Belgian daily newspaper Het Laatste Nieuws examined the tests carried out by AZ Delta, one
of the largest labs in the country, and made a stunning discovery. Almost half of all positive
cases reported throughout June, July and August were actually people with an old infection.
The problem, it turns out, lies in the PCR Covid-19 tests. The paper reports that scientific
data reveals virus particles can be detected up to 83 days after the actual infection. This led
to instances where people were no longer contagious, but were still registered as positive
cases. According to HLN, all of these people had to be quarantined.
Belgian experts sounded the alarm in mid-July, when coronavirus numbers spiked after a
relief in June, and even insisted that the second wave had already begun for the country.
"We may have had to deal with old infections largely in the summer months," the lab's
clinical biologist Frederik Van Hoecke told the paper.
"Following PCR-confirmation of the President's diagnosis, as a precautionary measure he
received a single 8 gram dose of Regeneron's polyclonal antibody cocktail . He
completed the infusion without incident. In addition to the polyclonal antibodies, the
President has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and a daily aspirin."
When the cookie crumbled, no hydroxycloroquine was taken - even in a case of of initial
phase of the disease. It is below even a single aspirin in the COVID-19's treatment food
chain (which is being ministered, among other supplements, just to keep Trump's body strong
while the main drug takes effect, as is normal to old patients).
On the bright side, at least we know the name of the real deal: Regeneron.
"... Given what's at stake, Bramstedt proposes an overhaul of the submissions process to make it more efficient, while also introducing mandatory ethics and integrity training for researchers. ..."
"... "Research has the potential to enter the public domain and be used by many stakeholders, including governments and policy makers, so the data must be robust," she concludes. ..."
A leading ethicist is
sounding the alarm over a flood of potentially substandard pandemic research which may endanger
lives through ill-informed public policy, while damaging medical and scientific practice itself
in the process.
There has been a surge of almost 4,000 recently-published papers related to Covid-19, many
of which have been of questionable quality, according to Professor Katrina Bramstedt from Bond
University, Queensland, who is also secretary general at the Luxembourg Agency for Research
Integrity.
Bramstedt recently published her own study examining the poor
quality of Covid-19 research, which forms the basis of her recent criticisms.
Amid the rush to print the latest updates and 'breakthroughs' in Covid-19 research, there
has been a slew of retracted research papers, following an unprecedented number of submissions
to pre-print servers, which carry out fewer quality assurance and due diligence checks than
established medical journals.
"No research team is exempt from the pressures and speed at which COVID-19 research is
occurring. And this can increase the risk of honest error as well as deliberate
misconduct," Bramstedt says.
The rapid spread of the pandemic and the growing public thirst for information forced
researchers into overdrive looking for treatments, vaccines, and cures potentially endangering
patients, medical practitioners, and potentially government policy.
As of July 31, 2020, 19 published articles and 14 preprints about Covid-19 have been
retracted, withdrawn or been seriously called into question with regards to the quality of
their data. Over 57 percent of these papers come from Asia, over half of which came from
China.
There were concerns reported over falsified data, issues with methodology, irregularities in
interpretation of data, and conclusions among a multitude of other issues.
Even the paragons of medical research best practice, the Lancet and New England Journal of
Medicine, were forced to retract two preprints and two research papers due to the presence of
unverified data shared by all four.
"Patient harm that is significant, permanent and irreversible could result from using
faulty research results from preprints as well as published papers," she adds.
Bramstedt highlights the time and resource constraints under which researchers, their
supervisors, as well as publishers and their editors are operating under as a major factor in
the plethora of poor quality research.
Add to the mix the fact that many peer reviewers work on a voluntary basis with competing
demands on their time, especially as they face uncertainty through the pandemic, and issues
with quality control are largely inevitable.
At the same time, convening cross-disciplinary meetings of leading immunologists,
microbiologists, and lung disease specialists on a consistent basis to share, review, and
discuss research during such trying times is increasingly difficult.
Given what's at stake, Bramstedt proposes an overhaul of the submissions process to make it
more efficient, while also introducing mandatory ethics and integrity training for
researchers.
"Research has the potential to enter the public domain and be used by many stakeholders,
including governments and policy makers, so the data must be robust," she concludes.
Think your friends would be interested? Share this story!
Medical research has for long been diluted in quality by inherently inconsequential studies,
incompetently designed and/or executed studies, and pressure to value quantity over quality.
Mediocrity and worse abounds among researchers. Thus, Bramstedt's findings are all too
plausible.
Tango 8 hours ago 2 Oct, 2020 08:42 AM
Unfortunately this "ethicist" doesn't focus on the quackery that has come from the leading
government experts and researchers including Ferguson, Drosten, Zambon, Fauci, Holmes,
Rambaut, Burioni and all the rest.
Hanonymouse Tango 1 hour ago 2 Oct, 2020 03:21 PM
Yeah epidemiology used to be about tracking a disease, not a form of government... If only
these constant lockdowns and re-openings weren't destroying people's lives then I would find
it funny that politicians think they can chase statistics that lag by 2+ weeks and have it
mean anything. But it IS destroying people's lives. Those businesses and jobs are not coming
back once this mess is over.
diessa 8 hours ago 2 Oct, 2020 07:58 AM
wave of fraud and quackery in medical research re convid, actually sums it up!
Timkun 3 hours ago 2 Oct, 2020 01:09 PM
Research is an expensive endeavour. Management typically doesn't like it, because there is
usually no profit. At the university level, many "experts" are ego driven, find it hard to
admit that their theory may be wrong. IMO from years working in research, I find that because
so much money is on the line, today, research is less of an exact science. The reason; more
money and recognition for being first.
Count_Cash 8 hours ago 2 Oct, 2020 08:21 AM
Demand has a habit of overwhelming any system. Of course Covid-19 has spurred increased
research - it should have. So the system has broken and needs a few changes to make it more
efficient..... However, when there is a huge financial benefit in driving the demand, you may
well find that no matter what you do, a way will be found around it. That is the bigger
issue!
Gerald Comeau Count_Cash 7 hours ago 2 Oct, 2020 09:16 AM
Demand? This has little to do with demand? It seems to me greed and opportunism on the part
of scientists aspiring career advancement is more in line, with what is going on, than
demand.
eyeofmice 7 hours ago 2 Oct, 2020 09:21 AM
check out a real doctors Dr. Andrew Kaufman and Dr. Vernon Coleman who are exposing this hoax
and are being censored.
Logicthought 7 hours ago 2 Oct, 2020 09:39 AM
Medical Research has brought the Medical Profession into disrepute ...
"... Virtually every aspect of the Syrian opposition was cultivated and marketed by Western government-backed public relations firms, from their political narratives to their branding, from what they said to where they said it. ..."
"Western government-funded intelligence cutouts trained Syrian opposition leaders,
planted stories in media outlets from BBC to Al Jazeera, and ran a cadre of journalists. A
trove of leaked documents exposes the propaganda network."
"Leaked documents show how UK government contractors developed an advanced infrastructure of
propaganda to stimulate support in the West for Syria's political and armed opposition.
Virtually every aspect of the Syrian opposition was cultivated and marketed by Western
government-backed public relations firms, from their political narratives to their branding,
from what they said to where they said it.
The leaked files reveal how Western intelligence cutouts played the media like a fiddle,
carefully crafting English- and Arabic-language media coverage of the war on Syria to churn out
a constant stream of pro-opposition coverage.
US and European contractors trained and advised Syrian opposition leaders at all levels,
from young media activists to the heads of the parallel government-in-exile . These firms also
organized interviews for Syrian opposition leaders on mainstream outlets such as BBC and the
UK's Channel 4.
More than half of the stringers used by Al Jazeera in Syria were trained in a joint US-UK
government program called Basma, which produced hundreds of Syrian opposition media
activists.
Western government PR firms not only influenced the way the media covered Syria, but as the
leaked documents reveal, they produced their own propagandistic pseudo-news for broadcast on
major TV networks in the Middle East, including BBC Arabic, Al Jazeera, Al Arabiya, and Orient
TV .
These UK-funded firms functioned as full-time PR flacks for the extremist-dominated Syrian
armed opposition. One contractor, called InCoStrat, said it was in constant contact with a
network of more than 1,600 international journalists and "influencers," and used them to push
pro-opposition talking points.
Another Western government contractor, ARK, crafted a strategy to "re-brand" Syria's
Salafi-jihadist armed opposition by "softening its image ." ARK boasted that it provided
opposition propaganda that "aired almost every day on" major Arabic-language TV networks."
"The Western contractor ARK was a central force in launching the White Helmets operation.
The leaked documents show ARK ran the Twitter and Facebook pages of Syria Civil Defense,
known more commonly as the White Helmets.
ARK also facilitated communications between the White Helmets and The Syria
Campaign , a PR firm run out of London and New York that helped popularize the White
Helmets in the United States.
It was apparently "following subsequent discussions with ARK and the teams" that The Syria
Campaign "selected civil defence to front its campaign to keep Syria in the news," the firm
wrote in a report for the UK Foreign Office." thegreyzone
--------------
Using really basic intelligence analytic tools; Occam's Razor, Walks like a duck,
Smileyesque back azimuth's, etc. it has been clear that the UK government has been deeply
involved in sponsoring and influencing the Syrian/ jihadi opposition in that miserable country.
The wide spread British Old Boys network of aspirants to the tradition of imperial manipulation
has been visible just below the surface if you had eyes to look and a brain to think.
A lot of the money for this folly came right out of USAID.
I object to the line in the article that they "played the media like a fiddle" - as it
implies the mainstream media is a victim as opposed to willing accomplice.
The American public very strongly told Obama they didn't want another invasion and war in
the middle east (red lines or not) so rather ineffective propaganda.
Moreover, I suspect that given the US public inattention to overseas events that do not
involve much US blood (in places they can not find on a map). Today's mess would be where
more or less the same if the entire IO had never happened - though maybe with less cynicism
of US/UK gov'ts and media.
OTH, it is curious how well the British Old Boys network (and US) aligns with Israeli
interests (and runs counter to US or British interests). Maybe grayzone will investigate that
(impressive) IO campaign. I think a small country in the middle east played US and UK elites
like a fiddle.
I've only given this article a cursory reading so far and it is clear that the Brits are
going balls to the wall on the PSYOPS/perception management front. This campaign flows
naturally from the strong material support for the Syrian "moderate rebels" provided by the
US, the Brits and probably others for years. We may still be blowing up IS jihadis, but we're
also supporting our own brand of jihadis around Al-Tanf, giving free hand to Erdogan's
jihadis along the Turkish-Syrian border and doing our best to stymie R+6 efforts to crush the
remaining jihadis and unite Syria.
The article focuses on the contractors role in PSYOP. I'm not sure if it mentions the
British government's role in this. The GCHQ's Joint Threat Research Intelligence Group
(JTRIG) probably manages most of those contractors. The British Army also has the 77th
Brigade. This brigade's slogan is: "behavioural change is our unique selling point". Gordon
MacMillan, a reserve officer with the 77th Brigade, is now Twitter's head of editorial
operations for the Middle East.
The 77th was formed in 2015 and subsumed the 15th Psychological Operations Group which was
headed by Steve Tathan, who went on to head the defence division of SCL, the now defunct
parent of Cambridge Analytica. I'm sure the 77th is capable of managing some of those
contractors, as well. I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few of contractors were also
reservists in the 77th.
I bet we're not letting the Brits have all the fun. The CIA Special Activities Center
(formerly SAD) includes the Political Action Group for PSYOP, economic warfare and
cyberwarfare. That dovetails nicely with what CENTCOM is doing in Syria. I knew some of those
guys a while back. I remember scaring them with some of my own anarchist hacker rantings when
I was penetrating those hackers.
Our Army has fours PSYOP groups brigade-sized), two active and 2 reserve. I would think
they have advanced their methodology since I took the course at Bragg. For a few years, they
were called military information support operations (MISO) groups rather than PSYOP groups.
They have since reverted to their PSYOP name although their activities are referred to as
MISO. I don't know what the difference is.
There is no such small country as you describe in the Near East.
There is an self-disciplined proxy force masquerading as a state which is mostly funded by
the United States to further the religious policies of the WASP Culture Continent.
It is no accident that in this context, the names of US and UK occur often in the same
sentences; one declared a crusade to wrestle control of Plastine from Muslims, and the otber
one carried out that crusade and escalated it.
That is also the reason that US cannot end the war over Palestine or leave Islamdom
(Oil, Geostrategic considerations, arms sales, Realpolitik are just pseudo-rationications
to obscure the real war.)
"WASP Culture" is into golfing, not crusading. Erik Prince and the religious
fundamentalists, maybe, but they don't drive US policy.
Russia and/or Chinese dominion over Eurasia cannot be permitted. Their means to achieve
that would be less ethical, not that the US or UK have been prince among men and salts of the
earth, as noted in the article.
The US has tried in vain to win over hearts and minds. It has been a mostly noble effort
to bring countries like Iraq and Afghanistan into the 21st century, but it was always more of
a losing game. The problem lies too much in Islam and tribal rivalries.
Truth be told: political operatives own and run our MSM. This is why the press is called
the 'Fourth Estate'.
They are more correctly described as a Fifth Column , one far more open and sworn to
destroy our country and its foundational citizens – and taxpayers – as any that
ever operated during World War II. You would think this would be of vital interest to people
who loudly declare themselves to be "Nazi-punchers", but who time and again show themselves to
be merely low-level street terrorists informed and inspired by Mao's Red Guard and the
irredeemable thugs of the African National Congress.
One wonders what's preventing them from
mimicking the Red Terror waged by the leftists of Spain, when the battle for "freedom" involved
the disinterment of the graves of Catholic clergy to better pose the corpses in blasphemous
positions. Imagine how depraved those Mostly Peaceful protesters had to have been for even a
leftist-supporting site such as Wikipedia to baldly state
The violence consisted of the killing of tens of thousands of people (including 6,832
Roman Catholic priests, the vast majority in the summer of 1936 in the wake of the military
coup), attacks on the Spanish nobility, industrialists, and conservative politicians, as well
as the desecration and burning of monasteries and churches.
Directly in the crosshairs this time are small and medium-sized owner-operated businesses
– the true backbone of American freedom and prosperity – who have largely been
sacrificed in exchange for the knock-kneed offerings of Danegeld from our giant conglomerates,
all of whom have prospered immensely from the suffering and privation brought on by the
Democratic lockdown of society – and the total shutdown of our economy.
Think! – have you read a single article charting how the government war on small
business directly enriched Amazon.com and
world's richest autocrat, Jeff Bezos? . who then funnels his windfall into a newspaper that
blatantly pimps for the Democratic Party, which translates into a vast payday for the DNC, not
least from its newly-approved partnership with the shadowy and many-tentacled Soros-surrogate
group, BLM?
The result is what you'd expect when a fringe group operates with the full cooperation and
partnership of major industry and both political parties (don't confuse Trump with a
standard-issue Republican, please – he may have terrible flaws, but that isn't one of
them) – 10% of the population holding the other 90% in a chokehold with only one set of
rules: no arrest and prosecution for Bolshevik violence and terror ..but the zero-tolerance
heavy hand of corrupt Leviathan coming down hard against any and all citizens who fight back
or, eventually – inevitably – who even struggle against their restraints.
Short of the sudden arrival of celestial horsemen to punish the guilty and reward the
set-upon, it has become clear that the only answer is the one that the Powers That Be claim to
be dead set against: racial separatism. (Particularly when we consider that all that will be
necessary to turn America into Hell on earth will be the adoption of Ibram Kendi's First Law,
sometimes known as equality of outcome :
To fix the original sin of racism, Americans should pass an anti-racist amendment to the
U.S. Constitution that enshrines two guiding anti-racist principals: Racial inequity is
evidence of racist policy and the different racial groups are equals.
Could any "amendment" be more terrifyingly totalitarian than this?)
White and black separation would, instead, accomplish two goals, both more important than
Kendi's quick fix: we would learn soon enough about actual equality of outcomes (which
is why no Communist, black or white, wants anything to do with the creation of one more failed
basket-case black state), and much more importantly, white families can sleep secure in their
beds at night, without worrying about Apache raids at midnight, egged on and recorded for
"posterity" by that Fourth Estate/Fifth Column referred to up top. Because the fact of the
matter is that, even should some combination of government and law-enforcement halt the burning
and looting of America – as things stand now, none of the worst malefactors will ever see
the inside of a prison cell .which means any ceasefire will only be temporary, to be violently
ripped asunder the moment they sense white Americans have at last lowered their guard once
more. And living in perpetual paranoid readiness for violent uprisings and mindless destruction
is no way to live at all.
Trump has it half right, a border wall is the answer: only it needs to run
lengthwise , between the Southern and Northern borders. If we don't use the next four
years to plan out such a separation, fretting over our children's children will be a fruitless
exercise – those who aren't murdered will be captured and 'go native' .and in case you
haven't looked at a globe lately, there's no place left to run.
As a recovering journalist, I can point out that even on a rinkydink rag in a small city,
where I got fired for being a real journalist back in the early '70's; he who owns the
presses and distribution networks calls the tune. It's a matter of working-class (no matter
how middle-class your income or social-status) versus the ownership class. The latter wins
every time.
Blood type may affect COVID-19 outcomes, study shows 3 MINUTE READ
Blood type may play a key role in determining who contracts COVID-19 and how severe the
illness becomes, according to a recent report
published in the New England Journal of
Medicine (NEJM).
Researchers studied 1,610 COVID-19 positive patients with respiratory failure.
"Our genetic data confirm that blood group O is associated with a risk of acquiring Covid-19
that was lower than that in non-O blood groups, whereas blood group A was associated with a
higher risk than non-A blood groups," researchers concluded.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Looking for the latest on the CORONAVIRUS? Read our daily updates
HERE .
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Study participants were spread throughout seven hospitals in the Italian and Spanish
epicenters of the pandemic and each were defined as having "severe" respiratory disease; those
patients were compared to approximately 2,000 healthy individuals.
Based on the early data and despite the relatively small sample size, the study corroborates
other reports, including one from Wuhan, China, where
the SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak originated.
Yet inherent limitations of the NEJM study mean it's too soon to definitively link blood
type to COVID-19 outcomes.
"I do believe there is likely a connection, and the question is: What does this word
'outcome' mean?" said Ang Li, M.D., an assistant professor of hematology and oncology at
Baylor College of Medicine . "The cases are
not a study of all COVID patients versus all non-COVID patients, and it's not a study of all
severe COVID patients versus all non-severe COVID patients. It's comparing the severe COVID
patients versus everyone else without COVID. So, it's hard to know if it's an increased
susceptibility to infection or a severity question."
Still, Li said, the data suggests that a connection may exist. If it holds, he said, the
conclusion would follow results from a 2005 study published in JAMA (the Journal of
the American Medical Association) examining SARS-CoV-1 -- the "original" SARS virus that
created an outbreak in 2003. That study also found an association between ABO blood groups and
disease susceptibility, with individuals with Type O less susceptible to that virus, as
well.
Scientists do not know exactly why blood type could influence a person's susceptibility to
these viruses, but authors of the NEJM paper suggest that variations in biologic mechanisms in
ABO blood groups may play a role, specifically in their immune response.
"We have different antibody profiles based on our ABO blood type," Li said. "Also, there are
some theories about how some of these ABO genes, based on the protein they're encoding, might
affect some of the receptors where the virus binds and can alter how someone becomes more or
less susceptible to the virus."
A person's blood type is determined by the presence or absence of specific antigens -- A and
B -- which are molecules on red blood cells that trigger an immune response. A person with Type
A blood has the A antigen on red cells and a B antibody on their plasma; a person with Type B
has the B antigen on red cells and A antibodies on their plasma. Individuals with Type AB have
both A and B antigens on their red cells, but neither on their plasma, and those with Type O
have neither A nor B antigens on their red cells, but both antibodies are present on their
plasma.
One theory is that because the immune systems of people with Type O blood already have
antibodies for both A and B, their bodies are more equipped to identify foreign proteins --
including those on the surface of viruses.
"There are potentially some changes in the immunogenicity in the human host based on the ABO
typing," Li said.
Some of the conditions observed in COVID-19 patients -- including blood clots, strokes and
thromboembolisms -- may also vary in severity based on blood type, adding another possible
explanation, Li added.
"In the ABO blood group, there is evidence that there is increased susceptibility in Type A
versus Type O for increased risk for venous thromboembolism, such as pulmonary embolism and
deep vein thrombosis," Li said. "That has been confirmed in multiple different studies."
In addition to finding a potential link between blood type and COVID-19 severity, authors of
the NEJM paper detected a cluster of six genes with potential relation to COVID-19 severity, as
well. The authors reiterated that further study was necessary for both connections, writing
that the "pragmatic aspects leading to the feasibility of this massive undertaking in a very
short period of time during the extreme clinical circumstances of the pandemic imposed
limitations that will be important to explore in follow-up studies."
People with blood type O appear to have a greater form of protection against coronavirus
compared to those with other blood types, early data produced by a US genomics firm
suggests.
More than 750,000 individuals have so far participated in an ongoing study conducted by
23andMe, the California-based company best known for direct-to-consumer genetic testing, which
is examining the genetic make-up of SARS-CoV-2.
The preliminary data, which has not been peer-reviewed, shows that people with type O blood
were on average 14 per cent less likely than other blood types to get Covid-19 and 19 per cent
less likely to be hospitalised, after accounting for age, sex, ethnicity and
co-morbidities.
These findings reflect similar results from other studies that have shown people with type O
blood seem to report fewer incidents of infection and severe illness.
Among respondents to the 23andMe survey, the proportion of respondents reporting a positive
test for Covid-19 was highest among those with the AB blood type.
Read more How to help the elderly and vulnerable during the coronavirus How to help the
elderly and vulnerable during the coronavirus How to feel less anxious about the coronavirus
How to feel less anxious about the coronavirus How to be productive when working from home
during coronavirus How to be productive when working from home during coronavirus Which
countries around the world has coronavirus spread to? Which countries around the world has
coronavirus spread to? The dirty truth about washing your hands The dirty truth about washing
your hands The company is still recruiting for its study, and is currently seeking 10,000
participants who have been diagnosed and hospitalised with Covid-19.
In March, researchers at the Zhongnan Hospital at Wuhan University examined blood group
patterns of 2,173 people who had been diagnosed with the disease and found patients with blood
type A had a "significantly higher" rate of infection.
Lead researcher Wang Xinghuan said people with blood type A may need "particularly
strengthened personal protection" to keep their chances of infection lower, and infected
patients with that specific blood type may need "more vigilant surveillance and aggressive
treatment".
✕ More recently, Italian and Spanish scientists noted that the gene region which
codes for blood type is associated with elevated levels of key immune molecules.
In their study, which was published earlier this month, DNA samples were extracted from
1,980 patients in hotspot sites such as Milan and Barcelona who were hospitalised for
respiratory failure. Their analysis showed a higher risk for A-positive individuals and a
protective element among blood type O.
Research conducted into the 2002 SARS epidemic supports the O blood type protection theory
for the two coronaviruses.
Scientists at a Hong Kong hospital analysed an infected patient who came into contact with
45 healthcare workers. Of 18 people with type blood O, eight became infected (44 per cent),
compared to the other 27 people having other blood types, of whom 23 contracted the virus (85
per cent, or almost twice as much).
Blood type can influence blood clotting – one of the pathologies seen among seriously
ill Covid-19 patients. People with type O blood have lower levels of proteins that promote
blood clotting.
To explore any relationship between the ABO blood group and the COVID-19 susceptibility, we
compared ABO blood group distributions in 2,173 COVID-19 patients with local control
populations, and found that blood group A was associated with an increased risk of infection,
whereas group O was associated with a decreased risk.
Results: The most frequently detected blood group was blood group A (57%) amongst the
COVID-19 patients. This was followed by the blood group O (24.8%). The blood group types did
not affect the clinical outcomes. Blood group A was statistically significantly more frequent
among those infected with COVID-19 compared to controls (57% vs 38%, p <0.001; OR: 2.1). On
the other hand, the frequency of blood group O was significantly lower in the COVID-19
patients, compared to the control group (24.8% vs 37.2%, p: 0.001; OR: 1.8).
Conclusions: The results of the present study suggest that while the blood group A might
have a role in increased susceptibility to the COVID-19 infection, the blood group O might be
somewhat protective. However, once infected, blood group type does not seem to influence
clinical outcome.
In March, as the United States faced a shortage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests to determine who was currently infected with the
virus, the Food and Drug Administration began allowing antibody tests into the country without FDA review or formal clearance.
A COVID-19 molecular diagnostic test, sometimes referred to as a virology test, is often conducted through a nasal or throat
swab. It is designed to detect if you presently have the COVID-19 virus.
A COVID-19 antibody test, or serology test, usually involves a blood sample and determines the presence of antibodies, which may
signal that you previously had the viral infection.
"The two different types of tests give us complementary information about the pandemic," said Dr. Alex Marson, an infectious
disease specialist and the director of the Gladstone UCSF Institute for Genomic Immunology. "The one tells us about who's
actively infected. The other tells us who has been infected."
Dr. Marson and Dr. Patrick Hsu, an assistant professor of bioengineering at the University of California, Berkeley both told 60
Minutes it is presently unknown if a positive antibody test means protection from future infection.
"We do not know if a positive antibody test means that you have protective immunity," said Dr. Hsu. "It will certainly mean that
in some cases, but how much, and for how long, and how many times? We do not yet know. People should not assume that, if you have
a positive antibody test that you're immune, [that] you don't need to wear a mask, and [that] you don't need to socially
distance."
A small sample size study from China published on June 18 in
Nature
Medicine
found antibodies could fade in as soon as two to three months after the time of infection.
Both Dr. Marson and Dr. Hsu were interviewed by 60 Minutes correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi as part of a three-month investigation
into the accuracy of antibody tests available in the U.S. The physicians assembled a team of scientists to study the accuracy of
COVID-19 antibody tests in early March.
The accuracy of antibody tests are measured by their sensitivity and specificity. The sensitivity refers to a test's ability
to determine if someone has COVID-19 antibodies present in his or her body. The specificity refers to a test's ability to
distinguish who does not have COVID-19 antibodies.
In the early months of the pandemic, hundreds of companies from around the world were selling antibody tests in the U.S. with
varying levels of accuracy.
In May, the FDA amended its policy and began requiring developers of antibody tests to apply for emergency authorization and
submit data to prove their tests work. The FBI
warns
the
policy change has not stopped scammers from trying to infiltrate the U.S. market with fraudulent or inferior quality tests.
The FDA also teamed with the other government agencies including the National Institutes of Health to track the accuracy of some
antibody tests and on June 18 published
performance
results
for 21 of them.
The FDA's list includes both rapid serology tests that are often processed on-location and tests that require blood samples be
sent to a laboratory.
ARRAY / AP
"I will say that the best tests, especially tests where blood samples are being sent off to labs, seem to have responsible test
performance characteristics," Dr. Marson told Alfonsi. "Does that mean that they're perfect? No"
The FDA says the prevalence of COVID-19 in a specific area and amongst different groups of people will factor into the likelihood
of false positive or false negative results.
"I think when you ever get a positive test, it's important to undergo confirmatory testing, whether with a different antibody
test, or an independent test that looks for a different viral antigen, or a different antibody isotype," Dr. Hsu told 60 Minutes.
"This will be a way that we can guard against false positives. The statistical likelihood that you would test false positive
twice is generally quite unlikely if you use independent tests."
Getting multiple independent tests might be more difficult than it sounds.
Quest Diagnostics and LabCorp are two of the largest laboratory testing providers in the U.S. They have collectively processed
more than 3.5 million COVID-19 serology tests.
Quest told 60 Minutes it presently offers antibody tests manufactured by Abbott Laboratories, EUROIMMUN AG, and Ortho Clinical
Diagnostics. LabCorp said it currently uses serology tests made by Abbott and Roche.
Both lab companies told 60 Minutes they do not allow patients to choose which antibody test is used ahead of a sample being
processed.
Quest said the testing platform used to process a sample depends on a lab's volume and capacity. The company said it can run
200,000 serology tests per day and has conducted 2.1 million since April.
LabCorp said it began serology testing on a limited basis in March and now has the ability to run 300,000 samples a day. It does
not disclose the daily volume of antibody testing, but told 60 Minutes it has processed approximately 1.4 million tests so far.
As of June 27, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
reported
more
than 32 million tests have been processed in the U.S. with a positivity rate of 9%. The CDC declined to tell 60 Minutes the
specific sources of its aggregated data. A spokesperson told 60 Minutes the 32 million tests include both viral and antibody test
results. The CDC also says not all test results are reported to them.
A Government Accountability Office
report
released
on June 25, 2020 says the watchdog agency found that the CDC has made mistakes in its collection of data about COVID-19 testing.
It says the CDC was gathering data about testing that combined antibody tests with diagnostic tests in their overall testing
numbers, a practice that has been criticized by scientists as mixing apples and oranges.
The CDC made an effort to correct this practice and advise states to separate virology and serology test results, but the overall
testing numbers from prior to June may still be inaccurate. Given the problems with accuracy of some antibody tests, it is also
unclear whether all antibody positives should be considered true positives.
The video above was produced by Keith Zubrow and Sarah Shafer Prediger. It was edited by Sarah
Shafer Prediger.
People may have antibodies for at least four months after they get COVID-19, a study
published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine suggests.
The study pulled from a massive dataset from Iceland, looking for the presence of antibodies
in more than 30,000 blood samples. The samples came from three groups of people: those with
confirmed COVID-19 cases, those who had been exposed to the virus but weren't necessarily
infected, and those who had no known exposure.
The researchers focused on a small subset of 487 people who had had more than one antibody
test, which allowed researchers to see whether antibody levels remained stable or faded over
time. In this group, the researchers found, antibody levels increased in the first two months
after diagnosis and remained stable for the next two months.
Stefánsson said the study detected antibodies in a significant number of people who
had been asymptomatic and were never tested for COVID-19.
Not everyone developed antibodies after infection, the authors wrote, suggesting that some
people might have weaker immune responses to the virus. It's possible, however, that those
people had false positive diagnostic tests and were never sick in the first place.
The researchers noted several other interesting trends. Antibody levels were higher in older
patients and in those with more severe disease. Women also had lower antibody levels compared
to men, and smokers had lower antibody levels than nonsmokers.
"What they're seeing here is that they're inducing a pretty strong immune response," said
Jason Kindrachuk, an assistant professor of medical microbiology & infectious diseases at
the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg.
But while the data suggest that antibody levels remain stable for at least four months,
questions remain.
"What we don't know is really the million-dollar question: How do these antibodies reflect
immunity against this virus and inhibition of this virus," said Kindrachuk, who wasn't involved
with the research. "Just because you see antibodies being produced, it doesn't tell you that
those antibodies are going to act specifically against the virus."
In other words, it's unclear whether the antibodies will protect people from being
reinfected.
Confirmed cases of people being reinfected with the coronavirus are exceedingly rare. Last
week, it was reported that four people were reinfected, the only such instances out of more
than 25 million cases worldwide.
In August, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention changed its quarantine guidelines,
saying people with confirmed COVID-19 didn't need to be tested again for three months if they
didn't develop any symptoms.
The study isn't the first to show that antibodies can stick around for some time after
infection.
The data in the new study are in line with those in a July preprint article showing that
antibody levels were stable for at least three months in patients who had recovered from the
virus in New York City, said Elitza Theel, director of the infectious diseases serology
laboratory at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota.
S EVIDENCE MOUNTS THAT THE "GOLD STANDARD" TEST FOR DETECTING COVID-19 IS UNRELIABLE, WHY ARE HEALTH OFFICIALS AROUND THE WORLD
CALLING FOR MORE TESTS?
In the months since the COVID-19 panic began health authorities around the world have told the public to "get tested" to help
track the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, as fear and hysteria subside, the scientific community and public at large are calling into
question the efficacy of the test used to determine a patients status. This article is a brief examination of the evidence that the
PCR test is unreliable and should not be used as a determinant for the number of COVID-19 cases or as a factor in political decisions.
HOUSTON HEALTH AUTHORITY HAS CONCERNS ABOUT PCR TEST
On August 31, I attended a press conference in Houston to
ask the Mayor and Houston Health Authority about reports regarding problems with the Texas Department of State Health Services'
numbers on COVID-19 cases. TLAV has
previously
reported on these concerns with the COVID-19 case numbers in Texas. I also had a chance to ask Houston Health Authority Dr. David
Persse about concerns around the test used to detect COVID-19.
The most common test is a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) lab test. This incredibly sensitive technique was developed by Berkeley
scientist Kary Mullis, for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize in 1993. The test is designed to detect the presence of a virus by
amplifying the virus' genetic material so it can be detected by scientists. The test is viewed as the gold standard, however, it
is not without problems.
The PCR test uses chemicals to amplify the virus's genetic material and then each sample goes through a number of cycles until
a virus is recovered. This "cycle threshold" has become a key component in the debate around the efficacy of the PCR test.
Dr. Persse says that when the labs report numbers of COVID-19 cases to the City of Houston they only offer a binary option of
"yes" for positive or "no" for negative. "But, in reality, it comes in what is called cycle-thresholds. It's an inverse relationship,
so the higher the number the less virus there was in the initial sample," Persse explained. "Some labs will report out to
40 cycle-thresholds, and if they get a positive at 40 – which means there is a tiny, tiny, tiny amount of virus there – that gets
reported to us as positive and we don't know any different."
Persse noted that the key question is, at what value is someone considered still infectious?
"Because if you test me and I have a tiny amount of virus, does that mean I am contagious? that I am still infectious to someone
else? If you are shedding a little bit of virus are you just starting? or are you on the downside?," Dr. Persse asked in the lobby
of Houston City Hall. He believes the answer is for the scientific community to set a national standard for cycle-threshold.
Unfortunately, a national standard would not solve the problems expressed by Dr. Persse and others.
UK PARLIAMENT AND SCIENTISTS HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT PCR TEST
In the first weeks of September a number of important revelations regarding the PCR test have come to light. First, new research
from the University of Oxford's Center for Evidence-Based Medicine and the University of the West of England found that the PCR test
poses the potential for false positives when testing for COVID-19. Professor Carl Heneghan, one of the authors of the study,
Viral cultures for COVID-19 infectivity
assessment – a systematic review , said there was a risk that an increase in testing in the UK will lead to an increase in the
risk of "sample contamination" and thus an increase in COVID-19 cases.
The team reviewed evidence from 25 studies where virus specimens had positive PCR tests. The researchers state that the "genetic
photocopying" technique scientists use to magnify the sample of genetic material collected is so sensitive it could be picking up
fragments of dead virus from previous infections. The researchers reach a similar conclusion as Dr. David Persse, namely that,
"A binary Yes/No approach to the interpretation RT-PCR unvalidated against viral culture will result in false positives with segregation
of large numbers of people who are no longer infectious and hence not a threat to public health."
Heneghan, who is also the the editor of BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine,told the BBC that the binary approach is a problem and tests
should have a cut-off point so small amounts of virus do not lead to a positive result. This is because of the cycle threshold mentioned
by Dr. Persse. A person who is shedding an active virus and someone who has leftover infection could both receive the same positive
test result. He also stated that the test could be detecting old virus which would explain the rise in cases in the UK. Heneghan
also stated that setting a standard for the cycle threshold would eliminate the quarantining and contact tracing of people who are
healthy and help the public better understand the true nature of COVID-19.
The UK's leading health agency, Public Health England, released an update on the testing methods used to detect COVID-19 and appeared
to agree with Professor Heneghan regarding
the concerns on the cycle threshold. On September 9, PHE
released an update which concluded, "all laboratories should determine the threshold for a positive result at the limit of
detection."
This is not the first time Heneghan's work has directly impacted the UK's COVID-19 policies. In July, UK health secretary Matt
Hancock called for an "urgent review" of the daily COVID-19 death
numbers produced by Public Health England after it was revealed the stats included people who died from other causes.
The Guardian reported:
Their analysis suggests PHE cross-checks the latest notifications of deaths against a database of positive test results
– so that anyone who has ever tested positive is recorded in the COVID-19 death statistics.
A Department of Health and Social Care source said: 'You could have been tested positive in February, have no symptoms,
then hit by a bus in July and you'd be recorded as a COVID death.'"
On September 8, Heneghan tweeted out another
study on the limitations of the PCR test. The study,
"SARS-CoV-2 Testing: The Limit of Detection Matters"
, examines the limit of detection (LoD) for RNA. The researchers note similar problems with the PCR test and the cycle threshold,
concluding, "the ultimate lesson from these studies bears repetition: LoD matters and directly impacts efforts to identify, control,
and contain outbreaks during this pandemic."
Heneghan also recently told the BMJ , "one issue
in trying to interpret numbers of detected cases is that there is no set definition of a case. At the moment it seems that a polymerase
chain reaction (PCR) positive result is the only criterion required for a case to be recognised."
"In any other disease we would have a clearly defined specification that would usually involve signs, symptoms, and a test
result," Heneghan explained. "We are moving into a biotech world where the norms of clinical reasoning are going out of the
window. A PCR test does not equal covid-19; it should not, but in some definitions it does."
Heneghan says he is concerned that as soon as there is the appearance of an outbreak there is panic and over-reacting. "This
is a huge problem because politicians are operating in a non-evidence-based way when it comes to non-drug interventions," he
stated.
THE EVIDENCE FOR FALSE POSITIVES IS OVERWHELMING
A recent
report from NPR outlines the dangers of false positives with the PCR tests. Andrew Cohen, director of the Center for Research
on Aquatic Bioinvasions, was hired by the state of California to study an invasion of non-native mussels. The researchers took water
samples and used a PCR test to search for genetic material from the mussels. After the tests came back overwhelmingly positive, Cohen
grew suspicious.
"I began to realize that many of these -- if not all of these -- were false positives, especially when they started being reported
in waters that had chemistry that would not allow the mussels to reproduce and establish themselves," he told NPR. NPR notes
that, depending on the lab, there was a 2 to 8 percent false positive rate.
Once COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, Cohen said he began asking if the reports of people with absolutely no symptoms and positive
PCR test results could be false positives. "I began wondering whether these asymptomatic carriers weren't in large part or in
whole part the human counterparts of those false-positive results of quagga and zebra mussels in all those water bodies across the
West," he said.
Cohen emphasized the importance of researchers taking potential false positive PCR results seriously. "As near as we can tell,
the medical establishment and public health authorities and researchers appear to be assuming that the false-positive rate in in
the PCR based test is zero, or at least so low that we can ignore it."
Cohen is correct that the scientific authorities need to take false positives seriously, especially when a person can be sent
to isolate or quarantine for weeks due to a positive test result. Even the
U.S. FDA's own fact sheet on testing acknowledges the
dangers posed by false positives:
"The CDC 2019-nCoV Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel has been designed to minimize the likelihood of false positive test
results. However, in the event of a false positive result, risks to patients could include the following: a recommendation for
isolation of the patient, monitoring of household or other close contacts for symptoms, patient isolation that might limit contact
with family or friends and may increase contact with other potentially COVID-19 patients, limits in the ability to work, the delayed
diagnosis and treatment for the true infection causing the symptoms, unnecessary prescription of a treatment or therapy, or other
unintended adverse effects."
Professor Heneghan believes the confusion around COVID-19 has come as a result of a shift away from "evidence-based medicine."
In a recent opinion piece
published at
The Spectator , Heneghan and Tom Jefferson, a senior associate tutor and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based
Medicine, University of Oxford, wrote that patients have become a "prisoner of a system labelling him or her as 'positive' when we
are not sure what that label means." The two scientists offer this conclusion and warning:
Governments are producing a series of contradictory and confusing policies which have a brief shelf life as the next crisis
emerges. It is increasingly clear the evidence is often ignored. Keeping up to date is a full time occupation, and the advances
of the last 30 years have at best been put on hold.
The duties of a
good doctor
include working in partnership with patients to inform them about what they want or need in a way they can understand, and respecting
their rights to reach decisions with you about their treatment and care. Questions need to be asked as to how this will occur
if you don't see your doctor, particularly if all you have to do is queue in at a drive in to get your answer.
And ultimately what is a 'good test'? We think it's the test which helps your doctor narrow the uncertainty around the origins
and management of your problem.
In the past, our reports raising questions about the accuracy of COVID-19 tests have been met with accusations of 'fearmongering'
and spreading 'misinformation'.
In the past, our reports raising questions about the accuracy of COVID-19 tests have been met with accusations of 'fearmongering'
and spreading 'misinformation'.
It seemed a truth universally acknowledged that the human population had no pre-existing
immunity to SARS-CoV-2, but is that actually the case? Peter Doshi explores the emerging
research on immunological responses
Even in local areas that have experienced some of the greatest rises in excess deaths during
the covid-19 pandemic, serological surveys since the peak indicate that at most only around a
fifth of people have antibodies to SARS-CoV-2: 23% in New York, 18% in London, 11% in Madrid.
1 2 3 Among the
general population the numbers are substantially lower, with many national surveys reporting in
single digits.
With public health responses around the world predicated on the assumption that the virus
entered the human population with no pre-existing immunity before the pandemic, 4 serosurvey data are
leading many to conclude that the virus has, as Mike Ryan, WHO's head of emergencies, put it,
"a long way to burn."
Yet a stream of studies that have documented SARS-CoV-2 reactive T cells in people
without exposure to the virus are raising questions about just how new the pandemic virus
really is, with many implications.
Not so novel coronavirus?
At least six studies have reported T cell reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 in 20% to 50% of
people with no known exposure to the virus. 5 6 7 89 10
In a study of donor blood specimens obtained in the US between 2015 and 2018, 50% displayed
various forms of T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2. 5 11 A similar study that used specimens
from the Netherlands reported T cell reactivity in two of 10 people who had not been exposed to
the virus. 7
In Germany reactive T cells were detected in a third of SARS-CoV-2 seronegative healthy
donors (23 of 68). In Singapore a team analysed specimens taken from people with no contact or
personal history of SARS or covid-19; 12 of 26 specimens taken before July 2019 showed
reactivity to SARS-CoV-2, as did seven of 11 from people who were seronegative against the
virus. 8
Reactivity was also discovered in the UK and Sweden. 6 9 10
Though these studies are small and do not yet provide precise estimates of pre-existing
immunological responses to SARS-CoV-2, they are hard to dismiss, with several being published
in Cell and Nature . Alessandro Sette, an immunologist from La Jolla Institute
for Immunology in California and an author of several of the studies ( box 1 ), told The BMJ , "At
this point there are a number of studies that are seeing this reactivity in different
continents, different labs. As a scientist you know that is a hallmark of something that has a
very strong footing."
Box 1 Swine flu déjà vu
In late 2009, months after the World Health Organization declared the H1N1 "swine flu" virus
to be a global pandemic, Alessandro Sette was part of a team working to explain why the so
called "novel" virus did not seem to be causing more severe infections than seasonal flu.
12
Their answer was pre-existing immunological responses in the adult population: B cells and,
in particular, T cells, which "are known to blunt disease severity." 12 Other studies came to the same
conclusion: people with pre-existing reactive T cells had less severe H1N1 disease. 13 14 In addition, a study
carried out during the 2009 outbreak by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
reported that 33% of people over 60 years old had cross reactive antibodies to the 2009 H1N1
virus, leading the CDC to conclude that "some degree of pre-existing immunity" to the new H1N1
strains existed, especially among adults over age 60. 15
The data forced a change in views at WHO and CDC, from an assumption before 2009 that most
people "will have no immunity to the pandemic virus" 16 to one that acknowledged that "the
vulnerability of a population to a pandemic virus is related in part to the level of
pre-existing immunity to the virus." 17 But by 2020 it seems that lesson had
been forgotten.
Researchers are also confident that they have made solid inroads into ascertaining the
origins of the immune responses. "Our hypothesis, of course, was that it's so called 'common
cold' coronaviruses, because they're closely related," said Daniela Weiskopf, senior author of
a paper in Science that confirmed this hypothesis. 18 "We have really shown that this is a
true immune memory and it is derived in part from common cold viruses." Separately, researchers
in Singapore came to similar conclusions about the role of common cold coronaviruses but noted
that some of the T cell reactivity may also come from other unknown coronaviruses, even of
animal origin. 8
Taken together, this growing body of research documenting pre-existing immunological
responses to SARS-CoV-2 may force pandemic planners to revisit some of their foundational
assumptions about how to measure population susceptibility and monitor the extent of epidemic
spread. Population immunity: underestimated?
Seroprevalence surveys measuring antibodies have been the preferred method for gauging the
proportion of people in a given population who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 (and have some
degree of immunity to it), with estimates of herd immunity thresholds providing a sense of
where we are in this pandemic. Whether we overcome it through naturally derived immunity or
vaccination, the sense is that it won't be over until we reach a level of herd immunity.
The fact that only a minority of people, even in the hardest hit areas, display antibodies
against SARS-CoV-2 has led most planners to assume the pandemic is far from over. In New York
City, where just over a fifth of people surveyed had antibodies, the health department
concluded that "as this remains below herd immunity thresholds, monitoring, testing, and
contact tracing remain essential public health strategies." 19 "Whatever that number is, we're
nowhere near close to it," said WHO's Ryan in late July, referring to the herd immunity
threshold ( box 2 ).
Box 2 Calculating
the herd immunity threshold
In theory, outbreaks of contagious disease follow a certain trajectory. In a population that
lacks immunity new infections grow rapidly. At some point an inflection in this growth should
occur, and the incidence will begin to fall.
The 1970s gave rise to a theory that defined this inflection point as the herd immunity
threshold (HIT) and offered a straightforward formula for estimating its size: HIT=1−1/R
0 (where R 0 is the disease's basic reproduction number, or the average
number of secondary cases generated by an infectious individual among susceptible people). This
simple calculation has guided -- and continues to guide -- many vaccination campaigns, often
used to define target levels of vaccination. 20
The formula rests on two assumptions: that, in a given population, immunity is distributed
evenly and members mix at random. While vaccines may be deliverable in a near random fashion,
from the earliest days questions were raised about the random mixing assumption. Apart from
certain small closed populations such as "orphanages, boarding schools, or companies of
military recruits," Fox and colleagues wrote in 1971, 21 truly random mixing is the exception,
not the rule. "We could hardly assume even a small town to be a single homogeneously mixing
unit. Each individual is normally in close contact with only a small number of individuals,
perhaps of the order of 10-50."
Nearly 50 years later, Gabriela Gomes, an infectious disease modeller at the University of
Strathclyde, is reviving concerns that the theory's basic assumptions do not hold. Not only do
people not mix randomly, infections (and subsequent immunity) do not happen randomly either,
her team says. "More susceptible and more connected individuals have a higher propensity to be
infected and thus are likely to become immune earlier. Due to this selective immunization by
natural infection, heterogeneous populations require less infections to cross their herd
immunity threshold," they wrote. 22 While most experts have taken the R
0 for SARS-CoV-2 (generally estimated to be between 2 and 3) and concluded that at
least 50% of people need to be immune before herd immunity is reached, Gomes and colleagues
calculate the threshold at 10% to 20%. 22 23
Ulrich Keil, professor emeritus of epidemiology from the University of Münster in
Germany, says the notion of randomly distributed immunity is a "very naive assumption" that
ignores the large disparities in health in populations and "also ignores completely that social
conditions might be more important than the virus itself." He added, "Tuberculosis here is the
best example. We all know that the immune system is very much dependent on the living
conditions of a person, and this depends very much on education and social conditions."
Another group led by Sunetra Gupta at the University of Oxford has arrived at similar
conclusions of lower herd immunity thresholds by considering the issue of pre-existing immunity
in the population. When a population has people with pre-existing immunity, as the T cell
studies may be indicating is the case, the herd immunity threshold based on an R 0
of 2.5 can be reduced from 60% of a population getting infected right down to 10%, depending on
the quantity and distribution of pre-existing immunity among people, Gupta's group calculated.
24
But memory T cells are known for their ability to affect the clinical severity and
susceptibility to future infection, 25 and the T cell studies documenting
pre-existing reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 in 20-50% of people suggest that antibodies are not the
full story.
"Maybe we were a little naive to take measurements such as serology testing to look at how
many people were infected with the virus," the Karolinska Institute immunologist Marcus Buggert
told The BMJ . "Maybe there is more immunity out there."
The research offers a powerful reminder that very little in immunology is cut and dried.
Physiological responses may have fewer sharp distinctions than in the popular imagination:
exposure does not necessarily lead to infection, infection does not necessarily lead to
disease, and disease does not necessarily produce detectable antibodies. And within the body,
the roles of various immune system components are complex and interconnected. B cells produce
antibodies, but B cells are regulated by T cells, and while T cells and antibodies both respond
to viruses in the body, T cells do so on infected cells, whereas antibodies help prevent cells
from being infected. An unexpected twist of the curve
Buggert's home country has been at the forefront of the herd immunity debate, with Sweden's
light touch strategy against the virus resulting in much scrutiny and scepticism. 26 The epidemic in Sweden
does seem to be declining, Buggert said in August. "We have much fewer cases right now. We have
around 50 people hospitalised with covid-19 in a city of two million people." At the peak of
the epidemic there were thousands of cases. Something must have happened, said Buggert,
particularly considering that social distancing was "always poorly followed, and it's only
become worse."
Understanding this "something" is a core question for Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford University
epidemiologist who developed a way to calculate herd immunity thresholds that incorporates a
variable for pre-existing innate resistance and cross protection. 24 Her group argues that herd immunity
thresholds "may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the
virus."
"The conventional wisdom is that lockdown occurred as the epidemic curve was rising," Gupta
explained. "So once you remove lockdown that curve should continue to rise." But that is not
happening in places like New York, London, and Stockholm. The question is why.
"If it were the case that in London the disease hadn't disseminated too widely, and only 15%
have experienced the virus [as serology tests indicate] . . . under those circumstances, if you
lift lockdown, you should see an immediate and commensurate increase in cases, as we have
observed in many other settings," Gupta told The BMJ , "But that hasn't happened. That
is just a fact. The question is why."
Possible answers are many, she says. One is that social distancing is in place, and people
are keeping the spread down. Another possibility is that a lot of people are immune because of
T cell responses or something else. "Whatever it is," Gupta added, "if there is a significant
fraction of the population that is not permissive to the infection, then that all makes sense,
given how infectious SARS-CoV-2 is."
Buggert's study in Sweden seems to support this position. Investigating close family members
of patients with confirmed covid-19, he found T cell responses in those who were seronegative
or asymptomatic. 10 While around 60% of family members
produced antibodies, 90% had T cell responses. (Other studies have reported similar results.
27 ) "So many
people got infected and didn't create antibodies," concludes Buggert. Deeper
discussion
T cell studies have received scant media attention, in contrast to research on antibodies,
which seem to dominate the news (probably, says Buggert, because antibodies are easier, faster,
and cheaper to study than T cells). Two recent studies reported that naturally acquired
antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 begin to wane after just 2-3 months, fuelling speculation in the lay
press about repeat infections. 28 29 30
But T cell studies allow for a substantially different, more optimistic, interpretation. In
the Singapore study, for example, SARS-CoV-1 reactive T cells were found in SARS patients 17
years after infection. "Our findings also raise the possibility that long lasting T cells
generated after infection with related viruses may be able to protect against, or modify the
pathology caused by, infection with SARS-CoV-2," 8 the investigators wrote.
T cell studies may also help shed light on other mysteries of covid-19, such as why children
have been surprisingly spared the brunt of the pandemic, why it affects people differently, and
the high rate of asymptomatic infections in children and young adults.
The immunologists I spoke to agreed that T cells could be a key factor that explains why
places like New York, London, and Stockholm seem to have experienced a wave of infections and
no subsequent resurgence. This would be because protective levels of immunity, not measurable
through serology alone but instead the result of a combination of pre-existing and newly formed
immune responses, could now exist in the population, preventing an epidemic rise in new
infections.
But they were all quick to note that this is speculation. Formally, the clinical
implications of the pre-existing T cell reactivity remain an open question. "People say you
don't have proof, and they're right," says Buggert, adding that the historical blood donor
specimens in his study were all anonymised, precluding longitudinal follow-up.
There is the notion that perhaps T cell responses are detrimental and predispose to more
severe disease. "I don't see that as a likely possibility," Sette said, while emphasising that
we still need to acknowledge the possibility. "It's also possible that this absolutely makes no
difference. The cross reactivity is too small or weak to affect the virus. The other outcome is
that this does make a difference, that it makes you respond better."
Weiskopf added, "Right now, I think everything is a possibility; we just don't know. The
reason we're optimistic is we have seen with other viruses where [the T cell response] actually
helps you." One example is swine flu, where research has shown that people with pre-existing
reactive T cells had clinically milder disease ( box 1 ). 12 13 14
Weiskopf and Sette maintain that compelling evidence could come through a properly designed
prospective study that follows a cohort of people who were enrolled before exposure to
SARS-CoV-2, comparing the clinical course of those with and without pre-existing T cell
responses.
Understanding the protective value of pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 T cell reactivity "is
identical to the situation on vaccines," said Antonio Bertoletti, professor of infectious
disease at Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore. "Through vaccination we aim to stimulate
antibodies and T cell production, and we hope that such induction of immunity will protect but
we need a phase III clinical study to really demonstrate the effect."
German investigators came to the same conclusion, arguing that their T cell findings
represented a "decisive rationale to initiate worldwide prospective studies" mapping
pre-existing reactivity to clinical outcomes. 31 Other groups have called for the same
thing. 6
"At the start of the pandemic, a key mantra was that we needed the game changer of antibody
data to understand who had been infected and how many were protected," two immunologists from
Imperial College London wrote in a mid-July commentary in Science Immunology . "As we
have learned more about this challenging infection, it is time to admit that we really need the
T cell data too." 32
Theoretically, the placebo arm of a covid-19 vaccine trial could provide a straightforward
way to carry out such a study, by comparing the clinical outcomes of people with versus those
without pre-existing T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2. A review by The BMJ of all primary
and secondary outcome measures being studied in the two large ongoing, placebo controlled phase
III trials, however, suggests that no such analysis is being done. 33 34
Could pre-existing immunity be more protective than future vaccines? Without studying the
question, we won't know.
Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California,
Riverside. "I'm shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive," she said.
In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed
negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. "I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,"
he said.
Notable quotes:
"... PCR tests still have a role, he and other experts said. For example, their sensitivity is an asset when identifying newly infected people to enroll in clinical trials of drugs. ..."
The usual diagnostic tests may simply be too sensitive and too slow to contain the spread of the virus.
Tests authorized by the F.D.A. provide only a yes-no answer to infection, and will identify as positive patients with low
amounts of virus in their bodies. Credit... Johnny Milano for The New York Times
Some of the nation's leading public health experts are raising a new concern in the endless debate over
coronavirus testing in
the United States: The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts
of the virus.
Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who
are contagious from being found in time. But researchers say the solution is not to test less, or to skip testing people without
symptoms, as recently suggested
by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
"The decision not to test asymptomatic people is just really backward," said Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard
T.H. Chan School of Public Health, referring to the C.D.C. recommendation.
"In fact, we should be ramping up testing of all different people," he said, "but we have to do it through whole different mechanisms."
In what may be a step in this direction, the Trump administration announced on Thursday that it would purchase 150 million rapid
tests.
The most widely used diagnostic test for the new coronavirus, called a PCR test, provides a simple yes-no answer to the question
of whether a patient is infected.
But similar PCR tests for other viruses do offer some sense of how contagious an infected patient may be: The results may include
a rough estimate of the amount of virus in the patient's body.
"We've been using one type of data for everything, and that is just plus or minus -- that's all," Dr. Mina said. "We're using
that for clinical diagnostics, for public health, for policy decision-making."
But yes-no isn't good enough, he added. It's the amount of virus that should dictate the infected patient's next steps. "It's
really irresponsible, I think, to forgo the recognition that this is a quantitative issue," Dr. Mina said.
The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or
viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious.
This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus, called the cycle threshold, is never included in the results sent
to doctors and coronavirus patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are.
In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to
90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.
On Thursday, the United States recorded 45,604 new coronavirus cases, according to a database maintained by The Times. If the
rates of contagiousness in Massachusetts and New York were to apply nationwide, then perhaps only 4,500 of those people may actually
need to isolate and submit to contact tracing.
One solution would be to adjust the cycle threshold used now to decide that a patient is infected. Most tests set the limit at
40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect
the virus.
Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no
particular risk -- akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left, Dr. Mina said.
Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California,
Riverside. "I'm shocked that people would think that 40 could represent a positive," she said.
A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or even less. Those changes
would mean the amount of genetic material in a patient's sample would have to be 100-fold to 1,000-fold that of the current standard
for the test to return a positive result -- at least, one worth acting on.
Image
"It's just kind of mind-blowing to me that people are not recording the C.T. values from all these tests, that they're just
returning a positive or a negative," one virologist said. Credit... Erin Schaff/The New York Times
The Food and Drug Administration said in an emailed statement that it does not specify the cycle threshold ranges used to determine
who is positive, and that " commercial manufacturers and
laboratories set their own."
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is examining the use of cycle threshold measures "for policy decisions."
The agency said it would need to collaborate with the F.D.A. and with device manufacturers to ensure the measures "can be used properly
and with assurance that we know what they mean."
The C.D.C.'s own calculations suggest that it is extremely difficult to detect any live virus in a sample
above a threshold of 33 cycles
. Officials at some state labs said the C.D.C. had not asked them to note threshold values or to share them with contact-tracing
organizations.
For example, North Carolina's state lab uses the Thermo Fisher coronavirus test, which automatically classifies results based
on a cutoff of 37 cycles. A spokeswoman for the lab said testers did not have access to the precise numbers.
This amounts to an enormous missed opportunity to learn more about the disease, some experts said.
"It's just kind of mind-blowing to me that people are not recording the C.T. values from all these tests -- that they're just
returning a positive or a negative," said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York.
"It would be useful information to know if somebody's positive, whether they have a high viral load or a low viral load," she
added.
Officials at the Wadsworth Center, New York's state lab, have access to C.T. values from tests they have processed, and analyzed
their numbers at The Times's request. In July, the lab identified 872 positive tests, based on a threshold of 40 cycles.
With a cutoff of 35, about 43 percent of those tests would no longer qualify as positive. About 63 percent would no longer be
judged positive if the cycles were limited to 30.
In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed
negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. "I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,"
he said.
Other experts informed of these numbers were stunned.
"I'm really shocked that it could be that high -- the proportion of people with high C.T. value results," said Dr. Ashish Jha,
director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. "Boy, does it really change the way we need to be thinking about testing."
Dr. Jha said he had thought of the PCR test as a problem because it cannot scale to the volume, frequency or speed of tests needed.
"But what I am realizing is that a really substantial part of the problem is that we're not even testing the people who we need to
be testing," he said.
The number of people with positive results who aren't infectious is particularly concerning, said Scott Becker, executive director
of the Association of Public Health Laboratories. "That worries me a lot, just because it's so high," he said, adding that the organization
intended to meet with Dr. Mina to discuss the issue.
The F.D.A. noted that people may have a low viral load when they are newly infected. A test with less sensitivity would miss these
infections.
But that problem is easily solved, Dr. Mina said: "Test them again, six hours later or 15 hours later or whatever," he said. A
rapid test would find these patients quickly, even if it were less sensitive, because their viral loads would quickly rise.
PCR tests still have a role, he and other experts said. For example, their sensitivity is an asset when identifying newly infected
people to enroll in clinical trials of drugs.
But with 20 percent or more of people testing positive for the virus in some parts of the country, Dr. Mina and other researchers
are questioning the use of PCR tests as a frontline diagnostic tool.
People infected with the virus are most infectious from a day or two before symptoms appear till about five days after. But at
the current testing rates, "you're not going to be doing it frequently enough to have any chance of really capturing somebody in
that window," Dr. Mina added.
Highly sensitive PCR tests seemed like the best option for tracking the coronavirus at the start of the pandemic. But for the
outbreaks raging now, he said, what's needed are coronavirus tests that are fast, cheap and abundant enough to frequently test everyone
who needs it -- even if the tests are less sensitive.
"It might not catch every last one of the transmitting people, but it sure will catch the most transmissible people, including
the superspreaders," Dr. Mina said. "That alone would drive epidemics practically to zero."
An earlier version of this article, using information provided by a laboratory spokesman, misstated the number of positive coronavirus
tests in July processed by Wadsworth Center, New York's state lab. It was 872 tests, not 794. Based on that error, the article also
misstated the number of tests that would no longer qualify as positive with a C.T. value of 35 cycles. It is about 43 percent of
the tests, not about half of them. Similarly, the article misstated the number of tests that would no longer qualify as positive
if cycles were limited to 30. It is about 63 percent of the tests, not about 70 percent.
Apoorva Mandavilli is a reporter for The Times, focusing on science and global health. She is the 2019 winner of the Victor Cohn
Prize for Excellence in Medical Science Reporting. @ apoorva_nyc A
version of this article appears in print on Aug. 30, 2020 , Section A, Page 6 of the New York edition with the headline: You're Positive.
But Are You Contagious? Tests May Be Too Sensitive, Experts Say . Order Reprints
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PCR stands for polymerase chain
reaction , a molecular biology technique for amplifying segments of DNA, by generating
multiple copies using DNA polymerase enzymes under controlled conditions. As little as a single
copy of a DNA segment or gene can be cloned into millions of copies, allowing detection using
dyes and other visualization techniques.
Developed in 1983, the process of PCR has made it possible to perform DNA sequencing and identify
the order of nucleotides in individual genes. The method uses thermal cycling or the repeated
heating and cooling of the reaction for DNA melting and replication. As PCR continues, the
"new" DNA is used as a template for replication and a chain reaction ensues, exponentially
amplifying the DNA template.
PCR techniques are applied in many areas of biotechnology including protein engineering , cloning,
forensics (DNA fingerprinting), paternity testing, the diagnosis of hereditary and/or
infectious diseases, and for the analysis
of environmental samples.
In forensics, in particular, PCR is especially useful because it amplifies even the smallest
amount of DNA evidence. PCR can also be used to analyze DNA that is thousands of years old, and
these techniques have been used to identify everything from an 800,000-year-old mammoth to
mummies from around the world.
PCR ProcedureInitialization
This step is necessary only for DNA polymerases that require hot-start PCR. The reaction is
heated to between 94 and 96 °C and held for 1-9 minutes.
Denaturation
If the procedure does not require initialization, denaturation is the first step. The
reaction is heated to 94-98 °C for 20-30 seconds. The DNA template's hydrogen bonds are
disrupted and single-stranded DNA molecules are created.
Annealing
The reaction temperature is lower to between 50 and 65 °C and held for 20-40 seconds.
The primers anneal to the single-stranded DNA template. The temperature is extremely important
during this step. If it's too hot, the primer might not bind. If it's too cold, the primer
might bind imperfectly. A good bond is formed when the primer sequence closely matches the
template sequence.
Extension/Elongation
The temperature during this step varies depending upon the type of polymerase. The DNA
polymerase synthesizes a completely new DNA strand.
Final Elongation
This step is performed at 70-74 °C for 5-15 minutes after the final PCR
cycle.
Final Hold
This step is optional. The temperature is kept at 4-15 °C and strops the
reaction.
Three Stages of the PCR ProcedureExponential Amplification
During every cycle, product (the specific piece of DNA that is being replicated) is
doubled.
Leveling-off Stage
As the DNA polymerase loses activity and consumes reagents, the reaction
slows.
Vaccine against coronaviruses is a very tricky business as the virus tend to mutate with
time. Still it looks like Russian found some nw avenue to tackle this problem which might be more
efficient then alternatives.
Western reporters to not like to correct their own false reporting. They rather reinforce it
as much as possible. Only when overwhelmed by the facts will they silently admit that they were
wrong in the first place. Here is a prime example of how that's done.
In mid-August we exposed how 'western' media lied about the approval for phase-3 testing of
the Russian Sputnik vaccine against Covid-19. They said that Russia claimed the vaccine was
ready to go population wide. That never was the case.
Russia has not approved a vaccine against Covid-19 and it is not skipping large-scale
clinical trials. The Russia regulator gave a preliminary approval for a vaccine candidate to
start the large-scale clinical trial. [...]
Science Magazine is one of the few media who
got it right : ...
One of the false reports we pointed out was by the New York Times Moscow
correspondent Andrew E. Kramer:
Russia has become the first country in the world to approve a vaccine for the coronavirus,
President Vladimir V. Putin announced on Tuesday, though global health authorities say the
vaccine has yet to complete critical, late-stage clinical trials to determine its safety and
effectiveness.
...
By skipping large-scale clinical trials, the Russian dash for a vaccine has raised widespread
concern that it is circumventing vital steps -- and potentially endangering people -- in
order to score global propaganda points.
Russia had, as we and Science Magazine reported, never the intent to skip
large-scale clinical trials. Kramer made that up.
In new report today Kramer reinforces his previous false and disproven claims to lament
about an alleged slow distribution of the Sputnik vaccine in Russia:
More than a month after becoming the first country to approve a coronavirus vaccine, Russia
has yet to administer it to a large population outside a clinical trial, health officials and
outside experts say.
The approval, which came with much fanfare, occurred before Russia had tested the vaccine
in late-stage trials for possible side effects and for its disease-fighting ability. It was
seen as a political gesture by President Vladimir V. Putin to assert victory in the global
race for a vaccine.
It is not clear whether the slow start to the vaccination campaign is a result of limited
production capacity or second thoughts about inoculating the population with an unproven
product.
The Times author reinforces his own lie that Russia had declared its vaccine ready
for population wide application. It had never done that. The official registration of the
vaccine by the relevant authorities was only a necessary precondition to start the large scale
phase-3 testing of the vaccine. There never was a Russian intent to distribute the vaccine to a
large population without phase-3 testing.
In the bottom third of his long piece Kramer comes near to admitting that. There he
describes that the Sputnik phase-3 testing is now ongoing. That contradicts all of his previous
reporting on the issues though he himself never says that. But even now he is getting the
details wrong:
The trial in Russia began on Sept. 9, and Russian officials have said they expect early
results before the end of the year, though the Gamaleya Institute, the scientific body that
developed the vaccine, has scheduled the trial to continue until May.
That timeline is similar to the testing schedules announced by the three pharmaceutical
companies testing potential vaccines in the United States, AstraZeneca, Moderna and
Pfizer.
...
The Russian late-stage, or Phase 3, clinical trial is being carried out entirely in Moscow,
where 30,000 people will receive the vaccine and 10,000 will get a placebo.
Yevgenia Zubova, a spokeswoman for the Moscow city health department, said in an interview
that the vaccine was available only to trial participants.
Those last two paragraphs, which completely debunk Kramer's original reporting, should have
been at the very top of the piece. They are buried down in paragraph 23 and 24 of a 29
paragraphs story that starts out with an epic repeat of the previously made false claims.
Post-registration clinical trials involving more than 40,000 people in Russia will be
launched in a week starting from August, 24. A number of countries, such as UAE, Saudi
Arabia, Philippines and possibly India or Brazil will join the clinical trials of Sputnik V
locally. [...] Mass production of the vaccine is expected to start in September 2020.
That testing of Sputnik V will also happen outside of Moscow has been confirmed
by recent reports :
Russia's sovereign wealth fund will supply 100 million doses of its potential coronavirus
vaccine to Indian drug company Dr Reddy's Laboratories, the fund said on Wednesday, as Moscow
speeds up plans to distribute its shot abroad.
...
Dr Reddy's, one of India's top pharmaceutical companies, will carry out Phase III clinical
trials of Sputnik-V in India, RDIF said.
It is not Russia that is fudging the testing of its vaccine. It is the Trump administration
that is
planning to do so out of political reasons:
We have the protocols. Now we know how there will very likely be an Emergency Use Approval
(EUA) for a vaccine prior to November 3. The company and political motivations are fully
aligned.
In contrast to the U.S. the Russian testing of its Sputnik vaccine will be -as usual- of
high integrity and will strictly follow the protocols such trials are supposed to follow. In
paragraph 29, the very last one in today's NYT story, the author at last admits as
much :
[W]hen medicines are tested, Russia has an exceptionally good track record on managing
clinical trials , according to a database of U.S. Food and Drug Administration inspections of
clinical trials around the world. The F.D.A. found a lower percentage of trials with problems
in Russia than in any other European country or the United States.
If I get the chance to chose a vaccine for myself I will rather take the one which was
developed by a highly qualified state financed research institution and approved in Russia than
one developed by some profit oriented pharmaceutic conglomerate that is in cahoots with a
politicized regulator under the Trump administration.
Posted by b on September 20, 2020 at 12:12 UTC |
Permalink
If I get the chance to chose a vaccine for myself I will rather take the one which was
developed by a highly qualified state financed research institution and approved in Russia
than one developed by some profit oriented pharmaceutic conglomerate that is in cahoots
with a politicized regulator under the Trump administration.
To top it off, Gamaleya's vaccine simply has the better science behind it. It uses two
human adenoviruses, in opposition to the single chimpanzee adenovirus used by the AstraZeneca
one (the Chinese one also uses only one adenovirus, but I don't remember if it is human or
chimpanzee).
No other laboratory in the world is using Gamaleya's technology - which it already
dominates. Two American laboratories (Moderna and one more that I forgot the name) are
testing the untried and dangerous mRNA technology. It is very unlikely those two mRNA
vaccines will ever come out to the public; those two labs probably just cashed in their USD 2
billion checks they received from the USG.
This gives force to my original hypothesis: the Anglo-Saxon laboratories are exploiting
exotic technologies for their vaccines because they want something the can patent, thus
charging astronomical prices to the national governments and thus emerge from this pandemic
even richer.
--//--
Speaking of AstraZeneca (Oxford), it released its blueprints yesterday after "public
pressure":
The USG is, behind the scenes (I already posted the link here in the open thread),
extremely worried about this vaccine.
AstraZeneca will try to get what it can get, but the fact is it's game over for them. The
thing here is that the Gamaleya alternative is better and if the USA (where the vaccine
makers will really make money) wants to get political, it will simply opt for one of the many
American vaccines that will come out - ready or not, satisfactory or not - next year. As a
British vaccine, AstraZeneca-Oxford will, at best, have to do with the British market, which
is very tiny for a big pharmaceutical company.
It is better if they just cancel the trials and abandon production.
If I had money I'd fly to Russia for their vaccine. They made theirs for the people and in
Amerika we make it for profits and protect the makes from lawsuits.
To be frank, at this point, ironically, it's Big Pharma's own self-interest that might help
us to counter Trump's lunacy. There are enough anti-vaxxers around for them not to want a
screwed up vaccine and a big scandal that would only comfort the vaxxers and sow mistrust
among the population. They need people to assume vaccines are well done and mostly harmless
if they want to keep making profit with them. Trump is only interested in a victory in the
next few weeks, Pharma business is interested in making profits for the next decades.
That's quite a damning indictment of our Western system, but then 2020 is a milestone, the
threshold beyond which it won't be possible to consider the Western liberal capitalistic
system as the superior one, if not the best one possible - quite the opposite.
The Kramer reporting is highly unusual. Normally the important information should be in the
third paragraph from the end and now it's in the sixth and seventh last.
Anyway, while I agree that this vaccine should be treated as an entirely legitimate effort
I want to add:
- phase 1/2 testing did appear a too lightweight and the article on it in the Lancet has been
criticized by russian scientists (
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/09/08/leading-scientists-question-highly-improbable-russian-vaccine-results-published-in-lancet-a71384).
- one family of vaccines can be more controversial and experimental than another and the
judgement of the testers can take this in account when considering shortcuts.
- One should distinguish what the makers of the vaccine claim with the political
(exaggerated) statements from Putin about it .
- The statements on testing on the Sputnikvaccine have changed over time. In the beginning it
said 2000 people in Russia and it listed 4 more countries(UAE, KSA, Brazil,Mexico). That was
insufficient. Several of these countries have been omitted since, and others have been added.
One can say that the intent to do decent testing was always there but the confirmed planning
was not.
- rollout to large population was impossible anyway at an early stage because the production
capacity was limited.
Kramer is not wrong, he simply lies. In the Relotius media this is standard practice when
covering politically sensitive topics, combined with omissions.
Of course, many well-researched and truthful articles are published in the nyt, faz, nzz etc.
That is exactly what makes these media so refined and what they base their claim to be
quality media on. One lies and distort as little and as targeted as possible.
The Europena and Australian vassals of the USA would not be given a choice to choose the more
authetic option of the vaccine. But Israel would probably opt for the Russian version without
consequence. It's over for the West!
Nobody is saying the Gamaleya vaccine will be the second coming of the polio vaccine.
Whichever COVID-19 vaccine comes out will inevitably be imperfect (in relation to the already
tested and tried vaccines everybody takes nowadays).
Your worries are all legitimate. Indeed, Gamaleya publicly admitted phases 1 and 2 of its
trials has small samples of subjects.
However, you also have to take into account that the science is solid (two human
adenoviruses, a tested and tried technology) and that Gamaleya is the center of excellence in
adenovirus vaccine technology. That's why - and not because it is Russian - we can trust
Gamaleya's vaccine is, given the circumstances (pandemic), reliable. The fact Gamaleya
already dominated the adenovirus technology also explains why it was the first laboratory to
come out with a solution - it simply used a tested and tried method it already dominated,
while the other pharmaceuticals are basically having to relearn how to develop a vaccine
and/or are adventuring in uncharted territory because they want something they can
patent.
So yes, we can search and find defects in Gamaleya's trials - but the strongest argument
in its favor is not the trials, it's the solid science and technology behind it.
Vk and the wabbit - right on. And Thanks to you, B, for this clear and straightforwardly
informative piece (as usual).
Is it any surprise that the NYT uses the usual propaganda format of truth (when it accords
with the ruling elites perspective) and lies (when "reporting on" what is happening in those
"bad hat" countries)? And might I add that NPR and the BBC World Service do exactly the same
thing, boosting the US-UK-NATO worldview (which equals the western
corporate-captitalist-imperialist, oh so exceptional, ruling elites world position) while
denigrating Russia, China, Iran (and now Lukashenko - indeed the Beeb refuses to pronounce
his name properly, always reducing it to the feminine form, and believe me, as born and
raised Brit, that's deliberate) via lies, lies and more lies. And via those weasely words:
"likely," "Highly likely" and so on and on ....
All that this latest vaccine competition (western) will produce is more anti-vaxxers. And
this time round, sensibly so.
Tuyzefot (5): it is common for the NYT to lead with propaganda and bury the facts at the end
of the article.
I noticed it decades ago in articles covering Palestine. I learned to skip whatever was
printed on the front page and immediately jump to the final five paragraphs found deep within
the paper. I guess they print the facts at all there only as a bizarre way of covering their
asses in a feeble attempt at integrity.
The vaccine uses a unique two-vector human adenovirus technology which no-one else in
the world currently has for COVID-19.
[...]
On the surface the Sputnik V trial with 76 participants seems smaller in size compared
to 1,077 people that, for example, AstraZeneca had in its Phase 1-2 studies. However,
the design of the Sputnik V trial was much more efficient and based on better
assumptions.
[...]
The post-registration studies involving more than 40,000 people started in Russia on
August 26, before AstraZeneca has started its Phase 3 trial in the U.S. with 30,000
participants. Clinical trials in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Philippines,
India and Brazil will begin this month. The preliminary results of the Phase 3 trial will
be published in October-November 2020.
[...]
Q.: Why has the Sputnik V vaccine already become eligible for emergency use
registration?
Because of the very positive results of the Phase 1-2 trials and because the human
adenoviral vector-based delivery platform has been proven the safest vaccine delivery
platform over decades including through 75 international scientific publications and in
more than 250 clinical trials.
[...]
Some other companies are using human adenoviral vector-based platforms for their
COVID-19 vaccines. For example, Johnson & Johnson uses only Ad26 vector and China's
CanSino only Ad5 while Sputnik V uses both of these vectors. The work of Johnson &
Johnson and CanSino not only validates the Russian approach but also shows Sputnik V's
advantage as studies have demonstrated that two different vectors produce better
results than one.
[...]
The monkey adenovirus and mRNA vaccines have never been used and approved before and
their research is lagging the proven human adenoviral vector-based platform by at least 20
years. However, their developers have already secured supply contracts worth billions of
dollars from Western governments and may potentially apply for fast-track registration --
while receiving full indemnity at the same time.
At the end of the Q&A, Dmitriev counters his Western colleagues:
Question 1: Are there any long-term studies of mRNA and monkey adenovirus vector-based
technologies for carcinogenic effects and impact on fertility? (Hint: there are none)
Question 2: Could their absence be the reason why some of the leading pharmaceutical
firms making COVID-19 vaccines based on these technologies pushed the countries buying
their vaccines for full indemnification from lawsuits if something goes wrong?
Question 3: Why is Western media not reporting a lack of long term studies for mRNA and
monkey adenoviral vector-based vaccines?
The constant Russia bashing is a disconnect from the truth and the real world.
It is annoying to wade through.
Far more important, it is crippling for a nation if its leadership actually does
disconnect from reality and believe its own fantasy.
Disconnect from reality, belief in convenient fantasy, is exactly how the Democrats went
from losing with Hillary to running again with Hillary II, the same donors and advisers and
influence peddlers pushing the same right wing triangulation by the Democratic Party.
Maybe they can squeak out a win this time. It should not be close.
Far more important, there are things that need doing, things that would win like health
care for all, that they simply won't offer or run on. We are not going to get from them what
we need, we know that, and that is why they again have a squeaker election even against a
joke like Trump.
Perfect example of the free and unfettered press at work. What do you mean we're just a
propaganda rag? See, right down at the bottom, the bit you didn't bother to read down to,
right next to the denture ad, we told the truth. So there! Balanced and accurate reporting!
Trump's "national security" state has managed to kill 200000 by him the autocrat in chief to
come out and tell the truth as he admitted so to Woodward. This fucking American national
security phobia is costing American lives more than all past 70 years of national security
wars.
@JohnH 13 , it was hm, a joke. There is indeed rule of thumb that you have to look fore the
third to last paragraph. I upgraded it into something of a law, which is then violated in
this case.
@vk 10, I wouldn't call it my worries, just that I think B. posted a version which was too
simple and rosy. In the meantime I saw your post 14 which I roughly expected but hadn't read
about yet.
Andrew Kramer's reporting on the Sputnik V vaccine is deliberately written to discredit the
Russians and anything and everything they do, which includes the way they conduct scientific
and medical research (because it's govt-funded, not funded by global pharmaceutical
corporations) and the way they run their healthcare system (not privatised).
First, Kramer says the Kremlin approved the vaccine: this is to set up Moscow and Putin in
particular as rash, so that the supposed "roll-out" of the vaccine can be (secondly)
portrayed as inefficient.
Kramer knows he is lying which is why his piece is long (he knows most NYT readers are
time-poor and want the celebrity news and baseball results) and the most important
information is squeezed into the last two paragraphs of his article.
I tried linking to that Moscow Times article at your link and either I hit a dead end or
the newspaper removed the article, which does not surprise me since that newspaper is as
credible as The New York Times. It used to be given away f o r free in Moscow but I believe
it now exists only as an online paper.
@Jen, you have to remove the last two characters ').' because I omitted a space. The article
in the moscow times is ok and not too alarming. It is also not discrediting the lancet
article. Just raising concerns.
Testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee Wednesday morning, CDC Director Robert
Redfield entered further into quack doctor territory, claiming that wearing a mask protects the
wearer against the novel coronavirus, even more so than a high-efficacy vaccine.
"These facemasks are the important, powerful public health tool we have," Redfield said,
while touching both sides of his mask and unconsciously contaminating it with his hands. "I
might even go so far as to say that this facemask is more guaranteed to protect me against
COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine," he added.
This appears to be another "scientific" evolution on masks from the "public health expert"
class. At first, we were advised not to wear masks. Then, the "my mask protects you. Your mask
protects me" mantra became the widely disseminated narrative. Now, masks apparently have the
incredible power of protecting the mask wearer from the virus.
In the February hearing, Redfield told Americans not to buy medical-grade
masks , saying there's "no role for these masks in the community."
There remains zero evidence that cloth masks or the earloop masks displayed by Redfield
helps to slow the spread of COVID-19 or protect the wearer from infection. No country in the
world has proven a link in slowing or stopping the spread due to mask wearing mandates, which
are in effect in countless nations.
Given the lack of demonstrated evidence supporting it, mask-wearing has become a cult-like religious
movement in the United States , one that relies on complete subservience to total
mysticism. Members of the mask movement frequently target Americans who engage in
non-compliance, likening these individuals to evil, plague-carrying menaces. Redfield's
testimony will only add fuel to the mask mania that is sowing discord in America.
In his testimony, Redfield added that a COVID vaccine probably won't be available to the
general public until
at least the second or third quarter of 2021.
"If you're asking me when is it going to be generally available to the American public, so
we can begin to take advantage of vaccine to get back to our regular life, I think we're
probably looking at third, late second quarter, third quarter 2021," he testified, adding
that first responders may have access to the vaccine before the end of the year.
Like many institutional bureaucracies in the federal government, the CDC has become plagued
with corruption and "woke" politics. A whistleblower recently revealed that the CDC was forcing
its staff to undergo "critical race theory" training.
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Under Redfield's leadership, the CDC dropped the ball on preparing Americans for the U.S.
coronavirus outbreak, as shown through
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From comments: "Article is poorly written by someone who does not know medical science. There
are no viral "cells" so the headline is a put off right away. The comment about "sensitivity" is
misplaced as PCR tests are too sensitive: ergo false positives. I believe "specificity" is the
word the author was searching for. If a test lumps true positives with false positives, then it
lacks specificity."
That's because new research from the University of Oxford's Center for Evidence-Based
Medicine and the University of the West of England has found that the swab-based technique used
for most COVID-19 testing is at risk of returning "false positives" since copies of the virus's
RNA detected by the tests might simply be dead, inactive material from a weeks-old infection.
Although patients infected with COVID-19 are typically only infectious for a week or less,
tests can be triggered by virus genetic material left over from a weeks-old infection.
The team's research involved analyzing 25 studies on the widely used polymerase chain
reaction test. PCR tests use material collected with a swab - the most common type of test
around the world, and especially in the US - then utilize a "genetic photocopying" technique
that allows scientists to magnify the small sample of genetic material collected, which they
can then analyze for signs of viral RNA.
What the researchers here have effectively found is that these PCR tests just aren't
sensitive enough to distinguish if the viral material is active and infectious, or dead and
inert.
For those who desire a more comprehensive understanding of how these tests work, the chart
below can be helpful.
Professor Carl Heneghan, one of the authors of the study, said there was a risk that a surge
in testing across the UK was increasing the risk of this sample contamination occurring and it
may explain why the number of Covid-19 cases is rising but the number of deaths is static.
"Evidence is mounting that a good proportion of 'new' mild cases and people re-testing
positives after quarantine or discharge from hospital are not infectious, but are simply
clearing harmless virus particles which their immune system has efficiently dealt with," he
told the Spectator.
Professor Heneghan added that international scrutiny might be required to avoid "the dangers
of isolating non-infectious people or whole communities." ZKnight 14 minutes ago
Fake science. How about purify the virus first and establish a gold standard for testing
first. No, of course not because the CDC has a patent for Covid-19 and nobody is allowed to try
find it to see if it exists. play_arrow LogicFusion 27 minutes ago
Everybody is a Covid-19 / Coronavirus expert now!
Read about the failed coin dealer and convicted felon's performance. It's hilarious!
Covid -19 has been so politicized that I don't believe a word of any publication for or
against testing, existence of the Virus, or anything that provokes testing or issues opinions
about locking down communities. Just like the riots, Covid news is just plain boring.
play_arrow ominous 3 hours ago
"Give me control of a nation's money, and I care not who makes the laws" - Mayer Amschel
Rothschild. play_arrow play_arrow tangent 4 hours ago remove link
People who recommend a vaccine for an entirely cured virus should lose their license to
practice medicine. 99.9% cure rate applying to people who take it before being hospitalized is
one of the biggest success stories in the history of medicine for HCQ. Not only that, but there
are multiple other likely cures that simply have not been studied well. You'd think people
would appreciate the fact that the common cold has been cured, but instead they just whine that
big pharma isn't getting those bucko bucks.
I honestly expected a ticker tape parade like in the movies when that first cure study came
out. But instead they took a massive **** on the study and on the doctor... ****ty world we
live in. ay_arrow Pair Of Dimes Shift 2 hours ago
An exec (55+) at my company is gung ho about the vaccine.
Unfortunately, I just had to give him a "wait and see" response although I know vaccines for
coronaviruses are impossible. play_arrow 2 play_arrow ThanksIwillHaveAnother 4 hours ago
(Edited)
Viruses are not full cells. They are DNA/RNA wrapped with a protein the clings to a cell
then the cell imports the DNA/RNA to start making its proteins. So what is inactive? If that
person sneezes on another person depending on immune system status that other person could get
a bad infection. y_arrow 4 CrabbyR 3 hours ago
viruses utilizes CELL structures and host DNA to replicate dna or rna according to the
viruses genetic code, the protein jacket is the final product to
disguise the virus from detection and to bind on another cell after the compromised cell
RUPTURES, there's more to it but if it cannot copy itself effectively it can become nonviable
and unable to infect another cell. It replicates DNA inside a host cell, It is not a complete
organism and cannot replicate unless it can inject its DNA into a host cell. Antibodies cling
to viruses and destroy this ability to bind to a target cell. A non viable virus has a damaged
coat or DNA RNA that has to many Dimers (damage or code breaks) Bacteria is more in line with
what you think a virus is y_arrow onewayticket2 4 hours ago (Edited) remove link
they lost me when they changed the definition of "death" to include "presumed, untested"
cases (while bI@#$% ing at me that we needed to "follow the science")....and even got busted
for the laughable motorcycle accident being classified as a covid death and the Labs that were
sending in 100% positive results. (until they were caught) play_arrow OutaTime43 4 hours ago
remove link
The test detects RNA. Not necessarily viable virus. Also, it will detect RNA presence in an
individual who may already have antibodies and may be immune. We are bombarded daily by viruses
of which we already have immunity. play_arrow sun tzu 10 hours ago
Shocking news that the South Koreans already discovered and published back in May. Western
big pharma driven medicine is garbage 😂😂😂
Interesting play_arrow play_arrow Jack Mehoff 1 more time 9 hours ago
Business as usual play_arrow play_arrow Argon1 7 hours ago
Preparation for agenda 2021 in 2017. play_arrow 1 play_arrow CrabbyR 4 hours ago
WOW.......ties a few strands from other sources together into a real ugly picture play_arrow
play_arrow Welsh Bard 10 hours ago
The professor who won the Nobel prize for work in this field, said that the way this test is
being operated with over forty cycles, means that any results are entirely meaningless.
In Britain, having spent over £15 billion setting up PCR testing systems and a shaky
test and trace apparatus on top of that, it appears that 90% of positive results now appear to
be false. This is compounded by the fact that when a hot spot develops, more testing is done to
show a rapid increase in more false positive results, meaning further new lockdowns and even
more testing to prove yet more false positive results ad infinitum.
Now whether this is by design or ineptitude, people must decide for themselves but the
outcome is utter chaos.
For those countries who have not followed the Swedish model especially countries like
Australia and New Zealand who have set up complete isolation, now face a future perpetually cut
off from the rest of the world.
Okay, new techniques will and are coming along to treat the disease like HCQ when used
correctly maybe as a prophylactic and a vaccine that will need to be constantly upgraded like
the Flu vaccine, means that the whole world has painted itself into a corner unless drastic
revision is now made to the whole sorry mess.
In the meantime, we will now be stuck with digital currency and the introduction of ID
Health Cards that will limit people in how they travel where they work and access to a whole
heap of things like government services.
Welcome to the new world order! play_arrow 1 KuriousKat 11 hours ago (Edited) remove
link
Don't tell the Shameless Aussie gov that after arresting hundreds for simply voicing doubt
on need to lockdown entire city...Next time it will be thousands and not a damn thing they can
do to stop it..These people are trickling us the truth how worthless the tests are when pretty
much everyone knows. play_arrow espirit 12 hours ago remove link
Lessee.
WHO
Imperial College
John Hopkins
CDC
Line all those peeps up against the wall, and the first one to rat gets to live.
I'll provide my own ammo... ay_arrow Sick Monkey 6 hours ago
Not everyone working in these agencies are dishonest but like you and I we have to work and
eat.
Most of them are trapped in this mess with bills to pay threatened by NDA.
play_arrow 1 Urban Roman 12 hours ago
Not particularly new news. Been talked about since April at least -- it's an RNA virus, it
has its own polymerase, and it leaves lots of RNA fragments in its wake.
The Corona family of viruses make 5 or 6 strands with partial copies of their RNA molecule.
negative copies are made first, and then copied again into positive copies. Finally the one big
RNA is made with the entire genome on it.
So about a dozen RNA molecules are made for each finished virus particle that is produced.
And finally, a variety of different primers are used for the PCR tests, some are matched to the
small partial RNA copies and others are matched to various features on the large whole-virus
RNA. They can give different results for the same sample.
So, someone who registers on a PCR test has probably been exposed to the virus, but the test
gives no clue as to whether it is an active infection, or the person is contagious, or they are
just coming down with it, or they got over it six months ago. play_arrow 4 play_arrow 1
10 play_arrow gordo 12 hours ago remove link
Sweden, no masks, no lock downs, ALL SCHOOLS OPEN, herd immunity, no second wave.
Still think your masks and lock downs are working muppets?
1 play_arrow The 3rd Dimentia 13 hours ago
https://youtu.be/sjYvitCeMPc
SARS-CoV2 and the Rise of Medical Technocracy. Lee Merritt, M.D. play_arrow 3 play_arrow
hugin-o-munin 13 hours ago
I'm glad to see that many are starting to counter the official narrative.
We've been asleep for too long and allowed these agendas to fester to the point we're at now
where a college dropout software salesman and a former 3rd world communist terrorist (neither
of whom have any medical degree) are dictating to the world how everyone needs to get a DNA
altering vaccine and a medical ID. It's completely nuts and bonkers yet more or less the entire
planet's governments follow in 'lockstep' with ever more draconian laws and regulations
incarcerating people in their own homes, making them wear masks causing oxygen deprivation and
shutting down the entire world economy.
lay_arrow Warthog777 , 13 hours ago
Article is poorly written by someone who does not know medical science. There are no viral
"cells" so the headline is a put off right away. The comment about "sensitivity" is misplaced
as PCR tests are too sensitive: ergo false positives. I believe "specificity" is the word the
author was searching for. If a test lumps true positives with false positives, then it lacks
specificity.
Anyone who would use the term "virus cells", has no clue what they're talking about and
should be completely disregarded. Viruses are not cells. PCR tests are searching for
something your body produces in response to a virus as well. They are not produced
specifically for a singular virus either. The entire concept of PCR testing is garbage. This
**** was a scam from the get-go.
hugin-o-munin , 13 hours ago
Yes it is evident now that this entire pandemic is false and political. The goal seems to
be to vaccinate entire populations and the question people need to ask is - why? what for?
Aside from the obvious economic motives there are some more sinister plans that most people
will have a hard time accepting but these need to be looked at. Several years ago there were
a group of doctors and researchers that died of suspicious suicides who were collaborating
and studying vaccines and the link to autism.
The effort was led by Dr.Jeffrey Bradstreet who was researching the natural substance
GcMAF and how this could boost the immune system. What he discovered was that many vaccines
had a compound/substance called Nagalase in them that is unnatural and has a detrimental
effect on the immune system and function of GcMAF (which is produced by our own bodies) and
has no business at all being in vaccines. Just before he was able to blow the whistle on this
he also died of a suspicious 'suicide' and today most of the clinics and research groups
working on GcMAF have been destroyed and ruined. Draw your own conclusions.
snblitz , 14 hours ago
Dr. Kary Mullis invented the PCR test. He said it was ineffective for this purpose.
Though he was addressing its use in a prior virus hoax unleashed upon the world.
I bet you didn't know this scam has been used before.
That is why I was able to call out the scam right from the start. The second I saw them
using the PCR again, I knew it was from the same playbook.
snblitz , 14 hours ago
So many lies.
Viruses are not alive. They have no metabolic functions. They cannot move.
Don't believe me? Get a degree is virology or microbiology or just a read a book on the
subject. Or capture a wuhan-virus yourself and watch it under a microscope. It won't move. It
won't consume anything. It will just sit there inert.
The problem is that you are being lied to at a scale you cannot imagine.
I know, off to the fema re-education camp for me for spreading false information about the
wuhan-virus.
Though I am not the one spreading fear and hysteria.
aldousd , 13 hours ago
There article is confused, but the work of the doctor is not. Viruses use your cells to
reproduce. When your immune system targets the virus it actually kills your own cell which
has become host to the virus. The virus particles and markers, and the DNA of the virus can
be detected in these dead cells, but dead cells cannot serve as a factory for more viruses.
So it's effectively a dead virus infected cell. Not a dead virus cell.
So while the transcription of the idea here was done by an idiot, it's not an idiotic
idea. The tests cannot tell if the virus came in a living cell that is actively producing
more viruses or a dead host cell that has been assassinated by your immune system. That's
what they're talking about here.
mstyle , 11 hours ago
what about the chromosome 8 stuff that has been mentioned lately?
(since you appear to be rather intelligent)
hugin-o-munin , 11 hours ago
Thanks. Well the chromosome 8 discovery in the PCR test specifications/details is strange
and worrying because it makes you wonder why it's part of this at all. Some believe it's to
get more false positive results while others believe it is what the mRNA vaccines are
intended to target and if that's right then it's really sinister. What exactly is the plan?
To make all of us get Downs Syndrome? I don't know but judging by all their other lies and
schemes it wouldn't surprise me.
IRC162 , 14 hours ago
Fuggin progressives and their pandemic political prop. But really this reaction is the
same as their reaction to 'racial injustice'. They focus on feelings before the facts are
known in order to achieve their end, and then do their best to bury/ignore the facts when
they are gathered later.
94% COVID deaths with multiple comorbidities.
10 unarmed blacks killed by police in 2019 (6 were in self-defense).
adr , 15 hours ago
Why didn't you mention that nearly all labs are running 35-40 cycles which guarantees a
positive test, simply from noise.
The inventor of the test said if you don't find anything after 15 cycles, it probably
isn't there. After 20 cycles the noise starts to be greater than any real information. By 30,
the test is mostly noise. More than 35, the test is completely worthless.
Of course I've been saying this for five months, but most people didn't listen. After the
NYT article came out, people I know started saying, "How did you know?"
I said, "Because I have critical thinking skills. Why didn't you believe me? Name a time
I've steered you wrong."
Antiduck , 14 hours ago
333 labs in florida had 100% positivity. (stupid word.)
ZenStick , 12 hours ago
Exactly correct.
Nobody will touch this line of reasoning in public or on media.
Bastages.
Identify as Ferengi , 15 hours ago
See above, Born2Bwired.
The PCR test is not useful for what they are using it for apparently. This has been
known since the beginning. Here is quote regarding AIDS:
"Kary Mullis, who won the Nobel Prize in Science for inventing the PCR, is thoroughly
convinced that HIV is not the cause of "AIDS". With regard to the viral load tests, which
attempt to use PCR for counting viruses, Mullis has stated: "Quantitative PCR is an
oxymoron." PCR is intended to identify substances qualitatively, but by its very nature is
unsuited for estimating numbers. Although there is a common misimpression that the viral
load tests actually count the number of viruses in the blood, these tests cannot detect
free, infectious viruses at all; they can only detect proteins that are believed, in some
cases wrongly, to be unique to HIV. The tests can detect genetic sequences of viruses, but
not viruses themselves.
What PCR does is to select a genetic sequence and then amplify it enormously. It can
accomplish the equivalent of finding a needle in a haystack; it can amplify that needle
into a haystack. Like an electronically amplified antenna, PCR greatly amplifies the
signal, but it also greatly amplifies the noise. Since the amplification is exponential,
the slightest error in measurement, the slightest contamination, can result in errors of
many orders of magnitude."
It is important to note that detecting viral material by PCR does not indicate that the
virus is fully intact and infectious, i.e. able to cause infection in other people. The
isolation of infectious virus from positive individuals requires virus culture methods. These
methods can only be conducted in laboratories with specialist containment facilities and are
time consuming and complex.
PCR is 90% false positive as far as detection of live infectious virus. IT IS A FRAUD
I Write Code , 15 hours ago
The "PCR" tests are only testing for fragments anyhow, if they did a full sequence it
would be much more reliable - but much more slow and expensive, too.
I saw this on RFB an hour ago . He showed how a link on this page had been scrubbed
already .
adr , 15 hours ago
Why didn't you mention that nearly all labs are running 35-40 cycles which guarantees a
positive test, simply from noise.
The inventor of the test said if you don't find anything after 15 cycles, it probably
isn't there. After 20 cycles the noise starts to be greater than any real information. By 30,
the test is mostly noise. More than 35, the test is completely worthless.
Of course I've been saying this for five months, but most people didn't listen. After the
NYT article came out, people I know started saying, "How did you know?"
I said, "Because I have critical thinking skills. Why didn't you believe me? Name a time
I've steered you wrong."
Spiritual Anunnaki , 15 hours ago
Wrote a memoir of a incubation patient. The coronavirus Hospital staff are pressured to
hook you up to the tubes...
adr , 15 hours ago
If you walked into a hospital coughing, they gave you paralytics and hooked you up to a
vent. Something that is only supposed to be done if you are in imminent danger of death.
The problem with paralytics, is that your body believes it is dead, and your blood starts
to coagulate. It wasn't Covid that caused the problems, it was the drugs the doctors were
forcing down patient's throats.
They should be held criminally libel, but thanks to the emergency declaration, they are
immune to prosecution.
flim_flam_man , 11 hours ago
They wanted them intubated for two reasons: nurses didn't want to deal with patients on
bipaps and other respiratory support in a conscious patient as that increases THEIR risk of
infection. AND the hospitals collected $38K/intubated patient from the fed...significantly
more than a garden variety mildly sick patient.
This went on mainly in hospitals in crappy areas that largely serve the "socioeconomically
challenged" segment of the population, which then solves the mystery as to why blacks and
hispanics have been disproportionately affected by covid.
esident Trump recently introduced
four executive orders aimed at reducing drug prices for all Americans. Affordability
in health care is consistently a leading issue on the minds of the people, and the price of
prescription drugs is a key component of that. Every president, regardless of party, wants to
make medication more affordable. But more times than not, they fail to make much of a
difference. President Trump's orders, however, should.
Insulin, a drug that has been in existence for nearly a century, continues to be cost
prohibitive for many diabetics. We've all seen story after story of people having to choose
between groceries and lifesaving drugs -- even at a time when the Affordable Care Act is the
law of the land. Over the last 10 years, the price of
Humalog, a commonly prescribed insulin, has increased from $75 to $250, with no changes to
formula, packaging, or designs.
Over the same time frame, the list prices established by pharmaceutical companies have
skyrocketed, although their profits have remained relatively flat . The middlemen and insurers, however, have
seen record growth and
rampant consolidation due to the large rebates they command from the manufacturers that benefit
from being on the insurers' drug lists. This is a broken system; it sounds like a business
model straight out of The Godfather movies.
The next EO, the International Pricing Index (also known as the "most favored nation"
order), seeks to compel pharmaceutical manufacturers to charge the U.S. no more than the lowest
price available among economically advanced countries for Medicare Part B drugs. Clearly, this
is rate-setting and not a sustainable solution, but the order is the only one that comes with a
trigger mechanism. President Trump has given Big Pharma until noon August 24 to negotiate a
substantive plan to lower the cost of drugs for the American people.
If the manufacturers are unsuccessful in producing a viable plan, it will pull the trigger
that initiates most favored nation status. This tactic has given the president necessary
leverage to push for a deal that makes sense.
The importation order achieves the same end, but it will ultimately be up to the states to
implement, should they wish to import drugs from nations with which they negotiate. Governor
Ron DeSantis of Florida has been a long-time proponent of this policy and has been leading the
charge for his state.
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Another order that focuses on bringing down the cost of insulin and epinephrine was issued
within the network of clinics known as Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHC). Patients that
are seen in these clinics will now be able to take advantage of newly extended purchasing
discounts that will allow them to get these life-saving drugs for pennies on the dollar.
The fourth and perhaps most substantive order makes rebates
for Medicare patients available at the pharmacy. Insurers and other middlemen have often kept
these rebates and counted them as revenue rather than passing them on to patients. This order
makes Medicare patients the beneficiaries of these rebates, which will result in much greater
affordability for our seniors who are often on fixed incomes.
Are the orders perfect? Perhaps not. But the absence of leadership from Congress to get this
done has resulted in needed action from President Trump. The physicians and patients who
attended the signing applauded this effort and encouraged the administration to press on to
make health care even more affordable. We are all patients, and efforts like this are
opportunities for us to unite in our effort to fix our broken health care system.
David Balat is the policy director of the Right on Healthcare initiative at the Texas
Public Policy Foundation.
I work for a Pharma company. I haven't heard anyone concerned about these EOs. If they
were actually going to impact pricing, I would have heard the concern as I deal directly with
upper level management.
Also, insulin and epinephrine are made by only a handful of companies. There are a ton
more drugs around than these generic drugs. It's the on patent drugs which drive the extreme
cost of healthcare. Focusing on genetics isn't remotely where the big dollars are for the
industry. Yea, there is gouging going in for insulin, it's certainly not the biggest thing
going on right now in pricing.
This is a freebie so you should be able to get into this article and pickup on additional
detail. Those who were treated early on had a better result from remdesivir than those who were
treated later after contracting Covid. This was already know,.
Results: Among 596 patients who were randomized, 584 began the study and received remdesivir
or continued standard care (median age, 57 [interquartile range, 46-66] years; 227 [39%] women;
56% had cardiovascular disease, 42% hypertension, and 40% diabetes), and 533 (91%) completed
the trial. Median length of treatment was 5 days for patients in the 5-day remdesivir group and
6 days for patients in the 10-day remdesivir group.
On day 11, patients in the 5-day remdesivir group had statistically significantly higher
odds of a better clinical status distribution than those receiving standard care (odds
ratio, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.09-2.48; P = .02).
The clinical status distribution on day 11 between the 10-day remdesivir and standard care
groups was not significantly different ( P = .18 by Wilcoxon rank sum
test). By day 28, 9 patients had died: 2 (1%) in the 5-day remdesivir group, 3 (2%) in the
10-day remdesivir group, and 4 (2%) in the standard care group. Nausea (10% vs 3%), hypokalemia
(6% vs 2%), and headache (5% vs 3%) were more frequent among remdesivir-treated patients
compared with standard care.
Some Limitations: This study has several limitations. First, the original protocol was
written when COVID-19 cases were largely confined to Asia and the clinical understanding of
disease was limited to case series. This led to a change in the primary end point on the first
day of study enrollment as it became clear that hospital discharge rates varied greatly across
regions and the ordinal scale had become standard for interventional COVID-19 studies. Second,
the study used an open-label design, which potentially led to biases in patient care and
reporting of data. Third, because of the urgent circumstances in which the study was conducted,
virologic outcomes such as effect of remdesivir on SARS-CoV-2 viral load were not assessed.
Fourth, other laboratory parameters that may have aided in identifying additional predictors of
outcomes were not routinely collected. Fifth, the ordinal scale used to evaluate outcomes was
not ideal for detecting differences in patients with moderate COVID-19, especially for a
clinical situation in which discharge decisions may be driven by factors other than clinical
improvement.
Conclusions: Among patients with moderate COVID-19, those randomized to a
10-day course of remdesivir did not have a statistically significant difference in clinical
status compared with standard care at 11 days after initiation of treatment. Patients
randomized to a 5-day course of remdesivir had a statistically significant difference in
clinical status compared with standard care, but the difference was of uncertain clinical
importance.
Anthropologist Wade Davis on how COVID-19 signals the end of the American era
Food for thought ... 😉. Well written ...
Odious as he may be, Trump is less the cause of America's decline than a product of its
descent. As they stare into the mirror and perceive only the myth of their exceptionalism,
Americans remain almost bizarrely incapable of seeing what has actually become of their
country.
5.0 out of 5 stars
Very
informative
Reviewed in the United States on April 18, 2020
Verified Purchase
Update: I'm just about done reading this book. Here's a quotation:
P 278. "When scientific research interferes with politics, economics, or culture, science is most often the loser. Thus,
governments and businesses control health care for personal gains or concepts and disregard or avoid factual knowledge
and events." Sound familiar? This was written ten years ago. I understand that the last thing many people want is more
virus talk, but this book is very informative and may effect many of your actions. It also provides a long view on
identifying and treating viruses. For example, I didn't know that it took over forty years for an effective polio
vaccine. Same thing for measles.
Science now is a highly politicized science and that's a huge problem. Ask USSR scientists
about possible consequences. Is Kapitsa noted long ago in his obitiary on Ernest Rutherford death
as soon as science become rich it lost its freedom. "
"The year that Rutherford died (1938) there
disappeared forever the happy days of free scientific work which gave us such delight in our
youth. Science has lost her freedom. Science has become a productive force. She has become rich
but she has become enslaved and part of her is veiled in secrecy. I do not know whether
Rutherford
would continue to joke and laugh as he used to.
Lysenkoism in Stalins's USSR was the first robin of this process. Now it became commonplace.
That's why we see so many pseudo-scientists -- politicians who pretend to be scientists like
Fauci. and so much corruption like among Professors of economics (all those neoclassical economic
scoundrels)
"...a permanent modern scenario: apocalypse looms and it doesn't occur."
- Susan Sontag, AIDs and its Metaphors
"I should not misuse this opportunity to give you a lecture about, say, logic. I call
this a misuse, for to explain a scientific matter to you it would need a course of lectures
and not an hour's paper. Another alternative would have been to give you what's called a
popular scientific lecture, that is a lecture intended to make you believe that you
understand a thing which actually you don't understand, and to gratify what I believe to be
one of the lowest desires of modern people, namely the superficial curiosity about the
latest discoveries of science. I rejected these alternatives."
- Ludwig Wittgenstein, A Lecture on Ethics
If you're reading this, then you've probably been called a conspiracy theorist. Also
you've been derided and shamed for questioning the "science" of the Covid debacle.
The idea of science is now a badly corrupted idea. In a nation, today, (the USA) which in
educational terms ranks 25th globally in science skills and reading, and well below that in
math; all one hears is a clarion call to science. In reading skills the US placed below
Malta, Portugal, and right about the same as Kazakhstan.
But in a nation that no longer reads, and *can* no longer read, it is not surprising that
knowledge is absorbed via the new hieroglyphics of gifs (interestingly the creator of gifs
wanted it pronounced with a soft g the more to sound like a peanut butter brand) and
memes.
So-called 'response memes' are the new version of conversation, and most register and
communicate (sic) confusion. As beer ad marketers know, the state of your brain after
consuming a six pack is pretty much the standard target ideal for advertising. And it relays
a message that six pack confusion is actually a good and perhaps even sexy state in which to
find oneself.
Education is for those with money, those who can afford the proper foundational skills to
get into Harvard, MIT, Cal Tech and the Stanford. For everyone else science is Star Trek.
But I digress. The point is that most Americans imagine that they revere science, and they
ridicule anyone they think of as unscientific. But they think of it in cult terms, really.
Its a religion of sorts. The only people who don't are those 'real' religious zealots,
Dominionist and Charismatic Christians (like Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, Rick Perry, Betsy DeVos
et al) who hold positions of enormous power in the US government under the least scientific
president in history.
The Christian right doesn't like any science, ANY science. But for most of that target
demographic (the educated mostly white 30%), the cry is to "trust the science" even the great
Greta says to "trust the science".
The problem is, science is not neutral, its as politicized as media and news and the
pronouncements of celebrities.
In May 2020, The Lancet published an article revisiting the 1957 and 1968 Influenza
pandemics.
The 1957 outbreak was not caused by a coronavirus -- the first human coronavirus would
not be discovered until 1965 -- but by an influenza virus. However, in 1957, no one could
be sure that the virus that had been isolated in Hong Kong was a new pandemic strain or
simply a descendant of the previous 1918–19 pandemic influenza virus.
The result was that as the UK's weekly death count mounted, peaking at about 600 in the
week ending Oct 17, 1957, there were few hysterical tabloid newspaper headlines and no
calls for social distancing. Instead, the news cycle was dominated by the Soviet Union's
launch of Sputnik and the aftermath of the fire at the Windscale nuclear reactor in the
UK.
By the time this influenza pandemic -- known colloquially at the time as "Asian flu" --
had concluded the following April, an estimated 20 000 people in the UK and
80 000 citizens in the USA were dead. Worldwide, the pandemic, sparked by a new H2N2
influenza subtype, would result in more than 1 million deaths.
To date, Covid 19 has not reached the million death marker in the US, and yet we are
seeing the most draconian lockdowns in modern history, the total suspension of democratic
process and a level of hysteria (especially in the U.S. and UK) unprecedented. I wrote about
some aspects of this on my blog here , mostly touching on the
cultural effects
Allow me to quote The Lancet again.
The subsequent 1968 influenza pandemic -- or "Hong Kong flu" or "Mao flu" as some
western tabloids dubbed it -- would have an even more dramatic impact, killing more than
30 000 individuals in the UK and 100 000 people in the USA, with half the
deaths among individuals younger than 65 years -- the reverse of COVID-19 deaths in the
current pandemic.
Yet, while at the height of the outbreak in December, 1968, The New York Times described
the pandemic as "one of the worst in the nation's history", there were few school closures
and businesses, for the most, continued to operate as normal.
I remember the 68 Hong Kong flu. I was in my last year of high school. The summer after
was Woodstock, the 'summer of love'. Not a lot of social distancing going on. But we are past
numbers and statistics having any real meaning. The Covid narrative is now in the realm of
allegory.
The media perspective is utterly predictable. Liberal outlets that have the inside track
to government are seen to be reinforcing the mainstream story (VOX, Slate, Huff Post, The
Guardian and Washington Post). In a recent VOX article the message was only a sociopath would
NOT wear a mask and that the 'science' was unanimous.
Of course its no such thing. But the message of sites like VOX, or Daily Beast, or Wa Po
or the truly reprehensible Guardian, are always going to be to hammer away 'on message'. The
same is true for what passes for moderate news organs like the NY Times, ABC News, The Hill,
and BBC. There has been virtually no dissenting opinions expressed in these rags.
All these news outlets are given clear messages by the spin doctors in government, by the
White House, and by contacts within the State Department and Pentagon. And by the advertising
firms employed by the state (such as Ruder Finn).
"Ad agencies are not in the business of doing science."
- Dr. Arnold S. Relman (Madison Ave. Has Growing Role In the Business of Drug
Research, NY Times 2002)
The WHO, the CDC, and most every other NGO or government agency of any size hires
advertising firms. The WHO, which is tied to the United Nations, is a reasonably sinister
organization, actually.
Just picking up a random publication from the WHO, on what they call 'the tobacco
epidemic' and you find on page 33 the following chapter heading "Objective: Effective
surveillance, monitoring and evaluation systems in place to monitor tobacco use."
Reading further and all this is really saying is that the populace of any country is best
put under surveillance. It's for their own good, you see.
Institutions of medicine, global and national possess
no more integrity than your average NGO (Amnesty International, Médecins Sans
Frontières, Oxfam et al). And that means not very much.
To understand the nature of institutional corruption one must understand Imperialism. The
institutions of Imperialist nations are going to further Imperialist ideology. (see Antonio
Gramsci, ideological hegemony). The US is not
in the business of helping Americans .
Modern monopoly forms better reflect that scientific knowledge, and its advanced
application to production, are concentrated, ultimately, not in physical objects but in
human beings and human interaction with those objects. It is monopoly of the labour power
of the most highly educated workers, by both imperialist states and Multi National
Corporations, that forms the ultimate and most stable base of imperialist reproduction.
– Sam King (Lenin's theory of imperialism: a defence of its relevance in the
21st century, MLR)
The idea of super-exploitation needs to be conceptually generalised at the necessary
level of abstraction and incorporated in the theory of imperialism. Super-exploitation is a
specific condition within the capitalist mode of production [ ] the hidden common essence
defining imperialism.
he working class of the oppressed nations/Third World/Global South is systematically
paid below the value of labour power of the working class of the oppressor nations/First
World/Global North. This is not because the Southern working class produces less value, but
because it is more oppressed and more exploited.
– Andy Higginbottom (Structure and Essence in Capital 1, quoted by John
Smith Imperialism in the Twenty-First Century)
The US jobless rate just hit 2.1 million. Officially. Making the total something over
forty million. Its much higher in reality. Nobody has work. There is no work and we are at
the start of a period of massive evictions, foreclosures, and delinquencies - and the
homeless population will soon reach Biblical proportions (in some cities, such as Los
Angeles, its already Biblical). Will be simply of a magnitude never before seen.
Hence the authoritarian policing of lockdowns in, for example, New Zealand, suggests
something like a practice run. The ruling class in western nations knows full well this is
coming. And one wonders if it's not, in fact, a part of the plan (oh here is where someone
says conspiracy theory probably Louis Proyect).
Yes it's a fucking conspiracy theory. It is a theory based on evidence, however.
Why are the US and UK and a host of other countries deliberately ensuring a massive
depression? Because they care about your health? They are worried we all might catch the flu?
Has the US ever demonstrated a concern with your health and well being before?
Remember how many discretionary tax dollars go to health care and how much to defense.
Conspiracies do occur. The denial of that fact seems to be a hallmark of the pseudo or false
left. Does the suspension of democratic process not cause this soft left any problems at all?
Look at Sweden, at Belarus no lockdown and no problem.
It should be noted that there are a great many terrific doctors in the US. Dedicated and
brilliant, often. But they are not the system. The system is run for profit.
With about three-fourths of Americans under lockdown, the unintended consequences will
be vast. There has been a notable decrease in the number of heart attack and stroke
patients arriving at hospitals, presumably because they are afraid of catching the
coronavirus or of not finding a hospital bed.
As the economy spirals downward, we can also expect an increase in mental health crises,
domestic violence and suicides. While lockdown supporters say that to have a functioning
economy, we must have good public health, the reverse is also true: To have good public
health, we must have a functioning economy.
– Alex Berezow PhD (Geopolitical Futures, 2020)
Alfred Willener wrote an interesting book in 1970, analysing May 68 in France. He analyses
the answers students gave to various questionnaires they responded to. The section regarding
science is worth quoting.
'The scandalous fact is that, for all the means that science has put at our disposal,
most people live not much better than in the Middle Ages'. The system benefits from science
in the following way: through the atom bomb, through 'the power of statistical research',
through computers, through the chemical industry being 'in the hands of the state', through
space research.
'In the end, you realize', concludes one reasonably logical reply, 'that technological
progress, which makes economic growth possible, does not satisfy the fundamental needs of
man and is used above all to maintain and strengthen the system'.
Lastly, I should like to quote one quite unexpected reply, which forms the extreme point
of pessimism: ' Everyone is oppressed by science.'
– Alfred Willener (The Action-Image of Society on Cultural
Politicization)
I doubt seriously one would get such responses today in any European or North American
country. The contemporary indoctrination regards science is acute. And the media abounds in
junk science. Click bait science. And this is where most people have their opinions formed
for them.
There is a paper put out by one of the founders of the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab,
called The Great Reset. The conclusion of the book reads
...at a global level, if viewed in terms of the global population affected, the corona
crisis is (so far) one of the least deadly pandemics the world has experienced over the
last 2000 years."
In other words, a mortality of .06% is simply not commensurate with the extreme measures
the governments of the world (the West in particular) are taking.
There is no question, none, that those measures, the lockdown, the masks, the distancing,
and the attending *diseases of despair*, will kill more people by a factor of ten than the
virus itself.
This is not even to begin discussing the psychological harm done, in particular to
children. And not just harm to children, but severe
harm to the most vulnerable .
What is being internalized by children is three fold. One, there is something inherently
sick and contagious about ME. Two, everyone MIGHT be a threat to my health. And three, obey
authority, because you don't want to end up like those smelly homeless people were are trying
to hard to avoid.
Children take things personally. They tend to blame themselves. Even in the comparative
sanity of Norway, where I reside, children are increasingly anxious about the world. How
could they not be? All this for a health risk of .06%.
But it is more than just the decimation of the economy in the US and UK. It is a
dismantling of the culture. One in three museums closed because of Covid will not re-open.
Ever. Where does all that art go?
Just a guess but probably very wealthy collectors will gobble it up at wholesale
prices.
The predictable outcome of these lockdowns, certainly in the US, is a guaranteed minimum
income. Very minimum. Restrictions on travel, all freedom of movement in fact, will not soon
return to normal. Various forms of surveillance and tracking, as well as health
certifications, are the goal of the state.
Also, if this pandemic succeeded so well, with so little resistance, why not have another?
And there is another aspect to the SWAT mask police, and that is that western society is
becoming alarmingly hypochondriacal. Children are kept out of school for runny noses. If all
kids with snotty noses were kept out of class, nobody would get an education.
There is a dire future of two or three generations now developing and maturing with very
weak immune systems. So that if a natural mutation takes place one day, from a Corona virus
or any other, a genuinely serious pandemic could kill tens of millions.
It is not a speculation that there are people who prosper and even benefit during an
economic crisis -- as smaller business owners struggle, large corporations and banks
benefit from huge government subsidies, giving them more power to buy failing small
businesses, for example. And it is a fact that many of those people have enormous economic
power to shape the policies that can benefit themselves.
It is not a speculation that they would appreciate having strict measures of control
against the people by limiting their freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, and freedom to
travel, or by installing means of surveillance, check points and official certifications
for activities that might give freedom to the people beyond the capitalist framework.
It is not a speculation that they would benefit from moving our social interactions to
the digital realm, which can commodify our activities as marketable data for the
advertising industry, insurance industry and any other moneyed social institutions
Including education, political institution, legal institution, and financial
institution.
Such matters should be seen within the context of the western history being shaped by
unelected capitalists with their enormous networks of social institutions.
– Hiroyuki Hamada (Wrong Kind of Green, April 2020)
The collapse of retail is accelerating. This is emerging as a monopolization of retail.
Few shops will remain, in fact, except luxury stores in select gated areas. The rest will be
online and probably rudimentary. The culture and the economy are being strip-mined and
recreated for a select clientele. The collapse of the economy means the collapse of the
bottom 90% or so.
The very richest men and corporations on the planet are making huge profits.
And yet, there are precious few voices of dissent to the master narrative in the US. In
Norway, the lockdown was about five weeks. But its a sparsely populated country and one
hardly noticed it save for the kids being home and not in school. But schools reopened and
the Prime Minister actually made a speech apologizing, in effect, for an *unnecessary*
lockdown. She had been frightened.
But now, with a mild uptick in positive cases the country is considering stricter
limitations on travel. Why?
There is no uptick in deaths, only in positive test results. The fact remains the virus
attacks the aged and the already sick. But this is very telling, I think. The Norwegian
government doesn't want to be seen as disobedient. They don't want to not follow the grand
plan provided by western agencies and experts. Even if they seemingly don't really believe
it.
(The saddest aspect is the voice of Dr. Mads Gilbert, a known advocate for Palestinian
rights, who has weighed in on the side of fear. Why? I have no idea. But it is worth noting
his predictions
from March 2020 were staggeringly wrong.)
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But clearly the groupthink pressure is powerful and small nations do not want to be
singled out for bucking the *science* . There are economic coercions threatened, tacitly, as
well. The pressure to conform is huge and it takes a Herculean effort -- both individually
and as a nation, to resist. And *experts* seem to have a hard time admitting they were
wrong.
The science has been consistently wrong from day one.
As I say, this is now allegory. Or fable. There is nothing reasonable or rational in the
lockdown measures of the US and UK and NZ. Or anywhere. And this is not even to touch upon
the criminality of the Gates Foundation and Bill Gates buying public influence and
visibility. Not trained in any medical discipline, Gates has somehow made himself one of the
faces of the pandemic.
And to deconstruct Gates' language is to find a disturbing quality of authoritarian
hubris. Gates utters declarations as if he were God speaking to his flock. All from a man who
has done little save steal from his partners and exploit the poor of India and Africa. One of
the most striking aspects of this whole last few months has been the enormous and coordinated
effort the Gates machine has put into rehabilitating his image.
If you google "Crimes of the Gates Foundation" for example, you will get ten different
fact-checkers officially denying any crimes and another half dozen articles ridiculing those
who question Gates motives, his profit from vaccines, or even his alignment with eugenicists
(depopulation adherents)– all are derided as, yes, conspiracy theorists.
If you dare to question the rushing of an untested vaccine you are called an
anti-vaxxer.
My children are vaccinated. I just don't like the idea of a hurried untested vaccine
produced for a virus that needs no vaccine. And one promoted by a creepy millionaire.
But clearly the Gates charm offensive is in overdrive. The pastel cardigan is everywhere.
And yet, his favorable rating in recent surveys is around 56%. That is actually not very high
given the amount of self-promotion involved. It's better than Mark Zuckerberg and Joe Biden,
though. Gates is not likeable. No amount of spin can change that.
The final factor to note is the Trump effect. Many liberals would literally rather see
dead in the street if it meant discrediting Trump. It is no longer quite a zero sum game,
though. But overall the hatred of Trump is now at a religious level, too.
And behold, the opposition is Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. If you want a window in the
black heart of Biden, watch and/or listen to his testimony around the Waco inferno. The
inherent sadism and lack of humanity is glaringly apparent.
As for Kamala Harris:
As a San Francisco social worker, I sat on the school district committee that met with
families of chronically truant students. Once, when we asked a student why he didn't go to
school, he said there was too much police tape and shootings at his school bus stop.
Harris, as CA Attorney General, was putting parents/caregivers in jail if their child
was chronically truant. Also as Attorney General, she denied a DNA test to Kevin Cooper, a
very likely innocent man who came within hours of execution in 2004.
– Riva Enteen (Counterpunch Aug. 2020)
These are the servants of capital.
The left should be emphasising the economic aspect of lockdown because it is the working
class who are the principal victims of lockdown."
- Phil Shannon (Lockdown Skeptics, June 2020)
A Downing street tweet today:
We're putting tougher measures in place to target serious breaches of coronavirus
restrictions. Fines for not wearing a face-covering will double for repeat offences, up to
£3,200."
This is a class-based assault. The wealthy will not be fined for not wearing a
face-covering on their private beaches, or dinner parties at the yacht club.
While experts across the world search for a vaccine to tackle the dangerous new infection,
Russian health bosses have identified a trio of existing medicines to combat 2019-nCoV in
adults.
The new coronavirus can be fought with ribavirin, lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon
beta-1b, they believe. These drugs are typically used to treat hepatitis C, HIV and multiple
sclerosis respectively.
The Ministry of Health advisory not only offers recommendations, but also describes how the
treatments work and in what quantities they should be prescribed. The guidelines are intended
for doctors in hospitals throughout the country.
... ... ...
One of the drugs recommended, ribavirin, was used in the treatment of the 2003 Chinese SARS
outbreak, which infected over 8,000 people and killed 774 across 17 different countries. The
new coronavirus has shown a sizeable genetic similarity with SARS, with one sequence comparison
showing a match of 79.5%.
The ministry also instructs that, in order to prevent and reduce the severity of symptoms,
medication should be consumed within two days of contact with an infected person. Their
prevention recommendations also include sanitary and hygiene rules, such as handwashing and
wearing protective masks.
As scientists race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, experts say obesity could prove an
impediment -- a sobering prospect for a nation in which nearly half of all adults are
obese.
For a world crippled by the coronavirus, salvation hinges on a vaccine.
But in the United States, where at least 4.6 million people have been infected and nearly
155,000 have died, the promise of that vaccine is hampered by a vexing epidemic that long
preceded COVID-19: obesity.
Scientists know that vaccines engineered to protect the public from influenza, hepatitis B,
tetanus and rabies can be less effective in obese adults than in the general population,
leaving them more vulnerable to infection and illness. There is little reason to believe,
obesity researchers say, that COVID-19 vaccines will be any different.
"Will we have a COVID vaccine next year tailored to the obese? No way," said Raz Shaikh,
an associate professor of nutrition at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
"Will it still work in the obese? Our prediction is no."
More than 107 million American adults are obese, and their ability to return safely to work,
care for their families and resume daily life could be curtailed if the coronavirus vaccine
delivers weak immunity for them.
In March, still early in the global pandemic, a little-noticed study from China found that
heavier Chinese patients afflicted with COVID-19 were more likely to die than leaner ones,
suggesting a perilous future awaited the U.S., whose population is among the heaviest in the
world.
As intensive care units in New York, New Jersey and elsewhere filled with patients, the
federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that obese people with a body mass
index of 40 or more -- known as morbid obesity or about 100 pounds overweight -- were among the
groups at highest risk of becoming severely ill with COVID-19. About 9% of American adults are
in that category.
As weeks passed and a clearer picture of who was being hospitalized came into focus, federal
health officials expanded their warning to include people with a body mass index of
30 or more. That vastly expanded the ranks of those considered vulnerable to the most
severe cases of infection, to 42.4% of American adults.
Obesity has long been known to be a significant risk factor for death from cardiovascular
disease and cancer. But scientists in the emerging field of immunometabolism are finding
obesity also interferes with the body's immune response, putting obese people at greater risk
of infection from pathogens such as influenza and the novel coronavirus. In the case of
influenza, obesity has emerged as a factor making it more difficult to vaccinate adults against
infection. The question is whether that will hold true for COVID-19.
A healthy immune system turns inflammation on and off as needed, calling on white blood
cells and sending out proteins to fight infection. Vaccines harness that inflammatory response.
But blood tests show that obese people and people with related metabolic risk factors such as
high blood pressure and elevated blood sugar levels experience a state of chronic mild
inflammation ; the inflammation turns on and stays on.
Adipose tissue -- or fat -- in the belly, the liver and other organs is not inert; it
contains specialized cells that send out molecules, like the hormone leptin, that scientists
suspect induces this chronic state of inflammation. While the exact biological mechanisms are
still being investigated, chronic inflammation seems to interfere with the immune response to
vaccines, possibly subjecting obese people to preventable illnesses even after vaccination.
An effective vaccine fuels a controlled burn inside the body, searing into cellular memory a
mock invasion that never truly happened.
Evidence that obese people have a blunted response to common vaccines was first observed in
1985 when obese hospital employees who received the hepatitis B vaccine showed a significant
decline in protection 11 months later that was not observed in non-obese employees. The finding
was replicated in a follow-up study that used longer needles to ensure the vaccine was injected
into muscle and not fat.
Researchers found similar problems with the hepatitis A vaccine, and other studies have
found significant declines in the antibody protection induced by tetanus and rabies vaccines in
obese people.
"Obesity is a serious global problem, and the suboptimal vaccine-induced immune responses
observed in the obese population cannot be ignored," pleaded researchers from the Mayo
Clinic's Vaccine Research Group in a 2015 study published in the journal Vaccine.
Vaccines also are known to be less effective in older adults, which is why those 65 and
older receive a supercharged annual influenza vaccine that contains far more flu virus antigens
to help juice up their immune response.
By contrast, the diminished protection of the obese population -- both adults and children
-- has been largely ignored.
"I'm not entirely sure why vaccine efficacy in this population hasn't been more well
reported," said Catherine Andersen, an assistant professor of biology at Fairfield University
who studies obesity and metabolic diseases. "It's a missed opportunity for greater public
health intervention."
In 2017, scientists at UNC-Chapel Hill provided a critical clue about the limitations of the
influenza vaccine. In a paper published in the International
Journal of Obesity , they showed for the first time that vaccinated obese adults were twice
as likely as adults of a healthy weight to develop influenza or flu-like illness.
Curiously, they found that adults with obesity did produce a protective level of antibodies
to the influenza vaccine, but they still responded poorly.
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"That was the mystery," said Chad Petit, an influenza virologist at the University of
Alabama.
One hypothesis, Petit said, is that obesity may trigger a metabolic dysregulation of T
cells, white blood cells critical to the immune response.
"It's not insurmountable," said Petit, who is researching COVID-19 in obese patients. "We
can design better vaccines that might overcome this discrepancy."
Historically, people with high BMIs often have been excluded from drug trials because they
frequently have related chronic conditions that might mask the results. The clinical trials
underway to test the safety and efficacy of a coronavirus vaccine do not have a BMI exclusion
and will include people with obesity, said Dr. Larry Corey, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer
Research Center, who is overseeing the phase 3 trials sponsored by the National Institutes of
Health.
Although trial coordinators are not specifically focused on obesity as a potential
complication, Corey said, participants' BMI will be documented and results evaluated.
Dr. Timothy Garvey, an endocrinologist and director of diabetes research at the University
of Alabama, was among those who stressed that, despite the lingering questions, it is still
safer for obese people to get vaccinated than not.
"The influenza vaccine still works in patients with obesity, but just not as well," Garvey
said. "We still want them to get vaccinated."
This new
study detailed in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on May 20,
discovered that the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which grows in abundance as the
individual grows, might be the reason that less than two percent of all individuals infected
with SARS-CoV-2 - the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease - are children.
Researchers had suspected that COVID-19 susceptibility could be linked to the amount of gene
expression of ACE2 seen in the nasal cavity, given that the
enzyme acts as a receptor to allow the SARS-CoV-2 virus to pass into the body.
To investigate this potential link, researchers looked for a relationship between the two -
the level of gene expression of ACE2 in the nose and COVID-19 infection - by taking nasal swabs
from 305 people involved in an asthma study . Researchers hypothesized that the lower the
levels of enzyme gene expression, the less likely it is a person will be infected by
COVID-19.
Researchers said they chose to swab the nose because it is one of the first access points
for SARS-CoV-2 to infect an individual.
Samples were taken from both asthmatic (49.8 percent) and non-asthmatic patients. The 305
people involved in the study were between four to 60 years of age.
Researchers said they found a clear association between ACE2 expression and age - opening up
a possible explanation as to why most children, who tend to have lower levels of enzyme
expression, are less susceptible to COVID-19.
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Supinda Bunyavanich, professor of Genetics and Genomic Sciences and Paediatrics at Mount
Sinai, said in a
press release that the study found "that there are low levels of ACE2 expression in the
nasal passages of younger children, and this ACE2 level increases with age into adulthood.
"This might explain why children have been largely spared in the pandemic," Bunyavanich
said.
Last week we warned
readers to be cautious about new COVID-19 vaccines, highlighting how key parts of the clinical
trials are being skipped as big pharma will not be held accountable for adverse side effects
for administering the experimental drugs.
A senior executive from AstraZeneca, Britain's second-largest drugmaker, told
Reuters that his company was just granted protection from all legal action if the company's
vaccine led to damaging side effects.
As the world awaits a COVID-19 vaccine, the next big advance in battling the pandemic could
come from a class of biotech therapies widely used against cancer and other disorders -
antibodies designed specifically to attack this new virus.
Last week we warned
readers to be cautious about new COVID-19 vaccines, highlighting how key parts of the clinical
trials are being skipped as big pharma will not be held accountable for adverse side effects
for administering the experimental drugs.
A senior executive from AstraZeneca, Britain's second-largest drugmaker, told
Reuters that his company was just granted protection from all legal action if the company's
vaccine led to damaging side effects.
"... And while being overweight does not seem to increase people's chances of contracting COVID-19 according to the study, it can affect the respiratory system, and potentially immune function as well. ..."
Just in case Americans - the most obese nation in the world - needed another reason to lose
some weight, here it is.
In what is emerging as a perfidious Catch 22, at a time when the US population is rapidly
gaining weight due to mandatory work from home regulation (hence the Covid 19 pounds ) as
described
here and
here , while a surge in domestic alcohol consumption is only making the matters
worse...
... Public Health England has published a
paper titled " Excess Weight and COVID-19 Insights from new evidence ", indicating that the
risks of hospitalization, intensive care treatment and death increase progressively with
increasing body mass index (BMI) above the healthy weight range even after adjustment for
potential confounding factors, including demographic and socioeconomic factors. In other words,
the fatter one is, the higher the risk that person may die from covid.
Some more details: according to the Public Health England paper, the hazard ratios of ICU
admission patients who are overweight (BMI ≥25-29.9), obese (BMI ≥30-34.9) or severely
obese (BMI ≥35) are 1.64, 2.59 and 4.35, respectively see figure below) relative to patients
with a BMI of ≥20-24.9.
And while being overweight does not seem to increase people's chances of contracting
COVID-19 according to the study, it can affect the respiratory system, and potentially immune
function as well.
And since no crisis will ever be put to waste by a nanny state which after the covid
pandemic will control virtually every aspect of our lives, the British government plans to
initiate an anti-obesity campaign including strict rules on how junk food is advertised and
sold in the UK.
This book is likely required reading for those who have suffered from COVID-19. It's only
76 pages, but only costs $1.99 for the Kindle edition. I downloaded a copy from the Internet
and will tuck it away for when I'm unlucky (assuming I would live long enough to try
them.)
Russia's health minister is preparing a mass vaccination campaign against the novel
coronavirus for October, local news agencies reported on Saturday, after a vaccine completed
clinical trials.
Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said the Gamaleya Institute, a state research facility in
Moscow, had completed clinical trials of the vaccine and paperwork is being prepared to
register it, Interfax news agency reported.
He said doctors and teachers would be the first to be vaccinated.
" We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any,
protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to
Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that
is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30
minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is
therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction
to anxiety over the pandemic."
The problem of false positives from Covid-19 tests means UK is inflating its numbers – and taking wrong decisions
Rob Lyons
Rob Lyons
is a UK journalist specialising in science, environmental and health issues. He is the author of '
Panic
on a Plate: How Society Developed an Eating Disorder'.
A sign is seen at a drive-through coronavirus disease
(COVID-19) testing facility in Hyde Park, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease, London, Britain, June 11,
2020
When seven staff at a Scottish football club tested positive for coronavirus, alarm bells went off. But really alarming was
when six of those results turned out to be wrong. Such inaccurate tests are exaggerating the problem.
Last weekend, at very
short notice, the UK reintroduced quarantine measures for people arriving from Spain. For those already in Spain, or for whom
it was too late to postpone their trip, the decision is very inconvenient. For those who can't work at home when they return,
it may mean missing out on wages for the two weeks they will have to spend in isolation when they get back. But what if the
apparent rise in cases has been exaggerated by seemingly small flaws with testing?
The potential for problems
was illustrated by Scottish football team St Mirren last week. The club, based in Paisley, a town just west of Glasgow,
reported seven positive test results for Covid-19 among its staff. Alarm bells went off about what this might mean for the new
Scottish football season. But this
"cluster"
was a mirage. When the seven people
were re-tested using a more accurate method,
just
one
of them was found to be Covid-positive.
In Spain, half of the
reported
cases
have
been in people who had no symptoms. We know that many people who test positive never suffer any symptoms. But what if many of
these people don't have Covid-19 at all?
If that sounds
implausible, it's important to know that tests are not perfect. There are currently two kinds of tests to see if you have the
disease. One kind, the molecular real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, looks for genetic material from the virus.
This kind seems to be very accurate, but it's expensive and time-consuming. The other kind, the antigen test, detects specific
proteins on the surface of the virus. This is quicker, easier and cheaper, but it's much less accurate. In developed
countries, RT-PCR testing is the norm, but poorer countries may have to make do with antigen testing.
The difficulty at the
moment is that there are relatively few cases of Covid-19 in the community, but more and more testing is being done. So even
if the RT-PCR test has a high
"specificity"
– that is, a tiny fraction of test
results are false positives – the number could actually be quite significant. For example, let's say that 99.9 percent of the
time, a test correctly identifies someone without the disease as negative. Just 0.1 percent of tests produce false positives.
Recently, in the UK, it
was estimated that 0.04 percent of people had the virus outside of care homes and hospitals. So, if we tested 10,000 people,
we should find four cases of Covid-19, on average. Of the 9,996 other people tested, in this hypothetical example, 0.1 percent
who don't have the virus would also test positive – that's 9.996 – in other words, 10 people. So, even if the test is very
accurate indeed, we could easily end up with four positive tests from people who really do have the virus and 10 false
positives from people who don't.
For any particular
individual, the chances of the test being a false positive is small. But when we look at the big picture, we could easily be
fooled into thinking that there are many more cases than there really are. Indeed, with a test accuracy of 99.9 percent, if
you tested a million people, none of whom actually had the disease, you would produce 1,000 positive results. And for tests
with less accuracy – as with St Mirren FC – the situation could be even worse.
The UK government has now
performed nearly 11 million tests. Could there be 11,000
"cases"
that are simply
a
mistake
? In turn, that means governments and other authorities might be introducing additional restrictions on people's
lives that are actually unnecessary.
The problem of false positives is much less significant when the disease really is in wide circulation. It doesn't change the
picture much for the period from mid-March through to the start of June. (In any event, in the UK at least, there was very
little testing capacity thanks to the jaw-dropping incompetence of bodies like Public Health England.)
Let's look at the latest
figures. On Sunday, July 26, for example, 142,954 tests were processed. Of these, 747 were found to be positive. If 0.1
percent of tests are false positives, we would expect 142 of those 747 positives to be false. If the test turns out to be
slightly less accurate – perhaps 'only' 99.5 percent accurate (which still seems very good), then 710, almost all the reported
positives, could be false.
We should also bear in
mind, when trying to assess the overall situation, that there will be some false negatives. There will also be people who
don't show symptoms who do have the virus and never get tested. But this understanding shows that we do need to be careful
about reading too much into every small blip in the number of cases. We should be particularly sceptical about imposing new
restrictions like mandatory quarantine. And if we rely solely on these tests, we could have the crazy situation where Covid-19
apparently never disappears, even when nobody has got it.
Think your friends would be
interested? Share this story!
I remember signs on businesses that said "No shirts, no shoes: no service". I don't recall
morons screaming at underpaid clerks about their constitutional right not to wear a shirt or
shoes.
Population density has at least something to do with it. Big cities are the hardest hit, as
would be expected. The US death rate per capita is below that of Belgium, the UK, Spain, Italy,
Sweden, Peru (which is surprising), Chile (another surprise), and France.
I fail to see your problem with masks. My grandfather wore a gas mask on the front during
World War 1. I wear a mask, indeed a N99 mask, when sawing concrete or doing fine wood
sanding. When I was in the chemical process industry, some stations had Oxygen rebreathers to
deal with the hazards in case of accidents.
Medical staff have always worn respirators around
patients with airborne diseases, as have researchers handling such agents. Covid-19,
Tuberculosis, and late stage plague are all airborne. Wearing a mask when in a situation when
you are potentially exposed is common sense.
So wearing my N99 mask when I go shopping is a trivial additional step. I actually wear
nitrile gloves as well - I had them for dealing with paints and solvents.
Now I have had to give up eating out and going to my professional society meetings. I am
not happy about that, but I am not willfully stupid. I am approaching 70...
To me : A proper person dresses properly for the occasion. A proper person has high
regard for both himself and others. A proper person does not smoke in a no smoking zone. A
proper person places his child in a child restraint seat while riding in a car. And on and
on with other safety festures that we accept.You get my point.
What I would have you do is to do the three things that I mentioned.
Social distance. Good hygiene protocol. And yes wear a mask. A rhetorical question.
Would you permit a surgeon and every other person in an operating room go about the surgery
masklessess?
Real science and evidence won't convince the Coronadoom kool-aid drinkers. Masks are all
about signalling one's virtue and submission to arbitrary rules and to be seen as "doing
something". That the virus has an IFR in the range of flu and that mask are ineffective in
stopping spread of viruses doesn't matter to them. They want to force everyone to abdicate
human dignity and act in the same paranoid, abject manner as they do. It's all political
and has been form the beginning.
So if masks are ineffective, are you comfortable having your surgery team not wear masks
and breathe all over you while you're cut open? If not, why not, since masks are
ineffective?
I work in a hospital. The people who say Covid is just flu both don't understand how bad
Covid is and also don't understand how deadly the flu can be.
A third thing they don't understand is that cloth or surgical masks are about preventing
asymptomatic transmission, which is a real thing. I've seen people die from Covid that they
caught from someone who was "perfectly healthy."
It is such a simple, small thing to do, and has nothing to do with virtue signalling and
everything to do with not killing other people because you're carrying a virus and don't
know it. Some of the most Trump supporting people I've ever met work in this hospital and
wear masks everywhere they go to protect others, because they understand what Covid is.
C'mon people, if other countries can get this right without all the hand-wringing, so
can we.
Umm, actually I am a frontline non clinical hospital worker. I guess you're a bot but if
my reasoning is emotive can you kindly share the peer reviewed data upon which you base
your perspective?
On June 26, a small South San Francisco company called Vaxart made a surprise announcement:
A coronavirus vaccine it was working on had been selected by the U.S. government to be part of
Operation Warp Speed, the flagship federal initiative to quickly develop drugs to combat
Covid-19.
Vaxart's shares soared. Company insiders, who weeks earlier had received stock options worth
a few million dollars, saw the value of those awards increase sixfold. And a hedge fund that
partly controlled the company walked away with more than $200 million in instant profits.
The race is on to develop a coronavirus vaccine, and some companies and investors are
betting that the winners stand to earn vast profits from selling hundreds of millions -- or
even billions -- of doses to a desperate public.
Across the pharmaceutical and medical industries, senior executives and board members are
capitalizing on that dynamic.
They are making millions of dollars after announcing positive developments, including
support from the government, in their efforts to fight Covid-19. After such announcements,
insiders from at least 11 companies -- most of them smaller firms whose fortunes often hinge on
the success or failure of a single drug -- have sold shares worth well over $1 billion since
March, according to figures compiled for The New York Times by Equilar, a data
provider.
In some cases, company insiders are profiting from regularly scheduled compensation or
automatic stock trades. But in other situations, senior officials appear to be pouncing on
opportunities to cash out while their stock prices are sky high. And some companies have
awarded stock options to executives shortly before market-moving announcements about their
vaccine progress.
The sudden windfalls highlight the powerful financial incentives for company officials to
generate positive headlines in the race
for coronavirus vaccines and treatments , even if the drugs might never pan out.
Some companies are attracting government scrutiny for potentially using their associations
with Operation Warp Speed as marketing ploys.
For example, the headline on Vaxart's news release declared: "Vaxart's Covid-19 Vaccine
Selected for the U.S. Government's Operation Warp Speed." But the reality is more complex.
Vaxart's vaccine candidate was included in a trial on primates that a federal agency was
organizing in conjunction with Operation Warp Speed. But Vaxart is not among the companies
selected to receive significant financial support from Warp Speed to produce hundreds of
millions of vaccine doses.
"The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has entered into funding agreements with
certain vaccine manufacturers, and we are negotiating with others. Neither is the case with
Vaxart," said Michael R. Caputo, the department's assistant secretary for public affairs.
"Vaxart's vaccine candidate was selected to participate in preliminary U.S. government studies
to determine potential areas for possible Operation Warp Speed partnership and support. At this
time, those studies are ongoing, and no determinations have been made."
Some officials at the Department of Health and Human Services have grown concerned about
whether companies including Vaxart are trying to inflate their stock prices by exaggerating
their roles in Warp Speed, a senior Trump administration official said. The department has
relayed those concerns to the Securities and Exchange Commission, said the official, who spoke
on the condition of anonymity.
It isn't clear if the commission is looking into the matter. An S.E.C. spokeswoman declined
to comment.
"Vaxart abides by good corporate governance guidelines and policies and makes decisions in
accordance with the best interests of the company and its shareholders," Vaxart's chief
executive, Andrei Floroiu, said in a statement on Friday. Referring to Operation Warp Speed, he
added, "We believe that Vaxart's Covid-19 vaccine is the most exciting one in O.W.S. because it
is the only oral vaccine (a pill) in O.W.S."
Well-timed stock transactions are generally legal. But investors and corporate governance
experts say they can create the appearance that executives are profiting from inside
information, and could erode public confidence in the pharmaceutical industry when the world is
looking to these companies to cure Covid-19.
"It is inappropriate for drug company executives to cash in on a crisis," said Ben Wakana,
executive director of Patients for Affordable Drugs, a nonprofit advocacy group. "Every day,
Americans wake up and make sacrifices during this pandemic. Drug companies see this as a
payday."
Executives at a long list of companies have reaped seven- or eight-figure profits thanks to
their work on coronavirus vaccines and treatments.
Shares of Regeneron, a biotech company in Tarrytown, N.Y., have climbed nearly 80 percent
since early February, when it announced a collaboration with the Department of Health and Human
Services to develop a Covid-19 treatment. Since then, the company's top executives and board
members have sold nearly $700 million in stock. The chief executive, Leonard Schleifer, sold
$178 million of shares on a single day in May.
Alexandra Bowie, a spokeswoman for Regeneron, said most of those sales had been scheduled in
advance through programs that automatically sell executives' shares if the stock hits a certain
price.
Moderna, a 10-year-old vaccine developer based in Cambridge, Mass., that has never brought a
product to market, announced in late January that it was working on a coronavirus vaccine. It
has issued a stream of news releases hailing its vaccine progress, and its stock has more than
tripled, giving the company a market value of almost $30 billion.
Moderna insiders have sold about $248 million of shares since that January announcement,
most of it after the company
was selected in April to receive federal funding to support its vaccine efforts.
While some of those sales were scheduled in advance, others were more spur of the moment.
Flagship Ventures, an investment fund run by the company's founder and chairman, Noubar Afeyan,
sold more than $68 million worth of Moderna shares on May 21. Those transactions were not
scheduled in advance, according to securities filings.
Executives and board members at Luminex, Quidel and Emergent BioSolutions have sold shares
worth a combined $85 million after announcing they were working on vaccines, treatments or
testing solutions.
At other companies, executives and board members received large grants of stock options
shortly before the companies announced good news that lifted the value of those options.
Novavax, a drugmaker in
Gaithersburg, Md., began working on a vaccine early this year. This spring, the company
reported promising preliminary test results and a $1.6
billion deal with the Trump administration.
In April, with its shares below $24, Novavax issued a batch of new stock awards to all its
employees "in acknowledgment of the extraordinary work of our employees to implement a new
vaccine program." Four senior executives, including the chief executive, Stanley Erck, received
stock options that were worth less than $20 million at the time.
Since then, Novavax's stock has rocketed to more than $130 a share. At least on paper, the
four executives' stock options are worth more than $100 million.
So long as the company hits a milestone with its vaccine testing, which it is expected to
achieve soon, the executives will be able to use the options to buy discounted Novavax shares
as early as next year, regardless of whether the company develops a successful vaccine.
Silvia Taylor, a Novavax spokeswoman, said the stock awards were designed "to incentivize
and retain our employees during this critical time." She added that "there is no guarantee they
will retain their value."
Two other drugmakers, Translate Bio and Inovio, awarded large batches of stock options to
executives and board members shortly before they announced progress on their coronavirus
vaccines, sending shares higher. Representatives of the companies said the options were
regularly scheduled annual grants.
Vaxart, though, is where the most money was made the fastest.
At the start of the year, its shares were around 35 cents. Then in late January, Vaxart
began working on an orally administered coronavirus vaccine, and its shares started rising.
Vaxart's largest shareholder was a New York hedge fund, Armistice Capital, which last year
acquired nearly two-thirds of the company's shares. Two Armistice executives, including the
hedge fund's founder, Steven Boyd,
joined Vaxart's board of directors. The hedge fund also purchased rights, known as
warrants, to buy 21 million more Vaxart shares at some point in the future for as little as 30
cents each.
Vaxart has never brought a vaccine to market. It has just 15 employees. But throughout the
spring, Vaxart announced positive preliminary data for its vaccine, along with a partnership
with a company that could manufacture it. By late April, with investors sensing the potential
for big profits, the company's shares had reached $3.66 -- a tenfold increase from January.
On June 8, Vaxart changed the terms of its warrants agreement with Armistice, making it
easier for the hedge fund to rapidly acquire the 21 million shares, rather than having to buy
and sell in smaller batches.
One week later, Vaxart announced that its chief executive was stepping down, though he would
remain chairman. The new C.E.O., Mr. Floroiu, had previously worked with Mr. Boyd, Armistice's
founder, at the hedge fund and the consulting firm McKinsey.
On June 25, Vaxart announced that it had signed a letter of intent with another company that
might help it mass-produce a coronavirus vaccine. Vaxart's shares nearly doubled that day.
The next day, Vaxart issued its news release saying it had been
selected for Operation Warp Speed. Its shares instantly doubled again, at one pointing
hitting $14, their highest level in years.
"We are very pleased to be one of the few companies selected by Operation Warp Speed, and
that ours is the only oral vaccine being evaluated," Mr. Floroiu said.
Armistice took advantage of the stock's exponential increase -- at that point up more than
3,600 percent since January. On June 26, a Friday, and the next Monday, the hedge fund
exercised its warrants to buy nearly 21 million Vaxart shares for either 30 cents or $1.10 a
share -- purchases it would not have been able to make as quickly had its agreement with Vaxart
not been modified weeks earlier.
Armistice then immediately sold the shares at prices from $6.58 to $12.89 a share, according
to securities filings. The hedge fund's profits were immense: more than $197 million.
"It looks like the warrants may have been reconfigured at a time when they knew good news
was coming," said Robert Daines, a professor at Stanford Law School who is an expert on
corporate governance. "That's a valuable change, made right as the company's stock price was
about to rise."
At the same time, the hedge fund also unloaded some of the Vaxart shares it had previously
bought, notching tens of millions of dollars in additional profits.
By the end of that Monday, June 29, Armistice had sold almost all of its Vaxart shares.
Mr. Boyd and Armistice declined to comment.
Mr. Floroiu said the change to the Armistice agreement "was in the best interests of Vaxart
and its stockholders" and helped it raise money to work on the Covid-19 vaccine.
He and other Vaxart board members also were positioned for big personal profits. When he
became chief executive in mid-June, Mr. Floroiu received stock options that were worth about
$4.3 million. A month later, those options were worth more than $28 million.
Normally when companies issue stock options to executives, the options can't be exercised
for months or years. Because of the unusual terms and the run-up in Vaxart's stock price, most
of Mr. Floroiu's can be cashed in now.
Vaxart's board members also received large grants of stock options, giving them the right to
buy shares in the company at prices well below where the stock is now trading. The higher the
shares fly, the bigger the profits.
"Vaxart is disrupting the vaccine world," Mr. Floroiu boasted during a virtual investor
conference on Thursday. He added that his impression was that "it's OK to make a profit from
Covid vaccines, as long as you're not profiteering."
Craig
Murray lambasts a Russophobic media that celebrates a supposed cyber attack on UK vaccine research, ignores collapse
of key evidence of a "hack" and dabbles in dubious memorabilia.
The Guardian's
headquarters
in London.
(Bryantbob,
CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
Andrew Marr, center, in 2014.
(
Financial
Times
, Flickr)
A whole slew of these were rehearsed by Andrew Marr on his flagship BBC1 morning show. The latest is the accusation
that Russia is responsible for a cyber attack on Covid-19 vaccination research. This is another totally evidence-free
accusation. But it misses the point anyway.
The alleged cyber attack, if it happened, was a hack not an attack -- the allegation is that there was an effort to
obtain the results of research, not to disrupt research. It is appalling that the U.K. is trying to keep its research
results secret rather than share them freely with the world scientific community.
As I have
reported
before
, the U.K. and the USA have been preventing the WHO from implementing a common research and common vaccine
solution for Covid-19, insisting instead on a profit driven approach to benefit the big pharmaceutical companies (and
disadvantage the global poor).
What makes the accusation that Russia tried to hack the research even more dubious is the fact that Russia had
just
bought
the very research specified. You don't steal things you already own.
Evidence of CIA Hacks
If anybody had indeed hacked the research, we all know it is impossible to trace with certainty the whereabouts of
hackers. My VPNs [virtual private networks] are habitually set to India, Australia or South Africa depending on where
I am trying to watch the cricket, dodging broadcasting restrictions.
More pertinently,
WikiLeaks'
Vault
7 release of CIA material showed the
specific
programs
for the CIA in how to leave clues to make a leak look like it came from Russia. This irrefutable
evidence that the CIA do computer hacks with apparent Russian "fingerprints" deliberately left, like little bits of
Cyrillic script, is an absolutely classic example of a fact that everybody working in the mainstream media knows to
be true, but which they all contrive never to mention.
Thus when last week's "Russian hacking" story was briefed by the security services -- that former Labour Party Leader
Jeremy Corbyn deployed secret documents on U.K./U.S. trade talks which had been posted on Reddit, after being stolen
by an evil Russian who left his name of Grigor in his Reddit handle -- there was no questioning in the media of this
narrative. Instead, we had another round of McCarthyite witch-hunt aimed at the rather tired looking Corbyn.
Personally, if the Russians had been responsible for revealing that the Tories are prepared to open up the NHS
"market" to big American companies, including ending or raising caps on pharmaceutical prices, I should be very
grateful to the Russians for telling us. Just as the world would owe the Russians a favor if it were indeed them who
leaked evidence of just how systematically the DNC rigged the 2016 primaries against Bernie Sanders.
But as it happens, it was not the Russians. The latter case was a leak by a disgusted insider, and I very much
suspect the NHS U.S. trade deal link was also from a disgusted insider.
When governments do appalling things, very often somebody manages to blow the whistle.
On the core subject here: By necessity, a
pandemic requires a cooperative international response. Only one country has refused to do so: The US. In their supreme
arrogance, our ruling class lost track the fact that the US needs the rest of the world, not the other way way around.
Study identifies six different "types" of COVID-19
A new study of COVID-19 , based on
data from a symptom tracker app, determined that there are six distinct "types" of the disease involving different clusters of symptoms.
The discovery could potentially open new possibilities for how doctors can better treat individual patients and predict what level
of hospital care they would need.
Researchers from
King's College London
studied data from approximately 1,600 U.K. and U.S. patients who regularly logged their symptoms in the COVID Symptom Tracker App
in March and April.
Typically, doctors will look for
key symptoms
such as cough, fever and
loss
of the sense of smell to detect COVID-19. The study, which has not been peer-reviewed, says the six different "types" of COVID-19
can vary by severity and come with their own set of symptoms.
"I think it's very, very interesting," Dr. Bob Lahita, who is not affiliated with the study, told CBSN anchors Vladimir Duthiers
and Anne-Marie Green. "Among the patients I see, those who recovered, many of them present different ways: some people with fever
and some without fever, and some with
nausea and vomiting, some people with diarrhea , etc."
The six clusters of symptoms outlined in the study are:
Flu-like with no fever: Headache, loss of smell, muscle pains, cough, sore throat, chest pain, no fever.
Flu-like with fever: Headache, loss of smell, cough, sore throat, hoarseness, fever, loss of appetite.
Gastrointestinal: Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, diarrhea, sore throat, chest pain, no cough.
Severe level one, fatigue: Headache, loss of smell, cough, fever, hoarseness, chest pain, fatigue.
Severe level two, confusion: Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest
pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain.
Severe level three, abdominal and respiratory: Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness,
sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain, shortness of breath, diarrhea, abdominal pain.
The first level, "flu-like with no fever," is associated with headaches, loss of smell, muscle pains, cough, sore throat and chest
pain. Patients at this level have a 1.5% chance of needing breathing support such as oxygen or a ventilator.
The second type, "flu-like with fever," includes symptoms like loss of appetite, headache, loss of smell, cough, sore throat,
hoarseness and fever. Researchers say about 4.4% of patients at this level needed breathing support.
Patients with the third type, simply described as "gastrointestinal," do not have a cough as part of their illness. Instead, they
experience headache, diarrhea, loss of smell, loss of appetite, sore throat and chest pain, and about 3.3% needed breathing support.
Lahita referred to the following three clusters of COVID-19 as the "really severe types."
In type four, or "severe level one," patients experience fatigue along with headache, loss of smell, cough, fever, hoarseness
and chest pain. Patients at this level needed breathing support at a rate of 8.6%.
Type five, "severe level two," includes the symptoms of type four along with loss of appetite, sore throat and muscle pain, and
is mainly distinguished by
confusion
.
"That means you don't know where you are or where you live, whether you are in or out of the hospital, who your relatives are,"
Lahita explained. "That is very scary." Almost 10% of patients at that level need breathing support.
The most severe type of COVID-19 is referred to as "severe level three, abdominal and respiratory," and has all the above symptoms
along with abdominal pain, shortness of breath and diarrhea. Nearly 20% of these patients need breathing support.
"Those are the severe level threes who wind up on a ventilator, and then it is touch-and-go as to whether they survive the
infection entirely," Lahita said.
The U.K. researchers also found that only 16% of patients with type one COVID-19 required hospitalization, compared with nearly
half of the patients with type six.
Patients in the severe clusters also tended to be older or with pre-existing conditions and weakened immune systems, compared
to those in the first three.
Scientists hope the discovery, once further studied, could help predict what types of care patients with COVID-19 might need,
and give doctors the ability to predict which patients would fall into which category.
"I'm very happy that these six types have been identified and can give us an idea of a prognosis going forward for patients who
are afflicted with this virus," Lahita said.
More talk about T-cells and B-cells (per Volchkov) Australia
T-cell and B-cell research
To recap: Volchkov, a Russian geneticist/medical researcher, was quoted in a John Helmer
article that he believes the true COVID-19/nCOV/SARS-2 immunity comes from T-cell and B-cell
activity. His view is based upon multiple European studies employing a very expensive
T-cell/B-cell test called ELISPOT - and is that the actual nCOV infection rate is likely far
higher than spot PCR or antibody tests can ever detect. In particular, if 20% of people
tested by PCR or antibody tests show exposure, the likely actual exposure rate is 3 times
higher (60% vs. 20%).
This has huge ramifications if true: it means places with high nCOV death rates have likely
already achieved herd immunity levels.
One thing is true: death rates in every single nation and region with a high nCOV
death/million count have fallen dramatically.
People are still dying, but they are dying at a far lower CFR/IFR rate.
IF, and I mean *IF*, this is true, this means the lockdown strategies actually did very
little to "contain" the outbreak.
This is why looking at the historical behavior in different US states is so important.
California locked down early, but the nCOV mortality rates (both absolute and relative) have
basically been flat from April until now.
"... This boosts the hypothesis that normal speaking and breathing, not just coughing and sneezing, are responsible for spreading COVID-19 -- and that infectious doses of the virus can travel distances far greater than the six feet (two meters) urged by social distancing guidelines. ..."
"... The paper was posted to the medrxiv.org website, where most cutting-edge research during the pandemic has first been made public. ..."
"... The team managed to collect microdroplets as small as one micron in diameter. They then placed these samples into a culture to make them grow, finding that three of the 18 samples tested were able to replicate. For Santarpia, this represents proof that microdroplets, which also travel much greater distances than big droplets, are capable of infecting people. "It is replicated in cell culture and therefore infectious," he said. ..."
Scientists have known for several months the new coronavirus can become suspended in
microdroplets expelled by patients when they speak and breathe, but until now there was no
proof that these tiny particles are infectious.
A new study by scientists at the University of Nebraska that was uploaded to a medical
preprint site this week has shown for the first time that SARS-CoV-2 taken from microdroplets,
defined as under five microns, can replicate in lab conditions.
This boosts the hypothesis that normal speaking and breathing, not just coughing and
sneezing, are responsible for spreading COVID-19 -- and that infectious doses of the virus can
travel distances far greater than the six feet (two meters) urged by social distancing
guidelines.
The results are still considered preliminary and have not yet appeared in a peer-reviewed
journal, which would lend more credibility to the methods devised by the scientists.
The paper was posted to the medrxiv.org website, where most cutting-edge research during the
pandemic has first been made public.
The same team wrote a paper in March showing that the virus remains airborne in the rooms of
hospitalized COVID-19 patients, and this study will soon be published in a journal, according
to the lead author.
"It is actually fairly difficult" to collect the samples, Joshua Santarpia, an associate
professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center told AFP.
The team used a device the size of a cell phone for the purpose, but "the concentrations are
typically very low, your chances of recovering material are small."
The scientists took air samples from five rooms of bedridden patients, at a height of about
a foot (30 centimeters) over the foot of their beds.
The patients were talking, which produces microdroplets that become suspended in the air for
several hours in what is referred to as an "aerosol," and some were coughing.
The team managed to collect microdroplets as small as one micron in diameter. They then placed these samples into a culture to make them grow, finding that three of the
18 samples tested were able to replicate. For Santarpia, this represents proof that microdroplets, which also travel much greater
distances than big droplets, are capable of infecting people. "It is replicated in cell culture and therefore infectious," he said.
Why we wear masks
The potential for microdroplet transmission of the coronavirus was at one stage thought to
be improbable by health authorities across the world. Later, scientists began to change their mind and acknowledge it may be a possibility, which
is the rationale for universal masking.
The World Health Organization was among the last to shift its position, doing so on July
7.
"I feel like the debate has become more political than scientific," said Santarpia. "I think most scientists that work on infectious diseases agree that there's likely an
airborne component, though we may quibble over how large."
Linsey Marr, a professor at Virginia Tech who is a leading expert on aerial transmission of
viruses and wasn't involved in the study, said it was rare to obtain measurements of the amount
of virus present in air.
"Based on what we know about other diseases and what we know so far about SARS-CoV-2, I
think we can assume that if the virus is 'infectious in aerosols,' then we can become infected
by breathing them in," she told AFP.
Last week, we shared news of what Russia's scientific community had touted as a major
breakthrough in the development of a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2: A vaccine trial at Moscow's
Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University had yielded the first successful human trials.
The American business press slavishly parrots every Moderna press release as the company
regurgitates its Phase 1 trial results, despite the fact that the politically-connected biotech
company's stage 3 clinical trials won't begin until later this month. Meanwhile, its CEO
Stephane Bancel and other executives have cashed in on their Moderna shares,
prompting SEC chief Jay Clayton to sheepishly caution against credibility-destroying insider
selling.
Despite all of this, we didn't hear a peep out of the western press about
the Sechenov trial's accomplishments . However, a few days later, with anxieties about
Russia-backed electoral interference intensifying and 'national polls' hinting at a Biden
landslide,
the British press reported on a new 'policy paper' accusing those pesky Ruskies of trying
to steal British research involving COVID-19 vaccines. Intel shared by Canada and the US
purportedly supported this conclusion, though Russia has vehemently denied the accusations.
But that's not all: Around the same time, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab accused Russia of
trying to meddle in the UK's December election (which returned the Tories to power and ended
the reign of opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn).
Were these reports about Russia's vaccine-trial successes merely a smokescreen? The British
might see it that way, but on Monday, US-based Bloomberg News published an interesting report
claiming that certain Russian VIPs had been administered experimental doses of a vaccine
prototype as early as April. Reportedly developed by Moscow's Gamaleya Institute and financed
by the state-run Russian Direct Investment Fund, this Russian vaccine candidate is a so-called
"viral vector vaccine" based on human adenovirus - a common cold virus fused with the spike
protein of SARS CoV-2 to stimulate a human immune response.
It's similar to a vaccine being developed by China's CanSino Biologics, according to
Bloomberg.
Scores of members of Russia's business and political elite have been given early access to
an experimental vaccine against Covid-19, according to people familiar with the effort, as
the country races to be among the first to develop an inoculation.
Top executives at companies including aluminum giant United Co. Rusal, as well as
billionaire tycoons and government officials began getting shots developed by the state-run
Gamaleya Institute in Moscow as early as April, the people said. They declined to be
identified as the information isn't public.
The Gamaleya vaccine, financed by the state-run Russian Direct Investment Fund and backed
by the military, last week completed a phase 1 trial involving Russian military personnel.
The institute hasn't published results for the study, which involved about 40 people, but has
begun the next stage of trials with a larger group.
Gamaleya's press office couldn't be reached by phone Sunday. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry
Peskov didn't respond to a text message asking whether President Vladimir Putin or others in
his administration have had the shots. A government spokesman couldn't immediately
comment.
Wait... so the Russians hacked the British vaccine research, traveled back in time, then
decided to test their vaccine prototype on some of the most powerful people in Russia's (highly
unequal) society? Well, they had to first travel to the future to steal the time-travel
technology from the Americans (bear with us...we're still piecing it all together).
The program under which members of Russia's business and political elite have been given
the chance to volunteer for doses of the experimental vaccine is legal but kept under wraps
to avoid a crush of potential participants, according to a researcher familiar with the
effort. He said several hundred people have been involved. Bloomberg confirmed dozens who
have had the shots but none would allow their names to be published.
It's not clear how participants are selected and they aren't part of the official studies,
though they are monitored and their results logged by the institute. Patients usually get the
shots - two are needed to produce an immune response Gamaleya says will last for about two
years - at a Moscow clinic connected to the institute. Participants aren't charged a fee and
sign releases that they know the risks involved.
Dmitriev of the RDIF said he and his family had taken the shots and noted that a
significant number of other volunteers have also been given the opportunity. He declined to
provide further details. The Gamaleya Institute said it vaccinated its director, as well as
the team working on the trial, when it started. In May, state-controlled Sberbank recruited
volunteers among employees to test the institute's vaccine.
O ne top executive who had the vaccine said he experienced no side effects. He said he
decided to risk taking the experimental shots in order to be able to live a normal life and
have business meetings as usual. Other participants have reported fever and muscle aches
after getting the shots.
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Is it so hard to believe that Russia had enough faith in its vaccine prototype that it would
allow certain individuals the choice of receiving an early dose? After all, EU governments are
already buying up millions of doses of Moderna's still-largely-untested vaccine candidate.
Similarly, is it possible that Russian spies were simply monitoring the competition?
Who knows? When it comes to the shadowy world of espionage, the public rarely hears the full
story. Russia's outbreak has slowed in recent weeks as it has been overtaken by India, which
now counts more than 1 million confirmed cases. Meanwhile Russia has confirmed more than
750,000 cases of Covid-19, the fourth-largest total in the world.
pdate (0935ET): A coronavirus vaccine candidate developed by Oxford and AstraZeneca has
shown promise in an early trial which found it to be safe for human consumption while reliably
producing antibodies that are effective at stopping the virus.
In what looked like a coordinated one-two punch, one of the top researchers leading the
Oxford-Astrazeneca trials said in an interview published Monday morning that the research was
making "good progress". Minutes later, the Lancet published the first Phase 1/2 trial results,
which showed that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine caused "robust immune responses" and was
"tolerated" by all study subjects.
That interview was published Monday morning in the US, just minutes before the Lancet
released the results of a Phase 1/2 study of the Oxford-AZ vaccine, the most highly anticipated
COVID-19 news of the day.
There are currently more than 137 vaccine candidates undergoing preclinical development, and
23 in early clinical development, according to WHO. Of these, candidates from Moderna and the
Oxford-AstraZeneca partnership are two of the most closely followed prototypes. Governments
have already started ordering the vaccine from Moderna, even though approval is still months,
perhaps years, away.
According to the Lancet, research has shown that vaccine candidates from Cansino and
Astra-Oxford trial have been making good progress, and while they couldn't say much
conclusively, the Astra-Oxford trial showed no worrisome "adverse effects".
The Phase 1/2 trial, one of the first human studies of the vaccine, showed an appropriate
"immune response". Patients who received 2 doses instead of one saw a stronger response. All
patients who received the vaccine generated the desired immune response.
Oxford's candidate "showed an acceptable safety profile, and homologous boosting increased
antibody responses. These results "support large scale evaluation of this candidate vaccine in
an ongoing phase 3 program." The Oxford-AZ study included 1,077 participants spread across 5
test sites in and around the UK.
In the study, researchers measured the number of antibodies, and the strength of the immune
response, after administering single doses and double doses of the vaccine to various groups of
study subjects, and compared those results with a control group who received another vaccine.
Pain and swelling caused by the injection were easily treated with paracetemol.
There were no serious adverse events related to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. In the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19
group, spike-specific T-cell responses peaked on day 14 (median 856 spot-forming cells per
million peripheral blood mononuclear cells, IQR 493–1802; n=43). Anti-spike IgG
responses rose by day 28 (median 157 ELISA units [EU], 96–317; n=127), and were boosted
following a second dose (639 EU, 360–792; n=10). Neutralising antibody responses
against SARS-CoV-2 were detected in 32 (91%) of 35 participants after a single dose when
measured in MNA80 and in 35 (100%) participants when measured in PRNT50. After a booster
dose, all participants had neutralising activity (nine of nine in MNA80 at day 42 and ten of
ten in Marburg VN on day 56). Neutralising antibody responses correlated strongly with
antibody levels measured by ELISA (R²=0·67 by Marburg VN; p<0·001).
The result: The vaccine candidate has been deemed safe enough to move on to 'Phase 3', which
would involve large-scale human trials.
ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 showed an acceptable safety profile, and homologous boosting increased
antibody responses. These results, together with the induction of both humoral and cellular
immune responses, support largescale evaluation of this candidate vaccine in an ongoing phase
3 programme.
He correctly points out the confusion created by certain "experts":
"For anyone who has forgotten, Fauci told 60 Minutes that:
[t]here's no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you're in the middle of an
outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little better and it might even block a
droplet, but it's not providing the perfect protection that people think it is. And often
there are unintended consequences – people keep fiddling with the mask and they keep
touching their face."
That was how things stood when the epidemic was new and all stops were out. And now?"
The author of the article also notes that the mask doesn't prevent you from being
infected, but of course the point is that it reduces the probability of being infected.
But he does make an astute point:
"Recently I had the poor judgment to turn on National Public Radio for about an hour,
under the impression that I was going to learn something about the day's news.
...
No – for a solid hour, I heard the following: that COVID19 – in reality, at most,
a moderately serious flu virus – is the worst medical threat the United States has ever
faced.
...
But the real theme of the hour was masks, masks, masks: how to make them, how to wear them,
their different types, who doesn't seem to have enough of them, and why muffling our faces
(even though no such thing was ever demanded of us during dozens of past viral outbreaks) is
absolutely, positively good for us all."
Needless to say the author did not approve of us "muzzling" ourselves, but the MSM, like
commenters here, and perhaps b do seem obsessed with the mask.
IMO, the mask is an important component in preventing more people from becoming infected,
but does not prevent all people from being infected. So, what about the people who do become
infected? its too late for the mask to help them. How do we mitigate the effects of the
disease?
For the Big Pharma mafia and its political apparatchiks in the West, its expensive
patented drugs like Remdesivir, as opposed to inexpensive out of patent chloroquine, among
others, as well as the Holy Grail for Big Pharma - a highly profitable vaccine, yet to come.
A list of drugs mostly based on CDC sourcing. The CDC, like the WHO being seriously
compromised by its conections to Big Pharma: https://www.drugs.com/condition/covid-19.html
Unfortunately, politcally motivated scientific fraud as published in the retracted Lancet
article, among others, prevents us from having an intelligent discussion of this even on Moon
of Allabama.
A final area for discussion, as important or more important than the above, is how to
approach impending "lockdowns" of the economies in the future. A potential greater tragedy
than the virus itself may be the destruction wrought on the unemployed and small businesses
that has already occurred, but promises to continue should a second wave of the virus appaer
this fall.
Admittedly, such discussions seem hopeless. We can individually control whether we wear a
mask or not, but how do we mitigate the effects of those who have already contracted the
disease, and those whose livelihood is threatened or destroyed by the "lockdowns" in response
to the disease?
I would like to see these last two areas more seriously investigated on Moon of
Alabama.
By Dr. Sherri Tenpenny – May 21, 2020 – an osteopathic medical doctor,
board-certified in three specialties. She is the founder of Tenpenny Integrative Medical Center, a medical clinic located
near Cleveland, Ohio. Her company, Courses4Mastery.com provides online education and
training regarding all aspects of vaccines and vaccination.
_____________________________
In 1965, scientists identified the first human coronavirus; it was associated with the
common cold. The Coronavirus family, named for their crown-like appearance, currently includes
36 viruses.
Within that group, there are 4 common viruses that have been causing infection in humans for
more than sixty years. In addition, three pandemic coronaviruses that can infect humans: SARS,
MERS, and now, SARS-CoV-2.
As the news of deaths in China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran began to saturate every form of
media 24/7, we became familiar with a new term: COVID-19. To be clear, the name of the newly
identified coronavirus is SARS-CoV-2, short for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Coronavirus-2. This virus is associated with fever, cough, chest pain, and shortness of breath,
the complex of symptoms that form the diagnosis of COVID-19.
The Trump administration declared a public health emergency on January 31, 2020, then on
February 2 placed a ban on the entry of most travelers who had recently been in China. On
February 4, Alex Azar, the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) issued a declaration of
public health emergency and activated the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act,
otherwise known as the PREP
Act. This nefarious legislation provides complete protection of manufacturers from
liability for all products, technologies, biologics, or any vaccine developed as a medical
countermeasure against COVID-19. For those nervously waiting for the vaccine to become
available, be sure to understand the PREP Act
before rushing to the get in line.
Calls for testing – to see if a person is or isn't infected – began soon after
the emergency was declared, but performing those tests was initially slow due to an inadequate
number of test kits. As the kits became available, those
developed by the CDC had a defect: The reagents reacted to the
negative control sample , making the test inaccurate and the kits unusable.
In various
countries, thousands of test kits purchased from China were found to be contaminated with
the SARS-CoV-2 viruses. No one really knows how that happened, but theories spread like
wildfire. Could the test kit infect the person being tested? Or, did it mean the test would
return a false-positive result, driving up the numbers of those said to be infected so those in
power could implement stronger lockdowns and accelerate the hockey-stick unemployment rates?
Neither of those questions has been adequately answered.
Mandatory Testing of what?
Authorities claim that testing is important for public health officials to assess if their
mitigation efforts – "shelter in place" and "social distancing" and "wearing a mask"
– are making a difference to "flatten the curve." Officials also claim that testing is
necessary to know how many persons are infected within a community and to understand the nature
of how coronaviruses spread.
Are these reasons sufficient to give up our health freedom and our personal rights, being
tested and shamed in public?
Despite the challenges with test kits, testing began. By the end of March 2020, more than 1
million people had been tested across the US. By May 9, the number tested had grown to over
8.7M. Testing methods include a swab of the
nasal passages or by inserting a long, uncomfortable swab through the nose to scrape the back of the
throat. Specimens have also been obtained bronchoalveolar lavage, from
sputum , and from stool
specimens.
The call for mandatory testing has been gathering steam and becoming ever more onerous. In
Washington state, Governor Inslee
has declared:
Individuals that refuse to cooperate with contact tracers and/or refuse testing, those
individuals will not be allowed to leave their homes to purchase basic necessities such as
groceries and/or prescriptions. Those persons will need to make arrangements through friends,
family, or state provided 'family support' personnel .
But what do the results really mean?
Who Should Be Tested
On May 8, 2020, the CDC has listed specific priorities
for when testing should be done. As of May 16, more than 11-million samples have been
collected and more than 3700 specimens have not yet been evaluated.
High Priority
Hospitalized patients with symptoms
Healthcare facility workers, workers in living settings, and first responders with
symptoms
Residents in long-term care facilities or other congregate living settings, including
prisons and shelters, with symptoms
Priority
Persons with symptoms of potential COVID-19 infection, including fever, cough, shortness
of breath, chills, muscle pain, new loss of taste or smell, vomiting or diarrhea, and/or sore
throat
Persons without symptoms who are prioritized by health departments or clinicians
, for any reason, including but not limited to public health monitoring, sentinel
surveillance, or screening of asymptomatic individuals according to state and local
plans.
Read that last priority again: That means virtually everyone can be required to get a
test.
Is that a violation of your personal rights? And, if you submit to testing, what does a
"positive test" actually mean?
Types of Testing: RT-PCR
PCR, short for polymerase chain reaction , is a highly specific laboratory technique. The
key to understanding
PCR testing is that PCR can identify an individual specific virus within a viral
family.
However, a PCR test can only be used to identify DNA viruses; the SARS-CoV2 virus is an RNA
virus. Therefore, multiple steps must be taken to "magnify" the amount of genetic material in
the specimen. Researchers used a method called RT-PCR, reverse transcription-polymerase chain
reaction, to specifically identify the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It's a complicated process. To read
more about it, go
here and here.
