Generally Isral serves are aproxy for Washinton in syria conflict and the USA goal are to partition Syria into several
zones such as Kurdish and Sunni zones to compensate for Iraq falling under Iran influence after Bush administration Iraq
invasion. UE is impotant and the only contrvaling force here proved to be Russia.
The Israeli cabinet held its weekly meeting on April 27, 2016 in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, the first such occasion since
the Golan was occupied 49 years ago. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opened the meeting by saying that the Golan Heights would
remain Israel’s “forever” and that Israel would not withdraw under any circumstances. What made the Israeli government hold this provocative
meeting in the Golan? And what message did Netanyahu wish to convey?
“A Golden Opportunity in the Golan”
The Israeli Knesset passed a law annexing the occupied Syrian Golan on December 14, 1981, at the instigation of the Menachem Begin
government. This annexation provoked strong Arab and international opposition, and no state or international body has recognized it.
Despite the annexation, successive Israeli governments have held talks, public and secret, direct and indirect, with Damascus regarding
Israeli withdrawal from the Golan and its return to Syria, in exchange for the signing of a comprehensive peace treaty and normalization
of relations. These talks have failed on every occasion because of Israeli intransigence and its refusal to withdraw to the borders
of June 4, 1967.
In November 2010, the Knesset approved an initiative of the Netanyahu government for a Referendum Law that significantly impedes
any attempts to withdraw from territories under Israeli sovereignty—meaning the Golan and occupied East Jerusalem (the latter also formally
annexed). The law, which requires that any Israeli withdrawal from an area under its sovereignty must receive a majority of votes in
a referendum, passed with the support of 61 out of a total of 120 Members of Knesset.
With the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011, and the decision by the Assad regime to turn it into a civil war, Israel has
adopted a stance that seeks a prolonged war which weakens Syria to the maximum possible extent. Since 2014, and particularly after the
emergence of ISIL, the Israeli leadership and its theorists have promoted the idea that the old Syria has gone, and that there is no
longer any chance of bringing it back; its fragmentation along sectarian, ethnic, and regional lines has become the de facto reality.[1]
Insiders in the Israeli military and security establishments have openly called on their government to exploit the ongoing conflict
in Syria. This would mean pressing for an international solution which would partition Syria as well as recognizing the Israeli occupation,
and eventual annexation, of the Golan Heights.[2]
There are indications that Israel has encouraged other states to support the division of Syria as part of a regional carve up of
the latter’s territory. Zvi Hauser, a Netanyahu confidante and Cabinet Secretary from 2009-2013, wrote an article entitled “A historic
opportunity in the Golan,” urging Israel to take advantage of the new circumstances brought about by the war in Syria, the collapse
of the Syrian state, and the changes in the Middle East, by obtaining international recognition of the annexation of the Golan. Hauser
argued that Israel, which had been unable to stop the major powers from reaching “a bad agreement” with Iran on the nuclear issue, should
make an effort to obtain suitable strategic compensation from the US. He recommended that this American compensation not be limited
to providing new high-tech weapons to Israel, but include US recognition of the need for the Syrian Golan to remain under Israeli sovereignty
in the form of a presidential commitment from the White House and a law in Congress. Hauser mentioned that the occupied Syrian Golan,
unlike the Occupied Palestinian Territories, did not represent a demographic problem for Israel, because there were only 24,000 Syrian
inhabitants as compared with 21,000 Jewish settlers.[3]
This reflects the fact that most of the original inhabitants of the Golan, who had numbered 130,000 during the 1967 Six Day War
had previously been driven out by the Israelis, with most of the newly created refugees settling in Damascus neighborhoods such as Jdeidat
Artouz and Al Hajar Al Aswad, to the south of the capital. Now numbering an estimated 600,000, these refugees and their descendants
were some of the first Syrians to rebel against in early 2011, eventually leading to their second displacement, but this time at the
hands of a supposed “Resistance Axis”, Arab regime.
At his meeting with US President Barack Obama on November 9, 2015, Netanyahu sought to explore the American view of Israel’s annexation
of the Golan Heights in light of developments in the war in Syria. According to Israeli sources, Netanyahu briefly raised the issue
with Obama during their discussions, with the Israeli premier stating that he had grave doubts about the possibility of reunifying Syria,
thus making it necessary to think differently about the future of the Golan. Obama made no reply to Netanyahu’s comments on the Golan.[4]
Deeply battered by the civil war, with half its population displaced and over half a million dead, Syria is weakened to the point
of virtual collapse. The fall of the government of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus would not be – as many of these intellectuals of the
American Empire agree – the best possible outcome. ‘Realistically,’ as Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institute put it in 2015,
‘the replacement of Assad’ does not ‘appear within reach’ given the lack of palatable alternatives. Moderate forces – as far as the
US determines – are simply not available. Therefore, the ouster of Assad in a precipitous way is considered foolhardy.
Instead of removing Assad, then, the United States should – argues O’Hanlon – push for the establishment of ‘one or two safe
zones in relatively promising locations,’ backed by ‘perhaps 1,000 American military personnel.’ In these ‘safe zones, local forces
– moderates, it is hoped – could be trained to put pressure on Assad’s government. ‘Ultimately, and ideally,’ O’Hanlon argues, ‘some
of the safe zones might merge together as key elements in a future con-federal arrangement.’ This dynamic could very well lead to
the ‘outright partition of the country if necessary.’ The partition is envisaged along the lines of sect and ethnicity – a Sunni
zone, an Alawite zone, and a Kurdish zone. O’Hanlon calls this ‘deconstructing Syria.’
In a recent column, New York Times’ Thomas Friedman muses over the possible futures for Syria. ‘The least bad solution is a
partition of Syria,’ Friedman suggests, ‘and the creation of a primarily Sunni protected area – protected by an international force,
including, if necessary, some US troops.’ The gap between O’Hanlon and Friedman is merely in that the former recognizes that in the
large mixed cities of Damascus and Aleppo, Hama and Homs, a partition would not be easy. ‘Prudence would have to be the watchword,’
writes O’Hanlon.
Neither O’Hanlon nor Friedman – both influential voices in Washington, DC – seem bothered by their imperial gestures. They are
quite happy to speak for Syrians, to offer tutelage to Syria which cannot seem to define its own destiny. These are men who will
speak of democracy and human rights when it suits them, but then transform just as easily into imperial bureaucrats with their
crayons ready to draw lines on someone else’s map.
The influence of these men can be felt quite palpably in the corridors of power. Late last year, CIA Director John Brennan said
quite casually, ‘I don’t know whether or not Syria and Iraq can be put back together again. There’s been so much bloodletting, so
much destruction, so many continued, seething tensions and sectarian divisions.’ The outcome of this, he suggested, is the partition
of Syria. Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford has said that there is already an ‘emerging partition’ of Syria into six zones
leading to the ‘Somalization of Syria.’ Amos Gilad, the Strategic Advisor to the Israeli Defense Ministry and well-regarded in US
intelligence circles, said, ‘Syria has reached its end.’ They – quite cavalierly – call for the dismemberment of the country.
Last month, before the US strikes on a government airfield, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested that once ISIS is
removed from the northern Syrian city of Raqqa, it would be ‘governed by local forces’ with US backing. What is being considered is
that the US would create – in northern Syria – an analogous development to the Kurdistan Regional Government, which is autonomous of
the Iraqi government. This statement was made in Turkey, where there is fear of a Syrian Kurdish state on its border. Turkey is not
bothered by the break-up of Syria. What it fears is the concrete reality that this fracturing shall produce a Syrian Kurdish
autonomous region with US support long the length of its southern border. Even here Turkish sentiments are over-read. Last November,
US General Joseph Dunford and Turkish General Hulusi Akar agreed that ‘the coalition and Turkey will work together on the long-term
plan for seizing, holding and governing Raqqa.’ This means that the US and the Turks would adopt this region, with the Turks eager
to make the Kurds marginal to their occupied zone.
In sum, all the major players who speak the syrupy language of democracy are quite willing to undemocratically plan for the
dismemberment of Syria.
Weaken Syria To Weaken Iran
Iran, since 1979, has confounded the West and its West Asian allies – Israel and Saudi Arabia. The point for these powers has
been to find a mechanism to weaken Iran. Saudi Arabia and the West backed Iraq’s long war against Iran precisely to hem in the
Islamic Republic.
In 1979, right after Iran’s Revolution, US embassy official Talcott Seelye wrote from Damascus that his government should
exaggerate the Alawite hold on the Syrian state so as to break the legitimacy of Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current
president. It was important to get rid of Assad, Seelye wrote, to dent Iran’s role in the region. ‘We are inclined to the view that
his days are numbered,’ Seelye wrote, even if by ‘the assassination of Assad.’ Although there is not really an Alawite control over
the government, Seelye noted, ‘perception is more important than reality.’
During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), the United States wished to hit Syria as a way to weaken Iran. In a revealing cable from
1983, CIA chief Graham Fuller urged his paymasters to bring ‘real muscle to bear against Syria.’ Fuller suggested that ‘the US
should consider sharply escalating military threats against Syria from three border states hostile to Syria: Iraq, Israel and
Turkey.’ He hoped that if these countries simultaneously attacked Syria, it would weaken its position and its prestige. If Syria’s
position was dented, Fuller argued, Iran would be forced ‘to reconsider bringing the war to an end.’ What is important is that the
regional countries – such as Iraq – ‘still need to remain on guard against Iranian influence and power throughout the Gulf.’ Hitting
Syria would weaken Iran. That was the posture in 1983 as it was in 1979 and as it is today.
Twenty years later, in 2006, the US political officer in Damascus, William Roebuck, wrote that his country should join with Saudi
Arabian intelligence to stoke fears of sectarianism in the country. Their stick would be to suggest to the Sunni community that Iran
was promoting a Shiite agenda in Syria. Roebuck’s cable reveals the continuation of fear mongering around Iran to increase sectarian
feeling to weaken Syrian society and the state. ‘There are fears in Syria,’ Roebuck wrote, ‘that the Iranians are active in both
Shia proselytizing and conversion of, mostly poor, Sunnis.’ What is startling is that Roebuck then conceded that this is ‘often
exaggerated.’ The Americans, Roebuck said, against all evidence, should join with the Saudis to ‘better publicize and focus regional
attention to this issue.’
The evidence actually showed that Saudi preachers had entered Syria in large numbers and they had established themselves in the
slums. It was in these mosques that they preached virulently sectarian rhetoric and prepared society for the outbreak of sectarian
violence. This is precisely what overran Syria in 2011. Roebuck advised his paymasters to encourage splits in the military, advised
the Gulf Arabs to stop investing in Syria and encouraged any mischief that would deprive the regime of any support. In other words,
Roebuck insisted on preparing the terrain for regime change which would harm – as US intelligence openly said a decade ago – both
the Lebanese political-military group Hezbollah and Iran.
Two years ago, the US State Department noted in a memorandum, ‘The best way to help Israel deal with Iran’s growing nuclear
capability is to help the people of Syria overthrow the regime of Bashar Assad.’ Fear of Iran saturates this document. The basic
argument is that Iran has its grip on West Asia through Syria and into Hezbollah. These have to be brought to heel. If Assad’s
government falls, then Iran’s conduit to Hezbollah would break. It was – therefore – essential to overthrow Assad. This has nothing
to do with the Syrian people or their needs, but everything to do with the Washington and Tel Aviv’s hallucinations about Iranian
power. The fall of Assad, the US diplomats calculated, would mean that ‘Iran would no longer have a foothold in the Middle East from
which to threaten Israel and undermine stability in the region.’
If Assad falls and a new – perhaps radical Islamist – regime comes to power in Damascus, how would this help Israel? A US
intelligence official told me this week that the word of this period is ‘Yugoslavia.’ The break-up of Yugoslavia, he said, left
behind minor states with no regional power. Balkanization, he said with a smile, would be the appropriate solution for Syria.Break
it up and Iran would lose its foothold and no powerful state would remain on Israel’s border to pose a threat. Israel could
permanently claim the Golan Heights, a US-backed state would emerge on the Syrian border, Jordan could help itself to the totality
of the Hawran plateau, an Alawite state would take the coastal plain, leaving a series of Sunni states from the al-Ghab valley to
the Hamad desert. A weak Syria would be easy to dominate.
Mischief surrounds Syria. Partition is seen as a way to destroy that state and offer Israel relief on its borders with Syria and
Lebanon. The rights and ambitions of the Syrian people are irrelevant to these plots and schemes.
Many of these crimes grew out of shortcomings in the military's management of the deployments that
experts say are still present: a heavy dependence on cash transactions, a hasty award process for high-value
contracts, loose and harried oversight within the ranks, and a regional culture of corruption that
proved seductive to the Americans troops transplanted there.
Notable quotes:
"... "this thing going on" ..."
"... a regional culture of corruption that proved seductive to the Americans troops transplanted there. ..."
The Fraud of War: U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan have stolen tens of millions through
bribery, theft, and rigged contracts.
U.S. Army Specialist Stephanie Charboneau sat at the center of a complex trucking network in Forward
Operating Base Fenty near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border that distributed daily tens of thousands
of gallons of what troops called "liquid gold": the refined petroleum that fueled the international
coalition's vehicles, planes, and generators.
A prominent sign in the base read: "The Army Won't Go If The Fuel Don't Flow." But Charboneau,
31, a mother of two from Washington state, felt alienated after a supervisor's harsh rebuke. Her
work was a dreary routine of recording fuel deliveries in a computer and escorting trucks past a
gate. But it was soon to take a dark turn into high-value crime.
Troops were selling the U.S. military's fuel to Afghan locals on the side, and pocketing the proceeds.
She began an affair with a civilian, Jonathan Hightower, who worked for a Pentagon contractor that
distributed fuel from Fenty, and one day in March 2010 he told her about "this thing going on"
at other U.S. military bases around Afghanistan, she recalled in a recent telephone interview.
Troops were selling the U.S. military's fuel to Afghan locals on the side, and pocketing the proceeds.
When Hightower suggested they start doing the same, Charboneau said, she agreed.
In so doing, Charboneau contributed to thefts by U.S. military personnel of at least $15 million
worth of fuel since the start of the U.S. war in Afghanistan. And eventually she became one of at
least 115 enlisted personnel and military officers convicted since 2005 of committing theft, bribery,
and contract-rigging crimes valued at $52 million during their deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq,
according to a comprehensive tally of court records by
the Center for Public Integrity.
Many of these crimes grew out of shortcomings in the military's management of the deployments that
experts say are still present: a heavy dependence on cash transactions, a hasty award process for
high-value contracts, loose and harried oversight within the ranks, and a regional culture of
corruption that proved seductive to the Americans troops transplanted there.
Charboneau, whose Facebook posts reveal a bright-eyed woman with a shoulder tattoo and a huge grin,
snuggling with pets and celebrating the 2015 New Year with her children in Seattle Seahawks jerseys,
now sits in Carswell federal prison in Fort Worth, Texas, serving a seven-year sentence for her crime.
"Pentagon officials said on Friday that the United States would deploy several hundred
troops to guard oil fields in eastern Syria, despite Mr. Trump's repeated boasts that he is
bringing American soldiers home from Syria. Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper said that the
United States would "maintain a reduced presence in Syria to deny ISIS access to oil
revenue," leaving what military officials said would be about 500 troops in the country, down
from about 2,000 a year ago.....
Senator Graham (R), too, contends that American control of the oil fields would "deny Iran
and Assad a monetary windfall," as he put it in a statement last week. But Mr. Graham has
taken the argument a step further, to suggest that Syrian oil could go into American coffers,
as Mr. Trump once implied for Iraq. "We can also use some of the revenue from oil sales to
pay for our military commitment in Syria," Mr. Graham added.
Last week, Mr. Trump offered a variation on that idea "we'll work something out with the
Kurds so that they have some money, they have some cash flow." He added that he might "get
one of our big oil companies to go in and do it properly."
And look back to his comments on Iraqs oil before taking office
"He has a short notebook of old pledges, and this was one of the most frequently repeated
pledges during the campaign: that we were going to take the oil," said Bruce Riedel, a former
C.I.A. official who served as a Middle East adviser to several presidents. "And now he
actually is in a position where he can quote, take some oil."
Mr. Trump first spoke approvingly about the United States seizing foreign oil in April
2011, when he complained about President Barack Obama's troop withdrawal from Iraq. "I would
take the oil," Mr. Trump told The Wall Street Journal. "I would not leave Iraq and let Iran
take the oil."
He elaborated in an interview with ABC News a few days later. "In the old days, you know,
when you had a war, to the victor belong the spoils." he said. "You go in. You win the war
and you take it."
That year, Mr. Trump endorsed the United States seizing oil reserves not only in Iraq, but
also in Libya, where Mr. Obama had recently intervened in the country's civil war. "I would
just go in and take the oil," he told Fox News. "We're a bunch of babies. We have wars and we
leave. We go in, we have wars, we lose lives, we lose money, and we leave."
Trump does not like endless wars but that does not mean he is adverse to war. Far from
pulling the US out of the middle east, Trump is engaging in a constant creeping build up of
forces. Every incident, more US forces are moved in.
"... One key, yet often overlooked, player behind the push to prevent a full U.S. troop withdrawal in Syria in order to "keep the oil" was current U.S. ambassador to Turkey, David Satterfield ..."
"... Over the course of his long diplomatic career, Satterfield has been known to the U.S. government as an Israeli intelligence asset embedded in the U.S. State Department. Indeed, Satterfield was named as a major player in what is now known as the AIPAC espionage scandal, also known as the Lawrence Franklin espionage scandal, although he was oddly never charged for his role after the intervention of his superiors at the State Department in the George W. Bush administration. ..."
"... WINEP's close association with AIPAC, which has spied on the U.S. on behalf of Israel several times in the past with no consequence, combined with Jeffrey's long-time acquaintance with key U.S. figures in Iraq, such as McGurk, provided an ideal opening for Israel in Iraq. Following the implementation of Jeffrey's plan, Israeli imports of KRG oil constituted 77 percent of Israel's total oil imports during the KRG's occupation of Kirkuk. ..."
"... the role played by the U.S. Israel lobby in this capacity, particularly in terms of orchestrating oil sale agreements for Israel's benefit, is hardly exclusive to Iraq and can accurately be described as a repeated pattern of behavior. ..."
The outsized role of U.S. Israel lobby operatives in abetting the theft of Syrian and Iraqi oil reveals how this
powerful lobby also facilitates more covert aspects of U.S.-Israeli cooperation and the implementation of policies that
favor Israel.
Kirkuk, Iraq
--
"We want to bring our soldiers home. But we did leave soldiers
because we're keeping the oil," President Trump stated on November 3, before adding, "I like oil. We're keeping the
oil."
Though he had promised a withdrawal of U.S. troops from their illegal occupation of Syria, Trump shocked many with
his blunt admission that troops were being left behind to prevent Syrian oil resources from being developed by the
Syrian government and, instead, kept in the hands of whomever the U.S. deemed fit to control them, in this case, the
U.S.-backed Kurdish-majority militia known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Though Trump himself received all of the credit -- and the scorn -- for this controversial new policy, what has been
left out of the media coverage is the fact that key players in the U.S.' pro-Israel lobby played a major role in its
creation with the purpose of selling Syrian oil to the state of Israel. While recent developments in the Syrian conflict
may have hindered such a plan from becoming reality, it nonetheless offers a telling example of the covert role often
played by the U.S.' pro-Israel lobby in shaping key elements of U.S. foreign policy and closed-door deals with major
regional implications.
Indeed, the Israel lobby-led effort to have the U.S. facilitate the sale of Syrian oil to Israel is not an isolated
incident given that, just a few years ago, other individuals connected to the same pro-Israel lobby groups and Zionist
neoconservatives manipulated both U.S. policy and Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in order to allow Iraqi oil
to be sold to Israel without the approval of the Iraqi government. These designs, not unlike those that continue to
unfold in Syria, were in service to longstanding neoconservative and Zionist efforts to balkanize Iraq by strengthening
the KRG and weakening Baghdad.
After the occupation of Iraq's Nineveh Governorate by ISIS (June 2014-October 2015), the Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG) took advantage of the Iraqi military's retreat and, amidst the chaos, illegally seized Kirkuk on June
12. Their claim to the city was supported by both the U.S. and Israel and, later, the U.S.-led coalition targeting ISIS.
This gave the KRG control, not only of Iraq's export pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan port, but also to Iraq's largest oil
fields.
Israel imported massive amounts of oil from the Kurds during this period, all without the consent of Baghdad. Israel
was also the
largest customer of oil
sold by ISIS, who used Kurdish-controlled Kirkuk to sell oil in areas of Iraq and Syria
under its control. To do this in ISIS-controlled territories of Iraq, the oil was sent first to the Kurdish city of
Zakho near the Turkey border and then into Turkey, deceptively labeled as oil that originated from Iraqi Kurdistan. ISIS
did nothing to impede the KRG's own oil exports even though they easily could have given that the Kirkuk-Ceyhan export
pipeline passed through areas that ISIS had occupied for years.
In retrospect, and following
revelations from Wikileaks
and new information regarding the background of relevant actors, it has been revealed
that much of the covert maneuvering behind the scenes that enabled this scenario intimately involved the United States'
powerful pro-Israel lobby. Now, with a similar scenario unfolding in Syria, efforts by the U.S.' Israel lobby to
manipulate U.S. foreign policy in order to shift the flow of hydrocarbons for Israel's benefit can instead be seen as a
pattern of behavior, not an isolated incident.
"Keep the oil" for Israel
After recent shifts in the Trump administration in its Syria policy, U.S. troops have controversially been kept in
Syria to "
keep
the oil
," with U.S. military officials subsequently claiming that doing so was "a subset of the counter-ISIS
mission." However, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper
later claimed
that another factor behind U.S. insistence on guarding Syrian oil fields was to prevent the extraction
and subsequent sale of Syrian oil by either the Syrian government or Russia.
One key, yet often overlooked, player behind the push to prevent a full U.S. troop withdrawal in Syria in order to
"keep the oil" was current U.S. ambassador to Turkey, David Satterfield. Satterfield was previously the assistant
secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, where he yielded great influence over U.S. policy in both Iraq and Syria
and worked closely with Brett McGurk, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran and later special
presidential envoy for the U.S.-led "anti-ISIS" coalition.
Over the course of his long diplomatic career, Satterfield has been known to the U.S. government as an Israeli
intelligence asset embedded in the U.S. State Department. Indeed, Satterfield was named as a major player in what is now
known as the AIPAC espionage scandal, also known as the Lawrence Franklin espionage scandal, although he was oddly never
charged for his role after the intervention of his superiors at the State Department in the George W. Bush
administration.
David
Satterfield, left, arrives in Baghdad with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, right, and Joey Hood, May 7, 2019. Mandel
Ngan | AP
In 2005, federal prosecutors cited a U.S. government official as
having illegally passed
classified information
to Steve Rosen, then working for AIPAC, who then passed that information to the Israeli
government. That classified information included intelligence on Iran and the nature of U.S.-Israeli intelligence
sharing. Subsequent media reports from the
New York Times
and other outlets revealed that this government
official was none other than David Satterfield, who was then serving as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near
East Affairs.
Charges against Rosen, as well as his co-conspirator and fellow AIPAC employee Keith Weissman, were dropped in 2009
and no charges were levied against Satterfield after State Department officials shockingly claimed that Satterfield had
"acted within his authority" in leaking classified information to an individual working to advance the interests of a
foreign government. Richard Armitage, a neoconservative ally with
a long history
of ties to CIA covert operations in the Middle East and elsewhere,
has since claimed
that he was one of Satterfield's main defenders in conversations with the FBI during this time
when he was serving as Deputy Secretary of State.
The other government official named in the indictment, former Pentagon official Lawrence Franklin, was not so lucky
and was charged under the Espionage Act in 2006. Satterfield, instead of being censured for his role in leaking
sensitive information to a foreign government, was subsequently promoted in 2006 to serve as the Coordinator for Iraq
and Senior Adviser to then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
In addition to his history of leaking classified information to AIPAC, Satterfield also has a longstanding
relationship with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a controversial spin-off of AIPAC also known by its
acronym WINEP. WINEP's website has long listed Satterfield as
one of its experts
and Satterfield has spoken at several WINEP events and policy forums, including several
after his involvement
with the AIPAC espionage scandal became public knowledge. However, despite his longstanding
and controversial ties to the U.S. pro-Israel lobby, Satterfield's current relationship with some elements of that
lobby, such as the Zionist Organization of America (ZOA), is complicated at best.
While Satterfield's role in yet another reversal of a promised withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria has largely
escaped media scrutiny, another individual with deep ties to the Israel lobby and Syrian "rebel" groups has also been
ignored by the media, despite his outsized role in taking advantage of this new U.S. policy for Israel's benefit.
US Israel Lobby secures deal with Kurds
Earlier this year, well before Trump's new Syria policy of "keeping the oil" had officially taken shape, another
individual with deep ties to the U.S. Israel lobby secured a lucrative agreement with U.S.-backed Kurdish groups in
Syria.
An official document
issued earlier this year by the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political arm of the
Kurdish majority and U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a New Jersey-based company,
founded and run
by U.S.-Israeli dual citizen Mordechai "Motti" Kahana, was given control of the oil in territory held by the SDC.
Per the document, the SDC formally accepted the offer from Kahana's company -- Global Development Corporation (GDC) --
to represent SDC in all matters pertaining to the sale of oil extracted in territory it controls and also grants GDC
"the right to explore and develop oil that is located in areas we govern."
The
SDC's formal acceptance of Global Development Corporation's offer to develop Syrian oil fields. Source |
Al-Akhbar
The document also states that the amount of oil then being produced in SDC-controlled areas was 125,000 barrels per
day and that they anticipated that this would increase to 400,000 barrels per day and that this oil is considered a
foreign asset under the control of the United States by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
After the document was made public by the Lebanese outlet
Al-Akhbar
, the SDC claimed that it was a forgery,
even though Kahana had
separately
confirmed
its contents and shared the letter itself to the
Los Angeles Times
as recently as a few weeks
ago. Kahana previously attempted to distance himself from the effort and
told the Israeli newspaper
Israel Hayom
in July that he had made the offer to the SDC as means to prevent
the "Assad regime" of Syria from obtaining revenue from the sale of Syrian oil.
The Kurds currently hold 11 oil wells in an area controlled by the [Syrian] Democratic Forces. The overwhelming
majority of Syrian oil is in that area. I don't want this oil reaching Iran, or the Assad regime."
At the time, Kahana also stated that "the moment the Trump administration gives its approval, we can begin to export
this oil at fair prices."
Given that Kahana has openly confirmed that he is representing the SDC's oil business shortly after Trump's adoption
of the controversial "keep the oil policy," it seems plausible that Kahana has now received the approval needed for his
company to export the oil on behalf of the SDC. Several media reports
have speculated
that, if Kahana's efforts go forward unimpeded, the Syrian oil will be sold to Israel.
However, considering Turkey's aversion to engaging in any activities that may benefit the PKK-SDF – there are
considerable obstacles to Kahana's plans. While the SDF -- along with assistance from U.S. troops -- still controls
several oil fields in Syria, experts assert that they can only realistically sell the oil to the Syrian government. Not
even the Iraqi Kurds are a candidate, considering Baghdad's firm control over the Iraq-Syria border and the KRG's
weakened state after its failed independence bid in late 2017.
Regardless, Kahana's involvement in this affair is significant for a few reasons. First, Kahana has been a key player
in the promotion and funding of radical groups in Syria and has even been
caught hiring
so-called "rebels" to kidnap Syrian Jews and take them to Israel against their will. It was Kahana,
for instance, who financed and orchestrated the now infamous trip of the late Senator John McCain to Syria, where he met
with Syrian "rebels" including Khalid al-Hamad – a "moderate" rebel who gained notoriety after a video of him eating the
heart of a Syrian Army soldier
went viral online
. McCain had also
admitted meeting
with ISIS members, though it is unclear if he did so on this trip or another trip to Syria.
In addition, Kahana was also the mastermind behind the "Caesar" controversy, whereby a Syrian using the pseudonym
"Caesar" was brought to the U.S. by Kahana and went on to make claims regarding torture and other crimes allegedly
committed by the Assad-led government Syria, claims which were
later discredited
by independent analysts. He was also
very involved
in Israel's failed efforts to establish a "safe zone" in Southern Syria as a means of
covertly expanding Israel's territory
from the occupied Golan Heights and into Quneitra.
Notably, Kahana has deep ties -- not just to efforts to overthrow the Syrian government -- but also to U.S. Israel
lobby, including the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) where Satterfield is as an expert. For instance,
Kahana was a key player in
a 2013 symposium
organized by WINEP along with Syrian opposition groups intimately involved in the arming of so-called "rebels." One of
the other participants in the symposium alongside Kahana was Mouaz Moustafa, director of the "Syrian Emergency Task
Force" who assisted Kahana in bringing McCain to Syria in 2013. Moustafa
was
listed
as a WINEP expert on the organization's website but was later mysteriously deleted.
Kahana is also intimately involved with the Israeli American Council (IAC), a pro-Israel lobby organization, as
a team member
of its national conference. IAC was co-founded and is chaired by
Adam Milstein
, a multimillionaire and convicted felon who is also on the boards of AIPAC, StandWithUs, Birthright
and other prominent pro-Israel lobby organizations. One of IAC's top donors is Sheldon Adelson, who is also the top
donor to President Trump as well as the entire Republican Party.
Though the machinations of both Kahana and Satterfield to guide U.S. policy in order to manipulate the flow of
Syria's hydrocarbons for Israel's benefit may seem shocking to some, this same tactic of pro-Israel lobbyists using the
Kurds to illegally sell a country's oil to Israel was developed a few years prior, not in Syria, but Iraq. Notably, the
individuals responsible for that policy in Iraq shared connections to several of the same pro-Israel lobby organizations
as both Satterfield and Kahana, suggesting that their recent efforts in Syria are not an isolated event, but a pattern.
War against ISIS is a war for oil
In
an email
dated June 15, 2014, James Franklin Jeffrey (former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey and current U.S. Special
Representative for Syria) revealed to Stephen Hadley, a former George Bush administration advisor then working at the
government-funded United States Institute of Peace, his intent to advise the KRG in order to sustain Kirkuk's oil
production. The plan, as Jeffery described it, was to supply both the Kurdistan province with oil and allow the export
of oil via Kirkuk-Ceyhan to Israel, robbing Iraq of its oil and strengthening the country's Kurdish region along with
its regional government's bid for autonomy.
Jeffrey,
whose hawkish views on Iran and Syria are well-known
, mentioned that Brett McGurk, the U.S.' main negotiator between
Baghdad and the KRG, was acting as his liaison with the KRG. McGurk, who had served in various capacities in Iraq under
both Bush and Obama, was then also serving Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran. A year later, he would
be made the special presidential envoy for the U.S.-led "anti-ISIS" coalition and, as previously mentioned, worked
closely with David Satterfield.
James
Jeffrey, left, meets with Kurdish Regional Government President Massoud Barzani, April 8, 2011, at an airport in
Irbil, Iraq. Chip Somodevilla | AP
Jeffrey was then a private citizen not currently employed by the government and was used as a non-governmental
channel in the pursuit of the plans described in the leaked emails published by WikiLeaks. Jeffrey's behind-the-scenes
activities with regards to the KRG's oil exports were done clandestinely, largely because he was then employed by a
prominent arm of the U.S.' pro-Israel lobby.
At the time of the email, Jeffrey was serving
as a
distinguished fellow
(2013-2018) at WINEP. As previously mentioned, WINEP is a pro-Israel foreign policy think-tank
that espouses neoconservative views and was created in 1985 by researchers
that had hastily left AIPAC to escape investigations
against the organization that were related to some of its
members conducting espionage on behalf of Israel. AIPAC, the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, is the largest
registered Israel lobbyist organization in the US (albeit registration under the Foreign Agents Registration Act would
be more suitable), and, in addition to the 1985 incident that led to WINEP's creation, has had members indicted for
espionage against the U.S. on Israel's behalf.
WINEP's launch was funded by former President of the Jewish Federation of Los Angeles, Barbara Weinberg, who is its
founding president and constant Chairman Emerita. Nicknamed 'Barbi', she is the wife of the late Lawrence Weinberg who
was President of AIPAC from 1976-81 and who JJ Goldberg, author of the 1997 book
Jewish Power,
referred to as
one of a select few individuals
who essentially dominated AIPAC regardless of its elected leadership.
Co-founder alongside Weinberg was Martin
Indyk. Indyk, U.S. Ambassador to Israel (1995-97) and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1997-99),
led the AIPAC research time that formed WINEP to escape the aforementioned investigations.
WINEP
has
historically
received funding from
donors
who donate
to causes of special interest for Zionism and Israel. Among its trustees are extremely prominent names in political
Zionism and funders of other Israel Lobby organizations, such as
Charles and Edgar Bronfman
and
the Chernicks
.
Its
membership
remains dominated by individuals who have spent their careers promoting Israeli interests in the U.S.
WINEP has become more well-known, and arguably more controversial, in recent years after its research director
famously called for false-flag attacks to trigger a U.S. war with Iran in 2012, statements well-aligned with
longstanding attempts by the Israel Lobby
to bring about such a war.
A worthy partner in crime
Stephen Hadley, another private citizen who Jeffrey evidently considered as a partner in his covert dealings
discussed in the emails, also has his own past of involvement with Israel-specific intrigues and meddling.
During the G.W. Bush administration, Hadley tagged along with
neoconservatives
in their numerous creations of fake intelligence and efforts to incriminate Iraq for possessing
chemical and nuclear weapons. Hadley was one of the promoters from within the U.S. government of the false claim that
9/11 hijacker Mohammed Atta met with Iraqi officials in Prague.
What this particular claim had in common with the
'Iraq meets Atta in Prague'
disinformation, and other famous lies against Iraq fabricated and circulated by the
dense neocon network, was its source: Israel and pro-Israel partisans.
The distribution
network
of these now long-debunked claims was none other than the neoconservatives who act a veritable Israeli fifth
column that has long sought to promote Israeli foreign policy objectives as being in the interest of the United States.
In this, Hadley played his part by helping to ensure that the United States was railroaded into a war that had long been
promoted by both Israeli and American neoconservatives, particularly Richard Perle -- an advisor to WINEP -- who had been
promoting regime change in Iraq
for Israel's explicit benefit
for decades.
In short, for covert intrigues to serve Israel that would likely be met with protest if pitched to the government for
implementation as policy, Hadley's resume was impressive.
Israeli interests pursued through covert channels
Given his employment at WINEP during this time, Jeffrey's intent to advise the KRG to sustain Kirkuk's oil production
despite the seizure of the Baiji oil refinery by ISIS is somewhat suspect, especially since it required that 100,000
barrels per day pass through ISIS-controlled territory unimpeded.
Jeffrey's email from June 14, therefore, demonstrated that he had foreknowledge that ISIS would not disturb the KRG
as long as the Kurds redirected oil that was intended originally for Baiji to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan export pipeline,
facilitating its export and later sale to Israel.
Notably, up until its liberation in mid-2015 by the Iraqi government and aligned Shia paramilitaries,
ISIS kept the refinery running
and, only upon their retreat, destroyed the facility.
One would normally expect ISIS to be opposed to such collusion given that the KRG, while a beneficiary of the
ISIS-Baghdad conflict, was not an ally of ISIS. Thus, a foreign power
with strategic ties to ISIS
used its
close ties to the KRG
and assurances that it was on-board for the oil trade, to deliver a credible guarantee that
ISIS would 'cooperate' and that a boom in production and exports was in the cards.
This foreign power -- acting as a guarantor for the ISIS-KRG understanding vis-a-vis the illegal oil economy,
represented by Jeffrey and clearly not on good terms with Iraq's government -- was quite clearly Israel.
Israel
established considerable financial support
as well as the provision of armaments to other extremist terrorist groups
active near the border between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and Southern Syria when war first broke out in Syria
in 2011. At least four of these extremist groups were led by individuals
with direct ties to Israeli intelligence
. These same groups, sometimes promoted as 'moderates' by some media, were
actively fighting Syria's government – an enemy of Israel and ally of Iran – before ISIS existed and
eagerly partnered with ISIS
when it expanded its campaign into Syria.
Israel has also long promoted the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, with Israel having provided Iraq's Kurds with
weapons, training and teams of Mossad advisers
as far back as the 1960s
. More recently,
Israel was the only state
to support the KRG independence referendum in September 2017 despite its futility, hinting
at the regard Israel holds for the KRG. Iraq's government subsequently militarily
defeated the KRG's push for statehood
and reclaimed Kirkuk's oil fields with assistance from the Shia paramilitaries
which were responsible for defeating ISIS in the area.
A
2014 map shows the areas under ISIS and Kurdish control at the time. Source |
Telegraph
This arrangement orchestrated by Jeffrey, served the long-time neoconservative-Israeli agenda of empowering the
Kurds,
selling Iraqi oil
to Israel and weakening Iraq's Baghdad-based government.
WINEP's close association with AIPAC,
which has spied on the U.S. on behalf of Israel
several times in the past with no consequence, combined with
Jeffrey's long-time acquaintance with key U.S. figures in Iraq, such as McGurk, provided an ideal opening for Israel in
Iraq. Following the implementation of Jeffrey's plan, Israeli imports of KRG oil constituted
77
percent of Israel's total oil imports
during the KRG's occupation of Kirkuk.
The WINEP connection to the KRG-Israel oil deal demonstrates the key role played by the U.S. pro-Israel Lobby, not
only in terms of sustaining U.S. financial aid to Israel and ratcheting up tensions with Israel's adversaries but also
in facilitating the more covert aspects of U.S.-Israeli cooperation and the implementation of policies that favor
Israel.
Yet the role played by the U.S. Israel lobby in this capacity, particularly in terms of orchestrating oil sale
agreements for Israel's benefit, is hardly exclusive to Iraq and can accurately be described as a repeated pattern of
behavior.
caucus99percent
free-range politics, organic community
Trump is stealing Syria's oil for the Saudis
gjohnsit
on Fri, 12/20/2019 - 4:28pm
President Trump recently said the quiet part
out loud
.
"We may have to fight for the oil. It's O.K.," he said. "Maybe somebody else wants the oil, in
which case they have a hell of a fight. But there's massive amounts of oil." The United States,
he added, should be able to take some of Syria's oil. "What I intend to do, perhaps, is make a
deal with an ExxonMobil or one of our great companies to go in there and do it properly," he
said. The goal would be to "spread out the wealth."
At the very least this amounts to pillaging, but then respect for the law isn't on Trump agenda.
Trump is "protecting" Syria's oil in the
exact
same way that the mob "protects" a
small businessman from arson.
Not
kind of
the same way. EXACTLY the same way.
Trump comment US intends to keep the oil in
Syria. Guard with US armored forces. Bring in US oil companies to modernize the field. WHAT ARE
WE BECOMING.... PIRATES? If ISIS is defeated we lack Congressional authority to stay. The oil
belongs to Syria.
https://t.co/Leko5s1hXF
So what "great companies" would be willing "to go in there" and "spread out the wealth?"
That company turned out to be
ARAMCO
.
Sources have disclosed that the Saudi Arabian Oil Company, commonly referred to as Aramco, has
sent a delegation of experts to discuss
investment opportunities in the oil fields and
wells in the Eastern Syrian city of Deir Ez-Zor.
According to the oppositionist news site Deir Ezzor 24, Aramco "started implementing
practical steps in this field, where a group of the company arrived in an official mission to
al-Omar oil field in the eastern Deir Ezzor countryside."
There is no legal means to do this. This is the outright theft of resources.
And it keeps getting worse.
It is believed that the
investments will be made through contracts signed between Aramco
and the US government
, whose armed forces have steadily been increasing their military
presence in terms of manpower and equipment around the oil fields.
That is trafficking in the sale of stolen property, but it gets even worse than that.
The Kurdish Syrian Defence Forces (formerly known as the YPG) currently control most of the
country's oil fields and have shifted towards an alliance with the Syrian government after
losing American protection in the north-east of the country in the wake of Trump's "withdrawal"
and ensuing Turkish offensive dubbed "Operation Peace Spring" to clear the area of Kurdish
militias
So we can't even pretend to be doing this for the benefit of the local population, our regional
allies, or any other justification except naked theft.
Trump should be in jail for this.
"I think in this case we are not talking about an operation associated with a huge share of
risk, but, on the contrary, about a well-thought-out operation."
- Professor RSUH Grigory Kosach
The Pentagon is enthusiastically cooperating in this blatant violation of international law.
US troops have
returned
to six out of 16 bases in Syria that had been previously abandoned during the October
withdrawal.
What's more, our military is
settling in
for the long haul.
Barely two months after US President Donald Trump's demagogic announcement that he was pulling
US troops out of northeastern Syria to fulfill his campaign promise to bring a halt to
Washington's "endless wars," the senior civilian and uniformed Pentagon chiefs told a House
panel Wednesday that
there is no foreseeable end to the American presence there.
...
Esper went even further, insisting that US military forces had to remain in Syria not so much to
counter any existing military force, but rather an "ideology".
"I think the defeat, if you will, will be hard because it's an ideology," Esper told the
House panel after repeated questions regarding US strategy in Syria.
"It's hard to
foresee anytime soon we would stamp it out,"
he added.
Everyone that somehow finds a way to defend Trump based on his so-called aversion to foreign
wars needs to take a good, hard look at this. Because THIS is 100% Trump's doing.
US-led forces have blown up three oil tankers in Syria as the United States increases
its pressure on Syria by thwarting the oil trade between the PKK/YPG and the Assad
regime, according to local sources quoted by several media sources.
The YPG are our Kurdish allies that the warmongers were so concerned about just a few
months ago. We "care" about them, right up until they want to sell oil to the Assad
regime. Then they deserve death.
That's OUR oil.
I think the powerful foreign policy cabal in Washington have him by the balls and give
them a squeeze when he gets off point.
One day he is pulling out. The next day he says
he staying in to "protect" the oil fields. The third day he sends US forces back in so he
can sell the oil so that the Syrians don't "steal" it.
What's going to happen on the fourth day when a half dozen American soldiers get
eviscerated by a roadside bomb while on patrol?
but just like congress won't make him withdraw troops from Yemen and stop supporting the
Saudis, they are in complete agreement with him doing that.
Israel bought Syria's oil from ISIS all during Obama's tenure as he watched them take
it out through Turkey.
But it's Russian aggression that is causing all the problems in the Middle East right?
And Iran's too. Why we can't make deals for resources instead of spending gawd only knows
how much money. But then the defense companies wouldn't get all of our money now would
they? We pay for the defense companies CEOs large bonuses and salaries. Great gig!
Regarding your last sentence: this is the great truth that Washington's world hegemonists would have you forget. Taking into
account the untapped vast resources of Canada and Alaska and its expansive offshore economic zones extending deep into the Atlantic,
the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico and the Arctic Ocean, the North American anglosphere could be entirely self-sufficient and do
quite nicely on its own for hundreds of years to come, it just wouldn't be the sole tyrannical state presumably ruling the entire
planet.
Why, it might even entertain the idea of actually cooperating with other regional powers like Russia, China, the EU, India,
Iran, Turkey, the Middle East, greater central Asia, Latin America and even Africa to everyone's benefit, rather than bullying
them all because god ordained us to be the boss of all humans.
America's major malfunction is its lack of historical roots compared to the other societies mentioned. All those places had
thousands of years to refine their sundry cultures and international relationships, certainly through trial and error and many
horrible setbacks, most notably wars, famines, pestilence, genocide and human bondage which people did not have the foresight
to nip in the bud. They learned by their mistakes and some, like the great world wars, were doozies.
The United States, and some of its closest homologues like Canada, Australia, Brazil and Argentina, were thrown together very
rapidly as part of developing colonial empires. It was created through the brute actions of a handful of megalomaniacal oligarchs
of their day. What worked to suppress vast tracts of aboriginal homelands, often through genocide and virtual extinction of the
native populations, was so effective that it was institutionalized in the form of slavery and reckless exploitation of the local
environment. These "great leaders," "pioneers" and "founding fathers" were not about to give up a set of principles -- no matter
how sick and immoral -- which they knew to "work" and accrued to them great power and riches. They preferred to label it "American
exceptionalism" and force it upon the whole rest of the world, including long established regional powers -- cultures going back
to antiquity -- and not just conveniently sketched "burdens of the white man."
No, ancient cultures like China, India, Persia and so forth could obviously be improved for all concerned merely by allowing
a handful of Western Europeans to own all their property and run all their affairs. That grand plan fell apart for most of the
European powers in the aftermath of World War Two, but Washington has held tough and never given up its designs of micromanaging
and exploiting the whole planet. It too is soon to learn its lesson and lose its empire. Either that or it will take the world
down in flames as it tries to cling to all that it never really owned or deserved. The most tragic (or maybe just amusing) part
is that Washington still had most of the world believing its bullshit about exceptionalism and indispensability until it decided
it had to emulate every tyrannical empire that ever collapsed before it.
Realist , April 30, 2019 at 02:08
"ex·tor·tion /ik?stôrSH(?)n/ noun The practice of obtaining something, especially money, through force or threats."
"Racketeering refers to crimes committed through extortion or coercion. A racketeer attempts to obtain money or property from
another person, usually through intimidation or force. The term is typically associated with organized crime."
I see. So, American foreign policy, as applied to both its alleged enemies and presumed allies, essentially amounts to an exercise
in organised crime. So much for due process, free trade, peaceful co-existence, magical rainbows and other such hypocritical platitudes
dispensed for domestic consumption in place of the heavy-handed threats routinely delivered to Washington's targets.
That's quite in keeping with the employment of war crimes as standard "tactics, techniques and procedures" on the battlefield
which was recently admitted to us by Senator Jim Molan on the "60 Minutes" news show facsimile and discussed in one of yesterday's
forums on this blog.
Afghanistan was promised a carpet of gold or a carpet of bombs as incentive to bend to our will (and that of Unocal which,
unlike Nordstream, was a pipeline Washington wanted built). Iraq was promised and delivered "shock and awe" after a secretary
of state had declared the mass starvation of that country's children as well worth the effort. They still can't find all the pieces
left of the Libyan state. Syria was told it would be stiffed on any American contribution to its rebuilding for the effrontery
of actually beating back the American-recruited, trained and financed ISIS terrorist brigades. Now it's being deliberately starved
of both its energy and food requirements by American embargoes on its own resources! North Korea was promised utter annihilation
by Yankee nukes before Kim's summit with our great leader unless it submitted totally to his will, or more likely that of Pompous
Pompeo, the man who pulls his strings. Venezuela is treated to cyber-hacked power outages and shortages of food, medicines, its
own gold bullion, income from its own international petroleum sales and, probably because someone in Washington thinks it's funny,
even toilet paper. All they have to do to get relief is kick out the president they elected and replace him with Washington's
chosen puppet! Yep, freedom and democracy blah, blah, blah. And don't even ask what the kids in Yemen got for Christmas from Uncle
Sam this year. (He probably stole their socks.) A real American patriot will laughingly take Iran to task for ever believing in
the first place that Washington could be negotiated with in good faith. All they had to do was ask the Native Americans (or the
Russians) how the Yanks keep their word and honor their treaties. It was their own fault they were taken for suckers.
Information from local sources said that US army helicopters have already transported the gold bullions under cover of darkness
on Sunday [February 24th], before transporting them to the United States.
The sources said that tens of tons that Daesh had been keeping in their last hotbed in al-Baghouz area in Deir Ezzor countryside
have been handed to the Americans, adding up to other tons of gold that Americans have found in other hideouts for Daesh, making
the total amount of gold taken by the Americans to the US around 50 tons, leaving only scraps for the SDF [Kurdish] militias that
serve them [the US operation].
Recently, sources said that the area where Daesh leaders and members have barricaded themselves in, contains around 40 tons
of gold and tens of millions of dollars.
Allegedly, "US occupation forces in the Syrian al-Jazeera area made a deal with Daesh terrorists, by which Washington gets tens
of tons of gold that the terror organization had stolen, in exchange for providing safe passage for the terrorists and their leaders
from the areas in Deir Ezzor where they are located."
ISIS was financing its operations largely by the theft of oil from the oil wells in the Deir Ezzor area, Syria's oil-producing
region, and they transported and sold this stolen oil via their allied forces, through Turkey, which was one of those US allies trying
to overthrow Syria's secular Government
and install a Sunni fundamentalist regime that would be ruled from Riyadh (i.e., controlled by the Saud family) . This gold is
the property of the Syrian Government, which owns all that oil and the oil wells, which ISIS had captured (stolen), and then sold.
Thus, this gold is from sale of that stolen black-market oil, which was Syria's property.
The US Government evidently thinks that the public are fools, idiots. America's allies seem to be constantly amazed at how successful
that approach turns out to be.
Jihadists were recruited from throughout the world to fight against Syria's secular Government. Whereas ISIS was funded mainly
by black-market sales of oil from conquered areas, the Al-Qaeda-led groups were mainly funded by the Sauds and other Arab royal families
and their retinues, the rest of their aristocracy. On 13 December 2013, BBC headlined
"Guide to the Syrian rebels" and opened "There are
believed to be as many as 1,000 armed opposition groups in Syria, commanding an estimated 100,000 fighters." Except in the Kurdish
areas in Syria's northeast, almost all of those fighters were being led by Al Qaeda's Syrian Branch, al-Nusra. Britain's Center on
Religion & Politics headlined on 21 December 2015,
"Ideology
and Objectives of the Syrian Rebellion" and reported: "If ISIS is defeated, there are at least 65,000 fighters belonging to other
Salafi-jihadi groups ready to take its place." Almost all of those 65,000 were trained and are led by Syria's Al Qaeda (Nusra), which
was protected by
the US
In September 2016 a UK official
"FINAL REPORT OF THE TASK
FORCE ON COMBATING TERRORIST AND FOREIGN FIGHTER TRAVEL" asserted that, "Over 25,000 foreign fighters have traveled to the battlefield
to enlist with Islamist terrorist groups, including at least 4,500 Westerners. More than 250 individuals from the United States have
also joined." Even just 25,000 (that official lowest estimate) was a sizable US proxy-army of religious fanatics to overthrow Syria's
Government.
On 26 November 2015, the first of Russia's videos of Russia's bombing ISIS oil trucks headed into Turkey was bannered at a US
military website
"Russia Airstrike on ISIS Oil Tankers" , and exactly a month later, on 26 December 2015, Britain's Daily Express headlined
"WATCH: Russian fighter jets smash ISIS oil tankers after spotting 12,000 at Turkish border" . This article, reporting around
twelve thousand ISIS oil-tanker trucks heading into Turkey, opened: "The latest video, released by the Russian defence ministry,
shows the tankers bunched together as they make their way along the road. They are then blasted by the fighter jet." The US military
had nothing comparable to offer to its 'news'-media. Britain's Financial Times headlined on 14 October 2015,
"Isis Inc: how oil fuels the jihadi terrorists" . Only America's allies were
involved in this commerce with ISIS -- no nation that supported Syria's Government was participating in this black market of stolen
Syrian goods. So, it's now clear that a lot of that stolen oil was sold for gold as Syria's enemy-nations' means of buying that oil
from ISIS. They'd purchase it from ISIS, but not from Syria's Government, the actual owner.
An estimated 20,000-40,000 barrels of oil are produced daily in ISIS controlled territory generating $1-1.5 million daily profit
for the terrorist organization. The oil is extracted from Dir A-Zur in Syria and two fields in Iraq and transported to the Kurdish
city of Zakhu in a triangle of land near the borders of Syria, Iraq and Turkey. Israeli and Turkish mediators come to the city
and when prices are agreed, the oil is smuggled to the Turkish city of Silop marked as originating from Kurdish regions of Iraq
and sold for $15-18 per barrel (WTI and Brent Crude currently sell for $41 and $45 per barrel) to the Israeli mediator, a man
in his 50s with dual Greek-Israeli citizenship known as Dr. Farid. He transports the oil via several Turkish ports and then onto
other ports, with Israel among the main destinations.
The US had done the same thing when it took over Ukraine by
a brutal coup in February 2014
: It grabbed the gold. Iskra News in Russian
reported, on 7 March 2014 , that "At 2 a.m. this morning ... an unmarked transport plane was on the runway at Borosipol Airport"
near Kiev in the west, and that, "According to airport staff, before the plane came to the airport, four trucks and two Volkswagen
minibuses arrived, all the truck license plates missing." This was as translated by Michel Chossudovsky at Global Research headlining
on 14 March,
"Ukraine's Gold Reserves Secretly Flown Out and Confiscated by the New York Federal Reserve?" in which he noted that, when asked,
"A spokesman for the New York Fed said simply, 'Any inquiry regarding gold accounts should be directed to the account holder.'" The
load was said to be "more than 40 heavy boxes." Chossudovsky noted that, "The National Bank of Ukraine (Central Bank) estimated Ukraine's
gold reserves in February to be worth $1.8 billion dollars." It was allegedly 36 tons. The US, according to Victoria Nuland (
Obama's detail-person
overseeing the coup ) had invested around $5 billion in the coup. Was her installed Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk
cleaning out the nation's gold reserves in order to strip the nation so that the nation's steep indebtedness for Russian gas would
never be repaid to Russia's oligarchs? Or was he doing it as a payoff for Nuland's having installed him? Or both? In any case: Russia
was being squeezed by this fascist
Ukrainian-American ploy.
The Syria operation was about oil, gold, and guns. However, most of America's support was to Al-Qaeda-led jihadists, not to ISIS-jihadists.
As the great independent investigative journalist Dilyana
Gaytandzhieva reported on 2 July 2017 :
"In December of last year while reporting on the battle of Aleppo as a correspondent for Bulgarian media I found and filmed
9 underground warehouses full of heavy weapons with Bulgaria as their country of origin. They were used by Al Nusra Front (Al
Qaeda affiliate in Syria designated as a terrorist organization by the UN)."
Furthermore, On
8 March 2013, Richard Spenser of Britain's Telegraph reported that Croatia's Jutarnji List newspaper had reported that "3,000
tons of weapons dating back to the former Yugoslavia have been sent in 75 planeloads from Zagreb airport to the rebels, largely via
Jordan since November. The airlift of dated but effective Yugoslav-made weapons meets key concerns of the West, and especially Turkey
and the United States, who want the rebels to be better armed to drive out the Assad regime."
Also, a September 2014 study by Conflict Armaments Research (CAR), titled
"Islamic State Weapons
in Iraq and Syria" , reported that not only east-European, but even US-made, weapons were being "captured from Islamic State
forces" by Kurds who were working for the Americans, and that this was very puzzling and disturbing to those Kurds, who were risking
their lives to fight against those jihadists.
In December 2017, CAR headlined
"Weapons of the Islamic State"
and reported that "this materiel was rapidly captured by IS forces, only to be deployed by the group against international coalition
forces." The assumption made there was that the transfer of weapons to ISIS was all unintentional.
That report ignored contrary evidence, which I summed up on 2 September 2017 headlining
"Russian TV
Reports US Secretly Backing ISIS in Syria" , and reporting there also from the Turkish Government an admission that the US was
working with Turkey to funnel surviving members of Iraq's ISIS into the Deir Ezzor part of Syria to help defeat Syria's Government
in that crucial oil-producing region. Moreover, at least one member of the 'rebels' that the US was training at Al Tanf on Syria's
Jordanian border had quit because his American trainers were secretly diverting some of their weapons to ISIS. Furthermore: why hadn't
the US bombed Syrian ISIS before Russia entered the Syrian war on 30 September 2015? America talked lots about its supposed effort
against ISIS, but why did US wait till 16 November 2015 before taking action,
"'Get Out Of Your Trucks And Run Away': US Gives ISIS 45 Minute Warning On Oil Tanker Strikes" ?
So, regardless of whether the US Government uses jihadists as its proxy-forces, or uses fascists as its proxy-forces, it grabs
the gold -- and grabs the oil, and takes whatever else it can.
This is today's form of imperialism.
Grab what you can, and run. And call it 'fighting for freedom and democracy and human rights and against corruption'. And the
imperial regime's allies watch in amazement, as they take their respective cuts of the loot. That's the deal, and they call it 'fighting
for freedom and democracy and human rights and against corruption around the world'. That's the way it works. International gangland.
That's the reality, while most of the public think it's instead really "fighting for freedom and democracy and human rights and against
corruption around the world." For example, as
RT reported on Sunday , March 3rd,
about John Bolton's effort at regime-change in Venezuela, Bolton said: "I'd like to see as broad a coalition as we can put together
to replace Maduro, to replace the whole corrupt regime,' Bolton told CNN's Jake Tapper." Trump's regime wants to bring clean and
democratic government to the poor Venezuelans, just like Bush's did to the Iraqis, and Obama's did to the Libyans and to the Syrians
and to the Ukrainians. And Trump, who pretends to oppose Obama's regime-change policies, alternately expands them and shrinks them.
Though he's slightly different from Obama on domestic policies, he never, as the US President, condemns any of his predecessors'
many coups and invasions, all of which were disasters for everybody except America's and allies' billionaires. They're all in on
the take.
The American public were suckered into destroying Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011, Syria in 2011-now, and so many other countries,
and still haven't learned anything, other than to keep trusting the allegations of this lying and psychopathically vicious and super-aggressive
Government and of its stenographic 'news'-media. When is enough finally enough ? Never? If not never, then when ? Or do most people
never learn? Or maybe they don't really care. Perhaps that's the problem.
Back on 21 December 2018, one of the US regime's top 'news'-media, the Washington Post, had headlined
"Retreating ISIS army smuggled a fortune in cash and gold out of Iraq and Syria" and reported that "the Islamic State is sitting
on a mountain of stolen cash and gold that its leaders stashed away to finance terrorist operations." So, it's not as if there hadn't
been prior reason to believe that some day some of the gold would be found after America's defeat in Syria. Maybe they just hadn't
expected this to happen quite so soon. But the regime will find ways to hoodwink its public, in the future, just as it has in the
past. Unless the public wises-up (if that's even possible).
In any case withdrawal from Syria was a surprising and bold move on the Part of the Trump. You can criticizes Trump for not doing
more but before that he bahvaves as a typical neocon, or a typical Republican presidents (which are the same things). And he started
on this path just two month after inauguration bombing Syria under false pretences. So this is something
I think the reason of change is that Trump intuitively realized the voters are abandoning him in droves and the sizable faction
of his voters who voted for him because of his promises to end foreign wars iether already defected or is ready to defect. So this is
a move designed to keep them.
Notable quotes:
"... "America shouldn't be doing the fighting for every nation on earth, not being reimbursed in many cases at all. If they want us to do the fighting, they also have to pay a price," Trump said. ..."
President Trump's big announcement to pull US troops out of Syria and Afghanistan is now emerging less as a peace move, and more
a rationalization of American military power in the Middle East. In a surprise visit to US forces in Iraq this week, Trump
said he had no intention of withdrawing the troops in that country, who have been there for nearly 15 years since GW Bush invaded
back in 2003.
Hinting at private discussions with commanders in Iraq, Trump boasted that US forces would in the future launch attacks from there
into Syria if and when needed. Presumably that rapid force deployment would apply to other countries in the region, including Afghanistan.
In other words, in typical business-style transactional thinking, Trump sees the pullout from Syria and Afghanistan as a cost-cutting
exercise for US imperialism. Regarding Syria, he has bragged about Turkey being assigned, purportedly, to "finish off" terror
groups. That's Trump subcontracting out US interests.
Critics and supporters of Trump are confounded. After his Syria and Afghanistan pullout call, domestic critics and NATO allies
have accused him of walking from the alleged "fight against terrorism" and of ceding strategic ground to US adversaries Russia
and Iran.
Meanwhile, Trump's supporters have viewed his decision in more benign light, cheering the president for "sticking it to"
the deep state and military establishment, assuming he's delivering on electoral promises to end overseas wars.
However, neither view gets what is going on. Trump is not scaling back US military power; he is rationalizing it like a cost-benefit
analysis, as perhaps only a real-estate-wheeler-dealer-turned president would appreciate. Trump is not snubbing US militarism or
NATO allies, nor is he letting loose an inner peace spirit. He is as committed to projecting American military as ruthlessly and
as recklessly as any other past occupant of the White House. The difference is Trump wants to do it on the cheap.
Here's what he said to reporters on Air Force One before touching down in Iraq:
"The United States cannot continue to be the policeman of the world. It's not fair when the burden is all on us, the United
States We are spread out all over the world. We are in countries most people haven't even heard about. Frankly, it's ridiculous."
He added: "We're no longer the suckers, folks."
Laughably, Trump's griping about US forces "spread all over the world" unwittingly demonstrates the insatiable, monstrous
nature of American militarism. But Trump paints this vice as a virtue, which, he complains, Washington gets no thanks for from the
150-plus countries around the globe that its forces are present in.
As US troops greeted him in Iraq, the president made explicit how the new American militarism would henceforth operate.
"America shouldn't be doing the fighting for every nation on earth, not being reimbursed in many cases at all. If they want
us to do the fighting, they also have to pay a price," Trump said.
This reiterates a big bugbear for this president in which he views US allies and client regimes as "not pulling their weight"
in terms of military deployment. Trump has been browbeating European NATO members to cough up more on military budgets, and he has
berated the Saudis
and other Gulf Arab regimes to pay more for American interventions.
Notably, however, Trump has never questioned the largesse that US taxpayers fork out every year to Israel in the form of nearly
$4 billion in military aid. To be sure, that money is not a gift because much of it goes back to the Pentagon from sales of fighter
jets and missile systems.
The long-held notion that the US has served as the "world's policeman" is, of course, a travesty.
Since WWII, all presidents and the Washington establishment have constantly harped on, with self-righteousness, about America's
mythical role as guarantor of global security.
Dozens of illegal wars on almost every continent and millions of civilian deaths attest to the real, heinous conduct of American
militarism as a weapon to secure US corporate capitalism.
But with US economic power in historic decline amid a national debt now over $22 trillion, Washington can no longer afford its
imperialist conduct in the traditional mode of direct US military invasions and occupations.
Perhaps, it takes a cost-cutting, raw-toothed capitalist like Trump to best understand the historic predicament, even if only
superficially.
This gives away the real calculation behind his troop pullout from Syria and Afghanistan. Iraq is going to serve as a new regional
hub for force projection on a demand-and-supply basis. In addition, more of the dirty work can be contracted out to Washington's
clients like Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia, who will be buying even more US weaponry to prop the military-industrial complex.
This would explain why Trump made his hurried, unexpected visit to Iraq this week. Significantly, he
said
: "A lot of people are going to come around to my way of thinking", regarding his decision on withdrawing forces from Syria
and Afghanistan.
Since his troop pullout plan announced on December 19, there has been serious pushback from senior Pentagon figures, hawkish Republicans
and Democrats, and the anti-Trump media. The atmosphere is almost seditious against the president. Trump flying off to Iraq on Christmas
night was
reportedly his first visit to troops in an overseas combat zone since becoming president two years ago.
What Trump seemed to be doing was reassuring the Pentagon and corporate America that he is not going all soft and dovish. Not
at all. He is letting them know that he is aiming for a leaner, meaner US military power, which can save money on the number of foreign
bases by using rapid reaction forces out of places like Iraq, as well as by subcontracting operations out to regional clients.
Thus, Trump is not coming clean out of any supposed principle when he cuts back US forces overseas. He is merely applying his
knack for screwing down costs and doing things on the cheap as a capitalist tycoon overseeing US militarism.
During past decades when American capitalism was relatively robust, US politicians and media could indulge in the fantasy of their
military forces going around the world in large-scale formations to selflessly "defend freedom and democracy."
Today, US capitalism is broke. It simply can't sustain its global military empire. Enter Donald Trump with his "business solutions."
But in doing so, this president, with his cheap utilitarianism and transactional exploitative mindset, lets the cat out of the
bag. As he says, the US cannot be the world's policeman. Countries are henceforth going to have to pay for "our protection."
Inadvertently, Trump is showing up US power for what it really is: a global thug running a protection racket.
It's always been the case. Except now it's in your face. Trump is no Smedley Butler, the former Marine general who in the 1930s
condemned US militarism as a Mafia operation. This president is stupidly revealing the racket, while still thinking it is something
virtuous.
Finian Cunningham (born 1963) has written extensively on international affairs, with articles published in several languages.
Originally from Belfast, Northern Ireland, he is a Master's graduate in Agricultural Chemistry and worked as a scientific editor
for the Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, England, before pursuing a career in newspaper journalism. For over 20 years he worked
as an editor and writer in major news media organizations, including The Mirror, Irish Times and Independent. Now a freelance journalist
based in East Africa, his columns appear on RT, Sputnik, Strategic Culture Foundation and Press TV.
dnm1136
Once again, Cunningham has hit the nail on the head. Trump mistakenly conflates fear with respect. In reality, around the world,
the US is feared but generally not respected.
My guess is that the same was true about Trump as a businessman, i.e., he was not respected, only feared due to his willingness
to pursue his "deals" by any means that "worked" for him, legal or illegal, moral or immoral, seemingly gracious or mean-spirited.
William Smith
Complaining how the US gets no thanks for its foreign intervention. Kind of like a rapist claiming he should be thanked for
"pleasuring" his victim. Precisely the same sentiment expressed by those who believe the American Indians should thank the Whites
for "civilising" them.
Phoebe S,
"Washington gets no thanks for from the 150-plus countries around the globe that its forces are present in."
That might mean they don't want you there. Just saying.
ProRussiaPole
None of these wars are working out for the US strategically. All they do is sow chaos. They seem to not be gaining anything,
and are just preventing others from gaining anything as well.
Ernie For -> ProRussiaPole
i am a huge Putin fan, so is big Don. Please change your source of info Jerome, Trump is one man against Billions of people
and dollars in corruption. He has achieved more in the USA in 2 years than all 5 previous parasites together.
Truthbetold69
It could be a change for a better direction. Time will tell. 'If you do what you've always been doing, you'll get what you've
always been getting.'
"... One of the most revealing and absurd responses to rejections of forever war is the ridiculous dodge that the U.S. isn't really at war when it uses force and kills people in multiple foreign countries: ..."
"... The distinction between "real war" and the constant U.S. involvement in hostilities overseas is a phony one. The war is very real to the civilian bystanders who die in U.S. airstrikes, and it is very real to the soldiers and Marines still getting shot at and blown up in Afghanistan. This is not an "antidote to war," but rather the routinization of warfare. ..."
"... The routinization and normalization of endless, unauthorized war is one of the most harmful legacies of the Obama administration. ..."
"... When the Obama administration wanted political and legal cover for the illegal Libyan war in 2011, they came up with a preposterous claim that U.S. forces weren't engaged in hostilities because there was no real risk to them from the Libyan government's forces. According to Harold Koh, who was the one responsible for promoting this nonsense, U.S. forces weren't engaged in hostilities even when they were carrying out a sustained bombing campaign for months. That lie has served as a basis for redefining what counts as involvement in hostilities so that the president and the Pentagon can pretend that the U.S. military isn't engaged in hostilities even when it clearly is. When the only thing that gets counted as a "real war" is a major deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops, that allows for a lot of unaccountable warmaking that has been conveniently reinvented as something else. ..."
One of the most revealing and absurd responses to
rejections of forever war
is the ridiculous dodge that the U.S. isn't really at war when it uses force and kills people in multiple foreign countries:
Just like @POTUS , who put a limited op of NE
#Syria under heading of "endless
war," this op-ed has "drone strikes & Special Ops raids" in indictment of US-at-war. In fact, those actions are antidote to war.
Their misguided critique is insult to real war. https://t.co/DCLS9IDKSw
War has become so normalized over the last twenty years that the constant use of military force gets discounted as something other
than "real war." We have seen this war denialism on display several times in the last year. As more presidential candidates and analysts
have started rejecting endless war, the war's
defenders have often
chosen to
pretend
that the U.S. isn't at war at all. The distinction between "real war" and the constant U.S. involvement in hostilities overseas is
a phony one. The war is very real to the civilian bystanders who die in U.S. airstrikes, and it is very real to the soldiers and
Marines still getting shot at and blown up in Afghanistan. This is not an "antidote to war," but rather the routinization of warfare.
Because Obama is relatively less aggressive and reckless than his hawkish opponents (a very low bar to clear), he is frequently
given a pass on these issues, and we are treated to misleading stories about his supposed "realism" and "restraint." Insofar as
he has been a president who normalized and routinized open-ended and unnecessary foreign wars, he has shown that neither of those
terms should be used to describe his foreign policy. Even though I know all too well that the president that follows him will
be even worse, the next president will have a freer hand to conduct a more aggressive and dangerous foreign policy in part because
of illegal wars Obama has waged during his time in office.
The attempt to define war so that it never includes what the U.S. military happens to be doing when it uses force abroad has been
going on for quite a while. When the Obama administration wanted political and legal cover for the illegal Libyan war in 2011, they
came up with a preposterous claim that U.S. forces weren't engaged in hostilities because there was no real risk to them from the
Libyan government's forces. According to Harold Koh, who was the one responsible for promoting this nonsense, U.S. forces weren't
engaged in hostilities even when they were carrying out a sustained bombing campaign for months. That lie has served as a basis for
redefining what counts as involvement in hostilities so that the president and the Pentagon can pretend that the U.S. military isn't
engaged in hostilities even when it clearly is. When the only thing that
gets counted as a "real war" is a major deployment
of hundreds of thousands of troops, that allows for a lot of unaccountable warmaking that has been conveniently reinvented as something
else.
It isn't just physical war that results in active service body bags but our aggression has alreay cost lives on the home front
and there is every reason to believe it will do so again.
We were not isolationists prior to 9/11/2001, Al Qaeda had already attacked but we were distracted bombing Serbia, expanding
NATO, and trying to connect Al Qaeda attacks to Iran. We were just attacked by a Saudi officer we were training on our soil to
use the Saudis against Iran.
It remains to be seen what our economic warfare against Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Yemen, and our continued use of Afghanistan
as a bombing platform will cost us. We think we are being clever by using our Treasury Dept and low intensity warfare to minimize
direct immediate casualties but how long can that last.
This article confirms what the last Real Commander-in-Chief, General/President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned about when he retired
58 years ago.
His wise Council based on his Supreme Military-Political experience has been ignored.
The MSM, Propagandists for the Military-Industrial Complex, won't remind the American People.
Until the latest of our world conflicts, the United States had no armaments industry. American makers of plowshares could,
with time and as required, make swords as well.
But now we can no longer risk emergency improvisation of national defense; we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments
industry of vast proportions.
Added to this, three and a half million men and women are directly engaged in the defense establishment. We annually spend on
military security more than the net income of all United States corporations.
This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total
influence -- economic, political, even spiritual -- is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government.
We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the
very structure of our society.
In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought,
by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.
We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for
granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military
machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.
The psychological contortionism required to deny that we are at war amazes me. US military forces are killing people in other
countries – but it's not war? Because we can manufacture comforting euphemisms like "police action" or "preventive action" or
"drone strike," it's not war? Because it's smaller scale than a "real" war like WWII?
Cancer is cancer. A small cancer is still a cancer. Arguing that it's not cancer because it's not metastatic stage IV is, well,
the most polite term is sophistry. More accurate terms aren't printable.
I think it should have been seen as a thirty year campaign and the same with Iraq and Libya.
The northern Ireland campaign took 30 years and many people are as bitter as they ever were
much of it secondhand from younger people who weren't even alive during the conflict. The
idea of a quick war is a very big mistake I think and flawed short-term thinking.
The West and the USA in particular have always taken the stand that their ideology is the
only right one. That they have a right to interfere in the interns, affairs of other
countries but their own internal affairs are sacrosanct.
So - USA, with UK support decided that Saddam Hussein had to be removed. They moved in to
do so - they killed Saddam but had no plan to return the country to a functioning nation.
Instead they facilitated the unleashing of internal wars and have now left the citizens of
that country in utter turmoil.
& then went and repeated the exercise n Libya.
Decades ago, Britain decided that Palestinians could be thrown out of their homes to make
way for the creation of Israel and laid the foundation for the Middle-East turmoil that has
caused untold misery and suffering. They followed that up with throwing out the Chagosians
out of their homes and making them homeless. Invited Caribbean's to the 'Mother Country' to
serve their erstwhile lords, ladies, masters and mistresses only to then drive to despair the
children and grandchildren of the invitees who had contributed to the 'Mother Country' for
decades.
We are 18 years into an illegal invasion and occupation of Afghanistan. We are the invaders,
the terrorists. The Taliban are fighting for their country, they may use brutal methods but
so did the French, Dutch, Russian freedom fighters during the Nazi invasions. America's
puppet regime in Afghanistan is reminiscent of the Quislings of WW2. And to use drones to
kill Afghans and to say it is progress that there is more transparency is the height of
hubris. All it does is show the corrosive effect of unfettered power in America and it's
military. Why do we tolerate this inhuman action on another country's society? America is by
far the greatest contributor to the rise in terrorism in the world and if not somehow stopped
the greatest threat to world peace. It keeps on invading country after country with it's MSM
propaganda machine claiming it is spreading Democracy throughout the globe. Thank you America
!
The US openly occupies parts of Syria, boasts of taking it resources and supported the
attempts of the Kurds to set up their own little state, until the Turks blew a hissy fit.
And
yet it has the gall to call out what Russia does in the Ukraine as a breach of international
law.
US military commanders overseeing Syria operations are still waiting for precise
battlefield orders from the White House and Pentagon on their exact mission to protect
oilfields in eastern Syria, according to a defense official directly familiar with the
matter.
Nearly three weeks after President Donald Trump ordered troops out of northern Syria,
publicly declaring he was taking "control" of the oil and sending troops and armored carriers
to protect it from ISIS, US commanders lack clarity on the most basic aspects of their
mission, including how and when troops can fire their weapons and what, exactly, that mission
is.
The lack of precise orders means troops are on the ground while critical details are still
being worked out -- exactly where they will go, when and how they will stay on small bases in
the area, and when they go on patrol.
Perhaps most crucially, there is no clarity about exactly who they are operating against
in the oilfields.
Everything the Trump administration has done in Syria has been horribly confused, so it
makes sense that the latest version of the policy would be baffling to our own troops. U.S.
commanders lack clarity about the mission because it was cooked up to appeal to the president's
desire for plundering other countries' resources. It was thrown together on the spur of the
moment as an excuse to keep U.S. troops in Syria no matter what, and now those troops are stuck
there with no instructions and no idea what they are expected to do. This is the worst kind of
unnecessary military mission, because it is being carried out simply to keep a U.S. foothold in
Syria for its own sake. The "critical details" aren't being worked out so much as a plausible
justification after the fact is being conjured out of thin air. There is no reason for these
troops to be there, and there is nothing that they can do there legally, but the administration
will come up with some bad argument to keep them there anyway.
Meanwhile, Trump is very proud of his clownish, illegal Syria policy:
Trump labors under the delusion that the oil is ours to "distribute." which everyone else
knows to be false. The oil belongs to the Syrian government, and that oil can't be sold and
revenues from those sales cannot be used without the permission of the government that owns it.
Syria's oil resources are not that great, and the infrastructure of many of the fields has been
damaged or destroyed, so if it were legal to loot the spoils there wouldn't be very much to
loot. The president thinks that seizing Syrian oil is worth boasting about, but in reality it
is one of the most absurd and indefensible reasons for deploying troops abroad. In addition to
damaging the country's international standing with allied and friendly governments with this
open thievery, Trump's "take the oil" fixation is a propaganda coup for hostile governments and
groups. As Paul Pillar pointed out last week, it plays into the
hands of jihadist groups and aids them in their recruitment:
Trump's Sunday appearance before the press played right into this theme. Referring back to
the Iraq War, Trump described as his own view at the time that if the United States was going
into Iraq, it should "keep the oil." As for Syria's oil, he said it can help the Kurds but
"it can help us because we should be able to take some also. And what I intend to do,
perhaps, is make a deal with an Exxon Mobil or one of our great companies to go in there and
do it properly." A propagandist for ISIS or al-Qaeda would hardly have written the script
differently.
Keeping troops in Syria to "take the oil" is divorced from genuine American security
interests just like any other unnecessary military intervention. The president is exposing U.S.
military personnel to unnecessary risk, and he is also putting them in legal jeopardy by
ordering them to commit what is essentially the war crime of pillaging. The president has
managed to take a Syria policy that was already incoherent and chaotic and he has made it even
worse.
"... Washington's basic purpose in deploying the US forces in oil and natural gas fields of Deir al-Zor governorate is to deny the valuable source of income to its other main rival in the region, Damascus. ..."
Before the evacuation of 1,000 American troops from northern
Syria to western Iraq, the Pentagon had 2,000 US forces in Syria.
After the drawdown of US
troops at Erdogan's insistence in order for Ankara to mount a ground offensive in northern Syria,
the US has still deployed 1,000 troops, mainly in oil-rich eastern Deir al-Zor province and
at al-Tanf military base.
Al-Tanf military base is strategically located in southeastern Syria on the border between Syria,
Iraq and Jordan, and it straddles on a critically important Damascus-Baghdad highway, which
serves as a lifeline for Damascus.
Washington has illegally occupied 55-kilometer area around
al-Tanf since 2016, and several hundred US Marines have trained several Syrian militant groups there.
It's worth noting that rather than fighting the Islamic State, the purpose of continued presence
of the US forces at al-Tanf military base is to address Israel's concerns regarding the expansion of
Iran's influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Regarding the oil- and natural gas-rich Deir al-Zor governorate, it's worth pointing out
that Syria used to produce modest quantities of oil for domestic needs before the war – roughly 400,000
barrels per day, which isn't much compared to tens of millions barrels daily oil production in the
Gulf states.
Although Donald Trump crowed in a characteristic blunt manner in a tweet after the withdrawal of
1,000 American troops from northern Syria that Washington had deployed forces in eastern Syria where
there was oil,
the purpose of exercising control over Syria's oil is neither to smuggle oil
out of Syria nor to deny the valuable source of revenue to the Islamic State.
There is no denying the fact that the remnants of the Islamic State militants are still found in
Syria and Iraq but its emirate has been completely dismantled in the region and its leadership is on
the run. So much so that the fugitive caliph of the terrorist organization was killed in the bastion
of a rival jihadist outfit, al-Nusra Front in Idlib, hundreds of kilometers away from the Islamic State
strongholds in eastern Syria.
Much like the "scorched earth" battle strategy of medieval warlords – as in the case of the Islamic
State which early in the year burned crops of local farmers while retreating from its former strongholds
in eastern Syria –
Washington's basic purpose in deploying the US forces in oil and
natural gas fields of Deir al-Zor governorate is to deny the valuable source of income to its other
main rival in the region, Damascus.
After the devastation caused by eight years of proxy war, the Syrian government is in dire need
of tens of billions dollars international assistance to rebuild the country. Not only is Washington
hampering efforts to provide international aid to the hapless country, it is in fact squatting over
Syria's own resources with the help of its only ally in the region, the Kurds.
Although Donald Trump claimed credit for expropriating Syria's oil wealth, it bears mentioning
that "scorched earth" policy is not a business strategy, it is the institutional logic of the deep
state.
President Trump is known to be a businessman and at least ostensibly follows a non-interventionist
ideology; being a novice in the craft of international diplomacy, however, he has time and again been
misled by the Pentagon and Washington's national security establishment.
Regarding Washington's interest in propping up the Gulf's autocrats and fighting their wars in regional
conflicts, it bears mentioning that in April 2016, the Saudi foreign minister
threatened
that the Saudi kingdom would sell up to $750 billion in treasury securities and other
assets if the US Congress passed a bill that would allow Americans to sue the Saudi government in the
United States courts for its role in the September 11, 2001 terror attack – though the bill was eventually
passed, Saudi authorities have not been held accountable; even though 15 out of 19 9/11 hijackers were
Saudi nationals.
Moreover, $750 billion is only the Saudi investment in the United States, if we add its investment
in Western Europe and the investments of UAE, Kuwait and Qatar in the Western economies, the sum total
would amount to trillions of dollars of Gulf's investments in North America and Western Europe.
Furthermore, in order to bring home the significance of the Persian Gulf's oil in the energy-starved
industrialized world, here are a few stats from the OPEC data:
Saudi Arabia has the world's
largest proven crude oil reserves of 265 billion barrels and its daily oil production exceeds 10 million
barrels; Iran and Iraq, each, has 150 billion barrels reserves and has the capacity to produce 5 million
barrels per day, each; while UAE and Kuwait, each, has 100 billion barrels reserves and produces 3
million barrels per day, each; thus, all the littoral states of the Persian Gulf, together, hold 788
billion barrels, more than half of world's 1477 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.
No wonder then, 36,000 United States troops have currently been deployed in their numerous military
bases and aircraft carriers in the oil-rich Persian Gulf in accordance with the Carter Doctrine of
1980, which states: "Let our position be absolutely clear: an attempt by any outside force to gain
control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United
States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military
force."
Additionally, regarding the Western defense production industry's sales of arms to the Gulf Arab
States,
a report
authored
by William Hartung of the US-based Center for International Policy found that the Obama administration
had offered Saudi Arabia more than $115 billion in weapons, military equipment and training during
its eight-year tenure.
Similarly, the top items in Trump's agenda for his maiden visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2017 were:
firstly, he threw his weight behind the idea of the Saudi-led "Arab NATO" to counter Iran's influence
in the region; and secondly, he announced an unprecedented arms package for Saudi Arabia. The package
included between $98 billion and $128 billion in arms sales.
Therefore, keeping the economic dependence of the Western countries on the Gulf Arab States in mind,
during the times of global recession when most of manufacturing has been outsourced to China, it is
not surprising that when the late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia decided to provide training and arms
to the Islamic jihadists in the border regions of Turkey and Jordan against the government of Bashar
al-Assad in Syria, the Obama administration was left with no other choice but to toe the destructive
policy of its regional Middle Eastern allies, despite the sectarian nature of the proxy war and its
attendant consequences of breeding a new generation of Islamic jihadists who would become a long-term
security risk not only to the Middle East but to the Western countries, as well.
Similarly, when King Abdullah's successor King Salman decided, on the whim of the Crown Prince Mohammad
bin Salman, to invade Yemen in March 2015, once again the Obama administration had to yield to the
dictates of Saudi Arabia and UAE by fully coordinating the Gulf-led military campaign in Yemen not
only by providing intelligence, planning and logistical support but also by selling billions of dollars'
worth of arms and ammunition to the Gulf Arab States during the conflict.
In this reciprocal relationship, the US provides security to the ruling families of the Gulf Arab
states by providing weapons and troops; and in return, the Gulf's petro-sheikhs contribute substantial
investments to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars to the Western economies.
Regarding the Pax Americana which is the reality of the contemporary neocolonial order,
according to a January 2017
infographic
by the New York Times, 210,000 US military personnel were stationed all over the world,
including 79,000 in Europe, 45,000 in Japan, 28,500 in South Korea and 36,000 in the Middle East.
Although Donald Trump keeps complaining that NATO must share the cost of deployment of US troops,
particularly in Europe where 47,000 American troops are stationed in Germany since the end of the Second
World War, 15,000 in Italy and 8,000 in the United Kingdom, fact of the matter is that the cost is
already shared between Washington and host countries.
Roughly, European countries pay one-third of the cost for maintaining US military bases in Europe
whereas Washington chips in the remaining two-third. In the Far Eastern countries, 75% of the cost
for the deployment of American troops is shared by Japan and the remaining 25% by Washington, and in
South Korea, 40% cost is shared by the host country and the US contributes the remaining 60%.
Whereas the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) – Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar – pay
two-third of the cost for maintaining 36,000 US troops in the Persian Gulf where more than half of
world's proven oil reserves are located and Washington contributes the remaining one-third.
* * *
Nauman Sadiq is an Islamabad-based attorney, columnist and geopolitical analyst focused on the
politics of Af-Pak and Middle East regions, neocolonialism and petro-imperialism.
I am always amazed (and amused) at
how much smarter "journalists" are
than POTUS. If ONLY Mr. Trump would
read more and listen to those who
OBVIOUSLY are sooo much smarter!!!!
Maybe then he wouldn't be cowed and
bullied by Erdogan, Xi, Jung-on,
Trudeau (OK so maybe that one was
too far fetched) to name a few.
Please note the sarcasm. Do I really
need to go in to the success after
success Mr. Trump's foreign policy
has enjoyed? Come on Man.
What a load of BOLOCKS...The ONLY, I
mean The Real and True Reason for
American Armored presence is one
thing,,,,,,,Ready for IT ? ? ? To
Steal as much OIL as Possible, AND
convert the Booty into Currency,
Diamonds or some other intrinsically
valuable commodity, Millions of
Dollars at a Time......17 Years of
Shadows and Ghost Trucks and Tankers
Loading and Off-Loading the Black
Gold...this is what its all
about......M-O-N-E-Y....... Say It
With Me.... Mon-nee, Money Money
Mo_on_ne_e_ey, ......
From the sale of US oil in Syria
receive 30 million. dollars per
month. Image losses are immeasurably
greater. The United States put the
United States as a robbery bandit.
This is American democracy. The
longer the troops are in Syria, the
more countries will switch to
settlements in national currencies.
"Our interests", "strategic
interests" is always about money,
just a euphemism so it doesn't
look as greedy as it is. Another
euphemism is "security' ,meaning
war preparations.
...The military power of the USA
put directly in the service of "the
original TM" PIRATE STATE.
U are
the man Norm! But wait... now things
get a little hazy... in the
classic... 'alt0media fake
storyline' fashion!
"President Trump is known to be a
businessman and at least ostensibly
follows a non-interventionist
ideology; being a novice in the
craft of international diplomacy,
however, he has time and again been
misled by the Pentagon and
Washington's national security
establishment."
Awww! Poor "DUmb as Rocks
Donnie" done been fooled agin!
...In the USA... the military men
are stirring at last... having been
made all too aware that their
putative 'boss' has been operating
on behalf of foreign powers ever
since being [s]elected, that the
State Dept of the once Great
Republic has been in active cahoots
with the jihadis ...
and that those who were sent over
there to fight against the
headchoppers discovered that the
only straight shooters in the whole
mess turned out to be the Kurds who
AGENT FRIMpf THREW UNDER THE BUS
ON INSTRUCTIONS FROM JIHADI HQ!
Good historical rundown of
Uncle Sam's blatant theft of resources in Syria .. has historical precedent too I believe;
the wars in Southeast Asia (the golden triangle and the drug trade). Afghanistan (heroin and
the poppies); imagine, we come and destroy your country and then steal your resources in the
aftermath. Sickening
@joost #33 I like to think that Trump's saying that the US army are going to steal Syria's
oil is very much the same strategy. What better way to turn world opinion against US
occupation of Syria?
Good historical rundown of
Uncle Sam's blatant theft of resources in Syria .. has historical precedent too I believe;
the wars in southeast asia (the golden triangle and the drug trade). Afghanistan (heroin and
the poppies); imagine, we come and destroy your country and then steal your resources in the
aftermath. Sickening
@49 Tim Glover. Exactly, imagine Obama saying that. Trump seems to have a habit of using
reverse psychology on people. This strategy works very well when nobody likes you and you
have the power of Twitter at your disposal.
People tend to overestimate the power of the US president. Every one of them, being democrat
or republican, gets assimilated by the borg. Resistance is futile, unless you are perceived
to be an idiot and do just enough to please your overlords. The Borg likes what he says, "we
are there for the oil" and they are getting reckless, exposing themselves for what they are.
