansuriya gas field.
Situated in Diyala province, close to the Iran border,
Mansuriya is estimated to hold around 4.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, with plateau
production projected at about 325 million standard cubic feet per day
.
For the U.S., encouraging Iraq to optimise its gas flows so that it reduces its
dependency
for
power from Iran is the key consideration.
For Russia, Rosneft essentially bought control of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in
northern Iraq in November 2017, so power in southern Iraq figuratively will complete the set.
Securing oil and gas contracts across all of Iraq will allow Russia to establish an
unassailable political sway across the entire Shia crescent of power in the Middle East, stretching
from Syria through Lebanon (by dint of Iran), Jordan, Iraq (also helped by Iran), Iran itself, and
Yemen (via Iran).
From this base, it can effectively challenge the U.S.'s vital oil, gas,
and political ally in the region – Saudi Arabia. China, in the meantime, is operating to its own
agenda in South Pars Phase 11 and its West Karoun holdings.
Iraq, like Turkey, is still – nominally at least – not committing to either the Russia
or the U.S.,
preferring to play each off against the other for whatever they can get, and
the same applies in microcosm to the field of Mansuriya. Turkey itself was a key player in this gas
field through its national oil company Turkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO) until the middle
of last year – holding a 37.5 per cent stake – along with the Oil Exploration Company (25 per
cent), Kuwait Energy (22.5 per cent), and South Korea's KOGAS (15 per cent).
TPAO had signed the original development deal for Mansuriya back in 2011, promising Iraq's oil
ministry that it could be trusted to reach plateau production within 10 years at most, a senior
figure in the ministry told
OilPrice.com
last week. This was not an unreasonable schedule,
for which TPAO would be remunerated US$7.00-7.50 per barrel of oil equivalent, a relatively
generous amount compared to many of the previous awards from the ministry. TPAO agreed that the
first phase would mean production of at least 100 million cubic feet a day within 12 months from
the signing date.
Usually a forum for anodyne statements about international cooperation and proper
environmental stewardship, the lid was blown off the latest Arctic Council meeting in May when
Pompeo delivered an unabashedly martial and provocative speech that deserves far more attention
than it got at the time. So let's take a little tour of what may prove a historic proclamation
(in the grimmest sense possible) of a new Washington doctrine for the Far North.
"In its first two decades, the Arctic Council has had the luxury of focusing almost
exclusively on scientific collaboration, on cultural matters, on environmental research," the
secretary of state began mildly. These
were, he said, "all important themes, very important, and we should continue to do those. But
no longer do we have that luxury. We're entering a new age of strategic engagement in the
Arctic, complete with new threats to the Arctic and its real estate, and to all of our
interests in that region."
In what turned out to be an ultra-hardline address, Pompeo claimed that we were now in a new
era in the Arctic. Because climate change -- a phrase Pompeo, of course, never actually uttered
-- is now making it ever more possible to exploit the region's vast resource riches, a scramble
to gain control of them is now officially underway. That competition for resources has
instantly become enmeshed in a growing geopolitical confrontation between the U.S., Russia, and
China, generating new risks of conflict.
On the matter of resource exploitation, Pompeo could hardly contain his enthusiasm.
Referring to the derision that greeted William Seward's purchase of Alaska in 1857, he
declared:
"Far from the barren backcountry that many thought it to be in Seward's time, the
Arctic is at the forefront of opportunity and abundance. It houses 13% of the world's
undiscovered oil, 30% of its undiscovered gas, and an abundance of uranium, rare earth
minerals, gold, diamonds, and millions of square miles of untapped resources."
Of equal attraction, he noted, was the possibility of vastly increasing maritime commerce
through newly de-iced trans-Arctic trade routes that will link the Euro-Atlantic region with
Asia. "Steady reductions in sea ice are opening new passageways and new opportunities for
trade," he enthused. "This could potentially slash the time it takes to travel between Asia and
the West by as much as 20 days Arctic sea lanes could come [to be] the 21st century's Suez and
Panama Canals." That such "steady reductions in sea ice" are the sole consequence of climate
change went unmentioned, but so did another reality of our warming world. If the Arctic one day
truly becomes the northern equivalent of a tropical passageway like the Suez or Panama canals,
that will likely mean that parts of those southerly areas will have become the equivalents of
uninhabitable deserts.
As such new trade and drilling opportunities arise, Pompeo affirmed, the United States
intends to be out front in capitalizing on them. He then began bragging about what the Trump
administration had already accomplished, including promoting expanded oil and gas drilling in
offshore waters and also freeing up "energy exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge ," a pristine stretch
of northern Alaska
prized by environmentalists as a sanctuary for migrating caribou and other at-risk species.
Additional efforts to exploit the region's vital resources, he promised, are scheduled for the
years ahead.
A New Arena for Competition (and Worse)
Ideally, Pompeo noted placidly, competition for the Arctic's resources will be conducted in
an orderly, peaceful manner. The United States, he assured his listeners, believes in "free and
fair competition, open, by the rule of law." But other countries, he added ominously,
especially China and Russia, won't play by that rulebook much of the time and so must be
subject to careful oversight and, if need be, punitive action.
China, he pointed out, is already developing trade
routes in the Arctic, and establishing economic ties with key nations there. Unlike the United
States (which already has multiple military bases in the Arctic, including one at Thule in
Greenland, and so has a well-established presence there), Pompeo claimed that Beijing is
surreptitiously using such supposedly economic activities for military purposes, including,
heinously enough, spying on U.S. ballistic missile submarines operating in the region, while
intimidating its local partners into acquiescence.
He then cited events in the distant South China Sea, where the Chinese have indeed
militarized a
number of tiny uninhabited islands (outfitting them with airstrips, missile batteries, and the
like) and the U.S. has responded by
sending its warships into adjacent waters. He did so to warn of similar future military
stand-offs and potential clashes in the Arctic. "Let's just ask ourselves, do we want the
Arctic Ocean to transform into a new South China Sea, fraught with militarization and competing
territorial claims?" The answer, he assured his listeners, is "pretty clear." (And I'm sure you
can guess what it is.)
The secretary of state then wielded even stronger language in describing "aggressive Russian
behavior in the Arctic." In recent years, he claimed, the Russians have built hundreds of new
bases in the region, along with new ports and air-defense capabilities. "Russia is already
leaving snow prints in the form of army boots" there, a threat that cannot be ignored. "Just
because the Arctic is a place of wilderness does not mean it should become a place of
lawlessness. It need not be the case. And we stand ready to ensure that it does not become
so."
And here we get to the heart of Pompeo's message: the United States will, of course,
"respond" by enhancing its own military presence in the Arctic to better protect U.S.
interests, while countering Chinese and Russian inroads in the region:
"Under President Trump, we are fortifying America's security and diplomatic presence in the
area. On the security side, partly in response to Russia's destabilizing activities, we are
hosting military exercises, strengthening our force presence, rebuilding our icebreaker fleet,
expanding Coast Guard funding, and creating a new senior military post for Arctic Affairs
inside of our own military."
To emphasize the administration's sincerity, Pompeo touted the largest NATO and U.S. Arctic
military maneuvers since the Cold War era, the recently completed " Trident Juncture " exercise (which he
incorrectly referred to as "Trident Structure"), involving some 50,000 troops. Although the
official scenario
for Trident Juncture spoke of an unidentified "aggressor" force, few observers had any doubt
that the allied team was assembled to repel a hypothetical Russian invasion of Norway, where
the simulated combat took place.
Implementing the Doctrine
And so you have the broad outlines of the new Pompeo Doctrine, centered on the Trump
administration's truly forbidden topic: the climate crisis. In the most pugnacious manner
imaginable, that doctrine posits a future of endless competition and conflict in the Arctic,
growing ever more intense as the planet warms and the ice cap melts. The notion of the U.S.
going nose-to-nose with the Russians and Chinese in the Far North, while exploiting the
region's natural resources, has clearly been circulating in Washington. By August, it had
obviously already become enough of a commonplace in the White House (not to speak of the
National Security Council and the Pentagon), for the president to offer to buy Greenland.
And when it comes to resources and future military conflicts, it wasn't such a zany idea.
After all, Greenland does have abundant natural resources and also houses that U.S. base in
Thule. A relic of the Cold War, the Thule facility, mainly a radar base, is already being
modernized , at a cost of some $300 million, to better track Russian missile launches.
Clearly, key officials in Washington view Greenland as a valuable piece of real estate in the
emerging geopolitical struggle Pompeo laid out, an assessment that clearly wormed its way into
President Trump's consciousness as well.
Iceland and Norway also play key roles in Pompeo's and the Pentagon's new strategic
calculus. Another former Cold War facility, a base at Keflavik in Iceland has been reoccupied
by the Navy and is now being used in antisubmarine warfare missions. Meanwhile, the Marine
Corps has
stationed several hundred combat troops at bases near Trondheim, Norway, the first
permanent deployment of foreign soldiers on Norwegian soil since World War II. In 2018, the
Pentagon even
reactivated the Navy's defunct Second Fleet, investing it with responsibility for
protecting the North Atlantic as well as the Arctic's maritime approaches, including those
abutting Greenland, Iceland, and Norway. Consider these signs of heating-up times.
And all of this is clearly just the beginning of a major buildup in and regular testing of
the ability of the U.S. military to operate in the Far North. As part of Exercise Trident
Juncture, for example, the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman and its flotilla of
support ships were sent into the Norwegian Sea, the first time a U.S. carrier battle group had
sailed above the Arctic Circle since the Soviet Union imploded in 1991. Similarly,
Secretary of the Navy Richard Spencer recently announced
plans to send surface warships on trans-Arctic missions, another new military move. (U.S.
nuclear submarines make such journeys regularly, sailing beneath the sea ice.) This article first appeared on TomDispatch. More articles by:Michael T. Klare
Ukraine appears not to have noticed that its backing for the United States to persuade Europe
to reject Nord Stream II is supporting American pressure for Europe to buy American LNG
instead. Would they be transiting that to Europe through Ukraine? Hardly.
President Trump has repeatedly criticized the project, saying it would make Germany
"captive" to Russian interests, and urging the Europeans to buy fuel from the U.S. instead.
During their talks in Kyiv this week, Danilyuk discussed this issue at length with Bolton,
and he urged the U.S. government to block the project by imposing economic sanctions against
it. "Bolton was very supportive," Danilyuk says. "He understands that Nord Stream 2 is bad
for the United States."
If – extremely unlikely – that initiative were ever successful, and the EU
blew off Nord stream II in favour of American imported LNG the Ukies would still be out $3
Billion a year in transit fees. The USA wants to replace Russian gas supplies to Europe, not
supplement them.
As usual, Ukraine is so eager to hurt Russia that it does not care if it hurts itself in
doing it. Just the sort of ally the USA loves.
KIEV: Ukraine 's gas transport company
Ukrtransgaz has upgraded several gas pumping stations so it can provide gas to eastern and
southern regions of the country if there is a disruption in supply from Russia, the company
said on Wednesday.
More than a third of Russia's gas exports to the European Union cross
Ukraine, providing Kiev with valuable transit income.
Ukraine traditionally uses some of the gas pumped by Russia to European consumers for its
own needs in eastern and central regions and then compensates for this by deliveries from gas
storage located in the west of the country.
But the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement is due to expire in January and Ukrainian
energy authorities are worried that Moscow could stop gas supplies
through Ukraine, leaving some Ukrainian regions without gas in winter.
"As of today, Ukrtransgaz has implemented all the necessary technical and regulatory
solutions to create a reliable reverse scheme and it is ready for regular operation and can be
activated immediately if necessary," Uktransgaz said in a statement.
It said Ukraine had already reversed gas flows in 2009 when Russian gas giant Gazprom halted gas
supplies to Ukrainian consumers because of a price dispute.
Last month, Russian energy minister and several sources said Russia wanted to strike a
short-term deal with Kiev on gas transit to Europe when the current 10-year agreement expires
to buy time to complete pipelines that will bypass Ukraine.
But Kiev and its European allies want guarantees that Ukraine will remain a transit route
for Russian gas to Europe.
In January, European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic floated a proposal for the two
countries to agree a new 10-year transit contract, with a guaranteed minimum yearly transit
volume of 60 bcm and 30 bcm of additional flexibility.
Ukraine's energy firm Naftogaz said last month Kiev was still counting on Sefcovic's
proposal.
The potential for problems with the transit agreement, which brings Kiev around $3 billion
revenue per year, prompted Ukraine to increase its winter gas reserves by 18% compared with
last year to 20 billion cubic meters (bcm).
Naftogaz said this week Ukraine had stored 16.6 bcm of gas by Aug. 10, up from 13.38 bcm at
the same time last year.
Ukraine consumed 32.3 bcm of gas in 2018, 10.6 bcm of which was imported from European
markets outside Russia.
Relations between Kiev and Moscow plummeted after Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea
peninsula in 2014.
Ukraine halted its own purchases of Russian gas in 2015.
Federico Pieraccini's provides a useful review of the global Big Picture where he implies
in conclusion that Washington, London, Tel Aviv and Riyadh are understood to be the unhealthy
part of the globe by the vast majority of nations, which is the context of how we should view
Russia's Persian Gulf Collective Security proposal and the SCO & ASEAN's increasingly
collaborative security efforts reported by Escobar as linked above.
Trump continues his tree sitting on the thin unstable branches he forced himself to
occupy. One wonders what he'll do next to force himself even higher. Given NordStreaam 2's
almost finished completion, I'd expect a last-ditch sanctioning of EU nations if they use the
product it conveys.
Meanwhile, TurkStream is on schedule to begin
shipping gas in the last Q of 2019, the exact time not yet announced. Both strings, one for
Turkey another for Southeast Europe, will have a "throughput capacity of 15.75 billion cubic
meters each."
As we've seen, the desire to control energy sources has driven much conflict and underlies
Geopolitics to a large degree. The big problem already existing is the Saudis and the
animosity they have for Iran and Qatar. For those two heavily NatGas endowed nations, the
most logical destination for their product is Africa via pipeline across Saudi, under Red Sea
and emerging in Eritrea and/or Egypt. Such a project won't be undertaken until there's a
drastic change in Saudi attitude/leadership. And since Iran and Qatar face the same
distribution challenges for their product, I expect to see more joint efforts by them now
that Qatar's leadership has come to its senses.
"... The control of the energy corridors is of capital importance. By accusing Iran of attempting to " interrupt the flow of oil through the Straights of Hormuz ", Mike Pompeo announced that " the United States will defend freedom of navigation ". In other words, he has announced that the United States want to gain military control of this key area for energy supplies, including for Europe, by preventing above all the transit of Iranian oil (to which Italy and other European countries cannot in any case enjoy free access because of the US embargo). ..."
"... Natural gas might also have arrived directly in Italy from Russia, and from there be distributed to other European countries with notable economical advantages, via the South Stream route through the Black Sea. But the pipeline, already in an advanced stage of construction, was blocked in 2014 by the pressure of the United States and European Union itself, with heavy prejudice for Italy. ..."
"... In fact it was the reproduction of North Stream which continued, making Germany the centre of triage for Russian gas.. Then, on the basis of the " USA/EU strategic cooperation in the energy field " agreement stipulated in July 2018, US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU tripled. The triage centre was in Poland, from which was distributed the " Freedom Gas " which also arrived in Ukraine. ..."
"... Washington's objective is strategic – to hurt Russia by replacing Russian gas in Europe with US gas ..."
"... So what does Matteo Salvini have to say about all that? When he arrived in the " greatest democracy in the Western world ", he proudly declared - " I am part of a government which in Europe is no longer satisfied with breadcrumbs " ..."
Manlio Dinucci invites us to take a step back. He replaces the sabotage of these petrol tankers, for which Washington
accuses Teheran, in the context of the global energy policy of the United States. By doing so, he demonstrates that, contrary to
appearances, Mike Pompeo is not targeting Iran, but Europe.
While the United States prepared a new escalation of tension in the Middle East by accusing
Iran of attacking petrol tankers in the Gulf of Oman, Italian vice-Prime Minister Matteo
Salvini met with one of the artisans of this strategy in Washington, Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo, assuring him that " Italy wants to regain its place as the major partner on the
European continent of the greatest Western democracy ". Thereby he has allied Italy with the
operation launched by Washington.
The " Gulf of Oman affair " , a casus belli against Iran, is a carbon copy of the " Gulf of
Tonkin affair " of 4 August 1964, itself used as a casus belli to bomb North Vietnam, which was
accused of having attacked a US torpedo boat (an accusation which was later proved to be
false).
Today, a video released by Washington shows the crew of an alleged Iranian patrol boat
removing an unexploded mine from the hull of a petrol tanker in order to conceal its origin
(because the mine would allegedly have borne the inscription " Made in Iran ").
With this " proof " - a veritable insult to our intelligence - Washington is attempting to
camouflage the goal of the operation. It is part of the strategy aimed at controlling the world
reserves of oil and natural gas and their energy corridors [ 1 ]. It is no coincidence that Iran
and Iraq are in US crosshairs. Their total oil reserves are greater than those of Saudi Arabia,
and five times greater than those of the United States. Iranian reserves of natural gas are
approximately 2.5 times those of the USA. Venezuela finds itself targeted by the USA for the
same reason, since it is the country which owns the greatest oil reserves in the world.
The control of the energy corridors is of capital importance. By accusing Iran of attempting
to " interrupt the flow of oil through the Straights of Hormuz ", Mike Pompeo announced that "
the United States will defend freedom of navigation ". In other words, he has announced that
the United States want to gain military control of this key area for energy supplies, including
for Europe, by preventing above all the transit of Iranian oil (to which Italy and other
European countries cannot in any case enjoy free access because of the US embargo).
Low-cost Iranian natural gas might also have reached Europe by way of a pipeline crossing
Iraq and Syria. But the project, launched in 2011, was destroyed by the USA/NATO operation to
demolish the Syrian state.
Natural gas might also have arrived directly in Italy from Russia, and from there be
distributed to other European countries with notable economical advantages, via the South
Stream route through the Black Sea. But the pipeline, already in an advanced stage of
construction, was blocked in 2014 by the pressure of the United States and European Union
itself, with heavy prejudice for Italy.
In fact it was the reproduction of North Stream which continued, making Germany the centre
of triage for Russian gas.. Then, on the basis of the " USA/EU strategic cooperation in the
energy field " agreement stipulated in July 2018, US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to
the EU tripled. The triage centre was in Poland, from which was distributed the " Freedom Gas "
which also arrived in Ukraine.
Washington's objective is strategic – to hurt Russia by replacing Russian gas in
Europe with US gas. But we have no guarantees, neither on the price, nor on the time-scale for
US gas extracted from the bituminous shale by the technique known as fracking (hydraulic
fracturation), which is disastrous for the environment.
So what does Matteo Salvini have to say about all that? When he arrived in the " greatest
democracy in the Western world ", he proudly declared - " I am part of a government which in
Europe is no longer satisfied with breadcrumbs ". Manlio Dinucci
You gotta love the SCI. This shallowly-disguised Russian propaganda arm writes in the most
charming awkward idiomatic English, bouncing from a "false neutral" tone to a jingoistic
Amercia-phobic argot to produce its hit pieces.
Russian propaganda acts like Claude Raines in "Casablanca" : "i am shocked, shocked to
discover (geopolitics) going on here!" Geeeee, Europe and the US are in a struggle to
avoid Europe relying on Russia for strategic necessities like fuel, even if it imposes costs
on European consumers. If you have a dangerous disease, and your pharmacist is known for
cutting off their customers' vital drugs to extort them, you might consider using another
provider who not only doesn't cut off supplies, but also provides the police department that
protects you from your pharmacist's thugs who are known to invade customers' homes using the
profits from their own business.
The US provides the protective umbrella that limits Putin's adventurism. Russia cuts of
Ukraine's gas supplies in winter to force them into submission. Gasprom is effectively an arm
of the Russian military, weaponizing Russia's only product as a geopolitical taser. Sure, it
costs more to transport LNG across the Atlantic and convert it back to gas, but the profits
from that business are routinely funneled back to Europe in the form of US trade,
contributions to NATO, and the provision of the nuclear umbrella that protects Europeans from
the man who has publicly lamented the fall of the Soviet Union, called for the return of the
former SSRs, and violated the IRM treaty to place nuclear capable intermediate-range missiles
and cruise missiles within range of Europe and boasted about his new hypersonic weapons'
theoretic capability to decapitate NATO and American decision-making within a few minutes of
launch.
Oh, for pity's sake, Laugher. Everything...absolutely everything you attribute to Russia
in your post can be said of the U.S. I'm not much of a Wiki fan, but for expediency, here's
their view on military bases.
The establishment of military bases abroad enables a country to project power , e.g. to conduct
expeditionary
warfare , and thereby influence events abroad. Depending on their size and
infrastructure, they can be used as staging areas or for logistical,
communications and intelligence support. Many conflicts throughout modern history have
resulted in overseas military bases being established in large numbers by world powers and the
existence of bases abroad has served countries having them in achieving political and
military goals.
And this link will provide you with countries worldwide and their bases.
Note that Russia, in this particular list, has eight bases all contiguous to Russia. The
U.S. has 36 listed here with none of them contiguous to the U.S.' borders.
See better discussion at
platts.com "But US LNG could face problems of its own – the current low prices are forcing ever growing numbers of US producers
into bankruptcy. According to a recent report by Haynes and Boone, 90 gas and oil producers in the US and Canada have filed for bankruptcy
between January 2015 and the start of August 2016." So $2 price at Henry Hub should rise to at least $4 for companies to stay in business.
Notable quotes:
"... Less than half of the gas necessary for Europe is produced domestically, the rest being imported from Russia (39%), Norway (30%) and Algeria (13%). In 2017, gas imports from outside of the EU reached 14%. Spain led with imports of 31%, followed by France with 20% and Italy with 15%. ..."
"... The South Stream project, led by Eni, Gazprom, EDF and Wintershall, should have increased the capacity of the Russian Federation to supply Europe with 63 billion cubic meters annually, positively impacting the economy with cheap supplies of gas to Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Serbia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia. Due to the restrictions imposed by the European Union on Russian companies like Gazprom, and the continuing pressure from Washington to abandon the project and embrace imports from the US, the construction of the pipeline have slowed down and generated tensions between Europe and the US. Washington is piling on pressure on Germany to derail Nord Stream 2 and stop the construction of this important energy linkage. ..."
"... Further tension has been added since ENI, an Italian company that is a leader in the LNG sector, recently discovered off-shore in Egypt one of the largest gas fields in the world, with an estimated total capacity of 850 billion cubic meters. To put this in perspective, all EU countries demand is about 470 billion cubic meters of gas in 2017. ..."
"... s mentioned, LNG imported to Europe from the US costs about 20% more than gas traditionally received through pipelines. This is without including all the investment necessary to build regasification plants in countries destined to receive this ship-borne gas. Europe currently does not have the necessary facilities on its Atlantic coast to receive LNG from the US, introduce it into its energy networks, and simultaneously decrease demand from traditional sources. ..."
"... This situation could change in the future, with LNG from the US seeing a sharp increase recently. In 2010, American LNG exports to Europe were at 10%; the following year they rose to 11%; and in the first few months of 2019, they jumped to 35%. A significant decrease in LNG exports to Asian countries, which are less profitable, offers an explanation for this corresponding increase in Europe. ..."
"... Washington, with its LNG ships, has no capacity to compete in Asia against Qatar and Australia, who have the lion's share of the market, with Moscow's pipelines taking up the rest. The only large remaining market lies in Europe, so it is therefore not surprising that Donald Trump has decided to weaponize LNG, a bit as he has the US dollar . This has only driven EU countries to seek energy diversification in the interests of security. ..."
"... The European countries do not appear to be dragging their feet at the prospect of swapping to US LNG, even though there is no economic advantage to doing so. As has been evident of late, whenever Washington says, "Jump!", European allies respond, "How high?" ..."
"... The generalized hysteria against the Russian Federation, together with the cutting off of Iranian oil imports at Washington's behest, limit the room for maneuver of European countries, in addition to costing European taxpayers a lot. ..."
One of the most important energy battles
of the future will be fought in the field of liquid natural gas (LNG). Suggested as one of the main solutions to
pollution , LNG offers the possibility
of still managing to meet a country's industrial needs while ameliorating environmental concerns caused by other energy sources.
At the same time, a little like the US dollar, LNG is becoming a tool Washington intends to use against Moscow at the expense of
Washington's European allies.
To understand the rise of LNG in global strategies, it is wise to look at a
graph (page 7)
produced by the International Gas Union (IGU) where the following four key indicators are highlighted: global regasification capacities;
total volumes of LNG exchanged; exporting countries; and importing countries.
From 1990 to today,
the world has grown from 220 million tons per annum (MTPA) to around 850 MTPA of regasification capacity. The volume of trade
increased from 20-30 MTPA to around 300 MTPA. Likewise, the number of LNG-importing countries has increased from just over a dozen
to almost 40 over the course of 15 years, while the number of producers has remained almost unchanged, except for a few exceptions
like the US entering the LNG market in 2016.
There are two methods used to transport gas.
The first is through pipelines, which reduce costs and facilitate interconnection between countries, an important example of
this being seen in Europe's importation of gas. The four main pipelines for Europe come from four distinct geographical regions:
the Middle East, Africa, Northern Europe and Russia.
The second method of transporting gas is by sea in the form of LNG, which in the short term is more expensive, complex and
difficult to implement on a large scale. Gas transported by sea is processed to be cooled so as to reduce its volume, and then
liquified again to allow storage and transport by ship. This process adds 20% to costs when compared to gas transported through
pipelines.
Less than half of the gas necessary for Europe is
produced domestically, the
rest being imported from Russia (39%), Norway (30%) and Algeria (13%). In 2017, gas imports from outside of the EU reached 14%. Spain
led with imports of 31%, followed by France with 20% and Italy with 15%.
The construction of infrastructure to accommodate LNG ships is ongoing in Europe, and some European countries already have a limited
capacity to accommodate LNG and direct it to the national and European network or act as an energy hub to ship LNG to other ports
using smaller ships.
"All of Europe's LNG terminals are import facilities, with the exception of (non-EU) Norway and Russia which export LNG. There
are currently 28 large-scale LNG import terminals in Europe (including non-EU Turkey). There are also 8 small-scale LNG facilities
in Europe (in Finland, Sweden, Germany, Norway and Gibraltar). Of the 28 large-scale LNG import terminals, 24 are in EU countries
(and therefore subject to EU regulation) and 4 are in Turkey, 23 are land-based import terminals, and 4 are floating storage and
regasification units (FSRUs), and the one import facility in Malta comprises a Floating Storage Unit (FSU) and onshore regasification
facilities."
The countries currently most involved in the export of LNG are Qatar (24.9%), Australia (21.7%), Malaysia (7.7%), the US (6.7%),
Nigeria (6.5%) and Russia (6%).
Europe is one of the main markets for gas, given its strong demand for clean energy for domestic and industrial needs. For this
reason, Germany has for years been engaged in the Nord Stream 2 project, which aims to double the transport capacity of gas from
Russia to Germany. Currently the flow of the Nord Stream is 55 billion cubic meters of gas. With the new Nord Stream 2, the capacity
will double to 110 billion cubic meters per year.
The South Stream project, led by Eni, Gazprom, EDF and Wintershall, should have increased the capacity of the Russian Federation
to supply Europe with 63 billion cubic meters annually, positively impacting the economy with cheap supplies of gas to Bulgaria,
Greece, Italy, Serbia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia. Due to the restrictions imposed by the European Union on Russian companies
like Gazprom, and the continuing pressure from Washington to abandon the project and embrace imports from the US, the construction
of the pipeline have slowed down and generated tensions between Europe and the US. Washington is piling on pressure on Germany to
derail Nord Stream 2 and stop the construction of this important energy linkage.
Further tension has been added since ENI, an Italian company that is a leader in the LNG sector, recently discovered off-shore
in Egypt one of the largest gas fields in the world, with an estimated total capacity of 850 billion cubic meters. To put this in
perspective, all EU countries demand is about 470 billion cubic meters of gas in 2017.
ENI's discovery has generated important planning for the future of LNG in Europe and in Italy.
Problems have arisen ever since Donald Trump sought to oblige Europeans to
purchase LNG from the US in
order to reduce the trade deficit and benefit US companies at the expense of other gas-exporting countries like Algeria, Russia and
Norway. As mentioned, LNG imported to Europe from the US costs about 20% more than gas traditionally received through pipelines.
This is without including all the investment necessary to build regasification plants in countries destined to receive this ship-borne
gas. Europe currently does not have the necessary facilities on its Atlantic coast to receive LNG from the US, introduce it into
its energy networks, and simultaneously decrease demand from traditional sources.
This situation could change in the future, with LNG from the US seeing a sharp increase recently. In 2010, American LNG exports
to Europe were at 10%; the following year they rose to 11%; and in the first few months of 2019, they jumped to 35%. A significant
decrease in LNG exports to Asian countries, which are less profitable, offers an explanation for this corresponding increase in Europe.
But Europe finds itself in a decidedly uncomfortable situation that cannot be easily resolved. The anti-Russia hysteria drummed
up by the Euro-Atlantic globalist establishment aides Donald Trump's efforts to economically squeeze as much as possible out of European
allies, hurting European citizens in the process who will have to pay more for American LNG, which costs about a fifth more than
gas from Russian, Norwegian or Algerian sources.
Projects to build offshore regasifiers in Europe appear to have begun and seem unlikely to be affected by future political vagaries,
given the investment committed and planning times involved:
"There are currently in the region of 22 large-scale LNG import terminals considered as planned in Europe, except for the planned
terminals in Ukraine (Odessa FSRU LNG), Russia (Kaliningrad LNG), Albania (Eagle LNG) – Albania being a candidate for EU membership
– and Turkey (FSRU Iskenderun and FSRU Gulf of Saros).
Many ofthese planned terminals, including Greece (where one additional import terminal is planned – Alexandroupolis), Italy
(which is considering or planning two additional terminals – Porto Empedocle in Sicily and Gioia Tauro LNG in Calabria) , Poland
(FSRU Polish Baltic Sea Coast), Turkey (two FSRUs) and the UK (which is planning the Port Meridian FSRU LNG project and UK Trafigura
Teesside LNG). LNG import terminal for Albania (Eagle LNG), Croatia (Krk Island), Cyprus (Vassiliko FSRU), Estonia (Muuga (Tallinn)
LNG and Padalski LNG), Germany ( Brunsbüttel LNG), Ireland (Shannon LNG and Cork LNG), Latvia (Riga LNG), Romania (Constanta LNG),
Russia (Kaliningrad LNG) and Ukraine (Odessa).
Nine of the planned terminals are FSRUs: Albania, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Poland, Russia, Ukraine and the UK. "In
addition, there are numerous plans for expansion of existing terminals, including in Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands,
Poland, Spain, Turkey and the UK."
Washington, with its LNG ships, has no capacity to compete in Asia against Qatar and Australia, who have the lion's share
of the market, with Moscow's pipelines taking up the rest. The only large remaining market lies in Europe, so it is therefore not
surprising that Donald Trump has decided to weaponize LNG,
a bit as he has the US dollar . This has only driven EU countries to seek energy diversification in the interests of security.
The European countries do not appear to be
dragging their feet at the prospect of swapping to US LNG, even though there is no economic advantage to doing so. As has been
evident of late, whenever Washington says, "Jump!", European allies respond, "How high?" This, however, is not the case with
all allies. Germany is not economically able to interrupt Nord Stream 2. And even though the project has many high-level sponsors,
including former chancellor Gerhard Schröder, the project constantly seems to be on the verge of being stopped – at least in Washington's
delusions.
Even Eni's discovery of the gas field in Egypt has annoyed the US, which wants less competition (even when illegal, as in the
case of Huawei) and wants to be able to force its exports onto Europeans while maintaining the price of the LNG in dollars, thereby
further supporting the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in the same manner as the
petrodollar .
The generalized hysteria against the Russian Federation, together with the cutting off of Iranian oil imports at Washington's
behest, limit the room for maneuver of European countries, in addition to costing European taxpayers a lot. The Europeans appear
prepared to set whatever course the US has charted them, one away from cheaper gas sources to the more expensive LNG supplied from
across the Atlantic. Given the investments already committed to receive this LNG, it seems unlikely that the course set for the Europeans
will be changed.
I live in Europe. I can honestly say that the people I know here prefer Russian gas. People are very ticked off about how the
US meddled in their gas supply and the structuring of the pipelines. Most feel that even if US LNG WAS competitive with Russian
gas price for now, that the US would in some way either increase prices or use it in some other way to control or manipulate the
EU. And sentiment towards USA tends toward resentment and distrust. That's not to say they are necessarily pro-Russia, but definitely
a wave of anti US is present.
US LNG pricing is based on Henry Hub which today is under $2.30/mmbtu.
Even adding in liquefaction and shipping costs, the price to the end user is extremely low.
Henry hub is projected to be sub $3 for DECADES!
Combine the low price with spot deliveries (pipe usually demands long term contracting commitments), and US LNG actually has
strong rationale for being accepted.
The statement above that US LNG cannot compete against Australia in Asia is preposterously false due to the VERY high buildout
costs of the Aussie LNG infrastructure.
Next year, Oz's first LNG IMPORT terminal at Port Kembla may well be supplied with US LNG.
The US has shown itself to be unreliable as a supplier of anything. Political posturing will always take precedence over any
international transaction.
Oh, for pity's sake, Laugher. Everything...absolutely everything you attribute to Russia in your post can be said of the U.S.
I'm not much of a Wiki fan, but for expediency, here's their view on military bases.
The establishment of military bases abroad enables a country to
project power , e.g. to conduct
expeditionary warfare , and thereby influence
events abroad. Depending on their size and infrastructure, they can be used as
staging areas or for logistical, communications and
intelligence support. Many conflicts throughout modern history have resulted in overseas military bases being established in
large numbers by world powers and the existence of
bases abroad has served countries having them in achieving political and military goals.
And this link will provide you with countries worldwide and their bases.
Note that Russia, in this particular list, has eight bases all contiguous to Russia. The U.S. has 36 listed here with none
of them contiguous to the U.S.' borders.
Whilst the left wants to go full throttle towards Wind and Solar, no one knows that the natural gas lobby is behind these sources
because both sources need a backup. While everyone talks "carbon footprint" they never discusses plant efficiency ( or
in the terms of engines brake specific fuel consumption and turbine specific fuel consumption ) in terms of thermal efficiency.
You know the boring stuff that plant operators stress over to make sure when your wife wakes up @ 3 in the morning to feed the
baby, the lights do go on, and they are creating that wattage in an cost affective manner. With that said, the king of thermal
efficiency i.e. burning a fuel to create electricity, is the Combined Cycle Natural Gas Power Plant. These plants combines a stationary
gas turbine buring natural gas to spin a generator and a boiler on the back side capture the waste heat to create steam to spin
a turbine to again add an input to the generator for a current state of the art of 61% efficiency . That means only 39%
going up the stack or for steam cooling to get your "Delta T" for the steam cycle to work. This 61% is vs maybe in the mid 40's
for a coal, oil plant or in the case of Nuclear just waste heat with nothing going out a stack. The greater wattage per fuel burned,
and the modularization of these Combined Cycle Plants aka have a series of 100mw turbines and bring them on line as needed, make
this a win-win IMHO for a massive refurbishing of our Utility base, with a host of benefits, before Gen 3 & Gen 4 Nuclear truly
take off again. These plants could be a great stop gap before Gen 3 & 4 are a reality. All the macinations towards wind and solar
and their disavantages aka being bird vegamatics, vistas being spoiled and huge swaths of land being used for panels make no sense
vs energy density of efficient plants. We are the Natural Gas King, lets not flare it anymore, and really, really leverage it
here, help allies, and use it for bringing bad behaving children of the world to the table ifyou will, if you want the candy,
behave....
Why do we have to treat other countries like we're the parent? We aren't. They are equal and fully functioning countries quite
capable of determining their own political and economic future...which may involve not trading or interacting with the U.S. Particularly
if we demand of them conditions we ourselves would never accede.
The Lithuanian FSRU "Independence" which was delivered from Hyundai Heavy Industries in 2014 to the port of Klaipeda drove
energy costs for heating through the roof and perhaps is one of the reasons the Prime Minister at the time only came in third
in the latest presidential elections. You can stay reasonably warm, eat or have money for medicine and other necessities. Pick
2 ONLY. Thank you USSA
Brainsick as Pompeo the US Pork without character.
As Long as Russia dlivery theier gas constantly and for a much better price then Us-Shale idiots, the ziocons only can lose.
We Europeans are not very impressed.
The biggest Capitalist economy on the planet needs to use mob tactics to push its over priced wares- seems 'long term' is not
part of their hit-and-run operation.
Now as for the article; apart from a few Eastern European Countries (The Ukraine, Poland etc.), I have seen no proof whatsoever,
that Europe is shifting to US LNG.
As for "As has been evident of late, whenever Washington says, "Jump!", European allies respond, "How high?""; I am sorry,
but I think those days are over..... this can be seen in our Iranian stance, the 2 Russian pipelines - 1 being Nordstream II and
the other Turk-stream, increased trade with Russia, joining the the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and so on and
so on......
Slowly but surely the anti-Russia propaganda is dying. You can fool all the people some of the time, you can fool some people
all of the time (libtards), but you can't fool all the people all of the time. Europeans (the citizens) will question why they
should pay 20-30% more for their natural gas just to please America. Politicians better have an answer or change of policy if
they want to be reelected.
"... The control of the energy corridors is of capital importance. By accusing Iran of attempting to " interrupt the flow of oil through the Straights of Hormuz ", Mike Pompeo announced that " the United States will defend freedom of navigation ". In other words, he has announced that the United States want to gain military control of this key area for energy supplies, including for Europe, by preventing above all the transit of Iranian oil (to which Italy and other European countries cannot in any case enjoy free access because of the US embargo). ..."
"... Natural gas might also have arrived directly in Italy from Russia, and from there be distributed to other European countries with notable economical advantages, via the South Stream route through the Black Sea. But the pipeline, already in an advanced stage of construction, was blocked in 2014 by the pressure of the United States and European Union itself, with heavy prejudice for Italy. ..."
While the United States prepared a new escalation of tension in the Middle East by accusing
Iran of attacking petrol tankers in the Gulf of Oman, Italian vice-Prime Minister Matteo
Salvini met with one of the artisans of this strategy in Washington, Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo, assuring him that " Italy wants to regain its place as the major partner on the
European continent of the greatest Western democracy ". Thereby he has allied Italy with the
operation launched by Washington.
The " Gulf of Oman affair " , a casus belli against Iran, is a carbon copy of the " Gulf of
Tonkin affair " of 4 August 1964, itself used as a casus belli to bomb North Vietnam, which was
accused of having attacked a US torpedo boat (an accusation which was later proved to be
false).
Today, a video released by Washington shows the crew of an alleged Iranian patrol boat
removing an unexploded mine from the hull of a petrol tanker in order to conceal its origin
(because the mine would allegedly have borne the inscription " Made in Iran ").
With this " proof " - a veritable insult to our intelligence - Washington is attempting to
camouflage the goal of the operation. It is part of the strategy aimed at controlling the world
reserves of oil and natural gas and their energy corridors [ 1 ]. It is no coincidence if Iran and
Iraq are in US crosshairs. Their total oil reserves are greater than those of Saudi Arabia, and
five times greater than those of the United States. Iranian reserves of natural gas are
approximately 2.5 times those of the USA. Venezuela finds itself targeted by the USA for the
same reason, since it is the country which owns the greatest oil reserves in the world.
The control of the energy corridors is of capital importance. By accusing Iran of attempting
to " interrupt the flow of oil through the Straights of Hormuz ", Mike Pompeo announced that "
the United States will defend freedom of navigation ". In other words, he has announced that
the United States want to gain military control of this key area for energy supplies, including
for Europe, by preventing above all the transit of Iranian oil (to which Italy and other
European countries cannot in any case enjoy free access because of the US embargo).
Low-cost Iranian natural gas might also have reached Europe by way of a pipeline crossing
Iraq and Syria. But the project, launched in 2011, was destroyed by the USA/NATO operation to
demolish the Syrian state.
Natural gas might also have arrived directly in Italy from Russia, and from there be
distributed to other European countries with notable economical advantages, via the South
Stream route through the Black Sea. But the pipeline, already in an advanced stage of
construction, was blocked in 2014 by the pressure of the United States and European Union
itself, with heavy prejudice for Italy.
In fact it was the reproduction of North Stream which continued, making Germany the centre
of triage for Russian gas.. Then, on the basis of the " USA/EU strategic cooperation in the
energy field " agreement stipulated in July 2018, US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to
the EU tripled. The triage centre was in Poland, from which was distributed the " Freedom Gas "
which also arrived in Ukraine.
Washington's objective is strategic – to hurt Russia by replacing Russian gas in
Europe with US gas. But we have no guarantees, neither on the price, nor on the time-scale for
US gas extracted from the bituminous shale by the technique known as fracking (hydraulic
fracturation), which is disastrous for the environment.
So what does Matteo Salvini have to say about all that? When he arrived in the " greatest
democracy in the Western world ", he proudly declared - " I am part of a government which in
Europe is no longer satisfied with breadcrumbs ".
For those who still look in occasionally on what is happening with Nord Stream II, the
Americans are still blustering about killing it with new sanctions targeted against
pipelaying vessels and those who finance them, insure them, and so on. Its typical
dog-in-the-manger pressure is applied with a view to supplying Europe itself, with 'freedom
gas'. That, of course, is not using energy as a weapon – just so we're clear. It's
trying to force Europe to buy higher-priced American gas by using economics as a weapon.
Anyway, Germany is getting pretty fed up with it. Mutti Merkel has let the Americans know
that they are not going to be able to stop the project. She has let it be known that the
project already has European approval 'in principle', and that she is aware this is all about
Ukraine and forcing Russia to continue gas transit through it and supplement its budget with
transit fees. Germany's Ambassador to the United States, Emily Haber, has allegedly been even
more pointed than that.
"In particular, according to Bild, the German Ambassador to the United States, Emily
Haber, has sent a letter to the US Congress urging them to stop threatening Russian companies
PJSC NOVATEK and PJSC Gazprom, operating in Germany, with new sanctions. In her words, such
actions jeopardize the energy security of Germany and of the entire European Union.
In her letter, Emily Haber points out that since countries of the European Union have
adopted amendments to the Gas Directive, the issue of blocking the construction of the Nord
Stream-2 gas pipeline is closed for Europe: "All countries that criticized the Nord Stream-2
approved this document " . Given the situation, the German diplomat described any further
steps that Washington might take in order to hinder the development of the project as
counterproductive and potentially threatening the energy security of the EU."
Gosh; that reminds me – Chinese tariffs on American LNG more than doubled a couple
of weeks ago. As of June 1st, the tariff went from 10% to 25%. Not having much of an effect,
though – Chinese imports of American LNG have only dropped from 1.4 million tons during
the first 4 months of last year to .3 million tons over the same period this year. The
unclaimed LNG must be sold on the open market, and that drives the price down. Price has a
direct effect on American production, and if it goes too low production must be reined
in.
You're doing a great job, Mr. Trump – keep it up! Make America great again!
This is a typical Trump. He understands that "protection of Germany" is a profitable "protection racket" for the USA, but still lies.
Notable quotes:
"... U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said during a visit to Ukraine in May that he expected Congress to prepare legislation to sanction companies involved in the pipeline's construction. ..."
U.S. president reiterates threats over Nord Stream 2 project
Russia says efforts to block pipeline amount to 'blackmail'
'Germany Is Making a Tremendous Mistake by Relying on Pipeline,' says Trump 'Germany Is Making a Tremendous Mistake by Relying on
Pipeline,' says Trump Close Share
Donald Trump upped his criticism of Germany on
Wednesday as he threatened sanctions over Angela Merkel's continued support for a gas pipeline from Russia and warned that he could
shift troops away from the NATO ally over its defense spending.
Echoing previous threats about German support for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Trump said he's looking at sanctions to block the
project he's warned would leave Berlin "captive" to Moscow. The U.S. also hopes to export its own liquefied natural gas to Germany.
"We're protecting Germany from Russia, and Russia is getting billions and billions of dollars in money from Germany" for its gas,
Trump told reporters at the White House during a meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda.
The comments were the latest sign of how U.S.-German ties have eroded in recent years. The U.S. president has repeatedly rebuked
Merkel's government over the pipeline project, trade policies and defense spending. Germany, in turn, has criticized Trump's moves
to abandon international agreements, including on climate change and Iran.
Though he didn't say which companies or governments could potentially face sanctions, Trump's comments about the pipeline generated
a swift response from Moscow, which said the American president was engaging in "nothing other than blackmail and a form of unfair
competition," according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Merkel and Trump met most recently last week during anniversary celebrations of the 1944 D-Day invasion. That gathering came days
after the EU's longest-serving leader took Trump to task at a commencement address at Harvard University, urging students to "tear
down walls" and not to treat "lies as truth." Without naming the U.S. leader, Merkel left little doubt as to whom she might mean
to a crowd who cheered her on.
U.S. opposition to the gas pipeline is bipartisan, out of concern that Russia could use its supplies of natural gas to exert pressure
on Western European nations dependent on the fuel. U.S. lawmakers also fear that with an added northern pipeline for its gas, Russia
could more easily cut off fuel to Ukraine, which is now a key transit country to Europe.
"Germany is making a tremendous mistake" by relying on the pipeline from Russia, Trump said during a joint news conference with
Duda.
Regardless of the political controversy, the Nord Stream 2 project has
faced delays and may not be ready to transport gas until the second half of 2020, according to a report made public by Denmark's
Energy Agency.
Nord Stream 2 organizers argue a new pipeline is needed to guarantee supplies will continue to flow in the coming decades as EU
domestic reserves shrink and import needs rise. Opponents of the project say it hurts the bloc's cohesion and weakens its Energy
Union strategy aimed at integrating the region's gas and power markets, diversifying energy supplies and improving security.
Uniper SE, Engie SA, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, OMV AG and BASF SE's Wintershall are European partners of Russia's Gazprom PJSC in
financing the project to expand Nord Stream by 55 billion cubic meters a year. Russia supplies a third of Europe's gas and has no
plans to give up its share to the expanding list of competitors from Norway to the U.S.
Trump, speaking during the news conference Wednesday, said that Poland signed a contract to purchase an additional $8 billion
of liquefied natural gas from U.S. companies, on top of $25 billion already under contract.
Trump said he'll meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Group of 20 summit in Japan at the end of the month, though
its not clear the pipeline project will be on their agenda.
2016 data. Source: Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators
U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said during a visit to Ukraine in May that he expected Congress to prepare legislation to sanction
companies involved in the pipeline's construction.
Senators Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, and Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat, have drafted a bill that would target U.S.
sanctions at vessels laying the pipeline and deny U.S. visas to executives from companies linked to the ships. The legislation would
also block transactions in U.S.-based property or interests belonging to those individuals and would penalize entities that provide
insurance to the project.
In the latest sign of Trump's frustration over German defense spending, the president said he's discussed sending as many as 2,000
more U.S. troops to Poland -- and might take them from Germany since he believes Berlin isn't spending enough on defense as a partner
in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. There are more than 30,000 U.S. troops in Germany.
Under an agreement reached during the Obama administration, NATO members committed to spending 2% of GDP on defense by the mid-2020s,
a level only seven
nations were estimated to have reached in 2018.
"Germany's at 1%, they should be at 2%," Trump said. According to NATO documents, spent about 1.2 percent of GDP on defense in
2018.
The U.S. already has a few thousand troops in Poland as part of its role in NATO. Trump's move, if carried out, would add to that,
but it wasn't clear if the forces would be permanently based there or just rotated through.
-- With assistance by Daryna Krasnolutska, Nick Wadhams, Daniel Flatley, Stepan Kravchenko, Ewa Krukowska, and Vanessa Dezem
"... They will be the ones to blackmail Europe and Germany if Europe becomes dependent on LNG from the U.S. So everything U.S. administrations are yelling at others is just projection, one knows immediately that it is in fact what the U.S. is doing under the veil or will be doing when the need/opportunity will arise. ..."
"... Trump is not an aberration, it is just how the U.S. always behaved, but now it is in the open, for all to see, the crassness and the bullying. ..."
"... Germany is the linchpin of the world and the U.S. (and others) is becoming hysterical at the possibility of not keeping the Germans down any longer… ..."
"... American Jewish intellectuals have really jumped the shark since the Iraq War. The most outlandish, slandering statements are stuffed into their essays and they trash whole peoples at the slightest “offence” to their worldview. ..."
If Daenerys Targaryen had announced her desire to use her last dragon to torch Moscow and
Saint Petersburg, the Neocons would have lionized her as the womanly exemplar of democracy
and wise foreign policy that produces peace and justice for all.
Neocons are very much the evil they call us to battle.
I had to rub my eyes with incredulity when I read that.
If Russia wants to weaken Ukraine, why did it ever build a pipeline through it in the first
place? Russia didn't stop using the Ukraine pipeline intially for political reasons. It was
because Ukraine was stealing gas meant for pass-through to other European countries and it
wasn't paying its bills. Don't pay your utility bills and see what happens.
Russia does not want to "control" Germany with Nord Stream, it wants to make money. And
Germany wants cheap gas. Strictly business.
And how can Russia control Germany with Nord Stream when it knows that the first time it
shuts off gas for political reasons would be the last. Because Russia knows that Germany will
find alternative suppliers and never come back. The Russians ain't stupid.
Russia wants bilateral trade with Europe without the Global Cop Gorilla perpetually in the
background arrogant calling the shots.
The final reconciliation of Europe and Russia should have occurred 25 years but didn't
because the ham-fisted United States threw up the fear-monger barriers. And that was because
its National Security States wants an existential "enemy" to justify its massive costs.
The sooner Europe ejects the U.S. War Machine from its territories the better. Better for
Europe, better for Russia and better for the American taxpayers.
I am with SteveM here. And I was shocked to see MarkVA’s comment. Mark has proved to
be a respectable commentator, especially on Rod’s Blog, with very astute and sensible
observations. It seems that tribalism is clouding his judgment when observing the world outside
the U.S.
It is well known that the Soviets and the Russians always keep their end of the bargain and
they know if they don’t do so they will end up loosing and being vilified. Whereas the
U.S. always breaks its agreements, it is not thrust worthy (not agreement capable). Imagine
depending on such an economic partner?!
They will be the ones to blackmail Europe and Germany if Europe becomes dependent on LNG
from the U.S. So everything U.S. administrations are yelling at others is just projection, one
knows immediately that it is in fact what the U.S. is doing under the veil or will be doing
when the need/opportunity will arise.
Trump is not an aberration, it is just how the U.S. always behaved, but now it is in the
open, for all to see, the crassness and the bullying.
Germany is the linchpin of the world and the U.S. (and others) is becoming hysterical at
the possibility of not keeping the Germans down any longer… And Germany is moving
ahead. It just sacrificed West Bank, and declared the BDS movement illegal as a soap to
Israelis, to burnish its credentials with those blackmailers, so that it will become free to
re-orient its politics and strategic configuration as it needs and wants.
fabian, May 23, 2019 at 2:33 pm
Gas? Where is the problem? Russian gas is cheaper that’s it. Furthermore, there is
another pipeline that’s going to bring gas from the Mediterranean to Europe and another
from Qatar.
And if all else fails and Russia flexes its muscles (which ones by the way) do you think
that the over-indebted America will not sell its gas to the Germans?
And yes, it’s not a good strategy to be too dependent on America. It quickly takes the
goods away when its interests are at stake.
Tiktaalik, May 24, 2019 at 5:14 pm
@MarkVA
>>The Nord Stream I and II gas pipe lines (aka Molotov-Ribbentrop Gas Lines), a
Gazprom initiative, has everything to do with weakening Ukraine and increasing German energy
dependence on Russia;
How could NS increase German energy dependence on Russia? It will be the very same gas which
at the moment flows through the Ukraine.
Surely, NS would decrease anybody’s dependence from the Ukraine. So what?
Tiktaalik, May 24, 2019 at 5:18 pm
@MarkVA
>>Oh, and some lesser European countries were partitioned by the important European
countries. So yes, Europe was quite busy spreading joy and happiness all around:
It’s a bit rich when it’s coming from an American. You’re still in
Plymouth, right?
Kouros, May 24, 2019 at 11:35 pm
@MarkVA (May 23, 2019 at 8:12 pm )
That was a hit with the posting on Ukraine…
To bad it wasn’t accompanied by the Recognition of the US administration that the
Golan Heights, taken from Syria by Israel after a war, against all worlds dictum, now belongs
to Israel.
At least in Crimea, which by administrative fiat was moved within USSR from Russia to
Ukraine in the 1950s, there was a referendum.
And for me, US is Devil Incarnate since it put a target of nuclear missiles on my mother
country. May the curse of a 1000 hells be upon it.
Josep, May 25, 2019 at 5:05 am
Reading sites like Russia Insider gave me the notion that Germany would be better off as
allies with Russia than with the USA. After all, Russia and Germany:
* are on the metric system
* have languages that use grammatical gender
* share the same 220-volt “Schuko” power plugs and sockets
* implement Civil Law, and most importantly
* aren’t separated by a whole ocean.
American Jewish intellectuals have really jumped the shark since the Iraq War. The most
outlandish, slandering statements are stuffed into their essays and they trash whole peoples at
the slightest “offence” to their worldview.
There are strong anti-German currents in American culture and politics, going back to at
least WW1 and also manifest today (no other treaty ally is treated with such dismissive
hostility by the Trump administration as Germany). But they are regarded as completely normal
and rarely get critical attention, whereas German anti-Americanism is treated as a pathology or
some kind of sacrilege…the German-American relationship (calling it
“friendship” is a lie) is profoundly asymmetrical.
Agreed in both counts. The casual anti-white racism thrown about by the likes of such people
(let’s not forget Davids Medienkritik, Little Green Footballs, Grouchy Old Cripple and
Dissident Frogman) is a lot scarier than any jumpscare I’ve encountered. And in the case of
German_reader’s comment, It’d be interesting to consider how Trump reconciles his
hostility towards Germany with his own German heritage.
At one point in the Iraq War, the German news outlet Der Spiegel had readers rate their
opinion of president Bush on their website on a scale of 1 (most favorable) to, if I recall
correctly, 6 (least favorable). After seeing public opinion of Bush in Germany overwhelmingly
“least favorable”, users of FreeRepublic went to this poll and attempted to
gerrymander the results by selecting “most favorable”, deleting their site cookies,
and repeating so as to make it look like more people in Germany supported Bush than opposed. This
was called “freeping”.
"... North Stream is a problem as the goal is to economically weaken Russia, tie the EU to the USA via energy supplies and support
our new client state -- Ukraine. ..."
"... But this is also related to attempts to prevent/weaken the alliance of Russia and China. As geopolitical consequences of this
alliance for the USA-led neoliberal empire are very bad ..."
Best bet is for Russia to want to trade with the US and Europe. The gas pipeline will not be enough leverage on Germany
as it provides 9% of their needs.
Yes. And that's against the USA interests (or more correctly the US-led neoliberal empire interests). North Stream is a
problem as the goal is to economically weaken Russia, tie the EU to the USA via energy supplies and support our new client state
-- Ukraine.
As you know, nothing was proven yet in Russiagate (and DNC hacks looks more and more like a false flag operation, especially
this Guccifer 2.0 personality ), but sanctions were already imposed. And when the US government speaks "Russia" in most cases
they mean "China+Russia" ;-). Russia is just a weaker link in this alliance and, as such, it is attacked first. Russiagate is
just yet another pretext after MH17, Magnitsky and such.
To me the current Anti-Russian hysteria is mainly a smokescreen to hide attempt to cement cracks in the façade of the USA neoliberal
society that Trump election revealed (including apparent legitimization of ruling neoliberal elite represented by Hillary).
And a desperate attempt to unite the society using (false) war propaganda which requires demonization of the "enemy of the
people" and neo-McCarthyism.
But this is also related to attempts to prevent/weaken the alliance of Russia and China. As geopolitical consequences of
this alliance for the USA-led neoliberal empire are very bad (for example, military alliance means the end of the USA global
military domination; energy alliance means that is now impossible to impose a blockade on China energy supplies from Middle East
even if Iran is occupied)
In this sense the recent descent into a prolonged fit of vintage Cold War jingoistic paranoia is quite understandable. While,
at the same time, totally abhorrent. My feeling is that unless Russia folds, which is unlikely, the side effects/externalities
of this posture can be very bad for the USA. In any case, the alliance of Russia and China which Obama administration policies
forged spells troubles to the global neoliberal empire dominated by the USA.
Trump rejection of existing forms of neoliberal globalization is one sign that this process already started and some politicians
already are trying to catch the wind and adapt to a "new brave world" by using preemptive adjustments.
Which is why all this Trump-Putin summit hysteria is about.
Neither hard, nor soft neoliberals want any adjustments. They are ready to fight for the US-led neoliberal empire till the
last American (excluding, of course, themselves and their families)
The Saker: What will happen once Nord Stream II is finished? Where is Europe heading
next, especially in its relationship with the USA and Russia?
Dmitry Orlov: The new pipelines under the Baltic and the Black Sea will be completed, along
with the second LNG installation at Sabetta, and Russia will go on supplying natural gas to
Europe and Asia. I suspect that the fracking extravaganza in the US is entering its end game
and that the dream of large-scale LNG exports to Europe will never materialize.
The nations of Europe will gradually realize that its relationship with Russia is mostly
beneficial while its relationship with the US is mostly harmful, and will make certain
adjustments. The Ukraine, its natural gas pipeline system decrepit and beyond repair, will
continue to import natural gas from Europe, only now the methane molecules will actually flow
to it from the west rather from the east.
"... Everything I understand about German behavior in regards to 3rd parties is totally in lockstep with the US - never mind that Germany has been occupied by the US since WW2 - so why not a scheme to build more Russian dependency on the West? ..."
"... The people who destroyed the USSR are still in power; their whole existence depends on whoring out Russia to the West because that is all they have ever done. They can't not stop because to stop would be an act of self-annihilation. Russian elites, at least a large faction of them, desperately want back into the clubhouse, if they cant get in they will find something else to do until the moment the clubhouse door is opened to them again, and then they will fall all over themselves to get in. ..."
Only a few weeks ago, German politicians and media were up in arms protesting to the Trump
administration for interfering in Berlin's internal affairs. There were even outraged
complaints that Washington was seeking "regime change" against Chancellor Angela Merkel's
government.
Those protests were sparked when Richard Grenell, the US ambassador to Germany,
warned German companies involved in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia that they
could be hit with American economic sanctions if they go ahead with the Baltic seabed
project.
Earlier, Grenell provoked fury among Berlin's political establishment when he openly gave
his backing to opposition party Alternative for Germany. That led to consternation and
denunciations of Washington's perceived backing for regime change in Berlin. They were public
calls for Grenell to be expelled over his apparent breach of diplomatic protocols.
Now, however, Germany is shamelessly kowtowing to an even more outrageous American
regime-change plot against Venezuela.
... ... ...
Perhaps this policy of appeasement is also motivated by Berlin's concern to spare the
Nord Stream 2 project from American sanctions.
When NS2 is completed later this year, it
is reckoned to double the capacity of natural gas consumption by Germany from Russia. That will be
crucial for Germany's economic growth.
Another factor is possible blackmail of Berlin by Washington.
Recall the
earth-shattering revelations made by American whistleblower Edward Snowden a few years back when he
disclosed that US intelligence agencies were tapping the personal phone communications of
Chancellor Merkel and other senior Berlin politicians.
Recall, too, how the German state
remarkably
acquiesced
over what should
have been seen as a devastating infringement by Washington.
The weird lack of action by Berlin over that huge violation of its sovereignty by the Americans
makes one wonder if the US spies uncovered a treasure trove of blackmail material on German
politicians.
Berlin's pathetic kowtowing to Washington's interference in Venezuela begs an ulterior
explanation. No self-respecting government could be so hypocritical and duplicitous.
Whatever Berlin may calculate to gain from its unscrupulous bending over for Washington,
one thing seems clear, as Russian envoy Nebenzia warned: "One day you are next" for American
hegemonic shafting.
Well, Merkel is doing a good job of protecting Germany's interests by opposing the U.S.
regarding North Stream 2.
The German stand on Venezuela is disappointing, but they might be
figuring no skin off their back, since Venezuela is not in Europe, so might as well appease cheeto head.
I am personally suspicious of Nord Stream 2 and think Russia is making a HUGE mistake.
Everything I understand about German behavior in regards to 3rd parties is totally in
lockstep with the US - never mind that Germany has been occupied by the US since WW2 - so why
not a scheme to build more Russian dependency on the West? The Russians are fools to have
built this pipeline - they should be moving away from Europe, not foolishly trying to sew
themselves onto it as an appendage. This will come back to bite them on the ***, mark my
words.
And this, in a nutshell, is why Russia is always taking one step forward and two back. The
people who destroyed the USSR are still in power; their whole existence depends on whoring
out Russia to the West because that is all they have ever done. They can't not stop because
to stop would be an act of self-annihilation. Russian elites, at least a large faction of
them, desperately want back into the clubhouse, if they cant get in they will find something
else to do until the moment the clubhouse door is opened to them again, and then they will
fall all over themselves to get in.
The Duran's Alex Christoforou and Editor-in-Chief Alexander Mercouris discuss the Munich Security Conference,
and Angela Merkel's stunning defiance of Mike Pence, after the United States Vice President urged Germany to cease
its economic activities with Russia and China, starting with Nord Stream 2 and the deepening energy links to
Russia.
How come Poland's at 6% & Lithuania is at 29%? Don't they both import American LNG?
And how come Estonia is at 3%? Sounds like the Estonians import Russian gas. Bulgaria's at
37%. Now what were the assurances John McCain gave Sofia regarding alternative gas options to
Southstream? Please spell them out for me again, I'm pretty slow, you know!
What is so ridiculously ClusterFrack-Failed about this, is that BGR nixed a CNG Pipeline
Deal with RUS under pressure from the EU_EXECUTIVES.
Instead of Jobs and Transit Fee Income, BGR will have to stand in line and pay more for
CNG since TRK picked up the Pipeline. The Southeastern EUROZONE are STILL going to Import
that same RUS_CNG.
The project created controversy due to non-compliance with European Union competition and energy
legislation, in particular the Third Energy Package , which
stipulates the separation of companies' generation and sale operations from their
transmission networks.
It was seen as rival to the Nabucco pipeline project. Construction
of the Russian onshore facilities for the pipeline started in December 2012. The project
was cancelled by Russia in December 2014 following obstacles from Bulgaria and the EU, the
2014 Crimean
crisis , and the imposition of European sanctions on Russia. The project has been
replaced by proposals of Turkish Stream and Tesla pipeline .
Its interesting that in Asia, the USG also says it wants to help build infrastructure for
LNG use (as an element of its anti China strategy) but then also wants Asian nations like
Vietnam to buy American LNG (to reduce America's trade deficits, etc.) once the
infrastructure is in place.
Except it would be economically stupid for anyone in Asia to buy more expensive US LNG,
when adequate supplies of LNG at lower costs are available from nations like Australia,
Malaysia and Indonesia and of course Qatar.
I guess when you really can't compete because you subsidize the military and FIRE sectors
and don't invest in your society, you resort to government interference in the market or
"regime change", and then criticize anyone for doing the same thing. Hypocrisy at its
finest.
" it has offered to sell high-priced LNG from the United States (via port facilities that do
not yet exist in anywhere near the volume required)." -- facilities that are themselves
dangerous and highly controversial. Oregon is in the midst of one of those controversies,
trying to stop construction of an LNG export "facility" at Coos Bay, a scenic but impoverished
port on the southern Oregon coast. It would come with a pipeline across the state, which is
also highly unwelcome. LNG facilities are a fuel-air bomb waiting to happen, if it should leak
-- the Oregon coast is subject to Magnitude 9 subduction quakes and tsunamis. The project would
also involve massive dredging that would threaten the local seafood industry. And gas pipelines
are subject to their own threats, doubly so in earthquake country. Maybe they can be built
uncontested in Europe -- but I doubt it.
"... Good article. It accurately spells it out about the contempt and disrespect that America has of other countries, and the coercive tactics that America often applies to them. ..."
"... It really goes back to what Marine corps Major General Smedley Butler once reflected on, in 1933, about the U.S.,. He said: "I spent thirty-three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle-man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism". Apparently, that is how other countries see us operating as too. ..."
For another example I turn to U.S. Ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, who just sent a
letter to both Uniper and BASF to stop work on the Nordstream 2 pipeline or else face
further U.S. sanctions.
The Bild report raised the ire of some German politicians in Berlin. Fabio De Masi, a top
Left Party MP, demanded that the government reprimand Grenell, saying
: "The US Ambassador seems to make an impression that he is a viceroy of the Washington
emperor.
This is the real face of Trumpian diplomacy. Stop acting in your own best interest or we'll
bankrupt you.
The situation at this point is pretty clear. While our military strength is formidable it is
not, however, a blank check to enforce political edicts anymore.
In a world where U.S. prosperity is dependent on the prosperity of the entire world,
threatening financial ruin is just as much of a bluff as threatening physical ruin.
And we're seeing that bluff being called a lot. Country after country are now simply showing
U.S. strongmen like Pompeo, Bolton, Mattis and even Trump himself, the door and there is little
to no real response from them.
Trump tried to scare Erdogan into submission with sanctions and a collapse of the lira
last year. When it didn't work, Erdogan knew where his allies were. He acted accordingly,
siding with Putin's energy security for Turkey rather than a mercurial U.S.
India did the same thing over the purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems. They
said some nice things, invited us to talks and then sent us packing without a deal.
Germany refuses to yield on Nordstream 2.
Qatar was the first to pull out of the Syrian conflict and then turned around and
negotiated a major exploration and development deal with Iran in the North Pars gas
field.
Even Japan is in constant talks with Russia about working out their differences
officially (again, against U.S. wishes) and sign a peace treaty. Japan needs Russian energy
badly and Putin is patient enough to wait Prime Minister Shinzo Abe out while calling out his
hypocrisy.
Good article. It accurately spells it out about the contempt and disrespect that America
has of other countries, and the coercive tactics that America often applies to them.
It
really goes back to what Marine corps Major General Smedley Butler once reflected on, in
1933, about the U.S.,. He said: "I spent thirty-three years and four months in active
military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I
served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that
period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle-man for Big Business, for Wall
Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism".
Apparently, that is how other countries see us operating as too.
Things have been quite active in the Eastern Mediterranean lately, with Israel, Cyprus and
Greece pushing forward for the realization of the EastMed pipeline, a new gas conduit destined
to diversify Europe's natural gas sources and find a long-term reliable market outlet for all
the recent Mediterranean gas discoveries. The three sides have reached an agreement in late
November (roughly a year after signing the MoU) to lay the pipeline, the estimated cost of
which hovers around $7 billion (roughly the same as rival TurkStream's construction cost). Yet
behind the brave facade, it is still very early to talk about EastMed as a viable and
profitable project as it faces an uphill battle with traditionally difficult Levantine
geopolitics, as well as field geology.
The EastMed gas pipeline is expected to start some 170 kilometers off the southern coast of
Cyprus and reach Otranto on the Puglian coast of Italy via the island of Crete and the Greek
mainland. Since most of its subsea section is projected to be laid at depths of 3-3.5
kilometer, in case it is built it would become the deepest subsea gas pipeline, most probably
the longest, too, with an estimated length of 1900km. The countries involved proceed from the
premise that the pipeline's throughput capacity would be 20 BCM per year (706 BCf), although
previous estimates were within the 12-16 BCm per year interval. According to Yuval Steinitz,
the Israeli Energy Minister, the stakeholders would need a year to iron out all the remaining
administrative issues and 4-5 years to build the pipeline, meaning it could come onstream not
before 2025.
The EastMed gas pipeline is expected to start some 170 kilometers off the southern coast
of Cyprus and reach Otranto on the Puglian coast of Italy via the island of Crete and the
Greek mainland.
Cyprus,Crete,Greece, Italy....
Yes, very stable EU supply line going through the most stable countries in the EU.
Yeah, I'm having trouble with the sub sea depth numbers too, despite the route cuts the
conflicts to a half a dozen from an infinite number.
Intuitively, shipping LNG offers comparable delivery price albeit at lower volumes,and can
be done off shore.
Even here in bucolic Pensyltucky, delivery of natty to market is limited by a lack of
piping infrastructure, limiting the gas boom. It gives the tree huggers time to throttle the
business. Figuring that the political climate and costs are going to get better with time
passing is foolish.
Also considered is price, still cheap, cheap, cheap.
Our local natty supplier just applied for, and received a price reduction, effective next
fall.
Since most of its subsea section is projected to be laid at depths of 3-3.5 kilometer,
in case it is built it would become the deepest subsea gas pipeline, most probably the
longest, too...
oh yeah bitchez. nothing could possibly go wrong with that plan. /s
none has even discovered the goods yet ... and we are told we have to go to war about
building some (((PIPELINES))) on something to be discovered in the future ... if ever
....
as Abba Waterloo song said the history books on the shelf just keeps repeating itself ...
that is why is not that difficult to see through the BS ...
World War I we are told was over some archiduke being killed by some extremist ...as a
result 1/3 of the Serb nation was killed ...
"... Senate Resolution on December 19, 2019 which calls for "a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and urging the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline ..."
"... Calling for a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and urging the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. ..."
Senator Ron Johnson (R- Wis) and Richard Durban (D-Ill) and 39 of their colleagues introduced a Senate Resolution on December
19, 2019 which calls for "a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and urging the cancellation of
the Nord Stream 2 pipeline" as shown
here :
Here is a list of co-sponsors of the resolution:
Sen. James Inhofe (R-Ok.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee; Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), ranking member of the
Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation; and Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Ben Cardin
(D-Md.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), Christopher Coons (D-Del.), James Risch (R-Idaho),
Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Ben Sasse (R-Neb.),
Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), John Boozman (R-Ark.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.),
Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Doug Jones (D-Ala.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.),
Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Roger Wicker
(R-Miss.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), John Thune (R-S.D.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Mitch
McConnell (R-Ky.), and Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.).
Here is the resolution (currently unnumbered) in its entirety:
Calling for a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and urging the cancellation of the
Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
... ... ...
Whereas the United States has important national interests in the Black Sea region, including the security
of three NATO littoral states, the promotion of European energy market diversification by ensuring unfettered European access
to energy exporters in the Caucuses and central Asia, and combatting use of the region by smugglers as a conduit for trafficking
in persons, narcotics, and arms;
Whereas the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a proposed underwater natural gas pipeline project that would provide
an additional 55,000,000,000 cubic meters of pipeline capacity from the Russian Federation to the Federal Republic of Germany
through the Baltic Sea;
Whereas the Russian Federation's state-owned oil and gas company, Gazprom, is the sole shareholder of the Nord
Stream 2 project;
Whereas, in 2017, there was spare capacity of approximately 55,000,000,000 cubic meters in the Ukrainian gas
transit system;
Whereas Gazprom cut off natural gas exports to Europe via Ukraine in 2006, and again in 2009, over supply and
pricing disputes with Ukraine's state-owned oil and gas company, Naftogaz;
Whereas transit of Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine declined precipitously after the completion of
Nord Stream 1 in 2011, falling from 80 percent to between 40 and 50 percent of Russia's total exports to Europe;
Whereas, in 2017, Russian gas accounted for 37 percent of Europe's natural gas imports, an increase of
5 percent over 2016;
Whereas, on December 12, 2018, the European Parliament overwhelmingly passed a resolution condemning both the
Russian Federation's aggression in the Kerch Strait and the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline; and
Whereas, on December 11, 2018, the United States House of Representatives passed a resolution calling upon
the European
Union to reject the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and urging the President to use all available means to promote energy policies in
Europe that reduce European reliance on Russian energy exports:
... ... ...
(9) applauds and concurs with the European 2 Parliament's December 12, 2018, resolution condemning Russian aggression in the
Kerch Strait and
the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, calling for the pipeline's cancellation due to its threat to European energy security, and calling
on the Russian Federation to
7 guarantee freedom of navigation in the Kerch Strait;
and
(10) urges the President to continue working with Congress and our allies to ensure the appropriate policies to deter the Russian
Federation from further aggression.
Fortunately, these two neocons can make all the proclamations they want but without President Trump's support it's all just
words; neocon virtue signalling. And of course President Trump won't support what they're doing because he campaigned on and governs
as an anti-war president.
Ron Johnson is a Bushie neocon who actively supported the neocon ¡Jebe! (Please Clap) Bush while Durbin is a Hillary Clinton
neocon who actively supported that drunken, corrupt, warmongering shrew.
Thank all that's holy that we have a genuine anti-war POTUS in office and not either of those two neocons, both of whom were
utterly in the pockets of defense contractors.
Thanks for your research on relevant naval law. The Ukrainian vessel is reported to have violated the ongoing protocol by failing
to take on a Russian pilot as it transited the strait and an important bridge could potentially have been attacked by those vessels.
This was a provocation by Ukraine that seems to have its desired effect on the U.S. Senate. For essential background on the Ukrainian
civil war, I recommend reading Stephen F. Cohen's article in the Nation in 2014, titled "Kiev's atrocities and the Silence of
the Hawks." https://www.thenation.com/article/kievs-atrocities-and-silence-hawks/
Don't ,forget John Bolton's late October visit to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia where he
pragmatically refined US priorities for each country including the indication for sanction
waving in respect of South Stream energy. Bolton's tour followed on from a visit to Moscow.
DJT had a 50 minute private meeting with Erdogan at the G20 followed by a further extended
phone call on the 14th December and the final call on the 21st immediately prior to the
Policy announcement. This marks considered policy and unfortunately for the Rojave Kurds
their interest were found wanting in the balance. There will be complementary side deals
involving Iran, Assad, Putin and Netanyahu. There then remains Idlib.
https://www.dailysabah.com/...
https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/...
https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/...
"... "The 10 Bcm/year into Europe is not a game-changer from a volume point of view, but it is a game-changer from a new source of product into mainland Europe perspective and it can be expanded." ..."
"... Meanwhile, however, Russia and Turkey are building another pipeline, Turkish Stream, that will supply gas to Turkey and Eastern Europe, as well as possibly Hungary. The two recently marked the completion of its subsea section. Turkish Stream will have two lines, each able to carry up to 15.75 billion cubic meters. One will supply the Turkish market and the other European countries. ..."
"... In this context, the Southern Gas Corridor seems to have more of a political rather than practical significance for the time being , giving Europe the confidence that it could at some future point import a lot more Caspian gas because the infrastructure is there. ..."
The Southern Gas Corridor on which the European Union is pinning most of its hopes for
natural gas supply diversification away from Russia is coming along nicely and will not just be
on schedule, but it will come with a price tag that is US$5-billion lower than the original
budget , BP's vice president in charge of the project
told S&P Global Platts this week.
"Often these kinds of mega-projects fall behind schedule. But the way the projects have
maintained the schedule has meant that your traditional overspend, or utilization of
contingency, has not occurred," Joseph Murphy said, adding that savings had been the top
priority for the supermajor.
The Southern Gas Corridor will carry natural gas from the Azeri Shah Deniz 2 field in the
Caspian Sea to Europe via a network of three pipelines : the Georgia South Caucasus Pipeline,
which was recently expanded and can carry 23 billion cubic meters of gas; the TANAP pipeline
via Turkey, with a peak capacity of 31 billion cubic meters annually; and the Trans-Adriatic
Pipeline, or TAP, which will link with TANAP at the Turkish-Greek border and carry 10 billion
cubic meters of gas annually to Italy.
TANAP was
commissioned in July this year and the first phase of TAP is expected to be completed in
two years, so Europe will hopefully have more non-Russian gas at the start of the new decade.
But not that much, at least initially: TANAP will operate at an initial capacity of 16 billion
cubic meters annually, of which 6 billion cubic meters will be supplied to Turkey and the
remainder will go to Europe. In the context of total natural gas demand of 564 billion cubic
meters in 2020, according to a forecast from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies released
earlier this year, this is not a lot.
Yet at some point the TANAP will reach its full capacity and hopefully by that time, TAP
will be completed. Surprisingly, it was the branch to Italy that proved the most challenging,
and BP's Murphy acknowledged that. While Turkey built TANAP on time to the surprise of the
project operator, TAP has been struggling because of legal issues and uncertainty after the new
Italian government entered office earlier this year.
At the time, the government of Giuseppe Conte said the pipeline was pointless but, said
Murphy, since then he has accepted the benefits the infrastructure would offer, such as transit
fees. And yet local opposition in southern Italy remains strong but BP still sees first
deliveries of gas through Italy in 2020.
The BP executive admitted that at first the Southern Gas Corridor wouldn't make a
splash.
"The 10 Bcm/year into Europe is not a game-changer from a volume point of view, but it is
a game-changer from a new source of product into mainland Europe perspective and it can be
expanded."
Meanwhile, however, Russia and Turkey are building another pipeline, Turkish Stream, that
will supply gas to Turkey and Eastern Europe, as well as possibly Hungary. The two recently
marked the completion of its subsea section. Turkish Stream will have two lines, each able to
carry up to 15.75 billion cubic
meters. One will supply the Turkish market and the other European countries.
In this context, the Southern Gas Corridor seems to have more of a political rather than
practical significance for the time being , giving Europe the confidence that it could at some
future point import a lot more Caspian gas because the infrastructure is there.
Comments while mostly naive, are indicative for the part of the US society that elected Trump
and that Trump betrayed.
But the fact that gas went not to Europe, but to Turkey is pretty indicative. And even larger volume with go to China. At some
point Europe might lose part or all Russia gas supply as Russian gas reserved are not infinite. That the perspective EU leaders
are afraid of.
US shale gas is OK as long as the USA is supplied from Canada, Russia and other places as well. Some quantity can be
exported. But the USA can't be a large and stable gas supplier to Europe as shale gas is capital intensive and sweet spots
are limited.
Notable quotes:
"... Some worthy observations, especially with all the US "Think Tanks." But I would include the number of non-Jewish elites who have banded together with the Jewish elite and who have greatly aided in eating out the very heart of America. ..."
"... History also shows that ANY smaller entity (Israel) that depends on a larger entity (America) for its survival becomes a failed entity in the long run. Just saying. ..."
"... The American Empire is all cost and no benefit to the great majority of Americans. The MIC and that's it. Politicians on the right wave the flag and politicians on the left describe a politically correct future. All on our dime. ..."
While the Trump Administration still thinks it can play enough games to derail the
Nordstream 2 pipeline via sanctions and threats, the impotence of its position geopolitically
was on display the other day as the final pipe of the first train of the Turkstream pipeline
entered the waters of the Black Sea.
The pipe was sanctioned by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan who shared a public stage and held bilateral talks afterwards. I think it is
important for everyone to watch the response to Putin's speech in its entirety. Because it
highlights just how far Russian/Turkish relations have come since the November 24th, 2015
incident where Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 over Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/TkFR25SArYM
When you contrast this event with the strained and uninspired interactions between Erdogan
and President Trump you realize that the world is moving forward despite the seeming power of
the United States to derail events.
And Turkey is the key player in the region, geographically, culturally and politically.
Erdogan and Putin know this. And they also know that Turkey being the transit corridor of
energy for Eastern Europe opens those countries up to economic and political power they haven't
enjoyed in a long time.
The first train of Turkstream will serve Turkey directly. Over the next couple of years the
second train will be built which will serve as a jumping off point for bringing gas to Eastern
and Southern Europe.
Turkstream will bring 15.75 bcm annually to Turkey and the second train that same amount to
Europe. The TAP – Trans Adriatic Pipeline -- will bring just 10 bcm annually and won't do
so before 2020, a project more than six years in the making.
Political Realities
The real story behind Turkstream, however, is, despite Putin's protestations to the
contrary, political. No project of this size is purely economic, even if it makes immense
economic sense. If that were the case then the STC wouldn't exist because it makes zero
economic sense but some, if not much, political sense.
No, this pipeline along with the other major energy projects between Russia and Turkey have
massive long-term political implications for the Middle East. Erdogan wants to re-take control
of the Islamic world from the Saudis.
This is why they have the Saudis on a residual-poison-type drip
feed of information relating to the death of Jamal Khashoggi to extract maximal value from
the situation as Erdogan plays the U.S. deep state against the Trump/Mohammed bin Salman (MbS)
alliance.
The U.S. deep state wants Trump weakened and MbS removed from power. Trump needs MbS to
advance his plans for securing Israel's future and prolong the dollar's long-term health.
Erdogan is using this rift to extract concessions left and right while continuing to do
whatever he wants to do vis a vis Syria, Iran and his growing partnership with Russia.
Erdogan is in a position now to drive a very hard bargain over U.S. involvement in Syria,
which neither faction in the U.S. government (Trump and the deep state) wants to give up
on.
By controlling the oil fields in the eastern part of Syria and blocking the roads leading
from Iraq the U.S. is playing a game it can't win because ultimately the Kurds will either have
to be betrayed by the U.S. to keep Erdogan happy or cut a deal with the Syrian government for
their future alienating the U.S.
This has been the ultimate end-game of the occupation of eastern Syria for months now and
time is on both Putin's and Erdogan's side. Because the U.S. can't pressure Turkey to stop
growing closer to Russia and Iran.
Eventually the U.S. troops in Syria will be nothing more than an albatross around Trump's
neck politically and he'll have to announce a pull out, which will be popular back home helping
his re-election campaign for 2020.
The big loser in this is Israel who is now having to circle the wagons politically since
Putin put the screws to Benjamin Netanyahu for his part in the deaths of 15 Russian airmen back
in September by closing the Syrian airspace and allowing mostly free movement of materiel to
Lebanon.
Netanyahu, as I talked about last week, is now in a very precarious position after Israel
was forced to sue for peace thanks to the unprecedentedly strong response by the Palestinians
in Gaza.
Elijah Magnier commented
recently that it this was the net result of Trump's unconditional support of Israel which
united the Arab resistance rather than dividing and conquering it.
But the US establishment decided to distance itself from the Palestinian cause and
embraced unconditionally the Israeli apartheid policy towards Palestine: the US supports
Israel blindly. It has recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, suspended financial aid
to UN institutions supporting Palestinian refugees (schools, medical care, homes), and
rejected the right of return of Palestinians. All this has pushed various Palestinian groups,
including the Palestinian Authority, to acknowledge that any negotiation with Israel is
useless and that also the US can no longer be considered a reliable partner. Moreover, the
failed regime-change in Syria and the humiliating conditions place on Arab financial support
were in a way the last straws that convinced Hamas to change its position, giving up on the
Oslo agreement and joining the Axis of the Resistance.
Project Netanyahu,
as Alistair Crooke termed it , was predicated on keeping the support of the Palestinians
split with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority at odds and then grinding out the resistance in
Gaza over time.
Trump's plans also involved the formation of the so-called "Arab NATO" the summit for which
has been put off until next year thanks to Erdogan's deft handling of the Saudi hit on
Khashoggi. There are still a number of issues outstanding -- the financial blockade of Qatar,
the war in Yemen, etc. -- that need to be resolved as well before any of this is even remotely
possible.
At this point that plan has failed and the clash with Israel last week proved it is
unworkable without tacit approval of Turkey who is gunning for the Saudis as the leaders of the
Sunni world.
Show me the Money
But, more importantly, over time, a Turkey that can ween itself off the U.S. dollar over the
next decade is a Turkey that can survive politically the upheaval to the post-WWII
institutional order coming over the next few years.
Remember, all of this is happening against the backdrop of a U.S. and European political
order that is failing to maintain the confidence of the people it governs.
The road to dollar independence will be long and hard but it will be possible. Russia is the
model for this having successfully removed the dollar from a great deal of its trade and is now
reaping the benefits of that stability.
And projects like Turkstream and the soon to be completed Power of Siberia Pipeline to China
will see the gas from both trade without the dollar as the intermediary.
If you don't think this de-dollarization of the Russian economy is happening or significant,
take one look at the Russian ruble versus the price of Brent crude in recent weeks. We've had
another historic collapse in oil prices and yet the ruble versus the dollar hasn't really moved
at all.
The upward move from earlier this year in the ruble (not shown) came from disruptions in the
Aluminum market and the threat of further sanctions. But, as the U.S. puts the screws even
tighter to Russia's finances by forcing the price of oil down, the effect on the ruble has been
minimal.
With today's move Brent is off nearly $30 from its October high ( a massive 35% drop in
prices) just seven weeks ago and the Ruble hasn't budged. The Bank of Russia hasn't been in
there propping up its price. Normally this would send the ruble into a tailspin but it
hasn't.
The other so-called 'commodity currencies' like the Canadian and Australian dollars have
been hit hard but not the ruble.
Set the Way Back Machine to 2014 when oil prices cratered and you'll see a ruble in free
fall which culminated in a massive blow-off top that required a fundamental shift in both
fiscal and monetary policy for Russia.
This had to do with the massive dollar-denominated debt of its, you guessed it, oil and gas
sector. Today that is not a point of leverage.
Today lower oil prices will be a forward headwind for Russian oil companies but a boon to
the Russian economy that won't experience massive inflation thanks to the ruble being sold to
cover U.S. dollar liabilities.
Those days are over.
And so too will those days come for Turkey which is now in the process of doing what Russia
did in 2015, divest itself of future dollar obligations while diversifying the currencies it
trades in.
Stability, transparency and solvency are the things that increase the demand for a currency
as not only a medium of exchange but also as a reserve asset. Russia announced the latest
figures of bilateral trade with China bypassing the dollar and RT had a very interesting
quote from Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev.
No one currency should dominate the market, because this makes all of us dependent on the
economic situation in the country that issues this reserve currency, even when we are talking
about a strong economy such as the United States," Medvedev said.
He added that US sanctions have pushed Moscow and Beijing to think about the use of their
domestic currencies in settlements, something that "we should have done ten years ago."
" Trading for rubles is our absolute priority, which, by the way, should eventually turn
the ruble from a convertible currency into a reserve currency, " the Russian prime minister
said.
That is the first statement by a major Russian figure about seeing the ruble rise to reserve
status, but it's something that many, like myself, have speculated about for years now.
Tying together major economies like Turkey, Iran, China and eventually the EU via energy
projects which settle the trade in local currencies is the big threat to the current political
and economic program of the U.S. It is something the EU will only embrace reluctantly.
It is something the U.S. will oppose vehemently.
And it is something that no one will stop if it makes sense for the people on each side of
the transaction. This is why Turkstream and Nordstream 2 are such important projects they
change the entire dynamic of the flow of global capital.
Oil and commodity markets were used as a finishing move on the Soviet system. The book,
"The Oil Card: Global Economic Warfare in the 21st Century" by James R. Norman details the
use of oil futures as a geopolitical tool. Pipelines change the calculus quite a bit.
Soros funded 'migration' to Europe has also failed and created a massive cultural and
economic burden on Europe.
The Soros/Rothschild plan to destroy Middle Eastern countries and displace the people was
- of course - motivated by the Rothschilds 'bread and butter ' - OIL ( the worlds largest
traded commodity ) !!
...Where ever they go, they [neoliberals] get organised, identify the institutions/establishments/courts to infiltrate and then use that
influence to -
* Hijack the economy.
* Corrupt the society.
As the current trend shows, the nexus of the international economic activity is shifting
east. Turkey is not making a mistake aligning itself with the goals of Russia, Iran and
China. Although there is still a huge debt of the previous deeds that has to be paid.
"Half of the US billionaires are Jews while only being less then 3% of the population. And
it doesn't stop there. They work collectively to hijack the institutions critical for the
operations of the democracy."
Some worthy observations, especially with all the US "Think Tanks." But I would include
the number of non-Jewish elites who have banded together with the Jewish elite and who have
greatly aided in eating out the very heart of America.
I read on here previously some dimwit comment about "America prints a bill for 2 cents
while other countries have to earn a dollars worth of equity to buy it and we can do this
forever" kind of thing. Not if other countries don't supply the demand you can't :)
History also shows that ANY smaller entity (Israel) that depends on a larger entity
(America) for its survival becomes a failed entity in the long run. Just saying.
I think you could quite reasonably replace the term 'depends on a larger entity', with a
term that better describes a (smaller) ' parasite ' on a (larger) host...
From your lips to God's ear. The American Empire is all cost and no benefit to the great majority of Americans. The MIC
and that's it. Politicians on the right wave the flag and politicians on the left describe a
politically correct future. All on our dime.
Israhell is losing its status via Putins peaceful diplomacy and trade with ME countries
who are not onboard with the Yinon plan. This is why RUSSIAGATE, led by dual Israhelli democrats in Congress. There is always a
foreign policy issue attached to their demonizing of other countries. This is also why the UK just sent UK soldiers to Ukraine declaring war on Russia for
"invading Ukraine" and not telling parliament or the UK people.
UK/US blind support for Israhell will get us all killed.
We do know that UK soldiers have been sent to the Ukraine. We also know that, according to elements in the Government and the Civil Service, Russia
invaded and annexed the Ukraine, which is just another reason to not trust the
Government--any Government.
WRONG!!!!! NordStream Eins und Zwei are the Prizes, because DEU, Scandinavia, CHE, and FRA will
Benefit. TRK Wins 2nd Prize with TRKStream and SouthStream Pipelines. Losers are BGR and EU_PARAGOV, since BGR went from Prime Partner to Trickledown
Transiteer.
Ultimately, along with Nordstream and Turkstream, there will also be a Polarstream
(leading to UK and Iceland) and Southstream (which was already begun but temporarily
suspended after Obama threatened Bulgaria via Angela Merkel).
And, oh...I am sure there will also be a Ukrostream (also known as Mainstream)
unfortunately the Ukronazi government of Ukrainistan doesn't know this just yet. They will
find out in due course, I am sure.
First PolarStream is highly unlikely both because laying it would be extremely difficult
and expensive and because Iceland has no need for gas as it is sitting on thermal reserves
and the UK won't deal with Russia.
You are correct on SouthStream.
As to UkroStream (I assume you mean Ukraine) it is already in existence and has been for
50 plus years. Given the bad history between the parties the Russians will want to stop that
route asap, hence the timing of NordStream 2 and TurkStream. So in the future UkroSream is
going to end, not start.
long-term political implications for the Middle East. Erdogan wants to re-take control of
the Islamic world from the Saudis.
SA still has control of the Hajj -- religious tourism - command by the Magic Book that
even Turkish mohammadist must complete. +/- 18% of SA GDP-- and SA isn't sharing any of that
loot.
Ticip is required to go and throw rocks at the black orb -- and do the Muslim Hokey Pokey
along with all the rest.. oh, and pay the SA kings for the privilege !
The new 3D Grand Chessboard is being played very quietly out of Moscow.
The article is a wee bit deceptive. Whilst this was indeed the last bit of under sea pipe
they were celebrating, it should be pointed out the stunning speed that they achieved, about
a mile a day some to a depth of over 1000 feet, quite an achievement on land, let alone at
sea. This is quite interesting, especially the map
Also, as its landfall in Turkey is west of the Bosphorus, that is west of Istanbul, maybe
that 'for Turkish use' is a cover for its primary purpose, supplying the Balkans as well as
Turkey from January 2020.
Note the significance of the start to pump date, December 2019, the same as NordStream 2.
What else happens then? Oh yes, the gas transit contract with Ukraine ends. The combination
of these two new pipelines to a very great extent replace that agreement. Even though
politically everyone is saying Ukraine ($4B p.a. transit fees) should be protected.
Take another look at the map, note that it takes a dogleg south to Turkey. If at that
point it had gone straight ahead it would have gone to Bulgaria as SouthStream. But the US
and its EU vassal stopped that. Maybe the second pipeline the Russians are now discussing
will resurrect that route.
These American fucktards actually think they can replace Russian gas supply to the EU. With
what you utter void heads? America had a net export capacity of 5 bcm in 2017 because it
imported about 87 bcm from Canada. When you fuckwad, douchebags get 150 bcm export capacity,
then start yapping. Until then, STFU.
Of course, it is clear to anyone with a functional brain that the US is totally dishonest
on claiming to want to supply the EU. In fact, it wants to saddle the EU with onerous LNG
contracts to third parties (e.g. Qatar) who can currently and for the near term supply the
volumes of LNG needed. At the same time the US damages the Asian tigers by increasing LNG
prices.
It is time for all the US bootlicks (Japan, the EU) to tell Uncle Scumbag to shove himself
in his own ass. The US is not even pretending to treat these countries with respect.
The US has repeatedly taken position against Nord Stream 2, a Russia-sponsored pipeline
planned to bring gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea. But this time Washington warned against
another such pipeline, bringing Russian gas under the Black Sea.
US Energy Secretary Rick Perry called on Hungary and its neighbors to reject Russian gas
pipelines which Washington says are being used to cement Moscow's grip on central and eastern
Europe.
Energy diversification would be crucial for the region, as Russia has used energy as a
weapon in the past, he said, as quoted by Reuters.
"Russia is using a pipeline project Nord stream 2 and a multi-line Turkish stream to try to
solidify its control over the security and the stability of Central and eastern Europe," Perry
added during a visit to Budapest.
Last July, Hungary signed a deal with Russia's Gazprom to link the country with the Turkish
Stream pipeline by end-2019.
Rick Perry is a salesman. He wants us Europeans to buy USA gas. Which is why he is against
North Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. Not because Russia may use gas to blackmail Europe --
unlike the USA, which blackmails Europe to sanction Iran and Russia –. No, he just
wants us to buy America.
Despite the fact that gas produced in the USA is far more expensive
than Russia's. Well, what can you expect from a minister in the government of a tycoon? What
else can you expect from today's USA?
One way or another, Gazprom is going to have to pay Ukraine $2.6 Billion, so they might as
well just do it and have it over with. Of course the Ukies will prance and jump up and down
in the streets and yell 'Slava Ukrainy' – and hasten off to prepare new lawsuits in
search of more money from the Russian state. But a Swiss court has ordered all Nord Stream
partners to not make any payments to Gazprom, instead to pay all monies owed to Gazprom to
Swedish bailiffs, who will redistribute it to Ukraine until they recover all their money.
+ 45
DR
Members
+ 45
28 posts
Posted
Wednesday
at 03:48 AM
On 10/18/2018 at 11:38 PM,
Jan van Eck
said:
The problem that Qatar faces is one of population and geography. Qatar is dominantly Sunni, but
not the really severe branch that envelops KSA. And it sits next door to Bahrain, which is
apparently about 70% Shia. Qatar also juts way out into the Gulf, and is thus a convenient
sea-land bridge from Iran. Were Iran to go for a land invasion of KSA, then crossing into Qatar
with landing craft, or seizing a Qatari airport, is logical. To prevent this, the USA has built
a major air base in Qatar, specifically to cut off this route. That big US base is a natural
(and juicy) target for Iran should a shooting war break out, and the USA join in against Iran
(and that would be logical).
Meanwhile Qatar has this bizarre and unfathomable dysfunctional relationship with MbS, and a
very difficult relationship with Bahrain, which has cut off diplomatic relations and sent the
Qatari diplomats packing, in 2017. Now Iran is under sanctions, which is stressing their cash
receipts. Iran pushes back, against their ideological and religious rivals and enemies the
Sunnis, by threatening to either invade or to sink tankers with gas coming out of Qatar. The
problem for gas LNG tankers is that the stuff is kept docile by bringing the temp down to minus
176 degrees. If you whack an LNG tanker with a torpedo and breach the container spheres, easy
enough to do, then that ship is likely to blow up; one little spark and all that gas will be a
salient lesson for all the others.
The deterrent effect of this will be that nobody will dare to tempt fate by sending in an LNG
tanker. So Iran can shut down LNG traffic without firing a shot, all they have to do is go
crazy and start threatening. Iran has these subs that can go sit on the bottom of the Gulf and
pop up to launch a torpedo, and everyone knows it. That is one heck of a deterrent.
Meanwhile you have Europe now heavily dependent on gas. Either the Europeans continue to
genuflect to the Russians, which some Europeans at least find unpalatable, or they have to find
an alternative source. That is likely going to be the USA. I predict that the aggressions of
the Russians, and the problems of Qatar in any real ability to fill long-term contracts, and the
threat of
force-majeure
hovering in the background, brings Europe to buy US LNG.
Qatar delivered 80 million tons last year, as number 1 LNG exporter by a long shot. Australia
trailed behind at 56 million, followed by Malaysia 26M, Nigeria 21M, Indonesia 16M, USA 13M, Algeria
12M.
Qatar was responsible for 17M tons exported to EU, followed by Algeria at 10.4M. US Liquefaction
capacity is estimated to match the whole Middle East by 2025 with Calcasieu, LA at 4 bcf/day,
Brownsville, TX at 3.6 bcf/day; Plaquemines at 3.4 bcf/day; and Nikiski Alaska at 2.6 Bcf/day for the
Asian market.
BP has its new 'Partnership Fleet', Shell is chartering heavily and owns a large fleet as well.
Gaslog has over 25 modern large capacity vessels on the water, and the order book for 2019-2020
deliveries is extensive, and they will be available for US to EU transport (Tellurian and Cheniere
have already chartered Gaslog ships for their exclusive use)
The catch here is that Russia is delivering 10.8 million tons per year via Yamal, and their
upcoming Arctic 2LNG that will be on the ice in the Arctic circle adding even more to that production.
They have a fleet delivering year round of Teekay and Dynagas ice breaker LNG carriers, and their
primary clients have been Belgium, France and Spain during their debut ice breaking season. They are
centrally located to maximize deliveries to Asia and Europe.
I doubt that Russia will cut off Europe after spending all that money to secure liquefaction and
transport capabilities in the Arctic, but who knows. They are geared up to deliver to Asia, but could
only do so in the Summer months, or during the Winter months with the assistance of a Nuclear
Icebreaker to lead the ships.
Honestly, I hope that Germany completes the Hamburg LNG Terminal quickly and begins buying US LNG
so that we can diversify from our usual Mexico, S Korea, Japan, Spain, Portugal, Chile, Egypt, Jordan
clientele. Germany consumed over 90 million CBM of natural gas last year (controversial because they
stopped 'officially' disclosing the numbers after 2016, these are OECD estimates from the IEA), and
are getting close to Japan's 120 million CBM.
Qatar/Iran tensions could be the perfect storm for a US to EU energy boom.
Despite the almost unprecedented divisive nature of Donald J. Trump's presidency, he is
chalking up some impressive foreign policy victories, including finally bringing Beijing to
task over its decades long unfair trade practices, stealing of intellectual property rights,
and rampant mercantilism that has given its state-run companies unfair trade advantages and as
a result seen Western funds transform China to an emerging world power alongside the U.S.
Now, it looks as if Trump's recent tirade against America's European allies over its
geopolitically troubling reliance on Russian gas supply may also be bearing fruit. On Tuesday,
The Wall Street Journal reported that earlier this month German Chancellor Angela Merkel
offered government support to efforts to open up Germany to U.S. gas, in what the report called
"a key concession to President Trump as he tries to loosen Russia's grip on Europe's largest
energy market."
German concession
Over breakfast earlier this month, Merkel told a small group of German lawmakers that the
government had made a decision to co-finance the construction of a $576 million liquefied
natural gas (LNG) terminal in northern Germany, people familiar with the development said.
The project had been postponed for at least a decade due to lack of government support,
according to reports, but is now being thrust to the center of European-U.S. geopolitics.
Though media outlets will mostly spin the development, this is nonetheless a geopolitical and
diplomatic win for Trump who lambasted Germany in June over its Nordstream 2 pipeline deal with
Russia.
In a televised meeting with reporters and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg before a
NATO summit in Brussels,
Trump said at the time it was "very inappropriate" that the U.S. was paying for European
defense against Russia while Germany, the biggest European economy, was supporting gas deals
with Moscow.
Both the tone and openness of Trumps' remarks brought scathing rebukes both at home and
among EU allies, including most media outlets. However, at the end of the day, it appears that
the president made a fair assessment of the situation. Russia, for its part, vehemently denies
any nefarious motives over its gas supply contacts with its European customers, though Moscow's
actions in the past dictate otherwise.
Moscow also claims that the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline is a purely commercial venture. The
$11 billion gas pipeline will stretch some 759 miles (1,222 km), running on the bed of the
Baltic Sea from Russian gas fields to Germany, bypassing existing land routes over Ukraine,
Poland and Belarus. It would double the existing Nord Stream pipeline's current annual capacity
of 55 bcm and is expected to become operational by the end of next year.
Russia, who stands the most to lose not only in terms of regional hegemony, but economically
as well, if Germany pushes through with plans to now build as many as three LNG terminals,
always points out that Russian pipeline gas is cheaper and will remain cheaper for decades
compared to U.S. LNG imports.
While that assessment is correct, what Moscow is missing, or at least not admitting, is a
necessary German acquiescence to Washington. Not only does the EU's largest economy need to
stay out of Trump's anti-trade cross hairs, it still needs American leadership in both NATO and
in Europe as well.
Russian advantages
Without U.S. leadership in Europe, a vacuum would open that Moscow would try to fill, most
likely by more gas supply agreements. However, Russia's gas monopoly in both Germany and in
Europe will largely remain intact for several reasons.
First, Russian energy giant Gazprom, which has control over Russia's network of pipelines to
Europe, supplies close to 40 percent of Europe's gas needs.
Second, Russia's gas exports to Europe rose 8.1 percent last year to a record level of 193.9
bcm, even amid concerns over Russia's cyber espionage allegations, and its activities in Syria,
the Ukraine and other places.
Moreover, Russian gas is indeed as cheap as the country claims and will remain that way for
decades. Using a Henry Hub gas price of $2.85/MMBtu as a base, Gazprom
recently estimated that adding processing and transportation costs, the price of
U.S.-sourced LNG in Europe would reach $6/MMBtu or higher – a steep markup.
Henry Hub gas prices are currently trading at $3.151/MMBtu. Over the last 52-week period
U.S. gas has traded between $2.64/MMBtu and $3.82/MMBtu. Russian gas sells for around $5/MMBtu
in European markets and could even trade at lower prices in the future as Gazprom removes the
commodity's oil price indexation.
Naftogaz has now begun to help itself to money from Russia's gas-transit payments, arguing
that it is owed money from the Stockholm Arbitration ruling which Gazprom has refused to pay.
Apparently Russia is still paying the old rate, from before the ruling (because to do
otherwise would be to recognize the debt and accept responsibility for it), which results in
an overpayment since it is higher than Naftogaz would charge, if I understand correctly. So
Naftogaz has decided to confiscate it as owing.
This, obviously, sets the stage for another shutdown of European gas supplies, just as
winter is coming on. Perhaps Ukraine has realized that nothing it can do or say is going to
stop Nord Stream II from going ahead, and so it might as well recover what it can, and who
cares if it results in a shutdown of Europe's gas, regardless where the blame ends up? Once
again Ukraine's maneuvering puts Russia in a difficult spot – it can recognize the
Stockholm award and pay Ukraine $2.6 Billion or whatever it was. Or it can accept that
Ukraine will keep part of its transit payments against the debt until it can shut down gas
transit across Ukraine altogether. Or it can shut off the gas now.
If it were up to me, I would take the middle option. Let Ukraine congratulate itself on
one-upping me with its native cleverness (assuming here that I am Russia), and let them keep
$9 or $10 million of the transit fees each month; that would probably be a lot cheaper than
acknowledging the Stockholm award and paying Ukraine billions, in view of the fact that
Ukraine never paid back the money it was lent by Russia; Stockholm neatly solved that for
them, by awarding them huge damages, part of which was understood to be the amount Ukraine
owed. Okay, that goes toward Ukraine's debt to Russia, and now you owe Ukraine $2.6 Billion
more.
I would just focus on getting Nord Stream II completed. Then I would not only stop gas
transit through Ukraine, I would tell them to kiss my ass if they wanted to buy gas for
themselves. You were so pleased with yourselves for not buying any gas from Russia last year
– obviously you can get along fine without it. But I sure hope Europe is going to keep
giving you money to buy European gas forever.
Ukraine Naftogaz Commercial Director Yuriy Vitrenko, in an interview with "The Fifth
Channel" has spoken of a plan that has been prepared in order to protect Naftogaz interests
in the event of the launch of "Nord Stream-2".
According to him, if the gas pipeline project is indeed implemented, then Kiev will demand
that a penalty against against Russia be awarded the Ukraine for the loss it will suffer
because of the redundancy of its gas transport system.
The loss incured has been estimated by the Ukraine to be $12 billion. A lawsuit has
already been filed by Naftogaz for international arbitration.
So for several years I have been shopping at a Pyatyorochka supermarket around the corner
from our house. Now there's a new Billa supermarket around the other corner. It has a wider
range of goods and is very competitive as regards its Pyatorocka prices, so I now do most of
my shopping at Billa.
Does this mean Pyatyorachka can sue me for damages because of the loss of income it is
suffering because of my choice to use another retail outlet?
I shall check with the Swedish court of arbitration.
Perhaps they would get further by suing the US Department of State. I'm pretty sure that if
it were not for them, Ukraine's gas transit system would still be in use. Ukraine could at
least make a sensible case, which they cannot do against Russia. Mind you, a UK judge would
probably rule in their favour, because simply wanting to get at Russia seems to be good
enough these days – making a sensible case is not required.
In another stellar example of simply making up an optimistic headline that makes readers feel
good – those readers who only read headlines, for example – a French analyst is
apparently willing to go out on a limb and say that Nord Stream II 'won't be built as
planned'. That's already a little hedgy, but if you read the article itself, he doesn't say
anything remotely like that. In fact, he says Russian gas is the cheapest option, and most
American LNG cargoes thus far to Europe are promptly sold on to someplace else where the
Europeans can get more for it.
The major issue is that US LNG may come if we have higher prices. But why would we need
them? They are quite high already. If China is prepared to overbid us, we don't need the
American gas. We can ask for more Russian gas
Russia's Energy Minister sees the potential to double Russian gas exports by 2035. Russia's
gas exports are growing by 6-7%/yr while global gas demand growth is at 2.6%/yr until 2035.
Probably not the greatest news for the environment, as most analysts agree we need to
start immediately moving away from a petroleum-based energy policy. But getting rid of all
use of coal would be a good start for the present; gas is relatively clean, although I don't
know if that makes any real difference to greenhouse-gas emissions.
Ryan Chilcote : Let's return to energy, or at least more directly to energy,
President Putin, and talk about Nord Stream 2. That's the pipeline that Gazprom wants to build
between Russia and Germany. Again, the President of the United States has said his opinion
about this. He says that Germany is effectively a hostage already of Russia, because it depends
on Russia for so much of its energy and gas supplies, and that it's vulnerable to "extortion
and intimidation" from Russia. What do you make of that?
Vladimir Putin : My response is very simple. Donald and I talked about this very
briefly in Helsinki. In any sale, including the sale of our gas to Europe, we are traditionally
the supplier, of pipeline gas I mean. We have been doing this since the 1960s. We are known for
doing it in a highly responsible and professional manner, and at competitive prices for the
European market. In general, if you look at the characteristics of the entire gas market, the
price depends on the quantity and on sales volumes. The distance between Russia and Europe is
such that pipeline gas is optimal. And the price will always be competitive, always. This is
something all experts understand.
We have a lot of people here in this room, in the first row, who could easily be seated next
to me, and I would gladly listen to them, because each one is an expert, so each of them can
tell you that. And so Nord Stream 2 is a purely commercial project, I want to emphasise this,
warranted by rising energy consumption, including in Europe, and falling domestic production in
European countries. They have to get it from somewhere.
Russian gas accounts for around 34 percent of the European market. Is this a lot or a
little? It is not insubstantial, but not a monopoly either. Europe certainly can and does
actually buy gas from other suppliers, but American liquefied gas is about 30 percent more
expensive than our pipeline gas on the European market. If you were buying products of the same
quality and you were offered the same product for 30 percent more , what would you choose? So,
what are we talking about?
If Europe starts buying American gas for 30 percent more than ours, the entire economy of
Germany, in this case, would quickly become dramatically less competitive. Everyone understands
this; it is an obvious fact.
But business is business, and we are ready to work with all partners. As you know, our
German partners have already begun offshore construction. We are ready to begin as well. We
have no problems with obtaining any permits. Finland agreed, and so did Sweden, Germany, and
the Russian Federation. This is quite enough for us. The project will be implemented.
< >
Ryan Chilcote : President Putin, did you want to jump in here?
Vladimir Putin:(following up on the remarks by CEO of Royal Dutch Shell Ben van
Beurden) We understand the realities and treat all our partners with respect. We have very
good, amiable long-term relations with all our partners, including the company represented by
my neighbour on the left. This company is working in the Russian market and working with great
success, but we understand everything very well and understand the realities. We are carrying
out the project ourselves. We do not and will not have any problems here. That is to say, they
may arise, of course, but we will resolve them.
Some things are beyond the realm of political intrigue. Take supplies to the Federal
Republic of Germany. Not everyone knows that the decision was made there to shut down the
nuclear power industry. But that is 34 percent of its total energy balance. We are proud of the
development of the nuclear power industry in the Russian Federation, although the figure for us
is just 16 percent. We are still thinking about how to raise it to 25 percent and are making
plans. Theirs is 34 percent and everything will be closed down. What will this vacuum be filled
with? What?
Look at LNG [liquefied natural gas ] which is sold by our various competitors and partners.
Yes, LNG can and should be in the common basket of Europe and Germany. Do you know how many
ports built in Europe are used for LNG transfer? Just 25 percent. Why? Because it is
unprofitable.
There are companies and regions for which it is profitable to supply LNG and this is being
done. The LNG market is growing very fast. But as for Europe, it is not very profitable, or
unprofitable altogether.
Therefore, in one way or another we have already seen Nord Stream 1 through and its
performance is excellent. Incidentally, our gas supplies to Europe are continuously growing.
Last year, I believe, they amounted to 194 billion cubic metres and this year they will add up
to 200 billion cubic metres or maybe even more.
We have loaded practically all our infrastructure facilities: Blue Stream to Turkey, Nord
Stream 1 is fully loaded. Yamal-Europe is fully loaded – it is almost approaching 100
percent, while the demand is going up. Life itself dictates that we carry out such
projects.
Ryan Chilcote : President Trump's position on American LNG exports is perhaps a
little bit more nuanced. His point is that instead of buying Russian gas, even perhaps if it's
a bit more expensive, the Germans and other European allies of the United States, because the
United States is paying for their defence, should be buying American gas even if there is, I
guess the argument suggests, a little bit of a higher price for that
Vladimir Putin : You know, this argument doesn't really work, in my opinion. I
understand Donald. He is fighting for the interests of his country and his business. He is
doing the right thing and I would do the same in his place.
As for LNG, as I have already said, it is not just a little more expensive in the European
market but 30 percent more. This is not a little bit more, it is a lot more, beyond all reason,
and is basically unworkable.
But there are markets where LNG will be adopted, where it is efficient, for instance in the
Asia-Pacific region. By the way, where did the first shipment of LNG from our new company
Yamal-LNG go? Where did the first tanker go? To the United States, because it was profitable.
The United States fought this project but ended up buying the first tanker. It was profitable
to buy it in this market, at this place and time, and it was purchased.
LNG is still being shipped to the American continent. It's profitable.
It makes no sense to fight against what life brings. We simply need to look for common
approaches in order to create favourable market conditions, including, for example, conditions
conducive to the production and consumption of LNG in the United States itself and securing the
best prices for producers and consumers. This could be achieved by coordinating policy, rather
than just imposing decisions on partners.
As for the argument, "We defend you, so buy this from us even if it makes you worse off", I
don't think it is very convincing either. Where does it lead? It has led to the Europeans
starting to talk about the need to have a more independent defence capability, as well as the
need to create a defence alliance of their own that allegedly will not undermine NATO while
allowing the Europeans to pursue a real defence policy. This is what, in my view, such steps
are leading to.
This is why I am sure that a great many things will be revised. Life will see to that.
"... So, Donald Trump finally folding on stopping Nordstream 2 is yet another example of the limits of what power the U.S. has and of its threats. When he denounced the project he said, ..."
"... "I never thought it was appropriate. I think it's ridiculous. And I think it's certainly a very bad thing for the people of Germany. And I've said it very loud and clear." ..."
"... But notice that he never said why. Because there is no downside for Germany. That's the point. Russian piped gas is simply cheaper and more reliable than LNG produced more than 3000 miles away. The downside is for the U.S. ..."
"... It begins the process of Germany and Russia re-establishing stronger economic ties cut in half by the 2014 sanctions over Crimea. It keeps Merkel in power a little while longer having stood up to the bully Trump and showing some German independence. ..."
"... Most importantly, this gas will be paid for in euros, not dollars. And this further undermines the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions as Gazprom will have a steady supply of euros to pay back its investors and diversify Russia's currency reserves. ..."
"... We saw this last winter when vicious cold snaps forced a hostile Britain to buy a few tankers of Yamal LNG from Novatek to keep its citizens from freezing. With the planet cooling rapidly, expect this source of spot demand to Europe to increase. ..."
"... But, for Germany, and the EU as a whole, more cheap energy is the path to remaining somewhat relevant in the global economy. With Germany ending the use of nuclear power it needs the type of energy Nordstream 2 supplies. In fact, Germany will eventually need Nordstream 3. ..."
Since its first announcement I have been convinced the Nordstream 2 pipeline would be built.
I have followed every twist of this story from my days writing for Newsmax.
And the reason for my confidence can be summed up in one word. Money.
Nordstream 2 simply makes too much economic sense for any amount of political whining from
the U.S. and Poland to stop it. Poland has no power within the European Union.
Germany does. And while I'm no fan of Angela Merkel getting another political weapon to hold
over the heads of the Poles, their attempts to derail the project were always going to end in
tears for them.
And so now Poland and the U.S. cried a lot of crocodile tears recently when President Trump
finally acceded to reality and ended the threat of sanctioning five of the biggest oil majors
in the world over doing business with Gazprom over Nordstream 2.
Nordstream 2's investors are Uniper, OMV, Wintershall, Royal Dutch Shell and Engie. After
all the permits were issued and construction begun the only thing that could stop Nordstream
from happening was these five companies folding to U.S. pressure and backing out of the project
by calling in their loans to Gazprom.
And when they were unwilling to do that, Trump had to fold because you can't cut these
companies out of the western banking system and starve them of dollars and euros without an
extreme dislocation in oil prices and global trade.
Bluff called. Nordstream 2? Holding Aces.
Trump? Holding two-seven offsuit.
Lack of Polish
The big loser here is Poland unless they come down off their Russophobic high horse.
Why is Nordstream 2 so important to Poland? Because it forces Poland into choosing between
two things the current ruling Law and Justice Party doesn't like.
Renegotiating a gas transit deal with Gazprom through Ukrainian pipelines without as much
leverage. Because the current agreement expires at the end of 2019.
If they reject this first option then they are at the mercy of buying gas from Nordstream
2 putting them politically in the hands of Germany.
Merkel is angry with Poland for trying to assert its sovereignty having begun Article 7
proceedings over their law putting Supreme Court justices under review from the legislature,
which the EU has termed a violation of its pledge to protect 'human rights.'
And so, expect Poland to now open up talks with Gazprom to negotiate a new deal or be stupid
and buy LNG from the U.S. at two to three times the price they can get it from
Gazprom.
Keeping Them Distant
From the U.S. side of the equation there are few things in this life that Donald Trump and
Barack Obama agree upon, and stopping Nordstream 2 was one of them. This, of course, tells you
that this opposition is coming from somewhere a lot higher than the Presidency.
U.S. and British foreign policy has been obsessed for more than a hundred years with
stopping the natural alliance between Germany's industrial base and Russia's vast tracts of
natural resources as well as Russia's own science and engineering prowess.
These two countries cannot, in any version of a unipolar world dominated by The Davos
Crowd, be allowed to form an economic no less political alliance because the level of
coordination and economic prosperity works directly against their goals of lowering everyone's
expectations for what humans can accomplish.
That is their greatest source of power. The complacency of our accepting low
expectations.
So, Donald Trump finally folding on stopping Nordstream 2 is yet another example of the
limits of what power the U.S. has and of its threats.
When he denounced the project he said,
"I never thought it was appropriate. I think it's ridiculous. And I think it's certainly a
very bad thing for the people of Germany. And I've said it very loud and clear."
But notice that he never said why. Because there is no downside for Germany. That's the point. Russian piped gas is simply
cheaper and more reliable than LNG produced more than 3000 miles away. The downside is for the U.S.
It begins the process of Germany and Russia re-establishing stronger economic ties cut in
half by the 2014 sanctions over Crimea. It keeps Merkel in power a little while longer having
stood up to the bully Trump and showing some German independence.
This is something she sorely needs right now coming into regional elections in October.
Most importantly, this gas will be paid for in euros, not dollars. And this further
undermines the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions as Gazprom will have a steady supply of euros to
pay back its investors and diversify Russia's currency reserves.
The Flow of Money
There is no way for U.S. LNG supplies to be competitive in Europe without massive artificial
barriers-to-entry for Russian gas. And even if Nordstream 2 was somehow stopped by the U.S.,
Russia's massive Yamal LNG facility on the Baltic Sea would still out compete U.S LNG from
Cheniere's terminal in Louisiana.
Location. Location. Location.
We saw this last winter when vicious cold snaps forced a hostile Britain to buy a few
tankers of Yamal LNG from Novatek to keep its citizens from freezing. With the planet cooling
rapidly, expect this source of spot demand to Europe to increase.
And this is why Russia also benefits from Poland building an LNG terminal. Because don't for
a second think Poles will suffer extreme cold because Andrej Duda hates Russians.
That's just funny, right thar!
But, for Germany, and the EU as a whole, more cheap energy is the path to remaining somewhat
relevant in the global economy. With Germany ending the use of nuclear power it needs the type
of energy Nordstream 2 supplies. In fact, Germany will eventually need Nordstream 3.
Each intervention by the U.S. or one of its satraps (and Poland's leadership certainly fills
that bill) to block any further business between Russia and Europe, but especially Germany,
keeps the world on edge and inches us closer to a military confrontation while open trade and
travel moves us farther from that outcome.
And anyone who argues otherwise is simply talking their book. They profit from war
and tension. They profit from manipulating markets and, in effect, stealing the wealth someone
else created.
So, this is not to say that Nordstream 2 is some kind of messianic gift from the gods or
anything. It is the result of massive interventions into the free market for energy born of
necessity in a world governed by nation-states for more powerful than they have any right to be
because of control of the issuance of money and the rent-seeking behavior of the
people who most benefit from the creation of endless supplies of that money.
But, that said, in the current state of things, rapprochement between Germany and Russia via
projects like the Nordstream 2 points us towards a future without such nonsense.
I said points, not achieves. It's a beginning not an end. Lost in all of this discussion of
European energy security is the fact that even at the height of the Cold War the U.S.S.R. never
once shut off gas supplies to its enemies. And under Putin that fact remains.
And how's that for an inconvenient truth.
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Порошенко
заявил немцам,
что
строительство
"Северного
потока – 2" не
имеет никакого
смыслаPoroshenko has told Germans that the
construction of "North Stream 2" makes no sense. По его словам,
российский газ
европейцам
гораздо
выгоднее
получать через
Украину, а
новый
газопровод –
лишь
"инструмент
давления" на
Европу According to him, it is much more profitable to send Russian gas to Europe through the
Ukraine, and the new pipeline is just a "tool to pressurize" on Europe
Please help me get even more wealthier, I beg you!
The leader of "Independent" Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, has once again tried to convince
Europeans that they do not need the "North Stream 2", pipeline, which is being constructed on
the bed of the Baltic sea, bypassing the Ukraine
"This pipeline makes no sense from an economic point of view. This is a Russian attempt
to weaken the Ukraine, which previously received about three billion dollars annually for
transit", he said in an interview with German newspaper "Rheinische Post".
According to Poroshenko, "Why spend $20 billion on a pipeline", if his country "has
more than sufficient logistical capacity for the delivery of Russian gas to Europe". He
stressed that "the facts speak against" this project.
The President of the Ukraine has decided to warn his "European friends" that the gas
pipeline "North Stream 2" is "a geopolitical instrument of pressure on Western Europe, and
that the dependence of European countries on gas supplies from Russia is opening up a wide
area for their blackmailing".
Recall, as reported by the website kp.ru previously, the Chancellor of Germany, Angela
Merkel, speaking at a joint press conference with the President of Lithuania, Dalia
Grybauskaite, and the Prime Ministers of the three Baltic State countries, stated the
importance of the "North Stream 2" project for Germany, noting that the need of her contry
for natural gas supplies will only grow.
Put a sock in it, Banderatard. Nord Stream II makes sense merely because it removes the $3
billion per year of transit fees you parasites charge. The Banderatard thinks that everyone
is an innumerate moron.
I notice the estimated transit fees have gone up by almost a billion dollars. I wonder if
they have budgeted in planned increases if they are successful at getting Nord Stream II shut
down. Or were they just low-balling the figures before, like when they were joking about the
planned pipeline and how it would make no difference to Ukraine?
Ignoring reality and focusing just on a comparison of a $3 billion recurring expense versus a
$20 billion CAPEX, a ROI of less than 7 years is quite respectable for a major project.
Russia and the West are facing the worst crisis since the Cold War. According to US Special
Envoy Amos Hochstein, Washington's goal is to reduce Russia's gas market share in Eastern
Europe by 20% by 2020.
Russia cannot be allowed to build a gas pipeline that would bypass
Ukraine, as it would pose a threat to Europe's energy security
Pipeline bypassing Ukraine = threat to Europe's energy security
That is a total non sequitur. Also, Russia is part of Europe. The EU is not the whole of
"Europe". In fact, the EU is not even the EU as evidenced by Hungary and Italy.
And Washington can have Eastern Europe. Go ahead – take them as customers, and sell
them expensive LNG they can't afford. Russia would probably be glad to be shut of Poland and
the Baltics. And having to pay way more for their gas would teach them a lesson. Win/win.
Pipeline bypassing Ukraine = threat to Europe's energy security
That is a total non sequitur. Also, Russia is part of Europe. The EU is not the whole of
"Europe". In fact, the EU is not even the EU as evidenced by Hungary and Italy.
And Washington can have Eastern Europe. Go ahead – take them as customers, and sell
them expensive LNG they can't afford. Russia would probably be glad to be shut of Poland and
the Baltics. And having to pay way more for their gas would teach them a lesson. Win/win.
Doesn't the pipeline via the lo-land of Po-land go via Belarus? Warsaw buying gas from
elsewhere would starve Minsk of transit fees, no? Maybe the idea is similarly to undermine
Belarus and thus impose further costs/indirect sanctions on Russia?
Another problem is how much gas for sale the USA actually has? Or they want to resell gas
they buy for Russia Sakhalin? They already did a couple of times.
Oh, please, God, let the USA impose sanctions on European companies in an attempt to stop the
building of Nord Stream II (which, incidentally, has begun and is already underwater).
I can't think of anything more likely to incite European fury against America, and while
we're on the subject, under what authority would the USA fine European companies for not
obeying sanctions imposed by the USA? I can see how they could get away with further
penalizing Russia – they are piggybacking on the Skripal affair, that's why they
pretend so fervently to believe Britain's accusations even though it has offered no proof at
all, just more accusations. The legal instrument it is using is a national-security clause
(big surprise) meant to stop the spread of chemical-warfare threats. But how is it going to
justify imposing a big fine on BASF-Wintershall, for example, and what would it do if the
latter simply said, "Cram it up your chuff!" and refused to pay?
Anyway, the calling-out of Britain's 'evidence' in front of the UN is going to be
extra-special, in that light. Because the Skripal thing is the USA's whole basis for further
sanctions. Without it – if the case is demolished, and I frankly can't see how the UK
government could sensibly respond to all the discrepancies picked up at sites like Slane's
'Blogmire' – they've got nothing; no grounds for further sanctions.
And that was perfectly possible, had it been started years ago, and had the USA come to
Europe with a business plan which answered the question, "What's in it for me?" Everybody in
business likes to make money; it's kind of what keeps business going. And if the USA could
still sell to Europe under those circumstances – because it has a lot of a product it
can sell at a competitive price and still make money – it would still be possible to do
it. The problem there is that the USA cannot sell LNG at a competitive price against pipeline
gas and still make money. A further problem is that in business dynamics, the guy who has
control in a business relationship is the guy who supplies you with a product you can't get
anywhere else at the same or a lower price.
The USA wants the profits realized by selling gas to Europe, and right away, that's not
going to work, because shipborne LNG cannot compete with pipeline gas for price. The USA
would have to sell it for a lot less than it takes to recover and ship it, and it's not
willing to do that because it is contrary to every principle of business. But that's a big
problem, because the profit is actually secondary. What Washington really wants is the power
conveyed by being Europe's main supplier – then it can play energy politics like it
constantly accuses Russia of doing, although actual evidence of Russia threatening to cut off
Europe's gas if it does not, let's say, drop sanctions against Russia, is zip, Nada. No
evidence. But Washington would do it, and you know they would, and so does Brussels. So it is
trying to muscle Europe's main supplier out of the market by coercion, because it can't do it
simply by offering a better price.
Which leaves it in the ridiculous position of arguing, "We should be your supplier instead
of Russia, because ain't we the bestest of friends and allies?", at the same time it is
conducting a trade war for American business advantage and threatening to impose sanctions
against European companies who participate in the pipeline project as investors.
Here we go again with reliable pot-stirrer the UK, in the form of a ruling by the UK Court of
Appeals that Ukraine does have a valid case, after all, of grieving the ordered repayment of $3
Billion it was lent by Moscow after Yanukovych decided to reject the European Association
Agreement, and petitioned Russia for assistance.
Some facts that should be recalled here; Ukraine has to the very best of my knowledge
never paid this debt, although the IMF
grudgingly backed Russia's claim that it was a bilateral loan . Then Ukraine imposed a
moratorium on further payments, trying to squeeze Russia into accepting a 'restructuring' of
the debt, a colourful euphemism for 'write off some of it and give us until forever to pay
the rest', allowing Ukraine to simply roll over its outstanding debt each year and put off
payment until the promised western flood of incredible prosperity finally arrives.