If a nasal or a blood sample contains a tiny snip of RNA from the SARS-CoV-2 virus, RT-PCR
can identify it, leading to a high probability that the person has been exposed to the
SARS-CoV-2 virus.
However – and this is important – a positive RT-PCR test result does not
necessarily indicate a full virus is present. The virus must be fully intact to be
transmitted and cause illness.
RT-PCR Testing: The Importance of Timing
Even if a person has had all the symptoms associated with a coronavirus infection or has
been closely exposed to persons who have been diagnosed with COVID-19, the probability of a
RT-PCR test being positive decreases with the number of days past the onset of symptoms.
For a nasal swab, the percentage chance of a positive test declines from about 94% on day
0 to about 67% by day 10. By day 31, there is only a 2% chance of a positive result.
For a throat swab , the percentage chance of a positive test declines from about 88% on
day 0 to about 47% by day 10. By day 31, there is only a 1% chance of a positive result.
In other words, the longer the time frame between the onset of symptoms and the time a
person is tested, the more likely the test will be negative.
Repeat testing of persons who have a negative test may (eventually) confirm the presence of
viral RNA, but this is impractical. Additionally, repeated testing of the same person can lead
to even more confusing results: The test may go from negative, to positive, then back to
negative again as the immune system clears out the coronavirus infection and moves to
recovery.
And what makes this testing even more confusing is that the
FDA admits that "The detection of viral RNA by RT-PCR does not necessarily equate with an
infectious virus."
Let's break that down:
You've had all the symptoms of COVID19, but your RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 is
negative.
Does that mean you're "good to go" – you can go to work, go to school or you can
travel? OR
Does that mean your influenza-like illness was caused by some other pathogen, possibly
one of the four coronaviruses that have been in circulation for 60 years? OR
Does that mean the result is a false-negative and you still have the infection, but it
isn't detectable by current tests? OR
Does that mean it was a sample was inadequately taken due to the faulty technique by the
technician? OR
Does that mean you have not been exposed, and you are susceptible to contracting the
infection, and you need to stay in quarantine?
So, what does a "positive" test actually mean? And that's the problem:
No one knows for sure.
Another Type of Testing: Antibodies
According to the nonprofit Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics
(FIND) , more than 200 serologic blood tests, to test for antibodies, are either now
available or in development.
There are two primary types of antibodies that are assessed for nearly any type of
infection: IgM and IgG. While several new testing devices are being touted as a home test, they
are not the same as a home pregnancy test or a glucometer to you're your blood sugar. The blood
spot or saliva specimen can be collected at home, must it must then be sent to a laboratory for
analysis. It can take a few days – or longer – to get the results. With so many
tests in the pipeline, the ability to test at home will be changing over time.
The first antibody to rise is IgM. It rises quickly after the onset of the infection and is
usually a sign of an acute, or current, infection. The IgM levels diminish quickly as the
infection resolves. The
FDA admits they do not know how long the IgM remains present for SARS-CoV-2 as the
infection is being cleared.
The interpretation of an IgG antibody is more difficult. This antibody is an indicator of a
past infection. The test is often not specific enough to determine if the past infection was
caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus or one of the four common coronaviruses that cause
influenza-like illness.
Because serology testing can yield a negative test result even if the patient is actively
infected (e.g., the body has not yet developed in response to the virus) or maybe falsely
positive (e.g., if the antibody indicates a past infection by a different coronavirus), this
type of testing should not be used to diagnose an acute or active COVID-19 infection.
Similarly, the CDC says the
following regarding antibody testing:
If you test positive:
A positive test result shows you have antibodies as a result of an infection with
SARS-CoV-2, or possibly a related coronavirus.
It's unclear if those antibodies can provide protection (immunity) against getting
infected again. This means that we do not know at this time if antibodies make you immune
to the virus.
If you have no symptoms, you likely do not have an active infection and no additional
follow-up is needed.
It's possible you might test positive for antibodies and you might not have or have
ever had symptoms of COVID-19. This is known as having an asymptomatic infection [ie you
have a healthy immune system!]
An antibody test cannot tell if you are currently sick with COVID-19.
If you test negative
If you test negative for antibodies, you probably did not have a previous infection.
However, you could have a current infection because antibodies don't show up for 1 to 3
weeks after infection.
Some people may take even longer to develop antibodies, and some people may not
develop antibodies.
An antibody test cannot tell if you are currently sick with COVID-19.
What? Wait!
Doesn't the vaccine industry call the IgG a "protective antibody"?
Isn't this the marker of immunity they assess after you've had an infection with measles
or chickenpox or mumps to determine if you are immune to future infections?
Isn't this the marker of induced immunity they are trying to achieve by administering a
vaccine?
If the FDA does not know if an IgG antibody to SARS-CoV-2 after recovering from the
infection is protective against a future infection, then they certainly don't know if an
antibody caused by a vaccine will prevent infection either.
Doesn't this completely eliminate the theory that antibodies afford protection and
antibodies from vaccines are necessary to keep you from getting sick?
Until we have a vaccine to defeat this dreaded disease, contact tracing in order to
understand the full breadth and depth of the spread of this virus is the only way we will be
able to get out from under this.
H.R.6666 would authorize the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), acting through
the Director of the CDC to award grants to eligible entities to conduct diagnostic testing and
then to trace and monitor the contacts of infected individuals. The contact tracers would be
authorized to test people in their homes and as necessary, quarantine people in place.
Where do they intend to do this testing? Besides mobile units to test people in their homes,
the bill identifies eight specific locations where the testing and contract tracing could
occur: schools, health clinics, universities, churches, and "any other type of entity" the
secretary of HHS wants to use.
The bill would allocate $100 billion in
2020 "and such sums as may be necessary for fiscal year 2021 and any subsequent fiscal year
during which the emergency period continues."
But what are they looking for?
Is your test supposed to be positive – saying you've been exposed and you've
possibly recovered?
Or is your test supposed to be negative , meaning, you are healthy?
Or does a completely negative test – negative RT-PCR test and no IgG antibody mean
you're susceptible to infection and you need to stay in quarantine?
The virus is rapidly mutating, which is rather typical of RNA viruses. In a
study published in April 2020, researchers have discovered that the novel coronavirus has
mutated into at least 30 different genetic variations. If your RT-PCR test is positive, does
this identify exposure to the pandemic virus or exposure to one of the genetic variations? The
same can be said about the vaccines under development: With each mutation, is the vaccine more
likely to be all risk and no benefit when it reaches the market?
What You Can Do
Across the nation, police are being told to not apprehend criminals but instead, to arrest
parents at playgrounds, to arrest lone surfers on public beaches, to fine ministers and
congregation members sitting in their cars listening to a service on the radio, and to restrict
movement by creating one-way sidewalks.
People have had enough. They are beginning to see the huge scam that has been perpetrated on
the entire world over a viral infection with a global death rate of
1.4% (meaning, 1.4% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 have a fatal outcome, while 98.6%
recover). This is far fewer deaths than a severe flu season.
We're already starting to see the thrust to take our power back:
In Virginia, people went to the beaches en mass,
ignoring social distancing and the orders of the Governor to stay home.
The central California city of Atwater has declared itself a "sanctuary
city," allowing business owners and churches to open, openly defying Democratic
California
Gov. Gavin Newsom's coronavirus-related stay-at-home order.
The truth about wearing
masks is starting to come out and people are voting with their feet. Retired
neurosurgeon, Dr. Russell Blaylock, warns that not only do face masks fail to protect healthy
people from contracting an illness, but they create serious health risks to the wearer.
While they shut us down and held us hostage in our homes, they changed our society, our
lives, our world.
I am not willing to accept this is the "new normal."
I won't submit to testing.
I will refuse mandatory vaccination.
I will stop wearing a mask.
I will not be afraid of standing next to a friend or family member and will not obey the
concept of "social distancing."
I will understand that an asymptomatic carrier is a normal, healthy person and I will not
buy into the fear that I might "catch something" from a normal, healthy person.
It's time for Americans to resist with non-violent civil disobedience. Be brave. Be bold.
Put on the full armor of God, as found in Ephesians
6:10-20 in the Bible, to stand against the world rulers of this present darkness. With God
on our side, all things are possible.
*
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he American profit-based healthcare system impacts us in more ways than just our gargantuan
bill at the excretion end of an emergency room visit. Right now, our lovable idiotic inhumane
healthcare system is acting as a hurdle to the manufacture and procurement of the right drugs
to treat Covid-19.
One of the drugs currently trumpeted as our savior is
Remdesivir . Despite sounding like the name of a Hobbit in Middle Earth, some reports from
the corporate media make it sound like the drug will thrust us face-first into a fresh world of
happiness -- water parks and restaurants and random no-holds-barred make-outs with strangers. A
world where when someone sneezes, we don't dive under our desk with an adult diaper strapped on
our face as a makeshift mask.
There's only one problem. The big pharma company that owns Remdesivir, Gilead, has already
made clear their plans to profiteer from this pandemic. As TheLA
Timesput
it –
Drugmaker Gillead says it's doing you a favor by setting the price for its pending COVID-19
treatment, Remdesivir, at more than $2,000 for government agencies and over $3,000 for private
insurers."
How does the CEO of Gilead, Daniel O'Day, justify this disgusting price point? He claims
they're under-pricing Remdesivir.
He said , "In normal circumstances, we would price a medicine according to the value it
provides. Earlier hospital discharge would result in hospital savings of approximately $12,000
per patient."
The value it provides?? So, if a doctor saves someone's life with heart surgery, then that
guy owes the doctor the entire worth of the rest of his life? Millions of dollars? Maybe he
should become the surgeon's butler or wet nurse.
Saying something should cost even close to the value it provides ranks up there as one of
the stupidest arguments ever spoken. (Second only to when the people at Mountain Dew argued
that human beings would love a Doritos-flavored soft drink named "Dewitos.")
So, for a dude taking Viagra who can now get it up, he owes the makers of Viagra – what?
– sex with his wife? Or does he just owe them 300 orgasms? Or perhaps he owes them the
child he's able to produce while taking the pills. ("Dear Cialis Folks, I'm emailing to ask for
a mailing address to send you my 2-year-old, Robbie. Fair is fair. I want to give you the value
of your goods. Just be careful – he bites a lot. And he's already totally racist. Not
sure how he picked that up so young.")
But there's another catch to Gilead's price-gouging shenanigans. They didn't create
Remdesivir. We did. You and me.
Public Citizen revealed that
Gilead raked in over $70 million from taxpayers. Plus, federal scientists ran the team that
found out Remdesivir also worked against Coronaviruses. And, " The National
Institutes of Health ran the trial that led to Remdesivir's emergency use authorization,
and public funding is supporting clinical trials around the world today."
You and I paid for the creation and research behind Remdesivir. There is absolutely no
reason we should fill the pockets of Gilead's preposterously rich CEO and its board. Most
countries realize this. Most countries don't behave this way. Most countries have some tiny
modicum of respect for the lives of their citizens. America is not most countries.
Back to the
LA Times , "Nearly all other developed countries limit how much pharmaceutical
companies can charge for prescription meds. The U.S. doesn't operate like that. We allow drug
companies to charge as much as they please "
Perhaps prescription meds that cost the same as landing a man on Mars (in a pair of Jimmy
Choo heels) are the reason 42
percent of new cancer patients have their entire life savings wiped out within two years.
The average amount drained from a patient is nearly $100,000, and the entire medical costs for
U.S. cancer patients per year is $80
billion . Why ever change a system that piles such bulbous mountains of cash in the vaults
of those running the show?
Apparently most other national governments don't want to ruin the lives of every cancer
survivor. As to why not, one can only guess.
But this story gets crazier. Not only is Remdesivir way over-priced, we're not even sure it
does much. Some studies show it achieves almost nothing. Meanwhile, according to theIntercept
–
[A]nother Covid-19 treatment has quietly been shown to be more effective. A three-drug
regimen offered a greater reduction in the time it took patients to recover than Remdesivir
did. People who took the combination of interferon beta-1b, lopinavir-ritonavir, and ribavirin
got better in seven days as opposed to 12 days for those who didn't take it."
However, I have yet to hear of a mad rush to hoard those drugs. Why is that? Probably
because those drugs don't have colossal marketing campaigns that would make Coca-Cola blush. In
fact there appears to be no marketing campaign whatsoever for the more effective drugs. To
figure out why that is, one simply must follow the money.
[E]ach of the
three drugs in the new combination is generic, or no longer under patent, which means that
no company stands to profit significantly from its use."
Must cut-throat late-stage capitalism always be so predictable?
Only the ridiculously profitable drugs are worth hyping. Only the money makers deserve
80,000 commercials telling every consumer to irrationally demand them. The cheap drugs that
simply – save lives – those are garbage. What's the point of saving a life if you
can't make a bundle from it? I've always said, "A life saved without extracting a shitload of
money from it, is a life lost."
I don't know that this last part needs saying, but I'm going to do it anyway. When a society
has a system built on profit, run by sociopaths, based on the manipulation of lizard-brain
impulses, then it will always end up in a race to the bottom. With unfettered capitalism we
inevitably find ourselves with the worst drugs, priced at the highest amounts, hoarded by those
who need them the least.
Unless we're talking about recreational illegal drugs. Those are cheaper than ever.
If you feel this column is important, please share it.
Feature photo | A lab technician works at the Eva Pharma facility in Cairo, Egypt, July 12,
2020, where Remdesivir is being produced. Nariman El-Mofty | AP
Lee Camp is the host of the hit comedy news show "Redacted Tonight." His new book "Bullet
Points and Punch Lines" is available at LeeCampBook.com and his standup comedy special can be streamed
for free at LeeCampAmerican.com
.
This article was published with special permission from the author. It originally
appeared at Consortium News .
Stories published in our Daily Digests section are chosen based on the interest of our
readers. They are republished from a number of sources, and are not produced by MintPress News.
The views expressed in these articles are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect
MintPress News editorial policy.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect
MintPress News editorial policy.
Vaccines Vaccines give broad parts of the population some level of immunity and are
considered crucial to ending the pandemic. They also take longer to develop, in part because
they must be proven to be extremely safe since they're given to healthy people. While
some researchers say a vaccine could be ready by the end of the year, others say it could
take far longer.
COMPANY Oxford University, AstraZeneca Plc NAME ChAdOx1 nCov-19 PROGRESS Phase 3
The vaccine is made from a harmless virus that's been altered to produce the surface spike
protein from SARS-CoV-2.
LATEST NEWS With human trials underway, the U.S. government has
pledged as much as $1.2 billion, and the company plans to produce as many as
30 million doses available in the U.K. by September. Other groups are moving to line up
access elsewhere. COMPANY Moderna Inc. NAME mRNA-1273 RECENTLY UPDATED Phase 2
Moderna's mRNA-1273 uses messenger RNA to prompt the body to make a key protein from the
virus, creating an immune response.
LATEST NEWS Moderna's vaccine produced antibodies to the
coronavirus in all patients tested in an initial safety trial. The company expects a phase 3
trial to begin July 27. COMPANY CanSino Biologics Inc. NAME Ad5-nCoV PROGRESS Phase 2
CanSino's vaccine was developed alongside China's military and is genetically engineered
with a replication-defective mutant virus.
LATEST NEWS CanSino's vaccine has received a
special authorization to be used by China's military after a study showed it generated an
immune response. President Xi Jinping says the country will make
any vaccine available as a global public good. COMPANY BioNTech SE, Pfizer Inc. NAME
multiple candidates PROGRESS Phase 2
BioNTech's BNT162 is another messenger RNA vaccine platform that the German company is
developing with Pfizer. In China, BioNTech is co-developing vaccines with Shanghai Fosun
Pharmaceutical Group.
LATEST NEWS One of the companies' vaccine candidates has shown
promising antibody responses. Further testing in up to 30,000 people may start as early as
July. COMPANY Sinovac Biotech Ltd NAME No name yet PROGRESS Phase 3
The vaccine uses inactivated virus, which can help the body develop antibodies to the
pathogen without risking infection.
LATEST NEWS Sinovac has begun human trials in China. The
company says its vaccine candidate can neutralize different strains of the virus. COMPANY China
National Biotec Group Co., Beijing Institute of Biological Products NAME No name yet PROGRESS
Phase 3
The vaccine uses inactivated virus, which can help the body develop antibodies to the
pathogen without risking infection.
LATEST NEWS With phase 2 trials complete, a vaccine
could be available as soon as the end of this year, according to an official report in May.
COMPANY Novavax Inc. NAME NVX-CoV2373 RECENTLY UPDATED Phase 2
Novavax's vaccine is meant to create antibodies that block a protein "spike" that the virus
uses to infect its host.
LATEST NEWS Novavax has received $1.6 billion from the U.S.
government as it prepares for a final-stage study as early as this fall. COMPANY Johnson &
Johnson NAME No name yet PROGRESS Preclinical
J&J is working on an unnamed adenovirus-based vaccine as well as two backups.
LATEST
NEWS J&J accelerated plans for human studies and aims to make up to
1 billion doses by the end of 2021 . J&J has said its vaccine could be ready for
emergency use by January, and it has received $456 million from the U.S. COMPANY Sanofi,
GlaxoSmithKline Plc NAME No name yet PROGRESS Preclinical
Sanofi is working on a vaccine using technology already employed in one of its flu vaccines,
which could speed development and production.
LATEST NEWS France's Sanofi has partnered with
the U.K.'s Glaxo on a project backed by U.S. funding. The companies plan to start human trials
in the second half of this year. Sanofi is also developing an mRNA vaccine with Translate Bio.
COMPANY Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. NAME INO-4800 RECENTLY UPDATED Phase 1
Inovio's experimental vaccine uses DNA to activate a patient's immune system.
LATEST NEWS
Inovio says an early trial showed
positive immune responses but investors complained about a lack of detail. COMPANY Merck
& Co. NAME No names yet PROGRESS Preclinical
Merck's two vaccine candidates employ exisiting technology behind its Ebola virus shot and a
measles virus vector platform discovered by the Pasteur Institute, respectively.
LATEST NEWS
Merck
has partnered with AIDS researchers to develop a vaccine using technology already employed
in its Ebola virus shot. The company has also agreed to buy biotech Themis, gaining a vaccine
candidate that uses an existing measles virus vector platform. COMPANY Imperial College London
NAME No name yet PROGRESS Phase 1
When injected, the RNA vaccine candidate delivers genetic instructions to muscle cells to
make the "spike" protein on the surface of the coronavirus.
LATEST NEWS Researchers have
received U.K. funding and have begun human trials.
I am a Biomedical Scientist with expertise in this area. Made antibodies and PCR tests for
a living for 35 years, I did other stuff to but I did make some World Class Antibodies and
other discoveries. My gut feeling is that all of these tests are tremendously flawed and not
reliable in any way to make any kind of decision for either the patient or society. It is
almost impossible to create a truly specific test and and it would take a considerable amount
of time and effort to get one that could be performed on large numbers of samples. At least a
year or more even with a Herculean effort. So the bottom line is it is all Bull Shit at best.
Garbage in Garbage out is what you have. Would you base anything in your life on information
that you know is inaccurate? You would have to be intoxicated, greedy or needing sex badly to
go to that place. The Scum of humanity has pushed a large number of people to that state. I
think the outcome is going to be very unpleasant for many.
A new Motherboard article interviews William, a ventilator refurbisher who's repaired at
least 70 broken ventilators that he's bought on eBay and from other secondhand websites, then
sold to U.S. hospitals and governments to help handle a spike in COVID-19 patients.
He's part of a grey-market supply chain that's "essentially identical to one used by farmers
to repair John Deere tractors without the company's authorization and has emerged because of
the same
need to fix a device without a manufacturer's permission ..." The issue is that, like so
many other electronics, medical equipment, including ventilators, increasingly has software
that prevents "unauthorized" people from repairing or refurbishing broken devices, and
Medtronic will not help him fix them... Faced with a global pandemic, hospitals, biomedical
technicians, right to repair activists, and refurbishers like William say that medical device
manufacturers are profiteering by putting up artificial barriers to repair that drive up the
cost of medical care in the United States and puts patient lives in danger. They describe
difficulty getting parts and software, delays in getting service from "authorized" technicians,
and a general sense of frustration as few manufacturers appear ready to loosen their repair
restrictions during the COVID-19 crisis.
For the past decade, medical device manufacturers have refused to sell replacement parts
and software to hospitals and repair professionals unless they pay thousands of dollars
annually to become "authorized" to work on machines. The medical device industry has
lobbied against legislation that would make it easier to repair their machines,
refused to release repair manuals , and
used copyright law to threaten those who have made repair manuals available to the public.
The technicians who are unable to gain access to repair parts, manuals, and software are not
random people who are deciding on a whim to try to fix complex medical equipment that is going
to be used on sick patients. Hospitals and trained professionals are regularly unable to fix
the equipment that they own unless they pay for expensive service contracts or annual trainings
from manufacturers.
While hospitals deal with a resurgent coronavirus that is overtaxing intensive care units
across the country, their biomedical technicians are wasting time on the phone and in
Kafkaesque email exchanges with medical device manufacturers, pleading for spare parts,
passwords to unlock diagnostic modes, or ventilator repair manuals.
The article notes that newer medical devices even have "more advanced anti-repair technologies
built into them. Newer ventilators connect to proprietary servers owned by manufacturers to
verify that the person accessing it is authorized by the company to do so."
I've been speaking with my friends who include medical doctors and other highly educated
people about the treatments that they would seek if they were diagnosed with Covid 19. Most of
them had no idea what course of treatment they or their families might seek. This conundrum is
in part due to the massive volume of information that is being thrown at us. Much of this
information is deliberately deceptive. I am writing this article to cut through the deception
so that you and your physician can make informed decisions if and when the time comes.
This article has two purposes. First, it's imperative that you understand the great deceit
that Big Pharma, their minions at the FDA, CDC, NIH, the WHO, the MSM, and officials in high
government positions are perpetrating on you, your family, and likely your doctor.
The second purpose is to assure that you are armed with the necessary information to insure
that you receive the best treatment options from your health care provider. Knowledge is
power.
Allow me to repeat, you need to know you are being duped and you need a plan for you and
your family if you become infected with Covid 19. So let's get to it. Let me begin by stating
that I'm not a medical doctor and I m not offering medical advice. I do have a bachelors of
science degree in health, nutrition, and counseling. I've written two NY Times bestselling
books on women's health and fitness and I have been awarded an honorary doctorate degree.
However, you will need to determine your treatment options with your personal physician.
The Great Deception
When it comes to safe, effective and affordable therapies for Covid 19, Big Pharma and its
agents, i.e. Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx and many others, appear to have an agenda to lie to you and
your physician.
The most obvious example is their ongoing effort to ridicule the treatment option of
hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Zinc. We've all watched the harsh criticism that
President Trump received when he promoted this protocol for Covid 19.
So, hydroxychloroquine has been around for almost 70 years as a treatment for malaria,
lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis. The WHO has designated it as a safe and effective medication
akin to taking an aspirin. A survey of 6,000 medical doctors affirmed it as their treatment of
choice for Covid 19.
The treatment works like this. hydroxychloroquine is an ionophore, which means it can
transport material through the cellular wall. Zinc is a mineral that stops the replication of
the Covid 19 virus within the cell. hydroxychloroquine transports Zinc into the cell so that it
can stop the replication of the virus. The Z-pak antibiotic is given to prevent opportunistic
bacterial infections like pneumonia that can occur while your immune system is engaged in
fighting your viral infection. The key to its effectiveness is to start this treatment at the
early onset of Covid 19 so that it has time to work.
How much effort has Big Pharma put into subverting this treatment regimen? In addition to
denouncing its effectiveness, from Dr. Fauci and company, constant MSM hit pieces, the
censoring of medical doctor's articles and videos from the internet, there has also been a
number of "studies" done that were literally sabotaged from the onset.
The VA hospital system reported in March that they had given hydroxychloroquine to a number
of patients. Following their release of information, the MSM ran the story with the headlines,
"VA hospital found that hydoxychloroquine doesn't work and increases the fatality rate of Covid
19." However, if you actually read the study (see
link ) you will find that only the sickest of the cohorts were given the drug. They got the
drug only after they were so far along that it would not have a chance to work and they were
not given zinc. None of these details made the MSM articles.
Another example of the Great Deception came from the British medical journal, The Lancet.
The Lancet reported that a meta study showed that hydroxychloroquine was ineffective. As a
result of this published study, France, Italy and other European countries immediately
prohibited the use of this treatment option. Within a few weeks,
it was found that the study was so badly designed and that the results were literally
fabricated . The Lancet was forced to make a retraction of the "study." Of course in the
meantime the MSM ran the original Lancet story and mislead millions of people and their
physicians.
So what could possibly be the motive behind Big Pharma's Great Deception. Well there's three
answers, money, money and money. That brings up the treatment option that Big Pharma is
promoting, Remdesivir. This lovely experimental drug, costs above $3,000 per regimen, must be
given intravenously in a hospital (five days stay around 15 grand) and
evidence shows it doesn't really work .
The other treatment option is the promised Covid 19 vaccine that they allege is forthcoming.
The NHS in Great Britain has committed to purchase a vaccine for the entire population of Great
Britain. That's a commitment of 80,000,000 doses at an agreed price of around $600 for each
vaccination. That's about $50,000,000,000. (50 Billion) That's a lot of incentive to mislead
people. This week, a US pharmaceutical company received $1.6 billion dollars towards their
efforts to make this vaccine which in the opinion of many experts, won't work on a coronavirus
and will be untested and experimental.
How does Big Pharma have
so much control over the dissemination of this information or should I say propaganda?
Well, the same answer pops up again, money. Big Pharma gave $2 billion dollars during the last
election cycle to US politicians. Big AG, the military/security complex and big oil each gave
only a paltry $1.0 billion dollars to buy the votes of our political leadership.
The MSM counts Big Pharma's advertising revenue at up to 80 percent of their income. The
internet's "masters of the universe" also kowtow to Big Pharma's influence and advertising
dollars by censoring anyone who tries to tell the American people the truth about Covid 19. It
certainly appears that anyone who is complicit in this Great Deception, a deception that is
designed to kill and terrify enough people to ultimately beg for an experimental vaccine, well,
these people would be accessories to murder.
What You Need to Know to Survive
Now, for some good news. There are several therapies that are being offered that appear to
be safe, effective and affordable. However, these therapies must be utilized early in the
disease progression.
Budesonide
Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries have maintained a much lower fatality rate with
Covid 19 then we have here in America, in spite of the fact they live in densely populated
communities. Many people believe that it is due to their preferred method of treatment. They
use a steroid medication that is inhaled in a mist through a home use nebulizer. I'm familiar
with this since my 2 year old granddaughter needed this treatment with a similar drug for an
upper respiratory issue that she had recently. That speaks to the safety and the commonality of
this treatment. Watch the link of a
Texas doctor who shares his patient's experiences with this therapy method using the drug
Budesonide and a course of antibiotics.
Ivermectin
Another treatment option that appears to be safe
and effective is the use of the antiparasitic drug Ivermectin with the antibiotic
Doxycycline. Just one Ivermectin pill and then the course of antibiotics for ten days resulted
in a 100 percent cure rate for Covid 19 patients according to the attached study. Ivermectin
has been widely used on the continent of Africa for many years as an anti-parasitic and is
believed to be a primary reason that Covid 19 has not severely impacted the African
population.
The challenge with this therapeutic is both finding a doctor who will prescribe it and
finding a pharmacy that will sell it. This should be between you and your doctor. Not the
governors of certain states. Considering that 20 percent of all drugs are prescribed "off
label", meaning that they are prescribed for a use other than intended, you and your doctor
should have the liberty and the responsibility to make this health care decision.
There are several other therapies that appear to be safe, effective and affordable. You may
want to research Chlorine Dioxide, intravenous ozone, high dose intravenous vitamin C and
another, glutathione which are popular treatments in the homeopathic communities.
As for me and my family, we are going to make informed and responsible decisions regarding
our health care. I hope the information I've given to you today along with the links for
further information will help you, your family and your doctor make the best decisions as
well.
Gary Heavin and his wife Diane are the founders of Curves, the world's largest fitness
franchise. Gary is the author of two NY Times bestselling books, Curves and Curves on the go.
Gary co-wrote and starred in the movie Amerigeddon. Gary is a pro-life libertarian and serves
on the advisory board of Dr. Ron Paul's Institute for Peace and Prosperity. Gary and his wife
are philanthropists who feed 10,000 children a day in Haiti and operate an orphanage outside
the slums of Mumbai. Most importantly, they are bible believing Christians.
Excellent article. Early treatment is definitely key. The French doctor who recommended
hydroxychloroquine way back in Feb. said that it needs to be given early, by the time they go
on ventilator it's no longer effective. I read in Zerohedge last week that in TX, doctors
said they simply give patients who come into the emergency room a steroid shot and send them
home with antibiotics. Usually they are already feeling much better after the steroid shot.
Even those who are hospitalized are now only staying 3-5 days.
I find it incredulous that on their website, CDC is still telling people to stay
home if they are sick, that "many people" get over it themselves without treatment, and
to *not* go to the doctor's until we are having difficulty breathing. By then it is too late!
Doctors have said that the main difference btwn Covid patients and flu patients is, with a
flu patient, when their lungs are 10% fluid, they are already having difficulty breathing,
but for some reason for Covid19, the patient does not have difficulty breathing until the
lungs are 50 to 60% fluid, which is why it's too late by the time they sought treatment.
This article discusses the low fatality rate in HK(0.4%) and Singapore(<0.1%), the
doctors there attributed it to early treatment using a different cocktail of drugs:
interferon beta-1b, which was developed to treat multiple sclerosis; ribavirin, which is used
in the treatment of hepatitis C; and lopinavir-ritonavir, also known by its brand name,
Kaletra. But again, early treatment is key.
https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/singapore/how-hong-kong-singapore-kept-coronavirus-death-rates-low/ar-BB14CLbM
CDC is an absolute fail. I'm beginning to believe they want more people to die so Trump
would lose the election. They need to change their advice on their website before more lives
are senselessly lost. Pence as the Covid Tzar is also totally failing on his job by not
calling him out.
I'm also beginning to believe those who claim hydroxychloroquine doesn't work simply want
to keep it for themselves and their cronies to take as preventive drug. Trump has been on it
and he hasn't gotten sick, even though he's been exposed to lots of people. Something tells
me many of our congress critters and the effing Jews are already loaded up on it.
I can't wait for November 4th when COVID-19 ends for good and all the masks and social
distancing bullshit ends. Thankfully this C-19 psyops will last just 8 months and not the 2+
years the Russian collusion BS was drawn out to. Though sadly with the former it has further
eviscerated working/middle-class America. I'm guessing that was part of the plan as well.
I believe Mr. Heavin more than I believe the government, and the CDC in particular.
But that could also apply to a Numerologist vs the gov't, so there's that.
I don't believe Jeffrey Epstein died a natural death any more than I believe the
mainstream media is the least bit impartial. They used to try. They tried to keep the news
and the Op-Ed pages separate. But that was then and this is now
This is getting fun!
So, I used to believe that cops were always the good guys, and that federal judges
were above politics. Oh, and they would never lie, or take a bribe. And I believed that
priests would never, ever molest a boy, or even girl (did I get that backward?), or even use
bad words around them. And I believed Scoutmasters took Boy Scouts up into the mountains for
the fresh air and Indian lore OK, this is starting to sound ridiculous.
Except, now I'm not sure what to believe any more.
No offense but do you know how many people claim to have had Covid before Covid was cool?
I don't know anyone who has tested positive but I know 25 people who claim they had or have
it. In the past three years there have been severe influenzas making the rounds, there is no
denying that. And why should routine flu and colds take a holiday just because our criminal
elites tell us there is a special disease we need to watch out for? My point is we are so
deceived that nobody knows up from down anymore. But at least we know one thing for sure --
hostile elites are working to deceive us.
My doctor suffers from a delusion common to her profession. She thinks she is a "Medical
Scientist". Actually she is a retailer for pharmaceuticals and medical technologies. She is a
sales person in a capitalist industry And should she have any questions about her real role
in a health care field which is really a substance and med tech pushing industry, her
colleagues – fellow sales people – will remind her of her professional
obligations by threatening her board certification to insure her near absolute conformity to
market standards.
But there is no getting her to understand her real role in the medical industry. She
believes her own hype or the hype created about her profession back in the 1950s when a few
genuinely useful drugs and technologies were discovered which then afforded the money making
corporate establishment the opportunity to take a humane craft and, thru the "science" of
Epidemiology -Medical speak for lying with statistics – turn professional Medicine into
probably the largest boondoggle in history. Consider the flag ship for usurious medicine
– cholesterol lowering statin drugs.
But why don't I get rid of my essentially brain dead doctor, go to to someone else?
Practically speaking, there is no one else. There are doctors who understand all this and
write books about it but they are so rare as to be useless when real sickness like bacterial
infections for which there are useful technologies like antibiotics actually occur. The most
useful thing these real scientific doctors have to say is "Don't see your doctor" unless you
have a real emergency – like an old fashion visceral type sickness – as opposed
to some epidemiologically hyped condition like, again, "high cholesterol" as the "cause" of
heart disease.
But now we have a genuine epidemic that is killing and injuring people and Medical Science
is lying to us about possible treatments. Even a Medical skeptic like myself could not have
predicted this level of base greed by our Medical pharmaceutical establishment This is
tantamount to MURDER. And we have no government -whether it be run by Democrats or
Republicans- who will take action. They are all on the Med Pharm tit and/or deluded by
"Medical Science" as well. Until we learn to help ourselves and overthrow this system, God
help us
I've been reading everything counter-&-alternative to the deception I could find since
it first appeared, but had never thought to investigate therapies until reading your article.
Fortuitously, for me (in Thailand), Hydroxychloroquine is being used therapeutically and may
even be available OTC.
However, Big Medicine & Big Pharma are already here and steadily making inroads into
health care and medicine.
Whatever happened to that vaccine that some Israeli Genius Doctors claimed would be ready
in a few weeks, which was months ago now? What a shock that that never materialized.
Click-baitish, much? Well, you got me in, but you seem to have a good 'treatment'
argument, and 'good luck,' both by avoiding Covid-19 in the 1st place and finding a
'collaborative+pursuasive' Dr in the 2nd = worst case, should you or one of yours gets 'hit.'
[Perish the thought.]
But IMHO, the Great est Covid-19 Deception is the negligent way most
'Western' governments have *not* taken Covid-19 properly seriously, starting of course with
US = Trump and UK = Johnson then perhaps SE 'led' by so-called expert Tegnell next in a
looong list of apparent delinquents.
Again IMHO, when Wuhan realised that they were under a bio-warfare-like attack [possibly
when they 1st saw the PRRA inclusion in the decoded genome], they reacted like cut snakes and
proceeded with the speed of fear-stricken Gazelles in a very largely successful attempt to
*suppress* the virus. But, of course, they are communists, eh? So-called 'democratic'
[in-name-only governments, many largely bolshie 'wo/men in the street'] think differently
[even to their own detriment; they just can't help themselves.]
With the possible exception of NZ = Ardern, most 'Western' governments went for
'mitigation' = 'flattening the curve,' if they took any action at all, see BR = Bolsonaro
"has accused the media of "fear-mongering"" and IIRC said something like "What can
I do?"
Here is an article, 1st found by me in March on MoA
:
MoA blurb: 'Here is his latest in which he argues not only to "flatten the curve" but to
eradicate the virus.'
For my last IMHO, all 'Western' leaders who have acted with less than full effort =
incompetently meaning ineffectively on behalf of their 'own people' should be prosecuted for
their negligence. rgds
A good article all around, except that the population of the UK is nowhere near eighty
million. The latest figure I can find gives 66 million. Also, your attempt to invoke the Bard
('As Shakespeare wrote, "Doth thou protest too much?"') is lamentably botched. Try 'Methinks
the lady doth protest too much'. (Hamlet's mother Gertrude says it of what she regards as
overacting in a play that Hamlet has arranged for his mother and her husband, the usurper
Claudius, to watch).
It is a great idea to have a candid discussion with your doctor/nurse on the issue of big
pharma's economic power and how it creates conflicts of interest in the medical
profession.
Many doctors/nurses already knew it and will quickly agree, many more "get it" after you
explain it to them.
If your doctor is so brainwashed by "experts" that they think you are an "anti-science
kook", time to get a new doctor!
Bingo – it's all a total bunch of malarkey. All the BS isn't aimed at people our age
(I'm 76), it's aimed at the milennials and younger. It is shaping them for the "Brave New
World" that they will live.
First let me say that the virus has never been satisfactorily isolated and does not meet
Koch's postulates, which leads some people to speculate that it does not exist at all. The
symptoms are so various as to be nonsensical; whatever the virus may be, last winter, that
led to all the hospitalizations is open to question. Certainly the fear-porn spewed out 24/7
by the corporate media led to high levels of anxiety among the credulous and many of these no
doubt presented as Covid-19 patients even though they were in fact suffering from the flu or
a bad cold. Once in the hands of the quacks, nosocomial infections and intubation really made
them sick – or dead.
As for protection against any respiratory illness, vitamin D is essential and I am
surprised the author fails to understand this. 4000 IU per day maximum.
All that aside, Covid-19 a gigantic psyop designed to usher in a world government. It was
even rehearsed in 2019 and all the wrinkles worked out beforehand.
If you can't get hydroxychloroquine there is some evidence that the natural substance
quercetin found in apples and onions can act as an ionophore that transports zinc into the
cell. Instead of the z-pak, a natural antibiotic like oregano or cinnamon oil might suffice.
These items quercetin, zinc and oregano and cinnamon oil are all available down at the local
health food store. There is more evidence for the hydroxychloroquine, zinc, z-pak combination
so those would be the preferred combination if you can get them but these natural substances
might help if you can't get them and might act as a preventative to keep from getting the
virus if you use them regularly.
I have found only a few studies that support the use of these natural substances but you
need to understand that since these aren't drugs they can't be patented so there isn't the
same financial incentive to prove their effectiveness as there would be with drugs that can
be patented and then sold exclusively by one company.
Whether hydoxy/chloroquine works or not is something that will be clear only after there
are studies that allow to take a final conclusion. The question has been discussed critically
by the press, by medical doctors, by people. Of course, everybody knows that it's possible
that no vaccination will function or be available (we can hear this everyday on television).
Contrary to what the author says, a phamaceutical firm was happy that the medicament could be
possibly used when the question came up and some people were optimistic about it. The web
site of a German television wrote in may that it was still conceivable that hydoxychloroquine
could work in the very early stages of the disease (after first negative results). This was
only speculation.
The author mentions a talk with some friends of him and some information that he has. But
there have been a few studies, good or bad, with chloroquine with negative results. The study
of the Lancet was taken back because the data that they used was apparently not trustworthy.
This shows how difficult it is to have good and conclusive results in a short time. We can
say the same about the evidence used by the author. It doesn't mean very much. We still have
to see what happens and until now we don't know. There are efforts to find ways to treat
better the disease. In German, I read yesterday:
The media never talks about those who recovered from Corona virus like BOJO, the prime
minister of UK or others. What treatment the recovered patients received, how it helped them
and other information. We hear only the scary stuff.
Dr. Fauci and associates could never develop his promised HIV vaccine. I read somewhere that
he had been on the same job for the last 37 years. Go figure.
"DR" Bill Gate of MS is an expert of globalized vaccination and his articles on the
subject have been published in several Medical Journals.
New Economy. Question More.
I was diagnosed with an upper respiratory infection in April. Was given a Z-pack for 5
days, an inhaler, Albuterol Sulfate that I am going to refill and a pill for cough,
Benzonatate 200mg. They tested me for Flu, Pneumonia, Strep and Covid. All test came back
negative.
Now I have a sinus infection and was prescribed another Z-pack with Prednisone 250mg twice
a day for five days.
I've been feeling under the weather for months now.
Oh! Now I remember my question. How much zinc daily should we be taking?
So, now we know who the enemy is. When can we start arresting and executing them?
I've had a condition common to old men for a long time. I went to some MD from the Far
East who started immediately talking about cutting me up. I went to a second doctor, a young
American, and told him I guess I needed to be sliced and diced. He said, "Not so fast" and
recommended the regular use of two substances I could get at the vitamin store. I did so and
the matter improved to the point that I felt effectively cured.
Last week, I went back to him. He works at a large establishment that includes my regular
MD. I started telling him about how miraculous and enlightened his advice was. He quickly
shut me up and started talking about operations and antibiotics. He wouldn't even listen when
I told him that his earlier advice had worked. My presumption is that the financial people
got to him. I'd guess that they do a regular review of medical care by each physician to see
how they can better monetize their practice. Anyway, his changed tone was remarkable enough
that it had to be something like money that was involved.
Covid 19 is just another in a long line of fake or hyped up illnesses. Remember H1N1,
H5n1, SARS1, Swine flu, Bird flu, Zika and others. AIDS was another fake disease (read Dr.
Peter Duesberg on this). The same type of hoax is being perpetrated with the current Corona
"epidemic."
Notice it supposedly began in Wuhan China. This city of 11 million has the worlds worst
air pollution. 350,000 people per year die of pneumonia in China. There are lots of people
there that can be tagged as Covid 19 victims. Also quickly touted as a hot spot by our Jew
controlled MSM was deaths in Italy. Official autopsies revealed over 99% of victims had pre
existing illness, most of them had multiple ones at an avg. age go 69.5. Latter the age went
up but I can't remember the exact figure. Remember CDC criminal Debra Brix said "we have told
the hospitals to tag everything possible as Covid 19."
Remember the fake tents set up all over and the hospital ship that looked like a relic of
WW1. The MSM kept talking about overflowing hospitals. Several people took videos of near
vacant hospitals at this time including Brian Ruhe's exposure of Vancouver's practically
empty hospital. Whenever you see the media jump all over something with all the official
spokesmen and there is no alternative opinion allowed, you known it is a gov. false flag. All
of a sudden climate change is no longer the critical topic of the day. I guess Greta Thunberg
got the covid.
The covid 19 has never been identified by the standard scientific method of the Koch's
postulates because they can't. If you have a fake virus you must have a fake test. That is
the PCR test that gives ap. 200 false positives, does not determine one Corona (cold from
another) and is not quantitative is a fake test. The numbers given by the CDC (holds 50
vaccine related patents) that is really an adjunct of big Pharma are a crock of baloney. Most
of these figures are generated from old people in the nursing homes that are given a "visual"
conformation as having covid. Note that Fauci said in February that the masks did more harm
than good. Hospitals get paid big money for labeling patients as Covid victims and many times
doctors just write it on the report.
The Zionists have hit a home run with this medical hoax and they will never give it up
unless the cucks start using their brain a little bit and figure some things out. The next
move will be manditory dangerous vaccines for all the cattle. There is big money to be made
in the vaccine scam. To get the truth on vaccines read Dissolving Illusions by Dr. Suzanne
Humphries and books by Forrest Maready.
The Covid scam has been planned for many years, this was an opportune time to spring it as
a cover for the central banks theft of trillions more while bankrupting the workers and small
businesses. The Jews at Blak Rock are big investors in masks and will now be scooping up
failed businesses everywhere just like in 08.
Except, now I'm not sure what to believe any more.
Can anyone tell me ?
My uncle told me a story a long time ago about a man who had his young son climb a tree in
the back yard. He let him get pretty high and then said, "Jump Johnny, Jump!" Johnny said,
"If I jump, I'll get hurt." The Dad said, "No, I'll catch you." Johnny jumped and the Dad did
nothing. The boy hit the ground and was crying, though not permanently injured.
He said to his Dad, "Father, you promised to catch me."
"Let that be a lesson," the Dad said. "Don't trust NOBODY."
Well, seeing as libertarians are against government action to stop abortions, I suppose
all that a libertarian who opposes abortion is allowed to do is acting against it in their
private life; seeing as that is exactly what the pro-choice option means, you see that Gary's
position is rigorously meaningless: he is pro-life and pro-choice at the same time.
That is a really grand deception, regardless of any other claimed by this article, and all
I need to know about it.
I also prefer plain facts to eloquent fiction (MSM). Your article has obvious practical
value for the public. It's a keeper. I also hope it circulates widely as an effective
antidote to virulant MSM viruses.
BTW, my first act following retirement from four decades of professional news writing was
to cancel all newspaper and magazine subscriptions. There is no utility in paying to be
misinformed.
It never ceases to amaze me that so many people who have never set foot in a news room now
regurgitate MSM propaganda as though it came down from Mt. Sinai. MSM journalism has now run
the gamut from the duty to reveal what is true, even if it hurts, to the need to say what
sounds nice, even if the reporter himself doesn't believe it. That's the definition of
PR.
When this wears thin they'll discover another killer virus and there'll be another
go-round. They started off saying the lockdowns were just for a brief time and then when they
got their foot in the door it was extended. Now government herding people around by diktat is
a permanent feature of American society. They'll never let it go. There's already been some
report of some other mysterious killer virus coming out of Kazakhstan so get ready. This is
the largest transfer of wealth scheme ever, the assets of the bankrupted scooped up by the
big companies.
'Most importantly, they are Bible believing Christians.'
That for me, as a Muslim, is the best guarantee that the person writing this article will
have written all in good faith because he or she is answerable to God.
Overall, the article was very informative and pertinent to the situation we face
today.
The article cites imperfect studies in which hydroxychloroquine was found to be an
ineffective therapeutic for COVID19 – imperfect because the treatment was generally
started too late in the progression of the disease. The author postulates that, if treatment
were begun earlier, mortality would be drastically reduced but, unfortunately, there is no
study to support this and the majority of people suffering the symptoms of early-onset
COVID19 will recover spontaneously anyway.
Singapore, with its superb bureaucratic infrastructure, has reported over 45,000
infections but only 26 deaths – that is 4 deaths per million population. South Korea
reports 13,000+ deaths and 287 deaths (6 per million population) and Japan 20,000 cases and
981 deaths (10 per million) compare this to the USA with 364 deaths per million or the UK
with 718.
I have yet to see a convincing explanation of these shocking differences and, when asked
recently, a British government spokesman said that it is "too early" to start drawing
international comparisons – "too early" for whom you might ask? Evidently not for those
who have succumbed – by now a huge effort should have been put forth to account for the
disparity – even if the explanation is demographic as is being largely claimed. I
assume that national pride has stood in the way of seeking answers by sending study teams to
these countries.
The article recounts a number of inexpensive treatments that might work and points
to "Big Pharma" as the major reason these are not being systematically studied – that
may well be an impediment in the USA particularly – so gathering of data from East
Asia, where that influence is far less and where dramatic positive results are seen, is all
the more urgent.
Meanwhile my family will wear masks and hunker down because we have no particular plan to
implement if one of us catches this bug.
Here is a clue, stop doing ALL the things they tell you to do because its all designed to
make you sicker. Eat real food, so many people just don't get it, its garbage in and garbage
out. Curves have always been flattened by the healthy freely moving about [oops, stay home],
health from being outside, in the sun, and amongst nature is vital [oops stay inside], eating
good REAL food is how you have a good immune system [oops, dont want that we need sick people
for the pharma devils, therefore we'll allow FAST [shit] FOOD to be readily available [no
contact of course [OMG can you actually believe this crap?] Wear a mask because the covid
devil lurks everywhere [oops, retard the flow of healthy oxygen into your body, breath back
in your own exhalations of CO2 and bacteria so you can increase your odds of getting sick,
you just cant make this twisted stuff up!!!] Social distance, thats the best one? We should
be wanting to be social for many many reasons, the least of which is because we ARE social
animals, but the best way to flatten any curve is, as previously stated, assimilate it [as
humans have with all viruses] to develop herd immunity [something that you CANNOT get with a
toxic vaccination], like Sweden and Japan. STOP watching MSM and social platforms removing
truth. Actually STOP watching TV, its all designed to make you think a certain way.
The biggest problem with this article is that it does not address the fundamental basis of
the fraud that is CV19.
The Chinese supposedly identified a new coronavirus and named it SARS-CoV-2.
Then, the WHO made a vague list of symptoms and created a syndrome called COVID19.
There is no proven connection whatsoever between the supposedly identified virus and the
syndrome.
Billing codes were created that allow the assumed or tested diagnosis of CV19.
To make matters worse, a test was created which only tests for "markers" of coronavirus
and has never been proven to connect to the above viruses or the above syndrome. Thus testing
positive or negative really has no meaning as proven by the disconnect between symptoms and
diagnosis.
Then, the government incentivized and instructed the use of the above billing codes and
created the commonly known situation of people dying "with" the syndrome even though they
died of other causes.
Add to that the manipulation of the case count, etc. Then, you have New York and New
Jersey basically murdering people with treatment. Loved ones banned from visiting homes
– for reasons they might bring the virus in – while "positive" sick patients are
brought in. Reconcile that.
I am not saying a few people aren't sick, but there is no way to deal with something while
these language tricks are going on.
The virus, the syndrome, and the tests, and the count of cases have no scientific
connection to each other. What is it you are talking about being treated for? The flu?
Yes, where IS that Wonder of Modern Medicine anyway? We were breathlessly told of its
soon-to-be release; I even thought that it was peculiar that the Israelis were so
serendipitously working on just the right strain of coronavirus as to be in the forefront of
vaccine development.
Miracles happen.
Except when they don't. And, to summarize here, there has NEVER been a stable/effective
vaccine for the coronavirus family of viruses. NEVER.
@skrik bio-warfare-like attack [possibly when they 1st saw the PRRA inclusion in the
decoded genome], they reacted like cut snakes and proceeded with the speed of fear-stricken
Gazelles in a very largely successful attempt to *suppress* the virus. But, of course,
they are communists, eh?"
Finally some sense in the sea of conspiratards. It is fascinating to observe the insanity
of White nations – they will cling to their clearly delusional beliefs to the end, even
when an alternative is presenting itself this whole time.
Wearing a mask apparently turns you into a slave. Believing in the existence of the virus
makes you a shill. Pure anarchism, just without the bombs.
The comment #19 by UncommonGround is decent as well.
@Mark G. As well (and mentioned in some of the above comments) there are many studies
indicating that adequate levels of Vitamin D may be protective. Best source: sunlight; then
fresh fish, then supplements.
The entire point of this article is "self-rescue." It is clear to me that the "official"
recommendation is to "stay home, don't come to your doctor's office/E.R. until you get
shortness of breath, etc." so as to not "overload the hospital system."
The latter advice will get you killed if you are elderly and/or have certain
co-morbidities. Treat yourself early on, be proactive towards you health; oh, also, maybe
stop shoving Cheetos down your neck, take a walk, lose some weight?
Moon of Alabama is a controlled website that censors dissenting commenters. The Covid-19
has completely blown the cover of that site and Mr. 'b'. Do not push that site. This
unz.com site does not censor comments. Get
back to us when Mr. 'b' (or is that German Intelligence?) decides to play his role properly
again.
Hi Herald,
The reason I didn't mention vitamin D3 is that I classify it under prevention rather than
therapeutics.
I take 2,000 iu daily, 2,000 mg of vitamin C, 30 mg of zinc and 200 mg of magnesium to help
prevent illness.
That's the main point of information needed if "need to know" is at the top of the list on
how to survive. A person "diagnosed with covid19" should know that the existence of this
"novel coronavirus" has not been established in any way that is based in actual science.
Such a diagnosis subjects the purportedly infected person to treatments that would be, at
best, useless. Diagnosis is the starting point for a political assault conducted by means of
"contact tracing" prescribed by an Israeli intelligence operation, and can't possibly include
any effective medical treatment.
No medical treatment exists that can cure infection with an imaginary virus.
Thank you for your corrections. When I found out that Ron was going to post my article on
this website I was very excited due to the quality of its readership. People like you.
A chinaman told me that lots of chopsuey with exotic wild animals worked for his country,
whereas a wetback told me lots of beans and rice with hot sauce was the key to their success.
Here in my neighboring neighborhood, the Borough Park, I hear that bubbies are offering up
matzo ball soup with a scrawny chicken thrown in and the Bensonhurst Fredos are insisting
that had the Italian government not abandoned the age old custom of over eating pasta
fagioli, none of those paisans needlessly would have died. So, who do you believe?
July 9, 2020 CDC May Officially Downgrade COVID From An 'Epidemic'
The coronavirus mortality rate in the United States has dropped so low that the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention may soon stop calling the virus an "epidemic."
I had symptomatic corona. It was a day and a half of mild fever and fatigue. Basically
like the flu but not nearly as bad. Everyone else I've known that had symptomatic corona
(already a small minority of those who actually got infected woth corona) experienced the
same or even less.
If you're just about to die from something else anyway, yeah maybe such a mild disease can
give you that last little push. At that point you need to be thinking about saying confession
and your relationship to eternity not some magic drug extending your life another few
months
Coronavirus is one of the biggest scams, frauds, psyops, mass hypnosis, in history, see
these sites for the truth about the coronavirus scam, henrymakow.com , thetruthseeker.co.uk, chuckbaldwinlive.com , thedollarvigilante.com .
@Gleimhart Mantooso aled that they had designed a vaccine and tested it on hamsters. They
wrote that a single dose "was able to protect hamsters against SARS-CoV-2."
The (((CoronaRona?))) Well, put it this way, the same people pushing the (((CoronaRona)))
story or the same people who told you that Germans gassed 6 gatrillion Jews in the
"holocaust." You might have a better chance at seeing Santa Claus than dying from the
(((CoronaRona.)))
During the riots, the weasel, Fauci and that female doctor whats her name, were nowhere to
be seen, and now they have returned and the (((CoronaRona))) is being looped 24/7. My guess
is that all these (((medical experts))) will recommend another lock-down until the election.
IF Biden wins, which given the corruption out there, is highly likely whether we are in
lock-down or not, the (((CoronaRona))) will fade away into the night. IF Trump is somehow is
reelected, well the (((Antifa-BLM))) types will be having another meltdown that the
(((media))) will cover 24/7, and the (((CoronaRona))) will be back page news again.
For Kirt, yes, I think I already had it too, seven or eight weeks from NYE last year to
mid-Feb. of this. As I have said several times, the area near my workplace was usually full
of Chinese tourists.
I had a cough, extreme lethargy on many days, a slight fever. Water frnm my nose, always
the case for me in winter, but no sneezing. I must raise the idea with my regular doc., since
I saw him at least three times over that time.
As for our author, Heavin's article, he is clearly offering better ideas for treatments
than big pharma, but who really needs treatment?
Those who have a persistent cold-like syndrome?
Anyome identified through the polymerase chain reaction tests, which prove nothing.
Just ignore it and it will go away seems by far the wisest course.
WARNING: FOR THOSE WHO USE NORD VPN for their VPN service
If you select NORDVPN's "CYBERSEC" option to "block ads and malicious websites" , you will
no longer be able to get on sites like unz.com
or many other right wing sites (like Mike Rivero's site: whatreallyhappened.com for instance).
NORDVPN's CYBERSEC will, however, allow you on all the left wing sites pushed by the ADL.
This means that NORDVPN'S CYBERSEC option is probably using the ADL's filtering criteria.
I questioned NORDVPN about this "selectivity" and never received a reply.
This also means that your NORDVPN software could well be spying on you and recording your
keystrokes if you try to access to certain unapproved sites EVEN IF if the CYBERSEC option
hasn't chosen.
NORDVPN is now, curiously enough, based in Panama, a country which the US government has
been shown in the past to have considerable influence over when the need arises. (Ask Manuel
Noriega for examples)
Spread the word.
It might be time choose a different VPN sofware if you are now using NORDVPN. Anybody have
any good suggestions?
I believe!
I believe in CNN.
I believe that half of population of USA will die of Corona virus.
The other half because Corona virus infecting toe nails will become zombies.
Also their brains are now eaten out by Corona virus.
All US population will be replaced by natives from Africa.
First herd of Negroes are already swimming halfway in Atlantic toward America.
Well?
Its not really funny.
But than CNN is never funny.
Cases now mean positive tests and of course, no really knows what that means, other than
that more useless tests have been carried out. As the graph clearly indicates these so called
"cases" have little to do with deaths. Nor do they have anything to do with
hospitalisations.
We are clearly in the midst of an almighty scam, which is much much bigger than simply
getting rid of Trump.
To Bras my pro-life libertarian position does not become "meaningless" as if my prolife
and libertarianism negate each other as you suggest. It's quite simple. Libertarianism
demands we not harm other persons. An unborn baby is a person.
To Che I certainly agree with you that Covid 19 has been hyped, politicized, misrepresented,
etc..
If I come down with a severe upper respiratory event that is heading toward pneumonia-like
symptoms, I've lost my sense of taste and smell I'm going to talk with my Doctor and try one
of the therapies I've written about. I hope you do the same.
@gotmituns e before the year is out. My bucolic life has been given a shake and I'm
scrambling to best position our family (we live on the same property) financially and
economically when BNW arrives with a vengeance. I wish to leave my grandchildren (my son, a
water well driller, is prospering, happily, but still ) wholly owned property and the houses
thereon plus one. I believe the BNW will have a distinctly local air to it in rural or
semi-rural communities: little travel, local employment save for telecommuters, detachment
from social media, different educational strategies and opportunities, etc. If you share this
belief, get cracking and pretend that the reset has already arrived and act accordingly.
I now wouldn't trust any VPN whatsoever service that wasn't entirely "open source".
Protonvpn claims to be "open source". (On the other hand, NORDVPN isn't open source).
Definition of very important term "open source" for those are unfamiliar with it: https://opensource.org/osd
If a software isn't "open source" it could potentially be spying on you. Choosing a VPN
service using "open source" software should be the PRIMARY and most critical consideration
when choosing a VPN service.
Non "open source" VPN software is open to outside manipulation and possible government
infiltration.
It suits her personality as she is a quite orderly and methodical person. However, it
means that she is incapable of critical thinking. All doctors in Australia are invited to
free seminars and meals at expensive restaurants – paid for by pharmaceutical
companies.
Sadly, she did not listen to my opinion about vaccines for our two girls. In the State of
Victoria, they give a mandatory HPV vaccine. However, HPV is only a problem for those who are
promiscuous. Furthermore, this vaccine is essentially an unknown. It is highly-expensive at
some US$300 – paid for by the tax-payers. I suspect the vaccine altered the personality
of one of our daughters. It is uncanny.
I neither wear a mask nor hunker down and I'm a "double-vulnerable" (nearly 74 and mildly
diabetic). A close lady friend is the village pharmacist and when on duty wears the mask
under mild duress; neither of us wears it when alone with each other. Unless you're in a
densely populated area, better to go out and get at least half an hour of sun daily, fortify
yourself and family, keep the faith and don't succumb to manufactured fear, sez I.
@macilrae ak links here in the USA, sad to say. During my most recent trip to the market,
I saw perhaps 7-10% of shoppers with their masks pulled down so it was covering the mouth,
but not the nose. For the most part, these non-complying shoppers were the fat, ugly,
slovenly, and stupid looking types one would try to avoid anyway, so the pulled-down mask is
a good signal to give these types a very wide berth.
Recall that the world's experience with COVID-19 amounts to just six or seven months.
Nobody knows what this virus may do in the future, but odds are it will mutate, like all
viruses.
Psst: If it's just the flu, bro, why is it still spreading in the summer?
I found your figures regarding the vaccine cost and quantity remarkable, to say the
least.
After some research, I could find no reference of a commitment by the UK government to
purchase 80 million doses at $600 each.
I did find, however, reference to the Oxford/AstraZeneca potential vaccine AZD1222 which
is estimated to cost around 2.5 euros or about $2.80 US. This appears to be the direction
that the EU is going, but it is unclear if the UK will be part of it.
Could you please forward a link or reference for the source of your figures?
Your family will wear masks, because you are slaves. Absolutely no one claims wearing a
mask will prevent you from catching a flu or cold (Corona virus).
Pavia, a cure that works, challenges media silence: "Plasma kills the virus"
"Plasma kills the coronavirus." The therapy developed by the Immuno-hematology Institute
of Saint Matthew in Pavia is encouraging. In this exclusive interview with The Daily Compass
given at the end of his experimentation, director Cesare Perotti reveals the positive
results: "The treatment works; at the moment no one has died; the USA has asked for the
protocols." But nobody is talking about it: "There are other interests opposing us, but we
will address these after the scientific publication." This is how the shared treatment works,
by "using" volunteers who have recovered to help heal those who are sick.
What Achilles Wannabe writes is ABSOLUTELY CORRECT.
If I have to, the ONLY way to purchase HDC is via my Canadian brothers. Naturally, I would
need an American doctor's prescription, but push comes to shove, I absolutely refuse going to
ANY American "medical doctor" to treat me.
Hopefully, the Canadian prescription stores would be able to fill that prescription. If
not, oh well.
Living in this dying nation is death-defying.
For commenters who've remarked on the incidences of (a) obesity, (b) diabetes and (c) high
blood pressure - other cardiovascular ailments (not sure anyone referred to [c] but it's on
most lists), these are all ultimately rooted in poverty / stress.
For commenters who remarked on the "Southern" diet and McDonald's food, many urban
neighborhoods and poor rural counties are food deserts, period. The urban elite in the South
(Black and white alike) have diets that resemble those of residents of Manhattan.
For the commenter who remarked on the absence of a national health care program in the
U.S. - yes, this is a major contributing factor but it's further complicated by other
intersecting forms of injustice which contribute to the heightened risk for Blacks who
contract the virus.
The premise of the OP is correct in my view, and the post correctly concludes the Identity
Politics is being used (by both sides) to mask the real disease.
I must applaud b for finally bringing in the Class War into his COVID-19 analysis. What
you are genetically isn't the main factor; rather, it's your socio-economic-- CLASS
--status that matters most regarding your potential exposure to the disease. Activists within
the Outlaw US Empire have pointed to that fact going back to March, and it's certainly a big
factor fueling the ongoing protests.
Australian Financial Review
John Davidson
July 6, 2020
Researchers at La Trobe University in Australia have developed an augmented reality (AR)
visualization of the effects of Covid-19 on the lungs, in an effort to aid diagnosis and
treatment. The researchers converted two-dimensional (2D) computed tomography (CT) scans of
Covid-damaged lungs into three-dimensional (3D) images. Microsoft's HoloLens 2 headset lets
researchers view those images, superimposed into the space in front of their eyes. Said La
Trobe's Henry Duh, "If you only see a 2D scan, without HoloLens, you need to do more mental
rotations and reconstructions in order to figure out what it looks like in the body." The
researchers hope to use machine learning to analyze original CT scans and identify areas of the
lungs damaged by the disease.
There is an ongoing battle to suppress Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), a cheap and effective drug
for the treatment of Covid-19. The campaign against HCQ is carried out through slanderous
political statements, media smears, not to mention an authoritative peer reviewed "evaluation"
published on May 22nd by The Lancet, which was based on fake figures and test trials.
The study was allegedly based on data analysis of 96,032 patients hospitalized with COVID-19
between Dec 20, 2019, and April 14, 2020 from 671 hospitals Worldwide. The database had been
fabricated. The objective was to kill the Hydroxychloroquine ( HCQ) cure on behalf of Big
Pharma.
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While The Lancet article was retracted, the media casually blamed "a tiny US based company"
named Surgisphere whose employees included "a sci-fi writer and an adult content model" for
spreading "flawed data"
(Guardian) . This Chicago based outfit was accused of having misled both the WHO and
national governments, inciting them to ban HCQ. None of those trial tests actually took
place.
While the blame was placed on Surgisphere, the unspoken truth (which neither the scientific
community nor the media have acknowledged) is that the study was coordinated by Harvard professor
Mandeep Mehra under the auspices of Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) which is a partner
of the Harvard Medical School.
When the scam was revealed , Dr. Mandeep Mehra who holds the Harvey Distinguished Chair of
Medicine at Brigham and Women's Hospital apologized:
I have always performed my research in accordance with the highest ethical and
professional guidelines. However, we can never forget the responsibility we have as
researchers to scrupulously ensure that we rely on data sources that adhere to our high
standards.
It is now clear to me that in my hope to contribute this research during a time of great
need, I did not do enough to ensure that the data source was appropriate for this use. For
that, and for all the disruptions – both directly and indirectly – I am truly
sorry. (emphasis added)
Studies on Gilead Science's Remdesivir and Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) Were Conducted
Simultaneously by Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH)
While The Lancet report (May 22, 2020) coordinated by Dr. Mandeep Mehra was intended "to
kill" the legitimacy of HCQ as a cure of Covid-19, another important (related) study was being
carried out (concurrently) at BWH pertaining to Remdesivir on behalf of Gilead Sciences Inc.
Dr. Francisco Marty, a specialist in Infectious Disease and Associate Professor at Harvard
Medical School was entrusted with coordination of
the clinical trial tests of the antiviral medication Remdesivir under Brigham's contract with
Gilead Sciences Inc :
Brigham and Women's Hospital began enrolling patients in two clinical trials for Gilead's
antiviral medication remdesivir. The Brigham is one of multiple clinical trial sites for a
Gilead-initiated study of the drug in 600 participants with moderate coronavirus disease
(COVID-19) and a Gilead-initiated study of 400 participants with severe COVID-19.
If the results are promising, this could lead to FDA approval, and if they aren't, it
gives us critical information in the fight against COVID-19 and allows us to move on to other
therapies."
While Dr. Mandeep Mehra was not directly involved in the Gilead Remdesevir BWH study under
the supervision of his colleague Dr. Francisco Marty, he nonetheless had contacts with Gilead
Sciences Inc: "He participated in a conference sponsored by Gilead in early April 2020 as part
of the Covid-19 debate" (France Soir, May 23, 2020)
What was the intent of his (failed) study? To undermine the legitimacy of
Hydroxychloroquine?
According to France Soir, in a report published after The Lancet Retraction:
The often evasive answers produced by Dr Mandeep R. Mehra , professor at Harvard Medical
School, did not produce confidence, fueling doubt instead about the integrity of this
retrospective study and its results . (France Soir, June 5, 2020)
Was Dr. Mandeep Mehra in conflict of interest? (That is a matter for BWH and the Harvard
Medical School to decide upon).
Who are the Main Actors?
Dr. Anthony Fauci, advisor to Donald Trump, portrayed as "America's top infectious disease
expert" has played a key role in smearing the HCQ cure which had been approved years earlier by
the CDC as well as providing legitimacy to Gilead's Remdesivir.
Dr. Fauci has been the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
(NIAID) since the Reagan administration. He is known to act as a mouthpiece for Big Pharma.
Dr. Fauci launched Remdesivir in late June (see details below). According to Fauci,
Remdesevir is the "corona wonder drug" developed by Gilead Science Inc. It's a $1.6 billion
dollar bonanza.
Gilead Sciences Inc: History
Gilead Sciences Inc is a
Multibillion dollar bio-pharmaceutical company which is now involved in developing and
marketing Remdesivir. Gilead has a long history. It has the backing of major investment
conglomerates including the Vanguard Group and Capital Research & Management Co, among
others. It has developed ties with the US Government.
In 1999 Gilead Sciences
Inc, developed Tamiflu (used as a treatment of seasonal influenza and bird flu). At the
time, Gilead Sciences Inc was headed by Donald Rumsfeld (1997-2001), who later joined the
George W. Bush administration as Secretary of Defense (2001-2006). Rumsfeld was responsible for
coordinating the illegal and criminal wars on Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003).
Rumsfeld maintained his links to Gilead Sciences Inc throughout his tenure as Secretary of
Defense (2001-2006). According to CNN Money (2005) :
"The prospect of a bird flu outbreak was very good news for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
[who still owned Gilead stocks] and other politically connected investors in Gilead
Sciences".
Anthony Fauci has been in charge of the NIAID since 1984, using his position as "a go
between" the US government and Big Pharma. During Rumsfeld's tenure as Secretary of Defense,
the budget allocated to bio-terrorism increased substantially, involving contracts with Big
Pharma including Gilead Sciences Inc. Anthony Fauci considered that the money allocated to bio-terrorism in
early 2002 would:
"accelerate our understanding of the biology and pathogenesis of microbes that can be used
in attacks, and the biology of the microbes' hosts -- human beings and their immune systems.
One result should be more effective vaccines with less toxicity." (WPo report)
In 2008, Dr. Anthony Fauci was granted the Presidential Medal of Freedom by president George
W. Bush "for his determined and aggressive efforts to help others live longer and healthier
lives."
The 2020 Gilead Sciences Inc Remdesivir Project
We will be focussing on key documents (and events)
Chronology
February 21: Initial Release pertaining to NIH-NIAID Remdesivir placebo test trial
Gilead Sciences Inc. funded the study which included several staff members as
co-authors.
The testing included a total of 61 patients [who] received at least one dose of remdesivir
on or before March 7, 2020; 8 of these patients were excluded because of missing postbaseline
information (7 patients) and an erroneous remdesivir start date (1 patient) Of the 53
remaining patients included in this analysis, 40 (75%) received the full 10-day course of
remdesivir, 10 (19%) received 5 to 9 days of treatment, and 3 (6%) fewer than 5 days of
treatment.
The NEJM article states that "Gilead Sciences Inc began accepting requests from clinicians
for compassionate use of remdesivir on January 25, 2020". From whom, From Where? According to
the WHO (January 30, 2020) there were 82 cases in 18 countries outside China of which 5 were in
the US, 5 in France and 3 in Canada.
Several prominent physicians and scientists
have cast doubt on the Compassionate Use of Remdesivir study conducted by Gilead, focussing
on the small size of the trial. Ironically, the number of patients in the test is less that the
number of co-authors: "53 patients" versus "56 co-authors"
Below we provide excerpts of scientific statements on the Gilead NEJM project (
Science Media Centre emphasis added) published immediately following the release of the
NEJM article:
" 'Compassionate use' is better described as using an unlicensed therapy to treat a
patient because there are no other treatments available . Research based on this kind of use
should be treated with extreme caution because there is no control group or randomisation,
which are some of the hallmarks of good practice in clinical trials. Prof Duncan Richard ,
Clinical Therapeutics, University of Oxford.
"It is critical not to over-interpret this study. Most importantly, it is impossible to
know the outcome for this relatively small group of patients had they not received
remdesivir. Dr Stephen Griffin , Associate Professor, School of Medicine, University of
Leeds.
"The research is interesting but doesn't prove anything at this point: the data are from a
small and uncontrolled study. Simon Maxwell, Professor of Clinical Pharmacology and
Prescribing, University of Edinburgh.
"The data from this paper are almost uninterpretable. It is very surprising, perhaps even
unethical, that the New England Journal of Medicine has published it. It would be more
appropriate to publish the data on the website of the pharmaceutical company that has
sponsored and written up the study. At least Gilead have been clear that this has not been
done in the way that a high quality scientific paper would be written. Prof Stephen Evans,
Professor of Pharmacoepidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
"It's very hard to draw useful conclusions from uncontrolled studies like this
particularly with a new disease where we really don't know what to expect and with wide
variations in outcomes between places and over time. One really has to question the ethics of
failing to do randomisation – this study really represents more than anything else, a
missed opportunity." Prof Adam Finn, Professor of Paediatrics, University of Bristol.
An independent data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) overseeing the trial met on April
27 to review data and shared their interim analysis with the study team. Based upon their
review of the data, they noted that remdesivir was better than placebo from the perspective
of the primary endpoint, time to recovery, a metric often used in influenza trials. Recovery
in this study was defined as being well enough for hospital discharge or returning to normal
activity level.
Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time
to recovery than those who received placebo (p<0.001). Specifically, the median time to
recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who
received placebo. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0%
for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059). (emphasis
added)
In the NIH's earlier February 21, 2020 report (released at the outset of the study), the
methodology was described as follows:
A randomized, controlled clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the
investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized adults diagnosed with coronavirus
disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Numbers. Where? When?
The February 21 repor t confirmed that the first trial participant was "an American who was
repatriated after being quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship" that docked in
Yokohama (Japanese Territorial Waters). "Thirteen people repatriated by the U.S. State
Department from the Diamond Princess cruise ship" were selected as patients for the placebo
trial test. Ironically, at the outset of the study, 58.7% of the "confirmed cases" Worldwide
(542 cases out of 924) (outside China), were on the Diamond Cruise Princess from which the
initial trial placebo patients were selected.
Where and When: The trial test in the 68 selected sites? That came at a later date because
on February 19th (WHO data), the US had recorded only 15 positive cases (see Table Below).
"A total of 68 sites ultimately joined the study -- 47 in the United States and 21 in
countries in Europe and Asia." (emphasis added)
There were 60 trial sites and 13 subsites in the United States (45 sites), Denmark (8),
the United Kingdom (5), Greece (4), Germany (3), Korea (2), Mexico (2), Spain (2), Japan (1),
and Singapore (1). Eligible patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either
remdesivir or placebo. Randomization was stratified by study site and disease severity at
enrollment
"The preliminary results, disclosed at the White House by Anthony S. Fauci, fall short of
the magic bullet or cure But with no approved treatments for Covid-19, [Lie] Fauci said, it
will become the standard of care for hospitalized patients The data shows that remdisivir has
a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery," Fauci
said.
The government's first rigorous clinical trial of the experimental drug remdesivir as a
coronavirus treatment delivered mixed results to the medical community Wednesday -- but
rallied stock markets and raised hopes that an early weapon to help some patients was at
hand.
The preliminary results, disclosed at the White House by Anthony Fauci, chief of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which led the placebo-controlled trial
found that the drug accelerated the recovery of hospitalized patients but had only a marginal
benefit in the rate of death.
Fauci's remarks boosted speculation that the Food and Drug Administration would seek
emergency use authorization that would permit doctors to prescribe the drug.
In addition to clinical trials, remdesivir has been given to more than 1,000 patients
under compassionate use. [also refers to the Gilead study published on April 10 in the
NEJM]
The study, involving [more than] 1,000 patients at 68 sites in the United States and
around the world (??) , offers the first evidence (??) from a large (??), randomized (??)
clinical study of remdesivir's effectiveness against COVID-19.
The NIH placebo test study provided "preliminary results". While the placebo trial test was
"randomized", the overall selection of patients at the 68 sites was not fully randomized. See
the full report.
May 22: The Fake Lancet Report on Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)
Immediately folllowing its publication, the media went into high gear, smearing the HCQ
cure, while applauding the NIH-NIASD report released on the same day.
Remdesivir, the only drug cleared to treat Covid-19, sped the recovery time of patients
with the disease, "It's a very safe and effective drug," said Eric Topol, founder and
director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. "We now have a definite first
efficacious drug for Covid-19, which is a major step forward and will be built upon with
other drugs, [and drug] combinations."
When the Lancet HCQ article by Bingham-Harvard was retracted on June 5, it was too late, it
received minimal media coverage. Despite the Retraction, the HCQ cure "had been killed".
June 29: Fauci Greenlight. The $1.6 Billion Remdesivir Contract with Gilead Sciences Inc
Dr. Anthony Fauci granted the "Greenlight" to Gilead Sciences Inc. on June 29, 2020.
The Report was largely funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
(NIAID) headed by Dr. Anthony Fauci and the National Institutes of Health (NIH).
The earlier Gilead study based on scanty test results published in the NEJM (April 10), of
53 cases (and 56 co-authors) was not highlighted. The results of this study had been questioned
by several prominent physicians and scientists.
Who will be able to afford Remdisivir? 500,000 doses of Remdesivir are envisaged at $3,200
per patient, namely
$1.6 billion (see the s
tudy by Elizabeth Woodworth )
If this contract is implemented as planned, it represents for Gilead Science Inc. and the
recipient US private hospitals and clinics a colossal amount of money.
[error in above title according to HHS: $3200]
According to The Trump Administration's HHS Secretary Alex Azar (June 29, 2020):
NEVER
MISS THE NEWS THAT MATTERS MOST
ZEROHEDGE DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX
Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories.
"To the extent possible, we want to ensure that a ny American patient who needs remdesivir
can get it . [at $3200] The Trump Administration is doing everything in our power to learn
more about life-saving therapeutics for COVID-19 and secure access to these options for the
American people."
The Lancet study (published on May 22) was intended to undermine the legitimacy of
Hydroxychloroquine as an effective cure to Covid-19, with a view to sustaining the $1.6 billion
agreement between the HHS and Gilead Sciences Inc. on June 29th. The legitmacy of this
agreement rested on the May 22 NIH-NIAID study in the NEJM which was considered
"preliminary".
What Dr. Fauci failed to acknowledge is that Chloroquine had been "studied" and tested
fifteen years ago by the CDC as a drug to be used against coronavirus infections. And that
Hydroxychloroquine has been used recently in the treatment of Covid-19 in several
countries.
According to the Virology Journal (2005) " Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS
coronavirus infection and spread". It was used in the SARS-1 outbreak in 2002. It had the
endorsement of the CDC.
HCQ is not only effective, it is "inexpensive" when compared to Remdesivir, at an estimated
"$3120 for a US Patient with private insurance".
Below are excerpts of an interview of Harvard's Professor Mehra (who undertook the May 22
Lancet study) with France Soir published immediately following the publication of the Lancet
report (prior to its Retraction).
Dr. Mandeep Mehra: In our study, it is fairly obvious that the lack of benefit and the
risk of toxicity observed for hydroxychloroquine are fairly reliable. [referring to the May
22 Lancet study]
France Soir: Do you have the data for Remdesivir?
MM: Yes, we have the data, but the number of patients is too small for us to be able to
conclude in one way or another.
FS: As you know, in France, there is a pros and cons battle over hydroxychloroquine which
has turned into a public health issue even involving the financial lobbying of pharmaceutical
companies. Why not measure the effect of one against the other to put an end to all
speculation?
MM: In fact, there is no rational basis for testing Remdesivir versus hydroxychloroquine.
On the one hand, Remdesivir has shown that there is no risk of mortality and that there is a
reduction in recovery time. On the other hand, for hydroxychloroquine it is the opposite: it
has never been shown any advantage and most studies are small or inconclusive In addition,
our study shows that there are harmful effects.
It would therefore be difficult and probably unethical to compare a drug with demonstrated
harmfulness to a drug with at least a glimmer of hope.
FS: You said that there is no basis for testing or comparing Remdesivir with
hydroxychloroquine, do you think you have done everything to conclude that hydroxychloroquine
is dangerous?
MM: Exactly.
All we are saying is that once you have been infected (5 to 7 days after) to the point of
having to be hospitalized with a severe viral load, the use of hydroxychloroquine and its
derivative is not effective.
The damage from the virus is already there and the situation is beyond repair. With this
treatment [HCQ] it can generate more complications
FS Mandeep Mehra declared that he had no conflict of interest with the laboratories and
that this study was financed from the endowment funds of the professor's chair.
He participated in a conference sponsored by Gilead in early April 2020 as part of the
Covid-19 debate.
- France Soir, translated by the author, emphasis added, May 23, 2020)
In Annex, see the followup article by France Soir published after the scam surrounding the
data base of Dr. Mehra's Lancet report was revealed.
Concluding Remarks
Lies and Corruption to the nth Degree involving Dr. Anthony Fauci, "The Boston Connection"
and Gilead Sciences Inc.
The Gilead Sciences Inc. Remdesivir study (50+ authors) was published in the New England
Journal of Medicine (April 10, 2020).
It was followed by the NIH-NIAID Remdesivir
for the Treatment of Covid-19 -- Preliminary Report on May 22, 2020 in the NEJM. And on
that same day, May 22, the "fake report" on Hydroxychloroquine by BWH-Harvard Dr. Mehra was
published by The Lancet.
Harvard Medical School and the BWH bear responsibility for having hosted and financed the
fake Lancet report on HCQ coordinated by Dr. Mandeep Mehra.
Is there conflict of interest? BWH was simultaneously involved in a study on Remdesivir in
contract with Gilead Sciences, Inc.
While the Lancet report coordinated by Harvard's Dr. Mehra was retracted, it nonetheless
served the interests of Gilead Sciences Inc.
It is important that an independent scientific and medical assessment be undertaken,
respectively of the Gilead Sciences Inc New England Journal of Medicine (NEMJ) peer reviewed
study (April 10, 2020) as well as the NIH-NIAID study also published in the NEJM (May 22,
2020).
* * *
ANNEX
Retraction by France Soir
The fraud concerning the Lancet Report was revealed in early June.
France Soir in a subsequent article (June 5, 2020) points to the Boston Connection: La
connexion de Boston , namely the insiduous relationship between Gilead Sciences Inc and
Professor Mehra, Harvard Medical School as well as the two related Boston based hospitals
involved.
The often evasive answers produced by Dr Mandeep R. Mehra, a physician specializing in
cardiovascular surgery and professor at Harvard Medical School, did not produce confidence,
fueling doubt instead about the integrity of this retrospective study and its results.
However, the reported information that Dr. Mehra had attended a conference sponsored by
Gilead – producer of remdesivir, a drug in direct competition with hydroxychloroquine
(HCQ) – early in April called for further investigation
It is important to keep in mind that Dr. Mandeep Mehra has a practice at the Brigham and
Women's Hospital (BWH) in Boston.
That study relied on the shared medical records of 8,910 patients in 169 hospitals around
the world, also by Surgisphere.
Funding for the study was "Supported by the William Harvey Chair in Cardiovascular
Medicine at Brigham and Women's Hospital. The development and maintenance of the
collaborative surgical outcomes database was funded by Surgisphere."
The study published on May 22 sought to evaluate the efficacy or otherwise of chloroquine
and hydroxychloroquine, alone or in combination with a macrolide antibiotic.
It is therefore noteworthy that within 3 weeks, 2 large observational retrospective
studies on large populations – 96,032 and 8,910 patients – spread around the
world were published in two different journals by Dr. Mehra, Dr. Desai and other co-authors
using the database of Surgisphere, Dr. Desai's company.
These two practising physicians and surgeons seem to have an exceptional working capacity
associated with the gift of ubiquity.
The date of May 22 is also noteworthy because on the very same day, the date of the
publication in The Lancet of the highly accusatory study against HCQ, another study was
published in the New England Journal of Medicine concerning the results of a clinical trial
of remdesivir.
In the conclusion of this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, "remdesivir
was superior to placebo in shortening the time to recovery in adults hospitalized with
Covid-19 and evidence of lower respiratory tract infection."
Concretely: on the same day, May 22nd, one study demeaned HCQ in one journal while another
claimed evidence of attenuation on some patients through remdesivir in another journal.
It should be noted that one of the main co-authors, Elizabeth "Libby"* Hohmann, represents
one of the participating hospitals, the Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, also
affiliated with Harvard Medical School, as is the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston,
where Dr. Mandeep Mehra practices.
Coincidence, probably.
Upon further investigation, we discovered that the first 3 major clinical trials on
Gilead's remdesivir were conducted by these two hospitals:
"While COVID-19 continues to circle the globe with scientists following on its trail,
Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) are leading the
search for effective treatment.
"Both hospitals are conducting clinical trials of remdesivir."
MGH has joined what the National Institute of Health (NIH) describe as the
first clinical trial in the United States of an experimental treatment for COVID-19,
sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of NIH . MGH is
currently the only hospital in New England to participate in this trial, according to a list
of sites shared by the hospital.
" It's a gigantic undertaking, with patients registered in some 50 sites across the
country, getting better .
"The NIH trial, which can be adapted to evaluate other treatments, aims to determine
whether the drug relieves the respiratory problems and other symptoms of COVID-19, helping
patients leave hospital earlier.**
As a reminder, the NIAID/NIH is led by Antony Fauci, a staunch opponent of HCQ.
Coincidence, probably.
" At the Brigham, two additional trials initiated by Gilead , the drug developer, will
determine whether it alleviates symptoms in patients with moderate to severe illness over
five- and ten-days courses. These trials will also be randomized, but not placebo controlled,
and will include 1,000 patients at sites worldwide. Those patients, noted Francisco Marty,
MD, Brigham physician and study co-investigator, will likely be recruited at an unsettlingly
rapid clip."
As a result, the first major clinical trials on remdesivir launched on March 20, whose
results are highly important for Gilead, are being led by the MGH and BWH in Boston,
precisely where Dr. Mehra, the main author of the May 22nd HCQ trial, is practising.
Small world! Coincidence, again, probably.
Dr. Marty at BWH expected to have results two months later. Indeed, in recent days,
several US media outlets have reported Gilead's announcements of positive results from the
remdesivir clinical trials in Boston.:
"Encouraging results from a new study published Wednesday on remdesivir for the treatment
of patients with COVID-19.**
Brigham and Dr. Francisco Marty worked on this study, and he says the results show that
there is no major difference between treating a patient with a five-day versus a 10-day
regimen.
"Gilead Announces Results of Phase 3 Remdesivir Trial in Patients with Moderate
COVID-19
– One study shows that the 5-day treatment of remdesivir resulted in significantly
greater clinical improvement compared to treatment with the standard of care alone
– The data come on top of the body of evidence from previous studies demonstrating
the benefits of remdesivir in hospitalized patients with IDVOC-19
"We now have three randomized controlled trials demonstrating that remdesivir improved
clinical outcomes by several different measures," Gilead plans to submit the complete data
for publication in a peer-reviewed journal in the coming weeks .
These results announced by Gilead a few days after the May 22 publication of the study in
the Lancet demolishing HCQ, a study whose main author is Dr. Mehra, are probably again a
coincidence.
So many coincidences adds up to coincidences? Really ?
Three UK organizations have released new reports advising people to get enough vitamin D,
either through sunlight or supplements, as a precaution against the novel coronavirus.
Several previous studies have linked vitamin D deficiency to higher risk of severe
coronavirus infection.
However, there's not yet sufficient evidence to fully understand if the nutrient plays a
causal role in preventing the disease, although it has been shown to support a healthy immune
system.
While there's still no evidence that vitamin D can cure or prevent the coronavirus, three
major health organizations in the UK are advising people to ensure they get enough vitamin D,
from the sun or supplements, to be on the safe side.
In the meantime, however, these organizations advise a stronger emphasis on meeting the
current recommended vitamin D intake, not only as a precaution against coronavirus, but for
general health too.
Vitamin D is important for health, and might even stave off some
illnesses
Vitamin D is an essential nutrient for health, including the immune system.
Normally, humans can produce vitamin D naturally through direct exposure to sunlight -- we
also get vitamin D in certain foods, like eggs, fatty fish, and beef liver. In total, the UK
recommends people get 10 micrograms of vitamin D per day; the US recommendation is slightly
higher, 15 micrograms for most people, and 20 micrograms for those over 70.
Spending too much time indoors, whether in the colder winter months or in quarantine, can
potentially put you at risk of a vitamin D deficiency. Not enough of the nutrient is directly
linked to muscle, tooth, and bone health issues, according to the recent Royal Society
report.
That could be a problem when it comes to illness -- there's some evidence that a lack of
vitamin D is linked to infections, particularly in the respiratory tract, according to the
Scientific
Advisory Commission on Nutrition report.
But there's no evidence showing a direct
cause link between vitamin D and better coronavirus outcomes
However, while COVID-19 (the disease caused by the novel coronavirus) does attack the
respiratory system, there's no evidence vitamin D can cure or prevent the illness.
Several previous
studies have made a link between coronavirus outcomes and vitamin D deficiency -- however,
that research has included other variables that could explain the number and severity of
COVID-19 cases, and the research is far from showing a causal link.
Previous
research has cautioned consumers about exaggerated claims about vitamin D and the
coronavirus, particularly with regard to supplements or extremely high doses through an IV: too
much vitamin D can can cause a toxic buildup of calcium and lead to kidney issues,
according to the Mayo Clinic .
As such, there's still much more research to be done on the implications of vitamin D for
different coronavirus outcomes.
Charles Bangham, professor of immunology at Imperial College London and co-author of the
Royal Society paper, told the Financial Times that
Vitamin D deficiency could in part explain why people with darker skin tones have been
hardest-hit by the coronavirus. Black and brown people have more melanin that blocks UV rays
from the sun, so naturally-producing the nutrient from sunlight takes longer for people with
darker skin.
Copper metal has antimicrobial properties and can kill germs through direct contact.
The metal has been used to coat high-touch surfaces like door handles, surfaces in hospitals, and even personal items such as
masks.
However, copper isn't a cure-all, and it takes time and direct contact to destroy contaminants, so it might not always be the
best solution for preventing viral infection, according to research.
As the US begins to tentatively return to business, despite the novel coronavirus still lurking among the population, any
potential protection has become a hot commodity.
Copper metal,
used
in products
such as door handles and key rings, is being touted as one such solution, advertised as killing the virus on
contact.
But before you click "buy" on those Instagram ads for copper patches billed as "natural hygienic germ stoppers," it's important
to distinguish between what copper is and isn't capable of doing against the virus.
It may help against germs in some instances, but it's not a panacea for prevention, since the coronavirus can still live on
copper surfaces for hours. And it's certainly no substitute for other precautions, according to Dr. Miryam Wahrman, biology
professor at William Paterson University and author of "
The
Hand Book: Surviving in a Germ-Filled World
."
"From what we're dealing with now, I don't think there's a lot of evidence to support the usefulness of copper in terms of
reducing infections," Wahrman told Insider.
"Germ-killing" ads include everything from copper discs and stickers to cell phone cases, bracelets and socks
There is a huge variety of copper products sold as "prevention tools," but they fall into four general categories.
There are wearables, such as face masks, but also tee-shirts laced with copper, and jewelry, which vendors claim "self-sanitize"
if they come into contact with contagious particles.
Then there are "sanitizers," which are bars or discs made of or coated in copper. These are designed to be rubbed on your hands
or other objects in order to sanitize them.
Touch-tools, the third category, can vary widely, but picture something that looks like bottle opener or key. You might use these
to open doors, push buttons, or even tap on touchscreens instead of directly interesting with those potentially germy surfaces.
Finally, there are copper-coated versions of everyday items you touch frequently, such as cellphone cases and door handles. The
advantage of these over their ordinary counterparts is that germs (including coronavirus) can't survive as long on copper as on
surfaces like plastic and other types of metal.
Copper can kill bacteria, but it's less effective against viruses
"Copper is good as an antimicrobial against certain types of bacteria but when it comes to viruses, that's a whole different
ballgame because viruses are not living cells," she said.
An April 2020 study in the
New
England Journal of Medicine
found copper is inhospitable for the novel coronavirus as well, as the virus has a much shorter
lifespan on copper than on other surfaces such cloth, plastic, or even other metals.
That's important for environments where a lot of potential viral and bacterial particles are present, such as hospitals. A
2016
study
found that using copper components in hospitals could help prevent patients from contracting other infections while
hospitalized. According to the study, copper surfaces reduced the infection rate of patients by 58% (from 8.1% to 3.4%), and
reduced the viral load on surfaces by 83%.
The soap, not the metal on the sink, is what really helps prevent viral contamination.
Maryna
Andriichenko/Getty Images
Most copper products do nothing more than lull you into a false sense of security, experts say
Touch-tools, which you can use to open doors, push buttons or otherwise interact with high-touch surfaces, might help by creating
a barrier between contagions and your hand, but only if you keep the tool clean, too. If you're not careful to do that, this
protective touch tool could simply be lulling you into feeling you're protected, when you're not.
"The positive thing is, you're touching fewer surfaces," Wahrman said. "But then you're going to come into contact with the part
that's been touching surfaces when you put it back in your purse or your pocket. It's going to give you a false sense of
confidence and won't occur to you that you've actually transferred germs to yourself and your home."
As an antimicrobial surface, copper could potentially still slow the spread of infection. But experts say it's highly unlikely
that, even in that unlikely scenario, it wouldn't instantly kill coronavirus germs.
"The suggestion that you can rub these items on your hands and that's going to keep you healthy, that's not scientifically
supported, especially for viruses," Wahrman said.
And face masks containing copper might be even less helpful, since in order for it to be effective, the copper needs to come into
direct contact with the virus. Copper-infused cloth would only work if the virus penetrates the fabric, defeating the purpose of
the mask in the first place.
"The face mask is a great barrier. They have a tight fiber so that they do block a lot of the viral particles and blocking them
is key," Wahrman said. "If the viral passes through the mask, it's not going to interact with the metal anyway, so it's not going
to make a difference."
Copper might help on surfaces over time, but it can't prevent droplets direct from another person
None of these uses of copper address the most common form of contagious for the novel coronavirus, which is airborne infectious
directly from person to person.
"The big problem with the coronavirus is that it travels in droplets from one person to another who inhales it and that's how
most of the infections are happening. So there's no real way to get copper involved," Wahrman said.
So, while copper could have some promising applications, particularly in high-risk settings such as hospitals, it's not a
cure-all for the average person, and it can't replace traditional disinfectants, hand sanitizer, or good old fashioned soap and
water, according to Wahrman.
"The original advice that's tried and true is wash your hands with soap and water or use alcohol based hand sanitizer, and you've
really reduced the risk and reduced the germ load," she said.
Wearing a mask, washing your hands frequently, and maintaining social distancing are still your best bet against slowing the
spread of the virus, per the
CDC's
advice
.
Perhaps the scariest numbers in microbiology relate to pathogenic microorganisms.
Worldwide, 16 million people die from infectious disease every year, and many of these
deaths are preventable. Approximately one in every 12 individuals, or 500 million people
worldwide, is living with chronic viral hepatitis, and the estimated number of new
chlamydial infections per year is approximately 50 million, more than the population of
South Korea. The bacterium Clostridium botulinum produces a toxin so potent that 3 grams
would be enough to kill the population of the United Kingdom and 400 grams would kill
everyone on the planet.
In total, there are ∼1,400 known species of human pathogens (including viruses,
bacteria, fungi, protozoa and helminths), and although this may seem like a large number,
human pathogens account for much less than 1% of the total number of microbial species on
the planet. On this point, ignoring questions about what actually constitutes a species,
estimates for the total number of microbial species vary wildly, from as low as 120,000 to
tens of millions and higher. Part of the reason for this large range is that we have only
sequenced 1 × 10−22% of the total DNA on Earth (although the Earth Microbiome
Project should improve this dramatically to 1 × 10−20% in the next 3 years).
This means that the fraction of microbial diversity that we have sampled to date is
effectively zero, a nice abstract entity to end on.
Have you ever wondered how Sarv-Cov-2 made it to discovery? Or how humans have managed to
survive up to now?
Airborne ballpark math: we breathe about 500 l/h when sitting down and up to 10 times that
when exercising. When someone is ill and pushing 500 l/h of breath into a room with a
halftime of say 4 hours then after about that time this person maintains roughly 2 cubic
meters of breath in that room. For a room of 100 cubic meter that would be 2% of the air. So
during a workday you'd be breathing the breath of that other person at a dilution of the
order of 1%. Air conditioning recycles the air (maybe not completely I don't know the ratio)
so it is not ventilation where the air is replaced. Maybe airco can pick off a large part of
the particles. But that is the idea, assuming various losses and a large room you would still
breathing someone elses breath diluted by a factor thousand.
I haven't found data on it but I suspect half time in cool air is considerately longer.
What talking and shouting then does is increase the amount of virus material in the air but
there will be a huge increase at short distance and an unknown increase at large
distance.
With this reasoning the question is not whether the virus can travel through air but how easy
it is. Long halflife in air increases the chance.
High threshold of number of virus particles to have an effective transmission would decrease
the chance. So I would start by measuring the amount of material we can push into the air in
small droplets. How much variation is there.
So meat processing: cold air and to save energy ventilation is not good. Air is recycled a
lot. People doing physical labour a whole day, not sitting. Sounds tricky independently of
the hygiene question of dealing with industrially forcegrown animals
There is no exit strategy for this haphazard insanity. Once this over-reaction to a fairly
innocuous infectious agent was accepted as being necessary, there's no way to ever declare
reversion to normalcy.
In my opinion, rather than endlessly focussing on this not particularly interesting virus,
coming up with creative signboards and banners restricting movement, wrecking people's
livelihoods and painting crosses on the pavement where one must stand, we should have been onto
a more obvious problem by now. What if this HAD been a deadly pathogen? Why aren't we prepared
to quickly open special quarantine/treatment centers, disconnected from regular hospitals? And
what are we going to do about it?
This little rehearsal showed how unprepared we are should a real existential threat
arise.
But no, we must instead continue to waste our time, money and effort in playacting that this is
a real biological crisis, and creating an actual breakdown in our way of life. We must continue
to double down, because if we take ever more extreme action about corona, that will prove that
the idiocy we've demonstrated thus far was necessary ..right?
[Hide MORE]
Given the way corona virus is being handled, one would think we don't realize that people die
quite regularly, especially when they're in bad condition. Now, we're practically demanding
that nobody should die from catching a microbe – that we should stay home and hold our
breath until everyone is guaranteed to survive. Since when have we ever believed that? Is that
how we built civilization? The civilization that we're now destroying?
There's little reason for insulin-sensitive people – with healthy immune status and
without metabolic disease – to stay home, wear a mask or 'social distance' themselves.
Since they won't be getting seriously ill, their staying home wouldn't help 'flatten the curve'
of sick people overburdening the healthcare system (as usual, to the expense of all of us). On
the contrary, active healthy people can contribute something to the economy.
The main benefit of herd immunity is that it will allow the country to function again. And
that would be good for everyone, healthy and sickly alike. The metabolically/immunologically
compromised will be vulnerable to catching the corona virus from anyone who's contracted it and
is temporarily contagious, no matter whether the carrier's general health is good or poor. And
that's the same fix that people with poor immune function are in, always and everywhere. The
answer for protecting these most vulnerable people from COVID – which is only one of the
many dangers to their health that they face – can be one of two things; the best one
being that they start eating right. And/or, we can build as much equipment and medical
facilities, where they're most needed, as they may require. Either of these solutions is much
more viable, less disruptive and less expensive than what we're doing now. And with either
solution, healthier people would no longer be punished for possessing normal human
vitality.
While governments, health agencies and scientists take steps to upgrade the availability of
care facilities, equipment and treatments, individuals should follow this
CORONA VIRUS PROTOCOL
Part A (Everyone)
Begin a therapeutic diet to quickly upgrade and regulate the immune system. This consists of,
wholly or mostly:
Home cooked meat, oily fish, eggs (especially yolks), animal fat, bone broth, collagen or
gelatin, and liver, and the elimination of corn, soy, canola, safflower, sunflower, grapeseed
and rice bran oils as well as flours, sugar and prepared foods.
Part B (those most at risk for COVID complications- individuals with high BMI or chronic
health issues, or taking prescription medications, etc.)
While following the part A protocol, take reasonable precautions to limit your exposure to
possible infection from others, such as limiting time or wearing a mask when in close contact
with other people.
@john
cronk with this knowledge is talk about it. Lots of talk, little action. The only active
pieces on the board are hopping around and trying to do a cultural revolution and proceeding
with an absolute poverty of energy.
This might be the most sedentary collapse ever. The world is taking a hard turn towards a
prolonged dark age and for the lack of reaction it seems people are just going with the flow.
Welcome to the future. A little bit of 1984, a heavy dose of Idiocracy, and a whole bunch of
pudgy kids trying to live out their Harry Potter headcanon.
Nevermind all the attention given to "Black Lives" while Black voices (Lest we forget the
'Shaun King is transracial' scandal of not long ago) are shut out of the conversation
Nonsense reigns!
"... The study analyzed 2,541 patients hospitalized among the system's six hospitals between March 10 and May 2 and found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine died while 26% of those who did not receive the drug died. ..."
"... Among all patients in the study, there was an overall in-hospital mortality rate of 18%, and many who died had underlying conditions that put them at greater risk, according to Henry Ford Health System. Globally, the mortality rate for hospitalized patients is between 10% and 30%, and it's 58% among those in the intensive care unit or on a ventilator." Detroit News ..."
"... A long "take down" of Fauci: https://www.unz.com/audio/kbarrett_ken-mccarthy-tony-fauci-is-corrupt-to-the-core/ ..."
"... This is not Fauci's first rodeo. He's been pumping hysteria for 36 years. He always gets it wrong. He was wrong about swine flu. He was wrong about bird flu. He was wrong about Zika. He was wrong about Ebola. He wildly exaggerated AIDS. And he always is wrong in the favor of pharmaceutical companies. And he's always wrong in favor of 'we've got to develop a vaccine now. We have to throw out all the rules. ..."
"... Observational studies are never the equivalent of double-blind randomized studies; but there can still provide important and fare more readily obtained early information about these connections and conditions. ..."
"... This stuff is hard. There are lots of variations in patient populations and treatment protocols. We have to consider doses, concomitant meds (such as azithromycin), patient status at time of treatment, age, and, comorbidities. ..."
"... the recently halted NIH trial was randomized, double-blinded; this was in a hospital setting. The prophylactic trial reported at the beginning of June in NEJM (author Boulware) was also randomized, double-blinded; this was in a prophylactic setting. ..."
"A Henry Ford Health System study shows the controversial anti-malaria drug
hydroxychloroquine helps lower the death rate of COVID-19 patients, the Detroit-based health
system said Thursday.
Officials with the Michigan health system said the study found the drug "significantly"
decreased the death rate of patients involved in the analysis.
The study analyzed 2,541 patients hospitalized among the system's six hospitals between
March 10 and May 2 and found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine died while 26% of
those who did not receive the drug died.
Among all patients in the study, there was an overall in-hospital mortality rate of 18%, and
many who died had underlying conditions that put them at greater risk, according to Henry Ford
Health System. Globally, the mortality rate for hospitalized patients is between 10% and 30%,
and it's 58% among those in the intensive care unit or on a ventilator." Detroit News
There will be no accountability: The b-stards have set the standards.
https://www.bcazlaw.com/surgical-mishaps/ Medical malpractice is a legal term used to describe a medical professional's failing to
uphold the acceptable standard of care in a situation. Doctors must adhere to accepted
medical community standards concerning treatment methods and technique, and failing to
do so can leave them liable for any resulting damages.
https://www.lynchlawyers.com/blog/hospital-medical-malpractice/ When a patient is under a hospitals care, the facility must operate at a level that meets the
medical community's standards for treating patients. This means the hospital or its
staff members cannot cause the patient harm as a result of negligence.
https://www.fortheinjured.com/blog/common-medical-errors/ When a doctor or medical facility's
failure to meet these standards results in a
patient's injury or death, the at-fault party can be held liable for medical malpractice
.
https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/map/TheCommunityStandard.html The community standard is the older standard and reflects the traditional deference of the
law toward physicians. It is based on what physicians as a group do in a given circumstance.
The community standard requires that the patient be told what other physicians in the same
community would tell a patient in the same or similar circumstances. "Community" refers both
to the geographic community and to the specialty (intellectual community) of the
physician.
It'll be 37 years this year he's had the same job in the federal bureaucracy.
There are two million people getting a paycheck from the federal government as
employees. Who do you think the third highest paid employee in the entire federal
bureaucracy is? It's Tony Fauci.
So just to sum all this up: This is not Fauci's first rodeo. He's been pumping hysteria
for 36 years. He always gets it wrong. He was wrong about swine flu. He was wrong about
bird flu. He was wrong about Zika. He was wrong about Ebola. He wildly exaggerated AIDS.
And he always is wrong in the favor of pharmaceutical companies. And he's always wrong in
favor of 'we've got to develop a vaccine now. We have to throw out all the rules.
And his wife is Christine Grady, chief of the Department of Bioethics of the National
Institute of Health and the head of the section on Human Subject Research. She is the
person that makes decisions on what's ethical to do with human subjects. That's his
wife.
Uncharted research: areas where anti-malarial drugs are sold widely over the counter - in
malaria prone parts of the world - eg: Central America, SEA and Pacific Islands. How do their
covid rates relate to these specific localities (not just generalized country numbers), where
ongoing prophylactic sales of OTC anti-malaria drugs are most prevalent?
Why does the CDC travel and tourism website info still recommend taking anti-malarial
drugs, when the other hand of our deep state bureaucrats are screaming these drugs will kill
you?
Observational studies are never the equivalent of double-blind randomized studies; but
there can still provide important and fare more readily obtained early information about
these connections and conditions.
No comment/s needed perhaps. But deliciously anticipated. Here, from the Committee, and
especially from the MSM. Even if only silence. Because "silence is really violence" in this
case.
https://www.yourdailyshakespeare.com/2020/06/08/the-world-upside-down/ And here is an example, a reported 'case-study'. A prince of Persia had melancholia and
suffered from the delusion of being a cow. He would moo like a cow, crying "Kill me so that a
good stew may be made of my flesh," and would never eat anything. Avicenna was persuaded to
treat the case and sent a message to the patient, asking him to be happy as the butcher was
coming to slaughter him. The sick man rejoiced. When Avicenna approached the prince with a
knife in his hand, he asked, "Where is the cow so I may kill it."
The patient then mooed like a cow to indicate where he was. He was then laid on the ground
for slaughter. When Avicenna approached the patient pretending to slaughter him, he said,
"The cow is too lean and not ready to be killed. He must be fed properly and I will kill it
when it becomes healthy and fat. The patient was then offered food, which he ate eagerly and
gradually gained strength, got rid of his delusion, and was completely cured.
How relevant may be the Avicennian case study to the current dynamics of the pandemic I will
leave it to my possible and patient readers to decide.
Dr. Marc Siegel a medical correspondent for Foxnews told T. Carlson weeks ago that an
emergency treatment of this drug saved the life of his 96 year old father who was at the
point of death, cured him overnight in fact.
It is a fact that cancer drugs are not uniformly effective in all patients.
The causes must be sought in the genotypes of the patients.
The differential response as well as effectiveness are not reasons to discard a
therapy.
In further news on COVID-19 Treatments I have 2 items to report:
First one:
The 3-drug mixture of Azittomycin, Naproxen, and prednisolone (oral or injectable) have
been used successfully for reduction of the inflammation of respiratory system.
3 systematic trials have been undertaken and results were conclusive in expediting faster
recovery.
Second one:
Clinical trials in Iran (in Masih Daneshvari hospital) – indicated 100% cure of
COVID-19 in 20 patients using a combination of ReciGen and Cultera (sic?) which is an AIDS
drug.
A second group of patients – 152 – had a reduction in mortality of 20% as
compared to those who were only receiving Cultera (sic.?)
This stuff is hard. There are lots of variations in patient populations and treatment
protocols. We have to consider doses, concomitant meds (such as azithromycin), patient status
at time of treatment, age, and, comorbidities.
A big difference: the Ford study was not randomized, not double-blinded. They used a
statistical technique to try to make the groups comparable on factors believed to be
relevant, but this is after fact. (It's a nice technique, I've used it myself, but it doesn't
magically solve all of the difficulties of retrospective analysis.)
In contrast, the recently halted NIH trial was randomized, double-blinded; this was in a
hospital setting. The prophylactic trial reported at the beginning of June in NEJM (author
Boulware) was also randomized, double-blinded; this was in a prophylactic setting.
Hydroxychloroquine is the active ingredient in the tonic portion of gin and tonics, which
I've been drinking for prophylactic purposes since the pandemic began.
"The current work suggests that while the G614 variant may be more infectious, it is not
more pathogenic. There is a hope that as SARS-CoV-2 infection spreads, the virus might become
less pathogenic,"
"... Alan MacLeod is a Staff Writer for MintPress News. After completing his PhD in 2017 he published two books: Bad News From Venezuela: Twenty Years of Fake News and Misreporting and Propaganda in the Information Age: Still Manufacturing Consent . He has also contributed to Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting , The Guardian , Salon , The Grayzone , Jacobin Magazine , Common Dreams the American Herald Tribune and The Canary . ..."
alifornia-based pharmaceutical giant Gilead Sciences has
announced that a five-day course of its antiviral drug Remdesivir -- shown in tests to
effectively fight COVID-19 -- will cost $3,120 to Americans with health insurance and $2,340 to
those on Medicaid. Yet
research published in April calculated that the drug could be produced at a profit for as
little as $0.93 per day.
The study, led by Dr. Andrew Hill from the Department of Translational Medicine, University
of Liverpool, U.K., and published in the
Journal of Virus Eradication , found that a five-day course of lifesaving Remdesivir
could be mass-produced for less than the cost of a Subway sandwich. So cheap is the drug that
the saline solution and the syringe needed to administer it would be more costly.
MintPress spoke with Dr. Hill, who was dismayed by the company's announcement.
We are in a health emergency. We can't have a situation right now where people are unable
to access medicine because the prices are too high. Remdesivir is a drug that has had its
development costs paid for, in large part, by independent donors like governments and
ministries of health in China, the WHO, and the U.S. government. So why should a company be
making money in the middle of a pandemic by selling a drug which has largely been developed
independently of them?" he said.
News of the decision led to an explosion of public anger. "As Gilead charges $3,120 for its
COVID drug, Remdesivir, remember that the drug was developed with a $70,000,000 grant from the
federal government paid for by American taxpayers. Once again, Big Pharma is set to profit on
the people's dime," wrote former Secretary of Labor
Robert Reich. "This isn't healthcare. It's extortion," appeared to be the overwhelming sentiment
on social media.
Gilead itself, however, seemed not to share this sentiment. Indeed, its
press release on the subject positioned its decision as a selfless and magnanimous gesture
of corporate philanthropy. "We approached this with the aim of helping as many patients as
possible, as quickly as possible and in the most responsible way," said its CEO, Daniel O'Day,
adding that, "under normal circumstances" the company would have charged the public $12,000 per
patient.
"A new low"
Remdesivir is an intravenous antiviral drug that has been used to fight other coronaviruses
like SARS and MERS and has shown some effectiveness against Ebola. Although far from a miracle
treatment, studies have concluded that it aids
recovery, reducing the average hospital visit for COVID-19 patients from 15 days to 11 days
when compared to a placebo. Like with everything coronavirus-related, there is no absolute
scientific consensus. In late April, the WHO accidentally leaked a
Chinese study that suggested Remdesivir may not be as effective as Gilead claims it to be.
Nevertheless, the Trump administration has now bought
up the entire world's stock of the drug, effectively confiscating it and shutting out every
other country from the medicine.
"I've been working in medicine for 32 years and I have never seen anything like it. I've
never seen a country be that brazen. We have to work together. This could be a taste of the
future. They've tried to also do this with advanced orders of vaccines. Imagine if we had a 100
percent effective vaccine and it only went to Americans," Dr. Hill told MintPress
.
At the moment people don't quite understand the gravity of the decision that the American
government has made. This is a worldwide epidemic and we have got to remember that the
clinical trials of Remdesivir were not just conducted in the United States; they were
conducted around European and Chinese centers. Patients put themselves at risk to take part
in an experimental drug trial, and the gratitude we get as other countries after our people
were involved in these studies is to be shut out of the future supply of the drug?! It is
simply ethically unacceptable. I think there are serious questions to be answered. This is a
new low ground, unfortunately," he added.
Gilead has been under considerable public scrutiny of late. The company, which
announced profits of $5.4 billion last year, has increased its value by $15 billion since
the pandemic began. In December, MintPressreported
that it was being sued, accused of deliberately holding back a lifesaving HIV drug to extend
the profitability of their previous, inferior one. With shades of the Remdesivir announcement,
the drug is sold in Australia for $8 per month, but the company charges Americans around $2,000
for the same dosage. "Gilead has a long history of profiteering," said Dr. Hill. "Its CEO is a
billionaire and has been accused of tax avoidance; by keeping their intellectual property in
Ireland they avoided $10 billion in taxes in 2016 and they sell drugs for between 100 and 1,000
times the cost of production. And nobody is stopping them. I think this is a taste of things to
come if we don't have better controls on the pharmaceutical industry's excesses."
As of Wednesday morning, there have been 2.73 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the
United States, the six worst days for the virus in terms of infections all occurring in the
previous week.
Feature photo | A lab tech displays a package of the Remdesivir at the Eva Pharma Facility
in Cairo, Egypt June 29, 2020. Amr Abdallah | Reuters
"... Considering the evidence, the authors believe that soybean oil could increase the risk of Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, and autism. However, there is no concrete proof yet that soybean oil causes these conditions, since this research was conducted on male mice only. But mice are used as a model organism for human health for a reason, as a mammal species they have similar tissues and genetics to us, and it is reasonable to provisionally project some of the authors' health warnings onto humans. ..."
"... There is a genetically engineered form of soybean oil that has a lower linoleic acid (LA) content, and this form is healthier for the heart. The authors also fed mice this form to see whether the results would be any better, but the low-LA form had a similarly detrimental effect on the mice's brains. ..."
New research has shown that despite being marketed as a healthy alternative, soybean oil, America's most
popular oil, causes neurological changes in the brains of mice, and may contribute to autism and dementia
in humans.
Extracted from the seeds of soybeans and used in everything from fast food to animal feed and even baby
formula, soybean oil is easily the most widely consumed oil in the US, ubiquitous in the national
cuisine.
It's in McDonald's fries, Pizza Hut crust, and the
"healthy"
9-grain bread used for
your Subway sandwich.
A research team from University of California, Riverside has been studying the impact of soybean oil
for several years. They
previously
found that it induces diabetes and obesity in mice, hardly surprising given that vegetable
oils are high in saturated and unsaturated fatty acids. By now, most people know that eating too much
fried food is bad for your ticker.
But what is really shocking about their latest findings is the effect soybean oil seems to have on the
brain.
From Alzheimer's to autism
The
study
is published in Endocrinology, a scientific journal, and it shows that when soybean oil is fed
to mice it has major impact on their hypothalamus, an area of the brain crucial for regulating mood and
behaviour.
More worryingly, it even affected over 100 of the mice's genes, including one for controlling oxytocin,
the love and bonding hormone. Soybean-fed mice showed lower levels of oxytocin in the hypothalamus. Other
genes affected had to do with metabolic and hormone pathways, including the insulin pathway, synonymous
with diabetes. There was also upregulation of genes associated with anxiety, depression, and
schizophrenia.
Considering the evidence, the authors believe that soybean oil could increase the risk of Parkinson's
disease, Alzheimer's disease, and autism. However, there is no concrete proof yet that soybean oil causes
these conditions, since this research was conducted on male mice only. But mice are used as a model
organism for human health for a reason, as a mammal species they have similar tissues and genetics to us,
and it is reasonable to provisionally project some of the authors' health warnings onto humans.
Lead author Poonamjot Deol said:
"If there's one message I want people to take away, it's this:
reduce consumption of soybean oil."
Is the GM version better?
There is a genetically engineered form of soybean oil that has a lower linoleic acid (LA) content, and
this form is healthier for the heart. The authors also fed mice this form to see whether the results
would be any better, but the low-LA form had a similarly detrimental effect on the mice's brains.
It is produced from what are
called
Roundup Ready soybeans, designed for use with the signature product of bought-out agrochemical
firm Monsanto, which is embroiled in a controversy of its own.
Peter Andrews is an Irish science journalist and writer, based in London. He has a background in the life sciences, and graduated from the University of Glasgow with a degree in Genetics.
On Monday, Gilead disclosed its pricing plan for Gilead as it prepares to begin charging for
the drug at the beginning of next month (several international governments have already placed
orders). Given the high demand, thanks in part due to the breathless media coverage despite the
drug's still-questionable study data, Gilead apparently feels justified in charging $3,120 for
a patient getting the shorter, more common, treatment course, and $5,720 for the longer course
for more seriously ill patients. These are the prices for patients with commercial insurance in
the US, according to Gilead's official pricing plan.
As per usual, the price charged to those on government plans will be lower, and hospitals
will also receive a slight discount. Additionally, the US is the only developed country where
Gilead will charge two prices, according to Gilead CEO Daniel O'Day. In much of Europe and
Canada, governments negotiate drug prices directly with drugmakers (in the US, laws dictate
that drug makers must "discount" their drugs for Medicare and Medicaid plans).
But according to O'Day, the drug is priced "far below the value it brings" to the
health-care system.
However, we'd argue that this actually isn't true. Remdesivir was developed by Gilead to
treat Ebola, but the drug was never approved by the FDA for this use, which caused Gilead to
shelve the drug until COVID-19 presented another opportunity. Even before the first study had
finished, the company was already pushing propaganda about the promising nature of the drug.
Meanwhile, the CDC, WHO and other organizations were raising doubts about the effectiveness of
steroid medications.
Months later, the only study on the steroid dexomethasone, a cheap steroid that costs less
than $50 for a 100-dose regimen, has shown that dexomethasone is the only drug so far that has
proven effective at lowering COVID-19 related mortality. Remdesivir, despite the fact that it
has been tested in several high quality trials, has not.
So, why is the American government in partnership with Gilead still pushing this
questionable, and staggeringly expensive, medication on the public?
"My hunch is that by now doctors have learned much more about the disease's progression
(cytokine storm, blood clotting) and how to manage it."
I believe the UK is where the dexamethasone Study was done. Possibly more doctors are
using it. The Front-Line COVID-19 Critical Care Working Group have been pushing
corticosteroids as the main treatment in their MATH+ Protocol, and they believe the UK study
provides evidence that they are on the right track. Their Protocol specifically targets the
cytokine storm and they use heparin for the blood clots. Now if they can only get a
full-fledged trial going. Unfortunately their Web site doesn't provide much info about how
much traction they're getting promoting their Protocol.
The 1918 SF article proves that morons are morons no matter how many years have passed.
I'm sure there were such during the Black Plague. I sincerely hope the coronavirus mutates
before the second wave and starts killing all the younger people just to see their reaction
when they have to bear the brunt. Can't wait for all the "it's just the flu" BS from these
morons to dry up.
"... "Our genetic data confirm that blood group O is associated with a risk of acquiring Covid-19 that was lower than that in non-O blood groups, whereas blood group A was associated with a higher risk than non-A blood groups," the researchers wrote in their report. They found people with Type A blood had a 45% higher risk of becoming infected than people with other blood types, and people with Type O blood were just 65% as likely to become infected as people with other blood types. ..."
(CNN - June 18) A team of European scientists say they have found two genetic variations
that may show who is more likely to get very sick and die from coronavirus, and they say
they have also found a link to blood type.
Their findings, published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, point to a
possible explanation for why some people get so seriously ill with the virus, while most
barely show any symptoms at all.
They found people with Type A blood have a higher risk of catching coronavirus and of
developing severe symptoms, while people with Type O blood have a lower risk.
"Our genetic data confirm that blood group O is associated with a risk of acquiring
Covid-19 that was lower than that in non-O blood groups, whereas blood group A was
associated with a higher risk than non-A blood groups," the researchers wrote in their
report. They found people with Type A blood had a 45% higher risk of becoming infected than
people with other blood types, and people with Type O blood were just 65% as likely to
become infected as people with other blood types. ...
Genomewide Association Study of Severe Covid-19 with Respiratory Failure
By David Ellinghaus, Ph.D., Frauke Degenhardt, M.Sc., Luis Bujanda, M.D., Ph.D., Maria
Buti, M.D., Ph.D., Agustín Albillos, M.D., Ph.D., Pietro Invernizzi, M.D., Ph.D.,
Javier Fernández, M.D., Ph.D., Daniele Prati, M.D., Guido Baselli, Ph.D., Rosanna
Asselta, Ph.D., Marit M. Grimsrud, M.D., Chiara Milani, Ph.D., et al. for The Severe
Covid-19 GWAS Group
Abstract
BACKGROUND
There is considerable variation in disease behavior among patients infected with severe
acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus
disease 2019 (Covid-19). Genomewide association analysis may allow for the identification
of potential genetic factors involved in the development of Covid-19....
Coronavirus Causes Weaponized 'Tentacles' To Sprout From Infected Cells, Directly Inject
Virus Into New Ones
by Tyler Durden
Fri, 06/26/2020 - 19:25 The virus behind COVID-19 causes infected cells to sprout 'tentacles'
which allow the virus to attack several nearby cells at once - poking holes which allow the
disease to easily transfer inside.
This nightmare fuel was discovered by researchers led by the University of California, San
Francisco.
" There are long strings that poke holes in other cells and the virus passes through the
tube from cell to cell ," said UCSF's Director of the Quantitative Biosciences Institute,
Professor Nevan Krogan. " Our hypothesis is that these speed up infection. "
The images taken by scientists at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) laboratory in
the US and University of Freiburg in Germany will be published in the medical journal Cell on
Saturday.
Most viruses do not cause infected cells to grow these tentacles . Even those that do,
such as smallpox, do not have as many or the same type of branching as Sars-Cov-2, the virus
behind Covid-19. - FT
According to the report, the silver lining is that the tentacle discovery may pave the way
for a number of drugs to work against the disease - most of which were previously being used to
treat cancer.
"It totally makes sense there's an overlap in anticancer drugs and an antiviral effect,"
said Prof. Krogan, who added that cancers, HIV and SARS-CoV-2 are all searching for the
"Achilles heel of the cell."
Potential drugs include silmitasertib, made by Taiwan-based Senhwa Biosciences - which is
working with the NIH on trials in the US. The drug works by inhibiting the CK2 enzyme which is
used to build the tubes.
The drug is one of five which were found to be more effective against the virus than
Gilead's remdesivir , including FDA-approved Xospata (aka gilteritinib) made by Japan-based
Astellas Pharma, Eli Lily's FDA-approved abemaciclib (Verzenio) and ralimetinib, and dasatinib,
made by Bristol-Meyers Squibb.
Remember, the official narrative is that the virus - which specializes in infecting humans
and packs ultra-rare 'infection tentacles' - did not emerge from a Chinese biolab located at
'ground zero' for the pandemic, where scientists had previously come under international
scrutiny for conducting 'gain of function' experiments in which chimeric coronaviruses were genetically
engineered for the sole purpose of infecting humans.
Remember, the official narrative is that the virus - which specializes in infecting
humans and packs ultra-rare 'infection tentacles' - did not emerge from a Chinese biolab
located at 'ground zero' for the pandemic, where scientists had previously come under
international scrutiny for conducting 'gain of function' experiments in which chimeric
coronaviruses were genetically engineered for the sole purpose of infecting humans.
Well, the funny thing is that, despite all the hand-wringing histrionics of the Falun
Gong/Epoch Times cultists, the story of a "weaponized CCP virus" is still just a clickbait
fairy tale. The fact remains that there is zero evidence that the virus emerged from a
Chinese biolab. Zero. Nada. Null. The empty set.
But hey, US citizen society is articulated around monetization of conflicts (among other
things) and cannot do without it. This is how the US has killed the possibility of
debate.
Debate as a means of investigating truth requires to accept facts. In US citizenism,
admittance of facts is counter-balanced by denial of facts. Which one is better to
monetize?
When it comes to US citizens, it is always good to balance admittance with denial, trying
to figure out which one is the most profitable. US citizens always weigh whether it is more
profitable to deny or admit facts, and they usually choose profits over truth.
It is no critical thinking here, it is no education. It is US citizenism. If it is
profitable to deny facts, well, US citizens deny. And will keep denying until it is no longer
profitable.
You can apply this to all fields touched by US citizens. It never misses, because US
citizens nature is eternal.
Truth, justice, freedom: US motto.
JGResearch , 1 hour ago
It was made in Japan., and the U.K.
Japan's Demon Of BioWar Kawaoka Inserted HIV Force Multipliers Inside The Wuhan Virus - No
governments will ever state this truth. It would lead to war and even the Chinese do want
that. They want business back to normal. The Chinese are not so concern about some workers
and elders who are on the public welfare.
It is still a Bio-engineered virus, but it is from Veterinary labs that are not being
watched like Bio 4 labs, from second generation of Unit 731. Who knows bat and fish better
than anyone else, it is the Veterinary labs. Imperial Japanese have a long history with
China. For the most part, Suzuki's military-dominated cabinet favored continuing the war. For
the Japanese, surrender was unthinkable -- Japan had never been successfully invaded or lost
a war in its history, plus they were hit with two Atomic weapons. You think they forgot about
at that?
The dark side of microbiology finds its haven inside the dozens of veterinary schools
outside the authority of the WHO, CDC, NIH and equivalent professional supervisory bodies and
reporting-review systems.
Exhibit A: To summarize, a decade ago at his lab in Wisconsin with generous funding from
Japanese state institutions, Kawaoka was developing an "unstoppable flu", secretly derived
from an illegal exhumation of the Arctic frozen corpse of an Alaskan native who died in the
1918-19 influenza pandemic, which killed up to 80 million worldwide. We learned of Kawaoka's
reckless violations of science ethics from Robert Finnegan, former editor of the Jakarta
Post, who was tracking the theft of MERS and other virus samples from NAMRU-2 (U.S. Navy
Research Unit) by a senior local lab technician who personally smuggled the dangerous
materials to U Wisconsin.
Exhibit B is a 2011 research paper by Y. Kawaoka and two colleagues at his animal virology
lab at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, titled "HIV reverse-binding protein is essential
for influenza A virus replication and promotes genome-trafficking in late-stage infection".
Published in the Journal of Virology, September 2011, it's an admission of guilt for
preparing the emergence of the Wuhan contagion.
JGResearch , 1 hour ago
The original plan: The dilution of toxicity indicates the objective as being mild symptoms
diagnosed as a case of food poisoning. On a massive scale, a food poisoning scandal would
lead to the shut down of fisheries and aquaculture in a huge blow to national food
security.
However, what's so amazing about the Wuhan coronavirus was its regeneration after being
clipped of virulence-causing genes that intensify the pain of symptoms in its victims.
nCov2019 somehow reconstructed alternative sequences to replace the lopped-off gene sequence.
The Japanese ignore the morphogenetic fields of the virus.
Therein lies the rub. Prophetically, Kawaoka foresaw HIV acting in unexpected ways in
constructing new flu virions and their components, which likely explains how and why the
at-first relatively mild version bio-engineered Wuhan coronavirus was self-altered in its
third or fourth generation with highly lethal proteins, a spontaneous Gain of Function, which
transformed 2019-nCov into a raging killer.
This is exactly what occurred in early January when the Chinese government banned fishing
and consumption of fish along the entire 6,300 km (3,900 miles) length of the Yangtze
River.
I've read any number of articles from "experts" in the field who claim that this thing is
"engineered". The "experts" get very little play outside of a small echo chamber. I want to
know when anyone with any political clout will start shouting about it more broadly. Doesn't
seem likely.
I caught an episode of peak prosperity on youtube the other day and they were talking
about supercells and multiple nuclei. This makes sense. This virus behaves more like a
colonizing bacteria.
4Celts , 2 hours ago
What I was most disgusted by the " Task Force " presser today, was that the orchestrators
have noticed all of the pushback on the statistics showing the small demographic that was
most effected by this " virus . So , they put the maggot Fauci out there to say the " young "
who are asymptomatic were the cause of the " second wave " , and they should really curb
their youthful bravado and instead be very mindful that " they " could spread this to the
immunodeficient , both the elderly and the child with cancer. A totally spineless, and
despicable tact.
FrankDrakman , 2 hours ago
In Ontario, 1.3 million have been tested for the virus. Outside of nursing homes, only 960
have died.
Can you divide 960 by 1.3 million, "boob"? Let me help you.. 130,000 is 10%, 13,000 is 1%,
and 1,300 is 0.1%
960 is .078%. In other words, you have 99.92% chance of surviving this bug. Wow, 'far more
deadly than originally thought', indeed.
"11 May -- High risk of COVID-19 death for minority ethnic groups is a troubling
mystery:"
"People who are not white face a substantially higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than
do white people -- and pre-existing health conditions and socioeconomic factors explain
only a small part of the higher risk."
"In the most sweeping study of its kind, Ben Goldacre at the University of Oxford, UK,
and his colleagues examined the medical records of more than 17 million residents of
England (E. Williamson et al. Preprint at medRxiv http://doi.org/dt9z; 2020). The analysis,
which has not yet been peer reviewed, showed that medical conditions such as diabetes are
linked to a higher risk of death from the new coronavirus."
"But the prevalence of such conditions in people who belong to minority ethnic groups
plays only a small part in the heightened risk, as does the prevalence of social
disadvantages such as low income. The researchers say that there is an urgent need for
better measures to protect people in minority ethnic groups from the disease."
This is from Nature daily Covid 19 update. Which is good reading and covers vaccines,
and anti body treatments which may be used by Autumn. See ELI Lilly and Regenron
debvelopments.
Many Latinos Couldn't Stay Home. Now Virus Cases Are Soaring in the Community.
Rates of coronavirus infection among Latinos have risen rapidly across the United
States.
By Shawn Hubler, Thomas Fuller, Anjali Singhvi and Juliette Love
Thanks for your forbearances, misguided as you may be.
You do not answer questions, you do not like. Okay, with me. You could attempt to revise
my conclusions on your lack of openness to countering evidence.
For Fred, from my son's latest input. Fred is an RPI alum, within a years or two, with
me:
"Stockholm is the best population to test Covid theory whereby it was hit hard early and
did not have lockdowns.
Nobel Prize winner Dr Michael Levitt postulated that the virus burns out when it has
infected 15-20% of the population.
According to this, he's right...What does this mean for the US?
If you look at the rest of Sweden, you see a bumpier curve because different counties get
hit at later times
The same will probably happen in states which were not hit hard during the first
wave"
The tweet thread goes on to list the states that have not yet reached the 20% threshold,
which is many, though if these states only need to reach 15-20% to exit the first wave,
then most of them are at least halfway there."
A scientist known for his contrarian takes to dire COVID-19 predictions has released a paper
claiming that antibody evidence suggests the median coronavirus infection fatality rate for
those under 70 is just 0.04%.
The estimate throws into sharp relief the lopsided mortality figures for the disease, which
has claimed an inordinate number of elderly people across the planet while leaving younger
individuals mostly unscathed.
John Ioannidis, a professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University,
argues in a paper published
earlier this month that COVID-19 "seroprevalence studies," which measure infection rates using
the presence of antibodies in blood samples, "typically show a much lower fatality than
initially speculated in the earlier days of the pandemic."
"It should be appreciated," he writes in the paper, "that [the fatality rate] is not a
fixed physical constant and it can vary substantially across locations, depending on the
population structure, the case-mix of infected and deceased individuals and other, local
factors. "
In the paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, Ioannidis surveyed 23 different
seroprevalence studies and found that "among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates
ranged from ... 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%."
The median fatality rate of all cases, he writes, is 0.26%, significantly lower than some
earlier estimates that suggested rates as high as over 3%.
In the paper, Ioannidis acknowledges that "while COVID-19 is a formidable threat," the
apparently low fatality rate compared to earlier estimates "is a welcome piece of
evidence."
"Decision-makers can use measures that will try to avert having the virus infect people
and settings who are at high risk of severe outcomes," he writes.
"These measures may be possible to be far more precise and tailored to specific high- risk
individuals and settings than blind lockdown of the entire society."
"... The Elite are gambling that a lid can be placed on the unrest by police/mercenaries, surveillance, and propaganda until a for-profit treatment or vaccine becomes available. That the hundreds of thousands of Americans, Britons or Swedes are dying is of no matter to the top 10% in these nations. ..."
"... The Western Establishment is also in full blown denial. The Empire has fallen. North and South America are sick continents that will have to be quarantined from the coronavirus free nations for the foreseeable future ..."
I think Thierry
Meyssan says it best here . The economic portion alone of the US reaction to the latest
thing we're all supposed to be freaking-out over should be sufficient to cast doubt on the
entire narrative. I make no claim to being the sharpest blade in the drawer, but frankly
something stinks about all this.
As to mask wearing, well I had to continue showing up to work (a grocery co-op) when
everything hit the fan, and mask wearing in all sections has been required.
It's true that US culture doesn't encourage regard for others in ordinary times, hence the
infrequent use of masks by those who are ill even when there isn't a pandemic in town
(hence my suspicion that this SARS2, or whatever has already been going around and resulted
in me being infected by those who'd continue showing up for work while still sniffling and
coughing, without masks ).
Couple this with the lack of humanely adequate, publicly mandated sick leave and it's easy
to see how diseases can get out of control.
So yes, I agree that mask wearing by those who are experiencing symptoms , is every
bit as conducive to common health (and courtesy) as covering ones mouth when sneezing or
coughing, along with frequent hand washing. Making mask wearing an overarching
requirement might be pushing things, imo. I guess my reasoning behind this is the
tendency to social ostracism that can result from making such societal wide requirements
(full disclosure; I wear the mask when required, too). In short, yes by all means wear an
effing mask if you're feeling sick, or if the allergies are particularly bad; you don't want
to get anyone else sick, and it's the nice thing to do. But do not give in to panic every
time someone sneezes, or your local flu season comes calling.
Most would agree that the US has been overtaken by cynical "political correctness (witness
the recent laughable displays of 'solidarity' from legislators and capitalists)." There's a
great line in the Tao De Jing ; "when there is an overabundance of morality, hypocrites
abound." This recent trend toward hyper-morality is being exploited once again by authorities
to keep the population at large divided against itself, same as "left" vs. "right" or "black"
vs. "white" have been so exploited. It is this sort of division that keeps the usual scumbags
happily in power over everyone else, and the future of our collective civilization can't take
it much longer.
Once again, humble thanks to you b. for being here and doing what you do, and thanks for
letting me blab on. Peace and health, barflies.
The only way to fight the coronavirus pandemic is with a functional national government
implementing public health measures of universal testing, contact tracing and isolation of
the infected. Where corporate neoliberalism is in control, the USA, UK and Sweden, a
conscious decision was made not to give power back to the national governments to tax,
regulate and use these old fashion methods to defeat the virus. These nations are following
their amoral aristocratic ideology and are allowing their citizens to die in order to keep
the rich in the money.
The Elite are gambling that a lid can be placed on the unrest by police/mercenaries,
surveillance, and propaganda until a for-profit treatment or vaccine becomes available. That
the hundreds of thousands of Americans, Britons or Swedes are dying is of no matter to the
top 10% in these nations.
The Western Establishment is also in full blown denial. The Empire has fallen. North
and South America are sick continents that will have to be quarantined from the coronavirus
free nations for the foreseeable future .
PARIS (Reuters) - French protesters on Saturday doused the country's health ministry with
red paint, to symbolize the blood of those who died from COVID-19 and to demonstrate against
poor working conditions for public sector healthcare workers.
"For years, health workers have been alerting us to the fact they don't have enough
resources with regards to staff, beds and equipment to be able to allow us to look after people
decently," Aurelie Trouve, a spokeswoman for the 'Attac' activist group which was behind the
protest, told Reuters.
They also placed a giant, medal-shaped banner dubbed 'Medal of Contempt' on the steps of the
French health ministry, to highlight what they said was the government's failure to listen to
the concerns of healthcare workers.
President Emmanuel Macron's government has decided to pay a 1,500 euros ($1,676) bonus to
public sector healthcare workers, in recognition of their role during the coronavirus
outbreak.
Yet many in the sector feel the government should do more for them, and violence broke out
this week at another protest held by healthcare workers in Paris.
It's the ultimate goal, but attaining it can be difficult (and deadly)
The bigger problem with achieving herd immunity through infections is that it defeats the
purpose of reaching herd immunity at all.
"The whole point is to minimize death and morbidity, but even if there is a high rate of
asymptomatic or mild disease, you're still going to have millions of deaths," Rasmussen says.
"What good is herd immunity if millions of people have to die to get there?"
Remember that threshold of 60% to 80% to bring about herd immunity to Covid-19? There's a
reason for it being a range.
Jenkins says, "60% is often bandied around as the level you need to drive the reproductive
number below one, but it still takes time for transmission to go down." But adds, "the final
size of people who might be infected before you see no more transmission would be higher,
more like 80 or 85%."
Researchers call this "overshoot," where "an epidemic doesn't magically stop when you
reach herd immunity," as University of Washington biology professor Carl Bergstrom, PhD,
described it on Twitter. "You reach herd immunity not when the epidemic is nearly over, but
rather *precisely* at the epidemic peak," he explained.
Murray offers this analogy: "I think of it like a train. It's going along slowly, then
it's getting up to speed, and then you pull the brake -- but it's not going to stop
immediately. It's got to slow down."
With a current U.S. population of around 330 million people, a 60% infection rate is about
198 million people. Using the low estimate of a 0.5% death rate, nearly a million people will
die (for context, as of May 13, the official death toll was just over 80,000). If the
fatality rate is closer to 3%, nearly 6 million will die.
And that's just when the brake is pulled, when infections start to taper down. Reaching
80% means 1.3 to 7.9 million dead Americans -- with no guarantee transmission will stop.
Of course, if you're Trump (or me, for that matter), you don't give a shit how many people
die as long as it isn't you.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 20 2020 0:52 utc |
70
"... "We've seen a small number of laboratories that are charging egregious prices for Covid-19 tests," said Angie Meoli, a senior vice president at Aetna, one of the insurers required to cover testing costs. ..."
"... The second outcome is huge price variation, as each doctor's office and hospital sets its own charges for care. One 2012 study found that hospitals in California charge between $1,529 and $182,955 for uncomplicated appendectomies. ..."
"... "It's not unheard-of that one hospital can charge 100 times the price of another for the same thing," said Dr. Renee Hsia, a professor at the University of California, San Francisco, and an author of the appendectomy study. "There is no other market I can think of where that happens except health care." ..."
"... But American patients will eventually bear the costs of these expensive tests in the form of higher insurance premiums. In some cases, they are paying for additional tests, for flu and other respiratory diseases, that doctors tack onto coronavirus orders. Those charges are not exempt from co-payments and can fall into a patient's deductible. ..."
"... Those kinds of bills could make patients wary of seeking care or testing in the future, which could enable the further spread of coronavirus. In an April poll, the Kaiser Family Foundation found that most Americans were worried they wouldn't be able to afford coronavirus testing or treatment if they needed it . ..."
Most Coronavirus Tests Cost About $100. Why Did One Cost $2,315?
U.S. health care prices are unregulated, opaque and unpredictable. When Congress required
insurers to cover Covid-19 testing, a few providers decided to take advantage.
By Sarah Kliff
In a one-story brick building in suburban Dallas, between a dentist office and a family
medicine clinic, is a medical laboratory that has run some of the most expensive coronavirus
tests in America.
Insurers have paid Gibson Diagnostic Labs as much as $2,315 for individual coronavirus
tests. In a couple of cases, the price rose as high as $6,946 when the lab said it mistakenly
charged patients three times the base rate.
The company has no special or different technology from, say, major diagnostic labs that
charge $100. It is one of a small number of medical labs, hospitals and emergency rooms
taking advantage of the way Congress has designed compensation for coronavirus tests and
treatment.
"We've seen a small number of laboratories that are charging egregious prices for
Covid-19 tests," said Angie Meoli, a senior vice president at Aetna, one of the insurers
required to cover testing costs.
How can a simple coronavirus test cost $100 in one lab and 2,200 percent more in another?
It comes back to a fundamental fact about the American health care system: The government
does not regulate health care prices.
This tends to have two major outcomes that health policy experts have seen before, and are
seeing again with coronavirus testing.
The first is high prices over all. Most medical care in the United States costs double or
triple what it would in a peer country. An appendectomy, for example, costs $3,050 in Britain
and $6,710 in New Zealand, two countries that regulate health prices. In the United States,
the average price is $13,020.
The second outcome is huge price variation, as each doctor's office and hospital sets
its own charges for care. One 2012 study found that hospitals in California charge between
$1,529 and $182,955 for uncomplicated appendectomies.
"It's not unheard-of that one hospital can charge 100 times the price of another for
the same thing," said Dr. Renee Hsia, a professor at the University of California, San
Francisco, and an author of the appendectomy study. "There is no other market I can think of
where that happens except health care."
There is little evidence that higher prices correlate with better care. What's different
about the more expensive providers is that they've set higher prices for their services.
Patients are, in the short run, somewhat protected from big coronavirus testing bills. The
federal government set aside $1 billion to pick up the tab for uninsured Americans who get
tested. For the insured, federal laws require that health plans cover the full costs of
coronavirus testing without applying a deductible or co-payment.
But American patients will eventually bear the costs of these expensive tests in the
form of higher insurance premiums. In some cases, they are paying for additional tests, for
flu and other respiratory diseases, that doctors tack onto coronavirus orders. Those charges
are not exempt from co-payments and can fall into a patient's deductible.
Those kinds of bills could make patients wary of seeking care or testing in the
future, which could enable the further spread of coronavirus. In an April poll, the Kaiser
Family Foundation found that most Americans were worried they wouldn't be able to afford
coronavirus testing or treatment if they needed it .
Perhaps one of the well-read people here can help me find some sources. I've been puzzled
by something before and it got exacerbated by the news recently that the Polio vaccine may
be useful to prep the body, as it were, for COVID19.
What I'd be puzzled by is the following: we know there are four commonly circulating
human coronaviruses that register as "colds" in the population, sometimes nasty but
generally not dangerous, and that large %ages of us have gotten them over the years and
will continue to. While these four viruses are not identical to COVID19, they are quite
similar. And it seemed like there were some reports that people who had recently been sick
with these more common coronaviruses had some immunity to COVID19.
Has this been investigated further? Would it not make sense, if true, that the "quick
vaccine" we have been looking for could be purposeful infection by one of these common
human coronaviruses? Would this not be like using the cowpox as a way to make ourselves
more resistant to smallpox, which used to be done until the actual smallpox vaccine was
discovered?
Well Caliman, why do you bother thinking about Covid19? It's just the flu, on tap. When
they need, they open the tap. When it suits them, they close the tap. It's Covid19 on,
Covid19 off. Sometimes it trickles or drips. We all will die some day.
In other words: "behave, or else we bring back the restrictions", but if the flow of
money stops, we will lift them, just so that you work to produce something and keep us
happy.
My suggestion: live your life to the fullest, enjoy nature and family, as if there is no
covid19, no government, no bullshit. You won't regret it.
And don't forget to give feedback here, if you follow my advice.
Trial results announced on Tuesday showed dexamethasone, which is used to reduce
inflammation in other diseases such as arthritis, reduced death rates by around a third among
the most severely ill of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital.
"This is an extremely welcome result," said Peter Horby of Oxford, one of the study leaders. "The survival benefit is clear and
large in those patients who are sick enough to require oxygen treatment, so dexamethasone should now become standard of care in these
patients. Dexamethasone is inexpensive, on the shelf, and can be used immediately to save lives worldwide."
Lead researcher, Prof. Martin Landray, says that hospital patients should now be given the steroid without delay, but that people shouldn't
try to hoard it for private use. According to the study, Dexamethasone does not appear to help milder cases - those who don't need help
breathing.
The drug has been used to treat a wide range of conditions, including asthma and rheumatoid arthritis.
Notable quotes:
"... Chief investigator Prof Peter Horby said: "This is the only drug so far that has been shown to reduce mortality - and it reduces it significantly. It's a major breakthrough." ..."
About 19 out of 20 patients with coronavirus recover without being admitted to hospital. Of those who are admitted to hospital,
most also recover, but some may need oxygen or mechanical ventilation. These are the high-risk patients whom dexamethasone appears
to help.
The drug is already used to reduce inflammation in a range of other conditions, and it appears that it helps stop some of the
damage that can happen when the body's immune system goes into overdrive as it tries to fight off coronavirus.
In the trial, led by a team from Oxford University, around 2,000 hospital patients were given dexamethasone and were compared
with more than 4,000 who did not receive the drug.
For patients on ventilators, it cut the risk of death from 40% to 28%. For patients needing oxygen, it cut the risk of death from
25% to 20%.
Chief investigator Prof Peter Horby said: "This is the only drug so far that has been shown to reduce mortality - and it reduces
it significantly. It's a major breakthrough."
Lead researcher Prof Martin Landray says the findings suggest that for every eight patients treated on ventilators, you could
save one life.
For those patients treated with oxygen, you save one life for approximately every 20-25 treated with the drug.
"There is a clear, clear benefit. The treatment is up to 10 days of dexamethasone and it costs about £5 per patient. So essentially
it costs £35 to save a life. This is a drug that is globally available."
Prof Landray said, when appropriate, hospital patients should now be given it without delay, but people should not go out and
buy it to take at home.
Dexamethasone does not appear to help people with milder symptoms of coronavirus - those who don't need help with their breathing.
The Recovery Trial has been running since March. It included the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine which has subsequently been
ditched amid concerns that it increases fatalities
and heart problems.
5) And again, Dexamethasone is cheap, available from any pharmacy, and easily obtainable anywhere in the world. This is EXACTLY
what we need, instead of a $1000 drug like remdesivir that is just marginally effective for shortening illness but not yet fully
proven for mortality.
Walrus, another topic doctors talk about privately are the well-known "bad doctors" who keep
getting free passes mistake after mistake, and often sit on hospital quality review
committees.
As well as talking among themselves about the large numbers of iatrogenic deaths, caused
by the medical community itself, which have long exceeded the numbers of "corona" deaths,
ginned up covid numbers or not.
"I've worked in a lot of settings," said Dr. Michael Peters, a pulmonary critical care doctor,
was assigned to a hospital in Queens overwhelmed with Covid-19 cases. "These patients were very
sick, and they had a disease that we didn't know how to take care of yet."
All of the UCSF doctors said they saw patients in their forties and fifties, who didn't meet
the "typical" profile for Covid-19 because they were otherwise healthy. In the Queens hospital,
where Peters worked, many of the patients were Black or Hispanic. Data shows that the virus has
hit racial and ethnic minorities worse, and studies are underway to better understand why.
With the 24/7 media circus coverage of Covid-19 I find it particularly interesting that
there is an obvious glaring omission of some extremely important facts relative to dealing with
a virus, especially one that is allegedly so virulent like this one. Yes, I read all about the
critical need to shelter in place, stay inside away from other people, wash your hands
constantly, avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth, wear your face mask and by all means
observe social distancing if you MUST venture outside for food!
Then it's repeated ad infinitum that the ONLY hope we have of ever returning to a semblance
of normalcy is to have a vaccine to protect us! Then to add some drama to this narrative the
media highlights their death-o-meter scoreboard with the implied threat that you'll be next IF
you don't obey the rules as dictated by the "experts".
But what is assiduously avoided at all cost is any reference to our most potent defense
against any virus; our body's natural immune system. Try as I might I couldn't find anything
about this first line of defense on the World Health Organizations (WHO) website or Centers for
Disease Control (CDC) website. It's as if it doesn't exist and is completely irrelevant.
If these organizations were genuinely concerned about the health of citizens they would
obviously discuss the vital role a healthy immune system plays in protecting us from illnesses.
But since they don't its obvious some other motive is at work, at least to me, and I strongly
suspect to other critical thinkers as well.
We now know from the science and data that over 90% of the people exposed to Covid-19 have
no symptoms at all or at worst a mild cold. The flu vaccines we have are only effective 30% to
60% of the time and the bugs change regularly so a vaccine that worked OK last year may barely
work at all this year. Let's learn some more about our body's immune system.
Virus
protection without a vaccine
There is an enlightening article on Web MD titled: "How to use Your Immune System to Stay
Healthy". That's a pretty straight forward title now isn't it? Early on Bruce Polsky, MD,
interim chairman department of medicine and chief division of infectious disease at St.
Lukes-Roosevelt Hospital Center in New York City says:
"We are endowed with a great immune system that has been designed evolutionarily to keep
us healthy."
The article goes on. . .
"The immune system is your body's natural defense system. It's an intricate network of
cells, tissues and organs that band together to defend your body against invaders. Those
invaders can include bacteria, viruses, parasites, even fungus, all with the potential to
make us sick. They are everywhere-in our homes, offices and backyards. . . "
The truth is no amount of social distancing, hand washing or face mask wearing is going to
eliminate our exposure to these various bugs. That's why we were created with this amazing
first line of natural defense.
Here's more from Web MD . . .
"The immune system can recognize millions of different antigens. And it can produce what
it needs to eradicate nearly all of them. When it's working properly, this elaborate defense
system can keep health problems ranging from cancer to the common cold at bay. . . "
Wow! That's pretty amazing stuff isn't it! According to Web MD a properly functioning immune
system can "keep health problems ranging from cancer to the common cold at bay." So why isn't
this "science" being included in all the other health recommendations we're being bombarded
with daily? It seems to me that any "expert" worth their salt would be talking about the
importance of a healthy immune system to stay healthy.
But there's more . . .
The Web MD article noted that failure to eat a healthy diet, sitting around not exercising,
not getting enough sleep and chronic stress can all lead to a compromised immune system. To
quote Dr. Polsky again:
". . . Lifestyle aspects are very, very important."
So if our lifestyle is very, very important to staying healthy as the good doctor says ask
yourself this question? Based on the Web M.D. article virtually all the results of the lockdown
serve to weaken our immune systems. The stress of unemployment, constant harping about
infections and rising death rates, lack of exercise and now a crack in our food distribution
system all are known to weaken the human immune system.
I also find it quite interesting that large groups of people can shop at Walmart, Home Depot
or other big box stores but they can't attend their local church even if it's a "drive through"
service?
Web M.D. says:
"Research shows that people with close friendships and strong support systems tend to be
healthier than those who lack such supports."
During times of crisis people need encouragement and their faith built up more than ever
before. Mandating people huddle in fear in their homes with constant media reports of
infections and death bombarding them continually is there any wonder peoples immune systems are
under severe stress?
Private equity is essential a mafia style business: they aid to blled thier victim dry.
Notable quotes:
"... By the end of 2018, available cash was so tight that Prospect got a $41 million infusion from Leonard Green and members of its management, according to Moody's. The ratings firm downgraded Prospect deeper into junk last year at B3, citing "shareholder-friendly policies" and the higher leverage resulting from the $457 million dividend. ..."
"... Meanwhile, care quality ratings for seven of the 10 Prospect hospitals evaluated by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or CMS, have declined since 2016, according to HMP Metrics, a health-care facility analytics service. CMS ranks facilities from 1 to 5 stars, with 5 being the best. ..."
"... Most Prospect hospitals sit at the bottom rungs of quality assessments, according to the agency's hospital comparison database. Nine have a two-star rating or below, placing them in the lowest 30% of rated hospitals, according to CMS data. Just one Prospect-owned hospital -- Roger Williams Medical Center in Rhode Island -- earned a three-star rating. ..."
"... "Private equity owners, seeking high returns, may be even more willing to cut costs in crucial ways than even other for-profit health care companies," she said in an interview. ..."
Russian developers have registered a new drug that may help alleviate the harshest
complications caused by Covid-19, including lung failure. It's hoped the treatment can buy time
before a vaccine is found. Levilimab is the second medication to receive state approval through
a fast-track mechanism, implemented to give doctors more options to tackle the virus, which has
already infected more than 459,000 and killed 5,725 in Russia, according to official
statistics.
"I think we'll be able to keep Covid-19 complications under control and minimize the
harshest problems it causes," Dmitry Morozov, general director of Biocad, the
biopharmaceutical company behind the drug, wrote on Facebook. By reducing the Covid-19
mortality rate, Levilimab will allow Russia to "buy time" before the vaccine against the
coronavirus is made, and "the vaccine is surely coming soon," he added.
The drug is aimed at curbing the so-called 'cytokine storm,' a common complication from
Covid-19 when the sick person's immune system overreacts to the virus and the excessive
inflammation leads to fatal outcome.
"The mechanism [used in Levilimab] is known to researchers around the globe. But all the
rest was done in Russia, by our company, from scratch. There's an original patented
molecule," Morozov told RT.
Levilimab's highlight is that it can be administered not only to patients already in a
serious condition, but used as a prophylactic to "prevent the 'cytokine storm' from
occurring and allowing the patient to avoid intensive care and lung ventilation," he
pointed out.
The drug, which will go into the market under the brand ILSIRA, is administered
hypodermically unlike its foreign counterparts, which get into the system through the
intravenous route. "One shot and you don't go into the emergency room. There are two
syringes in a package. Their injected simultaneously or with some interval. And in a week the
person is discharged from hospital," Morozov said.
Levilimab has proven itself as effective as its foreign counterparts and increased the speed
of recovery for patients, Ekaterina Trifonova, who heads the infectious ward at the Central
Clinical Hospital in Moscow, where the drug underwent clinical testing, told RT. During the
first two weeks of trials, out of 45 Covid-19 patients who got the drug, ten were discharged,
including a 92-year-old-man, while the rest remained in satisfactory condition, she added.
WHO now says asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare'
Jun. 09, 2020 - 4:06 - World Health Organization changes its tune on asymptomatic patients
spreading COVID-19; reaction from Fox News medical contributor Dr. Marc Siegel.
Although numerous studies have suggested people can spread the virus before they show
symptoms, the WHO has largely dismissed those as anecdotal or pointed out that they were
based on modelling.
Babak Javid, an infectious diseases doctor at Cambridge University Hospital, says many
scientists are persuaded by the studies published so far and think WHO should publish the
data it is citing to explain why it believes transmission of the disease in people without
symptoms is "rare".
"If you're going to make a really important statement like that, it would be good to
back it up," Javid said. "I think WHO is an important organisation, but they've made a lot
of statements that have been misleading."
"The top teams rushing to develop coronavirus vaccines are alerting governments, health
officials and shareholders that they may have a big problem : The outbreaks in their countries
may be getting too small to quickly determine whether vaccines work
A leader of the Oxford University group, one of the furthest ahead with human trials, admits
the reality is paradoxical, even "bizarre," but said the declining numbers of new infections
this summer could be one of the big hurdles vaccine developers face in the global race to beat
down the virus.
Even as new cases are growing worldwide, transmission rates are falling in Britain, China
and many of the hardest-hit regions in the United States -- the three countries that have
experimental vaccines ready to move into large-scale human testing in June, July and August."
Washpost
---------------
Well, pilgrims it would seem that the Post staff does not see the irony in their own
writing, or perhaps they do. There have been scattered evidences of rationality there lately.
Even as Democrat governors and mayors across the country drag their feet on the re-opening of
the American economy, infection rates are falling. In the Faucibirxist view of things
everything depends on vaccine development (or herd immunity post holocaust). But, alas there
just aren't enough new, vibrant infections to make development of the vaccines convenient. What
will happen to the flow of government money to these projects if this phenomenon becomes
general knowledge. Someone at the Post should be disciplined for this indiscretion. pl
"What will happen to the flow of government money to these projects if this phenomenon
becomes general knowledge."
Well Fauci is almost 80 so I think he's set for life. I hear the left wants lots of
redevelopment funds and jobs programs, with the attendant opportunities for graft that comes
with them, for thier cities which we are all assured had neither rioting nor looting.
Thank you Col. Lang for all the posts on novel coronavirus.
For shining light on this, this utter failure by the medical community and their various
and sundry enablers in government and in business.
On these liars and charlatans and killers and criminals.
The video below is about an hour long. It is a nurse, who worked in NYC hospital, the
alleged epi center of epi centers.
She basically says, without saying directly, but points to the fact that doctors were
murdering patients there, it seems.
She paints a picture of doctors not as scientists but as zealots, as neo neanderthals, as
craven monsters, who care not about life, the elderly, the sick, the least among us.
As Nurse Ratchets
Towards the end of video, she recounts her last day at this hospital, discussing a patient
she had nursed for many days, and who was doing fine, making progress, . . . and how she was
removed from his bed on direct orders, sent to the ER where she was not assigned, and 20
minutes later, the man she was caring for is dead.
These sorts of stories abound; this rage is not going away anytime soon. This is the rage,
and what caused it, that our "lords and masters" who censor us and tell us black is white,
and want to destroy our country. . . this is the rage they don't want to see expressed and
exposed. Will they get their way?
Well...they can always test their vaccines in the USA. We seem not to be faring as well and
can help out. (I believe this is a glass half-full moment.)
Trump needs to stop the $600 a week federal bonus to the unemployed. My neighbor told me
about how his daughter-in-law worked one day a week as a barmaid before the virus shut the
bar down and made a little over a hundred a week. Oregon unemployment pays her 150 a week and
with the added 600 she now makes over 7 times what she did working. How many protesters and
rioters are just as flush getting paid to party in the street? Most i'd say. That makes these
government funded protests a powerful voice and recruitment tool for the Democratic Party.
Ending the federal subsidy to the unemployed would reduce, if not stop, the demonstrations
and mau-mauing of the country.
Absolutely. There were howls of protests before Minneapolis when Georgia, Florida and
Texas started tellling people that if they recieved a recall to work notice from an employer
and refused to go they would be considered a voluntary quit and no longer eligable for
unemployment insurance payments. They'll howl again when they figure out this is all taxable
income.
Take everything the WaPo claims with a grain of salt. There is no real worry over lower covid
infections. What made Covid decrease was the lockdowns. Remove the lockdowns and covid
infection rates will climb, as we are seeing in the already reopened states.
Then when fall rolls around, and people are stuck indoors again, rates will skyrocket.
There will be plenty of test subjects for a vaccine.
With the spread rate of the coronavirus, any outbreak of the infection will peter out once
the total immunity rate of the population approaches 65-70 percent.
In Bergamo (Italy), 57 percent a population sample have tested positive for coronavirus
antibodies, which means that they must have had the infection before and are now most likely
immune.
If you are a Karen, then don't listen to me, but take it from the German government's very
own propaganda outlet, Deutsche Welle:
"Out of nearly 10,000 Bergamo residents who had their blood tested between April 23 and
June 3, 57% had antibodies, indicating they had come into contact with the virus and
developed an immune response.
Health authorities said the sample size was 'sufficiently broad' to be a reliable
indicator of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 among Bergamo province's population."
COVID-19 is really two different diseases. In the first few days, it is like a very bad
cold. In some people, it then morphs into pneumonia which can be life-threatening. What I
found is that treatments for the cold don't work well for the pneumonia, and vice versa.
Most of the published studies have looked at treatments for the cold but used for the
pneumonia. I just looked at how well the treatments for the cold worked for the cold. There
are five studies done this way, four of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin and one with
hydroxychloroquine plus doxycycline, and they all show that treating the cold part of
COVID-19 -- the early part -- works very well.
The article completely decimates the arguments against using HCQ + AZ or HCQ +
doxycycline, specifically in early outpatient use.
The article completely decimates the arguments against using HCQ + AZ or HCQ + doxycycline,
specifically in early outpatient use.
It is good to see real science being applied rather than voodoo shilling for big
pharma.
Still waiting for the editor resignations at Lancet and NEJM on their publication of the
hoax science article.
Let me be very clear about pharmaceuticles: the interaction of two dissimilar substances
can be extraordinary beneficial. My personal example is from a Specialist Pharmacologist that
treated a bone disease in my thumb arising from mechanical injury. He explained thus:
The bone problem has three quite separate stages of treatment.
At the first week common antibiotic remedies are vital and effective. I was too late for
that.
If that stage is missed then a common and potent antibiotic combined with a substance
commonly used to treat gout is vital. The combination of the two flattens the peak of the
antibiotic such that it is sustained in the bloodstream for 24 hours until the next dose of
the two. A fourteen day process as I recall. It was totally successful.
If that second stage is missed then late intervention is extensive use of antibiotics and
the gout remedy over months as the bone decomposition bacteria have spread throughout ones
metabolism and lodge randomly to wreak havoc. This treatment regime is punishing on the body
and digestive tract and many people cannot endure it.
This Specialist was a high street operator in nice office NOT a pharmacy.
So lets not be jumping to hasty dismissals of what may or may not 'work' and when. Humans
vary, diets vary and propensities are highly variable. It is the responsibility of scientists
to be honest and act in the best interests of humanity. Clearly the study published in the
Lancet and NEJM was fake science and those journals fell for it because of either inadequate
editorial investigation of the paper, confirmation bias, inadequate consideration of human
consequences.
The WHO stands condemned for being suckered by fake news, confirmation bias, malign
financial manipulation or perhaps inadequate investigation of the authors and claims of the
paper.
The top US public health officials today said the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak
that began in Wuhan, China, is not a threat to the average American citizen.
"Americans should know this is a potentially very serious public health threat, but
Americans should not worry for their own safety," said Alex Azar, secretary of the Department
of Health and Human Services (HHS).
Azar was joined by Robert Redfield, MD, director of the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC), Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and
Respiratory Disease, and Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health.
Azar began and ended the press conference by imploring the Chinese government to accept the
US's offer to send experts from the CDC to aid in the response efforts.
"We are urging China, more cooperation and transparency are the most effective options you
can take for an effective response," Azar said. Azar said the United States first offered
assistance on Jan 6, and most recently reiterated the offer yesterday.
During the press conference, Azar was alerted to the news that China had agreed to allow a
team of international experts led by the World Health Organization to come to China to work on
the virus, which he welcomed.
No ongoing spread among US cases
All officials at the press conference offered assurances about the US response to the five
confirmed 2019-nCoV cases identified in Washington state, Illinois, Arizona, and California. So
far, none of the cases have resulted in secondary transmission, they said, and all patients
have cooperated with the CDC in gathering as much information as possible about the
illness.
"We have no evidence of human-to-human transmission in the United States," said Messonnier.
"All the cases have been directly transmitted from China."
Redfield said the CDC decided to increase surveillance efforts in US airports. Now 20 -- up
from 5 -- of the nation's largest and busiest airports will practice enhanced screening of
passengers traveling from China. Late yesterday the CDC also issued a level 3 travel advisory,
suggesting US citizens avoid all nonessential travel to anywhere in China.
Redfield and Messonnier said an important part of the enhanced screening will be educating
passengers to look for possible symptoms of 2019-nCoV, as patients may be asymptomatic at the
time of travel. The experts urged both travelers and their physicians to take precautions if an
upper respiratory illness and fever follow a recent trip to China.
Throughout the press conference, the officials referenced past experience in Asia with
coronavirus diseases SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory
syndrome), and avian flu, suggesting the US has the tools to help combat the new coronavirus
outbreak.
Symptomatic transmission as likely driver
Fauci explained that China was currently using both the antiviral remdesivir and the
antiretroviral drug Kaletra (lopinavir and ritonavir) on a compassionate basis on some nCoV
patients. Both treatments, used against Ebola and HIV, respectively, are unproven against the
novel coronavirus.
Fauci said monoclonal antibody–based therapies will be the next step in developing a
possible treatment for the virus, as will a phase 1 clinical trial of a potential vaccine.
He also addressed concerns about whether the virus could be easily spread by asymptomatic
carriers. "The driver of respiratory outbreaks is symptomatic people, not asymptomatic
carriers," said Fauci.
FDA launches nCoV site
In related news, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced yesterday it was taking
key actions to develop nCoV countermeasures.
The FDA also launched a landing page, or website, for 2019-nCoV information.
"We are committed to keeping the American people informed as we prepare and respond to
emerging public health threats, including the novel coronavirus," said FDA Deputy Commissioner
of Policy, Legislation, and International Affairs Anna Abram, in a press release. "The agency
is committed to ensuring safe and effective medical countermeasures are available as quickly as
possible to protect public health."
The FDA said the first step will be developing diagnostic tests that will quickly identify
the coronavirus. Such tests would likely be able to benefit from the FDA's Emergency Use
Authorization pathway, and developers are urged to follow the links and guidelines provided by
the FDA.
Try doing a search on Kary Mullis, creator of the PCR process. He died last year so we can
only go by past statements. He always stated that PCR was completely inappropriate and
meaningless for diagnostics or for any other clinical purpose.
CDC guidance on PCR until earlier this year was that doctors do diagnosis, not
laboratories. Doctors were allowed to consider PCR results as a factor, cautioned not to rely
on them. In current situation PCR results are the definition of COVID.
If the test is allowed to run too many cycles any sample will test positive.
And it is never entirely certain how many cycles have elapsed, clock does not tell exactly
what the RNA is up to.
The Science of
Superspreaders
A fraction of infected people trigger the bulk of new cases, one reason the pandemic is far
from over
Meanwhile, the protests happening in this convulsed nation, with people often shoulder to
shoulder, set the stage for new chains of infections. Any shouting, along with sneezing and
coughing (perhaps in reaction to pepper spray) will spread the virus especially easily.
"All things considered, there's little doubt that these protests will translate into
increased risk of transmission for Covid-19," Maimuna Majumder, an epidemiologist at Boston
Children's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, tells The Atlantic.
Putting an exact number on the impact of superspreaders is nearly impossible, since not all
cases are ever traced back to any original source. The going best estimate is that 20% of
infected people are responsible for 80% of onward infections, says William Hanage,
associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Some
evidence suggests as few as 10% of people trigger 80% of ongoing infections, Hanage told
reporters in a recent teleconference.
Three separate studies have suggested the 20/80 ratio. A study of Hong Kong cases
reached that conclusion and also found that 70% of people who contracted Covid-19 didn't
spread it at all.
The latest data this disprove its efficiency in treating COVID-19, as it turned out, came
from a tiny US healthcare analytics firm called Surgisphere, and calling it faulty would be
excessively charitable. This is clearly a hired guns hit.
Not only is Surgisphere a company lacking in medical expertise – its employees
included an "adult" entertainer and a science-fiction writer – but its CEO Sapan Desai
co-authored two of the damning studies that used the firm's data to smear hydroxychloroquine,
already thoroughly demonized in the media thanks to its promotion by US President Donald Trump,
as a killer. All data is sourced to a proprietary database supposedly containing a veritable
ocean of real-time, detailed patient information yet curiously absent from existing medical
literature.
The Surgisphere-tainted study appeared to show increased risk of in-hospital deaths and
heart problems with no disease-fighting benefits, confirming the suspicions of medical-industry
naysayers already inclined to hate the off-patent drug due to the lack of profit potential and
Trump's incessant boosterism. Italy, France, and Germany rushed to ban hydroxychloroquine,
citing "an increased risk for adverse reactions with little or no benefit."
CDC consist of overpaid idiots. On 20 January, the first confirmed case in South Korea was
identified as a 35-year-old Chinese woman. The first South Korean national to be infected
occurred three days later was a 55-year-old man who worked in Wuhan and returned for a checkup
with flu symptoms. The two infection reports were publicly released on 24 January.
[1] At
this point team of CDC researchers should already be in South Korea. But nothing was done.
The technology was old, the data poor, the bureaucracy slow, the guidance confusing, the
administration not in agreement. The coronavirus shook the world's premier health
agency , creating a loss of confidence and hampering the U.S. response to the crisis
"World's premier health agency"?
I think the illusion the C.D.C. was the "world's premier health agency" comes from the
fact that the USA has, by far, the largest and most powerful pharmaceutical sector in the
world (which Americans call "Big Pharma"). If you have the biggest pharma, you will have the
most sheer volume of human trials and new drug patents. This, by osmosis, puts your country's
C.D.C. at the forefront of most drug regulation - which the rest of the world's C.D.C.s will
simply copy and paste for obvious reasons (i.e. they won't do the same work twice). That
doesn't mean your C.D.C. is "the premier". For instance, it could simply be the most corrupt,
the C.D.C. which is at the right place, the right time. An example for this is the USA's
airplane equivalent to the C.D.C., which sold itself off to Boeing, resulting in the 737 MAX
fiasco.
In early 2013 I was given a 3 PBC rating for my 2012 performance, the main reason cited by my
manager being that my team lead thought I "seemed distracted". Five months later I was
included in a "resource action", and was gone by July. I was 20 months shy of 55. Younger
coworkers were retained. That was about two years after the product I worked on for over a
decade was off-shored.
Through a fluke of someone from the old, disbanded team remembering me, I was rehired two
years later - ironically in a customer support position for the very product I helped
develop.
While I appreciated my years of service, previous salary, and previous benefits being
reinstated, a couple years into it I realized I just wasn't cut out for the demands of the
job - especially the significant 24x7 pager duty. Last June I received email describing a
"Transition to Retirement" plan I was eligible for, took it, and my last day will be June 30.
I still dislike the job, but that plan reclassified me as part time, thus ending pager duty
for me. The job still sucks, but at least I no longer have to despair over numerous week long
24x7 stints throughout the year.
A significant disappointment occurred a couple weeks ago. I was discussing healthcare
options with another person leaving the company who hadn't been resource-actioned as I had,
and learned the hard way I lost over $30,000 in some sort of future medical benefit account
the company had established and funded at some point. I'm not sure I was ever even aware of
it. That would have funded several years of healthcare insurance during the 8 years until I'm
eligible for Medicare. I wouldn't be surprised if their not having to give me that had
something to do with my seeming "distracted" to them. <rolls eyes="">
What's really painful is the history of that former account can still be viewed at
Fidelity, where it associates my departure date in 2013 with my having "forfeited" that
money. Um, no. I did not forfeit that money, nor would I have. I had absolutely no choice in
the matter. I find the use of the word 'forfeited' to describe what happened as both
disingenuous and offensive. That said, I don't know whether's that's IBM's or Fidelity's
terminology, though.
We were told for months we'd never gather in public again 'because Covid-19.'
...Media, politicians and celebrities who spent the past three months lecturing Americans
about the importance of staying home and keeping at least six feet away from all other humans
lest they catch or spread the deadly coronavirus have suddenly pivoted on a dime –
seemingly as one – to cheering on those Americans defying their advice to pour into the
streets and join nationwide protests...
Super happy to see you bring up care ethics and how the existence of relationships of care
undermine the individualist focus of (neo)liberalism. Have you done a video on care
ethics?
If so I'll be watching it shortly. I wish you'd gone even farther and looked at the
importance of un-paid or underpaid care labour in the foundation of capitalism, but I suppose
that's tangential.
lass="comment-renderer-text-content expanded"> Neoliberalism is pretty much what caused
me to have to leave the UK when they simply made it too difficult to survive as someone with
a disability. I can consider myself unreasonably lucky in holding dual citizenship, and in
the other country I have citizenship of not (yet) resorting to quite the same level of
sadistic behaviour... But it certainly wasn't something that was reassuring... And I feel
sorry for all the people in similar circumstances who had to somehow find a way to cope with
it anyway...
"They assume that free markets mean competition. And competition means that quality is kept high, prices are kept low, and it drives innovation, distributes resources efficiently to the people that want them the most."
That's... not specifically a neoliberal thing. That's capitalism in general. But OK... I'm inclined to mostly agree with this stated premise (might pick some different semantics but eh... close enough). You're going to tell me why I shouldn't. So let's see what you've got:
"Have free markets resulted in a lot of competition everywhere? Or have some markets become dominated by a very small number of companies?"
Yep... oligarchies happen. Ever notice that it tends to be in the most heavily regulated markets? Big companies with fat profit margins can survive regulations, small businesses and startups can't. The more you free the market, the easier it is for literally anyone with money, charisma, and/or a brilliant idea to spring up and carve off a big piece of the big guy's market share with a better product/service/resource for everyone.
"Are resources as efficiently distributed as they could be?"
Never. There's always room for improvement. But if we're to compare against existing examples capitalism does it faster, cheaper & overall better than the alternatives.
"Do they always go to the people who want them the most?"
They go to people able and willing to provide something of value in exchange. There's a lot of overlap between the two groups. But no. Some people don't get the resources they want because wanting something doesn't automatically mean you get it. Although even in a ruthless capitalist society of individualism people actually do still give a shit about their fellow man. Private charities are still perfectly functional capitalist entities (for profit or otherwise).
"Is the innovation that is happening always useful?"
No. People chase bad ideas all the time. But generally, people quickly lose interest and stop supporting bad ideas (or run out of money). At least in a capitalist setting bad ideas can die on their own merit of providing nothing in exchange for what you give them. Instead of being propped up by tax dollars people don't want to spend on a completely unsustainable pet project of some ego-centric politician and the slight majority he's convinced is not a bad enough reason to kick him out of office.
"Is it allowed to benefit all of human kind when it is?"
Who decides what is and isn't beneficial to all of human kind? Or are you simply referring to the fact that when someone creates something useful and new, it isn't immediately somehow provided to everyone who may want it?
I can't help but notice there was weasel wording in every single one of these questions. As presented, you have to answer "no" to all of them because the question requires absolute total success in all cases in order to answer "yes" to any of them.
"individualism ignores systemic privilege"
Yea... so what? In what way does someone else being rich, good looking, charismatic, smart or skilled negatively affect you? Especially someone you never interact with?
What it does not ignore is systemic discrimination. Stuff that actually negatively affects people in a quantifiable way.
"individualism ignores or misvalues the role of care" Individuals still
care about people. They still have friends and family. The only difference is that they
are encouraged to take it upon themselves to see to the well being of themselves and
the people they care about. Sure, you can be a shithead who burns every social bridge
but you end up fucking yourself when hard times fall upon you. An individualist still
has vested personal interest in maintaining good relationships with those around them
for this very reason. Even when their motives are completely selfish. As individuals we
are encouraged to make these connections ourselves as opposed to expecting some
authority to forcibly extract our needs from strangers. Individuals care about other
people, collectivists care about the idea of other people.
Michael Levitt is Professor of computer science and structural biology at Stanford Medical
School and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry.
He has been a close observer of the pandemic and the response from the outset through its
movement to Europe, the U.K., and the U.S.. Last month, speaking to the Unherd podcast and
youtube channel, he offered some compelling thoughts and observers, and a striking
conclusion.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/bl-sZdfLcEk
Below is a transcript of the parts I found most relevant.
Q: So you noticed that the curve was less of an exponential curve than we might have
feared, in those early days?
A: In some ways there was never any exponential growth from the minute I looked at it,
there were never any two days that had exactly the same growth rate -- and they were getting
slow of course you could have non exponential growth where every single day they're getting
more than exponential -- but the growth was always sub-exponential. So that's the first
step.
Q: [In the UK] we talk endlessly about the R-rate -- the reproduction rate -- and
apparently that began very high, maybe as high as 3, and [we've now] got it down below 1 in
the UK. Intuitively, if there's a high reproduction rate, you should see that exponential
curve just going up and up.
A: Well no, wait, okay. The R-0, which is very popular, is in some ways a faulty number.
Let me explain why. The rate of growth doesn't depend on R-0. It depends on R-0 and the time
you are infectious. So if you are twice as long infectious and have half the R-0 you'll get
exactly the same growth rate. This is sort of intuitive, but it's not explained, and
therefore it seems to me that I would say at the present time R-0 became important because of
a lot of movies -- it was very popular -- talked about R-0.
Epidemiologists talk about R-0 but, looking at all the mathematics, you have to specify
the time infectious at the same time to have any meaning. The other problem is that R-0
decreases -- we don't know why R-0 decreases. It could be social distancing, it could be
prior immunity, it could be hidden cases.
Q: You've been observing the shapes of these curves and how the R-0 number tends to come
down and the curve tends to flatten in some kind of natural way regardless of intervention.
Is that what you are observing?
A: We don't know. I think the big test is going to be Sweden. Sweden is practicing a level
of social distancing that is keeping children in schools, keeping people at work. They are
obviously having more deaths in countries like Israel or Austria that are practicing very
very strict social distancing but I think it is not a crazy policy. The reason I felt that
social distancing was unimportant is practicing very very strict social distancing, but I
think it is not a crazy policy.
The reason I felt that social distancing was unimportant is that I had two examples in
China to start with and then we had the additional examples. The first one was South Korea
(yeah), and Iran, and Italy. The beginning of all the epidemics showing a slowing down, and
it was very hard for me to believe that those three countries could practice
social-distancing as well as China. China was amazing, especially outside Hubei, in that they
had no additional outbreaks. People left Hubei, they were very carefully tracked, had to wear
face masks all the time, had to take their temperatures all the time, and there were no
further outbreaks.
So this did not happen in either in South Korea or in Italy or in Iran. Now, two months
later something else suggests that social distancing might not be important, and that is that
the total number of deaths we're seeing in New York City, in parts of England, in parts of
France, in northern Italy -- all seem to stop at about the same direction of the population
so are they all practicing equally good social distancing? I don't think so.
The problem I think is outbreaks occurring in different regions. I think social distancing
that stops people moving from London to Manchester is probably a really good idea. My feeling
is that in London, and in New York City, all the people who got infected, all got infected
before anybody noticed. There's no way that the infection grew so quickly in New York City
without the infection spreading very quickly. So one of the key things is to stop people, who
know that they're sick, from infecting the others. Here again, China has three very, very
important advantages that are not high-tech that don't involve security tracking of
telephones.