Group think distorts perception and that is their weak spot. The borg will get more open
about their crimes and their true intentions. This breaks global support for the petrodollar
and that will be the end of the "outlaw" US empire.
I am surprised that I've not seen any commentary regarding the US's announcement that they
will continue to steal Syria's oil, and more importantly what anyone - Syria, Russia or
anyone else - might do about this blatant crime.
Clearly this challenges Syria's sovereignty as well as Russia's declared aim to restore
Syrian territory in full.
Any thoughts how this situation might evolve? IMO Russia has to remain a facilitator
rather than an actor. A "no-fly zone" enforced by Syrians and SAA ground troops?
Stripes: Carolina Army Guard troops move into eastern Syria with Bradley Fighting Vehicles
WASHINGTON – National Guard members from North and South Carolina began moving into
eastern Syria with heavy armored vehicles on Thursday as part of the Pentagon's new mission
to secure oil fields wrestled from the Islamic State, a military spokesman said.
Soldiers with the North Carolina-based 4th Battalion, 118th Infantry Regiment and the
South Carolina-based 218th Maneuver Enhancement Brigade were deployed to Deir al-Zour to
protect American-held oil fields around that city, Army Col. Myles Caggins, the spokesmen
for the U.S.-led anti-ISIS mission known as Operation Inherent Resolve, tweeted Thursday.
Caggins' tweet included photos of soldiers loading M2A2 Bradley Fighting Vehicles onto Air
Force C-17 Globemaster cargo jets to be used on the mission. . . .
For now, the new deployment will not include M1 Abrams tanks, the Pentagon official said
Thursday.
here
Why use regulars when we can call up the National Guard?
US hold on the oilfields depends mostly on Iraq. The oilfields of Deir Ezzor are in open
country with few towns and apart from the Euphrates flood plain is sparsely populated.
The only cover for guerrilla style attacks against US or its proxies on the oilfields will
be the occasional dust storm.
Apart from Iraq, syria setting up S-300 at deir Ezzor and taking control of the airspace
would also be a game changer but this may not happen.
Lebanon and Iraq are both undergoing US color revolutions at the moment so its a matter of
waiting for the dust to settle on both these moves to see where US is positioned in the
region.
Yet the US military is overwhelmingly the #1 most trusted US institution among Americans,
despite it forcibly wasting their hard earned money to kill tens of millions of innocents
abroad. At the same time the US is also filled to the brim with draft dodgers.
If anybody thinks Bolton and his chickenhawking buddies isn't representative of the whole
US, think again.
Don Bacon 73 "Really? I thought the protests were like many other protests around the world,
over economic issues."
As was the Syrian 'revolution'. Plenty of small US companies willing to go in. US already
has buyers as they have been shipping oil out of east Syria for some time. Turkey, Israel ect
plus many more willing to buy at a discount. And considering the oilfields are simply stolen,
oil can be sold at a discount.
Read the transcript of Trump's announcement this morning. He explicitly says he is keeping
the oil, and might invite in Exxon to use it. Logistics are sketchy, because who will buy it?
The pipelines will go through Syrian controlled territory. But he also says that a deal might
be possible. It's ridiculous.
Revenue from Syria's oilfields is about a $million/day. That is a small fraction of what it
costs to maintain even one little US military base in Syria.
Try to hold tight to a sense of perspective, folks. Trump is a businessman. Not a very
good one, perhaps, but certainly not so stupid that he cannot see that as an incredibly bad
deal. This "keeping the oil" nonsense is empty posturing intended to appeal to shallow
thinkers who don't know the difference between Syria and Venezuela and who don't really care
what American foreign policy is so long as it is done with an arrogant swagger. Now that may
be the majority of the US population, but these kinds are not even going to remember the
tweet this time next week, much less even care.
"Keeping the oil" is not only tactically, strategically, and logistically
untenable, it is such a baldfaced violation of so many US and international laws, treaties,
and agreements that even America's fig leaf of last resort, Canada, would have to condemn it.
This is just childish posturing to throw the appearance of bravado on America's exit from the
theatre. People functioning at the level of many posters here need to stop taking it so
seriously.
Revenue from Syria's oilfields is about a $million/day. That is a small fraction of what it
costs to maintain even one little US military base in Syria.
Try to hold tight to a sense of perspective, folks.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 27 2019 18:18 utc | 45
The point of "keeping the oil" is not to profit from it, but to deny it to the Syrians.
That's what Bibi wants.
@ 53
"Keeping the oil" is also meant to send a political message that you-know-who is still in
charge here, a Carter Doctrine policy that has been in tatters recently.
On the Syrian oil, US apparently was raking in 30 million a month in an operation that was
small enough to be kept from the public. If they take over the oilfields publicly and boost
oil infrastructure, the monthly take will rise considerably.
The oil fields on the east bank of the Euphrates produced the bulk of Syrian oil. If
production there was only 50% of Syrian production, the figures in dollar terms would still
be high.
200,0000 BPD would be just over half Syria pre war oil production, so 200,000 X say $40
per barrel brings the take up to $8 million per day. Not bad when its money for nothing.
William Gruff
Trump has made no effort or even noises to pull out of Tanf. I think he wants to continue
holding the Syrian border where he can. Denying the oil to Syria is a plus for him and that
also has the bonus of partly paying the cost of stationing the US along that border.
Zionism, oil, getting returns on military expenditure seems to be Trump's foreign policy or
as foreign policy is termed in the US 'War Policy"
"Keeping the oil" is also meant to send a political message that you-know-who is still in
charge here, a Carter Doctrine policy that has been in tatters recently.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 27 2019 18:51 utc | 60
Sure, that's also true. The NeoCon warmongers only got convincing very late in the game,
when US Special Forces were already withdrawing from most of Rojava, and could not be
stopped, except for this massively mounted late defence of the oil-fields. As the NeoCons
were resisting from the beginning, what was it that changed Trump's mind? Bibi sounds like
the answer, but I'm open to others.
"So why did Trump state so emphatically that Russia and China love U.S. presence
there???"
Reverse psychology. If Trump can get that narrative to fly then the mindless Russophobic
and Sinophobic brainwash victims in the US will start screaming for the US to get out. After
all, jello-brained Americans believe they must do the opposite of whatever China and Russia
think is good. The USA certainly cannot do anything that China or Russia might approve of,
right? So if they want us to stay then we have to leave.
Russia loves the US stealing Syria's oil. Listen, Russia delivered a beat down to murican
regime change policy the likes of which the world has never seen before. It is epic
humiliation beyond all endurance! The Syrian state is saved and the prospects of a Libya just
a few hours from Russia's border are now gone! The US is scared shittless to attack Iran head
on, so the status quo is returning to this region faster than murica's tiny brain can
process. So what to do? Grab the oil! Be a thug and criminal! No more pretense, just sin
proudly like the evil turd you are! Lol! And Russia can point at that turd and condemn it on
the world stage for the whole world to see. No excuses...no sympathy. Of course that bravado
wont last long. When push comes to shove, murica will fold like the dodgy piece of toilet
paper it is and go home. Be patient and enjoy the Evil Empire's death agony a while
longer...make popcorn...
The Redirection, Mar 5, 2007
Is the Administration's new policy benefitting our enemies in the war on terrorism?
By Seymour M. Hersh
To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in
effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has
cooperated with Saudi Arabia's government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are
intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has
also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of
these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant
vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda. . . here
InsurgeIntel, May 22, 2015
Pentagon report predicted West's support for Islamist rebels would create ISIS
Anti-ISIS coalition knowingly sponsored violent extremists to 'isolate' Assad, rollback 'Shia
expansion'
by Nafeez Ahmed
The newly declassified DIA [Defense Intelligence Agency -- headed by General Flynn!] document
from 2012 confirms that the main component of the anti-Assad rebel forces by this time
comprised Islamist insurgents affiliated to groups that would lead to the emergence of ISIS.
Despite this, these groups were to continue receiving support from Western militaries and
their regional allies. . .
here
Some more history on how Russia's changed the US attitude toward Syria oil shipments to
foreign customers. Specifically, whereas until 2015 US air force pilots were not given
permission to fire on ISIS oil shipments, that policy changed when Russia entered the war.
In September 2015, the Federation Council, Russia's upper house of parliament authorised
the Russian president to use armed forces in Syria.[9][10] Russia acknowledged that Russian
air and missile strikes targeted not only ISIL, but also rebel groups in the Army of Conquest
coalition like al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's Syrian branch, and even FSA.
On 30 September 2015, Russia launched its first airstrikes against targets in Rastan,
Talbiseh, and Zafaraniya in Homs province of Syria. Moscow gave the United States a one-hour
advance notice of its operations. The Homs area is crucial to President Bashar al-Assad's
control of western Syria. -- wiki here
CBSNEWS, Nov 23, 2015
U.S. airstrikes against ISIS target oil tanker trucks
Two airstrikes, the most recent over the weekend, have destroyed almost 500 tanker trucks
ISIS uses to smuggle oil and sell it on the black market.
By one estimate, these attacks have destroyed roughly half the trucks ISIS uses to bring in
$1 million a day in revenues.
Until now, the U.S. has not gone after the tankers for fear of killing the civilian drivers.
. . here
That's the first time (and probably the last time) ever that the US military had any
consideration for civilian casualties. But they were ISIS employees so. . .cut 'em some
slack. Still, only half the trucks were destroyed at that time (more were destroyed much
later).
"... The below analysis is provided by " Ehsani " -- a Middle East expert, Syrian-American banker and financial analyst who visits the region frequently and writes for the influential geopolitical analysis blog, Syria Comment . ..."
"... An M1 Abrams tank at the Udairi Range Complex in Kuwait, via Army National Guard/Military Times. ..."
Here's
Why Trump's "Secure Syria's Oil" Plan Will Prove Practically Impossible
by
Tyler Durden
Sat, 10/26/2019 - 23:30
0
SHARES
The below analysis is provided by "
Ehsani
" -- a Middle
East expert, Syrian-American banker and financial analyst who visits the region frequently and writes
for the influential geopolitical analysis blog,
Syria Comment
.
Much has been debated since President Trump tweeted that
"The U.S has secured the oil"
in Syria. Is this feasible? Does it make any sense? The below will
explain how and why
the answer is a resounding
NO
.
Al-Omar and Conoco fields are already secured by Kurdish-led SDF and U.S forces. Some of the oil
from these fields was being sold through third parties to Syria's government by giving it in crude
form and taking back half the quantity as refined product
(the government owns the
refineries).
Syria's government now has access to oil fields inside the 32km zone
(established
by the Turkish military incursion and subsequent withdrawal of Kurdish forces). Such fields can produce
up to 100K barrels a day and will already go a long way in terms of meeting the country's immediate
demand.
So the importance of accessing oil in SDF/U.S hands is not as pressing any longer.
SDF/U.S forces can of course decide to sell the oil to Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
but Syria's government now has control over the border area connecting Syria to KRG territory through
both Yaaroubia and Al-Mallkiya.
The Syrian government also now has control over supply of electricity. This was made possible by
taking control of the Tishreen and Furat dams.
Operating those fields needs electric power
supply and the state is now the provider.
Securing and operating these fields also entails paying salaries to those operating the fields.
International companies would be very reluctant to get involved without legal backing to operate
the fields.
"Securing the oil" therefore
can only mean preventing the Syrian state from accessing al-Omar/Conoco
only (not oil in the north)
. It's unlikely anything can be sold or transported.
And let's not forget "securing" this oil would need
ready air cover, and all for what?
SDF composition included Arab fighters and tribes who accepted Kurds in leadership since they had
American support and key cities in north. Many of those Arabs are already switching and joining the
Syrian Army.
"Securing" oil for benefit of the Kurds is likely to antagonize the Arab fighters
and tribes in the region.
Preventing rise of ISIS is likely to entail securing support of the region's Arabs and tribes more
than that of the Kurds. This Kurd/Arab issue is yet another reason why President Trump's idea of
"securing" the oil for the benefit of the Kurds just doesn't make sense nearly on every level
.
The psychopaths destroyed the last secular country in the ME. Same
with Lybia. Now all we get are extremists on all sides. Mossad doing
what it knows best, bringing chaos for the psychopaths.
By withdrawing from Northern Kurdistan and by making an exception
for the oil fields, Genius President Trump just told the world a number
of things:
To trust the U.S.A. as an ally is sheer stupidity
The "alternative media" theory that it is all about oil (and
possible gas) has been proven true
The U.S.A. is being ruled by a hobbyist who has no strategic
plans, replacing them with a "random walk" concept
Of course, the European allies (except Turkey) are still refusing
to learn from this experience. "Duck and cover until November 2020"
is their current tactics. Not sure if this is a good idea.
Turkey has learned to go their own ways, but I don't think it is
a good idea to create ever more enemies at one's borders. Greece,
Armenia, the Kurdish regions, Syria, Cyprus, not sure how their stance
is towards Iran. Reminds me of Germany before both World Wars. Won't
end well.
"America/The US", a label, is
actually just a location on a map and is not a reference to the actual
identities of those who start wars for profit.
Also it is hilarious to use that label as if an area of the planet
is or has attacked another area. Land can not attack itself, ever,
just as guns don't kill people, people kill people.
Trump is not claiming posession of oil in syria by leaving some
troops behind. Just as he did not declare war, nor start any EVER.
Every conflct on earth has it's roots with very specific individuals,
none of whom are even related to Trump.
Syria was a conflicting mess before he took office and he is dutifully
attempting to pull US soldiers out of a powder keg of nonsense he
wants no part of. Nor does any sane American want more conflict in
battles we can't afford, in countries we'll never even visit.
Like I said before, Trump can't just abruptly yank all our troops.
It's simply not that simple. And for those pretending he is doing
syria a disservice, I dare any one of you to go there yourselves and
see if you bunch of complete dipshits can do better. Who knows, maybe
you'll find the love of your life, ******* idiots.
First, the US invades Syria in violation of the Geneva Convention
on War making it an international criminal. Then it funds and equips
the most vile terrorists on the planet which leads to the killing
of thousands of innocent Syrians. And now it has decided to stay and
steal oil from Syria. The US is now the Evil American Empire owned
and run by crooks, gangsters and mass murderers. The Republic is dead
along with morality, justice and freedom.
Let's limit the culprits to: The Obama regime... and
not all the US. This is why these devils need to be brought
to trial and their wealth clawed out of their hiding places to
pay reparations to some of the victims.
The US has been an Evil American Empire for a long time, since
at least the Wilson administration, and Republican or Democrat...it
make little difference. World wars, the Fed, IRS, New Deal,
Korea, Vietnam, War OF Terror, assassinations, coups, sanctions,
Big Pharma, Seeds of Death and Big Agri...and the list goes
on and on. Please understand that America is not great and one
day all Americans will have to account for what their country
did in their name. If you believe in the Divine, then know that
their will be a reckoning.
The Obama regime was merely a continuation of the Chimpy Bush
regime, which was merely a continuation of the Clinton regime,
which was merely a continuation of the Pappy Bush regime, which
was merely a continuation... etc.
More chinks in the petrodollar armor will be the outcome of this. The credibility of murica is withering
away as every day passes. Iraqi pressure upon foreign troops there
to leave and/or drawdown further will also make this venture even
more difficult to manage.
The Kurds
may not be the smartest with regards to picking allies, but even they
may by now have learned that sticking to murica any longer will destroy
any semblance of hope for any autonomy status whatsoever once the
occupants have left. Likewise, the Sunni tribes around this area don't
want to become another Pariah group once things revert to normal.
Assad will eventually retake all his territory and
this is speeding up the process of eventual reconciliation in Syria.
They've spent far more on these wars than they've made back by stealing
other countries' resources. Trillions wasted in exchange for mere
billions in profit, to say nothing of the massive loss of life and
destruction incurred.
'The below analysis is provided by "
Ehsani
"
-- a Middle East expert, Syrian-American banker and financial analyst
who visits the region frequently and writes for the influential geopolitical
analysis blog,
Syria Comment
.'
this quote was my first red flag.
so POTUS outsmarts Erdongan, takes out ISIS leader BAGHDADI along
with Erdongan MIT agents meeting with him. sorry, Ehsani, i think
your full of sh*t.
CIA & MOSSAD LLC
friends ISIS is just the excuse the american
an israeli terrorists used and use in order to keep trying to remove
Assad from the Government.
They just can't accept defeat and absolute failure. What's worse
than an american/israeli terrorist destroyed ego?!
All info needs verification. US sources are not trustworthy including
anyone where money originates from the usual fake info instigators/
players.
POTUS is so misled by the deep state MIC /CIA/ FBI et al and their
willing fake media cohorts that he agreed to give the White Helmets
more public money for more fake movies, as has been properly proven
and widely reported.
Either they have taken control of his mind with a chip insert or
they have got his balls to the knife.
The false flags have been discredited systematically and only a
very brainwashed or a very frightened person would believe anything
from the same source until after a thorough scourge is proven successfully
undertaken.
It is evident that even the last hope department has been got at
by the money-power.
If they can do 9/11 and get away with it, as they have, then they
will stop at nothing to remain entrenched.
90% of oil is traded in U.S. dollars if that stops living standards
will drop in the U.S.. We dropped from 97% look how bad its now
with 7% imagine going down to 50% life would be unlivable
here.
...meanwhile, both according to
russia today
as well as the
(otherwise lying rag of a newspaper)
guardian
, the russian
government seems to take a different position to the views expressed
here by "a middle east expert".
russian state media is reporting that US troops are in the process
of taking control of syrian oil fields in the deir el-zour region
and have described such actions as "banditry". the crux of the matter
is this: if the US were not actually illegally taking control of Syrian
oil, then Russia would not be reporting this. Contrary to western
mainstream media, Russian sources have repeatedly shown themselves
to be factual.
Shame the "withdrawl" from Syria is tainted with "securing the oil".
US doesnt need that oil at all. So Orwellian! Unless the Kurds somehow
get rights to it.
Preventing rise of ISIS is likely to entail securing support of the region's Arabs and tribes more than that of the Kurds. This Kurd/Arab issue is yet another reason why President Trump's idea of
"securing" the oil for the benefit of the Kurds just doesn't make sense nearly on every level
.
Trump
is
securing
the
oil
not
for
the
Kurds
or
anything
in
the
middle
east-
his
doing
it
as
a response
to
the
media
backlash
he
received
when
he
announced
he's
abandoning
the
Kurds.
this is nonsense. thinking of the kurds and their interests is the absolutely last thing on trump`s mind: what counts for trump is how he is viewed by his voter base, no more, no less.
As is usually the case in theaters of combat, reality on the ground differs widely from the
sharp and clear lines that are presented to uninformed outside observers. Good case in point is
the state of Syrian oil. I am told by a well-informed source that the Syrian Democratic Forces
led by the Kurds have been selling much of the oil in northeast Syrian territory they
controlled until recently to the Syrian National Oil Company--the Assad government.
Some of that oil has also been sold to the Turks,,,
As we know, in the past, when ISIS controlled some of the Syrian oil, they were trucking it
across the border to Turkey and selling it to Erdogan's minions at a steep discount. The SDF
has continued doing that.
... Those tanker lines that Daesh was running into Turkey were done with the blessing of the
US. It was the resistance and in particular Russia that blew all that up.
What Harper meant to say is that some of the oil goes by tanker TRUCK from Turkey to Iran.
The oil thus trans-shipped to Iran is sold on as refined product to North Korea. The Turks
have been getting it at a very cheap prices from the SDF The Iranians add these products to
domestic production shipped east.
So, an oil-swap deal? Just like the currently defunct gas-swap deal that used to obtain
between Iran and Turkmenistan a few years back. Kurds and Turks acting like middlemen; how
very Middle-eastern!
The SDF/SNOC oil deal was negotiated by Russia 18 months ago. The SDF does NOT sell the oil
to the SNOC. Under the Russian deal, they get a share of the oil. The rest is turned over to
a broker from Raqqa who transports it in tanker trucks to Baniyas and Homs refineries.
If any oil is being diverted to Turkey, the it is the Raqqa brokers doing so. They are the
reportedly the brokers that used to deliver ISIS oil to Turkey via Erdogan's son-in-law.
... it was a deal negotiated by Russia with full agreement of Assad and his government and
the SNOC. My understanding is also that they did not choose the middleman from Raqqa.
Apparently he was the only one with tankers and with drivers who had no problem driving
through areas controlled by SDF, other areas controlled by SAA, and a few risky areas where
Daesh hijackings were a possibility.
Gosh! The UN General Assembly actually affirmed that Israel's continued occupation of the
Golan Heights is 'a violation of international law'!! But the USA voted against the
resolution. Does that mean the USA supports violations of international law, or that it
believes it has the right to decide what does or does not constitute violations thereof? My
vote is with option B. As others have pointed out, the USA loves to throw the weight of
'international law' about, often when there is no such backing and even more often without
getting any more specific than just 'international law'. The supposed annexation of Crimea is
a natural example – the USA and Ukraine monotonously refer to the transfer of Crimea to
the Russian Federation as such a violation, but do not specify what law was violated, instead
bleating about the Budapest Memorandum. The latter is not international law, and more
importantly, it assumed that conditions which prevailed at the time of signing would endure;
no provision was made for a bloody coup right next door, and nobody would be fool enough to
sign such an agreement as unconditional. Not to blame it all on the USA and Ukraine, either
– the USA's retinue of lickspittles who depend on it for trade and economic reasons are
happy to parrot it as a 'violation of international law'. That only shows you how easily an
action the west routinely lauds as the very essence of democratic principles – a
declaration of independence supported by a huge majority of the inhabitants – can be
made to seem 'a violation of international law': simply refuse to recognize the decision as
the will of the people, and characterize it as a forced decision made under duress. Because
America says the Crimean referendum was not legal or proper, Crimea should have been forced
against its will to remain a possession of Ukraine – the very and complete polar
opposite of the USA's customary prancing and whooping about 'freedom'.
I wouldn't want to be a Russian in Ukraine now, though. Hysteria will be high, and the
nationalists will be looking for an outlet for their frustration and hate.
Since a nation's territorial Waters extend 12 miles beyond its coast, doesn't that put the
entirety of the Ketch strait in Russian territorial waters ??
BTW What happens where the 12 mile extensions of two nations overlap???
The usual anti-Russian subject in "western" political circles use the incident to
demand more measures against Russia. Fronting the effort is the weapon industry lobbying
group Atlantic Council:
Anders Åslund, a resident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center,
said: "NATO and the United States should send in naval ships in the Sea of Azov to guarantee
that it stays open to international shipping."
Such action, Åslund said, "would be in full compliance with the UN Law of the Sea
Convention of 1982 and the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits of
1936."
Anders Aslund is listed as member of the "U.S. & Canadian Cluster" of the secret
influence operation by the British Foreign Office describe here two days ago. He is obviously
unable to read a map, sea chart, or UN convention. The Ukrainian attempt to pass through the
Kerch Strait without Russian consent is a breach of Article 7, 19 and 21 of the UN Law of the
Sea Convention (pdf):
Article 7: "Subject to this Convention, ships of all States, whether coastal or
land-locked, enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea."
Article 19-1: "Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good
order or security of the coastal State. Such passage shall take place in conformity with this
Convention and with other rules of international law."
Article 21-4: "Foreign ships exercising the right of innocent passage through the
territorial sea shall comply with all such [coastal state] laws and regulations and all
generally accepted international regulations relating to the prevention of collisions at
sea."
There will now be again a lot of noise in the media about the 'nefarious Russians' and
new demands for even more useless sanctions. But the legal case is clear. It was the
Ukrainian navy that willfully attempted to pass from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov
through Russian territorial waters without regard to the laws and regulations of the coastal
state. Russia was within its full rights to prevent the passage and to seize the Ukrainian
boats.
Dear God; Anders Aslund. Now he's an expert in maritime law. Might as well, I guess; he's a
chrome-plated clusterfuck as an economist – good on you, Anders, to make a career
change so late in life.
Anders Aslund is a wooden-head whose sole useful function is to give the veneer of
academia to agit-prop.
The Atlantic Council seems to attract many people who have quite sudden and dramatic mid-life
career changes, for example that former women's lingerie salesman turned investigative
journalist Eliot Higgins.
According to reports in both Israeli and Arabic regional media, Israel this past week was preparing
to expand major airstrikes against "Iran-backed" targets in Syria, but Moscow imposed its red
line.
The Independent
has
published a story describing that Russia's military in Syria
threatened to shoot down any
invading Israeli warplanes using fighter jets or their S-400 system
.
The
Jerusalem Post
, citing sources in the
UK
Independent (Arabia)
, writes just after the latest meeting in Sochi between Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin:
According to the report,
Moscow has prevented three Israeli airstrikes on
three Syrian outposts recently, and even threatened that any jets attempting such a thing would
be shot down, either by Russian jets or by the S400 Anti-aircraft missiles
. The source
cited in the report claims a similar situation has happened twice, and that during August,
Moscow stopped an airstrike on a Syrian outpost in Qasioun, where a S300 missile battery is
placed.
Netanyahu's hasty trip to meet with Putin on Thursday - even in the final days before Tuesday's
key election - was reportedly with a goal to press the Russian president on essentially
ignoring Israel's attacks in Syria.
According to the Russian source, Putin let Netanyahu know that his country will not allow any
damage to be done to the Syrian regime's army, or any of the weapons being given to it...
Israel sources cited by the Arabic newspaper described Netanyahu's attempts to persuade Putin
as
"a failure"
. This in spite of Netanyahu telling reporters after the meeting
that his relations with Moscow were stronger than ever.
Moscow is said to be particularly resistant given the Israeli military's recent spate of attacks
on targets in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria.
The Russian source said:
"Putin has expressed his dissatisfaction from Israel's
latest actions in Lebanon"
and even emphasized to Netanyahu that he "Rejects the
aggression towards Lebanon's sovereignty" something which has never been heard from him. Putin
further stated that someone is cheating him in regards to Syria and Lebanon and that he will not
let it go without a response. According to him, Netanyahu was warned not to strike such targets
in the future.
It could also be simply that Putin understands that Netanyahu, now desperate to extend his
political career to a record fifth term as prime minister as next week's elections loom, could be
ready to risk a major and very unnecessary Middle East conflagration in order to continue to appeal
to Israeli right wing and nationalist voters.
Say what you want about Putin, this guy has balls. I wish we had a
leader like him. it's been way too long we're being governed by
weak zio puppets pussies.
Netanyahu traveled to the
Black Sea resort to meet the Russian leader – just five days
before the election – in a move widely seen as an effort to
woo elder Russian-speaking immigrants.
The US and Israel are
discussing a mutual defense treaty that would further cement the
already "tremendous" alliance between the two countries, President
Donald Trump has revealed.
"I had a call today with Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss
the possibility of moving forward with a Mutual Defense Treaty,
between the United States and Israel, that would further anchor
the tremendous alliance between our two countries,"
Trump
tweeted.
And just two days ago, Israel was caught again places spy
devices in Wash. But today the POTUS is going to sign on for
sacrificing what's left of our sovereignty to Israel so they
can go around MENA pounding their chest and threatening
everyone.
https://www.israellobbyus.org/transcripts/1.1Grant_Smith.htm
Interesting body language/facials -- Nutty still with the smirk,
but VVP and background say a grave/serious word has gone out ...
similar as the Izzies bend to listen very carefully to the erect
and confident-looking Russkies ...
********'s over, Bibi, where
it goes from here depends on your nasty little country ... maybe
others in your region looking for 70-odd years payback for your
murders terrorism land-confiscation cruelty against those weaker
than your miserable selves.
********'s over, Bibi, where it goes from here depends on
your nasty little country
Not so fast, Israel will try not to step on Putin's tows but
it can't afford the Iranians to build that ring of missiles
around Israel. It's not that Israel does not have leverage too,
it can make things complicated for Putin, like one small bomb
on Assad's resident in Damascus.
... one small bomb on Assad's resident in Damascus.
You can certainly shoot out the ******** yourself,
Einstein.
Surely you must be aware that your namesake condemned the
founding of Israel in 1948, which has turned out to be the
all-round disaster he predicted. Not alone, many Jewish
voices round the world continue to condemn it. How
inconvenient for you and your bombs on Assad's house ... lol
...
"I am in favor of Palestine being developed as a
Jewish Homeland but not as a separate State. It seems
to me a matter for simple common sense that we cannot
ask to be given the political rule over Palestine
where two thirds of the population are not Jewish.
What we can and should ask is a secured bi-national
status in Palestine with free immigration. If we ask
more we are damaging our own cause and it is difficult
for me to grasp that our Zionists are taking such an
intransigent position which can only impair our
cause," Einstein said in a letter in 1946,
according to the
Shapell Manuscript Foundation.
'RT and the Jerusalem Post report that the Syrian government threatened to strike Ben
Grunion Airport if Israel violates its territory again. They also reiterated their moral and
sovereign right to maintain the Golan Heights and stop their annexation. Not sure where this
is headed but it looks rash and risky with all of the media pro-Israel and biased...'
Inveterate media bias cannot be an excuse for Syria to withhold from exercising legitimate
sovereign right to defend Syrian territory from unrelenting attacks especially those
targeting its international airport in Damascus and elsewhere. Media fealty to Israel is not
about to undergo an epiphany but Jaffari's warning is overdue and consistent with the policy
of engagement articulated in the E Magnier article I cited in a previous post.[
https://ejmagnier.com/2018/12/14/new-rules-of-engagement-between-syria-and-israel-as-russia-changes-its-position/].
No mater what Syria does or does not do will always to filtered through the MSM Israeli
prism. IMO, Syria is long overdue in delivering on its warnings.
It is rather significant that this is the first known statement by Syrian UN
Representative Dr Jafaari as reported by RT [ https://www.rt.com/news/449463-syria-threatens-israel-airport/]
which contains an explicit warning of military action in response to the latest Israeli
attack. I have met Dr Bashar on three separate occasions and recall that in 2015 he confided
to a small group of people at a social gathering that Qatari diplomats had offered him 3
million if he would split with Damascus. I found in him an honorable man of dignity and
principle.
Framing his statement and warning as reckless or 'rash' ignores the interminable
punishment and humiliation Syria has suffered following years of incurring hundreds of
Israeli acts of aggression. Since the October War Syria fought to recapture the Golan Heights
in 1973, it has not fired a single shot across the armistice lines. Israel obviously
interprets restraint as weakness. Zionist military superiority does not translate to
invincibility and if the conniving bully is not confronted in a manner which causes a condign
level of retribution, the cumulative damage and casualties he inflicts will only rise.
"... The Israelis lost big time from their IL-20 misadventure, but those losses will seem like childs play compared to their geostrategic losses from a repeat performance - that is if my interpretation is correct. ..."
It appears to be too early to say much about the latest Israeli attack, until more details
are released, but my inkling is of a lot in common with the IL-20 atrocity - namely that
the Israelis may have been deliberately hiding behind two civilian passenger jets to launch
their attack. If that is the case the Israelis can expect to be a gigantic loser.
From what I can gather it appears that 14 of the 16 the guided bombs were shot down
using Pantsir S1 and/or S200. If that is the case then it is not true to say that the S300
was not used, because the S300 is an integrated system which automatically chooses the most
appropriate means of response including S200/S125 etc and also including (as I understand)
the Pantsir. In the case of the S200 at least, the missiles will be guided to their targets
by the S300 radars and S300 control system.
The big question is the role of the two passenger jets and why their presence impeded
action against the Israeli F16's. That is where the parallels with the IL-20 come in. The
Russians are going to analyse this carefully and precisely before publishing
conclöusions - after that we can expect harsh action - certainly geostrategic and
maybe also kinetic.
The Israelis lost big time from their IL-20 misadventure, but those losses will seem
like childs play compared to their geostrategic losses from a repeat performance - that is
if my interpretation is correct.
By the way, I wouldn't take either Korybko or Cartalucci too seriously, both seem to me
to be pro-empire misinformation artists - or at the very least highly untrustworthy
sources.
Attacking Israeli aircraft over Lebanon? A no-go at the current state of affairs, as it
would most likely trigger an escalation neither Russia, Syria, Hezbollah and Iran want, at
least for the time being.
Posted by: Hmpf | Dec 26, 2018 11:08:26 AM | 26
This is precisely where the consequences of the Israeli timing my come in. If they
deliberately timed their offence with the landing of passenger jets in Beirut and Damascus,
thereby putting those jets at risk, Russia may be able to persuade Lebanon to allow them to
impose a total no-fly zone over Lebanon for all Israeli military aircraft and projectiles.
Check mate.
As for relations between Russia and Israel, don't for get that Russian Jews represent over
10% of the Israeli population. Roughly one million out of nine million. Putin obviously is
aware of this and may represent leverage for Israel. To use a favorite word of the pundits,
this "emboldens" the blue haired PM
All--Korybko, again, wrote hastily about something he fails to completely understand,
thereby making a fool of himself. Syrian air defenses are quite adequate without needing to
employ their S-300s. It's not clear if the changes to Syria's rules of engagement include
targeting AND shooting down Zionist jets over Lebanon outside of Syrian airspace, which
would employ S-300s. The following is Canthama's report from SyrPers posted @ 5 hours ago:
"Some latest news from Syria:
"1) Last night attack from the apartheid regime was very intense, used several vectors
such as cruise missiles, ground to ground missiles etc in total it was reported 64 IDF
missiles, this nbr can change as per SANA. only 7 went through the SyAAD defenses, which is
an incredible rate of hits.
"There were several targets, all on the IDF hit list targets released few weeks ago, but
only 1 target was hit SW of Damascus, causing material damages on a weapon depot, believed
to be one of the hundreds carrying ammo recollected from the very terrorists the apartheid
regime sent weapons to. SANA reported 3 SAA soldiers were injured during the explosion.
"It is believed the SAA fired retaliatory ground to ground missiles into occupied Golan
which caused the interruption of IDF attack. SANA is yet to comment on that, but there are
videos with Patriot attempts to intercept SAA missiles on the occupied Golan.
"2) There was not so ever any other casualty on this event, the web and news last night
was full of fake news and intentionally planted news.
"3) Yesterday was a tough day in the apartheid regime, Natanyahu dismantle the cabinet
for a new election and it seems the Likud party managed to hold him in power. Keep in mind
the corruption case against Natanyahu is strong and moving to the last phase, he is
desperate. On top of that the apartheid regime is completely against the US withdrawn from
Syria, placing Natanyahu at odds with Trump, thus the attack in Syria as a sign of defiance
and provocation to cause strong Syria/Russia's reaction, which it did not happen.
"4) SAA troops are in the very outskirt of Manbij, the deal is done between the MMC and
the Syrian Government, there are a mix of some key SAA armies involved, bringing to all the
Manbij pocket heavy tanks, missiles and thousands of soldiers. SyAAD has brought to
Kuweyres and Aleppo airbases AA to protect the skies in all northern Syria thus controlling
the events for the next months.
"Important to watch what is done in Qamishli and Hasaka airbases regarding AA defenses,
if it is beefed up in the next few days, it will mean some inroads were agreed.
"5) Early today, the SAA has moved NW of Aleppo and liberated the town of Malikiyah,
just northwest of Menagh airbase, this position was occupied by turkish backed terrorists.
There are reports local SDF forces worked with the SAA on this ops. Not clear why this is
happening, but it could be to divert the turkish backed terrorists that moved in force to
the area near Manbij. There is no huge strategic gain with it but to control a small road
that bypass the M5, but it could indicate advances toward Afrin and Azaz, but this is too
early and more info is needed."
What the Zionists did was to commit an obvious Terrorist Attack on a peaceful capital
city trying its best to celebrate Christmas that will further sully what remains of its
reputation, as if it could get any lower than it is now. Nutty's clearly terrorizing for
domestic reasons as there are Yellow Vest demonstrations and other political unrest
occurring in Zionistan daily. Hopefully, he will be the last in a long line of Zionists
Devils deserving a trial prior to dismemberment at The Hague.
It appears the lengthy, complicated back-room discussions between Damascus and Kurds has
reaped results that are now becoming visible. The holiday's over, so now it's time to
destroy the vermin. Iraq's PM is supposed to visit Assad for talks to coordinate several
key actions: approach to Kurds and Turks; action East of Euphrates; and Iraqi government
plans to deal with its Outlaw US Empire occupiers that are infiltrating from Syria. I've
peered into corners to see if Iran or Syria have made any comment about Trump's withdrawal,
but still nothing, which I entirely understand.
In any conventional conflict between Russia and the west, no matter how good the new
Russian weapons are, Russia will quickly run out of munitions. The West can overwhelm with
greater numbers of (poorer quality) weapons. This leads Russia into the position of
surrendering or having to escalate (to nuclear). So it is a dead-end to directly get into a
conflict with Israel as this too easily leads to the west mustering in support of Israel
and a direct confrontation between Russia and the West. Tactically, the way to deal with
Israel is to neutralise it's capabilities without resorting to direct confrontation and
ultimatums (unsatisfying as that may be).
This is supposed to complement the Syrian report I just posted but has yet to appear.
This provides the
reason why the Zionist attack on Damascus is an act of International Terrorism:
"The Israeli military put two civilian airliners in immediate danger, Igor Konashenkov,
the Defense Ministry spokesman, told reporters. 'Provocative acts by the Israeli Air Force
endangered two passenger jets when six of their F-16s carried out airstrikes on Syria from
Lebanese airspace.'"
Such behavior cannot be condoned for any reasons whatsoever, and ought to produce
an article 7 UNSC Resolution. Unfortunately, one Outlaw Nation protects the other Outlaw
Nation, so such a proper international response will not be forthcoming. The Moroccan
Terrorists are nothing compared to the Zionist and Outlaw US Empire's terrorists, and they
all ought to share a similar fate.
Was there another purpose behind the Israeli fighter jets hiding behind civilian aircraft?
What would be the international reaction or more specifically the US reaction, to Syrian
missiles downing a civilian commercial aircraft packed with civilian holiday passengers on
Christmas Day? Would the Israeli role be masked in well-honed outrage at "Assad the
butcher" again - without conscience - murdering defenseless civilians, necessitating
immediate retaliation on the part of virtue signaling Western forces? Would it validate the
cacophony from the Beltway regarding US withdrawal from Syria, vindicating Mattis'
resignation concerns?
First
report of Syrian retaliation I've seen today. No, it wasn't part of my detailed--6
paragraphs of Canthama's reporting--detained for who knows what as there were no links
within it as Korybko's essay was previously linked. Many things ongoing today as the
holiday's over, particularly movement around Manbij.
Elsewhere, Poroshenko ends martial law making him look weaker than ever. Arab League
going against advice of Outlaw US Empire to reinstate Syria. Ground broken in Korea by
North and South for construction of rail line linking them despite Outlaw Empire efforts to
forestall. Japan says to world: Fuck-off, we're going to kill whales regardless.
The purpose of a provocation is to lead the provoked into a rash act. There are many
posters on various sites who are guaranteed to condemn Putin for not taking (rash) action
in response to the latest provocation. I profoundly distrust such posters because they
appear to almost be acting in concert with the provocateur.
Today, Poroshenko announced the end of martial law. Poroshenko's plans to provoke
conflict with Russia and suspend elections appear to be effectively over. We can look
forward to new elections, a new President and an improved relationship with Ukraine. Where
would we be now if Putin had responded to Poroshenko's provocations as some would wish?
What would've been Trump's reaction if Syria had mistakenly downed a civilian airliner on
Christmas Day as the Israel's might've been hoping for?
Another round of missile attacks on Syria? Direct attack on Assad? Re-commit to the
occupation of Eastern Syria?
Whatever it might've been, we can be be sure that Americans and Europeans would've been
overwhelmingly supportive: those that were critical of Trump's pulling out of Syria and
those that were cheering his pulling out of Syria. United. Against. Assad.
And ready to face any counteraction by Assad or Putin. Together.
Still think Mattis' resignation was not a PR stunt?
"... Maybe I am overestimating the intelligence of MIC profiteers, but my impression is that those thieves know that their loot is only useful as long as they are alive. There is a lot of silly hostile talk against Russia and China, but have you noticed how the US military always makes sure that there are no direct confrontations with countries that can turn the US into radioactive dust? The profiteers want huge Pentagon budget to steal from, but not the war where they lose along with everyone else. ..."
@Z-man
Israel fears Iran, is my idea. Norman Finkelstein once stated that Israeli jews do not see
how there ever can be peace with the Palestinians 'after all we did to them'. Not all jews
are idiots. Forgot in which book I read that in the thirties a Zionist reached Palestine, and
saw that this was not the 'land without people for people without land'. He stated 'this is a
crime'.
The destruction and destabilisation of the ME, an Israeli plan, as far as I know.
In 1921 and later years there was the enormous population exchange, without any financial
compensation, between Turkey and Greece. To this day tensions exist between the two
countries.
Iran is one of the oldest civilisations. Twice, one might say even three time, the west
overthrew Iranian democracy. Iran knows of course quite well that the VS brought Saddam to
power so that he could subjugate Iran, that had rid itself of the USA puppet shah. Iran also
of course knows quite well Jewish power in the USA, Bush' s promise to AIPAC to destroy Iraq.
Will those leading Iran now ever trust the USA or Israel ?
So that Netanyahu and USA jewry now are in complete panic, who had expected it to be
otherwise ? Uri Avnery wrote 'the only language zionists understand is power. Is there a
problem, use power, if it does not help, use more power, if that also fails, use even more
power'.
There has never been any serious negotiation between Israel and its neighbors, or with the
Palestinians. About the Oslo negotiations a book appeared in Israel with the title 'How we
fooled the Palestinians'? Sharon answered any Arab League peace proposal with force, Jenin,
one of them, if my recollection is correct. There always was the idea of overwhelming more
military power, and of USA support.
Kissinger saved Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur war by flying over hundreds of the newest
USA anti tank weapons, wire guided, TOW. What will the USA do in case Israel is attacked ? Is
Netanyahu crazy enough to provoke an attack ?
Maybe I am overestimating the intelligence of MIC profiteers, but my impression is
that those thieves know that their loot is only useful as long as they are alive. There is a
lot of silly hostile talk against Russia and China, but have you noticed how the US military
always makes sure that there are no direct confrontations with countries that can turn the US
into radioactive dust? The profiteers want huge Pentagon budget to steal from, but not the
war where they lose along with everyone else.
As to the wall, it is one of the silliest projects ever suggested. Maybe that's why it was
so easy to sell it to the intellectually disadvantaged electorate. There are two things that
can stop illegal immigration. First, go for the employers, enact a law that fines them to the
tune of $50,000 or more per every illegal they employ. Second, enact the law that anyone
caught residing in the US illegally has no right to enter the US legally, to obtain asylum,
permanent residency, or citizenship for life, and include a provision that marriage to a US
citizen does not nullify this ban. Then enforce both laws. After that illegals would run out
of the country, and greedy employers won't hire any more. Naturally, the wall, even if built,
won't change anything: as long as there are employers trying to save on salaries, immigration
fees, and Social Security tax, and people willing to live and work illegally risking nothing,
no wall would stem the flow.
Unfortunately, no side is even thinking about real measures, both are just posturing.
"Yeah, Right, there's no sign of wavering though."
Agreed, there is no *sign* of wavering.
Indeed, the degree of bombast coming out of the Israeli establishment is now
deafening.
"The Golan Heights aren't even an issue today, that's how bad it's gotten."
Oh, I think that once the Syrian government wipes out the last of the jihadists and then
forces the US to withdraw from Syrian territory then you will find the Golan Heights will
become very much a hot potato.
After all, it will then be the last piece of Syrian territory that is not under the
control of the Syrians, and they'll be in no mood to be "intimidated" by the Israelis.
The Israelis will keep beating up on the Gaza Strip? Sure, they will.
And that will lull the Likud into thinking that the IDF is still a mighty fighting force,
sure, it will.
But the strategic situation for Israeli is getting worse and worse, to the point where the
Israelis dare not attack Lebanon for fear that the Syrians will take the opportunity to seize
the Golan Heights, and the Israelis dare not launch an attack into Syria lest Hezbollah
launch a counter-attack on the flank of that expeditionary force.
And either way there is this slight problem: the IDF is now a bunch of
fluffy-girls-blouses, and as such is likely to get its arse kicked in a fight with a real
army.
laguerre has it correct below: the IDF has been hollowed out, as has Israeli society as a
whole. They are riding for a fall, and when they do they will come down to earth with a
thud.
And nobody will be more surprised than them, which is when they will stampede for the
door.
"That said, the airforce is very good, but it's the only arm that works now."
Rather highlights what an "own goal" the Israelis scored when their jets hid behind that
Russia Ilyushin Il-20 plane.
They had been very successful in convincing the Russians not to hand over any S-300
missiles to the Syrians, and now the Syrians not only have them, but they have the most
up-to-date version.
Hatuey
I somewhat share your pessimism but not want to give in yet. The problem is that the way this
has been set and the ground rules have been laid is that the whole 'international community'
is complicit in racism and ethnic cleansing and that is why there will be no progress. The
parameters set are self contradictory, either you recognise that Palestinians have the right
to Palestine or you don't. Recognising that they have the right, at least an equal right,
negates the current wisdom that some people have more rights than others, and that this
trumps all other rights. This obvious point has become a taboo.
SA, if you think this about "right" or "rights" or notions of justice or anything like
that, you aren't even in the right solar system, never mind the right planet. That horse
bolted decades ago.
Nobody with any seriousness disputes Israel's criminality in any of this. And nobody with
any seriousness disputes that we are talking about the highest order of crimes either, ethnic
cleansing, war of aggression, collective punishment, etc.
This is about brute force, nothing else. The UN has been condemning Israel continually for
about 50 years and nothing has come of it because the US vetoes just about everything.
I realise what you say but nevertheless there is a conversation going on that is a total
cover up of reality and trying to justify the unjustifiable. This conversation has set the
limits of what can and can't be discussed.
UK, US, EU, NZ, Canada, Australia, all controlled by Zionist puppets. This is why Israel
get away with what they do and to an extent Saudi, who have 'the goods' on UK dealings.
It's about time the people of these nations took responsibility for the actions of their
'elected' MP's, especially those with 'dual nationality'.
In UK Corbyn is being attacked, not for his policies, which haven't been mentioned, but for
what he stands for. His promise to recognise Palestine, if he becomes PM, has them really
scared, as has his policy for nationalised banks, that lend Government [Sovereign] money to
Entrepreneurs [SME's] who currently cant get loans from banks, as they provide competition to
their Corporate friends. He also wants new bank rules, no doubt based on Glass Seagal.
He'll need to watch is back. Look what happened to Lincoln, Andrew Jackson, John F Kennedy
when they went against the money men!
Looks like time is working against Israelis in general and Netanyahu administration specifically... the nest
result of 10`8 is he supply of S300 by Russia, which is a real thereat to Isreli air supremacy, no matter what Israili
minister of offence said.
Alastair Crooke: "Belatedly, Israel has understood that it backed the wrong side in Syria --
and it has lost. It is not really in a position to demand anything. It will not get an
American enforced buffer zone beyond the Golan armistice line, nor will the Iraqi-Syrian border
be closed, or somehow "supervised" on Israel's behalf."
In the next ten years Israel
regional position might deteriorate. It antagonized Palestinians to the point of "no reconciliation".
And as US faced its own internal difficulties and divisions (and neocons in the USA now are look
mostly negatively by wide swats of population), Israel
might again face hostile Arab countries on the "never negotiated" borders. To find itself the country without negotiated
borders with the hostile encirclement, of a kind Washington tries to create for Russia, is the position that any diplomat
would like to avoid.
So it looks like the key idea of Zionism -- colonizing the land and displacing Palestinians much like Indians were
displaced in the USA or aborigines in Australia, in retrospect looks not that realistic. A lot of Jewish talent and Western
money was spend on a this variation of "Drang nach Osten"
Notable quotes:
"... It will not get an American enforced buffer zone beyond the Golan armistice line, nor will the Iraqi-Syrian border be closed, or somehow "supervised" on Israel's behalf. ..."
"... simply failed ..."
"... Israel's unexpected failure was deeply feared in the West, and in the Gulf too. A small, armed (revolutionary) movement had stood up to Israel -- against overwhelming odds -- and prevailed: it had stood its ground. This precedent was widely perceived to be a potential regional "game changer." The feudal Gulf autocracies sensed in Hizbullah's achievement the latent danger to their own rule from such armed resistance. ..."
"... And the war in Syria started to be mooted as the "corrective strategy" to the 2006 failure (as early as 2007) -- though it was only with the events following 2011 that the "corrective strategy" came to implemented, à outrance ..."
"... Syria -- with indisputable help from its allies -- seems about to prevail: it has stood its ground, against almost unbelievable odds. ..."
"... Syria's "standing its ground" represents a historic turning ..."
"... with each other ..."
"... Netayahu's "near panic" (if that is indeed what occurred) may well be a reflection of this seismic shift taking place in the region. Israel has long backed the losing side -- and now finds itself "alone" and fearing for its near proxies (the Jordanians and the Kurds). The "new" corrective strategy from Tel Aviv, it appears, is to focus on winning Iraq away from Iran, and embedding it into the Israel-U.S.-Saudi alliance. ..."
"... Daniel Levy has written a compelling piece to argue that Israelis generally would not subscribe to what I have written above, but rather: "Netanyahu's lengthy term in office, multiple electoral successes, and ability to hold together a governing coalition [is based on] him having a message that resonates with a broader public. It is a sales pitch that Netanyahu [has] 'brought the state of Israel to the best situation in its history, a rising global force the state of Israel is diplomatically flourishing.' Netanyahu had beaten back what he had called the 'fake-news claim' that without a deal with the Palestinians 'Israel will be isolated, weakened and abandoned' facing a 'diplomatic tsunami.' ..."
"... "Difficult though it is for his political detractors to acknowledge, Netanyahu's claim resonates with the public because it reflects something that is real, and that has shifted the center of gravity of Israeli politics further and further to the right. It is a claim that, if correct and replicable over time, will leave a legacy that lasts well beyond Netanyahu's premiership and any indictment he might face. ..."
"... "And then events took a further turn in Netanyahu's favor with the rise to power in the United States and parts of Central Eastern Europe (and to enhanced prominence elsewhere in Europe and the West) of the very ethno-nationalist trend to which Netanyahu is so committed, working to replace liberal with illiberal democracy. One should not underestimate Israel and Netanyahu's importance as an ideological and practical avant-garde for this trend." ..."
"... And this week, Hassan Nasrallah called on the Lebanese government " to devise a plan and take a sovereign decision to liberate the Shebaa Farms and the Kfarshouba Hills" from Israel. ..."
"... Will ethno-nationalism provide Israel with a new support base? Well, firstly, I do not see Israel's doctrine as "illiberal democracy," but rather an apartheid system intended to subordinate Palestinian political rights. And as the political schism in the West widens, with one "wing" seeking to delegitimize the other by tarnishing them as racists, bigots and Nazis, it is clear that the real ..."
"... The increasingly "not to be" constituency of the Middle East has a simpler word for Netanyahu's "ethnic nationalism." They call it simply Western colonialism. Round one of Chas Freeman's making the Middle East " be ..."
"... For all Netanyahu's bluster about Israel standing stronger, and having beaten back "what he had called the 'fake-news claim' that without a deal with the Palestinians 'Israel will be isolated, weakened and abandoned' facing a 'diplomatic tsunami,'" Netanyahu may have just discovered, in these last two weeks, that he confused facing down the weakened Palestinians with "victory" -- only at the very moment of his apparent triumph, to find himself alone in a new, "New Middle East." ..."
"... [For more on this topic, see Consortiumnews.com's " The Possible Education of Donald Trump. "] ..."
Belatedly, Israel has understood that it backed the wrong side in Syria – and it has
lost. It is not really in a position to demand anything. It will not get an American
enforced buffer zone beyond the Golan armistice line, nor will the Iraqi-Syrian border be
closed, or somehow "supervised" on Israel's behalf.
Of course, the Syrian aspect is important, but to focus only on that, would be to "miss the
forest for the trees." The 2006 war by Israel to destroy Hizbullah (egged on by the U.S., Saudi
Arabia -- and even a few Lebanese) was a failure. Symbolically, for the first time in the
Middle East, a technologically sophisticated, and lavishly armed, Western nation-state
simply
failed . What made the failure all the more striking (and painful) was that a Western
state was not just bested militarily, it had lost also the electronic and human intelligence
war, too -- both spheres in which the West thought their primacy unassailable.
The Fallout from Failure
Israel's unexpected failure was deeply feared in the West, and in the Gulf too. A small,
armed (revolutionary) movement had stood up to Israel -- against overwhelming odds -- and
prevailed: it had stood its ground. This precedent was widely perceived to be a potential
regional "game changer." The feudal Gulf autocracies sensed in Hizbullah's achievement the
latent danger to their own rule from such armed resistance.
The reaction was immediate. Hizbullah was quarantined -- as best the full sanctioning powers
of America could manage. And the war in Syria started to be mooted as the "corrective
strategy" to the 2006 failure (as early as 2007) -- though it was only with the events
following 2011 that the "corrective strategy" came to implemented, à outrance
.
Against Hizbullah, Israel had thrown its full military force (though Israelis always say,
now, that they could have done more). And against Syria, the U.S., Europe, the Gulf
States (and Israel in the background) have thrown the kitchen sink: jihadists, al-Qaeda, ISIS
(yes),
weapons , bribes, sanctions and the most overwhelming information war yet witnessed. Yet
Syria -- with indisputable help from its allies -- seems about to prevail: it has stood its
ground, against almost unbelievable odds.
Just to be clear: if 2006 marked a key point of inflection, Syria's "standing its
ground" represents a historic turning of much greater magnitude . It should be
understood that Saudi Arabia's (and Britain's and America's) tool of fired-up, radical Sunnism
has been routed. And with it, the Gulf States, but particularly Saudi Arabia are damaged. The
latter has relied on the force of Wahabbism since the first foundation of the kingdom: but
Wahabbism in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq has been roundly defeated and discredited (even for most
Sunni Muslims). It may well be defeated in Yemen too. This defeat will change the face of Sunni
Islam.
Already, we see the Gulf Cooperation Council, which originally was founded in 1981 by six
Gulf tribal leaders for the sole purpose of preserving their hereditary tribal rule in the
Peninsula, now warring with each other , in what is likely to be a protracted and
bitter internal fight. The "Arab system," the prolongation of the old Ottoman structures by the
complaisant post-World War I victors, Britain and France, seems to be out of its 2013
"remission" (bolstered by the coup in Egypt), and to have resumed its long-term decline.
The Losing Side
Netayahu's "near panic" (if that is indeed what occurred) may well be a reflection of
this seismic shift taking place in the region. Israel has long backed the losing side -- and
now finds itself "alone" and fearing for its near proxies (the Jordanians and the Kurds). The
"new" corrective strategy from Tel Aviv, it appears, is to focus on winning Iraq away from
Iran, and embedding it into the Israel-U.S.-Saudi alliance.
If so, Israel and Saudi Arabia are probably too late into the game, and are likely
underestimating the visceral hatred engendered among so many Iraqis of all segments of society
for the murderous actions of ISIS. Not many believe the improbable (Western) narrative that
ISIS suddenly emerged armed, and fully financed, as a result of former Iraqi Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki's alleged "sectarianism": No, as rule-of-thumb, behind each such well-breached
movement -- stands a state .
Daniel Levy has written a compelling piece
to argue that Israelis generally would not subscribe to what I have written above, but rather:
"Netanyahu's lengthy term in office, multiple electoral successes, and ability to hold together
a governing coalition [is based on] him having a message that resonates with a broader public.
It is a sales pitch that Netanyahu [has] 'brought the state of Israel to the best situation in
its history, a rising global force the state of Israel is diplomatically flourishing.'
Netanyahu had beaten back what he had called the 'fake-news claim' that without a deal with the
Palestinians 'Israel will be isolated, weakened and abandoned' facing a 'diplomatic
tsunami.'
"Difficult though it is for his political detractors to acknowledge, Netanyahu's claim
resonates with the public because it reflects something that is real, and that has shifted the
center of gravity of Israeli politics further and further to the right. It is a claim that, if
correct and replicable over time, will leave a legacy that lasts well beyond Netanyahu's
premiership and any indictment he might face.
"Netanyahu's assertion is that he is not merely buying time in Israel's conflict with the
Palestinians to improve the terms of an eventual and inevitable compromise. Netanyahu is laying
claim to something different -- the possibility of ultimate victory, the permanent and
definitive defeat of the Palestinians, their national and collective goals.
"In over a decade as prime minister, Netanyahu has consistently and unequivocally rejected
any plans or practical steps that even begin to address Palestinian aspirations. Netanyahu is
all about perpetuating and exacerbating the conflict, not about managing it, let alone
resolving it [The] message is clear: there will be no Palestinian state because the West Bank
and East Jerusalem are simply Greater Israel."
No Palestinian State
Levy continues: "The approach overturns assumptions that have guided peace efforts and
American policy for over a quarter of a century: that Israel has no alternative to an eventual
territorial withdrawal and acceptance of something sufficiently resembling an independent
sovereign Palestinian state broadly along the 1967 lines. It challenges the presumption that
the permanent denial of such an outcome is incompatible with how Israel and Israelis perceive
themselves as being a democracy. Additionally, it challenges the peace-effort supposition that
this denial would in any way be unacceptable to the key allies on which Israel depends
"In more traditional bastions of support for Israel, Netanyahu took a calculated gamble --
would enough American Jewish support continue to stand with an increasingly illiberal and
ethno-nationalist Israel, thereby facilitating the perpetuation of the lopsided U.S.-Israel
relationship? Netanyahu bet yes, and he was right."
And here is another interesting point that Levy makes:
"And then events took a further turn in Netanyahu's favor with the rise to power in
the United States and parts of Central Eastern Europe (and to enhanced prominence elsewhere
in Europe and the West) of the very ethno-nationalist trend to which Netanyahu is so
committed, working to replace liberal with illiberal democracy. One should not underestimate
Israel and Netanyahu's importance as an ideological and practical avant-garde for this
trend."
Former U.S. Ambassador and respected political analyst Chas Freeman wrote
recently very bluntly: "the central objective of U.S. policy in the Middle East has long been
to achieve regional acceptance for the Jewish-settler state in Palestine." Or, in other words,
for Washington, its Middle East policy -- and all its actions -- have been determined by "to
be, or not to be": "To be" (that is) -- with Israel, or not "to be" (with Israel).
Israel's Lost Ground
The key point now is that the region has just made a seismic shift into the "not to be"
camp. Is there much that America can do about that? Israel very much is alone with only a
weakened Saudi Arabia at its side, and there are clear limits to what Saudi Arabia can do.
The U.S. calling on Arab states to engage more with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi
seems somehow inadequate. Iran is not looking for war with Israel (as a number of
Israeli analysts have acknowledged ); but, too, the
Syrian President has made clear that his government intends to recover "all Syria" -- and all
Syria
includes the occupied Golan Heights. And this week, Hassan Nasrallah called on the
Lebanese government " to
devise a plan and take a sovereign decision to liberate the Shebaa Farms and the Kfarshouba
Hills" from Israel.
A number Israeli commentators already are saying that the "writing is on the wall" -- and
that it would be better for Israel to cede
territory unilaterally, rather than risk the loss of hundreds of lives of Israeli servicemen in
a futile attempt to retain it. That, though, seems hardly congruent with the Israeli Prime
Minister's "not an inch, will we yield" character and recent statements .
Will ethno-nationalism provide Israel with a new support base? Well, firstly, I do not
see Israel's doctrine as "illiberal democracy," but rather an apartheid system intended to
subordinate Palestinian political rights. And as the political schism in the West widens, with
one "wing" seeking to delegitimize the other by tarnishing them as racists, bigots and Nazis,
it is clear that the real America First-ers will try, at any price, to distance
themselves from the extremists.
Daniel Levy points out that the Alt-Right leader, Richard Spencer, depicts his movement as
White Zionism. Is this really likely to build support for Israel? How long before the
"globalists" use precisely Netanyahu's "illiberal democracy" meme to taunt the U.S. Right that
this is precisely the kind of society for which they too aim: with Mexicans and black Americans
treated like Palestinians?
'Ethnic Nationalism'
The increasingly "not to be" constituency of the Middle East has a simpler word for
Netanyahu's "ethnic nationalism." They call it simply Western colonialism. Round one of Chas
Freeman's making the Middle East " be with Israel" consisted of the shock-and-awe
assault on Iraq. Iraq is now allied with Iran, and the Hashad militia (PMU) are becoming a
widely mobilized fighting force. The second stage was 2006. Today, Hizbullah is a regional
force, and not a just Lebanese one.
The third strike was at Syria. Today, Syria is allied with Russia, Iran, Hizbullah and Iraq.
What will comprise the next round in the "to be, or not to be" war?
For all Netanyahu's bluster about Israel standing stronger, and having beaten back "what
he had called the 'fake-news claim' that without a deal with the Palestinians 'Israel will be
isolated, weakened and abandoned' facing a 'diplomatic tsunami,'" Netanyahu may have just
discovered, in these last two weeks, that he confused facing down the weakened Palestinians
with "victory" -- only at the very moment of his apparent triumph, to find himself alone in a
new, "New Middle East."
Perhaps Pravda was right, and Netanyahu did appear close to panic, during his
hurriedly arranged, and urgently called, Sochi summit.
* Alastair Crooke is a former British diplomat who was a senior figure in British
intelligence and in European Union diplomacy. He is the founder and director of the Conflicts
Forum.
ardent 19 minutes ago ( Edited ) remove Share link Copy Report flag
"Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, is an Israeli Mossad-trained operative whose
real name is Elliot Shimon, a *** who took courses in Islamic theology and Arabic Speech." -
Snowden
Old Poor Richard 49 minutes ago remove Share link Copy
Now how would Ed Snowden know this? Is he some kind of super h4x0r tapped into the Pegasus
mainframe?
ShakenNotStirred 42 minutes ago remove Share link Copy
I heard you have a bunch of Mossad agents below your bed. Check it out or you will be
"Mossaded" before the morning.
passingthroughtown 2 hours ago remove Share link Copy
Proving once again that the Saudis and Israelies have been working hand in glove for a
very long time. Is there any doubt about the connection between the two and what happened on
911?
But what is even more disturbing:
In recent days, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi and Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu have reached out to the Trump administration to express support for the
crown prince, arguing that he is an important strategic partner in the region, said people
familiar with the calls.
"Strategic partner" makes it all okay. This is merely a glimpse of what is coming in the
future. You ain't seen NOTHIN yet.
He–Mene Mox Mox 3 hours ago remove Share link Copy
Derezzed 3 hours ago ( Edited ) remove Share link Copy
" Israel is routinely at the top of the US' classified threat list of hackers along
with Russia and China [ ] even though it is an ally "
Our best allies ! " Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked the United States to stand by Saudi
Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS) in the wake of the Khashoggi case. "
The most morale people !
I bet they are behind ISIS too with their (((allies))) and the (((deep state))).
But hey isn't it conspirationnist and antisemitic to accuse them of anything ?
Because you know as the most " kind " and " human " people there needs to be
laws, censorship and repression, to protect them from being hated.
< 1% of the global population and they make the headlines 4/5 times a day.
Can only be bad luck and a cohencidence !
Dickweed Wang 3 hours ago remove Share link Copy
"Israel is routinely at the top of the US' classified threat list of hackers along
with Russia and China [ ] even though it is an ally"
Sorry Ed, IsraHell isn't an ally of the USA. It's a ******* parasite and it's well on its
way to killing the host.
alamac 4 hours ago remove Share link Copy
I guess Netanyahoo and KSM love each other because they have a common hobby: Killing
Arabs.
RagnarRedux 4 hours ago ( Edited ) remove Share link Copy
ISRAEL FLAGGED AS TOP SPY THREAT TO U.S. IN NEW SNOWDEN/NSA DOCUMENT (2007)
Former U.S. Officials Say CIA Considers Israel To Be Mideast's Biggest Spy Threat
(2012)
U.S. intelligence agents stationed in Israel report multiple cases of equipment
tampering, suspected break ins in recent years; CIA officials tell the Associated Press that
Israel may have leaked info that led to the capture of an agent inside Syria's chemical
weapons program.
What is really troubling, is Kushner's involvement in the affair. He would have been
debriefed once he returned to the U.S., not only by his father-in-law, Trump, but the intel
community too. You can bet every dollar you have that both the Israelis and Saudis were using
NSO surveillance on him. What is even more troubling, it appears that the action taken to
"neutralize" Jamal Khashoggi, more than likely had the blessings of Washington, since Kushner
met with the Saudis prior to the killing. It really makes one wonder, since Kushner declined
to discuss the state of his relationship with Prince Mohammed.
GRDguy 4 hours ago remove Share link Copy
"licensed only to legitimate government agencies"
That's the problem.
There are no legitimate government agencies any more.
"Informed sources said: "Tel Aviv and Moscow have never ceased their regular coordination
to monitor and avoid air incidents over the Levant. The downing of the Russian IL-20 and the
death of all its 15 crewmen forced Israel to communicate its belligerent intentions much
ahead of time to Russia, to put its jets and personnel in safety. Indeed, it was the downing
of the IL-20 that speeded up Russia's delivery of the long-awaited S-300 to Syria.
Although Russia possesses high-frequency VHF, tracking systems and radar capable of
detecting the F-35 and making it visible, it is another matter to shoot it down with the
S-300. Russia's answer to this theory? "Let the Israelis test our system and we shall see the
results". (LOL!!!) BTW ..In consideration of certain Stooges-who know who they are- I will
restrict my use of "LOL" !!!!!!
However, Israel can fly low, violating Lebanese airspace and avoiding Syrian radar so as
to hit objectives in Syria from afar. To avoid this only too plausible scenario, Syria needs
to establish a missile protected radar coverage on the eastern chain of mountains on its
border with Lebanon, so as to be able to "see" all Israeli jets and the air movement above
Lebanon and Israel at all times."
Low-level coverage for the S-300 is 25 meters. I don't think you will find too many Israeli
pilots willing to fly that low for a full intercept mission, and the attacking aircraft
itself cannot see shit at that altitude. The most basic version of the missile can reach out
and tap your ass at 47 km at that altitude, in flat terrain.
http://aviationweek.com/site-files/aviationweek.com/files/uploads/2015/07/asd_08_06_2015_dossier.pdf
Although the Israelis' Popeye cruise missile can be launched from ground level and has a
maximum range about equivalent to that of the basic SA-10, its range at that altitude is
basically line-of-sight unless it is receiving external targeting data from an airborne
platform which is at a much higher altitude and can see farther. Unfortunately, that
re-introduces the original problem.
Additionally, this set of circumstances is tailor-made for a technique known as 'SAMbush',
in which the S-300 radar goes active to make the attacking aircraft dive for cover taking
them into the coverage of a different system (such as Pantsir) which is optimized for
low-level detection and engagement, but whose location was unknown up to that moment. Jen
alludes to something like this.
As someone mentioned elsewhere, the real test is for Israel to come on out and give it a
try. You gotta ask yourself a question – do I feel lucky?
"... For otherwise, why did the Israelis do that? Were they just careless and brutal, as is their wont? They didn't give a damn about the Russians, and considered them a lesser breed, whose life is of little importance. This is a possible reading, quite consistent with their general attitude to strangers considered to be children of a lesser God ..."
There was a lull when the disaster of the downed plane completely disappeared from media,
Russian or Western. It was not mentioned by the New York Times , it was not mentioned
by the Russian newspapers. And after that, unexpectedly, the Russian Defence Minister Mr Shoygu
made his announcement. Russia responded adequately, closing the sky over Syria, or at least
over Western Syria, and activating its powerful GPS-jamming system off the Syrian coast. Israel
has lost its right to bomb Syria at will.
The Russians said it will take them two weeks to deliver, install and make the system
operative. I have heard that the system of up to eight S-300 had already been delivered by
massive airlift a few days ago, with cargo planes landing in Syria every few minutes. Probably
two weeks will be needed to install and activate the system.
Now in Israel the response was of two kinds. The hot heads said Israel is not worried by
S-300; they know how to deal with it, and if necessary, Israeli commandos will come and
sabotage the system just in time for a massive air attack by Israeli bombers. Sensible people
said Israel should try to repair relations with the Russian military. The Russians did a lot of
what the Israelis asked them for, including removal of Iranian forces from the vicinity of
Israeli borders (rather, armistice lines). A thorough investigation of the air disaster may
uncover the mistakes and convince the Russians that they aren't likely to occur again.
Netanyahu sounded like he was trying to minimise the strife with the Russians. After meeting
with President Trump in New York, he said that he came with specific requests "and I received
everything I wanted from him [Trump]. Our goal is to preserve the connection with Russia and on
the other hand to defend Israel's security against these threats."
So, for good or bad, Israel is not going to break relations with Russia, and Russia is not
going to go further, beyond sealing Syria's sky for Israeli raids. If Israeli leadership will
keep its fingers away from Syria, things may cool down. Otherwise, the results will be quite
unpredictable.
In Israel, there aren't many people at the top, apart of Netanyahu and Lieberman, who
cherish their country's involvement with Russia. For Israelis, Putin is one of many unsavoury
leaders from Idi Amin to Orban their country has to play ball with. Russia is not popular with
ordinary Israelis who prefer America or Germany. A lot of Israelis will be pleased with breakup
of this connection. Immediately after the Russian decision had been announced, Haaretz had made
its feelings clear: "In recent years, Russia has been caught lying or spreading disinformation
about its role in a number of incidents, the most recent being its involvement in the U.S.
presidential elections, the poisoning of the former Russian agent Sergei Skripal and his
daughter in Britain, and the invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. So it's hard to believe
that anyone but Syria and Iran will adopt the Russian version of last week's events." This is
not a way one's partner is usually described.
More conspiratorially minded Israelis opined that beyond downing of the Il, there was an Air
Force plot against Netanyahu and Lieberman who are unpopular within the top echelon of IDF.
Others say it was an American Secret Service plot to undermine Russian-Israeli connection.
For otherwise, why did the Israelis do that? Were they just careless and brutal, as is their
wont? They didn't give a damn about the Russians, and considered them a lesser breed, whose
life is of little importance. This is a possible reading, quite consistent with their general
attitude to strangers considered to be children of a lesser God.
On the other hand, it is possible that the whole Israeli raid had been staged to down the
reconnaissance plane and to leave the Russians without its real-time intelligence data. In
1967, the Israelis bombed and sunk the USS Liberty , an electronic spy ship, the then
equivalent of Il-20, for they did not want to have foreign eyes and ears in the area. But then,
there was an ongoing full-scale war between Israel and Egypt, and the USS Liberty had
been attacked just before the planned Israeli invasion of the Syrian Golan Heights.
Could it be that Israelis expected an attack by France, England and the US upon Syria on
that night, an attack that did not materialise thanks to the Russian-Turkish agreement on
Idlib? There was a British plane and a French frigate in the vicinity, and a whole lot of
American ships.
The agreement on Idlib was a very important event, though Il-20 displaced it out of our
collective memory. Putin and Erdogan reached a working compromise, thus avoiding almost
unavoidable large scale hostilities. The White Helmets had already prepared a film with staged
chemical attack upon Syrian children, but the agreement had made the attack improbable in the
first place. It is possible that the American coalition assault had been postponed in the last
moment, when the Russian plane had been already downed.
However, all is well that ends well. Russian decision to create practically a no-fly zone is
a good decision, good for all. It is good for Russians as they learned that their
Commander-in-Chief can make strong decisions. It is good for Syria, as they will suffer less of
the Israeli bombardments. And it is really good for Israel, as this naughty child, a spoiled
brat, a darling of America had to be forbidden to bother neighbouring children. The automatic
missile defence system will provide a threat of spanking. The kid had been told that he is not
allowed to kill neighbours. With its excessive aggressiveness multiplied by impunity, Israel
has been spoiled, as anybody would. With this block, Israel can still become a mensch
, and for this chance, thank you, Russia.
Will Tel-Aviv use this chance? The US will try to frustrate the Russian taming of Israel.
John Bolton and Mike Pompeo already declared that no one may interfere with Israel's divine
right to freely bomb Syria. Will the Israeli lobby in America be able to neutralise Moscow's
decision and unhinge Israeli soul once again? Will they convince Putin to postpone his decision
like they did in April, and a few years ago? I do not think so.
We can congratulate the leadership of Russia on the consistent, justified and well-balanced
decision that may yet tame the Jewish shrew.
"... Remember downed in November 2015, the Turkish F-16 our su-24? After all, one of the main reasons for this is that no one warned the crew about the presence and possible attack by its Turkish fighter in the vicinity due to the lack of control of airspace in the area and due to this our bomber was not covered by fighters, when it needed such a protection. ..."
"... Why was there no control of airspace over the Mediterranean sea? Why Israeli fighter were not discovered, why the Fight control center did not issue the command to the crew of the Il-20 immediately go in the direction of the Cyprus and wit for then of Israeli attack? ..."
"... Yes, periodically A-50 appear in Syria. But only periodically. And because of this, our planes are shot down and pilots are killed. ..."
For almost three years, I have been publicly asking the same questions: "Why is Syria still
not created a continuous radar field? Where are our aircraft AWACS (long-range radar detection
and control) type A-50 (a-50U), and even more so A-100? Why are they not" hanging " around the
clock over the middle East region, as do the United States and Israel?
Why do our "sworn partners" have full information about the air situation over the middle
East region, and we are fighting there with our eyes closed? Why are our bombers, transporters
and reconnaissance planes not covered by our fighters?" After all, as a result we suffer
losses.
Remember downed in November 2015, the Turkish F-16 our su-24? After all, one of the main
reasons for this is that no one warned the crew about the presence and possible attack by its
Turkish fighter in the vicinity due to the lack of control of airspace in the area and due to
this our bomber was not covered by fighters, when it needed such a protection.
And yesterday's death of Il-20 and 14 people of his crew? Today, the Russian defense
Ministry tells us tales that Israeli fighters hided in a radar footprint of Il-20, attacking
Latakia, and so the Syrians shot down our plane. Why wasn't the Il-20 was not protected by our
fighters?
Why was there no control of airspace over the Mediterranean sea? Why Israeli fighter
were not discovered, why the Fight control center did not issue the command to the crew of the
Il-20 immediately go in the direction of the Cyprus and wit for then of Israeli
attack?
Yes, periodically A-50 appear in Syria. But only periodically. And because of this, our
planes are shot down and pilots are killed.
Why today our "partners" are armed with weapons of the XXI century, and we are forced to
look at it with envy and use the methods of detection of air targets used in 40-50th of the
last century?
Who of our military leaders was responsible for the death of Oleg Peshkov in November 2015?
Which of them will be responsible for yesterday's death of 14 Il-20 crew?
Unfortunately, apart from the next victorious speeches about the world's best weapons and
the world's strongest army, about the victory over terrorism on the far borders, we are
unlikely to hear anything.
If
Russia shot down Israeli aircraft or bombed the airbase from which they took off, or even
obliterated Israel, America would do nothing but bitch and complain. The American military does
not want a war with Russia, because they know they cannot win a conventional war with Russia. I
would go so far as to say that even if Russia sank American warships including an aircraft
carrier America would not go to war.
America does not go to war with countries that have nuclear weapons and the means to deliver
them to the continental United States. That is why she would bend over backwards to prevent a
war with countries like Russia, China or North Korea, and the reason these countries need not
fear America. The prevention of nuclear war is the underlying premise of American foreign
policy. It has been since the nuclear age began. America would only use its nuclear weapons if
the American mainland is hit with nuclear weapons.
America would accept the loss of hundreds or even thousands of its servicemen rather than
have the continental USA turned into a wasteland.
Sorry, not so sure I'd agree. USA/Israel/NATO would love for Russia to lash out against
Israel for a provocation such as this Ilyushin 20 downing; but as the author suggests Russia
knows it could not withstand the combined forces of NATO/Israel/USA in the Syrian theatre.
Russia would not stand a chance.
I would agree with you that the USA has historically only attacked much weaker foes: Viet
Nam, Iraq, Libya, Syria etc. But recently there has been a shift in US military I've read
about, i.e. revisionist powers are now the main focus instead of 'war on terror'. With the
stranglehold 'declare war!' sanctions USA will crush Iran with this November, it means that
there will most definitely be ensuing hot war with Iran, probably early next year. What
happened to Syria will next happen in Iran.
Once Iran is reduced to rubble with US/Israel trained and equipped ISIS proxy armies, the
US and NATO will start destabilising actions along Russia's southern borders, i.e. Caspian
Sea and Georgia. Their plan is to use the same Arab Islamist proxies and/or Chechen Arabs to
start terror attacks in souther Russian provinces, i.e. Grozny, Derbent, Dagestan oblast.
USA/NATO/Israel will try to chip away at Russia's southern provinces using same methods used
in Syria, weaken and balkanize it. This is why Putin is trying so hard to stop them in
Syria.
What seems very significant, apart from this long late upgrade to Syrian air defenses, is
news from the area that Russia had rejected the request by Israel for the bombing raid near
Latakia. Seems Netanyahou decided to ignore Russia and go ahead with the mission. This could
be very significant in changing rules of cooperation between them.
"... "from which weapons-manufacturing systems were supposed to be transferred to Iran and Hezbollah." ..."
"... The Israelis for their part were using four F-16 fighter bombers to stage a surprise night attack on several sites near Latakia, close to the airbase being used by the Russians. They came in from the Mediterranean Sea and clearly were using the Russian plane to mask their approach as the Ilyushin 20 would have presented a much larger radar profile for the air defenses. The radar systems on the F-16s would also have clearly seen the Russian plane. ..."
"... There was also a back story. The Israelis and Russian military had established a hotline, similar to the one that is used with the U.S. command in Syria, precisely intended to avoid incidents like the Ilyushin shoot-down that might escalate into a more major conflict. Israel reportedly used the line but only one minute before the incident took place, leaving no time for the Russian plane to take evasive action. ..."
"... The Russian Ministry of Defense was irate. It saw the exploitation of the intelligence plane by the Israelis as a deliberate high-risk initiative. It warned "We consider these provocative actions by Israel as hostile. Fifteen Russian military service members have died because of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military. This is absolutely contrary to the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership. We reserve the right for an adequate response." ..."
"... Aggressive war directed at a non-threatening country is the ultimate war crime as defined by the Nuremberg Tribunals that followed after the Second World War, yet the United States and its poodles Britain and France have not so much as squeaked when Israel kills civilians and soldiers in its surprise attacks against targets that it alone frequently claims to be linked to the Iranians. Washington would not be in much of a position to cast the first stone anyway, as it is in Syria illegally, bombs targets regularly, to include two major cruise missile strikes, and, on at least one occasion, set a trap that reportedly succeeded in killing a large number of Russian mercenaries fighting on the Syrian government side. ..."
"... There is, of course, an alternative explanation for the Israeli action. Netanyahu might have considered it all a win-win either way, with the Russian plane masking and enabling the Israeli attack without consequence for Israel or, perversely, producing an incident inviting retaliation from Moscow, which would likely lead to a shooting war with the United States after it inevitably steps in to support Israel's government. In either case, the chaos in Syria that Israel desires would continue and even worsen but there would also be the potential danger of a possible expansion of the war as a consequence, making it regional or even broader. ..."
"... It's the same old story. Israel does risky things like attacking its neighbors because it knows it will pay no price due to Washington's support. The downing of the Russian plane through Israeli contrivance created a situation that could easily have escalated into a war involving Moscow and Washington. What Israel is really thinking when it seeks to create anarchy all around its borders is anyone's guess, but it is, to be sure, in no one's interest to allow the process to continue. It is past time for Donald Trump to fulfill his campaign promise to pull the plug on American engagement in Syria and terminate the seemingly endless cycle of wars in the Middle East. ..."
"... Syria and Israel are still "officially" at war. No peace treaty has ever been signed between them after the 1973 war. ..."
"... Bolton and Pompeo have really excelled themselves over this. Been almost a blackout on reporting over this, at least after initial reporting of the incident. A major world leader slapping down Israel is not something the media wish people to see, might get the wrong idea. ..."
"... Not only that, but the IDF LIED to Russia, stating they were going to attack targets in N. Syria, not around Latakia. ..."
"... It appears that French frigate did fire on Syria, in the hopes that Russia would respond, then Macaroni would cry out to NATO for help under Article 5, which says, "An attack against one is an attack against all" and off we'd go to who knows where, maybe WWIII. ..."
"... How, I asked Fort Russ to explain, did the monsieurs on the French tin can know that Russia wouldn't shoot back and send them all to Davy Jones' Locker? Fort Russ' response? It deleted my comment rather than defend its claim. I'm through with Fort Russ. ..."
"... Trump's infamous campaign slogan of MAGA quickly mutated into MIGA which is the originally intended version anyways. ..."
"... France a real FUKUS country ( France -UK-US ) ..."
"... The French destroyed Libia https://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/06/28/hillary-libya/ ..."
"... There are French colonial troops in 5 african countries https://www.businessinsider.com/frances-military-is-all-over-africa-2015-1?IR=T ..."
"... France steals about 400.000 million euros per year from African ex-colonies with their currency, the CFA franc ( Communnaute Francophone Africaine, currency ) https://africasacountry.com/2018/06/its-time-to-end-the-cfa-franc ..."
"... Never underestimate French colonialism ..."
"... One might as well ask, why were the French on the scene in the first place? In the scenario being discussed here, the French did not shoot for self defence, but because they were told to. Macron would be the perfect lapdog for the job. I agree Macron being the perfect lapdog for the job. I nevertheless find the scenario on Fort-Russ unlikely because of the relative positions of the actors, if they were their true positions, when the Russian plane was hit. ..."
Israel is, of course, claiming innocence , that
it was the Syrians who shot down the Russian aircraft while the Israeli jets were legitimately
targeting a Syrian army facility "from which weapons-manufacturing systems were supposed to
be transferred to Iran and Hezbollah." Seeking to undo some of the damage caused, Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly telephoned Russian President Vladimir Putin to
express his condolences. He also sent his air force chief to Russia on Thursday to provide a
detailed report on what had occurred from the Israeli perspective.
But that story, however it will be spun, is inevitably only part of the tale. The narrative
of what occurred is by now well established. The Russian aircraft was returning to base after a
mission over the Mediterranean off the Syrian coast monitoring the activities of a French
warship and at least one British RAF plane. As a large and relatively slow propeller driven
aircraft on a routine intelligence gathering mission, the Ilyushin 20 had no reason to conceal
its presence. It was apparently preparing to land at its airbase at Khmeimim in Syria when the
incident took place. It may or may not have had its transponder on, which would signal to the
Syrian air defenses that it was a "friendly."
Syrian air defenses were on high alert because Israel had attacked targets near Damascus on
the previous day. On that occasion a Boeing 747 on the ground that Israel claimed was
transporting weapons was the target. One should note in passing that Israeli claims about what
it is targeting in Syria are never independently verifiable.
The Israelis for their part were using four F-16 fighter bombers to stage a surprise night
attack on several sites near Latakia, close to the airbase being used by the Russians. They
came in from the Mediterranean Sea and clearly were using the Russian plane to mask their
approach as the Ilyushin 20 would have presented a much larger radar profile for the air
defenses. The radar systems on the F-16s would also have clearly seen the Russian plane.
The Israelis might have been expecting that the Syrians would not fire at all at the
incoming planes knowing that one of them at least was being flown by their Russian allies. If
that was the expectation, it proved wrong and it was indeed a Syrian S-200 ground to air
missile directed by its guidance system to the larger target that brought down the plane and
killed its fourteen crew members. The Israelis completed their bombing run and flew back home.
There were also reports that the French frigate offshore fired several missiles during the
exchange, but they have not been confirmed while the British plane was also reportedly circling
out of range though within the general area.
There was also a back story. The Israelis and Russian military had established a hotline,
similar to the one that is used with the U.S. command in Syria, precisely intended to avoid
incidents like the Ilyushin shoot-down that might escalate into a more major conflict. Israel
reportedly used the line but only one minute before the incident took place, leaving no time
for the Russian plane to take evasive action.
The Russian Ministry of Defense was irate. It saw the exploitation of the intelligence plane
by the Israelis as a deliberate high-risk initiative. It warned "We consider
these provocative actions by Israel as hostile. Fifteen Russian military service members have
died because of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military. This is absolutely contrary
to the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership. We reserve the right for an adequate
response."
Russian President Vladimir Putin was more conciliatory , saying the
incident was a "chain of tragic circumstances." He contrasted it with the Turkish shoot-down of
a Russian warplane in 2015, which was planned and deliberate, noting that Israel had not
actually attacked the Ilyushin. Though the Putin comments clearly recognize that his country's
relationship with Israel is delicate to say the least, that does not mean that he will do
nothing.
Many Israelis are emigres from Russia and there are close ties between the two countries,
but their views on Syria diverge considerably. As much as Putin might like to strike back at
Israel in a hard, substantive way, he will likely only upgrade and strengthen the air defenses
around Russian troop concentrations and warn that another "surprise" attack will be resisted.
Unfortunately, he knows that he is substantially outgunned locally by the U.S., France, Britain
and Israel, not to mention Turkey, and a violent response that would escalate the conflict is
not in his interest. He has similarly, in cooperation with his Syrian allies, delayed a major
attempt to retake terrorist controlled Idlib province, as he works out a formula with Ankara to
prevent heavy handed Turkish intervention.
But there is another dimension to the story that the international media has largely chosen
to ignore. And that is that Israel is now carrying out almost daily air attacks on Syria, over
200 in the past 18 months, a country with which it is not at war and which has not attacked it
or threatened it in any way. It justifies the attacks by claiming that they are directed
against Iran or Hezbollah, not at Syria itself. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted
that any peace settlement in Syria include the complete removal of Iranians, a demand that has
also been repeated by the United States, which is also calling for the end to the Bashar
al-Assad government and its replacement by something more "democratic."
Aggressive war directed at a non-threatening country is the ultimate war crime as defined by
the Nuremberg Tribunals that followed after the Second World War, yet the United States and its
poodles Britain and France have not so much as squeaked when Israel kills civilians and
soldiers in its surprise attacks against targets that it alone frequently claims to be linked
to the Iranians. Washington would not be in much of a position to cast the first stone anyway,
as it is in Syria illegally, bombs targets regularly, to include two major cruise missile
strikes, and, on at least one occasion, set a trap that reportedly
succeeded in killing a large number of Russian mercenaries fighting on the Syrian
government side.
And then there is the other dimension of Israeli interference with its neighbors, the secret
wars in which it supports the terrorist groups operating in Syria as well as in Iran. The
Netanyahu government has armed the terrorists operating in Syria and even treated them in
Israeli hospitals when they get wounded. On one occasion when ISIS accidentally fired into
Israeli-held territory on the Golan Heights it subsequently apologized. So, if you ask who is
supporting terrorism the answer first and foremost should be Israel, but Israel pays no price
for doing so because of the protection afforded by Washington, which, by the way, is also
protecting terrorists.
There is, of course, an alternative explanation for the Israeli action. Netanyahu might have
considered it all a win-win either way, with the Russian plane masking and enabling the Israeli
attack without consequence for Israel or, perversely, producing an incident inviting
retaliation from Moscow, which would likely lead to a shooting war with the United States after
it inevitably steps in to support Israel's government. In either case, the chaos in Syria that
Israel desires would continue and even worsen but there would also be the potential danger of a
possible expansion of the war as a consequence, making it regional or even broader.