The ever-helpful IMF then rewrote its own laws so that it could continue lending to
Ukraine although it exhibited all the classic symptoms of a bad debtor. Most of us said it
would all end in tears for the IMF, and where is it now, again? How much of that $17 Billion
aid package has been disbursed?
Georgetown University Professor Anna Gelpern offered Ukraine
an out , stating that in her legal opinion, the obligation amounted to 'odious debt',
which consequently did not have to be repaid. Longtime kook Anders Aslund enthusiastically
embraced that view, bleating that really Russia should be repaying Ukraine, for invading and
plundering it.
Let me give you my not-legal opinion; Ukraine does not have a hope of winning this case.
The UK is just trying to help it kick the can a little further down the road, and put off
repayment for another year or two while the courts wrangle the issue out all over again, and
lawyers pocket hefty fees. It also serves the British hobby of sticking its thumb in Russia's
eye every chance it gets to do it. The money is probably not a big issue to Russia; it's the
principle, and it would probably suit the Kremlin to duke it out in court again just on the
probability that Ukraine will suffer another humiliating defeat, although that will make no
difference at all to its willingness to pay. I propose, though, another option; one to be
exercised immediately, and one down the road a bit. First, communicate to Kuh-yiv that if it
goes ahead with this, Russia will pull out all foreign investment in Ukraine, immediately and
finally. I personally do not think the economy could sustain that kind of hit, since it is on
life support now. Second, Russia should communicate to Britain that once Brexit becomes
operative, the UK will have to negotiate with Europe for energy supplies and pay their asking
price, since there will be no direct transfers of energy to the UK. That might have been the
case anyway, since to the best of my knowledge no systems serve the UK directly from Russia
except LNG cargoes. But it would not hurt to remind them.
It occurs to me that the west has only itself to blame for Ukraine's current and ongoing
dysfunction and 'cutie-pie' criminality, since the west keeps encouraging it to greater
heights of irresponsibility, covering for it and then rewriting its own rules so that
behaviour previously illegal is magically permissible.
The London High Court is not going to like being reversed; such reversals often do not look
good for the judges, although there certainly cannot be any murmuring of 'political
motivation' here, since the court was most decidedly motivated to rule for Ukraine in the
original judgment if it could. As I said, this is just kicking the can down the road a piece,
and buying time for Kuh-yiv. And that might be a valid strategy, if a burgeoning economy was
about to break free in Ukraine. Is that the case? I'm afraid I don't think so. In fact,
Ukraine is broke and living on handouts, its reserves down to record lows; it doesn't have
the money, so the UK is trying to rig the judgment so as to head off its having to pay, at
least temporarily. More short-term thinking, such as is characteristic of crisis management.
The Appeals Court is likely ruling on a technicality because it believes (or has been
encouraged to believe) it deserves further examination. But, again, I have to believe that in
such a politically-charged case, the court which rendered the original verdict would have
carefully picked over every argument which might have worked in Ukraine's favour, since the
UK was highly motivated to support Ukraine if there were any way it could legally do so. The
efficacy, reliability and non-volatility of Eurobonds is at stake here, and a ruling now for
Ukraine is likely to provoke a drawback from Eurobonds and European financial instruments by
every nation that perceives it is or might one day be perceived as a foe of a Europe still in
thrall to the United States. Russia chose such an instrument precisely because of the high
risk of a Ukrainian default even if Yanukovych had remained in power, and that was a wise
decision to the extent that the west has had to completely rewrite the book in order to
challenge the stratagem. That, too, will play to its great disadvantage down the road, as
every debtor nation has the right of precedent to exercise such options.
The funny thing is that if Europe simply laid out the situation bluntly to Moscow, as an
equal and a respected partner to the deal, and asked for mercy for Ukraine, there is every
chance Moscow would find a way to accommodate, provided it was given due credit for its
magnanimity. Instead, as usual, Europe has gone with a strategy of creating the appearance
that Moscow fucked Ukraine, breaking the law in the process. It will be interesting to see
what Alexander Mercouris has to say about this, and I am sure he will offer an opinion, but
I'm afraid I haven't time now as I have to get ready for work. But I should like to once more
point out that all the advantage lies with Russia here, if it only remains patient and keeps
its temper; it is Russia which is keeping Ukraine alive now, through transit fees and
significant FDI. It can choose to withdraw one at any time it pleases, and the other as soon
as Nord Stream II is completed. The west's attempts to change the beloved 'facts on the
ground' amount to no more than scrabbling at the noose that is tightening around Ukraine's
throat.
Below is a New Silk Strategies translation from the Russian site teknoblog.ru .
It is clear from Trump's enthusiastic sales talk to the Polish authorities on July 6, 2017
(as we reported here
) that the centrepiece of Trump's economic policy is LNG exports. The US has no major economic
projects even remotely comparable to China's One Belt One Road initiative, the biggest
infrastructure project in history. But worse, all of the energy companies involved in fracking
are
running in the red with no prospects of ever making profits unless oil prices skyrocket to
new highs and stay there. The wells are short-lived and by the time they are producing
steadily, they are already drying up, necessitating new drilling and more borrowing. Worse,
that big deal with China to sujpply a major portion of their gas needs may be about to fizzle,
thanks to Trump's tough guy act.
In 2016, Henry Kissinger
floated the idea of using Russia to oppose China and shared the idea with an enthusiastic
Donald Trump. Kissinger had entertained this idea in the 1970s as Nixon's national security
adviser. The problem is, the whole notion of granting China "most-favoured nation" status, ie,
doing essentially free trade with it, was based on just the opposite mission of opposing
Russia using China as a club, and both ideas have their die-hard supporters
in Washington. Keen observers know neither approach will succeed. In fact, recently the
National Interest reported that China and Russia are planning joint military drills.
"... In return for the EU dropping billions of dollars in penalty fees, GazProm agreed to end limitations on the use of gas purchased by EU members, allow them to re-sell the gas ..."
"... About the Author ..."
"... Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the 'New Cold War ..."
"... Russia's Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet Communist Regime, 1985-2000 ..."
"... Russia's Islamic Threat ..."
"... The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global Jihadism in Russia's North Caucasus and Beyond ..."
Russia has advanced forward in something of a tactical and potential strategic victory in
the Russo-Western gas war. This is a three-party war, with the US, EU, and Russia each
promoting separate interests. It is one sphere where a united West has failed to 'isolate
Russia.' The US seeks move in on the European energy market with LNG supplies and replace
Russian pipeline-delivered natural gas supplies to Europe. Washington is using the risks of
dependence on Russian gas and Russia's 'bad behavior' as leverage in attempting to convince
Europeans to reject Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Russia is said to be unreliable and prone
to shut off gas supplies to Europe.
Due to past Russian-Ukrainian gas crises, the Ukrainian crisis, and general Russian-Western
tensions, Europe has decided on a gas diversification policy in which each EU member should
have at least three sources of natural gas supply. One additional option that could facilitate
this diversification policy is US liquified natural gas (LNG), but the US is still unable to
supply enough LNG to offset Russian gas supplies that might be rejected by Europe. In the
process, Washington is looking less like a 'team West' player and more like a solely
self-interested power maximizer in European eyes and therefore no more reliable than Moscow. As
a result, Europeans are deciding to stick with the Russians while finding new options in the
east, such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. This is creating competition if not tensions in present
and potential gas transit countries in southeastern and eastern Europe, for example.
The Battle Over Re-Sale: No Victors
One recent battle was largely inconclusive, but if a victor has to be designated it may be
Moscow. In May, the European Commssion concluded a settlement with Russia's Gazprom in May
ending a seven-year anti-trust dispute. In return for the EU dropping billions of dollars in
penalty fees, GazProm agreed to end limitations on the use of gas purchased by EU members,
allow them to re-sell the gas. Some EU members, such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia have re-sold or wanted to re-sell gas. Moscow
frowned, for example, on Slovakia's resale of natural gas to Ukraine at cheaper prices than
Moscow sought to charge Kiev.
The agreement will also restrict Moscow's ability to charge
different countries different prices. So EU members in central and eastern Europe can get a
price close to that paid by Germany and appeal to an arbitration court in case of a dispute.
The agreement guarantees Russia's presence on the European gas market at a time when the
latter's reliance on the former has peaked.
The Northern Front: Nord Stream 2
At the same time, the battle over Russia' Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline has heated up.
When it comes on line in 2019, the 759-mile pipeline will carry GazProm natural gas along the
bed of the Baltic Sea to Germany and double the supply Nord Stream pipeline's current annual
capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm). The Trump administration has threatened yet more
sanctions on third-party companies, this time with those that work on the pipeline. The US
sanctions threat is an attempt to promote American LNG interests as well as to protect
Ukrainian interests, though it contradicts the view that Ukraine should eschew its dependence
on Russian gas.
US officials have been hammering home to Europeans the 'Russian threat' in tandem with the
risk of reliance on Russian gas may pose, which will increase with Nord tream 2, but to no
avail. Public opinion is not working in the US favor, with Germans trusting Moscow more than
Washington, despite all the crimes laid at the Kremlin's door by the West. A recent ZDF
Television opinion survey found that only 14 percent of Germans regard the U.S. as a reliable
partner, while 36 percent view Russia as reliable (
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/trump-s-global-disruption-pushes-merkel-closer-to-putin-s-orbit
). Thus, notwithstanding Ukraine, Syria and alleged chemical attacks, Russiagate, and the
Skrypals, GazProm's supplies to Europe have risen to hold nearly 40 percent of its gas market,
growing last year by 8.1 percent last year to a record level of 193.9 billion cubic metres
(bcm).
Nevertheless, with the EU decision, the U.S., Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and others have
stepped up their pressure on Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and other western Eureopean EU
members to abandon the Nord Stream 2 project. Germans and other western Europeans are unlikely
to give up the short-term gain of energy security for the US LNG given the higher price and
unproven nature of Washington's numerous allegations against the Kremlin. German officials say
they still have no proof from 10 Downing on Russia's culpability for the Skrypal poisoning so
loudly trumpeted by British PM Theresa May.
One motivation for the Russians in building Nord Stream 2 is to obviate the need to
transport gas through Ukraine, which will hurt Ukraine's own energy supply – given
Ukrainian skimming -- and overall economy beyond the present non-sale of Russian gas to
Ukraine. Another Russian motivation is to avert the unreliable Ukrainians, who have failed to
make payments according to contract in the past causing Russian gas cutoffs to Ukraine and thus
Europe with the resulting crises blamed solely on Moscow. The Trump sanctions threat has put
Germany and the other Nord Stream 2 supporting countries between a rock and a hard place,
between Russia and the US. Therefore, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while supporting Nord
Stream 2, has called for guarantees from Russia that Ukraine will remain a gas transit country.
Ukraine's current contract with Russia ends in 2019 at the very time Nord Stream 2 is to go on
line and the EU has urged re-starting EU-mediated negotiatons now in order to avoid another gas
crisis. Putin agreed to do this at his meeting with Germany's merkel in late May. Nord Stream 2
significantly strengthens Putin's hand in any such talks.
The Southern Front: Turkish Stream, SGC and the Azeri and Bulgarian Factors
Russia is strengtheining its position on the European gas war's southern front by building
the Turkish Stream (TS) gas pipeline to Europe. TS consists of a sea and a land leg. The former
runs under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and is built, with Russo-Turkish talks on the
land leg ongoing.
Russia's Turkish Stream is being challenged by the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) backed by
Western powers, including the EU (along with Turkey and Azerbaijan), which sees the SGC as a
means of diversifying from dependence on Russia. Not just Turkey, but Azerbaijan is emerging as
a major player on the EU gas market, with a shift in policy accenting gas supplies to Europe as
well as oil supplies as in the past. The SGC consists of three components: an expanded South
Caucasus Pipeline and the to be constructed Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and
Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). TANAP is 51 percent Azerbaijani owned, 37 percent Turkish, and
12 percent belonging to British Petroleum. The SGC will carry Azerbaijani gas through Turkey to
Europe and will be able to supply up to one-third of the gas consumed by Bulgaria, Greece and
Italy ( https://en.trend.az/business/energy/2910573.html
). However, the source of the gas supplying the pipeline demonstrates the limits of Western
attempts to isolate Russia (and Iran). Azerbaijan's Shah-Deniz gas field is co-owned by British
Petroleum (29 percent), Turkey's Turkish Petroleum (19 percent), Azerbaijan's SOCAR (17
percent), Malaysia's Petronas (15 percent), Russia's LukOil (10 percent), and Iran's NICO (10
percent). Moreover, Russia's LukOil is negotiating with SOCAR a stake in Azerbaijan's
second-largest gas field, Umid-Babek, which also includes Britain's Nobel Upstream (
https://newsbase.com/topstories/lukoil-talks-join-umid-babek-project
).
Again the Ukrainian issue is part of the picture here, as a good portion of GasProm supplies
to Bulgaria go through Ukraine. Turkish Stream can replace at least some of that supply should
Moscow decide to entirely avert Ukraine's pipeline system. It is of interest that no one in the
West has offered to include in any of these projects or attempted to fashion a pipeline or
pipeline extension that could link up with the Ukrainian network.
During Bulgarian President Rumen Radev's late may visit to Moscow, Putin reported to Radev
that during his meetings with Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan, the latter said he would
pose no oppsotion to extending the Turkish Stream gas pipeline to Bulgaria. In response, Radev
seemed to suggest making Bulgaria a "a gas redistribution center, a hub" for the Turkish
Stream's supplies further into Europe ( http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57608
).
Moreover, one gets the impression that Bulgaria is wary more about its dependence on Turkey
and Ankara's new offensive energy policy in Europe than on Russia and might help Moscow detour
Ukraine.
In 2015, Erdogan declared a major policy initiative of making Turkey a, if not
the major energy transit hub for supplies heading from the east to Europe.
Russia's
annexation of Crimea could help Russia in its talks both with Erdogan over the Turkish Stream
and pose the threat of undermining the SGC. It may also help Putin deal with Merkel, Kiev and
the EU over the Ukraine pipeline system's future role. Bulgarian President Radev also said in
Moscow that Sofia supports building a direct gas pipeline under the Black Sea to bring Russian
gas to Bulgaria ( https://echo.msk.ru/news/2206394-echo.html ).
The Bulgarian option could be used by Putin to threaten Erdogan with reducing the Turkish
Stream's supplies or abandoning it altogether in favor of a Black Sea Russian-Bulgarian Stream
and to reduce Russia's dependence on Ukraine as well.
Implications
Thus, EU energy diversification policies are transforming Turkey, Azerbaijan and perhaps
even Bulgaria into key players on the southern gas transit front, while Ukraine falters to
Germany, and eastern Europe to Western Europe on the northern front.
Tensions between Ankara
and Sofia on these grounds cannot be excluded, and they could draw in Turkey's semi-ally
Azerbaijan. US, EU, Russian and Ukrainian energy diplomacy is likely not only to be focused on
each other, therefore, but also on Ankara, Baku, and Sofia over the next year.
Unless, the US
can rapidly reduce the cost of extracting and shipping LNG to Europe, it is unlikely to be able
to become a major alternative to these players, and Russia will continue to dominate the
European gas market, with a balance of competition and cooperation with Azerbaijan.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
About the Author – Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., Expert Analyst at Corr
Analytics, http://www.canalyt.com and a
Senior Researcher at the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group,
San Jose, California, www.cetisresearch.org .
Dr. Hahn is the author of Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the 'New Cold
War (McFarland Publishers, 2017) and three previously and well-received books:
Russia's Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet
Communist Regime, 1985-2000 (Transaction Publishers, 2002); Russia's Islamic
Threat (Yale University Press, 2007); and The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global
Jihadism in Russia's North Caucasus and Beyond (McFarland Publishers, 2014). He has
published numerous think tank reports, academic articles, analyses, and commentaries in both
English and Russian language media and has served as a consultant and provided expert testimony
to the U.S. government.
Dr. Hahn also has taught at Boston, American, Stanford, San Jose State, and San Francisco
State Universities and as a Fulbright Scholar at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia. He
has been a senior associate and visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies and the Kennan Institute in Washington DC as well as the Hoover Institution at Stanford
University.
"... If the reports are true, the situation is an ironic one for Europe: while trying to reduce its dependence on Russian gas it is inadvertently increasing it and is even paying more for it than it would if it bought the extra loads directly from Gazprom. ..."
The documents suggest that a company with US ownership is buying Russian
gas from petrochemical giant Sibur, and then selling it -- at a profit, of course -- to the
European Union, which is in a rush to build as many LNG terminals as it can in a bid to reduce
its dependence on Russian gas.
If the reports are true, the situation is an ironic one for Europe: while trying to reduce
its dependence on Russian gas it is inadvertently increasing it and is even paying more for it
than it would if it bought the extra loads directly from Gazprom.
One might wonder how a U.S. company is able to do business with a Russian one. It's simple:
Wilbur Ross himself said earlier this week that
Sibur is not a subject to sanctions, so for Navigator Holdings and the petrochemical giant,
everything is business as usual.
According to Balmasov, while the number of voyages via the Northern Sea Route so far
this year has been roughly the same as last year, the main difference compared to 2017 is LNG
traffic out of the port of Sabetta, the port that Russia's gas producer Novatek uses to ship
the Yamal LNG cargoes to Europe and to Asia.
Arctic Logistics data compiled by Bloomberg shows that by early July, a total of 34
tankers made the voyage from Sabetta to Europe, and one to the east. Since early July,
another two LNG tankers have shipped the fuel to Asia
In mid-July, Novatek said that it had shipped its first LNG cargoes from Yamal LNG to
China via the Northern Sea Route, with the voyage from Sabetta completed in 19 days, compared
to 35 days for the traditional eastern route via the Suez Canal and the Strait of
Malacca
####
Tut tut! Cannot have LNG going via Russia's northern passage (fnar! fnar!).
Vis ship pollution, why simply hold LNG carriers up to much higher environmental
standards? After all most of them are much newer and are specialist vessels. Or are they
already? Indeed they are, the use of duel-fuel engines that can make use of boil-off:
As of 2005, a total of 203 vessels had been built, of which 193 were still in service.
At the end of 2016, the global LNG shipping fleet consisted of 439 vessels.[3] In 2017, an
estimated 170 vessels are in use at any one time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LNG_carrier#Reliquefaction_and_boil-off
According to WGI, on a typical voyage an estimated 0.1–0.25% of the cargo converts to
gas each day, depending on the efficiency of the insulation and the roughness of the
voyage.[16] In a typical 20-day voyage, anywhere from 2–6% of the total volume of LNG
originally loaded may be lost.[16]
Normally an LNG tanker is powered by steam turbines with boilers. These boilers are
dual fuel and can run on either methane or oil or a combination of both. ..
I love how an eventuality we were all raised to dread – the melting of the polar
ice caps – is now spun as a net positive. Make hay while the sun shines! When life
hands you lemons, make lemonade! Pick your metaphor. We are destroying the planet we live on,
inch by irrecoverable inch, but the merchants of Stay-Positive maintain it is
AWESOME.
I don't know if you heard – probably not, since it was never much of an
international story – but the Canadian Federal Court of Appeals, in a surprise
decision, overturned the government's commitment to the Trans-Mountain pipeline.
Alberta's Rachel Notley reportedly bent spoons with her teeth, since she had just
jubilantly reported that the court challenge by the city of Burnaby (British Columbia) was
defeated. "To date, Alberta has won every case brought against Trans Mountain. Your Alberta
government will not back down until this pipeline is built and the national interest is
secured", she crowed on Twitter; the modern equivalent of a legislature, I guess, since all
politicians who are anybody turn first to Twitter to get their message out.
That one, of course, was "a victory for all Canadians". Except for British Columbia's
crybabies, of course, who did not want to play host to Alberta's tanker armada, considering
Alberta has no seacoast. So you would think she would quietly accept this later decision by
the legal system she purports to revere. Not a bit of it. She immediately withdrew Alberta
from the national climate-change plan, and restarted her rhetoric about cutting off BC's gas
supply.
Get it? When the court rules in Alberta's favour, it is just – the solemn power
of the law makes you want to weep with awe. When it rules against Alberta, it is a clown show
of unevolved primates. That's modern politics.
All this theatre when the completion of the pipeline is inevitable – the very
day, almost to the hour that the Court of Appeals rendered its decision, the shareholders of
Kinder-Morgan Canada voted 99% in favour of selling the pipeline to the government of Canada.
So now the government owns it, and although it may be delayed a couple of years, it's down
but not out. Now the government has to re-do its consultations with all the native bands,
this time selling the impression that it is actually listening and the consultative process
is real, and it has to conduct a review of the environmental impact of increased tanker
traffic (which it formerly declaimed as outside its purview). I'd say if there is agreement
on changing some routes and perhaps permissible speed until well offshore, it will almost
certainly pass next time.
You seem ignorant about economic issues. For example, when it comes to natural gas market,
European countries are not in the same boat. Britain and Spain import virtually no gas from
Russia. These countries built lots LNG terminals and import from Qatar.
Germany, Italy and France have a well-diversified supply from multiple sources. The
countries that are truly dependent on Russia are in ex-communist Eastern Europe. They still
rely on a network of pipelines built by USSR, and would go into energy crisis if Russia
suddenly ended supply.
There is no Chinese FDI in Belarus, and in Russia it accounts for 1% of the total FDI.
Nobody is learning Chinese in Russia or Belarus. I don't know what you're smoking.
Your comment implies that people should continue to bang their heads against a wall.
In fact, no one has said NOT to participate in politics. To be effective, it's important
to understand the reality of politics and the power structure.
Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing
business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while
average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.
The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination
...
That's why candidates like Ron Paul on the Republican side and Denis Kucinich on the
Democratic side never stood a chance. They made way too much sense; they dared speak truth to
power so they had to be marginalized by their respective parties so no one would take them
seriously. They were literally swallowed up by the duopoly and relegated to
quasi-obscurity.
I would say 'contra-Russia'. Trump is just the current vessel.
Let us not forget, that under the mighty and loved O-bomber, a group of US Senators back
in 2014 made Bulgaria drop South Stream with god knows what threats, whereas Brussels had
previously failed (intentionally?) to do so. Guess who was the lead Senator?
At this time there is a request from the European Commission, after which we've suspended
the current works, I ordered it," Oresharski told journalists after meeting with John McCain,
Chris Murphy and Ron Johnson during their visit to Bulgaria on Sunday. "Further proceedings
will be decided after additional consultations with Brussels."
McCain, commenting on the situation, said that "Bulgaria should solve the South Stream
problems in collaboration with European colleagues," adding that in the current situation
they would want "less Russian involvement" in the project.
"America has decided that it wants to put itself in a position where it excludes anybody
it doesn't like from countries where it thinks it might have an interest, and there is no
economic rationality in this at all. Europeans are very pragmatic, they are looking for cheap
energy resources – clean energy resources, and Russia can supply that. But the thing
with the South Stream is that it doesn't fit with the politics of the situation," Ben Aris,
editor of Business New Europe told RT .
####
See, nothing has changed. At least it looks like U-rope has learned its lesson. Not so the
US. Russia hatin' is a too good 'dead cat on the table' to give up.
Underneath everyone's observations/comments lurks the basic question: Why?
Enter the Big Picture provided yesterday by Pepe Escobar who also links to and cites the
controversial Alastair Crooke ideological essay I linked to last week. Part of the Big
Picture is the #1 policy goal of the Outlaw US Empire--Full Spectrum Dominance of the
Planet--and its recently published National Defense
Strategy(NDS) related to that goal:
"The central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term,
strategic competition by what the National Security Strategy classifies as revisionist
powers. It is increasingly clear that China and Russia want to shape a world consistent with
their authoritarian model -- gaining veto authority over other nations' economic, diplomatic,
and security decisions."
Do please note the combination of prevarication with ideology in the above as it's
reflective of the point Crooke tried to make in his piece. A strategy based upon lies to
oneself is a sure recipe for defeat as you're deceiving yourself which violates the first law
of war as pronounced by so many: "All war is based on deception." But then given the
political-economic nature of the USA's Keynesian Militarism, perhaps this deception is aimed
domestically so as to transfer even more tax dollars upwards to the 1%. So, actions must be
closely observed even more than usual.
During the election campaign, it was speculated that Trump's desire to ease tensions with
Russia was a last-ditch gambit suggested by Kissinger to split the Chinese-Russian alliance.
So, Russiagate served to defeat that gambit while pushing China and Russia even closer
together. With the Syrian regime change ploy rapidly being defeated and Ukraine going
nowhere, Deep State planners were left without an oar, so the reversion to Cold War
Russophobia with an occasional bout of Sinophobia thrown in for good measure--neither of
which is any sort of strategy.
Another quote from the NDS:
"Today, we are emerging from a period of strategic atrophy, aware that our competitive
military
advantage has been eroding."
That was realized before Putin's display of highly advanced Russian weaponry, which was
announced in March, the NDS was released in January. What's amazing is "strategic atrophy"
with budgets beyond $600 billion must mean a massive portion's being wasted--delivered to the
1%--such that it's corruption that's caused the erosion of "our competitive advantage." I'd
opine much of the chaos we see being played-up is done to obscure interpretations like mine
so that even more $$$ can be wasted, although lip service is given to improvements.
So, who/what's really in charge? Big Money rules as it has since the Civil War within the
USA and much earlier when we include London and Amsterdam. Big Money's angry because it's
locked out of BRI, BRICS, EAEU, and developing nations are mostly on to IMF's and World
Bank's disingenuous "development" plans because it abhors the notion that it's not Top Dog.
So, the dollar got weaponized and the Trade and Financial War--the Hybrid Third World
War--was finally begun in earnest after earlier fits and starts. Yet it appears that the
effort will fail since Big Money is finding itself trapped inside a web of its own making
that's based on a fiat currency supported by Junk Economics.
It is reported that the German company and partner in Nord Stream II, Uniper, may pull out
of the project due to the risk of US sanctions (previously it said Uniper will pull
out sic see link.).* In related news, construction has been started in German waters.
Still silence from Denmark as to whether they will block it or not.
If I were Moscow, I would announce that the pipeline's route will avoid Danish waters and
sit back to see the reaction. Why? Coz you can bet that some will claim it is
punishment/bribe/threat/anti-competitive to Denmark, to whit, Russia can simply reply that
Denmark has XXX days to provide the permits before it is no longer economically feasible for
the route to go through its waters.
What p* me off about the reported 'threat from NSII' and even in articles like the one
above that point out it is in Europe's interest, none of them mention the preceding sabotage
of South Stream II under the mighty Obama and the impact from that led directly to
Nord Stream II.
At this time there is a request from the European Commission, after which we've
suspended the current works, I ordered it," Oresharski told journalists after meeting with
John McCain, Chris Murphy and Ron Johnson during their visit to Bulgaria on Sunday. "Further
proceedings will be decided after additional consultations with Brussels."
McCain, commenting on the situation, said that "Bulgaria should solve the South Stream
problems in collaboration with European colleagues," adding that in the current situation
they would want "less Russian involvement" in the project.
"America has decided that it wants to put itself in a position where it excludes
anybody it doesn't like from countries where it thinks it might have an interest, and there
is no economic rationality in this at all. Europeans are very pragmatic, they are looking for
cheap energy resources – clean energy resources, and Russia can supply that. But the
thing with the South Stream is that it doesn't fit with the politics of the situation," Ben
Aris, editor of Business New Europe told RT .
####
Yes kids. Warmonger McCain was at the forefront of getting it killed after interference
from Brussels failed to shift the asshole Borissov's government. So when a European asks
"What has John McCain done for us? , he's already f*ed you over for the benefit of the US
and U-ropean poodle Krazy K**t Klan.
And let's remember what a hard lesson Bulgaria learned from its leap of faith into
Brussels' arms.
On May 30, Bulgarian PM Boyko Borisov met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During
the joint press conference, Borisov apologized to Putin for the failure of South Stream and
for his responsibility in causing the deterioration of relations between the two countries.
Borisov said: "We know about the difficult relations in the past and are grateful to our
colleagues for not being vindictive and the fact that Russian-Bulgarian relations do not
depend on the extent of guilt of some politicians
"I would like to thank President Putin for his attitude once again. I am to blame for
creating certain tensions When it came to the worst and I wanted to talk, my calls were
always answered. And I really accept part of the guilt for those developments."
Putin then added that he regrets that the South Stream project has not been
implemented, since it would have "greatly benefited" Bulgaria.
In response, Borisov blamed the EU of having imposed Bulgaria diktats that other
countries do not respect anyway. Borisov said: "We are the most loyal and the most
disciplined country in the European Union. This is the reason why all the pipelines bypassed
our territory. We hope that today we have redressed an injustice.
Bulgaria stepped up when the European Commission called and got absolutely fuck-all in the
way of thanks or compensation – to the contrary, the decision cost Bulgaria a great
deal of money. Let that be a lesson to other EU countries; Brussels is big on ideas, but it
does not have your back and if your stepping-up causes your country grief and it turns out
you made a terrible mistake, and want to talk about it
There is absolutely nobody else to blame but Borissov himself, a third rate playa .
The position of neither Brussels nor Washington was a surprise at all. They are very well
known quantities. Big surprise. Not.
Borissov vacillated and played the same failed and weak gambit we have seen for years in
the Ukraine. That he is still around as the biggest fish in the local fish shop is that he is
the biggest spineless shit that floats to the surface while the opposition is little more
than useless. That is repeated elsewhere in the neighborhood to various degrees and where it
is not, it's a choice between two sides of the same gangster/clan coin. To misquote Douglas
Adams, So long, and thanks for none of the fish.
Well, I don't think a decision has been made yet. But the consortium has 'applied to
Denmark for an alternate route' – which, since the alternate route would not go through
Danish territorial waters, implies Denmark does not really have any say over it, and is
essentially a challenge to Denmark to either veto the original route on security grounds (you
never know, Putin might hide submarines in it, or Novichok or something) or get on with it.
But Denmark is presented with more or less the Bulgarian Alternative: do Washington's bidding
and get a pat on the head, or defy it and get transit fees.
All the news on the subject that I saw announced that the consortium is 'exploring' an
alternate route. It seems they are still hopeful the original route will be cleared, but are
getting it on the table that denying it will not stop the project.
But of course western 'analysts' continue to squeal that Putin and the Kremlin are using
the Nord Stream II pipeline to 'invade Europe'. Curiously, the same people who once smirked
scornfully that Nord Stream II was not needed because the current pipeline is only running at
half-capacity now claim "even with Nord Stream 2 on line Russia would still need to send
substantial amounts of gas through Ukraine – at least until the upcoming TurkStream
pipeline is also finished." Whoa – wut? Even both legs of Nord Stream running at full
capacity will not be enough? You don't say.
Once again, nobody is forcing Europe to take more Russian gas than it needs, although the
draw-down of domestic supplies suggest it will need more all the time unless 'green energy'
becomes more commercially viable and reliable. Certain players want Europe's gas to go
through Ukraine for two reasons – one, Ukraine badly needs the money from transit fees
to prop up its calamitous economy. Two, it is a ready tickle-trunk of conflict whenever the
west wants to make problems for Russia; presto! Ukraine is in a new fight with Russia over
gas prices, and Europe is trembling with fear that its gas supplies will be shut off.
Here, you numpties – let me solve the problem for you. Soon there is going to be a
perfectly good (according to Ukraine and the west) pipeline network idling without much to
do. Why not let all those competitors Europe is always gibbering about use Ukraine's pipeline
network to send their gas to Europe? They could have the whole thing all to
themselves, completely cutting Gazprom out of Ukraine! What a victory that would be! And they
could pay Ukraine transit fees, saving the day there and bringing enormous comfort to
Ukrainian economists! It's win/win!
See,
this is why I enjoy Leonid Bershidsky's writing . Despite his idealistic prattling that
Russia is actually guilty of all the things America says it is – his ultimate loyalty
is still to his adopted homeland, the land of milk and honey – he remains essentially a
realist. And his take on the economic dynamics is brutally realistic; the United States
cannot 'bring the Russian economy to its knees'. Once again, America's ridiculously-high
opinion of itself and its power fail to take account of consequences.
Oh, it could, I suppose, in a way. A way that would see the world's largest economy
– arguably, and certainly in its last days if it is actually still the world's largest
economy – wreck the global economy and its own trade relationship with the world in
order to damage Russia. Is it willing to go that far? You just never know, as decades of
feeding itself exceptionalism have addled its thinking.
Bershidsky points out – correctly, I think – that Russia has held off on
punishing American companies in Russia just as the USA has not dared to sanction the energy
industry in Russia. Neither wants to take that step, although one will certainly provoke the
other.
In fact, it occurs to me that if Russia were really as malignant and evil as Washington
pretends it is, Russia would be first to take that step, booting American companies out of
Russia, perhaps giving them 72 hours to clear out their desks and get out. What would happen
then? America would be bound to drop the sanctions hammer on oil and gas. And what would
happen then? Europe would say, it's been a lovely party, but I must be going. I give that an
8 of 10 chance of happening, and solely because of the stupid actions heretofore by the Trump
government. Had America been reasonable, it would have stood a chance of carrying Europe with
it to a war against Russia. But Trump and his blowhard bullying have hardened European
resolve against the USA.
This "Trump vs Davos globalists" theme is unconvincing. Trump actions
are ruthless globalist actions, who wnat to preverse the US status of
superpower at all costs, even by abrogating important treaties.
He might be not a neoliberal globalist thouth -- he does not offere equl
seats on the table to vassals.
Trumpo statement that if Germany buy Russian gas it does not need NATO
is very shroud indeed.
Notable quotes:
"... Optics are important and this image captures what both parties wanted to convey. This meeting is the beginning of a shift in the relationship between Germany and Russia for the better. ..."
"... The obvious answer is necessity brought about by pressure being placed on both countries by Donald Trump through sanctions and tariffs and their shared interests represented by the Nordstream 2 pipeline. ..."
"... But, this meeting went far deeper than that, especially since Merkel's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas boldly proclaimed that Europe needs an alternative to the SWIFT system of international electronic payments so as to keep global trade alive while the U.S. further weaponizes the U.S. dollar ..."
"... Why would Merkel allow Maas to state this publicly and why was it picked up by that establishment stenographer The Financial Times ? ..."
"... If Trump's goal, as presented by much of the European press (as presented here by Gilbert Doctorow), is to regain complete subjugation of Europe to American dominance, then this seems counter-productive. ..."
"... SWIFT is the main lever on which much of the U.S.'s sanctions power rests. Because it is through SWIFT that transactions can be tracked, payments halted and fines imposed. That none of this is strictly legal is irrelevant in the game of power-politics. ..."
"... This undermines the EU's credibility at a foundational level. It shows them to be the toothless and, in EU President Donald Tusk's case, witless when faced with opposition to their rule that isn't supported by The Davos Crowd, which Trump most definitely doesn't represent. ..."
"... And I've talked about these in the past. His real goal is the destruction of that post WWII institutional order which in his mind bankrupts the U.S. treasury through massive trade deficits. ..."
"... I said back in June that Trump's leaving the JCPOA was all part of his strategy to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Germany. The Davos Crowd needs that deal to keep the dream of transferring the power of the world back to Europe from the U.S. via cheap, Iranian energy and keep the conflict between Israel/Saudi Arabia and Iran front and center to foment global chaos awhile keeping Russia from getting rich again. ..."
"... It needs that to support the narrative we need NATO to protect us from the inevitable Russian attack after we provoke them into it. This keeps the money flowing through the banks and lobbyists while draining the U.S. dry through the military/industrial complex. ..."
"... And despite relentless Russia bashing since before Trump was elected, the American people overwhelmingly want peace with Russia, not war. ..."
"... By driving a wedge between Germany and the US over NATO and attacking the foundations of the German economy Trump is ensuring the current rapprochement between Germany and Russia? ..."
Vladimir Putin's charm tour of Germany and Austria last weekend is a significant sign of
change to come.
To the U.S. and European press Putin is only a step or two away from Hitler reincarnated
(thanks chiefly to Bill Browder). It serves the purpose of maintaining the post WWII
institutional order.
But, Putin is always nothing but relentlessly patient in his diplomatic efforts, even when
European leaders, like Merkel, treat him and Russia poorly. She is, after all, the leading
mouthpiece and political ally of The Davos Crowd that believes they run the world.
The conduct of his Foreign Ministry under Sergei Lavrov always strikes the perfect balance
between bluntness and diplo-speak.
So, color me surprised when I see the official photos of his meeting with Merkel carefully
framed to paint him in a positive light.
Putin in light blues and grays, Merkel in green, the fountain in the background, leaning in
looking directly at each other and a simple Sunday morning chat.
If I didn't know better I'd be expecting them to share photos of their grandkids, well,
Putin's grandkids anyway.
Optics are important and this image captures what both parties wanted to convey. This
meeting is the beginning of a shift in the relationship between Germany and Russia for the
better.
And the question is why?
The obvious answer is necessity brought about by pressure being placed on both countries by
Donald Trump through sanctions and tariffs and their shared interests represented by the
Nordstream 2 pipeline.
But, this meeting went far deeper than that, especially since Merkel's Foreign Minister
Heiko Maas boldly proclaimed that Europe needs an alternative to the SWIFT system of
international electronic payments so as to keep global trade alive while the U.S. further
weaponizes the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. just seized another $5 billion of Russian 'oligarch' money using Credit Suisse as
its enforcement arm.
SWIFT is the main lever on which much of the U.S.'s sanctions power rests. Because it is
through SWIFT that transactions can be tracked, payments halted and fines imposed. That none of
this is strictly legal is irrelevant in the game of power-politics.
Banks like Credit Suisse can't function without access to SWIFT.
So they will roll over to the pressure. That's why the response from EU leadership to
Trump's abandoning the JCPOA has been far more bark than bite. Because the measures implemented
to protect European businesses from U.S. retaliation against them hold no weight with the
companies staring at billions in losses.
Case in point: France's Total pulling out of a multi-billion exploration deal with Iran.
This undermines the EU's credibility at a foundational level. It shows them to be the
toothless and, in EU President Donald Tusk's case, witless when faced with opposition to their
rule that isn't supported by The Davos Crowd, which Trump most definitely doesn't
represent.
So, again, the question is why?
All of this seems incredibly contradictory, at times even to a jaded and cynical observer
like me. Until you step back for a second and think bigger picture and ask the most important
question of all.
What are Trump's real goals?
It's Good to Have Goals
And I've talked about these in the past. His real goal is the destruction of that post WWII
institutional order which in his mind bankrupts the U.S. treasury through massive trade
deficits.
And in a word that means . NATO.
Trump goal is the dissolution of NATO. He wants it dismantled because it is a massive drain
on our capital base. Building weapons and maintaining bases in Europe is expensive and that
money is needed here. He knows this.
Even the mere hint of this has The Davos Crowd in apoplexy. Hence, the post-Helsinki freak
out. Hence, the drive to impeach him over Stormy Freaking Daniels. It's pathetic.
I said back in June that Trump's leaving the JCPOA was all part of his strategy to drive a
wedge between the U.S. and Germany. The Davos Crowd needs that deal to keep the dream of transferring the power of the world
back to Europe from the U.S. via cheap, Iranian energy and keep the conflict between
Israel/Saudi Arabia and Iran front and center to foment global chaos awhile keeping Russia from
getting rich again.
It needs that to support the narrative we need NATO to protect us from the inevitable
Russian attack after we provoke them into it. This keeps the money flowing through the banks
and lobbyists while draining the U.S. dry through the military/industrial complex.
The problem is that that narrative is garbage. And despite relentless Russia bashing since
before Trump was elected, the American people overwhelmingly want peace with Russia, not
war.
Poland and the Baltics sound like Democrats unhinged hysterical children over the 'threat of
Russian aggression.'
This is why Trump is also pressuring Turkey at the same time. He knows Europe is vulnerable
to Turkey's implosion. Turkey and Germany are major trading partners and the vast bulk of
Turkey's foreign currency exposure is owned by European banks, making them, as
I've said previously, Ground Zero for the debt bomb.
So the final question then is this.
Has this been Trump's goal the entire time? Is this what Trump and Putin discussed behind
closed doors in Helsinki?
The NATO Wedge
By driving a wedge between Germany and the US over NATO and attacking the foundations of
the German economy Trump is ensuring the current rapprochement between Germany and Russia?
Merkel, for her part, has been so terminally weakened by her immigration policy and
strong-armed approach to dissent that this whirlwind weekender by Putin was as much for her
benefit, politically, as his.
The implication being that if Merkel wants to stay in power with her weakening coalition and
poll numbers it's time for her to reverse course. And if that means cozying up to Russia then
so be it.
Merkel will continue to talk a good game about Crimea and Ukraine while Putin will speak
directly to the German people about ending the humanitarian crisis in Syria as a proxy for
ending the threat of further immigration.
This outflanks Merkel's position and undermines George Soros' goals of the cultural
destruction of Europe. At this point, politically, how can Merkel even argue against that
without betraying her true loyalties?
And that's what makes the implications of this Summit-That-Wasn't so interesting.
If this is indeed the case then the future of the world rests on the mid-term elections and
whether Trump is not indicted for having sex with a couple of porn stars.
I almost feel dirty writing that.
* * *
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"... Meanwhile, what is surely the single most urgent issue for both sides was not mentioned at all in their opening statements: namely how to respond to US President Donald Trump's new sanctions on Russia and on participants in the Nord Stream II gas pipeline project that both countries support. ..."
"... The Washington Post ..."
"... The New York Times ..."
"... The Washington Post ..."
"... New York Times' ..."
"... I close out this little survey of English-speaking media by pointing to an article in The Guardian ..."
"... Both Merkel and Putin are now facing the same challenge: US foreign policy has become unpredictable, both for its allies and for rivals like Moscow. Notwithstanding the warm discussions Donald Trump had with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, the American administration has just announced a new wave of sanctions on Russia relating to the Skripal affair. ..."
"... La Libre Belgique ..."
"... "Germany is not the only 'Western' nation to return to the Kremlin. Putin is taking full advantage of the boomerang effect caused by the policies of Donald Trump, who, by hammering away at his customary allies is pushing them to other interlocutors. By looking for confrontations, imposing taxes and sanctions while thinking that this rampant isolationism will make the United States 'great again,' Trump is helping to build a wall that he no doubt did not imagine, that of the anti-Trump people." ..."
"... Frankfurter Allgemeine ..."
"... Putin is under economic pressure to find closer ties with Europe. In Austria, which now chairs the European Council, he has allies in the government, namely the extreme right populists of the Freedom Party which installed Kneissl. But the way to Europe passes by way of Merkel and Putin knows that. ..."
"... Vremya Pokazhet ..."
"... Frankfurter Allgemeine ..."
"... In my view, Trump's use of sanctions and tariffs here, there, everywhere has a totally different logic from what is adduced in the writings of my peers in the analyst community. He invokes them because 1. they are within his sole power as Chief Executive and 2. they are in principle as American as apple pie and do not require grand explanations in Congress or before the public. As to why he invokes them, there you have to look at Trump's foreign policy from a 360 degree perspective and not merely as it relates to Putin or to Erdogan or to any of the small slices we see discussed in the news. ..."
"... When viewed in the round, it is obvious that Trump is reshuffling the deck. He is doing what he can to break up NATO and the other military alliances around the world which are consuming more than half of the U.S. defense budget and do not arguably provide greater security to the American homeland than the country can do for itself without fixed alliances and overseas bases. ..."
"... By contrast, what Trump is now doing is not a blunder or a bit of bluster. Even if he is not conversant with the whole of the Realist School of international relations, as surely he is not, he does grasp the fundamentals, namely the centrality of the sovereign nation-state and of the balance of power mechanism by which these states are constantly changing alignments of these nation-states to ensure no one enjoys hegemony . ..."
"... Accordingly, I insist that the possible rapprochement of Russia and Germany will be in line with Trump's reshuffling of the deck not in spite of it. ..."
Reading the tea leaves of the Putin-Merkel meeting
During this past Saturday, 18 August, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a brief visit to
Austria to attend the wedding of the country's Minister of Foreign Affairs Karin Kneissl. Per
the Kremlin, this stop of several hours in the Styrian wine country not far from the border
with Slovenia was a "purely private" side excursion "on the road to Germany" for the state
visit with Chancellor Angela Merkel starting later in the day at the Meseberg Palace, the
federal guest house 60 km north of Berlin.
Journalists were admitted to film the wedding party, including Putin's dance with the 53
year old bride. No questions were taken and no statements were issued by the President's Press
Secretary, who also was present. We know only that on the return journey to Graz airport, Putin
was accompanied by Austria's Chancellor Sebastian Kurz. Presumably they had some issues to
discuss that may be characterized as official talks.
Prior to their meeting both Putin and Angela Merkel made statements to the press listing the
topics they intended to discuss. We may assume that these lists were not exhaustive. Comparing
their lists, we find that the respective priorities of the parties were in inverted order, with
economic cooperation at the head of Putin's list while regulating the Donbass crisis in Ukraine
was the top concern of Merkel. Moreover, the content of issues bearing the same heading was
very different. Both sides spoke of Syria, but whereas for Putin the issue for discussion is
the humanitarian crisis of refugees, ensuring their return to their homes from camps in
Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey by raising funds to repair and replace fundamental infrastructure
destroyed in the war. For Merkel, the number one issue in Syria is to prevent the
Russian-backed Syrian armed forces from creating a new humanitarian disaster by their ongoing
campaign to retake Idlib province from the militants opposed to Bashar Assad.
Meanwhile, what is surely the single most urgent issue for both sides was not mentioned at
all in their opening statements: namely how to respond to US President Donald Trump's new
sanctions on Russia and on participants in the Nord Stream II gas pipeline project that both
countries support.
As was explained at the outset, there was to be no press conference or joint statement
issued at the conclusion of the talks. The only information we have is that Merkel and Putin
conferred for more than three hours, which is in itself quite extraordinary and suggests that
some understandings may have been achieved.
In a word, the potentially very important diplomatic developments of Saturday remain, for
once, a state secret of the parties, with no leaks for the press to parse. And yet there is
material here worthy of our consideration. I have in mind the interpretations of what might
transpire before, during and after the events of Saturday in the news and commentary reportage
of various countries having greater or lesser interest in Russian affairs. Indeed, my perusal
of French, Belgian, German, British, American and Russian news media shows great diversity of
opinion and some penetrating and highly pertinent remarks based on different information bases.
This material is all essential if we are to make sense of the behavior of the parties on the
international stage in the coming weeks.
In this essay, I will set out what I have found per country, starting with the least
attentive to detail - the United States - and ending with those who offered the best informed
and most interested reportage, Germany and Russia. I will conclude with my own reading of the
tea leaves.
* * * *
Let us take The Washington Post and The New York Times as our markers for
how US mainstream media reported on Putin's meetings this past Saturday.
On the 18th, The Washington Post carried in its online edition two articles dealing
with the Putin diplomatic doings. "At Austrian foreign minister's wedding, Putin brings the
music, the flowers and the controversy" was written by the newspaper's bureau chief in Berlin,
Griff Witte. It is accompanied by video clips of Vladimir Putin dancing with the bride and
speaking, in German, to the wedding party seated at their banquet table. The journalist touches
very briefly on the main political dimensions of Putin's visit to Austria, including the party
relations between United Russia and the far right Freedom Party in Austria's ruling coalition
which nominated Kneissl for her post, the criticism of Putin's participation in the wedding
coming from the Opposition parties in Austria who see it as a violation of the government's own
ambition to be a neutral bridge between East and West, and the issue of Putin's sowing division
on the continent. The only criticism one might offer is that the article is superficial, that
each of the issues raised deserves in-depth analysis separately.
The newspaper's second article online, which spread its net more broadly and covered the
meeting with Merkel in Germany as well as the visit in Austria, came from an Associated Press
reporter, not its own staff. Here again, the problem is that issues surrounding the meetings
are not more than bullet points, and the reader is given no basis for reaching an independent
finding on what has happened..
The New York Times' feature article "Merkel and Putin Sound Pragmatic Notes After
Years of Tension," also published on the 18th and datelined Berlin was cited by Russian
television news for a seemingly positive valuation of the talks in Meseberg Palace. However,
the content of the article by reporter Melissa Eddy is more cautious, highlighting the pattern
of "conflicts and reconciliations" that have marked German-Russian relations over the centuries
and seeing the present stage not as a warming of relations but instead as reaching for
compromises "on Syria, energy and other key issues while maintaining their differences over
Russia's role in the conflict in Ukraine." She sees the Syrian issue as one where German and
Russian interests may be closest given that refugees from the Middle East are now a German
preoccupation with political weight. The reporter cites several experts attached to well-known
institutes in Germany that are generally skeptical about Russia's intentions. But the end
result is better informed than most NYT reporting on Russia even if it leaves us
wondering what will result from the Saturday diplomacy.
In both mainstream papers there is no attempt to find a link between Putin's two visits on
Saturday.
I close out this little survey of English-speaking media by pointing
to an article in
The Guardian from the 18th entitled "Putin urges Europe to help
rebuild Syria so refugees can return." This piece comes from the Agence France-Presse in Berlin. It is not much
more than a recitation of the lists of topics for discussion that Putin and Merkel issued
before their talks. But the reporter has made his choice for the most important of them, Syria
and refugees.
The French-language press does not seem to have been very interested in Putin's "private"
trip to the wedding of the Austrian foreign minister, but was definitely keen to discuss
Putin's trip to Berlin. On the day preceding the Putin-Merkel meeting, the French press offered
a clear concept of where things were headed. We read in Figaro , "Merkel receives
Putin Saturday to renew a difficult dialogue." A caption in bold just below is more
eye-catching: "While the German Chancellor has become the main opponent to the Russian
President within the EU, the policy of sanctions conducted by Washington has led to a
rapprochement between Berlin and Moscow with regard to numerous issues."
The reporter notes that following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, relations
between the two heads of state had become quite bad and in four years they met only when
obliged to do so during international summits.
"But starting three months ago, their diplomatic exchanges have intensified: in May Angela
Merkel met the chief of the Kremlin in Sochi, Russia. In July, she met the head of the Russian
diplomatic corps, Sergei Lavrov, in Berlin. By inviting Vladimir Putin this time, the German
Chancellor has promised 'in-depth discussions.' "She is pursuing a pragmatic attempt at
normalization of German-Russian relations, because the international realities have changed,'
explains Stefan Meister, director of the Robert Bosch Center for Russia."
And how has the calculus of international relations changed? Both Merkel and Putin are now
facing the same challenge: US foreign policy has become unpredictable, both for its allies and
for rivals like Moscow. Notwithstanding the warm discussions Donald Trump had with Vladimir
Putin in Helsinki, the American administration has just announced a new wave of sanctions on
Russia relating to the Skripal affair.
"The American policy represents a danger for the Russian economy and a threat to German
interests."
A spokesperson from Merkel's CDU party responsible for foreign policy is quoted on the
possible dangers of secondary sanctions being directed at Germany through the application of US
extraterritoriality against those failing to respect the new sanctions on Russia.
The article explains the issues surrounding the Nord Steam 2 pipeline, and in particular
Trump's hostility to the project for its locking in German dependence on Russian
hydrocarbons.
And the author points to the common interests of Germany and Russia over maintenance of the
Iranian nuclear deal as a factor powering the rapprochement of the two countries. Here again
the common threat is Donald Trump and American sanctions against those companies which continue
to trade with Iran.
The article concludes that divergent views of Russia and Germany over Ukraine and Syria
exclude any breakthrough at the meeting on Saturday. But nonetheless the dialogue that was
lacking these several past years is being recreated.
In its weekend edition issued on 18 August, the Belgian mainstream daily La Libre
Belgique was even more insistent on interpreting the Merkel-Putin meeting as a consequence
of the policies of Donald Trump. Their editorial captures the sense very nicely in its
tongue-in-cheek headline: "Trump is the best 'ally' of Putin."
La Libre sees Vladimir Putin's latest diplomatic initiatives as directly resulting
from the way his host at the White House has annoyed everyone. Moreover, his outreach is
welcomed:
"Germany is not the only 'Western' nation to return to the Kremlin. Putin is taking full
advantage of the boomerang effect caused by the policies of Donald Trump, who, by hammering
away at his customary allies is pushing them to other interlocutors. By looking for
confrontations, imposing taxes and sanctions while thinking that this rampant isolationism
will make the United States 'great again,' Trump is helping to build a wall that he no doubt
did not imagine, that of the anti-Trump people."
The editors point to Turkish President Erdogan's clear signal that he is now
looking for other allies. He has done his calculations and has said he has more to gain with
Moscow than with Washington.'
The editorial concludes that a summit on reconstruction of Syria might even take place at
the start of September between Moscow, Ankara, Paris and Berlin. The conclusion? "Putin has
taken center stage on the chessboard. Thank you, Mr. Trump."
The article filed by La Libre 's correspondent in Berlin, Sebastien Millard, bears
a heading that matches the editorial view of the newspaper: "Merkel and Putin - allies of
convenience facing Trump." The author credits Donald Trump with being the catalyst for the
resumption of dialogue between Germany and Russia; they are telling Washington that they do not
accept its blackmail. He notes that we should not expect any reversal of alliances. There are
too many differences of view between Berlin and Moscow on a variety of issues.
* * * *
The German press paid a good deal of attention to Vladimir Putin's visit to Austria for the
wedding of Foreign Minister Karin Kreissl.
In an article posted on the 16th entitled "Suspicion that Austria is a Trojan horse,"
Die Welt highlighted the negatives of Putin's presence. Quoting an "expert from the
University of Innsbruck" this does not cast a good light on the country. They anticipate
political fall-out. This will impair Austria's ability as chair of the European Council to play
a role of intermediary in the Ukraine conflict. The only beneficiary of the visit will be the
the Russia-friendly be the Russia-friendly Freedom Party. For Putin, being a guest provides him
with the opportunity to demonstrate that he is not isolated but is instead highly welcome in
society of an EU country.
As for the coming meeting with Merkel on Saturday evening, Die Welt in a related
article of the same day lists the issues for discussion. Without taking a position, it cites
experts for and against the Nord Stream II pipeline and other issues on the list.
Welt's report from the wedding party on the 18th was gossipy and unfriendly, comparing it to
a wedding of some European royal family because of the extraordinary guest list that included
the country's chancellor, vice chancellor, and defense minister as well as the head of OPEC
and...Vladimir Putin. With typical German petty financial accounting, they reckon that the 500
police and other security measures needed for the safety of the highly placed guests cost the
Austrian tax payers 250,000 euros.
A separate article in Die Welt deals with Putin's meeting with Merkel at the
Meseberg Palace. The emphasis here is on Merkel's remarks during the Statement prior to the
talks that cooperation with Russia is "vital" to deal with many conflicts globally and that
both sides bear responsibility to find solutions.
The article quotes from the opening statements of the leaders on all the issues in their
list for discussion - Syria, Ukraine, Nord Stream II. We are given bare facts without any
analysis to speak of.
The other major mainstream daily Frankfurter Allgemeine in its Saturday, 18 August
edition offered separate articles on Putin's visits to Austria and Germany.
The article on Karin Kneissl's wedding heads off in a very different direction from the
reporting in other media that I have summarized above. FAZ notes that Kneissl is
rarely in the headlines and it asks: who is she? They answer the question with some curious
details. We learn that Kneissl was once active in competitive sports and even now swims a
kilometer every day. For many years she has lived on a small farmstead with a couple of boxers,
two ponies, hens and cats. Each morning her chauffeur takes her and the dogs to her office in
Vienna, to return in the evening. Regrettably, FAZ does not take this curious
biographical sketch further. No connection is drawn between her personality and the Russian
President's acceptance of her invitation to her wedding.
FAZ similarly has chosen to amuse rather than inform in its coverage of the meeting
in Berlin entitled "Sparkling wine in Austria, sparkling water in Meseberg." They comment on
how Putin arrived half an hour late, on how it is hard to see how the meeting could be
characterized as a success. They stress that we know nothing about the content of the
consultations. Then they tick off the opening positions of the sides as set out in their
statements before the talks.
Spiegel online risks more by giving more interpretation and less bare facts. Its
article entitled "Something of a new start" suggests that a rapprochement is underway and that
both Merkel and Putin have a lot in play. Unlike the other German press we have mentioned,
Spiegel sees a direct link between Putin's attending the wedding in Styria and his visit to
Merkel.
Putin is under economic pressure to find closer ties with Europe. In Austria, which now
chairs the European Council, he has allies in the government, namely the extreme right
populists of the Freedom Party which installed Kneissl. But the way to Europe passes by way of
Merkel and Putin knows that.
Meanwhile, says Spiegel , Germany also is interested in improving relations with
Russia despite all the controversy, namely due to the growing conflicts with US President
Donald Trump. We don't know the exact content of the talks which were confidential, but there
is some movement now between Germany and Russia.
Spiegel remains cautious. Cordiality does not enter into the relationship. The
parties keep their distance. There is no laughter to lighten the atmosphere. Yet, it concludes:
"The talks have prospects and we can see the wish to make progress through common positions,
and without being silent about contradictions. Diplomatic normality, as it were. A step
forward."
* * * *
If the great bulk of commentary in the West about Putin's diplomatic weekend was reserved
and stayed by the bare facts without speculation, Russian television more than made up for
dryness. I point in particular to two political talk shows which invited a mixture of experts
from different backgrounds.
Let us begin with the show Vremya Pokazhet (Time will tell) on
state television's Pervy Kanal . Their Friday, 17 August program focused on Putin's
forthcoming visit to the wedding 'on the road to Berlin,' which several panelists saw as a
strong signal to Germany that Russ1+
ia had other channels to the EU if Germany refuses to be its intercessor.
The visit was said to be breaking new ground in diplomatic practice. According to panelist
Andrei Baklanov, deputy chair of the association of Russian diplomats, this kind of positive,
human diplomacy is Russia's answer to the negative behavior in international affairs that has
occupied center stage in the recent past - sanctions, fake news, etc. As another panelist
interjected, this is the first time that a Russian head of state attended a wedding abroad
since Tsar Nicholas did so in Germany in 1913.
Baklanov proceeded to provide details about the bride, however, bringing out aspects of her
career that are far more relevant to her attracting the attention of Putin than the
Frankfurter Allgemeine produced. We learn that she grew up in Amman, Jordan, that she
speaks 8 languages: Arabic, Hebrew, Magyar, French, Spanish, Italian, English as well as her
native German. She studied Near Eastern languages in Vienna University, in the Jewish
University of Jerusalem, in the University of Jordan and also graduated from the National
School of Administration in France. She holds a doctorate in law. She is a non-party minister,
which also attests to her generally recognized professionalism. For all of these reasons, she
is a good fit with Putin's determination to find supporters in Europe for investments to
restore Syrian infrastructure and enable the return of refugees.
Sergey Mironov, leader of the socialist party Fair Russia said that despite Merkel's warning
in advance not to expect breakthroughs it is likely progress was made in agreeing how to deal
with US sanctions. This would be tested in the coming days.
As for the link between the visits to Austria and Germany, the representative of a
pro-business party Sergey Stankevich reminded viewers that Germany and Austria are the market
makers in Europe for Russian gas. Nord Stream II gas may land in Germany but a large part of it
will be pumped further to Austria's hub for distribution elsewhere in Europe. Whatever may have
been said publicly, Stankevich believes that Merkel and Putin did agree on many if not all the
subjects named before the start: Iran, Syria, Ukraine, Nord Stream.
Russian media coverage of the Saturday travels of their President continued on Russian news
programs into Monday, with video clips of Putin dancing at the wedding and speaking alongside
Merkel before entering into their talks at Meseberg Palace.
* * * *
Looking back at the media coverage of Putin's visits to Austria and Germany on 18 August,
and with all due respect to those who opinions are different from mine, I find that the most
helpful for our understanding of the present day international situation were the report and
editorial in Belgium's Libre Belgique and the unruly, risky but at times brilliant
insights on Russian television.
What comes out of this is the understanding that the visits to a wedding in Austria and to
the federal Chancellor outside Berlin were directly linked in Russian diplomatic strategy, that
Russia is playing the Austrian card during the country's six months at the helm of the European
Council in Brussels, that Russia is pushing for a multi-party relief effort for Syria to
facilitate the return of refugees to their home and pacification of the war-torn country. The
web of common interests that Russia is pursuing has at its core the fragility of the current
world order and generalized anxiety of leading countries due to America's aggressive pursuit of
narrow national interest under Donald Trump as seen in his tariff wars and sanctions directed
at friends and foes alike.
Where I differ from the interpretations set out in the foregoing press reports is in my
understanding of what Trump is doing and why.
The nearly universal assumption of commentators is that Trump's policies known as "Make
America Great" are ignorant and doomed to fail. They are assumed to be isolationist,
withdrawing America from the world community.
However, Trump did not invent bullying of US allies. That was going strong under George W.
Bush, with his challenge "you are either with us or against us" when he sought to align the
West behind his invasion of Iraq in 2003 without authorization of the UN Security Council. His
more urbane successor Barack Obama was no kinder to U.S. allies, who were slapped with crushing
fines for violations of U.S. sanctions on Iran, just to mention one way in which they were kept
in line. And the U.S. Congress today is no more reasonable and diplomatic than the President in
the brutal unilateral sanctions it has on its own initiative advocated against not just Russia
but also against Turkey and other states which are not snapping to attention with respect to
purchases of military materiel from Russia.
What made U.S. bullying tolerable before Trump was the ideological smokescreen of "shared
values," namely democracy promotion, human rights and rule of law, that all members of the
alliances could swear to and which set them apart from the still unenlightened parts of the
globe where autocrats hold sway.
In my view, Trump's use of sanctions and tariffs here, there, everywhere has a totally
different logic from what is adduced in the writings of my peers in the analyst community. He
invokes them because 1. they are within his sole power as Chief Executive and 2. they are in
principle as American as apple pie and do not require grand explanations in Congress or before
the public. As to why he invokes them, there you have to look at Trump's foreign policy from a
360 degree perspective and not merely as it relates to Putin or to Erdogan or to any of the
small slices we see discussed in the news.
When viewed in the round, it is obvious that Trump is reshuffling the deck. He is doing what
he can to break up NATO and the other military alliances around the world which are consuming
more than half of the U.S. defense budget and do not arguably provide greater security to the
American homeland than the country can do for itself without fixed alliances and overseas
bases.
The first two presidencies of this millennium undid the country's greatest geopolitical
achievement of the second half of the 20th century: the informal alliance with China against
Russia that put Washington at the center of all global politics. Bush and Obama did that by
inattention and incomprehension of what was at stake. That inattention was an expression of
American hubris in the unipolar world which, it was assumed, was the new normal, not a
blip.
By contrast, what Trump is now doing is not a blunder or a bit of bluster. Even if he is not
conversant with the whole of the Realist School of international relations, as surely he is
not, he does grasp the fundamentals, namely the centrality of the sovereign nation-state and of
the balance of power mechanism by which these states are constantly changing alignments of
these nation-states to ensure no one enjoys hegemony . We see this understanding when he speaks
about looking out for American interests while the heads of state whom he meets are looking out
for the interests of theirs.
In his tweets we find that our allies are ripping us off, that
they are unfair competitors. His most admiring remark about Russia is that it is a strong
competitor. The consistent element in Trump's thinking is ignored or willfully misunderstood in
the press.
Accordingly, I insist that the possible rapprochement of Russia and Germany will be in line
with Trump's reshuffling of the deck not in spite of it.
Good Optics · about 3 hours ago
This nuanced analysis rings true and speaks to the fact that -
though Trump may not exactly be playing 47D chess - he certainly
does have some good intentions that, left to follow their course,
would have a chance of making the world a better place. But that
will not be allowed to happen by those in the US with firm
commitments to pursue the world's subjugation through any means
possible.
The Cs did tell us that Trump's heart is in the right place, unlikely
though that does appear a lot of the time . . .
Gazprom leads the world in capital expenditure (capex) on global energy projects, by a
wide, wide margin – $160 Billion to be spent on 84 projects worldwide, including Nord
Stream II and Turkish Stream. That's nearly double the spending of its next-closest
competitor, Sinopec, at $87 Billion. Royal Dutch Shell is third, and Exxon a distant
fourth.
If you add Rosneft, that's another $50 Billion in capex for Russia. Odd behaviour for an
isolated country whose economy is in tatters. One whose government debt is 12.6 % of GDP and
declining.
Speaking of government debt, how's that parameter looking for The Exceptional Nation?
Whoa: that's exceptional. Not even much point in expressing it as a percentage of GDP, I
guess.
Just to drive the point home for any who might not have gotten it, Russia –
friendless, alone against the world, and reeling from the bite of American sanctions –
is outspending the USA nearly three to one on global energy investments, although its debt is
a tiny fraction of America's out-of-control spending on other important things, like its
bloated defense budget.
Oh, that's right – Vladimir Putin is a tyrant and a dictator, squeezing the country
dry in neverending pursuit of self-enrichment. I almost forgot.
"Russian influence will flow through that pipeline right into Europe, and that is what we
are going to prevent," an unnamed U.S. official told the
Wall Street Journal just as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chancellor Angela
Merkel meet outside of Berlin on Saturday centered on the two countries moving forward with the
controversial Russian-German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, but also involving issues from the
Iran nuclear deal to ending the war in Syria.
Intense pressure from Washington is overshadowing the project, construction of which is
already in advanced stages, as
the WSJ cites current and former US officials who say sanctions are under discussion and
could be mobilized in a mere matter of weeks .
These potential sanctions, ostensibly being discussed in response to US intelligence claims
of Russian interference in the 2016 election, could target companies and financial firms
involved in the massive pipeline's construction . This comes after comments from President
Trump at the opening of a NATO summit in July made things uncomfortable for his German
counterpart when he said that Germany is so dependent on Russia for energy that it's
essentially being "held captive" by Vladimir Putin and his government.
"Germany is captive of Russia because it is getting so much of its energy from Russia. They
pay billions of dollars to Russia and we have to defend them against Russia,"
Trump told NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg at a televised opening breakfast.
The pipeline has been opposed by multiple US administrations, who have long accuse the
Kremlin of seeking to accrue political leverage over Europe given the latter's already high
dependence on Russian natural gas. The pipeline has been a frequent talking point and target of
attacks by Trump,
who has threatened to escalate the trade war against Germany going back months if it
supported the construction of the pipeline. US officials have also expressed concern that
Russia will pull pack significantly from delivering natural gas via Ukraine when its Gazprom
tranit contract expires by the close of 2019. Ukraine is currently the chief Russian
natural-gas export point to the EU and depends heavily on levying fees on this trade.
Both Russia and Germany have sought to calm US concerns over the Ukraine issue, with Putin
himself reportedly telling both Merkel and Trump that he is "ready to preserve" gas transit
through Ukraine even after Nord Stream 2 was completed.
US officials speaking to the WSJ , however, downplayed the Ukraine issue, instead focusing
on the urgency of allowing such significant and irreversible Russian economic, political, and
infrastructural inroads into the heart of Europe .
Richard Grenell, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, told the
WSJ , "We have been clear that firms working in the Russian energy export-pipeline sector
are engaging in a line of business that carries sanctions risk," -- something which he's
repeatedly emphasized with officials in Berlin. President Trump himself has also reportedly
raised the issue directly with Chancellor Merkel on multiple occasions. But for all the shrill
US media claims that Trump is somehow doing Putin's bidding, the WSJ
has this illuminating line : "Officially, the European Commission, the EU's executive body,
is coordinating the gas-transit talks, but Ms. Merkel also has played a leading role because of
her regular contacts and longstanding relationship with Mr. Putin, European officials say
."
Meanwhile, it appears that Washington has a losing hand even while making threats of
sanctions in an attempt to block the pipeline project.
A European energy executive familiar with the discussions said company representatives had
told John McCarrick, deputy assistant secretary in the State Department's Bureau of Energy
Resources, that the five European companies and Gazprom had already provided €5.5
billion ($6.3 billion) in financing and that the project wouldn't be stopped even if the U.S.
were to impose sanctions .
The Nord Stream 2 project was started in 2015 and is a major joint venture between Russia's
Gazprom and European partners, including German Uniper, Austria's OMV, France's Engie,
Wintershall and the British-Dutch multinational Royal Dutch Shell.
The pipeline is set to run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea - doubling the
existing pipeline's capacity of 55 cubic meters per year, and is therefore critical for
Europe's future energy needs.
Currently, the second phase involves utilizing an existing pipeline already channelling
smaller amount of gas from Russia to Germany. Construction for the second phase started in May
of this year.
With much joviality and humour, Ukraine prepares to sever all remaining public-transit links
with Russia. I suppose there are still roads, and if you have a car and can afford gas, you
can still drive there.
This, according to the transport minister, is 'like the good old days'. I'll tell you
something else that's like the good old days, Mr. Minister – the living wage in
Ukraine.
And yet Ukraine still seems to think Europe must force Russia to continue transiting
Russian gas through Ukraine, and paying Kuh-yiv for the privilege.
It took more than 20 years for littoral states of the Caspian Sea to reach an agreement that
would lay the legal foundations for the full utilization of the region's resources. The Fifth
Caspian Summit in Aktau, Kazakhstan, brought the long-sought breakthrough after leaders of
Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Iran signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea
– a remarkable feat considering that heretofore, barring bilateral deals, the Caspian has
been governed by an obsolete 1940 convention between the Soviet Union (of which four current
littoral states were a part) and Iran.
As the current Convention incorporates a plethora of tradeoffs between countries, let's look
at them in greater detail so as to grasp the implications of the deal.
The Convention stipulates that relations between littoral states shall be based on
principles of national sovereignty, territorial integrity, equality among members, non-use of
threat of force (it was only 17 years ago that Azerbaijan and Iran almost started a full-blown
naval war over contested fields) and non-intervention.
The military-related clauses of the document can be considered a net diplomatic success for
the Russian Federation as it prohibits the physical presence of any third-party armed forces,
along with banning the provision of a member state's territory to acts of aggression against
any other littoral state. Since Russia is by far the most power nation in terms of both general
military clout and military presence around the Caspian, this will placate Russian fears about
any potential US (or other) encroachment in the area.
Then there's energy... Although the Convention establishes a general legal framework for
territorial disputes to be solved, it refrains from any particularities. Therefore prolonged
negotiations are to be expected with regard to many disputed oilfields, stemming predominantly
from Irani and Azerbaijani claims . Iran advocated throughout the entire negotiation process an
egalitarian approach to delimiting the seabed (each nation would get 20% of the coast), running
counter the other countries' aspirations. The things is that when Russia concluded its seabed
delimitation agreements with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in 2001 and 2003, respectively, the
parties split their parts using the median line. Point 8.1. effectively keeps the delimitation
task in the hands of relevant governments, thereby providing a very modest boost to the
demarcation of the Southern Caspian (the Northern part is fully delimited).
There are two main territorial conflicts to be settled – the Irani-Azerbaijani and the
Azerbaijani-Turkmen disputes. The row between Baku and Teheran revolves around the
Araz-Alov-Sharg field (discovered in 1985-1987 by Soviet geologists), the reserves of which are
estimated at 300 million tons of oil and 395 BCm of natural gas. Even though the field is only
90 kilometers away from Baku and should seemingly be under Azerbaijan's grip, if one is to draw
a straight line from the Azerbaijani-Irani border most of the field ought to be allotted to
Iran (the median would keep most of it in Azerbaijan). As those old enough to remember the 2001
naval ship hostilities would attest, it does matter at what angle the final line is drawn.
The Serdar/Kapaz field (estimated to contain 50 million tons of oil) is the bone of
contention between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Considered to be an extension of Azerbaijan's
main oil-producing unit, the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field, Baku sees it as an indispensable
element in its quest to mitigate decreasing oil output numbers. Geographically, Serdar/Kapaz is
closer to Turkmenistan, yet here too Azerbaijan might come out the ultimate winner. The
Apsheron peninsula stretches out some 60km into the Caspian Sea, in effect extending
Azerbaijan's geographical reach. Absent previous demarcation agreements between Baku and
Ashgabat, the settlement will once again boil down to getting the angles right, as in the case
of Araz-Alov-Sharg. However, it must be said that a resolution might come about as a by-product
of new gas endeavors.
Clause 14, dealing with laying subsea pipelines and cables, is the one most coveted by
energy analysts , since it has the potential to significantly alter Europe's gas supply
options.
According to point 14.2., all parties have the right to construct subsea pipelines given
that they comply with environmental standards (which are particularly strict in the Caspian
Sea). With no further caveat included, some analysts might be tempted to think that Russia will
inevitably use the "environmental protection" card when trying to stop the construction of the
Trans-Caspian pipeline (TCP) from Turkmenistan, a pipeline it spent many years to halt .
Under current circumstances, when US-Russian relations falling ever deeper into an
insurmountable ditch, Moscow's decision to allow for the construction of the mightily
Washington-backed TCP to take place might be perceived as a massive omission.
Since the Turkmen gas is unlikely to find demand in Azerbaijan or Turkey, it would need to
take the whole route via the South Caucasus Pipeline, TANAP and TAP. Merely the transportation
tariffs from these pipelines would render any transportation economically unviable unless
European gas prices rise substantially to levels above $300/MCm. Moreover, the estimated cost
of building the subsea TCP of $2 billion is a disabling burden for either Türkmengaz or
SOCAR. Thus, allowing the construction of Trans Caspian gas pipelines might be a brilliant ruse
from the Russians – cognizant of all the deficiencies above, they can wield it as a sign
of good will in their never-ending negotiations with the European the economics for supplying
gas to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor are far from being Union.
This being said, there are natural impediments to see the TCP implemented anytime soon.
Azerbaijan might be interested in getting transit fees for Turkmen natural gas, yet it lacks
the required infrastructure to include the above volumes in its traditional conduit via
Turkey.
All in all, the Caspian convention is a good basis for further negotiations, even though it
falls short of being an all-encompassing legal framework. Territorial disputes will most likely
remain frozen for quite some time and no new gas pipeline projects will see the light of day
unless market conditions change.
Patient Observer says:
August 6, 2018 at 1:46 pmPublic opinion polling suggests that many Americans would
not think twice if there were a great many casualties against evildoers. For example, a
2017 survey found that 60 percent of Americans would support a nuclear attack on Iran that
would kill 20 million civilians, to prevent an invasion that might kill 20,000 American
soldiers.
"We were not surprised by the finding that most Americans place a higher
value on the life of an American soldier than the life of a foreign noncombatant.
What was surprising, however, was the radical extent of that preference.
Our experiments suggest that the majority of Americans find a 1:100 risk ratio
to be morally acceptable. They were willing to kill 2 million Iranian civilians to
save 20,000 U.S. soldiers. One respondent who approved of the conventional
air strike that killed 100,000 Iranian civilians candidly expressed even more
extreme
preferences regarding proportionality and risk ratios, while displacing
U.S. responsibility for the attack onto the Iranian people: "I would sacrifice
1 million enemies versus 1 of our military. Their choice, their death."
But the state of American 'journalism' is such that the media must portray America as
winning, and will not acknowledge catastrophe until major damage has already been done, because
it is patriotic to report on American success.
FYI Officials from three leading US groups that support increased exports of US LNG separately
addressed concerns on Aug. 3 over the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's announcement that
tariffs ranging 5-25% will be imposed on US LNG.
"China's retaliation will hit America's energy industry particularly hard," said
American Petroleum Institute Vice-Pres. for Regulatory and Economic Policy Kyle Isakower.
"American oil and gas already hit by US tariffs on industrial products and specialty steel
essential to our industry will now be faced with Chinese tariffs on critical US exports,
affecting American jobs that rely directly and indirectly on the energy industry."
August 5, 2018 at 7:17 pm Oh, look; Ukraine already is down to about half the gas in
storage that it will need for winter. Turning to the west certainly made it
'energy-independent' at least to the extent that the west must 'lend' it money to buy gas which
is reverse-flowed from eastern-European countries so that all the Russian is squeezed out of
it, and it becomes European freedom gas. Nice work if you can get it, and since Ukraine will
not be able to pay it back, it becomes a gift! Why worry, as long as Uncle Sugar is paying the
bills?
Speaking of gas, once-bitten-twice-shy Bulgaria is eager to get a piece of the action,
signifying up front its willingness to tap into Turkish Stream for transit to Europe.
There seems to be a tremendously broad American – and western – assumption that
US production is going to 'soar' and continue to ramp ever upward. Is it? Bear in mind that
the USA's own consumption of natural gas is growing steadily, at least partly based on this
assumption that natural-gas bounty will just continue to increase. What if it doesn't? Then
America will have refashioned itself as another huge natural-gas market which has
insufficient domestic supply to sustain itself.
The headline is pure tabloid and not supported in the body of the article apart from
'opinions' by certain people or through use of qualifiers. This is not journalism .
Only further proof in my opinion that Euractiv has become part of the EU's unofficial
channels of hybrid warfare . Euractiv/Neuters has also expanded in to the Balkans to
provide 'services' in Croatia/Serbia etc. which just so happens to coincide with all the
shrill headlines about Russia 'influencing the Balkans' – which are of course BS. Just
look at the map. Short of Macedonia (not for long) and Serbia, they are all NATO
states . Russia only helps states who want to help themselves (Syria/Serbia – more
or less).
Not a shred of proof, nay evidence, that Germany is shifting away from NordStream II. FAKE
NUDES!
Ten years ago, in August 2008, Russia and Georgia went to war over South Ossetia, a small
separatist Georgian region which Moscow would later controversially recognise as independent,
in the face of international criticism.
Ten years later, Moscow has still not softened its position towards its neighbours and
its rift with the West has only deepened.
Russia launched armed action against Georgia to come to the rescue of South Ossetia, a
small pro-Russian separatist region where Tbilisi had begun a military operation. The Russian
army rapidly outnumbered the Georgian forces and threatened to take the country's
capital.
A peace treaty was finally hammered out by then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy that
led to the withdrawal of Russian forces. But Moscow recognised as independent the breakaway
regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where it has stationed a large military presence ever
since.
Russia demonstrated its military might over the five days and showed its readiness to
defend – by force, if necessary – its interests in the region it considers its
sphere of influence .
####
Well shove that in your pipe and smoke it!
Yet again, no attribution, no name. It smacks of a thinktank piece peddled through their
Slovak branch.
But this is how things work in the West. No-on is ordered on pain of death to produce
certain items, but is is made very clear that it is in their interests to do so, from
without & from within, but remember kids, it is voluntary ! Neither
self-censorship exists. Those in positions of influence may convince themselves, but for the
rest of the great unwashed, no so much. We've already seen the system fail and produce
not only BREXIT, but other referendums contrary to EU dogma. The evidence is all around us
and plain to see, but still the structures persist in the same old ways, which only bodes
ill. Apparently they still think the sheeple are too stupid to notice let alone act.
"... It looks as if Zuckerman's 'nightmare situation' has come about. I don't know that these were ever proven reserves, and in fact I have the impression that the supposed energy bounty of the Caspian did not turn out quite as imagined, but Washington once thought – not long ago, either – that it was imperative America controlled the Caspian region because it was about 'America's energy security'. Which is another way of saying 'America must have control over and access to every oil-producing region on the planet.' ..."
"... Richardson was correct, though, that Russia 'does not share America's values'. In fact, Americans do not share America's values, in the sense that most Americans by far would not support the actions of the Saudi military in Yemen, the clever false-flag operations of the White Helmets in Syria, the deliberate destabilization of Venezuela, regime-change operations to the right and left in order to obtain governments who will facilitate American commercial and political control, and many other things that official America considers just important tools in the American Global Dominance Toolbox. ..."
"... Washington has long nurtured the dream of being Europe's primary, if not only, energy supplier, and owning the Caspian (had the reserves expectations played out) would have brought them closer to their dream. ..."
The other backstory being that NATO wanted to stick its nose in the Caspian Sea, but has been
pushed out. Not sure exactly what the pretext was. I have a piece in VZGLIAD that explains the whole
thing, but I haven't worked through it yet, will probably do a piece on my own blog in the
near future. But I have a couple of other projects in the queue first.
Dick Cheney, among others, was convinced that the Caspian Basin holds massive deposits of oil
and gas and is strategically significant for that reason.
"Central Asian resources may revert back to the control of Russia or to a Russian led
alliance. This would be a nightmare situation. We had better wake up to the dangers or one
day the certainties on which we base our prosperity will be certainties no more. The
potential prize in oil and gas riches in the Caspian sea, valued up to $4 trillion, would
give Russia both wealth and strategic dominance. The potential economic rewards of Caspian
energy will draw in their train Western military forces to protect our investment if
necessary."
Mortimer Zuckerman
Editor, U.S. News and World Report
"This is about America's energy security. Its also about preventing strategic inroads
by those who don't share our values. We are trying to move these newly independent countries
toward the West. We would like to see them reliant on Western commercial and political
interests. We've made a substantial political investment in the Caspian and it's important
that both the pipeline map and the politics come out right."
Bill Richardson
Then-U.S. Secretary Energy (1998-2000)
It looks as if Zuckerman's 'nightmare situation' has come about. I don't know that these
were ever proven reserves, and in fact I have the impression that the supposed energy bounty
of the Caspian did not turn out quite as imagined, but Washington once thought – not
long ago, either – that it was imperative America controlled the Caspian region because
it was about 'America's energy security'. Which is another way of saying 'America must have
control over and access to every oil-producing region on the planet.'
Richardson was correct, though, that Russia 'does not share America's values'. In fact,
Americans do not share America's values, in the sense that most Americans by far would not
support the actions of the Saudi military in Yemen, the clever false-flag operations of the
White Helmets in Syria, the deliberate destabilization of Venezuela, regime-change operations
to the right and left in order to obtain governments who will facilitate American commercial
and political control, and many other things that official America considers just important
tools in the American Global Dominance Toolbox.
Washington has long nurtured the dream of being Europe's primary, if not only, energy
supplier, and owning the Caspian (had the reserves expectations played out) would have
brought them closer to their dream. A pipeline network would have carried Caspian oil and gas
to Europe. Agreement among the Caspian nations was most definitely not in American interests,
and if you dig you will probably find American interventions to prevent that from coming
about.
"... Chart: Demonization of Russia centers on competition for oil and gas revenues. Pipelines to deliver oil and gas from the Middle East to Europe run through North Africa (Libya) and Syria and / or Turkey. These pipelines are substantially controlled by Western interests with imperial / colonial ties to the U.S., Britain and 'developed' Europe. Russian oil and gas did run through Ukraine, which is now negotiating to join NATO, or otherwise hits a NATO wall before entering Europe. ..."
The indictments are a major political story, but not for the reasons given in
mainstream press coverage. Once Mr. Mueller's indictment is understood to charge the
exploitation of existing social tensions (read it and decide for yourself), the FBI, which Mr.
Mueller directed from 2001 – 2013, is precisely the wrong entity to be rendering
judgment. The FBI has been America's political police since its founding in 1908. Early on
former FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover led legally dubious mass
arrests of American dissidents. He practically invented the slander of conflating
legitimate dissent with foreign agency. This is the institutional backdrop from which Mr.
Mueller proceeds.
In the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s the FBI's targets included the civil rights movement, the
antiwar movement, the American Indian Movement (AIM), the Black Panther Party and any other
political organization Mr. Hoover deemed a threat. The secret (hidden) FBI program COINTELPRO was intended to
subvert political outcomes outside of allegations of criminal wrongdoing and with no regard for the lives of its
targets . Throughout its history the FBI has sided with the powerful against the powerless
to maintain an unjust social order.
Robert Mueller became FBI Director only days before the attacks of September 11, 2001. One
of his first acts as Director was to arrest 1,000 persons without any evidence of criminal
wrongdoing. None of those arrested were ever charged in association with the attacks. The frame
in which the FBI acted -- to maintain political stability threatened by 'external' forces, was
ultimately chosen by the George W. Bush administration to justify its aggressive war against
Iraq.
It is the FBI's legacy of conflating dissent with being an agent of a foreign power that Mr.
Mueller's indictment most insidiously perpetuates. Russians are 'sowing discord,' and they are
using Americans to do so, goes the allegation. Black Lives Matter and Bernie Sanders are listed
in the indictment as roadblocks to the unfettered ascension of Hillary Clinton to the
presidency. Russians are sowing discord, therefore discord is both suspect in itself and
evidence of being a foreign agent.
The posture of simple reporting at work in the indictment -- that it isn't the FBI's fault
that the Russians (allegedly) inserted themselves into the electoral process, runs against the
history of the FBI's political role, the tilt used to craft criminal charges and the facts put
forward versus those put to the side. Given the political agendas of the other agencies that
the FBI joined through the charges, they are most certainly but a small piece of a larger
story.
In the aftermath of the indictments it's easy to forget that the Pentagon created the internet ,
that the NSA
has its tentacles in all of its major chokepoints, that the CIA has been heavily
involved in funding and 'using' social media toward its own ends and that the FBI is only
reputable in the present because of Americans' near-heroic ignorance of history. The claim that
the Russian operation was sophisticated because it had corporate form and function is countered
by the fact that it was, by the various agencies' own claims, ineffectual in changing the
outcome of the election.
I Have a List
While Robert Mueller was busy charging never-to-be-tried Russians with past crimes, Dan
Coats, the Director of National Intelligence,
declared that future Russian meddling has already cast a shadow over the integrity of the
2018 election. Why the Pentagon that created the internet, the NSA that has its tentacles in
all of its major chokepoints, the CIA that has been heavily involved in funding and 'using'
social media toward its own ends and the FBI that just landed such a glorious victory of good
over evil would be quivering puddles when it comes to precluding said meddling is a question
that needs to be asked.
The political frame being put forward is that only these agencies know if particular
elections and candidates have been tainted by meddling, therefore we need to trust them to tell
us which candidates were legitimately elected and which weren't. As generous as this offer
seems, wouldn't the creation of free and fair elections be a more direct route to achieving
this end? Put differently, who among those making the offer, whether personally or as
functionaries of their respective agencies, has a demonstrated history of supporting democratic
institutions?
The 2016 election was apparently a test case for posing these agencies as the meddling
police. By getting the bourgeois electocracy -- liberal Democrats, to agree that the loathsome
Trump is illegitimate, future candidates will be vetted by the CIA, NSA and FBI with impunity.
It's apparently only the pre-'discord, ' the social angst that the decade of the Great
Recession left as its residual, that shifts this generous offer from the deterministic to the
realm of the probable. The social conditions that led to the Great Recession and its aftermath
are entirely home grown.
More broadly, how do the government agencies and people that spent the better part of the
last century undermining democracy at home and abroad intend to stop 'Russian meddling?' If the
FBI couldn't disentangle home grown 'discord' from that allegedly exploited and exacerbated by
the Russians, isn't the likely intention to edit out all discord? And if fake news is a problem
in need of addressing, wouldn't the
New York Times and the Washington Post have
been shut down years ago?
The Great Satin (sic)
While Russia is the villain of the day, week and year due to alleged election 'meddling,'
the process of demonization that Russia has undergone has shown little variation from (alleged)
villain to villain. It is thanks to cable news and the 'newspaper of record' that the true
villainy of Vladimir Putin, Muammar Gadhafi, Saddam Hussein, Nicolas Maduro and the political
leadership of Iran has been revealed. In the face of such monsters, questions of motivation are
moot. Why wouldn't Mr. Putin 'sow discord?'
The question as yet unasked, and therefore unanswered is: is there something besides base
villainy that brought these national leaders, and the nations they lead, into the crosshairs of
America's fair and wise leadership? This question might forever go unanswered were it not for
the secret list from which their names were apparently drawn. No, not that secret list. This one is publicly available -- hiding in plain sight, as it
were. It is the list of proven oil reserves by country (below). This is no doubt unduly
reductive -- evil is as evil does, but read on.
The question of how such a list could divide so evenly between heroes and villains I leave
to the philosophers. On second thought, no I won't. The heroes are allies of a small cadre of
America's political and economic elite who have made themselves fabulously rich through the
alliances. The villains have oil, gas, pipelines and other resources that this elite wants.
Reductive, yes. But this simple list certainly appears to explain American foreign policy over
the last half-century quite well.
Source: gulfbusiness.com
It's almost as if America's love for humanity, as demonstrated through humanitarian
interventions, is determined by imperial competition for natural resources -- in this case oil
and gas. Amongst these countries, only one (Canada) is 'democratic' in the American sense of
being run by a small cadre of plutocrats who use the state to further their own interests. Two
-- Iraq and Libya, were recently reduced to rubble (for the sake of humanity) by the U.S.
Nigeria is being 'brought' under the control of AFRICOM. What remains are various and sundry
petro-states plus Venezuela and Russia.
Following the untimely death of Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, the horrible tyrant kept in office
via free
and fair elections , who used Venezuela's petro-dollars to feed, clothe and educate his
people and was in the process of creating a regional Left alliance to counter American abuse of
power, the CIA joined with local
plutocrats to overthrow his successor, Nicolas Maduro. The goal: to 'liberate' Venezuela's oil
revenues in their own pockets. At the moment Mr. Maduro is down the list of villains, not
nearly the stature of a 'new Hitler' like Vladimir Putin. But where he ends up will depend on
how successfully the CIA (with Robert Mueller's help) can drum up a war against nuclear armed
Russia.
What separates Russia from the other heroes and villains on the list is its history as a
competing empire as well as the manner in which Russian oil and gas is distributed. Geography
placed it closer to the population centers of Europe than to Southeastern China where Chinese
economic development has been concentrated. This makes Europe a 'natural' market for Russian
oil and gas.
The former Soviet state of Ukraine did stand between, or rather under, Russian pipelines and
Europe until Hillary Clinton had her lieutenants engineer a coup there in 2014. In contrast to
the 'new Hitler' of Mr. Putin (or was that Trump?) Mrs. Clinton and her comrades demonstrated a
preference for the old Hitler in the form of Ukrainian fascists who were the ideological
descendants of 'authentic' WWII Nazis. But rest assured, not all of the U.S.'s allies in this
affair
were ideological Nazis .
Chart: Demonization of Russia centers on competition for oil and gas revenues. Pipelines
to deliver oil and gas from the Middle East to Europe run through North Africa (Libya) and
Syria and / or Turkey. These pipelines are substantially controlled by Western interests with
imperial / colonial ties to the U.S., Britain and 'developed' Europe. Russian oil and gas did
run through Ukraine, which is now negotiating to join NATO, or otherwise hits a NATO wall
before entering Europe.
In contrast to the alternative hypotheses given
in the American press, NATO, the geopolitical extension of the U.S. military in Europe,
admits that the U.S.
engineered coup in Ukraine was 'about' oil geopolitics with Russia. The American storyline
that Crimea was seized by Russia ignores that the Russian navy has had a Black Sea port in Crimea for decades. How
amenable, precisely, might Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and his friends be if
Russia seized a major U.S. naval port given their generous offer to take over the U.S.
electoral system because of a few Russian trolls?
Although Russia is toward the bottom of the top ten countries in terms of oil reserves, it
faces a problem of distribution that the others don't. Imperial ties and recent military
incursions have left the distribution of oil and gas from the Middle East to Europe largely
under Western control. Syria, Turkey and North Africa are necessary to moving this oil and gas
through pipelines to Europe. That Syria, Libya and Turkey are now, or recently have been,
militarily contested adds credence to the contention that the 'international community's'
heroes and villains are largely determined by whose hands their oil and gas resources are
currently in.
Democratic Party loyalists who see Putin, Maduro et al as the problem first need to
answer for the candidate they put forward in 2016. Hillary Clinton led the carnage in Libya
that murdered
30,000 – 50,000 innocents for Western oil and gas interests. Russia didn't force the
U.S. into its calamitous invasion of Iraq. Russia didn't take Americans' jobs, houses and
pensions in the Great Recession. Russia didn't reward Wall Street for causing it. Democrats
need to take responsibility for their failed candidates and their failed Party.
Part of the point in relating oil reserves to American foreign entanglements is that the
countries and leaders involved are incidental. Vladimir Putin certainly seems smarter than the
American leadership. But this has no bearing on whether or not his leadership of Russia is
broadly socially beneficial. The only possible resolution of climate crisis requires both
Russia and the U.S. to greatly reduce their use of fossil fuels. Reports have it that Mr. Putin
has no interest in doing so. And once the marketing chatter is set to the side, neither do the
Americans.
By placing themselves as arbiters of the electoral process, the Director of National
Intelligence and the heads of the CIA, NSA and FBI can effectively control it. Is it accidental
that the candidate of liberal Democrats in the 2016 election was the insiders' -- the
intelligence agencies' and military contractors,' candidate as well? Implied is that these
agencies and contractors are now 'liberal.' Good luck with that program if you value peace and
prosperity.
There are lots of ways to create free and fair elections if that is the goal. Use
paper ballots that are counted in public, automatically register all eligible voters, make
election days national holidays and eliminate 'private' funding of electoral campaigns. But why
make elections free and fair when fanciful nonsense about 'meddling' will convince the liberal
class to deliver power to grey corpses in the CIA, NSA and FBI for the benefit of a tiny cabal
of stupendously rich plutocrats. Who says America isn't already great?
The USA can't compete on price and volume. But dir to dvassal status of EU can still force
"diversification"
Notable quotes:
"... As a result, Europeans are deciding to stick with the Russians while finding new options in the east, such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. This is creating competition if not tensions in present and potential gas transit countries in southeastern and eastern Europe, for example. ..."
Russia has advanced forward in something of a tactical and potential strategic victory in
the Russo-Western gas war. This is a three-party war, with the US, EU, and Russia each
promoting separate interests. It is one sphere where a united West has failed to 'isolate
Russia.' The US seeks move in on the European energy market with LNG supplies and replace
Russian pipeline-delivered natural gas supplies to Europe. Washington is using the risks of
dependence on Russian gas and Russia's 'bad behavior' as leverage in attempting to convince
Europeans to reject Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Russia is said to be unreliable and prone
to shut off gas supplies to Europe.
Due to past Russian-Ukrainian gas crises, the Ukrainian crisis, and general Russian-Western
tensions, Europe has decided on a gas diversification policy in which each EU member should
have at least three sources of natural gas supply. One additional option that could facilitate
this diversification policy is US liquified natural gas (LNG), but the US is still unable to
supply enough LNG to offset Russian gas supplies that might be rejected by Europe. In the
process, Washington is looking less like a 'team West' player and more like a solely
self-interested power maximizer in European eyes and therefore no more reliable than Moscow. As
a result, Europeans are deciding to stick with the Russians while finding new options in the
east, such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. This is creating competition if not tensions in present
and potential gas transit countries in southeastern and eastern Europe, for example.
The Battle Over Re-Sale: No Victors
One recent battle was largely inconclusive, but if a victor has to be designated it may be
Moscow. In May, the European Commssion concluded a settlement with Russia's Gazprom in May
ending a seven-year anti-trust dispute. In return for the EU dropping billions of dollars in
penalty fees, GazProm agreed to end limitations on the use of gas purchased by EU members,
allow them to re-sell the gas. Some EU members, such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia have re-sold or wanted to re-sell gas. Moscow
frowned, for example, on Slovakia's resale of natural gas to Ukraine at cheaper prices than
Moscow sought to charge Kiev. The agreement will also restrict Moscow's ability to charge
different countries different prices. So EU members in central and eastern Europe can get a
price close to that paid by Germany and appeal to an arbitration court in case of a dispute.
The agreement guarantees Russia's presence on the European gas market at a time when the
latter's reliance on the former has peaked.
The Northern Front: Nord Stream 2
At the same time, the battle over Russia' Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline has heated up.
When it comes on line in 2019, the 759-mile pipeline will carry GazProm natural gas along the
bed of the Baltic Sea to Germany and double the supply Nord Stream pipeline's current annual
capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm). The Trump administration has threatened yet more
sanctions on third-party companies, this time with those that work on the pipeline. The US
sanctions threat is an attempt to promote American LNG interests as well as to protect
Ukrainian interests, though it contradicts the view that Ukraine should eschew its dependence
on Russian gas.
US officials have been hammering home to Europeans the 'Russian threat' in tandem with the
risk of reliance on Russian gas may pose, which will increase with Nord tream 2, but to no
avail. Public opinion is not working in the US favor, with Germans trusting Moscow more than
Washington, despite all the crimes laid at the Kremlin's door by the West. A recent ZDF
Television opinion survey found that only 14 percent of Germans regard the U.S. as a reliable
partner, while 36 percent view Russia as reliable (
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/trump-s-global-disruption-pushes-merkel-closer-to-putin-s-orbit
). Thus, notwithstanding Ukraine, Syria and alleged chemical attacks, Russiagate, and the
Skrypals, GazProm's supplies to Europe have risen to hold nearly 40 percent of its gas market,
growing last year by 8.1 percent last year to a record level of 193.9 billion cubic metres
(bcm).
Nevertheless, with the EU decision, the U.S., Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and others have
stepped up their pressure on Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and other western Eureopean EU
members to abandon the Nord Stream 2 project. Germans and other western Europeans are unlikely
to give up the short-term gain of energy security for the US LNG given the higher price and
unproven nature of Washington's numerous allegations against the Kremlin. German officials say
they still have no proof from 10 Downing on Russia's culpability for the Skrypal poisoning so
loudly trumpeted by British PM Theresa May.
One motivation for the Russians in building Nord Stream 2 is to obviate the need to
transport gas through Ukraine, which will hurt Ukraine's own energy supply – given
Ukrainian skimming -- and overall economy beyond the present non-sale of Russian gas to
Ukraine. Another Russian motivation is to avert the unreliable Ukrainians, who have failed to
make payments according to contract in the past causing Russian gas cutoffs to Ukraine and thus
Europe with the resulting crises blamed solely on Moscow. The Trump sanctions threat has put
Germany and the other Nord Stream 2 supporting countries between a rock and a hard place,
between Russia and the US. Therefore, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while supporting Nord
Stream 2, has called for guarantees from Russia that Ukraine will remain a gas transit country.
Ukraine's current contract with Russia ends in 2019 at the very time Nord Stream 2 is to go on
line and the EU has urged re-starting EU-mediated negotiatons now in order to avoid another gas
crisis. Putin agreed to do this at his meeting with Germany's merkel in late May. Nord Stream 2
significantly strengthens Putin's hand in any such talks.
The Southern Front: Turkish Stream, SGC and the Azeri and Bulgarian Factors
Russia is strengtheining its position on the European gas war's southern front by building
the Turkish Stream (TS) gas pipeline to Europe. TS consists of a sea and a land leg. The former
runs under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and is built, with Russo-Turkish talks on the
land leg ongoing.
Russia's Turkish Stream is being challenged by the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) backed by
Western powers, including the EU (along with Turkey and Azerbaijan), which sees the SGC as a
means of diversifying from dependence on Russia. Not just Turkey, but Azerbaijan is emerging as
a major player on the EU gas market, with a shift in policy accenting gas supplies to Europe as
well as oil supplies as in the past. The SGC consists of three components: an expanded South
Caucasus Pipeline and the to be constructed Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and
Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). TANAP is 51 percent Azerbaijani owned, 37 percent Turkish, and
12 percent belonging to British Petroleum. The SGC will carry Azerbaijani gas through Turkey to
Europe and will be able to supply up to one-third of the gas consumed by Bulgaria, Greece and
Italy ( https://en.trend.az/business/energy/2910573.html
). However, the source of the gas supplying the pipeline demonstrates the limits of Western
attempts to isolate Russia (and Iran). Azerbaijan's Shah-Deniz gas field is co-owned by British
Petroleum (29 percent), Turkey's Turkish Petroleum (19 percent), Azerbaijan's SOCAR (17
percent), Malaysia's Petronas (15 percent), Russia's LukOil (10 percent), and Iran's NICO (10
percent). Moreover, Russia's LukOil is negotiating with SOCAR a stake in Azerbaijan's
second-largest gas field, Umid-Babek, which also includes Britain's Nobel Upstream (
https://newsbase.com/topstories/lukoil-talks-join-umid-babek-project?utm_campaign=466286_GERD%2031%20May%202018&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NewsBase%20LTD&dm_i=4NTN,9ZSE,2Q5R2D,13DVS,1
).
Again the Ukrainian issue is part of the picture here, as a good portion of GasProm supplies
to Bulgaria go through Ukraine. Turkish Stream can replace at least some of that supply should
Moscow decide to entirely avert Ukraine's pipeline system. It is of interest that no one in the
West has offered to include in any of these projects or attempted to fashion a pipeline or
pipeline extension that could link up with the Ukrainian network.
During Bulgarian President Rumen Radev's late may visit to Moscow, Putin reported to Radev
that during his meetings with Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan, the latter said he would
pose no oppsotion to extending the Turkish Stream gas pipeline to Bulgaria. In response, Radev
seemed to suggest making Bulgaria a "a gas redistribution center, a hub" for the Turkish
Stream's supplies further into Europe ( http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57608
). Moreover, one gets the impression that Bulgaria is wary more about its dependence on Turkey
and Ankara's new offensive energy policy in Europe than on Russia and might help Moscow detour
Ukraine. In 2015, Erdogan declared a major policy initiative of making Turkey a, if not
the major energy transit hub for supplies heading from the east to Europe. Russia's
annexation of Crimea could help Russia in its talks both with Erdogan over the Turkish Stream
and pose the threat of undermining the SGC. It may also help Putin deal with Merkel, Kiev and
the EU over the Ukraine pipeline system's future role. Bulgarian President Radev also said in
Moscow that Sofia supports building a direct gas pipeline under the Black Sea to bring Russian
gas to Bulgaria ( https://echo.msk.ru/news/2206394-echo.html ).
The Bulgarian option could be used by Putin to threaten Erdogan with reducing the Turkish
Stream's supplies or abandoning it altogether in favor of a Black Sea Russian-Bulgarian Stream
and to reduce Russia's dependence on Ukraine as well.
US wants to leverage his dominance in Europe into gas market. That's can work as long as gas
is plentiful. As soon as it became a scarcity the situation will radically change.
This month, the Wall Street Journal
reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has been pressuring Germany to drop its support
for a major new Russian gas pipeline if Europe wants to avoid a trade war with Washington,
while a senior U.S. diplomat warned that the project could be hit with U.S. sanctions; Russian
President Vladimir Putin responded
defiantly . This development, sadly, fuels the further politicization of the European gas
market -- a space that, in many ways, has reflected the triumphs of a depoliticized, pro-market
technocracy, which has managed to stimulate competition and lower prices irrespective of
changing political trends. Just last year, Trump called on European countries to buy American
liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which, for now, remains more expensive than Russia's pipeline
gas. Certainly, the U.S. has much to gain on the global gas market, which has changed
drastically over the past decade, as America rapidly transformed from an importer to an
exporter. Europe's gas market, meanwhile, has much to gain from additional supply. But Trump's
approach, especially if the latest reports are true, both alienates Western European partners
and feeds into a sensationalist, simplistic portrayal of the new U.S. role's effect on Russia
-- as a zero-sum game, in which these new, plentiful U.S. gas supplies serve as an antidote to
Russia's "gas dominance" in Europe and hence to Moscow's political leverage.
In fact, even if Russia remains Europe's dominant gas supplier in the coming years -- as is
likely -- it now has to play by EU rules and vie hard for market share, ultimately benefiting
European consumers. America's gas boom has catalyzed this thriving competition, but an equally
important factor has been a massive, long-term investment in infrastructure and regulation by
Brussels. These EU efforts have done a great deal to weaken Moscow's geopolitical "gas power,"
which has never been uniform across the continent. Today, gas is a prized commodity but not a
major weapon in East-West relations: Russia's gas leverage cannot harm the West, and neither
does competition with U.S. gas pose a major threat to Russia as a state or, for now, to its gas
behemoth, Gazprom. Moreover, in the near to medium term, Russian and U.S. gas companies may
face many
challenges in common : Both will be competing against new, price-lowering producers and
grappling with ever "greener" regulations on the European market, while also trying to profit
from Asia's thirst for energy.
How cheap could Russia produce to compete with growing US LNG exports?
Gazprom needs price around 4 $ per mmbtu in Europe to be profitable. Today in Europe are close to 8 $. US LNG long term imho
need about 8 to 9 $ per mbbtu.
European
Union representatives told me that they would start buying soybeans from our great farmers immediately. Also, they will be buying
vast amounts of LNG!
Hysteria is at fever pitch. After the NATO summit in Brussels, the definitive Decline of the West has been
declared a done deal as President Trump gets ready to meet President Putin in Helsinki.
It was Trump himself who
stipulated that he wants to talk to Putin behind closed doors, face-to-face, without any aides and, in theory,
spontaneously, after the preparatory meeting between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov was canceled. The summit will take place at the early 19
th
century Presidential Palace in
Helsinki, a former residence of Russian emperors.
As a preamble to Helsinki, Trump's spectacular NATO blitzkrieg was a show for the ages; assorted "leaders" in
Brussels simply didn't know what hit them. Trump didn't even bother to arrive on time for morning sessions dealing
with the possible accession of Ukraine and Georgia. Diplomats confirmed to Asia Times that after Trump's stinging
"pay up or else" tirade, Ukraine and Georgia were asked to leave the room because what would be discussed was
strictly an internal NATO issue.
Previewing the summit, Eurocrats indulged in interminable carping about "illiberalism" taking over, from Viktor
Orban in Hungary to Sultan Erdogan in Turkey, as well as mourning the "destruction of European unity" (yes, it's
always Putin's fault). Trump though would have none of it. The US President conflates the EU with NATO,
interpreting the EU as a rival, just like China, but much weaker. As for the US "deal" with NATO, just like NAFTA,
that's a bad deal.
NATO is 'obsolete'
Trump is correct that without the US, NATO is "obsolete" – as in non-existent. So essentially what he did in
Brussels laid bare the case for NATO as a protection racket, with Washington fully entitled to up the stakes for
the "protection".
But "protection" against what?
Since the dismemberment of Yugoslavia, when NATO was repositioned in its new role as humanitarian imperialist
global Robocop, the alliance's record is absolutely dismal.
That features miserably losing an endless war in Afghanistan against a bunch of Pashtun warriors armed with
Kalashnikov replicas; turning functional Libya into a militia wasteland and headquarters for Europe-bound
refugees; and having the NATO-Gulf Cooperation Council lose its bet on a galaxy of jihadis and crypto-jihadis in
Syria spun as "moderate rebels".
NATO has launched a new training, non-combat mission in Iraq; 15 years after Shock and Awe, Sunnis, Shi'ites,
Yazidis and even Kurdish factions are not impressed.
Then there's the NATO Readiness Initiative; the capacity of deploying 30 battalions, 30 battleships and 30
aircraft squadrons within 30 days (or less) by 2020. If not to wreak selected havoc across the Global South, this
initiative is supposedly set up to deter "Russian aggression".
So after dabbling with the Global War on Terror, NATO is essentially back to the original "threat"; the
imminent Russian invasion of Western Europe – a ludicrous notion if there ever was one. The
final
statement
in Brussels spells it out, with special emphasis on item 6 and item 7.
The combined GDP of all NATO members is 12 times that of Russia. And NATO's defense spending is six times
larger than Russia's. Contrary to non-stop Polish and Baltic hysteria, Russia does not need to "invade" anything;
what worries the Kremlin, in the long term, is the well being of ethnic Russians living in former Soviet
republics.
Russia can't be both threat and an energy partner
Then there's Europe's energy policy – and that's a completely different story.
Trump has described the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as "inappropriate", but his claim that Germany gets 70% of its
energy (via natural gas imports) from Russia may be easily debunked. Germany gets at best 9% of its energy from
Russia. In terms of Germany's
sources
of energy
, only 20% is natural gas. And less than 40% of natural gas in Germany comes from Russia. Germany is
fast transitioning towards wind, solar, biomass and hydro energy, which made up 41% of the total in 2018. And the
target is 50% by 2030.
Yet Trump does have a sterling point when, stressing that "Germany is a rich country", he wants to know
why America should
"protect
you against Russia"
when energy deals are on the table. "Explain that! It can't be explained!" as he
reportedly said to Nato Secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday.
In the end, of course, it's all about business. What Trump is really aiming at is for Germany to import US
shale gas, three times more expensive than pipeline-delivered Russian gas.
The energy angle is directly linked to the never-ending 2% defense spending soap opera. Germany currently
spends 1.2% of GDP on NATO. by 2024, it's supposed to reach at best 1.5%. And that's it. The majority of German
voters, in fact, want US troops
out
.
So Trump's demand for 4% of GDP on defense spending for all NATO members will never fly. The sales pitch should
be seen for what it is: a tentative "invitation" for an increased EU and NATO shopping spree on US military
hardware.
In a nutshell, the key factor remains that Trump's Brussels blitzkrieg did make his case. Russia cannot be a
"threat" and a reliable energy partner at the same time. As much as NATO poodles may be terrified of "Russian
aggression", the facts spell out they won't put their money where their rhetorical hysteria is.
Foreign ministers attend a working dinner during the NATO Summit in Brussels on July 11, 2018. They gathered to
discuss Russia, Iraq and their mission in Afghanistan. Photo: AFP/ pool/ Yves Herman
Are you listening now?
"Russian aggression" should be one of the top items discussed in Helsinki. In the – remote – possibility that
Trump will strike a deal with Putin, NATO's absurd
raison d'etre
would be even more exposed.
That's not the US "deep-state" agenda, of course, thus the 24/7 demonization of the summit even before it
happens. Moreover, for Trump, the transactional gambling man's Make-America-Great-Again point of view, the ideal
outcome would always be to get even more European weapons deals for the US industrial-military-intelligence
complex.
Terrified by Trump, diplomats in Brussels over these past few days have conveyed to Asia Times fears about the
end of NATO, the end of the World Trade Organization, even the end of the EU. But the fact remains that Europe is
absolutely peripheral to the Big Picture.
In
Losing Military Supremacy
, his latest, groundbreaking book, crack Russian military-naval analyst
Andrei
Martyanov
deconstructs in detail how, "the United States faces two nuclear and industrial superpowers, one of
which fields a world-class armed forces. If the military-political, as opposed to merely economic, alliance
between Russia and China is ever formalized – this will spell the final doom for the United States as a global
power."
The US deep state (its influential bureaucrats) may be wallowing in perpetual denial, but Trump – after many a
closed-door meeting with Henry Kissinger – may have understood the suicidal "strategy" of Washington
simultaneously antagonizing Russia and China.
Putin's landmark
March
1 speech
, as Martyanov stresses, was an effort to "coerce America's elites, if not into peace, at least into
some form of sanity, given that they are currently completely detached from the geopolitical, military and
economic realities of the newly emerging power configurations of the world". These elites may not be listening,
but Trump seems to indicate he is.
As for the NATO poodles, all they can do is watch.
"... Global Energy Dominance is now part of the US National security Strategy. Although not labeled as global, when reading through the energy dominance section of the NSS, it can clearly been seen to be global. This is not just about sell oil produced in the US. Trump is going for the Achilles heel of Eurasia - energy. ..."
"... Rather than a creative accounting scam that simply racks up huge amounts of debt, Trump is looking for a monopoly or near monopoly business to take over and rake in the profits. ..."
"... As for oil supremacy. This has been an Anglo-american joint venture for over a century and was one reason for WWI being fought as well as the Balfour Declaration to give the Brits a future pro-British state in the region at some point. ..."
"... As for Saudi oil, this was lockef up well before 1945. It was left untouched by the British after WWI and King Saud handed the concessions to the Americans in 1933 because he felt they had no imperialist designs like the British. He was not a fan of the British due to various skirmishes before he solidified power and Saudi borders. . ..."
The latest article at the Saker site by Rostislav Ishchenko - Trump's Geopolitical Cruise - I
think is the best take on Trump's and his backers mindset. Worth a read and covers what I
think was the cause of the split in the US elite.
The petro dollar, kicking off in the late 70s was a piece of creative accounting to give
unlimited credit. This should have been ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, but
greed got the better of most. Trump and the people backing him could see that this was now in
its terminal stages and US close to collapse itself.
Rostislav Ishchenko, like many thinks that Trump is pulling the US back to a form of
isolation from the world, but I don't think this is the case.
Global Energy Dominance is now part of the US National security Strategy. Although not
labeled as global, when reading through the energy dominance section of the NSS, it can
clearly been seen to be global. This is not just about sell oil produced in the US.
Trump is going for the Achilles heel of Eurasia - energy.
Rather than a creative accounting scam that simply racks up huge amounts of debt, Trump is
looking for a monopoly or near monopoly business to take over and rake in the profits.
Russia supply energy to Eurasia from the North. The opening for the Trump mob is in the
south. The meet with Putin may well be to sound out the possibilities of forming a cartel.
Putin/Russia is also the only entity that can prevent Trump's US from simply walking in and
taking over the rich energy hub (Mafia style) to the south of Eurasia.
"Global Energy Dominance is now part of the US National security Strategy."
Yes, it absolutely is. But this is not a new "Trump policy." Certainly Zbiginew Brzezenski
laid this out quite clearly in his 1997 book, "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its
Geostrategic Imperatives." It's really all in there, just as you're now identifying. If you
can't take the time to read it, please consider at least reading some book reviews. As I've
noted before, Ziggy apparently didn't foresee Putin rising to power and restoring the Russian
state, which threw the proverbial monkey wrench into the globalists' plans, but really, US
foreign policy has continued to follow his plans otherwise.
Kissinger has written much the same, though I don't recall in which books/articles. This
page from the US Navy seems a fine reading list, designed as it appears to indoctrinate
officers in AZ Empire geopolitics.
IMO, the US took the lead in the Empire's Global Energy Dominance quest when FDR met with
King Saud on Great Bitter Lake in the Suez Canal in 1945 (swinging by after the final
post-war world planning meeting with Churchill and Stalin at Yalta). This was when the US
largely replaced Great Britain in primacy over Asian/Middle Eastern energy dominance.
The US is in the Persian Gulf to stay. Trumps face face meet with Putin will be so Trump
can try and gauge what Putin will do - if he will run any blocking moves, his reaction to a
fait accompli ect. Most likely a few more face to face meetings before any move on Iran.
Peter, thanks for pointing out the new and unwanted US base in Iraq. I just read that the US
was building the world's largest Embassy Compound in "Iraqi Kurdistan." I wonder it they're
the same thing?
In a quick web search, failing to find an answer, I noticed that besides the "Green Zone"
compound we built in Baghdad at the start of the current military occupation, the record
holder was the US Embassy Compound in Pakistan.
James and I have discoursed here a bit on the history of US military occupations since WW
II. Boils down to the US has never removed its military from any country it's occupied with
the exception of Vietnam.
veritas semper vincit @103 linked blogpost notes that the US has 40,000 troops still
occupying Germany. His (I presume) post is quite entertaining considering the severe
seriousness of the topic.
Dis is a nice little country ya gotz heyah. Id be a shame if sumpin' bad was ta happen to
it.
Have to disagree on the impact of FDR meeting with Saudi Arabias King Saud. That was more
about feeling him out on a future Israeli state in Palestine. His death a couple of months
later may have been related because King Saud made an impression on FDR as to what an Israeli
state would mean for peace in the region. Also, FDR was close to Uncle Joe and unlikely to
back the planned Cold War supported by some of the same folks wanting a destabilized Middle
East and preventing a rebirth of the Ottoman Empire which would control much of the worlds
oil reserves.
As for oil supremacy. This has been an Anglo-american joint venture for over a century and
was one reason for WWI being fought as well as the Balfour Declaration to give the Brits a
future pro-British state in the region at some point.
As for Saudi oil, this was lockef up well before 1945. It was left untouched by the
British after WWI
and King Saud handed the concessions to the Americans in 1933 because he felt they had no
imperialist designs like the British. He was not a fan of the British due to various
skirmishes before he solidified power and Saudi borders. .
"The 1933 concession agreement
between Saudi Arabia and Standard Oil of California (SOCAL) went like this: SOCAL could
search for and produce oil in eastern Saudi Arabia -- a region 20 percent larger than the
state of Texas -- for 60 years; it also received preferential rights to explore elsewhere in
the future. The kingdom received an immediate loan of £30,000 in gold and, 18 months
later, another loan of £20,000 in gold -- an amount equivalent to about $250,000 today
-- plus yearly rentals of £5000 and royalties of four shillings in gold -- about $1 --
per ton of oil produced. (Only later would oil be measured in barrels.)"
"... Trump seems to enjoy antagonizing the Europeans one way or the other. As to NATO, Trump made the same complaints during his campaign while calling it "obsolete." Sometimes it sounds like he would rather have the US out of NATO. One theory I have is that he is limited in what he can do so he works around TPTBs to get closer to his goals. So he antagonizes and threatens Europe on NATO. The same goes for Syria. He talked about wanting to pull out but kept being drawn back in by the usual suspects. So he's pulled monetary support in certain cases and refused to dig the US in any deeper than it is. And it will be interesting to see what happens with his upcoming meeting with Putin considering how much he had to backtrack on his talk of better relations during his campaign. Those who've wanted him to join the "hate Russia" team may get frustrated. ..."
"... Within this new "mulit-polar" world, only Russia is cutting its military budge. And they still seem to have at least one of the most effective conventional war-fighting capability, and their next generation nuclear deterrence looks nothing short of awesome. They have pipelines to build, and like China, long-term economic contracts to sign. ..."
"... I'm no fan of Angela, but she/Germany have been trying to tamp down this AZ Empire New Cold War against Russia since at least 2013. When she, Putin, Yanukovych (elected President of Ukraine) and the leaders of the Maidan protests got together and signed an agreement in which Yanukovych acquiesced to essentially all of the "peaceful, pro-democracy protesters'" demands, it was the Asst. Secretary of the US State (Vickie Nuland) who said, "F*ck the EU" "We can midwife this thing" and even appointed the new PM "Yats is the guy." ..."
"... The US can't keep funding your crappy little joke of a disintegrating "European Union" for ever. Sooner or later you'll have to put on big-boy pants. ..."
"... USA govt's assessment of China and Russia as "revisionist" should be understood as a determination to remain the hegemonic power. Thus, we have Cold War II. From that perspective, European objections to more "defense" spending are considered naive (or worse) as Europe's fate is views as tied to that of the Empire. ..."
"... I think European elites are much more likely to side with USA than European people. If the Trump's talk with Putin doesn't go well, we are likely to see increased scaremongering to rectify public opinion. ..."
"... Chaos can make doing business harder, but that can also increase profits. As the posters said in the '60s, "War Is Not Good For Children And Other Living Things." But it's great for the psychopaths. ..."
"... Here is an article that explains the relationship between Russian pipelines, USA sanctions on Russia, MH17, Crimea, and Syria. It is an excellent background to comprehend Trump's accusations about Germany's purchase of gas from Russia. Patrick Armstrong and Pat Lang seem to think that Trump is about to cut NATO support, reduce/eliminate sanctions against Russia, and redirect relations with Israel, but I am not persuaded. https://www.unz.com/article/why-was-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-shot-down/ by Kees van der Pijl He also wrote a book on this topic. ..."
"... Everything the US does works to undermine its old power in the new world. We see this continually. Trump is an accelerator. But whether any of this is intentional and actually desired by a part of US vested interests, is still an open question. ..."
"... Nevertheless, as we watch, we see every action of the US working to cement the bonds of its opposition in the rest of the world. From the Escobar article linked by karlof1 above, we see the pressure on the Middle East to reject the US and turn for safety to the Eurasian institutions of commerce, finance and national security. The same thing is happening to Europe. ..."
"... he equation as it stands now is this: A muscle-bound USA + an anaemic Europe "deterring" a Russian Federation that has no intention of invading. ..."
"... Since Russia is no threat either way then there is no need - none whatsoever - for the Europeans to increase their military expenditure to "defend themselves" against a non-existent Russian threat. ..."
"... Indeed, the only reason the Europeans would feel that they might have to prepare to "defend themselves" would be because that muscle-bound US military is now outside the tent pissing in, not inside the tent pissing out. ..."
"... Since whenever, America has been the proxy front for the current instantiation of empire with the core of control being ongoing private finance with global tools like BIS, IMF, World Bank, etc. Since WWII and even before the goal of empire is to have all of the world under its control. Since the engine of empire is a supra-national matrix of private finance control, the enemy becomes any nations who do not want to be impregnated with the Western model of private Central Bank, an oligarchy , inheritance, private property, etc. ..."
"... The empire model of growth through wars and boom/bust expansion has reached its "logical" limits and the the existential question has become, blow everything all up or agree to a multipolar world. I think that the elite hope Trump's bluster will make it so they do not have to answer that existential question.....yet ..."
"... If Trump's fake argument gambit was intended to inspire people inside and outside the EU to think outside the box then it seems to have worked. ..."
"... I LUV how Trump stomped on all those preaning European elite scumbags. ..."
"... Agree with Patrick. It is surprising to still see so much animosity towards a president who has done more to combat the absurdity of NATO and globalism than I can remember any other President doing. The ball is in the EU elites court, now. Put up or shut up and I believe it makes no difference to Trump. We are about to find out who is REALLY to blame for marching lockstep with the current of hypercentralization (globalism): the Trump admin or the EU elitez. ..."
"... The US has been manipulating NATO ever since it was formed. Most NATO officials are vetted by the US. Trump is an idiot, like the bulk of US politicians. ..."
"... Trump's "reasoning" makes sense in an infantile sort of way, but there's more too it than meets the eye, is there not? Trump doesn't just want to Europe to "pay their fair share" for NATO, which we all know is code for buying more US mil.gear but also to buy their LNG from US too. It's like NATO is some sort of grotesque, evil franchise where the franchisees can only buy goods/services from that single source, even though it's crap & inordinately expensive, and even if you can get it cheaper elsewhere, i.e Russia. ..."
"... Wow! You don't feel that Trump has, by his mere existence and by winning the presidency, been given a platform of which to decry the myriad injustices of globalization and to utter things unspeakable by any Prez in the last fifty years? ..."
"... Europe has an arms industry of their own. I doubt European countries invest their money into US stuff - they buy their own. Most of the money does not go into weapons anyway, but personel and administration. Germany contributes to the maintenance and infrastructure of US bases, but those bases are business, too. This is not Saudi Arabia buying protection. The real news is that Trump has started a trade war negotiating by tantrum. ..."
You are agreeing with an idiot, no matter what...Europe has nothing to worry about with
regards to Russia. Unless they threaten Russia. 'Love this exchange at breakfast;
"Stoltenberg: [ ] I think that two World Wars and the Cold War taught us that we
are stronger together than apart.
Trump: But how can you be together when a country is getting its energy from the
person you want protection against or from the group that you want protection?
Stoltenberg: Because we understand that when we stand together, also in dealing
with Russia, we are stronger. I think what we have seen is that --
Trump: No, you're just making Russia richer. You're not dealing with Russia.
You're making Russia richer."
You'd have to be an idiot not to agree with Trump here.
Trump seems to enjoy antagonizing the Europeans one way or the other. As to NATO, Trump
made the same complaints during his campaign while calling it "obsolete." Sometimes it sounds
like he would rather have the US out of NATO. One theory I have is that he is limited in what
he can do so he works around TPTBs to get closer to his goals. So he antagonizes and
threatens Europe on NATO. The same goes for Syria. He talked about wanting to pull out but
kept being drawn back in by the usual suspects. So he's pulled monetary support in certain
cases and refused to dig the US in any deeper than it is. And it will be interesting to see
what happens with his upcoming meeting with Putin considering how much he had to backtrack on
his talk of better relations during his campaign. Those who've wanted him to join the "hate
Russia" team may get frustrated.
Will he take direct action on any of these things? I doubt it. The indirect route seems to
go in the right direction.
karlof!. Good to "see" you back. The following is specifically to you, but it does continue
from your first comment. [I couldn't get some links to embed, sorry]
My best short term hope is that all this war-blustering is just to convince we commoners
to bend over so the military/industrial contractors can make lots of gelt. The Global War OF
Terror has been terrific for their bank accounts, but with SAA and the MoD of the RF beating
the snot out of terrorists wherever they go to such an extent that the Pentagon is
considering ISIS essentially defeated.
Besides, the really "big ticket products" are things like aircraft carriers,
"upgraded" nuclear weapons, 5th Generation fighters, etc. etc. etc., that are harder to
excuse when their targets are guys in sandals with AK47s and IEDs. That could be why the 2018
National Defense Strategy plan has shifted from fighting "terrorism" back to " the long-term,
strategic competition between nations."
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf
Same with our "adversary" across the big pond in China. Just the other day, the CPC warned
of "China's army infiltrated by 'peace disease' requiring a major new "defense posture" just
like the US and NATO.
Within this new "mulit-polar" world, only Russia is cutting its military budge. And
they still seem to have at least one of the most effective conventional war-fighting
capability, and their next generation nuclear deterrence looks nothing short of awesome. They
have pipelines to build, and like China, long-term economic contracts to sign.
No dear b, for once I think you've got it wrong. I see Trump asking three question for all of
which there is one answer.
1. Angela. You tell us that NATO ought to concentrate on the Russian threat. If Russia is a
threat, why are you buying gas from it?
2. Angela, You tell us that Russia is a reliable energy supplier. If Russia is a reliable
supplier, why are you telling us it's a threat?
3. Angela. I hope you're not saying Russia is a threat and its gas is cheap but the USA will
save us.
The answer to all 3 questions is: we're out of here, defend yourselves. It's Trump cutting
the Gordian Knot of obligations.
Aarrgghh! Besides some continuity problems when I recut and pasted the above since the links
weren't working, I also left out the following completely.
That could be why, even though the US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review observes we are changing
from: "For decades, the United States led the world in efforts to reduce the role and number
of nuclear weapons." To " the current, pragmatic assessment of the threats we face and the
uncertainties regarding the future security environment." Which conveniently can use up, or
more likely go over budget on former President CareBear's additional $10 Billion in nuclear
weapons development over the succeeding 10 years.