What they involve is, number one, the tradition in China for years, of wearing a face mask
when you're sick. As soon as the coronavirus started everybody wore a face mask. It doesn't
have to be a hygienic face mask it just has to be a face covering to stop you spraying
saliva, micro droplets of saliva on somebody you talk to. The second thing in China is that
because they were so scared of the SARS epidemic in most airports, stations where you pay
tolls et cetera, there are thermometers. Infrared thermometers that that measure your
temperature. So having your temperature measured at every single store entrance -- either
with a handheld thermometer or with something mounted on the wall -- is something completely
standard in China. And the third thing is that almost all payments in China are made not
using a credit card, so in some senses it is very much easier there to practice social
distancing. Of course, in addition they know where people are.
Q: What's your view of the lockdown policy that so many European countries and states in
America have introduced?
A: I think it is a huge mistake. I think we need smart lockdowns. If we were to do this
again, we would probably insist on face masks, hand sanitizers, and some kind of payment that
did not involve touching right from the very beginning. This would slow down new outbreaks
and I think that for example they found as I understand, that children, even if they're
infected, never infect adults, so why do we not have children at school? Why do we not have
people working? England, France, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, Holland, are all reaching levels of
saturation that are going to be very, very close to herd immunity -- So that's a good thing.
I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the
right track -- before they were fed wrong numbers and they made a huge mistake.
I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden. They didn't practice too much lock down,
they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity. The standout losers are countries like
Austria, Australia, Israel that actually had very very strict lockdowns but didn't have many
cases. So they have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the
educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity.
I think in many ways the European countries are fine. They didn't need to have lockdown
but they have all reached a high enough level of infection not to have to worry about further
future attacks of coronavirus. The United States seems to be heading that way, they're
certainly that way in New York City but they still have a long way to go
Q: What you're saying is that, you believe success -- as we are currently measuring it
which is as few cases as possible and as small a spread of the virus as possible -- is
actually failure?
A: I think if you really control your epidemic, for example, California, it's now had
lockdowns for six weeks, and wants another four weeks, they have so far less than a hundred
deaths, that means they don't have more (let's say a hundred thousand) in people, that is not
enough to give them significant herd immunity. They didn't need to do all that lock down.
The lockdown is particularly hurtful in countries that don't have good social
infrastructure, countries like the United States and Israel . Many, many people have been
really really hurt -- especially young people. You know I think that everybody panicked --
they were fed incorrect numbers by epidemiologists and you know this I think led to led to a
situation.
There is no doubt in my mind that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by
lockdowns will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor. One very easy way to see this is,
and again I am getting into a sensitive territory here, but economists have a very simple way
of looking at death. They don't count people. They come to the conclusion that if you're 20
and you die that's a greater loss than if you're 85 and you die. It's a hard issue, but in
some ways are we valuing the potential future life of the 20 year old? Are we valuing the
loss of more senior persons by what's called daily disability-adjusted life years. Basically
if somebody is in their 80s, has Alzheimer's disease, and then dies from pneumonia (perhaps
due to corona) that is less of a loss than if a 15 year old is riding his motorcycle bike and
gets run over. This is an important way of looking at death.
It's also you know, right now, the number of excess deaths is around 130,000 up to
yesterday, [May 1st]. This is for all of Europe, for a population of around 330 million
people. So an excess of 100,000 for this whole year, is actually not that much. In some of
the worst flu epidemics we get to those kinds of numbers -- sometimes it's a bit more,
sometimes a little bit less.
Now, I'm not saying flu is like coronavirus, I'm just simply saying that the burden of
death of flu is like coronavirus. Especially when we correct for the fact that people who die
from coronavirus are older on average than people who died from flu . Flu kills young people,
it kills two or three times more people under 65 than does coronavirus. If we put those facts
into the situation we find that the burden of death from coronavirus and Phillip Shaw will,
in Europe, where we have good numbers in less than that of a very flu.
Another factor which has not been considered are all the cancer patients who aren't being
treated, or all the heart cardiology patients who aren't being treated. I've got estimates of
tens of thousands of people who are basically going to be dying because of lack of that
treatment -- and generally again the age group who die of cancer are younger than the age
group who die of coronavirus.
There's one very easy way to sort of summarize coronavirus. I put an article in the medium
by the pretty famous British statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge [University]
and he had said that the numbers coming from Ferguson suggested that we had to lose about one
year of people. It turns out that I immediately wrote an article in the same medium and
replied to him, saying that in fact the answer was actually one month, not one year. So
basically my feeling is, and it's being supported by the numbers, is that the amount of
excess death you need to reach saturation, I'm not going to call it herd immunity, where the
virus by itself stops, is on the order of four weeks of excess. Now to give you some idea in
the European area where there is good monitoring, by a website called EuroMoMo , run out of Denmark, which covers about 300
million people. Every week in Europe in that area there's around 50,000 natural deaths. So in
four weeks there will be about 200,000 extra deaths in that year -- and it looks like
coronavirus in Europe where it's no doubt that it's the most severely hit area in the world
-- we'll probably reach around 200,000 or 4 weeks worth.
Q: So what happens if what you're saying is there's a sort of statistical observation
which is around four weeks of excess death and then the pandemic seems to peter out, or begin
to flatten out. What does that mean policy-wise for these European countries then?
A: If we could protect the old people perfectly, then the death rates would be very, very
low. So for example in Europe there were about 140,000 excess deaths in the last nine weeks.
The number of those excess deaths who are younger than 65 is about 10%. So basically 13,000
of 130,000 deaths are actually under 65 years old and if we had simply been able to protect
elderly people then the death rate would have been much much less . But the key thing is to
have as much infection for as little possible death and also do whatever you can to keep the
hospitals full but not overflowing. It's a difficult calculation and the trouble is that in
Sweden there's no political concerns.
The trouble is is that in Israel and I know as well in the United States, everything is
political and therefore nobody could say something like this. They would say, " Ah, but you
are not valuing death -- the thing that should have been done is for the media to stress to
people that everyday somebody dies. These people are essentially in the same age band, and
they die from Corona and other comorbidities, other diseases.
I've become a huge fan of Twitter. I'd never used twitter before and for me Twitter is the
best discussion forum I had seen since I was a student at the Cambridge Laboratory of Natural
Biology. Which is a 26 Nobel Prize winning lab. The best lab in the world. The Twitter
discussion is phenomenal and I'm getting documents from Italy showing that many of the Covid
deaths were either dead before they were tested or else they had up to three other
conditions. There is nothing wrong with this, people die for all sorts of reasons, but the
news should be stressing this and maybe they should be counting it as a 0.1 Covid death.
Countries seem to be racing to have as many Covid deaths as they could, and this is a huge
mistake. In the flu season no one cares about these people. I mean, the total number of Covid
deaths in Europe will be very similar to a severe flu season, and you know, this is serious.
Flu is a serious disease. Maybe we should just shut down the economy during the flu season. I
mean people should have been made to understand it. Unfortunately I think in Britain they
started out wanting to go for herd immunity without too much lockdown, there was then a scary
paper -- which is likely to be retracted -- which influenced Italy as well where basically it
was claimed they were -- [Interviewer interrupts]
Q: I know you had some specific queries about Neil Ferguson's paper; we had him on the show last week . So,
what did you think he got wrong in those models and predictions?
A: His work was on modelling, and around the 10th of February he had his first paper (that
I saw) and in there he was getting a case fatality ratio of around 15%, whereas all my
observations were saying that it was around three or four percent. So I was suspicious: I
looked at the paper very carefully and in a footnote to a table it said "assuming exponential
growth for six days at fifteen percent a day." Now, I had looked at China, and never, ever
seen exponential growth that wasn't decaying rapidly so I was suspicious. My numbers were 10%
of the numbers that Ferguson had obtained. I pointed this out, in a reply in the medium --
which was out there, it's clear nobody has ever seen it but it's there, and I didn't hide it
it just didn't get any likes and this said that it was much more like one month than one year
and have an exchange with Spiegelhalta and Ferguson, where I tried to show my case.
But all I was doing was just simple proportionality using exactly the same profile of --
different ages have different death rates, so there's a profile saying that people over 80
have a certain fraction of the disk [deaths] people between 17 and 80 have a different
fraction -- just using that data and simply saying we want the number of deaths that occurred
on the Diamond Princess to be the same number that we found which was 7 or 8. If you do that,
and then you apply that proportionality to Britain and the USA, you find that for Britain the
half a million drops to about 50,000 and in the United States the two million drops to
200,000. Essentially a year dropping to a month.
Q: And so the the argument that is made here is that whether you believe the infection
fatality rate is point three percent or whether you believe it's point eight percent there is
still a big chunk of the population, the majority population who hasn't had been exposed to
the disease or hasn't had it and therefore if we just let it rip there will be many many tens
possibly even further hundreds according to Professor Ferguson of thousands of deaths and
that's why it's politically totally not an option to be at do anything other than follow this
ultra cautious approach.What do you say to that?
A: The World Health Organization, and epidemiologists in general, can only go wrong if
they give [politicians] a number smaller. If I said it's going to be 1 billion deaths from
coronavirus and it's, "oh, you guys have done what I've said and there's only gonna be a
hundred thousands," that is considered good policy. They overestimated bird flu by a factor
of a hundred, or ten thousand in The Guardian . The Guardian wrote about this. Ebola was
overestimated by a factor of 100 I think. They see their role as scaring people into doing
something. I can understand that and there's something to be said for it. I f you could
practice lock down with zero economic costs, and zero social costs -- let's do it. But the
trouble is that those costs are huge, we're gonna have fatalities from hospitals being closed
down, additional children in trauma, businesses damaged -- maybe less so in the UK because of
the compensation policy -- but certainly massive economic damage in the USA and in Israel,
and in other countries. So you need to balance both of these things.
That is what I don't think is responsible. I n my work if I say a number is too small and
I'm wrong or a number is too big and I'm wrong, both of those errors are the same. If I'm 10
percent too high or 10 percent too low that is okay. It seems that being a factor of a
thousand too high is perfectly okay in epidemiology, but being a factor of three too low, is
too low.
Q: I'm trying to think about what this means for the UK and for these countries that are
trying to work out what to do next.Is your view then having looked at the numbers that if we
had not implemented lockdown we would have seen a fall off anyway is that a fair summary?
A: We could have had smart lockdown. Sweden, for example, doesn't allow gatherings of more
than 50 people. I think a football game would be a really bad idea right now, because people
shout and therefore spray saliva on everyone around them, and they could infect a lot of
people. But you know Sweden is doing fine, their deaths again are very localized to nursing
homes, like they are in England -- it's the same profile.
I think that you know again it's Sweden so all the evidence suggests that. So my
contradiction is the following: Britain, if they had done nothing would have had reported
deaths. Now remember there's a difference of reported death, my numbers are all reported.
This would have four weeks of additional reported death when the numbers actually came in
from what were the real axis death. My guess is they would be less than that so it would not
have been double. It wasn't in the month but maybe one and three quarters or so on. So that
is my feeling -- we're seeing this in Europe we will know the answer in three or four weeks
time. We will know for all of Europe exactly what the excess death of coronavirus was, right
now it's a hundred and thirty seven thousand.
Q: Do you find when you've been making these points -- in the media that you received a
lot of backlash? Do you think there's a lot of political pressure, as an academic and as an
academic you know they're one of your colleagues in Stanford dr. Ioannidis has also put out
studies that seem to become skeptical and has received a lot of political blowback.
A: I went on CNN once when he was CNN Vicky Anderson out of London. I appeared on Fox News
a couple of times basically said this is all just common sense because I appeared on Fox News
CNN wouldn't have me anymore. So basically I have had very clear of things. I had one article
in the Los Angeles Times which did great but since I was not saying things that were too
extreme none of the East Coast newspapers wanted me, they quoted me, but they wouldn't have
me. What's disconcerting is, a few of my academic colleagues -- even relatives -- were very
upset with me. Because in my earlier writing I published a report, the medium report from the
22nd of March but on the 13th or 14th of March I distributed a 19 page report,and three
academics got very upset with me. I think they were totally panicked, and they felt that if
anyone thought this was true they wouldn't lock down as tightly as they should, I'm in fact
friends with all the people again, there are no hard feelings.
Q: Let me leave you with one final question: what's your prognosis, what do you think is
now gonna happen with this what happens next?
A: There will be a reckoning. Maybe countries will start to see that they need governments
that are not necessarily great in rhetoric, but actually thinking and doing. I often go back
and think about what Socrates said 2,400 years ago: use your common sense instead of
listening to the rhetoric of leaders. We have become very influenced by [rhetoric] that. I
think this is another foul-up on the part of the baby boomers.
I am a real baby-boomer, I was born in 1947, and I think we've really screwed up. We cause
pollution, we allowed the world's population to increase three-fold, we've caused the
problems of global warming, we've left your generation with a real mess in order to save a
really small number of very old people. If I was a young person now, I would say, "now you
guys are gonna pay for this."
We have my family whatsapp and very early on I said this is a virus being designed to get
rid of the baby boomers. You know I don't know, I think my wife thinks this is going to be a
take it to the streets thing,and we're gonna have the young people on the street saying you
guys have really screwed up it's time to go. And I always joke with her, saying well at least
I've made lots of friends among the young people, I'll be okay.
But quite frankly you know I've had a great life, and I must say this to all the young
faces in front of me. I have a grandson who's 17. I'd much rather have young people live for
a very long time. That said I do have a mother who's a hundred and five years old living in
London with my brother, she's in lockdown and I talk to her by whatsapp every single day on
FaceTime, and she's fine. She still uses her phone and so on so you know these differences
but
You guys should get out there and do something don't accept this anymore we screwed up too
much
A measure of just how perverse US pharmaceutical markets have become is the "reverse
payment" in which the original manufacturer sues the maker of the new generic version for
patent infringement, then settles by paying the generic maker to go away for several months
before launching its version. If that is intriguing instead of revolting, Drug Wars is for
you.
Feldman and Frondorf have researched all the Food and Drug Administration's generics files
going back to the turn of the century, and found a treasure trove of manipulation, waste and
greed that prove why we need an FDA in the first place. That the FDA is being crippled by all
these shenanigans is criminal. To the tune of billions of dollars a year.
The name of the game is delay. Every month of delay can mean tens of millions of dollars
from consumers and insurers overpaying. A year's delay can easily mean a billion dollars'
profit. The frightening total is that 45% of Pharma revenues worldwide come from American
patients. Because no other country lets them get away with this.
Some of the tactics Big Pharma uses:
-claiming its drug is so dangerous it can only be handled in and by a single named
drugstore, making it unavailable generally, and specifically not to a generics firm wishing
to examine it
-delaying selling a sample to a generics firm for years, until they go away
-changing one tiny aspect of the drug so the generic no longer copies it (could be the
packaging or the directions). Business process patents have nothing to do with drug
efficacy, but count in patent law
-filing a citizen petition questioning the methodology to measure the generic's
performance. The FDA routinely rejects them (some years 100% of them), but Big Pharma keeps
filing to keep delaying
-when a drug firm removes a drug completely, the remaining generic is disqualified from
most formularies because there is no alternative to it. It (ironically) defaults to brand
status itself, and goes unfilled. Pharma then releases a new version, free of generic
competition.
Big Pharma fills the courts with frivolous suits, loads down the FDA with nonsenses
complaints (demanding tests that are already required, for example) and applications, and
stalls. A finding that a drug might be dangerous may not be filed for years – until a
generic appears on the scene. Bogus applications that slow down generic approvals are
routinely rejected – but they serve the purpose by taking up valuable time, at taxpayer
and patient expense. While Drug Wars has a worthy conclusion packed with sensible
recommendations, it is clear Congress will not act on them, and that lifesaving drugs should
not be left to the "free" market.
David Wineberg
Rebecca
L. Elson , Reviewed in the United States on June 28, 2017
This article originally appeared on The Magical Buffet's website on 06/28/2017.
When you read that I'm about to discuss a book called "Drug Wars" your mind probably goes
straight to America's "war" on illegal drugs, but you would be mistaken. There is a war
involving prescription drugs going on right now that many of us had no idea existed. It's one
where pharmaceutical companies always win and the public always loses.
A long time ago, before the mid-80's (I can't believe I called that a long time ago!)
people realized that very few generic drugs were coming onto the market. Wait, let me back up
for those of you who aren't constantly on meds like myself. So in the fashion world designer
label Louis Vuitton sells its "Saint Michel" purse for $1,700. It's a bag, it holds stuff.
You can also find on your better handbag websites what are subtly referred to as "knock off"
versions for a couple hundred dollars. It's also a bag. It also holds stuff. That's
essentially prescription drugs and their generic versions, except in this case the FDA makes
sure that the bags are made of the same primary material. A prescription drug can be hundreds
of dollars, but a generic drug is nearly identical at a fraction of the price. With the state
of health insurance then, and now, there is an interest in generics for public
consumption.
Thus in 1984 The Drug Price Competition and Patent Term Restoration Act, often called the
Hatch-Waxman Act, went into effect to stimulate a generic drug market. The Hatch-Waxman Act
is a great idea. It attempts to strike a balance between capitalism and the common good. When
a pharmaceutical company goes to market with a new chemical that company is given 5 years of
exclusivity. It also streamlined the process for companies looking to bring a generic version
to the market. Thus the originator gets 5 years of market dominance to recoup research costs,
etc. while providing the eventual competition of a generic to make things easier on the
consumer's pocketbook and encourage pharmaceutical companies to get back to the drawing board
to innovate and bring another new drug to market that again gets 5 years of competition free
existence. Pretty elegant, right?
What no one saw coming, but let's face it, those in the know probably did, was that
pharmaceutical companies found ways to extend their periods of exclusivity, which of course
makes things harder on us sickos of America. The use of lawsuits to stall generics going to
market is common, and not surprising once you're reading "Drug Wars". What was shocking was
the collusion between the manufacturers of the original drug and the companies making the
generics. When these companies are in litigation they can fight it out, or settle. Oddly the
settlement involves the manufacturer of the original drug paying obscene sums of money to the
generic, and the generic agreeing to hold off going to market for several more years. There
many ways safe and effect generic drugs are delayed from becoming available, and "Drug Wars"
does an amazing job highlighting them. The authors, Robin Feldman and Even Frondorf, also
make recommendations on how to fix these issues.
If you're into intricate bureaucracies, healthcare in America, and a few laugh out loud
absurdities then you need to read "Drug Wars: How Big Pharma Raises Prices and Keeps Generics
Off the Market" by Robin Feldman and Even Frondorf.
In the warped world of prescription drug pricing, generic drugs can cost more than branded
ones, old drugs can be relaunched at astronomical prices, and low-cost options are shut out of
the market. In Drugs, Money and Secret Handshakes, Robin Feldman shines a light into the dark
corners of the pharmaceutical industry to expose a web of shadowy deals in which higher-priced
drugs receive favorable treatment and patients are channeled toward the most expensive
medicines. At the center of this web are the highly secretive middle players who establish
coverage levels for patients and negotiate with drug companies. By offering lucrative payments
to these middle players (as well as to doctors and hospitals), drug companies ensure that
inexpensive drugs never gain traction. This system of perverse incentives has delivered the
kind of exorbitant drug prices - and profits - that everyone loves except for those who pay the
bills.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The Russian Health Ministry has approved the first domestic drug, called
Avifavir, for treating coronavirus patients, according to a new entry to the national drug
registry. The medicine was developed by the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), a sovereign
wealth fund, and ChemRar, a Russian pharmaceutical investment and R&D group.
"Avifavir is not only the first antiviral drug registered against coronavirus in Russia, but
it is also perhaps the most promising anti-COVID-19 drug in the world. It was developed and
tested in clinical trials in Russia in an unprecedentedly short period of time enabling
Avifavir to become the first registered drug based on Favipiravir in the world", CEO of the
RDIF Kirill Dmitriev said.
The final stage of Avifavir clinical trials involving 330 patients, approved by the national
Health Ministry earlier in the month, is ongoing.
Previously, the new drug underwent several clinical trials at I.M. Sechenov First Moscow
State Medical University, Lomonosov Moscow State University, and other medical and academic
institutions.
Avifavir, is the first Russian direct antiviral drug that has proven effective in clinical
trials. The drug has been used in Japan since 2014 against severe forms of influenza.
ChemRar Group includes R&D service and investment companies in the field of innovative
pharmaceuticals for the development and commercialization of innovative medicines, diagnostics,
preventive care, and new treatments of life-threatening diseases in Russia and abroad.
The Covid-19 pandemic has brought out many disturbing features of our society.
Misinformation, or perhaps more accurately, disinformation, abounds in the service of agendas
ranging from those who interpret the virus as a useful ploy for the construction of a police
state, to Big Pharma and its allies who are moving us toward mass vaccinations, to the
narcissistic views of those who would sacrifice the elderly and ill rather than to be
inconvenienced by being denied access to bars and beaches. Every aspect of the pandemic,
including Trump's own use of HCQ, is being used against the President of the United
States.
At a time when accurate information is essential, the waters are instead muddied by
disinformation in the service of political, ideological, and profit agendas. The
irresponsibility of those putting their self-interests first is extraordinary. It indicates
that the social bond between people that made America a country has been dissolved by greed,
multiculturalism, and Identity Politics. America has become a country without a common
interest. It is a narcissistic state.
This article is limited to the campaign against HCQ. HCQ -- hydroxychloroquine -- has been
in use for 65 years for the prevention or treatment of malaria, lupus, and rheumatoid
arthritis. It is officially labeled a safe drug. Many doctors treating Covid patients have
found and reported HCQ, when used early enough together with zinc and the antibiotic
azithromycin to be an effective and safe treatment.
I have reported and made available many of the reports of HCQ's efficacy and safety. See for
example:
Despite 65 years of safe use, HCQ is alleged to be dangerous and to cause heart attacks. Its
use is officially approved only for "adolescent and adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19."
Generally, by the time a patient is hospitalized the virus has progressed to a later stage in
which treatment is less successful. Studies of HCQ's effectiveness, such as the VA one and
apparently the more recent one reported in The Lancet, are limited to later stage hospitalized
patients and seem to exclude the essential zinc component of the HCQ treatment. In other words,
the studies seem to be designed to exclude from official approval the treatment that doctors
have found most effective. It is not easy for a layperson to know what the studies actually say
as the media report the studies in an anti-Trump manner. For the media, what is most important
is criticism of Trump, not the effectiveness of a treatment.
In contrast, the untested investigational antiviral drug, Remdesivir, which has no record of
safe use and is extraordinarily expensive compared to HCQ, has been given the same clearence
for use. The media is not interested in the effectiveness and safety, or lack of, of this new
and untested drug. Trump isn't taking it, and it is a potential profit-maker for Big Pharma. If
Remdesivir fails, the failure will be used to dispose of the hope for cures and to focus on
vaccination.
It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that HCQ/zinc is being sidelined in order to clear
the way for a profitable vaccine and a vaccination mandate.
But the vaccines are not panning out.
The Moderna vax touted by Bill Gates and Dr. Fauci caused severe illnesses in one-fifth of
the test recipients.
The other fast-tracked vaccine developed by the Oxford Vaccine Group proved ineffective. The
vaccine produced insufficient antibodies to prevent Covid-19 infection.
...
A few years ago the British medical journal, The Lancet , published a paper touting the
safety of HCQ. But this was before HCQ with zinc was found effective if used earlier enough
against Covid-19. Covid-19 turned HCQ's effectiveness into a big problem for Big Pharma's big
profits.
The solution was another study by medical professionals some of whom have ties to Big Pharma
and none of whom, apparently, are involved in the treatment of Covid patients. The study lumps
together people in different stages of the disease and undergoing different treatments. It
touts its large sample, but many of the patients in the sample received treatment too late
after the virus had reached their heart and other vital organs. Most likely the people who died
from heart failure died as a result of the virus, not from HCQ.
To be effective treatment has to stop the virus early. Waiting until the patient must be
hospitalized has given the virus too much of a head start. Every doctor, and there are many,
who reports success with the HCQ treatment stresses early treatment. President Trump used a
two-week treatment with HCQ as a prophylactic as he was constantly coming into contact with
people who tested positive for the virus. Many medical professionals who are treating Covid
patients also use HCQ as a prophylactic.
The Lancet study was a rush job as it was essential for Big Pharma to prevent the spread of
the HCQ treatment and awareness of its safety and effectiveness. The study's authors completed
the data collection around the middle of April and the study was published on May 22. As soon
as it appeared, it was used to close down the World Health Organization's clinical trial of
hydoxychloroquine in coronavirus patients citing safety concerns. Most likely, the trial was
aborted in order to prevent an official agency from finding out that HCQ worked.
The media, of course, used the suspended trial to cast more doubt on Trump's judgment for
recommending and using the treatment, the implication being that Trump had put himself at more
risk from a heart attack than from the virus itself.
The Lancet study claims a high mortality from HCQ treatment, reporting a death rate ranging
from 5.1% to 13.8%. In response to a journalist when asked about this claim, Didier Raoult said
that he and has colleagues have followed 4,000 of their patients so far. They have had 36
deaths and none from heart problems for a death rate of 0.009%. According to The Lancet study,
he should have between 204 and 552 patients dead from heart problems. He has zero. Raoult had
more than 10,000 cardiograms analysed by rythmologists (a special kind of cardiologist)
searching for any sign of heart problems.
NIH's Dr. Fauci denies that Raoult's hard evidence is evidence. On May 27 Fauci said,
without showing shame of his ignorance or his lie, that there's no evidence that shows the
anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine is effective at treating COVID-19.
When hard evidence such as Raoult's is suppressed and misreported while "studies" doctored
to produce a predetermined conclusion that serves Big Pharma profits are rushed into
publication, we know that money has pushed ethics out of medical research. A number of
concerned people have been telling us this for some time. We are past due to listen to
them.
Private medicine is profit driven, which makes it susceptible to fraud. In long ago days
fraud was restrained by the moral character of doctors and the respect for truth of
researchers. These restraints, never perfect, have eroded as greed turned everything, integrity
itself, into a commodity that is bought and sold.
The intent is to bury HCQ as a low cost effective treatment and to put in its place a high
cost alternative whether effective or not, and to supplement this enhancement of profits with
mass vaccination which might do us more harm than the virus itself. Big Pharma could care less.
The only value it knows is profit.
This intent has garnered the support of the French,
Belgium and Italian governments . Using The Lancet study and WHO's termination of its HCQ
trial as the excuse, the French government revoked its decree authorizing HCQ treatment.
Belgium's health ministry issued a warning against the use of HCQ except in registered clinical
trials. Italy's health agency wants HCQ's use banned outside of clinical trials and suspended
authorization to use HCQ as a Covid-19 treatment.
Does this mean that Raoult and his team who by treating Covid patients with HCQ have
achieved the remarkable low death rate of 0.009% are prohibited from using the proven cure to
save lives? Will Raoult and his team be imprisoned if they continue to save lives? What about
the people who will die from the three government's prevention of a safe and effective
treatment? Will France, Belgium, and Italy accept responsibility for these lost lives?
I can't avoid wondering if the revolving door between Big Pharma and the NIH and CDC which
corrupts US public health decisions also operates in France, Belgium and Italy. Are European
health officials elevating themselves by climbing over the dead bodies of their victims?
"... corporate health insurance has far higher administrative costs than single-payer programs like Medicare , and even the much-vaunted Affordable Care Act allows insurers to siphon up to 20% of customers' premiums to corporate profits rather than actual medical care. ..."
"... That's probably why insurance companies have been lobbying for it . They know that such a program would boost their short-term profits, and they know that once such a program is in place, it would be politically difficult to get it repealed and replaced by progressives' far better Medicare for All program. In other words: Democrats' Cobra plan may secure insurance companies' profit-skimming position between Americans and their healthcare providers for decades to come. ..."
Democrats in
Washington are not just passively failing to mount an opposition to Trump. They are actively
helping Republicans. 'This corporate counterrevolution is easiest to see in Democrats' enthusiastic support for Republicans'
legislative response to the coronavirus crisis.'
These are bleak days for America's progressive movement. The
Democratic primary process handed the party's nomination to the candidate with the most
conservative record. Corporate-friendly politicians like the New York governor, Andrew Cuomo,
are using the pandemic to brandish their images and
install billionaires to run things . Progressive lawmakers in Congress are being
steamrolled,
even by their own party's leadership . And a recession is battering the state and local
budgets that fund progressive priorities like education and the social safety net.
Perhaps this is a temporary stall-out – a fleeting moment of retreat in a
two-steps-forward-one-step-back trajectory. After all, polls continue to show that from
workers'
rights to
universal healthcare , a majority of Americans support a progressive policy agenda.
The problem, though, is that Democrats in Washington are not just passively failing to mount
a strong opposition to Donald Trump – they are actively
helping Republicans try to fortify the obstacles to long-term progressive change well after
this emergency subsides.
This corporate counter-revolution is easiest to see in Democrats' enthusiastic support for
Republicans' legislative response to the coronavirus crisis. Democrats' entire 2018 electoral
campaign told America that the opposition party needed to win back Congress in order to block
Trump's regressive agenda. And yet, when the Republicans proposed a bill to let Trump's
appointees dole out government cash to their corporate allies with
no strings attached , this same opposition party mustered not a single
recorded vote against the package. Not one.
Thanks to that, Trump appointees and the Federal Reserve can now hand out $4tn to
politically connected corporations as they lay waste to our economy and steamroll progressive
reforms.
Private equity firms and
fossil fuel companies get new tax breaks as they buy elections and try to lock in permanent
climate change.
These bailouts were part of a larger legislative package that included good things like
expanded unemployment benefits – and so you could argue that Democrats simply had to swallow a bitter
pill and vote yes. Except, they subsequently proposed their own standalone legislation that
would further strengthen the corporate opponents of progressive reform.
For example, there is the Democrats' push to alter the so-called paycheck protection program
(PPP). Those loans were designed to help employees of mom-and-pop enterprises throughout the
country. House Democrats' new stimulus legislation would open up the small business lending
program to what they call "small nonprofits", but their language was crafted to provide the
forgivable loans to industry trade associations. Those lobby groups represent the planet's
biggest corporations – and their political action committees have delivered more than
$191m of
campaign cash to lawmakers in the last two decades.
Democrats have pitched their legislation as a "message" bill that declares their values
– and in this case, they are reassuring Washington power-players that money meant for
workers at neighborhood restaurants, local shops and other mom-and-pop concerns can be raided
by the front groups representing giant drug companies, health insurers and Wall Street firms.
If the legislation passes, it would not merely be an epic tale of greed – the new funding
stream for corporate lobbying groups would bolster the very forces that make sure federal
policy disempowers workers, maximizes private profit and generally protects the ruling
class.
The tragedy is we're already moving in that wrong direction, and chances to change the
dynamic don't come around often
It's an even worse story on healthcare. As 43
million Americans face the prospect of losing private health insurance, Democrats had a
huge opportunity. After Trump himself suggested he wanted the government to
pay healthcare providers directly for treating uninsured Covid-19 patients, they could have
called his bluff and passed
existing legislation to expand a Medicare program that provides actual medical care.
Instead, House Democrats passed a bill to support lightly regulated private insurance
marketplaces and to subsidize existing private insurance plans through a Rube Goldberg machine
known as Cobra – and they passed this giveaway just after receiving an infusion
of campaign cash collected by insurance lobbyists.
Taken together, these initiatives would route yet more public money through a corporate
insurance bureaucracy in hopes that medical care eventually trickles down to Americans who
desperately need it. Such a system is totally inadequate during a pandemic: it doesn't
guarantee healthcare – it only only guarantees insurance coverage, which is so often
denied or restricted when a medical claim is actually filed. Moreover, corporate health
insurance has far
higher administrative costs than single-payer programs like Medicare , and even
the much-vaunted Affordable Care Act allows insurers to siphon up to 20% of
customers' premiums to corporate profits rather than actual medical care.
But then, Democrats' Cobra plan is not merely a financial bailout for insurers – it is
also a political bailout when the industry needs it most. At a time when popular support for
Medicare for All is surging
– when even a Republican president feels the need to make rhetorical (if empty)
gestures toward the concept of government-funded healthcare – the Cobra plan would
use public money to firm up the private health insurance industry's dominance over the
healthcare system, just in time to short circuit a Medicare expansion.
That's probably why insurance companies have been lobbying
for it . They know that such a program would boost their short-term profits, and they know
that once such a program is in place, it would be politically difficult to get it repealed and
replaced by progressives' far better Medicare for All program. In other words: Democrats' Cobra
plan may secure insurance companies' profit-skimming position between Americans and their
healthcare providers for decades to come.
If you get the sense that the fix is in and this is all deliberate, you're not wrong. Many
of the self-styled progressive
advocacy groups in Washington that posture as #resistance leaders turned a blind eye to the
bill's problems and endorsed the legislation shortly after it was introduced, undercutting
progressive lawmakers off the bat.
Making matters worse was the theater on the House floor. During the debate over the
Democratic bill, nine progressive lawmakers made a
public show of voting against the procedural measure to
advance the bill, along with a tiny group of moderates. When it came to the real vote on
actually passing the bill, a larger group of moderates ended up voting against it, but only one
progressive lawmaker, Representative Pramila Jayapal, voted no . Had the progressives and moderates
combined forces on either of the votes, they would have forced the bill back to the drawing
board. Instead, their shenanigans ultimately helped secure the legislation's passage.
Taken together, the spectacle was more confirmation that whatever resistance exists in the
nation's capital, it is so often performance art, rather than anything real.
"Outside groups and House lawmakers need to work together to build a populist bloc –
probably inclusive of moderate Democrats and perhaps even an occasional Republican – who
will stand united to force votes to ensure that our economy does right by ordinary people,"
said David Segal of Demand Progress, pointing to news of a
potential Democratic coalition to buck the party's leadership and support a plan to float
businesses' payrolls through the crisis. "We must make sure that America does not go in the
wrong direction and become even more inequitable because we let unemployment soar, compel
cities and states to implement austerity, force small businesses to shutter and let large
corporations backstopped by the Fed roll them up."
The tragedy is that we're already moving in that wrong direction, and chances to change the
political dynamic do not come around often. As Barack Obama's former chief of staff Rahm
Emanuel (now an investment
banker and TV talking head)
said more than a decade ago during the financial crisis: "Never allow a good crisis to go
to waste – it's an opportunity to do the things you once thought were impossible."
Billionaires and corporations are clearly following that advice, aiming to use the pandemic
to grow their wealth and political power in previously unfathomable ways. It would be better if
the opposition party put up a real fight – or at least refused to be complicit in
postponing progress for yet another generation.
David Sirota is a Guardian US columnist and
Jacobin editor at large who served as Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign speechwriter. He
also publishes Too Much Information
newsletter.
In this clip from the Downing Street Corona Briefing on May 11th, Chris Whitty - the UK's
Chief Medical Officer - says that, to most people, the coronavirus is entirely harmless.
Most people will never get it.
Most of the people who get it won't ever experience symptoms.
Most of the people who experience symptoms won't need medical care.
Most of the people who need medical care won't be need emergency or critical care.
And even the tiny percentage of people who need who DO need critical care will survive,
regardless of risk factors or medical history.
COVID-19 may be far less deadly than originally projected - and asymptomatic cases may be
even more common
than first suspected, but for those who have caught it and come down with symptoms, the disease
can result in lasting symptoms, including shortness of breath, lethargy, recurrent fevers,
headaches, itchiness and other mystery problems that
aren't going away .
To that end, a top pulmonologist in the Netherlands says that thousands of Dutch residents
who have recovered from COVID-19 may be left with permanent lung damage , resulting in
decreased lung capacity and difficulty absorbing oxygen.
According to Leon van den Toorn, Chairman of the Dutch Association of Physicians for
Pulmonary Disease and Tuberculosis NVALT, people are underestimating the consequences of the
coronavirus .
"In severe cases, a kind of scar formation occurs, we call this lung fibrosis. The lungs
shrink and the lung tissue becomes stiffer, making it harder to get enough oxygen," Van den
Toorn told Dutch newspaper AD (via the
NL Times ), adding that "there may be thousands of people in the Netherlands who suffered
permanent injury to the lungs from corona."
Of the 1,200 Covid-19 patients who so far recovered after admission to intensive care,
"almost 100 percent went home with residual damage", he said to AD. And about half of the 6
thousand people who were hospitalized, but did not need intensive care, will have symptoms
for years to come.
So far 45,500 people in the Netherlands tested positive for the coronavirus. Many did not
get sick enough to need hospital care. In this group, Van den Toorn expects that permanent
problems will be less serious, but still possible. -
NL Times
Van den Toorn says that patients experiencing lung issues should immediately see a
pulmonologist, as "there may be a low oxygen level in the blood, which is harmful to the
body."
"People with a history of corona infection should be monitored closely to see if recovery is
complete," he added.
Drilling down on lung issues, let's
flash back to March , when a New Orleans respiratory therapist dealing with coronavirus
patients told ProPublica that coronavirus patients suffering from acute respiratory distress
syndrome (ARDS) are extremely difficult to oxygenate .
"Normally, ARDS is something that happens over time as the lungs get more and more inflamed.
But with this virus, it seems like it happens overnight . When you're healthy, your lung is
made up of little balloons. Like a tree is made out of a bunch of little leaves, the lung is
made of little air sacs that are called the alveoli. When you breathe in, all of those little
air sacs inflate, and they have capillaries in the walls, little blood vessels. The oxygen gets
from the air in the lung into the blood so it can be carried around the body.
"Typically with ARDS, the lungs become inflamed. It's like inflammation anywhere: If you
have a burn on your arm, the skin around it turns red from additional blood flow. The body is
sending it additional nutrients to heal. The problem is, when that happens in your lungs, fluid
and extra blood starts going to the lungs. Viruses can injure cells in the walls of the
alveoli, so the fluid leaks into the alveoli. A telltale sign of ARDS in an X-ray is what's
called 'ground glass opacity,' like an old-fashioned ground glass privacy window in a shower.
And lungs look that way because fluid is white on an X-ray, so the lung looks like white ground
glass, or sometimes pure white, because the lung is filled with so much fluid, displacing where
the air would normally be. "
...
"It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I
was like, Holy shit, this is not the flu . Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air,
pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth . The ventilator should have
been doing the work of breathing but he was still gasping for air, moving his mouth, moving his
body, struggling. We had to restrain him. With all the coronavirus patients, we've had to
restrain them. They really hyperventilate, really struggle to breathe . When you're in that
mindstate of struggling to breathe and delirious with fever, you don't know when someone is
trying to help you, so you'll try to rip the breathing tube out because you feel it is choking
you, but you are drowning . ay_arrow 3 play_arrow
Bananamerican , 5 hours ago
Oxygen toxicity, caused by excessive or inappropriate supplemental oxygen, can cause
severe damage to the lungs and other organ systems. High concentrations of oxygen, over a
long period of time, can increase free radical formation, leading to damaged membranes,
proteins, and cell structures in the lungs. It can cause a spectrum of lung injuries ranging
from mild tracheobronchitis to diffuse alveolar damage.
smacker , 4 hours ago
I think you're right about ventilators being the wrong treatment. According to some
doctors the patients needed oxygen not ventilation.
I spotted here in Brazil, patients were being placed inside plastic oxygen tents neatly
fitted over the top half of their beds. So their breathing remained natural.
Did you know that the regular run-of-the-mill pneumonia causes lung damage and a host of
other problems.
You would know that if you read up on it at the CDC and NIH website.
But just keep being an ignorant brainwashed dumb-***.
Getitright2016 , 7 hours ago
As soon as symptoms appear, a person should be treated. Waiting for shortness of breath is
too late. Damage has been done. Early treatment, blood thinners, HCQ with zinc and
Antibiotics Zpac to prevent pneumonia.
INeverForget , 7 hours ago
**** THAT "Z-PACK".
Harnar , 7 hours ago
Z-pack gave my mother in law afib (Atrial fibrillation). Although the doctor said it was
just coincidence that 3 days after starting Z-pack she was in the hospital with chest pains
and needed to be on beta blockers for the rest of her life....
Unfortunately she isn't always good about remembering her pills and died a couple years
later due to a brain aneurysms (which can occur if you come off beta blockers too fast or
forget to take them for a few days after taking them regularly for a year)
OutaTime43 , 8 hours ago
Lung injuries happen with Pneumonia. When your cells are killed by the virus, then they
are replaced with fibroid tissue (scar tissue) just like any other injury. This is of course
a problem with Lungs as it reduces vital capacity. If you smoke or have other lung diseases,
then it affects you more. When you're young with healthy lungs, then the damage isn't enough
to affect you.
I've had CT scans of my lungs and they can still see the damage caused to my lungs from
pneumonia at age 5.
charlie_don't_surf , 8 hours ago
Details??? When they don't give details be suspicious. Were these very old patients with
already damaged lungs? Are these former ventilator patients and their lungs were damaged by
the ventilator? Were these patients with particular genetic weaknesses or predispositions
regarding lung tissue? Until there are exact details of patient demographic, pre existing
disease, and the nature of their treatment take with a grain of salt.
MX_DOGG , 8 hours ago
Approximately 22.4% of adults in the Netherlands smoked in 2018. This includes 16.0% daily
smokers and 6.4% occasional (non-daily) smokers . Of people in the Netherlands who reported
smoking , 71.6% smoked every day
charlie_don't_surf , 8 hours ago
the smart people tell you that extensive data collection shows that 50's and under have an
extremely low risk, the vast majority of deaths are extremely old, in nursing homes and the
smart also will tell that the death rate was jacked up by Cuomo and some other NE dem state
guvs ordering infected patients be put in the nursing homes to increase infections and deaths
and the smart people will also tell you that destroying the economy will definitely greatly
increase injuries, illnesses and premature death...brah...that's what smart people will tell
ignorant stiffs like you but it's like talking to a tree stump...brah.
charlie_don't_surf , 8 hours ago
that's probably damage from over expansion from ventilators or just inflammation can cause
capillary breakage...capillaries are weak and break easily when stressed and then of course
they clot...because they clotted is normal and not a "clotting disease"...I would bet similar
happens when people get a bad pneumonia...lungs bleed from tuberculosis too...probably any
significant infectious process in lungs will cause bleeding...I had bleeding from strep
throat when I was in college.
John C Durham , 9 hours ago
This happens where ever one doesn't get an anti-viral drug from his doctor at his office
in the first day or so. The Viral attack comes and goes in about 7 days.
An anti-viral drug does no good after that and giving anti-viral drugs to a hospital
patient when the viral attack is long past, just loads them up with more toxins. This has
been known since Hydroxychloroquine was given against SARS years ago. It worked great there
early on and many doctors starting using it again for the current big panic.
It does nothing later as demonstrated in a recent study that is being used as firepower
against that drug instead of against any doctor prescribing it for late treatment in the
hospital.
Hydroxychloroquine should be in everyone's medicine cabinet, available over the counter,
to be used against flu, colds and any virus starting on the first day. It's safer than an
aspirin and much safer than Tylenol and I bet you have had either or both in your cabinet
before without triggering WWIII.
She Love Me Long Time , 9 hours ago
Just like politics, the herd has separated into two sides.
Side A -- Shut it all down, nobody should ever work again, we're all going to die, give me
some money.
Side B -- There is no virus, it's all an elaborate NWO conspiracy. Open up everything.
Only pussies wear masks.
Is it really so difficult to see that both sides are wrong?
Yes, there is a virus. No, it won't kill us all. It's more deadly than the flu but it's
not the ******* plague. However, this could be the equivalent of an airborne HIV-type of
infection that results in chronic long-term health issues and a weakened immune system. If
that's true, wearing an N95 mask when you're at the grocery store, even if it makes you look
like a sissy, is the smart thing to do.
Just my 2 cents
Drachma , 9 hours ago
The important test would be to determine how many of the worst affected were regular
vaccine recipients, especially the flu vaccine, which has been linked to the phenomenon of
viral interference, There are at least two proposed related mechanisms of action contributing
to an enhancement of disease with subsequent respiratory viral infections, especially
coronavirus, after vaccination with influenza vaccine. On the one hand there is an
inflammation and scarring of the interstitial membrane of the lungs, subsequent to influenza
inoculation, which lessens oxygen transfer to the blood. On the other hand there is an
overreaction by the immune system at the time of the secondary infection with coronavirus, as
the cross-reactivity from influenza group antibodies, in this case, acts to over-stimulate
the immune system, leading to excessive tissue damage and compounding the disease
symptoms.
Vaccines, by their very nature, are contaminated with RNA and DNA from latent and dormant
viruses from different species cell lines. Since one of the most ubiquitous viruses in the
mammalian cell lines is coronavirus, and many different mammalian as well as avian cell lines
are used to produce vaccines, chances are that most people with a government-scheduled
vaccine history are already infected with coronavirus. Ponder that subject for a while.
Cardinal Fang , 9 hours ago
I'm no radiologist but those 3 CT scans are of different people so it is not a
progression.
It appears they are from Chinese study.
So you can throw that data out the window.
Fiscal Reality , 9 hours ago
Democrat Governors LOVE to kill geezers in nursing homes. Facts matter Cuomo,
Murphy,Waltz, Wolf and Witmer.
While Fauxi, Birx, the MSM, Soros, the WHO, the CDC and the DNC/CCP scream SOCIAL
DISTANCING AND WEAR YOUR MASK, Dem governors build a big body count by pushing COVID infected
patients back into nUrsing homes. MONEY MATTERS MORE THAN LIVES.
Aug 1, 2019 - In May 2016, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published an article with
the headline: Medical error -- the third leading cause of death in the U.S. The article
estimated that as many as 250,000 deaths per year in the United States were caused by
medical error.
PrivetHedge , 9 hours ago
gasping for air, pink frothy secretions
That is a lung damaging cytokine storm that can be moderated with vitamin D and C,
vitamins our government is staying remarkably quiet about. In a politics free medical system
no patient would be allowed to get to that stage.
There are simple cures to these diseases:
Stop Fort Detrick etc. from making them
Use interferon 1, hydroxychloroquine, zinc and antibiotics to cure people before they
are permanently damaged.
Allow people to get sunshine and fresh air, and instead of banning useful medicines;
ban junk food, GMO and the various other harmful things our government permits in our air
and water.
Uncle Frank , 5 hours ago
Why? We didn't buy it the first time.
Don't lose sight of an important fact, one of the few verifiable ones in the piece -
His title - 'Chairman of the Dutch Association of Physicians for Pulmonary Disease and
Tuberculosis'.
Ya think he might be motivated to go for grants by hyperbolizing the situation? I do. I'm
not saying that some people aren't dying, just that pneumonia isn't ever a walk in the park,
and it kills 100's of thousands every year. Try some perspective, and grow a pair. You might
need to lose 100 lbs too, I can't tell from here.
JSG , 9 hours ago
Let's see the demographics of these folks. It's an incomplete story without that. My bet:
it's people over 70 with pre-existing conditions so this is not remotely surprising. Their
immune systems aren't as strong. Their pre-existing conditions likely already causes a lot of
this damage (e.g. COPD does exactly this!)
PrivetHedge , 9 hours ago
(as directed by CCP military to the lab people)
The evidence says the CCP were the targets, not the makers.
Those who claim that China knowingly released this virus in China and elsewhere in Asia to
attack America(!) conveniently ignore the vaping disease which was actually a severe
respiratory infection.
Then there were multiple deaths in nursing homes by similar infections. All this happened
months before CovID-19 came along.
Roacheforque , 10 hours ago
The question is ... is COVID 19 alone CAUSING this reaction, or is it TRIGGERING an immune
system response from "something else"?
"It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad.
I was like, Holy ****, this is not the flu . Watching this relatively young guy, gasping
for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth . The
ventilator should have been doing the work of breathing but he was still gasping for air,
moving his mouth, moving his body, struggling. We had to restrain him. With all the
coronavirus patients, we've had to restrain them. They really hyperventilate, really
struggle to breathe . When you're in that mindstate of struggling to breathe and delirious
with fever, you don't know when someone is trying to help you, so you'll try to rip the
breathing tube out because you feel it is choking you, but you are drowning .
France bans use of hydroxychloroquine as coronavirus treatment
The country's public health agency advised against use outside of clinical trials. https://tinyurl.com/ybm266qn
WHO pauses study of hydroxychloroquine in global trial
The study has enrolled 3,500 patients in at least 17 countries since March. https://tinyurl.com/ya8b4yuw
US coronavirus death toll tops 100K as Trump pushes to reopen
The tragic milestone revives debate over the handling of the pandemic. https://tinyurl.com/ybpzormy
A day before the U.S. reached the 100,000-death mark, Trump once again blamed China for not
stopping the virus before it spread across the globe, and touted his decision in January to
restrict travel from China to the U.S.
"For all of the political hacks out there, if I hadn't done my job well, & early, we
would have lost 1 1/2 to 2 Million People, as opposed to the 100,000 plus that looks like
will be the number," he tweeted on Tuesday.
Yes, folks, *Trump* is claiming *credit* for saving 1-2 million lives! You can't make this
shit up!
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minds at ease.
Using the Care Smart app 2 caregivers can add up to 10 trusted
contacts 3 as well as manage useful things like medication reminders and location
alerts.
A large easy-to-read display, simple navigation and pre-set text replies make Care
Smart a trusted, everyday companion that seniors and caregivers can rely on. Stay connected
with your loved ones with the Care Smart watch and Verizon, America's most awarded network. See
Less
Simple to stay in touch.
Care Smart comes with a number of pre-loaded messages making it easier than ever for seniors
to respond to text messages. An easy-to-read screen displays the date and time and streamlined
3-touch navigation for accessing contacts, placing calls or sending texts makes this smartwatch
a snap to use.
Helpful functions, like a timer, stopwatch, volume and ringtone controls allow
the wearer to customize their watch to their lifestyle. Care Smart helps seniors stay
effortlessly connected with loved ones with easy-to-use functions and simplified calling and
texting.
Only connect with those you trust. With the Care Smart app caregivers can set up to 10 trusted
contacts in the senior's watch for calling or texting. And only those predesignated contacts
can call or text the wearer, eliminating the worry of fraudulent callers getting in touch with
seniors. 3
"... The failure of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) against COVID-19, with nearly four times the annual budget of the WHO, is visible to the world. The CDC failed to provide a successful test for SARS-CoV-2 in the critical months of February and March , while ignoring the WHO's successful test kits that were distributed to 120 countries. ..."
"... Trump has yet to hold his administration and the CDC responsible for this criminal bungling. This, more than any other failure , is the reason that the U.S. numbers for COVID-19 are now more than 1.5 million and about a third of all global infections. Contrast this with China, the first to face an unknown epidemic, stopping it at 82,000 infections, and the amazing results that countries such as Vietnam and South Korea have produced. ..."
"... Taiwan was the first to inform the WHO of human-to-human transmissions in December, but was completely ignored. ..."
"... "Just how evil does this situation become? Is the general leadership of the American political economy trying to be evil just for the fun of it?" ..."
"... And at what point does the general indifference to this state of affairs that still, incredibly, obtains, turn over into mass outrage and condemnation? Skrelli, Bayer, and all the rest are frelling evil. Extortion writ large, with easily preventable death and suffering. ..."
"... As you note it's about profits. One of the disturbing condemnations of the now fading American Century, which most USians remain contentedly oblivious to is that during their watch as global hegemon, the US, in what can be seen, in the best light, as bad faith, worked to undermine the democratic functionality of international cooperative organizations like the WHO, the UN, etc. ..."
"... The intention of granting copyrights and patents was noble, to provide a limited monopoly on an invention or literary work for a limited period. IP has been distorted and twisted, extended to insane time limits to protect works that for any common sense thinkers have already become public domain (see, e.g. the Happy Birthday song, Mickey Mouse or re-formulation of a drug that's gone out of patent). Software should have had its own IP regime but that ship has sailed (thanks Bill G.). ..."
Donald Trump launched a new vaccine war in May, but not against the virus. It was against
the world. The United States and the UK
were the only
two holdouts in the World Health Assembly from the declaration that vaccines and medicines
for COVID-19
should be available as public goods , and not under exclusive patent rights. The
United States explicitly disassociated itself from the patent pool call, talking instead of
"the critical role that intellectual property plays" -- in other words, patents for vaccines
and medicines. Having badly botched his COVID-19 response, Trump is trying to redeem his
electoral fortunes in the November elections this year by promising an early vaccine. The 2020
version of Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan is shaping up to be, essentially, "
vaccines for us" -- but the rest of the world will have to queue up and pay what big pharma
asks, as they will hold the patents.
Trump has yet to hold his administration and the CDC responsible for this criminal
bungling. This, more than any
other failure , is the reason that the U.S. numbers for COVID-19 are now more than 1.5
million and about a third of all global infections. Contrast this with China, the first to face
an unknown epidemic, stopping it at 82,000 infections, and the amazing results that countries
such as Vietnam and
South Korea have produced.
One issue is now looming large over the COVID-19 pandemic. If we do not address the
intellectual property rights issue in this pandemic, we are likely to see a repeat of the AIDS tragedy . People
died for 10 years (1994-2004) as patented AIDS medicine was priced at $10,000 to $15,000
for a year's supply, far beyond their reach. Finally, patent
laws in India allowed people to get AIDS medicine at less than a dollar a day , or $350 for a year's supply.
Today, 80
percent of the world's AIDS medicine comes from India. For big pharma, profits trumped
lives, and they will continue to do so, COVID or no COVID, unless we change the world.
Most countries have compulsory licensing provisions that will allow them to break patents in
case of epidemics or health emergencies. Even the WTO, after a bitter fight, accepted in its
Doha Declaration (2001) that countries, in a health emergency, have the right to allow any
company to manufacture a patented drug without the patent holder's permission, and even import
it from other countries.
Why is it, then, that countries are unable to break patents, even if there are provisions in
their laws and in the TRIPS Agreement? The answer is their fear of U.S. sanctions against them.
Every year, the U.S. Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) issues a Special
301 Report that it has used to threaten trade sanctions against any country that tries to
compulsorily license any patented product.
India figures prominently in this report year after year, for daring to
issue a compulsory license in 2012 to Natco for nexavar, a cancer drug Bayer was selling
for
more than $65,000 a year . Marijn Dekkers, the CEO of Bayer, was quoted widely that this
was "theft," and "We did not develop
this medicine for Indians We developed it for Western patients who can afford it."
This leaves unanswered how many people even in the affluent West can afford a $65,000 bill
for an illness. But there is no question that a bill of this magnitude is a death sentence for
anybody but the super-rich in countries like India. Though a number of other drugs were under
also consideration for compulsory licensing at that time, India has not exercised this
provision again after receiving U.S. threats.
It is the fear that countries can break patents using their compulsory licensing powers that
led to proposals for patent pooling. The argument was that since many of these diseases do not
affect rich countries, big pharma should either let go of their patents to such patent pools,
or philanthropic capital should fund the development of new drugs for this pool. Facing the
pandemic of COVID-19, it is this idea of patent pooling that emerged in the recent World Health
Assembly , WHA-73. All countries supported this proposal, barring the
United States and its loyal camp follower, the UK . The
United States also entered its disagreement on the final WHA resolution, being the
lone objector to patent pooling of COVID-19 medicines and vaccines, noting "the critical
role that intellectual property plays in incentivizing the development of new and improved
health products."
While patent pooling is welcome if no other measure is available, it also makes it appear as
if countries have no other recourse apart from the charity of big capital. What this hides, as
charity always does, is that people and countries have legitimate rights even under TRIPS to
break patents under conditions of an epidemic or a health emergency.
The United States, which screams murder if a compulsory license is issued by any country,
has no such compunction when its own interests are threatened. During the anthrax scare in
2001, the U.S. Secretary of Health issued a threat to
Bayer under "eminent domain for patents" for licensing the anthrax-treatment drug
ciprofloxacin to other manufacturers. Bayer folded, and agreed to supply the quantity at a
price that the U.S. government had set. And without a whimper. Yes, this is the same Bayer that
considers India as a "thief" for issuing a compulsory license!
The vaccination for COVID-19 might need to be repeated each year, as we still do not know
the duration of its protection. It is unlikely that a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will
provide a lifetime
immunity like the smallpox vaccine. Unlike AIDS, where the patient numbers were smaller and
were unfortunately stigmatized in different ways, COVID-19 is a visible threat for everyone.
Any attempt to hold people and governments to ransom on COVID-19 vaccines or medicines could
see the collapse of the entire patent edifice of TRIPS that big pharma backed by the United
States and major EU countries have built. That is why the more clever in the capitalist world
have moved toward a voluntary
patent pool for potential COVID-19 medicines and vaccines. A voluntary patent pool means
that companies or institutions holding patents on medicines -- such as remdesivir -- or
vaccines would voluntarily hand them over to such a pool. The terms and conditions of such a
handover, meaning at concessional rates, or for only for certain regions, are still not clear
-- leading to criticism that a voluntary patent pool is not a substitute for declaring that all
such medicines and vaccines should be declared global public goods during the COVID-19
pandemic.
Unlike clever capital, Trump's response to the COVID-19 vaccine is to thuggishly bully his
way through. He believes that with the unlimited money that the United States is now willing to
put into the vaccine efforts, it will either beat everybody else to the winning post, or
buy the company that is
successful . If this strategy succeeds, he can then use "his" COVID-19 vaccine as a new
instrument of global power. It is the United States that will then decide which countries get
the vaccine (and for how much), and which ones don't.
Trump's little problem is that the days of the United States being a sole global hegemon
passed decades ago. The United States has shown itself as a
fumbling giant and its epidemic response
shambolic . It has been unable to provide virus tests to its people in time, and failed to
stop the epidemic through containment/mitigation measures, which a number of other countries
have done.
China and the
EU have already agreed that any vaccine developed by them will be regarded as a public
good. Even without that, once a medicine or a vaccine is known to be successful, any country
with a reasonable scientific infrastructure can replicate the medicine or the vaccine, and
manufacture it locally. India in particular has one of the largest
generic drug and vaccine manufacturing capacities in the world. What prevents India, or any
country for that matter, from manufacturing COVID-19 vaccines or drugs once they are developed
-- only the empty threat of a failed hegemon on breaking patents?
Clearly the Trump and Johnson administrations are completely wrong in not supporting that
all COVID vaccines and medications be declared as public goods. This is an unprecedented
global threat requiring unprecedented global response.
But as a Canadian I have to reluctantly admit, there are legimate reasons to oppose the
WHO. Trump like a broken clock can be correct twice a day, even if he is wrong the other 1438
times a day.
The worst offence is that the WHO (World Health Organisation) is suppose to represent the
world, and yet it deliberately excludes Taiwan, which it a known part of the world with 24
million people.
Taiwan was the first to inform the WHO of human-to-human transmissions in December, but
was completely ignored. And Taiwan has best handled its response to the pandemic.
Personally I think that all countries should stop supporting the WHO until it restores
Taiwan's observer status it previous had until 2016. The only other reasonable option would
be to create an alternative health organisation to the WHO which does not exclude any part of
the world.
The WHO also has other failings, including corruption, exorbitant travel expenses, and an
unqualified president beholden to the CCP. But these failings pale in comparison to Taiwan's
exclusion, and hopefully the other failings can be fixed within the organisation.
"Just how evil does this situation become? Is the general leadership of the American
political economy trying to be evil just for the fun of it?"
And at what point does the general indifference to this state of affairs that still,
incredibly, obtains, turn over into mass outrage and condemnation?
Skrelli, Bayer, and all the rest are frelling evil. Extortion writ large, with easily preventable death and suffering.
it did NOT begin with trump.It's been there for most of my life. What will it take for ordinary people to get mad enough about it all to do something about
it?
Even in this article, the unspoken assumption is that our hands are somehow tied that these
corps have agency far beyond anyone else's but those corps can be seized, and exist only at
the pleasure of governments in the places they pretend to exist in.
They are a human creation an Egregore, set tottering about as if it were willful and
alive
but even Lefties treat them as untouchable godlike entities "oh, well lets appeal to
"Benevolent Capital, instead "
"Behold, I show you the last man.
'What is love? What is creation? What is longing? What is a star?' thus asks the last man,
and blinks.
The earth has become small, and on it hops the last man, who makes everything small. His race
is as ineradicable as the flea; the last man lives longest.
'We have invented happiness,'say the last men, and they blink. They have left the regions
where it was hard to live, for one needs warmth. One still loves one's neighbor and rubs
against him, for one needs warmth
One still works, for work is a form of entertainment. But one is careful lest the
entertainment be too harrowing. One no longer becomes poor or rich: both require too much
exertion. Who still wants to rule? Who obey? Both require too much exertion.
No shepherd and one herd! Everybody wants the same, everybody is the same: whoever feels
different goes voluntarily into a madhouse.
'Formerly, all the world was mad,' say the most refined, and they blink
One has one's little pleasure for the day and one's little pleasure for the night: but one
has a regard for health.
'We have invented happiness,' say the last men, and they blink.""
As you note it's about profits. One of the disturbing condemnations of the now fading
American Century, which most USians remain contentedly oblivious to is that during their
watch as global hegemon, the US, in what can be seen, in the best light, as bad faith, worked
to undermine the democratic functionality of international cooperative organizations like the
WHO, the UN, etc.
Thus when emergencies arise such as international diplomatic crisis or pandemics, it is
found these organisations have been rendered untrustworthy, corrupted and unreliable;
unsuited to purpose. American exceptionalism?
It is clear now that the USA will not fund a national public health system to fight the
coronavirus epidemic. The only conclusion is the reason is to allow Pharmaceutical
Corporations to make huge profits by marketing patented drugs and vaccines to treat the
illness; if and when, they become available sometime in the future.
Due to incompetence, lack of money and bad messengering; the economic reopening of the USA
could kill close to a million Americans. To Republicans and Libertarians, this is of no
concern. Democrats may acknowledge the deaths but say they are unavoidable.
For the Elite keeping their wealth is more important than spending a portion to prevent
the huge costs in lives and treasure that will come once the Wuhan Coronavirus is established
across North America like the related common cold.
This is a teachable moment on the immorality of all "intellectual property". I am pleased to see that so many countries – other than the US and the UK –
can get together on the common decency of allowing everyone to live, and set that above the
"justice" of paying off intellectual property assignees. But these countries still have some
ways to go in understanding that this applies to all information. That the creation of
information can never be a living – in contrast to a living based on the creation of
essential goods and services, about which we are learning so much right now! – and that
information can never be owned.
They do not yet fully comprehend that all claims to own and extract rent from information
are in fact crimes against humanity.
The intention of granting copyrights and patents was noble, to provide a limited monopoly
on an invention or literary work for a limited period. IP has been distorted and twisted,
extended to insane time limits to protect works that for any common sense thinkers have
already become public domain (see, e.g. the Happy Birthday song, Mickey Mouse or
re-formulation of a drug that's gone out of patent). Software should have had its own IP
regime but that ship has sailed (thanks Bill G.).
Either a giant reform is due or people will ignore the law and infringe the IP. Chinese
companies do it with impunity. Maybe they're right to do so.
Patent applications for the top 20 offices, 2018
Rank Country Patent applications
1 China 1,542,002
2 U.S. 597,141
3 Japan 313,567
4 South Korea 209,992
If one sums up USA patent applications vs Asia (China, Japan, SK), it is USA 597K vs Asia
2066K.
So Asia is putting in patent applications, vs the USA, at a 3.46 multiple vs the USA.
It will be interesting to see if the USA attitude about the sanctity of intellectual
property changes when important key patents are held by the rest of the world.
Teachable moments. This could get really interesting if China or a non US & associated puppets develops
an effect Covid treatment first.
I will dream of something like this: China develops vaccine, offers it free to US on condition it reduce it's Dept of War &
Aggression by 80% and honor all existing and recently existing arms control agreement, and
withdraws it's Naval forces though out the world and confines them to the North Atlantic and
California coast.
I wonder if a geopolitically powerful nation/bloc of nations such as China/India/etc might
announce that they disregard pharma IP, & announce that they will adhere to the economist
Dr Dean Baker-type policy of open source pharma R&D/recipe publication, any private
manufacturer may manufacture & sell the resultant pharma SKU. I am referring to any type
of pharma or medical device (such as ventilators), not just a COVID-19 vaccine. I would
guesstimate that the "soft power" & goodwill generated by such a policy would be
extremely beneficial to those nation(s). Furthermore, the US if it tried to retaliate via
sanctions or other threats would get a corresponding additional decrease in soft power.
To be honest, in some instances Indian govt practices on pharma are quite bad. It is
extremely hard in some instances to recoup investments at prices they ask for.
As for aerosols over droplets, I've been reading about that for the last month. I thought it
was common knowledge. It's the obvious explanation for why some people get it and others
don't. Fomites - the virus particles on surfaces - are supposedly responsible for only ten
percent of transmission. The question was always to what *degree* aerosols were the
transmission method over droplets. Quite a few articles I read debated that point, with
evidence mounting that aerosols might have equal or more effect than droplets, at least as
secondary transmission. Obviously if someone sneezes or coughs in your face at close range,
droplets are the primary transmission. But there are tons of reports - and even video
demonstrations on Youtube - of how far aerosols can be dispelled by breathing, talking,
yelling, singing and coughs and sneezes. Aerosols can be spread up to 25 feet or more and
hover in the air for up to 45 minutes, if not longer, depending on air temperature, humidity
and air movement. Droplets can turn into aerosols depending on the same factors.
I started early on washing my hands religiously because due to the fact that I do not
interact with hardly anyone in my building or elsewhere except during my supply runs, fomites
would be the most likely way I could catch the virus. I have to use a common toilet - so
touching the door and toilet lid would be my main risk. That's why I bought a thousand food
service plastic gloves which I wear when using the john or going outside the building. When I
return, I remove them by the recommended method, then wash my hands.
Initially I didn't have any masks because the depletion of the supply had already
occurred. Now I have nineteen masks, 14 of which I use and rotate whenever going to the john
or outside the building. I wear it when going to the john because I read recently that
flushing a toilet aerosolizes fecal matter - and any virus particles - present in the water.
In other words, you get a faceful of virus every time you flush a toilet. So close the lid
before flushing. When I return, I wash my hands, remove the mask, then apply hand sanitizer
or wash my hands again - which is the recommended procedure.
I now have an adequate supply of masks, hand sanitizer and disinfectant spray (with some
more of the latter coming), so I think I'm in a good position to reduce my risk. But of
course, as with the rest of life, it's still a crapshoot.
It will be a worse crapshoot as these idiots start crowding places I have to go to for
supplies. I use convenience stores a lot and they tend to be crowded because they are very
small. I also visit the Target store, but they initially had the crowding under control -
because you had to wait in line to get in, which took twenty minutes or more. Now with the
easing of restrictions, they have eliminated the door check, so the store is a bit more
crowded, but not too much. People might still be wary, as has been suggested by some articles
and polls. It's a big store, so ventilation and air movement might be better than a smaller
space.
The question was always to what *degree* aerosols were the transmission method over
droplets
They are not mutually excusive. Aerosol transmission can theoretically occur when a
droplet that contains virus particles dry out and they start chaotically move via Brownian
motion of air molecules.
Looks like the virus does not die instantly in this case. After all it looks like it
survives in dry state on surfaces for a day or two in the absence of sun radiation (depending
on the surface -- longest on steel surfaces, shortest on copper)
Recommends blood thinners in the same manner that the Front-Line COVID-19 Critical Care
Working Group does...
There is another treatment that hasn't received as much coverage possibly because it isn't
one individual drug. It's a broad category of blood thinners called anticoagulants. A recent
pre-proof study of over 2500 patients from the Journal of the American College of Cardiology
showed that anticoagulation can decrease the mortality of critically ill patients with the
coronavirus from a frightening 63% to a somewhat less daunting 29%.
Medical providers, including myself, often use prophylactic doses of blood thinners such
as heparin or enoxaparin to prevent blood clots in hospitalized patients particularly in
those with additional risk factors for blood clots, but now these medications are being
administered to hospitalized patients who have no risk factors for clots other than having
COVID-19.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 28 2020 10:22 utc |
70
"... A prominent Oxford epidemiologist has reportedly called for a more rapid exit from Britain's lockdown, saying the coronavirus pandemic is "on its way out" of Britain after infecting as much as half the population. ..."
A prominent Oxford epidemiologist has reportedly called for a more rapid exit from Britain's
lockdown, saying the coronavirus pandemic is "on its way out" of Britain after infecting as
much as half the population.
Professor Sunetra Gupta says there would be a "strong possibility" that pubs, nightclubs and
restaurants in Britain could reopen without serious risk from Covid-19.
The professor of theoretical epidemiology at the University of Oxford said the UK had most
likely erred on the side of over-reaction in its handling of the crisis, suggesting imposing
the lockdown itself was one such misstep.
Prof Gupta told unherd.com the Government
had brought in the lockdown based on the worst-case scenario modelling of the Imperial College
London.
In March, Imperial College's workings suggested Covid-19 had a deaths-to-cases ratio of as
high as 1.4%, reducing to 0.66% when allowing for undiagnosed cases.
Prof Gupta's Oxford team produced a rival model, also in March, speculating as much as 50%
of Britain's population may have already been infected, and suggesting an infection fatality
rate as low as 0.1%, which she says would be far lower now.
Asked for her updated ratio, Prof Gupta said the epidemic had "largely come and is on its
way out in this country" and that the rate would be "definitely less than one in 1000 and
probably closer to one in 10,000", or between 0.1% and 0.01%.
Prof Gupta said the Government's defence of the lockdown was that it was based on a
plausible, "or at least a possible", worst case scenario.
"The question is, should we act on a possible worst case scenario, given the costs of
lockdown?
"It seems to me that given that the costs of lockdown are mounting, that case is becoming
more and more fragile," she said.
Prof Gupta called for a "more rapid exits from lockdown" based on factors such as "who is
dying and what is happening to the death rates".
She said it was feasible Britain could have fared better with the Covid-19 crisis by doing
"nothing at all" or at least by concentrating on protecting the people most vulnerable to the
disease.
"Remaining in a state of lockdown is extremely dangerous from the point of view of the
vulnerability of the entire population to new pathogens," she said.
"Effectively we used to live in a state approximating lockdown 100 years ago, and that was
what created the conditions for the Spanish Flu to come in and kill 50m people."
Whilst accepting it hard to prove on current evidence, Prof Gupta said there was a "strong
possibility" the UK could return to normal without great risk. Panic Mode , 42 minutes
ago
If you are being furlough and hoping you will getting your job back, Good ******* luck. I
will put my money 80% furlough people won't get their jobs back. This is your government
doing, those ******* politicians.
The government have surely flattened the curve - THE ECONOMY.
AG17 , 43 minutes ago
Finally we are approaching end of Feardemic...
The Shodge , 41 minutes ago
You wish. Better get ready for The Second Wave of Government Terror
Louhnatique , 43 minutes ago
You can tell by these experts' point of view who's paying their bills. None are
independent.
Panic Mode , 52 minutes ago
Yeah, I can't wait for the restaurants to open and see how much fears government have
injected to the consumers, totally destroy their industries. For those who have completely
lost their career, livelihood and their kids future, this is on government, those *******
politicians.
Thanks to the government listening to crook like Neil ******* Ferguson.
Canoe Driver , 53 minutes ago
5,000 government douchebags are now feverishly looking for a different expert.
They have to know already that there are not many 80-year old chain smokers at the local
pub. The continued lockdowns are mostly because they can't be seen to admit it was all a
mistake and a horrible overreaction. Oh, and because they are the ones obsessed with
defeating Trump. Sucks to lose a family business so Gavin Newsom, et al., can try to win a
pissing war with Republicans. But that is what it's come to.
funkyfreddy , 1 hour ago
I guess she thought south Korean clubs could reopen safely until that one guy infected
numerous people at multiple clubs in one night causing them all to be shut again?
Governments throughout the world and across the US justified extreme, draconian,
undemocratic, and unconstitutional (in most US states) "lockdown" and stay-at-home orders on
the grounds that the COVID-19 virus was exceptionally fatal.
In March, the World Health Organization (WHO) was claiming that the fatality rate was a
very
high 3.4 percent .
Yet as time went on, it became increasingly clear that such high estimates were essentially
meaningless because researchers had no idea how many people were actually infected with the
disease. Tests were largely being conducted on those with symptoms serious enough to end up in
emergency rooms or doctor's offices.
By late April, many researchers were publishing new studies showing that the number of
people with the disease was actually much higher than was previously thought. Thus, it became
clear that the percentage of people with the disease who died from it suddenly became much
smaller.
Now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released new estimates
suggesting that the real fatality rate is around 0.26 percent.
Specifically, the report concludes that the "symptomatic case fatality ratio" is 0.4
percent. But that's just symptomatic cases. In the same report, the CDC also claims that 35
percent of all cases are asymptomatic.
Or, as the Washington Post reported this week:
The agency offered a "current best estimate" of 0.4 percent. The agency also gave a best
estimate that 35 percent of people infected never develop symptoms. Those numbers when put
together would produce an infection fatality rate of 0.26, which is lower than many of the
estimates produced by scientists and modelers to date."
Of course, not all scientists have been wrong on this. Back in March, Stanford scientist
John Ioannidis was much, much closer to the CDC's estimate than the WHO. The Wall Street
Journal noted in
April :
In a March article for Stat News, Dr. Ioannidis argued that Covid-19 is far less deadly
than modelers were assuming. He considered the experience of the Diamond Princess cruise
ship, which was quarantined Feb. 4 in Japan. Nine of 700 infected passengers and crew died.
Based on the demographics of the ship's population, Dr. Ioannidis estimated that the U.S.
fatality rate could be as low as 0.025% to 0.625% and put the upper bound at 0.05% to 1% --
comparable to that of seasonal flu.
Not that this will settle the matter.
Proponents of destroying human rights and the rule of law in order to carry out lockdowns
will continue to insist that "we didn't know" what the fatality rate was back in March. The
lack of evidence, however, didn't stop proponents of lockdowns from implementing policies that
destroyed the ability of families to earn a living, and which also created social conditions
that caused child
abuse and
suicides to spike.
But for more sane people, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Those who
have claimed that lockdowns are "the only option" had virtually no evidence at all to support
their position. Indeed, such extreme over-the-top measures such as the general lockdowns
required an extreme level of high-quality, nearly irrefutable evidence that lockdowns would
work and were necessary in the face of a disease with an extremely high fatality rate. But the
only "data" the prolockdown people could offer was speculation and hyperbolic predictions of
bodies piling up in the streets.
But that became politically unimportant.
The people who wanted lockdowns had gained the obeisance of powerful people in government
institutions and in the media . So actual data, science, or respect for human rights suddenly
became meaningless. All that mattered was getting those lockdowns. So the lockdown crowd
destroyed the lives of millions in the developed world -- and
more than a hundred million in the developing world -- to satisfy the hunches of a tiny
handful of politicians and technocrats.
"... "Consumption and hiring started to tick up "in gross terms, not in net terms," Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a "partial rebound." The bounce back "can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. ..."
"... IMO Trump now realizes that he was snookered by the medical equivalent of the Holy Office. Our Auto da Fe has been impressive and nearly fatal but not quite. Trump's statement that he will never shut the economy down again indicates to me that the "scales have fallen" from his eyes. ..."
"... One thing to note are all the diffusion indexes will show large upticks, because of the base effects. U6 will likely be more stubborn. ..."
"... he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the
first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural
disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep
rebound.
The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide
decline in consumption, and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15,
when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman
noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a
hurricane or industry-wide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill." politico
******
"Consumption and hiring started to tick up "in gross terms, not in net terms," Furman
said, describing the phenomenon as a "partial rebound." The bounce back "can be very very
fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you
put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many
businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V."" politico
--------------
Well, pilgrims, there you have it. If Politico thinks so, it must be so. Do I think the
Democratic Party grandees are deliberately suppressing the economy as long as they can and
bitching and whining as the GOP tries to crank up the machine? Yes, I do. Is that criminal?
Should it be criminal? IMO it should be but to prevent the disintegration of the Great
Republic, we must not treat it as such.
IMO Trump now realizes that he was snookered by the medical equivalent of the Holy Office.
Our Auto da Fe has been impressive and nearly fatal but not quite. Trump's statement that he
will never shut the economy down again indicates to me that the "scales have fallen" from his
eyes.
Are his attempts too little and too late? That could be. Or, maybe not.
The brawny beast that is America is gathering itself up, and looking once again at what
CAN BE, not at what is forbidden us by the Globalist nitwits who would destroy us and make us
into building blocks for their utopia. pl
What I don't understand is how prolonging the lockdown of reliably blue states like my own
WA furthers the Democrat election strategy -- assuming it is what you suggest.
It seems to me that when people in those states feel the totalitarian pinch on their own
livelihood, they might be more inclined to vote against the party that's doing it to them,
tipping the state into the purple or even red column.
Same goes for the battleground states. Seems like a surefire way to throw the election,
not win it.
Can someone explain how this is supposed to work?!?
One thing to note are all the diffusion indexes will show large upticks, because of the
base effects. U6 will likely be more stubborn.
The best comparisons will be unit volumes relative to prior to lockdown. For example,
number of flights or gas consumption prior to and after lockdown ends.
One indicator that I track is used car prices. It is starting a nice uptick particularly
for full size trucks. With all the incentives and financing options I would bet we'll see
growth in even new truck volumes .
On the flip side, IMO, the increased debt and the trillions that the Fed printed up for
Wall St will constrain growth in the medium term.
With respect, I don't agree with your view of what has happened from an economic and
medical sense although I agree with your view of the political machinations of the
democrats.
I said when all this started that the economy would bounce back quickly. I still believe
it will. I also believe that the lockdown was necessary, but now it is thought possible to
open up because the medical system and logistics have now caught up with the pandemic. The
lockdowns bought us time.
Fauci, Birx and Co. were talking of easing up three weeks ago at one of President Trumps
press conferences, I watched most of them live. I don't see the medicos as malevolent
globalists or anything other than public health officials doing their jobs under great
pressure and public scrutiny. I don't think they have drunk any of the numerous glasses of
kool aid that were proffered. They appear to me to have stuck stubbornly to the science.
We too are easing lockdown rules - allegedly in "a controlled and measured manner" but
that is actually BS. Everyone is sick of being cooped up and can't wait. We too have one
State leader - a leftist "democrat" that is dragging their feet in Queensland for political
reasons, our equivalent of Florida. Their borders are currently closed - when they reopen
there will be an absolute avalanche of tourists heading North, us included, to get some warm
weather, that will provide a huge economic spike.
Problem is things were frothy before covid, financial markets were well overextended, the
deficit was out of control, oil won't come back anytime soon. In many ways Trump is a lucky
general, gets to blame the slowdown on the virus and any faltering in the recovery on Dem
governors.
Here is a link to a poll that suggests the globalists have screwed up again (see bottom 1/3
of the link). A large % of Americans polled say they will now avoid products made in China
and would be willing to pay more for the same product if it's made in the USA. They also
think that trade restrictions and tariffs are a good idea. Basically, they like the Trumpian
model. China Joe and his boy Hunter are going to be perceived as being on the wrong side of
this issue by Trump.
you are right. We do not agree. IMO the country wide shutdown was never necessary. What
was needed was a strategy of protection for the vulnerable. The rest could have taken care of
themselves with anti-flu like treatment while therapies and vaccines were developed.
The Democrats deserve it and BTW I don't agree with any of the negatives you state with
regard to the pre-COVID state of things. You just don't like Trump. Neither do I
It is the strategy (poorly conceived) of people whose ideology blinds them to extant
reality, and who think they can mold that reality to their whims through sheer fervency of
their belief in their moral superiority to other, "lesser types." I can't think of a single
historical example where such a strategy has worked out, but there you have it. Then again,
according to them, history also fits into that concept of "malleable reality" as they see it.
They are the makers of history in their own estimation, rather than part of and subject to
it. This is why the Left has never been able to grapple with, and is often outright hostile
to, the notion of unforeseen consequences.
This past weekend our hotel parking lots were pretty full, this is normally a slow time in SW
Florida. It's likely restaurants will be allowed 100% capacity seating with bars opening this
coming Monday.
Reasonable people who want a real economy in the USA should all be voting for President
Trump. If he wins, and I think he will, we're going to have a real boom as smart EU money
moves into USA equities, particularly the NASDAQ.
" blame the slowdown on the virus "
Not gonna happen. He's going to blame the Democrats who issued all those EO declaring who was
essential and who was "seperate but equal". He'll blame China, rightfully so, for spreading
this as far and wide in the West as possible; he'll blame the academics and professional
"resistance" within and without the government for their incompetence and intransigence.
Corky,
"Seems like a surefire way to throw the election, not win it."
it doesn't matter who votes, it only matters now who counts them. Thus the statewide mailings
of ballots to maximize ballot harvesting. At the very least lots of local elections will get
stolen, probably a congressional one too, even if WA doesn't go for Trump in November.
"Both viruses remove marker molecules on the surface of an infected cell that are used by
the immune system to identify invaders, the researchers said in a non-peer reviewed paper
posted on preprint website bioRxiv.org on Sunday. They warned that this commonality could
mean Sars-CoV-2, the clinical name for the virus, could be around for some time, like
HIV...that the coronavirus was showing "some characteristics of viruses causing chronic
infection"."
It appears that an Intelligence report that's come out regarding the CCP and their virus by
French Intelligence (DGSE) isn't getting the traction it deserves.
Eleven years, , 'eleven years'BEFORE the EU signed off on the PRC/CCP Wuhan
lab construction, French DGSE warned that the PRC/CCP's lab was a construction leak and
bio-weapon making facility disaster waiting to happen.
Why was nobody listening at the time? Where were the FIVE EYES in all of this, were they
ignoring French Intelligence's warning, what? Where was the CIA in this? They're supposed to
be the 'external' watchdog, right? It was the Tenet/Goss handover time frame, 2004. But
surely the DGSE warnings had to have been 'flagged' by Langley for a closer scrutiny, right?
What was DIA's read on this at the time?
..."French diplomatic and security advisers, who argued that the Chinese reputation for
poor bio-security could lead to a catastrophic leak.
They also warned that Paris could lose control of the project, and even suggested that
Beijing could harness the technology to make biowarfare weapons."...
Another interesting cavet in the article relates to P4 labs everywhere (including U.S.
facilities)..... "A source told the newspaper: 'What you have to understand is that a P4
[high-level bio-security] laboratory is like a nuclear reprocessing plant. It's a
bacteriological atomic bomb."
An interesting development yesterday: Twitter have flagged a couple of Trump's tweets on
mail-in ballots as "Misleading". A link at the bottom of each tweet says "Get the facts about
mail-in ballots" and directs you to a piece written by Twitter on the subject quoting CNN
& WaPo as having contrary views to the President - hardly news in itself.
Are we seeing the beginning of another insurance policy, in case the economy recovers? It
appears to put Trump in a bind, as shutting down or sanctioning Twitter as a whole would not
only deny Trump his (until yesterday) unfiltered comms channel to his base, but also invite
cries of censorship by the MSM. If he does nothing, what is to stop Twitter 'correcting' more
of this messages? In a later tweet Trump directly
accused Twitter of "..interfering in the 2020 Presidential Election". It will be very
interesting to see how this develops. Here is the first of the offending tweets:
@Barbara
If Israel, Mexico, Great Britain, China, Ukraine, Canada, et.al can interfere in American
elections, and the USA can interfere in the elections of any nation it wishes, why should the
Masters and Commanders of the internet be forbidden the same hobby?
Have you never watched Network? https://americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechnetwork4.html
Same as it ever was.
✿【Keep Kids Safe】: When in distress, Kids can press the SOS key for 3
seconds to circularly call families' numbers for help. You can set up to 3 SOS numbers. Great
help for kids in emergency situation. The kids tracker smart watch equipped with positioning
function. When kids are outdoor, Parents can track children's real-time location through the
"Setracker 2" app. But when Kids are indoor or at poor gps signal place, there will be some
deviation in positioning.
How does that affect this specifically? What we see is that the US has a slower
decline in cases than these other nations.
My point is the form of the curve in the USA was partially distorted by the NY
metropolitan areas with its huge and very specific problems and demographics. This area
accounts for around 40% of cases.
Death per million normalize the number of death for the population of the whole county
and that's it.
But my pint is that the USA is not homogeneous country and will never be.
In this sense any "nationwide" statistics for the virus without exclusion of the NY
metropolitan area for the USA is big fat lie. At least it is clear that it distorts the
picture for the rest of the country.
We have core inflation which exclude food and energy, why we can't have death without NY
metropolitan area?
Another important point that the number of death as a statistics is another one big and
fat lie. Or at least is very suspect. I would like to stress that only the difference
between number of death for the particular period and average for several previous years
has scientific value. Not the absolute number.
And what is interesting that for March 2020 COVID-19 epidemic was a lives saver. Such an
interesting paradox.
There are essentially two outcomes of COVID-19 -- one in this pneumonia does not
develop, and the second in which virus pneumonia develops.
The only way to die from the virus is to die from virus pneumonia or complications
(including organs failures due to the lack of oxygen).
Everything else (including gunshot wounds belongs to "with COVID-19" category
and in the USA constitutes probably 80% of reported COVID-19 deaths. In other words, most
of deaths reported are very sick people with significant percentage already of the death
bed.
For people at the end of their life scan coronavirus is often the last straw that break
the camel back, so to speak. Cutting this lifespan for several months or a couple of years
at best.
And there is nothing special for this role of coronavirus. Flu acts exactly the same
way: pneumonia as a flu complication is one of the most common ways for the old sick people
to meet the creator.
Unfortunately we know very little about conditions in which pneumonia develops (there
are probably some generic markers in play as well as sex and a couple of other metrics )
other that the main victims are obese (often morbidly obese), diabetics (which in the USA
is almost synonym with obesity) and hypertonics (those are intersecting categories).
Chances for everybody else to get this (very dangerous indeed) virus pneumonia are
approx. 100-1000 times less.
Britain has had the second highest number of deaths from Covid-19 so far, 36.875 according
to the current count.
Relative to population, it is currently only the fifth:
# Country Deaths /
million
people
1 San Marino 1,251
2 Belgium 808
3 Andorra 658
4 Spain 570
5 United Kingdom 557
6 Italy 546
7 France 424
8 Sweden 390
9 Netherlands 335
10 Ireland 326
11 United States 298
...
Russia 25
...
China 3
America needs a permanent solution for paid sick leave
Posted May 25, 11:26 AM
A recent survey in 2019 found that 53% of hourly service sector workers at 91 large American companies lack access to
paid sick leave. Sick workers can spread disease to other workers and customers and disrupt the firm's ability to
provide services. So why exactly do employers still resist providing paid sick leave?
With the federal government's
enactment of an emergency paid sick leave law to help slow COVID-19, the pandemic has put a spotlight on what should
be a major policy concern in America.
The Trump Administration
passed the
Families
First Coronavirus Response Act
(FFCRA) to extend sick-leave benefits to workers. Still, millions of Americans
working in the fast-food industry and retail sector among others have no protections under the new law.
Under the FFCRA, American
private employers with fewer than 500 employees receive full tax credit reimbursement for the cost of employee sick
leave related to COVID-19. This allows employers to continue paying these workers and avoids forcing workers to
choose between their paychecks and staying home to help contain the virus. A
recent survey in 2019
found that 53% of hourly service sector workers at 91 large American companies lack access
to paid sick leave.
Many of the major national
fast-food chains, grocery stores, retail, hospitality, delivery service providers have more than 500 employees. For
example, 78% of workers surveyed in McDonald's have no paid sick leave. In response to COVID-19, McDonald's is now
offering
14 days of sick leave
for employees at corporate-own stores, however, 95% of the McDonald's locations are owned
by an independent franchise. Many of these franchises have more than 500 employees.
Similarly, Walmart enacted
special sick leave policies
for COVID-19. However, the workers are only eligible for paid sick leave if they get
diagnosed with COVID-19 or formally placed into quarantine by a government agency or by Walmart. With the significant
delays in testing and guidelines for voluntary quarantine, many of these workers may still show up, even if they may
feel sick, to avoid losing wages or losing their jobs.
The United States needs a more
permanent solution. Before the enactment of FFCRA, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.)
introduced
a new emergency paid sick leave bill
in the House and Senate that would mandate seven days of paid sick leave to
all workers, plus an additional 14 days during a public health emergency such as COVID-19.
So why do employers resist
providing paid sick leave without a legal requirement? Although most economists prefer solving problems through
market-oriented policies, many also recognize that markets can be inefficient when a firm's self-interested behavior
is harmful.
Paying sick leave represents
an additional cost that makes it more difficult for a company to keep its prices competitive. A firm's management
might recognize a risk that sick workers could spread disease and disrupt the firm's ability to provide services.
But, that firm might still choose not to pay for sick leave and bear the risk of a catastrophic event. However, if
all firms must provide sick leave, the competitive disadvantage on any one firm is not as great, and the law serves
to level the playing field.
For example, when employers
choose not to provide paid sick leave, there are external effects on anyone who contracts the disease because a sick
worker did not stay home. These could include coworkers, customers, and individuals exposed during the sick worker's
commute, not to mention secondary exposures as those exposed transmit the disease to others. These external effects
are borne both by individuals and by their employers.
Economists often suggest that
public policies, such as new laws, are appropriate to remove or "internalize" these external effects. In this case, a
law requiring employers to provide sick leave would reduce the adverse effects that occur to individuals and other
firms throughout society.
In addition to potential cost
savings in the workplace, paid sick leave will likely generate savings in health care costs.
One study published
in the journal Vaccine
found that paid sick leave is associated with a 30% greater likelihood of being vaccinated against influenza.
Allowing employees with flu to stay home can reduce the spread of workplace influenza infections by
25.3% for leave of "1 flu day"
and 39.2% for
leave of "2 flu days."
Another study published in the
American Journal of Emergency Medicine found that among U.S. private sector working adults, the availability of paid
sick leave is associated with fewer costly emergency department visits.
Since Laurie Garrett's book
The Coming Plague
in 1994, it has been clear that emerging infectious diseases will be a significant and
recurring threat to the United States. We are the only country in the developed world without a federal regulation
for paid sick leave. Given this threat, efforts to protect our country through effective responses should consider
the importance of paid sick leave, especially for low-income workers.
Soumitra S. Bhuyan, PhD,
MPH, is an Assistant Professor of Health Administration at Edward J. Bloustien School of Planning and Public Policy
and a faculty associate at Rutgers Urban & Civics Informatics Lab at Rutgers University. Dr. Bhuyan is also an
Associate Editor at BMJ Global Health.
David K. Wyant, PhD is an
Assistant Professor of Management, The Jack C. Massey College of Business, Belmont University, Nashville Tennessee.
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Garrets Daddio , Reviewed in the United States on September 18, 2019
I wanted to like this and I will start out with the only positive I can think about this
product. It's small and easy to hide.
Originally I was going to give this three stars but the negatives added up and then they
updated the app and made things much worse. You can view history and set alarms on both the
phone app and the web interface. However each interface has different abilities with some
options on one but not the other. The maps looked similar until the phone app updated. The
mess of lines when tracking history became even more unbearable as it lost the function of
telling you the direction of travel on the phone app. You can export a log file but it has no
real support for viewing on google earth, you loose all track lines and are stuck with random
dot points. Pulling up history often limits you to pulling up a full days worth of tracking.
So it's not easy to single out a hour or two of when you knew a particular event happened or
perhaps the time a particular person was driving unless you want to download the file and
alter it using third party software..
Battery life was bad. If you are actually tracking a moving object it takes more power. I
did stretch it out to 2.5 days once or twice but many days I had to charge it everyday. To
overcome this I was going to hard wire it into the vehicle... until they updated the app.
Also note that being discrete in removing and installing it so often to charge the tracker is
difficult to do. Also hard wiring it in defeats the purpose of having a small device. I even
tried the low power setting turning the device off for 15 minutes then on for 5 to take a
reading but it did not help much. Instructions for doing that are pretty much non existent
but you can make these changes on the web interface but not the app. The app was slightly
better at giving you more options for past history as long as it was in the past 24 hours.
But no matter what way you checked history after a day went past you only could view full
days at a time.
At it's best this tracker can update once a minute. This is actually the slowest setting
for other trackers, some update every 3 to 5 seconds. What this means is that often the track
will not follow roads. I also used other trackers that easily lasted 2 full weeks vs 1 day
this unit often gave me. At one minute intervals it was possible to see many stops when other
people got into the car. But reducing the intervals in attempt to save battery life lost the
ability to see people pull over to pick somebody up. It also makes it impossible to determine
what roads were actually used. It does not track data like miles driven like others do.
In terms of functionally I had better luck with free apps on an old cell phone. Oops I
dropped my phone in the car again? Silly me. The "magnetic mount" is actually a magnet
attached to velcro and made no sense to me. The app lost functionality after they updated it.
It also changed to a very plain looking map by default that actually makes it difficult to
figure out the location. You can change the view to something more viewable but it always
changes itself back to the default view I dislike.
Update 10/17/2019
As mentioned before originally I was going to give this a three star review but ended up
giving it one star for all the things I already mentioned. So how did we get to this point? I
am actually giving it five stars at this point.
A representative reached out to me. He was very professional and actually appreciated my
negative input. But more importantly I was under the impression that they strive to make the
product better. I waited to update this review though, perhaps a little too long. I wanted to
see the actions and improvements first. But yeah, customer service and attention to detail
really impressed me.
So what about those improvements that I am talking about? Both the web interface and the
Android app received updates. The battery saving function is now available on all formats and
it was simplified to set up. History can now be looked up without the cluttered mess of
looking at a full day. The map now retains your preferred method of viewing it, the arrows
are back indicating direction of travel. I added another photo so you can see for yourself
the difference between the old app map and the new one that indicates direction of travel.
The app is also less cluttered looking but at the same time gives you more available
information. I no longer have to switch from the app to pc to get all features as everything
is more uniform. I was told they would attempt to add even more features and I believe they
will.
The unit itself is currently selling below the competitors. It accurate. The monthly fee
is also below most competitors. Battery life is still somewhat of a disappointment to me. But
it normally falls between what they claim. For me usually two days as this point but at times
it surprises me with a third day. I can't take a star off for this as it is in a normal
variance and as advertised. However the thing with this device is that you can choose what
you want. A small device that is very lightweight for a kid to carry in a backpack or......
Get the optional battery pack/water proof holder with magnetic mount. The choice is up to
you. I have not used the the extended battery pack yet but it's charging now as I write this.
Although it does add size to the small tracker it does not make it any larger than the
competitors in other waterproof cases. I will perhaps update after I get familiar with how
well the case/extended battery works. For now though this company has completely turned my
opinion around with great customer service
victoria
, Reviewed in the United States on August 23, 2019
I purchased the Tracki with suspicion of my husband's activity and thanks for the Tracki I
was correct, it was a great device and works amazing, I highly recommend it
❗️
rcashley
, Reviewed in the United States on January 3, 2020
I have been using this tracking device for approx. one month now, and I will say it does a
very good job.
For the first week I used it with the original battery. Even though the instructions say
not to put it in the trunk or the engine bay, I tried it anyway, first in the engine bay
(placed high on the inside of the fender) and then the next day in the trunk (high on the
inside of the fender). The tracker did a good job in both places and the accuracy was very
good. The battery life with the original small battery was pretty good, it took about two
days to go down to 50%. I had the settings on 1 minute (the most frequent currently
available). The vehicle wasn't in constant motion all day, so keep in mind, if it was, and
reporting every minute, it would consume more battery, so you could always change to a less
frequent time (5, 10, 15, 30, 45, 60, 120). The history of where the tracker has been is
being recorded based on these reporting times. You can look up past history many ways (the
last few hours or a date range). This info. can be downloaded if needed. I ordered the
waterproof case with the larger battery and have been using that for the last three weeks.
The battery life with it is a huge improvement (it took two weeks to go down to 50%), and I
used it in the trunk and engine bay also with no negative issues. I have talked with Customer
Service a few times to report my thoughts, and I will say, they are as good as anyone could
hope. I have tracked my device with an iPhone/iPad and on a PC using various browsers. I will
say that if you use an iPhone/iPad, and you want to see "live tracking", there are a couple
of apps that you can use. The newer Tracki app still has a few bugs they are working out (as
far as seeing live tracking), but there is another app called Trackimo, and it doesn't have
all the "bells and whistles" of the new app, but "live tracking" works well on it. Keep in
mind the history of the device is being recorded (no matter what app or device you use to
check it), so you can always check it out from any computer with a browser. There are many
applications someone could use this device for, and the tracker is so small, you could put it
anywhere.
rcashley
, Reviewed in Canada on November 26, 2019
I wanted to follow my son when he takes the bus. I also wanted an alert for when the bus
quits the school using the area alert system, but the bus's route is so short that the alert
is not reaching me soon enough, so I have to go to the Tracki website and ping the device
repetitively until I see the bus moving. That way I know when I have to leave work and get to
my son on time.
The fact that the tracker is not as fast as I would have expected and the higher monthly
fee than some other 2G tracking device I've found made it loose one star.
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Cesar Hawn , Reviewed in the United States on January 30, 2019
I'm always working late so my mom with an alzheimer's disease is left at home. Sometimes
she went outside, and buy food and things. One time, I got home like almost 12 midnight and
my mom isn't at home! I found her sitting at the bus station around 3 am. Thank you so much
for this tracker as I can now monitor my mother's location!!
Tina
A. , Reviewed in the United States on June 25, 2019
This tracker works fine but the reporting is not very good. I used to have this same type
of tracker that I purchased from Americaloc but I misplaced it so I thought I would try this
one because the device looked the same but was much cheaper. You get what you pay for! The
reporting features was so much better with the Americaloc GL300W! Reporting is great and very
precise!
Janet
Lord , Reviewed in the United States on February 1, 2019
This is the second tracking device I purchased and this product by far is the most
accurate and reliable. Battery lasted for 10 days which is good because my other tracker only
lasts 4-5 days. Subscription is also very cheap compared to its uses and the option to cancel
it any time.
I've been using GPS trackers to track my (quite expensive) electric bike - just in case it
gets stolen plus to see my routes after I'm done riding. I built it into my bike to where
it's powered by the main bike battery. You can also power it with your car battery with a
DC-DC converter - 12v-to-5v - or just take apart any usb car charger and wire it yourself. I
think that's really the cheapest way because those things only cost like $1-$2 at auto shops
(all it needs is a 5v input). I have another, very similar name-brand tracker (SpyTec) that I
can compare this one too so I'll list out the good differences and the bad differences (Pros
and Cons) below but before you see the cons, I should mention that I still think this GPS
tracker is the way to go:
Pros:
---- Cheaper in the long run: The device is the same price as the SpyTec GPS tracker BUT...
the service is cheaper (for "faster" updates). SpyTec is $25/month updating location every 60
seconds. This one is $20/month (with a 6-month payment deal) for 10 second updates.
---- Seems well-built. Battery ran for well over a week before I decided to recharge (was
down to around 30%).
---- Device appears to be water-tight, just like my other tracker - which is great :)
---- This one has a (usable) app! SpyTec does not.
---- Can export travel logs to
Cons:
---- About 150% larger than the SpyTec GPS tracker. This could be due to a larger battery or
just different electronics. Though it has the same battery life as the SpyTec.
---- Appears to only work in the US and Canada, where the SpyTec tracker works worldwide (as
long as you call them and let them know you're traveling).
---- Not nearly as much info on the site. The SpyTec gives start/stop info for every GPS
update. This one just shows a solid line. Website is not as user-friendly.
---- No text updates, only emails. This just means when the vehicle goes over the speed limit
OR leaves a geofenced area, it will send an email instead of a text. I do miss getting texts
from my SpyTec GPS but I'm willing to sacrifice that for the lower monthly fee of this
one.
---- Limited notifications. This one only has geofencing and speed alerts where SpyTec has
Geofencing, speed, ignition on, ignition off, tow alert (I LOVE THIS ONE, I wish
PrimeTracking had this alert), function key and low battery alert.
---- Shows speed in mph but distance in km. Can't find a way to switch distance to miles. Not
a huge con but I wish I could change it.
---- Less tracking options than SpyTec.
NOTE: By default, the device is set to only update every 60 seconds. In order to switch it
to 10-second updates, you have to either contact support and have them do it for you or do it
yourself by following these instructions:
"To access the Upload interval setting; Visit PrimeTracking.Net > Click more under your
tracker to the left > Click Upload Interval > to set the 10 second interval enter 10
into each of the four boxes and click save > if the tracker is online and the settings is
saved, you will get a notification that says "Command saved" otherwise you will get one that
says "please make device online first"."
Overall though, I think this GPS tracker is ALMOST 5 stars. It's almost there. If they
added a few features to their site (like tow alerts, the ability to pick an update point to
see information [instead of having to click "play" and then "pause" at the point you want to
see] and text alerts), I'd say 5 stars all the way. It just needs some work on the
website/tracking side of things. If their site gets updated with a more user-friendly UI and
some additional options, I'll come back and give it 5 stars. Other than those things though,
this GPS unit really does work quite well. And at a great subscription price. Good for
tracking a stolen car, your kids or a significant other that you suspect of cheating.
BTW: You can see more info on their website: MyPrimeTracking.com and actually track your
device on their other site: PrimeTracking.net
Verified my (now ex) girlfriend was cheating. Sucks but it's better than never knowing the truth. The tracker was incredibly
easy to set up. Charge lasted longer than what other reviews stated (mine is still 55% after just over a week). The best feature
by far is the Geofence; I would get text alerts whenever my ex arrived or left the dude's apartment complex. I placed the tracker
under her vehicle using the
Spy Tec M2 Waterproof Weatherproof Magnetic Case for STI GL300 / GX350 Real-Time GPS Trackers which I also recommend.
Since the job is done, I submitted a form on their website to cancel the service. If they continue to charge my card (as other
reviews warned of) I'll be sure to change this review to a one-star.
UPDATE: They confirmed my cancellation request within 24 hours. Locating the cancellation form was as easy as typing "spytec
gps cancellation" in my search bar. I would 10/10 recommend this product to anyone suspecting of infidelity.
DickDastardly , Reviewed in the United States on August 30, 2017
Used this to track my ex-wife. Suspected her of cheating and sure enough caught her visiting her boytoy during the day when
I was at work. I'm divorced now and can laugh about it, but at the time watching the Spytech screen and seeing her every move
was traumatic, but I had to know
But don't you think you are being a wee bit devil-may-care with your hotdoggin'? Lol.
...
Russ is also a fantastic writer but whereas his post above and his prior during the
pandemic have focused on the brutality of the lockdown, I'm afraid he has missed the boat on
its net-positive effects, although he has rightly noted that being a bachelor during this
time is a far different experience than a family man (the same goes for apartment dwellers
vs. homeowners):
- As the breadwinner, I have never been home as much as I have with the fam. I'm exploring
fatherhood, long hair and a patchy and itchy beard, and enjoying myself more than anyone
should during the lockdown.
- I have seen more use at public parks, tennis courts, dog walking, family-outing than
ever before. They say that street foot-traffic is down but I beg to differ. Perhaps
consumerism and strip-mall venturing is way down, but f*** that vacuous endeavor I say
anyhow.
- People are cooking again. Fast food has more or less been relegated to treat-status
where it rightfully belongs
- More time at home allows the family to see the benefits of parenting at home and how NOT
to rely on public school raising your child in absentia. Our public school system desperately
needs a wake-up call. It needs to end the trend of politically-charged mission-statements and
remove itself back to second-fiddle status when it comes to raising our children.
- The fact that this being a great social experiment has been lost on those decrying the
lockdown. We are still unpacking the effects of it, but I will repeat that the gov't has
essentially blown its wad for all to see. Future generations will be able to judge this event
more accurately, but there are those now who are more politically active than they have ever
been and so will be more fully enraged during the NEXT encroachment on our liberties. And do
you think that the gov't will be able to repeat this lockdown in the near future with the
same acquiescence from the people? I think not. Indeed, a powder keg has been borne out of
this and it is propelling us out of our collective consumer-driven apathy. And the fact that
those decrying this event have failed to understand how disrupting the course of this
spirit-trough we have all been dwelling in the past decades could actually be a boon for
consciousness, I'm afraid says more about them and their need of the status-quo than anything
else. FFS, how long do you think the gov't can enforce such a policy? How long before it goes
to far and creates a reaction that reinvigorates the sleeping masses? My argument is that it
is getting closer every day and that their goal during this event will backfire spectacularly
on them in the near future.
- As the lockdown peters out, and liberty to frequent parks, forests, and the right to
disperse camp is restored, one wonders what the point of barring us from such activities for
just under three months was for other than piss people off? These activities would never
stand a snowballs chance to be removed permanently, so one can only wonder why? All it did
was further cast a spotlight on their idiocy and further reinforces my point above that, in
effect, they blew their wad.
- Small businesses have suffered. Money is printing so fast to go out of style in the near
future. Oh well, if your margins were that thin so as not to weather a couple months
hiatus/sabbatical, where the gov't has been alleviating the burden of such a time, then you
should probably rethink your business venture and decide whether it is 1) needful,
2)worthwhile, 3)non-superfluous. We need to eliminate the novel enterprises of a
late-capitalist society where hard work is shunned and luxury is all. Toughening up and
becoming lean-and-mean is not necessarily a bad idea, especially when it comes to the
powder-puff society that we find ourselves in.
Now with the coronavirus, we see a similar misplay between earnest elites and raucous
masses. When the severity of the crisis became apparent to all in early March -- some alarmist
statistical models
were predicting millions of deaths–it seemed obvious and necessary for federal and
state officials to follow the advice of the earnest elites and to order lockdowns; as for the
raucous masses, they were initially too bowled over by the apparent menace to raise much of a
protest. After all, nobody wanted to be outdoors during a zombie apocalypse.
Of course, in the absence of zombies, or of people dropping dead in the streets,
anti-lockdown protests soon erupted; in this country, somebody is always protesting something.
At first the protesters seemed to be little more than surviving Tea Partiers, flecked with
neo-Confederates -- a perception that the media was only too happy to reinforce -- and yet over
the past few weeks, it's become clear that the reopen movement is broader than just the anti,
the angry, and the Trumpy.
Indeed, as
this author noted last week, blue-state politicians, including incumbent Democrats, are now
in favor of reopening, albeit in a sometimes inconsistent and arbitrary fashion. In fact, some
recognized members of the earnest healthcare policy elite have gone so far as to write
in The New York Times , "As circumstances have evolved, so has my thinking" -- that is,
time to open up.
Yet in the meantime, populists -- aided by Republican researchers -- are tallying up
incidents of blue-state condescension and hypocrisy, as the woke and the wealthy have imposed
one set of rules on the proles, even as they themselves live by another set of rules.
For instance, there were the orders about
closing down churches, but not liquor stores . And there was the governor's wife who
ignored her husband's lockdown order and flew by private jet to her equestrian farm in
another state. And there was the state public health chief who
pulled her mother out of a nursing home even while ordering such homes to accept Covid-19
patients. (That official was the first transgender person to hold such a post, so she gets
extra points for wokeness, if not for fairness.)
Indeed, the comedian Ruth Buzzi -- best known for her appearances on the Laugh-In TV
show in the late 60s and early 70s -- tweeted about some of the
many weirdnesses of the current situation: "Marijuana is legal and haircuts are against the
law. It took half a century but Hippies finally won."
In the meantime, many people -- including Elon Musk ,
who defies ideological categorization, and including as well
African American partiers in Florida, not likely to be Republicans -- are simply ignoring
the remaining restrictions. The hard-pressed police, betwixt and between the rulers and the
ruled, can't arrest them all.
It's in this environment that The Washington Examiner
took note of a Gallup poll showing that a whopping 63 percent of Americans support
reopening, if new cases of the virus are declining. To be sure, that's a big "if," and yet for
the time being, it doesn't seem coincidental that Gallup also finds that the approval rating
of President Trump -- who has mostly supported reopening and who has always been contemptuous
of those earnest elites -- has edged into positive territory.
For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate
for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%.
Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35%
rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality
rate (IFR) to just 0.26% - almost exactly where
Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
We destroyed our entire country and
suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of
panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?
sybaris , 3 minutes ago remove link
I believe the CDC has lied from the start, and will continue to lie for one goal in mind,
making certain enough people fall ill to make any vaccine regiment they cook up mandatory
(because of the sudden realization of bad numbers) do not trust a word these people say, they
are proven liars. Sars 1 circa 2003 had a cfr of 15%, sars-cov-2 is a variant of the first
one, in a year the true cfr will actually be known, sure as hell won't be known now with this
limited data set, and that is why this seemingly good news is extremely deceptive......
FinkPloyd, 52 minutes ago
Caveats:
§ Estimates only include onset dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to
ensure cases have had sufficient time to observe the outcome (hospital admission or
death).
¶ Estimates only include hospital admission dates between March 1, 2020 – March
31, 2020 to ensure cases have had sufficient time to observe the outcome (hospital discharge
or death).
** Estimates only include death dates between March 1, 2020 – March 31, 2020 to
ensure sufficient time for reporting.
This Scenario represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease
severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as
more data become available.
Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
Flynt2142ahh, 1 hour ago (Edited)
Weak dumb decaden society ... where to start - Intellectually lazy media and public plus
weak analysis skills across board coupled with a culture that likes a quick fix and fast
takes - you get snow-pocalypses that turn into light dustings with school closures that you
and I know are total BS... and now you get fake pandemics. In a society that needs to ask if
you are glutten free or are you non binary... or for some strange reason these upright
walking sapiens need to "save" a billion year old planet from what I am not entirely sure of
- cuz the math of those models is crap too -whoops said the quiet part out loud.. (last i
checked it was not climate that blew up the world trade back on 9/11 ) ... losing faith in
humanity here... and those in the media carrying water for the chicoms & W.H.O need to
relocate to the China and enjoy their version of freedom and liberty..
TruthDetector, 1 hour ago (Edited)
“ We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these
people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic ( for this plannedemic ).
Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?”
I’ve got a dollar that says the only substantive thing we’ll ever hear from
the Fake Stream Media (FSM) is...
...🦗🎶🦗Crickets🦗🎶🦗...
Any one willing to wager $1 against my prediction?
Patmos, 1 hour ago remove link
So basically it should have been what’s been known since very early on:
Isolate the elderly and the infirm, maybe recommend masks as part of that protection plan
especially if you’re going to be around that vulnerable subset, so that if you got it
you don’t give it to them.
Instead we got:
Be very afraid, because the Bill Gates funded WHO said so, and oh yeah also take this
vaccine which helps pad Bill Gates’ coffers.
The article is extremely limited, but as far as it goes it is correct: short breathing is
extremely bad for the health, makes us uncomfortable, irritable, stressed, illogical, dulls
our thoughts and so many other handicaps. Deep long breathing (actually doesn't really matter
if it is fast or slow, the importance is that it is deep, using the full capacity of the
lungs) has all the benefits of exactly the opposite of short breathing - far better health,
we feel better, more relaxed, more concentrated, our minds are more powerful, more logical,
more energetic, we have more positive thougts, more helpful thoughts, more comfortable
thougts, and so many other benefits.
Short breathing is unnatural. 2000 years ago deep breathing would be the norm, short
breathing would be exceptional. Today in this world far divorced from nature the unhealthy
short breath has become the norm instead of the exception, making us irritable, stressed,
uncomfortable and unhealthy, and clouding our vision.
Actually 5 seconds per breath is still a pretty short breath; 20 seconds per in-breath and
20 seconds per out-breath gives much better results if you develop it.
v> Thus in this case the propaganda has been largely monolithic:
1. Stay indoors. Don't breathe the air.
2. If you must venture into the hostile outdoors*, wear a mask**. Especially now that the
air is the cleanest it's been our whole live s, do all you can to avoid breathing it.
"Covid-19 has forced modern medicine to broaden its outlook and look for new solutions,
even in the wisdom of the past."
Indeed, it's clear where the establishment's propaganda has found wisdom.
Thus in this case the propaganda has been largely monolithic:
1. Stay indoors. Don't breathe the air.
2. If you must venture into the hostile outdoors*, wear a mask**. Especially now that
the air is the cleanest it's been our whole live s, do all you can to avoid breathing
it.
"Covid-19 has forced modern medicine to broaden its outlook and look for new solutions,
even in the wisdom of the past."
Indeed, it's clear where the establishment's propaganda has found wisdom. /div
Thank you Russ @66. I always appreciate your comments.
I'm going to repost something I wrote this morning about how one can be a skeptic but not
be an asshole about it:
Did you know it is possible to be skeptical about the pandemic but not be an asshole about
it?
I'll use myself as an example.
I wear a mask when I'm in commercial spaces, even when it's not required. I understand and
respect how irrationally fearful people are, and I also understand how the mask has been
turned into a politically divisive symbol of freedom vs. tyranny. I'm not going to waste
energy on opposing mask-wearing when the real threat is a mandatory vaccine program cooked up
by sociopaths and administered by the military.
I don't bring my little germ-sponges–aka, children–into stores with me when
I'm shopping. My oldest, half-jokingly, said he wants to go into Target for his birthday as
his birthday gift. Not to buy anything, just to be in a store.
I'm not rushing into bars and restaurants and cram-packed swimming pools in the Ozarks now
that things are reopening. I stay at home, play with Legos, and drink box wine like a good
adult male with kids and no social life.
Since there is a reopening going on, and a subsequent media effort to highlight the most
obnoxious visual examples of violating our NEW NORMAL social distancing requirements, let me
offer a personal example of what reopening looks like for me.
Yesterday I hosted a social gathering. My friend came over with his two girls, and another
friend came over with his partner. The kids played and laughed over a fart gun. We ate
hotdogs and had a fire. It was great.
We talked about the risk of our gathering in our backyard to eat hotdogs and to let the
kids play. I think we understand the risk as best we can, considering how dubious much of the
information has been, and how flawed the models were.
Should I be ashamed of this gathering? Am I being an asshole by hanging out with a few
friends who have social lives that are about as exciting as mine?
I'm sure some will think yes, yes I am being an asshole. And that's fine. But until the
freedom to hang out with other people is completely removed, I'm going to take the risk of
doing what social herd animals need to do in order to maintain my mental health.
"... EU money intended for underfunded public-benefit research such as preparing for a pandemic has been diverted by the pharmaceutical industry into areas where it can make more money, according to a scathing new report. ..."
"... The target of the criticism is the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI), a public-private partnership that was equally funded, between 2008 and 2020, by the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) lobbying group and the European Commission to the tune of 5.3 billion euros (US$5.8 billion). The money is supposed to go to areas of "unmet medical or social need," ..."
"... "We were outraged to find evidence that the pharmaceutical industry lobby EFPIA not only did not consider funding biopreparedness (ie, being ready for epidemics such as the one caused by the new coronavirus, COVID-19) but opposed it being included in IMI's work when the possibility was raised by the European Commission in 2017, ..."
"... "The research proposed by the EC in the biopreparedness topic was small in scope," ..."
"... "IMI's projects have contributed, directly or indirectly, to better prepare the research community for the current crisis, the Ebola+ programme or the ZAPI project." ..."
"... "belated interventions when an epidemic is already underway," ..."
"... Think your friends would be interested? Share this story! ..."
EU money intended
for underfunded public-benefit research such as preparing for a pandemic has been diverted by
the pharmaceutical industry into areas where it can make more money, according to a scathing
new report. Officials in Brussels wanted to co-fund research that would have ensured the
European Union (EU) was better prepared for a pandemic akin to the one we are experiencing
today. But their partners, the big pharmaceutical companies, rejected the proposal, ensuring
that taxpayer money would go instead into studies with more potential for commercial
application. In short big-pharma lobbyists were allowed to steer billions of euros of public
funds as they saw fit, a damning new report claims.
The target of the criticism is the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI), a
public-private partnership that was equally funded, between 2008 and 2020, by the European
Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) lobbying group and the
European Commission to the tune of 5.3 billion euros (US$5.8 billion). The money is supposed to
go to areas of "unmet medical or social need," but, in practice, corporate priorities
dominate the decision-making, according to the
non-governmental organization Corporate Observatory Europe (COE).
"We were outraged to find evidence that the pharmaceutical industry lobby EFPIA not only
did not consider funding biopreparedness (ie, being ready for epidemics such as the one caused
by the new coronavirus, COVID-19) but opposed it being included in IMI's work when the
possibility was raised by the European Commission in 2017, " a new COE report
said.
The rejected proposal would have directed money into refining computer simulations and the
analysis of animal testing models, potentially speeding up regulatory approval of vaccines,
according to the Guardian. But a spokeswoman for the IMI called the report
"misleading".
"The research proposed by the EC in the biopreparedness topic was small in scope,"
she said. "IMI's projects have contributed, directly or indirectly, to better prepare the
research community for the current crisis, the Ebola+ programme or the ZAPI project."
ZAPI, or the Zoonotic Anticipation and Preparedness Initiative, was launched in 2015 with a
budget of 20 million euros (US$21.8 million) after the Ebola epidemic a year prior. The COE
report said it exemplifies a pattern of "belated interventions when an epidemic is already
underway," much like this year's emergency funding of coronavirus research.
The think tank questioned whether EU public money was well applied through IMI. Much of it
went into research into cancer, Alzheimer's disease and diabetes – areas that are
potentially profitable and thus are given close attention by private business. But epidemic
preparedness, HIV/AIDS, and poverty-related and neglected tropical diseases have been
overlooked by the initiative, the report said.
Think your friends would be interested? Share this story!
"It all points to social economic status and poverty," Gray Molina said.
This is probably true. It was one argument against shutting down economies so drastically.
This is less of a problem in the wealthier countries for the moment, but in a second or third
wave, you will probably see more deaths among the below 60s due to increasing poverty caused
by poorly managed lockdowns this time around.
"... "According to CDC, the disease of obesity affects about 78 million Americans 1 and the ASMBS estimates about 24 million have severe or morbid obesity." ..."
And the government botching of this crisis continues...
'How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?' The government's disease-fighting agency is
conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend
on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the
same. https://tinyurl.com/y92ea59f
Nearly half of US states haven't contained their coronavirus outbreaks, a new study
finds https://tinyurl.com/yc72pd8t
And no, Sweden is not doing better...
Just 7.3% of Stockholm had Covid-19 antibodies by end of April, study shows
Official findings add to concerns about Sweden's laissez-faire strategy towards the
pandemic https://tinyurl.com/yahnmb3a
Finally, a large scale study on HCQ - 86,000 patients, with 15,000 receiving HCQ...
Blacks are *twice* as likely to get it as whites and Latinos. American Indians are *five
times* more likely to get it. They conclude the best indicator is poverty.
From The Lancet, a study of New York patients... Epidemiology, clinical course, and
outcomes of critically ill adults with COVID-19 in New York City: a prospective cohort study
https://tinyurl.com/yblmszsx
Between March 2 and April 1, 2020, 1150 adults were admitted to both hospitals with
laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, of which 257 (22%) were critically ill.
The median age of patients was 62 years (IQR 51–72), 171 (67%) were men. 212 (82%)
patients had at least one chronic illness, the most common of which were hypertension (162
[63%]) and diabetes (92 [36%]).
119 (46%) patients had obesity.
As of April 28, 2020, 101 (39%) patients had died and 94 (37%) remained
hospitalised.
203 (79%) patients received invasive mechanical ventilation for a median of 18 days (IQR
9–28), 170 (66%) of 257 patients received vasopressors and 79 (31%) received renal
replacement therapy.
The median time to in-hospital deterioration was 3 days (IQR 1–6).
In the multivariable Cox model, older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1·31
[1·09–1·57] per 10-year increase), chronic cardiac disease (aHR
1·76 [1·08–2·86]), chronic pulmonary disease (aHR 2·94
[1·48–5·84]), higher concentrations of interleukin-6 (aHR 1·11
[95%CI 1·02–1·20] per decile increase), and higher concentrations of
D-dimer (aHR 1·10 [1·01–1·19] per decile increase) were
independently associated with in-hospital mortality.
Note: 36% had diabetes; 46% were fat. Like I've said before, "diabetes" is a code word for
"fat." And how many people in the US are fat and thus at risk? "According to CDC, the
disease of obesity affects about 78 million Americans 1 and the ASMBS estimates about 24
million have severe or morbid obesity."
So much for "let's just isolate the elderly"...so we can attend our baseball games this
summer and stuff ourselves with crap food...
So not only ambulance service was destroyed by private equity, they now added other specialties. I wonder is those criminals who
insert unnecessary stents in patients are connected to private equity.
Images removed
Notable quotes:
"... "You can't serve two masters. You can't serve patients and investors" ..."
"... Morganroth's defense of pandemic Botox might seem odd, but it made perfect sense within the logic of the U.S. health-care system, which has seen Wall Street investors invade its every corner, engineering medical practices and hospitals to maximize profits as if they were little different from grocery stores. At the center of this story are private equity firms, which saw the explosive growth of health-care spending and have been buying up physician staffing companies, surgery centers, and everything else in sight. ..."
"... But some doctors say that the private equity playbook, which involves buying companies, drastically cutting costs, and then selling for a profit -- the goal is generally to make an annualized return of 20% to 30% within three to five years -- creates problems that are unique to health care. "I know private equity does this in other industries, but in medicine you're dealing with people's health and their lives," says Michael Rains, a doctor who worked at U.S. Dermatology Partners , a big private equity-backed chain. "You can't serve two masters. You can't serve patients and investors." ..."
"... Yet over the past decade, lawyers devised a structure that allows investors to buy a medical practice without technically owning it: the MSO, or management service organization. Today, when an investment firm buys a doctor's office, what it's actually buying are the office's "nonclinical" assets. In theory, physicians control all medical decisions and agree to pay a management fee to a newly created company, which handles administrative tasks such as billing and marketing. ..."
"... Businessweek ..."
"... When individual doctors sell, they generally receive $2 million to $7 million each, with 30% to 40% of that paid in equity in the group. After the acquisition, doctors get a lower salary and are asked to help recruit other doctors to sell their practices or to join as employees. ..."
"... Patients, for the most part, are in the dark. Unlike when your mortgage changes hands, you usually aren't notified when a big investment firm buys your doctor. Sometimes the sign on the door bearing the physician's name stays put, and subtle changes in operations or unfamiliar fees may be the only clues that anything has happened. ..."
"... At Advanced Dermatology & Cosmetic Surgery , the largest private equity-backed group in the field, with more than 150 locations across the U.S., that sense of discomfort came shortly after Audax Group bought a controlling stake in what was then a much smaller chain in 2011. The new management team introduced a scorecard that rewarded offices with cash if they met daily and monthly financial goals, according to a lawsuit filed in 2013 against the company by one of its dermatologists. The doctor alleged that the bonus program encouraged staff to do as many procedures as possible, rather than strictly addressing patients' medical needs. ..."
"... Most dermatologists use outside labs and pathologists, but private equity-owned groups buy up existing labs and hire their own pathologists. Then doctors are encouraged to refer patients within the group and send biopsy slides to the company-owned labs, keeping the entire chain of revenue in-house. ..."
"... Now comes the cost-cutting. This is supposed to be the hallmark of private equity, and, done right, it can work to the benefit of doctors and patients. But there are pitfalls unique to medicine, where aggressive cuts can lead to problems, some of them merely inconvenient and some potentially dangerous. ..."
"... A doctor at Advanced Dermatology says that waiting for corporate approvals means his office is routinely left without enough gauze, antiseptic solution, and toilet paper. Even before the great toilet paper shortage of 2020, he would travel with a few rolls in the trunk of his car, to spare patients when an office inevitably ran out. The company declined to comment. ..."
"... One paradox of the Covid-19 pandemic has been that even as the virus has focused the entire country on health care, it's been a financial disaster for the industry. And so, while emergency room doctors and nurses care for the sick -- comforting those who would otherwise die alone, and in some cases dying themselves -- private equity-backed staffing companies and hospitals have been cutting pay for ER doctors. These hospitals, like the big medical practices, make a large portion of their money from elective procedures and have been forced into wrenching compromises. ..."
"... For investors with capital, on the other hand, the economic fallout from the virus is a huge opportunity. Stay-at-home orders have left small practices more financially strained than they've ever been. That will likely accelerate sales to private equity firms, according to Marc Cabrera, an investment banker focused on health-care deals at Oppenheimer & Co. Independent doctors or groups that previously rebuffed offers from deep-pocketed backers "will reconsider their options," he says. ..."
"... Many doctors may ultimately come to regret cashing out, but it's hard to get out once you're in. As part of an acquisition, the private equity groups typically require doctors to sign yearslong contracts, with noncompete clauses that prevent them from working in the surrounding area. ..."
Not long after Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, ordered the state's 40 million residents to stay home to stop the spread
of the new coronavirus, Dr. Greg Morganroth called his team of doctors and said their dermatology group was staying open.
Morganroth is chief executive officer of the California Skin Institute
, which he founded in 2007 as a single office in Mountain View. He's since expanded to more than 40 locations using a financing
strategy that's become exceedingly common in American health care: private equity. In this case, he took out a loan from
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. that could eventually convert to an
equity stake. CSI is now the largest dermatology chain in California.
But the Covid-19 pandemic
put Morganroth in a precarious position. Most medical procedures were characterized as
nonessential by government officials and practitioners. Doctors were closing offices, and patients were staying away to limit
their potential exposure to the virus.
CSI took a different approach. Morganroth explained his thinking on April 2 in a Zoom call with more than 170 dermatologists from
around the country organized by the Cosmetic Surgery Forum, an industry conference. Contrary to what they might have heard, Morganroth
told them, they should consider staying open during the pandemic. "Many of us are over-interpreting guidelines," he said.
For a moment there was an awkward silence. Doctors had thought they were signing up for advice on how to apply for
government money that would help them meet payroll while they were shut down; they hadn't expected to be told not to shut down
at all. Morganroth continued: "We are going to be in a two-year war, and we need to make strategic plans for our businesses that
enable us to survive and to rebound."
Back at CSI, the company's front-office staff was working the phones, calling patients in some of the worst-hit areas and reminding
them to show up for their appointments, even for cosmetic procedures such as Botox injections to treat wrinkles. During the videoconference,
Morganroth argued that offering Botox in a pandemic wasn't so different from a grocery store allowing customers to buy candy alongside
staples.
"If I had a food supply company and had to stay open, and I had meat, bread, and milk, would I stop making lime and strawberry
licorice?" Morganroth asked. "I would make everything and go forward."
From a public-health point of view, some of the doctors believed, this was questionable. Common reasons for visiting a dermatologist's
office -- skin screenings, mole removals, acne consultations -- aren't particularly time sensitive. Serious matters, such as suspected
cancers and dangerous rashes, can be handled, at least initially, with
telemedicine consultations . Then doctors can weigh the risks for their patients and determine who needs to come in. In a statement,
CSI says that it followed local and state laws for staying open, while providing "necessary care" for patients, and that it had not
required doctors to come to work.
"You can't serve two masters. You can't serve patients and investors"
Morganroth's defense of pandemic Botox might seem odd, but it made perfect sense within the logic of the U.S. health-care system,
which has seen Wall Street investors invade its every corner, engineering medical practices and hospitals to maximize profits as
if they were little different from grocery stores. At the center of this story are private equity firms, which saw the explosive
growth of health-care spending and have been buying up physician staffing companies, surgery centers, and everything else in sight.
Over the past five years, the firms have invested more than $10 billion in medical practices, with a special focus on dermatology,
which is seen as a hot industry because of the aging population. Baby boomers suffer from high rates of two potentially lucrative
conditions: skin cancer and vanity. Some estimates suggest that private equity already owns more than 10% of the U.S dermatology
market. And firms have started to expand into other specialties, including women's health, urology, and gastroenterology.
There's nothing inherently wrong with any of this. But some doctors say that the private equity playbook, which involves
buying companies, drastically cutting costs, and then selling for a profit -- the goal is generally to make an annualized return
of 20% to 30% within three to five years -- creates problems that are unique to health care. "I know private equity does this in
other industries, but in medicine you're dealing with people's health and their lives," says Michael Rains, a doctor who worked
at
U.S. Dermatology Partners , a big private equity-backed
chain. "You can't serve two masters. You can't serve patients and investors."
Investment firms, and the practices they fund, say these concerns are overblown. They point out that they're giving doctors a
financial shelter from the rapidly changing medical environment, a particularly attractive prospect now, and that money from private
equity firms has expanded care to more patients. But they've also made it next to impossible to track the industry's impact or reach.
Firms rarely announce their investments and routinely subject doctors to nondisclosure agreements that make it difficult for them
to speak publicly. Bloomberg Businessweek spoke to dozens of doctors at 10 large private equity-backed dermatology groups.
Those interviews, along with information obtained from other employees, investors, lawyers, court filings, and company records, reveal
how the firms operate, and why they sometimes fail patients.
The process is never exactly the same, but there are familiar patterns, which tend to play out in five steps.
Step 1: Marriage
The strange thing about private equity money in medicine is that for-profit investors have long been prevented from buying doctor's
offices. Corporate ownership goes against a doctrine set by the American Medical
Association , the main trade group for doctors in the U.S., and is prohibited by law in many states, including Texas and New
Jersey. For most of the past 100 years, if you wanted to make money on a medical practice, you needed to have a medical license.
Yet over the past decade, lawyers devised a structure that allows investors to buy a medical practice without technically owning
it: the MSO, or management service organization. Today, when an investment firm buys a doctor's office, what it's actually buying
are the office's "nonclinical" assets. In theory, physicians control all medical decisions and agree to pay a management fee to a
newly created company, which handles administrative tasks such as billing and marketing.
In practice, though, investors expect some influence over medical decision-making, which, after all, is connected to profits.
"When we partner with you, it's a marriage," said Matt Jameson, a managing director at BlueMountain Capital, a $17 billion firm that
recently invested in a women's health company, while speaking at a conference in New York in September. "We have to believe it. You
have to believe it. It's not going to be something where clinical is completely not touched." (When contacted by Businessweek
, Jameson asked to clarify his comments. "Doctors and other qualified healthcare professionals at the providers we've invested
in make medical decisions," he said in a statement.)
The typical buyout starts with the acquisition of a big, popular practice, often with multiple doctors and several locations,
for as much as $100 million. (Investors typically pay between 9 and 12 times annual profit.) This practice functions as an anchor,
like a name-brand department store at a shopping mall, attracting patients and doctors to the new group as it expands. Then comes
the roll-up: The private equity firm purchases smaller offices and solo practices, giving the group a regional presence.
As part of the new structure, investors deal with paperwork and save money by buying medical supplies in bulk. Crucially they
also negotiate higher insurance reimbursement rates. One dermatologist who sold her practice to the California Skin Institute says
she was surprised to find out the bigger group's payouts from insurers were $25 to $125 more per visit.
When individual doctors sell, they generally receive $2 million to $7 million each, with 30% to 40% of that paid in equity in
the group. After the acquisition, doctors get a lower salary and are asked to help recruit other doctors to sell their practices
or to join as employees.
At first, doctors are generally thrilled by all of this. They have financial security and can focus on treating patients without
the stress of running a business. Patients, for the most part, are in the dark. Unlike when your mortgage changes hands, you usually
aren't notified when a big investment firm buys your doctor. Sometimes the sign on the door bearing the physician's name stays put,
and subtle changes in operations or unfamiliar fees may be the only clues that anything has happened.
Step 2: Growth
The promise of more patients is a big draw for doctors. By sharing marketing costs and adding locations, the new companies can
advertise more and attract customers. Private equity-owned practices have been diligent users of social media, announcing newly added
doctors and posting coupons on Twitter and Instagram. But these practices can be aggressive in ways that make some doctors uncomfortable.
At Advanced Dermatology & Cosmetic Surgery , the largest
private equity-backed group in the field, with more than 150 locations across the U.S., that sense of discomfort came shortly after
Audax Group bought a controlling stake in what was then a
much smaller chain in 2011. The new management team introduced a scorecard that rewarded offices with cash if they met daily and
monthly financial goals, according to a lawsuit filed in 2013 against the company by one of its dermatologists. The doctor alleged
that the bonus program encouraged staff to do as many procedures as possible, rather than strictly addressing patients' medical needs.
In some of the company's Florida offices, the doctor alleged, medical assistants responded to the bonus structure by ticking extra
boxes on exam reports, stating that doctors checked many more areas of the body than they actually had. That led to higher patient
bills, defrauding the government under its Medicare program, according to the lawsuit. The federal government declined to join the
case, and it was dismissed about a year after it was filed. Advanced and Audax declined to comment.
One-Stop Skin Care
By buying up labs and adding specialists, private equity-owned dermatology groups get paid at every step of a patient's treatment.
Data: Estimated Medicare reimbursement rates for the Miami area, Sensus Healthcare sales presentation
Private equity-backed practices also try to increase revenue by adding more-lucrative procedures, according to doctors interviewed
by Businessweek . In dermatology, this means more cosmetics, laser treatments, radiation, and especially Mohs surgeries
-- a specialized skin cancer procedure that removes growths from delicate areas like the face and neck one layer at a time, to limit
scarring. The surgery involves expensive equipment and specialized doctors, so some large medical groups keep costs down by assembling
traveling Mohs teams, who fly in from other states. Others create mobile labs in vans that set up in clinics' parking lots.
Most dermatologists use outside labs and pathologists, but private equity-owned groups buy up existing labs and hire their own
pathologists. Then doctors are encouraged to refer patients within the group and send biopsy slides to the company-owned labs, keeping
the entire chain of revenue in-house. This takes advantage of a regulatory quirk that has made dermatology, and a handful of other
specialties, attractive to private equity. Under the 1989 Stark Law, doctors aren't allowed to make patient referrals for their own
financial gain. An exception was made for some fields because it's more convenient for patients, explains Dr. Sailesh Konda, a Mohs
surgeon and professor at the University of Florida. "But that can be abused."
Step 3: Synergy
Now comes the cost-cutting. This is supposed to be the hallmark of private equity, and, done right, it can work to the benefit
of doctors and patients. But there are pitfalls unique to medicine, where aggressive cuts can lead to problems, some of them merely
inconvenient and some potentially dangerous.
A doctor at Advanced Dermatology says that waiting for corporate approvals means his office is routinely left without enough gauze,
antiseptic solution, and toilet paper. Even before the great
toilet paper shortage of 2020, he would travel with a few rolls in the trunk of his car, to spare patients when an office inevitably
ran out. The company declined to comment.
At the country's second-biggest skin-care group, U.S. Dermatology
Partners , a former doctor says a regional manager switched to a cheaper brand of needles and sutures without consulting the
medical staff. The quality was so poor, she says, they would often break off in her patients' bodies. Mortified, she'd have to dig
them out and start over. She complained to managers but couldn't get better supplies, she says. Paul Singh, U.S. Dermatology's CEO,
says the company uses a "reputable, global vendor for medical supplies." "While our group may have standardized purchasing processes,
individual providers have the autonomy to procure specific supplies that they need for a particular patient situation or patient
population," he says in a statement.
Doctors who join a private equity-backed group generally sign contracts that state they'll never have to compromise their medical
judgment, but some say that management began to intervene there, too. Dermatologists at most of the companies say they were pushed
to see as many as twice the number of patients a day, which made them feel rushed and unable to provide the same quality of care.
Others were forced to discuss their cases with managers or medical directors, who asked the doctors to explain why they weren't sending
more patients for surgery. Multiple practices also encouraged doctors to send home Mohs surgery patients with open wounds and have
them come back the next day for stitches -- or to have a different doctor do the closure the same day -- because that would allow
the practice to collect more from insurers.
That's if doctors are performing the procedures at all. At Advanced Dermatology, several doctors say they were asked to claim
that physician assistants, or PAs, were under their supervision when they weren't seeing patients in the same building, or even the
same town. Because PAs are paid less than dermatologists, this allowed the company to keep costs low while growing the business.
In a statement, Eric Hunt, Advanced's general counsel and chief compliance officer says that having PAs on staff enables the company
to "provide access to quality dermatological care to more patients."
Step 4. Rolling Up the Roll-Up
Advanced Dermatology was sold in 2016 by Audax to Harvest
Partners LP , following a pattern that's typical in the industry. At some point, after costs have been cut and profits maximized,
most private equity-owned medical groups will be sold, often to another private equity firm, which will then try to somehow make
the company even more profitable.
Having reduced most of the obvious costs, Advanced Dermatology began skimping on more important supplies, including Hylenex, according
to doctors and other employees. The drug is an expensive reversal agent used when cosmetic fillers, which are supposed to make skin
look plumper, go wrong. Not having enough is dangerous: Patients who get an injection that inadvertently blocks a blood vessel can
be left with dead sections of skin or even go blind if they don't get enough Hylenex in a matter of hours. The company says that
it stocks Hylenex in every office that performs cosmetic procedures, and that it "has no records of any provider being denied an
order for this medication."
Advanced Dermatology also started giving even more authority to PAs, according to doctors and staff. Without enough oversight
some were missing deadly skin cancers, they say. Others were doing too many biopsies and cutting out much larger areas of skin than
necessary, leaving patients with big scars. Doctors who complained about the bad behavior say they saw PAs moved to other locations
rather than fired or given more supervision. Hunt, the company's lawyer, says that all PAs get six months of training and are supervised
by experienced doctors.
The staff coined a new medical diagnosis, "pre- pre- pre-cancer"
Advanced Dermatology also put more pressure on doctors to send biopsies to in-house labs. The move made sense financially, but
some of the doctors didn't trust the lab. One of its two pathologists in Delray Beach, Fla., Steven Glanz, had a history of misdiagnosing
benign tumors, which led patients to undergo surgeries that were later found to be unnecessary, according to doctors who worked with
him. Dermatologists who warned that Glanz was a danger to patients say that their complaints to Dr. Matt Leavitt, the group's founder
and CEO, were ignored. More procedures, doctors knew, brought in more money.
Glanz, who had been with the practice since its early days, was known to read slides under a microscope with a pistol on his desk.
After he was arrested with a handgun, a folding knife, and a vial of methamphetamine crystals, he was fired and Florida's state medical
board fined him $10,000, requiring him to complete a five-hour course on ethics before he could resume practicing. But his former
colleagues were unsettled; they knew Glanz's signature was on years of reports that determined treatment for patients. Some slides
were reevaluated, and pathologists noticed mistakes. Managers told some doctors and their staff that patients, even those who'd been
misdiagnosed and had unnecessary procedures, were not to be told. Glanz pleaded guilty to stalking and a firearms violation and was
sentenced to probation. When a reporter called his office and identified herself, the receptionist hung up. Further attempts to reach
Glanz were unsuccessful. Advanced's Hunt says that he was "formally released from employment three years ago," but did not comment
further.
Of course, some doctors pushed ethical boundaries long before private equity came into the picture. But critics of the industry,
including doctors and investors, say management teams put in place by private equity firms tend to look the other way as long as
a medical practice is profitable. Of the dermatologists with the highest biopsy rates in the country (between 4 and 11 per patient,
per year), almost 25% were affiliated with private equity-backed groups, according to Dr. Joseph Francis, a Mohs surgeon and data
researcher at the University of Florida.
Medical providers may have also been blurring ethical lines at U.S. Dermatology Partners, which was until recently on its second
private equity owner, Abry Partners LLC . At four of the
company's offices in Texas, a doctor and his PAs were doing more biopsies than necessary, according to employees. These employees
say the staff routinely called patients with benign lichenoid keratosis, small brownish blotches that usually go away on their own,
and told them the growths should be removed. Under instruction from the doctor, the staff coined a new medical diagnosis, "pre- pre-
pre-cancer," and then talked patients into coming in for removal, employees say. Singh, the U.S. Dermatology CEO, says that the company
trusts doctors to make the right decisions and that it monitors them through routine audits.
Step 5: Sell-Off
In some cases the cost-cutting either becomes impossible or leads to compromises in care too obvious to ignore. In 2016 a
DermOne LLC office in Irving, Texas, had been using a faulty
autoclave machine to sterilize surgical equipment -- the state and county health departments identified 137 patients that needed
to get tested for blood-borne diseases such as HIV and hepatitis. By 2018, DermOne's backer, Westwind Investors, wanted out.
Westwind had been one of the earliest firms to build a big dermatology business -- with practices in five states -- but others
had grown larger. After the debacle in Irving, the Nevada-based firm sold DermOne's medical records and patient lists, as well as
some of its offices, to other groups. It dissolved the remaining offices, leaving some patients abruptly without care. Westwind did
not respond to repeated requests for comment. Two other private equity-backed groups, TruDerm and Select Dermatology LLC, have also
gone out of business in the past two years.
The surviving chains have been saddled with large piles of debt they're now struggling to repay. In January, U.S. Dermatology
Partners defaulted on a $377 million loan, meaning the private equity backer, Abry Partners, had to hand over the keys to its lenders,
Golub Capital ,
Carlyle Group , and
Ares Management , which will now oversee a chain with almost
100 locations, receiving 1 million visits from patients a year. Abry did not respond to requests for comment .
For the medical groups that make it, the game plan is to eventually sell to the largest players, such as
KKR ,
Blackstone Group , and
Apollo Global Management . Pioneering investors, including Audax,
are now buying practices in other fields -- a concerning development to critics who note that the areas that are currently attracting
investment, such as urology, generally involve more invasive procedures. Should doctors performing vasectomies be thinking about
the dollar-rate returns for KKR -- or any private investor?
"It's ultimately going to backfire," says Dr. Jane Grant-Kels, a veteran dermatologist and professor at the University of Connecticut
School of Medicine. "There's a limit to how much money you can make when you're sticking knives into human skin for profit."
One paradox of the Covid-19 pandemic has been that even as the virus has focused the entire country on health care, it's been
a financial disaster for the industry. And so, while emergency room doctors and nurses care for the sick -- comforting those who
would otherwise die alone, and in some cases
dying themselves
-- private equity-backed staffing companies and hospitals have been
cutting pay for ER doctors. These hospitals, like the big medical practices, make a large portion of their money from elective
procedures and have been forced into wrenching compromises.
For investors with capital, on the other hand, the economic fallout from the virus is a huge opportunity. Stay-at-home orders
have left small practices more financially strained than they've ever been. That will likely accelerate sales to private equity firms,
according to Marc Cabrera, an investment banker focused on health-care deals at Oppenheimer & Co. Independent doctors or groups that
previously rebuffed offers from deep-pocketed backers "will reconsider their options," he says.
Many doctors may ultimately come to regret cashing out, but it's hard to get out once you're in. As part of an acquisition, the
private equity groups typically require doctors to sign yearslong contracts, with noncompete clauses that prevent them from working
in the surrounding area.
As governors throughout the nation ease restrictions on businesses, Advanced Dermatology is opening its most profitable offices
first. The company received an undisclosed sum under the Cares Act, as part of the government relief package intended for health-care
workers. Hunt, Advanced's chief compliance officer, told employees in an email earlier this month that the money would be used for
protective gear, such as masks, and to replace "millions of dollars" in lost revenue.
The group had closed most of its offices since the stay-at-home orders were issued in March, cutting pay for doctors and furloughing
staff. With cities and states beginning to consider reopening, doctors and PAs say they've been told they should be prepared for
a full schedule. Hunt says the company is following the appropriate safety measures, but employees fear it will be nearly impossible
to keep patients apart in waiting rooms. Opening in a reduced capacity, they understand, is not an option.
I think lung volume is indirect indicator of how well trained the person is. Coach
potatoes have low lung volume. Most sportsmen -- a high or even very high.
In the 1980s, researchers with the Framingham Study, a 70-year research program
focused on heart disease, gathered two decades of data from 5,200 subjects, crunched the
numbers and discovered that the greatest indicator of life span wasn't genetics, diet or
the amount of daily exercise, as many had suspected. It was lung capacity. Larger lungs
equaled longer lives. Because big lungs allow us to get more air in with fewer breaths.
They save the body from a lot of unnecessary wear and tear.
Also a sedentary way of life with not enough movement during the day, especially during
childhood and adolescence, along with poor sitting and standing postures can encourage
shallow breathing instead of breathing with the whole body.
New UnHerd interview up , this time
with Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology at Oxford. From their summary:
It's the biggest question in the world right now: is Covid-19 a deadly disease that only
a small fraction of our populations have so far been exposed to? Or is it a much milder
pandemic that a large percentage of people have already encountered and is already on its
way out?
If Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College is the figurehead for the first opinion,
then Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford, is
the representative of the second. Her group at Oxford produced a rival model to Ferguson's
back in March which speculated that as much as 50% of the population may already have been
infected and the true Infection Fatality Rate may be as low as 0.1%.
Since then, we have seen various antibody studies around the world indicating a
disappointingly small percentage of seroprevalence -- the percentage of the population has
the anti-Covid-19 antibody. It was starting to seem like Ferguson's view was the one closer
to the truth.
But, in her first major interview since the Oxford study was published in March,
Professor Gupta is only more convinced that her original opinion was correct.
As she sees it, the antibody studies, although useful, do not indicate the true level
of exposure or level of immunity. First, many of the antibody tests are "extremely
unreliable" and rely on hard-to-achieve representative groups. But more important, many
people who have been exposed to the virus will have other kinds of immunity that don't show
up on antibody tests -- either for genetic reasons or the result of pre-existing immunities
to related coronaviruses such as the common cold.
The implications of this are profound – it means that when we hear results from
antibody tests (such as a forthcoming official UK Government study) the percentage who test
positive for antibodies is not necessarily equal to the percentage who have immunity or
resistance to the virus. The true number could be much higher.
Observing the very similar patterns of the epidemic across countries around the world
has convinced Professor Gupta that it is this hidden immunity, more than lockdowns or
government interventions, that offers the best explanation of the Covid-19
progression:
"In almost every context we've seen the epidemic grow, turn around and die away --
almost like clockwork. Different countries have had different lockdown policies, and yet
what we've observed is almost a uniform pattern of behaviour which is highly consistent
with the SIR model. To me that suggests that much of the driving force here was due to the
build-up of immunity. I think that's a more parsimonious explanation than one which
requires in every country for lockdown (or various degrees of lockdown, including no
lockdown) to have had the same effect."
Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta
says, "I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so
I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000."
That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%.
If she is right, antibody tests are a poor measure of the true virus spread, and the
declining death rate Sweden and many other countries have seen this past month is from
immunity -- not measures -- lowering the effective reproduction number. Time will tell.
To summarise: corona infects less than 5-10% of people, more under ideal virus circumstances
in cold, dumpy ski resorts or in NY-London tenements. Among infected it kills about 1%,
almost all over 65, with those over 80 having a 10-20% chance of dying.
And they shut down the world, because ' corona '. This is a policy of 'do anything
to protect the old' even if it means enslaving the young, a gerontocracy that would be
unthinkable in the past.
It is dawning on even the most fanatical corona fans that the data won't change. Now we
hear about a 'second wave' – why only one more? Or that the restrictions stopped a
disaster – one of those 'what if' historical speculations. But the best one lately is
that ' we didn't know anything, nobody knew '.
Right, who knew? One can justify anything by embracing ignorance: "I know nothing, but
you must do what I say." This is one is better than WMDs, lier loans, or Putin personally
flipping votes in Michigan in 2016 West is really growing intellectually. I can't wait for
the next one
To summarise: corona infects less than 5-10% of people, more under ideal virus
circumstances in cold, dumpy ski resorts or in NY-London tenements
That is in 2-3 months since initial infections and it was enough to completely overwhelm
organized healthcare in some places and strain very hard in most places, then all those
loathed protective measures kick in and the spread slows because of it. If there were no such
any measures taken anywhere in the world growth would become explosively exponential very
soon and those 5% would increase tenfold.
A couple of thoughts (and apologize if they may be in some of the links you
mentioned):
While it's good to know what the "average" IFR is, IMO it's as important from a policy
point of view to know what the conditions in which it varies and how much (based on current
treatment options) it can vary by. Speaking purely statistically, a mean of 1% with a 95% CI
of 0.9-1.1% is significantly different from one of 1% with a 95% CI of 0.01% to 2%.
Here are some factors that we already know significantly impact
hospitalizations/mortality:
Inherent Factors:
– Age (easily the biggest known variable for impacting IFR, likely correlated with
immune system response)
– Gender (men more susceptible than women (around 30% more?)
– Co-morbidity (correlates with pre-existing damage to tissues throughout the body and
sensitivity of receptors/immune response)
– Prior coronavirus history (??? One paper claims that recent infection with
coronavirus that causes the common cold may offer cross-reactive antibodies to SARS-Cov-2
https://www.lji.org/news-events/news/post/first-detailed-analysis-of-immune-response-to-sars-cov-2-bodes-well-for-covid-19-vaccine-development/
)
– Blood groups (??? Contradictory/not fully vetted data claiming for example those with
ABO antigen type A more susceptible to infection progressing than type O, B, AB)
External Factors
– Early detection and treatment before severe symptoms
– Medical care availability
– Tailored treatment cocktails (evolving but reports that each country/region gaining
experience on identifying optimal treatment regimens depending on patient)
– Optimal use of ventilators (reports that though low blood oxygen is first presented,
automatic intubating may often make things worse)
– Lethality/Infectiousness of different strains (?? Non-peer reviewed studies claim for
example at least three major strains that differ in infectiousness/severity which are found
dominant in different regions.
There may be more (eg BCG vaccine (a theory I don't buy for reasons too long to go into
here); past use of nicotine etc; ethnic genotypes etc).
But the point is, based on even current, rapidly evolving knowledge, IFR varies widely
based on known/speculative factors, which should inform response policy from severity/types
of lockdowns/social restrictions to medical responses in addition to efforts to prevent
infection in the first place.
@AP The interesting
& important thing to note is that fatalities are heavily tied to the related factors of
pre-existing conditions and advanced age. For example:
With CQ/AZ/ZN available everywhere, the bulk of the economy could reopen immediately with
or without masks. Given that psychology is important, odds are mask wearing will make
the restart more effective. However, masks provide partial protection at most.
Let us talk about this again, basically, how much of international travel is really
necessary, the cheap labor travel? White pedos vacationing in Thailand? A lot of mass tourism
just leads to places like Queenstown, Kyoto, and Venice being trashed, driving the locals
out, and losing their local culture, and 95 percent of business travel are really junkets
that can be replaced by videoconferencing.
@james wilson Given
that the current crap state of Western culture is that responsibility of SJW millennials and
zoomer maybe it is they that should be sacrificed? How much will the world lose anyway? The
world was much better off before they came here. They are the ones who are responsible for
things going off the deep end the past decade or so. Look at how much better Star Trek the
next generation was compared to the crap now by JJ Abrams.
I liked very much the paper by the Berkeley physicists: Modi, Chirag, Vanessa Boehm, Simone
Ferraro, George Stein, and Uros Seljak. Epidemiologists and all kinds of statisticians could
learn from them how to write transparently. One of the reason there are so many papers
written poorly is that the authors often have to obfuscate as they do not really understand
what they are doing. People can be taught how to use statistical software packages like SAS,
SPSS, R w/o really understanding the underlying mathematical routines.
During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these
deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of
the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%)
laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable
COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as
either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths ( Figure ).
Compounding the distrust is the polarizing figure of President Donald Trump himself, who proudly
announced the shortened timetable for vaccine development last week. Thirty-six percent of those
polled by Reuters said they would be less likely to take a potential Covid-19 vaccine if it came
recommended by Trump, while just 14 percent thought the president's seal of approval was a positive.
Trump's narrative flip-flops haven't helped his credibility on the vaccine front. From his early
reassurances that the virus would vanish in weeks, to his public conflicts with his own health
advisers over locking down and reopening the country, it's not hard to see why Americans are hesitant
to fall in line behind him on this. But the problem isn't necessarily political. Nearly half of those
uninterested in taking the vaccine said the speed of its development worried them, while over 40
percent said the vaccine would be riskier than actually contracting Covid-19 itself.
However, even 29 percent of those who said they were "
not very interested
" in the
vaccine allowed they'd be willing to change their mind if the shot was approved by the Food and Drug
Administration. The full approval process for vaccines usually takes over a decade, and even the most
optimistic experts – including Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has become the public face of the US' Covid-19
policy – believe a shot won't be ready for another year to 18 months. Rushing a vaccine to market in
the middle of a pandemic means sacrificing comprehensive safety checks for efficiency – a tradeoff
that can be disastrous, as in the case of the 2009 swine flu shot Pandemrix, which caused permanent
brain damage in over 1,000 British patients.
The parallels between Covid-19 and that epidemic are ominous – wildly inflated death predictions
had spooked the UK government into approving Pandemrix without sufficient safety data – and it surely
won't help Americans' trust in this vaccine that Trump's "
vaccine czar
" Moncef Slaoui ran
GlaxoSmithKline's vaccine division during the swine flu debacle. Nor has it been especially heartening
to discover Slaoui's extensive investments in not just Glaxo but many other drug companies working on
potential vaccines.
Slaoui earned $3 million on Monday alone from Moderna, which is still considered the leading
candidate in the vaccine race, even though the drug company has never brought a vaccine to market.
After hyping up what were essentially meaningless preliminary results, Moderna's stock shot up 25
percent, bringing his holdings to over $10 million. He pledged to donate those earnings to "
cancer
research
" after demands for him to divest reached a fever pitch. A vaccine produced at Oxford
University hasn't fared much better, with all six rhesus monkeys who received the shot becoming
infected anyway – despite a preliminary report that tried to spin the failure as representing "
some
"
success.
Threats of mandatory vaccination have unsurprisingly not helped to soothe Americans' worries over a
potentially unsafe vaccine. Fauci and other health officials have repeatedly warned the public that
there will be no return to "
normal
" without a vaccine, even as lockdown restrictions are
slowly lifted – a statement some have interpreted as a threat that the unvaccinated will be barred
from crowded public places or travel. Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz went further, declaring
the government has "
police power
" to mandate Americans take a vaccine and claiming such power
is "
not debatable
" constitutionally. And other experts downplayed the very real concerns
voiced by poll respondents in favor of blaming the "
very aggressive anti-vaccine movement
."
All this is bad news for the health experts Reuters cites, who say 70 percent of Americans would
have to be immune in order to achieve "
herd immunity
" and stop the virus from spreading
through the US, where upwards of 90,000 people have died since the pandemic began.
Healthcare Hot Topics I was a vehement
advocate of prescribing hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) off label while waiting for the results of
clinical trials. I wasn't all that much embarrassed to agree with Donald Trump for once. Now I
feel obliged to note that my guess was totally wrong. I thought that the (uncertain) expected
benefits were greater than the (relatively well known) costs.
The cost is that HCQ affects the heart beat prolonging the QT period (from when the atrium
begins to contract to when the ventrical repolarizes and is read to go again). This can cause
arrhythmia especially in people who already have heart problems. I understood that one might
argue that all people with Covid 19 have heart problems but didn't consider that argument
decisive (I probably should have).
Already in early May, there was evidence that any effect of HCQ on the rate of elimination
of the virus must be small. In this controlled trial conducted in China , the
null of no effect is not rejected. Much more importantly, the point estimates of the effects
over time are all almost exactly zero. I considered the matter settled (although the painfully
disappointed authors tried to argue for HCQ and that their study was not conclusive).
There are now four large retrospective studies all of which suggest no benefit from HCQ and
two of which suggest it causes increased risk of death. I am going to discuss the two studies
most recently reported.
One is a very
large study (fairly big data goes to the hospital) published yesterday in The Lancet. In
this study patients who received HCQ had a significantly higher death rate with a hazard of
dying 1.335 times as high. The estimate comes from a proportional hazard model with a non
parametric baseline probability and takes into account many risk factors including crucially
initial disease severity. It is also important that only patients who were treated within 48
hours of diagnosis were considered.
I think the practical lessons are that it seems unwise to give Covid 19 patients HCQ. Also
maybe Robert Waldmann should be more humble. After the jump, I will discuss the two studies in
some detail and propose an explanation of the difference in results.
A top US scientist has said that people should not count on a Covid-19 vaccine being
developed any time soon...
William Haseltine, the groundbreaking cancer, HIV/AIDS and human genome projects
researcher, has said the best approach to the pandemic is to manage the
disease through careful tracing of infections and strict isolation measures whenever it
starts spreading. He said that while a vaccine could be developed, "I wouldn't count on it",
and urged people to wear masks, wash hands, clean surfaces and keep a distance.
If Nigerian hackers can steal that much money, Israel, Chinese, and Russian, intel agencies
probably are in the most Fed information systems doing what they want ;-)
Notable quotes:
"... officials in Washington State may have lost "hundreds of millions of dollars" to fraudsters filing bogus unemployment claim ..."
officials
in Washington State may have lost "hundreds of millions of dollars" to fraudsters filing bogus
unemployment claim s – all the way from Nigeria.
Remember when the market soared on several days in April on the Facui-touted Remdesivir
study which, according to StatNews and various other unofficial sources of rumors, was a
smashing success only for the optimism to fizzle as
many questions emerged , and as the Gilead drug quietly faded from the public's
consciousness and was replaced by various coronavirus vaccine candidates such as those made by
the greatly hyped Moderna ( whose
insiders just can't
stop selling company stock ).
Meanwhile, those who were waiting for the official version of Remdesivir's effectiveness had
to do so until 6pm on a Friday before a long holiday, and for good reason...
... According to a pivotal study published in the New England Journal of
Medicine late on Friday, Remdesivir, which was authorized to treat Covid-19 in a group of
1063 adults and children (split into two groups, one receiving placebo instead of remdesivir)
who need i) supplemental oxygen, ii) a ventilator or iii) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
(ECMO), only significantly helped those on supplemental oxygen.
Meanwhile, and explaining the 6pm release on a Friday, the study also found no marked
benefit from remdesivir for those who were healthier and didn't need oxygen or those who were
sicker, requiring a ventilator or a heart-lung bypass machine.
The NEJM, almost apologetically, stated that "the lack of benefit seen in the other groups
might have stemmed from a smaller number of patients in each group."
Still, as a result of the partial benefit for patients in the supplemental oxygen group, the
study from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases was evaluated early and
led to the authorization of remdesivir before the full trial was completed.
Our findings highlight the need to identify Covid-19 cases and start antiviral treatment
before the pulmonary disease progresses to require mechanical ventilation.
Some more details on the study, which was a "rank test of the time to recovery with
remdesivir as compared with placebo, with stratification by disease severity":
The primary outcome measure was the time to recovery, defined as the first day, during the
28 days after enrollment, on which a patient satisfied categories 1, 2, or 3 on the
eight-category ordinal scale. The categories are as follows:
not hospitalized, no limitations of activities;
not hospitalized, limitation of activities, home oxygen requirement, or both;
hospitalized, not requiring supplemental oxygen and no longer requiring ongoing medical
care (used if hospitalization was extended for infection-control reasons);
hospitalized, not requiring supplemental oxygen but requiring ongoing medical care
(Covid-19–related or other medical conditions);
5, hospitalized, requiring any supplemental oxygen;
hospitalized, requiring noninvasive ventilation or use of high-flow oxygen devices;
hospitalized, receiving invasive mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane
oxygenation (ECMO); and
death.
The results are summarized below, highlighting the only group that showed a statistically
significant improvement in outcomes as a result of taking the drug vs placebo.
A visual representation of the outcomes is below; it shows that whereas there was a modest
benefit only to patients who were receiving oxygen, the results were statistically
insignificant vs placebo for patients not receiving oxygen, while in a surprising twist
patients on high-flow oxygen or mechanical ventilator/ECMO did modestly better in the placebo
group than those taking remdesivir. Also, the overall results showed a very modest, but not
statistically significant improvement in the remdesivir group vs placebo (box A).
Another disappointment: the study found that overall "mortality was numerically lower in the
remdesivir group than in the placebo group, but the difference was not significant ", in other
words the alleged "miracle drug" has largely the same effect as a placebo in terms of overall
disease mortality.
The study authors also note that the "findings in our trial should be compared with those
observed in a randomized trial from China in which 237 patients were enrolled (158 assigned to
remdesivir and 79 to placebo).... That trial failed to complete full enrollment (owing to the
end of the outbreak), had lower power than the present trial (owing to the smaller sample size
and a 2:1 randomization), and was unable to demonstrate any statistically significant clinical
benefits of remdesivir. "
Finally, the study found that while mortality was modestly lower for the remdesivir arm, it
was not significantly so, at 7.1% at 14 days on drug versus 11.9% on placebo.
In conclusion, while the "preliminary findings support the use of remdesivir for patients
who are hospitalized with Covid-19 and require supplemental oxygen therapy" the study goes on
to warn that " given high mortality despite the use of remdesivir, it is clear that treatment
with an antiviral drug alone is not likely to be sufficient."
The study's recommendation:
Future strategies should evaluate antiviral agents in combination with other therapeutic
approaches or combinations of antiviral agents to continue to improve patient outcomes in
Covid-19.
So a generally disappointing outcome, one which would lead to a drop in the market.
Nonsense: think of all the spin, and why this is in fact great news for stocks: Remdesivir may
be a dud as a "silver bullet" to curing covid, leading to statistically significant improvement
in only a very limited subset of infected patients and "high mortality" for those taking it,
but at least the algos will have a whole lot of other "miracle drugs" to levitate them as
optimism that the next remdesivir is just around the corner. In short: rinse, rumor, and
repeat... and then save the bad news for 6pm on a Friday.
Oh, and for those asking about the "official" reason why the NE Journal of Medicine waited
until just the right time to make sure nobody reads the results, here it is:
I asked NEJM spox to explain the Friday 6 pm release of the remdesivir study. Her response
is below. pic.twitter.com/WjNGyUv7sH
But what about the snitches and the virtue signalers and the screamingly fearful faux
celebrities, and how can you be so cruel to the currently essential who if we re-open have to
return to being just another bunch of working stiffs. Have you not seen the vasty deep
outpouring of love and affection we are currently piling on the Nurse Ratcheds and Dr. Evils
of the world for their virtuous and self effacing tv commercials and the many glorious PSAs
with paeans and "we're all in this together" sophistries from various health insurance
companies and makers of very expensive symptom mollifiers?
I am sorry sir, but I must disagree. We must not only keep closed that which is currently
closed, we must use the power of the IC and the various state and federal militaries and
national guards to close down all the open and partially opened states and cities and towns
and farms and counties and any other political subdivisions of this great nation until we are
truly "all in this together".
Or
We could just open all of it, now.
If we did, we would be back to normal in about 60 days, some places would open with new
management, some folks would enjoy continued unemployment until they were called back.
I, personally, expect that except for Ca and NY the country will be reopen about 90 days
prior to the election.
The liberal media and legislators applied the 100% solution to 1% of the population, if that
much.
That was failed leadership; that was slavish "following orders". That was a loss of the
maxim "trust, but verify" maxim. This powerful legacy of the Reagan era, must be put back at
the forefront of any public decision process. Question authority needs repeating as well.
Our public education system failed us completely for too many decades. Teaching
generations of Americans to be critical of America, is not teaching them critical thinking
skills. We need to own up to that, from our local school boards on up.
These non-science , not thinking, hateful liberal media and politicians deserve the 100%
solution - 100% voted out of office in 2020. Liberal media and legislators must get a new
message. Voting and boycotting are the two primary tools we have. Some stunning upsets in
primary races are already occurring. It will be morning in America again.
But may we never forget why so many were so willing to shoot ourselves in the foot. For
what end purpose? Were we ever so collectively scared as a Nation in the past, that we were
willing destroy ourselves as we witnessed happening these past few money - no nuance, no
graduated response, no scalpel wiled with professional precision.
What happened to our true grit as Americans? How did we get into this devastatingly false
dichotomy - total submission or we are all going to die.
Will there be a post mortem examination of the corpse of our once vibrant nation? This
requires honest soul searching. I honestly don't think we have the tools to do this any
longer. I hope I am wrong. In fact I would be greatly comforted to be proven wrong.
Will current national leadership rise to this challenge? Or has the Black Swan yet to
arrive. Or do we start this soul-searching right here and right now, one by one. "Stronger
together". Will the Karens stop demanding we go through their menopause danger years with
them.
It is astonishing that no one is talking about the death profile from covid19 (or as it
should have been named - the Wuhan coronavirus). Over there in the UK, the median age of
death from covid is 83-84.
There has been a lot of talk about Children dying of covid. Only 2 (two) children under
the age of 10 have died from covid since it started and they probably had other conditions.
This is in a total population of 65million.
Fully 90% of the deaths from covid19 are in the ages of 65+ and that segment of the
population doesn't, by and large, participate in production in the economy (of goods or
services). While death is always sad and it will lead to grieving, we have to understand that
people always die, especially the old and infirm. Anyways, no one is suggesting that they
should be left to fend for themselves, the older people and those with conditions makes them
high risk should be isolated.
The UK closed the massive Nightingale hospitals that were set up to handle thousands of
patients. The one in London handled a total of 54 before shutting down. Clearly, we had
over-provisioned for the outbreak (as we should) but very clearly we are past the worst.
Please OPEN UP THE ECONOMY. And do it NOW. The deaths being avoided are not worth keeping
the economy shut down, not only in the UK but across the world.
People point towards the Spanish flu where most deaths happened in the 2nd wave. Well,
most of those deaths would not have happened had antibiotics been invented then. The deaths
were due to subsequent bacterial infections (usually pneumonia) after the virus weakened the
immune system.
We need to start going back to normal and we need to do it now!
Democrats - the Dream Killers. Meanwhile immigration is our strength, multi-national
corporations may operate, private businesses may not - "for the common good" as Deborah
Dingell, former GM lobbyist and now successor to John D's hold on power in Congress and the
DNC, likes to repeat daily on her FB stream of concousness - along with exhortations to
obedience.
"By prolonging the coronavirus shutdown long after its core mission was accomplished, Gov.
Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio have plunged tens of thousands of New Yorkers into
poverty."
Poverty apparently doesn't kill anyone infected with this virus, but it sure is killing
our freedoms and thanks to Cuomo and Whitmer it has killed thousands in nursing homes. The
press is all praise for them, and tries to gin up stories about other governors, such as De
Santis of Florida, or ignores them, as they are going with the story in Georgia.
Sir,
I was a fence sitter/agnostic until the end of February or early March. Then there was enough
data in to be able to understand that the elderly needed to be protected and the rest of
should go about life as normal. When you first posted about panic, I wasn't seeing a panic as
I would define it. Then a few days later lockdowns were announced. You had the jump on that
one!
Just to summarize what I have been saying since the lockdown started, there are going to
be more deaths (and many more years of life lost) from all of the people not able and/or too
afraid to engage in regular healthcare services than there will be killed by the virus - and
from the effects of economic destruction.
The Mayor of Ithaca, NY - not a conservative by any means - made an appeal to Cuomo to
open the economy back up and to allow students to return to colleges. He says his college
town (includes Cornell U) had the best economy in all of NY up to the lockdown (lowest
unemployment, etc). Now he can't collect enough tax revenue to pay police and other public
servants.
And that's what I don't get about this scheme to establish a new [socialist] normal. How
do the socialists think they are going to generate revenues to pay for everything they want?
It's almost as if they don't understand economics 101. Will they turn on their limousine
faction and confiscate their wealth along with that of conservatives? Do they really imagine
that no one is going to fight back (I mean with votes, pitchforks, guns...whatever)? For that
matter, same goes for the non-scheming sincere useful science geek/idiots. They are supposed
to be engineer types, but where are the sober calculations of costs and benefits? What are
they thinking?
Re:
A lot of people die every day of a variety of causes. This virus is a reaper that culls the
population, eliminating the weak and the old. The great majority of healthy, productive
people survive infection with little or no apparent effect.
The last or only time this brushed me was with polio in Detroit in the 50's. Following
your "re-open the country, all of it" swimming pools and Belle Isle would never have been
closed would have remained open in August and September to allow nature to thin-out
Detroit's/the country's weakest.
Yeah, too bad about all those doctors and nurses dying. Easily replaced, I'm sure.
It's just math, folks. Epidemics are math...you can either go with the math or try to
change the equation and the outcome of the math. I, personally, would rather try to change
the equation.
"The greater good ..." How many doctors and nurses really? How many? You should remember
about me that I am accustomed to sacrificing people for the greater good. That is MY
professional deformation.
New York City is still getting hundreds of new cases and hospitalizations a day. How many
people will want to go to crowded indoor places? If there is social distancing with lots of
empty chairs and spaces, how many closed places could make any money if they opened?
There's been a lot of uncertainty and guesswork involved with this new virus and that will
continue. We came through the first round with some hotspots but most places doing OK. I
think we were right to shut down when we did and that we need to be careful in opening back
up. I still trust Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx.
Certainly it's time to start relaxing restrictions in most places. But we need to remember
that this is a new virus with many unknowns and that we are all vulnerable because there's no
proven ttestment that works, cure or vaccine.
I have to say that this crisis has taken on a symbolic importance for some. It has not for
me. I think this will lead to a lot more disagreement about what should be done in the
future, particularly if we have addition waves. That makes me feel uneasy -- very uneasy. I
am not assuming we're going to have a very effective vaccine within a year so we may be
living with this threat for a long time.
Eric, socialists in California have one standard answer when confronted with funding for
their schemes: They'll find the money. .
End of all practical discussion. When asked for details, they will invariably add .. "you
had money for the Vietnam war .... the military etc. Just use that money."
Only two decades of total socialism in this state has this done to our fiscal literacy.
"Just tax the rich" gets anything passed. Cruel fact in this state, the rich - just the top
1% in this state pay 50% of all state revenues. Only a handful of people pay half the
bills.
Should any of this top 1% leave, like Musk recently threatened, shock waves will reach the
state's executive suite. But this threat will fall on deaf ears in the state's Democrat
super-majority legislature.
Voters finally are catching on - they lost their livelihood due to government actions, but
government employees never missed a paycheck. How this translates at the ballot box remains
to be seen. Two Democrats getting recently tossed out is a good start, but is it a trend?
My own local city council yesterday just gave all SEIU employees a raise; while our entire
economy, much of it dependent on tourism, has been totally trashed. This is what a Democrat
one party state looks like.
"How do the socialists think they are going to generate revenues to pay for everything they
want?"
Eric,
Simple. Print money. As they've been doing since the GFC at scale. The added benefit is
that the biggest beneficiary of socialism - the titan of capitalism - Wall St - will get the
lion's share as they're getting now with the Wuhan virus lockdown. Average Joe peon should be
thankful they got $1,200.
Powell on 60 Minutes says there's no limit to the Fed printing money. He like Bernanke
loves to click Print on the keyboard. And no pesky Congressional authorization either. MOAR
& MOAR!!
It's feeling pretty normal here in SW Florida now, rumor is Jun 1st the bars will open up and
that makes it 100% normal. I know of at least 6 restaurants in Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda
that will not re-open. We go through the restaurant closings every year anyway, "Season"
ended early this year with the lock down. Memorial Day usually is when we get the closings.
But, they will reopen with new owners who have recently retired and "have always wanted to
own a restaurant" not understanding that the restaurant business is for the younger, just as
life is.
I feel awful when I see the little old ladies driving alone in their cars with their masks
on, victims of the MSM that are truly a national security threat.
Sir,
The fact of the Khmer Rouge and the mentality behind it (at bottom, same as Mao, same as
Stalin same others that brought death, destruction and misery to their societies) is another
reason to get back to normal in this country - and accept any casualties that might result.
This has become a war for the heart and soul of the country. Actually, it's a war for
everything; even material prosperity. Whatever the casualties might be in the short run, they
will be far less than the long run if we allow the Khmer Rouge to continue (which, of course,
is one of your key points).
One of my objectives on social media has been to try to gain insight into the Khmer Rouge
and young pioneer psychology. I can now recognize it when I see it; even when it tries to
disguise itself, but I truly don't understand such people. IMO it is some kind of twisted
spiritual illness that seeks dominance as it replaces God with themselves. That much I can
see. I guess it has to do with the battle between good and evil. Evil always seeks to control
and manipulate and disrespects the sanctity of each soul. It seeks to enslave and cut off
from freedom and recognition of divinity around each of us and in each of us. Its sycophants
are attracted to the sense of power; false as it may truly be.
Our natural capacity for threat perception and assessment is warped by the media's need to
generate headlines. The virus is a gift to them which they have enthusiastically embraced.
Most of us have a vanishing small chance of it killing us off, yet this single risk dominates
the public discourse to the exclusion of almost all else.
Social media is particularly insidious, the effects of which far too few are prepared to
counter. The feedback loops of hysteria it generates must be assessed as a threat in their
own right - to our ability to make sound judgments.
A destroyed economy is not a direct threat to any one individual's survival, but it's
collapse is an inevitable consequence if the lockdowns are allowed to continue. In this case
many will die and very many more will experience a great deal of misery. Sadly the headlines
carrying these stories will only come after it is far too late.
Turn off the Tee Vee news, treat social media 'news' with great skepticism and read the
opinions of people who see the bigger picture. You are in the right place for the last of
these.
Open it up-It never should of closed. What we have done is to prolong the inevitable. You
either get it or you don't but it is still here waiting for those cowering in their homes.
Prudent actions and awareness of your situation will get one through most of life's
events.
The next thing we will here is Oh Folks, get out there and enjoy the summer while you can as
it's coming back in the fall. No schools, Sheltering in Place, minimize the essentials, where
are those ships and tent hospitals, we need PPE, start the printing etc etc cause the vaccine
ain't ready Folks.
It will all be fine, don't worry. Keep in mind it has only taken a 100,000 out 330,000,000
a very low ratio.
The US government will issue 3 trillion $ of new debt in this quarter alone. The banks
will buy these bonds, then sell them back to the US Central Bank (that's called "quantitative
easing", the quoted article talks about the expectation that the central bank will announce a
new bond purchasing program soon because the current one is far too small to absorb all the
new debt), and the cycle repeats.
That's not sustainable, but that's the only plan that exists. If the shutdown of the
economy continues indefinitely, it will end in economic collapse by bankruptcy of the federal
government, or hyperinflation, which is really just a different way to reach the same painful
end point.
Same story here in Europe, just with the added complication that there are conflicts
between the different national governments of the Eurozone when the European Central Bank
does the very same thing.
You can open up the city when everyone starts to wear a
mask . Covid-19 is proving to be an airborne killer... which simplifies things
enormously. Consider it an instance of CBW. And of course the children's inflammatory
syndrome is just collateral damage.
Master Slacker--And now there is some evidence that the inflammatory syndrome is hitting
teenagers and young adults, too.
turocpolier--The numbers aren't comprehensive (or even good) on the national toll of
doctors and nurses and aides and CNAs, etc. in health care/hospitals. Too bad our government
can't get everyone to report in a uniform manner!!!! (Not that any other administration has
been successful with this either.) It certainly would be helpful in the middle of a novel
pandemic to know if we were going to have enough front line responders to stay in the
fight.
And I NEVER forget that you are a professional "sacrificer for the greater good." That is
why I appreciate what you have to say...it is a worthy perspective and not one that I default
to!
So "my body, my choice" is for abortion only now, because your fear is greater than my
rights? "stay home, stay safe" negates my need to wear a gag in your presence. I reccomend
Kevin Drum go out and drum up some antifa support for the socialist distancing policing. They
ought to be well rested and ready for some agit-prop and agent provocateur actions by
now.
Connecticut and North Carolina are missing some weeks in 2020 (5 weeks & 3 weeks
respectively). Pennsylvania is also negative but not missing any weeks. Interesting, I'll
have to look into that.
The entire USA is about 4.5% higher than the 4 year average.
In some online discussions some were suggesting using "excess deaths" to see what
effect the covid-19 disease is having and I thought that would be a reasonable approach as it
gets past the deaths "with/from" issue.
California 88731 91453 2722
Florida 65372 68427 3055
Georgia 26955 27649 694
Illinois 35539 38088 2549
Massachusetts 19074 21800 2726
Michigan 31957 35598 3640
New Jersey 24525 32600 8075
New York State 33187 39267 6079
New York City 17614 35524 17910
Pennsylvania 44275 37383 -6892
The script generates data for all 50 states plus DC and New York City (CDC treats it
separately from New York State).
I follow the advice of Ken Thompson, "When in doubt use brute force". The script is
nothing fancy and dumps to file a lot as that is how I like to debug.
I will be doing up a Powershell script for this as well so the Windows folks can run it
natively if they don't have WSL2 or a Linux system around.
The vast majority of America's nurses say they have not been tested for Covid-19, are
reusing personal protective equipment (PPE), or have exposed skin or clothing while caring for
Covid-19 patients, a new survey has shown.