It's the same old story. Israel does risky things like attacking its neighbors because it
knows it will pay no price due to Washington's support. The downing of the Russian plane
through Israeli contrivance created a situation that could easily have escalated into a war
involving Moscow and Washington. What Israel is really thinking when it seeks to create anarchy
all around its borders is anyone's guess, but it is, to be sure, in no one's interest to allow
the process to continue. It is past time for Donald Trump to fulfill his campaign promise to
pull the plug on American engagement in Syria and terminate the seemingly endless cycle of wars
in the Middle East.
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National
Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation that seeks a more interests-based
U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is www.councilforthenationalinterest.org,
address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is [email protected]
.
"It is past time for Donald Trump to fulfill his campaign promise to pull the plug on
American engagement in Syria and terminate the seemingly endless cycle of wars in the Middle
East."
Orange Clown's a liar whose presidential campaign was a calculated bait and switch fraud
from the beginning. Our presidential poseur obviously had no intention of following through
on most of his pre-election intimations and campaign promises.
Syria refused "land for peace" initiative in 1967 where it would get back Golan in return for
peace. They never established diplomatic relations and are technically in the state of war.
"The downing of the Russian plane through Israeli contrivance created a situation that
could easily have escalated into a war involving Moscow and Washington"
I don't doubt Israeli contrivance but I expect there is possibly a wider contrivance
involving Netanyahu's poodle Macron:
@Anon Syria
refused "land for peace" initiative in 1967 where it would get back Golan in return for
peace. They never established diplomatic relations and are technically in the state of war.
Which raises a couple of questions. One is whether the deal is still open. Another is why a
secular régime in Syria, like that of Assad, would not recognise Israel now in return
for something substantial which might be money rather than territory.
Syria
refused "land for peace" initiative in 1967 where it would get back Golan in return for
peace. They never established diplomatic relations and are technically in the state of war.
'Syria refused "land for peace" initiative in 1967 where it would get back Golan in return
for peace '
Syria
refused "land for peace" initiative in 1967 where it would get back Golan in return for
peace.
They never established diplomatic relations and are technically in the state of war.
Moshe Dayan, in an interview with an Israeli paper, stated that 95% of border incidents with
Syria were deliberately provoked by Israel
"The downing of the Russian plane through Israeli contrivance created a situation
that could easily have escalated into a war involving Moscow and Washington"
I don't doubt Israeli contrivance but I expect there is possibly a wider contrivance
involving Netanyahu's poodle Macron:
"The downing of the Russian plane through Israeli contrivance created a situation
that could easily have escalated into a war involving Moscow and Washington"
I don't doubt Israeli contrivance but I expect there is possibly a wider contrivance
involving Netanyahu's poodle Macron:
Thought provoking material from Joaquin Flores at Ft Russ News. Was it actually the
French? The Auvergne frigate is an anti-submarine ship equipped with surface-to-air missiles
for self-defence Aster 15, with a range of max 30 km. Unless the French have modified it in
the mean time, which is unlikely since it was launched too recently for that in my opinion,
in 2015, to turn it in an air-defence ship equipped with the more advanced Aster 30 missiles,
with a range of 100-120 km, I doubt they were within striking distance of the IL-20 when it
was hit. On the other hand, it is possible that they have participated in the Israeli attack
against Syria, given that they're equipped with cruise missiles and that ships of the same
class have participated in previous attacks against Syria.
Anyway, I don't think it is wise of Russia to play down French involvement for the sake of
Russian-French relationship. France under Macron is a shit country but the French are too
vain to admit that they have elected a complete moron as president. There is no comparison
with Erdogan's Turkey. Erdogan has way more substance than the Rotschild puppet Macron.
Bolton and Pompeo have really excelled themselves over this. Been almost a blackout on
reporting over this, at least after initial reporting of the incident. A major world leader
slapping down Israel is not something the media wish people to see, might get the wrong idea.
The
Auvergne frigate is an anti-submarine ship equipped with surface-to-air missiles for
self-defence Aster 15, with a range of max 30 km. Unless the French have modified it in the
mean time, which is unlikely since it was launched too recently for that in my opinion, in
2015, to turn it in an air-defence ship equipped with the more advanced Aster 30 missiles,
with a range of 100-120 km, I doubt they were within striking distance of the IL-20 when it
was hit. On the other hand, it is possible that they have participated in the Israeli attack
against Syria, given that they're equipped with cruise missiles and that ships of the same
class have participated in previous attacks against Syria.
Anyway, I don't think it is wise of Russia to play down French involvement for the sake of
Russian-French relationship. France under Macron is a shit country but the French are too
vain to admit that they have elected a complete moron as president. There is no comparison
with Erdogan's Turkey. Erdogan has way more substance than the Rotschild puppet Macron.
Erdogan is a paranoid criminal who has back-stabbed every player he's ever done business with
not to mention his intelligence chief, Hakan Fidan, is an alumnus of the Turkish branch of
al-Qaida. Head and shoulders above Macron? I suppose that's possible
If
Russia shot down Israeli aircraft or bombed the airbase from which they took off, or even
obliterated Israel, America would do nothing but bitch and complain. The American military
does not want a war with Russia, because they know they cannot win a conventional war with
Russia. I would go so far as to say that even if Russia sank American warships including an
aircraft carrier America would not go to war.
America does not go to war with countries that have nuclear weapons and the means to
deliver them to the continental United States. That is why she would bend over backwards to
prevent a war with countries like Russia, China or North Korea, and the reason these
countries need not fear America. The prevention of nuclear war is the underlying premise of
American foreign policy. It has been since the nuclear age began. America would only use its
nuclear weapons if the American mainland is hit with nuclear weapons.
America would accept the loss of hundreds or even thousands of its servicemen rather than
have the continental USA turned into a wasteland. I'm inclined to agree with your assessment
of US unwillingness to fight a nuclear power, but .I also can't forget that the US ruling
elites are pathological. Psychotic with hubris, greed & egoism. The "exceptional", the
"indispensable" nation .& worse, the wagging dog to the Israeli tail.
Israel has Zero goodwill. They are a pariah nation.
I'm sure that will be interesting to watch as U.S. power evaporates.
It proves to me that hubris overwhelms strategy; the Jews are the architects of their own
destruction.
My understanding is the Auvergne class frigate has Aster 30 capability from launch,
depending on the configuration ... retrofit would only be necessary in case it had not been
initially equipped - In the French denomination, the Auvergne is a FREMM, anti-submarine, not
FREDA, air-defence. The French FREMM, if the French MoD doesn't lie, is equipped with 16
missiles Aster 15 for self-defence. The FREDAs are equipped with 16 more missiles Aster 30.
Let's say that the Auvergne is in fact equipped with Aster 30 instead of Aster 15 missiles, I
say instead because there would be little room left for its alleged main capabilities if
equipped with both, the likelihood that the French would fire one at a Russian reconnaissance
plane is still less than the plane being hit by mistake by Syrian air-defence.
Why would the
French down a distant slow moving Russian reconnaissance plane? It would make sense if the
plane was much closer to the Auvergne, in which case an Aster 15 would have done the job. The
thing is that it seems that as much as the Il-20 was between the Syrians and the Israelis,
Israelis were between the French and the Russian plane.
Unless the French and the Israeli
hardware are fully integrated, you have to have a hell of a confidence in your stuff to fire
a missile to down the Russian plane in such circumstances. Though the Aster 30 has vertical
launch and anything is possible. I can be wrong but I just find it unlikely.
The Israelis for their part were using four F-16 fighter bombers to stage a surprise
night attack on several sites near Latakia, close to the airbase being used by the
Russians.
Not only that, but the IDF LIED to Russia, stating they were going to attack targets in N.
Syria, not around Latakia.
It appears that French frigate did fire on Syria, in the hopes that Russia would respond,
then Macaroni would cry out to NATO for help under Article 5, which says, "An attack against
one is an attack against all" and off we'd go to who knows where, maybe WWIII.
Israel needs to be dis-armed of its NBC arsenal; nukes, biological and chemical weapons,
which they will deny having, but as usual, it's just another LIE coming from a nation filled
with religious zealots who think some G-d they created will protect them from nuclear bursts
and that they have the G-d given right to kill any Gentile they want, w/o repercussions.
Erdogan is a paranoid criminal who has back-stabbed every player he's ever done
business with ... not to mention his intelligence chief, Hakan Fidan, is an alumnus of the
Turkish branch of al-Qaida. Head and shoulders above Macron? I suppose that's possible...
And
Macron is an egomaniac with and Oedipus complex who oftens makes non-sensical sentences that
send his admirers into trance. The only plus of Macron compared to Erdogan is that he knows
his masters. The down side is that he doesn't know his own country, while Erdogan does. So
yes, it is possible.
"The downing of the Russian plane through Israeli contrivance created a situation
that could easily have escalated into a war involving Moscow and Washington"
I don't doubt Israeli contrivance but I expect there is possibly a wider contrivance
involving Netanyahu's poodle Macron:
Thought provoking material from Joaquin Flores at Ft Russ News. Was it actually the
French? I left a response on the Fort Russ article asking them to explain exactly why French
naval personnel would wish to sacrifice their lives for the greater glory of the
gerontophiliac juvenile war criminal in Paris.
How, I asked Fort Russ to explain, did the monsieurs on the French tin can know that Russia wouldn't shoot back and send them all to
Davy Jones' Locker? Fort Russ' response? It deleted my comment rather than defend its claim. I'm through with Fort Russ.
The Nuremberg standard was only set up to be used against goyim and goy nations who don't
have Jewish occupation governments. Israel must be pretty stupid as if wider, regional war
breaks out then Tel Aviv should be considered a legitimate target and in the event of a
nuclear war no doubt Russia has nukes destined for Tel Aviv and rightly so.
Trump's infamous campaign slogan of MAGA quickly mutated into MIGA which is the originally
intended version anyways. Obedience to Israel has become a norm in presidential election
campaigns. Even the disenfranchised minority caucuses, including and especially the Black one
is firmly in Israel's pockets now. The Black leadership role has now been essentially reduced
to making the odd noise after the shooting of an unarmed Black by a White cop.
"The Black leadership role has now been essentially reduced to making the odd noise
after the shooting of an unarmed Black by a White cop."
As a brown person in Asia I grew up inculcated with the idea that I must always be in
solidarity with black people in America and they would be with me (it was the 1970s, Malcolm
X was still a fresh memory, Muhammad Ali still strode the scene like a colossus, and Martin
Luther King Jr was still thought of as a hero in most circles).
Today, black Americans are people so wallowing in self abnegation that they mass voted for
the racist war criminal Killary Clinton, owing to whose actions black people in America were
incarcerated in hitherto unknown numbers; due to whose crimes black people in Haiti were
looted to destitution; because of whom black people in Libya are literally being sold as
slaves. Black Americans parade around saying "black lives matter", but are more than happy
voting for war criminals who loot Haitian blacks, enslave Libyan blacks, massacre Somali
blacks, deprive Sudanese blacks of life saving drugs, and plot to imperialistically occupy
Africa, a continent of black people. Forget about us brown people, to American blacks in
2018, black lives do *not* matter.
Only virtue signalling and tribal identity matters. Nothing else.
@Vojkan In the
French denomination, the Auvergne is a FREMM, anti-submarine, not FREDA, air-defence. The
French FREMM, if the French MoD doesn't lie, is equipped with 16 missiles Aster 15 for
self-defence. The FREDAs are equipped with 16 more missiles Aster 30. Let's say that the
Auvergne is in fact equipped with Aster 30 instead of Aster 15 missiles, I say instead
because there would be little room left for its alleged main capabilities if equipped with
both, the likelihood that the French would fire one at a Russian reconnaissance plane is
still less than the plane being hit by mistake by Syrian air-defence. Why would the French
down a distant slow moving Russian reconnaissance plane? It would make sense if the plane was
much closer to the Auvergne, in which case an Aster 15 would have done the job. The thing is
that it seems that as much as the Il-20 was between the Syrians and the Israelis, Israelis
were between the French and the Russian plane. Unless the French and the Israeli hardware are
fully integrated, you have to have a hell of a confidence in your stuff to fire a missile to
down the Russian plane in such circumstances. Though the Aster 30 has vertical launch and
anything is possible. I can be wrong but I just find it unlikely.
Why would the French down a distant slow moving Russian reconnaissance plane?
One might as well ask, why were the French on the scene in the first place?
In the scenario being discussed here, the French did not shoot for self defence, but
because they were told to. Macron would be the perfect lapdog for the job.
I left a response on the Fort Russ article asking them to explain
exactly why French naval personnel would wish to sacrifice their lives for the greater glory
of the gerontophiliac juvenile war criminal in Paris. How, I asked Fort Russ to explain, did
the monsieurs on the French tin can know that Russia wouldn't shoot back and send them all to
Davy Jones' Locker?
Fort Russ' response? It deleted my comment rather than defend its claim.
I left a response on the Fort Russ article asking them to explain
exactly why French naval personnel would wish to sacrifice their lives for the greater glory
of the gerontophiliac juvenile war criminal in Paris. How, I asked Fort Russ to explain, did
the monsieurs on the French tin can know that Russia wouldn't shoot back and send them all to
Davy Jones' Locker?
Fort Russ' response? It deleted my comment rather than defend its claim.
I'm through with Fort Russ. Well, Bill, Russia practices entirely too much self-restraint
to my taste too, but I suspect you underestimate the ego-priapism of the French (you should
see the exaggerated 'packages' on the statues of their military heroes), it's not like that
culture plays with a full deck or level mentality. Bottom line: Russia doesn't want World War
III and the priss Gauls are perfectly willing to take advantage of that in the negative, you
might better understand the Western gang mentality. Insofar as assigning a modicum of
'normalcy' (rationality) to the French militarist idiots, it'd be a mistake, they might
notice they'd backed-buttocks into the nuclear launch button if you separated them from
on-ship lover with a pry-bar. Sort of like Dien Bien Phu and catastrophic political-military
miscalculation.
Gerontophiliac? Rumor has it rather Macron is in love with his Muslim beating bodyguard.
The 'elderly' woman seems to be great cover
The Israelis using the hotline just a minute before the shoot down is very similar to when
the yid army gives notice to a Palestinian family just a minute before blowing up their
house. They think it's all funny.
Well, Bill, Russia practices entirely too much self-restraint to my taste too, but I
suspect you underestimate the ego-priapism of the French (you should see the exaggerated
'packages' on the statues of their military heroes), it's not like that culture plays with a
full deck or level mentality. Bottom line: Russia doesn't want World War III and the priss
Gauls are perfectly willing to take advantage of that in the negative, you might better
understand the Western gang mentality. Insofar as assigning a modicum of 'normalcy'
(rationality) to the French militarist idiots, it'd be a mistake, they might notice they'd
backed-buttocks into the nuclear launch button if you separated them from on-ship lover with
a pry-bar. Sort of like Dien Bien Phu and catastrophic political-military miscalculation.
Gerontophiliac? Rumor has it rather Macron is in love with his Muslim beating bodyguard.
The 'elderly' woman seems to be great cover... It is highly implausible that "Micron" has any
power. The same can be said about the imbecile UK Parliament that allowed Mr. Gavin
Williamson (a trained salesperson knowledgeable in fireplaces) to become a Secretary of
Defence. Gavin's only virtue is his superb sensitivity to the needs of mega-war profiteers
and the Friends of Israel in the UK.
20 September 2018: "The Chief of Staff for the Israëli Air Force, General Amikam
Norkin, arrives in a hurry to present his version of events. Once these proofs were checked
and compared with other recordings, it transpired that Israël was lying
straight-faced."
"On 17 September 2018, France, Israël and the United Kingdom carried out a
joint operation against Syrian targets.
1. A British Torpedo took off from Cyprus to land in Iraq. During the flight, it violated
Syrian air space in order to scan the Syrian defences and make the allied attack
possible.
2. Less than an hour later, four Israëli F-16s and a French frigate, L'Auvergne, fired
on targets in the Syrian governorate of Lattakia. The Syrian air defences protected their
country by firing their S-200s against the French and Israëli missiles.
3. During the battle, an F-16 used a Russian Ilyushin Il-20 as a shield.
The cowardice of the British and French leaders led them to censor all information
concerning their responsibility in this operation . London made no comment, and Paris
denied the facts. Neither the BBC, nor France-Television dared to mention the subject. For
these two countries, more than ever, t he reality of external politics is excluded from
the democratic debate.
In case the White House should find an acceptable narrative of the facts for its electors,
Russia could forbid the United Kingdom, France and Israël from making any intrusion into
the maritime, terrestrial and aerial space of Syria without the authorisation of
Damascus.
London and Paris would have to cease their threats of bombing under whatever pretext at all
(false chemical weapons) and withdraw their special forces. This measure would be valid for
all protagonists in general, except for the United States and, in Idlib, for Turkey."
-- Neither the United Kingdom nor France nor Israël has a head of state. These states
are indeed headless.
Why would the French down a distant slow moving Russian reconnaissance plane?
One might as well ask, why were the French on the scene in the first place? In the scenario being discussed here, the French did not shoot for self defence, but
because they were told to. Macron would be the perfect lapdog for the job. I agree Macron
being the perfect lapdog for the job. I nevertheless find the scenario on Fort-Russ unlikely
because of the relative positions of the actors, if they were their true positions, when the
Russian plane was hit.
Russia's MOD story is clear: the IL-20 had been flying around Idlib and was coming back when
4 fighters from Israel bombed Latakia and having accomplished their mission and also noticed
of the incoming IL-20, instead of running away, decided to stay around for another objective.
One of the fighter came close to the IL-20 which was going to land, and he gave him the
"Judas' kiss" calling for the Syrian DCA to shoot down the IL-20.
It was not an accident, it was a pre-planned murder: Note that the Syrian DCA became ready
only 10′ after the bombing of Lattakia and that the israelis had plenty of time to run
away.
It would be interesting to know if these fighters communicate with Israel before deciding
to carry out this murder.
I am glad to see that Russia is not behaving like the US when the USS Liberty was attacked
by Israel. By deciding to send the S300 to Syria , improved their communication system and
jammed airplanes communication systems when attacking Syria, Russia is giving an appropriate
answer which is going to improve drastically the defense capabilities of Syria and "cooled
some aggressive hot heads".
"... VV Putin and S Shoigu have quickly and calmly moved to insure that another incident like the IL-20 shoot down does not occur again. After laying the blame for the incident squarely on Israel, both men announced Syria will receive a major upgrade to their air defense system. Russian will deliver S-300 systems to the Syrians within the next two weeks. ..."
"... In other developments, Russian Senator and former Air Force commander Viktor Bondarev announced the establishment of a no-fly zone in Latakia to prevent a repeat of the IL-20 aircraft tragedy. He added that "any unauthorized objects in the sky over Hmeimim Airport will definitely be eliminated." I'm sure that remark was meant for an Israeli audience. I'm also certain that VV Putin personally informed Netanyahu of this in one of their recent phone calls. ..."
"... In addition to the S-300s and no-fly zone, Russian radio electronic combat assets will suppress communications, radars and satellite navigation of any combat aircraft attacking targets in Syria. A Russian Su-35S has reportedly intercepted a US F-22 over Syria. Russian has also asked for permission to station fighters and bombers at the Nojeh Air Base in NW Iran. The bear is seriously pissed. ..."
"... We are unhappy because the Izzies are unhappy. ..."
VV Putin and S Shoigu have quickly and calmly moved to insure that another incident like the
IL-20 shoot down does not occur again. After laying the blame for the incident squarely on
Israel, both men announced Syria will receive a major upgrade to their air defense system.
Russian will deliver S-300 systems to the Syrians within the next two weeks.
If Russia already
has S-300 systems under their control in Syria, these systems will probably be turned over the
Syrians and new Russian systems will be brought in. Otherwise, new systems will be flown in
directly to the Syrians. I would think the former would be the most reasonable way to upgrade
the Syrian air defense system within two weeks unless the Russian have already quietly flown
them in. In either case, Russian technicians and trainer will surely work with their Syrian
counterparts for well past the two weeks stated.
In other developments, Russian Senator and former Air Force commander Viktor Bondarev
announced the establishment of a no-fly zone in Latakia to prevent a repeat of the IL-20
aircraft tragedy. He added that "any unauthorized objects in the sky over Hmeimim Airport will
definitely be eliminated." I'm sure that remark was meant for an Israeli audience. I'm also
certain that VV Putin personally informed Netanyahu of this in one of their recent phone
calls.
In addition to the S-300s and no-fly zone, Russian radio electronic combat assets will
suppress communications, radars and satellite navigation of any combat aircraft attacking
targets in Syria. A Russian Su-35S has reportedly intercepted a US F-22 over Syria. Russian has
also asked for permission to station fighters and bombers at the Nojeh Air Base in NW Iran. The
bear is seriously pissed.
I guess we'll soon see if the Israelis are feeling froggy.
"... I think the second of your two proposals is much the most likely. ("They were waiting/hoping Russia/Syria would strike the French ship in which case they and the UK planes would attack, justifying a NATO full assault from the NATO ships in the Med and probably WW3.") ..."
"... The US had at least three Major destroyers, two nuclear subs and the "Truman" Aircraft carrier in the Med.The UK Tornados were airborne and so were (certainly) a bevy of US aircraft. ..."
"... I suspect the "scenario" was to have a Syrian missile "threaten" (fired at....) the French Frigate Auvergne, which would have been the excuse for a massive US/NATO/UK/Israeli attack on the Syrians. (but NOT necessarily the Russians, as this would have led to WWIII*** or IV). The French were sending up missiles for just this purpose. The Syrians had to be "seen" firing first at a NATO ship. The Russian Il-20 had to be eliminated as well as it might have picked up compromising proof of the NATO "plan". ..."
"... This is very close to the scenario several years ago, where the US force moved to the far end of the Med. and an Israeli plane fired two missile from behind them, towards Syria to provoke a Syrian response aimed at the US ships. The Russian Radars picked this up and loudly called the bluff. Israel then suddenly said that the missiles were "practice" and dropped them in the sea. ..."
"... What fascinates many analysts is the stubbornness and stupidity of US policy-makers. The more they try to prolong the US unipolar moment, the more incentive they give to other countries to jump on the multipolar bandwagon. ..."
"... Even countries that probably have deep ties with the United States on an oligarchic level will have no alternative other than to modify and redesign their strategic alliances over the next 30 years. The United States continues along the path of diplomatic arrogance and strategic stupidity, mired in a civil war among its elites, with no end in sight. ..."
"... Shoigu: "We're convinced that the implementation of these measures will cool down the hotheads and will prevent rash actions that might threaten our servicemen. If not, we'll be forced to react based on the evolving situation." ..."
"... I can't help thinking of that old US joke, only this time it's real: "The beatings will continue until morale improves." ..."
"... Bolton now says that the Outlaw US Empire will remain in Syria as long as Iranians are there. Well, numerous ethnic Iranians live within Syria. Given his attitude, you'd think he'd be clamoring for Iranians living within the Empire to be rounded up and sent to concentration camps. Bolton reminds me of McCarthy: Big mouth and booze-boosted courage 100% devoid of a morality or ethical principals. ..."
"... It was I believe of the assumption (early analyses of the event) scenario: actually a cruise missile being fired from a a sub, unidentified sub. and was reported from a Cypriot source If i do remember right (that all were the initial hours of the event) that later (after days) morphed in to air to ground being fired from Israel jets? ( I believe it was close to Christmass) ..."
"... So, basically Russian MoD claims that Israel AirForce DID NOT alerted Russia about their operation, that culminated in the misfortunate downing of Il-20. ..."
"... Answering to another poster about the flightradar apps. I wouldn't trust what CIA or DoD could/would and should have been using for propaganda purposes to mess, with evidence or to try to build false leads in trying to promote their narratives. Western sources are in question, as of course Eastern too. For instance Iran banned the Telegram app. according to them there was a version that was been used as a spy tool disguised as civilian application software. ..."
"... Russia declared NO FLY ZONE over LATAKIA ! https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-russia-establishes-no-fly-zone-over-latakia-province-diplomat/ Russia are slow to react , but they run Fast :)! ..."
"... funny how bolton never mentioned anything about israels responsibility for making war on syria...bombing buildings and accidentally or otherwise being directly responsible for the downing of IL-20 where 15 russians died seems not to even cross his mind...that is a vacuous mind indeed.. the hypocrisy is regularly on display from the usa.. if it isn't bolton, it is haley, or some other doofus, talking head from the usa.. ..."
"... an alternative speculation on this is the IL-20 had a lot of valuable intel data with it that was removed from the theatre.. that would suggest the act here on israels part was intentional.. i suspect it was an unintended accident, but one that has big ramifications for israel... i continue to believe we are ramping up to a major war and moving more and more in this direction.. this is another step in the same direction.. i also believe that russia sees it coming and is doing what it feels is the best they can do in this environment.. ..."
"... Shoigu says there will now be "centralised control over all of Syria's air defence facilities and capabilities, the monitoring of airspace and prompt targeting". ..."
"... In other words, Russia will be able to control who gets targeted and shot at. That might be what Israel wants. Russia ensures its planes don't get shot down and in return Israel knows their friend Russia has assumed centralized control over air defenses and they no longer have to worry about independently controlled Syrian missiles ..."
I think the second of your two proposals is much the most likely. ("They were
waiting/hoping Russia/Syria would strike the French ship in which case they and the UK
planes would attack, justifying a NATO full assault from the NATO ships in the Med and
probably WW3.")
The US had at least three Major destroyers, two nuclear subs and the "Truman" Aircraft
carrier in the Med.The UK Tornados were airborne and so were (certainly) a bevy of US
aircraft.
I suspect the "scenario" was to have a Syrian missile "threaten" (fired at....) the French
Frigate Auvergne, which would have been the excuse for a massive US/NATO/UK/Israeli attack
on the Syrians. (but NOT necessarily the Russians, as this would have led to WWIII*** or
IV). The French were sending up missiles for just this purpose. The Syrians had to be
"seen" firing first at a NATO ship. The Russian Il-20 had to be eliminated as well as it
might have picked up compromising proof of the NATO "plan".
This is very close to the scenario several years ago, where the US force moved to the
far end of the Med. and an Israeli plane fired two missile from behind them, towards Syria
to provoke a Syrian response aimed at the US ships. The Russian Radars picked this up and
loudly called the bluff. Israel then suddenly said that the missiles were "practice" and
dropped them in the sea.
*** I reckon we are IN WWIII as sanctions and asymetric warfare are ....warfare. So next
is WWIV
"What fascinates many analysts is the stubbornness and stupidity of US policy-makers.
The more they try to prolong the US unipolar moment, the more incentive they give to other
countries to jump on the multipolar bandwagon.
"Even countries that probably have deep ties with the United States on an oligarchic
level will have no alternative other than to modify and redesign their strategic alliances
over the next 30 years. The United States continues along the path of diplomatic arrogance
and strategic stupidity, mired in a civil war among its elites, with no end in sight."
It's UNGA time again, so we'll get to see the arrogance and stupidity play out in
public.
Shoigu: "We're convinced that the implementation of these measures will cool down the
hotheads and will prevent rash actions that might threaten our servicemen. If not, we'll be
forced to react based on the evolving situation."
And it's a good time to remember that Russia always leads with its best terms. If forced
to continue negotiating, the terms get increasingly tough.
~~
I can't help thinking of that old US joke, only this time it's real: "The beatings will continue until morale improves."
I suspect Zionist arrogance never allowed them to even consider consequences as they'd
gotten away with similar attacks. IMO, the Zionist act differed little from their targeted
killings of Palestinian protesters in Gaza. This cartoon I found on
Twitter is close to being correct. I said it was Russia's USS Liberty moment, but Russia's
reaction wasn't anything like the bent-over passivity displayed by LBJ.
Bolton now says
that the Outlaw US Empire will remain in Syria as long as Iranians are there. Well,
numerous ethnic Iranians live within Syria. Given his attitude, you'd think he'd be
clamoring for Iranians living within the Empire to be rounded up and sent to concentration
camps. Bolton reminds me of McCarthy: Big mouth and booze-boosted courage 100% devoid of a
morality or ethical principals.
KarlofI@67--
Thanks
Frances @64
I think the second of your two proposals is much the most likely. ("They were
waiting/hoping Russia/Syria would strike the French ship in which case they and the UK
planes would attack, justifying a NATO full assault from the NATO ships in the Med and
probably WW3.")
The US had at least three Major destroyers, two nuclear subs and the "Truman" Aircraft
carrier in the Med.The UK Tornados were airborne and so were (certainly) a bevy of US
aircraft.
I suspect the "scenario" was to have a Syrian missile "threaten" (fired at....) the
French Frigate Auvergne, which would have been the excuse for a massive
US/NATO/UK/Israeli attack on the Syrians. (but NOT necessarily the Russians, as this
would have led to WWIII*** or IV). The French were sending up missiles for just this
purpose. The Syrians had to be "seen" firing first at a NATO ship. The Russian Il-20 had
to be eliminated as well as it might have picked up compromising proof of the NATO
"plan".
This is very close to the scenario several years ago, where the US force moved to the
far end of the Med. and an Israeli plane fired two missile from behind them, towards
Syria to provoke a Syrian response aimed at the US ships. The Russian Radars picked this
up and loudly called the bluff. Israel then suddenly said that the missiles were
"practice" and dropped them in the sea.
*** I reckon we are IN WWIII as sanctions and asymetric warfare are ....warfare. So
next is WWIV
It was I believe of the assumption (early analyses of the event) scenario: actually a cruise
missile being fired from a a sub, unidentified sub. and was reported from a Cypriot source
If i do remember right (that all were the initial hours of the event) that later (after
days) morphed in to air to ground being fired from Israel jets? ( I believe it was close to
Christmass)
Also as a answer to what you mentioned above I also quote this post from another
poster:
Russian MoD explicitly denies claims made earlier by Israeli MoD
"At 22:03 a Syrian anti-aircraft missile engaged a larger and closer target –
Il-20 airplane. The commander reported on the fire on board and emergency descent. At
22:07 the Russian Il-20 survey airplane went off the radars. Meanwhile, the Israeli jets
did not leave for their air space but stayed in the region and continued patrolling in
the air till 22:40."
and "I would like to stress that during negotiations via the deconfliction channel, the
representative of the Israeli Air Force Headquarters reported on the targets assigned to
the Israeli aircraft in north Syria. The dialogue was held in Russian. The Russian
Defence Ministry has a record of the talk.
.....
As you can see on the map, the Israeli jets delivered strikes not in the north of the
Syrian Arab Republic but in Latakia region which is the western province of the country.
Besides, the city of Latakia is located on the western coast."
So, basically Russian MoD claims that Israel AirForce DID NOT alerted Russia about
their operation, that culminated in the misfortunate downing of Il-20.
Some other operation was announced, indeed. But not this one.
Now, that is quite a claim.
Posted by: Arioch | Sep 24, 2018 9:13:41 AM | 18
Ok, so now we have a clearer picture.
According to Russian MoD the IL20 since the first 7 or 10 minutes the Israeli group was "in
the picture" it was already going down in flames hit by the S-200 at 22:07, which had
already tracked the targets and fired upon at 22:03. Though the Israel group stayed "in the
picture" at least until 22:40 , this time performing a second mission, of CAP, first one
was probably a Strike mission to Syrian coasts. So this leads me to assume there were 4
MISSIONS in operation for the Israeli Air force or allies happening to be in the region. 1
Strike, 1 CAP, 1 a third party trying to remove evidence from the floating debri of the
IL-20 (data modules/equipment etc) 4 another delivery mission to insert a sleeper package,
right beneath Syrian defence noses and what would be (in a few minutes) the Russian SAR
area in trying to acquire the parts of the downed plane.
The "sleeper" can always be something that can be activated at later dates. (IDF used to
send artificial rocks that were hiding opto/aqustic equipment during Russian ships supply
runs, during time Russians were trying to establish base at Latakia and israelis were
trying to spy on the ships unloading stuff)
So in all I believe this was a calculated mission from Israel, not only to kill the IL20
but to establish other advantages during time of chos etc.
This is about the Israelis, do not trust them, even if they say the sun is shining outside
you should go an check it out yourself.
Answering to another poster about the flightradar apps. I wouldn't trust what CIA or DoD
could/would and should have been using for propaganda purposes to mess, with evidence or to
try to build false leads in trying to promote their narratives. Western sources are in
question, as of course Eastern too. For instance Iran banned the Telegram app. according to
them there was a version that was been used as a spy tool disguised as civilian application
software.
@80 juliania... you might be right and there was some direct connection to idlib, or the
peace agreement turkey and russia reached just prior to this event.. i mostly think of it
as a series of events where israel didn't foresee the end result... the term 'hothead' that
i believe shoigu used in the past 24 hours as reason for deploying the s-300s, applies
directly to israel as i see it..
meanwhile boltons comments.. "Russian plans to supply Syria with a S-300 missile system
would be a "significant escalation" by Moscow, US National Security Advisor John Bolton
said on Monday." https://www.rt.com/newsline/439235-us-bolton-russia-syria/
funny how bolton never mentioned anything about israels responsibility for making war on
syria...bombing buildings and accidentally or otherwise being directly responsible for the
downing of IL-20 where 15 russians died seems not to even cross his mind...that is a
vacuous mind indeed.. the hypocrisy is regularly on display from the usa.. if it isn't
bolton, it is haley, or some other doofus, talking head from the usa..
an alternative speculation on this is the IL-20 had a lot of valuable intel data with it
that was removed from the theatre.. that would suggest the act here on israels part was
intentional.. i suspect it was an unintended accident, but one that has big ramifications
for israel... i continue to believe we are ramping up to a major war and moving more and
more in this direction.. this is another step in the same direction.. i also believe that
russia sees it coming and is doing what it feels is the best they can do in this
environment..
@90 usa=isis..here is another article from smoothie today that you might want to read
and consider...
With one dopey, hubris driven blunder the israeli and yankee governments have lost the lot.
Russia has grasped air dominance as a shield for Iran, Turkey, Lebanon, as well as Syria.
The Russians have cemented the security of allies in the region. (Not that Turkey could see
or appreciate that)
Now Iran has an advance proxy defence at the entire Syrian western border. Lebanon is no
longer a permanent cringing victim and will find expansion and other changes in its public
and political mind. Syria and Lebanon are no longer the captive of israeli predation as
their airspace and seaspace are more secure.
The israelis and yankees will not stand for this as it has totally transformed the
military theatre to their exclusion. Now Russia has visited on them the same medicine as
they dish out on Russia's western border region. Watch for madness and histrionics and more
blundering, stupidity.
S-400 to Syria, response to Turkey shooting down the SU-24.
S-300 to Tartus and upgrading and linking of Syrian systems to Russian command,
response
to US attack threats at the time of the Aleppo offensive.
Now Russian spec S-300 spread throughout Syria as a response to latest US threats of
attack and the Israeli downing of the IL-20.
Thinking about this, fast delivery of S-300 to Syria may have been decided on even
before the downing of the IL-20.
The short term deal with Erdogan giving time to get the extra S-300 systems in place before
the main attack on Idlib occurs.
Shoigu says there will now be "centralised control over all of Syria's air defence
facilities and capabilities, the monitoring of airspace and prompt targeting".
In other words, Russia will be able to control who gets targeted and shot at. That might
be what Israel wants. Russia ensures its planes don't get shot down and in return Israel
knows their friend Russia has assumed centralized control over air defenses and they no
longer have to worry about independently controlled Syrian missiles
That explains how quickly Russia was able to act and "suggests" perhaps a false flag
forcing Syria to cede more control of its air defences to Russia ? It also explains why
Russia is not worried about Israelis reponse to them giving Syria S300 since they will
control targetting and can override Syrian operators.
Not married to this hypothesis , just throwing it out there
@114 Frances. One possibility is that the Russians will ship in more S-400 for their own
use, thereby allowing them to hand over existing S-300 installations to the Syrian Army.
That would allow for the "two week delivery" to the Syrians, since all they need to do
is take the keys and drive the units out of the Russian base.
Note that if this is how the Russians do it then the Syrian S-300 will definitely be the
non-export version.
"That would allow for the "two week delivery" to the Syrians, since all they need to do is
take the keys and drive the units out of the Russian base.
Note that if this is how the Russians do it then the Syrian S-300 will definitely be the
non-export version."
You could be right re the systems, I do think the "two weeks" statement is the time frame
in which the system will be live, not when they will be delivered.
Russia has no reason to trust Israel whatsoever, any time line would be misleading IMO.
"... Exactly. It's obvious the Israelis intended for the French ship to be attacked, setting off god knows what chain of events. ..."
"... Israel is certainly responsible for precipitating the incident, but the accusations that Israel somehow purposely caused Syria to shoot down the airplane - as if the Syrians were helpless to prevent it - are without merit. ..."
"... Some salient facts: Syrian air defenses either knew the location of the Russian plane or they didn't. If they didn't know the plane was there, then that is a problem of coordination between Russian and Syrian military forces. Given that the Russian and Syrian AD networks are supposed to be integrated, I'd say this is the less likely option. If the Syrians did know the plane was there, then the Syrians are to blame for poor fire discipline and probably incompetence. Deliberately shooting at enemy aircraft when a friendly aircraft is in the line of fire is a big no no in air defense doctrine (and a big no no as a general rule for any use of force), especially with a weapon as unwieldy as an SA-5. ..."
"... The so-called integrated networks between the Russian and Syrian AD systems appears to have not been working. Or someone was asleep, or in panic, at one end. I vote for panic. Those Syrian missileers are under serious pressure by Assad to bring down an Israeli aircraft, which is probably affecting their nerves and their judgment. ..."
"... Does Israel really care? It seems that Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman believe they can act with impunity since no one has held them to account to date. ..."
"... Putin was explicit in his conversation with Bibi that Israel not only violates Syria's airspace but violated previous agreements with Russia on matters of attacking Syrian/Iranian targets. ..."
"... There will be consequences and Putin also was explicit today when stated that, and I quote, "everyone will notice them". While it is a sad day for Russia and is agony for families of the crew, it is also clear (and thank God) that France and her ship had no hand in it whatsoever. ..."
"... It seems to me that Putin's response was too 'soft'. Unlike Shoigu's. Perhaps there is some divergence between Russian political and military policies with regard to Israel. What happens as a result of this tragedy will clarify matters. Putin cannot afford to alienate his military (and thus the Russian people) for the sake of Israel. ..."
"... Right. One must ask why Putin is acting this way. He has actually taken Trump off the hook. If the offensive had gone in Trump would have been under a lot of pressure to take military action when the WH drama played out. ..."
"... The DMZ agreement prevents that, and now he takes this soft line over this bit of Israeli cleverness that cost Shoigu 14 men for no good reason, Curious. One might think he does not want to rock the boat before the mid term. ..."
"... Bingo! Plus a chance for Turkey to clean up her act a bit. It is a good old anecdote about two bulls (old and young) standing on the hill looking down at the cows' herd. ..."
"... IMO, the new deal between R+6 and Turkey on Idlib for time being is smart ..."
"... It's a salami slicing strategy VS. an open between R+6 and entire west while Turkey playing both sides and collect concessions. IMO R+6 can better afford buying time than the scarce resources while they all are under economic sanctions. ..."
"... A timeline of the Israeli F-16's actions that resulted in the downing of the IL-20 in Izvestia. It was completely intentional. The planes were within several hundred meters of each other. The Israeli's set up the IL-20 knowing beforehand it would be destroyed. https://iz.ru/790550/kirill... ..."
"... Yes. Anyone who wants to absolve the Israelis of guilt in this matter is just a sap. ..."
"... Perhaps in your time in Russia the Kremlin was a monolith. It doesn't seem so now, certainly as far as the expression of differing views are concerned (eg, Shoigu's vs Putin's). Such differing views, publicly expressed, do represent their institutions' views. I have no doubt that Russia's military is very unhappy with Israel's actions in this incident. And, would like to teach Israel a lesson. But they don't make policy (theirs is only one input), and they follow the policies ultimately decided by the state. ..."
"... I think there will be 'visible' changes to Russia's security posture in Syria, as Putin has unambiguously stated..and probably very quickly...the objective of those changes will be to minimize the potential of any such provocations succeeding going forward...the Israelis going forward will need to pull in their horns, and their media is already discussing this... ..."
"... There is a growing sentiment, that Russia is handling too softly the attacks on its armed forces. The lack of visible or spectacular retaliations, counteractions is making an impression of a very narrow set of choices in Russia's Syria policy. ..."
In reporting the shoot-down of the Russian IL-20, Harretz reported that "Not only Russian
and (allegedly) Israeli and French aircraft and missiles were in the air. Civilian radar also
tracked British Royal Air Force aircraft, which, unusually, had switched on their
transponders and gone into holding patterns." If true, this strongly suggests a set-up and
with NATO involvement.
Israel is certainly responsible for precipitating the incident, but the accusations that
Israel somehow purposely caused Syria to shoot down the airplane - as if the Syrians were
helpless to prevent it - are without merit.
Some salient facts: Syrian air defenses either knew the location of the Russian plane or they didn't. If they didn't know the plane was there, then that is a problem of coordination between
Russian and Syrian military forces. Given that the Russian and Syrian AD networks are
supposed to be integrated, I'd say this is the less likely option. If the Syrians did know the plane was there, then the Syrians are to blame for poor fire
discipline and probably incompetence. Deliberately shooting at enemy aircraft when a friendly
aircraft is in the line of fire is a big no no in air defense doctrine (and a big no no as a
general rule for any use of force), especially with a weapon as unwieldy as an SA-5.
Andy - Regarding IFF: Smoothie down below claims the Syrians were never given Russian IFF technology and
codes.
But the two Russian-manned S-400 systems certainly had them. The so-called integrated
networks between the Russian and Syrian AD systems appears to have not been working. Or
someone was asleep, or in panic, at one end. I vote for panic. Those Syrian missileers are
under serious pressure by Assad to bring down an Israeli aircraft, which is probably
affecting their nerves and their judgment.
Does Israel really care? It seems that Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor
Lieberman believe they can act with impunity since no one has held them
to account to date.
Yes she does, otherwise CO of IAF wouldn't have been on his way to Moscow and Bibi
urgently calling Putin. Once one gets more complete details of the event, such as teeny-weeny
fact of Russia not providing Syrian AD (and with a good reason) with own IFF technology and
codes--things become much more clearer. This was confirmed today.
Of course military
counter-intelligence still has to do its due diligence but it increasingly begins to look
more as FUBAR rather than some "special" operations.
Most likely, in fact highly likely, IAF
F-16s were detected and tracked (and even possibly locked on) by Syrian S-200 and they
"masked" (the oldest trick in the book) by descending IL-20.
Putin was explicit in his
conversation with Bibi that Israel not only violates Syria's airspace but violated previous
agreements with Russia on matters of attacking Syrian/Iranian targets.
There will be
consequences and Putin also was explicit today when stated that, and I quote, "everyone will
notice them". While it is a sad day for Russia and is agony for families of the crew, it is
also clear (and thank God) that France and her ship had no hand in it whatsoever.
Is Putin between a rock and a hard place in Syria? He's committed
significant capabilities to assist Assad in regaining control of Syrian
territory, but FUKUS and Turkey are playing a spoilers game with the
possibility that they could enter the Syrian conflict with an even
larger force structure.
Actually, he didn't commit "significant" capabilities. They are very moderate by Russia
standards. You want to see significant capabilities--Google Vostok 2018. That's significant.
The appearance of new capabilities in Syria is long overdue, precisely for the reason that it
is Russia who is keeping a barrel to Turkey's temple, not the other way around. They are
needed their anyway just in case FUKUS decides to respond to absolutely unexpected and evil
chemical weapons attacks by Assad.
It seems to me that Putin's response was too 'soft'. Unlike Shoigu's. Perhaps there is some divergence between Russian political and military policies with
regard to Israel. What happens as a result of this tragedy will clarify matters. Putin cannot
afford to alienate his military (and thus the Russian people) for the sake of Israel.
Right. One must ask why Putin is acting this way. He has actually taken Trump off the
hook. If the offensive had gone in Trump would have been under a lot of pressure to take
military action when the WH drama played out.
The DMZ agreement prevents that, and now he
takes this soft line over this bit of Israeli cleverness that cost Shoigu 14 men for no good
reason, Curious. One might think he does not want to rock the boat before the mid term.
Right. One must ask why Putin is acting this way. He has actually
taken Trump off the hook. If the offensive had gone in Trump would have
been under a lot of pressure to take military action when the WH drama
played out.
Bingo! Plus a chance for Turkey to clean up her act a bit. It is a good old anecdote about
two bulls (old and young) standing on the hill looking down at the cows' herd.
IMO, the new deal between R+6 and Turkey on Idlib for time being is smart, I think for R+6
is the right strategy for now. IMO the thinking behind it was, it's better to keep Turkey on
this (Astana) side of the war rather than let her loose spoiler or worst to let her go back
to the West/Arab/Israel alliance and allow re arming the jihadis. It's a salami slicing
strategy VS. an open between R+6 and entire west while Turkey playing both sides and collect
concessions. IMO R+6 can better afford buying time than the scarce resources while they all
are under economic sanctions.
A timeline of the Israeli F-16's actions that resulted in the downing of the IL-20 in
Izvestia. It was completely intentional. The planes were within several hundred meters of
each other. The Israeli's set up the IL-20 knowing beforehand it would be destroyed.
https://iz.ru/790550/kirill...
Perhaps there is some divergence between Russian political and military policies with
regard to Israel.
This divergence is mostly a fantasy of Western political class and media. They project
their own view on how their own government operates (or rather does not) onto Kremlin and
that is why they always wrong.
Perhaps in your time in Russia the Kremlin was a monolith. It doesn't seem so now,
certainly as far as the expression of differing views are concerned (eg, Shoigu's vs
Putin's). Such differing views, publicly expressed, do represent their institutions' views. I have
no doubt that Russia's military is very unhappy with Israel's actions in this incident. And,
would like to teach Israel a lesson. But they don't make policy (theirs is only one input),
and they follow the policies ultimately decided by the state.
Many other factors need to be taken into account in the finalization of the State's
policies. The policies of the Russian state are expressed by its head (ie, Putin).
I think there will be 'visible' changes to Russia's security posture in Syria, as Putin
has unambiguously stated..and probably very quickly...the objective of those changes will be
to minimize the potential of any such provocations succeeding going forward...the Israelis
going forward will need to pull in their horns, and their media is already discussing
this...
Again, I don't think we must necessarily assume that the goat is Israel here...yes they
were involved in what was clearly a plot, but it is also very possible that the Russian plane
was downed by the French or British...
There is a growing sentiment, that Russia is handling too softly the attacks on its armed
forces. The lack of visible or spectacular retaliations, counteractions is making an
impression of a very narrow set of choices in Russia's Syria policy.
.It all sounds like a pure Syrian IFF fuck-up, not an Israeli conjob.
When Powers was shot down in his U-2 over USSR, the other downed aircraft was
Soviet Aviation of PVO MiG-17 (or 19--don't remember from the top of my head). A classic case
of "friendly fire". Andrei, I have never seen you blow so much smoke or work so hard to quell
emotions I guess it may be justified in doing what one can to stop WWIII. Maybe there are
other reasons.
You are usually very careful to make sure that, in your writing, 2+2 = 4. This time,
perhaps for the above reasons, not so much. You claim that most posts on this thread are
emotional rants or trolls, yet you have spent most of your efforts trying to calm emotions
and not addressing more serious flaws in the official story.
Harold Smith rightly pointed out that the F16s did not end up behind the IL20 by mistake.
This was not some joy ride by the F16s. It was a well planned intentional operation. The
Israelis knew the habits and capabilities of the IL20 and made plans accordingly using cover
from the IL20 as their method to penetrate within the envelope of the S200s. The 1 minute
warning was a part of that plan. Any more warning would have exposed the F16s to much more
danger.
The Israelis knew a one minute warning was inadequate but gave it just for its value of
plausible deniability. They probably expected the S200s to hold their fire but they had no
way of being sure of that. Instead, they made an intentional plan, using the IL20 as cover
and intentionally putting the IL20 at risk of shoot down in order to protect their F16s. The
one minute warning was good for plausible deniability, nothing more.
Then we see Netanyahu rushing to de-escalate. The only thing he can plausibly say to Putin
is that this was intentional but done without his knowledge or permission. To claim it was a
"tragic error" is a joke. Would Putin believe that? Not likely. Thus we have a whole
delegation flying to Moscow to attempt to bolster that argument.
Not that the political players give a damn about it, but Israel's actions here are blatant
violations of international law, probably war crimes, and well, just plain immoral. But it is
only regular guys like me that care about stuff like that.
She does and this latest event could have been (with high degree of probability)
precipitated by Russian-Turkey-Iranian arrangement on Idlib, because isolation of
Israeli-friendly (or rather openly supported by her) most radical Islamic groups will happen
and that means Israel losing one of her most important pieces of strategy of keeping ME
destabilized. But then again–a good proof of effectiveness of Russia's actions in the
area, isn't it? Good ol' classic cliche: the flak is heavy, that means we are over
target.
-Israel has a fleet of quiet diesel-electric subs.
Yes, she does–German built.
-It has been shown that diesel electric subs have in the past easily come within
striking distance of U.S. carriers.
True, even nukes (subs) have penetrated ASW "shield" and conducted lengthy trailing of
CBGs many times.
-If Israel wanted to suck the United States into a shooting war in Syria, it would make
sense to sink the Truman with one of it's subs, blaming in on Russia. The United States
egged on by its NeoCon contingents and in a fit of emotionalism – think 9/11 –
would almost certainly react before thinking.
Ahh, not quite. Recall what happened with Kursk, the first act of the United States was to
have CIA Director be on the first flight to Moscow. No, it doesn't work like this and, I have
suspicion that, however deplorable Israel's policies are, Israel proper intelligence and
military people are on the order of magnitude smarter, however deviously, and calculating
than American neocons most of whom are dumb as fvcks and good only in bribery and mass-media
tantrums. Reaction of Israel in all this situation is the best proof.
-Of course, one something like this did happen, you'd have a war. And war is a wild
thing that, once turned loose, does what it wants and is out of control.
Let's put it this way, once Russians and Americans begin to kill each-other, Israel goes
immediately down. In fact, it will cease to exist as a state. But who wants to pay such a
price? Bibi knows that.
Let's put it this way, once Russians and Americans begin to kill each-other, Israel goes
immediately down. In fact, it will cease to exist as a state.
Can you expand on that?
Unless you're simply pointing out that escalation to a large scale nuclear exchange means
all states "will cease to exist', this is a non-trivial statement that begs explication.
Can you expand on that?
Israel is a known "owner" of nuclear weapons and is the nation which, depending on
scenario, has the ability to attack pretty much anything in Europe. Possible counter-force
scenario between Russia and US will involve "killing" of Israel's nuclear deterrent, as it
will be with European NATO members (UK and France), but Israel is tiny and any nuclear strike
there is, basically, a death sentence. This is in a nutshell–of course contingencies
vary but I am sure Israel's nuclear sites are in the targeting data base of Russia's nuclear
triad. That is until Israel gets the message and gets back to daddy (or mommy) and that is
what is in play right now. It will take some time, though.
"... "We believe that the blame for the Russian Il-20 aircraft tragedy lies entirely with the Israeli Air Force," ..."
"... "the military leadership of Israel either has no appreciation for the level of relations with Russia, or has no control over individual commands or commanding officers who understood that their actions would lead to tragedy." ..."
"... "a clear violation of the 2015 Russian-Israeli agreements." ..."
"... The misleading information provided by the Israeli officer about the area of strikes did not allow the Russian Il-20 airplane to move timely to a safe area. ..."
"... "preferred target" ..."
"... "The Israeli jets saw the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 and used it as a shield against the anti-aircraft missiles ..."
"... , while they carried on maneuvering in the region," ..."
"... The actions of the Israeli fighter pilots, which led to the loss of life of 15 Russian servicemen, either lacked professionalism or were an act of criminal negligence, to say the least. ..."
"... "This is an extremely ungrateful response to all that has been done by the Russian Federation for Israel and the Israeli people recently," ..."
"... "ensure there were no shelling attacks on Israeli territory" ..."
"... "a six-year hiatus." ..."
"... "safe distance for Israel," ..."
"... "A total of 1,050 personnel, 24 MLRSs and tactical missiles, as well as 145 pieces of other munitions and military equipment were withdrawn from the area," ..."
"... In view of the above, the hostile actions committed by the Israeli Air Force against the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 aircraft cross the line of civilized relations. ..."
The report featured previously undisclosed radar data and details of communications between
Russian and Israeli militaries, and concluded that "the military leadership of Israel
either has no appreciation for the level of relations with Russia, or has no control over
individual commands or commanding officers who understood that their actions would lead to
tragedy."
On the evening of September 17, the Russian Ilyushin IL-20 with 15 crew on board was
circling over the Idlib de-escalation zone on a special reconnaissance mission, when four
Israeli F-16 fighter jets left their country's airspace and flew over the neutral Mediterranean
waters towards the Syrian coast. The Israeli Air Force gave the Russian side less than a
minute's warning before dropping the precision-guided glide bombs, leaving virtually no time
for any safety maneuvers, Konashenkov said, calling such actions "a clear violation of the
2015 Russian-Israeli agreements."
Moreover, the Israeli military failed to provide the location of their jets or properly
specify their targets, claiming they were going to attack several 'industrial facilities' in
northern Syria, close to the Il-20's area of operation. The misinformation prompted the Russian
Command to order the recon plane back to the Khmeimim air base. The Israeli jets, however,
instead almost immediately attacked the western Syrian Latakia province.
The misleading information provided by the Israeli officer about the area of strikes
did not allow the Russian Il-20 airplane to move timely to a safe area.
Once the Syrian air defenses responded to the initial strike, the Israeli jets switched on
radar jamming and pulled back, apparently preparing for another attack. One of the Israeli jets
then came closer to the Syrian coast and approached the Russian plane, which was preparing to
land at that time.
The Israeli pilot must have been well aware of the fact that the Il-20 has a much larger
radar cross-section than his F-16, and would become a "preferred target" for the
Syrian air defense units, who use different friend-or-foe systems with the Russians,
Konashenkov said. Thus, for the Syrians, the reconnaissance plane could appear as a group of
Israeli jets.
"The Israeli jets saw the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 and used it as a shield against the
anti-aircraft missiles, while they carried on maneuvering in the region,"
Konashenkov said during the news briefing.
The actions of the Israeli fighter pilots, which led to the loss of life of 15 Russian
servicemen, either lacked professionalism or were an act of criminal negligence, to say the
least.
Finally, the Israeli jets carried out their maneuvers in the immediate vicinity of the
Khmeimim air base, which is used both by military and civilian aircraft, including passenger
planes, the ministry's spokesman emphasized, saying that the reckless actions of the Israeli
pilots could also have posed a threat to any passenger or transport aircraft that may have
happened to be there at that time.
Israel 'crossed the line of civilized relations' with
'ungrateful response'
Israel's negligent behavior amounts to a flagrant violation of the very spirit of
cooperation between the countries, Konashenkov stated, noting that Russia has never broken its
commitment to the deconfliction agreement – it has always informed Israel about their
missions in advance and has never used its air defense capabilities against the Israelis, even
though their airstrikes sometimes put the Russian servicemen in danger.
Russia has sent as many as 310 notifications to the Israeli Air Force Command, while the
latter appeared to be reluctant to show the same level of commitment, notifying only 25 times
even though its jets carried out more than 200 strikes against targets located in Syria over
the past 18 months alone.
"This is an extremely ungrateful response to all that has been done by the Russian
Federation for Israel and the Israeli people recently," Konashenkov said.
The Russian military supported the Syrian military operation in the Golan Heights to
"ensure there were no shelling attacks on Israeli territory" anymore, thus allowing
the UN peacekeeping mission to resume patrolling of the contested border between Syria and
Israel after "a six-year hiatus."
Russia also managed to secure the withdrawal of all Iran-backed groups from the Golan
Heights to a "safe distance for Israel," more than 140 kilometers to the east of
Syria, the spokesperson said, adding that this was done at the request of Tel Aviv. "A
total of 1,050 personnel, 24 MLRSs and tactical missiles, as well as 145 pieces of other
munitions and military equipment were withdrawn from the area," Konashenkov told
journalists.
The Russian Defense Ministry had provided assistance in preserving Jewish sacred places and
graves in the city of Aleppo. Putting Russian Special Forces soldiers' lives in danger, it also
organized the search for the remains of some Israeli servicemen that died during the past
conflicts in an area where the Syrian forces were combating Islamic State (IS, former ISIS)
terrorists at that time.
In view of the above, the hostile actions committed by the Israeli Air Force against
the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 aircraft cross the line of civilized relations.
While Israel said that it mourned the deaths of Russian troops, the IDF statement following
the incident shifted all the blame for the incident solely on Damascus, and its Iranian and
Lebanese allies.
"We have been operating prudently and responsibly and only in cases where we've had no other
choice. So nothing has changed or will change. This is our policy," Israeli Defense Minister
Avigdor Lieberman told the local radio station Kan in an interview published Sunday
morning.
"We won't let Syria be turned into a main Iranian military facility against the Israeli
state. We continue to act and we have all the necessary means and opportunities to this end,"
he noted.
Flicker of Hope for Effective Dialogue
According to Lieberman, Israeli military servicemen continue to pin their hopes on good
communication, which they established with Russian military units in Syria three years ago to
avoid potential conflicts.
"The whole incident is under examination and control. We have an ongoing dialogue. The
general picture and facts are all clear, and I think the situation will be resolved," Lieberman
said.
Israel has yet to admit guilt in the Il-20 downing. It disputes Moscow's statements over the
issue, according to which, Israeli F-16 fighter aircraft used the Il-20 as a shield their
latest air attack on Syria and essentially put it in the line of retaliating fire opened by the
Syrian air defense.
Tel Aviv, meanwhile, claimed the anti-aircraft shooters fired "chaotically and haphazardly"
having failed to make sure there were no Russian aircraft in the fire zone. According to
information provided by the Israeli side, by the time the Il-20 was destroyed after being hit
by a Syrian S-200 missile, the four F-16s were already well on their way home.
Israel said it has been allegedly targeting Iranian military facilities in Syria, with Iran
and Syria flatly denying the claims.
On September 17, a Il-20 military plane disappeared from the Russian radar screens, while on
its way back to the Syrian airbase Hmeymim, which lies 35 kilometers away from the
Mediterranean shore. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, at around the same time,
four Israeli F-16 military jets attacked Syrian targets in Latakia, having informed the Russian
side just one minute prior to the attack.
The ministry went on to state that by hiding behind the Russian jet, the Israeli pilots
thereby subjected it to an attack by the Syrian air defense units, which left a total of 15
Russian military servicemen killed in the aircraft destruction.
"... "none of this would in any way exculpate the Israelis for the very simple reason that had the Israelis warned the Russians on time this entire tragedy might have been avoided even if the prime culprits are cowardly Israeli pilots, less than competent Syrian air defense crews or too trusting Russians. " ..."
"... No, none of this would have happened if Putin had refused to allow his bosom buddy Nazinyahu to bomb his ally, Syria, with impunity. ..."
"... It is definitely worth reading not only the quoted article but other commentaries, because the inventors of shutzpah are now collectively dancing on the graves of the 15 Russian officers. ..."
@J Since
the Russians largely control the Syrian antiair defenses, one could also conclude that they
share the responsibility in downing their own aircraft. Maybe the Israelis overestimated
Russian readiness and response capabilities. In Tzahal, one minute is a lot of time. As Putin
said, it was a tragic fuckup.
In Tzahal, one minute is a lot of time.
No, this can not be true!!! I always knew that Tzahal operates on millisecond increments.
In fact, it can also travel back in time. You know, because they are that good.
"none of this would in any way exculpate the Israelis for the very simple reason
that had the Israelis warned the Russians on time this entire tragedy might have been
avoided even if the prime culprits are cowardly Israeli pilots, less than competent Syrian
air defense crews or too trusting Russians. "
No, none of this would have happened if Putin had refused to allow his bosom buddy
Nazinyahu to bomb his ally, Syria, with impunity. Russia is being treated with contempt
by the zionazi pseudostate for the simple reason that the Zios were bombing a "target" right
next to the Russian Hmeimim airbase.
Nor is the loss of the Il 20 something minor. It was a very expensive, highly capable
system manned by extremely well trained, hard to replace, valuable crew, each of whom had
many years of irreplaceable experience. Do *not* attempt to whitewash that.
The Saker needs to stop defending the zionazi stooge and capitalist roader Putin. His
"restraint" is making Russia look like a pushover and emboldening its enemies. What is the
Amerikastani aircraft carrier Harry Truman doing in the Mediterranean right now, a health
cruise?
There is absolutely nothing stopping Putin from ordering his bosom buddy Nazinyahu to
immediately stop all bombing of Syria, on the pain of having his zionazi war criminals being
shot out of the air. What exactly is preventing Putin from doing this, assuming that the S400
actually works as advertised? Can any of the professional Putinite propaganda purveyors, as
despicable a breed as the Trumpets, Obamopologists, and Hillarybots, explain?
First, let me start by a very simple and primitive question:
Why in the world has nobody considered that the Israelis might have truly
screwed-up?
'Careless' is the word I would use. Israelis are being careless, because they
never have to pay a price for their aggressions and their mistakes. Putin encourages this
carelessness , when he refuses to impose costs on Israel. The lesson Israelis are
learning from this incident is that Russia is weak, and Putin has "little choice", but allow
Israelis free hand in Syria. This is what Israelis newspapers are saying, check this out:
https://twitter.com/DanielS22647562/status/1043070311355301889 It is definitely worth
reading not only the quoted article but other commentaries, because the inventors of shutzpah
are now collectively dancing on the graves of the 15 Russian officers. Just as they
placed sofas to watch the destruction of Gaza. Thank you for the link Felix.
Much better reading Harretz than the awe of our two Armchair Marshals, Saker and
Martyanov, at the level of the IDF delegations sent to Moscow, to ensure that the Russian
military does not get any "reserved" ideas (reserve the right to huff & puff).
Here is my favorite piece from this Jewish BS machine above:
unconfirmed sources from Syria have reported that Russian military police abducted and
are brutally interrogating officers and soldiers from the Syrian air-defense battery that
fired the fateful missile
But, but I naively thought that the Russians discovered a secret link which proves that
those now brutally interrogated Syrians did 911 , not the Iraqis accused before.
I do understand that Putin does not have any good option now and that his premature and
dumb commentary about the "accident" was for his own ass-covering not to protect those Jews
who made such a total ass of him. But whenever the Russians die, as when the SU-24 pilot
died, he learned nothing and continues on making and trusting the deals with
the sponsors of terrorism.
Finally, I do note that the smart people, such as Israel Shamir, keep their mouths shut
for now, till the fog clears and the emotions blow-over. I am looking forward to his next
article to understand the feelings in the Russian military regarding Putin.
@Kiza It
is definitely worth reading not only the quoted article but other commentaries, because the
inventors of shutzpah are now collectively dancing on the graves of the 15 Russian officers.
Just as they placed sofas to watch the destruction of Gaza. Thank you for the link Felix.
Much better reading Harretz than the awe of our two Armchair Marshals, Saker and
Martyanov, at the level of the IDF delegations sent to Moscow, to ensure that the Russian
military does not get any "reserved" ideas (reserve the right to ... huff & puff).
Here is my favorite piece from this Jewish BS machine above:
unconfirmed sources from Syria have reported that Russian military police abducted and are
brutally interrogating officers and soldiers from the Syrian air-defense battery that fired
the fateful missile
But, but I naively thought that the Russians discovered a secret link which
proves that those now brutally interrogated Syrians did 911 , not the Iraqis accused
before.
I do understand that Putin does not have any good option now and that his premature and
dumb commentary about the "accident" was for his own ass-covering not to protect those Jews
who made such a total ass of him. But whenever the Russians die, as when the SU-24 pilot
died, he learned nothing and continues on making and trusting the deals with
the sponsors of terrorism.
Finally, I do note that the smart people, such as Israel Shamir, keep their mouths shut
for now, till the fog clears and the emotions blow-over. I am looking forward to his next
article to understand the feelings in the Russian military regarding Putin.
Much better reading Harretz than the awe of our two Armchair Marshals, Saker and
Martyanov
Do you want me to prove, using you as an example, for all other present here hysterical
non-men, that none of you have any idea of what was and is going on by me merely introducing
a simple tactical-technical parameter which defines tactical reality in any radar systems.
I'll give you hint–it is reported to all military radar operating units (from ground to
the sea) and is logged and accounted for (with proper adjustments in procedures) every single
day, sometimes on 12 hour increments. This factor could be of prime importance, especially
against the background of old S-200 AD complex. Are you game? Then we will compare who are
real "armchair strategists" here.
Much better reading Harretz than the awe of our two Armchair Marshals, Saker and
Martyanov
Do you want me to prove, using you as an example, for all other present here
hysterical non-men, that none of you have any idea of what was and is going on by me merely
introducing a simple tactical-technical parameter which defines tactical reality in any radar
systems. I'll give you hint--it is reported to all military radar operating units (from
ground to the sea) and is logged and accounted for (with proper adjustments in procedures)
every single day, sometimes on 12 hour increments. This factor could be of prime importance,
especially against the background of old S-200 AD complex. Are you game? Then we will compare
who are real "armchair strategists" here. This is some irrelevant technical mumbo-jumbo. Kiza
was making a comment about political side of the issue:
Israelis have no respect for Russia and Putin. They feel emboldened by Putin's weak
reaction.
@Felix
Keverich This is some irrelevant technical mumbo-jumbo. Kiza was making a comment about
political side of the issue:
Israelis have no respect for Russia and Putin. They feel emboldened by Putin's weak
reaction.
This is some irrelevant technical mumbo-jumbo.
Well, then I am sure you will treat your future illnesses (God forbids you to become ill,
stay healthy) at Voodoo doctors, since all this medical mumbo-jumbo is irrelevant. I heard
Haiti Voodoo healthcare is great and very-very affordable.
Kiza was making a comment about political side of the issue:
Only few posts here are real comments, most of them is some hysterical weeping in an
adrenaline deprived organisms upon understanding that Israel is not going to be destroyed
immediately by Russians. Hence, your posts included, either hysterical reactions or trolling,
mostly, sorry for being blunt, by people who have zero knowledge of Russia in general, and
her military in particular. So, a wonderful unification of pseudo-patriots and all kinds of
ignorant trolls happened. It is rather interesting to observe.
As if in any other country this situation is different...
Putin priority was avoiding larger confrontation, which if spun out of control can lead to WWIII. And I think he was right
trying to downplay the situation.
This is terribly empty ramble and it is time to stop reading this rambler. But before I stop I will quote myself:
My critique of Putin is not that he did not kill back the Turks, the US military and the Israelis, it is that he keeps making
agreements with the non-agreement capable sponsors of terrorism and then entrusts the lives of his soldiers to such agreements.
In other words, the four Israeli planes should have never been tagged "friendlies", which was obviously the Putin's standing
order to the Russian military based on his agreement with these sponsors of terrorism. The rest in this tragic event for Russia
is what usually happens in war – fear, huge and costly mistakes, and incompetence all around.
Saker, I hope you and Martyanov both, as a reward for your insightful writing about the panicking Israeli pilots, get to
read your recent articles to the 10-year old daughter of one of the Russian officers killed.
You two are the Marshals of all the Armchair Generals that you laugh at. With "intellectuals" such as you, now I understand
why the Russian always die in wars like cattle and win wars by sacrificing the most/only valuable human capital (why do they call
such 'a Pyrrhic victory' when it should be called 'a Russian victory'). I will be watching the Russian Mayday parades with photos
of killed relatives in a totally different light from now on – those people in the photos are the victims of the Russian "elite"
and the self-declared Russian Armchair Marshals.
The unfortunate Syrians are the beggars, so they cannot be choosers who their "friends" are.
Since the Russians largely control the Syrian antiair defenses, one could also conclude that they share the responsibility in
downing their own aircraft. Maybe the Israelis overestimated Russian readiness and response capabilities. In Tzahal, one minute
is a lot of time. As Putin said, it was a tragic fuckup.
"I tried to post a short commentary suggesting that before we jump to conclusions about anything, we ought to wait for the fact
to come out."
Well Putin didn't waste anytime jumping to the conclusion that it was an "accident," right? I blame him for being too quick
to say that.
And I blame him for allowing the Israeli attacks to continue for so long. Something bad (for Russia) was bound to happen eventually.
And they're war crimes, aren't they? It would've been okay with everybody if it was a Syrian plane that went down?
"So why is everybody assuming that the Israelis carefully planned the whole thing?"
King David Hotel, USS Liberty, 9/11, etc.
"First, let me start by a very simple and primitive question: Why in the world has nobody considered that the Israelis might
have truly screwed-up?"
When someone "screws up" during the commission of a crime, a crime "evincing a depraved indifference to human life" and someone
dies because of it, it's known in Western jurisprudence as a "depraved heart murder" not an "accident."
"At this point, I need to ask another question: what would the Israelis gain from shooting down the Il-20?"
You could also ask for example: what did they gain by running over Rachel Corrie with a bulldozer? And the answer would be
the same IMO: They do what they do because they're evil.
Mr. you are a very naïve person. One doesn't have to be a
Putin or Jew hater to see with clarity. In fact we the gojims are the ones
who is in our face is being hated, and planed to be destroyed. They declaring
a new world order. The very word of new implies a departure from what we
have today, a culture of nation states. The very word of order implies Dictatorial slavery.
According to Assange , we are the last generation of free people.
The western countries being overrun by primitives who are the biological
weapons of the elites, one economical crises and everybody is against everybody,
until only the well protected elites remain. The murder of a highly trained
Russian military persons were premeditated planed murder. In earlier
analysis of yours you called this form of warfare " leapfrogging " . And the
hollywooding of the Izraeli leadersip, is a part of deceiveing the gojim.
The did what they do best they draw blood of the gojim, and getting away
with it again with an explanation, playing on our fears of not to escalating further.
Putin calling it an accident, he remind me of an other historic figure
who's name was Marshall Emanuel Grouchy. He was Napoleon's trusted general
in 1815 at waterloo , when he heard the battle drums he started to march with his
units to the opposite direction away from the warzone, so the French army was slathered.
What does it count if they are the best and bravest and have a best missile systems,
if they are being mislead and betrayed? Try to analyzing that.
What's funny is that The Saker wants to stick to the "facts" but all he gives is, when you read his article closely is apologizing
for the failure of Russian policy with regards to the Israelis, a mix of contradictions, Putin-ifallibility and the usual "Russia
good, rest meh"
@hunor Mr. you are
a very naïve person. One doesn't have to be a
Putin or Jew hater to see with clarity. In fact we the gojims are the ones
who is in our face is being hated, and planed to be destroyed. They declaring
a new world order. The very word of new implies a departure from what we
have today, a culture of nation states. The very word of order implies Dictatorial slavery.
According to Assange , we are the last generation of free people.
The western countries being overrun by primitives who are the biological
weapons of the elites, one economical crises and everybody is against everybody,
until only the well protected elites remain. The murder of a highly trained
Russian military persons were premeditated planed murder. In earlier
analysis of yours you called this form of warfare " leapfrogging " . And the
hollywooding of the Izraeli leadersip, is a part of deceiveing the gojim.
The did what they do best they draw blood of the gojim, and getting away
with it again with an explanation, playing on our fears of not to escalating further.
Putin calling it an accident, he remind me of an other historic figure
who's name was Marshall Emanuel Grouchy. He was Napoleon's trusted general
in 1815 at waterloo , when he heard the battle drums he started to march with his
units to the opposite direction away from the warzone, so the French army was slathered.
What does it count if they are the best and bravest and have a best missile systems,
if they are being mislead and betrayed? Try to analyzing that.
One doesn't have to be a Putin or Jew hater to see with clarity
So, you do then, I assume, have now or had in the past Form 1A clearance to know how and what Tactical and Operational Manuals
describe in terms of setting Air Defense systems, establishment of communications networks ah, never mind–I am sure "Jews The
Almighty" bible of yours gives all necessary answers. Including describing issues of angular separation of targets, principles
of development of command decisions from tactical to operational level and other irrelevant crap.
"... Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments on the matter were much more Measured. His detractors, in their usual hysterical cacophonies, called him "soft". As always with Putin though, one must read between the lines. Ever the defuser, ever the peace-maker, he called what took place a "chain of tragic and chance circumstances". But later on, he made it clear that it was a "serious incident" that "requires a response". ..."
"... And then said in no uncertain terms, "As for retaliatory measures, they will be aimed first and foremost at further ensuring the safety of our military personnel and facilities in Syria. And these will be steps that everyone will notice." ..."
"... Zionists played such an odious role in the Russian-Georgian War. ..."
"... massacred the crew of the USS Liberty with the goal of blaming Egypt and starting WW3 between–you guessed it–the US and the Soviet Union. We were only minutes away from a US nuclear strike on Cairo when the Americans realized it was an 'Israeli' attack. ..."
"... Gulf War was 'Israeli' terrorist Yitzhak Shamir threatening to drop an atom bomb on Baghdad ..."
The
'Israelis' really done did it now, didn't they? Flirting with WW3 like never before. After
spending billions of dollars over the last several weeks across the Zionist media, telling the
world that Baby-Seal-Clubbing, Puppy-Eating Assad was about to gas
totally-vegan-completely-democratic-pro-LGBTQIA Al-Qaeda terrorists in Idlib–with
chemical arms he doesn't have, mind you–they were completely caught off-guard with a
massive bombshell.
Vladimir Putin had negotiated a demilitarization agreement with Neo-Ottoman
"sultan" Erdogan, thus, at least in theory, averting a potential bloodbath in the last Takfiri-occupied city in Syria. The prospect of the war on the hardened Syrian battlefields
finally being over proved too much for the voracious colonizers in "Tel Aviv". They simply
couldn't bear seeing all of their miserable efforts, arming, training, financing and giving
medical treatment to these Wahhabi mercenaries for nearly 8 years now being OFFICIALLY kaput.
Panicking, they mobilized, and in a throwback to the 1956 Tripartite Aggression against
Egypt, they enlisted the help of an old ally: the French ZOG. France launched missiles from the
Mediterranean to throw off Syria-Russian radar trajectories while the 'Israelis' went forward
with a huge aerial assault, bombing Lattakia, Tartous, Hama and Homs all at once. As of now, at
least two Syrian soldiers have been martyred and about a dozen others have been wounded. The
most copious number of casualties however came from the Russian side. An Ilyushin IL-20
electronic surveillance plane was downed in the carnage and 15 Russian servicemen were
murdered. 'Israel' decided to play a game of Yahoudling Roulette and used stealth tech to
shadow the Russian vessel so when Syrian air defenses responded, they'd hit the Ilyushin IL-20
, not the 'Israeli' occupation air force's murder-plane. And that's exactly what happened.
The Russian military, which laid out the anatomy of the aggression in full, was fuming, "We
consider these provocative actions by 'Israel' as hostile. Fifteen Russian military service
members have died because of the irresponsible actions of the 'Israeli' military." Russian
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu phoned genocidal war criminal Avigdor Lieberman and is said to
have screamed his head off at the 'Israeli' War Minister. He further revealed that 'Israel'
called in its attack plans on the Russian-'Israeli' deconfliction line JUST ONE MINUTE before
the attack–another blood-soaked confirmation that it wasn't an "accident" as the
artificial "Tel Aviv" regime is claiming but a deliberate act of war. Shoigu also told
Lieberman that Russia "reserves the right to use further countermeasures" in response to the
slaughter of its men. That Lieberman has refrained from speaking on it and IOF itself is yet to
apologize reveals the level of culpability at the highest levels of the Zionist occupation's
"defense" establishment.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments on the matter were much more Measured. His
detractors, in their usual hysterical cacophonies, called him "soft". As always with Putin
though, one must read between the lines. Ever the defuser, ever the peace-maker, he called what
took place a "chain of tragic and chance circumstances". But later on, he made it clear that it
was a "serious incident" that "requires a response".
And then said in no uncertain terms, "As for retaliatory measures, they will be aimed
first and foremost at further ensuring the safety of our military personnel and facilities in
Syria. And these will be steps that everyone will notice." This could mean Russia finally
stepping into the throes of the Resistance-Axis-'Israeli' battle and 86ing 'Israeli' aerial
movements in Syria. It could mean heavier and more advanced weapons not just to the Syrian
state but Iran too. Not that the Islamic Republic needs it of course, as its weapons industry
is robust and brilliant, but extra hardware never hurts. We shall soon see.
The Halakhic-Talmudic entity is obviously acting out of desperation and Kabbalistic
irrationality. Thus, why would Vladimir Putin, who is trying to END the war on Syria, give the
'Israelis' an excuse to EXPAND the war on Syria in a maddening scenario that will lead to more
tragedies, more destruction and more death? It's just not in his ideological DNA. Art of War
101: Win without fighting. Putin gets that–more so than ever with Syria on the verge of
total liberation from Takfiri terrorism.
Find Out More > 64,337
He doesn't need to subscribe to some cliched concept of machismo, puff out his chest and
behave like a brute just to satisfy the bloodlust of armchair geopolitical "big shots" who
don't know their feet from their earlobes, let alone how to confront the Dajjalic-Judaic NWO.
The man's trying to avert a nuclear catastrophe–and with 'Israel' and its Samson Option
in the mix, that's not hyperbole. Granted, Russia has every right to blast 'Israel' to Jahannam
for this atrocity and truth be told, the payback's truly been coming ever since the Zionists played such an odious role in the Russian-Georgian War. But the
'Israelis' executed a warmongering trick And Russia found calm in the heat of the moment,
managing not to fall for it. No need to blow the impending triumph now, so it once again boils
down to what Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei calls Strategic Patience–derived from Imam
Hassan (A.S.)
Indeed, the aim of 'Israel' here was as blatant as anti-Gentile racism in the Old Testament
and the Talmud: The Zio-Tumor planned for Russia to respond on the spot to the aggression,
taking out 'Israeli' aircraft and then drawing the US into a wider war Or In an even more
cataclysmic calculation, Russia being enveloped in the chaos, mistakenly hitting France and
triggering a full-blown NATO retaliation. Either way, the Jews' designs were to bring about a
third world war, rendering the US, Russia and the Resistance Axis destroyed or bled out beyond
repair, with nobody but 'Israel' left to pick up the pieces and claim global kingship. Lunatic
behavior you say? Nutty Netty finally throwing out the Goy baby blood with the matzoh? You
wouldn't be entirely wrong. But you wouldn't be entirely right either. For provocations of this
nature–those that would lead to a nuclear conflict between two superpowers–are a
time-tested Zionist tradition.
The reason for the monstrous Gulf War was
'Israeli' terrorist Yitzhak Shamir threatening to drop an atom bomb on Baghdad if the
US didn't rein in Saddam Hussein after the maneuver against Kuwait. And how many times have you
heard Zionists outright say they wanna see mushroom clouds over Tehran? From vile millennial
commentator Jacob Wohl to neocon wacko John Bolton, Hebrew University orientalist Vladimir
Mesamed to casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson. This type of psychopathy is the lifeblood of
World Zionism.
Ultimately, while Putin's coolness has temporarily staved off an escalation, what should be
elucidated for him and the entire Russian establishment now more than ever is that 'Israel' has
no respect for Russia's people inside Syria or anywhere else for that matter. "Deconfliction"
and "partnership" are but illusions that 'Israel' flexes out of convenience and ignores when
inconvenient. According to the Jewish supremacist thinking that guides the illegitimate
'Israeli' regime, a Gentile is a Gentile. Period.
And any Gentile helping out the enemies of "Eretz Yisrael" will be a dead Gentile.
Especially when they're Orthodox Christian Russians assisting a unified bloc of Husseini
Muslims and fighting as one unit to defeat Zio-Imperialism. Zion's next move depends entirely
on Russia's retaliation. One thing's for sure: This was as brazen as brazen gets and
"chosenite" arrogance aside, it is not a card that can be played again. In the mean time, we
recite Al-Fatiha for the souls of the SAA and Ilyushin IL-20 Lattakia martyrs and pray that the
Idlib demilitarization agreement holds. Syria and its allies have all suffered enough.
This RF position regarding Israel is utter rubbish and sadly brave Russian heroes have
paid the ultimate price. When did Israel ever attack Al-Nusra and IS or the reverse?
Israel and FUKUS are allies to these head-choppers in Syria.
Israel attacks the very forces that are at war with the head-choppers: Syria, Iran and
Hezbollah.
How on Earth did the RF leadership get so confused?
I am not at all impressed.
All my respect to the lions of the Russian armed forces in Syria who are being lead by
donkeys.
I have this to say the IDF and the French frigate seemed to coordinate their attack to
get the desired outcome. This means they would have had to have a schedule of the IL 20's
flight plans. This Israeli attack was well planned. I wonder if the Russian government
realizes this. I have read nothing to say that they did realize it. And the Israeli's
must have well coordinated it with the French who are some of their best friends. Russia
needs to break off relations with the French and especially the Israelis. Israel is a
friend to no one.
Britain has readied its troops on the island of Cyprus for a collective strike by Western
countries on Syria.
The Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak states that, the blow will be inflicted by the troops of
the United States, Britain and France within the next 24 hours.
According to sources, a total of 22 targets have been identified in Syria, which will be
destroyed by Western aviation – these are facilities in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Hama,
Deir ez Zor, and Rakka. In particular, it is planned to strike the area of the
Russian military base in Tartus.
"... The evidence released by the Russian Defense Ministry on the circumstances of the Il-20 downing left no doubt that the Israeli Air Force was to blame for the tragedy, the lawmaker stressed, adding that it was impossible to challenge this conclusion "based on an impartial minute-by-minute analysis of the facts." ..."
"... According to Klintsevich, the list of gross violations of mutual agreements committed by Israeli pilots occupies more than one page and the ministry pointed to each of them. ..."
MOSCOW (Sputnik) - Russia may take steps to prevent further incidents involving the Israeli
Air Force jets and has all the capabilities to close the Syrian airspace for Israeli military
aircraft if it becomes necessary, a member of the Russian parliament's upper house's defense
committee, Frants Klintsevich, told Sputnik on Sunday.
"The essence and meaning of our response is to completely eliminate the possibility of such
incidents in the future. We, for example, have all the necessary resources to completely close
the Syrian airspace for Israel, and this is only one of the options," Klintsevich
said.
WATCH 3D
Reconstruction of Il-20 Downing in Syria, Released by Russian MoDThe evidence released
by the Russian Defense Ministry on the circumstances of the Il-20 downing left no doubt that
the Israeli Air Force was to blame for the tragedy, the lawmaker stressed, adding that it was
impossible to challenge this conclusion "based on an impartial minute-by-minute analysis of the
facts."
According to Klintsevich, the list of gross violations of mutual agreements
committed by Israeli pilots occupies more than one page and the ministry pointed to each of
them.
"How will this tragedy affect Russia's relations with Israel? It is clear that it is up to
the leadership [of Russia] how to address this issue, and I can only make assumptions. I think
that the decision will be made taking into account the long-standing good relations between
Russia and Israel, and therefore a sharp u-turn like the abolition of a visa-free regime, not
to mention something more serious, is hardly possible here," he said.
In general, Klintsevich believes that much will depend on Israel's reaction to the
conclusions of the Russian Defense Ministry.
"In connection with this, I consider the statement of Israeli Defense Minister [Avigdor
Lieberman], who said today that
the attacks on Syria would continue , to be counter-productive. This rhetoric can only
aggravate the situation, I do not think that this development of events meets the interests of
Israel," the Russian lawmaker concluded.
Russian Defense Ministry
Says Israeli Air Force Responsible for Il-20 Downing (VIDEO) Earlier in the day, the
Russian Defense Ministry reiterated, during a briefing on circumstances of the September 17
downing of a Russian Il-20 plane in Syria, that the Israeli Air Force was to blame for the
incident. According to the ministry, the actions of the IAF pilots, which led to the death of
15 Russian servicemen, either lacked professionalism or were an act of criminal negligence.
Military sources reported on Saturday the discovery of the remains of the Russian IL-20
aircraft shot down 27 kilometers west of the Syrian province of Latakia, and remains of 15
soldiers on board the aircraft.
Along with the Syrian town of Banias, ships of the Russian Navy are carrying out in the
Mediterranean Sea a search operation for the lifeless bodies of the soldiers, whose plane was
completely destroyed last September 17.
Moscow blamed Tel Aviv for the incident, considering that at least four F-16 fighters used
the IL-20 as a parapet to evade the fire of the Syrian antiaircraft defense, which caused an
S-200 battery to fire on the Russian aircraft.
Next, let's assume that this is simply the typical case of Israeli arrogance (not a myth!)
and that they decided to inform the Russians as late as possible. Does that at all entail that
the maneuver of the Israeli F-16s pilots to seek cover from the S-200 missile was something
they had planned in advance? Does anybody bother to look at the actual (as opposed to
Hollywood) record of the Israeli Air Force during past wars when they were actually challenged
by a reasonably capable air defense? There is a detailed discussion (in Russian) about this
here which can be summarized like this: as soon as the Israelis start losing aircraft their
martial prowess rapidly vanishes. Now please recall this: the Israelis have had recent losses,
some admitted, some denied, but there is no doubt that they are tense and very concerned.
Bottom line: I would fully expect the Israeli pilots to freak out and seek cover as soon as
they are told by their warning system that they are being painted by a radar in tracking mode
(the S-200 has a semi-active radar homing guidance system). If that is the case, and I am
not saying that this is the only possibility, then the fault is of the Israeli
pilots, not of their commanders or the Israeli state as a hole. Yes, the command responsibility
is the one of the state, but not the guilt for having engaged in such an evasive maneuver
(besides, knowing the
price placed by Israeli on goyim lives , this would be just so typical, would it not
)
At this point, I need to ask another question: what would the Israelis gain from shooting
down the Il-20? They sure ain't gonna frighten the Russians (Russian military don't scare easy)
and the Il-20 will be replaced. Scaring the Iranians or Hezbollah? Forget it – not
happening. Maybe there was a real lucrative target that they destroyed? Yes, maybe, be so far
we don't know anything about this. So what would be the point?
Then the "sister question": what would the Israelis risk by deliberately shooting down a
Russian EW aircraft? Well, in theory, they would risk having their aircraft shot down and their
airbases engaged with Russian missiles. That is highly unlikely, I will admit, and the Israelis
probably understand the Russians very well (many of them being from Russia). But could they be
sure that the local commanders would not order an immediate retaliation (as their
current rules of engagement do authorize them to!)? Let me remind everybody that this Spring,
the USA was not so sure at all, and following the words of the Russian ambassador that " not
only missiles but their launchers would be destroyed " the USN and Air Force decided to
shoot as little as possible and from as far as possible. As for the British sub, its captain
decided to cancel the planned missile strike entirely (they were being shadowed by two Russian
subs). Seems to me that the potential risks of that kind of operation would be pretty high,
while the potential rewards rather unclear.
Those who insist that this was a deliberate Israeli act need to come up with a halfway
credible explanation not only for how this was done, but also why this was
done.