I'm no fan of Angela, but she/Germany have been trying to tamp down this AZ Empire New
Cold War against Russia since at least 2013. When she, Putin, Yanukovych (elected President
of Ukraine) and the leaders of the Maidan protests got together and signed an agreement in
which Yanukovych acquiesced to essentially all of the "peaceful, pro-democracy protesters'"
demands, it was the Asst. Secretary of the US State (Vickie Nuland) who said, "F*ck the EU"
"We can midwife this thing" and even appointed the new PM "Yats is the guy."
She was then an active participant in the Minsk Agreement to end the "anti-terrorism
action" Which our gal Vickie shredded publicly the next day because the AZ Empire thought the
Uki-Nazis would finish off those Muscovite, Colorado hicks and (can I post the Ukie terms for
Jews?) in the east like they'd done in the south.
Then, Angela was involved in the Minsk II cease-fire/road to peace (when the Uki-Nazis
were being driven out of the east, and were about to lose Mariupol).
I know there are others in addition to b here who know this stuff better than I. Isn't
this about right?
"It is extremely hypocritical for Poland to lobby against Nord Stream when it significantly
contributes to Poland's energy security."
There are other explanations that could be better documented, like stupidity and insanity.
BTW, Poland has big pollution problem, and a major part is that many older multifamily
buildings and new single family building has polluting heating with coal furnaces and stoves.
Natural gas does not generate pollutants except for CO2 which is not affecting health, plus
it uses less than half of carbon than coal.
On the other note, merely to get enough gas for internal needs, Poland could get enough
through Belorus. But if you need to add re-export to Ukraine, that is not enough. So Poles
can pride themselves of not being as stupid and insane as their southeastern neighbors.
Well stated. There are many gordian knots. The BIS should be dissolved
""Responsible fiscal practice requires a government to fill spending gaps left by
fluctuations in non-government spending patterns. In that way, the government takes
responsibility for maintaining full employment. What the Troika did in Greece was the
exemplar of irresponsible fiscal practice.""
I really really like the way you include a 'solution' to a global problem in this analysis b.
To many times we just speak to the choir and rarely are solutions presented regardless where
they lie on the possible/probable line. Did I mention I really like this SA. Thanks.
karlof1 @7. In graph 1, of actual dollar expenditure, NATO spending was going down until
2012, then it started to rise again, and has been a net increase every year since 2015.
In graph 4, per nation spending relative to GDP went up from 2014 to 2017 in almost all
member states notably, except the US and UK, but even then, US went from 3.58% to slightly
over 3.5% and UK from 2.14% to a touch over 2.1%, so both are above the 2% "minimum."
Graphs 5, 6, 7 all show actual dollar expenditures dropping from 1010 to 2014, but then
increasing every year since then.
Perhaps I misunderstood your point. But it sure looks like NATO spending has been rising
since this "New Cold War" really kicked into gear in 3024/2015.
"One big reason they deposed the Shah who was planning to go big with nuclear power with
orders for about 20 French and /or German reactors"
Another hat in the ring for CIA/MI6/Mossad helping to install the Islamic part of the
Iranian Revolution? WooHoo!
"China basically has a monopoly on these metals"
Yes. Bear in mind though that "discovered" after the US invasion/occupation is that
Afghanistan has perhaps the world's largest reserves of lithium. And the "Democratic
Republic" of Congo also has much rare earth wealth. As in fact do other parts of central
Africa. Hence, the AZ Empire's new "AfriCom" military classification and the reinstallation
of French Colonialism.
I'm not so up on this whole tariff thing. Hasn't Germany had substantial tariffs on
automobiles for years now? Do those tariffs apply to other EU states?
Daniel
I have read in the past that Afghan is very rich in a number of minerals and China was
looking at development there as part of it road belt intuitive. Going by the state
Afghanistan is in I can't see the US extracting minerals there. US squatting in Afghanistan
may be simply to deny Chinese access to the mineral deposits.
If NS2 goes online and EU goes dark to Qatar, especially if Iran corks Qatar with a South
pipeline, the Middle East economies will collapse into chaos, and nobody will be buying
either US guns or butter.
US'own economy is going down the crapper with No Taxes for the Rich running an $800B
Deficit, and private Fed Bank ratcheting up $50B at a gulp in interest-only Debt financing
...forever. Collapse of MediCare and MediCaid will bleed even more out of the retsil economy,
which will increase the Deficit, into a National Debt death spiral, and collapse of the
public pensiin systems.
If you project MIC arms spendung and Fed interest-only bleed out, Trump's illegal 25% Fed
VAT sales tax (aka 'tariffs) and EU/RU/CH counter-tariffs, all US health and human services
will be insolvent by 2025.
When that happens, and could happen much sooner, the world we knew in 20C will be
inverted, upended, chaos, albeit, only chaos for the Lower Classes, Workers and Private
Pensioners/401Ks. The Deep Purple Mil.Gov UniParty will...uhh...find a way!
@kgw
"You are agreeing with an idiot, no matter what...Europe has nothing to worry about with
regards to Russia. Unless they threaten Russia."
Well shit or get off the pot why don't you - "idiot" Trump is calling your bluff - stop
freeloading off a (by your assessment) non-existent threat, or he'll stop it for you. Can't
have it both ways. The US can't keep funding your crappy little joke of a disintegrating
"European Union" for ever. Sooner or later you'll have to put on big-boy pants.
James, @44. I largely agree with (and have called for) Patrick's recommendations for what
Ukraine should do now. I don't see anything in there that contravenes what I wrote about
Germany's role in the AZ Empire's coup and resulting war, though.
Do you remember those events, or should I dig out citations? I was following it pretty
closely from mid/late 2013 until it quieted down in 2015. Since then, I just pick up articles
here and there.
When you'd have to be an idiot to agree with Trump ($1 TRILLION MIC arms profiteering
slash National Police State slash MIC Indefinite Detention Gulags), but now you'd have to be
an idiot NOT to agree with Trump (drag EU into the funeral pyre)m then you know it must be
the Red Army v Blue Army media spewfest and the National Novitiate in November is near.
Rahhh.
E pluribus now get back to work. Your 2Q ONE TRILLION Deep Purple State tithe-tibute is
due in 3 more days, ONE TRILKION that you and your hiers will never see again.
USA govt's assessment of China and Russia as "revisionist" should be understood as a
determination to remain the hegemonic power. Thus, we have Cold War II. From that
perspective, European objections to more "defense" spending are considered naive (or worse)
as Europe's fate is views as tied to that of the Empire.
I think European elites are much more likely to side with USA than European people. If
the Trump's talk with Putin doesn't go well, we are likely to see increased scaremongering to
rectify public opinion.
Not to mention those same rare earth metals are getting out of DRC despite millions of
murderous deaths and disease.
And the oil started flowing out of Libya before Gaddafi was even lynched. Oil's been
flowing out of "Kurdish" Iraq into Israel come hell or high water. And of course, ISIL was
shipping Syrian oil through Turkey and Jordan (if not Israel) throughout.
Chaos can make doing business harder, but that can also increase profits. As the
posters said in the '60s, "War Is Not Good For Children And Other Living Things." But it's
great for the psychopaths.
Trump's native approach I suspect may be something like that of fellow-New Yorker and great
American chess player Bobby Fischer who famously said: "Try something!"
That sounds about right. I would only add that Minsk Accord is another example of a
non-agreement. Ukraine never signed yet Russia is accused of not implementing this
non-agreement whenever people feel the need for some more Russia-bashing.
Here is an article that explains the relationship between Russian pipelines, USA
sanctions on Russia, MH17, Crimea, and Syria. It is an excellent background to comprehend
Trump's accusations about Germany's purchase of gas from Russia. Patrick Armstrong and Pat
Lang seem to think that Trump is about to cut NATO support, reduce/eliminate sanctions
against Russia, and redirect relations with Israel, but I am not persuaded. https://www.unz.com/article/why-was-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-shot-down/
by Kees van der Pijl He also wrote a book on this topic.
Trump follows the footsprints of the post-USA Civil War Republican Party policy. From
Chapter 1 of The Politicos 1865-1896 by Matthew Josephson (published in 1938)
"The new industrialist and financial class and the farmers of the North emerged the
greatest gainers by far among the mixed coalition of classes which fought to win the social
revolution underlying the War Between the States. But no less triumphant and dominent was the
war party itself, the youthful organization of professional politicians and officeholders
known as the Republican Party. A minority party in 1860, and victor in a three-cornered
electoral contest, it knew during the war the intoxication of unchallenged power and fortune
beyond calculation, leaving it in command of all the offices of the Federal Government!"
From Beard, Contemporary American History, p.91
It had the management of the gigantic war finances, through which it attached to itself
the interests ... of the great capitalists and bankers throughout the North. It raised
revenues by a high tariff which placed thousands of manufacturers under debt to it and
linked their fortunes also with its fate ... Railway financiers and promoters of all kinds
had to turn to it for privileges and protection...
jackrabbit@59
surprised to hear you say Ukraine did not sign MinskII. On the contrary, I read that it was
signed by LD Kuchma, Second President of Ukraine. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Signatories
The document was signed by:[23]
Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
Separatist's leaders Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_II#Signatories
All-night negotiations on Wednesday ended with the signing of the Declaration of Minsk in
support of the "Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements" by Angela
Merkel of Germany, Francois Hollande of France, Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine and Vladimir
Putin of Russia and release of the full agreement. The talks, according to some reports,
almost collapsed near the end as Ukraine and rebel leaders balked at signing.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/02/13/putin-comes-out-on-top-in-new-minsk-agreement/#21ffe18f4ede
From Chapter 1 of The Politicos 1865-1896 by Matthew Josephson (published in 1938):
"The prosecution of the war against rebellion had been associated with a protective tariff
levied against a hated England. which profited and sought to profit further from our
disaster. With the close of the war, a cry arose from the Northeastern region that high
tariffs were needed to pay the war debt. and an outburst of high Protectionism followed in
1866."
Everything the US does works to undermine its old power in the new world. We see this
continually. Trump is an accelerator. But whether any of this is intentional and actually
desired by a part of US vested interests, is still an open question.
Nevertheless, as we watch, we see every action of the US working to cement the bonds
of its opposition in the rest of the world. From the Escobar article linked by karlof1 above,
we see the pressure on the Middle East to reject the US and turn for safety to the Eurasian
institutions of commerce, finance and national security. The same thing is happening to
Europe.
Some days I think that Trump was a brilliantly inspired choice of some deep state players
to further their agenda of fragmenting the old arrangements to allow new alignments to come
into place - to modernize the elite control of the world. But most days I just don't know.
What can one say about a force this magisterial and still this enigmatic?
I was talking with a friend today about Trump. She said she sees his approach as quite
typical of US business style. You come out with the big stick, knowing it will get chopped in
half by the time you get to agreement. But at least you end up with half a stick. Gotta start
big. You don't ask, you don't get.
This style worked perfectly with North Korea, which was a standout among the nations of
the world, in my opinion, for understanding superbly well how Trump played the game, and
played it right back. The result was a meeting of equals, where something could actually get
done. But NK worked hard to develop the bargaining chip to put on the table too. Words
without substance don't work.
I'm not seeing many other countries responding with this same kind of exaggerated bravado
- it is a very US way of doing business. Most countries are simply working to go around the
US. Europe seems to be doing the same thing, simply rejecting and turning away. But the
European countries could certainly create bargaining chips if they wanted to play the Trump
game of negotiation. I truly suspect his style is something they're still getting to grips
with. Perhaps they should call Kim for pointers.
I think ultimately we are seeing two things at work, and in tandem: the natural style of
Trump, and the very real and unstoppable current of history. Whether either force is aware of
the other, I can't say. Like the success or failure of the French Revolution, it's too soon
to tell.
@65 Good summary. I think the Europeans simply don't know what to make of him. The look on
Stoltenberg's face said it all. They just don't know how to respond to someone so direct.
Maybe Putin is the only one who can talk his language....but not in public.
China's taking a page from Mahan regarding sea power. NATO graphs: I mentioned Obama
ordered an increase in spending and the chart shows the compliance. The ups and downs
correlate well with wars and major recessions.
@53 daniel... what you said earlier - i think much the same way... i would be curious to know
more of how patrick armstrong sees all that, but i think it is much the same as us too..
those links @53 reflect how messed up ukraine is at present.. having a failed state on your
doorstep doesn't sound like fun and that works both ways for europe and russia.. i guess that
was the usa ( and israels?) plan... screw up countries so they don't function properly, so
you have to spend a lot of imf money to fix them.. works for wall st, lol..
@38 "The answer to all 3 questions is: we're out of here, defend yourselves"
Patrick, I'm confused: they are meant to defend themselves against whom, exactly? T he
equation as it stands now is this: A muscle-bound USA + an anaemic Europe "deterring" a
Russian Federation that has no intention of invading.
Remove the muscle-bound Americans from the equation and this is what remains: An anaemic
Europe "deterring" a Russian Federation that has no intention of invading.
Since Russia is no threat either way then there is no need - none whatsoever - for the
Europeans to increase their military expenditure to "defend themselves" against a
non-existent Russian threat.
Indeed, the only reason the Europeans would feel that they might have to prepare to
"defend themselves" would be because that muscle-bound US military is now outside the tent
pissing in, not inside the tent pissing out.
@68 Maybe they thought Ukraine would join the EU at some point but Crimea was the prize. The
plan was to turn Crimea into a NATO base. Putin spoiled everything.
Wikipedia also says (as part Leonid Kuchma's bio):
Since July 2014, Kuchma has been Ukraine's representative at the semi-official peace
talks regarding the ongoing War in Donbass.
Why are they "semi-official"? Because Ukraine would not talk to the rebels
directly. They believe that the rebels are sponsored by Russia so the dispute is between
Russia and Ukraine. They would not talk to the rebels as that might convey legitimacy to the
rebels. That's why the Trialteral Contact Group was set up. The signers of Minsk II (Russia,
Germany, France, Kuchma/Ukraine) are merely "guarantors" of an agreement between Ukraine and
the Donbas rebels - neither of which has actually signed.
Kuchma "represents" Ukraine but can't bind Ukraine. Although Poroschenko attended some of
the talks, he never signed the agreement.
Minsk and Minsk II have reduced conflict somewhat but Ukraine has dragged its feet every
step of the way. For example: they were slow to pull back heavy artillery as called for under
the accord, then they wouldn't pass laws that were necessary for other provisions of the
accord.
The Minsk accords outlined a detailed procedure through which Donetsk and Luhansk would
receive "special status," hold internationally-recognized elections, and then negotiate
their reintegration into Ukraine directly with Kiev, including basic constitutional reforms
to federalize the country. No substantive steps have ever been undertaken by either side to
implement these terms, and the new "Donbass Integration Law" now makes clear that Kiev
expects the country to be re-united on its terms alone, though probably not anytime
soon.
Ukrainian lawmakers, who overwhelmingly passed the bill on Jan. 19, argue that it
simply normalizes a situation that has long existed but was clouded by misleading jargon
and official fealty to the non-functioning Minsk accords .
Poroschenko signed the bill into law in February 2018.
@dh "Maybe Putin is the only one who can talk his language"
Going by what Putin said of Trump after their 2 1/2 hour meeting in Vietnam, it seems more
likely Trump talks in Putin's language when meeting actual leaders. Same would go for his
meeting with KJU, and I would guess Xi.
Since whenever, America has been the proxy front for the current instantiation of
empire with the core of control being ongoing private finance with global tools like BIS,
IMF, World Bank, etc. Since WWII and even before the goal of empire is to have all of the
world under its control. Since the engine of empire is a supra-national matrix of private
finance control, the enemy becomes any nations who do not want to be impregnated with the
Western model of private Central Bank, an oligarchy , inheritance, private property,
etc.
The empire model of growth through wars and boom/bust expansion has reached its
"logical" limits and the the existential question has become, blow everything all up or agree
to a multipolar world. I think that the elite hope Trump's bluster will make it so they do
not have to answer that existential question.....yet
The EU has always been a bastard child with little chance of growing up because there was
no finance core agreements to manage the national variations within. I am surprised it has
lasted as long as it has given the historical tension between the nations. The US has similar
social tensions but our structure has homoginized the economy enough that we haven't
imploded...yet
The key to this process which I believe is being managed by the elite is at what point are
the big decisions made and by whom. Given the accelerated nature of the managed
deconstruction, I suspect the elite believe they will retain their mystique of power long
enough to not lose grip on private finance running the Western world. The EU countries will
have to come to terms with their oligarchs and determine what path forward works for all of
eurasia. I don't see the current leadership of any EU countries as having the public's best
interest in mind or action.
Are we seeing Western plutocracy fail of its own "weight"? Perhaps so.....nice
I LUV how Trump stomped on all those preaning European elite scumbags. He's my hero
for pooping all over their little pride parade. Tell em like it is Donald they call you
stupid and all those other useless names. Your stinking GENIUS. MORE and an ENCORE!!!!
Agree with Patrick. It is surprising to still see so much animosity towards a
president who has done more to combat the absurdity of NATO and globalism than I can remember
any other President doing. The ball is in the EU elites court, now. Put up or shut up and I
believe it makes no difference to Trump. We are about to find out who is REALLY to blame for
marching lockstep with the current of hypercentralization (globalism): the Trump admin or the
EU elitez.
Sorry for the break in the Trump-bashing. Let's all get back to that good ol'
America-hatin' catharsis.
Since the start of the 70ties I have heard exactly the same tune from the US and the
blathering idiot in charge now has not changed the tune; ever since have I had to listen to
this "The Russians are coming" tune, with the rhetoric getting ever more shrill and false,
1989 brought a brief and marvelous, albeit very short pause to this tune, and for a few years
the US Kleptocracy was happy plundering the former USSR. When Russia resisted the plunder i.
e. Putin was elected, the tune started over again from where it was paused, disregarding the
fact that Russia does not in any way compare to the former USSR.
N, noooe , it is still "The Russians are coming" playing, but with a new beat, pepped up,
but same substance. But we are not listening anymore, the disgraceful actions and evil
behavior of The United States of Mordor, have come into the open (The internet, appreciate
it, we will not for long have it in its present form), even the most daft of us quietly
starts wondering.
Well I am not daft, and the questioning ended 4 decades ago, The US must be resisted. Our
politicians here on the continent must wake up and reject US imperialism and militarism, and
devise our own defenses if deemed necessary, many European nations are not at the living
standards we enjoy in Scandinavia, surely the money were better spent on that.
If the Poles and Baltic's want American troops on their soil, withdraw EU spending, we do
not need their insane sabre rattling. (Especially the Poles are vile, they forget that when
Hitler invaded, they had been a fascist dictatorship for years).
What exactly has Trump done to combat the absurdity of globalization and NATO besides
talk? While he stopped TPP and TIPP he is negotiating similar agreements bilaterally. Also
his Personal Empire benefits from globalization.
US only contributes 1% of their defense budget to NATO's direct costs so pulling out of
NATO would make hardly a dent in the budget except to increase costs to relocate all the
personnel and hardware. Those bases are invaluableHis calling for NATO countries to increase
defense spending benefits US and Israeli companies who make up the military and security
industrial complex and wont do squat to lower the defense budget
Born and raised in Southern California, been here 70 years... The US has been
manipulating NATO ever since it was formed. Most NATO officials are vetted by the US. Trump
is an idiot, like the bulk of US politicians.
@kgw
"You are agreeing with an idiot, no matter what...Europe has nothing to worry about with
regards to Russia. Unless they threaten Russia."
Well shit or get off the pot why don't you - "idiot" Trump is calling your bluff - stop
freeloading off a (by your assessment) non-existent threat, or he'll stop it for you. Can't
have it both ways. The US can't keep funding your crappy little joke of a disintegrating
"European Union" for ever. Sooner or later you'll have to put on big-boy pants. Methinks this
guy has a good take on this.
You're assuming Europe's leaders aren't bought and paid for by Wall Bank Street Banksters.
The system is rigged. I wouldn't doubt that they go into lapdog mode and bow to blowhard
Trump.
Mrs Merkel emphasised that the German armed forces would remain commanded by parliament and
not the government, and "would not take part in every mission".
This here is a clear description of the issues
involved . Of course, in the rivalry between the US and Russia, Europe's interest is best
served playing the two off each other united. It is no surprise both - the US and Russia -
have a strategic interest to split Europe. You don't believe Russia doing this, too? This
here is from Greece . No, their government is not anti-Russian.
Macedonia is expecting an invitation at the NATO summit in Brussels this week to join
following its landmark deal with Greece whereby it will change its name to the Republic of
North Macedonia. Moscow strongly opposes NATO expansion.
...
The Greek diplomatic source told Reuters Athens would expel two diplomats and bar two
other Russians from entering the country due to concerns that they were involved in rallies
in Greece against the deal with Macedonia and that they had attempted to offer money to
Greek state officials.
Becoming a "neutral" military force would end this type of nonsense. Trump acting like
mafia is another strong incentive.
"The U.S. military is the biggest socialist organization of the world. It is
egalitarian and its citizens, i.e. the soldiers, are extremely well cared for. It runs its
own healthcare system through the Veterans Health Administration."
A wonderful conclusion b.
Does anyone know of any in-depth economic analysis of the U.S. military as a state
welfare system for its members, as well as the impact of aggregate military spending on the
general purchasing power of citizens within the society at large?
And US military spending is also an enormous job-creation and wealth-redistribution
program in the form of defense contractors spread all over the nation, where they are
especially vital for areas with weak employment.
The US winds up with a lot of projects it does not need because Congresspeople are not
about to kill a program that employs thousands in their districts.
Why should Germany spend 4% on its military? Didnt see that coming from this blog. Are
germany facing an enemy? If not, its a waste of more money. All this useless money could be
spend to actually strenghten the welfare state. Something that actually matters and are much
needed. So which enemy is Germany facing? Either Trump is right that Russia is a threat to
Germany or hes not. What is it?
The nonbinding motion, which came as the Senate voted to reconcile its version of the
annual defense policy bill with that of the House, expresses the Senate's support for NATO
and calls on negotiators to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to it. The 97-2 vote in the Senate
comes as Trump heads to Brussels.
Trump's "reasoning" makes sense in an infantile sort of way, but there's more too it
than meets the eye, is there not? Trump doesn't just want to Europe to "pay their fair share"
for NATO, which we all know is code for buying more US mil.gear but also to buy their LNG
from US too. It's like NATO is some sort of grotesque, evil franchise where the franchisees
can only buy goods/services from that single source, even though it's crap & inordinately
expensive, and even if you can get it cheaper elsewhere, i.e Russia.
I would love to see those fence-sitting NATO countries tell the US "sure, we'll increase
our mil. spending, but after what we saw in Syria, we'll be buying our gear from Russia"
(more bang for the buck too!) - that would be game, set & match right there!
I think you are wrong, Bernard. It will sell well in Europe too. To what extend were the
themes of the Brexit campaign based on Germany as the slave master of Europe, to exaggerate
slightly? It will also sell well in the US.
Wow! You don't feel that Trump has, by his mere existence and by winning the
presidency, been given a platform of which to decry the myriad injustices of globalization
and to utter things unspeakable by any Prez in the last fifty years?
I don't think you've been paying attention. The proof is in the pudding but what will be
the benefit of raising the spectre of doubt over bad deals like NATO, the current iteration
of world trade, and for animosity towards Russia? Evidently, it ain't worth shit to
predictable TDS-sufferers that hang around here.
So much for those who projected that Trump's demands for an increase in the defense spending
of other members and his scolding of Germany would lead to a weaker Nato! Nato members just
caved to Trump and are increasing their spending and Trump is touting that Nato is stronger
and everyone's doing the kumbaya.
When I say that Trump is establishment on steroids; it's an understatement. Trump is doing
the kissy, kissy with Putin because the plan is to pull Russia away from collaborating with
China. Zionist oligarchs are in league with Trump and Russia will eventually be under their
complete control.
@98 You just don't get it. Trump is fascist establishment. Trump is separating kids from
their mothers. Who does that??? He's a sick sadist.
Europe has an arms industry of their own. I doubt European countries invest their
money into US stuff - they buy their own. Most of the money does not go into weapons anyway,
but personel and administration. Germany contributes to the maintenance and infrastructure of
US bases, but those bases are business, too. This is not Saudi Arabia buying protection. The
real news is that Trump has started
a trade war negotiating by tantrum.
But Trump has a great point: if you claim that Russia is ready to invade you, why you are
buying gas from potential occupier?
Notable quotes:
"... Russia is a near neighbor to Germany. Commerce between relatively close countries is the normal course of events, so what is Trump suggesting, a 1970's style energy embargo on Russia? Depriving Russia the opportunity all trade with her neighbors 'because we said so' is no better than a blockade. ..."
Donald Trump, the 'America First' salesman, came to Brussels today to demand more tribute
to the empire. He wants Europe to buy more U.S. made weapons and to use U.S. liquefied
natural gas (LNG). But his arguments are all wrong. The people in Europe are not impressed by
them and they will reject his appeals.
His first talk in Brussels was
a profoundly wrong bashing of Germany to push it into buying very expensive LNG from U.S.
fracking producers. Trump, Putin's puppet according to the 'resistance', used the Russian
bogeyman to set the scene:
Well, I have to say, I think it's very sad when Germany makes a massive oil and gas deal
with Russia, where you're supposed to be guarding against Russia, and Germany goes out and
pays billions and billions of dollars a year to Russia. ... So we're protect you against Russia, but they're paying billions of dollars to Russia, and
I think that's very inappropriate. And the former Chancellor of Germany is the head of the
pipeline company that's supplying the gas. Ultimately, Germany will have almost 70 percent
of their country controlled by Russia with natural gas.
So you tell me, is that appropriate? I mean, I've been complaining about this from the
time I got in. It should have never been allowed to have happened. But Germany is totally
controlled by Russia , because they will be getting from 60 to 70 percent of their energy
from Russia and a new pipeline. ... Now, if you look at it, Germany is a captive of Russia because they supply. They got rid of
their coal plants. They got rid of their nuclear. They're getting so much of the oil and
gas from Russia. ... I think trade is wonderful. I think energy is a whole different story. I think energy is a
much different story than normal trade. And you have a country like Poland that won't
accept the gas . You take a look at some of the countries -- they won't accept it, because
they don't want to be captive to Russia. But Germany, as far as I'm concerned, is captive
to Russia, because it's getting so much of its energy from Russia. So we're supposed to
protect Germany, but they're getting their energy from Russia. Explain that. And it can't
be explained -- you know that.
Trump was talking about the Nordstream II pipeline which will supply Germany and other
European countries with natural gas from Russia.
It is indeed hard to believe that western european governments would agree to what
Christopher Black calls a "US shakedown". Except that they have been doing so since 1949.
It is important to remember that the US Embassy exerts at least as much influence on the
government as Parliament does. And that Parliaments are full of agents of the the US empire,
in some cases they are actually on the payroll, many more are either US educated, marinated
in the imperialist ideology or in the service of corporations which know that the Empire is
the final guarantor of their survival and capable of crushing them with ease.
That having been said, things are changing, The imperialists cling to power only by exerting
the most extraordinary, and unsustainable, pressure. An example of which is the ludicrously
over-wrought campaign against the left in the UK being waged by the Israeli Embassy, with the
assistance of the entire MSM.
B's arguments are correct but it will take a mobilised and politically conscious public
opinion to impose them on governments full of people who see themselves as Washington's
servants and expect to be rewarded one day for being loyal to the US and for betraying their
countrymen and, of course, women.
The question is if Europe will truly continue to bark and bite at the deep state or if this
is all just for show and they'll eventually capitulate. I'm worried that this is nothing more
than political theatre. I'm not expecting much from the Europeans. But we'll see.
Europe buying LNG from the US just makes no sense at all. Aside from the cost, LNG is
difficult to transport and work with; the whole idea is just nuts, especially considering the
quantities involved. In addition, Russian gas is plentiful and cheap, so to expect Europe not
to use it is also nuts.
Could it be that Trump fully understands this and the hidden agenda is to get out of NATO and
bring home the troops?
Russia is a near neighbor to Germany. Commerce between relatively close countries is the
normal course of events, so what is Trump suggesting, a 1970's style energy embargo on
Russia? Depriving Russia the opportunity all trade with her neighbors 'because we said so' is
no better than a blockade.
One of these days, my country is going to get a taste of, 'no soup for you' and we will be
screaming like stuck pigs.
Yes, I am obsessed w/Sean Hannity
It's his earnest, self-righteous, mind numbingly idiotic voice, I'm hypnotized. Ollie
North was on his show and they were going on about 'Iran's' saber rattling by threatening to
close the Straits of Hormuz. Sean rattled off how the EU would wake up and it would be the
end of Iran's belligerence.
He neglected to mention that this 'threat' is only coming after our act of war by actively
trying to cut off all of Iran's oil exports which is no better than a naval blockade.
Much can be gleaned from
this NATO Defence Expenditure pdf with special attention given to graphs 5, 6
& 7. Since the dissolution of the USSR, military spending as share of GDP by EU &
Canada decreased about 50% as shown in Graph 5. It should also be noted that the demand made
by the Outlaw US Empire for EU NATO members to increase their wastage of monies on military
equipment began with Obama in 2015, with compliance noted by the graphs in 2016. When Obama
gave his orders, very little squawking was heard from EU/Canada governments, although it was
quite different from the public. Of course, EU/Canada are caught in a trap of their own
design--Russia's quite obviously not the "aggressive" nation that must be defended against
using all necessary means as promoted by Russophobic Media Propaganda as they all trade and
benefit from commercial interactions; thus, bean counters see NATO as a wastage of vital,
finite monies that ought to be spent on productive endeavors advancing the human condition.
In national legislatures: "Russia's a growing threat to humanity!!--BUT--No, I'm voting
against any increase in military spending as there's no need for it."
European members of NATO don't need such an organization. If they were to join the Russian
and Chinese enterprises to unite Eurasia into a common economic zone, then the need for NATO
would become indefensible. And their finally becoming independent of the Outlaw US Empire's
diktats would provide the impetus required to finally solve the status of Palestine and
reaffirmation of the paramountcy of International Law as a greatly expanded Multipolar Order
would be established. The United Nations might actually begin to function as designed.
Is Trump trying to push NATO apart by injecting it with a dose of American Chaos? Force
EU/Canada to declare their independence from the Outlaw US Empire for numerous reasons? All
of which would force the contraction of the Overseas element of the Empire and install an
actual defense policy, not one aiming to control the world? Is this Trump's way to force a
Neocon retreat?
Meanwhile, China charms Arabia
"Under the radar,..., the eighth ministerial meeting of the China-Arab States Cooperation
Forum (CASCF), established in 2004, sailed on in Beijing, hosted by President Xi Jinping."
Please note the article's citing of new demands made to Iraq by the Outlaw US Empire, which
has their roots in Trump's appraisal of the situation.
I'd say this is why you do not mix a military alliance with politics. Nor allow federal
presidents to command and represent an army. Trump's retarded bullshit aside the USA
shouldn't be holding committee meetings with allies without an war. An alliance shouldn't be
considered active during peacetime. An ally is a figment of political imagination until
military necessity requires it in actuality. Historically and currently a military alliance
is treated as a contract for warmongering against an outnumbered enemy while at peace or at
war. Which is why honorable people (currently very few) eschew alliances or non-aggression
agreements until they become a defensive requirement. If President Trump want's to crash NATO
with no survivor's, more power to him.
The bright side of Trump bullying is revealing NATO astronomical hypocrisy as they join
psychotic delusions about Russian menace they refuse to put money where their mouth is and
shamelessly disclose their vassal status begging for American military support for free.
All that knowing well that there is no threat from Russia that cannot be eliminated simply
by good neighborly relation with Russia not by spending $billions on otherwise useless
fraudulent US MIC junk.
Is that nor reverse psychology that is in play here, put up or shut up, let me make deal
with Russia so you do not have to spend on military rediculous sums to match your delusional
rhetorics about Russian threat.
Trump is s gambling man, wants to make money for US MIC on anti Russian lies or make money
for US industry on Russia peace and cooperation truths.
"Stoltenberg: [ ] I think that two World Wars and the Cold War taught us that we are
stronger together than apart.
Trump: But how can you be together when a country is getting its energy from the person
you want protection against or from the group that you want protection?
Stoltenberg: Because we understand that when we stand together, also in dealing with
Russia, we are stronger. I think what we have seen is that --
Trump: No, you're just making Russia richer. You're not dealing with Russia. You're making
Russia richer."
You'd have to be an idiot not to agree with Trump here.
A notable difference between the way Trump treats the likes of Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong Un
- all leaders in their own right - to the way he treats the EU poodles. Zero respect for the
poodles.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jul 11, 2018 6:40:20 PM |
22
"... The big advantage for Germany is that (Nordstream I and Nordstream II] pipelines
do not run through any other country ..."
That's because idiot EU / NATO countries like Denmark, who would gladly accept having the
pipelines pass through their land and maritime territories (and the transit fees that go with
them) if Russian gas were not flowing through them, prefer to support the Nazi whacko
Banderites ruling Ukraine who whine that all Russian gas should transit Ukrainian territory
in deteriorating pipelines. So Denmark and others refuse to host any part of the pipelines at
all.
When Gazprom starts sending all gas through Nordstream I and II and pipelines through the
Black Sea, completely bypassing Ukraine, then that country will be close to bankruptcy.
Denmark and everyone else in the EU and NATO had better be ready to rescue the
Banderites.
Der Speigel 's fact-checking article of Trump's assertions provides some
interesting facts, all in German, which I used Yandex to translate. To counterargue Trump's
most pointed assertion that Germany's a captive of Russia, the author provides this rebuke:
"Russland ist auf den Abnehmer Deutschland angewiesen. Die Deutschen benötigten die
Russen vor allem als Lieferanten für Erdgas." (Russia is dependent on the customer
Germany. The Germans needed the Russians mainly as suppliers of natural gas.) Overall:
"Für Russland ist Deutschland als Handelspartner wichtiger als andersherum. Von allen
deutschen Importen kamen 2017 nur drei Prozent aus Russland - und lediglich zwei Prozent der
Exporte gehen in Putins Reich. Für die Russen war die Bundesrepublik mit einem Anteil
von 8,6 Prozent ihres gesamten Außenhandels der zweitwichtigste Partner hinter China.
Und mehr als zwei Drittel der russischen Exporte nach Deutschland waren Erdgas, Öl und
Steinkohle." (For Russia, Germany is more important as a trading partner than elsewhere. Of
all German imports, only three percent came from Russia in 2017 - and only two percent of
exports go to Putin's Reich. For the Russians, Germany was the second most important Partner
behind China, accounting for 8.6 percent of its total foreign trade. And more than two-thirds
of Russian exports to Germany were natural gas, Oil and coal.)
Clearly, the total trade turnover between Russia and Germany represents just a small
fraction of their totals, and both nations would likely find a replacement if a total embargo
was to ensue.
The US began pressuring countries to forego nuclear power to support the Petro Dollar in
1978. One big reason they deposed the Shah who was planning to go big with nuclear power with
orders for about 20 French and /or German reactors
The TMI accident was likely a false flag run by the newly established FEMA.
If the restrictions on recycling nuclear fuel rods were eliminated there would not be a
disposal problem.
Germanys decision to phase out nuclear makes US happy. Germany will only accept Nord
Stream 2 if it does not bypass Ukraine. This also makes US happy although they would prefer
no Nord Stream 2. As said up thread this is as much about posturing before the Putin meeting
and gaining leverage.
A bit O/T but it appears rare metals needed by US military and tech industries are on the
list of products subject to tarrifs. China basically has a monopoly on these metals so the
only short term purpose is to drive up prices for weapons and tech gadgets which get passed
onto the taxpayer/consumer. In effect the tarrifs are just another revenue source to finance
tax cuts to corporations and the rich.
Longer term of course the tarrifs make mining some of these metals in the US more
feasible, at some cost to the environment , seeing as EPA has been gutted. But for that to
happen the tarrifs need to be more or less a permanent thing. Its not like they dont have
tarrifs on food and clothes from China. Just expanding the revenue base. The middle class
takes the hit in the end, whats left of it anyways
Trump as a used car salesman does not make much sense either. In fact I don't think he can
spell to sense. It telling that he is impervious to the mood in both NATO and the EU.
His middle name should be clueless. He is truly clueless, he will not get an increase in
defense expenditure, it would be political self goal (Hello Engeland, no not football, that's
more like clueless) for any major political party to demand that, the electorate across
Europe are firmly against it. Ohh and who cares about Perfidious Albion, they are not part of
Europe anymore, they are some Islands with bad weather in the North Sea.
Seabird sanctuary ?
Europe hopefully comes to its senses and casts of the American yoke, and fashion its own
defences, based on ITS needs.
thanks b.. informative and interesting comments from everyone too.. thanks..
trump is a hard guy to read in some respects... he is like a blunt object on the one hand,
but he might have some alternative purpose in mind, which would include the meet with trump
in 5 days..
if he wants to get rid of nato, i think he is going about it the right way.. i can't see
why he would though as that wouldn't benefit the mil complex...i can't see the purpose of
nato either way and perhaps it would be best if the poodles let go of having the usa as it's
leader in the 21st century.. consider a different approach... i am not sure what canada and
other western type poodles can do with all this..
@7 karlof1.. thanks for the pepe link... i just don't see the approach - bullying - taken
by the usa to iraq, as working out.. i am listing the demands for others to see
firsthand..
"
1. 30% of all the oil in Iraq should be American-controlled – and it's up to the US do
what it wants with it.
2. Washington must have full access and control of Iraqi banks.
3. All business and trade with Iran must cease right now.
4. The Hashd al-Shaabi, known as People Mobilization Units (PMUs), instrumental in the
victorious fight against Daesh (Islamic State),
must be immediately disbanded."
the usa takes this approach based on weakness, not strength... in fact - if one was to
read trumps comments on the surface here - it is the same thing that b has highlighted in
this post.. again - the usa is not working from a place of strength.. it is like a wild
animal in the last phase of it's life - not good..
Lost in the story is fact it is not new supply of natural gas to Europe. It is new pipe
lines including two others with the sole intent of bypassing Ukraine. Presently near all
Russian natural gas passes through Ukraine on its way to Western Europe and particularly ..
Germany. The Ukraine regime has been reaping the benefit of transmission fees and stealing
billions of cubic meters of gas, on which they also charged transmission fees. This was the
basis behind a recent dispute panel finding in favor of Ukraine and the gas theft. The
Americans and willing European Poodles would very much like to keep the gas flowing through
Naziville where they would maintain a strangle hold. Gazprom, the principle Russian supplier,
more or less said f**K you and formed consortiums to build new pipe lines
@32 So if Germany gets gas through Nordstream they are 'controlled by Russia' but if they
get it via Ukraine they aren't. Seems Nordstream would be good insurance against Ukrainian
meddling. Cheaper too, a very sound business strategy that Trump should appreciate.
"... You don't need to give use Northstream 2. We will build it ourselves. ..."
"... Nordstream II only blocking party is Denmark, and they can and will bypass it at some price, if need be. ..."
"... Almost all of the countries that Nord Stream 2 passes through have signed on to its construction. The only holdout is Denmark. In response Gazprom has said it will reroute the pipeline through international waters. There is nothing the US can do about that and Denmark can say goodbye to its share of transit fees. ..."
"... A lot of that sort of crap was being pumped out by trolls and regulars alike a few weeks back on Putin, Nutty and SW Syria. Putin had done a deal and was giving SW Syria to nutty cetra cetra. Like Putin and Xi, Iran and others are too stupid to realize they have to work together against US attacks. ..."
"... Russia has to defend Iran. There is no chance that Putin will sell it to Trump. Once again we see the dreaded "US can do anything" disease arising. In fact US options are limited and evaporating. ..."
"... The most likely outcome of the 'summit'is a renewal or strengthening of old agreements on arms control and much high sounding chatter: in geopolitics the die is cast. ..."
Almost all of the countries that Nord Stream 2 passes through have signed on to its
construction. The only holdout is Denmark. In response Gazprom has said it will reroute the
pipeline through international waters. There is nothing the US can do about that and Denmark
can say goodbye to its share of transit fees.
Also Crimea is non-negotiable for Russia. It is Russian territory irrespective of what
happens.
A lot of that sort of crap was being pumped out by trolls and regulars alike a few weeks back
on Putin, Nutty and SW Syria. Putin had done a deal and was giving SW Syria to nutty cetra
cetra. Like Putin and Xi, Iran and others are too stupid to realize they have to work
together against US attacks.
Russia has to defend Iran. There is no chance that Putin will sell it to Trump.
Once again we see the dreaded "US can do anything" disease arising. In fact US options are
limited and evaporating.
Incidentally it is very easy and probably wise to promise the US, in June, not to buy oil in
November. It costs nothing and fits into bazaar bargaining strategies.
The most likely outcome of the 'summit'is a renewal or strengthening of old agreements on
arms control and much high sounding chatter: in geopolitics the die is cast.
Antony C. Sutton, ´Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution', 1974 New Rochelle,
N.Y.
describes how Wall Street supported bolsjewism in order to prevent that German, suppose also
Dutch and other, trade, with Russia was resumed.
WII and the aftermath created the Atlantic alliance.
Just yesterday Pieter Hoekstra, USA ambassador in the Netherlands, stated that Russia should
be punished for MH17 by more sanctions, no new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
What he did not say that this implies our buying of USA gas, 20% more expensive. The MH17
show, in my opinion is run like the Sept 11 show. Or even the holocaust show, constant
reminders.
The USA fear about Russia and the EU member states seems to be twofold:
more trade with Russia, and the railway connections with China, threaten to turn the USA
into an economic backwater
Precisely. US could eventually (20-30 years from now) turn into a country similar to many
Latin American countries: rich in resources, demographically messy and ungovernable, weak
infrastructure, but above all remote and quasi-provincial.
The 'Atlanticist' project is meant to forestall the provincial Latin American future.
Washington does have some tools: dollar domination, military force, Hollywood, technology.
But none of those are necessarily sustainable without also actively messing up
Euro-Russia-China economic convergence. It might require a war to delay the inevitable slow
descend into a backwater across the Atlantic.
"... Just yesterday Pieter Hoekstra, USA ambassador in the Netherlands, stated that Russia should be punished for MH17 by more sanctions, no new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. What he did not say that this implies our buying of USA gas, 20% more expensive. The MH17 show, in my opinion is run like the Sept 11 show. Or even the holocaust show, constant reminders. ..."
"... The USA fear about Russia and the EU member states seems to be twofold: (1) more trade with Russia makes subjugation of Russia impossible; (2) more trade with Russia, and the railway connections with China, threaten to turn the USA into an economic backwater ..."
Antony C. Sutton, ´Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution', 1974 New Rochelle, N.Y.
describes how Wall Street supported bolshevism in order to prevent that German, suppose also Dutch and other, trade, with Russia
was resumed.
WWII and the aftermath created the Atlantic alliance.
Just yesterday Pieter Hoekstra, USA ambassador in the Netherlands, stated that Russia should be punished for MH17 by more
sanctions, no new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. What he did not say that this implies our buying of USA gas, 20% more expensive.
The MH17 show, in my opinion is run like the Sept 11 show. Or even the holocaust show, constant reminders.
The USA fear about Russia and the EU member states seems to be twofold: (1) more trade with Russia makes subjugation of
Russia impossible; (2) more trade with Russia, and the railway connections with China, threaten to turn the USA into an economic
backwater
One and a half years after Russia and Turkey signed a deal to build the strategic "Turkish
Stream" gas
pipeline in October 2016 , putting an end to a highly contentious period in Russia-Turkish
relation which in late 2015 hit rock bottom after the NATO-member state shot down a Russian jet
over Syria, on Saturday Russian state energy giant Gazprom and the Turkish government
reached a deal on the construction of the land-based part of the Turkish Stream branch that
will bring Russian gas to European consumers.
According
to Reuters , the two counterparts signed a protocol that would allow the construction,
which was stalled by a legal rift over gas prices, to go forward. Gazprom and Turkey's
state-owned BOTAS agreed on the terms and conditions of the project, Gazprom said in a statement ,
adding that the deal "allows to move to practical steps for the implementation of the project."
The actual construction would be carried out by a joint venture called TurkAkim Gaz Tasima
which will be owned by Gazprom and BOTAS in equal shares, Gazprom said.
Earlier on Saturday, Turkish president Erdogan said that Gazprom and BOTAS resolved a
long-running legal dispute over import prices in 2015-2016, and as a result Turkey would gain
$1 billion as part of the gas-price settlement reached with Gazprom, in which Turkey and the
Russian natgas giant agreed on a 10.25% price discount for gas supplied by Russia in 2015 and
2016.
"We agreed on a 10.25% reduction in the price of natural gas in 2015-2016," Erdogan
announced while speaking at a rally on Saturday. "We got our discount. We get about $ 1 billion
worth of our rights before the election," the Turkish President said, as cited by Anadolu
Agency.
BOTAS had refused to approve the building of the land-based part of the pipeline until the
import price issue was resolved. Until now, it only permitted Gazprom to construct the undersea
part of the line. The construction is currently underway.
Russia and Turkey officially agreed on the project, which consists of two branches, in
October 2016. The first branch will deliver gas to Turkish consumers, while the second one will
bring it to the countries in southern and south-western Europe. The European leg is expected to
decrease Russia's dependence on transit through Ukraine. Each of the lines has a maximum
capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters a year.
Gazprom finished the construction of the deep-water part of the first line of the Turkish
Stream in April. The first Russian gas could start flowing through both legs of the Turkish
Stream by December 2019.
The greenlighting of the Turkish Stream project is sure to infuriate the US which previously
announced it was
considering sanctions of European firms that would participate in the Nothern Stream
Russian gas pipeline.
President Trump went as far as to threaten
Angela Merkel two weeks ago , telling her to either drop the Russian gas pipeline or the
trade war with the US was set to begin.
How Europe reacts to US threats involving the Northern Stream and, soon, the Turkish Stream,
will determine whether Europe will once again find itself a subservient vassal state to US
military and energy lobbying powers, or if Brussels will side with Putin in this growing
conflict, resulting in an unprecedented breach within the so-called " democratic west. "
[May 27, 2018] Turning on Russia by Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould
"... Coming Next, Part 2: The post WWII global strategy of the neocons has been shaped chiefly by Russophobia against the Soviet Union and now Russia ..."
"... * Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould are the authors of Invisible History: Afghanistan's Untold Story , Crossing Zero The AfPak War at the Turning Point of American Empire and The Voice . Visit their websites at invisiblehistory and grailwerk .com ..."
In this first of a two-part series, Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould trace the origins
of the neoconservative targeting of Russia.
By Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould April 29.2018
The German newsmagazine Der Spiegel last September reported
that, "Stanley Fischer, the 73–year-old vice chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is
familiar with the decline of the world's rich. He spent his childhood and youth in the British
protectorate of Rhodesia before going to London in the early 1960s for his university studies.
There, he experienced first-hand the unravelling of the British Empire Now an American citizen,
Fischer is currently witnessing another major power taking its leave of the world stage the
United States is losing its status as a global hegemonic power, he said recently. The U.S.
political system could take the world in a very dangerous direction "
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the creation of the so called Wolfowitz
Doctrine in 1992 during the administration of George Herbert Walker Bush, the United States
claimed the mantle of the world's first and only. Unipower with the intention of crushing any
nation or system that would oppose it in the future. The New World Order, foreseen just a few
short years ago, becomes more disorderly by the day, made worse by varying degrees of
incompetence and greed emanating from Berlin, London, Paris and Washington.
As a further sign of the ongoing seismic shocks rocking America's claim to leadership, by
the time Fischer's interview appeared in the online version of the Der Spiegel , he had
already announced his resignation as vice chair of the Federal Reserve -- eight months ahead of
schedule. If anyone knows about the decline and fall of empires it is the "globalist" and
former Bank of Israel president, Stanley Fischer. Not only did he experience the unravelling of
the British Empire as a young student in London, he directly assisted in the wholesale
dismantling of the Soviet Empire during the 1990s.
As an admitted product of the British Empire and point man for its long term imperial aims,
that makes Fischer not just empire's Angel of Death, but its rag and bone man.
Alongside a handful of Harvard economists led by Jonathan Hay, Larry Summers, Andrei
Shleifer, and Jeffry Sachs, in the "Harvard Project," plus Anatoly Chubais, the chief Russian
economic adviser, Fischer helped throw 100 million Russians into poverty overnight –
privatizing, or as some would say piratizing – the Russian economy. Yet, Americans never
got the real story because a slanted anti-Russia narrative covered the true nature of the
robbery from beginning to end.
As described by public policy scholar and anthropologist Janine R. Wedel in her 2009 book
Shadow Elite: "Presented in the West as a fight between enlightenment Reformers trying
to move the economy forward through privatization, and retrograde Luddites who opposed them,
this story misrepresented the facts. The idea or goal of privatization was not controversial,
even among communists the Russian Supreme Soviet, a communist body, passed two laws laying the
groundwork for privatization. Opposition to privatization was rooted not in the idea itself but
in the particular privatization program that was implemented, the opaque way in which it
was put into place, and the use of executive authority to bypass the parliament."
Intentionally set up to fail for Russia and the Russian people under the cover of a false
narrative, she continues "The outcome rendered privatization 'a de facto fraud,' as one
economist put it, and the parliamentary committee that had judged the Chubais scheme to 'offer
fertile ground for criminal activity' was proven right."
If Fischer, a man who helped bring about a de facto criminal-privatization-fraud to
post-empire Russia says the U.S. is on a dangerous course, the time has arrived for post-empire
Americans to ask what role he played in putting the U.S. on that dangerous course. Little known
to Americans is the blunt force trauma Fischer and the "prestigious" Harvard Project delivered
to Russia under the leadership of Boris Yeltsin during the 1990s. According to The American Conservative's James Carden "As the Center for Economic and Policy
Research noted back in 2011 'the IMF's intervention in Russia during Fischer's tenure led to
one of the worst losses in output in history, in the absence of war or natural disaster.'
Indeed, one Russian observer compared the economic and social consequences of the IMF's
intervention to what one would see in the aftermath of a medium-level nuclear attack."
Neither do most Americans know that it was President Jimmy Carter's national security
advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski's 1970s grand plan for the conquest of the Eurasian heartland that
boomeranged to terrorize Europe and America in the 21 st century. Brzezinski spent
much of his life undermining the Communist Soviet Union and then spent the rest of it worrying
about its resurgence as a Czarist empire under Vladimir Putin. It might be unfair to say that
hating Russia was his only obsession. But a common inside joke during his tenure as the
President's top national security officer was that he couldn't find Nicaragua on a map.
If anyone provided the blueprint for the United States to rule in a unipolar world following
the Soviet Union's collapse it was Brzezinski. And if anyone could be said to represent the
debt driven financial system that fueled America's post-Vietnam Imperialism, it's Fischer. His
departure should have sent a chill down every neoconservative's spine. Their dream of a New
World Order has once again ground to a halt at the gates of Moscow.
Whenever the epitaph for the abbreviated American century is written it will be sure to
feature the iconic role the neoconservatives played in hastening its demise. From the chaos
created by Vietnam they set to work restructuring American politics, finance and foreign policy
to their own purposes. Dominated at the beginning by Zionists and Trotskyists, but directed by
the Anglo/American establishment and their intelligence elites, the neoconservatives' goal,
working with their Chicago School neoliberal partners, was to deconstruct the nation-state
through cultural co-optation and financial subversion and to project American power abroad. So
far they have been overwhelmingly successful to the detriment of much of the
world.
From the end of the Second World War through the 1980s the focus of this pursuit was on the
Soviet Union, but since the Soviet collapse in 1991, their focus has been on dismantling any
and all opposition to their global dominion.
Pentagon Capitalism
Shady finance, imperial misadventures and neoconservatism go hand in hand. The CIA's
founders saw themselves as partners in this enterprise and the defense industry welcomed them
with open arms. McGill University economist R.T. Naylor, author of 1987's Hot Money and the
Politics of Debt , described how "Pentagon Capitalism" had made the Vietnam War
possible by selling the Pentagon's debt to the rest of the world.
"In effect, the US Marines had replaced Meyer Lansky's couriers , and the European central
banks arranged the 'loan-back,'" Naylor writes. "When the mechanism was explained to the late
[neoconservative] Herman Kahn – lifeguard of the era's chief 'think tank' and a man who
popularized the notion it was possible to emerge smiling from a global conflagration – he
reacted with visible delight. Kahn exclaimed excitedly, 'We've pulled off the biggest ripoff in
history! We've run rings around the British Empire.'" In addition to their core of
ex-Trotskyist intellectuals early neoconservatives could count among their ranks such
establishment figures as James Burnham, father of the Cold War Paul Nitze, Senator Daniel
Patrick Moynihan, Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson, Jeane Kirkpatrick and Brzezinski himself.
From the beginning of their entry into the American political mainstream in the 1970s it was
known that their emergence could imperil democracy in America and yet Washington's more
moderate gatekeepers allowed them in without much of a fight.
Peter Steinfels' 1979 classic The
Neoconservatives: The men who are changing America's politics begins with these fateful
words. "THE PREMISES OF THIS BOOK are simple. First, that a distinct and powerful political
outlook has recently emerged in the United States. Second, that this outlook, preoccupied with
certain aspects of American life and blind or complacent towards others, justifies a politics
which, should it prevail, threatens to attenuate and diminish the promise of American
democracy."
But long before Steinfels' 1979 account, the neoconservative's agenda of inserting their own
interests ahead of America's was well underway, attenuating U.S. democracy, undermining
détente and angering America's NATO partners that supported it. According to the
distinguished State Department Soviet specialist Raymond Garthoff, détente had been
under attack by right-wing and military-industrial forces ( led by Senator "Scoop"
Jackson ) from its inception. But America's ownership of that policy underwent a shift
following U.S. intervention on behalf of Israel during the 1973 October war. Garthoff writes in
his detailed volume on American-Soviet relations Détente
and Confrontation , "To the allies the threat [to Israel] did not come from the Soviet
Union, but from unwise actions by the United States, taken unilaterally and without
consultation. The airlift [of arms] had been bad enough. The U.S. military alert of its forces
in Europe was too much."
In addition to the crippling Arab oil embargo that followed, the crisis of confidence in
U.S. decision-making nearly produced a mutiny within NATO. Garthoff continues, "The United
States had used the alert to convert an Arab-Israeli conflict, into which the United States had
plunged, into a matter of East-West confrontation. Then it had used that tension as an excuse
to demand that Europe subordinate its own policies to a manipulative American diplomatic gamble
over which they had no control and to which they had not even been privy, all in the name of
alliance unity."
In the end the U.S. found common cause with its Cold War Soviet enemy by imposing a
cease-fire accepted by both Egypt and Israel thereby confirming the usefulness of
détente. But as related by Garthoff this success triggered an even greater effort by
Israel's "politically significant supporters" in the U.S. to begin opposing any
cooperation with the Soviet Union, at all.
Garthoff writes, "The United States had pressed Israel into doing precisely what the Soviet
Union (as well as the United States) had wanted: to halt its advance short of complete
encirclement of the Egyptian Third Army east of Suez Thus they [Israel's politically
significant supporters] saw the convergence of American-Soviet interests and effective
cooperation in imposing a cease-fire as a harbinger of greater future cooperation by the two
superpowers in working toward a resolution of the Israeli-Arab-Palestinian problem."
What happens when a country decides to decouple itself from the US/Saudi axis of evilglobinfo
freexchange
T he role of Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East chaos is quite well known . Recall that
in a letter
of the Podesta email series, John Podesta admitted that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia we re
helping ISIS. Podesta also mentioned that the US should exercise pressure to these countries in
order to stop doing it: " ... we need to use our diplomatic and more traditional
intelligence assets to bring pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are
providing clandestine financial and logistic support to ISIL and other radical Sunni groups in
the region. "
Of course Hillary Clinton wouldn't do anything about this problem too, as in another
letter of the Podesta email series, it was revealed that Bill Clinton was receiving
"expensive gifts" from the Qataris!
As reported by Antimedia , in 2009 Qatar
proposed a pipeline to run through Syria and Turkey to export Saudi gas. Assad rejected the
proposal and instead formed an agreement with Iran and Iraq to construct a pipeline to the
European market that would cut Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar out of the route entirely.
Since, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have been staunch backers of the opposition seeking to
topple Assad. Collectively, they have invested billions of dollars, lent weapons, encouraged
the spread of fanatical ideology, and helped smuggle fighters across their borders.
The Iran-Iraq pipeline will strengthen Iranian influence in the region and undermine their
rival, Saudi Arabia -- the other main OPEC producer. Given the ability to transport gas to
Europe without going through Washington's allies, Iran will hold the upper-hand and will be
able to negotiate agreements that exclude the U.S. dollar completely.
Yet, less than a year ago, a crisis erupted between 'unholy' allies, apparently because Qatar
has chosen to change camp and proceed into a deeper approach with Iran.
As reported by Guardian , Saudi Arabia and its allies have issued a threatening 13-point
ultimatum to Qatar as the price for lifting a two-week trade and diplomatic embargo of the
country, in a marked escalation of the Gulf's worst diplomatic dispute in decades. The onerous
list of demands includes stipulations that Doha close the broadcaster al-Jazeera,
drastically scale back cooperation with Iran , remove Turkish troops from Qatar's soil,
end contact with groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and submit to monthly external
compliance checks. Qatar has been given 10 days to comply with the demands or face unspecified
consequences.
Then, apparently, Rex
Tillerson tried to persuade Qatar to stay in the unholy alliance and move away from
Iran a day after wrapping up discussions with the king of Saudi Arabia and other officials from
Arab countries lined up against Qatar.
We can tell now that Qatar has not changed stance and chosen to continue its approach with the
winning alliance in the Syrian battlefield. We have the first signs showing that the US empire
and its allies in the Middle East will move against Qatar, beginning with a typical first step:
propaganda war.
A Pentagon "propagandist," who previously headed a company that was paid half a billion dollars
to produce fake terrorist videos in Iraq, was hired by a Dubai based company to create a film accusing Qatar of links to terrorism , the Bureau of
Investigative Journalism has revealed.
Charles Andreae, the CEO of Andreae & Associates which was contracted to produce the film,
used to work for PR firm Bell Pottinger, the UK PR firm that was payed $540 million dollars to
create fake terrorist videos in Iraq.
The firm was employed to produce the anti-Qatari film amidst a diplomatic row in which the
Saudi and UAE governments cut ties with Doha, which it accused of supporting terrorism. Qatar
has strongly denied the accusation and accused its neighbours of fabricating stories. US
intelligence agencies have since confirmed that the UAE orchestrated the hacking of Qatari
government news and social media sites to justify its unprecedented attack against Qatar.
According to the Bureau, Andreae was given over $500,000 to produce a six-part film linking
Qatar with global terrorism. The film, entitled "Qatar: A Dangerous Alliance," features a
number of neo-conservative pundits making the UAE and Saudi case against Qatar in a 37-minute
video.
Washington's double standards and hypocrisy are quite evident in this case too. After this
crisis between allies erupted, a number of US officials immediately launched a series of
statements through which they depicted Qatar as the sole supporter of terrorist groups in the
Middle East. Again, Saudi Arabia, the most authoritarian regime in the region and probably the
biggest supporter of jihadist extremists, was miraculously vanished from their radar and,
naturally, the radar of the Western corporate media.
In case Qatar will not compromise and keep walking the path towards decoupling itself from the
US/Saudi axis of evil, the next steps will be a new series of upgraded, Iranian-type sanctions,
or even a military invasion as the last option. The only thing that can save Qatar for now is
the fact that it hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East .
"The US is looking for sales markets. We can understand this, and we are prepared to take
effort to ensure this gas reaches Germany easier. Presently, however, it remains much more
expensive than the gas delivered via the pipeline," the minister told ARD.
In addition, if the US does not change its tactics of behaviour and continues thinking only
of its economic interests, then Europe will act similarly, the minister added.
Earlier, Us officials said that the United Stats may impose sanctions on the companies
involved in the implementation of the Nord Stream 2
project. US Assistant Secretary of State Sandra Oudkirk said that Washington could consider
retaliatory measures within the framework of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions
Act. She explained the US position as follows: the construction of the gas pipeline will
strengthen Europe's dependence on the Russian natural gas.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany regards the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as
a safe economic project for Europe.
Nord Stream is an offshore natural gas pipeline from Vyborg in the Russian Federation to
Greifswald in Germany that is owned and operated by Nord Stream AG. The project includes two
parallel lines. The first line was laid by May 2011 and was inaugurated on 8 November 2011. The
second line was laid in 2011-2012 and was inaugurated on 8 October 2012. At 1,222 kilometres
(759 mi) in length, it is the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world, surpassing the Langeled
pipeline. It has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic metres (1.9 trillion cubic feet), but
its capacity is planned to be doubled to 110 billion cubic metres (3.9 trillion cubic feet) by
2019, by laying two additional lines.
Sandra Oudkirk, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Energy,
has just threatened to sanction the Europeans if they continue with the Nord Stream 2
pipeline project to bring gas in from Russia across the Baltic Sea. That country is also seen
by the US as an adversary and its approach is by and large the same – to issue orders for
Europe to adopt a confrontational policy, doing as it is told without asking too many
questions.
Iran and Nord Stream 2 unite Moscow and Brussels in their opposition to this diktat. On May
17, Iran
signed a provisional free-trade-zone agreement with a Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union
(EEU) that seeks to increase the current levels of trade valued at $2.7 billion. The deal
lowers or abolishes customs duties. It also establishes a three-year process for reaching a
permanent trade agreement. If Iran becomes a member of the group, it would expand its economic
horizons beyond the Middle Eastern region. So, Europe and Russia are in the same boat, both
holding talks with Iran on economic cooperation.
In their March 15
letter , 39 US senators
called on the Treasury and State Departments to utilize all the sanction tools at their
disposal to fight the Nord Stream 2 project to bring cheap Russian gas to Europe. On March 29,
US Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman told Russia's RBK TV that he cannot rule out the
possibility that Russian assets in America could be seized over the Skripal case. If Washington
goes that far, it will be pure highway robbery. And the response will not be long in coming.
That interview took place right after the British parliament had
announced an investigation into some money-laundering schemes allegedly associated with
Russia. The UK government has unveiled its
"Fusion Doctrine" to counter what it's calling Russian propaganda.
The US policy of making Europeans bow to pressure has been largely successful. The leading
European powers -- the UK, Germany and France – --
are pushing to force the EU to impose new sanctions on Iran, in order to persuade the US
not to pull out from the Iran nuclear deal. This is a last-minute attempt to keep the agreement
in effect, as it is widely expected that President Trump will not certify it in May. Europeans
may bow to American pressure in a bid to appease Washington, but Russia is also a party to the
agreement, which cannot be scuttled without Moscow's consent. Adding additional conditions will
violate the terms of the deal. It won't be supported internationally. If new Iran sanctions are
introduced unilaterally by the West, the issue will become a bone of contention that will
further worsen relations with Moscow.
"... How about the West which has been trying to build a gas pipeline through Syria into Turkey to supply Europe with gas and break Russia's monopoly of European gas supplies. Don't believe me read the Doha agreement where the west recognised the Syrian rebels, this pipeline was a pre requisite for that recognition. ..."
"... And why would Assad who is winning the war do the one thing that would give America and other western countries the chance to get involved because of outrageous moral indignation. Assad and Outing really aren't that stupid. ..."
How about the West which has been trying to build a gas pipeline through Syria into
Turkey to supply Europe with gas and break Russia's monopoly of European gas supplies. Don't
believe me read the Doha agreement where the west recognised the Syrian rebels, this pipeline
was a pre requisite for that recognition.
Israel? which is not happy with Iran and Lebanon having a presence in Syria, worried that
America was withdrawing.
AlQaeda or the Syrian Rebels, many are both who are losing the war and this is a last
desperate attempt to drag in America and the west?
You've also got Turkey and the Kurds (the Kurds were abandoned by the West after they had
fulfilled their useful purpose), both also players in the region but I can't see a motive
here.
And why would Assad who is winning the war do the one thing that would give America
and other western countries the chance to get involved because of outrageous moral
indignation. Assad and Outing really aren't that stupid.
Any or all of the above could be the true motivation. I am no fan of Assad, Putin, or
Trump or May (or the Blair clone Macron) but the question you have to ask yourself is who
gains from this? And is. this in the interests of a resolution to a conflict, to your safety
or is it something else?
I suggest that Russia act as "marginal producer" and refuse to sell oil,
gas or raw petroleum products for less than double the price of other
suppliers.
All of a sudden... thing will change.
After the treatment Russia has gotten for the past year or more, they
are more than justified to adopt this policy.
What's going on?
Read this:
"In late March, the U.S. State Department warned European corporations that
they will likely face penalties if they participate in the construction of
Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, on the grounds that "the project
undermines energy security in Europe"
The Nord Stream 2 project and the
denial of pipelines through Syria territory is what's eating at the zio-cons.
This is power politics and Russia / China are too much of a threat.
The Russian central bank opened its first overseas office in Beijing
on March 14, marking a step forward in forging a Beijing-Moscow alliance
to bypass the US dollar in the global monetary system, and to phase-in a
gold-backed standard of trade.
Apr 3 2017 - Europe approves Nordstream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to
Germany
April 6 2017 - need to attack Syria.
Coincidentally, with a new government a gas pipelin can be run from
Qatar to Europe and cut-off Russian gas revenue.
*Three Mediterranean EU countries and Israel agreed on Monday to
continue pursuing the development of a gas pipeline ... EU countries and
Israel ... April 3, 2017 ...*
EU, Israel agree to develop Eastern Mediterranean gas pipeline
The Optics of the Inter National Geo Political Crises would suggest
that The Criminal Oligarch Cabal Bankster Intelligence Deep State Crime
Syndicate are going "All In."
The petroyuan project is the key. It will smash the petrodollar zio-world.
Saddam Hussien thought of doing that in the 80's by consolidating
Arab oil into a basket of currencies backed by gold. The problem for
him was he was a disposable puppet and not able to defend that
project. China and Russia are a different matter. It's driving the
zios batty.
And, the Yuan is now in the IMF basket of SDR's. Ultimately, the
Petro Dollar will meet its demise & it will be decided by which is
the cleanest, dirtiest shirt to put on among the SDR's.
"... I think the only that would really cause the Russians serious economic hardship at this point would be a total EU embargo on Russian oil/natgas. That, of course, would cause the rest of Europe a fair amount of hardship, too, as they would then have to pay 3 or 4 times as much for frack-gas from the US. ..."
I think the only that would really cause the Russians serious economic hardship at this
point would be a total EU embargo on Russian oil/natgas. That, of course, would cause the
rest of Europe a fair amount of hardship, too, as they would then have to pay 3 or 4 times as
much for frack-gas from the US.
Of course, oil/gas being fungible, the EU in such an eventuality would buy higher priced
gas/oil from us or someone and the Russians would just end up selling to other entities.
Whatever we sell to Europe is fuel we can't sell to others and it's not like our export
market is infinitely expandable. The EU has a huge need for natural gas which it mostly gets
from Russia via pipeline. Even if the US had that much surplus capacity, it would take years
to come up with the means to export that much LNG..
Hagios | Apr 11, 2018 8:50:17 AM |
58 I think that the read target here is the Nord Stream II pipeline. They're currently
unwilling to cancel it out of economic considerations, but they think that they could get away
with cancelling it if NATO attacks Syria and Russia responds with "unprovoked aggression."
NATO's attack IMO will be just large enough that Russia has to respond, then Trump and co. will
cease further military action and continue with economic warfare.
Transit of Russian natural gas via Ukraine will be reduced to just about 10-12 billion cubic
meters annually after the completion of two new pipelines -- Turkish Stream and Nord Stream 2.
That's what Gazprom's chief executive Alexei Miller told a Russian TV channel yesterday, confirming Kiev's
fears that Nord Stream 2 will deprive it of a lot of income in the form of transit fees.
The significance of the new figure can easily be seen when compared with the transit
quantities for last month: Gazprom sent
8.1 billion cubic meters of gas via Russia's eastern neighbor in March, a 21.3-percent
increase on the year. In other words, when Turkish Stream and Nord Stream 2 are ready, Ukraine
will receive something like a 12th of its current annual gas transit revenues from Gazprom.
This is reason enough for Kiev to be so vocally against Nord Steam 2, but unfortunately for
Ukraine, Germany is just as vocally supportive of the project, of which it will be the biggest
beneficiary. The expanded Nord Stream pipeline will have a capacity of 110
billion cubic meters annually.
Still, Miller said, not all transit via Ukraine will be suspended. "We are not saying we
will stop entire transit via Ukraine, since there are neighboring countries that border Ukraine
on the side of Europe. Naturally, supplies to these European countries will continue via
Ukraine."
While the news is bad for Ukraine, it makes sense for Russia as European countries eagerly
seek alternatives to Russian gas, including the "neighboring countries that border Ukraine,"
notably Poland. Yet Germany is by far Gazprom's biggest client in Europe and Russian gas is the
cheapest for Europe's largest economy, hence the support for a project seen as controversial by
the European Commission.
Turkish Stream, for its part, will send Russian gas to the European part of Turkey up to the
border with Greece, to supply gas to southeastern Europe. Its capacity is much smaller than
Nord Stream's, but still larger than the future transit via Ukraine, at 15.75
billion cubic meters of gas.
Russian elite already views May's government as bandits, who staged this despicable provocation. So stakes for British elite are
very high.
And the way May government tried to capitalize on this "poisoning" is really like going "all in". May clearly went what French call
"va bank". Reckless statement of Johnson, who is a very weak diplomat, but no fool, if a clear testament that they expect to prevail
with pretty weak cards. With ultimate reliance on power of the USA to secure favorable outcome.
Looks more and more that this is a part of Russiagate, or color revolution against Trump, however you want to call the effort: the
collusion between the intelligence heads of the Obama administration with British intelligence to oust President Trump.
The Russian Foreign Ministry is now openly pointing the possibility of a UK intelligence involvement. That sheds a very bad light
on EU vassals who without any questioning and with any proof immediately fell into line behind Theresa May.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry even said this was a tool used by the Europeans and the United States to try to get unity at a point
when they were completely disunified. And this is the old geopolitical game, that in order to create unity you create a war, and then
everybody has to fall into line before attacking Iran.
Compare with Ron Paul views on this incident: www.youtube.com
Notable quotes:
"... The UK foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, in a speech late on Wednesday waxed lyrical about how the Skripal episode represented a turning point in the west's approach to Russia, but his officials are aware that this mood can easily dissipate as other considerations, such as commerce, energy security or the Middle East come into play. ..."
"... The UK will try to push for further measures against Russia at the June meeting of the EU heads of state. If it is ambitious, it may may challenge German support for Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline from Russia that could put European energy demand at the mercy of Moscow. ..."
That does not mean the crisis will necessarily end there, or that the crisis is contained.
Russia, whose standing among the international community
is badly damaged, is determined to do go further to clear its name, or at least throw up enough chaff so that a chunk of western
public opinion doubts the British intelligence service's account of Skripal's poisoning. Moscow has already suggested a meeting on
Monday of the executive of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to have "an honest conversation" about
the poisoning.
The OPCW is studying samples – provided by the UK – of the novichok nerve agent allegedly used, but does not have the ability
to judge the identity of the person that
placed the agent by the door of Skripal's house . But the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is determined to put the UK
on the defensive and has already claimed that "if our western partners dodge the meeting then it will be further evidence that every
thing that is happened is a provocation".
Russia has also responded to the apparent recovery of Yulia Skripal, who was poisoned alongside her father. She may be able to
provide insights into how the poisoning occurred, or even reveal whether she knows of some other motive by some other non-state actor.
The British intelligence services will be debriefing her as soon as her health permits. It would clearly be a huge embarrassment
for the UK government if it emerged she believed the Russian state was not involved.
As it is, the UK government is aware that some allied leaders, despite the public show of solidarity, face skeptical voters at
home who are either against a confrontation with Vladimir Putin, or expect more convincing proof to be provided.
The UK foreign secretary, Boris Johnson,
in a speech late on Wednesday waxed lyrical about how the Skripal episode represented a turning point in the west's approach
to Russia, but his officials are aware that this mood can easily dissipate as other considerations, such as commerce, energy security
or the Middle East come into play.
The UK will try to push for further measures against Russia at the June meeting of the EU heads of state. If it is ambitious,
it may may challenge German support for Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline from Russia that could put European energy demand at the
mercy of Moscow.
I am not a fan of LNG. If I was a Euro there is no way I would allow LNG in, whether
from Sabetta in Russia or from Sabine Pass in the US.
Being fan or no fan of specific type of energy hardly factors into economic reality of
Europe and coercing it into buying American LNG. If Europe continues to buy Russian gas --
that will be bad news for US. The US, however, may yet succeed in sabotaging Nord Stream II
and thus, in a long run, kill European industrial competitiveness thus opening European
market for US products. At least that is the plan. Here is a small taste of what is at
stake.
Turkish press is reporting that 'TurkStream' , the pipeline to bring natural gas from
Russia to Turkey, is now 80% complete and to be in operation by later this year. It is
expected to deliver close to 16 billion cubic meters per year from Gazprom to Turkish gas
distribution networks. A second phase scheduled for next year will reportedly deliver an
equal amount to Greece and other points in southern Europe.
This is in addition to the existing 'BlueStream' pipeline from Russia to Turkey,
operational since 2005, that also has a 16 billion cubic meter per year throughput.
Why the Western concern about NordStream pipeline but none about TurkStream? Are there no
sanction problems for the Swiss company working with GazProm? Plus I wonder if this is one of
the reasons why Russia has lately become paranoid regarding US Navy FON operations in the
Black Sea?
Why the Western concern about NordStream pipeline but none about TurkStream? Are there no
sanction problems for the Swiss company working with GazProm? Plus I wonder if this is one of
the reasons why Russia has lately become paranoid regarding US Navy FON operations in the
Black Sea?
The main concern has the name Sabetta--it is the port and a hub to a largest Liquid
Natural Gas operation, which also happened to be (in relative terms) next to Europe's LNG
ports. I usually don't do this but I apologize, here is a link to my blog's piece on
that:
LNG is precisely a commodity which is counted by US as a major component in possibly (and
most likely not very probable) US re-industrialization. For that, the US has to sell her LNG
to Europe. This implies removing Russian LNG from the EU market which dwarfs that of Turkey
and some South European nations. Germany, France, UK, Holland among others are the prize
here. Russian LNG must be verboten, in US mind, or at least pushed back. As per FON--it has
nothing to do with FON but has everything to do with:
1. Flag demonstration--that is presence and Fleet In Being.
2. Signals collection from Sevastopol, Novorossyisk and, in general, all Russia's Southern
Military District emitters.
"... When I read: "As X becomes increasingly aggressive, even reckless geopolitically," frankly Russia was not the first country that came to mind. ..."
Yves
here. I trust readers will be able to filter out the new Cold War assumptions in the piece to
focus on the price of Germany's plans. Does anyone have an informed take on how significant the
broader economic impact might be?
By Tim Daiss, an oil markets analyst, journalist and author working out of the
Asia-Pacific region for 12 years who has covered oil, energy markets and geopolitics for
Forbes, Platts, Interfax, NewsBase, Rigzone, and the UK-based Independent (newspaper) as well
as providing energy markets analysis for subscription newsletters. Originally published at
OilPrice
More problems are mounting for Russia's oil and gas sector. This time it's coming from
Germany, which until recently usually gave Russia's energy sector more lead way than the U.S.
or other allies.
But now it seems that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has also had enough. On Monday,
Bloomberg reported that Merkel's government is seeking to build a liquefied
natural gas (LNG) industry in Germany basically from scratch to reduce the nation's dependence
on supplies arriving by pipeline from Russia and Norway.
Merkel backs "all initiatives supporting further diversification of gas supply -- whether
from different regions or means of transporting gas," said German Economy and Energy Ministry
spokeswoman Beate Baron.
The move comes as natural gas resources from the UK and the Netherlands are depleting, and
Germany is forced to rely more on Russian gas. Merkel's newly formed coalition has a "coalition
contract" that among other policies sets out energy agenda including LNG for the next four
years, the Bloomberg reported added.
Germany, for its part, is Europe's largest gas consumer. In
2015, the country consumed 7.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, according to
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. According to the German energy research
group, AG Energiebilanzen, imports account for about 90 percent of Germany's total natural gas
supply, while most imports come from three countries: Russia (40 percent of total imports in
2015), Norway (21 percent) and the Netherlands (29 percent).
Moreover, German companies are participating in Russia's controversial Nord Stream 2
pipeline, an expansion of an existing route for gas to flow from Russia to Europe under the
Baltic Sea. The U.S., Poland and others have recently condemned the pipeline as a threat to
European security.
As Russia becomes increasingly aggressive, even reckless geopolitically, the security threat
to not only the EU but to Germany is apparent, causing the country of some 83 million people to
do an abrupt energy policy about face.
Germany's LNG pivot also comes as a geopolitical storm between the U.K. and Russia
intensifies over an alleged Moscow-orchestrated nerve-agent attack on British soil against what the
BBC called a double spy and his daughter.
British Prime Minister Theresa May retaliated last week by expelling Russian diplomats and
seeking alternatives to Russian gas, including LNG produced at its new Arctic plant, the Yamal
LNG export project. Addressing the UN Security Council last week, the U.K.'s deputy UN
ambassador, Jonathan Allen, accused Russia of breaking its obligations under the Convention on
the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
The U.S. for its part also condemned the nerve agent attack. U.S. ambassador Nikki Haley
said that Washington stood in "absolute solidarity" with Britain, citing the "special
relationship" between the two countries and saying that Washington would "always be there" for
the UK.
Germany's Abrupt LNG Pivot
However, until recently many in Germany accused the U.S., notably President Trump, of using
U.S.-sourced LNG as a geopolitical weapon to challenge Russia's decades' old dominance of
European gas markets -- an accusation that played perfectly into the hands of Russian energy
companies and even Vladimir Putin.
When Trump singed fresh sanctions against Russia's energy sector in August, Uniper -- a
German utility and one of Europe's largest energy firms -- said the new sanctions were an
American economic move as much as a political one.
"The core reason (for the sanctions) is strategic economic interests, meaning the targeted
dominance of the US in energy markets," Uniper CEO Klaus Schaefer told journalists shortly
after Trump signed the sanctions bill. Uniper is one of five companies that have invested in
Nord Stream 2.
Brigitte Zypries, Germany's economy minister, claimed last year that the sanctions violated
international law and said that the EU should take action against the U.S. "Of course we don't
want a trade war. But it is important the European Commission now looks into countermeasures,"
she said. "The Americans can't punish German companies because they have business interests in
another country."
Cost Factors Could Impede Pivot
However, any Germany pivot to LNG away from Russian gas will come at a cost. Shipping LNG by
one of several suppliers, including Qatar, the U.S. or Angola to name a few, is simply more
expensive than Russian piped gas. While Russia already has an extensive pipeline network in
place, LNG is more expensive when transportation, liquefaction and regasification costs are
added.
Using a Henry Hub gas price of $2.85/MMBtu as a base, Russian energy giant Gazprom recently
estimated that adding processing and transportation costs, the price in Europe would reach
$6/MMBtu -- a steep markup.
Henry Hub gas prices are currently trading at $2.657/MMBtu. Over the last 52-week period
U.S. gas has traded between $2.64/MMBtu and $3.82/MMBtu.
Russian gas sells for around $5/MMBtu in European markets. Moreover, Russian gas exporter
Gazprom is also moving away from oil-indexation for gas prices to a European gas hub
indexation, which will allow additional price savings and unfortunately for Germany -- an
incentive to stick with Russian gas, even if it's geopolitically distasteful.
Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak
said yesterday that Russia is Europe's most flexibly and reliable source of energy that is
needed.
Its a long long way from a political announcement to an industrial reality. Also, the
quote:
Merkel backs "all initiatives supporting further diversification of gas supply" is
telling.
Germany does not want to be caught out in a Russia/US energy squeeze while its pursuing an
alternative energy path. Nor does Merkel want to overtly pick sides.
Plus if you will note, given the momentum of current German/Russian energy initiatives, I
rather doubt that this "announcement" will have a lot of traction in the near future.
The Oilprice site, although very informative is somewhat shrill from day to day
(everything is a BIG DEAL).
Yes, its a telling quote -- it can basically be paraphrased as 'if someone is willing to
pay for these facilities, we would be happy to hear that'. There are quite a few stalled
projects for LNG terminals in Europe -- but they are expensive and even the promise of cheap
US LNG won't unlock them so long as Russia can supply relatively cheap gas. If European
governments want more LNG terminals for security reasons then they'll have to pay for them.
Thats not likely to happen, there are far more pressing infrastructural needs.
Is anyone considering the possibility that the US's ability to deliver LNG may not exist
for long enough to pay the cost of building the infrastructure necessary to use it?
Is anyone factoring in the damage to our environment, including our fresh water when
calculating the cost of poking Russia in the eye?
At first glance, this whole play appears short-sighted, at least, probably foolish.
Of course the big oil companies have never gone unrewarded for their fealty to the whims
of the MIC, even when any objective analysis finds massive foolishness.
Dont worry, Novatek already delivered a shipment of LNG from the Yamal peninsular to the
UK.
I would bet that Nord Stream will not eliminate the need to export across the Ukraine.
Undersea pipelines dont have great capacity. But additional marginal pipeline capacity does
reduce the bargaining power of the Ukraine. Im sure LNG capacity does the same.
We're deep into our malinvestment phase where uneconomic industries are being sustained
with monetary policy to prop up an unsustainable status quo.
The question is whether the left can coordinate collective action before the right can
start WW3. It will be real events somewhere that cause real change: financialized capitalism
with its own hand on the money spigot of fiat money is, with reference to itself, a perpetual
motion machine.
It will either be a force of life, or thermodynamics that finally overthrow this machine.
The stresses for dramatic external political events are building everywhere.
However, this is where market capitalism excels. As long as there is enough money in the
hands of the average person (a major issue), the average person will install solar panels and
batteries and heat pumps and buy an EV and say "to hell with you" to the oil, gas, and coal
industries.
Less money is going to those average folks, but local EV is hopeful. Tons of money goes to
supporting facking, which in the absence of QE and the spigot of free money for
(mal)investors, would not be economical.
LNG ports to receive a fuel with what is approaching negative EROEI are pure
mal-investment.
MMT was used to incentivize net positive public goods by Mariner Eccles making the US the
richest nation in the world. We're now seeing the global financial cabal use the same tool to
despoil real wealth, monetizing it along with trust wherever it can find either. It is an
epic of short-termism that will ultimately destroy the money itself by liquidating the real
productive social and economic constellations that support it.
I read the statement as that Germany is looking for a replacement of its Dutch and
Norwegian gas sources. As Germany does not want to depend for 100% of its gas from Russia,
they do need to look for alternatives.
It is just smart policy not to depend from a single source, for whatever purpose.
Dutch and Norwegian gas reserves are in
long term decline , so its likely that Russian gas will become a higher proportion of
supply in the medium to longer term.
i) the cost of transport is very high and there is a linear relationship between distance
and transport costs
ii) both the client and the supplier would like stable long-term contracts to secure
investments and supply.
There is always interdependence if you want durable supply.
Constructing some LNG facilities, besides the cost factors mentioned above won't reduce
such interdependence by much given that Russia provides 40% of current consumption. Also,
Russia migth seek providing NG to fast growing asian markets. I think that Germany is trying
to diversify just because Norway, Netherlands, and its own production are declining. I also
think that this means that fracking gas in Europe is not seen as an alternative.
I wouldn't say that Germany will "pivot" from russian gas, that is giving too much weigth
to potential LNG supplies.
Another point is that if the issue is security, it would most likely be more cost
effective to build up a buffer in underground storage facilities than building new LNG
terminals.
I could be that Germany is buckling under the pressure of attacks as the US is threatening
to sanction European firms involved in the Russian/EU Nord Stream 2 project ( https://www.rt.com/business/421900-us-sanctions-nord-stream-companies/
) which if true, would mean that the EU would have to ask the permission of Washington in
dealings with any countries not to Washington's liking.
The Poles have already built a LNG gas delivery terminal so you would think that Germany
would just pipe it in from there unless Germany wanted to build their own terminal so that
they would not have to pay Poland any fees as Poland is one of the counties opposing Nord
Stream 2.
Poland has already received at least one LNP shipment from the US but the price of the
delivery is a state secret apparently.
The Russians could always turn around and sell their cheaper gas to China so no big loss
to them. Thing is, it will take a decade to build a fleet of tankers to carry the gas that
Germany needs annually as these ships would just be going back and forth like clockwork. Who
pays for that? Germany would also need years just to build the LNP port facility to receive
these shipments. I believe too that the US export terminal is in the Gulf so tough luck if a
hurricane shut down that terminal at any time. Remember, this winter the Russians had to ship
two tankers of gas to the US because of shortages so how reliable could a US supply be?
Add up the costs of building the port facility, a fleet of tankers and the infrastructure
to deal with it all, then top up with the gas not only being more expensive than the Russian
gas but also less reliable and the Germans will have to take a knife to their budget to pay
for it all. Trump would have a fit if it was their defense budget so that means the social
budget. Good luck with that. One last factor of which I have even less knowledge of is the US
gas supply. I believe that it comes from shale deposits aka fracking but I know that these
wells deplete rapidly so if true, would suggest that US gas as a supply source may be self
limiting over time. I don't think that the economics work out here for Germany somehow.
It's not a pivot. The only important thing is North Stream 2: if the US or the
transatlantic lobby manages to kill that, then there is a pivot. Otherwise, it's business as
usual.
So unless one wants to be ~90% dependent on russian gas, there has to be some alternatives
to keep the russians honest. Only realistic way is LNG. So Germany has to build the
infrastructure for it to have a credible bargaining position. The marketshare of russian gas
will increase over the next few years in any way.
Also, I would like to add that the German Press isn't treating this like some sort of
revelation.
As everywhere else, if a politician wants to get a little patriotic push on their side,
they hold a speech touting "energy independence". Germany is no different in that regard and
Merkel needs to appear a bit more nationalistic right now.
Current headlines are all about social issues like immigration, Facebook data breaches,
internal politics, etc. No one is obsessing about LNG facilities or things like Brexit.
There are major offshore gas fields in the Mediterranean -- on the coast of Cyprus and all
the way offshore from Syria to Egypt. Their exploitation is still largely pending resolution
of local crises (Turkey vs EU re Cyprus, Israel vs Palestine and Lebanon, in Syria because of
war). Once those fields come on line, the need for special-purpose ports to bring in LNG from
afar to Europe no longer makes much economic sense.
Besides, Algeria continues to provide gas (and oil) to the EU.
Germany is a major shareholder in the EPR reactor, but isn't building any
because its proven far too expensive, much more expensive than domestic renewables.
Its untrue to say that Germany buys a lot of French nuclear energy, imports from France are minor at a net
of around 4 terawatt hours a year, similar to the amount of wind energy Germany buys from
Denmark. Its dwarfed by the huge renewable sector in Germany which produces over 200 TWh per annum . Germany is
actually a net exporter of energy to France in most summers as the inland nuclear plants
often go off-line due to water shortages.
"Germany's LNG pivot also comes as a geopolitical storm between the U.K. and Russia
intensifies over an alleged Moscow-orchestrated nerve-agent attack on British soil against
what the BBC called a double spy and his daughter."
When one thinks about the geopolitical repercussions of this nerve gas attack on $$ for
USA LNG, the control of energy supplies to the EU by the USA and its middle east puppets, the
quickly identified fingerprint and emotionally charged finger pointing, a complex technical
topic to which the general public has general knowledge and therefore must rely on
"authorities", the high level of media attention for a relatively minor character, and the
ongoing attempts to vilify and isolate Russia -- one has to wonder if this is just another
CIA false flag event similar to Iraq WMDs and the Syrian chemical weapons attacks -- another
false flag that will eventually fall apart after it has served its purpose. Examined in the
light of past and ongoing CIA atrocities (Renditions and torture in Abu Ghraib and Gitmo,
droning, MKULTRA, Operation Mongoose, Phoenix Program, Iran-Contra, numerous assassinations
and coups -- just to name a few), it seems quite in line with what I would expect from this
criminal organization. Not that we can really know the truth at this time, but those who
dutifully believe the corporate media on this topic might want to open a skeptical eye. There
are likely cover stories within cover stories -- much like cover stories one finds in the
Wormwood documentary.
This news along with Trudeau's support for Kinder Morgan Canada's Trans Mountain oil/tar
sands pipeline expansion should make it clear that the Paris Accords were a cruel joke on
humanity. We will keep extracting every single last drop of recoverable oil until we run out
of energy to continue or we nuke ourselves.
So, it's easy enough for Germany to pivot away from gas *if* they switch to heating with
electricity. However, Merkel refuses to push this. Because Merkel.
The Senators' argument is that dependence on Russian gas undermines European security.
Whereas to the Russians, it is obvious that the Americans wish to replace cheap Rusian
piped gas with expensive liquefied American gas, which is a bi-product of fracking for oil
and currently in surplus. Some frackers in Canada are even having to pay someone to take
their gas.
Surprisingly, no one has yet pointed out that Russia could deliver Novichok to the whole
of Europe via Nordstream 2.
"... This is a European energy issue. From the start. The US either wants to be the middle-man or cut Russia off from it entirely. No other options have been tabled or would be acceptable to Washington. Remember the Trump quote "Why don't we just take their oil and gas?" ..."
"... Look at the opposition gaining speed against Nord Stream II. And also look, the UK and all of Europe may be in for some cold summers and winters now, it's a trend they cannot ignore as it gets colder for longer periods, this trend isn't relaxing with the stratosphere doing some flips and turns and sending "The Beast From The East" towards the once Great Britain. ..."
The Skripal anti-Russia hysteria effort is just another step in the US/CIA campaign to
interfere with the Russian hosting of the World Cup -- the next step will be to attempt to
have the qualifying European countries boycott the event ... remember, to them, every Russian
loss is an American win.
However, I will go on record to predict that the US will have its Ukrainian neo-Nazi
vassals mount a major attack on the Donbass within week of the beginning of the World Cup
tournament.
I agree the World Cup is on the agenda, but this effort is multi-pronged, like Octi-putin,
they will want to boycott it and you will see all sorts of FIFA related articles in the
coming months, corruption and so on. It's all predictable.
This is a European energy issue. From the start. The US either wants to be the
middle-man or cut Russia off from it entirely. No other options have been tabled or would be
acceptable to Washington. Remember the Trump quote "Why don't we just take their oil and
gas?"
Look at the opposition gaining speed against Nord Stream II. And also look, the UK and
all of Europe may be in for some cold summers and winters now, it's a trend they cannot
ignore as it gets colder for longer periods, this trend isn't relaxing with the stratosphere
doing some flips and turns and sending "The Beast From The East" towards the once Great
Britain.
It is about bankrupting Russia and also trying to get European
nations to turn the Russian gas tap off, and so Europe will have to resort
to buying gas through Western controlled natural gas resources, liquid gas
shipments, and a proposed Qatar-Turkey pipeline through Syria. Once most
Western people discover the actual history of our wars and what ruthless,
unconscionable bastards our Western power brokers actually are, they will
automatically want to support Russia.
This is the May-Johnson excuse for not going through with Brexit. Now they
will say they need their partner in the EU to protect them. Good luck with
that one.
I wouldn't write NATO off just yet. Rothschild bought Naftogaz which has an
office in Egypt. Igor Kolomoisky has some interesting ties also the
temporary occupation of Crimea by Russia. And who is Genie Energy?
"... Another background to the British provocation might be the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Construction is to start now and once it is finished Ukraine can´t blackmail Europe anymore by holding up gas delivery. Poland, the Baltics, the US and of course Ukraine are violently opposed to Nord Stream 2. ..."
...The British noise about the alleged nerve gas agent is then nothing more but another
attempt to force Washingtons´s hand to increase hostility towards Russia.
Interestingly enough today Germany´s defense minister who is a close confident of
Merkel echoed the outrage about the alleged nerve gas attack but called for a "UN
investigation". That is she didn´t endorse the British claim.
Another background to the British provocation might be the Nord Stream gas pipeline from
Russia to Germany. Construction is to start now and once it is finished Ukraine can´t
blackmail Europe anymore by holding up gas delivery. Poland, the Baltics, the US and of
course Ukraine are violently opposed to Nord Stream 2.
Sanctions on Russia are being ignored. China is investing its US Trillions. Under US imposed
sanctions, ExxonMobil withdrew and China said "Thank You" and took the partnership.
Chinese state-controlled Huarong Asset Management has bought a 36.2 percent stake in the unit
of CEFC China Energy through which CEFC is acquiring a $9.1 billion stake in Russian oil
giant Rosneft.
According to CEFC filings seen by Reuters, Huarong has bought the stake in CEFC in two
tranches, one in December and one in February. Huarong is controlled by China's Ministry of
Finance.
In September, CEFC Energy announced plans to acquire 14.16 percent of Rosneft shares from
Glencore and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA).
"The final structure of Rosneft's shareholders has been formed," Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin
told Rossiya 24 television.
As part of a long-term agreement, Rosneft and CEFC Energy inked a deal on crude oil
deliveries in 2017. According to the agreement, the Russian oil major will supply CEFC with
60.8 million tons of oil annually until 2023.
The agreement covers the development of exploration and production projects in Siberia.
The two companies plan to cooperate in refining, petrochemicals and crude trading.
The Ukrainian authorities have started the seizure of assets belonging to the Russian gas
giant Gazprom, citing its alleged non-compliance with the decision of the Stockholm arbitration
court. "Under the current circumstances, the Ukrainian cabinet initiates action aimed at
recovering [a] penalty from Gazprom," the Ukrainian government's press service said in a
statement published on its official website. It also claimed that the move was conducted in
compliance with the decision of the Stockholm court and involves collecting a fine from the
Russian company over its alleged violation of Ukrainian anti-monopoly legislation. Read more
Ukraine is
overpaying for European gas & wants Russia to foot the bill
The Swedish arbitration body initially ruled on the three-year dispute between Gazprom and
the Ukrainian energy company, Naftogaz, back in December 2017. The policy of the court prevents
it from even acknowledging that it's mediating a case, which makes it impossible to obtain its
own account of the final ruling. Both energy companies, which have opposing takes on the
outcome, initially claimed victory in the case.
In late February, the same court ordered Gazprom to compensate Naftogaz $4.6 billion for
what the latter sees as lost profit from the transit of Russian gas to Europe.
The legal battle between the two energy companies in the Arbitration Institute of the
Stockholm Chamber of Commerce had rumbled on since June 2014. Gazprom's claims related to fines
for insufficient withdrawal and use of gas by the Ukrainian side, in accordance with a
'take-or-pay' rule. The Russian gas giant also demanded payment of a debt for gas
delivered to Ukraine between May and June 2014.
Naftogaz pushed for a retroactive change in the price of gas, the reimbursement of
overpayments and the repeal of a ban on reselling Russian gas. The court eventually satisfied
some of the Ukrainian company's demands, in particular by setting a minimum amount of gas that
Naftogaz must buy from Gazprom annually (from 2018) at a volume that was 10 times lower than in
the original contract. At the same time, it also obliged Gazprom to pay for the transit of the
Russian gas through the Ukrainian territory between 2009 and 2017 even though the gas was not,
in fact, transited over that period.
The Head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, then called the court's decision "asymmetric"
and "very politically motivated." The court justified its decision by referring to a
difficult economic situation in Ukraine.
"... Bullshit. The Ukrainians have been on a pay before delivery tariff from Russia for years. They have chosen war over trade. They currently prefer to spend what income they get that survives oligarch looting on trying to kill the East Ukrainians (currenly 6.9% of GDP). ..."
Sat, 03/03/2018 - 21:13 Last week, Russia's state-run gas giant and quasi-monopolist when it
comes to European natgas supplies, Gazprom, announced it would not restart shipments of natural
gas to Ukraine's Naftogaz starting March 1 after the two sides failed to reach an agreement,
Gazprom deputy chairman, Alexander Medvedev, told journalists.
Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine were supposed to restart on Thursday following a foreign
court ruling aimed at ending years of disputes between Kiev and Moscow, including two halts to
Russian gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. But Gazprom unexpectedly refused to resume
deliveries, returning the prepayment for supplies made by Kiev, claiming amendments to a
contract had not been completed.
The decision came as the sides reportedly failed to extend a supplemental agreement to the
current gas contract, RT
reported.
"So far, the supplemental agreement to the operating contract with Naftogaz has not been
approved, and that is a compulsory condition for launching the shipments," Medvedev said. "So,
we have to recover the amount paid by the company in full. And it is obvious that the shipments
in March won't start."
In response, Ukraine's state monopoly said that Gazprom had failed to deliver prepaid gas.
Naftogaz is reportedly planning to claim damages for supply failure from the Russian energy
major.
And while the long-running dispute may, but likely won't, be resolved in court, Ukraine has
suddenly found itself without heat and on Friday urged schools to close and factories to cut
production, while residents shivered as the country strained to save on gas supplies.
The decision coincided with freezing temperatures all over Ukraine, and the government
called on Friday for measures to reduce consumption.
" Starting today, we recommended ... to stop the work of kindergartens, schools and
universities ," Ukraine energy minister Igor
Nasalyk told lawmakers , while urging Ukrainian companies to adjust their operations to
save gas, while power companies were ordered to switch to fuel oil where possible.
Nasalyk said these savings measures would be in effect until Tuesday, when temperatures are
expected to rise.
* * *
Meanwhile, on Friday, Gazprom director Alexei Miller said that the company would immediately
turn to the Stockholm arbitration court to break its contract with the Ukrainian operator
Naftogaz, Russian news agencies reported. A ruling by the same court last year was meant to
halt disputes over gas prices and shipments, which had often been a proxy for political
disputes between Moscow and Kiev. The court set a price and ordered Kiev to resume purchases it
had cancelled following the breakout in "proxy" violence between the two nations in 2014.
Also on Friday, Naftogaz said that Gazprom had not only refused to resume deliveries meant
for it, but lowered the pressure in gas pipelines by 20 percent and minimized sales to other
customers. In a statement, Naftogaz said that Gazprom was trying to portray Ukraine in a
negative light and suggest that it was willing either to let its own population freeze or make
it out to be "an unreliable transit company that takes the gas away" from European
countries.
In response,
Reuters reported today that Gazprom said there had so far been no impact on supplies
through its pipelines to Europe, despite the sharp escalation in tensions with the key transit
nation.
Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak told European Commission Vice President Maros
Sefcofic in a phone conversation that gas transit would not be at risk until Gazprom and
Naftogaz fully terminated their agreement.
"Minister Novak assured that the gas transit from Russia to Europe is under no threat. The
transit remains as reliable as in the past," the ministry said.
* * *
Kiev and Moscow have a history of clashing over prices and obligations under contracts for
the delivery of Russian gas to Ukraine as well as transit to Europe. The standoff in the winter
of 2006 triggered supply disruptions, with Russia accusing Ukraine of stealing gas intended for
the European market.
The gas giants are currently involved in a long-standing litigation over the terms of the
current delivery contract. Ukraine's lawyers are struggling for annulment of the so-called
take-or-pay provision that obliges Kiev to purchase a minimum annual quantity of gas. Earlier
this week, Naftogaz claimed it had won a $2.56 billion victory in another round of its legal
battle with Gazprom.
Karma can be a bitch Ukraine. Still, I'm sure your friends in Washington will immediately
provide you with an endless supply of free LNG? Call Vicky.
Incidentally, to the author, your map is incorrect (i'm sure that was just an error like
Goolag's deletion of Themtube sites). Crimea is no longer a part of Ukraine after 95%+ of its
population excercised their right to self-determination after the Maidan coup.
Ukraine's already connected to Poland's LNG port. And by the way, days at sea for a ship
with Qatari LNG is the same as a saudi tanker hauling oil to the U.S.
Ukraine is in a total meltdown, forget about Venezuela which at least has energy stores.
Ukraine has to import most of its energy. Donbass has all the coal. Putin is a genius, he is
starving Ukraine of energy. There will be mass unrest in the country. Expect a government
friendly to Russia to come back into play. The only thing that can prevent this is if Europe
and the USA are willing to pay for Ukraine's energy needs.
Where otherwise will Ukraine get
the hard currency. Well for a while it will get it by selling off its farmland and its women.
In ww2 you could buy a woman with a package of pantyhose, an MRE, or a pack of cigarettes.
Now you will be able to buy them again the same way and with a lump of coal.
"Ukraine Freezes After Russia Halts Gas Deliveries"
Bullshit. The Ukrainians have been on a pay before delivery tariff from Russia for years.
They have chosen war over trade. They currently prefer to spend what income they get that
survives oligarch looting on trying to kill the East Ukrainians (currenly 6.9% of GDP).
On
March 1, Ukraine closed all schools, colleges and universities to conserve energy. Following
a Stockholm arbitration court decision on March 1, Gazprom has started the process of
cancelling the contracts for supply of gas to and through Ukraine. They are at liberty to
purchase it at market rates ($600 per 100 cubic metersversus the subsidised $300 from Russia)
from the Europeans.
Joe Biden's son, Hunter, was hired by a Ukraine company, Burisma Holdings Limited,
promoting energy independence from Moscow. So hows it goin Hunter??
Too busy fooling around with his late brother's widow. No time for Ukraine. Murica can help
fund some gas, if they can throw away a couple billion for the coup, c'mon Guys, Porky is
yoar Bro.
Most likely he was fooling around with her before his brother died. Some of his nieces and
nephews may be his kids. The Bidens are a microcosm of the perverse behavior in DC.
"Kathleen Biden accused estranged husband Hunter of reckless spending on 'drugs,
prostitutes, and an $80,000 diamond' in divorce docs - days before his affair with widowed
sister-in-law Hallie was revealed"
" Kathleen claims Hunter spends money on 'drugs, alcohol, prostitutes, strip clubs and
gifts for women with whom he had sexual relations' in her new motion "
I live in Minneapolis. The weather here isn't too different from much of Ukraine. For
early March we're having a very warm day, nearly 50 F. But next week we get back to more
seasonal highs around freezing, with maybe 6" of slushy snow on Monday.
I really like it when my heat works. I do have a wood-burning fireplace but if I have to use it for heat we've got a lot of
problems all at once. Ukraine is a great example of what always happens when Nazis get in charge. Everything
goes to hell in a handbasket, quickly.
The fools just might do that to keep the riots out of the government buildings in Kiev.
Russia doesn't want the basket case either so who knows what the war would look like. Kiev is
totally screwed either way this goes.
No Russia knows that any dealings with Kiev or ukr companies are disastrous. Russia acts
very carefully within the law. Hence immediate return of first gas payement since 2014, so
not legally bound. Hence Gasprom requiring a signed contract under mutually agreed conditions
which they did not get.
Already Ukraine is say there is a 20 percent drop off in pressure on transit gas thru.
ukr. Russia says not, it is gas pressure as usual.
Looks like Ukraine is stealing 20percent of transit gas immediately.
The Ukrainian economy is in a catastrophic state after four years of "euro-reforms," said
Viktor Medvedchuk, head of the public movement "Ukrainian Choice – People's
Right." "At the end of 2013. Ukraine's state and publicly guaranteed debt was 40% of GDP, and
by the end of 2017 it had more than doubled, exceeding 80% of GDP. In 2013, Ukraine's GDP per
capita was more than $ 4,075, and in 2016 decreased to $ 2221.
The average monthly salary in 2017 as a whole for the country was $ 267 (in 2013 it exceeded
$ 408), pensions are also 2.3 times lower than before the euro reform. Today, it is slightly
more than $ 48, while in 2013 it was almost $ 112, " Medvedchuk said.
The Polish leadership intends to implement a project of its own with the Baltic Pipe gas
pipeline - in face of the "Nord Stream - 2". This is reported by the German newspaper
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung .
The Polish party "Law and Justice" decided to revive the Baltic Pipe project and connect to the
Norwegian gas network. According to press releases, at the end of last year the Polish state
oil and gas company PGNiG reserved the capacity of the gas pipeline for 15 years, at a cost of
two billion dollars. It is assumed that the Polish project with an annual capacity of 10
billion cubic meters per year will begin to function in 2022, but the final decision on this
project will be taken later in 2018.
Poland actively opposes the construction of the Russian "Nord Stream - 2". Earlier, the Polish
Prime Minister called on the US leadership to extend American sanctions for the implementation
of this project. In addition, he said that European companies involved in the construction of
the gas pipeline should be fined.
Germany has rebuffed such statements, stating that the project guarantees energy security for
Europe.
Nord Stream -2 is a project worth 9.5 billion euros, which involves the construction of two
lines of pipeline across the Baltic Sea from the coast of Russia to Germany. The total capacity
will be 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
A production sharing agreement (PSA) between Royal Dutch Shell and Ukraine's Nadra Yuzivska
for the development of Yuzivske shale gas deposits located in Ukraine's Kharkiv and Donetsk
regions was signed in Davos on 24 January 2013 through the mediation of Ukrainian president
Viktor Yanukovych and Netherlands prime minister Mark Rutte. The agreement was inked by
Ukraine's energy and coal industry minister Eduard Stavitsky and Royal Dutch Shell CEO Peter
Voser.
Prior to the signing ceremony Yanukovych told journalists that Ukraine would benefit from
the agreement since it would allow attracting investments, which Ukraine could use to increase
the domestic natural gas production thus creating jobs, raising the level of the country's
economy as well as increasing the budget revenues and providing funds for social needs.
On 23 January Ukraine's cabinet of ministers approved a draft PSA between Shell Exploration
and Production Ukraine Investments B.V. and Nadra Yuzivska for Yuzivske shale gas field
(7,886m2 acreage) development.
Yuzivske field prognostic resources are estimated at 2-4trln m3 of gas, which can be a viable
alternative for costly natural gas volumes Ukraine imports form Russia. In the meanwhile US
Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates Ukraine's shale gas potential at 1.2trln m3 in this
way making the country's shale gas reserves the 4th largest in Europe after Poland, France and
Norway. Totally consuming some 60bn m3 of natural gas annually, Ukraine has to import 40bn m3
of natural gas from Russia priced $430 per 1,000 m3 based on the terms of agreements inked in
2009.
Ukraine's prime minister Mykola Azarov stated earlier that Yuzivske field commercial
development over the span of a decade could give Ukraine an additional 8-10bn m3 of gas
annually.
As Eduard Stavitsky put it in Davos, Ukraine could possibly meet its domestic natural gas
demand in full in about 5 years of shale gas production cooperation with Shell. "According to
Shell's optimistic scenario about 20bn m3 of gas could be extracted annually; according to the
pessimistic one, at the very least 7-8bn m3. If the top forecasts were fulfilled, we would
tackle the gas shortfall problem in Ukraine or might even go into surplus", Stavitsky was
quoted as saying. He stated earlier that Shell saw investments under the deal of at least $10bn
under the most likely scenario and possibly as much as $50bn.
OILMARKET Info
In May 2012 Shell was chosen the successful bidder for 7,800km2 Yuzivske acreage (Kharkiv and
Donetsk regions, Ukraine) development with projected reserves estimated at 4.054trln m3 of gas
of various categories. The project calls for raising at least $20mn (UAH1.6bn) in investments
for the geological study phase, and $3.75bn (UAH30bn) for the industrial production phase. The
agreement envisages stage-by-stage exploration, development and hydrocarbons production. Both
companies (Shell and Nadro Yuzivske) will hold a 50% participation stake, with Shell chosen the
project operator responsible for carrying out works under the terms of agreement.
According to Shell press service, the mentioned PSA was signed for 50 years period. The
initial geological study phase at Yuzivske field implies 2D and 3D seismics as well as 15 well
drilling, which is expected to enable effective exploration and assessments of hydrocarbon
deposits potential especially that of natural gas trapped in compacted sandstone. Yuzivske
field development will be implemented in line with the highest international HSE standards. In
this way Shell is to carry out comprehensive possible environmental, social and public health
impact assessment of the project prior to launch.
"... "The top American diplomat said his country is ready to help Poland continue to diversify its fuel supplies, including through the sale of U.S. liquefied natural gas, to reduce its dependence on Russia" ..."
Tillerson apes Hillary Clinton PR lines on Russia:
WARSAW (Reuters) - The United States sees the planned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between
Russia and Germany as a threat to Europe's energy security, U.S. Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson said on Saturday.
The rest of the Reuters article is garbage, so I'm not bothering with a link. . . Bloomberg
seems to spell out the larger rationale, at least:
"The top American diplomat said his country is ready to help Poland continue to diversify its
fuel supplies, including through the sale of U.S. liquefied natural gas, to reduce its
dependence on Russia"
Notice also that Secretary of Defense Mattis says that the US military is now focused on
"Great Power Conflicts" - so what is this, right back to the Hillary Clinton gameplan? At
least, Trump is unlikely to get any international support for reckless military actions, so
that's one good thing about him over Clinton.
LNG tanker Gaselys was scheduled to arrive in Boston Saturday. Vessel reversed course to
Spain after almost 21 days en route
... ... ...
While unusual, it's not unheard of for LNG cargoes that aren't tied into a contract with
fixed destination to change course en route as cargo owners seek the highest price and the best
market. Companies with access to wide global supplies can also swap shipments between regions.
What's more, the tanker may still make it to Boston with a delay, as was the case with
deliveries earlier this month, according to Kpler SAS, a cargo-tracking company.
"We have still not canceled the Everett port call for Gaselys," Madeleine Overgaard, an LNG
market analyst at Kpler, said by email. "Her course is currently not very different from the
average delivery at Everett in 2017, she is probably just diverting to delay arrival."
Engie SA's North American unit bought the spot cargo for delivery to the U.S. from
Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd. to supplement its contracted volumes from Trinidad and
Tobago into its Everett terminal near Boston, it said last week. Engie declined to comment on
the tanker's movement on Friday.
The Yamal LNG project, co-owned by Russia's Novatek PJSC, Total SA, China Natural Petroleum
Corp. and China's Silk Road Fund, started production in December despite U.S. financial
sanctions imposed in 2014 because of Russia's involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. It plans
to deliver 14 spot cargoes by April, when long-term contracts kick in.
With the opening of the new ESPO oil pipeline connecting Siberia to China doubling the
amount of oil China can import to 600,000 barrels per day we'll see those numbers continue to
accelerate.
And that's the key. Remember, the massive $400 billion gas deal China made with Gazprom in
2014 hasn't begun delivering gas. The first Power of Siberia pipeline isn't due to be completed
until 2019. The second Power of Siberia pipeline is on the table after this one.
And the two countries just agreed to a third pipeline to bring gas in from Russia's far east
last month.
So, despite back-biting from western media about the profitability of these projects, they
are going forward and the two countries continue to strengthen fundamental ties to one
another.
... ... ...
The important takeaway is that China has created the first unassailable and above-ground
challenge to the petro-dollar oil trade. To break the world's use of the dollar as the sole
settlement currency for oil required the right contract issued by a country the U.S. can't
immediately invade and conduct a regime change operation in – like in Iraq and Libya.
Russia wins here because now there is a path for its Urals grade to become an international
benchmark like WTI and Brent. And since Gazprom prefers to price its long-term gas contracts
based on underlying oil prices rather than the more volatile natural gas price, this is also a
win in the long run for them.
Gold convertibility is a means to deepen China's sovereign debt markets by making it less
risky to hold Chinese bonds. The lack of true yuan convertibility is the big impediment to
people holding them. So, gold convertibility creates a viable exit route.
Bob, when you control 40% of the World's Oil & Gas Reserves and can turn the tap on
and off then you can hardly be considered POOR, especially when you make up 20% of the
world's Land Mass ( am also thinking Fresh Water ).
Vichy DC's Sanctions on Russia are in Essence, Sanctions on Exxon & the Majors (who
soon won't be Majors at this rate ) and the EUROPEAN UNION.
The vice tightens inexorably and US foreign policy thrashes about in response to the
pressure. What will the parasitic Jewish overlords do to save their declining host?
Are companies which produce it profitable or they survive by generating a parallel stream
of junk bonds and evergreen loans?
Most of them are also shale oil producers and might well depend on revenue from shale oil
to produce gas. Shale oil proved to unsustainable at prices below, say $65-$75 per barrel or
even higher, excluding few "sweet spots". Also a lot of liquids the shale well produce are
"subprime oil" that refiners shun.
They are not only much lighter but also they have fewer hydrocarbons necessary for
producing kerosene and diesel fuel. Mixing it with heavy oil proved to be double edged sword
and still inferior to "natural" oil. So right now the USA imports "quality" oil and sells its
own" subprime oil" at discount to refineries that are capable of dealing with such a mix.
Say, buying a barrel for $60 and selling a barrel of "subprime oil" at $30.
And without revenue from oil and liquids it can well be that natural gas production might
be uneconomical.
I wonder what percentage of the total US oil production now is subprime oil.
Modern multistage shale well now cost around $7-10 million. And that's only beginning as
its exploitation also costs money (fuel, maintenance, pumping back highly salinated and often
toxic water the well produces, etc). So neither oil nor gas from such wells can be very
cheap.
Generally such a well is highly productive only the first couple of years. After that you
need to drill more.
Also there is a damage to environment including such dangerous thing as pollution of
drinking water in the area,
From what I can tell, in Europe there was a policy of encouraging LNG terminals in order
to provide leverage against Russian supply. But there seems to have been a significant
slowdown in construction – quite simply, LNG is too expensive relative to Russian and
domestic (Norwegian, Dutch, UK, Mediteranean) supplies. It makes much more sense for Europe
to broaden out its pipeline network. So I think the only appetite for US LNG comes from the
more anti-Russian eastern European countries such as Poland, which hates dependency on
Russian gas.
Poland would suffer without revenue from pipelines that transport Russian natural gas to
Western Europe. That's why they adamantly oppose North Stream II.
Not as much as Ukraine, for which it might mean the economic collapse, but still.
"... By Wolf Richter, a San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and author, with extensive international work experience. Originally published at Wolf Street ..."
"... Exports to Mexico via pipeline have been rising for years as more pipelines have entered service and as Mexican power generators are switching from burning oil that could be sold in the global markets to burning cheap US natural gas. The US imports no natural gas from Mexico. ..."
"... This is just the Sabine Pass export terminal. In addition, there are five other LNG export terminals under construction, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), with a combined capacity of 7.5 Bcf/d. This brings total LNG export capacity to over 11 Bcf/d over the next few years and will make the US the third largest LNG exporter globally, behind Australia and Qatar. ..."
"... According to the Institute of Energy Research, global LNG demand is currently around 37 Bcf per day. This is expected to grow substantially as China is shifting part of its power generation capacity from coal to natural gas. And US LNG exports to China have surged from nothing two years ago to 25.6 billion cubic feet in October (for the month, not per day): ..."
"... US natural gas production has been booming since 2009 as fracking in prolific shale plays took off, and the price has collapsed – it currently is below $3 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at the NYMEX, despite tthe majestic cold wave that is gripping a big part of the country. ..."
"... This caused some immense price differences between the US market -- where a gas "glut" crushed prices, pushing them from time to time even below $2/mmBtu -- and, for example, the Japanese LNG import market, with prices that were in the $16-$17/mmBtu range in 2013 and 2014. Even the average spot price contracted in November 2017, the most recent data made available by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry , was $9/mmBtu. US LNG exporters hope to arbitrage these price differentials. ..."
"... Meanwhile, US producers are hoping that this overseas demand will mop up the glut in the US and allow them to finally boost prices, including the prices LNG exporters pay. But funding continues pouring into the oil and gas sector to pump up production, and prices have remained low, and drillers continue to bleed. ..."
"... Poland may have one built but think about this – the Ukraine may be happy to pay for American coal which is twice as expensive as what they could buy from the Donbass regions but will Europe be happy to pay double or more for LNG from the US just to spite the Russians? ..."
By Wolf Richter, a San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and
author, with extensive international work experience. Originally published at
Wolf Street
Even China is Buying U.S. LNG
In 2017, the US became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time. It started small in
February, when the US exported 1 billion cubic feet more than it imported. By October, the last
month for which data from the Energy Department's EIA is available, net exports surged to 45
billion cubic feet. For the first 10 months of 2017, the US exported 86 billion cubic feet more
than it imported. And this is just the beginning.
Exports to Mexico via pipeline have been rising for years as more pipelines have entered
service and as Mexican power generators are switching from burning oil that could be sold in
the global markets to burning cheap US natural gas. The US imports no natural gas from
Mexico.
Imports from and exports to Canada have both declined since 2007, with the US continuing to
import more natural gas from Canada than it exports to Canada.
What is new is the surging export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by sea to other parts of
the world.
This chart shows net imports (imports minus exports) of US natural gas. Negative "net
imports" (red) mean that the US exports more than it imports:
The first major LNG export terminal in the Lower 48 – Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass
terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana – began commercial deliveries in early 2016 when
the liquefaction unit "Train 1" entered service. Trains 2 and 3 followed. The three trains have
a capacity of just over 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). In October 2017, the company
announced that Train 4, with a capacity of 0.7 Bcf/d, was substantially completed and is likely
to begin commercial deliveries in March 2018. Train 5 is under construction and is expected to
be completed in August 2019. The company is now lining up contracts and financing for Train 6.
All six trains combined will have a capacity of 4.2 Bcf/d.
This is just the Sabine Pass export terminal. In addition, there are five other LNG export
terminals under construction, according to the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), with a combined capacity of 7.5 Bcf/d. This brings
total LNG export capacity to over 11 Bcf/d over the next few years and will make the US the
third largest LNG exporter globally, behind Australia and Qatar.
In addition, there are several other export terminals that FERC has approved but
construction has not yet started. And other projects are in the works but have not yet been
approved.
According to the Institute of Energy Research, global LNG demand is currently around 37 Bcf
per day. This is expected to grow substantially as China is shifting part of its power
generation capacity from coal to natural gas. And US LNG exports to China have surged from
nothing two years ago to 25.6 billion cubic feet in October (for the month, not per day):
US natural gas production has been booming since 2009 as fracking in prolific shale plays
took off, and the price has collapsed – it currently is below $3 per million British
thermal units (mmBtu) at the NYMEX, despite tthe majestic cold wave that is gripping a big part
of the country.
Exporting large quantities of LNG is a momentous shift for the US because it connects
previously landlocked US production to the rest of the world. Unlike oil, the US natural gas
market has largely been isolated from global pricing.
This caused some immense price differences between the US market -- where a gas "glut"
crushed prices, pushing them from time to time even below $2/mmBtu -- and, for example, the
Japanese LNG import market, with prices that were in the $16-$17/mmBtu range in 2013 and 2014.
Even the average spot price contracted in November 2017, the most recent data made available by
the Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry , was $9/mmBtu. US LNG exporters hope to arbitrage these price
differentials.
Meanwhile, US producers are hoping that this overseas demand will mop up the glut in the US
and allow them to finally boost prices, including the prices LNG exporters pay. But funding
continues pouring into the oil and gas sector to pump up production, and prices have remained
low, and drillers continue to bleed.
And there are already global consequences – including in Europe, where large regions,
including Germany, increasingly depend on natural gas from Russia as production in Europe is
declining. The new competition from the US – though it really hasn't started in earnest
yet since most of US LNG goes to places other than Europe at the moment – is already
reverberating through the Europe-Russia natural gas trade.
The first major LNG export terminal in the Lower 48 began commercial deliveries in early
2016
Hmmm, is this a case of build it and they will come? Somebody has to sink the capital in
to build a fleet of LNG containers which will take a decade to come online. Somebody also has
the build the LNG terminals as well as the infrastructure to go along with it.
Poland may
have one built but think about this – the Ukraine may be happy to pay for American coal
which is twice as expensive as what they could buy from the Donbass regions but will Europe
be happy to pay double or more for LNG from the US just to spite the Russians?
Consider this as well. That LNG terminal is in Louisiana. Which is in the Gulf. Which has all
those annual hurricanes. Which is getting worse through climate change. Would the Europeans
want to risk depending on American deliveries under these conditions? I will reword that.
Will the Europeans want to risk their economies over this? Last year they shut down the place
for a month for repairs. What if Hurricane Harvey had slammed into the place. How will the
Europeans be able to trust that a future Trump doesn't shut down LNG deliveries in winter
time to get them to commit to some American policy? Too many variables with no net gain and
all loss – on their part.
The key here is whether Russia will stop transit of gas via Ukraine or not.
Notable quotes:
"... A more far-reaching result from the Stockholm proceedings was the intention to void the traditional (Gazprom) formula for gas prices which is based on a linkage to the price of oil. Instead, the price of gas will be tied directly to the spot gas market such as the European hub. ..."
"... In traditional Gazprom contracts, the price of gas depends on the price of oil, and only up to 15% of the price is a spot gas component. For decades, this contractual linkage of the price of gas to oil was largely accepted as being open and fair. ..."
"... the Stockholm arbitration declared that Naftogaz must honor their contract, and buy from Gazprom 5 billion cubic meters of gas annually. As it turns out the "take or pay" clause remains in force, but the volume has been significantly reduced. ..."
"... The irony is that while this is a loss of face for Kiev politically, economically it benefits the Ukrainian consumer. To date, Ukraine's purchases of "reverse gas" from Europe has been far more expensive than that which was contracted reliably over the years by Gazprom. ..."
After 2014, Ukraine claimed that it was being overcharged, and therefore Naftogaz refused to
pay Gazprom their contracted price for gas. Instead, it paid unilaterally a different amount
that it subjectively considered "fair."
Gazprom, in keeping with mutually contracted terms and conditions, could only issue an
invoice for the resulting underpayment, and after Naftogaz still refused to pay (a debt of
approx. $2 billion), made any further deliveries of gas contingent on prepayment.
The arbitration additionally upheld Gazprom's position and denied Naftogaz any right to a
refund for gas priced between May 2011 and April 2014 or collect any of the claimed
"overcharged gas" totaling approximately $14 billion for that period. In sum, the price Kiev
claimed was "inflated" was judged as in Stockholm as baseless.
Therefore, the question of who is accountable and responsible for settling debt has been
clarified in Stockholm. Naftogaz must pay Gazprom $2 billion plus a fine calculated at 0.03%
per day for each day this debt remains unpaid. This fine has already reached $3 million since
the court decision on December 22nd, and if it not paid can reach an annualized figure of $216
million and still keep growing daily.
Like any political and economic story, there is quite a bit that does not make the flashy
headlines, but plays a role in contributing to the noise surrounding an issue. Naftogaz takes
satisfaction in that the settlement allowed that the gas price for the second quarter of 2014
was to be reduced from $485 to $352 per 1000 cubic meters, or 27%, thereby "saving" Ukraine
about $ 1.8 billion for 2014-2015. The price of $485 was in fact fixed for that one quarter,
and it was higher than the market price. The reason was that the March referendum and
subsequent reunification of Crimea within the Russian Federation happened then. Up until that
time, Russia had given Ukraine a discount of $100 per one thousand cubic meters of gas as
payment for renting the Crimean base for the Black Sea fleet. The Kharkov treaty with Ukraine
which dealt with the naval base was therefore canceled, as Crimea was once again Russia.
Without this discount, the price increased by that same discounted $100 in the contracted
quarterly price fix.
Key is Stockholm's recognition that the Russian gas price for Ukraine in 2011-2014 was fair,
which is much more important than the price fixed in that second quarter in question. It is
worth noting in the next third quarter of 2014 Gazprom was prepared to provide Ukraine with a
market price for gas again. However, as we all know today, since June 2014 Naftogaz has refused
to buy gas from Russia for political reasons and calling it an "aggressor nation."
A more far-reaching result from the Stockholm proceedings was the intention to void the
traditional (Gazprom) formula for gas prices which is based on a linkage to the price of oil.
Instead, the price of gas will be tied directly to the spot gas market such as the European
hub. Should this occur, then the future gas price for Ukraine will be linked to the cost of
fuel in the European hub. This would be a major departure from the traditional pricing Gazprom
has used for decades, and might set a precedent for other buyers of Russian gas, who might also
want to change their price formulation. In traditional Gazprom contracts, the price of gas
depends on the price of oil, and only up to 15% of the price is a spot gas component. For
decades, this contractual linkage of the price of gas to oil was largely accepted as being open
and fair.
Since 2014, Ukraine has been buying reverse gas from Europe at such European spot hub
prices, and it has so far been more expensive than the traditional Gazprom contract. It is also
worth noting that spot prices are far more volatile, are seasonally demand-affected, and as
winter is a peak consumption season the prices can and do increase dramatically.
Why did Gazprom take their initial large claims to court knowing beforehand that it would be
impossible to get the tens of billions of dollars from Naftogaz or Ukraine without ruining both
through default? The first reason is that a "take or pay" clause was a key and mutually agreed
covenant of the contractual relationship, not a point to be discarded unilaterally by any
single party. The second reason was as a response to Naftogaz multi-billion lawsuit on the
transit of gas from Russia through Ukraine to Europe. The Ukrainian side believes that Gazprom
should pay them extra for not sending 110 billion cubic meters of gas through pipelines
annually across Ukraine. In the transit contract, there is no obligation for any such volumes
to be transited through Ukraine's pipelines.
To sum up this drama, the Stockholm arbitration declared that Naftogaz must honor their
contract, and buy from Gazprom 5 billion cubic meters of gas annually. As it turns out the
"take or pay" clause remains in force, but the volume has been significantly reduced. How this
volume of 5 billion cubic meters was arrived at remains a mystery, but one which will surely
become clear over time. The political spin, however, will be interesting to observe since
Ukraine must now buy (and pay for) this Russian gas. How will Kiev explain now having to buy
Russian gas when since 2014 it stridently proclaimed it shall never buy fuel from "that
aggressor nation."