The nationally representative survey finds that "dangerous healthcare workplace conditions
have become the norm" since Covid-19 spread widely in the US,
said the union which conducted the survey. More than 100 nurses have died
since the beginning of the pandemic .
"We've known for years we're behind," said Jean Ross, president of National Nurses United.
"Not because we couldn't have what we needed – because we are the richest country on the
planet – but because of greed, because of the profit system that doesn't really look out
for the welfare of patients. Therefore it couldn't possibly look out for the welfare of
workers." ...
The survey asked more than 23,000 nurses across all 50 states and Washington DC about their
working conditions since the pandemic began. The survey represents the period between 15 April
and 10 May, and was conducted by National Nurses United. It included both union and non-union
nurses.
In it, surveyors found 84% of nurses had not been tested for Covid-19, 87% are forced to
reuse personal protective equipment designed to be single-use, such as N95 masks and face
shields, and 72% of nurses have exposed skin or clothing while treating coronavirus
patients.
Prior infection with other coronavirus strains appears to confer an enhanced immune response
to covid19. Smokers are at a lower risk of contracting covid19 infections. Perhaps the two
observations are related? Smokers generally have poorer lung health and may be more likely to
acquire lung infections such as those caused by other varieties of coronavirus and to develop
antibody protection. So maybe their vulnerability to such infections has proved an advantage
in this case?
"Immune warriors known as T cells help us fight some viruses, but their importance for
battling SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been unclear. Now, two studies
reveal infected people harbor T cells that target the virus -- and may help them recover.
Both studies also found some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular
defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses."
Thanks for drawing attention to this, b.
The T cell/Common Cold factor may help to explain why children are less likely to be
infected by COVID-19 than adults. I can recall that when each of my own offspring went
through that miserable, snotty-nosed toddler phase, there seemed to be no upside for them or
their parents. In retrospect, maybe it was producing a hidden benefit?
With respect to highly addictive nicotine, it is not hard to find any number of "healthful"
justifications for continuing with the (disgusting, imho) smoking habit.
Why, there is already an extensive body of scientific "evidence" one can latch onto that
nicotine is beneficial in Parkinson's disease:
But with regard to anecdotal/unverified [touch'e] claims of nicotine benefits in covid,
one should not reflexively ignore the evidence to the contrary that conflict with one's
pro-nicotine bias/belief system:}
"They looked at the expression of ACE2, the molecule in the respiratory tract that the
COVID-19 virus uses to attach to and infect human cells. They also looked at the
expression of FURIN and TMPRSS2, human enzymes known to facilitate COVID-19 virus
infection.
The researchers report in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine a
25 percent increase in the expression of ACE2 in lung tissues from ever-smokers, people who
have smoked at least 100 cigarettes during their lives, when compared with nonsmokers.
Smoking also increased the presence of FURIN, but to a lower extent compared to ACE2 .
TMRPSS2 expression in lungs was not associated with smoking. They also found that smoking
remodeled the gene expression of cells in the lungs so that the ACE2 gene was more highly
expressed in goblet cells, cells that secrete mucus in order to protect the mucous membranes
in the lungs ."
But if you are totally bent on using a non-addictive feel-good drug that Israelis say may
prevent/fight against the Corona-chan, try CANNABIS:
An MD
wrote this op/ed dealing with the hypoxia caused by the coronavirus and provides evidence
in support of Dr. Bush's video interview that can be reached through the link @135 above.
Yes, the op/ed's a month old, but the dynamics of the virus haven't changed nor have the
frequency of deaths within the Outlaw US Empire.
Based on the doctor's first hand testimony and other studies, the initial treatment
approach advocated by Dr. Bush and its reasoning seem quite pragmatic and logical.
Comparison with Malaria yields almost no correlation aside from the malaria parasite's
use of red blood cells as nurseries and lairs, which may explain why anti-malaria drugs used
against COVID-19 in its initial stages have some positive results.
The Front-Line COVID-19 Critical Care Working Group (EVMS is part of that group) has this to
say about HCQ:
Some have asked why our initial protocol included hydroxychloroquine, the anti-viral drug
that was widely touted as a cure for the COVID-19 disease that is caused by the virus.
Almost all ER and ICU physicians tried it before a study published in the New England
Journal of Medicine showed it to have no effect on mortality in patients with severe cases
of the disease. Our FLCCC Working Group currently believes that, if hydroxychloroquine
proves to have any benefit, it will most likely be in the earliest stage of infection,
while the virus replicates and the patient is still at home, before breathing difficulties
or low oxygen levels necessitate a trip to the hospital.
Dr. Kory Senate Testimony before the Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee
Hearing (Vimeo video) https://vimeo.com/415698366
Dr. Kory is Pierre Kory, M.D., M.P.A., Medical Director, Trauma & Life Support Center,
Critical Care Service Chief, Associate Professor of Medicine Univ. of Wisconsin School of
Medicine & Public Health - one of eight medical professionals on the FLCCC team.
Note: I do *not* explicitly endorse any of this. I am not a doctor, nor do I play one on
MoA. But I find their arguments reasonable to the degree I can comprehend them.
Just watched Dr. Kory's testimony before the Senate Committee I referenced above... Link
again: https://vimeo.com/415698366
I recommend it to everyone. Again, I can't speak to the medicine, but I think you'll find
him highly persuasive, if rather desperate to fit his arguments into the time allotted him
(which he overran.)
At least we got a number for the patients treated with their complete MATH+ Protocol -
merely 100 (at the time of his testimony.) That's not a high number that persuades me. But he
also cites a number of other doctors around the country and in Italy who have tried
corticosteroids and apparently they consider it a "game-changer" in treatment, in that it
massively reduces the number of people needing to be put on ventilators. He emphasizes that
the treatment is safe, physiologically sound, well-recognized as useful for the conditions
caused by the virus for years, and although "off-label" for this disease it is not unusual to
do "off-label" and that is supported by all the medical association ethical standards.
But he emphasizes that the treatment needs to be started as soon as respirator symptoms
develop and he is concerned that too many people are avoiding going to the hospital until
it's too late. This of course raises the question as to whether this is another treatment -
like HCQ - that "only" works at early stages and therefore is not necessarily proven by
trials, but is only supported by "observation" in the hospital.
Of course, the solution to that is run the bloody trial. Or at least use the treatment on
a greater number of treatments and see how it washes out. He's concerned that they can't get
the White House to listen - big surprise, there.
The coerced economic "shutdowns" - enforced with fines, arrests, and revoked business
licenses - are not the natural outgrowth of a pandemic. They are the result of policy decisions
taken by politicians who have suspended constitutional institutions and legal recognition of
basic human rights. These politicians have instead imposed a new form of central planning based
on an unproven, theoretical set of ideas about police-enforced "social distancing."
None of that is being considered, however, since it is now fashionable to have governments
determine whether or not people may open their businesses or leave their homes. So far, the
strategy for dealing with the resulting economic collapse is no more sophisticated than
record-breaking
deficit spending , followed by debt monetization via money printing. In short, politicians,
bureaucrats, and their supporters have insisted a single policy goal -- ending the spread of a
disease -- be allowed to destroy all other values and considerations in society.
Has it even worked? Mounting evidence says no.
In The
Lancet , Swedish infectious disease clinician (and World Health Organization (WHO) advisor)
Johan Giesecke concluded:
It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in
care homes - a population the lockdown was designed to protect. Neither does it decrease
mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK's experience with that of
other European countries.
At best, lockdowns push cases into the future, they do not lower total deaths. Gieseck
continues:
Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe
cases into the future -- it will not prevent them. Admittedly, countries have managed to slow
down spread so as not to overburden health-care systems, and, yes, effective drugs that save
lives might soon be developed, but this pandemic is swift, and those drugs have to be
developed, tested, and marketed quickly. Much hope is put in vaccines, but they will take
time, and with the unclear protective immunological response to infection, it is not certain
that vaccines will be very effective.
As a public policy measure, the lack of evidence that lockdowns work must be balanced with
the fact that we have already observed that economic destruction is costly in terms of human
life.
Yet in the public debate, lockdown enthusiasts insist that any deviation from the lockdown
will result in total deaths far exceeding those places where there are lockdowns. So far, there
is no evidence of this.
In a new study titled "Full Lockdown Policies in Western Europe Countries Have No Evident
Impacts on the COVID-19 Epidemic," author Thomas Meunier writes , "total deaths
numbers using pre-lockdown trends suggest that no lives were saved by this strategy, in
comparison with pre-lockdown, less restrictive, social distancing policies." That is, the "full
lockdown policies of France, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom haven't had the expected effects
in the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic." 1
The premise here is not that voluntary "social distancing" has no effect. Rather, the
question is to whether "police-enforced home containment" works to limit the spread of disease.
Meunier concludes it does not.
The question the model set out to ask was whether lockdown states experience fewer
Covid-19 cases and deaths than social-distancing states, adjusted for all of the above
variables. The answer? No. The impact of state-response strategy on both my cases and deaths
measures was utterly insignificant. The "p-value" for the variable representing strategy was
0.94 when it was regressed against the deaths metric, which means there is a 94 per cent
chance that any relationship between the different measures and Covid-19 deaths was the
result of pure random chance.
Overall, however, the fact that good-sized regions from Utah to Sweden to much of East
Asia have avoided harsh lockdowns without being overrun by Covid-19 is notable.
Another study on lockdowns -- again, we're talking about forced business closures and
stay-at-home orders here -- is this study by researcher Lyman Stone at
the American Enterprise Institute. Stone notes that areas where lockdowns were imposed either
had already experienced a downward trend in deaths before the lockdown could have possibly
shown effects or showed the same trend as the year prior. In other words, lockdown advocates
have been taking credit for trends that had already been observed before lockdowns were forced
on the population.
Stone writes:
Here's the thing: there's no evidence of lockdowns working. If strict lockdowns actually
saved lives, I would be all for them, even if they had large economic costs. But the
scientific and medical case for strict lockdowns is paper-thin.
Experience increasingly suggests that a more targeted approach is better for those who
actually want to limit the spread of disease among the most vulnerable. The overwhelming
majority -- nearly 75 percent -- of deaths from COVID-19 occur in patients over sixty-five
years of age. Of those, approximately 90 percent have other underlying
conditions . Thus, limiting the spread of COVID-19 is most critical among those who are
already engaged with the healthcare system and are elderly. In the
US and Europe ,
more than half of COVID-19 deaths are occuring in nursing homes and similar institutions.
This is why Matt Ridley at The Spectator quite reasonably
observes that testing, not lockdowns, appears to be the key factor in limiting deaths from
COVID-19 . Those areas where testing is widespread have performed better:
Yet it is not obvious why testing would make a difference, especially to the death rate.
Testing does not cure the disease. Germany's strange achievement of a consistently low case
fatality rate seems baffling -- until you think through where most early cases were found: in
hospitals. By doing a lot more testing, countries like Germany might have partly kept the
virus from spreading within the healthcare system. Germany, Japan and Hong Kong had different
and more effective protocols in place from day one to prevent the virus spreading within care
homes and hospitals.
The horrible truth is that it now looks like in many of the early cases, the disease was
probably caught in hospitals and doctors' surgeries. That is where the virus kept returning,
in the lungs of sick people, and that is where the next person often caught it, including
plenty of healthcare workers. Many of these may not have realised they had it, or thought
they had a mild cold. They then gave it to yet more elderly patients who were in hospital for
other reasons, some of whom were sent back to care homes when the National Health Service
made space on the wards for the expected wave of coronavirus patients.
We could contrast this with the policies of Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York, who mandated
that nursing homes accept new residents
without testing . This method nearly ensures that the disease will spread quickly among
those who are most likely to die from it.
Meanwhile, Governor Cuomo saw fit to impose police-enforced lockdowns on the entire
population of New York, ensuring economic ruin and ruined health for many non-COVID patients
who were then cut off from vital treatments. Yet, disturbingly, lockdown fetishists like Cuomo
are hailed as wise statesmen who "acted decisively" to prevent the spread of disease.
But this is the sort of regime we now live under. In the minds of many, it is better to
abolish human rights and consign millions to destitution in the name of pursuing trendy
unproven policies. The prolockdown party has even turned basic fundamentals of policy debate
upside down. As Stone notes:
At this point, the question I usually get is, "What's your evidence that lockdowns don't
work?"
It's a strange question. Why should I have to prove that lockdowns don't work? The burden
of proof is to show that they do work! If you're going to essentially cancel the civil
liberties of the entire population for a few weeks, you should probably have evidence that
the strategy will work. And there, lockdown advocates fail miserably, because they simply
don't have evidence.
With economic output crashing worldwide and unemployment soaring to Great Depression levels,
governments are already looking for a way out. Don't expect to hear any mea culpas from
politicians, but we can already see how governments are quickly moving toward a voluntary
social-distancing, nonlockdown strategy. This comes even after politicians and disease
"experts" have been insisting that
lockdowns must be imposed indefinitely until there's a vaccine .
The longer the lockdown-created economic destruction continues, the greater will be the
threat of social unrest and even economic free fall. The political reality is thst the current
situation cannot be sustained without threatening the regimes in power themselves. In an
article for Foreign Policy titled "
Sweden's Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World's ," authors Nils Karlson, Charlotta
Stern, and Daniel B. Klein suggest that regimes will be forced to retreat to a Swedish
model:
As the pain of national lockdowns grows intolerable and countries realize that managing --
rather than defeating -- the pandemic is the only realistic option, more and more of them
will begin to open up. Smart social distancing to keep health-care systems from being
overwhelmed, improved therapies for the afflicted, and better protections for at-risk groups
can help reduce the human toll. But at the end of the day, increased -- and ultimately, herd
-- immunity may be the only viable defense against the disease, so long as vulnerable groups
are protected along the way. Whatever marks Sweden deserves for managing the pandemic, other
nations are beginning to see that it is ahead of the curve.
Don't forget 'Covidiots'. The frontline-worker-lovin', government-narrative-believin'
social-distance welcomin' simpletons are endlessly inventive when it comes to coining
contemptuous nicknames for those who don't buy into their embrace of madness. I am happy to
be able to say I thought the virus was bogus from the first, and said so to anyone who
would listen.
That's too simplistic. You should agree that religious nuts who attend the church in large
groups despite the risk can and should be called "Covidiots". Because they are. And the
people who are trying to preserve their meager income generally should not.
Why religious nuts can't move to outdoors for the same purpose like first Chirstians did,
is unclear to me ;-). Not sure about Orthodox Jews, which is pretty closed sect in any case
so if they want to infect each other, be my guest.
The virus causes specific for it virus pneumonia which is no joke. People who recovered
still have fibroses in this lungs of different degree. That's why people who were
hospitalized with COVID-19 are ineligible to serve in US army. So for those unlucky who get
virus pneumonia that's a crippling disease. You can't deny this.
For around 15-20% of people over 65 infected with COVID-19 it means the death sentence --
they will never recover and either die in hospital or soon after. Men over 65 are two third
of those so for old men the risk can't be discounted.
So the question is what forms and length of quarantine was optimal, not whether it should
or should not be enforced. I doubt that you want to argue that night clubs should remain
open. Or that wearing masks in closed spaces is redundant (in open spaces they generally are
redundant, unless you are standing in line, etc)
You also need some timeout to collect the vital information about the disease using first
cases, enhance the protection of medical personnel, and access the level of actual risk to
the population and the economy (the USA generally wasted it and Trump was inapt; so the
effect of quarantine is more questionable for this particular country).
It was not that clear in March that the risk is generally low, although we can't deny that
Fauci and Co were caught without pants (or, for some sinister reason were intended to be
caught this way as if they waited until epidemic got to a certain point that masks something
else )
That does not excuse incompetence of Trump administration and very strange behaviors of
Fauci, who spent two months and then woke up and suddenly start crying Wolf, Wolf, but the
USA is very mysterious country and in no way Canadians can understand it
The Argument Against the Argument Against Facemasks
Resistance rooted in liberty clashes with the unalienable right of life https://tinyurl.com/yctjydmx
Masks help stop the spread of coronavirus – the science is simple and I'm one of 100
experts urging governors to require public mask-wearing https://tinyurl.com/yah8orzo
More than 80% of Americans support closing non-essential businesses. Support for limiting
restaurants, closing schools, canceling sporting and entertainment events, and group
gatherings exceeds 90%. A total of 94% strongly or somewhat approve asking people to stay
home and avoid gathering in groups; 92% support canceling major sports and entertainment
events; 91% approve closing K-12 schools; 91% approve limiting restaurants to carry-out
only; 83% approve closing businesses other than grocery stores and pharmacies. There are
some partisan differences on these items -- Republicans are somewhat less supportive, but
even among Republicans large majorities support all of these measures; and, as summarized
below, support is largely consistent across every state.
A bipartisan consensus opposes a rapid "reopening" of the economy. Only 7% support
immediate reopening of the economy, and the median respondent supports waiting four to six
weeks. There is a bipartisan consensus on waiting (89% of Republicans as compared to 96% of
Democrats opposed immediate re-opening), and Republicans support a somewhat faster
re-opening of the economy than Democrats, where the median Republican supports waiting two
to four weeks versus median Democrat six to eight weeks. As discussed below, even in those
Republican-led states which are moving toward re-opening, few people support reopening
immediately
Generally, Americans report adhering to social distancing, indicating that they had minimal
social interactions with people outside of their households. That said, 56% reported
encountering at least one person from outside of their home in the preceding 24 hours (and
7% reported encountering 10 or more persons); the survey did not contain information on the
circumstances of those encounters (e.g., was it at grocery stores? were the individuals
wearing masks?). Generally, there were not large differences with respect to age, gender,
race, income, partisanship or education. An exception was that Asian Americans were
substantially less likely to encounter other individuals, and more likely to avoid contact
with other people. There were significant racial differences reported in wearing face masks
outside of the home, with 51% of whites reporting following recommendations very closely,
along with 62% of Hispanics, 64% of African Americans, and 68% of Asian Americans. There
was also an age gradient in this regard, ranging from 50% face mask wearing for 18-24 year
olds to 60% of those aged 65 or higher. There were also partisan differences: 51% of
Republicans, compared to 64% for Democrats, reported wearing face masks outside the home.
I find the racial differences interesting, especially since in my observation fewer blacks
are wearing masks. However, since I was specifically looking at blacks (due to the
disproportionate number of blacks dying) in my walks, I may have under counted the number of
whites not wearing masks. Also I suspect it varies between cities, states and more suburban
or rural areas.
In any event, not enough people are wearing masks to re-open the economy - and we damn
sure don't have enough testing, tracing and isolating capability and probably won't until
September, according to one report I read.
A number of other interesting results. Check it out.
From the most recent CDC COVID-19 mortality data report, Feb 1 to May 16:
> US deaths 62,515 [which are inflated, and yet comparable to annual flu deaths]
> US deaths from all causes – 97% of expected deaths. [i.e. no 'excess' deaths] . .
here
> The media currently reports 90,694 deaths which they get from Johns Hopkins. That's an
organization which ought to be examined. CDC data is not used by the media, but CDC doesn't
have a great record either:
> CDC estimates that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been 24,000
– 63,000 flu deaths . . here
> For 2017-2018, the CDC first estimated 80,000 flu deaths, then later reduced the
estimate (their word) to 61,000.
> In the news now: San Diego County California public health first reported 194 Covid
deaths out of a population of 3.3 million. After autopsies and testing of tissue, health
department reported only 6 of the 194 actually died of Covid.
> Meanwhile the lives of millions of people of all ages have been adversely affected.
> But hey, the banks have more money.
There is a statistical possibility a vaccine comes out next year. But his possibility is
remote. The key here is that a vaccine must be tested to the exhaustion before being ok'd by
any government for mass use. Any mistake can result in a number of deaths that will make this
pandemic look like child's play. My opinion is that the NYT is feeding too much enthusiasm to
its readers.
The Moderna Vaccine the media is touting as a promising, miracle breakthrough that has only
been tested on a limited group of 45 people, aged 18 to 55 has Grade 3 adverse effects in 100
and 250 microgram dosage.
So they're going to lower dosage to 50 micrograms and test it on the 56 to 70 and over 70
age groups. What about the group most Americans are in: the KFC, McDonald's, IHOP group?
"... There are some who parrot Big Pharma vested interests in ridiculing and denigrating hydroxychloroquine, despite the very notable positive results several countries such as China, Russia, Iran and Turkey have had with it, while vainly spouting the benefits of smoking despite complete lack of quality research papers supporting it and abundant quality papers against. ..."
"... Research is not created equal. There is good research (some, not so much) and there is bad research (bundles of it), mostly funded by vested interests, who where necessary direct the desired results. In general, research from China and Russia arguably tends to be higher quality and more reliable because those countries place the emphasis on health for society, not on profits for the corporations. ..."
But with regard to anecdotal/unverified [touch'e] claims of nicotine benefits in covid,
one should not reflexively ignore the evidence to the contrary that conflict with one's
pro-nicotine bias/belief system:}
"Smokers more likely to express ACE2 protein that SARS-COV-2 uses to enter human cells"
"Tobacco smoking increases lung entry points for COVID-19 virus"
Posted by: gm | May 19 2020 16:13 utc | 129
Touché again gm!
It is indeed desperate grasping at straws to believe that smoking will protect against
Covid-19 when far higher quality research clearly indicates increased risk from smoking that
the disease will be more severe (the latter also being the more plausible result).
As I commented the last time B raised this issue, there is one genuine effect of a
past history of smoking that statistically reduces risk of death from Covid-19 -
namely smoking significantly reduces expected lifespan, and therefore reduces the risk of
living long enough to reach the highest risk age groups for severe Covid-19. Alternatively
expressed - smoking kills you off first before you get a chance to be killed by Covid, if
that is what you want. Post-hoc nicotine patches at a late stage deny you even that
advantage.
There are some who parrot Big Pharma vested interests in ridiculing and denigrating
hydroxychloroquine, despite the very notable positive results several countries such as
China, Russia, Iran and Turkey have had with it, while vainly spouting the benefits of
smoking despite complete lack of quality research papers supporting it and abundant quality
papers against.
At this point it is worth reminding of criticism of the untrustworthiness of modern
medical science from the editors of some of the top medical journals:
"It is simply no longer possible to believe much of the clinical research that is
published, or to rely on the judgment of trusted physicians or authoritative medical
guidelines. I take no pleasure in this conclusion, which I reached slowly and reluctantly
over my two decades as editor of The New England Journal of Medicine"
Angell M. Drug Companies & Doctors: A Story of Corruption. The New York Review of Books
magazine.
More recently, Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet, wrote that "The case against science
is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue.
Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects, invalid exploratory analyses, and
flagrant conflicts of interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends of
dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards darkness" Horton R.
Offline: What is medicine's 5 sigma? www.thelancet.com.
The first of these two commentaries on clinical research publications appeared in 2009, the
second in April of this year. These statements are being taken seriously, coming as they do
from the experiences of editors of two of the world's most prestigious medical journals.
The first article showed how the relationships between pharmaceutical companies and
academic physicians at prestigious universities impacted certain drug-related publications
and the marketing of prescription drugs. Potential conflicts of interest seemed to abound:
millions of dollars in consulting and speaking fees to physicians who promoted specific
drugs, public research dollars being used by a researcher to test a drug owned by a company
in which the researcher held millions of dollars in shares, failure of university
researchers to disclose income from drug companies, company subsidies to physician
continuing education, publishing practice guidelines involving drugs in which the authors
have a financial interest, using influential physicians to promote drugs for unapproved
uses, bias in favor of a product coming from failure to publish negative results and
repeated publication of positive results in different forms. The author, Marcia Angell,
cited the case of a drug giant that had to agree to settle charges that it deliberately
withheld evidence that its top-selling anti-depressant was ineffective and could be harmful
to certain age groups. ...
Richard Horton's statement was part of his comments on a recent symposium on reliability
and reproducibility of research in the biomedical sciences and addresses a broader area of
concern. Some of the problems he identified are seen in the veterinary literature. They
include inadequate number of subjects in the study, poor study design, and potential
conflicts of interest. He notes that the quest for journal impact factor is fuelling
competition for publication in a few high reputation journals. He warns that "our love of
'significance' pollutes the literature with many a statistical fairy-tale" ...
Research is not created equal. There is good research (some, not so much) and there is
bad research (bundles of it), mostly funded by vested interests, who where necessary direct
the desired results. In general, research from China and Russia arguably tends to be higher
quality and more reliable because those countries place the emphasis on health for society,
not on profits for the corporations.
@Flatulus @16 "sources"
Christian Drosten, chief virologist Charité Berlin in his podcast no 31. Available
with transcript here.
Posted by: b | May 18 2020 16:42 utc | 32
B, have you looked into the Big Pharma vested interests of Drosten yet? I suggest you do
so.
Few things can be more annoying than answering the phone while you're in the middle of
something -- and then being greeted by a recording. If you receive a robocall trying to sell you something
(and you haven't given the caller your written permission), it's an illegal call. You should hang
up. Then, file a complaint with the
FTC and the National Do Not Call
Registry.
From phony positive Covid-19 test results to deceptive offers of financial relief, robocalls
have proliferated amid the pandemic, separating Americans from millions of precious dollars at
a time when few can afford to lose money.
One particularly nasty scam sees the target receive a text or phone call warning them
they've been exposed to the virus, tricking them into providing personal information while in a
state of panic. Another cruel variant dangles the possibility of virus-related financial relief
if they just give up their bank account details or wire the scammer a small " fee "
– a tempting prospect at a time when half of American workers are unlikely to see a
paycheck this month and upwards of 36 million have filed for unemployment since the pandemic
began. Phony treatments – in which the target orders a miracle cure, only to never
receive it – comprise some 22 percent of coronavirus-related robocalls, making them the
most common pandemic scam.
Even those who haven't been personally scammed by a robocaller
have experienced stress because of them, Provision found; 70 percent of millennials are
concerned a parent or grandparent will be preyed upon by the automated scammers, who frequently
impersonate government authorities like the Social Security Administration or the Internal
Revenue Service in order to con their targets out of bank account information or other personal
data. In fact, nearly two in five robocalls (39 percent) claim to be the SSA, with 38 percent
impersonating the IRS and 33 percent pretending to be debt collectors.
The Covid-19 scams are apparently quite effective, robbing Americans of over $13.4 million
of their hard-earned cash in the first three months of 2020 alone, according to the Federal
Trade Commission. That number doesn't include scams that haven't been discovered by their
victims, or those that go unreported to the FTC – meaning the real figure is likely much
higher.
Beware of fake contact tracers, N.J. officials warn.
New Jersey officials warned residents on Wednesday to be wary of fraudsters identifying
themselves as contact tracers in order to obtain financial information.
In recent weeks, as health departments have hired
legitimate tracers to track the spread of the coronavirus, fake tracers have been sending
people text messages looking for insurance information and bank account and social security
numbers, said Judith Persichilli, the state health commissioner.
Real contact tracers do not ask for such things, the state said.
A legitimate tracer will call, identify themselves as part of a local health department, and
explain to the person on the phone that they may have come into contact with someone who tested
positive for the virus.
Scams around the virus, unemployment benefits and stimulus checks have proliferated
nationwide , the authorities say.
Gov. Philip D. Murphy said "there is a special place in hell" for people who would scam
others during the pandemic.
Mr. Murphy also reported the state's daily virus fatalities: 168, bringing the overall death
toll to 10,747.
In what appears to be yet another strike against public officials
like LA County's Barbara Ferrer - that is, Democrats and others who insist that lockdowns
should continue perhaps until a vaccine has been discovered and that police should punish
anyone who dares violate these orders - a study from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention has found that patients who test positive for COVID-19 after recovering from the
illness appear to be shedding dead copies of the virus. That would suggest that these patients
are not infectious, the scientists said, which helped dispel fears that some patients can
remain infectious for months after being infected. While the study doesn't answer every
question about the virus's longevity -
such as patients who almost appear to have developed a "chronic" form of the illness because
their symptoms have persisted for so long.
But still, the finding was greeted as a major relief, and, if anything, should encourage
economies to reopen more quickly, as a potential trigger for reinfection that had panicked some
experts appears to be a non-issue.
The research also undermines the reliability of 'antibody' tests like the ones NY Gov Andrew
Cuomo insisted would be 'critical' for NY's reopening.
The results mean health authorities in South Korea will no longer consider people
infectious after recovering from the illness. Research last month showed that so-called PCR
tests for the coronavirus's nucleic acid can't distinguish between dead and viable virus
particles, potentially giving the wrong impression that someone who tests positive for the
virus remains infectious.
The research may also aid in the debate over antibody tests, which look for markers in the
blood that indicate exposure to the novel coronavirus. Experts believe antibodies probably
convey some level of protection against the virus, but they don't have any solid proof yet.
Nor do they know how long any immunity may last.
A recent study in Singapore showed that recovered patients from severe acute respiratory
syndrome, or SARS, are found to have "significant levels of neutralizing antibodies" nine to
17 years after initial infection, according to researchers including Danielle E. Anderson of
Duke-NUS Medical School.
Other scientists have found higher levels of IgM, an antibody that appears in response to
exposure to an antigen, in children, according to an article published on medRxiv. That
suggests younger populations have the potential to produce a more potent defense against
Covid-19. The study has not been certified by peer review.
Bloomberg offers a succinct review of some of the research into the infectious qualities of
the virus, and the efficacy of antibodies in keeping patients safe from reinfection. As BBG
shows, studies of SARS, which is related to the virus that causes COVID-19, suggest that
antibodies keep patients safe for years, undermining warnings about a possible second wave, or
worries that the virus might become endemic, which were recently raised by the WHO.
The research may also aid in the debate over antibody tests, which look for markers in the
blood that indicate exposure to the novel coronavirus. Experts believe antibodies probably
convey some level of protection against the virus, but they don't have any solid proof
yet.
Nor do they know how long any immunity may last.
A recent study in Singapore showed that recovered patients from severe acute respiratory
syndrome, or SARS, are found to have "significant levels of neutralizing antibodies" nine to
17 years after initial infection, according to researchers including Danielle E. Anderson of
Duke-NUS Medical School.
Other scientists have found higher levels of IgM, an antibody that appears in response to
exposure to an antigen, in children, according to an article published on medRxiv. That
suggests younger populations have the potential to produce a more potent defense against
Covid-19. The study has not been certified by peer review.
The study's findings are apparently convincing enough for South Korean health authorities to
no longer require patients to be re-tested after they've recovered from COVID-19 and all
symptoms have subsided.
As a result of the findings in the South Korea study, authorities said that under revised
protocols, people should no longer be required to test negative for the virus before
returning to work or school after they have recovered from their illness and completed their
period of isolation.
"Under the new protocols, no additional tests are required for cases that have been
discharged from isolation," the Korean CDC said in a report. The agency said it will now
refer to "re-positive" cases as "PCR re-detected after discharge from isolation."
Some coronavirus patients have tested positive again for the virus up to 82 days after
becoming infected. Almost all of the cases for which blood tests were taken had antibodies
against the virus.
If nothing else, this study is just the latest reminder of how much we don't know about the
virus.
@Al t from wood like cherry and walnut Unlike the medical masks with the 3 flapping
edges, dust doesn't come in through the seal.
The medical masks are 6 inch long rectangles that are open at the bottom and 2 sides.
According to the 2 Drs I saw , they're useless for preventing germs and viruses coming
in.
The 3m 8210 PLUS n95 masks work to keep the finest softest dust out if you think you need
a mask. And you can use them for days if you're not sanding and using dangerous
materials.
The only reason I looked at was after I used a really strong toxic paint stripper all day
long. The stripper was orange. I saw that the outside of the mask was orange from the fumes.
But the inside was still white, no orange. So that mask prevented the fumes going through to
my nose and mouth.
"A new study published in the European Heart Journal on Monday has provided scientific
evidence that men have higher concentrations of ACE2 in their blood than women. ACE2, which
is found in organs such as the heart, kidney, intestines and others, is the receptor required
for cellular entry of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
While the ACE2 receptor is normally helpful to the human body, as it stabilizes one's
blood pressure and regulates blood vessel dilation, it is also the target of SARS-CoV-2's
spike protein. Once the spike protein has attached itself to the receptor, the novel
coronavirus is able to invade the human cell and infect an individual.
"When we found that one of the strongest biomarkers, ACE2, was much higher in men than in
women, I realised that this had the potential to explain why men were more likely to die from
COVID-19 than women," said Iziah Sama, a doctor at University Medical Center (UMC) Groningen
who co-led the study.
Findings from the recent study further advanced scientists' presumption that the ACE2 is a
key component to how COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus,
creeps to the lungs.
"ACE2 is a receptor on the surface of cells. It binds to the coronavirus and allows it to
enter and infect healthy cells after it has been modified by another protein on the surface
of the cell, called TMPRSS2," explained Dr. Adriaan Voors, a professor of cardiology at UMC
Groningen who led the study. "High levels of ACE2 are present in the lungs and, therefore, it
is thought to play a crucial role in the progression of lung disorders related to
COVID-19."
The study, which relied on blood samples from several thousand participants, also found
that heart failure patients prescribed drugs that target the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone
system, like angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers
(ARBs), did not have higher concentrations of ACE2 in their blood.
"ACE inhibitors and ARBs are widely prescribed to patients with congestive heart failure,
diabetes or kidney disease," Reuters noted.
"Our findings do not support the discontinuation of these drugs in COVID-19 patients as
has been suggested by earlier reports," explained Voors."
@KAFrom April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases
(range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469
deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the H1N1pdm09 virus
This is interesting.
The population of the USA in 2010 was 308 million. The number of infected was 60.8
million. That suggests that herd immunity was reached when 19.7% of the population was
infected.
That magical number of 20% has been repeated by me in a number of comments here. I don't
claim to have originated it.
@Anon Speaking of antibiotics, there are several papers on pubmed suggesting the use of
doxycycline to treat COVID-19 (and the ARB drug telmisartan is apparently another
off-the-shelf treatment possibility).
In silico modeling shows that doxycycline might inhibit SARS-CoV-2 PLpro and 3CLpro; plus
it has an anti-inflammatory effect. Doxy is highly bioavailable and crosses the blood brain
barrier.
The BMJ article in top post refers to mild and moderate cases. All cases are hospitalized
cases. What exactly does it mean to hospitalize a mild case? Is that standard practice for
covid? The article has some discussion on this point but it basically makes no sense.
Patients excluded from study does not begin to include all those who would ordinarily be
contraindicated for HCQ. Then dosages of 1200mg per day to start are flat twice what is
recommended by Raoult. After 3 days dosage cut to 800mg, which is still high. Dosage
continued for two to three weeks where others would end after ten days.
The Economist article from top post is so badly in need of basic copy editing it just
makes no sense at all. Perhaps the publication has given up on editing since that interferes
with the constant right wing propaganda onslaught. Currently owned by Rothschilds.
I could give some notes here on actual clinical practice as given to me by those treating
patients but old friends and HIPPAA have a lot of conflicts. Suffice it to say that politics
is altering clinical practice. Which reminds of the article above about Utah. Utah is a
theocracy. A theocracy of cranks and cultists. No, that does not mix with science.
If this comment is not yet suitable for deletion some notes on the pandemic as seen from
Cook County (Chicago). The current case count is up to 62,000, deaths nearing 3000. There is
no panic in the streets. A heavy blanket of fear uncertainty and doubt covers the city, there
is no panic. More than 1% of the population is supposedly positive but everyone is asking
each other "Do you know anyone who is sick? Do you know anyone positive?" And most do not
know a soul who is sick. Fatalities I know of are in NYC. Most lack even that sort of
connection. One friend lives in zip 60639 where 2-1/2% of residents are positive and he
hasn't heard a thing from neighbors. Supposedly there is a cluster of six deaths centered
right around his house (neighborhood of single-family residences) and no one is talking about
it
Finally I do personally know a case. Our mailman had it. Postal employees can be tested,
most of us still can't. He was sick ten days. First retest at two weeks showed positive even
though he felt fine.Second retest at three weeks was negative, immediately allowed to return
to work. Wife and daughter also got sick, also recovered easily. No tests available for them
so no stats. No medical treatment but stay home and rest. On his own he took high doses of
Vitamin C plus some zinc, but he does that for any cold or flu. After discussing symptoms
with him am fairly certain that my wife and I had it back in January but will never know for
sure. An antibody test would be interesting and even helpful at this point, no expectation
one will ever be offered.
What if the virus causing COVID-19 is first doing great injury to hemoglobin which then
allows bacteriological infections to do their work? People are showing hypoxia, not all, just
what become the worst cases. Those factors are part of an hypothesis developed by Dr. Zach
Bush, a physician specializing in internal medicine, endocrinology and hospice care, that
gets presented during this 1 hour 20 minute
interview that covers more than just the COVID-19 issue. When finished, you'll have a
completely different appreciation for the term Environmental Science.
Doxycycline is an
anti-malarial drug that was patented in 1957, became commercial in 1967 and is now a generic
drug. Ivermectin ,
used to treat parasitic infestations, is available in the US as a generic prescription drug.
Both drugs do have side effects. It will be interesting to see if either drug gets much
attention in the global press beyond the medical literature if the Bangladeshi doctors
continue to have success in treating their patients.
President Trump said Wednesday the coronavirus
crisis is worse than the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and Americans won't allow it to go on any
longer.
"I don't think people will stand for it," Mr. Trump told reporters in the Oval
Office. "The country won't stand for it. It's not sustainable."
He said the pandemic "is worse than Pearl Harbor."
...Asked about soaring unemployment being a potential liability for him in an election year,
the president replied, "Nobody's blaming me for that. I built the greatest economy and I'm
going to rebuild it again. This was an artificially induced unemployment."
"... SCAN is backed by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the University of Washington Medicine. The testing program was sending free test kits to participants' homes in the Seattle Metropolitan Area, with the goal of testing people in the region to get a sense of how the virus was spreading through the community. ..."
About a month after Bill Gates
criticized President Trump's decision to suspend funding to the World Health Organization
(WHO), the federal government has just halted a Seattle-based COVID-19 testing program backed
by Gates.
What are the odds, right?
"Please discontinue patient testing and return of diagnostic results to patients until
proper authorization is obtained," the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) wrote in a memo,
addressed to the Seattle Coronavirus Assessment Network (SCAN), according to The
New York Times .
SCAN posted an update on its website on
Thursday (May 14) describing how the FDA had asked it to "pause" testing while it receives
further guidance on new procedures for its COVID-19 test kits that collect samples at home.
The FDA "recently clarified its guidance for home-based, self-collected samples to test for
COVID-19. We have been notified that a separate federal emergency use authorization (EUA) is
required to return results for self-collected tests," the post read.
"The FDA has not raised any concerns regarding the safety and accuracy of SCAN's test, but
we have been asked to pause testing until we receive that additional authorization."
An FDA spokesperson told The Times, the home collection test kits raised some concerns about
"safety and accuracy that required the agency's review."
The issue in the Seattle case appears to be that the test results are being used not only
by researchers for surveillance of the virus in the community but that the results are also
being returned to patients to inform them.
The two kinds of testing — surveillance and diagnostic — fall under different
F.D.A. standards. In a pure surveillance study, the researchers may keep the results just for
themselves. But coronavirus testing has largely revolved around getting results returned to
doctors who can share the results with patients.
"We had previously understood that SCAN was being conducted as a surveillance study," the
spokesperson said.
SCAN is backed by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the University of Washington
Medicine. The testing program was sending free test kits to participants' homes in the Seattle
Metropolitan Area, with the goal of testing people in the region to get a sense of how the
virus was spreading through the community.
As there have been some comments relating to the development of a vaccine against the virus,
I made a search this morning relating to the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation's record in
funding such developments. I tried to stay away from the articles that seemed to be
inflammatory but did find this article dated today at indianexpress.com: "Can't penalise US
NGO for violating drug trial norms" related to a previous drug trial involvement of the
foundation. Here are the opening paragraphs:
The NDA government Friday told the Supreme Court that no specific penalties could be
imposed on the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation-funded Programme for Appropriate
Technology in Health (PATH) for violating norms in conducting the vaccination trials on
tribal girls in Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat.
Pointing out that the current legal regime had no provision of penalties, the Ministry
of Health and Family Welfare has expressed its inability to proceed against the NGO PATH
despite a parliamentary panel recommending strict actions.
The article would seem to advise caution in urging such trials on the part of the US
government with respect to a vaccine for the covid virus, as they also have taken place in
other countries, with unforseen complications for some of the participants. It is often the
case that strong medicinal remedies are available to poor people on a trial basis. These days
I'm remembering the John Le Carre novel, "The Constant Gardener". If my library were open I'd
be rereading it.
The old saying 'haste makes waste' needs to be kept in mind.
> I made a search this morning relating to the Bill and Melinda Gates
>Posted by: juliania | May 16 2020 13:41 utc | 88
Thank you for this. I've been wondering about the noise swirling around Gates and vaccine
shenanigans and how much of it is true. I would not be surprised to learn that he really did
harm many people with his PATH project.
It's well understood in the computer industry that Gates was an abusive bully to his
employees while wrecking every company he crossed paths with, whether they were the
competition or a partner. No reason to think it would be different with his new projects.
I'll take my chances with the evil virus before I'll take a dose of a Gates' vaccine.
Any drugs out of patent will be discredited by big pharma lobbyists. It seems a number of
drugs do have an impact on the covid-19 set of symptoms.
At one point in time, I was diagnosed with 'chronic fatigue syndrome'. It is a bullshit
diagnosis, basically the scrap heap for undiagnosed disease. I looked up research on the
subject at the the time. There was a couple of interesting contrasts.
One research project simply took in a mob that had been diagnosed with chronic fatigue
syndrome, and of course found nothing in various trials.
Another project took in a cohort with exactly the same symptoms, and found that a pathogen
was indeed causing their problems.
A number of drugs on anecdotal evidence (and perhaps the observations of Chinese doctors
unencombered by lobbyists are anecdotal) do help certain patients.
Each drug may not be a cure all for all people with COVID-19, but it seems these do help
various patients depending on their symptoms and the way the virus is attacking them.
With that in mind, I would be keeping an eye on China rather than US big pharma.
Big pharma may well come up with a you beaut cure all, but in the mean time I would be
looking at doctors unencombered by big pharma for something that will help.
WaPo: Drug promoted by Trump as coronavirus 'game changer' increasingly linked to
deaths
Posted by: b | May 16 2020 9:39 utc | 61
b,
do you have any conception of the lobbying methods used by Big Pharma?
Do you have any conception of the financial clout they have available for protecting their
interests?
Do you have any conceptions of the influence they have, of the revolving doors between Big
Pharma, pharmaceutical regulatory bodies, medical schools and every single level of the
medical industry?
Do you have any conception of the way pharmaceutical registration works, and of the corrupt
and fraudulent practices used to obtain authorisation for drugs?
It is one gigantic spaghetti pot of corruption and deception. Boeing/FAA is miniscule and
almost angelic by comparison (and far less deadly also).
Coincidentally I have direct first-hand experience of both sides of the activities of
Big Pharma concerning one specific highly effective cancer drug that the world's
biggest Pharma corporations have tried for the last 40 years to eradicate (finally almost
successful by 2014, unfortunately). I have direct first-hand experience of the highest praise
they share amongst their own top elites of the efficacy of that competitor's medicine against
all known types of cancer. I also have close 2nd hand inside knowledge of their efforts to
purchase the patents for that same medicine for vast sums of money. I also personally know
the proprietor and developer of that same medicine, and have witnessed and experienced
first hand some of the fraudulent and criminal methods Big Pharma have used non-stop for 40
years to try to force my friend out of business, together with the lies and deception they
have used publicly falsely alleging its "danger" and "inefficacy", together even with using
police to illegally force parents to stop using it for their seriously ill children who had
already dramatically benefited from its use, and forcing doctors to stop using it for
treatment. I also have extensive 2nd hand knowledge of their activities to that effect, and
have good reason to believe they are true. I have also used that medicine myself, to great
effect, and closely know a medical practice which has used it with considerable medical
success, and of the coercion they also experienced not to use it.
The way the Western medical establishment has handled the question of the use of
chloroquine and closely related drugs for Covid-19 is in every single respect and at every
level 100% typical of Big Pharma disinformation projects .
The very fact that the US medical establishment approved use of hydroxychloroquine under
specific conditions that ensure it is used exclusively at a very late stage after the virus
has ceased to replicate guarantees that all or almost all major Western hydroxychloroquine
trials will be negative - because it is a specific and known requirement of
hydroxychloroquine therapy that the therapy is conducted early whilst the virus is stil
replicating - later it is known to be useless. The approval of its use under such
conditions is the specific result of Big Pharma influence . That is how they operate all
the time.
Big Pharma is no more honest about either the safety or the efficacity of its products
than are the White Helmets about their activities in Syria. Many of the most dangerous drugs
sold by the biggest companies are approved on the basis of very small, improperly balanced
trials, sometimes fraudulently conducted. Trials which give the wrong result are routinely
hidden. Research on toxicity and dangerous side-effects are routinely inadequate, frequently
fraudulent or knowingly misleading, and legal requirements for drug authorisations are
frequently waived on the basis of influence campaigns. This is especially so for new
chemotherapy drugs, which are intrinsically highly toxic and are normally used at very close
to the fatal dose. There is no level playing field at all, quite the contrary.
Big Pharma do not profit from cures - they profit from selling very expensive drugs, and
they are far more ruthless than the White Helmets in destroying any potential threat to their
profits. There is no more effective threat to the World-View of Big Pharma - as I know from
first hand experience - than effective cures, especially where they are cheap and
unpatentable, or the patents are owned outside the cabal. Any such cure must be destroyed at
all costs.
Several of the Big Pharma companies in recent years have been given multi-billion dollar
fines for the fraud and subversion they have utilised in obtaining authorisation for drugs
which are dangerous to the patient, and for their marketing of drugs known to be
dangerous.
The patent for chloroquine and its derivatives has expired. It has been widely used for
many years, its hazards and limitations are thoroughly documented, and it is in this respect
- under proper supervision with respect to its known hazards and limitations and qualified by
them - incomparably safer than any new and barely tested pharmaceutical drug or vaccine such
as Remdesivir. It is cheaply produced around the world. Therefore, no full-scale
well-controlled randomised clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine treatment for Covid-19 will
ever be conducted in a major Western country. Big Pharma will ensure that.
One does have to wonder whether it is simply a matter that the difficulty in the US
concerning early diagnosis is the real problem that makes use of the drug impractical here.
Perhaps we just don't have the resources, teams of testers and physicians and nurses, for the
accuracy and careful monitoring of patients in early stage infection required when using this
drug.
Posted by: juliania | May 16 2020 15:17 utc | 103
I'm afraid it's not anything to do with early diagnosis, it is only about profit. As Blue
Dotterel said, it is about profit, not curing patients. For Big Pharma the very last thing
they want is for the patient to be cured - a dead patient is far more profitable. No wonder
Gilead holds the more promising GS-441524 off the market, because they can make more profit
from a more expensive useless drug that will be in patent for far longer.
Big Pharma expects to make many trillions of dollars profit per year on Covid-19, as they
do on cancer. The more Covid cases, the more profits. The less effective the efforts to
reduce infections, the more profits. The less availability of PPE, the more profits. The more
chaotic and irrational the government policies, the more profit. Big Pharma profits at every
step.
They will stop at nothing to block proper trials of hydroxychloroquine - including
bribery, coercion, and sabotage, not just massive disinformation. They will spend billions
just to block
proper trials, using myriad different methods of subterfuge and subversion. That is just
small change compared to the profits they want and expect.
The entire philosophy of Western medicine is a dying patient - it is corrupt, it is
dishonest, its entire foundations are fraudulent. There is an urgent need for a whole new
paradigm for medicine that is based on maximising the health of society, not on maximising
profit.
There is a story I heard on television several decades ago - I think it was true, but I am
not certain - about an old Chinese tradition. Villagers would pay a regular monthly fee to
the doctor, as long as they stay healthy. As soon as they fall sick they stop paying, and the
doctor has to cure them (without charge). Only when they get better will they resume the
normal regular payments. Think about it, what is the best interest of the doctor towards his
patient? He has an investment in their good health. Now compare the Western system. What
interest does the doctor have in the patient's health? If the patient is sick for 4 times as
long and then dies, is the doctor richer or poorer? If the doctor gives drugs with side
effects, which need more drugs against the side effects, will he be richer or poorer? If
there are two drugs available, one cheap, one expensive, which one does the doctor
prefer?
Think about it Juliana, the last time you went to a hospital, how much did it cost? How
many useless medicines did the doctor give you, versus how many basic essential
medicines?
Western medicine is a big scam. It is a business. The second biggest business in the world
after war.
That is why I reject Western medicine. For 20 years I have used only non-Western
medicine.
Clinical trials, academic research and scientific analysis indicate that the danger of the
Trump-backed drug is a significantly increased risk of death for certain patients. Evidence
showing the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine in treating covid-19 has been scant. Those
two developments pushed the Food and Drug Administration to warn against the use of
hydroxychloroquine outside of a hospital setting last month, just weeks after it approved
an emergency use authorization for the drug.
Alarmed by a growing cache of data linking the anti-malaria drug to serious cardiac
problems, some drug safety experts are now calling for even more forceful action by the
government to discourage its use. Several have called for the FDA to revoke its emergency
use authorization, given hydroxychloroquine's documented risks.
"They should say, 'We know there are harms, and until we know the benefits, let's hold
off,' " said Joseph Ross, a professor of medicine and public health at Yale University, who
added that the original authorization may have been warranted but new evidence has emerged
about the drug's risks.
"I'm surprised it hasn't been revoked yet," said Luciana Borio, who served as director
for medical and biodefense preparedness of the National Security Council and was acting
chief scientist at the FDA.
...
Yogen Kanthi, assistant professor in the division of cardiovascular medicine at the
University of Michigan, said that it has been clear that the combination of
hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin -- used to treat bacterial infections -- could lead to
cardiac arrhythmias, which cause the heart to beat irregularly or too fast or slow. Many
patients hospitalized for covid-19 had underlying cardiovascular disease that put them at
higher risk for arrhythmias, "so it shouldn't be surprising we saw an increase in death,"
he said.
AD
"The question has been answered that if you have the infection and it's significant
enough to be in the hospital, the drug doesn't seem to do anything for you," he said. "It
may be the horse is out of the barn."
Many hospitals have stopped using the drug outside of clinical trials.
"We no longer are keeping large quantities and have returned most of it," said Nishaminy
Kasbekar, director of pharmacy for the Penn Presbyterian Medical Center in Philadelphia. "I
think they should revoke the EUA because clearly based on the data it is no longer
considered a treatment for covid."
...
A study of Veterans Affairs patients hospitalized with the coronavirus found no benefit and
higher death rates among those taking hydroxychloroquine, researchers said last month.
More than 27 percent of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine died, and 22 percent of
those treated with the combination therapy died, compared with an 11.4 percent death rate
in those not treated with the drugs, the study said.
This is what I thought, you've been damaged by Trump Derangent Syndrome (TDS), so you
insult with a childish phrase like "Trump's wonder medicine." You actually erased a medical
doctor's respectful and evidence-laden disagreement with your 'line'. In any case, I'm not
participating in the childish Trump/antiTrump,
pro-hydroxychloroquine/anti-hydroxychloroquine, pro-lockdown/anti-lockdown discourse. The
evidence is split on all of these issues. You cite your evidence, those who disagree with you
cite theirs. Believe it or not, neither side in the disagreement are demons.
I don't have a strong opinion on Hydroxychloroquine, but it's just that it had been widely
and uncontroversially used in China from early on in the fight against Covid-19. Then, after
Trump mentioned it positively, it became controversial. A classic TDS timeline doesn't mean
anything factually, but it naturally raises a rational person's skepticism about the
extremely negative claims suddenly appearing in places like the Washington Post and other
classic TDS places. I'm not expert enough to weigh the evidence, and neither are you, b, but
even a brief internet search shows China-produced scientific studies of Hydroxychloroquine
showing positive results:
"But for TTCR, the body temperature recovery time and the cough remission time were
significantly shortened in the HCQ treatment group. Besides, a larger proportion of patients
with improved pneumonia in the HCQ treatment group (80.6%, 25 of 31) compared with the
control group (54.8%, 17 of 31)."
"The mortality rate in the HCQ group stood at 18.8 percent against 43.5 percent in the
non-HCQ group, the study noted.
"'Hydroxychloroquine treatment is significantly associated with a decreased mortality in
critically-ill Covid-19 patients,' the researchers wrote. ...
"The Chinese researchers, however, also suggest that despite their findings, the
randomized double-blind-control study was needed to provide stronger evidence."
So there is evidence on both sides, as contributors more expert than you or me have told
you repeatedly. Non-experts don't know who's right, or if this disagreement will reach some
nuanced "you're both partly right" conclusion. I will humbly continue to be open to both
sides of the argument. Get well soon from TDS, b.
WaPo: Drug promoted by Trump as coronavirus 'game changer' increasingly linked to
deaths
Posted by: b | May 16 2020 9:39 utc | 61
b,
do you have any conception of the lobbying methods used by Big Pharma?
Do you have any conception of the financial clout they have available for protecting their
interests?
Do you have any conceptions of the influence they have, of the revolving doors between Big
Pharma, pharmaceutical regulatory bodies, medical schools and every single level of the
medical industry?
Do you have any conception of the way pharmaceutical registration works, and of the corrupt
and fraudulent practices used to obtain authorisation for drugs?
It is one gigantic spaghetti pot of corruption and deception. Boeing/FAA is miniscule and
almost angelic by comparison (and far less deadly also).
Coincidentally I have direct first-hand experience of both sides of the activities of
Big Pharma concerning one specific highly effective cancer drug that the world's
biggest Pharma corporations have tried for the last 40 years to eradicate (finally almost
successful by 2014, unfortunately). I have direct first-hand experience of the highest praise
they share amongst their own top elites of the efficacy of that competitor's medicine against
all known types of cancer. I also have close 2nd hand inside knowledge of their efforts to
purchase the patents for that same medicine for vast sums of money. I also personally know
the proprietor and developer of that same medicine, and have witnessed and experienced
first hand some of the fraudulent and criminal methods Big Pharma have used non-stop for 40
years to try to force my friend out of business, together with the lies and deception they
have used publicly falsely alleging its "danger" and "inefficacy", together even with using
police to illegally force parents to stop using it for their seriously ill children who had
already dramatically benefited from its use, and forcing doctors to stop using it for
treatment. I also have extensive 2nd hand knowledge of their activities to that effect, and
have good reason to believe they are true. I have also used that medicine myself, to great
effect, and closely know a medical practice which has used it with considerable medical
success, and of the coercion they also experienced not to use it.
The way the Western medical establishment has handled the question of the use of
chloroquine and closely related drugs for Covid-19 is in every single respect and at every
level 100% typical of Big Pharma disinformation projects .
The very fact that the US medical establishment approved use of hydroxychloroquine under
specific conditions that ensure it is used exclusively at a very late stage after the virus
has ceased to replicate guarantees that all or almost all major Western hydroxychloroquine
trials will be negative - because it is a specific and known requirement of
hydroxychloroquine therapy that the therapy is conducted early whilst the virus is stil
replicating - later it is known to be useless. The approval of its use under such
conditions is the specific result of Big Pharma influence . That is how they operate all
the time.
Big Pharma is no more honest about either the safety or the efficacity of its products
than are the White Helmets about their activities in Syria. Many of the most dangerous drugs
sold by the biggest companies are approved on the basis of very small, improperly balanced
trials, sometimes fraudulently conducted. Trials which give the wrong result are routinely
hidden. Research on toxicity and dangerous side-effects are routinely inadequate, frequently
fraudulent or knowingly misleading, and legal requirements for drug authorisations are
frequently waived on the basis of influence campaigns. This is especially so for new
chemotherapy drugs, which are intrinsically highly toxic and are normally used at very close
to the fatal dose. There is no level playing field at all, quite the contrary.
Big Pharma do not profit from cures - they profit from selling very expensive drugs, and
they are far more ruthless than the White Helmets in destroying any potential threat to their
profits. There is no more effective threat to the World-View of Big Pharma - as I know from
first hand experience - than effective cures, especially where they are cheap and
unpatentable, or the patents are owned outside the cabal. Any such cure must be destroyed at
all costs.
Several of the Big Pharma companies in recent years have been given multi-billion dollar
fines for the fraud and subversion they have utilised in obtaining authorisation for drugs
which are dangerous to the patient, and for their marketing of drugs known to be
dangerous.
The patent for chloroquine and its derivatives has expired. It has been widely used for
many years, its hazards and limitations are thoroughly documented, and it is in this respect
- under proper supervision with respect to its known hazards and limitations and qualified by
them - incomparably safer than any new and barely tested pharmaceutical drug or vaccine such
as Remdesivir. It is cheaply produced around the world. Therefore, no full-scale
well-controlled randomised clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine treatment for Covid-19 will
ever be conducted in a major Western country. Big Pharma will ensure that.
Turkey uses Chloroquine as well
"Koca explained that unlike the other countries, in Turkey doctors do not advise people with
symptoms such as fever, store throat and coughing to take antipyretics and stay at home, but
invite them to hospital and immediately start treatment by administering chloroquine to the
people in suspicious cases without waiting for the results from the test results.
Turkey uses Chloroquine as well
"Koca explained that unlike the other countries, in Turkey doctors do not advise people with
symptoms such as fever, store throat and coughing to take antipyretics and stay at home, but
invite them to hospital and immediately start treatment by administering chloroquine to the
people in suspicious cases without waiting for the results from the test results.
...
The very fact that the US medical establishment approved use of hydroxychloroquine under
specific conditions that ensure it is used exclusively at a very late stage after the virus
has ceased to replicate guarantees that all or almost all major Western hydroxychloroquine
trials will be negative-
...
Posted by: BM | May 16 2020 13:59 utc | 91
I'm calling bullshit on that claim.
Whoever made it is an ignoramus with no knowledge, or understanding, of what Clinical Trials
involve, how many variables have to be tested, nor why it takes so long for such trials to
reach a 'safe' set of recommendations. If ever...
Unfortunately the poster doesn't state what is wrong with the claim. Assertions that
another poster is ignorant are not relevant. Neither are appeals to authority.
One does have to wonder whether it is simply a matter that the difficulty in the US
concerning early diagnosis is the real problem that makes use of the drug impractical here.
Perhaps we just don't have the resources, teams of testers and physicians and nurses, for the
accuracy and careful monitoring of patients in early stage infection required when using this
drug.
Posted by: juliania | May 16 2020 15:17 utc | 103
I'm afraid it's not anything to do with early diagnosis, it is only about profit. As Blue
Dotterel said, it is about profit, not curing patients. For Big Pharma the very last thing
they want is for the patient to be cured - a dead patient is far more profitable. No wonder
Gilead holds the more promising GS-441524 off the market, because they can make more profit
from a more expensive useless drug that will be in patent for far longer.
Big Pharma expects to make many trillions of dollars profit per year on Covid-19, as they
do on cancer. The more Covid cases, the more profits. The less effective the efforts to
reduce infections, the more profits. The less availability of PPE, the more profits. The more
chaotic and irrational the government policies, the more profit. Big Pharma profits at every
step.
They will stop at nothing to block proper trials of hydroxychloroquine - including
bribery, coercion, and sabotage, not just massive disinformation. They will spend billions
just to block
proper trials, using myriad different methods of subterfuge and subversion. That is just
small change compared to the profits they want and expect.
The entire philosophy of Western medicine is a dying patient - it is corrupt, it is
dishonest, its entire foundations are fraudulent. There is an urgent need for a whole new
paradigm for medicine that is based on maximising the health of society, not on maximising
profit.
There is a story I heard on television several decades ago - I think it was true, but I am
not certain - about an old Chinese tradition. Villagers would pay a regular monthly fee to
the doctor, as long as they stay healthy. As soon as they fall sick they stop paying, and the
doctor has to cure them (without charge). Only when they get better will they resume the
normal regular payments. Think about it, what is the best interest of the doctor towards his
patient? He has an investment in their good health. Now compare the Western system. What
interest does the doctor have in the patient's health? If the patient is sick for 4 times as
long and then dies, is the doctor richer or poorer? If the doctor gives drugs with side
effects, which need more drugs against the side effects, will he be richer or poorer? If
there are two drugs available, one cheap, one expensive, which one does the doctor
prefer?
Think about it Juliana, the last time you went to a hospital, how much did it cost? How
many useless medicines did the doctor give you, versus how many basic essential
medicines?
Western medicine is a big scam. It is a business. The second biggest business in the world
after war.
That is why I reject Western medicine. For 20 years I have used only non-Western
medicine.
Deep thanks for the comment on Remdesivir. I've seen this appraisal in the medical community
but not in any public commentary. It was developed to address Ebola and failed miserably.
Tagged "a drug looking for a disease."
Cats can get infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and do replicate it strongly in their
respiratory system. But the cats do not get sick and show no symptoms. During the study
three infected cats were each put into the same cage as a not-infected cat. They transmitted
the disease to the previously non-infected ones. The researchers tested if the viruses the
cats produce are still able to grow on human tissues. Unfortunately they are.
This means that a cat which went out of the house and met a cat who's owner has Covid-19
might come back home and infect its own human servant. Household cats may also play a role in
the infection chain between household members. Any cat owner who goes into lockdown or is
quarantined at home must also quarantine the cat. So far COVID lives in cats, Siberian
tigers, bats, pangolins, raccoon dogs, ferrets. Only commonality here is they are all
mammals. There have been a couple reports that it lives in dogs as well. If conclusions can
be drawn from this it would seem to be a simple and indiscriminate virus. And we must mask
our dogs, mask our cats, make them wear diapers if they go outside.
The novel coronavirus can survive in high temperatures, researchers said, casting doubt on
suggestions that the threat will subside in the summer.
Researchers from the University of Aix-Marseille in France, led by Remi Charrel and Boris
Pastorino, found that the virus survived in 140-degree Fahrenheit temperatures typically used
to disinfect research labs,
The Jerusalem Post reported .
It took 15 minutes of exposure to 197.6-degree temperatures to kill the virus, the newspaper
noted, adding that the study had yet to be peer-reviewed.
Researchers did say the lower temperature should be sufficient to deactivate the virus in
samples with smaller loads but added that the higher temperature was necessary for larger loads
and concluded that disinfecting chemicals were a better option.
Earlier research has reached similar conclusions.
A National Academies of Sciences (NAS) panel
told the White House in early April that previous research suggesting a connection between
temperature and the virus's transmissibility was flawed. "There is some evidence to suggest
that [the coronavirus] may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient
temperature and humidity; however, given the lack of host immunity globally, this reduction in
transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread" without
efforts such as social distancing, the NAS report stated, noting that SARS and MERS are not
seasonal.
SARS-CoV-2 , the virus that causes COVID-19 , is highly infectious. Curiously, in many
patients, it triggers poor immune responses, which prolongs illness. This helps the virus
spread widely, exacerbating the global pandemic. In a new study published in the Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences , researchers at the University of Minnesota identified
the biochemical mechanism that may explain how the virus infects people efficiently while
evading their immune responses.
This study, led by Fang Li, a professor in the College of Veterinary Medicine, examined the
mechanism by which SARS-CoV-2 enters cells. Specifically, the team of scientists investigated
how the virus "unlocks" human cells using a surface spike protein as the "key." They made three
important findings:
the tip of the viral key binds strongly to human cells;
the tip of the viral key is often hidden; and
when new virus particles are made, the viral key is already pre-activated by a human
enzyme.
"Typically when a virus develops mechanisms to evade immune responses, it loses its potency
to infect people," said Li. "However, SARS-CoV-2 maintains its infectivity using two
mechanisms. First, during its limited exposure time, the tip of the viral key grabs a receptor
protein on human cells quickly and firmly. Second, the pre-activation of the viral key allows
the virus to more effectively infect human cells."
Li says that recognizing the evasiveness of SARS-CoV-2 is important for designing antibody
drugs and vaccines. Antibody drugs would need to overpower the tip of the hidden viral key by
latching onto it very quickly and tightly during its limited exposure time. Alternatively,
drugs can target other parts of the viral key that are more exposed.
Li recommends that successful antiviral strategies will need to consider both the potency of
the virus and its evasiveness.
Reference: "Cell entry mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2" by Jian Shang, Yushun Wan, Chuming Luo,
Gang Ye, Qibin Geng, Ashley Auerbach and Fang Li, 6 May 2020, Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences . DOI:
10.1073/pnas.2003138117
The study is coauthored by postdoctoral researchers Jian Shang, Yushun Wan, and Chuming Luo,
graduate students Gang Ye and Qibin Geng, and junior scientist Ashley Auerbach. The National
Institutes of Health funded the study.
"... I've seen this appraisal in the medical community but not in any public commentary. It was developed to address Ebola and failed miserably. Tagged "a drug looking for a disease." ..."
The remdesivir drug by the company Gilead gets hyped as a potential useful drug against the
Covid-19 disease. This even after a serious study from China published in Lancet
found it useless:
In this study of adult patients admitted to hospital for severe COVID-19, remdesivir was
not associated with statistically significant clinical benefits.
A not completed Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial
(ACTT) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases also found that
remdesivir does not change the mortality of serious Covid-19 cases. But it found that the
drug may lead to a faster recovery. That has led to run on the hard to produce drug and
confusion about its distribution .
But the real scandal behind this is that Gilead has a second drug, GS-441524, that is more
promising and much easier to produce. STAT published a strong call on Gilead to
release it immediately:
The authors have the suspicion that Gilead has an ignoble motive for holding back the
better drug as its patent will run out sooner:
The attractive profile of GS-441524 from both manufacturing and clinical perspectives
raises this question: Why hasn't Gilead opted to advance this compound to the clinic? We
would be remiss for not mentioning patents, and thus profits. The first patent on GS-441524
was issued in 2009, while the first patent for remdesivir was issued in 2017.
...
Given GS-441524's optimal properties, we -- along with the millions of people awaiting an
effective treatment for Covid-19 -- are left to wonder why Gilead isn't giving it the same
attention it is giving remdesivir. The world can only hope it isn't for the sake of
protecting its intellectual property.
Surely it is profit that Gilead is after? I have heard quoted that one dose of
remdesivir is about $1'000 so a "full" cure (whatever that may be) is $30'000. The second
drug is almost certainly much cheaper.
They may think about reducing the cost if they find it is being given to the cat.
Deep thanks for the comment on Remdesivir. I've seen this appraisal in the medical
community but not in any public commentary. It was developed to address Ebola and failed
miserably. Tagged "a drug looking for a disease."
I certainly don't think that people should be coerced back to work if they don't want to,
though I do think we need to end these lockdowns as soon as possible. What we need is more
clear public messaging, from the government: making it clear to people that this disease
isn't actually that dangerous and that unless they are in an at risk group they really have
very little to be concerned about. Cards should be sent out with green, red, amber marking
where people can fill it out with their BMI, their underlying health conditions, chronic
diseases etc. and this will give them a picture for whether or not they and their household
is actually at risk.
People are talking about this disease like its the black death; as though it threatens
everyone and kills indiscriminately. This way of talking has created a completely unfounded
mass hysteria in the population. We are talking about a disease which has a case fatality
rate of 0.3% (according to the most detailed serological studies, such as the one carried out
in Gangelt) so it's a little more deadly than the flu. Of course, it will be a significant
killer for the next couple of years – but so is influenza, and nobody panics like this
and announces crackers lockdowns during a bad flu season.
Part of the problem has been the medias failure to adequately contextualise the data they
are presenting, so people just hear a large number of deaths and don't know what to make of
that number. Reporters need to be more clear about the fact that 800,000 people die every
year in the UK and that deviations of 5% on either side of this are not uncommon. We need to
be reminded that at 43,000 the number of excess deaths in the UK is about the same as the
number of excess deaths during the 2014/15 flu season – and still falls short of the
number of excess deaths during the 2017/18 flu season (excess deaths then were around
50,000). That context allows people to make sense of the data they read about without
panicking – how scared were you of going to work during the 17/18 flu season? Most
people probably didn't even notice.
The other problem is that the government has completely failed to give a serious
explanation for the lockdown to the public. They are spouting rubbish about "save lives"
without actually explaining why the lockdown would "save lives". As a result the public have
been given the wrong impression that just extending the lockdown on and on will save lives.
This is nonsense. Eventually the lockdown will be lifted and then the same people who would
have died before would die a bit later – so no lives would be saved apart from for a
few months. There are two explanations that could have been given for why we were
implementing the lockdown. Firstly, it could be to ensure that hospitals don't get overfilled
as happened in Wuhan and Northern Italy. If that was the aim, then a short lockdown (or a
local lockdown in London and some of the other cities with severe outbreaks) would have been
sufficient. It has been clear for at least the last three weeks that the government has
overestimated ICU needs, most hospitals around the country – including the Nightingale
in London – are completely empty. There are no more concerns about shortages of
ventilators as it is now clear they are not actually a good way to treat most cases. If there
is another severe outbreak in another city in the UK we can always just announce a small
local lockdown of that city. Secondly, it could be argued that lockdowns save lives because
they give us time to build up a testing capactiy so we can trace down cases and stop really
severe outbreaks from happening; but at 500,000 or so tests per week the UK is now testing a
lot of people and has the capacity to test even more. Apart from that I can't really think of
any other reason why a lockdown would "save lives".
So, no I don't think we should coerce people to go back to work. But once people are given
accurate information and this hysteria calms down, people will just go back to their lives as
normal. No coercion will be needed.
The distinction between 'with' and 'of' is self-evident bullshit, if you just think about
HIV and how it acts and what it does.
You just need to think it through: how could you possibly tell the difference?
Lots of semi-educated, semi-smart people are drawing this tenuous distinction vis a vis
Covid-19 that they would not dare to do with any other disease ('Oh no the real cause of his
illness was Kaposi sarcoma. It just happened to be an unfortunate coincidence that the
patient was HIV positive as well'.)
In any case, there was an actuary in a twitter thread I have now lost the addy for, who
pointed out that actuaries make decisions about this 'distinction' all the time, it is
literally their job. And the reality is that even for very old Covid-19 sufferers who die,
they are still losing a non-trivial number of years in terms of their lifespan, maybe up to 8
or 9 years.
Just look at excess death rates – they are at least as bad as the covid numbers, there
is no overcounting whatsoever going on in the UK. What is going on is very slow reporting of
non hospital covid death.
Just for the record, has the Department of Public Health ever taken the lead or even
participated significantly in the establishment of a despotic regime? First they told us to
eat more broccoli; and next thing you know, they're telling us we're going to be deloused.
@Quentin The "dying with, not of" is pretty much moot given that all-cause mortality in
England and Wales is twice normal. The Financial Times has a write up, but there's no way to
explain that away as mislabeling existing deaths. There's a lot of people who live 50 years
or more with high blood pressure or diabetes. They didn't just all die this month for no
reason.
But it does not test all deaths and only counts those who had a positive test result. I've
seen more complaints about likely undercounting than overcounting.
The UK is generous with its death figures: it counts those who die with Coronavirus, not
those who die of it. That's a nice but important distinction.
Not many car accidents in the respiratory ER, I thought.
The distinction between "with" and "of" matters very much for chronic conditions. A lot of
cancers are extremely slow-growing, for example; a 90-yo with early stage prostate cancer is
statistically likely to die of something fast-acting -- a car accident, a lung infection --
years before the prostate cancer becomes a problem. The thing-that-kills-you has to be
faster-acting than the thing-that-will-kill-you-if-you-live-long-enough. But COVID-19 is an
acute condition, actually pretty fast-acting: there's not a huge lot that kills you faster
than a lung infection. Major trauma? Septicemia, dehydration? If you're working at a
meatworks and you have COVID-19 and you get decapitated, that's "with not of", but that looks
to me like we're talking about tiny numbers, and you've just claimed that that's an important
distinction.
I don't think that that distinction is important. It's potentially non-zero, a source of
error that might potentially be significant but on the face of it that potential is so small
as to be ludicrous rather than important. You think otherwise, strongly enough to bother to
write a comment: please, explain to me what lead you to think that. Show me I'm wrong.
Regarding over/undercounting in general. There are just no standardiced rules for counting.
Every nation, sometimes every region does it´s own thing, with a wild mix of aspects
that under and overcount, or just delay reporting of some death. Overall overcounting
(compared to excess death rates, there is no objective rule whom to count anyway) seems to be
very rare, maybe Belgium?
Here is a nice graphic tool with weekly excess mortality data, they sure look particular ugly
in the UK: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality
If the infection rate in big cities and institutions is as high as some studies have
suggested (1/3 by some reports), counting "deaths by Covid-19" as "presumed deaths" +
"positive tests at death" will obviously be inaccurate. There are other reasons to count
asymptomatic infections.
If people like the form of argument "basically P, but it's more complicated than that, for
reason A, and B, and I think that's enough reasons, may as well just assert that P," I guess
I'm not going to stop them. Maybe they're right and I'm wrong. It's not like anyone's willing
to pay me to do it my way.
If the infection rate in big cities and institutions is as high as some studies have
suggested (1/3 by some reports), counting "deaths by Covid-19" as "presumed deaths" +
"positive tests at death" will obviously be inaccurate
I am forced to admit that I was approaching this problem with the perspective of the
situation we have in australia, where the disease is still very rare.
[which is to say much of what I said and implied is wrong, for which I apologise.]
Posted by: fairleft | May 14 2020 0:35 utc | 253 So because you didn't read the word
"healthy" in my description of the truth about Covid-19 (which I note you do not deny),
you've stupidly decided I'm a troll.
No, you've been pushing this "only the elderly are at risk" *crap* since forever. *Of
course* healthy people are at limited risk. That's been known since almost day one from
China. As soon as the first statistics came out, we knew that *most* people don't die from
it.
What you *deliberately* have ignored and continue to ignore is the number of people who
*are* at risk from re-opening the economy too soon. I have cited the *millions* of people who
are at risk several times in these threads. The numbers aren't hard to find. And every expert
who has written about risk factors since the first statistics came out have pointed that
out.
But it doesn't fit your agenda, so you ignore it.
"And I'm not writing about Amerikkka moron."
Nice try. You were referring to the Galbraith piece in the top post which is explicitly
referring to the US. Moron.
Typical troll behavior. Deflect, deny, make counter accusations, continually re-assert the
same positions no matter how many times they are debunked.
Why b hasn't kicked your ass to the curb is beyond me. Few people here are posting more
nonsense than you - and you have even less actual evidence.
In Germany a huge scandal is growing. I'm surprised that this didn't emerge here yet (as far
as I can see).
An official in the Ministry for Interior has blown the whistle. After trying to forward a
study about the effect of the lockdown measures to his superiors, including Minister for
Interior Horst Seehofer, and being ignored, he leaked the study to a non-mainstream online
magazine. The study has reached the mainstream meanwhile.
Stephan Kohn (who was fired immediately of course) assesses the German reaction as
"Fehlalarm" (false alarm), claims that the lockdown has charged/will charge many more deaths
than the virus itself. It was a grotesque overreaction, not only in Germany, but in many
other countries.
I will just take one point, which the majority here, AFAICS, has never taken into account:
collateral damage. In Germany, in March/April 2020, 90% of important, in part life-saving
operations have not been conducted because the beds were reserved for the expected giant
Corona wave that didn't arrive. This means between 1,5 Million and 2,5 Million people are
affected, and it is only a matter of statistics how many lives have been lost or shortened
due to the delayed operations. Cohn estimates between 5000 and 125000 premature deaths which
easily outweigh the 7000 Corona deaths.
And this is just one point.
Like so many virologists, he says Corona is not worse than a strong flu.
Here's Who's Dying From Covid-19 in the United States
Data and new research reveal all age groups are at risk, from children to middle age and
beyond https://tinyurl.com/y8ch67qk
"We estimated that 45.4% of U.S. adults are at increased risk for complications from
coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease,
hypertension, or cancer," according to a new analysis from the CDC. Those at elevated risk
include 19.8% of people age 18 to 29 and 80.7% for people over age 80.
As I've pointed out before, the virus may mostly kill older people - but it's because of
the co-morbidities which almost *half* of US adults suffer from. More than 25 million
Americans have asthma. This is 7.7 percent of adults and 8.4 percent of children. Currently,
there are about 6.2 million children under the age of 18 with asthma. Granted, most of them
probably never will get this virus - but those who do...
Separately, a new study of children with Covid-19 admitted to pediatric intensive care
units in the United States and Canada concludes that while the overall severity of symptoms
in the children was "far less than that documented in adults Covid-19 can result in a
significant disease burden in children." According to the research, published in JAMA
Pediatrics, 40 of the 48 children, ranging in age from four to 16, had underlying medical
conditions. Two of them died, and three remain on ventilators. /BLOCKQUOTE> Assuming the
three on ventilators die, that's five out of 48 - ten percent.
So much for the "we can let the old people die" meme. No one wants to claim a
willingness to let kids die to re-open the economy.
Interesting *opinion* piece supporting HCQ over remdesivir. I take no position on this
argument - unlike many here - except that as I've said before, we need a *good* set of
studies on both (and every other treatment, which includes the EVMS treatment I discuss
above) and then a decent review study to interpret the results for us laymen. Perhaps that's
another case of "good luck with that" any time before, say, five or ten years from now...
Ah, the same doctor referenced above as author of the "A Tale of Two Drugs" has another
*opinion* article on the same topic - HCQ. Again, I have no idea whether her statements are
factual, although presumably her quoting the CDC on HCQ is accurate, which in itself is
interesting if true.
On duration of use: "CDC has no limits on the use of hydroxychloroquine for the prevention
of malaria. When hydroxychloroquine is used at higher doses for many years, a rare eye
condition called retinopathy has occurred. People who take hydroxychloroquine for more than
five years should get regular eye exams."
NOTE: CDC guidelines for use in malaria do not even mention the "fatal heart arrhythmia"
hyped in the fear-mongering articles in the media. Rheumatology guidelines for HCQ in lupus
and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) do not require a baseline EKG to check heart rhythm, although
doctors might order one before prescribing HCQ if needed for a patient with heart disease.
SARS-CoV-2 itself, which can damage to the heart, may be responsible for some heart
problems now blamed on HCQ.
In this observational study involving patients with Covid-19 who had been admitted to
the hospital, hydroxychloroquine administration was not associated with either a greatly
lowered or an increased risk of the composite end point of intubation or death. Randomized,
controlled trials of hydroxychloroquine in patients with Covid-19 are needed. (Funded by the
National Institutes of Health.)"
According to what we learnt in the meantime the use of HCQ at a quite late stadium of this
illness is as meaningless as most likely the use of Remdisivir (another kind of pure
antiviral medicament) would have been. The only thing what one can learn from this study
isthat HCQ apparently did not damage people. So your sentence „...to be as false as the
promotion of the useless but potentially dangerous Hydroxychloroquine as a therapy for
Covid-19." is just nonsense.
UCSF Health Hospital Epidemiology and Infection Prevention COVID-19 Global Clinical
Knowledge Base https://tinyurl.com/y9qu3qs6
The goal of this site is to compile a comprehensive but curated directory of
publicly-available practice guidelines, clinical protocols, and other resources related to
COVID-19. We hope this resource will encourage clinicians and medical organizations to
share knowledge and compare practices with peers.
Submitted resources are reviewed by a team of medical professionals for accuracy and
relevance. We do not specifically endorse any resource posted on this site.
"... The forcible prevention of Americans from doing anything except what politicians deem "essential" has led to the worst economy in American history since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It is panic and hysteria, not the coronavirus , that created this catastrophe. And the consequences in much of the world will be more horrible than in America. ..."
"... That would be enough to characterize the worldwide lockdown as a deathly error. But there is much more. If global GDP declines by 5%, another 147 million people could be plunged into extreme poverty, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute. ..."
"... Foreign Policy magazine reports that, according to the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will shrink by 3% in 2020, marking the biggest downturn since the Great Depression, and the U.S., the eurozone and Japan will contract by 5.9%, 7.5% and 5.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, across South Asia, as of a month ago, tens of millions were already "struggling to put food on the table." Again, all because of the lockdowns, not the virus. ..."
The idea that the worldwide lockdown of virtually every country other than Sweden may have
been an enormous mistake strikes many - including world leaders; most scientists, especially
health officials, doctors and epidemiologists; those who work in major news media; opinion
writers in those media; and the hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people who put their
faith in these people - as so preposterous as to be immoral.
Timothy Egan of The New York Times described Republicans who wish to enable their states to
open up as "the party of death."
That's the way it is today on planet Earth, where deceit, cowardice and immaturity now
dominate almost all societies because the elites are deceitful, cowardly and immature.
But for those open to reading thoughts they may differ with, here is the case for why the
worldwide lockdown is not only a mistake but also, possibly, the worst mistake the world has
ever made. And for those intellectually challenged by the English language and/or logic,
"mistake" and "evil" are not synonyms. The lockdown is a mistake; the Holocaust, slavery,
communism, fascism, etc., were evils. Massive mistakes are made by arrogant fools; massive
evils are committed by evil people.
The forcible prevention of Americans from doing anything except what politicians deem
"essential" has led to the worst economy in American history since the Great Depression of the
1930s. It is panic and hysteria, not the coronavirus , that created this catastrophe. And the
consequences in much of the world will be more horrible than in America.
The United Nations World Food Programme, or the WFP, states that by the end of the year,
more than 260 million people will face starvation -- double last year's figures. According to
WFP director David Beasley on April 21:
"We could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries...
There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic
impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself " (italics added).
That would be enough to characterize the worldwide lockdown as a deathly error. But there is
much more. If global GDP declines by 5%, another 147 million people could be plunged into
extreme poverty, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Foreign Policy magazine reports that, according to the International Monetary Fund, the
global economy will shrink by 3% in 2020, marking the biggest downturn since the Great
Depression, and the U.S., the eurozone and Japan will contract by 5.9%, 7.5% and 5.2%,
respectively. Meanwhile, across South Asia, as of a month ago, tens of millions were already
"struggling to put food on the table." Again, all because of the lockdowns, not the virus.
In one particularly incomprehensible act, the government of India, a poor country of 1.3
billion people, locked down its people. As Quartz India reported on April 22, "Coronavirus has
killed only around 700 Indians a small number still compared to the 450,000 TB and 10,000-odd
malaria deaths recorded every year."
One of the thousands of unpaid garment workers protesting the lockdown in Bangladesh
understands the situation better than almost any health official in the world:
"We are starving. If we don't have food in our stomach, what's the use of observing this
lockdown?"
But concern for that Bangladeshi worker among the world's elites seems nonexistent.
The lockdown is " possibly even more catastrophic (than the virus) in its outcome : the
collapse of global food-supply systems and widespread human starvation" (italics added).
That was published in the left-wing The Nation, which, nevertheless, enthusiastically
supports lockdowns. But the American left cares as much about the millions of non-Americans
reduced to hunger and starvation because of the lockdown as it does about the people of upstate
New York who have no incomes, despite the minuscule number of coronavirus deaths there. Or
about the citizens of Oregon, whose governor has just announced the state will remain locked
down until July 6. As of this writing, a total of 109 people have died of the coronavirus in
Oregon.
An example of how disinterested the left is in worldwide suffering is made abundantly clear
in a front-page "prayer" by a left-wing Christian in the current issue of The Nation: "May we
who are merely inconvenienced remember those whose lives are at stake."
"Merely inconvenienced" is how the Rev. Dr. William J. Barber II, a Protestant minister and
president of the North Carolina NAACP, describes the tens of millions of Americans rendered
destitute, not to mention the hundreds of millions around the world rendered not only penniless
but hungry. The truth is, like most of the elites, it is Barber who is "merely inconvenienced."
Indeed, the American battle today is between the merely inconvenienced and the rest of
America.
Michael Levitt, professor of structural biology at Stanford Medical School and winner of the
2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry, recently stated, "There is no doubt in my mind that when we come
to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge
factor."
To the left, anyone who questions the lockdown is driven by preference for money over lives.
Typical of the left's moral shallowness is this headline on Salon this week:
"It's Time To Reject the Gods of Commerce: America Is a Society, Not an 'Economy,'" with
the subhead reading, "America Is About People, Not Profit Margins."
And, of course, to smug editors and writers of The Atlantic, in article after repetitive
article, the fault lies not with the lockdown but with President Donald Trump. The most popular
article in The Atlantic this week is titled "The Rest of the World Is Laughing at Trump." The
elites can afford to laugh at whatever they want. Meanwhile, the less fortunate -- that is,
most people -- are crying.
So-called immunity passports would bring back the worst civil liberties abuses of the past
and result in a crime wave. Credit: M.Moira/Shutterstock
May 13, 2020
|
12:01 am
Bill
Wirtz The coronavirus lockdown drags on, yet only a few fringe fanatics (and France, but I
repeat myself) support continuing complete shutdowns of the world's economies. However, even
those countries that have opted to end forced quarantines still present a range of worrying
responses. One of these ongoing debates surrounds the so-called "Corona apps," with which
authorities intend to track and trace the movements of their own citizens. In Poland, the
government is
mandating that those infected with COVID-19 install an app and use it to send a selfie on a
regular basis. If they do not comply, they face a visit from the law enforcement.
The nightmarish infringements on civil liberties are set to continue with "immunity
passports." The German Robert Koch Institute, along with other researchers and blood donation
services, is
working on a large-scale study to establish immunity in COVID-19 patients. Those found to
have built immunity, either because they've already had the disease or through antibody
testing, could be issued paperwork that exempts them from lockdown restrictions.
CNN's medical analyst Saju Mathew counts himself as convinced by the concept, and quotes a
noted beacon of human freedom to back it up: "In China, for example, QR codes have been used to
loosen restrictions in Wuhan, where the pandemic originated. People assessed to be healthy have
been given a green QR code, indicating they can travel within the province."
From a law enforcement level, the existence of immunity passports would extend indefinitely
the practice of questioning citizens without reasonable suspicion at any time. "Papers please"
wouldn't be experienced only because one is crossing a border, but merely because one is
outside. If you were worried about rogue police abusing power before, wait until stop and frisk
becomes the norm all across the United States, at any time of the day.
In the United Kingdom, Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the government's new and
emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group,
told The Guardian that "people granted the passports would have to be kept under
close observation to ensure they were not becoming reinfected." In practice, this would amount
to daily identification checkpoints and mandatory home visits. Any pretense of individual
liberty and fundamental rights would go out the window.
But beyond that, on a more practical level, the measure would be inoperable.
In a scientific brief published at the end of April , the World Health Organization (WHO)
-- known to be warm on authoritarian measures such as those used by China -- preliminarily
rejected the idea of these passports. Current antibody tests, the WHO warned, could confuse
immunity with one of the six existing coronaviruses, four of which cause the common cold. The
WHO also noted that such paperwork would give citizens the impression that they do not need to
abide by social distancing guidelines, giving them a false sense of security. Professor
Openshaw adds that immunity passports would incentivize people to try and deliberately catch
coronavirus, which could end up overwhelming the health sector, exactly the scenario that the
lockdowns are meant to prevent.
There's also a massive opportunity for crime under such a proposal. In 2015,
50 million travel documents were either lost or stolen. In 2014, the UK recorded a five-year high of
counterfeit passport seizures. Fake passports fuel organized crime and have long been available
on the black market. Immunity passports would be far more valuable, since they would grant not
just the ability to go to other countries, but other basic freedoms of movement, going into
shops or meeting friends. The idea that people would pay a pretty price for their freedom would
be an understatement. In turn, the government could only react to such a flood of false
documentation by becoming more authoritarian, casting us into yet another spiral of increasing
state control.
There is no instance in which the systematic control of citizens has not ended in police
abuse, or plain and simple authoritarianism. There is a genuine fear about the coronavirus.
That said, we cannot allow such fear to rid us completely of our fundamental rights. States of
emergency were and are designed to be temporary, and in that, to be short.
If the debate is over whether to radically overturn the Bill of Rights and human rights
conventions, then let us have that debate. Let us talk about rewriting the rules, instead of
just plain ignoring them.
Bill Wirtz comments on European politics and policy in English, French, and German. His
work has appeared in Newsweek , the Washington Examiner , CityAM, Le Monde
, Le Figaro , and Die Welt .
"... The medical examiner's database showed COVID-19 as the primary cause of death for 2,303 people. Of those, 2,112 were shown to have at least one underlying condition as a secondary cause of death. Those conditions, also known as comorbidities, included hypertension, diabetes, obesity and heart disease. There were no secondary causes reported for 191 deaths. ..."
"... For months, Illinois residents have lived in fear, a fear that has been exacerbated by a lack of transparency and open reporting from the state. ..."
A Wirepoints analysis of COVID-19 deaths from the Cook County Medical Examiner's office
reveals that 92 percent of victims from the virus had pre-existing medical conditions.
The medical examiner's
database showed COVID-19 as the primary cause of death for 2,303 people. Of those, 2,112
were shown to have at least one underlying condition as a secondary cause of death. Those
conditions, also known as comorbidities, included hypertension, diabetes, obesity and heart
disease. There were no secondary causes reported for 191 deaths.
... ... ...
Hypertension affected 1,070 victims, or more than 46 percent of all deaths. Diabetes
impacted 973 victims, or 42 percent of the total. Pulmonary disease was part of 397 deaths, or
17 percent. And 215 of those deaths, about 9 percent, were accompanied by obesity or morbid
obesity.
Yet others had conditions including cancer and cardiovascular and kidney diseases. The
numbers above add up to more than 100 percent because many victims had more than one
pre-existing condition.
,,, ,,, ,,,
What’s stark about the Cook comorbidity data is just how few young adults die from
COVID-19 in the absence of some pre-existing condition. Just 3 of the 15 deaths in the 20-29
age bracket had no comorbidities. Same goes for the 30-39 and 40-49 age brackets, where just 26
of the 132 deaths were accompanied with no underlying causes.
Even more, almost 50 percent
of all Illinois deaths have
been tied to long-term care facilities, the subject of an upcoming Wirepoints piece. That
means nearly 1,600 deaths occurred outside the general public.
For months, Illinois residents have lived in fear, a fear that has been exacerbated by a
lack of transparency and open reporting from the state.
Interesting book "Deadly Medicines and Organized Crime " published in 2013 by PETER C
GØTZSCHE
He points out "Science philosopher Karl Popper in "The Open Society and Its Enemies"
depicts the totalitarian, closed society as a rigidly ordered state in which freedom of
expression and discussion of crucial issues are ruthlessly suppressed. Most of the time, when
I have tried to publish unwelcome truths about the drug industry, I have been exposed to the
journal's lawyers, and even after I have documented that everything I say is correct and have
been said before by others, I have often experienced that important bits have been removed or
that my paper was rejected for no other reason than fear of litigation. This is one of the
reasons I decided to write this book, as I have discovered that I have much more freedom when
I write books. Popper would have viewed the pharmaceutical industry as an enemy of the open
society.
Rigorous science should put itself at risk of being falsified and this practice should be
protected against those who try to impede scientific understanding, as when the industry
intimidates those who discover harms of its drugs. Protecting the hypotheses by ad hoc
modifications, such as undeclared changes to the measured outcomes or the analysis plan once
the sponsor has seen the results, or by designing trials that make them immune to refutation,
puts the hypotheses in the same category as pseudoscience.
In healthcare, the open democratic society has become an oligarchy of corporations whose
interests serve the profit motive of the industry and shape public policy, including that of
weakened regulatory agencies. Our governments have failed to regulate an industry, which has
become more and more powerful and almighty, and failed to protect scientific objectivity and
academic curiosity from commercial forces."
Thats about it in a nutshell. Too bad the good scientists are all muzzled. Only the
politicized fraudsters get the good press.
Renegade
Inc interview with Gerald
Posner the author of PHARMA: Greed, Lies, and the Poisoning of America is lively,
timely, revealing, and very informative! An excellent 25 minute investment of your time
today. In the book which was written well before the COVID-19 breakout, Posner did address
the issue of pandemic which
this article reported on along with other aspects of PHARMA . And there's much
more at his website.
How coronavirus attacks the human body - The Washington Post It mostly spares the young.
Until it doesn't: Last week, doctors warned of a rare
inflammatory reaction with cardiac complications among children that may be connected to
the virus. On Friday, New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) announced 73 children had fallen
severely ill in the state and a 5-year-old boy in New York City had become the first child to
die of the syndrome. Two more children had succumbed as of Saturday.
That news has shaken many doctors, who felt they were finally grasping the full dimensions
of the disease in adults. "We were all thinking this is a disease that kills old people, not
kids," Reich said.
Mount Sinai has treated five children with the condition. Reich said each started with
gastrointestinal symptoms, which turned into inflammatory complications that caused very low
blood pressure and expanded their blood vessels. This led to heart failure in the case of the
first child who died.
"The pattern of disease was different than anything else with covid," he said.
"We were all thinking this is a disease that kills old people, not kids," said David Reich,
president of Mount Sinai Hospital in Manhattan. (Jeenah Moon/Reuters)
Of the millions, perhaps billions, of coronaviruses, six were previously known to infect
humans.
Four cause colds that spread easily each winter, barely noticed. Another was responsible for
the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome that killed 774 people in 2003. Yet another
sparked the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome in 2012, which kills 34 percent of the
people who contract it. But few do.
It has infected 4 million people around the globe, killing more than 280,000, according to
the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. In the United States, 1.3 million
have been infected and more than 78,000 have died.
Had SARS or MERS spread as widely as this virus, Rasmussen said, they might have shown the
same capacity to attack beyond the lungs. But they were snuffed out quickly, leaving only a
small sample of disease and death.
Paramedics bring home a woman with covid-19 who underwent an emergency C-section because she
was gravely ill. After extensive care, including time on a ventilator, she was released from a
hospital in Stamford, Conn., and she has a healthy newborn. (John Moore/Getty Images)
Trying to define a pathogen in the midst of an ever-spreading epidemic is fraught with
difficulties. Experts say it will be years until it is understood how the disease damages
organs and how medications, genetics, diets, lifestyles and distancing impact its course.
"This is a virus that literally did not exist in humans six months ago," said Geoffrey
Barnes, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan who works in cardiovascular
medicine. "We had to rapidly learn how this virus impacts the human body and identify ways to
treat it literally in a time-scale of weeks. With many other diseases, we have had
decades."
In the initial days of the outbreak, most efforts focused on the lungs. SARS-CoV-2 infects
both the upper and lower respiratory tracts, eventually working its way deep into the lungs,
filling tiny air sacs with cells and fluid that choke off the flow of oxygen.
But many scientists have come to believe that much of the disease's devastation comes from
two intertwined causes.
The first is the
harm the virus wreaks on blood vessels, leading to clots that can range from microscopic to
sizable. Patients have suffered strokes and pulmonary emboli as clots break loose and travel to
the brain and lungs. A study in the Lancet, a British medical journal, showed this may be
because the virus directly targets the endothelial cells that line blood vessels.
The second is an exaggerated response from the body's own immune system, a storm of killer
"cytokines" that attack the body's own cells along with the virus as it seeks to defend the
body from an invader.
"Things change in science all the time. Theories are made and thrown out. Hypotheses are
tweaked. It doesn't mean we don't know what we are doing. It means we are learning," said
Deepak Bhatt, executive director of interventional cardiology at Brigham and Women's Hospital
in Boston.
Inflammation of those endothelial cells lining blood vessels may help explain why the virus
harms so many parts of the body, said Mandeep Mehra, a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical
School and one of the authors of the Lancet study on how covid-19 attacks blood
vessels.
Subtitle Settings Font Font Size Font Edge Font Color Background The novel coronavirus is a master of disguise: Here's how it works Skip
That means defeating covid-19 will require more than antiviral therapy, he said.
"What this virus does is it starts as a viral infection and becomes a more global
disturbance to the immune system and blood vessels -- and what kills is exactly that," Mehra
said. "Our hypothesis is that covid-19 begins as a respiratory virus and kills as a
cardiovascular virus."
The thinking of kidney specialists has evolved along similar lines. Initially, they
attributed widespread and severe kidney disease to the damage caused by ventilators and certain
medications given to intensive-care patients, said Daniel Batlle, a professor of medicine at
Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine.
Then they noticed damage to the waste-filtering kidney cells of patients even before they
needed intensive care. And studies out of Wuhan found the pathogen in the kidneys themselves,
leading to speculation the virus is harming the organ.
"There was nothing unique at first," Batlle said. But the new information "shows this is
beyond the regular bread-and-butter acute kidney injury that we normally see."
Like other coronaviruses, SARS-Cov-2 infiltrates the body by attaching to a receptor, ACE2,
found on some cells. But the makeup of the spikes that protrude from this virus is somewhat
different, allowing the virus to bind more tightly. As a result, fewer virus particles are
required to infect the host. This also may help explain why this virus is so much more
infectious than SARS, Rasmussen said.
Other factors can't be ruled out in transmission, she said, including the amount of virus
people shed and how strictly they observe social distancing rules.
Once inside a cell, the virus replicates, causing chaos. ACE2 receptors, which help regulate
blood pressure, are plentiful in the lungs, kidneys and intestines -- organs hit hard by the
pathogen in many patients. That also may be why high blood pressure has emerged as one of the
most common preexisting conditions in people who become severely ill with
covid-19.
A colorized scan of a cell (shown in red) infected with SARS-COV-2 virus particles (shown in
yellow), isolated from a patient sample. (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases)
The receptors differ from person to person, leading to speculation that genetics may explain
some of the variability in symptoms and how sick some people become.
Those cells "are almost everywhere, so it makes sense that the virus would cause damage
throughout the body," said Mitchell Elkind, a professor of neurology at Columbia University's
College of Physicians and Surgeons and president-elect of the American Heart Association.
Inflammation spurs clotting as white blood cells fight off infection. They interact with
platelets and activate them in a way that increases the likelihood of clotting, Elkind
said.
Such reactions have been seen in severe infections, such as sepsis. But for covid-19, he
said, "we are seeing this in a large number of people in a very short time, so it really stands
out."
"The virus can attack a lot of different parts of the body, and we don't understand why it
causes some problems for some people, different problems for others -- and no problems at all
for a large proportion," Elkind said.
Coughlin, in critical condition at a hospital in Connecticut, deteriorated quickly after she
reached the emergency room. Her fever shot up to 105 and pneumonia developed in her lungs.
On Wednesday, she called her six daughters on FaceTime, telling them doctors advised she go
on a ventilator.
"If something happens to me, and I don't make it, I'm at peace with it," she told them.
The conversation broke daughter Coleman's heart.
"I am deciding to help her go on a ventilator, and she may never come off," she said. "That
could have been my last phone conversation with her."
Illustrations from iStock. Edited byCarol Eisenberg. Photo
editing byNick Kirkpatrick.
Copy-edited by Jennifer Anderson and Thomas Floyd. Design and development byTyler
Remmel.
The small, handheld units, which normally attach to your finger or toe, monitor your
oxygen-saturation level -- which, if that level dips below 90%, can be an indicator that you have
COVID-19.
"Oximeters measure how efficient the lungs are at getting the blood filled with oxygen," Dr. Eric Cioe-Pena,
director of global health at
Northwell Health
,
tells The Post. "Most healthy people's reading of oxygen in the blood is 100%.
"We are seeing lower levels in coronavirus patients because the virus impedes their ability to
oxygenate the blood. There is fluid, instead of air, in their lungs, and so, when the blood passes
through those organs, it doesn't get oxygen."
The doctor, based in New Hyde Park, LI, adds that he has treated COVID-19 sufferers with blood-oxygen
levels as low as 55% and even 27%.
Speaking on his radio show, Cohen, 51, said, "You could scare yourself and think: 'Oh my God, my lungs
don't feel right,' but you could use this pulse oximeter and see, OK, actually, you're fine, you're
within the range." CNN host Chris Cuomo, 49, who currently
has the coronavirus
, has also been testing his oxygen levels daily using an oximeter, according to
his wife, Cristina, who
shared an extensive update
on Cuomo's health earlier this week.
No wonder people are scrambling to purchase their own oximeters, which can be found at pharmacies and
online for anywhere from $20 to $50.
But Cioe-Pena maintains that healthy people don't need them. Not only that, a rush on the devices
could cause problems at hospitals and other emergency facilities that require them, similar to the
situation that played out over N95 masks and
other gear for essential medical workers
.
"The issue is supply and demand," explains Cioe-Pena, adding that the information given by an oximeter
about oxygen is really "only good if you have the ability to supply supplementary oxygen, like you can in
a hospital." He notes as well that folks with "underlying conditions such as diabetes, hypertension or
chronic lung disease" might need to have access to oximeters more than the average healthy person with
fears of contracting the coronavirus.
"... According to the Mayo Clinic, a normal pulse oximeter oxygen level reading is between 95% and 100% , and anything less than 90% is considered dangerously low, or hypoxic. Some doctors have reported COVID-19 patients entering the hospital with oxygen levels at 50% or below . ..."
Some doctors are recommending these small, inexpensive devices to help monitor
symptoms.
A pulse oximeter attaches to a finger and uses light to detect the level of oxygen in your blood.
As
coronavirus
testing efforts
continue to ramp up and
face masks
are now a part of everyday life, a small diagnostic tool that clips to the tip of your
finger is fast becoming a must-have gadget in the
fight
against the coronavirus
. It's called a pulse oximeter, and it painlessly checks your blood oxygen
level, which can be affected by lung diseases such as COVID-19.
The device was already starting to surge in popularity as word got around
that people with the
coronavirus
frequently
arrive
at the hospital with abnormally low oxygen levels
. After an
op-ed
piece in The New York Times
recommended the use of pulse oximeters to detect a frightening
condition called "silent hypoxia," sales of the devices
skyrocketed
.
Many models are sold out or on lengthy backorder online. Same with brick-and-mortar drug stores,
supermarkets and box stores.
"... "Our outcomes are similar to the state of Pennsylvania, where the median age of death from COVID-19 is 84 years old. ..."
"... "COVID-19 is a disease that ravages those with preexisting conditions – whether it be immunosenescence of aging or the social determinants of health. We can manage society in the presence of this pathogen if we focus on these preexisting conditions. ..."
i wonder if the average age of our government was say 30, do you think they would have
chosen to lock down the country? No.. Its because the average age of our government is more
like 68.. We are sacrificing ourselves to protect the old, the least productive part of our
society.
Im 33, i have had the virus, it was mild.i have had worse colds. Im running out of money!
unlike pensioners who get there cash regardless i need to earn it. Furthermore the pension
these people currently draw i will never see, we realise now that pensions as they were
cannot be sustained, but yet they still have them. If they are like my grandparents they
retired over 20 years ago.. 2/3 of my life, and have drawn private/public pensions since,
they consume the vast majority of the NHS resources so they can stay alive another day and
continue drawing pensions. The old people of my country also own the majority of the
property, i rent my house of a couple in there 70s, i pay them over £1000 per month to
live here. i cannot afford to buy.
When i do get a little bit of work at the moment i head out to find the roads and shops
populated with fucking pensioners, all driving around in there stupid tall and narrow cars
doing 40mph in a 60 oblivious to the world and economy that is around them paying them their
pensions and protect them.
my attitude is simple.. if you dont want to catch it, dont go out.. no need to lockdown
everybody, just the ones who fear this.. like you B. Its my right to live or die as i chose,
not under the kosh of the fucking gray mafia.
ive already given up following the 'rules' fuck em all.
"Our outcomes are similar to the state of Pennsylvania, where the median age of death
from COVID-19 is 84 years old. The few younger patients who died all had significant
preexisting conditions. Very few children were infected and none died. Minorities in our
communities fared equally as well as others, but we know that this is not the case
nationally. In sum, this is a disease of the elderly, sick and poor. ...
"COVID-19 is a disease that ravages those with preexisting conditions – whether
it be immunosenescence of aging or the social determinants of health. We can manage society
in the presence of this pathogen if we focus on these preexisting conditions.
"What we cannot do, is extended social isolation. Humans are social beings, and we are
already seeing the adverse mental health consequences of loneliness, and that is before the
much greater effects of economic devastation take hold on the human condition."
- Dr. Steven Shapiro, University of Pennsylvania Medical Center chief medical and
scientific officer
Pretty easy to spot the tattoo-sleeved, cranial-pierced, hipster baristas with no productive
skills in here as they are manically demanding that everyone else go to work. After
all, they cannot go back to slinging idiot-proof pre-measured lattes until real working
people are out and about, so they shriek for everyone else to go back to normal.
But isn't the current situation just a huge basket of opportunities for real bold
entrepreneurs? If one is some hero type like the guy above who has "given up following the
'rules'" , then the marketplaces are theirs for the taking, what with all of the
competition shut down. If one wants the capitalists' economy to be "re-opened" , then
they need to be like the fabled entrepreneurs that worked for their wealth and take the
initiative oneself instead of demanding that others do it for them.
Or are the whiners demanding that the economy be "re-opened" really just kids
wishing their parents would go back to work because that is who actually pays the rent on
their hipster apartments?
Something these individuals will have to confront is that things are never "going back
to normal" . A new normal is being born, and it ain't very normal.
At least five US teams have cloned antibodies to Covid-19, paving the way for cutting-edge
treatments that could be what one researcher calls "an immunity bridge" before a vaccine comes
along. The treatment is monoclonal antibody therapy, and the antibodies come from people who
have recovered from the novel coronavirus. Researchers then take the blood, select the most
potent antibodies, and make them into a drug. One company, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, hopes to
have a treatment available to patients as early as the end of the summer. "I think monoclonal
antibody therapy has enormous promise as the next big thing for Covid-19," said Dr. Peter
Hotez, a vaccine specialist at Baylor University School of Medicine who is not involved in the
research. Monoclonal antibody therapy is a modern take on convalescent plasma, where someone
who has recovered from coronavirus donates blood to someone who is currently ill. Read More
Even if convalescent plasma is effective -- it's still being studied -- it has two
shortcomings. First, one person can only give so much blood. Second, the donor might not have
enough strong antibodies for the blood donation to be effective. To develop a monoclonal
antibody treatment, researchers cull through thousands of antibodies to find the best ones, and
then clone them potentially in unlimited amounts. Many other illnesses are treated with
monoclonal antibodies, such as various forms of cancer, HIV, asthma, lupus, multiple sclerosis
and various forms of cancer, but of course there's no guarantee it could work for Covid-19.
<img alt="What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It has happened before"
src="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200428210047-coronavirus-new-york-0320-large-169.jpg">What
happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It has happened before "One of the
things about the search is it's a little bit like finding a needle in a haystack. We're all
searching for the magical antibody that's a silver bullet," said Dr. James Crowe, who's leading
the Covid-19 monoclonal antibody effort at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Regeneron is
hoping to start clinical trials for an antibody treatment for coronavirus in humans as soon as
next month, and if everything goes right, perhaps have a treatment ready for widespread
distribution by the end of the summer. "We generated thousands of [antibodies] and then
selected the most powerful and potent ones to grow up into an antibody cocktail," said company
president Dr. George Yancopoulos. Like any treatment under development, it might not pan out.
But if it does, it could treat coronavirus and possibly also prevent infection for a period of
time. A vaccine would likely offer longer lasting immunity, but that would likely take longer
to develop, with the earliest estimates set at January. "I think antibodies will be finished
first, and will be the bridge toward longer immunity, which will be conferred by vaccines,"
said Crowe, director of the Vanderbilt Vaccine Center at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
'A guided nuclear warhead' In mid-January, researchers at the Rockefeller University in
New York City heard from the National Institutes of Health: Get to work because we hope to have
coronavirus antibodies cloned by the spring. About two months later, Rockefeller researcher
Jill Horowitz found herself handing out fliers outside a supermarket in New Rochelle, New York,
inviting people who'd recovered from coronavirus to learn more about the Rockefeller study.
<img alt="They won the fight against coronavirus. Here&#39;s what life looks like on
the other side"
src="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200416042613-03-coronavirus-recovery-large-169.jpg">They won the
fight against coronavirus. Here's what life looks like on the other side The city -- and in
particular one synagogue -- had been hit hard by a coronavirus outbreak. "I'm Jewish, and I'm
Orthodox, and I know people at Young Israel. I have friends in New Rochelle. Our kids went to
school together, so I could go into the community and make my case," said Horowitz, executive
director of strategic operations in the immunology laboratory at Rockefeller. In all, more than
100 people donated blood for the study, many of them from the New Rochelle community. Some of
their stories will be told in an upcoming documentary, " Rebel Blood The Race to Cure Covid-19 ." The lead scientist in
Rockefeller's monoclonal antibody effort compares it to battle, noting that convalescent plasma
has been used for more than a century. "If you're thinking about a war, and you're fighting a
war with a drug that came out of the early part of the 20thcentury, the monoclonal antibody is
like a guided nuclear warhead in comparison," said Dr. Michel Nussenzweig, a professor at
Rockefeller. Research by several US teams Several other US teams also say they've cloned
antibodies, including Vanderbilt, Regeneron, Lilly Pharmaceuticals and Distributed Bio.
Regeneron anticipates starting clinical trials next month and hopes to provide "hundreds of
thousands of doses" to patients by the end of the summer, Yancopoulos said. The company already
makes monoclonal antibodies for several illnesses, including cancer, arthritis and asthma.
"We're using the same exact technology now to come up with a specific tailored approach against
Covid-19," Yancopoulos said. Get CNN Health's weekly newsletter Sign up here to get The Results Are In with Dr. Sanjay
Gupta every Tuesday from the CNN Health team. Other companies gave a longer timeline. For
example, Crowe, the doctor at Vanderbilt, said he anticipates it will be around the first
quarter of next year before his team might have a Covid monoclonal antibody treatment ready to
distribute. He said it's a good sign that several teams are working on monoclonal antibodies.
"I think the more groups we have working on it, all the better, and the more shots on goal we
have for getting an effective prevention or treatment," he said.
CNN's Dr. Minali Nigam, Devon Sayers and Wes Bruer contributed to this report.
Does Dr Fauci enjoy indirect financial ties to Gilead? Does he own the stock?
Notable quotes:
"... Basically, this was a negative trial. Of the 255 patients screened, 237 met the eligibility criteria, and 158 were assigned to the remdesivir group, with 79 assigned to placebo control. Unfortunately, remdesivir treatment was not associated with a shorter time to clinical improvement, and mortality was not different between the two groups. ..."
"... It does look very fishy to me. Endpoint or outcome switching, particularly late in a clinical trial is a huge red flag. ..."
"... There are also other reasons to question this trial, including how no confidence intervals were reported, that not even an abstract was published, just a press release with, as Heathers put it, "two results in four lines": ..."
"... I remain very suspicious that the NIH study was announced the same day that a negative study out of China of remdesivir was published. It just seems too convenient. Maybe I'm being overly suspicious. Maybe I'm too suspicious. Maybe I'm falling prey to conspiracy mongering. However, in the Trump era, when the Trump administration has politicized previously (mostly) apolitical government agencies as never before, it's hard not to wonder. ..."
"... He was unimpressed by remdesivir's modest benefit. "It was expected to be a whopping effect," Topol added. "It clearly does not have that." ..."
"... Indeed, given that the pre-test probability of remdesivir having a significant effect was low, meaning that this trial is probably just noise: ..."
"... But Gilead will make billions and billions of dollars ..."
"... Could Anthony Fauci explain why the investigators of the NIAID remdesivir trial did change the primary outcome during the course of the project (16th April)? Removing "death" from primary outcome is a surprising decision. ..."
"... The most common adverse effects in studies of remdesivir for COVID-19 include respiratory failure and blood biomarkers of organ impairment, including low albumin, low potassium, low count of red blood cells, low count of platelets that help with clotting, and yellow discoloration of the skin. Other reported side effects include gastrointestinal distress, elevated transaminase levels in the blood (liver enzymes), and infusion site reactions. ..."
"... So, if it does shorten duration, is it worth potential liver damage, respiratory failure and organ impairment? In other words is the cure potentially as bad as the disease. ..."
"... For yet another drug that was supposed to be a game changer, I am unimpressed by its results. The whole mechanism is wrong. A drug with this mechanism would need to be almost a prophylactic for it to be hugely effective. ..."
"... Fauci didn't seem to have any problem cautioning against unwarranted optimism for CQ/HCQ even while DJT was championing the stuff. What is different about this? . ..."
"... So, what did Fauci say about chloroquine? ""We've got to be careful that we don't make that majestic leap to assume that this is a knockout drug. We still need to do the kinds of studies that definitely prove whether any intervention is truly safe and effective," Fauci, who is also a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said during an interview on "Fox & Friends. . . "We don't operate on how you feel, we operate on what evidence and data is," Fauci said, adding that it was "not a very robust study" or "overwhelmingly strong."" (Concha, 2020 Apr 3) ..."
"... Now, what did he say about Remdesivir: "Speaking to reporters from the White House, Fauci said he was told data from the trial showed a "clear-cut positive effect in diminishing time to recover." Fauci said the median time of recovery for patients taking the drug was 11 days, compared with 15 days in the placebo group. He said the mortality benefit of remdesivir "has not yet reached statistical significance." ..."
"... Disappointingly, the lock down seems to have made a number of people irrational. Just a quick post to expound on my Fauci post for those who see the world as binary – ie: black or white. These people think you either support Fauci 100% or 0% and a single criticism of any Fauci statement means 0% support of Fauci. I do not happen to worship at the altar of Fauci or any scientist and recognize all are subject to errors – including myself. I view the world in a more nuanced manner than those with the black/white delusion. I find I can disagree with some things a person says or stands for and agree with some other things they say or do. ..."
"... I am of the opinion that Fauci made a mistake here. The evidence for Remdesiver is nowhere near good enough for it to become the standard of care. ..."
"... On the other hand, watching the White House performance from afar, I can see the administration is dysfunctional and is run by a narcissistic bully, who will publicly turn on anyone who disagrees with them. ..."
"... I believe that is the main thrust of this Orac article – that the evidence for Remdesiver efficacy is sorely lacking. ..."
Remdesivir: Gilead wins with unimpressive results announced by press release On Wednesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci announced positive
results for the antiviral drug remdesivir treating COVID-19. They were unimpressive and, suspiciously, announced by press release
rather than scientific paper. It's all very fishy, but one thing's for sure. Gilead Sciences will make boatloads of money.
I've been writing a lot about the unjustified and
premature hype
over hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug with mild immunosuppressive activity that is also used to treat rheumatoid arthritis
and other autoimmune diseases and how the drug probably doesn't work against COVID-19, despite its being
hyped by President
Trump and his sycophants, toadies, and lackeys on Fox News,
Dr. Mehmet Oz ,
Dr. Phil , Dr. Didier Raoult
, and a
bevy of irresponsible fame seeking doctors who have no idea how to do a proper clinical study.
There are, however, other drugs
being hyped out there, drugs that might actually have a better chance of turning out to be effective treatments for COVID-19. Chief
among these is remdesivir, the experimental antiviral drug being tested by Gilead Sciences.
Remdesivir is an adenosine (a nucleotide) analog that inhibits
viral RNA polymerases. It is incorporated into RNA made by the virus, causing the premature termination of the RNA molecule, thus
interfering with viral replication. The drug was originally developed to treat Ebola and Marburg but was ultimately found to be
ineffective against these viruses . Because it inhibits the replication
of a number of RNA viruses, it was only natural that it would be considered as a possible treatment for COVID-19, and Gilead has
been relentlessly promoting it as such as the company has been working to carry out clinical trials.
White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday that data from a coronavirus drug trial testing Gilead Sciences'
antiviral drug remdesivir showed "quite good news" and sets a new standard of care for Covid-19 patients.
Speaking to reporters from the White House, Fauci said he was told data from the trial showed a "clear-cut positive effect
in diminishing time to recover."
Fauci said the median time of recovery for patients taking the drug was 11 days, compared with 15 days in the placebo group.
He said the mortality benefit of remdesivir "has not yet reached statistical significance."
The results suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the
placebo group, according to a statement from the National Institutes of Health released later Wednesday.
"This will be the standard of care," Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, added. "When
you know a drug works, you have to let people in the placebo group know so they can take it."
My skeptical antennae started twitching immediately, because on the same day a study from China was published in
The Lancet that
was far less impressive. In fact, it was a negative trial. What also got my skeptical antennae all aflutter twitching away was how
the results of the remdesivir trial were announced. Normally, when a study is announced to the press, it's upon publication of the
paper, and the press release is issued either the same day or the evening before publication. As of last night, as I wrote this,
however, the actual paper reporting the results of the clinical trial had not yet been published. As I perused Twitter on Wednesday,
I found even more reasons for skepticism.
So, before I get to the study touted by Dr. Fauci, let's review some history.
Remdesivir: The early days versus COVID-19 (like, you know, three weeks ago)
The first data published on remdesivir was a single-arm uncontrolled trial that somehow got published three weeks ago in
The New England Journal of Medicine . This was
peak COVID-19 publishing, when an uncontrolled case series of patients with severe COVID-19 treated with remdesivir under compassionate
was published in a super high impact journal like NEJM and made headlines as a result. Be that as it may, the case series examined
61 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who had an oxygen saturation of 94% or less while they were breathing room air or
who were receiving oxygen support. They received a 10-day course of remdesivir, consisting of 200 mg given intravenously on day 1,
followed by 100 mg daily for the remaining 9 days of treatment. (Remdesivir is an intravenous drug.) The authors reported clinical
improvement in 68% of evaluable patients:
Of the 61 patients who received at least one dose of remdesivir, data from 8 could not be analyzed (including 7 patients with
no post-treatment data and 1 with a dosing error). Of the 53 patients whose data were analyzed, 22 were in the United States,
22 in Europe or Canada, and 9 in Japan. At baseline, 30 patients (57%) were receiving mechanical ventilation and 4 (8%) were receiving
extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. During a median follow-up of 18 days, 36 patients (68%) had an improvement in oxygen-support
class, including 17 of 30 patients (57%) receiving mechanical ventilation who were extubated. A total of 25 patients (47%) were
discharged, and 7 patients (13%) died; mortality was 18% (6 of 34) among patients receiving invasive ventilation and 5% (1 of
19) among those not receiving invasive ventilation.
The case series also did not collect viral load data to confirm potential antiviral activity in humans or any association between
declines in viral load and clinical improvement. Basically, when you get right down to it, this study was not really much better
than Didier Raoult's crappy
study of his hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination, but that didn't stop the authors from concluding that comparisons with
contemporaneous cohorts "suggest that remdesivir may have clinical benefit in patients with severe Covid-19." In reality, like Raoult's
trials, this trial said nothing about the efficacy of remdesivir against COVID-19 other than that the drug could be given to COVID-19
patients with a reasonable safety profile.
Less than week later, as
related by Derek Lowe , came news that two clinical trials of remdesivir in China, one for
severe disease and one
for moderate disease
had been suspended. (They still are.) Lowe noted that both trials had the notice: "The epidemic of COVID-19 has been controlled well
at present, no eligible patients can be recruited." The apparent explanation was "the stringent inclusion criteria for the trials
– apparently patients had to have no previous therapy with any other experimental agent to enroll, and that eliminates a lot
of people." Around the same time, Adam Feuerstein and Matthew Herper published a story in STAT,
Early peek at data on Gilead coronavirus drug suggests patients are responding to treatment :
The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead's two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people,
113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir.
"The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We've only had two patients perish,"
said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital.
Her comments were made this week during a video discussion about the trial results with other University of Chicago faculty
members. The discussion was recorded and STAT obtained a copy of the video.
Derek Lowe
discussed this story in depth, and I largely agree with him that the leak of the video to STAT was a serious breach of clinical
trial ethics and protocol. (I'm not alone in suspecting that it was almost certainly intentional to jack up Gilead's stock price,
a result that was achieved.) Lowe also noted:
But now that it's out there, let's talk about what's in the leak. Gilead stock jumped like a spawning salmon in after-market
trading on this, and one of the reasons was that that 113 of the 125 patients were classed as having "severe disease". People
ran with the idea that these must have been people on ventilators who were walking out of the hospital, but that is not the case.
As AndyBiotech pointed out on Twitter,
all you had to do was read the trial's exclusion criteria
: patients were not even admitted into the trial if they were on mechanical ventilation. Some will have moved on to ventilation
during the trial, but we don't know how many (the trial protocol has these in a separate group).
Note also that this trial is open-label; both doctors and patients know who is getting what, and note the really key point:
there is no control arm. This is one of the trials mentioned in this post on small-molecule therapies as being the most likely
to read out first, but it's always been clear that the tradeoff for that speed is rigor. The observational paper that was published
on remdesivir in the NEJM had no controls either, of course, and that made it hard to interpret. Scratch that, it made it impossible
to interpret. It will likely be the same with this trial – the comparison is between a five-day course of remdesivir and a ten-day
course, and the primary endpoint is the odds ratio for improvement between the two groups.
Again, these data, such as they are, are no more useful than Didier Raoult's data on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat
COVID-19, but this brings us to the Chinese trial published in
The Lancet on Wednesday.
The Chinese randomized clinical trial
The Chinese trial
published two days ago is the first randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial of remdesivir to treat COVID-19,
but it was also one of the studies halted. Eligible patients were adults admitted to the hospital with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2
whose symptoms had lasted less than 12 days before enrollment and who had an oxygen saturation on room air of 94% or less or a ratio
of arterial oxygen partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen of 300 mm Hg or less (another measure of hypoxia), and radiologically
confirmed pneumonia.
Patients were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to intravenous remdesivir at the same dose as the NIH trial touted
by Dr. Fauci or the same volume of placebo infusions for 10 days and were permitted concomitant use of lopinavir–ritonavir, interferons,
and corticosteroids. The primary endpoint was time to clinical improvement up to day 28, defined at the time from randomization to
the point of a decline of two levels on a six-point ordinal scale of clinical status (from 1=discharged to 6=death) or discharged
alive from hospital, whichever came first. An intention-to-treat analysis was carried out.
Basically, this was a negative trial. Of the 255 patients screened, 237 met the eligibility criteria, and 158 were assigned to
the remdesivir group, with 79 assigned to placebo control. Unfortunately, remdesivir treatment was not associated with a shorter
time to clinical improvement, and mortality was not different between the two groups. Subgroup analysis looking for hypotheses found
that there was a trend towards a shorter duration of symptoms (not statistically significant) in patients treated with remdesivir
who had had symptoms for less than ten days. Most disappointingly, there was no detectable difference in viral load between the remdesivir
groups and the placebo controls. Again, basically this was a negative study with only the barest hint that remdesivir might -- I
repeat, might -- work if administered earlier in the course of COVID-19. That's some pretty thin gruel.
Which brings us to the NIH trial of remdesivir touted by Anthony Fauci.
The NIH press release for its remdesivir trial.
The results of the NIH remdesivir trial can, unfortunately, only be gleaned from the press release and
news stories so far:
For the first time, a major study suggests that an experimental drug works against the new coronavirus, and U.S. government
officials said Wednesday that they would work to make it available to appropriate patients as quickly as possible.
In a study of 1,063 patients sick enough to be hospitalized, Gilead Sciences's remdesivir shortened the time to recovery by
31% -- 11 days on average versus 15 days for those just given usual care, officials said. The drug also might be reducing deaths,
although that's not certain from the partial results revealed so far.
"What it has proven is that a drug can block this virus," the National Institutes of Health's Dr. Anthony Fauci said.
"This will be the standard of care," and any other potential treatments will now have to be tested against or in combination
with remdesivir, he said.
Here is the
press release , posted to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases website:
Hospitalized patients with advanced COVID-19 and lung involvement who received remdesivir recovered faster than similar patients
who received placebo, according to a preliminary data analysis from a randomized, controlled trial involving 1063 patients, which
began on February 21. The trial (known as the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial, or ACTT), sponsored by the National Institute
of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, is the first clinical trial launched in
the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19.
An independent data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) overseeing the trial met on April 27 to review data and shared their
interim analysis with the study team. Based upon their review of the data, they noted that remdesivir was better than placebo
from the perspective of the primary endpoint, time to recovery, a metric often used in influenza trials. Recovery in this study
was defined as being well enough for hospital discharge or returning to normal activity level.
Preliminary results indicate that patients who received remdesivir had a 31% faster time to recovery than those who received
placebo (p<0.001). Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15
days for those who received placebo. Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving
remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (p=0.059).
More detailed information about the trial results, including more comprehensive data, will be available in a forthcoming report.
As part of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's commitment to expediting the development and availability of potential COVID-19
treatments, the agency has been engaged in sustained and ongoing discussions with Gilead Sciences regarding making remdesivir
available to patients as quickly as possible, as appropriate. The trial closed to new enrollments on April 19. NIAID will also
provide an update on the plans for the ACTT trial moving forward. This trial was an adaptive trial designed to incorporate additional
investigative treatments.
As you can see, the difference in mortality was not statistically significantly different, although that could just be because
of inadequate numbers. It's also very important to note the part about the adaptive trial design of this trial, which puts Dr. Fauci's
comment about how remdesivir will become the "standard of care" going forward into the proper context. In this
particular trial , multiple different drugs can be
compared to placebo or standard of care. The idea is that, if a signal of efficacy is found with one drug, that drug becomes "standard
of care" and the trial is adapted to study how adding other experimental drugs compares to the "standard of care." So what Dr. Fauci
meant was that, based on the finding, going forward remdesivir will become the "standard of care" arm for the trial and the experimental
arm will become remdesivir plus another experimental therapeutic. However, given that the FDA is on the
verge
of issuing an emergency use authorization for remdesivir to treat COVID-19, it looks as though remdesivir will become standard-of-care
in general soon.
But back to the results. Derek Lowe observed:
it's worth noting that had there been "clear and substantial evidence of a treatment difference" during the trial that the
DSMB was to have halted the study at that point. We can infer that nothing rose to that level, then: we have a difference, but
not substantial enough to have ended the trial prematurely.
It's also worth noting some things posted on Twitter about the trial. For instance, Waller Gellad noted:
It's very odd that the primary endpoint was changed:
Thread that summarizes my concerns with Remdesivir press release (not science) as well.
Changing the endpoint midtrial this way is like hosting a race for one destination then declaring wherever you end up after
running for an hour is the finish line. https://t.co/XMUXYW3njp
I'll summarize, so that you don't have to scroll through a Twitter thread if you don't want to. As James Heathers and Waller Gellad
noted, the original primary outcome of the trial when it was registered on March 20. The original primary endpoint of the trial was
an 8-point severity scale (death, on ventilator, hospitalized with oxygen, all the way down to discharged with no limits on activity)
but was changed to time to recovery. There's still a similar scale for the secondary endpoints, but no numbers for that were reported.
(Any bets on whether the results are negative?) This change was apparently made on or around April 16.
Gellad also notes:
last thing:
Here is the results table for the negative lancet trial of remdesivir. The highlighted results are what the primary outcome for
the NIH trial was until 2 weeks ago. https://t.co/niQ65zgLF2
It does look very fishy to me. Endpoint or outcome switching, particularly late in a clinical trial is a huge red flag.
Don't get me wrong. There can be legitimate scientific reasons to switch primary endpoints of a trial. as James Heathers
puts it:
Sometimes it becomes clear after you start that the registration is incomplete or wrong. Sometimes you have a better idea after
you start. Sometimes your thinking changes.
Other times, you're trying to cherry-pick the results.
There are also other reasons to question this trial, including how no confidence intervals were reported, that not even an abstract
was published, just a press release with, as Heathers put it, "two results in four lines":
(2) the results in the press release. I call this 'two results, four sentences' – press releases describe the results in incredibly
brief terms, usually the two most positive outcomes w the briefest explanation possible. He's me bitching about it earlier.
https://t.co/FQlaAQaytG
Basically, if you have two "good" results and twenty "bad" or uninterpretable results, what do you do? What are you going to tell
people? The two "good" results, of course!
Gary Schwitzer has
a nice
summary of the negative reactions to the trial and how it was announced.
The bottom line
I remain very suspicious that the NIH study was announced the same day that a negative study out of China of remdesivir was published.
It just seems too convenient. Maybe I'm being overly suspicious. Maybe I'm too suspicious. Maybe I'm falling prey to conspiracy mongering.
However, in the Trump era, when the Trump administration has politicized previously (mostly) apolitical government agencies as never
before, it's hard not to wonder.
Adding to my suspicion is the fact that the study was reported in a press release, rather than being published, which makes me
wonder if the press release was written to counter the negative study from China that would certainly have tanked Gilead's stock
prices. Yes, I know that the press release reported that this decis, apparently the announcement was decided upon after April 27
meeting of the data and safety monitoring board overseeing this trial, but the outcome switching so late in the trial makes me very
suspicious. Yes, the explanation, which should have been in the press release, along with an acknowledgment that the primary outcome/endpoint
had been changed, but wasn't is not unreasonable:
Then there was
this news report in which Fauci claimed that concerns about leaks fueled the announcement:
He expressed concern that leaks of partial information would lead to confusion. Since the White House was not planning a daily
virus briefing, Fauci said he was invited to release the news at a news conference with Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards(D). "It
was purely driven by ethical concerns," Fauci told Reuters in a telephone interview.
"I would love to wait to present it at a scientific meeting, but it's just not in the cards when you have a situation where
the ethical concern about getting the drug to people on placebo dominates the conversation."
An independent data safety and monitoring board, which had looked at the preliminary results of the NIAID trial, determined
it had met its primary goal of reducing hospital stays.
On Tuesday evening, that information was conveyed in a conference call to scientists studying the drug globally.
"There are literally dozens and dozens of investigators around the world," Fauci said. "People were starting to leak it." But
he did not give details of where the unreported data was being shared.
I smell bullshit here. What probably really happened is that he was under enormous pressure to release the results. It was also
unwise to discuss the results with so many scientists until the manuscript reporting the results of the trial had at least been submitted
for publication. I agree with the scientists who had "expected it [the trial data] to be presented simultaneously in a detailed news
release, a briefing at a medical meeting or in a scientific journal, allowing researchers to review the data." I also agree with
Dr. Eric Topol, referring to the Chinese RCT and this one:
"That's the only thing I'll hang my hat on, and that was negative," said Dr. Eric Topol, director and founder of the Scripps
Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California.
He was unimpressed by remdesivir's modest benefit. "It was expected to be a whopping effect," Topol added. "It clearly does not have that."
Indeed, given that the pre-test probability of remdesivir having a significant effect was low, meaning that this trial is probably
just noise:
Unfortunately, by the time you are symptomatic with a virus, you are usually already high/peak viral load. So, when you give
an antiviral to someone who is already ill, the damage from the virus is largely done. It's there in big numbers and in the cells.
Indeed, I'm not only unimpressed with the modest benefit reported, I question whether there really was any benefit at all, particularly
in light of the Chinese trial, which found zero difference in viral load in the remdesivir group.
The whole thing looks damned fishy, and we can't judge the study until it's actually published. Meanwhile, whatever the true reasons
for releasing the study results this way, mission accomplished. The negative effect of the Chinese study on Gilead's stock price
was successfully countered and remdesivir becomes a de facto standard of care for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Worse, no
further trials of remdesivir versus placebo will be possible, because it's been declared that remdesivir "works" against COVID-19
and is the new standard of care! As Mark Hoofnagle put it in a great Twitter thread, that echoes my thoughts:
By the end of the day, reports that FDA is going to emergently approve remdesivir for treatment of COVID.
Gilead gets what they want. No one will want to be in a control arm in further trials and they will argue all future trials
must be noninferiority.
Absolute genius. You have to salute them. On the day a negative trial of their drug is reported, based on a press release they
took over the news cycle, and with some midstream edits to their endpoints their now "positive" trial wins them FDA approval and
a halted trial.
It's worse than that. If remdesivir is now the "standard of care" for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, it now becomes unethical
to randomize them to a placebo group testing ANY new drug for COVID-19. Trials will now have to compare remdesivir alone to remdesivir
plus experimental drug. We'll probably never know now for sure if remdesivir is truly effective against COVID-19.
But Gilead will make billions and billions of dollars.
Drs. Vladimir Zelenko and Stephen Smith have been claiming that hydroxychloroquine is a miracle drug based on anecdotes. Their
shoddy, poorly reported case series are not evidence of efficacy.
President Trump's COVID-19 advisors include Dr. Oz, Rudy Giuliani, and Peter Navarro, the latter an economist who thinks he can
science better than Anthony Fauci. Can science- and evidence-based medicine prevail with respect to hydroxychloroquine and coronavirus?
By Orac Orac is the nom de blog of a humble surgeon/scientist who has an ego just big enough to delude himself that someone,
somewhere might actually give a rodent's posterior about his copious verbal meanderings, but just barely small enough to admit to
himself that few probably will. That surgeon is otherwise known as
David Gorski
...
In long twitter exchange mainly led by James Heathers, has anyone noticed that there are a series of tweets by Didier Raoult ?
One tweet reads:
Could Anthony Fauci explain why the investigators of the NIAID remdesivir trial did change the primary outcome during the
course of the project (16th April)? Removing "death" from primary outcome is a surprising decision.
In a quick search of the web I found the following two:
WHAT ARE SIDE EFFECTS OF REMDESIVIR (RDV)?
In the Ebola trial, researchers noted side effects of remdesivir (RDV) that included:
Increased liver enzyme levels that may indicate possible liver damage
Researchers documented similar increases in liver enzymes in three U.S. COVID-19 patients
The most common adverse effects in studies of remdesivir for COVID-19 include respiratory failure and blood biomarkers of organ
impairment, including low albumin, low potassium, low count of red blood cells, low count of platelets that help with clotting,
and yellow discoloration of the skin. Other reported side effects include gastrointestinal distress, elevated transaminase levels
in the blood (liver enzymes), and infusion site reactions.
Other possible side effects of remdesivir include:
Infusion‐related reactions. Infusion‐related reactions have been seen during a remdesivir infusion or around the time remdesivir
was given.[8] Signs and symptoms of infusion‐related reactions may include: low blood pressure, nausea, vomiting, sweating, and
shivering.
Increases in levels of liver enzymes, seen in abnormal liver blood tests. Increases in levels of liver enzymes have been seen
in people who have received remdesivir, which may be a sign of inflammation or damage to cells in the liver.
So, if it does shorten duration, is it worth potential liver damage, respiratory failure and organ impairment? In other words
is the cure potentially as bad as the disease.
And, as Orac and many commenters have made more than clear, one more example of Trump's government, ignoring science, and jumping
to conclusions.
For yet another drug that was supposed to be a game changer, I am unimpressed by its results. The whole mechanism is wrong. A
drug with this mechanism would need to be almost a prophylactic for it to be hugely effective.
One thing they discovered is that the proteins involved have zinc atoms incorporated into their structure. This won't surprise
any biochemists, as zinc-containing proteins are common. But there's been a steady flow of fringe treatments for the disease --
including some involving chloroquine derivatives -- in which zinc was a key component. We'll have to see whether that changes
now that it's clear that zinc is needed to make copies of the virus (assuming that fact registers at all with the people
prone to promoting fringe therapies).
What is that saying about zinc? I've always heard that zinc was a good thing to have a high intracellular level of it to protect
against viruses besides also being needed to make NO.
So: "Fauci just dropped down a level or two in my estimation of his commitment to rationality."
Let's look at the "Reality": "America needs a federal government that assertively promotes and helps to coordinate that, not one
in which experts like Tony Fauci and Deborah Birx tiptoe around a president's tender ego."
I wouldn't want to be in Fauchi's shoes. If he openly criticizes Trump, he is out and staying in allows him to have some effect.
Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. So, he has to balance his "committment to rationality" to trying to modify/reduce the
insanity of Trump. If he resigned or was fired, could he have more of an influence? Maybe, maybe not. I would not want to be in his
shoes! ! ! Personally, I would probably resign and try to get our media to listen to me. Just standing next to Trump would turn my
stomach.
So, maybe you should live up to your "name" and evaluate "reality" not an idealistic world.
So you wouldn't say what Fauci said and would quit, eh, Joel?
I wouldn't say what Fauci said about "standard of care" which is basically his endorsement of this.
I believe Orac wouldn't make that statement endorsing Remdesivir as the "standard of care".
I don't know of any self-respecting scientist who would make such a statement no matter what the pressure.
If I was pressured by DJT I would object but maybe agree to not make any statement pro or con about the subject – so as to keep my
position and influence but if someone asked me to say something I thought was not true I would not do it and refuse.
. Fauci didn't seem to have any problem cautioning against unwarranted optimism for CQ/HCQ even while DJT was championing the stuff.
What is different about this?
.
You write: "Fauci didn't seem to have any problem cautioning against unwarranted optimism for CQ/HCQ even while DJT was championing
the stuff. What is different about this?"
Yep; but the only studies promoting CQ/HCQ was a fraudulent one in France and an in vitro study.
What about Remdesivir? First it is a nucleic acid analogue designed to directly disrupt replication of the viral genome. Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine
were not even remotely designed to target viruses, though they have a moderate dampening effect on immune reactions, so they work
for autoimmune diseases (e.g., lupus, rheumatoid arthritis); but, as I wrote in a previous exchange, the immune response in an autoimmune
disease compared to a cytokine storm is like comparing 20 mile per hour winds to a category 5 hurricane, 160 mph winds. In addition,
chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine have a large number of mild side-effects and some really serious major ones.
So, what did Fauci say about chloroquine? ""We've got to be careful that we don't make that majestic leap to assume that this
is a knockout drug. We still need to do the kinds of studies that definitely prove whether any intervention is truly safe and effective,"
Fauci, who is also a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said during an interview on "Fox & Friends. . . "We don't
operate on how you feel, we operate on what evidence and data is," Fauci said, adding that it was "not a very robust study" or "overwhelmingly
strong."" (Concha, 2020 Apr 3)
Now, what did he say about Remdesivir: "Speaking to reporters from the White House, Fauci said he was told data from the trial
showed a "clear-cut positive effect in diminishing time to recover." Fauci said the median time of recovery for patients taking the
drug was 11 days, compared with 15 days in the placebo group. He said the mortality benefit of remdesivir "has not yet reached statistical
significance."
The results suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the
placebo group, according to a statement from the National Institutes of Health released later Wednesday. "This will be the standard
of care," Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, added. "When you know a drug works, you have
to let people in the placebo group know so they can take it." "What it has proven is a drug can block this virus," he said. (Lovelace,
2020 Apr 29)
"The data shows that remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery," Fauci said
at the White House on Wednesday. The data he referred to is from a large study of more than 1,000 patients from multiple sites around
the world. Patients either received the drug, called remdesivir, or a placebo.
Dr. Michael Saag, associate dean for global health at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, said the results seemed promising.
Antiviral drugs such as remdesivir tend to work earlier in the course of an illness, so "the thing that I think is important in this
study is the patients had advanced disease," said Saag, who is not involved with any remdesivir trials. (NBC News (2020 Apr 29)
Hospitalized patients with advanced COVID-19 and lung involvement who received remdesivir recovered faster than similar patients
who received placebo, according to a preliminary data analysis from a randomized, controlled trial involving 1063 patients, which
began on February 21. The trial (known as the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial, or ACTT), sponsored by the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, is the first clinical trial launched in the United
States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19.
An independent data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) overseeing the trial met on April 27 to review data and shared their interim
analysis with the study team. Based upon their review of the data, they noted that remdesivir was better than placebo from the perspective
of the primary endpoint, time to recovery, a metric often used in influenza trials [my emphasis]. Recovery in this study was defined
as being well enough for hospital discharge or returning to normal activity level. . .
Results also suggested a survival benefit, with a mortality rate of 8.0% for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the
placebo group (p=0.059). the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6% for the placebo group (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases (2020 Apr 29).
So, first I'd bet you don't understand how nucleic acid analogues work?
Second, though I tend not to rely on one study, this one was fairly large and the shortening of time to recovery was clinically significant,
"defined as being well enough for hospital discharge or returning to normal activity level." And Dr. Michael Saag: "Antiviral drugs
such as remdesivir tend to work earlier in the course of an illness, so "the thing that I think is important in this study is the
patients had advanced disease,"
Standard of Care is more a legal definition than a clinical one. Basically it reduces risk of malpractice lawsuits.
While I probably would not have called it "standard of care", instead clearly stating that based on the recent trial, it is currently
the best we have to offer or something to that effect.
So, Fauci didn't call it a cure, didn't claim it reduced mortality, though indications it did, and based on over 1,000 patients,
found it reduced hospitalization and return to normal life by a clinically significant margin, the standard used for flu studies.
Again, I would have been more cautious in my working; but your rank attack on a man who knows more about infectious diseases that
you, I, and many others, a man who has dedicated his life to preventing and dealing with them is just plain sickening. Your black
and white view of Fauci is how antivaccinationists and other adherers to unscience see the world. And an MPH probably means a couple
of lower level epidemiology courses. So, the old saying: A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, coupled with a personality that
prefers a dichotomous world is very very problematic.
Only time and further studies will tell if Remdesivir really does shorten recovery time and, perhaps, also lowers mortality. Right
now, we have nothing else and I wouldn't jump on something because of this; but the over 1,000 patient study isn't nothing.
Just to be clear, Orac's critique is valid; but, as he says, by this time one becomes perhaps overly skeptical given Trump's insanity.
How cautious should Fauci have been? People are becoming desperate. The risks from Remdesivir are extremely low, so currently, either
use it or continue as is.
If there were significant risks and the one study had been one a much smaller group, the scales would be
different. And, though Orac is right they changed the outcome points, as mentioned, shortening of recovery time is a criterion used
for treatment of flu, so, though not, perhaps, the best end-point, it is certainly not the same as some studies using endpoints such
as lowered cholesterol without looking at deaths. They did look at deaths and though not significant, in the right direction. By
the way, do you even understand significance levels? Though only one study, p=0.059 isn't far from p=0.05.
References:
Concha, Joe (2020 Apr 3). Fauci warns there's no 'strong' evidence anti-malaria drug works on coronavirus
Lovelace, Berkeley (2020 Apr 29). Remdesivir coronavirus drug trial: Dr. Fauci says it will set new standard of care. CNBC
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (2020 Apr 29). NIH Clinical Trial Shows Remdesivir Accelerates Recovery
from Advanced COVID-19
Disappointingly, the lock down seems to have made a number of people irrational. Just a quick post to expound on my Fauci post
for those who see the world as binary – ie: black or white. These people think you either support Fauci 100% or 0% and a single criticism
of any Fauci statement means 0% support of Fauci. I do not happen to worship at the altar of Fauci or any scientist and recognize
all are subject to errors – including myself. I view the world in a more nuanced manner than those with the black/white delusion.
I find I can disagree with some things a person says or stands for and agree with some other things they say or do.
My criticism of Fauci in regard to his remdesivir endorsement does not mean I have 0% support for Fauci it means that with that
statement and some others my positive view of him is now ~80% but not 100% and I will have to check up on what he is endorsing
to make sure that I agree with it just like I do with any other scientist/person.
BTW – If some were to check my Disqus account history (Reality022) you would find posts strongly defending Fauci against the Loony
Libertarians who seem to think he is the debil.
.
Now to a second point:
There appears to be a group of Fauci apologists who, to excuse Fauci's statement, say it is due to 'pressure from Trump/the administration'.
I do not subscribe to this excuse and think it is a horrible thing to say for 2 reasons:
1) There is absolutely no evidence that this statement was made under pressure. That idea is totally invented in the minds of
the Fauci apologists in their attempt to exonerate Fauci.
2) It is a horrible thing to say about Fauci. I take him at his word. If he said it he meant it. The excuse actually means that
Fauci's word is so untrustworthy that he can be pressured into being dishonest about his scientific opinions and only the apologists
can tell us when he is lying or actually relating his honest view. The apologists are basically saying Fauci is dishonest.
I have much more respect for the man and believe he is honest but in this case merely wrong.
.
That is all I'm going to say about this subject as some people are going off the rails with their binary view of the world. (snicker)
And you continue to miss the point that "Standard of Care" is mainly a legal term. Are you that dense? It is you who stated your
opinion of Fauci sank, so your binary view of the world. Try reading my other comments, closely, maybe you will learn something;
but I doubt it. "Reality", lacks reality testing.
Reply
I tend to agree. I am of the opinion that Fauci made a mistake here. The evidence for Remdesiver is nowhere near good enough
for it to become the standard of care. But then I am not the one having to make these decisions under difficult circumstances.
I don't pretend to understand why Fauci might have made the comment, so don't see a lot of point in speculating about it.
On the other hand, watching the White House performance from afar, I can see the administration is dysfunctional and is run by
a narcissistic bully, who will publicly turn on anyone who disagrees with them. I also see there are people within and around the
White House who are happy to tell whatever lies they think Trump wants to hear, either through fear or hope for advancement. I understand
why people would add 2 and 2 and come up with 5.
Chris Preston said, "I am of the opinion that Fauci made a mistake here. The evidence for Remdesiver is nowhere near good enough
for it to become the standard of care."
I believe that is the main thrust of this Orac article – that the evidence for Remdesiver efficacy is sorely lacking.
Quoting Orac's article above: "In reality, like Raoult's trials, this trial said nothing about the efficacy of remdesivir against
COVID-19 other than that the drug could be given to COVID-19 patients with a reasonable safety profile."
.
I agree with your 2nd paragraph and think that Fauci is not one of those administration toadies and is being honest and has merely
made a mistake perhaps brought about through grasping-at-straws desperation as described in a current SBM article.
I, as well, do not know why Fauci made the statement but to me it is very disrespectful of the man to use as an excuse that he
is dishonest enough to lie like a toady when pressured by Trump.
I think we are essentially in agreement about this matter.
Have fun.
re dysfunctional administration.. narcissistic bully et al
It seems that the aforementioned will now " wind down" the Covid task force ( The Hill reports) but Drs Fauci and Birx
will still be involved in some capacity.
AS though the battle is already won. Hah! CA and the NY area are reporting lower numbers of deaths and hospital admissions BUT
whilst
other areas are increasing theirs.
Maybe the Orange One imagines that if we discuss Covid less, people will think it's gone, go back to work, buy stuff and the economy
will flourish. Ignore it and it'll go away. Wishful thinking as usual.
Apparently you lack understanding of English. As I explained even grandfathered in medical treatments with no hard scientific
evidence are considered the standard of care, that is, if a doctor uses them he/she lessens risk of lawsuits. Standard of care doesn't
mean a high level of scientific validity.
I guess I am wasting my time. Think of it this way, if allowed for compassionate use advised by ones doctor, then doctor may not
be protected against lawsuits. Unfortunately, as something I read a long time ago, even in Colonial times Americans would rather
sue than eat breakfast. Just one more sickness of American exceptionalism, so maybe, just maybe, all Fauci was doing was trying to
reduce this risk.
Not to mention that CDC closed the lab. So CDC is not part of great vaccine conspiracy, after all. Huge news, I would say.
One could mention, too, that Johnson & Johnson get COVID vaccine contract. So Dorit Reiss' plots are not very effective, ater
all. Reply
You write: Hmm . Problems with the Wuhan Lab and those nasty bats back in 2018. Just another coincidence, I suppose.
Weird. So many coincidences."
From a recent article in the Atlantic:
scientists have also identified about 500 other coronaviruses among China's many bat species. "There will be many more
-- I think it's safe to say tens of thousands," says Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance, who has led that work. Laboratory
experiments show that some of these new viruses could potentially infect humans. SARS-CoV-2 likely came from a bat, too.
It seems unlikely that a random bat virus should somehow jump into a susceptible human. But when you consider millions
of people, in regular contact with millions of bats, which carry tens of thousands of new viruses, vanishingly improbable
events become probable ones. In 2015, Daszak's team found that 3 percent of people from four Chinese villages that are close
to bat caves had antibodies that indicated a previous encounter with SARS-like coronaviruses. "Bats fly out every night
over their houses.
Some of them shelter from rain in caves, or collect guano for fertilizer," Daszak says. "If you extrapolate up to the
rural population, across the region where the bats that carry these viruses live, you're talking 1 [million] to 7 million
people a year exposed." Most of these infections likely go nowhere. It takes just one to trigger an epidemic.
Note. he links to peer-reviewed journal articles. So, as the second paragraph makes clear, antibodies to bat coronaviruses
exist in the population, etc. Add this to the sequencing of the genome that shows just how close it is to the 2003 SARS
corona virus and to bat coronaviruses and, as usual, your moronic "coincidences" just lacks any validity.
Note also that his article links to many other good ones.
As I've written before, nature is quite capable of creating really nasty microbes.
Oh this guy needs a dishonorable mention, Harvard traitor, Charles Leiber. "has received more than $15,000,000 in grant
funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Department of Defense (DOD)." Our tax dollars hard at work for
this POS.
This is our guy: Charles M. Lieber Semiconductor nanowires: A platform for nanoscience and nanotechnology MRS Bulletin
Volume 36, Issue 12 (Laser micro- and nanofabrication of biomaterials)December 2011 , pp. 1052-1063 DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1557/mrs.2011.26 So COVID 19 was not involved. One should indeed not serve two masters, DOD and a Chinese university
Reply
Note that he links to a number of excellent articles, including the two that the following is based on:
"scientists have also identified about 500 other coronaviruses among China's many bat species. "There will be
many more -- I think it's safe to say tens of thousands," says Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance, who has
led that work. Laboratory experiments show that some of these new viruses could potentially infect humans. SARS-CoV-2
likely came from a bat, too.
It seems unlikely that a random bat virus should somehow jump into a susceptible human. But when you consider
millions of people, in regular contact with millions of bats, which carry tens of thousands of new viruses, vanishingly
improbable events become probable ones. In 2015, Daszak's team found that 3 percent of people from four Chinese
villages that are close to bat caves had antibodies that indicated a previous encounter with SARS-like coronaviruses.
"Bats fly out every night over their houses. Some of them shelter from rain in caves, or collect guano for fertilizer,"
Daszak says. "If you extrapolate up to the rural population, across the region where the bats that carry these
viruses live, you're talking 1 [million] to 7 million people a year exposed." Most of these infections likely go
nowhere. It takes just one to trigger an epidemic."
So, 3 percent of people had antibodies to bat corona viruses. As the above explains, it is quite probable that
the current virus came from someone infected by a bat. Now, since sequencing of the current SARS-Cov-2 has found
its genome quite close to the 2003 SARS virus and to several bat coronavirus genomes, goes against your sick need
to blame the Chinese. A coincidence is not even close to any type of proof, except in the mind of a moron like
you looking to place blame. And there is a great book on "coincidences": David J. Hand (2014). "The Improbability
Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day." Basically, what someone might think is
a rare coincidence isn't.
And, the major blame for what is happening in the U.S. is a combination of Trump and overall American unappreciation
for Public Health and, thus, pandemic preparedness. When it comes to cutting funding, first to go.
I realize that real research, logic, etc. have NO effect on moron's like you; but, hopefully, others monitoring
this exchange are open-minded.
And as Aarno pointed out, you attacked someone who had nothing to do with COVID. He worked with the Wuhan Institute
of Technology; yep, in Wuhan and that's it. It's a large city dimwit. More importantly, he has been charged, not
found guilty. I realize that the old adage innocent until proven guilty doesn't apply to anyone you chose to attack.
You just don't know when to stop. YOU ARE DESPICABLE!
Reply
Fears that the coronavirus would mutate into a more dangerous strain appear to have been
borne out, as research has identified that a new, more contagious strain of SARS-CoV-2 has
become the dominant form worldwide. The new strain, which has been dubbed 'Spike D614G' has
been proliferating in Europe since at least mid-February, and spread to become the dominant
form during the month of March. It is far more contagious than the original strain which
emerged from Wuhan, for reasons as yet unknown.
Wherever it emerged it became dominant very quickly, and in some countries it became the
only common strain within weeks. The paper notes that the
rapid global spread of the coronavirus has provided it with "ample opportunity for natural
selection to act upon rare but favorable mutations.'' Furthermore, if the virus does not
wane away as the weather warms in summer there will be nothing to stop it mutating into more
and more strains.
Warning call
The research , which was
carried out by a joint American and British team led by Los Alamos National Laboratory, has
been released ahead of peer review as 'an early warning' to other researchers. As it
stands, scientists studying the coronavirus around the world may be analysing the genetic
sequence of the older strain, and therefore it is crucial that they collaborate with this team
to get the latest information. "We cannot afford to be blindsided as we move vaccines and
antibodies into clinical testing," the lead author Dr Bette Korber, known for her work on
HIV, said.
Because the paper has not yet been peer-reviewed, it has been published online on the server
BioRxiv. However, the reputations of the scientists involved suggest that the findings are
sound and must be taken with the utmost seriousness -- the report is 33 pages long, and short
on laughs. "This is hard news,'' said Korber of the findings.
The scientists' methodology involved running computer analysis of over 6,000 coronavirus DNA
sequences collected from around the world. Although they remark that "observed diversity
among pandemic SARS-CoV-2 sequences is low'' there were no fewer than 14 different
mutations in the Spike protein sequences, just one of which is the strain that has everybody
worried.
This is the strain with the D614G mutation, which is probably causing the increased
contagiousness. The mutation affects the 'Spike proteins' on the outside of the virus, which
allow the virus to invade human cells. For this reason, these spikes have until now been the
main target of those trying to design vaccines or antiviral drugs to combat the virus. There
are currently at least 62 vaccines in development, and most of these are focused on the Spike
proteins.
Wasted efforts
Although there is not really any good news here, this may not be as bad as it sounds. There
is at present no suggestion that Spike D614G is any more deadly than the original. The British
team calculated that people were no more likely to be hospitalized by it, although they did
seem to have higher viral loads (more of the virus in their body).
But even if Spike D614G is not meaningfully different from the old strain, it does not mean
that nothing has changed. The problems introduced by multiple forms of a virus have everything
to do with immunity and vaccination. If a person had contracted and been ill with one strain,
that would still be no guarantee of immunity to another. Epidemiologists could be left every
winter having to guess what the commonest strain of coronavirus will be, as they do with the
flu.
Furthermore, the development of a vaccine relies on designing the antibodies to match
perfectly to the specific 'Spikes' on the outside of the virus. If these are mutated, any
potential vaccine might not be specific enough to target that strain. Receiving the vaccine
would provide no guarantee of immunity. This possibility is especially worrying to the study's
authors.
The authors have also been led to speculate that the wildly different outbreaks experienced
in different regions could be down to different strains. Spike D614G hit Italy in early
February, probably around the same time as the older strain hit there. Italy has been one of
Europe's worst affected countries.
And in America, just a few days after the first cases were reported in New York, Spike D614G
was the dominant form there. Contrasting New York City with the relatively mild outbreak on
America's West Coast suggests that different strains could be at play. No matter what details
transpire, it's clear that in a world with multiple strains of coronavirus, developing vaccines
or treatments is only going to get harder.
@Kratoklastes ory tract that there might even be a second receptor that the virus could
use to launch its attack.
Even more troubling is the fact that SARS-COV-2 seems to make use of the enzyme furin from
the host to cleave the viral spike protein. This is worrying, researchers say, because furin
is abundant in the respiratory tract and found throughout the body.
It is used by other formidable viruses, including HIV, influenza, dengue and Ebola to
enter cells. By contrast, the cleavage molecules used by SARS-CoV are much less common and
not as effective
I do not think that Covid-19 is 'just a flu' and I think that the panic in Wuhan started in
the next microsecond after they had decoded the [warlike!] spike. rgds
A new study from Los
Alamos National Laboratory has revealed a new, now-dominant strain of the coronavirus which
appears to be more contagious , according to the authors. Meanwhile, doctors in the United
States are wondering if the harder-hit East Coast is being hit with a different version of the
virus than the West Coast.
Emerging in early February, the new strain migrated from Europe to the East Coast of the
United States, where it became the dominant strain across the world beginning in mid-March.
Wherever the new strain has appeared, it's quickly infected far more people than earlier
strains which emerged from Wuhan, China. Within weeks it became the most prevalent strain in
some nations.
... ... ...
Emerging in early February, the new strain migrated from Europe to the East
Coast of the United States, where it became the dominant strain across the world beginning in
mid-March. Wherever the new strain has appeared, it's quickly infected far more people than
earlier strains which emerged from Wuhan, China. Within weeks it became the most prevalent
strain in some nations.
In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after
a first bout with the disease , the report warned.
The 33-page report was posted
Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer
reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines
or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier
strains and might not be effective against the new one . - LA Times
(via Yahoo)
According to the report, fourteen mutations have been identified in the spike proteins of
SARS-CoV-2 , the protrusions on the exterior of the virus which make up its namesake 'corona.'
The report was based on a computational analysis of more than 6,000 coronavirus samples from
around the world, collected by the Germany-based Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza
Data.
Assisted by scientists at Duke University and the University of Sheffield in England, the
Los Alamos team focused on a mutation called D614G, which controls changes in spike
proteins.
"The story is worrying, as we see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and
over the month of March becoming the dominant pandemic form," said lead author Bette Korber, a
Los Alamos computational biologist. "When viruses with this mutation enter a population, they
rapidly begin to take over the local epidemic, thus they are more transmissible." The new
strain first appeared in Italy, almost at the same time as the original Wuhan strain appeared,
according to the report. By March 15, the mutated strain was dominant. The same was seen in New
York, which was hit by the original virus around March 15, but was overwhelmed by the new
strain within days.
The authors also warn that if the pandemic doesn't wind down during the summer as most
viruses do, it could undergo further mutations right as the first medical treatments and
vaccines - should the adhere to ambitious timelines we've been promised - begin to roll
out.
" We cannot afford to be blindsided as we move vaccines and antibodies into clinical testing
," Korber added on Facebook. "Please be encouraged by knowing the global scientific community
is on this, and we are cooperating with each other in ways I have never seen in my 30 years as
a scientist."
David
Montefiori , a Duke University scientist who worked on the report said it is the first to
document a mutation in the coronavirus that appears to make it more infectious.
Although the researchers don't yet know the details about how the mutated spike behaves
inside the body , it's clearly doing something that gives it an evolutionary advantage over
its predecessor and is fueling its rapid spread. One scientist called it a "classic case of
Darwinian evolution."
" D614G is increasing in frequency at an alarming rate , indicating a fitness advantage
relative to the original Wuhan strain that enables more rapid spread," the study said.
Different strains, different effects?
As the Times notes, doctors in the United States have begun to question whether new strains
of the virus could account for differences in how it affects different people , according to UC
San Francisco professor Alan Wu, who runs the clinical chemistry and toxicology laboratories at
SF General Hospital.
According to Wu, medical experts have speculated in recent weeks that at least two strains
of coronavirus were circulating in the US - one prevalent on the East Coast and one on the West
Coast.
"We are looking to identify the mutation," said Wu, who highlighted that his hospital has
only had a few fatalities out of the hundreds of cases it's treated, which is "quite a
different story than we are hearing from New York."
The Los Alamos study does not indicate that the new version of the virus is more lethal
than the original. People infected with the mutated strain appear to have higher viral loads.
But the study's authors from the University of Sheffield found that among a local sample of
447 patients, hospitalization rates were about the same for people infected with either virus
version.
Even if the new strain is no more dangerous than the others, it could still complicate
efforts to bring the pandemic under control . That would be an issue if the mutation makes
the virus so different from earlier strains that people who have immunity to them would not
be immune to the new version.
And if the mutation makes it back to those who have already had COVID-19, it would make
"individuals susceptible to a second infection," according to the authors.
"... Originally published at The Conversation ..."
"... Editor's Note: As researchers try to find treatments and create a vaccine for COVID-19, doctors and others on the front lines continue to find perplexing symptoms. And the disease itself has unpredictable effects on various people. Dr. William Petri, a professor of medicine at the University of Virginia Medical School, answers questions about these confusing findings. ..."
"... Even before symptoms arise ..."
"... Differences in susceptibility to a virus is one of the main working hypotheses regarding the disease Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (a.k.a. myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), and systemic exertion intolerance disease (SEID). ..."
"... It is possible that the virus is spreading within crowded and substandard apartment complexes. One possible mechanism? Toilets, as an outbreak of SARs in 2003 demonstrated: https://www.cnn.com/2013/02/21/world/asia/sars-amoy-gardens/index.html ..."
"... In addition in poorly maintained buildings just going out in the hallways to put out your garbage, for example, might well expose a home bound residents to viruses lingering on common surfaces. ..."
"... The city of Hong Kong is even more crowded than New York, but last I checked its virus deaths and hospitalizations were much lower. ..."
"... This link has the slides Cuomo used plus more details: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-gov-cuomo-says-its-shocking-most-new-coronavirus-hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html ..."
"... some aspect of their domiciles, such as plumbing or ventilation; or are they permitting non-household individuals to visit them. ..."
"... It would be interesting to see if there is a connection between the virus and apartments/co-living. ..."
"... Indians and Pakistani's in particular seem to have been hit very hard in the UK, and yet the same can't be said in their home countries. ..."
"... The drug, made by the US company Gilead Sciences, is an antiviral that was trialled in Ebola, but which failed to show benefits in Africa. ..."
"... Here is a study on an early transmission site in China, where incidents of infection seem to correlate to ventilated air flow in a restaurant: COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article ..."
"... Here is a not-yet-reviewed preprint of a study of two buses transporting attendees to and from an event in China. One bus (#2) had a suspected "index patient" (IP), the other didn't. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1255579524047220741 ..."
"... Interestingly, the conference itself produced few further cases, these were all traced to prolonged interactions with the IP. Generally with viruses, some critical mass of virions must accumulate in sufficient number to produce infection, and total net exposure may approximately correlate with severity. Untreated recirculated air bearing virus-laden droplets may lead to repeated exposure and increase concentration of virions in individuals. ..."
Yves here. While a list of
coronavirus "known unknowns" is useful, I imagine most readers would have focused on other
questions, like "When will we know how much if any immunity you get from contracting the
virus?" However, this article likely reflects issues that seem to be coming up in layperson
discussions .which in turn reflects the informational nuggets that attract media attention.
Editor's Note: As researchers try to find treatments and create a vaccine for COVID-19,
doctors and others on the front lines continue to find perplexing symptoms. And the disease
itself has unpredictable effects on various people. Dr. William Petri, a professor of medicine
at the University of Virginia Medical School, answers questions about these confusing
findings.
Some evidence suggests that patients experience low oxygen saturation days before they
appear in the ER. If so, is there a way to treat patients earlier?
Even before
symptoms arise, people infected with SARS-CoV-2 show damage to their lungs. This is
likely why low oxygen saturation – that is, below-normal oxygen levels in their blood
– occurs before the patient goes to the ER . Restoring those levels to normal is
presumed, though not proven, to be beneficial; giving patients supplemental oxygen via a nasal
cannula, a flexible tube that delivers oxygen, placed just inside the nostrils, will restore
oxygen to normal levels unless disease worsens to the extent that mechanical ventilation is
needed.
Young adults are having strokes with COVID-19. Does this suggest the illness is more of a
vascular disease than a lung disease in that age group ?
COVID-19 can be a devastating disease to multiple organs and systems in the body, including
the vascular and immune systems. A lung infection
is the primary cause of disease and death. There are examples of the clotting system being
activated and causing strokes, perhaps caused by an immune
system responding abnormally to COVID-19
.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently updated its official list of
symptoms. Does this suggest anything unusual about COVID-19?
This new information is due to a greater number of infected individuals being
studied . The update simply reflects a better understanding of the full spectrum of illness
due to COVID-19, from asymptomatic to presymptomatic to severe and fatal infections.
How can so many people experience such mild symptoms and others quickly die from it?
One of the most fascinating aspects of these diseases is the huge difference that
individuals experience with an infection. In our own research, we have found that many children
in the U.S. infected with cryptosporidia have no symptoms, yet this
parasite is a major killer of infants in the developing world. After an infection of
SARS-CoV-2, the severity of the illness is likely due in part to how the patient's immune
system responds; an overzealous immune response may cause death through what is called
colloquially a "
cytokine storm. ." We do not know yet if cytokine storms occur more in one group than
another – for example, older versus younger.
The disease appears now to affect various other organs – heart and kidney, for
example. What does this suggest?
What we know most clearly is that infection starts only in human cells with the ACE2
receptor – that is, in a cell that is capable of receiving the virus. That is present not
only in the lungs, but in other cells as well, including those in the intestine and in the
nasal mucosa, which lines the nasal cavity. When those cells are infected, the immune system is
activated. A consequence is that both the heart and kidney are affected.
Why are some countries not experiencing as much COVID-19 as the U.S., Europe and China?
I think it's too early in the pandemic to know if certain countries or populations are
relatively less susceptible. The younger overall age of a population could be a primary factor.
Or perhaps the virus, so far at least, has not had time to spread more widely in these
countries.
The thing about this virus is that it seems to be the Swiss Army knife of the virus world.
Instead of a simple virus, as time goes along you find out that it has all sorts of weird and
damaging effects in all sorts of places. And that just because you get it does not mean that
the won't get the next strain.
We aren't even sure how to treat it and financial interest are clouding the search for a
treatment. It is like we just can't get a handle on just what this virus really is or just
what it does to the human body.
Differences in susceptibility to a virus is one of the main working hypotheses regarding
the disease Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (a.k.a. myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), and systemic
exertion intolerance disease (SEID).
The assumption is that the symptoms represent a relatively rare immune system
over-reaction in a relatively small percentage of the population to a viruses that in the
vast majority of persons is part of their normal viral load producing no symptoms.
Yet another puzzling note on Coronavirus transmission. Sixty-six percent of coronavirus
hospital admissions in New York in a recent study cited by Gov. Cuomo, were people who had
been staying home. Most of the cases were elderly, and either retired or unemployed. The vast
majority had other conditions. And African-Americans and Hispanics were disproportionately
affected. My apologies for not linking to the original study–I'm still trying to track
it down.
In addition in poorly maintained buildings just going out in the hallways to put out
your garbage, for example, might well expose a home bound residents to viruses lingering on
common surfaces.
Hong Kong and New York are completely different on so many levels apart from population
density. The differences are more instructive than the similarities. Hong Kong had a
devastating experience with the SARs coronovirus epidemic in 2003 so they had a much clearer
idea what they were dealing with; much of the early response (masks, increased social
hygiene) was a bottom up response by people who had gone through it before.
'"Much of this comes down to what you do to protect yourself. Everything is closed down,
government has done everything it could, society has done everything it could. Now it's up to
you," Cuomo said.'
"How can so many people experience such mild symptoms and others quickly die from it?"
There seems to be another possibility, that SARS-CoV-2 can infect both the upper
respiratory tract (like the coronavirus responsible for the common cold) and the lower
respiratory tract, eventually causing pneumonia (like the SARS-CoV)
This is an alarming development, not least because anti lockdown GOP and Libertarian types
have jumped on it to argue that the lockdowns are misguided. The news item raises many
questions, such as, are the afflicted individuals getting the virus from groceries; some
aspect of their domiciles, such as plumbing or ventilation; or are they permitting
non-household individuals to visit them. Obviously, more detailed data are needed.
It would be interesting to see if there is a connection between the virus and
apartments/co-living.
The one thing for sure is that this virus is extremely contagious for those who are
vulnerable. A colleague of mine cocooned himself with his two elderly parents in their
detached suburban house at the very beginning of this, back in late February (he could see it
coming). I know he was very cautious in order to protect them. But both his parents died from
it over the last 2 weeks, and he is only just recovering from it. So far as I know, he has no
idea how the infection got into the house.
Is the address data for the death available? It would be interesting to look for correlation between Covid deaths and the ages of the
apartment complex.
We have been isolating since mid- March. All food delivered and disinfected, post
heat-treated. Never eaten a healthier diet or taken more vitamins. Been out (beach and moor)
just a handful of times, no contact, always hand sanitizer etc.
Nevertheless, still had three colds!
Viruses are damn infectious.
Also, pace the Kawasaki-like syndrome in children putatively linked to sars-cov-2, true
Kawasaki syndrome has no known causal agent but it is believed to be infectious in origin
because it is reliably linked to wind: when it blows from central Asia, cases spike in Japan
and Hawaii.
Could Sars-cov-2 be hitching a ride on the wind / pollen and infecting people long
distance?
"It is possible that the virus is spreading within crowded and substandard apartment
complexes. One possible mechanism? Toilets, as an outbreak of SARs in 2003 demonstrated"
brought to mind one of the possible causes among my community (field workers). porta
pottys are badly maintained as well as in short supply. among the many hazards, also particle
board living quarters where people sleep in shifts.
you're welcome Hana M.
also, along similar lines a group of us here in oakland (with some city council buy in) are
asking for a black new deal dealing with covid-19. demands are specific as well as linked to
available funding. i'll share them if ur interested.
We've been having groceries and other items delivered; one just arrived. This leads to a
big disinfecting operation, focused on containers, sacks, etc. I even wash all the veggies
before bringing them in. It's more trouble than doing the shopping was, but so far it's
worked. We're healthy so far, salt over shoulder.
Fortunately there's minimal infection here, but it is present.
I'm just thinking if you DON'T disinfect the packaging and then your hands, you might well
introduce the virus.
Indeed, two weeks after a lockdown most hospitalizations must be originated in contagions
inside houses or residential buildings where most direct or indirect contacts occur. This
suggests that fomites-led contagions are important in Covid-19 transmission. During a
lockdown, with very few getting in and out one should basically beware about touching things
like doors, elevator buttons, or light switches rather than breathing contaminated air. In
buildings with wealthy residents someone will be paid to keep all these surfaces clean once
or twice a day but in less wealthy sites it has to be done by oneself.
> . . . Sixty-six percent of coronavirus hospital admissions in New York in a recent
study cited by Gov. Cuomo, were people who had been staying home.
Anyone check if there is a stack of empty Amazon boxes in the corner? Every one of their
warehouses has infected workers, and we all know how much people like to push the buy button
and crack that whip.
I had a thought yesterday, and it probably has nothing to do with COVID19, but remember
the vaping injuries to young people last year? What if those were early infections
transmitted via infected vape devices or accessories?
Points against this being true: didn't appear to be any spread among medical personnel
treating the vape injury population.
Final verdict if I remember right was some form of vitamin e being in the vape liquid.
Points in favor: I thought certain quarters were not satisfied with the vit e
explanation. Just wild speculation on my part, but interesting idea, no?
It is actually now appearing to be the opposite- smoking (and/or nicotine) is something of
a prophylactic. There have been several links floating around here discussing this. Not sure
how definite the conclusions though.
Also, I am untrained in any of this stuff, though have been following, but it seems that
something that hits a small majority of people very hard, while so many seem to not even know
they have it, says to me it's some specific genetic issue.
Strangely enough, one possible explanation of why ethnic minorities are more susceptible
to Corona virus is the same reason that Northern Europeans seem to have greater resistance to
HIV. Corona virus and HIV both are single-stranded RNA viruses. (And why remdesivir,
effective against Ebola [a double-stranded RNA virus] is also showing effectiveness against
Corona virus).
If you are alive today and have Northern European ancestry, they were quite likely
survivors of the Black Death with a mutation that disables CCR-5 . It's Evolution 101.
Africa, Asia and the Americas were never exposed to the plague with the same virulence
that Northern Europe was, and thus populations there did not develop the same level of of
immunity that has lingered in people with Northern European ancestry.
As this is already a plausible theory for HIV, I have been unable to find the same
research on Coronavirus as to whether people who are immune to it somehow have similarly
disabled receptors on ACE-2.
There are many good books on the Black Plague of 1347 and how it originated and spread.
The most common theory is that it came with the Huns as they attacked shipping ports on the
Black Sea which were connected to the overland shipping routes to China. Yes, Europe had
trade with the Orient before the Portuguese rounded Africa. And then the ships in the Black
Sea started bringing it west to ports in Italy and beyond.
For a simple yet historically accepted theory of the Black Plague, there is a well done
course on Great Courses Plus, as well as a ton of written histories. Just search your
favorite bookstore.
By "Huns" do you mean Mongols? The disease is endemic to the grasslands of Mongolia and
also the Western United States. Supposedly Genoese traders brought it to Constantinople from
their ports in the Crimea, I thought.
Yes, it is probably more correct to call them Mongols because that is who they were
fighting under, although some of the midieval historians that I have been reading called them
Tartars and Huns, based on what tribes they belonged to. And Caffa, the city where the plague
probably got its foothold, was both in Crimea and a port on the Black Sea. And yes, it did
strike Constantinople first but since the topic was Europe proper, I just stated that ships
brought it to Italy.
I'm not really convinced – for one thing I'd always understood that the Black Death
did hit many other populations, they just weren't recorded so well (I can stand corrected by
this, I don't know the latest research). It also doesn't explain why so far the home
countries of those ethnicities that have been hit so hard in the west – East Asians,
Iranians, SE Asians, have so far not been hit so hard by Covid. Indians and Pakistani's in
particular seem to have been hit very hard in the UK, and yet the same can't be said in their
home countries. This is why I suspect that a mix of socio economic (there is evidence that
non-white healthcare workers are more likely to be put on the frontline), plus
dietary/vitamin D related explanations may be stronger.
East Asians, Iranians, SE Asians, have so far not been hit so hard by Covid. Indians and
Pakistani's in particular seem to have been hit very hard in the UK, and yet the same can't
be said in their home countries.
Ambient Temperatures are very different, and there are some reports of less virulence in
hotter climates.
Iran and a large chunk of Pakistan is actually quite cold in winter and early Spring.
Tehran temperatures only went above a max of 20C in the last 2 weeks or so. Much of the
temperature range of that region is not all that different from the inland cities of northern
Italy and Spain.
Indians and Pakistani's in particular seem to have been hit very hard in the UK, and
yet the same can't be said in their home countries.
I wonder, are there differenced betw first or second generation immigrants? Age groups?
Another factor that seems to correlate is vaccination for tuberculosis. The BCG vaccine
(which is the only tuberculosis vaccine, although there are several strains and manufacturers
of it) is mandatory in a number of countries, including India and Pakistan. Some countries
never did it, and others have ended or limited their TB vaccination programs as cases of TB
diminished.
Group 1: Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Canada and the US never universally vaccinated
for TB.
Group 2: The UK, Australia, New Zealand, Equador, and most of Europe discontinued
universal vaccination of children in the late 20th C, reserving/requiring it only for 'at
risk' children.
Group 3: The BCG vaccine against tuberculosis is still mandatory in a number of countries,
including China, India, and Pakistan, and it is mostly children who are vaccinated, typically
in their first year. There may or may not be a booster, usu late pre-teen.
There are lots of variables to work out -- lockdown, distancing, age of population,
co-morbidities, yada yada. But just doing a deeper dive into Spain is interesting. Universal
vaccination program started in 1965 for all newborns, no booster, and stopped in 1981, except
for at-risk children. So that is a cohort of approx 49 to 55 year olds vaccinated. It would
be interesting to see if the mortality rate was different in that group. Bonus! Basque region
children are automatically considered 'at-risk' and have been vaccinated up to present! We
have a control group! Would love to see data on that.
Here are the charts, people, go crazy. 91-divoc , this
is deaths normalized for population, and the BCG World Atlas .
Reply to Hayek's Heelbiter
May 7, 2020 at 11:17 am
On remdesivir: The drug, made by the US company Gilead Sciences, is an antiviral that was trialled in
Ebola, but which failed to show benefits in Africa. -- The Guardian Thu 23 Apr 2020 15.35 EDT
[emphasis added]
As an adenosine nucleotide triphosphate analog, the active metabolite of remdesivir
interferes with the action of viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and evades proofreading by
viral exoribonuclease its predominant effect (as in Ebola) is to induce an irreversible
chain termination. Unlike with many other chain terminators, this is not mediated by
preventing addition of the immediately subsequent nucleotide, but is instead delayed,
occurring after five additional bases have been added to the growing RNA chain.[56] Hence
remdesivir is classified as a delayed chain terminator.
[56] Tchesnokov EP, Feng JY, Porter DP, Götte M (April 2019). "Mechanism of
Inhibition of Ebola Virus RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase by Remdesivir". Viruses. 11 (4): 326.
doi:10.3390/v11040326. PMC 6520719. PMID 30987343.
A useful discussion of the models versus evidence schools of epidemiology. While the
evidence school sounds a lot more like science, the models school currently has the upper
hand given the emergency nature of the response. Are they "assuming a can opener?"