Now, like many others, I despise the Israeli racist, genocidal rogue state with all my
heart. But that does not prevent me from being capable of imagining a scenario in which the
Israelis simply screwed-up. Believe it or not, but my disgust for Zionist ideology does not at
all entail a boundless belief in some Israeli infallibility.
Finally, let look at this: today (Sept 20 th ) an IDF delegation led by Air Force
Commander Maj.-Gen. Amikam Norkin is in Moscow. Also participating in the trip are the Head of
the Foreign Relations Division, Brig.-Gen. Erez Meisel and other officers from the
Intelligence, Air Force and Operations Divisions. Does anybody believe that all these officers
went to Moscow just to thumb their noses at the Russians? Or maybe they all traveled to Moscow
to present some totally non-credible excuses which will only infuriate the Russians
further?
My guess is that they have something exculpatory (at least in part) to show.
If the Russians conclude that the Israelis did it deliberately, I will support a strike on
Israeli air bases. If the Russians conclude that the Israelis cannot be trusted to abide by any
agreements (which I think is indisputable), then I think that the Russians should declare an
air exclusion zone over the Russian forces (a 100km radius or so). I also think that it is high
time to keep a pair MiG-31BMs on 24/7 combat air patrol high over Syria (they can come quite
close to replacing a much more expensive and vulnerable A-50U AWACS).
At this time (Sept 20 th 20:37 GMT) all they have
announced is that " both sides emphasized the importance of the states' interests and
the continued implementation of the deconfliction system" . If that is all that the
Russians decide, then I will find it wholly inadequate and I will predict a further surge in
frustration against not only the government, but against Putin himself. But, for the time
being, we need to wait and see what the Russian investigation will reveal. Only then can we
begin cheering Putin or calling him names.
There is also this possibility: the Russians would decide on an air exclusion zone and tell
the Israelis, but both sides would decide to keep this secret in order for Israel to save face
(because if the Russians declare an air exclusion zone, this will create a safe heaven for
Hezbollah and all the other militias which would be a political disaster for Bibi Netanyahu).
So we might never find out.
Finally, I want to add one more thing which is rarely, if ever, mentioned.
The S-200 is a pretty old air defense system. We also know that it does not have a Russian
IFF. However, the Russians have declared several times that the Russian air defense network and
the Syrian one were integrated. This is what best explains, at least in part, the very high
number of US cruise missiles intercepted in April. The problem is that the way the S-200 (and
most modern air defense systems) works is that the S-200 is fully integrated into a larger air
defense network administered by automated air defense management systems which is operated by a
higher echelon air defense command. This means that the Syrian air defense crew did not simply
detect the incoming missiles and fire off one of their own. At the very least, this decision
was taken by a higher echelon Syrian air defense command. Now we know that the time was
extremely short and, hence, the Russian air defense personnel might not have had the time to
take protective action, especially not when dealing with a large, slow and vulnerable moving EW
aircraft (the fact that this aircraft flew un-escorted is definitely a Russian mistake!).
Still, we know that the Russians have many early warning capabilities which the Syrians
do not have (AWACS, space based, shipborne radars, over-the-horizon radars, etc.) and there is
a pretty decent chance that somebody could have done something to prevent what happened. True,
since the Israelis and Russians had an agreement, the Russians therefore classified the
Israelis as "non-threat", but it does not take a genius to understand that four Israeli F-16
flying towards the Latakia Governorate are up to no good and that this warrants immediately
going on full alert.
Can The Saker tell us what right Israel has to bomb targets in Syria ? The Russians were
invited in to save Syria as were the Iranians and Hezbollah but Israel is on the side of the
attackers of Syria .
You are absolutely correct.
USA responded in similar fashion when Israel sunk "Liberty" with greater loss of american
lives.
Most of Israeli population are God's chosen people and can do no wrong.
God placed them on Earth to watch over us and even gave us his son to civilize us.
Praise the Lord!
@Bill65
Can The Saker tell us what right Israel has to bomb targets in Syria ? The Russians were
invited in to save Syria as were the Iranians and Hezbollah but Israel is on the side of the
attackers of Syria . One of the first courses in law school is intentional torts. The intent,
an act expressing that intent, and damages are the only requirement in many torts. The tort
of Battery; intent does not have to be an intent to cause the harm that actually occurred..
Merely expressing an intent in some kind of action satisfies the element of intent; it does
not matter to assignment of liability if the actual harm was unintended.
In criminal law: A holds up a bank, five cops show up, B shoots his gun at the ceiling,
the bullet bounces and kills one of the cops,and starts a fire in the bank A is probably
guilty of murder, Arson and attempted robbery.
so if while intending to shoot target victim A, the shooter instead accidentally or
otherwise shoots innocent non targeted victim B, the intent requirement for Battery is
satisfied. Hence Israel, and each and every one of its leaders, might be liable. w/o regards
to a showing that the intended target was unharmed, while a different innocent was
unintentionally harmed. Its the harm caused by an expression of an intention that produces
the liability. It does not matter that the harm happened to an unintended party.
Trespass to chattel, interference with a chattel which results in injury to the possessor
or injury to a person or thing in which the possessor of the chattel has a legally protected
interest(like life and assets) results in liability for trespass. If Israel without privilege
touches a Indian Snake Charmers Snake, causing Snake Charmers Snake to bite a Russian
bystander, Israel probably liable for the injury to the Russian bystander.
But there is more, the doctrine of transferred intent applies. Here the intent in four other
torts (battery, assault, trespass to land or false imprisonment) can be substituted to
satisfy the requisite intent for trespass to chattel. If Israel intends to destroy Syrian
dams with weapons and missiles, and instead causes a Syrian response that kills Russian
soldiers and planes, the tort would hold Israel liable for the damage to the plane and the
deaths of the Russians. IANAL. There is a lot to this intent thing, but generally, I
understand, when intent is established, especially if unlawful trespass or criminality is
part of the expression of the intentional act, that Intent element in the tort would be
satisfied.
The Tort of Extreme and Outrageous conduct; behavior "that reaches beyond all possible
bounds of decency; atrocious, utterly intolerable in a civilized community ( such as invading
a sovereign nation; attacking its assets and killing its inhabitants). Here the expression of
intent is in the outrageous behavior, the persons harmed might not even be known to the
person who engaged in the Tort of Extreme and Outrageous conduct.
IANAL and I would appreciate it if a lawyer would make these point clear and clarify my
understanding of these principles, especially as they might apply to the situation at
hand.
My point here is the intent and transfer of intent principles suggest Israel intended
unauthorized trespass, acts of aggression and war, and it is indifferent to liability for the
crime or damages that conducting war against Russia was unintended.
Moreover, it seems to me unlikely that Israel would plan an attack, and not coordinate it
with Russia, when such an attack was so close to Russian Assets and Russian Personnel. Israel
had to know the risk of killing Russians and destroying Russian assets was likely
(Scienter?), which suggest to me Israel intended to use Syrian technical limitations as a
means to punish Russia for protecting Syria. [ Res ipsa Loquitur comes to mind]. Wonder how a
Jewish court and Jewish judge would rule on this one?
"... Israel forces should never have entered the Syrian airspace to begin with. Syrians wouldn't then needed to defend themselves. ..."
"... Russians had precise data that showed Israel's F-16 set up the Russian plane to be shot by the S-200. ..."
"... Israelis only gave less than a minute warning. ..."
"... The Russian military man interviewed in the article clearly stated that the only thing that the Russians were waiting to hear from that meeting was Israel recognizing it was to blame. All the rest (data from investigation, blaming Syrians, etc) was useless. Russia had already made up its mind and had its own very detailed data. ..."
"... The interview ends with a question about what will the consequences/reaction be . The reply is ""We are military men. We have the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, we have the Minister of Defense. Whichever order from them we shall receive, such and we will execute". ..."
"... If the order from Shoigu is to deliver S300 anti-missile defence systems to Syria (as the Russian interviewers must surely be expecting), then the actions of the Israeli F-16 fighter pilots will have dealt a severe blow to Israel and Satanyahu's machinations over the years, kissing up to Moscow, will have come to nothing. And 15 Russian military personnel will not have perished in vain. ..."
Interesting interview of a member of the Russian delegation about how the meeting between the
Russian and Israeli Air Force Commanders went: https://www.kp.ru/daily/26885.7/3928752/
Main points:
– Russians reiterated the official position that " The blame for the downed Russian
plane and for the death of the crew lies entirely on the Israeli side ". ENTIRELY.
– Israelis blamed it on the Syrians/Assad.
– Russians rejected this argument, countering with the following
points:
Israel forces should never have entered the Syrian airspace to begin with.
Syrians wouldn't then needed to defend themselves.Russians had precise data that
showed Israel's F-16 set up the Russian plane to be shot by the S-200.Israelis only
gave less than a minute warning.
Then concluded with repeating the position "The blame lies entirely on the Israeli side
".
– Israeli said their data showed their F-16 didn't set up the Russian plane, and was
in fact back in Israel by the time the plane was shot down.
– Russians flat out said their had contradictory data and relied on them and on the
Syrian data.
– Israeli played ignorance about the one minute warning. Supposedly they weren't
aware Russian planes were flying at that time and needed warning.
– Russians said they could not believe the F-16 radars did not see the Russian
plane, and went back to their three points (Anyway F-16 had no right to be in Syria, Russian
had data that showed F-16 set up their plane and rules of pre-warning were not followed).
– The Russian military man interviewed in the article clearly stated that the
only thing that the Russians were waiting to hear from that meeting was Israel recognizing it
was to blame. All the rest (data from investigation, blaming Syrians, etc) was useless.
Russia had already made up its mind and had its own very detailed data.
The interview ends with a question about what will the consequences/reaction be . The
reply is ""We are military men. We have the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, we have the Minister
of Defense. Whichever order from them we shall receive, such and we will execute".
If the order from Shoigu is to deliver S300 anti-missile defence systems to Syria (as
the Russian interviewers must surely be expecting), then the actions of the Israeli F-16
fighter pilots will have dealt a severe blow to Israel and Satanyahu's machinations over the
years, kissing up to Moscow, will have come to nothing. And 15 Russian military personnel
will not have perished in vain.
And FUKUS, who had been expecting a Russian attack on the French frigate the Auvergne so
that Article 5 in the NATO treaty could be invoked, or new sanctions against Russia declared
and passed, will be left with egg on their faces.
The Russian reaction to the whole incident seems very like its earlier reaction when the
IOC banned Russia from sending its team to the Winter Olympics earlier this year: go along
with the ban, do the opposite of what your enemies expect you to do (which is to react in the
heat of the moment and do something in the short-term that you will later regret in the
long-term) and put your enemies in positions where they not only have to justify their stance
against you but fail spectacularly in doing so because their stance was based on lies and
spite in the first place.
And yet on other sites (RI, Sputnik, RT) many are howling about "Vlad" the Coward.
I think many who hold such an opinion are, if not trolls, then 12-year-old American (USA)
kids (mostly), who were weaned on computer video games such as "Modern Warfare" and who have
been imbued with the notion that "might is right" and that "God is on our side" etc.
Nonsense – Russia is weak, and this amounts to an approval of Israeli attacks by Putin.
Those F-16's must be faster than any other version built, or else the S-200 has an ungodly
long time of flight, if the Syrians fired it against an attack but the Israeli planes were
already back over their home base by the time the missile reached their previous position.
What does the Syrian radar history say?
According to the Russians, the Syrian radar history is different from the Israeli version. "-
Израильтяне
выворачивались:
"Когда
сирийская
армия
выпустила
ракеты,
попавшие в
российский
самолет,
израильские
самолеты ВВС
уже находились
на израильской
территории". А с
нашей стороны
тут же
прозвучало, что
у нас есть
другие данные.
Другие
документы. Есть
они и у
сирийского
командования
ПВО. Тут надо
основательно
сверить данные.
Буквально по
минутам и
секундам.".
So Russia has the timeline of the events down to the second and all of it shows that the
Israeli pilots set the IL-20 under the fire of the Syrian S-200. The Israeli also perfectly
know what they did. It looks like Russia is letting the Israeli "investigate" as a way to
give Israel a very small window of opportunity to recognize its guilt and take action
itself.
I suspected as much; If the Syrian and Russian intercept records agree, then there is a good
chance the Israelis faked their radar data and flight records. But then, they fancy
themselves the masters of such clever fakes that they can make anyone do what they want them
to do.
By the way Mark, the Russians had the same reaction you had to the Israeli claim:
"Когда они это
сказали, наши
чуть со стульев
не попадали" ("When they said
that, our guys in the delegation almost fell off their chairs").
Israelis are acting like some crooked lawyer trying to get their crooked client out on a
technicality. "Oh, we didn't know We tried to warn them blah blah blah "
They can blow as much smoke as they like, but the bottom line is, their planes should not be
flying over Syria. Period.
Oh, everybody knows the reason they are up there and dropping bombs: Trying to do some harm
to Hezbollah. But Hezbollah are invited guests within Syrian space. Israelis are uninvited
guests. And everybody knows what Alexander Nevsky had to say about uninvited guests!
The Russian plane downing incident is not yet settled between Moscow and Jerusalem, despite
President Vladimir Putin's relatively forgiving statement and despite Israel's sending its air
force commander to Russia on Thursday morning.
... ... ...
Asked Thursday morning whether shooting down the Russian aircraft would affect the Israeli
air force's freedom of action over Syria, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman performed more
evasion maneuvers than the Russian Ilyushin pilots did on Monday night. Lieberman, who was
interviewed on Army Radio's program "Dekel-Segal," failed to provide a real response. No doubt
the party mainly responsible for the incident is Syria, whose air defense operated
"unprofessionally and irresponsibly," as Lieberman described it. But Moscow does not appear
inclined to forgive – and will likely try to extract practical advantages from Israel's
embarrassment.
Israel is convinced it has good explanations for what happened. The air force's inquiry
showed that the Syrians launched massive anti-aircraft fire when the Israeli planes were
already back in Israel's sky. The warning to the Russians, Israel says, was given in keeping
with the time frame agreed upon between the two states since they set up the mechanism to
prevent friction between Israeli and Russian aircraft in September 2015.
The Russian plane was shot down mainly because of a communication failure – between
Israel and Russia, between the Russian aerial control system or between the Syrians and their
Russian patrons. Israel denies the first possibility – and this is probably what the air
force chief Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin told his hosts. Moscow must direct its complaints toward
the Syrians. If there's truth in the reports that arrests were carried out in Syria's aerial
defense ranks, it appears Russia has been doing that as well. Intelligence Minister Yisrael
Katz said on Thursday that Putin refused to answer a call from Syrian President Bashar Assad
right after the incident.
Israel hopes the Russians will make do with closing the aerial space for a week, and not
impose further restrictions – such as banning Israel from flying near their bases in the
north of Syria, in a way that could limit the Israeli presence in Syria's air space to Damascus
and south of it. According to foreign media, some of the Israeli air strikes were carried out
from a great distance outside Syria's territory. However, such a Russian restriction could spur
the Iranians, the Assad regime and Hezbollah to establish an attack-safe space in the north of
Syria. In the long run, it could also enable Iran to continue to strengthen its military hold
in this region and expand the weapon smuggling operations to Lebanon.
Peter Johnson
September 22, 2018 at 3:36 pm It seems to me that the safest place for a small single
engine light plane to position itself, once picked up by enemy radar, would be on the far
side of a large Soviet-Era 4-engined kerosene-guzzler. A basic heat-seeking Soviet missile
like what Syria is probably operating would simply home in on the only heat source it can
see -- the big hot target covering the light little jets.
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Go down to the bit that starts:-
– What kind of plane is it, IL-20?
Interesting plane . and it's rather likely that the S-200 uses a wee bit more
advanced than "a basic heat-seeking Soviet missile."
Yaridanjo
September 22, 2018 at 1:54 pm This scenario means that the Israelis teamed with the
French in an attempt to get the Russians to attack the French frigate. Since France is a
NATO. ally, the USA would have to attack the Russians which is what Israel wanted to happen.
Again, Edgar Cayce was right about Russia being the 'hope of the world' as Putin did not fall
for this trap.
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Yaridanjo
September 22, 2018 at 1:49 pm Kind of makes sense to me: http://82.221.129.208/pages/.yz0.html
Uh-oh: Analysis indicates France shot down Russian plane ON PURPOSE.
"That Russia noted French missile launches but didn't say what or who they hit. And before
the Russians said anything about the attack the French denied they had any involvement in the
attack.
Instead, Russia went along with the story the U.S. et.al. prepared in advance, which doesn't
fit what facts we know about the situation, that Syrian Air Defenses shot down the IL-20 by
mistake.
Both the French denial and the U.S. statements about Syrian air defenses being the culprit
came before anything official came from the Russians.
My comment: This quote is from a caption in the main report, which is not very long and has
all the details. I suggest this as a definite read. Key: the Russians confirmed that
supplementary friend/foe targeting systems did not fail, even though the S-200 did not have
them embedded within the system. The supplemental systems prevented the Syrians from doing
the shoot down despite the missile system not having them itself. The supplemental systems
confirmed it was not the Syrians that shot it down."
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Russia has begun stepping up operations off the coast of Syria following the downing of a
military aircraft, media outlets in Cyprus reported on Thursday. Russia reportedly decided to
close areas near Cyprus to air, land and sea movement from Thursday until next Wednesday for
the sake of military operations. Sources in Israel confirmed the report
An Israel Defense Forces delegation headed by the commander of the air force, Maj. Gen.
Amikam Norkin
departed Thursday to Moscow to present the findings of its inquiry into the incident.
<
The best explanation I've heard yet is that Israel and the US (who had full knowledge and
okayed the raid) expected the Russians to sink the French frigate that was blasting away.
Kind of cynical but c'est la vie. Article V would be immediately be invoked and the US and
Nato would have their casus bellum to smash Syria and send the Russians packing.>
If it's true then Putin handled things brilliantly. The Israelis have pissed away any
existing trust between them and Russia with their one minute warning and did exactly that
thing that everybody's going on about, namely hiding behind the IL20 to draw the S200. It's
unlikely they'll enjoy the freedom in the future to target Iranian and Hezbollah targets in
Syria at their leisure.
Because the false flag was was exposed and then their threat of attack if there was any
violence in Idlib was stymied by Putin and Erdo's agreement the US is left with few options.
The most obvious one would be a full-on unprovoked attack against Syria. I don't think the
American people would be happy about that. They are getting really tired of all the bullshit
in the ME.
Please don't give Trump a pass because the boogeyman deep state made him do it. He's the
fucking president and they don't get no passes.
Peter @71. That's my reading as well. We came within a whisker of WW3, and are probably
lucky we can still type. Once the Israelis are put in their place then Putin needs to have a
strong word with Trump. And of course the frogs will get payback.
By initiating an attack on the Syrian province of Latakia, home to the Russia-operated
Khmeimim Air Base, Israel, France and the United States certainly understood they were flirting
with disaster. Yet they went ahead with the operation anyways.
On the pretext that Iran was preparing to deliver a shipment of weapon production systems to
Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli F-16s, backed by French missile launches in the Mediterranean,
destroyed what is alleged to have been a Syrian Army ammunition depot.
What happened next is already well established : a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft,
which the Israeli fighter jets had reportedly used for cover, was shot down by an S-200
surface-to-air missile system operated by the Syrian Army. Fifteen Russian servicemen perished
in the incident, which could have been avoided had Israel provided more than just one-minute
warning before the attack. As a result, chaos ensued.
Whether or not there is any truth to the claim that Iran was preparing to deliver
weapon-making systems to Hezbollah in Lebanon is practically a moot point based on flawed
logic. Conducting an attack against an ammunition depot in Syria – in the vicinity of
Russia's Khmeimim Air Base – to protect Israel doesn't make much sense when the
consequence of such "protective measures" could have been a conflagration on the scale of World
War III. That would have been an unacceptable price to achieve such a limited objective, which
could have been better accomplished with the assistance of Russia, as opposed to NATO-member
France, for example. In any case, there is a so-called "de-confliction system" in place between
Israel and Russia designed to prevent exactly this sort of episode from occurring.
And then there is the matter of the timing of the French-Israeli incursion.
Just hours before Israeli jets pounded the suspect Syrian ammunition storehouse, Putin and
Turkish President Recep Erdogan were in Sochi
hammering out the details on a plan to reduce civilian casualties as Russian and Syrian
forces plan to retake Idlib province, the last remaining terrorist stronghold in the country.
The plan envisioned the creation of a demilitarized buffer zone between government and rebel
forces, with observatory units to enforce the agreement. In other words, it is designed to
prevent exactly what Western observers have been fretting about, and that is unnecessary
'collateral damage.'
So what do France and Israel do after a relative peace is declared, and an effective measure
for reducing casualties? The cynically attack Syria, thus exposing those same Syrian civilians
to the dangers of military conflict that Western capitals proclaim to be worried
about.
Israel moves to 'damage control'
Although Israel has taken the rare move of acknowledging its involvement in the Syrian
attack, even expressing "sorrow" for the loss of Russian life, it insists that Damascus should
be held responsible for the tragedy. That is a highly debatable argument.
By virtue of the fact that the French and Israeli forces were teaming up to attack the
territory of a sovereign nation, thus forcing Syria to respond in self-defense, it is rather
obvious where ultimate blame for the downed Russian plane lies.
"The blame for the downing of the Russian plane and the deaths of its crew members lies
squarely on the Israeli side," Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said.
"The actions of the Israeli military were not in keeping with the spirit of the
Russian-Israeli partnership, so we reserve the right to respond."
Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, took admirable efforts to prevent the blame
game from reaching the boiling point, telling reporters that the
downing of the Russian aircraft was the result of "a chain of tragic circumstances, because the
Israeli plane didn't shoot down our jet."
Nevertheless, following this extremely tempered and reserved remark, Putin vowed that Russia
would take extra precautions to protect its troops in Syria, saying these will be "the steps
that everyone will notice."
Now there is much consternation
in Israel that the IDF will soon find its freedom to conduct operations against targets in
Syria greatly impaired. That's because Russia, having just suffered a 'friendly-fire' incident
from its own antiquated S-200 system, may now be more open to the idea of providing Syria with
the more advanced S-300 air-defense system.
Earlier this year, Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reached an agreement
that prevented those advanced defensive weapons from being employed in the Syrian theater. That
deal is now in serious jeopardy. In addition to other defensive measures, Russia could
effectively create the conditions for a veritable no-fly zone across Western Syria in that it
would simply become too risky for foreign aircraft to venture into the zone.
The entire situation, which certainly did not go off as planned, has forced Israel into
damage control as they attempt to prevent their Russian counterparts from effectively shutting
down Syria's western border.
On Thursday, Israeli Major-General Amikam Norkin and Brigadier General Erez Maisel, as well
as officers of the Intelligence and Operations directorates of the Israeli air force will pay
an official visit to Moscow where they are expected to repeat their concerns of "continuous
Iranian attempts to transfer strategic weapons to the Hezbollah terror organization and to
establish an Iranian military presence in Syria."
Moscow will certainly be asking their Israeli partners if it is justifiable to subject
Russian servicemen to unacceptable levels of danger, up to and including death, in order to
defend Israeli interests. It remains to be seen if the two sides can find, through the fog of
war, an honest method for bringing an end to the Syria conflict, which would go far at
relieving Israel's concerns of Iranian influence in the region.
CoCosAB , 1 minute ago
The TERRORISTS keep doing the same **** all the time... And ***** PUTIN keeps cool!
Fecund Stench , 2 minutes ago
'There will, however, be some form of no-fly zone and as Vladimir Putin stated Russia will
take "the steps that everyone will notice."'
Failure to notice bespeaks complicity in the Ziomedia.
toady , 12 minutes ago
"...if it is justifiable to subject Russian servicemen to unacceptable levels of danger,
up to and including death, in order to defend Israeli interests."
Surely a few dozen Russians isn't comparable to all the Jews that died in the
holocaust.
Just as all the Jews that died in the holocaust aren't comparable to all the the Russians
that died in wwII.
isn't religion and the victim mentality a fun game to play?
JoeTurner , 13 minutes ago
Israel must have its lebensraum.....
bh2 , 45 minutes ago
Putin is not going to initiate WWIII over Syria or any military action within it. The
outcome in Syria affects Russian national interests. But unlike Crimea, it does not affect
any of Russia's vital national interests.
rejected , 35 minutes ago
If Syria was to shoot down one (1) American jet with one (1) pilot the US would respond
like it was Pearl Harbor and Syria for sure isn't vital to America's national interests
unless one considers results like Libya a national interest.
rejected , 1 hour ago
I seriously doubt Putin will allow the S-300 to Syria. Like the US, Russia is controlled
by the 5th column Jews inside Russia itself except the control is not as complete as in the
US. The Russian plane is Russia's USS Liberty.... and it is possible, and IMO that it was
France that shot down the plane. The fact that they fired missiles at the same time and that
has disappeared down the memory hole is very suspicious.
The West is out of control They talk International law but consider them selves above it.
Israel, France, UK, US have no 'right' to attack Syria. They have no right to be within
Syrian borders. They are now all allied with the terrorists and provide them with weapons.
Israel actually provides for their wounds at Israeli hospitals.
By the old definition of terrorist, it is the West that fits the description.
As for Mr. Putin,,, He has done what was unthinkable a short time ago. He has allowed the
murder of Russians. Not once,,, not twice,,, but now three times with only a whimper. He
actually defended the aggressors this time. This will only serve to make them double down. If
any more Russians are murdered it will be he who is guilty by lack of action. Even Somalia
fought back when the US tried an attack.
The author here defends Putin as acting with a cool head as the author, like so many
cowards thee days, dismisses those fifteen lives. He will also be responsible when the next
batch of Russians are sacrificed for world peace as the Western marauders, the US especially,
murders their way to world domination like Germany's Hitler and France's Napoleon.
It was Russia that saved the world from those two dictators and is why Russia stands proud
today. It is Russia's history to savagely defend Russians and Russia. Today with thousands of
Russians killed by Ukrainian Nazis supported and armed by the West (MAGA) and now Russians
killed in Syria by the West with little to no response from Russia other than "Its against
international law" and authors like this that nonchalantly discard Russian lives as necessary
for world peace.
Mr. Putin just needs to hand over the keys to Russia,,, for world peace of course.
Right. One must ask why Putin is acting this way. He has actually taken Trump off
the hook. If the offensive had gone in Trump would have been under a lot of
pressure to take military action when the WH drama played out. The DMZ agreement
prevents that, and now he takes this soft line over this bit of Israeli
cleverness that cost Shoigu 14 men for no good reason, Curious. One might think
he does not want to rock the boat before the mid term.
And so it starts. Russia must attack Israel, no -- she must obliterate it, Putin is "soft",
the world is coming to an end, Zionists are in control of Kremlin, Russia turns another cheek.
And on, and on, and on. The chorus of noble warriors with the evils of Zionism is getting
louder with each day. Behind this hysteria surrounding the tragedy of Russian VKS' IL-20
somehow crucial and widely publicized news have been ignored completely. It is no surprise they
were ignored by all kinds of "specialists" in strategy, politics, and armchair strategists (I
am one myself). The news are pretty simple. Lt. General Alexander Ionov, former Deputy Chief of
Main Staff of Russian Air Force from 1991 through 2001, stated to popular Russian media Zvezda
that it is
guaranteed that Syrian Air Defense forces were not provided with compatible IFF equipment and
codes .
For those who don't know what IFF (Interrogator Friend-Foe) is -- it is electronic system
which provides both a defense against friendly fire and easy radar identification of friendly
forces. On older radar friendly forces would usually be marked with arches (below or above)
radar marks of the targets and that is how one knows how not to shoot at them. The IFF
technology is extremely sensitive as are the "codes" on which it runs. It wasn't provided, and
for a good reason, to Syrian Forces. So, the question, in this case which will be asked by
laymen is: but what about "full integration" of Russian and Syrian Air Defenses. It is a
legitimate question.
... ... ...
Reaction of Israel following the events is telling -- she went into the full
damage control mode with Netanyahu urgently calling Vladimir Putin. He offered the Commander of
Israeli Air Force to be immediately on his way to Moscow, all diplomatic, informational,
government channels between Israel and Russia got immediately engaged.
This was a very telling sign of a real panic and confusion on the Israeli side which also
immediately offered condolences. This is not an act of war, as many would love it to be, some
out of often justified hatred of Israel hoping for Russia to dispose of this "evil", others
purely out of adrenalin rush in anticipation of TV picture of people killing each other.
But the issue of interaction between Russia and Syrian forces is real and it is not easily
addressed for a number of purely military and cultural reasons. But some conclusions can
already be made:
1. There will be no "annihilation" of Israel, nor will there be any shooting war between
Russia and Jewish State as many would love and lust it to be;
2. There will, however, be some form of no-fly zone and as Vladimir Putin stated Russia will
take " the
steps that everyone will notice ." Obviously this important statement by the head of
Russian State got drowned in the ocean of rage and speculations, and confusion I may add, but
this has become a familiar pattern by now.
3. Issue of ROE and interaction -- the most important one. Specialists must review protocols
and tactical procedures. Engagement caveats must be strictly enforced.
... ... ....
In the end, this tragedy, should serve as a real serious lesson and, in a military sense a
warning that one better stick to the agreements or things may spiral out of control very fast .
Israel decided that it is allowed to break agreements. Israel should ask Turkey what happens
when one does Russia wrong -- Turkish Air Force knows it too well after shooting down Russian
SU-24. It got grounded. Now Turkey is a situational ally of Iran and Russia in the region. As
per larger geopolitical sense -- just wait and see. But I made myself explicit on that matter
not for once. I might as well repeat myself -- dogs bark, but caravan passes on
.
This story looks more and more strange: Il-20 was a military plane. why russina interceptors
were not in the air immediately after Israeli planes approached Il-20? Were everybody drunk in
the command center?
Russia has no good options here. Russian military retaliation brings the absurdly
pro-Israeli American public opinion and Washington establishment into play. Doing nothing
signals weakness and invites more provocations
It's technically possible the Russian Il-20 surveillance plane was downed only as a result
of stupidity and incompetence on the Israeli and Syrian side, and without a devious Israeli
plan to set it up. Militaries almost always are among the stupidest and incompetent of all
government bureaucracies so it's in the realm of possibility.
Nonetheless, the fact that Israel this time failed to give adequate warning to Russia is a
strong indicator the IDF at the very least wanted to use the Russian plane there to cover their
fighters, which it must have known would put it at a certain amount of risk. If so then I think
Israel may have done it in safety of knowing that if a Russian plane is blown out of the sky by
Syrians -- even if the IDF is ultimately responsible -- it's a win-win for Israel.
Think about it. Just hours after calling off the Idlib offensive in a massive concession to
Erdogan and indirectly to the West, Putin is repaid by a Russian military plane being shot down
as result of an Israeli attack on Syria. Talk about egg on face. When Turkey ambushed and shot
down a Russian Su-24 on the Syrian-Turkish border in November 2015, Moscow limited its response
to economic sanctions. This eventually helped moderate the extent of Turkish ambition in Syria.
End to tomato imports however won't do much to impress Israel.
If Putin sticks to economic and diplomatic means of retaliation alone Russia will look
comparatively weak. This will embolden the hawks in Washington who will have an easier time
selling the idea pushing Russia around in Syria and hitting Assad does not actually risk WW3
– thus increasing the chances of what Israel really wants in Syria; more chaos and for
the war to never end.
At the same time, if Russia retaliates militarily instead, this – thanks to the
unparalleled amount of sympathy Israel enjoys in the US – also boosts the likelihood of
what Israel wants. Imagine for example that Russia declares its forces in Syria will from now
on under certain conditions actively participate in the defense of host country against Israeli
airstrikes and actually fired against them the next time. What effect would that have? A likely
result would be a war fever in the US. Wacky Protestant Evangelicals, Russia-hating Liberals
and Trumpian Israel-Firsters could all unite under the banner of protecting tiny, pluck,
democratic Israel from the menacing Russian bear. It would be like the narrative on the 2008
Georgian-Russian war (in which Georgia attacked the even tinnier South Ossetia along with
Russian peacekeepers) except it would resonate far more so because it's sainted Israel.
For Russia its US relations would deteriorate even more, more US financial would be a
certainty (it already is, but the pace would be ramped up), and the chance of US muscle
stretching in Syria and the associated dangers of a US-Russian clash in the region would go up.
Meanwhile for Israel the result would be a flurry of popular and diplomatic support from the
Americans with a possible bump in military aid. Not a bad deal at all huh?
Inevitably whatever happens some will end up criticizing Putin for not doing enough to
restore Russia's military honor. Other will question the wisdom of setting up shop in Syria in
2015 when Israelis and the Americans were already deeply involved in the conflict militarily
and involving Russia in this dangerous mess in the first place. Both will be correct.
Correct also will be those who will note that Russia's intervention (any innocent civilians
it killed or maimed aside) in Syria did a lot of good, but that neither Russia's nor Syria's
position is all-powerful and that sometimes it's wiser to swallow your pride and keep your eyes
on the finish line.
Of course, others will say that with Idlib offensive postponed and potentially called off
for good, Putin may already be showing signs he may be happy, or may think it wiser, to leave
things only half-finished.
Israeli F-16 really " hid " behind our Il-20. Not a fairy tale. We and the Syrians have
documents of objective control. But "why Il-20 is not covered by our fighters" - this is now
the leadership of the Ministry of defense and understands... It is a reasonable question.
On the one hand, we clearly stepped on the same rake.
And on the other Il-20 worked in the area of reach of our base in Hamim and his defense was
enough of the modern s-400.
But the fact of the matter is that no one attacked him.
This is a tragic coincidence, multiplied by the provocation of the Israelis. I think
conclusions will be drawn. And, in the near future.
This story looks more and more strange: Il-20 was a military plane. Why Russian interceptors were not
in the air immediately after Israeli planes approached Il-20? Were everybody drunk in the command center? Or have orders to
stand down like in 9-11.
Notable quotes:
"... - What in your opinion, as a professional, could be the cause of the error of the Syrian air defense that brought down our IL-20? ..."
"... - By the way, does our Il have a system warning of a missile attack from the ground or from the air? ..."
"... - Why then did our Il not make an anti-missile maneuver, at least? ..."
"... - And how do you picture it? ..."
"... "But they say that we had such a deal with the Israelis as well?" ..."
"... - What kind of plane is it, IL-20? ..."
"... - What tasks could our Il-20 solve in the eastern part of the city, where he died? ..."
"... - Information has already leaked that the IL-20 allegedly tried to minimize the effectiveness of Israeli missile attacks on Latakia. Where are our military facilities? ..."
- What in your
opinion, as a professional, could be the cause of the error of the Syrian air defense that brought down our IL-20?
- There is in aviation
such a tricky reception - "air camouflage". It seems that the Israelites used it. They gathered over our huge
IL-20 on top of a sort of "stack", because of which the marks from both our reconnaissance aircraft and the
Israeli F-16 merged. And
the Syrian S-200 could not strike at them at that moment, since the "own-alien"
identification system, sewn into the brains of anti-aircraft missile systems, did not allow it. But this system is
only set up to prevent the rocket from launching on its own, but when it is already released, it can not be
re-targeted.
However, the
rocket itself is so arranged that its homing head catches a stronger signal. And the IL-20 reflecting the surface
is much larger than that of the fighter. Naturally, the missile grabs the most powerful target and goes to it .
And then when the
Israeli fighters changed course, on the screen of the C-200 there were marks of "stranger". And the Syrian air
defense opened fire. Here, I am sure, our plane and ran into a "friendly" missile.
In addition, do not
forget that the S-200 is an old weapon.
And the training of Syrian air defense specialists, to put it
mildly, often leaves much to be desired ...
- By the
way, does our Il have a system warning of a missile attack from the ground or from the air?
- Of course have.
- Why then
did our Il not make an anti-missile maneuver, at least?
- And how do you
imagine such a maneuver of a huge airy machine? In which the area of only one wing is 14 square meters! This is
not a fighter that can tinker away and escape from the enemy's rocket ...
In any case, the
perpetrators of the tragedy are the Israelis. They provoked her. And they must bear responsibility for this.
- And how
do you picture it?
- Simply ritual
statements, of course, will be too little. Our loyalty was dismissed by the Israelis! In a day they freely invade
the airspace of sovereign Syria . And when we are asked, why our air defense in Syria allowed this, we somehow
answer that we cover only our bases Khmeimim, Tartous and our own naval group in the Mediterranean.
After this
tragedy, it would be logical to declare that we close the sky of Syria from uninvited guests and we will knock
them down as enemy planes.
In this case, of course, to close the space over Syria we would need a three
times denser concentration of air defense systems.
Well, as for the
armies and their allies, we allowed them to fly only in strictly defined zones and they do not yet poke their nose
into other areas.
"But they
say that we had such a deal with the Israelis as well?"
- Yes there
is. Israelis bypass our facilities. They mainly "hammer" their enemy - "Hezbollah", but at the same time they
strike not only military but also civilian Syrian targets. There are already a lot of sacrifices. It is time to
put them in their place.
- What
kind of plane is it, IL-20?
"Oh, I can tell you
about it all day!" Both in the school, and in the academy passed the exams. Yes, and in Syria in the "womb"
climbed ... But briefly, it is a plane of electronic intelligence and electronic warfare.
It is equipped with an
infrared scanner, optical sensors. There is also a lateral radar.
There is a station of
detailed electronic intelligence "Kvadrat-2" and radio intercept equipment "Cherry". At our VKS such planes of
pieces 20. And all of them have passed a deep modernization. Our "Ilyusha" have well proven themselves in Syria,
coordinating the attacks of the Russian Air Force on terrorists.
He also has another
unique "chip" - he can correct the flight of the cruise missiles "Caliber" when they approach the target ... Do
you remember the launch of our missiles from the water area of the Caspian Sea? Their attacks would be less
accurate, if not for the high-class work of the IL-20 operators. I will say more. Our ground-attack planes and
bombers are precisely reaching the target, also with the help of IL-20 equipment. But enemy locators do not see
them at this time, its anti-aircraft missile systems simply do not observe anything on their screens, thanks to
the operation of the radio-electronic countermeasure equipment installed on our reconnaissance aircraft ...
What else? Still, the
IL-20 has four powerful engines. They can provide the aircraft with a speed of up to 700 kilometers per
hour. Empty it weighs somewhere under 34 tons. Can climb to a height of 10 kilometers ...
- What
tasks could our Il-20 solve in the eastern part of the city, where he died?
- Such a universal
machine is capable of solving many problems - from opening the air situation to jamming ...
-
Information has already leaked that the IL-20 allegedly tried to minimize the effectiveness of Israeli missile
attacks on Latakia. Where are our military facilities?
I have seen one tweet (unconfirmed) that says that Putin has closed air and Sea space off
Syrian coastline. Logical, if they are looking for the remains of their plane with highly
sensitive electronics on board. Also I suspect that this "exclusion zone" may become
permanent.
------
General note; The above article is also on Zero hedge BUT; comments don't come up. I hope you
are all aware that comments can be silenced at anytime and not necessarily by the web site
itself. Happened to me about two months ago (FT). On contacting them, it "appears" it was due
to something in my computer ad blocker. For various reasons this is probably not the reason.
See also what happened to Paveway - I think censorship is far more prevalent than we assume.
(Paveway; my sympathy, I found it was the frustration of not being able to post - that was
difficult to support !)
-----
@85
It is also possible that the French were suckered in, easy enough probably to send a message
saying "all systems go for an attack on Syria", by whoever wanted them to fire. ie Israel or
US.
(@83. I had written the post above before your post "surfaced" and I saw it.)
"The-French-frigate-shot-it-down" is yet another blatant diversion/dilution/dispersion
narrative from the Masters of Narrative and their minions elsewhere and here, who know better
than the Russian MoD. Far from a binary choice in the movie, for each red pill the
pill-pushers push hundreds of blue ones.
Yes, Zionism started out an atheist movement with a Dawkinsesque contempt for Judaism. The
Zionists only glommed onto Judaism in 1967 when they saw how a religious angle could enhance
their war propaganda.
Everyone (including me) assumes way too much but I can't help interpret some recent stuff I
read elsewhere (not here) as to imply that everyone is encouraged to object to a white lie so
as to possibly encourage others to also consider it to be a white lie in the best interests
of the entire world. So I'll do just that.
Spudski & Tony Cartalucci and then also pogohere, viking3, and Kondor speaks sense,
at least from this perspective.
I feel no obligation to believe we know the truth about what happened nor do I believe the
Russians truly expect anyone with critical thinking skills to necessarily believe that the
fake jews (by any name or entity) managed to do anything but send some missiles into Syria.
How close or far from the truth such an official line is doesn't seem all that important if
what was at stake was a provocation and escalation into a much bigger war. Russia obviously
and sanely does not want a bigger war because they know it will easily be the biggest and
last war.
If the "dragging missiles" story is what it takes to do so then so be it. The story seems
to require that:
- the missile IFF is locked on launch rather than actively reassessed until impact
- there is no destruction mechanism from missile control
- the missile doesn't distinguish between a fighter jet at some speed and a slow plane
- the missile potentially (depending on whether those jets buzzed the EW plane closely)
didn't distinguish between chasing something far away and something suddenly being right in
front of it
- the EW plane was powerless against an old-ish or at least export version of a missile
produced by themselves
- the EW plane does not have a range of flares and evasive procedures
- the EW plane couldn't EW it out of existence
- the EW plane wasn't aware of the situation
- the EW plane wasn't aware of being locked on by the missile at any point
- the EW plane wasn't aware of the possibility of such
- the Russian (not Syrian) control of the integrated systems (both Russian and Syrian) as
well as the superior Russian situational awareness in the region's airspace just sat idly by
and didn't do anything between the launch and the missile coming anywhere close to the
vicinity of the EW plane
To me it's a fucking tall order to believe all those things when instead it could be -- as
examples -- :
- the fake jews shot it down
- the boiling frogs shot it down (figuratively run by a fake jew)
- the fake americans shot it down (figuratively run by a fake jew)
- the poor brits shot it down (figuratively run by a fake jewess)
- someone else did something
- something entirely different happened
At this point I would like to point out that even some fake jews are very nice people, in
fact superbly awesomely nice people much nicer than me, but at the same time some other fake
jews (like those "leaders" alluded to) obviously aren't anywhere close to nice, or sane, or
intelligent, or even have a shred of a sense of actual self-preservation never mind a thought
for the rest of us all.
So no I don't believe the Russians believe that anyone believes they actually want anyone
to believe that story :D
Instead I think they want people like me and at least some others here to believe that
they do know we won't believe it and that we'll instead believe it is whatever was required
for Russia to salvage whatever they could from whatever actually happened. To make thing
better from a bad situation rather than worse.
And then also that they want to encourage us to believe that and tell others we believe
that by claiming they don't want us to do so...
And that is what I'll believe, but I might of course be utterly wrong :D
AFP published a denial by France that it launched any missiles. Since Russia doesn't make
false accusations like the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals, the French are likely lying.
Viewing all the radar telemetry as specialists do would detail the entire attack--and there
were numerous sea and land based Russian radars in action that evening. A question I've asked
and not provided an answer as yet is related to many saying the flight plan of the IL-20 was
known in advance so the attack could be prepared in advance: Was the IL-20 flight plan public
knowledge? I know there're websites dedicated to tracking airplane flights, but do they
include military aircraft (I looked at Plane Flight Tracker and Flight Radar24, which only
seem to track civilian craft)?
Does knowing there was a deception plan involving the IL-20 made ahead with NATO collusion
make any real difference in either the short or long term? Perhaps for the long term as the
faulty policy's already been modified by establishing the no fly zone.
karlof1 16
From what I have read recently, Russia has a military deconfliction hotline with Israel the
same as they do with US. With the US, this has involved giving each other advanced notice of
flight plans and targets within Syria. The Israeli planes were in international airspace at
the time, but was the IL in Syrian airspace when the attack took place. Russia may well have
been giving Israel notice of Russian flight plans within Syria as part of the deconfliction
agreement.
If the military deconfliction agreement is similar to or the same as that with the US, then
Israel should have given advance notice through that deconfliction channel. Going by
statements by the Russian military and Putin, Israel has abused this agreement as did the US
in their attack on Dier Ezzor.
Info being disseminated/obtained through that channel was one of my unwritten
possibilities, and it's quite likely that the IL-20 did a routine patrol along a similar
route daily thus very predictable. Not much remaining to speculate on now. The policy's been
drastically modified and announced for all to see as promised. I doubt if it will deter
Zionist attacks against Syria from Jordanian airspace, but we'll need to just wait and see
about that. If the French did indeed lie about their involvement, I'd expect their ambassador
to Russia being called to the Kremlin to explain, but I haven't read any notice of that. IMO,
this horse's now beaten to a pulp. At least we learned how many refused to see that Shoigu
and Putin were on the same page thus revealing their previously hidden biases.
The response by some of the regulars was disapointing... same happened in the leadup to
the southwest offensive when many believed Putin had 'sold out' to Netanyahu.
I researched Putin in the months after MH17. He now has a long track record and never
changes. The only thing predictable about Putin in a situation like this is he will pull off
what nobody predicts.
finally got to the bottom of what i wanted to know...a ranking colonel in Russian
military(2nd in command at AD system in HMeimim) gave a briefing(pain to translate)...
The s200 in syria does have a rudementary IFF system...but once it has locked a foe target
and is launched, it cannot be retargeted...it chases its foe...the IDF pilots ran behind the
IL20 and matched speed once they had been launched on...the s200 followed them and detonated
on the largest piece in its target area, the IL20...just like a decoy...
so...the IDF provoked an s200 launch by attacking syria SAA positions and a government
production facility, and then pulled in behind the IL20 to save their own
asses...intentionally destroying it...
that is an outright blatant act of war...no wonder Ru military is MAD...they know what
happened
FWIW, Tony Cartalucci posted an article yesterday on NEO re the latest developments in Syria.
He concludes with the following:
"It is not to Russia's advantage to sink French frigates or expose the full capabilities
of its air defense systems to shoot down a handful of Israeli warplanes to satisfy public
desires for immediate revenge or to protect nonexistent notions of Russian invincibility.
Instead, it is to Russia's advantage to simply win the proxy war in Syria. Just as in 2015
when calls for immediate revenge were made regarding a Turkish-downed Russian warplane,
Syria, Russia, and Iran will continue moving forward – slowly and methodically –
to secure Syrian territory from foreign proxies seeking to divide and destroy the country,
springboard into Iran, and eventually work their way into southern Russia.
Avenging serial provocations is infinitesimally less important than overall victory in
Syria. The fate of Syria as a nation, Iran's security and stability as a result, and even
Russia's own self-preservation is on the line. The awesome responsibility of those who have
planned and executed Syria's incremental victory over proxy forces backed by the largest,
most powerful economies and military forces on Earth could greatly benefit from a public able
to understand the difference between short-term gratification and long-term success and how
the former almost certainly and recklessly endangers the latter."
smoothie on his blog has 2 links to the briefing by the 2nd in command of the AD
battalion...i have trouble posting html links that i have had to translate...
regards
The fog of war and geopolitics makes initial responses to the attack on Russian and Syrian
forces recently difficult to assess.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's response seemed timid and was at odds with statements
from his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and more recent statements from Russia's Foreign
Ministry.
Putin backed off on explicitly blaming Israel for the downing of the IL-20 ELINT aircraft
which killed 15 Russian servicemen, but made it clear he holds them responsible for the attack
as a whole.
It was obvious to me that this attack was designed as a provocation to start World War III
in Syria and blame the Russians for attacking a NATO member without proper cause , since the
Syrian air defense forces were the ones responsible for shooting down the plane.
Lying us into war is a time-honored American political tradition, whether we're talking Fort
Sumter, Pearl Harbor or the Gulf of Tonkin. All of these incidents were avoidable by Presidents
intent on getting into a conflict while simultaneously playing the victim card by getting the
other side to shoot first.
I'm sorry if that is a controversial statement but the historical record on them is very,
very clear.
From Strategic Culture:
The setup is pretty clear. Israel and France coordinated an attack on multiple targets
within Syria without US involvement but with absolute US knowledge of the operation to
provoke Russia into going off half-cocked by attacking the inconsequential French frigate
which assisted Israel's air attack.
That would constitute an attack on a NATO member state and require a response from NATO,
thereby getting the exact escalation needed to continue the war in Syria indefinitely and
touch off WWIII.
This neatly bypasses any objections to a wider conflict by President Trump who would have
to respond militarily to a Russian attack on a NATO ally. It also would reassert NATO's
necessity in the public dialogue, further marginalizing Trump's attacks on it and any
perceived drive of his for peace.
My hat is off to Joachin Flores for his analysis here. It is long and involved and worth
your time to read. I will summarize it here. His thesis? Putin is trying to save Russian/French
relations by not naming France as the culprit for the lost plane and the 15 men.
That Russia noted French missile launches but didn't say what or who they hit. And before
the Russians said anything about the attack the French denied they had any involvement in the
attack.
Instead, Russia went along with the story the U.S. et.al. prepared in advance, which doesn't
fit what facts we know about the situation, that Syrian Air Defenses shot down the IL-20 by
mistake.
Both the French denial and the U.S. statements about Syrian air defenses being the culprit
came before anything official came from the Russians.
This is a classic "preparing the narrative" technique used by the West all the time. Seize
the story, plant seeds of doubt and put your opponent into a rhetorical box they can't wiggle
out of with the truth.
MH-17, Skripal, Crimea, chemical weapons attacks in Ghouta, Douma etc. These operations are
scripted.
And Flores is exactly right that this script was going off as planned with one small
problem.
The Russians went along with it.
Russia, and Putin, did the one thing that makes this whole thing look like a frame job, it
accepted the narrative of Israeli malfeasance in the interest of stopping a wider conflict by
accusing and/or attacking a NATO member, France.
Flores makes the salient point that the S-200 friendly fire scenario is highly unlikely.
That, in fact, France shot down the plane, was prepared to accept blame (which it did by
preemptively denying it was involved) and destroy what was left of Russian/French
relations.
Now Russia can use the excuse of Israeli betrayal as justification for upgrading Syria's air
defenses. Citing the very thing that caused the tragic death of their soldiers, antiquated air
defense systems which didn't properly identify friend from foe.
It may be a lie, but since when did that matter in geopolitics?
And as I point out in my other article
This is Israel's worst nightmare. A situation where any aerial assault on targets within
Syria would be suicide missions, puncturing the myth of the Israeli air force's superiority
and shifting the delicate balance of power in Syria decidedly against them.
This is why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worked Putin so hard over the last two
years. But, this incident wipes that slate clean. This was a cynical betrayal of Putin's
trust and patience. And Israel will now pay the price for their miscalculation.
Giving Syria S-300's does not avenge the fifteen dead Russian soldiers. Putin will have to
respond to that in a more concrete way to appease the hardliners in his government and at
home. His patience and seeming passivity are being pushed to their limit politically. This
is, after all, a side benefit to all of this for the neoconservative and globalist hawks in
D.C., Europe and Tel Aviv.
But, the real loss here for Israel will be Russia instituting a no-fly zone over western
Syria. Any less response from Putin will be seized upon by and the situation will escalate
from here. So, Putin has to deploy S-300's here. And once that happens, the real solution to
Syria begins in earnest.
And it means that if the FUKUS alliance -- France, the U.K. and the U.S. -- want an invasion
of Syria they will have to do so openly without a casus belli. And this is something we have
avoided for five years now.
Because lying us into war is how we maintain the illusion of fighting wars of conquest under
the rubric of Christian Just War Theory which supports our national spirit of manifest
destiny.
Ok, what of the assets mixed in with the idlib bunch. The FUKUS has pretty valuable people
in that group and maybe some information the west dos not want made available to Russia. I
think Putin can get some of those people and use them.
There's some other things the US has over there that they don't want anyone to be able to
show on TV
africoman , 18 hours ago
With the downing of the IL-20 ELINT aircraft which killed 15 Russian servicemen, by the
aggressions of Israhell
1st violating sovereign Syrian territory,
2nd attacking Syrian forces in multiple fronts and
3rd deliberately shielding themselves in the nearby Russian aircraft informing Russia
just 1 min about their illegal engagement, causing to be hit by Syrian S-200
Putin's response seemed timid/weak and was at odds with strong statements from his
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu who put the blame directly on Israhell condemning and more
recent statements from Russia's Foreign Ministry.
Putin backed off on explicitly blaming Israel, saying it was chain of reaction that
caused the situation etc instead of pining it to that parasite
Yes, i observed the tondown by Putin, maybe we don't know the big boys like Putin knew
what is at stake than 15 Russian service men,RIP
It seems to me Putin/Russia is in the game for greater good than such provocation by the
middle finger and are paying dearly.
Russia didn't stick her nake for nothing as i said above,geopolitics and long term
national interest etc
The attack by Israhell came just after the "Idlib liberation deconfliction zone" deal
reached with Russia/Putin & Turkey/Erdogan after many hours of talk
That was something, not seen/wanted by the enemy of Syria.
So it was expected, provokation?
Maybe Putin's answer/response not verbally, it would gonna come practically, by ratcheting
up the defensive shield of Russian position and eventually upgrading Syrian air defense, as
both are now targeted if they pursue liberating Idlib from the filthy jihadist infestations,
including Iran.
The USA/UK warned Russia/Syria/Iran if they dare touch their 'rebel boys' then we will
respond UNSC dramatic talk on which what i found it interesting was that
the Syrian ambassador to UN,Dr.Bashar Jaafari exposed their hypocrisy asking the absurdity
that if they will let say 15,000 'rebels' aka terrorist in manchester city doing terrorism
and they will let Russia wanted to do same.
So i see toning down of Vlad is good in avoiding another provocation by Israhell/USA
One can see, Israhell blamed Syria right, then if Syria increased her ability of defense
then that will be seen as danger/aggression by Israhell
that is the statu quo there, criminals
OverTheHedge , 20 hours ago
There is another interpretation, over at MoonOfAlabama, which seems to be more sensible
than the doom-laden war-mongering rhetoric in this article.
1. Israel and Russia have a deconfliction agreement, so Russia would have notified Israel
about its IL-20 flight plans.
2. Israel would have agreed not to have fighter aircraft in that area, as part of the
agreement.
3. Israeli fighter planes used the IL-20 to mask their run in, which is a breach of the
agreement, and just rude, frankly. Israel appears to believe that agreements don't apply.
4. The Syrian air defence saw the Israeli planes, targeted and locked on. Panic in the
cockpit.
5. The Israeli pilot(s) used the bulk of the IL-20 to mask their radar reflection, and the
S-200 missile, being old and dim, went for the biggest radar cross-section. In other words,
the Israeli pilot saved his life by sacrificing the russian plane. Note that the missile
itself doesn't do IFF, and can't be recalled or retargeted once it is in the air. It has a
brain that an Atari 200 would be embarrassed by.
Whether this was in the plan, or just a brown trouser moment, is another question. If
there happened to be a civilian airliner in the vacinity, would the Israeli pilot have done
the same?
So, Israel is at fault for ignoring the agreement with Russia, and attacking despite
russian presence in a restricted area. It all went wrong. Lots of Israeli damage control with
Russia - offers to send the Israeli air force commander to Moscow to grovel in person, etc.
You can conspiracy theory as much as you like, and the French missile is not included in the
above, but I like ****-up over conspiracy, and idiot commanders not considering the
consequences more likely than vast overarching 200 move secret plans to rule the universe by
Thursday.
NB - the above is not my work, just in case you thought I was clever (unlikely, I
know).
rita , 21 hours ago
Putin as usual is brilliant, unlike the others who are continually trigger happy trying
desperately to inflate the situation in Syria!
RG_Canuck , 21 hours ago
Agreed, but I would like to see Putin grab that little frog by the te$ticle$ until he gets
on the ground and begs for mercy.
Posa , 22 hours ago
I totally agree with this interpretation. The tide is running with Russia-friendly
right-wing European parties who eventually will depose the Macron- Merkel axis, thanks to the
Social Dems accepting a flood of refugees from Bush-Clinton-Obama Regime Change War Crimes.
The writing is on the wall and Putin does not want to disrupt the inevitable flow of events
by being suckered into firing the first shots.
Loss of personnel and aircraft is accepted as war-time casualties... BUT I also agree that
retaliation will be more subtle, coming in the form of upgrades to defense of Syrian air
space defense. Of course, if Putin really wants to stick it to France- Israel he can also
complete the deal with Iran to sell the S series upgrades to Iran.
BrownCoat , 22 hours ago
Some of the interpretation is accurate. Some is Russian spin. The part I liked best
was:
"whether we're talking Fort Sumter, Pearl Harbor or the Gulf of Tonkin."
Darn right accurate! I would have added WMD's in Iraq to the list.
indus creed , 12 hours ago
According to Joel Skousen, Russia and China are not yet militarily ready to take on West.
Then again, Skousen used to be a CIA asset. Whom to believe these days?
Joiningupthedots , 23 hours ago
It changes nothing.
Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah won the war.
The West is desperately trying to turn Syria into another Libya and is desperately
failing.
ZeroLounger , 23 hours ago
A video on one of the links describes large quantities of captagon were seized, along with
motorcycles and weapons, near Palmyra.
So a war fueled by meth, basically.
thisandthat , 11 hours ago
Always was, at least since ww2
Is-Be , 23 hours ago
Because lying us into war is how we maintain the illusion of fighting wars of conquest
under the rubric of Christian Just War Theory which supports our national spirit of
manifest destiny
I'm getting the distinct impression that monotheism is a very bad idea.
A curse upon Charlemagne the Butcher and Oathbreaker!
Captain Nemo de Erehwon , 1 day ago
The fog of war and geopolitics makes initial responses to the attack on Russian and Syrian
forces recently difficult to assess.
That would have been excellent one-line article. But no. We have to expand on it.
Yellow_Snow , 12 hours ago
Just heard that Russia is indeed setting up a 'No Fly Zone' and will be doing Naval
training/testing in zones around Syria... between 0 and 19000 altitude
IsaHell has attacked Syria by air 200 times while the world has stood by...
S-400 needs to get deployed - now is the time - what's the point of having these SAM's and
never using them...
Needs to stop
DEMIZEN , 1 day ago
the Russian heads will stay cool. militarily, it is too early to move in and go full
****** with air defences the Jews are too close and will study their gear and structure.
Russian voter is beginning to rise eyebrows i assume, and Putins reputation is taking a
hit. i bet there will some tough Putin videos following this mess to restore his image in
public. Russian public wants Jewish blood, but i cant see a good immediate response.Revenge
is best served cold.
this mess will be followed up with more gear and more training for SAA, you cant blame
Syrian Army for any of this, they sacrifice two dozens of soldiers on a good day. most of
Syria SAM crews were executed in the first months of the war.
ships will keep coming. SAA will keep growing, Russians will likely focus on Ukraine and
EU diplomacy now. Assad and Kurds need to sit down and look at the option. Opposition in
idlib will disarm or die.Guerillas w/o insignia will keep hitting SDF. US will leave AL Tanf.
Its going to be a slow winter.
BrownCoat , 22 hours ago
Putin's reputation is not taking a hit!
What did Israel achieve in this attack? No one is reporting. Maybe Israel wanted to hit
Iranian militia units that were concentrating for the attack on Idlib before the units were
redeployed. We don't know.
Israel did not claim any success, just an attack without the loss of any F-16s.
In the eyes of Russians, Putin stood up to the "evil empire" once again. The cost was 15
soldiers. Russian's mothers are very vocal about sons coming home in body bags. That causes
social unrest. Support for Putin does not waver however. The deaths are the price Russia pays
to protect the mother land.
The author is correct that Putin's restraint shows skill and courage. Putin's weakness was
assigning blame for the 15 soldiers. Assigning blame was probably the work of some
sycophantic underlings.
turkey george palmer , 15 hours ago
Ok, what of the assets mixed in with the idlib bunch. The FUKUS has pretty valuable people
in that group and maybe some information the west dos not want made available to Russia. I
think Putin can get some of those people and use them.
There's some other things the US has over there that they don't want anyone to be able to
show on TV
africoman , 18 hours ago
With the downing of the IL-20 ELINT aircraft which killed 15 Russian servicemen, by the
aggressions of Israhell
1st violating sovereign Syrian territory,
2nd attacking Syrian forces in multiple fronts and
3rd deliberately shielding themselves in the nearby Russian aircraft informing Russia
just 1 min about their illegal engagement, causing to be hit by Syrian S-200
Putin's response seemed timid/weak and was at odds with strong statements from his
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu who put the blame directly on Israhell condemning and more
recent statements from Russia's Foreign Ministry.
Putin backed off on explicitly blaming Israel, saying it was chain of reaction that
caused the situation etc instead of pining it to that parasite
Yes, i observed the tondown by Putin, maybe we don't know the big boys like Putin knew
what is at stake than 15 Russian service men,RIP
It seems to me Putin/Russia is in the game for greater good than such provocation by the
middle finger and are paying dearly.
Russia didn't stick her nake for nothing as i said above,geopolitics and long term
national interest etc
The attack by Israhell came just after the "Idlib liberation deconfliction zone" deal
reached with Russia/Putin & Turkey/Erdogan after many hours of talk
That was something, not seen/wanted by the enemy of Syria.
So it was expected, provokation?
Maybe Putin's answer/response not verbally, it would gonna come practically, by ratcheting
up the defensive shield of Russian position and eventually upgrading Syrian air defense, as
both are now targeted if they pursue liberating Idlib from the filthy jihadist infestations,
including Iran.
The USA/UK warned Russia/Syria/Iran if they dare touch their 'rebel boyes' then we will
respond UNSC dramatic talk on which what i found it interesting was that
the Syrian ambassador to UN,Dr.Bashar Jaafari exposed their hypocrisy asking the absurdity
that if they will let say 15,000 'rebels' aka terrorist in manchester city doing terrorism
and they will let Russia wanted to do same.
So i see toning down of Vlad is good in avoiding another provocation by Israhell/USA
One can see, Israhell blamed Syria right, then if Syria increased her ability of defense
then that will be seen as danger/aggression by Israhell
that is the statu quo there, criminals
pluto the dog , 19 hours ago
To paraphrase Jean-Marie le Pen- Putin has described the Jewish takeover of Russia in 1917
and the slaughter of 62
million Christian Slavs that followed as "an incident of history" - and best
forgotten.
Putin is so deep in bed with Jewish oligarchs - and Bibi - it aint funny. LOL
Pleas note - the figure of 62 million dead is the most accurate yet. Was deduced by
researchers who had access to Kremlin archives for short period of time after the Soviet
Union imploded. So round that down to approx. 60 million and you will be safely in the ball
park.
Mustahattu , 20 hours ago
FUKUS alliance? More like FUCKUS alliance.
OverTheHedge , 20 hours ago
There is another interpretation, over at MoonOfAlabama, which seems to be more sensible
than the doom-laden war-mongering rhetoric in this article.
1. Israel and Russia have a deconfliction agreement, so Russia would have notified Israel
about its IL-20 flight plans.
2. Israel would have agreed not to have fighter aircraft in that area, as part of the
agreement.
3. Israeli fighter planes used the IL-20 to mask their run in, which is a breach of the
agreement, and just rude, frankly. Israel appears to believe that agreements don't apply.
4. The Syrian air defence saw the Israeli planes, targeted and locked on. Panic in the
cockpit.
5. The Israeli pilot(s) used the bulk of the IL-20 to mask their radar reflection, and the
S-200 missile, being old and dim, went for the biggest radar cross-section. In other words,
the Israeli pilot saved his life by sacrificing the russian plane. Note that the missile
itself doesn't do IFF, and can't be recalled or retargeted once it is in the air. It has a
brain that an Atari 200 would be embarrassed by.
Whether this was in the plan, or just a brown trouser moment, is another question. If
there happened to be a civilian airliner in the vacinity, would the Israeli pilot have done
the same?
So, Israel is at fault for ignoring the agreement with Russia, and attacking despite
russian presence in a restricted area. It all went wrong. Lots of Israeli damage control with
Russia - offers to send the Israeli air force commander to Moscow to grovel in person, etc.
You can conspiracy theory as much as you like, and the French missile is not included in the
above, but I like ****-up over conspiracy, and idiot commanders not considering the
consequences more likely than vast overarching 200 move secret plans to rule the universe by
Thursday.
NB - the above is not my work, just in case you thought I was clever (unlikely, I
know).
not-me---it-was-the-dog , 20 hours ago
" If there happened to be a civilian airliner in the vacinity, would the Israeli pilot
have done the same? "
only civilian airliners over syria......as far as i can tell, are from iran. so, answer
would be yes.
Southerly Buster , 18 hours ago
Have you not just described the 'official' story, a " chain of tragic
circumstances."
Nothing 'alternative' or 'clever' with the MoA's interpretation.
not-me---it-was-the-dog , 21 hours ago
no-fly zone over western syria? no.
no-fly zone over lebanon.
.........you read it here first.
rita , 21 hours ago
Putin as usual is brilliant, unlike the others who are continually trigger happy trying
desperately to inflate the situation in Syria!
RG_Canuck , 21 hours ago
Agreed, but I would like to see Putin grab that little frog by the te$ticle$ until he gets
on the ground and begs for mercy.
Posa , 22 hours ago
I totally agree with this interpretation. The tide is running with Russia-friendly
right-wing European parties who eventually will depose the Macron- Merkel axis, thanks to the
Social Dems accepting a flood of refugees from Bush-Clinton-Obama Regime Change War Crimes.
The writing is on the wall and Putin does not want to disrupt the inevitable flow of events
by being suckered into firing the first shots.
Loss of personnel and aircraft is accepted as war-time casualties... BUT I also agree that
retaliation will be more subtle, coming in the form of upgrades to defense of Syrian air
space defense. Of course, if Putin really wants to stick it to France- Israel he can also
complete the deal with Iran to sell the S series upgrades to Iran.
BrownCoat , 22 hours ago
Some of the interpretation is accurate. Some is Russian spin. The part I liked best
was:
"whether we're talking Fort Sumter, Pearl Harbor or the Gulf of Tonkin."
Darn right accurate! I would have added WMD's in Iraq to the list.
indus creed , 12 hours ago
According to Joel Skousen, Russia and China are not yet militarily ready to take on West.
Then again, Skousen used to be a CIA asset. Whom to believe these days?
Joiningupthedots , 23 hours ago
It changes nothing.
Russia, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah won the war.
The West is desperately trying to turn Syria into another Libya and is desperately
failing.
ZeroLounger , 23 hours ago
A video on one of the links describes large quantities of captagon were seized, along with
motorcycles and weapons, near Palmyra.
So a war fueled by meth, basically.
thisandthat , 11 hours ago
Always was, at least since ww2
Is-Be , 23 hours ago
Because lying us into war is how we maintain the illusion of fighting wars of conquest
under the rubric of Christian Just War Theory which supports our national spirit of
manifest destiny
I'm getting the distinct impression that monotheism is a very bad idea.
A curse upon Charlemagne the Butcher and Oathbreaker!
Baron Samedi , 23 hours ago
Had my champagne and a bottle of potassium iodide in my pocket ...
Like China, Putin is thinking the long game... not a quick score before the next
commercial timeout... and he's a chess player, so thinking ahead to the next set of moves is
the norm.... when this is lost, so is life.. think of Caesar as an example of those that
don't know when to say when... when to stop and smell the roses... when to consolidate
operations before the next set are begun.
What will the West do when their plans do go as planned? Sit around in the Med Sea for how
long? The Kurds will get played as the fools they are, same as always... this is the basic
script of all of our lives here in 'Purgatory'.. a school in self conscious awareness.. and
this is how we learn.... how many times does a lesson need to repeat before we learn? THink
of the example of Neo in that film 'The Matrix'.... "You've been done that street before
Neo..."
15 lives lost.... but no excuse yet given to start WW3 and lose many, many more... the
idiot puppets in the Western capitals get frustrated and lose their sanity.. as their OWO
puppet show is steered over the cliff by their own puppet masters in the SG... 'out with the
OWO, in with the NWO'... the best puppets are those that never even think they could be
one.... and so it goes.
pluto the dog , 23 hours ago
Putins in bed with Bibi just like Trump is. And Putins daughter is married to a *******
****. Does that sound familiar?
Yous are gonna be waitin a long time for WW3 to start
Blankone , 22 hours ago
What? Is Putin's daughter really married to a ***.
Holy ---, Just like all of Trump's kids who have married.
Damn
pluto the dog , 20 hours ago
Putins daughter now divorced from his buddy Nikolai Shamalovs son Kirill
no one in Russia is allowed to talk about this stuff
below link takes you to photo of Nikolai Shamalov. Please examine photo - looks very
ashkenazi to me LOL
The links of the stormfront article lay things out well.
I have the bad feeling again. I knew Putin's background was Russian mafia/corruption in
taking over from Yeltsin and that Putin was catering to the jews, but this was a
surprise.
Damn
Jung , 20 hours ago
She is married to a Dutchman and many were angry with them about MH17, so they left the
Netherlands. Don't worry about what he is, Putin knows his Grand Chessboard and has to avoid
problems with his fifth column in Russia (a group of Jewish people with a lot of clout.
One of these is not like the others.. , 23 hours ago
12$ a month!
Who do you think I am, Rothschild??
(I looked at the patreon link).
Is-Be , 23 hours ago
Here's a novel idea, France.
How about protecting France? It is, after all, called a Defence Force.
Or do tired eyes deceive me?
RG_Canuck , 21 hours ago
Defence Farce, more like it.
ZeroLounger , 23 hours ago
It appears that Armageddon is underway before our very eyes.
Buy stawks.
Is-Be , 23 hours ago
You have Armageddon, we have Ragnarok.
The difference is, we don't lust after Ragnarok.
Odin fears Ragnarok, for his doom is fortold.
Only Ask and Embla survive Ragnarok.
eyesofpelosi , 20 hours ago
Yes, the three (***/christian/islam) "*** cults" really WANT the end for all things.
Sickening, childish, and...evil. I'm a follower of Hela for the most part, yet I do not "rush
what is inevitable" either, lol.
terrific , 23 hours ago
The FUKUS alliance. Who thought that one up? It's hilarious.
FreeEarCandy , 23 hours ago
A false flag attack on any Christian historical site within Israel is all Israel needs to
do to drag the west into starting WW3. Historically, we know Israel has special place in
their heart for Christians.
besnook , 1 day ago
putin will respond in a way to get the most roi. he played this masterfully. concede on
issues when you have a lot to gain and nothing to lose.
tel aviv has a red dot on it's forehead now.
Captain Nemo de Erehwon , 1 day ago
The fog of war and geopolitics makes initial responses to the attack on Russian and Syrian
forces recently difficult to assess.
That would have been excellent one-line article. But no. We have to expand on it.
Yellow_Snow , 1 day ago
Russia should use Syria as a testing ground for the S-400 and the new S-500 systems... A
No fly Zone and 'hot' testing site
BrownCoat , 22 hours ago
It would be nice for the West, but...
1. Creating a No Fly Zone would force Russia to respond to any infraction. That reduces
Putin's options and diverts effort from Russia's objectives in Syria.
2. Installing S-400 or S-500 or S-999 would only show Israel and the US the capabilities
of these advanced weapon systems. According to the author, the S-300 is sufficient to keep
Israeli planes in check.
Yellow_Snow , 12 hours ago
Just heard that Russia is indeed setting up a 'No Fly Zone' and will be doing Naval
training/testing in zones around Syria... between 0 and 19000 altitude
IsaHell has attacked Syria by air 200 times while the world has stood by...
S-400 needs to get deployed - now is the time - what's the point of having these SAM's and
never using them...
Needs to stop
caconhma , 1 day ago
Prostitutin is a CIA asset and a total POS.
Shemp 4 Victory , 23 hours ago
Yeah, you're the adequacy, of course.
Your reactions are worthy of Pavlov's dog. You, I suppose, were trained with the same
methods.
Victor999 , 21 hours ago
Throw him a treat.
Anunnaki , 1 day ago
Putin is a Ziomist
Brazen Heist II , 1 day ago
Rooting for the collapse of FUKUS and Pissraeli imperialism.
But evil takes time to weaken because evil still has much more power than it deserves.
Putin is playing the long game, he knows these devils don't value anything they preach,
and they are sore losers about Syria, and he is neutering their scumbag behaviour, which may
seem like acquiesence to some, but it is merely realpolitik because he knows the FUKUS +
Pissrael can overpower Russia if they are united, esp when Russia is seen to strike back with
force directly.
They were united in Syria until their ragtag army of headchoppers fell apart, thanks to
Russian and Iranian realpolitik. So Russia, like China and Iran, is biding its time and
deflecting some big hits, taking a few blows, but they are in it for the victory in the long
run which means weakening the FUKUS + Pissraeli imperialist alliance through attrition and
clever maneuvering.
ThanksChump , 1 day ago
This analysis is compelling. It would be nice to have corroborating evidence that it was
the French vessel that shot down the IL-20, but even without that evidence, this story
satisfies the Occam's Razor test. This was a major gamble against a better player.
So, is Assad going to get new S-300 or new S-400 systems? The Iranians might feel slighted
if Assad gets S-400s.
DEMIZEN , 1 day ago
the Russian heads will stay cool. militarily, it is too early to move in and go full
****** with air defences the Jews are too close and will study their gear and structure.
Russian voter is beginning to rise eyebrows i assume, and Putins reputation is taking a
hit. i bet there will some tough Putin videos following this mess to restore his image in
public. Russian public wants Jewish blood, but i cant see a good immediate response.Revenge
is best served cold.
this mess will be followed up with more gear and more training for SAA, you cant blame
Syrian Army for any of this, they sacrifice two dozens of soldiers on a good day. most of
Syria SAM crews were executed in the first months of the war.
ships will keep coming. SAA will keep growing, Russians will likely focus on Ukraine and
EU diplomacy now. Assad and Kurds need to sit down and look at the option. Opposition in
idlib will disarm or die.Guerillas w/o insignia will keep hitting SDF. US will leave AL Tanf.
Its going to be a slow winter.
nowhereman , 1 day ago
OOOH Nastradamus
DEMIZEN , 1 day ago
i actually knew your were going to comment.
BrownCoat , 22 hours ago
Putin's reputation is not taking a hit!
What did Israel achieve in this attack? No one is reporting. Maybe Israel wanted to hit
Iranian militia units that were concentrating for the attack on Idlib before the units were
redeployed. We don't know.
Israel did not claim any success, just an attack without the loss of any F-16s.
In the eyes of Russians, Putin stood up to the "evil empire" once again. The cost was 15
soldiers. Russian's mothers are very vocal about sons coming home in body bags. That causes
social unrest. Support for Putin does not waver however. The deaths are the price Russia pays
to protect the mother land.
The author is correct that Putin's restraint shows skill and courage. Putin's weakness was
assigning blame for the 15 soldiers. Assigning blame was probably the work of some
sycophantic underlings.
sevensixtwo , 1 day ago
Who's going to say, "The Israelis attacked behind the Russian plane because they knew it
would mess up the radar on the S-200?"
BrownCoat , 22 hours ago
We don't know what caused the IL-20 destruction. Was it a French rocket? Was it a Syrian
or Russian working the missile defense system? My hunch is "friendly fire," but I wasn't
there.
Hindsight, the pilot should have disobeyed his flight plan and left the theater when the
SHTF. The plane could have landed in Cyprus. The pilot would have gotten grief (and probably
a demotion), but he would have saved the plane and its crew.
Mister Ponzi , 15 hours ago
You're making the mistake to let your emotions dominate your analysis. First, Russia does
not owe Syria (or any other Arab country for that matter) anything. As The Saker some time
ago rightly pointed out: Where was the Arab support for Russia in Chechenya or Georgia? Which
Arab country does recognize the indepence of Abkhasia, South Ossetia or Transnistria? What
was their reaction to Western sanctions against Russia? And how do they support Russia in the
case of Donbass or Crimea? Russia is in Syria only for her own interest and will do the
things that help her most. This will support the Assad government only in those areas where
the interest is aligned. If it were in Russian interest (which it isn't) they wouldn't
hesitate to get rid of Assad. Second, of course they give their S400s to Turkey because
Turkey is the big prize out there strategically. Sure, Erdogan is a despicable politicians
whose actions evoke memories of the darkest periods of the Ottoman Empire. But Russian
foreign policy is not driven by the hysterical human rights howling the West usually displays
(but only against governments that are not pro-Western) but by Realpolitik. You may welcome
it or reject it you must always analyze Russian foreign policy through this lens. Would
Russia tear Turkey out of the NATO phalanx if they could? Of course! Turkey would be a
tremendous loss for NATO strategically. This explains Russia's attitude towards Erdogan
including the chatter that it was Putin who warned Erdogan of the coup that was underway.
Third, the claim that Russia is too passive has been discussed so extensively that anyone who
wanted to understand the arguments of both sides and to weigh the pros and cons could have
done so, therefore, I'm not going to repeat the discussion here. For those who do not support
warmongering or cry "*****" all the time you can find a more balanced analysis of the Russian
position here:
Obviously a well planned operation and huge assault. No one is talking of the missiles
fired on Homs, Tartus and Latakia.
"One minute notice" by Israel, is patently unfair.
And the innocent US who took no part, but had a few nuclear subs and half a dozen warships
loaded and ready . . waiting for high noon!
Putin needs to get serious, or this will repeat in short time.
FBaggins , 1 day ago
Putin in dealing with three sociopath governments of three sociapathetic nations (Isreal,
the UK and the US) whose people are unable to elect leaders independent of the the sociopath
unelected puppet masters. He is not going to take the death of 15 servicemen lightly and the
sociopaths know this, but he is also not going to start WWIII over the incident. Sociopaths
like Netanyahu who want to escalate conflict in the area for the growth of Israel are
unpredictable.
Putin's job is to drive out the terrorist and stabilize the nation which is exactly the
opposite of what Israel, the UK and the US set out to do, but those nations continue to
support and even pay the terrorist insurgents they initially sent into Syria. They are
sociopaths because they do not give a rap about all of the killing and destruction they have
directly caused with their destabilization and regime change efforts to serve their own
designs. The entire world is aware of their crimes and increasingly will turn away from any
reliance on these nations or on their money.
The Ram , 1 day ago
FUKUS - forgot the 'I'. Should be written - I FUK US The 'I' being the real leader of the
pack.
Posa , 22 hours ago
Wrong. Getting into a shooting war at precisely the time when the US poodles in the EU are
ripe to be deposed would be a huge strategic mistake WHICH THE Anglo-Americans ARE TRYING to
provoke... not taking the bait is a smart move... in contrast to the USSR in Afghanistan, for
example, which became their Vietnam.
justdues , 1 day ago
Here is the oh so predictable Blankbrain with his usual demands that Putin act like a
punch drunk street thug and lash out at every provocation . Putin is way smarter than you
CIA/Mossad boy and those of us that aint in a hurry to see our loved ones vaporised thank God
for that.
"... Russia has a clear mission in Syria: that is to re-establish control of Syria for the Assad government and prevent radical Islamic groups from taking over and using Syria as a home (and a launching pad for exporting their twisted views back into Russia). Once that happens, if they are smart, they will go home. Avoiding entanglements with countries like Turkey and Israel are part of that goal. To get themselves embroiled into the vipers nest (like the Americans have done) would be pure stupidity. ..."
"... So yes, Russia will likely do nothing about this, except perhaps change their own tactics to make it less likely to happen again. ..."
"... But this incident does do one very important thing: it exposes the complete and utter fraud and moral bankruptcy of the zionist controlled west and their corporate media who will not report this story and will decline to comment on why exactly Israel gets to bomb Syria at will. ..."
"... NoseytheDuke , says: September 19, 2018 at 7:12 am GMT ..."
"... I have to say that this comment reveals you to be the adult in the comments 'room' so far Greg. ..."
"... Kiza , says: September 19, 2018 at 4:39 pm GMT ..."
"... Here is an excellent summary in English from the Russian state cominiques: http://johnhelmer.org/?p=17934#more-17934 . ..."
"... The only totally wrong thing in this article is the discussion whether the IFF of the Russian S200 system should have prevented the shoot-down of a friendly plane (both made in the same country). Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) is a system which prevents the launching of a missile against your own plane in a complex air battle environment. Now the Jewish 5th column in Russia is muddying the water (they are good at this) saying that it is a Russian screw up being blamed on Israel and John Helmer appears to have picked this up as fact. ..."
"... But, the truth is that IFF works to prevent a launch against a friendly target. It also prevents the missile from hitting a friendly plane under the standard mode of operation of targeting radars called CW. But CW mode is also a major vulnerability of targeting radars, because it can be jammed or spoofed to protect a foe, most Western planes are equipped with good CW counter measures. This is why the S200 system has been designed for semi-automous operation of its missiles. In the last part of the missile's trajectory, the missile can hone in on a target in the absence of a CW signal illuminating its intended target. When the Israeli small fighter jets took cover "behind" a big IL20, the missile honed in on it because the missile's own radar and logic selected the largest target as the most lucrative. ..."
"... Therefore, there was never a Russian screw up of any kind in this. ..."
"... Please keep in mind that Israelis are the World's experts in Russian radar systems because many Jews were involved in their design and some have immigrated to Israel. A few years ago, Israel even hired a Cyprian older and export model of S300 to train its pilots against them. Knowing how much plannng goes into bombing missions, knowing that IL20 because it was EW was a constant cruising presence in the air, and that Israelis attacked targets right next to the biggest Russian airbase in Latakia (where there was potential for the Russian involvement), it is really hard to believe that this outcome was not deliberate. ..."
"... Ultimately, the Israelis are happy with Putin's statements and unhappy with Shoygu's. Please observe the photo of Putin with Nutty Yahoo in Helmer's article, Putin's face is so self-happy. Makes you wish someone would slam a rifle butt into the moron's mug. ..."
"... The final irony is the one several people mentioned online – if the Syrians were operating an S300VM, the most modern version of the targeting radar, quite resistant to CW counter measures, the IL20 shootdown almost certainly would not have happened. Furthermore, if the Russian S400 was permitted to engage Israeli planes, it would have been the four Israeli F16s bathing in the Mediterranean Sea and body parts of Israeli pilots being collected instead of the Russian. On both options, Shoygu said yes and Putin said no. So who is to blame? Perhaps Putin is the Jewish 5th column in Russia. ..."
"... In my next comment I intend to outline what I think the Russians should have been and should be doing, how to deal with the Coalition of the Lovers of Terrorism. ..."
"... Harold Smith , says: September 19, 2018 at 4:44 pm GMT ..."
"... "Basically, 4 Israeli aircraft were sent on a bombing mission against targets near the Russian facilities in Khmeimim and Tartus (which, by itself, is both stupid and irresponsible). " ..."
"... I see it differently: ..."
"... Basically, 4 Israeli aircraft were sent on a mission to (indirectly) bring down a Russian plane, under the pretense of bombing Syrian targets. The object being to exploit Putin's apparent weakness and use it to trash his political popularity (and perhaps damage the morale of the Russian military). ..."
Every time one of these incidents happens, a flood of "chicken-hawks" come out of the
woodwork demanding that Russia should "release the S700s" and "shoot everything down," etc.
These people are idiots and should be ignored. The Saker is coming dangerously close to
being one of these idiots himself.
Russia has a clear mission in Syria: that is to re-establish control of Syria for the
Assad government and prevent radical Islamic groups from taking over and using Syria as a
home (and a launching pad for exporting their twisted views back into Russia). Once that
happens, if they are smart, they will go home. Avoiding entanglements with countries like
Turkey and Israel are part of that goal. To get themselves embroiled into the vipers nest
(like the Americans have done) would be pure stupidity.
So yes, Russia will likely do nothing about this, except perhaps change their own
tactics to make it less likely to happen again.
But this incident does do one very important thing: it exposes the complete and utter
fraud and moral bankruptcy of the zionist controlled west and their corporate media who will
not report this story and will decline to comment on why exactly Israel gets to bomb Syria at
will.
The only totally wrong thing in this article is the discussion whether the IFF of the
Russian S200 system should have prevented the shoot-down of a friendly plane (both made in
the same country). Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) is a system which prevents the
launching of a missile against your own plane in a complex air battle environment. Now the
Jewish 5th column in Russia is muddying the water (they are good at this) saying that it is a
Russian screw up being blamed on Israel and John Helmer appears to have picked this up as
fact.
But, the truth is that IFF works to prevent a launch against a friendly target. It
also prevents the missile from hitting a friendly plane under the standard mode of operation
of targeting radars called CW. But CW mode is also a major vulnerability of targeting radars,
because it can be jammed or spoofed to protect a foe, most Western planes are equipped with
good CW counter measures. This is why the S200 system has been designed for semi-automous
operation of its missiles. In the last part of the missile's trajectory, the missile can hone
in on a target in the absence of a CW signal illuminating its intended target. When the
Israeli small fighter jets took cover "behind" a big IL20, the missile honed in on it because
the missile's own radar and logic selected the largest target as the most lucrative.
Therefore, there was never a Russian screw up of any kind in this.
Please keep in mind that Israelis are the World's experts in Russian radar systems
because many Jews were involved in their design and some have immigrated to Israel. A few
years ago, Israel even hired a Cyprian older and export model of S300 to train its pilots
against them. Knowing how much plannng goes into bombing missions, knowing that IL20 because
it was EW was a constant cruising presence in the air, and that Israelis attacked targets
right next to the biggest Russian airbase in Latakia (where there was potential for the
Russian involvement), it is really hard to believe that this outcome was not
deliberate.
Ultimately, the Israelis are happy with Putin's statements and unhappy with Shoygu's.
Please observe the photo of Putin with Nutty Yahoo in Helmer's article, Putin's face is so
self-happy. Makes you wish someone would slam a rifle butt into the moron's mug.
The final irony is the one several people mentioned online – if the Syrians were
operating an S300VM, the most modern version of the targeting radar, quite resistant to CW
counter measures, the IL20 shootdown almost certainly would not have happened. Furthermore,
if the Russian S400 was permitted to engage Israeli planes, it would have been the four
Israeli F16s bathing in the Mediterranean Sea and body parts of Israeli pilots being
collected instead of the Russian. On both options, Shoygu said yes and Putin said no. So who
is to blame? Perhaps Putin is the Jewish 5th column in Russia.
In my next comment I intend to outline what I think the Russians should have been and
should be doing, how to deal with the Coalition of the Lovers of Terrorism.
"Basically, 4 Israeli aircraft were sent on a bombing mission against targets near the
Russian facilities in Khmeimim and Tartus (which, by itself, is both stupid and
irresponsible). "
I see it differently:
Basically, 4 Israeli aircraft were sent on a mission to (indirectly) bring down a
Russian plane, under the pretense of bombing Syrian targets. The object being to exploit
Putin's apparent weakness and use it to trash his political popularity (and perhaps damage
the morale of the Russian military).
And I think Putin calling this calculated act of mass murder an "accident" was a serious
blunder which made the mission a smashing success.
The Israeli air force had warned the Russian forces in Syria only one minute before the
strike. A Russian IL-20 electronic warfare airplane (red line) was preparing to land at the
Russian airport near Latakia just as the Israeli attack (blue) happened
moonofalabama
Israeli claims that its plane had returned by the time Russian was hit
They also claimed they warned Russia
So in one minute the warned, tried to bomb and then safely returned to Israel
Joaquin Flores has the most interesting analysis I've seen to date. It's just far enough out
there to be true.