The irony is that while this is a loss of face for Kiev politically, economically it
benefits the Ukrainian consumer. To date, Ukraine's purchases of "reverse gas" from Europe has
been far more expensive than that which was contracted reliably over the years by Gazprom. Now
Kiev will have to find the funds to pay for Gazprom's gas, settle their debt and ever-growing
fines, plus meet the rest of their energy needs by purchasing expensive reverse gas from
Europe. It will take spin that is a lot more imaginative from Kiev to package this settlement
into a believable political victory, and very creative accounting to get the money to pay for
it.
The key here is whether Russia will stop transit of gas via Ukraine or not.
Notable quotes:
"... A more far-reaching result from the Stockholm proceedings was the intention to void the traditional (Gazprom) formula for gas prices which is based on a linkage to the price of oil. Instead, the price of gas will be tied directly to the spot gas market such as the European hub. ..."
"... In traditional Gazprom contracts, the price of gas depends on the price of oil, and only up to 15% of the price is a spot gas component. For decades, this contractual linkage of the price of gas to oil was largely accepted as being open and fair. ..."
"... the Stockholm arbitration declared that Naftogaz must honor their contract, and buy from Gazprom 5 billion cubic meters of gas annually. As it turns out the "take or pay" clause remains in force, but the volume has been significantly reduced. ..."
"... The irony is that while this is a loss of face for Kiev politically, economically it benefits the Ukrainian consumer. To date, Ukraine's purchases of "reverse gas" from Europe has been far more expensive than that which was contracted reliably over the years by Gazprom. ..."
After 2014, Ukraine claimed that it was being overcharged, and therefore Naftogaz refused to
pay Gazprom their contracted price for gas. Instead, it paid unilaterally a different amount
that it subjectively considered "fair."
Gazprom, in keeping with mutually contracted terms and conditions, could only issue an
invoice for the resulting underpayment, and after Naftogaz still refused to pay (a debt of
approx. $2 billion), made any further deliveries of gas contingent on prepayment.
The arbitration additionally upheld Gazprom's position and denied Naftogaz any right to a
refund for gas priced between May 2011 and April 2014 or collect any of the claimed
"overcharged gas" totaling approximately $14 billion for that period. In sum, the price Kiev
claimed was "inflated" was judged as in Stockholm as baseless.
Therefore, the question of who is accountable and responsible for settling debt has been
clarified in Stockholm. Naftogaz must pay Gazprom $2 billion plus a fine calculated at 0.03%
per day for each day this debt remains unpaid. This fine has already reached $3 million since
the court decision on December 22nd, and if it not paid can reach an annualized figure of $216
million and still keep growing daily.
Like any political and economic story, there is quite a bit that does not make the flashy
headlines, but plays a role in contributing to the noise surrounding an issue. Naftogaz takes
satisfaction in that the settlement allowed that the gas price for the second quarter of 2014
was to be reduced from $485 to $352 per 1000 cubic meters, or 27%, thereby "saving" Ukraine
about $ 1.8 billion for 2014-2015. The price of $485 was in fact fixed for that one quarter,
and it was higher than the market price. The reason was that the March referendum and
subsequent reunification of Crimea within the Russian Federation happened then. Up until that
time, Russia had given Ukraine a discount of $100 per one thousand cubic meters of gas as
payment for renting the Crimean base for the Black Sea fleet. The Kharkov treaty with Ukraine
which dealt with the naval base was therefore canceled, as Crimea was once again Russia.
Without this discount, the price increased by that same discounted $100 in the contracted
quarterly price fix.
Key is Stockholm's recognition that the Russian gas price for Ukraine in 2011-2014 was fair,
which is much more important than the price fixed in that second quarter in question. It is
worth noting in the next third quarter of 2014 Gazprom was prepared to provide Ukraine with a
market price for gas again. However, as we all know today, since June 2014 Naftogaz has refused
to buy gas from Russia for political reasons and calling it an "aggressor nation."
A more far-reaching result from the Stockholm proceedings was the intention to void the
traditional (Gazprom) formula for gas prices which is based on a linkage to the price of oil.
Instead, the price of gas will be tied directly to the spot gas market such as the European
hub. Should this occur, then the future gas price for Ukraine will be linked to the cost of
fuel in the European hub. This would be a major departure from the traditional pricing Gazprom
has used for decades, and might set a precedent for other buyers of Russian gas, who might also
want to change their price formulation. In traditional Gazprom contracts, the price of gas
depends on the price of oil, and only up to 15% of the price is a spot gas component. For
decades, this contractual linkage of the price of gas to oil was largely accepted as being open
and fair.
Since 2014, Ukraine has been buying reverse gas from Europe at such European spot hub
prices, and it has so far been more expensive than the traditional Gazprom contract. It is also
worth noting that spot prices are far more volatile, are seasonally demand-affected, and as
winter is a peak consumption season the prices can and do increase dramatically.
Why did Gazprom take their initial large claims to court knowing beforehand that it would be
impossible to get the tens of billions of dollars from Naftogaz or Ukraine without ruining both
through default? The first reason is that a "take or pay" clause was a key and mutually agreed
covenant of the contractual relationship, not a point to be discarded unilaterally by any
single party. The second reason was as a response to Naftogaz multi-billion lawsuit on the
transit of gas from Russia through Ukraine to Europe. The Ukrainian side believes that Gazprom
should pay them extra for not sending 110 billion cubic meters of gas through pipelines
annually across Ukraine. In the transit contract, there is no obligation for any such volumes
to be transited through Ukraine's pipelines.
To sum up this drama, the Stockholm arbitration declared that Naftogaz must honor their
contract, and buy from Gazprom 5 billion cubic meters of gas annually. As it turns out the
"take or pay" clause remains in force, but the volume has been significantly reduced. How this
volume of 5 billion cubic meters was arrived at remains a mystery, but one which will surely
become clear over time. The political spin, however, will be interesting to observe since
Ukraine must now buy (and pay for) this Russian gas. How will Kiev explain now having to buy
Russian gas when since 2014 it stridently proclaimed it shall never buy fuel from "that
aggressor nation."
The irony is that while this is a loss of face for Kiev politically, economically it
benefits the Ukrainian consumer. To date, Ukraine's purchases of "reverse gas" from Europe has
been far more expensive than that which was contracted reliably over the years by Gazprom. Now
Kiev will have to find the funds to pay for Gazprom's gas, settle their debt and ever-growing
fines, plus meet the rest of their energy needs by purchasing expensive reverse gas from
Europe. It will take spin that is a lot more imaginative from Kiev to package this settlement
into a believable political victory, and very creative accounting to get the money to pay for
it.
"... By contrast the reduction in the gas price Naftogaz refers to from $485/tcm to $352 tcm which Naftogaz makes much of in its statement appears to apply only to gas supplied to Ukraine by Gazprom in the second quarter of 2014 and still sets the price of gas supplied to Ukraine by Gazprom higher than was demanded by Ukraine during this period. ..."
"... Ukraine recently borrowed $3 billion on the international financial markets at very high interest almost certainly in order to pay the $3 billion the High Court in London has ordered it to pay Russia. Whilst the $2 billion is technically a debt owed by Naftogaz not Ukraine and its non-payment would does not place Ukraine in a state of sovereign default, Gazprom is in a position to enforce the debt against Naftogaz's assets (including gas it buys) in the European Economic Area. It is difficult to see how Naftogaz and Ukraine can avoid payment of this debt. ..."
"... Has Ukraine actually gained anything from its long running gas dispute with Russia? ..."
On Friday 21st December 2017 the Stockholm Arbitration Court made a ruling in the legal
dispute between Ukraine's state owned gas monopoly Naftogaz and Russia's largely state owned
gas monopoly Gazprom.
In the hours after the decision – which like all decisions of the Stockholm
Arbitration Court – is not published, Naftogaz claimed victory in a short statement.
However over the course of the hours which followed Gazprom provided details of the decision
which suggests that the truth is the diametric opposite.
Here is how the Financial Times reports
the competing claims
Both Ukraine's Naftogaz and Russia's Gazprom both on Friday claimed victory as a Stockholm
arbitration tribunal issued the final award ruling in the first of two cases in a three-year
legal battle between the state-controlled energy companies, where total claims stand at some
$80bn.
An emailed statement from the Ukrainian company was titled:
"Naftogaz wins the gas sales arbitration case against Gazprom on all issues in
dispute."
The Stockholm arbitration tribunal -- in its final award ruling in a dispute over gas
supplies from prior years -- had, according to Naftogaz, struck down Gazprom's claim to
receive $56bn for gas contracted but not supplied through controversial "take-or-pay"
clauses. They were included in a supply contract Ukraine signed in 2009 after Gazprom dented
supplies to the EU by cutting all flow amid a price dispute -- including transit through the
country's vast pipeline systems. In a tweet Ukraine's foreign minister
Pavlo Klimkin wrote: "The victory of Naftogaz in the Stockholm arbitration: It's not a
knockout, but three knockdowns with obvious advantage."
But later Gazprom countered that arbitors "acknowledged the main points of the contract
were in effect and upheld the majority of Gazprom's demands for payment for gas supplies",
worth over $2bn. A Naftogaz official responded that the company never refused to pay for gas
supplied, but challenged price and conditions.
Given the tribunal does not make its decisions public, doubt loomed over which side was
the ultimate winner. Anticipation also grew over the second and final tribunal award expected
early next year over disputes both have concerning past gas transit obligations.
Friday's final Stockholm arbitration ruling follows a preliminary decision from last May
after which both sides were given time to settle monetary claims outside of the tribunal but
failed to reach agreement.
Here is the full Naftogaz statement:
"Today, the Tribunal at the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce has
completely rejected Gazprom take-or-pay claims to Naftogaz amounting to USD 56 billion for
2009-2017.
– Naftogaz succeeded at reducing future contract volume obligations by more than 10
times and made them relevant to its actual import needs.
– Price for gas off-taken by Naftogaz in 2Q 2014 reduced 27% from USD 485/tcm to USD
352/tcm. – Naftogaz saved USD 1.8 billion on gas purchased in 2014-2015 due to revision
of the contract price.
– Destination clause and other discriminatory provisions were declared invalid to
bring the contract in line with current European market standards.
– Naftogaz estimates the total positive financial effect of the arbitration over the
lifetime of the supply contract at over USD 75 billion.
– Naftogaz claims up to USD 16 billion in transit contract arbitration against
Gazprom; decision expected on 28 February 2018."
Gazprom said that in a separate decision on May 31 of this year, the tribunal denied
Naftogaz's application to review prices from May 2011 to April 2014, ordered it to pay $14bn
for gas supplies during that period, and said that the take-or-pay conditions applied for the
duration of the contract. Gazprom claimed that Naftogaz would have to pay it $2.18bn plus
interest of 0.03 per cent for every day the payments were late, and then pay for 5bn cm of
gas annually starting next year.
When the different sides give opposite accounts of the same decision it obviously becomes
difficult to say what the real decision actually is. However Gazprom says that the court upheld
(1) the main provisions of the contract; (2) the contract's take-or-pay provisions, these being
a particularly contentious issue in the contract; and (3) that Naftogaz has been ordered to pay
Gazprom $2 billion, presumably immediately, with interest for every day the amount is
unpaid.
By contrast the reduction in the gas price Naftogaz refers to from $485/tcm to $352 tcm
which Naftogaz makes much of in its statement appears to apply only to gas supplied to Ukraine
by Gazprom in the second quarter of 2014 and still sets the price of gas supplied to Ukraine by
Gazprom higher than was demanded by Ukraine during this period.
The key point here is that Russia agreed to reduce the price of gas supplied to Ukraine by
an agreement Russia's President Putin reached with Ukraine's President Yanukovich in December
2013. After the Maidan coup the new Ukrainian government went back on the agreement causing the
Russians to demand payment of the original price. However over the course of 2014, as energy
prices began first to slide and then crashed, and as it became clear that Ukraine was simply
not paying for its gas, Russia again reduced the price of the gas Ukraine had to pay.
What seems to have happened is that the Stockholm Arbitration Court decided to smooth out
the price of gas payable by Ukraine throughout 2014, which is the sort of thing arbitration
tribunals are regularly known to do, whilst leaving the essentials of the contract
unchanged.
If so then this is not a victory by Ukraine but a clearcut defeat, which Naftogaz and the
Ukrainian government have tried to spin into a victory by citing the reduction in the gas price
in the second quarter of 2014 and the reduction in future gas import volumes, neither of which
were contentious issues. By contrast it is clear that Ukraine and Naftogaz must pay the full
contractual price and abide by the contract's take-or-pay provisions for the whole of the
period of the contract prior to the second quarter of 2014.
What this means in terms of hard cash is that Ukraine must now pay Russia a further $2
billion on top of the $3 billion it was recently ordered to pay by the High Court in London.
Just as it is holding back on paying the $3 billion it was ordered to pay by the High Court
until the appeal process in London is finished, so it will try to hold off paying the $2
billion it has just been ordered to pay to Gazprom until the final decision of the Stockholm
Arbitration Court (thus the brave talk of Naftogaz's claims of "up to $16 billion transit
contract arbitration against Gazprom") but thereafter payment of the $2 billion will fall due.
I say this because the claim Gazprom owes Naftogaz "up to" $16 billion in transit fees looks
like it has been plucked out of the air.
What this means is that over the course of 2018 Ukraine will have to pay Russia $5 billion
($3 billion awarded by the High Court in London and $2 billion awarded by the Stockholm
Arbitration Court). Since the $2 billion awarded by the Stockholm Arbitration Court is
technically an arbitration award, Gazprom will need to convert it into a court Judgment before
it can enforce it, but that is merely a formality. At that point this debt will become not
merely due but legally enforceable as well.
Ukraine recently borrowed $3 billion on the international financial markets at very high
interest almost certainly in order to pay the $3 billion the High Court in London has ordered
it to pay Russia. Whilst the $2 billion is technically a debt owed by Naftogaz not Ukraine and
its non-payment would does not place Ukraine in a state of sovereign default, Gazprom is in a
position to enforce the debt against Naftogaz's assets (including gas it buys) in the European
Economic Area. It is difficult to see how Naftogaz and Ukraine can avoid payment of this
debt.
Has Ukraine actually gained anything from its long running gas dispute with Russia?
Naftogaz brags that Ukraine has saved up to $75 billion because it is no longer buying gas
from Russia. However this begs the question of whether the gas Ukraine is now importing from
Europe really is significantly cheaper than the gas Ukraine was buying from Russia? This is
debatable and with energy prices rising it is likely to become even less likely over time.
As reported by the permanent representative of the International Monetary Fund in the
Ukraine, Jost Longman, the Kiev authorities should increase Ukrainian gas tariffs to the level
of import parity. Longman argues that an increase in gas prices will have a positive effect on
the development of the free market and will teach the Ukrainians to use natural gas
economically. "In the end, the final goal is the implementation of a free gas market. On the
way to this, it is important to continue to adjust the price of gas in accordance with the
price of imports", said Longman. "One price for all types of consumer also eliminates the space
for corruptio," he added.
On 20 Dec., a court in Slovakia stopped gas supplies to "Naftogaz of Ukraine". The
decision was made pursuant to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration over a claim made by
the Italian company IUGas that its Ukrainian consumer owed it money.
The total amount of the claim, including interest and penalties, is approximately $21
million. An arbitration ruling was accepted on 19 December 2012 and relates to unpaid 2007
transactions .
Under international law, if the defendant has not fulfilled the resolution of the
arbitration, the plaintiff may apply to the courts of other states with a request that the
ruling be executed.
"Naftogaz of Ukraine" is analyzing the situation to determine its next steps, according
to the Ukrainian edition "Mirror of the Week".
For 11 months of 2017, "Naftogaz of Ukraine" had bought in Eastern Europe 20.9 billion
cubic metres of gas. Most of the supplies -- more than 8 billion cubic metres -- are in
Slovakia.
As written in iz.ru, arbitration is under consideration in Stockholm as regards the
lawsuit made by "Gazprom" against "Naftogaz", the decision on which will be issued by the court
no later than February next year. The adjusted amount of the claims made by the Russian company
was more than $ 37 billion.
All this is the Aggressor State's doing!
For the sake of freedom and democracy, the Ukraine must be supported!
Gazprom has responded to Naftogaz's statements about victory in court
The Stockholm arbitration has satisfied most of Gazprom's claims made against Naftogaz
Ukraine regarding payment for supplied gas, the company has said in a statement. In Moscow.
They stressed that the main demands of the Ukrainian side by the court had been
rejected.
The court did not recognize the right of Naftogaz to review the price of gas, the
deliveries of which were carried out from May 2011 to April 2014. Also, the Ukrainian side
was denied recovery of overpayment. Gazprom noted that the court found it necessary to apply
the "take or pay" principle (annual payment of a minimum amount of gas) before the expiry of
the contract.
"Naftogaz" has to pay back $2 billion in arrears and interest for late payment to
Gazprom. The Ukrainian side is also obliged from next year to take 5 billion cubic metres
from Russia annually.
Earlier on Friday, Naftogaz said that the court had awarded the victory to the
Ukrainian side. In Kiev, they stressed that Gazprom's "take-or-pay" requirements had been
"completely" rejected by the court, and the gas price for the second quarter of 2014 had been
lowered to $ 352 per thousand cubic metres.
The court considered contracts for the supply of gas from Russia to the Ukraine, as
well as gas transit through the Ukraine. They were signed back in 2009. The Ukraine, insisted
"Gazprom", did not get any gas 2012-2014, and also in individual quarters of 2015 and 2016.
"Naftogaz" asked the court to review the gas prices, and that overpayment be reimbursed and
that the ban on further resale of gas be cancelled.
Kremlin propaganda from a "Kremlin controlled" newspaper?
"Naftogaz won the gas sales arbitration case against Gazprom on all issues in dispute,"
Naftogaz said in an emailed statement.
It said the ruling was worth around $75 billion to Naftogaz in the long term, but
did not give a breakdown on how it reached the estimate. [My stress -- ME]
Meanwhile Gazprom said the court had satisfied most of Gazprom's claims and ruled that
the main terms of the contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom were valid.
Gazprom said the Stockholm court had ordered Naftogaz to pay more than $2 billion to
Gazprom for gas supply arrears and that it had also ordered Naftogaz to buy 5 bcm of gas from
Gazprom annually from 2018.
Estimated $75 billion in the "long term"?
Have to pay $2 billion to Gazprom in arrears now (not mention interest).
From 2018 (i.e. in just over a week's time) have to buy annually 5 bcm of gas off the
"aggressor state".
Of course; that's what Klimkin told them. Why should they check? Klimkin is always reliable,
and I'm sure he tweeted a press statement directly to them. Let them hold a Naftogaz victory
party if that's what they feel like doing. Just don't spend Russia's money on it. Because I
notice Ukraine has to pay Russia. I did not see anything in there about Russia having to pay
Ukraine. And so Ukraine can have all of that kind of victories it wants.
Ultimately, the court greatly reduced the amount of gas that Ukraine is contractually
obligated to buy from Russia. From 2018, "Naftogaz" should annually take and pay for up to 5
billion cubic metres instead of the original 52 billion cubic metres in any case it means the
resumption of gas purchases in Russia, which stopped in 2015, since when "Naftogaz" has been
buying all its fuel through reverse flow from Europe.
Investors should "think twice" about putting money into Nord Stream 2 due to
"uncertainties" around the Russian pipeline, the EU energy commissioner told
EUobserver.
"I would really think twice, or many more times, simply because there are a lot of
uncertainties," Maros Sefcovic said in an interview.
"It's the decision of the project promoters if they want to proceed in this atmosphere
which might lead to legal disputes down the line," he said
"Nord Stream 2 is supported by five major western European energy companies that have
each committed up to almost €1 billion to the implementation of the pipeline," the
consortium's Sebastian Sass said.
"It shows that there is both market demand and great confidence in Nord Stream 2," he
added.
Stefan Meister, an expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank in
Berlin, also said Russia had little to worry about from the EU.
"In Germany the overall impression is, that the project will come Merkel is not against
it. That means she supports it," he said.
Meister said the fact Gazprom was prepared to dig into its own pockets meant "the
investment risks are limited". He added that energy companies were used to working "in an
even more risky environment" in other parts of the world.
"Except the US sanctions, there are no real risks to stop the project," he said
####
Plenty more of Sefcovic blowing hot air out of every orifice at the link. Did someone slip
him some cocaine instead of sugar in his coffee before the interview? All mouth and no
trousers.
The US sanctions were partially anticompetitive move to block Russia selling its hydrocarbons to lucrative EU market.
Now Russia is becoming a major player in LNG and things might become more complex for the USA as all US efforts to built LNG
infrastructure int he USA in order to export the US LNG to Europe now are can backfire.
Notable quotes:
"... Russia plans to build 15 tankers as big as the 'Christophe de Margerie'. ..."
"... "Russia must accelerate work on development capacity to produce liquefied natural gas," Putin said at the ceremony. ..."
"... Costing $27 billion, the plant will have three production lines and a total capacity of 16.5 million tons of LNG per year. ..."
"... Shareholders of the Novatek project - Total and CNPC - will purchase LNG on a long-term basis. ..."
"... The ceremony was also attended by a member of Saudi Aramco's board of directors. The kingdom is considering taking part in Novatek's new project, Arctic LNG 2, according to Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak. ..."
Russia has opened a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in the country's northern region of
Yamal. The first tanker with LNG was launched on Friday by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The ice-breaking tanker is named after the former CEO of Total Christophe de Margerie who died
in a plane crash in Russia. The tanker can carry up to 173,000 cubic meters of LNG. Russia
plans to build 15 tankers as big as the 'Christophe de Margerie'.
"Russia must accelerate work on development capacity to produce liquefied natural
gas," Putin said at the ceremony.
The controlling stake in the enterprise belongs to Russian energy major Novatek. Twenty
percent each is owned by Total, and China's CNPC, and the remaining 9.9 percent belongs to the
China-based Silk Road Fund. Costing $27 billion, the plant will have three production lines and a total capacity of 16.5
million tons of LNG per year.
Almost 96 percent of the Yamal LNG plant's production has already been contracted. The main
customers will be the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, Novatek reported. Shareholders of the Novatek project - Total and CNPC - will purchase LNG on a long-term
basis.
The ceremony was also attended by a member of Saudi Aramco's board of directors. The kingdom
is considering taking part in Novatek's new project, Arctic LNG 2, according to Russian Energy
Minister Aleksandr Novak.
"... "President Trump instructed [his generals] in a very open way that the YPG will no longer be given weapons. He openly said
that this absurdity should have ended much earlier ," Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu told reporters after the phone call. ..."
"... The YPG is the Syrian sister organization of the Turkish-Kurdish terror group PKK. Some weapons the U.S. had delivered to the
YPK in Syria to fight the Islamic State have been recovered from PKK fighters in Turkey who were out to kill Turkish security personal.
Despite that, supply for the YPG continued. In total over 3,500 truckloads were provided to it by the U.S. military. Only recently the
YPK received some 120 armored Humvees , mine clearance vehicles and other equipment. ..."
"... The generals in the White House and other parts of the administration were caught flat-footed by the promise Trump has made.
The Washington Post writes : "Initially, the administration's national security team appeared surprised by the Turks' announcement and
uncertain what to say about it. The State Department referred questions to the White House, and hours passed with no confirmation from
the National Security Council." ..."
"... The U.S. military uses the YPG as proxy power in Syria to justify and support its occupation of north-east Syria, The intent
of the occupation is , for now, to press the Syrian government into agreeing to a U.S. controlled "regime change": ..."
"... When in 2014 the U.S. started to use Kurds in Syria as its foot-soldiers, it put the YPG under the mantle of the so called
Syrian Democratic Forces and paid some Syrian Arabs to join and keep up the subterfuge. This helped to counter the Turkish argument
that the U.S. was arming and supporting terrorists. But in May 2017 the U.S. announced to arm the YPG directly without the cover of
the SDF. The alleged purpose was to eliminate the Islamic State from the city of Raqqa. ..."
"... A spokesperson of the SDF, the ethnic Turkman Talaf Silo, recently defected and went over to the Turkish side. The Turkish
government is certainly well informed about the SDF and knows that its political and command structure is dominated by the YPK. The
whole concept is a sham. ..."
"... Sometimes it's hard to see if Trump actually believed what he was saying about foreign policy on the campaign trail -- but
either way it doesn't matter much as he seems incapable of navigating the labyrinth of the Deep State even if he had in independent
thought in his head. I don't expect US weapons to stop making their way into Kurdish hands as they try to extend their mini-Israel-with-oil
foothold in Syria. But it would certainly be a welcome sight if the US left Syria alone for once! ..."
"... Trump personally sent General Flynn to recruit back Erdogan and the Turks right before the election. Flynn wrote his now infamous
editorial "Our ally Turkey is in crisis and needs our support" and published in "The Hill". http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/305021-our-ally-turkey-is-in-crisis-and-needs-our-support
..."
"... But if you know the role he played for Trump in the campaign and then the post-election role as soon to be NSC advisor, you
will see that Trump was sending him to bring Turkey back into the fold after the coup attempt by CIA, Gulen and Turkey's AF and US State
Dept failed. ..."
"... Trump wanted to prevent the Turkish Stream. It was a huge rival to his LNG strategy. All these are why Flynn did what he did
for Trump. Now Trump has to battle CIA and State, as well as the CENTCOM-Israeli plans for insurgencies in Syria. It's not just the
Kurd issue or the other needs of NATO to hold the bases in Turkey. It's the whole southwest containment of Russian gas and Russian naval
power, and the reality of sharing the Mediterranean as well as MENA with the Bear. ..."
"... Furthermore, I've always been suspicious of Erdogan's 'turn' toward Russia. Many have suspected that the attempted coup was
staged by Erdogan (with CIA help?) so as to enable Erdogan to remain in office. IMO Erdogan joined the 'Assad must go!' effort not just
because he benefited from the oil trade but because he leans toward Sunnis (Surely he was aware of the thinking that: the road to Tehran
runs through Damascus .) ..."
President Trump is attempting to calm down the U.S.
conflict with Turkey . The
military junta in the White House has different
plans. It now attempts to circumvent the decision the president communicated to his Turkish counterpart. The result will be more
Turkish-U.S. acrimony.
Yesterday the Turkish foreign minister surprisingly
announced a phone call
President Trump had held with President Erdogan of Turkey.
United States President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke on the phone on Nov. 24 only days after
a Russia-Turkey-Iran summit on Syria, with Ankara saying that Washington has pledged not to send weapons to the People's Protection
Units (YPG) any more .
"President Trump instructed [his generals] in a very open way that the YPG will no longer be given weapons. He openly said
that this absurdity should have ended much earlier ," Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu told reporters after the phone call.
Will be speaking to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey this morning about bringing peace to the mess that I inherited
in the Middle East. I will get it all done, but what a mistake, in lives and dollars (6 trillion), to be there in the first place!
12:04 PM - 24 Nov 2017
During the phone call Trump must have escaped his minders for a moment and promptly tried to make, as announced, peace with Erdogan.
The issue of arming the YPG is really difficult for Turkey to swallow. Ending that would probably make up for the
recent NATO blunder of presenting the founder of modern Turkey Kemal Atatürk and Erdogan himself as enemies.
The YPG is the Syrian sister organization of the Turkish-Kurdish terror group PKK. Some weapons the U.S. had delivered to
the YPK in Syria to fight the Islamic State have been
recovered from PKK fighters in Turkey who were out to kill Turkish security personal. Despite that, supply for the YPG continued.
In total over
3,500 truckloads
were provided to it by the U.S. military. Only recently the YPK received
some 120 armored Humvees ,
mine clearance vehicles and other equipment.
The generals in the White House and other parts of the administration were caught flat-footed by the promise Trump has made.
The Washington Post
writes : "Initially, the administration's national security team appeared surprised by the Turks' announcement and uncertain
what to say about it. The State Department referred questions to the White House, and hours passed with no confirmation from the
National Security Council."
The White House finally released what the Associated Presscalled :
a cryptic statement about the phone call that said Trump had informed the Turk of "pending adjustments to the military support
provided to our partners on the ground in Syria."
Neither a read-out of the call nor the statement AP refers to are currently available on the White House website.
The U.S. military uses the YPG as proxy power in Syria to justify and support
its
occupation of north-east Syria, The intent of the occupation is , for now,
to press the Syrian government into agreeing to a U.S. controlled "regime change":
U.S. officials have said they plan to keep American troops in northern Syria -- and continue working with Kurdish fighters --
to pressure Assad to make concessions during peace talks brokered by the United Nations in Geneva, stalemated for three years
now. "We're not going to just walk away right now," Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said last week.
To solidify its position the U.S. needs to further build up and strengthen its YPG mercenary forces.
When in 2014 the U.S. started to use Kurds in Syria as its foot-soldiers, it put the YPG under the mantle of the so called
Syrian Democratic Forces and paid some Syrian Arabs to join and keep up the subterfuge. This helped to counter the Turkish argument
that the U.S. was arming and supporting terrorists. But in May 2017 the U.S.
announced
to arm the YPG directly without the cover of the SDF. The alleged purpose was to eliminate the Islamic State from the city of Raqqa.
The YPG had been unwilling to fight for the Arab city unless the U.S. would provide it with more money, military supplies and
support. All were provided. The U.S. special forces, who control the YPG fighters, directed an immense amount of aerial and artillery
ammunition against the city. Any potential enemy position was destroyed by large ammunition and intense bombing before the YPG infantry
proceeded. In the end few YPG fighters died in the fight. The Islamic State was let go or eliminated from the city but
so was the city of Raqqa . The intensity
of the bombardment of the medium size city was at times ten
times greater than the bombing in all of Afghanistan. Airwarsreported :
Since June, an estimated 20,000 munitions were fired in support of Coalition operations at Raqqa . Images captured by journalists
in the final days of the assault show a city in ruins
Several thousand civilians were killed in the indiscriminate onslaught.
The Islamic State in Syria and Iraq is defeated. It no longer holds any ground. There is no longer any justification to further
arm and supply the YPG or the dummy organization SDF.
But the generals want to continue to do so to further their larger plans. They are laying grounds to circumvent their president's
promise. The Wall Street Journal seems to be the only outlet to
pick up on the subterfuge:
President Donald Trump's administration is preparing to stop sending weapons directly to Kurdish militants battling Islamic State
in Syria, dealing a political blow to the U.S.'s most reliable ally in the civil war, officials said Friday.
...
The Turkish announcement came as a surprise in Washington, where military and political officials in Mr. Trump's administration
appeared to be caught off-guard. U.S. military officials said they had received no new guidance about supplying weapons to the
Kurdish forces. But they said there were no immediate plans to deliver any new weapons to the group. And the U.S. can continue
to provide the Kurdish forces with arms via the umbrella Syrian militant coalition
The "military officials" talking to the WSJ have found a way to negate Trump's promise. A spokesperson of the SDF, the ethnic
Turkman Talaf Silo, recently
defected and went over to the Turkish side. The Turkish government is certainly well informed about the SDF and knows that its
political and command structure is dominated by the YPK. The whole concept is a sham.
But the U.S. needs the YPG to keep control of north-east Syria. It has to continue to provide whatever the YPG demands, or it
will have to give up its larger scheme against Syria.
The Turkish government will soon find out that the U.S. again tried to pull wool over its eyes. Erdogan will be furious when he
discovers that the U.S. continues to supply war material to the YPG, even when those deliveries are covered up as supplies for the
SDF.
The Turkish government released
a photograph showing
Erdogan and five of his aids taking Trump's phonecall. Such a release and the announcement of the call by the Turkish foreign minister
are very unusual. Erdogan is taking prestige from the call and the public announcement is to make sure that Trump sticks to his promise.
This wide publication will also increase Erdogan's wrath when he finds out that he was again deceived.
Posted by b on November 25, 2017 at 12:14 PM |
Permalink
Sometimes it's hard to see if Trump actually believed what he was saying about foreign policy on the campaign trail -- but
either way it doesn't matter much as he seems incapable of navigating the labyrinth of the Deep State even if he had in independent
thought in his head. I don't expect US weapons to stop making their way into Kurdish hands as they try to extend their mini-Israel-with-oil
foothold in Syria. But it would certainly be a welcome sight if the US left Syria alone for once!
Some
interpret this act on Election eve as a pecuniary fulfillment by Flynn of a lobbying contract (which existed).
But if you know the role he played for Trump in the campaign and then the post-election role as soon to be NSC advisor,
you will see that Trump was sending him to bring Turkey back into the fold after the coup attempt by CIA, Gulen and Turkey's AF
and US State Dept failed.
Flynn understood the crucial need for US and NATO to hold Turkey and prevent the Russians from getting Erdogan as an ally for
Syria and the Black Sea, the Balkans and Mediterranean as well as Iran, Qatar and Eurasia. Look at what has transpired between
Turkey and Russia since. Gas will be flowing through the Turkish Stream and Erdogan conforms to Putin's wishes.
Trump wanted to prevent the Turkish Stream. It was a huge rival to his LNG strategy. All these are why Flynn did what he
did for Trump. Now Trump has to battle CIA and State, as well as the CENTCOM-Israeli plans for insurgencies in Syria. It's not
just the Kurd issue or the other needs of NATO to hold the bases in Turkey. It's the whole southwest containment of Russian gas
and Russian naval power, and the reality of sharing the Mediterranean as well as MENA with the Bear.
Flynn was on it for Trump. And the IC and State want him prosecuted for defying their efforts to replace Erdogan with a stooge
like Gulen. It looks like Mueller is pursuing that against the General.
Its not a problem for US to drop Kurds if they are no longer needed, BUT for now they are essential for US/Israel/Saudi goals,
therefore you can bet 100% Kurds support will continue. Trump's order (he hasn't made it official either) will be easily circumvented.
The real question is, what Resistance will do with the backstabbing Kurds? It wont be easy to make a deal while Kurds
maintain absurd demands and as long as they have full Axis of Terror support.
Go Iraq's way like they reclaimed Kirkuk? US might have sitten out that one, I doubt they'll allow this to happen in Syria
as well, unless they get something in return.
While America's standard duplicity of saying one thing while doing the opposite has been known for decades, they have been able
to play games mainly because of the weakness of the other actors in the region.
The tables have turned now, but America still thinks it holds top dog position.
Wordplay, semantics and legal loopholes wont be tolerated for very long, and when hundreds of US boots return home in body bags
a choice will have to be made - escalate, or run away.
Previous behavior dictates run away, but times have changed.
A cornered enemy is the most dangerous, and the USA has painted itself into a very small corner...
Gee. While reading B's article what got to my mind is: "Turkey is testing the ground". Whatever Trump said to Erdogan on the phone,
it seems to me that the Turks are playing a card to see how the different actors in the US that seems to follow different agendas
will react. If Turkey concludes that the US will continue to back YPG, it's split from the US and will be definitive.
Erdogan is shifting away from US/NATO. He even hinted today that he might talk to Assad. That's huge! I wouldn't be surprised
if Turkey leaves NATO sooner than later. And if it's the case, it will be a major move of a tectonic amplitude.
Trump.. "Will be speaking to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey this morning about bringing peace to the mess that I inherited
in the Middle East. I will get it all done, but what a mistake, in lives and dollars (6 trillion), to be there in the first place!"
Surely by now Erdogan must realise that whatever the US President says and promises will be circumvented by the State Department,
the Pentagon, the 17 US intel agencies (including the CIA and the NSA) and rogue individuals in these and other US government
departments and agencies, and in Congress as well (Insane McCain comes to mind)? Not to mention the fact that the Israeli government
and the pro-Israeli lobby on Capitol Hill exercise huge influence over sections of the US government.
If Erdogan hasn't figured out the schizoid behaviour of the US from past Turkish experience and the recent experience of Turkey's
neighbours (and the Ukraine is one such neighbour), he must not be receiving good information.
Though as Jean says, perhaps Erdogan is giving the US one last chance to demonstrate that it has a coherent and reliable policy
towards the Middle East.
Well, the US policy has been coherent and reliable in the last years. It enhanced local conflicts, supported both sides at
the same time but with different intensities. Whoever wins would be "our man". Old stuff since the Byzantine period. It always
takes a lot of time to prove the single actions that were done. In most cases we learn about it years later. The delay is so big
and unpleasant that quite a number of folks escapes to stupid narratives that explain everything in one step, and therefore nothing.
By the way: is the interest of Kurds to remain under the umbrella of the Syrian state but not be governed by Baath type of Arabic
nationalism illegitimate?
The Kurds (PKK basically) are only necessary to give a "face" to the force the US is trying to align in E. Syria. The "fighting"
against ISIS (if there really was any) is coming to a close. The Chiefs of ISIS have been airlifted to somewhere nearby, and the
foreign mercenary forces sent elsewhere by convoy. ALL the valuable personnel have now become "HTS2" with reversible vests. These,
plus the US special forces are the basis of a new armed anti-Syrian force. (Note that one general let slip that there are 5'000
US forces in E-Syria - not the 500 spoken of in the MSM).
So Trump may well be correct in saying that the Kurds (specifically) will not get any more arms - because they have other demands
and might make peace with the Syrian Government, to keep at least some part of their territorial gains. The ISIS "bretheren" and
foreign mercenaries do not want any peaceful solution because it would mean their elimination.. So The CIA and Pentagon will probably
continue arms supplies to "HTS2" - but not the Kurds.
(ex-ISIS members; Some are from Saudi Arabia, Qatar - the EU and the US, as well as parts of Russia and China. They are not
farming types but will find themselves with some of the best arable land in Syria. Which belonged to Syrian-arabs-christians-Druzes-Yadzis
etc. Who wil want their properties back.)
Note that the US forces at Tanf are deliberately not letting humanitarian help reach the nearby refugee camp. Starvation and
deprivation will force many of the younger members to become US paid terrorists.
thanks b.. i tend to agree with @4 jean and @5 jen... the way i see it, there is either a real disconnect inside the usa where
the president gets to say one thing, but another part of the establishment can do another, or trump has made his last lie to turkey
here and turkey is going to say good bye to it's involvement with the usa in any way that can be trusted.. seems like some kind
of internal usa conflict to me at this point, but maybe it is all smoke and mirrors to continue on with the same charade.. i mostly
think internal usa conflict at this point..
Odd that no one has mentioned the fact the US was behind the attempted coup, where Erdogan was on a plane with two rogue Syrian
jets that stood down rather than execute the kill shot. I have read opinion that the fighter pilots were "lit up" by Russian missile
batteries and informed by radio they would not survive unless they shut down their weapons targeting immediately. This is probably
a favour Putin reminds Erdogan of on a regular basis, whenever Erdo tries to play Sultan. The attempted coup/asassination also
shows Erdogan exactly how much he can trust the US/Zionists at any level.
And Edrogan must also know Syria was once at least partly in the US-orbit, as Syria was the destination for many well-documented
US-ordered rendition/torture cases. It is probable Mossad (or their proxy thugs) killed Assad's father and older brother, so Erdo
knows he's better relying on Putin than Trumpty Dumbdy.
Erdogan is about to make a u-turn toward Syria. He is furious at Saudi Arabia for boycotting its ally Qatar, for talking about
owning Sunni Islam and by the continuous support of Islamists and Sunni Kurds in Syria.
Erdogan is preparing the turkish public opinion to a shift away from the USA-Israeli axis. This may get him many points in the
2019 election if the war in Syria is stopped, most Syrian refugees are back, Turkish companies are involved in the reconstruction
and the YPG neutralized. Erdogan has 1 year and half to make this to happen. For that he badly needs Bashar al Assad and his army
on his side.
Therefore he is evaluating what is the next move and he needs to know where the USA is standing about Turkey and Syria. Until
now the messages from the USA are contradictory yet Erdogan keeps telling his supporters that the USA is plotting against Turkey
and against Islam. Erdogan's reputation also is been threatened by the outcome of Reza Zarrab's trial in the US where the corruption
of his party may be exposed.
That is why Erdogan is making another check about the US intentions before Erdogan he starts the irreversible shift toward
the Iran-Russia (+Qatar and Syria) axis.
missing in this analysis is oil gas ... producers, refiners, slavers, middle crooks, and the LNG crowd :Israel, Fracking, LNG
and wall street... these are the underlying directing forces that will ultimately dictate when the outsiders have had enough fight
against Assad over Assad's oil and Assad's refusal to allow outsiders to install their pipelines. Until then, gangland intelligence
agencies will continue the divide, destroy and conquer strategies sufficient to keep the profits flowing. The politicians cannot
move until the underlying corruptions resolve..
The word 'byzantine' has been used for centuries to describe the intricate and multi-leveled forms of agreement, betrayal, treachery
and achievement among the shifting power brokers in the region. The US alone has three major and another three minor players at
work - often fighting each other. If however, it thinks it can outplay people whose lives are steeped in such a living tradition,
it is sadly deluded and will one day be in for a very rude surprise. Even the Russians have had difficulty navigating that maze.
When confronted with such a 'Gordian knot' of treachery and shifting alliances, Alexander the Great drew his sword and cut
through it with a vision informed by the sage Socrates as taught by Aristotle.
Despite claiming to represent such a western heritage, the US has no such Socratic wisdom, no Aristotelian logic, and no visionary
leadership that could enable it to do what Alexander did. Lacking this, it is destined to get lost in its' own hubris, and be
consumed by our current version of that region's gordian knot.
'...By the way: is the interest of Kurds to remain under the umbrella of the Syrian state but not be governed by Baath type
of Arabic nationalism illegitimate?..'
...showing that he either knows only the crap spouted by wikipedia...or nothing at all about the Baath party...
...which happens to be a socialist and secular party interested in pan-Arab unity...not nationalism...[an obvious oxymoron
to be pan-national and 'nationalist' at the same time...]
Of course there is always a 'better way'...right Hausmaus...?
The Baath socialism under Saddam in Iraq was no good for anyone we recall...especially women, students, sick people etc...
A 'better way' has since been installed and it is working beautifully...all can agree...
Same thing in Libya...where the Great Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya was no good for anyone...
Of course everyone wanted the 'Better Way'...all those doctoral graduates with free education and guaranteed jobs...a standard
of living better than some European countries...etc...
Again...removing the 'socialist' Kadafi has worked out wonderfully...
We now have black African slaves sold in open air markets...where before they did all the broom pushing that was beneath the
dignity of the Libyan Arabs...
...and were quite happy to stay there and have a job and paycheck...instead of now flooding the shores of Italy in anything
that can float...
Oh yes...why would anyone in Syria want to be governed by the socialist Baath party...?
...especially the Kurds...who just over the border in Turkey are not even recognized as humans...never mind speaking their
own language...
I'd really hoped that Donald Trump® would be the "outsider" that both the MSM and he have been insisting he is for the past couple
of years. Other than the Reality TV Show faux conflicts with which the MSM entertains us nightly, I see no such "rogue" Administration.
This say one thing, and do the other has been US foreign policy forever.
Recall, for instance that on February 21, 2014, Obama's State Department issued a statement hailing Ukrainian President Yanukovych
for signing an agreement with the "pro-democracy Maidan Protest" leaders in which he acquiesced to all of their demands.
Then, on February 22, 2014, the US State Department cheered the "peaceful and Constitutional" coup after neo-nazis stormed
the Parliament.
A few months later, Secretary of State Kerry hailed the Minsk Treaty to end the war in Ukraine. Later that day, Vickie Nuland
said there was no way her Ukies would stop shelling civilians, and sure enough they didn't (until they'd been on the retreat for
weeks, and came whimpering back to the negotiations table).
A couple years later, Kerry announced that the US and Russia would coordinate aerial assaults in Syria. The next day, "Defense"
Secretary Carter said, "no way," and within a week or so, we "accidentally" bombed Syrian forces at Deir ez Zoir for over an hour.
From my perspective, they keep us chasing the next squirrel, while bickering amongst each other about each squirrel. But the
wolves are still devouring the lambs, with only the Bear preventing a complete extinction.
What we know with at least some level of confidence...
Dump is not the 'decider'...the junta is...he's just a cardboard cutout sitting behind the oval office desk...
And he's got no one to blame but himself...he came in talking a big game about cleaning house and got himself cleaned out of
being an actual president...
This was inevitable from the moment he caved on Flynn...the only person he didn't need to vet with the senate...and a position
that wields a lot of power...
This was his undoing on many levels...not only because he faced a hostile deep state and even his own party in congress with
no one by his side [other than Flynn]...
...but because it showed that he had no balls and would not stand by his man...
This is not the stuff leaders are made of...
The same BS we see with Turkey is playing out with Russia on the Ukraine issue...
Now the junta and their enablers in congress want to start sending offensive arms to Ukraine...Dump and his platitudes to Putin...no
matter how much he may mean it...mean nothing...he's not in charge...
I think that Jean @4 has the best take on this: Erdoğan went very public on Trump's "promise" in a classic put-up-or-shut-up challenge
to the USA.
Either the word of a POTUS means something or it doesn't, and if it doesn't then Turkey is going to join Russia in concluding
that the USA as simply not-agreement-capable.
Erdoğan will then say "enough!!!", give the USA the two-finger-salute, and then take Turkey out of NATO.
And the best thing about it will be that McMaster, Kelly and Mathis will be so obsessed with playing their petty little games
that they won't see it coming.
It's hard to tell what Erdoğan is doing or intending other than that he is navigating something - objective TBD. It'll be interesting
to see if he constrains the use of Incirlik airbase should the US keep arming the YPG/PKK forces. Airpower is the enabler (sole
enabler, IMO) of the/any Kurdish overreach inside Syria. Seems like Erdoğan holds the ace card in this muddle but has yet to play
it.
Seems like Turkey has more than one card to play. A commenter on another site mentioned recently that the US really doesn't
want Erdogan to have that S-400 system from Russia. Got me thinking, could Russia have deliberately loaded Erdogan's hand with
that additional card to help him negotiate with the US?
Turkey may well leave NATO and as others have pointed out, this would be a game changer far beyond the matter of the US's illegal
presence in NE Syria. This possibility brings immense existential gravitas to Erdogan's position right now. He could ask
for many concessions at this point, not to leave. And from the Eurasian point of view, it doesn't matter if he leaves or stays,
while from the western view, it matters greatly.
Would the US give up Syria, in order to keep Turkey in NATO? It's a western dichotomy, not one that affects Asia. It would
be simple to throw S-400 at that dynamic to watch it squirm.
The plays the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the King.
- Hamlet
As the endgame plays out, Erdogan's conscience may be revealed.
b has made the point that the partition that US-led proxy forces have carved out is unsustainable. But it would be sustainable
if Erdogan can be convinced to allow trade via Turkey.
For that reason, I thought Trump's ceasing direct military aid to the Kurds made sense as it provided Erdogan with an excuse
to allow land routes for trade/supply. Erdogan can argue that he wants to encourage such good behavior and doesn't want to make
US an enemy (Turkey is still a NATO country).
Furthermore, I've always been suspicious of Erdogan's 'turn' toward Russia. Many have suspected that the attempted coup
was staged by Erdogan (with CIA help?) so as to enable Erdogan to remain in office. IMO Erdogan joined the 'Assad must go!' effort
not just because he benefited from the oil trade but because he leans toward Sunnis (Surely he was aware of the thinking that:
the road to Tehran runs through Damascus .)
Hasn't Erdogan's vehement anti-Kurdish stance done R+6 a disservice? It seems to me that it has helped USA to convince
Kurds to fight for them and has also been a convenient excuse for Erdogan to hold onto Idlib where al Queda forces have refuge.
If Erdogan was really soooo angry with Washington, and soooo dependent on Moscow, then why not relax his anti-Kurdish
stance so as to bring Kurds back into the Syrian orbit?
Jackrabbit @20:
Erdogan may feel that if he relaxed his stance against the Syrian Kurds, it could embolden Turkish Kurds to further pursue their
agenda. It would also make him appear weak towards his supporters.
Erdogan is NOT going to leave NATO. Why should he? It would be the stupidest chess move ever? He's in the club and they can't
kick him out. He can cause all the trouble he wants and hobble that huge machine that is the western alliance. He will not get
EU membership, but he has his NATO ID CARD and that ain't bad. Erdo now knows that the poor bastard Trumps is WORTHLESS that he
is a toothless executive in name only. This is a wake up call, if I were Erdo, I would be very afraid of the USA and it's Syria,
MENA policy. It is being run by LUNATICS and is a slow moving train wreak. So for now, Erdo must be looking at Moscow, admiring
Putin for this is a man who has his shit together and truly knows how to run a country. Maybe even a sense of admiration and more
respect for Putin is even present. If I were Erdo, I'd double down in my support for Russia's Syria policy.
You do not get it:
„...which happens to be a socialist and secular party interested in pan-Arab unity...not nationalism..."
According to this ideology the coherence of a society comes from where? And who is excluded if one applies it?
So your contribution is just a rant using rancidic rhetoric tools. But I will not call you „flunkerbandit". My advice is to move
to this area and have a look into such a society from a more close position. Armchair type of vocal leadership does not help.
@23 "Erdogan is NOT going to leave NATO. Why should he?"
I guess one possible reason would be this: as long as Turkey remains in NATO then he is obliged to allow a US military presence
in his country, and that's just asking for another attempt at a military coup.
After all, wasn't Incirlik airbase a hotbed of coup-plotters during the last coup attempt?
"when the Syrian settlement is achieved, Syria's democratic forces will join the Syrian army." "When the Syrian state stabilizes, we can say that the Americans did what they said, then withdraw as they did in Iraq and
set a date for their departure and leave."
Nothing new here, nothing good either. Kurds so far are keeping up their demands of de-facto independence under fig-leaf of
"we are part of federalised Syria" with weak central government and autonomous Kurds. Thats how US plan to castrate Syria. Russia
offered cultural autonomy, Kurds rejected.
As for Americans "withdrawing" willfully, it never happened. Iraq had to kick them out, and then US used ISIS and Kurds to
get back in.
As for Syria's stabilization part, US is doing everything in its power to prevent it.
@Yeah Right #26
Turkey is not obliged to keep foreign troops in their country to remain in NATO. De Gaulle invited the US to leave France in 1967
but is still a member of NATO
@31 France actually withdrew from NATO in 1966. It remained "committed" to the collective defence of western Europe, without being,
you know, "committed" to it.
So, yeah, France kicked all the foreign troops out of France in 1967, precisely because its withdrawal from NATO's Integrated
Military Command meant that the French were no longer under any obligation to allow NATO troops on its soil.
But France had to formally withdraw from that Command first, and the reason that de Gaulle gave for withdrawing were exactly
that: remaining meant ceding sovereignty to a supra-national organization i.e. NATO Integrated Military Command.
That France retained "membership" of NATO's political organizations even after that withdrawal was little more than a fig-leaf.
After all, NATO's purpose isn't "political", it is "military".
"The Decider" is Trump's apparent self image. He can't be enjoying the Presidency and the controls exerted upon him by others
among the "Deep State" (whom I suppose have effectively cowed him into behaving via serious threats).
If he already had money and power, as it appears that he had, he gained little by taking the crown. He has less power because
he is now controlled by a number of forces (CIA, NSA, Media, MIC and etc.) as he remains under constant assault by his natural
opposition.
Big mistake dumping Flynn.
Now you take another kind of asshole in the person of Obama - a guy that had nothing - you have a malleable character who enjoys
the pomp and circumstance. Really didn't need any persuading to do anything required of him.
Here is a recent report from the Turkish Prime Minister supporting Trump's "lie" about ending support for the Kurds....what will
history show occured?
ISTANBUL, Nov. 26 (Xinhua) -- Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on Sunday that his country is expecting the United
States to end its partnership with the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing, the People's Protection
Units (YPG).
"Since the very beginning, we have said that it is wrong for the U.S. to partner with PKK's cousin PYD and YPG in the fight
against Daesh (Islamic State) terrorist group," Yildirim told the press in Istanbul prior to his departure for Britain.
Ankara sees the Kurdish groups as an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighting against the Turkish government
for over 30 years, while Washington regards them as a reliable ground force against the Islamic State (IS), also known as Daesh.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday spoke to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the phone, pledging not to
provide weapons to the YPG any more, an irritant that has hurt bilateral ties, according to the Turkish side.
Yildirim noted that Washington has described it as an obligation rather than an option to support the Kurdish groups on the
ground. "But since Daesh (IS) is now eliminated then this obligation has disappeared," he added.
It would be nice if Erdogan when withdrawing from NATO (Assuming he does this in the next 12-18 months) would say something like.
"We really like President Trump - and we trust his word implicitly. The problem is, although we trust his word, we know
he is not in control so his word is useless and best ignored. Though of course - we still trust he means well."
That would be a nice backhander to hear from Erdopig.
Speculation about Turkey leaving NATO seems farfetched. Turkey has NATO over a barrel. It has been a member for decades and what
would it gain by leaving? Nothing. By staying it continues to influence and needle at the same time. Turkey will only leave when
NATO throws it out, which isn't going to happen.
"... Alaska LNG, backed by the state-run Alaska Gasline Development Corp, anticipates a long pipeline carrying the fuel from the North Slope, which has proven gas reserves of over 35 trillion cubic feet. The state governor Bill Walker plans to sign final agreements by the end of next year, with groundbreaking in 2019. ..."
A preliminary gas deal worth over $43 billion sealed between China and the US State of Alaska
is far from guaranteed, according to experts. On Thursday, China's biggest state-run energy corporation
Sinopec, along with one of the country's top banks and a sovereign wealth fund agreed to go ahead
with an export terminal for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Alaska as well as a 1,290-kilometer pipeline
to deliver fuel to China. The project is aimed at developing facilities so gas can be piped to the
Alaska coast, where it can be liquefied and shipped to China and other Asian countries.
The announcement, which lacked any details about binding agreements or financing, was made during
US President Trump's visit to China. However, some analysts are saying the project is not likely
to go ahead.
"This is a typical announcement that comes out of these big summits. You really can't build,
or get financing for a big project, unless all those pieces are in place," said Jason Feer of
energy consultancy Poten & Partners, as quoted by Reuters.
Alaska LNG, backed by the state-run Alaska Gasline Development Corp, anticipates a long pipeline
carrying the fuel from the North Slope, which has proven gas reserves of over 35 trillion cubic feet.
The state governor Bill Walker plans to sign final agreements by the end of next year, with groundbreaking
in 2019.
The lengthy pipeline could cost a billion dollars, according to Larry Persily, former US coordinator
for Alaska natural gas projects. Persily added that multinationals such as BP, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips
had been working on the pipeline enterprise, but stepped away.
"If companies don't think this is a good time to put their money into it, why should the state?
As the governor has explained, the state has an overriding interest in getting this done -- companies
have other places they can invest their money," he said as quoted by AP.
China is trying to fight pollution and get rid of its reliance on coal and is chasing more supplies
of natural gas, according to Mark Barteau, director of the University of Michigan's Energy Institute,
as quoted by the agency.
"They have exhibited a long-term interest in having a large and secure gas supply, and I think
this is just perhaps the largest -- but by no means the first -- step they've taken to achieve that,"
he said.
The EU executive sees Russia's plan to double the gas it could pump under the Baltic
Sea to Germany, bypassing traditional routes via Ukraine, as undercutting EU efforts to
reduce dependence on Moscow and its support for Kyiv.
The move dovetails with the Commission's proposal for a mandate from member states to
negotiate with Russia over objections to the pipeline.
Even with the changes, EU regulators say they may need to seek talks with Russia as it
cannot impose its law on the stretch of the pipeline that is outside its territory.
"This proposal does not solve all the problems and some of those need to be
negotiated," an EU official said.
Under the proposed changes to the gas directive, seen by Reuters, all import pipelines
would have to comply with EU rules requiring pipelines not be owned directly by gas
suppliers, non-discriminatory tariffs, transparent operations and at least 10% of capacity be
made available to third parties.
"The Gas Directive in its entirety will become applicable to pipelines to and from
third countries, including existing and future pipelines, up to the border of EU
jurisdiction," the proposals says .
####
More stupidity at the link, but this looks like the same rubbish leaked to EUObserver a
week or so ago that I posted here. I have a question. If this is actually becomes the case,
then will Brussels rule that TAP and 'field pipes' which currently have an exemption from EU
law then become illegal ?
I don't see how they could keep them as exceptions. Brussels is just trying itself in
knots to make is seem relevant where it is actually powerless to do anything. As for the line
above ' may need to seek talks with Russia..', WTF?
You have to give the European Commission credit for grit and persistence; they never give up . So what should be named
the Stop Nord Stream II Commission now announces it is contemplating a 'legal tweak' which
will allow it to declare the Nord Stream II pipeline subject to the Third Energy Package
rules, while the first pipeline was not. That would be quite a feat, and I'm betting it will
never happen because too many European states oppose it. But it is significant that only the
complainers get to be heard – Poland, the Baltics and Brussels. And ukraine, of course,
which always has a voice because I guess it is an honorary member of the EU or something.
Keep that term in mind – 'legal tweak', because it basically means changing the law
to allow you to do something it previously would not, without any requirement to show why
such a change was broadly necessary. You might want to think about 'legal tweaks' of your own
to announce you are arbitrarily raising the speed limit on your route home, because it will
allow you to get home faster.
Airheads like Maros Sefcovic seem to have the idea that they can force Russia to continue
transiting gas through Ukraine by putting ever more stumbling blocks in its way. But they
should be careful. Even in the very unlikely event they achieved success, Russia could simply
announce
the new delivery point is the Russia/Ukraine border , and that the EU and its new bestest
buddy are responsible for transit beyond that point. It could cover itself by insisting on
official EU signature at the transit point that x amount had been delivered to the border, so
that there could be no accusations that Russia was withholding gas. Then the EU would end up
paying to fix Ukraine's rusty-teakettle pipeline network, as well as having to tolerate all
its staged outages and extortion tactics to squeeze more money for itself.
Russia should sign a deal with Germany for the latter to build a stub gas pipeline to
international waters to connect to the Nord Stream II pipe. The EU has zero jurisdiction over
international waters. Germany controls its own EEZ and the EU can't hijack it by definition.
Germany would then buy Russian gas and resell it to the other EU members. Let's see these EU
legal eagles counteract this.
An ambitious gas pipeline project connecting Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria
received a shot in the arm on Thursday (28 September), when all of the involved parties
signed a memorandum of understanding for the project, a vital part of Europe's efforts to
wean itself off Russian gas
"We are at a very advanced stage with the BRUA project. We issued the building permit, we
are conducting procedures for assigning the construction works, and contracts have already
been signed for the design part and for the part concerning equipment for stations," Romanian
Energy Minister Toma Petcu revealed.
"In December, the contracts for the execution part are going to be signed and pipe
procurement is going to be finalised," Petcu added
####
BRUA will be able to transport gas from the Black Sea and, when supply comes online at the
end of the decade, from the Caspian too.
It is intended to cut Eastern and Central Europe's dependence on Russian gas, an
important part of the European Commission's third energy package and the CESEC group's
objectives.
Black Sea gas? Where again? Crimea does apparently have significant off-shore deposits of
undeveloped gas. It is difficult to find an article via Google on the subject that does not
have an anti-Russian slant (you know, something like just facts) but here is something on the
topic:
Thinking more about the BRUA pipe line, It could be a make work project for the region with
PC overtones (e.g. Crimea's little escapade will soon end bringing Black Sea gas back to
Europe). The usual graft and corruption will also keep Brussels bureaucrats and local
counterparts fat and happy.
It fits in to the Energy Union progapanda that Brussels is spreading. There at least it makes
some sense that where ever you are in the EU, member states will have access to energy
resources from wherever else in the EU. Of course, the real question is of price and is
something completely different. Does anyone else think it is insane to ship LNG to Krk off
Croatia to be pipelined to the rest of the Balkans? Is this a bribe to Qatar or something? Or
American LNG to say Antwerp or through the Med?
Still, the EU pipeline projects are small change compared to the amount spend on the
Common Agricultural Policy and other stuff. I guess its just another 'Do Something' schtick
to make Brussels seem relevant to EU citizens like me. Speaking of which, I enjoyed data and
telecoms free roaming this summer when I went to the g/f's folk's place this summer. It was..
surreal. And normal. The fact that national EU telecomms operators have been shafting their
own customers so hard and for so long and it took f($*ing Brussels to force it through
shows which side their own states are on. A sorry state indeed!
It must be said again – Russia does not intend to sit idle in the LNG business either.
And if the planned Kaliningrad terminal comes online by the end of this year as planned , it will not
only position Russia attractively in the LNG market (does it cost more to bring European gas
cargoes from Kaliningrad, or across the Atlantic?), it will bring increased energy
independence to Kaliningrad itself. A cruise terminal is planned as well.
These clowns are a combination of corrupt and delusional. The only non-Russian gas coming via
the Black Sea would be hypothetical sources via Turkey from Qatar/Iran and the Caspian basin.
There is no source of natural gas in the Black Sea that, for example, Bulgaria could develop
to feed this pipe.
Europe is forever bragging about weaning itself off of Russian gas, when what it is mostly
doing is taking Russian gas and moving it around through connectors, and then reselling it to
each other. A prime example – although not European – is Ukraine, which claims to
have taken no Russian gas throughout 2015 and 2016 during which time it sourced most of its
gas from Slovakia, supplied at 90% and above levels by Russia.
Ukraine claims to be getting gas from Yurrup at cheaper prices than Gazprom offered for
direct supplies. If that's true, Slovakia is selling gas to Ukraine for less than it paid for
it. And there's a word for people like that.
No so fast... Five years later (the article was written in 2013) the US empire is still
going strong. meanwhile from 2013 to 2017 it managed to counterattack resource
nationalists (killing Kaddafi) and and win in Libya, making the country a colony again.
I think Venezuela is the next. Oil prices
dropped more then 50% in 2014 (from over $100 to less then $50 per barrel ) and did not yet recovered...
Notable quotes:
"... For an example of the ethical problems of empire, think about the completely unjustifiable attacks on civilians done by the U.S. in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and most prominently in Pakistan and Yemen, especially done by drones. Or consider U.S. use of torture, from Abu Ghraib to Guantanamo Bay. As everyone knows by now, ethical and humanitarian appeals have been completely and categorically rejected by U.S. leaders, not beginning with 9-11, certainly rejected with greater vigor since then. ..."
"... But there is another, often overlooked, analysis of U.S. actions, that is the logical result of engaging in the actions of Empire, and that concerns the logical consequence of using massive amounts of resources to attempt to control the resources being used (the second use of the term resources here includes citizens; the people of a city or nation). As the economic, logistic, and humanitarian costs all rise in direct proportion to Empire's actions, the sustaining of the Empire becomes impossible, on the basis of its own internal logic. ..."
"... When the issue of blowback is added "i.e. that other nations and peoples are unlikely to cooperate willingly in having their resources, humanity, and very lives removed from them "the end result, Empire's fall, could be hastened, and is certainly assured. We can now predict not only how it will happen, but also its imminent coming. ..."
"... First, the heaviest resource consumers of fossil fuels, in order, are the U.S. military, U.S. citizens, China, and India. The Department of Defense per capita energy consumption is 10 times more than per capita energy consumption in China, or 30 times more than that of Africa. ..."
"... Oil accounts for more than three-fourths of DoD’s total energy consumption. The Post Carbon Institute estimates that abroad alone, the U.S. military consumes about 150,000 barrels per day. In 2006, for example, the Air Force consumed 2.6 billion gallons of jet-fuel, which is the same amount of fuel U.S. airplanes consumed during all of WWII (between December 1941 and August 1945) (from The Resilience Group of the Post Carbon Institute, www.resilience.org ). ..."
"... This essays suggests that these two solid arguments should now be combined with an institutional-logical analysis to demonstrate not only the intrinsic, natural limits to empire, but to show reasons how and why empire must and will ultimately disintegrate due to the hubris of ignoring natural limitations of unbridled consumption coupled with attempts at singular control over others' resources and peoples. ..."
There are numerous legal and ethical arguments that can and have been made in opposition to
U.S. foreign policy of raw aggression. For an example of the illegalities of U.S. Empire,
examine the Geneva Conventions, all four of which directly proscribe what they each call
outrages to human dignity, in particular
humiliating and degrading treatment (I, 1, 3). The
outrages are named specifically as torture, mutilation, cruel
treatment, taking hostages, murder, biological experimentation, and passing sentences on
prisoners without benefit of a regularly constituted
court.
Additionally, the Hague Conventions of 1899 and 1907 both underscore the Geneva Conventions
and expand the traditional ethical concerns to rights and duties of neutral states by banning
the use of poison gases or arms, destroying or seizing enemy private property, attacking towns
and cities that are undefended, pillaging, collective punishment, servility of enemy citizens,
and bullets made to wreak havoc once inside the human body. Prescriptions to limit the conduct
of war include the requirements to warn towns of impending attacks, to protect cultural,
religious, and health institutions, and to insure public order and safety.
For an example of the ethical problems of empire, think about the completely unjustifiable
attacks on civilians done by the U.S. in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and most prominently
in Pakistan and Yemen, especially done by drones. Or consider U.S. use of torture, from Abu
Ghraib to Guantanamo Bay. As everyone knows by now, ethical and humanitarian appeals have been
completely and categorically rejected by U.S. leaders, not beginning with 9-11, certainly
rejected with greater vigor since then.
But there is another, often overlooked, analysis of U.S. actions, that is the logical result
of engaging in the actions of Empire, and that concerns the logical consequence of using
massive amounts of resources to attempt to control the resources being used (the second use of
the term resources here includes citizens; the people of a
city or nation). As the economic, logistic, and humanitarian costs all rise in direct
proportion to Empire's actions, the sustaining of the Empire becomes
impossible, on the basis of its own internal logic.
In whatever historical epoch you choose, if you take your compass and draw a circle around
any given tribe, you can see the desired extent of their territorial claims for resource
control. One thus can see that particular group's
resource consumption;
and
circle of desired resource control. But when two further historical developments are
added, such as
technologically-driven consumption (e.g. fossil-fuel guzzling appliances and
cars, etc.); and
now necessary desires for global resources needed to feed that
group's consumption habits "then the situation expands
sufficiently to become one of using extensive amounts of the very resources one is attempting
to control (in the U.S. case, oil and money) for the sake of controlling the resources over
which one needs to exert control! This circular logic cannot be maintained when it meets
a
scarcity of resources; and
the natural-institutional-logical antinomy of using resources in
massive amounts to control the resources you are using for control. In other words, the empire
based on this pattern must end when it runs headlong into resource scarcity, and/or
natural-logical contradictions involving its own internal (economic and resource) limitations.
This argument against U.S. Empire is not based on ethical or legal grounds (although those
remain the best arguments in favor of voluntarily ending empire and regaining our citizenship
[civil rights] and humanness) "since those arguments have been put asunder by the
U.S. administrators of empire. Rather, the institutional-logical analysis argues that an empire
such as the U.S. has constructed exhausts itself by being unable to expand fast enough to
control everything it seeks in order to continue its dominance.
When the issue of blowback is
added "i.e. that other nations and peoples are unlikely to cooperate willingly in
having their resources, humanity, and very lives removed from them "the end result,
Empire's fall, could be hastened, and is certainly assured. We can now
predict not only how it will happen, but also its imminent coming. Here's
how.
First, the heaviest resource consumers of fossil fuels, in order, are the U.S. military,
U.S. citizens, China, and India. The Department of Defense per capita energy consumption is 10
times more than per capita energy consumption in China, or 30 times more than that of Africa.
Oil accounts for more than three-fourths of DoD’s total energy consumption. The Post
Carbon Institute estimates that abroad alone, the U.S. military consumes about 150,000 barrels
per day. In 2006, for example, the Air Force consumed 2.6 billion gallons of jet-fuel, which is
the same amount of fuel U.S. airplanes consumed during all of WWII (between December 1941 and
August 1945) (from The Resilience Group of the Post Carbon Institute, www.resilience.org ).
Second, concerning the global dimension of resource control, one needs only to understand
the preferred method that U.S. Empire acolytes use to justify their actions abroad: the
state of emergency that was declared after 9/11 has continued
unabated since then, due to the ongoing threat of
terrorism (see Jeremy Scahill, Dirty Wars: The World is a
Battlefield , for the latest detailed instances of this process.). The domestic equivalent
to his war has been well underway since 9-11. (For detail on
the domestic front, see also Trevor Aaronson, Terror Factory , regarding FBI domestic
use of the ongoing threat of terrorism to deny basic civil
rights to citizens).
This allows U.S. government administrators to maintain a state of
exception to the rule of law. Georgio Agamben, in his book States of
Exception , defines this phrase as extraordinary governmental actions resulting from
distinctively political crises. As such, the actions of such administrators are in-between
normal political operations and legal ones. This no
man's land of government policy is not only difficult to
define, but brings in its wake a suspension of the entire existing
juridical order. Thus, states of exception are those in which a government in fact
suspends the rule of law for itself, while attempting to maintain some semblance of legal
order, for the purpose of consolidating its power and control (see Georgio Agamben, States
of Exception , Chapter Two).
Regarding the scarcity of resources issue, none other than the World Bank produced a
detailed study of demand and supply projections for the immediate future. The study projects
that, on the basis of current consumption and immediately precedent rises in it, the demand for
food will rise by 50% by 2030, for meat by 85%, for oil by 20 million barrels a day, and for
water by 32%, all by the same year.
This is met by alarming statistics and predictions from the
supply side. In their report, they state that global food growth rates fell by 1.1% over
the past decade, and are continuing to fall, while global food consumption outstripped
production in seven of the eight years between 2000 and 2008. Further, the Food and
Agricultural Organization and the UN Environment Program estimate that 16% of the arable
land used now is degraded. Intensifying competition between different land uses is
likely to emerge in future, including food crops, livestock, etc., and the
world's expanding cities. Current rates of water extraction from
rivers, groundwater and other sources are already unsustainable in many parts of the world.
Over one billion people live in water basins in which the physical scarcity of water is
absolute; by 2025, the figure is projected to rise two billion, with up to two thirds of the
world's population living in water-stressed conditions (mainly in non-OECD
countries).
On oil , the International Energy Agency has warned consistently that there
is a significant risk of a new supply crunch as the global
economy recovers. Additionally, the IEA's
chief economist argues that peak production could take place by 2020 (from the
World Development Report 2011, Background Paper: Resource Scarcity, Climate
Change and the Risk of Violent Conflict, www.worldbank.org ).
The conclusion from all of these points is nearly obvious: if resources are even relatively
scarce, and the habits of and desires for consumption continue to rise among nations, and
especially among the citizens of Empire (as has been documented in part above), and if control
over those resources is the goal of Empire, but if the Empire consumes more resources than it
can logistically or economically control due to natural limitations of those resources
themselves, and/or to the consumption of more resources than is either available to it or that
it needs to survive, then the power of the Empire will naturally-logically end in a sharp
decline, and soon (For applicable details on this, see Richard Heinberg,
The Brief, Tragic Reign of Consumerism "and the Birth of a
Happy Alternative, www.postcarbon.org ).
With all indicators predicting that the contradictions of Empire's
resource consumption, circle of desired resource control, scarcity of resources, and
contradiction in resource use and control, are all about to collide in a few years, not
decades, it is time to start planning for a post-Empire future. To that end, any psychologist
reading this analysis will recognize themes of realistic conflict
theory, which is a theory which explains how intergroup hostility can arise as a
result of conflicting goals and competition over limited resources
The key point in bringing
this psychological theory into the discussion is that in this theory, it is concluded that
friction between groups can be reduced only in the presence of superordinate goals that promote
united, cooperative action (see Wikipedia on Realistic Conflict
Theory for a good overview, summarized here. https://en.wikipedia.org ). Note the agreement of the ethical,
legal, and psychological analyses of Empire's oppression: the most effective
resolution to oppression, (empire) dominance, and conflict is united, cooperative action, not
the attempt to control or destroy people and nations who stand in the way of our control.
We have seen that progressives have had available to them a standard two-pronged argument
against empire "American or any other". Progressives have for good reason appealed
consistently to the ethical and the legal arguments available to help stem the desires for
world and resource domination.
This essays suggests that these two solid arguments should now
be combined with an institutional-logical analysis to demonstrate not only the intrinsic,
natural limits to empire, but to show reasons how and why empire must and will ultimately
disintegrate due to the hubris of ignoring natural limitations of unbridled consumption coupled
with attempts at singular control over others' resources and peoples.
"... I know it's an analogy I have used before – as Lucy in the Peanuts ..."
"... Washington is the big brother Poroshenko turns to when he wants help to stymie Russia's efforts to build circumferential commercial links around Ukraine, and instead for Ukraine to have an important linking role in Russia's energy business with Europe – in short, for Russia to continue using Ukraine to transit its gas to Europe. ..."
"... In Ukraine's current condition, it is at serious risk of collapse. And a country that sends its gas across Ukraine is a country that cannot afford to let Ukraine turn into a failed state, at any cost. Just to put a cherry on top of this splendiferous vision, complications actually can be introduced, at a whim, into Europe's energy supply, should they get uppity. ..."
"... This is no time for Russia to weaken in its resolve. But it is also no time for Germany to allow itself to be rolled. Somebody is going to be a major gas hub for Europe, and in the current climate it is going to be Germany or Ukraine. Germany should ask itself what Ukraine has done for it which would merit such sacrifice. ..."
First, I ran across
an hilarious post on Interfax Ukraine, which I was just going to offer for everyone's amusement.
It featured the 17-year-old CEO of Naftogaz, Andriy (it's very important to Ukrainians that they
spell their names differently from the Russian spelling, because they are not ignorant Slavs like
the Russians, but the descendants of billion-year-old-carbon extraterrestrials) Kobolev, blubbering
about how Siemens had caved in to pressure from the Russians, and stopped the sale of compressors
to Naftogaz that it needed to modernize its Gas Transit System (GTS). He's not really 17, of course;
he just has that
Richie Cunningham kind of face that makes him look perennially pubescent, complete with red hair.
That's part of what makes the article funny. There's more, but we'll get to that, in a bit.
Then it occurred to me that I've seen a loose series of pieces lately which mention Ukraine and
gas transit, such as Ken Rapoza's
piece for Forbes (which I mentioned already, in the comments to the previous post), where he
unaccountably suggests that Russia has discovered it still needs Ukraine. As I argued on that occasion,
Ukraine's soulful big-eyed caricature of trustworthiness is unlikely to fool anyone in Russia, and
merely underscores how important it is for Russia's continuing progress and uncoupling from the west
that it circumvent Ukraine, and not rely on it for anything.
But then I ran across
this . The EU is again taking the position, or at least it appears so from the gobbling of the
human turkey Maros Sefcovic, that transit of Russian gas through Ukraine after 2020 is a priority.
And I thought, holy shit. Are we really going to go through all this all over again? And
then I thought, what's a word for people who are incapable of learning? It's plain that western bureaucrats
see themselves – and I know it's an analogy I have used before – as
Lucy in the
Peanuts comic strips , holding the football for Charlie Brown (Russia), only to snatch
it away at the last second so that Charlie Brown/Russia falls ignominiously on his ass, to great
amusement. What's a word for people who are so stupid that they believe everyone else is too stupid
to see through their self-interested mendacity?
So I searched "What do you call people who are incapable of learning?"
This site – somewhat unkindly – suggested "thick". Fair enough, I thought.
... ... ...
But that wasn't the part that made me laugh. No, what I found funny was Kobolev's
pouty insistence that Nord Stream II be opposed as a 'politically-motivated project'. Just as if
leaning on the jellyfish President of the European Commission to force Russia to continue transiting
Europe's gas through the slow-motion collapse that is Ukraine had nothing whatsoever to do with politics.
Nope, that just stands out as a solid business decision in every way, doesn't it?
Let's get something up-front and on deck right now, so that there is no ambiguity to confuse the
issue. Washington was behind the Maidan turning into a violent insurrection, and the USA remains
behind the scenes
pulling the strings at the SBU . A
very frank phone conversation
between State Department neoconservative cookie-distributor Victoria Nuland and United States Ambassador
to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt, in which the eventual composition of the coup government was planned in
unambiguous detail should be all the evidence anyone needs that the entire process was manipulated
and micromanaged. Lest anyone forget, Nuland's choice, 'Yats' – Arseniy Yatsenyuk – was
such a political dung-magnet that he lasted only 26 months in the job. To be fair to him, he
was tasked with implementing the IMF's favourite reform (because it's the only one the IMF really
knows); austerity, in the poorest country in Europe. And it is the United States of America which
continues to have its arm up the back of Kiev's shirt, making its mouth move. Washington is the big
brother Poroshenko turns to when he wants help to stymie Russia's efforts to build circumferential
commercial links around Ukraine, and instead for Ukraine to have an important linking role in Russia's
energy business with Europe – in short, for Russia to continue using Ukraine to transit its gas to
Europe.
Why is that, do you suppose? What's in it for Washington?
Dragging Ukraine into the west's orbit has long been a goal for Washington, dating back to the
late and mostly-unlamented Zbigniew Brzezinski's 'grand chessboard' strategy – a geostrategic imperative,
he said, to ensure American primacy in the world. Russia without Ukraine, quoth the pushing-up-daisies
Pole, would never attain great-power status. And America has sort of gotten to like the feeling of
being the only great power in the world.
The strategic value of Ukraine, then, is manifold. It can be stirred at any time to whip up global
ire against Russia. NATO military exercises in Ukraine can be used to parade western might across
Russia's doorstep. But its real value lies in continued gas transit by Russia between the source
and Russia.
For one thing, it's the money – more than $ 2 Billion a year out of Russia's pocket and into Ukraine's,
in transit fees. Once Russia is committed to continuing to use Ukraine as a transit country, transit
fees can always be used as leverage to negotiate sweet energy deals for Ukraine, against the threat
of interrupting Europe's gas supply. Europe would play its part by acting hysterically terrified
and victimized. But that's still pretty small potatoes.
In Ukraine's current condition, it is at serious risk of collapse. And a country that sends its
gas across Ukraine is a country that cannot afford to let Ukraine turn into a failed state, at any
cost. Just to put a cherry on top of this splendiferous vision, complications actually can be introduced,
at a whim, into Europe's energy supply, should they get uppity.
There is no room in this sugarplum daydream for an independent Germany which is a gas hub for
Europe, perhaps not even with Mutti Merkel at the helm.
Perhaps some sort of medal could be struck for Sefcovic, for his relentless determination to herd
Russia into a horrible bargain which would see it constantly bargaining and negotiating with greedy
and lawless Ukraine for the expensive privilege of transiting its gas through Ukraine's whistling,
creaking pipelines. In other circumstances, such dedication might be admirable. But I'm pretty confident
that nobody in Russia is buying it. Europe has made an increasingly half-hearted attempt to stop
Nord Stream II, and has learned instead that if it wanted to make a sensible legal argument, it should
never have allowed the first pipeline; that's what, in the legal business, is known as 'precedent'.
All of which leads us to suspect that the real remaining antagonist to the Nord Stream II pipeline
is somebody whom it should not by rights concern at all, since that entity is neither part of the
supply chain nor the end user of the product – Uncle Sam.
This is no time for Russia to weaken in its resolve. But it is also no time for Germany to allow
itself to be rolled. Somebody is going to be a major gas hub for Europe, and in the current climate
it is going to be Germany or Ukraine. Germany should ask itself what Ukraine has done for it which
would merit such sacrifice.
"... The critics allege that Nord Stream 2 is a political project. So what? When the Obama Administration authorised liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the United States, did it have politics in mind? Sure. When the Lithuanians turned to LNG to lessen their reliance on Russia, were they pursuing a political project? Well, the importing vessel is called "Independence." Saying that Nord Stream 2 is a political project does not get you very far ..."
"... I can't believe it has taken this long for Euractiv to post a normal article on NordStream II. Sure, it is not the Russophobic shitrag that EUObserver carrying bs opinions from self-acclaimed 'apolitical' energy expert Srijben de Jong, but absence of common sense articles on the issue are few and far between. I'll give this a '1 Hurrah!'. Let see if if it spreads. ..."
Nord Stream 2 continues to divide Europe. That's a pity. For all the noise, Nord Stream 2 is
just a distraction – it doesn't really matter. Here's why, writes Nikos Tsafos.
Nikos Tsafos is president of enalytica, an energy consulting firm, and an adjunct lecturer
at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
The critics allege that Nord Stream 2 is a political project. So what? When the Obama Administration
authorised liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the United States, did it have politics in
mind? Sure. When the Lithuanians turned to LNG to lessen their reliance on Russia, were they pursuing
a political project? Well, the importing vessel is called "Independence." Saying that Nord Stream
2 is a political project does not get you very far
####
I can't believe it has taken this long for Euractiv to post a normal article on NordStream
II. Sure, it is not the Russophobic shitrag that EUObserver carrying bs opinions from self-acclaimed
'apolitical' energy expert Srijben de Jong, but absence of common sense articles on the issue
are few and far between. I'll give this a '1 Hurrah!'. Let see if if it spreads.
The specially-built ship completed the crossing in just six-and-a-half days setting a
new record, according to tanker's Russian owners.
The 300-metre-long Sovcomflot ship, the Christophe de Margerie, was carrying gas from
Norway to South Korea .
The Christophe de Margerie is the world's first and, at present, only ice-breaking LNG
carrier.
The ship, which features a lightweight steel reinforced hull, is the largest commercial
ship to receive Arc7 certification, which means it is capable of travelling through ice up to
2.1m thick. ..
####
Another misleading headline, which is a pity because I wanted to say that the downside
would be that it makes for shit Gin & Tonics if there is no ice!
Just as a reminder of FAKE news by the previous President that was met with raptured
adulation by the professional media:
You are absolutely correct about her not being "pro-Russian", albeit she is an "ethnic"
Russian: she is pro-Yulia Tymoshenko, nothing else..
Tymoshenko started off as a businesswoman in Dnepropetrovsk (now Dnipro), her home town,
and with the help of the former governor of her home province, the unbelievably corrupt
former Ukrainian prime minister, "Mr. 50%" Lazarenko, became immensely wealthy in an
amazingly short time, not least because, for an appropriate fee, Prime Minister Lazarenko
gave her control of the Ukrainian gas industry.
Tymoshenko was a brunette when she started of her business career and at that time only
spoke Russian, which is both her mother tongue and the first (and probably only) language of
her Russian mother. Her first foray into business was running a video-hire firm in
Dnepropetrovsk, where she flogged off bootleg soft-porn imported from Poland.
The "Gas Princess" then saw that there was much more wealth to be further garnered by her
entering what is laughably called in the Ukraine "politics". She changed her image to one of,
I suspect, a latter-day Lesya Ukrainka, and the rest is history.
She also seriously studied the Ukrainian language, which on her own admission, she did not
speak until she was in her 30s: she speaks nothing else now, in public at any rate.
The "Orange Revolution" for dear Yulia was just another opportunity for her to make even
more lolly.
Ukrainians remember that in the 1990s, before the braids, Tymoshenko was a shrewd
businesswoman with dark hair and a dark side: tough, unrelenting, unforgiving, and in a
league with then-Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko. She amassed an enormous fortune in the
natural gas business. People started calling her "The Gas Princess." And there she was helped
by the sweetheart deals Lazarenko allegedly sent her way.
Given all the talk that later charges against Tymoshenko were trumped up or falsified
in the Ukraine, it's probably important to know that her ally Lazarenko was prosecuted in the
United States, where he was convicted and imprisoned for money laundering and other crimes.
Tymoshenko was not charged in that case and she has denied wrongdoing, but she was named
explicitly as part of the conspiracy detailed in the indictment.
"Lazarenko received money from companies owned or controlled by Ukrianian [sic]
business woman Yulia Tymoshenko in exchange for which Lazarenko exercised his official
authority in favor of Tymoshenko's companies, and Lazarenko failed to disclose to the people
and government of Ukraine that he was receiving significant amounts of money from these
companies."
Tymoshenko moved from business to politics when she entered parliament in 1996. Three
years later, when Lazarenko fled the country (claiming people were out to kill him),
Tymoshenko helped found the Fatherland Party on an anti-Lazarenko anti-corruption
platform.
That prosecution is important, because the USA knows full well many of the details of
Tymoshenko's business relationship with Lazarenko. Consequently, it could probably make or
break her – exactly the position Uncle Same likes to be in with his relentless spying
and snooping on everyone and everything.
The same Naftogaz which plans to
tack on an extra $5 Billion
to its demands from Gazprom – already $12.3 Billion
– for what it says was underpayment of transit fees between 2009 and 2016. The same
Naftogaz that squeals what a reliable partner it is whenever there is mention of building a
pipeline around Ukraine so Russia will not have to transit gas through it.
Certainly doing a lot to help themselves, aren't they?
Lithuania helps America conquer Europe
Lithuania has accepted the first batch of liquefied natural gas from the USA
.... ... ...
The first consignment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States has arrived
at the port of Klaipeda. The Lithuanian authorities hope that the country will become a
regional distribution centre (hub) for US gas. They also believe that supplies of overseas
raw materials will help reduce gas prices in neighbouring countries and Lithuania
itself.
Analysts do not consider Lithuania's gas policy rational and effective, noting that
Russian pipeline gas is now much cheaper than LNG.
There is nothing you can do to stop an ideologue who turns up his/her nose at cheaper local
supply of a particular commodity because he/she dislikes the supplier, and elects to purchase
more expensive goods from an alternate source. The fact is, Lithuania could become a hub for
US LNG, and bring down gas prices for its customers so that they were eager to purchase it.
Lithuania could accomplish this through the simple expedient of buying American gas at a high
price – compared with Russian pipeline gas – and selling it at a lower price than
Russia was willing to do. Of course, somebody would have to absorb the cost of the price
difference, and that would be Lithuania. If Lithuania is willing to do that, as I said, she
cannot be stopped from doing it by anything short of the poverty which will eventually
result.
Knock yourself out, Grybauskaitė. If you were ordered to describe her policies in one
word, 'irrational' would probably do quite well. Americans will be comforted to know there is
more than one irrational president in the world.
Sanctions, but US still buying billions of dollars worth (including baksheesh) of rocket
engines and screwing around with international space station boondoggle (million dollar
toilet seats, hammers and widgets). And more baksheesh.
Try to google search a fixed price on one Russian rocket engine.
The pipeline hypotheses do not stand up to the realities of how energy is transported through
the Middle East in the 21st century
3. No Qatari offer to Damascus
The pipeline narrative, from 2013 onwards, also makes much mention of Damascus rebuffing
an alleged Qatari offer in 2009 to build a pipeline. This part of the story hinges around
statements by unnamed diplomats in a 2013 Agence France-Presse article about a meeting
between Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia's Bandar bin Sultan.
Qatar's then-Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani (R) and First Lady Sheikha Mozah
bint Nasser al-Misned (L) welcome Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma at
Doha airport in January 2010 (AFP)
The report says: "In 2009, Assad refused to sign an agreement with Qatar for an overland
pipeline running from the Gulf to Europe via Syria to protect the interests of its Russian
ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas."
But Dargin says:
"There are no credible sources that show that Qatar even approached
Syria in 2009 and was rebuffed in the process. I am not saying it definitely did not occur,
rather there is no evidence supporting this claim."
Syrian experts also support Dargin's rebuttal, highlighting the burgeoning economic and
political ties between Doha and Damascus.
'An important aspect that we don't talk about is the Syrian government never said the
Qataris were fighting for a pipeline'
- Jihad Yazigi, Syria Report
Yassin-Kassab says: "The absurdity is that relations between the Assad regime and the
Qataris were excellent until summer 2011. Assad and his wife and the Qatari royal couple
were also being portrayed as personal friends."
Although Assad may have repeatedly criticized Qatar since late 2011 onwards for
supporting "terrorists," he has never publicly stated that Qatari support for the rebels
was over a future pipeline.
Jihad Yazigi, editor of economy website Syria Report, says: "An important aspect that we
don't talk about is the Syrian government never said the Qataris were fighting for a
pipeline; that is telling in itself, that Assad never mentioned it."
4. The Moscow-Tehran connection
Then there's the other part of the Pipelineistan puzzle – the Iran-Syria pipeline,
also known as the Islamic Pipeline.
Yazigi explains: "The Islamic pipeline has been talked about for years. There were
pre-contract memorandums of understanding, but
until July 2011, there was no formal
signing [between Syria and Iran]. You can't argue this is a serious reason to destroy the
whole country.
"
While the project was politically expedient, it ignored economic and energy realities.
First, the project was estimated to cost $10 billion, but it was unclear who would foot the
bill, particularly as Tehran was – and still is – under US and international
sanctions, as is Syria, since 2011.
Second,
Iran lacks the capabilities to export significant amounts of gas.
Sanctions mean it cannot access the advanced US technology that would allow it to exploit
gas from the South Pars field that borders Qatar.
@71 James, there are many small contractors involved in Nordstream in several countries. The
sanctions are designed to squeeze them out and make Nordstream impossible.
It's not unlike the strategy being used against NK. They are designed to make life even
more difficult for ordinary people....perhaps drive them into China and cause China to attack
NK.
"Not me! Term limits mean nothing more than the elimination of the ability of the voters
to assess candidates based on legislative track records. The result is that every two years
the voters will have to choose representatives with no past history of legislation.
Disaster."
Gag me with a spoon. This argument is so old and so worn thin. Statistically 95+% of these
fools are reelected because the highly cerebral voters you refer to have elevators that
almost never go to the top of the building.
Money, money money. That's what drives the engine of elections. Incumbents have it working
for them in so many ways: PACs, corporate centers of influence; radio and teevee.
All of the alternatives you propose are red herrings. They are only workable in heaven,
not here on Terra Firma.
Remember, all of that institutional memory brought about by all of the 'experienced'
members of congress got us where we are today. And, it's gotten them a 10% approval
rating.
Something to consider when dealing with the Revolutionary time period is what part of the
populous is considered "The People," as in "We The People"? And just how equal in reality
were those people in 1776 when the phrase "All men are created equal" appeared?
This is of great importance when we look at the proportion of the populous that was
allowed to have a stake in the process and compare that with the amount of time it took until
a majority was finally deemed to have equal rights under the law--1920 within USA
Although it can be argued that full equality under the law is still lacking as Glenn
Greenwald did to great affect in
With Liberty and Justice for Some: How the Law Is Used to
Destroy Equality
. Two works providing info on this issue are
The Right to Vote: The
Contested History of Democracy in the United States
and
People of Paradox: An Inquiry
Concerning the Origins of American Civilization
, although there are many others.
Is the United States federal government reformable? IMO, as currently constituted, no. A
new document and associated institutions needs to be written and built, although some current
institutions will have a place within the new construct.
Yes, I did write a Constitution 3.0 using Madisonian principles not long after the fiasco
of the 2000 election to use as a classroom discussion tool. But to have any chance at making
that reality, the Rule of Law must be reinstated within the Outlaw US Empire in order to
bring the Deep State to Justice and thus its destruction.
One jewish journalist (link was posted here few days ago) nicely pointed out these sanctions
are the stupidest thing US could have possibly done. Not only it forges even closer
Russia-China-Iran alliance, it also alienates the closest and strongest ally US have - the
EU.
@18 - or the opposite. If Trump really is isolationists and if he wants USA isolate itself
on the two Americas, then he has two options: make America turn its back on the world, or
make the world turn its back on America. The first option he failed, DC regime is stronger
than POUTS. Then - the second option.
Not only it forges even closer Russia-China-Iran alliance, it also alienates the closest
and strongest ally US have - the EU.
Posted by: Arioch | Aug 7, 2017 1:30:51 PM | 96
What's wrong about that statement is that the EU nations are not US Allied states - they
are US vassal states. A bit of a difference between those two: "allied state" and "vassal state"
New U.S. sanctions will make it harder for Russia to build two gas export pipelines to Europe
but the projects are unlikely to be stopped.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reluctantly signed into law further sanctions on Russia but some
of the measures are discretionary and most White House watchers believe he will not take action against
Russia's energy infrastructure.
This would allow Gazprom's two big pipeline projects to go ahead, although at a higher price and
with some delays.
... ... ...
Gazprom warned investors last month that the sanctions "may result in delays, or otherwise impair
or prevent the completion of the projects by the group."
With all that in mind, the Russian gas giant is taking steps to reduce the impact of sanctions.
It has accelerated pipe-laying by Swiss contractor Allseas Group under the Black Sea for TurkStream
- even though there is no final agreement on where the pipeline will make landfall in Turkey. It
is also hurriedly building a second TurkStream line to export gas to Europe.
"The construction of the second line is underway just in case the sanctions hit," a senior Gazprom
source told Reuters.
A spokesman for Allseas said 100 km of the 900-km first line have been built since June 23 and preparatory
work is underway for the second line.
THE UKRAINIAN CONNECTION
The biggest cost of any delays to the new lines could come from increased transit fees paid to
Ukraine, the route by which Russian gas has traditionally reached Europe. Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream
bypass Ukraine, but if they are brought into use late, Gazprom will have to continue using the Ukrainian
route and may have to pay more for the privilege.
The European Union, fearing sanctions will hurt oil and gas projects on which it depends, said
it was ready to retaliate unless it obtained U.S. guarantees that European firms would not be targeted.
Five Western firms that have invested in Nord Stream 2 - Wintershall (BASFn.DE) and Uniper (UN01.DE)
of Germany, Austria's OMV (OMVV.VI), Anglo-Dutch Shell (RDSa.L), and France's Engie (ENGIE.PA) -
say it is too early to judge the impact of sanctions.
For now, they are standing by their pledge of up to 950 million euros ($1.13 billion) each to
finance the 1,225 km (760 mile) Nord Stream 2.
... ... ...
RISK PREMIUM
The sanctions law is however expected to hamper Gazprom's efforts to raise money. "The price of
any project automatically increases," said Tatiana Mitrova, director of the Skolkovo Energy Center.
"... The sanctions bill has been promoted as one that appropriately penalizes Russia for its international misbehavior. The always-cited examples being the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the (alleged) invasion of Ukraine in 2014. (As though these in any way rival in their impact and ramifications of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, based on lies, in 2003, or the U.S./NATO-led assault on Libya sold in the UN Security Council as a "humanitarian" intervention supported by Russia, that turned out to be a grotesque regime change operation culminating with Hillary Clinton's public orgasm following Muammar Gadaffi's sodomy-murder. "We came, we saw, he died!") ..."
"... Russia is always depicted in the corporate media as an "adversary." It acts, we are told ad nauseam, against U.S. "interests" around the world. Its involvement in Syria is (to support the survival of the secular modern Syrian state against the most savage opponents imaginable) is somehow objectionable (whereas U.S. bombing of Syria, condemned by Damascus as a violation of Syrian sovereignty and clearly in violation of international law, is treated as a matter of course). Its role in the bombing of Aleppo, resulting in the reconquest of the city from al-Nusra and its allies, was depicted by the U.S. media as a bad thing. Meanwhile U.S. bombing of Mosul, to retake that city from ISIL, is treated as heroic, however many thousands perish in "collateral damage." Anyway CNN won't cover it and has fewer reporters on the ground there than RT does. ..."
"... Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev matter-of-factly tweeted: "The Trump administration has shown its total weakness by handing over executive power to Congress in the most humiliating way." But where will this power lead? ..."
But U.S. policy now, under the Trump administration, is to promote U.S. energy exports to Europe
to replace Russian ones. It is both old-fashioned Cold War Russophobia and old-fashioned inter-capitalist,
inter-imperialist contention.
The sanctions bill has been promoted as one that appropriately penalizes Russia for its international
misbehavior. The always-cited examples being the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the (alleged) invasion
of Ukraine in 2014. (As though these in any way rival in their impact and ramifications of the U.S.
invasion of Iraq, based on lies, in 2003, or the U.S./NATO-led assault on Libya sold in the UN Security
Council as a "humanitarian" intervention supported by Russia, that turned out to be a grotesque regime
change operation culminating with Hillary Clinton's public orgasm following Muammar Gadaffi's sodomy-murder.
"We came, we saw, he died!")
Hillary Clinton on Gaddafi: We came, we saw, he died
Russia is always depicted in the corporate media as an "adversary." It acts, we are told ad nauseam,
against U.S. "interests" around the world. Its involvement in Syria is (to support the survival of
the secular modern Syrian state against the most savage opponents imaginable) is somehow objectionable
(whereas U.S. bombing of Syria, condemned by Damascus as a violation of Syrian sovereignty and clearly
in violation of international law, is treated as a matter of course). Its role in the bombing of
Aleppo, resulting in the reconquest of the city from al-Nusra and its allies, was depicted by the
U.S. media as a bad thing. Meanwhile U.S. bombing of Mosul, to retake that city from ISIL, is treated
as heroic, however many thousands perish in "collateral damage." Anyway CNN won't cover it and has
fewer reporters on the ground there than RT does.
Russia is depicted as "provocative" when it mobilizes military forces within its own territory
(and Belarus), in response to massive NATO exercises involving 31,000 troops in Poland last June
that the German foreign minister criticized as "warmongering."
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev matter-of-factly tweeted: "The Trump administration has
shown its total weakness by handing over executive power to Congress in the most humiliating way."
But where will this power lead?
The concept, as articulated by Sen. John McCain and Sen. John Hoeven in a 2014 Wall Street Journal
op-ed, is to "liberate our allies from Russia's stranglehold on the European natural-gas market."
But as the Washington Post has observed, "The problem is that Europeans don't necessarily want to
be liberated. Russian gas is much cheaper than American LNG, and could become even cheaper to undercut
the United States if it entered the European market. American LNG suppliers prioritize their own
profits over America's strategic advantage anyway, and are likely to want to target more lucrative
markets than Europe, such as Japan. Finally, the Russian gas supply is likely to be more reliable
than the United States', since it involves predictable long-term contracts, whereas U.S. production
capacity rises and falls, as it becomes cheaper and more expensive to extract American unconventional
hydrocarbons."
The McCain-Hoeven piece was of course written before there was any talk about Russian "election
meddling." But that issue was used to justify the sanctions bill. That, plus miscellaneous Russian
actions, basically in response to U.S. actions (as in Ukraine, where!as everyone should know!Hillary
Clinton's crony Victoria Newland helped organize a putsch in February 2014, designed to pull Ukraine
into NATO, although that effort has failed and anyway lacks German support).
The U.S. at this point (under Trump) is taking actions towards Russia that recall those of the
Truman administration. The warm, fuzzy (and miserable, abjectly weak) Russia of the 1990s under Yeltsin
is now a reviving world power within an emerging Eurasian trade system. The relationship between
Russia and China will stay strong even if the U.S. takes measures to sabotage trade relations between
Russia and Europe.
Meanwhile, the sanctions law has produced general European outrage. This is not the anti-Trump
outrage that accompanied his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. It is outrage at the U.S. legislature
for its arrogance in demanding Europe shoot itself in the foot, to show Washington deference. In
other words, the entirety of the divided, troubled U.S. polity is seen as a problem. This is as a
new Pew Research Center report showing that only 49% of the world's people now hold a positive view
of the U.S.
German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel and Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern have publicly condemned
the law, which could prevent them from benefiting from the planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline, declaring:
"we cannot agree with threats of illegal extraterritorial sanctions against European companies which
take part in the development of European energy supply." Brigitte Zypries, head of Germany's Ministry
for Economic Affairs and Energy, says the new sanctions are "against international law, plain and
simple Americans cannot punish German companies because they [do business] in another country." The
foreign ministers of Germany, France, Austria, Italy and Spain have protested. Jean-Claude Juncker,
president of the European Commission, said the bill could have "unintended unilateral effects" on
the EU's energy security, adding, "America first cannot mean that Europe's interests come last."
This is not just a provocation of Russia, but of the whole world. It's leveled by a bipartisan
effort, and general (although insane) consensus that Russia is trying to revive the Soviet empire,
is constantly interfering in foreign countries' elections, and represents an "existential" threat
to the U.S. and its freedoms, etc. (Because!reputable media talking heads opine routinely!Putin hates
freedom and wants to oppose it, by electoral interference in Germany, France, Italy, etc.)
U.S. politicians!many of whom who do not believe in global warming or evolution, and cannot find
Syria or Ukraine on the map!have boldly gone where no one has gone before: to risk a trade war with
traditional allies, to force them to more firmly embrace the principle of U.S. hegemony. This when
the U.S. GDP has dropped below that of the EU, and U.S. clout and credibility in the world!in large
part due to global revulsion at the results of U.S. regime-change wars!is at low ebb.
Medvedev predicts that "relations between Russia and the United States are going to be extremely
tense regardless of Congress' makeup and regardless of who is president. Lengthy arguments in international
bodies and courts are ahead, as well as rising international tensions and refusal to settle major
international issues." No bromance here.
Meanwhile Sen. Lindsey Graham!an extreme reactionary and warmonger now lionized my the mainstream
media as some sort of "moderate" and adult in the room!informs NBC's Today Show that reports that
"there is no military option" on North Korea are "just false."
"There is a military option: to destroy North Korea's nuclear program and North Korea itself.
He's not going to allow -- President Trump -- the ability of this madman [Kim Jong Un] to have a missile
that could hit America. If there's going to be a war to stop him, it will be over there. If thousands
die, they're going to die over there. They're not going to die over here -- and he's told me that
to my face."
"... Of course they are; and it's so bloody transparent that nobody is fooled. Please check the link below: http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/eu-ready-retaliate-if-us-imposes-new-russia-sanctions/ri20467 ..."
"... The U.S. is waging full scale war against Russia; economic sanctions are war and Japan attacked Pearl Harbour for almost identical sanctions on oil and energy imports. Vladimir Putin is the Cool Hand Luke of Russia; let hope the outcome is not like the movie. The E.U. seems to have had a recent spinal transplant; let's just see how it plays out ..."
"... The Western, eastern stuff is irrelevant. Russia isn't the aggressor in the situation. Putin will enjoy a population much more willing to stand against U.S. aggression which is largely dependent on an ignorant U.S. population. ..."
"... Merkel will be under pressure as these sanctions are simply a tax on EU citizens and corporations to support American corporate profits without providing better products. Given the EU political structure and the lack of a "cool" President, I suspect the next Congressional delegation will be shocked to find they aren't well received. ..."
"... I personally doubt that the Blob/US financial interests are 'jealous' of them -- they just think that Russia, like other countries, should kowtow to them, and allow them to buy whatever part of the Russian society and economy and land they like. ..."
"... I had thought of it the other way around: that the insistence on unprofitable fracking was to support America as a world power. Got to have some way to bribe Europe away from the Russians. Is there actually enough gas to do that? I know there's quite a bit. ..."
The U.S. is waging full scale war against Russia; economic sanctions are war and Japan
attacked Pearl Harbour for almost identical sanctions on oil and energy imports. Vladimir Putin
is the Cool Hand Luke of Russia; let hope the outcome is not like the movie. The E.U. seems to
have had a recent spinal transplant; let's just see how it plays out
I dare say, Russia is more self sufficient than the U.S. and almost every other country on
the planet. Do the research; it's very enlightening.
The U.S. is a very jealous hegemon and can't bear this reality
Have you ever thought to question your comparitive references? Most views of Russia are western-centric
in the extreme. Russia is not western or European in any sense of that reality; Russia is a very
different culture/s and sees things drastically different than the western-centric POV. Just sayin
The Western, eastern stuff is irrelevant. Russia isn't the aggressor in the situation.
Putin will enjoy a population much more willing to stand against U.S. aggression which is largely
dependent on an ignorant U.S. population.
Merkel will be under pressure as these sanctions are simply a tax on EU citizens and corporations
to support American corporate profits without providing better products. Given the EU political
structure and the lack of a "cool" President, I suspect the next Congressional delegation will
be shocked to find they aren't well received.
I'm confused. Who was it who brought up "Russia is more self-sufficient than the US
and almost every other country on the planet? That implies that you feel self-sufficiency (with
respect to certain metrics) is something that one should value. Let's say other people do not
share that meta value: does that then mean they are wrong?
I personally doubt that the Blob/US financial interests are 'jealous' of them -- they just
think that Russia, like other countries, should kowtow to them, and allow them to buy whatever
part of the Russian society and economy and land they like.
I had thought of it the other way around: that the insistence on unprofitable fracking
was to support America as a world power. Got to have some way to bribe Europe away from the Russians.
Is there actually enough gas to do that? I know there's quite a bit.
It's looking like quite the little diplomatic spat between the EU and Capitol Hill.
Here's the Russian envoy to the EU on talks to ban funding by EU banks for US business, if
the US law is declared invalid in the EU : http://tass.com/politics/957927
Note the bill bans not just business with Russians in Europe, but also Eurasia.
OBOR is clearly a target too.
So are the Chinese going to pipe up?
For this is nothing less than gloves – off imperialism .
Anyone know if it's possible the German's will act w/o the EU? In other words, unilaterally?
I'm asking because the article says EU may not be the "required" unanimous in responding to
the U.S. sanctions & LNG so there may not be an official EU retaliation (though it seems there
was much stronger opposition to the EU imposing Russian sanctions in 2014 in the first place but
supposedly that was a "unanimous" decision).
Will Germany be a total puppet to the U.S.? Or might it start to move towards Russia which
seems to be in Germany's business interest?
Germany wants to ensure stable gas supply for as long as possible. A pipeline thas goes through
the sea and does not depend on third countries that migth disconnect the pipeline (like Ukrania)
allows for a durable contract. So the US is not only intefering with russian interests but with
german ones. I don't think Germany considers US shale LNG supply a robust enough alternative competitive
in price and duration with russian gas. My guess is that in this case, Germany won't be a total
puppet.
Anti Schmoo put it very well "The E.U. seems to have had a recent spinal transplant"
EU has been following every global US initiative enthusiastically even though it only hurts
Europeans: wars and invasions, TTIP, TiSA, CETA etc.
On top of being emasculated and spineless with regards to national and continental interests
the current leaders of EU are neoliberals so they don't care about a new 'market solution' for
gas. Will subsidize the higher prices for companies while the citizens pay the price.
:) q.v. Frank Herbert's very old novel The Dragon in the Sea (aka Under Pressure
.) Being by Frank Herbert, it's about psychology, but it's also about petroleum pirating by submarine.
Yeah, I guess the price per barrel must have been pretty high.
The pipelines that go under the sea have lower capacities. They work to reduce the impact of
ukrainians et al blackmailing gas supplies. They do not eliminate the need to route gas overland.
He's an opportunitist and may advocate something one day and oppose it the next day.
He is absolutely not trustworthy. A total pushover.
And I wouldn't expect much from the rest of the german government, too.
The german media could pick it up and put pressure on politicians.
But due to the pathetic state the germain mainstream media are in (with exceptions),
I expect they'll just stop bringing up this issue and let people forget about it.
Maybe other european countries will be more resistant, maybe
Plus Japan -- a big LNG importer historically as it has no conventional energy sources of its
own -- is going to lessen its LNG demand as the
nuclear restart gathers pace. Whatever you might think of the safety aspects, Japan has 50+gW
of embedded nuclear generating capacity with a residual economic life of 20+ years on average.
It is simply inconceivable that this plant, much of which, unlike Fukushima which was end-of-life,
is mid-life and has decades of viable reactor runtimes available, will be mothballed and decommissioned
without generating another kW of power ever again.
The LNG glut will only continue and probably get noticeably worse once all, or at least the
vast majority, of Japanese reactors are brought back on line, which will be 5 years from now at
the outer limit. Cutting off Russian gas into Europe (and the rest of the world) will be a big
plus for the US. LNG liquefaction plant is a massive capital outlay, has big fixed costs
and is highly operationally geared, so even small reductions below peak output have a big hit
on plant profitability. It is those "wheels" the US plant operators will want to keep turning.
Conversely, the regasification plants (based in EU countries) don't need to operate flat out,
they're designed to have peaks and troughs as LNG consignments come in and get processed, then
sit around for a bit waiting for the next one. Which, again, is why the US is bothered about restricting
Russian supply, the EU not so much.
there is no surplus US LNG to be forced on Europe, it's a myth we are still importing more
natural gas from Canada than we are exporting to Mexico and liquifying for export moreover, our
own natural gas production has been falling year over year for 15 months straight i wrote about
exactly this situation two weeks ago:
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/great-us-natural-gas-exports-myth-6112
all the data is included. you can repost it if you want.
we are contracting to sell US natural gas at below the cost of US production, and it's gonna come
back and bite US natgas users big time when a shortage develops here..
IS natgas users would be anyone who uses American electricity, right? Another 'regressive'
tax on the way. Really, this is not New Cold War oriented, but Class War materiel.
Time for work.
there's been a gradual shift back to coal for generating over the past half year or so whether
that's because of price or because the utilities see what's coming i couldn't tell you..
maybe i'm projecting too much, but i see us heading down the same path that Australia took
How energy-rich Australia exported its way into an energy crisis - Australia exported 62%
of its gas production last year, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Yet its
policy makers didn't ensure enough gas would remain at home. As exports increased from new LNG
facilities in eastern Australia, some state governments let aging coal plants close and accelerated
a push toward renewable energy for environmental concerns. That left the regions more reliant
on gas for power, especially when intermittent sources such as wind and solar weren't sufficient.
Shortages drove domestic gas prices earlier this year in some markets in eastern
Australia
to as high as $17 per million British thermal units for smaller gas users such as manufacturers.
On the spot market, gas prices have gone from below $1 in 2014 to roughly $7 today .. In
March, Australia's largest aluminum smelter cut production and laid off workers because it said
it couldn't secure enough cheap energy.
the problem is that we are are contracting to export natural gas at today's low prices, which
wont pay for tomorrow's production..
The U.S. much like Team Blue hid behind our "cool" President and 9/11 for so long, no one knows
how to act. This is a trade war where we picked a fight with our most loyal vassals on behalf
of one industry which needs to be replaced anyway. Do you remember Hollande? He joined with Obama
against "OMG Russia." Macron's honey moon is over.
Due to resignations early in the Trump administration, and refusal of the Senate to approve
new FERC nominees, the FERC, whose approval is needed for building interstate energy transport
infrastructure, now lacks a quorum (having only 1 of the minimum 3 members out of 5 total). A
number of pipeline projects originating in marcellus were approved around end of 2016 prior to
the resignations, and are due to come on line in 2018, but many dozens more are now awaiting permitting -- both for domestic use and to transport to LNG export, as the piece above states.
The other interesting thing is that in the past, the explicit strategy of the US was to use
domestic natgas domestically, but no longer, it seems.
Pipelines would raise prices at the wellhead and lower prices elsewhere in the country. If
the lack of approval goes on for a few more years, it may have an impact on: the battle between
natgas and wind for the medium-term dominance of newly added utility scale electric generation
in the US, and the timing of how fast we can retire coal electric.
Lastly, besides Russia, Qatar is also a major natgas exporter to Europe, so they'll get their
gas either way, they'll just pay more. A points of reference there -- I belive Germany is currently
using coal as its main domestic baseload electric fuel – as prices were relatively high until
recently, they're using NG for home heating only. Now everyone needs to retire coal for obvious
reasons.
Jamming up FERC shouldn't be underestimated. They've got a huge amount of discretionary authority
to blast through state and local laws and regulations at will. It's amazing how the oil/gas industry
gets 1-stop shopping for all it's regulatory requirements.
It's sickening to see how much power the Petroleum companies have over Congress. Bribes work
well in our country. We need a wholesale re-haul of CON gress.
Regarding possible EU development of a spine, a recent George Webb video from just about 3
days ago said he's been told by some of his IC sources that Germany has been printing DMs on the
quiet. I take this with a pinch of salt but it's intriguing nonetheless. If true, Germany must
also be looking at the IT issue as well.
EU is still threatening to cancel Poland voting rights for 1 year, even after the President
vetoed the legislation regarding judiciary reform (which was to my understanding the main bone,
albeit the country is keen on going full Adolph). Maybe it has something to do with this?
thanks for this article, it's really a remarkable powerplay. the stakes are so high that it's
unfathomable that it doesn't backfire spectacularly. this looks like an exercise in hubris that
future historians will be long discussing.
more than forcing the EU to use american LNG, it is an attempt to force the EU to back american
efforts to replace assad in syria. remember, syria is what stands in the way between bahraini/saudi
gas and oil pipelines to europe.
the US is already at war against russia, they just haven't yet started shooting at each other.
but also, any chinese silk road to europe will have to use russian assets and infrastructure,
so this, potentially, affects them, too.
All stupidity with the Russia hysteria aside this may be all the faster at forcing a move to
renewables in the US. NG is the bounciest of all carbon based fuels WRT price. Once they start
pumping US NG into more foreign markets the price will climb, which will squeeze utilities that
have moved en mass into NG based generation and prove that renewables are even more cost effective.
Petty politics may end up having a silver lining 5 years down the road, and at this point I am
open to any route to renewables, even the sloppiest, unintentional ones.
Sure, but the ball is in another (higher) cup as the cost graphs go. I suspect it is going
to get increasingly difficult to transition back and forth with the lowering costs of renewables.
Also, coal is not getting any cheaper to extract and it definitely hasn't reduced its externalities.
We'll see, big utilities move in herds and it takes years to make a full transition. They may
flood back to coal, and build new plants (I doubt it), but they will eventually get burnt and
have to swing back again. In the absence of purposeful national level policy (what I prefer) this
is the only way the market based approach will turn away from fossil fuels.
"Instruments of political sanctions should not be connected with economic interests"?
This echoes the rationalizations of Wall Street when they crashed the economy in '08. Let's
not let politics interfere with the right to make money?
The sanctions against Russia were put in place in response to its annexation of Crimea and
its support of insurrection in Eastern Ukraine. They have been extended, and expanded, in response
to Russian meddling in the recent presidential election. To what extent their cyber warfare had
an effect is debatable, but Trump's stonewalling on the issue practically guaranteed the lopsided
vote on the latest sanctions.
The LNG issue has some valid points, but it ignores an issue which I have not seen addressed
on Naked Capitalism: Just how much is Trump- and those in his administration (infested with alumni
of the vampire squid)- beholden to Putin and his fellow oligarchs?
Trump appears to be the Pied Piper of Putin Patsies. I can't help but wonder why.
Crimea was not "annexed". The US destabilized Ukraine. The government in Kiev came in as a
result of a coup even thought elections were scheduled for a mere six weeks later and Yanukovich
would clearly have been voted out. The new government tore up the current constitution and went
through no legal process whatsoever to do that. That is not the behavior of a legitimate government.
Even though neo-Nazis are a very small percentage of the voters, they got 15% of government
positions. The head of the defense department gave a speech in which he encouraged ethnic cleansing
of Ukrainians of Russian origin, saying that any soldiers who removed them could keep their property.
Crimea petitioned to join Russia after a referendum that approved of that move by a large margin.
The US used precisely the same mechanism with Kosovo. Are you about to call that an annexation?
We have repeatedly discussed how the idea that Russia has influence over Trump is nonsense.
Did you suggest it at the time? The newsflow is a gusher right now. It's simply not possible
to give notice to everything. So do feel free to stifle your amazement.
Adding, it is a very good story (although I'm not a Russia hand). So readers may enjoy it even
at this late date which was, I take it, the real point of your comment.
Plus the assertion of Russian "meddling" in the 2016 election was never proven–it was only
asserted and repeated ad nauseum. Recent investigations have shown that in fact the DNC and Podesta
emails were insider leaks, they were not outsider hacks. The technical analysis showed evidence
that Russian "footprints" had been specifically inserted to cause Russia to be blamed.
In contrast the US has a well-established track record of meddling in other countries elections
and setting up regime change in various ways. Ukraine is one example, as Yves described. There
are many others, think of the US-sponsored coups in Latin America. They seem to be trying to pull
off another coup in Venezuela since their 2002 attempt didn't work out. And Obama didn't hesitate
to publicly endorse Macron just a couple days before the French election.
"the latest US sanctions against Russia, which passed the House today by a 419-3 margin ".
and
"Republicans and Democrats agreed almost unanimously, by 97 votes to 2 , to impose new sanctions
on Russia in the Senate on Wednesday"
I have been a member of many organizations, and do not recall seeing this kind of "unanimity"
when voting on significant and controversial resolutions. Clearly, a majority of US Americans
want peace, particularly with Russia (a Christian democracy). How and why did the People's Representatives/Senators
find the "courage" to vote against the People's wishes??? Hmmmmmmmm?
To put the vote into a context, 77 years ago; on
" ..July 14–15, 1940 – Rigged elections held in Latvia and the other Baltic states. Only one
pre-approved list of candidates was allowed for elections for the "People's Parliament". The ballots
held following instructions: "Only the list of the Latvian Working People's Bloc must be deposited
in the ballot box. The ballot must be deposited without any changes." The alleged voter activity
index was 97.6% . Most notably, the complete election results were published in Moscow 12 hours
before the election closed. Soviet electoral documents found later substantiated that the results
were completely fabricated. Tribunals were set up to punish "traitors to the people." those who
had fallen short of the "political duty" of voting Latvia into the USSR. Those who failed to have
their passports stamped for so voting were allowed to be shot in the back of the head.
July 21, 1940 – The fraudulently installed Saeima meets for the first time. It has only one
piece of business!a petition to join the Soviet Union. (The consideration of such an action was
denied throughout the election.) The petition carried unanimously. .."
Read Petrodollar Warfare and The Hidden Hand of American Hegemony for a start and a lot of
this will become more clear. The Iraq war, the U.S. instigated coup in Ukraine, U.S. backed attempt
at regime change in Syria and the demonization of Russia all concern oil supplies and who will
be allowed to supply what to whom, and more importantly in what currency such sales will be denominated.
All of this stuff is about trying to maintain the dollar's reserve currency status. Isn't this
becoming clear by now. Americans are still trying to understand why they invaded Iraq. Was it
WMDs, Al Qaeda, to bring freedom and democracy to the towel heads? Hussein decided in 2000 that
Iraqi oil sales would be denominated in Euros, three years later he was conveniently dead.
While I agree that the US has hegemonic aspirations, the petrodollar thesis is all wet.
Since the 1600s at least, countries have pursued mercantilist policies. That means first of
all that they like running trade surpluses. That allows them to have more jobs than their own
economies would support, keeping their citizens happy. They can also be net savers without having
a drag on the domestic economy.
But who will be the chump that exports jobs and has crappy growth to accommodate the mercantlists?
The US has signed up for that role, in large measure because the US cares more about the 1%, the
0.1%, and the interest of US multinationals than its citizens.
As long as everyone else wants to run trade surpluses and we are the only big player willing
to run sustained trade deficits, the dollar will remain the reserve currency. China has absolutely
zero interest in running trade deficits despite pining after the cachet of having the reserve
currency. The Eurozone maybe could have been a contender, but not with Germany being fiercely
mercantlist and Germany's insistence on not rebalancing within the Eurozone creating perceived
breakup risk.
@Yves
In order to answer your question to German language readers in the article.
There are several differences this time compared to previous instances of perhaps controversial
US-policy in Europe.
First of all the official positions of the German and Austrian government as well as the EU-Commission
are in harsh opposition to the bill while previously only opposition politicians or fringe business
interests voiced negative opinions.
Secondly the issue has been spread around in the relevant German business press a great deal,
yesterday alone about a dozen news agency reports were published, all with pretty much the same
tone and content. It has also been picked up by the op-ed pages in the papers today. This is in
stark contrast to previous instances like a leader from Die Linke blaming the refugee crisis on
US wars in 2015, Nato expansion to the east and troop build up in the Baltic or the planned upgrade
of US nuclear weapons stationed in Germany. All three topics are out of mainstream discussion
and anyone bringing up a negative opinion, like the mentioned politician from Die Linke, is ridiculed.
Thirdly while the EU needs the approval of all members to establish sanctions it could do a great
deal to prosecute a trade war via executive decisions by the EU-Commission alone. While there
has been no official indication how the threatened retaliation is going to look like several simple
measures come to mind. For instance the EU could suspend the EU-US privacy shield agreement thereby
increasing the cost of doing business in the EU for US companies by a significant amount, it would
also be likely that cartell/market dominance investigations might result in harsher fines for
US companies and more restricted mergers, something which has been brought up by EU officials
sometime ago is to require all foreign or only US banking and maybe other financial institutions
to be seperate concerns with full capitalisation and no dependencies on the US-holdings.
To summarise: it looks like a significant amount of the German "business community" is not
amused and views the bill as a direct attack on its interests and tries to use their influence
with the goverment against it. This raises the likelihood of something more than mere talk to
above 0%. In any case the image of the US has taken another hit, this time with a group of people
with mostly very positive opinions about close US-German relations.
thanks for this article, it's really a remarkable powerplay. the stakes are so high that it's
unfathomable that it doesn't backfire spectacularly. this looks like an exercise in hubris that
future historians will be long discussing.
more than forcing the EU to use american LNG, it is an attempt to force the EU to back american
efforts to replace assad in syria. remember, syria is what stands in the way between bahraini/saudi
gas and oil pipelines to europe.
the US is already at war against russia, they just haven't yet started shooting at each other.
but also, any chinese silk road to europe will have to use russian assets and infrastructure,
so this, potentially, affects them, too.
All stupidity with the Russia hysteria aside this may be all the faster at forcing a move to
renewables in the US. NG is the bounciest of all carbon based fuels WRT price. Once they start
pumping US NG into more foreign markets the price will climb, which will squeeze utilities that
have moved en mass into NG based generation and prove that renewables are even more cost effective.
Petty politics may end up having a silver lining 5 years down the road, and at this point I am
open to any route to renewables, even the sloppiest, unintentional ones.
Sure, but the ball is in another (higher) cup as the cost graphs go. I suspect it is going
to get increasingly difficult to transition back and forth with the lowering costs of renewables.
Also, coal is not getting any cheaper to extract and it definitely hasn't reduced its externalities.
We'll see, big utilities move in herds and it takes years to make a full transition. They may
flood back to coal, and build new plants (I doubt it), but they will eventually get burnt and
have to swing back again. In the absence of purposeful national level policy (what I prefer) this
is the only way the market based approach will turn away from fossil fuels.
"Instruments of political sanctions should not be connected with economic interests"?
This echoes the rationalizations of Wall Street when they crashed the economy in '08. Let's
not let politics interfere with the right to make money?
The sanctions against Russia were put in place in response to its annexation of Crimea and
its support of insurrection in Eastern Ukraine. They have been extended, and expanded, in response
to Russian meddling in the recent presidential election. To what extent their cyber warfare had
an effect is debatable, but Trump's stonewalling on the issue practically guaranteed the lopsided
vote on the latest sanctions.
The LNG issue has some valid points, but it ignores an issue which I have not seen addressed
on Naked Capitalism: Just how much is Trump- and those in his administration (infested with alumni
of the vampire squid)- beholden to Putin and his fellow oligarchs?
Trump appears to be the Pied Piper of Putin Patsies. I can't help but wonder why.
Crimea was not "annexed". The US destabilized Ukraine. The government in Kiev came in as a
result of a coup even thought elections were scheduled for a mere six weeks later and Yanukovich
would clearly have been voted out. The new government tore up the current constitution and went
through no legal process whatsoever to do that. That is not the behavior of a legitimate government.
Even though neo-Nazis are a very small percentage of the voters, they got 15% of government
positions. The head of the defense department gave a speech in which he encouraged ethnic cleansing
of Ukrainians of Russian origin, saying that any soldiers who removed them could keep their property.
Crimea petitioned to join Russia after a referendum that approved of that move by a large margin.
The US used precisely the same mechanism with Kosovo. Are you about to call that an annexation?
We have repeatedly discussed how the idea that Russia has influence over Trump is nonsense.
Do they know what they are doing? When the U.S. Congress adopts draconian sanctions aimed mainly
at disempowering President Trump and ruling out any move to improve relations with Russia, do they
realize that the measures amount to a declaration of economic war against their dear European "friends"?
Whether they know or not, they obviously don't care. U.S. politicians view the rest of the world
as America's hinterland, to be exploited, abused and ignored with impunity.
The Bill H.R. 3364 "Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act" was adopted on July
25 by all but three members of the House of Representatives. An earlier version was adopted by all
but two Senators. Final passage at veto-overturning proportions is a certainty.
This congressional temper tantrum flails in all directions. The main casualties are likely to
be America's dear beloved European allies, notably Germany and France. Who also sometimes happen
to be competitors, but such crass considerations don't matter in the sacred halls of the U.S. Congress,
totally devoted to upholding universal morality.
Economic "Soft Power" Hits Hard
Under U.S. sanctions, any EU nation doing business with Russia may find itself in deep trouble.
In particular, the latest bill targets companies involved in financing Nord Stream 2, a pipeline
designed to provide Germany with much needed natural gas from Russia.
By the way, just to help out, American companies will gladly sell their own fracked natural gas
to their German friends, at much higher prices.
That is only one way in which the bill would subject European banks and enterprises to crippling
restrictions, lawsuits and gigantic fines.
While the U.S. preaches "free competition", it constantly takes measures to prevent free competition
at the international level.
Following the July 2015 deal ensuring that Iran could not develop nuclear weapons, international
sanctions were lifted, but the United States retained its own previous ones. Since then, any foreign
bank or enterprise contemplating trade with Iran is apt to receive a letter from a New York group
calling itself "United Against Nuclear Iran" which warns that "there remain serious legal, political,
financial and reputational risks associated with doing business in Iran, particularly in sectors
of the Iranian economy such as oil and gas". The risks cited include billions of dollars of (U.S.)
fines, surveillance by "a myriad of regulatory agencies", personal danger, deficiency of insurance
coverage, cyber insecurity, loss of more lucrative business, harm to corporate reputation and a drop
in shareholder value.
The United States gets away with this gangster behavior because over the years it has developed
a vast, obscure legalistic maze, able to impose its will on the "free world" economy thanks to the
omnipresence of the dollar, unrivaled intelligence gathering and just plain intimidation.
European leaders reacted indignantly to the latest sanctions. The German foreign ministry said
it was "unacceptable for the United States to use possible sanctions as an instrument to serve the
interest of U.S. industry". The French foreign ministry denounced the "extraterritoriality" of the
U.S. legislation as unlawful, and announced that "To protect ourselves against the extraterritorial
effects of US legislation, we will have to work on adjusting our French and European laws".
In fact, bitter resentment of arrogant U.S. imposition of its own laws on others has been growing
in France, and was the object of a serious parliamentary report delivered to the French National
Assembly foreign affairs and finance committees last October 5, on the subject of "the extraterritoriality
of American legislation".