Your first two questions are unfortunately very difficult to address.
I think asymptomatic or nearly asymptomatic direct transmission is very important when
there is not awareness of disease in the community. Then, there is fomites-led transmission
which is even more elusive than asymptomatic direct transmission. So, when you detect someone
with symptoms in a community if then everyone is tested it is almost certain some more will
show positive. A couple of days later some many more will. So when first symptoms appear
everyone must be isolated from each other, clean all surfaces, masks mandatory, and if the
community includes some medical and other care full protection by and for the providers.
Suddenly the community transforms into something resembling a military camp in wartime.
What i find most difficult is to decide what discipline to keep BEFORE the first case
appears.
Everybody's different, flu only kills a very small fraction, granted elderly get shots.
Maybe some differences are nutritional.
My thought is that there is a wide variety of vitamin d and zinc levels in those that get the
virus, and that low levels worsen the outcome. And maybe nicotine also provides
protection.
Diets low in red meat and oysters typically mean low zinc, plus local soils may be low, too I
saw an indication North American soils are generally low. Poor people on cheap diets likely
get little red meat. Hiding inside means low vit d, plus many seniors like me anyway seek
shade to avoid harmful rays. And most living seniors stopped smoking, so no nicotine
input.
I take vit d, plus zinc in a multi, have zinc lozenges on hand if I get symptoms, and if they
worsen would add nicotine patch.
American soils remain the richest in the world. Zinc would be a mineral and mined. There's
no evidence based data to indicate for people in general zinc going to do anything. But if
makes you happy sure why not. I'd ask my doc for a blood test on minerals and a vitamin
panel. Then you'd know.
It is a function of regional geology. The northern US and Canada were largely glaciated
and the soils are very recent (<100,000 years old) and so have not leached their nutrients
and miinerals out. The rolling farmed plains of Western NY, OH, IL, KS, NE, etc. are glacial
till plains or old glacial lakebeds. The Russian steppes are similar. Much of the major
floodplains come from such soils and are rich as well (e.g. Mississippi).
Much of the South and California are old soils that are classified as "residual",
basically bedrock weathered in place with a lot of leaching over hundreds of thousands or
millions of years. These regions often have limited crops that can be grown or require a lot
of fertilizer and maintenance. The same issues hold true for much ot the tropics (the reason
why the Amazon rainforest has slash and burn agriculture to open up new areas that are
temporarily rich.
Regarding why are some countries not experiencing as much COVID-19 as the U.S., Europe and
China, my personal non-scientifcally vetted opinion is that this this virus spreads indoors.
Fresh air, ozone and UV radiation are all natural disinfectants. Outdoors, coughs and sneezes
are dispersed via the wind.
This could also explain why the disease is concentrated in urban settings like NYC,
present in warm weather locations like Singapore and implies it won't necessarily go away
come the summer. On the other hand, the poorest citizens in the poorest countries spend a lot
of time outdoors and don't seem to be as hard hit. Though this has been attributed to a lack
of testing, their homes aren't hermetically sealed and climate controlled like those in the
US, Europe or China which I believe leads to a lower infection rate. That being said, people
who live in urban slums are certainly vulnerable.
There is also the issue, recently somewhat in the news, of different genetic variants of
the virus. I've heard the claim that that explains why NY has been hit harder than the US
West Coast – that the variant in NY supposedly came from Italy, while the West Coast
got it from China. Of course they also spend more time outdoors on the West Coast than in NY,
especially in February.
Commercial real estate is probably going to have to increase their fresh air exchange and
potentially install electrostatic filters if they don't have them. Without that, offices are
likely to be unhealthy.
The term for the motile form of a virus is virion , one or more strands for RNA (of
DNA but SARS-CoV-19 is RNA) enclosed in a fatty lipid capsule ("capsid"), usually with
protruding receptors with which the virion can attach to and inject it RNA strand into a host
cell. Coronaviruses have characteristically prominent "spikes," receptors that extend beyond
the capsid surface.
Basically, virions are little blobs of fat. When exposed directly to air they quickly
rancidify and the exposed RNA strand disintegrates. Riding air pollution particles is
possible but unlikely, as many of these kinds of particles have surfaces antagonistic to the
fatty capsid. However, exhaled particulate droplets suspended in air can pass through coarse
filtration. HEPA filters are designed to trap such droplets, UV irradiation can "cook"
them.
Here is a study on an early transmission site in China, where incidents of infection
seem to correlate to ventilated air flow in a restaurant: COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with
Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
Here is a not-yet-reviewed preprint of a study of two buses transporting attendees to
and from an event in China. One bus (#2) had a suspected "index patient" (IP), the other
didn't. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1255579524047220741
From the article: "In both buses and conference rooms, central air-conditioners were in
indoor re-circulation mode."
Interestingly, the conference itself produced few further cases, these were all traced
to prolonged interactions with the IP. Generally with viruses, some critical mass of virions
must accumulate in sufficient number to produce infection, and total net exposure may
approximately correlate with severity. Untreated recirculated air bearing virus-laden
droplets may lead to repeated exposure and increase concentration of virions in
individuals.
You might be interested in this little tidbit, Quy. From the CDC . You do "trust" them,
don't you?
Just one question for you. Why didn't we shutdown everything in 1968?
1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus)
The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an
avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2
neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September
1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United
States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to
circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are
associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift .
"The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United
States."
Reading some of the other comments, I see many recognize the incredible specificity involved
here in outcomes, treatment, etc. Lockdown is an indirect way to impact those variables but
locking down without specific actions to shield the vulnerable will yield no better results
than no lockdown or the sweden approach. A sweden approach that does protect those vulnerable
is likely more effective than a lockdown that does not.
NYC has nursing homes that are 700 and more persons. Large nursing homes should be banned
if we want to stop this sort of thing in the future. Residents of such facilities should be
moved to smaller temporary housing. NY State allowed persons who tested positive for Covid to
go back to nursing homes -- disaster. Employees of such facilities and visitors would ideally
be tested. Employees of such facilities should not be taking the NYC subway to get to work as
Subways are major transmission points. Nosocomial infections were a big part of the problem
in NYC as well. We needed separate facilities for suspected covid patients. 88.1% of those on
mechanical ventilation in NYC (according to a JAMA study) died. That's junk medicine and it
was implemented in part out of fear of spreading and probably for financial gain....ick.
There are a lot of things that could and should be done but we don't talk about that
because it doesn't fit the media narrative of fear, panic, fear, lockdown, lockdown, lockdown
or bust.
The media has done us and the elderly a great disservice......again
When
the CIA wanted to circumvent possible Chinese bugging of its offices in Beijing in the 1980s,
it came up with a voice protector or "hush phone," essentially two masks with tubes running
between them. It worked, but no one would use it. George Shultz said he felt "ludicrous"
wearing something that made him look "like Siamese-twin elephants joined at the trunk." Even
during planning for Reagan's state visit in 1984 when secrecy was essential, staff in Beijing
simply refused to use a device that made them sound like Donald Duck.
And good for them. There were logistical reasons to reject the hush phone, like the
impossibility of more than two people talking to each other at a time, but there is also
something creditable about whatever part of Secretary Shultz said: I am a grown man, and I have
some dignity.
Everyone is wondering what life will look like at the end of the month. Lockdown
bitter-enders insist that the return to normal will not be like flipping a light switch, to
borrow Maryland governor Larry Hogan's expression. Instead, they say, we will need to spend an
indefinite period in a twilight zone of half-freedom where lockdown orders have been lifted but
aggressive safety measures remain -- a "new normal."
Based on descriptions of the new normal, I am not sure we should allow ourselves to get used
to it. As eager as we are to get the lockdowns over with, we must not let desperation compel us
to put up with things we shouldn't.
Ross Douthat thinks that
long lines outside grocery stores of people waiting to come inside and shop "may become a
permanent feature of the semi-normal landscape." That's absurd, and, like the hush phone, there
are both good reasons and gut reasons why.
One-way aisles and occupancy caps don't do much to stop the spread of disease considering
how little transmission takes place between shoppers who pass like ships in the night. Also,
queuing down the block for groceries is just too grimly Soviet.
Social distancing measures should remain in place even after schools and businesses reopen,
many say. But enforced by whom? Continuing to make cops responsible for enforcing a
six-feet-apart rule will only lead to more viral videos like this week's from New
York, which depicts the violent conclusion of what started as a social distancing stop.
The New York City Police Benevolent Association says officers shouldn't be
enforcing "vague guidelines and mixed messages." It wants the mayor to "get cops out of the
social distancing enforcement business altogether." The PBA is right. The alternative is for
Americans to get accustomed to being hustled along by police for the crime of picnicking on the
grass or reading a book on a park bench, which would be an ominous thing to start shrugging
off.
Australia is making its new normal conditional upon citizens downloading a location-tracking
app modeled on Singapore's. The prime minister insists the app is voluntary, but business
groups like Restaurant and Catering Australia are already considering requiring diners and
shoppers to download the app before being served.
The government says its goal is for 40 percent of the population to download the app, a
target still more than halfway off after its first week in the app store. "Downloading the
COVIDSafe app is the major obstacle now between us freeing up a lot of these restrictions in a
cautious way," Prime Minister Scott Morrison said, not disguising the ultimatum.
The last time the Australian government requested emergency permission to track its
citizens' phones was the metadata retention law of 2015. As with COVIDSafe, repeated assurances
were made about privacy and civil liberties. Later it was revealed that users' metadata had
been used by local city councils in order to track down litterbugs and other mundane offenders
who had nothing to do with the law's original justification, counter-terrorism.
The United States is not Singapore, and there are certain restrictions on our liberty that
we won't tolerate. A government location-tracking app should be one of them. Such excessive
post-lockout safety measures are not needed to deal with a disease that is no longer in danger
of overloading our hospital capacity. More importantly, Americans' gut aversion to being
overpoliced is worth preserving. Ordinary aspects of pre-coronavirus life should not be
sacrificed in order to give those still attached to the lockdowns a psychological on-ramp or a
face-saving pretense that their doomsday forecasts were more accurate than they were.
Except for open plan offices. Ban those permanently, for the good of the nation's
health.
It is interesting if perhaps concerning that of all the comments on the Peter Turchin article
"A
Tale of Two Countries [Denmark and Sweden]" , the one comment B chose to zero in on and
highlight for his post is one by Richard England who refers to the lockdown of fiat and the
lockdown of fear but provides no link to any information (such as polls, questionnaires or
surveys) that would support his argument of most Swedes complying with recommendations and
regulations voluntarily out of fear.
Turchin started his comparison of the progress of COVID-19 in Denmark and Sweden expecting
that the death rates in Denmark compared to those in Sweden would support his belief that a
lockdown was necessary. He did not expect to see that by 1 May 2020, the trends in new cases,
transmission rates and even death rates in Sweden were actually comparing well with
equivalent data in Denmark.
One commenter on the Turchin article, Ernst Nilsson, says that 80% of COVID-19 deaths in
Sweden were of people aged 70+ years and that Swedish authorities have acknowledged that
people in aged care homes and similar facilities had not been well protected.
Karl Kling points out that in Sweden, aged care facilities are the responsibility of
municipal governments that have been cutting labour costs in those places by using workers,
many of them on hourly contracts and / or not being fluent Swedish speakers. It is likely
then that these workers have been spreading the virus among the people they care for because
they are working long hours to make ends meet, are being exposed themselves to the virus more
than they would be if they were working regular hours on their shifts and were being paid
adequately, and do not have a good understanding of what they should be doing to avoid being
infected and spreading the disease in their own languages because Swedish authorities failed
to communicate adequate information about COVID-19 to immigrant communities and foreign
workers.
Other commenters point out that Sweden has a large immigrant population ( Wikipedia
states that the immigrant population and their children make up at least 24% of the total
population; incidentally this means comparisons between Sweden and other Nordic nations,
where the immigrant population and their children are about 15%, of dubious worth) and
sections of this population may be behaving differently in ways that exacerbate COVID-19
incidence and mortality. The Somali community in Sweden is known to be very hard-hit by
COVID-19 due in large part to living in dense and crowded housing in impoverished communities
where access to healthcare, other social services and information about the disease is
poor.
That aged care facilities and immigrant communities have been badly affected by COVID-19
disease is not a consequence of not having a lockdown or shutdown but is rather a consequence
of past Swedish policies in allowing nursing homes and similar institutions to be rundown or
badly managed, and in neglecting other vulnerable groups by not giving them information about
the disease in ways they can access. That immigrants are also working in aged care facilities
helps to circulate the disease among vulnerable groups.
Sweden is a valuable case. I see three categories of measures which can be combined:
- top down centrally managed/enforced
- self organized
- negotiated
The first relies on central planning and as central planning goes, it can be powerful and at
the same time crude and wasteful. The second resembles more the 'free market' approach , it
has the advantage of 'on the terrain' adjustments which can be much smarter than in the
centrally organized case but it does not necessarily work in the desired direction. Much
depends on the feedback mechanisms which are available.
The third is where a group of people is willing to do their sacrifices for the greater
good(or the lesser evil) but they should expect something in return from other groups of
people because it shifts the balance of power.
An example of the difference between 1 and 2 is how masks were handled in Belgium vs
Czechia. Czechia took the more trusting decentralized approach. Belgium followed the WHO and
was more guided by fear that people would do it wrong, with the scarcity and all. But people
perform better if you give them trust and responsibility. Also using masks is a learning
process so now you see in Belgium it takes time to get it going.
The main flaws in thinking about Sweden is that it relied entirely on the second group,
that this second group by itself should be able to fix it all, and that this second group did
not hit the economy hard. But for the cinema owner it does not make a big difference if they
have to close down because nobody is allowed to visit, or because there are only 2 people in
the theater anyway. In the restaurant sector the self organizing approach will have softened
the blow. I read visitors dropped to 1/3.
I think Sweden has used a variety of measures with a variety of results. They flattened
the curve without lockdown. We can learn from them, or to put it differently, steal ideas
from them.
so maybe Japan's strategy was better than the others ... delayed "lockdown" with very low
testing ratio per million resident (even after promising about 20000 tests per day last
April, to this date J-lawmakers blame lack of manpower and preparation for not being able to
reach that objective). we got low numbers ... and reported infections have been declining in
Tokyo.
the "lockdown" is simply a request for people to follow 3密 (san mitsu). people have
explained that Japan can force the people to lockdown. the government does not have the
authority. most people followed the requests ... i don't know if it's because they respected
the request of the gov't or just because of fear.
GW just finished, it is a yearly migration of people from the cities back to their home
towns. or people trying to refresh, go on vacation/travel. i traveled from Kanagawa (where I
live) to Tokyo and was surprised at how empty it was. the trains, train stations, the areas.
locally in Kanagawa, the parks are full of people, under sun shades, kids playing around.
J-media highlighted 2 cases where asymptomatic person died in self isolation in Saitama,
and has now modified the requirements for getting a PCR test. i myself would like to get an
antibody test ... well waiting, that is.
waiting to be able to apply for the 10万円 (100000 thousand yen) being given
by the government.
i am still waiting for my アベノマスク (Abenomask).
distribution is delayed because the masks were soiled/moldy/dirty. a failed stunt which cost
466億円 (466 billion yen).
the best place to buy masks now is in Chinatown ... price is high ... but there is supply
... and there is demand. Sharp (TV/LED maker) is making masks, but has to raffle it off
because of the demand.
Abe-extended the State of Emergency to enf-of-May ... but if they think everything is
clear they can lift the SoE as early as May 15.
I usually don't read The Atlantic , but I was shocked its staff writer George Packer wrote this : "We Are Living in
a Failed State: The coronavirus didn't break America. It revealed what was already broken."
It's a special preview of the June issue, so I don't know how long it'll be at the link. Yes,
the title foretells the content!
PIF GADGET comics magazine(a famous French comics anthology magazine for children produced by
the French communist party) predicted the corona virus epidemic back in one of its January
1979 issues, not sure which, because they came out weekly. It was in Doctor Justice series,
about a doctor named Benjamin Justice who travels around the world helping poor nations. It
even had a drawing of a corona virus. Interesting.
Back in the 1970s, growing in a communist country, we were repeatedly warned that
Americans want to wage bio war against the communists countries using viruses and bacteria.
We were told they will try to spread the bio weapons around. And here we are, 2020. Seems the
communists KNEW.
Not yet. Uncle Sam still has a near-monopoly on violence. But civilians with 400 million
guns (really, more guns than people) might have something to say about that in the near
future. Meanwhile, sheriffs in Arizona have announced that they will not arrest or fine
people who violate the governor's virus diktats. Police always have discretion to charge or
ignore any crime, but this is a direct challenge to the governor.
If an individual directly challenges the police, over anything at all, they will be
abruptly dealt with. Failure to Obey is the second worst crime, right next to killing a cop.
So what can a governor do, call out the National Guard against the sheriffs? That would be a
big deal. But he can't let a direct challenge to his authority go unanswered. That is
unthinkable in a rigid hierarchy.
We have little experience in taking such measures. The model builders do not know how much
each of those restrictions will contribute to the lowering of the peak. They have to estimate
those parameters. Until this month it was not even clear if children could get infected or were
infectious. Arguing for closing schools without knowing that is quite difficult.
Clinical epidemiologists, who mostly work on randomized trials which produce hard data,
are often critical of the model builders. They dislike the many assumptions that go into
modeling and demand more hard data. Stanford's professor John Ioannidis, who ran the
Santa Clara antibody study , is one of them. He is somewhat right. All models are wrong,
but some are useful. A recent Boston Review piece looks at the
differences between the two tribes of epidemiologists. It finds that we need both.
When the politicians take measures they are only in part based on the predictions the
modelers made. They also have to look at economic outcomes, at other security issues and they
have to take public opinion into account. Quite strict measures were taken in many western
countries. They worked well in some of them. Germany has hardly any 'excess death' from
Covid-19. Other countries, like Britain, acted too late or not to a sufficient degree and had
to pay the price for that.
As the epidemic now starts to recede a bit there is quite a lot of criticism of the lockdown
in Germany. 'The models were wrong,' some people claim. 'The lockdown measures were
unnecessary.' Then follow demands for the immediate lifting of most restrictions.
"There is no glory in prevention" is the frustrating aspects in the life of an
epidemiologist. If they do their job too well everyone will bash them.
A month ago Max Abrams saw this development coming and commented :
A month ago Max
Abrams saw this development coming and commented :
Models make assumption of how much people will social distance.
Based on this assumption model predicts virus cases.
More social distancing is practiced than assumed.
Model over-predicts virus cases.
Idiots say models are wrong so we don't need social distance.
Others point to Sweden and claim that its decision to let the epidemic burn without much
intervention was a much better way than to go for lockdowns. But the evidence for that
isn't there
. The numbers show a different picture:
Sweden in fact had the very same problems with its medical systems that some other countries
also had. It had to ration ICU beds by denying them to people above a certain age. Its economy
was hit as bad
as other ones :
The effect of virus-fighting efforts on the Swedish economy has been devastating. A very
large number of small businesses have collapsed. All but essential industries closed down
almost immediately and many face bankruptcy. People have been told to refrain from all
non-essential travel. Virtually all air travel has been suspended. Unemployment figures are
soaring. The opposition parties deem government counter-measures to be too little too
late.
...
Contrary to impressions created in American media, Sweden's approach to handling the pandemic
has not been "relaxed," but essentially the same as in other Western countries. This country
of 10 million has been at least as preoccupied with the pandemic as other countries. Whether
its approach has been as efficient remains to be seen. What may stand out as exceptional in
the end is Sweden's glaring lack of preparedness for a pandemic, especially for protecting
its elderly, and that the dead are disproportionately recent immigrants.
While Sweden may not have ordered everyone into a total lockdown the people have largely
done that by themselves simply out fo fear.
As a comment by one Richard England here (May 6, 2020 at
3:40am) describes that effect:
There are two kinds of lock-down, lock-down by fiat and lock-down by fear (or for that
matter, self-preservation). The importance of lock-down by fear explains why Sweden has not
done as badly as would be expected. Both forms of lock-down are economically destructive.
Lock-down by fiat is usually either too slow or too incomplete to be much different from
lock-down by fear, and both are more than enough to knock over a weak economy. Fear
dissipates, and the economic life resumes more quickly where the disease has been essentially
eliminated.
The effect is also captured in this graph by the German equivalent to the CDC, the Robert
Koch Institute. It shows the replication factor R of the epidemic in Germany and three points
in time where official lockdown measures were taken.
The replication factor of the disease in Germany was already decreasing in mid March before
the more severe measures were ordered. R was below 1 even before March 23 when the government
ordered the lockdown.
The simple reason for that is the people heard the news and watched TV. The pictures and
death numbers from Italy in late February were quite brutal. When herd animals sense that an
epidemic is taken place within their herd they distance themselves from each other. Humans
behave similarly. As in Sweden many people in Germany went into some kind of lockdown and
practiced social distancing even before it was ordered.
Some now claim that the RKI graph shows that the measures were not necessary. They are
wrong. The data was not known when the measures were taken. The first of the simulations shown
in the graph was done on April 1. In late March the R seemed to go again above 1 which meant
that the epidemic was again expanding. Only the lockdown measures taken on March 23 pressed R
below 1 and led to a slow decrease of new daily cases.
Germany is now slowly coming out of its lockdown. The U.S. is doing this too but at a point
of the epidemic where it is way too early. There are economic reasons to do so but the early
lifting of lockdown measures will likely cost the U.S. many human lives.
Fear will help to overrule that overhasty political decision. The news will continue to
report new mass outbreaks in this or that part of the country. The fear will therefore also
continue and the people will keep distancing themselves from each other. How much that will
help to slow down the epidemic is difficult to estimate.
There is now some evidence that the summer will bring some relief from the onslaught of bad
news. A study with data from 166 countries and published in Science of The Total
Environmentfinds :
A 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a 3.08% (95% CI: 1.53%, 4.63%)
reduction in daily new cases and a 1.19% (95% CI: 0.44%, 1.95%) reduction in daily new
deaths, whereas a 1% increase in relative humidity was associated with a 0.85% (95% CI:
0.51%, 1.19%) reduction in daily new cases and a 0.51% (95% CI: 0.34%, 0.67%) reduction in
daily new deaths. The results remained robust when different lag structures and the
sensitivity analysis were used. These findings provide preliminary evidence that the COVID-19
pandemic may be partially suppressed with temperature and humidity increases. However, active
measures must be taken to control the source of infection, block transmission and prevent
further spread of COVID-19.
A hot and wet summer is likely to lower the number of new Covid-19 cases. But after the
summer come fall and winter during which we are likely to see a new peak. The fear will be
back, social distances will again be practiced and the economic damage will further
increase.
We had the chance to do otherwise. China gave us time to take the right measures. It has,
like Hong Kong, Vietnam, South Korea and New Zealand, practically eradicated the disease within
its boarders. It now has an advantage that will be difficult to beat.
Posted by b on May 6, 2020 at 18:57 UTC | Permalink
"The importance of lock-down by fear explains why Sweden has not done as badly as would be
expected. Both forms of lock-down are economically destructive."
The difference being that where the government plans and controls the lockdown it can
mitigate many of the economic consequences by, for example, ensuring that nobody runs out of
money to buy essentials, subsidising prices in agriculture and buying surpluses arising from
lower demand, and various other measures, including rationing, which will ensure that the
'lockdown' does not lead to the deaths of anything except marginal businesses.
Many and sincere thanks, b, for these thoughtful and prescient posts. Yours has been a
rare voice of sanity and social responsibility in this pandemic. It is to be hoped that even
those who disagree with your conclusions recognise the honest and agonising analysis behind
them.
Regarding the imposed versus fear lockdown: Spain had (has) an imposed lockdown, but from the
first day the new PSOE/Podemos government announced unprecedente measures to prevent
evictions, layoffs, and provide income support that would help working people, including the
irregular "gig economy" types that usually fall through the cracks of many such efforts. Big
diference from 2007_8. The battle is now with the EU. We Will see if the Dutch and
Germán bankers Will pull their heads out of their collective asses, or take the while
EU down.
One really needs to take a closer, deeper look at Sweden and most every place. The lockdown
vs. not lockdown mentality is overly simplistic and inaccurate.
Sweden has a high level of obesity (21%) and 44% of Swedes are overweight. Norway is
similar but Denmark has 9.5% obesity. Sweden has a larger immigrant (% pop) than Norway and
probably than Denmark. Immigrant population in Sweden did not seem to listen to the measures
sweden took. Nearly 50% (maybe more now)of the deceased in Sweden are from nursing homes and
Sweden's nursing homes are on average bigger (200 plus persons) compared to those in Norway
(about 45 people). The Swedes failed to take actions to protect those nursing homes until it
was too late and 1/3 had infections. Its worth pointing out that immigrants are over
represented among employees of said institutions too.
The over simplification is a tool lockdown advocates are using to ignore the basic
reality. Deaths are ultimately about percent of vulnerable in the population (elderly mostly)
and success in protecting them from the Virus. The virus yields asymptomatic to mild results
in 95% of more of the population so its really all about the vulnerable population. If you
want a meaningful chart, then you need to chart deaths vs over 65 population and vs persons
with comorbidities.
NY/NJ shut down and still had a lot more deaths per capita than Sweden. NY/NJ failed in
the same way Sweden failed. They did not protect the vulnerable.
When I was in Sweden last summer, I was perplexed how unhealthy many Swedes look. The picture
in Denmark was completely different. Curiously, the Covid-19 incidence rates in Denmark,
Norway and Sweden mostly mirror my (superficial and subjective) impression of the health of
the citizens of these countries. Lots of obesity in Sweden, lots of cyclists in Denmark.
By April, the country had changed. A virus that had gained footing overseas had spread like
wildfire in major cities, forcing bars and restaurants to shutter their doors. The long days at
the office were gone. Economic stability had disappeared. At night, the news organizations
displayed images of corpses wrapped in white bags being loaded into refrigerated trucks in the
once-busy streets of New York City. They showed video footage of people in biohazard suits
placing bodies into a mass grave on
Hart Island . The gears in the clock were moving at a fast pace in high-density parts of
the country: alive this month and dead the next. By May, those who resided outside of the
coronavirus hot zones though, who didn't have to see the deadly virus's grim threats on a daily
basis, yearned for their old ways of living.
Eakens, thanks for the link to the Plandemic video! I was chatting with my sister today and
she recommended it as well.
BTW, my sister is a nurse in NJ in a hospital about 60 mi south of NYC near the shore.
Several wards in her hospital were converted to ICUs to handle the influx of covid patients,
so I have been asking her what meds they are given. As of a few weeks ago Plaquenil
(hydroxychloroquine) was the standard treatment, along with azithromycin and zinc which is
the most common protocol. Most patients are getting this and to quote her directly: "It's
standard treatment and saving lives daily." She is perplexed by the politicization. While she
is a conservative, the great majority of her coworkers are not.
The other two standard treatments added more recently to their covid protocols are
tocizulamab (IL-6) and plasma with antibodies.
Here is a recent article on the tocizulamb, which I had never heard of before my sister
mentioned it.
Teachers want their students back in the classroom before they start thinking for themselves.
(drum roll). The NYT published a letter from a middle school girl who says she learns better,
faster and deeper, distance learning than in class. Teachers have to spend too much time
dealing with disruptive knuckleheads. Teachers didn't put up with any crap when I went to
school.
Doctors that use hydroxychloroquine as a covid treatment report up to a 90% success rate,
and works best when given early. On the other hand, the ebola wonder drug shortens the
hospital stay from 15 to 11 days. I don't understand Ain't So Bright's, and many of the
"experts," dismissal of of what treating physicians report an effective treatment in favor of
one that less effictive. I trust the observations of the doctors on the ground more than some
office dweller reading numbers, the most important ones being those in his paycheck.
Do you believe the Pentagon? From their study published this year. From Children's
Health Defense entitled "Pentagon Study: Flu Shot Raises Risk of Coronavirus by 36% (and Other
Supporting Studies)."
In searching the literature, the only study we have been able to find assessing flu shots
and coronavirus is a 2020 US
Pentagon study that found that the flu shot INCREASES the risks from coronavirus by 36%.
"Receiving influenza vaccination may increase the risk of other respiratory viruses, a
phenomenon known as "virus interference 'vaccine derived' virus interference was
significantly associated with coronavirus " Here are the findings:
2020 Pentagon study: Flu vaccines increase risk of coronavirus by 36%
Examining non-influenza viruses specifically, the odds of coronavirus in vaccinated
individuals were significantly higher when compared to unvaccinated individuals with an odds
ratio (association between an exposure and an outcome) of 1.36. In other words, the
vaccinated were 36% more likely to get coronavirus.
A risk factor that we want to highlight, however, is the low vitamin D levels...
There is evidence that vitamin D is involved in our defense against respiratory tract
infections. According to a meta-analysis, vitamin D supplementation (daily-weekly dosage)
prevents acute respiratory tract infections, especially in those with 25(OH)-D below
25 nmol/l (NNT = 4).[7]
In a randomised trial on individuals with frequent respiratory tract infections,
treatment with cholecalciferol 4000 IE/day reduced the need for antibiotic treatment.[8]
The mechanism is debated; however, modulation of the renin-angiotensin system has been
implicated in animal studies of acute respiratory distress syndrome,[9] and
angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 is a well-established receptor for the SARS-CoV
virus.[10]
In order to cope with the covid-19 epidemic, preventive measures could be administration
of vitamin D to high-risk populations... adults with low sun-exposure and/or individuals
with risk factors for respiratory tract infections. Although it may not always be helpful,
it is unlikely to be harmful.
24 March 2020
Susanne Bejerot
Professor, MD
Mats Humble, MD, PhD
Örebro University, School of Medical Sciences
Campus USÖ, SE-70182 Örebro, Sweden
Scientists have detected an antibody that blocks the coronavirus from entering cells,
providing a much-needed shield for severely ill patients. While not a cure or vaccine, it
is still a significant development.
"This is clearly a breakthrough that shows that we are on the right track for the
development of a drug against Covid-19," said virologist Professor Luka Cicin-Sain.
"In repeated experiments, we were able to show that this result is sustainable." [.]
The antibodies are currently undergoing additional testing on cell cultures to whittle
their number down to find the most effective at blocking the infection. [.]
a drug for treatment, a vaccine unlikely.
Thank you Likklemore, that is promising news. Methinks chasing the holy grail (more likely
Golden Fleece) of vaccines has cost the world many lives and needless lockdown. You have to
wonder what all that research was doing by NOT coming up with a remedial medicine years
ago.
"... Health experts say people are significantly less likely to get the coronavirus while outside, a fact that could add momentum to calls to reopen beaches and parks closed during the COVID-19 pandemic. ..."
"... The virus is harder to transmit outdoors because the droplets that spread it are more easily disturbed or dispersed outside in the elements than in a closed, confined, indoor setting. ..."
"... As people go outside for their daily exercise and pass by one another, experts offered reassurance that simply passing someone for a split second outdoors presents a low risk. "The virus can't magically teleport," said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. "It needs a cough or sneeze or something, singing, talking, spitting. ... It's not magnetism or something like that." ..."
Health experts say people are significantly less likely to get the coronavirus while
outside, a fact that could add momentum to calls to reopen beaches and parks closed during the
COVID-19 pandemic.
... ... ...
Murray said that even outside on the beach, people who do not live together should stay six
feet apart and that activities such as beach volleyball should be avoided because multiple
people touching the same equipment can spread the virus.
That means playgrounds also are a danger, she said.
"While it's great to have parks and beaches, you probably don't want playground equipment
open," Murray said.
The virus is harder to transmit outdoors because the droplets that spread it are more
easily disturbed or dispersed outside in the elements than in a closed, confined, indoor
setting.
"It definitely spreads more indoors than outdoors," said Roger Shapiro, a professor at
Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "The virus droplets disperse so rapidly
in the wind that they become a nonfactor if you're not really very close to someone outdoors --
let's say within six feet."
As people go outside for their daily exercise and pass by one another, experts offered
reassurance that simply passing someone for a split second outdoors presents a low risk. "The
virus can't magically teleport," said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins
University Center for Health Security. "It needs a cough or sneeze or something, singing,
talking, spitting. ... It's not magnetism or something like that."
Adalja said some of the decisions around activities such as sitting closer than six feet
away from a friend outside on the grass have to do with how much risk someone is personally
willing to accept. "There's not some kind of black or white answer to all of this stuff," he
said. "People are going to have to make a lot of decisions about what risk tolerance they
have."
Indoor spaces such as barbershops are certainly higher risk, though. There are more shared
surfaces that could transmit the virus, such as the barber's chair. Another danger, especially
in the summer, is air conditioning, which can circulate the virus through the
air.
"If you're in an indoor space that has the air conditioning blasting ... that air
conditioning might be blowing the droplets straight at you," said Murray, the Boston University
professor. Even outdoors, Adalja said people should be mindful of keeping their distance and
washing their hands. "You can go to the beach, you can go to the park, and it can be safe," he
said. "It's just you have to be cognizant of the fact that the virus is there."
"... "Actually, wearing masks on the street is stupid. First, in the open air, it is absolutely useless, only makes it difficult for people with disabilities to breathe. But, of course, in public places, shops, probably, wearing a mask should be left. Secondly, if you do not provide the entire population with masks, it will end in the fact that a person will buy a single mask and wear it forever, which will cause much more harm to health," Zverev says. ..."
The virologist also spoke about the possible introduction of a mandatory "mask regime"
throughout Russia, which is written about by the media.
"Actually, wearing masks on the street is stupid. First, in the open air, it is
absolutely useless, only makes it difficult for people with disabilities to breathe. But, of
course, in public places, shops, probably, wearing a mask should be left. Secondly, if you do
not provide the entire population with masks, it will end in the fact that a person will buy
a single mask and wear it forever, which will cause much more harm to health," Zverev
says.
He explains that after two hours of continuous wearing of the mask, it becomes wet, which
turns it from a means of protection to a means of infection with viruses and bacteria. Zverev
reminds that in addition to the coronavirus in the world, there are still a huge number of
infections that can also cause severe harm to a person, so it is not necessary to resort to
such measures yet.
Earlier, a mandatory "mask regime" was introduced in the Moscow region in order to prevent a
new coronavirus. For going out on the street without this means of protection, citizens of the
region face a fine of 4 thousand rubles.
I can't imagine that the lockdown will last much longer then end of May. A month, perhaps, to
enable governments to row back and gradually feed the change of planned course through the
media.
As fallout from the coronavirus pandemic further pinches Boeing's cash flow –
financials already hurt by the grounding of the 737 Max – the US Air Force (USAF) has
decided to release $882 million in payments withheld from the company in order to help fix a
troublesome problem with the
####
Over only a measly $1 billion?
I should try this. Give me money or I'll go bankrupt and you'll get nothing that works
properly! What a great 'business model'.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is caused by a newly discovered coronavirus
(SARS-CoV). No effective prophylactic or post-exposure therapy is currently available.
Results
We report, however, that chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of
primate cells. These inhibitory effects are observed when the cells are treated with the drug
either before or after exposure to the virus, suggesting both prophylactic and therapeutic
advantage. In addition to the well-known functions of chloroquine such as elevations of
endosomal pH, the drug appears to interfere with terminal glycosylation of the cellular
receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2. This may negatively influence the virus-receptor
binding and abrogate the infection, with further ramifications by the elevation of vesicular
pH, resulting in the inhibition of infection and spread of SARS CoV at clinically admissible
concentrations. Conclusion
Chloroquine is effective in preventing the spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. Favorable
inhibition of virus spread was observed when the cells were either treated with chloroquine
prior to or after SARS CoV infection. In addition, the indirect immunofluorescence assay
described herein represents a simple and rapid method for screening SARS-CoV antiviral
compounds.
"Every time the virus replicates, there is a danger of error in the copy, which renders it
less effective for the most part, much as in human cells."
The issue is that the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein that binds to ACE2 and CD147 receptors
is what allows the virus to replicate more efficiently. In a given population of viral
particles a less efficient particle would result in fewer replicates leading its mutation to
be less prevalent in a population of the coronavirus.
Thus, I would expect the virus to retain its virulence over time which leads us back to Dr
Talab's conclusion on how to stop the transmission of a virus that needs a host. A subset of
the availability of a host is what happens if the host can also be a non-human such as the
Chinese raccoon dog, ferrets or even pigs?
In discussing viral mutations it is important to also note that articles that claim to
calculate viral mutation rates fail to understand that statistics is about populations, and
not individuals. The mutation rates of a population are not well represented by the PCR test
if the mutation is not frequent enough to be seen in the amplification process (38-39
times).
I would not bet against the persistence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus S-protein and thus its
continued virulence given the probability of mutations and the loss of function by a less
virulent strain.
As for a vaccine, I would not hold my breath and if partially successful might result in
more deaths due the the vaccine of the cytokine storm that the virus itself.
What does an anti-body test do? I just had one last week and awaiting the results - was a
cruise passenger and international air passenger during the month of January in a later
suspected area. (not Asia).
Here is why I did the anti-body test: (Quest Labs - fee service, no RX- 99% accuracy -
drawn blood vial test)
1. Helps substantiate dates and areas of transmission that may not yet be in the data
pool.
2. Tracks the rates of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases occurring among the
"elderly", in order to see if there is an enhanced risk of not in this age group, if there
are no underlying co-morbidities.
3. Adds demographic data specific for the travel industry.
4. Allows possible donation of anti-body serum for research and perhaps mitigation of
those who are affected.
5. Personal peace of mind -been there and done that. Freedom to move about.
6. Provides baseline for duration of immunity; resilience of immunity or data showing
re-infection can be possible.
Primarily it is for data gathering to help stop the hysteria. That was worth the time,
money and blood donation for me. We will never know the true extent of this virus, its
impacts, its initial modeling accuracy until we start plugging facts into the "expert"
hypotheticals.
Taking one for the team is the way I see it. Will I now become a local Typhoid Mary and
our house burned down if this data becomes known? Or will people stop walking out into the
roadway in faux deference to my advanced age as I pass by, from our deliciously virtue
signaling "progressive" population in blue state California.
"Provides baseline for duration of immunity; resilience of immunity or data showing
re-infection can be possible. Primarily it is for data gathering to help stop the hysteria."
Yes
HEDGE FUNDS have been accused of profiteering from the coronavirus pandemic, as they exploit
the economic turmoil to make billions of pounds in quick profits.
By JOHN VARGA
PUBLISHED: 06:02, Fri, Apr 10, 2020 | UPDATED: 11:25, Fri, Apr 10, 2020
Yves here. Even though it should come as no surprise that
Covid-19 is an opportunity for more-better military grifting, the conduct can't even be
classified as brazen. It's now routinized plunder.
At this moment of unprecedented crisis, you might think that those not overcome by the
economic and mortal
consequences of the coronavirus would be asking, "What can we do to help?" A few companies have
indeed pivoted to making masks and ventilators for an overwhelmed medical establishment.
Unfortunately, when it comes to the top officials of the Pentagon and the CEOs running a large
part of the arms industry, examples abound of them asking what they can do to help
themselves.
It's important to grasp just how staggeringly well the defense industry has done in these
last nearly 19 years since 9/11. Its companies (
filled with ex-military and defense officials) have received trillions of dollars in
government contracts, which they've largely used to feather their own nests. Data compiled by
the New York
Times showed that the chief executive officers of the top five military-industrial
contractors received nearly $90 million in compensation in 2017. An investigation that same
year by the Providence Journal discovered that, from 2005 to the first half of 2017, the
top five defense contractors spent
more than $114 billion repurchasing their own company stocks and so boosting their value at
the expense of new investment.
To put this in perspective in the midst of a pandemic, the co-directors of the Costs of War
Project at Brown University recently
pointed out that allocations for the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, and the National Institutes of Health for 2020 amounted to less than 1%
of what the U.S. government has spent on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan alone since 9/11.
While just about every imaginable government agency and industry has been impacted by the
still-spreading coronavirus, the role of the defense industry and the military in responding to
it has, in truth, been
limited indeed. The highly publicized use of military hospital ships in New York City and
Los Angeles, for example, not only had relatively little
impact on the crises in those cities but came to serve as a
symbol of just how
dysfunctional the military response has truly been.
Bailing Out the Military-Industrial Complex in the Covid-19 Moment
Demands to use the Defense Production Act to direct firms to produce equipment needed to
combat Covid-19
have sputtered , provoking
strong resistance from industries worried first and foremost about their own profits. Even
conservative Washington Post columnist Max Boot, a
longtime supporter of increased Pentagon spending, has recently recanted, noting how just
such budget priorities have weakened the ability of the United States to keep Americans safe
from the virus. "It never made any sense, as Trump's 2021 budget had initially proposed, to
increase spending on nuclear weapons by $7 billion while cutting Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention funding by $1.2 billion," he
wrote . "Or to create an unnecessary Space Force out of the U.S. Air Force while
eliminating the vitally important directorate of global health by folding it into another
office within the National Security Council."
In fact, continuing to prioritize the U.S. military will only further weaken the country's
public health system. As a start, simply to call up doctors and nurses in the military
reserves, as even Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has
pointed out , would hurt the broader civilian response to the pandemic. After all, in their
civilian lives many of them now work at domestic hospitals and medical centers deluged by
Covid-19 patients.
The present situation, however, hasn't stopped military-industrial complex requests for
bailouts. The National Defense Industrial Association, a trade group for the arms industry,
typically asked the Pentagon to speed up contracts and awards for
$160 billion in unobligated Department of Defense funds to its companies, which will
involve pushing money out the door without even the most modest level of due diligence.
Already under fire in the pre-pandemic moment for grotesque safety problems with its
commercial jets, Boeing, the Pentagon's second biggest contractor, received $26.3 billion last
year. Now, that company has asked for
$60 billion in government support. And you undoubtedly won't be surprised to learn that
Congress has already provided Boeing with some of that desired money in its recent bailout
legislation. According
to the Washington Post , $17 billion was carved out in that deal for companies
"critical to maintaining national security" (with Boeing in particular in mind). When, however,
it became clear that those funds wouldn't arrive as a complete blank check, the company started
to have second thoughts. Now, some members of Congress are practically
begging it to take the money.
And Boeing was far from alone. Even as the spreading coronavirus was
spurring congressional conversations about what would become a $2
trillion relief package,
130 members of the House were already pleading for funds to purchase an additional 98
Lockheed Martin F-35 jet fighters, the
most expensive weapons system in history, at the cost of another half-billion dollars, or
the price of more than 90,000 ventilators.
Similarly, it should have been absurdly obvious that this wasn't the moment to boost already
astronomical spending on nuclear weapons. Yet this year's defense budget request for such
weaponry was 20% higher than last
year's and 50% above funding levels when President Trump took office. The agency that
builds nuclear weapons already had
$8 billion left unspent from past years and the head of the National Nuclear Security
Agency, responsible for the development of nuclear warheads, admitted to Representative Susan
Davis (D-CA) that the agency was
unlikely even to be able to spend all of the new increase.
Boosters of such weapons, however, remain undeterred by the Covid-19 pandemic. If anything,
the crisis only seems to have provided a further excuse to
accelerate the awarding of an estimated $85 billion to Northrop Grumman to build a new
generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), considered the " broken
leg " of America's nuclear triad. As William Hartung, the director of the Arms and Security
Project at the Center for International Policy, has pointed
out , such ICBMs "are redundant because invulnerable submarine-launched ballistic missiles
are sufficient for deterring other countries from attacking the United States. They are
dangerous because they operate on hair-trigger alert, with launch decisions needing to be made
in some cases within minutes. This increases the risk of an accidental nuclear war."
And as children's book author Dr. Seuss might have added , "But that is not
all! Oh, no, that is not all." In fact, defense giant Raytheon is
also getting its piece of the pie in the Covid-19 moment for a $20-$30 billion
Long Range Standoff Weapon , a
similarly redundant nuclear-armed missile. It tells you everything you need to know about
funding priorities now that the company is, in fact, getting that money two years ahead of
schedule.
In the midst of the spreading pandemic, the U.S. military's Indo-Pacific Command similarly
saw an opportunity to use fear-mongering about China, a country officially in its area of
responsibility, to gain additional funding. And so it is seeking
$20 billion that previously hadn't gained approval even from the secretary of defense in
the administration's fiscal year 2021 budget proposal. That money would go to dubious missile
defense systems and a similarly dubious "Pacific Deterrence Initiative."
How Not to Deal With Covid-19
Along with those military-industrial bailouts came the fleecing of American taxpayers. While
many Americans were
anxiously awaiting their $1,200 payments from that congressional aid and relief package,
the Department of Defense was expediting contract payments to the arms industry. Shay Assad, a
former senior Pentagon official, accurately
called it a "taxpayer rip-off" that industries with so many resources, not to speak of the
ability to borrow money at incredibly low interest rates, were being so richly and quickly
rewarded in tough times. Giving defense giants such funding at this moment was like giving a
housing contractor 90% of upfront costs for renovations when it was unclear whether you could
even afford your next mortgage payment.
Right now, the defense industry is having similar success in persuading the Pentagon that
basic accountability should be tossed out the window. Even in normal times, it's a reasonably
rare event for the federal government to withhold money from a giant weapons maker unless its
performance is truly egregious. Boeing, however, continues to fit that bill perfectly with its
endless program to build the KC-46 Pegasus tanker, basically a "flying gas station" meant to
refuel other planes in mid-air.
As national security analyst Mark Thompson, my colleague at the Project on Government
Oversight (POGO),
has pointed out , even after years of development, that tanker has little hope of
performing its mission in the near future. The seven cameras that its pilot relies on to guide
the KC-46's fuel to other planes have so much glare and so many shadows that the possibility of
disastrously scraping the stealth coating off F-22s and F-35s (both manufactured by Lockheed
Martin) while refueling remains a constant danger. The Air Force has also become
increasingly concerned that the tanker itself leaks fuel. In the pre-pandemic moment, such
problems and associated ones led that service to decide to withhold $882 million from Boeing.
Now, however, in response to the Covid-19 crisis, those funds are, believe it or not, being
released .
Keep all of this behavior (and more) in mind when you hear people suggest that, in this
public health emergency, the military
should be put in charge . After all, you're talking about the very institution that has
regularly mismanaged massive weapons programs like the $1.4 trillion F-35 jet fighter program,
already the most expensive weapons system ever (with
ongoing problems galore). Even when it comes to health care, the military has proved
remarkably inept. For instance, attempts of the Department of Veterans Affairs and the
Department of Defense to integrate their health records were, infamously enough, abandoned
after four years and $1 billion spent.
Having someone in uniform
at the podium is, unfortunately, no guarantee of success. Indeed, a number of veterans have
been quick to rebuke the idea of forefronting the military at this time. "Don't put the
military in charge of anything that doesn't involve blowing stuff up, preventing stuff from
being blown up, or showing up at a place as a message to others that we'll be there to blow
stuff up with you if need be," one wrote .
"Here's a video from Camp Pendleton of unmasked Marines queued up for haircuts during the
pandemic," tweeted another . "So how
about 'no'?" That video of troops without masks or practicing social distancing even shocked
Secretary of Defense Esper, who called for a military haircut halt, only to be contradicted by the
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, desperate to maintain regulation cuts in the pandemic
moment. That inspired a mocking rebuke of "haircut
heroes" on Twitter.
Unfortunately, as Covid-19 spread on the aircraft carrier the USS Theodore Roosevelt
, that ship became emblematic of how ill-prepared the current Pentagon leadership proved to be
in combatting the virus. Despite at least 100 cases being reported on board --
955 crewmembers would, in the end,
test positive for the disease and Chief Petty Officer Charles Robert Thacker Jr. would
die of it -- senior Navy leaders were slow to respond. Instead, they kept those sailors at
close quarters and in an untenable situation of
increasing risk . When an emailed letter expressing the concerns of the ship's commander,
Captain Brett Crozier, was leaked to the press he was quickly removed from command . But
while his bosses may not have appreciated his efforts for his crew, his sailors did. He left
the ship to a
hero's farewell .
All of this is not to say that some parts of the U.S. military haven't tried to step up as
Covid-19 spreads. The Pentagon has, for instance, awarded contracts to build
"alternate care" facilities to help relieve pressure on hospitals. The Uniformed Services
University of the Health Sciences is
allowing its doctors and nurses to join the military early. Several months into this
crisis, the Pentagon has finally
used the Defense Production Act to launch a process to produce $133 million worth of
crucial N95 respirator masks and
$415 million worth of N95 critical-care decontamination units. But these are modest acts in
the midst of a pandemic and at a moment when bailouts, fraud, and delays suggest that the
military-industrial complex hasn't proved capable of delivering effectively, even for its own
troops.
Meanwhile, the Beltway bandits that make up that complex have spotted a remarkable
opportunity to secure many of their hopes and dreams. Their success in putting their desires
and their profits ahead of the true national security of Americans was already clear enough in
the staggering pre-pandemic
$1.2 trillion national security budget. (Meanwhile, of course, key federal medical
structures were
underfunded or
disbanded in the Trump administration years, undermining the actual security of the
country.) That kind of disproportionate spending helps explain why the richest nation on the
planet has proven so incapable of providing even the necessary personal protective equipment
for frontline healthcare workers, no less the
testing needed to make this country safer.
The defense industry has asked for, and received, a lot in this time of soaring cases of
disease and death .
While there is undoubtedly a role for the giant weapons makers and for the Pentagon to play in
this crisis, they have shown themselves to be anything but effective lead institutions in the
response to this moment. It's time for the military-industrial complex to truly pay back an
American public that has been beyond generous to it.
Isn't it finally time as well to reduce the "defense" budget and put more of our resources
into the real national security crisis at hand?
Please , before buying a ticket for the Orange Man Hate Train Express, do realize that the
latest cuts of the scientific and medical areas of the federal government are only a very,
very small portion of all the similar cuts since the 1980s; six presidents and two of them
Democratic.
The federal government already only has a shadow of it former capabilities, aside from
murdering people and countries that is. Part of that is because of the sheer inability to use
what is left.
Congress itself is also in the same way as all the supporting research agencies and much,
although not all, administrative staff for both Congress as a whole and the individual has
Congresscritters has been similarly cut since the 1980s; the whole institution is rather like
those ghost units that the United States military used to fool the Germans. Fake radio
traffic, fake camps, fake vehicles (inflatable tanks!) fake noise, anything that the
Wehrmacht might use to verify its information.
Actors, musicians, carpenters, anyone with artistic flare and skills were used including
in mobile fake or propaganda units. IIRC, one or twice a unit of these unarmed artists
accidentally got far too close to some Germans units and the American soldiers got really,
desperately creative with their show. A veteran once interviewed said that they were well
aware that they had inflated tanks while the other side had real tanks. They, like Congress
today, faked out the opposition. However, they only had to do so for maybe 2-3 days while
Congress has become gradually more of a show over the past forty years. It is too bad that we
need a real one right now. Reality really has decided to assert itself.
As well as the fact that the USA tries its very best to make enemies yet really is not in
existential danger from any other nation, its behavior towards its own people continues to
demonstrate that 99% really have no importance and only the rich and the corporations
matter.
The recent rumours (?) that Trump is to discard the only restraint on nuclear war between the
USA and Russia, ie the START Treaty to expire in 2021 despite Russian willingness to renew
it, adds to the evidence that "defense" in the USA means aggression and madness when viewed
with a cool head. Andrei Martyanov's book "Losing Military Supremacy" gives strong
indications that even the famed spending on "defense" is wasted and ineffective.
Cutting their govt provided salary ($174k) would have minimal impact as the average
(median) net worth of congress is over $1 million and they are largely paid after service,
based on their ability to "play ball", by the revolving door placing them in highly paid
lobbyist, consultant, board member, influence peddler positions. Barring congress and other
officials from participating in the revolving door would have a real impact and has been
proposed by many,
including Gary Hart as detailed here but since it will cut down the lucre, it has no
chance.
I don't think it would/will be difficult to retool the military for domestic service. They
are undoubtedly focused now on destruction, "blowing things up" and then blowing things up
some more. But preservation is not beyond their thinking. Proof of this elusive quality is
how successful they have been preserving the military. Theoretically, they answer to the
political leaders. But the political leaders have been undermining their own position in the
blind faith that "the market" can take care of everything. Funny how that mantra never
translated into "Let the market take care of the military." And Congress has proven itself to
be a blithering masochist. They control the purse and they have cut themselves to the bone.
Abdicated all responsibility to and for a nation of 350 million people and let it all go to
hell. I don't blame the military for the mess we are in.
Two men have been arrested for allegedly attempting to sell 1 million KN95 face masks in New York City at double or triple the
original price, violating the Defense Production Act, the Department of Justice said on April
28.
The U.S. Attorney's Office said in a
release Tuesday that the two individuals,
56-year-old Kent Bulloch and 64-year-old William Young, Sr., are being charged in a
criminal complaint unsealed in a federal court in Brooklyn with conspiracy to violate the
Defense Production Act.
The charges come after President Donald Trump on March 23 signed an executive order to
prevent the price gouging and hoarding of "critical supplies" needed to combat
the
CCP virus outbreak.
"We have some people hoarding. We want to prevent price gouging and critical resources are
going to be protected in every form," Trump said at a press conference last month.
The White House said that the president is authorized under the Defense Production Act to
prohibit the hoarding of needed resources.
Between March and April this year, the pair sought out investors to sell the protective
masks for at least double the purchase price, court filings state. They then attempted to
conceal the markup on the masks by falsely claiming in an escrow agreement that profits on the
resale of the masks would not exceed 10 percent. A federal law enforcement agent posed as a
purported investor, the release states.
"As alleged, the defendants conspired to turn a huge profit from the urgent need for
surgical masks in New York during the pandemic," stated U.S. Attorney Richard Donoghue
said in a statement .
"When the attorney general said that those engaged in price gouging should expect a knock
on the door, he meant it -- and when we knock with one hand, we usually have a warrant in the
other."
Bulloch was arrested in California on Monday night and will appear in federal court via
teleconference in San Francisco, while Young will appear via teleconference in Phoenix.
"This is precisely the type of price gouging for which Attorney General Barr created our
nationwide task force," said Craig Carpenito, head of the Department of Justice's nationwide
COVID-19 Hoarding and Price Gouging Task Force.
"The Department of Justice will not allow greedy profiteers to take advantage of the
public during this health crisis."
Last month, Attorney General William Barr emphasized that individuals who stockpile
essential supplies will not be the target of the presidential action, but those who hoard items
to sell with hiked up prices are, and may be subject to investigation.
"If you have a big supply of toilet paper in your house, this is not something you have to
worry about, but if you are sitting on a warehouse with surgical masks, you'll be hearing a
knock on your door," he said.
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) was granted the authority to determine
which items are prohibited for sale in "unnecessary quantities" above the fair market value in
light of the hoarding rules.
The measure aims to ensure that hospitals, first responders, and doctors have sufficient
supplies of critical medical equipment, including personal protective equipment and sanitizing
and disinfecting products.
"By limiting access to these critical resources, those who engage in hoarding and price
gouging could put both our medical workers and the health of the American people at risk,"
the White House said last month. "All Americans must come together to help one another during
this time and help combat the outbreak."
How about the Brooklyn Jew who was arrested for hoarding medical supplies
and then acting like a terrorist, coughing on the FBI agents who were arresting him?
Suspected Mask Profiteer Arrested for Coughing on FBI Agents
Baruch Feldheim, 43, was charged with assaulting federal officers and lying to them
about his accumulation and sale of medical supplies, the U.S. Attorney's office in New
Jersey said Monday in a statement. He wasn't charged with profiteering.
I'm sure poor Baruch is just another victim of anti-Semitism, never mind that he had
hoarded enough medical supplies to outfit a small hospital and was selling his stash at a
700% markup.
Maybe if Jews would stop acting like those anti-Semitic tropes and become part of the human
race, they'd be viewed in a different light?
It's likely Fauci's incorrect simply because just as central planners routinely failed when
it came to planning economic outcomes in the 20th century, so does that same central planning
fail now. Fauci once again may be brilliant, but he's no match for a U.S. economy comprised of
hundreds of millions of individuals making infinite informed decisions every second of every
day.
The same applies to Bill Gates. Some believe that his undeniable genius as a businessman
positions him to knowledgeably opine on how we the U.S. and the world can come back from the
virus. Gates has observed that businesses would be troubled with or without the lockdowns,
unemployment would be higher with or without them, so the plan should be to continue them until
we're better situated in terms of a vaccine.
Is Gates right? It's once again difficult to know. For one, his analysis ignores the
"unseen"; as in what would individuals and businesses have done had the response of politicians
to the virus been something like "You're all adults. Be careful."
If so, it's not unreasonable to suggest that Fauci, Gates and other intelligent individuals
would have strongly called for Americans to shelter-in-place, and tens of millions would have
done just that. At the same time, Elon Musk and investors like Michael Burry might have
responded in more intrepid fashion; calling for individuals and businesses to work around a
virus of unknown lethality.
GSK partnered with Bill Gates to produce the Covid-19 Vaccine. GSK has been found guilty
for several criminal federal offenses, bribes and health violations, and paid Billions in
lawsuits including for birth defects & brain damage. https://www. drugwatch.com/manufacturers/ glaxosmithkline/ #BillGates#QAnon#q
Promising
his share of $450 million of $1.2 billion to eradicate polio, Gates took control of
India's National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (NTAGI), which mandated up to
50
doses (Table 1) of polio vaccines through
overlapping immunization programs to children before the age of five. Indian doctors
blame the Gates campaign for a devastating non-polio
acute flaccid paralysis (NPAFP) epidemic that paralyzed 490,000 children beyond
expected rates between 2000 and 2017. In 2017, the Indian government dialed back Gates'
vaccine regimen and
asked Gates and his vaccine policies to leave India. NPAFP rates dropped precipitously.
Yesterday a preprint of a collaborative study involving medical, genomic and virology
researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico-US, University Of Sheffield-UK,
Duke University in North Carolina-US, Sheffield Teaching Hospital-UK and the
NHS-Foundation-UK, was released. No quacks there.
It shows that the Spike elements of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is mutating
It uses real-time mutation tracking in the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, specifically on the
Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most
vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics.
It monitored changes over the last two months from the early strains in Wuhan to the
specific strains across the globe in conjunction with the GISAID data.
They focused on 14 specific sites on the virus and 2 Spike mutations were of particular
interests: D614G and S943P.
It was found that D614G is increasing in frequency at an alarming rate, indicating a
fitness advantage relative and enables more rapid spread. S943P is located in the fusion core
region, and is of particular interest as it is concerned with spreading via
recombination.
D614 is located on the surface of the spike protein protomer, where it can form contacts
with the neighboring protomer. The mutation allows from a structurally perspective more easy
'binding' to human host cells through a variety of ways and from a immunological function, it
disrupts antibody functions trying to attack it.
Hence the D614G mutation not only increases transmissibility, but also impacts severity of
disease.
The S943P mutation however allows recombinant strategies for the virus to evolve.
The study of the other mutation sites L5F, L8V V367F, G476S, and V483A all indicate that
he virus can easily and evolve depending and conditions, displaying characteristics that it
is even far more potent than HIV. There were also many other sites of mutations that the
study covered.
So thats not very encouraging and doesn't bode well. Not conclusive but just means this
needs watching.
Well, walking your dog around the home for 5 minutes with no other people around, will not
spread anything and will keep a better mental health. Italians have gone from total ignorance
to total isolation - another extreme. Unfortunately, many people are undisciplined and
careless, so there's no other choice. By the way, stop running: you may already have the
virus, making any physical effort will only waste your body energy to fight the virus
Its not the people in the open countryside or walking in the streets or relaxing in the
park spreading the virus its when people travel together in buses, trains or any crowded
environment.
The Camorra are scared of the Black Axe , Maybe if the mayors stopped turning a blind eye
to the growing threat of criminal gangs on there streets instead of bullying there citizens
Italy would be a safer place to live .
They've censored all the funny bits. Like how the mayor with the glasses says the f word a
lot and the one talking about hairdressing says the casket is closed, noones going to see
your new haircut when yo dead' 😂
i love their dark humour. viva italia! what a tremendous loss of the country's elderly
population, I love italian elderly, they have so much wisdom and charisma. what a loss.
The decision of whether or not to embrace coronamania is not based on statistical analysis
of the specific number of nursing home residents or obese black people that are likely to die.
We are witnessing a mass hysteria. It is collective temporary insanity induced by the media.
The gulf between skeptics and true believers is underlined by personal disposition; those who
are inclined to prioritize personal responsibility, freedom and suspicion of authority are
pushing back against the lockdown, while those who are prone to neuroticism, risk aversion,
safety prioritization and trust in authority are embracing the hysteria. For most people, the
data becomes simply a post-hoc rationalization for a position that was already determined by
their psychological profile. Given the masculine/feminine dichotomy, it has also become a
partisan political issue, which has poisoned any public debate over the merits of the various
claims.
...As a healthy and athletic 35-year-old, I am not at risk for dying. According to the CDC's
own numbers, I have less than a 1 in 1000 chance of dying, even if I get sick enough to go to
the hospital. This is approximately
the same risk I have of dying from drowning or burning to death in a fire. By CDC math, I
am ten times more likely to die in a car crash than I am to die of the coronavirus. For me
personally, the coronavirus falls squarely into the category of "acceptable risks." I believe
that I had a right to make that choice. However, here I sit, locked in my house, because people
like Brad Griffin lobbied for this insane experiment.
This government that Brad Griffin demands we hand over total control of our lives to has
overseen the mass import and distribution of opioid drugs, which are now killing 70,000 people
a year. This government refuses virtually any regulation of the food industry, which leads to
the deaths of 650,000 people every year from heart disease. This government sent thousands of
young Americans to die in Iraq and Afghanistan for the purpose of forwarding the regional goals
of Israel, based on a series of hoaxes. It's very difficult for me to buy the idea that this
government is particularly concerned about my health.
Ezekiel Emmanuel, a dual Democrat political operative and credentialed expert, has been a
prime evangelist for this lockdown. He was at the forefront of changing the narrative from
"prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed" to "we must continue the lockdown until the
virus is eradicated." He is currently serving as Joe Biden's chief advisor on medical issues.
While developing Barack Obama's healthcare plan, Emmanuel was the core proponent of what became
known as "death panels," a policy that would limit end of life care for the elderly in the name
of prioritizing the greater good of society. And he is now concerned about old people dying of
the flu?
Brad Griffin claimed in his gotcha manifesto that anyone who even dares ask questions about
whether or not it is desirable to surrender all control of our lives to this government, all
the way down to our ability to feed ourselves, is a "libertarian." I assert that even if you
actually believed that this coronavirus is a Biblical plague, that the only possible solution
to it is to lock everyone in their houses (while also letting them gather whenever they want at
supermarkets), including healthy young people whose chance of experiencing complications from
the virus is statistically nonexistent, and you were fine with sacrificing the entire economy,
putting what will probably amount to at least 50% of the population out of work, destroying
virtually all small businesses, creating a massive new homeless population that is going to
number in the millions and vastly inflating the suicide and drug abuse rates – even then,
it would be appropriate to ask if this government is going to take advantage of this
situation.
Brad Griffin's position is that we all just need to shut up and do as we're told.
While claiming that there is no chance whatsoever that the government will exploit this
situation, Brad Griffin also takes the position that this will not collapse the economy. He's
the only person on the entire internet I've seen saying that. The fun part is, whereas we will
never know if we would have had as easy of a time as Sweden if we did as they did and refused
the lockdown, we are going to know very soon whether the government is going to agree to give
us all of our Constitutional rights back and whether or not the economy has collapsed. You will
all be able to come back here and see my position in contrast with Brad Griffin's position, and
decide who was right and who was wrong.
I have no idea why Brad Griffin and the rest of the costumed neo-Nazi community is promoting
a total surrender to the government in the name of safety. Some people might say, "the
COINTELPRO chief should be fired, because this has gotten ridiculous."
I won't say that. I'll just say this: Brad Griffin, you are not my mommy. I already have a
mommy. In fact, we all have mommies. We all love our mommies, but none of us are looking for a
second mommy.
Dunno Andrew. This is not rocket science and we all doesn't have to be Werner Von Einsteins
(sic) to figure it out. Because if nobody is an expert, but the experts, so what?
It's called jujitsu.
IOW are the so called experts self consistent and coherent?
Rather, the WHO/CDC organizations and the IMHE and Imperial College reports are bought and
paid for hirelings of Bill Gates. The same who took how many times and versions before he got
Windows right?
Fauci in 2000 was still calling AIDS a plague threatening the world and likewise the 2009
Swine Flu.
(That something that was transmitted by sticking something in your arm or up the poop chute
was supposed to seriously threaten heterosexuals who weren't drug addicts passed expert peer
review is par for the course.)
Likewise for anybody who has lived through the Asian, Hong Kong, Swine, Bird, Nile River,
Zika, AIDS, Ebola, SARS, MERS etc. epidemics, some herd immunity has been developed regarding
the Chicken Little/Boy Who Cried Wolf fairy tale
So at first it was 2-3 Million – even with mitigation i.e. cower in
place/anti-social distancing etc. – then 100-200 k and now 60-80k which is a bad flu
season. Hmmm.
Neither does "flattening the curve" reduce the overall numbers. It only spreads them out.
So now the hospitals are empty/going broke.
And we're going to empty the jails so the criminals don't get sick there is
room for all the people that don't wear masks.
But what I really want to know is if there really is a mask shortage, how come nobody has
snitched on Antifa and the KKK. It would seem that this is the time for them to come into
their own as the real heros of the debacle. (Nah, cops and robbers is only for kids.)
IOW give me liberty or six feet and a mask blindfold so we'll shut
up/suck it up.
People and governments always invoke the safety and security of the majority when they are
taking away rights for "our own good," just like the Patriot Act did. It's an old
playbook...
There is
science which should be informing decisions. But while claiming a small rally in Denver
will cost lives, or Florida will kill people by opening its beaches, the same voices remain
silent as NYC keeps its subway running 24/7. The public beach versus public transportation
debate came as a new study showed
that NYC's "multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator -- if not the principal
transmission vehicle -- of coronavirus infection," seeding the virus throughout the city.
Without a superspreader like the subway it can be contained locally. It is tragic when the
virus rips through a nursing home or meatpacking plant (it is a virus after all, it will go
viral), but all of those together barely touch a week's body count in New York. Shut down mass
transport.
We can put most people back to work with limited risk; the protesters are right. The virus
kills a very specific patient. About half the
dead are over age 65. Less than one percent of deaths are under age 44. Almost
94 percent of the dead in any age group had serious underlying medical issues (about half
had hypertension and/or were obese, a third had lung problems). The death toll in NY/NJ under
total lockdown: over 27,000. Death toll in much more densely populated Tokyo with "smart"
lockdown: 98.
About
22 percent of New Yorkers already have the virus antibody and thus expected immunity. One
logical implication of this -- that large numbers already have or had the virus, and that it is
harmless to them -- is simply ignored. Quarantine/social distancing should be for those most
vulnerable so we can stop wrecking all of society with cruder measures. Hospitals should
separate patients by age. No need to keep kids from school, especially if that means isolating
them inside a multigenerational household. Let them wear soggy paper masks to class, even tin
foil on their heads, if it makes things easier. Online
classes are lame and
America doesn't need a new generation dumber
than the current one.
The New York-New Jersey area, with roughly half the dead for the entire nation, practices
full-on social distancing while Georgia was one of the last states to implement a weaker
stay-at-home policy. Yet as Georgia re-opens, the NY/NJ death count is over 27,000 . Georgia is 892. NYC
alone continues adding around 500 bodies to the pile every day, even with its bowling alleys
closed.
We judge risk versus gain for every other cause of death. We wear condoms. We watch our
diets. Time to do the same for the virus. As for lockdowns, we may not even be judging them
accurately. Some 22 states have had fewer than 100 deaths. Only 15 states had total deaths for
the entireduration of the crisis higher than NYC's current 500 a day. The
original goal of lockdowns, to buy time for the health care system (and most resources were
never needed due to over-estimates of the viral impact), has passed. If the new goal is Virus
Zero it will never come. If the real goal is to harm Trump we'll have to put up with this
without serious discussion until November.
A Stanford doctor
nails it: "Strictly protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick and open
most workplaces with some prudent large-group precautions. This would allow the essential
socializing to generate immunity among those with minimal risk of serious consequence, while
saving lives, preventing overcrowding of hospitals, and limiting the enormous harms compounded
by continued total isolation."
We are fretting and frittering away our national muscle watching TV about a bigamous tiger
keeper. There are too many who want this isolation to continue indefinitely, a pathetic nation
whose primary industries for its young people are camming and GoFundMe. Politics focuses on
viral deaths, but the Reaper keeps a more accurate tally: deaths from despair, from hunger (two
million new people became food insecure in NYC
since the virus), financial losses (26 million Americans have filed for
unemployment ), mental health issues, and abuse (domestic
murders during the viral months in NYC outstripped the total from 2019). In some ultimate
irony, parents are postponing standard childhood
vaccinations for fear of bringing their kids to medical facilities.
It is the reaction to the pandemic that exhausts us, not the pandemic itself. So when
someone claims it is Money vs. Life they miss the real answer: It's both. It should not be
taboo to discuss this.
This is a classic identification problem, and efficacy depends on two things: false positives
and false negatives.
False positives: Any app will have a precise definition of a contact: let's say
it's less than six feet for more than ten minutes. The false positive rate is the percentage
of contacts that don't result in transmissions. This will be because of several reasons. One,
the app's location and proximity systems -- based on GPS and Bluetooth -- just aren't
accurate enough to capture every contact. Two, the app won't be aware of any extenuating
circumstances, like walls or partitions. And three, not every contact results in
transmission; the disease has some transmission rate that's less than 100% (and I don't know
what that is).
False negatives: This is the rate the app fails to register a contact when an
infection occurs. This also will be because of several reasons. One, errors in the app's
location and proximity systems. Two, transmissions that occur from people who don't have the
app (even Singapore didn't get above a 20% adoption rate for the app). And three, not every
transmission is a result of that precisely defined contact -- the virus sometimes travels
further.
Assume you take the app out grocery shopping with you and it subsequently alerts you of a
contact. What should you do? It's not accurate enough for you to quarantine yourself for two
weeks. And without ubiquitous, cheap, fast, and accurate testing, you can't confirm the app's
diagnosis. So the alert is useless.
Similarly, assume you take the app out grocery shopping and it doesn't alert you of any
contact. Are you in the clear? No, you're not. You actually have no idea if you've been
infected.
The end result is an app that doesn't work. People will post their bad experiences on
social media, and people will read those posts and realize that the app is not to be trusted.
That loss of trust is even worse than having no app at all.
It has nothing to do with privacy concerns. The idea that contact tracing can be done with
an app, and not human health professionals, is just plain dumb.
After WWI, the distinguished British economist Edwin Cannan was asked, somewhat
reproachfully, what he did during the terrible war years. He replied: "I protested." The
present article is a similar protest against the current lockdown policies put into place in
most countries of the Western world to confront the current coronavirus pandemic.
Here in France, where I live and work, President Macron announced on Thursday, March 12,
that all schools and universities would be shut down on the following Monday. On that Monday,
then, he appeared on TV again and announced that the entire population would be confined
starting the very next day. The only exceptions would be "necessary" activities, especially
medical services, energy production, security, and food production and distribution. This
policy response was apparently coordinated with other European governments. Italy, Germany, and
Spain have applied essentially the same measures.
I think that these policies are understandable and well intentioned. Like many other
commentators, I also think that they are wrongheaded, harmful, and potentially disastrous. An
old French proverb says that the way to hell is plastered with good intentions. Unfortunately,
it seems as though the present policies are no exception.
My protest concerns the basic ideas that have motivated these policies. They were clearly
enunciated by President Macron in his TV address of March 12. Here he made three claims that I
found most intriguing.
The first one was that his government was going to apply drastic measures to "save lives"
because the country was "at war" with the COVID-19 virus. He repeatedly used the phrase "we are
at war" ( nous sommes en guerre ) throughout his talk.
Secondly, he insisted right at the very beginning that it was imperative to heed the advice
of "the experts." Monsieur Macron literally said that we all should have to listen to and
follow the advice of the people "who know" -- meaning who know the problem and who know how
best to deal with it.
His third major point was that this emergency situation had revealed how important it was to
enjoy a state-run system of public healthcare. How lucky are we to have such a system and to be
able to rely on it, now, in the heat of the war against the virus! Unsurprisingly, the
president insinuated that this system would be reinforced in the future.
Now, these are not the private ideas of Monsieur Macron. They are shared by all major
governments in the EU and by many governments in other parts of the world. They are also shared
by all major political parties here in France, as well as by President Macron's predecessors.
Therefore, the purpose of the following remarks is not to criticise the president of this
beautiful country, or his government, or any person in particular. The purpose is to criticise
the ideas on which the current policy is based.
I do not have any epidemiological knowledge or expertise. But I do have some acquaintance
with questions of social organisation, and I am also intimately familiar with scientific
research and with the organisation of scientific research. My protest does not concern the
medical assessment of the COVID-19 virus and its propagation. It concerns the public policies
designed to confront this problem.
As far as I can see, these policies are based on one extraordinary claim and two fundamental
errors. I will discuss them in turn.
An Extraordinary Claim
The extraordinary claim is that wartime measures such as confinement and shutdowns of
commercial activity are justified by the objective of "saving lives" that are at risk because
of the burgeoning coronavirus pandemic.
Over here in Europe, we have heard American presidents use such expressions since the 1960s,
as in "the war on poverty" or the "war on drugs" or "the war on terrorism" or more recently
"the war on climate change." Odd language of this sort seemed to be one of America's many
eccentricities. It also did not escape our notice that none of these would-be wars have ever
been won. Despite the great sums of money that the US government has spent to fight them,
despite the new state institutions that were put in place, and despite the great and growing
infringements on the economic and civil liberties of ordinary Americans, the problems
themselves never went away. Quite the opposite; they were perpetuated and aggravated.
Most of the European governments have now joined ranks with the Americans and consider that
they, too, are at war -- with a virus. It is therefore appropriate to insist that this is
metaphorical language. A war is a military conflict designed to protect the state -- and thus
of the very institution that is commonly held to guarantee the lives and liberties of the
citizens -- against malicious attack from an outside power, usually another state. In a war,
the very existence of the state is under attack. Clearly, this is not so in the present
case.
Moreover, there can be no war with a virus, simply because a virus does not act . At most,
therefore, the word "war" can be used here metaphorically. It then serves as a cover and
justification of infringements of the very civil and economic liberties that the state is
supposed to protect.
Now, in the traditional conception, the state is supposed to protect and promote the common
good. Protecting the lives of the citizens might therefore, arguably, justify massive state
interventions. But then the very first question should be: How many lives are at stake?
Government epidemiologists, in their most dire estimates -- whose factual basis is still not
solidly established -- have considered that about 10 percent of the infected persons might be
in need of hospital care and that a large part of those would die. It was also already known by
mid-March that this mortal threat in the great majority of cases concerned very old people, the
average COVID-19 victim being around eighty years of age.
The claim that wartime measures, which threaten the economic livelihood of the great
majority of the population and also the lives of the poorest and most fragile people of the
world economy -- a point on which I will say more below -- are in order to save the lives of a
few, most of whom are close to death anyway, is an extraordinary claim, to say the least.
Without going into any detail, let me just highlight that this contention squarely
contradicts the abortion policies that Western governments have applied since the 1970s. There,
the reasoning was exactly the other way around. The personal liberty and comfort of the women
who wished to abort their children was given priority over the right to lives of these yet
unborn children. According to World Health Organization (WHO) figures, each and every year,
some 40–50 million babies are aborted worldwide. In 2018 alone, more than 224,000 babies
have been aborted in France. However serious the current COVID-19 pandemic may yet become, it
will remain a small fraction of these casualties. Not only have governments neglected to "save
lives" when it comes to abortions. They have in point of fact condoned and funded the killing
of human beings on a massive scale.
They still do so now. Here in France, all hospital services have been run down to free up
capacity for the treatment of COVID-19 victims -- all except one. Abortion services run
unabated and have recently been reinforced by the legal obligation for hospital staff to
provide abortions (previously it was possible for individual doctors to refuse this out of
personal conviction).
The pretention that drastic policies are justified in order to "save lives" also flies into
face of past policy in other areas. In the past, too, it would have been possible to "save
lives" by allocating a greater chunk of the government's budget to state-run hospitals, by
further reducing speed limits on highways, by increasing foreign aid to countries on the brink
of starvation, by outlawing smoking, etc. To be sure, I do not wish to make a case for such
policies. My point is that it has never been the sole or highest goal of government policy to
"save lives" or to extend them as much as possible. In fact, such a policy would be utterly
absurd and impractical, as I will explain further below.
It is difficult to avoid the impression that the "war to save lives" is a farce. The truth
seems to be that the COVID-19 crisis has been used to extend the powers of the state. The
government obtains the power to control and paralyse all other human concerns in the name of
prolonging the lives of a select few. Never has this principle been admitted in a free country.
Few tyrannies have managed to extend their power this far.
The current beneficiaries of these new powers are the elder citizens and a few others. But
make no mistake. It is likely that their destinies only serve as a pretext to justify the
creation of new and unheard-of powers for the state. Once these new powers are firmly
established, there is no reason why the elderly should remain especially dear to those in
power. It must be feared that the very opposite will be the case.
Now, in order to avoid any misunderstanding, I do not claim that the present French
government seeks to grab power over life-and-death decisions, or dictatorial powers to
introduce socialism through the backdoor under the cover of COVID-19. In fact, I cannot imagine
that Monsieur Macron and his government are driven by sinister motivations. I think they have
the best of all intentions. But the point here is precisely that there is a difference between
doing good and wishing to do good.
A Grave Error: Rule by Experts
So far, I have commented on a political issue. But there are also matters of fact. And this
brings me to the two aforementioned errors.
The first fundamental error is to hold that is that the experts know and all the rest of us
should trust them and do as they tell us.
The truth is that even the most brilliant academics and practitioners have in-depth
knowledge only in a very narrow field; that they have no particular expertise when it comes to
devising new practical solutions; and that their professional biases are likely to induce them
into various errors when it comes to solving large-scale social problems such as the current
pandemic. This is patent in my own discipline, economics, but not really different in other
academic fields. Let me explain this in some more detail.
The kind of knowledge that can be acquired by scientific research is just a preliminary to
action. Research gathers facts and yields partial knowledge of causal connections.
Economics tells us, for example, that the size of the money stock is positively related to the
level of unit prices. But this is not the whole picture. Other causes come into play as well.
Real-world decision-making cannot just rely on facts and other bits of partial knowledge. It
must weigh the influence of a multitude of circumstances, not all of which are well known, and
not all of which are directly related to the problem at stake. It must come to balanced
conclusions, sometimes under rapidly changing circumstances.
In this respect, the typical expert is no expert at all . How many laureates of the Nobel
Prize in economics have earned any significant money by investing their savings? How many
virologists or epidemiologists have established and operated a privately run clinic or
laboratory? I would never trust a colleague who had the folly to volunteer to direct a central
planning board. I do not trust an epidemiologist who has the temerity to parade as a COVID-19
czar. I do not believe a government that tells me that it somehow knows "the experts" who know
best how to protect and run an entire country.
Furthermore, consider that scientific knowledge is, at best, a state of the art. The
precious thing about science is not to be seen in the results, which are hardly ever final.
What is crucial is the scientific process , which is a competitive process based
on disagreements about the validity and relevance of different research hypotheses. This
process is especially important when it comes to new problems -- such as a new virus
which spreads in unheard-of ways and has unheard-of effects. It is precisely in such
circumstances, when the stakes are high, that the impartial confrontation and competitive
exploration of different points of view is of paramount importance. Research czars and central
planners are here of no use at all. They are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
A government which bets the house on one horse and hands the management of a pandemic over
to a single person or institution achieves, at best, only one thing: that all citizens receive
the same treatment. But it thereby slows down the very process which leads to the discovery of
the best treatments, and which makes these treatments rapidly available to the greatest number
of patients.
It is also important to keep in mind that academics -- and this includes epidemiologists
just as much as economists and lawyers -- are typically government employees and that this
colours their approach to any practical problem. They are likely to think that serious
problems, especially large-scale problems touching most or all citizens, should be solved by
state intervention. Many of them are in fact incapable of imagining anything else.
This problem is reinforced through a nefarious selection bias . Indeed, those
academics who opt for an administrative or political career, and who make it into the higher
ranks of the civil service, cannot fail to be convinced that state action is suitable and
necessary to solve the most important problems. Otherwise they would hardly have chosen such
careers, and it would also be virtually out of the question that for them to end up in
leadership positions. A good example among many others is the current WHO director Tedros
Adhanom, who I understand is a former member of a communist [party in Ethiopia] organisation.
The point is not that a WHO director should have no political opinions or that Dr. Adhanom is
an evil or incompetent person. The point is that it is unsurprising that men like him occupy
leadership positions in state-run organisations, and that the approach he envisions to deal
with a pandemic is likely to be coloured by his personal political preconceptions, not only by
medical information and good intentions.
Another Momentous Error: Neglect of Economics
Along with such selection bias comes a peculiar ignorance in regard to the functioning of
complex social orders. This brings me to the second fundamental error that vitiates the
COVID-19 policies. It consists in thinking that civil and economic liberties are some sort of a
consumers' good -- maybe even a luxury good -- that can only be allowed and enjoyed in good
times. When the going gets tough, the government needs to take over and all others should step
back -- into confinement if necessary.
This error is typical for people who have spent too much time among politicians and in
public administrations. The truth is that civil and economic liberty is the most powerful
vehicle to confront virtually any problem. (The notable exception is that liberty does not help
to consolidate political power.) And the reverse side of the same truth is that governments
typically fail whenever they set out to solve social problems, even very ordinary
problems. Think of state-run education or housing projects. I will return to this point further
below.
Because of the mechanics of the political process, governments are liable to overreact to
any problem that is big enough to make it into the news and to become an issue for voters.
Governments will then typically zoom in on this one problem. In their perception, it becomes
the most important of all problems that humanity has to solve. If such a government has no clue
about economics, it is liable to propose one-plan technical solutions that completely neglect
the social and political dimension of what it means to solve a problem. In the present case,
the "experts" have blithely proposed to shut down the entire economy because this is what
"works."
Now, I do not contest that shutdowns are effective in slowing down the transmission speed of
a pandemic. I have no opinion at all on the most suitable way to deal with pandemics or other
problems of virology or medicine. But as an economist I know the crucial importance of the fact
that there is never ever only one single goal in human life. There is always a great and
diverse array of objectives that each of us pursues. The practical problem for each person is
to strike the right balance, most notably to act in the right temporal sequence. Translated to
the level of the economy as a whole, the problem is to allocate the right amounts of time and
material resources to the different objectives.
For most people, protecting their own lives and the lives of their families has a very high
importance. But irrespective of how important this objective is, in practice it cannot be
perfectly achieved. To protect my life, I need food. Thus, I need to work. Thus, I need to
expose myself to all kinds of risks that are associated with leaving the safe space of my house
and encountering nature and other humans. In short, human lives cannot be perfectly
protected, even by those who are ready to subordinate everything else to doing so. It is a
practical impossibility. When it comes to protecting lives, the only question is: How
much am I willing to risk my life and the lives of those who depend on me? And it more than
often turns out that by risking much one protects best. What holds true for the eternal life of
one's soul also holds true for the mundane material life down here on earth: "For whoever
wishes to save his life will lose it, but whoever loses his life for my sake will find it"
(Matt 16:25).
Now, most people do not actually cherish the preservation of their lives, or the extension
of their life spans, as the single highest goals. Smokers, meat eaters, drinkers prefer a
shorter, more joyful life, to a longer life of abstinence. Policemen, soldiers, and many
citizens are more than often driven by the love of their country and by a love of justice. They
would rather die than live under slavery or tyranny. Priests would risk their lives rather than
forsake their commitment. A believer in Christ would rather risk death than apostasy. Sailors
risk their own lives to provide for their families. Medical doctors and nurses are willing to
risk their lives to help patients with infectious diseases. Rugby players and racecar drivers
risk their lives not only for the glory of winning, but also for the excitement and
satisfaction that comes with performing well under danger. Many young men and women gladly
trade the excitement of dance for the risk of catching COVID-19.
All of these people, in one way or another, make material contributions to the livelihood of
all others. Smokers and drinkers ultimately pay for their consumption, not with money (which
serves them only as a tool for exchange with others), but with the goods and services that they
themselves provide to others. If they could not indulge in their consumption, their motivation
to help others would diminish or vanish altogether. If policemen, soldiers, sailors, and nurses
did not have a relatively low risk-aversion, their services would be provided only at much
higher cost, and possibly not at all.
The preferences and activities of all market participants are interdependent. In the market
order, each one helps all others in pursuing their goals, even if these goals may ultimately
contradict his own. The meat eater might be a mechanic who repairs the cars of vegetarians, or
an accountant who does the bookkeeping for a vegetarian NGO. The soldier also protects
pacifists. Among the pacifists may be farmers who grow the food consumed by soldiers, etc.
It is impossible to disentangle all of these connections, and it is not necessary. The point
is that in a market economy the factors determining the production of any economic good are
not just technical . Through exchange, through the division of labour, all production
processes are interrelated. The effectiveness of doctors and nurses and their assistants does
not only depend on the people who directly supply them with the materials that they need.
Indirectly, it also depends on the activities of all other producers who do not have the
slightest thing to do with medical services in hospitals. Even in an emergency situation, it is
therefore necessary to respect the needs and priorities of these others. Locking them away,
locking them down, far from facilitating the operation of hospitals, will eventually come to
haunt the latter as well when supply chains wither and consumer staples start lacking.
Now one might contend that such consequences only obtain in the longer run and that a
government confronted with an emergency situation needs to neglect long-run issues and focus on
the short-run emergency. This sounds reasonable, which is why governments have appealed to
arguments of this sort with great regularity in other areas, most notably to justify
expansionary macroeconomic policies, which also trade off the present against the future.
But the reasoning is flawed in the present case. The root of the error is to consider the
COVID-19 virus an immediate threat to human lives whereas the lockdown policies are not. But
this is not the case. How many people have committed suicide because the lockdown measures have
driven them to depression and insanity? How many did not receive life-saving treatments because
hospital beds and staff were restricted to COVID-19 victims? How many have become victims at
home because of the lockdown-induced aggression of their spouses? How many have lost their
jobs, their companies, their wealth, and will be driven to suicide and aggression in the months
to come? How many people in the poorest countries of the world economy are now driven to
starvation because households and firms in the developed world have cut back demand for their
products?
The inevitable conclusion is that, even in the short run, lockdown policies are costing the
lives of many people who would not otherwise have died. In the short and in the long
run, the current lockdown policy does not serve to "save lives," but to save the lives of
some people at the expense of the lives of others .
Conclusion
The lockdown policies are understandable as a panic reaction of political leaders who want
to do the right thing and who have to make decisions with incomplete information. But upon
reflection -- and certainly in hindsight -- they are not good policy. The lockdowns of the past
month have not been conducive to the common good. Although they have saved the lives of many
people, they have also endangered -- and are still endangering -- the lives and livelihoods of
many others. They have created a new and dangerous political precedent. They have reinforced
the political regime uncertainty -- to use Robert Higgs's felicitous phrase -- that bears on
the choices of individuals, families, communities, and firms in the years to come.
The right thing to do now is to abandon these policies swiftly and entirely. The citizens of
free countries are able to protect themselves. They can act individually and collectively. They
cannot act well when they are locked down. They will greet any honest and competent advice on
what they can and should do, upon which they will proceed responsibly, whether alone or in
coordination with others.
The greatest danger right now is in the perpetuation of the ill-conceived lockdowns , most
notably under the pretext of "managing the transition" or other spurious justifications. Is it
really necessary to walk through the endless list of management failures of government agents?
Is it necessary to remind ourselves that people who have no skin in the game are irresponsible
in the true sense of the word? These would-be managers should have stayed out of the picture
from the very beginning. Instead, so far, they have managed to get everybody else out of the
picture. If they are allowed to go on, they might very well turn the present calamity -- big as
it is -- into a true disaster.
The historical precedent that comes to mind is the Great Depression of the 1930s. Then, too,
the free world was confronted with a painful recession, when the implosion of the stock market
bubble entailed a deflationary meltdown of the financialised economy, along with massive
unemployment. This recession , dire as it was, could have remained short, as all the
previous recessions in the US and elsewhere had been. Instead it was turned into a multiyear
depression , thanks to folly of FDR and his government, who had the pretention of managing
the recovery with government spending, nationalisations, and price controls.
It is not too late. It is never too late to recognise an honest error and correct a wrong
course of action. Let us hope that President Macron, President Trump, and all other people of
goodwill may rapidly come to their senses. COVID-19
Lockdown: A Global Human Experiment *
Note to readers: please click the share buttons above or below. Forward this article to your
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This article was
originally published on LewRockwell.com.
I want to thank b again for the best updates on current events on the internet.
The most astonishing thing is watching an Empire collapse with nobody in charge by
self-immolation. China, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand and Australia
show that old fashion public health institutions by testing, tracing and isolation of the
infected can defeat the Wuhan Coronavirus. The West cannot and will not do this. Testing and
Tracking in the USA is a total SNAFU. Saving more lives would require the restoration of
democracy and use of the Plutocrat's wealth to fight the pandemic. The Elite are quite
unwilling to do this. The unprepared haphazard reopening of the economy will kill hundreds of
thousands more Americans. If North America breaks apart into nuclear armed regional states,
millions more will die. Together with Climate Change, Armageddon approaches. VP Mike Pence
knows he has been selected to be uplifted. Besides stupidity, why else would he walk around
Mayo Clinic without a face mask greeting COVID-19 patients and doctors?
May be it is valuable as a placebo treatment... "Remdesivir (imho) has no effect whatsoever,
positive or negative, so it will work as a placebo and a show of 'good treatment'. On the whole
ppl are apt to judge that what is expensive (as opposed to dirt cheap and used by lesser folks)
and can be touted as 'innovative' (hmm..) is well -classier!- therefore more effective!" An
indirect result might be that less /very seriously affected/ patients are put on vents.
(Intubated with breathing done outside the body.)
I think this remdesivir authorization was a genius move by the Trump administration. So
genial even Dr. Fauci must have immediately understood the catch and endorsed it, as it is
probable the drug must not have any grave collateral effects on the patients (as is the case
with hydroxycloroquine).
First of all, remdesivir helps one of America's biggest pharmaceuticals (Gilead).
Therefore, it will also help American capitalist reproduction.
Second, it will trigger a nationwide placebo effect thanks to widespread optimism and
petit-bourgeois euphoria, thus lowering the death rates (though not the infection rates), and
giving Trump an election boost in crucial areas (by the astroturf protests pattern, important
swing states in the Midwest).
Third, by the time the efficacy of remdesivir is debunked, the Trump administration can
simply state they acted with good will, with the "evidence" available at the time, and gently
apologize. It is the perfect plausible deniability.
Maybe its working for him, but then again maybe not: As of last week He's been transferred
out of the New Jersey prison, but is now being held in the NYC "Jeffery Epstein Memorial
Euthanasia Facility" aka the Metropolitan Detention Center", (yikes!) awaiting relocation to a
minimum security (?) Allenwood Federal prison in PA.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/pharma-bro-martin-shkreli-moved-from-prison-after-rule-breaking.html
M. Shkreli states: The industry response to COVID-19 is inadequate. All biopharmaceutical
companies should be responding with all resources to combat this health emergency. Donations
from these very valuable companies do not go far enough. The biopharmaceutical industry has a
large braintrust of talent that is not working on this problem as companies have deprioritized
or even abandoned infectious disease research. Medicinal chemists, structural biologists,
enzymologists and assay development and research biology departments at EVERY pharmaceutical
company should be put to work until COVID-19 is no more.
Recent developments and insights point out that SARS-COV-2 is not primarily a respiratory
virus, it is mostly an epithelial virus. The lung surface is composed of epithelial cells,
but so are many other organs in the body.
The virus binds to ACE2 receptors that are richly expressed in epithelial cells. ACE2
stands for the angiotensin II converting enzyme. By this binding action, it disables the
function of this enzyme and therein lies the mechanism of the problems it causes in the
body.
A cascade of reactions surrounding the angiotensin system results in the creation of, and
acerbation of pre-existing oxidative stress at the cellular level. This is why the actual
risk categories turn out not to be asthmatics and other pulmonary patients, but instead
diabetics, hypertensics and people with coronary disease.
Many COVID-19 victims die not from ARDS, but from sudden heart attacks, strokes and renal
failure, in many cases systemic blood clotting is found. The "ground glass" lung photos are
in fact showing pervasive alveolar bleeding.
Check out the latest of many highly informative MedCram videos on the topic:
The pessimistic models predicted millions of deaths if no measures were taken to slow the
disease. In nearly every country measures were taken to slow the disease. But now
conservatives complain that hey, no millions of deaths! So why was it necessary to go into
confinement?
The people who cite the success of social distancing measures as the reason social distancing
measures weren't necessary (or were too rigorous) seem to be using the same logic as certain
anti-vaxxers who use the success of vaccinations to buttress their contention that
vaccinations are unnecessary.
It is always safer to go with the worst projections. It is better to give out a sigh of
relief when they do not come true than a scream of pain when they do.
Martin Kulldorff is a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School. In his opinion,
general lockdown strategies can reduce transmission and death counts in the short term. But
this strategy cannot be considered successful until lockdowns are removed without the disease
resurging. So the best policy is to go for herd immunity. The sooner that is achieved, the
more lives will be saved in the long term.
Herd immunity arrives after a certain still unknown percentage of the population has
acquired immunity. It will never be achieved unless most people who get the disease and
survive, are immune to it afterwards.
1) We don't know whether getting Covid-19 gives you immunity.
2) Going full fledged for herd immunity quickly, i.e. 60-70% infection rate, means in the
U.S. perhaps 1 million dead. One million dead over the course of a couple of months looks a
lot worse for a society than one million dead over the course of a couple of years.
"Going full fledged for herd immunity quickly, i.e. 60-70% infection rate, means in the U.S.
perhaps 1 million dead."
You just proved the author's point.
Also, of course we don't know for 100% certain that having had the virus gives one
immunity since its a brand new virus, but it would be a very rare virus indeed if that
doesn't turn out to be the case. It is overwhelmingly expected, but we don't know for sure
yet.
" we don't know for 100% certain that having had the virus gives one immunity since its a
brand new virus, but it would be a very rare virus indeed if that doesn't turn out to be the
case."
Wish this were true. Alas. There's no immunity to common cold. And it's caused by corona
viruses, among others. This is a truly nightmarish scenario: a common cold-like lack of
acquired immunity combined with SARS-like disease.
We just don't know yet.
Very rare? The common cold doesn't give long term immunity. It's not rare. It depends on
whether the body decides to hold on to the memory cells that cause immunity. Some diseases
They hang around for decades, some for years, some just a few weeks.
And the cold is caused by coronaviruses: the same family COVID lives in. Also a lot of
people who get this virus don't face heavy symptoms and there's some speculation (just
speculation) that the easier it is for the body to handle a disease the less it cares to
remember it.
So not only is it not rare it's also very much possible for this one.
We don't know. But unfounded statements like "it's very rare." Don't help the
discussion.
Immunity is more than just "you don't get it again". Its also "if you get it again the
symptoms are less" as with colds. Also, colds like all viruses, don't stay the same. They
mutate. But with immunity from a previous form, the symptoms are less with the mutation.
You generally don't get the same cold you had, at least not in any immediate time frame.
There are a myriad different cold viruses out there and they mutate over time, so like the
flu, any immunity is fairly short-lived.
It's about 4 weeks on average last I heard and that's of you get hit with the same stand. The
flu is stronger with a few years but there's a mass of stands and mutations so it's hard to
notice when you ignore one of them.
For example a particularly nasty h1n1 stain hit us in 2009. Most people didn't have an
immunity but many older than 60 did. Seems They had been hit with a similar strand in the
past and thus their bodies still remembered it.
This is also why some vaccines aren't given again after childhood as you basically don't
forget it. Others need to be given again after so many years to be sure of immunity.
Tell me if I got this correct. Herd immunity can be achieved if there is rigorous testing
immediately when a hot spot ocurrs. Plus a vaccine must be unavailable when it breaks out. In
addition there must be sufficient data points that indicates if the virus is contained. None
of which is present now.
And do not forget that in the hotspots now, the health care community is getting close to
the breaking point. None of the models can account for the collapse of the health care
infrastructure.
For those who advocate for reopening the economy, what does their model predict if there
are no workers, no managers, no consumers and the like because they are part of the sick and
dead. We just don't know. So it boils down to determing what level of destruction is
bearable. Is anyone willing to trust our stable genius? God save us.
Before the theory of vaccination was understood or even the idea that microbes cause, or can
cause, infectious disease in human beings, herd immunity had to be acquired by exposure. Had
this not been the case, the human race would not have survived.
Right.
Like the herd immunity that prevented smallpox, polio, measles, mumps, rubella, diptheria,
influenza, etc.
Naturally acquired herd immunity was not enough to prevent recurrent epidemics that we
currently prevent with vaccinations (although anti-vaxxers are trying mightily to rectify
that success).
There is good reason to hope a vaccine will be produced for CORVID-19. However, that is not a
certainty and it might be a year or two before it's safe to use throughout the population.
Since the economy can hardly be left in suspended animation until a vaccine is available,
there will be a period during which the acquistion of herd immunity has to proceed by
default.
This is true but it resulted in a lot of death. This is why disease changed so much of our
history. Entire communities and nations have been changed or fallen due to disease.
That was the world that relied on herd immunity. That's why medicine is deemed so precious
as our entire current way of life is based on no longer relying on pure herd immunity.
Talking as if the old way at all worked just as fine as our modern age is a case of just
enough knowledge to know the terms but not enough to know what it really means.
I know how much we owe to the advance of medical science and I am not suggesting a fatalistic
response to this epidemic is desirable. But until a vaccine is produced for this particular
virus and its mutations, we have no alternative but to accept the risk and carry on.
No one is seriously suggesting that the shutdowns must continue until a vaccine is
produced, so draw the obvious conclusion.
"If you advocate continuing the lockdown until a vaccine is available, you should say
so."
Please explain how you take that away from "...let the experts and their science lead"? We're
in uncharted territory in which tens (possibly hundreds) of thousands of lives are at stake-
the "political decision" to reopen should be based on the best advice of scientists.
The "obvious conclusion" which I referred to, had nothing to do with taking the advice of
scientists. If we want to revive the economy, then sooner or later we have no option than to
resume our social and economic actvities. Until a vaccine is produced, this entails risk; but
human life is never as safe as we might wish to believe.
"If we want to revive the economy, then sooner or later we have no option than to resume our
social and economic activities."
Of course, the rub in that profoundly obvious statement is the meaning of "sooner or later".
I'm suggesting we defer to the best expert advice available. Should we infer that you would
leave those decisions solely up to 'experts' like Brian Kemp (who first became aware of
person-to-person transmission April 1)?
It's the government's job to lead; that's what it was elected to do.
This predicament involves a choice between evils - not a simple choice between the crude
economic materialism of politics and the science of saving lives. It's a choice between lives
and lives. Your comments are made in bad faith.
One of us is arguing in "bad faith", and it's not me. I've written- repeatedly- that we
should be deferring to the best judgement of scientists to navigate reopening- whatever
'fuzziness' you infer from that is occurring somewhere between your eyes and your brain
(which is also the source of the somewhat "fuzzy" and undefined "sooner or later" timeline,
when you feel normal activity can be resumed- when is "sooner or later", exactly, and what
are the criteria that would define "sooner" as opposed to "later"?
The Koreans, the Chinese, the Taiwanese, the Australians and the New Zealanders all provide a
counter example of how to deal with it. The path we are on isn't the only path.
I'm not either. I'm actually standing with Trump, or whoever wrote his plan, on this one. Get
a 2 week downturn in cases then open slowly wait for the spikes open more wait for spikes and
so on. Keep buisiness from doing stupid things like making sick people work. That sort of
thing.
I'd prefer longer as manycountries are waiting a month. But we seem to be able to handle
barely what we have now and you have to balance the panicked with the impatient on this so 2
weeks may have to do. The goal is to make sure the public doesn't go crazy or the situation
doesn't go nutty enough to require a new shutdown.
I'm ok for that. If you are ok with that then I'm not your enemy here.
I'm arguing against the folks who want to keep throwing out mass media lines like "cure
worse than the disease." Or "it's the flu". I'm against the folks who see the flattening
after this lockdown and somehow conclude that the lockdown did nothing. I'm against the folks
like my Georgia governor that somehow thought that opening salons and theaters are to be
opened no matter that we aren't even sure we peaked no matter how few people will even go
there no matter that it kills the companies' governmental benefits for being locked down or
that it forces people into risk as they can't take UI anymore no matter that it ignores
Trump's own plan.
Also I'm just sick of the (find random country praised by media) they aren't mass dying so
OF COURSE the virus means nothing LIBERATE THE PLANET, LET THE PEOPLE DIE LIKE NATURE
INTENDED.
This virus is here to stay, and we must learn to live with it. In the coming months, until a
vaccine is produced, there will be many hard choices between economic survival and risking
lives.
Only a callous fool would argue that we should let the infection rip and "let the people
die as nature intended."
That's a claim I won't even put on Trump. I'm suspecting he's just trying to find the most
popular position.
Governor Kemp though. I'm suspecting now. We're in the upper end as far as infections, the
worst in testing and most of the flatten we might be in is due to counties and cities
deciding for themselves to lock (my own started once the first case showed up. We're still
pretty empty on infections here): a feature Kemp is now taking away as he unilaterally opens
the state.
That I'm now seriously defending a Trump policy over my governor means something is going
very very wrong.
Trump's only concern throughout this debacle (that can virtually all be laid at the feet of
his administration, given it's inactivity- with the exception of the travel 'sieve'- from
January to March), as well as his entire presidency and life, is and has been Trump. It's not
the most popular decision he's trying to find, he just wants to goose the stock market and
economy enough to eke out another (unpopular) electoral college win- he doesn't give a damn
about the lives of the people who may go back to work, or the loss of lives of people who may
die unnecessarily because of imbeciles like Kemp forcing people back to work prematurely.
And while the Trumps and Kemps are at least honest enough to wear their sociopathy on their
sleeves, you can find it by scratching just about any Republican.
By the way, as a Georgian you might find this article interesting:
https://www.theatlantic.com...
I couldn't read the article fully. It's like watching a close up of a massacare economically.
Even ignoring the health costs it's a boneheaded move. And since Kemp has massive powers as a
governor in an emergency he gets full reign to keep being a bonehead.
I understand why he's doing it. His economy is shattered when he is desperately in need to
fund the promises that got him elected (not many Republicans would offer a 5k raise to all
teachers but there you go). He's in a state constantly whispering of turning blue and he only
won by slivers. And if he can't lock the state government or both Senate seats (the other
retired due to health issues) when the whispers also say democrats are taking the Senate he's
doomed. So he's pulling a Hail Mary.
I get it. So saying he's a callous man ready to kill for a buck is toxic nonsense.
But it's boneheaded.
I have to hopeI'm wrong and Kemp scores and probably saves the state for the Republicans
one more election. Because I have to live in the horrible mess he'd have created if I'm
right.
Person has Heart attack taken to ER does and is called death by C-Virus
Immune system is CRITICAL -that is why older folks suffer more weakened immune functions.
Fear weakens Immune function !!! Play Hide
I work in an ER- despite what Alex Jones may have told you, when people die of a heart
attack, we use the evidence (EKG changes, abnormal labs) to attribute their death to a heart
attack.
On the other hand, it's highly likely that COVID19 deaths have been undercounted:
https://www.businessinsider...
I am deeply dubious that James Pinkerton truly believes in hard, empirical data over modeled
probabilities. His disingenuous logic comes through in his celebration of Ionnadis who, in
recent weeks, is best known for releasing a sloppy study and publishing an even sloppier WSJ
op-ed. He has been criticized by statisticians around the world. Before he had sufficient
empirical data, he went repeatedly on Fox News to shape conservative minds, advocating that
the covid death rate was low and the costs of social distancing too high. There are
statistical rules that define when data is sufficient and significant, increasing confidence
in a projection. Ionnadis failed to do this in a big way, but is celebrated by Pinkerton as
the White Knight of hard data.
Of course, the models vary widely. IT is new, there is new data coming every minute. So some
models become obsolete very quick, and new models have to be made incorporating the new data.
But as a rule, it is better to go with the more pessimistic models. Because as it happens,
there is no way that an optimist can be pleasantly surprised.
In pandemic blame distribution Fauci and the CDC top should get mayor shares.
In financial crash blame distribution the New York FED with its top 5 controller /
bail-out receiver banks have big parts. It still holds the world's other Central Banks
hostage through its reserves and trade in U$ dollars only meme.
In the intelligence area it is not very different: also that branch of the US Deep State
failed.
The jaw-dropping stupidity of the Trump administration regarding the COVID-19 pandemic is
truly mind numbing. There is an old dictum that states that there is no such thing as
'military intelligence.' To that I add there is no such thing as 'intelligence' in Washington
DC either, or the Trump White House for that matter. If you try to look for it, you will only
find hacks, flacks, quacks and certifiable jerks. You would do better to waste your time and
money looking for the Loch Ness Monster, Big Foot, or the Tooth Fairy. The prospect that
Trump could get anther four years as president is depressing indeed. All that would be left
is divine intervention, and I don't think that is any more likely than finding the
aforementioned mythical creatures.
In a Thursday address on "protecting America's seniors," President Donald Trump discussed
new initiatives pertaining to COVID-19 and its impact on nursing homes and their residents.
Prior to delivering his remarks on nursing homes, the president noted that he would sign a
proclamation making May "Older Americans Month." ...Among the new initiatives were: Additional
shipments of PPE to all Medicaid/Medicare nursing homes in the U.S; $81 million from the CARES
act to increase inspections of nursing homes during the pandemic; Requiring nursing homes to
inform residents and family members about new COVID-19 cases...
Compare with
Coronavirus patients admitted to Queens nursing home - with body bags | 23 April 2020 | The
first coronavirus patients admitted to a Queens nursing home under a controversial
state mandate arrived along with some grim accessories - a supply of body bags, The Post
has learned. An executive at the facility - which was previously free of the deadly disease -
said the bags were in the shipment of personal protective equipment received the same day the
home was forced to begin treating two people discharged from hospitals with COVID-19. "My
colleague noticed that one of the boxes was extremely heavy. Curious as to what could possibly
be making that particular box so much heavier than the rest, he opened it," the exec told The
Post Thursday. "The first two coronavirus patients were accompanied by five body bags." Within
days, three of the bags were filled with the first of 30 residents who would die there after
Gov. Andrew Cuomo's Health Department handed down its March 25 directive that bars nursing
homes from refusing to admit "medically stable" coronavirus patients , the exec said. Like
clockwork, the nursing home has received five body bags a week - every week - from city
officials.
Governor's
death sentences: Cuomo forced high-risk nursing homes to admit COVID-19 patients, spreading
killer virus amongst the most vulnerable -- Some patients were transferred with body bags
accompanying them . | 26 April 2020 | The New York State Department of Health
made a deadly decision on March 25 when it forced nursing homes to take in people who held
a positive diagnosis for coronavirus in certain cases. It was determined by the state of New
York that these coronavirus patients were "medically stable," but in actuality, they were far
from stable. They still carried the disease that could be easily passed to others in these
crowded facilities. The New York Post
reported that in one particularly morbid case, coronavirus patients were admitted to a
nursing home in Queens with body bags accompanying them. ... Thirty residents would die from
coronavirus-related in just days after the first COVID+ patients were admitted at one nursing
home alone . "Cuomo has blood on his hands. He really does. There's no way to sugarcoat this,"
the health care executive said. "Why in the world would you be sending coronavirus patients to
a nursing home, where the most vulnerable population to this disease resides?" they added. [
Cuomo wanted as many elderly people in his state to die as possible - to save New York money.
Imagine if this was Trump's policy, he'd have already been executed - but Cuomo gets a pass.]
Nurses said working conditions have caused them to become infected with the coronavirus and
to be quarantined away from work and their families. Union officials want administration to
better protect them.
A union representing nurses at Ohio State University's Wexner Medical Center filed a formal
complaint this week that alleges poor working conditions inside the hospital have caused 85
nurses to be infected with COVID-19 and many more exposed.
Rick Lucas, head of the Ohio State University Nurses Organization, filed the complaint
Tuesday with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration
"Many have suffered serious illnesses and lost work time and may have also exposed or
infected their families," Lucas wrote in the complaint.
In the filing, Lucas details 14 instances in which he says nurses were put in danger by
medical emergencies handled without proper protection, and by decisions made by the
administration. "Health care professionals are in imminent danger of infection and serious
illness associated with SARS CoV-2 across the entire Medical Center," he wrote.
Dr. Andrew Thomas, the chief clinical officer for the medical center, said administrators
had not received any complaints for OSHA. Thomas said the administration is doing all it can to
support hospital staff.
"Nothing means more to us than the health and safety of our colleagues, our patients and
their families," he said in an email.
Thomas said the hospital has taken numerous safety steps that follow recommendations from
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"We continue to work tirelessly to purchase PPE and maximize usage of those we have," he
said.
Among the allegations in the complaint:
Failure to provide frontline health-care workers who are taking care of a suspected or
positive COVID-19 patient a sufficient supply of N95 masks to minimize their risk of
exposure.
Those dealing with infected prisoners were exposed to patients with COVID-19 because they
were not provided sufficient eye protection and masks. Nurses were forced to bring in their
own goggles to try and provide some eye protection. The union said around 10 employees
contracted COVID-19 and around two dozen employees were exposed and required to quarantine.
Correction officers also suffered exposure and subsequent illness.
There were outbreaks in Dodd Rehabilitation Hospital and Ross Heart Hospital, resulting
in the need to quarantine staff. In another outbreak in the baby unit, 27 staff members were
exposed. The union alleges they were not provided proper masks.
The hospital has denied N95 respirators, foreign equivalents, or stronger respirators to
workers providing care or cleaning patient rooms within 6 feet of patients with suspected or
confirmed COVID-19.
Management has refused to provide initial fit testing for workers using respirators.
Management has claimed they do not have to provide fit testing for workers using new
respirators such as when they change from one type of N95 mask to a different type.
On or before April 1, the employer physically removed all N95 masks from James
Comprehensive Cancer Hospital outpatient clinics despite patients still being seen in those
clinics.
held
nearly 140 rallies in 13 states calling for the US government to provide more masks and
other protective equipment, warehouse workers and grocery employees at Amazon, Whole Foods and
Shipt walked
off the job in New York's Staten Island, California's Bay Area and Los Angeles, Ohio and
Kentucky. Such essential workers have stated that their employers have been slow to establish
safety precautions and provide them with protective gear to safeguard them against the
coronavirus.
"It [the labor movement] has returned, and as you mentioned, it does commemorate a time in US
labor history. But ironically, it's been all but washed away from our current culture, and
that's what we're trying to do at US Labor Against the War, is to really bring back this
holiday, because this is our day This is the real Labor Day, and this pandemic has really
made clear how absolutely essential workers are to our economy," Zahra told Loud & Clear host Brian Becker
on Friday.
Similar protests calling for additional safety measures and protective equipment for workers
took place across the
world on Friday in countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and Austria.
May 1 is known as May Day or International Workers' Day and was originally suggested in 1889
by the Marxist International Socialist Congress and pushed by the American Federation of Labor,
which was then demonstrating for an eight-hour work day. May 1 eventually became a national
holiday to celebrate workers and the working classes in most countries around the world, but
not in the United States.
In socialist countries such as China, Vietnam, the former Union of Soviet Socialist
Republics, and Cuba, May Day is a national holiday during which the country showcased its
industrial accomplishments, including military hardware.
"Our economy is global. We are all globally connected, and workers have the same issues here
in the US that they do in Iran and Venezuela and Cuba and China, Sweden, Syria, all around the
world. We just want to live dignified lives, but the same handful of super rich billionaires
are the ones really getting in the way of that. And they don't want us to understand our
solidarity across countries, across borders, race, gender lines, because then we will
understand that we're the ones that have all the power as workers," Zahra explained.
A new
report by the Institute for Policy Studies think tank has found that between March 18 and
April 10, the collective wealth of American billionaires increased by $282 billion, or 9.5%.
The country's richest have continued to become richer while tens of millions of Americans lose
their jobs. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, a $2 trillion bill
signed into law by US President Donald Trump on March 27,
provides tax cuts to wealthy Americans while only providing a $1,200 stimulus check to the
average American.
"They're still giving bailouts to these major corporations, and when you're looking at what's
happening from afar, we're getting crumbs thrown at us As the labor movement, we need our own
party. We cannot depend on the Republicans or the Democrats. Both parties have been bought
and sold for the rich," Zahra added.
Despite the resurgence in the labor movement, more work needs to be done regarding trade
unions, Zahra pointed out.
"I do think this COVID crisis, this global pandemic, has really sent a shock through our
entire system, throughout our unions, and has really exposed the inability for our government
to protect its own workers. There are so many workers who are now struggling, both union and
nonunion," Zahra added.
"There's definitely a lot of work to be done, a lot of growth to ensure our unions are
democratic, are representative of our membership and that we're bringing the unorganized sector
into the fold we have a lot of workers who are still unorganized across the country. In the
private sector we only have about 10% of workers unionized. In the public sector, it's around
30%," Zahra explained.
The views and opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect those of
Sputnik.
While a study of the experimental drug remdesivir as a treatment for Covid-19 published
positive preliminary results on Wednesday, such treatment is likely to remain just as far out of
reach as existing coronavirus care for many patients. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National
Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, nevertheless cheered the results, declaring the
trial had " proven " that " a drug can block this virus ."
Remdesivir, made exclusively by Gilead, received FDA approval for emergency use on Friday
after appearing to show clinical benefit in a single trial conducted by the National Institute
for Allergy and Infections Disease (NIAID). Gilead has pledged to donate 1.5 million doses of
the drug, and the stockpile currently on hand will be distributed to hospitals starting on
Monday, according to Vice President Mike Pence.
FDA commissioner Steve Gottlieb called the
drug an " important clinical advance. " Dr. Deborah Birx, head of the White House's
coronavirus task force, gushed that it was " the first positive step forward " in
treating Covid-19.
Emergency drug approval differs from full FDA approval in that it is only valid while the
emergency declaration - in this case, the coronavirus pandemic - remains in effect. Remdesivir
is not the first drug to receive such approval for treating Covid-19 - the malaria drugs
chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine were approved on an emergency basis in late March. While
their use remains controversial due to the vocal support of President Donald Trump, doctors in
other countries (and even in the US) have anecdotally reported success in treating patients
with the malaria pills in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin, though clinical trials
have produced mixed results.
While the results of the NIAID's remdesivir trial reported on Wednesday were reportedly
positive, indicating a 31 percent faster recovery time, the full data has not been publicly
released, let alone peer-reviewed. Dr. Anthony Fauci, who heads the NIAID, nevertheless cheered
the drug as having a " clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to
recovery ." He insisted the drug " can block this virus " and suggested that no
further studies with placebos were needed, declaring that scientists had an " ethical
obligation " to let those receiving the sugar pills have access to the active drug - no
further comparison needed.
Could Anthony Fauci explain why the investigators of the NIAID remdesivir trial did change
the primary outcome during the course of the project (16th April)? Removing "death" from
primary outcome is a surprising decision. https://t.co/ZnK9LiUzaX pic.twitter.com/Rq47FHqGyO
Skeptics have pointed to the NIAID's decision to change its trial's " endpoint " from
mortality to duration of illness as proof remdesivir is not the miracle pill it is being
portrayed as. Tellingly, the drug had no clinically significant effect on mortality for
patients enrolled in the trial. Others have questioned whether a drug initially developed as a
(failed) treatment for Ebola would have any effect on a totally different virus. Fauci's own
comparison of the NIAID trial to the first trial of AZT for HIV treatment also raised a few
eyebrows, as early high-dose AZT treatment was extremely deadly.
Another remdesivir trial Gilead has touted as positive in fact showed no difference in
clinical improvement between five-day and 10-day treatment groups on the 14th day of
observation. While the company suggested this meant more patients could be treated with the
drug, the lack of a control group rendered the results all but meaningless. Nevertheless,
Gilead flooded the media with positive releases about its two trials, drowning out concern
about a Chinese trial whose results had already been published in the Lancet, showing no
clinical benefit for the drug.
"... Among the reported influenza deaths in the US, how many cases were infected with COVID-19? Did the US government cover up the spread of coronavirus with the flu? When will the US government make public the samples of the US influenza virus and its genetic sequence, or allow experts from the WHO or the United Nations to sample and analyze? ..."
1. Regarding the restarted avian influenza virus modification experiment last year, why
does the US release no more updates?
The Science reported in February 2019 that US authorities had quietly approved the avian
influenza virus modification experiment. The research, aiming to transform the H5N1 virus to
be more capable of infecting mammals, was controversial and considered extremely dangerous.
Some experts believe that the modification may increase the risk of human-to-human
transmission of the virus. The question is why the US government decided to unfreeze the
experiment 4 years after it was halted, and why there are no more updates regarding the
experiment.
2. The United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID)
was previously closed. What is the truth behind ?
The Global Biodefence reported in April that the USAMRIID, US Army's primary institution
and facility for biological research headquartered in Fort Detrick, Maryland, has resumed
full operation. The institution was once ordered to halt the study of biological select
agents and toxins (BSATs) last July. In March, there was a petition on the White House
website demanding the clarification of the shutdown of USAMRIID. Given that these issues have
become a primary public concern, what is the US government's response?
3. The US Department of Health and Human Services ran a scenario last year that was
similar to the COVID-19 outbreak. Is this just a coincidence?
In March, the New York Times quoted a draft report obtained from the US government saying
that from January to August 2019, the US Department of Health and Human Services ran a
scenario called "Crimson Contagion" that simulated the fictional outbreak involving a group
of tourists visiting China. They then became infected and flew to various countries,
including the US. Last October, a high-level pandemic exercise named Event 201 was hosted by
a couple of US organizations. The drill simulated a scenario that a fictional virus called
CAPS, which causes more severe symptoms than SARS and transmits via the respiratory route
like the common flu, had caused a pandemic. Like COVID-19, there is no vaccine for CAPS.
Given the fact that the simulated virus is so much like COVID-19, is this just a
coincidence? Another question is, why did it not take enough preventive measures at the early
stages of the coronavirus outbreak since the US has predicted a similar pandemic?
4. US intelligence officials warned of coronavirus crisis as early as last November. Why
the warning was ignored?
In April, according to the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), it was said that, as
early as late November 2019, US intelligence officials had warned the Defense Intelligence
Agency, the Pentagon, and the White House that an infectious disease was sweeping through
Wuhan, China.
Last November, the US National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) issued a report
detailing the coronavirus pandemic, which was later identified as "COVID-19". Some analysts
believed that the outbreak in Wuhan might have evolved into a catastrophic event. According
to the Washington Post, in more than two months from January to February, Trump had received
intensive warnings from the US intelligence agencies about the coronavirus. Why did the US
government not declare a "National Emergency" until March 13?
5. Among the reported influenza deaths in the US, can the US clarify how many cases are
actually infected with COVID-19?
Japanese Asahi Television reported on February 21 that some of the 14,000 people
reportedly killed by influenza in the US might have died from coronavirus, which became a hot
topic soon after.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a report at the end of
February, showing that there have been at least 32 million flu illnesses in the US that
winter.
On March 11, at the House of Representatives, Robert Redfield, the director of the US CDC,
admitted that some in the US who were previously thought to have been killed from the flu may
have been infected with coronavirus.
Among the reported influenza deaths in the US, how many cases were infected with
COVID-19? Did the US government cover up the spread of coronavirus with the flu? When will
the US government make public the samples of the US influenza virus and its genetic sequence,
or allow experts from the WHO or the United Nations to sample and analyze?
6. When did the novel coronavirus first appear in the US? Did community transmission of
the coronavirus start sooner than it was reported?
A report released in late April by local health authorities suggests that a 57-year-old
woman from Santa Clara County of California died from COVID-19 on February 6, some 20 days
earlier than the date the US announced its first death caused by the virus.
The Los Angeles Times quoted Santa Clara County health officer Sara Cody in a piece
saying, "we presume that each of them represents community transmission and that there was
some significant level of virus circulating in our community in early February."
County Executive Officer Jeffrey V. Smith said this is evidence that the coronavirus was
circulating in California as early as January or even earlier.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has ordered all counties in the state to review autopsies of
suspected coronavirus deaths dating back to December.
When did the novel coronavirus first appear in the US? Did community transmission of the
coronavirus start sooner than it was reported?
7. How did the US get the virus strains so soon to start the first human testing of a
vaccine against COVID-19?
The Wall Street Journal on March 16 reported that the first human testing of Moderna
Inc.'s experimental vaccine against the COVID-19 had already begun. Experts immediately
raised questions about the speed of the vaccine development, saying that it would not be
possible unless the US had obtained the virus strains from very early on. So how did the US
start the first human testing of the vaccine so soon? When and how did they get the virus
strains?
8. Why did the US government keep downplaying the pandemic while its officials privately
dumped stocks?
According to the Washington Post, US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr
and his wife sold up to 1.7 million in 33 different stocks just one week before the market
plunged. Why did these officials at the Committee act so quickly while the government was
continually understating the pandemic?
Why is the vital information kept confidential to the public while the government
officials were taking advantage to practice insider-trading?
9. Why are US experts not allowed to discuss COVID-19 in public?
The New York Times reported that the White House began tightening controls for all
coronavirus messaging from health officials on February 27 after Vice President Mike Pence
led the nation's epidemic prevention and control efforts.
Several scientists and government health officials, including the nation's leading
infectious disease expert Anthony S. Fauci, have been asked to make statements or make public
appearances about the COVID-19 only after consultation with the US vice president's
office.
Why does the United States, which claims free speech, not allow experts and scholars to
discuss the novel coronavirus in public? Does the US want to hide something or fear of
something?
10. What research is being done in the US overseas biological laboratories? Why does the
US keep tight-lipped about it?
Natalia Poklonskaya, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Foreign Affairs, has
proposed verifying the legitimacy of US biological laboratories around the world, according
to Sputnik news agency.
Not long ago, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed concern about the
establishment of a biological laboratory in countries from the former Soviet Union.
Grigory Trofimchuk, a Russian expert in the field of internal affairs, foreign affairs,
and national defense, said the work of these biological laboratories was never disclosed to
the outside world, and that they had caused several problems, with widespread outbreaks of
dangerous infectious diseases such as measles at the laboratory site.
What research is being done in these biological laboratories? Why does the US keep
tight-lipped about the function, use, the safety of these biological laboratories?
The virus is a problem and if you do a general lock down (1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1
year..) you will create 100 further problems. Now you have 101 problems!
The data is in that the virus, in the general community (not counting hospitals), only
kills people over 70 years, or with medical issues.
So quarantine the over 70's, give them free delivered food, a laptop with Zoom so they can
still communicate, and let the rest of the world live their lives. It is insane that two 20
year olds cannot go on a date without being fined, or someone on a rural beach has a chopper
land beside them and they are fined. This is not a medical response, this is a psych-ops,
that is manipulation of the human psyche on a grand scale. Some would say on a Satanic
scale!
Here is what happens when money collapses, when the economy collapses, and in the turmoil
some are going to be richer than Midas.
In the past, an inflationary collapse has usually affected currencies in isolation; but
the modern tendency for governments to coordinate their inflationary stimulations raises a
new factor, of strains between currencies collapsing at the same time but at different
rates.
The most notable experience of it in modern times was in several European countries
following the First World war. The inflations were individual to the nations, but the cause
was the same, and Austria's inflationary collapse ran ahead of Germany's. A passage from a
man who witnessed it, the Austrian writer Stefan Zweig, in his autobiographical The World of
Yesterday vividly describes the consequences:
Every hotel in Vienna was filled with these vultures [foreign tourists]; they bought
everything from toothbrushes to landed estates, they mopped up private collections and
antique shop stocks before their owners, in their distress, woke to how they were being
plundered. Humble hotel clerks from Switzerland, stenographers from Holland would put up in
the deluxe suites of the Ringstrasse hotels. Incredible as it may seem, I can vouch for it as
an eyewitness that Salzburg's first-rate Hotel de l'Europe was occupied for a period by
English unemployed, who, because of Britain's generous dole were able to live more cheaply at
that distinguished hostelry than in their slums at home. Whatever was not nailed down
disappeared. The tidings of cheap living and cheap goods in Austria spread far and wide;
greedy visitors came from Sweden from France; more Italian French Turkish and Romanian was
spoken than German in Vienna's business district.[ii]
Among the Austrians impoverished in their own communities, the law-abiding starved and
those prepared to break food rationing laws thrived. Savers, who had patriotically bought
government bonds, lost everything. Germans from across the border, whose currency was yet to
enter its final collapse, could swill six litres of Austrian beer for one of German, adding
to the foreign revelry in Austria's misery.
In our contemporary fiat collapse, differences in its rate will create similar openings
for an unsettling life arbitrage. In business dealings, any vestiges of decency and
compassion are early victims as those with an early understanding of the opportunities
provided by a monetary collapse profit from the innocence of the ignorant. But Germany was to
suffer the inflationary fate of Austria the following year. Again, from Zweig:
A pair of shoe laces cost more than a shoe had once cost, no, more than a fashionable
store with two thousand pairs of shoes had cost before; to repair a broken window more than
the whole house had formerly cost, a book more than the printers shop with a hundred presses.
For $100 one could buy rows of six-storey houses on Kurfürstendamm and factories were to
be had for the old equivalent of a wheelbarrow
Towering over all of them was the gigantic figure of the super-profiteer Stinnes expanding
his credit and in thus exploiting the mark he bought whatever was for sale, coal mines and
ships, factories and stocks, castles and country estates, actually for nothing because every
payment, every promise became equal to naught. Soon a quarter of Germany was in his hands
and, perversely, the masses who in Germany always became intoxicated at a success that they
can see with their eyes, cheered him as a genius.
The story of Hugo Stinnes brings us back to our current situation, how markets will evolve
and who will profit.
Some 14 percent of US adults would forgo medical care for Covid-19 symptoms because they
couldn't pay for it, a new poll has found – yet oblivious health authorities act as if
the epidemic will be solved by drugs alone. One in seven American adults would avoid seeking
healthcare if they or a family member experienced symptoms of Covid-19, out of concern they
would be unable to afford treatment, according to a
Gallup poll published on Tuesday. Even if they specifically believed themselves to be infected
with the coronavirus, nine percent would forgo care for financial reasons, the poll found.
Their fears are well-founded – the average cost of coronavirus treatment in an intensive
care unit runs over $30,000,
according to a study released earlier this month by insurance industry group America's
Health Insurance Plans. Even for those who avoid the ICU, American healthcare is the most
expensive in the world, and stories of coronavirus patients being whacked with gargantuan
medical bills are a dime a dozen two months into the pandemic.
Making matters worse is the unemployment crisis, as about 55 percent of Americans receive
healthcare through their jobs. Upwards of 30 million have filed for unemployment in the last
five weeks, adding an unprecedented number of families to the ranks of the uninsured –
which were already estimated in December to include 27.5 million people, more than the
population of Australia. Even those lucky enough to have kept their jobs and insurance may face
steep co-pays or other surprise costs.
After a handful of highly-publicized cases in which Americans died of the virus after being
turned away by hospitals for lack of money, President Donald Trump ordered hospitals to pay for
the cost of Covid-19 treatment, and several large insurers promised at the beginning of the
month to waive all co-pays for coronavirus testing for 60 days. However, those coverage pledges
do not include other costs associated with hospitalization, like ambulance transportation;
outpatient treatment; or treatment for non-Covid-19 patients. Individuals seeking treatment
have been tested and received the good news that they don't have the virus – only to be
hit shortly thereafter with the bad news that they're on the hook for thousands of dollars in
costs. Low-income respondents were much more likely to report they would not seek care for
financial reasons. Perhaps more troublingly, respondents with annual income under $40,000 were
almost four times as likely as those with incomes over $100,000 to report that they or a family
member had been turned away from a hospital for reasons related to overcrowding or high patient
volume, the Gallup poll found.
In pandemic blame distribution Fauci and the CDC top should get mayor shares.
In financial crash blame distribution the New York FED with its top 5 controller /
bail-out receiver banks have big parts. It still holds the world's other Central Banks
hostage through its reserves and trade in U$ dollars only meme.
In the intelligence area it is not very different: also that branch of the US Deep State
failed.
From the article: Two potent antihistamines, clemastine and cloperastine , also displayed antiviral activity...
...Interestingly, a seventh compound – an ingredient commonly found in cough suppressants, called dextromethorphan
– does the opposite: Its presence helps the virus.
In theory, any intersection on the map between viral and human proteins is a place where drugs could fight the coronavirus .
But instead of trying to develop new drugs to work on these points of interaction, we turned to
the more than 2,000 unique drugs already approved by the FDA for human use. We believed that
somewhere on this long list would be a few drugs or compounds that interact with the very same
human proteins as the coronavirus.
Every good linked article - thanks. Important takeaway from very early research finings: OTC
cough suppressant
..... "Interestingly, a seventh compound – an ingredient commonly found in cough
suppressants, called dextromethorphan – does the opposite: Its presence helps the
virus. When our partners tested infected cells with this compound, the virus was able to
replicate more easily, and more cells died.
This is potentially a very important finding, but, and I cannot stress this enough, more
tests are needed to determine if cough syrup with this ingredient should be avoided by
someone who has COVID-19........"
Watch this RT interview with Robert Kennedy to see how corrupt the CDC is. We cannot trust
this corrupt organization with our health. The CDC has a large financial interest in pushing
untested vaccines on the public.
WHO is even more under the control of Big Pharma. The organization is corrupt beyond the
meaning of the word. "The WHO is a sock puppet for the pharmaceutical industry." -- Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Treatment for the
Coronavirus is evolving. The disease is complicated and is not acting like influenza. They are
finding that it also causes brain infections, heart infections, and neurological problems.
Ventilators are generally not working. So now they are avoiding ventilators for the most part.
Sixty to eighty percent of the people put on ventilators either die or end up with additional
serious complications.
Instead doctors are now turning people on their stomachs and improving their oxygenation.
Dr. Richard Levitan, an airway specialist who has practiced emergency medicine for over 30
years addresses these issues.
Now rogue academics, rogue journalists, rogue former officials – anyone, in fact
– can go online and discover a myriad of things that until recently no one outside a
small establishment circle was ever supposed to understand. If you know where to look, you can
even find some of this stuff on Wikipedia (see, for example, Operation Timber Sycamore ).
The effect of this information overload has been to disorientate the great majority of us
who lack the time, the knowledge and the analytical skills to sift through it all and make
sense of the world around us. It is hard to discriminate when there is so much information
– good and bad alike – to digest.
Nonetheless, we have got a sense from these online debates, reinforced by events in the
non-virtual world, that our politicians do not always tell the truth, that money – rather
than the public interest – sometimes wins out in decision-making processes, and that our
elites may be little better equipped than us – aside from their expensive educations
– to run our societies.
Two decades of lies
There has been a handful of staging posts over the past two decades to our current era of
the Great Disillusionment. They include:
lack of transparency in the US government's
investigation into the events surrounding 9/11 (obscured by a parallel online controversy
about what took place that day); the
documented lies told about the reasons for launching a disastrous and illegal war of
aggression against Iraq in 2003 that unleashed regional chaos, waves of destabilising
migration into Europe and new, exceptionally brutal forms of political Islam; the
astronomical bailouts after the 2008 crash of bankers whose criminal activities nearly
bankrupted the global economy (but who were never held to account) and instituted more
than a decade of austerity measures that had to be paid for by the public; the refusal by
western governments and global institutions to take any
leadership on tackling climate change , as not only the science but the weather itself
has made the urgency of that emergency clear, because it would mean taking on their corporate
sponsors; and now the criminal failures of our governments to
prepare for, and respond properly to, the Covid-19 pandemic, despite many years of warnings.
Anyone who still takes what our governments say at face value well, I have several bridges
to sell you.
Experts failed us
But it is not just governments to blame. The failings of experts, administrators and the
professional class have been all too visible to the public as well. Those officials who have
enjoyed easy access to prominent platforms in the state-corporate media have obediently
repeated what state and corporate interests wanted us to hear, often only for that information
to be exposed later as incomplete, misleading or downright fabricated.
In the run-up to the 2003 attack on Iraq, too many political scientists, journalists and
weapons experts kept their heads down, keen to preserve their careers and status, rather than
speak up in support of those rare experts like Scott Ritter and
the late David Kelly who
dared to sound the alarm that we were not being told the whole truth.
In 2008, only a handful of economists was prepared to break with corporate orthodoxy and
question whether throwing money at bankers exposed as financial criminals was wise, or to
demand that these bankers be prosecuted. The economists did not argue the case that there must
be a price for the banks to pay, such as a public stake in the banks that were bailed out, in
return for forcing taxpayers to massively invest in these discredited businesses. And the
economists did not propose overhauling our financial systems to make sure there was no
repetition of the economic crash. Instead, they kept their heads down as well, in the hope that
their large salaries continued and that they would not lose their esteemed positions in
think-tanks and universities.
... ... ...
And recently we have learnt, for example, that a series of Conservative governments in the
UK recklessly ran down the
supplies of hospital protective gear , even though they had more than a decade of warnings
of a coming pandemic. The question is why did no scientific advisers or health officials blow
the whistle earlier. Now it is too late to save the lives of many thousands, including dozens
of medical staff, who have fallen victim so far to the virus in the UK.
Lesser of two evils
Worse still, in the Anglosphere of the US and the UK, we have ended up with political
systems that offer a choice between one party that supports a brutal, unrestrained version of
neoliberalism and another party that supports a marginally less brutal, slightly mitigated
version of neoliberalism. (And we have recently discovered in the UK that, after the grassroots
membership of one of those twinned parties managed to choose a leader in Jeremy Corbyn who
rejected this orthodoxy, his own party machine conspired
to throw the election rather than let him near power.) As we are warned at each election, in
case we decide that elections are in fact futile, we enjoy a choice – between the lesser
of two evils.
Those who ignore or instinctively defend these glaring failings of the modern corporate
system are really in no position to sit smugly in judgment on those who wish to question the
safety of 5G, or vaccines, or the truth of 9/11, or the reality of a climate catastrophe, or
even of the presence of lizard overlords.
Because through their reflexive dismissal of doubt, of all critical thinking on anything
that has not been pre-approved by our governments and by the state-corporate media, they have
helped to disfigure the only yardsticks we have for measuring truth or falsehood. They have
forced on us a terrible choice: to blindly follow those who have repeatedly demonstrated they
are not worthy of being followed, or to trust nothing at all, to doubt everything. Neither
position is one a healthy, balanced individual would want to adopt. But that is where we are
today.
Big Brother regimes
It is therefore hardly surprising that those who have been so discredited by the current
explosion of information – the politicians, the corporations and the professional class
– are wondering how to fix things in the way most likely to maintain their power and
authority.
They face two, possibly complementary options.
ORDER IT NOW
One is to allow the information overload to continue, or even escalate. There is an argument
to be made that the more possible truths we are presented with, the more powerless
we feel and the more willing we are to defer to those most vocal in claiming authority.
Confused and hopeless, we will look to father figures, to the strongmen of old, to those who
have cultivated an aura of decisiveness and fearlessness, to those who look like down-to-earth
mavericks and rebels.
This approach will throw up more Donald Trumps, Boris Johnsons and Jair Bolsonaros. And
these men, while charming us with their supposed lack of orthodoxy, will still, of course, be
exceptionally accommodating to the most powerful corporate interests – the military-industrial complex
– that really run the show.
The other option, which has already been road-tested under the rubric of "fake news", will
be to treat us, the public, like irresponsible children, who need a firm, guiding hand. The
technocrats and professionals will try to re-establish their authority as though the last two
decades never occurred, as though we never saw through their hypocrisy and lies.
They will cite "conspiracy theories" – even the true ones – as proof that it is
time to
impose new curbs on internet freedoms, on the right to speak and to think. They will argue
that the social media experiment has run its course and proved itself a menace – because
we, the public, are a menace. They are already flying trial balloons for this new Big Brother
world, under cover of tackling the health threats posed by the Covid-19 epidemic.
Surveillance a price worth paying to beat coronavirus, says Blair thinktank https://t.co/AAb1nnv4pG
We should not be surprised that the "thought-leaders" for shutting down the cacophony of the
internet are those whose failures have been most exposed by our new freedoms to explore the
dark recesses of the recent past. They have included Tony Blair, the British prime minister who
lied western publics into the disastrous and illegal war on Iraq in 2003, and Jack Goldsmith,
rewarded as a Harvard law professor for his role – since whitewashed – in helping
the Bush administration legalise torture and step up warrantless surveillance programmes.
Fmr. Bush admin lawyer/current Harvard Law prof Jack Goldsmith goes full-Thomas Friedman,
credits China's enlightened authoritarian approach to information as "largely right" and
laments the US' provincial fealty to the First Amendment as "largely wrong." https://t.co/1WyQtgE8bK
pic.twitter.com/1M03ybxh0I
The only alternative to a future in which we are ruled by Big Brother technocrats like Tony
Blair, or by chummy authoritarians who brook no dissent, or a mix of the two, will require a
complete overhaul of our societies' approach to information. We will need fewer curbs on free
speech, not more.
The real test of our societies – and the only hope of surviving the coming
emergencies, economic and environmental – will be finding a way to hold our leaders truly
to account. Not based on whether they are secretly lizards, but on what they are doing to save
our planet from our all-too-human, self-destructive instinct for acquisition and our craving
for guarantees of security in an uncertain world.
That, in turn, will require a transformation of our relationship to information and debate.
We will need a new model of independent, pluralistic, responsive, questioning media that is
accountable to the public, not to billionaires and corporations. Precisely the kind of media we
do not have now. We will need media we can trust to represent the full range of credible,
intelligent, informed debate, not the narrow Overton window through which we get a highly
partisan, distorted view of the world that serves the 1 per cent – an elite so richly
rewarded by the current system that they are prepared to ignore the fact that they and we are
hurtling towards the abyss.
With that kind of media in place – one that truly holds politicians to account and
celebrates scientists for their contributions to collective knowledge, not their usefulness to
corporate enrichment – we would not need to worry about the safety of our communications
systems or medicines, we would not need to doubt the truth of events in the news or wonder
whether we have lizards for rulers, because in that kind of world no one would rule over us.
They would serve the public for the common good.
Sounds like a fantastical, improbable system of government? It has a name: democracy. Maybe
it is time for us finally to give it a go.
Jonathan Cook won the Martha Gellhorn Special Prize for Journalism. His books include
"Israel and the Clash of Civilisations: Iraq, Iran and the Plan to Remake the Middle East"
(Pluto Press) and "Disappearing Palestine: Israel's Experiments in Human Despair" (Zed Books).
His website is www.jonathan-cook.net .
"The real threat isn't the virus that has killed 59,000 Americans. It is a nonexistent
vaccine for it."
There are many valid comments in that post, but...call me crazy...I will not be taking any
vaccine that's been rushed in a few months. Vaccines take quite a while to develop and the
consequences of taking a poorly researched one are quite severe. However, I doubt it will
come to that, as even the most optimistic vaccine estimate seems to be 18 to 24 months. By
which time herd immunity will have happened whether anyone wants it to or not.
Clearly this is much worse than any flu in the past century. But I don't blame anyone for
being suspicious when so many contract the disease either have mild symptoms or none at
all.
I really can't see COVID-19 as a bio-weapon, it's far too non-specific for that, but what I
might think possible is that someone developed it plus corresponding vaccine and
anti-COVID-19 drug to make billions out of it. The longer the release of the vaccine and drug
are delayed, the more valuable they become. If someone had released the vaccine straight
after COVID-19, it might be worth a few million dollars and the authorities would be very
suspicious, but if release was delayed for a few months it would be worth billions and every
country is so desperate for a vaccine/treatment they most likely be too bothered. It'd need a
new definition for the term vulture capitalist.
Let's also remember that Gilead/Rumsfeld were the driving forces with the Avian Flu Hoax
(Tamiflu) that resulted in scandals and mass profiting- Rumsfeld himself who was once CEO of
Gilead sold his Gilead shares and netted a handsome return.
Don't forget Rumsfelds attraction to vast sums of money. After Tamiflu, Aspartame, and now
Gilead there are still the two trillion $ that disappeared from Pentagon's accounts just
before 9/11.(The records/archives were in Bat 7, and the thing that hit the Pentagon itself,
exploded in the Finance/accounts section).
So statistically, where there is Rumsfeld it is 100% certain there is something that will
be profitable. Or should that be, where there is some profit to be made from a disaster, it
ought to be statistically possible to calculate the part that goes to Rummy?
So statistically, where there is Rumsfeld it is 100% certain there is something that will
be profitable. Or should that be, where there is some profit to be made from a disaster, it
ought to be statistically possible to calculate the part that goes to Rummy?
Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 29 2020 19:48 utc | 33
And why is that this obviously crony dude is always absent from scrutiny by the media and
Congress?
Why always the same circus of Biden and Trump?
The WHO initially opposed, then embraced lockdowns, and now it's apparently back to opposing
them again. Unlike other European states like Italy, Sweden implemented swift and early testing
regimes to weed out infected patients. This allowed it to avoid lockdowns and border closures,
relying instead on social distancing guidance. The country never closed its schools, and
although mortality rates have been markedly higher than its neighbors, the virus never
overwhelmed its hospital system. The Swedish government's approach is widely popular within
Sweden.
The director of the WHO's health emergencies program said the notion that Sweden hadn't done
much to combat the virus is simply not true.
Sweden has put in place a "very strong public health policy", said Dr. Mike Ryan. Unlike
many other countries, Sweden chose to rely on its "relationship with its citizenry" and trust
them to self-regulate. Its healthcare system has not been overwhelmed, he said, adding that its
approach could be a "model" for other countries when lockdowns begin to relax. "There are
lessons to be learnt by our colleagues in Sweden."
Remember the last time the WHO praised a "model" approach to tackling the virus? It was
praising China's strict lockdowns.
So, if a HIV patient suffers from and dies of a bacterial pneumonia (pneumococcus and
others) because his immune system is down due his HIV infection, then he's said to have died
of HIV. Correct?
If another HIV patient acquires Covid-19 and suffers from a virological pneumonia and
subsequently succumbs to it, then he has died of Covid-19? Did I get that right?
How about a Covid-19 positive person getting killed in a fatal car accident? Covid-19
then? What about cancer patients in their terminal phase, which in most cases ends by some
fatal organ failure?
Why don't you stop making sh*t up just so it fits your narrative?
Let's take a quick look at how CNN (Cuomo New Network) propaganda works. For but one example:
Here we get the apocalyptic, fear headline:
Deaths spiked as Covid-19 spread in March and April, new analysis finds
And then the story- on the side of your screen you will see a short interview with the
ever-reliable and now regularly featured "expert" Dr. Gupta to lend even more credibility to
this new "report."
And what does the report actually say? The essence of the report is found in the following
comment by Dan Weinberger, the lead epidemiologist(?), (or does he just study infectious
disease?) in the report:
"Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the team found about
15,000 excess deaths from March 1 to April 4. During the same time, states reported 8,000
deaths from Covid-19. "That is close to double," Dan Weinberger, who studies the epidemiology
of infectious diseases at Yale, told CNN.
The team could not show whether the increased deaths were due to coronavirus,
Weinberger said. But there are strong indications that they were. For instance, the team also
looked at data on doctor visits.
"What we see is that in many states, you see an increase in influenza-like illnesses,
and then a week or two later, you see an increase in deaths due to pneumonia and influenza,"
Weinberger said. "It provides some confirmation that what we are seeing is related to
coronavirus."
The first thing that stands out is that while the headline is worded so as to suggest (yet
elusively) a spike in deaths to Covid (meant to increase hysteria in the viewers- and improve
ratings) the report clearly states- "that it could not show whether the increased deaths were
due to coronavirus." Based on anecdotal evidence though, the report's author itself then goes
on to assert that as they have seen more "influenza like" illnesses that these "must be"
Covid cases- and why is that? Let's also keep in mind in the vast majority of these cases no
testing is being done to confirm or deny Covid.
Oddly deaths attributed to influenza (even as the CDC warned us in December we were in for
a bad flu season) have completely stalled and deaths from pneumonia have dropped off
significantly as well. Makes one wonder how all the flu and pneumonia deaths are being
categorized.
But the deceptions get even worse – as you can see there is an embedded link to the
study itself- and when you click that link you will be directed here:
The first item of note is who these authors get their funding from. As you can see the
authors are awash in money from medical organizations that have deep ties to pharmaceutical
companies. They are paid to do such studies.
Let's also keep in mind that this is a pre-print study that is not peer-reviewed yet CNN
(and WaPo) featured it and represented this as if the study was factual and beyond
reproach.
FUNDING:
(Dan Weinberger) DMW acknowledges support from grants R01AI123208 and R01AI137093 from
the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health. VEP
acknowledges support from grants R01AI112970 and R01AI137093 from the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases/National Institutes of Health. NGR acknowledges support from
grant R35GM119582 from the National Institute of General Medical Sciences/National Institutes
of Health and 1U01IP001122 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). TC
acknowledges support from R01AI146555 from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious
Diseases/National Institutes of Health. LS acknowledges support from the Carlsberg Foundation
grant # CF20-0046. FWC acknowledges support from NICHD grant 1DP2HD091799-01.
But it gets worse as stated in the next paragraph which precedes the study we can see the
lead author of the study has direct conflicts of interest here through his connections to
pharmaceutical companies that stand to profit handsomely from the entirety of the Covid
business model:
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST:
DMW has received consulting fees from Pfizer, Merck, GSK, and Affinivax for topics
unrelated to this manuscript and is Principal Investigator on a research grant from Pfizer on
an unrelated topic. VEP has received reimbursement from Merck and Pfizer for travel
expenses to Scientific Input Engagements unrelated to the topic of this manuscript.
An intrepid reporter certainly should ask each of the authors to disclose their stock
holdings and also examine the financial contributions received by The Yale School of Public
Health where these authors work.
So we are to trust a pre-print, non peer reviewed study by authors who have direct ties to
the very companies that will profit from this? CNN believes we should- so are we to believe
CNN?
The latest round of 'surveillance' testing for coronavirus antibodies was
done on first responders, and found that the number who tested positive was once again
surprisingly high.
And we haven't paid our recent 'restaurant bill' now owed to the bankers, payable in about
three years, when we are going to be drained of several pints of financial blood!
And in Australia, with about eighty deaths, the panic borders on the insane!
It really astounds me that the Covid-19 hyperventilators fail to understand that starvation
is 100% lethal, and immune compromised people due to malnutrition are much more susceptible
to any disease that comes along.
As the supply lines collapse, and with winter in the
northern hemisphere coming in a mere 6 months, you can expect that the number of dead by
starvation, and from other diseases attacking mal-nourished people, will utterly dwarf the
number of dead from Covid-19 complications.
Many commenters here don't want us to hold our government accountable for that failure. They
just want to move on.
The ruling-class/establishment always portrays neo-liberal policies as beneficial to the
working class/middle-class. It is generally only superficially so. The fact is, neolib
government policy is essentially:
corporate welfare (like bailouts) and pay-offs to the wealthy (tax cuts);
socialized bads (we're in this together!) among the lower classes.
... ... ...
IMO this is likely because Big Pharma and government budgets benefit from
continuing failures that could best be summed up as culling the herd. Big Pharma could lose
billions of dollars of potential profits from treating old people with expensive and/or
experimental drugs. And governments (wealthy taxpayers, really) could save billions more if
older people die quickly: the last year of care is the most expensive and pensions are
underfunded.
Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has come out in favor of reducing restrictions on freedoms and
businesses, sparking a fierce debate on Twitter. Some lauded him and others chastised him for
putting profits ahead of people's safety. The Tesla and SpaceX founder called on Wednesday for
the US to lift the lockdown, tweeting "FREE AMERICA NOW" and "Give people their
freedom back!"
He also attached links to a Wall Street Journal article suggesting lockdowns were
ineffective and to another praising Texas for announcing more businesses will be allowed to
reopen on Friday.
The billionaire has been known as a vocal critic of the "panic" around the novel
coronavirus, having previously branded the behavior "dumb" and keeping his Tesla
car factory in California running despite local shelter-in-place laws.
But his new string of tweets has managed to quickly divide opinions online. While some
praised Musk for his commitment to liberty, others accused him of being reckless and of placing
profits over people.
There were those who accused Musk of being "drunk with power." Even his supporters,
like one named Sylvia Kane, told the polymath to "get
some sleep" .
What science are you following, EM? Clearly you know something the doctors and scientists
don't
Others chastised the SpaceX tycoon for seemingly choosing to ignore scientific evidence,
with critics like actor Bill Moseley wondering"what science"
Musk was now following, and sports presenter Dave Zirin saying that "wanting your workers to
die for you while you stay in your compound isn't exactly courage."
However, there was no shortage of commenters praising Musk for his commitment to liberty,
with President Donald Trump supporter Melissa A. responding to the tweet by saying "the
scariest thing about this pandemic" was "seeing Americans bow down" to "corrupt
politicians who promise them safety." Musk clearly approved of this take by replying:
"True."
A conservative media host Joey Saladino was quick to claim that
"When the smartest man in the world is saying this, it is time to FREE AMERICA!"
Musk's "FREE AMERICA" comments appear to echo Trump's sentiments about the lockdown,
after the president took to Twitter last week urging several US states to "LIBERATE"
themselves.
Last month, Musk committed to providing California with 1,000 ventilators. However there
seems to have been some confusion over whether or not Musk's aid has actually arrived. The
Sacramento Bee reported on April 14 that no hospitals in the state had received any ventilators
promised by the billionaire.
Musk vociferously denied that accusation, after it was picked up by CNN, saying that Tesla
had delivered hundreds of ventilators.
It is possible to conclude that there is evidence of excess mortality in Portugal between
March 1 and April 22, 2020 during the COVID-19 lockdown even using the usual baselines
(mean, median).
By adopting baselines more consistent with the lockdown, the excess mortality becomes
more evident, with estimated 2400 to 4000 potential excess deaths during this period.
The observed excess of mortality is associated with older age groups (over age 65).
The reduction of more than 191,000 daily hospital ED visits occurred between March 1 -
April 22 may potentially be associated with 1291 or more deaths .
Overall, these
results point towards an excess mortality that is associated with and that is 3 to 5-fold
higher than the official COVID-19 mortality.
It is interesting that the study chose to compare all-cause mortality but also against a
different period of the year in an attempt to reflect the reduced movement under the lockdown
more akin to the holiday period. The resulting increased excess-mortality give way for the
authors hypothesis that this is explained by the reduction in visits to hospital.
I will comment though that the authors' estimating method could never be made official for
the purposes that those are used, and their assessment of "3 to 5-fold higher than the
official COVID-19 mortality" is being on the side of the sensationalistic if they are
suggesting that we could replace one with the other. Despite this it is a welcome study.
"For the purposes of argument, I am going to put an extremely conservative figure of 5
million on the number of people who died as a result of Western military intervention, direct
or proxy, in the Middle East.
Now compare that to the worldwide death toll from coronavirus: 220,000. Let me say that
again.
Western aggressive wars to coronavirus: 5,000,000 : 220,000."
This is one time I have to respectful disagree. The virus is certainly real but the hysteria
is totally unjustified. I live in the city and state with supposedly the highest number of
cornivirus death but yet you have hospitals and facilitysb designated for infected person are
empty.....we have doctors and nurses being forced to label any death as cornivirus death.....
and also any death labeled cornivirus has been monetized....
For the past few weeks, more than 50 scientists have been working diligently to do something
that the Food and Drug Administration mostly has not: Verifying that 14 coronavirus
antibody tests now on the market actually deliver accurate results.
These tests are crucial to reopening the economy, but public health experts have raised
urgent concerns about their quality. The new research, completed just days ago and posted
online Friday, confirmed some of those fears: Of the 14 tests, only three delivered consistently reliable results . Even the
best had some flaws.
The research has not been peer-reviewed and is subject to revision. But the results are
already raising difficult questions about the course of the epidemic.
Surveys of residents in the Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York this week found that
substantial percentages tested positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the official name of the
new coronavirus. In New York City, the figure was said to be as high as 21 percent. Elsewhere,
it was closer to 3 percent.
The idea that many residents in some parts of the country have already been exposed to the
virus has wide implications. At the least, the finding could greatly complicate plans to reopen
the economy.
Already Americans are scrambling to take antibody tests to see if they might escape
lockdowns. Public health experts are wondering if those with positive results might be allowed
to return to work.
But these tactics mean nothing if the test results can't be trusted.
In the new research, researchers found that only one of the tests never delivered a
so-called false positive -- that is, it never mistakenly signaled antibodies in people who did
not have them.
Two other tests did not deliver false-positive results 99 percent of the time. But the
converse was not true. Even these three tests detected antibodies in infected people only 90
percent of the time, at best.
The false-positive metric is particularly important. The result may lead people to
believe themselves immune to the virus when they are not, and to put themselves in danger by
abandoning social distancing and other protective measures.
It is also the result on which scientists are most divided.
"There are multiple tests that look reasonable and promising," said Dr. Alexander Marson, an
immunologist at the University of California, San Francisco, and one of the project's leaders.
"That's some reason for optimism."
Dr. Marson is also an investigator in the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, which partly funded the
study.
Other scientists were less sanguine than Dr. Marson. Four of the tests produced
false-positive rates ranging from 11 percent to 16 percent; many of the rest hovered around 5
percent.
"... By JoNel Aleccia, Senior Correspondent at Kaiser Health News, who previously reported for The Seattle Times, NBCNews.com, TODAY.com and MSNBC.com. Originally published at Kaiser Health News ..."
By JoNel Aleccia, Senior Correspondent at Kaiser Health News, who previously reported
for The Seattle Times, NBCNews.com, TODAY.com and MSNBC.com. Originally published at
Kaiser Health News
After hearing for months about serious access issues involving tests that diagnose COVID-19
based on swabs from the nose or throat, Americans are being inundated with reports about
promising new tests that look for signs of infection in the blood.
There are high hopes for these antibody tests, which detect proteins that form in blood as
part of the body's immune response to an invading virus. Communities across the U.S. have been
rolling out the results of serological surveys that examine blood samples from people who
haven't been diagnosed with COVID-19 to see if they were, in fact, previously infected.
The thinking is, if there are blood markers that can detect when people have been infected,
such tests should be able to tell us how widely the novel coronavirus has spread. And equally
optimistic: those same antibodies could convey immunity to the disease, signaling someone is
safe from reinfection and able to get back to work.
Such high hopes, however, are running smack into the roadblocks of reality.
Infectious disease experts are raising pointed questions about the reliability of the early
tests and the studies that hinge on their results. And they warn that state and local
governments -- as well as individuals -- should be wary of shaping policy or changing behavior
based on any single report.
In the sharpest caution to date, officials with the World Health Organization on Saturday
warned against plans for proposed "immunity passports," which would allow people who have
recovered from the coronavirus to resume unrestricted travel and work.
"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have
antibodies are protected from a second infection," the agency wrote in a scientific brief.
Even before the WHO weighed in, other experts were urging restraint in interpreting early
results of antibody screening.
"The science is catching up," said Dr. Liise-anne Pirofski, chief of the division of
infectious diseases at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Montefiore Health System.
"Our ability to make a test at the moment is much greater than our understanding of what those
antibodies we are testing for mean."
In the past few weeks, more than 180 academic centers, hospitals and private manufacturers
have notified the federal Food and Drug Administration that they intend to create serology
tests for COVID-19, spokesperson Stephanie Caccomo said in an email. They've been able to jump
into the fray because the FDA in March
relaxed regulations for developing tests as part of its emergency response to the
pandemic.
But the FDA has not reviewed the vast majority of tests on the market, and their validity,
particularly point-of-care blood tests that promise rapid results within minutes, isn't clear,
said Dr. Michael Busch, director of the Vitalant Research Institute and a professor of
laboratory medicine at the University of California-San Francisco.
"Some of them have sensitivities that are quite poor," he said. "You may even miss some
infected people completely."
Other tests may flag people as positive for COVID-19 when they're not infected. That's
especially true in regions of the country with little spread of the novel virus. If the
prevalence of a disease is low, less than 5%, even an accurate test would yield a high number
of false positive results because of the way such screening tools operate.
So when people see advertisements for finger-prick antibody tests becoming widely available
at urgent care centers and medispas, they should think twice.
For one, antibody tests can't be used to diagnose the disease. Antibodies may not be present
in high enough levels to be detected in the earliest days of an infection. And because there
are several other known coronaviruses -- including those that cause the common cold -- people
infected with those viruses could produce antibodies that cross-react with those produced in
response to the new virus.
Scientists still know too little about whether antibodies to COVID-19 convey immunity that
could allow people to put away masks and halt social distancing, said Dr. Mary Hayden, director
of the division of clinical microbiology at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago.
Immunity to a virus is a complicated process that takes place over one to two weeks, the WHO
noted. The immune system makes antibodies in response to an infection. But the body also makes
T-cells that recognize and eliminate other cells infected with the virus, creating what's known
as cellular immunity. Those two processes together may help a person recover and prevent
reinfection. But it is not yet clear whether cellular immunity is required to bolster recovery
and prevent subsequent infection with COVID-19.
"We do not know whether or not the antibodies detected are protective," Hayden told
reporters last week on a call organized by the
Infectious Diseases Society of America . "We recommend that people with antibodies not
change their behavior in any way."
Scientists are hoping, however, that future COVID-19 studies may demonstrate immunity that
could last for one or two years.
Concerns about the validity of the tests have cast a shadow on several recent reports aiming
to quantify the spread of the virus in specific regions. Last week, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo
revealed the results of a serological survey that suggested that 1 in 5 New
York City residents had been infected with the coronavirus. Statewide, the figure was
13.9%, according to the study of 3,000 New Yorkers in 19 counties who were recruited at grocery
stores.
But the results quickly drew criticism. Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, who directs the city's
disease control, warned that the tests could produce
"false negative or false positive results. " Florian Krammer, a microbiology professor at
the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai who designs such tests, tweeted -- and later
deleted -- that the results were "BS."
"I think this is too high," he said in a later tweet. "It is
possible. But a 20% plus infection rate seems too high for NYC due to a number of reasons. I
would think 6-8%, maybe 10% are closer to the truth. It would be nice to know more about the
test, its sensitivity and specificity and the test population."
Similarly, two serology studies in California, one in Santa Clara County and one in Los
Angeles County, drew wide criticism about the recruitment of subjects and the analyses
used.
In the Santa Clara study ,
Stanford University researchers tested 3,330 volunteers for antibodies showing exposure to
COVID-19; about 1.5% were positive. They concluded that meant from 48,000 to 81,000 people were
infected with the virus in the county.
"It was completely inadequate to interpret the results that 50,000 to 80,000 people were
infected," Busch said.
The L.A. study, conducted by University of Southern California researchers, concluded that
2.8%
to 5.6% of the county's adult population had been exposed to the coronavirus. That
translates to 221,000 to 422,000 adult residents who have been infected. Critics, however,
argued that the study sample was too small and that details of the methodology weren't
immediately available.
Busch understands the drive to conduct such tests.
"People are asking the questions: What's the real denominator to judge the case counts and
the death counts against?" he said. "People are urgently trying to get data."
Unfortunately, that data simply is not available yet, other experts said. This coronavirus
has never been seen before, so the science that will inform efforts to help communities respond
and recover is playing out in real time.
"The problem is that the science has not kept up with the tests," Hayden said. "Now we need
to do the research to tell what the results mean."
On the positive side, most of the scientific community has pivoted to focus on finding
solutions, said Pirofski, who was also on the IDSA call. "We just have to slow our roll."
"This is our first dive in trying to understand what's going on," she said. "I would say
it's a start."
"... First of all, because Stoics believe that our true good resides in our own character and actions, they would frequently remind themselves to distinguish between what's "up to us" and what isn't. Modern Stoics tend to call this "the dichotomy of control" and many people find this distinction alone helpful in alleviating stress. What happens to me is never directly under my control, never completely ..."
"... Marcus likes to ask himself, "What virtue has nature given me to deal with this situation?" That naturally leads to the question: "How do other people cope with similar challenges?" Stoics reflect on character strengths such as wisdom, patience and self-discipline, which potentially make them more resilient in the face of adversity. They try to exemplify these virtues and bring them to bear on the challenges they face in daily life, during a crisis like the pandemic. They learn from how other people cope. Even historical figures or fictional characters can serve as role models. ..."
"... fear does us more harm than the things of which we're afraid. ..."
"... Finally, during a pandemic, you may have to confront the risk, the possibility, of your own death. Since the day you were born, that's always been on the cards. Most of us find it easier to bury our heads in the sand. Avoidance is the No1 most popular coping strategy in the world. We live in denial of the self-evident fact that we all die eventually. ..."
"... "All that comes to pass", he tells himself, even illness and death, should be as "familiar as the rose in spring and the fruit in autumn". Marcus Aurelius, through decades of training in Stoicism, in other words, had taught himself to face death with the steady calm of someone who has done so countless times already in the past. ..."
T he Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius Antoninus was the last famous
Stoic philosopher of antiquity. During the last 14 years of his life he faced one of the worst
plagues in European history. The Antonine Plague, named after him, was probably caused by a
strain of the smallpox virus. It's estimated to have killed up to 5 million people, possibly
including Marcus himself.
="rich-link__link u-faux-block-link__overlay" aria-label="'What it means to be an American':
Abraham Lincoln and a nation divided"
href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/apr/11/abraham-lincoln-verge-book-ted-widmer-interview">
From AD166 to around AD180, repeated outbreaks occurred throughout the known world. Roman
historians describe the legions being devastated, and entire towns and villages being
depopulated and going to ruin. Rome itself was particularly badly affected, carts leaving the
city each day piled high with dead bodies.
In the middle of this plague, Marcus wrote a book, known as The Meditations, which records
the moral and psychological advice he gave himself at this time. He frequently applies Stoic
philosophy to the challenges of coping with pain, illness, anxiety and loss. It's no stretch of
the imagination to view The Meditations as a manual for developing precisely the mental
resilience skills required to cope with a pandemic.
First of all, because Stoics believe that our true good resides in our own character and
actions, they would frequently remind themselves to distinguish between what's "up to us" and
what isn't. Modern Stoics tend to call this "the dichotomy of control" and many people find
this distinction alone helpful in alleviating stress. What happens to me is never directly
under my control, never completely up to me, but my own thoughts and actions are
– at least the voluntary ones. The pandemic isn't really under my control but
the way I behave in response to it is.
Much, if not all, of our thinking is also up to us. Hence, "It's not events that upset us
but rather our opinions about them." More specifically, our judgment that something is really
bad, awful or even catastrophic, causes our distress.
This is one of the basic psychological principles of Stoicism. It's also the basic
premise of modern cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), the leading evidence-based form of
psychotherapy. The pioneers of CBT, Albert Ellis and Aaron T Beck, both describe Stoicism as
the philosophical inspiration for their approach. It's not the virus that makes us afraid but
rather our opinions about it. Nor is it the inconsiderate actions of others, those ignoring
social distancing recommendations, that make us angry so much as our opinions about them.
Many people are struck, on reading The Meditations, by the fact that it opens with a chapter
in which Marcus lists the qualities he most admires in other individuals, about 17 friends,
members of his family and teachers. This is an extended example of one of the central practices
of Stoicism.
Marcus likes to ask himself, "What virtue has nature given me to deal with this
situation?" That naturally leads to the question: "How do other people cope with similar
challenges?" Stoics reflect on character strengths such as wisdom, patience and
self-discipline, which potentially make them more resilient in the face of adversity. They try
to exemplify these virtues and bring them to bear on the challenges they face in daily life,
during a crisis like the pandemic. They learn from how other people cope. Even historical
figures or fictional characters can serve as role models.
With all of this in mind, it's easier to understand another common slogan of Stoicism:
fear does us more harm than the things of which we're afraid. This applies to
unhealthy emotions in general, which the Stoics term "passions" – from pathos ,
the source of our word "pathological". It's true, first of all, in a superficial sense. Even if
you have a 99% chance, or more, of surviving the pandemic, worry and anxiety may be ruining
your life and driving you crazy. In extreme cases some people may even take their own
lives.
In that respect, it's easy to see how fear can do us more harm than the things of which
we're afraid because it can impinge on our physical health and quality of life. However, this
saying also has a deeper meaning for Stoics. The virus can only harm your body – the
worst it can do is kill you. However, fear penetrates into the moral core of our being. It can
destroy your humanity if you let it. For the Stoics that's a fate worse than death.
Finally, during a pandemic, you may have to confront the risk, the possibility, of your
own death. Since the day you were born, that's always been on the cards. Most of us find it
easier to bury our heads in the sand. Avoidance is the No1 most popular coping strategy in the
world. We live in denial of the self-evident fact that we all die eventually. The
Stoics believed that when we're confronted with our own mortality, and grasp its implications,
that can change our perspective on life quite dramatically. Any one of us could die at any
moment. Life doesn't go on forever.
We're told this was what Marcus was thinking about on his deathbed. According to one
historian, his circle of friends were distraught. Marcus calmly asked why they were weeping for
him when, in fact, they should accept both sickness and death as inevitable, part of nature and
the common lot of mankind. He returns to this theme many times throughout The Meditations.
"All that comes to pass", he tells himself, even illness and death, should be as
"familiar as the rose in spring and the fruit in autumn". Marcus Aurelius, through decades of
training in Stoicism, in other words, had taught himself to face death with the steady calm of
someone who has done so countless times already in the past.
Donald Robertson is cognitive behavioural therapist and the author of several books on
philosophy and psychotherapy, including Stoicism and the Art of Happiness and How to Think Like
a Roman Emperor: The Stoic Philosophy of Marcus Aurelius
Firstly, let's establish the data: As of 22nd April, 119 "NHS workers" were reported to have
died of Covid19. Thirteen of them were excluded from the study for being either retired or
never confirmed to work for the NHS.
That left 106 NHS staff who died of alleged Covid19.
Secondly, we should clear up the misconception that this represents just "frontline"
healthcare workers. It doesn't.
This number includes 35 nurses, 18 doctors and 27 healthcare assistants (HCAs), they are all
"frontline" workers. But it also includes 36 others (dentists, psychiatrists, porters,
administrators, receptionists etc).
Finally, let's put these numbers in some context:
The NHS is the biggest single employer in the UK. NHS England, NHS Scotland and NHS Wales
employ roughly 1.5 million people (Wikipedia estimates over 1.7 million
). That's over 4% of the 38 million working-age adults, or 2.5% of the entire population of the
UK.
As such, you would expect roughly 2.5% of the Covid19 victims to be NHS employees (assuming
proportionate distribution).
However, the 106 NHS employees represent only 0.58% of the UK's 18,200 total Covid19
casualties as of April 22nd.
To put it another way:
Any randomly selected citizen of the UK has a 1/39 chance of being
employed by the NHS. But any randomly selected "Covid19 related death" has a 1/172 chance of
being employed by the NHS.
In summary: In direct contradiction of the media coverage, healthcare workers are NOT being
disproportionately affected by Covid19. They are actually substantially
under-represented .
US attorney
Robert F Kennedy Jr says that top Trump advisor Anthony Fauci has made the reckless choice
to
fast track vaccines, partially
funded by Gates , without critical
animal studies . Gates is so worried about the danger of adverse events that he says
vaccines shouldn't be distributed until governments
agree to indemnity against lawsuits.
But this should come as little surprise. The Gates Foundation and its global vaccine agenda
already has much to answer for. Instead of prioritizing projects that are proven to curb
infectious diseases and improve health – clean water, hygiene, nutrition and economic
development – Kennedy notes that the Gates Foundation spends
only about $650 million of its $5 billion budget on these areas.
It is fair to say that the Gates Foundation has an agenda: it believes that many of its aims
can be delivered via the barrel of a syringe. It has
been well documented in recent weeks about how the Gates Foundation has spread its
tentacles into every facet of global health policy.
For instance, it is a major funder of the World Health Organization and donates to other
pivotal players in the COVID-19 saga, not least Imperial College London whose Neil Ferguson
produced hugely flawed data upon which the UK government implemented a lockdown, which entailed
sanctioning draconian state
powers and stripping of people's basic rights via the Coronavirus Emergency Act.
Although often alluded to, Gates's push for cashless societies is given less attention in
the current climate but is just as important. It is not only the major pharmaceutical
corporations which the Gates Foundation is firmly in bed with (along with the big
agri-food players ), it is also embedded with Wall Street financial interests.
The global shift from cash towards digital transactions is being spearheaded by Bill Gates
and US financial corporations who will profit from digital payments. At the same time, by
controlling digital payments (and removing cash), you can control and monitor everything a
country and its citizens do and pay for.
As a research scientist in the life sciences at Imperial College, this interview is the
best source of information I have seen on the internet. Thank you so much.
This format where you ask a question and allow a detailed response was delightful!
Watching this conversation between two highly skilled and intelligent doctors who are full of
compassion has given me hope. Please do more video's like this ? Well done doctors well
done!
I am a retired Teamster in Syracuse, New York, who joined the civil rights, antiwar, and
environmental movements as a teenager in the San Francisco Bay Area in the 1960s. In 1984, I
co-founded the Green Party. In 2010, I was the first U.S. candidate to campaign for a Green
New Deal in the first of three campaigns for New York governor that won Green Party ballot
lines.
To end the climate crisis, I have detailed an Ecosocialist Green New Deal to create 38
million new jobs, 100% clean energy, and zero carbon emissions by 2030.
To end poverty and economic insecurity, I propose an Economic Bill of Rights: job
guarantee, guaranteed minimum income, affordable housing, improved Medicare for all,
tuition-free public education pre–K to college, and secure retirement by doubling
Social Security.
To end endless wars, I support 75% military spending cuts, U.S. troops home, diplomacy,
international law, human rights, and a Global Green New Deal.
To end the new nuclear arms race, I favor no first use, minimum credible deterrent, and
ratification of the new Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty.
I support unions, $20 minimum wage, worker co-ops, public banks, public energy, public
railroads, progressive taxation, net neutrality, internet privacy, ending mass surveillance,
no nukes, no fracking, abortion rights, student and medical debt relief, decriminalizing
drugs, ending mass incarceration, police under community control, immigrant amnesty,
African-American reparations, Indian and Mexican-American treaty rights, whistleblower and
political prisoner pardons, and presidential elections by National Popular Vote using
Ranked-Choice Voting. [Ranked Choice Voting is a huge fraud -- which many well-meaning people
fall for]
// ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I had posted this comment at the 'coronavirus and smoking' thread, but it looks like it may
be a major advance on understanding COVID-19 and how it affects the body so will post it here
as well.
Varga has been able to use an electron microscope to verify for the first time that
SARS-CoV-2 is present and causes cell necrosis in endothelial tissue.
Endothelial tissue is a cell layer that acts as a protective shield in blood vessels and
regulates and balances out various processes in the microvessels. The disruption of this
regulatory process can, for example, cause circulatory disorders in organs and body tissue,
resulting in cellular necrosis and thus to the death of these organs or tissue...
... This means that the virus not only triggers the inflammation of the lungs, which
then causes further complications, but is also directly responsible for systemic
endotheliitis, an inflammation of all endothelial tissue in the body which affects all
vessel beds – in heart, brain, lung and renal vessels as well as vessels in the
intestinal tract....
...The endothelial tissue of younger patients is usually capable of coping well with the
attacks launched by the virus. The situation is different for patients suffering from
hypertension, diabetes, heart failure or coronary heart diseases, all of which have one
thing in common – their endothelial function is markedly impaired. If patients such
as these become infected with SARS-COV-2, they will be particularly at risk, as their
already weakened endothelial function will diminish even further, especially during the
phase in which the virus reproduces the most.
It was actually quite a thing in the 1940's and 1950's for diseases like septicemia,
pneumonia, tuberculosis, arthritis, asthma and even poliomyelitis.
Low and mild doses of UV kill microorganisms by damaging the DNA, while any DNA damage in
host cells can be rapidly repaired by DNA repair enzymes.
Having done a bit of reading on porphyrins of late and seeing a NY doctor mentioning that
covid-19 patients have hypoxia w/o pneumonia and good lung function got me thinking. This may
be due to the porphyrin heme is unable to transport oxygen , perhaps because the virus
somehow has displaced iron from the porphyrin (heme) , and makes me wonder if UV light can
help in this regard .
Porphyrins are highly pigmented (heme gives blood its red color) fluorescent molecules .
Strong pigments are always efficient energy absorbers, and if they are also fluorescent like
porphyrins, they are also good energy transmitters.
Porphyrins are more efficient energy transmitters than any other of life's components. In
technical terms, their ionization potential is low, and their electron affinity high. They
are therefore capable of transmitting large amounts of energy rapidly in small steps, one
low-energy electron at a time. They can even transmit energy electronically from oxygen to
other molecules, instead of dissipating that energy as heat and burning up. That's why
breathing is possible.
The word porphyrin is derived from the Greek porphura meaning purple. The pandemic
exercise last year was named Crimson Contagion. Crimson is a strong, red color, inclining to
purple like heme. Coincidence?
Could it be that whatever is causing COVID-19 , and we dont know for sure because kochs
postulate was not fulfilled on the virus China said they isolated, that it is infecting or
altering a porphyrin like heme?
Completely out of my depth here of course. Food for thought though.
Interesting comment about crimson contegion. The attack on hemogloblin was reported a few
weeks ago but has since disappeared. Do not know if it was true. Perhaps UVC in conjunction
with ECMO which involves shunting blood outside the body and then back again may be a means
to kill the virus, thus suppressing the disease progression.
The evidence we have is pretty clear that people who have been living in places that are
more polluted over time, that they are more likely to die from coronavirus – Aaron
Bernstein
The study, which looked across 3,080 counties in the United States, also found people who
have lived in counties with long-term pollution exposure for 15-20 years have significantly
higher mortality rates, says Wu.
While the study has yet to be peer-reviewed by independent experts, Wu says that the
association is likely down to the higher risk of existing respiratory and heart diseases in
areas of higher pollution. Air pollution is also known to weaken
the immune system , compromising people's ability to fight off infection, according to the
European Public Health Alliance.
"If Manhattan had lowered its average particulate matter level by just a single unit, or one
microgram per cubic meter, over the past 20 years, the borough would most likely have seen 248
fewer Covid-19 deaths by this point in the outbreak [4 April 2020]," the researchers
conclude.
A study of air quality in
Italy's northern provinces of Lombardy and Emilia Romagna also found a correlation between
Covid-19 mortality rates and high levels of pollution. Lombardy makes up the vast majority of
the country's deaths,
at 13,325 of Italy's 26,644 as of 26 April , while Emilia Romagna was the province with the
next greatest death toll, at 3,386. The researchers questioned the role of low air quality in
their becoming hotspots, concluding that: "the high level of pollution in northern Italy should
be considered an additional co-factor of the high level of lethality recorded in that
area".
You could pick any city in the world and expect to see an effect of air pollution on
people's risk of getting sicker from coronavirus – Aaron Bernstein
These are not the first studies to highlight a substantial link between air
pollution levels and deaths from viral diseases. A 2003 study found
that patients with Sars, a respiratory virus closely related to Covid-19, were 84% more likely
to die if they lived in areas with high levels of pollution.
When the idea 'lungs affected by' 'pneumonia' plus 'smoking' plus 'Chinese men bigly smokers
(women not)' came up, I posted, this is junk!