In a nutshell, he says it was the French (who pleaded innocence before anyone accused them),
in an attempt to destroy the prospect of good relations between the EU & Russia. That,
and to disrupt the deal made with Turkey regarding Idlib. The latter having made irrelevant
NATO's plans to go live in Syria.
Putin/Shoigu did an end run by blaming the Israelis for the scenario. That opens
possibilities, including a no-fly zone.
What is most important is that Russia avoided being lured into a PR and diplomatic
catastrophe with France, which is what Atlanticists hoped for and tried to execute.
Putin surely knows Israel did 9-11, specifically to get the US to fight wars for terrorist
Jews.
A superb response to this latest (((outrage))) would be for Putin to make a top priority
of exposing the war crimes of terrorist Jews. But he hasn't yet, so that possibility is
unlikely.
Sadly ironic that the greatest enemy of Russia and the US is none other than the Terrorist
Theocracy of Eretz Ysrael.
@Erebus Joaquin Flores has the most interesting analysis I've seen to date. It's just far
enough out there to be true.
In a nutshell, he says it was the French (who pleaded innocence before anyone accused them),
in an attempt to destroy the prospect of good relations between the EU & Russia. That,
and to disrupt the deal made with Turkey regarding Idlib. The latter having made irrelevant
NATO's plans to go live in Syria.
Putin/Shoigu did an end run by blaming the Israelis for the scenario. That opens
possibilities, including a no-fly zone.
What is most important is that Russia avoided being lured into a PR and diplomatic
catastrophe with France, which is what Atlanticists hoped for and tried to execute.
https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/09/full-analysis-russian-disinfo-campaign-blames-israel-for-il-20-plane-downing-yet-exonerates-france/
Flores has an interesting view, but I have a few questions:
He says the French "early denial" doesn't make sense because the French weren't accused of
anything at the time they denied involvement, but IIRC didn't the Russians mention early on
that they detected missile launches from the French ship? So maybe the French were responding
to what they took as an implicit accusation?
Also, if it was not a Syrian S-200 SAM that brought the IL-20 down, how does Flores
explain the conspiuous inability of the Syrian S-200 system to take down any of the Israeli
planes?
Finally, do the French have the guts to shoot down a Russian plane, murdering everyone on
board in cold blood in an unprovoked attack? Granted Putin's not trigger happy, but the
Russians have previously indicated that they would attack launch platforms if any of their
personnel or assets were threatened. In light of that I don't think I would want to be on a
ship whose mission is to test Russian resolve.
It reminds me of the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty
How so? Aside from the fact that Israel was involved in both incidents.
Ricostein is correct ..there is a major difference between Il-20 and the USS Liberty. This
time the jooies didn't strafe the lifeboats ..
I wonder if Putin is down playing this because he wants to get it over with so Russia can go
home. A hoped-for goal of this FUKUS(IZ?) stunt.may have been retaliation. Wouldn't put it
past them.
I earlier made this remark to FB Ali " One must ask why Putin is acting this way. He has
actually taken
Trump off the hook. If the offensive had gone in Trump would have been
under a lot of pressure to take military action when the WH drama played
out. The DMZ agreement prevents that, and now he takes this soft line
over this bit of Israeli cleverness that cost Shoigu 14 men for no good
reason, Curious. One might think he does not want to rock the boat
before the mid term."
One must remember that Pravda is now an 'opposition' newspaper.
This playing down of Putin's reaction to the shooting down of the IL-20 appears to be part
of a Western media 'op'. One gets no such impression from the Tass reports, eg,
http://tass.com/politics/10... .
I gave up on the Guardian's comment site myself, 10 years ago, as the censorship on there
made it pointless. Has something changed?
There was one prolific commenter there, MrPikeBishop, who was so popular, he was even
commissioned to write articles above the line. Then one day, bam, he is banned, and his entire
posting history gone. That did it for me; little emperors not fit to clean his boots, just
rubbed him out. I spat on the site that day and never went back. Proclaiming themselves the
bastion of free speech, when they actually the enemies of it.
Actually, I was caught out here in the UK, by the demise of the old five pound note, and
then the ten pound note, because I stopped reading and watching MSM years ago. It's worth it,
to get their irritating buzzing out of my head.
Back to the linked Guardian article; this is indeed interesting – these questions
asked by the journalist:
– Who really did shoot down this plane? Was it an accident or did France and/or Israel
attack?
– Are Russia publicly accepting a false narrative to avoid having to retaliate?
– Do they even understand how close we're coming to global war, whenever a NATO country
operates in Syria?
– How long can we rely on Russian common sense to avoid WWIII?
"... The fact that Israel attacked today in Latakia in a temper tantrum proves this was a good deal to make for Syria. If the militants don't cooperate, they get hammered anyway. Nothing to lose. A very smart move by Putin again as well as Erdogan. I am sure China is helping financially by helping Turkey out with USSA Israeli sanctions and to get out from under the IMF. ..."
"... The hairy-chested Americans here are calling Putin weak, but he can't afford to make any over-reaching mistakes, and all decent, responsible human beings are glad of that. Do you want to have WW3 just to show how much "balls" you've got?" ..."
"... "STRONG IS NOT WHO FIGHTS WARS, STRONG IS WHO AVOIDS WAR." ..."
"... Defence minister Sergei Shoigu's statement on the shootdown at Russian military website here. https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12196031@egNews ..."
"... Putin makes it quite clear the statement by the Russian military that Israel is responsible is Russia's official position. ..."
"... You are probably right. Hindsight is 50-50 and this hasn't fully played out. My point larger point is just that if Putin had been more distrustful of Erdogan, then maybe he would've done things differently. If Erdogan doesn't keep his part of the bargain that has just been struck and never relinquishes Idlib, then Putin will have lost his Turkish gamble. It's already looking pretty dicey. ..."
"... The downing of the Russian plane was premeditated. Most likely, the holo-biz 'survivors' used electronic rerouting, which the Russians should have done long time ago against the nest of the bloody Bolshevik progeny and supremacists madmen like Miliekovski (Bibi) and the former night-club bouncer Avi Lieberman. ..."
"... Russia is in a very difficult position. It has absolutely treacherous enemies quite apart from supposed allies on all sides. The U.S.A. is even trying to destroy Orthodox Christianity to further isolate Russia. I have no doubt that there has been some very intense diplomacy behind the scenes. Remember, vengeance is a dish served cold, the western attitude for immediate gratification, e.g. ..."
"... So what are the chances that s-200 "...missile was aimed at the F-16 its seeker likely mistook the larger radar reflection of IL-20 for the intended target." as is stated in an article?Of course a possibilities are endless, in theoretical domain. But it would require sloppy operators ..."
"... At the same time, Israel is constantly working to prevent our enemies from arming themselves with advanced weaponry. Our red lines are as sharp as ever and our determination to enforce them is stronger than ever. ..."
"... This week we will mark, in synagogues and cemeteries, Yom Kippur, the holiest day of our people, and the day on which, 45 years ago, we absorbed a bloody attack that cost us thousands of victims. ..."
"... " thought Syria's goal was to redeem its territory." From whom? Syrians? With 5 million refugees outside of Syria? From a nation of 22 million. With 3 million refugees in Turkey alone. ..."
"... The reaction guided by the initial emotional state is almost always the incorrect one. This case is no different. ..."
"... That does not mean Russia must sit back and take it. It means its responses must be carefully thought out and deliberate. Not an emotional knee jerk. ..."
"... Russia looks weak because they are in a weak position. It appears the Anglo American Zionists want to demolish Syria completely. They have been goading Russia into firing back and and starting the war with NATO. The Russians have not because they know it will be all out demolition time. ..."
"... From Jose Garcia comment above: "War is for warmongers who never experience the hell they so desire." ..."
"... Serious followers of MoA understand that we are at a watershed time and reactive measures are never effective when downing a delusional foe in the throes of death. ..."
"... For all the Putin bashing going on, he appears to be the one riding the tiger. Taking on the entirety of the NATO-zionist alliance without support from China at the very least would undoubtedly be apocalyptic. Let the rooks and bishops set the trap. ..."
"... The cards that the MOD drew, meanwhile, call Israel's act "hostile" and point out that the Israeli pilots could not have missed seeing the Russian plane, and thus deliberately hid behind it. Although b linked to the Sputnik report of this, it may help for a visceral understanding of Russia's take to watch Konashenkov deliver his statement. A two minute clip from Vesti News: ..."
"... According to the Times of Isreal there are 250,000 Jews living in Moscow. With a population over 11 million that's about 2.5%. Elsewhere the numbers are lower. About 1/3 of the Jewish population in Moscow have Israeli citizenship (83000). Of the 200 richest people in Russia, 25% are Jewish according to some reports. So their power is perhaps greater than their numbers as is seen elsewhere . This is neither good or bad of course unless the power is used to support Israel over their country of residence/citizenship ..."
"... As for all the idiotic (IQ < 25) losers trolling here, as Clausewitz said, "war is the mere continuation of politics with other means" (not "by other means"), so war is all about politics. As Iraq and Afghanistan have shown recently, you can have the allegedly "most powerful military" in the world but if you don't understand the politics, you will lose, lose and keep on fucking losing. FUKUS have wanted regime change in Damascus for the last several years but it hasn't happened so FUKUS are the fucking losers so far and Putin will now ensure they go on losing. ..."
"... Putin is the master of cool understatement, and his comment about what a complex chain of accidents were required to lead to this tragedy I took to be dripping with venom. Especially since the Israelis know perfectly well this was intentional, and they know Putin knows. I would say they are extremely nervous right now. ..."
"... A major provocation was inevitable. The false flag chemical attack was disrupted with apparently magnificent intel. I heard a lot of scoffing when Russia presented evidence to the UNSC, but it must have been unusually damning and conclusive of direct Western collision with the terrorists. Did you notice there were none of the now customary Western leaks mocking the Russian presentation? Not a peep. Suddenly Hailey and the shills just changed their tune, that in fact a chemical attack wasn't necessary for them to act, that any attack at all upon terrorists in Idleb would be sufficient. Belatedly they started mentioning their overwhelming concern for the safety of the citizens, but then Russia and Turkey reached an understanding which would (at least in theory) address that. The neocons and zionists were apoplectic. Something had to be done! ..."
"... It is hardly debatable that this was a very carefully orchestrated and coordinated NATO+I operation. The West no doubt knew the Russian aircraft's patrol area and customary length of mission so this could be timed for when it was low on fuel and returning to base, its movements most predictable. ..."
I read an excellent post on SouthFront that I think is worth posting here:
John Brown • 2 hours ago
This deal with Erdogan is better than I thought, as the Russian army will enter Idlib in large numbers escorted by the Turkish
army without even having ot fight any battles at all.
This is why Israel downed the Russian military transport plane to try to wreck this deal which is huge victory for Syria.
The S-200 was fired at the F-16 earlier which drew the missile out towards the IL-20, then the F-16 kept the IL-20 in a
line-of-sight between it and the missile, probably till the missile was out of range of identifying friend or foe, and used
the heat signature to kill the nearest thing..
The deal also helps Russia and Syria by Erdogan is giving them a shield to free the rural areas of Latakia Idlib and Homs
which they would have to do first any way. The Oct 15 deadline gives the Russians plenty of time to bomb the crap out of the
militants. The buffer zone will also be territory Syria won't have to fight for as the Israeli terrorists will have to pull
back and Russia has more time to greatly strengthen Syrian air defenses.
The fact that Israel attacked today in Latakia in a temper tantrum proves this was a good deal to make for Syria. If
the militants don't cooperate, they get hammered anyway. Nothing to lose. A very smart move by Putin again as well as Erdogan.
I am sure China is helping financially by helping Turkey out with USSA Israeli sanctions and to get out from under the IMF.
"I don't believe this attack had anything to do with the Idlib agreement. Just another Israeli attack on Syria."
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 18, 2018 8:42:21 AM | 31
"Russia has its own S-400 systems defending Latakia, so it can defend itself and doesn't need Syria's S-200s.
They would have been watching the Israeli F-16s on radar, and then they get a phone call saying an attack is happening in one
minute. Russia must have said "OK", because they didn't blow the F-16s out of the sky. All they have to say to Israel is "Next
time it will NOT be OK." and Israel will have to stop it's invasions.
The hairy-chested Americans here are calling Putin weak, but he can't afford to make any over-reaching mistakes, and all
decent, responsible human beings are glad of that. Do you want to have WW3 just to show how much "balls" you've got?"
Palloy | Sep 18, 2018 10:09:01 AM | 54
"STRONG IS NOT WHO FIGHTS WARS, STRONG IS WHO AVOIDS WAR."
Posted by: venice12 | Sep 18, 2018 10:09:18 AM | 55
It seems that most agree with my assessment that Russian policy is primarily at fault as I wrote @81. There's really no avoiding
that fact, especially for Russians, which is likely to act like a stick stuck in the throat. The Zionists offer help with an "investigation"
of the event, which is pure BS as the event's already been investigated, the facts revealed, and the responsible party and its
criminal motive named. I'm sure numerous members of Syria's General Staff are privately--perhaps--saying "we told you so" regarding
Russia's non-engagement policy. Maybe even Assad too.
Need to see Russian language media and Duma member reactions as Putin will need to address them. I wonder if the Kremlin Security
Council discussed how they'd respond to such an event as another shootdown was very likely to occur.
On the question: Would having the S-300 system made any difference? Only if it had previously been used successfully to down
Zionist aircraft and thus become seen as a credible deterrent to such attacks. But I doubt in this situation if its targeting
system would have been able to differentiate between the larger and smaller targets.
This is perplexing. While Putin evidently whitewashes the Israeli act of war, he also dictates a firm message to Israel via MOD
Shoigu. Russia used to be more consistent and firm when it was part of the the socialist USSR. Today everything is about capitalist
profit and "win-win."
However, the U.S. population believes it is entitled to the world's resources by divine right, like Israel,
and has indeed viewed itself as the New Israel. Nevertheless, much of the blame also goes to Iran for exaggerating its influence
in Syria and Iraq and thus playing into Israeli propaganda.
Iran has also refused to defend its own assets in Syria and has deferred to Russia and/or Syria for protection.
Hezbollah likes to boast about its victories but is ineffectual (or more probably unwilling to retaliate) against Israeli use
of Lebanese airspace to attack Syria.
Russia is infested with the Zionist lobby and a fifth column of Christian Zionists who work with George Soros on the left to
pass superstitious anti-gay laws and then attack Russia for foreign-financed "human rights violations," leading to CIA-backed
extremism on the left (Pussy Riot) and right (anti-immigrant white supremacy).
The FSB seems content to facilitate the destruction of its own country; one cannot blame institutional treason and/or spinelessness
on one man (Putin). The bottom line is that "World War III or bust" has always been the NATO/Israel endgame and is a natural outgrowth
of deep-seated, centuries-long tendencies in Western civilisation. Citizens of the West are guilty for passively voicing useless
resistance against a ruthless oligarchy that only respects force.
If Westerners and their victims are unwilling to take up arms against the oligarchy (not that I would advocate that), then
they shouldn't complain about the ceaseless wars and corruptions. They should just accept their status as slaves unto death without
the faux protesting.
Thread seems to be full of troll and couch potatoes spewing crap. Putin makes it quite clear the statement by the Russian
military that Israel is responsible is Russia's official position.
There also seems to be a concerted propaganda effort by the MSM to claim that Russia supports Israel's attacks on alleged Iranian
infrastructure in Syria, including Lebanese Hezbollah. The New York Times is asserting that Russian restraint has facilitated
hundreds of Israeli airstrikes on Syria over the past year, and goes on to aver that Israel and Russia closely coordinate activities
to limit Iranian influence in Syria.
The MSM clearly hope to drive a wedge between Russia and its regional partners, even though equal or greater blame should go
to Iran for its own hesitancy to confront Israel. Hezbollah could have easily used its ever-growing post-2006 expertise to target
Israeli electronic and air assets over Lebanon but has not done so, though Israel always utilises Lebanese (or Jordanian) airspace
to attack Syria. Everyone likes to blame Putin but lets Iran, Syria, and the rest of the Russian military/diplomatic establishment
off the proverbial hook.
Besides, Hezbollah has not done itself any favours by promoting anti-Semitic "Jews-control-the-world" canards on its al-Manar
TV channel, which only discredits the otherwise worthy cause of anti-Zionism and only plays into hard-right Zionist hands.
Bashar al-Assad, for his part, made numerous flawed efforts to appease Israel and the West in the years prior to the 2011 intervention.
He privatised certain sectors of the economy; allowed Syria's arch-enemy, the pro-Zionist Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas), to set
up offices; and in general tried to compensate for his inferiority and lack of experience.
When his father Hafez died in 2000, even the MSM paid grudging respect, something they have not done to Bashar. Bashar, like
Gaddafi, Khrushchev, and other revisionists, was always trying to abandon the pan-Arab, anti-Zionist, socialist agenda of his
father and seek "peaceful coexistence" with the West.
@P36 jackrabbit... i have a few problems with the quote from you below.. first off, it suggests that the path syria-russia-iran
has taken to regain syria could have been done differently and more effectively.. that is a 64,000 question that ignores a number
of events that could or might have happened along the way to change everything at the place syria is now.. so, i disagree with
you on this and think banding all the 'moderate headchoppers' and families in idlib was a smart move and one that is still being
worked out.. pat lang was wrong on this from day one and doen't look at more right at this point as i see it..
"Pat Lang said that R+6 should have moved to take Idlib after Aleppo. He has now been proven right."
Segy Shoigu - "The head of the Russian defense Ministry reported that it had informed the defense Minister of Israel Avigdor Lieberman
that Russia will not leave unanswered actions of the Israeli air force in Syria, which killed Russian soldiers."
Putin - "Our attitude towards this tragedy is set forth in a statement by our Defence Ministry, and has been fully coordinated
with me."
You are probably right. Hindsight is 50-50 and this hasn't fully played out. My point larger point is just that if Putin
had been more distrustful of Erdogan, then maybe he would've done things differently. If Erdogan doesn't keep his part of the
bargain that has just been struck and never relinquishes Idlib, then Putin will have lost his Turkish gamble. It's already looking
pretty dicey.
Some counter this view by saying that Putin is "playing the long game". I disagree. The Empire has awoken and is defending
its hegemonic vision. This is a 'race' (at times a game of chicken) that neither side can afford to lose.
The downing of the Russian plane was premeditated. Most likely, the holo-biz 'survivors' used electronic rerouting, which
the Russians should have done long time ago against the nest of the bloody Bolshevik progeny and supremacists madmen like Miliekovski
(Bibi) and the former night-club bouncer Avi Lieberman.
The Jewish Fifth Column in Russia should feel the heat. Their Israeli
relatives and best friends are guilty of the premeditated murder of Russians.
"Combat vessels from the Second Standing NATO Maritime Group (NATO Maritime Group 2) moved closer to Syria's borders on the
16th of September, according to monitoring data from Western naval forces. In retrospect, we can see this sudden buildup as related
to the French/US/Israeli strike on Lattakia and the downing of the Russian il-20 aircraft carrying 14 Russian soldiers
In particular, the eastern Mediterranean is now being patrolled by the Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Ville de Quebeс, by the Greek
navy ship Elli and by the Dutch Navy frigate HNLMS De Ruyter, the latter being the group's flagship.
In addition to the aforementioned vessels, three American destroyers (USS Carney, USS Ross and USS Winston S. Churchill) are
already in the region, as well as the USS 6th Fleet Admiral USS Mount Whitney.
The waters are also being patrolled by at least three Los Angeles-class US nuclear submarines. According to Western observers,
the armament of the current US naval group in the Mediterranean includes more than 200 Tomahawk cruise missiles."
The agreement on Idlib reminds me of the Minsk agreements, of 2015. When the Minsk agreement was signed, many people called Putin
a traitor and a weakling for abandoning the Lugansk and Donetsk republics. However looking back over the last 3 1/2 years we can
see the true sense of the Minsk agreement.
1. Legitimization of the republics.
2. Commitment of Ukraine to federalization, which Ukraine had no intention of carrying out.
3. Tying the hands of the West because of 'The Minsk Agreement'.
Since then the conflict has been frozen. And every day Ukraine gets weaker and its Western owners throw away more money and
credibility on a lost cause.
The Idlib agreement looks similar. What are likely results of this agreement?
1. Consolidating the exclusion of the U.S. from western Syria.
2. Positioning Turkey as the actor with responsibility to fight the U.S. coalition's Jihadis in Idlib. When combined with the
situation with the Kurds, it consolidate's Turkey's position as a Russian ally and American foe.
3. Opening up transportation routes linking Damascus with Aleppo.
4. Freezing the conflict while a diplomatic solution is achieved, without the participation of the U.S. coalition.
It looks like a good deal for Syria and Russia. No wonder Israel was so furious.
Regarding Putin's reaction to the Il-20 downing, it looks like vintage Putin to me. He will not make a show of it, but will
address the issue firmly, with action, not words, but on the terms and timing of his choice.
All of the commentators on this blog who denigrate Putin do not properly appreciate recent history.
@T and all the experts. Russia is in a very difficult position. It has absolutely treacherous enemies quite apart from supposed
allies on all sides. The U.S.A. is even trying to destroy Orthodox Christianity to further isolate Russia. I have no doubt that
there has been some very intense diplomacy behind the scenes. Remember, vengeance is a dish served cold, the western attitude
for immediate gratification, e.g.
Russia taking immediate and probably recklessly stupid retaliatory action won't serve either their or Syria's agendas, doesn't
mean that action won't be taken. Putin is only human, we all make mistakes, if the situations were reversed, the U.S.A. Wouldn't
even make it to 3rd world level.............
"SARH (semi-active radar homing seeker) missiles require tracking radar to acquire the target, and a more narrowly focused illuminator
radar to "light up" the target in order for the missile to lock on to the radar return reflected off target. The target must
remain illuminated for the entire duration of the missile's flight ."
So what are the chances that s-200 "...missile was aimed at the F-16 its seeker likely mistook the larger radar reflection
of IL-20 for the intended target." as is stated in an article?Of course a possibilities are endless, in theoretical domain. But
it would require sloppy operators (unlikely that would be a Syrians in this case) to mistook the airplane loaded with all
kind of electronics for an interceptor.
How can the Russians provide AD to Syria without incorporating automatic friend-or-foe recognition that allows only hostile aircraft
to be targeted?
Was the relevant transponder in the IL-25 not working for some reason? Was it a software glitch? Was the Syrian equipment so
old that it could not provide this safety measure without further modification? Or did the Syrians turn off this feature deliberately
because they did not understand how to use it?
The answers will probably never be publicly known but the Israelis have shot themselves in the foot here by violating their
de-confliction agreement with Russia.
His take on the blogosphere is spot on but also his theory that and american Israeli faction in Israel engineered the situation
to move deliberately put Israel on bad terms with Russia might have something.
Israel has never joined the US sanctions against Russia and Netanyahu told Trump to stand down in southwest Syria after Russia
had worked its diplomacy.
I believe there is also a large voting block of ethnic Russians in Israel that may be a little pissed off about the shootdown.
i doubt that the Syrians handle this given the type of aircraft involved. IL-25 is allegedly shot down just off the Syrian
coast where Russian have state of the art radars. In addition bunch of naval ships similarly equipped.
forgot to check for typos before posting my last comment.
kral 134 From what I read some time ago the S-200 warhead has a kill range of 150 meters and is armed with a proximity fuse.
If that is right, the missile would only need to pass with 150 meters of the Russian plane while tracking the Israeli planes or
missiles to take it out.
There is more to this than meets the eye. Putin not only has to look after his troops, but he has to play politics, too, and in
Russia there is a very strong 5th column of liberals and Jewish commentators who are now falling all over themselves trying to
explain away Israeli actions to the Russian public. From The Saker:
"I am watching the Russian media and I have to report that Zionist propagandists (Russian liberals and Jewish commentators)
look absolutely *terrible*: they are desperately trying to blame everybody (the Syrians, Hezbollah, and even the Russians) except
for Israel. This will not sit well with the Russian public."
Without the public firmly behind him, taking actions that could quickly escalate will not go down well in Russia. Let people
laugh and talk trash. I remember the shootdown of the Russian jet by Turkey, and everyone was screaming for Turkish blood. The
Sultan eventually came back with hat in hand. It's a very tricky situation for Putin regarding Israel. This will take time to
play out. The Russians will probably have the last laugh.
https://thesaker.is/russia-blames-israel-for-the-shooting-down-of-her-ew-aircraft/
Indeed. The brilliance of the Israeli strategy of provocation is that it will make the domestic political scene in Russia increasingly
difficult for Putin to navigate in Syria. The more often Russian troops are killed or injured, the more quickly one half of the
Russian populace demands action or withdrawal; the more they demand it, the harder it will be for Putin to maintain their support.
For Israel and others are betting that he will never actually retaliate. They are creating a situation which is designed to make
Russia's presence in Syria an impossible political situation for Putin himself.
Another interesting point to note. Russia, Iran and Turkey recently had a meeting on the situation in Syria. The agreed to get
rid of the rats in Idlib. Suddenly Putin turns around and makes a deal with ONLY Turkiye.
It's becoming clear that Turkey , Russia and (behind the scenes) Israel, are on the same side when it comes to Iran's presence
in Syria. Syrians themselves don't have a say in their own country anymore.
The Syrian army now needs permission from a foriegn power to liberate their own land. Turning the other cheek only invites
more slaps.
At this rate, Syria may well forget about Idlib. Turkey won't leave. The US won't leave either. Welcome to bulkinazation 101.
Israel broke the bond of trust. They will see in many ways and means that they bought the S-300 for Syria and eventually, a
NO FLY over Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Iraq and Turkey. The S-400s will be linked and all anyone in a military aircraft has to
do is call and ask for permission from Moscow/MOD/VVP. It's coming. Russia is in Syria to stay for 50+ years. And thus, it and
its neighbors will be under the Russian missile defenses, integrated as a whole network.
In this Levant neighborhood, all the leaders want peace. Only Israel wants war.
The ME is wider and includes the psychos and sociopaths of Israel and Saudi Arabia and UAE. They want proxy war and US Centcom
wars. But Russia has taken Turkey away and soon Iraq will be removed from US hegemony, also.
The Chinese are finishing an exercise as "ally" of Russia in Vostok 2018. They are seeing and feeling how Russia fights wars.
This may give them the confidence to militarily join anchoring the ME for OBOR Silk Road development. They have much at stake
in securing a peace. And just may join with a stout presence of the PLA. They should and now they might finally come.
The Chinese will be operating the port at Haifa, so it means they hold stakes in Syria and Iraq as well as Israel. In their
own commercial interests and in President Xi's dream of BRI they have to invest a military presence. The time is perfect.
They intend to invest billions in reconstructing Syria. They should build their own military infrastructure base in Syria.
Their work with Russia in Vostok 2018 will make their presence inside Syria feel very comfortable.
well you go and let israel attack 'iranian' targets inside Syria some 200 times in two years or so, and ya don't expect any of
your forces to ever get caught in the cross-fire?.....Well, russia, ya finally got caught.
"....But the ministry said it held Israel responsible because, at the time of the incident, Israeli jets were attacking Syrian
targets and had only given Moscow one minute's warning, putting the Russian aircraft in danger of being caught in cross-fire..."
"Putin showed weakness" is silly. He can't talk about secret accommodation for Israel - but he can end it .
<> <> <> <> <> <>
The 'accomodation' stemmed from Putin's view that Russia had no interest in getting involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. A
wise choice because drawing Russia into that fray could lead to WWIII. Who is directly responsible for the downing of the plane
is irrelevant. Israel clearly fucked with Russia by not giving them adequate warning.
Israel controls Russia as much as it does the USA. Putin is a philo-semite. The Chief Rabbi of Russia is known as Putins Rabbi
, he is from Brooklyn, a rabbi of the same orthodox sect as Kushner, Felix Sater and a couple of Putins biggest oligarch suporters
. Many of Russias top oligarchs also have Israeli passports. Putins already met Bibi 3 times this year and trade and tourism between
the 2 countries is booming with more than 60 flights from Israel to Moscow daily. A Russian academic is being tried for holocaust
denial for daring to question some of the numbers. The media in Russia is just as pro-Israel as in US. The powerful Israeli lobby
is global.
Bottom line, IMO there will be no revenge taken other than a token response to appease Russias military. Putting aside his pro
Israeli stance, Putin knows an attack on Israel is the same as an attack on the Israeli controlled US . Not going to risk that
for Syria, not for 14 soldiers. Thats just being smart. Weak, but smart.
So it appears to be true Bibi Netanahau send a
Yom Kippur warning to Israel's foes in
Syria with "accomplices" Russia, Turkey and Iran.
At the same time, Israel is constantly working to prevent our enemies from arming themselves with advanced weaponry. Our
red lines are as sharp as ever and our determination to enforce them is stronger than ever.
This week we will mark, in synagogues and cemeteries, Yom Kippur, the holiest day of our people, and the day on which,
45 years ago, we absorbed a bloody attack that cost us thousands of victims.
" thought Syria's goal was to redeem its territory." From whom? Syrians? With 5 million refugees outside of Syria?
From a nation of 22 million. With 3 million refugees in Turkey alone.
Zachary F Goldberg , Sep 18, 2018 5:06:53 PM |
link
If Israel did not attack Syria without any legal pretext, none of this would have happened. Why do the USA and its NATO allies
stand by and watch as Israel commits so many acts of naked aggression?
Because USA and NATO are wholly owned subsidiaries of Israel. Besides, the USA does not sit idly by - it actively supports
Israel.
Thanks to karlof1 for the 3 links, to PeterAU1 for the two links to Russian response to the mishap, also to Grieved for reminding
us how seriously Russia will be assessing a response, and b, of course, for bringing the matter before us in his always competent
posting.
Here is a translation of part of what Putin had to say:
"...First of all, I would like to express condolences to the families of the dead.
As for your comparison with the downing of our plane by a Turkish fighter, this was a different situation. The Turkish fighter
deliberately shot down our aircraft.
In this case, it is more a chain of tragic circumstances because an Israeli fighter did not down our aircraft. It goes without
saying that we must get to the bottom of this. Our attitude towards this tragedy is set forth in a statement by our Defence Ministry,
and has been fully coordinated with me.
As for reciprocal action, this will be primarily aimed at ensuring additional security for our military and our facilities
in the Syrian Arab Republic. These steps will be seen by everyone..."
Because of the phrasing Putin has carefully used, I would place considerable emphasis on the fact that only one minute warning
was given by the Israelis of this dangerous situation occurring in the region of a busy Syrian airport such as Latakia has to
be. Israel certainly knows that Russian planes are using that airfield. Why only a one minute warning? would be my question. And
from the answer to that would flow measures taken to avoid the occurrence which would detract considerably from Israel's freedom
to operate in that manner in that region in future. Whether that will be Russia's only response is at the moment a matter of speculation.
We shall have to wait and see.
Lets have some patience, and in the interim it wouldn't hurt to pray for peace. And also for the families of those airmen.
From whom? Have you missed that Idlib is occupied from the Syrian state?
U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura said there was a high concentration of foreign fighters in Idlib, including an estimated
10,000 fighters designated by the U.N. as terrorists, who he said belonged to the al-Nusra Front and al Qaeda.
I have no idea where that comment came from. Thanks for letting me know and for seeing it was not the sort of thing I would
write. I wrote a while ago that I had been hacked.
Yes, those of us who have been here a long time now are not suddenly going to dismiss Mr Putin for one remark. I think it's
his style to understate, to row back a bit from strong language, but that doesn't mean there won't be consequences for this action.
I looked at Saker's blog and he is very critical as he has been for some time now - hence the link with Paul Craig Roberts. Fort
Russ, which is run by Joaquin Flores took issue with Saker. I find Joaquin an interesting intellect. I thought his analysis of
Turkeys plans for Idlib quite brave in the sense of forecasting (please Google fort russ this is how Syria will seize Idlib).
I think Israel was furious its hopes for a confrontation of the Syrian alliance with Turkey in Idlib had been dashed by an
agreement the contents of which we are still not quite sure.
The Agreement to protect and save the terrorist from destruction between Erdogan and Putin, Putin's in-action after the attack
yesterday in Syria suggest the problems in Syria do not add up to a war between nation states. Clearly Putin is not defending
humanity or justice, instead it seems he is engaged in a conflict between Oligarchs, especially the Oligarchs entrenched in London.
USA, RUSSIA, France, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. If so, the outcome will determine which group of Oligarch owned corporations will
own the output of the masses and which will plunder the resources in Syria.
If Assad wins, the masses will be able to retain their right to self determination, at least in Syria. If the rest of the world
looses in Syria, everyone worldwide will be slave to the Oligarchs, no government will ever be allowed to be for the people, every
government will instead be a tool of the Oligarchs, if the Oligarchs loose in Syria, they will likely nuke the world. Clearly,
humanity has a problem. .
If the leadership of our nations are oligarch puppets, then why a war at all? This question suggest Putin-Erdogan agreement,
Putin's failure to act and Putin's failure to allow Syria to have S-400s to defend itself, imply that Assad and even Syria are
not really in the game, Syria is just the Stadium and Assad one of the players on the field, a player that can be fired at any
time.. . Seems Assad stands alone against the Oligarchs as did Qaddafi and before him Saddam, and before him... on and on and
on..
J. Flores @ FortRuss agrees with you in an article to be posted after the site he edits recovers from an attack:
Written within the context of the disinfo wars the author analyses more fully in the yet to be posted article:
Excerpted:
"Secondly, readers will take note of the inclusion of the French denial. This French denial is bizarre and entirely out of
place, since no one accused France.
. . .
The French 'early denial' when no accusation was made, means that the West had planned for France to be blamed, the French
authorities were prepared to carry out their script and deny the accusations that the Russians were 'obviously' going to make.
Then something happened, and Russia didn't make that accusation. But there were the French authorities, going forward with
the script, and in an incoherent way which really exposes what they were up to, and tells us all quite clearly what was planned,
and yet all the while Russia doesn't at all blame France. Ridiculous, brilliant, absurd.
. . .
The aim of the Atlanticists is to have France do it, have France be blamed, and to cause a massive public relations problem,
that Putin would have to respond to, by naming, blaming, the French, and seeking to hold them accountable. How will the French
and Russian publics, respectively, take this? Not well, and it doesn't work well for the Eurasia project either. Macron will eventually
be out, and it's politically near-impossible to hold the leader of a country, although temporary, responsible without blaming
a whole people for something. Once you throw in the work of French media spin-doctors, they will absolutely succeed in twisting
it not as a Macron problem but a problem that Russia has with blaming France and all the French by extension.
. . .
The IFF system, and the situation in Syria, is not at all like the situation in the Georgian war ten years ago, when at the
time there were some official Russian reports of there being difficulties separating Georgian from Russian aircraft. This is because
MiGs are identical to MiGs. IFF systems at the time are not the same as today, with integrated transponders which make auto-locking
impossible from the start. The Syrian Army at Lattakia does not, in reality, operate as a separate army. There, they have what
is known as an integrated command, at least insofar as these issues are concerned. So the SAA couldn't have attacked or locked
onto a Russian plane, because the transponder data in real time that is part of newer IFF systems actually would mean there would
have to be an intentional manual override over the computerated 'no-lock possible' response the S-200's computer system would
have automatically generated for a Russian plane of any kind.
The S-200 has an extremely high accuracy, not more than a bit different from the S-400 for a single target, and specifically
a target of this size and speed, it would have had to 'miss' the Israeli plane in question, which only has a 10-15% chance of
doing, but then proceed to then actually hit the Russian plane. But not only hit the Russian plane, but critically so. This is
all we can ascertain once we realize that auto-locking without manual override onto the Russian plane with the IFF transponder
in direct connection with the SAA (Russian joint command) at Lattakia, is practically impossible unless we say there was an American
asset working at the controls of the SAA's Lattakia computer.
. . .
The Putin-Erdogan deal reached yesterday indeed offers the strong probability for Syria to win without engaging in a needless
conflict, and the promises of FUKUS attacks to be realized. Still, though they were anyhow, for no discernible reason given. Israel
and France simply attacked in response to Turkey's cunning move. So time is on Russia's side.
That the aim of yesterday's surprise attack is punishment for the Turkish 'about face', which FRN stated as a very likely possible
outcome, (for the record), is evident in that stories from RT and Sputnik reporting on the event had official statements, and
not randomly so, saying that these attacks will not deter or reverse the Turkish-Russian agreement on the final resolution of
Idlib.
What's needed now for the Atlanticists of FUKUS is to damage these relations as much as possible, Turkey vs. Russia, and Russia
vs. France, and to cause Russia to blame France instead of blaming Israel.
This was a calculation, that Russia would not blame Israel due to the successful media hologram that Russia created that Israel
has an inviolable special relationship (they do not, to this extent), and that instead that Russia will blame France. They did
not expect Russia to accept the Western MSM Atlanticist narrative that the SAA had shot down the Russian plane either.
Between blaming France or Israel, the US expected Russia to blame France. Between blaming Syria or France, the US expected
Russia to blame France. Between blaming Syria or Israel, the US expected Israel to be blamed.
They did not expect this hybrid of 'somewhat' blaming Israel for doing 'tricky stuff' in the air, the motives being hard to
prove or qualify.
If Russia was to avoid an MH-17 situation in reverse, they had to think with agility. Russia has the physical evidence, the
flight data, and the missile launch data. If they were going to blame France, which was mostly expected, it would have been a
UNSC charade, a General Assembly charade, and a media charade with 'Putin blaming France' and Russia being accused of having possession
of the evidence from which their case is made, and therefore the evidence being dodgy or even manufactured entirely.
The crash remains of the IL-20 are going to absolutely show that it was hit with a missile, any fragments etc. required to
establish that, will show that's an Aster missile, or similar, like the missiles used in the S-200's. But they aren't going to
show that the impact is consistent with a small missile carried by Israeli planes, or by gun strafing from an attack plane.
Looking at the flightpaths of the Israeli aircraft and missiles, it seems likely the Russian plane would not have been in the
target radar when the S-200 missiles were launched. The targets have the flown across behind the Russian aircraft causing it to
be illuminated by the targeting radar after the missiles were launched. According to wikipedia the S-200 travel at 2.5km per second.
At 35km offshore that is a minimum of 14 seconds from launch, most likely longer depending how far the S200 batteries are from
the coast. Plenty of time to pull the targeting radar across so it also illuminates the Russian plane after missile launch.
Aha! Finally found a partial copy of the Memorandum
of Understanding arrived at in Sochi , which only shows the first 6 points thus its partialness. As noted in previous comment,
the terrorists have already rejected abiding by it, so points 5&6 will not be undertaken, meaning the SAA's free to begin Idlib
Dawn. Any barflies think Turks will convince terrorists to alter their stance?
Some here express that Putin should do this or why he didn't do that. It's easy to express those opinions from the comforts
of home. Never having bullets fly over their heads, or having to pick up the remains of their comrades, blown to bits right
in front of them. And to confront the families of those killed and explain to them why they will never return.
Lets ignore for a second keyboard warriors. However always turning second cheek doesn't work in geopolitics and wars. If not
overtly, then covertly Russia should have said to Israel: Niet! And either MADE SURE that Israel never attacks Syria again (and
put Russian soldiers in harms way), OR provide the means to Syria to defend itself.
Russia hasn't done either. End result? There will be MORE dead Russian soldiers in the future. Why Israel thinks it can bomb
Syria 200x in last few years and get away with it? Because Russia doesnt allow Syria to defend themselves. Why Israel doesnt bomb
Lebanon since 2006? Because they KNOW they would be in the World of hurt if they do. Russia should have done the same in Syria,
but they overplayed "but Israel are our best buds!" hand and got screwed in the process. If Russia doesnt stop Israel even now,
guess what happens next? Exactly, more dead Russians (and Syrians, Iranians, etc).
Yes, we agree; it's Russian policy that must change.
OT--Korean Summit--
Southfrontprovides
this report about what's happening North of the DMZ, and provides a glimpse at what the US-driven propaganda line is as published
within RoK. FYI, Moon and wife just completed a tour of RoK children's hospitals prior to heading North. Please note that Moon
and Kim are on the same page when it comes to dealing with Outlaw US Empire.
One possibility of revenge is to kill FUKUS/Israeli spooks in Idlib, I'm sure that Russia knows where they are & that there can't
be a big MSM splash when a few Kalibr's are fired into Idlib.
"Not only Russian and (allegedly) Israeli and French aircraft and missiles were in the air. Civilian radar also tracked British
Royal Air Force aircraft, which, unusually, had switched on their transponders and gone into holding patterns..."
Like AG17 /#32 I am particularly interested in further information or confirmation of French, British RAF or other NATO involvement
in this ambush. If anyone spots anything further to the above quote from Haaretz used in b's piece, please post.
Finian Cunningham pushes
all the right buttons , but the tree he's trying to bark up instead is an unclimbable greased pole. So, despite his finely
worded argument, nothing of substance will change--the UN will remain mute over Outlaw US Empire illegalities and serial Zionist
aggression. But, I'll admit his words needed to be published, despite his being a lone voice in the wilderness known as Truth.
The reaction guided by the initial emotional state is almost always the incorrect one. This case is no different.
Every regular reader of this blog would love the emotioanlly satisfaction of watching an immediate display of Russian firepower.
But Elijah Magnier is correct in his most recent essay. Russia, Syria and Iran must keep their eyes on the prize, which is a reunified
Syria. Notice how despite numerous provocations over the last e years, Syria is closer to that goal than ever. Russia should never
be goaded into a war against the entire NATO alliance, which is exactly what could happen here.
That does not mean Russia must sit back and take it. It means its responses must be carefully thought out and deliberate.
Not an emotional knee jerk.
According to
Magnier's latest , sources within Russia's Syrian command don't agree with Russian policy:
"'Russia has paid a heavy price for its unwillingness to exploit its superpower position in Syria, and for its failure to prevent
any external force (US, EU or Israel) from bombing its allies in a theatre under its own control and dominance. In order to protect
a perimeter where its forces were deployed, the US attacked and killed hundreds of Syrians in the al Tharda mountains under Obama,
and hundreds more in Deir-Ezzour and al-Badiya. By contrast Israeli missiles flew over the Hmaymeen Russian-Syrian airport and
the US Tomahawks which hit the Shuay'rat airport travelled over the heads of Russian forces', said the source which is part
of the Russian command in Syria." [My emphasis]
Magnier thinks Russia will be able to wring a concession from the Zionists, but like the Outlaw US Empire, I don't see Zionists
as "agreement capable" anymore than their Neocon cousins. There's more in his essay, but I'll allow others to discover those items.
The Idlib agreement and following Zionist crime seems to close another chapter in the ongoing Syrian Saga so a new one can
begin tomorrow. One thing I believe to be certain: Never will the Zionist Abomination and Syria have normal relations; one or
the other will eventually vanish from the pages of time. It remains extremely ironic that they worship the same God.
@188 karlof1... israel has already displayed a complete disregard for the agreement it had with Russia, in giving russia notice..
1 minute notice, when you are using the Russian surveillance plane as a decoy to boot, doesn't suffice.. i do believe Russia has
to address this by giving Israel something in return, and more then a warning..
actually there are a number of good posts from many thoughtful posters today.. grom in particular asks good questions and expresses
my thoughts as well.. i don't have answers to those questions..
@190 karlof1.. i think it was a given the jihadis were going to veto the russia-turkey agreement.. it doesn't change the pressure
on turkey and the jihadis to go to step 2 here with the oct 15th, or 10th deadline.. actually the jihadis were always far game
as i understand it, just that turkey is trying to get them to convert to good moderate jihadi opposition to assad, lol.. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/jihadist-groups-allegedly-reject-idlib-agreement/
Russia looks weak because they are in a weak position. It appears the Anglo American Zionists want to demolish Syria completely.
They have been goading Russia into firing back and and starting the war with NATO. The Russians have not because they know it
will be all out demolition time.
The Russians can hit back but NATO, Israel, and Turkey have the overwhelming force and all want a piece of Syria in partition.
Israel and Turkey are talking about restoring diplomatic relations over the last few days. The Kurd's in a joint alliance with
Israel and NATO may get a piece of the action as well. Israel wants the old kingdom back and will never settle for Iran on its
borders in force. NATO wants to kill of all of Russia's ally's and Turkey wants to be the old Ottoman Turks again. What a toxic
mess.
Unless the Chinese come in with a very large contingent the Russians do not have much of a chance in the long run. Lets hope
this is not the flashpoint to WW III.
They have backed a bear into a corner with her cubs and are poking it with a stick. This will not end well.
From Jose Garcia comment above: "War is for warmongers who never experience the hell they so desire."
Serious followers of MoA understand that we are at a watershed time and reactive measures are never effective when downing
a delusional foe in the throes of death.
Putin knows that this is a proxy fight over ongoing global power and control which empire is losing, not by being beat, but
by being seen clearly as a social cancer that is metastasizing.
Yes, we all should offer condolences for the Russians that have died in this incident. I expect that if truth be known that
more military than those number of Russians have died in the past 24 hours. Should any of those deaths be a reason to start a
nuclear war?
I have said this before and some seem to not understand. The social organization of the West is an aggressive one that thrives
on conflict. They cannot continue to exist without war and that is what Putin is denying them.
The West needs to die of its own internal contradictions and it seems to be doing so quite nicely as Russia and China let it
flail as harmlessly as possible on the way down.......no nukes......yes, more unfortunate deaths as the beast is hemmed in further
and further.
Just to reinforce the notion that a retaliatory display of force by Russia might bring about the R2P response the FUKUS is angling
for. If the Israeli F-16s really pulled off the feint that caused an onside goal by the SAA, well, quite the maneuver, be it luck
or sheer gall.
For all the Putin bashing going on, he appears to be the one riding the tiger. Taking on the entirety of the NATO-zionist
alliance without support from China at the very least would undoubtedly be apocalyptic. Let the rooks and bishops set the trap.
Concerning Russia's next moves. It seems to me that between Putin and Shoigu, Russia immediately moved to present zero reason
to react, and a total range of options to react, both at the same time. Russia has drawn a full hand of cards for whatever it
chooses to do. Everyone can now wait, and nothing they do can change whatever Russia does. And everyone knows this.
I do admire what one commenter here said, that Putin does Diplomacy while Shoigu does Trouble.
As b reported, Putin has said the MOD's statement reflects the position of Russia and that it is fully coordinated with him.
Putin himself has absolved Israel of an act of war, and removed any tension for that kind of response. Therefore the relationship
between Israel and Russia can continue, and it will thus be up to Israel to maintain the smile as Russia upgrades its control
of the airspace. The immediate response, as Putin says, will be to reinforce the protection of Russians in Syria - this can only
mean by air.
The cards that the MOD drew, meanwhile, call Israel's act "hostile" and point out that the Israeli pilots could not have
missed seeing the Russian plane, and thus deliberately hid behind it. Although b linked to the Sputnik report of this, it may
help for a visceral understanding of Russia's take to watch Konashenkov deliver his statement. A two minute clip from Vesti News:
The military will move to protect its soldiers from Israel. That's the next visible move. Whatever that takes, and in whatever
form is effective. Nothing else is changed. France or the US don't seem to figure in the surface statements anywhere. Israel however
is in the sights, and has disqualified itself from having any standing to protest at whatever restrictions Russia places on it.
No one is talking about the Russian claim that they detected launches from a French frigate. The Russian gov later said the Israeli
F-16s used the french frigate for cover.
This is sort of a big deal. If the Israelis launched missiles from nearby the French frigate (FS Auvergne) then this was an
attempt by Israel to get Russia or Syria to hit a NATO vessel which is sick but certainly within the realm of possibilities when
you are dealing with Israel. If that is the case (i don't know maybe, maybe not) then Israel just failed spectacularly and Russia
and France would know what Israel tried.
Smoothies last update on the shootdown is a link to a Russian news site where an ex Ru airforce type says the Syrian air defences
that are integrated with the Russian air defences , don't have friend or foe recognition.
Syrian air defences have been responding to US and Israeli missile attacks for some time now. When the missiles are coming
in they don't sit down and have a smoke and wait for all Russian aircraft to land. They respond instantly and there has never
been a recognition problem. Russians fully upgraded Syrian air defences and don't allow them to recognize Russian aircraft...
bullshit. The US and Israeli's engineered the takedown of the Russian aircraft.
Stumpy's take "riding the tiger" seems apt.
@ Grieved with the link to the Russian military response...thanks
I agree with you that despite the loss of life, this further closes the container within which Israel can act. I expect Russia/Syria
to further restrict the airspace and force Israel to attempt even riskier attacks.
The moments of truth will come when/if Israel starts losing its jets to failed attacks Will they go nuclear to avoid losing
face over their self inflicted demise?
I guess the good part about this situation is that change like this provides opportunity for growth where none existed before.
The yet to see part is whether humanity takes the opportunity to evolve or stay mired it the evolutionary dead end it is in.
I very much doubt that the Russian leadership will somehow seriously answer Israel. The spinelessness of Russian politics sometimes
simply amaze (it's worth recalling, for example, the epic with the seizure of Russian diplomatic property by the US authorities
- there was no intelligible answer from Russia, and still(!) there's no answer).
...
Posted by: alaff | Sep 18, 2018 5:37:06 PM | 173
No answer is necessary. Seizing a foreign embassy was an (unforgettable) violation of International Law and long-standing,
unanimously-respected principles of Diplomacy.
It was a public display of ultra-infantile Yankee Dumbfuckery.
I hadn't seen this quote from Putin but I could have missed it with the troll volume this has brought to MoA
"MOSCOW, Sept. 18 (Xinhua) -- Operations of the Israeli air force are undertaken in violation of Syria's sovereignty, Russian
President Vladimir Putin told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone on Tuesday."
It goes on to say that he intends on protecting Russian forces. I read this to say that he intends on insuring that Syria has
the ability to defend its sovereignty....including airspace.
Will Israel try more incursions before that capability is in place? Stupid is as stupid does applies to all humans and no ethnicity
is excluded.
When does the world get to deal with the base issue of private/public finance? Any alien watching our world turn would laugh
at our inability to observe, let alone self manage out of our parasitic social organization.
Yes. According to the Times of Isreal there are 250,000 Jews living in Moscow. With a population over 11 million that's
about 2.5%. Elsewhere the numbers are lower. About 1/3 of the Jewish population in Moscow have Israeli citizenship (83000). Of
the 200 richest people in Russia, 25% are Jewish according to some reports. So their power is perhaps greater than their numbers
as is seen elsewhere . This is neither good or bad of course unless the power is used to support Israel over their country of
residence/citizenship
I do love Putin's style...almost poetic, certainly high drama. When he says this seems to have been a most unfortunate string
of events leading to this tragedy--when the Israelis know good and goddamn well it wasn't, and they goddamn well know he knows
it wasn't--I can hardly imagine anything more blood curdling to those treacherous bastards. What dread they must feel!
That this was a carefully crafted provocation is hard to dispute. Actually, I was fearing something serious ever since Russia
made it's presentation of false flag preparations to the UNSC a week or two ago. There was plenty of ridicule, to the effect that
what did Russia hope to gain, and how could it possibly prove iFUKUS was directly involved with the terrorists, and look how the
warned attack wasn't materializing. Well I have a suspicion the evidence was damning indeed, and extremely thorough. Did you notice
that there were none of the usual mocking leaks by the West about Russia's presentation? And lo and behold, a few days later the
Hailey and the rest of the US officialdom suddenly declared that a chemical attack wasn't necessary after all for iFUKUS to spring
into action and flatten Syria. ANY ATTACK ON IDLIB AT ALL would be enough to merit an attack by the West. Almost as an afterthought
they started talking about their deep concern for the long-suffering civilians and lovable terrorists. And then I'll be damned
if Russia and Turkey weren't able to work out an understanding on Idlib that would help protect civilians!! (Well...)
It was clear from all this that a significant provocation would have to be supplied, and pretty quickly. Now we know what it
was. We don't know exactly what was SUPPOSED to happen...that French frigate firing at precisely that time and location is very
interesting, and perhaps the hope was that Russian defenses would have immediately launched an ASM at the frigate, and away we
go! The war would have escalated so sideways so fast only curious historians would have ever looked back at the Israeli F-16s
and strange failures-to-warn and said "hmmm." No, it was a NATO+ operation of considerable planning and coordination. And while
what others have commented about this placing additional domestic pressure on Putin will undoubtedly prove true, for 20+ years
he has proven up to the task. So with no immediate response, it is the Israelis who are left holding the bag and now attempt to
slink away with a weak non-apology, and it is they who they know will feel the heat that is to come--who knows what and from who
knows where, but it will come. At the very least Russia will no doubt greatly increase their and Syria's AA defenses, and I could
see it being a very extensive no-fly zone. But I'm pretty sure that won't be the only price Israel pays...and it couldn't happen
to a more deserving pack of weasels.
@james, bullshit to the piece smoothie has linked to which he has taken the information from. Russia are operating aircraft constantly
in Syria. Syrian air defence must have and does have the capability to react instantly to an attack. Russia have fully upgraded
the systems and integrated them with their own.
Under these circumstances, do find you it conceivable that the Russian upgrade would not allow the Syrian radars to determine
friend (Russian, Syrian aircraft) or foe. From my understanding it is the radar or control system that determines friend or foe,
not the missile.
Governments don't care about people, period. Russia is no different. Putin has to think long term. A handful of soldiers and a
plane or two is not a big loss. Turkey is a big price to have on team Russia. Think about gas pipelines to EU, black sea and Ukraine,
not just Syria. It's a balancing act with many goals and they of course diverge from what Damascus wants. But like one commenter
said, Putin is inching closer and closer to all the goals while FUKUS and Israel throws tantrums and monkey wrenches in desperation.
How wide is the beam of the targeting radar.
Senario - going by the Russian mod map the Israeli planes come in behind and to one side of the Russian plane and launches missiles.
Syrian targeting radar locks onto the missiles and launch SAMs. The Israeli missiles heading towards the coast further north cross
behind the Russian aircraft which is also briefly illuminated by the targeting radar. If by that time the Syrian SMS are in close
proximity, a second or so of illumination as the radar is tracking the missiles is all it would take
@213 psychohistorian - who wonders how long Israel can act as a fool (while the whole world continues to ignore the "base issue
of private/public finance?")
I think it's really important to remember how thin the slices of escalation are. We have continually been schooled in this
by Russia. Russia doesn't operate on the Hollywood scale of proportion of "one dumb white-hat punch versus one equally dumb black-hat
punch". This is the unreality in which we in the west have previously been schooled.
Instead, Russia acts as if everything were very real and very serious. She acts in the slow movement of cats, or samurai warriors,
when they face each other. Somewhere in the choreography is the killing blow, but where will it strike? Where will it land? Neither
cats nor samurai fighters know. So they slice each movement very thin.
There is no straight line from where we are today to where we might wish to be tomorrow. There will be innumerable slices of
escalation and play and counter-play as the dialog of violence talks itself through its many paces.
We should not wish to hurry the day when everyone in the world agrees that Russia has won a supreme victory that marks a turning
point in the story of the human race. We should instead - if I may offer the suggestion - relish the small certainties of each
day along this measured path.
And this is just as regards Syria. But you could extend it to your overarching point too.
~~
As to this other, I suspect the answer to your unending advocacy for human finance will sprout unnoticed from the ground, far
away from the battlefields, as an authentic alternative that first they will ignore, then laugh at, then fight against, and then
yield to as it wins.
Please never stop advocating for this. You're right that it underlies everything. The reminder is important. Sometimes you
have to overturn a paradigm by hand-cranking the wheel.
Perhaps what the Russians ought to do is open an investigation into the incident in which the Ilyushin transport plane was shot
down and require all parties involved to attend as witnesses.
It would be in Israel's best interests then to surrender its fighter jet pilots who sheltered in the transport plane's radar
shadow into Russian custody to give their point of view and explain their motives and behaviour. After all, the investigation
would be as much to clear Israel of any blame if the pilots were to admit that they were not acting on orders.
If Israel were to refuse to surrender the pilots, then that reaction could be read by the Russians to mean that Israel bears
guilt for the transport plane's shootdown.
Incidentally did anyone notice that what the fighter pilots did was exactly the same as what Ukrainian fighter jets were doing
to civilian passenger jets during the Donbass war in 2014?
At this point, and in the absence of any evidence, I'm inclined to think the French frigate was unwittingly used by the Israeli's
as cover, with the intention to draw fire on the frigate. How do those French sailors feel about being only a flick of a switch
from incineration?
The only lingering question is what was the French frigate doing their in the first place?
Grieved "Russia doesn't operate on the Hollywood scale of proportion of "one dumb white-hat punch versus one equally dumb black-hat
punch". This is the unreality in which we in the west have previously been schooled."
That is what I am seeing here and on other comment threads. A majority expecting Russia to be a Hollywood white hat and booing
them if they don't measure up to Hollywood.
The rest of your post equally as good as that line.
Putin's statement to the press
"First of all, I would like to express condolences to the families of the dead.
As for your comparison with the downing of our plane by a Turkish fighter, this was a different situation. The Turkish fighter
deliberately shot down our aircraft.
In this case, it is more a chain of tragic circumstances because an Israeli fighter did not down our aircraft. It goes without
saying that we must get to the bottom of this. Our attitude towards this tragedy is set forth in a statement by our Defence Ministry,
and has been fully coordinated with me.
As for reciprocal action, this will be primarily aimed at ensuring additional security for our military and our facilities
in the Syrian Arab Republic. These steps will be seen by everyone." http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58586
Note "Our attitude towards this tragedy is set forth in a statement by our Defence Ministry, and has been fully coordinated
with me."
Plenty of links to the statement by the spokesman for the ministry of defence in this thread, also Shoigu's phone call to Lieberman.
Nutty's phone call to Putin.. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58589
The Israeli Prime Minister expressed his condolences over the death of the 15 servicemen aboard the Il-20 aircraft shot down in
Syria on September 17. With respect to a thorough investigation, Benjamin Netanyahu promised to provide detailed information on
the activities of the Israeli Air Force over Syrian territory on that day, which will be delivered soon to Moscow by the Israeli
Air Force commander.
Vladimir Putin noted that operations of this nature by the Israeli Air Force are in violation of Syria's sovereignty. In this
particular case, Russian-Israeli agreements on preventing dangerous incidents had not been observed either, and that resulted
in the Russian aircraft coming under Syrian air defence fire. The Russian President called on the Israeli side to prevent such
incidents in the future.
Paul Craig Roberts who is one of Putins biggest supporters is displeased in his latest article. Its been brewing for awhile.
Regardless of where you stand on him, at some point we should be wondering if Israel/US has Kompromat on him. I have speculated
on a few occasions that Putin might be controlled and this Cold War II is just a mutually beneficial fiction to feed the respective
MIC and maintain/increase power.
Recently read that Russia is planning to criminalize fake news. Obviously empowered by peoples concern of western influence
but as we all know such powers can be abused .
The Russian military is a defensive one to guard the homeland. Outside of Russia their military is at a disadvantage against the
US, NATO, and Israel and they know it. With the US and it's bootlickers using every excuse in the book to sanction and destroy
the Russian economy thus the nation Putin has to walk a fine line between all parties and can only spare a small force, which
has done excellent work, in Syria. Putin knows full well the Israelis and the US are just begging for an excuse to wipe out the
Russian force in Syria thus Putin has to take the punches and use his wits unlike the exceptional American keyboard warriors from
the one indispensable nation on the planet who's answer to everything is brute force. One only has to see the results in Syria
since the Russians have arrived and agree they have done a remarkable job even with the US backing and supplying the rebels. Russia
is in Syria looking out for it's interests and it has no obligation to defend anyone as there is no country on the planet save
China that would go to bat for Russia. Most any other country would have buckled and destroyed itself from within with the stuff
the US and it's bootlickers have thrown at it but Russia is continuing to thrive thanks to Putin's focus on his country and people
and countering those that wish to destroy Russia using his brains against stupid US brawn. As one commentor has said the world
should be thankful for Putin's restraint as it's kept WW3 at bay.
Vladimir Putin noted that operations of this nature by the Israeli Air Force are in violation of Syria's sovereignty. In this
particular case, Russian-Israeli agreements on preventing dangerous incidents had not been observed either, and that resulted
in the Russian aircraft coming under Syrian air defence fire. The Russian President called on the Israeli side to prevent such
incidents in the future.
Top Norwegian officials have now admitted they "had very limited knowledge" of events unfolding in Libya during 2010 and 2011,
prior to NATO's military intervention on behalf of anti-Gaddafi rebels -- a war that resulted in regime change and a failed
state ruled by competing governments and extremist militias to this day. Norway enthusiastically joined the US, UK, and French
led bombing of the country initiated in March 2011 even knowing full well its military knew next to nothing of what was unfolding
on the ground.
But what did decision-makers have to go on? Consider this absurd admission from the official report: "In such situations,
decision-makers often rely on information from media and other countries," the report reads.
Russia is on reasonable terms with Israel and recognizes the state of Israel. Russia is on good terms with both Iran and Syria
and recognizes their legitimate governments and is insuring that the Syrian state is not destroyed by Israel US. Neither Syria
nor Iran recognize the state of Israel. Russia does not interfere in Iran Syrian actions against Israel nor does it interfere
in Israel direct actions against Syria Iran - till now. Russia has been the mediator.
Until now Israel has not risked burning
its bridges with Russia. Now Nutty sends his airforce chief running off to Moscow with an olive branch in his mouth and another
stuck in his arse for good measure.
Is Nutty trying to pull a swiftly or are US zionists trying to burn Nutty's bridge with Moscow...
NATO's name for the operation was the US code name 'Operation Odyssey Dawn,' and Norway flew 596 strike missions during
the first five months of the NATO intervention, dropping 588 bombs on Libyan targets, according to the report. Norway
had provided six F-16 fighter jets and its pilots were reported to have conducted 10 percent of all coalition
strikes against pro-Gaddafi forces.
You are indeed correct to point his out. Remember, the word Quisling was invented here. As for our former PM Stoltenberg, now
NATO chief, he is the ultimate hypocrite. His best 'defense' is that most likely they have something on him. The happenings of
22. July 2011 was a turning point. The victims within his party were advocating boycott of Israel the day before on that very
island.
Harry
Public admission on right or wrong is no problems. S-300 - much depends on how low Israel is willing to crawl. The more subservient
to Russia Israel becomes, the less chance that Russia will supply an S-300 to Syria.
After Turkey shot down the Russian plane
then kowtowed, Russia has signed a deal for the S-400 with Turkey. The Israeli attack it seems was due to Turkey reaching an agreement
with Russia on Idlib. How about using future Israeli attacks in SAA territory as a gauge.
Brendan O'Connell has been harping on the theme that Putin and Bibi are best buddies. According to him, Israel 'acquires' US tech
and sells it to the Russians and the Chinese. He says that Russians living in Israel dominate the high tech sector in Israel and
reverse engineer American high tech received by Israel. He is quite insistent that this is the big issue that still goes unrecognized.
At the very least, his claims, which may be exaggerated or simply mistaken, should be critically examined. They would go a long
way to explaining Putin's passivity. They point to material and financial considerations -- as opposed to ideological or political
-- as having the uppermost importance, i.e., follow the money. O'Connell suggests that all of these leaders are in bed together
and are just playing a game with us rubes. He's quite the cynic, but also quite entertaining.
The main foreign policy issue of concern to Netanyahu is removing Iranian forces (how ever insignificant they are) from Syria.
Netanyahu has been able to rely on some support from Putin for this up until now. How much longer?
As for all the idiotic
(IQ < 25) losers trolling here, as Clausewitz said, "war is the mere continuation of politics with other means" (not "by other
means"), so war is all about politics. As Iraq and Afghanistan have shown recently, you can have the allegedly "most powerful
military" in the world but if you don't understand the politics, you will lose, lose and keep on fucking losing. FUKUS have wanted
regime change in Damascus for the last several years but it hasn't happened so FUKUS are the fucking losers so far and Putin will
now ensure they go on losing.
Harry, how long would Syria last if Russia handed them the Keys to an S-300 system and walked away. Not long. Russia has inserted
themselves into Syria to prevent the destruction of Syria by foreign and proxy forces.
A better gauge than an S-300 is required.
- make sure there are no alternative gas pipelines to Europe
- make sure there is no ethnic/religious independence threat to Caucasus region
- sale of arms
Iranian interest in the Middle East
- make sure there is no ethnic/religious independence threat to Iran
Saudi problem with Iran
- ethnic/religious indepence threat of their oil rich region
- the Strait of Hormuz
Israeli problem
- feeling delegitimized and threatened by everybody
So if Middle Easterners could dial down on the threat level ...
Present US interests in the Middle East
- a Christian Zionist electorate
- Saudi money
- sale of arms
Chinese interest in the Middle East
- oil, lots of oil
As long as Saudi Arabia and Iran cannot solve their problem, this rift will be exploited by other powers for their own ends
I probably missed some stuff. But Russian interests are best served by selling to all countries.
IFF is an add-on pack to the command vehicle in the S200 battery. It is used to inform the battery commander of targets, or targets
to avoid, prior to launch.
Once a missile is launched IFF is no longer used.
It is possible that either the SAA S200 battery saw IFF of the IL20 and thought it was spoofed (not unreasonable), or the Israeli
aircraft suppressed the IFF response received by the SAA battery.
What is also likely is that the SAA / RuAF integration in air defence is less than optimal.
Meanwhile back in the real world, the trap that Putin has set for the jihadist losers with the latest agreement is pretty fucking
obvious except perhaps to the fuckwit trolls that have infected this site recently.
The
Russians have given the jihadists until 15th October, 2018 to leave the demilitarised zone but the
jihadists have
rejected the agreement on Idlib so they're not going to move . In a month or so the SAA/Russia can slice 15-20km off Idlib
any time they like after that with nothing more than a rant from Nikki Haley and some CIF crap. The first 20 km gives the SAA
Khan Shaykhoun and Jisr ash-Shugur. Another month and the SAA can quite "legally"*** take the whole southern Idlib. Looks to me
like Putin is relying yet again on the complete lack of strategic understand demonstrated by the fuckwits, whoever they might
be, backing the jihadists.
Even if the jihadists do pull back, which I doubt, they are stupid enough to breach the ceasefire within a month or so because
their imbecilic patrons pay to see "action".
*** - of course, the SAA can legally take Syrian territory any time it likes but FUKUS would disagree and might take illegal
actions to prevent it. With the jihadists breaking the Idlib agreement, it would be harder for FUKUS to become involved not that
it would necessarily stop them but do they really want a World War in defence of Al Qaeda?.
In a plot fit for an award-winning drama series, last week U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry traveled to Moscow to discuss
energy topics with Novak. Although no details concerning oil markets were disclosed, these were bound to have been discussed:
Perry praised Russia for its readiness to keep oil supply stable just as he warned Moscow to "stop using energy as a weapon."
In a no less charming puzzle of mixed signals, earlier this week Iran's OPEC governor accused its friend Russia and foe
Saudi Arabia of stealing its market share and enjoying higher oil revenues at Tehran's expense. A day later, Foreign Ministry
spokesman Bahram Quasemi dismissed "media reports" containing these accusations, saying, "We do not agree with some reports
of media."
Everyone involved in this geopolitical dance seems to be walking a thin line between its interests and those of other stakeholders
that are at odds with its own.
Putin is the master of cool understatement, and his comment about what a complex chain of accidents were required to lead
to this tragedy I took to be dripping with venom. Especially since the Israelis know perfectly well this was intentional, and
they know Putin knows. I would say they are extremely nervous right now.
A major provocation was inevitable. The false flag chemical attack was disrupted with apparently magnificent intel. I heard
a lot of scoffing when Russia presented evidence to the UNSC, but it must have been unusually damning and conclusive of direct
Western collision with the terrorists. Did you notice there were none of the now customary Western leaks mocking the Russian presentation?
Not a peep. Suddenly Hailey and the shills just changed their tune, that in fact a chemical attack wasn't necessary for them to
act, that any attack at all upon terrorists in Idleb would be sufficient. Belatedly they started mentioning their overwhelming
concern for the safety of the citizens, but then Russia and Turkey reached an understanding which would (at least in theory) address
that. The neocons and zionists were apoplectic. Something had to be done!
It is hardly debatable that this was a very carefully orchestrated and coordinated NATO+I operation. The West no doubt
knew the Russian aircraft's patrol area and customary length of mission so this could be timed for when it was low on fuel and
returning to base, its movements most predictable.
The French frigate was just where it needed to be to provide cover and fire missiles. We can only guess as to how the operation
was supposed to conclude...probably with the hopes that the Russians would assume the French had shot down their plane and fire
off an ASM or two (those Brit planes were probably lurking in the background to provide additional cover for the frigate to beat
a hasty retreat and provide quick escalatory counter-attack).
It was a quite sophisticated neocon war plan. The only thing that failed was the immediate response by Russia. Now Israel is
left holding the bag and no doubt extremely nervous about kicking the hornet's nest. We don't know all the ways Russia will respond,
but life will become much more difficult for Israeli pilots, and at the very least Russia will "for the good of everyone and to
prevent such accidents in the future" more or less close at least a large hunk of Syrian airspace...but I bet there will be all
sorts of "accidents" involving Israeli and other Western operatives. Russia has already demonstrated its intel is frightening,
I'd say they will use it.
Thanks for the tip on Brendan O'Connell. Do you have a link as I have been thinking along the same lines, which probably make
us one of a dozen out of 7 billion 99% ers, or have I understated this? A quick search shows he was jailed for critizing Israel
in AU and his blog was shut down. I dont do twitter
The IL 20 must have been squawking their assigned transponder code that would tell Russian Radars that this aircraft is a friend.
Not to long ago, Israeli planes squawked US transponders IDs so the Russians did not fire at them and they were able to drop
their missiles
and return safely home.
In the same vein, if the SAA AD is linked to the Russian radars, how can a missile guided by this radar go after an aircraft
displaying friendly numbers?
What kind of EW were the F-16 using if they got the Russian radars to allow shooting at an identified Friend?
Then, on approach to a runway, all aircraft will be squawking assigned transponder codes. Therefore there is something fishy
in the narrative
that it was an S200 salvo that downed the IL 20.
Perer AU 1 @ 108 I wholly agree with Peter. I find the comments on this thread totally out of character with the informed and
balanced comments usually found on this site. Russia doesn't do knee-jerk. They analyse, prepare and if necessary act in their
best interests (and those of the whole planet) to prevent a wider war. Don't confuse comment for response.
For all the noise about the Skripals and chemical weapons in Syria, the last thing the British government wants is a war with
anyone because unless the government goes straight to thermonuclear weapons, it is fucked if it starts a conventional war with
any country other than San Marino*** or Sark. Eight years of austerity and overpriced hardware has gutted the British military
until it's little more than a glorified militia which would be locked up by the police if it went with a coup. Back in the 1980s,
there was much talk of a military coup in the UK if the Labour Party under Michael Foot won an election. The reduction in the
size of the UK military and events in Iraq now mean that anyone suggesting that a military coup might take place in the UK if
the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn win the next election would be given a one-way ticket to the funny farm along with Boris Johnson.
As for the rest of NATO, including all the Netherland's tank divisions, it's also pretty well fucked and most likely incapable
of organising a piss up in a brewey. NATO can't even do a decent black propaganda operation. Anything more complex, such as a
"very carefully orchestrated and coordinated NATO+I operation", forget it
In a series of tweets the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) explained that its jets were targeting a Syrian facility "from which
systems to manufacture accurate and lethal weapons were about to be transferred on behalf of Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon."
It claimed that the weapons were "meant to attack Israel."
An hour-long attack on Latakia began around 10pm local time, and targeted a power station as well as two facilities belonging
to the Syrian military. Syrian officials said the attack was "foreign" and came "from the sea," but could not initially confirm
rumors that Israel was behind it. Seven people were injured in the attack, according to Syrian officials.
Whether it's true or false, I can't confirm now.
However, *Igor Bundy* is someone who I believe to be a highly credible source.
Please mind the 'paste job'.
Most Important is YOU see what's been posted the past hour.
>>>>>>>>>>
Igor Bundy
Russia declares no fly zone over Israel coast and northern Israel..
Syrian radar data shows it is not responsible for shooting down the Russian IL20..
comment image
Based on NOTAMs issued by #Russia|n Navy, if an #Israel|i fighter jet wants to fly out of #Israel & even attack #Syria, it
must fly above 19,000ft. If flies below, it will be shot-down by Russian S-300F. But flying above 19,000ft will cause their shot-down
by #Syria|n S-200s!
#Russia|n Navy "Marshal Ustinov" (055) Slava-class guided missile cruiser which has 64 S-300F surface to air missiles is now
sailing in #MediterraneanSea waters NW. of #Israel. However it has blocked airspace over NW of Israel till FL190 but its S-300s
are dangerous till FL900!
3 Reply
39 minutes ago
Igor Bundy
Guest
Level 8 - Legatus Legionis
Igor Bundy
#Russia not received data from #Israel on situation with IL-20 in #Syria – Peskov
https://sptnkne.ws/j9ce
-#Russia launched an S-400 missile/s against the Israeli jets which were dropping bombs 100Km away, so we're kept in the dark
for now.
-#Russia responded immediately to the attack before the il-20M was lost Because the S-200 missiles were launched 20 min after
the first wave.
-The attack lasted about 50 min, so only 4 F-16 doing the bombing is unlikely
0 Reply
28 minutes ago
Igor Bundy
Guest
Level 8 - Legatus Legionis
Igor Bundy
Missing from the Russian map are the two British Air Force planes reported in Israel to have taken off from the Akrotiri airbase
in Cyprus, and to have maintained a holding pattern above the flight path of the Israeli F-16 fighter-bombers as they moved into
their firing positions.
Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles protect the Khmeimim airbase; their radar and strike ranges are at least 400 kilometres.
On Monday evening this meant that Russian air defence crews and the Khmeimim base command tracked the Israeli aircraft from their
takeoff positions out into the Mediterranean, and then as they turned north on their attack run. The S-400 crews were also tracking
the British aircraft as they took off from Cyprus. When the French frigate Auvergne fired missiles, the S-400 crews at Khmeimim
tracked their flight paths.
Subsequent Russian press reports and Defence Ministry releases say the timing of the IDF firing at Latakia, the French missile
launches, and the destruction of the Il-20 occurred within seconds of one another.
Grieved at 225:We should not wish to hurry the day when everyone in the world agrees that Russia has won a supreme victory
that marks a turning point in the story of the human race. We should instead - if I may offer the suggestion - relish the small
certainties of each day along this measured path.
Likewise in a chess match, an objective assessment of position rarely admits checkmate.
THE GENIUS
W. Shakespeare
No limit, no space, no horizon;
And leave him drawing from his flight
The gigantic curve in the void.
March on your mission, march; heaven
Does not have the measure
From his wings of fire; the spaces
They shudder at the breath of their life.
Marching is your mission, to go without respite
Of the infinite arcane
Through the dark and eternal path,
Riding, sovereign rider,
On the tame steed of destiny.
True, but it is most probably not the last Il-20 that Russia has. It is a huge loss, but it is not a devastating loss yet.
Same about the SIGINT professionals perished with the plane.
> Why did they allow the Israelis to get *so dangerously close* to their prized asset - the Il-20
They commanded Il-20 to go landing - a bit too late as it turned out. I also think that Israel jets are barraging in Israeli
and international air around Syria pretty regular. Should Russians down all their planes when Israeli jets are in air? That would
be a de facto Israel's no fly zone over Syria.
In a hindsight Il-20 should had better be ordered to land on some faraway airfield instead.... Well, hindsight is cheap.
> What about the Russian EW-systems?
I do not think they were ready to deflect Syrian missiles, even if that could be technically possible. However the question
how can Russian aircrafts be better protected from the event of SAA AD friendly fire is very important.
> Why was the Il-20 not escorted?
What would it change? Would the said escort bomb out al lthe Syrian S-200 stations in the firing range around?
> 4) What about Russian-Syrian coordination??? We know that the S-200s operated by the Syrians had been upgraded/serviced -
this *must* have included the surveillance/tracking radars, as well as the IFF systems. So how could the Syrian SAM crews even
fire the missile? Even if the Israelis claim that they informed the Russians just short of a minute or so before the strike, the
Russians *must have seen - AND - tracked* the flight of the F-16s well in advance and even from their take-off, so they *should
have informed* the Syrians.
very good set of questions, but I think most of it would be military secrets.
Few thoughts about though:
4.a) other states than Russia should not get Russian military IFF systems. Or they would end up in USA/Israel hands. For example
Iran could not save their lead nuclear physics scientists from assassination. Israeli agents are in numbers all through middle
east. Also Israel has a number of Soviet tanks taken form Arab states in 1960-s and 1970-s.
All Soviet military secrets that could had been in those tanks - fallen into Israeli/NATO hands then. So, no. Russia would
not want USA strategic bombers raining nukes over Russian cities using cloned Russian-Syrian IFF units to disable all Russian
AD missiles, period.
4.b) as the infamous video about Pantsir-S1 destruction suggests, Syrian AD crew are not very well educated and disciplined.
Of course SAA should not fire old dumb S-200 missile when big ally aircraft was within the range. If anything that was exactly
how Ukraine downed civilian aircraft over Black Sea in 2001 and they used exactly the S-200 missile. Frankly, I am not very much
concerned about Israel behavior, they are not Russian allies and they are officially at war with Syria. So blaming Israeli on
failing to secure Russian personnel is futile. But the [mis]performance of SAA AD crew - if the story reported by Russian MoD
is true - is saddening and alarming.
> What about Israeli EW-capabilities? Are Israeli F-16s now equipped with systems that allow them to fool Russian & Syrian
radars and EW systems to the point where they can fly and approach a highly hostile area literally *undisturbed*,
If so, then they "showed their hand" prematurely for a questionable limited reward.
They spoiled their top secret then, if that was so.
> Shouldn't Russia lodge an official complaint and demand explanations from Paris?
Maybe. But there would be no point in reading Paris's explanation. If it will even come. Remind me, did Paris answered to Russian
enquiry about Skripals affair misinvestigation?
no one has mentioned the domestic audience in israel.
the few friends in israel that i talked to and their military "happiness" level is on par with some of the US military folks
morale back home. near suicidal sadly. the truth is the more the media and these trolls spin it as some kind of "smart" move by
upvoting and jerking themselves off mutually like homos...really has not gained an ounce of approval in their own citizen's hearts,
who are tired of war.
this is asides from the traitors within israel themselves drowning from the innocent blood they spill justifying it as some
kind of revenge for the yom kippur and early state wars that they know is irrelevant. these little cunts sound like some nerds
giggling about murder. their excuse like the nazi's will be "it was just orders"........ ironic. a lot of my jewish friends are
great friends to me so i prefer not to paint the entire country with a broad stroke of stereotype.
the younger generation constantly booze themselves and drug themselves to erase the faked reality of being told they are doing
good for their countrymen. it is a battle of the subconscious for their own souls and spirit and they are losing it daily. they
are preparing for the big war with hezbollah (secretly in their hearts) which they know will not be as easily done as what their
media paints it to be. pray for these innocents. from hearing about their grandfathers actually fighting off the entire neighborhood
into patrolling the entire neighborhood to their own detriment. they are even losing faith in their God because of these traitors.
some would sell you this as a smart move to force putin to show his cards, but again putin is too sharp to overreact. the more
insults the more certain putin is that he made the right move. he has russia's interests in his mind. and making such impulsive
moves will destabilize the progress the economy of Russia has going for itself. it must be frustrating, i am sure these nerds
are hoping that Putin grows too old quickly.
Does Israel really care? It seems that Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman believe they can act with impunity since no one
has held them
to account to date.
Yes she does, otherwise CO of IAF wouldn't have been on his way to Moscow and Bibi urgently calling Putin. Once one gets more
complete details of the event, such as teeny-weeny fact of Russia not providing Syrian AD (and with a good reason) with own IFF
technology and codes--things become much more clearer. This was confirmed today. Of course military counter-intelligence still
has to do its due diligence but it increasingly begins to look more as FUBAR rather than some "special" operations. Most likely,
in fact highly likely, IAF F-16s were detected and tracked (and even possibly locked on) by Syrian S-200 and they "masked" (the
oldest trick in the book) by descending IL-20. Putin was explicit in his conversation with Bibi that Israel not only violates
Syria's airspace but violated previous agreements with Russia on matters of attacking Syrian/Iranian targets. There will be consequences
and Putin also was explicit today when stated that, and I quote, "everyone will notice them". While it is a sad day for Russia
and is agony for families of the crew, it is also clear (and thank God) that France and her ship had no hand in it whatsoever.
Is Putin between a rock and a hard place in Syria? He's committed significant capabilities to assist Assad in regaining
control of Syrian territory, but FUKUS and Turkey are playing a spoilers game with the possibility that they could enter the Syrian
conflict with an even larger force structure.
Actually, he didn't commit "significant" capabilities. They are very moderate by Russia standards. You want to see significant
capabilities--Google Vostok 2018. That's significant. The appearance of new capabilities in Syria is long overdue, precisely for
the reason that it is Russia who is keeping a barrel to Turkey's temple, not the other way around. They are needed their anyway
just in case FUKUS decides to respond to absolutely unexpected and evil chemical weapons attacks by Assad.
It seems to me that Putin's response was too 'soft'. Unlike Shoigu's.
Perhaps there is some divergence between Russian political and military policies with regard to Israel. What happens as a result
of this tragedy will clarify matters. Putin cannot afford to alienate his military (and thus the Russian people) for the sake
of Israel.
Right. One must ask why Putin is acting this way. He has actually taken Trump off the hook. If the offensive had gone in Trump
would have been under a lot of pressure to take military action when the WH drama played out. The DMZ agreement prevents that,
and now he takes this soft line over this bit of Israeli cleverness that cost Shoigu 14 men for no good reason, Curious. One might
think he does not want to rock the boat before the mid term.
Right. One must ask why Putin is acting this way. He has actually
taken Trump off the hook. If the offensive had gone in Trump would have
been under a lot of pressure to take military action when the WH drama
played out.
Bingo! Plus a chance for Turkey to clean up her act a bit. It is a good old anecdote about two bulls (old and young) standing
on the hill looking down at the cows' herd.
Perhaps there is some divergence between Russian political and military policies with regard to Israel.
This divergence is mostly a fantasy of Western political class and media. They project their own view on how their own government
operates (or rather does not) onto Kremlin and that is why they always wrong.
There is a growing sentiment, that Russia is handling too softly the attacks on its armed forces. The lack of visible or spectacular
retaliations, counteractions is making an impression of a very narrow set of choices in Russia's Syria policy.
Hahahahha good try smoothie but with due respect I take it you meant a "white helmets chemical weapons attack". It is ok now to
drop the myth and speak truth to the war criminals hiding within the white helmets.
The Israeli government delights in taking sniper shots and seeing innocents accidentally killed. In this case they were attacking
Stria to sabotage their fight against UN declared terrorists. Disgraceful and an abandonment of all that is held high in civil
society.
I would normally totally discount this as the wrong kind of 'conspiracy theory', and I think that is still very highly likely
to be the most appropriate response. It would be surprising if the French were prepared to leave a 'smoking gun' on the deliberate
shooting down of a Russian aircraft, and the explanation Flores gives of this does seem tortuous.
However, there do seem to be some puzzles about the French – and British – roles which need sorting out.
At the outset, the Russians were clearly pointing to the French.
What may have survived, when that story was replaced by the far more plausible one of a 'friendly fire' incident provoked by
the Israelis, is the suggestion that the French frigate was firing missiles.
So in 'Haaretz' this morning, we found Anshel Pfeffer writing that 'France denied any involvement in the downing of the Russian
Ilyushin Il-20, but, interestingly, did not deny launching missiles.'
'Something was obviously going on Monday night. Not only Russian and (allegedly) Israeli and French aircraft and missiles were
in the air. Civilian radar also tracked British Royal Air Force aircraft, which, unusually, had switched on their transponders
and gone into holding patterns – most likely to avoid being somehow involved in the exchange of fire over Latakia. The Ilyushin
Il-20 was not so fortunate.'
It would not seem inherently so terribly surprising if indeed the French vessel did fire missiles. However, I am curious as
to what kinds of explanations of this seem most plausible.
Likewise, the RAF switching on transponders is not so very odd. However, it would seem to make the one minutes's notice given
to the Russians stand out even more than it did already.
Obviously, this could easily be explained by 'cock-up' – Israeli fighters seeking safety by hiding behind the Russian plane,
and the 'deconfliction' not working according to plan.
It could also, however, be explained by conspiracy. And if there was an Israeli conspiracy, then questions might at least arise
as to whether there was prior knowledge on the part of others, which raises the possibility of either tacit, or active, encouragement..
Joaquín Flores has an interesting, however unconfirmable, reading of the facts.
See here:
https://www.fort-russ.com/2...
Anyway, after what happened in the last 60 hours, if FUKUS still wants to take an early military iniciative, it must do it bluntly,
without justifications, by means of grossly evident provocation or direct attack. The white helmets/gas attacks mantra became,
somehow, a bit awkward.
Putins measured diplomacy and apparent charitable responses to deliberate provocations have two downsides' Russian public opinion
of /Putin as "weak" and the emboldening of American neocons. At some point Putin, goaded or not, is going to have to respond with
force.
The question of a passive homing SAM navigating it's way to the largest radar cross section within it's arc, and not to the smaller
returns from alleged nearby strike aircraft was raised in relation to MH17. If this occurred here then IAF casual reliance on
a misplaced belief in the competence of the SAA air defences may be a tenuous way to blame Israel.
However, Russian EW data hoovered up during the attack may show another story.
Another obvious question is the 'one minute' warning time given by IAF. The Russians would have been aware of the ingressing
F16's and probably their actual takeoff's but did not clear their own IL-20 aircraft out of the airspace ahead of them, possibly
indicating that an IAF presence was a regular and normal event not necessarily resulting in strikes. What is on IAF / US EW data
as intercepted Russian voice and data link material may show the details of that - not that anything but the cherry picks will
ever be released.
Is the hotline between the Russians and the Israeli's still in place because if it is then the Russians are giving tacit approval
for future strikes, its not as if the Russians are going to get the call and say no we don't approve of this one and the IAF is
going to turn around and go home. This isn't the same as the hotline between the Russians and the US as they both have a common
enemy, ISIS, Al Qaeda etc. The US isn't intentionally targeting the Syrians and Iranians, the Israeli's are specifically targeting
them and they are supposed to be Russian allies. I don't see how the Russians get a pass on this until they completely stop all
IAF activity directed at Syria.
Putins measured diplomacy and apparent charitable responses to deliberate provocations have
two downsides' Russian public opinion of /Putin as "weak" and the emboldening of American
neocons. At some point Putin, goaded or not, is going to have to respond with force.
I believe Putin's response will be more subtle. Something by the GRU rather than by force.
What? I have no clue. Some type of blackmail? I would bet they have plenty of dirt on the
Israeli Defense Minister, Mad Dog Avigdor. Or perhaps giving more of a greenlight to
IRGC/Hez? Not that they need one but he has reportedly in the past discouraged them, and kept
them away from the Golan. Speedily completing the Syrian S-300 build-up. Funding Hamas?
Exposure of Israeli meddling in the Ukraine? Assisting the IRGC in an attack or two on
Israeli interests in Europe or Latin America or ...? All of the above? Plenty of other
indirect non-kinetic options are available to them.
not sure the MOD or the man on the street will be placated with a subtle but brilliant chess
move. they are likely looking for more of a kick in the balls. what is this, the 3rd strike
what with the turks and americans already?