Extraterritoriality
The chairman of the commission of enquiry, long-time Paris representative Pierre Lellouche, summed
up the situation as follows:
"The facts are very simple. We are confronted with an extremely dense wall of American legislation
whose precise intention is to use the law to serve the purposes of the economic and political
imperium with the idea of gaining economic and strategic advantages. As always in the United States,
that imperium, that normative bulldozer operates in the name of the best intentions in the world
since the United States considers itself a 'benevolent power', that is a country that can only
do good."
Always in the name of "the fight against corruption" or "the fight against terrorism", the United
States righteously pursues anything legally called a "U.S. person", which under strange American
law can refer to any entity doing business in the land of the free, whether by having an American
subsidiary, or being listed on the New York stock exchange, or using a U.S.-based server, or even
by simply trading in dollars, which is something that no large international enterprise can avoid.
In 2014, France's leading bank, BNP-Paribas, agreed to pay a whopping fine of nearly nine billion
dollars, basically for having used dollar transfers in deals with countries under U.S. sanctions.
The transactions were perfectly legal under French law. But because they dealt in dollars, payments
transited by way of the United States, where diligent computer experts could find the needle in the
haystack. European banks are faced with the choice between prosecution, which entails all sorts of
restrictions and punishments before a verdict is reached, or else, counseled by expensive U.S. corporate
lawyers, and entering into the obscure "plea bargain" culture of the U.S. judicial system, unfamiliar
to Europeans. Just like the poor wretch accused of robbing a convenience store, the lawyers urge
the huge European enterprises to plea guilty in order to escape much worse consequences.
Alstom, a major multinational corporation whose railroad section produces France's high speed
trains, is a jewel of French industry. In 2014, under pressure from U.S. accusations of corruption
(probably bribes to officials in a few developing countries), Alstom sold off its electricity branch
to General Electric.
The underlying accusation is that such alleged "corruption" by foreign firms causes U.S. firms
to lose markets. That is possible, but there is no practical reciprocity here. A whole range of U.S.
intelligence agencies, able to spy on everyone's private communications, are engaged in commercial
espionage around the world. As an example, the Office of Foreign Assets Control, devoted to this
task, operates with 200 employees on an annual budget of over $30 million. The comparable office
in Paris employs five people.
This was the situation as of last October. The latest round of sanctions can only expose European
banks and enterprises to even more severe consequences, especially concerning investments in the
vital Nord Stream natural gas pipeline.
This bill is just the latest in a series of U.S. legislative measures tending to break down national
legal sovereignty and create a globalized jurisdiction in which anyone can sue anyone else for anything,
with ultimate investigative capacity and enforcement power held by the United States.
Wrecking the European Economy
Over a dozen European Banks (British, German, French, Dutch, Swiss) have run afoul of U.S. judicial
moralizing, compared to only one U.S. bank: JP Morgan Chase.
The U.S. targets the European core countries, while its overwhelming influence in the northern
rim – Poland, the Baltic States and Sweden – prevents the European Union from taking any measures
(necessarily unanimous) contrary to U.S. interests.
By far the biggest catch in Uncle Sam's financial fishing expedition is Deutsche Bank. As Pierre
Lellouche warned during the final hearing of the extraterritorial hearings last October, U.S. pursuits
against Deutsche Bank risk bringing down the whole European banking system. Although it had already
paid hundreds of millions of dollars to the State of New York, Deutsche Bank was faced with a "fine
of 14 billion dollars whereas it is worth only five and a half. In other words, if this is carried
out, we risk a domino effect, a major financial crisis in Europe."
In short, U.S. sanctions amount to a sword of Damocles threatening the economies of the country's
main trading partners. This could be a Pyrrhic victory, or more simply, the blow that kills the goose
that lays the golden eggs. But hurrah, America would be the winner in a field of ruins.
Former justice minister Elisabeth Guigou called the situation shocking, and noted that France
had told the U.S. Embassy that the situation is " insupportable " and insisted that "we
must be firm".
Jacques Myard said that "American law is being used to gain markets and eliminate competitors.
We should not be naïve and wake up to what is happening."
This enquiry marked a step ahead in French awareness and resistance to a new form of "taxation
without representation" exercised by the United States against its European satellites. They committee
members all agreed that something must be done.
That was last October. In June, France held parliamentary elections. The commission chairman,
Pierre Lellouche (Republican), the rapporteur Karine Berger (Socialist), Elisabeth Guigou (a leading
Socialist) and Jacques Myard (Republican) all lost their seats to inexperienced newcomers recruited
into President Emmanuel Macron's République en marche party. The newcomers are having a
hard time finding their way in parliamentary life and have no political memory, for instance of the
Rapport on Extraterritoriality.
As for Macron, as minister of economics, in 2014 he went against earlier government rulings by
approving the GE purchase of Alstom. He does not appear eager to do anything to anger the United
States.
However, there are some things that are so blatantly unfair that they cannot go on forever.
there are some things that are so blatantly unfair that they cannot go on forever.
LOL! Naïve, I think. As long as European countries (and the UK) are prepared to carry on acting
as Washington's bitches, Washington will go on treating them as such.
The political, media and business elites need to be thoroughly cleansed of US apologists. That
won't be easy, especially when Europe and the UK are in the grip of an ideologically anti-nationalist
culture that is essentially treasonous and utterly lacking in national self-respect.
Ending NATO and suppressing the US-backed anti-Russian propaganda that keeps Europe and the
UK subordinate would be the bare minimum first steps, along with cooperating with China and Russia
to promote and use financial systems independent of the dollar.
or even by simply trading in dollars, which is something that no large international enterprise
can avoid
The countries that are regularly targeted for US bullying are building structures that avoid
vulnerability. European countries and the UK need to join with them in doing so (though it's unlikely
they will be trusted very far given their track records of collaboration with Washington).
Also companies that decline to deal in the US market should be protected and supported, on
national security grounds. It should be straightforwardly illegal in all sovereign countries for
the US to try to impose its laws on any company merely for dealing in dollars, and the US should
be held directly responsible when its courts seek to do so. US extraterritoriality has always
been a gross intrusion into and threat to national sovereignty.
In 2014, France's leading bank, BNP-Paribas, agreed to pay a whopping fine of nearly nine
billion dollars, basically for having used dollar transfers in deals with countries under U.S.
sanctions.
Ideally this kind of extortion will be to some extent counterbalanced by retaliatory extractions
from US business assets such as Google and Facebook.
entering into the obscure "plea bargain" culture of the U.S. judicial system, unfamiliar
to Europeans. Just like the poor wretch accused of robbing a convenience store, the lawyers
urge the huge European enterprises to plea guilty in order to escape much worse consequences
The US plea bargain system is a disgrace to any kind of concept of justice and basically means
that no US confessions or guilty pleas can be regarded as meaningful, and nor should any sovereign
country agree to extradition of its own citizens to the US. It is basically a system of organised
blackmail, coerced confessions and corruption of witnesses.
Well, Europe could consider all of these payouts to the US as "reparations for Nazi atrocities".
This will make it go down easier, after all who wouldn't want to enslave himself to Yankees to
repair Nazi atrocities?
"... The near-unanimous vote in both houses of Congress (all "no" votes in the House were from Republicans) testifies to the degree to which the CIA, NSA and other spy agencies directly control the institutions of the state and the personnel that compose them."*** ..."
"... By far the new U.S. bill place the most distressing question mark on the pipeline to northern Europe known as Nord Stream II. Five of Europe's biggest energy companies are all signed on to partner Gazprom in pumping gas westwards. ..."
"... "The Europeans intensely dislike U.S. extraterritoriality, and this will widen the breach between the EU and U.S.," Sir Lyne says. "For the Russians, that is a silver lining." ..."
"... All the Europeans need do is tell Uncle Sam to go fuck himself with his sanctions That will pull the rug out from under the American psychos behind the rabid sanction lunacy ..."
"... American politicians are also under the bizarre delusion that they can replace Russia's piped gas with LNG exports. This delusion is something else. America imports natural gas! It would have to take a major consumption hit, thereby driving up prices since demand will remain, to supply the EU with 150+ billion cubic meters of gas per year that currently comes from Russia. The USA consumed about 780 bcm of gas in 2016. It does not have a spare 150 bcm to sell. ..."
"... As I alluded yesterday, the USA has staked out a position from which it cannot back away, one which is of surpassing stupidity, because it has accustomed itself to being obeyed and fancies itself such a clever manipulator that it will always get its way. It is critical now that Europe actually stand together and speak with one voice; otherwise, America will begin probing for lack of resolve and unlimbering its divide-and-conquer game. ..."
"... It will also be pretty funny if Russia struggled and pleaded and accepted all manner of small-minded insults just to get into the World Trade Organization, only to see it collapse only a few years later. Because I'm pretty sure what America is trying to pull off here is in gross violation of WTO rules as well. ..."
"The new sanctions expose the essential issues behind the "election hacking" campaign of
the US media and political establishment, spearheaded by the intelligence agencies that are
opposed to any shift away from the anti-Russia policy developed under the Obama
administration.
****
The near-unanimous vote in both houses of Congress (all "no" votes in the House were from
Republicans) testifies to the degree to which the CIA, NSA and other spy agencies directly
control the institutions of the state and the personnel that compose them."***
"One key question now is how Europe will react," Sir Lyne says. "Over Ukraine, the US and
EU marched in step. That is not the case now; and the new bill has the potential to make
Europe pay a much higher price than the US."
The EU has never been more dependent on Russian gas, according to Bloomberg, as Russia's
state-run gas monopoly Gazprom now pumps over a third (34 percent) of Russia's gas. At
present, Gazprom has put the kibosh on one pipeline to the EU, known as South Stream but
agreed one that will bring gas on the EU's borders, to Turkey.
By far the new U.S. bill place the most distressing question mark on the pipeline to
northern Europe known as Nord Stream II. Five of Europe's biggest energy companies are all
signed on to partner Gazprom in pumping gas westwards.
Anglo-Dutch group Royal Dutch Shell, Austria's OMV, France's Engie and Germany's Uniper
and Wintershall have agreed to work with Gazprom on the pipeline, collectively covering
around half of the nearly $11 billion cost.
The European Commission President Jean Claude-Juncker warned Wednesday that Brussels needs
to act "within days" if the U.S. does provide Europe with reassurance that the sanctions will
not jeopardize EU interests. A U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity told
European news site EUobserver, that the European companies would likely not be punished by
the U.S. as part of the sanctions but called the situation a "risk" regardless.
"The Europeans intensely dislike U.S. extraterritoriality, and this will widen the breach
between the EU and U.S.," Sir Lyne says. "For the Russians, that is a silver lining."
All the europeans need do is tell Uncle Sam to go fuck himself with his sanctions That
will pull the rug out from under the American psychos behind the rabid sanction lunacy
All the Europeans need do is tell Uncle Sam to go fuck himself with his sanctions That
will pull the rug out from under the American psychos behind the rabid sanction lunacy
Of course that is not going to happen, at least not publicly – there will be no
outward sign of European rebellion, because that would be 'playing into Putin's hands', and
the European elite still loathes Putin enough to not want to be seen doing that. At the same
time, Uncle Sam does not want to back down, and an arrangement – even secret –
that America would not apply the sanctions to European companies would completely nullify
their effect. European companies would simply ignore them and carry on with their plans. So
the possibility they might be invoked has to stay, with all the attendant fury that is likely
to cause. Juicy as a mango, I think. Official America has been a bully for so long that it's
the only problem-solving approach it remembers.
The question that keeps nagging at the corner of my mind, though, is "What if the USA were
successful at stopping the construction of Nord Stream II and Russia ceased transit through
Ukraine anyway?" After all, this whole effort is focused on forcing Russia to continue
transiting a big part of Europe's gas supplies through Ukraine, both to keep Ukraine viable
by forcing Russia to engage with it despite its objectionable ideological government, and to
keep Ukraine as a bargaining chip to make Russia appear to be an unreliable supplier.
Washington's assumption is that Russia will continue to transit gas through Ukraine if its
alternatives are removed – after all, it's just a big gas station, and it can't live
without its gas sales to Europe. But what if, once again, Washington guessed wrong? If I were
running Russia – let's pretend, because I'm not – I would orchestrate a series of
'rebel' sabotage attacks on Naftogaz's pipeline network, blowing up substantial parts of it,
and then use that as a reason to cease transit of gas through the line: it's just not safe. I
would then maximize transit through existing pipelines
except
Ukraine, perhaps
accelerating the completion of Turkish Stream, and publicly and loudly blame any shortfall on
American meddling – if Nord Stream had been twinned, you wouldn't have this problem. If
it were managed correctly and everything went according to plan, I think it would
resonate.
Also, Russia has reduced its dependence on energy exports. It might be worth it to allow a
scenario in which Washington got the opportunity to make up for Russian shortfalls, because
it would be a complete failure – the export capability is just not there, and if they
redoubled their efforts they would lose money like crazy because they could not do it for
Russia's prices. Either they would flop at the delivery end, or the Europeans would squeal
like pigs because their gas rates went out of sight, or Uncle Sam would take a bath on
American exports. Those are the only possible scenarios, it should be emphasized.
We have clear evidence that the politicians in the USA do not have a grip on Russia's economy
and exports dependence. By 2019 Russia will have a massive gas pipeline to China. Gas for
this pipeline has to come from somewhere and filling it up with Banderastan transit gas would
be a good start to put the USA and its EU colony in its place. According to the most recent
Awara Group report, the fraction of oil and gas industry in Russia is down to 8% of GDP. Not
only is Russia not dependent on oil and gas for its GDP, it will lose nothing by shifting
supply away from the EU.
American politicians are also under the bizarre delusion that they can replace Russia's
piped gas with LNG exports. This delusion is something else. America imports natural gas! It
would have to take a major consumption hit, thereby driving up prices since demand will
remain, to supply the EU with 150+ billion cubic meters of gas per year that currently comes
from Russia. The USA consumed about 780 bcm of gas in 2016. It does not have a spare 150 bcm
to sell.
"The European powers reacted sharply yesterday to the US House of Representatives' passage
of a bill imposing sanctions on Russia, Iran and North Korea, indicating that it was
unacceptable to European interests and that the European Union (EU) was preparing retaliatory
measures."
"Angry commentary over the sanctions bill in the German press underscore that influential
forces in the German ruling class see the sanctions bill as yet further evidence of hostile
US intent towards Germany and Europe.
"What is particularly dangerous is that supporters of Russia sanctions in Washington are not
only trying to put Putin and Trump in the same bag, but also helping the US economy against
foreign competition," wrote the Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Under the bill, the daily added,
"Europeans would be forced to burn less Russian natural gas and more American liquefied
natural gas. This is an unfriendly act, especially against Germany."
The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung wrote that, "with all due respect for the Senate and its
ambition to tie President Donald Trump's hands on Russia policy, the draft law is
unacceptable from a European perspective. First, it breaks the diplomatic alliance between
Europe and the United States in deciding on sanctions against Russia. The argument that
America is promoting Europe's energy security is also quite insolent. That is Europe's
responsibility. This is how you lose friends."
The question that is emerging is whether the US-EU military rivalry and bitter trade
conflicts will now coalesce and escalate into a catastrophic breakdown in US-EU relations!in
the form of a trade war that would bring the world economy to its knees, or of outright
military conflict."
Hmmm .So the RWETA is born.. Russia &Western EuropeTrade Allliance
Why make it more complicated than it is? The French are in the lead for once – such
sanctions are a violation of international law. Consequently no other nations are obligated
to abide by them. If America levied a massive fine against BASF Wintershall, and that company
simply ignored it, what would America do? Start booting out German companies in the USA? Melt
BMW's and pour them down the drains in the street?
As I alluded yesterday, the USA has staked out a position from which it cannot back away,
one which is of surpassing stupidity, because it has accustomed itself to being obeyed and
fancies itself such a clever manipulator that it will always get its way. It is critical now
that Europe actually stand together and speak with one voice; otherwise, America will begin
probing for lack of resolve and unlimbering its divide-and-conquer game.
The really funny part in this, from my viewpoint, is the way the Europeans blame Trump and
his presidency. Granted, he did frame the 'America first' policy, but that's just a
convenient handle for the angry Europeans to grab. Trump entered office with the declared
intention of mending the damaged relationship with Russia, and it was the Democrats who
created an hysterical firestorm of accusation that Russia had greased Trump's way into
office. It has been ideologues outside Trump's circle who crafted the sanctions legislation
with a view to preventing him from lifting the sanctions under his own recognizance.
It will also be pretty funny if Russia struggled and pleaded and accepted all manner of
small-minded insults just to get into the World Trade Organization, only to see it collapse
only a few years later. Because I'm pretty sure what America is trying to pull off here is in
gross violation of WTO rules as well.
State-owned gas monopoly ahead of schedule on politically important Siberian pipeline
The Power of Siberia gas pipeline, the first to connect Russia and China, will start pumping
in December 2019, Gazprom said on Tuesday, paving the way for a 30-year supply agreement of more
than 1.15tn cubic metres of gas for the Kremlin-controlled export monopoly
Mr Miller's affirmation is important. The project, which will cost Gazprom more than $55bn
just to build the necessary infrastructure to get the gas flowing, is one of the most critical
investments for Russia's energy sector, which has targeted a long-term strategic supply link with
China to match its market penetration in Europe. ..
Power of Siberia is expected to run significantly below capacity in its first few years
of operation, as China instead runs down its domestic gas reserves. The 30-year supply agreement
is set to kick in around 2025 .
####
The report's loaded with info. Production can certainly be increased, but it's all the
other infrastructure that's required for the market to expand, particularly regasification
terminals.
The Saudis tried to make a public IPO of Aramco a while back. This has fizzled, probably in
recognition of the fact that Saudi is almost running on empty. One reason behind the Qatar
lunacy might be a wish to take over Qatar's resources to keep Saudi solvent for a while at
least.
interview with Chas Freeman last week: Qatar Crisis Could Lead to War: Veteran US Diplomat
if you don't know who Chas is, please wiki was ambassador to Saudi, was Nixon's
interpreter in China, that's right, he speaks mandarin and arabic not just knowledgeable,
also very funny remember when AIPAC vetoed his appointment by Obama?
Yes, that's exactly how that Reuters story reads to me too. The prime target is the US.
Extraordinarily powerful move by Qatar, using a weapon that it knows and owns completely and
in massive scale, and with an understanding of the damage it can do to its enemies.
Asymmetrical warfare indeed. Priceless.
~~
I'm really hoping that over the years, as Qatar rubs shoulders with the multi-polar world,
it will reform itself to renounce and atone for its former support of terrorism. As I watch
its moves in this situation I'm struck with a certain admiration. It would be nice to be able
to root for it someday as one of the good guys.
Unless the Saudis can reconfigure their economy and train their populous to do actual
work, their kingdom will sink ..
karlof1 at 1
This is impossible.
Laguerre at 10. > see also response from karlof1 at 20.
The curse of black gold + a rentier economy coupled with an authoritarian repressive State
that enslaves the 'people.' The two are often soldered: dominating class capts the profits
and co-opts slave labor, and pays off citizens with 'stipends.' Escaping or changing such a
template is imho incredibly difficult or impossible in the case of KSA.
The rentier class, aka Royals and hangers-on is several tens of thousands of ppl, not
detailed on wiki. (Comp. with US not the 1%, but the 20%..) In fact it is one of the problems
of such arrangements, some gang of 'hangers on' has to be appeased and maintained, they have
quite some power. Because the 'authoritarian' schema deploys in a clear top-down, to down
further, a fixed ladder - way, and once some lower layer is stiffed, objections and
obstructions may fly and richochet to the top. For the system to endure, these HAVE to be
appeased.
A power sharing scheme like this also mandates that women are kept from acting in any way.
The easiest and cheapest way to control half the population, plus all children, ask the MB,
the Taliban, KSA.
The crazed moves of the new Prince are vain attempts to escape the self-constructed trap.
Floundering, flailing, about, considering that killing others, war, (e.g. Yemen), engaging in
aggro (Qatar) might help - as that might please the USA, who encourages all aggro and sells
arms, etc. Won't end well for KSA for sure all Internationals are wondering who will grab
what when collapse it is.
Try to put aside, for the moment, the insufferable arrogance of American meddling in Europe's
energy market, with a view to restricting its choice while – laughably – pretending it is broadening
European energy options.
The readers and commenters of this blog will be well aware, since it has been a topic of discussion
for years here, that a critical underpinning of the western plan to seize Ukraine and wrest it into
the western orbit was the premise that Russia would be forced by simple momentum to go along with
it. As long as events continued to unfold too quickly to get ahead of, Russia would have to help
supply the sinews of its own destruction. And a big part of that was the assumption that Russia would
help to finance Ukraine's transition to a powerful western fulcrum upon which to apply leverage against
it, through continued trade with Ukraine and continued transit of Europe's energy supply through
Ukraine's pipeline system.
But Russia slapped a trade embargo on most Ukrainian goods, and rescinded its tariff-free status
as it became clear Brussels planned to use it to stovepipe European trade goods into the Russian
market, through Ukraine – thus crushing domestic industries which would not be able to compete on
economically-favorable terms. The armchair strategists nearly shit a brick when construction of the
South Stream pipeline commenced, bypassing Ukraine and depriving it of about $2 billion annually
in transit fees. But
pressure ultimately forced Bulgaria to throw a wrench into the works, and the pipeline plans
were shelved, to much victory dancing in the west. There was
not quite as much happy-dancing in Bulgaria , but they were only ever a pawn anyway.
Sidebar for a moment, here; while the $2 Billion annually in transit fees is extremely important,
Ukraine's pre-crisis GDP was $163 Billion. The funds realized for transit fees are important because
(a) Russia has to pay them and (b) the west will have to come up with the equivalent in aid if Ukraine
loses out on them. But the real value intrinsic to Ukraine as a transit country is its physical
reality as an interface for Russian gas transit to Europe – what is a bridge can be easily turned
into a wall. Any time Washington thinks Russia needs some more shit on its face, Ukraine can be prodded
to announce a doubling of its transit fees, or to kick off some other dispute which the popular press
will adroitly spin to make Russia appear to be an unreliable supplier. Therefore, it is essential
to western strategy that significant amounts of Russian gas continue to transit Ukraine. Sufficiently
so that Europe continues to evolve
ever-more-desperate contingency plans in order to keep receiving gas through the country which
was known to have provoked the previous shutoff of European supplies by siphoning Europe-bound gas
for its own use. That's despite the assurances of Germany and western partners of Gazprom in the
Nord Stream line that it will mean cheaper gas prices for Europe.
"... Yamal is projected to double Russia's share of the growing global LNG market by the time it reaches full capacity of 16.5m tonnes a year - equivalent to more than 80 per cent of China's annual demand - by 2021. Construction is three-quarters complete and production from the first phase of the project is due to commence by the end of this year. ..."
"... More than 95 per cent of Yamal's expected output has already been sold through 15 to 20 year contracts, with customers mostly in Asia and Europe. ..."
Truth is Russia has been looking for an excuse to get out of the business of Shipping Natural
Gas to the West and the South, altogether and these US Sanctions and EU Complaints about Gazprom
Pipeline Construction, may just be the out they have been looking for. In Jan 2016, Russia completed
7 Massive High-Pressure Gas Pipelines, 2 to India and 5 to China. The ones to India make 4 total
Gas Lines to India, but the 5 to China are the first time China, has had access to Russian Natural
Gas. The contracts India and China signed with Gazprom are 50 years, and the price of NG starts
at more than double the highest rate Gazprom charges in Europe, the icing on the cake however
is that the currency is not US Paper Promissory Notes(Petro Dollars), but Gold Bullion. At full
capacity those pipelines can use every single NG resource Gazprom, has at the present time, and
all future NG resources. So, Gazprom would be foolish not to want to cut all off its Western and
Southern pipelines off, and divert Maximum Flow East. In addition to these NG Pipelines, there
are Crude Oil and Diesel pipelines under construction, going to China and India – Completion date
scheduled for between November 2017 and January 2018. Chinese and Indian Construction Crews completed
their internal distribution pipeline networks in 2016, and have 7 Oil Refineries in various stages
of completion. -– All American III Percenter and Combat Disabled US Veteran"
Now..remind me what was this stuff about 'Murica shipping LNG to europe???
LOL!!!!
That would indeed be delightful if there were even the whiff of truth about it; but, unfortunately,
there is not. Europe is still Russia's most important gas market by far. Numbers on the Russia-China
gas deal are hard to come by and
reporters who quote the price China will pay are just guessing because nobody has officially
disclosed that figure and will not; it is strictly confidential.
However, the China-vs-EU figures are not even close; starting next year, Russia will export
30-38 BcM annually to China, and that might go as high as double as the agreement evolves. So,
say 65 BcM annually, in a couple of years. That's still far less than half
what Gazprom exports annually
to Europe – 178.3 BcM in 2016, a significant jump over the previous year's 158.6 BcM.
Moreover, nearly all the increases in the past decade have been to imports by western
Europe. Despite all the preaching in the media, the only countries which seem to be seriously
trying to wean themselves off of Russian gas – with little to limited success, it must be said
– are eastern European countries. One of the biggest yappers in the west is the UK but the UK
went from zero imports of Russian gas in 2003 to the
fourth-biggest European importer in 2013 .
That little quick-reference pocket guide is actually chock-full of useful facts which you can
whip out and quote whenever some pea-brained bucket-mouthed know-nothing is trying to blizzard
you with blue-sky bullshit. Here's a few:
1. All the blather and angst about reducing Europe's dependency on Russian gas imports conveniently
ignores one buzzing fly in the ointment – long-term contracts. Of 178.6 BcM imported by Europe
in 2013, 166 BcM of it was under 30-year contracts. By far the most of it. And you know what would
happen if the EU broke a contract in order to reduce its imports, even if it could practically
do so under conditions in which domestic sources of supply are rapidly drying up, which it can't.
Also, contract supplies are by definition sanctions-exempt.
2. Home-grown Shale gas is not going to ride to the rescue. Even if Europe could tap supplies
which are not sour with so much nitrogen that you can't even burn it, in order to reach shale
gas supplies of only 28 BcM annually Europe would have to drill 800-1000 new wells every year
for 10 years. Let's see that spun as fiscally viable, or sensible in any way, shape or form.
3. Blabber about the Southern Gas Corridor was always nothing more than that – supplies from
Azerbaijan to Europe were never expected to total more than 30 BcM, about what Russia expects
to export to China starting in 2018, and it would have taken until 2030 to reach that capacity.
4. LNG actually holds the best promise of undercutting Russian supply, and Europe's regassification
terminals actually could handle more than the combined total of Russian imports now; 200 BcM.
But LNG supplies to Europe depend entirely on whether they can be profitable, and all current
objective studies find that Russia can keep LNG away as long as it likes, simply by consistently
pricing its pipeline supplies lower than LNG. Given what it would cost Uncle Sam to get his supplies
to market, Gazprom can still easily do that and turn a handsome profit.
I'm glad you brought that up; quite apart from the very interesting information contained in
the article itself, it is a springboard to a larger discussion – is Russia equally committed
to reducing its dependency on European pipelines as the Europeans are? Some say yes: Russia's
$27 Billion icebreaking LNG Carrier project is an eye-opener which has been more or
less entirely left out of energy discussions. And
its target market is Asia .
Yamal is projected to double Russia's share of the growing global LNG market by the
time it reaches full capacity of 16.5m tonnes a year - equivalent to more than 80 per cent
of China's annual demand - by 2021. Construction is three-quarters complete and production
from the first phase of the project is due to commence by the end of this year.
More than 95 per cent of Yamal's expected output has already been sold through 15 to
20 year contracts, with customers mostly in Asia and Europe.
That's hardcore! Thanks Mark. So the Chinese stepped in to take up the slack created by US
sanctions against Timchenko's Novatek part of the project. Another US epic fail.
It's curious that the West's interpretation of 'globalization' hasn't turned out as expected.
They saw it as western globo-corporations buying in around the world, but globalization has
naturally progressed as 'multi-polarization' of global power, away from the US & the West's
dominance. The Chinese stepping in is a perfect example. It shows that Russia has real options
which it is building and if needs be, at some point in the future, tell the 'No thanks!'.
"... The U.S. is on track to produce 10 million barrels of oil per day on average next year, according to a forecast from the Energy Information Administration -- a milestone that would shatter a record set in 1970. ..."
"... Although "dominance" may be hyperbole in that context as well -- given totals that exporters such as Qatar are achieving -- capturing world markets for US LNG exporters is a major driver of US policy. Ukraine, the nonsense about Russian interference in US elections, and the new Senate sanctions against European companies working with Russia on the Baltic Sea pipeline are three cases in point. ..."
Trump is set to deliver a speech at the Energy Department on Thursday focused
almost entirely on energy exports -- describing how the foreign sale of U.S.
natural gas, oil and coal helps strengthen the country's influence globally,
bolster international alliances, and help stabilize global markets. Energy
Secretary Rick Perry may touch on similar themes when he speaks Tuesday with
analysts and executives at the U.S. Energy Information Administration
conference in Washington.[..]
Ironically, some of Trump's policies could exacerbate the market challenges
facing oil, gas and coal, by spurring more domestic production at a time when a
supply glut is already suppressing prices.
The U.S. is on track to produce 10 million barrels of oil per day on average
next year, according to a forecast from the Energy Information Administration
-- a milestone that would shatter a record set in 1970.
'Dominance' Sought
Trump's theme of "energy dominance" marks an evolution. For years, the catch
phrase of choice has been "energy independence," as politicians and industry
officials sought to highlight how a new era of abundance was helping the U.S.
wean itself from foreign sources of oil and natural gas.
That was in turn a dramatic change from the 1970s, when former President
Jimmy Carter turned down the White House thermostats and used a televised
address in February 1977 to urge consumers to conserve energy amid a permanent
"shortage." After that, federal energy policy became rooted in the view that
oil and gas were in short supply.[.]
"Trump is reorienting our national rhetoric toward 'dominance,'" said Kevin
Book, analyst with ClearView Energy Partners LLC. "Captives crave independence;
competitors strive to dominate. It's a shift from getting by to getting ahead."
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Reminds of the old song – "Dream, dream, dream"
Forecast is 10 million bbls per day 2018 and we are proposing dominance in
global energy production!! What a twit.
48) Yep, it is funny. According to above quoted US Energy Information administration
the US consumed 19.68 million barrels of petroleum products per day in 2016.
Mainly the reference to "dominance" applies to liquefied natural gas. Comparing
LNG exports during the first 3 months of 2015 with the first 3 months of 2017
shows an increase by a factor of 30.
Although "dominance" may be hyperbole in that context as well -- given totals
that exporters such as Qatar are achieving -- capturing world markets for US LNG
exporters is a major driver of US policy. Ukraine, the nonsense about Russian
interference in US elections, and the new Senate sanctions against European
companies working with Russia on the Baltic Sea pipeline are three cases in point.
Mainly the reference to "dominance" applies to liquified natural gas. Comparing LNG exports
during the first 3 months of 2015 with the first 3 months of 2017 shows an increase by a factor
of 30.
.[capturing] world markets for US LNG exporters is a major driver of US policy.
My comment was it's on someone's wish list and dreaming on.
Do you have any idea the cost to set up LNG terminals and cost to transport from US to global
- for starters, to compete with Russia, Iran, Qatar and others in the EU and Asian markets?
Austrian Federal Chancellor Christian Kern (SPÖ) and German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel
(SPD) commented as follows today (15 June) on the approval by the United States Senate of legislation
regarding sanctions against Russia:
...
It is in the common interest of the EU and the US to take resolute and unified action with
a view to resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
We cannot, however, accept the threat of illegal extraterritorial sanctions being imposed
on European companies that are participating in efforts to expand Europe's energy supply network!
The draft bill of the US is surprisingly candid about what is actually at stake, namely
selling American liquefied natural gas and ending the supply of Russian natural gas to the
European market. The bill aims to protect US jobs in the natural gas and petroleum industries.
Political sanctions should not in any way be tied to economic interests. Threatening to
impose penalties on companies in Germany, Austria and other European countries with regard
to their business in the United States if they participate in, or fund, natural gas projects
involving Russia, such as Nord Stream 2, impacts European-American relations in a new and very
negative way. This is about the competitiveness of our energy-intensive industries, and about
thousands of jobs. We therefore strongly support the efforts of the US Department of State
to amend this draft bill.
"... A pipeline through Syria would have been a great boost to national economy for a number of years & could raise a port of the country to one of global importance, just at a time that Turkey started turning the spigot of Euphrates off ..."
"... Consider that Qatar would have been a captive ally for Syria, a commodity rather in short supply for that country. The best part of it is, perhaps, that Syria presumably had a natural aversion to the transit fees. ..."
"... There is another interesting story in this regard, which is to do with (at least) three rounds of exploration for gas in Saudi Arabia, all failed, and the special need for gas to service its petrochemical industry. If memory serves, the reason is they want to upgrade the heavy crude portion of their production, which has steadily been growing, and which the Saudis might have to sell as bunker oil at great discount, if they fail to find gas. ..."
"... the Qataris were told in no uncertain terms that their gas 'had to remain in the peninsula' (Arabian subcontinent) for consumption, to serve the oil sector. ..."
"... If this is right (honestly, I do not know), it might explain quite a bit about the rivalries of the extremist Moslem clergy, and their activities both within the Moslem world and abroad, why not, even developments in Europe & the States. ..."
|Jen@31 writes about the legendary Qatari pipeline. That story made its appearance early in
the conflict, and if anybody knows its origin, I would be keen to be let know.
That story goes that Assad would not let Qatar have its pipeline because, presumably, Russians
wanted to retain their stranglehold on European gas supplies.
The subtext is that those Russians
must be very hard task masters and Assad, the lowliest of low lives, a terrified thug. And when
the troubles started, Assad did not go back to the Qataris to discuss the matter over.
Sorry, I cannot square that.
A pipeline through Syria would have been a great boost to national economy for a number of
years & could raise a port of the country to one of global importance, just at a time that Turkey
started turning the spigot of Euphrates off (this is a sense I have, do not know if it is right)
& a protracted drought and economic hardship all hit the country at the same time.
Consider that
Qatar would have been a captive ally for Syria, a commodity rather in short supply for that country.
The best part of it is, perhaps, that Syria presumably had a natural aversion to the transit fees.
There is another interesting story in this regard, which is to do with (at least) three
rounds of exploration for gas in Saudi Arabia, all failed, and the special need for gas to service
its petrochemical industry. If memory serves, the reason is they want to upgrade the heavy crude
portion of their production, which has steadily been growing, and which the Saudis might have
to sell as bunker oil at great discount, if they fail to find gas.
The story was run in the English papers of the Gulf circa 2012, whereby the Qataris were told
in no uncertain terms that their gas 'had to remain in the peninsula' (Arabian subcontinent) for
consumption, to serve the oil sector.
Once I chanced on an article on the educational proclivities of the thousands of the Saudi
princes. Any guess? Yes, a good portion of them goes in for religious studies! Somehow I do not
think they aspire to be lowly priests; but if not, where might they wish to have their sees? What
if the other principalities of the Gulf have nobilities with similar outlooks & hopes?
If this is right (honestly, I do not know), it might explain quite a bit about the rivalries of
the extremist Moslem clergy, and their activities both within the Moslem world and abroad, why
not, even developments in Europe & the States.
@36 & @31 I think you are both right. The Pipelinistan angle is a major part of this feud.
A probable change of heart from Qatar who has seen the light that no regime change will happen
in Syria therefore making a Fars --> Iraq --> Syria -> Lebanon LNG pipeline a realistic endeavor
is causing panic in KSA/US/IS who are trying to pressure Qatar to back-off from any deals with
Iran..
If Turkey is firm on protecting Qatar then the ultimatum will come to pass and be null
and void..
Don Bass | Jun 24, 2017 1:34:34 AM | 57
@ Vic
Y'know, when I read a comment such as yours: "~ I don't reckon its got anything to do with
a pipeline ~" I immediately think of that old trope: Better to remain silent and be thought a
fool, than to open ones mouth and remove all doubts"
Vic: instead of visiting here to blatantly display your ignorance, how about more usefully
spending that typing time to research the topic, hmmm?
The Imperial drive to crush Syria has been in play since the early 1980s, when Assad senior
was in power.
"... "In my view this is a deep power struggle between Qatar and Saudi Arabia that has little to do with stated reasons regarding Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. The action to isolate Qatar was clearly instigated during US President Trump's recent visit in Riyadh where he pushed the unfortunate idea of a Saudi-led "Arab NATO" to oppose Iranian influence in the region. ..."
"... Moreover, Qatar was acting increasingly independent of the heavy Wahhabite hand of Saudi Arabia and threatening Saudi domination over the Gulf States. Kuwait, Oman, as well as non-Gulf Turkey were coming closer to Qatar and even Pakistan now may think twice about joining a Saudi-led "Arab NATO". Bin Salman has proven a disaster as a defense strategist, as proven in the Yemen debacle. ..."
"... Kuwait and Oman are urgently trying to get Saudi to backdown on this, but that is unlikely as behind Saudi Arabia stands the US and promises of tens of billions of dollars in US arms. ..."
"... This foolish US move to use their proxy, in this case Riyadh, to discipline those not "behaving" according to Washington wishes, could well be the turning point, the point of collapse of US remaining influence in the entire Middle East in the next several years." ..."
"... KSA could not have taken this course of action all by itself. Someone somewhere must be egging them on. But who? The US seems to have no interest in a Saudi-Qatari conflict. Israel might, but only if said conflict is resolved in Saudi favor. ..."
"... I am therefore coming to the conclusion that there is no longer clear leadership of US policy and there are different factions within the US government. The white house and CIA are supporting the Saudis while the Pentagon supports Qatar. This is just a hunch, but it seems like it could make sense. Perhaps this is what happens when a government is in a state of decompensation. ..."
"... It is mind boggling that a fundamental reshaping of the Middle East was most likely put in motion by Trump completely oblivious of what he was doing shooting from the hip on his Saudi trip. ..."
"... Outside of an outright invasion of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, it is hard to see this as a once in a life time geopolitical gift to Russia, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Iran. ..."
"... Now when July 3 comes and goes, Saudi Arabia will look completely impotent in the eyes of the countries in the region. ..."
"... Gaddafi's speech to the Arab League in Syria 2008 was so prescient ..."
"... "We [the Arabs] are the enemies of one another I'm sad to say, we deceive one another, we gloat at the misfortune of one another, and we conspire against one another, and an Arab's enemy is another Arab's friend. ..."
"... I quite like the WWI parallel. Trump as Kaiser Wilhelm? There certainly are some striking similarities in character. ..."
"... "...gifted, with a quick understanding, sometimes brilliant, with a taste for the modern,-technology, industry, science -- but at the same time superficial, hasty, restless, unable to relax, without any deeper level of seriousness, without any desire for hard work or drive to see things through to the end, without any sense of sobriety, for balance and boundaries, or even for reality and real problems, uncontrollable and scarcely capable of learning from experience, desperate for applause and success, -- as Bismarck said early on in his life, he wanted every day to be his birthday-romantic, sentimental and theatrical, unsure and arrogant, with an immeasurably exaggerated self-confidence and desire to show off, a juvenile cadet, who never took the tone of the officers' mess out of his voice, and brashly wanted to play the part of the supreme warlord, full of panicky fear of a monotonous life without any diversions, and yet aimless, pathological in his hatred against his English mother." ..."
"... It also stands to reason if you simply consider Saudi's importance regionally: A lot is made of Iran's threat to Saudi influence, but Turkey - thanks in part to considerable investment by Qatar currently while investment from elsewhere has reduced massively -- is also very threatening to Saudi's influence, especially on the religious front. ..."
"... Iran representing Shia interests in the region and Turkey representing Sunni interests is not a difficult future to imagine. It would of course grate with Saudi Arabia given that it had poured vast amounts of money into the Turkish economy and the diyanet. ..."
"... Hassan Nasrallah has given his annual International Al-Quds Day speech with plenty of fire aimed at the usual suspects. The Daily Star reports: 'Nasrallah accused Saudi Arabia of "paving way for Israel" in the region. ..."
"... Actually, I hope for many more benefits will show up from this quarrel than improved profits for Iranian produce growers. It is worthwhile to observe that Dubai, a component emirate of UAE, has gigantic economic links with Iran, which must be tolerated by overlords from Abu Dhabi: they had to bail out their cousins after real estate collapse, so they have big money stake in Dubai being prosperous. Potentially, Dubai and especially the hapless vegetable and dairy producers in KSA can lose a bundle (the latter had to invest a lot in farms for Qatari market, it is not like letting cows graze on abundant grasslands plus planting cucumbers and waiting for the rain to water them). Aljazeera and Muslim Brotherhood are more irritating to KSA and UAE than an occasional polite missive to Iran. ..."
"... Qatar opened the Middle East's first centre for clearing transactions in the Chinese yuan on Tuesday, saying it would boost trade and investment between China and Gulf Arab economies. ..."
"... The only hope for Saudi Arabia is to re-denominate oil sales in multiple currencies such as the WTO drawing rights, of course based on another formula, perhaps based on the countries that purchase the most oil. This would be the only way for the royalty to gain longevity as rulers of the country. Any other scenario spells disaster. ..."
William Engdahls views. "In my view this is a deep power struggle between Qatar and Saudi
Arabia that has little to do with stated reasons regarding Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. The action
to isolate Qatar was clearly instigated during US President Trump's recent visit in Riyadh where
he pushed the unfortunate idea of a Saudi-led "Arab NATO" to oppose Iranian influence in the region.
The Saudi move, clearly instigated by Prince Bin Salman, Minister of Defense, was not about
going against terrorism. If it were about terrorism, bin Salman would have to arrest himself and
most of his Saudi cabinet as one of the largest financiers of terrorism in the world, and shut
all Saudi-financed madrasses around the world, from Pakistan to Bosnia-Herzgovina to Kosovo. Another
factor according to informed sources in Holland is that Washington wanted to punish Qatar for
seeking natural gas sales with China priced not in US dollars but in Renminbi. That apparently
alarmed Washington, as Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter and most to Asia.
Moreover, Qatar was acting increasingly independent of the heavy Wahhabite hand of Saudi
Arabia and threatening Saudi domination over the Gulf States. Kuwait, Oman, as well as non-Gulf
Turkey were coming closer to Qatar and even Pakistan now may think twice about joining a Saudi-led
"Arab NATO". Bin Salman has proven a disaster as a defense strategist, as proven in the Yemen
debacle.
As to the future, it appears that Qatar is not about to rollover and surrender in face of Saudi
actions. Already Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani is moving to establish closer ties with Iran,
with Turkey that might include Turkish military support, and most recently with Russia.
Kuwait and Oman are urgently trying to get Saudi to backdown on this, but that is unlikely
as behind Saudi Arabia stands the US and promises of tens of billions of dollars in US arms.
This
foolish US move to use their proxy, in this case Riyadh, to discipline those not "behaving" according
to Washington wishes, could well be the turning point, the point of collapse of US remaining influence
in the entire Middle East in the next several years."
KSA could not have taken this course of action all by itself. Someone somewhere must be egging
them on. But who? The US seems to have no interest in a Saudi-Qatari conflict. Israel might, but
only if said conflict is resolved in Saudi favor.
I am therefore coming to the conclusion that there is no longer clear leadership of US
policy and there are different factions within the US government. The white house and CIA are
supporting the Saudis while the Pentagon supports Qatar. This is just a hunch, but it seems like
it could make sense. Perhaps this is what happens when a government is in a state of decompensation.
It is mind boggling that a fundamental reshaping of the Middle East was most likely put in motion
by Trump completely oblivious of what he was doing shooting from the hip on his Saudi trip.
Outside
of an outright invasion of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, it is hard to see this as a once in a life time
geopolitical gift to Russia, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Iran.
Now when July 3 comes and goes, Saudi Arabia will look completely impotent in the eyes of the
countries in the region.
I wonder if there is some sort of interest between Russia, Turkey, Qatar,
and Iran on a coup in Saudi Arabia. I can't imagine it would be that difficult. I know it is not
Putin's policy to play these types of games like the US Regime, but one has to assume that people
are just fucking done with the clowns running Saudi Arabia.
Gaddafi's speech to the Arab League in Syria 2008 was so prescient..
"We [the Arabs] are the enemies of one another I'm sad to say, we deceive one another, we
gloat at the misfortune of one another, and we conspire against one another, and an Arab's
enemy is another Arab's friend.
Along comes a foreign power, occupies an Arab country [Iraq] and hangs its President,and
we all sit on the sidelines laughing. Any one of you might be next, yes.
Peter AU "Is Qatar, like Turkey, already heading for a multi-polar world? For 25 years, the US
was the only game in town, but with Russia's move into Syria there are now options."
Hard to see the world heading in that direction:
Russia and China will no longer allow the US Regime to use the same tactics to start wars
against Iraq and Libya anymore.
China is methodically closing off the South China Sea to the US Regime
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is starting to increase their shared defense
Europe is openly talking about creating its own independent defense force
I wonder if Qatar is already in talks with China about joining the Silk Road Initiative now
that it is openly moving into the Russia and Iran sphere.
@17 The best is yet to come. There's a chance Netanyahu will fly into Riyadh to tell everybody
what to do. I'm sure he wants what's best for the region.
I quite like the WWI parallel. Trump as Kaiser Wilhelm? There certainly are some striking
similarities in character.
Quote from Thomas Nipperdey:
"...gifted, with a quick understanding, sometimes brilliant, with a taste for the modern,-technology,
industry, science -- but at the same time superficial, hasty, restless, unable to relax, without
any deeper level of seriousness, without any desire for hard work or drive to see things through
to the end, without any sense of sobriety, for balance and boundaries, or even for reality
and real problems, uncontrollable and scarcely capable of learning from experience, desperate
for applause and success, -- as Bismarck said early on in his life, he wanted every day to
be his birthday-romantic, sentimental and theatrical, unsure and arrogant, with an immeasurably
exaggerated self-confidence and desire to show off, a juvenile cadet, who never took the tone
of the officers' mess out of his voice, and brashly wanted to play the part of the supreme
warlord, full of panicky fear of a monotonous life without any diversions, and yet aimless,
pathological in his hatred against his English mother."
Last month at the China-Arab Cooperation Forum in Doha, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi postulated
that Qatar should take part in the realization of China's Silk Road Initiatives.
Yeah, you're right. I hadn't looked into the question sufficiently. Of course the Chinese are
looking for more external finance for the project. They don't want to be the only ones who pay.
Fat chance, though. The Qataris have been in austerity since the decline in the oil price. Someone
I know who works in the Qatar Museum has seen all her colleagues let go. And now the crisis with
Saudi.
The Qataris may even have signed contracts with China. But if you know anything about the Gulf,
there's a wide gap between signing a contract, and actually getting paid. It depends upon how
the prince concerned feels about the project when the question of payment comes up. A company
I worked for in the 80s took two years to get payment, even though they were experts in Gulfi
relations.
The issue of the threat regarding the Turkish base didn't surprise me much, though. I think
it's clear that if MB is the target, then of course Turkey has to become a target, and Qatar -
Turkey ties have to be broken. It stands to reason.
It also stands to reason if you simply consider Saudi's importance regionally: A lot is
made of Iran's threat to Saudi influence, but Turkey - thanks in part to considerable investment
by Qatar currently while investment from elsewhere has reduced massively -- is also very threatening
to Saudi's influence, especially on the religious front.
Iran representing Shia interests in the region and Turkey representing Sunni interests
is not a difficult future to imagine. It would of course grate with Saudi Arabia given that it
had poured vast amounts of money into the Turkish economy and the diyanet.
On a slightly different note there's a scandal going on in western Turkey, in Duzce, at the
moment because the local authority has unveiled a statue of Rabia - the four fingered Muslim Brotherhood
salute! :-)
Hassan Nasrallah has given his annual International Al-Quds Day speech with plenty of fire
aimed at the usual suspects. The Daily Star reports: 'Nasrallah accused Saudi Arabia of
"paving way for Israel" in the region.
You did not address the argument I made, namely, that Aljazeera editors apparently belong
to "Muslims, who immediately set out to support it [Darwinian theory of evolution] unaware
of the blasphemy and error in it." These guys pretend to be nice Wahhabis, dressing in dishdashas,
their womenfolks in abayas, but in fact they spread heretical and blasphemous doctrines. However,
I am more of a Khazar than a Wahhabi and I do not treat this argument seriously.
It is the fact that compared to other government supported TV/online venues, say RT or PressTV,
Aljazeera is well written and edited, has plenty of valuable material, etc. It is a worthwhile
place to check when you want to get a composite picture on some issues. And it irritates KSA
potentates in a myriad of ways, precisely because it targets "politically engaged Muslim".
It is a good example that pluralism has inherent positive aspects, devils that quarrel are
better than "One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them, One Ring to bring them all,
and in the darkness bind them."
====
Actually, I hope for many more benefits will show up from this quarrel than improved profits
for Iranian produce growers. It is worthwhile to observe that Dubai, a component emirate of UAE,
has gigantic economic links with Iran, which must be tolerated by overlords from Abu Dhabi: they
had to bail out their cousins after real estate collapse, so they have big money stake in Dubai
being prosperous. Potentially, Dubai and especially the hapless vegetable and dairy producers
in KSA can lose a bundle (the latter had to invest a lot in farms for Qatari market, it is not
like letting cows graze on abundant grasslands plus planting cucumbers and waiting for the rain
to water them). Aljazeera and Muslim Brotherhood are more irritating to KSA and UAE than an occasional
polite missive to Iran.
One pattern in Syrian civil war were persistent and bloody feuds between jihadists that formed
roughly four groups:
"salafi", presumably funded by KSA,
"brothers", presumably funded by Qatar and Turkey,
al-Qaeda/al-Nusra/something new that was forcing the first two groups to surrender some
weapons (and money?),
and ISIS that had more complex sources (or more hidden).
Medium term strategy of Syrian government and allies for the near future is to "de-escalate"
in the western part of the country and finish off ISIS, partitioning hitherto ISIS territories
in some satisfactory way, while maintaining some type of truce with the Kurds. Then finish off
the jihadists, except those most directly protected by Turkey. Finally, take care of the Kurds.
Some sufficiently safe federalism can be part of the solution, but nothing that would lead to
enclaves with their own military forces and their own foreign policy, like Iraqi Kurdistan.
That requires the opposing parties to exhibit somewhat suicidal behavior. A big time official
feud between "brothers" and "salafi + Kurds" (a pair that shares some funding but with scant mutual
affection" can help a lot. Most of all, a big time feud between Turkey and KSA can stabilize the
situation in which jihadists from Idlib and northern Hama observe a truce/de-escalation, while
their colleagues from south Syria get clobbered, and definitely will induce them to refrain from
attacking Syrian government while it is busy against ISIS. After Erdogan was prevented from marching
onto Raqqa, he has two options: "Sunnistan" in eastern Syria under domination of YPG or a much
smaller YPG dominated territory that can be subsequently digested. Option one is a true nightmare
for Erdogan, more than a mere paranoia. However, Erdogan is also "pan-Sunni" Islamist, so he could
be tempted to backstab infidels from Damascus, as he was doing before. An open feud with Sunnistan
sponsors should help him to choose.
Qatar opened the Middle East's first centre for clearing transactions in the Chinese yuan
on Tuesday, saying it would boost trade and investment between China and Gulf Arab economies.
"The launch of the region's first renminbi clearing center in Doha creates the necessary
platform to realise the full potential of Qatar and the region's trade relationship with China,"
Qatar's central bank governor Sheikh Abdullah bin Saud al-Thani said at a ceremony.
"It will facilitate greater cross-border renminbi investment and financing business, and
promote greater trade and economic links between China and the region, paving the way for better
financial cooperation and enhancing the pre-eminence of Qatar as a financial hub in MENA (Middle
East and North Africa)."
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) Doha branch is the clearing bank for the centre,
which intends to serve companies from around the Middle East.
A clearing bank can handle all parts of a currency transaction from when a commitment is
made until it is settled, reducing costs and time taken for trading.
The centre "will improve the ease of transactions between companies in the region and China
by allowing them to settle their trade directly in renminbi, drawing increased trade through
Qatar and boosting bilateral and economic collaboration between Qatar and China," said ICBC
chairman Jiang Jianqing.
At present, Qatar and the Gulf's other wealthy oil and gas exporters use the U.S. dollar
much more than the yuan. Most of their currencies are pegged to the dollar, and most of their
huge foreign currency reserves are denominated in dollars.
Laguerre @27
Date of article April 24, 2017
In April 2015, Qatar opened Qatar Renminbi Centre (QRC), the region's first clearing centre
for the Chinese currency. This allows for trades priced in RMB to be cleared locally in Qatar
rather than in other centres such as Shanghai or Hong Kong.ICBC has since become the designated
clearance bank servicing the QRC, which has handled more than 350bn yuan ($52.6bn) since its inception.
http://emerge85.io/blog/the-middle-kingdoms-big-four-and-the-gulf
~ ~ ~ ~
Trending and not very far to seeing what is now held under the table. Oil will also be priced
in RMB because KSA, to maintain their share of exports to China, will need to get on board. For
now, it's been reaffirmed, SA does the whipping and USA protects the Royals.
About Sunni-Shia split. My impression is that this is mostly KSA + UAE obsession. For example,
there is a substantial Shia minority in Pakistan, but the dominant thinking among the Sunnis seems
to be "Muslim solidarity". There is a minority that is virulently anti-Shia, but they are politically
isolated and despised exactly on the account of breaking that solidarity. After all, Pakistan
forms the boundary of the Umma with non-Muslim India. I base that opinion on comments in online
Pakistani newspapers, and what I have heard from an acquaintance who was a religiously conservative
Sunni Pakistani. To him, the attack on Yemen by KSA was wrong "because they are Muslim". So even
if Pakistan is to a certain extend in Saudi pocket, and its deep state has an extremist Sunni
component, overt siding against "fellow Muslim" is out of the question.
Egypt is another case. One can find rather isolated anti-Shia outbursts, like writings of some
fossils in Al-Azhar (who are responsible for the state religion), but the government steers away
from that, and in spite of hefty subsidies, it joined Yemen war only symbolically and for a very
short time (unlike Sudan that really needs the cash for its mercenaries). As you move further
away from the Persian Gulf, the indifference to the "split" increases. As far as Qatar and Aljazeera
are concerned, probably no one detests them more than Egyptian elite, as they were valiantly fighting
Muslim Brotherhood for the sake of progress with some occasional large massacres (killing several
hundreds of protesters, issuing hundreds of death penalties to participants in a single protest,
in absentia! incredible idiocy+cruelty). That explains why al-Sisi joined KSA against Qatar.
However, the civil war in Libya that embroils Egypt is a classic case of unexpected alliances.
Egypt with a help from Russia, KSA and UAE supports the "eastern government" that bases legitimacy
on democratic parliament re-assembled in Tobruq on Egyptian border, and dominated by military
strongman Haftar. The latter has the best chance of all people to become a military strongman
of all Libya, but apparently has meager popularity and thus, too few troops. He patched that problem
by an alliance with a Salafi group that had a numerous militia, currently partitioned into smaller
units and incorporated into Haftar's brigades. Even with that, his progress on the ground is very,
very gradual. Against him is the government in Tripolis, legitimized by a more fresh parliament
and UN/EU, plus a military force that includes several militias. Part of the parliamentary support
stems from Muslim Brotherhood, and some part of military support comes from Salafi militias. There
are also aspects of a "war of all against all", seems that Saharan tribes collected a lot of fresh
blood feuds.
Thus Qatari+Turkish support for Tripoli government is aligned with EU, and Egyptian support
for Tobruq government is aligned with Russia and KSA.
I thought I might just throw this out there and see what sticks. US policy is based on power and
control. Saudi Arabia has been a good ally but it does not serve use policy or strategic goals
any longer. Not really. I think the grand prize for destabilizing the middle east is Saudi Arabia.
It would be the only way to truly control the development of other nations or more specifically,
to control their rivalries and save the the US from complete economic breakdown. The Saudi's are
being plumbed by the best of them, telling them they are you friends, we have your back and so
long as Saudi Arabia loses more money and keeps lossing money in needless wars etc.
The only hope for Saudi Arabia is to re-denominate oil sales in multiple currencies such
as the WTO drawing rights, of course based on another formula, perhaps based on the countries
that purchase the most oil. This would be the only way for the royalty to gain longevity as rulers
of the country. Any other scenario spells disaster. Of course, it would be a rough go for
them for a while, but in the end, a slight change in outlook and the unfair advantage given to
the US would go a long way, economically to stabilizing large blocks of countries. They also could
of course change their outlook on the world, but that is certainly a difficult challenge. If the
Muslim world came together based on their similarities, they could be a very powerful block.
The US no longer has the financial velocity it once maintained and this is much more due to
insane ideas about being a hegemon. I never thought revolution would be possible in the US, but
it is coming and it won't take much. The country does not appear to have intelligence peddle back
a number of policies, drunk on its own poison, it makes capitalism look disgusting. A new business
model is needed, one that developes mutual trade based on respect from within the exchange itself.
Saudi Arabia needs to cultivate multi-channel support for its biggest resource so that when the
returns are no longer there, they will have also developed multiple avenues to prosperity. Just
a thought.
No LNG carriers are currently registered under the US flag, and if the USA plans to be a serious
exporter it is going to need about 100 new LNG carriers over the next 30 years, something which is
frankly not practically achievable considering it takes about 2 years to build one, at a cost of
about $200 Million apiece". Of course, miracles can be made to happen if you pour enough money into
them.
The US's intervention is even more pathetic than it seems.
This is not a stand alone anti-Russia bill which would signal strength from the US, but an
adjunct to the anti-I-ran sanctions bill that continues to seek to punish I-ran in the vague hope
that it will pull the plug on the cast-iron nuclear deal it has signed with international partners.
The irony there is that I-ran Air is recapitalizing with both Airbus & Boeing (also ATR),
100 odd a piece, not to mention other significant investment opportunities for western firms.
They're quite the Gordian Tits!
Not only is there the potential of the Levianthan gas field off Cyprus/Israel/whatever, brutal
dictator Azeri gas will also be arriving in (larger, but not gigantic) quantities. Not to mention
that significant buyers of LNG, like the UK, have it come straight from Qatar. Is the US prepared
to sell LNG at a discount compared to Qatar that has strategic agreements and its own fundamental
interests to be protected by the Western (European) states as well?
So if this plan seems to damage not only the USA's allies but the USA itself, then what is
its purpose? Stick it to Trump. Mire any plans to re-balance relations with Russia almost at
any cost . It's a no brainer for Democrats as they neither hold a majority in the House or
the Senate, and there seem to be enough dog whistle Republicans willing to go along with it, including
those with mental problems like John 'Insane' McCaine. Ukraine is almost peripheral except as
a convenient tool. It think the US accepts they've screwed the pooch on the Ukraine so its only
value is to be used as a festering sore on Russia's frontier. Kiev mops up the completely free
public political support whilst it is being kicked in the bollox by the same people.
some interesting info on the sale of jets to qatar worth 12 billion and stuff like that..
and this
"QUESTION: Switching gears, Germany and Austria sharp – have sharply criticized the U.S. Senate
today for moves aimed at advancing a new legislation packaging new sanctions against Russia, which
tangentially deal with European countries as well. Austrian federal chancellor and German foreign
ministry released a joint statement, and I wanted to read one line from it to get your response
to this particular line: "The draft bill of the U.S. is surprisingly candid about what is actually
at stake, namely selling American liquefied natural gas and ending the supply of Russian natural
gas to the European markets."
MS NAUERT: Sorry, back up for a second? What did you say about the liquefied natural gas?
QUESTION: That the bill is trying to basically peddle U.S. LNG to the – to the European markets
– markets instead of the Russian natural gas. The bill aims to protect U.S. jobs and the natural
gas and petroleum industries. So what's your response to that?
MS NAUERT: Well, first, I'm not going to comment on anything that those nations said and their
criticism of anything going on on Capitol Hill. We would see it – and we talked about this last
week – we welcome the shipment of liquefied natural gas to Poland, to countries in that region,
if that were to come – become available to them, because it helps give them another option, another
option to get natural gas from other countries that are perhaps more stable or other countries
that can perhaps provide a regular flow of natural gas.
Much of the natural gas in Poland, as I understand it, comes from Russia, and that can be inconsistent.
Russia has the ability, as you well know, to turn off that natural gas, and that puts the Polish
people in a very difficult situation. So the U.S. provided another option. A regular source of
natural gas, especially in the winter months, we see as important for the United States and for
our allies."
Although unlikely, it would be amusing if support for Qatar led to an improvement in the
Iran/Turkey relationship.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 17, 2017 3:00:24 PM | 34
I agree Turkey is having its problems, but the Russian pipeline is moving along and managed
by Russia; Syria, Iraq and Iranian gas could all become clients of the pipeline, generating
significant revenue and jobs for Turkey as its hub. Far better that Turkey looks to Russia
with its sane international policies than to the the US's EU puppet.
Turkey has fallen in yet another trap set by the USA to weaken Erdogan.
Turkey has no more 'neighbors' friends, no more European friends, little american
sympathy, and now it is about to loose his rich Gulf friends.
Erdogan's foreign policy is close to total disaster.
The AKP success came from the economical reforms stimulated by the EU promises of
adhesion and to the smart and peaceful influence of Gulen in Turkey's institutions
and foreign policy.
Now Gulen and his allies are enemies. Turkey has gradually become a rogue state
controlled exclusively by a megalomaniac man blinded by religion and money.
After the Syria quagmire, the Qatar-Saudi conflict and its impact on Turkey's
economy, may turn to be fatal to Erdogan ruling.
Any Darwin Awards fans out there? For those few who have never heard of them, the Darwin Awards
celebrate those individuals who have rendered a significant service to mankind by taking themselves
out of the global gene pool. In preparing to discuss today's subject, I am reminded of unfortunate
1999 award-winner 'James' from Missouri, who became so fixated upon his love interest that he
tried to lop off
his own head with a chainsaw to demonstrate his commitment to an outcome on his terms. Although
he was ultimately unsuccessful on both counts, he did fatally injure himself, and died in hospital.
Ashes to ashes; dust to dust.
My intent today is to demonstrate clear destructive similarities between the above emotional decision
and the equally
simpleminded decision of the US Senate to impose further economic sanctions on Russia, this time
explicitly tying them to penalizing of European companies which do business with Russia – moreover,
in a clear attempt to stop the latter from proceeding with the Nord Stream II gas pipeline project.
This, in turn, is clearly an attempt by the USA to make Europe a captive market for its own energy
products, in the form of shipborne LNG. Significantly, that goal is also finally becoming clear to
Europe; or at least to the parts of it that matter, such as Germany (thanks for the tip, James!)
Try to put aside, for the moment, the insufferable arrogance of American meddling in Europe's energy
market, with a view to restricting its choice while – laughably – pretending it is broadening European
energy options.
The readers and commenters of this blog will be well aware, since it has been a topic of discussion
for years here, that a critical underpinning of the western plan to seize Ukraine and wrest it into
the western orbit was the premise that Russia would be forced by simple momentum to go along with
it. As long as events continued to unfold too quickly to get ahead of, Russia would have to help
supply the sinews of its own destruction. And a big part of that was the assumption that Russia would
help to finance Ukraine's transition to a powerful western fulcrum upon which to apply leverage against
it, through continued trade with Ukraine and continued transit of Europe's energy supply through
Ukraine's pipeline system. But Russia slapped a trade embargo on most Ukrainian goods, and rescinded
its tariff-free status as it became clear Brussels planned to use it to stovepipe European trade
goods into the Russian market, through Ukraine – thus crushing domestic industries which would not
be able to compete on economically-favourable terms. The armchair strategists nearly shit a brick
when construction of the South Stream pipeline commenced, bypassing Ukraine and depriving it of about
$2 billion annually in transit fees. But
pressure ultimately forced Bulgaria to throw a wrench into the works, and the pipeline plans
were shelved, to much victory dancing in the west. There was
not quite as much happy-dancing in Bulgaria , but they were only ever a pawn anyway.
Sidebar for a moment, here; while the $2 Billion annually in transit fees is extremely important,
Ukraine's pre-crisis GDP was $163 Billion. The funds realized for transit fees are important because
(a) Russia has to pay them and (b) the west will have to come up with the equivalent in aid if Ukraine
loses out on them. But the real value intrinsic to Ukraine as a transit country is its physical
reality as an interface for Russian gas transit to Europe – what is a bridge can be easily turned
into a wall.
Any time Washington thinks Russia needs some more shit on its face, Ukraine can be prodded to
announce a doubling of its transit fees, or to kick off some other dispute which the popular press
will adroitly spin to make Russia appear to be an unreliable supplier. Therefore, it is essential
to western strategy that significant amounts of Russian gas continue to transit Ukraine. Sufficiently
so that Europe continues to evolve
ever-more-desperate contingency plans in order to keep receiving gas through the country which
was known to have provoked the previous shutoff of European supplies by siphoning Europe-bound gas
for its own use. That's despite the assurances of Germany and western partners of Gazprom in the
Nord Stream line that it will mean cheaper gas prices for Europe.
But we knew this was coming, didn't we? Yes, we did, because as recently as last month, Democratic
senator Jean Shaheen, who sits on the Senate Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on European Affairs, announced
that the United States was
considering involving itself in the Nord Stream II pipeline project , with a view to killing
it stone dead. The purpose, as already mentioned, is to make way for LNG cargoes to Europe, cutting
Russia out of the business, on the assumption that without energy sales the Russian economy will
crumble and the country will collapse. Destroying Russia remains Washington's overriding strategic
objective.
So the stakes are high; high enough to provide context for Washington's bizarre and aggressive
behavior, and for its continued ridiculous insistence that Russia tampered with the 2016 US presidential
election. What are the chances Washington will succeed with its latest adventure in global bullying?
Not good, according to multiple sources. Let's take a look at how Platts views the prospects;
Platts, a division of S&P Global , is
headquartered in London and employs over 1,000 people in more than 15 offices worldwide. These include
global business centers such as New York, Shanghai and Sao Paulo, and major energy centers such as
Houston, Singapore and London, where Platts is based. Having hopefully established the firm's credentials
as someone who knows what they are talking about in the energy business, let's see what Platts has
to say about
the potential American LNG market in Europe . Mmmm .the review is mixed. At the outset, Platts
is admiring of Cheniere Energy's go-to-hell expansion. But a couple of things about that are cause
to curb enthusiasm. One, only 8 American LNG cargoes had gone to Europe so far; that was as of April
this year, when the report was released. Of those, 4 went to Spain, 3 to Portugal and 1 to Italy.
Two, the Iberian Peninsula is acknowledged by Platts as not particularly significant in terms of
gauging Europe's welcome of American LNG.
"Indeed, the fact that Portugal and Spain were the first European countries to import LNG
from the US is telling The Iberian Peninsula is considered an "island market" with poor interconnection
to the rest of Europe, so the delivery of US LNG into the region is not likely to be seen as a
sign that it will take hold in the wider European market."
The same passage points out that Russia does not supply the Iberian Peninsula with pipeline gas,
and so is unlikely to be very concerned about the impact of US LNG on that market.
Three, Cheniere's rapid expansion has come at a terrifying cost, and the company is currently
– as of fall 2016 –
overleveraged
with approximately $20 Billion in long-term debt . It is unprofitable, with interest payments
representing 60% of revenues, the living embodiment of 'bicycle economics'; the second you stop pedaling,
you crash.
For what it's worth, few great business breakthroughs have occurred without risk, and while Cheniere
is plunging ahead with what seems like recklessness, it could just as easily pay off with complete
domination of the North American export market. That's a hell of a debt load, though; not much margin
for bad news. That does expose a flaw in the American strategy, as well – wrestling control of the
European supply market from Russia would be frighteningly expensive.
No LNG carriers are currently registered under the US flag, and if the USA plans to be a serious
exporter it is going to need about
100 new LNG carriers over the next 30 years , something which is frankly not practically achievable
considering it takes about 2 years to build one, at
a cost
of about $200 Million apiece . Of course, miracles can be made to happen if you pour enough money
into them. But we've already somewhat nervously mentioned how much all this is costing – how does
the likely return on investment shape up?
Well, what the fuck? Platts comes right out and says that Russia has the option of cutting
its prices to ensure it undercuts LNG costs in order to keep its share of the European market!
"Russia clearly does have the option to undercut the US LNG price to ensure it keeps its
share of its key European markets and could flood the market with cheap gas, maximizing revenues
and cash flow at a time when producers worldwide are suffering from the impact of such low prices."
So, let me get this straight. All the attempts by the west, led as usual by Washington, to force
energy prices down and keep them low actually benefit Russia by putting the USA in an unacceptable
profit/loss loop so that it cannot afford to sell its LNG to Europe and still make money? That appears
to be pretty much how it shakes out.
"Russia, thanks to the bearish oil price environment and an enhanced export strategy from Gazprom,
increased its exports to Europe by 15% (through the Nord Stream, Yamal, and Brotherhood pipelines)
to 118 Bcm, taking back its place as Europe's largest gas supplier in the process."
Wait! I think I see a solution. All the USA needs to do is apply its global leverage to make energy
costs rise!
"But US LNG could face problems of its own – the current low prices are forcing ever growing
numbers of US producers into bankruptcy. According to a recent report by Haynes and Boone, 90
gas and oil producers in the US and Canada have filed for bankruptcy between January 2015 and
the start of August 2016."
Oh, hey; I just realized – if forcing energy prices back up were an option, how is that going
to hamstring an opponent who was already able to undercut you at the lower price, and still turn
a profit?
Platts closes out this dismal synopsis with the consolation prize that, while US LNG is less competitive
with pipeline gas given narrow Henry Hub-NBP spreads, it is coming to Europe regardless. More of
that old American can-do. It will have to be, though, on what is described as a short-run marginal
cost basis. Would you feel comfortable with that forecast if you were carrying, say, $20 Billion
in debt?
And it's not just Platts who sounds a warning; Forbes has a similar, if slightly more mocking
outlook of the situation .
"Most of this is just political posturing and noise. The U.S. is not now and nor will it be
in the near future a key resource for Europe's energy needs According to EIAs Annual Energy Outlook,
published in April, the United States remains a net importer of fuels through 2040 in a low oil
price scenario. In a high oil and gas price scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter
of liquid fuels due to increased production by 2021. A lot can happen in seven years. By then,
Exxon will likely be back to its deal with Rosneft in Russia's Arctic Circle."
As well, Forbes adds the interesting perspective that foreign sales of American gas will be a
tough sell domestically if the pressure remains on the American leadership to achieve greater energy
self-sufficiency and reduced dependence on foreign sources. This situation can only be exacerbated
by a rise in anti-American sentiment around the world, and is likely to spike if energy prices rise.
But if they stay low, American LNG exports won't make any money. If they go up, pipeline gas will
undercut LNG prices and make it noncompetitive. Jeez, we just seem to be going around in circles.
Say, did you notice that little item in there, in which the author mentions the only possible way
the USA could compete with Russia in the natural gas market in Europe would be if it had national
rights to substantial supplies of gas abroad? Did that give your memory a little tickle, and make
you think of
Burisma Holdings, and Hunter Biden ?
The Brookings Institute, for God's sake,
warned that US LNG could not compete price-wise before the first LNG cargo ever left the USA.
Given its sympathies, it seems probable it was intended as a sobering restraint meant to keep the
United States from doing something stupid that might expose it to failure and even ruin; it is much
less likely to have been an endorsement of Russia's global business practices.
As so often happens, an unhealthy fixation on taking down a largely imagined enemy results in
increased risk-taking and a totally unrealistic appraisal of the likelihood of success – it becomes
worth doing simply to be doing something. The costs in this instance have included the alienation
and infuriating of Germany, the European Union's anchor economy, and angry murmurs from the Gulf
States that Washington negotiated production cuts simply to make its own product more competitive.
All for nothing, as it happens, because a nation with surplus swing production can always undercut
your price, and the nation with the world's lowest production costs should be last on your list of
"People I Want To Start A Price War With".
If you were opposed to official Washington's swaggering, bullying modus operandi , this
whole unfolding of events probably seems pretty delicious to you. But I've saved the most delicious
for last – Trump dares not make any effort to overrule the Senate vote, or get it reframed, because
of the successful media campaign to portray him as Putin's secret agent. Any effort to mollify Germany's
fury will be seized upon by the reality-challenged Democrats as an opportunity to further discredit
the Trump government, by making it appear to be negotiating in Russia's behalf.
One should never underestimate peoples` willingness to spend vast sums of money on worthless projects.
Witness the Canadian government's recent announcement of its plans to increase defense spending
by 70%.
When the dust finally settles, the Chinese will end up on top.
I think you're probably right about that. And if it turns out to be the case, British Columbia
will turn out to be the most progressive province in Canada, with its large numbers of Chinese
citizens and its Chines-language television stations. At bottom I am mostly a peaceful guy and
I don't really care very much who rules the world so long as it doesn't impact my lifestyle.
Once I would have argued strongly for American global leadership, based on a perception that
it offered the best chance for prosperity and enlightenment for everyone, but events since have
changed my view. Now I think other countries should be left alone in terms of interference, helped
where you can lend a hand, and global leadership is an unrealistic aspiration for any country
led by humans, since human nature tends to favour self-interest.
I don't know what the Liberals think they are doing, pushing what is essentially an unachievable
Conservative platform where defense is concerned. To what end? So we can interfere more effectively
on the USA's behalf? We have a good military. There's nothing wrong with keeping it up to date
and well-supplied and trained. But a 70% increase is impractical and is only likely to incur the
wrath of the non-military portion of the electorate, since the money has to come from somewhere.
I hadn't been aware of the connection between the sanctions and LNG, so thanks for pointing that
out.
Meanwhile, I read this:
'Germany and Austria on Thursday sharply criticized the U.S. Senate's plan to add sanctions
on Russia, describing it as an illegal attempt to boost U.S. gas exports and interfere in Europe's
energy market. [ ]
"We cannot accept a threat of extraterritorial sanctions, illegal under international law,
against European companies that participate in developing European energy supplies," [German
Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel and Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern said in a joint statement].
"Europe's energy supply is Europe's business, not that of the United States of America."'
After all, many other European leaders have publicly clamored for U.S. LNG imports as a
way to ease their dependence on Gazprom.
Who? The Baltics? Thanks for that. It's mostly a rehash of the other article, but it does include
some interesting insights, and it has a little more credibility than ZeroHedge, although there's
little in that with which I can find fault and its breaking news is usually accurate.
That the EU's energy policies are completely outside the USA's remit is correct, but it's a
surprise to hear someone of Gabriel's stature actually say it. It seems the USA has decided that
forcing Germany to abandon its support for the project is worth trying. That will turn out to
be a disastrous mistake, because the business community in Germany contains some of America's
staunchest supporters, while anti-Americanism among the German population – especially its youth
– is a growing problem. This will do nothing to help it, and it most certainly is not going to
persuade Germany to order American LNG.
I urge you to digest the Platts Report in detail, at your leisure – it's illuminating, and
I'm sure you will note that Russia's LNG export capability is already far, far ahead of the USA's.
So even if pipeline gas proved only competitive with LNG, why would anyone depend on supplies
which have to cross the ocean rather than supplies that can come from Kaliningrad?
She's funny: "How can you shout about the transition to renewable, environmentally safe energy
and at the same time make plans to increase gas flows into Europe?"
Uhh, Zhenichka, Russia is part of Europe, you can shout about it if you are increasing your
energy dependence on both, and if one pipeline is simply replacing another. That's how. That was
easy.
"Five European companies are involved but for some mysterious reason, 100% of the shares belong
to Gazprom."
Because GazProm is paying $$$ for it. Zhenichka, in a Capitalist Society, those who pay for
the shares, get the shares. Did I solve that mystery for you?
"Five European companies are involved but for some mysterious reason, 100% of the shares
belong to Gazprom."
There is nothing mysterious about it; in fact, it is typical Guardian dishonesty. The Nord
Stream II Project originally included minority shareholders
as shown here . Then Poland introduced its anti-monopoly action and announced the pipeline
could not be built. The partners dropped out, and left Gazprom to take the heat alone. When Poland
failed in its bid to stop the project and it became clear the EU was all out of arrows – having
never had a defensible legal basis – the partners hopped back on, but as investors only. I daresay
they stand to make a good return on their investment even without being shareholders. Meanwhile,
American meddling is only likely to make Europeans grateful attempts to stop the pipeline failed.
I would not like to see their reaction if it ever became clear their governments had committed
them to paying higher gas prices just to spite Russia, particularly in view of the USA's limited
ability to provide reliable and constant supply.
The Guardian is just being a good American footsoldier, and trying to throw mud in the works
for Uncle Sam.
Beautiful article, and great timing Mark! I love it. This was one of the dumbest bills ever passed.
It aimed at Russia, but it's just a take down of Germany. Reminds me of a recent Russian joke:
Obama: "America is mighty! Because of us, Russia's Economy is in ruins!"
Poroshenko: "not Russia's, sir. Ukraine's."
Obama: "Who gives a shit! It's in ruins!"
Also, here's what I'm wondering – can't Russia deliver it by truck or train? Won't that still
be less expensive than delivering it by ship?
Nordstream 2 is primarily a gas pipeline project under the Baltic Sea.
The main attraction of Nordstream 2 is it avoids transit through countries where tolls and
transit fees would have to be paid, whether through land-based pipes, truck or train, and all
these expenses added to the eventual cost that would be paid by the end consumer (ie the general
public). Plus trucks and trains can be held up or subjected to attacks and gas in land-based pipelines
can be siphoned off and diverted as was being done when the gas was passing through Ukraine originally.
No such problems if the gas were being delivered through underwater pipelines though we can be
sure that Swedish naval submarines (how many of those are there – one?) will be watching them
very closely for phantom Russian subs.
Ah, I thought UCGS' original comment referred to your original post, not the one you sent at 5:58
pm yesterday.
Wouldn't transporting LNG by underground pipeline under its own pressure be a less risky and
cheaper option than sending it by train? Trains carrying LNG can only carry so much and have to
be specially adapted to transporting it. Plus they share rail networks with other trains so there
are issues like how saturated the rail networks supporting LNG rail traffic, other cargo traffic
and passenger traffic become, and the pressure this puts on drivers and maintenance of railway
tracks, and building more rail lines in and through areas where pipelines could be laid down instead.
It's possible; I'm afraid I don't know enough about it. It seems that when they speak of an LNG
'train', it refers to the liquefaction
and purification facility , not a transport vehicle. In order to transport LNG it must be
liquefied, which implies freezing it to below -161C. Naturally it must be maintained at a temperature
which guarantees its stability as a liquid, until it is appropriate to return it to its gaseous
form for use in that form. That's the purpose of the huge
container vessels on an LNG tanker – you have to get it cold and then keep it cold.
I just don't know how you would do that in a pipeline. And obviously it would be wildly impractical
for a train, I don't know what the hell I thought I was talking about. It could be done, but why?
You'd need a hundred miles of teeny little flatcar-sized container vessels to equal what you can
transport in an LNG carrier.
Your pipeline would have to originate at an LNG 'train' and terminate at another, somewhere
else, so that the liquefaction/gasification process could be practically carried out, much as
current NG pipelines use pumping stations. But you would also have to keep the LNG below -160C
all the time it was in the pipeline. That's probably physically possible, too, if expense is no
consideration, but it seems terribly impractical when NG already goes by pipeline safely at a
fraction of what it would cost to transport LNG the same way.
Ah, I see now of course you wouldn't need to transport NG in liquid form under 160C through
pipelines. To transport it by ship or train though, it must be in liquefied form, presumably because
as a liquid NG can be measured and quantified, and then exporters can work out how much they can
charge for producing and transporting LNG. Not to mention of course that transporting commodities
in gaseous form by train and ship is harder and riskier than transporting them as liquids.
As well, it needs to be liquefied in order to be compressed, to
get the volumes
you are looking for . One of those container vessels full of uncompressed NG wouldn't be much
more than a good-sized European town would need for its barbecues.
LNG achieves a higher reduction in volume than compressed natural gas (CNG) so that the
(volumetric) energy density of LNG is 2.4 times greater than that of CNG or 60 percent that of
diesel fuel. This makes LNG cost efficient to transport over long distances where pipelines do
not exist. Specially designed cryogenic sea vessels (LNG carriers) or cryogenic road tankers are
used for its transport. LNG is principally used for transporting natural gas to markets, where
it is regasified and distributed as pipeline natural gas.
That does highlight, as well, that if you can use road tankers there really is no reason you
could not use trains. But anywhere it is practical to use trains or road transport, you would
be asking yourself, "why can't I use a pipeline here?"
The US's intervention is even more pathetic than it seems.
This is not a stand alone anti-Russia bill which would signal strength from the US, but an
adjunct to the anti-I-ran sanctions bill that continues to seek to punish I-ran in the vague hope
that it will pull the plug on the cast-iron nuclear deal it has signed with international partners.
The irony there is that I-ran Air is recapitalizing with both Airbus & Boeing (also ATR),
100 odd a piece, not to mention other significant investment opportunities for western firms.
They're quite the Gordian Tits!
Not only is there the potential of the Levianthan gas field off Cyprus/Israel/whatever, brutal
dictator Azeri gas will also be arriving in (larger, but not gigantic) quantities. Not to mention
that significant buyers of LNG, like the UK, have it come straight from Qatar. Is the US prepared
to sell LNG at a discount compared to Qatar that has strategic agreements and its own fundamental
interests to be protected by the Western (European) states as well?
So if this plan seems to damage not only the USA's allies but the USA itself, then what is
its purpose? Stick it to Trump. Mire any plans to re-balance relations with Russia almost at
any cost . It's a no brainer for Democrats as they neither hold a majority in the House or
the Senate, and there seem to be enough dog whistle Republicans willing to go along with it, including
those with mental problems like John 'Insane' McCaine. Ukraine is almost peripheral except as
a convenient tool. It think the US accepts they've screwed the pooch on the Ukraine so its only
value is to be used as a festering sore on Russia's frontier. Kiev mops up the completely free
public political support whilst it is being kicked in the bollox by the same people.
"Try to put aside, for the moment, the insufferable arrogance of American meddling in Europe's
energy market, with a view to restricting its choice while – laughably – pretending it is broadening
European energy options."
"Invisible Hand of the Market" [nod, nod].
"And a big part of that was the assumption that Russia would help to finance Ukraine's transition
to a powerful western fulcrum "
At first I read it as "western furuncle". That's what it became in the end.
First Rule of the Ukraine: "Every Peremoga turns into Zrada".Want to hear about yet another
zrada ? Russia (okay – Mikhail Friedman) bought a German firm Rheinisch-Westfälisches Elektrizitätswerk
(RWE) for $5.72 blns in 2015
. Why it's important? Well, because this firm carries out the reverse gas transition to the
Ukraine, thus ensuring its [ha-ha, sorry, sorry!] "Energy Independence" which was officially
proclaimed in the same 2015 A.D.
"No LNG carriers are currently registered under the US flag, and if the USA plans to be
a serious exporter it is going to need about 100 new LNG carriers over the next 30 years, something
which is frankly not practically achievable considering it takes about 2 years to build one, at
a cost of about $200 Million apiece". Of course, miracles can be made to happen if you pour enough
money into them.
And usual stuff, said by the people who believe that the Free Market will "Get the Things Straight"
without governmental meddling. Like, Musk will invent cheap multi-use drone-rackets which will
deliver gas to the clients across the Ocean. Why not?! They believe in all kinds of stupid stuff
already!
The article is fresh breeze of actual facts and hard data – not your usual hurr-durring opinion
pieces, passed as "analytics" by the esteemed think-tankers.
Thanks very much, NS!! I read a book some time ago which used newspaper and wire reports of the
various times to thoroughly debunk most of the incidents of ships and aircraft 'disappearing without
a trace' in the Bermuda Triangle. In incidents which resulted in total losses of the crew, the
author also offered reasonable explanations for what likely happened. I have sailed through it
many times myself and observed nothing untoward, although that does not mean much considering
the amount of marine traffic which routinely does the same without incident.
Owners of LNG Carriers likewise play up how safe they are, and to the best of my knowledge
there has never been a serious accident. However, on the scale of supply the USA is suggesting
it wishes to achieve for itself, there could be no days taken off for bad weather, and carriers
would have to transit the North Atlantic in winter – which is not generally a fun place to be.
Most of my concern with the shipped method is its inherent unreliability compared with pipeline
gas.
"But Gazprom could block a lot of those cargoes by stepping up export volumes and selling them
at prices below what can be achieved by U.S. LNG. Gazprom can export pipeline gas to Europe for
$3.50 per million Btu (MMBtu) while American LNG would need prices of $4 to $5/MMbtu. Currently,
Gazprom sells gas to Europe at a price of about $5.80/MMBtu on average, but could lower the price
to beat U.S. LNG"
I do not see how the USA could begin to economically prevail over the Russians in a
"gas' war..given the above numbers.
"Of course, viewed another way, the growing U.S. export capacity – the mere existence of a
competing source of supply – should push down the price that Gazprom is able to charge, a victory
for Europe and a blow to Gazprom. Without U.S. LNG, its proponents argue, Russia would not be
forced to accept lower prices. "It's the start of the price war between U.S. LNG and pipeline
gas," said Thierry Bros, an analyst at Société Générale, according to the WSJ."
Moreover doesn't keeping a lid (cap) on what the Russians can charge for Gazprom gas ipso facto
prevent the Americans from competitively pricing their LNG product..particularly in view of the
first quote????
Either I'm a little dense today,or the American strategy here makes no sense whasoever.!!!!
The latter – the American strategy makes no sense, and its proponents are so high on can-do that
you might have to shoot them to get them down. The USA cannot supply either the volume or the
consistency of supply to snatch the gas market from Russia, and that must be evident to all but
the crazy. As usual, Washington just hopes to get itself into the mix so it will have a seat at
the table, because it cannot bear being left out of things and has long been of the opinion that
America makes its own reality. Once again, if America owned or controlled substantial gas reserves
on the continent and it were practical for the USA to run its own pipeline to Europe, it might
be in with a chance if it had sufficient supply, and it is attempts to do that that we should
be watching out for. There was speculation much earlier that control of substantial gas holdings
was exactly what Burisma Holdings and Hunter Biden were up to in Ukraine, but gas extraction is
not practical there right now and id assay results had been positive you can bet there would be
a lot more American pressure to bring the war to a close.
On that note, I noticed over at Sputnik yesterday that Turchynov was pressuring Poroshenko
to bag the ATO and turn it into a full-press military operation, which is just what recent reports
said they did not dare to do in case the Ukrainian Army loses. The same report said Poroshenko
is about to sign legislation which orders by decree that Donbas resume its place as part of Ukraine.
If they say "Pound sand up your ass" as we know they will, Poroshenko may have little alternative
to throwing everything he has at them. Of course, I can't find it now; I knew I should have drawn
attention to it when I saw it.
I assume the (shipped) American LNG would have to be regasified at a european import terminal.
Consulting page six at the link, is it not problematic to then transport the regasified lng product
to its (receiving) nation destination. The whole scheme smacks of going around the well to get
an expensive cup of water!!!!!
http://documents.jdsupra.com/c6c4403f-ad9f-4740-b184-9fc1f88550ab.pdf
The liquid LNG can only be unloaded at an LNG terminal, and so far as I am aware a feature of
them is that they are connected to a gas hub, so that they can regasify the product directly into
the system.
What I do not understand is why Russians can't increase natural gas consumption dramatically and
need to export that much: is it so difficult to build several large chemical plants, increase
usage in city transport as less polluting fuel to 100%, promote dual fuel private cars, etc.
In this case they can export saved oil instead using regular tankers which is much simpler
then LNG.
I think the current suppression of oil prices by Wall Street (and the new US method of production
using along with production of shale oil a parallel production stream of junk bonds which will
never be repaid) can't last forever. "Break even" oil price for most shale wells is probably over
$60 per barrel. If not $80.
Also without capital investment the annual decline of conventional fields is around 5% a year
(most of those fields are really old). Which means approximately 5 million barrels per day are
taken off the market automatically each year (no OPEC action is needed), if zero capital investment
are done.
Of course Sechin is IMHO a corrupt player here, who cares mostly about his own pocketbook (and
stupidly increased investment just before the crash, which later required bailout of the company
by the government), but still Russian government has the means to enforce its will even on rogue
players.
Denmark's government is proposing amending legislation to allow it to ban pipeline projects
on the grounds of foreign and security policy, due to concerns raised by Russian efforts
to build a disputed gas pipeline through Danish waters.
"We want to have the possibility to say yes or no from a perspective of security
and foreign policy," the minister of energy and climate, Lars Christian Lilleholt, told
Reuters, adding that it was currently only possible to veto such projects on the grounds
of environmental concerns .
Denmark and Sweden earlier this year requested that the European Commission intervene
in Nord Stream 2 before the two states agree on permits for the pipeline to pass through
their waters. EU diplomats said there was little scope for either nation to block the plan.
The current regulatory framework does not allow Denmark to say "no" to the construction
of transit pipelines in territorial waters on the basis of foreign policy considerations,
the ministry said in a statement .
EU sources have said the Commission, sensing that there may ultimately be no legal basis
to block approval of Nord Stream 2, is delaying it as long as possible .
Denmark's right-wing minority government would now negotiate with other parties to
win support for the proposal.
####
' sensing that there may ultimately be no legal basis to block approval..' – Well that's
quite a polishing of the EU turd when we
know
that the EU has no legal way to block
the pipeline, sic the opinion of the EU's own Legal Service. How delicate the EU stuffed
suits are that they cannot just admit it outright. Oh, but that would be a propaganda victory
for Russia. They should be grateful because if they had blocked it, it would have been a
very clear message that the EU's
Rule of Law
which it proudly pronounces around the
world is barely a fig leaf that is dropped as the slightest political pressure. It's a joke
already, but with a project as big as . as it has done with much political decisions
While they're creating magic out of whole cloth, why not a law that anyone who discovers
significant gas deposits anywhere must immediately hand them over to the EU for their exclusive
use and disbursement? Or a law that orders massive new gas deposits be discovered in Denmark?
I suspect that the government is having a slow news day and as there is absolutely no consequence
to Russophobia as it is essentially a free gift that keeps on giving when and wherever is
needed, i.e. to distract from domestic politics.
The Whole G7 'How can we f/k up Russia further' conveniently segues with the improvement
of Russia's economy and the continued failure of G7 sanctions against Russia. I'm not really
sure what else they can do without shooting themselves in the foot.
There's already been some whinging that the West's actions have only further driven it
in to China's arms, so WTF? I guess they have to come up with something that looks tough,
but isn't. After all, they will need to put out a key statement signed by them all. IN short,
'This spade is far too small. Let's go and get another one!'.
"... US and EU sanctions only affect Russian offshore projects in the Arctic and development of Russia's tight oil. If sanctions are lifted, projects with foreign participation in these two areas will be able to produce meaningful quantities of oil not before 2025. But these volumes will not be sufficient to flood the market. ..."
"... Russia is participating in OPEC-non-OPEC supply cuts and certainly is not interested in flooding the market and exerting a downward pressure on prices. ..."
"... The only Russia's offshore Arctic project is Prirazlomnoye field developed by Gazpromneft without foreign participation (already producing oil). ..."
"... In general, even if there were no sanctions, Arctic projects would be developed relatively slowly, due to high costs and environmental issues. Russia's long-term energy program anticipates more or less meaningful volumes of oil production in the Arctic offshore only in the 2030s. ..."
"... Everything in that stuff you wrote is baloney. Russia's Black Sea exports go through Novorossysk and Tuapse. There isn't an oil pipeline going to Crimea. Furthermore, putting an oil loading port in Crimea is nutty (because the oil comes from the East and it makes much more sense to load as far to the East as possible). There used to be some oil loaded in Odessa, but that was never a big deal. ..."
"... Regarding the Exxon deal, that's also baloney. But I don't feel like trying to explain the basics to somebody who picks up information from Facebook. ..."
"... From all that I've read, I would conclude that a "flood of oil" out of Russia is about as likely as a "flood of new fracked oil from shales in the United States, not yet drilled." That is, it's rather low on the probability meter. ..."
"... Why target Russia? Is it because of an impending Seneca cliff in Saudi Arabia? They were supposed to peak 10 years ago but water and nitrogen injections kept them afloat. Now? ..."
"... Thus, what the United States is playing at here is trying to install a different "regime" in Russia. That being, one that Vladimir Putin does not control or have any influence over. This is easier said than done and the United States knows this. But the stakes are quite a bit higher than controlling the dwindling oil supply in the Middle East. Russia is obviously in control of most of the world's remaining oil reserves. The United States needs a puppet regime in Russia to have access to that oil without paying the correct market price for it. ..."
"... At some point, this gambit will fail. Russia is not the Middle East. A war with Russia cannot be won or cease-fired out of. Nor can a United States-backed "regime change" succeed over there. This is not the 1990s Russia of Boris Yeltsin. The United States, however, cannot come clean with the truth to the American people. The reason is because if the American people knew the truth, they'd never sleep nights anymore. The truth is this: Our entire economic system is based on petroleum and low-cost petroleum at that. But the actual nightmare is that our entire agricultural system is based on cheap oil." ..."
"Exxon Mobil, under Rex Tillerson, brokered a deal with Russia in 2013 to lease over 60 million
acres of Russian land to pump oil out of (which is five times as much land as they lease in the
United States), but all that Russian oil would go through pipelines in the Ukraine, who heavily
tax the proceeds, and Ukraine was applying for admission into NATO at the time.
Putin subsequently invaded Ukraine in 2014, secured the routes to export the oil tax-free by
sea, and took control of the port where their Black Sea Naval Fleet is based, by taking the Crimean
peninsula from Ukraine by force. This was Hitler style imperialism that broke every international
law in the free world.
After Obama sanctioned Russia for the invasion, Exxon Mobil could only pump oil from approximately
3 of those 60+ million acres. But now Rex Tillerson is soon to be our Secretary of State, and
as of today, there's information circulating that Donald Trump will likely unilaterally remove
all sanctions against Russia in the coming days or weeks.
The Russian government's oil company, Rosneft, will make half a trillion (500 Billion) dollars
from that much untapped oil, all pumped tax-free through Crimea, stolen from Ukraine, now owned
by Russia. Putin may have subverted our government just for this deal to go through."
______
Now, a flood of oil on the market from Russia would likely keep US oil prices down, thus hurting
US drillers right?
If one is conspiracy-minded, could that be part of the deal, too? Russia uses low oil prices
to take down US oil production, and then tries assert itself as one of the countries left standing.
In about 1780, Catherine the Great and the Ottoman Empire agreed that the Crimea was a part of
Russia. [Yes, there was conflict for years prior (as with any other piece of land in the world).]
In 1954, in honor of the 300th Anniversary of the Republic of Ukraine being a part of Russia,
Nikita Krushchev "gave" the governance of the Crimea to the Republic of Ukraine. It was not constitutional
under the Russian constitution. The UN said nothing about it, nor any other international law
body. Krushchev later trumped up an approval without even a quorum.
So the Republic of Ukraine seceded from Russia and took the Crimea with it. In the US, when
states (republics) seceded [having been states for much less than 100 years, let alone over 300
years] the rest of the states killed as many people as they could until they "agreed to rejoin
the union." People might not like it, but the vast majority of people living in the Crimea had
ties to mother Russia, and they voted to go back to being governed by Russia. So, Putin accepted.
And please, let's not get into an argument about the fairness of elections, unless your candidate
wins.
So, what would we do if Obama gave South Carolina to Florida, and then Florida seceded. I guess
that the rest of the states would just say "shucks, we lost South Carolina too." Especially if
South Carolina had the only warm water port in the US [the Crimea has the only warm water port
in Russia]. The rest of the ports are in the North Sea, etc. And, yes, that is a critical military
point.
"This was Hitler style imperialism that broke every international law in the free world." That
is a pathetic joke! Okay – let's let the US South secede again, since the Cival War broke every
international law in the free world and was exactly the same as Hitler's imperialism.
Just one clarification: the ports in Crimea are not the only warm water ports in Russia.
Russia has several other ports in the Black Sea and Azov Sea.
Other ports are in the Baltic Sea, Arctic seas and the Pacific; not in the North Sea
Perhaps I am wrong, but are those other ports large enough and deep enough for military use [which
I failed to state clearly]? I beleive that Russia still operated their huge military port in the
Crimea even after the Ukraine seceded and prior to Russia taking back the Crimea.
Sevastopol, the largest port in Crimea, was founded by Catherine the Great as Russia's main military
port in the Black Sea.
It had special status when Crimea was part of the Soviet Ukraine, and also when Ukraine became
independent. Russia had a long-term arrangement with Ukraine for using Sevastopol.
Russia also has a large military port in Novorossiisk (Russian part of Caucasus); but you are
right, Sevastopol is deeper, bigger and more convenient.
Rurik set up rule in Novgorod, giving more provincial towns to his brothers. There is some
ambiguity even in the Primary Chronicle about the specifics of the story, "hence their paradoxical
statement 'the people of Novgorod are of Varangian stock, for formerly they were Slovenes.'" However,
archaeological evidence such as "Frankish swords, a sword chape and a tortoiseshell brooch" in
the area suggest that there was, in fact, a Scandinavian population during the tenth century at
the latest.[3] The "Rurikid Dynasty DNA Project" of FamilyTreeDNA commercial genetic genealogy
company reports that Y-DNA testing of the descendants of Rurikids suggests their non-Slavic origin.
Kiev was the Capital of Russia when Moscow was still a hunting camp
It's your choice to use Facebook as the main source of information on the oil and gas industry,
but please don't repost this BS on the oil-dedicated thread.
Exxon Mobil didn't lease any land in Russia. It is the operator of the Sakhalin-1 project in
Russia' Far East (very far from Ukraine); and oil produced from this project is exported by sea
(Pacific ocean).
Exxon's JV with Rosneft has also found an oil field in Kara Sea (Russian Arctic), but this
project was suspended due to the sanctions.
In the past Russia was exporting a small part of its oil by the "Druzhba" ("Friendship") pipeline
through Ukraine and was paying normal transporation fee, not taxes.
Now all Russian oil is exported via Russian oil terminals near Novorossiisk (Black Sea) and
Ust-Luga and Primorsk (on the Baltic Sea). New transporation routes include East-Siberia – Pacific
Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline linking Russian oil fields in Siberia with the ports on Pacific Ocean
and with China's Daking; as well as oil terminals in the Arctic (Varandey).
If US sanctions on Russia are lifted, Rosneft and Exxon will be able to develop their joint
project in the Artcic, but oil found there certainly is not worth "half a trillion (500 Billion)
dollars', and cannot seriously change the global supply-demand balance.
clueless gave you a good answer on Crimea
BTW, 1) there is no oil terminal in Crimea;
2) Russian oil is taxed in Russia
"It's your choice to use Facebook as the main source of information on the oil and gas industry,
but please don't repost this BS on the oil-dedicated thread."
I never use Facebook as a source of information on the oil and gas industry. The topic never
comes up among my Facebook friends or my news sources on Facebook. When I want gas and oil info,
I use Google to look at legitimate news sources from industry observers.
I just wanted some people's thoughts on that. Your reaction actually tells me a lot about how
you think about it.
We've had quite a few discussions here about how politics, both domestic and international,
shapes oil production, so I was just inquiring about any insight. I'm rather surprised that you
are telling me not to even post a question on the subject. Touchy, maybe?
The relationship between Trump and Russia has triggered some questions, not just among Democrats,
but also the GOP. And some people are wondering if there is some tie in about oil.
"some people are wondering if there is some tie in about oil."
The only "tie in" is Exxon's frozen investments in the Pobeda (Victory) field in the Kara Sea.
But that's no secret; you can find information on this project on Exxon's and Rosneft's websites
and in international business media.
The Sakhalin-1 project is not covered by the sanctions and is being successfully developed.
"Will a flood of Russian oil affect US oil prices?"
US and EU sanctions only affect Russian offshore projects in the Arctic and development of
Russia's tight oil. If sanctions are lifted, projects with foreign participation in these two
areas will be able to produce meaningful quantities of oil not before 2025. But these volumes
will not be sufficient to flood the market.
Russia is participating in OPEC-non-OPEC supply cuts and certainly is not interested in flooding
the market and exerting a downward pressure on prices.
I think Exxon could re-enter the project if the sanctions are lifted. If sanctions are not lifted
for several years, Rosneft will likely develop this field independently, but it would take more
time as Rosneft lacks experience in offshore projects.
The only Russia's offshore Arctic project is Prirazlomnoye field developed by Gazpromneft without
foreign participation (already producing oil).
In general, even if there were no sanctions, Arctic projects would be developed relatively
slowly, due to high costs and environmental issues. Russia's long-term energy program anticipates
more or less meaningful volumes of oil production in the Arctic offshore only in the 2030s.
"Exxon Mobil, under Rex Tillerson, brokered a deal with Russia in 2013 to lease over 60 million
acres of Russian land to pump oil out of (which is five times as much land as they lease in the
United States), but all that Russian oil would go through pipelines in the Ukraine"
Almost all pipelines through Ukraine are nat gas. Not oil. There is some minor oil flow. "All"
is just profoundly absurd.
Russia's oil output is going to Asia and northern Europe via Transneft lines to Poland and
Belarus. Not through Ukraine. Haven't looked for where those Exxon leases are, but I'm pretty
sure that's the Rosneft joint venture up around the Arctic.
Nowhere near Ukraine. This is all just completely wrong.
FedBook, er I mean Facebook, is a ghetto of sentimentality. I suggest deleting from it. I joined
Facebook once for a very short time and the only thing I learnt from it was that most of my friends
are idiots.
Everything in that stuff you wrote is baloney. Russia's Black Sea exports go through Novorossysk
and Tuapse. There isn't an oil pipeline going to Crimea. Furthermore, putting an oil loading port
in Crimea is nutty (because the oil comes from the East and it makes much more sense to load as
far to the East as possible). There used to be some oil loaded in Odessa, but that was never a
big deal.
Regarding the Exxon deal, that's also baloney. But I don't feel like trying to explain the
basics to somebody who picks up information from Facebook.
From all that I've read, I would conclude that a "flood of oil" out of Russia is about as likely
as a "flood of new fracked oil from shales in the United States, not yet drilled." That is, it's
rather low on the probability meter.
Again from what I've read (numerous sources) the Russian oil fields are being extracted just
about as heavily as they can be at this time, as are the Saudi fields, again relying on a number
of different sources.
Without getting too "tinfoil-hatty" I'd say most of the stories about the global oil markets
which promise big bursts of production from (heretofore undisclosed) big new oil fields are in
the category of "fake news." These stories serve to boost U.S. consumer confidence and U.S. automobile
and light truck sales, but contradict what people in the industry (such as Art Berman, Tadeusz
Patzek et al.) are saying about future supply.
Why target Russia? Is it because of an impending Seneca cliff in Saudi Arabia? They were supposed
to peak 10 years ago but water and nitrogen injections kept them afloat. Now?
"I've gotten a couple emails from people who have asked me what I think the "end game" is in
regards to Russia. And, indeed, the government is going into extra innings with this whole Russia
vilification project. This is worse than someone who has held on to a grudge for years. The government
does that, too, but they haven't done it over ideology (as with Cuba) for quite some time now.
What, then, is the motive?
The motive is perfectly clear: Oil. You see, Russia has already eclipsed Saudi Arabia as the
world's biggest oil producer. This means the big Saudi oil fields are drying up. And the government
knows that, but they can't tell us this because it'll create a panic. One would think this would
motivate the United States to get cozier with Russia. However, what the United States government
fears is that if we do that, Russia will twig to the motive for it, and realize it has the United
States over a barrel. An oil barrel. At which point the price goes up. Not to mention extracting
concessions in the global sphere of influence.
Thus, what the United States is playing at here is trying to install a different "regime" in
Russia. That being, one that Vladimir Putin does not control or have any influence over. This
is easier said than done and the United States knows this. But the stakes are quite a bit higher
than controlling the dwindling oil supply in the Middle East. Russia is obviously in control of
most of the world's remaining oil reserves. The United States needs a puppet regime in Russia
to have access to that oil without paying the correct market price for it.
At some point, this gambit will fail. Russia is not the Middle East. A war with Russia cannot
be won or cease-fired out of. Nor can a United States-backed "regime change" succeed over there.
This is not the 1990s Russia of Boris Yeltsin. The United States, however, cannot come clean with
the truth to the American people. The reason is because if the American people knew the truth,
they'd never sleep nights anymore. The truth is this: Our entire economic system is based on petroleum
and low-cost petroleum at that. But the actual nightmare is that our entire agricultural system
is based on cheap oil."
Saudi has had water injection for much longer than ten years on pretty well all it's fields and
I don't think they are using nitrogen injection anywhere, there may be some small CO2 EOR projects
though. Their production has been maintained by developing three old, heavy oil fields that were
mostly dormant (Manifa, Khurais and Shaybah), by using a lot of in-fill drilling and intelligent
wells (where water breakthrough can be controlled) on maturing fields and by extensively redeveloping
offshore fields with new wellhead platforms and adding artificial lift. I don't think their fields
are anywhere near drying up; they may be hitting some limits in surface facilities – probably
to do with water injection or treatment of produced water which means they have to continually
choke back so as not to damage the reservoirs.
"... Hello …According to Reuters , the European Union on Friday lifted limits on Gazprom's use of a link from its offshore Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, allowing Russia to pump more gas to Europe and bypass its usual routes via Ukraine. ..."
Hello …According to
Reuters , the European Union on Friday lifted limits on Gazprom's use of a link from its offshore
Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, allowing Russia to pump more gas to Europe and bypass its usual
routes via Ukraine.
"... The Russian-Turkish plan to pipe Russian gas through Turkey and then on to Macedonia and thence into southern Europe has long been opposed by the West, which is seeking to block the Russians at every turn. Now the Western powers have found an effective way to stop it: by overthrowing the pro-Russian government of Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski . ..."
"... Speaking of which: the government of President Petro Poroshenko is leading the country into complete financial insolvency and veritable martial law. ..."
"... which makes it a crime to criticize the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) that fought on the side of the Germans during World War II. ..."
The
Russian-Turkish plan to pipe Russian gas
through Turkey and then on to Macedonia and thence into southern Europe has long been opposed
by the West, which is
seeking
to block the Russians at every turn. Now the Western powers have found an effective way to stop
it: by overthrowing the pro-Russian government of Macedonian Prime Minister
Nikola Gruevski.
The original plan was for the pipeline to go through Bulgaria, but
Western pressure on the government there nixed that and so the
alternative was to pipe the gas through Macedonia and Greece. With the Greeks uninterested in
taking dictation from the EU – and relatively impervious, at the moment, to Western-sponsored regime
change – the Macedonians were deemed to be the weak link in the pro-Russian chain. That was the cue
for the perpetually aggrieved Albanians to play their historic role as the West's willing proxies.
After a long period of dormancy, suddenly the "National
Liberation Army" (NLA) of separatist Albanians rose up, commandeering police stations in Kumanovo
and a nearby village earlier this month. A 16-hour gun battle ensued, with 8 Macedonian police and
14 terrorists killed in the fighting. The NLA, which
reportedly received
vital assistance from Western powers during the 2001 insurgency, claimed responsibility for the
attacks.
Simultaneously, the opposition Social Democratic Union party (SDSM)
– formerly the ruling League of Communists under the Stalinist Tito regime – called for mass demonstrations
over a series of recent government scandals. SDSM has
lost the last three elections, deemed "fair" by the OCSE, with Gruevski's conservative VMRO-DPMNE
(Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity)
enjoying a comfortable majority in parliament. But that doesn't matter to the "pro-democracy" regime-changers:
SDSM leader Zoran Zaev
declared "This will not be a protest where we gather, express discontent and go home. We will
stay until Gruevski quits."
Macedonia has a long history of manipulation at the hands of the NATO powers, who nurtured the
Muslim-Kosovar insurgency to impose their will on the components of the former Yugoslavia. As in
Kosovo, the Albanians of Macedonia were willing pawns of the West, carrying out terrorist attacks
on civilians in pursuit of their goal of a "Greater Albania."
During the 2001 Albanian insurgency, an outgrowth of the Kosovo war, the EU/US used the NLA as
a battering ram against the Slavic authorities. The NLA was never an authentic indigenous force,
but actually
an arm of the US-armed-and-trained "Kosovo Liberation Army," which now rules over the gangster
state of Kosovo, crime capital of Europe. A "peace accord," the Ohrid Agreement, was brokered by
the West, which kept the NLA essentially intact, albeit formally "dissolved," while the Macedonian
government was blackmailed into submission. I wrote about it at the time,
here
and here.
Follow that last link to read about the George Soros connection. Soros was originally a big booster
of Macedonia, handing them a
$25 million aid package and holding the country up as a model of multiculturalism. However, the
Macedonians soon turned against him when he sided with the Albanians in their demands for government-subsidized
Albanian-language universities and ethnic quotas for government jobs. When he told them to change
the name of the country to "Slavomakejonija," they told him to take a walk. Soros, a longtime promoter
of Albanian separatism – he played sugar daddy to a multitude of front groups that promoted the Kosovo
war – is now getting his revenge.
Prime Minister Gruevski, for his part, charges that the sudden uptick in ethnic violence and political
turmoil is the work of Western "NGOs" and intelligence agencies (or do I repeat myself?) with the
latter playing a key role in releasing
recordings of phone conversations incriminating several top government officials. A not-so-implausible
scenario, given what happened
in neighboring Ukraine.
Speaking of which: the government of President Petro Poroshenko is leading the country into
complete financial insolvency and veritable martial law. Aid money from the West is going into
the prosecution of the ongoing civil war, and the country has already
defaulted on its huge debt in all but the formal sense. Opposition politicians and journalists
are routinely murdered and their deaths reported as "suicides," while it is now illegal to describe
the ongoing conflict with the eastern provinces as anything but a "Russian invasion." Journalists
who contradict the official view are imprisoned: Ruslan Kotsaba, whose arrest I reported on in this
space, is still being held, his
"trial" a farce that no Western journalist has seen fit to report on. Kotsaba's "crime"? Making
a video in which he denounced the war and called on his fellow Ukrainians to resist being conscripted
into the military. Antiwar activists throughout the country have been rounded up and imprisoned.
Any journalist connected to a Russian media outlet has been arrested.
Yes, these are the "European values" Ukraine is now putting into practice. Adding ignominy to
outrage, a law was recently passed – in spite of
this Reuters piece urging Poroshenko to veto it – which makes it a crime to criticize the
Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) that fought on the
side of the Germans during World War II. As Ha'aretzreports, a group of 40 historians
from major Western academic institutions issued an open letter protesting this outrage:
"Not only would it be a crime to question the legitimacy of an organization (UPA) that slaughtered
tens of thousands of Poles in one of the most heinous acts of ethnic cleansing in the history
of Ukraine, but also it would exempt from criticism the OUN, one of the most extreme political
groups in Western Ukraine between the wars, and one which collaborated with Nazi Germany at the
outset of the Soviet invasion in 1941. It also took part in anti-Jewish pogroms in Ukraine and,
in the case of the Melnyk faction, remained allied with the occupation regime throughout the war."
Ukraine is showing its true colors, which I identified
last year, to the point where even the usually compliant Western media is forced to admit the
truth.
It is pretty interesting and educational to read such articles one year after
they are published.
Notable quotes:
"... Russia is already in dire straits. The economy has contracted by 4.9pc over the past year and the downturn is certain to drag on as oil prices crumble after a tentative rally. Half of Russia's tax income comes from oil and gas. ..."
"... Core inflation is running at 16.7pc and real incomes have fallen by 8.4pc over the past year, a far deeper cut to living standards than occurred following the Lehman crisis. ..."
"... This man "forecasted" Russia's demise last year. He has to show that that forecast is still liable to happen ..."
"... What Colby said is palpably true. That is why we don't hear real news and instead we are bombarded with news about their "celebs" ..."
"... He should know. And certainly, Western media coverage of the Ukraine crisis demonstrated to many millions of people in the West that major Western media is almost all controlled by the US neocons. Anyone with half a brain can see that - but clearly not you. ..."
"... Russia is not interested in invading anyone. The US has tried to force Russia to invade Ukraine in an iraq style trap but it didn't work. So they had to invent an invasion, the first in living memory without a single satellite, video or photo image of any air campaign, heavy armour, uniformed soldiers, testimony from friends & family of servicemen they could pay to get a statement, not even a mobile photo of a Russian sitting on a tank. ..."
"... As the merkins tell us a devalued dollar is your problem.. the devalued rouble is the EUs problem! ..."
"... So the political sanctions are bankrupting Russia because they dared to challenge EU expansion. Result millions of poor Russians will start to flow West and the UK will have another flood of Eastern Europeans. But at least we showed them our politicians are tough. ..."
"... Spelling it out for Russia (or Britain) that would mean giving up Byzantine based ambitions and prospering through alliances with the Muslim Nation or Countries, including Turkey. In the short term such a move would quell internal dissent of the 11m immigrants in Russia, reduce unsustainable security expenditure with its central Asian neighbours, open and expand market for Russian goods in the Middle East, Far East and North Africa, and eventually form and provide a military-commercial -political alliance (like NATO) for the Muslim nations with Russia (with partner strength based upon what is mostly commercial placed on the table (see the gist in the Vienna Agreement between P5+1 and Iran). ..."
"... The formation of such an alliance would trump Russia's (or Britain's) opponents ambitions and bring prosperity. ..."
"... Propaganda. Laughable coming from the UK hack when the UK has un-payable debt and Russia has little external debt plus we have no Gold and Russia has probably 20,000 tonnes. NATO surrounds Russia yet they are the aggressors. ..."
"... In the end, Ambrose is too ideological to be credible on the issue. Sure, Russia has couple lean years ahead, but it will come out of this ordeal stronger, not weaker. There are already reports of mini boomlets gathering steam under the surface. ..."
Russia is already in dire straits. The economy has contracted by 4.9pc
over the past year and the downturn is certain to drag on as oil prices crumble
after a tentative rally. Half of Russia's tax income comes from oil and gas.
Core inflation is running at 16.7pc and real incomes have fallen by 8.4pc
over the past year, a far deeper cut to living standards than occurred following
the Lehman crisis. This time there is no recovery in sight as Western sanctions
remain in place and US shale production limits any rebound in global oil prices.
"We've seen the full impact of the crisis in the second quarter. It is
now hitting light industry and manufacturing," said Dmitri Petrov from Nomura.
"Russia is going to be in a very difficult fiscal situation by 2017," said
Lubomir Mitov from Unicredit. "By the end of next year there won't be any money
left in the oil reserve fund and there is a humongous deficit in the pension
fund. They are running a budget deficit of 3.7pc of GDP but without developed
capital markets Russia can't really afford to run a deficit at all."
A report by the Higher School of Economics in Moscow warned that a quarter
of Russia's 83 regions are effectively in default as they struggle to cope with
salary increases and welfare costs dumped on them by President Vladimir Putin
before his election in 2012. "The regions in the far east are basically bankrupt,"
said Mr Mitov.
Russian companies have to refinance $86bn in foreign currency debt in the
second half of this year. They cannot easily roll this over since the country
is still cut off from global capital markets, so they must rely on swap funding
from the central bank.
Dave Hanson
For once, Flimflambrose paints a fairly accurate picture. His formula
is to take a few facts and stretch them to their illogical conclusion to
create a story that sells subscriptions to the Telegraph. Sort of like the
National Enquirer. He does that well. He only mentions the other side of
the story in a sentence or two, usually at the end of his column. The scary
headline at the top comes true perhaps one in a thousand times, just enough
to keep readers from totally dismissing him as a fruitcake. Not yellow journalism.
Clever journalism.
steph borne •
jezzam steph borne •a day ago
''Under Putin Russia has progressed from a respectable rank 60 on the
transparency international corruption index to an appalling rank 140. It
is now one of the most corrupt countries in the world, entirely due to Putin.''
http://www.theguardian.com/wor...
.
jezzam is using the Corruption Perceptions Index as fact?
but it is ''Perceptions''???
''The CPI measures perception of corruption due to the difficulty of measuring
absolute levels of corruption.[8]'' Wiki
Just more nonsense from Jezzam
soton
my wife is russian, she speak's to her mother on the phone every day,
from what she tell's me nothing has changed economically for the "average
joe" no doubt some of the abramovich types have seen the value of their
properties plunge
Rosbif2
So if Russia is financially sinking below the waves, how come AEP in
other articles claimed that Russia could buy themselves into Greece and
menace Europe?
It seems like Greece & Russia are two drowning men who would grab onto each
other & drown even faster
AEP seems to lack "joined up thinking" in his articles
giltedged
This man "forecasted" Russia's demise last year. He has to show that
that forecast is still liable to happen
What Colby said is palpably true. That is why we don't hear real
news and instead we are bombarded with news about their "celebs"
Real news to show that a new world economy is being built totally outside
the control of US Neocons and Globalists, that the world is now multi-polar,
that for example this journalist's capital city, London, now has officially
a majority of the population not merely non-British in origin, but non-European,
that his own country survives because of London property sales
Richard N
And isn't AEP rubbing his hands with glee at this supposedly desperate
situation of Russia!
Colby, the ex-boss of the CIA, said in retirement that there is no journalist
of consequence or influence in the Western media that the CIA 'does not
own'.
I often find myself remembering that, when I read Ambrose pumping out
the US neocon / CIA propaganda standard lines about 'Russian aggression'
in Ukraine, and so on - choosing to ignore the fact that Russia's action
in Crimea was in direct response and reaction to the US Neocons' coup in
Ukraine, which overthrew an elected government in a sovereign state, to
replace it with the current US puppet regime in Kiev.
Of course, this collapse of oil and gas prices are no accident at all
- but are part of America's full-scale economic war against Russia, aiming
to get Putin overthrown, and replaced by someone controlled by the US Globalists,
leaving then
China as the only major power centre in the world outside the Globalists'
control.
Richard N > jezzam • a day ago
If you bothered to read what I wrote carefully, you would see that, with
reference to journalists, I was simply repeating what ex-head of the CIA
Mr. Colby said.
He should know. And certainly, Western media coverage of the Ukraine
crisis demonstrated to many millions of people in the West that major Western
media is almost all controlled by the US neocons. Anyone with half a brain
can see that - but clearly not you.
steph borne
''Russian bear will roar once more, says World Bank''
01 Jun 2015
''Russia economy forecast to grow by 0.7pc next year, reversing negative
growth
forecast''
Carried on to the absurd extreme at which all the dollars are held outside
of America, the US simply prints more money thus devaluing it's currency
and favoring exports (which are then cheaper to produce and cheaper buy)
people giving their currency to the US in return for goods and services
and restoring economic balance.
I can understand that Russia doesn't have much experience with the 'boom
and bust' cycles of market economies. They've had less than 20 years experience
at it.
Did you know that in the 19th century China's trade surplus with Europe
was so vast that Europe almost went bankrupt and ran out of precious metals
buying Chinese goods, surely by your thinking it was truly a golden age
of eastern supremacy, western failure. Ask any Chinese person what the 19th
century means to them, you might be surprised.
steph borne > Halou
Shame you can't provide a link or two to back up your thoughts on trade
surpluses.. altho I know amongst bankrupt countries they tell you that money/assets
leaving the country is a good thing....
Strange that the Germans don't agree --
''Germany recorded a trade surplus of 19600 EUR Million in May of 2015.
Balance ...reaching an all time high of 23468.80 EUR Million in July of
2014...'' http://www.tradingeconomics.co...
Obviously another country heading for financial self-destruction
steph borne
02 Oct 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new... 02 Oct 2014
Russias-economy-is-being-hit-hard-by-sanctions.html
01 Sept 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new... 01 Sept 2014 Cameron-we-will-permanently-damage-Russias-economy.html
cameron says.??? Aha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha
29 Dec 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin... 29 Dec 2014 /Recession-looms-for-Russia-as-economy-shrinks-for-first-time-since-2009.html
24 Nov 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin... 24 Nov 2014 Russia-faces-recession-as-oil-crash-and-sanctions-cost-economy-90bn.html
22 Dec 2014 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin... 22 Dec 2014 Russia-starts-bailing-out-banks-as-economy-faces-full-blown-economic-crisis.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin... 29 Apr 2015
Ukraines-conflict-with-Russia-leaves-economy-in-ruins.htm
.
Still going!!!
Graham Milne
Russia has physical assets (oil, minerals and so on); we don't. It is
the UK which is toast, not Russia.
billsimpson > Graham Milne
Russia is way too big & resource rich to ever be total toast. And the
people are educated, even if they do drink a lot. But they could get a bit
hungry in another economic collapse. All the nukes they have is the real
problem. Those need to be kept secure, should another revolution occur,
or the country break apart after an economic collapse.
The US & Canada would never sit back and watch the UK melt down. Witness
the Five Eyes communal global spying system.
Electrify all the rail system that you can, so people can still get around
on less oil. Some oil is essential for growing and transporting food.
Sal20111
Russia can't just blame it on sanctions, or price wars in oil and gas.
They have not reinvested the proceeds of their prodigous fossil fuel sales
smartly and neither have they diversified quickly enough - the gas sales
to China was an afterthought after Ukraine.
Putin cracked down on some of the oligarchs but not all - national wealth
has clearly been sucked out by a few. Nepotism and favouritism seem to be
rife. They should have learnt the lesson from their communist history not
to concentrate power in state contriolled organisations. Not sure whether
there is much of a small to medium business culture.
With the amount of natural resources it has, and a well educated public,
particularly in math and technical skills, Russia should be doing much better.
rob22
Russia is not interested in invading anyone. The US has tried to
force Russia to invade Ukraine in an iraq style trap but it didn't work.
So they had to invent an invasion, the first in living memory without a
single satellite, video or photo image of any air campaign, heavy armour,
uniformed soldiers, testimony from friends & family of servicemen they could
pay to get a statement, not even a mobile photo of a Russian sitting on
a tank.
Russia is too busy building up an independent agriculture and import
substitution, not to mention creating economic and trade links with its
Eurasian neighbours like China & India via the silk road, BRICS, Eurasian
Ecconomic Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
A total nightmare for the US which once hoped to divide & dominate the
region (see new American century doc)
Putin enjoys about 85% approval ratings (independent foreign stats) because
it knows to surrender to the US means a return to the 90`s where the nations
oil revenue went to wall st and everything else
If things get bad they`ll just devalue the ruble, get paid in dollars
and spend in rubles.
This is why most Russians are willing to dig in and play the long game.
Londonmaxwell
Over the top with Ambrose, as usual. Words like "depression", "crisis",
"plummet", and "shrivels"; and these only in the first two paragraphs! Moscow
looks absolutely normal to me: traffic jams, packed malls and restaurants,
crowded airports and train stations. Unemployment is low, inflation is tolerable.
Ambrose misses some key points.
First, if Gazprom's revenues fell from $146bn to $106bn, then this
implies (drumroll) a revenue increase from RUB 5.1 trillion to RUB 5.8
trillion. Since Gazprom/Lukoil/Rosneft et al have USD revenues but RUB
expenses, they are all doing quite nicely, as is the Russian treasury.
Second, while Russian companies do have foreign debt to pay back,
I suspect much of this "debt" is owed to (drumroll) Russian-controlled
companies in BVI, Cyprus, Luxie, Swissie, and the other usual suspects.
Third, if the oil price declines more in 2015, the Kremlin will simply
let the ruble slide, and the biggest losers will again be (drumroll)
European exporters.
Russia's present situation is not glorious, but it is not as precarious
as Ambrose portrays it to be. Be wary of writing off Russia. The great game
is just beginning.
energman58 > Londonmaxwell
Except that the slack has to be taken up by inflation and declining living
standards - Russia isn't unique; in Zimbabwe dollar terms almost every company
there did splendidly but the place is still bust. The problem is that most
of the debt is USD denominated and without the investment blocked by sanctions
they are looking at a declining production, low oil prices and an increasing
debt service burden. Presumably they could revert to the traditional model
of starving the peasants that has served them so well in the past but I
am not sure if the people with the real stroke will be quite so happy to
see their assets wither away...
Londonmaxwell > energman58
Comparing Russia with Mugabeland is a stretch, but I see your point.
If the sanctions stay and the oil price goes south permanently, then Moscow
has problems. But I question both assumptions. Merkel/Hollande/Renzi already
face huge pressure from their business leaders to resume normal relations
with Russia; i.e., drop the sanctions. As for oil prices, the USA's shale
sector is already in trouble. Russia's debt burden (both public and private)
is manageable and can scarcely worsen since it is cut off from the credit
markets. While the oil price slump certainly hurts Russia's economy, I don't
see the wheels falling off anytime soon.
AEP writes well and is always thought-provoking, but his view that Russia
is facing Armageddon because of oil prices and sanctions is way off the
mark.
steph borne
Here come the Ukrainian Nazis.. You lot must be very happy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/e... 18 minutes in..
Maidan number 3 on the way as I predicted a year ago.
midnightrambler
Amazing how the narrative for military action is being fostered by articles
such as this one.
So many people eager for something they have no intention of getting
involved in themselves
snotcricket
It is rather odd the posts on this thread accusing any & all who question
the obvious US gov line in such articles.
Could it be that some have better memories ie the Ukrainian crisis was
in fact created by the support of the US & EU for but a few thousand sat
in Independence Sq just two years after the country had voted in the target
with a majority the likes of Cameron, Obama could only dream of.
Only an idiot could not have seen the Russki response to a situation
that could in but a very short timescale see NATO troops & kit but a literal
footstep from Russki soil....while the ports used by the Russki fleets would
be lost overnight usurped no doubt by a 'NATO' fleet of US proportions.....plainly
the US knew the likely outcome to the deposing of the elected leader & replaced
by the EU puppets....the Russki's had little option.....Putin or no Putin
this would have been the outcome.