Smoking reduces ACE2 receptors, these being (reportedly ..) 'the' or 'one of the' entry
avenues for cov-19 virus.
That social media was, is, filled with such rubbish is understandable, as smoking has
become in many places a marker of low status, smokers are disgusting ppl, druggies,
polluters, child killers, gutter filth.
Note the difference with cocaine users who tend to be quite well off - at least in EU -
and get a pass, nobody is screaming your doc is mad high and will cut in the wrong place, or
X leader is coked up talking BS...(Macron?)
Yet, that supposedly serious authorative organisms like the CDC in the US (and all the MSM
following) blithely announce being a smoker as a condition that is co-morbid is worrisome. I
checked just now and today the CDC has removed 'smoking' as part of the list of conditions
that make ppl vulnerable.
What about the other conditions, characteristics? They are all correlated with older age,
being in a 'rich' country, aka more elderly living taking a pile of pills everyday.
So is having gray hair (correlates with age), is losing 2 cms in height (correlates with
age), taking X meds, eating junk food, or more, leading to cov-19 deaths? What really makes
older ppl more susceptible to death by nov-19?
None of this informs us about the cellular (or more general) mechanisms of the virus, its
attack, success in function of x y z factors or whatever. All very shoddy check boxes (with
no solid support) parading as 'Your Gvmt top info.'
Plus, the few stand out group-differences that could lead to some insight, such as death
of men, much higher vs. women, are not considered seriously (or only so in a few
publications, etc.)
@Mina #102
All true, but again, not clear where density ranks in the grand scheme of nCOV impact.
Just for grins - I did a quick experiment on US states. Specifically I compared the absolute
ranking of each state in terms of density vs. its ranking in nCOV mortality per unit
population: US state density vs. nCOV mortality
The top 12 states in terms of nCOV mortality - almost all of them are roughly also the
densest states.
DC is the densest and is #7 in nCOV mortality.
New Jersey is #2 in both.
New York is #1 in mortality and #10 in density.
The major outliers in the top 12 nCOV mortality is Louisiana (due to Mardi Gras) and
Michigan (?).
Other outliers: Washington state: +14 nCOV mortality vs. density - but of course
Washington state is where nCOV kicked off in the US.
The 3 island territories and Hawaii are all hugely below their density rankings - that's
clearly a case of isolation working.
Excluding those 4, the average state is +3 places in nCOV mortality vs. density.
The top 12 nCOV mortality average average +5 places in nCOV mortality vs. density.
This certainly doesn't prove anything, but is interesting.
Several serological studies for the presence of IgM-IgG antibodies have concluded that the
percentage of individuals infected with the COVID-19 virus SARS-CoV-2 is 50-80x higher than
the recorded cases, due to recovered asymptomatic cases that were not tested during the
infection using the RT-PCR test.
Unfortunately, this serological test yields very high false positives "due to past or
present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63,
OC43, or 229E." Yes, if a person has had a common cold they would likely test positive!!! https://www.biomedomics.com/products/infectious-disease/covid-19-rt/
Other limitations mentioned by this manufacturer include:
(1) Lacks FDA review due to the urgency of testing;
(2) "Negative results do not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly in those who have
been in contact with the virus. Follow-up testing with a molecular diagnostic should be
considered to rule out infection in these individuals.";
(3) "Results from antibody testing should not be used as the sole basis to diagnose or
exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection or to inform infection status." "The COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test
can be used to screen patients suspected of having been affected by the novel coronavirus.
However, results of test should not be the only basis for diagnosis.";
(4) Only used on fresh samples and tested immediately;
(5) "Results are valid 10 minutes after sample and buffer are combined in the cassette sample
well. ";
(6) This test has a low sensitivity, as it has been determined to detect only 88.66% of those
confirmed to be positive by the PCR test;
(7) This test have a low specificity of 90.63%, as 9.37% of those patients tested were not
SARS-CoV-2 infected;
Other issues with serological testing in the fore mentioned studies include":
(1) Lack of random sampling for age, sex, ethnic background, socio-economic status etc.
(2) Potential of super-recruiter bias from word of mouth of the drive by test site(s)
Given the measured sensitivity and selectivity from the above test one can calculate the
following for a 1% infection rate (10,000) among one million people:
Positive cases found =8,866 (0.8866%)
False positives found= 92,763 (9.2763%)
Ratio of false/real =92,763/92,763+8,866 = 91.28% of positive tests are false
Thus the herd immunity is greatly exaggerated in serological testing. For instance, if a
serological study claims that 20% of the population has been exposed to COVID-19, the actual
percentage of the population exposed to this virus is actually 1.74%.
All such studies using serological testing should contain a BIG disclaimer on the accuracy
of the results.
Chinese
scientists have found that Europe and America's East Coast have been infected by some of the
most aggressive Covid-19 strains, as they discovered dozens of virus mutations. These destroy a
host's cells faster than others. The ability of the novel coronavirus to mutate has been
previously vastly underestimated, a team from China's Zhejiang University, led by Professor Li
Lanjuan, says in a new study. The group found as many as 33 virus mutations in just 11
coronavirus patients they examined in the city of Hangzhou.
The researchers say that 60 percent of the strains they discovered turned out to be entirely
new. In a worrying development, they also discovered that the virus's mutations directly affect
its deadliness. Their research revealed that the most aggressive type of Covid-19 could create
a virus load 270 times greater than the least potent one.
"Despite only 11 patient-derived isolates being analyzed in this study, we observed
abundant mutational diversity, including several founding mutations for different major
clusters of viruses now circulating globally," the study said.
The virus load is the measure of its quantity in a certain volume of bodily fluid, usually
blood plasma. It particularly shows how quickly a pathogen could propagate through the organism
and destroy its cells. Unfortunately for Europeans, one of the most aggressive strains found by
the Chinese scientists appears to be similar to the one that has spread across the continent,
particularly Italy and Spain, the pre-print of the study published on
the website medRxiv.org revealed on Sunday.
The same strain came from Europe to New York, which has since become one of the worst
affected US states. America's West Coast, however, appears to be infected by another, less
deadly strain that arrived directly from China.
Nonetheless, that doesn't mean those on the West Coast have less cause for concern, as even
less powerful strains can cause a serious ailment, the Zhejiang University team warns. They
note that two of the observed patients, in their 30s and 50s, who contracted a weaker strain,
still suffered severe symptoms.
Most importantly, though, the scientists say their discoveries could affect the development
of the much-needed vaccine, because a one-size-fits-all solution might not work in case of
Covid-19.
"Drug and vaccine development, while urgent, needs to take the impact of these
accumulating mutations, especially the founding mutations, into account to avoid potential
pitfalls," the team says.
Globally, the novel coronavirus has thus far infected more than 2.3 million people and
claimed more than 170,000 lives.
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I have to say that the last few paragraphs of your post, in which you say that the most
effective way of limiting the spread of COVID-19 is to isolate the sick in special quarantine
conditions in clinics or hotels set aside for just that purpose, can be used to argue against
a general shutdown of society across entire nations or regions, or even cities or communities
where COVID-19 clusters exist.
The Chinese information suggesting that 99% of infections occur indoors should prompt
builders, architects, engineers and aircdonditioning manufacturers to consider ways in which
conventional airconditioning systems in enclosed environments might be adjusted or redesigned
to mis fresh air with recycled and recycling air, so as to reduce the possibility of
spreading COVID-19 and other contagions (like Legionnaire's) through internal systems.
There may be a case for reintroducing some sports events that are normally played
outdoors, and even bringing professional indoor sports out into the open again. Basketball,
netball and other sports using a ball and hoop could become completely outdoors in their
professional formats like many other team sports, and might attract more fans. Gymnastics
used to be an outdoor sport as well. No reason why major gymnastics events at regional,
national and international levels can't be brought outdoors: special mats for floor exercises
and for protection could be made and used for outdoor events.
Even back then during SARS 1 some infections occured via the ventilation system.
One chinese report recently claimed hydrogen peroxide vapor in the hospital ventilation
system helped decrease Covid 19 symptoms among the patients.
HPV is highly effective for sterilisation purposes, including of N95 masks and hospital
equipment.
On the outdoor issue it is known that sun and heat kill this and other viruses, so it is
better if indoor activity also coincides with warm and sunny weather.
On the point of family or shared domicile infections, this is a good article about the
working class, immigrant area of Boston called Chelsea. It's a major hot zone of covid
infections. The images coming out of Chelsea are heart breaking.
That aside, the article shows that a key source of community spread is working class
poverty and the types of cramped housing that result from it. Racism and immigration are
obviously also part of the story.
But the article also sites, positively, the Chinese method of extracting people from their
homes to protect everyone.
The article indirectly indicts American capitalism and political and civic institutions
for being unable to replicate those effective Chinese methods.
The obvious implications of the article are that the covid crisis in the US is a social
one, that poverty is death, and that the struggle against the virus is inextricable from the
urgent necessity of socialist transformation.
"A two week quarantine in a hotel or public facility during which one is well provided
for...It is hard to understand why some people continue to reject this."
Because no one has ever seen government behave this way. Because we live in terror of the
police. Because in USA there is no public health infrastructure at all and any such program
would be administered by police.
The only way to combat COVID-19 is good old fashion public health principles of testing,
tracing and isolating the ill. Western governments have failed at their most fundamental job
of saving the lives of their citizens. This is not a coincidence. It is the direct result of
the end of democracy and the rise of the multi-national plutocracy. This is shown by the
corporate media's ignoring of the western national governments' failures to institute public
health measures; instead, it harps on Donald Trump's letting the light shine inside the body
to kill the virus.
The bankers got 4.5 trillion dollars. If a fraction of this was spent to prevent and stop
the spread of the coronavirus, 50,000 Americans would not be dead today. But that would
require a functional government and taxing the rich, homeless living inside Hilton hotels,
the last thing oligarchs want. So, "it is just like the flu". "Freedom", scapegoating",
"racism", and "shaming" are all used to hide the truth.
Whatever it is 'a flu', the 'common cold', an invention by the heroes of the Protocols of
Zion or a pandemic of the sort most of us think that we see around us and some of us feel is
a pure invention... whatever.
It is a crisis of Capitalism, a major crisis which calls all the conventional wisdom of
the past seventy going on three hundred years into question.
How has the market been doing?
What do we think of the invisible hand now?
Commodity prices are crumbling, supply chains are drying up. And all that the capitalist can
do is to scream racist insults- hoping that the people will forgive the famine if they can be
fed hatred of foreigners instead.
There have probably been more strikes in the US in the past three months than there had
been in the last ten years. A Universal Basic Income-the revival of the idea that the people
have first call on all resources- the polar opposite to Capitalism's insistence that the only
thing that makes people work is the fear of starving, is coming. It has to come, and when it
does one of the foundation stones of the entire edifice of exploitation is removed.
Next week we will see what happens when the capitalists order workers to risk their lives by
going back to work in workplaces that are unsafe, without proper masks and protective
gear.
And we will see here whose side commenters are on and how many are ready to progress from
trivialising the pandemic into strike breaking. Strike breaking in the name of
anti-authoritarianism; strike breaking packaged as 'right to work' freedoms.
The "cardiologists" in this report are either irresponsible, paid by the pharma/vaccine
lobby and/or are not keeping up with the medical literature.
Hydroxychloroquine is only effective in the onset of symptom and only in conjunction with
organically bound available zinc. The doctors administered hydroxychloroquine in the ICU at a
late stage of the dis-ease progression which is too late. They also used very high doses of
hydroxychloroquine (without zinc), resulting in toxicity issues as with any chlorinated
organic.
Azithromycin should be incorporated as a precautionary as it prevents secondary lung
infections but can enhance heart rhythm disorders . https://www.drugs.com/azithromycin.html
Yes, COVID-19 is not only a sudden acute respiratory disease (SARS). However, it is not a
blood infection either! The SARS-CoV-2 virus following infection, replication and release
primarily from cell in the nasal passages, throat and trachea does infect lung cells causing
fluid buildup and cellular debris, which provide nutrients for secondary bacterial infections
as well as current infections with mycobacteria in TB.
Yes the virus does travel visa the blood and can bind to ACE2 receptors in many other
organs besides the nasal passages, throat and lungs. It also binds to CD-127 receptors. The
proposed blood infection (red blood cells) mode of action has not been proven.
Yes free radicals are increased in the blood in part to the mechanism you mention but also
by reducing the vitamin C level in the bloodstream. The antioxidant properties of vitamin C
is why a Seattle doctor was able to recover using IV vitamin C along with an anti-arthritis
drug.
The principal cause of death is the cytokine storm that several posters have already
described over a month ago. Associated with this inflammation of tissues, particularly the
lung, is the deposition of fibrin in the capillary bed resulting in blockages and a lack of
gas transfer. These blockages cause the blood pressure to rise and even the heart to
"explode" if the blood has no where to go. https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-complications#1
MedCram series
Mass sport events still should be closed. The same is true for concert, mass prayers and
such. It is generally desirable to move professional sport event outdoor now and enforce social
distancing. Mega Churches should be closed until the Second Coming and prayers allowed only on
open air with proper social distanceing.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp: "We will allow gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art
studios, barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, aestheticians, their
respective schools, and massage therapists to reopen their doors this Friday, April the
24th."
#chloroquine
Pr Didier Raoult : "C'est quand les patients ont des formes modérées, moyennes, ou qui
commencent à s'aggraver, qu'il faut les traiter. A ce moment là on contrôle les virus qui se
multiplient. Quand ils sont rentrés en réanimation, le problème ce n'est plus le virus"
pic.twitter.com/WolGe2o05z
That did not stop Le Monde, France's biggest newspaper, of declaring his February 25 video as
"partially false
." Raoult's 'sin' was to argue that the common anti-malaria drug used widely for
decades resulted in
"dramatic improvements
" among those afflicted by the virus.
As a result of Le Monde's fact-check, anyone attempting to share Dr. Raoult's videos on Facebook
gets a banner saying the information therein was
"partially false"
as
"determined by
independent fact-checkers."
The main argument put forward by those critical of the drug is that more testing is required before
it can be officially approved as treatment for the coronavirus. As the US Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC)
puts it
,
"There are no currently available data from Randomized Clinical Trials to inform
clinical guidance on the use, dosing, or duration of hydroxychloroquine"
treatments for Covid-19.
Which is fair enough, but last time I checked, there was a
pandemic
going on, with
billions of people locked in their homes and all business grinding to a halt across the globe, over
apocalyptic predictions of hospitals brimming with corpses due to this coronavirus.
Should any kind of treatment – especially a drug that has been used safely for decades to treat
something else, with side effects meticulously documented – be so cavalierly rejected, under the
circumstances? Do
"experts
" really think the world has the luxury of waiting for months or
even years for their controlled lab studies?
As for the fact-checkers, shouldn't they have applied the same rigor to the models used to scare
everyone into hoarding toilet paper and setting off a depression orders of magnitude worse than
anything the world has ever seen?
To ask these questions is to answer them, yet no one seems to bother. Nor is this sort of selective
blindness endemic to France; across the Atlantic, the mainstream media raised their voices in unison
against chloroquine after US President Donald Trump brought it up as a possible treatment – apparently
referring to Dr. Raoult's work.
They went so far as to widely circulate a deliberately misleading story about an Arizona couple
that ate fish tank cleaner – chloroquine phosphate, clearly labeled not for human consumption – as
somehow Trump's fault. Some of them quietly amended it to specify the difference, but long after the
original story – implying they took the actual medication praised by the president – literally went
viral and poisoned the minds of millions.
Worse yet, as a result of this media blitz, the governor of Nevada actually banned using
chloroquine to treat Covid-19 patients this week, saying there was
"no consensus among experts or
Nevada doctors"
that the anti-malaria drug can treat coronavirus sufferers. There were no angry
editorials denouncing Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, for letting people die or the coronavirus rather than
have them treated with a drug endorsed by the Republican president and the media's favorite hate
object.
One would think the world paralyzed with fear of the invisible death would pounce on every possible
solution, no matter how unlikely it seems. That's what we're shown in Hollywood disaster movies, after
all. Yet when such a solution presents itself, it is dismissed and denounced as "
not proven"
!
We're supposed to blindly trust apocalyptic models produced by panic-mongering political hacks, but
ignore the man who says the drug brought him back from the brink of death, even though his story can
be easily verified and theirs cannot.
"Preferring opinions to facts is a disease
," Dr. Raoult told the French magazine Marianne
last week
. Just so.
I don't know if hydroxychloroquine works on Covid-19. Dr. Raoult seems to believe so, and he's not
alone. In the absence of better solutions – and locking billions of people in their homes indefinitely
is not one – don't we owe humanity to at least try? What do we have to lose?
In the three months or so since the coronavirus first appeared in China, there has been a lot of
conflicting, confusing and outright false information about it. One thing that has consistently proven
true, however, is that the biggest obstacle in effectively battling its spread and treating the
afflicted has been the obtuse insistence of the political and medical establishment on blindly
following their rules. If the virus is truly threatening to kill millions, as they say, they would not
value procedures over saving lives. Nevertheless, they persist. It makes one wonder why.
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The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are
solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.
As the world seeks a Covid-19 panacea, treating patients with plasma harvested from those who have
recovered from the virus is being touted as a possible cure – but big challenges still remain,
scientists say.
It's been months since the novel coronavirus started to rage across China, spilling over to other
countries and infecting more than a million people around the world, but there is still no clinically
tested vaccine or medication. However, one possible treatment that has been around for over a century
is attracting attention, with some scientists suggesting it could be a game-changer – provided that
certain flaws are removed.
What is this plasma treatment about?
The approach basically revolves around harvesting convalescent plasma, the yellowish liquid
component of human blood, from someone who recovered from a viral infection and transfusing it to a
newly infected patient.
Plasma is essential here because it is rich in antibodies – proteins that bind to parts of the
virus and neutralize it. Remarkably, antibodies are produced against specific types of viruses,
effectively becoming an
"anti-virus serum,"
Aleksey Kupryashov, head of blood transfusion at
Bakulev Center of Cardiovascular Surgery, explained to RT.
The idea behind the therapy is very straightforward – sharing antibodies taken from patients with a
robust immune system could help other, weaker ones to recover.
Conceptualized by German physiologist Emil von Behring – the first recipient of the Nobel Prize in
Medicine – the method has actually been around for over a century. Just recently, in mid-March, Arturo
Casadevall of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, and Liise-anne Pirofski of the Albert
Einstein Medical College championed the treatment, claiming infusions of antibodies could potentially
protect people from the virus for several weeks.
Later in the same month, their Chinese colleagues suggested that convalescent plasma had helped
Covid-19 patients even on ventilation, but their study was based on only five cases.
Is it efficient or at least SAFE?
As health workers used to say in the Hippocratic Oath, doing no harm is key in medicine. Can we be
sure that treating Covid-19 patients with antibody-packed plasma will do no harm?
"We transfuse hundreds of thousands [or] millions of blood units in hospitals, and the severe
outcomes are really low,"
Professor Jeff Bailey of the US-based Brown University told RT. The
logic behind using plasma against Covid-19 is
"very strong"
because
"a person who has
recovered has good antibodies that will block and neutralize the virus,"
he explained. However,
one big issue is that
"it's a new disease, we haven't transfused a lot."
Another concern that may arise is that every 200 or 400 milliliters of transfused plasma expands
the patient's blood stream. This will present no problem if the patient's kidneys work well, but if
they don't, the volume could increase fluid in their lungs, worsening the condition.
But will the therapy work for everyone, given that there are no compelling statistics showing
whether the plasma transfusion is efficient against the Covid-19?
"You have to try it, only experimenting can tell us yes or no,"
argued Sergey Netesov, a
leading virologist and member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
At any rate, trying experimental therapy is better than
"dying on the spot without any
medication."
Physicians on the front line urgently need trials to study the benefits of plasma treatment as new
drugs are being developed, Bailey agreed.
What you want to know is if this helps survival [by] 50 percent and something else
helps survival [by] 25 percent, you probably want to go with the one that's 50 percent.
Dr Charles Rupprecht of the Department of Biomedical Sciences at Ross University said "
there is
no magic bullet"
in the absence of peer-reviewed, large-scale, long-term, double-blinded studies
proving the benefits of plasma in Covid-19 treatment.
The scientist, who leads the rabies section at his institution, referred to that disease as an
example. Rabies immune globulin (RIG) – which also contains large amounts of antibodies from donated
blood – is
"one critical part of prevention after humans have been exposed to a rabid animal,"
but it's
"short-acting"
and is usually used in a healthy patient before
"illness onset."
Still, no specific coronavirus treatment has been proven to be effective, so doctors and patients
need
"the tincture of time,"
as there are always safety issues to consider in the use of
human blood products, he cautioned.
Even IF it helps, finding donors will be a problem
However, the hardest part here is finding and vetting donors, the number of which is appallingly
small, especially compared to more than one million coronavirus cases globally. Also, plasma intended
for Covid-19 patients must be free from other diseases, such as hepatitis or HIV/AIDS.
"As a matter of fact, up to 50 percent of donor blood is being rejected in most countries,"
Netesov revealed, citing the example of China – a pioneer in plasma treatment – where almost one-in-10
potential donors had hepatitis. Russia, for instance, has only a tiny number of recovered Covid-19
patients, and maybe only half of them could donate blood, limiting the pool to mere dozens, the
scientist acknowledged.
"The number of patients is still larger than the number of the recovered. As long as this
situation persists, we have nobody to take that plasma from,"
Kupryashov of the Bakulev Center
agreed.
Finding the right dosage of plasma is equally crucial under the circumstances, because doctors have
to know what concentration of antibodies is enough to help cope with the virus. In the long run,
however, manufacturers will usually process plasma, increasing the amount of antibodies and allowing
doctors to use smaller doses, Bailey said.
Health authorities around the world have high hopes for plasma treatment, rapidly rolling out
trials and authorizing it for compassionate use – allowing unapproved treatments to be prescribed if a
dying patient has no other options, and if the potential benefits outweigh the risks.
In the US, where the number of coronavirus cases has now exceeded 312,000, the Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) has spearheaded
"a new national effort"
to facilitate the use of plasma
treatment.
"There are some limited data to suggest that convalescent plasma and hyperimmune
globulin may have benefit in the Covid-19 illness,"
the agency states.
The Mayo Clinic will serve as the lead institution for the program, while the American Red Cross
will collect plasma and distribute it to hospitals throughout the country.
In the UK, coronavirus patients are about to receive the experimental treatment, with experts
calling on the NHS to urgently stockpile antibody-rich plasma for such needs. France is also set to
start trials for the promising therapy next Tuesday.
Russia, too, is catching up with the trend. The country's famed Sklifosovsky Institute of Emergency
Care will be the first to try infusing plasma in the coming days, local media have reported.
Additionally, the Vector Institute – a leading research center of virology and biotechnology – has
developed a test for measuring antibodies in those who have survived Covid-19. The institution has
already screened blood samples from 11 people who recovered from the virus, Deputy Prime Minister
Tatiana Golikova said.
Iran, recently a coronavirus hotspot, will also follow suit, as will Turkey, where the head of the
Red Crescent insists that it could become
"one of the world's most effective applications"
against the contagion.
For the time being, many other treatment options are being considered by the international
healthcare community, ranging from anti-malarial drugs to HIV medication. A range of Covid-19 vaccines
are also being developed, although they seem to be months – if not years – away from being
commissioned.
The most effective treatment recommended by the study, besides vaccines, are antivirals like
nucleoside analogs, which mirror the virus's genetic material in order to get incorporated into
it and stall its progress. Coronaviruses reportedly contain a "proofreading" enzyme that can
reject such antivirals, but there are exceptions to the rule.
Other strategies include blood plasma from patients who have recovered from the virus and
monoclonal antibodies, which are made through biotechnology to be clones of a parent cell.
However, the latter of those also presents the obstacle of being a long process.
In the study that two of us are reporting [ 1 ], the rates of current smoking remain below 5 %
even when main confounders for tobacco consumption, i.e. age and sex, in- or outpatient
status, were considered.
Compared to the French general population, the Covid-19 population exhibited a
significantly weaker current daily smoker rate by 80.3 % for outpatients and by 75.4 % for
inpatients.
Thus, current smoking status appears to be a protective factor against the infection by
SARS-CoV-2.
Nicotine is known to influence the process that regulates the number of ACE2 receptors on
the cell surface. Current smokers do have less ACE2 receptors than non smokers. SARS-CoV-2
bonds to that receptor to enter a cell.
The study was led by Professor Jean-Pierre Changeux who is quite
famous for his discovery of that general regulation process and other findings. He now plans
to use nicotine patches on Covid-19 patients to see if it can help in current cases.
Well
if nicotine is the magic protector against covid, then wearing a nicotine patch or chewing
nicorette gum will work too I guess. No need to inhale toxic fumes and tar our lungs.
The study was led by Professor Jean-Pierre Changeux who is quite famous for his discovery
of that general regulation process and other findings. He now plans to use nicotine patches
on Covid-19 patients to see if it can help in current cases.
Changeaux is indeed recognized as a pioneer in the field of receptor biochemistry. The
idea to use nicotine patches seems sensible in light of the fact that this drug produces
anti-inflammatory effects via alpha7-nicotinic receptors.
I think readers of MoA might be interested to know that the April 22 2020 edition of the NY
Post carried a story mirroring what B has n written in his April 25 2020 post on the use of
nicotine patches as a possible counter to the COVID-19 virus infection.
There is also an earlier story in the NY Post dated April 15 2020 about 82-year old
British artist David Hockney who had written a letter to the UK Daily Mail claiming that
smokers like himself, seemed to be less likely to get the COVID-19 infection. Hockney lives
in Normandy France.
The Post is also reporting that the French government is also limiting the sales of
nicotine gum and patches, to prevent runs on these items. I picked this up from the April 25
2020 Drudge Report. Make of it what you wish.
Just great, I quit smoking four weeks ago because of coronavirus, and because it has
become ridiculously expensive, now what do I do?
It's too early to know if nicotine will be a useful therapeutic to treat COVID-19
patients, and it seems unlikely that it would have a prophylactic effect against infection .
Not a good reason to resume smoking (sorry) but going to nicotine patches or vaping would be
relatively harmless.
The smoking numbers suffer from an age bias. Those most likely to be in icu and die are
elderly over 65 years of age. Over 65's have a lower smoking rate (9%) than average (15%).
Part of that is smokers die earlier and another part is probably financial/health related.
Cytokine storm is more common in elderly because they have more complement molecules due
to chronic inflammation from the aging process. Complement are molecules of the innate immune
system which when can activated produce cytokines activating more immune
molecules/cells.
The smoking numbers suffer from an age bias. Those most likely to be in icu and die are
elderly over 65 years of age. Over 65's have a lower smoking rate (9%) than average (15%).
Part of that is smokers die earlier and another part is probably financial/health related.
Cytokine storm is more common in elderly because they have more complement molecules due
to chronic inflammation from the aging process. Complement are molecules of the innate immune
system which when can activated produce cytokines activating more immune
molecules/cells.
Just great, I quit smoking four weeks ago because of coronavirus, and because it has
become ridiculously expensive, now what do I do?
Posted by: Gregory Purcell | Apr 25 2020 20:30 utc | 16
Stay off the smokes and flaunt some smug.
The chart b has reproduced above shows that healthy non-smokers with no pre-existing
health conditions handle a C-virus infection with far more aplomb than current and
ex-smokers.
Write a How To Become an Ex-smoker booklet and relate your own 'journey' chapter &
verse; then flog it on eBay for $x-00 per copy. There'll be a big market from desperate
unemployed smokers hoping to ease the pain of quitting...
Interesting result regarding smokers, though as yet there is no evidence that nicotine is the
causative agent in conferring resistance to Covid19.
as an ex-smoker turned vaper, I would be interested to know if vapers are equally
protected.
It should be noted that tobacco smoke contains other substances as well as nicotine and for
sure vaping is not the same physiologically as smoking and I'm not just talking about the
reduced risk of smoking related disease.
IIRC the changes in nerve receptors take several years to occur, both at the beginning of
nicotine addiction and also at the end (which is why ex-smokers have such a hard time after
stopping), so a simple application of a nicotine patch may not produce any useful effect in a
non-smoker.
as an ex-smoker turned vaper, I would be interested to know if vapers are equally
protected.
I would expect so. The benefit of nicotine presumably comes from its ability to reduce the
synthesis and release of pro-inflammatory cytokines which cause "cytokine storms" in the
lungs of severely infected individuals. Again, there is no reason to expect that nicotine
would prevent infections from occurring, rather it would mitigate some of the more deadly
symptoms.
Some caution is indicated re the perceived negative correlation with smoking: 1. This is not
an actual observational study but extrapolated from adjusted population rates -- the
proportion of active smokers in the patient population was not sufficient by itself to draw
conclusions with decent power. Then, there seems to be little difference between the ICU
needed for former smokers and the patients with cardiovascular disease, diabetes or CRF.
Finally, the in-vitro work quoted in the paper and shown here as "confirming" is certainly
not confirming (or invalidating) any clinical data (which is introduced there as a clinical
to the clinical paper.)
On the whole, interesting observation but would need a study with effective observation of
sufficient numbers of smokers.
I'd tend to see this as suggesting that there may be something in persons who continue to
smoke, not former smokers. And there lies the rub: practically all we know about smoking
continues, generally lifelong, after cessation, except this phenomenon if verified. It's true
that lung disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer (and cancer therapy), renal failure and the
myriad other chronic conditions of the ex-smokers would be very likely to cancel any of the
advantage seen in the active smokers. Essentially then, looks like continuing to smoke
cancels all such problems in the active smoking patients (if, that is, the observation is
credibly confirmed.)
If it's smoking who alters ACE2, then it's definitely not nicotine in the bloodstream that
will do the trick, it's smoking dirty nasty shit that fills your lungs that reduces ACE2
receptors. I expect nicotine patches to be fully useless - though I'll be glad to be provent
wrong.
As for household contamination, I had read a month ago that the Chinese themselves were
reporting that 3/4 of contaminations in Wuhan occurred at home between family members, so
this not a big surprise.
On the other hand, a very recent report seems to show that UV are very effective at
destroying the virus and indeed outdoor contamination is limited, because the virus won't
last long in a sunny place. In a cold grey winterscape, it might be a bit different
though.
Now, there are also more reports of non-pulmonary deaths, people having strokes, heart
attacks, brain damages and the like because the virus wrecks havoc in blood vessels and clogs
them. That's very worrying. The only thing I'm wondering, since these reports are mostly
American ones, is what's the real condition of those victims. To put it simply: it's known
that obesity is a massive pre-condition with the coronavirus and greatly increases the risk.
Are these cardio-vascular deaths also linked to people's obesity, or is any normal or fit
person at risk as well?
If 99% of cases of infection happen in closed spaces and/or in open spaces with very close
and long contact (stadiums, parties, festivals, concenrts, atc) is it really wise to limit
activities in which social distancing can be maintained, such as jogging, fishing, biking,
etc
Also the policy on mitigation (complete suppression is impossible now) should vary by
locality. What is good for NYC is idiotic for rural Pennsylvania.
As the jogger struggled with police, screaming for help, she was filmed by residents who had
absolutely zero sympathy for her plight. 'What's not fair is that you go out running, you
bloody idiot!', shouted the woman apparently filming the encounter."
"... As of Thursday, 23 employees at the 4,000-employee VA hospital, had tested positive, according to an update the hospital director emailed to employees. Another 45 employees are home awaiting test results. The hospital declined to say how many of the employees who are positive or are awaiting results are nurses, or name which parts of the hospital they work in. ..."
"... Three VA nurses said they were given N95 respirators for several days early in the crisis in March, but after that they were given surgical masks, which provide less protection from the coronavirus. Another nurse reported wearing only a surgical mask the entire time caring for coronavirus patients. The nurses, who work in a unit that treats COVID-19 positive patients or patients awaiting test results who are suspected to be positive, spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to news media and their job security could be at risk if they spoke publicly. ..."
"... The hospital had 73 confirmed coronavirus cases among patients as of Friday, and four inpatient deaths. "Currently every health care system is taking steps to conserve PPE. VA is no different," Hodge wrote in a series of responses by email to questions. Hodge also said that the hospital is issuing surgical masks to all staff who work in non-COVID-19 units. ..."
"... "Those staff are provided one surgical mask weekly to assist in protecting high-risk patients who are asymptomatic," he wrote. ..."
"... Since the number of COVID-19 tests are limited nationwide, there is no COVID-19 testing capability at our CBOC locations. Please call your provider to determine whether you would be a candidate for testing. If so, then you may proceed to the Hunter Holmes McGuire VA Medical Center in Richmond, Virginia where Monday – Friday, 8:30 a.m. – 1:00 p.m., a Drive-Thru Clinic is available for screening and testing (if you need it); you will be triaged according to your symptoms. Also, Monday – Friday, 8:00 a.m. – 4:00 p.m., you may be directed to be seen in the medical center's High Consequence Infections (HCI) Clinic. Last, depending on your symptoms, you may go to the hospital's Emergency Department or to an Urgent Care Center or Emergency Department in your area. ..."
"... Much of the federal stockpile of PPE sent to the states had passed their expire dates, 2010 for some, and was either useless or had to be repaired. I blame the failure on the person, or persons, charged with monitoring the wharehoused stockpiles. The president only knows what he's told. He can't micromanage the nation. He needs Jack Webb directing him to stick with the facts. ..."
"... I read somewhere the V.A. ordered the masks but F.E.M.A expropriated them on the directions of Jared Kushner, who will later decide who receives the masks...something about the National Emergency Stockpile...what a mess. ..."
Colonel Lang sent me an eye opening link last night concerning the Hunter Holmes McGuire VA
hospital in Richmond. Here are some excerpts from the Richmond Times-Dispatch article.
-- -- -- --
As of Thursday, 23 employees at the 4,000-employee VA hospital, had tested positive,
according to an update the hospital director emailed to employees. Another 45 employees are
home awaiting test results. The hospital declined to say how many of the employees who are
positive or are awaiting results are nurses, or name which parts of the hospital they work
in.
Three VA nurses said they were given N95 respirators for several days early in the
crisis in March, but after that they were given surgical masks, which provide less protection
from the coronavirus. Another nurse reported wearing only a surgical mask the entire time
caring for coronavirus patients. The nurses, who work in a unit that treats COVID-19 positive
patients or patients awaiting test results who are suspected to be positive, spoke on condition
of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to news media and their job security
could be at risk if they spoke publicly.
The hospital had 73 confirmed coronavirus cases among patients as of Friday, and four
inpatient deaths. "Currently every health care system is taking steps to conserve PPE. VA is no
different," Hodge wrote in a series of responses by email to questions. Hodge also said that
the hospital is issuing surgical masks to all staff who work in non-COVID-19 units."Those staff are provided one surgical mask weekly to assist in protecting high-risk
patients who are asymptomatic," he wrote. (Richmond Times-Dispatch)
-- -- --
I'm not surprised by the numbers. Richmond, itself, is a virus hot spot although that is
mostly due to several deadly assisted living/nursing home outbreaks. What shocks me is the PPE
situation. The fact that nurses have to treat known Covid-19 patients with hospital masks
rather than the N95 respirators is only moderately better than third world conditions in my
view. Hospital masks offer the wearer no protection against the aerosolized virus. If the
patients were wearing those masks, it would be more helpful than the nurses wearing them.
Here's a tip. If you can still smell odors like onions or bacon while wearing the mask, the
aerosolized virus can get into your lungs. Hospital masks and other improvised masks protect
those around the wearer, not the mask wearer. The concept behind the universal wearing of such
masks is mutual protection. For any of you who spent time in the infantry, it's the same
concept behind the DePuy fighting positions where you are not defending yourself. You are
forming interlocking fields of fire to protect your comrades to the left and right of you.
Protecting those around you actually provides the best protection for all of you. We wear masks
in grocery stores and other such places to protect the entire community, not just our own sorry
asses.
But back to the situation at McGuire. In the early days of the pandemic in America, the
hospital instituted a screening program at the hospital entrances consisting of temperature and
health interview. We were told to expect delays and to be given a mask for wear in the
hospital. Not long after that, we were called to reschedule our appointments to May or beyond.
By mid-April, this was the COVID-19 testing situation.
Since the number of COVID-19 tests are limited nationwide, there is no COVID-19
testing capability at our CBOC locations. Please call your provider to determine whether you
would be a candidate for testing. If so, then you may proceed to the Hunter Holmes McGuire VA
Medical Center in Richmond, Virginia where Monday – Friday, 8:30 a.m. – 1:00
p.m., a Drive-Thru Clinic is available for screening and testing (if you need it); you will
be triaged according to your symptoms. Also, Monday – Friday, 8:00 a.m. – 4:00
p.m., you may be directed to be seen in the medical center's High Consequence Infections
(HCI) Clinic. Last, depending on your symptoms, you may go to the hospital's Emergency
Department or to an Urgent Care Center or Emergency Department in your area.
McGuire seems to have had all its ducks in a row. It's what I expect. This VA medical center
is well run. The professionalism, pride and morale among the staff is astoundingly high. It
shows among us broke down old vets who show up for care. We are proud of McGuire. That this
fine facility is now forced to ration out PPE to its staff is a travesty. The VA dropped the
ball. The federal government dropped the ball for several administrations. PPE should have been
stockpiled at all levels and those stockpiles should have been replenished by a push logistics
system.
That's the long term screw up. In the more immediate term, the federal government should
have been acquiring that PPE and forcing industry to massively produce supplies back in
January. Trump should have invoked and used the Defense Production Act robustly in January
rather than waiting until March and April to weakly wield that executive authority. Every
hospital and every first responder should have had all the PPE needed. Every household could
have been sent a dozen disposable masks with a note from President Trump telling us to keep
these in case we need them. What a galvanizing message that would have sent across the nation.
Even if Covid-19 proved to be a non-problem, it would have been a message of Churchillian
defiance in the face of a potential threat. A missed opportunity for both the American people
and Trump.
"The proning and the high-flow nasal cannulas combined have brought patient oxygen levels
from around 40% to 80% and 90%, so it's been fascinating and wonderful to see," Spiegel
said."
It isn't just the VA, hospitals all over the country are short of PPE. And that is one of the
problems with opening up the country too soon. Unprotected staff in suddenly flooded
hospitals become ill themselves risking the viability of local health systems.
I read a while back that the key supply chain issue with N-95 masks is that their
essential core material is a synthetic spun fiber that we are completely reliant on China for
sourcing. In addition. the machines that make this fiber are complex, quite expensive and
there is no capability to quickly and significantly ramp up their production. Further they
are challenging to set up and operate.
And for perspective, of the 200 million masks China currently makes a day, only 600,000
are N95 standard masks, used by medical personnel,
So yet another "essential supply chain" item for a critical health system need that simply
can't be ramped up out of this air.
Hopefully some one in the Federal system is looking for all similar needs and working on a
plan to facilitate onshore manufacturing.
I see this as a long term "lack of US preparedness" problem vs. something that could have
been easily addressed if the administration had moved a couple on months earlier..
We have the same problems here in the UK. With people, mainly it seems like in the MSM,
blaming the Government's leadership for the supply issues.
Ignoring totally the management of our respective national health organizations who knew,
at the latest in mid January, that there was probably a nasty contagious problem coming down
the tracks, that would, based on already clear Chinese actions, need more PPE than was on
their shelves.
Bear in mind that, in the UK at least, hundreds of these NHS bureaucrats earn twice what a
Government minister earns and a few twice the PM's salary. In both nations they have failed
their people dismally, seemingly like rabbits trapped in the headlights. None will be
punished of course for failure, they are just pleased that the Government steps up and takes
the blame.
Then we have the academics and think tank personnel. All accepted as impartial and
offering honest opinions based on state of the art models. Again the Governments take what
they are offered as gospel and acts on it. Only to discover that the models are more of the
garbage in garbage out variety, not fit for purpose. Then we find how much funding the
impartial academics are receiving from potentially very interested parties, as there are $Bs
at stake. In the UK there was a Pandemic 2016 exercise to check things out. Result everything
in NHS under control. In the real world under four years later, a shambles. Did you have a
similar last autumn?
The real heroes and heroines in this saga are the doctors, nurses and their support and
ancillary staff who are actually at the sharp end. Many working in appallingly unsafe
conditions. Hats off to them.
For 200 plus years our hospitals utilized laundries to cleanse their medical protection gear
(PPE) until the advent of synthetic PPE. The present generation is taught to utilize the N95
mask and other gear once and then trash it. This was derived as a manner in reducing Sepsis
and MRSA in hospitals and an effective one though those diseases are still present.
Our hearts went out to these young medical personnel without the plastic masks and gear as
they were working outside of what they were taught and they were much more susceptible to the
Covid-19.
Now we all saw every Chinaman walking around Wuhan with a N-95 mask in January and
unfortunately those were our masks that were re-routed to the Chinese people. Hopefully we
have now learned a very hard lesson that Just in Time Inventory does not work for medical
diseases or viruses and that the USA needs to manufacture all PPE and medicine in the USA
amongst other things.
Regarding the political implications I can only say that the guy in the hot seat made things
happen when the chips were down something his predecessors nor his competitor had/have the
ability to do in a timely manner. Coercion worked.
Much of the federal stockpile of PPE sent to the states had passed their expire dates, 2010
for some, and was either useless or had to be repaired. I blame the failure on the person, or
persons, charged with monitoring the wharehoused stockpiles. The president only knows what
he's told. He can't micromanage the nation. He needs Jack Webb directing him to stick with
the facts.
We have two groups of psychopaths vying for political power.
I read somewhere the V.A. ordered the masks but F.E.M.A expropriated them on the directions of Jared Kushner, who will
later decide who receives the masks...something about the National Emergency Stockpile...what a mess.
This was based on the virus' affinity for the ACE2 receptor in the lungs. It is also
thought to have a higher prevalence in heavy smokers. Iran and Italy are countries where
people smoke heavily. In Iran smoking related disease accounts for about 20% of fatalities in
males.
I believe that it is lecithin (soy, fish) that East-Asians [eat] protect from hypertension.
As a heavy smoker I got a "smoker-leg" some years ago. I got successfully rid of it with
lecithin, because I read that lecithin dissolves 'bad fats'. These 'bad fats' can't be put
into the liver, because unlike 'good fats' they would destroy the liver. And thus our blood
puts the 'bad fats' into the walls of our arteries, which then swell like balloons. Lecithin
dissolves/cracks these 'bad fats' so that they now can be eliminated by the liver.
As not only smoking produces 'bad fats' (too long molecules?) lecithin in general will
make the blood vessels fit again and by this certainly lower blood-pressure.
I know for sure that hospitals across the country are getting a significant bailout.
However, the bailout has a definite "no strings attached" aspect to it. Which may explain the
rather wide variation in how hospitals have decided how to use this money.
For instance, my hospital decided to use its bailout money to give thousands of its
employees so-called "COVID" pay so that they can continue to get paid despite not working at
all. Needless to say, there is indeed a very good thing about this and other similar forms of
medical Keynesianism: it keeps the local unemployment rate regarding hospital workers much
lower than it would otherwise be.
OTOH, a similar nonprofit hospital just to the north of me, both in terms size and
function, as well as having an equally significant reduction in patient admissions due to
COVID-19, has elected NOT to use any of its bailout money to keep its employees employed.
That hospital is Huntsville Hospital. It has instead decided to furlough and even lay-off
many of its employees.
As to how Huntsville Hospital is using its bailout money, I can't say for sure. Nor can
anybody else, for that matters, due to its overall lack of spending transparency, which is
very common among hospitals in general, BTW. Despite that, my guess would be that Huntsville
Hospital is using its bailout money to pay for capital improvements. There's probably a good
side to this as well: it keeps the local unemployment rate regarding non-hospital workers
much lower than it would otherwise be. Therefore, it too can be described as medical
Keynesianism, though it is a more indirect and somewhat weaker form of it since hospital
workers don't benefit from it.
Thomas Jefferson University Hospitals, which operates 14 medical centers in Philadelphia and
NYU Langone in New York City, found that 12 of their patients treated for large blood blockages
in their brains during a three-week period had the virus. Forty percent were under 50, and had
few or no risk factors. Their paper is under review by a medical journal, said Pascal Jabbour,
a neurosurgeon at Thomas Jefferson.
Jabbour and his co-author Eytan Raz, an assistant professor of neuroradiology at NYU
Langone, said that strokes in covid-19 patients challenge conventionally thinking. "We are used
to thinking of 60 as a young patient when it comes to large vessel occlusions," Raz said of the
deadliest strokes. "We have never seen so many in their 50s, 40s and late 30s."
Raz wondered whether they are seeing more young patients because they are more resistant
than the elderly to the respiratory distress caused by covid-19: "So they survive the lung
side, and in time develop other issues."
Jabbour said many of the cases he's treated have unusual characteristics. Brain clots
usually appear in the arteries, which carry blood away from the heart, but in covid-19
patients, he's also seeing them in the veins, which carry blood in the opposite direction and
are trickier to treat. Some patients are also developing more than one large clot in their
heads, which is highly unusual.
"We'll be treating a blood vessel and it will go fine, but then the patient will have a
major stroke" due to a clot in another part of the brain, he said.
... ... ...
In a letter to be published in the New England Journal of Medicine next week, the Mount
Sinai team details five case studies of young patients who had strokes at home from March 23 to
Apr. 7. They make for difficult reading: The victims are age 33, 37, 39, 44, and 49, and were
all home when they began to experience sudden symptoms, including slurred speech, confusion,
drooping on one side of the face and feeling dead in one arm.
The
novel
coronavirus
mainly attacks the lungs. But doctors have been increasingly reporting cases of another battlefield raging
within the body: the heart.
More than 1 in 5 patients develop heart damage as a result of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, one small study published March 27 in
the journal
JAMA
Cardiology
suggested. While some of these patients have a history of heart conditions, others do not. So what's going
on?
Cardiologists say several scenarios could be unfolding: The heart may struggle to pump blood in the absence of enough oxygen;
the virus may directly invade heart cells; or the body, in its attempt to eradicate the virus, may mobilize a storm of
immune
cells
that attack the heart.
https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.382.1_en.html#goog_562409015
PLAY SOUND
"We know that this is not the only virus that affects the heart," said Dr. Mohammad Madjid, an assistant professor at McGovern
Medical School at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHealth). The risk of developing heart attacks,
for example, is thought to increase about sixfold when a person is infected with the flu virus, according to a study published
in 2018 in the
New
England Journal of Medicine
.
What's more, during most influenza epidemics, more patients die from heart complications than from
pneumonia
,
according to a review published March 27 in the journal
JAMA
Cardiology
. Viral infections can disrupt blood flow to the heart, cause irregular heartbeats and heart failure,
according to the review.
So while it doesn't "come as a surprise," that novel coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2 can lead to heart damage, it may be
occurring more frequently in these patients than it does in people infected with other viruses, Madjid, the lead author of the
review, told Live Science.
"We're seeing cases of people who don't have an underlying
heart
disease
," who are getting heart damage, said Dr. Erin Michos, the associate director of preventive cardiology at Johns
Hopkins School of Medicine. Heart damage isn't typical in mild cases of COVID-19, and tends to occur more often in patients
who have severe symptoms and are hospitalized, she said.
Though the virus predominantly affects the lungs, it is circulating in the bloodstream; that means the virus could directly
invade and attack other organs, including the heart, Michos told Live Science.
Both heart cells and lung cells are covered with surface proteins known as angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) -- these
molecules serve as "doorways" for the virus to enter cells. But this enzyme is a "double-edged sword," she said. On one hand,
the
ACE2
molecule
acts as a gateway for the virus to enter the cell and replicate, but on the other hand, it normally serves a "protective"
function, Michos said.
When tissues in the body are damaged -- either by an invading virus such as SARS-CoV-2 or by other means, the body's natural
healing response involves releasing inflammatory molecules, such as small proteins called cytokines, into the bloodstream. But
paradoxically, too much inflammation can actually make things worse. The ACE2 enzyme acts as an anti-inflammatory, keeping
immune cells from inflicting more damage on the body's own cells.
But when the virus latches onto ACE2 proteins, these proteins get knocked out of commission, possibly reducing the
anti-inflammatory protection that they give. So the virus may be acting as a double-whammy by damaging cells directly and
preventing the body from protecting tissues from inflammatory damage.
"If the heart muscle is inflamed and damaged by the virus, the heart can't function," she said.
The novel coronavirus might also indirectly damage the heart. In this scenario, the patient's immune system winds up "going
haywire," Michos said. This scenario has played out in some really sick patients who have highly elevated inflammatory markers
-- or proteins that signal high levels of inflammation in the body.
This is called a "cytokine storm," Michos said. Cytokine storms damage organs throughout the body, including the heart and
liver, she added. It's not clear why some people have such an elevated response compared with others, but some people could be
genetically prone to it, she added.
And then you have patients who have underlying heart disease who are at higher risk of developing severe symptoms of COVID-19
-- and higher risk of mortality. "You can imagine, if their heart already has difficulty working they don't have the capacity
to meet this challenge" of not having enough oxygen because their lungs aren't working as well.
So COVID-19 can "exacerbate" underlying heart disease, Michos said. A new study, published April 3 in the journal
Circulation
,
described four cases of heart damage among COVID-19 patients in New York, some with underlying conditions. (Michos is on the
editorial board for the journal Circulation.)
Treatments and complications
Cardiologists identify heart damage using a blood test for a protein called troponin. When heart cells are injured, they leak
troponin into the bloodstream. But "it's sometimes not that easy," to figure out what kind of heart damage a patient is
having, Michos said.
"We are really seeing different cardiac involvement," Michos said. So it matters "what's causing the heart damage because you
would treat it differently."
For example, if the virus is directly invading the heart, the patient may need antiviral medications. If instead the immune
system is causing heart damage, the patient might need immunosuppressants. Right now, no direct treatments target COVID-19,
and most of the treatment being used currently involves supportive care such as providing more oxygen.
What's more, people who have
high
blood pressure
or other underlying heart conditions commonly take ACE inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers
(ARBs) -- medications that widen blood vessels, therefore increasing the amount of blood the heart pumps and lowering blood
pressure.
Cardiologists are hotly debating whether people should stop or start taking those medications if they're at high risk for
COVID-19. (One paper suggested the drugs could be harmful, while some clinical trials are assessing the use of ARBs to reduce
the severity of COVID-19,
Live
Science previously reported
.)
It's really hard to tease out whether having more ACE2 is helpful or harmful, as these proteins are how the virus enters the
cells, but also known to protect the cells against injury, Michos said.
The current consensus is that if patients are already taking these medications, they should stay on them, she said. "Patients
taking ACE-[inhibitors] and ARBs who contract COVID-19 should continue treatment, unless otherwise advised by their
physician,"
according
to a statement
from the American Heart Association, the Heart Failure Society of America and the American College of
Cardiology.
Experts from Australia and New Zealand similarly said they strongly recommend patients with hypertension, heart failure and
cardiovascular disease who are already on these medications keep using them, according to a study preprint published on April
3 in
The
Medical Journal of Australia
.
Complicating matters, certain drugs that are currently under investigation for treating COVID-19, including
hydroxychloroquine -- the drug that President Trump has said is a game-changer -- could cause heart damage, those experts said.
Now, the goal is to figure out if there's a genetic or biochemical reason some people are more prone to heart damage from
COVID-19 -- and to figure out what drugs work best "to protect the heart from injury," Michos said.
About
31 million people are today uninsured in America and 14 states have not even expanded
Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. The healthcare system is seemingly structured in
defiance of the people it should serve, functioning as yet another way to maximize profits at
the expense of millions.
In this coronavirus moment, many more Americans are finally awakening to the bitter
consequences, the damage, wrought when even a single person does not have access to the
resources he or she needs to live decently or, for that matter, survive.
With the spread of a pandemic, the cost to a nation that often treats collective care as, at
best, an afterthought should become apparent. After all, more than
9,000 medical workers, many not adequately protected from the disease, have already
contracted it.
Today, more than 38 million people
officially live below the federal poverty line and, in truth, that figure should have shocked
the nation into action before the coronavirus even arrived here. No such luck and here's the
real story anyway: the official measure of poverty,
developed in 1964, doesn't even take into account household expenses like health care, child
care, housing, and transportation, not to speak of other costs that have burgeoned in recent
decades. The world has undergone profound economic transformations over the last 66 years and
yet this out-of-date measure, based on three times a family's food budget, continues to shape
policymaking at every level of government as well as the contours of the American political and
moral imagination.
...the 53
percent of every federal discretionary dollar that goes to
the Pentagon , the trillions of dollars that have been
squandered in this country's never-ending war on terror, not to speak of the unprecedented
financial gains the wealthiest have made (even in the midst of the current crisis). Of
course, this economic order becomes a genuine moral scandal the moment attention is focused on
the
three billionaires who possess more wealth than the bottom half of society.
Since the government began transferring wealth from the poor to the very rich under the
guise of "trickle-down" (but actually gusher-up) economics, key public institutions,
labor unions , and
the electoral process have been under attack. The healthcare system has been further
privatized, public housing has been demolished, public water and sanitation systems have been
held hostage by emergency managers, and the
social safety net has been eviscerated.
In these same years, core government functions have been turned over to the private sector
and the free market. The result: levels of poverty and inequality in this country now
outmatch the Gilded Age . All of this, in turn, laid the groundwork for the rapid spread of
death and disease via the Covid-19 pandemic and its disproportionate impact on poor people and
people of color.
When the coronavirus first became a national emergency, the Fed materialized
$1.5 trillion in loans to Wall Street, a form of
corporate welfare that may never be paid back. In the following weeks, the Fed and a
congressional bipartisan stimulus package funneled trillions more in bailouts to the largest
corporations. Meanwhile, tens of millions of Americans were left out of that
CARES Act : 48 percent of the work force did not receive paid sick leave; 27 million
uninsured people and 10 percent of the insured who couldn't even afford a doctor's visit have
no guarantee of free or reasonably priced medical treatment; 11 million undocumented immigrants
and their 5 million children will receive no emergency provisions; 2.3 million of the
incarcerated have been left in the petri dish of prison; 3 million Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program recipients saw no increase in their benefits; and homeless assistance funds
were targeted at only about 500,000 people, although eight to 11 million are homeless or
housing insecure. Such omissions are guaranteed to prove debilitating, even potentially lethal,
for many. They also represent cracks in a dam ready to break in a nation without a guaranteed
living wage or universal healthcare as debt mounts, wages stagnate, and the pressures of
ecological devastation and climate change intensify.
... ... ...
Across the Black Belt of the southern states, the poor and black are dying from the
coronavirus at an
alarming rate . In many of those states, wages are tied to industries that rely on now
interrupted regular household spending. They also have among the least resources and the most
vehement anti-union and wage-suppression laws. That, in turn, leaves so many Americans all that
more vulnerable to the Covid-19 crisis, the end of which is nowhere in sight. Chalk this up,
among other things, to decades of divestment in public institutions and the entrenchment of
extremist agendas in state legislatures. The Black Belt accounts for nine of the 14 states that
have not expanded Medicaid and for 60
percent of all rural hospital closures.
Nor are these the only places now feeling the consequences of hospitals being bought up or
closed for private profit. In Philadelphia, for instance, Hahnemann Hospital, which had served
that city's poorest patients for
more than 170 years , was recently bought and
closed by a real-estate speculator who then attempted to extract a million dollars a month
from the local government to reopen it. Now, as the coronavirus ravages Philadelphia,
Hahnemann's beds sit empty, reminiscent of the notorious
shuttering of New Orleans' Charity Hospital in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
"... A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported. ..."
"... The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it's the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday. The study was posted on an online site for researchers and has been submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine, but has not been reviewed by other scientists. Grants from the National Institutes of Health and the University of Virginia paid for the work. ..."
"... Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11. About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too, but the difference between that group and usual care was not considered large enough to rule out other factors that could have affected survival. Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in the need for a breathing machine, either. ..."
"... Researchers did not track side effects, but noted hints that hydroxychloroquine might have damaged other organs. The drug has long been known to have potentially serious side effects, including altering the heartbeat in a way that could lead to sudden death. ..."
"... Earlier this month, scientists in Brazil stopped part of a hydroxychloroquine study after heart rhythm problems developed in one-quarter of people given the higher of two doses being tested. ..."
"... The interesting news is that ventilators are not required in all cases and indeed my do more harm for some. BoJo was only on a cpap. The harm mechanism may be impaired hemoglobin ..."
A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus
showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more
deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers
reported.
The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it's the
largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for
COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday. The study was posted on an
online site for researchers and has been submitted to the New England Journal of Medicine, but
has not been reviewed by other scientists. Grants from the National Institutes of Health and
the University of Virginia paid for the work.
Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed
coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were
discharged by April 11. About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died,
versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus
azithromycin died too, but the difference between that group and usual care was not considered
large enough to rule out other factors that could have affected survival. Hydroxychloroquine
made no difference in the need for a breathing machine, either.
Researchers did not track side effects, but noted hints that hydroxychloroquine might
have damaged other organs. The drug has long been known to have potentially serious side
effects, including altering the heartbeat in a way that could lead to sudden death.
Earlier this month, scientists in Brazil stopped part of a hydroxychloroquine study after heart
rhythm problems developed in one-quarter of people given the higher of two doses being
tested. (AP News)
-- -- -- --
This was not a rigorously designed experiment and from what I've seen, VA patients almost
inevitably have multiple heath problems before they walk into the clinic or VA hospital. We're
a pretty banged up, broken down lot. However, the VA is skilled at doing this kind of
evaluation of their vast patient population. Through their Million Veteran Program, they are
conducting myriad studies involving genetic samples and health records. The results of this VA
study is sobering and seems to help answer Trump's question of what do you have to lose.
In response to this study and several prematurely ended studies, Fauci's "National Institute
of Allergy and Infectious Diseases recommends against doctors using a
combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for the treatment of COVID-19 patients
because of potential toxicities.
Maybe those with lupus and rheumatoid arthritis will have an easier time getting their
medication. We have to do something with our stockpiled 29 million pills. Still, more studies
need to be done. Perhaps an effective treatment involving hydroxychloroquine will be developed
when we understand Covid-19 better. We're still learning of the full range of damage this virus
is capable of inflicting. Maybe it will be an effective prophylactic, not a magic shield or
miracle potion, but a helpful prophylactic. There's no reason to give up on this or any other
proposed treatment or cure.
More studies, for sure. I always find it interesting other your take on VA matters...thank
you for sharing your perspective to those of us without experience with the VA.
To be clear, the Institue guidance recommends agains the combination of HCQ and AZ. It makes
to recommendation for or against HCQ by itself. These recommendations are only fo
hospitalized pts. There are no recommendations for or against drugs for prophylaxis.
In our own internal studies we found higher rates of arrhythmias on HCQ and AZ, and found
more problems related to AZ. We have stopped that. HCQ is no longer part of our standard
protocol but docs may order it if they choose.
The brazil study was of the Chloroquine diphosphate which has greater side effects than of
the hydroxy form. The big trial is the one in NY state. Those results are not yet in.
The interesting news is that ventilators are not required in all cases and indeed my
do more harm for some. BoJo was only on a cpap. The harm mechanism may be impaired
hemoglobin . These medcram youtubes linked below are topnotch!
Thank you for your thoughtful post TTG. It may still be that the drug has a useful effect. I
know Fauci is infuriating a lot of people, but he is right: a double blind placebo controlled
trial is the only way to really know.
Off topic, but when my wife had breast cancer she took part in such a trial of a new drug.
That involved extra free visits to hospital for testing. We guessed she was given the drug
afterwards because her oncologist and surgeon surprisingly found that her lymph nodes had
been scoured clean of the cancer. It's now about four years of remission. The new drug is
apparently going to be the new standard for treatment of that type of cancer.
I am surprised that "cloroquine phosphate", the name under which I know the drug, is now
suddenly supposed to have serious side effects. When I was stationed in Egypt for one year
with my family back in 1978, we all took cloroquine, as I remember it, once a week.
In my country, Denmark, drug regulation is pretty strict, so we assumed cloroquine was safe.
Still, I went to ask my doctor when I had another one-year stationing to the Middle East
coming up five years later. After looking at the guidelines, my doctor told me that
cloroquine had been used for years without any side effects, and that the only side effects
found after long trials on rabbits were some sort of residue settling in their eyes, though
with no adverse effect on their eyesight.
Lars Moeller-Rasmussen
This is not a controlled study. It is an analysis of medical records. It stands to reason
that there were more fatalities amongst those who were given the drug, because it was
desperation hour, so they therefore got the drug. The French guy says you have to use the
drug early, not as a Hail Mary pass when the virus has done its work and left and all that
remains in the pneumonia.
Oh the end-zone celebration on Morning Joe about this study! I guess you don't need a
double blind six month controlled trial to have absolute metaphysical certainty after all.
People who were given hydroxycloriquine died, said Mika when she spiked the football.
From the CDC website right now: CDC information for travelers who want to avoid malaria:
CLOROQUINE
Drug Reasons that might make you consider using this drug Reasons that might make you avoid
using this drug
Chloroquine
Adults: 300 mg base (500 mg salt), once/week.
Children: 5 mg/kg base (8.3 mg/kg salt) (maximum is adult dose), once/week. Begin 1-2
weeks before travel, once/week during travel, and for 4 weeks after leaving.
Some people would rather take medicine weekly
Good choice for long trips because it is taken only weekly
Some people are already taking hydroxychloroquine chronically for rheumatologic
conditions. In those instances, they may not have to take an additional medicine
Can be used in all trimesters of pregnancy
Cannot be used in areas with chloroquine or mefloquine resistance
May exacerbate psoriasis
Some people would rather not take a weekly medication
For trips of short duration, some people would rather not take medication for 4 weeks after
travel
Not a good choice for last-minute travelers because drug needs to be started 1-2 weeks
prior to travel
The quote cirsium provided above from Didier Raoult is worth repeating with emphasis IMO:
"The HCQ-AZ combination, when started immediately after diagnosis , is a safe and
efficient treatment for COVID-19..". The price of treatment only beginning when sufferers are
bad enough to be hospitalized seems to be a one to two orders of magnitude increase in
mortality rate.
Test, trace contacts & quarantine like the South Koreans and prescribe Didier's magic
elixir to all positives right away. If this isn't accepted medical practice, then change the
accepted medical practice.
"Details of exactly how the tracking will work have not been released -- but, per the
BBC, the location data of people's mobile devices will be collected from telcos by Israel's
domestic security agency and shared with health officials."
Leads me to wonder whether the enthusiasm for smartphone tracking in the UK - HMG seems to
be betting the farm on it - derives from the fact that GCHQ is geared up for that anyway.
This seems to be a version of the American approach to containing local outbreaks after
lockdown has been lifted -
"When we have more tests, we can open the economy in an aggressive way without any
danger and without being surprised – and the moment there is an outbreak in a
residential building or a school, you can go there [and close it] and not the whole city,"
Bennett said.
Also containing a reference to the progress made in ensuring the various tests are more
accurate -
"There have been more than 20 rapid serological tests that have been developed
worldwide – mainly in China – many of which have been found to provide inaccurate
results.
"However, Roche and a handful of companies, such as US-based Abbott Laboratories and
Becton Dickinson and Co., have created more sophisticated serological tests, which are
expected to be validated.
"Ofer said that, "If we run these tests in conjunction with the molecular test, then we
will get a full picture" – and as Bennett explained, "the closures will end."
Those are the roughly the references I put together to submit to an English site. On
another English site I read a reference to how one Canadian area (unnamed) geared up for the
pandemic -
We live in an Ontario health district, about the size of Connecticut (with 200,000
population), in a small city with a medical school. Our public health officer in January
alerted nursing homes and hospitals to prepare, e.g. get supplies and train staff for higher
hygiene standards. Example, auditing handwashing practices in nursing homes. As a result, we
have 50 total positive cases, almost all cases traceable to travel. No nursing home
outbreaks. No deaths. No ICU care. Two people currently in hospital."
So they got going on this back in January. If only ...
Before the Covid-19 "outbreak" there was a pneumonia known as the HAP "hospital-acquired
pneumonia" and also the CAP "community-acquired pneumonia" in nursing homes.
Even the "ventilator-associated pneumonia" VAP, somehow disappeared in the phrase book
because now some "experts" and Vaccination Pope Bill gates love to declare martial law to
fight the "covid-19 associated pneumonia" COP.
If you have a little bit time to research where the "NEW" Pneumonia breaked out you find
mainly:
Even Donald Trump was forced to demand carmakers to produce respiratory Ventilators ..to
help in the war against Covid-19.
You would think after three and half years of "witch hunt" Donald Trump should be an expert
but still he has the poisonous dwarf Dr. Fauci as an adviser this is like fighting the devil
with satan.
@Hempus HAP, VAP, and your CAP do not and can not prevent emergence of another Pneumonia
of newer causative agents that can spread like fire
When did HAP VAP CAP overwhelm
911, and ICU and kill nurses doctor bus drivers police and fire officers and nursing home
elderly in the nursing homes?
When did CAP VAP HAP and regular flu shit ever
cause this exponential rise in infectivity across the globe from 0 to 800,000 in 45 days in
USA?
When did the illness cause from those agents liver failure , gi bleeding , kidney failure
and resistant hypoxemia? When did any of those patients stay on ventilator for 3 weeks?
When did those illness show such diverse symptoms as by Corona at the beginning phase of the
illness ? When did those illness cause such morbidity in the afflicted young ?
When did those surviving the ICU admission report ongoing morbidities of this extent?
Trump is a moron , a thug , a liar . He is full of crap who has taken the ' deplorable 'for a
ride by throwing some fiery rhetorics .
@Hempus Your statement is illogical!
Why should a pneumonia previously called HAP, CAP and VAP and causes hundred thousands death
each year prevent "Covid-19?"
Because this one is not one of them . . This virus is different genetically ,
morphologically and clinically . Theoretically they can coexist in same patients .
It is not the mortality but the morbidity and the sped of unravelling that are acute and
overwhelming .
I don't agree with lockdown but I dont agree with this who wants to observe it What is
irksome is the lying thug 's Trumps denial and then lying about the denial .
I also believe given the checkered history of US it is US who possibly released it in China
either directly or indirectly .
When 2 patients aged 80 with same clinical and metabolic profiles in a nursing home are
observed and are found out one of them has died from an acute infection in less than 30 days
after symptoms appeared and other has continued to stay stable with no worsening and no
infection – you blame the virus for the death .
Have you bothered to check how many countries you are referring to altogether, which
purportedly had been forewarned about a possibly emerging epidemic, ahead of even the local
Chinese government?
Take a look: NATO + Israel = 31
NATO is not a country but a military subsidiary of the USA.
So according to the unsourced report, which so many wishfully presume as a fact, with so
many countries allegedly in on the "secret" briefing, not a single country's representative
followed up to monitor developments or even corroborated the briefing, but most
importantly, not a single country took any defensive preparations whatsoever in
advance.
The USA informed NATO and Israel not those thirty European colonies.
This shows the level of credulity that people will descend down to when an obvious news
fabrication happens to support their desired narrative. China worshippers here have become
severely blinded in light of the epidemic. So many commentators are thus eagerly making
themselves irrelevant, including Escobar, which I think is a good thing.
Dude, Esper thought that the report was such an "obvious news fabrication" that he didn't
deny it but merely said: " Oh, I can't recall, George ," ( ) " But, we have many
people who watch this closely ." So Esper didn't recall seeing the report but decided to
" have many people who watch this closely " because it was such an "obvious news
fabrication".
Peculiarly, one of the European countries that has handled the pandemic the best,
according to the statistics, Austria, is not a NATO member and would not have been in on
the "secret".
The USA didn't want to do anything about it but " have many people who watch this
closely " as Esper puts it because it was just a " live exercise " as Pompeo puts
it.
Yeah, I get it: you're one of those die-hard chinadidit people.
We have had a constant continual stream of 'disinformation' about covid-19:
"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear
evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in
#Wuhan, #China," the World Health Organization, January 14, 2020.
On February 29 on NBC's Today, for instance, Anthony Fauci said: "At this moment, there is
no need to change anything you're doing on a day-by-day basis, right now the risk is still
low, but this could change. When you start to see community spread, this could change, and
force you to become much more attentive to doing things that would protect you from
spread."
The National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (Fauci is the Head) gave a $3.7
million grant to the Wuhan Virology lab to study bat coronaviruses between 2010 and 2015. Was
this just science, or to develop trust for cover to introduce COVID-19 into the Wuhan area
and destroy the Chinese economy? (
https://jamesfetzer.org/2020/04/gordon-duff-documentary-proof-university-of-north-carolina-generated-covid-19/
)
Such conspiracy theories! If so, it boomeranged in a way only the CIA could produce.
Following new CDC
guidelines : " As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both
confirmed and probable cases and deaths . This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19
position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5,
2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally
notifiable disease.
A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for
COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic
evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting
presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii)
meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19" [
source ]
Branko Milanovic
@BrankoMilan
Why is nobody discussing truly staggering differences in death rates between Eastern and
Western Europe? In the @FT graphs none of Eastern European countries is even included. The
gap is just striking. (Worldometer, 22 April)
... from NBC: "People with obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure are at greater risk for
complications from the coronavirus, according to a large study of patients hospitalized with
the illness it causes...
The study included data on 5,700 people hospitalized with COVID-19 in the New York City
area.
Underlying conditions were common. The researchers found that, among all patients, 57
percent had high blood pressure, 41 percent were obese and just over a third had
diabetes."
Ummm...about 70% of Americans over age 65 have high blood pressure. And they are by far
the most severely afflicted group...
I think 'B' is barking mad on this one. Australia and New Zealand are locked down but have
almost negligible deaths. Maybe Italy and New York and London have a different strain of
virus, but from here, the calamitous effects upon the lives of the people is 10,000 times
worse than the disease.
We could just keep the border lock downs, no physical contact with strangers, etc, and I
am sure all will be ok.
'B' also claims that only a small percentage of people have had contact with the virus,
when it may already be 40%.
Russia detected 5,236 new coronavirus carriers yesterday. That is substantially less than
yesterday. But this is not the story. It really should not matter that much how many new
cases the Russians are able to dig up, because the big story is that according to Russia's
own statistics upwards of 60% of those infected don't get sick and are asymptomatic:
Why do they not present daily deaths and infections from normal influenza/flu/pneumonia,
as well as Covid 19, or are they all lumped into one box now called Covid19.
I will run with the Guardian reaction, this smells like a giant '9-11' psych-ops, a seize
for power, and a chance for the usual banking suspects to buy the world for cents in the
dollar.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus endures for days on plastic or metal but disintegrates soon after landing on copper surfaces. Here's why
When researchers reported last month that the novel
coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic survives for days on glass and stainless steel but dies within hours after landing
on copper, the only thing that surprised Bill Keevil was that the pathogen lasted so long on copper.
Keevil, a
microbiology
researcher
at the University of Southampton (U.K.), has studied the antimicrobial effects of copper for more than two
decades. He has watched in his laboratory as the simple metal slew one bad bug after another. He began with the bacteria that
causes Legionnaire's Disease and then turned to drug-resistant killer infections like Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus
aureus (MRSA). He tested viruses that caused worldwide health scares such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the
Swine Flu (H1N1) pandemic of 2009. In each case, copper contact killed the pathogen within minutes. "It just blew it apart,"
he says.
In 2015, Keevil turned his attention to
Coronavirus
229E
, a relative of the COVID-19 virus that causes the common cold and pneumonia. Once again, copper zapped the virus
within minutes while it remained infectious for five days on surfaces such as stainless steel or glass.
"One of the ironies is, people [install] stainless steel
because it seems clean and in a way, it is," he says, noting the material's ubiquity in public places. "But then the argument
is how often do you clean? We don't clean often enough." Copper, by contrast, disinfects merely by being there.
Ancient Knowledge
Keevil's work is a modern confirmation of an ancient
remedy. For
thousands of years, long
before they knew about germs or viruses,
people
have known
of copper's disinfectant powers. "Copper is truly a gift from Mother Nature in that the human race has been
using it for over eight millennia," says Michael G. Schmidt, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the Medical
University of South Carolina who researches copper in healthcare settings.
The
first
recorded use of copper
as an infection-killing agent comes from Smith's Papyrus, the oldest-known medical document in
history. The information therein has been ascribed to an Egyptian doctor circa 1700 B.C. but is based on information that
dates back as far as 3200 B.C. Egyptians designated the ankh symbol, representing eternal life, to denote copper in
hieroglyphs.
As far back as 1,600 B.C., the Chinese used copper coins
as medication to treat heart and stomach pain as well as bladder diseases. The sea-faring Phoenicians inserted shavings from
their bronze swords into battle wounds to prevent infection. For thousands of years, women have known that their children
didn't get diarrhea as frequently when they drank from copper vessels and passed on this knowledge to subsequent generations.
"You don't need a medical degree to diagnose diarrhea," Schmidt says.
And copper's power lasts. Keevil's team checked the old
railings at New York City's Grand Central Terminal a few years ago. "The copper is still working just like it did the day it
was put in over 100 years ago," he says. "This stuff is durable and the anti-microbial effect doesn't go away."
The
East Tower of the Royal Observatory, Edinburgh. The contrast between the refurbished copper installed in 2010 and the green
color of the original 1894 copper is clearly seen.
(Wiki Commons)
Long-Lasting Power
What the ancients knew, modern scientists and
organizations such as the Environmental Protection Agency have confirmed. The EPA has registered about 400 copper surfaces as
antimicrobial. But how exactly does it work?
Heavy metals including gold and silver are antibacterial,
but copper's specific atomic makeup gives it extra killing power, Keevil says. Copper has a free electron in its outer orbital
shell of electrons that easily takes part in oxidation-reduction reactions (which also makes the metal a good conductor). As a
result, Schmidt says, it becomes a "molecular oxygen grenade." Silver and gold don't have the free electron, so they are less
reactive.
Copper kills in other ways as well, according to Keevil,
who has published papers on the effect. When a microbe lands on copper, ions blast the pathogen like an onslaught of missiles,
preventing cell respiration and punching holes in the cell membrane or viral coating and creating free radicals that
accelerate the kill, especially on dry surfaces. Most importantly, the ions seek and destroy the DNA and RNA inside a bacteria
or virus, preventing the mutations that create drug-resistant superbugs. "The properties never wear off, even if it
tarnishes," Schmidt says.
Schmidt has focused his research on the question of
whether using copper alloys in often-touched surfaces reduces hospital infections. On any given day, about
one
in 31 hospital patients
has at least one healthcare-associated infection, according to the Centers for Disease Control,
costing as much as
$50,000
per patient
. Schmidt's
landmark study
, funded by the Department of Defense, looked
at copper alloys on surfaces including bedside rails, tray tables, intravenous poles, and chair armrests at three hospitals
around the country. That 43-month investigation revealed a 58 percent infection reduction compared to routine infection
protocols.
Further research stalled when the DOD focused on the Zika
epidemic, so Schmidt turned his attention to working with a manufacturer that created a
copper
hospital bed
. A
two-year
study
published earlier this year compared beds in an intensive care unit with plastic surfaces and those with copper. Bed
rails on the plastic surfaces exceeded the accepted risk standards in nearly 90 percent of the samples, while the rails on the
copper bed exceeded those standards on only 9 percent. "We again demonstrated in spades that copper can keep the built
environment clean from microorganisms," he says.
Schmidt is also a co-author of an 18-month study led by
Shannon Hinsa-Leasure, an environmental microbiologist at Grinnell College, that compared the bacterial abundance in occupied
and unoccupied rooms at Grinnell Regional Medical Center's 49-bed rural hospital. Again, copper reduced bacterial numbers. "If
you're using a copper alloy that's always working," Hinsa-Leasure says, "you still need to clean the environment, but you have
something in place that's working all the time (to disinfect) as well."
Harnessing Copper
Keevil and Schmidt have found that installing copper on
just 10 percent of surfaces would prevent infections and save $1,176 a day (comparing the reduced cost of treating infections
to the cost of installing copper). Yet hospitals have been slow to respond. "I've been surprised how slow it has been to be
taken up by hospitals," Hinsa-Leasure adds. "A lot of it has to do with our healthcare system and funding to hospitals, which
is very tight. When our hospital redid our emergency room, we installed copper alloys in key places. So it makes a lot of
sense when you're doing a renovation or building something that's new. It's more expensive if you're just changing something
that you already have."
The Sentara Hospital system in North Carolina and Virginia
made copper-impregnated surfaces the standard across 13 hospitals in 2017 for overbed tables and bed rails after a
2016
clinical tria
l at a Virginia Beach hospital reported a 78 percent reduction in drug-resistant organisms. Using technology
pioneered
in Israel
, the hospital has also moved to
copper-infused bedding
. Keevil says France
and Poland are beginning to put copper alloys in hospitals. In Peru and Chile, which produce copper, it's being used in
hospitals and the public transit systems. "So it's going around the world, but it still hasn't taken off," he says.
If copper kills COVID-19, should you periodically roll a
few pennies and nickels around in your hands? Stick with water, soap, and sanitizer. "You never know how many viruses are
affiliated with the hand, so it may not completely get them all," Schmidt says. "It will only be a guess if copper will
completely protect."
Now over the last two weeks, the city's fire officials said more than 2,192 New York City
residents died in their homes, compared to 453 during the same time period last year.
On average there are 25 deaths in home per week in NYC- Tuesday, April 7th for example,
there was 256. The reason? People are afraid to go to the hospitals, cardiologists are
confirming this, lest they get infected with the "killer virus." This means when they are in
the early stages of cardiac arrest, for example, they stay at home and some don't make
it.
NYC officials stated that they WILL NOT be conducting tests on these at home deaths nor
will they be doing any diagnostics on the cadavers.
NYC officials also confirmed that they will begin to count suspected COVID-19 deaths in
addition to cases confirmed by a laboratory.
Stephanie Buhle, a spokeswoman for the New York City's Health Department, confirmed the
change in protocol.
"The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) and the NYC Health Department are working
together to include into their reports deaths that may be linked to COVID but not lab
confirmed that occur at home."
NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio in his infinite wisdom acknowledged that the vast majority of
deaths taking place at home were likely also due to COVID-19. No tests, no diagnosis but the
mayor with his crystal ball stated:
"We do want to know the truth about every death at home, but it's safe to assume that the
vast majority are coronavirus related."
That's his exact quote.
What will this do to the COVID death count? What will this also do to the excess mortality
rate as people are fearful of getting immediate treatment for very serious life or death
conditions?
Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic , we are
woefully short of ventilators that can give the most gravely ill a chance for life. There
are many efforts afoot to
build more ventilators . Now, instead of building ventilators, a group of open-source
developers has a new idea: Create a firmware update, Airbreak , which can transform common Constant Positive Airway
Pressure (CPAP) machines into non-invasive ventilators. ebook
This TechRepublic Premium ebook compiles the latest on cancelled conferences, cybersecurity
attacks, remote work tips, and the impact this pandemic is having on the tech industry.
Their first effort -- a proof of concept -- converts the Airsense
10 CPAP machine , which is a common, inexpensive sleep apnea treatment device, into a
ventilator. It does so by simply replacing its existing firmware with updated firmware .
With this upgrade, the Airsense could be used as an emergency ventilator until a better,
purpose-built ventilator is available. It has the following ventilator features:
Adds a
Pressure Control Ventilator (PCV) mode that oscillates between high and low pressure at a
configurable breathing rate (stock firmware supports only a single pressure, with no breath
rate control). Allows maximum pressure to be increased to 30 cm H2O, as required by clinical
protocols (stock firmware is limited to 20cm H2O). Allows smooth rapid pressure change rates
for respiration rates up to 30 breaths per minute (stock firmware changes pressure at less than
1cm/sec). Unlocks all the vendor modes and tunable configuration parameters, including ST and
iVAPS modes present in the firmware. Provides access to all of the sensors (flow, pressure,
temperature, tidal volume, minute ventilation, etc). Displays real-time graphs on the screen to
show an immediate history of sensor data.
Now, CPAP devices with this firmware patch are not drop-in-replacements for ventilators. Far
from it. Additional equipment like viral filters and monitoring alarms are also required. As
its creators state:
We want to be very clear here: This modified firmware should not be flashed on CPAP
machines and used to treat COVID patients immediately. The firmware that we've developed is
an effective demonstration of the capability, and while it has been reviewed and validated by expert researchers, biomedical
engineers, and clinical pulmonologists , it has not yet been put through FDA [Food and
Drug Administration] approval. Additionally, the
Mt Sinai's protocols for off-label non-invasive ventilation require additional
modifications such as viral filter and remote control before the machines would be ready for
clinical use.
The programmers could send its firmware through the FDA approval process themselves, but its
developers think "the best route for rolling out these upgrades is to work with the
manufacturers to use their resources to validate and distribute these upgrades safely and at
scale."
The code has great potential. It would also be easy to deploy. The five million CPAP devices
shipped over the last three years have an always-on cellular connection. Thanks to that, these
devices can easily be upgraded over-the-air by device manufacturers. With this, hundreds of
thousands of CPAP machines could be upgraded overnight. This could easily bring millions of
unused or underutilized CPAP machines into hospitals just when we need them.
Further coding, testing, and evaluation need to be done with FDA approval received before
these patched CPAP machines can be deployed. But, the need is urgent, and it's a heck of a lot
easier to wirelessly update firmware than it is to build and deploy millions of new hardware
ventilators. This project isn't just a good idea -- it's one that deserves close attention from
CPAP manufacturers and medical professionals as soon as possible.
Sweden has roughly twice the obesity (21%] compared to 9.5% in Denmark and 44% of Swedes
are overweight. Studies of deceased in US determined obesity to be the largest factor
(outside of age) in covid mortality.
Two important results in Switzerland and Germany show that it is the elimination of large
gatherings together with mask wearing and social distancing that have had the main impact on
reducing the infectivity of covid-19, not the lockdowns (which appear to have had relatively
minor effects so far, according to these two results). Any measures have a built-in delay of
8 to 10 days before their effects, due to the incubation periods of successive infections.
Правообладатель
иллюстрации
Stanislav Krasilnikov/TASS
Мэрия Москвы еще в двадцатых числах марта попросила столичные
больницы оценить, сколько пациентов с коронавирусом они могут принять. На план перестройки и
возведение необходимых перегородок им дали пять дней. Из больниц долечиваться домой отправили
тысячи человек, оставив только тяжелых больных. Новых пациентов не с коронавирусом
перепрофилированные клиники почти не принимают - разворачивают скорые в другие стационары.
"Реанимация заполнилась в течение одного дня, и рук перестало
хватать"
Чтобы разграничить заразную зону от чистой, в больницах возвели новые стены, рассказывает
главврач центра оказания медицинской помощи пациентам с подозрением на коронавирусную инфекцию НМЦХ
им. Пирогова Виталий Гусаров. Устроили санпропускники, шлюзы, где сотрудники переодеваются перед
входом в красную зону, и шлюзы, где они возвращаются из зоны.
Много сил при переделке клиник уходит на логистику: на каких лифтах будут ездить заболевшие
пациенты, откуда будут уходить вылечившиеся, как медсестры будут передвигаться по корпусу, как
вывозить медицинские отходы из красной зоны. По-другому теперь приходится даже простыни сдавать в
стирку: все белье из Covid-отделения проходит дезинфекцию, и только потом его можно везти в
прачечную.
В коронавирусный корпус Пироговского центра пошли работать неврологи, кардиологи, терапевты,
хирурги, травматологи, говорит их главврач. "Мы все были заточены на помощь высокого уровня, -
писал в "Фейсбуке" реаниматолог этой больницы, заведующий отделением анестезиологии-реанимации № 1
Борис Теплых. - Где-то слышались реплики, что использовать нас - все равно что микроскопом гвозди
забивать. Но увидев в следующие дни бурю, ни у кого не осталось сомнений, что пришло время
"засадных полков". Девочки-неврологи плакали, надевали защитные костюмы и шли в красную зону".
Правда, по словам Гусарова, коллега эмоции медиков преувеличил. "Все сотрудники с первого дня в
красной зоне осознавали свою ответственность и были готовы к тяжелой работе, настоящие герои", -
говорит он.
Но не все медики морально готовы работать с Covid-19. В Пироговском центре говорят о нехватке
медсестер и санитарок. Медсестры отказывались из страха заразить своих близких, у кого-то сложная
семейная ситуация и они не имеют возможности оставить свои семьи на время работы в госпитале, а
многие пожилые ссотрудники оказались в группе риска из-за возраста.
Согласившиеся лечить коронавирус медики, не имеющие нужной специализации, работают в отделениях,
где лежат не самые тяжелые пациенты. Для них, не инфекционистов по профилю, в больнице
разрабатывают пошаговые инструкции. По словам Гусарова, их составляют из рекомендаций минздрава,
столичного департамента, ВОЗ, федерации анестезиологов-ревматологов и других источников.
Работает в красной зоне и сам главный врач стационара Пироговского центра.
- В первую неделю, когда мы открылись, реанимация заполнилась в течение одного дня - и рук
перестало хватать. А у меня специальность такая. Надо было и трахеостомию делать, и к ИВЛ
подключать, мы пошли помогать ребятам.
- Вы, будучи главврачом, уже так делали?
- Я регулярно приходил в реанимационную на проведение обходов и разбора сложных случаев. Но
чтобы из-за вала пациентов пришлось встать и оказывать экстренную помощь как врачу реанимации -
нет, такого еще не было. С таким мы столкнулись впервые и остро.
"К концу смены в защитных костюмах некоторые падают в обморок"
Перед входом в красную зону, где лежат инфицированные коронавирусом, каждый надевает специальный
защитный костюм. Он одноразовый. Под него - одноразовый же хлопчатобумажный костюм, какие носят
хирурги, шапочка, одноразовые носки, кроксы и бахилы.
"Снимаем с себя всё, оставляем часы, ключи, мобильные телефоны. Никаких предметов быта в зоне.
Иногда нательный крестик оставляют, но я бы не рекомендовал на себе хоть что-то носить", -
рассказывает Александр Левчук, бывший главный хирург Военно-морского флота, работающий в
Пироговском центре уже 14 лет. Левчук - советник по хирургическим вопросам, врач-онколог, профессор
кафедры, доктор медицинских наук, заслуженный врач РФ.
Это уже четвертый карантин за карьеру 61-летнего хирурга. Первые три были в военных частях при
дизентерии, малярии и холере. В центре он отвечает за сортировку больных, которых привозят скорые.
Через четыре часа работы с пациентами костюм надо менять.
В 15-й инфекционной больнице имени О. М. Филатова в санпропускном шлюзе работают около 30
человек, которые помогают врачам переодеваться. "Ещё пока всё это не началось, мы выбирали одного
добровольца из коллектива и на него раз двадцать надевали защиту, чтобы запомнить, как, например,
респиратор правильно надевать", - рассказывает главврач Валерий Вечорко.
В красной зоне нельзя расстегиваться и ничего снимать тоже нельзя - ни респиратор, ни очки. "В
защите жарко, хочется воды, плохо видно. В туалет ходить нельзя, пить и есть тоже. На всякий случай
у нас лежат взрослые памперсы, некоторые ими уже пользуются. Но в них под костюмом сразу становится
еще жарче, появляются проблемы с кожей, опрелости", - говорит главврач центра имени Пирогова.
На руки медики надевают две пары перчаток и сверху третью - для осмотра пациента. Их сразу
выбрасывают, а первые две пары остаются на руках. "Я вам как хирург могу сказать - снижается
тактильность. Сложно осматривать. Ну зато слышимость хорошая - костюмы сделаны не из прорезиненной
ткани, не то, что в 80-е годы. В тех водолазных костюмах было совсем тяжело работать", - объясняет
Левчук.
Правообладатель
иллюстрации
Красильников Станислав
Image caption
Так проходили
тренинги по экипировке в Пироговском центре
В защите невозможно послушать дыхательные шумы и хрипы пациента - вместе с комплектом нельзя
использовать фонендоскоп. Приходится ориентироваться на частоту дыхания, лихорадку и данные о
насыщенности крови кислородом, говорит Гусаров. "Вообще в защите и в красной зоне оценить пациента
сложнее раза в три, чем в обычной обстановке больницы", - рассказывает он.
В реанимации и на сортировке смены длятся по четыре часа, в коечных отделениях - по шесть. К
концу смены в защитных костюмах некоторые падают в обморок, но встают и идут работать дальше.
"Причем это не изнеженные создания, а, например, наша старшая сестра, которая любому мужчине даст
фору по силам и здоровью", - говорит главврач Гусаров. Рассказывает о медсестре, которую накануне в
красной зоне вырвало в респиратор от усталости, но она дорабатывала смену, не уходя от пациентов.
"Это люди, перед которыми хочется встать на колени", - добавляет врач.
"Я люблю эту работу, я готов делать все, - говорит работающий в приемном покое Пироговского
центра Левчук. - Вот я вообще военный хирург, а сейчас - на сортировке больных. Нужно - пойду
носилки таскать".
Если соблюдать все санитарно-эпидемиологические нормы с самого начала и до самого конца,
заразиться сложно, говорит Левчук. Но обычно, по его мнению, среди врачей заболевают люди, которые
первые две недели о правилах помнят, а потом настает период самоуспокоения, и вот тогда совершаются
ошибки - небрежно надевают костюм или маску или нарушают правило трех пар перчаток.
Тесты на коронавирус сотрудникам больниц делают раз в неделю. Почти все медики изолировались от
семей, Гусаров снял квартиру, большинство других медиков его центра живут в гостинице напротив
Пироговки - за них платит больница.
Главврач ГКБ №15 Валерий Вечорко рассказывает, что в больнице для врачей работают два кафе: одно
с пальмами на месте старого бассейна, "как в Турции на пятизвездочном курорте", а второе под
названием "Звезда" в двух армейских палатках на улице.
"Пока мы идем в потемках"
Что делают врачи с пациентами в красной зоне? Если человек в удовлетворительном состоянии, то
ему нужно только наблюдение, жаропонижающее и обильное питье. Такие пациенты часто бывают
недовольны. "Жалуются, что их не лечат. И капельниц не капают", - улыбается Гусаров. Но главная
задача пребывания в стационаре - не пропустить ухудшения. Клиническая картина бывает скоротечной,
утверждает хирург Левчук: пациенту может стать хуже за два-три часа, и он может оказаться на ИВЛ.
Пациенты в тяжелом состоянии получают противовирусные лекарства и препараты, направленные на
уменьшение повреждений внутренних органов. "Мы пробуем тоцилизумаб, который блокирует человеческий
интерлейкин-6. Этот противовоспалительный медиатор вырабатывает наша иммунная система, чтобы
повреждать клетки, пораженные вирусом - вместе с тканями органов, куда он попал. В итоге страдают в
первую очередь легкие и сердце".
Слишком сильный иммунный ответ на коронавирус и приводит к осложнениям, говорит Гусаров. "Так
что распространенное сейчас пожелание сильного иммунитета как раз не очень подходит, - вздыхает он.
- Есть ощущение, что все зависит от степени иммунной реакции на вирус. Чем она сильнее, тем хуже
протекает болезнь. Препарат, к которому мы присматриваемся, блокирует эту сильную реакцию
иммунитета. Но доказательной базы нет, и пока мы идем в потемках".
Весь персонал центра имени Пирогова для профилактики принимает противомалярийный
иммуносупрессивный препарат. По поводу ультрафиолетовых ламп, которые сейчас покупают россияне для
своих домов, врачи разводят руками: последние данные по ультрафиолету показали, что стандартные
рециркуляторы воздуха не воздействуют на вирус.
Главврач больницы №15, после медицинского училища работавший в зоне Чернобыльской катастрофы,
говорит, что тогда врачам было понятнее, с чем они столкнулись. "Там был один поражающий фактор,
потом чётко отработанная помощь при этом факторе. А здесь, вот эта беда, она как снег на голову
свалилась. Мы видели, что было в Китае, Италии, Испании, но никто до конца не понимает, что это за
штука. Она очень подвержена мутациям".
"Многие не понимают самого главного - этот возбудитель постоянно мутирует, - согласен с Вечорко
бывший военный врач Левчук. - Он становится всё сложнее и сложнее. Это не тот коронавирус, который
был описан в 2005-м или в 2015 году. Это вирус, зло протекающий, вызывающий пневмонии,
заканчивающиеся летальным исходом".
"Эти очаги невооруженным глазом видны"
В большинстве больниц коронавирус уже ставят по результатам компьютерной томографии (КТ), не
дожидаясь тестов - их чувствительность не идеальна, говорит главврач ГКБ №15 Валерий Вечорко.
"Больной к нам приехал, мы сделали КТ, сразу видно, как изменена ткань лёгочная - по типу матового
стекла. Эти очаги, они невооруженным глазом видны. Даже при отрицательном тесте на Covid мы лечим
так, как будто он есть", - объясняет он.
Аппарат КТ после каждого пациента дезинфицируют - медсестра моет аппарат антисептиками с хлором
и опрыскивает помещение из специального пульверизатора. В красной зоне больницы №15 - три аппарата.
В зоне центра имени Пирогова - один. Нагрузка на него колоссальная, но "пока работает". Закупиться
впрок сейчас не получится, потому что зарубежные производители в пандемию работают на больницы
внутри своих стран, а в России серийного производства томографов пока нет, говорит Гусаров.
На ИВЛ в больницах лежат пациенты возрастом от 25 до 90 лет. "Один из наших молодых пациентов -
мальчик с ДЦП. Но по опыту наших коллег, с которыми мы постоянно на связи, на ИВЛ с тяжелой формой
много молодых и без сопутствующих заболеваний", - рассказывает Гусаров. Или люди с ожирением и
сахарным диабетом, добавляет Левчук. Эти болезни намного утяжеляют состояние. Диабет не позволяет
адекватно лечить больного - много осложнений на легкие и почки, говорит врач.
Пациентами, по словам медиков, становятся те, кто столкнулся с заболевшим на работе или в семье,
или где-то проехался или кого-то навестил, либо натолкнулся на бессимптомного носителя в магазине.
В центре Пирогова лечится семейная пара, которая навестила в самоизоляции родственника-носителя
Covid-19. Теперь муж лежит на ИВЛ, а жена в палате этажом выше.
"После ИВЛ надо научить больного дышать самостоятельно"
Человек, дышать которому помогает аппарат ИВЛ, не может говорить. Если у него стоит
интубационная трубка, введенная через рот, то он, скорее всего, не может переносить это спокойно и
его седатируют. Такие пациенты лежат в медикаментозном сне, без сознания. "Закон такой - пациент
должен быть спокоен - или сам, или под действием седативных препаратов", - объясняет заместитель
главврача больницы №15 Борислав Силаев.
Если заболевшему для поддержания дыхания наложена трахеостома - трубка заведена через разрез на
шее ниже голосовых складок - и пациент спокойно это переносит, то его можно оставить в сознании.
Тогда он общается с врачами губами, жестами, кивками. Могут сказать "да" или "нет" и даже что-то
написать. Такие пациенты могут даже есть привычным способом. Остальных кормят, отправляя
питательную смесь прямо в желудок через зонд, или, если состояние тяжелое, есть смеси, которые
вводятся прямо в вену, рассказывает Силаев.
Пациентам на ИВЛ чистят зубы, их моют, регулярно меняют белье и перестилают постель. Иногда все
это делают по несколько раз в день - и все это силами санитарок и медсестер. Если уход ослабить, то
повышается риск бактериальных осложнений. Если они присоединяются к вирусной пневмонии, это делает
шансы на выздоровление в разы ниже.
Болеющим коронавирусом легче дышать, лежа на животе. "В больницах это протокольная процедура -
если содержание кислорода в легких снижается ниже допустимых пределов, мы переворачиваем пациента
на живот, - говорит Силаев. - Они так могут лежать по восемь часов. Чтобы их переворачивать, тоже
нужны руки, у санитарки сил не хватает вертеть здоровых мужчин".
Везучие обходятся кислородной маской и на ИВЛ не попадают. Но если у заболевшего стояла
трахеостома, то лечение на ИВЛ продлевается на 2-3 недели, рассказывает врач Левчук. "Потому что
потом надо научить больного дышать заново, самостоятельно, а это тоже непросто - каждый день
уменьшается время работы аппарата ИВЛ, больной на некоторое время от него отключается, тренируется
дышать сам. Трудная процедура", - поясняет хирург.
- Им страшно? Ведь врачи должны давать надежду, а вы сами впотьмах передвигаетесь. Ведь, как мы
поняли со слов врачей, человек может 10 дней лежать в нормальном состоянии, а потом - бабах и на
ИВЛ.
- Ну, во-первых, мы им об этом не рассказываем - что может наступить резкое ухудшение, -
отвечает главврач центра имени Пирогова Гусаров. - Мы их ободряем, говорим, что все будет хорошо,
объясняем, какой где катетер установлен и зачем какая трубка. Призываем держаться и слушаться
медперсонала.
"Разговаривайте со своей собакой"
К началу второй недели обе реанимации Пироговского центра заполнились, и пациентов стали класть
в операционные палаты. Всего здесь 33 реанимационные койки и 33 аппарата ИВЛ, но открыть их все
врачи пока не могут: не хватает анестезиологов и медсестер, идет набор.
В крупной Филатовской больнице рук пока хватает, недавно пришли пять новых реаниматологов.
"Сегодня у меня нет проблем с медицинскими работниками, а что завтра будет - не знаю, не могу
сказать. Одно могу сказать - завтра это не закончится", - рассказывает Вечорко.
Пациентов в больнице №15 стало в два раза больше. Обычно здесь принимают по 150 человек в день,
на прошлой неделе - было 300 в сутки. В основном это люди в состоянии средней степени тяжести или
совсем "тяжелые" - с дыхательной недостаточностью.
- Сколько все это продлится?
- По тем поступлениям, которые мы видим, а у нас 1,5 тысячи пациентов с вирусной пневмонией, это
только самое начало пика, - говорит Вечорко.
- В Москве сейчас 8 тысяч пациентов с Covid-19. Все-таки это не 30 и не 50. Это много? Почему
уже сейчас, как говорят в мэрии, все трещит по швам? - спрашиваем мы у главврача Пироговского
центра.
- Ну вы же понимаете, что пациенты с другими заболеваниями никуда не делись. Это плюс восемь
тысяч, которые требуют экстренной медпомощи и работы персонала в принципиально новых для них
условиях. Это почти предел. Если поток увеличится, мы перестанем справляться, - отвечает Гусаров.
- Как это будет выглядеть?
- Итальянский сценарий. Интубация на полу. Выбор между молодым и пожилым при переводе в
реанимацию. Невозможность нормально осмотреть всех при поступлении: то есть приехали и лежат, а
если ухудшается - хватай и беги с ним на ИВЛ.
- Как решают, молодой или пожилой? Есть протоколы для такого выбора?
- С точки зрения медицинской этики, таких протоколов нет и не может быть, мы обязаны помогать
всем.
- А как тогда?
- Ну как решают во время боевых действий, когда массовое поступление раненых? Идет сортировка по
состоянию. Легкораненые оказывают помощь себе сами. Люди с ранениями средней тяжести - группа,
которой оказывают особое внимание, чтобы спасти их и вернуть в строй. А тяжелораненые остаются без
него.
Бывший военный врач Левчук, работающий на сортировке в Пироговском центре, говорит, что каждый
третий их пациент уверен, что у него не коронавирусная инфекция: "У людей очень высокая степень
недооценки ситуации. А потом, когда они понимают, что с ними, они уже молчат".
Его коллега Гусаров вспоминает панику в глазах отрицателей коронавируса, когда они попадают в
больницу с симптомами ОРВИ и сталкиваются там с тяжелыми пациентами. "Понимаете, здесь это
ощущается острее. Они могли вчера все это отрицать, а толку? - вздыхает он. - Мне хочется попросить
отрицателей все равно сидеть дома. А если выходите по неотложной надобности, например, с собакой
гулять - то не общайтесь ни с кем, разговаривайте со своей собакой. Если этого не делать,
здравоохранение захлебнется. Мы не сможем оказывать медицинскую помощь всем нуждающимся, если из-за
отрицателей и нарушителей карантина поток будет расти".
И тогда, говорит Гусаров, люди должны быть готовыми к тому, что их будет интубировать
травматолог или патологоанатом. И возможно, это будет последняя манипуляция в их жизни, добавляет
он.
I live in Taiwan and I know for a fact that this entire post is a flat-out lie.
Tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands of people were forcibly quarantined for the last three
weeks after traveling, as well as entire sections of cities, based solely on whether they had
traveled to districts in areas of Taiwan's largest cities or if there were confirmed cases in
their neighborhood.
The quarantines were enforced with cel-phone apps that used GPS to confirm if the person
in question was at home, doubled up with 4 phone calls a day to confirm of the person was
near their phone or not.
Pft clearly either doesn't live on Taiwan or cannot access the local news (I.e.:
doesn'tspeak or read Chinese), because this is pretty much all anyone has been talking about
for the last month.
In addition, social distancing is being enforced in all markets (and yes, we have the
"wet" ones here, too, except we call them "traditional," while the "dry" ones are called
either "grain" or "North-South Goods", so all you fools slandering "wet markets" should also
do us all a favor by cutting out your tongues), convenience stores, etc. All citizens were
asked by the government to stay at home, the last 2 weekends. Masks are mandatory on all
public transportation and anywhere food is purchased. Etc.
By this research, spread may be a lot faster and harder to control in populations or cultures
with many domestic cats.
"SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have originated in bats; however, the intermediate animal
sources of the virus are completely unknown. Here, we investigated the susceptibility of
ferrets and animals in close contact with humans to SARS-CoV-2. We found that SARS-CoV-2
replicates poorly in dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks, but efficiently in ferrets and cats. We
found that the virus transmits in cats via respiratory droplets.' https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.015347v1.full
At the grocery. Wearing my mask. Lady behind me, snarky & loud enough to make sure I
heard, "don't guess she realizes that stupid mask won't do any good." Me: "Honey, I'm an off
duty nurse, I'm wearing it to protect YOU. But, I can take it off if you'd like." She
practically ran.
The reality of the #COVID19 pandemic
is that my patients have lost all faith in our healthcare system so even when they are very
short of breath or have low oxygen levels they refuse to go to the ER bc they're afraid they
will die in a corner and they would rather die at home.
Reminder: because of the aggressive way in which we code #COVID deaths - and because
the virus mostly kills elderly people with pre-existing conditions (who may be dying WITH and
not OF it), changes in all-cause mortality will be the ONLY reliable way to judge the death
toll.
Gene Epstein 8:47 AM - 17 Apr 2020
I suggest we look at all-cause mortality EXCLUDING: --all transport-related deaths (which
should be way down), ---suicides & deaths from drug overdose (should be up) --all
crime-related deaths (should be down).
Piers Morgan has lashed out at the UK government's care minister, branding her numbers on
Covid-19 deaths in the health and care sector "complete nonsense" as anger grows over the
apparent lack of protection for frontline workers. The 55-year-old Good Morning Britain TV
presenter grilled Care Minister Helen Whately in a heated interview on Wednesday morning on the
working conditions for health and care staff at the center of the coronavirus crisis.
Morgan asked Whately what the death toll was for health and care professionals who have
fallen victim to the deadly Covid-19 disease. The stuttering minister replied: "So the
latest figures we have for NHS workers is that 19 [NHS] workers have sadly died."
'We don't have a figure for that' - Helen Whately @piersmorgan questions the Care
Minister over the number of healthcare workers that have died on the front line from the
coronavirus. pic.twitter.com/VFcqFJX5SE
Morgan, cutting in before Whately could finish her sentence, sniped: "That's complete
nonsense." He added that the Mirror newspaper had reported as recently as Tuesday that 38
had died so far.
Found the kid playing with her dog instead of Zooming with her teacher. She told me not to
worry. She took a screenshot of herself "paying attention," then cut her video & replaced
it with the picture. "It's a gallery view of 20 kids, mom. They can't tell." She is 10.
#COVID19
[ Labor
Notes ]. "More than 100 hospitals in the U.S. have laid off workers since the pandemic
began. Tens of thousands of medical workers are furloughed at the exact moment hospitals should
be staffing up and training everyone in intensive care. Expecting a tidal wave of very sick
patients, many of whom could be unemployed and uninsured, many hospitals have ended all
elective procedures, one of their most lucrative sources of revenue. Since insurance in the
United States is primarily tied to having a job, hospitals anticipate being left with egregious
costs they have no hope of ever being able to recoup."
This interview by WebMD with a doctor at Maimonides in New York is important and should be
viewed by everyone. What he is saying is that this virus causes a *new* disease that is *not*
conventional ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) and (probably) should not be treated
by the same protocols developed for treating ARDS.
The bottom line is that the doctors currently treating you for this virus (probably) *do
not know* how to treat this virus! They are feeling their way through this thing. As the
doctor in the video above suggests, the medical profession needs to examine the *possibility*
that COVID-19 is a *new* disease and that previous protocols may not apply.
For patients on ventilators, the bottom line is that upwards of 50 percent - to seventy
percent, according to this doctor - will not come out alive, based on current protocols.
This Webinar - which I believed was referenced here in an earlier thread by someone - is
along the same lines (Warning: More technical than the above because it is a Webinar for
doctors - but still valuable to watch):
This video explains much about the inter-action of SARS-Covid2 virus and... spike/ACEnzyme2
binding to AT2 lung cells, furin, membrane porosity via viroporons E and ORf3a, macrophages,
cell-free heme, porphyrins, sabotage of ferrous/hemoglobin oxygen transport, ferritin
hypoxia, ascorbate/DHA recycling, Nitric Oxide, Oxidative Bursts, etc.
I cannot judge its degree of truth and errors and omissions, but I could follow its
detailed view of how the disease can be understood and handled. For that it was very
helpful.
You might scan thru the introduction of the presenter and get right into her 1-hour , very
tight review .
Looking at that uche blackstock tweet about patients not wanting to come in, and
then seeing how much it was echoed (despite blackstock's dismay at people waiting) in the
responses, I was struck by how very much it reminded me of H.L. Mencken's description of
growing up in late 19th century Baltimore, and how terrified the poor were at the prospect of
"recieving treatment" in hospitals, from which few ever returned.
Take a second and let that sink in. Then think of how south korea is treating sick people,
where it actually appears to be 2020. Think about that too.
Then say your names like the 2nd daughter of Ned Stark, and knit yourself something.
Yep, this is America our motto you're on your own and we all know it. And here is
this PMC doctor shocked, shocked that the locals have figured out the American Public Health
Care scam.
So, Il Douche will declare this annoying emergency over in a week or two, and we can all
climb back on the monthly payment dreadmill. As a geezer, I will find that extremely
comforting inasmuch as there will no longer be any uncertainty about my near term health I
will be well and truly doomed. And will I be visiting Dr. Uche and his cohorts when I am
drowning? Nah, that's not the plan! Besides, when the post-pandemic CV tidal wave hits what's
left of the health care apparatus, who would want to be bothering the wretched, surviving
nurses, PAs and docs?
BTW Ralph Reed, barring a last trip on the on the LSD, 100 µg, intramuscular I.V.,
do you have any of those purple dots left?
Ron Paul, in a Monday interview with host Dan Dicks at Press for Truth, warns that people
"should be leery about" coronavirus vaccines that may come out. Further, says Paul, a doctor
and former United States House of Representatives member, "right now I wouldn't think there is
any indication for anybody to take them," noting that "scare tactics" are being used to
pressure people into thinking they should take such potential vaccines to protect against
coronavirus.
Paul supports this conclusion by stressing in the interview the potential danger of a
vaccine as well as the overstated threat from coronavirus.
Regarding the potential danger from a coronavirus vaccine, Paul discusses at the beginning
of the interview how, in 1976 in his first week as a House member, Paul was one of only two
members, both doctors, who voted against legislation that helped rush through a vaccine in
response to swine flu. Paul describes the results of the push for people to take the swine flu
vaccine as follows:
They rushed the vaccine through. The vaccine was not properly made. It had nothing to do with
the virus that was out there, so it saved nobody's life from it. It caused a lot of harm.
More people ended up dying from the inoculation than died from the flu that year. And that
sort of was a lesson, like that's a little bit too extreme. But, that's about what happens
when governments get involved and you do things for political reasons.
There was also, because a lot of people ended up getting the vaccine, I think there were
like 50 people or more who got Guillain-Barré syndrome, which is temporary total
paralysis and you can die from it but most of them did get better. But, it was a very, very
serious complication of a viral injection, you know, a vaccine.
Paul also discusses in the interview the overstated danger from coronavirus that
is being used to scare people to take actions including to potentially take a coronavirus
vaccine.
Paul notes that many of the people whose deaths have been blamed on coronavirus are elderly
people, including people living in nursing homes, who have multiple other diseases. Further,
explains Paul, doctors have "been instructed by [the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention] and other politicians that, when the doctors sign the death certificate, if
[patients] have four different things but they happen to have a positive test for the virus
that is to be put down as the major cause of death." "The numbers mean nothing," concludes Paul
regarding the daily tabulation of coronavirus deaths.
In addition, Paul explains that many more people than officially recorded have contracted
coronavirus. Some of these individuals never became sick. Others got better without any
treatment, says Paul, pointing to his son Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) as an example. While Rand Paul
was given a test that confirmed he had coronavirus, most people who have had coronavirus and
suffered no to minor medical problems have not been tested. With "probably millions of people"
having contracted coronavirus, Paul concludes that the percentage of people who have contracted
coronavirus and have died as a result "is probably very, very small."
While Paul says he would choose not to take a vaccine for the coronavirus should one appear
next week even if people claim it is 99 percent effective, he says that the decision to take or
not take a vaccine is one that should be made by each individual, who can discuss the vaccine
alternative with a doctor. Absolutely, Paul concludes, that decision should not be made by
government.
Watch here Paul's complete interview, in which he also discusses how government actions
taken in the name of fighting coronavirus are harming the economy and his support for people
speaking out for ending coronavirus-justified encroachments on freedom:
A German team under Prof Streeck argues that workplaces don't spread the coronavirus as much
as play spaces: singing in a choir produces an aerosol and spray cloud, dancing together in a
room or bar, or nightclub apres-ski, also creates infective clouds, as would any confined space
where lots of people are in close contact breathing heavily. Although public health guidance
has been coy on this matter, orgies are probably best avoided.
On that theme, there are settings in which you are likely to get a big dose, a large viral
load, and others where the globules will be few and far between. As one caustic virologist
observed, getting out into the open air is a good defense against respiratory transmitted
infections: avoiding infection is a walk in the park.
The researchers think there could be a difference between the actual and official numbers due
to a percentage of citizens who have been infected with the virus but do not show any symptoms.
At the same time, they can potentially transmit it to other people, and the overall tally
continues to grow. A group of scientists from California estimates that the actual number of
COVID-19 cases in one county
may be up to 85 times higher than the official data.
The Stanford University-led researchers took data from Santa Clara County as the basis for
their study, where 3,330 adults and minors have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
According to their findings, the COVID-19 prevalence in the area ranged from 2.49 percent to
4.16 percent, representing 50-85 times more cases than the number confirmed by the
authorities.
"Our data imply that, by 1 April (three days prior to the end of our survey) between 48,000
and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara County. The reported number of confirmed
positive cases in the county on 1 April was 956, 50-85-fold lower than the number of
infections predicted by this study", the study says.
Apart from detecting asymptomatic carriers, recording previously unreported cases will also
help provide better estimates on the prevalence of COVID-19, the study suggests.
According to the researchers, their findings will help make more accurate projections on the
epidemic's spread and mortality rate in the future.
"While our study was limited to Santa Clara County, it demonstrates the feasibility of
seroprevalence surveys of population samples now, and in the future, to inform our
understanding of this pandemic's progression, project estimates of community vulnerability,
and monitor infection fatality
The most infectious period is thought to be 1 to 3 days before symptoms start, and in the
first 7
days after symptoms begin. But some people may remain infectious for longer.
Commonly reported symptoms for COVID-19 – such as fever, cough and fatigue –
usually last around
9 to 10 days but this can be longer.
Why are some people infectious for longer?
Typically with viruses, the higher the viral load (the more virus circulating in the body),
the higher the risk of transmission through known transmission pathways.
A study conducted in Hong Kong looking at viral load in 23 patients diagnosed with COVID-19
found higher viral loads in the first
week of illness .
Another study
from China looking at 76 hospitalised patients found that by 10 days after symptom onset,
mild cases had cleared the virus. That is, no virus was detectable through testing.
If someone has been symptom-free for
3 days and they developed their first symptoms more than
10 days prior, they are no longer considered to be infectious.
But we're not sure whether people are infectious when they have recovered but the virus can
still be detected in their bodies.
One study from Hong Kong found the virus could be detected for 20 days
or longer after the initial onset of symptoms in one-third of patients tested.
Another study from China found found the virus in a patients' faecal samples five
weeks after the first onset of symptoms.
But the detection of the virus doesn't necessarily mean the person is infectious. We need
more studies with larger sample sizes to get to the bottom of this question.
Should you get tested again before going back into the community?
Due to a global shortage of coronavirus tests, the
Commonwealth and state governments have strict criteria about who should be tested for
COVID-19 and when.
People who have been
self-quarantining , because they had contact with a confirmed case of COVID-19 and have
completed their 14-day quarantine period without developing symptoms, can
return to the community . There is no requirement to be tested prior to returning to the
community. It is, however, recommended they continue to practise
social distancing and
good hygiene as a precaution.
The requirements are different for people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19.
At present, re-testing people who have experienced mild illness, and have recovered from
COVID-19 is not recommended. A person is considered safe to
return to the community and discontinue self-isolation if they are no longer infectious.
This means they developed their first symptoms more than
10 days prior and have not experienced any symptoms for at least 3 days (72 hours).
Covers all kinds of snowballing repercussions of the pandemic in US/world including:
-plummeting US economic activity indicators /bank reserves data
-food production/processing supply chain problems
-clinical observations from icu doctors world wide of new multi-organ (kidney heart GI
testes) involvements, olfactory/neurological/pinkeye, etc phenomena (from Washington Post of
all places).
The problem is that vaccines often aren't as effective against viruses that mutate, like the
flu does every season (that's why you need to keep getting that flu shot year after year). And
now, a new scientific
paper that - like most of the coronavirus research being cited in the press - has yet to be
peer reviewed claims to have identified a mutation in a sample of the virus collected in India
that could create serious problems for researchers working on a vaccine.
Monitoring the mutation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for the development of
effective approaches to contain the 21 pathogen. By analyzing 106 SARS-CoV-2 and 39 SARS
genome sequences, we provided direct genetic evidence that 22 SARS-CoV-2 has a much lower
mutation rate than SARS. Minimum Evolution phylogeny analysis revealed the putative original
status of SARS-CoV-2 and the early-stage spread history. The discrepant phylogenies for the
spike protein and it receptor binding domain proved a previously reported structural
rearrangement prior to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Despite that, we found the spike
glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 is particularly more conserved, we identified a mutation that
leads to weaker receptor binding capability, which concerns a SARS-CoV-2 sample collected on
27th January 2020 from India. This represents the first report of a significant SARS-CoV-2
mutant, and raises the alarm that the ongoing vaccine Development may become futile in future
epidemic if more mutations were identified.
Background: During respiratory viral infection, face masks are thought to prevent
transmission (1). Whether face masks worn by patients with coronavirus disease 2019
(COVID-19) prevent contamination of the environment is uncertain (2, 3). A previous study
reported that surgical masks and N95 masks were equally effective in preventing the
dissemination of influenza virus (4), so surgical masks might help prevent transmission of
severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS–CoV-2). However, the
SARS–CoV-2 pandemic has contributed to shortages of both N95 and surgical masks, and
cotton masks have gained interest as a substitute.
Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of surgical and cotton masks in filtering
SARS–CoV-2.
...
Discussion: Neither surgical nor cotton masks effectively filtered SARS–CoV-2 during
coughs by infected patients. Prior evidence that surgical masks effectively filtered
influenza virus (1) informed recommendations that patients with confirmed or suspected
COVID-19 should wear face masks to prevent transmission (2). However, the size and
concentrations of SARS–CoV-2 in aerosols generated during coughing are unknown.
Oberg and Brousseau (3) demonstrated that surgical masks did not exhibit adequate filter
performance against aerosols measuring 0.9, 2.0, and 3.1 μm in diameter.
Lee and colleagues (4) showed that particles 0.04 to 0.2 μm can penetrate surgical
masks. The size of the SARS–CoV particle from the 2002–2004 outbreak was
estimated as 0.08 to 0.14 μm (5); assuming that SARS-CoV-2 has a similar size, surgical
masks are unlikely to effectively filter this virus.
Of note, we found greater contamination on the outer than the inner mask surfaces.
Although it is possible that virus particles may cross from the inner to the outer surface
because of the physical pressure of swabbing, we swabbed the outer surface before the inner
surface. The consistent finding of virus on the outer mask surface is unlikely to have been
caused by experimental error or artifact. The mask's aerodynamic features may explain this
finding. A turbulent jet due to air leakage around the mask edge could contaminate the
outer surface. Alternatively, the small aerosols of SARS–CoV-2 generated during a
high-velocity cough might penetrate the masks. However, this hypothesis may only be valid
if the coughing patients did not exhale any large-sized particles, which would be expected
to be deposited on the inner surface despite high velocity. These observations support
the importance of hand hygiene after touching the outer surface of masks.
This experiment did not include N95 masks and does not reflect the actual transmission
of infection from patients with COVID-19 wearing different types of masks. We do not know
whether masks shorten the travel distance of droplets during coughing. Further study is
needed to recommend whether face masks decrease transmission of virus from asymptomatic
individuals or those with suspected COVID-19 who are not coughing.
In conclusion, both surgical and cotton masks seem to be ineffective in preventing the
dissemination of SARS–CoV-2 from the coughs of patients with COVID-19 to the
environment and external mask surface.
A powerful California union that claimed to have discovered 39 million masks for healthcare workers
fighting the novel coronavirus was duped in an elaborate scam uncovered by FBI investigators, the U.S.
attorney's office said Friday.
U.S. Atty. Scott Brady
of the Western District of Pennsylvania said FBI agents and prosecutors stumbled onto the arrangement
while looking into whether they could intercept the masks for the Federal Emergency Management Agency
under the Defense Production Act.
The federal government
has been
quietly
seizing supplies across the country, taking the orders placed by hospitals and clinics and not
publicly reporting where the products are being routed.
But in this case, there
was no warehouse, and there were no masks to seize.
"When cuttlefish is in danger, it spits its ink to blacken the water and took the
opportunity to take flight. It is a well known tactic of some political elites and western
cultural. "They wanted to simply be attributed to China the responsibility for their own
inability to cope with the epidemic and the multiple tragedies that followed, and so," to
whiten completely. "
By the time I finished my text, I discovered a report on the Net. On 8 April, the
academic journal world-renowned, PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) has
published an article co-written by academics in British and German entitled network
Analysis the phylogenetic genomes of SARS-CoV-2.
The first author of the article is Dr. Peter Forster of the University of Cambridge.
According to the study, the researchers classified the new coronavirus in three types (A,
B, and C) according to their development.
The type A is the closest of the virus extracts of the bat and pangolin. It is the one
most frequently identified among hiv-infected patients in the United States and Australia.
That is, what researchers call " the root of the epidemic ".
The strains of type B are variants of the type A and are mainly present in China. Those
that are spreading on a large scale in Europe are those of the type C. Unfortunately, it
appears that the results of the research of Dr Peter Forster are not interested in the
western mainstream media.
The graphs show the normal mortality rates in the England and Wales and in New York City
and the current deviations from it. The flu does not create such graphs. Nor do the
lock-downs.
I've got a nice bridge for sale, B, 2000 miles long and entirely made of NYT articles and
twitter tweets.
The Twitter chart leaves the impression that the number of deaths suddenly soared up
almost vertically by around 5500 just in the last few days ...
Good panic porn stuff that. Also take note of what sort of people appear in that thread -
it is not a list of nobodies!
But wait - look more closely! That upturn is for week 14 - the week ending 3rd April,
already 12 days ago. You can see the release of the data by the Office for National
Statistics
here (there is no more recent data released by ONS)
As soon as you see the real data released by the ONS you will immediately see that the
cited twitter is blatant fake news!
That chart is specifically constructed to deceive. No actual cited figures, no actual
dates, no links to the real data - just pure panic porn. Why not cite the specific dates
covered? Because that would raise immediate suspicion with that sudden spurt, because it does
not correspond to previously available figures. Why not cite the specific figures in the
tweet? Because then it would be immediately obvious that this is fake news. Why not explain
the cause of the strange shape of the graph? Because that would give the whole game away.
So what do you see when you look at the real data released by ONS, instead of the
fake news in that twitter?
1) Total deaths registered in week 14 16387
2) Increase over week 13 5246
3) Increase over 5-year average for week 14 6082
*** BUT ***
4) Note that these figures are not the deaths which occurred in week 14, they are the deaths
which were registered in week 14, irrespective of when the deaths actually occurred
(registration is often delayed)
5) Note the warning given on that page: "Please note, where Easter falls in previous years
will have an impact on the five-year average used for comparison"
6) 3475 deaths in week 14 " mentioned novel coronavirus (COVID-19)" on the death
certificate - NOTE - this is not the cause of death specified on the death certificate!!!
7) 539 deaths in week 13 " mentioned novel coronavirus (COVID-19)" on the death
certificate
8) But wait - 3475 is only about half the alleged excess deaths, and these
are not even the deaths caused by covid-19 (see below) these are only the deaths where
covid-19 "happens" to have been tested positive (car accident, for example!)
Look further!
9) Look at the row "Deaths where the underlying cause was respiratory disease (ICD-10
J00-J99)" under official WHO standards, that is the broad category under which the covid-19
deaths are to be listed, if it is considered by the doctor to be the cause of death.
The row gives figures for each week of 2020 as follows (from weeks 1 to 14 in sequence):
2141 2477 2188 1893 1746 1572 1602 1619 1546 1581 1492 1515 1534 2106
VOILA!
This category - which is the actual recorded cause of death - includes covid-19
deaths, but it is a broad category of respiratory-related deaths which also includes many
deaths which have nothing whatsoever to do with covid-19. Those 2141, 2477 and 2188 deaths
registered in each of the first 3 weeks of 2020 were before there was even a single death
from covid-19 in the UK! The average of the first 13 weeks is 1762, and the value for week 14
(2106) is only 344 more than that!
Also note that the deaths which "mention" covid-19 are 1369 greater (including car
accidents, unrelated illness, etc) than the number of deaths caused by respiratory
illnesses (including Covid-19), which already includes another 1500 to 1700 deaths not
caused by covid-19!
This spurt of extra deaths registered in week 14 most certainly does not represent a
sudden spurt of genuine covid-19 deaths - that is conclusively proven by the row of figures
giving the underlying cause of death for each week's registrations.
If anything, the data may show a sudden spurt of deaths from other causes such as
stress caused by the lockdown, food shortages, money shortages, unexpected homelessness,
non-covid-19 illnesses not treated because the hospitals cancelled appointments and
operations, stress, fear etc.
Such causes probably underlie at least a few of the unaccounted for excess deaths
(conceaveably even most, perhaps), but it is also possible it is simply a statistical
aberration and/or related to delays in registering deaths, including the unspecified effect
of the Easter holidays on death registration. The aberration may also have been deliberate,
to cover up government mishandling of the crisis, or it may result from staff shortages, or
perhaps completely irrelevant reasons - we cannot know without detailed investigation of how
the data were prepared and the patterns of death registration.
What is absolutely certain is that that twitter chart is unmitigated fake news
deliberately designed to deceive .
The NYT is no better - completely non-sensical presentation of the data with no
explanation of the meaning of the non-sensical presentation, deliberately designed to
misrepresent.
Comments, B? Time to reconsider what you are doing?
I've been urging people to look more closely at what is happening, because the magicians
have been very successful with their acts, recently. Things are not as they seem on the
surface - you need to look more carefully at the small print.
That includes the details of lockdowns. Lockdowns kill, when they are done in the
irresponsible and brutal and dishonest way they have been done in the UK and the USA.
China did NOT rely on lockdowns - they relied on an integrated combination of
social distancing (including, where necessary, lockdowns, but mostly not , except in
Hubei Province), tracing, and isolation of those infected or at risk.
Lockdowns as imposed by the UK and the USA are just suicide pacts, as described by
Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, and are ineffective in dealing with covid-19.
"... But it's especially outdoor behavior which gives psychological insight on the pandemic of panic. Yesterday I saw people walking alone on the sidewalk, for example a woman alone walking her dog, wearing masks. Evidently such people have regressed from the germ theory of infection to the miasma theory. They think the very air itself is the source of the bug. ..."
Wearing masks indoors in close quarters seems prudent, even though there's so much
conflicting evidence and it's just as likely they're a stifling version of a rabbit's foot as
that they confer any real protection.
But it's especially outdoor behavior which gives psychological insight on the pandemic
of panic. Yesterday I saw people walking alone on the sidewalk, for example a woman alone
walking her dog, wearing masks. Evidently such people have regressed from the germ theory of
infection to the miasma theory. They think the very air itself is the source of the
bug.
But the guy who instantly became my favorite representative of the whole hysteria (I wish
I had a picture of him) was the idiot I saw perform an act of extremely dangerous jaywalking,
dashing across a busy road with fast oncoming traffic both ways - wearing a mask.
Everyone seems fixated on the virus and how to protect against it. I remind you all of the
famous proverb
"Le microbe c'est rien, le milieu c'est tout" = the microbe is nothing, the
environment is everything.
Environment means the local conditions in the affected body, a combination of immune
system and pre-existing illness.
We are facing a microbe that appears very dangerous in some places with case mortality
10..20% (heavily featured in the media and also in this blog), while in other places it does
no more than a seasonal flu with overall mortality < 0.5%. This leads to two equally
distorted biases: some people see the whole world as disaster area, some say there is no
problem at all. One could question whether it is really the exact same virus, but I'm not
going there.
Actually, with the proverb in mind we should be asking: what are the local conditions in
the hotspots, what has weakened people's immune system in these places, and what kind of
precondition exists there but does not exist in general. In simple words: why here and not
there?
Not asking this question and focusing only on an alleged "killer virus" means you see a
distorted picture and you would tend to roll out the same drastic protection lockdown
measures everywhere, which suffocates the economy and culture unnecessarily and creates
massive collateral. I'm in favor of a proportional response focusing on the hotspots, and
otherwise teach people how to strengthen their immune system and protect themselves
(voluntarily) if they see the need - of course they must have the means made available.
Known factors weakening the immune system and/or lungs:
1) Poor diet – the junk food (fast food, canned food, microwaved food) so typical of
US and GB city dwellers. Without the necessary high-quality nutrition the immune system can
only be weak. Natural vitamins and essential nutrients go very far in terms of virus
protection.
2) Air pollution – Lombardia (Bergamo in particular) and NYC for example both suffer
from high air pollution, and particularly in Manhattan the 9/11 event released a huge
cloud of finest
asbestos dust which caused a wave of lung cancer in the region and a lung precondition
for everyone who was exposed at the time.
3) Negative emotions – intense anger and fear can reduce immune activity by 50% for
several hours, as measured by IgA in the saliva. Likewise, positive emotions strengten it.
Media have been feeding us shock and awe and disaster 24/7 for weeks now, you think that has
no effect, think again. Check the amazing research done by HeartMath institute . Also, forced isolation and contact
deprevation is wreaking havoc with people who love company or have psychic preconditions.
4) Radiation – there are hundreds of scientific papers on the non-thermal effect of
low-energy microwave radiation on our physiology at cellular level, usually this medical
research is ignored. An extensive linked collection is available by
diagnose:funk (a German self-help society involving many M.D.s). Immune suppression is
one of the effects. Where the COVID19 death toll is very high you have a dense WiFi and 4G
coverage and yes, typically 5G pilot installations also exist. Most young people who died
from COVID19 were working in IT companies and thus had very high exposure.
5) Vaccination – a vaccine protects from one specific virus but is known to weaken
the immune system otherwise. North Italy is among the regions with the highest vaccination
rate on this globe.
Two coffee filters
Two to three feet of craft ribbon or string
Tape
Keep the coffee filters nested. Place them with the cup side down.
Fold the bottom edges of the mask up about an inch (approximately 2-3 cm). Fold the top edge
about a half inch (or about 1 cm).
Then fold the top over another half inch. This will make the top part of the mask slightly
stiffer so it will hold the bend over your nose better.
Place the ribbon in the top and bottom troughs formed by the folded edges of the coffee
filters. Tape the folded edges of the filters down to hold the ribbon in place.
Loop the ribbon over one ear and tie the free ends of the ribbon over the other ear to hold
the mask in place over your face. Use a vertical piece of tape on the mask over each cheek to
fit the mask to your face once you have put it on.
This mask will not stop lone viruses from getting through because the coffee filter is too
porous. It will tend to block large droplets from coughing or sneezing. Droplets can contain
huge numbers of viruses and be very infectious.
This mask is not nearly as good as a surgical mask, but better than nothing. It is much
easier to wear a mask like this than to walk around holding a tissue in front of your face.
I found that I am sensitive to the odor of cheap masking tape but the cellophane tape was OK
for me. Masks should be tested at home for comfort and allergens before trying to use them.
The coffee filters should be thrown away after the mask in used. Washing hands with soap and
warm water will destroy the virus, so it is important to wash your hands after handling used
masks. The roll of ribbon was 47 cents so this is not too expensive, but I plan on removing the
ribbons and washing them in hot, soapy water to use again.
These coffee filter masks are easy to make, fit fairly comfortably and do not require sewing
skills. Paper towels could probably be used to make masks but I do not use paper towels and am
not about to brave the stores to wrestle other customers for the last roll. This virus can be
destroyed by soap and water, acid and/or heat. It generally only survives a day or two on
paper. If you cannot get enough coffee filters, leaving the mask in a hot car for a day should
kill this virus. The hot-car treatment would not necessarily kill other germs that might be on
the mask though.
Covid-19 Research Updates: Chinese Study Reveals That Hypokalemia Present In Almost All
Covid-19 Patients Source: Covid-19 Research Mar 09, 2020 1 month ago Covid-19 Research : A new research study by researchers
from Wenzhou Medical University in Zhejiang province lead by Dr Don Chen revealed that almost
all Covid-19 patients exhibited hypokalemia and that supplementation with potassium ions was
one of the many factors that assisted in their recovery.
Hypokalemia is best described as low level of potassium (K+) ions in the blood serum. Mild
low potassium does not typically cause symptoms. Symptoms may include feeling tired, leg
cramps, weakness, and constipation. Low potassium also increases the risk of an abnormal heart
rhythm, which is often too slow and can cause cardiac arrest.
It was found that as the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus attacks human cells via the ACE2
(Angiotensin- converting enzyme-2) receptors, it also attacks the renin–angiotensin
system (RAS), causing low electrolyte levels in particularly potassium ions.
The study involving 175 patients in collaboration with Wenzhou Hospital found that almost
all patients exhibited hypokalemia and for those who already had hypokalemia, the situation
even drastically worsened as the disease progressed.
However, it was found from the study that patients responded well to potassium ion
supplements and had a better chance of recovery.
The researchers noted that the end of urine K+ loss indicates a good prognosis and may be a
reliable as a sensitive biomarker directly reflecting the end of adverse effect on RAS
system.
However, doctors at various hospitals in Wuhan, Shanghai and Guangdong have witnessed
similar occurrences and also found that potassium ion supplementation helped patients towards
recovery.
For the latest on Covid-19 research developments, keep checking at: Thailand Medical
News
DIY Isopod with Negative Pressure and Air Scrubber
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Maisonneuve says:
March 25, 2020 at 1:30 am Hello,
This analysis is well done, as it's a very poor paper with plenty of conflicts of
interests. The French context goes beyond the article. Too many non-scientists, mainly
politicians, give opinions on radios and televisions. A well-known politician from Nice
(Estrosi) took chloroquine for his coronavirus. He was cured in a few days without
hospitalization.
He gave interviews to explain that chloroquine was effective he is not the
only politician with a media opinion on this treatment. Politicians and pseudo-science
journalists comment on D Raoult's excellence, based only on the number of publications.
In
March 2020, D Raoult co-signed 5 papers in the International Journal of Antimicrobiol
Agents ..
There are too many fights in France about this publication, and the message that it is bad
is not heard by the media.
I suggest to read the 2012 D Raoult portrait in Science entitled 'Sound and fury in the
microbiology lab'
The ruins of Mary McClellan Hospital stand on hill overlooking the village of Cambridge, New
York, in what was a "flyover" corner of the country until the planes stopped flying. The
hospital cornerstone was laid July 4 1917. The USA had entered the war against Germany a few
months earlier. The "Spanish" flu pandemic kicked off in January, 1918. The hospital opened in
January 1919. The flu burned out a year later. The hospital shut down for good in 2003.
I've lived around here for decades and never actually got a look at the place until I went
up there on a blustery spring Saturday before Easter to look around. I like to read landscapes
and the human imprint upon them. This one is a ghost story, not just of the bygone souls who
came and went here, but of an entire society, the nation that we used to be and stopped being
not so long ago.
This is the old main building today. It's astounding how quickly buildings begin to rot when
the human life within them is gone. The style was Beaux Arts Institutional, seen everywhere
across America in that period in schools, libraries, museums, and hospitals, an austere
neoclassicism that radiated decorum in a confident and well-run society – because
that is what we were then. Note especially, the entrance and the beautiful bronze marquee above
it. The message is this: You enter through a portal of beauty to a place of hope and trust.
This is Mary McClellan Hospital not long after it opened.
The site itself, on its hill, with views east across the state line to the Green Mountains,
speaks of authority and command.
The America of 1919 was a deeply hierarchical society. Today we regard hierarchy as a bane
and a curse. The truth is, it is absolutely required if you expect to live in a well-run
society, and proof of that is the disordered mess of bureaucratic irresponsibility we live in
today, with virtually every institution failing – well before the Covid-19 virus arrived
on the scene - and nobody called to account for anything anymore.
Hierarchy must be fit to scale to function successfully. In small institutions like this,
everybody knows who is responsible for what. That's what makes authority credible.
These are the ruins of the nursing school associated with the hospital (and also associated
with Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, 25 miles west).
The nurses lived here, in Florence Nightingale Hall.
In the early 20th century, the profession favored young, unmarried women whose allegiance
and attention to the patients would not be distracted by the needs of a family.
Was that exploitation? Or was it simply an intelligent way to organize a hospital
subculture? The nurses lived here very comfortably. The institution cared for them,
literally.
There's no record available of what exactly these buildings were for. The one in the
foreground has a cut stone sign that says "The Junior" on it. I infer that this may have been
where a couple of young, staff, resident physicians lived, young men probably, just out of
their internships, close at hand and on-call for emergencies. The building in the background is
a rather grand country cottage, possibly the residence of the chief surgeon or the hospital
director. The hospital was, after all, a community unto itself, and it was important that
authority have a visible presence there all the time. Both buildings display architectural
grace-notes that humanized and dignify that resident authority. We no longer believe in
grace-notes for the things we build, so is it surprising that we live in a graceless
society?
This is the power plant for the whole operation, on the premises, ensuring that the
electricity would stay on at all times. In the early 20th century, electric power was the new
sine qua non of advanced civilization. America's rural electrification program really didn't
get underway until the 1930s, so it's likely that many of the farms outside the village were
not hooked up to a grid. The hospital generators must have been driven by coal, or perhaps oil.
Somebody had to attend to all that machinery. The laundry – hospitals produce a lot
of that – was also on-premises, as was all the meal preparation. The hospital maintained
a large garden to furnish some of the food. All these tasks required crews of people working
purposefully and getting paid. The hospital was a complex organism, a world within a nation
within a world.
Things rise and self-organize beautifully into fully-formed systems and after while they run
down, even while they over-grow; authority starts working more and more for its own sake and
its own benefit; hierarchy breaks down into disrespect, lack of trust, fear; and then society
loses its vital institutions, which is exactly what happened at Mary McClellan Hospital in
little Cambridge, New York.
It dwindled and then quickly collapsed. The town lost a part of itself, the part that
welcomed people in a particular kind of trouble and cared for them, as it cared for those who
did the caring. By the way, in 1919, a private room was $7-a-day (a bed on a ward was $3).
Imagine that! The town also lost a vital component of its economy. And that was all of-a-piece
with its decline into the flyover place it became in our time.
American health care, as we call it today, and for all its high-tech miracles, has evolved
into one of the most atrocious rackets the world has ever seen. By racket, I mean an enterprise
organized explicitly to make money dishonestly. This is what we've become, and the fact that we
seem to be okay with that tells you more about what we have become. The advent of Covid-19,
along with the extreme economic disorders it has triggered, will probably be the beginning of
the end of that racket. We have no idea how medicine will re-organize itself, but I'd guess
that it will happen at a much more primitive scale – because that's usually what
happens when human societies overshoot badly. Alas, history is not exactly symmetrical.
But read these photos and meditate on what we were once capable of putting together in this
land, and maybe you will find some clues about what was truly admirable about the American
condition before we stopped caring.
Beijing had shut down a branch of its closely watched global remdesivir that was studying
patients in 'severe' condition in Wuhan. After showing early promise, the study was allegedly
shuttered by the government because there weren't enough patients who qualified.
For the sickest patients,
infection with the new coronavirus
is proving to be a full-body assault, causing damage well
beyond the lungs. And
even after patients who become severely ill have recovered and
cleared the virus, physicians have begun seeing evidence of the infection's lingering effects
.
In a
study
posted this week, scientists in China examined the blood test results of 34 COVID-19
patients over the course of their hospitalization.
In those who survived mild and severe
disease alike, the researchers found that many of the biological measures had "failed to return
to normal."
-
Los
Angeles Times
One alarming observation have been test results indicating that
recovered patients
continue to have impaired liver function
after patients had been cleared for discharge.
Another concern from cardiologists
are the immediate effects of COVID-19 on the heart
,
raising questions over how long the damage may last. As the
Times
notes, "In an
early study
of COVID-19 patients in
China,
heart failure was seen in nearly 12% of those who survived, including in some who
had shown no signs of respiratory distress.
"
Heart damage can easily occur when the lungs cannot deliver sufficient oxygen to the body,
however
when this happens without respiratory distress, "doctors have to wonder whether
they have underestimated COVID-19's ability to wreak lasting havoc,"
according to the
report.
"COVID-19 is not just a respiratory disorder," according to Yale cardiologist Dr. Harlan
Krumholtz, who added "It can affect the heart, the liver, the kidneys, the brain, the endocrine
system and the blood system."
Of course,
there are no long-term survivors
of the disease - which was unknown
to mainstream science less than five months ago. Even its first victims in China are just over
three months removed from their ordeal, while physicians swamped with the ongoing pandemic have
been too busy treating critical patients to closely monitor the some 370,000 patients classified as
'recovered.'
Still,
doctors are worried that in its wake, some organs whose function has been
knocked off kilter will not recover quickly, or completely
. That could leave patients
more vulnerable for months or years to come.
"
I think there will be long-term
sequelae
," said Yale cardiologist
Dr.
Joseph Brennan
, using the medical term for a disease's downstream effects.
"I don't know that for real," he cautioned. "But
this disease is so overwhelming"
that some of the recovered are likely to face ongoing health concerns
, he said. -
Los
Angeles Times
Meanwhile,
questions have emerged over whether COVID-19 actually leaves the body
- possibly lying dormant for years only to re-emerge later in a different form.
Several viruses already do this such as chicken pox - which can come back as shingles, and
hepatitis B, which can cause liver cancer years after the primary infection clears up. Ebola is
another example - hiding in the vitreous fluid of victims' eyeballs in some cases, causing
blindness or impaired vision in 40% of survivors.
Of course, then there's
the lungs
- which the novel coronavirus tends to target
first. In another closely related coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS),
around 1/3 of recovered patients had impaired lung function after three years
- though
they largely resolved over the next 15 years. And, 1/3 of those who survived Middle East
Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) had permanent scarring of the lungs known as fibrosis.
According to a mid-March publication which tracked a dozen COVID-19 patients discharged from a
Hong Kong hospital, two or three reported having difficulties with activities they had no problem
performing in the past.
Dr. Owen Tsang Tak-yin, director of infectious diseases at Princess Margaret Hospital in Hong
Kong, told reporters that some patients
"might have around a drop of 20 to 30% in lung
function" after their recovery.
Citing the history of lasting lung damage in SARS and MERS patients, a team led by UCLA
radiologist Melina Hosseiny is recommending that
patients who have recovered from
COVID-19 get follow-up lung scans "to evaluate long-term or permanent lung damage including
fibrosis."
As doctors try to assess organ damage after COVID-19 recovery, there's a key complication:
Patients with disorders that affect the heart, liver, blood and lungs face a higher risk
of becoming very sick with COVID-19 in the first place
. That makes it difficult to
distinguish COVID-19 after-effects from the problems that made patients vulnerable to begin with
-- especially so early in the game. -
Los
Angeles Times
And while doctors and researchers are still discovering COVID-19's secrets, what they do know is
that when patients show signs of infection,
several organ systems are affected
-
and that when one begins to fail, others often follow. This is all wrapped in an inflammatory
response, which can pry "plaques and clots from the walls of blood vessels and causing strokes,
heart attacks and venous embolisms," according to the report.
Dr. Krumholtz, the cardiologist, says the infection can cause damage to the heart and the sac
which encases it, causing heart failure and arrhythmias in some patients during the acute phase.
This means that former COVID-19 patients can become
lifelong cardiology patients
after they 'recover' from the primary illness.
What's worse, blood abnormalities that can make clots more likely can persist as well.
In a
case report
published this week in the New England Journal of Medicine,
Chinese
doctors described a patient with severe COVID-19, clots evident in several parts of his body,
and immune proteins called
antiphospholipid antibodies
.
A hallmark of an autoimmune disease called
antiphospholipid syndrome
, these antibodies sometimes occur as a passing response to an
infection. But sometimes they linger, causing dangerous blood clots in the legs, kidneys, lungs
and brain. In pregnant women, antiphospholipid syndrome also can result in miscarriage and
stillbirth. -
Los
Angeles Times
Yale's Dr. Brennan says that at the end of the day, we just don't have enough data to make a
long term prognosis for coronavirus patients.
The text message from Ai Fen (艾芬), the director of the emergency department of
Wuhan Central Hospital, agreeing to be interviewed, was sent at 5 am on March 1. About half an
hour later, at 5.32 am on March 1, her colleague and director of thyroid and breast surgery
Jiang Xueqing, who was infected with new coronavirus pneumonia, died. Two days later, Mei
Zhongming, deputy director of ophthalmology at the hospital, died. He and Li Wenliang were in
the same department.
As of March 9, 2020, 4 members of the medical staff of Wuhan Central Hospital have died of
new coronavirus pneumonia infection. Since the outbreak, this hospital, located just a few
kilometers away from the Huanan Seafood Market, has become one of the hospitals in Wuhan with
the largest number of employees that are infected. According to media reports, more than 200
employees in the hospital were infected, including three deputy deans and multiple working
department directors. Multiple department directors are currently being maintained with ECMO
[extracorporeal membrane oxygenation].
The shadow of death hangs over this, Wuhan's largest tertiary hospital. A doctor told People
[a news site – EB] that in the social media group of hospital staff, almost no one spoke
publicly; they mourned and discussed in private.
This tragedy could have been prevented. On December 30, 2019, Ai Fen received a virus test
report for a patient with an unknown pneumonia. She circled the word "SARS coronavirus" in red.
When asked by a college classmate who is also a doctor, she took a picture of the report and
circulated it. That night, the report spread in doctor circles in Wuhan, and those who
forwarded the report included the eight doctors who were disciplined by the police.
This caused trouble for Ai Fen. As the original source of the information, she was
interviewed by the hospital disciplinary committee and suffered an "unprecedented and severe
reprimand"; it was said that she was acting unprofessionally by creating false rumors
(谣).
In the afternoon of March 2nd, Ai Fen did an interview with People in the Nanjing Road
location of Wuhan Central Hospital. She was sitting alone in the emergency room office. The
emergency department, which had been admitting more than 1,500 patients a day, had returned to
quiet. There was only one tramp lying in the emergency hall.
Some previous reports called Ai Fen "another severely reprimanded female doctor who has
emerged" and some people called her a "whistleblower". Ai Fen corrected this; she said she was
not a whistleblower, but the one who distributed the "whistles".
During the interview, Ai Fen mentioned the word "regret" several times, and said she deeply
regretted that she hadn't continued to whistle resoundingly after she was reprimanded at a
disciplinary review meeting. She has especial regrets when it comes to her deceased coworkers.
"If I knew then what I know now, I wouldn't care about the pressure (from my leader), and I
would [expletive] speak everywhere, all right?"
What have Wuhan Central Hospital and Ai Fen experienced in the past two months or so? The
following is what Ai Fen told us:
An unprecedented reprimand
On December 16, last year, we received a patient at the Nanjing Road emergency department.
They had an inexplicably high fever, and they weren't responding to standard medications, their
body temperature wasn't going down at all. On the 22nd, the patient was transferred to the
respiratory department, a bronchoscopy was done, and bronchoalveolar fluid taken and sent out
for high-throughput genetic sequencing. Afterwards, the coronavirus result was relayed
verbally. At that time, the colleague who was responsible for the patient told me clearly:
"Director [主任] Ai, that person's diagnosis is coronavirus". Later we learned that
the patient worked in the Huanan Seafood Market.
Immediately afterwards, December 27th, another patient arrived at Nanjing Road. He was the
nephew of a doctor in our department. He was in his 40s, without any preexisting conditions.
His lungs were in a terrible state, and his blood oxygen saturation was only 90%. He was under
hospital care for almost 10 days without any improvement, and was admitted to the respiratory
department. A flexible bronchoscopy was also done, and the alveolar lavage fluid sent for
testing.
At noon on December 30th, an old classmate at Tongji (同济) Hospital sent me a
screenshot of a WeChat conversation, which said: "You don't want to go to Huanan [Market] just
now, there are lots of people with high fever " He asked if it was true. At the time, I was
watching a CT [scan] of a typical patient with pulmonary infection on the computer. I sent him
a 11-second video of the CT and told him it was a patient who had come to our emergency
department in the morning, a Huanan Seafood Market case.
Just after 4 pm that day, a colleague showed me a diagnostic report that said: "SARS
coronavirus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, 46 strains of bacteria [菌, bacteria and/or fungi]
which colonize the oral cavity and/or respiratory tract". I read the report very carefully many
times, and the supplementary information read: "SARS coronavirus is a single-stranded
positive-strand RNA virus. The main mode of transmission of the virus is close-range droplet
transmission or contact with respiratory secretions of patients, which can cause an unusual
pneumonia that is highly contagious and can affect multiple organ systems, also known as
atypical pneumonia."
At the time, the diagnostic report scared me, I broke into a cold sweat, this was a
terrifying thing. The patient was admitted to the respiratory department, the situation needed
to be reported to the respiratory department, but to ensure attention, I immediately phoned and
reported it to the hospital's public health division and infectious disease [?院感]
division. At that moment, the director of the respiratory department of our hospital happened
to be passing my office door, someone who had been involved with SARS. I grabbed the director
and said, "We found this in one of the patients in your department." The director took one look
and said it was worrying. I knew the matter was worrying.
After calling the hospital, I also circulated this report to my fellow-learners
(同学[; student or former classmate]). I purposely drew a red circle around the
words "SARS coronavirus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, 46 strains of bacteria [菌, bacteria
and/or fungi] which colonize the oral cavity and/or respiratory tract" to bring the warning to
their attention. I also sent the report to the doctors in the department to warn everyone to
take precautions.
That evening, the message was spread widely; the screenshots of the transmission show the
photos of the report I'd marked with a red circle, including the ones that I later learned that
Li Wenliang passed on to the [chat] group. At the time, I was thinking it might be bad. At
10:20, the hospital passed on a message [reportedly on the Central Hospital WeChat group]. It
was a relayed notification from the city Health Protection Committee
(市卫健委). Their main point was that information on the pneumonia of
unknown cause should not be arbitrarily released, to avoid causing panic among the public; if
panic was caused by information leakage, there would be a thorough investigation
(要追责).
I was very scared at the time and immediately passed this information on to my
fellow-learners. About an hour later, the hospital sent another notice, again stressing that
information the group had on this subject could not be leaked. One day later, at 11:46 pm on
January 1st, the head of the hospital's disciplinary inspection committee sent me a message to
come [for an employee review] the next morning.
I didn't fall asleep that night, I was worried and thought things through over and over
again, but I felt that there are always two sides to everything; even if it had caused adverse
effects, it was not necessarily a bad thing to remind medical staff in Wuhan to take
precautions. At 8 o'clock the next morning, before I finished the shift, I was called in for
the disciplinary review.
In that disciplinary review, I suffered an unprecedented and very severe reprimand.
At that time, the leader of the discussion said, "We can't afford to raise our heads when we
go out for a meeting. The director of XX criticizes our hospital. As the director of the
emergency department of Wuhan Central Hospital, you are a professional, how can there be this
lack of principle, this lack of organizational discipline, this creating and spreading of false
rumours (谣)?" This is the original sentence. So I should go back to the 200-odd people
in the department to convey the news to them verbally, one by one; we can't send information by
WeChat or SMS, we can only talk face-to-face or call, we can't say anything about this
pneumonia, "you can't even tell your own husband", they said
I was utterly stunned. I hadn't been criticized for not working hard, but made to feel that
what I'd done had ruined Wuhan's prospects and its future. I felt strong depair. I am a serious
and hard-working person. I felt that everything I had done was in accordance with the rules and
well-founded. What did I do wrong? After I read the lab result, I had also reported it to the
hospital. My students and my colleagues had communicated among ourselves about how to handle
the condition of a patient, we hadn't given out any of the patient's personal information; this
is equivalent to discussing a medical case among medical students. As a clinical doctor, I
already knew that a very important virus had been found in patients. When other doctors asked,
how could you not say so? This is your instinct as a doctor, right? What did I do wrong? I have
done what a doctor and a person should normally do. I think anyone would do the same.
I was very emotional at the time, saying that I had done this, and it had nothing to do with
the rest of the people; you can just arrest me and jail me. I said that I was not suitable to
continue to work in this position, and I wanted to take a break. The leader did not agree,
saying that this was the time to test me.
I went home that night, I remember it quite clearly, I told my husband just after I walked
in the door, if something goes wrong, you must care for and raise the child -- because my
second treasure is still very young, only just over 1 year old. At the time, my husband was
perplexed by this. I didn't explain.
On January 20th, after Zhong Nanshan [prominent Chinese epidemiologist] told people [about
the epidemic], I told my husband what had happened that day. In the interim, I just warned my
family not to go to crowded places, and to wear surgical face masks when going out.
Peripheral departments
Many people worried that I was among the eight people who were admonished [by police]. In
fact, I wasn't warned by the Public Security Bureau. Later, a good friend asked me, are you a
whistleblower? I said that I am not a whistleblower, I am the one who sent the whistle.
But that disciplinary review hit me hard, it affected me very severely. When I came back, I
could see that everyone's morale had collapsed. We had been working with such drive and
dedication, and doing our jobs conscientiously. Everyone kept asking me questions, and I
couldn't answer.
All I could do was get the emergency department to focus on protection. We have over 200
people in the emergency department. From January 1st, I asked everyone to strengthen their
protection. Everyone must wear masks, hats, and use gloves (用手快消).
I remember one day, there was a nurse who did not wear a mask during the shift; I scolded him
then and there, saying "Don't come to work without a mask in the future".
On January 9th, while off-shift, I saw a patient coughing on the pre-examination table. From
that day on, I asked everyone to put a mask on both the patient and on anyone seeing the
patient, one for each person; I said, don't try to save money at this time. At the time, they
were still telling us that there was no human-to-human transmission, and I want to emphasize
here that wearing a mask to strengthen protection was a big issue.
That time was really depressing and very painful. Some doctors proposed wearing and out
layer of isolation clothing. The hospital's internal operations committee
(医院里开会) said they wouldn't allow it; they said that wearing
isolation clothing would cause panic. I asked the people in the department to wear an isolation
gown inside a white coat. This was out-of-specification and ridiculous.
We watched more and more patients arrive, as the radius of the infection area became larger
and larger. At first, they might be connected to the Huanan Seafood Market; then it spread, and
the radius became larger and larger. Many of the cases were family-transmitted. Among the first
seven people, there was a case of infection in which the mother had given the son food. The
clinic [dispensary? 诊所] boss got sick, infected by the patients who came for
injections. It was very serious, whether they got infected or not. I knew there must be
human-to-human transmission. If there was no human-to-human transmission, well, the Huanan
Seafood Market had been closed on January 1, so why were there more and more patients?
I often thought, if only they hadn't reprimanded me like that, if they'd asked for details
calmly, and then asked other respiratory experts to communicate with them, maybe the situation
would be better, and I could at least communicate a bit more in the hospital. If everyone had
been as alert on January 1, there would not be so many tragedies.
On the afternoon of January 3, in the Nanjing Road Hospital, doctors of urology gathered to
review the work of the senior director, 43-year-old Dr. Hu Weifeng (胡卫峰),
who is now in emergency care; on the afternoon of January 8, the Nanjing Road Hospital Director
[of thyroid and breast surgery] Jiang Xueqing (江学庆) also organized the
first Wuhan City breast disease patient recovery get-together
(武汉市甲乳患者康复联欢会),
on the 22nd floor. On the morning of January 11, the department reported to me that Hu Ziwei
(胡紫薇), a nurse in the emergency room of the emergency department, was
infected. She'd be the first infected nurse in the central hospital. First-off, I called the
Chief of the Medical Department to report it, and then the hospital held an emergency meeting.
At the meeting we were instructed to change the report of "double lung infection, viral
pneumonia?" to "scattered infection of both lungs"
("两下肺感染，病毒性肺炎？"
to "两肺散在感染"). At the weekly meeting of January 16th,
a deputy dean was still saying, "Everyone must have a little medical common sense, and certain
senior doctors should not go about scaring people." Another leader spoke, and continued,
"Human-to-human transmission is not possible; it can be prevented, treated and controlled." One
day later, on January 17, Jiang Xueqing was hospitalized, and 10 days later he was intubated
and put on ECMO.
The toll at the central hospital is so large, and it's connected to the lack of transparency
for our medical staff. If you look at the people who fell ill, the emergency department and the
respiratory department suffered less heavily, because we had a sense of the need for
protection, and we knew we should quickly rest and get treatment as soon as we got sick. The
worst cases are in the peripheral departments; Li Wenliang was an ophthalmologist, and Jiang
Xueqing is a nail specialist.
Jiang Xueqing was really a very good person, with excellent medical skills. He held one of
the two Chinese Physician Awards in the hospital. And yet we were neighbors, we were a unit;
I'm located on the 40th floor, he was on the 30th floor, our working relationship was very
good, but because I am too busy at work, I only met him during meetings and hospital
activities. He was a workaholic, always either in the operating room or at the clinic. No one
would go to tell him specifically, "Director Jiang, you have to pay attention and wear a mask".
He didn't have the time and energy to inquire about these things, and he must have brushed it
off with: "What's the matter? It's pneumonia." This was what people in that department told
me.
If these doctors had been warned in time, perhaps this day wouldn't have come. So that's
why, as one closely involved, I regret what I did. If I knew then what I know now, I wouldn't
have cared about the reprimand, I would have [expletive] spoken of it everywhere, to everyone,
wouldn't I?
Although I worked in the same hospital as Li Wenliang (李文亮) did before
he died, I didn't know him, because the hospital had over 4,000 people on staff and was usually
busy. The night before his death, the director of the ICU called me to borrow a cardiac press
(心脏按压器; CPR device?) from the emergency department, and said
it was Li Wenliang who was going to be resuscitated. The news shocked me. I do not understand
everything that happened to Li Wenliang, but could his condition have been affected by his
emotional state after being reprimanded? I have to ask, with my experience; I felt it
myself.
Later, when things got to this point, it proved that Li Wenliang was right. I can understand
his state of mind very easily. It could be my own. I don't feel excitement or happiness, but
regret. Regret that I didn't continue to shout out loudly at the beginning, when people
intervened and scolded us. I often find myself thinking, if only we could turn back time, and
do it right.
Just surviving is good
On the night before the city was shut down on January 23, a friend from the relevant
department called to ask me about the true situation of emergency patients in Wuhan. I said,
are you asking in a private or public capacity? He said, private. [I said,] I will tell you the
truth when I speak on my behalf: On January 21, our emergency department saw 1,523 patients,
three times as many as usual, of which 655 had fever.
The situation in the emergency department during that time will never be forgotten by those
who experienced it, it completely changes your outlook on life.
If this is a war, the emergency department is the front line. But at the time, the inpatient
wards were saturated, and basically none of the patients were accepted, and the ICU was
resolutely refused to accept them. They said that there were uninfected patients in them, and
they became contaminated as soon as they entered. More patients kept rushing in to the
emergency department, and the inpatient beds were not open, so they all piled up in the
emergency department. Patients queued for a few hours to see a doctor. We couldn't take any
time off work at all. There was no distinction between the fever clinic and the emergency
department. The hall was full of patients. The emergency room, the IV room, everywhere was
filled with patients.
Another patient's family came in, wanting a bed for their dad, who couldn't make it in from
the car, because the underground garage was closed at the time, and the car couldn't get in. I
couldn't do anything about that, but I ran to the car with people and equipment. I saw
immediately that he was already dead. What can you say, it's very difficult to bear. The man
died in the car, he didn't even get out of the car.
There was also an old man, his wife had just died at Jinyintan Hospital, her son and
daughter were infected, and she was given an IV, her son-in-law was caring for her. As soon as
I saw that she was very ill, I contacted the respiratory department to admit her to the
hospital. Her son-in-law was obviously a cultured person. He came over and wished to thank the
doctor and so on. As a result, she died. It only took a few seconds, but it was a delay of a
few seconds. That quick "thank you" weighs heavily on me.
And yet there were many people who sent their families to the ward
(监护室[; guardianship room]? in the sense of trustee), and that's the last
time you'l see them, you'll never see them again.
I remember when I came to work on the morning of the Chinese New Year [Friday, January 24,
2020]. I said that we'd take a picture to commemorate the New Year. I also sent it to a circle
of friends. No one wished anyone a happy new year that day. At the time, just surviving was
good.
In the past, if you made a small mistake, for example, if you didn't give an injection in
time, the patient might still be in trouble. Now there's no one, no one is to raise it with
you, no-one is going to take issue with it. Everyone's overwhelmed by the sudden onslaught, we
work blindly.
The patients died, and it was rare to see family members weeping and grieving, because there
were too many, too many. Some family members didn't say "Doctor, please save my family", but
said to the doctor, "Right, let's do this quickly"; it came to that. Everyone was afraid of
being infected.
The queue at the fever clinic was 5 hours long, every day. A woman waiting in line
collapsed, a woman in a leather coat, with a purse and high heels, very carefully dressed. A
middle-aged woman; no one dared to step forward to help her, and she lay on the ground for a
long time. I had to call the nurse and doctor to help her.
On the morning of January 30, I came to work. The son of a white-haired old man had died at
the age of 32. He stared blankly at the doctor giving him the death certificate. There are no
tears at all, how can one cry? There's no way to cry. From the style of his clothing, the old
man might be a rural migrant worker, there's no way to be sure. Without a diagnosis, his son
became a death certificate.
This is what I want to call for. The patients who died in the emergency department were all
undiagnosed, and their causes of death could not be confirmed. After this epidemic has passed,
I hope to give an explanation and give their families some comfort. Our patients wake
compassion, a great deal of compassion.
"Lucky"
Having been a doctor for so many years, I always felt that no difficulty could overwhelm me,
not with my experience and personality.
When I was nine, my father died of gastric cancer. At that time, I thought of growing up to
be a doctor, to save the lives of others. Later, when I did my the college entrance
examination, all my preferences were in medicine, and I finally got to go to Tongji Medical
College. After graduating from medical college in 1997, I went to the Central Hospital. I
previously worked in cardiovascular medicine, and I became the director of the emergency
department in 2010.
I feel the emergency department is one of my children. I built it up, I nurtured a
tight-knit group, which really doesn't make this situation easier, but it's what makes this
group such a treasure; I really cherish this team.
A few days ago, one of my nurses sent a message to a friends group saying "I really miss the
old big busy emergency department"; that kind of busy and this kind of busy are totally
different concepts.
Before this epidemic hit, our emergency department dealt with myocardial infarctions,
cerebral infarctions, gastrointestinal bleeding, trauma and so on. That kind of busy gives a
sense of accomplishment, it has a clear purpose, there's a smooth flow of procedures for all
the various types of patients. There are very mature procedures, there's not a single wasted
step, what to do next is not a problem. But in this time there were so many critically ill
patients whom we had no way to deal with and who couldn't be admitted to hospital, and our
medical staff was still at risk. This kind of busyness is desperate, it's deeply
distressing.
One day at 8 in the morning, a young doctor in our department sent me a WeChat, and it was
quite personal, saying they wouldn't come to work that day, not well. Since what we do here, if
someone is not well, they need to tell me about it in advance; if they tell me at 8 o'clock,
where do I go to find someone? The doctor lost their temper with me in WeChat, and said that a
large number of highly suspect cases were put back into the community by the emergency
department I led. We understand that this is sin! I understand this person, because this is a
doctor's professional ethics, but I was also anxious, and I said you can denounce me, but tell
me, what would you do if you were the director of the emergency department?
Later, the doctor came back to work after a few days of rest. The doctor didn't say that
they feared death or feared harm; no, they were affected the conditions; suddenly having to
deal with so many patients at once, they felt utterly overwhelmed.
And the work of the medics, especially for the many medics who came to support us, it was
psychologically unbearable. There were doctors and nurses in tears. Some were crying for
others, others were crying for themselves, because no-one knows when it will be their turn to
become infected.
Around mid-to-late January, the hospital's leaders also became ill, one after another,
including our director of the office and three vice-presidents. The daughter of the Chief of
Medical Services was also ill and resting at home. So basically there was no administration or
management; you just had to fight there, that was the feeling.
The people around me also started to come down with it one by one. On January 18, at 8:30 in
the morning, our first doctor collapsed, saying "I caught it just like the director did", no
fever, did a CT first off, and the lungs had a lump of ground-glass opacification
(坨磨玻璃). Not long after, the duty nurse in charge of the isolation
ward told me they'd fallen ill. That night, our head nurse fell ill. My very real first feeling
at that time was -- good luck, because falling ill early, you could get off the battlefield for
a little bit.
I've been in close contact with these three people. I just work every day with the belief
that I must fall ill. Everyone in the hospital thought I was a miracle. I've thought about it
myself, perhaps it's because I have asthma and I'm using some inhaled hormones, perhaps it
inhibits the deposition of these viruses in the lungs.
I've always felt that the people who work in the emergency department have feelings, too. In
Chinese hospitals, the status of the emergency department is relatively low among the
departments, because everyone thinks that the emergency department is nothing more than a route
into the hospital, it just needs to admit patients. During this epidemic, this sort of neglect
has always been present.
In the early days, they're weren't enough supplies. Sometimes the quality of the protective
clothing assigned to the emergency department was very poor. I was angry when I saw that our
nurses wore such clothes to work and spoke up about it in Zhouhui Qun [a WeChat group for MDs
in that hospital]. After that, many directors gave me all the protective clothing they kept in
their departments.
There were also problems with food. When there are many patients, the management gets
confused. They simply can't think that the emergency department still has to have something to
eat. Many departments had food and drink after shift changeover, they had a big spread, and
here, we had nothing. In the fever clinic's WeChat group, doctors complained: "Our emergency
department has only disposable diapers " We were the front-line response, and we had to deal
with that sort of thing, sometimes it made me really angry.
Our team is really good. Everyone held the line, they were only off work when they were
sick. More than 40 people in our emergency department were infected. I built a group of all the
sick people, originally called the "Emergency Department Sick
Group"(急诊生病群); the head nurse said that was unlucky, and
changed it to "Emergency Department Re-energizing Group"
(急诊加油群). Even the people who are sick weren't thinking in
terms of despair or blame. They were all very positive, that is, everyone had the attitude that
we needed to help one another to get thorough the crisis together.
These kids, these young people are very good, it's just that they, like me, have to live
with feeling slighted. I hope that after this epidemic, the country will also increase its
investment in emergency departments. In many countries' medical systems, the emergency
department is highly valued.
Unattainable happiness
On February 17th, I received a WeChat message from the old classmate at Tongji Hospital. He
said "Sorry" to me. I said: it's fortunate that you passed the message on and warned some
people in time. If he hadn't passed it on, they might not have Li Wenliang and the eight
others, but people would probably know less.
This time, we had the entire families of three female doctors get infected. Two female
doctors had their father-in-law and mother-in-law infected, and their husbands, and another had
her father, mother, sister, and husband infected, and five close relatives. Everyone thinks
that the virus was discovered so early on, and yet this is the result, it caused us such great
loss, took such a terrible toll.
It took this toll in many different ways, too. In addition to those who died, those who were
sick also suffered.
In our "Emergency Department Re-energizing group", people often exchange physical
conditions. Some people ask: a heart rate that's always 120 beats per minute, does it matter?
Surely it matters, they panic as soon as they move. This will affect them for life, and is
heart failure likely? It's hard to say. In the future, others will be able to go hiking and
traveling, and they might not be able to, all that is possible.
And Wuhan. You said that our Wuhan is a lively place; now it's very, very quiet on the
streets. Many things can't be bought and we have to support the whole country. A few days ago,
a nurse of a medical team in Guangxi suddenly fell into a coma while at work, and was
resucitated. Her heart restarted, but she is still in a coma. If she hadn't come to work, she
could have had a good time at home, and this kind of thing wouldn't have happened. So, I think
we owe everyone, really.
Having been through this epidemic, many people in the hospital have been hit hard. Several
medical staff below me have thoughts of resignation, including some backbones of the
department. Everyone's previous ideas, all the things everyone knows about this profession,
they're are inevitably a little shaken -- it's that you work so hard, isn't it? Just like Jiang
Xueqing, he worked too hard, he was too good to the patients, he was doing surgery every year
during [Chinese] New Year. Today, someone sent a WeChat written by Jiang Xueqing's daughter,
saying that her father's time was all given to his patients.
Myself, I've had countless thoughts of going back home to be a housewife. After the epidemic
began, I basically didn't go home, I lived separately from my husband. My sister helped take
care of my children at home. My second treasure didn't recognize me, didn't react to me when he
saw me on video. I felt very lost. It wasn't easy for me to give birth to this second child. He
was 10 kg at birth. I had to wean him abruptly -- when I made that decision, that was hard for
me to do. My husband told me that these things happen in life, and you're not only a
participant, you're also choosing to lead the team to fight this epidemic; that's also a very
meaningful act, and when everything returns to normal for everyone, then you'll remember; it's
a valuable experience to have had.
The leader (领导) talked to me on the morning of February 21st. Actually, I
would have liked to ask a few questions, such as, do you think that that criticism was wrong
that day? I hoped to be given an apology. But I dared not ask. No one said sorry to me on any
occasion. I still feel that these events are an even clearer demonstation of why each person
should stick to their own independent ideas, regardless, because if someone wants to stand up
and tell the truth, there must be someone, and the world must hear a dissenting voice,
right?
I'm Wuhanese, who doesn't love their own city? Now we remember what extravagant happiness we
enjoyed in the most ordinary life. I now feel that holding the baby, going out to play with him
on a slide, or going out to watch a movie with my husband, even things we never did all that
often in the past, they are now all a kind of happiness, an unattainable happiness.
Complete disinfecting protocol includes four steps: Pre-cleaning, disinfecting (dwell time),
wiping clean and rinsing with water. "But we're lucky if we get two," meaning dwell time and
wipe-up, said Mark Warner, education manager at the Cleaning Management Institute, a provider
of training and certification for professional cleaning services. Pre-cleaning is most
important on heavily soiled surfaces, because dirt can shield pathogens underneath; it's fine
to use soap and water or a household cleaner. Disinfecting for the proper dwell time, of
course, is nonnegotiable. Wiping afterward is essential because disinfectants can leave a
sticky residue where pathogens can quickly resettle. And rinsing finishes the process.
.... ... ...
Multiple sources give different bleach-to-water ratios for use with regular bleach. The
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that "unexpired bleach will be effective
against coronaviruses" in a 1:48 solution (⅓ cup of bleach per gallon of water, or 4
teaspoons per quart).
Clorox recommends a slightly stronger 1:32 ratio (½ cup per gallon or 2 tablespoons
per quart). Mark Warner recommends a much stronger 1:10 ratio (about 1½ cups per gallon
of water, or about ⅓ cup per quart). Some medical disinfectants are basically the same
solution.
Whichever ratio you use, let it sit on the surface for 10 minutes: Warner told us that this
is the Environmental Protection Agency's guideline for any new or unknown pathogen, and it is
also the dwell time listed for the regular household bleaches on the E.P.A.'s
List N, which means it is approved to eliminate the coronavirus when properly used.
Don't mix up more than you will use within a day or two. Bleach degrades fairly rapidly once
taken from its original storage container, becoming less effective each day
via Gates Expert jacob levitch's twit account:
April 09, 2020 , Gates' Globalist Vaccine Agenda: A Win-Win for Pharma and Mandatory
Vaccination , RFK, Jr, Chairman, Children's Health Defense
[hope you won't mind if i paste it all in, CB.]
'Vaccines, for Bill Gates, are a strategic philanthropy that feed his many
vaccine-related businesses (including Microsoft's ambition to control a global vaccination
ID enterprise) and give him dictatorial control of global health policy.
Gates' obsession with vaccines seems to be fueled by a conviction to save the world with
technology.
Promising his share of $450 million of $1.2 billion to eradicate Polio, Gates took
control of India's National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (NTAGI) which mandated
up to 50 doses (Table 1) of polio vaccines through overlapping immunization programs to
children before the age of five. Indian doctors blame the Gates campaign for a devastating
non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (NPAFP) epidemic that paralyzed 490,000 children beyond
expected rates between 2000 and 2017. In 2017, the Indian government dialed back Gates'
vaccine regimen and asked Gates and his vaccine policies to leave India. NPAFP rates
dropped precipitously.
In 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) reluctantly admitted that the global
explosion in polio is predominantly vaccine strain. [?] The most frightening epidemics in
Congo, Afghanistan, and the Philippines, are all linked to vaccines. In fact, by 2018, 70%
of global polio cases were vaccine strain.
In 2014, the Gates Foundation funded tests of experimental HPV vaccines, developed by
Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) and Merck, on 23,000 young girls in remote Indian provinces.
Approximately 1,200 suffered severe side effects, including autoimmune and fertility
disorders. Seven died. Indian government investigations charged that Gates-funded
researchers committed pervasive ethical violations: pressuring vulnerable village girls
into the trial, bullying parents, forging consent forms, and refusing medical care to the
injured girls. The case is now in the country's Supreme Court.
In 2010, the Gates Foundation funded a phase 3 trial of GSK's experimental malaria
vaccine, killing 151 African infants and causing serious adverse effects including
paralysis, seizure, and febrile convulsions to 1,048 of the 5,949 children.
During Gates' 2002 MenAfriVac campaign in Sub-Saharan Africa, Gates' operatives forcibly
vaccinated thousands of African children against meningitis. Approximately 50 of the 500
children vaccinated developed paralysis. South African newspapers complained, "We are
guinea pigs for the drug makers." Nelson Mandela's former Senior Economist, Professor
Patrick Bond, describes Gates' philanthropic practices as "ruthless and immoral."
... ... ...
In addition to using his philanthropy to control WHO, UNICEF, GAVI, and PATH, Gates
funds a private pharmaceutical company that manufactures vaccines, and additionally is
donating $50 million to 12 pharmaceutical companies to speed up development of a
coronavirus vaccine. In his recent media appearances, Gates appears confident that the
Covid-19 crisis will now give him the opportunity to force his dictatorial vaccine programs
on American children.'
"If, then, I were asked for the most important advice I could give, that which I considered
to be the most useful to the men of our century, I should simply say: in the name of God,
stop a moment, cease your work, look around you." Leo Tolstoy
That's the message in a blistering April 11 letter sent by the New York State
Nurses Association's director to Howard Zucker, the state health commissioner, obtained by The Post.
The letter contradicts comments made by Melissa de Rosa, secretary to Gov. Cuomo, at a press briefing
last week, in which she said that hospitals were receiving
stockpiled PPE equipment
and that no health care facilities in the state would have to resort to
"crisis conservation."
That means the reusing of masks, hospital gowns and other equipment meant to guard against the spread
of COVID-19.
"At this point most hospitals and nursing homes in the New York City metropolitan area, which is the
national epicenter of the pandemic, continue to operate under 'crisis conservation' standards because
they do not have enough PPE to distribute to our desperate staff," wrote Patricia Kane, the executive
director of the Nurses Association, the union which represents 42,000 frontline nurses in the state.
Enlarge Image
Nurses
at Mount Sinai West wearing garbage bags as PPEs.
Criselle Cruz Bermas
In the letter, Kane went on to describe "widespread" crisis protocols for re-using scarce protective
equipment.
She described how N95 masks are only being used by nurses and other staff in ICUs and the masks,
designed for one-time use, must be recycled for up to five days before being discarded.
She described how the delay of delivery of PPEs to many hospitals have forced health care workers to
collect and re-sterilize used PPE equipment which would be discarded under normal circumstances.
"If the state is in possession of stockpiles of PPE, they should be immediately distributed to our
facilities so that our nurses and other staff can provide can provide care for patients under safe
conditions," Kane said.
"We urge you to treat this matter with the urgency that the situation warrants and act to protect the
safety and lives of the nurses and other direct care workers on the front lines of this fight.
"Our nurses do not need expressions of appreciation and promises. They need to see ample supplies of
PPE on their units."
Question: Why the hell do all of you in the comments assume this guy is right, and
literally every SINGLE other doctor and physician is wrong? Just because he's contradicting
the consensus? He hasn't presented a shred of evidence apart from his "theories". How likely
is it that literally nobody else agrees with him? Essentially zero. Why are you all jumping
on this? Cause of some insane conspiracy that every physician in the world is part of some
conspiracy to lie to you?
="article"> RT here. I'd consider using an esophageal balloon catheter and adjusting
vent settings according to transpulmonary pressures. A lot of places are using ARDSnet
protocol and this is a great start, but transpulmonary pressure monitoring is really the next
step up to achieving optimal and safe ventilator settings. I have a high suspicion that if
you place a balloon in a patient on ARDSnet setting, their PEEP would be suboptimal and their
transpulmonary pressure will be negative, suggesting alveolar collapse with every breath,
leading to atelectrauma and lung injury. I've had patients in APRV, placed a balloon and
switched back to conventional ventilation with balloon guided settings, and have drastic
improvements in both oxygenation and ventilation. Increasing PEEP to achieve PtpExp 0-5 to
avoid alveolar collapse and adjusting tidal volumes/inspiratory pressures to maintain
PtpInsp(Driving Pressure) <15 to avoid overdistention.
div>I tentatively suggest it may be worth researching Viagra as a possible treatment -
Viagra causes the blood to flow more freely and more oxygen flow in the body - Viagra is
commonly used by high altitude climbers to help them combat the severe lack of oxygen at high
altitude - see my previous comments. Maybe Viagra could help get desperately needed oxygen in
to the blood of Covid 19 patients and help save lives. It's definitely worth considering - as
it is an existing approved drug that could easily be re-appropriated without lengthy clinical
trials. At this point we have nothing to loose - if Viagra could possibly help, then it is
tentatively worth looking in to. (Possibly Coca leaves too - as they are also used to help
the body uptake oxygen at high altitude where there is very little oxygen - but I suppose
Coca leaves would never get official approval) I would be very interested to hear peoples
thoughts. Please read my previous comment for more info. Thank you for taking the time to
read this.
iv>Looks like the Covid19 has at least 3 stages of progression: Stage 1: fever, cough,
diarrhea, headache, within 7-10 days of infection Stage 2: as disease gets deeper into the
lungs, shortness of breath, low levels of oxygen by approximately day 11-15 days. At this
point the Respirators helps patients Stage 3: at about 3 weeks. The patients are very sick,
acute respiratory distress, shock, cardiac failure and death. Most probable, they are
experiencing the effects of the 'Cytokine storm' due to the viral overload, and a massive
release of cytokines, causing serious damage to the lungs, loss of lung function and fatal
outcome.
renderer-text-content expanded">Thank you, doctor. I'm a recently retired PhD veteran
of respiratory research out of pharma & biotech. I'm so relieved someone with credibility
has finally called it correctly. I have friends in Italy I've known for decades through the
medical/ research community. They've told me EXACTLY what you've found. Further, in some
Italian case series, 97% died on ventilators. A similar case series given high oxygen CPAP
often survived. Now imagine hundreds of elderly people, ill & having a positive covid19
PCR test, being put on transport ventilators attended by physicians inexperienced in ITU. I
would not expect many to survive, but this is our "surge capacity" we've set up in UK.
omment-renderer-text-content expanded">This is exactly what I have been suspecting.