The question of a [edited !] semi-active homing SAM navigating it's way to the largest radar
cross section within it's arc, and not to the smaller returns from alleged nearby strike
aircraft was raised in relation to MH17.
If this occurred here then IAF casual reliance on a misplaced belief in the competence of
the SAA air defences may be a tenuous way to blame Israel. However, Russian EW data hoovered
up during the attack may show another story.
Another obvious question is the 'one minute' warning time given by IAF.
The Russians would have been aware of the ingressing F16's and probably their actual
takeoff's but did not clear their own IL-20 aircraft out of the airspace ahead of them,
possibly indicating that an IAF presence was a regular and normal event not necessarily
resulting in strikes.
What is on IAF / US EW data as intercepted Russian voice and data link material may
Maybe the landing approach thesis works – experts in Russ aviation would know if Russ
equivalent to(US/UK) AN/APS-13 aft approach radar, used since 1942 in a series of versions,
was/is fitted to Il20 in question.
Seems that anybody smart enough to build radar would fit tailradar in combat zone, and
leave it on. Note actual radar may have been superseded by an infra red detector a question
for experts. Has been long time since 1942, technical methods improve. And the search
radars?
Ok, pilot, engineer, copilot are doing approach and busy and everybody else just being
inattentive? F 16 were not tracked the entire time? Again, maybe. Radar works at 6000 feet
and horizon still 152 km away F16 can't sneak up unseen fast but not that fast
I always maintain situational awareness in war zones, helps to live longer.
software of S200 can not target friendlies, system was is integrated.
"... Exactly. The zionazis want Syria. They are activating all their options and working overtime to keep their proxies employed against Syria. If the zionazis cant take Syria, it means they don't get to have Lebanon either. It also means their attempt to wreck Iran and reduce it to a failed state is a non starter. ..."
"Also, speaking of Syria: has anybody noticed that the agreement between Turkey and Russia
has removed any justification for a US attack on Syria and that the Israelis have organized
their latest little bloody stunt right after this deal was announced?"
Exactly. The zionazis want Syria. They are activating all their options and working
overtime to keep their proxies employed against Syria. If the zionazis cant take Syria, it
means they don't get to have Lebanon either. It also means their attempt to wreck Iran and
reduce it to a failed state is a non starter.
Syria is the keystone. The geography is a primary target for the destruction of ME. It has
cultural and economic ties that bind most of the region. Destroying Syria is primary for US
Hegemony and Israeli dominance.
But Turkey, Iran, Iraq and now Russia stand in the way. With Hezbollah, Lebanon is joined
to the alliance against the US-Israeli aggression. And strategically, Jordan will facilitate
what it can to stabilize the region.
This alienation of Putin and the Russian military and people by Israel, the US, UK and
France will long be remembered across the Motherland. Syria now more than ever is a land of
sacrificed sons of Russia. The stakes are now eternal.
This is exactly the point. People, commentators, should never forget that about half of
Israel's Jewish population are Russians (or used to be, I suspect dual citizens). These
people have extended families in Russia. Putin knows what he is doing. He can not alienate
people at home.
The two preceding comments seem to be mutually exclusive, i .e., in direct contradiction:
1. "This alienation of Putin and the Russian military and people by Israel,"
2. "This is exactly the point. People, commentators, should never forget that about half
of Israel's Jewish population are Russians (or used to be, I suspect dual citizens). These
people have extended families in Russia. Putin knows what he is doing. He can not alienate
people at home."
But, "the point" in (1) seems, actually, to be the exact opposite.
So, has the incident alienated Russians from Israel? Or, can Russia not "afford" to be
alienated from Israel because there are too many Russian Israelis?
Or is it the other way around? That Russian Israelis will not stand for their government's
treatment of Russia? Somehow I suspect that Russian/ex-Soviet Israelis won't give a flying
eff about their govt's treatment of Russia, and the same goes for their relatives inside
Russia. They hated the USSR and couldn't wait to get away. Why does Putin have to cater to
the views of these emigres to Israel, Russian Israelis, or to their families back in Russia?
How do the latter differ from Zionists in the USA who have dual loyaties?
BTW, it is my understanding that the USA paid for the resettlement of Soviet Jews in
Israel in the eighties, not the USSR .
1.3 million Russians in Israel, are Russian jews, and are likely identify primarily as
jewish.
Their aims and concerns, are jewish ones. Their likely only concerns regarding Russia, are
that Russia does not obstruct Israeli ambitions, and that the network of jewish influence in
Russia does not diminish, but thrives. Their interest is for Russia to be another of Israel's
golems, like the USA is.
I moot that true Russian interests, conflict with their own, and they will absolutely
follow their own. Same as AIPAC in the USA, and equivalents everywhere else.
Their ancestral home country might be Russia, but I moot there is nothing Russian about
them.
All my humble opinion. I stand to be corrected. Russia does not have a fifth column in
Israel, it is the other way round.
Look, I'm not a military expert, but I have followed the events in the Middle East fairly
closely for over 30 years. I, and many others, have stated repeatedly that Russia's clearly
demonstrated unwillingness to use its military forces to protect Syria from Western and US
strikes can only lead to disaster.
The entire Russian policy in Syria has been confused and riddled with contradictions from
the very beginning. The situation in 2015 was:
1. The Syrian government was on the verge of losing a war against jihadi forces.
2. Those jihadi forces were largely foreign and were organized, funded and directed by
the
Anglo/zionists.
3. The Russians could not match the conventional forces that could be brought to bear in the
region by the Anglo/zionists.
4. Any Russian intervention could only succeed if the Anglo/zionists were deterred from
intervening directly by the presence of Russian forces and the fear of a wider war (that
could go nuclear).
Now given those four facts, which I presume nobody seriously disagrees with, the Russian
operation in Syria was always based upon maintaining the fear in the minds of the military
planners in Tel Aviv and Washington that any direct interference with Russian forces in Syria
would mean war with Russia. This was the most important single job of the Russian forces in
Syria maintaining the deterrent capability vis-a-vis the Anglo/zionists.
How do you maintain deterrence? You do so by enforcing your red lines EVERY TIME they are
challenged. Russian inability to clearly define their red lines in Syria and to enforce those
red lines each and every time they were tested has led us to a point where the Russians no
longer have any credibility in Syria.
My crystal ball says that within the next 30 days, not only will the US massively strike
the SAA and the Assad government, but that they will impose a no fly zone over all of Syria
to ground the Russian and Syrian air forces. What will the Russians do in response? They will
have a choice between war and defeat Everything they have done to this point, indicates that
they will do whatever they need to do to avoid a direct military confrontation with the
Anglo/zionist forces. Imagine if you were a military planner in Tel Aviv or Washington, how
could you convince anyone that there was any credible threat that Russia would go to war over
Syria?
You couldn't and hence we are now faced with the imminent threat of either an
Anglo/zionist victory in Syria or WW3.
The Anglo-Zionists are losing in Syria. Russia, Syria and Iran are winning. That is why the
ZioNazis are desperate and moving in themselves, now that their proxies have been defeated.
There is no way the ZioNazis can impose a no-fly zone over Syria. If they start shooting at
Russian jets the answer will come in the form of nuclear armed missiles. Israel will be taken
out in a matter of minutes and made uninhabitable as it has no strategic depth. It does not
even take nuclear missiles to achieve the destruction of Israel. If I were Israeli I would
not be best pleased with the insane Netanyahu, but Israel at this point seems quite
psychotic.
The Russian forces have a standing order to defend themselves with the strongest means
available to any attack. Israel managed to create a situation where the fog of war made
things less clear but Israel still attacked Russia directly. It is in Israel's and NATO's
interest to confuse things in Syria to keep Russia from pursuing it's strategies to the end.
It's only Idlib left now, once the remaining Jihadi proxies have been blown out of their
holes (a matter of a few months, much less if Turkey lends a hand) the turn will then come to
the turncoat Kurds in the East and they will be dealt with just like the jihadis were dealt
with.
This is the scenario that is giving Israel and NATO fits, but they cannot stop it without
going to war with Russia. Israel cannot possibly survive such a war, so they want to pull in
NATO to do the dirty work while Israel itself sits it out on the sidelines. It won't work of
course.
I am one of the armchair warriors, but hell I don't know, I could be wrong, and I
sincerely hope that I am.
That said, I do understand the 'wait and see' logic. My only concern with it, is that if
the slow and steady strategy is superior to enforcing red lines, then the problem is that the
enemy is not stupid.They in turn will see that either a greater provocation is needed, else
they need to find a new weak spot to poke.
Zog wants the Russians to fail, and Assad replaced by their puppet, really badly. They are
not going to sit back and think 'dammit, we lost, out-smarted by those pesky Russians.'
Again, I hope to be wrong. But the nasties in ZOG HQ are as devious, nasty, and fanatical
as they come. If plan A fails, plans B, C and D are lined up.
Big picture, the Shia crescent needs Iraq fully on board, and the yanks out. Then Russia
(and Iran) has an uninterrupted air corridor to the theatre, and that doesn't rely on the
ever unreliable Turkey..
Zog sees this too. I'm not aware that anybody really focuses on this, but Iraq is really
the key. The Sunnis won't like it, but ISIS was their gambit, and it failed. If Iraq becomes
free of US control, and joins the Shia Crescent, we will hear Zog's screams all over the
world.
The questions raised: Who really did shoot down this plane? Was it an accident or did France
and/or Israel attack? If France are attacking Russia/Syria what prompted this? What do they
have to gain? Is it possible for Syria to "accidentally" bring down an allied plane? Don't they
have IFFs? Are Russia publicly accepting a false narrative to avoid having to retaliate? Will
Russia retaliate against Israel? They have claimed that right already. What will they expect to
extract as a quid pro quo on this issue? How will the media report this? Will they call
it a "near miss"? That's surely what it was. Do they even understand how close we're coming to
global war, whenever a NATO country operates in Syria? How long can we rely on Russian common
sense to avoid WWIII?
I notice you don't advocate that Russia should have immediately retaliated militarily. All
the things you do advocate (well, most) – quite rationally – would not have shown
any results as yet, so we don't know they haven't been done, do we?
But, to repeat, you don't defeat a man who is trying to lure you into a fight by punching
him in the face. Intelligence is underrated by the non-intelligent. Subtlety is unappreciated
by the crass. The Russian govt's actions tend to be both subtle and intelligent –
whether you approve of them or not, and so can go unappreciated by many on all sides of the
debate.
As to ascendancy – Syria was intended to be a new Libya by now. That this has
been avoided, that the various terrorists are in retreat, that the country remains largely
functional, and all without direct confrontation between east and west (so far), is an
achievement anyone with any intelligence should recognise, and which the Russia government
has every right to be proud of.
Forgive me, but people have been saying variants of "if Putin doesn't DO SOMETHING HUGE
right now he's going to burn" for at least the last four years, and they are still saying it,
despite the fact he hasn't burned (and neither have we), and, if their sage advice had been
followed, we might all be cinders on a dead and cindered planet right now.
The only reason it hasn't come to that yet is that the ground was not prepared fully before.
Russia is slowly being pushed back to the ropes, the average Western citizen is being
conditioned to racially hate Russians (did you read Nikki Haley's comment today that Russians
are culturally conditioned to lie and cheat?) and the consent is being steadily manufactured.
As I said in my original comment, by showing "restraint" and not that he has teeth, Putin is
encouraging his country's enemies. Personally, I don't give a damn about what he does
about people he doesn't like, but he's not a private citizen; he is in control of Russia, for
good or ill. Most of my Russian friends, all of the far left variety, despise him,
incidentally, but that's neither here nor there. The simple fact is that if Russia is to
avoid a big war it has to actively deter one, not act like someone attempting to disarm an
armed drunk by logical words and sweet reason. That is not going to work.
If the Russians got a cruise missile down the funnel of the French frigate Auvegne (assuming
there is a funnel) what do you think NATO would do? Would they shrug and say it serves Macron
right or would they take off the safety locks and blast Russia from every direction in order
to protect their partner who had been so 'wrongly' attacked? Haven't they been waiting for
the chance for years? Aren't they already loaded up expecting the 'chemical weapons' shout to
go up this very week? It would be vey foolish of Russia to take the bait of these
provocations and it makes for uneasy reading when Westerners, sitting comfortably in safety,
complain that Russians aren't prepared to die for us in large enough numbers to keep them
safe. You first guy!
When provoked so blatantly you need to look to see what the guy is hiding behind his back. In
this case the West had built up their forces for a full scale attack on Syria as soon as the
White Helmets released their video of choking children filmed a week or so ago. Putin
disappointed them by coming to an agreement with Turkey that means the jihadis are further
isolated and pushed into possible conflict with radicals.
The time scales of the agreement are vague/unknown but it's unlikely we will see a Jihadi
Caliphate set up under Turkish protection.
Like the Syrians it's the crazy foreign fighters that alarm the Turks, the Chinese
especially of whom there are 6000 heavily armed in the South. Turkey is keen to see the
extremists pushed South making it difficult for them to enter Turkey. Putin's reaction is far
more sensible than firing the gun for a major conflict which Russia is most unlikely to
win.
Russia is still on track to squeeze the jihadis into smaller and smaller areas where they
might be eliminated. It might make liberals happy to see Russia sacrifice herself a la 1941
but it's not going to help anybody except their enemies.
You can't help thinking Putin knows exactly what he's doing.
There can never be a non-nuclear war between the US and Russia. Every strategist worth
anything knows this. It's the belief – created by the PNAC neocons – that this
isn't true that drives the hardcore nuts in Washington and London and elsewhere.
This is the problem. They are delusional and believe they can fight a limited war with
Russia. Those who know they are wrong, and that any such war would go nuclear very very fast
are stuck in a profound dilemma. – How to defend oneself and one's interests while
avoiding the conflict the lunatics want, which will destroy life on earth?
Answers on a post card please for anyone who thinks they can do better than the current
Russian govt is doing.
It's a complex web.. one has to bear this in mind.. the inter-relationships.. the
connections.. Putin for example has to tread the razor edge and fight with one hand tied
behind his back due to the Zionist influence atop the Russian hierarchy .
S-200 uses the SAHR guidance system. The radar signal is fairly wide, and if multiple objects
fall within the signal, the one with the largest cross-section will be targeted. The Russian
IL is much larger than the American F-16. Larger missiles like the 200's 5V21 also tend to
hit from above (they come down in a parabolic arc after the motors burned out). So if the
F-16's stayed a little behind and below the IL they'd basically guarantee the IL get's
killed.
As "Partisangirl" claims, but does not properly understand, Russia integrated Syrian AD
into their network some time ago. The purpose of such a integration was to avoid similar
accidents.
One problem: That was only for the newer stuff.
A Pantsir, for example, can be told where targets are and what to shoot at by a larger
system (they work in a pyramid hierarchy). S-200s are older than h*ll though. It's basically
a dumb system from the 60's. (even dumber than a BUK)
What it'll do is spot a target, fire the missile and then when the missile "thinks" it's in
the right area (the kill box), it's seeker head goes active (it's a semi active seeker). It
starts looking for radar 'reflections' and then homes in on the biggest one it can see. It
doesn't actually know what it's looking at and doesn't care. Just goes for the shiniest thing
it can detect.
My favourite part is how all these lies are held up as if they merit discussion and as if
they deserve to be given equal treatment with what actually happened. It's like holding a
"discussion" as to whether or not Aliens rule the Earth.
I tend to agree with you, on the whole, Mulga, about issues to do with Israel, though perhaps
not so stridently. But on this occasion I think Matt is honestly telling things how he sees
it.
On the other hand, one should ask why Israel is arbitrarily attacking targets in a
sovereign country that is not threatening it. Of course, the answer is that this is what
Israel does with impunity – witness USS Liberty among many others. On this occasion, it
appears, from what I have read, that Israel was targeting the delivery of Iranian S300 copies
to Syria – that is weapons to defend from this kind of attack in future. In reality,
far from attacking Israel, Syria has even done nothing about recovering territory lost to
Israel in 1967, though in international law Israel – that Israel signed up to –
it should be given back to Syria. A few days ago, Israel attacked Damascus airport during an
international fair with many visitors and potential for massive loss of life. It seems clear
that Israel is trying (probably with US approval) to provoke a response.
Putin always keeps his eye on the long term view but it is time for him to put a stop to
this activity if he is to maintain credibility with his allies and his voters. This attack
will serve to weaken Putin's hitherto Israel friendly stance unless he wants to lose support
in Russia. Putin is the best friend Israel has in Russia. It seems that Russian military is
saying that there will be a response – much stronger than Putin.
On the other hand – re my previous comment, Matt, IAF was clearly using the Russian
ELINT plane as cover. It is tantamount to using civilians as human shields. Though the crew
were Russian military, they were not involved in the action, apparently, and Israel had
agreed not to target Russian assets in Syria. One cannot absolve Israel on this and the
Russian military know it. They will be looking to Putin to permit a response.
Then you surely would not object if Russia were to ask Israel to hand over the pilots
involved so they can explain in a Russian military court or a similar setting their actions
and the thinking and expectations that motivated them to hide their jets in the Ilyushin
transport plane's radar shadow.
Yes, there is a large element of theatre at play in this conflict. What many people don't
want to accept is that they have no way of knowing what the entire truth is. All the
information about situations and events comes from partisan organizations with vested
interests. Expecting the side one personally favours to present objective truths is wishful
thinking at best, downright delusional at worst.
The post-truth era means everybody walks around believing they have 'figured out' the
truth, no hard evidence required, but they can't all be right can they?
Not so long ago Netanyahu was pleading with Putin [successfully] not to supply the S300 anti
aircraft system [defensive] to Syria, at the same time Israel was the first country to get a
fleet of F35's [offensive] from the US. Putin defers far to much to the US/Israel, we now see
the results. Incidentally how come Saudi Arabia can buy the S400 system, when they were one
of the instigators of Syrian regime change. Russia's "partners" want Syria destroyed, the
warmonger McCain always said the US should take on Syria and that Russia would 'do nothing',
was he right?
Let's recall the realities here and not succumb to hysteria. One of the reasons these
provocations are happening is that Russia is winning in Syria, militarily and politically.
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Harry has touched on an important point: that Russia and Israel are becoming closer and
closer strategic Russophone partners. Russia was the first country in the world to recognise
W Jerusalem as Israel's capital (before even Trump). There was only one foreign dignitary at
the May 9th Victory Parade their growing economic, military and cultural ties (Customs Union
negotiations and visa free travel for instance) cannot be ignored.
The IDF's 200 strikes in 18 months must lead to serious consideration of tacit Russian
approval because they could be quite quickly stopped without it? But that would escalate the
situation. Where does Iran stand in this, because VVP made quite clear to Netanyahu that Iran
was Russia's principle strategic partner in the region. Is that set to change?
Netanyahu has met VVP what, three times this year, behind closed doors. What was said, and
what agreements were made? It is also reputed that they have a direct one-to-one encrypted
comms network (though I can't confirm it was activated). But that they are in regular contact
is undoubted.
There is a lot more going on beneath the surface than first meets the eye. VVP's relations
with Netanyahu blurs the boundaries and greys the narrative. The fact that VVP is saying it
"looks accidental" doesn't ring true it looks anything other than accidental to me. Was there
a communication breakdown as VVP is in Hungary?
I do not know, and based on what we have been told, neither does anyone else. The FS
Auvergne fired missiles just as the Il-20 HQ went off screen. They weren't firing at the IDF,
I wouldn't be too sure they were "window dressing" for them either. Whatever went on, we are
being kept in the dark. Not precipitating WW3 is a good thing. Other than that, Russia's
foreign policy and ME relations are a 3D chess game that we know little of the motivation
behind: but I can infer that Russia's strategic needs are primary. At what point can that be
labelled imperialist?
Are you expecting to be spoon fed? And by the biased BBC, Guardian, etc!
It's pretty clear that Assad has won with Putin's support. China is on side too as
evidenced by recent military manoeuvres. What is happening now is the US, UK, France, Israel,
Turkey, Saudi just saving face and been allowed the odd small success or two.
However, Israel royally fucked up last night and Netanyahu will lose a plane or three if
he tries it again.
You didn't really read my comment: this "odd small success " has happened 200 times in the
last 18 months with the downing of how many IDF planes 1? Russia providing S-300s, or S-400s,
or upgrading the 1960's SAM 2s would secure Syrian airspace. But these supplies are not
forthcoming. Because Israel will not allow them.
The situation is a lot more complex: and no, I don't want to be spoonfed by the BBC. The
Saker posits a "Zionist 5th Column" in Russia that VVP has to accommodate. You seem to want a
simplistic ZioNATO v Russia narrative, all I am saying it is a lot more nuanced than that.
And I didn't get that from the Graun!
200 IDF strikes in 18 months, that could be stopped by turning on their S-400s, would be an
instance.. Israel has lobbied successfully to prevent Syria from securing its own airspace.
The majority of these attacks are to prevent Assad acquiring what Haaretz terms "lethal
weaponry" a euphemism for Iranian supplied air defences that could secure Syrian airspace. As
could a Russian declared NFZ (though the IDF would just standoff over Lebanon or the Med, and
not penetrate Syrian airspace). Or Russian supplied S-300s.
So my answer is yes and no. The Russophone alliance of Russia and Israel seems to be
ascendant over Syrian sovereignty. Or it was, until Monday. There appears to have been a
breakdown in the de-confliction agreement, or a deliberate misuse and provocation by Israel.
The jury is out on that one for the moment. If the attacks are stopped, I would tend to agree
with you.
There is the small matter of the international silence surrounding the FS Auvergne firing
missiles concurrent with the downing of the Il-20 HQ. These either hit the Il-20 or Latakia.
Has anyone considered the Il-20 WAS the target? That there was no accident, but a deliberate
targeting? Did the IDF or French take out the Russian early warning system and electronic
warfare capability to leave Latakia vulnerable? I don't know, and Rothschild Macron said no!
It is worth considering though, I feel.
Integrated into the systems view of militaristic, imperialistic, and sub-imperialistic,
and extractivist proliferation: it hardly matters who did what when. They are not giving us
an insight into their collective insanity and power games, where the stakes are humanities
very survivability. Russia only seemed to remember on Monday that the serial numbers on the
MH-17 BUK, means it was made in 1986. What else have they forgotten? What else do they not
know?
Humanity has no strategic allies within the global neoliberal ruling class. Arming the
world is a "pro-conflict policy", wouldn't you agree? Where militaristic proliferation can't
facilitate peace: the only possible de-confliction becomes system change? There are good and
bad actors within the current globally hegemonic cultural system: VVP is possibly the best,
so it would be unfair to heap the woes of an essentially evil system upon him especially in
isolation. So it must fall to those outside the transnational globally integrated system to
call out where this insanity will lead. That's you and me?
What I am suggesting is rather than the inevitably favourable comparison of VVP, and well,
just about anyone else let's look at the bigger picture. International World Capitalism, as
Guattari termed it, has faced us with the choice of three suicides. Without a radical
transformation of the oppressed consciousness (a la Guattari, Deleuze, Freire, Bookchin,
Naess, but better still the secular Buddha) there will soon enough come the day that does not
dawn Monday night was a foreshadowing of that very day?
The idea a head of state can function as a moral paragon is naive of course. Putin pursues
Russia's interests, not world peace and brotherhood. But at the same time we can't ignore the
fact he does so while adhering to the requirements of international law far more than the
west does. In that sense, he has some claim to respect from those who value ethical conduct.
Whatever his motives may be this fact deserves to be stated and made clear.
"Israel is unlikely to freely use Syrian airspace in the wake of the crash of a Russian
Il-20 military aircraft over the Mediterranean Sea, Yakov Kedmi, a former high-ranking
Israeli intelligence official, told Sputnik.
"There was an agreement between Israel and Russia that the actions of Israel in Syria's
airspace would not endanger lives of Russian troops. Israel breached this commitment What
happens next will depend on the position of Israel. Most likely, Israel will no longer be
able to enjoy the same freedom in the sky of Syria as it did before the incident," Kedmi
said.
"Israel's attack in itself, regardless of the consequences, was an irresponsible step,
because there is not a single facility on the territory of Syria that might have been used by
Iran and whose destruction would have justified an attack on it, which could endanger the
Russian troops," Kedmi said."
The US must be the worst nation on the face of the Earth. Everywhere it goes, death and
destruction follow. To top it all off, the blatant hypocrisy is too much to handle. America
is treacherous and duplicitous in the extreme. It has supported terrorists of all stripes in
the Middle East and elsewhere for its own selfish geopolitical reasons. It is an entity not
to be trusted, ever!
Regarding (the long tradition of ) British-French-Israeli collusion
"Not only Russian and (allegedly) Israeli and French aircraft and missiles were in the
air. Civilian radar also tracked British Royal Air Force aircraft, which, unusually, had
switched on their transponders and gone into holding patterns – most likely to avoid
being somehow involved in the exchange of fire over Latakia." (source: Haaretz)
we should remember Sykes-Picot and "Operation Revised" (the 1956 Suez-deception)
"The documentary evidence does not leave any room for doubt that at Sèvres, during
the three days in late October 1956, an elaborate war plot was hatched against Egypt by the
representatives of France, Britain and Israel. The Protocol of Sèvres is the most
conclusive piece of evidence for it lays out in precise detail and with a precise time-table
how the joint war against Egypt was intended to proceed and shows foreknowledge of each
other's intentions .
The central aim of the plot was the overthrow of Gamal Abdel Nasser. This aim is not
explicitly stated in the protocol but it emerges clearly and unambiguously from all the
records of the discussions surrounding it. Yet each of the three partners had a very
different perspective on this war plot, and it was not at all clear how even the agreed aim
was to be achieved.
The French were the most straight-forward, unwavering and unabashed advocates of military
force. As far as they were concerned, Colonel Nasser supported the Algerian rebels and that,
along with his nationalization of the Suez Canal Company, was enough to justify a war to
overthrow him. For their part, the French did not need any further pretext for taking
military action. It was the British, unwilling to incur Arab hostility by appearing as ally
of Israel, who needed a pretext and Israel was able and willing to provide it but only at a
price. Israel also required the elimination of Nasser's air force, for which task Britain
alone had the heavy bomber bases sufficiently near at hand."
I was also struck by the Haaretz report that "Something strange was definitely in the air
over Syria on Monday night with British and French forces reportedly present." I hope this
open thread may bring more information on this alleged NATO involvement. I am beginning to
think this incident may have rather more actors than we've been told. Loading...
Yes – agreed. FUKUS ships have moved closer to the Syrian coast in the last few days,
presumably in anticipation of an attack (chemical or otherwise) that they could justify a
response to. The Russians have been doing a great job in the (non-Western) media of
predicting potential chemical fake attacks and thereby defusing them. The one minute warning
from Israel suggests the possibility (no more than that) that the Israelis saw the ELINT
plane approaching the airfield and quickly decided to use it as cover for whatever reason.
As I've said in other posts, the Israelis have narrowed Putin's options. Of FUKUS +I they
are the easiest to pick off.
A very different and is some ways attractive theory is presented here:
I am not totally convinced – Matt's view on the capability of the Syrian SAMs seems
more convincing and it is not clear that Russian fighters could have scrambled in time,
especially as the Israelis had agreed not to target Russian assets, but if true it perhaps is
a clever – nay Machiavellian – way of opening up options for Putin vis-a-vis his
Israeli/Russian Jewish oligarchs and hanging the Israelis out to dry.
Is there any information about whether the Auvergne did or didn't fire missiles? The Syrians
(and Russians?) said they had witnessed the firing of missiles which seemed to be aimed at
the same government buildings as that being attacked by Israel which suggests collusion.
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The US and NATO's compliant poodles are clearly willing to risk WWIII as they think Russia
will simply back down when they instigate open warfare and regime change in Syria. My own
belief is that poor honest broker Russia has been left to decide the fate of world peace.
Personally, for all our futures, I believe Russia must declare a no fly zone over Syria
– anyone entering to bomb will be at mercy of S400. Otherwise this will continue and if
the US gets Syria it will be Iran next and WWIII – that is, armageddon.
The entire of the West has now become simply a huge collective criminal enterprise operating
completely outside the bounds of international law and threatening to bring about armageddon
in the process. Of course one would never know this by reading or watching Western media
where our clueless psychopathic leaders are portrayed as gallantly fighting for "human
rights" and "democracy" through "regime change" and endless slaughter.
BTL SyrPer Auslander on September 18, 2018 · at 7:54 am EST/EDT
Israeli plane apparently passed just in front of the plane, SAA got a lock, Israeli
doglegged left, missile lost lock and chose the biggest target ..our plane. Israel violated
protocol, called one minute before the attack, not enough time for our bird to get out of the
way. The french frigate was window dressing.
Here are a couple of quotes that show how far the system has been rigged/corrupted:
"one of the things we need to do is give young Jewish people the confidence to be proud of
their identity – as British, Jewish and Zionist too .. There is no contradiction
between these identities and we must never let anyone try to suggest that there should be
..
"You can also count on my commitment to Israel's security .. I am clear that we will always
support Israel's right to defend itself."
– UK Prime Minister Theresa May, at the United Jewish Israel Appeal
"I've never seen a President -- I don't care who he is -- stand up to them (Israel). It
just boggles the mind. They always get what they want. The Israelis know what is going on all
the time. I got to the point where I wasn't writing anything down. If the American people
understood what a grip these people have got on our government, they would rise up in arms.
Our citizens certainly don't have any idea what goes on."
– U.S. Navy Admiral and former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Thomas Moorer
The significance of direct military involvement by Israel and France is that the facade of a
"civil war" (albeit by proxy) can no longer be maintained. The only thing that prevents it
from being a regular war between nations is the omission of a declaration.
Is it possible for Syria to "accidentally" bring down an allied plane? Don't they have
IFFs?
Yup, and kinda. It's perfectly possible to do it and IFF doesn't really work the way a lot
of people think. (IFF transponder beacon works by transmitting a signal to the ground station
or launcher).
If the ground station recognises the beacon it labels the aircraft as friendly and either
denies launch permission or warns the operator beforehand.
However with a system like the S-200 that will not actually matter. The SA-5 (S-200) is an
old system from the 60's which uses a semi active radar homing missile and how it works is
quite simple.
When the ground system detects a target it illuminates the target with it's radar like a
torch and launches the missile.
The missile then follows the radar reflection from the target until it gets close enough
to detonate, goes bang, shoots plane down.
However the beam from the radar 'torch' can be quite wide (miles wide), F-16's are quite
small, IL-20's quite big.. and the missile itself is pretty dumb.
As such by hiding in behind the larger aircraft the smaller aircraft can almost guarantee
an incoming missile will prioritise the large aircraft reflection and kill that instead. It
doesn't actually matter if the missile was launched against the smaller target in the first
instance or if IFF came into play. The missile itself is too dumb to care. It just goes for
the largest thing it can see.
Thanks for clearing that up: but it raises the question that the Il-20 was on a pre-planned
flight path known in advance to both Russian and Syrian air traffic control (whom I believe
are sitting next to each other?) Knowing what you have just posted (which I do not doubt) it
can hardly be termed "accidental"?
I suspect the FS Auvergne fired its Aster missiles, but I'm not expecting a clarification
of that. The situation is greyed by the burgeoning Russian-Israeli Russophone alliance. A
simple narrative will not be forthcoming, I suspect.
The IL-20's been on station flying figure 8's on constant rotation for months so it's flight
and landing path would be known to everyone with half assed radar or even functional
eyeballs.
Putin can't afford to get it wrong – for everybody's sake. His power is limited. He has
done an excellent job in defeating the West in Syria but how could he react to missiles from
the French frigate without triggering a massive NATO attack not just on Syria but Russia? In
the current climate and the West's readiness it could happen in hours. He has always
emphasised he puts Russian interests first – and those included eliminating thousands
of Russian Jihadis before they returned home to create mayhem. He has never said he'll take
on the World. So the French missiles were a mirage and the plane an accident? Well that's
better than an even bigger war maybe?
If the French and Israeli's attacked at the same time then they must have liased with each
other. Or conspired is another way of putting it. Shades of 1956? But nowadays there wouldn't
be the slightest outrage at such a collusion; it's oar for the course. And where is the
missing partner, the UK? "No longer up to it" the French would say. "Too busy" say the Brits.
NB which bit of Syria are the French after this time? Or do they see it descending into the
chaos of a Libya, their last successful destabilisation.
Note Russian and IDF planes in direct line from s-200 being fired ..with French frigate
..looks like deliberate coordination to provide cover for each .but if frigate attacked then
IDF planes available to directly attack Bashir in Damascus .and frigate to provide a source
of provocation for excuse for Nato forces to launch their massive attack they desparately
wish to do .especially as Putin agreed no military attack in Idlib ..and Russian MoD
presentation yesterday it was a Ukraine BUK .in fact it is tempting to say Nato did this to
get back at Russian MoD and punish them for this and expose in any way Russia's belief in
trust and agreements and hotlines as a laughing stock ..and they have succeeded .a Russian
plane shot down by an outdated Russian missile launched by Syria and Russia failing to supply
s-300 but Turkey and everyone else can have s-400 which might ? have not ended up like
this.
And did not Russia promise to deal with the "launch source" of any more missiles against
Syria since the previous lot? Surely their are Russians in Latakia
The elephant in the room is Iran .no responses from them yet even though Israel uses excuses
to say it is defending itself from them and continues to attack what tjey call Iranian assets
or anything they might vaguely claim have any connections to Iran ..does Iran follow Putins
example to keep calm and carry on .thinking their"partnership" is being put to the test as of
course it is in order to provoke it to invite a response by usa and associates .does it say
to Putin enough is enough we are going to do our thing as you have said Russia is only in
Syria to protect its own interests so cannot we do the same ..what options covert or overt
does Iran have one wonders ..
One question you didn't ask is whether this act, which appears to be an Israeli provocation
assisted by the French, is related to the Sochi talks/agreement? Seems that supporters of the
Syrian Opposition, of which France is right behind Turkey, might not like the agreement,
partly because it stalls the plans for a "Syrian gas attack" by removing the pretext.
However I think the wider question is why and how has France been involved in this, described
on SBS as "Israeli and French forces conducting aerial attacks on Syrian State assets"?
Israel is a law unto itself, but France's intervention without any pretext whatsoever is a
blatant war crime and escalation. The whole thing looks like a provocation, and one wonders
when Russia will break. If Putin was unhappy having to make a peace agreement with the psycho
Erdogan, he will be more unhappy now.
If Russia was 'obliged' to retaliate to Israeli or French attacks its inherent weaknesses
would be exposed. It remains a relatively poor country and Putin must be well aware it can't
take on the US, Israel, the KSA and the other Gulf Emirs as well as France and the UK. It's
done a fantastic job saving Syria but it can't take on The Rest of the World. If it has
accepted Syrian missile defences brought it down that may well be the way out of a bigger war
– this time.
I agree, Paul X. These are not only perilous waters, but untested to boot. In fact not one of
the military powers you cite has had its strength tested against a non third world adversary.
I know there are infantile tendencies crying "bring it on!" – as though speaking of a
long awaited prize fight involving their heavyweight boxer of choice – but saner voices
can only express alarm and profound dismay at what Western rulers seem bent on dragging us
into. I say enough of this macho nonsense about who would prevail. I do take some comfort in
the possibility –
https://www.unz.com/tsaker/book-review-losing-military-supremacy-the-myopia-of-american-strategic-planning-by-andrei-martyanov/-
that US military power is overstated, but it is comfort of the bleakest possible kind.
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The point is this, Russia can take on the whole World if it had to, but it would be a pyrrhic
victory, because to do so would require nuclear weapons which no nation could survive.
However, Russia has many allies, the largest of which is China, so it probably would only be
taking on one major opponent, the US and a few of its erstwhile allies (France, Britain
etc.), not by any stretch of the imagination, the whole World!
China is even weaker than Russia and not long ago said it was 10 years behind the US in
military terms and it's hard to see they'd welcome a bit of sacrifice to pull Putin's
chestnuts out of the fire. That Alliance is for the future. Right now a full blooded NATO
response would be quite enough. Many in America would be delighted if Russia used a nuke;
total annihaltion of Russia would follow, something they've been dying to do for 75 years.
And of course they might go for the First Strike.
I have to agree up to a point that this attack was a "full test of the EW capabilties of the
western & Israel armies". This was not just an Israeli attack. Israel just supplied four
attack jets. The French were (as Russia observed) firing missiles. British aircraft were high
overhead providing surveillance and attack data. U.S. surveillance aircraft similar to the
IL-20 are more or less full-time orbiting off the Lebanon/Syria coasts gathering data,
probing electronic systems and providing aerial data link relays for the planes and ships
below. We should all stop calling this an "Israeli attack". It was basically a NATO
attack on Syria.
It's evident that the Russian and Syrian forces were not prepared for
such a combined attack as this.
NATO "won" overwhelmingly.
And this was just a "warmup" for
the next, bigger attack to come. Russia must up it's game drastically or it's going to face a
crushing defeat in the next attack.
"Israeli military delegation led by air force commander to travel to Moscow to share
information on Il-20 plane crash.
The Israeli military delegation led by Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin will
travel to Moscow on September 20 with information about the crash of a Russian Il-20
reconnaissance aircraft off the Syrian coast that killed 15 military personnel, the IDF press
service said Wednesday."
Will be interesting to see how or maybe if it correlates with Russian intelligence?
The entire Russian policy in Syria has been confused and riddled with contradictions from
the very beginning. The situation in 2015 was:
1. The Syrian government was on the verge of losing a war against jihadi forces.
2. Those jihadi forces were largely foreign and were organized, funded and directed by the
Anglo/zionists.
3. The Russians could not match the conventional forces that could be brought to bear in the
region by
the Anglo/zionists.
4. Any Russian intervention could only succeed if the Anglo/zionists were deterred from
intervening
directly by the presence of Russian forces and the fear of a wider war (that could go
nuclear).
Now given those four facts, which I presume nobody seriously disagrees with, the Russian
operation in Syria was always based upon maintaining the fear in the minds of the military
planners in Tel Aviv and Washington that any direct interference with Russian forces in Syria
would mean war with Russia. This was the most important single job of the Russian forces in
Syria maintaining the deterrent capability vis-a-vis the Anglo/zionists.
How do you maintain deterrence? You do so by enforcing your red lines EVERY TIME they are
challenged. Russian inability to clearly define their red lines in Syria and to enforce those
red lines each and every time they were tested has led us to a point where the Russians no
longer have any credibility in Syria.
My crystal ball says that within the next 30 days, not only will the US massively strike the
SAA and the Assad government, but that they will impose a no fly zone over all of Syria to
ground the Russian and Syrian air forces. What will the Russians do in response? They will have
a choice between war and defeat Everything they have done to this point, indicates that they
will do whatever they need to do to avoid a direct military confrontation with the
Anglo/zionist forces. Imagine if you were a military planner in Tel Aviv or Washington, how
could you convince anyone that there was any credible threat that Russia would go to war over
Syria? You couldn't and hence we are now faced with the imminent threat of either an
Anglo/zionist victory in Syria or WW3.
Reply
The Anglo-Zionists are losing in Syria. Russia, Syria and Iran are winning. That is why the
ZioNazis are desperate and moving in themselves, now that their proxies have been defeated.
There is no way the ZioNazis can impose a no-fly zone over Syria. If they start shooting at
Russian jets the answer will come in the form of nuclear armed missiles. Israel will be taken
out in a matter of minutes and made uninhabitable as it has no strategic depth. It does not
even take nuclear missiles to achieve the destruction of Israel. If I were Israeli I would
not be best pleased with the insane Netanyahu, but Israel at this point seems quite
psychotic.
The Russian forces have a standing order to defend themselves with the strongest means
available to any attack. Israel managed to create a situation where the fog of war made
things less clear but Israel still attacked Russia directly. It is in Israel's and NATO's
interest to confuse things in Syria to keep Russia from pursuing it's strategies to the end.
It's only Idlib left now, once the remaining Jihadi proxies have been blown out of their
holes (a matter of a few months, much less if Turkey lends a hand) the turn will then come to
the turncoat Kurds in the East and they will be dealt with just like the jihadis were dealt
with.
This is the scenario that is giving Israel and NATO fits, but they cannot stop it without
going to war with Russia. Israel cannot possibly survive such a war, so they want to pull in
NATO to do the dirty work while Israel itself sits it out on the sidelines. It won't work of
course.
I am one of the armchair warriors, but hell I don't know, I could be wrong, and I
sincerely hope that I am.
That said, I do understand the 'wait and see' logic. My only concern with it, is that if
the slow and steady strategy is superior to enforcing red lines, then the problem is that the
enemy is not stupid.They in turn will see that either a greater provocation is needed, else
they need to find a new weak spot to poke.
Zog wants the Russians to fail, and Assad replaced by their puppet, really badly. They are
not going to sit back and think 'dammit, we lost, out-smarted by those pesky Russians.'
Again, I hope to be wrong. But the nasties in ZOG HQ are as devious, nasty, and fanatical
as they come. If plan A fails, plans B, C and D are lined up.
Big picture, the Shia crescent needs Iraq fully on board, and the yanks out. Then Russia
(and Iran) has an uninterrupted air corridor to the theatre, and that doesn't rely on the
ever unreliable Turkey..
Zog sees this too. I'm not aware that anybody really focuses on this, but Iraq is really
the key. The Sunnis won't like it, but ISIS was their gambit, and it failed. If Iraq becomes
free of US control, and joins the Shia Crescent, we will hear Zog's screams all over the
world.
Which is why the provocations won't stop. Honestly, I don't see how Putin can think he can
shrug them off and continue with the job at hand in Syria. He will try but Zion will continue
to double-down.
I believe the West has seen enough of their schemes foiled by Putin and his playing the
long game. The strategy now is to take the long game from him. The advantage in this goes to
the West as they can be as provocative as they want while Russia has to be careful not to be
seen as an aggressor lest it wreck Nord Stream, Turk Stream and the thaw in relations with
Germany.
Putin has sounded conciliatory, maybe even weak in some eyes. He did, however, note that
Russia's attitude towards this incident is expressed in the MoD statement, which is
noticeably less conciliatory.
Perhaps that, along with some concrete actions (I favor a limited no-fly zone), will deter
outside interference while the essential work at Idlib can continue. We can only hope.
May I remind you Saker that this incident was not just a provocation. It is a promise or
threat being honored. For months we have we have been hearing high ranking American officials
openly advocating that their goal in Syria was to make as many as possible Russian military
return home in body bags. From Senators to directors of intelligence have unabashedly and
unapologetically said so openly on American TVs. And they are doing it whenever possible.
So the question for Mr. Putin is whether he's gonna let them continue with impunity. I don't
know how old most commentators on this site are, but for those who remember the denouement of
the Vietnam war you will remember that the only war the US ever lost was when the American
people had enough of hundreds of their soldiers returning home every week in body bags.
remember the Tu 20 was used a RADAR shield for the 4 Israeli F-16. These are obviously
aircraft and operate from an Israeli military base.The Russians know the geographical
coordinates of these bases to the accuracy of a few meters. The Russian SSBM can stay in the
Black Sea and the Caspian Sea Flotilla can repeat their Deir ez Zoor feat again testing the
Iron Dome an Davids Sling in the process.
This potential threat will cause the Israeli military planers some sleepless nights.
I have read that the fire works capabilities of Hezbollah have somewhat improved in recent
years. The possible components of a "no fly zone" over Israel and western Syria. Not that it
will happen but making the protection racket in Washington foam at their Snouts is worth
something too. IMHO
Lets not forget China has people (Special Forces, Logistics people, medics etc) on the ground
in Syria. Some brigades of the special forces are embedded with the Syrian Arab Armies Tiger
Division and 4th Armored Division. The spearheads of most campaigns.
China has major plans foe the Levant, as far as connectivity with the OBR Silk Roads. They
already have plans to rebuild Syria.
With cheap Chinese weapons, and a large volume of such, the Arabs, Assyrians of Syria will
achieve their ultimate victory. The same applies to Iraq, where the U.S. , British and French
position looks more and more precarious.
By 2030, the U.S., Britain and France will have been expelled from the MENA/Central Asian
regions, only to have China fill the vacuum. Russia or not, China is coming, its rising
fast.
I agree with you 100% that there is no hope for the Western globalist elite. That's because
they're incompetent, psychopathic, loser scum who are only a few bricks short of a load and
their ponzi scam is only a few moves from mate.
I wouldn't say that at all. They are still in positions of power with enormous economic and
military sources. They are in decline but not that far down the road. Russia won't act
strongly because the US/NATO/Israel/Saudi alliance is waaaaay more powerful and still very
united in the Imperial project. Only a very tight China-Russia-Iran alliance would cause the
Empire to hesitate to play their current game of continual micro-aggressions against
Russia/Syria/Iran. Putin will not respond because he does not have as close an alliance with
the Chinese as the US has with their "allies (vassals)." Washington can no longer dictate
terms in world affairs but is more influential than Russia/China/Iran and any other minor
players.
Kfeto
You need to do your homework before posting comments. Erdogan had nothing to do with with the
shooting of that Russian SU-24. This was done behind his back, with pro-US elements in Turkey
hoping to create a rift between Russia and Turkey. It was a provocation. The pilot of that
Turkish F-16 was a Turk of Albanian origin, who was subsequently placed under arrest. When
the US instigated that coup d'etat against Erdogan, it was the Russians who both warned him
and saved his life, as his plane was targeted by Turkish F-16's flown by conspirators, who
backed off, having Russian Sukhois behind them and Russian missiles in Syria pointing at
them.
The shooting of that Russian reconnaissance plane in Syria was another provocation, Israel
hoping to provoke Putin to retaliate and starting a mass war in Syria, bearing in mind that
NATO brought additional ships to the Syrian coast. It did not work, as Putin stayed cool.
However, Russian and Syrian AA missile systems have now become integrated. When it comes to
this latest provocation, it could have been greater than it appeared. Commentators have
pointed to that French frigate firing a missile. What kind of missile was that ? An AA
missile, or a cruise missile ? Did the French shoot that Russian plane down ? If so, then we
were facing a very real threat of wider war, because had the Russians retaliated, then NATO
would have had an excuse to attack Syria, now that it's little false flag plan has been
exposed, another chemical "attack" by Assad, as if Assad was foolish enough to do such a
thing.
The point is that Putin does not fall for provocations. He has proved it again.
I concur. Israel is a rogue state, and this was a provocation.
A firm response is required. The world is watching. Anything short of a firm response
would negate Vostok 2018.
Does Putin stand with, and behind his own Minister of Defense, who layed the blame firmly
on Israel.
Russia needs to secure Syrian and Lebanese airspace to Israeli provocations. AS a starting
point. And Russia should make a lot of noise at the U.N., giving them a headache there, as
well as points against the U.S..
Israeli arrogance should not be let go by superpower Russia.
amarynth
You are correct. I am wondering what really happened. Officially that Russian plane was
mistakenly shot down by Syrians, who were targeting Israeli F-16's that were hiding behind
the Russian plane. Both the Syrian radar operators and their Russian advisors must have known
about that Russian reconnaissance plane, making such a mistake improbable, but not
impossible. Then we have reports of that French frigate firing a missile. What kind of
missile was that ? An AA missile, or a cruise missile ? No additional data has been provided.
I wonder why.
NATO ships are still off the Syrian coast. Why ? For what purpose ? Just keeping them at
sea must cost millions of dollars. Are they waiting for something ?
That false flag chemical
"attack" which the US planned, hoping to frame Assad, has been exposed. Putin and Erdogan
make a deal on Idlib. After that we have that Israeli attack, with the French giving a
helping hand. Was NATO provoking Putin to make a retaliatory attack, either against Israel or
against that French frigate ? Time will tell. However, as The Saker has stated, Russians have
patience.
Patience is not always a virtue. Stalin paid dearly for his patience with Hitler even though
his plans for Lebensraum and expansion eastward were not hidden. Careful Mr. Putin that you
not pay dearly for your patience with the American Empire when it's plan "Project for a New
American Century" has been clearly spelled out.
Yes Saker as you say let's wait and see what the Russian response will be.
Over the years – this always is the knee jerk reaction of the armchair warriors and
anti-Putin/Russia trolls – whenever Russia is attacked in Syria or elsewhere. Some
still don't learn that Russia is slow to saddle and quick to ride. The MOD statements have
already set down who is to blame and a reply to this disgusting provocation will be answered
in their own way and in their own time. Putin also agreed with the MOD statements and hinted
himself to watch this space.
"Also, speaking of Syria: has anybody noticed that the agreement between Turkey and
Russia has removed any justification for a US attack on Syria and that the Israelis have
organized their latest little bloody stunt right after this deal was announced?"
This was a very important point, I also noted. I also read that the II-20 plane was
returning from reconnaissance over Idlib and was just coming into land .take from that what
you will ..
"... Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, that Moscow holds Israel wholly to blame for the shooting down of a Russian military plane near Syria. ..."
"... The Russian Defense Ministry said a recovery operation in the Mediterranean Sea is underway and that it has already located the wreckage in the sea and has retrieved some bodies and some fragments of the plane. ..."
"... "At the same time Russian air control radar systems detected rocket launches from the French frigate Auvergne which was located in that region." ..."
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Israel was not responsible for the downing of a Russian military aircraft
during a
strike on Syria Monday night. "It looks like a chain of tragic circumstances, because the Israeli plane didn't shoot down
our jet," he said.
Putin's comments were a shift in tone after Russia accused Israel earlier of a "hostile provocation" in striking the Syrian
port city of Latakia, which led to the downing of a Russian military plane with 15 servicemen on board.
When asked about comparisons to Turkey's
downing of a Russian aircraft in 2015, Putin said: "This is a different situation. The Turkish fighter jet knowingly downed
our plane."
The Russian president noted that the Defense Ministry's statement, vowing a retaliatory response, was "fully coordinated" with
him. "The retaliatory measures will be directed above all to boosting the security of military men and installations in Syria,"
he said. "These will be measures everyone will see."
Infographic of Monday night's alleged attack and incident Russian Defense Ministry
In the call with Putin, Netanyahu stressed the importance of continuing the security coordination with Russia, which he said
has saved many lives on both sides over the past three years. He offered to send Russia all necessary details in order to investigate
the incident, including dispatching the Israel Air Force chief to Moscow.
Shortly later, the Kremlin said Putin told Netanyahu that agreements reached between Russia and Israel regarding the prevention
of dangerous incidents "were not observed." The statement added that Putin asked Netanyahu to avoid such situations in the future.
The Kremlin's statement came after Russia's Foreign Ministry said Moscow told Israel it will take all necessary measures to
protect its military personnel in Syria.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also responded to the downing of the aircraft, expressing sorrow for the deaths of Russian
aircrew members. Pompeo said that the incident "reminds us of the need to find permanent, peaceful and political resolutions to
the many overlapping conflicts in the region." He added that the incident brings to light "the danger of tragic miscalculations
in Syria's crowded theater of operations."
Pompeo did not mention Israel in his statement, but he did say that the downing of the aircraft "underlines the urgent need
to resolve the Syrian conflict and to end Iran's provocative transit of dangerous weapon systems through Syria, which are a threat
to the region."
'Irresponsible actions'
Earlier on Tuesday, Russia's Defense Ministry accused Israeli military planes of creating a "dangerous" situation in Latakia,
near where the aircraft was downed by Syrian air defense systems, as it claimed Israel warned Moscow about the planned operation
one minute beforehand, adding that it was not enough time to get the the plane to safety.
The Defense Ministry said 15 Russian military service people died because of Israel's "irresponsible actions," adding that
it reserves the right to take appropriate measures after Israel's hostile actions.
According to the ministry, the Israeli F-16 jets carrying out the airstrikes used the Russian plane as a cover to allow them
to approach their targets on the ground without being hit by Syrian anti-aircraft fire.
"Hiding behind the Russian aircraft, the Israeli pilots put it in the line of fire of Syrian anti-aircraft systems. As a result
the Il-20 ... was shot down by the (Syrian) S-200 missile system," Konashenkov said.
He said the Israeli pilots "could not have failed to see the Russian aircraft, as it was coming in to land from a height of
5 km (three miles). Nevertheless, they deliberately carried out this provocation," Konashenkov said.
Israeli army spokesperson Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis said in a statement that Israel "expresses sorrow for the death of the aircrew
members of the Russian plane that was downed tonight due to Syrian anti-aircraft fire," adding that Israel holds the Assad regime
fully responsible for the incident.
"Israel also holds Iran and the Hezbollah terror organization" for the event, said the statement. "Overnight, Israel Defense
Forces fighter jets targeted a facility from which systems to manufacture accurate and lethal weapons were about to be transferred
on behalf of Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon."
Manelis said Israel and Russia have a deconfliction system that has proven itself effective many times in recent years, and
that "this system was in use tonight as well."
An initial inquiry by IDF top brass and the prime minister's bureau, Manelis said, showed that extensive and inaccurate anti-aircraft
fire by Syrian forces downed the Il-20.
"When the Syrian Army launched the missiles that hit the Russian plane, IAF jets were already within Israeli airspace," said
the statement, adding the Ilyushin was not present in the area of the operation during the Israeli airstrike.
It also said Syrian anti-aircraft batteries fired indiscriminately, "and from what we understand, did not bother to ensure
that no Russian planes were in the air."
The statement concluded by saying Israel will share all the relevant information with the Russian government as to confirm
the facts of the inquiry. An Israeli political official later echoed these comments as well, adding that Putin and Netanyahu are
expected to speak soon.
Israeli Ambassador to Russia Gary Koren was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry following the incident, according to Russian
media, though the Israeli Foreign Ministry declined to comment.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, that Moscow
holds Israel wholly to blame for the shooting down of a Russian military plane near Syria.
The Kremlin was extremely concerned by the incident and Putin expressed his condolences for those who were killed, Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
The Russian Defense Ministry said a recovery operation in the Mediterranean Sea is underway and that it has already located
the wreckage in the sea and has retrieved some bodies and some fragments of the plane.
A U.S. official earlier said Washington believed the aircraft, which is an Il-20 turbo-prop plane used for electronic reconnaissance,
was inadvertently shot down by anti-aircraft artillery operated by Moscow's ally, the Syrian government.
Around the time the plane disappeared, the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, near a Russian airbase to which the Il-20 was returning,
came under attack from "enemy missiles" and missile defence batteries responded, Syrian state media reported.
The defense ministry in Moscow said the aircraft was returning to the Russian-run Hmeymim airbase in Latakia province when,
at about 11 P.M. Moscow time (20:00 GMT), it disappeared from radar screens.
The plane was over the Mediterranean Sea about 35 km (20 miles) from the Syrian coastline, Russia's TASS news agency quoted
the ministry as saying in a statement.
"The trace of the Il-20 on flight control radars disappeared during an attack by four Israeli F-16 jets on Syrian facilities
in Latakia province," the statement was quoted as saying.
"At the same time Russian air control radar systems detected rocket launches from the French frigate Auvergne which was
located in that region."
The fate of the 14 people on board the missing plane is unknown, and a rescue operation has been organized out of the Hmeymim
base, the ministry said.
The Israeli military had no reaction, saying it does not comment on "foreign reports." French military spokesman Colonel Patrik
Steiger told Reuters. "We deny any involvement."
A series of unusual airstrikes on Syria were
attributed to Israel on Monday night. The official SANA news agency reported that ten people were injured in the attack, eight
of whom were shortly discharged after being admitted to a nearby hospital.
According to Syrian media, missiles were fired toward military targets close to three large cities in the north of Syria: Lattakia,
Homs and Hama.
According to several sources of "Izvestia" familiar with the situation, despite the bad
weather, on that day (thunderstorm, clouds, light rain, air temperature was 21 degrees) Israeli
fighters had to visually observe the Il-20. At that time, the visibility was about 6 thousand
meters, and the plane came to land with the lights on.
-- It is preliminary possible to say that the Israeli air force attacked a group on a single
target, -- said the former commander of the 4th air army, air force and air defense
Lieutenant-General Valery Gorbenko. - Went in a dense system at a distance of about 30-100 m
from each other. Apparently, they approached the Il-20 at a distance of about 300-400 m and
lined up in almost one line with respect to the shooting C-200. After the launches, the
fighters performed an anti-missile maneuver with maximum overloads. The missile lost its target
and re-aimed at our plane.
-- Group F-16 flew as close to the Russian aircraft, -- said the expert. - On the radar of
air defense systems, all aircraft merged into one major goal. When the Syrian S-200 opened
fire, the fighters received a warning about the missile attack and crumbled, and on the line of
fire there was only less maneuverable and more noticeable Il-20.
The Russian Navy started search and rescue operation
As told "Izvestia" several informed sources in the Russian military Department, the first to
the crash site Il-20 arrived boat "Raptor" with combat swimmers PDSS. These forces are part of
the naval base in Tartus and are engaged in its protection against possible sabotage and
terrorist acts. Earlier, the soldiers of the PDSS and the crews of the Raptors were also the
first to find the wreckage of the su-30CM Syrian aerospace forces, which crashed in may this
year.
All of the facts have yet to be known but the Russian Defense Ministry has little doubt: the
Israelis created the conditions by which Syrian air defenses took down a Russian Il-20
electronic intelligence aircraft in the midst of an Israeli air strike on a Syrian Arab Army
facility in Latakia between 10 PM and 11 PM local time Monday night.
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told reporters, this morning, that four Israeli F-16's
used the Il-20 as cover to protect themselves from Syrian air defenses. "By using the Russian
plane as a cover the Israeli air pilots made it vulnerable to Syrian air defense fire. As a
result, the Ilyushin-20, its reflective surface being far greater than that of F-16, was downed
by a missile launched with the S-200 system," Konashenkov said. The Israeli planes deliberately
created a dangerous situation for surface ships and aircraft in that area, he stated. "The
bombing raid was near the French frigate The Auvergne and in close proximity to the Ilyushin-20
plane of Russia's Aerospace Force that was about to land," Konashenkov said. The Russians had
initially said that they had
detected missiles fired from the Auvergne, but by daybreak had stopped saying that, and the
French have denied involvement.
After Konashenkov's press briefing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu issued a very
strong statement vowing a Russian response. "We have informed today our Israeli colleagues, and
I have also informed personally the Israeli Defense Minister [Avigdor Lieberman], that such
actions will not be left unanswered by us," Shoigu said . "Our reconnaissance airplane Il-20 with 15 crew
members on board" which had been collecting intelligence on jihadi drone operations in Idlib,
"was in the strike zone, strictly speaking between Israel's aircraft - four F-16 planes - and
Syrian territory," he said. "The Israeli side didn't issue a notification or, to be more
precise, they warned us a minute before conducting the strike," he said. "They told us they
were about to attack facilities on the Syrian territory, and they did it." Putin later said
during a joint press conference with the prime minister of Hungary that he signed off on
Shoigu's statement. "No doubt we should seriously look into this," he
said .
The IDF then took the unusual step of issuing a statement, at mid-day, admitting that they
were responsible for the air strike and expressing sorrow for the loss of the 15 crew members
aboard the Il-20. However, they blamed Damascus, Hezbollah and Iran for the shoot down,
reports the Times of Israel . According to the IDF, the target of the Monday night
strike was a Syrian military facility that manufactured "accurate and lethal weapons," which
were "about to be transferred, on behalf of Iran, to Hezbollah in Lebanon." The military said
its initial investigation found that "the Syrian anti-air batteries fired indiscriminately and,
from what we understand, did not bother to ensure that no Russian planes were in the air." the
Russians will know whether or not any of this is true by their own radar data and their close
working relationship with the Syrian air defense units.
In any case, it doesn't appear that Vladimir Putin was convinced b y the Israeli explanation
though he did make a point, during his press conference, of differentiating this incident from
the shoot down of a Russian Su-24 bomber by Turkish F-16's in November of 2016. According to
the Kremlin readout of a phone conversation that
Putin had with Netanyahu the Israeli prime minister promised to provide detailed information on
the activities of the Israeli Air Force over Syrian territory on that day, which will be
delivered soon to Moscow by the Israeli Air Force commander. Putin, in turn, "noted that
operations of this nature by the Israeli Air Force are in violation of Syria's sovereignty. In
this particular case, Russian-Israeli agreements on preventing dangerous incidents had not been
observed either, and that resulted in the Russian aircraft coming under Syrian air defence
fire. The Russian President called on the Israeli side to prevent such incidents in the
future."
Israeli commentary on this incident takes note that the deaths of Russian service members in
the context of an Israeli attack on the Syrian military has jacked up tensions between Tel Aviv
and Moscow. "Israel has warned that Iranian forces must leave Syria. At the same time Jerusalem
has good relations with Russia and Moscow has indicated it respects Israel's concerns about
Iranian involvement in Syria," wrote Seth Frantzman at the conclusion of a
conclusion in the Jerusalem Post . "This delicate balance now is at risk of
changing after Latakia. The death of Russian servicemen cannot be ignored by Moscow and Russia
shows that it doesn't want to accept that this was a terrible mistake, but rather seeing the
airstrikes as endangering Russian lives." Avi Issacharoff,
writing in the Times of Israel , also notes that the Israeli strike occurred in an
area that had more or less heretofore off limits to the Israeli military, primarily because of
the large presence of the Russian military in the area. Russia's Hmeimim air base lies only 18
km to the south of Latakia city. Russia's Tartous naval base is further down the coast, about
65 km, but the Russian navy also uses the port of Latakia as a secondary base. Israeli air
strikes in this area clearly increase the risk to Russian service members deployed to these
locations and this is not tolerable to the Russians.
The amount of distrust that is inherent in a 1 minute warning, when you have a plane in
the theater is all Russians need to know. A simple "apology not accepted" is what the
Israelis need to hear, followed up by a declaration in conjunction with Syria that there
will be a strict no-fly zone imposed on the area of Russian operations.
The question of a passive homing SAM navigating it's way to the largest radar cross
section within it's arc, and not to the smaller returns from alleged nearby strike
aircraft was raised in relation to MH17. If this occurred here then IAF casual reliance
on a misplaced belief in the competence of the SAA air defences may be a tenuous way to
blame Israel.
However, Russian EW data hoovered up during the attack may show another story.
Another obvious question is the 'one minute' warning time given by IAF. The Russians
would have been aware of the ingressing F16's and probably their actual takeoff's but did
not clear their own IL-20 aircraft out of the airspace ahead of them, possibly indicating
that an IAF presence was a regular and normal event not necessarily resulting in strikes.
What is on IAF / US EW data as intercepted Russian voice and data link material may show
the details of that - not that anything but the cherry picks will ever be released.
In reporting the shoot-down of the Russian IL-20, Harretz reported that "Not only Russian
and (allegedly) Israeli and French aircraft and missiles were in the air. Civilian radar
also tracked British Royal Air Force aircraft, which, unusually, had switched on their
transponders and gone into holding patterns." If true, this strongly suggests a set-up
and with NATO involvement.
Is the hotline between the Russians and the Israeli's still in place because if it is
then the Russians are giving tacit approval for future strikes, its not as if the
Russians are going to get the call and say no we don't approve of this one and the IAF is
going to turn around and go home. This isn't the same as the hotline between the Russians
and the US as they both have a common enemy, ISIS, Al Qaeda etc. The US isn't
intentionally targeting the Syrians and Iranians, the Israeli's are specifically
targeting them and they are supposed to be Russian allies. I don't see how the Russians
get a pass on this until they completely stop all IAF activity directed at Syria.
I get the distinct impression that that Il-20 was an airborne early warning system or
sigint platform- a good way for the Is/FUKUS powers to take out Russia's eyes before a
big offensive? Anyhow, sad to see that Turkey and Israel can kick Russia around, let
alone the corrupt and incompetent NATO bullyboys. How can Russia retaliate? Is it stands,
it seems clear that Israel was willing to gamble with the lives of the crews of the NATO
ships offshore. I can only think that Israel got clearance on this from the highest
levels- and just days after the IAF bombed Damascus International Airport during Syria's
trade show!
"....the Russian President called on the Israeli side to prevent such incidents in the
future."
Does Israel really care? It seems that Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman believe
they can act with impunity since no one has held them to account to date.
Is Putin between a rock and a hard place in Syria? He's committed significant
capabilities to assist Assad in regaining control of Syrian territory, but FUKUS and
Turkey are playing a spoilers game with the possibility that they could enter the Syrian
conflict with an even larger force structure.
Does Israel really care? It seems that Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor
Lieberman believe they can act with impunity since no one has held them
to account to date.
Yes she does, otherwise CO of IAF wouldn't have been on his way to Moscow and Bibi
urgently calling Putin. Once one gets more complete details of the event, such as
teeny-weeny fact of Russia not providing Syrian AD (and with a good reason) with own IFF
technology and codes--things become much more clearer. This was confirmed today. Of
course military counter-intelligence still has to do its due diligence but it
increasingly begins to look more as FUBAR rather than some "special" operations. Most
likely, in fact highly likely, IAF F-16s were detected and tracked (and even possibly
locked on) by Syrian S-200 and they "masked" (the oldest trick in the book) by descending
IL-20. Putin was explicit in his conversation with Bibi that Israel not only violates
Syria's airspace but violated previous agreements with Russia on matters of attacking
Syrian/Iranian targets. There will be consequences and Putin also was explicit today when
stated that, and I quote, "everyone will notice them". While it is a sad day for Russia
and is agony for families of the crew, it is also clear (and thank God) that France and
her ship had no hand in it whatsoever.
Is Putin between a rock and a hard place in Syria? He's committed
significant capabilities to assist Assad in regaining control of Syrian
territory, but FUKUS and Turkey are playing a spoilers game with the
possibility that they could enter the Syrian conflict with an even
larger force structure.
Actually, he didn't commit "significant" capabilities. They are very moderate by
Russia standards. You want to see significant capabilities--Google Vostok 2018. That's
significant. The appearance of new capabilities in Syria is long overdue, precisely for
the reason that it is Russia who is keeping a barrel to Turkey's temple, not the other
way around. They are needed their anyway just in case FUKUS decides to respond to
absolutely unexpected and evil chemical weapons attacks by Assad.
It seems to me that Putin's response was too 'soft'. Unlike Shoigu's.
Perhaps there is some divergence between Russian political and military policies with
regard to Israel. What happens as a result of this tragedy will clarify matters. Putin
cannot afford to alienate his military (and thus the Russian people) for the sake of
Israel.
Right. One must ask why Putin is acting this way. He has actually taken Trump off the
hook. If the offensive had gone in Trump would have been under a lot of pressure to take
military action when the WH drama played out. The DMZ agreement prevents that, and now he
takes this soft line over this bit of Israeli cleverness that cost Shoigu 14 men,
Curious. One might think he does not want to rock the boat before the mid term.
Hahahahha good try smoothie but with due respect I take it you meant a "white helmets
chemical weapons attack". It is ok now to drop the myth and speak truth to the war
criminals hiding within the white helmets.
The Israeli government delights in taking sniper shots and seeing innocents
accidentally killed. In this case they were attacking Stria to sabotage their fight
against UN declared terrorists. Disgraceful and an abandonment of all that is held high
in civil society.
Russia said its Il-20 went down about 35 kilometers from the Syrian coast at about 11 p.m.
local time, during the heat of the battle.
Russian media said that four Israeli F-16s carried out the attack and that Israel gave just
one minute's warning to Russia, which maintains large military bases in the region.
"The Israeli pilots used the Russian plane as cover and set it up to be targeted by the
Syrian air-defense forces," Russian media reported the Russian Defense Ministry as saying. "As
a consequence, the Il-20, which has radar cross section much larger than the F-16, was shot
down by an S-200 system missile."
"As a result of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military, 15 Russian service
personnel perished. This absolutely does not correspond to the spirit of Russian-Israeli
partnership," the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told Russian state media,
Reuters noted.
All of the facts have yet to be known but the Russian Defense Ministry has little doubt: the
Israelis created the conditions by which Syrian air defenses took down a Russian Il-20
electronic intelligence aircraft in the midst of an Israeli air strike on a Syrian Arab Army
facility in Latakia between 10 PM and 11 PM local time Monday night.
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told reporters, this morning, that four Israeli F-16's
used the Il-20 as cover to protect themselves from Syrian air defenses. "By using the Russian
plane as a cover the Israeli air pilots made it vulnerable to Syrian air defense fire. As a
result, the Ilyushin-20, its reflective surface being far greater than that of F-16, was downed
by a missile launched with the S-200 system," Konashenkov said. The Israeli planes deliberately
created a dangerous situation for surface ships and aircraft in that area, he stated. "The
bombing raid was near the French frigate The Auvergne and in close proximity to the Ilyushin-20
plane of Russia's Aerospace Force that was about to land," Konashenkov said. The Russians had
initially said that they had
detected missiles fired from the Auvergne, but by daybreak had stopped saying that, and the
French have denied involvement.
After Konashenkov's press briefing Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu issued a very
strong statement vowing a Russian response. "We have informed today our Israeli colleagues, and
I have also informed personally the Israeli Defense Minister [Avigdor Lieberman], that such
actions will not be left unanswered by us," Shoigu said . "Our reconnaissance airplane Il-20 with 15 crew
members on board" which had been collecting intelligence on jihadi drone operations in Idlib,
"was in the strike zone, strictly speaking between Israel's aircraft - four F-16 planes - and
Syrian territory," he said. "The Israeli side didn't issue a notification or, to be more
precise, they warned us a minute before conducting the strike," he said. "They told us they
were about to attack facilities on the Syrian territory, and they did it." Putin later said
during a joint press conference with the prime minister of Hungary that he signed off on
Shoigu's statement. "No doubt we should seriously look into this," he
said .
The IDF then took the unusual step of issuing a statement, at mid-day, admitting that they
were responsible for the air strike and expressing sorrow for the loss of the 15 crew members
aboard the Il-20. However, they blamed Damascus, Hezbollah and Iran for the shoot down,
reports the Times of Israel . According to the IDF, the target of the Monday night
strike was a Syrian military facility that manufactured "accurate and lethal weapons," which
were "about to be transferred, on behalf of Iran, to Hezbollah in Lebanon." The military said
its initial investigation found that "the Syrian anti-air batteries fired indiscriminately and,
from what we understand, did not bother to ensure that no Russian planes were in the air." the
Russians will know whether or not any of this is true by their own radar data and their close
working relationship with the Syrian air defense units.
In any case, it doesn't appear that Vladimir Putin was convinced b y the Israeli explanation
though he did make a point, during his press conference, of differentiating this incident from
the shoot down of a Russian Su-24 bomber by Turkish F-16's in November of 2016. According to
the Kremlin readout of a phone conversation that
Putin had with Netanyahu the Israeli prime minister promised to provide detailed information on
the activities of the Israeli Air Force over Syrian territory on that day, which will be
delivered soon to Moscow by the Israeli Air Force commander. Putin, in turn, "noted that
operations of this nature by the Israeli Air Force are in violation of Syria's sovereignty. In
this particular case, Russian-Israeli agreements on preventing dangerous incidents had not been
observed either, and that resulted in the Russian aircraft coming under Syrian air defence
fire. The Russian President called on the Israeli side to prevent such incidents in the
future."
Israeli commentary on this incident takes note that the deaths of Russian service members in
the context of an Israeli attack on the Syrian military has jacked up tensions between Tel Aviv
and Moscow. "Israel has warned that Iranian forces must leave Syria. At the same time Jerusalem
has good relations with Russia and Moscow has indicated it respects Israel's concerns about
Iranian involvement in Syria," wrote Seth Frantzman at the conclusion of a
conclusion in the Jerusalem Post . "This delicate balance now is at risk of
changing after Latakia. The death of Russian servicemen cannot be ignored by Moscow and Russia
shows that it doesn't want to accept that this was a terrible mistake, but rather seeing the
airstrikes as endangering Russian lives." Avi Issacharoff,
writing in the Times of Israel , also notes that the Israeli strike occurred in an
area that had more or less heretofore off limits to the Israeli military, primarily because of
the large presence of the Russian military in the area. Russia's Hmeimim air base lies only 18
km to the south of Latakia city. Russia's Tartous naval base is further down the coast, about
65 km, but the Russian navy also uses the port of Latakia as a secondary base. Israeli air
strikes in this area clearly increase the risk to Russian service members deployed to these
locations and this is not tolerable to the Russians.
The amount of distrust that is inherent in a 1 minute warning, when you have a plane in
the theater is all Russians need to know. A simple "apology not accepted" is what the
Israelis need to hear, followed up by a declaration in conjunction with Syria that there
will be a strict no-fly zone imposed on the area of Russian operations.
The question of a passive homing SAM navigating it's way to the largest radar cross
section within it's arc, and not to the smaller returns from alleged nearby strike
aircraft was raised in relation to MH17. If this occurred here then IAF casual reliance
on a misplaced belief in the competence of the SAA air defences may be a tenuous way to
blame Israel.
However, Russian EW data hoovered up during the attack may show another story.
Another obvious question is the 'one minute' warning time given by IAF. The Russians
would have been aware of the ingressing F16's and probably their actual takeoff's but did
not clear their own IL-20 aircraft out of the airspace ahead of them, possibly indicating
that an IAF presence was a regular and normal event not necessarily resulting in strikes.
What is on IAF / US EW data as intercepted Russian voice and data link material may show
the details of that - not that anything but the cherry picks will ever be released.
In reporting the shoot-down of the Russian IL-20, Harretz reported that "Not only Russian
and (allegedly) Israeli and French aircraft and missiles were in the air. Civilian radar
also tracked British Royal Air Force aircraft, which, unusually, had switched on their
transponders and gone into holding patterns." If true, this strongly suggests a set-up
and with NATO involvement.
Is the hotline between the Russians and the Israeli's still in place because if it is
then the Russians are giving tacit approval for future strikes, its not as if the
Russians are going to get the call and say no we don't approve of this one and the IAF is
going to turn around and go home. This isn't the same as the hotline between the Russians
and the US as they both have a common enemy, ISIS, Al Qaeda etc. The US isn't
intentionally targeting the Syrians and Iranians, the Israeli's are specifically
targeting them and they are supposed to be Russian allies. I don't see how the Russians
get a pass on this until they completely stop all IAF activity directed at Syria.
I get the distinct impression that that Il-20 was an airborne early warning system or
sigint platform- a good way for the Is/FUKUS powers to take out Russia's eyes before a
big offensive? Anyhow, sad to see that Turkey and Israel can kick Russia around, let
alone the corrupt and incompetent NATO bullyboys. How can Russia retaliate? Is it stands,
it seems clear that Israel was willing to gamble with the lives of the crews of the NATO
ships offshore. I can only think that Israel got clearance on this from the highest
levels- and just days after the IAF bombed Damascus International Airport during Syria's
trade show!
"....the Russian President called on the Israeli side to prevent such incidents in the
future."
Does Israel really care? It seems that Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman believe
they can act with impunity since no one has held them to account to date.
Is Putin between a rock and a hard place in Syria? He's committed significant
capabilities to assist Assad in regaining control of Syrian territory, but FUKUS and
Turkey are playing a spoilers game with the possibility that they could enter the Syrian
conflict with an even larger force structure.
Does Israel really care? It seems that Bibi Netanyahu and Avigdor
Lieberman believe they can act with impunity since no one has held them
to account to date.
Yes she does, otherwise CO of IAF wouldn't have been on his way to Moscow and Bibi
urgently calling Putin. Once one gets more complete details of the event, such as
teeny-weeny fact of Russia not providing Syrian AD (and with a good reason) with own IFF
technology and codes--things become much more clearer. This was confirmed today. Of
course military counter-intelligence still has to do its due diligence but it
increasingly begins to look more as FUBAR rather than some "special" operations. Most
likely, in fact highly likely, IAF F-16s were detected and tracked (and even possibly
locked on) by Syrian S-200 and they "masked" (the oldest trick in the book) by descending
IL-20. Putin was explicit in his conversation with Bibi that Israel not only violates
Syria's airspace but violated previous agreements with Russia on matters of attacking
Syrian/Iranian targets. There will be consequences and Putin also was explicit today when
stated that, and I quote, "everyone will notice them". While it is a sad day for Russia
and is agony for families of the crew, it is also clear (and thank God) that France and
her ship had no hand in it whatsoever.
Is Putin between a rock and a hard place in Syria? He's committed
significant capabilities to assist Assad in regaining control of Syrian
territory, but FUKUS and Turkey are playing a spoilers game with the
possibility that they could enter the Syrian conflict with an even
larger force structure.
Actually, he didn't commit "significant" capabilities. They are very moderate by
Russia standards. You want to see significant capabilities--Google Vostok 2018. That's
significant. The appearance of new capabilities in Syria is long overdue, precisely for
the reason that it is Russia who is keeping a barrel to Turkey's temple, not the other
way around. They are needed their anyway just in case FUKUS decides to respond to
absolutely unexpected and evil chemical weapons attacks by Assad.
It seems to me that Putin's response was too 'soft'. Unlike Shoigu's.
Perhaps there is some divergence between Russian political and military policies with
regard to Israel. What happens as a result of this tragedy will clarify matters. Putin
cannot afford to alienate his military (and thus the Russian people) for the sake of
Israel.
Right. One must ask why Putin is acting this way. He has actually taken Trump off the
hook. If the offensive had gone in Trump would have been under a lot of pressure to take
military action when the WH drama played out. The DMZ agreement prevents that, and now he
takes this soft line over this bit of Israeli cleverness that cost Shoigu 14 men,
Curious. One might think he does not want to rock the boat before the mid term.
Hahahahha good try smoothie but with due respect I take it you meant a "white helmets
chemical weapons attack". It is ok now to drop the myth and speak truth to the war
criminals hiding within the white helmets.
The Israeli government delights in taking sniper shots and seeing innocents
accidentally killed. In this case they were attacking Stria to sabotage their fight
against UN declared terrorists. Disgraceful and an abandonment of all that is held high
in civil society.
Monday's incident near Latakia, in which 15 Russian soldiers were killed in a downed plane,
might see Russia toughen its stance toward Israel and curtail the air force's freedom of action
in Syria
Amos
Harel
Sep 19, 2018 11:28 AM "You always have to remember the first lesson in military
history: Don't mess with the Russians," a senior officer in the Israel Defense Forces said on
Monday – without realizing how prophetic his words were.
And one might be right. On the other hand, there is a timeline of the Israeli F-16's actions that resulted in the downing of the
IL-20 in Izvestia. It was completely intentional. Premeditated murder. The planes were within several hundred meters of each other.
The Israeli's set up the IL-20 knowing beforehand it would be destroyed.
I would not want to be the pilot of the next Israeli plane that attacks Lebanon. Avoiding being hit by Syrian air defense by
murdering Russian servicemen is heavy baggage to carry.
Oh, and the Israeli Army? Well, they have nothing to fear, because they will never see combat again. Strictly joint maneuvers
with the KSA.
And Trump? Emasculated internationally. Unless you count Fort Trump in Poland. Oh, wait...
There is a lot that doesn't make sense about the downing of this Russian spy plane...some have pointed to the presence of the
French frigate and the fact that Russian sensors detected it firing missiles...the Israeli F16s as the author notes happened to
be sailing missiles right over the Russians' heads in Latakia, which previously has not happened...the area being considered off-limits
due to the Russian flag there...
All of this happens at precisely the moment in time when Putin and Erdogan produce a very significant agreement on Idlib, that
de-militarized zone of 15 to 20 km along the entire periphery of Idlib...looking at a map that amounts to easily half the territory
of the province...taking half of Idlib without firing a shot is actually a pretty big win...
One can see how various elements of the global borg would be quite unhappy about that...they had been using Erdog as a cat's
paw on Idlib up to now, but he finally realized that he can't keep dancing on the head of a pin forever...he needs Russian gas,
nuclear power and military hardware...and he needs Chinese investment and financial help...both China and Russia are 100 percent
resolved that those thousands of Russian and Chinese headchoppers in Idlib have to go...
The question of a passive homing SAM navigating it's way to the largest radar cross section within it's arc, and not to the smaller
returns from alleged nearby strike aircraft was raised in relation to MH17. If this occurred here then IAF casual reliance on
a misplaced belief in the competence of the SAA air defences may be a tenuous way to blame Israel.
However, Russian EW data hoovered up during the attack may show another story.
Another obvious question is the 'one minute' warning time given by IAF. The Russians would have been aware of the ingressing
F16's and probably their actual takeoff's but did not clear their own IL-20 aircraft out of the airspace ahead of them, possibly
indicating that an IAF presence was a regular and normal event not necessarily resulting in strikes. What is on IAF / US EW data
as intercepted Russian voice and data link material may show the details of that - not that anything but the cherry picks will
ever be released.
All the yammering about Putin by the resident Finn is moronic.
The recon plane was lost due to gross incompetence or sabotage by the commanders overseeing the
Syria operation. For sure, they knew that Israeli jets were activated. Proper procedure requires
defenseless assets to be protected. So orders should have been given to scramble Russian jets
from Khmeimim. This would have prevented the Israeli ploy and all the discussion about why
friendly fire happened would not be taking place.
The real test for Putin is if he can fire the Russian clowns responsible for this fiasco and
even have them charged with criminal negligence if not treason.
"... n this particular case, Russian-Israeli agreements on preventing dangerous incidents had not been observed either, and that resulted in the Russian aircraft coming under Syrian air defence fire. The Russian President called on the Israeli side to prevent such incidents in the future. ..."
"... But before you get too admiring of the heavy hand of America and its reputation for taking no shit from nobody, review the USS LIBERTY incident. Israel continued to pour everything it had into sinking the LIBERTY with all hands and without a trace, right up until a radio call from a nearby Carrier Task Group announced it was sending aid, at which point Israeli forces broke off the attack, announced it had been a terrible mistake, and tried to offer assistance, which was angrily refused. ..."
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58589
The Israeli Prime Minister expressed his condolences over the death of the 15 servicemen
aboard the Il-20 aircraft shot down in Syria on September 17. With respect to a thorough
investigation, Benjamin Netanyahu promised to provide detailed information on the activities
of the Israeli Air Force over Syrian territory on that day, which will be delivered soon to
Moscow by the Israeli Air Force commander.
Vladimir Putin noted that operations of this nature by the Israeli Air Force are in
violation of Syria's sovereignty. In this particular case, Russian-Israeli agreements on
preventing dangerous incidents had not been observed either, and that resulted in the Russian
aircraft coming under Syrian air defence fire. The Russian President called on the Israeli
side to prevent such incidents in the future.
In other words Israel don't do it again.
My prediction that nothing would be done is proved correct.
Didn't take long for excuses to be made for Israel – after what they did to your own
people.
Maybe they should just shoot the Israeli Air Force Commander as soon as he steps off the
plane. Or better still, shoot down his plane with him on it as soon as he enters Russian
airspace!
You're not wrong, and I'd like to see Russia take a harder line with those Israeli yobbos,
since continuing to do things the civilized way merely assures them they are the masters of
dirty tricks and innocent faces.
But before you get too admiring of the heavy hand of America
and its reputation for taking no shit from nobody, review the USS LIBERTY incident. Israel
continued to pour everything it had into sinking the LIBERTY with all hands and without a
trace, right up until a radio call from a nearby Carrier Task Group announced it was sending
aid, at which point Israeli forces broke off the attack, announced it had been a terrible
mistake, and tried to offer assistance, which was angrily refused.
Israel murdered 34 American servicemen that day, and would have killed everyone on board
and in all probability blamed the disappearance on the Arabs, except for the surprising
durability of the ship despite tremendous damage. And the American government's verdict,
against overwhelming evidence to the contrary, was that Israel had simply made a mistake.
It's notable here that Israel's excuse was it had mistaken LIBERTY for a decommissioned
Egyptian horse-carrier. Even if that were true, would it have been worth the combined might
of the Israeli navy and air force to sink an Egyptian horse-carrier? What would be the
tactical triumph in that?
"... At the same time as the Israeli air force attacked, a Russian frigate (red) near the coast detected missile launches from the French Frigate Auvergne (blue) nearby. The French frigate carries air, ship and land attack missiles. France denied "any involvement in the incident." But it seems that this only referred to the IL-20 incident and did not deny launching missiles. ..."
"... Israel (and France?) are deliberately provoking the Syrian and Russian forces. It hopes for a response that allows it play the victim and to call on U.S. President Trump for help and protection. The help would come in the form of a U.S., British and French attack on the Syrian government and Syrian military targets. ..."
"... something stinks...The Syrian and russian AD systems are linked together for the express purpose of not shooting themselves...The IL20 should have been a big friendly target, and not targetable by syrian AD... ..."
"... At the same time, Israel is constantly working to prevent our enemies from arming themselves with advanced weaponry. Our red lines are as sharp as ever and our determination to enforce them is stronger than ever. ..."
"... This week we will mark, in synagogues and cemeteries, Yom Kippur, the holiest day of our people, and the day on which, 45 years ago, we absorbed a bloody attack that cost us thousands of victims. ..."
"... If Israel did not attack Syria without any legal pretext, none of this would have happened. Why do the USA and its NATO allies stand by and watch as Israel commits so many acts of naked aggression? ..."
"... Because USA and NATO are wholly owned subsidiaries of Israel. Besides, the USA does not sit idly by - it actively supports Israel. ..."
<). This agreement takes away the chance of an imminent wider war in which the U.S. and
some of its allies would use a fake 'chemical attack' as a pretext to launch missiles against
a large number of Syrian government targets and military positions.>
A peaceful solution of the Idleb situation is unsatisfying for Israel. The successful
Syrian defeat of the Jihadi enemy inside the country would allow Syria and its allies to
concentrate their forces against Israel. Israel wants the Syrian government destroyed and the
country in chaos.
On Sunday September 16 Israel tried to hit an Iranian Boeing 747
freight plane at Damascus airport. The plane allegedly carried an Iranian copy of the Russian
S-300 long range air defense System for the Syrian army.
On Monday around 10:00pm local time 4 F-16 jets of the Israeli airforce, coming from the
sea, launched missiles against at least three targets on Syria's coast. The strike came only
hours after Israel released satellite images of what it called "strategic targets"
in Syria. The integrated Syrian and Russian air-defenses responded.
The Israeli air force had warned the Russian forces in Syria only one minute before the
strike. A Russian IL-20 electronic warfare airplane (red line) was preparing to land at the
Russian airport near Latakia just as the Israeli attack (blue) happened.
The IL-20 was hit 35 kilometers off the coast by a S-200 air-defense missile fired by the
Syrian military towards the Israeli attack. There were 15 Russian soldiers on board of the
plane which were likely all killed. Russian ships search for survivors. Some wreckage of the
plane was found at sea 27 kilometers west of the village of Banias.
The Israeli attack came out of the same direction as the Russian IL-20. The large 4
propeller plane creates a much bigger radar reflection than the small F-16s fighter jets. The
S-200 missiles have a semi-active radar homing seeker
. These are passive detectors of a radar signal which is provided by an external source, in
this case the Syrian and Russian radars on the ground. While the missile was aimed at the
F-16 its seeker likely mistook the larger radar reflection of IL-20 for the intended
target.
At the same time as the Israeli air force attacked, a Russian frigate (red) near the coast
detected missile launches from the French Frigate Auvergne (blue) nearby. The French frigate
carries air, ship and land attack missiles. France denied "any involvement in the incident."
But it seems that this only referred to the IL-20 incident and did not deny launching
missiles.