With regard to the US led attack on the Russki economy with sanctions....well
those sanctions hurt the UK too...but of course not the US (they have lobbyist
for such matters) our farmers were hurting afore the sanctions....that became
a damn sight worse after the imposition.
The US attempts to turn off the oil/gas taps of Putin has done damage
to the Russkis, similarly its done damage to W. Europe thus ourselves as
oil prices are now held at a level by the sanctions reducing world supplies
(the US have lobbyists for such matters) thus the god of the US, the market
is skewed & forecourt prices too sighed Osborne as the overall taxation
gathers 67% of what goes through the retailers till.
This has been rumbling for over 3 years since the BRICS held their meeting
to create a currency that would challenge the $ in terms of the general
w.w economy but specifically oil. They did mistime the threat & should have
kept their powder dry as the US economy like our own lives on borrowed time
& money.....but they made the mistake the US was in such decline they couldn't
respond....of course the US have the biggest of all responses to any threat....its
armed forces & their technology that advances far more rapidly than any
economy.
Incidentally I write this sat at my laptop in the North of England in
between running my own business & contacting clients etc..........I suspect
my politics would make Putin wince.....however the chronology, actions/outcomes
& the general logic of the situation has now't to do with supporting one
or t'other.......& do remember the US grudgingly acknowledge without the
Russkis the er, er agreement with Iran & non-proliferation would still be
a can yet to be kicked down the road.
Personally I'd be more worried that Putin has made fools of the US/EU
leaders so many times thus wonder just what is the intent in assisting the
brokering of any deal? With the West & Iran.
steph borne
If Russia was worried about the oil price they would not have been so
helpful in getting the usa & Iran together on a deal which will put more
downward pressure on the oil price!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new... Barack Obama praises Putin for help
clinching Iran deal
oleteo
Reading this article I saw only one message to be sent to the Russians:"Russians,surrender!"
The rumours about the desease and the ongoing decease of the Russian economy
are greatly exaggerated.
steph borne
June 17, 2015 at 1:44 pm Boeing said it struck a $7.4 billion deal to
sell 20 of its 747-8 freighters to Russia's Volga-Dnepr Group, providing
a much-needed boost to the jumbo-jet program amid flagging demand for four-engine
aircraft. http://www.seattletimes.com/bu...
MOSCOW, Russia (May 26, 2015) – Bell Helicopter,
a Textron Inc. (NYSE: TXT) company, announced today an agreement with
JSC Ural Works of Civil Aviation (UWCA) for the development of final
assembly capabilities by UWCA for the Bell 407GXP in order to support
UWCA in obtaining Russian registry to facilitate their operations. http://www.bellhelicopter.com/...
.
Oh business as normal at Bell looks like sanctions only to be paid heed
by the useful idiots in the EU
snotcricket > steph borne
Yes the sanctions do seem to TTIP more in the US favour than their Western,
er, er partners
Sonduh
Just like Brown Osborne is reducing borrowing but encouraging consumer
debt which is close to 120% GDP. By the end of next year household debt
will be 172% of earnings.Once household debt reaches saturation point and
they start defaulting on their debt as they did in 2008 -- Game over. I
hear the Black Sea is nice this time of year.
steph borne
A report by Sberbank warned that Gazprom's revenues are likely to drop
by almost a third to $106bn this year from $146bn in 2014, seriously eroding
Russia's economic base.''
Last year $146 billion bought 4672 billion pybs this year $106 billion
will buy 6148 Billion pybs
Gazprom alone generates a tenth of Russian GDP and a fifth of all budget
revenues. the Pyb devaluation vs. $ has led to a 31% increase in revenues..
Something Salmond should take notice of should the SNP want to go for
independence again. Inflation at 16% may well be but its the price of imported
stuff pushing up the prices.. mainly EU goods for sale .. that won't be
bought!
As the merkins tell us a devalued dollar is your problem.. the devalued
rouble is the EUs problem!
Nikki Santoro
What is happening is the Anglo-Muricuns are actively provoking the Chinese
and Russkies into a war. However once it is all said and done, they are
going to need a cover story. People are going to ask why the Russkies attacked.
And then the Anglo-Muricuns are going to say that Putin put all his eggs
in one basket. Yeah that is what happened but really if Putin does attack,
it will be because of the endless Anglo-Muricun provocations. Just as they
provoked Hilter to no end and Imperial Japan as well.
steph borne
Russian companies have to refinance $86bn....''
So what are you going to do if they default.. go in and repossess..You
and who's army? They are struggling trying to get Greece to comply..
Russia's trade surplus is still in the Billions of Dollars while the
usa's & UKs is mired in deficit.. Russia recorded a trade surplus of 17.142
USD Billion in May of 2015 http://www.tradingeconomics.co....
Debt public/ external debt ratios
U. K..................92%........317%
usa...................74%......... 98%
And
Russia...............8%..........40%
''And while UK growth could reach 3pc this year, our expansion is far
too reliant on rising personal and government debt. ''
''The UK, with an external deficit now equal to 6pc of GDP, the second-largest
in half a century,''
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin...
As ever the west points to Russia and says Look over there (for God's sake
don't look here!)
Sonduh > steph borne
And don't forget all their gold reserves. And all their natural resources.
Skalla
Prosperous countries are usually benevolent (the US being the exception
to the rule). Hungry countries get to be greedy and aggressive. The US with
its economic and financial manipulations will turn a sleepy bear into a
very awake and ravenous one, and after hibernation, the first thing bears
do is FEED --
vandieman
A cynic could say that the US is driving the oil prices down to push
Russia into a war.
Anth2305 > vandieman
Wait until Iranian oil comes fully on stream, which I heard some pundit
on TV say could drive the cost down to < $30 a barrel, forcing the Saudis
into having to eat massively into their foreign reserves.
gardiner
When the old USSR 'collapsed', what we call the 'Oligarchs' ( a collection
of the most highly influential State officials who pocketed practically
all the old State assets) corruption was at the very highest level, and
society was at its weakest.
The economy became dependant on resource exports.
Because the country's capital was so concentrated, there was practically
no 'middle class' of entrepreneurs who could invest capital in job creating,
internationally competitive industry.
Although a lot further down this road than the UK - the warning is stark!
beatonthedonis > gardiner
Abramovich wasn't a state official, he was a rubber-duck salesman. Berezovsky
wasn't a state official, he was an academic. Khodorkovsky wasn't a state
official, he was a PC importer. Gusinsky wasn't a state official, he was
an unlicensed cab driver. Smolensky wasn't a state official, he was a blackmarketeer.
Fridman wasn't a state official, he was a ticket tout.
daddyseanicus
So the political sanctions are bankrupting Russia because they dared
to challenge EU expansion. Result millions of poor Russians will start to
flow West and the UK will have another flood of Eastern Europeans.
But at least we showed them our politicians are tough.
Busufi > Jonathan
In the East there is a saying: Why use poison when sugar delivers the
same result. Or say as Deng said, It doesn't matter whether the Cat is black
or white, so long it catches the mice.
Spelling it out for Russia (or Britain) that would mean giving up
Byzantine based ambitions and prospering through alliances with the Muslim
Nation or Countries, including Turkey. In the short term such a move would
quell internal dissent of the 11m immigrants in Russia, reduce unsustainable
security expenditure with its central Asian neighbours, open and expand
market for Russian goods in the Middle East, Far East and North Africa,
and eventually form and provide a military-commercial -political alliance
(like NATO) for the Muslim nations with Russia (with partner strength based
upon what is mostly commercial placed on the table (see the gist in the
Vienna Agreement between P5+1 and Iran).
The formation of such an alliance would trump Russia's (or Britain's)
opponents ambitions and bring prosperity.
Sonduh
" They are running a budget deficit of 3.7pc of GDP but without developed
capital markets Russia can't really afford to run a deficit at all."
We are able to have a budget deficit of 4.8% and 90% national debt, 115%
non financial corporate debt , 200% financial corporate debt and 120% household
debt due to voodoo economics ie. countries can print money to buy your debt.
PS we also have unfunded liabilities like pensions which amounts to many
hundred pc of GDP.
The results showed the extraordinary sums that Britain has committed to
pay its future retirees. In total, the UK is committed to paying £7.1 trillion
in pensions to people who are currently either already retired or still
in the workforce.
This is equivalent to nearly five times the UK's total economic output.
Such a figure may be hard to put into proportion, as a trillion – a thousand
billion – is obviously a huge number.
And we think Russia is in a bad state.
georgesilver
Propaganda. Laughable coming from the UK hack when the UK has un-payable
debt and Russia has little external debt plus we have no Gold and Russia
has probably 20,000 tonnes. NATO surrounds Russia yet they are the aggressors.
Laughable but idiots still believe the propaganda.
tarentius > georgesilver
The entire world combined has 32,000 tonnes of gold reserves. Russia
has 1,200 tonnes.
Russia has government debt of 18% to GDP, a contracting GDP. It is forced
to pay interest of 15% on any newly issued bonds, and that's rising. And
it has a refinancing crisis on existing debt on the horizon.
Russia's regions are heavily in debt and about 25% of them are already
bankrupt. The number is rising.
And we haven't even gotten into the problem with Russian business loans.
Turn out the lights, the party's over for Russia.
Bendu Be Praised > mrsgkhan •
The issue is the medias portrayal of Putin .. If the UK media was straight
up with the people and just said .. "our friends in the US hate the Russians
.. The Russians are growing too big and scary therefore we are going to
join in destroying the Russian economy before they become uncatchable "
the people would back them ..
Lets be honest .. The Russians don't do anything that we don't .. Apart
from stand up to the US that is
Jim0341
Yesterday, AEP spread the gloom about China, today it is Russia. As ever,
he uses quotes from leading figures in banks and finance houses, which are
generally bemoaning low returns on investments, rather than the wellbeing,
or otherwise, of the national economy..
Whose turn is it tomorrow, AEP? My bet is Taiwan.
Bendu Be Praised > FreddieTCapitalist
I think you will find that the UK are just pretending the sanctions and
wars are not hurting us ..
Just look at the budget .. 40% cuts to public services .. America tried
to destroy the Russian economy by flooding the market with cheap oil but
it will come back to bite them ..
The UK should just back off .. lift sanctions against Russia and let
the US squabble with them by themselves ..
I sick of paying taxes for the US governments "War on the terror and
the rest of the world"
alec bell
This article makes no sense. First of all, there is no way that Gazprom
is responsible for 1/10th of Russia's GDP. That is mathematically impossible.
1/20th is more like it. Second, if push comes to shove, Russians are perfectly
capable of developing their own vitally-important technologies. Drilling
holes in the ground cannot be more complicated than conquering space.
Whatever problems Russia has, engineering impotence is not one of them.
And third, if Russians' reliance on resourses' exports has led to "the
atrophy of their industry" as AEP rightly points out, then it must logically
follow that disappearance of that revenue will inevitably result in their
industrial and agricultural renaissance.
In the end, Ambrose is too ideological to be credible on the issue.
Sure, Russia has couple lean years ahead, but it will come out of this ordeal
stronger, not weaker. There are already reports of mini boomlets gathering
steam under the surface.
alec bell > vlad
vlad, JFYI: According to research conducted by the World Economic Forum
(which excludes China and India due to lack of data), Russia leads the way,
producing an annual total of 454,000 graduates in engineering, manufacturing
and construction. The United States is in second position with 237,826 while
Iran rounds off the top three with 233,695. Developing economies including
Indonesia and Vietnam have also made it into the top 10, producing 140,000
and 100,000 engineering graduates each year respectively.
Nikki Santoro
Don't mess with the Anglo-Muricuns. They will jack you up bad. Unless
you are thousands of miles away and posting anonymously. But even still
they can lens you out and cleanse you out should you take it too far. However
their dominance is not some much because of their brilliance. They don't
have any despite their propaganda. But rather the depths they are willing
to stoop to in order to secure victory. Like blowing up an airliner and
then pinning it on you for instance. Or poisoning their own farmland.
steve_from_virginia
Futures' traders got burned earlier this year betting that oil prices
would rise right back to where they were a year previously. Now they have
'gotten smart'. They know now the problem isn't Saudi Arabia but billions
of bankrupt consumers the world around.
Customers are bankrupt b/c of QE and other easing which shifts purchasing
power claims from customers to drillers -- and to the banks. As the customers
go broke so do the banks: instead of gas lines there are ATM lines.
At the same time, ongoing 'success' at resource stripping is cannibalizing
the purchasing power faster than ever before. Soon enough, the claims will
be worthless! When the resource capital is inaccessible, so is the purchasing
power -- which is the ability to obtain that resource capital.
Business has caught itself in the net of its own propaganda; that there
is such a thing as material progress out of waste ... that a better future
will arrive the day after tomorrow.
Turns out tomorrow arrives and things get worse. Who could have thunk
it?
Brabantian
If AEP is as right about Russia as he was about the Yank shale gas 'boom'
- now collapsing into a pile of toxic bad debt -
Then our Russian friends have nothing to worry about
midnightrambler > Guest
The largest military spend - the US - bigger than the next 20 countries
combined
The most bases - the US with 800, including many in Germany
Nobody wants war - but the US needs it as their largest industry is defence
- apart from manipulative banking.
We are heading for a point of rupture between those who are peaceful and
those whose main aim is control and conflict.
Take your pick
A few leaders choose war - most people (who will fight those wars) choose
peace.
And of course all wars are bankers' wars - it is only they who profit
Timothy D. Naegele
Both Putin and Russia are in a spiral, from which they will not recover.
See https://naegeleblog.wordpress.... ("Putin Meets Economic Collapse
With Purges, Broken Promises")
Tony Cocks > Timothy D. Naegele
"Both Putin and Russia are in a spiral, from which they will not recover."
This from someone whose former President and gang of criminal henchmen
lied to the world on a monumental scale about WMD in Iraq , and waged an
illegal war on that country killing hundreds of thousands in the process
. Following that it was Libyas turn , then Syrias . Now its Russia the US
neo con warmongers are hounding, the difference being that Russia holds
the worlds biggest nuclear arsenal.
The US forces had their kicked out of Vietnam and were thoroughly beaten
despite throwing everything they had at the conflict save the nuclear option.
Imagine what will happen if it eventually comes to armed conflict with Russia.
midnightrambler > Timothy D. Naegele
A yank lawyer advocating killing.
From the land of citizen killers
What a surprise
Stay away
stephenmarchant
Instead of demonising Putin and banging on about the problems of the
Russian economy the MSM should be worried about indebted Western economies
including the UK and US. Russian Govt finances are not burdened with nearly
£2trn of debt that has funded unsustainable nominal growth. Here in the
UK the real GDP growth per capita is declining at over 3% per anum so as
a nation the UK is continuing its decline:-
Govt deficit at 5% per anum
Govt debt at about 80% GDP
Private debt and corporate debt each of a similar order
Record current account deficit of about 5% per anum
A deteriorating NIIP (Net International Investment Position)
Uncontrolled immigration
Our whole debt based fiat system is on the brink but few can see it whilst
they party with asset and property bubbles. A few of us foresaw the first
crash of 2007/8 but we now face a systemic collapse of our fiat system because
of the resulting 'extend and pretend' policy of Govts and central bankers.
In the final analysis the true prosperity of a nation will depend upon
its natural resources, infrastructure, skills of its workforce and social
cohesion.
Graham Milne > JabbaTheCat
The scale of Russian kleptocracy pales into vanishing insignificance
beside the criminality of western banks (and the government who 'regulate'
them). Europe and the USA are regimes run by criminals; worse than that,
they are run by traitors. At least Putin isn't a traitor to his country.
Busufi
The best way for Russia to beat the downturn in it's oil and gas is to
invest in down-stream strategic production of petroleum products that would
give Russia a competitive advantage on a global scale.
Selling raw natural resources is the Third World way of exports. Not
smart.
GAZPROM wins. Gas will flow thru Turkey to Europe. The amounts will
increase. Ukraine will soon no longer be a conduit, and lose all clout when
they try to dodge paying the bill for their own.
Probably back in the
Russian sphere of influence in a few years, assuming the EU won't pay their
gas bill, and the present leadership will be wards of the EU somewhere in
Germany. Actually, were Russia wise, they would just refuse gas to the
Ukraine at any price. Surrender or freeze. Maybe needlessly heavy handed.
Just impose increasingly crushing conditions. With a smile.
Europe Nat Gas consumption:
1.132 billion cubic meters/day (from mazama and converted to m^3)
minus Europe Nat Gas production
–> about 570 million cubic meters/day imported (9.5% increase in 2015) X 365 = 208 billion cubic
meters/yr
Nordstream pipeline 55 billion cubic meters/yr plans to double by 2019 to 110 billion m^3/yr.
That's Gazprom thru Germany.
Ukraine pipeline(s) into Europe presently: 142 billion cubic meters/year.
Belarus pipeline(s) into Europe presently: 38 billion cubic meters/year
Adds to 235 billion cubic meters/yr which is 20 some billion more than the Euro number above
because some is going to Macedonia, Serbia and other none EU countries. Relatively inconsequential.
Note that the popular phrasing that Russia only provides 31% of Europe's gas is almost certainly
bogus. More like 45-50%.
Now then, Nordstream 2 (that's all GAZPROM gas) will be chopped from Ukraine's flow. Because
GAZPROM can just force Belarus gas to be used by not flowing enough thru Ukraine.
The TANAP pipeline is to flow only 16 billion cubic meters/yr of gas from a non Russia source
thru Turkey.
The agreement just reached between Putin and Erdogan is for a pipeline carrying Russian gas
at 63 billion cubic meters/yr. Turkey will burn 14 of that (they burn 45 billion m^3 /yr) leaving
49 to flow to Europe.
The EU is already trying to interfere, saying there is insufficient capacity in pipelines north
thru Greece and other countries, but clearly Greece will burn it and that reduces what's left
going north.
Bottom line. Nordstream 2 will be a new 55 billion m^3/yr of GAZPROM gas. TurkeyStream will
flow another 49 billion m^3/yr. This will be new from present flows. And Ukraine's flow is 142.
They'll be reduced to under 40.
Ukraine gets almost $3 billion/yr in transit fees.
They have demanded just about a double
of that 5 mos ago. GAZPROM has not agreed. The Ukraine transit pipeline system apparently
also needs $19B in maintenance work GAZPROM had planned to pay for before Ukraine broke
relations with Russia. No longer.
Ukraine GDP 90B in 2015 and is falling this year.
So either the EU picks up the $19B plus the $3B/yr in transit fees Ukraine will lose
starting late next year (plus cost of Ukraine's consumption itself(they are 5th largest
in Europe)), or the fat lady sings.
BTW Poland just completed an LNG import terminal. Look at those flow numbers above in
the thread. Now . . . understand Poland is talking about sending Qatari gas from the LNG
terminal to Lithuania and the rest of Europe, to reduce horrible dependence on Russian gas,
even if LNG gas is priced 3X higher than piped GAZPROM gas. But yes, Poland is going to
send gas to other countries from their LNG terminal.
Oh, and the new LNG terminal has a capacity of 5 billion m^3/yr. Repeat. 5 billion m^3/year.
That's max in its final form.
Chairman Xi Jinping is making Russia an offer that
Russia can't refuse?
Notable quotes:
"... "We are now seeing the aggressive actions on the part of the United States, regarding both Russia and China. I believe that Russia and China could create an alliance toward which NATO will be powerless and which will put an end to the imperialist desires of the West." ..."
"The world is on the verge of radical change. We see how the European Union is gradually collapsing,
as is the US economy -- it is all over for the new world order. So, it will never again be as
it was before, in 10 years we will have a new world order in which the key will be the union of
China and Russia."
"We are now seeing the aggressive actions on the part of the United States,
regarding both Russia and China. I believe that Russia and China could create an alliance toward
which NATO will be powerless and which will put an end to the imperialist desires of the West."
Great link, thanks.
Given the real world politic, I don't see that Russia has much choice. The lack of pressure by
the PRC is an important note; Russia isn't being coerced but rather romanced.
My fear has been, and remains, the bat shit crazy neo-cons and their inability to let go of the
imperialist dream of world hegemon.
[Aug 07, 2016] Neocon from Foreign Policy magazine are still dreaming about dismembering and colonizing Russi
Notable quotes:
"... No kidding; Kiev's ability to interrupt gas flows to Europe – which the west previously would not even discuss, since it was obviously Russia using energy as a weapon – is presented as just kittenish playfulness, and such an interruption is not a big problem because it's so amusing to watch the clever Ukrainians tweak Moscow's nose. All in good fun, of course, and transit fees are a right. There's just nothing about going around Ukraine to prevent that from happening which could be described as good fun, or tweaking Kiev's nose. Because the Ukrainians are cute, and the Russians are savages. ..."
"This summer hasn't seen a lot of setbacks for Russia, not even for its Olympic hopefuls.
Crimea has been annexed and fully absorbed, with the blessing of Republican presidential front-runner
Donald Trump, who also calls NATO "obsolete." Russian intelligence services have allegedly
been pawing through the emails of U.S. political parties, and releasing them at their leisure.
Turkey, in the wake of a failed coup attempt, is rushing to mend fences with Moscow."
Couple of things, my unfellow whiner. First, Crimea has been annexed and absorbed prior to
Trump's statement. Ergo it could not have happened with his blessing, since his blessing could
only come after the events took place, but what's temporal physics to a "journalist" from FP?
Second, at this point I think it's safe to conclude that every intelligence service of any powerful
countries studied those e-mails, no need for allegedly. And we don't know if it's the Russians
that are releasing them. Third, Turkey rushed to mend ties with Moscow before the coup, not after,
but then again, what's temporal physics to a "journalist" from FP? This article promises to deliver
mirth, let's read on!
"All of which makes last month's decision by the Polish antitrust regulator to file a formal
objection against Russia's proposed "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline more noteworthy. That regulatory
spanner could be Europe's last and best chance to halt construction of a pipeline that critics
say will divide Europe, beggar Ukraine, and reinforce Moscow's energy dominance for another generation."
That's a big deal? Poland's opposition to Nord Stream 2 has been well document throughout the
ages. Ukraine is already beggared, but let's all blame that on Russia. Moscow's energy dominance
comes from the EU being a voracious money swallowing pit, and not enough solar/wind/nuclear powerplants
being built, due to, wait for it… lack of funding! Those funds are in places like Syria and Iraq.
Oh, and won't the lack of construction divide Europe? Cause I doubt that Russia's going to prop
up Ukraine, so if Southern Europe has no gas and Northern Europe has some, won't that be divisive?
"For years, Russia has sought to keep Europe dependent on its exports of energy, especially
through natural gas pipelines. But Moscow is also desperate to cut out potentially meddlesome
middlemen, like Ukraine, which sits smack between Russia's natural gas fields and millions of
European consumers. That gives Kiev the ability to interrupt Russian gas flows headed to Europe,
infuriating Moscow, but also earns Ukraine billions of dollars in much-needed transit fees."
Oh really? So Kaliningrad's border with EU member states are somehow attached to Ukraine? Intriguing,
very intriguing, did someone skip his geography class?
"A decade ago, Russia enlisted former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to help it build a
pipe across the Baltic from Russia to Germany, sidestepping Ukraine: Nord Stream. Then Russia
tried to build another pipeline, "South Stream," across the Black Sea from Russia to Bulgaria,
also bypassing Ukraine, but that was quashed by the European Union in 2014. Then, Moscow invented
the idea of a "Turkish Stream," another proposed Black Sea pipe, one landing in Turkey, outside
of Brussels's reach. But last fall, Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian jet, and with it hopes of
any immediate Russo-Turkish energy cooperation."
Really? Because in the beginning, the article claimed that "Turkey…is rushing to mend fences
with Moscow." So they're rushing to cooperate, ergo there won't be cooperation? Stellar "journalism"
absolutely stellar.
'… But the Polish Office of Competition and Consumer Protection last month determined that
Nord Stream 2 - which wouldn't even touch Polish territory - could harm consumers. "The Office
found that the concentration might lead to restriction of competition," it tentatively concluded,
adding that the project could "further strengthen" Gazprom's "dominant position." …'
Looks as if the Poles and the FP writer have a strange idea of what free market competition
is. Their idea seems to be that the more middlemen there are, taking their cut, oops, share of
the transit fees, and passing the costs down the pipeline, the more competition there is. Plus
the journalist fails to see what's wrong with Ukraine interrupting the flow of gas from Russia
to the EU to get transit fee income, unless of course he thinks extortion is a legitimate way
of doing business.
That gives Kiev the ability to interrupt Russian gas flows headed to Europe, infuriating
Moscow, but also earns Ukraine billions of dollars in much-needed transit fees.
So, when Ukraine interrupts gas flow to Europe to "infuriate" Moscow, Europe is not infuriated
to contend with a crippling gas shortage? And how long is Russia expected to rely on a transit
country that likes to infuriate its customer? Gawd, this guy is stupid.
No kidding; Kiev's ability to interrupt gas flows to Europe – which the west previously would
not even discuss, since it was obviously Russia using energy as a weapon – is presented as just
kittenish playfulness, and such an interruption is not a big problem because it's so amusing to
watch the clever Ukrainians tweak Moscow's nose. All in good fun, of course, and transit fees
are a right. There's just nothing about going around Ukraine to prevent that from happening which
could be described as good fun, or tweaking Kiev's nose. Because the Ukrainians are cute, and
the Russians are savages.
It looks like Russia is not going to be told that it must continue transiting gas through Ukraine,
although Ukraine has been on its best behavior where transit is concerned over the last little
while (to show how reliable it can be), and transit through Ukraine has actually increased, a
fact they lose no opportunity to point out (as if to say, you need us now more than ever). But
Kiev reserves the right to hike the transit fees whenever it needs a little more struttin' money,
and while the obstructive talk is on hold for now, the Ukrainians love to shoot their mouths off
and have made it clear they will simply take gas intended for Europe if Russia restricts Ukraine's
supply (although they have brought their Russia supplies way, way down by buying Russian gas from
other European countries, bought with gas money given it by the IMF.
Russia would very likely agree to continue supplying Ukraine through its own pipeline network,
probably even at a quite attractive price – but if Ukraine started any of its special-needs antics,
Russia would not have to worry about Europe's supply going through Ukraine's decrepit pipeline
system. Ukraine could be cut off without a second thought, as any reasonable supplier would do
if it is not getting paid or is otherwise abused by its customer – and as Europe would do in a
second if it were the other way round and Russia was spending billions for European gas transited
through Ukraine, which the Ukrainians poached at their leisure.
"... Expect this issue to take center stage in the coming months, because northwest Europe, with declining production of its own gas, is going to need a reliable solution, and should be getting pretty tired of propping up Ukraine, Romania and Poland the perennial malcontents. At the present time Poland's regulatory commission is holding up Nord Stream II just because it can – but don't expect that to last. The EU is soon going to be faced with the choice of a Russian gas pipeline in whose operation they will at least have input and in whose construction European companies will share some of the lolly – or a Russo-Turkic pipeline in which they have no say at all and the gas delivery point is at the border. ..."
"... Expect Brussels to accuse Russia of 'dumping' gas on the EU market, regardless of any truth. Russia could still reduce price and make a profit, ergo not 'dumping' in any sense. I would then expect all those new gas reservoirs being built by Germany, Gasprom and others to fill up on cheap Russian gas. ..."
Why does Nord Stream operate at less than 100% capacity? Because of
capacity restrictions imposed by Brussels – just remember that the next time that poxy twat
Sefcovic starts blabbering on about why do we need Nord Stream II when the original pipeline only
operates at half-capacity? And he will, be sure of it. If Nord Stream could operate at 100% capacity,
it would be half the cost of transiting through Ukraine. Just how much charity is Russia expected
to offer, especially considering Ukraine imposed a transit rate hike last year for the privilege
of using its leaky, whistling, rotting pipeline network?
Expect this issue to take center stage in the coming months, because northwest Europe, with
declining production of its own gas, is going to need a reliable solution, and should be getting
pretty tired of propping up Ukraine, Romania and Poland the perennial malcontents. At the present
time Poland's regulatory commission is holding up Nord Stream II just because it can – but don't
expect that to last. The EU is soon going to be faced with the choice of a Russian gas pipeline
in whose operation they will at least have input and in whose construction European companies
will share some of the lolly – or a Russo-Turkic pipeline in which they have no say at all and
the gas delivery point is at the border.
And really, the
EU's arguments make it look like it was dropped on its head as an infant. If Turkish Stream
goes ahead, the story goes, it will increase dependency on Russian gas, but block Caspian supplies.
How? Caspian supplies (Azerbaijan) are supposed to come via the Southern Gas Corridor, which the
EU keeps saying it is pressing on with but has yet to lay a foot of. Remind you of the talking-shop
that Nabucco became? How much money was pissed away on that, and they didn't build any of it.
But the argument seems to be that if Turkish Stream is built, the Southern Gas Corridor cannot
be. Why not? What's stopping you?
Price. The EU is scared it cannot do it as cheaply as Russia. And it probably can't. How does
that bear on the consumer? Sefcovic already told you – it's not all about price. What price freedom,
my friends? Aren't you willing to pay more for your gas so you can say it is Azerbaijani gas instead
of Putin's gas? What do you say, European consumer? But it keeps going on about how Turkey and
everybody else will get cheap gas, but is still trying to frighten Europeans that if they depend
on Russian gas it will go up. Why would it, if it's costing Russia less to ship it?
Kiev should be getting scared. Because there is an increased chance Brussels will cave on the
Nord Stream II issue, considering the factors I've already laid out. Or else Putin will build
Turkish Stream, and the EU will have to build its own infrastructure to hook up at the border,
and either solution will bypass Ukraine – through which, incidentally, transit was up 21% in the
first months of 2016, as the Ukrainians try to showcase what reliable partners they are. But that
route fails on price. Wah wah wahhhhhh….sorry, Kiev.
But even if the price of gas did rise due to EU dithering, Russia could still undercut American
LNG price. It comes down to how much are you willing to pay to proudly say "No thank you, Mr.
Putin"? It's like Sikorski and his Polish LNG terminal, where he said it costs more, but at least
it flies the Polish flag, or like how you could probably sleep with the starlet of your dreams…if
you were willing to do anything to get her. Prostitute yourself, sell drugs, move to another country,
completely change your lifestyle, whatever it took. A lot of things that are attainable in the
abstract are simply not worth it. the UK might be able to get by with no gas imports at all –
it still has a little, and they could go back to coal and wood-burning fireplaces like on "Upstairs,
Downstairs" (my ex loved that program", and theoretically they could do it, with just a little
of that famed British pluck and a stiff upper lip. But nobody wants to do it, because the illusion
of independence is not worth behaving so stupidly. It has become a game to see who can get their
people deeper in self-denial so that their leader can thumb his nose at Putin.
It is a bit like Hinckley Point – the UK can't be reliant on Chinese involvement for security
reasons (although the French suffered too when the agreement was frozen). Our elites try to get
away with it by keeping the population in a state of fear. But they also reward their own chums
with contracts, no matter what the cost.
So, yes, I do think they'll try to get away with it, whatever the cost (they'll just blame
the utility companies).
There would be the entry of an opposition political figure, telling the populace as much as it
would listen to about how an alternate source which is cheaper is available but our political
masters make us pay more in order to score political points with their master and perhaps
advance themselves and their positions…if the situation were reversed and Russia were dependent
on European gas, and Putin was trying to wean the Russians off of it in favour of a more-expensive
but more exclusionary alternative.
In my opinion, Russia needs to do that more. Sponsor opposition politicians in enemy countries,
I mean. It's a go-to western tactic.
Expect Brussels to accuse Russia of 'dumping' gas on the EU market, regardless of any truth. Russia
could still reduce price and make a profit, ergo not 'dumping' in any sense. I would then expect
all those new gas reservoirs being built by Germany, Gasprom and others to fill up on cheap Russian
gas.
I have a question though. If gazprom fills up its CEEC/Balkan reservoirs when gas is X price
at X time, is that the fixed price of the gas or if the world price drops, it can sell it for
less without it technically being 'dumping'? Does anyone know what the mechanism is?
Here's those good ole western values again on display here, this time directed at the peons in
Europe. You wouldn't know it from our posturing politicians but fuel poverty is a massive problem
in Europe affecting between 50 to 125 million people. The health consequences are dire from thousands
of excess deaths in winter's maw to increases in chronic lung and respiratory diseases. And would
you believe it but the Baltic chihuahuas, ever-reliably yapping at all things Russian, have large
numbers of their populations living in fuel poverty. Ever read anything by Edward Lucas on this?
No, me neither. So, I couldn't really do justice to how angry the behaviour of these morons makes
me….people die before their time every year because they can't afford to properly heat their homes
and these geniuses in Brussels paid for by us are totally OK with rocketing fuel prices as long
as they can say they poked a finger in Vladimir Putin's eye.
Reply
Ukraine has managed to get rid of its gas dependence
on Russia, thus destroying the "energy weapon" of the Kremlin, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey
Pyatt has said.
The Ukrainian authorities over the past few years have in fact destroyed Moscow's energy weapon,
which used gas in this way, Pyatt said during a meeting of the discussion club "Open World" on
the transformations in Ukraine, progress and tasks for the future in Kyiv on Tuesday.
The diplomat said that Ukraine's national gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy currently purchases
gas only if it finds the price acceptable, but the natural gas has ceased to be the instrument
of manipulation. Ukrainians are no longer in the situation when the Kremlin uses energy resources
as a weapon, as an instrument of manipulating Ukrainian politicians, so that they should take
certain decisions, he said.
Pyatt also said that the Ukrainian energy sector is undergoing serious transformations and
this is very important to bring these changes to completion.
What? Buying the cheapest gas on the market is more economical than not paying for it at all,
which is what they did as regards gas directly supplied by Russia?
And where does this cheaper alternative supply come from - originally, not through an intermediary?
Украина не должна возвращать России $3 млрд, которые были получены во времена Виктора
Януковича. Об этом в программе "О политике" с Сергеем Руденко в эфире Еспресо [sic].TV
заявил министр финансов Александр Данилюк. "Это был политический кредит, который нас
заставили взять",- пояснил министр.
По словам господина Данилюка, эти средства в то время могли пойти на различные
выплаты в государстве. "Наша позиция заключается в том, что мы не должны возвращать эти
деньги",- сказал Александр Данилюк.
In the Ukraine they see no reason for paying back their $3 billion debt to Russia
The Ukraine is not obliged to return to Russia the $3 billion debt that was
accrued during Victor Yanukovych's
presidency.This
is what Finance Minister Alexander Danyluk said live on air to Sergei Rudenko during the
Espresso TV programme "On Politics". "Our position was that we were politically forced
to accept this credit. Therefore, our position is that we do not have to return this
money", explained the minister.
According to Mr. Danyluk, at the time they were able to use the money for the
payment of various state benefits. "Our position is that we should not return the
money", said Alexander Danyluk.
On December 16 last year, the IMF Executive Board recognized the official status of
the $3 billion Russian loan to the Ukraine. In response, the Ukraine announced a
moratorium on the payment of any debts to the Russian Federation.
Which is good business practice, according to Pyatt Twat, I presume.
They evidently believe Daddy Pyatt's muck that they are getting off the Gazprom tit
just because they are buying Gazprom gas from someone else. I would have a quiet word
with those people to warn them of the possibility that they might have to suddenly
find 45% to 90% of their gas supplies somewhere else if they did not put pressure on
Ukraine to pay its debts. Because it has evidently not occurred to Ukraine where they
would get their gas if their brotherly suppliers did not have any to sell, and were
scrambling to find enough for themselves. America would crow that Russia was using
energy as a weapon, of course, but Russia should be past caring what America thinks
or says because they are never going to be anything like friends no matter what
Russia says or does.
Meanwhile, Daddy Pyatt is going to have some 'splainin' to do
when Gazprom refuses to sell Ukraine any more gas until they pay. Because they're
still getting more than 10% directly. Russia is being nice, and usually sells them
gas as soon as they pay in advance for that amount. But maybe they should say, "You
know what? I think you should pay all your past dues before you get any more". And
they wouldn't have a leg to stand on, because it doesn't matter what 'their position'
is; the debt has been recognized as legal and binding.
He would take any criticism from Russia as an accolade, an indicator that he is
doing something right, because getting up Russia's nose is his stock in trade and
the reason he's posted in there. He's there to provoke confrontation between
Russia and Ukraine, the more the better, and he could not care less what will
happen to Ukrainians after he's gone.
As usual, Pyatt is trumpeting nonsense, although I would love for some intrepid journalist
to ask him why the USA is so resistant to Nord Stream II and preserving Ukraine's transit
fees for Russian gas. If it's so easy to cut your imports of Russian gas by more than half
that the poorest country in Europe can do it, why couldn't anyone do it?
Such as
the countries from whom Ukraine now buys its gas
– Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. Of the
three Slovakia is 90% dependent on Russian gas, Hungary 44%, and Poland 45%. These are the
countries that scream Nord Stream II must not be built – what would happen if Russia
stopped supplying them with gas? Where would Ukraine get its gas then? Where would its
suppliers make up their shortfall? American LNG? Ah ha, ha, ha!! Yes, I'm sure; forgive me
for laughing, I couldn't help it.
Russia is not making as much money, that's certainly true and will remain true for as
long as the west can force the price down through oversupply. Who will run out first? I
guess we'll see. But although profits are undeniably lower, Gazprom's exports to Europe
increased by approximately 16%
between January and May of this year. I think Europeans
should be asking themselves how important Ukraine really is in their gas-distribution
network. But bravo to Ukraine! See if you can reduce your Gazprom imports to zero! Now,
there's a worthy target. Just ask Daddy Pyatt from time to time how you're doing.
Back in the day contracts were "consensus in idem" or, my version =
"agreement in all essentials".
The "partners" ought to be aware that the RF (and its "emanations of the State" (c)
EU Law) appears to be relying on that, hmmm, understanding of "the rule of Law".
Chihuahua yelps and Banderastan yowls and EU poodle elite yips aside, the rest of the
wide world sees reality as the RF does.
Construction work is starting on a new pipeline project bringing Azeri gas through northern
Greece and Albania to Italy, reducing Europe's energy dependency on Russia.
The Trans Adriatic Pipeline will run for 878 kilometers (550 miles), from Greece's border with
Turkey to southern Italy, and includes a 105-kilometer (65-mile) stretch under the Adriatic Sea.
First deliveries to Europe are expected in 2020.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said the project would create 8,000 jobs in his financially
struggling country, which has more than 24 percent unemployment.
He spoke at a ceremony Tuesday to mark the beginning of the pipeline's construction in the
northern port city of Thessaloniki.
TAP is a joint project by Britain's BP, Azerbaijan's SOCAR, Italy's Snam, Belgium's Fluxys,
Spain's Enagas and Swiss Axpo.
"In 2015, the seven biggest publicly traded Western energy companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp.
and Royal Dutch Shell PLC, replaced just 75% of the oil and natural gas they pumped, on average,
according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of company data. It was the biggest combined drop
in inventory that companies have reported in at least a decade."
This author was probably one year early in his forecasts, but the direction was right -- we might
face oil shortages in 2017.
Notable quotes:
"... "In permitting low oil prices, the Saudis seek to bring the market back into equilibrium. At present, our calculation of break-even system-wide is in the $85–$100 a barrel range on a Brent basis." ..."
Low oil prices today may be setting the world up for an oil shortage as early as 2016. Today we
have just 2% more crude oil supply than demand and the price of gasoline is under $2.00/gallon in
Texas. If oil supply falls too far, we could see gasoline prices doubling within 18 months. For a
commodity as critical to our standard of living as oil is, it only takes a small shortage to drive
up the price.
On Thanksgiving Day, 2014 Saudi Arabia decided to maintain their crude oil output of approximately
9.5 million barrels per day. They've taken this action despite the fact that they know the world's
oil markets are currently over-supplied by an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day and the severe
financial pain it is causing many of the other OPEC nations. By now you are all aware this has caused
a sharp drop in global crude oil prices and has a dark cloud hanging over the energy sector. I believe
this will be a short-lived dip in the long history of crude oil price cycles. Oil prices have always
bounced back and this is not going to be an exception.
To put this in prospective, the world currently consumes about 93.5 million barrels per day of
liquid fuels, not all of which are made from crude oil. About 17% of the world's total fuel supply
comes from natural gas liquids ("NGLs") and biofuels.
One thing that drives the Bears opinion that oil prices will go lower during the first half of
2015 is that demand does decline during the first half of each year. Since most humans live in the
northern hemisphere, weather does have an impact on demand. I agree that this fact will play a part
in keeping oil prices depressed for the next few months. However, low gasoline prices in the U.S.
are certain to play a part in the fuel demand outlook for this year's vacation driving season.
Brent oil prices are now hovering around $60 a barrel. In my opinion, this is quite a bit lower
than Saudi Arabia thought the price would go and may lead to an "Emergency" OPEC meeting during the
first quarter. But for now, I am assuming that Saudi Arabia is willing to let the other OPEC members
suffer until the next scheduled OPEC meeting in June.
The commonly held belief is that Saudi Arabia is doing this to put a stop to the rapid growth
of production from the U.S. shale oil plays. Others believe it is their goal to crush the Russian
and Iranian economies. If the oil price remains at the current level for a few months longer it will
do all of the above.
My forecast models for 2015 assume that crude oil prices will remain depressed during the first
quarter, then slowly ramp up and accelerate as next winter approaches. I believe that by December
we will see a much tighter oil market and significantly higher prices. In a December 24, 2014 article
in The National, Steven Kopits managing director of Princeton Energy Advisors states that, "In
permitting low oil prices, the Saudis seek to bring the market back into equilibrium. At present,
our calculation of break-even system-wide is in the $85–$100 a barrel range on a Brent basis."
Mark Mobius, an economist and regular guest on Bloomberg TV recently said he sees Brent rebounding
to $90/bbl by the end of 2015.
Since 2005, only North America has been able to add meaningful crude oil supply. Outside of Canada
and the United States (including the Gulf of Mexico), the rest of the world's crude oil production
netted to a decline of a million barrels per day from December, 2010 to December, 2013. More than
half of the OPEC nations are now in decline. We've been able to supplement our fuel supply during
the last ten years with biofuels, but that is limited since we need the farmland for food supply.
I believe the current low crude oil price could be overkill and result in the next "Energy Crisis"
by early 2016. Enjoy these low gasoline prices while they last.
The upstream U.S. oil companies we follow closely are all announcing 20% to 50% cuts in capital
spending for 2015. We will start seeing the impact on supply at the same time the annual increase
in demand kicks in. Our model portfolio companies are all expected to report year-over-year increases
in production, but at a much slower pace than the last few years.
The current market turmoil has created a once in a generation opportunity for savvy energy
investors.
Whilst the mainstream media prints scare stories of oil prices falling through the floor
smart investors are setting up their next winning oil plays.
A study released by Credit Suisse two weeks ago shows that U.S. independents expect capital-expenditure
(Capex) cuts of one-third against production gains of 10 per cent next year. This would imply production
growth of 600,000 bpd of shale liquids, and perhaps another 200,000 bpd from Gulf of Mexico deepwater
projects. At the same time, U.S. conventional onshore production continues to fall. I have seen estimates
of 500,000 to 700,000 bpd declines within twelve months. If these forecasts are accurate, U.S. oil
production growth would be barely positive next year and headed for a material downturn in 2016.
North American unconventionals (oil sands, shale and other tight formations) have been almost
all of net global supply growth since 2005. If unconventional growth grinds to zero and conventional
growth is falling outright, the supply side heading into 2016 looks highly compromised. At today's
oil price, only the "Sweet Spots" in the North American Shale Plays and the Canadian Oil Sands generate
decent financial returns to justify the massive capital requirements needed to continue development.
Global deepwater exploration is rapidly coming to a halt.
Were demand growth muted, this might not matter. Demand for liquid fuels goes up year-after-year.
It even increased in 2008 during the "Great Recession" and ramped up sharply during 2009 and 2010
despite a sluggish global economy. Low fuel prices are increasing demand today and my guess is that,
with U.S. GDP growth now forecast at 5% in 2015, we could see demand for fuels increase by close
to 1.5 million barrels per day this year. The current IEA forecast is for oil demand to increase
by 900,000 bpd in 2015.
If this plays out, the oil markets will be heading into a significant squeeze in the first half
of 2016.
The last extended period of low oil prices was 1985 to 1990. In 1985, when oil prices collapsed
similar to what's happening now, the world had 13 million bpd of spare capacity, with 7 million bpd
in Saudi Arabia alone. OPEC was well-positioned to comfortably meet any increase in demand.
Today, just about all of the world's discretionary spare capacity resides in Saudi Arabia and
amounts to an estimate 2 million bpd. Lou Powers, an EPG member and author of "The
World Energy Dilemma," has said that Saudi Arabia will have difficulty maintaining production
at over 10 million bpd for an extended period. If we do swing to a supply shortage, Saudi Arabia
may find itself in the position of needing to run the taps full out for much of 2016. In such an
event, the world will be headed right back into an oil shock and we will see much higher oil prices
than $100/bbl.
"... If consumption is 10 million metric tons burned each day, it is 3,652,500,000 tonnes per year consumed by the gaping maws of industry to allow civilization be in the gluttony mode, with half of it gone, 150,000,000,000 tonnes to go, then there is a fifty year supply in the ground and under the seas and oceans. ..."
"The two basic factors of the world's oil supply are (1) geologic (discoveries) and (2) economic
(distribution). Petroleum geologists have done such a good job of finding oil that it looks as
easy as growing crops, and our engineers deliver the petroleum like clockwork. Consequently, the
public and many planners consider global distribution to be the only supply problem and attribute
all price swings to simple economics. They erroneously ignore critical long-term geological facts
and assume that cash spent = oil found. This premise is invalid where no oil exists or where prospects
are poor. Most people are unaware that the global quality of geological/oil prospects has declined
so much that the amount of new oil found per wildcat well has dropped 50% since a 1969 peak. Discoveries
of the most critical but easiest to find giant fields (each with over 500 million bbl of recoverable
oil) are now stalled at 315 known worldwide. We are simply no longer finding enough new crude
oil to replace the world's huge consumption of 20 billion bbl (840 billion gal) per year."
2,200,000,000,000/7.3=301,369,863,014 metric tons
of total oil extracted, yet of be extracted, past production and future production.
If consumption is 10 million metric tons burned each day, it is 3,652,500,000 tonnes per year
consumed by the gaping maws of industry to allow civilization be in the gluttony mode, with half
of it gone, 150,000,000,000 tonnes to go, then there is a fifty year supply in the ground and
under the seas and oceans.
The metric system is of an advantage when calculating the numbers, IMO.
Thanks to Robert Wilson for the links to L.F. Ivanhoe's findings and conclusions, appreciate
it.
2,200,000,000,000/7.3=301,369,863,014 metric tons
of total oil extracted, yet of be extracted, past production and future production.
If consumption is 10 million metric tons burned each day, it is 3,652,500,000 tonnes per year
consumed by the gaping maws of industry to allow civilization be in the gluttony mode, with half
of it gone, 150,000,000,000 tonnes to go, then there is a fifty year supply in the ground and
under the seas and oceans.
The metric system is of an advantage when calculating the numbers, IMO.
Thanks to Robert Wilson for the links to L.F. Ivanhoe's findings and conclusions, appreciate
it.
Global debt has grown some $57 trillion since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, reaching
a back-breaking $199 trillion in 2014, more than 2.5 times global GDP, according to the McKinsey
Global Institute. Servicing these debts will most likely become increasingly difficult over
the coming years, especially if growth continues to stagnate, interest rates begin to rise,
export opportunities remain subdued, and the collapse in commodity prices persists.
Much of the concern about debt has been focused on the potential for defaults in the eurozone.
But heavily indebted companies in emerging markets may be an even greater danger. Corporate
debt in the developing world is
estimated to have reached more than $18 trillion dollars, with as much as $2 trillion of it
in foreign currencies. The risk is that – as in Latin America in the 1980s and Asia in the
1990s – private-sector defaults will infect public-sector balance sheets.
If global growth stagnates, interest rates won't rise by much. So high interest
rates and low GDP growth is not a very realistic scenario. Very poor monetary policy could accomplish
it (like Volcker in the 80s), but we may have learned something since then about monetary policy.
"The EU, which gets 30 percent of its gas from Russia, was equally hungry for the pipeline, which
would have given its members cheap energy and relief from Vladimir Putin's stifling economic and
political leverage."
That is nonsense. The issue is that Russia has quite limited leverage: They can not replace
the European customers on short notice – pipeline chain producer to certain custrumers – and they
urgently need the income.
The more interesting question for Russia is how to cope with a customers who may reduce the
demand for NG by 1% per year for the next few decades.
"The issue is that Russia has quite limited leverage: They can not replace the European customers
on short notice"
Leverage is always mutual in the gas trade that involves long term contracts
and long gas supply lines. It is like marriage :-)
"The more interesting question for Russia is how to cope with a customers who may reduce the
demand for NG by 1% per year for the next few decades."
I am not sure that this is the case.
"Gazprom's gas exports to Europe – including Turkey – had increased to 158.6 billion cubic meters
in 2015 with a 8.2 percent increase compared to 2014."
The EU's domestic production of natural gas, including non-EU member Norway, is already in
terminal decline and will be declining into the future by almost 2% per year until it reaches
zero.
Unless the EU can find alternative sources of natural gas at competitive prices, Russia remains
the only economical option, hence the extremely high stakes over the Syrian War.
Moreover, the EU's "Green Energy" policies are an outright, insolvent disaster. Windmills and
solar panels can never and will never compete with hydrocarbons and don't let any muppet claim
otherwise. If wind and solar were anywhere remotely viable sources then why would anyone give
a toss over the Middle East at all? The degree to which "alternative energy" is uneconomical can
be seen from the EU's extremely high energy costs, far and away the highest in the world. In their
fanatical crusade against Russia, the EU countries have opted for a catastrophic energy policy
that has rendered them global economic growth laggards. All this, just so that Russia's gas exports
could be kept at the absolute minimum.
What Russia seeks to achieve vis-a-vis Europe, is to force/encourage/compel the EU to integrate
by as much as possible with Russia. What NATO (and especially the US and Euro-Atlanticists) most
fear is that a Russia rich in capital and technology would be the world's dominant geopolitical
player.
This is what is at stake in the current Global Hybrid War.
"It was a tumultuous week in the world of hydraulic fracturing ("fracking")
for shale oil and gas, with a few of the biggest companies in the U.S. announcing
temporary shutdowns at their drilling operations in various areas until
oil prices rise again from the ashes."
And if the sordid news for the frackers were not bleak enough on the bottoming
out of oil prices, David Hughes - a former oil industry geoscientist and
current fellow with the Post Carbon Institute - recently delivered sworn
testimony to the North Carolina Utilities Commission that shale gas production
will peak in 2017 nationwide and then begin a rapid productivity decline.
"... The meeting of oil-producing countries will be held on March 20th in Russia, the Minister of oil of Nigeria, Emmanuel Kachikwu, announced. According to him, it will be attended by representatives of countries who are OPEC members and countries that are not members in the organization. Mr. Kachikwu noted that producers seek to restore oil prices to $50 per barrel ..."
here is some good news. You have heard it first from me here on POB 2 weeks ago. We are moving
in direction of restoring the prices to acceptable level that major producers can live temporarily.
"The meeting of oil-producing countries will be held on March 20th in Russia, the Minister
of oil of Nigeria, Emmanuel Kachikwu, announced. According to him, it will be attended by representatives
of countries who are OPEC members and countries that are not members in the organization. Mr.
Kachikwu noted that producers seek to restore oil prices to $50 per barrel."
"... Instead, it reprieved the fading remnants of the military-industrial-congressional complex, the neocon interventionist camp and Washingtons legions of cold war apparatchiks. All of the foregoing would have been otherwise consigned to the dust bin of history. ..."
"... The Saudis geopolitical goal is to contain the economic and political power of the kingdoms principal rival, Iran, a Shiite state, and close ally of Bashar Assad. The Saudi monarchy viewed the U.S.-sponsored Shiite takeover in Iraq (and, more recently, the termination of the Iran trade embargo) as a demotion to its regional power status and was already engaged in a proxy war against Tehran in Yemen, highlighted by the Saudi genocide against the Iranian backed Houthi tribe. ..."
"... But the Sunni kingdoms with vast petrodollars at stake wanted a much deeper involvement from America. On September 4, 2013, Secretary of State John Kerry told a congressional hearing that the Sunni kingdoms had offered to foot the bill for a U.S. invasion of Syria to oust Bashar Assad. In fact, some of them have said that if the United States is prepared to go do the whole thing, the way weve done it previously in other places [Iraq], theyll carry the cost. Kerry reiterated the offer to Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.): With respect to Arab countries offering to bear the costs of [an American invasion] to topple Assad, the answer is profoundly yes, they have. The offer is on the table. ..."
"... Gazproms gas exports to Europe – including Turkey – had increased to 158.6 billion cubic meters in 2015 with a 8.2 percent increase compared to 2014 ..."
Stockman's Tales of western intervention into the ME Oil Puzzle.
"The Trumpster Sends The GOP/Neocon Establishment To The Dumpster"
"And most certainly, this lamentable turn to the War Party's disastrous reign had nothing to do
with oil security or economic prosperity in America. The cure for high oil is always and everywhere
high oil prices, not the Fifth Fleet"
It goes all the way back to the collapse of the old Soviet Union and the elder Bush's historically
foolish decision to invade the Persian Gulf in February 1991. The latter stopped dead in its
tracks the first genuine opportunity for peace the people of the world had been afforded since
August 1914.
Instead, it reprieved the fading remnants of the military-industrial-congressional complex,
the neocon interventionist camp and Washington's legions of cold war apparatchiks. All of the
foregoing would have been otherwise consigned to the dust bin of history.
Yet at that crucial inflection point there was absolutely nothing at stake with respect
to the safety and security of the American people in the petty quarrel between Saddam Hussein
and the Emir of Kuwait.
Having alienated Iraq and Syria, Kim Roosevelt fled the Mideast to work as an executive
for the oil industry that he had served so well during his public service career at the CIA.
Roosevelt's replacement as CIA station chief, James Critchfield, attempted a failed assassination
plot against the new Iraqi president using a toxic handkerchief, according to Weiner. Five
years later, the CIA finally succeeded in deposing the Iraqi president and installing the Ba'ath
Party in power in Iraq. A charismatic young murderer named Saddam Hussein was one of the distinguished
leaders of the CIA's Ba'athist team.
… … …
The EU, which gets 30 percent of its gas from Russia, was equally hungry for the pipeline,
which would have given its members cheap energy and relief from Vladimir Putin's stifling economic
and political leverage. Turkey, Russia's second largest gas customer, was particularly anxious
to end its reliance on its ancient rival and to position itself as the lucrative transect hub
for Asian fuels to EU markets. The Qatari pipeline would have benefited Saudi Arabia's conservative
Sunni monarchy by giving it a foothold in Shia-dominated Syria. The Saudis' geopolitical goal
is to contain the economic and political power of the kingdom's principal rival, Iran, a Shiite
state, and close ally of Bashar Assad. The Saudi monarchy viewed the U.S.-sponsored Shiite
takeover in Iraq (and, more recently, the termination of the Iran trade embargo) as a demotion
to its regional power status and was already engaged in a proxy war against Tehran in Yemen,
highlighted by the Saudi genocide against the Iranian backed Houthi tribe.
Of course, the Russians, who sell 70 percent of their gas exports to Europe, viewed the
Qatar/Turkey pipeline as an existential threat. In Putin's view, the Qatar pipeline is a NATO
plot to change the status quo, deprive Russia of its only foothold in the Middle East, strangle
the Russian economy and end Russian leverage in the European energy market. In 2009, Assad
announced that he would refuse to sign the agreement to allow the pipeline to run through Syria
"to protect the interests of our Russian ally."
… … …
But the Sunni kingdoms with vast petrodollars at stake wanted a much deeper involvement
from America. On September 4, 2013, Secretary of State John Kerry told a congressional hearing
that the Sunni kingdoms had offered to foot the bill for a U.S. invasion of Syria to oust Bashar
Assad. "In fact, some of them have said that if the United States is prepared to go do the
whole thing, the way we've done it previously in other places [Iraq], they'll carry the cost."
Kerry reiterated the offer to Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.): "With respect to Arab countries
offering to bear the costs of [an American invasion] to topple Assad, the answer is profoundly
yes, they have. The offer is on the table."
"The EU, which gets 30 percent of its gas from Russia, was equally hungry for the pipeline, which
would have given its members cheap energy and relief from Vladimir Putin's stifling economic and
political leverage."
That is nonsense. The issue is that Russia has quite limited leverage: They can not replace
the European customers on short notice – pipeline chain producer to certain customers – and they
urgently need the income.
The more interesting question for Russia is how to cope with a customers who may reduce the
demand for NG by 1% per year for the next few decades.
"The issue is that Russia has quite limited leverage: They can not replace the European customers
on short notice"
Leverage is always mutual in the gas trade that involves long term contracts and long gas supply
lines. It is like marriage :-)
"The more interesting question for Russia is how to cope with a customers who may reduce the
demand for NG by 1% per year for the next few decades."
I am not sure that this is the case.
"Gazprom's gas exports to Europe – including Turkey – had increased to 158.6 billion cubic
meters in 2015 with a 8.2 percent increase compared to 2014."
Looks like Russian bear after being hit in the head and robbed at gun point starts slow awakening
from hibernation. The honchos of Russian oil companies are now officially onboard for the freeze
and some of them want more drastic measures. They have a discussion of "stabilization of Russian
economy" (which means stabilization of oil prices) with President Putin, which means that Putin
got his marching orders from oil oligarchs, some of which wants "quid pro quo" from the
government (not to increase taxes on oil despite budget deficit). Details are scarce. But previously
hapless head of Rosneft Igor Sechin lamented about the situation he drove his company into, being
completely unprepared to the oil price crush. May be he got promises of additional loans to keep
the company afoot.
Generally Russian performance in this crises leaves to me the impression of complete incompetence
on high level. Especially unimpressive is Alexander Novak – the Russian Minister of Energy. He
speaks like a typical neoliberal. This is when more centralized economy should score points and
they instead were taken for the ride and continued to buy the US Treasuries. Why not to buy Russia
oil for the strategic reserve instead, like China did ? I think Russia still does not have any
state strategic oil reserves (the only major country in such a position).
President Vladimir Putin and the heads of major Russian oil companies discussed implementation
of decisive measures to stabilize the Russian economy in view of increased volatility of world
markets.
As a start Russia is ready to join the group of countries within and outside OPEC, which approved
the proposal to freeze the level of production of oil in 2016 at January level. Such production
limits can be implemented by a joint agreement of key countries, that is already was put on table
on Feb 16, 2016 by Saudis, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela and now is at the stage of multilateral
discussion with other oil exporting countries. The final decision is expected somewhere in March
on a new meeting of Ministers of oil producing countries.
This meeting at the Kremlin was chaired by Vladimir Putin and was attended by all key representatives
of the Russian oil industry - the Chairman of the Board of "LUKOIL" Vagit Alekperov, the General
Director "Surgutneftegaz" Vladimir Bogdanov, the head of Board "Gazprom oil" Alexander Dyukov,
the President of the company "Bashneft" Alexander Korsik, the General Director of Zarubezhneft
Sergey Kudryashov, the head of "Tatneft" Nail Maganov, President of "Rosneft" Igor Sechin, the
head of the Independent oil and gas company Eduard Khudainatov.
In addition, the Russian minister of energy Alexander Novak and the head of the presidential
administration Sergei Ivanov, as well as aide to President Putin Andrei Belousov also participated
in this meeting.
This year Alexander Novak held a series of meetings with Ministers of oil-producing countries.
In February, the negotiations in the Qatari capital and it was proposed to fix the production
at the level of January. In January, Russia produced 46,006 million metric tons of oil with gas
condensate. This is 1.5% more than in January 2015. Average daily production amounted to 10.9
million barrels.
Before the meeting, when everybody was sitting at the table, Vladimir Putin held a short private
consultation with Alexander Novak. After that Putin opened the meeting with the following statement:
"As the Minister reported to me, some of you have more radical suggestions (for the countries
- exporters of oil. - Izvestia) for the stabilization of oil markets, but about this particular
measure (fixation of production at the level of January. - "The news") as I understand something
close to a consensus already exists.
The purpose of our meeting today is to hear from each of the heads of the companies represented
here personally the opinion of each of you on the subject of the discussion. How do you really
feel about the current situation and measures that need to be taken ?"
CEOs of major Russian companies remained silent while journalists were present. Only the General
Director "Tatneft" Nail Maganov and Chairman of the Board "Gazprom oil" Alexander Dyukov start
grinning, because these companies in January of this year recorded a growth of production relative
to January of last year (by 4.2% and 5.6% respectively, according to the Central Department of
Control of Fuel and Energy Complex).
After those introductory remarks journalists were asked to leave the meeting.
The meeting did not last long. After the meeting ended, Minister Alexander Novak in a press
conference said to journalists that all heads the Russian companies who were present supported
this international initiative. He stated that:
The implementation of this freeze should give a positive impulse on oil markets. It increases
the predictability of behaviors of key market participants, which should lead to the reduction
of volatility…
Today, the total surplus of world oil production is estimated to be around 1.5 million barrels
per day. If you freeze the level of production on the level of January, 2016 and the demand
increases by 1.3 million to 1.5 million barrels a day, the oversupply in the market will be
eliminated at the end of the year. And we already saw some signs of stabilization of the market
after this measure was announced.
Alexander Novak also noted that this freeze may not only reduce price volatility but also shorten
the period of depressed oil prices to the end of 2016, when in his opinion oil prices can return
to the $50-60 per barrel range. He noted that as of today 15 oil producing countries have publicly
declared his readiness to sign the agreement.
According to the Minister, they represent around 73% of world oil production. The exact format
of the agreement, in which the key is the method of monitoring of compliance, is yet to be determined.
The sighing of the freeze agreement can happen at another meeting of oil ministers in March.
According to Alexander Novak, even if Iran does not join the agreement, the market will still
stabilize, as Iran still has a very low level of production and can't increase it fast. Due to
this countries-signers of the agreement can make an exception for Iran and increase its ceiling
over the January 2016 level.
Freezing production at least will stop flooding the market with new volumes of oil in the delusionary
pursuit of "market share", commented on the event the analyst of FC "Discovery Broker" Andrei
Kochetkov. It will more be influenced by the financial strength of companies and countries as
well as the real costs of production from the depleting fields. On average, traditional oil wells
lose 3-5% of production volume each year, he said. Accordingly, if the flow of new investments
in the field slow down to a halt, the global market might lose another 3-4 million barrels per
day of the production at the end of the year. This drop even if less drastic as stated will increase
the pressure on oil prices said the expert.
There should not be any major problem for Russian companies with freezing the production of
oil on January, 2016 level said the head of the analytical company of the Small Letters Vitaly
Kryukov. We should not fear that this measure damage our fields, given that in Western Siberia
production continues to fall, he said.
That, of course, might lead to less drilling in some places but will not affect the commissioning
of new projects that were under construction. For example, LUKOIL is expected to launch new projects
this year in the Caspian sea, but at the same time they are quickly losing the volume of production
in Western Siberia.
The second topic discussed at the meeting with the President was the taxation of Russian oil
companies. The heads of the companies have asked the head of state in the medium term, not to
raise taxes and to keep the current system of taxation while the current turmoil with oil prices
exist. In his after the meeting interview Alexander Novak stated that Vladimir Putin is now aware
about the position of the heads of Russian oil companies on this subject, but this issue still
needs to be discussed inside the government.
"... Once this project is completed DECC will be able to better quantify system costs to inform policy decisions. Any future policy development, such as future renewable support, will be informed by the improved evidence base developed through this project . ..."
"... The additional costs of having variable generation on the system are low and for the most part renewable generators already pay these costs, said Renewable UKs director of policy, Dr Gordon Edge. If were going to talk about system costs, then we also need to talk about the undoubted economic benefits that wind generators also bring, he added. ..."
"... At a White House meeting between the CIAs director of plans, Frank Wisner, and John Foster Dulles, in September 1957, Eisenhower advised the agency, We should do everything possible to stress the holy war aspect, according to a memo recorded by his staff secretary, Gen. Andrew J. Goodpaster. ..."
"... When oil is selling for below its full life cycle production cost; when the industrys revenue has fallen by $2.3 trillion per year in the last two years; when the Saudis are borrowing money to pay their bills; when the nation with the largest petroleum resource on the planet cant afford toilet paper for its citizens; when hundreds of US producers are going out of business; when the world is using petroleum eight times faster than it is finding it; when the Etp Model said that this was going to happen years ago -– yep, I believe it. ..."
Nor, for that matter, of peak coal or gas. Fossil fuels, said to be on the path for an effective
demise in the rich world later this century, will actually continue to fulfil the major part of our
energy needs for the foreseeable future. So says the latest
BP Energy Outlook
.
... ... ...
...As oil prices dropped steeply in 2014, the once-dominant OPEC producers kept the taps open,
looking to maintain market share in the face of surging US competition, rather than cutting production
to force prices up. However, the forecasters were wrong in this case as well. Rather than decimating
the North American shale oil producers, the weaker ones went to the wall but many carried on pumping.
The costs of fracking (and re-fracking) and drilling multiple horizontal wells from a single well-head
had come down to a point at which losses were bearable, albeit further drilling was discouraged.
Breakeven cost for US oil in general is about $36 per barrel, although the average for shale is around
$58 (see
breakeven cost for top oil exporters
). The figure for Saudi Arabia, in contrast, is just $9.90.
Nevertheless, the consequences of continuing low oil prices are worse for Middle Eastern countries
and other 'cheap' oil producers because their economies are also heavily dependent on oil exports.
So, while a single industrial sector may take a hammering in the USA, Saudi Arabia needs about $105/barrel
to balance its budget (
Fiscal breakeven cost for the top oil-dependent economies
). For such countries, the economic
and social costs could be severe, while shale oil production can be scaled back but then quickly
revived when the market picks up.
On a more parochial note, plans in EU member states for continued expansion of renewable energy
were based on a projected reducing need for subsidies as conventional energy prices rose steadily.
Now, however, it begins to look as though subsidies will escalate for the foreseeable future. In
the UK, for example, the realities of photovoltaics having very limited potential at such a high
latitude and the building of more onshore wind farms meeting continued resistance from local communities
has made offshore wind an increasingly attractive proposition politically.
Politically attractive maybe, but hardly so economically. As last week's newsletter pointed out,
offshore wind farm operators are being offered energy prices of at least £115 per MWh, over £20 more
than the much-criticised strike price for electricity from the proposed Hinkley C nuclear plant (
(Guaranteed) power to the people
). Even these inflated prices, paid for by consumers, don't take account of the additional costs
of transmission, grid strengthening and conventional backup.
The result is a rethink of at least some aspects of the subsidy regime and a somewhat lukewarm
attitude to renewables in the UK (although Germany seemingly is set to push ahead with yet more wind
and solar, seemingly oblivious to the negative consequences of the policy instruments chosen: replacement
of clean and flexible gas by new lignite stations). The much-vaunted prospects of carbon capture
and storage (CCS), always just over the horizon and apparently destined to remain so, has had yet
another false start as funding for a demonstration project has been pulled.
Even the renewable energy industry itself if not united.
Power firm Drax urges biomass
subsidy rethink puts the case for biomass being a more cost-effective option than other renewables,
taking into account additional costs not normally included in the headline figures. The £105 per
MWh paid to Drax for energy generated mainly from imported American wood pellets is certainly higher
than the maximum of £82.50 paid for the latest onshore wind farms. However, an analysis conducted
for the energy generator by NERA Economic Consulting and Imperial College argues that the overall
cost to consumers of decarbonisation could be £2bn lower if biomass power stations were allowed to
bid for new renewable energy contracts.
The precise figures can be criticised, but the thrust of the argument is undeniable: the only
valid way of comparing competing technologies is to analyse the overall system cost. The Department
of Energy and Climate Change is said to be looking into the use of whole system costing, with work
due to finish shortly. According to energy minister Angela Leadsom, "Once this project is completed
DECC will be able to better quantify system costs to inform policy decisions. Any future policy development,
such as future renewable support, will be informed by the improved evidence base developed through
this project".
Let's hope so. The wind and solar industries will doubtless put up strong resistance, because
the higher-than-reported overall costs of their technologies is a secret they would rather was not
made public. We can expect to hear much more of this kind of thing: "The additional costs of
having variable generation on the system are low and for the most part renewable generators already
pay these costs," said Renewable UK's director of policy, Dr Gordon Edge. "If we're going to talk
about system costs, then we also need to talk about the undoubted economic benefits that wind generators
also bring," he added.
What those 'undoubted economic benefits may be to those other than the foreign-owned suppliers
of wind turbines and photovoltaic panels, we wait to find out.
The massive global debt bubble is the surest sign yet that we have reached peak oil. Without
growth in oil production, there can not be economic growth.
Debt was used to buy today's oil yesterday. Facilitated by cheap credit, we are currently producing
tomorrow's oil today. Tomorrow's oil, the last of the easy stuff, will have been depleted and
the debts will not only have not been paid but, will have gotten bigger.
Peak oil mates, peak oil. This is it. We are living it now. As I have stated previously, those
that deny peak oil do not understand it.
Plantagenet on Sat, 27th Feb 2016 8:48 pm
As long as global oil production continues to go up, we are not at peak oil.
We'll see a global peak in oil production sometime in the next 10 years, but we aren't quite
there yet.
CHEERS!
Harquebus on Sat, 27th Feb 2016 9:32 pm
Yeah but, oils ain't necessarily oils.
A lot of oil production is called oil but, it isn't sold on the oil market so, it isn't really
oil.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sat, 27th Feb 2016 9:45 pm
Global oil production is down. July 2015 exceeds January 2016. And it will continue to decline
as we go forward.
Apneaman on Sat, 27th Feb 2016 9:53 pm
Yergin's a fuctard cheerleader and any prize can be bought. Pulitzer – Big fucking deal. Obama
has a Nobel and drone bombs babies and their mommas daily.
Apneaman on Sat, 27th Feb 2016 10:01 pm
Middle Eastern Wars Have ALWAYS Been about Oil
"Robert Kennedy Jr. notes:
For Americans to really understand what's going on, it's important to review some details about
this sordid but little-remembered history. During the 1950s, President Eisenhower and the Dulles
brothers - CIA Director Allen Dulles and Secretary of State John Foster Dulles - rebuffed Soviet
treaty proposals to leave the Middle East a neutral zone in the Cold War and let Arabs rule Arabia.
Instead, they mounted a clandestine war against Arab nationalism - which Allen Dulles equated
with communism - particularly when Arab self-rule threatened oil concessions.
They pumped secret
American military aid to tyrants in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon favoring puppets with
conservative Jihadist ideologies that they regarded as a reliable antidote to Soviet Marxism [and
those that possess a lot of oil].
At a White House meeting between the CIA's director of plans,
Frank Wisner, and John Foster Dulles, in September 1957, Eisenhower advised the agency, "We should
do everything possible to stress the 'holy war' aspect," according to a memo recorded by his staff
secretary, Gen. Andrew J. Goodpaster."
Rising debt might be a sign of approaching peak oil – excess energy is diminishing and therefore
unable to general excess capital production in society in order to pay interest and principal.
But in and of itself Debt is not definitive. Even if the return on energy were between 1 and
0 (costs more input than you get out), which would result in ginormous debts, but we could still
produce more total volume on a consistent basis, by the standard definition, no peakum oilum.
Now, its been at least six years that many have suggested we need to change the definition
of peak oil to mean: amount of Net Energy Available (from oil) to Society (nate hagens, et al).
And from that perspective, we've almost certainly reached peak net available energy or peak oil.
the question also about the different "liquids" going into the number is a solid question.
Will any of these questions make a difference to the MSM or doubters on this site? No.
rockman on Sat, 27th Feb 2016 10:53 pm
And again if folks keep allowing themselves to be baited into debates about PO dates and the
silly position that supply won't always meet demand (which it will thanks to the modulation effect
of pricing) then the reality of the complexity of the Peak Oil Dynamic will be ignored.
Just consider how few citizens don't understand that the current low oil prices are a result
of the diminishing capacity to develop meaningful new long term reserves.
shortonoil on Sun, 28th Feb 2016 7:07 am
"Breakeven cost for US oil in general is about $36 per barrel, although the average for
shale is around $58 (see breakeven cost for top oil exporters). The figure for Saudi Arabia, in
contrast, is just $9.90."
Crude stayed in the $100 range for almost four years. According to the quote above the industry
was making incredible profits during that period; so incredible that one would have to be an absolute
idiot to believe it? At $36 the profit margin on gross sales would have been 278%. On $58 it would
have been 172%, and on $9.90 it would have been 1010%.
That very easily explains how the Shale industry managed to accumulate over a $1 trillion in
debt to build annual sales of $360 billion. A 172% profit margin on gross sales will do that using
a combination of the New Math, and some very creative accounting. These guys are quoting EBITDA
numbers, not break even numbers. Of course, they think they have enough stupid, credulous readers
that they can get away with it.
Put it in print, and someone is dumb enough to believe it!
eugene on Sun, 28th Feb 2016 9:31 am
Another of the endless debates amongst people with little or no knowledge of the energy situation
but lots of opinions with each convinced their opinion is absolutely the correct one. I'd add
mine but I'm just an old man sitting in the woods with an "opinion" based on very limited knowledge.
One thing I do "know", oil is vital to our lifestyle and is a finite resource of which we have
extracted most of the cheap, easy stuff so will have to produce ever more expensive stuff. I like
the word "stuff" as it appears to me the definition of oil is changing according to the agenda
of the person speaking.
onlooker on Sun, 28th Feb 2016 11:21 am
"Just consider how few citizens don't understand that the current low oil prices are a result
of the diminishing capacity to develop meaningful new long term reserves." But some even here
say it is a glut. Hahaha. Funny isn't Rockman. Oh and for those who may not know Rockman is in
the Oil business he is not just some armchair pundit.
shortonoil on Sun, 28th Feb 2016 11:49 am
When the world is burning 32 Gb per year, and discovering 4Gb to replace the 32 it just used,
you apparently have a "glut". Is that the result of how you use your Facebook account? Maybe its
a Twitter brain thing?
onlooker on Sun, 28th Feb 2016 12:09 pm
Short thanks. Another person in the trenches. Not some denier, BAU cheerleader or shill. Because
they are the only ones harping on how Shale/Tar will bring about a revolution of new energy. Of
those 4Gb, I wonder now much of that per year we will even be able to bring to market. I think
depletion and the fizziling out of LTO will make in short term a mockery of the so called glut
and its advocates.
"The Cambridge Network is a commercial business networking organisation for business people
and academics[1][2] working in technology fields in the Cambridge area of the UK."
"Activities[edit] The organisation's mission is "We raise the game for business in Cambridge, and through that we
try to raise the game for economic growth in the UK."
Looker – I wish I didn't have to result to an worn anology but it works so perfectly: the blind
men trying to ID an elephant by each analyzing individual parts of the critter. PO (or more correctly
the POD…peak oil dynamic) is more than the date of global max oil production, storage volumes
at Cushing, KSA production levels, debt incurred by the US shale players, frac'ng costs, US oil
exports, a lot of dilbit made with Eagle Ford condensate, etc, etc, etc.
It's no different the
arguing that critter is a snake because only it's trunk has been analyzed. We see the same approach
here: PO isn't a factors because we see XXX or PO is the end of life as we know it because YYY
is happening.
Some don't like the POD because it's to inclusive. Which is the same as saying we shouldn't
study the entire anatomy of the elephant in order to ID it because that data is "too inclusive".
As I've stated before: the oil price spike which lead to the shale boom which led to increased
US oil production while cooling the global economy and leading to consumers who were unable/unwilling
to pay more then $40 per bbl which led to a drastic decline of shale rigs and a slew of oil companies
pushed to and over the brink of failure: collectively these events along with others indicate
to true nature of the PO dynamic.
At this point if one can't grasp the entire picture I doubt
they ever will.
IOW it's a f*cking elephant. LOL.
onlooker on Sun, 28th Feb 2016 2:58 pm
Thanks for the clear explanation of recent peak oil dynamics Rock. I being a layman have tried
to understand what is going on relative to PO and other matters affecting the planet as the least
we can do is know what the heck is really going on in the world we live. Now if they still don't
understand then they are dense or have an agenda.
shortonoil on Sun, 28th Feb 2016 3:17 pm
"Short thanks. Another person in the trenches."
When oil is selling for below its full life cycle production cost; when the industry's revenue
has fallen by $2.3 trillion per year in the last two years; when the Saudis are borrowing money
to pay their bills; when the nation with the largest petroleum resource on the planet can't afford
toilet paper for its citizens; when hundreds of US producers are going out of business; when the
world is using petroleum eight times faster than it is finding it; when the Etp Model said that
this was going to happen years ago -– yep, I believe it.
It's not that hard to get your head wrapped around, unless your head is made out of concrete.
Anonymous on Sun, 28th Feb 2016 3:37 pm
That was my point Ape
The word 'Cambridge' is intended to be associated with Cambridge University. Thus=Academic,
credible source.
And 'Science' of course, is pretty self explanatory. It is there to reinforce the 'Cambridge'
association.
Sort of doubling up on the implications that this source is a credible, rational, impartical
scientific org. (LOL). And not,(its hopeed) as you point out, basically, a high sounding cheerleader
for UK commercial energy corporations. And others I am sure…
makati1 on Sun, 28th Feb 2016 7:01 pm
Recent signs of oil's peak…
"Global Trade Is Collapsing--Chinese Exports To Brazil Down 60% In January Y/Y; All Containerized
Shipments To LatAm Down 50%" "Bond Vigilantes Push $258 Billion of Oil Debt Past Junk"
"Halliburton to cut 5,000 jobs in new round of layoffs" "Slashing Start for European Energy Sector"
"Apache Slashes 2016 Budget By More Than Half, Sees Lower Output" "World outside US and Canada doesn't produce more crude oil than in 2005"
"Shale Oil Architect Predicts Doom for Some Drillers Amid Slump" "UK Oil Industry At The "Edge Of A Chasm"
"Mansion sales and discount dining: oil rout hits Houston's rich" "Watch Five Years of Oil Drilling Collapse in Seconds"
And for chuckles: " Former Mexican President To Donald Trump: 'I'm Not Gonna Pay For That [Expletive] Wall,' Vicente
Fox Says" "Clinton Defends Ongoing Anarchy In Libya: We Are Still In Korea, We Are Still In Germany"
Looks like Russian oil minister decided to play the role of a regular supply and demand jerk, may
be intentionally. Generally Russians unlike Chinese's behaved like idiots in this situation. Inread
of building state petroleum reserves like Chinese did and later selling oil later at reasonable prices
they continued to dump the oil on market helping Saudis to crash the price. Russia is still buying US
treasures instead as if oil is not as reliable as currency. Russia is the only major country that does
not have strategic oil reserves.
Alexander Novak mostly sounded like a regular member of the neoliberal cosmopolitan elite not as
a Russian oil minister who is interested in well-being of Russian citizens. As Soros aptly mentioned
such people have more in common with Wall Street financial oligarchs that with interests
of their own country.
Whether this was intentional of this is a his assumed position for Die Welt I do no know.
Notable quotes:
"... Given the pricing environment we expect in 2016 further reductions of 15-40%. Thus, this year 30 largest companies in the world can cut $200 billion from capex budgets . At the same time, we see that rise in in the price of the credit for oil producers in the US hinders their access to financial markets. ..."
"... On a global scale in the short term, these effects will be minimal. However, in the medium and long term they will be dramatic, because many of the cancelled projects were important for stability of oil supply from the point of view of growing global demand, have been postponed or frozen. So we can assumed that after 2020 a stable supply of oil is under threat. In this regard, Russia seeks to remain a stable supplier of oil globally. ..."
24.02.2016 | Die Welt/InoSMI
Russia is suffering from extremely low oil prices. Energy Minister Alexander Novak warned us
against the dramatic consequences of falling oil prices for the entire world. After the oversupply
of oil, according to him, a severe deficit is coming.
Die Welt: You have agreed with the oil Minister of Saudi Arabia on the limitation of oil
production. At first the market reacted to the results of your negotiations negativity and oil prices
continued to fall. What, in general, gives us this arrangement?
Alexander Novak: I Think our meeting with the colleagues from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela
were very productive. The main result was a preliminary agreement on limiting oil production in 2016
at the level of January of this year. The final decision will be made when this initiative will join
most other oil producers. In our view, this approach would gradually reduce the oversupply and stabilize
prices at a level that will ensure the stability of the industry in the long term.
- Let's assume that others will agree with this. However, experts believe that price stabilization
is necessary not just freeze, and a reduction in oil production.
- Such proposals are periodically received. But we think that this may soon lead to an abrupt
artificial increase in prices. Because such a rise in prices entails the inflow of speculative
money into capital-intensive projects, for example, in the production of shale oil that, in turn,
will lead to rapid increase of oil production and as a result another round of oil prices fall. Of
crucial importance is the level of prices at which US shale oil is unprofitable. If the oil price
moved higher higher, we will again be faced with the effect of plummeting oil prices. That is why
we need mutual consultation in order better to access the current supply and demand situation.
- But the decline in prices over the last 18 months ago is already having a serious negative
impact on producers with higher costs.
- Yes, albeit slower than expected. This is a change from previous oil price cycles, when only
the oil exporting countries influenced the market by voluntarily reducing the production. But after
the invention of the technology for shale gas extraction in 2009, the situation has changed.
- So you agree with the International energy Agency, believes that in 2016, contrary to expectations,
oil prices stabilize?
- In general yes. Because when in mid-2014 oil prices began to decline, many thought that soon
shale oil will fall prey of it. However, this did not happen. We can see that the price at around
$100 per barrel was too high, but shale oil companies for more then a year managed to withstood the
falling oil prices and continue oil extraction is volumes comparable with the volume at peak.
Demand and supply grow equally, and the gap between them did not became smaller. That's why in 2016
everyone is adjusting their predictions about the end of low oil prices regime.
Limited access to funding by high cost producers and delay in implementation of capital intensive
projects will play a role in the alignment of supply and demand in the market and the volume of oil
production outside OPEC, primarily in North America, will be reduced. For example, in the US, the
number of drilling rigs already has declined by two-thirds.
- Not only in the United States. All the world's leading oil companies reduced their investment
programs by 10-35%. What reductions we can expect in 2016?
- Given the pricing environment we expect in 2016 further reductions of 15-40%. Thus, this
year 30 largest companies in the world can cut $200 billion from capex budgets . At the same time,
we see that rise in in the price of the credit for oil producers in the US hinders their access to
financial markets.
- What can be the consequences of reducing investments in the foreseeable future?
- On a global scale in the short term, these effects will be minimal. However, in the medium
and long term they will be dramatic, because many of the cancelled projects were important
for stability of oil supply from the point of view of growing global demand, have been postponed
or frozen. So we can assumed that after 2020 a stable supply of oil is under threat. In this regard,
Russia seeks to remain a stable supplier of oil globally.
- Can Russia to help stabilize prices, "selling" to OPEC and other major producers the
idea to reduce production?
- We haven't made exact calculations. For Russia, this is a difficult question due to the technological
aspects of oil extraction, the current state of the projects under construction and climatic conditions.
You can understand our situation from a simple fact: Russia has more than 170 thousand wells, and
to reduce their number very difficult. And in the middle East much less wells: Saudi Arabia produces
the same amount of oil as we do, with only 3500 wells. In addition, our oil companies are independent
joint-stock companies which are independently planning the level of their own production.
- The head of the second largest Russian oil company LUKOIL Vagit Alekperov said recently that
the Russian oil sector is most afraid that the government will change tax rules for him.
- I share the opinion of the head of the Lukoil concern. We needs a stable tax system. Oil prices,
along with the ruble and so fell and to this created for oil companies the problems of financing
of the oil extraction. If in addition we change the rules of taxation, the future would
become impossible to predict and the companies would be unable to plan their activities for more
then one year. We in the last two years had introduced some tax breaks which should encourage the
production at new fields in Eastern Siberia and the far East. Their effect is already noticeable:
in 2015, we got from those fields additional 60 million tons.
- And in the Arctic region?
- This region now is off-limit due to the costs. But the investments in the extraction of Okhotsk
and Caspian seas have risen because they are attractive from the point of view of taxation. In the
long run we are - regardless of the dynamics of oil prices - will have to change the tax system.
Together with the Ministry of Finance we will develop in the course of this year proposals.
- Russia, as you know, is struggling with declining production in current fields. If the investment
will be reduced, won't this mean that in 2017 the volume of oil production will fail?
- Much will depend on the situation with oil prices and the ruble exchange rate. All our major
companies confirm that they will be able to maintain production at the current fields at the current
level. However, at the current oil prices, investment in new projects will be reduced - at least
by 20-30%.
- In the medium to long term additional load on unconventional and expensive projects will
fall and Western sanctions. How noticeable the effect of them now?
- Impact on overall production is extremely small. In the last two years we have extracted from
these "difficult" fields were we do need western technology just 18 million tons, or around
3% of our total production. The growth of their share is a matter of the future.
- However, without the Western technologies to achieve it will be difficult.
- I expect the opposite effect. Since our companies cannot cooperate with the West in this
area, they had to do this work independently and to develop new technologies in Russia.
- Let me get this straight: in the next few years Russia can't eliminate technological handicap
with the West. This will not work.
At least, we achieve our goals. In three years we seriously upgraded the level of our current
technology. Professionals, scientific and practical basis of all that we have. Many companies are
working on it.
- As for the gas sector, the European Commission seeks to obtain access to all of the gas contracts.
What is that in your shows?
- It's hard for me to comment on it. We believe that commercial contracts are a matter between
the two companies.
- Are you concerned about the behaviour of the EU?
- European authorities want the contract on deliveries was coordinated by the European Commission.
However, many countries disagree. Much will depend on them.
- Differences between the EU and Gazprom have a long tradition. For a long time Gazprom attitude
to the EU's was aggressive and disrespectful. Now his tone was softer. How do you evaluate the bilateral
relations at the moment?
- We believe that Russia is a reliable supplier and that the relationship is beneficial to both
parties. Thus the entire current infrastructure was created. Now, however, we have to expand
it taking into account the fact that production in Europe will decrease and demand will increase.
But differences remain. Can we call the position of Europe a constructive policy ?
- Political aspects now take precedence over the economic aspect of natural gas and oil supplies.
So, for political reasons the project "South stream" was blocked . For political reasons, there
are attempts to prevent the expansion of Nord stream. It is obvious that the construction of the
first two lines of the "Nord stream" conformed to European legal norms. However, the attitude
to the two new branches is different. In addition, we see that in the new energy strategy of the
EU does n mention relations with Russia. How can this be considering the fact that we are the main
supplier of energy to EU? We hope, however, that pragmatism will prevail. We need to develop relations
based on mutual interests, guarantees and long-term prospects.
- I can assume that you are counting on the support of Germany to expand the "Nord stream".
- We presume that we are talking, primarily, about economic project. Major energy companies of
Europe are interested in him. Because this is a long term project. And we will compete with other
suppliers of natural and liquefied gas, which is the rate now.
It has been an historic week for the US energy market, as hot on the heels of US oil exports is the
first US LNG export cargo – leaving
from the Sabine Pass terminal. Yet while this is viewed as a game-changer for the US – as it
can now truly live up to its moniker as 'the Saudi Arabia of natural gas' – exports could
be just as big a game-changer for parts of Europe.
By reducing its reliance upon Russia, Europe
will not only see benefits from a pricing perspective, but it will also help limit the political
power that Russia holds over many countries. The chart below starkly illustrates Russia's dominance
in Europe, with a number of countries leaning on it for the majority of its gas needs.
In total, Russia supplies a third of Europe's natural gas. Nonetheless, some estimates suggest
that the US could
catch up with Russia within a decade in terms of exports into Europe. Estimates also suggest
that US exports could drop European LNG prices by 25% over the next two years. This benefit would
be widespread across the continent; Germany relies on Russia for half of its gas needs, Italy for
a third, while countries such as Bulgaria lean on Russia for the vast majority of its supplies.
Since the Gazprom long-favored pipeline project South Stream by the end of 2014 due to the European
resistance was abandoned, Russia tirelessly seeks for new Pipelinevarianten to secure its dominant
position in the lucrative European market. It also tries to hedge supplied. But suppied to Chinese
market are not so quick to occur.
From the point of view of the Russians, time is short, because the Kremlin and Gazprom have decided,
the problematic gas transit through Ukraine to Europe from 2019 to shut down, and on other routes
to redirect. The fundamental plan does not change, even if Russia's energy Minister last week in
an Interview with the "world" did not exclude "that part of the deliveries to continue over the Ukraine
is running".
As a substitute for South Stream was Russia has been an Alternative at the ready: the "Turkish
Stream" Pipeline should Gas through the Black sea and via Turkey to the EU border. But it has not
been more than a flash in the pan, because the project since the Russian-Turkish upheavals of the
past few months has been put on hold.
New Pipeline plans to increase the pressure on Brussels
The revival of the Poseidon Pipeline is therefore to become more important. Also as a Signal to
the Mediterranean countries. The namely were recently very angry about the Gazprom group, the majority
of its energy in the intended Expansion of the Nord Stream Baltic sea pipeline (Nord Stream 2) to
Germany to invest in it.
Nord Stream 2 should the Plan to the existing capacity of 110 billion cubic meters of double,
which the majority of Europe in particular Russian gas in Germany would arrive. For comparison: ITGI
Poseidon has the original concept after only eight billion cubic meters of capacity, equal to one
tenth of the German annual consumption. In total, Gazprom delivered in the previous year 158,56 billion
cubic meters of Gas to Europe and, thus, eight percent more than in the weak Exportjahr 2014.
For Nord Stream 2 has Gazprom, with Shell, BASF, E. on, very interesting to count and OMV five
leading European gas companies for a consortium and won the support of individual EU member States.
The EU Commission is, however, resists this project, because it is a violation of the EU energy Package,
and sees the dependence on Russian Gas supplies anyway would rather like to reduce. With the Poseidon
project would have Gazprom at least a small lever to the participants of Nord Stream 2 to get your
pressure in Brussels to increase.
"... And as I commented on another post, a couple of years ago Citi Research put the gross decline rate from existing US gas production at about 24%/year. This would be the rate of decline in the absence of new wells. Note that Louisiana showed a 20%/year net rate of decline in total marketed gas production from 2012 to 2014 (this was the net rate of decline after new wells were put on line). So, the Louisiana case history would seem to confirm the CIti estimate. ..."
"... The estimated volumetric loss of US gas production from existing wells, about 17 BCF/day per year, matches or exceeds the 2014 annual dry gas production of every country in the world, except for the US Russia (2014 BP data). ..."
Oilpro.com had an article about the EU importing LNG from the US and Australia, in order to reduce
their reliance on Russian gas. My response:
Based on production and consumption data through 2014 (BP), and ignoring changes in storage
volumes, in 2014 Russia had net natural gas exports of 16 BCF/day, Australia had net natural gas
exports of 2.5 BCF/day and the US had net natural gas imports of 3 BCF/day. So, as of 2014 anyway,
combined net natural gas exports from the US + Australia would be approximately zero.
And as I commented on another post, a couple of years ago Citi Research put the gross decline
rate from existing US gas production at about 24%/year. This would be the rate of decline in the
absence of new wells. Note that Louisiana showed a 20%/year net rate of decline in total marketed
gas production from 2012 to 2014 (this was the net rate of decline after new wells were put on
line). So, the Louisiana case history would seem to confirm the CIti estimate.
The estimated volumetric loss of US gas production from existing wells, about 17 BCF/day
per year, matches or exceeds the 2014 annual dry gas production of every country in the world,
except for the US & Russia (2014 BP data).
So, while the Marcellus/Utica Play has some very impressive wells, in round numbers it seems
likely that we need the productive equivalent of a new Marcellus Play every year, or the productive
equivalent of all of Qatar's gas production every year, just to offset the declines from existing
US wells–as the overall US rig count has declined about 70% from the rig counts we have seen in
recent years.
Economic hopes are rising in Armenia that the country can serve as a trade conduit for Iran now
that international sanctions against Tehran are being lifted.
Armenia has
long-standing
ties to Iran, and is a member
of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a factor that potentially increases its attractiveness
as a trade partner for Tehran. Yerevan is "an important avenue for both Iran to export through Armenia
into that large combined market [EEU], and as a platform for Western engagement in the now opening
Iranian market," noted Richard Giragosian, director of the non-governmental Regional Studies Center
in the Armenian capital, Yerevan.
The World Bank's country director for Armenia, Laura Bailey, told RFE/RL's Armenian service in
January that stalled energy partnerships
between Iran and Armenia could be the first sector to take off.
Indeed, National Iranian Gas Exports Company Managing Director Alireza Kameli announced on February
7 that Iran is considering increasing five-fold the 1 million cubic meters of gas it sends daily
to Armenia, state-run Iranian media reported. At the same time, plans for a new power line to increase
Armenia's electricity exports to Iran are developing.
The gas deal appears to fit into a larger, regional scheme. In December, quadripartite talks took
place during which Armenia, Iran, and the Black Sea countries of Georgia and Russia agreed to establish
a coordinating group on establishing an energy corridor linking the four countries.
"We should spare no efforts to connect the Persian Gulf with the Black Sea [via Georgia, Armenia's
northern neighbor]," Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan
in a January 24 phone conversation, Iran's MehrNews agency reported.
Negotiations already have occurred between Iran and the Georgian government about sending Iranian
gas to Georgia via Armenia, Iranian state media reported Kameli, the Iranian gas official, as saying
in early January.
Some Armenian experts are tempering their optimism with caution. Russian-owned companies control
an estimated 80 percent of Armenia's energy sector. Energy giant Gazprom runs the gas pipelines from
Iran and on to Georgia, and it tends to look askance at competitors who might try to muscle in on
their markets. At the same time, no clear sign has emerged that Moscow opposes an increase in Iranian
gas exports to Armenia. The Sputnik news agency, a Kremlin mouthpiece, promptly reported Kameli's
announcement on February 7.
Iranian affairs specialist Armen Vardanian at Yerevan's Armenian Institute of International and
Security Affairs believes that "Russia will embrace the projects that will not contradict its national
interests."
Shale economics have significantly changed over the last two years to worse
as depletion never sleeps
Notable quotes:
"... In my view shale economics have significantly changed over the last two
years. The monthly decline rate (see below chart) reached in the Eagle Ford oil
basin nearly 12%. ..."
"... Legacy decline is close to 150 kb/d and month since a few months now and
production is declining and currently stands at around 1.2 mill b/d. The above decline
rate is legacy decline divided by actual production. ..."
"... Of course the actual decline is lower as there is also production from
new wells, yet my chart shows the internal decline which has to be replaced by companies
and is just an indicator how fast the Red Queen has to run. ..."
"... It is in my view exactly the increasing demand for capital to keep oil
and gas production stable, which weakens the bond market, which then spills over
to the economy and stock market. As companies did not want to curb production voluntarily,
they are forced now to do so over a collapsing bond market. ..."
"... The real wall is when it takes 1 unit of energy to get 1 unit of energy
out. Ehh – no – that cant be. What equipment would they use to get that out? So
we need a functioning steel industry. We actually need a bit more than that. An
oil platform incorporates pretty much everything modern in this world, engines and
motors of all kinds. Computers. And we might want to get to the platform. So we
need some helicopters. A complicated machine. ..."
"... Depletion never sleeps. ..."
"... The 10% decline rate without continuous infill drilling is particularly
worrying. Mostly infill drilling accelerates production but does little for overall
capture (sometimes a bit of increase in recovery, but sometimes it can have the
opposite effect) so the more they are used the more the decline rate will increase
after the peak. I know the 10% figure is for offshore fields but a) this is not
encouraging for the prospects of deepwater development b) there have been recent
large infill drilling programs in Russia and ME – if the result is that their declines
tend towards 10% rather than 2 or 3 in the near term then look out. ..."
"... The export issue is also relevant to consider. Say a 10% reduction in production
would likely be a 20% reduction in export availability (maybe a bit more because
of EROI issues and growing domestic use, especially if wars and social unrest escalate)
– which would crush most European and a good few developing countries economies
even if they were looking reasonably healthy, which they obviously arent, and without
the ever increasing waves of refugees coming their way. ..."
In my view shale economics have significantly changed over the last
two years. The monthly decline rate (see below chart) reached in the Eagle
Ford oil basin nearly 12%.
Although Marcellus has somewhat stabilized and Utica, which is still
in its infancy, even improved, it is in my opinion just a matter of time
when decline rates increase for all shale plays.
This trend has not been baked into many economic and forecasting models
– quietly assuming constant decline rates – and comes now as a surprise
for many analysts and investors.
It comes from the EIA drilling report. Legacy decline is close to
150 kb/d and month since a few months now and production is declining and
currently stands at around 1.2 mill b/d. The above decline rate is legacy
decline divided by actual production.
Of course the actual decline is lower as there is also production
from new wells, yet my chart shows the internal decline which has to be
replaced by companies and is just an indicator how fast the 'Red Queen'
has to run.
It is in my view exactly the increasing demand for capital to keep
oil and gas production stable, which weakens the bond market, which then
spills over to the economy and stock market. As companies did not want to
curb production voluntarily, they are forced now to do so over a collapsing
bond market.
As Eagle Ford is one of the most mature plays, it serves in my opinion
as a blueprint for more recently started basins such as Marcellus and Utica.
Interested in this, as North Dakota's decline rate stalled (i.e. many years
stopped declining all together, or even grew) in October and November as
operators opened the chokes on their old wells.
This was completely predictable; I just didn't think it would slow down
by 2015/2016…I thought the head of steam might have lasted till ~ 2018-2021
or so.
Will the boom times come roaring back, bigger and crazier than ever?
None of us know.
What we do know: The Earth is finite, the amount of FFs in the ground
is finite, and depletion never sleeps, and the distribution of FF deposits
(size, frequency) seems to follow the power law…and the cost to raise each
bbl of oil and mcf of methane and ton of coal will continue to rise.
Barring a breakthrough which produces inexpensive, compact, ubiquitous
'Mr. Fusion' power reactors, the outlook looks bleak. Even with a 'Mr. Fusion'
breakthrough, other source and sink limits would end up eating humanity's
lunch if population increase was no slowed, stopped, and reversed at some
point, and the seemingly endless increase in per capita consumption slowed
and then reversed as well. But a 'Mr. Fusion' breakthrough would sure give
us some breathing room to mature as a species and figure out how to bring
our existence into some kind longer-term sustainable future, one in which
we do not exterminate many of the other species on Earth.
I would bet that Ron's "lead pipe cinch" prognosis will turn out to be
correct.
As grim as the depletion curves from Campbell et al looked like, those were
best case scenarios.
The real wall is when it takes 1 unit of energy to get 1 unit of
energy out. Ehh – no – that can't be. What equipment would they use to get
that out? So we need a functioning steel industry. We actually need a bit
more than that. An oil platform incorporates pretty much everything modern
in this world, engines and motors of all kinds. Computers. And we might
want to get to the platform. So we need some helicopters. A complicated
machine.
And even if we have all of that, we still done have any energy left for
the rest of the economy.
"As grim as the depletion curves from Campbell et al looked like, those
were best case scenarios."
That was pretty much my thought as well. This is one of the more depressing
posts here. I've been thinking we'd muddle through for a good few more years
even as oil depleted but if these figures are born out I'm not so sure.
The 10% decline rate without continuous infill drilling is particularly
worrying. Mostly infill drilling accelerates production but does little
for overall capture (sometimes a bit of increase in recovery, but sometimes
it can have the opposite effect) so the more they are used the more the
decline rate will increase after the peak. I know the 10% figure is for
offshore fields but a) this is not encouraging for the prospects of deepwater
development b) there have been recent large infill drilling programs in
Russia and ME – if the result is that their declines tend towards 10% rather
than 2 or 3 in the near term then look out.
In addition for the ME – I cannot see how the ruling regimes can be maintained
once serious decline sets in and is recognised as such by the populace (i.e.
that there will be no recovery). As the cradle to grave social programs
have to be continuously cut then there must be some kind of uprising, which
you'd expect would lead to significant, and maybe permanent, disruption
of production (and therefore less overall recovery).
The export issue is also relevant to consider. Say a 10% reduction
in production would likely be a 20% reduction in export availability (maybe
a bit more because of EROI issues and growing domestic use, especially if
wars and social unrest escalate) – which would crush most European and a
good few developing countries' economies even if they were looking reasonably
healthy, which they obviously aren't, and without the ever increasing waves
of refugees coming their way.
Signs of troubles for the USA natural gas production. This is a larger player and if it is in trouble
the whole US shale gas industry is in trouble too.
Notable quotes:
"... Keep oil at $30 and gas at $2 through summer and there will be a very long list of these. ..."
"... Note how the Dow/S P continues to trade lockstep with crude. ..."
"... Not until the executives have configured themselves to the extent possible within insider trading regs. After that, maybe theyll have plans . ..."
"... A total of 74 energy companies, including Energy XXI Gulf Coast Inc. and Halcon Resources Corp., are expected to have significant difficulties sustaining their debt, according to the report. ..."
"... BTW, Halcon is down 12.8% today, 67.5% year-to-date, and 96% in one year. ..."
The number of U.S. companies that have the highest risk of defaulting on their debt is nearing
a peak not seen since the height of the financial crisis.
With the energy industry crumbling amid record low oil prices, the number of companies with the
lowest credit ratings reached 264 as of Feb. 1, just shy of the high of 291 set in April 2009,
according to a report by Moody's Investors Service Wednesday. That's a 44 percent jump in the
past 12 months, Moody's said.
"The majority of new additions came from oil & gas ….
A total of 74 energy companies, including Energy XXI Gulf Coast Inc. and Halcon Resources
Corp., are expected to have significant difficulties sustaining their debt, according to the report."
BTW, Halcon is down 12.8% today, 67.5% year-to-date, and 96% in one year.
Do FT honchos know that the USA is importer of natural gas and will stay as such in foreseeable
future due to decimation of shale oil/gas sector. See
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_impc_s1_a.htm
Notable quotes:
"... Finally, like Saudi Arabia in oil, Gazprom is one of the lowest-cost gas producers. According to calculations by Mr Henderson at OIES, the cost to Gazprom of delivering its gas to Germany is $3.5 per mmbtu (million British thermal unit) - compared with an estimated $4.3 per mmbtu break-even for US LNG supplies despite US gas prices trading near 16-year lows. ..."
"... Gazprom's contract prices, which are largely tied to oil prices, have kept pace with the spot gas market decline and are likely to fall further in the next six to nine months. ..."
Just as Saudi Arabia is the main swing producer for the global oil market thanks to its ability
to ramp up production if needed, Gazprom is the main holder of spare capacity in the global gas market.
According to Gazprom executives, the company has about 100bn cu m of spare production capacity
- thanks largely to investments made on over-optimistic assumptions about future gas demand - equivalent
to almost a quarter of its production and about 3 per cent of world output.
And just as Saudi Arabia has been unnerved by the prospect of US shale oil
producers eroding its market share, Gazprom faces a similar prospect in the gas market. The flood
of cheap gas unleashed by the
US shale boom has prompted a wave of US LNG projects in recent years. The first cargo of LNG
from the "lower 48" contiguous states of the US is due to be shipped in the next two months, and
the total export capacity under
construction is equivalent to two-thirds of Gazprom's exports to Europe.
Finally, like Saudi Arabia in oil, Gazprom is one of the lowest-cost gas producers. According
to calculations by Mr Henderson at OIES, the cost to Gazprom of delivering its gas to Germany is
$3.5 per mmbtu (million British thermal unit) - compared with an estimated $4.3 per mmbtu break-even
for US LNG supplies despite US gas prices trading near 16-year lows.
Put all those facts together, and it would seem to make sense for the Russian company to push
down prices to keep US LNG out of the market.
"Now the market is getting excited about it; but also the Russians have done their maths and they
know they can win if it happens," says Thierry Bros, European gas analyst at Société Générale in
Paris.
Such a move would be cheaper to implement now because European gas prices have already fallen
dramatically - spot UK gas prices are down 50 per cent in the past two years. Gazprom's contract
prices, which are largely tied to oil prices, have kept pace with the spot gas market decline and
are likely to fall further in the next six to nine months.
Mr Bros estimates it would cost Gazprom $1.3bn in lost revenues to price US LNG out of the market
this year - less than 1 per cent of its historical annual sales.
Gazprom executives have studied the economics of the price war approach and are discussing the
issue, according to people familiar with the company's thinking.
At a
meeting with investors in New York this week, Alexander Medvedev, Gazprom's deputy chief executive,
argued that low spot prices in Europe had already made US LNG supplies uneconomical. "Despite the
prevailing view on the market that North American LNG can change the current pricing model in Europe,
in reality this is not the case at all," he said.
Russia will supply coal and electricity to Ukraine without prepayment, Vladimir Putin's spokesman
said. Ukraine is trying to cope with energy problems amid an ongoing crisis in the industrial east.
This proves the president's political goodwill and support, "particularly before New Year,"
said presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Saturday, as quoted by TASS.
"Against all the odds as President Putin said earlier in the hard times he had never given
up the consistent policy towards supporting the Ukrainian people and providing real and not eventual
support, due to the critical energy situation Putin took a decision on such supplies regardless the
absence of prepayment, which is the condition of making them," he added.
Moscow will supply 500,000 tonnes of coal to Ukraine per month, according to Russian Vice-Premier
Dmitry Kozak.
"If an additional corresponding agreement may be reached, we're ready to supply another 500,000
tonnes, totally 1 million tonnes of coal, to Ukraine in order to help it solve energy problems,"
Kozak told Rossiya24 TV channel.
He added that energy carriers will be supplied to Ukraine on easy terms. However, the amount of
electricity planned to be transferred to Ukraine is unclear.
The decision comes in response to Ukraine's request, he said. Previously, Ukraine's President
Petro Poroshenko ordered the Energy Ministry to discuss the supply issue with Russia.
Earlier on Saturday, the Ukrainian Regional Development Ministry said on its website that Kiev
will begin receiving Russian coal without prepayment, citing the presidential press service. However,
the ministry's spokeswoman, Nadezhda Petruniak, later said that the website had been hacked and the
ministry did not have any information about energy supplies from third countries.
Kozak expressed hope that Russia's decision will help ensure reliable energy supplies to Crimea.
On Friday, Ukraine again fully ceased electric power supplies to Crimea without any notification,
said Crimea's fuel and energy minister, Sergey Yegorov. Power cuts started on Wednesday.
Though Crimea joined Russia in March, it is still dependent on power supplies from Ukraine. It
is suffering from supply disruptions due to a production deficit in Ukraine.
Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of gas and coal for public utilities such as heating and electricity.
The gas shortage was prompted by Ukraine's debt to Russia, while the lack of coal is related to military
operations in the Donetsk Basin, which houses most of the country's coal mines.
There is a
growing chorus in Europe against Germany's support to expand a
major natural gas pipeline from Russia over fears that it will
leave Europe more dependent on their eastern neighbor.
The
Nord Stream 2 would build on the existing Nord Stream pipeline, a
conduit that delivers Russian natural gas to Germany via the Baltic
Sea. Crucially, the project cuts out Ukraine, a key strategic
objective for Russia since the original project's inception.
The latest $11 billion expansion would double the pipeline's
current capacity
of 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. From Russia's
perspective, the project will increase market share and gas sales;
from Germany's point of view, the project increases sources of
supply. Nord Stream 2 was originally conceived of years ago, but in
June 2015 Gazprom
signed a
memorandum with Royal Dutch Shell and OMV to move forward.
Nick Cunningham is a Vermont-based writer on energy and environmental issues. You can
follow him on twitter at @nickcunningham1
"... "Firstly, Ukraine is an energy-deficient country and the tendency we observe today will continue and develop: gas production in Ukraine will decline and consumption will grow. We proceed from the assumption that the Ukrainian economy will develop successfully. The present-day level of gas consumption clearly shows that Ukraine has not solved all of its economic problems. In this regard, gas supplies to Ukraine will increase in the medium and long term. Secondly, if a merger takes place, we will load Ukraine's gas transmission system to the extent possible and it surely means additional income that is significant for the Ukrainian budget. At the same time, if the Ukrainian gas transmission system is loaded with some 95 billion cubic meters of gas per year, we know well that it may deliver 120 and even 125 billion cubic meters with a particular level of investments in modernization and reconstruction, of course. And if small investments are made in new compressor stations and pipeline loops, we may probably speak of 140 billion cubic meters of gas. However, we realize that European gas consumption will grow. According to our estimates, gas demand in Europe may grow up to 130-140 billion cubic meters of gas by the turn of 2020." ..."
"... Remember the story with biogas, wonderful – 20 per cent by 2020, and mass media start writing that it will enable escaping from dependence on Russia. Then we find out that biogas is there, together with food supply problems, etc. Then we observed the European Union's wonderful program – "20-20-20". I think, there's no need of deciphering it – everyone knows about it. And again mass media say that it will enable reducing dependence on Gazprom and Russia. The same thing is with shale gas. First, no one will cope with shale gas transportation, because it is too expensive, add transport – and it is already a business with no prospects. I have a plea for mass media – would you please stop frightening Europe, stop frightening everyone around with Russia and Gazprom. For Europe it is a real blessing that it has such a powerful neighbor with such conventional gas reserves. Exploration of non-conventionals [N.B.: Non-conventional energy resources] may end with no results, as experience of certain countries shows. So let's live in peace and friendship and contribute to strengthening Russia's contacts and ties with the European Union and Ukraine . ..."
Turkish Stream is now officially cancelled. All the eggs are now in the same basket: Nord Stream
II. Hopefully the US/UK/Baltics/Poland front will not be able to stop it. Because otherwise Russia
is stuck with Ukraine as a transit country.
Well, I don't think they want to stop it. They want the gas the same as before – they just want
it on their own terms. Brussels wants to exercise control over whose gas goes through the pipeline,
so that if they are have a "spat" with Russia, they can stop orders of Russian gas and bring some
at-this-moment-unknown supplier's gas through the same pipeline, probably Azerbaijan.
Read
this 2011 press conference with Gazprom; I found it while looking for a layman's explanation
of what the Third Energy Package actually entails. Because it appears what is most unappealing
to it from Gazprom's point of view is that it limits vital investment in gas futures, considering
it would substantially restrict long-term contracts. They could be happy with you today, buying
off your competitors tomorrow. According to Brussels, that's healthy competition which ensures
the customer gets the best price, while Gazprom naturally prefers to deal in long-term contracts
which lock the customer in, although they are usually willing to talk out a deal if it looks like
the customer is really unhappy because unhappy customers are bad for business, even in the gas
industry.
Right away, you notice that Europe accepts long-term contracts, but nonetheless takes the position
that long-term capacity supply orders upset the market. As Gazprom correctly points out, these
two views cannot reasonably coexist.
In 2011, Gazprom was still considering a joint venture with NaftoGaz Ukraine, and intended
to actually increase gas transit through Ukraine while simultaneously building South Stream. They
were also considering a merger, and Miller said if that came about, Ukrainian gas consumers would
pay the same prices as Russia. Look how far they are away from that now – funny old world, innit?
Here was Miller's vision, at the time, for a Gazprom-NaftoGaz merger:
"Firstly, Ukraine is an energy-deficient country and the tendency we observe today will
continue and develop: gas production in Ukraine will decline and consumption will grow. We
proceed from the assumption that the Ukrainian economy will develop successfully. The present-day
level of gas consumption clearly shows that Ukraine has not solved all of its economic problems.
In this regard, gas supplies to Ukraine will increase in the medium and long term.
Secondly, if a merger takes place, we will load Ukraine's gas transmission system to the extent
possible and it surely means additional income that is significant for the Ukrainian budget.
At the same time, if the Ukrainian gas transmission system is loaded with some 95 billion cubic
meters of gas per year, we know well that it may deliver 120 and even 125 billion cubic meters
with a particular level of investments in modernization and reconstruction, of course. And
if small investments are made in new compressor stations and pipeline loops, we may probably
speak of 140 billion cubic meters of gas. However, we realize that European gas consumption
will grow. According to our estimates, gas demand in Europe may grow up to 130-140 billion
cubic meters of gas by the turn of 2020."
You can see, I'm sure, why Brussels didn't like it. Under the Third Energy Package, the operator
of the gas transit system will be elected by the European Union on a tender basis. You can see,
I'm sure, why Gazprom didn't like that. If the merger between Gazprom and NaftoGaz Ukraine had
come about, Ukrainians would have paid Russian domestic prices, in a word, forever.
What Europe's position boils down to is it wants a system whereby its suppliers do not own
anything of the transit system, and the operator could be anyone depending on who sucks up to
Europe the most, so that it can make its suppliers fight with one another and be assured of the
cheapest prices. Until that magical sugar-daddy supplier appears that can provide steady and sustained
competition to Russia, Europe is not in a very good bargaining position. But you bet that would
change fast if the western alliance could get rid of Assad, partition Syria and get a Qatari gas
pipeline laid across it.
Here's a poignant reminder of what might have been, which serves to point up who are the real
troublemakers:
"Remember the story with biogas, wonderful – 20 per cent by 2020, and mass media start
writing that it will enable escaping from dependence on Russia. Then we find out that biogas
is there, together with food supply problems, etc. Then we observed the European Union's wonderful
program – "20-20-20". I think, there's no need of deciphering it – everyone knows about it.
And again mass media say that it will enable reducing dependence on Gazprom and Russia. The
same thing is with shale gas. First, no one will cope with shale gas transportation, because
it is too expensive, add transport – and it is already a business with no prospects.
I have a plea for mass media – would you please stop frightening Europe, stop frightening
everyone around with Russia and Gazprom. For Europe it is a real blessing that it has such
a powerful neighbor with such conventional gas reserves. Exploration of non-conventionals [N.B.:
Non-conventional energy resources] may end with no results, as experience of certain countries
shows. So let's live in peace and friendship and contribute to strengthening Russia's contacts
and ties with the European Union and Ukraine."
See above. It is time for Russia to lay down the law. Russia can go without the $25 billion per
year of lost revenues. But whole EU economies will crash into epic depressions without this energy
supply. In other words, the EU is looking at TRILLIONS of DOLLARS in economic damage. The Brussels
Uncle Scam cocksuckers will have to justify their actions. Russia does not have to since it is
the vendor. If you are not happy, then shop the fuck elsewhere, idiots.
Kiev professes itself "satisfied" with
the gas price negotiated in the deal, in which the fact that Ukraine's gas supply will be
entirely paid for by Europe is spun as a victory for Naftogaz and Demchysin personally, after
he wrestled Russia into submission and made them drop their prices.
"As customers, we're interested
in a lower price". Dear God, you could laugh until you died. As customers who have to beg our
boss for money because we're broke, we're interested in at least the appearance of being in control
of something. Anything.
Ha, ha, ha!! If you were thinking "Nord
Stream II in Ukrainian Perspective" could be summarized as "Wahhhh!!! I Went Crazy And Now
Russia Won't Talk To Me!" crackpottery, you would be right.
Standout points are (1) Raising transit fees is normal procedure when transit volumes drop,
and (2) Ukraine's transit system will register a net loss if transit drops below 40 BCm a year.
The volume in 2015, while Ukraine is still being used as a transit country, is expected to top
out at 51 BCm.
I would say the writing is on the wall there, and the message does not…ummm…look positive for
Ukraine. You pissed in the pickles one time too often. Notably, however, although some of the
reduced transit volume is due to Europe taking less gas, a stronger limiting factor is more gas
being sent through Nord Stream. You can see why Europe was desperate to stop South Stream, and
why it is now trying out a tough-guy approach as if it can force Russia to continue using Ukraine
as a transit country, to a background of despairing wails from Ukraine.
"... Since the Russians haven't rolled over the first time, the US is trying again. These days, the price of oil is determined by activity in the futures market impacting the spot price. Likewise, I expect for shares and wouldn't be surprised if someone is shorting the stock. Any oil and gas not pumped today is available to be pumped tomorrow - possibly at higher prices. Gazprom isn't going bankrupt. Neither are any of the other major oil companies. ..."
"... Therefore, he said, "today there are no conditions under which all thought that if tomorrow Russia will cease to supply gas, this same gas would be supplied by Iran." "Our production is still far from this stage", - said the president. ..."
"... "Competition should not be problematic, it should be healthy competition, should not do so to the profit only for the buyer, and the exporters suffering damage ". ..."
"... the recent Security Council vote ending the Iran sanctions also enabled was the release of ~$150 billion that was held in foreign accounts. ..."
"... When Russia responded at the sanctions by its sanctions in the agriculture I heard here the malevolent sneers there'd be a famine in Russia. Now the collapse of Gasprom, the failure of the deal with China. What a shame for The Guardian to become an yellow shit ..."
"... Seems the author is a warrior in the camp of the unnamed competitor which would like to supply its liquid costly gas.I know one direction where his bid will be welcomed at any price but for free- Ukraine ..."
"... What is happening in the oil market is a very complicated process. Do not simplify the process of digestion by eating only the headlines. The headlines are not very high-calorie product, if you certainly do not pursue the goal to lose weight. Including lose money. ..."
"... Putin has tried to shrug off the economic sanctions as no big deal, but the secret agreement between the West and Saudi Arabia to keep oil supplies high and gas prices low is really hurting Russia. ..."
"... Kuwait and Abu Dhabi can live with crude at its current level: Saudi Arabia cannot. It requires an oil price of $106 a barrel to balance the books... Not $20 ..."
Russia is looking to channel gas through Turkey and adding two new lines
to the Baltic
Nord Stream network, transporting gas over the top of Europe.
The total costs of the projects, without taking into account overruns, will
reach about $25.4bn.
Beyond the construction expenses, transit costs for North Stream appear to
be significantly more expensive than through Ukraine. Experts estimate that
in 2014 it cost Gazprom $43 to transport1,000 cubic metres via Nord Stream
compared to $33 via Ukrainian
. Factored over the tens of billions of cubic metres that Gazprom wants
to send through the Baltic pipes, that's a mighty extra cost just to avoid Ukraine.
Willinilli 8 Aug 2015 02:36
Lazy, lazy, lazy journalism.. Even for a business /economics journalist
.. Saudi Aramco has a much larger potential market cap..
Though to be fair, it was the original FT study that was lazy.. This
is just uninformed churnalism..
annamarinja airman23 8 Aug 2015 09:09
Poor airman23. Have you ever heard about Dick Cheney? Have you ever looked
at the Wolfowitz Doctrine? If not, then you are very much behind the nowadays
understanding of fascism and fascists. On the other hand, you are such a
concrete success of Mrs. Nuland-Kagan' (and likes) travails.
annamarinja -> psygone 8 Aug 2015 09:03
Fracking? Are you serious to monger this this barbaric technique that
has spurred a mass movement in the US and Canada against the ecological
dangers generated by fracking? Each and every of your posts is in line with
MSM "reports." It seems that you value FauxNews above else.
yemrajesh -> psygone 8 Aug 2015 07:36
Difficult to say. If the costs are true'ly low it would have reflected
at the Pump. But it hasn't. Another flaw is how can oil pumped from deeper
well ( Fracked Oil) is cheaper than conventional oil. It looks more like
US flexing its muscles to subdue Russia. Besides its not Just Gazprom ,
shell, BP, Exxon , Gulf, Mobil etc also many of US vassal states are affected.
It would be interesting to see how long this artificial price drop continue
with zero benefit to the customers.
Kaiama 8 Aug 2015 06:07
Since the Russians haven't rolled over the first time, the US is
trying again. These days, the price of oil is determined by activity in
the futures market impacting the spot price. Likewise, I expect for shares
and wouldn't be surprised if someone is shorting the stock. Any oil and
gas not pumped today is available to be pumped tomorrow - possibly at higher
prices. Gazprom isn't going bankrupt. Neither are any of the other major
oil companies.
AlbertEU -> alpamysh 7 Aug 2015 17:09
The crisis of one industry necessarily will hurt other sectors. Hard-hit
banking sector, which is credited US shale industry. The effect can be like
an avalanche. Especially if it is strengthened by additional steps. I think
for anybody is not a secret the existence of a huge number of empty weight
of the dollar, which is produced by running the printing press. Oil trade
is in the dollar, which in turn keeps the volume of the empty weight of
the dollar. Now imagine a situation where part of the oil market has not
traded more in dollars. It is equally affected, the USA and Russia.
But there is one important detail. Russia has never in its history, was
a rich country (if you count all the inhabitants of Russia, not individuals).
In the country there is no cult of consumption. The traditional religions
of Russia, that is, those that have always existed in Russia (Orthodox Christianity,
Islam and Buddhism) did not contribute to the emergence of such a cult.
Orthodoxy says plainly that material wealth is not important for a man.
Wealth is only supplied in addition to achieve the main goal in the life
of an Orthodox Christian. Therefore, to be poor in Russia is not a problem.
This is a normal way of life. Hence the stoic resistance to any hardship,
challenges, wars and so on. Expectations of great social upheaval in Russia,
caused by the lowering of the standard of living is a little naive. Russia
used to run in the marathon. Who would have more strength, intelligence
and endurance is a big question. Geopolitics is a very strange science...
airman23 7 Aug 2015 16:31
Ooops, It's just been announced that the U.S. is adding the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye
oil and gas field that belongs to Gazprom to it's sanctions list. It looks
like Gazprom is gonna loose even more money. This is certainly not what
the Fuehrer had in mind when he started his imperialist war of conquest
in Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea. Unintended consequences to be sure
but what comes around, goes around.
John Smith -> William_Diaz 7 Aug 2015 16:05
From Iranian president from October last year:
Therefore, he said, "today there are no conditions under which all
thought that if tomorrow Russia will cease to supply gas, this same gas
would be supplied by Iran." "Our production is still far from this stage",
- said the president.
He also said that Iran is ready to cooperate with Russia in the gas sector.
"For several years we have been making efforts that countries that export
gas would be able to cooperate" - he recalled. - "Competition should
not be problematic, it should be healthy competition, should not do so to
the profit only for the buyer, and the exporters suffering damage ".
John Smith -> William_Diaz 7 Aug 2015 15:56
Your ignorance only, with whom do you think Iran will coordinate their
actions?
Who brokered them a deal? Do you think Russians are stupid?
Turkey will be not just a transit country but a hub. The EU got to built
they own pipeline if they want Russian gas in 2019. Turkey will set prices.
William_Diaz -> John Smith 7 Aug 2015 15:13
Your ignorance is astounding, lol. Iran doesn't need anyone else to 'jump
in', among the other things that the recent Security Council vote ending
the Iran sanctions also enabled was the release of ~$150 billion that was
held in foreign accounts.
There is more than enough money available for domestic investment, including
a natural gas pipeline to Europe.
Have a great day!
oleteo -> JanZamoyski 7 Aug 2015 14:23
When Russia responded at the sanctions by its sanctions in the agriculture
I heard here the malevolent sneers there'd be a famine in Russia. Now the
collapse of Gasprom, the failure of the deal with China. What a shame for
The Guardian to become an yellow shit
oleteo 7 Aug 2015 14:12
Seems the author is a warrior in the camp of the unnamed competitor
which would like to supply its liquid costly gas.I know one direction where
his bid will be welcomed at any price but for free- Ukraine
AlbertEU 7 Aug 2015 12:59
To kill a competitor, had to endure their own pain. Are you sure that
these actions will kill the Russian oil production instead of US shale oil?
In this case, Saudi Arabia has nothing to lose by increasing oil production,
the same does and lowering the price of Russian oil. Recently, the Crown
Prince of Saudi Arabia visited Russia.
They have a lot of something talked with Putin. Russia, the USA, Iran,
Saudi Arabia are competitors.
Over the past year the United States increased the number of purchased
crude oil from Russia. Saudi Arabia's oil squeezed out of the US market
by their own shale oil. If Saudi Arabia could bankrupt the US oil shale
industry, it (Saudi Arabia) will regain US market.
What is happening in the oil market is a very complicated process.
Do not simplify the process of digestion by eating only the headlines. The
headlines are not very high-calorie product, if you certainly do not pursue
the goal to lose weight. Including lose money.
Yankee_Liberal 7 Aug 2015 11:37
Putin has tried to shrug off the economic sanctions as no big deal, but
the secret agreement between the West and Saudi Arabia to keep oil supplies
high and gas prices low is really hurting Russia. Eventually the Russian
people will realize that a lot of economic pain will go away when Putin
goes and they start respecting their neighbors boundaries.
andydav 7 Aug 2015 11:18
The Guardian has no idea what it is printing. Fact's are not a requirement
in there story's any more EG:: Like many oil-producing countries, Saudi
had got used to an era of high oil prices.
Kuwait and Abu Dhabi can live
with crude at its current level: Saudi Arabia cannot. It requires an oil
price of $106 a barrel to balance the books... Not $20
* Economy ministry sees Gazprom's 2015 gas output at 414 bcm
* Gazprom's gas exports down 6.2 percent in H1
* Gazprom hit by sluggish gas demand, row with Ukraine
* Average gas exporting price down to $249.7 in Jan-May
MOSCOW, July 28 (Reuters) - Russia's Economy Ministry said on Tuesday it expected gas production
at Gazprom to decline to 414 billion cubic metres (bcm) this year, an all-time low, due to sluggish
demand and a decline in upstream investments.
... ... ...
The ministry, citing Gazprom data, said investments into gas production in January-April fell
by more than 60 percent at current prices.
... ... ...
The Kremlin-controlled company also lost its position as western Europe's top gas supplier
to Norway earlier this year.
"...So now, acting according to what it believes are "European values", the Ukraine will buy
gas from suppliers that have previously bought it … from Russia, which purchase is illegal, in that
it acts in breach of contract with Gazprom. But such a petty matter is of no consequence to those
who swear obeisance to "European values". "
As from today, July 1, 2015, the Ukraine refuses to buy gas from Russia:
Not that the Ukraine has ever bought gas from Russia, namely paid in full for that which has
been delivered to that country by the aggressor state: the Ukraine, however, has stolen plenty.