This was recently published in Nature. "The results showed the ORF8 and surface glycoprotein
could bind to the porphyrin, respectively. At the same time, orf1ab, ORF10, and ORF3a
proteins could coordinate attack the heme on the 1-beta chain of hemoglobin to dissociate the
iron to form the porphyrin. The attack will cause less and less hemoglobin that can carry
oxygen and carbon dioxide. The lung cells have extremely intense poisoning and inflammatory
due to the inability to exchange carbon dioxide and oxygen frequently, which eventually
results in ground-glass-like lung images." 1. The virus attaches to the hemoglobin via ORF8
(a protein) and glycoprotein. Hemoglobin is an iron rich protein that that allows red blood
cells to carry oxygen from the lungs to the rest of the body. 2. This allows it to cut off
the iron 3. This reduces the amount of oxygen and carbon dioxide available to the lung cells.
(it is well known that anemia causes shortness of breathe, for example, because your body
does not get enough oxygen rich blood). 4. This results in intense poisoning and
inflammation, which results in lung damage, the ground glass like lung images, and sometimes
death. Sickle cell disease is caused by a mutation in the hemoglobin-Beta gene found on
chromosome 11. Hemoglobin transports oxygen from the lungs to other parts of the body. Red
blood cells with normal hemoglobin (hemoglobin-A) are smooth and round and glide through
blood vessels. This may be why an anti-malaria drug like Plaquenil might be effective against
this virus. Sickle cell anemia mutates the hemoglobin-Beta gene, which then provides
protection from malaria. COVID-19 attacks the beta-hemoglobin. Doctor, I came to the same
conclusion myself. Please pass this along to your colleagues.
https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173/5?fbclid=IwAR1K50u0wRWhOCv0_rxS2_bYk7p3mT-OWX08GXaa0Tm13bzT8Wl8MYfTAI8
There seems to be some evidence that hemoglobin is being disrupted and Iron ions are being
released and the Free iron ions are poisoning the lung cell. this needs to be researched.
Mitigated by providing O2 may be needed.
In Italy some (few) hospitals started using ozone therapy and the very first experiences
are rather promising. I really hope that they can find an effective treatment of
Covid-19.
iv> TY-I posted this on my FB and am sharing with all the pulmonologists I know. You
are spot on. Many of us nurses have had similar questions. Why is Vent to death rate nearly
2x faster with this than pneumonia? This is what I posted on my FB w your video. Please
please keep talking - everyone please keep talking and being public. Doctors and nurses are
the ones who will raise public awareness and create change and save lives. Nobody else.
Seriously we are on our own. Our union nurses have been making the news daily. We need to
continue to take over Social media and the news and use the public trust to advance care of
our patients and protection for us (need PPE) and our families. "This is NOT pneumonia. I
100% agree with him. There's no other answer to the poor response and rapid decline with
"traditional" treatment regimens. Please get this video out to all providers-especially
ICU-Critical Care Providers-Pulmonologists- Infection Disease doctors. There has to be a
different paradigm. Steroid use must be questioned. Suppression of febrile state must be
questioned? Why not allow the immune response to run its course up to 40C? Pay attention to
ACE2 receptor and microbiology of it's actions and role. Check out Med Cram or John Campbell
on Youtube as well. They speak to the same questions. We are all learning and this is
something totally new."
Malaria is also linked to hypoxia because the malaria parasite uses hemoglobin as a
nutrient source. HCQ is effective in protecting the hemoglobin in the blood which is why it
is showing success against COVID-19 as well.
" role="article"> There are four types of hypoxia: hypoxic, stagnant, anaemic and
cytotoxic - as I am sure you know. If your theory is correct this would equate to anaemic
hypoxia, but instead of lack of haemoglobin it would be dysfunctional. Similar, in a way, to
CO poisoning: HB doesn't unload oxygen, so there is a tissue hypoxia without cyanosis. What
you would see is normal or high pa02 (partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood) and
discordantly low arterial haemoglobin saturation. On the other hand, if pa02 is low it
indicates that the primary problem is pulmonary, that is oxygen does not diffuse across the
alveolar membrane. If haemoglobin is the primary problem then blood transfusion would indeed
improve the outcome. What is the typical blood gas like in these patients? I am in Australia,
and we don't have many severe cases, luckily. From what get to the Internet I gather these
patients are also hypercarbic. Which is the opposite of the altitude sickness, where a
patients hyperventilates, causing hypocarbia and respiratory alkalosis, with consequent
symptoms. Hence acetazolamide treatment. So, what's the typical arterial blood gas like in
COVID patients? High pa02 and low Sa02? Both low? What's paCO2 like?
Thank you for covering this doctor. I am sharing. I noticed that they have not rushed to
put Boris Johnson on a ventilator and Dr. Oz brought up the ventilator issues on a recent
broadcast. There are not enough qualified personnel running these machines throughout the
States and that is a cause for concern because as you have noted they need to be monitored
and adjusted accordingly. Stay safe. We have your back.
="article"> Video: Ari Whitten speaks with Scott Antoine, MD -- a board-certified
emergency physician and a functional and integrative medicine doctor about the latest
findings on COVID-19: A potential breakthrough on COVID-19 treatment." Show Notes: The
difference between ARDS and COVID-19 ( 0:59 ) The danger of the cytokine
storm ( 8:28 ) How COVID-19 may not be a
respiratory condition ( 16:20 ) The pros and cons of
ventilators ( 25:13 ) Why Methylene blue
shows promise for treating COVID-19 ( 31:00 ) Other potential factors
that could help COVID-19 treatment ( 47:33 ) How Vitamin C works in
COVID-19 treatment ( 55:09 )
https://www.theenergyblueprint.com/blue/?inf_contact_key=7c7cb8a0e1a3404449b49e79b5046d61d18a532c4142cb79caf2b269de1401fa
rticle"> Fantastic analysis, backed by a prospective explanation. I'm a physician in
upstate NY and confirm Dr. Kyle-Sidell's observations. HFNC (high-flow nasal cannula) appears
to be a good intermediary between typical face-mask O2 and traditional ventilators .. but
these machines are not in widespread use. Optiflow by Fisher & Paykal
https://www.fphcare.com/us/hospital/adult-respiratory/optiflow/ and Hi-VNI Precision Flow
by Vapotherm
https://vapotherm.com/hi-vni-technology/ are two companies that make these units. I have
no financial interests in either of these companies.
"article"> The symptoms of individuals presenting with suspected "CoVid 19" are similar
to individuals with radiation sickness. What is your experience with treating radiation
sickness? Have you attempted to utilize radiation sickness treatment protocol to address the
symptoms you are witnessing in individuals presenting with suspected "CoVid 19"? You feedback
is appreciated, thank you in advance.
https://rarediseases.org/rare-diseases/radiation-sickness
lass="comment-renderer-text-content expanded"> You are right. My hospital has a 0%
success rate using ventilators on covid patients. These patients can be sitting comfortably
talking to you on a non-rebreather with no use of accessory muscles and have a pulse ox of
75%. They appear to have no issue moving air into and out of the lungs like you would see if
it were ARDS. They all have horribly high ferritin levels and go into kidney failure long
before their respiratory system crashes.
This virus destroys the oxygen carrying capacity of the blood through the iron binding
sites of the red blood cells. So what then is the solution?
iv> This is from CDC web site (description of malaria): Severe malaria occurs when
infections are complicated by serious organ failures or abnormalities in the patient's blood
or metabolism. The manifestations of severe malaria include the following: Cerebral malaria,
with abnormal behavior, impairment of consciousness, seizures, coma, or other neurologic
abnormalities Severe anemia due to hemolysis (destruction of the red blood cells)
Hemoglobinuria (hemoglobin in the urine) due to hemolysis Acute respiratory distress syndrome
(ARDS), an inflammatory reaction in the lungs that inhibits oxygen exchange, which may occur
even after the parasite counts have decreased in response to treatment Abnormalities in blood
coagulation Low blood pressure caused by cardiovascular collapse Acute kidney injury
Hyperparasitemia, where more than 5% of the red blood cells are infected by malaria parasites
Metabolic acidosis (excessive acidity in the blood and tissue fluids), often in association
with hypoglycemia Hypoglycemia (low blood glucose). Hypoglycemia may also occur in pregnant
women with uncomplicated malaria, or after treatment with quinine. Severe malaria is a
medical emergency and should be treated urgently and aggressively. Now, what we have at hand
is viral malaria type disease. Same symptoms. Now, BIll Gates was working on the cure for
malaria, right? Maybe he found something else. Malaria and COVID 19 both respond well to HCQ.
You guys make your own conclusions.
Did you ever wonder if the disease itself gets a foothold because of the oxygen saturation
level of the patients involved? Could it be that the most severely compromised already have
lowered oxygen levels? Certainly exacerbated by COVID-19 but perhaps initiated by initial
lowered oxygen levels?
Dr Bill Deagle of Nutrimedical Report recently said in his broadcast that COVID-19 is like
a high altitude sickness - just as you've concluded Dr Kyle-Sidell. Dr. Bill Deagle (a bit
rough around the edges yet brilliant) claims to have treatment solutions that are effective.
Perhaps you should contact him immediately and have a conversation. It may steer the course
to brighter outcomes for us all. God speed! 🇺🇸
Good, but so few doctors have the nuts to speak out as this physician did. Treating Lungs,
when the lungs ARE WORKING FINE and only get damaged by the ventilator. It's blood disease,
where hemoglobin is destroyed and cannot deliver oxygen to the organs. We need
Hydroxychloroquine widely distributed as a preventative AND CURE, and open up our society
again!! FIRE FAUCI!
e"> You must clear out the phlegm in both lungs first. This virus consumes & breaks
down lung cells to replicate itself. As more cells are consumed more pinkish phlegm will
continue to form inside both lungs and blocking the air. Eventually the lungs will be
liquefied. Put down that American pride and start working with the Chinese experts to SAVE
LIVES. Enough time has been wasted on playing the blame game
https://covid-19.alibabacloud.com/
le"> ARDS, oxidative stress, PAP.( Pulmonary Alveolar Proteinosis), " It has been
proposed that lower iron saturation of Tf decreases iron-mediated oxidative stress and
rescues respiratory failure [89,90]. Secondary PAP can accompany infection, particle exposure
and malignancies [38], most of which are associated with altered iron homeostasis. Together,
a remarkable relationship between PAP and iron metabolism exists" " it has been proposed that
the presence of pro-oxidant iron in lung epithelial fluid may contribute to susceptibility to
oxidative damage [28]. Lavage fluid of ARDS patients has elevated levels of total and nonheme
iron as well as cellular content of Tf, ferritin and Lf [86]. This indicates impaired
pulmonary homeostasis of iron in ARDS, although it is unclear whether this is due to general
increase in membrane permeability or altered iron metabolism." ARDSAcute Respiratory Distress
SyndromeBALBronchoalveolar LavageDcytbDuodenal cytochrome bDMT1Divalent Metal Transporter
1FPNFerroportinLfLactoferrinLfRLactoferrin ReceptorNramp1Natural Resistance-associated
Macrophage Protein 1PAPPulmonary Alveolar ProteinosisRBCRed Blood
CellsTfTransferrinTfRTransferrin Receptor I copied and pasted exerpts from the study.
Interesting Read between correlation of Iron Homeostasis / Regulation and ARDS, Lung
Inflammation etc
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5718378/
> Cameron - I'm a retired scientist and former climber who got this disease back in
January (classic symptoms, including shortness of breath - now permanent), and what you are
describing is EXACTLY what I thought. I have been telling people that "I'm permanently stuck
at 7000 feet in the Colorado Rockies". I sleep worse just like when I was in the mountains.
Very lucky I'm not at 11,000 feet - that would not have been long-term survivable for me. I
can likely live 10-20 more years with this, if it doesn't progress, but I have a feeling that
it DOES PROGRESS. I don't think the virus is gone. It seems like it's still there. Quinine
and zinc helped me AFTER recovery, but the side effects of quinine are nasty, so I'm taking a
break. I had to get MacGyver and self-treat because I'm supposedly cured and can't get
HCQ/AZM/Zn and my doc is not a specialist, etc. Nobody knows how to deal with this, so my
fellow online researchers are working constantly on understanding (wqth.wordpress.com). We
think a lot of us got it - two of us had intermediate cases like mine (no hospitals). Would
love to get into a study.
You are the first colleague that also seems to have discovered that COVID-19 is not an
ordinary viral pneumonia. I think I may know how to prevent respiatoy failure in an early
phase and therefore no need for mechanical ventilation.
"article"> Hi Doctor. My experience of COVID-19 over the last 4 weeks precisely as you
are describing. I instinctively felt when I got it that it was not what the experts
described. I could feel through my knowledge with my body that the problem with my system as
it started to breakdown was in the drop in the oxygen levels being the main source of my
distress. The way I got COVID-19 the symptoms of fever, dry cough, aches and pains were such
that they did not distract from the main problem itself which was my system not taking in
oxygen, I have been trying to puzzle this out during my recovery and I definitely think that
as your explain it here it is the case with how the COVID-19 virus takes down the individual.
You must forge ahead with this. Let me offer an example in my own treatment of this ... I
deliberately removed certain remedies I was using like Vit C for a period of time to see what
the effect would be then I returned to a regime of taking it and the oxygen in-take into my
system returned and my system improved with the simple increase of Vit C I felt my oxygen
intake improve and I felt immediately less stressed. Also, a constriction in the back of my
throat alongside my swallowing action indicated to me when my system was struggling with
oxygen intake levels moving up and down. I definitely do agree with your findings here from
my experience of being a victim of this Virus in a significant way.
cle"> Email from another doctor in New York City to a colleague: "We have zero success
story for patients who were intubated. Our thinking is changing to postpone intubation to as
long as possible, to prevent mechanical injury from the vent. "Those patients tolerate
arterial hypoxia surprisingly well. Natural course seems to be the best. Yesterday did not
intubate patient with 86% [blood oxygen saturation percentage] on non re breather ( gave the
best sat, desated on CPAP). Today he is sating 96%. If he would have been intubated, he will
be dead in three days."
le"> Doctor Ming Lin an emergency room doctor with 17 years of experience was fired for
going public about poor hospital room safety and shortage of medical supplies and PPE. He was
employed by a physician staffing firm at Joseph Medical Center in Bellingham,Washington. A
third of hospital emergency rooms are staffed by 2 physician staffing companies TeamHealth
and Envision Healthcare, owned by Wall Street investment firms. Patients and insurance
companies then can be overcharged for needed emergency care. Blackstone's owner of Teamhealth
CEO, Stephan Schwarzman a part of the president's circle would not want an employee to
express information contrary to the political rhetoric of the current administration. The
navy relieved Captain Brett Cozier for also sounding the alarm about lack of medical supplies
and supplies. Do not be naive enough to believe money and power trumps the wellbeing of the
citizens of this country.
Could it not be an IHA reaction, also associated with the vulnerabilities to Covid?
Suppress that response and allow more time to overcome viral replication.
Tracey Continelli1 day ago This is exactly what I have been suspecting. This was recently
published in Nature. "The results showed the ORF8 and surface glycoprotein could bind to the
porphyrin, respectively. At the same time, orf1ab, ORF10, and ORF3a proteins could coordinate
attack the heme on the 1-beta chain of hemoglobin to dissociate the iron to form the
porphyrin. The attack will cause less and less hemoglobin that can carry oxygen and carbon
dioxide. The lung cells have extremely intense poisoning and inflammatory due to the
inability to exchange carbon dioxide and oxygen frequently, which eventually results in
ground-glass-like lung images." 1. The virus attaches to the hemoglobin via ORF8 (a protein)
and glycoprotein. Hemoglobin is an iron rich protein that that allows red blood cells to
carry oxygen from the lungs to the rest of the body. 2. This allows it to cut off the iron 3.
This reduces the amount of oxygen and carbon dioxide available to the lung cells. (it is well
known that anemia causes shortness of breathe, for example, because your body does not get
enough oxygen rich blood). 4. This results in intense poisoning and inflammation, which
results in lung damage, the ground glass like lung images, and sometimes death. Sickle cell
disease is caused by a mutation in the hemoglobin-Beta gene found on chromosome 11.
Hemoglobin transports oxygen from the lungs to other parts of the body. Red blood cells with
normal hemoglobin (hemoglobin-A) are smooth and round and glide through blood vessels. This
may be why an anti-malaria drug like Plaquenil might be effective against this virus. Sickle
cell anemia mutates the hemoglobin-Beta gene, which then provides protection from malaria.
COVID-19 attacks the beta-hemoglobin. Doctor, I came to the same conclusion myself. Please
pass this along to your colleagues.
https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173/5?fbclid=IwAR1K50u0wRWhOCv0_rxS2_bYk7p3mT-OWX08GXaa0Tm13bzT8Wl8MYfTAI8
Bob Sapp20 hours ago Tracey Continelli I'm trying to understand why the anti-malaria drug
would work. Are you saying the drug will mutate our hemoglobin and then the virus wouldn't be
able to attach itself to our red blood cell? Tracey Continelli11 hours ago (edited) @Bob Sapp
YES. Before the Nature article came out, multiple studies have been done showing that the
anti-malaria drug Plaquenil alters the intracellular structure. One article I found stated
that it had the ability to alter the protein structure. If this is true - and based on the
article in Nature, the virus attaches itself to the PROTEIN on the outside of the red blood
cells - then it is effectively PREVENTING the virus from attaching itself to the proteins and
glycoproteins on the red blood cells, where it then "kicks out" the iron ion, which then
prevents the lung cells from getting the necessary oxygen, which then causes the respiratory
distress and damaged lungs that clinicians are seeing. Tracey Continelli10 hours ago (edited)
I'm a health researcher and college professor. Hydroxychloroquine is hypothesized to be
exerting a multi-pronged effect on this virus. One, by altering the cellular structure, it
can make it difficult to replicate and reproduce itself. Two, it can make it difficult to
attach to the red blood cell wall and kicking out the iron ion, causing the deprivation of
oxygen to the lungs and patients becoming hypoxemic. Three, as someone noted, because it
dampens down the immune system (it is given to patients with lupus and rheumatoid arthritis,
both of whom have hyperactive immune system) it should lower the risk of a cytokine storm.
Sermo just conducted a study of over 6000 physicians around the world, asking them what
treatments for COVID-19 they had used, and which they considered to be the most promising.
Sermo regularly surveys physicians around the world, it is an established organization. As a
professor/researcher I was able to access the data myself and ran the numbers. Excluding
already approved treatments, such as Tylenol, antibiotics, etc, I isolated ONLY the four
experimental treatments and computed the percentages. Here they are: Hydroxychloroquine - 49%
Anti-HIV retrivirals - 30% Plasma - 8% Remdesivir - 13% Sermo computed the percentages
differently by including other drug treatments, but still found that hydroxychloroquine was
rated as most effective.
https://www.sermo.com/press-releases/largest-statistically-significant-study-by-6200-multi-country-physicians-on-covid-19-uncovers-treatment-patterns-and-puts-pandemic-in-context/?fbclid=IwAR36GA79oiUF5cuCjuweV2pqys0Eneu6AAbqoOfikK1PgYepVvLP1tKC5cc
e"> Thoughts on COVID-19 Pathophysiology and Therapeutic Intervention Posted on Quora
on 5/10 in response to the video. Quora: Does Covid-19 really cause ARDS? Dr. Cameron
Kyle-Sidell questions treating COVID-19 with the present medical paradigm of ARDS. ........
"We should consider that part of the pathophysiological mechanism of COVID-19 is resulting
from an acquired hemoglobinopathy or dyshemoglobinemia" .
I think this may answer some of your questions about oxygenation vs ventilation.
https://archive.is/ONUmi#selection-183.0-183.75 Says that CV causes the iron to
dissociate from the heme groups, causing dysfunctional hemoglobin. And the Fe+++ causes
massive oxidative damage. That is why intravenous Vitamin C has been so effective at avoiding
the cytokine storm. Even explains chloroquine effect. Highly recommended.
A German team lead by virologist Hendrick Streeck has now researched the German Hot Spot
Heinsberg. They tested 1000 randomized people and found that a whopping 15% was infected -
most of them without showing any symptoms.
Based on this preliminary findings the scientists conclude that the lethality of COVID-19
is 0,37%. They also conclude that the virus has successfully installed itself in the
population and is impossible to eradicate without a year-long lock down, making herd immunity
the preferential goal to achieve.
Ventilator-associated lung
injury - Wikipediahttps://en.wikipedia.org
/wiki/Ventilator-associated_lung_injury Ventilator-associated lung injury (VALI) is an acute lung injury that develops
during mechanical ventilation and is termed ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI) if it can be proven that the mechanical
ventilation caused the acute lung injury. In contrast, ventilator-associated lung injury (VALI) exists if the cause
cannot be proven.
"... New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has launched a fund to support sick healthcare workers and their families, but some blame him for the dire working conditions facing the state's caregivers after nine years of hospital budget cuts. Cuomo announced the state is working on a "Covid-19 Heroes Compensation Fund" to support healthcare workers and their families who have been diagnosed with the coronavirus during his daily briefing on Friday. It was heralded by his growing Democratic fan club as a generous, thoughtful move from a politician who cares about the "frontline workers." ..."
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has launched a fund to support sick healthcare workers
and their families, but some blame him for the dire working conditions facing the state's
caregivers after nine years of hospital budget cuts. Cuomo announced the state is working on a
"Covid-19 Heroes Compensation Fund" to support healthcare workers and their families who
have been diagnosed with the coronavirus during his daily briefing on Friday. It was heralded
by his growing Democratic fan club as a generous, thoughtful move from a politician who cares
about the "frontline workers."
Absent from the lovefest was any mention of how the governor had - just the previous day -
deferred 2 percent pay raises to some 80,000 state workers for 90 days, and potentially for
longer. Many of those affected are healthcare workers in the state's prisons and mental health
facilities.
Union leaders were outraged. "It's inexcusable to require our workers to literally face
death to ensure the state keeps running and then turn around and deny those very workers their
much-deserved raise in this time of crisis, " Civil Service Employees Association president
Mary Sullivan told the Times Union, while NY Correctional Officers and Police Benevolent
Association chief Michael Powers called the postponement a "slap in the face" to workers
facing "some of the most dangerous conditions in the state."
While Cuomo is being praised for his leadership amid the coronavirus outbreak, the problems
he is scrambling to solve are largely of his own making. Although aware of a 2015 report
highlighting the desperately-depleted state stockpile of ventilators, he didn't take any
actions on it, and has spent his tenure shuttering and downsizing hospitals across the state,
mostly those serving low-income clients. The state has eliminated 20,000 hospital beds in the
last two decades, at least half under his leadership.
The New York state budget passed at the beginning of the month included deep cuts to
Medicaid and may have rendered the state ineligible for $6 billion in federal aid, infuriating
liberal lawmakers who were less enchanted with the new #Resistance hero. State Senator Gustavo
Rivera (D-Bronx) told the New York Daily News that Cuomo's latest budget "only offered harsh
austerity for the poorest and most vulnerable" New Yorkers.
The state's Democrat-controlled senate called on Cuomo to tax the wealthy - New York has the
highest economic inequality in the country, and a tax on the richest .01 percent has upwards of
90 percent approval among voters - only to be turned down by the politician who has earned the
nickname "Governor One Percent."
The latest cost-cutting moves resulted in New York City deprived on $200 million in sales
tax revenue when the big apple is at the epicenter of the US coronavirus outbreak.
The pandemic has hospitals so understaffed that NYC Health and Hospitals Corporation has
apparently been reduced to contracting dodgy medical-temp agencies - one, Kansas-based
disaster-staffing group Krucial Staffing, was sued earlier this week for luring out-of-state
medical professionals to work in city hospitals under false pretenses, promising them cushy
posts with ample protective equipment and no Covid-19 exposure - to fill vacancies. The suit
alleges Krucial's misrepresentation of working conditions placed healthcare workers' medical
licenses and lives in danger.
It's unclear how many medical workers have contracted and died of the disease in the state,
as New York, along with several other states, does not tract infections among medical staff.
According to a BuzzFeed News review of the reports by 12 states, which made their data public,
at least 5,400 nurses and doctors tested positive nationwide, while dozens have succumbed to
the lethal illness. Among them, Kious Kelly, an assistant nurse manager at Mount Sinai West,
whose death from the coronavirus on March 24 sparked protests among the personnel and led to
the hospital eventually allowing workers to receive tests – but only those already
showing symptoms.
Some 7,887 New Yorkers have died with coronavirus since the beginning of the outbreak, the
majority of them - 5,820 - in New York City.
Think your friends would be interested? Share this story!
In Italy, two similar regions, Lombardy and Veneto, took different approaches to the
community spread of the epidemic. Both mandated social distancing, but only Veneto
undertook massive contact tracing and testing early on. Despite starting from very similar
points, Lombardy is now tragically overrun with the disease, having experienced roughly
7,000 deaths and counting, while Veneto has managed to mostly contain the epidemic to a few
hundred fatalities.
"Wet markets really are just farmers' markets that also happen to sell fresh fish (thus
the "wet" part of their label) and poultry and sometimes beef and pork."
"Readers can display how susceptible they are to mass media driven hysteria and jingoism
and perhaps also reveal unacknowledged racism by insisting that there is something
fundamentally different about Asian farmers markets from the local ones they themselves shop
at for the freshest foods. "
I would respond that the fact that our local farmers markets don't generally sell the
"wet" stuff is in and of itself a "fundamental difference." If there are disease-vector
issues with wetmarkets, the issue will likely have originated in the "wet" part of the
market.
PS re the wet market bs. Let's all grow up. Nearly every coastal town I've ever visited on
four continents has a "wet market" i.e. tanks full of shell fish or crayfish or lobsters.
There are plenty of places you can buy a live chicken and have it cut up. In souther murka
they do love their trotters - i.e. pig's feet (gross in my opinion.) sea urchins any one? How
about sea slugs? There's a tasty meal. I know, let's just call it a "fresh food" market.
Hmmm?
With the deepest respect for your inner beauty. Cheers.
A relative and her husband returned to China recently from UK expecting to go to hotel for
14 days quarantine. Instead another passenger developed symptom on flight so all passengers
isolated for testing. Relative and husband tested positive but were asymptomatic (except she
lost sense of taste & smell). Now in isolation hospital for minimum of 14 days until
given all clear, then they'll spend another minimum of 14 days in quarantine in hotel until
cleared again. How many western countries are doing/planning to do this?
The U.S. surgeon general on Sunday trumpeted the administration's new recommendation that
all Americans wear cloth masks in public, a reversal of its previous advice as the country
braces for a dramatic surge in COVID-19 cases and potential fatalities this week.
"The next week is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment. It's going to be our 9/11 moment.
It's going to be the hardest moment for many Americans in their entire lives," Vice Admiral
Jerome Adams warned on NBC's "Meet the Press," as he made rounds of political talk shows.
The push to wear masks follows updated guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. It is not mandatory but masks offer added protection against spreading the
coronavirus, especially when people cannot practice 6-foot social distancing.
Re: Effective home-made mask insert/liner material: Two brands of cheap widely available blue
shop towels are found to work great: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNDE12HymYc
(starts at minute 31:20).
Re: bubonic plague in Mongolia. Sporadic human Yersinia pestis infections have been
endemic in American Southwest for many years.
Being "connected" is a huge part of the cause of this mess, before internet propaganda was
limited to newspapers and magazines, it was much slower and manageable.
I do find it funny how wealthy folks spread the "don't worry WE will all be fine" garbage.
WE....no, tell that to someone who has lost their business and has dependents.
I hate the "We're going to be ok. We're all in this together" ads. All of them
celebrities, pro athletes, and actors. Not one has to worry about whether they'll be able to
buy food next week. Elites telling the little people everything's ok.
It's really sad when Tucker Carlson is the only person who ever admitted he was wrong on
Fox News. Hannity still claims he never called the virus a hoax even though he did it on
TV.
Hydroxchloroquinine is toxic if combined with metformin. Diabetics who take it beware.
source
Note the link above also lists all of the known drug interactions of HCH with other drugs -
there are 332 total of which 59 are considered "major".
Fauci had previously supported the use of Hydroquinone for similar virus. What changed?
However, to the matter of Israel and the virus:
I thought they were having strangely little impact from virus.
Anyway, this is all very revealing.
You know how people always question:
Why did that woman remain in that abusive relationship?
@jared #26
I don't consider anything coming out of ZH to be credible until verified.
Fauci has been very consistent: he is cautious about whether hydroxychloroquinine is a
efficacious treatment for nCOV/COVID-19.
Note there are multiple levels of potential use:
1) The drug doesn't hurt/kill you. At normal levels, HCH passes this test but the levels it
has been used at to treat nCOV - they're much higher than existing anti-malaria/malaria
preventative/rheumatoid arthritis use.
At these higher levels, it isn't clear how safe HCH is - particularly for really old people
who are the primary nCOV at risk group.
2) Does the drug decrease negative outcomes? i.e. maybe it doesn't cure (which it shouldn't)
but it makes it less likely that nCOV infected get pneumonia or worse. This would be
fantastic but it is 100% unproven.
3) Does the drug cure? By itself or with other things like the antibiotic azithromycin? There
have been studies saying yes - but I look at a couple - and they're frankly poor studies. To
me, it is very unclear.
Hydroxychloroquinine/chloroquinine phosphate shows promise as a way to treat nCOV in its
early stages, but this is so far completely unverified. Nor do we know what the optimal
dosage might be to balance between known risks and side effects induced by HCH use vs.
optimal nCOV impact.
I've gotten a prescription sufficient for a couple of courses, but am not taking it as a
preventative (nor is there any proof it actually works this way).
Lots of people taking HCH as a preventative when it doesn't work or as treatment when
dosages/outcomes aren't known *will* increase the likelihood that nCOV will evolve resistance
against it, so it isn't like side effects are the only bad outcome to uninformed use.
The Trump regime's goal is only ever to enrich themselves through the Presidency. Reportedly,
Kushner's National Stockpile has been, uh, stockpiling Hydroxychloroquine as the President
has been snake-oiling it. As the USA is become completely privatized it is not hard to
arrange government contracts to middle-man the stockpile to its needy 'customers.'
And I can't believe all the raging antisemites here. Surely the Israelis have procured all
those masks to help out those poor Palestinians for whom they care so deeply.
Finally; can we see the endgame? Whip up a worse-case scenario of fear mongering that our
leaders miraculously save us from, yet institute a 'new normal' ripped from the pages of
Orwell to protect us from the 'next time' which they promise is a matter of when not if.
@38 - Chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine are not sufficient by themselves for treating
COVID-19. CQ and HCQ create a pathway for zinc ions to get inside the cells to disrupt the
coronavirus replication. It's the zinc that actually is the medicine. See this study for
details - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21079686/
Even as hospitals and governors raise the alarm about a shortage of ventilators, some
critical care physicians are questioning the widespread use of the breathing machines for
Covid-19 patients, saying that large numbers of patients could instead be treated with less
intensive respiratory support.
If the iconoclasts are right, putting coronavirus patients on ventilators could be of
little benefit to many and even harmful to some.
What's driving this reassessment is a baffling observation about Covid-19: Many patients
have blood oxygen levels so low they should be dead. But they're not gasping for air, their
hearts aren't racing, and their brains show no signs of blinking off from lack of
oxygen.
The more I read about ventilators, the more sure I am that I do not want one if I get sick
from the evil virus.
My understanding is that currently the UK has a 50% mortality rate of Covid sufferers
who've been put on ventilators. They started using CPAP masks several weeks ago according to
Dr. John D. Campbell UK. Much less invasive.
Interesting link you share -- it mentions acute symptoms are more like altitude sickness,
with low 02 but CO2 still being cleared
My daughter who is a hospital worker showed me her mask, made by her sister. And b has posted
previously directions for making masks.
While homemade or even professional surgical mask do not protect the wearer from all
particles they do protect one much better from them than when one wears no mask at all.
A person rarely gets infected by just one virus particle. They come in millions attached
to tiny droplets. We do not know yet how the dose of the novel coronavirus that infects a
person affects the intensity of the disease. But we do know from other viruses that the
dose matters. People who catch a higher dose of viruses will usually have a more intense
disease. A mask can lower the virus load the wearer may receive.
One can
improvise a mask from simple household objects. One can sew a mask like a surgeon
does in this video .
This is my preferred model which is officially recommended by German fire departments.
(The pdf is in German but the pictures tell the story). This is the mask I made by
following those instructions.
It is made of a folded sheet cut from a triangular arm-sling out of an old first-aid
kit. A HEPA microfilter (as used in a vacuum cleaners) is in between the folded sheet. A
piece cut from a clean bag for vacuum cleaners will do as well. Do not use a sheet or
insert that is too tight to breathe through. If one does that the air will come in from the
sides of the mask and the total protection effect will be less. It can be arduous to
breathe through such a mask. If you have breathing problems leave the insert out. The
sheets alone are already good protection. There is a piece of wire from a big paper clip
fixed inside the middle of the upper seam to fit the mask tightly around the upper nose.
The lower part goes under the chin. I shaved my beard to make it a tighter fit. As I had no
sewing equipment I used a stapler to fix the seams and the ribbons.
The HEPA filter catches
particles down to 0.3 micrometer. Viruses are some 125 nanometer in diameter so they are
smaller and could slip through. But the viruses are attached to some droplet that are
bigger. HEPA filter are essentially labyrinths of small fiber and the viruses would have to
bounce multiple times to get through. Finally the dose also matters.
To clean the mask of potential viruses I put it into the oven for 30 minutes at 70C
(158F).
The science says that masks work. Everyone should use one. #MaskUp!
The advantage is you can throw them in the washing machine to clean, or even hand wash as
they are small items.
The masks in question here, surgical ones, being only meant to protect the patient from
the practitioner, seem somewhat flawed in any case.
Better to make better ones; let the Israelis have those not so good ones. A great gift
from a family member to their hardworking sibling.
There ought to be an industrial production plant producing the cloth masks with disposable
inserts - how about taking over a diaper factory - a lot of folk still use the cloth ones -
have such been totally outsourced? (I'd make 'em deluxe, organic cotton only! But for us home
bodies, an old sheet well washed, suitably patterned is better than nothing at all.)
Dr Beckmann spokeswoman Susan Fermor revealed a wash at 60C is enough.
She said: "There's a common misconception that people should wash clothes on the hottest
possible setting to kill bacteria, but it's unnecessary.
"Tests have proven that washing your clothes at 60C, with a good detergent, is perfectly
adequate to kill bacteria.
"Just make sure that you check all garments are suitable to be washed at this temperature
before putting them in the washing machine and take care not to ruin your clothes by boil
washing."
... ... ...
The NHS said people should keep these items separately from those bearing the
virus.
They released the following advice:
Keep and wash heavily soiled clothes separately from other items
"... Read more about what evidence exists for the idea that spices can affect your health , and how hot drinks will not protect you from Covid-19 ). ..."
"... Unfortunately, the idea that pills, trendy superfoods or wellness habits can provide a shortcut to a healthy immune system is a myth. In fact, the concept of "boosting" your immune system doesn't hold any scientific meaning whatsoever. ..."
"... In this case, the mucus helps to flush out the pathogen, the fever helps to make your body an uncomfortably hot environment in which it's harder for it to replicate, and the aches and general malaise are by-products of the inflammatory chemicals that course through your veins, telling immune cells what to do and where to go. (These symptoms also help signal to your brain that it's time to slow down and let your body recover). ..."
"... There is no evidence that vitamin supplements will protect you from infections, unless you are deficient (Credit: Reuters) Making the other aspect of immunity – the adaptive immune system – generally more active could also be extremely unpleasant. For example, allergies occur when overzealous immune cells learn to treat innocuous foreign bodies, such as pollen, as though they are harmful. Each time they find the offending substance, they switch on the innate immune response too – cue lots of sneezing, itchy eyes and general fatigue. Again, this is probably not what the people championing these remedies have in mind. ..."
"... If you're healthy, forget supplements – except vitamin D ..."
"... Many multivitamins claim to provide "immune support" or to help "maintain healthy immune function". But as BBC Future reported in 2016, vitamin supplements generally don't work in already healthy people – and some may even be harmful. ..."
"... there is little evidence to support vitamin C's mighty reputation for helping us to fight off colds and other respiratory infections. A 2013 review by Cochrane – an organisation renowned for its unbiased research – found that in adults "trials of high doses of vitamin C administered therapeutically, starting after the onset of symptoms, showed no consistent effect on the duration or severity of common cold symptoms". ..."
"... high doses of this vitamin can lead to kidney stones . ..."
"... Brightly coloured fruits and vegetables tend to contain the most antioxidants, because the compounds are often pigmented (Credit: Getty Images) In the developed world, most people get enough vitamins from their diets (unless they are restricted – vegans, for example, are more likely to have certain deficiencies ). However, there is one exception – vitamin D. Iwasaki explains that taking this supplement wouldn't be a bad idea. ..."
"... In fact, many immune cells can actively recognise vitamin D, and it's thought to play an important role in both the innate and acquired immune response – though exactly how remains a mystery. ..."
"... (Read more about who needs to take vitamin D and why ). ..."
"... And we get some of our reserves of these compounds from our diets. Brightly coloured fruits, vegetables and spices tend to contain the most, because antioxidants are often pigmented: they give carrots, blueberries, aubergines, red kale, turmeric, and strawberries their hues. ..."
"... Wellness products aside, there are some approaches you can ..."
Forget kombucha and trendy vitamin supplements – they are nothing more than magic
potions for the modern age. "Spanish Influenza – what it is and how it should be
treated," read the reassuringly factual headline to an advert for Vick's VapoRub
back in 1918 . The text beneath included nuggets of wisdom such as "stay quiet" and "take a
laxative". Oh, and to apply their ointment liberally, of course.
The 1918 flu pandemic was the
most lethal in recorded history , infecting up to 500 million people (a quarter of the
world's population at the time) and killing tens of millions worldwide.
But with crisis comes opportunity, and the – sometimes literal – snake oil
salesmen were out in force. Vick's VapoRub had stiff competition from a panoply of crackpot
remedies, including Miller's Antiseptic Snake Oil , Dr Bell's
Pine Tar Honey, Schenck's Mandrake Pills, Dr Jones's Liniment, Hill's Cascara Quinine
Bromide , and A. Wulfing & Co's famous mint lozenges. Their adverts made regular
appearances in the newspapers, where they starred alongside increasingly alarming
headlines.
Fast-forward to 2020, and not much has changed. Though the Covid-19 pandemic is separated
from the Spanish flu by over a century of scientific discoveries, there are still plenty of
questionable medicinal concoctions and folk remedies floating around. This time, the theme is
"boosting" the immune system.
Of the rumours currently circulating on social media, one of the more bizarre is the idea
that you can raise your white blood cell count by masturbating more. And as always, nutritional
advice abounds. This time, we're being encouraged to seek out foods rich in antioxidants and
vitamin C (back in 1918, the public were told to eat more onions), while pseudoscientists are
peddling trendy products such as
kombucha and probiotics
.
Unfortunately, the idea that pills, trendy superfoods or wellness habits can provide a
shortcut to a healthy immune system is a myth. In fact, the concept of "boosting" your immune
system doesn't hold any scientific meaning whatsoever.
"There are three different components to immunity," says Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at
Yale University. "There's things like skin, the airways and the mucus membranes that are there
to begin with, and they provide a barrier to infection. But once the virus gets past these
defences, then you have to induce the 'innate' immune response." This consists of chemicals and
cells which can rapidly raise the alert and begin fighting off any intruder.
The 1918 flu pandemic was an opportunity for snake oil salesmen to market their useless -
and sometimes harmful - products (Credit: Getty Images)
"When that is not enough, then we kick
in the adaptive immune system," she says. This involves cells and proteins – antibodies
– which take a few days or weeks to emerge. Importantly, the adaptive immune system can
only target particular pathogens. "So, for example, a T-cell specific to Covid-19 will not
respond to influenza or bacterial pathogens."
Most infections will trigger adaptive immunity eventually. But there's another way to get it
going, and that's vaccination: exposing the body to live or dead microbes, or parts of them,
can help the body to identify the real deal when it comes along.
The concept of "boosting" a person's immune system would, presumably, involve making these
responses more active, or stronger.
In actuality, you wouldn't want to do this.
Take the symptoms of a cold – body aches, a fever, brain fog, copious amounts of snot
and phlegm. Most of these problems aren't actually caused by the virus itself. Instead, they're
triggered by your own body, on purpose: they're part of the innate immune response.
Many "immunity-boosting" products claim to reduce inflammation
In this case, the mucus helps to flush out the pathogen, the fever helps to make
your body an uncomfortably hot environment in which it's harder for it to replicate, and the
aches and general
malaise are by-products of the inflammatory chemicals that course through your veins,
telling immune cells what to do and where to go. (These symptoms also help signal to your brain
that it's time to slow down and let your body recover).
The mucus and chemical signals are part of inflammation, which is the bedrock of a healthy immune
response . But the process is exhausting, so you wouldn't want to have it turned up to 11
all the time. And most viruses, including Covid-19, will trigger it anyway. If kombucha, green
tea or any of the various "immune-boosting" concoctions on the market really had any impact,
they wouldn't give you a healthful glow: they'd give you a runny nose.
Ironically, many "immunity-boosting" products claim to reduce inflammation.
There is no evidence that vitamin supplements will protect you from infections, unless you
are deficient (Credit: Reuters) Making the other aspect of immunity – the adaptive immune
system – generally more active could also be extremely unpleasant. For example, allergies
occur when overzealous immune cells learn to treat innocuous foreign bodies, such as pollen, as
though they are harmful. Each time they find the offending substance, they switch on the innate
immune response too – cue lots of sneezing, itchy eyes and general fatigue. Again, this
is probably not what the people championing these remedies have in mind.
But let's give those saying you can "boost" your immune system the benefit of the doubt and
assume they mean that certain products can improve the immune response in a useful way –
rather than literally "boost" it.
"The problem is that many of these claims have no grounding in evidence," Iwasaki says. So
what are they based on – and is there anything that can help?
If you're healthy, forget supplements – except vitamin D
Many multivitamins claim to provide "immune support" or to help "maintain healthy immune
function". But as BBC Future reported in 2016, vitamin
supplements generally don't work in already healthy people – and some may even be
harmful.
Take vitamin C. The health effects of this antioxidant have been steeped in mythology ever
since the two-time Nobel Prize winner Linus Pauling became obsessed with its ability to fight
the common cold. After studying the vitamin for years, eventually he started taking 18,000 mg
per day – around 300 times the current recommended daily amount.
Vitamin supplements aren't beneficial to your immune system unless you are deficient
However, there is little evidence to support vitamin C's mighty reputation for
helping us to fight off colds and other respiratory infections. A 2013
review by Cochrane – an organisation renowned for its unbiased research – found
that in adults "trials of high doses of vitamin C administered therapeutically, starting after
the onset of symptoms, showed no consistent effect on the duration or severity of common cold
symptoms".
In fact, many experts consider the vitamin C market to be a bit of a racket , as
most people in the developed world get enough from their diets already. Though scurvy is
thought to have killed two million sailors and pirates between the 15th and 18th Centuries, the
numbers now are far lower. For example, just 128
people in England were hospitalised with the disease between 2016 and 2017. On the other
hand, high doses of this vitamin can lead to kidney
stones .
"Vitamin supplements aren't beneficial to your immune system unless you are deficient," says
Iwasaki.
Brightly coloured fruits and vegetables tend to contain the most antioxidants, because the
compounds are often pigmented (Credit: Getty Images) In the developed world, most people get
enough vitamins from their diets (unless they are restricted – vegans,
for example, are more likely to have certain deficiencies ). However, there is one
exception – vitamin D. Iwasaki explains that taking this supplement wouldn't be a bad
idea.
But crucially – and unusually – vitamin D deficiencies are endemic in many
countries, even wealthy ones. As of 2012, it was estimated that about a billion people worldwide weren't
getting enough. And with more and more people urged to stay indoors, it's easy to see how even
less sunlight exposure could lead to more deficiencies. (Read more about who needs to
take vitamin D and why ).
No, masturbation won't help either
Historically, this form of sexual activity was held in deep suspicion by Western medicine.
After an 18th Century doctor claimed that the loss of one ounce of semen (28 millilitres) had
the same effect on the body as losing 40 ounces (1.18 litres) of blood, masturbation was blamed
for all kinds of health problems for hundreds of years, from blindness to neurosis.
Now the tables have turned, and recent research has shown that it can come with some
surprising health benefits. In men, for example, it's thought to help keep sperm healthy and
may reduce a person's risk
of developing prostate cancer .
The question of whether antioxidants can help is slightly more complicated
Alas, any claims that masturbation can improve your immunity or protect you from
Covid-19 are overblown. It's true that one study found that men had higher white blood cell counts when
they were sexually aroused, and during orgasm. However, there is no evidence that this
translates into protection from infections.
There is one way that the practice might protect you – by keeping away from other
people. On Twitter, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene recently reminded
their followers that, in the age of Covid-19, "
you are your safest sex partner ".
There's no need to stock up on antioxidant pills
The question of whether antioxidants can help is slightly more complicated.
As part of the inflammatory response, white blood cells release toxic oxygen compounds.
These are something of a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they can kill bacteria and
viruses and stop them from being able to make more copies of themselves. On the other, they can
damage healthy cells, leading to cancer and ageing – and wearing out the immune
system.
To stop this from happening, the body relies on antioxidants. These help to control those
unruly oxygen compounds and keep our cells safe.
And we get some of our reserves of these compounds from our diets. Brightly coloured fruits,
vegetables and spices tend to contain the most, because antioxidants are often pigmented: they
give carrots, blueberries, aubergines, red kale, turmeric, and strawberries their hues.
Wellness experts like to promote kombucha as more than just a drink - but there's no
evidence that it can treat or prevent any illnesses, including Covid-19 (Credit: Getty Images)
There's currently a trial in the works to test if giving people with Covid-19 antioxidant
supplements might help their recovery.
However, the trial is just one of hundreds looking into potential treatments for Covid-19.
And despite decades of research, not a single placebo-controlled, peer-reviewed study on humans
has ever shown that high doses of antioxidants can "boost" the immune system, or treat or
prevent viral infections in humans.
Probiotics may help or they may not
If you believe the wellness experts and homeopaths, kombucha is much more than a sweet,
fizzy drink made from fermented tea. The internet is teeming with outrageous claims about the
product, including that it can
treat cancer and even Aids (it can't).
Like probiotics, kombucha contains live microorganisms. However, no studies have ever
confirmed whether the drink has these in high enough concentrations to be considered one
– and there is currently no evidence that kombucha specifically can treat or prevent any
illnesses whatsoever.
The picture is less clear for probiotics in general.
There is currently no evidence that any kind of probiotic can protect you from
Covid-19
One 2015 review found that probiotics – beneficial microorganisms which are
concentrated in foods, drinks, or pills – significantly reduced the
number of upper respiratory tract infections that people got and made them less severe.
They also slightly reduced the use of antibiotics and led to fewer school absences. The authors
concluded that they might be better than placebo treatments, but pointed out that the quality
of the available evidence was low.
(You can find out more about what we
do and don't know about gut health , as well as how to eat
your way to a healthy gut by checking out BBC Future's series on gut bacteria from last
year. We found that it's true that gut bacteria are important – but that taking
probiotics is unlikely to help you much, and that the best way forward is to simply eat a
varied diet.)
Importantly, there is currently no evidence that any kind of probiotic can protect you from
Covid-19.
So what has been proven to work?
Iwasaki says most of these myths are relatively innocuous – but the danger is that
falling for them will give you a false sense of security. "One thing I do warn against is when
people feel like they're protected. They shouldn't feel empowered to go out there and, you
know, start having parties," she says.
Wellness products aside, there are some approaches you can take to help support
your immune system. They aren't especially sexy, and you won't see many wellness influencers
selling them in a bottle. They are, however, proven to work – and they don't require
shelling out your hard-earned cash: get enough sleep, exercise, eat a balanced diet, and try
not to be stressed.
Failing that, there is one sure-fire way to improve your immunity to certain pathogens:
vaccination.
Growing numbers of fake medicines linked to coronavirus are on sale in developing countries,
the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned.
A BBC News investigation found fake drugs for sale in Africa, with counterfeiters exploiting
growing gaps in the market.
The WHO said taking these drugs could have "serious side effects".
One expert warned of "a parallel pandemic, of substandard and falsified products".
Around the world, people are stockpiling basic medicines. However, with the world's two
largest producers of medical supplies - China and India - in lockdown, demand now outstrips the
supply and the circulation of dangerous counterfeit drugs is soaring.
In the same week the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus a pandemic last
month, Operation Pangea, Interpol's global pharmaceutical crime fighting unit, made 121 arrests
across 90 countries in just seven days, resulting in the seizure of dangerous pharmaceuticals
worth over $14m (£11m).
From Malaysia to Mozambique, police officers confiscated tens of thousands of counterfeit
face masks and fake medicines, many of which claimed to be able to cure coronavirus. "The
illicit trade in such counterfeit medical items during a public health crisis, shows a total
disregard for people's lives," said Interpol's Secretary General Jurgen Stock.
According to the WHO, the broader falsified medicines trade, which includes medicines which
may be contaminated, contain the wrong or no active ingredient, or may be out-of-date, is worth
more than $30bn in low and middle-income countries.
"Best case scenario they [fake medicines] probably won't treat the disease for which they
were intended", said Pernette Bourdillion Esteve, from the WHO team dealing with falsified
medical products.
"But worst-case scenario they'll actively cause harm, because they might be contaminated
with something toxic."
The supply chain
The global pharmaceutical industry is worth more than $1 trillion. Vast supply chains
stretch all the way from key manufacturers in places such as China and India, to packaging
warehouses in Europe, South America or Asia, to distributors sending medicines to every country
in the world.
There is "probably nothing more globalised than medicine" said Esteve. However, as the world
goes into lockdown, the supply chain has already begun to uncouple.
Several pharmaceutical companies in India told the BBC they are now operating at 50-60% of
their normal capacity. As Indian companies supply 20% of all basic medicines to Africa, nations
there are being disproportionately affected. Fake medicine
Speaking to pharmacists and drug companies around the world, the global supply of
antimalarials is now under threat.
Ever since US President Donald Trump began referring to the potential of chloroquine and a
related derivative, hydroxychloroquine, in White House briefings, there has been a global surge
in the demand for these drugs, which are normally used to tackle malaria.
The WHO has repeatedly said there is no definitive evidence that chloroquine or
hydroxychloroquine can be used against the virus that causes Covid-19. However, at a recent
news conference, whilst referring to these antimalarials, President Trump said: "What do you
have to lose? Take it."
As the demand has soared, the BBC has discovered large quantities of fake chloroquine in
circulation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon. The WHO has also found the fake
medicines for sale in Niger.
The antimalarial chloroquine is normally sold for about $40 for a pot of 1,000 tablets. But
pharmacists in the DRC were found to be selling them for up to $250.
The medicine being sold was allegedly manufactured in Belgium, by "Brown and Burk
Pharmaceutical limited". However, Brown and Burk, a pharmaceutical company registered in the
UK, said they had "nothing to do with this medicine. We don't manufacture this drug, it's
fake." As the coronavirus pandemic continues, Professor Paul Newton, an expert in fake
medicines at the University of Oxford, warned the circulation of fake and dangerous medicines
would only increase unless governments around the world present a united front.
"We risk a parallel pandemic, of substandard and falsified products unless we all ensure
that there is a global co-ordinated plan for co-ordinated production, equitable distribution
and the surveillance of the quality of the tests, medicines and vaccines. Otherwise the
benefits of modern medicine... will be lost."
The Interviewer
: John Kirby is the director of FOUR DIED TRYING, a feature documentary and series
on the major assassinations of the 1960's and their calamitous impact on the country. To join the struggle for
justice for Dr. King, Malcolm X, and John and Robert Kennedy.
The Interviewee:
Professor Knut Wittkowski was head of The Rockefeller University's Department of
Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design for 20 years.
Journeyman Pictures sits down with Prof Knut Wittkowski to discuss lockdowns, social-distancing and the best way
to handle the spread of a new disease.
Dennis Brown
,
Another superb contribution by Off Guardian.
In Canada, according to the Covid-19 Daily E.P.I Update
of April 7th there have been 17,046 confirmed cases out of a total population in Canada of 37.6M.
344 have died.
62% of all reported hospitalizations, 62% reported I.C.U. admissions , and 92% of deaths occurred
among individuals 60-79 years of age. 73% of hospitalized cases reported having one or more
pre-existing conditions.
The data in Canada , at least, seems to conform very closely to Prof. Knut Wittkowski's hypothesis
in this video. What a outrage that this information is being deliberately ignored by the mainstream
media!
Thank you again Off Guardian for providing this vitally needed information.
Fair dinkum
,
Oligarchs and their underlings (politicians and corporate types) love to hold court, particularly over
a banquet at their preferred eating establishments.
With most of these establishments closed due to lockdowns, where are the parasites dining?
Do they have five star glutton rooms hidden away?
Will they tire of take away meals?
How can they strut their stuff without the requisite surroundings?
It's a problem that must keep them awake at night.
Gary Weglarz
,
We were moved to tears and ready to go to war when they told us about those non-existent "Kuwaiti
incubator babies" that Iraqi soldiers were throwing on the cold hard ground to die – but weren't!
We were paralyzed and terrified when they told us that steel and concrete buildings can simply
vaporize into billowing dust clouds in mid- air – so we in America gladly became in effect a
surveillance police state complete with torture chambers.
We were filled with anger and fear when they told us about those non-existent Iraqi weapons of mass
destruction about to obliterate us at any moment but, uhh, it appears in retrospect they didn't happen
to exist in this particular universe that we currently inhabit! Perhaps in another dimension?
We were revolted and filled with outrage when they told us about Gaddafi's non-existent "viagra
fueled rape camps" – just before we turned Libya into rubble and an open slave market – "in order to
save the women" – who weren't being raped in non-existent viagra fueled rape camps. Many admire
Hillary because she valiantly stood with those women, who weren't being raped, in those non-existent
rape camps – and Hillary of course could not contain her glee when publicly discussing the murder of a
head of state and the destruction of an entire nation – cackling like the psychopath that she is.
We were repulsed when they told us about Assad's deranged non-existent gas attacks on his own
people done for "kicks" no less – as the valiant White Helmeted jihadist crazies we in the West
supported fearlessly slaughtered innocent civilians – well, let's not talk about that right now –
let's focus on something upbeat, like those film awards the White Helmets got for their feature length
– "documentary" – entered in the "complete freaking fantasy" category – always a Hollywood favorite.
And we were no doubt all moved to loathing and contempt and to deranged Cold War deja vu fervor
when they told us for three straight years that – "Russia hacked American democracy" – installing in
office an orange haired, gonad grabbing, "Putin Puppet!" Surely there is a good reason they then gave
said "Putin Puppet" renewed "Patriot Act" powers and more military spending money than he asked for –
all in such defiance of rational thought and argument that it should make one's head hurt. Alas, here
in America the ability to experience cognitive dissonance appears to have evaporated among the masses
simultaneously with the loss of critical thinking abilities.
So buoyed by this brief trip down memory lane we should quite naturally all credulously believe
Western MSM and our political class now as they tell us that "they" – (err, uhh, I mean "the virus") –
crashed the global economy – leading them to then have no choice but to bail out our wealthiest
corporations and our biggest banks – "for our own good" – of course, well, it goes without saying
doesn't it?
And unfortunately they now will have to keep us all under house arrest until this all blows over –
"for our own good!" I mean it is certainly only "for our own good" that they don't want to risk
another Occupy Wall Street insurrection, or want to take the risk that the Yellow Vests might start
building working guillotines in every village and every neighborhood in Paris.
I mean and sure it may kind of look bad that American elites have continued to use amoral sanctions
to brutalize, starve and kill the poor in Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Yemen and elsewhere – WHILE they
are showing their vast concern for the rest of us by placing us under house arrest, but let's face it
– "it is for those poor people's own good," I mean their starvation and dying of course, because we
have to regime-change those folks governments "in order to save them." Or something like that.
I mean think about it, what have our elites ever done to cause us to so much as question their
humanitarian values and actions? Ok, ok, that half million dead Iraqi children "are worth it" shtick
wasn't their best PR moment, but hey, they obviously "meant well" by killing a half a million kids --
right? I mean I'm sure they had their "reasons." Just like they have their reasons for killing poor
people all around the world every day.
– I must confess that I am absolutely stunned and disheartened by how few people I know who are so
much as registering even a faint whiff of skepticism about what is happening globally, and the
narratives being spun by MSM and the political class. I know so few who are asking even the most basic
and fundamental questions about our so called "pandemic," our lock down, and our collective loss of
liberties – even among those who didn't swallow the propaganda narratives on Russiagate or Syria.
Instead we appear to have a massive segment of the American population simply willing to allow the
same amoral always lying war-criminal media and political class – (which ALWAYS serve elite interests)
– to "tell them how to think" and "what to think" and "how high" to jump – and now even "when they can
leave their own home." An absolutely stunning level of obedience – to say the least.
Maxwell
,
"I'm not paid by the [corporation] government, so I'm entitled to actually do science."
Says it all.
Shaking My Head
,
I am not some kind of anti-government conservative at all, but I do think the dependencies
academics, doctors, and scientists have on what can be very uncertain government funding is the
reason why I haven't seen any loud critical voices from them in Canada. All the scholars whether of
humanities or law, where are they in denouncing an obvious transformation into a police state? All
the talk about 'civil liberties' over the years and how they must be protected, where did all of
that go? Not one peep these last weeks! And as for doctors and scientists, why aren't there are any
like the Germans such as Sucharit Bhakdi or Wolfgang Wodarg or Knut Wittkowski, or Americans such
as John Ioannidis, Jay Bhattacharya, Michael Levitt, (John/Jay/Michael all at Stanford), Shiva
Ayyadurai (I'm a bit suspicious of his political aspirations though). And there are other Germans I
saw mentioned in the experts article on Off-Guardian or Swiss Propaganda Research article. Yet in
Canada, it's total silence. But if you look on Twitter, there are a number of everyday people from
the US and UK who are criticizing the phoniness and deception as they see it. So if the common
people can call things out, where are the others with more status and reach? It's sickening.
Sam
,
I've been thinking this since this all blew up. Bhattacharya said (in
this
interview) that he got a deal of backlash from colleagues over his WSJ article raising
questions about the fatality estimates: he was told to "get with the program". Groupthink is
very powerful today, more powerful than I remember in my lifetime, and few will buck the party
line. It's indeed sickening and disturbing.
Ken
,
But as self-appointed lord and emperor of the world, Bill Gates, has said we can't have herd immunity.
Bill Gates has also donated to Imperial College (I saw a comment stating he was the biggest
donor but I didn't have time to research that):
https://philanthropynewsdigest.org/news/gates-foundation-awards-35-million-for-mosquito-research
"With its latest award of $35 million, the foundation has now invested a total of $75 million in
the Target Malaria project, which is based at Imperial College, London"
In strict meaning the pandemic is when the the particular infection increases mortality
in all affected countries... It did not happened.
Doctortrinate ,
Latest figures Gov uk. Deaths registered in the year-to-date, Week 1 to 13. Looking at the
year-to-date (using refreshed data to get the most accurate estimates), the number of deaths
is currently lower than the five-year average. The current number of deaths is 150,047, which
is 3,350 fewer than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 27 March 2020, 647
mentioned the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the death certificate; this is 0.4% of all deaths.
In recent decades, flu season has often peaked sometime from January to March, and this is a
major driver in total deaths. The average daily number of deaths from December through March
is over eight
thousand .
So far, total death data is too preliminary to know if there has been any significant
increase in total deaths as a result of COVID-19, and this is an important metric, because it
gives us some insight into whether or not COVID-19 is driving total death numbers well above
what would otherwise be expected.
Indeed, according to some sources, it is not clear that total deaths have increased
significantly as a result of COVID-19. In a March 30 article for The Spectator , former UK
National Health Service pathologist John Lee noted that the current number of deaths from
COVID-19 does not indicate that the UK is experiencing " excess deaths ." Lee
writes
:
The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at
the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or
month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time
of writing, 422 deaths are linked to Covid-19 -- so 0.8 per cent of that expected total. On a
global basis, we'd expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The
world's 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 per cent of that total. These figures might
shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with
(such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global
reactions.
How do these numbers look in the United States? During March of 2020, there were 4,053
COVID-19 deaths according to Worldometer. That is 1.6 percent of total deaths in March 2019
(total data on March 2020 deaths is still too preliminary to offer a comparison). For context,
we could note that total deaths increased by about four thousand from March 2018 to March 2019.
So for March, the increase in total deaths is about equal to what we already saw as a pre-COVID
increase from March 2018 to March 2019.
As Lee notes, total COVID-19 deaths could still increase significantly this season, but even
then we must ask what percentage of total deaths warrants an international panic. Is it 5
percent? Ten percent? The question has never been addressed, and so far, a figure of 1 percent
of total deaths in some places is being treated as a reason to forcibly shut down the global
economy.
Yet, as a CDC report recently noted , pneumonia deaths have often
been far more common than COVID-19 deaths are right now: "Based on National Center for Health
Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on March 26, 2020, 8.2 percent of the
deaths occurring during the week ending on March 21, 2020 (week 12), were due to [pneumonia and
influenza]."
Meanwhile there is a trend toward to attributing more of those pneumonia deaths to COVID-19
rather than influenza, although this doesn't actually mean the total mortality rate has
increased. The CDC report continues: "the percent of all deaths with Influenza listed as a
cause have decreased (from 1.0% to 0.8%) over this same time period. The increase in pneumonia
deaths during this time period are likely associated with COVID-19 rather than influenza." This
doesn't represent a total increase in pneumonia deaths, just a change in how they are
recorded.
This reflects an increased focus on attributing deaths to COVID-19, as noted by Lee:
In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known
to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to
record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate -- contrary to usual practice for
most infections of this kind. There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and
Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making Covid-19 notifiable might
give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not.
It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are
recorded.
Given this rush to maximize the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19, what will April's
data look like? It may be that COVID-19 deaths could then indeed number 10 or 20 percent of all
deaths.
But the question remains: will total deaths increase substantially compared to April 2019 or
April 2018? If they don't, this will call into question whether or not COVID-19 is the engine
of mortality that many government bureaucrats insist it is. After all, if April's mortality
remains "about the same" as the usual total and comes in around 230,000–235,000, then
obsessive concern over COVID-19 would be justified only if it can be proven April 2020 deaths
would have plummeted year-over-year had it not been for COVID-19.
Update:
Meanwhile the CDC is instructing medical staff to report deaths as COVID-19 deaths even when
no test has confirmed the presence of the disease. In
a Q and A on death certificates published by the CDC on March 24, the agency advises:
COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease
caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death . Certifiers should include as
much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory
testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may
have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. [emphasis in
original.]
This is extremely likely to inflate the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 while
pulling down deaths attributed to other influenza-like illnesses and to deaths caused by
pneumonia with unspecified origins. This is especially problematic since we know the
overwhelming majority of COVID-19 deaths occur in patients that are already suffering from a
number of other conditions. In Italy, for example, data
shows 99 percent of COVID-19 deaths occurred in patients who had at least one other
condition. More than 48 percent had three other conditions. Similar cases in the US are now
likely to be routinely reported simply as COVID-19 cases.
Unfortunately, because total death data is not reported immediately, we have yet to see how
this plays out.
We do know historically, however, that deaths attributed to flu and pneumonia over the past
decade have tended to make up around five to ten percent of all deaths, depending on the
severity of the "season." Last week (week 14, the week ending April 4) was the first week
during which COVID-19 deaths exceeded flu and pneumonia deaths, coming in at 11 percent of all
death for that week. The prior week, (week 13, the week ending Mar 28) COVID-19 deaths made up
3.3 percent of all deaths.
Until we have reliable numbers on all deaths in coming weeks, it will be impossible to know
the extent to which COVID-19 are "cannibalizing" flu and pneumonia deaths overall. That is, if
the COVID-19 totals skyrocket, but total deaths remain relatively stable, than we might guess
that many deaths formerly attributed simply to pneumonia, or to flu, are now being labeled as
COVID-19 deaths. Potentially, this could also be the case for other patients, such as those
with advanced cases of diabetes.
To add to the discussion of how the CDC's rules on assigning primary causation to coronavirus
for deaths (and analogously, how other nations medical Grey Eminences also handle this
issue), regardless of the presence of underlying co-morbidities, I drop this link here. It is
a quite well written comment from the poster, The Right Doctor, an older, senior physician
who explains the "cause of death" assignment process, and discusses past practices, and what
has changed in this with the advent of CoVID-19. Very illuminating.
The books are being cooked, not only in this way, but also by "lying with statistics"
through not having a reliable means of understanding the overall infection rate, nor the
mechanisms of infection. W
Without a handle on the overall infection rate in the population, it is child's play to
exaggerate the lethality by focusing solely on the death rate among those groups with
co-morbidities, the significance of which is itself a moving, anecdotal target absent focused
study.
Here is a report of a study to address those issues being implemented in Germany. Sorry,
the link is from The Guardian (I brandish a crucifix in one hand, and fondle my necklace of
heads of garlic with the other...), but it is still valuable in increasing understanding of
what we don't know, but should in order to make optimal policy choices.
Instead of a public health system, we have a private for-profit system for individuals lucky
enough to afford it and a rickety social insurance system for people fortunate enough to have a
full-time job.
At their best, both systems respond to the needs of individuals rather than the needs of the
public as a whole. In America, the word "public" – as in public health, public education
or public welfare – means a sum total of individual needs, not the common good.
Contrast this with America's financial system. The Federal Reserve concerns itself with the
health of financial markets as a whole. Late last week the Fed made $1.5 trillion available to
banks at the slightest hint of difficulties making trades. No one batted an eye.
When it comes to the health of the nation as a whole, money like this isn't available. And
there are no institutions analogous to the Fed with responsibility for overseeing and managing
the public's health – able to whip out a giant checkbook at a moment's notice to prevent
human, rather than financial, devastation.
Even if a test for the Covid-19 virus had been developed and approved in time, no
institutions are in place to administer it to tens of millions of Americans free of charge.
Local and state health departments are already barebones, having lost nearly a quarter of their
workforce since 2008, according to the National Association of County and City Health
Officials.
Healthcare in America is delivered mainly by private for-profit corporations which, unlike
financial institutions, are not required to maintain reserve capacity. As a result, the
nation's supply of ventilators isn't nearly large enough to care for projected numbers of
critically ill coronavirus victims unable to breathe for themselves. Its 45,000 intensive care
unit beds fall woefully short of the
2.9 million that are likely to be needed.
The Fed can close banks to quarantine financial crises but the US can't close workplaces
because the nation's social insurance system depends on people going to work.
Almost 30% of American workers have no paid sick leave from their employers, including 70%
of low-income workers earning less than $10.49 an hour. Vast numbers of self-employed workers
cannot afford sick leave. Friday's deal between House Democrats and the White House won't have
much effect because it exempts large employers and offers waivers to smaller ones.
Most jobless Americans don't qualify for unemployment insurance because they haven't worked
long enough in a steady job, and the ad-hoc deal doesn't alter this. Meanwhile, more than 30
million Americans have no health insurance. Eligibility for Medicaid, food stamps and other
public assistance is now linked to having or actively looking for work.
It's hard to close public schools because most working parents cannot afford childcare. Many
poor children rely on school lunches for their only square meal a day. In Los Angeles, about
80% of students qualify for free or reduced lunches and just under 20,000 are homeless at some
point during the school year.
There is no public health system in the US, in short, because the richest nation in the
world has no capacity to protect the public as a whole, apart from national defense. Ad-hoc
remedies such as House Democrats and the White House fashioned on Friday are better than
nothing, but they don't come close to filling this void.
The requirement will commence midnight as Thursday turns to Friday. Starting then, all
customers entering the necessary businesses that have been allowed to stay open despite the
quarantine must be wearing some kind of cloth mask. These businesses include grocery stores,
pharmacies, hotels, and any kind of taxi or ride-sharing service. These locations are permitted
to refuse service to anyone not covering their mouth and nose.
All employees of these businesses must wear masks as well, and employers must reimburse the
cost of such items. Included in the new rule are regulations on essential businesses mandating
that they ensure every worker has access to a clean restroom and has an opportunity to wash
their hands at a minimum of thirty-minute intervals. While Los Angeles public health officials
have recommended implementing the use of plexiglass doors between employees and customers where
possible, this was not included in the order
"America's major medical society specializing in the treatment of respiratory diseases has
endorsed using hydroxychloroquine for seriously ill hospitalized coronavirus patients.
The American Thoracic Society issued guidelines Monday that suggest COVID-19 patients with
pneumonia get doses of the anti-malaria drug.
"To prescribe hydroxychloroquine (or chloroquine) to hospitalized patients with COVID-19
pneumonia if all of the following apply: a) shared decision-making is possible, b) data can be
collected for interim comparisons of patients who received hydroxychloroquine (or chloroquine)
versus those who did not, c) the illness is sufficiently severe to warrant investigational
therapy, and d) the drug is not in short supply," the Thoracic Society said." NY Post
--------------
So, the Thoracic Society says 1- Hydrochloroquin is only rarely dangerous 2. It is widely
available and 3 - Why not give it a shot if the patient is in bad shape.
I could have bought some of this an Z-pac before the madness started. Like a lot of old SF
men I had quite a lot of medical instruction in training and assisted my team medical sergeants
in the their work among the unfortunate. IOW I self treat a lot and have a stash of
antibiotics, etc.
Fauci says we should never shake hands again and should expect the economy to be shut down
for 18 months. IMO if we accept the 18 month thing that cat won't bounce. pl
In the previous post about the use of chloroquine for treating Covid-19 I posted a link to a
research paper which concluded that there was no clinical benefit to its use for those
severely ill. As far as i know this was the first actual research performed on this subset of
the issue.
Below is another one I found this morning from the Pasteur Hospital in Nice. In this
instance they are using the hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin drug suggestion on more mildy ill
patients. This is the drug combination which so many have placed their hopes in a miracle on.
The result is that it has turned out to be so toxic that it had to be discontinued. This is
not the final answer as there are more variations to check out - but don't get your hopes too
high.
Thus we have no seen so far that this drug idea has either no effect or is too toxic.
Anecdotally, I and the teams I worked with when I was younger had to take choloroquine for
long periods of time. The frequency and unpleasantness of side effects were such that many
eventually refused to take the drug and took their chances with getting malaria - and we were
seeing malaria all the time so this was not an uniformed choice. I have questioned this idea
from the get go - but that is, of course, just a gut reaction and not valid or
scientific.
I think it fair to say the stress of the situation is driving us to grasp at straws and
hope for miracles. No one wants to wait the time it normally takes to work our way to a
scientific solution. But that is almost certainly what we are going to end up doing anyway as
the alternative has only worked on the rarest of occasions. A very interesting discussion can
also take place regarding the likelihood of developing a successful vaccine as after near 20
years of working on SARS and MERS there are still no vaccines for them approved.
Here as long thread of U.S.
hospitals firing people because their usual business no longer makes money:
U.S. healthcare system is so overwhelmed by COVID-19 that hospitals are laying off staff.
Yes, you read that right. Due to coronavirus lockdown and fears, no one's going except
in absolute emergencies. Hospitals are getting slammed--by lack of business.
...
No, we can't blame Trump for the entire privatized US healthcare system. However, he owns
part of this, as recently published information clearly shows. Having said that, his
shamelessness has, along with the Fed, and Congress, and the Supreme Court, and state
governments all over the country, have also clarified the state of play very well indeed.
This is a shithole kleptocracy merged with a kakistocracy. Voting has lost all of its
meaning. The only thing left to us is an active boycott in November, assuming the farce isn't
called off by a presidential decree. The ruling of the Supreme Court on the Wisconsin
election on Monday would seem to make the Court's approval of such a thing unlikely. However,
it's not exactly the same question, and the Federalists are nothing if not both inventive and
supine when it comes to the exercise of corporate-backed executive power. My guess is that it
won't happen, if only because Trump will be crushing the Dems in the polls.
AnneR , April 7, 2020 at 07:32
Indeed, Mr Cook, indeed.
The US (its ruling, plutocratic elites and their fellow traveling political hench-folks)
has never wanted to expend taxpayer (i.e. the hoi polloi's taxes, the rich-ultra rich not
paying any or very little of their "earnings" to the IRS) monies (however much cheaper, in
reality, such a medical system would have been and be) on a single payer,
free-at-point-of-service medical care system for all of its citizens. Such a system is
"communist," "socialist." The fact that the remainder of the western world has some such
construct without apparently being communist or even truly socialist escapes the US ruling
elite consciousness. Deliberately.
Indeed, the attitude among many of those elite 20%ers would seem to be along the lines of
an Arizonan politico who expressed this worldview on Obamacare (hardly single payer, not free
at point of service or anything close to, nor does it cover every American – the
poorest are beyond its scope): in answer to some question about the ACA, this politico
(doubtless with medical coverage paid for by taxpayers) said that some people could afford
Mercs, others Fords, some could only afford umpteenth-hand vehicles and then there were those
who couldn't afford any vehicle. Access to medical care falls along the same lines –
and that's the way things naturally are.
She was a Reprat – but Mr Biden thinks along the same lines, it would seem.
Yes, the US populace – the hoi polloi, vox populi, the bewildered herd, us –
want M4A and as a single payer non-profiteering system. Or most do. But the profiteering
companies – pharma, hospitals, clinics, med insurance companies, doctors, medical
staffing (for Emergency Depts etc.,) companies – do NOT want anything to do with such a
system. And they are among the election funders of those DC politicos (many themselves among
the rich) who balk at the very notion of M4A. The medical and the political system here is
corrupt. Not only does Power corrupt, but profiteering also corrupts and does so as
absolutely as absolute power.
And this system, this political, medical system isn't likely to change without some
drastic overhaul – and is that likely?
Other changes – increasing surveillance e.g. – may well take place. But profit
before life? One only has to consider the eagerness with which the US Congress – both
sides of the Janus party – signed onto the Strumpet's obscenely enormous MIC funding
last year, continuing the Profit before People (at home and in the countries devastated by
us) construct that is DC.
New new study found the reason for the effectiveness of chloroquine:
https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-19_Disease_ORF8_and_Surface_Glycoprotein_Inhibit_Heme_Metabolism_by_Binding_to_Porphyrin/11938173
In short, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has three protein configurations on its outside which attack
hemoglobine, dissolving the iron ion from the molecule. The hemoglobin looses the ability to
bind oxygen and CO2 without the iron, thus cannot transport it anymore (the effect of
hydocyanic acid or carbonmonoxide, but both block the binding location, they do not destroy
it).
As a consequence, the O2 load in the blood decreases dangerously even if the lungs still
are working. Chloroquine seems to cover the hemoglobine binding location, so the virus cannot
attack it anymore. Against the malaria parasite, the coverage by chloroquine seems to block
the parasite from consuming proteins from the blood cells which it needs for
reproduction.
Strange collection of features: The unique furine cleavage site (known from other,
completely different highly contagious flu viruses), the CD147 docking site (known only from
the dangerous Coxsakie virus and expressed strongly by cancer cells), the GRP78 docking site
(expressed by cells under stress) and the attack on hemoglobine, five distinctive pathways to
attack cells and cause damage. All not found in any other corona virus genome...
I note that the link posted by CK is not actual results of research into whether chloroquine
is effective regarding its use against covid-19 but rather an analysis of physical functions
which 'suggests' that it might be. Actual research is required to prove the point.
Conversely there is a new research report on the effectiveness of chloroquine on treating
those with severe symptoms from covid-19 just published and the conclusion for that set of
patients is that it has 'No Evidence of Rapid Antiviral Clearance or Clinical Benefit
..."
I have read articles from Dr's and PhD experts who postulate both ways on this issue.
Actual testing will be required to answer this and this first result is not optimistic at
least in the case of severe symptoms.
At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the
2019-2020 flu season, according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention. More than 26 million Americans have fallen ill with flu-like symptoms.
"There is a deadly respiratory virus that is circulating throughout the United States, and
it is at its peak. It is not novel coronavirus," said Dr. Pritish Tosh, an infectious disease
specialist with the Mayo Clinic, in Rochester, Minn.
This flu season has come in two waves and has been particularly hard on children, the
experts said.
The season started early, in October, with an unusual wave of influenza B virus.
Influenza B is less likely than other strains to mutate and become more virulent. That means
it poses a greater threat to young people than to older folks, who may have gained immunity
because they encountered the strain before.
The percentage of deaths attributed to flu and pneumonia currently is 6.8%, which is below
the epidemic threshold of 7.3% , according to the CDC.
Turkey has ordered all citizens to wear masks when shopping or visiting crowded public
places and announced it will start to deliver masks to every family, free of charge, as
infections sharply increase in the country of 80 million.
Turkey has over 30,000 confirmed cases of the virus and has registered 649 deaths. More than
1,300 patients are in intensive care units and at least 600 medical workers have been infected,
according to figures released by the Health Ministry.
The number of cases places Turkey among the top 10 worst
affected countries , a sharp rise since its first confirmed death from the disease on March
17.
Health Minister Fahrettin Koca, however, said on Monday that the increase in confirmed cases
was low when compared with the increase in testing, which has been ramped up to more than
20,000 per day.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has introduced measures to contain the spread of the virus,
asking people to stay at home and imposing a curfew on those over 65 and under 20, but
resisting a nationwide lockdown.
New York has lost a staggering 20,000 hospital beds over the last two decades to budget cuts
and insurance overhauls, complicating local and state efforts to battle the coronavirus,
according to records and experts.
The Empire State had 73,931 licensed hospital beds in 2000 before years of cuts and closures
shrank the number to just 53,000 in 2020, according to records obtained by the New York State
Nurses Association from the state Health Department and stats provided by officials.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday the health officials believe they will need anywhere from
55,000 to 110,000 hospital beds to treat the expected wave of coronavirus victims.
"New York has closed too many beds. They went too far," said Judy Wessler, former head of
the NY Commission on the Public's Health System, about the 28 percent drop in beds.
Those cutbacks mean the state is in a significantly deeper deficit as it searches for ways
to expand its capacity to treat COVID-19 victims.
"This is going to crash the health care system," Cuomo warned, as he again reiterated his
request to President Trump that the
Army Corps of Engineers be dispatched to help New York state build emergency hospital
capacity.
But now, after evidence that asymptomatic people can spread the disease, the CDC is
recommending that all Americans wear masks when out in public to help prevent the spread of the
coronavirus. And while the CDC now recommends Americans wear masks, they recommend only cloth
coverings, or homemade masks, and ask that medical-grade masks still be reserved for health
care professionals.
The move is a win for those who have been publicly questioning the government's guidance and
edges the U.S. closer to the practices of East Asian countries where masks are commonplace.
But the U.S. is not alone in its reluctance to recommend the widespread use of masks. The
WHO is standing its ground in saying that masks won't help prevent the spread of disease.
Though, notably, it said that countries where cleaning and physical distancing are difficult
could consider widespread mask wearing.
The science of infection hasn't changed, but experts point to a better understanding of how
the coronavirus spreads as the reason for the shift. Since some people are asymptomatic and
could still be infecting others without knowing they have the disease, experts say it is
prudent for everyone to wear a mask.
@Dreadilk By
wearing a mask you reduce the probability of getting infected by x while a mask on an
infected person reduces the probability of infecting another person by y and
y>x (I can't formally prove this inequality at this point but it is intuitively
obvious to me.). Since you do not know whether you are infected or not by wearing a mask you
are protecting other more than yourself on average. This is a rare case when a selfish motive
to save your own life produce a greater good. Not wearing a mask would be an inverse-altruism
where you are willing to sacrifice yourself for an idea of killing others , i.e., doing what
a suicide bombers do who are aware of y>x calculus.
C1ue @91: why the exponential growth observed now if the virus has been around for months?
The numbers you see reported is cased discovered by testing. Testing is what ramps up
exponentially now. The % of tested people showing the virus is only very mildly growing. In
other words, the underlying base of infected is large and relatively stable as part of the
total population. The more you test, the more you find.
Tom @151: "covid causing nerve damage" . That's conjecture stemming from the fact that all
test-positive deceased are declared covid victims, including those without symptoms. Rather
than state the correct cause of death for almost all those deaths (old age - average age 81
of corona deaths in Italy, 99% with one or multiple chronic diseases, dehydration of care
patients whose staff ran back to their Eastern European homes under the panic of border
closures, hospitals overwhelmed like every flu winter and now compounded by panic, doctors
stuck at home looking after their children), new unseen ways of covid killing are
invented.
Of 200,000 people die in the US with COVID-19 out of a population of 330 million people that
is 0.06% of the population. That is to say a six hundredths of a percent chance of dying from
the virus. Destroying the economy and losing our rights for a 0.06% chance of dying is not
reasonable.
And worldwide, Covid-19 Worldwide deaths as of April 4th, 64,518 divided by 7,000,000,000
world population. = 9.21 millionths of one percent. Corona virus, Covid-19, is IMO an
orchestrated hysteria.
Consider:
World Health Organization: Yearly Death Rate Comparisons
• Influenza (Various): 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths
• Cholera: 21 000 to 143 000 deaths
• Malaria: 405 000 deaths (2018)
• Typhoid: 128 000 and 161 000 deaths.
• HIV-related causes: 770 000 deaths (2018)
• Measles: 140 000 people died (2018) – mostly children under the age of 5
• Pneumonia: 808 694 children deaths under 5 years in 2017.
• Drowning: 320 000 deaths
• Road Traffic Crashes: 1.35 million deaths
"... What has happened to the British working class ethos of never believing the authorities? Where I live they're more likely to grass you up than question anything. ..."
"... Also if someone has to go to emergency for other reasons: heart attack, stroke, even a broken leg, if the conditions there are worsened by excess patients who should not be there, they too being weak, may catch some infection, which could in their case due to the secondary issues make them worse, and give them severe breathing issues and so on, which in a normal year they would avoid, because excess contagious patients are not crowded in hospitals when they dont need to be in hospital. ..."
Covid19 Death Figures "A Substantial Over-Estimate" Bizarre guidelines from health
authorities around the world are potentially including thousands of deceased patients who were
never even tested Kit Knightly
Prof Walter Ricciardi, advisor to Italy's health minister, explained this was caused by the
"generous" way the Italian government handles death certificates:
The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the
people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the
coronavirus.
Essentially, Italy's death registration process does not differentiate between those who
simply have the virus in their body , and those who are actually killed by it
.
Given the amount of fear and panic Italy's comparatively alarming numbers caused around the
world, you would think other nations would be eager to avoid these same mistakes.
Surely all the other countries of the world are employing rigorous standards for delineating
who has, and has not, fallen victim to the pandemic, right?
Wrong.
In fact, rather than learning from Italy's example, other countries are not only repeating
these mistakes but going even further.
In Germany, for example, though overall deaths and case-fatality ratio are far lower than
Italy's, their public health agency is still engaging in similar practice.
On March 20th the President of Germany's Robert Koch
Institute confirmed that Germany counts any deceased person who was infected with
coronavirus as a Covid19 death, whether or not it actually caused death.
In Heinsberg, for example, a 78-year-old man with previous illnesses died of heart
failure, and that was without Sars-2 lung involvement. Since he was infected, he naturally
appears in the Covid 19 statistics.
How many "Covid19 deaths" in Germany, fall into this bracket? We don't know, and will likely
never know.
But at least Germany is actually limiting itself to test positive cases.
In the United States, a
briefing note from the CDC's National Vital Statistics Service read as follows [our
emphasis]:
It is important to emphasise that Coronavirus Disease 19, or Covid-19, should be reported
for all decedents where the disease caused or is presumed to have caused or contributed to
death.
"Presumed to have caused"? "Contributed"? That's incredibly soft language, which could
easily lead to over-reporting.
The referenced detailed "guidance" was released April 3rd , and is no
better [again, our emphasis]:
In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected
or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty),
it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as "probable" or "presumed."
In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a
COVID–19 infection was likely.
Are careful records being kept to separate "Covid-19" from "presumed Covid-19"? Are the
media making sure they respect the distinction in their reporting?
Absolutely not.
Whenever the alleged casualties are referenced we are fed one large all-inclusive number,
without context or explanation, which – thanks to lax reporting guidelines – could
be entirely false.
Government agencies all across the UK are doing the same thing.
Northern Ireland's HSC Public Health Agency is releasing weekly surveillance bulletins on
the pandemic, in those reports
they define a "Covid19 death" as :
individuals who have died within 28 days of first positive result, whether or not COVID-19
was the cause of death
NHS England's Office of National Statistics releases weekly reports on nation-wide
mortality. Its
latest report (Week 12 – March 14th-20th) was released on March 31st and made special
mention of Covid19, explaining they were going to c hange the way they report the numbers in
future .
The ONS system is predicated on the registration of deaths. Meaning they count, not
the number of people who die every week, but the number of deaths registered per week.
This, naturally, leads to slight delays in the recording of numbers as the registration process
can take a few days.
However, with coronavirus deaths, since its a "national emergency", they are now including
"provisional figures" which will be "included in the dataset in subsequent weeks". This leaves
them wide open to – either accidentally or deliberately – reporting the same
deaths twice . Once "provisionally", and then once "officially" a week later.
That's just one peculiar policy decision. There are many others.
Up until now, the ONS reported those Covid19 numbers collated by the Department of Health
and Social Care (DHSC). The DHSC records only those who died in hospital and have tested
positive for the coronavirus as Covid19 deaths.
BUT, from now on, the ONS will also include Covid19 deaths "in the community" in their
statistics. That "includes those not tested for Covid19" and where " suspected
Covid19″ [our emphasis] is presumed to be a "contributory factor".
The official NHS guidance for doctors filling out death certificates is
just as vague [our emphasis]:
if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result
has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give 'COVID-19' as the cause of death, and
then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of there being no
swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement .
The government is telling doctors it is OK to list "Covid-19" as a cause of death when there
is literally no evidence the deceased was infected . That means there are potentially
huge numbers of "Covid19 deaths" that were never even tested for the disease.
Further, any possible mistakes will never be noticed or rectified, thanks to recent changes
to the law.
Usually, any death attributed to a "notifiable
disease" had to be referred to a coroner for a jury hearing.
Further, according to the
office of the Chief Coroner , the Coronavirus Bill means that these deaths don't have to
be referred to a coroner at all , and that medical practitioners can sign off a cause of
death for a body they have never even seen :
Any registered medical practitioner can sign an MCCD [Medical Certificate for Cause of
Death], even if the deceased was not attended during their last illness and not seen after
death, provided that they are able to state the cause of death to the best of their knowledge
and belief.
Deaths "in the community" can be listed as Covid19 deaths without being tested for
the disease, or even seen by a doctor at all . These deaths will not necessarily be
referred to a coroner, and certainly not heard by a jury.
By enacting this legislation the UK government has not only made false reporting of Covid19
deaths more likely , they actively removed the safeguards designed to correct it.
Recording accurate fatality numbers in this situation is borderline impossible.
This is, at best, totally irresponsible and at worst incredibly sinister.
Now, before you roll your eyes at the whacky alternate media and their crazy paranoia, the
idea deaths are being over-estimated is not a fringe concept or a "conspiracy theory". It is
actually addressed in the mainstream frequently, people just seem to not hear it, drowned out
as it is by the fear-inducing headlines.
Dr John Lee, a professor of pathology and retired consulting pathologist with the NHS, wrote
in a
column for the Spectator :
Why Covid-19 deaths are a substantial
over-estimate
Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in
the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this
matters.
[ ]
This nuance is crucial – not just in understanding the disease, but for
understanding the burden it might place on the health service in coming days. Unfortunately,
nuance tends to be lost in the numbers quoted from the database being used to track
Covid-19
[ ]
This data is not standardised and so probably not comparable, yet this important caveat is
seldom expressed by the (many) graphs we see. It risks exaggerating the quality of data that we
have.
In fact, Dr Lee goes out of his way to emphasise:
The distinction between dying 'with' Covid-19 and dying 'due to' Covid-19 is not just
splitting hairs.
The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with
the coronavirus infection in their body – because it is a notifiable disease cases have
to be reported.
But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death.
It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of
something else.
These absurd rules contributed to this recent example, referenced in the BBC article, but
not widely reported at the time:
An 18-year-old in Coventry tested positive for coronavirus
the day before he died and was reported as its youngest victim at the time. But the hospital
subsequently released a statement saying his death had been due to a separate "significant"
health condition and not connected to the virus.
This story is completely true. The boy was widely reported as the UK's "youngest coronavirus
victim" on
March 24th , before the hospital issued a statement saying:
[The hospital] had tested for COVID-19 on the day before he died, but this was not linked
to his reason for dying.
Despite the hospital correcting the press, the case was still being reported in the tabloids
a week later on March 31st .
However, the important detail here is being lost: Going by the current NHS rules, despite
the hospital officially saying it was not his cause of death, this boy is still part of the
official coronavirus fatality statistics.
How many more people fit that profile? We will never know.
*
Italy, Germany, the United States, Northern Ireland and England.
That's five different governments, across four countries, all essentially saying it's OK to
just assume a patient died of Covid19, and then add that to the official statistics.
Is that really responsible practice during a potential pandemic?
Are any other countries doing the same?
To what extent can we trust any official death statistics at all, at this point?
As Dr Lee points out, Covid19 is not a disease that presents with a unique – or even
rare – collection of symptoms. The range of severity and type of presentation is in line
with literally dozens of extremely common respiratory infections.
You cannot see "fever" and "cough" and then diagnose "probable covid19" with even the
slightest chance of accuracy.
This has become one of those nuggets of information we all know by heart, but between 290000
and 650000 people die of flu, or "flu like illness", every year. If just 10% of those cases are
incorrectly assumed to be "probable" coronavirus infections, then the fatality numbers are
totally useless.
At a time when good, reliable information is key to saving lives and preventing mass-panic,
global governments are pursuing policies which make it near-impossible to collect that data,
whilst stoking public fear.
Due to these policies, the simple fact is we have no reliable way of knowing how many
people have died from this coronavirus . We have no hard data at all. And governments and
international organisations are going out of their way to keep it that way.
What has happened to the British working class ethos of never believing the authorities?
Where I live they're more likely to grass you up than question anything.
Seamus Padraig ,
You know what I think? You know how economist John Williams has that website
shadowstats.com , where he shows you what the real unemployment and inflation figures
would be if the government and the media didn't lie? Well, I think there should a shadowstats
for Corona virus infection figures, too.
tonyopmoc ,
"It's time we started asking why."
The answer is quite simple. The "Authorities" are doing the exact reverse of what they are
claiming to do. I don't necessarily blame them, because they are brainwashed too, as are the
vast majority across most of the world.
They are trying to kill most of us off, and I think they are highly likely to succeed.
This used to be a crazy conspiracy theory – which even I didn't take seriously.
The Georgia Guidestones (1980) are hardly Stonehenge "Maintain humanity under 500,000,000
in perpetual balance with nature.", and have always been dismissed on the basis, that the USA
contains some very rich and powerful religious nutters, but it seems we completely
underestimated how powerful they are. The "elite" Malthusians are almost certainly of British
origin.
I never thought they could pull this off on a world wide basis, but they have. They have
succeeded in terrorising almost everyone.
It's not COVID – The Coronavirus that will do it, but the panic reaction to it, and
the total crashing of the world wide economy. Supply lines are certain to break down, and in
fact already have done for the most vulnerable.
Not only do I see little if any resistance to this madness, most people are fully engaged
and a part of it.
The only response I have to it, is to become as self sufficient as possible, by digging up
my garden to grow food. Most people think I am nuts, and think everything will be back to
normal in a few weeks time, but the people in control, would not have crashed the entire
world economy in pursuit of their Malthusian Agenda, to give up after a few weeks, when their
well designed plans, all based on the most powerful psychological techniques are working so
well, just as they envisaged, and game tested starting of course with 9/11 – where most
people still believe the official story, which is literally impossible, because it does not
conform with the most basic laws of physics and maths.
Tony
Willem ,
Here is an idea
1) Test everyone who according to the triage system should be tested on covid19 with
PCR
2) distinguish pcr+ vs pcr- negative and follow both groups over time (for example 28
days)
3) then see which group dies more often: the pcr positive group or the positive negative
group
4) the relative risk will then show the excess risk of pcr positive Covid 19 vs Covid 19
negative cases
I am surprised that this research has not been done yet. It is plain and simple but
apparantly nobody cares about a comparison group. And that is weird, as in normal
circumstances you always compare with your competing neighbor, football club, fellow student,
etc. But for Covid19 comparisons don't matter. The mortality rate is just high (compared to
what?)
Mucho ,
Last night on Steven Nolan, quite early on in the show, a genuine NHS worker called in to
relay his experience. He said that where they suspect Covid19 in a patient, sometimes they
have to do up to four tests to get back the Covid positive result they are looking for.
Utterly insane. They get three negatives on the bounce, but when the fourth one rolls in
positive, it's all good and Covid19 is established. (are the tests for Coronavirus Normal or
specifically Covid19?) No need to take into account the potential for a false positive,
because they already know what the patient has. This is barmy. Gotta start raising the alarm
people. This is not a drill. (Well maybe it is, but a drill for something much effing worse
so alarm bells still totally necessary).
I am very concerned about the building of these "Nightingale" hospitals. What have they
got lined up for us to make sure these places are full of patients on ventilators? Because we
have firmly established that this current pandemic is a fake. If it were half as bad as they
were predicting, people would be dropping like flies in the UK by now, but we all know that
they're not. They have rigged the legal system and all kinds of checks and balances have been
nullified to enable them to give the appearance of a pandemic, but what is the endgame
here?
"We're not gonna have a war, we're gonna the appearance of a war." From Wag The Dog,
Brendon O Connell fave. Best case scenario is that the new hospitals are there for window
dressing to give the scam crisis authenticity through the visual action being taken, photo
opportunities and emotional manipulation of the public becoming invested when they see "our
boys" and the NHS "pulling together" in the crisis and doing everything they can. It
psychologically consolidates the slave/master relationship very nicely too. Worst case
scenario, genocide incoming. That we can legitimately raise these issues is symptomatic of a
very real disease that is controlling our world.
fritzi cohen ,
We need to expose industrial agriculture's possible contribution. Rob Wallace wrote a book
about
this in 2016. Of course no one paid attention even if they knew about his research.
The American Scholar: How Global Agriculture Grew a
theamericanscholar.org/who-should-we-blame-for-coronavirus
Evolutionary biologist Rob Wallace, of the Institute for Global Studies at the University
of Minnesota, has some answers. For the past 25 years, he's been studying the evolution and
spread of influenzas and other pathogens.
The latest expert to emerge slamming CoronaPanic is Dr. Knut Wittkowski, who attacks head-on
at the very premise, less on the margins over numbers (which is also important work).
Wittkowski says long-term social distancing for the vast majority, low-risk people, does
more harm than good, even from a strictly disease-control standpoint (will cause more death,
not less) and also repeatedly questions the wild projections. He says the coronavirus small
spike in flu is totally unremarkable and behaves like every other observed flu pandemic does,
not a second-rate-movie-like World-Shattering Mass Killer.
Just finished listening to the government press conference here in the UK (Lt Gruber hosting
it). Two mildly challenging questions, both sidestepped. The final question from The Scotsman
newspaper was much more challenging, about the status of the Scottish Chief Medical Officer.
This question was completely evaded by Hancock, and he didn't even allow the Deputy Chief
Medical Officer to say what she thought, or confirm whether she's visited her second home, if
indeed she has one. What a bloody shower they are!
Bettynho Zirigdum ,
Here in Brazil the Minister of Health authorized burials without a death certificate. When
the death cause is not known, the death "may" be recorded as a Covid-19 death.
It's only a mistake if you think their main objectives are to tell the public the truth and
protect public health. Given that the lockdowns, discouragement of exercise, putting millions
out of work and torpedoeing health budgets will kill far more than the virus, then there are
plainly other agendas here.
Look at how nervous the politicians get when the public aren't scared 'enough' of the virus.
And this evening, in the UK, we even have Queen drafted in to frighten people and stir up
panic. How low can they go?
MrChops ,
Forgot to join in with the clap-a-thon for the health workers
Why not join Peekay for some 'Effin n jeffin' for the NWO ..
A sample: "The medical specialist portal Rxisk points out that various drugs can increase
the risk of infection with corona viruses by up to 200% in some cases. It is also known that
vaccination against influenza viruses may increase the risk of coronavirus disease."
stonecircle ,
Interesting about the possible increase in susceptibility to severe C-19 due to having the
flu jab. Tragically many nurses and doctors are dying from C-19 even though they are
comparatively young. Medical staff are put under a lot of pressure to have the flu jab each
winter. It would be very interesting to see some hard data investigating this issue.
Anecdotally: I had C-19 in mild form last week – high temperature, headache –
but was almost better in two days. I am aged 70 and never have the flu jab as I worry it
might weaken my immune system. All my peers have the jab and have had more persistent
illnesses this winter than I have.
MLS ,
We have no idea how many health workers are dying of COVID19. All we know is how many of them
have it on their death certificate.
Not the same thing. As this article should have made clear to you.
And let's also remember the euromomo statistics show that excess deaths are not happening.
The pandemic is a lie created by reclassifying ordinary flu deaths as COVID19
crank ,
Seeing as the daily (total) death rate in the UK averages about 1600 per day, then I would
like to think that 'COVID deaths' might top out at that. However, the effects of lockdown
will push the death rate up considerably, I would predict, so who knows, maybe Trump is
actually right in saying there will be 'lots of death' ? In the statistical mobius strip/
self re-inforcing/ feedback loop so clearly described by Kit, all these deaths could, in the
end, be classified as 'COVID deaths'. In theory at least, to take the idea to the extreme,
the virus could be completely harmless and no more than a marker – a new means of
counting death.
Kafka could not have devised anything so insane.
"To what extent can we trust any official death statistics at all, at this point?" By
focusing on all cause mortality. These are reliable numbers. Presently, they do not show any
cause for concern. Yet the government and parliament have seen fit to introduce the
Coronavirus Act 2020, which gives the government the power to do anything, forever.
It is of some interest to note that Jeremy Hunt on LBC stated that the government had
prepared for a pandemic after an exercise in 2016 (when he was Health Secretary) by drafting
legislation to give the government emergency powers: which explains how they were able to
produce the three hundred and twenty page Coronavirus Bill so quickly.
Harry Stotle ,
Off-G has opened a really important conduit to talk about the Corona outbreak in term of its
wider economic and geopolitical context – this is to be applauded.
However I can promise you that in living memory there has never been a higher number of
patients suffering with ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) presenting to hospital
services, in such concentrated numbers over a relatively short time interval.
At the moment there is no way to stop COVID-19 related ARDS from developing, while
survival rates post-ventilation may be no better than 50/50 for vulnerable groups (older
patients with co-morbidities) – the jury is still out on this question.
Getting on for 5,000 deaths have been reported over a period of 4 weeks in the UK –
it is likely most are COVID-19 related because they exhibit the typical cluster of finding
(bilateral infiltrates on chest x/ray, hyperferritinaemia, lymphocytopaenia, elevated
d-dimer, elevated troponin and profound hypoxia on arterial blood gas despite hi-flow
oxygen). [citation requested -ed]
From conversations I have been privy to the approach of China has been held up as the key
strategy to control the spread (because of the difference in death rates pre and post
lockdown).
We will probably get a better idea of how things look once countries that find it
difficult to follow the Chinese model (because of things like poverty or over-crowding)
experience higher numbers of infections, and thus a growing numbers who develop ARDS –
India, Brazil and Palestine come to mind (I know the death toll is low at the moment).
None of this addresses the collateral damage bound to arise from lack of access to medical
services (because of the selective focus on COBID-19) or the economic time-bomb that will
explode once the size of the debt mushrooms out of control.
I am the first to admit I simply do not have any answers to these questions – I am
simply reporting what I have experienced on the shop floor.
anita ,
Usually if you have pneumonia, you stay at home and a doctor prescribes some basic antibiotic
as precaution. Even in severe cases among already fragile people, usually you then slowly
recover. Today if you have pneumonia, either you will have no doctor you can see in town, or
else they will send you to hospital because of the scare created, or else you yourself will
go to hospital because of the scare. This is just with pneumonia, there are plenty of other
illnesses like a very bad flu and so on that can be as bad.
Hence hospitals will get overloaded with patients which they dont usually get. And I can tell
you, having nursed my mother after her stroke, and having had to take her a few times to
emergency over a number of years, that emergency was each time overcrowded, and you are left
for hours in corridors. So hospitals are getting more people because of above than a normal
already overcrowded year.
As for the patients, those that would normally be cured at home, they are in hospital
surrounded by a whole lot of other people also with contagious diseases, apart from the
nosocomial disease you may anyhow catch in a hospital nowadays, and in conditions which
because of above have overwhelmed the hospital staff. So these patients being already
weakened get worse, possibly die.
Also if someone has to go to emergency for other reasons: heart attack, stroke, even a
broken leg, if the conditions there are worsened by excess patients who should not be there,
they too
being weak, may catch some infection, which could in their case due to the secondary
issues
make them worse, and give them severe breathing issues and so on, which in a normal year they
would avoid, because excess contagious patients are not crowded in hospitals when they dont
need to be in hospital.
On top of this there is a shortage of staff from other years for multiple reasons. I can
think of 2 without any effort:
In no other year staff with a virus but not ill (first they in that case would not know that
had a
virus) are not put on quarantine.
Secondly, at least in West Europe, a major proportion of the medical staff at all level is
from outside West Europe. Many, when the confinement measures and closures of borders were
made, have returned to the home countries, to be with their families, especially those coming
from countries that have not taken from such draconian measures.
Hence what you are actually seeing needs to be analysed to be understood. By merely saying
what you are seeing without analysing the cause is only likely to give a wrong justification
for the measures and increase the panic among people. As a result, the entire
thing is going to go worse.
Harry Stotle ,
We are talking about are two different conditions with different pathologies and different
outcomes – ARDS is a hyperinflammatory response, that in the context of COVID-19 is not
amenable to antibiotics.
Pneumonia is generally caused by a more localised lung infection although in some cases
pneumonia can lead to ARDS as a secondary complication.
In the case of COVID I am unaware of any therapy that presents ARDS ftom developing
– ARDS is what kills you.
Croach ,
The icnarc report raises a question.
If we have close to 5000 deaths but few hospitals are breaching ICU capacity (London and the
West Midlands, the two biggest disease clusters have reported they're within capacity,
nightingale hospital not needed yet etc.) why is icnarc reporting only 346 deaths in
ICU/Critical care beds?
Where are all the rest dying?
If there is spare capacity in ICU why weren't they in ICU beds when they died?
Also, do you know why the percentages in table 5 regarding the presence or not of severe
comorbidities (yes,no) add up to more than 100% in the covid-19 column and less than 100% in
the pneumonia comparison column?
Rhys Jaggar ,
This is precisely why everyone is so cynical. A propaganda narrative was written long ago and
the data is crafted around that narrative, rather than a true narraitve emerging from
whatever data happens to present itself.
The narrative is that CoVid19 is so dangerous that we will all have to be locked down
unless we all have a vaccination, testing and can be digitally tracked.
Now if that were even to be half acceptable, the digital certificates would be owned and
issued by the people, not by TNC billionaires. The data generated through tracking and
testing would never be owned privately and any public official disclosing such information to
corporations would be issued with the metaphorical Black Spot.
What this is all about is billionaires owning everyone lock stock and barrel: their
movements, their medical history, their private actions, their travel, their purchases etc
etc.
If Bill Gates thinks he can afford to buy all that data he is living in cloud cuckoo land.
I would value my lifetime private data at £100,000 minimum, so for 5 billion humans
(just for round figures), that might come to £500 trillion.
I think that is about 5,000 times Bill Gates' net worth ..
I have not signed away my private data to anyone, will not do so and consider it illegal
for anyone to nick it, pass it on, hand it over, sell it on etc etc etc.
bob ,
If people in the uk don't address the issue of organ donation then the state will claim it
owns their bodies – the law changed in April to make it important that people who do
not wish to donate their organs they have to opt out – at a time like this when
family/friends cannot be with a person dying who knows what's happening – does anybody
still trust the british state?? Get it sorted is my advice and don't let the state steel the
bodies
Mucho ,
The concept of policy decision being made and then a mad dash to find evidence to support
that policy decision was highlighted in this excellent report, which I think every reader
here will find interesting.
".. provided that they are able to state the cause of death to the best of their knowledge
and belief"
Surely, in Australia, many the death of many people will be the result of their sins,
especially if the conservatives continue to engineer health policies. This is the best of
their belief.
Shaking My Head ,
This circus is maddening. Is anyone else in Canada? There is a complete lack of dissent here.
The first Canadian I've seen online with any critical perspective is Rosemary Frei's article
here on Off-Guardian. Are there any other Canadians speaking out? It seems like people are
openly welcoming more of the police state rather than questioning anything.
AlexCanadianJones ,
Also in Canada. You aren't alone.
We have to keep in mind that everyone is at home isolated, everyone that feels and is
thinking the way do, feels they are alone and that other Canadians. The Media has
unprecedented influence during this crisis and they are cherry picking 'socially accepted
responses' to the virus to make us think we are in the minority, it is mind games to keep us
all feeling powerless.
Keep spreading your opinions, while we still have freedom of speech. Make sure all of
those in your life to you know are getting the information you are getting.
Shaking My Head ,
I hope you are right but it seems like Canadians are so much more acquiescent than the French
who have had mass protests. Here it seems you will get snitched out for walking in the park.
I saw a photo of several police in an empty park and the comments were all supportive of
these measures to 'keep us safe'. I suppose there could be a small but loud segment of the
population who are generally quite terrified of life, who feel powerless, and now are enabled
to exercise their inner authoritarian to grasp at some semblance of importance by
self-policing and policing others.
White House economic adviser got into a massive argument with the
coronavirus task force's Anthony Fauci over the doctor's ongoing resistance to the use of
hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, despite reports of the drug's widespread efficacy.
Numerous government officials were at the table, including Fauci, coronavirus response
coordinator Deborah Birx, Jared Kushner, acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf, and
Commissioner of Food and Drugs Stephen Hahn.
Behind them sat staff, including Peter Navarro, tapped by Trump to compel private
companies to meet the government's coronavirus needs under the Defense Production Act.
According to the report, towards the end of the meeting Hahn began a discussion of the
commonly used malaria drug hydroxychloroquine - which was recently rated the '
most effective therapy ' for coronavirus according to a global survey of more than 6,000
doctors .
After Hahn gave an update on various trials and real-world use of the drug, Navarro got up
and dropped a stack of folders on the table to pass around .
According to Axios 's source, " the first words out of his [Navarro's] mouth are
that the studies that he's seen, I believe they're mostly overseas, show 'clear therapeutic
efficacy,' " adding "Those are the exact words out of his mouth.
Fauci - who's not got his own Twitter hashtag, #FireFauci - began pushing back against
Navarro, repeating his oft-repeated contention that 'there's only anecdotal evidence' that the
drug works against COVID-19.
Navarro exploded - after Fauci's mention of anecdotal evidence "just set Peter off." The
economic adviser shot back "That's the science, not anecdote," while pointing to the stack of
folders on the desk, which included the results of studies from around the world showing its
efficacy.
Here's what unfolded next, via Axios :
Navarro started raising his voice, and at one point accused Fauci of objecting to Trump's
travel restrictions, saying, "You were the one who early on objected to the travel
restrictions with China," saying that travel restrictions don't work. (Navarro was one of the
earliest to push the China travel ban.)
Fauci looked confused, according to a source in the room. After Trump imposed the
travel restrictions, Fauci has publicly praised the president's restriction on travel from
China.
Pence was trying to moderate the heated discussion. "It was pretty clear that everyone
was just trying to get Peter to sit down and stop being so confrontational," said one of
the sources.
Eventually, Kushner turned to Navarro and said, "Peter, take yes for an answer,"
because most everyone agreed, by that time, it was important to surge the supply of the
drug to hot zones.
The principals agreed that the administration's public stance should be that the
decision to use the drug is between doctors and patients.
Trump ended up announcing at his press conference that he had 29 million doses of
hydroxychloroquine in the Strategic National Stockpile.
According to a source familiar with the coronavirus task force, "There has never been a
confrontation in the task force meetings like the one yesterday," adding "People speak up and
there's robust debate, but there's never been a confrontation. Yesterday was the first
confrontation."
Meanwhile, 37% of 6,227 doctors across 30 countries felt the drug was the "most effective
therapy" out of 15 options in treating coronavirus,
according to a poll reported by the Washington Times .
The drug has been prescribed in 72% of cases in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in
Mexico, 28% in France, and 23% in the USA . Overall, 19% of physicians have prescribed the drug
for high-risk patients, and 8% for low-risk patients.
More from the Sermo poll (via the Washington Times )
***
Sermo CEO Peter Kirk called the polling results a "treasure trove of global insights for
policy makers."
"Physicians should have more of a voice in how we deal with this pandemic and be able to
quickly share information with one another and the world," he said. "With censorship of the
media and the medical community in some countries, along with biased and poorly designed
studies, solutions to the pandemic are being delayed."
The survey also found that 63% of U.S. physicians believe restrictions should be lifted in
six weeks or more, and that the epidemic's peak is at least 3-4 weeks away.
The survey also found that 83% of global physicians anticipate a second global outbreak,
including 90% of U.S. doctors but only 50% of physicians in China.
On average, U.S. coronavirus testing takes 4-5 days, while 10% of cases take longer than
seven days. In China, 73% of doctors reported getting rest results back in 24 hours.
In cases of ventilator shortages, all countries but China said the top criteria should be
patients with the best chance of recovery (47%), followed by patients with the highest risk of
death (21%), and then first responders (15%) .
@Philip Owen
The most important thing is to have a cheap way to lower the R0.
Herd immunity is one, but it is expensive to get there.
Masks, widespread use of masks, is another, and it is relatively cheap. The virus lives
mainly in lungs, after all. Accidental touching of mask's dirty side etc. can be a problem,
but the virus would have to cross one mask to reach out, then go into air to touch another
surface, then wait for some accidents to happen to go through your mask to reach your
lungs.
Social distancing, widespread use of masks, and contact tracing, and 14 days wait period
for people suspected of infection. The pandemic can be controlled, and normal life can
largely resume when we wait for vaccine and cure.
It says there, black on white – " Detection of viral RNA may not indicate the
presence of infectious virus or that 2019-nCoV is the causative agent for clinical
symptoms. "
It make sense to wear mask only for a limited time (no more then 2 hours for a single mask)
and only in public places. Should always be combined with strict hand hygiene. Without hand
hygiene wearing of masks can be counterproductive.
Notable quotes:
"... Given the potential loss of effectiveness with incorrect usage, general advice should be to only use masks/ respirators under very particular, specified circumstances, and in combination with other personal protective practices. ..."
Conclusions: Despite a further review of all the available evidence up to 30 November
2012 there is still limited evidence to suggest that use of face masks and/or respirators in
health care setting can provide significant protection against infection with influenza when in
close contact with infected patients. Some evidence suggests that mask use is best undertaken
as part of a package or 'bundle' of personal protection especially including hand hygiene, the
new evidence provides some support to this argument particularly within the community or
household setting. Early initiation and regular wearing of masks/respirators may improve their
effectiveness in healthcare and household settings, again an argument marginally strengthened
by the updated evidence.
The effectiveness of masks and respirators is likely to be linked to consistent, correct
usage and compliance; this remains a major challenge – both in the context of a formal
study and in everyday practice.
Given the potential loss of effectiveness with incorrect usage, general advice should be
to only use masks/ respirators under very particular, specified circumstances, and in
combination with other personal protective practices.
... ... ...
None of the trials found, in the main analyses, a significant difference between
non-intervention and mask-only arms (surgical masks or N95/P2 respirators) in either clinically
diagnosed (influenza-like-illness/ILI) or laboratory-confirmed influenza. However in four of
the household trials, sub-analyses of the datasets revealed some evidence of protection.
One trial observed that household contacts who wore a P2 respirator 'all/most' of the time
were less likely to develop an influenza-like illness compared to less frequent users.
A second trial found a significant reduction in laboratory-confirmed influenza among
household contacts that began hand hygiene or hand hygiene plus a face mask within 36 hours of
the index case's illness.
... ... ...
One of these studies found that there was a significantly lower frequency of H1N1 pdm09
infection in healthcare workers wearing a mask when compared to those not wearing a mask.
Furthermore, a sub-analysis of nurses and nurse assistants in a seroprevalence study identified
an increased risk of acquiring H1N1 pdm09 infection when not wearing a mask, however while the
authors described this result as significant (p-value significant), the confidence interval was
not significant
... ... ...
There is some weak evidence to suggest that facemasks may be protective when they are used
early (after recognition of an index case in a household setting); if better compliance (using
the masks for longer periods of time) is achieved, and when combined with hand-washing
practicing.
Background
Minimising transmission of influenza requires a range of personal and public health measures
taken by individuals and communities such as respiratory etiquette and hand hygiene and
possibly proactive school closures (and other measures sometimes called social distancing). Use
of personal protective equipment is generally advised according to the risk of exposure to the
influenza virus and the degree of infectivity and human pathogenicity of the virus. A
particularly vexing issue for policy makers has been the paucity of scientific evidence upon
which to base guidance for use of masks and respirators in healthcare and community settings to
prevent transmission of seasonal, pandemic and animal influenzas.
... ... ...
Participants were allocated to wear either a fit-tested N95 or a surgical face mask when
providing care (including aerosol generating procedures) to patients with a febrile respiratory
illness during the influenza season. No difference in influenza infection was detected in the
two groups. The final hospital based study stratified 1441 health care workers across 15
Beijing hospitals to analyse the effectiveness of surgical masks compared to both fit-tested
and non-fit tested N95 respirators (6). The wearers of N95 respirators had lower, but
non-significant attack rates, compared to those wearing surgical masks. However the intention
to treat analysis (when adjusting for clustering of hospitals) identified that non-fit-tested
N95s had a statistically significant protective effect against clinical respiratory illness
when compared to surgical masks in healthcare workers. Additionally a multivariate analysis (
post hoc ) found that wearing any N95 mask type protected against clinical respiratory
illness
... ... ...
A cluster randomized controlled trial in Australia compared household contacts of paediatric
index cases (0-15 years) with a febrile respiratory illness that were randomised to control,
surgical mask or non-fit-tested P2 respirator intervention groups (9). No differences in rates
of influenza-like infection or rates of respiratory virus isolation were observed in an
intention-to-treat analysis. In a survival analysis that evaluated risk factors for
influenza-like illness, use of P2 respirators or surgical masks grouped together was found to
significantly reduce the risk for illness in those household contacts who reported wearing the
device 'all' or 'most' of the time for the first five days; however, the study was underpowered
to detect a difference in efficacy between P2 and surgical masks.
... ... ...
A study in Berlin, conducted across two influenza seasons (2009/10 and 2010/11), randomised
households to three groups; control, face mask or face mask and hand-hygiene with the analyses
stratified by influenza type (seasonal or pandemic cases), season, and early implementation of
interventions (12). This was the only example of a trail that analyzed specific H1N1 pdm09
secondary household attack rates. In the intention-to-treat multivariable analysis, pooling of
both intervention groups resulted in a significant reduction in lab-confirmed influenza when
stratified for either early intervention or pandemic-only cases; however there was no
statistically significant effect of intervention groups on secondary household attack rates.
When a per-protocol analysis was applied the odds ratios in both the mask-only and
mask/hand-hygiene 24 groups were between 0.2 and 0.3 suggesting a strong protective effect.
Although a statistically significant reduction was found in the mask-only groups.
... ... ...
Larson and colleagues examined hand-sanitiser and hand-sanitiser/mask use (both with
education) effectiveness amongst crowded households in upper Manhattan (15). In this study,
both household caretakers and symptomatic individuals were asked to wear masks. The study found
that mask wearing coupled with hand-sanitiser use significantly reduced secondary transmission
of aggregated upper respiratory infection/ ILI and lab-confirmed influenza outcome compared
with control households (education but no intervention) in the final logistic regression model.
Unfortunately there was not a mask-only group, but the observation that hand sanitizer alone
resulted in no reduction in the aggregated outcome suggests that mask use, in combination with
hand-sanitiser had an impact on transmission. There was also limited power to detect
differences amongst the three groups and there was also observed cross-contamination with use
of hand-sanitizer in the control group
... ... ...
It was observed that there was a statistically significant difference in H1N1 pdm09
infection between individuals wearing masks at any point and those not wearing masks (0%
seropositive individuals when using either surgical masks or N95 respirators in comparison to
14% individuals in the no mask/respirator group). The study however lacked power to detect
significant differences between those wearing N95 respirators against those wearing surgical
masks. In addition to this the study suffered for a large number of other limitations such as
potential measurement and recall bias.
most people who dies form Spanish flue also have lungs full of liquid
BM @ 10
Interesting, I had a Chinese coworker show me some videos of autopsies from China on Covid
patients. The lungs were full of mucus. He translated for me and they were saying that
drinking very hot liquids helps to keep things in check if you are sick. Coffee, tea and the
like.
What we would call anecdotal reports from experts.
One of the serious issues with healthcare today is
the lack of universal availability of it across the nation. In citified areas, the availability
of it mostly meets the demand of the people requiring it and is in close proximity. If you
travel one to two hours outside of the city, the availability of it begins to drop off until a
person in need must travel hours to get to help. The resource in more rural areas begins to
drop off in a precipitous manner. Not to make light of the healthcare situation, if you watch
the move " Doc Hollywood ,"
small community with an aging doctor, a small clinic, staff nurse, a large number of patients,
and a distant hospital. Dr. Ben Stone is on his way to LA in his 356 Cabriole (almost bought
one in the eighties). The resources bypass rural America mostly for monetary reasons.
Here is a list of reasons:
States not expanding Medicaid : While
Medicaid will not pay as much as commercial healthcare insurance or Medicare; without
Medicaid, a hospital may be left with a larger debt. Hospitals located in communities with
high numbers of uninsured residents are more susceptible to closures. According to the
University of North Carolina's
Rural
Health Research Program , the 17 states that did not expand Medicaid under the Affordable
Care Act had the highest number of hospital closures. Texas lost the most hospitals (15),
followed by Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and North Carolina. Over half of the
remaining rural hospitals in Texas and Tennessee and more than a third of hospitals in
Oklahoma and Georgia are at risk of closing due to their weak financial position. These
states are Republican led states and it is solely politics.
Medicaid expansion was associated with improved hospital financial performance and
substantially lower likelihoods of closure in rural markets. The addition of work requirements
by states will negate much of the Medicaid's expansion gain.
High Deductible Commercial Healthcare Plans :
Plans with annual deductibles of $3,000, $5,000 or even $10,000 have become commonplace
since the implementation of the Affordable Care Act as companies and insurers look for ways
to keep monthly premiums to a minimum. In rural areas where high-deductible plans are
prevalent and incomes lower than in urban areas, patients can struggle to pay those
deductibles."Bad debt for rural hospitals has gone up ~50% since the passage of the
Affordable Care Act in 2010."
Patient Transferred to A Larger Hospital : Smaller hospitals and in particular rural
hospitals may lack the needs of a patient. The patient admitted to a smaller hospital are
stabilized and then transferred to a larger hospital which has the resource to care for the
patient. When the insurance finally processes the bill, the first facility ends up with the
deductible portion while the larger hospital has most of its bill paid.
Consolidations: The
National Rural
Health Association , a nonprofit, estimated that 673 rural facilities (with a variety of
ownership structures) were at risk of closure, out of over 2,000. And with the new tax
legislation, and events like the merger of the drugstore chain CVS and the insurer Aetna, the
turmoil looks to get worse. In response, stand-alone nonprofit hospitals have been auctioning
off their real estate to investors, selling themselves to for-profit chains or private-equity
firms, or, like Berger hospital in Ohio have been folding themselves into regional health
systems. Mergers and closing are not only happening in rural areas.
Paladin Healthcare ,
an entity owned by private equity baron Joel Freedman, bought Hahnemann (Center City,
Philadelphia) as part of small hospital portfolio. He made no improvements for 18 months, and
then closed the facility with the intention of selling the real estate, which is set in a
"gateway location" for gentrification.
Political Interests: Back in 2014 the Crominbus Appropriations bill was passed less than
three hours before a midnight deadline that threatened a federal shutdown. It was a
compromise between Repubs and Dems. Inserted within the bill (just before it was passed) was
Section 227 by Representative Jack Kingston of Colorado at the behest of Representative Fred
Upton. It said:
Sec. 227. None of the funds made available by this Act from the Federal Hospital
Insurance Trust Fund or the Federal Supplemental Medical Insurance Trust Fund, or
transferred from other accounts funded by this Act to the "Centers for Medicare and
Medicaid Services–Program Management" account, may be used for payments under
section 1342(b)(1) of Public Law 111-148 (relating to risk corridors).
The
Risk Corridor Program which compensated Insurance Companies in the initial three years
for taking on risky people with pre-existing conditions could not be funded by moving funds
from other programs. Initially, it was passed without a Congressional appropriation and was
blocked by the GAO who had received a letter from Senator Jeff Sessions who asked if the
Administration could appropriate funds for a program. The Administration can not do so;
but, it can move funding around.
You will hear many complaints about narrow insurance corridors. The result of Section 227
was Coops going bankrupt, insurance companies withdrawing, people having to find other plans,
premiums increasing, etc. causing much of the narrowing. Rather than solve the issue,
Republicans as led by Fred Upton of Michigan chose to use this in an effort to dismantle the
ACA. The ACA Risk Corridor Program was to last 3 years and is similar to the Republican created
Risk Corridor Program in Part D which is ongoing.
Staffing: I do not know Steve, a commenter on one of my
Posts . His comment makes sense. We (anesthesiology) are par with everything that our
network accepts. I am not a fan of surprise billing, but I dont think you grasp all of the
issues here. Medicare reimburses at much lower rates than does private insurance in my
specialty. If you work in a place with a high percentage of Medicare (or Medicaid which is
worse) like we do, you cannot come close to earning market salaries.
Medicare reimburses at much lower rates than does private insurance in my specialty. If
you work in a place with a high percentage of Medicare (or Medicaid which is worse) like we
do, you cannot come close to earning market salaries. So we, many years ago, ended up working
95th percentile or worse hours (over 70 per week) while earning in the 15th-20th percentile
in income. We lost a lot of staff. The hospital had to make up the difference so that we
could hire and retain people. We were fortunate that our hospital had the resources to do
that.
Up north of us another hospital faced a similar situation, but they didn't have the
resources to subsidize their staff. So they fired a good team and brought in another. Told
them it was OK to not bill in accordance with what the hospital accepted, like the prior
group did. That let the new group earn enough, for a while, to hire and retain people.
Hospital eventually failed anyway and had to be bought out.
Mayo Clinic in Minnesota closed one smaller hospital and two clinics due to a lack of
personnel and utilization. The result was people having to make a much longer trip to get to
the hospital and staffing goes where the money is in many cases.
Another reason is that we've privatized our medical industry. Many hospitals used to be
owned by counties and municipalities who had established them to provide healthcare for their
citizens. Throughout the 90s and early 2000s, these were systematically privatized often to
cover short-term budget crises. For-profit providers have different priorities in mind and
providing effecting and available treatment is not at the top of the list.
This quote from the doctor sort of encapsulates what is wrong with our s0-called "system"
of healthcare: "If you work in a place with a high percentage of Medicare (or Medicaid which
is worse) like we do, you cannot come close to earning market salaries." Medicine has
devolved into a scheme to extract absolutely the most money possible all the time regardless
of the long-term outcome for society or, it appears, the short term outcome for the patient.
Doctors were supposed to follow "first, do no harm" but nowadays they're forced to play with
the definition of harm.
Yves here. We've written regularly on Eileen Appelbaum and
Rosemary Batt's important investigations into how private equity has taken over more and more
of hospital staffing, including of emergency rooms. This in turn has allowed them to override
patient efforts to have only in-network doctors assigned to their case, as well as to engage in
other practices that greatly inflate patient charges (so-called surprise billing).
The legal fig leaf that allows private equity firms like Blackstone and KKR to play doctor
is that their deals are structured so that MD or group of MDs is the nominal owner of the
specialty practice, even though the business is stripped of its assets and the operating
contracts are widely believed to strip them of any say. The now-notorious incident of
Blackstone's TeamHealth firing whistleblower Dr. Ming Lim confirms who is really in charge.
By Eileen
Appelbaum, the Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and visiting
professor, School of Management, University of Leicester, UK and Rosemary Batt, the Alice Hanson Cook
Professor of Women and Work, Cornell University ILR School. Produced by Economy for All , a project
of the Independent Media Institute
Doctor Ming Lin is the first emergency room doctor to be fired for going public with his
concerns about poor hospital emergency room safety practices and shortages of medical supplies
and protective gear for health workers. He won't be the last.
Like many hospitals in the US, PeaceHealth St. Joseph Medical Center in Bellingham
Washington, where Ming Lin worked for the past 17 years as an emergency room doctor, has
outsourced the management and staffing of its emergency rooms. So, Lin works on-site at the
hospital's emergency room, but he is employed by a physician staffing firm that runs the
emergency room. These staffing firms
are often behind the surprise medical bills for emergency room services that patients
receive after their insurance company has paid the hospital and doctors, but not the excessive
out-of-network charges billed by these outside staffing firms.
About a third of hospital emergency rooms are staffed by doctors on the payrolls of two
physician staffing companies -- TeamHealth and Envision Health -- owned by Wall Street
investment firms. Envision Healthcare employs 69,000 healthcare workers nationwide while
TeamHealth employs 20,000. Private equity firm Blackstone Group owns TeamHealth, Kravis
Kohlberg Roberts (KKR) owns Envision.
Care of the sick is not the mission of these companies; their mission is to make outsized
profits for the private equity firms and its investors. Overcharging patients and insurance
companies for providing urgent and desperately needed emergency medical care is bad enough. But
it is unconscionable to muzzle doctors who speak out to advocate for the health of their
patients and co-workers during the global pandemic that is rapidly spreading across the US.
Yet, that is what Blackstone-owned TeamHealth just did. Why would an experienced emergency
room doctor be fired in the middle of a pandemic? One clue may be that Blackstone's CEO,
Stephen A. Schwarzman, is part of President Trump's inner
circle . He may not want to risk that relationship by allowing TeamHealth's doctors to
inform the public about Washington's mishandling of the allocation of supplies and protective
gear. The President might conclude that TeamHealth doctors didn't appreciate him enough, and
where would that leave Schwartzman?
PeaceHealth St. Joseph Medical Center may have the distinction of being the first hospital
to have a doctor outsourced from a physician staffing firm unceremoniously fired for telling
the public the truth. But it won't be the last. Hospitals are now telling doctors treating
coronavirus patients
they will be fired if they speak to the press.
The American Academy of Emergency Medicine protested Dr. Lin's ouster and
questioned how TeamHealth is allowed to provide hospital services when the law requires
that physician practices must be owned by a licensed medical practitioner. TeamHealth skirts
the law by owning all the assets of the physician practices it acquires -- the real estate,
offices, equipment, supplies, inventory, and even accounts receivable.
On paper, the physician practices are owned by a doctor-led organization that TeamHealth has
set up to comply with the law. But what does it mean to own a physician practice if the
practice has no assets and no possibility to exist on its own?
The furor over patients hit by surprise medical bills revealed that TeamHealth controls the
billing for the doctors it supplies to hospital emergency rooms. The firing of Doctor Ming Lin
pulls back the curtain and reveals that TeamHealth controls the doctors as well.
So anyone who works for TeamHealth or Envision needs to stay home until the virus subsides
Or until PE is out of ER. Right now is the time to be going after them hard. If they come out
the other side of this with no changes to PE control of ER, it will be a missed opportunity
to bring them to heel.
Way back when, an American banker named Paul Erdman tried to start an American bank in
Switzerland, and wound up taken down, tried, and convicted under by a charge in Swiss law
called (IIRC, this whole comment is IIRC basically) untreu Gesellshaftshandlung . He
went on afterwards to write popular novels about what -- meanies -- Swiss bankers are. The
one I read is really pretty good.
Anyway, although it would be really heavy lifting creating an American law against untreu
Gesellshaftshandlung in the face of the modern American concept of business, a law like
that could have excellent effects. It could penalize people who destroy the businesses they
are pretending to manage. Think how wonderful that would be.
In what ethical system is profiteering on the sick and injured who are having a health
emergency morally correct? What kind of people are these Blackstone owners? The kind of
people who rob the dead and wounded on a battlefield, apparently. Ghouls. Morally depraved
scum.
That Peace Health, which is owned by the Catholic Church, has contracted with these
looters, is indicative of how low the Church has fallen in its mission in the world. They
kicked out the nuns from any oversight of the hospital and brought in these Blackstone
demons. Is it any wonder the moral authority of the Church is a thin thread when rather than
supporting their flock they prey upon them? When did the Church start subcontracting to
Satan?
ambrit's suggested reset brought to mind another frame, the role of the tribunes in early
Roman society. I've enthused about them before here, re their ability to block measures
deemed harmful to the people, and the oath sworn to protect them, whereby anyone laying a
hand on them would be hung by the rightfully enraged citizenry.
What we're seeing going on now between the administration and some of the governors is a
loose fit. They are speaking out against the administration's deadly neglect and acting
against it, while, hopefully, having a degree of immunity against reprisal. We'll see about a
hanging, electoral or otherwise.
"What kind of people are these Blackstone owners?"
Steve Schwartzman is on the list of billionaires who supposedly urged Trump to reopen as
soon as possible.
Given Blackstone's medical investments, that is quality talking-your-book.
For the modern era, I would say john Paul II. He largely had free reign to control the
bishop selection process (which for a long time was tied to local governance) and stamped out
any opportunity for good or not heinous bishops to serve as counter examples or exist as
threats to leadership.
Blackstone was a firm that was behind the stealing of houses from American homeowners in
the foreclosure fraud heyday since 2008's financial crisis, I believe. I think they were
owners of document-forging firms.
tonycat,
I didn't think Blackstone had anything to do with document forgery, that was primarily the
realm of LPS, ( lender processing services), who changed their name to Black Knight Services.
Owned by Fidelity National , yes, the title insurance company.
Blackstone bought tens of thousands of foreclosed homes, the ones with irretrievably
corrupted chains of title, formed a subsidiary to do so, and rented them all out.
If you could let me know who you have reason to believe Blackstone owned as far as document
processors , or forgers, pls respond to me thanks-
Before the information is taken down, search for and file save
the board of directors. Save as a file on your hard drive. Guarantee that these same people
will pop up like moles in future disasters and national looting. https://www.blackstone.com/the-firm/our-people
Never (let them) forget.
That Peace Health, which is owned by the Catholic Church, has contracted with these
looters, is indicative of how low the Church has fallen in its mission in the world. They
kicked out the nuns from any oversight of the hospital and brought in these Blackstone
demons."
How does the Catholic church contracting with them still allow their tax exempt status?
Care to comment?
PeaceHealth System Services
1115 SE 164th Avenue
Vancouver, WA 98683
360-729-1000
When did the Church start subcontracting to Satan?
I believe it was around 325 A.D., when they made a deal with the Emperor Constantine. It
may have been earlier, when the tax collector, Saul of Tarsus, said, "Can't get new converts?
Hold my beer."
Where I live our local hospital emergency room is staffed by doctors and nurses that
aren't hospital employees. They are employed by a private group. This has been the case for
at least a decade. There are signs telling people that they will get separate bills from the
doctors. My wife and I both are on traditional medicare and a supplemental policy.
Fortunately this group is part of my supplemental network. Also the hospital sold its
dialyses unit to a private company. They used to do their own laundry now it is done by a
private company. The same is true for the janitor services. The head of the hospital used to
be a doctor. Now the head is an MBA. This hospital is considered a nonprofit hospital. Since
all of these changes has been happening I have noticed that care has become just another
business transaction. Tho corporations own everything , even doctors who are now employees.
If you need to see a doctor immediately you now have to go to one of two walk in clinics.
Health care in my area has become just another money making business. This is a county in
upstate NY with a population of about 100,000 people. There are only 2 corporations providing
all of the care. Both operate with the same business plan. My doctor of 13 years decided to
move out of the area. Instead of the health care organization hiring a replacement his
patients were left out in the cold to find a new doctor. My wife has had 5 primary care
doctors in the last 2 years. Health care has become just another money making business with
no real competition.
There are lots of dimensions to the outsourcing going on in American hospitals. My
experience last summer is instructive. My husband (on Medicare) got sepsis from a carpet
tack, he's diabetic so it was very dangerous and I took him to the ER on instructions from
his podiatrist. The ER hemmed and hawed, tried to confirm with the podiatrist who just
happened to turn off his beeper so the ER called Bill'r regular doctor. His regular doctor
was playing the system like a violin: because he gets bonuses for any cost saving measures he
achieves. This was one – so instead of getting Bill on an emergency IV, his doctor sent
him home with some crappy antibiotics, which he threw up; we lost a good 24 hours which could
have been the diff between life and death. I was furious and I called all the people I knew
on the board of the new hospital to complain. We returned to the ER the next morning and I
was already a cat-5 tornado. They got Bill on an IV and they literally hid from me. After 10
days he was cured but his nitwit doctor (to cover his own ass) recommended some expensive
anerobic antibiotics for another 7 days – by mouth. The gave me a prescription to get
filled. No pharmacy in town had the stuff – it was special order only and took up to 3
days. Long-short when I finally got my hands on the pills, I called the hospital complaint
line and told them how inept they were to let a patient go from the hospital with an
un-fillable prescription – and she told me that that was not hospital policy, that
hospital policy was to send such a patient home with a 3 day supply for the interim. So I
only wish I had had the phone number of the person paying Bill's doctor his bonus for
endangering his recovery in such a callous and insouciant manner. I tried to get through to
Medicare to complain about him but I was blocked every time. It's a shame because that's
first class malpractice in my opinion – and the system that encourages it is
unconscionable. All those cost cuts by the system are death by a thousand cuts for patients
– and an equivalent amount of profits in the pockets of the corporation.
>. . . But what does it mean to own a physician practice if the practice has no assets
and no possibility to exist on its own?
Public sector pension funds are investors in Pirate Equity, in case anyone has forgotten,
so you could ask them or at the Trump's press conference today, ask him. He would know.
Pensioners don't have much, if any, say in how the people who run the pension funds do
what they do. The long look we have had at CalPERS gives some idea of the corruption and
malfeasance that's going on, protecting the "fees" and extractions of the "advisers" who in
turn get their spiffs from the "market."
Not sure what your point is. The structuring of the "deal" obviously seems to be to
maximize all looting possibilities and to shed any possible "legal" avenues of either control
or redress by any of the institutions of governance.
Luring the public sector pension funds into private equity was the historical turning
point. Private equity has now lashed itself to the ship of state, its main goal.
Instead of calling them private equity "firms" and "executives ", we should start
consistently labeling them in the same way The New York Times labels the dictators we don't
like with unflattering terms.
Since they have a long and questionable history in medicine, I nominate the term "private
equity leeches".
A doctor in Boise was fired for wearing her own M95 mask that she needs because of her own
health problems. Listen to the runaround she got! This doctor wasn't afraid to speak out
because she works for herself!
"The list included: if you wear it, everybody will want to wear PPE and we don't have
it,"
In her termination phone call, Buckalew asked to see the policy saying she couldn't wear
a mask.
"I need to have it in writing that you are asking me to leave because I want to protect
myself," Buckalew said.
Still, she said nobody has been able to show her that policy. She was informed though
that she was officially labeled as insubordinate, incompetent, and unethical for her
actions.
I wonder how the hospital would handle mass death? Financially of course seeing as ethics
don't matter.
The most telling sign that we are firmly in the post-truth era is the non-response
statement from Encompass Health:
"We are continuing to tap every resource available to provide personal protective equipment
that meets the needs of our patients and staff [ bla, bla, bla]".
Corporate PR considers not addressing the issue and spewing some unrelated sugar coated BS a
normal operating procedure these days. Before you think that corporations are bad people,
think about bad people inside the corporations. There are thousands of middle class employees
who are writing these kinds of statements on behalf of their paymasters. Humanity has a lot
of rot in it.
Keep every letter, every email, better yet, email them back and ask for clarification
about who authorized, authored, directed the policy. If you phone, record the call. Look up
the board of directors, save the webpage, their names.
This will be useful in the future for potential prosecutions at the judicial and activist
level.
Sorry Billy, it IS good advice, but others have suggested similar, like "when signing the
authorization for treatment, include a statement about in-network only ".
While logical, in every hospital, doctors office, clinic, etc, in my network, you sign all of
these authorizations on a "signature pad" attached to a computer. No addendums or changes can
be made by the patient, and the staff are not authorized to alter it either.
Anything you want as a hard copy, they tell you you can print from the "patient portal"
on the web THEIR version, of course, perhaps not the same as the one you signed.
In the case of any legal actions, their politically connected 18 lawyer team will select
their preferred judge, who will promptly throw out all of your careful documentation
MBAs and automation/IT run amok.
With 8b$ in the bank a 'non-profit" Atrium compensates the top well:
Atrium Health 's top 11 executives made a combined $27.6 million in 2019, the
Charlotte-based health system said on Friday. That's a nearly 15% jump from a combined $24.05
million in 2018. Atrium CEO Gene Woods was at the top of the list with $7.25 million in
compensation in 2019.
Here's a trick they used to get to that Executive pay which was stopped in 2018–
The Department of Justice announced a settlement with Atrium Health, formerly known as
Carolinas HealthCare System, that prohibits Atrium from using "anticompetitive steering
restrictions" in contracts between commercial health insurers and its providers in the
Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan area. The settlement, revealed Thursday, also bans
Atrium from seeking contract terms or acting in such a way as to prohibit, prevent, or
penalize steering by insurers in the future.
SUprise billing is just a pluticrat swindle that will increase by millions when Biden gets
in; Bernie was right and every body knows
it. Consider every advanced country has medicare for all BUT not
here in plutocrat heaven; Bernie was totally right!!!
Other countries have systems different from Medicare for all, especially some of the
European ones. But they are heavily regulated which eliminates all of the efficiencies and
improvements you get with a free market .. I assume that is why we have such an inexpensive
and effective system compared to the heavily regulated ones.
From a Canadian perspective I don't understand why the vast majority of Americans don't
support political candidates which promote universal single payer healthcare.
Maybe healthcare isn't something most people think about until they have the misfortune of
accidents or illnesses.
If there is one positive outcome from the current pandemic, it might be that many more
Americans will be shown how badly broken their health care is, including the per capita death
rate compared to other countries.
However right wing parties are masters of deception, and they are likely working on some
dog whistle issues to change the focus away from health care after the pandemic settles
down.
Because most have been brainwashed since birth and couldn't imagine better governance
exists elsewhere.
From a Singaporean perspective, US is such a crappy place in terms of income versus
overall cost of living + public safety + government efficiency + convenience that it makes me
LOL whenever I hear Americans dissing us as "an authoritarian nanny state". Well, I say they
have the freedom to keep believing whatever that floats their rotten boats.
What is mind boggling is the dysfunction that can be wrought by lawyers.
It seems to me that the fulcrum under private equity's; arrogance,greed,uninhibited vile
existence leading to the takeover of the public medical infrastructure ; rests on peoples
ability to "BS" some excuse to a bunch of lawyers . and have it "cleaned" up into some legal
footing that can be defended. Not because of the merit of the idea . but because of some
standing granted to a "legal framework" of some kind.
The reality completely divorced from the effort to promote the scheme.
On all sides.
Not only the vile, morally repugnant private equity types.
But the people on the other side of the negotiation, who are enticed to make a quick buck ,by
selling out the ship the passengers without a lifeboat, are floating on.
And all of this dealing is made "right" ,by lawyers .
Is it because there is some contagion in law school? that divorces people from "right and
wrong" Or is it partly, sociopaths finding a setting where they fit right in?
Whether it is the prosecutors all over the country, "legally" screwing nominally guilty
people of all kinds of things, making money for their systems by taking it from the general
public
Or the ones who fight to allow every scumbag with a dollar to get non disclosure agreements ,
so they can "pay off" justice and continue to go about damaging society.
Or the ones who allow these medical ownership rule "work-arounds" by saying to private
equity," now , we all know that you are looking to plunder a population but hey . we can just
say "you're helping them on to their final journey" and "it all meets the requirements" . so
sign here how about a round of golf ,down at the club?
Great comment. That is the real cancer we are facing in this society. I note Joe Biden is
a lawyer, I believe he said he was at the top of his class at Syracuse, and Sanders is not a
lawyer. Americans seem to want lawyers as leaders because they know how to make everything
look fine and they can keep a straight face saying it.
"WASHINGTON (AP) _ Sen. Joe Biden claimed during a campaign appearance in New Hampshire
last spring that he finished in the top half of his law school class, although records
indicate he finished near the bottom."
Whatever else is going wrong, at the root we are experiencing a crisis of integrity. Such
a word, "integrity." It requires that we say it like it is. "The state of being whole and
undivided" the dictionary says. It is not, of course, a state that we, being human, can fully
achieve. But it is something that we, as humans, must aspire to achieve. Our huckster society
places no value on the simple virtue of telling the truth. It is a loser's creed, a false
refuge of Pollyannas, we are told by the grizzled veterans of economic warfare. In fact,
though, it is the lubricant that ensures the smooth functioning of all of society. We are
awash in falsehood, victims of Bill Black's "Gresham's Dynamic." We can get back on course by
punishing false representation, starting at the highest levels, where the greatest damage is
done by those entrusted with the greatest responsibility, who should be punished accordingly.
We should do this not out of a sense of retribution against the bad guys (a class which, in
fairness, may include many of us), but as a necessary means of survival.
Former SIGTARP Neil Barofsky was interviewed by Bill Moyers earlier this week. Barofsky
expressed his concern that we have developed a culture of casual lying at every level of our
society:
It is different. They lied then. They lied now. That hasn't changed. But the way those
lies are perceived, and how people have their alternate realities, I think that's very
different, and very scary as we go into this next crisis.
The human race is entering its extinction event, and there is no longer any such thing as
long-term thinking. Personal honor was the first casualty. Many people suddenly feel entitled
to "get theirs" at the expense of everyone else.
That is a symptom of civic decay, not a cause. Once moral relativism is acceptable in
"choices", then it becomes so in civics, then contracts then the entire society. You reap
what others have sowed and you casually accepted.
As far as I can tell the story is:
Once an organisation gets large enough (private or public) then it starts to attract
management accountants (often MBA degree holders). The management accountant believe they can
improve efficiency using the tools that (often) worked in improving efficiency in
manufacturing. Process flow-charts and statistical analysis leading to the use of Key
Performance Indicators (KPI). Sadly the management accountants are often lacking in knowledge
and they are often insecure so they don't dare to ask questions. Their understanding of
statistics is either bad or they simply decide to torture data to get their preferred (or
indeed any as they need an) answer.
The end result is often KPIs which are seldom Key and often not even Indicators of
Performance.
(Their own KPI is billable hours which can and often does affect the quality/usefulness of
their work)
In medicine then it might result in something like providing a doctor with a KPI of number
of patients seen during a day. Seems reasonable, right?
The problem with that KPI is that the patients differ, some visits are short and some take
longer. That might lead to a doctor deciding to call in patients who might as easily have
been helped over the phone. The doctor needs the quick and easy visits to meet the KPI, the
patient might end up with a two hour trip for something that might have been resolved over
the phone but the doctor might have no choice but doing this to meet the KPI.
Or alternatively, if the KPI is about resolving queries over the phone then patients who
needs to come to the office are instead refused to come in and instead treated/diagnosed (or
as it happens, not) over the phone.
The drive for efficiency can lead to more waste and worse outcomes, when it comes to
management accountants then my opinion is: A little knowledge (and that is all they have, a
little) can be a dangerous thing. Their lack of knowledge has caused and is continuing to
cause a lot of waste and a lot of problems for many people.
What struck me about the story is that the hospital(s) are every bit as guilty as the
PE's. Why would they sign these contracts? There must be some sort of kickbacks for them.
Ultimately, it's nothing but a way to squeeze more blood out of the turnips – and that
seems to be exactly the way they think of patients.
Technical question: are hospitals legally responsible for the quality of care and honesty
of billing in their own emergency rooms? Seems to me that question should be settled by a
big, expensive lawsuit by cheated patients.
My guess is that the hospital first tried outsourcing the canteen and the outsourcing of
the canteen might have worked well so they then decided to outsource something else. Why the
ER was chosen for the outsourcing might be related to wanting to be able to blame the
outsourcer for things that might cause bad publicity. Surprise-billing in the ER might cause
bad publicity. By outsourcing the ER the hospital might get more money from the ER and
deflect blame for the surprise-billing to the outsourcer.
And I would not be surprised if another reason for signing those deals might have generated
some personal benefits for the people who signed the agreement on behalf of the hospital.
Probably not a common occurrence but there is a risk that it could happen.
I have worked for an industrial catering firm and properly managed by the contracting
organization contracting out a peripheral function such as as food services can work well.
Contracting out your key business is madness.
I have been operating under the hypothesis that the escape from legal liability was key to
these subcontracting deals.
I am not an insider and have not direct knowledge of such a mechanism, but JTMcPhee may have
some insight, if he thinks about it for a few
There's probably no way a hospital, as a business entity, can avoid being sued In a
malpractice situation. The law on this is murky and fact-driven. Plaintiffs' attorneys sue
all deep pockets where there is a "colorable claim" and assets and insurance behind the
defendant. The hospital corps have deep pockets that fund the best lawyers and expert opinion
providers that money can buy. They can drown many victims in paper and procedure. So your
lawyer can sue the hospital, but will have an uphill battle piercing through to the
imposition of liability on the hospital.
Here's an article discussing the issue of entity liability in malpractice:
Often a case against the hospital turns on whether "vicarious liability" can be
established. As you note, the structure discussed is an effort to maximize the distance
between the hospital entity and the physician. And of course the PE real-party-in-interest
owners of the profitable part of the business are even further removed.
I've got to say, firing Dr. Lin was maybe unwise since it establishes a much closer link
between the PE entity as controlling the physician's practice and thus makes it easier to
establish agency, direct employee and vicarious liability by the PE entity. Though of course
those snakes are very careful to revise their own trench-warfare defenses against personal
liability in constructing their shells and disconnects.
Yves, I don't get it. Why would a hospital not hire these docs in the ER and give up that
revenue stream to a private company? If it's so profitable, why would a hospital just give
that money away? I can see why a small rural hospital or single site facility might not have
the consistent ER volume to justify multiple ER docs, but larger hospital groups can move er
docs around in a geography to cover greater needs.
As a doc the answer is management and cost control. If they have a lot of doctors they get
a hefty discount on malpractice premiums which can be in the hundreds of thousands or they
self insure with umbrella coverage. ER billing is a huge issue. It requires full time people
and a lot of phone calls and follow up and tons of paperwork. Don't forget the insurance
carriers see their job as looking for loopholes to not pay and the doctor groups see their
job as bypassing those loopholes. If it is a large group and someone goes on vacation or is
sick or can't make a shift coverage has to be maintained. A large pool of doctors makes that
possible. A lot of ER doctors chose the specialty because they did not want to be tied down
to an office and a business. They want to do the job and then have time off. For that they
are willing to take a substantial cut in pay. Overhead costs could easily be over 50%. Pay
for doctors has really not kept up with inflation over the last 30 years .unless they cheat
.and the more the payers cut them the more that happens. And consider the risk of seeing
children with fevers brought in to ERs by non English speaking people often without insurance
at 3 in the morning. One case of meningitis, and a certain small percentage will have it, and
you could be wiped out. The lawyers are all over it. Think about the two febrile kids who
died with ICE a few months ago as they were brought over the border by the parents. Combining
these sorts of high risk cases with our legal system is more than a single doc or small group
can handle. For example, I alway saw the problem with the asylum wave to be more the legal
risk of holding these folks than anything else. I think there were hefty settlements in those
cases and I am sure the doctors did not do much wrong .just bad luck .but their careers might
well have been significantly impacted. The only answer is a national health system with
significant tort reform in medicine. Doctors should be on government salary just like
firemen. There is no reason the payment structure should change between the most important
moments of care like 911 and the next part after you go through the swinging doors of the ER.
If health care is a government guaranteed right then it should be free of profiteering and
should be provided by the government and that goes for the pharma and hospital industry as
well. The recent primary suggests that Americans like the health care they have and the way
it is done. It is no accident the health insurance stocks bumped up to 30% the day after
Super Tuesday.
I commend your healthy lifestyle choices that have kept you from an ER visit over the past
10 years or so and from the out-of-network double billing that is now endemic.
Everywhere.
People have developed an exquisitely tuned sensitivity to some swindles, such as when the
oil companies collude to increase gasoline prices, with or without justification. They even
invented a phrase to describe the practice called "price gouging", and demand action from
their elected representatives. Everyone becomes a raging, full-throated socialist when being
squeezed by this particular variety of market leverage. Yet when faced by other, even more
egregious looting, such as described in this post, they fall in line like compliant sheep
being led to the slaughter. I don't get it. Maybe someone can explain this.
I am not going to claim to be able to explain it, but:
I *think* it's the horrible cross-pollination of the complexity issue vs the dire outcome
of the wrong choice.
You can, although most won't, find a way to save gas. It's pretty understandable, your
vehicle gets X MPG and you drive so many miles. You can adjust the second usually, and also
occasionally adjust the first. You have a chance (even if your in negative territory you can
buffer that period with a credit card) to somehow buy time while you make the
adjustments.
How the heck do you figure out if you really need to be cut open (your GP choice), who to
actually cut you open (references?) and where to have him/her do it (if the surgeon works
across hospitals).
Medicine is a massive example of market failure, for the reasons your example outlines. So
all that stuff about "choice" and "markets" is just self-serving BS.
The University Hospital Complex system is the most corrupt part of the economy, and as we
now see it is the weapon being employed. The curtain comes down.
Government essentially guarantees private corporate revenue, so those corporations can
focus on minimizing costs, which are labor. The non-profits sow up the trap with legal
exemptions, generating profit that is not taxed. The three-headed hydra is the least common
denominator of herd behavior, distilling labor.
That money supply chart is essentially an implosion ripe for explosion. You want to
harness that and direct parts of that energy toward some useful function.
Is there a place on the web where these relationships and transactions are published /
researched? State boards of medicine? State Attorney's General? Or is this another opaque
backwater where the details don't see the light of day?
Private equity is like someone standing between you and the milk at the grocery store
where you say "excuse me I need to get a gallon of milk" and he says "Ok, that will be six
dollars" and you say "but it says four dollars right there" he says "well I say six dollars
is the new price take it or leave it".
It's about time we told these a$$hole$ to get the hell out of the way.
A little anecdote from my Army basic training experience that might be a potential
scenario as all this goes "healthSouth:"
Troop barracks used to be these two-story buildings with "Open plan" layout -- ten double
bunks down each side, a latrine (bathroom facilities with a row of unenclosed toilets and
sinks and gang showers.) If you have seen "Full Metal Jacket," you remember the drill. In any
event, forty males on each floor sharing everything including microbes.
My experience was at Ft. Leonard Wood ("Fort Lost-In-The-Woods, in the state of Misery",)
in the fall and early winter of 1966. Meningitis started in the troop population, so the
Commanding General mandated that all the windows were alternately to be kept open 9 inches,
top and bottom, to air the place out. This with outside air temps being in the 20s.
So despite the window-open attempts to limit the spread of this infectious disease in a
pretty bad kind of social propinquity situation, one of the guys in in my barracks, a draftee
farm kid from Iowa, started having really bad headaches and a stiff neck. He was finally
allowed to go to "sick call" at the dispensary, the equivalent of the Emergency Room. He
went, they gave him Tylenol, and sent him back to duty. This was repeated for three days.
On the morning of the fourth day, his squad members found him in convulsions with a raging
fever and he was carted off by a GI ambulance. He died that night in the base hospital, from
meningitis. We troops were then made to remove his gear and bedding which was burned, and
also to "GI" ("deep clean") the whole barracks with some nasty disinfectant from a 55-gallon
drum in GI green.
A week or so later, the guy's father showed up with a shotgun. He'd collected his son's
body Earlier, but someone had told him about his son's failed efforts to get treatment. He
wanted to find the NCOs, officers and the sick bay doctor and staff that were responsible.
The MPs showed up in force and hauled him off to the stockade (jail).
I wonder if there have been episodes like this happening in our current looting-based
system? For sure, they are not likely to be reported very widely.
And the corporate scum have done a pretty good job of insulating themselves from
visibility, let alone responsibility and liability. Kind of unfair to shoot the ER doctor or
the mope in the billing department that was "just following orders."
Thanks. Yep, and the higher ups who allowed that probably got promoted. Whereas commanders
(and now doctors and nurses) who do the right thing to save lives get fired.
Expect COVID-19 case numbers to spike upwards soon along with deaths attributed to it.
Trump rejected re-opening Obamacare and therefore hospitals will rely on Federal CARES
dollars for reimbursement of Covid testing and care. So they will have every incentive to
test everything but a dog or cat that walks through their door to ensure they will get paid
because they will only be assured of being paid by the Feds if it is Covid.
About a third of hospital emergency rooms are staffed by doctors on the payrolls of two
physician staffing companies -- TeamHealth and Envision Health -- owned by Wall Street
investment firms. Envision Healthcare employs 69,000 healthcare workers nationwide while
TeamHealth employs 20,000. Private equity firm Blackstone Group owns TeamHealth, Kravis
Kohlberg Roberts (KKR) owns Envision .
About a third of hospital emergency rooms are staffed by doctors on the payrolls of two
physician staffing companies -- TeamHealth and Envision Health -- owned by Wall Street
investment firms. Envision Healthcare employs 69,000 healthcare workers nationwide while
TeamHealth employs 20,000. Private equity firm Blackstone Group owns TeamHealth, Kravis
Kohlberg Roberts (KKR) owns Envision .
Same Envision as envisionrx -- or is envisionrx owned by something else? https://envisionrx.com/
The whole story here is that for-profit medicine won't work. And in the U.S. of A., ALL
medicine is for-profit, including our beloved (which has always required supplemental
insurance, and now with "Advantage" plans is increasingly crapified) Medicare system.
As a Canadian, I had to stop reading this article when I got to the paragraph about Dr.
Ming Lin working for a staffing company. I. Can't. Even.
The entire US healthcare system is complete and utter insanity! I don't know how anyone can
even try to have a rational discussion about it.
Privatization and for profit craziness is creeping around the edges of Canada's system and
has f'd up our long term care system (certainly in Ontario where I live). It scares the
bejeezus out of me to think that anyone in Canada would want to go down the US road and I
hope I never live to see the day.
The head or our provincial, Conservative, gov is quite to the right (fun fact : he is the
brother of the crazy Toronto drug using mayor, Rob Ford, whose notoriety some of you may
remember from a few years back) his mother-in-law is apparently in long term care, where
Covid is hitting hard here in Canada and Ontario. I am hoping (faint though the hope might
be) that this personal experience wakes him up to the complete and utter wrong that is profit
in healthcare.
I have long been aware that the only way the American Healthcare system could be reformed
was if it totally collapsed, which is happening now.
Lots of unnecessary pain and death.
As many of you know I have in excess of $300K in medical debt accrued in roughly 18
months, the last trip to the Hospital ran $88K and change for a 32 hour stay.
If I had any easily ascertainable assets I'd have been sued multiple times already.
Fortunately every spare penny for the last 5 years has gone to my Daughter Rosetta's 529
plan, between that and a very nice scholarship she will graduate debt free.
And yes, that really is her name.
She's cool with it and we're planning to get matching Mohawks when I'm done with Chemo, I'll
likely go with the same cobalt blue I did when I knew Chemo was on the way.
A man's gotta do
All of that medical debt would be $0 if you lived in Singapore and opted in to pay ~USD300
per year in cash premiums for upgraded govt insurance, assuming you are in the 30-40 age
bracket Even if you didn't opted in and without employer insurance, you most likely won't
fork out more than USD 20K cash copay cash after all is said and done.
Also, you would probably pay only <1% of your total yearly income in income taxes and
not be blowing some USD 2-3K in rent every month.
So frankly I have NO idea how you Americans can tolerate living in that "exceptional"
sh!thole called the US.
In Pagan days human sacrifices were thrown into the fiery pits to appease the Mad Gods
& Big Nature. We may want to revisit that in the present terrible circumstances. High on
the list of nominees would be the Werewolves of Wall Street & all those Hedge Fund
Hooligans.
In Europe, doctors are facing difficult life and death decisions they are not prepared
for.
US doctors are fully prepared to make difficult decisions.
Do you have health insurance?
If not, get lost.
That's what I like to see.
Markets forces at work.
If you can't afford it, you get nothing.
Verity
et al. (March 30, 2020) have estimated the (adjusted) case fatality ratio, infection
fatality ratio, and proportion of infections requiring hospitalization:
First premise: This year, the percentage of influenza patients in relation to the total
population is the same as in previous years.
Second premise: In previous years, seasonal influenza had a percentage of certain
coronaviruses. This year the percentage is similar.
Third premise: The percentage of deaths among people who are infected is no different from
other years.
Fourth premise: The media falsifies the percentage of deaths among those who are infected.
The only serious study concerning the real mortality in the country where according to the
media there are the most deaths (Italy) is the one carried out by the Italian Ministry of
Health. It reveals that it is not 12% but 1.2% of sick patients, which corresponds to the
usual mortality of influenza.
Fifth premise: this study reveals that the average age of the deceased is 80 years.
Additional information: The percentage of deaths by Covid19 in the USA is 17.8 per million
citizens, which corresponds to the usual percentage of seasonal influenza.
Be careful, don't be an accomplice in the panic they want to create: This is essentially a
media attack to disguise the economic meltdown they've created.
Today 4-3-20, Covid is the third cause of death in USA, with around 1.100 deaths per day is
only behind heart disease (1.774/day) and cancer (1.641/day), but in two weeks is expected to
be clearly the leading cause of death in USA as it is now in Italy and Spain. It is a matter
of when start to decrease the number of deaths to see if will be, or not, the leading cause
of deaths in absolute terms (I expected and I think it will not)
French caregivers battling Covid-19 are appallingly underequipped and overloaded with fresh
cases, a local nurse said, explaining a recent action which saw medics posing naked to show
their vulnerability to the deadly contagion. The unorthodox demonstration kicked off earlier
this week, with dozens of nurses undressing in a silent protest against the government
"sending us naked to face this pandemic," as Melina Dufraigne-Laflechelle, one of the
nurses behind the flashmob, put it on RT France.
Using the hashtag #apoilcontrelecovid (naked against the Covid), the silent protest featured
medics of all ages posing with small signs concealing their private parts.
"As you all know, to be able to treat patients with dignity and not take risks for
ourselves and our patients, we need a set of equipment which we don't have," said
Dufraigne-Laflechelle.
Old-fashioned masks are the only protective gear local medical staff have received from the
government, she claimed.
...37% of 6,227 doctors across 30 countries felt the drug was the "most effective therapy"
out of 15 options in treating coronavirus,
according to a poll reported by the
Washington Times .
The drug has been prescribed in 72% of cases in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in
Mexico, 28% in France, and 23% in the USA. Overall, 19% of physicians have prescribed the drug
for high-risk patients, and 8% for low-risk patients.
Overall
(2171)
US (580)
NY (112)
Europe (827)
Italy & Spain
(671)
China (109)
Rest of world
(543)
Hydroxychloroquine or
Chloroquine
37%
23%
25%
37%
62%
44%
55%
Azithromycin or similar
antibiotics
32%
18%
25%
32%
45%
33%
48%
Nothing
32%
51%
42%
29%
16%
4%
18%
Analgesics (e.g.,
Paracetamol/Acetaminophen)
31%
21%
29%
34%
37%
20%
39%
Anti-HIV drugs (e.g.
Lopinavir plus Ritonavir)
16%
5%
6%
15%
28%
42%
25%
Cough medications
13%
13%
15%
12%
8%
22%
11%
Compassionate use of
experimental drugs
13%
10%
8%
12%
20%
35%
14%
(e.g. Remdisivir)
Drugs used to treat flu (e.g.,
Oseltamivir)
12%
4%
11%
9%
10%
39%
19%
Expectorants (e.g.,
Mucinex
10%
10%
9%
8%
8%
28%
10%
Interferon-beta
7%
1%
3%
3%
11%
41%
15%
Antihistamines/Decongestants
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
17%
8%
Plasma from patients who have
recovered from COVID-19
Enough OK. How healthy and strong your respiratory system has a lot to do with fending off
the scourge of viruses. Governments generally do very poor record in tackling Pollution(s).
There is a ' Great ' gift from the US to countries around the world: Please welcome
Petroleum Coke, or ' petcoke '. This is the bottom-of-the-barrel leftover from refining .. tar
sands crude and other heavy oils, is cheaper and burns hotter than coal. But it also contains
.. far more heart- and lung-damaging sulfur."
American companies don't like to use it, and "are sending it around the world. Laboratory tests
on imported petcoke used near New Delhi found it contained 17 times more sulfur than the limit
set for coal, and a staggering 1,380 times more than for diesel."
Big Corporations are literally pooping all over the planet, and virtually pooping inside
our lungs , with impunity; we have to live in such conditions. Can this situation be
stopped and reveresed?
Science has tried to interview George Gao, director-general of the Chinese
Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), for 2 months. Last week he responded.
Q : What mistakes are other countries making?
A: The big mistake in the U.S. and Europe, in my opinion, is that people aren't wearing
masks. This virus is transmitted by droplets and close contact. Droplets play a very important
role -- you've got to wear a mask, because when you speak, there are always droplets coming out
of your mouth. Many people have asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections. If they are wearing
face masks, it can prevent droplets that carry the virus from escaping and infecting others. Q:
People who tested positive in Wuhan but only had mild disease were sent into isolation in large
facilities and were not allowed to have visits from family. Is this something other countries
should consider?
A: Infected people must be isolated. That should happen everywhere. You can only control
COVID-19 if you can remove the source of the infection. This is why we built module hospitals
and transformed stadiums into hospitals.
While the shockingly high prices of prescription drugs continue to dominate the news, the
strategies used by pharmaceutical companies to prevent generic competition are poorly
understood, even by the lawmakers responsible for regulating them. In this groundbreaking
work, Robin Feldman and Evan Frondorf illuminate the inner workings of the pharmaceutical
market and show how drug companies twist health policy to achieve goals contrary to the public
interest. In highly engaging prose, they offer specific examples of how generic competition
has been stifled for years, with costs climbing into the billions and everyday consumers paying
the price. Drug Wars is a
... ... ...
Price increases had occurred across the board, on everything from gallstone treatments to, A
shocking Wall Street Journal piece revealed that between 2010 and 2014, U.S. prices for the
thirty best- selling drugs rose four times faster than prescription volume, and eight times
faster than inflation. 24 Put another way, 80 percent of the growth in profits of
the twenty largest drug companies in 2015 resulted from price increases. 25 Put
still another way, customers of CVS Health spent 12.7 percent more on drugs in 2015 than in the
previous year, and more than 80 percent of that additional spending was the result of price
increases. -- U.S. President Barack Obama even got into the academic mix, publishing a paper in
the Journal of the American Medical Association that, in part, called attention to rising
spending on prescription medication. 22 And in the days before his 2017
inauguration, the next U.S. president, Donald Trump, sharply criticized the pharmaceutical
industry. "We have to . . . create new bidding procedures for the drug industry because they're
getting away with murder. . . . Pharma, pharma has a lot of lobbies and a lot of lobbyists and
a lot of power." --
The brunt of the pain is felt by U.S. citizens - one drug that costs less than $400 a year
in some countries has a list price around $300,000 in the United States. 24 The rest
of the world, however, has not been immune to the plague of skyrocketing prices...
You wrote, " The difference between this virus and most previous viruses is that they
required one to have a fever, i.e., symptoms, before being contagious. This one does not for
at least one to two days before symptoms appear. So we know it's possible to be asymptomatic
for at least one to two days and still be contagious."
Asymptomatic means no symptoms i.e., no sneezing, coughing or postnasal drip.
As far as transmission by sputum (spitting) or other secretions, I think that is a such a
rare occurrence that it is too infinitesimal to statistically count. I mean come on, how many
times have you touched someone's spit? Kissing is not known to spread the disease from an
asymptomatic carrier either.
The other observations that suggest presymptomatic transmission of infection (meaning no
symptoms) cannot be confirmed because it is unknown if the disease was present and active on
surfaces before the subjects came in contact with it and with each other.
The disease is spread by sending a plume into the air as a result of a cough, sneeze or
postnasal drip. A person comes in contact with the virus by being in the vicinity of the
plume or when the virus falls on a surface and a person touches it and then somewhere on
their body that allows entry (eyes, nasal passages or mouth.)
Please provide a reference that says an asymptomatic person is contagious. If you are
referring to the article published in the NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine), that
turned out to be flawed as the women did display symptoms when she returned to Germany.
There is a fear that schools are a vector in spreading COVID-19 from one family to
another. But we know that children, especially young children under 10 are almost alway
asymptotic. Wouldn't this mean that kindergartens and primary schools would be unable to
sustain an epidemic? So is there any point in closing schools?
There is one danger. If an infection is transmitted form one adult to another then it
would be untraceable. If a parent of one child is infected, then all parents of his or her
classmates would need to be quarantined.
P.S. - It looks like
social distancing measures in Finland have pushed R0
to 1 or slightly under.
After that peaks people will start to wake up a little from their quartine fear-induced
stupor and some at least will start to notice what's being done economically, some thing
which effects all plebs equally.
Then we can expect the imminent arrival of peak fiscal fear
#coronahoax aka ccp flu will kill the same groups that are always susceptible
Yes but it seems to kill them in far greater numbers. I thus agree about opening society,
but not completely.
The vulnerable are about 5-10% of the population and generally unproductive (retired or
too sick to work). They can self-quarantine (or, if you are an authoritarian statist, use law
– a gun – to force them to quarantine) – importantly, including from
their non-quarantined family members! , who will spread it to them – and everyone
else go about their business.
In this case, the virus will roll over the population during the first season/year. It
will kill some of the non-vulnerable as well – like all flus/diseases do – but
roughly along annual lines. After that year, society will have achieved "herd immunity".
The problem with a partial quarantine is that the virus continues to circulate, and since
the vulnerable and non-vulnerable people intermix (intimately, at home), the vulnerable will
keep getting infected – this could go on for years. The result: vastly more dead, and a
destroyed economy (which the Rulers will buy up for pennies on the dollar – diseases
can be very profitable!).
That was one of the worst decisions Trump administration made. Now they change their stance. Better later then never...
Notable quotes:
"... Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. ..."
Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don't need to wear
masks unless they are sick and coughing.
Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks
for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short
supply.
Masks don't replace hand washing and social distancing.
There is still confusion between what is a mask & what is a respirator -basically a mask
will protect others from your sputum & a respirator protects yourself from others.
I discovered a site N95 vs
FFP3 & FFP2 masks – what's the difference? which explains the different masks
& respirators and most importantly what the standards are. eg n95 amerika = KN95 China.
As well as explaining the problems of valved devices versus unvalved etc.
It is clear layman style stuff free of dense bullshit, read it if you want to understand this
stuff.
I haven't seen this specifically mentioned so I'll offer it. My local newspaper of all
things, published an editorial today calling for more people in our community to "mask up".
It included this wonderful phrase that captures the true social dynamic and the logic of the
situation:
"I'll wear a mask to protect you, and you wear a mask to protect me."
What's nice about this social compact is that it costs almost nothing, is in plentiful,
makeshift supply (we're including bandanas and scarves - anything), and surely must do more
good than harm, no matter how real or unreal the danger is, nor how prone to mishap or not
the wearing of a mask is.
Such a compact surely must be a social good. If only there had been masks in the US - or
leadership willing to plunge humble and naked into the realities of the situation and learn
from Asia so we could all start making our own masks - then perhaps the US would not have had
to do the most stupid thing possible to its lean productive economy, namely, shutting down
the entire entrepreneur class of the country and throwing their employees into hazard and
poverty.
Given that there was no safety net, and never was going to be despite the talk of the
first few days, it could have saved countless deaths from poverty if the people if the US had
learned the new social rules, including mask and physical distance etiquette immediately, and
kept many of the businesses open instead of driving them to bankruptcy.
So the US is very late to the party, and will pay the price, but now the people who
survive must learn how to live in the new normal. Masking-up in public seems the least
impactful of all responses.
re b's comment : "The HEPA filter catches particles down to 0.3 micrometer. Viruses are
some 125 nanometer in diameter so they are smaller and could slip through. " .
That isn't strictly correct, there is a solid reason for the 0.3 micrometer limit related to
Brownian motion,as I learned after reading a piece from the link I posted above - to wit:
The reason for the focus on 0.3 microns is because it is the "most penetrating particle
size" (MPPS). Particles above this size move in ways we might anticipate, and will get
trapped in a filter with gaps smaller than the particle size. Particles smaller than 0.3
microns exhibit what's called brownian motion – which makes them easier to filter.
Brownian motion refers to a phenomenon whereby the particle's mass is small enough that it
no longer travels unimpeded through the air. Instead it interacts with the molecules in the
air (nitrogen, oxygen, etc), causing it to pinball between them, moving in an erratic
pattern.
According to researchers this point between "normal" motion and brownian motion is the
hardest particle size for filters to capture.
What we can take away from this, is that high filter efficiency at 0.3 micron size will
generally translate to high filter efficiency below this size also.
Immunity can also be obtained naturally rather than by "vaccine".
You can ask your doctor for a strong Vitamin D supplement and probably buy them elswhere. The
simplest is to go out in the same beautiful sunshine as we are now having in Europe.
vitamin D deficiency is common in the winter, and activated vitamin D, a steroid
hormone, has profound effects on human immunity. D acts as an immune system modulator,
preventing excessive expression of inflammatory cytokines and increasing the
'oxidative burst' potential of macrophages. Perhaps most importantly, it dramatically
stimulates the expression of potent anti-microbial peptides, which exist in neutrophils,
monocytes, natural killer cells, and in epithelial cells lining the respiratory tract where
they play a major role in protecting the lung from infection.
For information; one group that suffered from Vitamin D deficiency was Saudi Arabian
women. Their Abbayas (full head covering with no eyes visible, right down to the toes. Maybe
not the correct spelling of abbaya) did not let in the sun. So .....
Even face "masks" were not very efficient at "letting the sun shine in". However, the abbayas
had one advantage; that was women suffered less from trachoma, an illness that is provoked by
rubbing the eyes regularly (irritated because of the sand). The eye flips inward permanently,
leaving only the white of the eye showing. ie. Blindness.
Personally my doctor prescribes a 200'000 UI D dose (drinkable) to be taken twice a year
in November/December and February. Which I naturally took just before the Coronavirus hit
around here.
Surgical masks are pretty good at stopping bacteria and larger droplets, but not aerosols
(small particles). They also have lower quality fit, just like ordinary masks too.
Surgical masks are very good for blocking you own droplet emissions.
Simply use N99 respitator or FFP 3 respirator (EU standard).
Blocks 99 % of small particles, including virus transporting ones. It is used by medical
personnel who handle corona and other viruses.
Use 30 minutes at 70 C in oven with the respirator put in a paper bag over put over
something wooden in the oven. This method can be used for up to 20 times with minimal damage
to the respirator filtration capacity, according to several studies. Another good method is
putting it in commercial steam bag used for sterilisation of baby items for 3 minutes in a
microwave oven, metal presence should not be a problem according to the study because the
metal gets coated by the steam. This method can be used up to 10 times with minimal loss to
the quality of the respirator. It is good for surgical masks too. Also use eye protection and
gloves. These simple methods are good and some hospitals started using them.
Another way is 7 to 10 days keeping the mask in dry bag with acces to air, that
significantly decreases viral load for most viruses. During this time use another
respirator.
For homemade masks these methods should be good too.
Methods that decrease respirator quality are spirt based solutions, bleach based
solutions, and longer exposure to steam. UVGI light and Hydrogen peroxide bath are also are
relatively good methods for disinfection of masks.
Importantly do not touch the respirator's main surface with your fingers, secure a good
fit, and always clean hands before and after handling the respirator.
Combine respirator mask with eye protection, raincoat and gloves. Put the raincoat and any
new item you bring into the home for 3 days quarantine in some special room.
Stay away from people at minimum 7 meters, especially from those who don't have masks.
Use ethanol to clean your gloves before and after you visited a store.
For disinfection purposes ethanol is good, it kills 100 % of viruses and bacteria. Ethanol
is used by russian Covid 19 disinfection teams in Italy for surface disinfection.
Simply use N99 respitator or FFP 3 respirator (EU standard).
Blocks 99 % of small particles, including virus transporting ones. It is used by medical
personnel who handle corona and other viruses.
1. None of such mask are currently available.
2. Even for hospital staff N95 aka FFP2 is sufficient to protect against SARS-CoV-19.
3. It is already very hard to wear and breathe through a N95 mask for a longer time. N99
masks are even worse!
4. The N99 masks have exhalatation valves which let the air from the person who wears it flow
out freely. That defeats the current purpose of #MaskUp which is to protect from unknown
spreaders.
I have trained for chemical warfare in the military. Wearing a tight mask with a filter
(FFP3) system while moving around is physically very tiring after even an hour or so. You
don't select a mask that is more difficult to breathe with than actually required.
"... Infections from asymptomatic cases have an R 0 of 0.1 or 4% of all new infections. ..."
"... More new infections are created during the three pre-symptomatic days the virus carrier runs around then during the symptomatic one. ..."
"... Washing ones hands helps but environmental infections happen only in 10% of all new infections. The pre-symptomatic carriers are, without knowing it, the biggest spreader of the disease. Millions of the many billions of viruses that get created in their throat can attach to tiny water droplets or aerosols while a person breathes, speaks or coughs. ..."
The virus starts to
replicate in significant numbers (billions per mililiter) on day 2 after the infection. The
virus first replicates in the upper throat and the infected person starts to spread it to
others simply by breathing, talking or coughing. Only on day 5 the infected person starts to
develop first symptoms. The virus migrates into the lower lung and replicates there. The
virus load in the upper throat will then start to decline. The immune system intervenes and
defeats the virus but also causes additional lung damage which can kill people who have
already other preexisting conditions .
(Interestingly smokers seem not to develop a cytokine storms during a Covid
infection and are thereby less prone to end up in the ICU.) On day 10 only few viruses will
be found in the upper throat and the person will generally no longer be infectious.