Not only Russian and (allegedly) Israeli and French aircraft and missiles were in the air.
Civilian radar also tracked British Royal Air Force aircraft, which, unusually, had
switched on their transponders and gone into holding patterns – most likely to avoid
being somehow involved in the exchange of fire over Latakia.
The Russian Defense Ministry accuses
the Israeli government of a deliberate set up:
"Israel did not warn the command of the Russian troops in Syria about the planned
operation. We received a notification via a hotline less than a minute before the strike,
which did not allow the Russian aircraft to be directed to a safe zone," Russian Defense
Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said.
After the Israeli attack the Syrian state TV showed the headquarters of
the Technical Industries Agency near Latakia on fire. Other targets were near Jableh, south
of Latakia, and Homs. At least ten people were wounded due to these attacks.
The Russian military spokesman also
accused Israel of "hostile action" against Russian forces:
"We see these provocative actions of Israel as hostile," Konashenkov said, adding that 15
Russian servicemen were killed as a result of the "irresponsible actions" of Israel's
Defense Forces, which violated "the spirit of the Israeli-Russian partnership."
According to the spokesman, the Russian Defense Ministry reserves the right to an "adequate
response" following the Israeli attack.
Israel (and France?) are deliberately provoking the Syrian and Russian forces. It hopes
for a response that allows it play the victim and to call on U.S. President Trump for help
and protection. The help would come in the form of a U.S., British and French attack on the
Syrian government and Syrian military targets.
Russia will certainly take revenge for the Israeli provocation, but will likely do so in
the political arena. On Netanyahoo's personal request Russia had stopped the delivery of
original Russian S-300 long range air-defense missiles to the Syrian military. These would
have been less likely to veer off towards the wrong target. In consequence an Iranian 747 was
damaged and 15 Russian soldiers were killed. Netanyahoo can forget about any further such
'favors' from Moscow.
Posted by b on September 18, 2018 at 06:09 AM |
Permalink
Comments
next page " I am not sure. Give it more time to play out. Everyone is scurrying about
trying to figure out the next move right now. Yom Kippur is just around the corner, the
Israelis are quiet...
If that interpretation holds water I can see two variants.
Remember, recently Russia told they upgraded all electronics within old Soviet S-125 and
S-200 missiles in Syria. Russia also allegedly retrained Syrian Arab Army personnel and
plugged their stations into Russian AD network.
Option 1: Israeli indeed were hiding behind IL-20. They did not intended harm to it, they
merely were shielding themselves from Syrian AD, effectively disabling the station. They did
not expect Syrians to actually fire in anger with such a complicated dynamic geometry.
Option 2: Israeli just demonstrated that despite all the fanfares about Russian upgrading
and drilling Syrian Arab Army air defensed, SAA is still only SAA.
Afterall back then in Egypt IAF successfully challenged Soviet air force. So they probably
still are highly skilled in both technological and psychological aspects of air
warfare.
something stinks...The Syrian and russian AD systems are linked together for the express
purpose of not shooting themselves...The IL20 should have been a big friendly target, and not
targetable by syrian AD...
I don't get why Israel would backstab friendly superpower, which kept SAA and Iran off its
back and allowed to bomb Syria without any consequences. Even refused S-300 delivery to SAA
(what to speak of S-400, which is offered to countries like Turkey and Saudis). Israel might
be panicking, but I only see negative outcome out of this mess.
Russia was always way too lenient in such situations in the past, therefore I don't expect
much in response. There wont be military reaction, and after some Israel's concessions (IMHO
Israel will offer something in one shape or another) there might even not be overt political
response. I still doubt Russia will hand over S-300 to SAA, at the most Russia might threaten
with it but wont follow through.
If Iranian Bavar 373 was really destroyed in Damascus international airport as Magnier
suspects, it would be a damn shame. That's what Syria really needs now.
In all honesty, the reality of Russia's weakness is there if you want to see it.
There will be no delivery of S-300s to Syria, there will be no retaliation by Russia
towards Israel.
"Political" retaliation is tantamount to "imaginary" retaliation, much like many declare
Putin having won in Syria even as the war has not even ended.
On Netanyahoo's personal request Russia had stopped the delivery of original Russian S-300
long range air-defense missiles to the Syrian military. In consequence a Iranian 747 was
damaged and 15 Russian soldiers were killed. .
Exactly, only way forward now is to give Syria S300 otherwise this killing will occur
again - if Putin do not do this he is way more dumb than we can imagine apparently.
What cannot be denied by anyone is that all this harm was deliberately caused by Israel. It
openly boasts of having bombed Syria hundreds of times "to attack Iranian targets". But that
is no excuse at all! International law, the UN Charter and the Nuremberg Principles forbid
any nation to attack another nation that has not declared war on it, unless by order of the
UNSC.
If Israel did not attack Syria without any legal pretext, none of this would have
happened. Why do the USA and its NATO allies stand by and watch as Israel commits so many
acts of naked aggression?
It is perfectly obvious that all American and NATO talk of the "rules-based international
order" are self-serving hypocritical lies. The only rule that they recognize is "We are
always right, and we may do whatever we wish".
It is time for Russia (and, if possible, China and other nations) really to hurt Israel
and its co-conspirators by any means they can.
Aranian Boeing hit? Is there any photographic evidence?
Russian airplane shot down as the missile mistook the target? Who told you this?
As we have seen with the fake US, France and Uk attack on Barzeh, Damascus, on a science
institute that was already demolished, not a single rocket was launched then, we must be very
careful to check all information.
"Israel wants the Syrian government destroyed and the country in chaos."
Combining the fact that the war is almost lost for the Anglosaxion axis and the stubborn
moves pushing for more war could mean that Israel is only after the Golan Heights and not
(yet) after Syria or Iran. They don't care about other's losses.
As few of us here have tried to point out so many times months ago here - Russia is weak and
have nothing against US/Nato/Israel.
Whats worse is that Russia have appeased the same states so many times and now we see what
this appeasement leads to.
Will it lead to anything, any return by Russia? No and that is why this will end with the
bombing of Assad, there is no other way around this.
Sad day for Syria and humiliating for Russia being played by Israel/France, rather
ridiculous.
"........This agreement takes away the chance of an imminent wider war in which the U.S.
and some of its allies would use a fake 'chemical attack' as a pretext to launch missiles
against a large number of Syrian government targets and military positions......."
The Russian government is still stuck on inventing false theories on the downing of MH17
so their supposed intel about Britsh intelligence working with the "terrorists" to create a
false flag chemical attack in Idlib is nothing more than propaganda i.e., more Russian lies.
Most recently, the Russian government lied when they denied there was a chemical attack in
Douma. According to the Russian MOD, this was all staged by the White Helmets.
To prove this point, the state-owned journalists at Channel 1 "staged" the staging of the
chemical attack - and showed it on Russian television according to the Moscow Times ("Russian
TV Uses Film Stills as Proof Syria Chemical Attack Was Staged":
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/russian-tv-uses-film-stills-as-proof-syria-chemical-attack-was-staged-61249).
Other lies have been exposed concerning the Douma chemical attack including that a child
(used for pro Russian propaganda to prove the staging of the attack) was (secretly)
interviewed at a Russian military complex in Damascus (Russian TV interview with Syrian boy
was secretly conducted at army facility https://interc.pt/2K8gEd2 by @RobertMackey).
I agree that the downing of the Russian military plane is potentially a serious breech of
the Russian-Israeli agreement. Israel was able to conduct airstrikes against Iranian military
targets in Syria mostly unopposed by Russia. This certainly is in danger of changing. Russia
could arm Syria with the S-300 missile defense system which would force Israel to change
their tactics.
With sufficient jamming and electronic counter measures (ECMs) in use, the semi-active seeker
could have been tricked into a space close enough to the Il-20 that a detonation would
damage/destroy it. It doesn't mean the system was garbage, or that the system even actively
targeted the Russian plane, just that it was close enough that a detonation would destroy it.
Using the radar section of the larger plane was an aggressive tactic, the interaction between
the use of ECM and the S-200 might not have been understood to cause the destruction of the
Russian plane although most certainly the risks were known and the attack wasn't called off.
This was certainly a well wrapped up provocation. Few people here seem to know that any
Russian attack on NATO assets in the Mediterranean is grounds for invoking Article 5. I don't
think NATO would care whether it was an accident or not, they seem to fabricate false flags
at their leisure. Israel isn't in NATO so the mediterranean sea will be a less reliable
battle space for them, unfortunately they can continue to violate Lebanese airspace at
will.
As for improving the air defense system in Syria, S-200/300/400, aren't especially useful
at suppressing these types of Israeli aggressions as many of them can be carried out without
entering Syrian airspace or by using cruise missiles. For those types of attacks, Tor/Pantsir
are the best you can do. But remember, even if the interception rate is 90%, if Israeli
launches a 500 glide bombs, cruise missiles, or air to ground missiles, 50 would still get
through to damage Syrian infrastructure. All in all, such use rates of weapons just feeds the
MIC in the US...
A political or asymmetrical response is best. There will also be a repositioning of
Russian assets in the region, not necessarily to deter future Israeli aggression but to
strengthen the Russian negotiating position. The Russians might also be willing to ignore the
loss of life for a technological transfer or two...
Actually you are lying/spreading propaganda. Nothing of what you just said refute that
rebels in Douma might create false flag attacks as they have earlier before western
attacks.
The Syrians would have known about which Russian planes were in the area so it's hard to see
how they could have shot one down unless they're just incompetent.
The politics of this is very bad for Russia. Toadying Isreal and getting kicked for it.
Failing to arm Syria is noted by other states, partners. This is where you will wind up with
the ever-weak Russians. This incident emboldens Isreal, the U.S, UK. Take strong action and
Russia (and China) will just whine and fold. Disheartens all those who have been counting on
Russia.
You can hardly count the damage this bad behaviour by Russia is and will cause.
Here is what an appropriate response with balls would look like:
"Israel has bombed Syria over 200 times in the past 18 months.
Syrian attacks on Israel: Zero
Syria is an Ally of the Russian Federation. Israel's latest aggression has costs 15
Russian lives.
Any further attack on Syria by Israel (or anyone else) will be met with the full force of
the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, including its nuclear arsenal, if deemed
appropriate.
We understand an attack on Israel (or other western US ally) could be met with retaliation
on Russian interests in Syria or on Russian soil.
To be clear, any attack on Russian interests will be met with the destruction of the
attack's source, be it sea, air or land based. Any attack on Russian soil will be met with a
devastating full scale Nuclear attack on American soil, leading to possible MAD.
It appears therefore that the future of the world now depends on Israel's desire to pursue
its aggression towards Syria, a country that has never attacked Israel, or any of the other
nations waging war against it since 2012 now, covertly or not.
We strongly encourage our western partners to work with Israel to maintain peace and
strategic balance in the world, and with Russia in its efforts to reinstate Syrian
sovereignty over its own territory.
We trust it is in everyone's interest to avoid any further unnecessary and potentially
catastrophic escalation."
but yeah, we will get some ban on israeli dates, nuts and hummus imports to russia and
maybe they will offer to pay for the funerals as well. until next time, the russian bear is
patiently turning into a nice furry rug for the west to walk on again. for now..
It is hard to tell really what is the background of this incident. Question is what french
ship was doing there and did it really fire missiles?
Russia is carefully balancing in this triade between Turkey, Israel and Iran and had
surely anticipated some sort of suchlike provocations. Israel could have just entraped itself
with this attack way across the russian red line - that is for sure. So I doubt that we will
see more of such adventures in the days to come, unless of course Russia's retaliation
renders Israel to comply with agreed rules of engagement and Israel refuses to understand
those. Then we will see wider kinetic events over the Med theater and I am sure it will not
end up well for opponents of Syria and its allies.
I wonder what they are up to overall, Idlib deal with Turkey for example, just days before
an assualt, what did they expect? How would that deal end anything by letting
rebels/terrorists a way out?
THe russians doesnt seems to have a general plan for why they are in Syria anymore.
This seems plausible and also fitting with both the US statement about the attack as well as
my belief Israel, not the US, is obviously the most interested anti-Assad party on the ground
(and in the air). I don't doubt Russia will manage to extract some measure of revenge in time
and agree it will by necessity be diplomatic in nature.
b, your even handed assessments continue to impress. Your journalism gains credibility in
time. I know many here are surprised and bitterly disappointed the attack on Idleb has not
already commenced and will be delayed indefinitely at least beyond the US midterm
elections.
I can't argue with any of these criticisms of the Russians. For all the attempts to depict
the Turkey deal as some kind of masterstroke, the fact remains that Putin planned to attack
in Idleb and then caved in to extortion (the false flag threat) in a way that never works and
only emboldens the extortionist. With these Zionist attacks we're already seeing the result.
I predict the Russian response would be to deny the airspace around large Russian air assets
such as the IL-20. The IDF would find it difficult to use this tactic again.
@23 [EtTuBrute | Sep 18, 2018 8:15:09 AM] -- "Syria is an Ally of the Russian Federation.
Israel's latest aggression has costs 15 Russian lives."
Interesting deep core values issue here, imo.
Whether 15 Russian lives, or 25m (+/-) in WW2 -- what does it matter in the (western)
public perception business?
Very little perhaps: either (a) they (Russians) are just grunt stupid comrade-cogs in a
communist machine and don't matter all that much (the value of a Palestinian vs an Israeli
etc); and/or (b) even they themselves (Russians) don't give a f_ck about an individual's
identity representing a nation's pride and sovereignty -- something that the USA (and others)
at least claim (when it suits them).
Hard to read but basically it's well past 'who gives a toss' what Russia thinks and feels
-- it's what they do (or don't do) that counts ... and they don't do much these days except
for patience. Where's the need for 'respect' in that?
Tel Aviv; Paris; London; and Washington are just rolling around on the floor laughing,
imo.
In his press conference with Orban just now, Putin recalled that a Turkish jet had
voluntarily downed a Russian plane (meaning Ergo knew yesterday what was coming? thus his
grim?) and that in this case it was not voluntarily that the Russian plane had been put down
but that very visible measures would be taken to step up the Russian presence on Syrian
ground...
No. This was a Russian "win", as they got Turkey to cooperate. Turkey can now find out
which Syrian "rebels" it does indeed control and eliminate the rest with Russia. Both, Turkey
and Russia, granting the Syrian army it will not get attackes.
It was clear in the run up that "the West" threatened to attack in case the Syrian army
and Russia attacked Idlib. Cooperation with Turkey means Syria reached its goals without the
attack.
Putin has now called the downing of the Russian plane "looks like a chain of tragic
circumstances". This will have cost Netanyahu.
The U.S. alleged that Sarin and Chlorine was used in Douma, based on the propaganda group
White Helmets and other militants.
The Syrian observatory did not report a gas attack. It said that several people suffocate
from dust after their shelter collapsed.
The OPCW, which took samples and analyzed them, found no trace of Sarin or similar and
found no evidence for the use of Chlorine gas.
Several 'western' journalist went to Douma and talked to witnesses. All, including the
medical personal in the nearby clinic, denied that any such a thing happened.
The Syrians would have known about which Russian planes were in the area so it's hard to
see how they could have shot one down unless they're just incompetent .
Or the Syrians are just extremely frustrated with the Russians
'slow-playing' the whole situation and wanted an ' 'excuse' to
'accidentally' shoot down the wrong plane.
Oops.
Sorry Vlad, bet this wouldn't have happened if we had a more up-to-date air defense
system. S-300, or S-400 say.
Pity we haven't been able to get one of those to defend ourselves........
The revelations about MH17 were already happening before the incident. For example the
Russians disclosed that they used the serial number of the missile (published by the JIT) to
identify the manufacturing plant, the production date as well as the ownership.
Posted by: sarz | Sep 18, 2018 9:18:29 AM | 40
Putin says it was a tragic set of circumstances
I would expect this. No use in official blaming (MOD statements will be sufficient to make
it clear that they know who's behind this), just make sure that such a thing won't happen
again. Iirc he finished the press conference stating that russia must improve the
coordination and communication of their defense and that would take place and will be noticed
by everyone.
After all there's still a possibility that this particular incident was an accident
after all.
Do you really believe those explanations? S400 could shut down F15 over Tel-Aviv, what they
hell happened. I know for the fact that Syrian SAA have liaisons/instructors in very unit,
shooting down Russian Spy airplane is impossible with this technology especially near Russian
base with S400 that suppose to track all the Israeli Air Force bases and telling us that they
were notified by Israel minutes before attack is a lie , they were not notified at all, as it
takes minutes to Israeli jets to get into position to fire which Russian knew as soon as F15s
took off.
It is charade people, the only reasonable explanation is that Putin was nice not to
illuminate with combat radar Israeli F15 as long as they were outside of Syrian territory.
Israel rarely did
it, did not have to.
"Russia will investigate the incident, Putin said, adding that Moscow will boost security
of Russian troops in Syria following the incident. He said that these will be "the steps that
everyone will notice.""
in the morning he got to kiss his Master Erdogan's ring. In the evening Israel and Nato
(France) gave a blazing demonstration of their TOTAL disrespect for Russia and Putin. This
morning Putin gets to humiliate his military people, who FINALLY spoke some strong words vs
Israel, only to be submarined by Putin who blithely forgave Israel entirely. Putin can't
stoop and bow enough to Russia's and the world's enemies.
As I've said before, I suspect the military hierarchy, or part of it, is increasingly
frustrated with the impossible and dishonorable situations Putin puts them in.
According to the "Israeli official", that gives an average of about 11 Israeli strikes on
Iranian targets in Syria PER MONTH for the last 18 months...
Your definition of "quiet" Israelis ??
People here forget that it is the EU who is 100% backing Ergo (and giving him extra ideas?)
because they don't want 1 single extra refugee to cross either the Syrian or the Turkish
borders into Europe.
Russia has its own S-400 systems defending Latakia, so it can defend itself and doesn't need
Syria's S-200s.
They would have been watching the Israeli F-16s on radar, and then they get a phone call
saying an attack is happening in one minute. Russia must have said "OK", because they didn't
blow the F-16s out of the sky. All they have to say to Israel is "Next time it will NOT be
OK." and Israel will have to stop it's invasions.
The hairy-chested Americans here are calling Putin weak, but he can't afford to make any
over-reaching mistakes, and all decent, responsible human beings are glad of that. Do you
want to have WW3 just to show how much "balls" you've got?
Could there be a more passive response. Sounds like it came straight from the U.S. State
Dept.. The only thing missing was some twisted version of how Israel has every right to
protect itself even when using a Russian airliner as cover for an illegal missile strike
against a Russian ally.
No mention of agency or responsibility for initiating this "tragic set of
circumstances".
The reality is the jews have every western government AND Russia under their thumb and
they can do whatever the f*ck they want with no fear of actual reprecussions other than some
tepid verbal wet noodle lashing at worst.
> The revelations about MH17 were already happening before the incident
So just like many voices here claim Russia MUST immediately hurt Israel in a painful way,
someone could had decided that Russian MoD should be punished painful way within few hours
from their transgression.
Or it could be about "dominating news cycle" - when hot headlines are about Russian
Military craft downed, who would lok into other information about Russian MoD right now? thus
the new statements on MH17 are getting flushed into the memory hole.
What appears to have happened is that an Israeli pilot used an old pilot's trick on the air
defence system. Perhaps the French frigate was in on game, too.
The obvious next move is for the pilot to be court-martialled and a report/whitewash issued
to establish that he was acting on his own initiative.
One of the less recognised problems with this situation is that, in the stand-off between the
Deep State and the Presidency, local military commanders are able to make their own policy
choices. In some cases, of course, these will reflect the dual loyalties which are
increasingly to be found among military men who are unsure who they are fighting for but
understand that nobody ever lost promotion by taking Israel's side.
Arioch suggest Russian plane down in Syria to be a direct response to Russia's recent proof
that the MH17 Boeing over Ukraine was shot down by Kiev using missiles produced in Ukraine by
the government at Kiev.
Nil says the downed Russian airplane in Syria was intentional?
Somebody says somebody (USA, Saudia Arabia, or CIA, Mossad, or M16) forced
the war b/c/e Russian deal with Turkey was too much
Harry says he d/n understand why Israel would backstab friendly superpower, which kept SAA
and Iran off its back and allowed to bomb Syria without any consequences. Even refused S-300
delivery to SAA (what to speak of S-400, which is offered to countries like Turkey and
Saudis). Julian blames Russia for failing to give S-400 to Syria ( I agree, but the fact that
Putin refuses to arm Syria with s-400 is very revealing indeed)
Welsh says It is time for Russia (and, if possible, China and other nations) really to
hurt Israel and its co-conspirators by any means they can.8 Slaphappy thinks sinking Israeli
Dophin Subs is the solution. Out of Istanbul reminds that any Russian attack on NATO assets
in the Mediterranean is grounds for [NATO to invoke} Article 5. EtTuBrute wants total
war,
R. Browning asks Why the French battleship? (B/b French owned Syria after WWI?
Realistic says no Russian Response, b/c Russia lacks the depth in-might to respond
I agree with Partizan, none of this shit explains the situation. Something else is behind
this and most likely its oil and gas.
Reportedly, Israeli MoD issued an official statement, that
1. They express condolences.
2. They lay the responsibility with Assad, Hisbollah and Iran. Israeli jets were bombing
Assad's plants producing W.M.D. that Hisbollah threatened Israel with.
3. When IAF jets were attacking Syria the IL-20 was not yet in AD's fire range.
4. When SAA AD started shooting missiles IAF jets were already back in Israeli air space
after the attack was completed. SAA AD allegedly were shooting in panic everywhere without
getting situational awareness
5. Israel allegedly would supply Russia with all the relevant documents and facts to
investigate the accident.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1,2 - usual diplomatic bla-bla.
3,4 - if true (and Russian radars should have enough coverage to check it), shows both
incompetence of SAA AD personnel and lack of AD integration (S-200 station only started
reacting to the attack after the attack, they were not alerted in advance about IAF jets
approaching, despite Russian AVACS in air)
5 - now that seems to be some rather strong language. Israel seems either heavily bluffing or
freaked out. Or both.
> International law, the UN Charter and the Nuremberg Principles forbid any nation to
attack another nation that has not declared war on it, unless by order of the UNSC.
Arent's Syria and Israel at war for many decades? Same way like USA and DPRK?
It seems that ME "colonial" history is repeating itself ...
(Anglo-French-Israeli deception 2.0.. with the US "kicking-ass" or was it "leading?" from
behind)
The documentary evidence does not leave any room for doubt that at Sèvres, during
the three days in late October 1956, an elaborate war plot was hatched against Egypt by the
representatives of France, Britain and Israel.
The Protocol of Sèvres is the most conclusive piece of evidence for it lays out
in precise detail and with a precise time-table how the joint war against Egypt was
intended to proceed and shows foreknowledge of each other's intentions. The central aim of
the plot was the overthrow of Gamal Abdel Nasser (F: his support for Algerian
„rebels", UK: his nationalisation of Suez Canal) This aim is not explicitly stated in
the protocol but it emerges clearly and unambiguously from all the records of the
discussions surrounding it.
For him [Ben Gurion] the protocol was not something to be ashamed of but a major
achievement. It represented a military pact with two great powers against a common enemy,
albeit a secret and awkward pact. Britain's persistent cold-shouldering of Israel was
disappointing and disconcerting. But Ben-Gurion felt that the protocol at least gave him a
guarantee against betrayal by Perfidious Albion.
...An even more intriguing conversation took place at the end of this one. It concerned
French assistance to Israel in developing nuclear technology. Details of this second
conversation only emerged in 1995 when Shimon Peres published his memoirs. The relevant
passage reads as follows:
Before the final signing, I asked Ben-Gurion for a brief adjournment, during which I met
Mollet and Bourgés-Maunoury alone. It was here that I finalized with these two
leaders an agreement for the building of a nuclear reactor at Dimona, in southern Israel...
and the supply of natural uranium to fuel it. I put forward a series of detailed proposals
and, after discussion, they accepted them.[40]... A year later, in September 1957, when
Bourgès-Maunoury was prime minister, France delivered to Israel a nuclear reactor
which was twice the capacity previously promised.[41]
...it shows that the French were determined to go to war at almost any price and for their
own reasons, not, as Abel Thomas later claimed, in order to save Israel. Secondly, it
reveals the full extent of the incentives that the French were prepared to give Israel in
order to induce her to play the part assigned to her in the war plot against Egypt.
Thirdly, it confirms the impression that Israel did not face any serious threat of
Egyptian attack at that time but colluded with the European powers to attack Egypt for
other reasons. Taken together, the two private conversations at Sèvres thus
drive a coach and horses through the official version which says that Israel only went
to war because if faced an imminent danger of attack from Egypt.
(Source: The Protocol of Sèvres,1956: Anatomy of a War Plot by Avi Shlaim)
How could Putin ever think he could trust Netanyahu or the IDF???
According to the July 6 interim report (INTERIM REPORT OF THE OPCW FACT-FINDING MISSION IN
SYRIA REGARDING THE INCIDENT OF ALLEGED USE OF TOXIC CHEMICALS AS A WEAPON IN DOUMA, SYRIAN
ARAB REPUBLIC, ON 7 APRIL 2018 - 2.6):
"..........The FFM team visited Locations 2 and 4, where it observed the presence of an
industrial gas cylinder on a top floor patio at Location 2, and the presence of a similar
cylinder lying on the bed of a top floor apartment at Location 4. Close to the location of
each cylinder there were crater-like openings in the respective reinforced concrete roofs.
Work is ongoing to assess the association of these cylinders with the incident, the
relative damage to the cylinders and the roofs, and how the cylinders arrived at their
respective locations ........."
".......These incidents bring to 39 the total known Syrian chemical attacks, a UN official
said. BY REUTERS SEPTEMBER 12, 2018 13:35
GENEVA - Syrian government forces fired chlorine, a banned chemical weapon, on a
rebel-held Damascus suburb and on Idlib province this year, in attacks that constitute war
crimes, United Nations human rights investigators said on Wednesday. The three incidents
bring to 39 the number of chemical attacks which the Commission of Inquiry on Syria has
documented since 2013, including 33 attributed to the government, a UN official told
Reuters. ........"To recapture eastern Ghouta in April, government forces launched
numerous indiscriminate attacks in densely populated civilian areas, which included the
use of chemical weapons," it said, referring to incidents on Jan. 22 and Feb. 1 in a
residential area of Douma, eastern Ghouta, outside the capital ........A
surface-to-surface, improvised rocket-assisted munition had been used in the two Douma
incidents, it said. "Specifically the munitions documented were built around
industrially-produced Iranian artillery rockets known to have been supplied to forces
commanded by the (Syrian) government," the report added. In the northwest province of
Idlib - where the United Nations fears a major imminent assault by Syrian and Russian
forces against the last rebel-held stronghold - chlorine was also used on February 4, the
UN report said."Government helicopters dropped at least two barrels carrying chlorine
payloads in the Taleel area of Saraqeb," it said, adding that at least 11 men were
injured. "Documentary and material evidence analyzed by the Commission confirmed the
presence of helicopters in the area and the use of two yellow gas cylinders"
........"
Sadly, those 15 Russian aircrew were just pawns in a bigger game. True of any lower ranks
serving in the military.
Having pulled this trick once, I doubt the Israelis will be able to do it again. It was a
clever stunt, but with essentially minor military impact. And I doubt the Israelis
anticipated the destruction of the IL-20 by a Syrian SAM.
Lastly, I think it takes much more strength to resist the impulse to respond in kind to
such provocations, which could easily lead to uncontrollable escalation. What's important is
the end game, not these pin-pricks.
I am sorry to see others waste their precious time refuting your obvious bullshit
propaganda with which you tainted this site. Considering you are a paid troll, you have
nothing better to do with your time, whereas many worthy commentators on this site have
actual jobs and, for the most part, credible, non-biased information to share. I hope that in
the future, when one such as you comes to dump on this site, you will immediately be called
out as a troll and left to mire in your own bs.
"Putin says it was a tragic set of circumstances."
Coming after 3 weeks of European MSM explaining every day with the help of "experts" that the
Russians and their bloodthirsty Syrian allies are going to slaughter 3 million innocent
civilians in Idlib, it might not be such a bad move.
...
After all there's still a possibility that this particular incident was an accident after
all.
Posted by: radiator | Sep 18, 2018 9:40:42 AM | 46
Yes - an "accident" CAUSED by "Israel" using the IL-20 as cover for a sneak attack. The
Russian plane was preparing to land so its flight path was predictable and anticipated.
The altitude of the F-16s relative to the IL-20, at the time the F-16s were targeted by
Syrian AD, will be the significant factor in apportioning blame.
One wonders how Chutzpah-ish Bibi is feeling right now?
It was already covered in the early days of the Ukrainian conflict that rebels overran a
Ukrainian air defense base and acquired the launcher and missiles. It's not a new theory or
propaganda. It still doesn't change US intelligence analysts' estimation that the civilian
aircraft was downed by mistake. Over a period of a month, the rebels shot down 3 aircraft
while 900 passenger jets safely passed through the airspace.
summers' stuff is late stage propaganda. It is rehashing old material that has already
been settled.
"I dont get why Israel would backstab friendly superpower, which kept SAA and Iran off its
back and allowed to bomb Syria without any consequences."
Because they don't give a fsck. The official Israeli response to the incident is that it
was all Assad's fault, or Hezbollah, or Iran, certainly not poor innocent israel.
The Israeli attack was also coordinated with a zero-notice missle launch from a French
ship. It all ties in with former CIA director Mike Morrell's statement that Russia should pay
a price by having Russians killed.
Yes Putin is "pathetic" and I am sure thats the conclusion the military throughout
european nations today recognize.
He could have said and done alot after this attack, instead he conceades that it was a
"mistake" that Israel apparently bomb Syria like this causing these deaths.
Vladimir Poostain , Sep 18, 2018 11:36:19 AM |
link
Russia can choke on a dick. What do they call 15 dead Russians? A start.
Netanyahu tells Putin he expresses regret at loss of Russian lives
"Netanyahu stressed the importance of continuing coordination in the security area between
Israel and Russia, which prevented many losses on the both sides over the past three
years," the press service said on Tuesday, after Putin and the Israeli PM spoke by
telephone.
"Putin directly contradicts his own Defense Minister. Putin: 'tragic chain of circumstances'
Russian MoD: 'Israeli F-16s carrying otu the air strikes used the Russian plane as cover to
allow them to approach their targets on the ground w/out being hit by Syrian anti-aircraft
fire."
"..........The FFM team visited Locations 2 and 4, where it observed the presence of an
industrial gas cylinder on a top floor patio at Location 2, and the presence of a similar
cylinder lying on the bed of a top floor apartment at Location 4. Close to the location of
each cylinder there were crater-like openings in the respective reinforced concrete roofs.
Work is ongoing to assess the association of these cylinders with the incident, the relative
damage to the cylinders and the roofs, and how the cylinders arrived at their respective
locations........." cited by craigsummers
This does not look like an aerial chemical attacks, but biased investigators tend to
obfuscate the obvious by delaying conclusions. I heard that a gas cylinder with faulty valve
can make a "decent missile" and pierce a few ceilings, but this happened when it is propelled
by the pressured gas, and "crater like opening suggests a bomb with explosives. It was
reported that dust raised by the shockwave led to suffocation, so those two different reports
match. An industrial cylinder would neet to be propelled in some way that is not known to me,
or used in some combination with explosive bomb, suggesting a very sophisticated guidance
system, basically, a hitherto unknown weapon system. By the way of contrast, bringing the
cylinder to the location and breaking it with a small explosive does not require any unknown
technologies.
Somebody at the Russian MOD will be sacked for differing from Putin's opinion of
the downing being due to a "tragic set of circumstances."
Shoigu reserves the "right to retaliate" while Putin is all in favor of forgetting the
incident...
Bodes ill for Shoigu's permanence at this post. No doubt he will be put
in retirement shortly due to "ill health". Unless, of course, he resigns from his
functions in retaliation for Putin's indifference to the fate of the rank and file
Russian
servicemen.
The Zionist Abomination's 100% responsible for the shootdown. Yes, it was tragic as Putin
said, but his defense officials are correct in their assessment and Putin knows that.
Russia's response depends quite a bit on Russian public opinion about the Zionist Abomination
and how it responds. I'd call this Russia's USS Liberty Moment. Given Zionist's murder
Palestinians daily, whatever moral conscious they might retain won't feel much sorrow or
remorse, an attitude likely not understood by Russians, although Russian media informs its
public about Zionist atrocities.
Syrians will also have feelings about this too. I imagine some will wonder why their
stalwart ally seems so feckless with the Zionists, not understanding just how Evil they are.
And I'm certain SAA will be livid at Zionists--and the Outlaw US Empire--for causing this
"mistake."
Ultimately, however, Russia's policy of not attacking Zionist aircraft engaging Syrian
targets has reaped what it sowed. If Russia had used its air defenses against Zionist planes
when they first had opportunities to do so, this "mistake" would never have occurred.
I really hope that Russia will not only denying favors to Israels rotten government. The MSM
now use the IL-20 incident to avoid speaking about the reckless attack itself which is a
blatant violation of international law and carries unimaginable dangers. A Third World War
could start anytime soon. It's an unbearable gamble with the life of Millions.
Some here express that Putin should do this or why he didn't do that. It's easy to express
those opinions from the comforts of home. Never having bullets fly over their heads, or
having to pick up the remains of their comrades, blown to bits right in front of them. And to
confront the families of those killed and explain to them why they will never return. Yes
Putin will never go through those things. But if he should act in such a cavalier manner, he
is finished in all intent and purposes. And from what I can see, Putin doesn't want an all
out war. War is for warmongers who never experience the hell they so desire.
EuraisaFuture is back online and Korybko has 3
short pieces on the incident, which can be accessed from this latest of the 3, which
provides news of a communication by the Zionists expressing condolences of a sort. More will
certainly develop over the rest of the day and week.
@84 It isn't cavalier to publicly call out Israel for what they did--violate international
law by attacking a sovereign nation without provocation, killing Russian soldiers. Stating
this FACT, instead of calling a sequence of unfortunate circumstances, would be the
appropriate action. Then you don't look like a dog with it's tail between it's legs. And then
you force the Israelis to publicly make more and more absurd claims to get out of their
predicament. Then you also publicly announce that you will give Syria all the air defenses it
needs to prevent any further Israeli intrusions into it's airspace. None of this is cavalier.
Make the Israelis stomp their feet and have tantrums and cry about Iran all they want. But
Syria will be closed to them. There is a way to diplomatically, but firmly call out bad
behavior and enforce consequences for it. Putin acting like he's been spanked by Netanyahu
was not the way to do it. It was disgraceful. And unless he turns course rapidly and
decisively he is finished for all intents and purposes. If I were a Russian soldier, I
wouldn't risk my life in the Syrian theater when my commander in chief told the world that
I'm worth less than an Israeli life.
15 Russian soldiers killed by the actions of Israel and the French. Mr. Putin calls this a
Tragic Chain of Events.
Yes,,, the events are allowing the Israeli's to bomb Syria at will,,, over 200 times. The
events are not allowing Syria a decent air defense system that can determine Friend or
Foe.
My question is how much longer are the families of killed Russians and other Russians
going to allow appeasement after appeasement. Exactly what good are all the new weapons
Russia purports and the 25 ships they have in the Med. The West bragged about killing the 50
or so Russian Mercs,,,soon they'll be bragging about the 15 dead Russian active duty
soldiers.
I can sympathize with Mr. Putin not wanting to start a greater war but resolve is just as
important as hardware. He may want to get his forces ready for a larger fight. BUT only if he
intends to fight.
Tricky times...
Thanks, B for the sober summary.
So many unknown unknowns.
Maybe Israeli attacks on Syria will cease altogether now as in the Golan?
How many strikes then out?
1) There was a substantial amount of time between the incident and the time official
statements were made. Undoubtedly there was a bunch of negotiation and deliberation. We have
no way of knowing what was agreed upon and for whose benefit the agreements were made.
2) If they truly wanted to appease Israel, why admit to the incident at all? Militaries
cover up unflattering incidents all the time.
3) What is the statute of limitations for retaliation? If an Israeli plane mysteriously
goes down a week from now, would that be a better or worse response than launching an attack
today?
This is the only time I cannot share b's optimism about Russia's action. For some reason, it
seems that the Apartheid Israel is not only controlling the USA and Europe but also Russia.
It is such a shame that the Russian government is giving so much latitude to Israel. To be
frank, I think the punishment of Israel would come from some Asian nation or the Middle East
itself. This state of affair cannot continue any longer, sooner than later some capable force
would realize that Russia, like Europe and the USA, is nothing but the Zionist playground.
84 - Jose is correct, and there is too much premature armchair saber rattling here.
Putin's job is to protect the RF from another war, improve the lives of his people, sell
gas and wheat to the rubes of the EU and keep Syria from being savaged like was done to Iraq
and Libya.
Russia losing all those citizens in WW2 looks 1ike an accident and unfortunate chain of
events [Putin on loss of IL-20 aircraft] because Hitler invaded Poland.
Tom Welsh | Sep 18, 2018 6:54:28 AM | 8
Has Turkey taken military occupation of Canton Afrin as a result of its understandings with
Russia on the sight of the world? Were not you silent about the legal ground for such a
criminal act by Putin / Erdogan?
Somebody at the Russian MOD will be sacked for differing from Putin's opinion of the
downing being due to a "tragic set of circumstances."
Shoigu reserves the "right to retaliate" while Putin is all in favor of forgetting the
incident...
Bodes ill for Shoigu's permanence at this post. No doubt he will be put in blah blah
blah...
Time will tell.
Posted by: CarlD | Sep 18, 2018 11:53:37 AM | 80
Don't hold your breath waiting for Putin to 'correct' Shoigu.
Putin does diplomacy. Shoigu does Trouble (with a capital T).
I reluctantly admit this event & Putin's reaction are ominous
I have been waiting with bated breath for the other shoe to drop regarding Russia/China's
involvement in the NWO, and sadly this event just might be it
Until now the whole 3D chess thing worked as an excuse to be patient
But this is indeed Russia's USS Liberty moment, and he is sounding a lot like LBJ in his
handling of it
He could have said nothing, and let the MoD statements stand, and let Netanyahoo &
Israel squirm while the incident is thoroughly investigated. It would have cost Putin nothing
to do so IMHO, and would have had a sobering influence on the guilty party(s). But his
statement excuses everyone, and let's them off the hook, free to offend again, which detracts
from the where the spotlight should be: Israel's repeated, flagrant, unprovoked attacks on
Syria
To all those who can't understand the fact that Putin is so agreeable to Israel;
Guess who are the oligarchs supporting him - Jewish Russians as well the Jewish
electorate.
On the other other side of the coin - how many Russian Jews live and vote in Israel.Those who
did vote plumped largely for President Vladimir Putin.It take two to tango.
FWIW: Some 12,000 Russian citizens living in Israel voted at 14 polling stations across
the country -- out of 120,000 Israelis who were eligible to vote in the Russian
election.
Will MOA change the Headline: Russia has now backed down saying Israel did not shoot down the
Russian plane
(cause "it was all an accident")
b - be honest, and change the headline please.
"In less than 24 hours Moscow has gone from accusing Israel of the shootdown of a Russian
jet in a "deliberate provocation," to striking a far more conciliatory tone with Russian
president Vladimir Putin calling the incident the "result of a chain of tragic
circumstances."
And where are all the cucks praising Russian-Israeli cooperation?
Guys, people all over forums are laughing at Russia. I wonder what's next? Israel or the
US "mistakingly" bombing a russian base and killing soldiers there? And then the cucks crying
how "tragic" the "mistake" it was?
CarlD | Sep 18, 2018 11:53:37 AM | 80
Right!
Putin does not gamble his relations with Israel. Hor him Israel is a much & more
important than the surrounding all Arab countries, because its networks represents the
world's financial, political, military, scientific and intelligence depth. In addition, there
are 1. 5 million Israeli russian speaking citizens.
I read an excellent post on SouthFront that I think is worth posting here:
" John Brown • 2 hours ago
This deal with Erdogan is better than I thought, as the Russian army will enter Idlib in
large numbers escorted by the Turkish army without even having ot fight any battles at
all.
This is why Israel downed the Russian military transport plane to try to wreck this deal
which is huge victory for Syria.
The S-200 was fired at the F-16 earlier which drew the missile out towards the IL-20, then
the F-16 kept the IL-20 in a line-of-sight between it and the missile, probably till the
missile was out of range of identifying friend or foe, and used the heat signature to kill
the nearest thing..
The deal also helps Russia and Syria by Erdogan is giving them a shield to free the rural
areas of Latakia Idlib and Homs which they would have to do first any way. The Oct 15
deadline gives the Russians plenty of time to bomb the crap out of the militants. The buffer
zone will also be territory Syria won't have to fight for as the Israeli terrorists will have
to pull back and Russia has more time to greatly strengthen Syrian air defenses.
The fact that Israel attacked today in Latakia in a temper tantrum proves this was a good
deal to make for Syria. If the militants don't cooperate, they get hammered anyway. Nothing
to lose. A very smart move by Putin again as well as Erdogan. I am sure China is helping
financially by helping Turkey out with USSA Israeli sanctions and to get out from under the
IMF."
"I don't believe this attack had anything to do with the Idlib agreement. Just another
Israeli attack on Syria."
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 18, 2018 8:42:21 AM | 31
"Russia has its own S-400 systems defending Latakia, so it can defend itself and doesn't
need Syria's S-200s.
They would have been watching the Israeli F-16s on radar, and then they get a phone call
saying an attack is happening in one minute. Russia must have said "OK", because they didn't
blow the F-16s out of the sky. All they have to say to Israel is "Next time it will NOT be
OK." and Israel will have to stop it's invasions.
The hairy-chested Americans here are calling Putin weak, but he can't afford to make any
over-reaching mistakes, and all decent, responsible human beings are glad of that. Do you
want to have WW3 just to show how much "balls" you've got?"
Posted by: Palloy | Sep 18, 2018 10:09:01 AM | 54
"STRONG IS NOT WHO FIGHTS WARS, STRONG IS WHO AVOIDS WAR."
Posted by: venice12 | Sep 18, 2018 10:09:18 AM | 55
"Quite an infestation of pro-Israeli trolls today, much more than usual. I guess they're
trying to put over a point."
Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 18, 2018 10:19:40 AM | 58
It seems that most agree with my assessment that Russian policy is primarily at fault as I
wrote @81. There's really no avoiding that fact, especially for Russians, which is likely to
act like a stick stuck in the throat. The Zionists offer help with an "investigation" of the
event, which is pure BS as the event's already been investigated, the facts revealed, and the
responsible party and its criminal motive named. I'm sure numerous members of Syria's General
Staff are privately--perhaps--saying "we told you so" regarding Russia's non-engagement
policy. Maybe even Assad too.
Need to see Russian language media and Duma member reactions as Putin will need to address
them. I wonder if the Kremlin Security Council discussed how they'd respond to such an event
as another shootdown was very likely to occur.
On the question: Would having the S-300 system made any difference? Only if it had
previously been used successfully to down Zionist aircraft and thus become seen as a credible
deterrent to such attacks. But I doubt in this situation if its targeting system would have
been able to differentiate between the larger and smaller targets.
This is perplexing. While Putin evidently whitewashes the Israeli act of war, he also
dictates a firm message to Israel via MOD Shoigu. Russia used to be more consistent and firm
when it was part of the the socialist USSR. Today everything is about capitalist profit and
"win-win." However, the U.S. population believes it is entitled to the world's resources by
divine right, like Israel, and has indeed viewed itself as the New Israel. Nevertheless, much
of the blame also goes to Iran for exaggerating its influence in Syria and Iraq and thus
playing into Israeli propaganda. Iran has also refused to defend its own assets in Syria and
has deferred to Russia and/or Syria for protection. Hezbollah likes to boast about its
victories but is ineffectual (or more probably unwilling to retaliate) against Israeli use of
Lebanese airspace to attack Syria. Russia is infested with the Zionist lobby and a fifth
column of Christian Zionists who work with George Soros on the left to pass superstitious
anti-gay laws and then attack Russia for foreign-financed "human rights violations," leading
to CIA-backed extremism on the left (Pussy Riot) and right (anti-immigrant white supremacy).
The FSB seems content to facilitate the destruction of its own country; one cannot blame
institutional treason and/or spinelessness on one man (Putin). The bottom line is that "World
War III or bust" has always been the NATO/Israel endgame and is a natural outgrowth of
deep-seated, centuries-long tendencies in Western civilisation. Citizens of the West are
guilty for passively voicing useless resistance against a ruthless oligarchy that only
respects force. If Westerners and their victims are unwilling to take up arms against the
oligarchy (not that I would advocate that), then they shouldn't complain about the ceaseless
wars and corruptions. They should just accept their status as slaves unto death without the
faux protesting.
Thread seems to be full of troll and couch potatoes spewing crap. Putin makes it quite clear
the statement by the Russian military that Israel is responsible is Russia's official
position.
@105 karlof1... did you see what @54 palloy wrote? here it is again that i would like to
emphasize..
"Russia has its own S-400 systems defending Latakia, so it can defend itself and doesn't
need Syria's S-200s.
They would have been watching the Israeli F-16s on radar, and then they get a phone call
saying an attack is happening in one minute. Russia must have said "OK", because they didn't
blow the F-16s out of the sky. All they have to say to Israel is "Next time it will NOT be
OK." and Israel will have to stop it's invasions."
@107 peter au... fully agree.. israel is responsible for this.. anything else is
obfuscation!
What seemed like a big mistake by Israel has, in the space of a few hours, been turned into a
victory for Israel and a humiliation for Russia courtesy of the Russian president. I don't
think Putin is going to live this down. He looks weak and hesitant. Netanyahu just punched
him in the mouth and he's slunk off to a corner, his reputation as a tough guy shot to
pieces. While he has done a great job redeveloping Russia clearly his time has come. I don't
believe this is about the Israeli 5th column. It's more about how Israel manages to bend all
politicians to its will. All except Kennedy of course who had been well schooled in such
matters by his father. And which is why he and his brother had to be taken out. Nixon was a
borderline case which is why he only got Watergated.
There also seems to be a concerted propaganda effort by the MSM to claim that Russia
supports Israel's attacks on alleged Iranian infrastructure in Syria, including Lebanese
Hezbollah. The New York Times is asserting that Russian restraint has facilitated hundreds of
Israeli airstrikes on Syria over the past year, and goes on to aver that Israel and Russia
closely coordinate activities to limit Iranian influence in Syria. The MSM clearly hope to
drive a wedge between Russia and its regional partners, even though equal or greater blame
should go to Iran for its own hesitancy to confront Israel. Hezbollah could have easily used
its ever-growing post-2006 expertise to target Israeli electronic and air assets over Lebanon
but has not done so, though Israel always utilises Lebanese (or Jordanian) airspace to attack
Syria. Everyone likes to blame Putin but lets Iran, Syria, and the rest of the Russian
military/diplomatic establishment off the proverbial hook. Besides, Hezbollah has not done
itself any favours by promoting anti-Semitic "Jews-control-the-world" canards on its al-Manar
TV channel, which only discredits the otherwise worthy cause of anti-Zionism and only plays
into hard-right Zionist hands. Bashar al-Assad, for his part, made numerous flawed efforts to
appease Israel and the West in the years prior to the 2011 intervention. He privatised
certain sectors of the economy; allowed Syria's arch-enemy, the pro-Zionist Muslim
Brotherhood (Hamas), to set up offices; and in general tried to compensate for his
inferiority and lack of experience. When his father Hafez died in 2000, even the MSM paid
grudging respect, something they have not done to Bashar. Bashar, like Gaddafi, Khrushchev,
and other revisionists, was always trying to abandon the pan-Arab, anti-Zionist, socialist
agenda of his father and seek "peaceful coexistence" with the West. Yet everyone blames
Putin. Sigh...
@P36 jackrabbit... i have a few problems with the quote from you below.. first off, it
suggests that the path syria-russia-iran has taken to regain syria could have been done
differently and more effectively.. that is a 64,000 question that ignores a number of events
that could or might have happened along the way to change everything at the place syria is
now.. so, i disagree with you on this and think banding all the 'moderate headchoppers' and
families in idlib was a smart move and one that is still being worked out.. pat lang was
wrong on this from day one and doen't look at more right at this point as i see it..
"Pat Lang said that R+6 should have moved to take Idlib after Aleppo. He has now been
proven right."
@ james it was the same in the leadup to the southwest offensive - trolls swamping the
threads saying Russia had sold out Syrian ect and many of the regulars joining the troll
chorus.
Vladimir Putin calls it a "tragic mistake". This was a deliberate provocation that made fools
out of the Russian side for allowing the Israeli attacks on Syria. Russian servicemen die and
Putin stands with the Israeli provocateurs, ridiculous.
Segy Shoigu - "The head of the Russian defense Ministry reported that it had informed the
defense Minister of Israel Avigdor Lieberman that Russia will not leave unanswered actions of
the Israeli air force in Syria, which killed Russian soldiers."
Putin - "Our attitude towards this tragedy is set forth in a statement by our Defence
Ministry, and has been fully coordinated with me."
You are probably right. Hindsight is 50-50 and this hasn't fully played out.
My point larger point is just that if Putin had been more distrustful of Erdogan, then
maybe he would've done things differently. If Erdogan doesn't keep his part of the bargain
that has just been struck and never relinquishes Idlib, then Putin will have lost his Turkish
gamble. It's already looking pretty dicey.
Some counter this view by saying that Putin is "playing the long game". I disagree. The
Empire has awoken and is defending its hegemonic vision. This is a 'race' (at times a game of
chicken) that neither side can afford to lose.
Yes, what the cause of this attitude is is hard to say, some post above mention israel
lobby in Russia.
Bullies shouldnt be met with acceptance, if you are a leader of big power like Russia and
someone cause the deaths of 20 people from your army, you cant just say, it was a
mistake.
The downing of the Russian plane was premeditated.
Most likely, the holo-biz 'survivors' used electronic rerouting, which the Russians should
have done long time ago against the nest of the bloody Bolshevik progeny and supremacists
madmen like Miliekovski (Bibi) and the former night-club bouncer Avi Lieberman.
The Jewish Fifth Column in Russia should feel the heat. Their Israeli relatives and best
friends are guilty of the premeditated murder of Russians.
The Jewish Power in action:
https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/09/nato-warships-amassed-by-syria-just-before-attack-on-lattakia/
"Combat vessels from the Second Standing NATO Maritime Group (NATO Maritime Group 2) moved
closer to Syria's borders on the 16th of September, according to monitoring data from Western
naval forces. In retrospect, we can see this sudden buildup as related to the
French/US/Israeli strike on Lattakia and the downing of the Russian il-20 aircraft carrying
14 Russian soldiers
In particular, the eastern Mediterranean is now being patrolled by the Canadian Navy frigate
HMCS Ville de Quebeс, by the Greek navy ship Elli and by the Dutch Navy frigate HNLMS
De Ruyter, the latter being the group's flagship.
In addition to the aforementioned vessels, three American destroyers (USS Carney, USS Ross
and USS Winston S. Churchill) are already in the region, as well as the USS 6th Fleet Admiral
USS Mount Whitney. The waters are also being patrolled by at least three Los Angeles-class US
nuclear submarines. According to Western observers, the armament of the current US naval
group in the Mediterranean includes more than 200 Tomahawk cruise missiles."
The agreement on Idlib reminds me of the Minsk agreements, of 2015.
When the Minsk agreement was signed, many people called Putin a traitor and a weakling for
abandoning the Lugansk and Donetsk republics. However looking back over the last 3 1/2 years
we can see the true sense of the Minsk agreement.
1. Legitimization of the republics.
2. Commitment of Ukraine to federalization, which Ukraine had no intention of carrying
out.
3. Tying the hands of the West because of 'The Minsk Agreement'.
Since then the conflict has been frozen. And every day Ukraine gets weaker and its Western
owners throw away more money and credibility on a lost cause.
The Idlib agreement looks similar. What are likely results of this agreement?
1. Consolidating the exclusion of the U.S. from western Syria.
2. Positioning Turkey as the actor with responsibility to fight the U.S. coalition's Jihadis
in Idlib. When combined with the situation with the Kurds, it consolidate's Turkey's position
as a Russian ally and American foe.
3. Opening up transportation routes linking Damascus with Aleppo.
4. Freezing the conflict while a diplomatic solution is achieved, without the participation
of the U.S. coalition.
It looks like a good deal for Syria and Russia. No wonder Israel was so furious.
Regarding Putin's reaction to the Il-20 downing, it looks like vintage Putin to me. He
will not make a show of it, but will address the issue firmly, with action, not words, but on
the terms and timing of his choice.
All of the commentators on this blog who denigrate Putin do not properly appreciate recent
history.
@T and all the experts. Russia is in a very difficult position. It has absolutely treacharous
enemies quite apart from supposed allies on all sides. The U.S.A. is even trying to destroy
Orthodox Christianity to further isolate Russia. I have no doubt that there has been some
very intense diplomacy behind the scenes. Remember, vengence is a dish served cold, the
western attitude for immediate gratification, e.g. Russia taking immediate and probably
recklessly stupid retalitatory action won't serve either their or Syria's agendas, doesn't
mean that action won't be taken. Putin is only human, we all make mistakes, if the situations
were reversed, the U.S.A. Wouldn't even make it to 3rd world level.............
I understand what you and other like-minded individuals are saying...
There are some in the blogosphere, like Brandon Smith, who have been quite accurate
regarding how current geopolitical events have unfolded, although admittedly I had trouble
with his viewpoint on Russia/China being part of the charade
And then there are others, like Jim Stone, God bless him, who has blinders on regarding
Trump, in whom I believe his faith is misguided
I try to listen to and read many sources, draw conclusions from that and mete out my trust
accordingly & sparingly, as I try to navigate my own place in this crazy world
I gave Putin the benefit of the doubt for the longest time, biting my tongue on many
occasions & to be happily proven wrong, and I wish to be proven wrong here again...
*IF* Putin indeed said, "it was only an accident", then the optics of such are not good,
as they excuse evil, and undermine the good and those who are in harms way.
Other than that, totally enjoy your comments & those of others... as they say, "iron
sharpens iron"
I studied the incident of the downed ILYUSHIN in LATAKIA, SYRIA, and after confirming the
location of the ISRAELI JETS, when they fired their missiles, from multiple journalist
sources, South East of Cyprus with a direct line of sight with the AKROTIRI BRITISH NAVAL SPY
BASE, it seems that the Israeli Air Force has the following technology which according to my
oppinion was responsible for the downing of the Russian airlane: FUEL ADDITIVES WITH ELEMENTS
THAT CAN LATCH ON TO METALIC OR OTHER SURFACES UPON BEING SPRAYED IN THE ATMOSPHERE, ACTING
AS FALSE TARGET/FALSE SIGNAL IDENTIFIER. If the Russian plane flew through the wake/plumes
the Israeli jets left behind with deliberate manuevers, in order for the plume to be
intercepted by Russian flight path, then you can have some type of technology to make use of
this extra signal/return multiplier to confuse S-200 Syrian air defense not programmed to
counter such a threat, therefore electronically "painting" the Russian plane as an "Israeli
jet". I believe that other enablers were used, the type of weather control/microwave for the
creation of and or handling metalic additive plume particles as a standing wavethat can later
could be moved around or dispersed in patterns for a brief amount of time in order to create
a "curtain" of nano material that could latch on to surfaces in order to "paint" them as
targets regardless of what kind of material it is.
That's about the same assessments I've made. At this moment I don't blame the Zionists in
Israel and why should anyone blame them. Putin has allowed freehand to the Zionists and Nato
to attack Syria and Iran often forestalling the progress of his troops and that of his allies
made. Why did Putin and his policy makers think that the Zionist regime attacks was going to
be confined to targets of SAA/Iran/Hezbolah? If he's not going to protect his troops and that
his allies, Putin should quit/withdraw from the Syrian arena and leave the country to it's
fate.
@118 / 123 jackrabbit.. thanks.. i agree with your last line @118.. hard to know what
putin is thinking here, but i am sure he sees the inevitability of what is going on.. their
is no stop to this as i see it.. the whole world is going to be brought into this
conflict..
in the past it was saddam had weapons of mass destruction.. it is now assad has chemical
weapons and is going to gas his people.. basically it is the same pitch and many will go
along with it, for all sorts of different reasons..
international law as practiced by the west is now a complete joke.. for israel to not be
held accountable for it's actions yesterday is to continue with this joke/facade about
international law..
@122 dh-mtl - i agree.. i think the deal is good.. however, no amount of good deals is
going to stop the warmonger nations from pursuing their ambitions in syria as witnessed
yesterday.. israel continues to get a pass for whatever it does, so that it can claim the
golan heights or whatever whacked in the head thing it is thinking here..
"SARH (semi-active radar homing seeker) missiles require tracking radar to acquire the
target, and a more narrowly focused illuminator radar to "light up" the target in order for
the missile to lock on to the radar return reflected off target. The target must remain
illuminated for the entire duration of the missile's flight ."
So what are the chances that s-200 "...missile was aimed at the F-16 its seeker likely
mistook the larger radar reflection of IL-20 for the intended target." as is stated in an
article?
Of course a possibilities are endless, in theoretical domain. But it would require sloppy
operators (unlikely that would be a Syrians in this case) to mistook the airplane loaded with
all kind of electronics for an interceptor.
"Netanyahoo can forget about any further such 'favors' from Moscow." and "Russia will
certainly take revenge for the Israeli provocation, but will likely do so in the political
arena." Nonsense. The Israelis as usual have the upper hand and will play Russia as their
little bitch. Putin is no match for Netanyahu and the IDF. The Russians always come across as
a slow-witted giant who nobody really likes or respects. The Israelis always have better
strategy and better connections. Look at the USS Liberty attack. Or look at 9-11 which was a
Mossad operation, and how that 'terror attack' played so very well for the Zionists (at
America's expense!). The Israelis are masters at false flag attacks to frame another target,
be it playing Palestinian terrorist to justify more attacks on them; dressing up as Arab ISIS
terrorists to further paint Muslims as evildoers who must be crushed; or in this instance
getting Syria to shoot down the Russian plane then blame it all on the Syrians. Israel can
pretty much do as it pleases over Syria, and nobody can stop them: they fly wherever they
want, blowing up buildings, airports, military outposts etc and nobody so much as lifts a
finger to stop them. When will somebody grow some balls and seriously kick some Israeli ass?
Maybe never? Holy crap.
Putin won't lift a finger against his moneymen in Tel Aviv. Most of Russia's moneymen have
homes in Tel Avi. He has a soft spot for them.
For starters, the whole deal between the Russian military and the IDF was a BS one. I'm
surprised the Syrian military command didn't make noise about it. Basically, the two
militaries agreed for Russia to turn a blind eye on any Israeli military agression on Syria.
With friends like this, who needs enemies.
I sometimes think Syria/Russia's alliance restricts Syria's ability to deal decisively
against the IDF. I hope now this incident changes that. But I won't hold my breathe.
Bibi will fly over to Moscow and moan about some Iranian presencc in Syria(which Russia
doesn't like, btw) and all will be forgotten.
Syria seriosuly NEEDS to look elsewhere for her air defence needs. Heck, even Turkey's
getting S-400 but Syrian can't have it because....reasons.
I think the real target of israel was not Ilyushn but Putin, considering all the weird posts
that flooded the internets, blaming Putin for everythink.
Iranians calimed that israeluses heavy weather control on them, the other day, I DIDN'T SEE
ANYONE EVEN REPOSTING THAT STUFF.Such hypocrisy in this world...
How can the Russians provide AD to Syria without incorporating automatic friend-or-foe
recognition that allows only hostile aircraft to be targeted?
Was the relevant transponder in the IL-25 not working for some reason? Was it a software
glitch? Was the Syrian equipment so old that it could not provide this safety measure without
further modification? Or did the Syrians turn off this feature deliberately because they did
not understand how to use it?
The answers will probably never be publicly known but the Israelis have shot themselves in
the foot here by violating their de-confliction agreement with Russia.
His take on the blogosphere is spot on but also his theory that and american Israeli
faction in Israel engineered the situation to move deliberately put Israel on bad terms with
Russia might have something.
Israel has never joined the US sanctions against Russia and Netanyahu told Trump to stand
down in southwest Syria after Russia had worked its diplomacy.
I believe there is also a large voting block of ethnic Russians in Israel that may be a
little pissed off about the shootdown.
i doubt that the Syrians handle this given the type of aircraft involved. IL-25 is
allegedly shot down just off the Syrian coast where Russian have state of the art radars. In
addition bunch of naval ships similarly equipped.
Well, with 136 comments as I write, this thread took remarkably little time to scan, but it
did involve seeing who was the poster before reading. You can always tell when military
actions are the topic because the troll budget goes up. When it's Israel to blame, there's no
limit to the lies.
I do wish people would follow the Internet's earliest learned lesson - do not feed trolls,
because they make more points when you engage, and all they want is to fill the quota. Learn
to ignore.
Good to see some of the regular and proven commenters coming in now. Lochearn at #110, is
that really you, or an impostor?
Israel has crossed a line. Russia had every reason to trust that line, the same as we
don't check our alarms every 10 minutes but simply wait for them to go off.
Anyone who believes that Russia will forget or forgive the deliberate death of 15 Russians
has no idea who they're dealing with.
The responses (there will be more than one) will be whatever Russia decides is best for
its interests.
forgot to check for typos before posting my last comment.
kral 134 From what I read some time ago the S-200 warhead has a kill range of 150 meters
and is armed with a proximity fuse. If that is right, the missile would only need to pass
with 150 meters of the Russian plane while tracking the Israeli planes or missiles to take it
out.
Indeed. The brilliance of the Israeli strategy of provocation is that it will make the
domestic political scene in Russia increasingly difficult for Putin to navigate in Syria. The
more often Russian troops are killed or injured, the more quickly one half of the Russian
populace demands action or withdrawal; the more they demand it, the harder it will be for
Putin to maintain their support. For Israel and others are betting that he will never
actually retaliate. They are creating a situation which is designed to make Russia's presence
in Syria an impossible political situation for Putin himself.
Another interesting point to note. Russia, Iran and Turkey recently had a meeting on the
situation in Syria. The agreed to get rid of the rats in Idlib. Suddenly Putin turns around
and makes a deal with ONLY Turkiye.
It's becoming clear that Turkiye , Russia and (behind the scenes)Israel, are on the same side
when it comes to Iran's presence in Syria. Syrians themselve don't have a say in their own
country anymore.
The Syrian army now needs permission from a foriegn power to liberate their own land.
Turning the other cheek only invites more slaps.
At this rate, Syria may well forget about Idlib. Turkey won't leave. The US won't leave
either. Welcome to bulkinazation 101.
My statement was based on that "if", which was rhetorical
But as Caitlin Johnstone aptly put it recently, unless we can embrace something with one
of our 5 senses, we have no choice but to trust, or not, as we all engage in a "shared,
consensual narrative". The trick is discerning the correct narrative, and that, in part, is
why I am here
BTW no need for vulgarities - it undermines your argument
It is very unfortunate that Putin said what HE said because not saying anything
would have been way better than what he said.
I was very unhappy when Pres Putin dismissed the killing of Russian Mercs by
the US by saying that they were "unauthorized individuals", if I am not mistaken.
But lets face it, these were Russians! Working for the good side, at that. Wasn't
their unnecessary deaths worth some solidarity?
Why should Putin be more sensitive to the "plight" of Russian Israelis than to that
of these Russian citizens that became soldiers of fortune through necessity?
I do admire Putin, but I have to grasp the reality that his compass shows a different
North than ours who would like to see the Beast reined in.
What will Zhirinowsky say or think when he hears Putin's statement? What will the
rank and file servicemen think? How will the Douma react?
Truly, there Putin is on his own. Either he doesn't realize how much his words are
hurting him, or he is a man that can swim against the current and demonstrate
great courage.
Some say Netanyahu and Putin are friends. It must have come about recently
because on Victory day Parade. Putin did distance himself from Benyamin.
He was definitely rude to Netanyahu.
This deconfliction line between Israel and Russia's militaries point to the fact
that Israel has been bombarding Syria with the blessings of the Kremlin all
these times.
Iranians are obviously not well seen by the Kremlin and should not count on
the Russians as allies. If Russia knows every time an Israeli attack is going
to occur on Syria and looks the other way so as not to hinder Israel destructive
work, how much of an ally are they to Bashar el Assad?
Their presence is therefore limited to fighting the Takfiris and other potential
threats to the Russian Motherland. Thinking that it is better to fight them
away from home.
Jordan, Israel, Turkey, the US, France, England, Saudi Arabia, Qatar et tutti quanti
may abuse Syria ad libitum and ad nauseam. This is of no concern to the Russians.
Seen with these glasses, then all Putin's actions and omissions become predictable.
Russia will retaliate only if it is directly and unequivocally attacked. Not as a
collateral
casualty but as a primary target.
This may hurt our feelings as we see it as treason to the cause. But we must remember
that Russia has it's priorities and aims.
Dear all, guys & girls, дамы и
господа,
first of all let me express my deepest condolences for the tragic loss of the 15 Russian
SPECIALISTS who perished as the result of the Il-20 shootdown. I want to stress that I'm
deeply surprised, shocked, and disturbed, not only by this horrendous provocation, but also
by the incredibly *inaccurate* and *dismissive* description of what happened and of the
ultimate victims of this whole tragedy.
Why are these 15 Russian casualties summarily described just as "servicemen" or
"crewmen"?
These were not "simple"
прапорщики or privates - what we
are all forgetting is that these 15 servicemen were:
It literally takes *decades* in order to induct, train, and build the skills and
experience of such highly prized military personnel. Merely calling them "crewmen" or
"servicemen" is highly inappropriate and inaccurate - let's therefore pay due respect to
these fallen - as these were not "ordinary soldiers"!
Next - the loss of the Il-20 is nothing short of *devastating* for both the Russians and
the Syrians. That plane was a specialized electronic warfare asset regularly patrolling (and
securing) the surrounding airspace - and...Il-20s don't grow on trees!!! Let me underscore
this - the loss of this aircraft is an absolutely *devastating* loss that will cost the
Russians and the Syrians dearly - notwithstanding the fact that Israel certainly won't offer
any compensation for this human and material loss.
Final points and hard questions (and I haven't seen many questions being raised about this
so far....happy to hear/read your take on this!):
1) The Russians saw the Israeli F-16 way before they got so close to Latakia and to the
Il-20. Why did they allow the Israelis to get *so dangerously close* to their prized asset -
the Il-20 - and the the Khmeimim airbase?
2) What about the Russian EW-systems? While it is understandable that the Il-20 was on a
landing approach and maybe not actively using its EW/radar systems - what about the other
defensive assets deployed in the area? What about the Khmeimim-based EW systems like the
Krasukha? What about the array of surveillance/tracking radar systems that Russia
operates?
3) Why was the Il-20 not escorted??? I thought that after the downing of the Su-24 by
Turkey, the Russians had decided to mandatorily escort major air assets such as bombers,
tankers, surveillance planes etc? How come the flight of 4x F-16s could approach the Il-20
unimpeded with no interception/shadowing taking place beforehand?
4) What about Russian-Syrian coordination??? We know that the S-200s operated by the
Syrians had been upgraded/serviced - this *must* have included the surveillance/tracking
radars, as well as the IFF systems. So how could the Syrian SAM crews even fire the missile?
Even if the Israelis claim that they informed the Russians just short of a minute or so
before the strike, the Russians *must have seen - AND - tracked* the flight of the F-16s well
in advance and even from their take-off, so they *should have informed* the Syrians.
5) What about Israeli EW-capabilities? Are Israeli F-16s now equipped with systems that
allow them to fool Russian & Syrian radars and EW systems to the point where they can fly
and approach a highly hostile area literally *undisturbed*, and be so confident that missiles
fired at them will miss the target and hit the "friendlies" instead???
6) What about the role of the French here? What about the "Auvergne" frigate? Did it fire
any munitions as indicated by the Russians? If yes, then why and at which target? Shouldn't
Russia lodge an official complaint and demand explanations from Paris? Did the Israelis
coordinate the strike in any form or way with the French?
Food for thought folks...we all need to get to the bottom of this - too many questions -
and too few answers...
My message to the Russian (political) leadership: LISTEN to the Konashenkovs, to the Shoigus,
to the Gerasimovs...and do whatever is necessary to STOP THIS.
'Nuff said.....
Israel broke the bond of trust. They will see in many ways and means that they bought the
S-300 for Syria and eventually, a NO FLY over Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Iraq and Turkey. The
S-400s will be linked and all anyone in a military aircraft has to do is call and ask for
permission from Moscow/MOD/VVP. It's coming. Russia is in Syria to stay for 50+ years. And
thus, it and its neighbors will be under the Russian missile defenses, integrated as a whole
network.
In this Levant neighborhood, all the leaders want peace. Only Israel wants war.
The ME is wider and includes the psychos and sociopaths of Israel and Saudi Arabia and
UAE. They want proxy war and US Centcom wars. But Russia has taken Turkey away and soon Iraq
will be removed from US hegemony, also.
The Chinese are finishing an exercise as "ally" of Russia in Vostok 2018. They are seeing
and feeling how Russia fights wars. This may give them the confidence to militarily join
anchoring the ME for OBOR Silk Road development. They have much at stake in securing a peace.
And just may join with a stout presence of the PLA. They should and now they might finally
come.
The Chinese will be operating the port at Haifa, so it means they hold stakes in Syria and
Iraq as well as Israel. In their own commercial interests and in President Xi's dream of BRI
they have to invest a military presence. The time is perfect.
They intend to invest billions in reconstructing Syria. They should build their own
military infrastructure base in Syria.
Their work with Russia in Vostok 2018 will make their presence inside Syria feel very
comfortable.
well you go and let israel attack 'iranian' targets inside Syria some 200 times in two years
or so, and ya don't expect any of your forces to ever get caught in the cross-fire?.....Well,
russia, ya finally got caught.
"....But the ministry said it held Israel responsible because, at the time of the
incident, Israeli jets were attacking Syrian targets and had only given Moscow one minute's
warning, putting the Russian aircraft in danger of being caught in cross-fire..."
He can't talk about secret accommodation for Israel - but he can end it .
<> <> <> <> <> <>
The 'accomodation' stemmed from Putin's view that Russia had no interest in getting
involved in the Israel-Iran conflict. A wise choice because drawing Russia into that fray
could lead to WWIII.
Who is directly responsible for the downing of the plane is irrelevant. Israel clearly
fucked with Russia by not giving them adequate warning.
would be nice to see Syrian and Russian forces attack Israel launching sites. AA defenses not
nearly sufficient. Especially when most targets are cheap cruise missiles and not expensive
aircraft.
My apologies. Moon Over Alabama did not delete my post -- it was on the second page. I guess
my emotions are running high. If I could delete the 2nd post I would.
Israel controls Russia as much as it does the USA. Putin is a philo-semite. The Chief Rabbi
of Russia is known as Putins Rabbi , he is from Brooklyn, a rabbi of the same orthodox sect
as Kushner, Felix Sater and a couple of Putins biggest oligarch suporters . Many of Russias
top oligarchs also have Israeli passports. Putins already met Bibi 3 times this year and
trade and tourism between the 2 countries is booming with more than 60 flights from Israel to
Moscow daily. A Russian academic is being tried for holocaust denial for daring to question
some of the numbers. The media in Russia is just as pro-Israel as in US. The powerful Israeli
lobby is global.
Bottom line, IMO there will be no revenge taken other than a token response to appease
Russias military. Putting aside his pro Israeli stance, Putin knows an attack on Israel is
the same as an attack on the Israeli controlled US . Not going to risk that for Syria, not
for 14 soldiers. Thats just being smart. Weak, but smart.
Only thing Russian should do is place snipers all over the place and enable the Arabs to kill
15 Israeli soldiers. Once that is done, no more bullets. Blood demands blood. Russia has to
punish the Jews somehow, if not the bear is WEAK.
Indeed no response will be given - this is probably already buried in Russia.
Putin admitted that there as only a "mistake", only problem Putin will run into these
"mistakes" unless he take pre cautions (i.e. S300) to defend SAA/Russian army, or how many
will die next time? Could he afford it?
So it appears to be true Bibi Netanahau send a Yom Kippur warning to Israel's
foes in Syria with "accomplices" Russia, Turkey and Iran.
At the same time, Israel is constantly working to prevent our enemies from arming
themselves with advanced weaponry. Our red lines are as sharp as ever and our determination
to enforce them is stronger than ever.
This week we will mark, in synagogues and cemeteries, Yom Kippur, the holiest day of
our people, and the day on which, 45 years ago, we absorbed a bloody attack that cost us
thousands of victims.
I thought Syria's goal was to redeem its territory.
From whom? Syrians? With 5 million refugees outside of Syria?
From a nation of 22 million. With 3 million refugees in Turkey alone.
Zachary F Goldberg , Sep 18, 2018 5:06:53 PM |
link
If Israel did not attack Syria without any legal pretext, none of this would have happened.
Why do the USA and its NATO allies stand by and watch as Israel commits so many acts of
naked aggression?
Because USA and NATO are wholly owned subsidiaries of Israel. Besides, the USA does not
sit idly by - it actively supports Israel.
Thanks to karlof1 for the 3 links, to PeterAU1 for the two links to Russian response to the
mishap, also to Grieved for reminding us how seriously Russia will be assessing a response,
and b, of course, for bringing the matter before us in his always competent posting.
Here is a translation of part of what Putin had to say:
"...First of all, I would like to express condolences to the families of the dead.
As for your comparison with the downing of our plane by a Turkish fighter, this was a
different situation. The Turkish fighter deliberately shot down our aircraft.
In this case, it is more a chain of tragic circumstances because an Israeli fighter did
not down our aircraft. It goes without saying that we must get to the bottom of this. Our
attitude towards this tragedy is set forth in a statement by our Defence Ministry, and has
been fully coordinated with me.
As for reciprocal action, this will be primarily aimed at ensuring additional security for
our military and our facilities in the Syrian Arab Republic. These steps will be seen by
everyone..."
Because of the phrasing Putin has carefully used, I would place considerable emphasis on
the fact that only one minute warning was given by the Israelis of this dangerous situation
occurring in the region of a busy Syrian airport such as Latakia has to be. Israel certainly
knows that Russian planes are using that airfield. Why only a one minute warning? would be my
question. And from the answer to that would flow measures taken to avoid the occurrence which
would detract considerably from Israel's freedom to operate in that manner in that region in
future. Whether that will be Russia's only response is at the moment a matter of speculation.
We shall have to wait and see.
Lets have some patience, and in the interim it wouldn't hurt to pray for peace. And also
for the families of those airmen.
From whom?
Have you missed that Idlib is occupied from the Syrian state?
U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura said there was a high concentration of foreign fighters
in Idlib, including an estimated 10,000 fighters designated by the U.N. as terrorists, who
he said belonged to the al-Nusra Front and al Qaeda.
Must agree with you about the loss of such invaluable specialists. You asked excellent
questions. Presumably the Zionist jets were over international waters and may have been their
often in the past without incident. The lack of escort presence is important, but we don't
know current RuAF SOP. Did Russian air defense assets open fire? Some locals say yes; some
say no. Only Russia knows for certain; I don't recall them saying so in their briefing. Some
of your questions I've already addressed in previous postings, so won't comment on them
again.
However, I will reiterate that besides Zionist aggression ultimately being at fault,
Russian policies share some of the blame. For example, what legal difference is there really
between a Zionist air raid and a terrorist rocket barrage? Both are illegal, terror attacks
on the Syrian populace. Russia stated its reason for intervening was/is to stamp out
terrorists and their ism. Zionism is one of those isms as it's based on the application of
terror; a look into Zionist history proves that--even Zionists admit they're terrorists!!!
This thus begs the question: Why the double standards--something Putin and Russians have
stated they abhor on numerous occasions--in response to Islamic Terrorism and Zionist
Terrorism? That's my question for Mr Putin. If I could, I'd ask him directly.
I have no idea where that comment came from. Thanks for letting me know and for seeing it
was not the sort of thing I would write. I wrote a while ago that I had been hacked.
Yes, those of us who have been here a long time now are not suddenly going to dismiss Mr
Putin for one remark. I think it's his style to understate, to row back a bit from strong
language, but that doesn't mean there won't be consequences for this action. I looked at
Saker's blog and he is very critical as he has been for some time now - hence the link with
Paul Craig Roberts. Fort Russ, which is run by Joaquin Flores took issue with Saker. I find
Joaquin an interesting intellect. I thought his analysis of Turkeys plans for Idlib quite
brave in the sense of forecasting (please Google fort russ this is how Syria will seize
Idlib).
I think Israel was furious its hopes for a confrontation of the Syrian alliance with
Turkey in Idlib had been dashed by an agreement the contents of which we are still not quite
sure.
J. Flores @ FortRuss agrees with you in an article to be posted after the site he edits
recovers from an attack:
Written within the context of the disinfo wars the author analyses more fully in the yet
to be posted article:
Excerpted:
"Secondly, readers will take note of the inclusion of the French denial. This French
denial is bizarre and entirely out of place, since no one accused France.
. . .
The French 'early denial' when no accusation was made, means that the West had planned for
France to be blamed, the French authorities were prepared to carry out their script and deny
the accusations that the Russians were 'obviously' going to make.
Then something happened, and Russia didn't make that accusation. But there were the French
authorities, going forward with the script, and in an incoherent way which really exposes
what they were up to, and tells us all quite clearly what was planned, and yet all the while
Russia doesn't at all blame France. Ridiculous, brilliant, absurd.
. . .
The aim of the Atlanticists is to have France do it, have France be blamed, and to cause a
massive public relations problem, that Putin would have to respond to, by naming, blaming,
the French, and seeking to hold them accountable. How will the French and Russian publics,
respectively, take this? Not well, and it doesn't work well for the Eurasia project either.
Macron will eventually be out, and it's politically near-impossible to hold the leader of a
country, although temporary, responsible without blaming a whole people for something. Once
you throw in the work of French media spin-doctors, they will absolutely succeed in twisting
it not as a Macron problem but a problem that Russia has with blaming France and all the
French by extension.
. . .
The IFF system, and the situation in Syria, is not at all like the situation in the
Georgian war ten years ago, when at the time there were some official Russian reports of
there being difficulties separating Georgian from Russian aircraft. This is because MiGs are
identical to MiGs. IFF systems at the time are not the same as today, with integrated
transponders which make auto-locking impossible from the start. The Syrian Army at Lattakia
does not, in reality, operate as a separate army. There, they have what is known as an
integrated command, at least insofar as these issues are concerned. So the SAA couldn't have
attacked or locked onto a Russian plane, because the transponder data in real time that is
part of newer IFF systems actually would mean there would have to be an intentional manual
override over the computerated 'no-lock possible' response the S-200's computer system would
have automatically generated for a Russian plane of any kind.
The S-200 has an extremely high accuracy, not more than a bit different from the S-400 for
a single target, and specifically a target of this size and speed, it would have had to
'miss' the Israeli plane in question, which only has a 10-15% chance of doing, but then
proceed to then actually hit the Russian plane. But not only hit the Russian plane, but
critically so. This is all we can ascertain once we realize that auto-locking without manual
override onto the Russian plane with the IFF transponder in direct connection with the SAA
(Russian joint command) at Lattakia, is practically impossible unless we say there was an
American asset working at the controls of the SAA's Lattakia computer.
. . .
The Putin-Erdogan deal reached yesterday indeed offers the strong probability for Syria to
win without engaging in a needless conflict, and the promises of FUKUS attacks to be
realized. Still, though they were anyhow, for no discernible reason given. Israel and France
simply attacked in response to Turkey's cunning move. So time is on Russia's side.
That the aim of yesterday's surprise attack is punishment for the Turkish 'about face',
which FRN stated as a very likely possible outcome, (for the record), is evident in that
stories from RT and Sputnik reporting on the event had official statements, and not randomly
so, saying that these attacks will not deter or reverse the Turkish-Russian agreement on the
final resolution of Idlib.
What's needed now for the Atlanticists of FUKUS is to damage these relations as much as
possible, Turkey vs. Russia, and Russia vs. France, and to cause Russia to blame France
instead of blaming Israel.
This was a calculation, that Russia would not blame Israel due to the successful media
hologram that Russia created that Israel has an inviolable special relationship (they do not,
to this extent), and that instead that Russia will blame France. They did not expect Russia
to accept the Western MSM Atlanticist narrative that the SAA had shot down the Russian plane
either.
Between blaming France or Israel, the US expected Russia to blame France. Between blaming
Syria or France, the US expected Russia to blame France. Between blaming Syria or Israel, the
US expected Israel to be blamed.
They did not expect this hybrid of 'somewhat' blaming Israel for doing 'tricky stuff' in
the air, the motives being hard to prove or qualify.
If Russia was to avoid an MH-17 situation in reverse, they had to think with agility.
Russia has the physical evidence, the flight data, and the missile launch data. If they were
going to blame France, which was mostly expected, it would have been a UNSC charade, a
General Assembly charade, and a media charade with 'Putin blaming France' and Russia being
accused of having possession of the evidence from which their case is made, and therefore the
evidence being dodgy or even manufactured entirely.
The crash remains of the IL-20 are going to absolutely show that it was hit with a
missile, any fragments etc. required to establish that, will show that's an Aster missile, or
similar, like the missiles used in the S-200's. But they aren't going to show that the impact
is consistent with a small missile carried by Israeli planes, or by gun strafing from an
attack plane.
Apologies: Flores' article - this is how Turkey will seize Idlib. I was overcome by the
intelligence of the hack, copying and pasting things I had said in different contexts.
Meanwhile, some initial results of the Idlib
deal : "Al-Nusra Front, Jaish al-Izza, Islamic Turkistan Party and Hourras Addin refused
the Russian-Turkish deal." That implies they will not withdraw as they're supposed to as
agreement stipulates. So, it appears that unless the Turks can get them to change their mind,
that come Oct 10, they'll be attacked. Oh, as I noted on yesterday's thread on this topic,
related Syrian offensives in the region will continue--the war on the Outlaw US Empire's
terrorists hasn't stopped. Indeed, the intensity of ongoing operations is likely to escalate.
I haven't yet watched Almassian's video linked at the above tweet.
I very much doubt that the Russian leadership will somehow seriously answer Israel. The
spinelessness of Russian politics sometimes simply amaze (it's worth recalling, for example,
the epic with the seizure of Russian diplomatic property by the US authorities - there was no
intelligible answer from Russia, and still(!) there's no answer).
Well, maybe Israel will make some statement that everything that happened is a "pure
accident". Maybe Netanyahu will fly to Putin to talk "like friends". But not more.
Certainly, there will not be a disruption of diplomatic relations with Israel (now many in
Russia call for it), no retaliatory attacks on Israeli forces, nor the withdrawal of Russian
military police from the Golan Heights (who provide there security for the Israeli "zone of
interests"). S-300 ADS complexes will still not be delivered to Syria.
By the way, many "link" this incident with 17 September breakthrough agreements between
Putin and Erdogan. I don't know, maybe there is some sense in this. But I would pay attention
to the other. Against the backdrop of this tragic incident, everyone somehow "suddenly
forgot" the recent extremely important event - the media briefing of the Russian Defense
Ministry in connection with the establishment of the belonging of the missile which shot down
Boeing MH17 in 2014. Russian Ministry of Defense provided more facts, unconditionally
determining the fault of Ukraine for the downed Boeing. Western curators of the Ukrainian
regime were shyly silent, MSM "did not notice" this important news. Look at the first pages
of CNN, BBC, The Guardian, The Telegraph, The New York Times etc... There's not even a word
about the new findings that indicate the direct fault of Ukraine. The tragedy with the downed
Russian plane somehow "very successfully" and "in time" diverted the attention of the "world
community" away from the sensational data provided by the Russian Defense Ministry.
Looking at the flightpaths of the Israeli aircraft and missiles, it seems likely the Russian
plane would not have been in the target radar when the S-200 missiles were launched. The
targets have the flown across behind the Russian aircraft causing it to be illuminated by the
targeting radar after the missiles were launched. According to wikipedia the S-200 travel aT
2.5km per second. At 35km offshore that is a minimum of 14 seconds from launch, most likely
longer depending how far the S200 batteries are from the coast. Plenty of time to pull the
targeting radar across so it also illuminates the Russian plane after missile launch.
Aha! Finally found a partial copy of the Memorandum of Understanding arrived
at in Sochi , which only shows the first 6 points thus its partialness. As noted in
previous comment, the terrorists have already rejected abiding by it, so points 5&6 will
not be undertaken, meaning the SAA's free to begin Idlib Dawn. Any barflies think Turks will
convince terrorists to alter their stance?
China isn't coming to the shit storm without a UN resolution. Far too many chefs in the
kitchen. Besides, the OBOR can always be adjusted to the situation.
Some here express that Putin should do this or why he didn't do that. It's easy to express
those opinions from the comforts of home. Never having bullets fly over their heads, or
having to pick up the remains of their comrades, blown to bits right in front of them. And
to confront the families of those killed and explain to them why they will never return.
Lets ignore for a second keyboard warriors. However always turning second cheek doesnt
work in geopolitics and wars. If not overtly, then covertly Russia should have said to
Israel: Niet! And either MADE SURE that Israel never attacks Syria again (and put Russian
soldiers in harms way), OR provide the means to Syria to defend itself.
Russia hasnt done either. End result? There will be MORE dead Russian soldiers in the
future. Why Israel thinks it can bomb Syria 200x in last few years and get away with it?
Because Russia doesnt allow Syria to defend themselves. Why Israel doesnt bomb Lebanon since
2006? Because they KNOW they would be in the World of hurt if they do. Russia should have
done the same in Syria, but they overplayed "but Israel are our best buds!" hand and got
screwed in the process. If Russia doesnt stop Israel even now, guess what happens next?
Exactly, more dead Russians (and Syrians, Iranians, etc).
Yes, we agree; it's Russian policy that must change.
OT--Korean Summit--
Southfront
provides this report about what's happening North of the DMZ, and provides a glimpse at
what the US-driven propaganda line is as published within RoK. FYI, Moon and wife just
completed a tour of RoK children's hospitals prior to heading North. Please note that Moon
and Kim are on the same page when it comes to dealing with Outlaw US Empire.
Israeli actions in Syria were reckless and dangerous. As well as their support of headchoppers. Revenge is a dish better served
cold. also the question is why Syria air forces fire a rocket in the vicinity of the Russian plane. Are they so stupid that they did
not understand possible consciences?
Notable quotes:
"... Basically, 4 Israeli aircraft were sent on a bombing mission against targets near the Russian facilities in Khmeimim and Tartus (which, by itself, is both stupid and irresponsible). The Israelis *deliberately* did not warn the Russians until less than a minute before the attack took place ..."
"... Typical Israeli "cleverness". ..."
"... the Israeli jet didn't down our aircraft ..."
"... tragic circumstances ..."
"... Perhaps Russian defense systems will now operate in conjunction with Syrian ones as it appears that nothing defended Latakia from IDF and French Nato frigate clearly bent on illegal hostile intent ..."
"... I don't believe in the power of "Fifth column" because Putin could rally the people. But it's wrong to lie and say: "When people are dying – especially under such circumstances – it is always a tragedy," President Putin said during a joint press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Moscow on Tuesday. ..."