So now, acting according to what it believes are "European values", the Ukraine will buy
gas from suppliers that have previously bought it … from Russia, which purchase is illegal, in
that it acts in breach of contract with Gazprom. But such a petty matter is of no consequence
to those who swear obeisance to "European values".
(She is supposed to pre-pay for the month
of July.)
Therefore, according to Gazprom Chief Alexei Miller, Ukraine has been cut off from the gas
utility.
Ukrainian government responded with open blackmail:
They say if they don't get the gas, then they will cut off all electricity to Crimea!
In response, Crimean authorities convened emergency meeting. They will provide diesel generators
to the most important objects on the peninsula. They will also set up mobile gas-turbine stations
to supply the inhabitants with electricity.
Article goes on to quote an analyst named Mikhail Remizov. Remizov points out, that Ukraine
possesses 2 major points with which it can blackmail Russia:
(1) Being a gas-transit station to Europe; and
(2) Controlling electricity supply to Crimea.
The second point is their best weapon, and it will be quite some time before Crimea can be
electrically independent of mainland Ukraine. So, maybe Khrushchev wasn't such a fool, after all??
...As in other former Soviet countries, the energy behemoth ENA remains a heavily mismanaged enterprise.
This was confirmed by a recent probe, in which the energy regulator has found that suppliers and
traders often use shady intermediaries to push energy managers to inflate procurement costs or steal
electricity. This has led to more than EUR 70 million in losses for the company in just the last
three years, according
to the energy ministry.
The company's overall debt has reached $250 million. Initially, ENA has suggested a 40 percent
increase in electricity tariffs in order to cover its obligations. The government of the pro-Russian
president Serge Sargsyan and the quasi-independent energy regulator initially refused but ultimately
had to accept a 16.7 percent rise after a series of high-level visits from Moscow. Although the government
has confirmed the results of the regulator's investigation, it has decided to look the other way.
Even after the hike, power tariffs would still be just EUR 0.11 cents/kWh, or about half of what
average EU households pay. At purchasing power parity, though, their impact on household budgets
is much greater. According to a World Bank study, Armenians spend around 8% of their income on energy
use, while consuming three times less energy per capita than people in Central and Eastern Europe,
also a region where energy poverty is a widespread phenomenon.
In addition, if accepted, this would be the third consecutive power price hike in two years at
a time when the economy is facing slow growth and
high unemployment rate. The Armenian economy, which is
heavily dependent on Russia, has faced a major downturn since the start of economic troubles
for its powerful neighbor to the north. Russia is the key destination for labor migrants, who contributed
more than
20% of the national income in the form of remittances in 2013 and 11 percent in 2014. In the
first five months of 2015, cash transfers have halved.
The economic link with Russia is most profound in the energy sector. Apart from ENA, the Russian
state, through Gazprom, owns 100 percent of the country's wholesale gas supplying company. The bulk
of FDI inflows also have Russian origin, and 40 percent of them are targeting the energy sector.
In addition, Armenia imports almost all of its gas from Russia and natural gas imports comprise
around 80 percent of all energy imports. Furthermore, 60 percent of the country's total primary energy
supply is derived from natural gas, which is responsible for the majority of residential energy use,
especially in big cities.
However, the increase in gas import prices in 2010 and the subsequent 40 percent hike in household
gas tariffs pushed some urban residents to
switch from
natural gas to electricity for heating, which became comparatively cheaper (about one-fifth of
Armenia's electricity is generated from natural gas, with the rest supplied by a number of hydro
power plants and a nuclear power plant, which is
currently being modernized).
Hence, when power prices began to increase, the outrage in the capital, Yerevan, was easy to understand.
According to the protest leaders, the rallies are not anti-Russian in nature and the main demand
of the people is a reversal to the government's power price decision. President Sargsyan seemed have
backed down after he told senior officials on 26 June that the government will cover the difference
between the old and the new price with budget subsidies until the end of a comprehensive audit of
the ENA's activities.
Protesters, however, seem determined to stay on the streets. Deep-seated mistrust in the government's
ability to implement reforms could trigger an impulse for a regime change. This is the biggest fear
in Moscow, which sees the current Armenian government as an important ally in its natural backyard.
Russia has been able to preserve its influence in the small Caucasian state by expanding its control
over key economic sectors. This was done by recruiting senior government officials, who used Russia's
influence to limit outside competition
and preserve the
dominant position of Russian companies in
the
energy sector.
If there is a change of guard in Yerevan, the established connections that have served Moscow
so well, could crumble. Not surprisingly, similar to the aftermath of Ukraine's Maidan rally in early
2014, Moscow's propaganda has
presented the street protests in Yerevan as a Western plot to
contain Russia's
influence.
In a sign of full support, Moscow provided the government with
$200 million
in military aid on 26 June. Armenia relies for its security on the 3,000 Russian troops stationed
in the country, which have so far deterred efforts by Azerbaijan to try to reclaim the separatist
republic of Nagorno Karabakh, occupied by Armenia during a bloody five-year war in the early 1990s.
Paradoxically, Russia's attempts to secure its influence and, more importantly, its energy interests
in the neighborhood could backfire. While Armenian demonstrators have largely limited, domestic aims,
the Russian insistence on turning the protests into an East-West clash could incite protesters to
demand that the Armenian government take a sharp turn away from Moscow.
Faced with such a choice, president Sargsyan might have to abandon his close ties with Kremlin
in an attempt to stay in power. This is likely to lead to economic retaliation from Russia such as
gas supply cuts. The alternative, though, may be to follow the path of Ukraine's former president,
Victor Yanukovych.
Article about Liquified Natural Gas
(LNG) terminal in Lithuania.
In Klaipėda, Lithuania, there is this LNG terminal named "Independence". The name intending to
signify Lithuania's independence from Russian gas.
It was originally planned that the LNG would be sold to Estonia and Latvia. But the latter 2 countries
don't want to buy it, since this LNG is one and half times more expensive than good old-fashioned
Russian gas.
Not being able to sell the LNG, the company which owns the terminal, which is called "Klaipėdos
nafta", turned to the Norwegian company named Statoil, which is actually the source of the natural
gas, in the first place. (Turns out the gas is Norwegian, and then the Liths do something to it.)
So, "Klaipėdos nafta" asked Statoil if the latter could not sell them quite as much gas, since
they can't re-sell all of it.
However, it seems they are stuck, because they have a long-term contract, whereby Norwegian Statoil
delivers to Lithuania annually 540 million cubic meters of natural gas. This is the minimum required
amount that Lithuania MUST buy annually, according to the contract, whether they need it or not.
Coming out of the pipe, Norwegian gas only costs between 328.9 and 365.5 dollars for 1,000 cubic
meters. However, doing whatever they do it at the terminal adds a cost of 145 dollars for each
1,000 cubic meters. This includes the cost of renting the terminal and also the amortization cost
of the equipment. The process of liquifying and compressing adds a cost of additional 60 dollars
per 1,000 cubic meters. After that, to squeeze a very tight margin, the Lithuanian company must
charge between 539 and 576 dollars per 1,000 cubic meters. Compare that to the Gazprom price for
regular Russian gas, which comes to $370.
You have to hand it to Grybauskaitė – she certainly has a nose for business. Unfortunately, it's
on the front of a big oval of cedar. Good luck with that, Lithuania. It's a good example for Poland's
terminal, which Sikorski pointed out might generate gas which is more expensive, but at least
they can put a Polish flag on it. I'm sure the consumers who see their gas prices achieve escape
velocity will appreciate the sentiment, and smile in approval as they pay their new gigantic bills.
An extra $325 Million a year, if the price doesn't go up. Fookin' brilliant,
that. Pride cometh expensive, what?
Some would say there was a fine line between proud and stupid. And many of those rendering
such a judgment would be Poles, reading their gas bill. If they were going to lose their minds
altogether on a diet of their hate, why didn't they go for a non-hydrocarbon-based energy supply?
Ooooooo….Mr. Sahra Wagenknecht (Oskar Lafontaine, the lucky stiff) says "Fuck
U.S. Imperialism!!" Is that the tide I hear, turning?
Seriously, this gives the people a
clear choice – same old same-old, with national leaders pretending to govern while taking their
orders from Washington on the down-low in support of strictly American strategic objectives, or
a true break with America as an economic partner only.
The USA has pooh-poohed the notion of Europe actually rejecting it as ridiculous, but it wants
to tread very lightly, because a lot of people are getting very fed up with a "Great Game" which
is focused entirely on American benefit and in which the European members are expendable.
Putin can make hay with this if he does not get too cocky.
et Al, June 24, 2015 at 4:08 pm
…so that bridges between Russians and Europeans can be proverbially burned.
I disagree. Like over burnt toast, if you scrape off the inedible bits (all the PR fluff and
bs statements vs. quite carefully selected 'smart' sanctions that are remarkably limited), most
of it is still good. so, Paradise is somewhat postponed…if you will.
US and EU strategic interests are fundamentally divergent. All the papering over the cracks
with the lowest common denominator actions whether by Brussels, NATO or the local dogs and cats
shelter are just that. The five stages of grief, innit?
I hope I'm not wrong, but my feeling is that the US is channeling Nixon playin' crayzee.
Does anybody know what Russia's plans are to try to prevent runaway climate change? Or is Russia's
government oblivious to the catastrophic effects of continued greenhouse gas emissions? Their
aggressive plans for oil drilling in the Arctic indicate the latter.
"Or is Russia's government oblivious to the catastrophic effects of continued greenhouse gas
emissions?" Sounds like a typical cheap shot against Russia to me. The country most oblivious
to the catastrophic effects, and one of the two the biggest contributors (with China), is the
good ole USA. Russian is at 6%, USA at 20%! Your propaganda driven prejudice is showing!
With Russia's utter dependence upon oil and gas, plus lack of FDI, they have no alternative
but to drill baby drill. Eventual regime change may increase their long term prospects.
Careful now. This could encourage blow-back from Barry Fay.
Let me just say that Russia is not a static society (education is prized). They can, and likely
will, create a more diversified/un-stratified economy going forward. As for regime change, that's
an habitual fantasy of folks who read only MSM propaganda. Putin, despite the grandstanding of
American representatives (98% return rate) has the support of 80% of the Russian population. Russians
are not stupid (See USA for comparison.)
2. At a time when China and parts of Eastern Europe remain dependent on highly polluting coal-fired
power plants, Germany is returning to coal following its phase-out of nuclear power, cash-strapped
EU countries are phasing out renewable energy subsidies, and many Eastern European nuclear plants
are overdue for retirement, natural gas remains a necessary – and environmentally friendly – energy
alternative. The only question then is where the gas to come from. The UK's oil and gas industry
is in terminal decline, large-scale imports from North America and the Middle East are a decade
or more away, and efforts to promote fracking-related gas production in Europe has failed for
a variety of reasons. To borrow a favorite line of the neo-liberals, "there is no alternative"
(TINA) to Russian gas.
3. Since the end of the Cold War, the West has aggressively used the WTO, investor-state dispute
tribunals, sanctions, propaganda campaigns, and "regime change" to punish resource-exporting nations
who limit, or attempt to limit, exports for environmental reasons. To the WTO, for example, environmental
laws in countries outside of Western Europe, the US, and Canada are illegal "non-tariff trade
barriers." Russian attempts to protect its old growth forests against timber exporters and Chinese
attempts to limit the environmentally disastrous (and often illegal) mining of rare earth ores
were both struck down by the WTO at the request of the West. If Russia were to limit oil and gas
exports for environmental reasons, the resulting legal, political, and military confrontation
with the West would dwarf the Cuban missile crisis.
Burning any hydrocarbon produces carbon dioxide, so natural gas is not "environmentally friendly."
There is clear evidence, too, that natural gas exploration and production release huge quantities
of methane into the atmosphere. EPA has proposed rules on that for producers (late and weak, of
course). Methane in atmosphere is over 20X as damaging as CO.
Russian scientists contribute much to
Climate Mayhem knowledge, especially in the rapidly changing arctic and on the threat of methane
release.
Russian Academy of Sciences, Far Eastern Branch, Pacific Oceanological Institute, 43 Baltiiskaya
Street, Vladivostok 690041, Russia
Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Anatoly Salyuk, Denis Kosmach & Denis Chernykh
Russian Academy of Sciences, Far Eastern Branch, Institute of Chemistry, 159, 100-Let Vladivostok
Prospect, Vladivostok 690022, Russia
Valentin Sergienko
To name a few.
One wonders if Russian climate scientists are censored and hounded as much as are U.S. and
U.K. researchers, especially in the US government (USGS, NOAA, NASA, etc.). Persecution and censorship
of US scientists is above McCarthey-esque proportions today.
Just like the War on Drugs is most successful when it focuses on reducing demand (drug users)
rather than fighting/bombing the suppliers (Mexico, Colombia, etc), the War on greenhouse gases
is best fought by reducing demand. If the Europeans find a way to no longer need so much natgas,
then Russia wouldn't be selling it to them. Otherwise, someone else will sell it to them regardless.
That doesn't completely exonerate Russia, of course, and given their history with the Aral
Sea, I'm not sure that they would put environmental concerns very high on their list of priorities
(certainly not higher than their economic security). But right now, the problem with greenhouse
gases is on the other end of all these pipelines.
The abandonment of South Stream was not much of a surprise to anybody with even a passing interest
in the energy politics.
Brussels and Washington were both adamant that it would never pass through Bulgaria.
I suppose some people were surprised at how quickly negotiations progressed with Turkey. Possibly
there is some quid pro quo regarding Iranian and Kurdish hydrocarbons.
Serbia and Hungary are anxious for access. The Austrians are even talking money. Greece of
course needs gas and transit fees. Italia, Slovakia, Czech would welcome shares. The only problem
is some people have suddenly taken an interest in organizing a colour revolution in Makedonia.
I questioned the author's perspective as soon as I saw this (in the second sentence)
:
Six months ago Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised the energy world by dismissing
the long-prepared South Stream project in favour of Turkish Stream.
Russia re-routed South Stream to Turkey (now called "TurkStream") because Bulgaria rejected
South Stream under pressure from US/EU. OIFVet, a frequent commentator at NC, has written loads
of good and inciteful comments with respect to this farce (he is Bulgarian).
The author refers to a "Russian Waltz" which casts aspersions on Russian intentions. Their
intentions are clear. To by-pass a Ukraine that is hostile to Russia. Period. Their efforts to
do so are being blocked (first by pressuring Bulgaria, now with a color revolution in Macedonia).
Russia's 'waltz' partner is the EU which created the rule that pipeline ownership must be independent
of supplier. This rule has dubious value when applied to large suppliers like Russia/Gazprom.
The author artfully guides us to three possibilities but ignores the most logical and intuitive
one. Russia is likely to be taking this move now to hedge against the developing brinkmanship
whereby Russia is blamed for causing European suffering by refusing to transit gas through Ukraine
– despite the US/EU's irresponsible blocking of South Stream / Turk Stream as a delivery platform.
=
I believe that one must be very careful about sources when dealing with issues that are sensitive
to the US/EU establishment.
Brugel is nominally an independent think tank but it is governed by, led by, and staffed with
establishment figures and technocrats. From their annual report:
The idea to set up an independent European think tank devoted to international economics
stemmed from discussions involving economists, policymakers and private practitioners from
many European countries. The initiative subsequently found support from 12 EU governments and
17 leading European corporations, who committed to the project's initial funding base and participated
in the election of its first Board in December 2004. Operations started in 2005 and today Bruegel
counts 18 EU governments, 33 corporations and 10 institutions
among its members.
It is difficult to trust "experts" that have a vested interest in culling favor with the establishment.
This article proves that such skepticism is very much warranted.
Putin's plan, to maintain a chokehold of the distribution of gas, mimics John Rockefeller's
strategy for Standard Oil to control the distribution of oil in the late 19th century.
Syria has really taken a hit for Russia. Until the conflict there is resolved the the Saudis/Arab
natgas cannot build their pipeline. And by the time it is resolved Russia will have already established
its network. It looks like this leaves the Saudis and other MidEast natural gas suppliers at the
mercy of China and India. The BRICS.
You already know this, but Israel wants to send the gas production from the Levantine Basin
to the Europe market and Assad stands in the way for the time being. Once Assad is toppled and
a new puppet regime is put in place, I think we'll see the construction of the pipeline through
Syria. Qatar & Saudi Arabia will connect through the same artery to reach the Europe market…and
then Russia finds itself with competition. This is the key for the West to gain greater control
of the Russian economy, and eventually profit from Russia's resources. So, in the short term (~10
yrs), Russia may have its infrastructure in place (whether via Nord, Turkish or South stream),
but in the long term (~20+ yrs), we'll see Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar enter the Europe market
and Russia will no longer be the only game in town. We think we're seeing the squeeze put on Russia
now, but it will only get worse with time. The West looks at Russia's resources and sees dollar
signs.
In the current political situation, there should be a natural alliance between Russia and Greece,
but it can't be a declared alliance – that leads to retaliation that neither one wants to deal
with right now.
A covert alliance with Russia could put Greece in a position to obtain finance through China.
Without any overt declarations, the European countries might figure out "on their own" that continued
sanctions against Russia are counter-productive.
Even in default, if Greece can maintain any kind of economy, the wily Varoufakis gets to sit
back and smile while the EU ministers try to explain to southern Europe why their policies are
necessary and correct.
The US gets to continue with its unprofitable wars in the mid-East while trying to avoid major
embarrassment from the fascists in DonBass. The major problem for the Russians is watching as
Russians in Ukraine are ethnically cleansed.
If the Russians can avoid a military response all that is needed is someone to maintain the
body count. The overall death count would probably be a lot less than a military response.
An MOU with Greece has been signed, providing significant investment funds, a route around
Ukraine, and a potential clinker in the Russian sanction vote on Monday. Further complications
for debt negotiations? Greece is also reportedly "drawing up a default plan, which would see the
country institute capital controls and nationalize its banking industry" (ibtimes). It ain't over
till it's over…
Russia and Greece
sign deal
on Greek extension to Turkish Stream. Comment by Terry Ross; "By effectively financing
Greece to be a joint owner in the pipeline, Russia has sidestepped the 3rd Energy package monopoly
provisions and ensured that the Troika cannot confiscate what would have been a wholly owned Greek
pipeline. From Russia's point of view it gets the pipeline built without EU interference. Clever
stuff."
And even if the west engineers a colour revolution of the Greek government one
day and replaces it with a pro-western anti-Russian government, the most they could do once the
pipeline is built is threaten to jack up transit fees. Providing Europe hooks up to Turkish Stream
– and I don't see any practical alternative. And Russia could always say "OK; it's your pipeline.
The new delivery point is the Turkish border", like they originally were going to do. But I think
the Greeks will see which side their bread is buttered on, and being a gas hub for Europe is much
more attractive than being scolded and lectured by Europe.
The only alternative in Greece is the Golden Dawn, a nationalist pro-Russian party. Unless
the conservatives - who lost the last election to Syriza - are somehow attractive to the electorate
again and get voted into power, an unlikely event.
For being real nationalists and not shabbos
goyim ("useful cattle" in Yiddish parlance, e.g. the Ukrainian government and its cannon fodders
are shabbos goyim), and with the party's rising popularity in polls, the leadership was rounded
up and arrested following "American" orders. The persecution also extended to other party members
of the parliament (their immunity had to be lifted before). The arrests on trumped-up charges
started after the previous conservative PM visited Washington.
According to NATO, Russia's sale of gas to Europe at much cheaper prices than it would
pay for LNG shipped in in uncertain quantities is an example of "Russia's destabilization efforts",
while paying much higher prices for a less certain supply would be an example of Europe's "political
will and strategic vision". You might think that is an easy choice, but it reckons without
the desperately inbred gits in Brussels who do not spend their own money and are incapable
of thinking within that framework.
Russia should wean itself off the EU market, ASAP. These idiots are irredeemable. I am not
happy that Russia is going to build another pipe to Germany. This is a mistake.
Not necessarily. Russia wants to encourage close ties with Germany in the hope that it can
inspire a business revolt against the German government. Washington, which is pulling all the
strings behind the scenes, cares nothing about Germany's economic interests so long as it does
what it is told and helps America against Russia. Besides, it's not as if Germany is taking
gas for free – it's a moneymaker.
However, I'm pleased to see Russia take a harder line on
Europe as gas customers, and make them build their own infrastructure if they want to hook
up to Turkish Stream. Europe needs to know Russia has alternatives, because at present Europe
is puffed with its own importance and figures "You need us".
In addition to sanctions, Western-controlled Ukraine increases pressure on the Russian elite,
by going after their property.
We already wrote about the Ukrainian junta making moves primarily, legal, on the seizure of Russian
state property in Ukraine -
http://pravoe-org.livejournal.com/521470.html
Perhaps the most serious take over was a pipeline in Western Ukraine of the Russian state corporation
"Transneft".
Now, however, the situation has changed. Ukraine started seizing the property of the Russian oligarchs.
The hype just increased in the last few days, especially on June 10 and 11, when it became clear
that the Minsk-2 is going down the drain. Basically, the flood gates had opened.
In the period from June 8 to 11 a process of requisition of property of the Russian oligarchs
began in Ukraine. First of all, Oleg Deripaska lost (in favor of the state) the Zaporozhye Aluminum
plant, and Viktor Vekselberg, with a combination of pressure from the Prosecutor's office and an
armed takeover, is losing the Pobuzhsky Ferronikel plant.
However, ukies honestly warned about such scenario by the raider №1 in Ukraine - Gennady Korban
(a person close to "Benya" Kolomoisky [Korban is former deputy governor of Dnepropetrovsk region
- KR], and Korban had the experience of seizing the Russian property in the pre-Maidan era). At the
end of May, Korban announced his plan on how to repossess the Russian property:
"Russian banks on the territory of Ukraine shall be confiscated in the first place. They can affect
both the exchange rate and loan servicing and property of state corporations. Today a number of Ukrainian
state corporations just service the enemy credits".
"If these or other capitals, originating from Russia, are related to specific individuals, directly
or indirectly involved in the funding or facilitating terrorism, separatism and the war in our country,
then, on the basis of this law, their property on mainland Ukraine must be confiscated," - said Korban,
and as an example, listed a number of large Ukrainian enterprises, owned by Russian oligarchs:
Nikolaev Alumina refinery and ZAlK [Zaporozhye Aluminum plant] of Oleg Deripaska
Pobujsky Ferronickel plant of Viktor Vekselberg
Coal coke enterprises, the "South" mine and Dnepropetrovsk Petrovsky metallurgical plant,
belonging to the group "Evraz"
Purchased by VTB group, assets of the Industrial Union of Donbass
Today, the "Cunning Plan of Korban", unlike the CPP [the Cunning Plan of Putin], is being implemented.
Actively implemented. Here are the facts:
First, nationalization
On June 9, junta has completed the process of "nationalization" of Zaporozhye Aluminium plant:
ZALK was adjudged from the holding "RUSAL" of Russian Oleg Deripaska. The controlling stake, which
is 68.01% of the total number of shares was credited to the account of the State Property Fund of
Ukraine. State raiding by the junta became possible after March 11, when the supreme court upheld
the "legitimacy" of demands for the return of shares to the state due to the failure by the investor
(Deripaska's holding company) to fulfill obligations (formally, the Russian "AVTOVAZ-Invest" and
Cyprus company Velbay Holdings could not settle a debt). The official message of junta Prosecutor
General can be found here:
http://www.gp.gov.ua/ua/news.html?_m=publications&_c=view&_t=rec&id=157430
It's also important to note that Korban's gang set its sights on ZALK since the end of last year:
"In early November, the plant (ZALK) came under the cross-hairs of fighters of battalion "Aidar",
the financing of which is connected to the Governor of Dnepropetrovsk region, Igor Kolomoisky. On
the night of November 9, 2014 the fighters of Aydar barricaded themselves in the building of Zaporozhzhye
Aluminium plant, allegedly "to prevent looting". Zaporozhye police had to aid in liberating
the plant from the patriots.
But it was too rough, now they decided to maintain the facade of legitimacy.
Second, revocation of licenses and liquidation
On June 11, in the afternoon, the National Bank of Ukraine adopted the decision on revocation of
the banking license and liquidation of "Energobank", according to the resolution of the board of
the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) No. 370, dated June 11.
Formally "Energobank" is owned by a Russian businessman, Anatoly Danilitskiy. Previously, it belonged
to the group of oligarch Alexander Lebedev, the one who likes to engage in publishing activity in
London. However, two years ago information surfaced, that there is a written obligation of the new
owner Anatoly Danilitsky on reissuance of shares of the bank to the "National Reserve Company" (NRK)
of Lebedev. Thus, Danilitsky owns "Energobank" nominally, but the real owner is still Alexander Lebedev.
Security services of Ukraine considered the bank a financial "wash" of the Russian oligarchs.
June 11, in the evening. A capture of Pobujsky Ferronickel plant (PFC). This is the only enterprise
in Ukraine and the former Soviet Union, producing ferronickel on an industrial scale from poor oxidized
nickel ores. Located on the territory of Kirovograd region, on the border with Nikolaev region.
Here is the sequence of events:
1. In Golovanevsk district, Kirovograd region, at around 21:00 a group of armed men tried to enter
the Pobuzhsky Ferronickel plant, at the moment they were negotiating with the administration, reported
the head of the village council of Dolgaya Pristan of the Nikolaev region, Sergey Titarenko (this
settlement is adjacent to the Kirovograd region). "About an hour ago armed men tried to enter the
Pobuzhsky Ferronickel plant. Our town is a mile from the plant. We could hear shooting. At the moment
there is information on negotiations between the invaders and the administration, " said Sergey Titarenko.
In Pobuzhye, the village head, Sergey Slobodyanyuk explained: "Even this morning the representatives
of the prosecutor and tax authorities of Kirovograd region, accompanied by the detachment of police,
tried to enter the territory of the enterprise, but only a tax investigator went into the plant.
At 9 p.m. about 50 people with guns in black uniforms arrived on buses. They failed to get inside,
facing resistance from the staff and the guards. Meanwhile, armed men accompanied the man, who declared
that according to the decision of the court, he is the new owner of the Ferronickel plant", - said
Sergey Slobodyanyuk. He also added that tomorrow morning, to avoid bloodshed a meeting for the employees,
the current administration and the alleged new owner of the enterprise will be held in Pobuzhye House
of Culture to determine the fate of the plant.
2. In the evening, at a press conference in Kiev, the CEO of the Pobuzhsky Ferronickel plant,
Oleg Bespalov has informed that on June 11, unknown persons were trying to block the products of
Pobujsky Ferronickel plant in Kirovograd region, the investor of which is Solway Investment Group:
"Actions by unknown persons to block the import of a large batch of nickel ore and ferronickel
and the prosecutor's office of Kirovograd region conducting simultaneous search actions, we
consider as an attempt of illegal seizure of the property of the group"
Deputy director of the PFC on legal affairs, Rustam Dzhamgurov, in turn added that accusations
towards PFC are absurd, because PFC provides processing services and does not produce the product,
and added that enforcement proceedings opened against PFC were opened due to a claim of a physical
person, who has no relation to the company. Dzhamgurov clarified that this individual has never appeared
in court and did not provide explanatory materials on the case:
"In this case we are talking about an organized judicial arbitrariness and lawlessness ... 72
thousand tonnes of ore and 7 thousand tons of ferronickel were arrested. The company is carrying
huge losses."
3. The products of PFC are shipped through the port of Ilyichevsk, and there it was detained.
(Ilyichevsk - is Odessa region, where Saakashvili is now governor). It is important that on June
8 a scandal was raised claiming the products of PFC are used for defense purposes and are illegally
shipped to Russia:
"Press service (of the port) stated that on Monday, June 8, false information was circulated about
the alleged illegal shipment of ferronickel products used in the defense industry, in particular,
in the production of alloy steel for armored vehicles. At the port this media campaign to discredit
the head of the enterprise, Yury Kruk, was connected to the search for the position of director of
the Ilyichevsk Commercial Sea Port, conducted by the Ministry of Infrastructure. On June 8, some
online media, indeed, reported that allegedly the arrested batch of 7 thousand tons of ferronickel
was being loaded on the ship "Seldonis" at terminal 4 of Pier 18 of the Ilyichevsk port. ... The
shipment of ferronickel is allegedly owned by "Bowring Trading", and it was going to be transported
to Russia."
Oh, and by the way, who is watching TV? Is there anything on Russia-24 or the Channel 1 on the
an armed seizure of a Ferronickel plant, which essentially belongs to Russian investors? And on the
liquidation of a Russian Bank? Nothing? Let's pretend, it's not ours?... Oh, well...
And more. Such an attack on the property of the Russian oligarchs (Deripaska, and most importantly,
Vekselberg, and the attack will likely continue) is going on with the full support of the state -
Prosecutor General. Therefore, it is planned. Consequently, it's a part of a master plan. A
plan of pressure on their property, in addition to the sanctions of the West against Russia, which
were largely intended to cause discontent in the Russian oligarchy. Today, yesterday, the day before
yesterday a second front was opened in this direction.
Let me put this another way: The developed world is in depression. It has been in depression since
2007. It never left depression. Within that depression, there is still a business cycle: There
are expansions, and recessions, and so on. Better times and worse times.
The business cycle is again turning down and is doing so sharply. Not only in the U.S. but also
in Europe and Asia.
Every central bank has been throwing money at the local economies but that money finds no productive
use. Why would a company invest even at 0% interests when nobody will buy the additional products
for a profitable price? How could consumers buy more when wages are stagnant and they are already
overburdened with debt taken up in the last expansion cycle? The central banks are pushing on a string
while distorting normal market relations. This intensifies the original crisis.
My believe is that the global crisis we see is one of overproduction, an excess or glut of supplies
and on the other side a lack of consumption. The exceptional cheap money created by the central banks
makes investment in machines preferable over employment of a human workforce. The result:
Manufacturing hub starts work
on first zero-labor factory
Chen predicted that instead of 2,000 workers, the current strength of the workforce, the company
will require only 200 to operate software system and backstage management.
The (Central) bank gave Mr. Chen cheap money and at an interest rate of 0% a complete automation
of his company may indeed be profitable. It is unlikely though that he would make the same move at
an interest rate of 10%. But on the larger macro economic scale Mr Chen needs to ask this question:
"How will the 1,800 laid off workers be able to buy the products my company makes?" Some of the laid
off people may find marginal "service" job but the money they will make from those will likely be
just enough to keep them alive. And over time flipping burgers will also be automated. And then?
Karl Marx described such overproduction crises. Their cause is a rising share of an economy's
profits going to an ever smaller class of "owners" while the growing class of marginal "workers"
gets less and less of the total pie. In the last decades this phenomenon can be observed all over
the developed world. The other side of the overproduction crisis is an underconsumption crisis. People
can no longer buy for lack of income.
While a realignment of central bank interest rates to historical averages, say some 6%, would
help to slow the negative process it would not solve the current problem. Income inequality and overproduction
would still increase though at a lesser pace. The historic imperialist remedy for local overproduction,
capturing new markets, is no longer available. Global trade is already high. There is little land
left to colonize and to widen the markets for ones products.
There are then two solutions to such an crisis.
One is to tackle the underconsumption side and to change the distribution of an economy's profits
with a much larger share going to "workers" and a smaller share going to "owners". This could be
achieved through higher taxes on "owners" and redistribution by the state but also through empowerment
of labor unions and like means. But with governments all over the world more and more captured by
the "owners" the chance that this solution will be chosen seem low.
The other solution for a capitalist society to a crisis of overproduction is the forced destruction
of (global) production capabilities through a big war. War also helps to increase control over the
people and to get rid of "surplus workers".
The U.S. was the big economic winner of World War I and II. Production capacities elsewhere got
destroyed through the wars and a huge number of global "surplus workers" were killed. For the U.S.
the wars were, overall, very profitable. Other countries have distinct different experiences with
wars. In likely no other country than the U.S. would one find a major newspaper that arguing that
wars make us safer and richer.
I am therefore concerned that the intensifying crisis of overproduction and its seemingly casual
preference for war will, in years to come, push the U.S. into starting a new global cataclysmic conflict.
Neoconservatives like Victoria Nuland tried to goad Russia and the EU into a big war over Ukraine.
The top lobbyist of the military industrial complex, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter is
trying to instigate a war between China and its neighbors over some atolls in the South China
Sea. The U.S. is at
least complicit in the rise of the Islamic State which will leave the Middle East at war for
the foreseeable future.
Are these already, conscious or by chance, attempts by the U.S. to solve the problem
of global overproduction in its favor?
Marx's early writings, including the Communist Manifesto, did indeed focus on crises of overproduction.
But, in Capital, he explained that falling rates of profit are the key dynamic. For a popular
blog on these issues, see Michael Roberts:
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/
Of course, there is plenty of debate on these matters within Marxian political economy. The
best academic source is the journal, Historical Materialism:
Posted by: Mike Maloney | Jun 1, 2015 2:38:15 PM | 5
I think you're right, b. The U.S. will not allow regional hegemons who are not clients
let alone a global one to challenge its unipolar world. That's why we're seeing all these
wars in various stages -- hot in the Middle East; hot and cold in Ukraine; cold in Southeast Asia.
The U.S. prefers smashed failed states to anything remotely challenging its full-spectrum dominance.
The neoliberal prescription for low growth/no growth is the complete cannibalization of
the state. Privatized health care is being exported to Europe, while in the U.S. public education
is being devoured by corporations.
Since the subject is blacked out by corporate media, we have to decipher the news to try to
figure what is actually happening. The only stimulus acceptable to the elite and their politicians
is war. 2,300 Humvees seized by Islamic State. Instead of containment, ship thousands of anti-tank
missiles to Baghdad; more money in the pocket of the Military Complex.
The problem is that it is psychotic. The Islamic State's end game is Mecca. The shutoff of
11% of the world's oil supply will collapse the world economy. Yet, this is not an aberration.
A civil war was started in Ukraine right on Russia's border; a nuclear power who has said they
will use them if there is a shooting war with NATO.
The Greeks are being pillaged to pay debts that cannot ever be paid back. Unless the debt is
written off, the Eurozone will splinter asunder.
The only description for this is greed. Get rich today; the hell with tomorrow and the rest
of mankind.
Posted by: Mike Maloney | Jun 1, 2015 3:57:03 PM | 9
The good news is that this U.S.-led neoliberal hegemony (what Tariq Ali calls the "Radical
Center") is rapidly losing any popular legitimacy. Syriza in Greece, Podemos in Spain, Sinn Fein
in Ireland, SNP in the UK, even Bernie Sanders in the U.S. His first day of campaigning last week
in Iowa 700 hundred people showed up to hear him speak, compared to 50 for Martin O'Malley, another
corporate shill.
Sanders is no antiwar crusader, but his basic ideas -- cutting military spending, breaking
up the big banks, raising marginal tax rates on the wealthy, creating jobs by investing in infrastructure
-- have proven the most popular, at least based on turnout, in Iowa of any candidate, Republican
or Democrat, so far.
Posted by: tom | Jun 1, 2015 4:17:23 PM | 10
We have to look at the perspective of the class war too, where the corporate and elite class
have growing contempt for the lower/middle classes more than they already do. So, how can one
grow the economy, when the elite and corporate class are exploiting, growing inequality, and hate
for us even more ?
Posted by: Bill | Jun 1, 2015 5:15:09 PM | 12
The prime vote holder of the IMF himself states the IMF has "served US National and economic
interests" since it's inception, across Latin America, Europe and the world, and that "US Leadership"
in the IMF is "critical".
The ideas behind the institutions that came out of Bretton Woods were already in the mind of
FDR and Keynes long before the conference. One of FDR's key advisors was James Warburg whose father
had funded Hitler as well as the USSR, and founded the Federal Reserve Bank.
US financiers funded Russian manufactured trucks which went to the North Vietnamese forces,
and today BP hold stakes in Russian energy firms while Hilary Clinton sells Russia the US Uranium
supply.
As Major General Smedley Butler said in 1935 "War is a Racket". All that has changed is the
quality of the supporting propaganda.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 1, 2015 5:50:10 PM | 16
I think that it is not "overproduction", but the result of improved transportation, communication
and more free trade. What is the advantage of paying wages in USA or Western Europe if you can
put all labor consuming operations in China, where there is good infrastructure, or in countries
where infrastructure is not as good but the labor much cheaper, like Bangladesh? The answer is
that while some advantages do exists, there are less and less frequent. Even automation can be
performed elsewhere.
Historically, in 16-th century The Netherlands were the chief European center of non-agricultural
production, international trade and banking, and afterwards there was less and less production,
but the country retained for a while its position in trade and banking. That cycle affected northern
Italy earlier, and England, later. I think that one part of the solution would be a moderate,
and yet effective, policy supportive of domestic production and domestic employment.
But there is also a bit of overproduction. Average American could perfectly well live in a
smaller home, drive a smaller vehicle, buy fewer gadgets etc. with hardly decreasing the quality
of life. Those below the average income can be out of luck, but they do not consume much anyway.
Additionally, there is an excessive gap between "micro-economic" and "macro-economic" optimum
behavior.
Most American household has so little savings that the suffer a crisis very easily, so it would
be better for them to spend less, e.g. by cooking more and eating out less, cutting down impulse
buying etc. However, the cut in demand is recessionary on a macro-scale. It would be sensible
to have policies that would concentrate not on "growth" but on satisfaction of needs.
America is drowning in the sewer of the national political system. There is no candidate or
incumbent in Washington, DC who serves the country. These elitists rape our liberties, steal
our wealth, entice our grandchildren into killing people in foreign lands and subject the future
of the nation to be slaves to the debt masters.
The American people must exercise the only peaceful option left to restore the federal republic
which is rapidly being transformed into a unitary style government like much of Europe. On November
8, 2016, the nation must stay home and not give its consent to continue being abused by the plutocracy
of puppets bribed by the global bankers, multinational corporations and foreign state lobbyists.
Abstinence is not benign as some would believe, it is a very powerful check on government when
it becomes so infested with opportunists who pursue their own self-serving aggrandizement through
the passage of law and regulation to benefit themselves and their criminal syndicate. Without
a democratic mandate the cabal cannot hold power and therefore the legislative function of law
making is extinguished. The bureaucracy remains in place until the fiscal budget ends in October
of the following year which means social security payments will still be made, Medicare claims
will still be processed and other central government functions will continue. During those 10
months, the people must demand from the governors of each of their respective States new elections
with candidates who are independent of the two-party dogma that has corrupted Washington, DC.
An implied vote of 'No Confidence" or "None of the Above" is the only sensible way to end this
long running nightmare of tyrannical fascism and nationalism that is destroying the country.
The motto of new liberty must be, "Dissolve it, start over!"
Posted by: chuckvw | Jun 1, 2015 7:26:53 PM | 19
So much for the surplus value of labor... All surplus and no labor... The global capitalist
system has become bulimic.
Posted by: Tom Murphy | Jun 1, 2015 8:59:08 PM | 20
I remember in school in the early 1980's a teacher said something really disgusting to the
class: "want to boost an economy, have a war" (clearly the powers that be have made sure that
there propaganda gets fed to the public) another ugly thing a teacher tried to push was the notion
that WWII's economic effect was some sort of special boost yet at the same time trying to obscure
the basic fact that it was government spending that took us out of the depression so war was not
needed at all. A lot of work has gone into pushing the manipulative propaganda which is meant
to manipulate and sell the agenda of the powerful.
How it was presented was "FDR tried the New Deal but it took WWII to get us out of the Great
Depression." The framing of it that way is intentionally manipulative in order to obscure the
role government spending had in getting us out of the depression and it is phrased that way to
sell war.
Posted by: rufus magister | Jun 1, 2015 9:08:58 PM | 21
in re 14 --
Nor did they suffer from overproduction of
T-34's,, even though they cut cost
and production time in half. But they still had sufficient to defeat Hitler, thank Ford! The Space
Station is in trouble if there are shortages of
Proton rockets.
And the Federation is still enjoying some Union leftovers in education and healthcare, see Lisa
Marie White's accounting of
why American liberals are wrong about Russia.
For an artistic take on overproduction in capitalism, see Brave New World. Ending is better
than mending!
Whatever happened to waste not, want not? Just a throwaway line....
Posted by: Copeland | Jun 1, 2015 9:12:41 PM | 22
Piotyr Berman @ 16
I think you're on the right track. Before capitalism ran amok and metastasized into a global
zombie, there were guilds. I believe the Netherlands had a rich history of those organizations.
These were created to protect the rights and privileges of members (to be sure); but they also
preserved and improved the skills, and passed these on through apprenticeship. The obsession in
consumerism is about having something brand new, and also relies on planned obsolescence, which
needs to produce shoddy goods such as plastic footwear, that will be discarded as junk in a few
months. Having things made which are durable enough to go through several cycles of repair, would
moderate the overheated production.
If labor is expunged by automation-crazed corporations; then war or revolution, or even both
at once, is possible. The cataclysmic outcome that b sketched out is then possible. Of course
it's all very short-sighted; but I once read somewhere that at the onset of the 1930s Great Depression,
the capitalists examined the option of reducing working hours for everyone so that workers might
still muddle through.
On closer examination, capitalists calculated that dumping workers into the trash heap
would add a few dollars more to the corporate bottom line, and be more agreeable to shareholders.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Jun 1, 2015 9:46:47 PM | 23
@b
Since you mentioned Karl Marx, the exclusion of a very valid third option, revolutionary war/class
struggle, makes itself evident. From the trend we witnessed after WWII, we cannot expect as you
correctly noted, a redistribution of wealth out of the greedy and gluttonous transatlantic empire
and its minions, since concentration, centralization and consolidation of capital has been the
order of the day ever since. The other major trend after WWII has been imperial wars, either by
proxy or direct intervention, fought against countries that followed the path to independence
from colonial powers by means of revolutionary wars, in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The potential
for another period of revolutionary war is real, given the abject misery of the wretched of the
earth, which have been left with nothing to lose but their chains. The main obstacle they face
is the lack of a scientific tool to interpret their current predicament, and at the same time
provide them with a vision of the social paradigm they aspire at, out of the ruins left of their
societies. With its inherent limitations given by dogma, Marxism was that tool for Mao, Lumumba,
Ben-Bella, Ho Chi Minh, Castro, and many other African, Asian and Latin American leaders who took
upon their shoulders to shake their peripheral dependency. Many of them were successful in their
revolutionary endeavors, and were able to trace an independent path for their societies, even
if burdened with all the problems typical of the "third world." Nevertheless, even before the
fall of the Soviet Union, Marx and Marxism were thrown under a pile of dead dogs, even more after
the fall, which was attributed to the utter failure of Marxism as a social science.
Marx and Marxism were part of the "end of history," a thing of the past, a post-Hegelian utopian
philosophy whose ultimate results were the creation of dystopian societies…until the crisis of
2007, when suddenly everybody wanted to understand WTF is a cyclical crisis, and why do they happen.
Das Kapital became a best seller in Germany and beyond; becoming a model for new works tailored
after Marx's statistically saturated magnus opus, e.g. Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-First
Century, " and others. Despite all the intellectually gifted resisters to the empire, and the
vast expansion of knowledge of the digital age, no new revolutionary theory has appeared, able
to inspire the masses of dispossessed as Marxism did at the turn of the XIX c., one that changed
the course of history forever during the XX c.
It is in this vacuum, a modern epistemological crisis, that the neocons, bastard children of
Trotskyism, took ownership of Trotsky's "Theory of Permanent Revolution," and turned it into a
counterrevolutionary instrument for their nefarious global domination purposes. Hence revolutions
became bastardized, categorized by "colors" or "seasons" according to the whims of the vulgar
ruling elites, and lost their power to change societies from the bottom up. This crisis of knowledge
of their own socio-economic/political conditions are having a profound effect on the masses worldwide,
who in many instances rise up against their oppressors, e.g. Egypt/Arab "Spring," without a leadership,
without a clear vision of their goals, without a social agenda that guides their movements, and
they end up getting crushed or coopted by the new rulers, toys for the empire games of regime
change. These are the "Twitter" and "Facebook" so-called "revolutions," mass movements with no
direction, no aim, and no strategy for social change. What kind of society did the Egyptians,
Tunisians, et al want? Did they have a program for the society they wanted to build? Was there
a clear strategy and tactics to achieve their goals? "Crisis," say Gramsci, that giant of Italian
Marxism, "is when the old has not died and the new has not been born." Humanity is now facing
an epistemological crisis of galactic proportions, in serious need of a new revolutionary theory
that, like Marxism in the XIX/XX c., gives the masses a vision of a future to build with their
own hands, and hope there is a better world other than sweat-shops, slavery, toiling without rewards,
exploitation, misery, crime, and an ever-growing gap between the ruling elites and the working
masses.
@12, Sutton is an ass. He pushes the theory that Communism and Fascism are equally bad and
what is needed is some mystical third way: Libertarians with their squirrel rifles hunkerin down
behind cotton bales. So Wall St. offered Lenin free cash, and he took it! Well, duh!
The motto of new liberty must be, "Dissolve it, start over!"
PokeTheTruth@18- I tend to agree, with the caveat that plenty people need to be held accountable.
Texas might be getting that idea.
Posted by: rufus magister | Jun 1, 2015 10:44:18 PM | 27
PB @ 16, Copeland at 22
Historians of the United Provinces point out that Holland and her allied provinces lacked a
sufficient population base to administer and defend the holdings she gained in her revolt against
Spain ("The Eighty Years War"). With the loss of revenue, croqetten and circuses became less affordable.
The House of Orange were elevated from elected Statholders to Kings, the thinking being a monarchy
would better keep the lower classes down than a republic. This environment proved conducive to
the spread of revolutionary ideas in the Low Countries after 1789.
Historian of the later Renaissance attribute the decline of the urban republics to several
factors. The prevailing aristocratic values induced merchant families to move their capital from
commercial and industrial operations to urban and rural real estate -- especially country tracts
that came with patents of nobility. Failing that, you could, like the Medici, subvert the Republic
with wealth and buy a title from the Papacy or Holy Roman Emperor. And a more mundane factor --
they ran out of good shipbuilding timber.
England for her part had a large population. It had plenty of timber -- North America was a
shipwright's wet dream, and before this, measures prioritized available timber for maritime uses.
When elites think protecting domestic markets and workers will add to their bottom line, they
will. But if the see money to be made in "outsourcing" and "off-shoring", well, away the factories,
jobs, salaries, and purchases from suppliers go.
England began to lose her superiority in textiles and iron and steel to cheaper American and
German production. And these two rivals took advantage of what Gershenkron has called "the advantage
of the latecomer." The major industrial expansions of both took place in the Second Industrial
Revolution, where steel, chemicals, and electrics were the new driving technologies, and both
were leaders in these fields. After a rearguard action up to World War II, they accepted de-industrialization
whole-hearted under Thatcher.
PTT at 18 -- The elite will be totally fine with abstention. Less voters to bribe. Not only
will things continue as they were, we'll have to endure fools like David Brooks lecturing us on
our lack of civic engagement.
Go to the polls. If you can't bring yourself to vote for the left(over) parties down the ballot,
write in you favorite choice -- "none of the above" will do. And not just for President, do it
for all the races. The rightists will bring more of the same, only with more Pharisee-style false
piety or boring Ayn Rand novels. Friends don't let friends vote Tea Party.
Lone Wolf at 23 -- Time permits me only to say -- Gramsci Rules!
Posted by: meofios | Jun 1, 2015 10:55:26 PM | 28
I think the over-production we see is caused by zombie companies all around the world, that
don't generate any profit, sustained by zero interest rate loans, over produce goods, causing
a glut of products, and cause price deflation.
The 'elites' spend billions of dollars every election cycle to encourage or frighten people
into the voting booth. Without that 'consent of the people' their minions have no mandate or legal
right to rule over us. Throwing your vote away by voting for or against someone or even writing
FU on the ballot is still supporting the corrupt system that they will continue to use to rule
and if voting could change anything, it would be illegal.
This doesn't mean that elections and voting may not someday be useful again but there is no
possibility they can now be used to change our corrupt system.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 2, 2015 1:32:21 AM | 30
I agree with that.
Lone Wolf @ #23's Gramisci perspective is on the money.
Russell Brand, my favourite non-revolutionary revolutionary, makes the (laboured) point that
a govt elected by less than 50% of eligible voters cannot claim legitimacy.
But Gramisci was righter than everyone else in pointing out that "Crisis is when the old has
not died and the new has not been born."
It should be obvious to everyone, by now, that Twitter and Facebook "revolutions" aren't revolutions,
or journeys, and have no useful or coherent destination.
Posted by: Chipnik | Jun 2, 2015 7:25:37 AM | 31
b
This is the 'atto-fox problem' in biology, addressed by the Lotka-Volterra equation in Brauer,
F. and Castillo-Chavez, C., Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology, Springer-Verlag,
(2000), and many others, the bifurcation relationship allowing two mutually independent steady-state
solutions, one with higher predation and lower prey population used to justify higher resource
extraction rates, ...but it remains just a theory and requires a rigorous definition of who is
the 'prey'.
Is the prey the poor and downtrodden? No, those are the losers.
We can all agree the 'prey' is ultimately the energy needed to continue surviving for another
day, not the staid pedantic 19thC Marxist 'Das Kapital', but just the 'real' value of evolutionary
currency and trade. We've transferred the value of energy into gold, then fiat paper today 1's
and 0's, and now there's too many of them. They'really part of a non-viable fractional-reserve
usury-based ecosystem that's running out of balance, Koyaanisqatsi.
The rich prey on the energy developed by the poor through usury and credit, but also, the socialist
state preys upon the destitute as a source of $Bs public program, using public tax extraction
to generate private wealth in much the same way as usury and credit. More rice tents!!
If we de-anthropomorphize the Marxist class-struggle dialectic, and the rabbinical Maker-Taker
meme, the answer pops right out like a jujube: not overproduction, not QEn, not oligarchs and
monopolies, but usury and taxes.
Wah-lah. Usury. Taxes. Same as it ever was. Que sera, sera.
Posted by: rufus magister | Jun 2, 2015 8:16:58 AM | 32
Wayout at 29 --
The standard line of us reds is that participation in elections is a useful tool for educating
the masses and marshaling and mobilizing progressive forces. And that mass action, e.g., the general
strike, is the real means of social change.
Bhagavan Chippy at 31 --
I'd stick to physics and Eastern mysticism.
Predation occurs between, not within species. Socialism is about the workers controlling the
means of production that they service. Social welfare capitalism bought their birthright for "a
mess of pottage" (Gen. 25: 29-34). But austerity is taking that off the table.
I find the overtones of the "rabbinical meme" and the emphasis on usury and taxes disturbing.
See this handy comparative chart; fascism is "Strongly against international financial markets
and usury." The Abolition of Income Tax and Usury Party is recent spawn of that brood.
Our own home-grown TeaBaggers don't feel too good about it either.
You might consider a clarification or restatement of your position.
Posted by: paulmeli | Jun 2, 2015 8:28:43 AM | 33
"We've transferred the value of energy into gold, then fiat paper today 1's and 0's, and now
there's too many of them"
Well, there's too much savings (accumulated financial wealth) but not enough spending. We know
this because we have too much unemployment. Properly targeted spending cures unemployment.
Spending is a function mainly of money printing, existing money (previously created) mostly
just earns interest and so is parasitic to the system in the net (economic rent), which leads
to a paradox.
In the old days in the U.S. between 1933 and the mid-1960's the top marginal tax rate remained
around 90% and then around 70% until Reagan was elected.
This maintained some sort of balance between money printing and saving. Now, money creation
just piles up at the top which creates huge inequalities of power.
Posted by: geoff29 | Jun 2, 2015 9:24:35 AM | 34
It's simple to conclude that the "ruling class" and their spokes-people are if not absolutely
greedy and mendacious, then at least criminally stupid.
But I think that's short-sighted. The financial crisis could be resolved in a moment's notice,
since money is more or less an "imaginary" construct, especially now that it's just 1s and 0s,
as was mentioned. The population is clamoring for "higher wages," but if we here were the small
ruling class, we must know that "higher wages" means more mouths to feed from a growing population.
Or, it means more disgruntled minions crying for "revolution" carrying pitch forks to the very
gates of the gated communities and wilderness tracts where the very wealthy keep themselves concealed,
when calamity strikes and food is scarce.
And the "ruling class" despite their equivocations, surely discusses amongst themselves
the growing unsustainability of the ever encroaching environmental calamities, and dwindling resources,
etc. What wars are being threatened between great powers, are are not about the resolution
of world wide perils in terms of repairing the global over indulgence in carbon based technologies,
in fact they seem to be based on increasing their use and further extracting scarce resources
and more rapidly burning down the house.
Intelligent discussions are conducted here at MOA, it would be foolish to conclude that
some semblance of intelligent discussions are not also held in the upper rooms and chambers of
power, stripped of pretense and falsehood. If so, if one of us were sitting with those chosen
few, I'm sure we would come to the conclusion that we were in a serious fix. And our backs are
up against the wall. "Austerity" would be pushed to its extremities to decrease productivity and
reduce the population through Urie's principle of immiseration.
Put yourself in the shoes of this ruling class, our primary MO would no doubt be self-preservation
from the encroaching revolutions and chaos, and destruction, and a preservation of some kind of
status quo. Otherwise, all that we had, were we sitting on the porch overlooking our estate, would
be gone.
If nothing else works like the current financial immiseration to reduce the current state of
affairs to a simpler and more manageable system where our ruling class rank and stature in society
remained permanent and secure (because really our whole being has been reduced to measuring ourselves
by our imagined sense of self-worth determined by our wealth, etc.) but the elimination of so
many annoying minions through some kind of controlled burn, like a war, then certainly we would
go about that?
I'm sure nothing pleases these folks more but for us to deride them constantly and poke fun
at their ineptitude and call them all sorts of "evil," because that would just be so much more
grist for the mill.
===
Posted by: ralphieboy | Jun 2, 2015 10:25:43 AM | 36
There is a famous anecdote about a General Motors executive showing off their newest automated
assembly line to a United Auto Workers Union boss and remarking "Not one of them is a union member!"
To which the UAW boss replied, "And not one of them is a GM customer, either."
Posted by: Willy2 | Jun 2, 2015 11:15:49 AM | 40
There's a lack of demand worldwide because since say 1981 workers/employees have received wage
increases below inflation. In that regard workers have seen their purchasing power being reduced
for over 30 years. No wonder, households/workers aren't able or willing spend lots of money.
From 1981 up to 2008 households/workers were willing to increase their debtload. By going deeper
into debt those households were able to keep their spending at a reasonable level.
But since 2008 households are reluctant to go deeper into debt and that has weakened the worldwide
economy.
As long as workers don't get wage increases at or above inflation (levels) or are willing increase
their debtloads (again) there's no chance for a economic recovery.
Posted by: HnH | Jun 2, 2015 11:23:22 AM | 41
b,
you normally publish highly insightful analyses and information nuggets that I have trouble
finding elsewhere. On this topic, however, you jumped short.
Yes, we are struggling with overproduction and lack of consumption, but it is important to
know where this development comes from. If you look at historical data, then you might realize
that the purchasing power of people in the Western World started decreasing at the start of the
80s last century. The *growth* in purchasing power decreased since the 1960s. And debt is a significant,
but small, part of it. The average growth in GDP has been consistently shrinking since the 1960s.
Can you even remember a time, when the economy in one of the Western countries has been growing
by more than 4% YoY? I don't. For Germany you have to go back to before the 70s oil crisis to
find two years with a consecutive growth of 4% for more than one year. I wasn't even born then.
The main problem is this: We have to invest more and more energy to pump the same amount
of oil, mine the same amount of ores and produce the same amount of food. And there are more and
more people living right now.
This main problem, the diminishing returns, makes it that people have to spend more and more
to afford the basic necessities. Corporations and enterprises react to their diminishing sales
by cutting their costs to pay their loans. The easiest way to cutting costs is letting go of workers.
Since 2008, the crash happened after the crash of the oil price, Western Central Banks
needed to keep their interest rates a 0%, because there was no growth. If they are ever crazy
enough to raise interest rates, they will be blamed for the worst market crash in human history.
The reason is that we have reached the limits to growth. There is no more growth to be
had for the industrialized civilization. That is over. For good. Unless we find an unlimited energy
source that is very, very cheap. None is on the horizon so far.
Currently, a country can only produce growth, for a very short time, at the expense of others.
That too will stop. Then, in a few years at the latest, global GDP will start to shrink. That
is when the wars will start in earnest. That is when the killing and dying will start in earnest.
That killing and dying will not stop, until the world will have found a means to reduce its
energy consumption to the physical and geological realities out there. That will take a while,
and I have no clue how the world will look like.
Best wishes,
HnH
Posted by: ǝn⇂ɔ | Jun 2, 2015 11:38:36 AM | 43
Sorry, but I again disagree.
First of all, the robots in the example are there because there the Chinese labor pool has
been growing slower than the economy for years now.
Secondly, robots need to be made by somebody. They cost lots of money. They have to be maintained
and often upgraded. The physical operation of the plant might take 90% less workers, but the remaining
workers are paid as much or more as the previous entire work force.
Thirdly, the production noted in the article isn't for China - at least, not yet. It is for
the 1st world. Thus the "replacement" of the worker is a dynamic of cheaper labor elsewhere rather
than actual replacement with mechanization.
As for economics: an entire series of fallacies.
a) Overproduction. While I will certainly agree that the 1st world can do with less, this is
irrelevant. Every labor saving device ever created has ultimately had the labor savings spent
on higher standards of living. There is nothing to indicate any change in this dynamic. Thus while
we no longer have tens and hundreds of thousands of workers making automobiles, we now have tens
and hundreds of thousands of workers doing other things like fracking oil and natural gas, servicing
the cars via a nationwide array of repair, refueling, and upkeep (car washes, etc). Equally, we
don't drive Model T's anymore. Ford used to be nearly entirely self sufficient outside of the
metals - this is no longer true. Ford doesn't make computer chips or any of hundreds of parts
in present day Fords.
b) Labor isn't the problem - consumption is. In terms of overall productivity, Americans as
a whole are producing more than ever before. Hours worked has been inching down, but hours of
work isn't what dictates the actual output - it is a function of productivity times hours worked,
and that product continues to increase overall.
The primary difference between today and post World War II is that of the economic rewards.
Americans who aren't in the managerial class get paid a smaller percentage of the overall production
created than ever before. This also has been decreasing for decades.
Thus the problem isn't one of too much productivity or too much automation - the problem is
one where the rich get all the money.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Jun 2, 2015 12:08:31 PM | 44
"The main problem is this: We have to invest more and more energy to pump the same amount
of oil, mine the same amount of ores and produce the same amount of food."
This may well be true, but if one looks at the history of spending growth (or more accurately
public investment) by the U.S. federal government one will see that spending growth suddenly dropped
by 1/3rd in the early 1980's (around the beginning of Ronald Reagan's presidency). This can be
observed visually very easily by looking at the FRED series FGEXPND on a log scale…the breakpoint
is obvious and so is the one at around 2010.
U.S. federal spending has averaged 7% since WWII overall…about 9% through 1985 dropping to
about 5% thereafter. Since 2010 growth has been an anemic 1.6%.
It's no wonder GDP growth has been on decline since the 80's, and it's no wonder we are experiencing
a slowdown now.
Posted by: james | Jun 2, 2015 12:34:50 PM | 46
@43 ǝn⇂ɔ quote.. "Thus the problem isn't one of too much productivity or too much automation
- the problem is one where the rich get all the money."
who is buying the produce ǝn⇂ɔ ?
Posted by: dh | Jun 2, 2015 12:38:22 PM | 47
@46 A lot of money goes into remodelling. Look at the proliferation of home improvement stores.
Posted by: james | Jun 2, 2015 1:22:48 PM | 48
@47 dh.. the big money is in the mic/fic complex... chump change in most other areas relatively
speaking.. i think the big money is coming from gov't spending.. it is a self sustaining vicious
circle for everyone.. that's my simplistic rendition of it! who pays for those orange jump suits
anyway?
Posted by: dh | Jun 2, 2015 1:33:19 PM | 49
@48 Not everybody in the US is in jail or on food stamps. There is a lot of disposable income
in the US. People buy new vehicles, improve their homes, upgrade their entertainment systems,
send kids to college, go on trips. The trick is to keep interest rates low and keep printing money.
So far it seems to be working.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Jun 2, 2015 3:09:14 PM | 52
@geoff29 @34
And the "ruling class" despite their equivocations, surely discusses amongst themselves the
growing unsustainability of the ever encroaching environmental calamities, and dwindling resources,
etc.
I am sure they discuss those and many other subjects under heaven, problem starts with
their conclusions. Ever heard of the
"smart idiot effect"?
(...)Buried in the Pew report was a little chart showing the relationship between one's political
party affiliation, one's acceptance that humans are causing global warming, and one's level
of education. And here's the mind-blowing surprise: For Republicans, having a college degree
didn't appear to make one any more open to what scientists have to say. On the contrary, better-educated
Republicans were more skeptical of modern climate science than their less educated brethren.
Only 19 percent of college-educated Republicans agreed that the planet is warming due to human
actions, versus 31 percent of non-college-educated Republicans.
For Democrats and Independents,
the opposite was the case. More education correlated with being more accepting of climate science-among
Democrats, dramatically so. The difference in acceptance between more and less educated Democrats
was 23 percentage points.
This was my first encounter with what I now like to call the "smart idiots" effect:
The fact that politically sophisticated or knowledgeable people are often more biased, and
less persuadable, than the ignorant. It's a reality that generates endless frustration
for many scientists-and indeed, for many well-educated, reasonable people.(...)
I'm sure nothing pleases these folks more but for us to deride them constantly and poke
fun at their ineptitude and call them all sorts of "evil," because that would just be so much
more grist for the mill.
Well, their lack of awareness is legendary, and their indifference to their damage on the planet
and the suffering of others is their trademark. They might laugh all the way to the bank, in total
ignorance of the legacy their greed and possessiveness are leaving in their wake.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Jun 2, 2015 3:52:00 PM | 53
A Report on an Interdisciplinary Wargame conducted by the
U.S. Army War College
Carlisle, Pennsylvania
Posted by: james | Jun 2, 2015 4:04:04 PM | 54
@49 dh.. i know that but thanks for the reminder..almost zero interest rates is the name of the
game and has been for some time.. if people had a different interest rate on their line of credit
- the jig would be up.. for now it is 'free money' with anyone silly enough to not 'invest' in
the wall st casino, or is in any way pragmatic financially - will watch what money they have devalue
quicker then you can say 'quicksand'..and, i am always reminded of the racial divide when i think
of the states - food stamps verses big brand new automobiles.. what a weird culture.. canada isn't
a lot different in some regards.. it is and it isn't..
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/karl_marx_was_right_20150531
by Chris Hedges
Karl Marx exposed the peculiar dynamics of capitalism, or what he called "the bourgeois mode
of production." He foresaw that capitalism had built within it the seeds of its own destruction.
He knew that reigning ideologies-think neoliberalism-were created to serve the interests of the
elites and in particular the economic elites, since "the class which has the means of material
production at its disposal, has control at the same time over the means of mental production"
and "the ruling ideas are nothing more than the ideal expression of the dominant material relationships
… the relationships which make one class the ruling one." He saw that there would come a day when
capitalism would exhaust its potential and collapse.
~~~
The final stages of capitalism, Marx wrote, would be marked by developments that are intimately
familiar to most of us. Unable to expand and generate profits at past levels, the capitalist system
would begin to consume the structures that sustained it. It would prey upon, in the name of austerity,
the working class and the poor, driving them ever deeper into debt and poverty and diminishing
the capacity of the state to serve the needs of ordinary citizens.
~~~
The corporations that own the media have worked overtime to sell to a bewildered public the fiction
that we are enjoying a recovery. Employment figures, through a variety of gimmicks, including
erasing those who are unemployed for over a year from unemployment rolls, are a lie, as is nearly
every other financial indicator pumped out for public consumption. We live, rather, in the twilight
stages of global capitalism, which may be surprisingly more resilient than we expect, but which
is ultimately terminal. Marx knew that once the market mechanism became the sole determining factor
for the fate of the nation-state, as well as the natural world, both would be demolished. No one
knows when this will happen. But that it will happen, perhaps within our lifetime, seems certain.
"The old is dying, the new struggles to be born, and in the interregnum there are many morbid
symptoms," Antonio Gramsci wrote.
What comes next is up to us.
Posted by: ToivoS | Jun 2, 2015 8:18:47 PM | 57
lonewolf #52
Your comment reminds me of something once said by a retired law professor. "We spend considerable
effort looking for bright young students for admittance into law school. Then we spend the next
three years beating out their common sense".
Having been involved in graduate school education during my career that statement also applies
to grad student education in English and Social Science departments.
In Western MSM the 17.6% year on year GDP drop in Ukraine is mentioned as a just a number without
any context. But during the Great Depression the US GDP contracted "only" 25%. In any given year of
that depression it did not drop 17%. Also, in the case of Ukraine, it has already underwent its first
Great Depression, which was worse than the US depression during the 1990s. So we are looking at The
Second Great Depression in Ukraine. This is the meaning of this 17.6 drop. Ukrainian pensioners are
brought by brave Western neocons with the help of local fifth column to the real starvation level. This
is an important story and yet Western MSM ignore it much like they ignore now flight MH17. Instead we
have overoptimistic "confidence enhancing" forecasts from Moody's, the World Bank, the IMF, and other
western agencies. Which are pure political fluff. when in reality we need to state that USA neocons
(see Nulandgate) destroyed the
Ukraine economics and plunge the country into another Great Depression.
Ukraine earns around $3 Billion a year from gas transit fees. How is the loss of this income going
to impact Ukraine, in view of its medium-term economic forecast?
Anyone who has not sleepwalked through the gas-price squabble between Russia and Ukraine since
the Great Freedom Jubilee known as EuroMaidan is aware that Russia has grown fed up with Ukraine's
posturing and loose grip on reality – neither being a quality that is endearing or inspirational
of confidence in its reliability as a gas-transit country for Europe. Russia has had projects underway
for some time to gradually reduce its reliance on Ukraine as a gas-transit corridor for Russian gas
since the stand-off in 2009, in which Ukraine was siphoning off gas intended for Europe for its own
use free of charge, while Russia was expected to just make up the difference – Ukraine was confident
Russia was without alternatives, since it would not dare shut off Europe's gas. Which it did, of
course, initiating a panic and a lasting reputation for Russia as an unreliable energy partner. Nothing
much was ever said about Ukraine stealing gas; Europe made a few comments to the effect that there
was wrong on both sides, and left it at that, and ever afterward the narrative was that they knew
Russia accused Ukraine of stealing gas, but where was the evidence?
Russia constructed the Nord Stream pipeline, and partially completed South Stream, the two of
which together would handle the entirety of gas shipped to Europe, without going through Ukraine.
The EU dug in its heels, and went on about how everyone needs rules and Russia would have to abide
by the Third Energy Package which said the same company cannot own both the gas and the pipeline,
and lots of other twaddle although it simply hands out exemptions to its own suppliers, and Russia
canceled South Stream. The EU was jubilant – it had put those Russkies in their place, by God!
Which brings us, skipping over many other details which are of great import but not germane to
the gas situation, to where we are now. Russia has announced it will construct Turkish Stream instead,
delivering the same amount forecast for South Stream – 63 BCm – to the Turkish/Greek border. If Europe
wants gas, it can build pipeline infrastructure to take it from that point. If not, fine – start
busting up Granny's piano for firewood. And none –
as of 2019 at
the latest but probably around 2017 – will go through Ukraine.
Ukraine earns around $3 Billion a year from gas transit fees. How is the loss of this income going
to impact Ukraine, in view of its medium-term economic forecast?
As a starting point, it would
be hard to envision a more dramatically effective program of economic ruin than what has been done
to Ukraine by its western friends. The currency has
fallen off a cliff,
averaging 7.29 to the U.S. dollar between 2002 and 2015, spiking to a record low value of 33.5 to
the dollar in February of 2015 and currently at a ruinous 20.44. Whoever wrote the summary apparently
wanted to camouflage the moment of disaster by averaging the value of the hryvnia from 2002 to 2015,
because the value declined steadily throughout 2014 and can be traced almost to the minute to the
Euromaidan demonstrations, accelerating to a screaming power dive after they turned violent and cratering
with the collapse of the Debaltseve cauldron. The stock market
has fallen to a quarter
of its value in 2008. The most recent
GDP Growth Rate
is a contraction of 3.8% in the final quarter of 2014 – certainly worsening since then – and annually
is a jaw-dropping
contraction of 17.6%. Helpfully – I meant that sarcastically – the
official unemployment
rate has soared to 9.7% over 2013's low of 7.6%, and has been over 9% since the beginning of
2014, while inflation has
bulleted its way
up to 60.9%. All these are figures the state statistics service will admit to. Meanwhile, its
hapless government merrily enacts a debt moratorium, authorizing itself to put a hold on payments
to its creditors, even as it
doubles "defense spending".
Anyway, on to the sometimes comical dynamics of the European gas business. I think my favourite
is the smirking strut executed by various countries as they claim to be "weaning themselves off of
Russian gas" by importing gas from some other European country that is a net importer of Russian
gas. Like Poland, for example. Kiev was quite proud of itself when, in 2012, it
reduced its imports of Russian gas by taking delivery of gas from RWE in Poland on a trial basis.
These imports continued into 2013 – a year in which Poland (which is also "weaning itself off of
Russian gas")
took 60% of its gas from Russia. They've wised up now, though, and plan to import significantly
more gas from Germany…which
gets 38% of its gas from Russia. Oh, and they're building an LNG terminal into which they plan
to import LNG from Qatar via tankers. More expensive than pipeline gas, of course, which is just
good economics by European standards, but at least they can fly a Polish flag on the LNG terminal.
You just can't put a price on national pride, can you? And they'll be able – in their dreams – to
say goodbye to gas imports someday from that evil undemocratic Stalin dictatorship of Russia in favour
of freedom gas from the smiling Qataris, ruled through a
constitutional monarchy
in which the Emir exercises absolute power and whose heirs come from the male branch of the al-Thani
family.
Meanwhile, Ukraine itself remains the fifth-heaviest consumer of natural gas in Europe, at some
55 BCm annually. Mind you, it should realize significant savings in consumption by the almost-complete
loss of its heavy industry sector, most of which is in the east – every cloud has a silver lining,
what? But Ukraine's domestic production peaked at 68 BCm forty years back, has been in decline since
then and now amounts to about 20 BCm – less than half its current consumption. So in order for Ukraine
to wean itself off of Russian gas, it is going to have to either cut its consumption in half or buy
reverse-flowed gas from other European countries – using mostly handout money, since it is going
to lose $3 Billion off the top of its GDP which is currently contracting at a rate of more than 17%
per year. Put that way, it doesn't sound too hopeful, does it? Mind you, the EU is doing its bit
to help by insisting on reforms which have doubled the price of gas for household use, even as the
currency has shrunk to about a third of its previous value.
Good article. It is peculiar how the 17.6% year on year GDP drop in Ukraine is mentioned as
a ho-hum statistic without any context. The US GDP contracted 25% during the Great Depression.
In any given year of that depression it did not drop almost 18%. Also, in the case of Ukraine,
it has already underwent a Great Depression worse than the original during the 1990s and has *not*
fully recovered. So we are looking at an epic economic contraction since 1990. This is a big story
and yet there is no spotlight on it whatsoever. Instead we have those retarded "forecasts" from
Moody's, the World Bank, the IMF, and other western agencies which are pure political fluff.
On another forum a well informed poster was confused by what year on year meant. As you correctly
note in your article it is basically a measure of the relative change in the GDP after one year.
The only way Ukraine's GDP could hit those western "forecasts" in 2015 would be if it had a surge
of growth in the second half of the year. This ain't gonna happen. In fact the decline will continue
into the second quarter and the rate of decline will decline in the second half due to the fact
that it is compared to the second half of 2014 which was already in full bore recession. The first
quarter of 2015 dropped almost 7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. I expect there to be
quarter to quarter drops in Ukraine's GDP during all of 2015. This translates into a GDP drop
in 2015 of between 20% and 30% depending on how rapidly the collapse slows later this year.
As for the EU and its racist, delusional hate aimed at Russia. It will reap what it has sown.
For some reason some analysts think that if Iran is allowed to ship gas to the EU this will undermine
Russia. They are missing the mark. Russia will be happy to have the EU supplied with its gas from
the Middle East. Everyone with a clue will see the implications. Russia's own production will
decline in the long run as is inevitable and Russia has now the access to the huge Chinese market
at a reasonable price. The stooges in Brussels will be remembering the good old days of Russian
supply.
In a major policy shift, the Serbian prime minister said his country will accept U.S.
calls to reduce dependency on Russian gas by adding an American-backed pipeline that would
bring gas to Europe from Azerbaijan.
"Regarding energy safety, energy security, we are ready to diversify the sources of gas
for Serbia, which is very important for our American friends as well," Aleksandar Vucic told
The Associated Press in an interview.
The United States has been encouraging Balkan and other states to move forward with the
Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, which will take Azeri gas from the Caspian Sea to Italy, rather than
setting its hopes on another project that would pipe Russian gas through Turkey.
The West has accused Russia of using gas as a tool to increase its political influence
over countries like Serbia…
###
Poor Vucic, I wonder what they threatened him with to get him to get this empty propaganda
statement victory for The Empire? Another visit from Fruit Cake McCain, or maybe that they'd let
the Albanians tear another strip of Serbian land for their Naturalist Albania project (where Albanians
can walk naked freely and their corrupt politicians, institutions and organized crime syndicates
can hold naked bbqs together without fear of arrest). If he played his role sensibly, he would
have pretended to resist and got something decent in return. I doubt it.
…As far as I can see and from what I have read so far, all pipelines within Europe will
be interconnected, regardless of transit agreements or energy packages. Russia doesn't care once
it is in as you have already pointed out…
And most of us here (unlike the West) understand fully that once the Russian gas arrives at
the Turkish/Greek border, that's it. They don't care what happens next.
So, the news is just fluff and doesn't change the fundamentals. Serbia did not say it would
dump TESLA for TAP. There still needs to be a pipeline and thus interconnection of pipelines now
looks inevitable. If Moscow is funding TESLA, then it will be a straight forward commercial deal.
On another level, the timing does say a lot. As quite a few people have pointed out already,
the current problems in Macedonia also have extremely convenient timing for The Empire's geopolitical
goals, so it would be remiss of the US not to take advantage (whether they are behind the
crisis in Macedonia or not) and put the squeeze on the US. Still, it seems like an awful amount
of effort for very little in concrete result. I suppose on this level it is just "If you don't
use it, you lose it".
Mmmm, yes; we've discussed that on several occasions, and this is just more ludicrous posturing
by Captain Indispensable. As discussed in the final paragraph of
this post, 25% of the natural gas consumed in Europe comes from Russia, by far the largest
supplier. Azerbaijan is not even mentioned as a supplier, but
as discussed here, its president – Ilham Aliyev – was awarded the unenviable title of Most
Corrupt Person of 2012 by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. The flows Europe
will be looking for exceed the Shah Deniz field's capacity.
Perhaps someday Europe will come
to rue the day it allowed its decision-making to be done in Washington and rubber-stamped by Brussels,
although it is likely to make Aliyev a happy man in the short term. But that day is evidently
not today. And so Europe will blunder about, trying to do the will of its master, until the time
to engineer hookup to Russian gas supplies has run out. Then it will squeal that Putin is using
energy as a weapon. It has failed to note that if Russia really needed to deliver gas directly
to the consumer – paying all transit expenses itself – it would do so, and its present unconcern
is not affected, but an actual reflection of its lack of concern whether Europe wants gas or not.
Because it knows that Europe will want gas, because it can't get it anywhere else in the volumes
it needs, and nothing will bring prices up like a little healthy panic. Predictable as death and
taxes.
Perhaps in the near future, the coming of spring will be reflected as much by Europe's cockiness
regarding its gas requirements as much as the appearance of robins. Cocky in spring, desperate
in autumn. Not this year, because its gas will still come through Ukraine. But keep an eye on
the volume it takes. An interesting note
here is that of the 63 BCm Turkish
Stream is expected to carry annually (construction started earlier this month), only 47 BCm of
it is expected to be made available to Europe at the Turkish/Greek border.
If you look at the language Sefcovic
used back in March, he spoke of Europe as "a big client" and moaned about Russia making all
these decisions without consulting "Gazprom's long-term European customers". It is fairly obvious
that Europe knows all its mouthing off about weaning itself off of Russian gas is just lip service
to please Washington – wean itself on to…what? As an old naval saying goes, don't let your mouth
get your face in trouble.
With all the messing around, they will not get ANY pipeline ready in time. Then Russia will generously
sell them (at THEIR price) through Ukraine, by then run out of bullets; they'll let Ukraine have
some transit money, otherwise they'll start burning bodies for heat.
EU of course will still squeal about "playing politics with gas".
Yes, a couple of observations on that note: one, Miller says Gazprom
expects to increase its gas exports
to Europe this year by something like 5% over 2014, and forecasts Russia's share of supply
to Europe may increase to 35% of the total, based on the decline in production in European
countries. The writing is on the wall, Europe; I don't know how much clearer it needs
to be that you must stop fannying about and pretending to have all these alternatives, you just
can't make up your mind so everybody should be paying court to you to gain your favour. Two, Europe
is still trying to sweeten the pill for Bulgaria to repay it for standing up to South Stream and
getting it cancelled – they're
going to be a hub of gas distribution for Romanian gas. We'll see.
There was a piece the other day that Russia's gas supply decreased to about 23% whilst Norway's
increased to 29 odd percent. I can't find the source now obviously, but in my brief search for
the source, I came across this:
Britain's dependence on Russian energy is set to grow after Centrica announced a deal to increase
significantly the amount of gas it buys from Gazprom to 4.16 billion cubic metres (bcm) a year.
The agreement is the direct result of dwindling North Sea supplies and will see the British
Gas owner increase the amount of the gas it imports from the Russian state-controlled giant by
70 per cent.
The UK needs about 70 bcm of gas a year for heating and electricity and the deal means Gazprom
will be meeting nearly 5 per cent of the country's demands….
…However, because Centrica has struck its agreement with Gazprom's UK subsidiary, which can
source supplies from outside Russia if need be, it is expected to be less vulnerable to problems
relating to Russia.
A Centrica spokesman said he was confident that the subsidiary, Gazprom Marketing & Trading,
would be able to fulfil its contract: "Russia provides about 30 per cent of Europe's gas imports
of about 440bcm a year," he said. "Without Russian volumes, Europe's supply and demand balance
would change significantly, impacting the ability of the UK to import materially from continental
Europe, or impacting the cost of doing so."…
…Russia has been a "reliable supplier of gas all the way through the Cold War", and it needed
European demand too, he added.
Well, well, well dear readers! In to the mouth of the beast… And after the UK is forcing Fridman
to sell his North Sea assets he bought from the Germans.
I would guess that ..can source supplies from outside Russia if need be.. would be from
storage in Germany and all the new storage in Europe (some of which Gazprom has funded) built
since the Ukraine cut off supplies in 2009. I also guess that as I've read Germany is only using
<~50% of Nord Stream capacity, Russia could simply more in to available storage. Add to that recent
plans to double Nord Steam's capacity and Gazprom has supplies covered whatever the Uke's try,
though dependent on transmission from Germany, Byelorussia etc.
It is all quite hilarious though. For a laugh and If Europe pays for it, Russia could also
ship LNG to Europe (the proposed new terminal at Krk, Lithuania and other terminals) It will still
be cheaper than the stuff coming from elsewhere too and for a long time before the Leviathan field
starts development.
Honestly, this news shows what a massive gulf there is between what the business people do
and what we hear from the PPNN and the porkiticians. One only makes sense if your completely ignore
the other! Crazy mofos.
As for Brussels, they can continue doing a fine job of feeding their private parts in to their
own meat-grinder whilst whistling Ode to Joy happily. They're quite good at doing it!
It's hard to imagine Norway's share increasing significantly – and if so, not for long – since
its own supplies are in rapid decline and it is taking rapid steps to diversify away from dependence
on energy sales. But an increase for Russia over 2014 is really just getting things back up to
where they were, as 2014 marked a noticeable drop in European imports from Russia. Perhaps that's
what they were talking about.
Real world constraints don't apply to the propaganda lala land that the west is living in. It
looks more and more Orwellian every day. "Our dependence of Russian gas is declining" as the actual
consumption increases. The same as "the rations have been raised again this week".
[May 27, 2015] Ukraine is out of options
Jeremn, May 27, 2015 at 8:07 am
There may be trouble ahead. Ukraine's gas prices are set to stay high:
Vovk said, "if the price of gas bought in Europe is multiplied by the forex rate of the dollar
[against the Ukrainian hryvnia] and all the taxes are added, the final price will be higher than
the highest gas rate for households."
Heads up – it looks as if Ukraine might be getting increasingly interested – by virtue of being
out of options – in the "odious debt" escape, announcing more frequently through its official
channels that the government should not have to take responsibility for "loans borrowed by a kleptocratic
regime".
The $3 Billion owed to Russia is due at the end of this year, but if Ukraine does not manage
a debt-restructuring deal by end-June – which will entail many of its creditors taking a big haircut
or simply forgiving debt altogether – it may be ineligible for its next tranche of handouts from
the IMF and default may be all that's left.
I would just remind again at this point that all Russia has to do is nothing more than has
been done already, and Ukraine will collapse absent some heroic intervention such as the west
offering to just give it free money forever.
The west persists with its capering and grinning, convinced that it is stirring up a shitstorm
in Macedonia and that
this has Putin very worried. Get the net, for God's sake. They are apparently incapable of reading;
although on reflection, their knowledge of geography is so abysmal that perhaps there is a prevailing
belief in the west that Macedonia is part of Turkey, or stands between Turkey and the Black Sea.
From an interview Alexei Miller gave to Russia 24 in December of last year, select quotes:
"[Bulgaria] will bear significant losses due to the South Stream cancellation. Approx. €3bn
will not be invested in Bulgaria. More than 6.000 jobs will not be created. Moreover, Bulgaria will
lose its status of a transit country. For the time being, Bulgaria transits 18bcm of gas to Turkey,
Macedonia and Greece. Once the new pipeline is built, these gas volumes will go via Turkey."
"Once the new pipeline becomes operational, the role of Ukraine as a transit country will
be reduced to zero. We will of course continue providing Ukraine with the volumes it needs for the
domestic consumption, but gas deliveries to Europe will go through the alternative routes.Gas will
not pass through Ukraine or Bulgaria, but will be delivered to the EU from another side. Once the
pipeline reaches the EU, European consumers can pick up gas at the Turkey-Greece border.
In this case, the Third Energy Package norms will not be applied to these deliveries."
"In principle, the decision to abandon South Stream is the beginning of the end of Gazprom's
model when the company focused on direct gas deliveries to the end consumer in the European market.
If the consumer doesn't want the goods to be delivered to his home directly, then he has to get dressed
and go to the shop. In our case, the shop is the delivery point, which will be on the Turkish-Greek
border."
What part of "pick up gas at the Turkish-Greek border" is not sinking in? Stir up all the shit
in Macedonia you like; all it will accomplish is making it difficult for Europe to run pipeline infrastructure
itself. And if Brussels thinks it is going to be able to get enough gas, come winter of 2018 or so,
from Azerbaijan via the unicorn-patrolled Southern Gas Corridor to supply Europe's needs, it is even
more inbred and simple than I thought.
At the Riga summit yesterday (21 May) Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania signed a Joint
Declaration backing the idea of building the Eastring gas pipeline, designed to link Central with
Southeastern Europe. However the name Eastring doesn't appear in the document…
..Eastring is a proposed pipeline, a version of which is 832 kilometres long, and runs across
Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, while another version is 1274 kilometres long, and reaches Bulgaria.
One of its advantages is that Eastring uses the existing infrastructure of Eustream on Slovak
territory, which was completely renovated after the 2009 gas crisis.
It is designed to transport gas in both directions, with a capacity of 20 billion cubic
metres a year (bcm/y) at the first stage and 40 bcm/y at the final stage. Potential gas sources
for forward flows are Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iraq, Cyprus and Russia, while for the reverse
flow, it is gas from Western European hubs.
The optimistic target date for building the first
stage of the pipeline is 2018… ####
I think Hungary was already started on South Stream, before Bulgaria got trodden on to pull out
of their end.
In theory Turk Stream can be slightly redesigned to terminate in Bulgaria instead of Greece
but…. Russia has likely promised this and other help to Greece, and won't want to let them down
to benefit Bulgaria, which was weak enough to cancel South Stream. Russia did say though that
Bulgaria could get a spur line for their own needs. .But one current plan also goes through Macedonia,
and that route is a powerful shove to make them agree with Greece about the name.
Anyway having 4 EU countries agree on something the EU is against is a big first.
The only likely reverse flow customer is Ukraine, whose credit rating would not inspire me
to spend a few billion to serve just them.
"...And don't forget folks: Porky and Yats and a host of other shits that are part of the Kiev
"government" repeatedly state that Russia is an aggressor state, is at war with the Ukraine and
has invaded its eastern territory, where the Russian army presence numbers thousands. And with the same
breath they ask Russia for a discount on further gas supplies, for which previously supplied Russian
natural gas the Ukraine state owes billions."
"...Bear in mind, with their continuous shameless mendacity and double talk they may simply
be mimicking the behaviour of their mentors, whose blatant hypocrisy has long been evident,"
And don't forget folks:
Porky and Yats and a host of other shits that are part of the Kiev "government" repeatedly
state that Russia is an aggressor state, is at war with the Ukraine and has invaded its eastern
territory, where the Russian army presence numbers thousands.
And with the same breath they ask Russia for a discount on further gas supplies, for which
previously supplied Russian natural gas the Ukraine state owes billions.
They need a decent English proofreader: "by the end of the year" means a discount extension
should be agreed upon before this year ends.
What the RT headline should is, I suspect: "Ukraine asks to extend discount on Russian gas
up to the end of the year", meaning they want their present discount extended up to and including
31 December 2015.
Remember the "Are Slavs Stupid" thread of a while back?
I'm seriously beginning to believe that Ukrainians are, or at least many of their public figures
are, in that they consistently make contradictory statements in almost the same breath, which
might indicate that they have a very short memory span (surely a sign of being slow witted) or
that they are so stupid not to recognize that the clear stupidity of their contradictory statements
must surely be recognized by most people who are in possession of a normal intellect.
Bear in mind, with their continuous shameless mendacity and double talk they may simply
be mimicking the behaviour of their mentors, whose blatant hypocrisy has long been evident,
e.g. the statement: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal …"
was composed by slaveowners almost to a man, in that several of the Founding Fathers of the USA
were in possession of hundreds of human beings that were listed in their account books as personal
property and worked for them as slaves, namely George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson,
James Madison, and Patrick Henry were all slave-owners. And Hilary Clinton "misspoke" when saying
publicly that she had been fired upon by a sniper when arriving at Belgrade airport with her daughter;
not forgetting the US lies concerning Iran and Iraq, of course, and the destruction of the USS
Maine at Havana; and the role of the US Marine Corps in maintaining "freedom and Democracy" for
the benefit of United Fruit and Wall St. in Central and Southern America, as revealed by General
Smedly Butler …
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi
may be one of the most powerful individuals in the global oil industry. After all, as the
top oil official in arguably the world's most influential oil-producing country, he has enormous
influence.
But for all his power, is he the most ingenious? That question arises from
the release of two reports on the current state of the oil industry that look at whether or not OPEC's
strategy of forcing US shale to cut back is succeeding.
The first, issued on May 12 by OPEC, says, in essence, that Saudi Arabia's effort to keep its
own oil production at near-record highs is succeeding in
wresting market share back from US producers of shale oil, also called "light, tight oil" (LTO).
The second, issued a day later by the International Energy Agency (IEA), agrees, but only up to a
point.
"In the supposed standoff between OPEC and U.S. light tight oil (LTO), LTO appears
to have blinked,"
the IEA reported. "Following months of cost cutting and a 60 percent plunge in the
U.S. rig count, the relentless rise in U.S. supply seems to be finally abating."
But the report from the Paris-based IEA, which advises 29 industrialized countries on energy policy,
also pointed to a rebound in oil prices that could benefit US shale producers.
As both the OPEC and IEA reports point out, the decline in US shale oil output has somewhat reduced
the oil glut and led oil prices to rally up to about $65 per barrel. And the IEA adds that this brings
LTO back above the threshold where its production becomes profitable again.
But that, evidently, isn't good enough for both domestic and foreign shale drillers in the United
States, and this is where ingenuity enters the picture. "Several large LTO producers
have been boasting of achieving large reductions in production costs in recent weeks,"
the report said.
For example, Statoil, Norway's huge state-owned energy company, is trying out new techniques of
hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, in Texas' Eagle Ford shale field. They include using different
grades of sand to mix with water and chemicals, and drilling at varying depths, to increase oil yields.
"There's a proverb in Norway that says necessity teaches the naked woman how to knit," Bjorn Otto
Sverdrup, a Statoil vice president,
told The New York Times, during a tour of the company's shale operations in Kennedy, Texas.
Evidently this mother of invention is showing some success. Statoil may have cut the number
of its rigs at Eagle Ford from three to two in 2014, but its production from the shale field is up
by one-third. The new fracking method has also cut the cost of extraction from an average
of $4.5 million per well to $3.5 million, in part because it's been able to reduce drilling time
from an average of 21 days to 17.
Against this backdrop, then, it's not surprising that the IEA isn't so sure that OPEC
in general, and al-Naimi in particular, have the upper hand – yet. "It would thus be premature
to suggest that OPEC has won the battle for market share," the agency's report said. "The battle,
rather, has just started."
Six months ago, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, announced a surprising decision
to counter rivals' energy production. Instead of cutting back on oil production to match global
demand, member states would hold steady.
[…] by flooding the market, global prices would plunge, and more high-priced competitors would
be forced to respond. The main target, US shale companies, would hopefully collapse as they were
forced to cut spending.
Six months later, the plan seems to be working.
Well done Saudi Arabia, well done. Except oil is a finite resource, so US oil (and Venezuelan,
Russian, Iranian oil, …) are still there, and eventually will get sold at even higher prices.
Dumping works if you destroy, buy or otherwise acquire control on your competitors.
If you had ten canvas from van Gogh, would you sell them at half price to prevent your competitors
from selling theirs?
If you answered yes to the above question, congratulations! You are eligible to be Oil Minister
of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia! Contact us immediately (please outside lunch hours).
UKRAINE: Default risk appears to be rising. Talks between the main creditor group and the Ukraine
government have stalled, with both sides taking a less conciliatory tone in the media. The key area
of disagreement is write-down on principal. …
The IMF has said that a debt deal was "vital" before it completes its next review in mid-June."
"... Cooperation and coordination between China and Russia are needed to maintain the international balance of power and preserve the post-war world order. The participation of the leaders of the two countries in mutual events dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the Victory in World War II indicates that Russia and China, as the largest countries in the world and members of the United Nations, intend to maintain international order. ..."
For a long time there was confusion about the "quo" to the Saudi Arabian "quid" over its agreement
to side with the US on the Iranian "nuclear deal" (which incidentally looks like it will
never happen
simply due to the Russian and Chinese UN vetoes).
The details are quite familiar to anyone who has seen the US Military-Industrial Complex in action:
the US pretends to wage an aggressive diplomatic campaign of peace while behind the scenes
it is just as actively selling weapons of war.
Leading Persian Gulf states want major new weapons systems and security guarantees
from the White House in exchange for backing a nuclear agreement with Iran, according to U.S.
and Arab officials.
The leaders of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, including Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates and Qatar, plan to use a high-stakes meeting with President Barack Obama
next week to request additional fighter jets, missile batteries and surveillance equipment.
They also intend to pressure Mr. Obama for new defense agreements between the U.S.
and the Gulf nations that would outline terms and scenarios under which Washington would intervene
if they are threatened by Iran, according to these officials.
The Persian Gulf countries say they need more drones, surveillance equipment and missile-defense
systems to combat an Iranian regime they see as committed to becoming the region's dominant power.
The Gulf states also want upgraded fighter jets to contain the Iranian challenge, particularly
the advanced F-35, known as the Joint Strike Fighter.
A senior U.S. official played down chances that the administration would agree to sell advanced
systems such as the F-35 fighter to those nations-though the planes will be sold to Israel and
Turkey-because of concerns within the administration about altering the military balance in the
Middle East.v
There is much more but a question already emerges: why does the "Gulf Cooperation Council" need
so many ultramodern weapons to "defend" against an Iran which is supposedly halting its nuclear program
and is in the process of showing its allegiance to the west by endorsing a peace process.
Unless it was all merely a ruse to arm the Middle East from the very beginning?
And now the "end" is near because when it comes to matters of revenue and profitability for the
US Military-Industrial complex, seek and ye shall find.
According
to Reuters, "Obama is expected to make a renewed U.S. push next week to help Gulf allies create
a region-wide defense system to guard against Iranian missiles as he seeks to allay their anxieties
over any nuclear deal with Tehran, according to U.S. sources."
The offer could be accompanied by enhanced security commitments, new arms sales and
more joint military exercises, U.S. officials say, as Obama tries to reassure Gulf Arab
countries that Washington is not abandoning them.
Not only is Obama not abandoning "them", but the entire Iran "negotiations" farce increasingly
appears to have been produced from the very beginning to give the US a diplomatic loophole with which
to arm the biggest oil exporter in the world. Sure enough:
Gulf Arab neighbors, including key U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, worry that Iran will not be deterred
from a nuclear bomb and will be flush with cash from unfrozen assets to fund proxies and expand
its influence in countries such as Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.
U.S. officials with knowledge of the internal discussions concede that Obama is under pressure
to calm Arab fears by offering strengthened commitments. "It's a time to see what things might
be required to be formalized," a senior U.S. official said.
All of this should come as a surprise to precisely nobody as the US takes advantage of its waning
years as a global hegemon, and seeks to sell US weapons far and wide to the benefit of a select few
Raytheon, General Dynamics and Lockheed shareholders.
And yet something peculiar emerges: in the Reuters piece we read that "Obama is all but certain
to stop short of a full security treaty with Saudi Arabia or other Gulf nations as that would require
approval by the Republican-controlled Senate and risk stoking tensions with Washington's
main Middle East ally Israel."
Which brings up another interesting regional player: Israel. Because while we now know the real
reason for Saudi's complicity in the Iran "nuclear deal", a key middle east player is none other
than Israel, which under Netanyahu's control has puffed and huffed against the Iran deal, and yet
has done nothing. Why? Here Bloomberg provides some very critical perspective which introduces yet
another major player in the global military exports arena.
Last month, when President Vladimir Putin of Russia announced plans to sell a powerful anti-missile
system to Iran before the lifting of international sanctions, Israel was quick to join
the U.S. in expressing shock and anger.
But behind the public announcements is a little-known web of arms negotiations and secret diplomacy.
In recent years, Israel and Russia have engaged in a complex dance, with Israel selling
drones to Russia while remaining conspicuously neutral toward Ukraine and hoping to stave off
Iranian military development. The dance may not be over.
...
One of those issues is Israel's neutrality toward Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists
have waged war over the past year. Israel has held back from selling weapons to the government
in Kiev, which is backed by the U.S. and European Union, in the hope of keeping Russia's S-300s
away from Iran.... "Israel has come under a lot of pressure for not joining the all-Western consensus
on the Ukrainian crisis," said Sarah Feinberg, a research fellow at Tel Aviv's Institute for National
Security Studies. "It was a difficult decision for the Israeli government, which was concerned
about possible Russian retaliatory moves in the Mideast - such as selling the S-300 to Iran."
The issue at hand is the delivery of Israeli drones: whether to Ukraine, where such a deal was
recently scuttled following internal dissent by opposition within the Israel government, or to Russia,
which already has received Israel UAVs.
Russia expressed interest in buying Israeli drones after coming up against them during the
2008 war with Georgia. In 2010 Russia concluded a deal to purchase 15 of them from IAI, and to
set up a joint venture to produce drone technology.
An Israeli familiar with the matter said the drone deal with Russia carried an unwritten quid
pro quo: It would proceed only if the Kremlin suspended its announced S-300 sale to Iran.
Now having gotten the Israeli technology, the Israeli said, that promise is no longer a factor
in Russian considerations.
In other words, now that Israel - which is the world's largest exporter of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
- no longer has leverage over Russian military needs as Moscow has long ago reverse-engineered the
Israeli technology, Israel may have no choice but to provoke Russia in the middle east.
"Sending drones or other arms to Ukraine would be an ineffective, even inconsequential Israeli
response to Russia selling the S-300s to Iran," said Feinberg. More effective, she said,
would be for Israel to lift its political neutrality on the Ukrainian conflict, or take actions
in the Middle East against Russian regional allies such as the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria.
For now however, Israel's full on engagement in Syria (or Iran) appears to have been prevented:
"On April 23 Russia did appear to backtrack somewhat on its earlier announcement of the S-300 sale
to Iran, with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov telling the Interfax news agency that delivery
won't occur soon, and would only happen after political and legal issues were resolved. In his April
16 call-in show on Russian television, Putin acknowledged that Israeli objections had scuttled a
potential S-300 sale to another Mideast nation, reportedly Syria."
To attempt a summary: under the pretext of Iran negotiations for peace, the US is preparing to
quietly arm virtually all Gulf states with the latest US military technology, even as Israel has
given Russia some of its latest drone technology which means Russia may at any moment proceed to
arm Iran and Syria with modern Surface to Air missiles, while Israel is contemplaring retaliation
not only against Iran but Syria as well: the country which nearly led to a global proxy war in the
mdidle east in the summer of 2013.
In other words, we have, for the past few years, been on the edge of a razor thin Middle Eastern
balance of power equilibrium which prevented any one nation or alliance from garnering an outsized
influence of military power.
All of that is about to change the moment the MIC figurehead known as president Obama greenlights
the dispatch of billions of dollars in fighters, drones, missile batteries, and surveillance equipment
to Saudi Arabia and its peers, in the process dramatically reshaping the balance of power status
quo and almost certainly leading to yet another middle eastern war which will inevitably drag in
not only Israel and Russia at least in a proxy capacity, but ultimately, the US as well.
Just as the US military industrial complex wanted.
Because as every Keynesian fanatic will tell you: in a world saturated by debt, and where organic
growth is no longer possible, there is only one remaining option.
War.
* * *
And just to assure the required outcome, moments ago John Kerry arrived in Riyadh to conclude
the deal.
Why do they need a 'backdoor,' when they've been selling arms to the Saudis through the front
door since time began?...
Skateboarder
Barry insists there be a backdoor, for uh, personal reasons.
Looney
Reggie Love: Did I hear "Backdoor Channel"? ;-)
weburke
the real question is how does Israel view it. Netanyahu has not endorsed any of this. I would
guess Israel has no friend in Obama and his controllers, and will soon take action of their own.
What possible gain is it for Israel to have the fucking tyrant insane neighbors get all armed
up? hello war.
By the way, India is totally thumbing it's nose at the
US led non-coalition of the unwilling in continuing to deal
with Iran for all manner of goods and services. Big barter
deals, gold payments via Turkey for oil...
So there is that going on in Iran's Eastern flank. Iran,
by the way, was rumored to have a "Perfect Plate" from the
US mint via Henry Kissinger (or some spook) and during Shah
of Iran time were the world's largest counterfeiters of the
USD, only thing, they had a perfect Plate. Obviously CIA controlled.
All that money, EuroDollars, Petrodollars....black money,
drug dollars (Iran is a major heroine transit point).
The backdoor, wasn't this the aircraft used to covertly bring all
the Saudi's back home on 911 when all the other aircraft were grounded?
TahoeBilly2012
Anyone with a brain could guess the Iran deal was always a scam of some sort. Why? Well, because
everything is a scam from these people and there is no peace, ever, not the goal. It amazes me
the rest of the world even engages with the Zionist shitshow called the USA.
Anunnaki
President Peace Prize needs MOAR war in the Middle East before he "leaves" office. He is at
proxy war (for now) with Russia. That was quite a feat so:
Why not take on Iran while he is at it. Two birds with one big stone and all that.
Bill of Rights
Hmm is this like the Clinton China for Arms deal...Face it folks all US Politicians are scum
of the earth, sum are just more scummy than the others.
Cooperation between Russia and China
is necessary to maintain the balance of power in the world, China's
Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Cheng Guoping said Monday.
The high-ranking Chinese diplomat said that Russian-Chinese relations
had reached a new level of development and the forthcoming visit of
Xi Jinping to Moscow would facilitate further cooperation between Beijing
and Moscow. The Chinese president will pay a three-day visit to Moscow
on May 8-10, attending the Victory Day Parade on May 9 at the invitation
of Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Cooperation and coordination
between China and Russia are needed to maintain the international balance
of power and preserve the post-war world order. The participation of
the leaders of the two countries in mutual events dedicated to the
70th anniversary of the Victory in World War II indicates that Russia
and China, as the largest countries in the world and members of the
United Nations, intend to maintain international order."
9/11 exposed the unholy alliance between the US and the Saudis (for anyone with enough intellectual
curiosity to seek the truth). This true axis of evil has a symbiotic relationship that knows no
moral bounds.
Nothing new here...
Monty Burns
In 9/11 the Saudis provided the finance and the patsies. The event was organized by Mossad
and Ziocons in the USA.
juicy_bananas
Just in time for next year's SOFEX, bitchez! The war economy has to get paper somehow. Peace
Prizes for EVERYBODY!
They didn't backdoor that sale. Whatever President Jarret is trying to sell, it isn't to the Saudi's.
Jacksons Ghost
Anyone that thinks the House of Saud will go quietly is fooling themselves. We sell them out,
how quickly will they pivot towards China and Russia. We abandon The House of Saud, you can guarentee
that they will abandon the Dollar. Reserve Status of Dollar is most important to our money printers...
falak pema
No amount of US material will save the Sunni Kingdoms from their fate, as the bigger the Military
spending becomes the bigger the millstone of its proliferation to its enemies grow.
Iran will play the same game of attrition, feeding the enemies of their strategic enemy, and guerrilla
warfare that Giap and Ho Chi Minh did.
Remember Vietnam, USA, the cancer of opposition now runs deep in the region on all fronts and
it will feed the instability of an ivory towered kingdom like poison ivy wrapping itself around
the healthy tree.
The spiral is now a sign of runaway MIC malinvestment of huge proportions. Those Sauds will never
have an army to match their rivals, who are as hungry as the hounds of hell and fed by the kingdom's
never-ending and obscurantist fed hubris. Guns didn't save South Vietnam.
How do you avoid the same blowback that Nam has demonstrated?
Same corruption, same endgame now being concocted in a region that goes from Paki to deep Africa?
The kiss of the US MIC is the kiss of death to its allies.
Saud at the cross roads-- cut and run-- or stay US suppot like Nam.
You're leaving out two very important parts of the proxy war situation. Russia forced Syria
to give up her chemical weapon defenses which led to the US & its brothers in the Brotherhood
of Darkness Gulf Cooperation Council to use their proxy, ISIS, to pounce on Syria.
Remember what happened with MINSK? The breakaway republics were pressured to give up their gains
since September.
Not very good for the balance of powers. The Brotherhood of Darkness won't need a real WW3 to
get what they want.
Forget that piffling $30 Billion Ukraine said it needs to rebuild its shattered economy – now
it
needs somewhere between $60 Billion and $100 Billion, says the Poison Professor, Alexander
Motyl (the same guy who says Hitler was Moscow's fault). Whoops! That's not dollars, it's Euros.
Easy-peasy, says Motyl; the USA and EU sunk about 100 Billion Euros into Afghanistan over the
last 10 years.
The west is not going to have that kind of time. Ukrainians are not going to
put up with a shit economy for 10 years. They're much worse off now than they were under Yanukovych,
and let's not forget, without access to the Russian markets they are going to need to live on
expensive handouts every year. Motyl is a pretty funny guy sometimes; he likes to make everything
sound so easy. Just give us 100 Billion Euros, and we'll be fine. Oh, and massive transfers of
lethal weaponry – we'll be safe with it, you can trust us.
Harf: Pres Carter, Crimea & Minsk agreement. 30 April 2015
dig
matt lee's questions at the end of the video and harf's, halfhearted
response, while ignoring the history earlier in the video – is this an american
specialty? meanwhile
here is carters comments via fort russ article.. maybe read the article
first, or what the video.. i guess it doesn't matter..
here is matt lee in another daily briefing with the press asking the sharp
questions he is known for.. Rathke. Odessa Ban:"I
hadn't seen those reports." 01 May 2015 … righto…
and regarding the upcoming year anniversary of the odessa political
murders another question and answer with matt lee coming in at the
end to point out the obvious Harf: Odessa & "the bigger picture in Ukraine". 30 April 2015
note the comment section as well..
The megalomaniacs of the Washington power elite actually think they can mold the Middle East to
their specifications. No calamity resulting from their clumsy machinations ever causes them to rethink
this preposterous conceit.
Look at some of their more recent handiwork. In 2003, on the basis of shoddy intelligence if not
conscious lies, President George W. Bush had the U.S. military overthrow Iraqi dictator (and former
ally) Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim whose secular regime discriminated against the Shia majority.
With Saddam gone and his Ba'ath party dispersed, the Shiites inevitably assumed power, assisted by
American forces that put down a Sunni insurgency and enabled Shiite militias to ethnically cleanse
most of the capital, Baghdad. Millions were killed, injured, and displaced.
Next door, of course, is the Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran, which has been America's bête noir
since 1979, when a revolution overthrew the U.S.-backed autocratic shah and militants held American
hostages, 26 years after the CIA helped to oust a prime minister and restore the shah to power. Iraq
under Saddam had also been Iran's enemy; he launched an eight-year war of aggression against the
Islamic Republic in the 1980s, aided by the United States. (Among other assistance, US satellite
intelligence helped Saddam
wage chemical warfare against the Iranians.) In balance-of-power terms, Saddam was the counterforce
that checked Iranian influence. But now Saddam's regime was gone.
One did not need to be an expert to know that Iran would benefit. Iraq's sectarian Shiite prime
minister from 2006 to 2014, Nouri al-Maliki, was favored by Iran, as is his successor, Haider al-Abadi.
Even Bush administration's original pick to lead post-Saddam Iraq,
Ahmed Chalabi, had long been close to Iran.
So despite some 30 years of America's cold, covert, cyber, and proxy war against Iran, the Bush
administration was indispensable in helping Iran gain greater influence in the Middle East.
This influence has
grown even greater now with the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, which was a predictable
consequence of Saddam's overthrow and sectarian Shiite rule, before which there was no Sunni al-Qaeda
in Iraq, much less ISIS, its even more virulent offshoot. The Obama administration has assumed the
lead in the effort to "degrade and destroy" ISIS, which is officially regarded as a "threat to the
homeland," but Obama's method is largely confined to airpower, with only a small force on the ground.
Most analysts believe that airpower alone will not suffice. The fight on the ground in Iraq is being
handled by that country's Shiite army and an assortment of vengeful Shiite militias, making the Sunnis
fearful of sectarian violence and even accepting of the brutal and intolerant ISIS. Who advises these
forces? None other than Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani of the Iranian Army of the Guardians of the Islamic
Revolution and commander of the Quds Force, a division of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Soleimani
reportedly is playing a major role in the current effort to retake
Takrit, Saddam's hometown, from ISIS.
This objectively places the United States on the same side as Iran, but the Obama administration
cannot acknowledge this without granting Iran prestige. Indeed, American and Israeli officials worry
that the price of defeating ISIS will be a Middle East dominated by Iran as never before.
Of course, ISIS also controls territory in next-door Syria, which is ruled by Iran's ally Bashar
al-Assad, a member of a minority Shiite sect whose regime is embroiled in a civil war. Obama has
called for Assad's departure, but Assad is also fighting ISIS (as well as Syria's al-Qaeda franchise),
putting him, too, objectively on America's side.
The question arising from this tangled tale is: What were the American and Israeli advocates of
war with Iraq thinking back in 2003? Was their plan to build up Iranian influence in order to justify
war and regime change? That would explain why advocates of the Iraq policy are trying to torpedo
multilateral talks with Iran over its
nonexistent
nuclear weapons program. But war with Iran, which is much larger and more populous Iraq, would be
a catastrophe.
In light of all this, should Americans trust their lives and well-being to the arrogant Washington
power elite?
Sheldon Richman is a Research Fellow at The Independent Institute,
which is based in Oakland, California.
"The U.S. must show the leadership necessary to establish and protect a
new order that holds the promise of convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire
to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests…..We
must, however, be mindful that…Russia will remain the strongest military power in Eurasia and
the only power in the world with the capability of destroying the United States."
-The Wolfowitz Doctrine,
the original version of the Defense Planning Guidance, authored by Under Secretary of Defense
Paul Wolfowitz, leaked to the New York Times on March 7, 1992
"For America, the chief geopolitical prize is Eurasia…and America's global primacy is directly
dependent on how long and how effectively its preponderance on the Eurasian continent is sustained."
The Laussanne negotiations between Iran and the so called P5+1 group (the United States, Russia,
China, France, Britain, and Germany) have nothing to do with nuclear proliferation. They are,
in fact, another attempt to weaken and isolate Russia by easing sanctions, thus allowing Iranian
gas to replace Russian gas in Europe.
Laussanne shows that Washington still thinks that the greatest threat to its dominance is the
further economic integration of Russia and Europe, a massive two-continent free trade zone from Lisbon
to Vladivostok that would eventually dwarf dwindling US GDP while decisively shifting the balance
of global power to Asia. To counter that threat, the Obama administration toppled the elected government
of Ukraine in a violent coup, launched a speculative attack on the ruble, forced down global oil
prices, and is presently arming and training neo-Nazi extremists in the Ukrainian army. Washington
has done everything in its power to undermine relations between the EU and Russia risking even nuclear
war in its effort to separate the natural trading partners and to strategically situate itself in
a location where it can control the flow of vital resources from East to West.
Laussanne was about strategic priorities not nukes. The Obama administration realizes that if
it can't find an alternate source of gas for Europe, then its blockade of Russia will fail and the
EU-Russia alliance will grow stronger. And if the EU-Russia alliance grows stronger, then US attempts
to extend its tentacles into Asia and become a major player in the world's most prosperous region
will also fail leaving Washington to face a dismal future in which the steady erosion of its power
and prestige is a near certainty. This is from an article titled "Removing sanctions against Iran
to have unfavorable influence on Turkey and Azerbaijan":
"If Washington removes energy sanctions on Iran…then a new geopolitical configuration will
emerge in the region. Connecting with Nabucco will be enough for Iran to fully supply Europe with
gas…
Iran takes the floor with inexhaustible oil and gas reserves and as a key transit country.
Iran disposes of the 10% of the reported global oil reserves and is the second country in the
world after Russia with its natural gas reserves (15%). The official representatives of Iran do
not hide that they strive to enter the European market of oil and gas, as in the olden days. Let's
remember that the deputy Minister of Oil in Iran, Ali Majedi, offered to revive project of Nabucco
pipeline during his European tour and said that his country is ready to supply gas to Europe through
it…
"Some months earlier the same Ali Majedi reported sensational news: 'two invited European delegations'
discussed the potential routes of Iranian gas supply to Europe," the article reads." … It is also
noted that the West quite materially reacted to the possibility of the Iranian gas to join Nabucco."
(Removing
sanctions against Iran to have unfavorable influence on Turkey and Azerbaijan, Panorama)
So, is this the plan, to provide "energy security" to Europe by replacing Russian gas with Iranian
gas?
It sure looks like it. But that suggests that the sanctions really had nothing to do with Iran's
fictitious nuclear weapons program but were merely used to humiliate Iran while keeping as much of
its oil and gas offline until western-backed multinationals could get their greasy mitts on it.
Indeed, that's exactly how the sanctions were used even though the nuclear issue was a transparent
fake from the get go. Get a load of this from the New York Times:
"Recent assessments by American spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence
finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier, according
to current and former American officials. The officials said that assessment was largely reaffirmed
in a 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, and that it remains the consensus view of America's
16 intelligence agencies." (U.S.
Agencies See No Move by Iran to Build a Bomb, James Risen, New York Times, February 24, 2012)
See? The entire US intelligence establishment has been saying the same thing from the onset: No
Iranian nukes. Nor has Iran ever been caught diverting nuclear fuel to other purposes. Never. Also,
as nuclear weapons physicist, Gordon Prather stated many times before his death, "After almost three
years of go-anywhere see-anything interview-anyone inspections, IAEA inspectors have yet to find
any indication that Iran has - or ever had - a nuclear weapons program."
The inspectors were on the ground for three freaking years. They interviewed everyone and went
wherever they wanted. They searched every cave and hideaway, every nook and cranny, and they found
nothing.
Get it? No nukes, not now, not ever. Period.
The case against Iran is built on propaganda, brainwashing and bullshit, in that order. But, still,
that doesn't tell us why the US is suddenly changing course. For that, we turn to an article from
The Brookings Institute titled "Why the details of the Iran deal don't matter" which sums it up quite
well. Here's a clip:
"At heart, this is a fight over what to do about Iran's challenge to U.S. leadership in the
Middle East and the threat that Iranian geopolitical ambitions pose to U.S. allies, particularly
Israel and Saudi Arabia. Proponents of the deal believe that the best way for the United States
to deal with the Iranian regional challenge is to seek to integrate Iran into the regional order,
even while remaining wary of its ambitions. A nuclear deal is an important first step in that
regard, but its details matter little because the ultimate goal is to change Iranian intentions
rather destroy Iranian capability." (Why
the details of the Iran deal don't matter, Brookings)
Notice how carefully the author avoids mentioning Israel by name although he alludes to "the threat
that Iranian geopolitical ambitions pose to U.S. allies". Does he think he's talking to idiots?
But his point is well taken; the real issue is not "Iranian capability", but "Iran's challenge
to U.S. leadership in the Middle East". In other words, the nuclear issue is baloney. What Washington
doesn't like is that Iran has an independent foreign policy that conflicts with the US goal of controlling
the Middle East. That's what's really going on. Washington wants a compliant Iran that clicks its
heals and does what its told.
The problem is, the strategy hasn't worked and now the US is embroiled in a confrontation with
Moscow that is a higher priority than the Middle East project. (The split between US elites on this
matter has been interesting to watch, with the Obama-Brzezinski crowd on one side and the McCain-neocon
crowd on the other.) This is why the author thinks that easing sanctions and integrating Iran into
the predominantly US system would be the preferable remedy for at least the short term.
Repeat: "The best way for the United States to deal with the Iranian regional challenge is to
integrate Iran into the regional order." In other words, if you can't beat 'em, then join 'em. Iran
is going to be given enough freedom to fulfill its role within the imperial order, that is, to provide
gas to Europe in order to inflict more economic pain on Russia. Isn't that what's going on?
But what effect will that have on Iran-Russia relations? Will it poison the well and turn one
ally against the other?
Probably not, mainly because the ties between Iran and Russia are growing stronger by the day.
Check this out from the Unz Review by Philip Giraldi:
"Moscow and Tehran are moving towards a de-facto strategic partnership, which can be easily
seen by the two groundbreaking announcements from earlier this week. It's now been confirmed by
the Russian government that the rumored oil-for-goods program between Russia and Iran is actually
a real policy that's already been implemented, showing that Moscow has wasted no time in trying
to court the Iranian market after the proto-deal was agreed to a week earlier. Providing goods
in exchange for resources is a strategic decision that creates valuable return customers in Iran,
who will then be in need of maintenance and spare parts for their products. It's also a sign of
deep friendship between the two Caspian neighbors and sets the groundwork for the tentative North-South
economic corridor between Russia and India via Iran." (A
Shifting Narrative on Iran, Unz Review)
But here's the glitch: Iran can't just turn on the spigot and start pumping gas to Europe. It
doesn't work that way. It's going to take massive pipeline and infrastructure upgrades that could
take years to develop. That means there will be plenty of hefty contracts awarded to friends of Tehran
–mostly Russian and Chinese–who will perform their tasks without interfering in domestic politics.
Check this out from Pepe Escobar:
"Russia and China are deeply committed to integrating Iran into their Eurasian vision. Iran may
finally be admitted as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at the upcoming
summer summit in Russia. That implies a full-fledged security/commercial/political partnership involving
Russia, China, Iran and most Central Asian 'stans'.
Iran is already a founding member of the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB);
that means financing for an array of New Silk Road-related projects bound to benefit the Iranian
economy. AIIB funding will certainly merge with loans and other assistance for infrastructure
development related to the Chinese-established Silk Road Fund…" (Russia,
China, Iran: In sync, Pepe Escobar, Russia Today)
Get the picture? Eurasian integration is already done-deal and there's nothing the US can do to
stop it.
Washington needs to rethink its approach. Stop the meddling and antagonism, rebuild relations
through trade and mutual trust, and accept the inevitability of imperial decline.
Asia's star is rising just as America's is setting. Deal with it.
The head of Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, warned European customers on Monday that if their
countries angled for a single price for natural gas, it would most likely be at the higher end of
the range they now pay.
In a speech in Berlin, Gazprom's chief, Aleksei B. Miller, issued the warning as he laid out a
new marketplace dynamic - one in which Russia is also looking east, particularly to China, for natural
gas customers and not merely to Europe.
Russia's new marketing outlook and the European Union's search for alternative energy supplies
have been accelerated by the Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its actions in Ukraine. China
and Russia have announced plans for vast new natural gas deliveries from Siberia to China - although
they have yet to agree on a price.
…On Friday, Standard & Poor's cut Ukraine's long term foreign debt rating to CC from CCC-. The
rating of CC is one notch above C, which is used when a debtor is in the process of filing for bankruptcy
protection.
Standard & Poor's kept Ukraine's short-term foreign credit rating at C with a negative outlook…
…On Thursday, the WSJ reported that foreign investors holding $10 billion of Ukrainian bonds "joined
forces to develop a restructuring plan" for the country's debt. The plan does not include a reduction
in principal, but interest payments on the other hand will are unpayable….
…"A detailed proposal is being developed by the committee that provides Ukraine with the necessary
financial liquidity support it has requested… without any principal debt reductions," Blackstone
Group International Partners LLP and Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP, which are advising the bondholders,
were quoted as saying Thursday in the Journal….
####
In other words Ukraine is cooked for dinner by Western banks and local kleptocrats and
economically clueless nationalists like Yutshchenko and Yatsenyuk ...
Notable quotes:
"... "speedy resolution" ..."
"... "without any principal debt reductions," ..."
"... "provides Ukraine with the necessary financial liquidity support," ..."
"... Meanwhile, Ukraine has to reach an agreement with creditors by the end of May to save $15.3 billion over 4 years as a condition for receiving the next tranche of a $17.5 billion International Monetary Fund loan which comes in exchange for economic, budget and monetary reforms in the country. ..."
"... "This is how restructuring negotiations always start, with unrealistic proposals. For sure, the creditors will try to achieve a deal with no principal reduction, but realistically it is not viable, ..."
"... "Ukraine's debt-to-GDP is much too high and the economy is shrinking," ..."
"... "Now it's official that major bondholders will be resisting a haircut," ..."
"... "But frankly speaking, it might be very, very difficult to push through a 'no haircut' idea, given the IMF's target." ..."
A committee of Ukraine's private creditors that hold about $10 billion in Ukrainian bonds is against
any write-downs in its debt-restructuring deal. The bondholders' terms jeopardize Ukraine's bailout
package from the IMF.
Ukraine's creditors are expecting a "speedy resolution" to negotiations
"without any principal debt reductions," the committee said in a statement released by Ukraine's
biggest bondholder Blackstone Group, Bloomberg
reported Friday. The group was working on a plan that "provides Ukraine with the necessary
financial liquidity support," according to the statement.
Ukraine has to pay about $10 billion to service its debt this year, including corporate and sovereign
loans and bonds. The total debt of Ukraine is currently estimated at $50 billion. Public sector debt
rose to 71 percent of Ukraine's gross domestic product, and is due to rise to 94 percent of GDP in
2015, according to the National Bank of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has to reach an agreement with creditors by the end of May to save $15.3 billion
over 4 years as a condition for receiving the next tranche of a $17.5 billion International Monetary
Fund loan which comes in exchange for economic, budget and monetary reforms in the country. A debt-to-gross
domestic product ratio of below 71 percent by 2020; and the budget's gross financing needs at an
average of 10 percent of GDP from 2019 to 2025 are also among the restructuring demands from the
IMF.
"This is how restructuring negotiations always start, with unrealistic proposals. For sure,
the creditors will try to achieve a deal with no principal reduction, but realistically it is not
viable," Michael Ganske, who helps manage $6 billion as head of emerging markets at Rogge Global
Partners in London, told Bloomberg.
"Ukraine's debt-to-GDP is much too high and the economy is shrinking," Ganske added.
Russia is Ukraine's second-biggest
creditor as
it holds a $3 billion Eurobond issued in December 2013 with a maturity in December 2015. Moscow is
not going to demand early repayment of the loan, despite the fact that one of the contract's conditions
was violated as Ukraine's national debt exceeded 60 percent of the GDP, according to RIA Novosti.
Financial dilemma
Meanwhile, Ukraine is seeking to restructure at least $21.7 billion of its public debt. The country's
central bank reserves fell dangerously below $5.6 billion in February, and the national currency,
the hryvnia, has lost more than half of its value in the past six months and emerged as the worst
performing currency in 2014. Ukraine has thus been forced into negotiations with the bondholders.
The weakening currency has led to massive inflation, which has reached 272 percent last year by
some estimates. Officially it was 34.5 percent in annual terms as of February and is expected to
reach 30 percent for the whole of 2015. Ukraine also has outstanding Russian energy debts now standing
at about $2 billion that it must pay if it wants to continue receiving natural gas.
In return for the IMF funds, Ukraine has embarked on
tough economic
reforms, which include cutting pensions, raising the retirement age, trimming the state budget, and
getting rid of wasteful gas subsidies.
"Now it's official that major bondholders will be resisting a haircut," Giuliano Palumbo,
a money manager who helps oversee $3 billion in emerging-market debt for Arca SGR in Milan, including
Ukrainian bonds, told Bloomberg. "But frankly speaking, it might be very, very difficult to push
through a 'no haircut' idea, given the IMF's target."
This is extremely strong move by the US diplomacy (EU vassals were just token players, extras in
the play) which considerably weakens Russia political and economic position. It also shows
that drop of oil prices was a well though out strategic move with several possible surprises in the
sleeves.
How the lift sanctions against Iran will affect the position of Russia in the world
Lengthy negotiations the six world powers (Russia, USA, UK, France, Germany, China) in
Lausanne ended with agreement on the lifting of restrictions against Iran. Foreign Minister of
this country Mohammad Zarif called the historical results of the negotiations. Similar opinion is
shared by U.S. President Barack Obama, who compared the agreements with agreements between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the reign of Reagan and Nixon. The world market after
the statements of the leaders of the six responded to a decrease in oil prices. But the question
arise: will the
economy of Russia suffer as a result of this shrewd move, and will Russia be able to maintain a
trusting relationship with its ally in the Middle East or it will change camps.
The EU and the US sanctions against Iran seriously limited the foreign trade of Tehran. They
were introduced under the pretext of preventing Iran's development of its own nuclear weapons.
Iran argued that solely interested in building on their own territory of the nuclear power
plants and is not intended to have weapons of mass destruction. But the official representatives
of the West did not believe statements by Iran leadership, fearing that obtaining a nuclear
weapon by Iran will seriously alter the geopolitical balance in the middle East.
In recent years tensions between Iran and the West only grew. This played against attempts to
isolate
Moscow, which, after the reunification of the Crimea with Russia was forced to start organizing
the "anti-Western coalition." to counter Western sanctions. But Tehran clearly
did not enjoyed its permanent status of a "rogue state" assigned by the USA,
and the new President of Iran Hassan Rouhani began to hint that he might compromise and accept
the demands of the West.
Concluded at Lausanne agreements, Iran accepted an obligation for 15 years not to build new
facilities for uranium enrichment and not to enrich uranium to the level of over to 3.67%,
while also reducing the number of centrifuges from the current 19 thousand to six thousand. In
response to the Tehran gets the opportunity to export the energy to the West.
The appearance on the world market of oil and gas from a new player at the current moment of
low energy prices might trigger further collapse in the price of "black gold" which will
jeopardize the economy of Russia. At the same time, the removal of restrictions on the
development of the Iranian nuclear program will enhance the ability of Russian companies to
participate in construction of nuclear power plants. It also indirectly created a new prospects
for cooperation in military-technical sphere.
It is possible that the West went to the lifting of sanctions, based on geopolitical
considerations. Shiite Iran is supporting the rebels Houthis in Yemen and efforts of the
coalition led by Saudi Arabia may not lead to success. This can threatens oil supplies to Europe
and the USA. In addition, Iran has long expressed his desire to join the Shanghai cooperation
organization, collective security Treaty organization and BRICS. Here West was forced to give
Tehran a bone to block or slow down such moves.
The lifting of the sanctions on Iran may lead in the near future to the fall in oil prices.
But this probably will be a short-term phenomenon caused by excessive speculation. In itself, the
lifting of sanctions in the future for a few months will not affect the market, " said the
Director of the Center for the study of world energy markets energy research Institute of Russian
Academy of Sciences Vyacheslav Kulagin. No additional quantities of oil and gas on the
market will be added to market immediately. But if the current economic situation in the
world will stay then in the future the lifting of the sanctions on Iran will led to significant
changes. Iran will obtain access to Western investments and technology. But again, in a short
term the world energy market is not affected.
But if we talk about the future after 2020, Iran could become a leading exporter of oil and gas.