"... Correct Assessment that there are powerful 5th column(s) in Russia. Would be a huge surprise if Russia does anything. I kind of think that this could be partly a punishment for Russia to cut a deal with Turkey in Idlib, by one of the oligarchic powers. Syria is defacto divided in three as we speak. ..."
"... I think there are more than meets the eye or what official statements are saying. Could be another provocation, as with no military operation in Idlib, the fake gas attack is out of the door at this moment. Definitely not a minor event or an innocent mistake. Could also be forcing Putin to choose sides in between competing oligarchic powers. Need to wait more and see further developments. ..."
"... Yes, Israeli F-16's used the four engine reconnaissance aircraft to hide from Syrian radar, and old trick, used before. The Syrians therefore shot down the Russian plane by mistake, as images of the smaller Israeli planes were obscured by the larger image of the Russian plane on Syrian radar. ..."
"... This was an Israeli provocation, instigated after Putin met with Erdogan. Yes, some sort of deal was reached regarding Idlib, but I don't see this deal lasting too long. It suits neither the US nor Israel, especially when both, in conjunction with others, were preparing a new false flag attack against Assad. In fact this deal suites nobody. ..."
"... "The Israelis have been very clever". In what way ? By informing Russia less than one minute that they were going to attack ? When did Russia agree that Israel could use Russian reconnaissance aircraft as a cover to launch attacks against Syria ? ..."
"... I am a devout fan of Putin and his wisdom/strategy, but I'm starting to reconsider and frankly tired of seeing Russia taking so many punches from sanctions, Israeli incursions and direct military threats and not sending a strong message to the aggressors. ..."
"... If the lifes of 15 Russian military are not important enough for Putin or Shoigu to act and take active measures to secure airspace around Syria or a direct retaliation to honor their lifes, I'm afraid even the most loyal Putin supporters are going to have a difficult time stomaching these events or his lack of decisive and swift action in the matter. ..."
"... What Israel did was a provocation, provoking Russia into taking aggressive action against it. It did not work. However, Israel better not pull this trick again. ..."
"... I just checked some MSM near me. Not a line about this tragedy! My guess: they are not mentioning this "incident" and then they will start the oy vey! when the Russians will strike back. ..."
"... Yes, they are all hoping Russia will strike back and be pronounced the "aggressor". After that the MSM will apply full thrust, with more anti-Russian propaganda, this time accusing Russia of attacking little Israel. Putin will not fall for such cheap provocations. ..."
"... This doesn't make sense. The Russians along with their allies, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are fighting the takfiris in Syria. The Israelis are supporting some of the takfiris by providing them with war material, medical support and air cover including bombing Russian allies. ..."
"... Basically, the Russians should declare the any future Israeli illegal aggression will be considered an act of war, and will be met with force against the Israeli source of that aggression, be it based on land, sea or in the air. ..."
"... "There was an agreement between Israel and Russia that the actions of Israel in Syria's airspace would not endanger lives of Russian troops. Israel breached this commitment What happens next will depend on the position of Israel. Most likely, Israel will no longer be able to enjoy the same freedom in the sky of Syria as it did before the incident," Kedmi said. ..."
"... The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) earlier in the day that Israel would share all information on the incident with Moscow. The IDF expressed regret over the deaths of the Russian troops and put the blame on Damascus and Tehran. ..."
"... "Israel's attack in itself, regardless of the consequences, was an irresponsible step, because there is not a single facility on the territory of Syria that might have been used by Iran and whose destruction would have justified an attack on it, which could endanger the Russian troops," Kedmi said." ..."
"... In other words, this conflict between Russia and Israel will be managed "sub rosa" and not be allowed to disturb the "cordial" relations between the two countries. Sometimes military matters have to be subordinate to diplomatic relations. ..."
"... It just goes to show how prophetic PCR's words are. He warned that the provocations and pressure would continue and get worse until Russia either capitulated or hit back. What I do not understand is what did Putin expect after Russia pulled Assad's chestnuts out the fire. APPEASEMENT never has and never will work. ..."
"... Yup. A Russian made missile shot down a Russian plane killing Russians fired by Syria and Russian fleet and Latakian forces appears to have done nothing in defense of illegal hostile intent by IDF and France. ..."
"... The large scale political consequences of this incident are beyond measure and represent a great set back for Russia. The weak, almost apologetic response of the Russians disheartens its allies and supporters. ..."
"... Wasn't the Il-20 supposed to see the Israelis coming? If so, why didn't react? This was not a passenger plane. Something is fishy here! ..."
"... What is the statute of limitations for retaliation? If an Israeli plane mysteriously goes down a week from now, would that be a better or worse response than launching an attack today? ..."
Basically, 4 Israeli aircraft were sent on a bombing mission against targets near the Russian facilities in Khmeimim and
Tartus (which, by itself, is both stupid and irresponsible). The Israelis *deliberately* did not warn the Russians until less than
a minute before the attack took place, thus the Russians did not have the time to tell the crew of the Il-20 electronic warfare
aircraft, which was on approach for a landing, to take evasive action. When the Syrian S-200 fired their missiles to intercept the
incoming missiles, the Israelis F-16 used the Il-20, which has a much bigger radar cross section, to hide themselves resulting in
the loss of 15 lives and one aircraft.
Typical Israeli "cleverness".
The Russian MoD placed the full blame on the Israelis and declared that this attack was "dastardly", the Israeli actions as "hostile"
and said that Russia "reserves the right" to respond with "adequate counter-actions".
This is one of these rare opportunities when there is, I believe, a viable and logical option to respond: tell the Israelis that
from now on any of their aircraft approaching anywhere near the Russian forces will be shot down.
Will the Russians do that?
I doubt it. Why? Because of the very powerful pro-Zionist 5th column in Russia.
I am pretty sure that the Russian military would love to take such an measure but, unfortunately, they are limited in their actions
by the 5th columnists in the Russian government.
We shall see. If Russia does nothing, it will be interesting to see how those who deny the existence of a pro-Zionist 5th column
in Russia will explain this.
The Saker
PS: the only positive effect from this tragedy is that this will go a long way to trash the image of Israel in the Russian public
opinion (which is constantly subjected to pro-Zionist propaganda in much of the Russian media).
UPDATE1 : there we go: Putin is already "downgrading" the gravity of what happened. He
has just declared that "
the Israeli jet didn't down our aircraft " and spoke of " tragic circumstances ". True, he did add that the Russians
will take measures that "everyone will notice" but I am personally dubious about these "steps". I hope that I am wrong. We will find
out soon.
UPDATE2 : I am watching the Russian media and I have to report that Zionist propagandists (Russian liberals and Jewish commentators)
look absolutely *terrible*: they are desperately trying to blame everybody (the Syrians, Hezbollah, and even the Russians) except
for Israel. This will not sit well with the Russian public.
Defense chief vows response to Israel's actions that caused fatal crash of Il-20 aircraft
Military & Defense September 18, 17:06
"MOSCOW, September 18. /TASS/. Russia will respond to actions on behalf of the Israeli Air Force that led to a fatal crash
of Russia's Il-20 aircraft on Monday late night in Syria, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday."
"We have informed today our Israeli colleagues, and I have also informed personally the Israeli Defense Minister [Avigdor Lieberman],
that such actions will not be left unanswered by us," Shoigu said.
"According to the IDF, the Israeli jets were targeting a facility in Syria which contained "systems to manufacture accurate
and lethal weapons" that could be sent "on behalf of Iran" to Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. Israel, as well as many other
states, considers the movement a terrorist organization."..
Yeah ..just like Mossad targeting for assassination the missile scientist trying to protect Syria no more invitations to Moscow
parades ..perhaps.
Perhaps Russian defense systems will now operate in conjunction with Syrian ones as it appears that nothing defended Latakia
from IDF and French Nato frigate clearly bent on illegal hostile intent. SAA alone defending by sending missiles over the
sea to IDF jets themselves which seems to me to be further than before and rather than the missiles they sent. I wonder if French
Ambassador will be asked to attend MFA ..
I don't believe in the power of "Fifth column" because Putin could rally the people. But it's wrong to lie and say: "When
people are dying – especially under such circumstances – it is always a tragedy," President Putin said during a joint press conference
with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Moscow on Tuesday.
Responding to a reporter's question as to whether the
incident in Latakia could be compared to the downing of the Russian Su-24 by Turkey in 2015, Putin said the two situations were
"different." Ankara "deliberately downed" the Russian jet, he explained, while the Il-20 incident "looks like a chain of
tragic circumstances, because the Israeli plane didn't shoot down our jet."
That's complete bullshit. We all know it. He contradicts Soigu and his own M.O.D.
Speculation: he will put pressure on Bibi.
Speculation: he will do anything to avoid direct conflict.
Speculation: Israel will grow more arrogant. Further strikes in time.
However, Russia will improve defenses. If he doesn't implement a no fly zone for Israel, his behavior is suspect.
Correct Assessment that there are powerful 5th column(s) in Russia. Would be a huge surprise if Russia does anything. I kind
of think that this could be partly a punishment for Russia to cut a deal with Turkey in Idlib, by one of the oligarchic powers.
Syria is defacto divided in three as we speak.
This agreement made sure that Turkey and Russia owns Idlib (north of Syria), while US-Israel owns east of Euphrates. There
are rumors that France was sending some missiles in that direction (from Russian MoD). France is City of London and they are not
particularly happy with what is going on in Syria after Obama.
I think there are more than meets the eye or what official statements are saying. Could be another provocation, as with
no military operation in Idlib, the fake gas attack is out of the door at this moment. Definitely not a minor event or an innocent
mistake. Could also be forcing Putin to choose sides in between competing oligarchic powers. Need to wait more and see further
developments.
Yes, Israeli F-16's used the four engine reconnaissance aircraft to hide from Syrian radar, and old trick, used before. The
Syrians therefore shot down the Russian plane by mistake, as images of the smaller Israeli planes were obscured by the larger
image of the Russian plane on Syrian radar.
I have to disagree with The Saker that Russia will not respond against Israel because of the "powerful" pro-Zionist 5th column
in Russia. Is it really that powerful, bearing in mind Russians cannot forget the Yeltsin years ? And what can this Zionist 5th
column do overtly in Russia, if it wanted to do anything ?
This was an Israeli provocation, instigated after Putin met with Erdogan. Yes, some sort of deal was reached regarding
Idlib, but I don't see this deal lasting too long. It suits neither the US nor Israel, especially when both, in conjunction with
others, were preparing a new false flag attack against Assad. In fact this deal suites nobody.
Yes, Russia will respond, but in a subtle way. Israel would just love Russia to respond "aggressively", so that it could then
scream for American help, and thus setting up Russia against the US. It is in the US that Israel has it's Zionist Occupation Government,
not in Russia. If it did have such a government in Russia, then Russia would never have recovered as it did during Putin's years.
The Israelis have been very clever. They have kept to the letter of their agreement with the Russians even though the Russians
argue that they have not kept to its spirit.
"The Israelis have been very clever". In what way ? By informing Russia less than one minute that they were going to
attack ? When did Russia agree that Israel could use Russian reconnaissance aircraft as a cover to launch attacks against Syria
?
I am a devout fan of Putin and his wisdom/strategy, but I'm starting to reconsider and frankly tired of seeing Russia taking
so many punches from sanctions, Israeli incursions and direct military threats and not sending a strong message to the aggressors.
If the lifes of 15 Russian military are not important enough for Putin or Shoigu to act and take active measures to secure
airspace around Syria or a direct retaliation to honor their lifes, I'm afraid even the most loyal Putin supporters are going
to have a difficult time stomaching these events or his lack of decisive and swift action in the matter.
You are mistaken in your reasoning. How many provocations has Putin endured so far ? He responded in a wise, subtle way.
Yes, sanctions were introduced against Russia. For Russia this was the best thing that could have happened to it, as It concentrated
on rebuilding it's infrastructure, industry and agriculture and producing record harvests.
Putin is making patient and intelligent chess moves of the chess board. He will not fall for cheap provocations, which have
caused both Israel and the US immense political and media damage.
What Israel did was a provocation, provoking Russia into taking aggressive action against it. It did not work. However,
Israel better not pull this trick again.
I usually like your posts BF, but 'Israel better not pull this trick again,' is really going to stop them laughing their butts
off, and slapping each other on the back in Tel Aviv.
And the converse in the Russian military; I can't think of a better way to crush their morale than to let this pass. They will
be angry, and wonder for whom they are actually putting their lives on the line, and why.
You have a point. The Russian military are going to be very angry about this incident. They would love a response.
So would Israel. After that Israel would scream for US help, backed by it's huge lobby in the US. However, as I have already written,
Putin will not fall for such provocations.
I agree with you 110 percent. Everybody who has ever been beaten up by a playground bully knows that the bullying never stops
and in fact keeps getting worse until the bully is punched in the face. My love and condolences to the families of the lost Russian
servicemen.
Putin will not put at risk the project of ensuring Russia's new place in the world. Not even for 15 lives.
The overall project and maintaining course takes priority. This is why Putin has to play the game of trying to avoid direct
war with the Americans and their vassal states – regardless of the provocations.
'regardless the provocations.' How many Russian lives is that then? 100? 1000? Half of Donbass?
The ZATO gargoyles that Russia has to deal with, are masters of brinkmanship, and ultimately, safe behind their own nuclear
shield. They will keep pushing till they encounter something that actually changes the game.
I just checked some MSM near me. Not a line about this tragedy! My guess: they are not mentioning this "incident" and then
they will start the oy vey! when the Russians will strike back.
Yes, they are all hoping Russia will strike back and be pronounced the "aggressor". After that the MSM will apply full
thrust, with more anti-Russian propaganda, this time accusing Russia of attacking little Israel. Putin will not fall for such
cheap provocations.
However, what will happen will be a subtle response. Next time Israel attacks Syria over Syrian territory, it's planes will
start falling over Syrian territory, something it will need to explain. So far it has attacked Syria either firing missiles from
Israel, or from Lebanon, using both to protect it's aircraft. Occasionally it has gone in depth over Syrian territory. I have
a feeling that rules of engagement are now going to be changed.
This doesn't make sense. The Russians along with their allies, Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are fighting the takfiris in Syria.
The Israelis are supporting some of the takfiris by providing them with war material, medical support and air cover including
bombing Russian allies.
The Russians have an agreement with the Israelis that it is OK for them to bomb Russian allies
as long as Russians men and material are not hit. The Israelis will just have to inform the Russians so that the Russians can
get out of the way, and presumably not tell the Syrians or Hezbollah or Iranians that they are going to be hit by the Israelis.
The Russians tell the Syrians (and the Iranians and Hezbollah??) that it is OK for them to retaliate against Israel by shooting
at their planes or missiles with an air defense system that is integrated with the Russian air defense system. This only makes
sense if the Russians want the Syrians to fire at the Israelis but not hit them.
With such an arrangement is it any surprise that the Russians lost a plane? I would say it was only a matter of time before
it happened.
As RT reports, President Putin has characterized this event as resulting from "tragic circumstances".
1) Would not such a view
appear to contradict that expressed within the MoD representations?
2) If 1 is true, will there not arise a deleterious effect on the credibility of the President, the military, or both?
3) If 2 is true, for hostile media purposes, is there not apparent incoherence, or at least inconsistency, within the overall
"Russian" position (which would be a novel, highly exploitable weakness)?
4) If 3 is true (asking of those who understand the Russian people), what might be the effect on "civilian" Russian thinking,
feeling, and attitudes?
To answer your last question, I can speak only for myself: if Putin can't do anything with regards to this latests slap in his
face by his 'partner' (who was there on 9th May to celebrate my ancestors victory), I withdraw all support for him. Why do we
have to put up with everything that's thrown out way, if we can't win, or now most likely not willing to win anyway?!
And what would you like Putin to do ? Attack Israel, which would then scream for US help ? When you fight a war, the
intention is to win the war, not battles. Strategy comes first in importance, tactics come second.
To start – Deliver S300, S400 to Syria asap. This should minimise potential repeat
of last nights events.
Enforce no-fly zone and aid Syrian forces to get better in what they doing, potentially operating defences together to start
with.
But if the response is what I heard today, then submit to Zionism, and let us adapt to the realities and find our way within.
Because he clearly doesn't want to do anything or simply can't. Why do I have to be subjected to humiliation all the time for
being Russian? Why my nephew (soon approaching military service age) would have to take part in this madness? What for? So that
Putin can keep on turning the other cheek?! Thanks, but no thanks! Not worth it.
What's astonishing is how many 'supporters' he has among Saker community abroad, most of the Westerners commenting and discussing
what Putin and Russians should do from the comfort of the Zionist protectorates, and no one is fighting it, no one! But Russians
are expected to?!
I do not understand why we even warn the Russians if we are going to bomb them? Makes no sense, We should bomb the s-400 sites
and the airfields they have. We could rearm the idlib rebels and send them on an attack on Latakia while Israel, US, France, and
UK all strike Russian AD. We should get these guys out of this region. We should help Ukraine as well, their economy doing well
with US dollars and also cleanse the Donbass of them. Then do the good ol regime change on em. We toppled all their allies at
this point, Turks stronger but they still in Nato so we are doing a pretty good job and managing and organizing global governance
I think.
"We should bomb the S-400 sites and the airfields they have." Now there is a death wish for you. Let's overtly trigger WW3. The
US and Israel and do everything they can to suck Russia into committing an obvious act of aggression against them, so they can
be blamed for starting the fireworks, and this time with clear evidence that it is so.
The US and Israel are committing their aggression in such a way that they can plausibly deny that they intended it – it was
an accident, they say. They will continue to there provocations until they draw the desired response from Russia, or Syria.
Basically, the Russians should declare the any future Israeli illegal aggression will be considered an act of war, and will
be met with force against the Israeli source of that aggression, be it based on land, sea or in the air.
Then proceed accordingly. No more free aggression for Israel.
Putin to Powers Attacking Syria: Please Keep Getting my Soldiers Killed, I Won't Do Anything About It
Putin declines to even just chastise Israel for the loss of the Russian Il-20 and 15 crew in the midst of IDFs wholly illegal
and unprovoked attack on sovereign Syria. Unlike the military the Russian president blames it all on "a chain of tragic accidents"
"Israel is unlikely to freely use Syrian airspace in the wake of the crash of a Russian Il-20 military aircraft over the Mediterranean
Sea, Yakov Kedmi, a former high-ranking Israeli intelligence official, told Sputnik.
"There was an agreement between Israel and Russia that the actions of Israel in Syria's airspace would not endanger lives
of Russian troops. Israel breached this commitment What happens next will depend on the position of Israel. Most likely, Israel
will no longer be able to enjoy the same freedom in the sky of Syria as it did before the incident," Kedmi said.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) earlier in the day that Israel would share all information on the incident with Moscow.
The IDF expressed regret over the deaths of the Russian troops and put the blame on Damascus and Tehran.
"Israel's attack in itself, regardless of the consequences, was an irresponsible step, because there is not a single facility
on the territory of Syria that might have been used by Iran and whose destruction would have justified an attack on it, which
could endanger the Russian troops," Kedmi said."
More likely what will happen is that the next Israeli attack will be met by the Syrian military with a barrage of missiles coordinated
by the Russians, resulting in the shootdown of one or more Israeli aircraft. The Israelis will know who was behind it and will
be forced to reconsider their attacks on "Iranians" in Syria.
Russia can do this because it has surveillance aircraft up – this one will be replaced and escorted by fighters next time –
and it will know when Israel launches all its aircraft. Israel doesn't have to "inform Russia" because Russia already knows when
and where Israeli aircraft are in the vicinity – unless Israel can somehow "cloak" their approach.
In other words, this conflict between Russia and Israel will be managed "sub rosa" and not be allowed to disturb the "cordial"
relations between the two countries. Sometimes military matters have to be subordinate to diplomatic relations.
It just goes to show how prophetic PCR's words are. He warned that the provocations and pressure would continue and get worse
until Russia either capitulated or hit back. What I do not understand is what did Putin expect after Russia pulled Assad's chestnuts
out the fire. APPEASEMENT never has and never will work.
I understand both Martynov's and Saker's points on this but, again, PCR
is correct. This will get to a point were Russia either lays down the law with concrete actions or has to surrender. I see no
other options in the long term, though short term Putin could keep trying to play the game, as the Neo-Con West will keep doubling
down.
Yup. A Russian made missile shot down a Russian plane killing Russians fired by Syria and Russian fleet and Latakian forces appears
to have done nothing in defense of illegal hostile intent by IDF and France. I do not think Iran is going to be to happy with
this. Did they hint they might assist Syria in regaining Golan heights? Because Iran is still being targeted. With Russia "aware"
of this ..but doing what for or with Iran ?
" On Netanyahu's personal request Russia had stopped the delivery of original Russian S-300 long range air-defense missiles to
the Syrian military. These would have been less likely to veer off towards the wrong target. In consequence an Iranian 747 was
damaged and 15 Russian soldiers were killed. Netanyahu can forget about any further such "favors" from Moscow.
The large scale political consequences of this incident are beyond measure and represent a great set back for Russia. The
weak, almost apologetic response of the Russians disheartens its allies and supporters. Russia has todied after Isreal –
to its shame – and now appears powerless against the results. Failing to arm the Syrians tells other partners what they can expect.
And just plain military incompetence on the field inspires doubt that the Russia military are really any good.
Its hard to imagine how the fall out could be any worse. If that was an American or British plane, those nations would have
acted decisively and firmly. But Russia is an empty bag of wind.
1) There was a substantial amount of time between the incident and the time official statements were made. Undoubtedly there
was a bunch of negotiation and deliberation. We have no way of knowing what was agreed upon and for whose benefit the agreements
were made.
2) If they truly wanted to appease Israel, why admit to the incident at all? Militaries cover up unflattering incidents all
the time. Remember how the witnesses of the bin Laden raid died a month later in a different country? Or the Pentagon's claim
back in April about how all the missiles hit their targets, despite clear video evidence to the contrary.
3) What is the statute of limitations for retaliation? If an Israeli plane mysteriously goes down a week from now, would
that be a better or worse response than launching an attack today?
Poor Zionist Israel and sad little has been France. It was over for them in Syria, anyway.
However, the Russian/Turkish deal about Idlib was too much, as it settled the fates of Idlib,
ISIS, and Syria in a mostly peaceful way. That was too much for the little hate filled Nazis
in Israel and the silly, puffed up pervert Macron. They had to create an incident and
desperately attempt to provoke Syria and Russia into a violent response to draw the US into a
shooting war again in Syria. As could have been predicted, it failed.
Israel looks like a spoiled, dangerous, psychotically paranoid state to me, right now. The
radical Israeli zionists are convinced, it seems, that a peaceful, secular, stable Syria will
seek to invade and destroy Israel. That's delusional. I suspect that Israel is also aware of
its rapidly declining support among all Americans – rich, middle class, poor,
Christian, Muslim, AND Jewish and is desperate to reverse the trend. Their problem is that
the harder they try to reverse their declining popularity, the faster it declines."
"Kalen • 4 hours ago
In 2015 while ISIS controlled half of Syria, while Al-Qeada another quarter preparing to oust
Assad , US flew only 8 sorties over Syria per day , with less than one combat sortie per
day.
In October Russians landed 50 combat aircraft and with direct support from strategic
bombers from Russian bases in RF flew at peak 200 combat missions a day.
Putin could have closed Syria airspace but he did not, and that would have ended US, and
Israelis illegal aggression but instead Putin via his decisions encouraged it.
Putin however , stated that he is in Syria to fight terrorists and not to to support
Assad. That was a logical absurd that revealed entire charade of Putin involvement which was
characterized with excellent relations with Israeli aggressor all these years.
Why Putin insists on losing all the credibility is beyond me, especially that his suppose
stupidity and gullibility costed many Russian military lives but most of all unnecessary
Syrian lives as this war could have been ended long time ago.
Russia apparently joined others who thrive on misery of Syrian war."
Apparently 14 Russian personnel were murdered by the Zionist vermin who are playing with
nuclear fire as we all know but I suspect some of you are being a bit like the ostrich myth
in your acknowledgment of this hard fact. Kalen is spot on.
Remember the '56 Suez crisis? Russia did not fuck around with Eden in the UK or whoever
was running France. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis#Soviet_threats
The difference now and Suez then is that the USA has is now allied withIsrael and two
played-out has been former world powers-UK and France. So the USA ,France,Israel and the UK
need to be hard bitch slapped by Putin just as Khrushchev would have done.
"Nikita Khrushchev's much publicized threat expressed through letters written by Nikolai
Bulganin to begin rocket attacks on 5 November on Britain, France, and Israel if they did not
withdraw from Egypt was widely believed at the time to have forced a ceasefire.[349]
Accordingly, it enhanced the prestige of the Soviet Union in Egypt, the Arab world, and the
Third World, who believed the USSR was prepared to launch a nuclear attack on Britain,
France, and Israel for the sake of Egypt.[349] Though Nasser in private admitted that it was
American economic pressure that had saved him, it was Khrushchev, not Eisenhower, whom Nasser
publicly thanked as Egypt's saviour and special friend.[349] Khrushchev later boasted in his
memoirs:
The terrorist Zionist bastards STFU and eventually withdrew in the usual tradition of the
IDF:
"The Israelis refused to host any UN force on Israeli controlled territory and left the
Sinai in March 1957. Before the withdrawal the Israeli forces systematically destroyed
infrastructure in Sinai peninsula, such as roads, railroads and telephone lines, and all
houses in the villages of Abu Ageila and El Quseima. Before the railway was destroyed, Israel
Railways captured Egyptian National Railways equipment including six locomotives[341] and a
30-ton breakdown crane."
I reported this yesterday . All war crimes
are serious, but attacking an international airport in close proximity to an event hosting
thousands of civilians from around the world has a degree of hideousness about it that
recalls the terrorism waged by Begin and his gang prior to Israel being carved out of
Palestine. The Zionist attack must be called what it is -- an act of terrorism.
While some countries may be trying to get off the sinking ship called ""Assad must go",
Israel is doing what Israel does best, flout international law and launch another attack on
Syria. What makes this attack particularly dangerous is that it attacked Damascus
International airport and environs. Currently the 63rd Damascus International Fair is taking
place near the airport. A total disregard for civilians. A shot over the bow of those nations
that wish to invest in Syria. Some Syrian civilians don't count for much, especially in the
eyes of FUKUS. They just need to be liberated from the baby killer Assad to share in all the
freedoms available in Idlib. Not to worry, Nikki Haley will rise to the occasion in defence
of that other indispensable nation.
#31 The Germans called the Canadian Corp Stormtroopers. My grandfathers brother fought at
Passchendaele and was gassed by the Germans. He suffered from that for the rest of his life
until he died in 1972.
@Sam Shama Bibi is
a showman, that much is clear. You seem to be making equivalencies, not in evidence.
If you believe that the captain of the flight group was an insider to some alleged
conspiracy, then it must have been unique, one which ran down from the ranks of the top brass
all the way to the active operation captains. A tall order to believe. It would also require
you to believe that in the many friendly fire incidents, involved personnel never commit
errors judging the size of a vessel etc. Again, not the case. Indeed, Bibi is a
shoah-man.
Meanwhile, the Jewish Al Qaeda has been on the march in Syria:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-05/israels-military-censor-removed-news-report-detailing-idf-support-syrian-armed
Comment section: " The Zionist Plan for the Middle East, also known as the Yinon Plan, is an
Israeli strategic plan to ensure Israeli regional superiority. It insists and stipulates that
Israel must reconfigure its geo-political environment through the balkanization of the
surrounding Arab states into smaller and weaker states.
When viewed in the current context, the war on Iraq, the 2006 war on Lebanon, the 2011 war on
Libya, the ongoing war on Syria, not to mention the process of regime change in Egypt, must
be understood in relation to the Zionist Plan for the Middle East. The latter consists in
weakening and eventually fracturing neighboring Arab states as part of an Israeli
expansionist project.
"Greater Israel" consists in an area extending from the Nile Valley to the Euphrates"
– In short, the genocidal wars in Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Syria are the result of the
Jewish aspiration for "greatness." Another Bolshevik plan that is causing the enormous
tragedy for the innocent civilian populations, thanks to Jewish supremacist ideology and
sadism.
New reports on Israel's arming and funding of Syrian rebel groups reveals that
no less than 12 rebel factions, all in southern Syria, were on the receiving end of
Israeli aid. This included weapons, ammunition, money, and
even some armored vehicles .
The story about arming Syrian rebels actually broke Wednesday with the
Jerusalem Post, though Israeli military censors shut this down quickly. Once the
foreign-based Foreign Policy came out with its own version Thursday, Israeli media were quick
to follow, suggesting the censors gave up on trying to keep this secret.
Foreign Policy interviewed rebels from the Syrian groups, and suggested that they "feel
betrayed" because they had assumed Israel would intervene militarily to save them from the
Syrian offensive, and that never happened.
This sense of abandonment has been common among rebels getting foreign subsidies, as
they've often assumed there was a deep commitment to the rebellion, as opposed to just a
brief alliance of convenience. Several Syrian rebel groups have similarly lashed the US for
"betrayal" during the war.
One rebel was quoted saying "This i a lesson we will not forget about Israel. It does not
care about the people. It does not care about humanity. All it cares about is its own
interests." Israel confirmed it ended funding for rebels in July, when the last rebels in the
south lost.
It's unsurprising that Israel didn't commit militarily to southern Syria during the
offensive, since Russia was backing the attack on the rebels, and almost certainly would've
moved against Israel if they had.
Written byEvgeniy Satanovskiy ; Originally appeared at VPK , translated by J.Hawk exclusively for
SouthFront
Washington's declaration of withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, which is something that
President Trump threatened to do for a fairly long time, and the exchange of strikes between
Iran and Israel, have become the focus of attention of the international media.
Incidentally, what's typical is that in spite of the possibility of escalation, a big
Iran-Israel war, and especially a direct clash in Syria between the US and Russia and even US
and Iran, are far from inevitable. An analysis of events suggests restraint on part of all
concerned. It's no accident Iran fired not on the internationally recognized territory of
Israel but the Golan Heights which nobody in the world officially considers part of Israel. And
even then only military facilities were struck.
At the same time, the Tehran-Jerusalem conflict is far from exhausted, and it may evolve in
several unpredictable directions. This includes the struggle for power and resources within the
Iranian elite, where the military and security officials are openly opposed to President
Rouhani's people. As far as the US violation of the Iran deal is concerned, Trump inflicted
severe damage on "Atlantic solidarity." It can't be ruled out that his main goal was to
subordinate NATO allies to Washington and undermine the EU's economic potential, both of which
are unacceptable to European capitals.
The smoldering Iran-Israel confrontation in the meantime entered an active phase. On early
morning of May 10, Al-Quds units launched rockets at military sites on Gola heights. This event
followed weeks of gradual escalation of Israeli attacks against Iranian positions in Syria,
including the May 9 strike on a supposed IRGC-linked facility in southern suburbs of Damascus.
The initial Iranian and Syrian volley which consisted, according to the IDF, of at least 20
rockets, provoked a retaliation against targets in western Syria including around Damascus. IDF
press service announced that it struck dozens of Al-Quds sites in Syria. They included Iranian
intelligence units controlled by Al-Quds, its headquarters, military and logistical facilities,
an Iranian military camp north of Damascus, Al-Quds weapons storage in the Damascus
international airport, information systems linked to Al-Quds, outposts and observation points
in the buffer zone. An Iranian launcher unleashing rockets against Israel was hit. Israeli
aircraft also attacked Syrian air defense units which opened fire in spite of warnings.
US intelligence sources state that Israeli aircraft operated over the Lebanese airspace to
minimize losses. IDF announced some Iranian rockets were intercepted by Iron Dome. Iranians
delivered a significant response to the constant Iranian attacks, and that fact by itself means
a new phase of the Syria war which is now additionally complicated by the Jerusalem-Tehran
conflict. Moreover, Israel brought its forces on the Golan into full readiness some three days
earlier, and the preparations included restoring bomb shelters there.
Prime Minister's
Reconnaissance
Israel's PM Netanyahu arrived in Moscow with the clear goal of ascertaining Russia's
position and the degree of its military involvement in the Iran-Israel confrontation in Syria.
The main issue were Moscow's efforts to modernize Syria's air defenses which would greatly
complicate future Israeli airstrikes and Russia's ability to deter Iran from future rocket
strikes. But this kind of mediation is only possible if Israel were to abandon preventive
airstrikes, which it's not about to do. But if Iranian rocket strikes are repeated, it might
mean an IDF land operation on Israel's northern borders, leading to the possibility of a direct
clash with Iranians and Lebanese.
On the other hand, Netanyahu's very visit to Moscow for the Victory Day, him walking by the
side of President Vladimir Putin as part of the Immortal Regiment, was supposed to demonstrate
the "closeness of positions." It was a signal to both Iran and the United States. PM's
departure abroad, while his country was in full battle readiness due to the expected Iranian
strike would have appeared odd if the Israeli leadership expected a serious war. However, the
missile exchange was predictable. Right up until this latest escalation, both Israeli and US
sources emphasized the growing likelihood of an Iranian military response. Tehran increased
shipments of weapons and equipment to Syria, and warned more than once that Israeli strikes on
its positions in Syria would not go unanswered.
Even so, Iran is inclined to avoid a big war with Israel, particularly since it's trying to
strengthen its positions in Syria and preserve the strength of its own forces. Its most
important priority is completing the suppression of anti-Assad enclaves in the central and
southern parts of Syria which would shift the center of gravity of operations not toward Israel
but toward Idlib and the regions east of Euphrates. That's where the question of Saudi presence
in Syria will be decided, which is a more important priority for Iran, given its efforts to
establish the "Shia Crescent", than the Israeli sector. Jerusalem is also not interested in a
prolonged armed conflict with Tehran.
The Bomb and Rocket Show
Israel and Iran de-facto enacted an impressive show in the Syrian stage with the aim of
communicating their political stances to the world community. The main issues are the Iran
nuclear deal (JCPOA) and its US abrogation, followed by political isolation of the US by its
allies. This worries Israel. Netanyahu's demonstration of "intelligence documents" on the eve
of Washington's withdrawal from JCPOA accusing Iran of cheating had no effect on the EU, which
may ignore US sanctions. By provoking Iran, Israel sustained a high degree of tension which
made defending JCPOA harder for the EU, due to Iran's "aggressive acts."
Strikes on Israeli targets were supposed to harden US positions, and provoke the US to enter
into a direct confrontation with Syria and Iran. Experts believe that Israel is not prepared
for an independent military campaign against Iran, which it demonstrated during the Obama
years. That's what Pentagon counted on, hence the "calm" reaction from Washington. The US did
not comment on the Al-Quds strikes on the IDF forward positions on the Golan and referred
questions to Israeli government. This means diplomatic support.
Iran demonstrated to Europe possible consequences of the US withdrawal from JCPOA and
negatively reacted to Israeli PM's growing "understanding" with Moscow. Several sources have
indicated this action was backed by IRGC "hard-liners".
US analysts believe Iran and Israel are not about to expand their conflict at beyond the
borders of Syria, but there is risk that their clashes may slip from under control. They
suppose that the diplomatic approach to Moscow had no result. But it's extremely important for
Israel not to cause a conflict with Russia in Syria, while maintaining close cooperation with
the US and adopt a more aggressive stance toward Iran. The last round of strikes and
counter-strikes represents a serious danger of escalation, giving Jerusalem an opening to
pursue more active measures against Iran's presence in Syria. There is also a danger that
Iran-Israel clashes will spread to Lebanon and potentially draw in Russia and the US.
In Syria's east, according to the Pentagon, there are more frequent clashes between
US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Shia militias. Iranian and Syrian air defenses
face the risk of confusing US coalition and Israeli aircraft. Pro-Iranian militants in Syria
could strike US targets. Russia's priority in this situation is undoubtedly the de-escalation
of Iran-Israel conflict, in view of the risks it poses to Russian forces and aims in Syria.
The US is also inclined in favor of de-escalation, in order to avoid being drawn into a
full-scale combat in Syria, which Washington doesn't need. It's aim is to preserve a relative
stability zone east of Euphrates, where political alternatives to Damascus may be established
among the local Sunnis. This requires time and absence of local fighting. On the other hand,
Israel's strikes draw away pro-Iran forces toward Syria's south, away from Eurphrates. But
Israel is not prepared for a constant conflict on the Golan, in addition to Southern Lebanon
and Gaza.
More concerns!
Political scientists' discussions in international media revolve around the following
questions: will the US attack Iran? Will there be a big war? Will US actions lead to IRGC
"hawks" coming to power in Iran, causing a resumption of the nuclear program? Will the region
collapse into chaos that will be remotely controlled from the US, after it leaves from the
Middle East and the Gulf region? Will the US force its will on the EU? What is Russia to do in
this situation?
It seems Washington is not about to strike Iranian targets either in Iran or Syria. At least
not during the period until November 4, which is the date of reimposition of sanctions on Iran
-- the US is introducing sanctions so that it doesn't have to fight. All the more since their
strikes don't solve anything, and can't influence anything. The center of gravity of US policy
toward Iran is not military action, but rather attempts at economic strangulation in order to
facilitate social ferment. Without the US, none of its allies will engage in a full-scale war
with Iran.
This kind of conflict means that, apart from personnel and economic losses, Saudi Arabia and
UAE will not be able to pursue the diversification of economy they proclaimed. This also
applies to Israel, which wants to participate in the stand-off with Iran only jointly with the
US, by incentivizing the US to exit JCPOA and launch a preventive strike. These steps have thus
far been resisted by the Pentagon which is against any military operations until when pro-Iran
forces openly attack US military presence in the region. This is the main guarantee that US
will not strike Iran in the foreseeable future, in spite of all the rhetoric and prognoses made
by Iranian leaders.
Iranians, Europeans, and Americans will seek ways to reach an acceptable compromise before
November 4. Tehran will be in a waiting mode, without leaving JCPOA, and sound out EU
positions. There are yet no grounds to believe IRGC "hawks" will come to power. Their last
attempt to strengthen their positions in Iranian power structure during the recent social
unrest was a failure. The ultraconservatives' leader and former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
is still under house arrest. IRGC dissent was crushed by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, who never allowed the IRGC, rather than the reformers, to seize the role of the
dominant competitor to the clerics in the struggle for power in Iran. Instead, the reformers
have grown stronger thanks to the clerics' efforts to use them against the security bloc.
As far as the EU is concerned, Rouhani's words are quite telling. He said the following in a
phone conversation with Angela Merkel: "I call on the EU, in particular France, UK, and
Germany, to adopt a firm position to guarantee Iranian interests within the signed agreement."
This concerns the sale of oil, gas, and finance. Merkel confirmed Berlin is sticking to the
agreement as long as Iran fulfills its obligations. She also spoke in favor of expanding the
list of countries participating in the talks with Iran on its ballistic missile program, and on
developments in the region, including in Syria and Yemen.
France's Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire commented on the US decision to abandon
JCPOA and reimpose sanctions on radio station Europe 1: "It's time to shift from words to
action from the point of view of economic sovereignty." Europe, according to Le Maire, should
not be a US vassal. He said that he'll meet with his British and French counterparts in late
May "to see what can be done in response to the US". He noted that EU already work on endowing
Europe with financial instruments that would make it independent of the US. he reminded that in
1996 the Council of Europe adopted a resolution on protecting the union against
extraterritorial sanctions. "This turns the US into an economic gendarme of the planet, and
think it unacceptable," said Le Maire.
For Russia, any serious conflict in the Middle East is automatically to its long-term
benefit, both economically (because Europe and Asia lose hydrocarbon sources which cannot be
compensated by US LNG or fracked oil) and politically. It accentuates Russia's potential as a
military superpower and a guarantor of borders of this or that country, not to mention its
prospects for arms conflicts. The conflict moreover does not concern Russia directly, though it
does signal the end of the unipolar world order.
This makes clear what Moscow ought to do: nothing other than what it's been doing so far.
Hover above the fray, and bring to a logical conclusion its current policy in Syria. JCPOA is a
matter for the US, EU, and the Arab world. Here the main tasks for the Russian diplomats is to
say the right things and express concern. Other forms of diplomacy will be more effective,
particularly the military-political one, as in Syria or Afghanistan. Russia won't be able to
exploit EU's unhappiness with the US, or become a bridge between the EU and Iran, which is what
some Russian experts are calling for.
In the first of the two, the relations with Russia are not as critical. US remains the key
EU partner, in spite of differences on certain trade issues and JCPOA. The biggest factor here
is the volume of economic losses caused by loyalty to Washington. Once the losses from Iran
sanctions, aluminum, steel, and iron sanctions, the growth of own expenditures on defense, and
the rest, start to exceed the volume of bilateral trade with the US, the degree of EU loyalty
toward Washington will decline dramatically. Secondly, EU does not need Russia to organize its
relations with Iran.
Trump is trying to re-establish Washington's total dominion over America's European, Arab
allies. It's a strategy, not a tactic. Therefore it's pointless to talk about the US leaving
the Middle East. They won't go anywhere as long as Russia is there. It's a matter of
geopolitics. It's another matter that Trump, as a businessman, is first and foremost trying to
finance US presence there at the expense of allies, and much of what he does is driven by that
goal. Many experts don't consider that factor, and instead they try to explain his actions on
the basis of political scientists' and diplomats' ideas and opinions on how international
relations ought to be based, in accordance with "rules of the game" worked out by these same
political scientists and diplomats.
Trump is not bound by tradition. He's an entrepreneur, of the adventurist variety. That's
what brought him to power in spite of all the opposition and predictions to the contrary made
even by leaders of the party in whose name he won. This victory convinced him he's on the right
course, since it brings him desired results. He operates internationally as if it were a
speculative business: raises and lowers stakes, bluffs, demolishes his partners' expectations,
whenever he considers it beneficial.
Trump pays attention to nothing but the final result, and if it's something other than
expected, he easily claims that's what he was after, and that's what the US needs, it's just
that nobody realized it before. It's enough to remember the Qatar and "Arab Four" confrontation
which he provoked, and from which he benefited by signing arms contracts with both sides and
obtaining unprecedented financial commitments from them in spite of their sincere belief that
each of the sides in the confrontation will get from Trump what they wanted. There is no doubt
that even with Iran his goal is not the same as what he's publicizing.
Evgeniy Satanovskiy (President of the Middle East Institute), with materials from Yu.
Shcheglovin
I wonder what is the Hebrew for the word
Gleiwitz?
The Gleiwitz incident (German: Überfall auf den Sender Gleiwitz ; Polish : Prowokacja
gliwicka ) was a covert Nazi German attack on the German radio station Sender
Gleiwitz on the night of 31 August 1939 (today Gliwice , Poland), widely regarded as a deceitful
false flag operation
staged along with some two dozen similar German incidents on the eve of the invasion of Poland leading up to
World
War II in Europe .
The Israeli missiles launched yesterday (Wednesday/Thursday) against Iranian military forces
in Syria were real. My old "friend" TTG did an excellent job of documenting the timeline of the
attack/retaliation (
see here ) in his latest twisted post. But it was a trumped up attack. A pretext for
hitting Iranian forces. Iran did not initiate this action. Israel claims it was retaliating
against an unprovoked Iranian missile/rocket strike in the Golan Heights. Israel had been
planning this strike for several days. How do I know? I received the following message from a
military buddy monitoring the situation last Monday. He wrote:
Looks like Israel is getting froggy. They're stepping up their non-kinetic ops against
Syrian AND Russian tech...jamming the shit out of certain air defense systems.
Could be gearing up for a strike package, could just be trying to degrade the battle space
air picture to support another objective or conceal a capability they're testing. Hard to tell
at this point.
Now we know. They were prepping their strike against Iranian targets. I understand why
Israel is terrified of having Iranian military personnel and equipment based in Syria. But
launching weak-ass preemptive strikes, like Israel did yesterday, does nothing more than to
arouse the furor of those unjustly attacked. Iran understands that revenge is a dish best
served cold. They are not going to rush out and start thowing blind haymakers. They will hurt
Israel and will make it count.
It is not a mere coincidence that Israel's bombing barrage came on the heels of Donald
Trump's announcement that the United States was withdrawing from Obama's Iran deal. This was
coordinated fully with Israel, who in turn decided to hit Iranian targets inside Syria. It was
designed specifically to feed the meme that Iran is a rogue state.
But there is irony in this action. Israel used a ploy that Hitler's Nazi Germany wielded.
Hitler and the Wehrmacht were keen on coming up with a casus belli for war against Poland. I
grant you that the Nazi invasion of Poland is in another league from what Israel did in Syria
against Iranians. But we should not ignore the possibility that Israel's unprovoked attacks are
likely to spawn future retaliation by the Iranians. When that happens Israeli leaders will be
under pressure to punch back. That means we will be traveling the road of tit-for-tat, which
usually winds up in Escalation City and full blown war.
Former Ambassador Chas. W Freeman, one of the most astute observers and analysts of the
region, gave a talk on "A Middle East with No Master" on 10 May 2018.
He concluded his talk by listing four broad observations:
First, religion is back as a driver of history.
Second, the rising powers that Middle Eastern countries seek to engage in their
affairs (referring to China and India) are unlikely to meet their expectations .
Third, with the exception of the United States, external powers have all declined to
associate themselves with Israel's, Saudi Arabia's, and the United Arab Emirates'
hysteria about Iran.
Finally, there is a very real danger that the low intensity conflict now underway
between Israel and Iran in Syria and the Gulf Arabs' proxy wars with Iran could escalate
into a major war .....But, having delegated U.S. policy toward Iran to Israel and the
Gulf Arabs, the United States is in no position to decide that question, or very much
else.
My favorite insightful bit was these two paragraphs:
In the absence of strategy, a desire to sustain relationships in the region by supporting
clients' actions drives U.S. policy. The clients themselves have moved beyond
relationship-driven diplomacy and are into transactionalism. The extent to which the U.S.
now follows, rather than leads, its client states in the region is reflected in the Trump
administration's obeisance to Israeli and Saudi hostility to Iran and the "JCPOA."
Meanwhile, minimal commitments of force accompanied by deft diplomacy have enabled
Russia to exploit the Syrian tragedy to become the most sought-after external actor in
the region's affairs. Turkey, once outside the region and Russia's NATO enemy, is again
part of the Middle East, this time cooperating with Russia there more often than not.
Egypt, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are all cultivating ties with Moscow. Their
objective is to correct over-reliance on the United States by diluting it.
-----------------
I think this is a succinct overview of the power evolving power dynamics. I personally
think transactionalism is a better approach anyway if one is really looking after one's
self interest. I am glad to see these Middle Eastern countries get out from under the
"mastery" of the US and focus more on their destinies.
OTOH... Starting with the title, I found my self irritated with how paternalistic and
neo-colonial the underlying assumptions of the talk are. Though of course this is not
surprising considering the audience and the nature of the Borg's exceptionalist beliefs.
Treating the Middle East with such paternalistic and neo-colonialist attitudes was bound
to backfire eventually. Now that China and Russia can offer other options, some of them
will be preferable.
I agree with you. Russia and China are slowly but surely supplanting the US in the ME,
and much of the rest of the world.
I think Russia is very conscious of the danger of the US, under its present
leadership, lashing out with its military in a desperate bid to hold on to its previous
status. That is why it is moving so carefully in the ME. Perhaps, that is also the reason
why Putin seems to be cultivating Netanyahu (knowing that Israel practically controls US
external policies).
Yes, that makes sense. Since Putin isn't getting anywhere in dealing directly with the
US due to TDS and related anti-Russia hysteria, going to the "source" (Israel) is an
excellent strategy. Another example of Putin's mastery of the art of strategic
diplomacy.
I have been pondering the related S-300 dance. At one level there is likely a concern
over escalation, and in contrast with Pax Americana, Putin is much more cautious about
arming his allies. But I wonder if the focus on this one particular weapon is a bit of a
red herring, and is providing cover for other types of weapons help the Russians don't
want to talk about. Maybe some of the weapons geeks here would have a better idea of what
that might be.
IIRC, Chas Freeman was Obama's original choice for appointment as National Security
Advisor, but caved to opposition to him by the Neocons and AIPAC. What might the
counterfactual history have been?
IDF electronic surveillance / EW positions on Mt. Hermon have direct line-of-sight to
most of the Damascus Plain. They would be mad as hornets if Iran had used some kind of
precision missiles earlier this week to take out the AD jammers or any other related
equipment. Reports said Grad or Fajr were used against Israel, but that doesn't make
sense. Neither is accurate enough.
Israel is paranoid about the existence of Syrian or Iranian precision missiles.
The FUKUS strike targeted Syrian sites involved in development of their own precision
missiles - not the bogus Syrian CW development sites cover story. The Iranian
sites and equipment Israel is worried about are - my guess - mobile crews with newer,
more accurate Iranian missiles. Their Mt. Hermon surveillance complex sites are sitting
ducks - they can't put Patriots everywhere. At the same time, Israel is continuing with
its slow-bleed Syrian AD destruction. Israel has to have total air dominance when they
attack Lebanon or Syria again. That's the only way they know how toare willing to fight.
Sources? Like Reuters, Heraatz, al Arabyia, SANA or FARS? They don't seem to jabber much
about air defense or ELINT/EW strategy, equipment or tactics. The only assertions I could
cite from them are: 1) All attacks are 100% successful and meet all objectives (or are
complete failures), 2) All air defense responses take out most of the incoming threats
(or don't), and ELINT/EW means 100% successful eavesdropping and effective jammers (or
else both are utterly useless against the newest toys).
I doubt that any Iranian attacks happened. If any Iranian attack did happen, which is far
from certain, they would have gone for unguided Scuds because that was what was
available.
Israel doesn't have air dominance - all the missiles were fired from Lebanon.
Israel ...has to have... this condition before they'll ever attempt any
'preemptive preventative' ground assault/land grab. Even if/when they ever manage to
assassinate Assad, the IDF armor won't roll into Lebanon or Syria with their troops
without owning the airspace first. Until then: head-chopper proxies got the job.
SCUDs? I'm confused, Laguerre. I'm not talking about Iran attacking from Iran, but IRCG
missile crews in southern Syria firing into Israel. They surely didn't haul unguided,
liquid-fueled SCUDs to Syria.
This is after/in addition to earlier Syrian artillery striking what was described as
an "Israeli forward outpost on Al Shaykh mountain" . I'm reading that as
the Arab name for Mt. Hermon , and the 'forward outpost' as the electronic
surveillance site(s).
The SAA responded to subsequent Israeli counter-attacks with MRLS volleys at
Israeli-backed head-choppers crossing UNDOF into Syria, but those volleys would have been
useless for hitting Israeli ELINT equipment/positions.
That's where either Iran (or Syria) were also firing precision-guided ballistic
missiles, and that's what I think really set the Israelis off. Until then, both sides
were just trading fire over some botched head-chopper op on Khan Arnabeh. After that,
Israel unleashed its suicide drones and cruise missiles at (what they claim were)
'Iranian sites'. I'm guessing those were where the ballistic missiles targeting Israeli
ELINT sites came from.
By SCUDs I meant generically cheap unguided missiles which are always available in the
Middle East, even if something more technologically advanced is not at hand. As the
Houthis have, for example.
"But it was a trumped up attack. A pretext for hitting Iranian forces. Iran did not
initiate this action. Israel claims it was retaliating against an unprovoked Iranian
missile/rocket strike in the Golan Heights. "
The thing is, beside Israel's claim of "hitting Iranian targets" there is no proof to
back this up. I am inclined to rather take Mr Fadel's word here, cynically sarcastic as
it is:
I entirely agree with that. How many Iranian targets were actually hit? Were any? All the
details talk of the targets being Syrian, by their location or other details.
It looks to me as though these strikes were never intended to accomplish anything
substantive. This and other recent actions seem more like probing to see what works and
what doesn't. The dismal reported performance of the recent US strikes in Syria has to
have everyone wondering how much the balance of defense to offense has changed. So they
are trying things, anlyzing the outcomes, and trying other things. This may be
preparation for something big, but for now all I see is a frantic need to measure the
capabilities of the different sides. The actual attacks so far wouldn't have accomplished
anything much on the ground even if they had been fully successful.
Elijah Magnier says the Israelis are extra pissy because they just found out that Iran
has been running 'pieces' to the Palestinians with low vis drones. He goes to say that
Syria firing ballistic missiles into the Golan is a major escalation. One implication is
that this time they fired at military installations, next time they could go after
civilians.
I'm waiting for Netanyahu to say that fragments from the 'Iranian' missiles intercepted
by Iron Dome had traces of Sarin that matched Syria's stockpiles, uranium isotopes
identical to those found at Parchin and Hassan Nasrallah's fingerprints.
I wonder if there is anything he could say that FOX would start to question before
pounding the lectern. Of course they also have the same blind trust in anyone from the
Pentagon or CIA.
no references except memory- Nasser asked the UN observers to leave, Egyptian airforce
buzzed Dimona, other than that only thing UAR did was to mobilize and close the red sea
port of Eilat , they did not initiate hostilities ,
Have the Israelis or the Americans released any satellite photos showing all those
smashed-to-pieces Iranian bases? So far all I have seen is a single video taken from an
Israeli drone as it made its death-dive onto an abandoned Syrian Pantsir-S1.
It took the Americans less than a day to release photos of the sites they struck in
their recent missile attack. Surely they have had enough time to collect all the photos
they need to do a damage-assessment.
Not abandoned. It had shot all its missiles and was traveling to a recharge depot. The
driver (Lt Colonel Ayham Habib) died on the spot and copilot (1st Lt. Ali Essa Mustafa)
later in hospital.
Having its radar shut off it was not trackable, yet the drone had locked it before (when
it was firing with radar on) and was visually following it.
Twitter user Walid says there was a misunderstanding with another AA operator (another
Pantsir?) about providing cover when this one was defenseless.
Anyway, the astounding statements of Israeli military (depleted Iranian force - months
back of timeline in build-up of Iranian infrastructure - blahblah) are crap.
My take is that Netanyahu had pressed Putin in that a powerful anti-Iranian action was
unavoidable, and had been told something like "Iranians not my business, my 'red line'
are Russian servicemen and Assad's life and palace".
Bibi expected the usual stroll through AD, killing some Syrians, hitting some
Iranian/Hezbollah depots, coordinated Jihadists hopelessly attacking SAA checkpoints,
back home for early breakfast.
Now they are in panic. SAA didn't just defended but retaliated! the much famed Iron Dome
exposed as not-so-invulnerable! WTF...?
Israel can't afford having civilians in shelters all the time, it's a blow to the sense
of military superiority that they had to rebuild after 2006 debâcle against
Hezbollah.
That's why the boasting and bragging: "we destroyed The Iranian Threat, hence we need no
more attacking at the moment". IKR?
If more attacks come soon, I am wrong. ATM I agree with some Syrian commentators: the
Rules of Engagement are changed, Golan is now free game, Israel should adjust its plans
to that for the immediate future.
I think you raised a very important question: why? I studied this question as much as
I could. The best answer to the question "why" is in history. Before WWI, in Germany was
the situation the way that most money bags and other very influential people were strong
supporters of Zionism and harshly suppressed any dissenting opinion. the famous German
Rabbi Felix Goldmann, life-long figther against anti-semitism and nazism, therefore felt
so threatened by Zionists and their collaborators, that he published his most important
heritage, as I see it, not under his own name, but the anonymous label of an
"Anti-zionist committee" in Berlin 1913. His most important insight, as I see it, was
that the racist German and European stream of thought and Zionism, that later developed
into German Nazism, shared the same ugly root: racism. A couple of years ago I translated
a couple of sentences by Rabbi Goldmann into english. Quote begin:
If the "racial" moment has acquired a meaning in which nothing counts of everything
else, merits, virtues, striving and disposition, if the Jew is outlawed, if you want to
depress him into a pariah position, so it is a success, the national belief, the
chauvinistic racial madness of our times, has won in diligent work.
And this chauvinist, national racist madness is the theoretical basis, the spiritual
soil of Zionism! That's where it borrowed the specific features of it's being and it's
effectiveness! Even the utterance of this undeniable and undisputed fact contains the
most damning criticism of this pseudo messianic movement. With all clarity the
consequences must be imagined of what it must mean for the nature and manifestations of
Zionism that it grew up on the same marsh soil as the racial anti-Semitism, this scourge,
which we Jews are suffering under so horrible. And it's always the same water, may it now
be called Aryan anti-Semitic, or may it now be colored Jewish-national that comes from
the same poisoned wells, and no staining of the world can make it a healthy drink.
If you stand on the position that the national hate speech and racial anti-Semitism is
a crime against culture – and who would not – you must also condemn it's
brother in Jewish garb, the national Zionism, because it's results will be as pernicious
as those.
Quoet end.
I think that the most convincing answer to your question: why. Nazism and Zionism both
come from the ugly tree of racism, the typical hubris of that, and while the Nazist
branch of that school of thinking largely died with the German defeat in WWII, another
branch of the same school of thinking, Zionism, sadly, still thrives, and it never went
away from the ideological basics of racism, on what Zionism was founded on.
The booklet from Rabbi Felix Goldmann, which he published in the name of an
Anti-zionist comitee in Berlin, is transcripted here.
Russian presidential aide, Vladimir Kozhin, has just announced that Russia is not
delivering any S-300 AD missiles to Syria. (
http://tinyurl.com/yd4uddk6 ).
Coming after Netanyahu's visit, this indicates that Russia continues to play a neutral
role in the ME. It remains to be seen whether Russia obtained any assurances from
Netanyahu not to carry out any further attacks on Syria. It is possible that N used the
threat of US involvement to push Russia into this posture.
As I said earlier (on another thread), I think Russia wants to prevent the US from
moving into the ME (and providing its support and backing to the Saudis in their efforts
to use the Jihadis to dominate the ME).
From a political point of view, I would not characterise the Russian position as
"neutral", but as "complicated". It's what I would expect of Russia navigating the
complexities of the Middle East, with a state of limited power.
It's improbable that Russia will let Asad die. That would be totally against Russian
interests, as it would let loose the Jihadis on the Muslim territories in Russia,
preventing which may be the major motive in Russian policy. But it will also be Russian
policy to avoid World War 3. So a lot of havering is going on. They've done this before,
not fully supporting Asad, withdrawing Russian troops.
Personally I think Russian policy is pretty subtle, though others may disagree.
They've succeeded so far.
I generally agree with you re Russian interests -- avoid drawing the US into the ME (WW3
comes much higher on the escalation ladder!), and having Asad remain in control of Syria.
By "neutral" I was referring to their stance with respect to the Israel vs. Syria/Iran
tussle. I think they have got Israel to promise to not try and dethrone Asad. But that
agreement doesn't cover Iran in Syria. If Asad lets Iran (or Hizbullah) threaten Israel
from Syria, the Russians will not stop Israel from responding.
The policy itself is pretty simple; however, its execution is, as you say,
complicated.
Russia has twice sent clear signals to Israel to back off from its plan to destroy Syria,
Lebanon and then Iran.
Russia offered Lebanon a military cooperation package to enhance the Lebanese
military's capabilities. That would have indirectly supported Hizballah's capabilities
and made it more difficult for Israel to attack Lebanon.
Then the Russian offer of S-300's to Syria.
If the latter has been postponed again, it is disappointing.
If Russia thinks these little maneuvers are going to prevent Netanyahu from escalating
against Syria and Lebanon - and eventually Iran - they are very much mistaken.
Granted, Putin has to move cautiously. He doesn't want a war between Russia and Israel
and neither does Israel.
But the best outcome he can hope for with this sort of dithering is that it merely
delays the in my view inevitable time when Russia is going to have confront Israel in
Syria militarily.
"By "neutral" I was referring to their stance with respect to the Israel vs. Syria/Iran
tussle. I think they have got Israel to promise to not try and dethrone Asad."
In February the Russians put troops into Damascus in order to prevent a decapitation
strike. We're supposed to believe that the Israelis are of good faith?
Why Is Israel Behaving Like Hitler's Germany? by Publius Tacitus. 11 May 2018.
This is a specious comparison at best. False Flags are not unique to the Third Reich
and the Gleiwitz Incident was to provide long term political cover for the invasion and
occupation of a Sovereign State. The accusation against Iran for its almost certainly
mythical attack on the Golan Heights is simply a public relations convenience to cover a
tactical manoeuvre.
This said the parallels between N@zi Ideology and Jewish Belief are blatantly obvious
and have been noted numerous times, most famously and effectively by George Steiner in
his novel The Portage to San Cristobal of AH.
In this alternative history The Fuhrer has escaped the Berlin Bunker and sought refuge
in the jungles of the Amazon Basin where he is tracked down by a team of Jewish N@zi
hunters. Here due to the exigencies of the situation (it looks increasingly unlikely that
any of them will live to reach safety) the team decide to try him for his crimes and
appoint a native to judge his guilt or innocence. Steiner writes AH's defence brilliantly
but most devastatingly by his final observation. "Should you not honour me who have
made Zion a reality?"
It is a measure of the unsettling nature of the ideas in the book that Steiner himself
(he is Jewish) has been accused of anti-Semitism.
Supposedly the White House is not interested in attacking Iran militarily, but intends
to try to stir up Iranian opposition to the ruling government.
All I can say is: Good luck with that. Iran's population does not consider its form of
government to be "oppressive". While a lot of the population probably thinks its
government could do better - DUH! what population doesn't? - they aren't going to
overthrow it as a favor to the US.
And Israel certainly isn't going to go along with some lame effort to get the Iranians
to overthrow their own government. Israel wants a US military solution to Iran.
Period.
SSG;s 'white paper' is likely some variation of this plan:
<● The U.S. should introduce a resolution in the UN Security Council
calling for free and fair elections in Iran to be help immediately.
These elections must be monitored by the UN and include U.S. observers.
Russia and China are likely to veto such a resolution, of course. The UN
Security Council must be put on notice that any veto of this motion
will be regarded as the end of its legitimacy as a venue for addressing
the world's problems. If they fail us this time, a new organization
should be built by free nations to fulfill the purposes the United
Nations was meant to achieve.
● The U.S. Treasury Department should place immediate sanctions on
regime leaders and place any monies seized in a fund held in trust for a
Free Iranian Government. Corrupt officials have stolen the people's
wealth. The United States should lead an international effort to recover
as much of that money as possible. The funds can represent a first
foundation for the success of their new government.
● The United States should consider the establishment of a safe zone
in or near Iran, perhaps in the Kurdish region of Iran or northern Iraq.
Here regime opponents can gather and receive training in how to replace
their government, including lessons in statecraft, diplomacy, and
constitution-drafting.
● The President should consider a partial revocation of the travel
ban on Iranian nationals. Regime opponents who wish to come to the
United States to receive training in preparation for the replacement of
the corrupt regime should be welcome. This will show the truth of the
President's word that the United States is only opposed to the regime,
but has solidarity with the people of Iran.
● Finally, we endorse this call to instate new sanctions on Iran, reinstate
sanctions on the Iranian regime, or to refuse to continue to waive such sanctions. New
sanctions should target the regime specifically, taking care not to add to the suffering
of the people.
None of these guarantee success, and all come with major risks
associated. But absent U.S. leadership is meaningful concrete ways, the
regime will kill and imprison the protesters and another opportunity for
peace will have been lost. That will make the world less safe for
Americans and all others. The time for action is now.>
Alexander Mercouris weighs in on Israel's reasons for attacking Syria.
Explaining Israel's Syrian strike: Israel tries to reverse shift in military
balance
Latest Israeli strike primarily intended to defeat Syria's increasingly effective air
defence system; not targeted at Iran
http://theduran.com/israeli...
He believes the goal is mostly to redress the strategic balance. I think that's only a
small part of it. In my view the strike is just one more in the Israel game of escalating
military attacks on Syria until Syria responds sufficiently to enable Israel to entice
the US to attack Syria in a full-scale air campaign.
Israel has been engaging in this pattern since the first couple years of the Syrian
conflict. Israel repeatedly fired into Syria in alleged response to artillery and rocket
attacks into its territory - no doubt fired by ihadists under Israel's support. But
Assad's forces never returned fire until Russia entered the conflict. Now Syria is
willing to fire back, but Russia is only involved peripherally by utilizing their
superior radar systems integrated into the Syrian AD system.
Mercouris refers to this piece by Eric Zuess, which analyzes who is lying about who
started the attack - and concludes that Israel is likely the one who initiated the
situation.
Which side is lying about Israel's missile attack on Syria?
Analysis of reports show Israel's attack was 'pre-emptive' and unprovoked
http://theduran.com/which-l...
I agree. The proof is not irrefutable but there is reason to believe Israel started
it. And the reason remains the same: start a war between the US/Israel and Syria.
Russia doesn't want a war with the US or Israel over Syria. Neither the US nor Israel
wants a war with Russia over Syria. But Israel does want a war between the US and Syria,
as well as between Israel/the US and Hizballah.
These attacks are yet another attempt to get that going. And they will continue until
Russia is forced to engage Israel militarily over Syria.
Do any of you have any good references that address the issue of whether the Six-Day War
in June 1967 was also an unprovoked attack by Israel on an Arab state?
It's well established that Egypt had announced a blockade of Israel's access to the Red
Sea (international waters) via the Straits of Tiran. Israel has characterized this as an
act of war. So I think it is safe to say that Israel's attack was "provoked" - whether it
was legal under international law I don't know.
Israel Deceived the World in 1967, and Paid the Price for It in 1973
Israel pretended to be the victim during the Six-Day War, and succeeded in
deceiving the world. But it failed to prepare properly for the Yom Kippur War, fearing it
would be blamed for starting the next war
https://www.haaretz.com/isr...
I think it is generally conceded now that Israel launched a "preemptive" war in 1967
but that Egypt was not really intending to attack Israel, which makes the war a lot less
"preemptive" and more "premeditated and opportunistic" for Israel.
Bibi feels empowered with orange top in the white house but what is the goal?
Does Israel hope to use Iran as a pretext to significantly degrade the SAA now that
the Jihadists are mostly routed? Does bibi just think he can take cheap shots at Iran? Is
this perhaps a message to Russia or an attempt to create a rift between Russia and her
allies (Iran and Syria). Russia had done a lot in Syria but i wouldn't call Russia a
particularly good ally. Has Donald promised Bibi backing if Iran retaliates?
I also wonder why Bib is pulling this. There are lot of possibilities and it might
just be multi factorial.
Alaric,
I've posted before; Probably next year (unfinished business in Syria) the SAA &
Hezbollah are going to try to take the Golan Hts back. My latest evidence for this is
Bashar Jaffar (Syrian UN Amb) listing the areas the Syrian govt was going to re-take. The
last item on the list was the Golan Hts. The prospect of this battle frightens the IDF:
Battle from tidewater in Lebanon to the Jordanian border, Hezbollah, SAA, Iraqi Shia
militia & Iranian mercs (Afghani Shia). The IDF does not want to fight that battle
w/o air superiority.
Bibi also has a problem with the police. Any of the four corruption charges could take
him out of office. If he's convicted of a couple, or the fourth charge, he could go to
jail.
I'm starting to see Moscow's viewpoint: If Syria was supplied with S300, the Israelis
would go crazy to knock out those missile batteries. No telling how far they'd escalate.
Also Russia does not want that Arab attack to go in against the Golan Hts: There is a
danger of huge escalation.
From my point of view, the interesting thing about the Golan Hights is they are part of
Syria. I just watched a BBC host tie himself in knots trying to characterize the missile
strikes launched at Israeli positions in the Golan as aggression, while acknowledging
that Israel has invaded and is occupying that part of Syria.
Fighting for the Golan strikes me as a classic double bind for the western news media
- the more they cover it, the more they will be forced to either condemn Israel's
occupation of the Golan or admit that we in the west don't actually respect international
law.
I see zero likelihood that Syria will try to retake the Golan. It would merely be playing
into Israel and US hands, and result in both Israel and the US attacking Syria. Not even
Russia could prevent the US and Israel from starting a full-scale war with Syria without
risking WWIII - and certainly not if Assad is to blame for starting it. Therefore Russia
would never allow Assad to do this. And Iran can't do it without Assad and Russia's
blessing.
Russia is trying to contain Netanyahu's ambitions but it's not going to work. Israel
will continue to escalate until they are forced by military means to stop. Russia is
hoping it won't have to be the one to force Israel to stop, but I'm afraid that is a
forlorn hope. Syria will not be up to the task.
Richard,
Ever since Elijah Magnier mentioned the projected attack, I've been watching for evidence
to back up his thesis. I've seen 4 or 5 facts to support the thesis. A couple are: The
Syrians units trained by Hezbollah have been moved up to the border, the Afghani mercs.
have been housed in a camp near Damascus (for refitting?). Israel has attacked that
camp.
So it's not just Syria but also Hezbollah & all it's missiles.
I think there is a lot of screaming going on behind closed doors; Russia does not want
this operation to go in. I think Assad is up for it, especially given the list recited by
Amb. Jaffar. Hezbollah won't let Syria fight alone & besides they know they are #1 on
Israel's hate list. I can see how they think that if it's a fight between the Arabs (Sy,
Hezb, Afghani mercs & Iraqi Shia militia) with Iran much in background but not overt,
against Israel, the US might not intervene...
If the attack goes in, I'd expect the IDF to hold a line somewhere in the Golan.
Positional warfare could be bad for Israel though; steady production of body bags. Also,
if Hezbollah is in all the way, misille-ing Tel Aviv is probably also a game changer.
it is exceedingly rare for me to say, "Get a grip." 999 times out of 1000 it is said to
me. But...
The Russian Ministry of Defense has this to say,"MOSCOW, May 9. /TASS/. Between the
hours of 01:45 and 03:45 on May 10 the Israeli Armed Forces on the pretext of retaliation
for an attack against Israeli positions in the area of Golan heights by armed groups
dealt strikes against Syrian territory. Participating in the air raid were 28 Israeli
planes F-15 and F-16, which fired more than 60 air-to-surface missiles on different parts
of Syria. Also Israel launched more than ten tactical surface-to-surface missiles. The
attacks were against the deployment sites of Iranian armed groups and also Syrian air
defenses in the area of Damascus and in southern Syria. Syria's air defenses downed more
than half of the Israeli missiles. The damage caused to Iranian armed groups and also
Syria's military and civilian infrastructures are being specified."
The Israeli Ministry of Defense says this, ""We hit almost the entire Iranian
infrastructure in Syria. They must understand that if it rains here, it will pour there."
I am reminded of Oscar Zoroaster Phadrig Isaac Norman Henkle Emmannuel Ambroise Diggs.
They do go on to say, "I hope we have managed to end the new chapter of dealing with the
Iranian extremism for now." I daresay they do.
We have a model for how the United States would like to deal with the Middle East:
Raqqa. Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian Defence Ministry, said: "Raqqa has
inherited the fate of Dresden in 1945, wiped off the face of the Earth by Anglo-American
bombardments." From Wikipedia, "Around 80% of Raqqa had been left "uninhabitable" after
the battle, according to the UN". All that's missing is the radioactivity.
But there will be no nuclear conflict, and I hope and believe no new Raqqa's. The only
possible nuclear conflict in the world today was a first strike by the United States
against North Korea. President Trump has been maneuvered by the North Koreans and the
Chinese into a mental state where he dreams of a Nobel Peace Prize and has forgotten
about "Fire, fury, and, frankly, force." His base is chanting "Nobel Prize, Nobel Prize,"
not "Fire and Fury, Fire and Fury."
As a radio amateur always been fascinated by Gleiwitz b/c it's a wooden radio tower. from
wiki "The historic Gliwice Radio Tower in 2012. It is the tallest wooden structure in
Europe." Of course, for us, the U.S. has had its share of false flags and planned false
flags- Operation Northwoods for one, easily found on wikipedia. As for Israel, there is
no shortage, "the Lavon affair," for one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wi...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wi...
"... Israel has the leftover al Nusra and AQ in the southwest to keep the 4th DEZ in turmoil at Daraa and Suweida. ..."
"... Please allow me to rephrase your statement that Putin has "never shown courage". The correct statement is that Putin has "never done anything stupid". Now, that makes sense. See the difference? ..."
One common sense thought: no one wants a bigger or wider war. There is no nation that can
handle it.
The West has a strategy to support an insurgency using the leftovers and Kurds. We know the
Kurds in Syria will not fight Assad's forces.
So, there are probably 30,000 fighters of
various sorts the US and Turkey are still feeding and using.
As for the air space over Syria, that will eventually close to the US. All Putin has to do
is move S 400 75-100 kms closer toward the East border from the West enclaves where they now
defend.
The US will be grounded, unable to support their 14+ bases, and will have to leave.
Israel has the leftover al Nusra and AQ in the southwest to keep the 4th DEZ in turmoil at
Daraa and Suweida.
But no one wants to put their Armed Forces into Syria.
So, what happens tonight and the next few days is missiles strikes, unless Bolton can
convince the Military to do something enormous with a huge air strike. How Putin handles this depends on casualties and losses of Russian forces.
Since Russian advisers, Military Police and Reconciliation Officers are all over Syria
North to South, West to East, it will be sheer luck that none are struck by cruise missiles
or other weapons if they come into play.
The Lord Has Risen, and the forces of evil are rabid for more Death and Destruction.
Not exactly sure. Putin can move S-400 close to US presence but in order to Ground US, he
needs to send a message saying that he can shoot them. And in all these episodes Putin never
showed the courage. So you could place S-500 on door step of US airbase but still they will
continue flying!
Please allow me to rephrase your statement that Putin has "never shown courage". The correct
statement is that Putin has "never done anything stupid". Now, that makes sense. See the
difference?
It is hard for me to put into words the utter disgust and anger I feel towards the zio con
clowns in wash dc being led by the nose by Israel/mossad. But I guess, what the hell-zios do
not care what average americas think or feel-they are the fodder..
Might be Israeli that pretends to be USA hoping that Syria or Russia will think it is USA and
fire at USA forces causing a wider war.. Israel has actually done actually this before.
"... Since Russia has asked Lebanon for a military cooperation agreement, which I believe was intended as a warning to Israel not to attack Lebanon again - because of the threat that Syria would become involved - I suspect that Russia is well aware of Israel's intentions. ..."
"... The addition of a US base in Israel and a commitment of US forces to support Israel in their wars means that there will be an increased likelihood of US conflict with Russia if Russia intervenes in a Israeli/US attack in Lebanon which extends into Syria. ..."
Apparently Israel held a command-level war game under cover of the Cobra exercise where
they continued to plan an attack on Lebanon and Syria, as well as what to do if "the Russian
made trouble."
"We can achieve decisive victory over Hezbollah, and we don't need help from a single
American soldier, but we cannot fight Iran alone," he stated last year. "I consider future
cooperation with the U.S. much more important than anything we've had in the past."
Reading that in reverse supports my contention that Israel both continues to intend to
degrade Hizballah and Syria's ability to be effective actors in a US/Israel war with Iran,
and also that they intend to recruit the US in their next attack on Lebanon, with the goal of
extending that war into Syria.
And that is regardless of the Russian presence in Syria.
Since Russia has asked Lebanon for a military cooperation agreement, which I believe
was intended as a warning to Israel not to attack Lebanon again - because of the threat that
Syria would become involved - I suspect that Russia is well aware of Israel's
intentions.
The addition of a US base in Israel and a commitment of US forces to support Israel in
their wars means that there will be an increased likelihood of US conflict with Russia if
Russia intervenes in a Israeli/US attack in Lebanon which extends into Syria.
I don't think Russia would come to Lebanon's aid directly in support of Hizballah, but
it's quite likely Russia would intervene if that war extended into Syria. Russia doesn't have
the forces in country in Syria to directly intervene militarily but it could add additional
forces or use its regional capabilities to intervene enough to complicate Israeli/US actions
in Syria. But not without increasing the probability of escalation to a dangerous degree.
If Israel is not persuaded to stand down on its intentions to attack Hizballah and Syria,
things could get much more ugly than the present Syrian crisis.
I'd like to know what is it the Zionists really want. Would they be satisfied with the West
Bank? Would they be satisfied with the part of the Golan Heights they grabbed or do they want
all of it? Will they quit trying to grab the waters of the Litani River in Lebanon since
reportedly through desalination they have more water than they need?
You are dealing with a country that refuses to fix its borders? If it were given what it
wanted, would it then let its neighbors go in Peace? Why did they not accept the Saudi Beirut
Peace initiative? Why was Rabin assassinated? Why did Olmeret suddenly get removed due to a
criminal inquiry?
I used to read Haaretz at one time until it went behind a paywall. I get some insight from
Uri Avnery, b/ I'm truly lost at what they really want. Is it from the river to the river?
Wadi-el-Arish to the Euphrates?
Do they really want to continue as the Lacedomnians lording it over the Helots? The
Israeli Firsters have destroyed secular Irak, now working on Syria, and would love to destroy
Lebanon and turn it into a choatic non-functioning state. They would love to destroy Iran as
a semi-secular civiliazton. Trump advisor Gen Michael Flynn, for all his good qualities, has
a hard-on for the Persians. So does Trump. Really worrying. You cannot have a concert of
nations resolution w/o bringing Iran to the table.
Of course, Trump will make them concessions. Adelson gave him some $30 mil for his
campaign and Ivanka has converted to Judaism. He will recognize Jerusalem/Quds as the capital
of Israel. that's a foregone conclusion.
But the glimmer of hope is that he has said, that he would try to be neutral and work out
a Peace agreement.
Again I quote from George Mitchell:
"First, I believe there is no such thing as a conflict that can't be ended. Conflicts are
created and sustained by human beings. They can be ended by human beings. No matter how
ancient the conflict, no matter how much harm has been done, peace can prevail."
Will - Israel wants strategic depth in spades. Israel feels, legitimately or not, insecure.
I've heard politicians in Israel give an outline of Israel's "needs". Yes, they want the West
Bank but leaving the Palestinians autonomy in their cities. They are going to keep the Golan
and yes want enough of Lebanon to control the headwaters of the Litani and it's water. You
are correct that Israel does not need the Litani water but they want it to weaken Lebanon and
especially Hizballah. Last but not least they want the Sinai back.
This would give them strategic depth in the North, South and West. They are growing their
Naval capabilities to cover the East.
"... Russia isn't in Syria to solve the world's problems. It is there to destroy the takfiris before they can be unleashed on Russian territory. It is also there to aid an ally. It is doing this with minimal forces. The S-400 systems are there to defend Russian assets, no more. Shooting down an Israeli aircraft, which caused minimal damage, would lead to unpredictable consequences and distractions from the prime task. ..."
"... Let's be clear that "islamic" means UK spookie. Muslim Brotherhood, the house of Saud, and the rest of it are Anglo-Zionist creatures. Never forget. ..."
"... If Assad "welcomes US troops to fight ISIS" (they're already there...illegally...and ISIS is a US creation as he well knows) he is a fool or someone is putting words in his mouth or, possibly, he was misquoted. ..."
"... One needs only look at Libya's fate to see what happens to naive leaders who trust the US and assume its leaders and corporate "partners" are acting in good faith. Rule #1 Never EVER trust the USG and its mouthpieces. ..."
"... These kind of provocative operations have a very long history; they're been continually used by various actors in the Deep State to sabotage diplomatic peace efforts - from the Eisenhower era (the U2 flights taking place without Eisenhower's approval) to Ashton Carter's attack on Syrian government forces in Deir-Ezzor, the signature is pretty obvious. ..."
An Israeli military plane carried out an airstrike on the Syrian government forces stationed in
the western countryside of Damascus near the Lebanese border.
A Syrian military source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said an Israeli fighter jet crossed
into Syria's airspace at around 3 a.m. local time (0100 GMT) on Wednesday after circling the skies
of Lebanon's Beqaa Valley and flying above the eastern city of Baalbek, al-Masdar News reported.
i wonder if there really are 's-400' anti-aircraft defensees in syria. and if there are, i wonder
if they really work.
i remember paveway explaining to me, the last time the israelis bombed syria, that in fact the
airplane responsible was flying over israel and had fired a cruise missile, or someother type of
'standoff' weapon, across the border at that time.
the reasoning for not responding to that attack was said to be that the defensive weapon was much
too expensive to waste on the missile, and that shooting down the plane over israel that actually
launched the attack ... just couldn't be done.
that's obviously so emboldened the israelis that they now fly right into syrian airspace, like
they own it. in fact they do.
the russian airforce is so busy acting as the turkish airforce over the portion of syria that
erdogan has laid claim to that they cannot be bothered to defend hezbollah .., who've been doing
a lot of the heavy lifting on the ground in syria.
tee-rump
begins
to end cia support of al-cia-duh in syria in return for russia's looking
the other way when israel kills syria's allies and destroys their armory?
Russia isn't in Syria to solve the world's problems. It is there to destroy the takfiris before
they can be unleashed on Russian territory. It is also there to aid an ally. It is doing this with
minimal forces. The S-400 systems are there to defend Russian assets, no more. Shooting down an Israeli
aircraft, which caused minimal damage, would lead to unpredictable consequences and distractions
from the prime task.
Apparently, Defense is still seriously considering sending troops into Syria on the pretext of fighting
ISIS. When asked about this at the press briefing today, Spicer, immediately brought up the fact
that everyone knows Trump is considering "safe harbors" (he expressed it that way first) or safe
zones in the context of this troop deployment issue. So was this a slip up? He then said he would
get back to report further on the issue.
So, what happened to Syrian sovereignty and International Law? What's Trump up to? So now that
Israel again bombed a Syrian base, is the U.S. going to join in this breach of sovereignty as well?
There's only one country that got permission to operate inside Syria militarily; that's Russia.
So now that Putin has remained silent on Israel bombing Syrian bases, will he remain silent when
the U.S. joins in on the action?
I believe the last time Israel and the U.S. breached the sovereignty of a country together to
conduct military agression was in Lebanon, and look what happened there!
So, what happened to Syrian sovereignty and International Law? What's Trump up to?
He is up to claiming (at least some) credit for defeating ISIS. Considering US' track record of
the last 16+ years in military (and geopolitical) affairs this is not an unreasonable thing to do
from American point of view.
Assad also made a point a few weeks ago to single out Iran, not Russia, as Syria's closest partner
in its ongoing fight against Salafist/Wahhabi mercenaries.
Assad and Iran have always said dividing Syria is not an option; Russia has stated otherwise.
Putin has allowed Turkish troops into Syria. Why? How does this sit with Iran and the Syrian government?
If Assad "welcomes US troops to fight ISIS" (they're already there...illegally...and ISIS is a
US creation as he well knows) he is a fool or someone is putting words in his mouth or, possibly,
he was misquoted.
One needs only look at Libya's fate to see what happens to naive leaders who trust the US and
assume its leaders and corporate "partners" are acting in good faith. Rule #1 Never EVER trust the
USG and its mouthpieces.
Note on the Israeli attacks on Syrian government forces and the lack of response from Syria or Russia:
This is called a provocative effort; what Israel desires above all else is to have its jets attacked
by Syrian or Russian forces, which would allow Israel to use this as a causus belli to attempt to
seize more land from Syria and Lebanon in the name of national security.
Turkey's shoot-down of a Russian jet was a very similiar operation, aimed at drawing in NATO to
attack Syria (this was pre-coup effort, however, before Russia hit the economic sanctions button
on Turkey).
These kind of provocative operations have a very long history; they're been continually used
by various actors in the Deep State to sabotage diplomatic peace efforts - from the Eisenhower era
(the U2 flights taking place without Eisenhower's approval) to Ashton Carter's attack on Syrian government
forces in Deir-Ezzor, the signature is pretty obvious.
Another point: Clinton would have had a far easier time carrying out this agenda than anyone in
the Trump administration will. And this is really all about one thing: preserving that massive $600
billion a year military-industrial budget and preventing a much-needed 50% cut, with the other $300
billion directed mainly to domestic infrastructure problems, i.e. roads, bridges, dams, public buildings,
water supply systems, etc. etc. etc. Until that's done, the United States will continue to look more
and more like the corrupt bloated Soviet Union of the Brezhnev era, regardless of who sits in the
Oval Office.
"... As General Smedley Butler, twice awarded the Medal of Honor, said: War is a racket . Wars will persist as long as people see them as a "core product," as a business opportunity. In capitalism, the profit motive is often amoral; greed is good, even when it feeds war. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is willing to play along. It always sees "vulnerabilities" and always wants more money. ..."
"... Wars are always profitable for a few, but they are ruining democracy in America. Sure, it's a business opportunity: one that ends in national (and moral) bankruptcy. ..."
A good friend passed along an
article at Forbes from a month ago with the pregnant title, "U.S. Army Fears Major War Likely
Within Five Years - But Lacks The Money To Prepare." Basically, the article argues that war is possible
- even likely - within five years with Russia or North Korea or Iran, or maybe all three, but that
America's army is short of money to prepare for these wars. This despite the fact that America spends
roughly $700 billion each and every year on defense and overseas wars.
Now, the author's agenda is quite clear, as he states at the end of his article: "Several of the
Army's equipment suppliers are contributors to my think tank and/or consulting clients." He's writing
an alarmist article about the probability of future wars at the same time as he's profiting from
the sales of weaponry to the army.
As General Smedley Butler, twice awarded the Medal of Honor, said:
War is a racket
. Wars will persist as long as people see them as a "core product," as a business opportunity.
In capitalism, the profit motive is often amoral; greed is good, even when it feeds war. Meanwhile,
the Pentagon is willing to play along. It always sees "vulnerabilities" and always wants more money.
But back to the Forbes article with its concerns about war(s) in five years with Russia or North
Korea or Iran (or all three). For what vital national interest should America fight against Russia?
North Korea? Iran? A few quick reminders:
#1: Don't get involved in a land war in Asia or with Russia (Charles XII, Napoleon, and Hitler
all learned that lesson the hard way).
#2: North Korea? It's a puppet regime that can't feed its own people. It might prefer war to distract
the people from their parlous existence.
#3: Iran? A regional power, already contained, with a young population that's sympathetic to America,
at least to our culture of relative openness and tolerance. If the US Army thinks tackling Iran would
be relatively easy, just consider all those recent "easy" wars and military interventions in Iraq,
Afghanistan, Libya, Syria
Of course, the business aspect of this is selling the idea the US Army isn't prepared and therefore
needs yet another new generation of expensive high-tech weaponry. It's like convincing high-end consumers
their three-year-old Audi or Lexus is obsolete so they must buy the latest model else lose face.
We see this all the time in the US military. It's a version of planned or
artificial obsolescence . Consider the Air Force. It could easily defeat its enemies with updated
versions of A-10s, F-15s, and F-16s, but instead the Pentagon plans to spend as much as $1.4 trillion
on the shiny new and
under-performing F-35 . The Army has an enormous surplus of tanks and other armored fighting
vehicles, but the call goes forth for a "new generation." No other navy comes close to the US Navy,
yet the call goes out for a new generation of ships.
The Pentagon mantra is always for more and better, which often turns out to be for less and much
more expensive, e.g. the F-35 fighter.
Wars are always profitable for a few, but they are
ruining democracy in America. Sure, it's a business opportunity: one that ends in national (and
moral) bankruptcy.
William J. Astore is a retired lieutenant colonel (USAF). He taught history for fifteen years
at military and civilian schools and blogs at
Bracing Views . He can be reached at [email protected]. Reprinted
from Bracing Views with the author's permission.
The Last but not LeastTechnology is dominated by
two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand ~Archibald Putt.
Ph.D
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