Oil and gas production will increase. It is worth noting the value of the field "South Pars".
Even before the sanctions, there were dozens of projects in this field, including some with the
participation of Russian companies. If those projects will be revived, then they will have a
serious impact. But this impact will be felt in 2020 or even 2030. In this timeframe Russia will
get a serious competitor in the commodities market.
It is worth considering the geopolitical factor, in particular, the current situation in
Yemen. Iran supports the Shiite population of this country, but does not yet have the financial
capacity to significantly affect the situation. But in the future if the investment is going in
Iran, such opportunities will appear. Accordingly, re-configuration of forces in the Middle
East will be a bigger question than it is today.
"I guess at some point last year they made the strategic decision that any credibility amongst
those who are well informed could be sacrificed. Very few Westerners (especially in the Anglosohere)
will make the effort to find alternative sources, and the rest can easily be gulled." ... "How
embarassing for the Guardian; history will not be kind to the complicit, useful idiots who have prostituted
their credibility on the altar of propaganda." This neocons who run the show has thrown Ukrainian
people into abysmal poverty and horrors of civil war and now want to sell all the assets for pennies
on the dollar. Note activity of Psakibots (psigone, jessam,
nickpossum,
Mike_UK, etc) in comments. Quote: "I notice the Graun finally reported on the Kolomoisky situation.
Only a week after he sent his armed gangs to occupy corporate HQs in Kiev. Not bad, not bad at all.
I guess it takes time to be sure what the party line is in such delicate situations. Safer to say nothing
than the wrong thing."
Finance minister Natalie Jaresko wants to see debt cut and interest on remainder reduced so
Ukraine can move towards stability
Jeremn -> MartinArvay 26 Mar 2015 09:04
It is Shock Therapy II. Deregulation. Privatisation ("privatization of everything that can
be privatized and we plan to start it this year," she said on 13 March). Selling off assets. Firing
staff.
See the number of staff being sacked from state institutions. 50% from the economic ministry
alone. The minister helpfully remarked
"One can't do anything with old staff."
OldStickie -> Goodthanx 26 Mar 2015 06:53
East European oligarchs usually buy themselves Israeli citizenship. There is no extradition
from Israel so that is where you go when justice begins to catch up with you.
sodtheproles Goodthanx 26 Mar 2015 05:47
Common sense dictates federalisation for the whole of Ukraine. The existing situation benefits
only the US, and their arms manufacturers, no one else
61gvern 25 Mar 2015 21:12
I notice the Graun finally reported on the Kolomoisky situation.
Only a week after he sent his armed gangs to occupy corporate HQs in Kiev. Not bad, not bad
at all. I guess it takes time to be sure what the party line is in such delicate situations. Safer
to say nothing than the wrong thing.
nnedjo 25 Mar 2015 17:37
As far as I understand, with Ukraine is happening now something similar with the patient
over which performs open-heart surgery. So, while the surgeons do not complete the operation,
they must attach a patient to the artificial heart and artificial lungs, otherwise he would have
died.
Similarly, the Ukraine until recently was inextricably linked with Russia's economic and industrial
complex. Severing those ties were equally to the separation of man from his heart during surgery.
And, IMF now plays the role of an artificial heart, which should maintain the patient's bloodstream
until they implanted a new heart to him. How long the operation will last, and whether it will
ever be successful, it is obvious that neither the IMF knows himself. Because, as Natali Jaresko
said, Ukraine is a very big country, and throughout the EU is currently a major crisis.
Also, it is not known how the patient (Ukraine) will pay "the cost of the operation" to the
IMF, if one day he really healed, and will he ever be able to do so.
sodtheproles -> Gonzogal 25 Mar 2015 17:12
I meant for ability to use government to line her own pockets, certainly not for her investment
'skills'
Jeff1000 25 Mar 2015 17:02
Prof. Steven Cohen, of Princeton and NYU, calls the Ukraine situation "the worst international
crisis since the Cuban Missile Crisis":
That $150 million WNISEF fund handed by Jaresko has lost more than a third of its value since
the Ukrainian economy tanked. As she steps into office, Kiev's foreign reserves are down to $10
billion and shrinking, while inflation roars at 22 percent.
my sources mostly Russian and Ukrainian news agencies or blogs. There has been occupations
and clashes between the regime forces and battalions in Kiev, Dniepr and also in Odessa.
However my best independent source is Colonel Cassad.
Gonzogal 25 Mar 2015 15:43
Some background on Natalie Jaresko:
Ukraine's new Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko, a former U.S. State Department officer who
was granted Ukrainian citizenship only this week, headed a U.S. government-funded investment project
for Ukraine that involved substantial insider dealings, including $1 million-plus fees to a management
company that she also controlled.
Jaresko served as president and chief executive officer of Western NIS Enterprise Fund (WNISEF),
which was created by the U.S. Agency for International Development (U.S. AID) with $150 million
to spur business activity in Ukraine. She also was cofounder and managing partner of Horizon Capital
which managed WNISEF's investments at a rate of 2 to 2.5 percent of committed capital, fees exceeding
$1 million in recent years, according to WNISEF's 2012 annual report.
The growth of that insider dealing at the U.S.-taxpayer-funded WNISEF is further underscored
by the number of paragraphs committed to listing the "related party transactions," i.e., potential
conflicts of interest, between an early annual report from 2003 and the one a decade later.
In the 2003 report, the "related party transactions" were summed up in two paragraphs, with
the major item a $189,700 payment to a struggling computer management company where WNISEF had
an investment.
In the 2012 report, the section on "related party transactions" covered some two pages and
included not only the management fees to Jaresko's Horizon Capital ($1,037,603 in 2011 and $1,023,689
in 2012) but also WNISEF's co-investments in projects with the Emerging Europe Growth Fund [EEGF],
where Jaresko was founding partner and chief executive officer. Jaresko's Horizon Capital also
managed EEGF.
From 2007 to 2011, WNISEF co-invested $4.25 million with EEGF in Kerameya LLC, a Ukrainian
brick manufacturer, and WNISEF sold EEGF 15.63 percent of Moldova's Fincombank for $5 million,
the report said. It also listed extensive exchanges of personnel and equipment between WNISEF
and Horizon Capital.
Though it's difficult for an outsider to ascertain the relative merits of these insider deals,
they could reflect negatively on Jaresko's role as Ukraine's new finance minister given the country's
reputation for corruption and cronyism, a principal argument for the U.S.-backed "regime change"
that ousted elected President Viktor Yanukovych last February.
"Russian President Putin's game plan now in Ukraine is to turn it into a failed state as
an example to the others in his EurAsian (customs) Union."
As if Putin and Lavrov need to do anything - it's already a failed state. All thanks to Washington,
its NATO stooges and a woefully naive Ukrainian population.
Jeff1000 -> psygone 25 Mar 2015 13:07
Ukraine is a disaster - anybody can see that. Your decidedly odd efforts to convince...somebody...that
Ukraine is about to turn around and become a healthy economy is, frankly, mad.
If there isn't another coup, or at least huge unrest in Kiev, by the end of the year it will
be a near miracle.
HollyOldDog -> SHappens 25 Mar 2015 10:38
The foundations of the bridge between Russia and Crimea are due to go in this spring though
the bridge completion could take 2years. Has anyone heard of how the pipelines from Russia to
Crimea are progressing - one for gas and the other for water. I think it's best for Crimea to
be totally physically seperated from Ukraine for the safety of the Crimean citizens.
Griffon79 -> nnedjo 25 Mar 2015 10:09
pretty sure the shadow government in the US has decided to destroy the US - the social compact
has been broken - no longer do they act in national interests, but private, commercial ones.
I give them about a half century before collapse followed by civil war.
Griffon79 -> UncleSam404 25 Mar 2015 10:05
Incorrect, but either your juvenile patriotism, or ignorance, or possibly payola prevents you
from seeing the absurdness of your position.
Luckily, the rest of the world as they say is not so dim.
Griffon79 -> Jonathan Stromberg 25 Mar 2015 10:01
No, there isnt. This little coup has made that clear to the intellectuals in the West -
you know, the ones not in government in journalism, the ones who make the society tick, that our
media is at least as, if not more corrupt than any media, ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD, with the possible
exception of North Korea.
So, I guess the elite thought we would either swallow this, after Syria, Iraq, Libya and countless
other misadventures, or that they could retain some credibility after this propaganda assault.
Check out the insignia on the vehicle behind 'anaconda'. Really great people our 'leaders'
have elected to ally with eh?
Just to defend against your next deflection, it is in fact the neonazo simple 1488, as the
Guardian, under pressure BTL, was forced to admit.
I bet some poor staffer got in trouble for that.
Griffon79 -> Mike_UK 25 Mar 2015 09:55
Ukraine was not attacking anyone until they had a coup, didnt like resistance in the East,
and so sent a bunch of neonazi hooligans and their poorly equipped army to attack civilian populations.
Facts. Unsubjective ones. You feel me, Guardian?
Griffon79 -> psygone Mar 2015 09:52
Yes, and America will be nowhere to be seen. America likes to talk big but when it comes down
to the wire, they will sacrifice their 'allies' in a heartbeat.
Griffon79 -> Mike_UK 25 Mar 2015 09:42
They weren't Ukrainian nuclear weapons ; they were Russian. The Russians were taking back what
they owned. Also, given recent history, its probably a good thing the nutcases in the Ukrainian
coup government do not have nukes, n'est pas?
What do you think happens to the US economy when oil is no longer being traded almost exclusively
in US dollars?
Just curious what the Langley view is.
Griffon79 -> rogermell1e 25 Mar 2015 09:38
This point, from the HEAVENS:
"This is really a victory for Russia, because at one time a substantial part of the intelligentsia
had some trust in the western MSM. This has now almost completely evaporated."
Griffon79 -> Systematic 25 Mar 2015 09:35
They don't conform to their dishonest narrative, so they wont report on it.
Right now meetings are being held to determine the best possible way to spin the news for the
few dullards who remain supportive in Western nations of the Ukrainian coup government.
Griffon79 -> TOR2000 25 Mar 2015 09:34
ah yes but don't expect the vaunted Guardian to report that; they think we are rubes who
will swallow their outrageous lies hook line and sinker
newsflash, kids in short pants, you are the ones killing your creditibility, not us
johnbonn -> Goodthanx 25 Mar 2015 09:31
You are on fire today, 'how are you'. Keep it going.
Griffon79 -> GreatMountainEagle 25 Mar 2015 09:31
Erm. Ukraine can. Ukraine is like a child that does not understand why her parents wont give
her more money after she spends her allowance on candy.
Only instead of candy, she is spending her money on weapons with which to attack her own (former)
citizens.
Griffon79 -> Demi Boone 25 Mar 2015 09:26
Its getting bad then since this has been true from the start.
How embarassing for the Guardian; history will not be kind to the complicit, useful idiots
who have prostituted their credibility on the altar of propaganda.
johnbonn -> retsdon 25 Mar 2015 09:25
How else was the US going to conduct a regime change. And speaking of thugs and carpet baggers
Joe Biden fits in nicely.
And why would you put the words western and credibility together - - a contradiction in terms.
Griffon79 -> jezzam 25 Mar 2015 09:19
"Ukraine will not be allowed to founder by the West whatever "
HAHAHAHAHAHA
Are you really that naive? Explains a lot, if you are Ukrainian. Idealists, not realists.
Griffon79 -> Vladimire_Poutine 25 Mar 2015 09:16
Well, as a Canadian, I certainly don't support your blatant lies and distortions.
The misinformation campaign headquartered in Langley has failed, miserably. People are only
too aware of how our corrupt governments have connived in order to support a coup. People are
only too aware that the coup government is a mashup of neonazi nationalists, corrupt oligarchs
and poorly trained and equipped (and led - look at Debaltseve) conscripts who are deserting in
droves.
We are aware the vast majority of the roughly 1 MILLION refugees fled East, to Russia. Not
West, to the people trying to kill them. We are aware the vast majority of the killed civilians
were killed by the Ukrainian coup government using artillery and that those same forces are being
trained and equipped by our subservient governments.
We are aware Ukraine is a financial black hole that our governments will throw taxpayer dollars
into, despite a crumbling domestic economy.
Oh - on the neonazis, dont even try to deny it. The Guardiane even posted an article about
'women of the revolution' unintentionally exposing their neonazi leanings when they were photogrpahed
next to a van showing the brigade insignia of the SS (yes, that SS, WAFFEN SS)
Long and short, the battle for 'hearts and minds' is long lost. If the US agitates for WWIII
to save their bankrupt state, I think the leaders best check their heads are still attached to
their shoulders. People are the power, not the banksters and their puppets.
This conflict has done more to awaken Western citizens to the utter abrogation of our soverignity
to US aggression than any of their previous illegal adventures. We dont like what we see.
sodtheproles -> MaiKey Dee 25 Mar 2015 08:34
That's why they called shelling their own citizens an anti-terrorist operation. The Americans
have a lot to answer for, not least their abuse of the English language. Anyone remember 'collateral
damage'?
MaiKey Dee 25 Mar 2015 08:26
I thought the IMF was not permitted to lend to countries in a state of civil war
todaywefight 25 Mar 2015 08:08
Poroshenko: Ukrainian army among five strongest in Europe
Yet they have to "orderly" retreat in the middle of the night from Debaltsevo leaving dead
and injured behind as well as equipment. Furthermore they keep on begging for more money to arm
these army while the population cannot afford to feed itself...
retsdon 25 Mar 2015 07:56
As this well-researched article at the Saker makes evident, the Ukrainian leadership is
a rat's nest of criminals, thugs, and carpet-baggers. It debases western credibility entirely
that we even deal with such people at all, leave alone support and court them. And it dirties
the rest of us by association.
Victoria Nuland's background is even more telling. Quite frightening in fact.
todaywefight -> Standupwoman 25 Mar 2015 07:28
I have taken the liberty to copy your post to a series of documents that I keep since the beginning
of this sad episodes...as your comment is one of the very few posts that is solid and deeply relevant,
as such it affects ones feelings just as deeply, thank you.
Crimea has been experiencing an upsurge in development following its reunification with Russia
thanks to the country's investment in the republic. "Crimea has not developed at such a pace as
it has in the past year over the past twenty years.
Unfortunately, the 23-year-long tenure in Ukraine has been the time of regression for Crimea.
The Ukrainian government did not invest a single penny into Crimea, at the same time it sucked
out all possible resources from here," Polonsky told Sputnik, stressing that Russia "is taking
an entirely different route" which is making a "drastic" difference on the peninsula. But even
if Crimea residents were told not to expect any investment from the Russian government a year
ago, they would have "still made the choice of becoming part of Russia," the minister stressed.
The social standards, salaries and the level of medical services in Crimea grew sharply in the
past year.
Standupwoman 25 Mar 2015 06:49
"Everybody in the free world should be doing more to help Ukraine. This is a country that
has given its life for democracy and is protecting Europe from an aggressive neighbour".
Listen, Ms 'Insider Trading' Jaresco, and I'll tell you what you and your country have actually
done to Britain.
You've damaged our economy by unjust sanctions, and used our taxpayers' money to fund your
murderous war on your own people. British citizens are reduced to living off food banks, but you're
demanding we divert our spending into NATO defence – to fight an enemy that would never have been
a threat if you hadn't interfered in the first place.
You've released a poison into Europe that will take generations to cure. You've split us in
two, revived old racial hatreds, and brought back the spectre of Nazism to the countries that
suffered from it most. You've forced us into provocations that have brought us to the very brink
of war – and one that threatens to destroy us all.
You've insulted our war dead by your revision of history. You've hailed Hitler as a liberator,
deified those who committed mass murder under the Nazi flag, and defiled monuments to those who
resisted him. You've made our war sacrifices worthless, and forced us to stand by while Nazi sympathizers
glorify their heroes at the site of our own Cenotaph. You've forced us to insult our war allies
by snubbing the May 9th acknowledgement of the millions of Russian dead whose sacrifice enabled
our own country to survive. You've dishonoured us all.
You've taken away our self-respect, and put us for ever on the wrong side of history. You've
forced us to condone the destruction of democracy, and made us complicit in war crimes. You've
put us in breach of the Hague Conventions, the Geneva Conventions, the Vienna Conventions for
the protection of Embassies, and even made us abandon the presumption of innocence. God knows
we didn't have much moral credibility after our colonial past, but you've taken from us every
last little shred of decency we had left.
And now you want us to pay for the privilege?
No, Ms Jaresco. You can take your begging bowl back to Washington and tell them, 'You broke
it – you own it.' Get them to stop the war, bring justice to the innocent, and give freedom to
the people of the East. Get them to help those ordinary decent Ukrainians who only wanted the
chance of a better life, and were misled by you to their ruin. Get them to rebuild Donbass, give
back homes to the 1.5 million displaced people, help and compensate the bereaved families of those
60,000 dead. And when they've done all that, then it'll be time to start thinking about what reparations
you can make to us…
Its fantastic isnt it? You couldnt script better characters than a self styled President in
rent a Prop Poroshenko, Pre Menstraul Yatsintook, 'Its a miracle i can walk' Tymoshenko.. The
list goes on..
TrueBrit1066 -> Jeff1000 25 Mar 2015 06:42
Thanks for this. Why does this not surprise me? :)
oleteo -> Jeff1000 25 Mar 2015 06:37
I'd wish a success to Ukies but ultranationalism can't be a success
HollyOldDog -> justTR 25 Mar 2015 06:37
Except for those countries who refuse to keep filling the pot.
Sargv_ -> jezzam 25 Mar 2015 06:35
> The only countries in recent history that have resorted to mass killings of their own people
are Russia, China and Cambodia
USSR was not Russia, not even by a long shot. For starters, Russians were a minority on all
levels of early-days soviet state machine, and were, by far, the most oppressed nation during
communist rule. Consider the gains and losses for all the nations occupied by bosheviks prior
to communist revolution, and after the Soviet collapse.
It's Russians, Chechens Russian Germans who lost the most, while Georgia - a homeland of Stalin,
and Ukraine - a homeland of Kruschev and Brezhnev, gained enormous territories and industries.
They lost most of this in just 25 years, but that's anothe story.
todaywefight -> Albatros18 25 Mar 2015 06:32
Sorry I don't see any mention of demonstrations and the army getting ready mate..just give
me a link please
Albatros18 -> todaywefight 25 Mar 2015 06:32
she is the only candidate who does not scream for war. People, especially his allies, are fed
up with Yatsenyuk's foul, nonsense, warmongering language. Let's see who will be the winner of
this fight for power.
todaywefight -> Albatros18 25 Mar 2015 06:28
Thank you very much
oleteo 25 Mar 2015 06:27
Good girl, good start.
At the beginning there was the begging for money, now and then there would be an incessant
begging to write off.
Albatros18 -> todaywefight 25 Mar 2015 06:27
Porkoshenko's website.
Verbum -> jezzam 25 Mar 2015 06:25
The US spent 5 billion between 1991 and 2014 on the development of standard democratic institutions
in Ukraine
Is Kolomoisky and his private army one of the 'standard democratic institutions' funded by
the US in Ukraine?
Verbum -> Albatros18 25 Mar 2015 06:23
Kolomoisky, Poroshenko, Yats... Is it the 'democracy' the Yanks spent 5 billion dollars on?
The dollar doesn't seem to buy much nowadays. And Nuland's cookies to top it all up... All wasted.
Sargv_ 25 Mar 2015 06:21
With all that constant 'donate for the good cause' narrative here and there, Ukraine should
finally drop the idea of being a sovereign state (as they are clearly suck at this) and register
as a World-first 45mln-strong charity organisation instead.
Goodthanx -> Albatros18 25 Mar 2015 06:19
I say let them! The fighters of DPR are looking forward to the resupply!
Jeff1000 25 Mar 2015 06:18
Finance minister Natalie Jaresko...
Interesting notes on the career/life of Ms Jaresko:
- Born in America, still a US citizen.
- Not a Ukrainian citizen until 2014, Poroshenko pushed a special law through parliament in order
to make her FM.
- Her dual citizenships are illegal under Ukrainian law (they seem to be OK with it).
- Held jobs at: The US State Dept, the US Treasury and the Overseas Private Investment Corporation.
Just another sign that the USA has absolutely NOTHING to do with the mess in Kiev, and
it certainly isn't about grabbing money, influence and/or natural resources.
Goodthanx -> todaywefight 25 Mar 2015 06:17
I have never lived there, but a close examination and reading of history plus an attitude that
remembers we are talking about human life.. Is enough to convince me to the virtues of this cause.
ID075732 -> Parangaricurimicuaro 25 Mar 2015 06:16
But it's no secret where she came from!
todaywefight -> Albatros18 25 Mar 2015 06:16
Apparently he resigned... and Poroshenko accepted his resignation and installed one of his
followers to the position.
Do you have any links to the rest of your post? if that lady becomes the PM Ukraine is gone
for all money.
Sargv_ -> nickpossum 25 Mar 2015 06:15
> Two simple truths. The West does not want a war with Russia. If Russia attacks the West,
it will be destroyed.
If Russia attacks the West, it'll attack the part it can reach, which is, obviously, the EU.
So the outcome will be slightly more complicated: Russia attacks The West, EU and Russia are
both destroyed, while The Rest of The West grab all the gains (nobody will ever mention that $17tln
debt; there'd be no high-end market competition wit US goods - and so on, and so forth).
There's only one winner in this conflict, no matter how hot it will get: the USoA. Europeans
are predefined to the role of economical donor for pro-US Ukraine at best, WW3 cannon fodder at
worst.
todaywefight -> Goodthanx 25 Mar 2015 06:12
What is sad is that, having lived in the country for many years I feel so sorry for the people,
the normal people, not the Gucci, Ferragamo and Zegna brigade the guys wearing $4000 suits wth
a black tee shirt, the ones that their idea of being part of parliament is to sit the whole day
in Passage, or go to Da vinci fo lunch or go to Mafia for dinner and look important when their
chauffeurs open the door of the black mercs a disgusting low life.
It will never be the same, forces were unleashed last year by Nuland that helped create
a generational hatred and the loss of life not to mention the lose of 1/5 of the country and if
Poroshenko or anyone else think that the eggs can be unscrambled I can advise them that they do
not need the IMF but a bunch of Clinical Psychiatrists
HollyOldDog vr13vr 25 Mar 2015 06:09
But it won't last. The Anericans always screwup.
Sargv_ -> geedeesee 25 Mar 2015 06:06
> "Jaresko said that, in five years, she wanted to see a Ukraine at peace"
"In five years I want to be a five years sober." We definitely need an international AA for
country-wide hangovers caused by 'we are the people' riots.
HollyOldDog -> someoneionceknew 25 Mar 2015 06:05
But the USA fallout is to destroy whatever is left of the Ukraine economy leaving it citizens
with far higher food and fuel costs.
While Russia is finding new friends and markets the World over. Strange how many countries
are now learning that if you don't protect your back then expect an USA knife trying to rip your
guts out .
DerFremde -> HollyOldDog 25 Mar 2015 06:05
wag the dog, Holly, wag the dog
first law of democratisation, you will open your markets to us in full. nationalised assets
will be privatised and you will take out IMF loans to do the 'restructuring' not the so-called
investors. this debt will be paid for by the population in due course.
Albatros18 25 Mar 2015 06:03
Kolomoisky sacked by Poroshenko, the former's private army is on alert to attack government
buildings, hundreds protest in Kiev asking Yatsenyuk's head, the reports suggest that the finance
minister, the Chicago born lady to become PM, the junta still shells Donetsk towns, and what the
Americans want: send more weapons. Only continuing conflict would save the Americans' crooks in
Kiev in short term.
todaywefight -> Goodthanx 25 Mar 2015 05:57
Yes actually I saw one of the interviews, she wants the Russians not to call the debt, she
also wants peace and then she turns the switch on and talks like Nuland and proceeds to shit all
over Russia, It think the girl will be done like a dinner in no time...
todaywefight -> jezzam 25 Mar 2015 05:47
Probably the most important part about your posts is that they are totally disconnected
from reality, and, as such we do not really have to even give you the courtesy of an answer.
todaywefight -> jezzam 25 Mar 2015 05:42
...the 2,000,000 to 3,600,000 killed in Vietnam and the millions left without limbs and the
destruction of their cities. How about the hundreds of thousands dead in latin america due to
the intervention of the US...the exceptional country...the thing is that all these deaths were
based on lies invented by your country
What exactly do you call the targeted wooden buildings and the firebombing of these buildings
by 300 b29s killing an US official "100000" and two days later the bombing of Hyrishima and Nagasaky,
the 1,000,000 killed in Ira
Goodthanx -> Vladimire_Poutine 25 Mar 2015 02:36
As a Jew myself, i can tell you that Kolomovsky and the likes of him, does not represent me
or the greater Ukrainian Jewish community. Referencing a 'dial-a-jew', does not provide validity
to your argument, just provides further fuel to the propoganda fire.
Lastly i believe the question was, 'who do you work for?'
MSM is full of articles and comments that demonise Putin and Russia. The problem is, there
is no where near enough attention and scrutiny brought towards the country that staged a violent
coup helped by neo nazis who now control critical ministerial positions in the Rada, declared
an ATO on their own civilian population in the east, murdered opposition and intimidate the rest,
burn thru international funds and pocket the rest, war crimes..etc
These are the issues.
PlatonKuzin 25 Mar 2015 02:04
Kolomoisky id no longer a governor but the questions remain and the conflict between the oligarchs
in Ukraine gains strong momentum. What next?
todaywefight 25 Mar 2015 01:58
In 1887, the struggle for control of Hawaii was at its height as David Kalakaua was elected
to the Hawaiian throne. King Kalakaua signed a reciprocity treaty with the United States making
it possible for sugar to be sold to the U.S. market tax-free, but the haole - or "white" -
businessmen were still distrustful of him. They criticized his ties to men they believed to
be corrupt, his revival of Hawaiian traditions such as the historic Hula, and construction
of the royal Iolani Palace. A scandal involving Kalakaua erupted in the very year he was crowned,
and it united his opponents, a party of businessmen under the leadership of Lorrin Thurston.
The opposition used the threat of violence to force the Kalakua to accept a new constitution
that stripped the monarchy of executive powers and replaced the cabinet with members of the
businessmen's party. The new constitution, which effectively disenfranchised most native Hawaiian
voters, came to be known as the "Bayonet Constitution" because Kalakaua signed it under duress.
Replace Nuland for Thurston and there you have a good example of there is no reason for reinventing
the wheel.
irishinrussia -> UncleSam404 25 Mar 2015 01:16
Russia is not broke by any stretch of the imagination. It has a very low debt to GDP ratio.
It still has $360 billion in reserves (even if that figure continues to decline at its current
rate - unlikely as the rouble has stabilised - that would still give them almost three years before
that money ran out). The budget deficit for last year was very small. This year it is projected
to be around 3% (incidentally, about what the US deficit was last year and is projected to be
for the next ten years). It continues to run a balance of payments surplus even with lower oil
prices. The situation in Russia is certainly not peachy, but it is a far cry from "broke".
Demi Boone -> Vladimire_Poutine 25 Mar 2015 01:09
Oh Vlad, take a look at the marches honoring the Ukranian SS that just took place across Ukraine
where thousands showed up, or the SS armbands worn by extreme right participants in the Maiden
or the Azov Battalion who brags of their SS devotion (but they are quick to denounce the atrocities
of WW2) I challenge you to show any article promoting NeoNazi's in Russia. You have obviously
not read any Russian History to know the hatred these people have for the idea of the Nazi. Your
accusations of Nemstov's murder are pure speculation based on your biased opinion. There were
no Nuclear threats made by Russia rather they were saying that all systems were on alert. When
a Russian plane flies close to the UK you had better believe they are on the same high alert.
With regards to your statement about News credibility most media sources in the US whitewash the
news. Did you read anything in any major papers about the people who were run over by Ukranian
forces and given permission to "shoot to kill" if the crowd got too out of hand and began to fight
back?
someoneionceknew -> Goodthanx 25 Mar 2015 00:57
What is it by the way, with her numerous investments in Ukraine and Moldova?
CIA, buddy. She's a company gal.
someoneionceknew 25 Mar 2015 00:51
"The good news is that we have made great progress on stability."
Words fail me.
These CIA types certainly can gild a lily when required.
Jerome Fryer normankirk 25 Mar 2015 00:44
The Russian economy in GDP terms is expected to have a 5% contraction year on year, then pick
up growing. That assumes no favourable changes in oil price, and doesn't factor in Putin's attempts
to steer the Russian economy into greater self-sufficiency. Oil is likely to recover, and the
attempt to shift / diversify the economy could go either way.
(At a minimum, they will be replacing as much of Ukraine's former supply of critical components
as quickly as possible. Russia have been handing out citizenship papers and jobs like candy to
any Ukrainians that were working in the defense related industries. Putin isn't trying to rebuild
the USSR, but he is trying to maintain the capabilities of the USSR by drawing critical personnel
-- and allegedly machinery -- into Russia.)
Jerome Fryer -> BorninUkraine 25 Mar 2015 00:33
It is very sad.
Western propaganda used to be a lot smarter, presumably because of the 'clash of ideologies'
background. Now we are back to the old, pre-Communist threat, standard of "The Kaiser eats babies".
Most people tend to only 'believe' this nonsense at a superficial level, though. Ask them about
the 'reporting' and you'll find that they consider the assertions dubious. Effective propaganda
is intended to operate at more of a subliminal / emotional level, and bypass our thinking abilities.
Jerome Fryer -> pantaraxia 25 Mar 2015 00:25
He is also president of European Council of Jewish Communities, which probably translates
into backing from powerful Jewish interests in the US and Israel.
That is debatable, and incorrect. See here for why he resigned from the ECJC and started his
own "European Jewish Union".
Kolomoisky is no less divisive than Poroshenko. He is, however, very much an 'old school'
Jewish mafia type -- and prone to blatant aggressive behaviour such as the recent takeover of
the UkrTransNafta building by his 'private security'.
Oh, and it appears that Poroshenko has gone with the option to try to arrest Kolomoisky's
'private security', as a start. (Source seems to be RT, though, so about as reliable / unreliable
as the BBC.)
todaywefight -> Vladimire_Poutine 25 Mar 2015 00:17
Are you from the newly created Ministry of Truth in Kyiv? or "ukraine tomorrow"?
The former is an oxymoron Truth and Ukraine should never be on the same sentence unless it says
Ukraine failed to tell the truth...that is acceptable...
I dont know Vladimire...in view of the current events and the little fight amongst the Oligarchs...and
accusations against Kolomoisky, his partners and his rather strong response, I am not sure who
the crazy ones are here.
HollyOldDog ID075732 25 Mar 2015 00:15
I could be wrong but I half remember a political cartoon depicting the USA as a Wreaking Ball
against some other economy. I will have to check later.
BorninUkraine rogermell1e 25 Mar 2015 00:04
Wow! The circus keeps going.
Poroshenko relieved Kolomoisky of duties of Dniepropetrovsk governor (directive 173/2015).
In response, Kolomoisky promised to take his battalions from the war zone with LNR/DNR and
direct them to take over Kremenchug power plant and the office of Ukrtransgas (Ukrainian "state"
company involved in transport of natural gas). Mega-thieves started all-out struggle, revealing
the criminal nature of current Ukrainian state for all to see in the process.
How can Western media report such a piece of evidence directly incriminating the US and EU?
Old_Donkey 24 Mar 2015 23:53
Let's hope that Natalie Jaresko's skills as a financier are better than her skills as a diplomat.
She's asking Russia to accept a haircut on $3 billion of debt, and Ukraine's situation is so desperate
that you can't blame her for trying. But if she wants the Kremlin to "buy into this vision", she
will need to learn some manners and show Russia some more respect first. Jaresko presents Ukraine
as a country that is "protecting Europe from an aggressive neighbour". No one who wanted to persuade
Vladimir Putin to restructure the debt would say that unless they were either very stupid or dutifully
repeating State Department propaganda (or both).
The fundamental problem with the Ukrainian government is that it is incapable of restoring
stability to Ukraine and instead seems hell-bent on a continuation of the civil war. The Kiev
government remains absolutely opposed to finding a political solution to the problems in Eastern
Ukraine and refuses to recognize the authority of the rebel leaders, who, in Donetsk and Lugansk,
are clearly "the only game in town". Jaresko's own government is busily wrecking the Minsk 2 agreement
and has thereby enormously increased the political risks attached to any new loans. Already, Ukrainian
forces have violated the ceasefire by firing on Russian journalists and OSCE observers near Shirokino.
The purpose of an IMF loan is not to enable a country to rearm or to continue fighting a civil
war but to help it to rebuild its financial system. Until we can be confident that Kiev is committed
to implementing Minsk 2, all IMF loans to the Kiev government would therefore be irresponsible
and offered on a dishonest basis. The IMF is specifically prohibited from offering war loans by
its own charter. At the moment, it looks as though Kiev needed Minsk 2 merely for form's sake,
so that it could screw some more cash out of Christine Lagarde to pay for a reconquest of the
Donbass once spring arrives.
Madame Lagarde's career has always benefitted from American support, and her eagerness to return
the favour is understandable. She knows how the game is played but she also knows that loyalty
to a patron has its limits. So if Jaresko and her State Department controllers expect Madame Lagarde
to violate the IMF's own rules by continuing to fund Ukraine's neo-Nazi war machine, they may
find themselves disappointed. Madame Lagarde still has a reputation to protect but Jaresko lost
hers as soon as she joined the criminal regime in Kiev.
Goodthanx 24 Mar 2015 23:46
"we are lucky to have the support of the IMF."
Yes well according to Jaresko's biography which includes very cosey relationship with the IMF,
i dont think luck played any hand in it.
What is it by the way, with her numerous investments in Ukraine and Moldova? Conflict of interest?
Or just business as usual?
Jaresko said she could not complain that Ukraine had been ignored while the European Union
tried to sort out the problems of Greece.
It's a joke isn't it?
Jaresko parachuted in by the US to help shore-up the coup they created financially and think
it should have the same status as Greece. Now claiming a similar restructuring package that the
EU refused for Tsipras?
The difference being that Ukraine is not part of the EU, nor part of NATO.
Jaresko is claiming that Russia is a threat to Europe? We all know Putin's big idea was for
more trade integration with Europe that was the actual threat the US didn't want. So they turned
Ukraine into a buffer against this happening, although its become more of a punch bag.
Another wreaking US intervention, we're all wise to this now. And when it's wreaked buy it
cheap - great for Amerika's business. A win win for US backed business, a lose lose for the Ukrainian
people!
EugeneGur 24 Mar 2015 23:31
Well, the oligarch war in Ukraine is intensifying. Kolomoiskyi threatened the head of Naftogas
to take his battalions out of the war zone and to occupy the office of Ukrtransgas and Kremenchug
power station. Poroshenko just fired Kolomoiskyi from his position of the Governor of Dnepropetrovsk
region, which Kolomoiskyi is not about to give up, of course. The Ukrainian parliament, Rada,
in the meantime is considering privatization of Privatbank owned by Kolomoiskyi, the move that
could crush whatever is left of the Ukrainian financial system. Curiouser and curiouser.
I do hope that even those people in the West who had no clue before now realize that kind of
personages their governments brought to power in Ukraine. Ukraine is in chaos, there is no government
to speak of, and all these colorful individuals keep their personal airplanes ready for immediate
departure.
Goodthanx 24 Mar 2015 23:09
"There is always a risk of a default," she added, noting that several factions in Ukraine's
parliament were demanding that the government go down that route.
In Ukraine, we call it the classic 'Ha Ha..screw you maneuver.'
twiglette 24 Mar 2015 23:04
This absurd narrativeve that Ukraine is a beacon of Western democracy! It is a corrupt racist
state whose current elite came to power in a U.S. inspired coupe that threw out the elected government
that wished to join Russia. It has fought a viscous war against its Russian east. It deserves
nothing.
rogermell1e 24 Mar 2015 23:03
Looks like Kolomoiskyi has had it. The "Kyiv Post" just ran an article in which they mention
that Kolo has (gasp) "connections to organised crime".
:-D
Last week they were *very* careful about what they said about Kolomoiskyi to the point of barely
reporting the events. But now the rats are fleeing the sinking ship.
Kolo had better skedaddle before we see yet another mysterious defenestration.
OneTop 24 Mar 2015 22:58
Natalie Jaresko wants to see debt cut and interest on remainder reduced so Ukraine can
move towards stability
Jaresko is a US citizen who was appointed by Nuland [Assistant Secretary of State for European
and Eurasian Affairs] to run the finance ministry of the Ukraine. (the Ukraine granted her citizenship
-- to give the appearance of legitimacy).
The Ukraine is run by very powerful oligarchs who have to date, much more political and real
power than the western installed and supported Poroshenko.
There is no doubt the US / West will continue to support Poroshenko as he desperately needs
US support to maintain his position, the more powerful "other" oligarchs with their private armies
do not.
Jaresko is simply parroting US diktat (her paymasters) which is building the narrative that
Ukraines' debt to Russia (primarily for energy) be legally declared as odious debt.
Which means that the Ukraine could stiff Russia for the billions it owes for goods and services
already rendered.
In plain words, Jaresko is a mindless mandarin installed by America in an effort to wrest Ukraine
from their evil Russian masters.
Vaska Tumir Kata L 24 Mar 2015 22:11
America's Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, has now informed him, in no uncertain
terms, that "the law of the jungle" must end in Ukraine.
Ambassador Pyatt's statements are taken very seriously by Ukrainian Government officials.
Really?
They ARE the "law of the jungle" enforcers in Ukraine, as Pyatt knows perfectly well. In this
instance, what we have is a situation in which a set of criminals of exactly the same sort as
those in power but currently not in the government itself (Kolomoysky and his lot) is stronger
than the set of criminals the USA put in power in Kiev. That's what comes from having a foreign
policy based on pure banditry.
ChristopherMyers 24 Mar 2015 22:09
I realize this may be a very bizarre thought, but the situation here in the Ukraine bears a
striking resemblance to the annexation of Hawaii in 1898 by the United States.
BorninUkraine -> rogermell1e 24 Mar 2015 21:57
It's not only the media, it is much broader than that. When I left USSR in 1991, most educated
people believed BBC, Voice of America, and Western media in general, and had fairly good feelings
about the US and Europe.
When I started reading Russian news sites last year (simply because the Western narrative about
Ukrainian crisis made no sense to someone who has friends and relatives all over Ukraine), I was
appalled by the level of anti-American and anti-EU feelings. Americans are called almost invariably
"pindós" [Cyrillic spelling пиндос], which is a pretty derogative term, the US is called "pindostan",
and most people think that Western media lie almost as much as Ukrainian media, which are notorious
for ludicrous lies (like the story that Russia used nukes in the fight for Lugansk airport).
In the USSR I always knew that Soviet media are spewing propaganda, using half-truths and
blatant lies. However, compared to current reporting on Ukraine in the Western media, even Soviet
papers look truthful. It is very sad.
pantaraxia 24 Mar 2015 21:45
It will be fascinating to see which way the US goes with Kolomoisky vs. Poroshenko.
On the one hand a lot of time and energy has been expended propping up the Poroshenko gov't.
In spite of this he is rapidly losing popularity with the populace and may be seen as expendable.
A convenient scapegoat for the failed military operation in eastern Ukraine. However another regime
change at this point would threaten the country with absolute chaos and would make external financing
arrangements problematic to say the least.
Kolomoisky is hooked into the US state department, via Bursima, the murky gas company where
both VP Biden's son and Kerry's stepson(?) are members of its Board. He is also president of European
Council of Jewish Communities, which probably translates into backing from powerful Jewish interests
in the US and Israel. Kolomoisky and Nuland seem to be kindred spirits both in their advocacy
for a military solution as well as their general ziocon tendencies.
Interesting times indeed.
whitemangotnodreamin -> normankirk 24 Mar 2015 21:41
Because they are probably under instructions to support Poroshenko and his side kick no matter
what..lest they want their hard drives smashed to smithereens in the carpark as it happened before.
They did it with Iraq, Libya, Syria, Torture and Kidnapping, Diego Garcia...all of these glossed
over...lately even the "suicide" of 7 party of regions members they reported as 4 and did not
open for comments...such is life
frankverismo -> Chirographer 24 Mar 2015 21:39
"I don't think anybody really wants to lend or give the Ukraine any money because of the
rampant corruption and "mismanagement" referred to in the article."
I don't think you get how this works. Or you simply don't wish to see the sheer depth of the
venality at work. Jaresko has been put there by Washington. The plan is exactly the opposite of
granting Ukraine its sovereign independence but rather to put it even further into debt thus putting
it completely at the mercy of outside forces. It's already a black hole - and she's asking for
the death blow.
"And the Ukraine's problems didn't start with the war or Yanukovich. While he might have
been the biggest crook who ruled the country, he has competition for that title from previous
leaders too."
Correct.
"Russia's aggression and policy of destabilisation is a huge aggravating factor at present"
Kindly tell us all about this 'aggression'. Be specific. You are, I assume, aware that Russia
has had its Black Sea Fleet stationed in Crimea since the 18th century? What was Russia going
to do when a US-backed coup happened on her doorstep? Hand her naval base over to NATO and let
Kiev do to Crimea what they've been doing in Donbass? Really? Be honest. What would you have done?
"Ukraine's failing economy is another anchor, with low oil prices and western sanctions,
tied to the feet of a sinking Russia."
Were the Russian economy remotely similar to the US' this might be so. But it isn't. It has
a low debt-to-GDP ratio, an expanding manufacturing base and countries other than Europe and the
US perfectly willing to trade with it (and not in US$). The sanctions are certainly an annoyance
as is the low oil price but long-term this will only serve to further divorce Russia from the
West's sick fiat system - a very healthy thing.
rogermell1e Systematic 24 Mar 2015 21:34
"I wonder how long can The Guardian & Co."
I guess at some point last year they made the strategic decision that any credibility amongst
those who are well informed could be sacrificed. Very few Westerners (especially in the Anglosohere)
will make the effort to find alternative sources, and the rest can easily be gulled.
This is really a victory for Russia, because at one time a substantial part of the intelligentsia
had some trust in the western MSM. This has now almost completely evaporated.
TOR2000 24 Mar 2015 21:33
Kiev continues to violate the ceasefire (OSCE):
Between 09:40 and 10:40hrs, whilst at an observation point in the eastern outskirts of Sopyne
(government-controlled, 15km east of Mariupol, 2.5km west of Shyrokyne) the SMM heard heavy
engagement of small arms, machine guns, automatic grenade launchers and mortars, including
70 outgoing 82mm and 120mm mortar shells. The SMM assessed that the fire originated from one
kilometre to the east and was directed further east of the SMM's position. An additional ten
82mm mortar shells hit 400m east of the SMM's position, some of which detonated in the air
indicating that they were fitted with distance or time delay fuses. Due to the security situation,
the SMM relocated to another observation point 4km north-west of Shyrokyne ("DPR"-controlled,
20km east of Mariupol, 102km south of Donetsk). Between 11:33 and 12:06hrs the SMM observed
three incoming 82mm mortar shells exploding above Ukrainian Armed Forces positions north of
Berdyanske (government-controlled, 18km east of Mariupol). It also heard small arms and light
weapons fire as well as ten mortar detonations but was not able to ascertain the direction
and calibre.
The SMM unarmed/unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) monitored both sides of the contact line east
of Mariupol. At 17:38hrs, in Shyrokyne the SMM UAV observed outgoing mortar fire from a Ukrainian
Armed Forces position.
The SMM revisited four Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapons holding areas, all of which
comply with the respective withdrawal lines and remain in situ. All serial numbers are consistent
with previous visits. Additionally, the SMM intended to monitor two additional holding areas,
but these sites no longer contained any heavy weapons.
BorninUkraine -> rogermell1e 24 Mar 2015 21:33
Yes, the competition between two mega-thieves, Kolomoisky and Poroshenko, intensified in the
last few days. Considering that the head of SBU (Ukrainian KGB) Nalivaichenko, who is CIA agent
and US citizen, took the side of Poroshenko, the US plans to play against Kolomoisky. This does
not guarantee Poroshenko win, though: this is about a lot of money to be made on oil, gas, etc,
and then on grain that will be paid by farmers in return for credits for gas, diesel, and lubricants
they need for planting.
It is well known (not in the West, I am sure, where people are fed ridiculous lies) that for
this amount of money Kolomoisky would kill his own mother, let alone Poroshenko or even US ambassador.
So buying some popcorn is a good idea.
whitemangotnodreamin -> Jerome Fryer 24 Mar 2015 21:21
No prospect to repay 'loans' makes those loans unlikely.
Precisely, what Jaresko is essentially saying is give us the money but don't ask for it back...
Nick is a confused soul...or a purposely confused one.
whitemangotnodreamin 24 Mar 2015 20:41
I actually watched one of her interviews on Bloomberg, full of softballs, she seldom if ever
answered a question, in particular what would happen if Russia demands payment at the end of the
year, and the fact that they are asking creditors to take a rather large haircut. The softest
thing about this woman are her teeth, but as we will see being hard does not translate to being
tough, hit a brick in the right place and it breaks.
So let's see who is Natalie Jaresko:
" A Chicago-born investment banker who received her Ukrainian citizenship in December 2014,
she. is Ukraine's finance minister and in total control of Ukrainian financial policy. In the
late '80s and early '90s, she just so happened to hold several positions at the US State Department
before taking the position of Chief of the Economic Section of the US Embassy in Ukraine. She
also managed the USAID-financed Western NIS Enterprise Fund, which kindly provided funds for
'pro-democracy' movements in Belarus, Moldova and, predictably, Ukraine. "
Ms.Jaresko, is involved in court proceedings, again. This time for breaching US passport laws.
She was previously a US State Dept. employee and was granted Ukrainian citizenship so she could
take the job.
She has previously been in court over the misappropriation of US funding through her previous
company Horizon Capital. This company just happened to be a partner of Yatsenyuk's pre maidan
campaign. The other party in the case is her husband who she has been attempting to silence by
court order. She has also so far managed to silence her former husband spilling the beans of some
significant loan improprieties.
But, hey what would one expect of a President who, was secretly palling up to the US's embassy
in Kyiv when he was a minister for 3 different administrations in Ukraine, a man whose latest
Human resource success was the employment of "Help me or I'll eat my red tie" Saakashvili a man
wanted in Georgia who was being kept quietly in the US until now.
bobby_fisher 24 Mar 2015 20:33
US citizen, financial shaister and former State Department employee Natalie Jaresko is well
positioned as Finance minister of Ukraine to oversee implementation of the H.R. 5859, the Ukraine
Freedom Support Act, that among other things gives control to Washington over Ukrainian Energy
policies, provides protections to American oil, gas, biotech, financial corporate interests over
legitimate interests of Ukrainian people.
This seals the fate of Ukraine as US colony, instead of an independent state.
Chirographer 24 Mar 2015 20:32
I don't think anybody really wants to lend or give the Ukraine any money because of the rampant
corruption and "mismanagement" referred to in the article.
And the Ukraine's problems didn't start with the war or Yanukovich. While he might have been
the biggest crook who ruled the country, he has competition for that title from previous leaders
too.
Russia's aggression and policy of destabilisation is a huge aggravating factor at present,
but there will have to be real and substantial changes in the way Ukrainians conduct their businesses
and government before they're going to get the kind money the finance minister is asking for.
It does seem fitting though, that given the economic ties between the two countries, Ukraine's
failing economy is another anchor, with low oil prices and western sanctions, tied to the feet
of a sinking Russia.
HollyOldDog DerFremde 24 Mar 2015 20:23
The Russian Steppes? The Ukrainian fracking has not shown commercial quantities of gas/oil.
To try the same techniques in East Ukraine would mean closing down the existing coal mines first
and even then there is a serious risk of contaminating the fresh water both underground and surface
waters. All this with only minor prospects of finding commercial quantities of Fracked oil/gas.
If the existing cialthey mines in East Ukraine were closed down then where would West Ukraine
get its coal of a suitable quality to be used in its coal fired power stations?
HollyOldDog Manolo Torres 24 Mar 2015 20:11
And not forgetting the looting of the Iraq museums by any sneak theif who walked through the
unguarded doors . Only the Oil Ministry was important to the Americans.
pantaraxia HollyOldDog 24 Mar 2015 20:09
The Japanese had been attempting to surrender months before Hiroshima. The back channels went
through the USSR with no constructive response from the American side.
According to a number of analysts there was another reason for dropping the nuclear bombs
- to showcase to the USSR and the world the raw power available to the US military. A scare tactic.
Manolo Torres -> DIPSET 24 Mar 2015 19:30
That seems indeed a very good book, but one may end up extremely disgusted after reading it.
From the review, to give our friends an idea of what Mrs Jaresko might be up to now and why her
urgent plead:
An unprecedented account of life in Baghdad's Green Zone, a walled-off enclave of towering
plants, posh villas, and sparkling swimming pools that was the headquarters for the American
occupation of Iraq. The Washington Post's former Baghdad bureau chief Rajiv Chandrasekaran
takes us with him into the Zone; into a bubble, cut off from wartime realities, where the task
of reconstructing a devastated nation competed with the distractions of a Little America-a
half-dozen bars stocked with cold beer, a disco where women showed up in hot pants, a movie
theater that screened shoot-'em-up films, an all-you-could-eat buffet piled high with pork,
a shopping mall that sold pornographic movies, a parking lot filled with shiny new SUVs, and
a snappy dry-cleaning service- much of it run by Halliburton
In the vacuum of postwar planning, Bremer ignores what Iraqis tell him they want or need
and instead pursues irrelevant neoconservative solutions-a flat tax, a sell-off of Iraqi government
assets, and an end to food rationing. His underlings spend their days drawing up pie-in-the-sky
policies, among them a new traffic code and a law protecting microchip designs, instead
of rebuilding looted buildings and restoring electricity production.
Mordantdude 24 Mar 2015 19:14
Everybody in the free world should be doing more to help Ukraine. This is a country that has
given its life for democracy and is protecting Europe from an aggressive neighbour," she said.
Meanwhile with the little help from "the free world" Ukraine downgraded further into junk by
Moody's. Do you need more?
pantaraxia 24 Mar 2015 19:14
The whole IMF program is a con job, transferring debt onto the Ukrainian government and its
taxpayers (with the inevitable austerity and privatization programs to follow), while leaving
the back door wide open to systemic abuse by well-connected oligarchs.
As for where the IMF money which has been paid into the Ukrainian banks has gone, the report
discloses … the banking system faced large foreign currency outflows (US$3.1 billion). Capital
controls likely prevented larger outflows, but were not fully effective in stemming them."
In short, of the $3.2 billion disbursed to the Ukrainian treasury by the IMF at the start
of May, $3.1 billion had disappeared offshore by the middle of August.
The looting continues.
HollyOldDog -> nickpossum 24 Mar 2015 19:08
There is a history of the other side of the coin with the actions of the USA. When Japan was
on the point of defeat and negociations for Japan's surrender to the USA and its allies were occuring
, the USA decided to drop nuclear bombs on Japan. A senior military spokesman from that period
gave the reasons why.
1. To force Japan to surrender more quickley and solely under the terms Givern solely by the
USA.
2. If it saved only ONE DAY of negociations then dropping nuclear bombs on Jalan would be worth
it.
Millions of Japanese citizens died either through the the blasts themselves or by radiation
sickness just for the Americans to save ONE DAY of negociations.
pantaraxia 24 Mar 2015 18:36
For the sordid backstory on the IMF loan to Ukraine:
The new loan terms announced by the IMF last week, postpone reform by the commercial banks
until well into 2016. In the meantime, the IMF says it will allow about $4 billion of its loan
cash to be diverted to the treasuries of the oligarch-owned banks. That is almost one dollar
in four of the IMF loan to Ukraine.
The biggest beneficiary of last year's IMF financing is likely to repeat its good fortune,
according to sources close to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). This is PrivatBank, controlled
by Igor Kolomoisky , governor of Dniepropetrovsk region and financier of several units fighting
on Kiev's side in the civil war.
snip
…Kolomoisky has been assured by the IMF that he is one of the few Ukrainian taxpayers to
be safe from an increase in income tax.
snip
The justification for the PrivatBank payout, …
For collateral, Gontareva (NBU Governor) has accepted a shareholding in the bank, plus an undisclosed
number of airplanes owned by Kolomoisky, or by airlines associated with the Privat group. ….
They are all bankrupt, and so the asset value is uncertain and the subject of creditor claims
pending in several countries
and the punch line:
…." A Geneva banker with an office close to Kolomoisky's residence in the city comments:
"Not even the Swiss have thought of war financing like this – funding civil war, then taking
international loans for compensation, then banking the profit margin in Geneva."
DIPSET Manolo Torres 24 Mar 2015 18:17
Be fair, most of that money to rebuild Iraq was stolen by the same homicidal maniacs that destroyed
the country in the first place.
True that.
You won't find a better tome than this book on the whole debacle and financial corruption the
Yanks got into in Iraq.....
Because of bureaucratic delays, only 2 percent of the $18.4 billion Supplemental had been
spent. Nothing had been expended on construction, health care, sanitation, or the provision
of clean water, and more money had been devoted to administration than all projects related
to education, human rights, democracy, and governance combined. At the same time, the CPA had
managed to dole out almost all of a $20 billion development fund fed by Iraq's oil sales, more
than $1.6 billion of which had been used to pay Halliburton, primarily for trucking fuel into
Iraq.
Or this......
The first guy who was assigned to help rebuild Iraq's health sector was named Skip Burkle.
And Skip is physician. He has a Master's degree in public health. He has four postgraduate
degrees. He teaches at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health. He had worked in Kosovo,
in Somalia and in Northern Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War. He also was employed by the U.S. Agency
for International Development, and a USAID colleague called him the single most talented post-conflict
public health specialist in the U.S. government. But a few weeks after the fall of Saddam's
government, Mr. Burkle was informed by an email from a superior at USAID that he was being
replaced. He was told that the White House wanted, quote/unquote, "a loyalist" in the job.
And I write in the book that Burkle had a wall of degrees, but he didn't have a picture with
the President.
In his place was sent Jim Haveman. Jim Haveman does not have a medical degree. He was a
social worker, and he was the former Director of Community Health in the State of Michigan.
Prior to his stint in government, he had a little bit of international experience, but it was
largely in the context of being a director for International Aid, a faith-based relief organization
that promotes Christianity in the developing world in conjunction with development assistance.
And prior to that, he headed up a large adoption agency in the State of Michigan that urges
pregnant women not to have abortions.
Well, Haveman showed up, and his view was that, look, Iraq didn't need a huge infusion of
money to rebuild its hospitals, even though I and other people who have been to Iraqi hospitals
have seen them to be thoroughly decrepit and really, you know, in need of an overhaul, and
particularly with the violence that's wracking that country today and the number of injured
from insurgent attacks. You would think that really putting resources toward rebuilding emergency
rooms would be a top priority.
Instead, Haveman devoted resources to other projects.
And now they have moved onto Ukraine.
Good luck is all i can say......
Bosula -> Mike_UK 24 Mar 2015 17:56
Ukraine is a country not a business. The interests of countries are very different from fund
mangers, hedge funds, etc.
Very unusual to bring in a foreigner to a country to run a finance ministry when there are
serious legal allegationS about propriety hanging over her head.
Could you imagine bringing in a Sate Department official to run the finances of the UK?
Ukraine has a lot of smart people...
Another Nuland buddy meddling in Ukrainian affairs.
DIPSET BunglyPete 24 Mar 2015 17:53
now emblazined with Bransons face in giant ads as testament to the corporate takeover
Ah yes, the faustian pact and it's tentacles are eating Ukraine up (and soon to spit out an
empty husk) right in front of our eyes.
Remember that American company that brought up all that pure and rich soil and agricultural
land in Ukraine ?
Look what's been happening back at the ranch in Yankee Land......
After paying an original sum of $2.4 million to reimburse farmers for contaminating their
fields with genetically modified wheat that had not even yet been approved for farming, Monsanto
has been forced to pay another $350,000 in order to settle a class action lawsuit brought upon
by numerous farmers from over seven different states.
The news comes amid economic struggles for the biotech juggernaut that have resulted in
the loss of share value and poor projections for the long term future. In last year's fourth
quarter, Monsanto reported a loss of $156 million. And for the multi-billion dollar company,
it's not about the monetary figure, but the future of its genetically modified creations that
the public just simply isn't buying.
In the latest legal settlement, we find that Monsanto's new method of simply paying off
farmers just isn't going to cut it when it comes to international trade. Following the news
that GMO wheat had contaminated nearby wheat supplies, Japan and South Korea suspended a number
of wheat orders from the United States - a blow towards the national economy in full thanks
to Monsanto.
And these are the "friends" Ukraine have placed their trust in since this whole think kicked
off last year.
Who needs enemies, eh ?
Fascinating times...
frankverismo -> nnedjo 24 Mar 2015 17:36
"Why has the United States spent so much money and time so disastrously trying to rebuild
occupied nations abroad, while allowing its own infrastructure to crumble untended? Why do
we even think of that as "policy"?
The Wolfowitz Doctrine is a giant boot sworn to crush national self-determination wheresoever
on the globe it may be found. If ordinary Americans have to pay the bill, so be it.
It's not much of a policy - but it's what happens when Washington is taken over by those the
White House used to rightly refer to as 'The Crazies'.
BunglyPete DIPSET 24 Mar 2015 17:30
9
10
It gets better! Pinchuk made donations to the Clinton fund before Maidan, and not only this he
was the top contributor.
Back in September 2013 they all met with Blair, Branson, IMF and more to hash it all out in Yalta
at a Pinchuk bash.
Check vesti-ukr.com a Ukraine news site now emblazined with Bransons face in giant ads as testament
to the coporate takeover. Fantastic stuff.
Some images remain like scars on my memory. One of the last things I saw in Iraq, where
I spent a year with the Department of State helping squander some of the $44 billion American
taxpayers put up to "reconstruct" that country, were horses living semi-wild among the muck
and garbage of Baghdad. ...
I flew home that same day, a too-rapid change of worlds, to a country in which the schools
of my hometown in Ohio could not afford to pay teachers a decent wage. Once great cities were
rotting away as certainly as if they were in Iraq, where those horses were scrabbling to get
by.
To this day I'm left pondering these questions: Why has the United States spent so much
money and time so disastrously trying to rebuild occupied nations abroad, while allowing its
own infrastructure to crumble untended? Why do we even think of that as "policy"?
Canigou 24 Mar 2015 17:24
I like the picture at the top of the article-----it shows burning tires, tired and hungry-looking
men sitting on makeshift seats and shivering, trash strewn about, some motley men in the background
standing about doing nothing, some sinister-looking smoke rising as a backdrop. A bleak, hellish,
desperate, post-apocalyptic landscape.
It seems to be from the Maidan riots of last year, but makes a fitting image for an article
about the Ukraine economy of 2015.
EugeneGur 24 Mar 2015 17:23
Well, people of Europe, it's time to open up your wallets to pay for the handiwork of your
leaders. Ukraine is indeed a large country on the verge of economical collapse marred in a civil
war. The present "government" did everything in its power to ruin the economy succeeding quite
well. They alienated and then destroyed Donbass responsible for a good part of the country's economic
output. They disrupted economic ties with Russia, the main trading partner, so most enterprises
have closed or are closing throwing workers out on the streets.
Give these people more money - and they'll spend some on the war they'll lose, and steal the
rest. It is hard to tell whether they are more inept or corrupt - I guess they are just well-rounded
individuals combining the highest degree of greed and corruption with utter stupidity/ineptitude
and total disregard for their country's interests. One example: Ukraine is short on coal, but
the miners in Volyne region, the only coal deposit outside of Donbass, haven't been paid for months
and are now on strike. Is that what they mean by "structural reforms", not paying salaries any
more?
HollyOldDog -> UncleSam404 24 Mar 2015 17:23
Interesting, so you agree with the Ukrainian Oligarts having a right to plunder the assets
of Ukraine - Let the People eat cake. Perhaps this attitude that the West has to Ukraine will
bolster the undercurrent of discontent within West Ukraine citizens to boot out its current government
and Western Freeloaders.
A French style revolution baring the gillotine is in the cards.
nnedjo 24 Mar 2015 17:19
Jaresko said the IMF loan was enough to stabilise the economy but not sufficient to "reorganise
and renew" it.
The intention to "reorganise and renew" Ukraine's economy is very generous indeed. However,
before accepting this job, Ms. Jaresko should draw some lessons from previous unsuccessful attempts
of the kind:
The U.S. has spent more reconstructing Iraq and Afghanistan than it did rebuilding Germany
after World War II. And it's not done yet.
Released: January 18, 2013
The United States has invested more reconstructing Iraq and Afghanistan than
it did rebuilding Germany after World War II. $60.45 billion has been spent in Iraq, more than
$100 billion in Afghanistan. For comparison, the U.S. spent less than $35 billion in today's
dollars in Germany from 1946 through 1952...
These are reconstruction costs only; the total cost to the U.S. of the Iraq and Afghan conflicts
exceeds $1.4 trillion.
babalua Mike_UK 24 Mar 2015 17:18
Ukraine is not to be compared to anything, let alone to a company. Parasite living off Russia,
EU and everyone else. Should not really be a state. With crooks in power? Not only crooks, but
literally scum?! You call it a country and compare it to whatever? Oh, god, wake up. You know
, the funnu thing is that this black hole of Europe even wants to compete with Russia. Who are
these people from U? Are they taking LSD?
DIPSET BunglyPete 24 Mar 2015 17:17
She also recently spoke at the Brookings insitute of which Nulands husband is a key member. Theyre
all in it together in one big circle of dodgy deals and kickbacks.
:-)
As always, you are spot on Sir.
I'm sure you have read this but sharing is caring as they say lol..........
Victoria Nuland and Robert Kagan have a great mom-and-pop business going. From the State Department,
she generates wars and – from op-ed pages – he demands Congress buy more weapons.
......a new Cold War took shape. Prominent neocons, including Nuland's husband Robert Kagan, a
co-founder of the Project for the New American Century which masterminded the Iraq War, hammered
home the domestic theme that Obama had shown himself to be "weak," thus inviting Putin's "aggression."
In May 2014, Kagan published a lengthy essay in The New Republic entitled "Superpowers Don't Get
to Retire," in which Kagan castigated Obama for failing to sustain American dominance in the world
and demanding a more muscular U.S. posture toward adversaries.
According to a New York Times article about how the essay took shape and its aftermath, writer
Jason Horowitz reported that Kagan and Nuland shared a common world view as well as professional
ambitions, with Nuland editing Kagan's articles, including the one tearing down her ostensible boss.
Though Nuland wouldn't comment specifically on her husband's attack on Obama, she indicated that
she held similar views. "But suffice to say," Nuland said, "that nothing goes out of the house that
I don't think is worthy of his talents. Let's put it that way."
Horowitz reported that Obama was so concerned about Kagan's assault that the President revised
his commencement speech at West Point to deflect some of the criticism and invited Kagan to lunch
at the White House, where one source told me that it was like "a meeting of equals."
I found this bit even more fascinating......
And, whenever peace threatens to break out in Ukraine, Nuland jumps in to make sure that the interests
of war are protected. Last month, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande
hammered out a plan for a cease-fire and a political settlement, known as Minsk-2, prompting Nuland
to engage in more behind-the-scenes maneuvering to sabotage the deal.
In another overheard conversation - in Munich, Germany - Nuland mocked the peace agreement as
"Merkel's Moscow thing," according to the German newspaper Bild, citing unnamed sources, likely from
the German government which may have bugged the conference room in the luxurious Bayerischer Hof
hotel and then leaked the details.
Picking up on Nuland's contempt for Merkel, another U.S. official called the Minsk-2 deal the
Europeans' "Moscow bullshit."
Nuland suggested that Merkel and Hollande cared only about the practical impact of the Ukraine
war on Europe: "They're afraid of damage to their economy, counter-sanctions from Russia." According
to the Bild story, Nuland also laid out a strategy for countering Merkel's diplomacy by using strident
language to frame the Ukraine crisis.
"We can fight against the Europeans, we can fight with rhetoric against them," Nuland reportedly
said
Europe has got itself entangled in some bullshit it is going to regret for a looooong time.
Hope them cookies tasted good and were worth it.
BunglyPete 24 Mar 2015 16:57
Jaresko is quite possibly the most poorly judged person to be in her position, nevermind
make these claims.
She is not only a US citizen ex State Dept employee who was granted Ukrainian citizenship just
to take the job, she is involved in other affairs that seriously question her credibility.
Firstly she is involved in a lawsuit filed by her ex husband who claims she missappropriated
USAID funds through her Ukrainian company Horizon Capital. She had a court injuction taken out
to prevent her husband discussing the case.
Furthermore, Horizon Capital funded Yatsenyuk's Open Ukraine campaign in the years before
he came to power.
The whole idea of the new government was to get rid of corruption and outside influence and
move to a new honest and accountable system.
Now we have a foreigner trying their hardest to push more IMF debt which benefits very few
people other than those friendly to Jaresko; which would be, western financial and corporate
interests, the main IMF stakeholders and the Yatsenyuk government.
Ukrainian citizens lose pensions and fight over food in supermarkets as Jaresko is chaffeuered
around in the most expensive car her ministry has ever bought.
She also recently spoke at the Brookings insitute of which Nulands husband is a key member.
Theyre all in it together in one big circle of dodgy deals and kickbacks.
nnedjo -> Mike_UK 24 Mar 2015 16:56
What the hell was the problem before the Russians invaded that justified armed take over of
police stations and tanks being sent into Ukraine.
The government which the Ukrainian people voted in the previous election was violently
overthrown in Kiev, by the people for which the people from the Donbas not only never voted,
but in many cases not even know them.
So, it's very simple. People from Donbas took care to protect their police stations and
other government buildings that foreign visitors would not have entered into them.
frankverismo 24 Mar 2015 16:56
"Everybody in the free world should be doing more to help Ukraine. This is a country
that has given its life for democracy and is protecting Europe from an aggressive neighbour,"
she said.
Was a more incorrect statement ever made? The 'democracy' of which she speaks was, sadly,
Victoria Nuland's idea of democracy: "the democracy Ukraine deserves".
Does Ukraine really 'deserve' to be torn apart by warring oligarchs while being used by
Washington as a proxy war theatre to bait Russia into a wider conflict? Should the Ukranian
people have seen this coming? Probably. Did they ever have much choice in the matter? Little,
if any. A bloody tragedy.
brianboru1014 psygone 24 Mar 2015 16:44
Russian economy going down the tubes?
I very much doubt it. They have what the West needs, and lots of it
The article is about this Ukrainian Foreign Minister, a woman with a begging bowl and really
zero to offer the West except a monstrous headache. Too bad Bush's neocon Victoria Nuland (who
should have been dismissed by Obama, but wasn't) but was able to poison everything in this
particular part of the world with her now famous obscene comment referring to the European
Union.[11] After discussing Ukrainian opposition figures Nuland stated that she preferred the
United Nations as mediator, instead of the European Union, adding "Fuck the EU,".
So as a result, the EU will give her zero.
nnedjo 24 Mar 2015 16:34
"Everybody in the free world should be doing more to help Ukraine. This is a country that
has given its life for democracy and is protecting Europe from an aggressive neighbour," she [Mrs
Jaresko] said.
So, practically until yesterday, in its economic existence Ukraine relied on its
"aggressive neighbor." This is what Russian PM Medvedev wrote about it in his article, at the
end of last year:
How Russia supported the Ukrainian economy
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, all of this (including the gas transport system)
went to Ukraine. In addition, Russia took on the entire Soviet debt. Ukraine entered a new
era in its history, free of any burden. That is why in 1991 its initial conditions for
economic growth were among the best in the post-Soviet space. And that's precisely why the
economy of independent Ukraine managed to remain afloat. Until recently, Ukraine was using
its past achievements to survive. It continued to rely on cooperation with Russia. And it
used our resources.
Does Mrs. Jaresko thought to this when she said that "Ukraine protects Europe from its
aggressive eastern neighbor." Okay, no problem. Aggressive eastern neighbor no longer needs to
pumped gas and money to Ukraine with its invasive methods. As of this moment its "less
aggressive" Western friends can take on this responsibility. In particular, the country of
origin of Mrs. Jaresko, United States, could take care of it. It is also a very big country,
and besides, they constantly boast to their economic superiority over Russia.
Well then, if you wanted, here you go, be our guest!
SHappens -> Mike_UK 24 Mar 2015 16:26
It's the same with ISIS supporters and ISIS terrorists, they need each other for
their terrorist activities to spread
Indeed, what we do not hear about is that while we fight the Islamic State, alias ISIS, in
Iraq and Syria, Washington and the Caliphate are fighting on the same side in Ukraine.
Nobody is paying attention to the role played by the Dudayev Battalion, a fighting force of
Islamic radicals consisting of Chechens, but also including fighters from the Caucasus and
some Ukrainians.
geedeesee -> Mike_UK 24 Mar 2015 16:24
"What the hell was the problem before the Russians invaded..."
If the Russians had invaded it would be a war, whether declarations had been made or not.
The Ukraine-Russian War. But there is no war between the two states. Kiev instead calls it an
"anti-terror operation". Objective observers like me would call it a civil war.
Steve Ennever 24 Mar 2015 15:48
That's American, Natalie - I'm Ukrainian now - Jaresko, right? Strange, even David
Cameron had some thoughts on this subject...
It appears supporting the overthrow of one democratically elected president because you
didn't like him & he was corrupt, apparently doesn't remove the corruption.
But other things should be raising the eyebrows of lenders right now, & Jaresko.
This is a country that has given its life to democracy......
The major loss of life has been in the Donbass, where its civilians have been killed in the
tens of thousands.They are the ones who can be said to have given their lives to democracy.
Once again "democracy" has been the trojan horse for corporate interests and the Wolfowitz
doctrine.
I hope that one day Ukraine does achieve a true democracy,but it wont be through the
efforts of the criminal Nuland-Pyatt crowd.
DIPSET 24 Mar 2015 15:24
C'mon Larry, it ain't a plea for "help".
It's pure, unprincipled, without a sliver of self pride and shame begging.
Beg for gas
Beg for coal
Beg for weapons
Beg for money
Beg for EU membership
Beg for money again
Beg for cookies
Beg for a football tournament to be cancelled
Beg for men to be sent to die in the East
After they stupidly get the real war and invasion they have been moaning for, watch them *beg
for mercy.
*Shout out to G-Unit for those that know ;-)
Watch them in the next couple of weeks beg Russia to not call in that 5 Billion loan repayment
that is due.
2015 is going to be one helluva year.....
brianboru1014 24 Mar 2015 14:58
Ukraine is protecting Europe from an aggressive neighbor she said with a straight face.
She says the country had 70 years of Communism, which it had, and 23 years of incomplete
reforms.
She should have said 23 years of thievery because the people of Ukraine didn't see too much
benefit. Twenty three years of neo liberalism. That's a very hard sell.
Ukraine's Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko urged the nation's bondholders, including Russia, to negotiate
a debt-restructuring agreement now or risk facing bigger losses.
"This is the best time for us to do this," Jaresko said in an interview in London on Tuesday.
"The situation is relatively peaceful now. They do not want to be in a situation where there is an
uncontrolled situation and we are forced to do a much worse deal for them."
The former Soviet republic has held talks with Franklin Templeton and its 14 other biggest U.K.
and U.S. creditors as it seeks new terms on about 29 bonds and enterprise loans, Jaresko said. Russia,
which as recently as last week said it wouldn't budge on being paid back a $3 billion bond in full
by the December deadline, won't be offered special terms, she said. Ukraine's $2.6 billion of bonds
due in July 2017 declined by 0.5 cent on Tuesday to 39.71 cents on the dollar.
Jaresko's comments show the stakes for Ukraine, whose $17.5 billion International Monetary Fund
loan package requires a restructuring deal with bondholders by the end of May. Relations between
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine have fallen apart since Russia's National Wealth Fund
bought the debt in December 2013, two months before President Viktor Yanukovych was toppled in a
bloody uprising in Kiev.
Equal Terms
Since the $3 billion security took the form of a tradeable bond, Russia should be treated on the
same terms all other holders, Jarekso said on Tuesday. Her comments are in contrast with those of
Russian politicians including Deputy Finance Minister Sergey Storchak, who said March 17 that the
nation isn't taking part the debt talks because it's not a private creditor.
"We need to have a process that is transparent, that has a certain amount of justice, that has
inter-creditor equity," Jaresko said. "That means no special terms for any single investor or creditor,
regardless of nationality."
Jaresko was part of a government delegation that held talks last week with Templeton, which owns
about $7 billion of Ukraine bonds. While Templeton won't accept a writedown, according to a person
familiar with the situation, analysts at Bank of America Corp. said this month current bond prices
are consistent with about a 20 percent cut in the principal and a 50 percent reduction in coupon
payments.
Before we answer that question, let's take a quick look at Ukraine's economy:
Population: 44.2 million
Population growth rate in 2013: -0.6% (lowest in Europe)
GDP (2013 official): US$ 175B (purchasing power parity of US$ 377B)
GDP per capita: US$ 7,400 (2nd lowest in Europe)
GDP growth rate (2014): -7.5%
GDP growth rate (2015E): -4.5%
Trade deficit (2014): -6.9%
Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia, is the worst-performing currency in the world with a 40% loss
against the USD in 2014 and another 40% drop reported so far this year. A drop of this magnitude
has been enough to spark hyperinflation in the country -
as high as 272%, according to one economist. Two weeks ago Ukraine
raised its benchmark interest rate by 10.5 points, up to 30%, in an effort to stop the bleeding.
The increased lending rate makes it all but certain that business activity will come to a screeching
halt.
An emergency $17.5B rescue package was negotiated with the IMF earlier this month. The country
is no stranger to the IMF's lending officers; they have accepted eight loans since 1991, and only
completed one program successfully. Even with an IMF bailout, the economy is in terrible shape.
Foreign currency reserves have dropped below $10 billion, which is less than the interest payments
that must be paid to service the Kiev government's existing debt.
The IMF's economic bailout is not the only aid package being discussed in Western policy circles.
Calls for increased military aid to the Ukrainian government are coming from the usual Washington
suspects: US secretary of defense Ashton Carter (who lobbied to bomb Iran in 2009), Senator Lindsey
Graham (together with John McCain, the neocon wing's "Odd Couple"), and, of course, Victoria Nuland
of the US State Department who has led the push for regime change in Kiev since the Maidan protests
last year.
Unsurprisingly, this contingent of (chicken)hawks is encountering resistance from their EU
partners, who are wary of a proxy war on the European continent. Everyone involved knows that,
if push comes to shove, Putin is the only player who is willing to send troops to fight in Ukraine.
There is not a single NATO signatory that is willing to do the same. This became apparent in 2008,
when the Ukrainian government applied to join NATO
and was rebuffed by both France and Germany, who cited concerns about "the balance of power
between Europe and Russia." Ukraine has always known that it cannot count on European assistance
in the event of a conflict with Russia, and in fact a 2008 poll found that over 40% of Ukrainians
expressed suspicion and distrust toward NATO.
... ... ...
One final note, on an update to my recent article on Greece. I was entertained to see that
the intrepid Ms. Nuland (as mentioned above)
decided to pay a visit to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in Athens this week. It seems
that the US has been watching Tsipras' ongoing difficulties with EU debt negotiations, and has
heard about his pending 8 April trip to Moscow where he almost certainly intends to explore alternatives
to further austerity as prescribed by Herr Schäuble of the German Finance Ministry. It appears
that Washington and Moscow may soon be climbing over each other to provide "aid packages" to the
Greeks.
US diplomat Victoria Nuland, on a well-deserved Greek holiday after
months of hard work in Kiev. Courtesy: The Guardian
The world continues to become more interesting every day. See you in two weeks!
The crisis in Ukraine's foreign trade continues to deepen.
A month ago the European Pravda published data of the state statistics on foreign trade statistics
for the year 2014. The obtained data demonstrate the decline of Ukrainian exports not only in
the CIS but also in Europe. Based on annual data growth of Ukrainian exports to the EU only 2.6%
experts have calculated that the fall in the fourth quarter amounted to about 22%.
Statistics January 2015 was to confirm or refute the assessment of the experts about the collapse
of Ukrainian exports to the EU. Actually the statistics are even worse!
In January, the state statistics service fixes the loss of Ukrainian exports to the EU
by 31% compared with January last year).
In other words, the current volume of Ukrainian exports to the EU - about $1 billion achieved
in the context of Autonomous trade preferences of the EU, accounted for about two thirds of the
volume of deliveries during the period when the political relations of Ukraine with the EU were
at the bottom.
The fall of the Ukrainian export to the CIS countries was even a big - 54.9% (in Russia
- 60.3%). After this, a more than twofold decrease the volume of exports in the CIS is only $479,6
million.
In General, Ukrainian exports in January fell by 31.2% to $2,98 billion.
"Data for January certainly bleak, but the rate of decline of about 30% for the first time
were recorded back in December of last year," says chief economist of IR Dragon Capital Elena
Belan.
According to experts, the reasons for this fall two: the impact of military conflict in the
East of the country, as well as the fall in world prices for metal.
As for the impact of military action on the economy, the effect of them was very noticeable.
The greatest rate of natural decline in exports were recorded in the Donbas.
By the end of 2014 export from the Donetsk region fell to 64.3 per cent, and in Lugansk - 96.6%!
Thus, opportunities for further decline in exports in the Donbas are practically exhausted.
It's also worth noting that the regional breakdown of export growth (in all regions) showed
the Western region. The distance from the ATO allowed them to take advantage. As a result, exports
from Chernivtsi region increased by 77%, Volyn - by 34.9%, and Ternopil 17%. However, at the same
time the fall was recorded in Zakarpattia (of-16,7%) and Lviv (-32,3%) regions.
In addition to them, a slight increase of exports recorded in Zaporizhzhya (4%), Kherson (3.3%)
and Nikolaev (0,4%) regions.
The falling demand for metal - on this article's exports in January fell by 32.2% - also more
linked to the political situation than world demand. "Of course, there are global problems, the
main of which - China undermines Ukrainian metallurgists not only in the middle East but also
in Europe. However, it is not more than 30% of the problem. The main problem is to shutting down
of the steel mills in the ATO region," says the analyst of Eavex Capital Ivan Dzvinka.
Expert provides data for comparison, by the end of 2014, a decline in production in the steel
mills that are outside the ATO was about 8-10%, and the "Kryvorizhstal" was the growth of production.
Despite the huge decrease of January exports, the threat for the balance of payments is still
in its infancy.
Hryvnia devaluation led to a significant decrease in import - 33.4%. As a result, the negative
balance of foreign trade in goods amounted to only $25.1 million
Moreover, the estimated Elena Belan, another wave of devaluation, which took place in February
and March, as well as entry into force: 25 February-additional duties on imports will lead to
further reduction of imports. "Most likely, we will soon see leveling the balance of foreign trade,"
she explained.
However, as shown by the January collapse of Ukrainian exports, even a new wave of devaluation
can't improve the situation.
The opportunity to influence exports through devaluation of the national currency have been
exhausted.
That is why experts do not expect a quick recovery of Ukrainian exports even in the face of
improved conditions in the global markets and long-acting Autonomous trade preferences of the
EU.
"For export growth needs a stable and predictable economic policy of the government and affordable
loans. Now none of this business is not expected," says Executive Director of the European business
Association Anna Derevyanko.
According to her, the government is now working to solve the current problems, and therefore,
no strategic plans to support exporters. "Moreover, these current challenges are often contrary
to the interests of exporters. For example, the increase of import duties on 5-10%. Such a step,
among other things, led to higher prices for Ukrainian products that was another blow to exports,"
says Derevyanko.
In the absence of the state money for concessional lending to exporters only possible support
can be informing business and its support from the embassies.
"We cannot say that such work is not conducted, but coverage remains low," says Anna Derevyanko.
Also a possible solution could be the more stringent criteria of work of the embassies. So
far, the effectiveness does not take into account neither the number of Ukrainian companies that
received support when entering new markets, nor in the volume of attracted investments to Ukraine.
"Of course, it is not a panacea, and these figures may not give an exhaustive assessment of the
work of the embassies. however, such reporting is still better than these omissions," sure, the
European business Association.
Ukrainian Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn
is putting on his travelling roadshow of "Beggar's Opera", demanding that EU help pay to fill
Ukrainian underground tanks with Russian gas.
"Reaching a new deal on gas deliveries soon after the current one expires [yalensis: at
the end of March] is important not only to Ukraine but also to the EU. The warmer summer months
are used to fill Ukraine's huge underground storage facilities, which help buffer supply shortages
during the winter and maintain pressure in the pipeline network to allow efficient gas transit
to Europe.
"Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission's vice president for energy who will mediate the
new round of gas talks, said on Thursday that going into the winter, Ukraine's storage facilities
need to hold some 20 billion cubic meters of gas and that purchases to refill then should start
in April.
"Demchyshyn says that 14-15 billion cubic meters should suffice.
"The commissioners are developing worst-case scenarios. They are putting all the cost on
us," Mr. Demchyshyn said. "We are ready to commit to [a] base case and pay for it. And [the
cost of] worst-case scenarios maybe should be shared." Such a scenario could include a prolonged
supply cut by Russia, a cold winter and a resurgence in industrial activity in Europe."
"Mr. Demchyshyn said Ukraine currently pays a 15% premium on Russian gas, compared with
supplies it receives from Slovakia and other EU countries. Filling its storage with that additional
5 billion cubic meters of largely Russian gas would cost Ukraine an extra $1.5 billion of cash
that would be expensive to raise amid a worsening economic crisis and the conflict in its east.
Instead, Mr. Demchyshyn said, European companies, which have much-lower capital costs, should
rent capacity in Ukraine's storage facilities. "They can fill up the storage with their funding,"
he said."
[yalensis: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS SLOVAKIAN GAS, cheap or otherwise – it's just reverse
flow from Russia to Slovakia to Ukraine – no?]
Lithuania said Saturday it had signed a trade agreement to buy liquified natural gas from the
United States in a move aimed at reducing the EU Baltic state's heavy dependence on Russian gas
deliveries.
Under the deal with Houston-based Chenier Energy company, the first LNG fuel is expected to
arrive in Lithuania as early as next year, state-owned company Litgas said in a statement.
"This agreement entered into with Cheniere ... will provide us access to the prolific US natural
gas market," Litgas General Manager Dominykas Tuckus said.
Lithuania's first floating LNG terminal started commercial activity in January, becoming the
first such facility to sever Moscow's grip on gas deliveries to the Baltic states.
The nation of three million will initially import 0.54 billion cubic meters of gas from Statoil
in 2015, covering about one-fifth of its demand.
The first US LNG export terminal is expected to starts its operations later this year.
The Baltic states' reliance on Russia for gas is a legacy of its five decades of Soviet rule,
which ended in 1991.
Members of the EU and NATO since 20014, Lithuania and fellow Baltic states Latvia and Estonia
are concerned about Russia's actions in Ukraine and fear that Moscow could attempt to destabilize
its Soviet-era Baltic backyard.
"LNG exports by the US may weaken the position of Russia which uses its energy resources as an
energy weapon to blackmail countries dependent on Russian gas," Lithuania's Energy Minister Rokas
Masiulis said this week.
KIEV, March 5, 2015 – Westinghouse Electric Company today announced that its VVER-1000
fuel had performed flawlessly over at least three fuel cycles following an annual inspection
of Westinghouse fuel assemblies at South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant Unit 3. The joint inspection
of six Westinghouse fuel assemblies by representatives from the power plant, SE AtomRemontService
(SE ARS) and Westinghouse took place between February 15 and March 1, 2015. The results were
verified and validated by the State Nuclear Inspectorate of Ukraine. Forty-two Westinghouse
fuel assemblies, delivered to the South Ukraine nuclear power station in November 2014, now
will be loaded into Unit 3 in the coming days.
"Following comprehensive inspections of all nuclear fuel at the South Ukraine Nuclear
Power Plant, it has been concluded by joint Energoatom and Westinghouse experts that the Westinghouse
fuel has performed exactly to specification and has not exhibited any flaws in its operation,
as expected," said Yves Brachet, Westinghouse president, Europe, Middle East and Africa. "This
inspection is one of several that confirm the safe and efficient use of Westinghouse fuel and
its utilization in additional plants in Ukraine and in other countries that utilize Russian-designed
nuclear power stations."….
####
I guess they learned something from the last disaster they were involved in…
This article appears as part of a special report, "What the Free Market Can't Do," in the Winter
2015 issue of The American Prospect magazine. Subscribe here.
The stubborn appeal of the libertarian idea persists, despite mountains of evidence that the
free market is neither efficient, nor fair, nor free from periodic catastrophe. In an Adam Smith
world, the interplay of supply and demand yields a price that signals producers what to make and
investors where to put their capital. The more that government interferes with this sublime discipline,
the more bureaucrats deflect the market from its true path.
But in the world where we actually live, markets do not produce the "right" price. There are
many small examples of this failure, but also three immense ones that should have discredited
the libertarian premise by now. Global climate change is the most momentous. The price of carbon-based
energy is "correct"-it reflects what consumers will pay and what producers can supply-if you leave
out the fact that carbon is destroying a livable planet. Markets are not competent to price this
problem. Only governments can do that. In formal economics, this anomaly is described by the bloodless
word "externality"-meaning costs (or benefits) external to the immediate transaction. Libertarian
economists treat externalities as minor exceptions.
The other great catastrophe of our time is the financial collapse. Supposedly self-regulating
markets could not discern that the securities created by financial engineers were toxic. Markets
were not competent to adjust prices accordingly. The details of the bonds were opaque; they were
designed to enrich middlemen; the securities were subject to investor herd-instincts; and their
prices were prone to crash once a wave of panic-selling hit. Only government could provide regulations
against fraudulent or deceptive financial products, as it did to good effect until the regulatory
process became corrupted beginning in the 1970s. Deregulation arguably created small efficiencies
by steering capital to suitable uses-but any such gains were obliterated many times over by the
more than $10 trillion of GDP lost in the 2008 crash.
A third grotesque case of market failure is the income distribution. In the period between
about 1935 and 1980, America became steadily more equal. This just happened to be the period of
our most sustained economic growth. In that era, more than two-thirds of all the income gains
were captured by the bottom 90 percent, and the bottom half actually gained income at a slightly
higher rate than the top half. By contrast, in the period between 1997 and 2012, the top 10 percent
captured more than 100 percent of all the income gains. The bottom 90 percent lost an average
of nearly $3,000 per household. The reason for this drastic disjuncture is that in the earlier
period, public policy anchored in a solid popular politics kept the market in check. Strong labor
institutions made sure working families captured their share of productivity gains. Regulations
limited monopolies. Government played a far more direct role in the economy via public investment,
which in turn stimulated innovation. The financial part of the economy was well controlled. All
of this meant more income for the middle and the bottom and less rapacity at the top.
Clearly, a more equal economy performed better than a more unequal one. Families with decent
incomes could recycle that purchasing power back into the economy. Well-regulated financial institutions
could do their job of supplying investment capital to the real economy rather than enriching their
own executives with speculative schemes-ones that left the rest of the society to take the loss
when the wise guys were long gone. In the case of labor, there was not a single, "accurate," market-determined
wage for each job, but a wide range of possible wages and social bargains that would attract competent
workers and steadily increase the economy's productivity.
The free market doesn't live up to its billing because of several contradictions between what
libertarians contend and the way the real world actually works.
The free market doesn't live up to its billing because of several contradictions between what
libertarians contend and the way the real world actually works. Fundamentally, the free-market
model assumes away inconvenient facts. Libertarians presume no disparities of information between
buyer and seller, no serious externalities, no public goods that markets can't properly price
(Joan Fitzgerald's piece in our special report in the Winter 2015 issue of The American Prospect
magazine discusses one-water), and above all no disparities of power. But in today's substantially
deregulated economy, bankers have far more knowledge and power than bank customers (witness the
subprime deception); corporations have far more power than employees; insurers have more power
than citizens seeking health insurance. Labor markets can't compensate for disparities of power.
The health insurance "markets" created by the Affordable Care Act can't fully address the deeper
problem of misplaced resources and excessive costs in our medical system.
The conditions of the idealized market model do describe ordinary retail markets, where there
are plenty of restaurants, supermarkets, dry cleaners, and hardware stores, and consumers are
competent to shop around for price and quality. They don't accurately characterize the markets
in health, education, labor, finance, or technological innovation, to name just five. (What is
efficient about a hedge -und mogul taking home $2 billion, or a life-saving pill that retails
for $5,000 a dose?)
To produce an economy that is more equitable as well as more efficient, government uses a variety
of tools. It regulates to counteract market failure. It taxes to provide revenues to pay for public
goods that markets under-provide at affordable prices-everything from education to health to research
and development. Sometimes government passes laws to sustain other elements of a social contract,
such as the laws protecting workers' rights to form unions and to collectively bargain.
Government can invent things that markets never would have imagined. Apple has created
wonders, but it has piggybacked on government investment in advanced semiconductors and the Internet.
America's biotech industry's success was reliant on massive government investment in the Human
Genome Project and other basic research. Later in the special report in the magazine's Winter
issue, Fred Block's piece describes the indispensable government role in innovation. Commercial
broadcasters were disinvesting in radio as a serious medium of news, public affairs, culture,
and humor, when along came public radio, partly underwritten by government and partly by listener-subscribers.
NPR demonstrated that ingenious and high-quality noncommercial programming could attract an audience
that for-profit companies did not know was there.
There is another, more fundamental point ignored by libertarians: The market itself is a creature
of government.
There is another, more fundamental point ignored by libertarians: The market itself is a creature
of government. As Karl Polanyi famously wrote in a seeming oxymoron, "laissez-faire was planned."
Markets could not exist without states defining the terms of property ownership and commerce,
creating money, enforcing contracts, protecting patents and trademarks, and providing basic public
institutions. A Robinson Crusoe world never existed. So the real issue is not whether government
"intrudes" on the market-the capitalist system is impossible without government. The practical
question is whose interests the state serves.
So the core libertarian claim that markets are efficient stands demolished by historical evidence.
However, libertarians make a second claim: Free markets are the sublime expression of human liberty.
This second contention gives libertarian ideology much of its persuasive power. In the resurrection
of free-market theory after its first burial in the wake of the Great Depression, a remnant of
libertarian economists led by Friedrich Hayek engaged in a technical duel with John Maynard Keynes
about whether markets were self-correcting after all. Hayek won few converts. But in the 1940s,
Hayek hit pay dirt with his argument that markets epitomized freedom. This claim was taken a step
further by Milton Friedman a generation later.
In the idealized libertarian world, individuals are "free to choose"-never mind that some are
born with far more resources with which to choose than others. In the Hayek-Friedman world, government,
except for its minimal role of keeping the peace and protecting property values, is the enemy
of freedom. Hayek went so far as to write a book in 1944, The Road to Serfdom, contending that
democratic forms of planning were destined to lead down the same road to totalitarianism that
ended with Stalin and Hitler. Hayek remained a revered figure to libertarians-he even won a Nobel
Prize-despite the fact that there is not a single case where democratic planning led to dictatorship,
but countless instances where market turbulence led displaced citizens to turn to anti-democratic
strongmen. Adding insult to injury, the Hayek-Friedman remedy for when markets don't work is:
We need even more market. We saw how well that worked in the financial collapse.
Beyond assuming away inherited disparities, the Hayek-Friedman equation of markets and freedom
leaves out the role of government in promoting affirmative liberties. A young person from a poor
family who does not need to incur crippling debt to attend university is a freer person. A low-income
mother who cannot afford to pay the doctor attains a new degree of freedom when she and her children
are covered by Medicaid. A worker who might be compelled to choose between his job and his physical
safety becomes freer if government health and safety regulations are enforced. The employee of
a big-box store who can take paid family leave when a child gets sick is freer than one whose
entire life is at the whim of the boss; likewise a worker with a union contract that provides
protection from arbitrary dismissal or theft of wages. An elderly person saved from destitution
by a government-organized Social Security pension has a lot more liberty than one bagging groceries
at age 80 to make ends meet, or one choosing between supper and filling a prescription. An aspiring
homeowner who doesn't need to spend countless hours making sure that the mortgage won't explode
is freer to spend leisure time on other activities if government is certifying which financial
products are sound and is prohibiting other kinds.
Clearly, there will never be enough charity, benign employer paternalism, or self-correction
on the part of markets to solve these problems.
I could go on, but you get the idea. These are not arcane examples, written in the algebraic
idiom of formal economics. They are common-sense experiences familiar to us all-and fruits of
government spending or regulation. Clearly, there will never be enough charity, benign employer
paternalism, or self-correction on the part of markets to solve these problems. Lately, as markets
have gained ground at the expense of social counterweights, more of us find ourselves at the mercy
of market forces, as played by bosses, insurers, and financial engineers.
5% from solar, and it's very intermittent. On cloudy days they have to ramp up the natural
gas plants to make up for the shortfall. The reality is that fossil fuels aren't going anywhere
anytime soon. Not if we want to maintain our modern industrial civilization. Which we won't
be able to anyway, of course, but that isn't a doomsday scenario TPTB want to even consider.
Especially if we rule out nuclear power, which at this point I say we should. It's too damn
dangerous, particularly if all the rumors and claims I hear about the corruption of the regulators
and the degree of decades spanning coverups about just how often (and how badly) plants have
gone, well, 'wrong', are true.
It's becoming increasingly clear just how screwed we already are, much less how much more
in the hole we get with every passing day.
Jim McKay, March 4, 2015 at 10:07 am
Interesting article. The world has changed dramatically in last several decades. US (and
others') notions of sanctions' effectiveness just don't work: too many "emerged" nations providing
outlets sanctions can't prevent. US efforts as described are, AFAIC… just a colossal waste
of time.
One quibble (not the point of article, but…):
The dirty truth is that Germany gets about half of its electricity from coal, with the other
half coming from natural gas and nuclear.
That totals 100%. There is no question Germany has dramatically increased energy production
from renewables. Whatever the % of their total (articles here on NC in recent months discussing
this) renewable production, this (quoted) statement says implicitly it's -0-.
Something's wrong with those numbers (eg. 100% from coal/NG/nuke).
OpenThePodBayDoorsHAL, March 4, 2015 at 1:20 pm
I haven't heard any discussion about the sanctions on Cuba. They succeeded in keeping that
nation in poverty, that's for sure. But they're still Communist, and like China and Vietnam
now they will just be trading partners like everybody else that happen to be Communist. So
what exactly did the sanctions accomplish again?
susan the other, March 4, 2015 at 3:29 pm
The Cold War gave the US (us) time to begin to understand reality. But for embarrassment,
we would not still be broadcasting nonsense.
Truth bottom line: The entire world (perhaps with the sole exception of some US citizens
who are stupefied) understands global overpopulation and global warming; The World understands
ecological devastation; it understands massive extinctions and the implications for us "humans";
and it understands the trade-off: oil/groaf v. settle down, go slow for the next century. Become
one with nature.
Praedor, March 4, 2015 at 3:43 pm
They served a purely domestic political purpose: the sanctions allowed politicians to display
their anti-communist bonafides as if that even matters anymore. They also allowed the impotent
few who are still smarting of the gall of the peasants of Cuba rising up to claim their country
for themselves rather than the 1% of the US to feel like they were doing something. Same applies
in slightly altered form to Iranian sanctions. Allows a few impotents to feel like they are
doing something to get back at those damn Iranian little people who had to gall to kick out
OUR dictator and claim their resources for themselves. Who do they think they are?
knowbuddhau, March 4, 2015 at 10:17 am
Topf calls that a "recap?" How 'bout we start with US funding of straight up Nazis to force
the overthrow of a democratically-elected government? Harold Pinter's 2005 points still apply:
Hundreds of thousands of deaths took place throughout these countries. Did they take place?
And are they in all cases attributable to US foreign policy? The answer is yes they did take
place and they are attributable to American foreign policy. But you wouldn't know it.
It never happened. Nothing ever happened. Even while it was happening it wasn't happening.
It didn't matter. It was of no interest. The crimes of the United States have been systematic,
constant, vicious, remorseless, but very few people have actually talked about them. You have
to hand it to America. It has exercised a quite clinical manipulation of power worldwide while
masquerading as a force for universal good. It's a brilliant, even witty, highly successful
act of hypnosis.
I put to you that the United States is without doubt the greatest show on the road. Brutal,
indifferent, scornful and ruthless it may be but it is also very clever. As a salesman it is
out on its own and its most saleable commodity is self love. It's a winner. Listen to all American
presidents on television say the words, 'the American people', as in the sentence, 'I say to
the American people it is time to pray and to defend the rights of the American people and
I ask the American people to trust their president in the action he is about to take on behalf
of the American people.'
It's a scintillating stratagem. Language is actually employed to keep thought at bay. The
words 'the American people' provide a truly voluptuous cushion of reassurance. You don't need
to think. Just lie back on the cushion. The cushion may be suffocating your intelligence and
your critical faculties but it's very comfortable. This does not apply of course to the 40
million people living below the poverty line and the 2 million men and women imprisoned in
the vast gulag of prisons, which extends across the US.
The United States no longer bothers about low intensity conflict. It no longer sees any
point in being reticent or even devious. It puts its cards on the table without fear or favour.
It quite simply doesn't give a damn about the United Nations, international law or critical
dissent, which it regards as impotent and irrelevant. It also has its own bleating little lamb
tagging behind it on a lead, the pathetic and supine Great Britain. (http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/literature/laureates/2005/pinter-lecture-e.html.)
Praedor, March 4, 2015 at 3:52 pm
I'm glad you hit on that point as I was feeling an urge to. Russian aggression in Ukraine?
Really? RUSSIAN? The actions of Russia in Ukraine are IDENTICAL to those of the US if Russia
were to foment a coup in Mexico and install a government of its choosing there…followed by
military basing agreements. Think the US would just sit back and allow it?
Shouldn't go screwing around in other people's territories if you can't handle the obvious
results. The US has a LONG history of overthrowing democratically elected governments when
those governments don't stay on script aftwards and refuse to privatize everything, outsource
everything, sell everything on the open market. Gods forfend if that new democratic government
wants to reclaim its own natural resources from foreign control and benefit from the development
and sale of same themselves.
THAT is the fastest way to see a coup or invasion by the West.
As a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine pits Russia against its Cold War-era foes, the
conflict is also playing out in the trading rooms of Wall Street banks and hedge funds. Investors
trying to anticipate the next move of rebels backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin are also
weighing the ability of the Kiev government's allies to counter the Kremlin's economic maneuvers
as Ukraine seeks to restructure its $16 billion of foreign-currency debt.
Ukraine has $5.4 billion in Eurobond principal and interest payments due this year and $6.4
billion in foreign reserves, a record low and down 64 percent from a year earlier.
The nation's $2.6 billion of benchmark notes maturing in July 2017 dropped to a record 41.3
cents on the dollar this week from almost 57 cents on Feb. 12, when the IMF loan was announced,
and above par in July. The bond traded at 41.80 cents on Wednesday. The hryvnia weakened to a
record 33.5 per dollar on Feb. 24 from 9.725 a year ago.
"We see increased risk of substantial haircuts" reducing the bonds' coupons or their face value,
Vadim Khramov, a London-based economist at Bank of America, said in an e-mailed report on Tuesday.
Even such a restructuring may not be enough "if the hryvnia's devaluation is not managed, leaving
debt dynamics unsustainable," he said.
The plunge prompted the central bank to tighten capital controls twice this week, with the second
spate of measures effectively freezing the country's trade on Wednesday.
With much of Ukraine's industrial base ravaged by the fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,
gross domestic product shrank as much as 7.5 percent last year, the Washington-based IMF estimates.
The economy will probably contract 5.5 percent in 2015, Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said
Feb. 16. GDP fell 15.2 percent in the fourth quarter from the same period of 2013, the most in
five years.
While policy makers in Kiev share some of the blame, Ukraine's allies have also been too slow
to react to Putin's moves, according to Otilia Dhand, an analyst at political-risk advisory Teneo
Intelligence in Brussels. The process has suffered delays because of the need to coordinate policy
between the U.S. and Europe as well as gaining consensus within the 28 EU nations, she said.
"The speed of making and implementing decisions is much faster on the Russian side and that
obviously puts Russia at an advantage," she said by phone Feb. 24. "The pain can be inflicted
faster than the remedy can be administered."
...
Getting the lender's consent will become more challenging if pro-Russia rebels continue their
advance and seize territory such as the strategic port city of Mariupol, one of the people said.
A second person said that while a worsening conflict would complicate approval, IMF country representatives
are likely to maintain their support unless an open conflict with Russia breaks out affecting
the majority of Ukraine. Both people asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential.
While the holders of Ukraine's foreign-currency debt lost 25 percent this year, the most among
58 nations in Bloomberg's USD Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Index, investors don't expect the
country to be abandoned by its financial backers.
...
The hryvnia's free-fall is adding to the financial distress by driving up prices of imports, including
oil and gas, as well as boosting the cost of repaying foreign bonds.
The government seeks to negotiate a debt-reorganization agreement with bondholders by June.
A deal may be delayed by continued fighting with separatists and Russia's opposition to restructuring,
Andrew Matheny, a Moscow-based economist at Goldman, said in a research note last week.
Trying to stem the outflow of capital, the central bank restricted importers' purchases of
foreign currencies on Feb. 23. and two days later banned commercial lenders from buying currencies
for their clients, freezing the hryvnia market.
"The Ukrainian economy is in serious liquidity crisis with its external financing needs rising,"
Lilit Gevorgyan, senior analyst at IHS Global Insight Inc. research company in London, said by
e-mail on Monday. "Even with the help of donors, Ukraine's currency can only start stabilizing
when the armed conflict freezes."
...Putin's warning raised new troubles for Ukraine's economy, which is on the verge of collapse.
Among the problems: dangerously low reserves of foreign currency needed to pay for the critical
natural gas supplies.
Putin also said that any cutoff could also hit Europe, raising the prospect that the continent
could again face shortages with warmer weather still months away.
Ukraine is a vital throughway for Russian gas deliveries to Western Europe. Russia has in the past
cut off gas to nations with which it was having geopolitical disputes, although it has always
denied using energy as a weapon.
The tough line by Russia underscores its growing tensions with the West during the nearly 11-month
uprising in eastern Ukraine by pro-Moscow rebels.
Ukraine's Western-backed government and its allies claim Russia has sent troops and weapons to
aid the separatists in Europe's bloodiest conflict since the Balkan wars of the 1990s.
Russia strongly denies the charges but has been a key political voice for the rebels - with
significant influence over their adherence to a cease-fire pact reached earlier this month.
"We hope that things won't get as far as these extreme measures and that the gas supply won't be
interrupted," Putin said Wednesday. "But this doesn't depend on us alone. It depends on the
financial discipline of our Ukrainian partners."
"Naturally this might create a certain threat for gas transit to Europe," he added.
The energy dispute stems in part from gas supplies to territories of eastern Ukraine held by
pro-Russian rebels.
Rebel leaders say that they have been cut off by Kiev, although Ukrainian government authorities
deny it. Russia, in turn, has started to deliver energy directly to the breakaway territories, and
it is charging Ukraine for the service.
The cutoff of gas to eastern Ukraine, Putin said, "smells of genocide" given the bleak
conditions there.
Russia says that Ukraine has paid for only three to four more days of delivery.
The new tussling over gas came on the first day in several weeks in which no Ukrainian soldiers
were killed on the front lines, a military spokesman said. Rebel leaders also said that the
conflict had largely quieted.
Both sides agreed to a cease-fire starting Feb. 15, but in the days that followed, fighting grew
fiercer near the crucial Ukrainian-held railway hub of Debaltseve. Kiev surrendered the town last
week in a chaotic retreat.
Nearly 5,800 people have died in the fighting, according to U.N. estimates, and more than 1 million
people have been displaced from their homes.
As the violence has calmed, Ukraine's economic problems have worsened.
Ukraine's currency has been shedding value against the dollar, and policymakers in recent days have
imposed strict limits on foreign currency transactions in the hopes of stanching the losses. A
weakened currency makes everything from energy to weapons to food more expensive for the Ukrainian
government and its citizens.
The currency has lost more than 40 percent of its value this month alone.
Ukrainian policymakers say they need up to $40 billion in assistance. And although Western
nations have promised aid, it has been slow in coming, a stark signal to Ukraine that it may be
largely on its own against its far more powerful neighbor.
Ukrainian Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said Wednesday that the heads of the International
Monetary Fund would meet March 11 to decide whether to approve new loans to the troubled country.
But that suggests Ukraine will be left to scrape by until then, and possibly longer.
Russia has sought to exploit splits in the Western response to the conflict, and on Wednesday Putin
met in Moscow with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades to sign cooperation agreements that again
highlighted European disunity.
Cyprus, an European Union member, has long been a Russian banking haven, and it took Russian
financial support during its 2013 financial crisis. Anastasiades has opposed further E.U. sanctions
against Russia even as others in Europe are raising the prospect of more.
The Russian and Cypriot foreign ministers on Wednesday signed an agreement to allow Russian naval
ships to dock at Cypriot ports. The deal was a stark sign of the differences of opinion in Europe
about how to handle Russia, since other Western nations have boycotted any military cooperation
with Russia
... ... ...
Michael Birnbaum is The Post's Moscow bureau chief. He previously served as the Berlin
correspondent and an education reporter.
Neocon cause is lost cause. No amount of propaganda can change this fact. This pressitute sings Anglo-American official tune with a little bit too much zeal...
Even for Guardian pressitute... From
comments: "A military empire (US + EU + NATO) with an hegemonic agenda which conquers territories
either peacefully (the 28 EU countries) or violently when there is resistance by destabilization leading
to war (Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria, Mali, Central Africa, Palestine and now Ukraine) or overthrow elected
governments (Ukraine, Latin America), or both in total disregard of international law. "
It's easy to understand why the proponents of an EU energy union would use slightly grandiose language
to sell their ideas. They have cast this plan as the "most ambitious European energy project since
the Coal and Steel Community"
of the 1950s. After all, energy solidarity is what Europe was all about at the start. Having France
and Germany share their coal and steel was seen, in the words of Robert Schuman, one of the founders
of the European project, as the best way to "make war not only unthinkable but materially impossible".
Peace and prosperity were to flow from regional integration.
Last year, war broke out in the country (Ukraine) through which
most of Russia's
energy exports transit on their way to many of our homes. A key feature of Putin's Ukraine strategy
has been to make sure this country of transit would never quite escape Moscow's domination – and that
Gazprom would never lose the possibility of directly controlling Ukraine's gas pipelines to Europe.
The Brussels commission is right to push for a new union.
Energy should be, along
with freedom of movement for people, goods and services, a key dimension of the EU. It would help in
dealing with Russia's behaviour as well as in tackling climate change. It is of huge strategic importance.
Yet it has not happened – so far – because it is so difficult to build politically, and it will be
expensive.
Energy is run nationally – not at EU level – at present. Key countries, especially the UK, France
and Germany, have their own views on how energy policy should be run, and they are all different. The
UK has a deregulated market, many private players, and no dependency on Gazprom. France is highly centralised,
with a handful of , state-controlled big players and 75% of electricity generated by nuclear power
(which is anathema to the Germans). Germany dislikes nuclear energy and wants to get rid of it, preferring
to burn coal if they run out of gas or renewables. And they have had historically good relations with
Gazprom. Poland burns a lot
of coal (it prefers that to Russian gas), but Poles also want to look for shale gas. They don't worry
that much about greenhouse gases. The list goes on.
There is a disorderly patchwork of energy policies across Europe. But questions that have been important
for years need to be re-addressed. It is too late to settle scores over who wrecked Europe's previous
chances of setting up a common energy policy. But Germany does have a special responsibility here.
Its large and powerful energy companies, E.ON and RWE, were the first in the early 2000s to carve out
long-term contracts with Gazprom without much consultation with European partners. Later, Germany unilaterally
signed up to Russia's North Stream pipeline which the Baltic states and Poland could only perceive
as an attempt to pressure them geopolitically.
The new EU plan doesn't aim to dismantle such realities but is pragmatic enough to try to deal with
some of Europe's obvious weaknesses. Because energy has been mostly a domestic issue there are very
few, interconnecting pipelines and grids. The plan is to build more. This would allow compensation
for energy cut offs – such as the ones that
Russia created in 2006 and 2009,
causing thousands of eastern European homes to be left without heating for weeks.
Another idea is to diversify energy supplies by working on a southern gas corridor linking Europe
to Turkey and Central Asia, or by setting up liquified natural gas hubs in northern Europe that could
act as back-up in case of another gas crisis with Russia.
The complexities are numerous. Some energy business insiders point out that negotiating with a Central
Asian country such as Turkmenistan is like landing on another planet. One told me about a meeting with
30 Turkmen government officials sitting immobile behind long tables in the Hall of the Peoples of Turkmenistan's
capital, who didn't say a word but just stared. Turkmenistan is a big gas producer whose operatives
have been known to sell the same quantity of gas several times over to various buyers (Russians, Chinese,
etc).
How am I an obvious Putinbot because I'm critical of neo cons and journalists who trot out one
article after another on the same themes? Follow what this smiley faced right winger writes and you'll
see.
These journalists should be criticised and that is the purpose of free speech and posting on this
site.
Just because you disagree with my posts doesn't make me a Putin bot.
My family connections are with Ukraine - not Russia.
"I can't blame you for demanding Putin that pays you in a hard currency! Thanks to him, a rouble
isn't worth using as toilet-paper, now.
A user name 'Irishmand' who only comments on Russian issues and always with a pro-Kremlin view - you
know that Astroturf always looks fake, right?"
1. I am in Canada. Hence, Canadian Dollars.
2. Read my profile. It explains a lot.
3. Yes, I love Russia and I like Putin. What is wrong with it? I see the western media lies. Your
media became a shame of this "free democratic" society.
I also think the US is desperately trying to 'take out' sources of energy not under their control:
for instance Russia and Venezuela.
We don't have sanctions on Russia because of trouble with Russia, we have trouble with Russia in
order to have sanctions. Who do the sanctions hurt? Russia and the EU. Who do sanctions help and not
hurt? The US. Cui Bono.
I see Joem, talking to yourself, is that because no-one else will listen.
Britain should pay for Ukraine's gas by imposing VAT on newspapers. It seems unfair that Naftogaz
should have to pay for gas when it is a natural resource. Britain gets gas free from Qatar shipped
in charity tankers so people in Britain do not have energy costs, it is only fair that the EU guarantee
free gas EU-wide and that energy be a free good in Greece as well as Britain.
I've attending many Holodomor commemorations, but why I stopped going was that many other Ukrainians
did not like hearing that millions of other Soviet citizens from across the Union were also starved
and sent to Siberia. At this time a few million Russians also starved. With a Ukrainian family I agree
the Ukrainians were affected the most, but you should recognise the millions of other Soviets including
Russian people who also starved. The problem is that acknowledging Stalin's plans were not just against
Ukraine weakens some of the propaganda that has kept into Holodomor.
Another point - not sure how this is relevant to greed and corruption in Ukraine by the Oligarchs,
stealing Russian gas and not paying bills?
What do YOU know about Chechnya, my little far right ultra-nationalist buddy?
Also, why do you pretend to be Irish?
I was born in Russia lived there until 2004. I lived in Moscow when Chechens were blowing up residential
buildings, buses and subway stations there. I lived in Moscow when Nordost happened. My farther was
a high rank police officer, I also worked in the force myself. I worked in the office in Moscow and
when Chechens didn't like something in the contract two Mercedeses full of Chechens with AK's came
to the office. Chechen criminal group is one of the strongest in Moscow.
I know people who went to that war. It was a war, yes. It was horrible, yes. This war was going on
for 300 years, with more or less intensity.
Why does this neo con reporter not raise any questions about our Saudi oil friends and their
support for Islamic extremism not to mention involvement in 9/11?
It is a pity is that the US State Department will give her another briefing this week and then
we will receive another of her anti Russian sermons.
Any bets on her next topic?
Perhaps a critique of the EU for its diplomatic focus on East Ukraine rather than taking a hardline
arming Kiev to the hilt, even sending in NATO troops.
Maybe her briefing by the State Department is still to blacken, demonise and soften up the public
about everything Russia being awful and a threat.
Also, classy display of chauvinistic nationalism just to prove how "not a fascist" you are.
Heads up, your lot have shot Nemtsov, in a typically cowardly dick move.
1. I don't anything chauvinistic nationalism in what I said
2. There is a principal in Russia: when you speak about a dead person you either say goods things
or nothing. I don't think Putin decided to eliminate Nemtsov, he was not a threat to him. It might
have been a business issue.
It is a geographic fact that Russia EU/Europe a neighbours but you are totally deluded if you believe
EU wants to be partners with a Russia that throws its military power about, bullies and threatens,
annexes parts of a neighbouring country. Can't you see what damage Russia has done to itself bringing
war and distruction to Ukraine? EU wants to co-operate as equal partners, not being bossed about,
lied and dictated to.
You put too much blame on Russia. Turn around and look at US/EU who installed a fascist regime
in Kiev.
Russia also wants to deal with the partners it can trust. But after what happened in Kiev, who
will trust US/EU, only a madman. US/EU clearly demonstrated that the only way they deal with anybody
is everybody has to accept US/EU's point of view, otherwise he is hitler, fascist and dictator. US/EU
is also ready to lie through thier teeth to get what they want. Is it a democracy?
And he doesn't appear to have any links with Ukraine so my guess is he is working in some paid
capacity for one of the US agencies that undertake this soft propaganda role ( there are many so it
is not obvious which one it might be).
Putin can't afford to cut the gas off. Russia is completely reliant on gas exports. LNG shipping
cannot replace pipelines efficiently. Any Russian moves to decrease reliance on supplying Europe dovetail
roughly with how long Europe would take to be weaned off Russian gas.
1. Russia can't afford not to supply gas.
2. Europe cannot afford not to buy gas.
3. US wants to sell shale gas in Europe.
4. Hence, Maidan... US problem solved
It would take Europe 3-5 years to find an alternative for Russian gas. It will allow Russia to
build pipes and LNG terminals to re-direct gas flow to Asia. Everybody is happy.
I'm in the same boat as you Maureen. I voted for Obama twice but this past year I had my eyes opened.
I never thought I would see what I have seen on video in regards to Ukraine.....and I never thought
I'd see the US back murderous neo-Nazi fascists. It is has been a truly horrifying, eye opening year.
This operation has been underway for decades. It's probably been in the planning stage ever since
Western Europe made the gas deal with Russia in the beginning. Carter and Reagan both didn't like
it back then.
Russia has lost the West as a market at a time when there is a glut of oil. It is now set to
become China's cut-price gas station. I understand the deal with China was at such a low price that
Russia will actually lose money on the deal. Another triumph for Putin's foreign policy. China will
be a much worse master for Russia than the West would have been.
1. Have you seen the contract between Russia and China.
2. Europe partially lost Russian market. Few people in sane mind will trade with you and trust you
after what US/EU did.
New Ukraine, deserves the criticism. They are a failed fascist state (that is economically
imploding due to mismangement and corruption) that has spent the last year bombing it's own citizens
and killing over 10,000 of those citizens. Don't embarrass yourself.
all the pipes have the option to flow from other directions.
1. What direction?
2. How much the gas flown from another direction costs?
3. If Russia is so bad, you should stop dealing with Russia completely. Close your borders to Russians
and break all the existing ties.
And the US Congress votes to give Obama another $500 million tax payer dollars to arm and train
those "moderate rebels" he's been arming and raining since the beginning of the phony "civil war"
in Syria.
"You miss the point. The EU is not unwilling to buy oil from Russia because it is a fascist dictatorship,
but because it is an unreliable supplier. Other suppliers do not threaten to cut off supplies to further
foreign policy aims."
1. Please provide the examples of Russia being "fascist dictatorship"
2. Please provide examples of Russia being "an unreliable supplier".
No they didn't. They had and have corruption, civil wars and genocide, but it is irrelevant, because
their governments are loyal to US/EU. So, they are goods guys.
He will not be in power next year. there is a general feeling that he will not win elections. THus
he is not a dictator.
You are rrght, he is not, he is a brainless puppet. The puppeteers are not visible. In one year
they will install another puppet. It is what's called "illusion of democracy". You an elect a president,
but he or she is of no importance and in reality don't make any decisions.
"What, you fascists? I'm not surprised."
Another snappy answer.
We Russians, who standing united with other nations of USSR stopped german fascists and their ukrainian
friends Bandera and Shukhevich. The Germans have learnt their lesson, but ukranians have not. Now
ukranians fascists are back for another lesson, which is being taught to them as we speak.
1. Exactly, this is what I was talking about: "Kievan Rus' begins with the rule (882–912) of Prince
Oleg, who extended his control from Novgorod south along the Dnieper river valley..."
2. I would be stupid to argue that there is full blown democracy in Russia. However, Inet is not
filtered, there are some opposition newspapers, TV channels and radio stations. You can also install
a satellite dish and watch whatever you want. The only thing they will come on you very hard and quickly
for is if you start calling for the change of government by force. But nobody in Russia will support
this topic seeing what happened to Ukraine after Maidan. Nobody wants Maidan in Russia.
Also the meaning of the gay regulation law was twisted in the western media. The only thing it
prohibits is promotion of gay values in public, which, I am sorry, I support.
Wow, snappy answer. You have no idea about manners, do you? Well, it is typical. It is how I see
people of your kind.
1) You first, twinkle.
If it is my choice, then I say there is no funding and arming.
2) Russian fascists. In Ukraine. Lots of them. Hard to miss. One was Prime Minsister of the
DPR before Zakharchenko, who's attitude towards Jews suggests he is also a fascist, despite not being
Russian.
Again, no proof, empty words. No value.
3) You're right, Russia is clearly not financing the FN and other fascist parties. They must just
all support Putin because they see in him a man after their own heart.
We love Putin. He finally slapped on the face people like you. You are pissed off, of course, but
if you keep messing around, he will slap you more.
Gil Matos-Sequí -> psygone 27 Feb 2015 09:21
It is too early to say what the results of the suit will be. I think the suit has as much if not
more to influence the power of the EU over it's constituent members in negotiating gas prices and
contracts. Russia does not stand to loose much in negotiating one price for a huge block as opposed
to smaller contracts. This will affect the price of course but it will most likely mean that smaller
countries end up paying significantly more than they are paying. As far as the accusations about over
pricing by Gazprom, it is ridiculous. The price of Gas is tied to the price of oil and each contract
devises a formula relative to the specifics of the deal. Gazprom already envisages itself selling
gas to Europe from gas hub via Turkey and Turkey already envisages itself a the major gas hub and
transit point for Europe, wether it be gas from Russia, or Azerbaijan, or Turkmenistan, or wherever.
This lawsuit will have very limited bearing on geopolitics or real-politik over which the EU frankly
has little influence.
RVictor -> caliento 27 Feb 2015 09:18
former Chancellor Schroeder
It is due to Schroeder Germany has now uninterpretable gas supply through the Nord Stream.
RVictor -> elti97 27 Feb 2015 09:16
Solar energy, for example, already accounts for 6% of German electricity
Wow! 6%! Amazing! Especially in winter time on north parts of Germany - solar energy will for sure
cover heating needs!
AtMyAge 27 Feb 2015 09:11
A key feature of Putin's Ukraine strategy has been to make sure this country of transit would never
quite escape Moscow's domination – and that Gazprom would never lose the possibility of directly controlling
Ukraine's gas pipelines to Europe.
OH come on! This is a key feature of the EU's policy - to force Russia to transit gas across Ukraine
in order to force Russia to supply Ukraine at below market rates or face losing the EU market.
Russia has been doing EVERYTHING possible to bypass Ukraine and supply Europe by other routes -
but the EU keeps blocking it. Russia fires up the south stream pipeline project and Brussels bullies
Bulgaria to stop work on, so Russia announces an alternative route via Turkey, but again the EU refuses
to commit to making the connections.
In short, the EU is using energy policy to attempt to bully Russia - not the other way around.
Asking to be paid for supplying gas is NOT bullying nor using energy as a weapon. Its called business.
When you go to work, you expect to be paid at the end of the week/month the salary that you were promised
not insulted and accused of bullying when the money you are owed is not paid and you are reluctant
to continue to work for nothing...
Simon311 -> psygone 27 Feb 2015 08:58
"It's strategically important to see Gazprom lose its market share in the world's richest and
largest trading bloc."
Is it? Does it make strategic sense to mix economics for a recovering economy with power politics?
Does it make strategic sense to provoke a nuclear power?
Tikibarwarrior -> Jeremn 27 Feb 2015 08:55
The EU is in the process of falling apart due to the misguided policies implemented in Ukraine.
This article is past tense. It may have made sense previously but the Greeks are on the edge of leaving
due to the huge austerity/ECB rip offs. What people need to understand is that Russia isn't the enemy
of the European people. The real problem in Europe is the increasing poverty and growth of right wing
extremism/neo-nazism due to crippling austerity policies conducted by the ECB/IMF/EU vassal leaders.
The goal for the 1% has been to keep the publics eye on the left hand while it moves the money into
their right hands.
Like the US bailout of 2007, the take a massive chunk of change from 'we the people', they then
distribute that money to the banks and the 1%ers who run those banks. They loan it out and put countries
into debt slavery. I recommend watching the film "The International" (with Clive Barker) to fully
understand how this is done. It is a form of money laundering. The money doesn't trickle down after
they create a bailout like the recent EU 500 billion euro self award. The debt is passed on to the
public who pay it back ten fold over time. The countries, like Greece, are then trapped and held in
debt slavery to the banker 1%. The EU vassals continue the cycle and send in their resource/utility
extractors to buy up the assets of the countries, such as what is now going on in Ukraine.
The US destabilized it, then the EU/IMF give it massive loans it can't pay back, then the big
corps/hedge funds come in and buy up all the assets/utilities/farming and fracking land. After the
rape is complete the people are stuck in poverty, such as Greece is.
Look at Spain. Look at the UK these days. Germany has 12% of the population in poverty, but you
will never hear this from the compliant, vassal media whose job it is to keep the people in the dark
and never address the real root cause of the problem, the greedy 1% who rule us all.
For the EU, Russia is the least of your worries. Energy independence isn't the problem, sovereign
nations and human independence is. The EU needs to break apart so people can be free again.
Simon311 -> psygone 27 Feb 2015 08:55
What a ridiculous remark. The last thing the EU needs is a trade war and a hostile stand off with
Russia,
SHappens -> Havingalavrov 27 Feb 2015 08:40
There is a quiz about Russia on this site you should take.
I suppose we could say pretty much the same about the EU:
A single party (bipartisanship hides identical policies) that monopolizes power and denies opponents
access to the power.
Leadership either unelected or elected in "rigged" elections, all deeply discredited in the eyes
of people who no longer have any confidence in them as they are almost all at worst crooks or puppets,
and, at best, incompetent and uneducated technocrats who have lost touch with reality.
Elected leaders (parliamentarians), co-opted (EU Commission) appointed (senior) and selected (CAC
40) all from the same "aristocracy" which repeats itself and that has nothing to envy to the one that
had generated the Party in the USSR.
So unpopular leaders that they can not meet the true population. All press conferences and all
"errands" of the rulers out of their bunkered palaces are all staged with "extras and accessories"
mounted with the complicity of subsidized state media.
Paralysis of 'governance', incapable of reforming itself as it is mired in its heaviness, its
incompetence, corruption, immorality and privileges apparently attempting to binge themselves as much
as possible before everything collapses.
More separation of powers, but almost complete collusion between the executive, legislative, judicial,
media, financial and thus criminalization and corruption powers, all accompanied by impunity.
A military empire (US + EU + NATO) with an hegemonic agenda which conquers territories either
peacefully (the 28 EU countries) or violently when there is resistance by destabilization leading
to war (Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria, Mali, Central Africa, Palestine and now Ukraine) or overthrow elected
governments (Ukraine, Latin America), or both in total disregard of international law.
Media propaganda lying as they breathe and producing "evidence" sometimes even gross, to deceive
and manipulate the public. With less and less success, which promises the collapse of the system.
The demonization of past victims (Serbs, Libyans, Afghans, Iraqis, etc.), present (Syrians, Ukrainians
Autonomist, Palestinians, etc.) and desired (Russians).
Laws that dictate the story (Law memorial) with imprisonment to those who question the "official
version." Liberal laws and laws drafts to prohibit meetings or shows that displease the "device" as
well as control the Internet.
The witch hunt of dissidents, even the most peaceful, who are sometimes forced to flee Russia for
having told the truth; this country has in fact become a heaven for dissidents of our system as we
welcome former dissidents of the USSR.
Hatred of religion: slander and defamation attacks of all kinds against two religions in particular,
Catholic and Muslim, seen as hotbeds of resistance to the proposed overhaul of liberal-libertarian
society pursued by the regime.
The militarization of riot police used to repress peaceful demonstrations and dissenting, discredit
the protesters by provocation under false flags.
The attack by the army of its own people (Ukraine for example).
Laxity towards real criminals protected by a corrupt "elite" and towards troublemakers.
Introduction of a "police of thought" (the equivalent of Soviet political commissioners) to give
the power and the means to various groups and pro-system associations to denounce, discredit, sue
and even physically attack dissidents.
Mass spying (NSA-Stasi) and encouraging denunciation.
And unlike the USSR this time, many things were completely free (health, culture, education, etc.)
and where there was no unemployment, destruction of social rights and workers' rights in Europe.
Patrick Armstrong says: May 27, 2021 at 5:13 pm
© Gazprom / Nord Stream 2 45 Follow RT on 
December 8, 2019 © Photo: Wikimedia For all of 2019
December has been a magnet. A number of major geopolitical issues come to head this month and
many of them have everything to do with energy. This is the month that Russian gas giant
Gazprom was due to finish production on three major pipeline projects – Nordstream 2,
Turkstream and Power of Siberia.
Ukraine is
overpaying for European gas & wants Russia to foot the bill