The typical hospitalization point in China was only on day 9 to 12 after the onset of
symptoms. At that point a test by swabs is nearly useless as the infected person will
normally no longer have significant numbers of the virus in the upper throat. Reports of
"defective tests from China" were likely caused by a lack of knowledge about this phenomenon.
The diagnose in these later cases should be done by a CT scan which will show the lung
damage.
We do know
since late January that people can transmit the virus even when they have not yet
developed symptoms. An open question was how many of new infections happen during this
phase.
The new Science study investigated how many infections were created by each of four
infection phases or types:
pre-symptomatic - new infections come from an infected person who has not yet developed
symptoms but will do so later
symptomatic - new infections come from an infected person who has already developed
symptoms
environmental - new infections comes from some environmental contact with the
virus
asymptomatic - new infections come from a person that will never develop any
symptoms.
The study says that R 0 for pre-symptomatic infections is 0.9 or 46% of all new
infections. Infections from a symptomatic persons happen with an R 0 of 0.8 which
is equal to 40% of all new infections. Environmental infections have an R 0 of 0.2
or 10% of all new infections. Infections from asymptomatic cases have an R 0
of 0.1 or 4% of all new infections.
More new infections are created during the three pre-symptomatic days the virus
carrier runs around then during the symptomatic one.
Washing ones hands helps but environmental infections happen only in 10% of all new
infections. The pre-symptomatic carriers are, without knowing it, the biggest spreader of the
disease. Millions of the many billions of viruses that get created in their throat can attach
to tiny water droplets or aerosols while a person breathes, speaks or coughs.
Such spreading can be prevented when everyone wears a mask. A different new study shows
that masks are very effective. Published in Nature the study is titled:
If the carrier of a virus wears a mask the spreading of viruses due to speaking, coughing
or even breathing goes basically down to zero.
But a mask does not only protect the carrier of the viruses. While homemade or even
professional surgical mask do not protect the wearer from all particles they do protect one
much better from them than when one wears no mask at all.
A person rarely gets infected by just one virus particle. They come in millions attached
to tiny droplets. We do not know yet how the dose of the novel coronavirus that infects a
person affects the intensity of the disease. But we do know from other viruses that the dose
matters. People who catch a higher dose of viruses will usually have a more intense disease.
A mask can lower the virus load the wearer may receive.
One can
improvise a mask from simple household objects. One can sew a mask like a surgeon
does in this video .
This is my preferred model which is officially recommended by German fire departments.
(The pdf is in German but the pictures tell the story). This is the mask I made by following
those instructions.
It is made of a folded sheet cut from a triangular arm-sling out of an old first-aid kit.
A HEPA microfilter (as used in a vacuum cleaners) is in between the folded sheet. A piece cut
from a clean bag for vacuum cleaners will do as well. Do not use a sheet or insert that is
too tight to breathe through. If one does that the air will come in from the sides of the
mask and the total protection effect will be less. It can be arduous to breathe through such
a mask. If you have breathing problems leave the insert out. The sheets alone are already
good protection. There is a piece of wire from a big paper clip fixed inside the middle of
the upper seam to fit the mask tightly around the upper nose. The lower part goes under the
chin. I shaved my beard to make it a tighter fit. As I had no sewing equipment I used a
stapler to fix the seams and the ribbons.
The HEPA filter catches
particles down to 0.3 micrometer. Viruses are some 125 nanometer in diameter so they are
smaller and could slip through. But the viruses are attached to some droplet that are bigger.
HEPA filter are essentially labyrinths of small fiber and the viruses would have to bounce
multiple times to get through. Finally the dose also matters.
To clean the mask of potential viruses I put it into the oven for 30 minutes at 70C
(158F).
The science says that masks work. Everyone should use one. #MaskUp!
---
Here some additional links which might be of interest.
So far, to the frustration of both the White House and the intelligence community, the
agencies have been unable to glean more accurate numbers through their collection efforts.
Since none of us is an expert or eminently knowledgeable on
this topic, for the sake of sharing information to develop our views here is data that
suggests otherwise...
Emerging Infectious Diseases journal, Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020
Research Letter : Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases
Abstract. We estimate the distribution of serial intervals for 468 confirmed cases of 2019
novel coronavirus disease reported in China as of February 8, 2020. The mean interval was
3.96 days (95% CI 3.53–4.39 days), SD 4.75 days (95% CI 4.46–5.07 days);
12.6% of case reports indicated presymptomatic transmission .
There was another study suggesting that many infection do not go beyond mild common cold,
with a conjecture that with small initial number of viruses the organism, T-cells in the mouth
and throat etc. learn to eliminate viruses in time to prevent severe lung infection. Thus gives
value to masks that are not 100% effective.
You can will mark my mask for each day of the week and rely on the fact that after paper or
fabric is completely dry ythe virus fdies in 72 hours.
The World Health Organization released a study on how China responded to COVID-19. Currently,
this study is one of the most exhaustive pieces published on how the virus spreads.
The results of their research show that COVID-19 doesn't spread as easily as first
thought.
The majority of viral infections come from prolonged exposures in confined spaces with
other infected individuals. Person-to-person and surface contact is by far the most common
cause. From the WHO report, "When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it
was most often (78-85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other
carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person.
Routes of transmission
COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact
between an infector and infectee. Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it
is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence; however, it
can be envisaged if certain aerosol-generating procedures are conducted in health care
facilities.
Household transmission
In China, human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 virus is largely occurring in
families. The Joint Mission received detailed information from the investigation of clusters
and some household transmission studies, which are ongoing in a number of Provinces. Among
344 clusters involving 1308 cases (out of a total 1836 cases reported) in Guangdong Province
and Sichuan Province, most clusters (78%-85%) have occurred in families. Household
transmission studies are currently underway, but preliminary studies ongoing in Guangdong
estimate the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.
The coefficient from the simulation are selected to match observed infections and they are
not "facts" but useful guidelines. The bottom line is that the infection happen in some
proportion, a large part from asymptomatic people. There was another study suggesting that
many infection do not go beyond mild common cold, with a conjecture that with small initial
number of viruses the organism, T-cells in the mouth and throat etc. learn to eliminate
viruses in time to prevent severe lung infection. Thus gives value to masks that are not 100%
effective.
Surely, the actual infection rate depends on the customs in a particular area. Oriental
people are not in habit of kissing, embracing, clasping hands etc., plus they are quick to
wear masks. Mediterranean people, which may include Iran, embrace, clasp hands and even kiss
(I assume that Muslim would greet only people of the same gender in that way). Masks are not
a habit. Crowded subway, buses etc. involve a lot of very close contacts, which may be OK if
EVERYONE has a decent mask.
I guess I will mark my mask for each day of the week and rely on the fact that after paper
or fabric is completely dry, viruses die (cease to become viable) within hours, so one does
not have to rush the drying process by special heating. On the other hand, one could try to
gently dry in the cloth drier in a bag for female underwear. We do not damage viruses by heat
but by the lack of moisture. Masks seems to be limited.
These are the reuse recommendations I'll be following, from Dr. Peter Tsai, the inventor
of the filtration fabric in the N95 mask:
N95 Re-Use Instructions (Updated as of April 3, 2020) https://www.sages.org/n-95-re-use-instructions/
I intend to follow the advice of rotating masks - once I have masks. It's likely that four
days would be sufficient to dry out any droplets or aerosols and inactivate any virus.
However, longer obviously would be better.
I'm going to order some masks from China today, if I can. Also perhaps some impermeable
food surface plastic gloves to deal with contact infections.
As the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continues to skyrocket, healthcare researchers
around the world are working tirelessly to discover new life-saving medical innovations.
Diagnostics: Quickly and effectively detecting the disease in the first place
Treatments: Alleviating symptoms so people who have disease experience milder symptoms,
and lowering the overall mortality rate
Vaccines: Preventing transmission by making the population immune to COVID-19
Today's graphics provide an in-depth look at who's in the innovation race to defeat the
virus, and they come to us courtesy of Artis
Ventures , a venture capital firm focused on life sciences and tech investments.
Editor's note: R&D is moving fast on COVID-19, and the situation is quite fluid. While
today's post is believed to be an accurate snapshot of all innovations and developments listed
by WHO and FDA as of March 30, 2020, it is possible that more data will become
available.
Knowledge is Power
Testing rates during this pandemic have been a point of contention. Without widespread
testing, it has been tough to accurately track the spread of the virus, as well as pin down
important metrics such as infectiousness and mortality
rates . Inexpensive test kits that offer quick results will be key to curbing the
outbreak.
Here are the companies and institutions developing new tests for COVID-19:
The ultimate aim of companies like Abbott and BioFire Defense is to create a test that can
produce accurate results in as little as a few minutes.
In the Trenches With
Coronavirus
While the majority of people infected with COVID-19 only experience minor symptoms, the
disease can cause severe issues in some cases – even resulting in death. Most of the
forms of treatment being pursued fall into one of two categories:
Treating respiratory symptoms – especially the inflammation that occurs in severe
cases
Antiviral growth – essentially stopping viruses from multiplying inside the human
body
Here are the companies and institutions developing new treatment options for COVID-19:
A wide range of players are in the race to develop treatments related to COVID-19. Pharma
and healthcare companies are in the mix, as well as universities and institutes.
One surprising name on the list is Fujifilm . The Japanese company's stock recently shot up
on the news that Avigan, a decades-old flu drug developed through Fujifilm's healthcare
subsidiary, might be effective at helping coronavirus patients recover. The Japanese
government's stockpile of the drug is
reportedly enough to treat two million people.
Vaccine
The progress that is perhaps being watched the closest by the general public is the
development of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Creating a safe vaccine for a new illness is no easy feat. Thankfully, rapid progress is
being made for a variety of reasons, including China's efforts to sequence the genetic material
of Sars-CoV-2 and to share that information with research groups around the world.
Another factor contributing to the unprecedented speed of development is the fact that
coronaviruses were already on the radar of health science researchers. Both SARS and MERS were
caused by coronaviruses, and even though vaccines were shelved once those outbreaks were
contained, learnings can still be applied to defeating COVID-19.
One of the most promising leads on a COVID-19 vaccine is mRNA-1273. This vaccine, developed
by Moderna Therapeutics , is being developed with extreme urgency, skipping straight into human
trials before it was even tested in animals. If all goes well with the trials currently
underway in Washington State, the company hopes to have an early version of the vaccine ready
by fall 2020. The earliest versions of the vaccine would be made available to at-risk groups
such as healthcare workers.
Further down the pipeline are 15 types of subunit vaccines. This method of vaccination uses
a fragment of a pathogen, typically a surface protein, to trigger an immune response, teaching
the body's immune system how to fight off the disease without actually introducing live
pathogens.
No Clear Finish Line
Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet for solving this pandemic.
A likely scenario is that teams of researchers around the world will come up with solutions
that will incrementally help stop the spread of the virus, mitigate symptoms for those
infected, and help lower the overall death toll. As well, early solutions rushed to market will
need to be refined over the coming months.
We can only hope that the hard lessons learned from fighting COVID-19 will help stop a
future outbreak in its tracks before it becomes a pandemic. For now, those of us on the
sideline can only do our best to flatten
the curve .
A postmortem by a competent pathologist is the only way to confirm cause of death.
Americans must not be led like lemmings over the cliff of disease paranoia chased by an
invisible bug unless there is irrefutable proof that COVID-19 and ONLY COVID-19 was the
principle reason attributed to a person's demise.
Investigative journalists ( b?) must dig into the facts and interview some of the hundreds
of ME's (medical examiners) who performed autopsies on these people and ask these
questions:
1. Did the autopsy reveal the presence of other chronic diseases pulmonary or otherwise,
that could have contributed to the death of the person (e.g., influenza, COPD, emphysema,
tuberculosis, heart disease, cancers, etc.?
2. Was the deceased taking medication that suppressed the immune system such as for
rheumatoid arthritis?
3. Did the autopsy reveal the presence of disease of the respiratory system due to harmful
inhalants (smoking tobacco, vaping)?
4. Did the autopsy show the patient had heart or vascular problems and had surgeries to
correct them such as stent implants, pace maker or other medical devices?
5. Did the deceased receive chemotherapy treatment for cancer related illness?
Unless every answer to the above questions is an affirmative 'No", the public must not
believe that only COVID-19 caused the death of these people. This calls into question the
number of reported COVID-19 deaths has been deliberately inflated to cause panic in America
as well as around the world.
The next question is, for what other purpose are governments doing this?
Can you not see the il-logic in your criteria? Suppose a person has an underlying illness,
that will eventually prove fatal. If I shoot that person in the head are we going to say that
the cause of death was the underlying illness, or are we going to say it was the bullet to
the head?
Many people live with underlying illnesses for years. The criteria that should be used is:
why did that person die right now? If what killed them right now is a viral infection, then
the fact that the underlying illness would have killed them eventually is meaningless, the
cause of death is the viral infection.
I think that some people are adamant that they will not believe there is a deadly virus in
our midst. Nothing said to them is going to make them believe this, they will keep changing
their reasons for the denial. This is somewhat understandable to a point. Yes our government
lies about everything, and yes they take every opportunity to enrich themselves and increase
their power. My initial reaction was dismissive, I too thought it was a case of overblown
hype, but as the days and weeks passed, and the facts changed, so did my opinion.
The overwhelming evidence is pointing to a serious, deadly virus in our midst, and it is
time people start acting appropriately. Even the people who understandably ignored the boy
who cried wolf, eventually came to the realization that there was indeed a wolf in their
midst.
1. does it stop you from catching the bug 100%? No, including N95, P100, whatever. there's
leakage and also many other infection vectors.
2. do most people know how to don, adjust and handle used masks properly? No
3. does it help? yes, every little bit is better than nothing
4. dirty little secret - for most of Asia with exception of probably Japan, people wear
mask not because they are trying to protect others if they are asymptomatic carriers. They do
it out of good old self preservation. it DOES, however, have the useful side effect that the
end result is the same - asymptomatic carriers are also covered.
Did Johns Hopkins issue the following guidelines (I don't think they did)?
1. The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a
protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or
buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and
multiplier cells.
2. Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but
decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of
material where it lies.
3. The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of
fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT
(that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By
dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
4. HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for
washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes
it even more useful.
5. Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external
lipid layer of the virus.
6. Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it
down from the inside.
7. Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide
dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
8. NO BACTERICIDE SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; they cannot
kill what is not alive with anthobiotics, but quickly disintegrate its structure with
everything said.
9. NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous
surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours
(copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, because it removes all the moisture
and does not let it peel off and disintegrates). ), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal)
and 72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules
float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
10. The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air
conditioners in houses and cars. They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially
darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it
faster.
11. UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example,
to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is
protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.
12. The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
13. Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
14. NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need
65%.
15. LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.
16. The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The
more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
17. This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa,
food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc.
And when using the bathroom.
18. You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can
hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.
19. Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.
IMHO only 20% of the note shows some imprecise or wrongly interpreted examples (like f i
Listerine) , but when 80% looks correct, we ABSOLUTELY need to find the source and
disseminate it in order to help people understand and , why not, start thinking on why and
how apply the recommendations AFTER having understood the logic behind the detailed and
practical recommendations which do make sense but which we need to justify and assess before
we carry them further as full "truth"
On March 14, French health minister Olivier Véran made a blunt statement on Twitter
– warning that people should stay away from using ibuprofen to treat coronavirus
symptoms. Some patients in France had experienced adverse affects using non-steroidal
anti-inflammatory drugs to treat the disease. The tweet has sparked rampant disinformation on
WhatsApp and social media, but there is currently no strong evidence that ibuprofen can make
coronavirus worse. Even so, the NHS is still advising that – until we have further
evidence – people should avoid using ibuprofen to treat coronavirus symptoms and take
paracetamol instead. If you can't take paracetamol, or are taking ibuprofen on the advice of a
doctor, make sure you check with a doctor before you make any changes to your medication.
Updated 04.03.20, 11:05 GMT: The article has been updated to clarify that some alcohol
gels are effective against norovirus.
Matt Reynolds is WIRED's science editor. He tweets from
We need to look into why the most active countries that do not practice self isolation,
while wearing face masks, have very lowest death rates compared to case numbers. I.e.,
Singapore, South Korea, Russia, Japan, etc...
There is difference among people born and raised in different countries with different
vaccinations given at birth and afterwards. There is also difference of many local diseases
very common; like malaria and others in Asian courtiers, which are almost non-existent here
in USA. It gives us some directions to fight Covid-19 employing mass spectrometry and many
other tools.
I am over 70 and last year in the UK I had a vaccine for pneumonia, which I understand is
of one of the stages in the desease's cycle. Might it be possible that a pneumonia vaccine
would provide some kind of immunity for Covid-19?
The vaccine for pneumonia may have a limited scope compared to Covid-19 attack on immune
system, but studies of the blood samples looking for anti-bodies after vaccine for pneumonia
may provide us further insight. The best practice would be to try staying away from Covid-19
exposure and try to boost our immune system.
I would like to share some information I happen to find coming out from Chinese Social
Media South China Morning Post: "People with blood type A may be more vulnerable to
coronavirus, China study finds".
A claim from scientists from Chinese study at Zhognan University Hospital in Wuhan and
Shenzhen city. They screen 2000 medical record of patients infected with the SARS CAVID19 to
find a higher proportion of patients belonging to the Blood group A, as well as greater
proportion of them suffering from more severe disease. As we know most scientific papers from
China are written in Chinese language and their scientific perspective may not be as ours, we
cannot confirm that is a reflecting a true fact. Nevertheless, it wouldn't be so difficult
nor expensive to have a look into the matter. If it turns out to reflect a confirmed fact, it
will change our perception about the susceptibility to this germ. We already know that there
is a very wide spectrum of severity of symptoms in our population and in part that might be
due to factors as those mentioned above. My only recommendation is please take it easy we do
not want another problem as we did with toilet paper or Chloroquine.
Be safe, keep yourself at home.
Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol. Tito's Handmade Vodka is
40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC. Please see attached for more
information.
pic.twitter.com/plYf54HPLn
You can certainly bet on that the virus can spread in hot seasons. In these days, in
Argentina, we have temperatures about 35 Celsius (almost 100 Fahrenheit), and the virus still
gained momentum in such environments. The strict social isolation has been proven to be our
best option so far. In economics terms, and even in social mood, it seems to be a very high
price to pay. But relaxing or terminating this forced quarantine may led us to the worst case
scenario.
Here in Brazil we have high temperatures right now. And the daily contagion rate is much
lower than in countries or places where the climate is much colder. I believe that the virus
will not spread as well in hot climates.
I'm currently in mid-Florida there it has been in the upper 80's to mid 90's every day for
the last several weeks. The infection is increasing here as far as in Michigan. Also, it's
hotter down towards Miami and the infection levels are even higher down there. I wouldn't put
any faith and hot days killing it
"those countries are poor and have no testing" - but what about their death rate then? As
of right now, the ENTIRE CONTINENT of Africa has just a few dozen deaths TOTAL..
Extreme heat/cold are known to be formidable environments to most viruses. Odds are that
this one is too, but only time will tell I guess.
Australia is not poor and absolutely does have testing!!! We have over 3000 infected (that
has been identified) and 13 deaths. Do not count on weather conditions offering some form of
protection.
Temperature isn't the only parameter, air-conditioning and the related irritation of
mucous membranes are favouring coughs and sneezing and by consequence the spread of
viruses.
Here, b. The Swiss Propaganda Research did the work for you and brought us via its Dutch
sister website the official mortality numbers of Holland over the past years up until
18/3/20.
It's a huge pity that I can't paste a picture here, because this graph really says it all.
It's a graph of numbers recorded by the same official source that simply collects the
weekly death rates in Holland. Numbers that up until now were totally apolitical and neutral.
Nobody cared.
Two years ago, due to a heavy flu season, a whopping 9,444 excess deaths were counted. The
present corona mortality is nowhere near such numbers and will probably never get there.
But two years ago there was no panic, no lockdown, no nothing. Just an unfortunate heavy flu
season.
Not a good enough reason to question anything? No need to get this truth out? No need for
rationality and a woke population? No need for whatever MoA is meant to be?
As from today the daily "Covid-19" death toll will include data from the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) regarding deaths that occur external to hospital. Basically,
anyone who dies and is not being treated in a hospital at the time, but nevertheless has
"Covid-19" registered on the associated death certificate, will be counted in the official
toll. Those of us who are not prone to become unhinged at the slightest nudging towards it
by Government psychological manipulation will have the sense to realise that this
development will not be wholly unrelated to the arrival of the Coronavirus Bill, and how it
has created an environment where there is potential for a good deal of abuse in order to
create the impression of copious amounts of death by "Covid-19"
...
The reason why excess death is a crucial way of getting a handle on the issue should
be well understood by a FBEL reader, but to explain briefly: it has been the tendency by
the medical establishment to attribute death by other causes to so-called Covid-19 (and
now, if the reader examines the corporate-media reportage carefully, coronavirus)†.
As such, we should expect to see no great deal of excess death (or more death than usual),
but instead numbers under one column on a ledger shifted across to another headed
"Covid-19".
...
Even so, when the Chief Executive says that [nine] thousand people are hospitalised, it
might sound scary to the psychologically damaged masses that would be intensely following
the "war reports" of the sort that Stevens was holding. However, one should consider how
there are 100,000 "general and acute" beds in NHS England, and how, in the year 2018-19,
the institution saw 626,000 admissions for "influenza, pneumonia". The source for this data
is the House of Commons briefing paper, Number 7281, 20 February 2020, "NHS Key Statistics:
England, February 2020", which is online for anyone who isn't deranged to find.
If somebody dies of pneumonia and lung biopsy turns up coronavirus then it likely
coronavirus caused the death. It would be interesting though to see how officialdom does
actually determine if a death outside hospital is determined but I take it that would be done
by autopsy. Something the writer at your link didn't look into or mention.
The early days of the outbreak have been reminiscent of SARS and MERS, and indeed, the
discovery that the causative agent was a closely-related, never-before-described coronavirus
predicted potential for nosocomial transmission and so-called "super-spreader" events (
8 ). Unfortunately, 2019-nCoV did
indeed infect health workers in China via nosocomial transmission. Here we offer a first
description of the 1,716 confirmed cases among health workers.
Overall, they also display a likely mixed outbreak pattern -- perhaps the data are
characterized by a point source curve beginning in late December 2019, which was eclipsed by a
higher magnitude continuous source curve beginning on January 20, 2020. To date, there is no
evidence of a super-spreader event occurring in any of the Chinese health facilities serving
COVID-19 patients. However, we do not know whether this is due to the nature of the virus
itself or whether these events have been successfully prevented.
You misunderstood something about Chinese measures to fight this virus.
We did not just simply lock down cities and everybody stay home to wait for the good
ending.
It's far from enough.
We check check and check.
Find out those infected, took them into hospitals. Find them as much as we can. DO NOT leave
them goof around/stay home to infect the whole family.
Find out those who are close to the infected, took them into isolation to observe if they
will catch the virus. Find them as much as we can.
Track those who were close to the infected, check out the asymptomatic one who is out of the
radar and secretly give the virus to the infected. Isolate this asymptomatic person who may
continue to spread the virus to others. Yes, you need to find out who infected whom, and how.
You need to build the detective teams on infection. You find them out, learn from it, publish
it, avoid it.
It's a mission impossible, but still, you do it, with enough endeavor, it's mission
possible.
check, check, check track, track, track isolate, isolate, isolate
In the same time, you do all you capacity to guarantee the medic, the logistic, the supply,
it's a whole system. Not simply lock down, not just stay at home.
China has more than 70% family cases because social cases are effectively avoided by lock
down and stay at home, while those family cases at early stage in Wuhan especially can not be
avoided since we don't have this system at the time. Things happened in Wuhan too fast!
You need to react fast! You need to do lot of things at the same time. You need to find them,
all of them, really fast. Take them into hospital, into isolation, into observation, under
your radar.
Lock down and stay at home works! But that's not all about it. That's just a start of
it.
There are cases that people go out for grocery, without masks, get infected by another buyer,
within seconds!
If you guys don't wear mask, don't follow stay at home and social distance strictly,
whatever your government doing is in waste.
But if your government don't respond fast and find out all of them for treatment and
isolations, still the same: this virus thing will just goes on and on and on and on and
on
At the end of the day, you may reach herd immunity (if this virus is that friendly: once
cured, never infected again, we are not sure about that since somebody already has two
strains of this virus in the body at the same time, which suggest something quite
different)
In that case, there will be herd immunity gap between you strong survival guys who passed the
virus test and we the untested weaker ones who avoided the test by all means.
Who knows, you might win by lost the burden of the old the sick the weak the poor the
idiot.
We may also win by guard our value and our people as an unity.
Win-Win
As for fundamental changes of life style and governing method. We didn't think much about
it before as we sincerely believed this would be a short term thing. We believed in ourselves
and expected everything back to normal in Apr. until you guys join this virus thing.
Now everything changed. Things become really complicated.
Furthermore, I tried to communicate the importance of recycling FFP2 masks, without any
success. It is a matter of life and death. These masks are considered for single use and staffs
throw them away too quickly. This is not the place to be technical, but I have proposed four
methods to recycle them and they must be implemented according to the sterilization equipment
available in hospitals, information that I have still not been able to obtain. We must educate
medical staff on how to extend the life of these masks and recycle them, today, the urgency is
immense.
The army, firefighters and probably the police have gas masks, which should not be left in
the barracks, they are even more effective than the FFP2. We do not care if it looks crazy to
see doctors with gas masks, I prefer to see them stay alive and able to care for patients, and
also it would prevent them from becoming vectors of spread themselves. How many gas masks,
which are cleanable and reusable, are available?
FFP2 masks for the population, a simple solution for returning to work.
To finish with the masks, let us understand that what will get us out of confinement,
lockdown, and will allow the population to resume almost normal work, is the massive production
of FFP2 masks for the entire population, small (children) and adults (adults). The faster the
necessary production tools are put in place, the faster Belgium can get back to work, it's
really that simple.
During the minimum 4 weeks of lockdown, massive screening is needed, and the establishment
of the task force is a step in the right direction. We cannot lift the lockdown until our
ability to track down infected individuals has been greatly increased.
At Vo'Euganeo in Italy, all the confined residents (3,300) were tested a month ago. Result:
out of 89 positive cases, there are only handful contaminations, reports La Voix du Nord. The
approach I propose works when you can combine lockdown and massive screening.
It was true yesterday, it is true today, it is enough to see how Taiwan, Hong Kong, and
Singapore handled the crisis from the start, and how China and South Korea recovered.
CountLess life could have been saved if white people just didn't have an illogical
aversion to masks.
Everyone wear masks in asia. Ironically, It is not the Chinese who is spreading it In
Asia. The people who are spreading the disease where I live are the white people returning
from overseas and refuse to wear masks. They should go back to wherever they come from.
these people should be physically assaulted for NOT wearing a mask in Asia like Asians are
assaulted in the West for wearing one.
"... Ming Lin, an emergency room physician in Washington state, lost his job last week after he spoke to a local media outlet about the lack of protective gear for staff at Puget Sound area hospitals. ..."
US Health care systems have warned emergency room doctors and nurses that if they speak out about working conditions inside a
hospital, they will be fired, reported
Bloomberg .
Ming Lin, an emergency room physician in Washington state, lost his job last week after he spoke to a local media outlet about
the lack of protective gear for staff at Puget Sound area hospitals.
Hospital staff at the NYU Langone Health system were recently warned that if they spoke to the media without authorization, they
would be terminated.
"Hospitals are muzzling nurses and other health-care workers in an attempt to preserve their image," said Ruth Schubert, a spokeswoman
for the Washington State Nurses Association. "It is outrageous."
Doctors and nurses "must have the ability to tell the public what is really going on inside the facilities where they are caring
for Covid-19 patients," Schubert said.
As we noted in January, a hospital doctor in Wuhan, China, the epicenter of COVID-19,
tried to inform the world about a fast-spreading disease. However, he was quickly silenced by the Chinese government, and since,
more than 800,000 people around the globe have been infected, with 39,000 deaths.
One reason that nurses and doctors must be informative about evolving conditions inside hospitals is that public donations of
medical equipment or gear could help out a local facility.
"It is good and appropriate for health-care workers to be able to express their own fears and concerns, especially when expressing
that might get them better protection," said Glenn Cohen, faculty director of Harvard Law School's bioethics center. Hospitals
are likely trying to limit reputational damage because "when health-care workers say they are not being protected, the public
gets very upset at the hospital system."
NYU Langone Health employees received notification last week that if they spoke with media, they would be "subject to disciplinary
action, including termination."
New York's Montefiore Health System requires doctors and nurses to get permission from superiors before speaking to the media.
"Associates are not authorized to interact with reporters or speak on behalf of the institution in any capacity, without pre-approval,"
according to the policy, which was seen by Bloomberg News.
Lauri Mazurkiewicz, a Chicago nurse at Northwestern Memorial Hospital, was fired after she told the hospital staff to wear more
protective equipment:
"A lot of hospitals are lying to their workers and saying that simple masks are sufficient and nurses are getting sick and
they are dying," Mazurkiewicz said.
Doctors and nurses have also tweeted their frustrations with hospital systems – this has also led to some systems tightening the
noose on what employees can and cannot say on social media:
My babies are too young to read this now. And they'd barely recognize me in my gear. But if they lose me to COVID I want them
to know Mommy tried really hard to do her job.
#GetMePPE #NYC pic.twitter.com/OMew5G7mjK
Nisha Mehta, a radiologist from Charlotte, North Carolina, runs several Facebook groups for physicians. She says members in her
groups have reached out to her and want their stories told about working conditions:
"I'm hearing widespread stories from physicians across the country and they are all saying: 'We have these stories that we
think are important to get out, but we are being told by our hospital systems that we are not allowed to speak to the press, and
if we do so there will be extreme consequences," Mehta said.
America's hospital system could be cracking , like what happened in China and Italy. If everything were fine, doctors and nurses
wouldn't be flooding media outlets and social media platforms, warning the public about hospital conditions and or about how deadly
the virus is.
In this sense, COVID-19 behaves a lot like seasonal flu. Common rooms often mean common
pathogens and higher dose of virus then from strangers. There are some indications that the
doze of virus that you get affects the severity of the disease.
Families are great places for socialization and provide a means to stay active and engaged,
but can serve as pathogenic petri dishes
Based on current research, it takes about 2 weeks between the onset of symptoms to the
clinical recovery of patients with a mild form of the disease
Austria says anyone shopping will
have to wear face masks, bringing it in line with the neighbouring Czech Republic which, on March
18, ordered face masks be worn in public.
Masks will be supplied to supermarket retail chains
which will distribute them to shoppers as they enter stores.
The government cautioned that the masks do not protect wearers but are meant to prevent them
from spreading infectious cough droplets.
So there are a lot of wacky theories out there. Here's mine and warning: I'm pissed at what
I'm witnessing.
1. The way health industry workers including maintenance support personnel are carrying
the load on the front lines of this pandemic is UNSUSTAINABLE and inhumane both for staff and
patients. This story must be EXPOSED in every global hot spot.
2. This pandemic is a WAR, so let's attack it and behave like we are in the midst of a
World War.
3. All gloved hands must be on deck for this. Healthcare workers should not be burdened
and risking everything in the manner that we are starting to become aware of now in the West.
Why should they be subjected to such stress and burden and all the risk while millions of
ABLE-BODIED PEOPLE languish at home collecting a check for doing nothing. Where is the
government on balancing this chaotic, unjust situation?
4. There are many, many service jobs associated with healthcare and needs brought out by
this pandemic that don't involve close contact. The need is great.
5. Governments think the military can help in this crisis? Use it! Better to use them for
healing than killing.
6. Need more help? Then recruit college and university students without underlying health
conditions between the ages of 17 to 35. Hell, recruit from all healthy, able people under 50
collecting UI.
7. No one should be languishing at home collecting free money while everyone working in
the healthcare service industry, and senior residences suffer 24/7 with crazy shifts getting
sick!
I know what I'm bitching about. Both my parents were afflicted with cancer a few years
apart. I practically lived my life in the hospital and witnessed need wherever I turned in
normal times and helped in whatever way I could through the entire ordeal. There is an aging
population crisis happening around us and everyone's acting like this is la-la land and who
cares!
8. This pandemic is emphasizing deficiencies everywhere in the system, especially moral
deficiencies.
9. This pandemic is war, and many are needed on deck to end it! If able bodies want a free
ride, to collect a check and languish while others suffer...damn it...draft them or cut off
the funds!
10. It's time to go above and beyond the clapping, already! Everyone should be
shouldering the need wherever they can.
It's time to organize and share in the work and responsibility involved.
Money quote " There is this sense that experts are untrustworthy, and have agendas that
aren't aligned with the people"
That was always true about neoliberal economists. So it might well be true about mecuacl
bureaucrats like Fauci. Did he disclose his stock holdingd and financial interests? Is he a part
of neoliberal "medical-industrial complex" which wants to rake profits at the expense of people
health?
His email to Hillary suggest that he is medical professional but a politician.
Actually any top medical honcho in Washing is compromised as they did nothing to stop
"balance billing" fraud and too over of ambulance business by private equity sharks.
Notable quotes:
"... There is this sense that experts are untrustworthy, and have agendas that aren't aligned with the people ..."
"... In the email, Dr. Fauci praised Mrs. Clinton for her stamina during the 2013 Benghazi hearings. The American Thinker falsely claimed that the email was evidence that he was part of a secret group who opposed Mr. Trump. ..."
Adding that Dr. Fauci is bearing the brunt of the attacks, Mr. Bergstrom said: " There
is this sense that experts are untrustworthy, and have agendas that aren't aligned with the
people . It's very concerning because the experts in this are being discounted out of
hand."
... ... ...
Anti-Fauci posts spiked, according to Zignal Labs. Much of the increase was prompted by a
March 21 article in The American Thinker, a conservative blog, which published the
seven-year-old email that Dr. Fauci had written to an aide of Mrs. Clinton.
In the email, Dr. Fauci praised Mrs. Clinton for her stamina during the 2013 Benghazi
hearings. The American Thinker falsely claimed that the email was evidence that he was part of
a secret group who opposed Mr. Trump.
... ... ...
In an interview, Mr. Fitton said, "Dr. Fauci is doing a great job." He added that Dr. Fauci
"wrote very political statements to Hillary Clinton that were odd for an appointee of his
nature to send."
...One anti-Fauci tweet last Sunday read: "Dr. Fauci is in love w/ crooked @HillaryClinton.
More reasons not to trust him."
Yesterday I ventured into Wal-Mart to shop with the other local deplorable people that the elite child molesters, sexual perverts,
and sociopaths out in Hollyweird, NYC and Washington like to look down on.
Wasn't that crowded and I probably noticed about 10 customers "suited and booted" wearing various masks of different shapes
and styles and latex gloves.
Speaking of "suited and booted", shouldn't these people be wearing one of those full body suits and booties over their
shoes as well?
Extensive details from medical professionals, on just what an exaggerated scam this
coronavirus Covid-19 panic is
In reality, what we have is a somewhat worse flu season 99% affecting the elderly and
chronically ill, e.g., a young person dying turned out to have hidden leukemia
Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the
coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses
that these are deaths WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus. In other words,
these persons died while also testing positive [not nececessarily causal]
Between those who died *from* the coronavirus and those who died *with* the coronavirus,
it is not clear whether the person died from the pre-existing chronic diseases
Renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is
below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only
arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the
number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.
Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is
between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu
A Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive cruise passengers, and despite
high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48%
remained symptom-free, while among 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that
developed no symptoms at all.
The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more
pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned
Covid19 as a causal factor.
Average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10%
of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.
80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased
had suffered from three or more chronic diseases.
Less than 1% of deceased were healthy persons
Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe,
which had already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the
past
Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units
already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018.
Argentinean virologist and biochemist Pablo Goldschmidt explains that Covid19 is no more
dangerous than a bad cold or the flu.
Dr. Goldschmidt speaks of a „global terror" created by the media and politics.
Every year, he says, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die
of pneumonia.
German Professor Karin Moelling, former Chair of Medical Virology at the University of
Zurich, stated in an interview that Covid19 is „no killer virus" and that
„panic must end".
Countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have
experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19
Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age
of more than 80 years and a maximum age of 97 years
According to all current data, for the healthy general population of school and working
age, a mild to moderate course of Covid-19 can be expected.
Official data on deaths from pneumonia in the US. There are usually between 3000 and
5500 deaths per week and thus significantly more than the current figures for Covid19
To clarify: chloroquine and like agents are antimalarials which also have immunosuppressive
properties. They are used in COVID19 to dampen the acute respiratory distress syndrome
[ARDS], the pathologic exaggerated immune response which is the cause of most COVID19
fatalities.
It is not without significant side effects (eg retinopathy).
Nevertheless, any suspicions about big pharma's motives in this context are warranted.
It has been suggested that a profitable class of antihypertensives (ACE inhibitors) is linked
with worse COVID19 outcomes.
Hydroxyxhloroquine is antimalarial,works on the DNA , and accumulates in white blood cells .
Corona virus is RNA. Possible other mechanism includes suppression of T lymphocytes ,
decreased white blood cell migration to the injured area ,stabilization of lysosomal enzymes
which means the enzymes that can attack pathogen and also human normal cells are being
prevented from release from inside the immune cells and suppression of DNA and RNA synthesis.
I am not aware that has ever been to be effective against any virus in the past. It
doesn't work on the Angiotensin receptor or signal transduction down stream .
Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquione are used for Rheumatoid arthritis but they don't alter
the bone damages They are not very effective DMARDs ( disease modifying anti rheumatic drugs
) .It is also used against Graft versus Host rejection . Not effective enough.
Any antiviral medicine has to work on one of these sites or on combination of these
sites- attachment of virus to cells, f penetration ( nucleus) , uncoating, protien synthesis
, nucleic acid synthesis, packaging , and assembly of new virus , then the last part -viral
release from cell to attack new cells. Hydroxychloroquine is not known to attack any of these
processes .
Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine are known to work differently in rheumatoid and graft
vs host disease or in some patients with SLE.
I am not sure if these 2 can be considered as an orphan drug and approved by FDA
I am not sure how French jumped to the idea that this medication would work ( usually a
possible mechanism of action or anecdotal data have to be furnished before trying or have two
have animal data )
So let's not celebrate French microbiologist or IHU and jump to some theories on the
behaviors of French ministers or pharmaceuticals.
Since March 17th the pin on my twitter profile promotes the preventive use of chloroquine to
treat the Novel Coronovirus. I've been following the debate about this anti-malarial (polio
and yellow fever) drug closely. I like Escobar's article, but there are several problems with
it, that even I, as a proponent of chloroquine cannot ignore.
First, the claim that Agnes Buzyn (mispelled twice in the article as "Buzy"), classified
the drug as a poison, thus requiring prescription.
this is false. Chloroquine, in its market French form known as Nivaquine, was never over
the counter. Never. In fact very few Western countries ever sold it over the counter. In most
US states, it was prescription based. It is lethal when used inappropriately.
Second, with all due respect to Dr. Raoult, he is absolutely wrong about viral load in
terminal stages of Covid-19. Corona virus is anything but low or nearly absent. In fact, its
viral load is extremely high and a good measure of patient outcome at admission, and no
amount of antiviral treatment can reduce it on its own at this point. Raoult was either
trying to say that corona is not the cause of mortality, which is technically true, or like
99% of doctors fighting Corona, has no grasp of what the virus actually does.
The gist of the Escobar article is problematic. Nothing concrete about how Sanofi or Big
Pharma is planning on cashing in by delaying chloroquine production. Last week Sanofi donated
300,000 "dosses" of chloroquine to the United States. The drug has been around for 60 years
and is listed by the WHO as a required drug in all medical systems with required
possibilities of local production. The criteria of which are known only to experts.
As for the theory that chloroquine supplies have been pilfered my French sources told me
supplies had been seized. Macron may be pursuing a policy of herd immunity, but
doesn't have the political luxury of being public about it, and a little less literalism is a
helpful corrective for wild speculation. Herd immunity strategies cannot be pursued openly,
being political (reelection) liabilities.
Far far more important to the coronovirus debate is how one is supposed to cure with
vaccines, if the jury is still out on acquired immunity. One cannot work without the other,
suggesting that the MSM acceptance of possible vaccine treatment ipso facto means
acquired immunity is a given, but that's not the way the MSM and governments are presenting
this, suggesting that either vaccines cannot possibly work, or that immunity is being aquired
as we speak, while the facade of a fight is kept up.
Since this decree, the hydroxychloroquine molecule marketed under the name of Plaquenil
is therefore no longer available over the counter. A prescription from a doctor is now
mandatory. But this new classification, which came into effect in January, contrary to what
some conspiratorial publications suggest, predates the appearance of the new coronavirus.
Its cousin, chloroquine, appears on this list "in injectable and oral form", since a decree
taken in 1999.
As LCI explains, the National Health Security Agency (ANSES) had been asked for an
opinion on a proposal for an order to include hydroxychloroquine in List II of poisonous
substances in October 2019, "in order to ensure appropriate patient care ". Two months
before the appearance of the new coronavirus in China.
ANSES had given the green light on November 12, 2019. It is therefore false and dishonest
to claim that the former Minister of Health, Ms. Buzyn, would have made this decision
herself during the Covid-19 epidemic.
@onebornfree The Quinism Foundation is a nonprofit charitable organization established to
support education and research on chronic quinoline encephalopathy and other medical
conditions caused by poisoning, or intoxication, by mefloquine, tafenoquine, chloroquine, and
related quinoline drugs.
Executive Director Dr. Remington Dr. Nevin noted his concern that members of the public
may even attempt to obtain therapeutic quantities of quinine through questionable channels.
"Tonic water, whose bitter taste is produced by the addition of quinine or related
naturally-occurring quinolines, is limited by U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulations
to 83 mg per liter of quinine and related cinchona alkaloids," said Dr. Nevin. "However,
drinking several bottles of tonic water will result in consuming pharmaceutical quantities,
and therefore potentially harmful, amounts of these drugs", said Dr. Nevin. "Tonic water is a
prescription medication masquerading as a cocktail mixer."
A single, non-randomized observational trial is close to the bottom of the list in terms of
meaningful medical research, down there with anecdotal reports, particularly in a novel viral
disease with highly variable clinical manifestations and outcomes.
There are also significant potential cardiac risks caused by the Q-T lengthening on one's
EKG caused by both azithromycin and chloroquine. Don't grasp at straws.
@KA You seem quite a knowledge so I hope to obtain your insights, I am not medical.
I heard that the likelihood of ARDS (cytokine storm?) can be detected by a Serum Ferritin
test. If it levels are high, the patient should be given Anakinra, the rheumatoid arthritis
medication, which will prevent ARDS. Neither the test, nor the treatment are being given
because the average Doc who does not specialize in this field, does not know to test for
this.
I understand that Hydroxychloroquin will reduce virulent symptoms in high risk patients
but should be given cautiously.
KA,
I am commenting here first time but have been reading the site for years.
I have two decades of biotech research experience.
I just finished a literature survey about effects of these active pharmaceutical ingredients
or APIs (chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, hydroxychloroquine phosphate).
The APIs have been in human application for very long time and their side effect profile
might be broad but it is not widespread. The most serious problems arise from eventual eye
degenerative effects but those are very-very rare.
These APIs do act on several steps of what you mentioned, starting with receptor binding
interference (ACE2 glycosylation changes), viral entry (impairment of endosome formation),
then viral DNA offloading (interference with virus-containing endosomes fusing with
lysosomes), through viral "work" (impairment of protein synthesis and virion assembly through
stopping of Golgi- and endoplasmatic reticular budding and traffic).
The most interesting part of their actions might however be the inhibition of the viral
RNA-dependent RNA polymerase enzyme. This is done through increasing Zn++ concentration in
the cytoplasm because all of these APIs are ionophores and bring Zn++ ions into the cytosol
through the lipid membrane. High Zn++ "levels" inside the cell block the "xerox machine"of
the viral RNA. So indeed these have at least theoretical effects and in vitro proof is
abundant.
On the contrary, if one looks at the now not too worthwile treatment compilation from
Alipay and Zhezhiang University the use of different antiviral drugs is quite dangerous to
the liver. Many patients on anti-retrovirals developed liver problems. I think the Shanghai
Protocol is much more adequate but to each his own.
With regards to the origins of the virus someone earlier wrote about haplotypes. There are
58 haplotypes (called as such in peer-reviewed publications) and 5 haplogroups of the virus
in two clades (L and S). According to a non peer-reviewed publication at ChinaXiv, 5
haplogroups have only been reported from the US so far. Mainland Chinese enjoyed the society
of only 4 haplogroups while the fifth could be found in Taiwan.
Here is one published Abstract, specific to COVID-19 warns of the toxicity.
Department of Forensic Medicine, Tongji Medical College, Huanzhong University of Science
and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China. LINK
The Trial of Chloroquine in the Treatment of Corona Virus Disease 2019
（COVID-19） and Its Research Progress in Forensic Toxicology.
[.]Since December 2019, COVID-19 （corona virus disease 2019） outbreaks caused
by SARS-CoV-2 （severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2） has occurred
in China and many countries around the world. Due to the lack of drugs against COVID-19,
the disease spreads rapidly and the mortality rate is relatively high. Therefore, specific
drugs against SARS-CoV-2 need to be quickly screened. The antimalarial drug Chloroquine
phosphate which has already been approved is confirmed to have an anti-SARS-CoV-2 effect
and has been included in diagnostic and therapeutic guidelines. However, awareness of the
risk of chloroquine phosphate causing acute poisoning or even death should be strengthened.
The dosage used according to current clinical recommended dosage and course of treatment
are larger than that of previous treatment of malaria. Many provinces have required
close clinical monitoring of adverse reactions. This paper reviews the pharmacological
effects, poisoning;[.]
This is the antiviral treatment recommended in the hand I linked above.
Antiviral Treatment
At FAHZU, lopinavir/ritonavir (2 capsules, po q12h) combined with arbidol (200 mg po q12h)
were applied as the basic regimen. From the treatment experience of 49 patients in our
hospital, the average time to achieve negative viral nucleic acid test for the first time
was 12 days (95% CI: 8-15 days). The duration of negative nucleic acid test result
(negative for more than 2 times consecutively with interval ≥ 24h) was 13.5 days (95%
CI: 9.5 - 17.5 days).If the basic regimen is not effective, chloroquine phosphate can be
used on adults between 18-65 years old (weight ≥ 50 kg: 500 mg bid; weight ≤50 kg:
500 mg bid for first two days, 500 mg qd for following five days).Interferon nebulization
is recommended in Protocols for Diagnosis and Treatment of COVID-19. We recommend that it
should be performed in negative-pressure wards rather than general wards due to the
possibility of aerosol transmission.Darunavir/cobicistat has some degree of antiviral
activity in viral suppression test in vitro, based on the treatment experience of AIDS
patients, and the adverse events are relatively mild. For patients who are intolerant to
lopinavir/ritonavir, darunavir/ cobici-stat (1 tablet qd) or favipiravir (starting dose of
1600 mg followed by 600 mg tid) is an alternative option after the ethical review.
Simultaneous use of three or more antiviral drugs is not recommended.
Course of Treatment
The treatment course of chloroquine phosphate should be no more than 7 days. The treatment
course of other regimens has not been determined and are usually around 2 weeks. Antiviral
drugs should be stopped if nucleic acid test results from sputum specimens remain negative
for more than 3 times
As I've seen it, America's medical establishment enjoys extraordinary powers of
initiative and veto in its engagement with the public, and much of that originates in the
asymmetric doctor-patient relationship, the bad consequences of which were noticed by
Hippocrates 2500 years ago when he tried calling physicians to their better instincts with
his oath.
Good health is indeed a very important factor in Big Medicine's public engagement.
So, too, revenues and profits, autonomy of practice, fee for service, overwhelming influence
and downright control of the distribution of medicine for its own purposes, etc. Will
elements of Big Medicine sacrifice good health for those other factors?
Yes. But you have to look at discrete instances to see how Big Medicine's players are
tempted to go outright criminal. See, for example, the oxycodone killings.
I can't speak to the specifics of your article, Pepe, but it sure as hell meets some
minimum threshold of plausibility to warrant further investigation in my opinion. Thanks
again.
@Mustapha Mond this is the best book on big pharma criminality I have ever seen (written
by an English doctor who writes for the Guardian )
You will not believe what's 'legal' for them to do in their 'research'
It's beyond criminal – but they obviously got their politicians/friends to change laws
to allow what they are doing to proceed – it's really almost unbelievable
and it seems to be even worse in Europe than in the US (another thing I initially found hard
to believe)
"... Put together, they reveal how big a share of the American markets for drugs, medical devices, and protective gear is controlled by goods made overseas. The big takeaway is that the nation could be in big enough trouble if supply disruptions were to occur in normal times (say, due to natural disasters in manufacturing centers abroad). During a high-mortality pandemic like the CCP Virus, these levels of foreign dependency are high enough to guarantee significant numbers of needless deaths. ..."
"... And in fact, the import penetration trends for these products exemplify the nation's health care security weaknesses. In 2002 -- a good baseline, since that's the first year China was a member of the World Trade Organization -- imports overall accounted for 16.7 percent of all surgical appliances and supplies used in the United States (measured by value, not numbers of masks or pairs of gloves). During the first full year of the Great Recession, 2008, this share totaled 28.08 percent. ..."
"... Keeping this qualification in mind, overall, 32.41 percent of surgical appliances and supplies were imported from other countries by 2011, according to these figures. In 2016, that number reached 41.81 percent of a $33.71 billion U.S. market. It may well be higher these days, as between then and last year, U.S. overseas purchases jumped by more than 29 percent. (Interestingly, in light of domestic shortages, U.S. exports in appliances and supplies actually rose by more than 13 percent during this period!) ..."
"... Ventilators, sadly, have been in the news, too; they and related products like oxygen tents and bronchoscopes and inhalators and suction equipment are found in a big goods category called surgical and medical instruments. In 2002, imports from all corners of the world represented 22.04 percent of American consumption. By 2016, this figure stood at 35.91 percent of a $37.5 billion national market, and over the next three years, imports grew nearly 31 percent. (Exports expanded at a relatively slow 11.84 percent.) ..."
"... exclusive U.S. reliance on China for the chemical ingredients of numerous medicines has now become a major federal government concern. ..."
"... The main foreign suppliers to the American pharmaceuticals market as of last year look encouragingly diversified and encouragingly friendly. For example, Ireland was number one, with 22.15 percent of such shipments, followed by Switzerland with 14.05 percent. But third and fourth, with 8.87 percent and 8.39 percent of imports, were Germany and India, respectively, both of which have limited or embargoed their medical exports this year. And number five, at 7.38 percent, was Italy -- whose current CCP Virus devastation could easily bring about export restrictions. ..."
"... Last year, America's leading foreign supplier of surgical and medical instruments (the ventilators category) was Mexico, which sold U.S. customers 28.58 percent of the $17.62 billion of total imports. But export-curber Germany was number three, at 9.43 percent, and China was sixth, at 6.93 percent. ..."
"... Purely domestic policy steps, like mandating more stockpiling or new recycling and re-use strategies, undoubtedly can add to national medical products supplies. But even these general import penetration figures, along with the shortage reports that keep pouring in, make clear that enduring national health care security can't be restored without a major ramping up of domestic output. And since export-heavy economies like China's and Germany's will undoubtedly work overtime to keep their American health care customers -- including with all manner of predatory economic practices -- it's similarly clear that big, lasting U.S. departures from standard free trade policies will be unavoidable. ..."
Not Just China: U.S. Reliance on Foreign Medical Supplies is Staggering
The government's own numbers tell a frightening tale of how this happened, and when.
Virus pandemic having exposed scary domestic shortages of critical medical
goods ranging from safety masks to ventilators, along with potential shortages of
pharmaceuticals, political leaders across the spectrum are finally regretting having allowed so
much output of these products to migrate offshore.
China's role in global supply chains has understandably sparked much of the alarm, since its
government has all but threatened to withhold supplies of medicines whenever it wishes. But all
told, at least 38 countries (including the 27-member European Union) have curbed exports of
anti-pandemic products at some point since the CCP Virus began dominating headlines.
So
potential foreign chokeholds in the nation's health care-related supply chains appear global in
scope. The federal government's best data make clear just how widespread the problem has
become, and how steadily it's been growing.
The figures come from the government's statistics on industry-by-industry manufacturing
output and on exports and imports. (The output data can be accessed through databases created
by the Census Bureau for its Annual Survey of Manufactures that are located at this link . The
trade numbers can be retrieved at an interactive database maintained by the U.S. International
Trade Commission that's located at this link .)
Put together, they reveal how big a share of the American markets for drugs, medical
devices, and protective gear is controlled by goods made overseas. The big takeaway is that the
nation could be in big enough trouble if supply disruptions were to occur in normal times (say,
due to natural disasters in manufacturing centers abroad). During a high-mortality pandemic
like the CCP Virus, these levels of foreign dependency are high enough to guarantee significant
numbers of needless deaths.
These statistics aren't problem-free. Principally, because the manufacturing output figures
are so granular, and therefore take so long to compile, import penetration rates for these (and
other manufactures) can be calculated only through 2016. Yet the more timely import numbers can
provide a reasonable indication of whether vulnerabilities are worsening or shrinking. At the
same time, the government's main trade data aren't nearly as detailed as the production
numbers. As a result, it's not possible to know the percentage of, say, safety masks used in
the United States that are produced abroad. But it's easy to come up with this number for the
category in which masks (and other protective gear) are grouped -- surgical appliances and
supplies.
And in fact, the import penetration trends for these products exemplify the nation's health
care security weaknesses. In 2002 -- a good baseline, since that's the first year China was a
member of the World Trade Organization -- imports overall accounted for 16.7 percent of all
surgical appliances and supplies used in the United States (measured by value, not numbers of
masks or pairs of gloves). During the first full year of the Great Recession, 2008, this share
totaled 28.08 percent.
Notably, these imports from China were a tiny 1.5 percent in 2002, and had actually dropped
to 0.49 percent by 2008. By 2016, they accounted for a seemingly modest 6.54 percent of
American consumption. But here's where another weakness in the data emerges: they say nothing
about the origin of the materials, parts, and components of the final goods.
Keeping this qualification in mind, overall, 32.41 percent of surgical appliances and
supplies were imported from other countries by 2011, according to these figures. In 2016, that
number reached 41.81 percent of a $33.71 billion U.S. market. It may well be higher these days,
as between then and last year, U.S. overseas purchases jumped by more than 29 percent.
(Interestingly, in light of domestic shortages, U.S. exports in appliances and supplies
actually rose by more than 13 percent during this period!)
Ventilators, sadly, have been in the news, too; they and related products like oxygen tents
and bronchoscopes and inhalators and suction equipment are found in a big goods category called
surgical and medical instruments. In 2002, imports from all corners of the world represented
22.04 percent of American consumption. By 2016, this figure stood at 35.91 percent of a $37.5
billion national market, and over the next three years, imports grew nearly 31 percent.
(Exports expanded at a relatively slow 11.84 percent.)
Again, the China figures are small beans -- the import penetration rate for 2016 was a mere
2.35 percent. But these products often contain lots of electronics parts, and half the world's
printed circuit boards, for example, are made in the People's Republic. In other words, lots of
existing global surge capacity throughout the sector is ultimately controlled by Beijing.
Thanks to the work of researchers like the Hastings Center's Rosemary Gibson and independent
journalist Katherine Eban, heavy and sometimes exclusive U.S. reliance on China for the
chemical ingredients of numerous medicines has now become a major federal government concern.
Indeed, the Food and Drug Administration is keeping an especially close eye on the availability
of no fewer than 20 pharmaceutical products that use Chinese raw materials. (Unfortunately, the
FDA won't say what they are, which calls for some Freedom of Information Act requests,
pronto.)
But the import penetration figures make clear that supply disruptions could also originate
elsewhere. Between 2002 and 2016, drugs produced overseas more than doubled their share of
America's consumption (which stood at nearly $200 billion three years ago), from 17.23 percent
to 38.51 percent. As of 2019, moreover, U.S. drugs imports were 20.34 percent higher than in
2016.
The main foreign suppliers to the American pharmaceuticals market as of last year look
encouragingly diversified and encouragingly friendly. For example, Ireland was number one, with
22.15 percent of such shipments, followed by Switzerland with 14.05 percent. But third and
fourth, with 8.87 percent and 8.39 percent of imports, were Germany and India, respectively,
both of which have limited or embargoed their medical exports this year. And number five, at
7.38 percent, was Italy -- whose current CCP Virus devastation could easily bring about export
restrictions.
Nor is this pattern restricted to pharmaceuticals. Last year, America's leading foreign
supplier of surgical and medical instruments (the ventilators category) was Mexico, which sold
U.S. customers 28.58 percent of the $17.62 billion of total imports. But export-curber Germany
was number three, at 9.43 percent, and China was sixth, at 6.93 percent.
For surgical appliances and supplies (the masks and protective gear category), Ireland
topped the 2019 foreign supplier list, selling the United States 24.09 percent of its $18.21
billion of total imports. But China was second, at 15.29 percent, and in third place, at 9.68
percent, stood Malaysia, which banned mask exports on March 20.
Purely domestic policy steps, like mandating more stockpiling or new recycling and re-use
strategies, undoubtedly can add to national medical products supplies. But even these general
import penetration figures, along with the shortage reports that keep pouring in, make clear
that enduring national health care security can't be restored without a major ramping up of
domestic output. And since export-heavy economies like China's and Germany's will undoubtedly
work overtime to keep their American health care customers -- including with all manner of
predatory economic practices -- it's similarly clear that big, lasting U.S. departures from
standard free trade policies will be unavoidable.
Alan Tonelson is the founder of RealityChek, a public policy blog focusing on economics
and national security, and the author of The Race to the Bottom .
there are shortages of masks and gloves for the frontline so joe and jane may not be allowed.
Governments are partnering with manufacturing companies. How bad is it?
"Physicians are being warned not to speak or post publicly about their COVID-19
experiences, including PPE shortages, case specifics, and the percentage of full hospital
beds,[.]
Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a
calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes - how to weigh the "save at all costs"
approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and
nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.
The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling
stores of protective equipment - such as masks, gowns and gloves - may be too great to
justify the conventional response when a patient "codes," and their heart or breathing
stops.
Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a universal
do-not-resuscitate policy for infected patients, regardless of the wishes of the patient or
their family members - a wrenching decision to prioritize the lives of the many over the
one.[.]
Canada and U.S. were in discussions? U.S. considers putting troops at Canadian border.
The masks are useful even if they aren't 100% useful in blocking water droplets, insofar as
wearing a mask makes it much less likely that you will touch your mouth with your hands or
stick your finger in your nose.
If you also get into the habit of vigorously washing your hands before and after eating,
well, you have done most of the hard yards in avoiding infection.
Some important details on the France ibuprofen yes or no debate: Source
The trouble over ibuprofen began March 11, when researchers at University Hospital Basel,
in Switzerland, and Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, in Greece, published a letter in
The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. The letter reviewed three early sets of case reports from
China, covering almost 1,300 patients gravely ill with Covid-19. The letter's authors
observed that significant numbers of those patients had high blood pressure and diabetes,
from 12 percent to 30 percent depending on the study, and theorized that higher rates of
expression of a particular enzyme, known for short as ACE2, might be raising the risk of
coronavirus infection.
ACE2 provides a place on cell surfaces for the coronavirus to attach and enter in order
to replicate. High blood pressure and diabetes are treated with drugs that suppress
inflammation, called ACE inhibitors; the inhibitors, paradoxically, cause ACE2 to rise.
That interaction is where the authors spotted a possible connection between patients
experiencing chronic diseases and then becoming infected with Covid-19.
And that's where ibuprofen entered the unfolding story, too. The over-the-counter drug
doesn't only knock down fever. It also reduces inflammation (the class of drugs it belongs
to are known as NSAIDs, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs). That effect, as with the
anti-inflammatory drugs given to chronic disease patients, can cause ACE2 to rise.
So any anti-inflammatory - whether ibuprofen or actual anti-inflammatory drugs - *can*
(not will) cause ACE2 to rise. And ACE2 is what nCOV latches on to.
So the acetominophen/paracetamol vs. ibuprofen has nothing to do with the fever reduction
side but the potential increase of ACE2, which *might* increase susceptibility to
nCOV.
On the protection issue, use FFP 3 respirator masks (EU), or N99 (US) or KN 99 (China) and
scarf over it. These masks filter 98 % of micro particles, including viruses. In case of mask
shortages steam can be used to decontaminate masks. Also use gloves, eye protection and
raincoat when in risky areas. Everything new taken in your home must be under 3 - 4 days
quarantine in separate room. The raincoat too. After this quarantine items can be further
cleaned with steam, ethanol, bleach + water, and groceries via soap and water.
Virus can stay for 3 hours in mid air (room) and 3 days on some surfaces. And it is
possible that can even survive for up to 17 days on some surfaces, which would be pretty bad
news. At least 5 meters distance between people outside is needed.
1. do not steam your masks. they are made of polyester and will shrink into a blob. people
have tried and failed. you can wash with soap and dry or low temp bake as B suggested. they
will eventually fail from delaminating or the elastic band snapping.
2. stop behaving like you don't want to catch it, behave like you have it and you don't
want others to catch it. we'll all be better off.
3. going on 2 - wearing masks with exhaust valves will just spray virus straight out of
you're infected. if you're not sure you're infected (and you don't) wearing a valves N95 is
just a dick act.
4. when PPE were in short supply in China, what they did was to wear N95 with surgical
mask over the top. it's definitely off-label use but at least you can then reuse your
precious N95 as it's shielded from external pathogens, at the same time your own exhaust
valve (see 3) is also shielded from others.
Malaria is a single cell bug called a protozoa. My understanding that is a class of bugs like
bacteria and viruses are classes of bugs.
Mosquitoes carry or host the bug and pass it onto people. The quinine type drugs block the
bug and prevent it from attaching or entering cells. That is how the drug also works against
the corona viruses. Various strains of the malaria bug have developed resistance to various
drugs.
Because SARS-CoV-2 is a new bug, it should not have developed a resistance to any
drug.
Human immunity is directed at pathogens and seems very specific even to strains as can be
seen with influenza vaccines, and the malaria protozoa is a very different animal to the
SARS-CoV-2 virus.
That's the basics as I know it. Others here may be able to explain it a little
better.
Exactly, a containment strategy with universal testing and quarantine of the infected (ill
and asymptomatic) at home or safe facilities is required keep western society from collapsing
from this and future waves of the novel coronavirus until a treatment or vaccine is
developed.
The problem in the USA is that this will require the reconstruction of the government and
a national public health system to run the monitoring and quarantine system. Instead, the
corrupt oligarchy will use government money to rescue themselves rather than saving the lives
of Americans.
The neoliberal wrecking of our hospital system has been widely cited as a cause of the
crisis. Among other things, hospitals reduced the number of beds, sold ventilators, and ran
down supplies of masks and protective clothing in order to increase profitability.
On the way to this crisis, the private hospital industry gave the American public the
actions and the rhetoric of the Milo Minderbinder character from Catch-22:
What's good for M & M Enterprises will be good for the country.
Milo stripped out and sold all kinds of life-saving kit: morphine vials, parachutes, CO2
inflator cartridges for life vests. Milo epitomizes the neoliberal short-term, bottom-line,
zero-redundancy world view that has looted America and corrupted its democracy over the last
40 years.
Just like the hapless flightcrew in Catch-22, Americans are discovering the true meaning
behind the private hospitals' claim that what was good for their corporations was good for
the "crew" as they survey the looted and privatized corpse of their healthcare system.
What was satire 50 years ago, is reality today. We had a preview of this when Rumsfeld ran
the DoD.
Was Donald Rumsfeld channeling Milo (and laughing up his sleeve) when he said:
It is clearly cost-effective to have contractors for a variety of things that military
people need not do, and that, for whatever reason, other civilians, government people,
cannot be deployed to do...
But I personally am of the view that there are a lot of things that can be done on a
short-time basis by contractors that advantage the United States and advantage other
countries who also hire contractors. And that any idea that we shouldn't have them, I
think, would be unwise.
- D. Rumsfeld, Rumsfeld's Speech on the Future of Iraq (2005)
This is an hour with experts who ran the Singapore response. It answers many of our questions
and also those which cannot yet be answered. I resisted listening because it's an hour, but
it was worthwhile. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3w8gu9S3lo
Tests and care for Covid-19 must be for free. We need hospitals to care for only the
critical cases. We need quarantine centers to isolate the milder cases from the wider
population. Many hotels, sport arenas and exhibition halls are currently empty. They can be
converted into quarantine stations within a day or two. People will have to stay for only two
weeks. They would be fed and would have medical attention. That is a small restriction of the
freedom of a few for a large benefit for our societies.
A number of studies have reported that a significant portion of people are even spreading the
virus while presymptomatic -- in the day or two before they start to feel ill. Presymptomatic
spreaders are, well, gonna spread. It's not their fault.
How much this type of transmission is driving the pandemic is unclear but it could be
significant. Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong, has estimated
about 40% of cases transmit before symptoms develop. A recent preprint -- a study that has
not yet been peer-reviewed -- from China pooled data from seven countries and estimated a
very similar 43%.
The novel coronavirus is spread to a large part by people who stay asymptomatic and by
people who do not yet feel sick but will later show symptoms. When they talk, sneeze or cough
they release small droplets that carry viruses. The droplets can stay in the air for some time.
If a person coming along inhales those droplets the viruses will likely infect that person.
Those who have have the virus or might spread it should wear a mask because it prevents
their droplets from flying out. Those who do not have the virus should wear a mask to prevent
droplets from entering their body.
We were told that 'masks don't work' because they are not a 100% protection. The very tiny
viruses can pass behind the mask at its sides or they can slip through its webbing. But the
virus is not traveling alone but as part of a droplet. Even a relatively wide webbing may hold
it up. If it is doubled with a sheet of cosmetic paper towel in between the protection will be
even better. Microfilter bags for vacuum cleaners and so called HEPA filters are also effective materials that are
readily available and easy to turn into masks.
The development of the epidemic will depend on how many people will start to regularly wear
masks when they are not at home. Even if the protection masks prevent only 50% of new
infections the speed with which the epidemic will unfold will be significantly lower.
Consider that the societies in the blue circle are all ones where people regularly wear
masks while the other countries (except China which was surprised by the outbreak) are
societies were wearing a mask is seen as unusual. These 'blue' countries, which also gained
experience during the SARS and MERS epidemics, show significant flatter trajectories.
Graphs similar to the above for all U.S. states and territories can be found here .
Meanwhile U.S. media continue to spread anti-China propaganda:
Medical personnel in Spain and the Czech Republic have reported that the coronavirus rapid
tests their respective countries have received from China are faulty and have a high error
rate.
Several labs in Spanish hospitals have reported that the test kits they purchased,
manufactured by Chinese company Bioeasy and based in Shenzhen, have a sensitivity of 30% when
the sensitivity should be above 80%, Spanish newspaper El País reported Thursday. Due
to the test's lack of reliability, medical personnel in Spain have switched back to the PCR
test, which takes up to four hours for a diagnosis, while rapid tests take between 10 to 15
minutes
The Spanish government purchased 340,000 tests from the Chinese company, a similar
quantity to the tests ordered by the Czech Republic, where medical personnel also report an
80% failure rate.
When one checks the original reports
from Spain and from the
Czech Republic one learns that these countries bought anti-body tests which only react when
a person has had the virus for some time and developed anti-bodies against it. These tests can
obviously not be used to find persons who are infected but have not yet developed
anti-bodies.
China's ambassador in Spain also pointed out that these tests
have yet to be verified by the regulator and were imported without the help or knowledge of the
Chinese government.
The anti-body tests are valuable to identify people who have developed current immunity
against the virus. These people can then care for those who are most endangered by the disease.
Anti-body tests are quick. They can be used anywhere.
The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests which are currently necessary to find if someone
has the virus take at least four hours and specialized laboratories to process them. We will
need a much quicker reliable test if we want to put our economies back to work. Luckily several
companies and academic groups are already working on these and a 45 minute test is now
ready to be marketed .
When we have a quick test for the virus and a quick test for anti-bodies available in mass
we can restart the economy by 'filtering' through the population on a large scale. Movement
restrictions would then only be needed for those who show virus-positive and anti-body negative
results. All others could go back to work.
There would certainly still be outbreaks from people who escaped the 'filtering' process but
with easy testing and care in place those clusters can be locally contained.
It may take another two month or so to get to that point. Until then there is little we can
do but to stay apart as much as possible and to wear our masks.
Have seen no data on how many viral particles it takes to cause a serious effect. Likely,
such data would be in terms of probability at X [number of viral particles]. Such is known
for many infective agents in surface and aerosol form, but CV19 may be very different.
Can CV19 vapor aerosol from mouth/breath in still air, exclusive of explosive discharge
via cough/sneeze, cause full-blown case beyond 6 feet? I'd like to know.
Also, have not seen any data re time duration of infective after it enters throat passage
on journey to lungs. I posit that there are anti-viral liquids that might be effective if
small amount were trickled down throat 2x per day; surely just before bedtime to discourage
the next 7-hs of undisturbed incubation. I do take something that I am guessing may be
effective. [E.g., I also
"heard" OliveOilExtract as anti-viral but I have no experience with it.]
Another thought: Re different strains of CV19 having very different outcomes...Anyone
suggestion that US forms collectively having, say, milder outcomes relative to
China/Iran/LombardyItaly, etc? Seems to be an aversion to testing the general population, or
even publishing all results of the small amount of tests with time+place data. Where are the
lists of 1st observations of "unusual flu" in US? that would NORMALLY, provoke tracking +
names/places of sequential contacts?
Routine discovery and mapping of communication lines is very likely to uncover a lot of
truth. That is what rational folks desire.
I think that Ron Unz is gravely mistaken in his analysis here.
There is a growing body of opinion amongst medical professionals and academics that questions
the benefits of a lockdown balanced against what we know of the danger from the virus. Ron
has not included any of this in his article here, and he should.
Studies are emerging which are indeed showing that infection stats may be orders of magnitude
higher than official estimates, that hospitalisation rates are therefore much lower, and the
overall threat overshaddowed by the consequences of closing down the economy and open
society.
As ever the media is the prime culprit in spreading fear and hysteria. Alt media have an
obligation to question the very basis of the covid pandemic response. 'The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) confirmed that they count all
test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as „coronavirus
deaths". The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in
most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in
Germany.' https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
12 experts speak out: https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/
From yesterday in WSJ ('Is The Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?'): https://archive.fo/cgCff
A study from Oxford University Epdemiologists confirming doubts about lethality: https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0
Even the UK government website confirms that the covid virus has been re-classified as no
longer on the register of High Consequence Infectious Diseases (on March 19th, just before
the government closed down the whole society).
There is more going on here than the virus. Maybe it is incompetence and panic, or something
more disturbing. Either way, alt media voices have a duty to report the growing doubt about
how deadly this virus really is or isn't.
According to Dr. Ferguson the "best case" scenario is that the Coronavirus will kill
over a million Americans.
According to the pie chart below, which is based on the Italian experience, 99.2% of those
who die have one or more pre-existing health condition. I suspect that if you were to exclude
those under 60, the result would go up to 99.9%
This data strongly suggests that only those who are over 60 should be obliged to remain at
home. This virus has seemingly been going around the USA since last September and a lot of
those who caught it and died were classified as flu victims or something else.
Every year, several millions die in the USA. That is normal. The deaths allegedly from
this virus would have probably died anyway. At worst, their useless lives would have been
curtailed by one or two years. Don't forget that 90% of a person's lifetime health costs are
expended in the past year of "life". BTW, I am 69 so don't accuse me of ageism or any such
nonsense please.
Similarly, New York reported its first death on March 14th. Yet just ten days later,
deaths in that state were running at 50 per day, and rapidly accelerating.
You mean first death attributed to Covid-19 after testing started. How many died of
Covid-19 before testing? It is not known at what stage of the epidemic, testing started
therefore accuracy of data is suspect.
The Coronavirus epidemic may soon produce the greatest American disaster since our Civil
War over 150 years ago, and numbers reveal the possible magnitude.
The current data out of China, and Wuhan in particular, suggest otherwise. They have
closed all 19 temporary hospitals set up there to treat the coronavirus infections. The only
way you can believe a minimum of one million Americans will die from the coronavirus is to
believe that these figures from Hubei province have been falsified in some way.
Hubei, China
Confirmed: 67,801
Deaths: 3,163
Recovered: 60,811
Existing: 3,827
@niteranger When considering what the authorities, both medical and political, are
constantly telling us about how deadly this pandemic is, I think back to my college
Statistics course of nearly 50 years ago. On the first day of class the professor told the
old joke that "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics." I'm sure most who read here have
heard of that bromide, but it is still well to keep it in mind. Don't forget, most have an
agenda.
If that's the case, then maybe I don't need to worry that most of the people where I live
seem, like St-Germain, above, too dumb to understand the meaning of the term social
distancing .
For the victims of coronavirus the median time from the first symptoms to hospitalization is
4 days, and the median time to death is 8 days, according to a report by the Italian National
Institute of Health.
The study comes as the number of Covid-19 deaths in the country continues to increase. On
Wednesday, the number of people who have died from coronavirus jumped to 2,978, recording the
largest one-day increase - 475 - since the beginning of the outbreak, while
the number of infected people rose to over
28,000.
According to the study, which was run on 2,003 patients who have died from coronavirus, the
most affected region is Lombardy reporting around 71.1% of the deaths, followed by
Emilia-Romagna (17.3%) and Veneto (3.9%).
The median age of death is 80.5 while the
median age of the people who got infected is 63. As of March 17, among the coronavirus victims
only 17 people were younger than age 50 and only 30% were women.
The majority of patients were treated with
antibiotics (83%), while antiviral therapies were used in 52% of cases.
According to the study, most of the people who have died suffered from previous illnesses
before contracting the coronavirus. Based on a sample of 355 out of 2003 fatalities, the
institute found that almost half of the victims had three or more illnesses, a quarter had
either two or one prior medical condition - such as high blood pressure (76%), diabetes (35.5%)
and heart disease (33%) - and only 3 people, or 0.8% of the sample, had no previous
illnesses.
@NPleeze
Oxford's Centre for Evidence Based Medicine is providing regular updates of an estimate of
the infection fatality rate for Covid-19. Their current estimate is 0.20% (95% CI, 0.17 to
0.25).
Two Stanford doctors writing in The Wall Street Journal suggest that the fatality rate
could be as low as 0.01%, which is about one-tenth the mortality of seasonal flu. They
suggest that a better strategy than widespread lockdowns would be to focus on protecting
vulnerable members of the population, particularly the elderly.
Both of these estimates would result in far, far fewer deaths than the garbage-in
garbage-out models produced by Imperial College and others.
You are right. While corona in my view is absolutely bonkers, and as my conviction mounts
with every half witted calculation that I come across, it gains its own dimension in reality.
The cause is non-existent but the consequences are real:
People die in overwhelmed hospitals in run down health systems. The world economy is breaking
down, as it was going to anyhow. The convenient scapegoat has been found and the interest for
the PTB to allow the truth to come out is zero.
Will we get laws that make Corona-denial illegal? Because it dishonors the dead and
traumatizes their families?
I am praying to Saint Ron to fearlessly tell the truth, but he goes corona full steam.
I have written this before. My Damaskus moment was Kiew in february 2014. Since then I
have known that the same people who were behind that thing would set my country and the world
on fire in time.
I marvel at their inventiveness.
Similarly, once government lockdowns or other similar measures are taken, the
doubling-period of the infection becomes much longer.
I'm pretty certain that there's no doubling once a country, (province, city, whatever)
enacts a relatively comprehensive lockdown and people themselves take it seriously. I'm in
one of those countries and if I look around it's clear that the R0 ratio is way below 1.
Probably less than 0.1 to be honest.
If I remember correctly, COVID-19 R0 ratio in China was somewhere around 3.5 when the
country was still figuring it out. That's a horrible number but it's easy to see how it can
be brought down to a tiny fraction when 95% of risky contacts get removed and the remaining
5% approached with protective gear and caution. The virus doesn't stand a chance in that kind
of environment.
So, the numbers in my neck of the woods will almost certainly start decreasing rapidly in
the coming weeks but the problem of international travel will remain for many months
(years?).
I also remember some of early estimates of Mad Cow disease in humans in UK and they
turned out to be very exaggerated.
When the political class was trying to de-gay HIV/AIDS in 1987, they had Oprah tell
everyone that 20% of heterosexual people would be dead before 1990.
The first I learned of Oprah's jaw-droppingly sensationalist remarks, was in a piece a
couple of days ago on AmericanThinker (which sounds like a rare bird indeed, if not an
outright oxymoron – but it has good stuff from time to time).
Anyhow, it was an interesting piece – entitled
" Reflections on a Century of Junk Science " by the author of " Hoodwinked: How
Intellectual Hucksters Have Hijacked American Culture ", which I will acquire today. (The
book's 11 years old, but sounds like it will be along the same lines as Kendrick's "
Doctoring Data: How to Sort Out Medical Advice from Medical Nonsense ", which was
excellent).
@UncommonGround ,,,As of March 19th there were 93 Corona deaths in Bergamo and counting.
As of March 19th five Italian doctors and 13 medics have lost their lives with 2,629 health
workers infected, or 8,3 per cent.
I will keep this comment as brief as possible.
I welcome refutation of these theses, which I believe are crucial to any analysis of the
response to the pandemic:
1. Current screening tests for COVID19 (a PCR test, not an antibody test) have a high rate of
false positives (see excellent contributions on this topic from Kratoklastes).
2. Draconian public health responses are allegedly aimed at minimizing serious COVID19
disease (severe respiratory distress, up to and including ARDS). "Positive" testing
individuals overwhelming do not fall into this category.
3. At this juncture, our best single metric is death from COVID19. Unfortunately the
definition of a COVID19 fatality varies between jurisdictions. To be counted as such a
fatality, the current best definition would be: novel coronovirus IgM (+/- IgG) positive
(proof of recent infection) plus ARDS (radiologically, if not pathologically, confirmed).
4. Alleged COVID19 fatalities are overwhelming patients >70 having 3 or more serious
comorbidities.
5. There is an association between ACE-inhibitor or AT-receptor antagonist use and likelihood
of death from infection by novel coronavirus.
To the last point: nearly 40% of the Italian fatalities were using ACE inhibitors (and
this may be an underestimate as pre-admission medication charts were lacking). The virus
binds to the pulmonary ACE2 receptor.
Conceivably the use of ACE-inhibitors (or the related AT-receptor antagonists) induces
upregulation of this receptor, but this is purely conjecture on my part.
Anecdotally, use of this medication class is lower in Germany, which has been proffered among
reasons for its lower fatality rates.
@Realist I have two family members in UK who have already recovered after testing
positive and I, myself, suffered ten days with an unpleasant dry cough, malaise and low grade
fever late in February – which has since cleared uneventfully. I was never tested and,
following my GP, discounted being infected with COVID-19 at that time.
An antibody test for COVID-19 virus exposure is near to becoming commercially available
and this is likely to be widely used in order to identify people who can safely volunteer to
help with the pandemic – it may provide some interesting statistics and a different
management perspective.
March 20, 2020 STUNNING! Via the CDC As of Friday There Are 100 TIMES AS MANY Flu Deaths in
US this Season than Coronavirus Deaths
According to the weekly CDC flu report -- flu deaths are up by 1,000 over last week. And
according to the global coronavirus trackers US coronavirus deaths are up by 218 this
week.
Nov 4, 2019 Event 201 Pandemic Exercise: Segment 4, Communications Discussion and Epilogue
Video
Event 201 is a pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health
Security. The exercise illustrated the pandemic preparedness efforts needed to diminish the
large-scale economic and societal consequences of a severe pandemic.
"... The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesse ..."
"... I share your skepticism. Do the "tests" prove that COVID-19 causes illness? Is it possible that some or even all of the deaths associated with COVID-19 have been primarily caused by other factors? Is it possible that COVID-19 is very widespread in contemporary populations and is harmless in most or even all people in which it exists? ..."
"However, the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable"
Are they really?
Report shows up to 88% of Italy's alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed
"The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the
people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus [
] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death
certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients
who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,"
– Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health
Report in English:
the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable
But still quite unreliable. Nobody knows what tests are being performed or how accurate
those tests are. For all we know they are calling flu/pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths,
whether deliberately/recklessly (pressured) or because the tests are simply faulty.
If we assume a mortality rate of 1%
Based on what? As noted, the best case of a general population exposure is the Diamond
Princess – where all passengers were exposed fully for 2 weeks and then under terrible
quarantine conditions for 4 weeks. Of the 3,177 passengers and crew, some 677 (20%) took ill,
and 7 (0.2% of the population, and 1% of the ill) died, all of them in their 70s and older
(and indeed the data released by the Japanese health ministry indicates the ship had twice
the number of people in each age category 60-79, 70-79, and 80+ than does the US).
Conveniently, everyone repeating the hysteria line completely omits to look at the best
data available.
Number of infected = Number of Deaths / Mortality_Rate *
2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)
Nothing in nature is exponential as everything runs up against some barrier, usually
sooner than later. I can make the argument about rabbit reproduction: each female rabbit can
produce 60 rabbits per year in three litters. This would indicate that each male/female pair
increases 10-fold every 3 months – a far faster growth rate than your virus. And under
certain conditions, they can, for a time, accomplish that before they hit the proverbial
brick wall.
Let's look at Italy. The first recorded death (FWIW) was Feb. 21. Now using your
assumptions, there had been 100 new infections three weeks earlier (on Jan. 31). Next, as you
assume a doubling-period of 6 days, those 100 infections would have increased to 100 x
2^(37/6) = 7,183 infections by the time of March 8, when the emergency orders went into
effect. However, on March 8 there had already been 366 deaths. Since the disease, according
to your model, takes 3 weeks to kill, this means we need to look at the number of infections
on Feb. 21, which, in your model, equals 100 x 2^(21/6) = 1,131.
In other words, on Feb. 21 there were 1,131 persons infected, and of those, 366 had died
by March 8. For a mortality rate of 32.3%.
But let's work backwards from another date. By Mar. 24, there had been 6,820 deaths. To
arrive at that, using your assumed death rate, that means by Mar. 3, 682,000 people had to be
infected (since 1% of them would die within 3 weeks). Which means, according to your model,
that 341,000 were infected on Feb. 26, 170,500 on Feb. 20. But your model already showed that
only 1,131 were infected on Feb. 21.
In other words, this "model" is utter bunk.
What we do know is as follows: the death rate on the Diamond Princess, under terrible
conditions, was 0.2%, all over 70.
The global death rate is about 18,000 dead out of 7 billion. The annual tuberculosis death
number is between 1 and 2 million.
That people who are very old (and thus have compromised immune systems) or people who have
various chronic diseases are the ones who die from this disease. This is because the virus
can attack numerous receptors, including those in the kidney, liver, heart, white blood
cells, and pancreas (a sort of "frankenstein" bio-engineered virus). Thus anyone with a weak
pancreas (diabetes), kidney, liver, heart (hypertension, etc.), or lungs (smokers, etc.) are
susceptible to having an organ fail.
The death rate will grow only among this segment of the population. It is enough to
isolate them (or, better yet, have them self-isolate).
The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I
wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise,
and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.
All of this apart from the issue, of how long this virus has been in the wild. It seems my
mother caught this disease in early February, in a small Midwestern isolated community
– she had what are given at the symptoms, but nobody was looking for it at the time, so
there is no diagnosis of her illness.
I share your skepticism.
Do the "tests" prove that COVID-19 causes illness?
Is it possible that some or even all of the deaths associated with COVID-19 have been
primarily caused by other factors?
Is it possible that COVID-19 is very widespread in contemporary populations and is harmless
in most or even all people in which it exists?
These questions deserve forensically rigorous investigation – conducted and reported
honestly.
A new study shows the coronavirus mortality rate in Wuhan, China, may have been lower
than previous estimates.
According to research published in the monthly Nature Medicine journal, the death rate
from the coronavirus disease, COVID-19, in Wuhan -- the epicenter of the global outbreak --
was 1.4%.
"Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case
fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was
1.4%," reads the body_abstract of the study.
The study -- titled "Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission
dynamics in Wuhan, China" -- said the estimate was "substantially lower than both the
corresponding crude or naive confirmed case fatality risk".
Previous estimates placed the mortality rate in Wuhan between 2% to 3%.
Underlining that fatality risk was higher for the elderly, the study found 2.6%
mortality rate among people over 60 years in Wuhan, 0.5% for people aged between 30 to 59,
and 0.3% for people under 30 years.
The COVID-19 outbreak that started in Wuhan has been declared a pandemic by the World
Health Organization (WHO).
Data compiled by the U.S.-based Johns Hopkins University shows the virus has now spread
to 167 countries and regions.
Over 341,700 cases and 14,750 deaths have been reported worldwide since last December,
while more than 98,860 people have recovered.
Transmission in China has slowed down over recent weeks, with authorities reporting no
new indigenous cases on Monday.
There were also no new infections in Wuhan city for the fifth consecutive day, according
to China's National Health Commission.
#COVIDー19 vs #flu
'So far, #COVIDー19 has led to > 220,000 illnesses and >9,300 deaths worldwide.
But that's nothing compared with the flu. In the US alone, flu has caused an estimated 36
million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season, according to CDC.
' https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
I am pretty sure they were in the initial period but once the epidemic spreads into areas
with different population densities where doubling periods are different and when new
countermeasures are being implemented you will see departures from the exponential
growth.
Even w/o countermeasures when more and more people get infected the reproduction number R0
will be getting smaller resulting in a steady decrease of the exponential coefficient.
Zhanwei Du et al. studied the exponential growth in Wuhan in the period before quarantine
was imposed. See the Appendix in
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0146_article
The COVID-19 epidemic was growing exponentially during December 1, 2019– January 22,
2020, as determined by the following: dI(t) = I0 × exp(λ × t) in which
I0 denotes the number of initial cases on December 1, 2019, and λ denotes the
epidemic growth rate during December 1, 2019–January 22, 2020.
What is important about Ron Unz approach is that by looking at daily death increments one
can gage the number of new infections and as the epidemic progresses the changes in doubling
period would be adjusted from daily death increments.
In times when very few tests are being done to asymptomatic patients and no serum tests
are performed to determine who already went through infection and recovered this approach is
very useful and simple method to estimate the extent of the epidemic.
"So far we know:
-tests have large error margin
-positive tests only associated with small chance of being sick
-vast majority of COVID-19 cases have other serious diseases
-We have 80x more pneumonia cases than COVID-19
Are these good reasons to suspend the lives of billions?"
the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable
But still quite unreliable. Nobody knows what tests are being performed or how accurate
those tests are. For all we know they are calling flu/pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths,
whether deliberately/recklessly (pressured) or because the tests are simply faulty.
If we assume a mortality rate of 1%
Based on what? As noted, the best case of a general population exposure is the Diamond
Princess – where all passengers were exposed fully for 2 weeks and then under terrible
quarantine conditions for 4 weeks. Of the 3,177 passengers and crew, some 677 (20%) took ill,
and 7 (0.2% of the population, and 1% of the ill) died, all of them in their 70s and older
(and indeed the data released by the Japanese health ministry indicates the ship had twice
the number of people in each age category 60-79, 70-79, and 80+ than does the US).
Conveniently, everyone repeating the hysteria line completely omits to look at the best
data available.
Number of infected = Number of Deaths / Mortality_Rate *
2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)
Nothing in nature is exponential as everything runs up against some barrier, usually
sooner than later. I can make the argument about rabbit reproduction: each female rabbit can
produce 60 rabbits per year in three litters. This would indicate that each male/female pair
increases 10-fold every 3 months – a far faster growth rate than your virus. And under
certain conditions, they can, for a time, accomplish that before they hit the proverbial
brick wall.
Let's look at Italy. The first recorded death (FWIW) was Feb. 21. Now using your
assumptions, there had been 100 new infections three weeks earlier (on Jan. 31). Next, as you
assume a doubling-period of 6 days, those 100 infections would have increased to 100 x
2^(37/6) = 7,183 infections by the time of March 8, when the emergency orders went into
effect. However, on March 8 there had already been 366 deaths. Since the disease, according
to your model, takes 3 weeks to kill, this means we need to look at the number of infections
on Feb. 21, which, in your model, equals 100 x 2^(21/6) = 1,131.
In other words, on Feb. 21 there were 1,131 persons infected, and of those, 366 had died
by March 8. For a mortality rate of 32.3%.
But let's work backwards from another date. By Mar. 24, there had been 6,820 deaths. To
arrive at that, using your assumed death rate, that means by Mar. 3, 682,000 people had to be
infected (since 1% of them would die within 3 weeks). Which means, according to your model,
that 341,000 were infected on Feb. 26, 170,500 on Feb. 20. But your model already showed that
only 1,131 were infected on Feb. 21.
In other words, this "model" is utter bunk.
What we do know is as follows: the death rate on the Diamond Princess, under terrible
conditions, was 0.2%, all over 70.
The global death rate is about 18,000 dead out of 7 billion. The annual tuberculosis death
number is between 1 and 2 million.
That people who are very old (and thus have compromised immune systems) or people who have
various chronic diseases are the ones who die from this disease. This is because the virus
can attack numerous receptors, including those in the kidney, liver, heart, white blood
cells, and pancreas (a sort of "frankenstein" bio-engineered virus). Thus anyone with a weak
pancreas (diabetes), kidney, liver, heart (hypertension, etc.), or lungs (smokers, etc.) are
susceptible to having an organ fail.
The death rate will grow only among this segment of the population. It is enough to
isolate them (or, better yet, have them self-isolate).
The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I
wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise,
and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.
All of this apart from the issue, of how long this virus has been in the wild. It seems my
mother caught this disease in early February, in a small Midwestern isolated community
– she had what are given at the symptoms, but nobody was looking for it at the time, so
there is no diagnosis of her illness.
Isn't the real issue this (numerically and culturally): we have a health care system,
which is obviously not made to provide services to every single American whenever they
need it, all at the same time , and this pandemic is likely to kill say, a million old
people (given how large our overall population is), and since no one "gets" to just die (ala
Soylent Green) but instead gets sick at 70, 80, etc and has to be preserved forever so
anything that "burns" through what would be an otherwise healthy population, as with all
animals (including humans) historically, instead becomes such a serious risk (if not somewhat
random) to the old or infirm, that we shut everything down, potentially causing all sorts of
other human catastrophes so that some old folks get to choose another death (maybe the flu?)
over a Covid-19 death?
Long run on sentence, but isn't that really what this is all about now ?
Bmac
says: Show Comment March
25, 2020 at 12:28 pm GMT 100 Words Neill Ferguson of Imperial College London argues that
every fatality represents an infected population one thousand strong.
"... The state governments prefer that all schools be closed while Canberra is receiving advice from Dr Brendan Murphy, Chief Health Officer of Australia, that schools not be closed because children would be at more risk of picking up COVID-19 from adults at home, and from congregating in areas where they are not being supervised by adults if they decide not to stay at home for various reasons (because among other things they would also be at risk from domestic violence). ..."
"... Please don't feel brainwashed into taking totally unnecessary extra precautions beyond normal levels of hygiene in order to protect yourself from a common coronavirus. ..."
"... The behavior of elites across the globe suggest a level of collective anxiety not seen in before in my lifetime. Certainly endless decades of oligarchic control maintained through keeping Western populations mystified by means of coordinated mass propaganda – has seen rather significant cracks develop through the emergence of progressive independent journalism shared across the world via the web. One would think those ever widening cracks in the indoctrination system have perhaps clarified for our betters that their fairy tales are falling upon ever greater numbers of deaf ears around the globe. ..."
"... Given currently unfolding events one is tempted to think that elites – perhaps rather than being left to respond to events completely out of their control – like a system-crashing spontaneous economic collapse – are collectively choosing to instead to – "control what they can" – through this supposed 'pandemic' response operation. ..."
"... That this over the top elite led pandemic response appears an effort to lead the credulous masses into whatever straightjacket has been prepared for us is simply impossible to ignore. ..."
Below is our list of twelve medical experts whose opinions on the Coronavirus outbreak contradict the official
narratives of the MSM, and the memes so prevalent on social media.
* * *
Dr
Sucharit Bhakdi
is a specialist in microbiology. He was a professor at the Johannes Gutenberg University
in Mainz and head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene and one of the most cited research scientists
in German history.
What he says:
We are afraid that 1 million infections with the new virus will lead to 30 deaths per day over the next 100 days.
But we do not realise that 20, 30, 40 or 100 patients positive for normal coronaviruses are already dying every
day.
[The government's anti-COVID19 measures] are grotesque, absurd and very dangerous [ ] The life expectancy
of millions is being shortened. The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless
people. The consequences on medical care are profound. Already services to patients in need are reduced,
operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling. All this will impact profoundly on our whole
society.
All these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide based on nothing but a spook.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/JBB9bA-gXL4
*
Dr
Wolfgang Wodarg
is a German physician specialising in Pulmonology, politician and former chairman of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. In 2009 he called for an inquiry into alleged conflicts of interest
surrounding the EU response to the Swine Flu pandemic.
What he says:
Politicians are being courted by scientists scientists who want to be important to get money for their
institutions. Scientists who just swim along in the mainstream and want their part of it [ ] And what is missing
right now is a rational way of looking at things.
We should be asking questions like "How did you find out this
virus was dangerous?", "How was it before?", "Didn't we have the same thing last year?", "Is it even something
new?"
That's missing.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/p_AyuhbnPOI
*
Dr Joel Kettner
s professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former
Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious
Diseases.
I have never seen anything like this, anything anywhere near like this. I'm not talking about the pandemic,
because I've seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we
don't always know what they are. But I've never seen this reaction, and I'm trying to understand why.
[ ]
I worry about the message to the public, about the fear of coming into contact with people, being in the same
space as people, shaking their hands, having meetings with people. I worry about many, many consequences related
to that.
[ ]
In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of
cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would
help to put things into perspective.
Dr John
Ioannidis
Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at
Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and
Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation
Center at Stanford (METRICS).
He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the
Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at
Tufts University School of Medicine.
As a physician, scientist and author he has made contributions to evidence-based medicine, epidemiology, data
science and clinical research. In addition, he pioneered the field of meta-research. He has shown that much of the
published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence.
Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes.
As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one
situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine
passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death
rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
[ ]
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people.
However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case
fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes.
[ ]
If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of
total deaths due to "influenza-like illness" would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually
noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.
– "A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without
reliable data",
Stat News
, 17th March 2020
*
Dr Yoram Lass
is an Israeli physician,
politician and former Director General of the Health Ministry. He also worked as Associate Dean of the Tel Aviv
University Medical School and during the 1980s presented the science-based television show Tatzpit.
Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European
country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far 40-50 people have died of the
coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington.
[ ]
In every country, more people die from regular flu compared with those who die from the coronavirus.
[ ]
there is a very good example that we all forget: the swine flu in 2009. That was a virus that reached the
world from Mexico and until today there is no vaccination against it. But what? At that time there was no Facebook
or there maybe was but it was still in its infancy. The coronavirus, in contrast, is a virus with public
relations.
Whoever thinks that governments end viruses is wrong.
– Interview in
Globes
, March 22nd 2020
*
Dr Pietro
Vernazza
is a Swiss physician specialising Infectious Diseases at the Cantonal Hospital St. Gallen and
Professor of Health Policy.
What he says:
We have reliable figures from Italy and a work by epidemiologists, which has been published in the renowned
science journal ‹Science›, which examined the spread in China. This makes it clear that around 85 percent of all
infections have occurred without anyone noticing the infection. 90 percent of the deceased patients are verifiably
over 70 years old, 50 percent over 80 years.
[ ]
In Italy, one in ten people diagnosed die, according to the findings of the
Science
publication, that
is statistically one of every 1,000 people infected. Each individual case is tragic, but often – similar to the
flu season – it affects people who are at the end of their lives.
[ ]
If we close the schools, we will prevent the children from quickly becoming immune.
[ ]
We should better integrate the scientific facts into the political decisions.
– Interview in
St. Galler Tagblatt
, 22nd March 2020
*
Frank Ulrich Montgomery
is German radiologist,
former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association.
I'm not a fan of lockdown. Anyone who imposes something like this must also say when and how to pick it up again.
Since we have to assume that the virus will be with us for a long time, I wonder when we will return to normal?
You can't keep schools and daycare centers closed until the end of the year. Because it will take at least that
long until we have a vaccine. Italy has imposed a lockdown and has the opposite effect. They quickly reached their
capacity limits, but did not slow down the virus spread within the lockdown.
– Interview in
General
Anzeiger
, 18th March 2020
*
Prof.
Hendrik Streeck
is a German HIV researcher, epidemiologist and clinical trialist. He is professor of
virology, and the director of the Institute of Virology and HIV Research, at Bonn University.
The new pathogen is not that dangerous, it is even less dangerous than Sars-1. The special thing is that
Sars-CoV-2 replicates in the upper throat area and is therefore much more infectious because the virus jumps from
throat to throat, so to speak. But that is also an advantage: Because Sars-1 replicates in the deep lungs, it is
not so infectious, but it definitely gets on the lungs, which makes it more dangerous.
[ ]
You also have to take into account that the Sars-CoV-2 deaths in Germany were exclusively old people. In
Heinsberg, for example, a 78-year-old man with previous illnesses died of heart failure, and that without Sars-2
lung involvement. Since he was infected, he naturally appears in the Covid 19 statistics. But the question is
whether he would not have died anyway, even without Sars-2.
– Interview in
Frankfurter Allgemeine
, 16th March 2020
*
Dr Yanis Roussel
et. al.
– A team of researchers from the Institut Hospitalo-universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille
and the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Marseille, conducting a
peer-reviewed study on Coronavirus mortality for the government of France under the 'Investments for the Future'
programme.
The problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year
compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.
[ ]
This study compared the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries (1.3%) with the mortality rate of common
coronaviruses identified in AP-HM patients (0.8%) from 1 January 2013 to 2 March 2020. Chi-squared test was
performed, and the P-value was 0.11 (not significant).
[ ]
it should be noted that systematic studies of other coronaviruses (but not yet for SARS-CoV-2) have found that
the percentage of asymptomatic carriers is equal to or even higher than the percentage of symptomatic patients.
The same data for SARS-CoV-2 may soon be available, which will further reduce the relative risk associated with
this specific pathology.
– "SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data",
International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents
, 19th March 2020
*
Dr. David
Katz
is an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center
I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near-total meltdown of
normal life -- schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned -- will be long-lasting and calamitous, possibly
graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses
never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be public health scourges of the
first order.
– "Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?",
New York Times
20th
March 2020
*
Michael T. Osterholm
is regents professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and
Policy at the University of Minnesota.
Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores,
theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed
and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with
countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold.
[ ]
[T]he best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work,
keep business and manufacturing operating, and "run" society, while at the same time advising higher-risk
individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as
aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the
financial structure on which our lives are based.
– "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure",
Washington Post
21st March 2020
*
Dr
Peter Goetzsche
is Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen
and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration. He has written several books on corruption in the field of
medicine and the power of big pharmaceutical companies.
Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get
in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they
should do.
No such draconian measures were applied during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and they obviously cannot
be applied every winter, which is all year round, as it is always winter somewhere. We cannot close down the whole
world permanently.
Should it turn out that the epidemic wanes before long, there will be a queue of people wanting to take credit
for this. And we can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time. But remember the joke
about tigers. "Why do you blow the horn?" "To keep the tigers away." "But there are no tigers here." "There you
see!"
– "Corona: an epidemic of mass panic", blog post on
Deadly Medicines
21st March 2020
Gary Wilson
,
What happened in Wuhan will eventually happen everywhere. Any new pathogen will rapidly spread in the
susceptible population (those with some degree of a compromised immune system). After a period there
will be no more susceptible people left to infect and the disease will disappear. Government
regulations to prevent the spread is of no use if someone infected with the pathogen can infect others
before they get the symptoms that they have the disease. Lots of money is spent fighting the virus
(there is money to be made!) while no money is spent to improve the immune system of those people with
weakened immune systems.
fred
,
Btw, the only major sporting event still going on right now is the
Chess Candidates Tournament
(which is a qualification for the World Championship) taking place in
Yekaterinburg, Russia. (Which has freezing temperatures right now and is covered in snow.)
Players get
a health check up twice daily, but are not tested for the coronavirus specifically. This means that if
any one of the players gets a cold or mild temperature: coronavirus!
Therefore I expect the tournament
to be halted mid-way any day now. (Also if one of the players feels like the tournament is not going
well, or that his preparation is not working, they might pretend to be sick to get the tournament
postponed.)
You may be well aware that the Australian Federal government is at loggerheads
with New South Wales and Victorian state governments over the issue of closing all schools.
The state
governments prefer that all schools be closed while Canberra is receiving advice from Dr Brendan
Murphy, Chief Health Officer of Australia, that schools not be closed because children would be at
more risk of picking up COVID-19 from adults at home, and from congregating in areas where they are
not being supervised by adults if they decide not to stay at home for various reasons (because among
other things they would also be at risk from domestic violence).
Please find at this link
an article which among other things gives the opinions of various medical
and health experts who oppose the closure of schools during the current lock-downs here in Australia.
An example of such advice from the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee:
The AHPPC met on Tuesday 17 March to consider the issue of school closures in relation to the
community transmission of COVID‑19. The Committee's advice is that pre-emptive closures are not
proportionate or effective as a public health intervention to prevent community transmission of
COVID-19 at this time Previous studies suggest that the potential reduction in community
transmission from pre‑emptive school closures may be offset by the care arrangements that are in
place for children who are not at school. Children may require care from older carers who are more
vulnerable to severe disease, or may continue to associate (and transmit infection) outside of
school settings. Broadly, the health evidence on school closures from previous respiratory
epidemics shows the costs are often underestimated and the benefits are overestimated. This may be
even more so in relation to COVID-19 as, unlike influenza, the impact on otherwise healthy children
has been minimal to date. School closure is associated with considerable costs. Studies have
estimated that around 15% of the total workforce and 30% of the healthcare workforce may need to
take time off work to care for children. This burden will be significant and will fall
disproportionately on those in casual or tenuous work circumstances. At this stage, the spread of
COVID-19 in the community is at quite low levels. It may be many months before the level of
Australian community infection is again as low as it is at the moment
More than 70 countries around the world have implemented either
nationwide or localised school closures, at different times in the evolution of the local COVID-19
epidemic, however it should be noted the majority of these have not been successful in controlling
the outbreak.
Some of these countries are now considering their position in relation to
re-opening schools. Singapore has had success in limiting the transmission of COVID-19 in the
community without closing schools" [however the successful period in Singapore coincided with
school holidays and when students returned they were temperature-tested ]
Antonym
,
This
cure is worse than the disease, true.
Governments made lock downs in haste, erring on the heavy handed side just to be "sure". Who can
prove them wrong afterwards? The voters.
Airplanes have been the worse spreaders.
Some religious preachers have shown to be immune to public self isolate calls in Asia.
Maybe a good Global practice run for when a
really
deadly
virus breaks loose?
Let East Asian and central African wildlife wet markets be forbidden and enforced with long jail
and financial sentences.
Virus Guy
,
Nonsense. It was not in haste or error. No government is going to hastily shut down its economy out
of too much tender concern for its citizens, and we have teams of analysts and advisors on
infectious disease working for governments who would never have advised this insane level of
'precautions ' for a moderate coronavirus showing no evidence of extreme infectivity or fatality.
As in China the reaction has anticipated a non-existent problem and then gone beyond any
accepted protocol to 'respond.' This has all the hallmarks of an entirely manufactured crisis.
Virus Guy
,
Please don't feel brainwashed into taking totally unnecessary extra precautions beyond normal
levels of hygiene in order to protect yourself from a common coronavirus.
Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported
results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was
only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The
multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75%
probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close
contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals'
reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.
Gary Weglarz
,
The behavior of elites across the globe suggest a level of collective anxiety not seen in before in my
lifetime. Certainly endless decades of oligarchic control maintained through keeping Western
populations mystified by means of coordinated mass propaganda – has seen rather significant cracks
develop through the emergence of progressive independent journalism shared across the world via the
web. One would think those ever widening cracks in the indoctrination system have perhaps clarified
for our betters that their fairy tales are falling upon ever greater numbers of deaf ears around the
globe.
Given currently unfolding events one is tempted to think that elites – perhaps rather than being
left to respond to events completely out of their control – like a system-crashing spontaneous
economic collapse – are collectively choosing to instead to – "control what they can" – through this
supposed 'pandemic' response operation.
That is to initiate a prefabricated "response" – proactively
to a projected impending system catastrophe that is only a matter of time. Or perhaps this is simply a
"testing operation," a "dry run" so to speak for when the uncontrollable event that crashes the system
does take place. A chance to gauge public reactions and further fine tune future response options?
That this over the top elite led pandemic response appears an effort to lead the credulous masses
into whatever straightjacket has been prepared for us is simply impossible to ignore.
Gary Weglarz
,
On the breathtaking clairvoyance of our wealthiest elites:
Slight uptick in overall registered deaths although still below average for this time of year.
But they've omitted the figures for deaths where the underlying cause was respiratory illness.
I can think of no legitimate reason why they would do so.
These are registered deaths, everybody knows they don't represent the true current number of
deaths.
There is no legitimate rationale for 'waiting for more accurate data' or any such excuse. Even if
the data is incomplete it's published. It's a registry of deaths not an adjusted death rate.
I really can't keep a sense of humour about this.
Or take any satisfaction from 'knowing better' or 'I told you so'. I thought what was happening now would be a process of years.
I don't expect sites like this will survive very long, regardless of how fringe or maligned they
are.
I'd like to say invest in printing presses.
But it's probably too late for that now.
The cat is slowly being let out of the bag Recently leaked (or unofficially released) Norwegian
government papers says the Corona measures are expected to be in place for 12 to 18 months, not just
for a few weeks. Presumably it will be the same in as good as every (NATO)-country.
The emergency
laws introduced in Norway are conspicuously similar to a highly unusual law proposal for increased
government powers in case of a civil emergency from September 2019, now they have been rushed through
parliament.
paul
,
Don't worry, folks, pandemics are profitable.
Bezos dumped $3 billion of stock just before the crash.
Makes Feinstein's paltry $6 million look like chump change.
Boeing want $60 billion, the airlines
want $50 billion (for starters), $150 billion for hotels, a trillion or so for shopping malls. A few
billion here, a few billion there, and pretty soon you're talking serious oney.
$3 trillion to date, but have patience, it's early days yet.
We can all rest easy.
The billionaires will emerge with their wealth more than doubled, just like last time.
Certainly puts my mind at rest.
Savorywill
,
We can rest easy because the government will just print more money. Plenty to go around! Every one
gets $3000 plus insurance covers their absent paychecks, so everything is back to normal, money
wise, and no one has to do anything. This can probably go on forever, until trucking companies also
go out of business, so no food or supplies can be transported into NYC, and then the shit will well
and truly hit the fan. I don't think AOC's green new deal will be of much use in such a situation
But, hopefully, it won't come to that.
xdream
,
Somewhere further down this thread somebody used the word:
Plandemic.
Could I suggest another variant on this theme a mutant perhaps:
AaronInMVD says: Website Show Comment March
24, 2020 at 12:01 am GMT 100 Words @Anon
For reasons of math and historic examples of how viral pandemics work in mammals, the fastest
way out would be to do nothing and ignore the virus so that it burns through quickly. This
happens with surprising frequency when the folks picking strain for the year's flu vaccine
guess wrong. And, no business is non-essential to the people depending on it for their
livelihood. So far Most people getting sick with the COVID-19 get unpleasantly sick or don't
realize they were sick. 99% of the fatalities are in the morbidly old or morbidly ill.
Now that the panic's been hyped up, there's no way out. For reasons of how democracy works,
the panic will be appeased. Expensively. Very Expensively.
More will suffer and experience pre-mature mortality due to the economic consequences of the
panic than than virus itself, because the economic damage here is going to last far longer.
I was reading an article in a specialist medical newspaper at the doctor's surgery this
morning while waiting to pick up my blood test results. The article was written by a doctor
who was part of an Australian medical delegation visiting China recently. Among other things
the doctor mentioned was that government services personnel had been redeployed into other
areas away from their usual ranges of expertise. He saw a woman giving instructions to
medical personnel on how to wear medical gowns. He assumed she herself was a doctor; she
turned out to be a receptionist.
" The second thing that's good about it is the sun. Ultraviolet light kills viruses."
The disease is spreading in the southern hemisphere which is in summer with much higher UV
just as rapidly as the northern hemisphere which is in winter with much less UV. So the data
at least in this case says no. BTW she retired in 2008, and she seems to have done some
impressive work in the past, though as they say in the small print of adverts for
investments, past performance is no predictor of future performance.
"Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any
other European country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far
40-50 people have died of the coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland,
Washington."
"The characteristics in every country are different. In Italy the median age of those
dying of the coronavirus is 81 and the population is very old and frail and smokes more and
among the dead are more men." - Professor Yoram Lass / https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-lockdown-lunacy-1001322696
European Journal of Clinical Investigation
"Coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and
non‐evidence‐based measure
John P.A. Ioannidis
First published: 19 March 2020
Early reported CFR figures seem exaggerated.
The most widely quoted CFR has been 3.4%, reported by WHO dividing the number of deaths by
documented cases in early March.
This ignores undetected infections and the strong age-dependence of CFR. The most complete
data come from Diamond Princess passengers, with CFR=1% observed in an elderly cohort; thus,
CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population; probably higher than seasonal flu
(CFR=0.1%), but not much so.
Observed crude CFR in South Korea and in Germany, , the countries with most extensive
testing, is 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively as of March 14 and crude CFR in Scandinavian
countries is about 0.1%. Some deaths of infected, seriously ill people will occur later, and
these deaths have not been counted yet. However even in these countries many infections
probably remain undiagnosed. Therefore, CFR may be even lower rather than higher than these
crude estimate
I posted this before but it bears posting again. A 2016 Johns Hopkins study concluded that
250,000 Americans die annually from medical negligence. And that's just mortality; imagine
the morbidity.
Long waits for short appointments. Protective, sanctimonious medical front offices. A
lifetime of frustrating, humiliating, frightening fighting for access. If a presidential
candidate made a promise to double the number of physicians, starting right now, he would be
elected in a landslide. Sure, it would take seven years before this kicked in. But start
right now. For this coming fall semester, the medical schools need only to have more
seats.
As long as I am talking about laws that nearly everyone would support .about those leaf
blowers
We know from the Diamond Princess and now the Costa Luminosa that SARS-CoV-2 is not
extremely contagious.
17% of the people on the DP were infected, half without symptoms (perhaps even false
positives -- the jury is out). 52 from 3711 (1.4 %) became critically ill or died.
On the CL 74 (known to be an overcount, in a shared cabin both were counted as critical)
from 1471 (5% or less) became critically ill or died according to current information.
So, in cases of 100% population exposure, or as close as it will be in this world we see 1
to 5% critically ill (assuming a consistent definition of critically ill).
They could easily be lost in the everyday winter flu statistics in the US. The deaths from
vaping are a key clue.
@Philip Owen"not
extremely contagious" -- You are making a wrong conclusion. Passengers on Diamond
Princess were isolated in their cabins. Passengers who tested positive were taken out of the
ship to military hospital in Japan. Diamond Princess was not a peri dish! The epidemic was
arrested there and stopped.
" passengers who tested positive [ ] have been transferred to hospitals "
"For those left on board, there is nothing to do but sit in their cabins, wait for meals
to be delivered, watch television or choose from a limited selection of movies on demand.
Those lucky enough to have a balcony can at least sit in the sun, look at the ocean and
talk to their neighbors."
After 9-11, the Feds surveyed hospitals to determine if they were prepared to handle extreme
emergencies where they couldn't handle the patient load and were forced to triage and delay
treatments. They learned that most hospitals were already overwhelmed every Friday and
Saturday night, and many were unable to handle the demand every night. So the photos, videos,
and reports of packed emergency rooms and hospitals unable to properly handle COVID-19 cases
is normal.
As of March 7th, the flu has killed 39 people while news reports that one died from the
COVID-19 virus. The Type A flu killed 28, or 28 times more than the COVID-19 virus. Updated
stats should appear this week, but the media reported a second death from COVID-19 in Las
Vegas, with no mention of the others killed by Type A flu. I expect COVID-19 deaths to rise
quickly, but will be surprised if they exceed the Type A flu deaths.
@AaronInMVDYes, being sick sucks. Just would many of these people who are sick and suffering have
gone to the hospital if it wasn't for the damned panic.
In Italy the hospitals are completely overwhelmed and it has nothing to do with panic.
They are doing military triaging and medical workers are about to collapse. They have more
hospital beds per capita than the US so we definitely don't want to end up like them.
In the US there are probably people showing up at hospitals for tests but that is the
fault of the government (including Democrats) for not getting enough tests ready. Even today
there aren't enough tests and it is unlikely they will meet demand within weeks if not
months.
Democrats are blaming Trump but they were the ones calling travel bans racist and they
didn't have anything to say about tests when it was starting to spread two months ago. They
were focused on the primary and getting rid of Bernie.
'' want it or not the rest of the population is gonna get the Coronavirus''...wow !!! you
are are sooo sure about it ...i bet you know thinks that we don't , probably you knew this
since last year
Very informative .. Thank you and I agree almost totally.. only thing that I find is an
error is immunity to virus. Immunity will be there with young and active people. The virus
can still be transmitted. Older generation will continue to be susceptible to the virus
unless we have a medicine for corona virus.
FFS can we stop with the endless debate about who did what to whom in the early days of this
virus' existence?
Not only are such debates entirely pointless because it is out among us now, it is pointless
because whether they want it or not a full investigation including non-fiction backtrace is
inevitable if we the people who look past the lies, play our cards right.
It has been said that like 911 the coronavirus pandemic will be a game-changer, that is
the world will be different after the lockdowns, lies and beat ups than it was before.
There is however one major difference. Most humans were busy working and looking to keep
their families going to do more than lap up what network TV & the fishwraps told them
about 911. The far from reality attitudes too many still hold, date from that intensive
tabloid indoctrination.
This time is pretty much opposite, people are stuck at home with too much time to think,
but not enough they believe they can do.
If ever there was a time when it was possible to assist our fellow humans to see the world
as it is rather than how the media tells them it is, that time is right now.
Many humans are already pissed about this; plans they had made for their 2020 are
kyboshed, no one really trusts politicians anymore so everyone is asking themselves if
this enforced income cut is really as essential as the pols claim it is(sure some nations
have trickled a little down for the durationbut even there no one is gonna be better off,
everyone normal is going to be copping an income cut).
That means most people are going to be somewhat resistant to the usual bland pol
platitudes.
Have no fear the neolibs see the danger and will be pumping out the bulldust 24/7, the
difference this time is Jo/Joe Blow finally has the time to consider other points of view,
especially those which are expressed entertainingly rather than didactically, so WTF are
people wasting time and energy arguing the toss about matters of interest to so few other
humans?
I'm germinating a notion of what I am going to try to combat the tosh being pumped out by
the elite it would be great if other humans considered the same as I'm certain most will come
up with far better means to help others see than what I dream up.
Allen , Mar 24 2020 1:29 utc | 127
(Coronavirus is a fake emergency))
I've also pondered the question of whether the 'cure' is worse than the 'disease' in
net/overall effect. However, it's important to remember that the reason the pandemic has been
declared an emergency IN EVERY COUNTRY, whether Commie or Fake Democracy, is that it's making
people sick enough to require hospital treatment. And these patients are ADDITIONAL patients
which the health system hadn't planned for. When the flood of COVID-19 patients eases, then
hospitals will return to normal levels of bed vacancy - nationwide.
For your preferred theory to be true, it would be necessary to prove that many, or most, of
these extra patients are faking the seriousness of their illness AND the medics are too
uneducated/inexperienced to tell the difference. You'd probably also have to prove that there
are lots of people would rather be in hospital, pretending to be sick, than anywhere but
hospital...
Italy had an excess number of deaths attributed to influenza of 25,000 in the
2016/17 season, the last year numbers are available, what we are seeing at present is not an
aberration from recent years as that 16/17 season was representative of recent trends. This
is directly as a result of the severely degraded environment in which they live. As
others have pointed out both the air and water quality in that region is horrendous- as it
has become in recent years in Wuhan, Madrid and Tehran. One has to be beyond obstinate not to
understand this and connect the dots.
At present there is great uncertainty as to deaths from Covid versus deaths
with Covid. In some reporting Covid deaths were identified using a case definition
that included pulmonary disease e.g
This distinction is crucial as it points to causal factors that allowed the virus to
replicate, to flourish- and disputes the narrative that the corona virus (which BTW is
decidedly not novel only this mutation is which brings us to another discussion) is the
causal factor. The causal factors are the specific modes of production that created
horrendous living conditions in these areas to begin with (most of the planet by now) which
have destroyed people's abilities (immune system e.g.) to ward off disease.
By focusing solely on the corona virus and considering it to be the causal factor this
allows the capitalist class off the hook for being the very ones who have created the
conditions for all sorts of diseases to proliferate. Further by keeping the focus solely on
corona history tells us that the capitalists will not only use this for any draconian
measures they deem "essential" but also a means to explore all manner of profiteering- the
"next magic cure" (for the disease they created) being the most obvious pot of gold.
If you want to pursue a more analytical line of inquiry start by examining the severely
degraded air quality in Madrid, Wuhan, Tehran and the Po River Valley and the accompanying
health problems in those areas and start connecting some dots.
In the flu season 2015/2016, Italy reported 20,259 deaths attributable to influenza (just as
now, these were almost all in the 65+ age group). (Source: Journal of Infectious
Diseases)...and nobody proposed shutting down the world then. If it's now being suggested the
virus has been around since November then the numbers don't add up even more (i.e. Italy's
Covid-19 deaths so far are around the 6,000 mark which would make the virus far less deadly
than the 2015/16 flu).
Is there not an argument to be made (as says John P.A. Ioannidis -- professor of medicine
and professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University) that we are
destroying economies and lives (and possibly killing far more people than Covid-19) in an
hysterical over-reaction based on flawed modelling and sparse and unreliable data?...
"The number of idiots everywhere on the Internet proclaiming the following:
1) The virus won't prove to be any more dangerous than ordinary flu..."
Yeah sure, we should have just shut up and believed...
Russia interfered in the election
Russia invaded Crimea
Russia invaded Georgia
Iran is making nuclear bombs
The Skripals were poisoned by Russian agents
Assad is using chemical weapons
Saddam has weapons of mass destruction
"etc, etc., ad nauseum.
I could go on and on. The number of people who just *have to have an opinion* is staggering.
And they'll argue that they're right until the cows come home."
@99 Michael Weddington
"The virus deniers here remind me of the global warming deniers."
Why not holocaust deniers? In fact, since you didn't say holocaust deniers you must be an
antisemite holocaust denier nazi, right? It's not like you two are at CNN's website, you're
in the alternative media, where we actually questions things instead of just having blind
faith.
Talking to my daughter this morning. Husband and wife returns from overseas. No testing an
quarantine for people coming . They go home do whatever, husband feels a bit crook, tests
positive for coronavirus. Hospitalized, on a ventilated and will soon die. She is at a
private hospital and this is at the public hospital. no medical staff working with this
patient wore protective gear.
I had thought we where following China closely on dealing with this but man was I wrong.
Total fuckwits collecting seashells on the seashore as the tsunami approaches.
Sent my daughter links to the pdf handbook put out by the Chinese doctors who worked on the
frontlines. Covers PPE and much else. She is now passing it around to the other nurses.
Doctors in Australia had started using chloroquine if they could not obtain other antivirals.
Apparently the government has now stopped them from doing this.
"... Instead the French authorities are now trying to prepare people for work by saying that people should not go out at all because when they do they touch the left button, the doors etc. ..."
"... They can just wear gloves and clean up whatever they touch with alcohol, no? Why aren't such cheap things not distributed widely, household by household? ..."
Another interesting feature of the shock strategy currently applied is that until planes and
trains and stadiums were not plugged off, one can imagine that the virus was spreading on a
much bigger scale than without these going on as usual.
So why should people who already see a max of 5 persons a week (close enough) be under
house arrest? masks are evidently a solution.
Instead the French authorities are now trying to prepare people for work by saying that
people should not go out at all because when they do they touch the left button, the doors
etc.
But what of asking people for responsibility?
They can just wear gloves and clean up
whatever they touch with alcohol, no? Why aren't such cheap things not distributed widely,
household by household?
The French are doing worse because they have no community planning, unlike Belgium, the
Netherlands, the UK and other northern countries. I haven't heard anyone on French media say
that the municipalities or district social centres could play a role in better mapping the
needs.
It seems to be entirely on the shoulders of our super-centralized gov and the
hospitals! With the results we see (and we are actually doing not so bad: 5 % of the positive
seem to die, vs 10% in Spain and Italy -using the figures given here
There's growing concern among health officials about so called silent spreaders, people who
are infected with the coronavirus, but aren't sick. Now some UK doctors say there may be a clue
to who's carrying it and they want the loss of smell and taste added to the list of
symptoms.
A mother who was infected with the coronavirus couldn't smell her baby's full diaper.
Cooks who can usually name every spice in a restaurant dish can't smell curry or garlic, and
food tastes bland. Others say they can't pick up the sweet scent of shampoo or the foul odor
of kitty litter.
Anosmia, the loss of sense of smell, and ageusia, an accompanying diminished sense of
taste, have emerged as peculiar telltale signs of Covid-19, the disease caused by the
coronavirus, and possible markers of infection.
On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the
world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days,
even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease's spread. The published data is
limited, but doctors are concerned enough to raise warnings.
// ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"... This is specifically about coronavirus testing. In fact, CDC very much screwed up -- its test had a contaminated assay, the negative control, which made it unusable. ..."
By CNN's count, at least 13 states and 13 municipalities in the US have ordered 144,522,931
people to stay home as a result of the pandemic, according to data compiled by CNN using US
Census population estimates.
Update (1324ET): President Trump on Tuesday once again tried to
deny that his administration dropped the ball on the coronavirus response, while saying he
would like to see the country re-open by Easter.
Of course, the CDC's botched handling of the tests has been well-documented, and the fact
that nobody in the administration acting to overule the CDC and start stockpiling tests from
elsewhere might be remembered as one of the administration's biggest screwups in handling the
crisis.
Trump: "We did not screw up."
This is specifically about coronavirus testing. In fact, CDC very much screwed up --
its test had a contaminated assay, the negative control, which made it unusable.
World Health Organization offered us test it had been using in China.
"... "We showed that it was precisely the patients with the most acute symptoms who are the most infectious, both because of the high viral load [meaning, the amount of a virus in one's body] and also because of the increase in the number of encounters between people: The acute patients were dying, so everyone came to take their leave from them," Yamin says. "I was pleased that Liberia adopted our recommendations and isolated those who were seriously ill. In retrospect, we know that that new policy helped curb the epidemic." ..."
"... the coronavirus can be expected to disappear from this region with the same dizzying speed with which it entered our lives ..."
"... But in practice, the most rapid mutations occur in animals, and they only infect us then, and obviously it's less probable that we will be infected again by a bat in the near future. ..."
"... "The actual number of people who are sick with the virus in South Korea is at least double what's being reported, so the chance of dying is at least twice as low, standing at about 0.45 percent – very far from the World Health Organization's [global mortality] figure of 3.4 percent. And that's already a reason for cautious optimism." ..."
"... "And Netanyahu talked about a mortality rate of between 2 percent and 4 percent. And do you know what's most absurd? That in the final analysis [U.S. President Donald] Trump was right . Not that the coronavirus is just plain flu – it absolutely isn't – but as he put it: 'This is just my hunch – way under 1 percent' [will die].' ..."
"... At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable. I have no criticism of the decisions made until now. On the contrary: With such a large area of uncertainty, Israel's decision makers are considering not only a reasonable scenario but also a margin of safety. ..."
"... "It's not only a function of hygiene, it's mainly a function of contact between people. Picture the average old person. How many different people does he encounter in a day? And what is the nature of those encounters? The older we get, the less we caress and kiss others. Also, children constitute the only age group that comes into contact with all other age groups – not just theirs. That's why it is the key population in spreading respiratory diseases." ..."
Dr. Yamin is an engineer, not a physician. But in 2008, when he was a graduate student at Ben-Gurion University in Be'er Sheva,
a certain research study caught his eye.
"It was an analysis of a dynamic model for the spread of smallpox," Yamin, 38, says. "The researchers used tools from game theory.
It was so interesting that I decided to conduct a similar study on influenza – which turned into a doctoral thesis on disease-spread
models.
"If, 40 or 50 years ago, epidemiology researchers came exclusively from the field of medicine, today we understand that in order
to predict the spread of diseases, it's also necessary to understand how humans behave as a collective, to be able to analyze big
data and to have the ability to create models and perform mathematical simulations – and for that you need engineers."
Yamin encountered his first real epidemiological crisis while doing postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease
Modeling and Analysis at Yale University's school of public health.
"At Yale we worked for three weeks, with almost no sleep, to create models based on engineering tools for the spread of Ebola.
The dilemma of the Liberian health ministry regarded whom to prioritize, given a serious shortage of isolation facilities. The Liberians
assumed that it would make more sense to quarantine those who were ill with less serious symptoms, because the others could not be
saved in any case.
"We showed that it was precisely the patients with the most acute symptoms who are the most infectious, both because of the high
viral load [meaning, the amount of a virus in one's body] and also because of the increase in the number of encounters between people:
The acute patients were dying, so everyone came to take their leave from them," Yamin says. "I was pleased that Liberia adopted our
recommendations and isolated those who were seriously ill. In retrospect, we know that that new policy helped curb the epidemic."
Yamin currently heads the Laboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis in TAU's engineering faculty. His primary field of work
is development of models for the spread of infectious diseases, with an emphasis on viruses responsible for respiratory ailments,
such as flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), which causes bronchitis. He is actually somewhat optimistic about the models he
has developed for the
spread of the coronavirus , which is also a respiratory disease.
"The big, open question is what the chance is of dying from the virus," Yamin explains.
"When you ask epidemiologists what the most important datum is concerning a virus, they will say it's the rate of the basic reproductive
ratio, or R0 [often called "R nought"] – the average number of people a sick person will infect. That's an interesting question,
but a theoretical one.
"The R0 of measles is 12, meaning that each person who is ill with measles infects 12 people on average. However, only 5 percent
of the population can actually be infected, because most of us have been immunized or had measles in the past. So that is the upper
limit of its spread."
But we know that the R0 of the coronavirus is 2, and we still don't know whether anyone is naturally immune to the disease.
Yamin: "The overwhelming majority of people are apparently not immune, because it's not a common disease. After all, there is
no precedent for such an infectious and violent type of virus from the corona family, so it's safe to assume that the majority has
not been exposed to the virus before this and that they can be infected. However, that's not to say that the majority of the population
will actually contract the disease.
"The basic principle is that a virus with an R0 of 2 in a non-immune population can be expected to infect 50 percent of the population.
After that the R0 will reach a value of 1 or less, and the disease will be contained. By the way, it will recede in a converging
exponential; in other words, the coronavirus can be expected to disappear from this region with the same dizzying speed with which
it entered our lives."
But we don't know for certain whether a person can be infected twice.
"No, but with the majority of viruses, if you're infected and you have recovered, you won't be re-infected, because of immunological
memory. And if you are infected again, the symptoms will be less acute the second time. The exception to the rule is influenza: Its
mutation frequency is so high that you can be infected by it year after year. Last year alone, the flu underwent 17 mutations. Whereas
the last time we heard about corona was 17 years ago, with SARS. In other words, the coronavirus did not undergo mutations at the
same frequency as the flu. Of course, the mutations themselves are a function of the number of infections: The more infections there
are, the greater the likelihood that mutations will occur. But in practice, the most rapid mutations occur in animals, and they only
infect us then, and obviously it's less probable that we will be infected again by a bat in the near future.
"By the way, viral mutations are more frequent in bats, whose immune system is astonishingly weak, while their social network
is extensive and characterized by a lot of interaction."
So we're talking about maximum rate of infection – that is, of becoming a carrier – of 50 percent. That's still a lot of patients,
a lot of hospitalizations and mainly a lot of deaths.
"Again, the most interesting issue for decision makers is the mortality rate. When we look at the dry data, we see a very high
mortality rate, of 4 to 7 percent, in countries like
Italy
and Spain, alongside far lower numbers in countries like Germany and South Korea.
"And then there's China, though it's very difficult to believe the numbers coming out of there – and in any event no country in
the West can allow itself to adopt the measures that China adopted to contain the spread. Now ask yourself: How do you check the
mortality rate in all those countries? You take the total number of deaths and divide it by the total of reported patients."
So the research is biased.
"Very biased. If I can only carry out few tests, I will test those who have the highest chance of becoming ill, and then, when
I check the mortality rate among them, I will get very high numbers. But there is one country we can learn from: South Korea. South
Korea has been coping with corona for a long time, more than most Western countries, and they lead in the number of tests per capita.
Therefore, the official mortality rate there is 0.9 percent. But even in South Korea, not all the infected were tested – most have
very mild symptoms.
"The actual number of people who are sick with the virus in South Korea is at least double what's being reported, so the chance
of dying is at least twice as low, standing at about 0.45 percent – very far from the World Health Organization's [global mortality]
figure of 3.4 percent. And that's already a reason for cautious optimism."
'Worst-case scenario'
Let's move from percents to people.
"Just a minute. Although we're both Westernized countries, we are absolutely not South Korea. South Korea has one of the highest
proportions of elderly people in the world, whereas Israel tops the graph in fertility, and we have a very young population. So,
if we use the upper limit [of mortality] of South Korea and normalize the mortality rate for the population in Israel, we are talking
about the probability of a mortality rate of 0.3 percent among those who have been infected.
"Now we'll go to a severe scenario in which no one is immune and every second person is sick, so that the disease is incapable
of spreading further – namely, a situation where there's a maximum infection rate of 50 percent.
"We are a country of nine million citizens. So in the worst-case scenario, we are talking about 4.5 million Israelis who will
become ill with the coronavirus. Multiply 4.5 million by 0.3 percent and you get 13,500 Israelis who are liable to die from the disease.
By comparison, 700 to 2,500 Israelis die every year of complications from other respiratory ailments."
But German Chancellor Angela Merkel talked about a rate of infection of 70 percent in Germany.
"And Netanyahu talked about a mortality rate of between 2 percent and 4 percent. And do you know what's most absurd? That in the
final analysis [U.S. President Donald]
Trump was right . Not that the coronavirus is just plain flu – it absolutely isn't – but as he put it: 'This is just my hunch
– way under 1 percent' [will die].'
"We must be cautious, of course, but at the moment a high probability is emerging that the risks are far lower than what the World
Health Organization presented. Under two assumptions – that the health system doesn't collapse and that life continues as usual –
we are not likely to see more than 13,500 victims of the coronavirus in Israel." (About 45,000 people die in Israel in a normal year,
which would make for a rise of approximately one-third.)
But, social distancing should lead to fewer cases of infection and death, no?
"No, because we won't be able to isolate ourselves completely or forever. At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine,
and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable. I have no criticism of the decisions made
until now. On the contrary: With such a large area of uncertainty, Israel's decision makers are considering not only a reasonable
scenario but also a margin of safety.
"In my opinion, the Health Ministry deserves tremendous credit for being ahead of the world by having instituted so few measures.
In the same breath, the public needs to understand that these measures of social distancing mean that we will find ourselves with
corona for a longer period, even to 2023."
A quarantine ward being set up at Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan. Tomer Appelbaum
That long?
"Take the swine flu, from 2009. Reliable models show clearly that it was contained in Israel because its appearance coincided
with the Jewish holidays in the fall [when people weren't out much in public]. From the virus' point of view, the timing wasn't good
for it in Israel. By contrast, in the United States there was significant infection in 2009-2010. But in the end, it balances out.
So we saw swine flu in Israel both in 2009-10 and in 2010-11, whereas in the United States it just came and went. The American population
as a whole was exposed to the virus at high rates, so those who fell ill and recovered served as a 'human shield' for those who did
not get sick."
So what you're saying is to tear the bandage off in one fell swoop, and explose everyone at once, the way they tried to do
in Britain.
"We need to make decisions based on the most precise models possible. What should be done? Of course, we must significantly increase
testing, using the rapid PCR test, and that is what is actually being done. In parallel, serologic tests should be conducted. These
differ from regular tests in that they examines an individual's immunological reaction to exposure. That's the only way we will be
able to get an accurate picture of the distribution of the virus in Israel, and thereby also of the mortality rates."
What will that test be able to tell us?
"It will solve the riddle of the young people: It's still not clear whether young people are infected by the coronavirus but don't
develop symptoms, or are simply immune and thus don't become infected. This is different from most respiratory ailments. With those
illnesses, like RSV or flu, this is a key population: The 5-to-19 age group is not at risk but they are responsible for infecting
others."
Because children don't wash their hands, and they drool on themselves?
"It's not only a function of hygiene, it's mainly a function of contact between people. Picture the average old person. How many
different people does he encounter in a day? And what is the nature of those encounters? The older we get, the less we caress and
kiss others. Also, children constitute the only age group that comes into contact with all other age groups – not just theirs. That's
why it is the key population in spreading respiratory diseases."
"... A drug like chloroquine doesn't have to be extremely effective in order to have a huge benefit on our ICU density. A small effect could have a big impact. And if chloroquine turns out not to work, there are other promising drugs such as Remdesivir, though chloroquine has the advantage of being cheap and easy to produce. ..."
Rod, I was one of those screaming at our public officials to shut stuff down. I was
extremely frustrated by President Trump's brushing off of our problem for a long time. I
asked my Facebook friends if anyone wanted to help with a recall petition of Governor
Edwards, after he took very mild steps against COVID-19 instead of the necessary firmer ones.
I bristled with a mixture of horror and astonishment as New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell
allowed bars to pack people in last weekend to celebrate St. Patrick's Day. I argued with
friends on Facebook who insisted to me that "this is just a cold" and told me that I was
irrational and needlessly spreading fear and panic.
So I have consistently supported strong steps to contain this virus, but I have now become
very optimistic that the tide is about to turn, and I want to share why.
Testing is about to expand exponentially.
We've been steadily growing
our testing ability since the outbreak began. America tested 44,176 people today, and
every day sees a big increase. Yesterday, we tested 34,654 and it was 27,372 the day before
that. A week ago, it was 4,124.
But these increases are small compared to what's in the pipeline. This week we saw FDA
approval of new testing systems from
Roche and from
Abbott labs that run tests ten times faster than current methods. To give you an idea of
what this means, Roche brags that their Cobas 8800 machine can process over 3000 tests per
day. Until today, Louisiana hadn't had a total of 3000 people tested. Roche is now making and
shipping 400,000 test kits per week in the US, while Abbott is making a million of their test
kits each week. Those systems will be coming online this coming week.
Today, we got even more good news, with
Cepheid getting FDA approval for their new test, which will detect the virus in 45
minutes and can be used in over 5000 Cepheid machines already in US hospitals. This will
allow hospitals to test all their staff and every incoming patient on a consistent basis, so
that we can keep our doctors and nurses safe and our hospitals don't spread the disease.
Those testing kits are getting shipped out this coming week.
And there are more companies in the process of getting approval. In two weeks, we should
be able to test 150,000 – 200,000 Americans daily, and that means that we don't all
need to stay home anymore.
Let me explain how this works.
Suppose that Boudreaux, who works for the state of Louisiana, wakes up and has a fever.
Right now, it's not easy for him to get tested – and if he could get tested, he
wouldn't get his results for days. Let's say that Boudreaux is a good citizen and stays home
at this point. That's great, except that Boudreaux went to work yesterday and exposed his
coworker Pierre, and he also got his hair cut and exposed his barber, T-Boy. His wife Marie
doesn't isolate from him, because she thinks that Boudreaux is just lazy and doesn't want to
work, so she is also exposed. Unless Boudreaux gets sick enough that he needs to go to the
hospital, he's not going to be tested, and Pierre, T-Boy, and Marie might all get the virus
and – and this is key – then spread it themselves.
That's been our situation, and the only solution that we've had was to keep Boudreaux at
home in the first place. That's why the state is keeping non-essential workers at home.
That's why many places are forcing barbershops to close. So, now, our governmental
restrictions keep T-Boy and Pierre from getting infected, though Marie is still at risk.
Now, imagine our original situation with easy, high-speed testing. Boudreaux wakes up with
a fever, he goes to the drive-thru testing site and is notified about four hours later that
he is positive. Now, everyone in his family and workplace immediately gets tested, as does
T-Boy – and the virus does not spread beyond them.
The ability to test everyone who needs to be tested is how South Korea and Singapore have
been able to control their outbreaks without significant societal restrictions. Their
schools, restaurants, etc. are all open. And their economies are not wrecked. Again, we'll be
at that point in less than two weeks.
Evidence strongly suggests that COVID-19 is seasonal.
A recent Chinese study
compared transmission rates for all 100 Chinese cities outside of Wuhan that had at least 40
cases before their national lockdown, to see if the virus spread more slowly in warmer, more
humid parts of China. Their conclusion:
"High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of
COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of
cities This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity
significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer
and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the
COVID-19."
That study, as an example, predicted a R value of 1.3 in Tokyo for the Olympics -- with
zero intervention! (For those of you who don't know what that means, it means that instead of
spreading the disease to about 2.6 people, which is what happens now, the average person
would only infect half as many people.) If this study were correct, it would mean that, with
some control measures, it would be easy to keep COVID-19 from spreading during the
Olympics.
Besides this study, we have the basic observation that the world's serious outbreaks have
occurred in cold, dry weather. Jakarta and Milan both had nonstop flights to Wuhan during
Wuhan's outbreak, but Italy has suffered a horrific crisis and Indonesia has not. Scientists
believe that this is because COVID-19 is mainly
transmitted by coughing , and the microdroplets emitted when someone coughs travel about
twice as far in cold, dry air. Additionally, the water vapor present in humid air interacts
with those microdroplets to stop them.
If COVID-19 is indeed a seasonal disease, then we should be able to almost eliminate it
this summer, to the point that there will be zero restrictions on ordinary life. Sports
leagues can fill stadiums with fans and political conventions can meet, and we won't have to
worry that we're fanning a new outbreak.
Improved treatment will improve COVID-19 patient outcomes.
If you have watched President Trump on TV or follow him on twitter, then you know that
he
is hopeful about the promise of chloroquine (and its close relative
hydroxychloroquine).
President Trump has perhaps overpromised what chloroquine can do, as the evidence of its
benefit is still rather thin. But, if it has any benefit at all, it's a game-changer in terms
of our ICUs. If chloroquine works, it works by lowering the amount of virus in the body. When
you combine this with earlier testing, there's a tremendous advantage. The people who end up
in the ICU don't get there until they've been sick for a week or so, as the virus grows in
their body and then inflames the alveoli in the lungs, leading to shortness of breath. If
chloroquine works, an at-risk patient would be given it right after testing positive, and
hopefully, the viral load in their body never gets high enough for the patient to develop
severe shortness of breath, and he stays out of the ICU.
A drug like chloroquine doesn't have to be extremely effective in order to have a huge
benefit on our ICU density. A small effect could have a big impact. And if chloroquine turns
out not to work, there are other promising drugs such as Remdesivir, though chloroquine has
the advantage of being cheap and easy to produce.
Is the situation going to get worse in the US? Yes. Is the end in sight? I believe that it
is. I write this to encourage each of you to hold on. If we can stay and home, enduring the
claustrophobia, the family bickering, and the often severe economic consequences, we can beat
this virus.
I miss my church. A streamed service tomorrow is not a true substitute for the
togetherness in Christ that I need more than ever at this time. And my business is suffering.
I think that I can make it another month, but I don't know about longer than that. I expect
that our nation's psychiatrists and therapists are swamped right now, as stress and
depression skyrocket.
I think b has not been very good with this corona virus reporting. He thinks he was wrong on
his initial reporting and changed as new facts emerged. however he basically repeats the
mainstream line. I certainly am no expert, But then again it seems thee is a wide divergence
of views from the "experts" but there is a mainstream conclusion which b agrees with. And the
mainstream media is pushing the fear full stop.
I still think this is not a specially dangerous virus. almost entirely it is old people
dying. almost entirely most of them have pre-existing conditions. My initial take was people
who would die fairly soon or might die if they got a bad flu are dying but sooner. I know my
wife went to the hospital and acquired a very bad pneumonia. She was on a respirator for over
a week and afterwards was diagnosed with COPD. How many of these deaths are people who are
sick with corona virus and go to the hospital and get a hospital acquired infection but are
counted as dying from COV-18? Virologist have been heavily researching corona viruses since
the SARS and MERS outbreaks that didn't kill very many people
I do agree that this virus seems exceptionally communicable. That nature article b cited
seemed as if it was written to dismiss the idea that the virus was made in some biolab. I
have read an article debunking this Nature article - the writer was trying to make a case
that it came from a Chinese lab He agreed it wasn't manufactured by gene editing but was
created by passing a corona virus through ferrets who do have the same ACE receptor that
humans have and COV-19 uses to infect cells.
Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research ...
the announcement by Ralph Baric and co-workers at the University of North Carolina that
they had created a chimeric SARS-like virus, which expresses the spike (attachment protein)
of a bat coronavirus in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone (4). As in the cases of the
genetically modified H5N1 avian influenza viruses, the newly generated SARS-like virus is
potentially an extremely dangerous, possibly pandemic pathogen... That was 5 years ago.
I agree with the uselessness of bioweapons as a military operation. The economic blowback
we are now seeing is proof
But But what if this global crisis is exactly what those who want to totally control us
would want to happen. It is precipitating the roll out of medical martial law.
There are laws on the books that give extraordinary powers in the event of a global
epidemic or even a pandemic.
Not to mention in the US the Continuity of Government provisions strengthened massively
after 9/11. Every year the state of emergency triggered by 9/11 has been renewed. Mandatory
vaccinations for everyone. Quarantine powers granted The initiation of martial law. Now you
don't have to be a terrorist but just said to be infected and away you go.
I don't think COV-19 is the one to justify the full implementation but it is another giant
step for setting up the population for the full implementation.
US authorities are working to combat the spread of misinformation that has blossomed since the start of the coronavirus
pandemic
The US
Department of Justice announced Sunday it had shut down a website claiming to sell a
coronavirus vaccine, in its first act of federal enforcement against fraud in connection with
the pandemic.
Lawsuits had been filed against the site coronavirusmedicalkit.com, which claimed to sell
vaccines for COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, when in fact there is no
such vaccine, the Justice Department said in a statement.
A Texas federal judge on Saturday ordered the site to shut down, according to the statement.
Its homepage, however, was still accessible as of Sunday evening.
"Due to the recent outbreak for the Coronavirus (COVID-19) the World Health Organization is
giving away vaccine kits. Just pay $4.95 for shipping," read a statement on the homepage.
It was followed by a place to leave bank account information to pay shipping fees.
The Justice Department did not specify how many people fell victim to the scam, but the
investigation is ongoing to identify who is behind the fraud and how much money was stolen.
The intervention by the federal judiciary system is part of ongoing efforts by US
authorities to combat the spread of misinformation that has blossomed since the start of the
pandemic.
Attorney General Bill Barr last week urged federal prosecutors to make stopping
misinformation a priority and called US civilians to report all such abuses to the National
Center for Disaster Fraud.
He also warned citizens against a variety of scams including selling fake treatments online,
imitating emails from the WHO or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) intended
to collect personal data, and asking for donations for imaginary organizations.
Simultaneously, the US judicial system is on the warpath to combat price gouging of products
such as hand sanitizer or hygienic masks.
More than 33,000 people have been infected by the coronavirus in the US, and 416 have died,
according to a tracker managed by Johns Hopkins University.
@prime
noticer What if–as seems to be happening in Italy–the journalists simply
pretend that bodies are piling up, perhaps by attributing other deaths to Corona?
Beware: whenever these people decide on a narrative, they are loath to back down once they
are proven wrong. They don't want to lose face.
There is a bit more encouraging news tonight. the numbers for Italy have come down just a
little bit more. Restrictions on the other hand have got even tighter, now only people who do
essential work are allowed out of their homes.
As I mentioned yesterday in a post that got swallowed by the ether, Italy is going through
some hard times financially.
Some self inflicted by governments spending more than the took in to stay in power and
some because the banks refused to take a haircut.
Many small businesses are just barely survive and a couple of months without income is
going to really hurt.
Michael Osterholm -
Wikipedia (born March 10, 1953) is an American infectious disease epidemiologist, regents
professor, and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the
University of Minnesota.
Scientific establishment want money, want importance, wants political influence. That create
difficult dilemma and force some people play the role of fear mongers.
BUMP 00:10 Intro 0:40 How bad is Coronavirus
4:00 Is
the virus an "old persons" disease 5:18 Incubation period
7:50
What can be done to prevent infection 13:45 Drug shortages 15:20 Sauna use
effect on infections 18:00 Was Coronavirus man-made
22:00
American Wild Deer diseases and Prions 32:00 Is Corona seasonal
35:00
Corona could be 10 times worse than the flu 35:25 Corona will stay around
for months 36:10 Coronavirus vs Spanish
flu 38:30 How can we prepare our
immune system 43:20 Do hand sanitizers and
masks work 50:00 We stockpile weapons more
than medical goods 54:30 Will people panic if they
are told the truth 56:00 Vaccines 1:02:00 Why a
virus would originate from China 1:11:30 What to do if you get
the flu 1:15:45 Lime disease and ticks
1:23:00
Effects of fire suppression on ecosystem 1:30:00 Vaccine for
Coronavirus
Sick nurses working, I have experienced that in every nursing home I have worked in in the
US. In California and NV. Luckily, I found the trick, If I have a headache that won't be
resolved with hydration, I figure it's a flu, I take 4 grams of C and 20,000 IU of D, and
usually that takes care of it, no more symptoms. In the case that it persists, I keep taking
4 grams of C ever few hours and high dose D until the symptoms subside. Usually doesn't take
too long, and ( a few hours) symptoms don't get bad.
Beware of any expert that promotes fearfulness and helplessness and tells us to just wait
for a "miracle" vaccine. Why didn't he tell us the truth about the success of vitamin C
therapy? Why didn't he tell us that some common medications like ibuprofen and heart
medications can impede healing of the virus.
div> It´s funny and very predictable how programmed into fear people have become
when it´s never the virus that kills you, but a weak immune system´s panick
reaction. If you believe the MSM is not aligned with certain agendas, the WHO is not
inherently corrupt, the pharmaceutical vaccine pushing industries have your best interests at
heart and doctors really know what they are talking about when they always look at the parts
as seperated and never the whole living system, then you will be shocked to learn the truth.
https://www.youtube.com/user/drvashiva/videos
I really look forward to a time, probably thanks to this crisis it will be in the not so
distant future, where people will begin to wake up, see through the BS we are being bombarded
with from the parasitical class of "rulers" or "elites". Then a paradigm shift in so many
ways will begin to take place... Greetings from a tireless truth seeker!
lass="comment-renderer-text-content expanded"> the difference between COVID 19 and the
spanish flu and the fear rampant about this comparison is that our health care system is a
little more advanced than what was available back in 1919 AND we are also so much more
informed regarding hygiene practices.........not discounting the seriousness of this
unprecendented occurrence.........but still great to focus on the "little" advantages we can
monopolise on. in order to tackle this global crisis head on and rationally
> @PowerfulJRE - Joe PLEASE have Michael Osterholm back on asap and please ask Michael
the following questions...
1) Are highly infectious airborne cold viruses killed by ozone from ozone/ion
generators(?) and
2) Why do medical facilities and schools no longer install or utilize UV disinfection
lighting like they use to utilize/install in entranceways, hallways, and rooms of hospitals
and school classrooms like they use to do 50-75 years ago(?)
N95 masks....remember kids its a one way valve on the front of those things....breath in,
and it filters the air....breath out, valve opens and the air goes out, " unfiltered". If
you're sick, these masks will not prevent you from spreading it around.
> Osterholm is a catalog of infectious disease info that is beyond valuable . . he's in
his 60s . . maybe the planet has others who could fill his shoes in my home state of
Minnesota; of course, I hope so! He also has a good sense of humor, managing a little chuckle
when Joe suggested if any president could get around the informed consent issue of testing
vaccines on prisoners, such as nasty rapists, it would be Trump. I'm glad to receive all the
helpful info without a steady dose of politics and conspiracy chitchat. Now I know that my
prebiotic and probiotic pills are only good for temporary relief and that my natural flora
and fauna in the gut will take over...
51:46 "We spend about 0.001% on
public health compared to our defense department and yet look how vulnerable...it's the
bugs...it's not a war...it's not a missile...is bringing the world economy down right
now....it's a darn virus."
Can you imagine if even half the US defence budget was redirected into health care and
research!! We (the world) spend trillions on arms and now we are fighting an enemy that
bullets can't kill!! Infuriating!! 😡😡😠😠
> How do you draw the conclusion that such viruses would always come from China? MERS
was first discovered in the middle east, the 2009 flu originated in mexico, the Spanish flu
originated in Kansas. I mean like if you search China on the pandemic wikipedia page there's
only SARS and several flu outbreaks.
Also Wild life is not part of the cuisine in most of China, and it's really more of a
status symbol for rich people to be able to find exotic food
"article"> There is another nasty virus going around here in Victoria BC Canada that is
a bit like CORVID-19.. I got it in mid-December and I am just getting over it. My friends
recovered in two to three weeks. The symptoms include a cough that goes on and on leaving you
breathless, extremely sore throat, runny nose, extreme weakness. Even the emergency room
doctor said she had it. Have you heard of it? I think I got it travelling in a Handi-dart van
with some elderly, sneezing Chinese speaking males.
51:40 Good reminder of war
against missiles vs virus. Budgets... 53:00 his talk to
banking/finance people. Scary. Like children, whereas Michael is more analytical, like
engineers/scientists, see it all as problem-solution.
Unfortunately, we in the US are way behind the curve in finding and locking down clusters.
In fact super-spreaders - mostly young fools ignoring social distancing on beaches, in parks,
restaurants etc - are now popping up, most recently returning from Florida spring break to
Utah. Testing rates remain abysmal.
Idaho cases just went exponential, doubling about every 3 days. Republic Governor there is
pretty much a copy of Trump, as in a dangerous idiot, giving press conferences with multiple
staff hovering around, downplaying the risks, lying about test availability, talking about
protecting businesses, etc.
There is by now lots of material on the internet for the reader to understand how
deaths by pre-existing illness have been attributed to Covid-19, and this site provides a
reasonably good starting place (please see the article linked to above titled, Covid-19 and
pneumonic immune system overreaction).
On the other hand, the effort to get to grips with the reason that a fake pandemic has
been used by governments in the west to destroy the livelihoods of their governed is
something that has not solidified into a coherent and demonstrable idea, and perhaps the only
proof of the pudding will be in the eating; i.e. we will only know when it is happening to
us.
However, at that stage knowledge of Covid-19 as the phantom scapegoat will be well
established.
And just as the widespread exposure of al-Qaeda, which was the equivalent
bogeyman device in the War on Terror as an Orwellian tool of those executing the reaction to
(their own) terrorist provocation, proved to undermine and cause to fail a plan for
domination of foreign territory by Globalist financier class interests, so too will
widespread appreciation of the true nature of Covid-19 undermine and cause to fail the
irregular warfare that is now being unleashed on domestic territories
First of all I see few people wearing masks in my city. In photos on the internet and
media websites those that do seem to be staged photos. The thumbnail photo for this article
supposedly shows Italy, the country allegedly hardest hit, the Roman Arena in the background
but only one girl wearing a mask. Yet I hear the virus is spreading like "wildfire" and such
nonsense. I read congregations of more than 50 people is prohibited but yet see supermarkets
full of folks jostling each other. Even on the internet I see photos beating the virulence
and destructive power of the virus, photos with 20 people and only 2 wearing masks.
Second, every country is "locking down" although deaths to infections are around 1.5%
and deaths to total world population are negligible to the point of irrelevancy. Other
tropical diseases kill millions annually with hardly a blink from anyone or any government.
Deaths from road accidents worldwide must be in the hundreds of thousands. Why is there no
shutdown or driver quarantine internationally ? One is at greater risk of violence in modern
day urban centers. We have African countries with germs scientists have not even discovered
"locking down".
Third, the "experts" seem to be clueless and clued out. One minute everyone has to self
quarantine and now I see the leading WHO expert saying everything cannot be locked down. They
need to identify the infected and their contacts and isolate THEM or else the virus "could
jump up again". Other experts not to be outdone assert the virus could reappear in September.
Then there is all the jargon like social distancing and flattening the curve.
Fourth, all the billions now being thrown around for the "War" on the virus is like
spilling honey on an ants nest. I dont want to be crass but will health units accurately test
and report results. Lets say a Government has set aside $100,000 per infected citizen. Go to
the hospital with a sniffle and you may well be diagnosed with the virus, the health
professionals only too happy to bill the Government. Since it is you, a wife and three kids
and you had a birthday party recently with 14 other relatives one is now running into the
millions. There seems to be too much incentive to flog this virus and milk every penny
possible from whoever is shovelling out the cash.
Fifth, this virus seems to be killing people well up in their age whose immune systems
are already weak. Germs, insects and pests and scavengers always congregate where there is
filth. Poor eating habits, bad diet, lack of exercise, smoking, drinking and use of
recreational and other drugs weaken the immune system and make the blood dirty leaving it
open to infection by ANY germ or virus that comes along. In any case the media seems to tout
statistics in a dishonest way. For example "Country X now has 30,000 infections" is spun as
if the 30,000 died or "Deaths shatter records, rise by 30%" when in fact the 30% rise amounts
to three people.
I could go on for another 2000 words. Even poor Harvey, locked away in jail is now
infected. Everyone is looking for an angle and flogging this virus. Everyone forgets we went
through this with Swine Flu, Bird Flu, West Nile, Sars and Anthrax. Now it is COVID !
Everyone is looking for a payout. The herd instinct s strong, monkey see monkey do. States
with no infections are locking down.
Finally, there si all the finger pointing about the origin of the virus and the name
squeezes out accusations of racism, bigotry and whatever. It now seems fashionable to have
the virus with Mr and Mrs Rich and Famous claiming to have tested for it and so forth. Yahoo
had an article today showing a well dressed white girl wearing a black mask in front of a
chinese building. Looked like a photoshoot and recently there was an article from a boy
telling what is was like to have the virus. He looked very healthy with a big smile. I guess
he is one of those rare characters who can be flat on their backs for 2 weeks with a deadly
virus and come out looking like Clark Gable.
As to why this would NOT be a hoax. Why would the market crash and the economy be
ruined ? The answer to me is that it started as a virus and people saw a way they could
exploit it. Maybe they never expected the reaction in terms of shutdowns and lockups , maybe
they never expected the reactions to be so out of control but ultimately the reason is
MONEY.
The public gets fooled everytime with this nonsense or some other rubbish. The
traditional media and social media flog this virus ad nauseum to the point where ordinary
folks panic from the sheer volume of information and opinions and "research" .Brace
yourselves, 2021 or 2022 will bring another "catastrophe" and we will fall for the b/s all
over again. I dont know about other commentators but I am tired of the whole thing and the
cure will decimate many more than the virus itself.
A very interesting discussion by Dr.
Wolfgang Wodarg. He compare this epidemic hype with famous Andersen tale about the Naked King.
He points out on the fact that test for the virus was developed in a hurry and it is unclear how many false
positive it allow.
All-in-all a very interesting, educational discussion by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg even you do not agree with him.
Two issues continue to be misrepresented which systematicly allow "corona" to take on the spectre of the Zombie Apocalypse:
1. Social distancing keeps people out of the sneeze-cough zone for droplet contamination by air. Yet social shunning of those
who continue to cough and sneeze in public in fact is what needs to be made the primary line of defense. Not the crowds of people
stocking up on toilet paper but virtuously standing 6 feet apart, clueless about their own role fostering the Zombie Apocalypse
imagery.
2. Self-inoculation is the second source of infection, and way under-emphasizied while again disguised by virtuous but meaningless
ritual behavior.
All the talk is about hand washing, surface decontamination and hand sanitizers which ultimately are a fools errand since this
additional new, and critical ritual behavior often fails to emphasize the absolutely important disease connection that comes from
sticking your very own (presumed) dirty fingers into one's own nose, mouth and/or eyes.
Few are 100% observant about how many surfaces they actually touch before the stick their "washed or sanitized hands" back
into their own mouth, nose or eyes.
Washing your hands remains #1 in importance, but so does WATCHING your hands.
"Don't touch your face" misses the point too - another message fail - one must vividly make the connection between their own
fingers and their own body orifices leading to the upper respiratory tract. And continue to be aware of this connection 24/7 -
no exceptions.
Organic homemake hand sanitizers are as good as the last thing you touched or the next person who cough next to your clorox-wiped
surfaces.
The media goes out of its way to instill the Zombie Apocalypse vision of this "flu" - it is everywhere, you must fear everything
and nothing can protect you. If you touch it, you will die. If it is in the air, you will die. You never know who has it. You
are a victim. And it is someone else's fault.
So one can pretend to do useless and ritual activities but ignore one's own role and one's own personal responsibility for
its contact and spread.
1. Socially shun anyone who fails to protect their coughs or sneezes, until they learn new habits - how does staying 6 feet
away from everyone teach the offenders new habits?
2. Wash your hands and watch what you touch. 100% of the time.
TSA is now with us 100% of the time after 911- regardless of the numerical threat. Proper self-hygiene needs to be with us
100% of the time too - and never should have left us.
Here in the UK either our management are incompetent of they know something we don't is my take.
Apart from summary figures broken down by Health district for 'got it' or 'dead from it' there is nothing. Testing apart from
in hospitals is unknown unless you are famous so no-one has any idea what the viruses progress is in the community. What is happening
at individual hospitals is probably a state secret now.
Even though, between themselves, they knew it was coming at the latest in mid January, they did nothing. No extra orders for
masks, ventilators etc.
Yet they are allowing fear and panic to rip through the community and huge economic damage.
I haven't yet properly worked out cui bono but I have my suspicions. But they are passing some draconian laws.
The actual mortality rate may be closer to 1% or less with most of it concentrated in the over 70s. The reasonable thing to do
would have been to protect seniors while letting everyone else go about their business. Nuking the economy with lockdowns is the
politicians' way of competing with each other to show they're "doing something." It's craven behavior not leadership.
Thank you Larry for the sobering analysis of Corvid-19.
I only disagree with your emphasis that the social distancing is the main cause of economic collapse.
Methinks that the everything bubble in coordination of unrepayable debt fiasco has arrived, and the ELITES/media are distracting
from refinancing the Wall Street gamblers, Share-buyback artists, Private equity leveraged asset strippers and the offshore artist
looser.
We are replaying the 2008 modus operandi get the elites saved financially and let the poor people try to survive on their own
as they assume all the obligation of the
elite rescue
Larry Johnson - I'm afraid I'm rather more of JJ Jackson's view as to the potential seriousness of this disease.
But the economic effects are already pretty devastating. 10% of world trade is tourism and related. Entertainment is a big
industry. Both hard hit and other sectors too. Pensioners spend a fair bit and many are no longer doing so.
So whether we panic or not that's the reality. A reality superimposed on a weak and vulnerable economy. Also on a financial
system already on life support.
That's more the case in my country than yours, by quite a long chalk. Even so, though I believe the US is in a better position
to recover, the hit's coming our way wherever we live. You can't take that amount of economic activity out and expect there to
be only a few bumps in the road.
Theoretically the best approach is yours. Business as usual, tuck the vulnerable away, take such casualties as come along among
the less vulnerable. Could even be an opportunity for economic regeneration along Trump 2016 lines.
This hasn't happened and I doubt it would have even had the strategy been agreed on and adopted early on. And there's too much
disconnect between the rulers and ruled for anything constructive much to happen now, certainly in UK politics though it would
be presumptuous in me to venture an opinion here about yours. This is already a big deal and should be treated as such.
I've been following your analyses on Russiagate and they're on the money every time. I hope the pandemic isn't used as an opportunity
to bury that disgraceful affair. But there'll be plenty hoping it's just that.
@Dd I
don't know, but I have a lot of questions about things I have been reading, from the data,
demonstrating the weakness of the virus, and non-lethality, to a New York Times opinion
piece, authored by a "writer, producer and yoga teacher" who apparently contracted the virus,
and had to be hospitalized noting that it did not keep her (Fiona Lowenstein) from taking a
"selfie", apparently with a non-sterile, yet-somehow-permitted-in-the-hospital room cell
phone? You normally have all that stuff bagged up. I dunno. Check out the article and her
pic, judge for yourself.
It isn't that I don't think it is possible, or true, about this or other similar stories,
or that the data is fake or false .there's just so much to digest and some of it seems
incredulous and/or contradictory.
From comments: "They had three months to prepare. Their attitude: "They need us more than we
need them. Get ready for brexit." That is all they care about. Their criminal neglect and insane
obsession has consigned tens of thousands to death. "
Notable quotes:
"... nearly 4,000 NHS workers appealed to the prime minister to "protect the lives of the life-savers" and resolve the "unacceptable" shortage of protective equipment. ..."
"... Dr Parmar told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "We have had doctors tell us they feel like lambs to the slaughter, that they feel like cannon fodder. GPs tell us that they feel absolutely abandoned. ..."
"... In an open letter to The Sunday Times, some 3,963 doctors said staff were "putting their lives on the line every day" by treating coronavirus patients without appropriate protection. ..."
"... The letter said: "Frontline doctors have been telling us for weeks that they do not feel safe at work. ..."
Coronavirus: NHS doctors feel like 'lambs to slaughter' without protective kit, warns senior
medic. 'We must really stress to the prime minister that we need to protect the front line
here'
Doctors battling the coronavirus outbreak feel like "lambs to the slaughter" without
adequate protection equipment, a senior medic has said.
Dr Rinesh Parmar, chair of the Doctors' Association, said frontline NHS staff were being
treated as "cannon fodder" as he launched a desperate appeal to Boris Johnson for more
resources to keep medics safe.
Dr Parmar, a consultant anaesthetist who is working on a Covid-19 intensive care ward, said
it was the "calm before the storm" and NHS staff were braced for a surge in cases.
His warning came as nearly 4,000 NHS workers appealed to the prime minister to "protect
the lives of the life-savers" and resolve the "unacceptable" shortage of protective
equipment.
Dr Parmar told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "We have had doctors tell us they feel like
lambs to the slaughter, that they feel like cannon fodder. GPs tell us that they feel
absolutely abandoned.
... ... ...
In an open letter to The Sunday Times, some 3,963 doctors said staff were "putting their
lives on the line every day" by treating coronavirus patients without appropriate
protection.
The letter said: "Frontline doctors have been telling us for weeks that they do not feel
safe at work.
"Intensive care doctors and anaesthetists have told us they have been carrying out the
highest-risk procedure, putting a patient on a ventilator, with masks that expired in
2015."
Microware can be used for cleaning if you make the mask slightly wet. In this case they will
heat to over 60 0 C. Other then using alcohol this is probably the fastest method of
disinfection
Chronology of the death of a French doctor today. Came back from a trip to Madagascar a month
ago in good shape. Was working at Compiegnes, which because a cluster in mid-February when it
received a taxi driver who was positive and treated him without special precautions. Got sick
and was quarantined 3 weeks ago, i.e. early March, two weeks after exposition.
Died today. That is to say that most of the dead we see now might have been affected since
mid-Feb.
Dr. Dan Lee Dinke: All Corona-viruses have a common weakness:heat kills them. Specifically
relative short exposure to 56°C. Breathing hot air in a sauna for 20 minutes will mostly
clean the upper respiratory tract of corona-viruses, but a hair dryer can also help if no
sauna available.
The video is worth to watch and could save lives through such a simple method.
@LP #52
Wrong. The lower respiratory tract - the temperature is stable via mixing outside air with
inside. Otherwise people could not survive in extreme cold or extreme heat situations.
The hot air might kill the virus outside; it won't kill the virus in the lower respiratory
tract.
In Wuhan, ground zero for the virus, four healthcare workers -- including doctors -- have
told CNN of the difficulties facing medical crews on the ground. They have asked to remain
anonymous to avoid repercussions.
Through telephone conversations with CNN and posts on Chinese social media, they told of low
hospital resources. In private groups online, those identified as hospital staff are
coordinating with members of the public to import protective equipment as they treat an
increasing number of infected patients.
"In terms of resources, the whole of Wuhan is lacking," one Wuhan-based healthcare worker
told CNN by phone. This person said they were looking for more protective clothing,
protective goggles and masks.
"It's really like we're going into battle stripped to the waist," one healthcare worker
added, using a Chinese idiom that equates to "going into battle without armor".
One hospital staff member claims healthcare workers have resorted to wearing diapers to work
so as to avoid having to remove their HAZMAT suits, which they say are in short supply. A
doctor on her Chinese social media Weibo page described similar accounts at another Wuhan
hospital.
"My family members are definitely worried about me, but I still have to work," another
doctor told. But she said that she is hopeful they will ultimately get the gear they need. "Our
bosses, our hospital suppliers will definitely find a way to get these stocks to us," she
added.
It's not clear if these accounts are anecdotal or whether there are widespread shortages
across Wuhan.
Chinese state media has also shared posts from multiple Wuhan hospitals in which they ask
for public donations of medical supplies. They report that one hospital staff member said the
current supplies "are only able to sustain three or four days".
The Wuhan Health Commission has requisitioned over 10,000 beds from 24 hospitals to be used
in the treatment of confirmed and suspected cases.
On Friday, Wuhan officials acknowledged that local hospitals were struggling to accommodate
people seeking medical attention and said measures were being put into place to alleviate the
situation.
State media also reported that the city aims to build a 25,000 square meter (269,100 square
foot) new facility within a week, increasing hospital capacity by 1,000 beds, and that several
medical centers in Hubei province are asking for medical gear donations.
I read of the new tool scanning online messages. Checking in: late afternoon my two comments,
in reply, failed to appear in the "Western Governments failures" thread.
[.] Gates Foundation monies via CEPI are financing development of a radical new vaccine
method known as messengerRNA or mRNA.
They are co-funding the Cambridge, Massachusetts biotech company, Moderna Inc., to
develop a vaccine against the Wuhan novel coronavirus, now called SARS-CoV-2. Moderna's
other partner is the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a
part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Head of NIAID is Dr Anthony Fauci, the
person at the center of the Trump Administration virus emergency response. Notable about
the Fauci-Gates Moderna coronavirus vaccine, mRNA-1273, is that it has been rolled out in a
matter of weeks, not years, and on February 24 went directly to Fauci's NIH for tests on
human guinea pigs, not on mice as normal. Moderna's chief medical adviser, Tal Zaks,
argued, "I don't think proving this in an animal model is on the critical path to getting
this to a clinical trial."
Another notable admission by Moderna on its website is the legal disclaimer, "Special
Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: These risks, uncertainties, and other factors
include, among others: the fact that there has never been a commercial product utilizing
mRNA technology approved for use." In other words, completely unproven for human health and
safety.
Another biotech company working with unproven mRNA technology to develop a vaccine for
the COVID-19 is a German company, CureVac. Since 2015 CureVac has received money from the
Gates Foundation to develop its own mRNA technology. In January the Gates-backed CEPI
granted more than $8 million to develop a mRNA vaccine for the novel coronavirus.[.]
======
early fall the CDC planning and forgot to order test kits and ventilators:---{hapstance}
---the recruitment of
Public Health Advisors (Quarantine Program) country wide major cities, every state
Open Period:2019-11-15 to 2020-05-15 Salary $511440. to $93077.
Job summary: - responsible for preventing the importation and spread of communicable diseases
from abroad and spread of these diseases domestically.[.]
Duties:
[Provide technical assistance, consultation and guidance to national, state and / or local
agencies; health organizations; federal, state and local law enforcement agencies [.] and
quarantine activities [.] ]
"It is the existence of these serious cases (absurdly estimated at 15% of the cases, probably
in reality 10 times less) that justifies not simply relying on group immunity. ..."
Hubei is the best figures we have at the moment. Still 5,000 or so active cases there but
everything has stabilized enough to get an idea of percentages.
Numbers at the moment
Recovered 59,432
Deaths 3,144
Active 5224
That gives a death rate of around 5% of those infected. There will also be a good number
have suffered permanent lung damage, perhaps another 5%.
No medical care and those numbers go a lot higher.
"... By mid-February, it was clear that certain drugs and anti-virals were effective. It was important to have widespread tests so that these drugs could be administered early, especially to vulnerable populations. Yet weeks later, the West (especially USA) was still unprepared to test. ..."
The real danger was always in the possibility that the healthcare system is overwhelmed.
Then you get large numbers of unnecessary deaths.
So a country needs to flatten the curve. The best way to do that is to close the
schools as soon as community spread is detected. In the West, this should've been done in
early February - it wasn't.
By mid-February, it was clear that certain drugs and anti-virals were effective. It
was important to have widespread tests so that these drugs could be administered early,
especially to vulnerable populations. Yet weeks later, the West (especially USA) was still
unprepared to test.
There didn't need to be a crisis or a panic. But a CRISIS! is something that is
politically useful: to direct hate against China; to provide extraordinary support to
favored interests like Banks and Wall Street and Boeing.
In addition, it seems that USA/Trump was hoping that remdesivir, developed by Gilead
Sciences, would be the (expensive) drug of choice to treat Covid-19.
There is a saying the you fight the war with the army you have, not with the army you want.
Notable quotes:
"... Ok. Let me start by stating that I am not a "staunch" Trump supporter. However, I just really despise the constant visceral negative, hatred towards our Country's President. ..."
"... As I am sure you are aware, it is a tremendously difficult job, especially in today's crisis. I would think it would be better serve of your time and efforts to be constructive and optimistic, and hopeful. Rather than pinpointed every single steps and missteps he makes. He is certainly no perfect - but his goal is the same as all of ours: to defeat this virus in the best manner possible with the resources available. ..."
"... For the entire Trump Presidency it was all about the stock market. So, here we are. ..."
20 hours ago Here is a 1 minute 22 second video timeline of Trump's amazing handling of the coronavirus.
Please play this.
It will take less than two minutes of your time.
One missing key quote is a statement Trump made bragging about having natural talent coupled with a proclamation that he could
have been a scientist instead of president.
More Questions:
And where are the tests? The ventilators?
Who at the CDC or in the administration insisted the US needs to develop its own test instead of using an accurate test the rest
of the world was already using?
What about Trump increasing sanction pressure on Iran in the midst of the biggest global humanitarian crisis since world war II?
And what about Trump's rating his administration's handling of this as "excellent".
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
njbr 20 hrs
The dumb-asses in DC still don't get it. "Top" leaders crowding around a single microphone in a stage no larger than a public
restroom. Working toward a 1 time $1200 check that probably wont be issued/delivered for another couple weeks. What about the weeks
after that--are they going to spend the next couple weeks going around about the next check?? Has the production of ventilators actually
been accelerated-who could tell from what has been said? Why are nurses and doctors in my area asking the public for donations of
PPE at the very beginning of the serious phase? What happens when the doctors and nurses start tipping over? Two partially ready
hospital ships may help in one spot each on the coast, but what about everywhere else? Has anyone even checked on the production
capacity for the maybe helpful malaria medicine--has anyone been directed to begin proactive super-production of this product? On
and on.
DeeDee3
20 hrs
hard to prove deliberate neglect when you eliminate all of the evidence. No testing means "no virus" and sadly supported the hoax
theory.
Another doc died in the city today. ER's are unprotected. what conclusion can we draw from all of this?
Zardoz
20 hrs
Thousands will die because of his incompetence... and his followers will blame the Chinese
egilkinc
20 hrs
There should be a tracker of the number of cases [among medical personnle] in the US along with this
Sechel
20 hrs
Oh my g-d. This is excellent! I think Trump has learned some bad lessons from Goebbels. Repeat the lie and repeat it often and
people will take your version of events. This really serves to correct the record! Good work!
PecuniaNonOlet
20 hrs
And yet there will be an avalanche of Trump supporters defending the idiot. It is truly beyond me.
michiganmoon
20 hrs
Actually, Trump should resign and give the GOP a chance this November.
Had Trump not downplayed this and had tests ready, he could have played on a loop Biden on January 31st saying travel restrictions
from Wuhan were racist and xenophobic.
thesaint0013
20 hrs
Ok. Let me start by stating that I am not a "staunch" Trump supporter. However, I just really despise the constant visceral negative,
hatred towards our Country's President.
As I am sure you are aware, it is a tremendously difficult job, especially in today's crisis.
I would think it would be better serve of your time and efforts to be constructive and optimistic, and hopeful. Rather than pinpointed
every single steps and missteps he makes. He is certainly no perfect - but his goal is the same as all of ours: to defeat this virus
in the best manner possible with the resources available.
To criticize previous tweets, interviews, and depict his flaws and errors
does not help the common goal. The nature of some of the questions posed to him during the press conferences should be a bit more
respectful and again, it doesn't serve any positive outcome to try and "catch" him in a lie, and how he may have said something that
was not factual or false.
Again, he's not perfect and neither are anyone of us. However he is our President and we should support
his and all of our common goal to defeat this virus.
Russell
J 20 hrs
Not making excuses for Trump at all but he/we have people who are specialists and are responsible for being ready at all times
for something like this and are responsible for being on the look out for this. Somebody should have came forward, even as a whistleblower.
I've been aware for about 2 months now.
Thank you WWW.PEAKPROSPERITY.COM, MISH and WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM
This was an epic failure of Trump, his administration and America in general.
ghoffa
20 hrs
Hi, @MishTalk @Mish
I wanted to sincerely thank you MISH from my whole extended family. I have been reading you since 2007 when Ron Paul removed the
scales from my eyes on the Fed and govt., Jekyll Island book, the "financial markets" (all modern day money changers). Every picture
I see of Fed chairpersons, their eyes look dead black sharks eyes (to quote a famous book which I subscribe, the eyes are the windows
to the soul).
In addition our mob style duolopoly govt and for the most part complicit MSM (all with significant influencing billionaire ownership
to control the news - easily searched). I've learned so much from this blog and the many commentors in this space ( a personal fav
is @Stuki ) . Nothing short of brilliant and reminds me of my fav news source Zerohedge and it's articles and commentors.
A special thanks for pointing us to Chris Martenson (peakprosperity.com) as my wife and I have watched every day his free daily
videos since JAN @24th and our extended family is as prepared as we can be. God help us all with what's coming.
For those who haven't watched it, Dr. Martenson has a great 3 min video on exponential growth on YTube. Search his name and exponential.
It will help you prepare for what our govt knows is coming in enourmous exponential growth in fatalities. Even knowing, it will be
an emotional thing to prepare for. Prepping home supplies is one thing, prepping emotionally is also important per Dr. Martenson.
HCWs be damned.
As this impacts people personally, I expect insider leaks to come from many fronts. We're working with neighbors to get prepared
as we're all on our own now as the money changers (evil) bail out the money changers (evil) amidst a system that is so debt leveraged
it can't likely be bailed out. "everything's a nail and the Fed has a hammer".
Lastly this brings a famous quote to mind as the people rise up against corrupt govt, corp bailouts after stock buy backs, etc.
Let alone the monsters upon monsters creating lab viruses (regardless of the source of this virus), and unregulated GMOs changing
the fabric of life.....
"All it takes for evil to prevail is for good people to do nothing". Margaret Mead
G
QE2Infinity
20 hrs
Come on! First off, anyone can be made to look bad by taking snippets out of context and stringing them together. That said, Trump
does tend towards braggadocio. If that is off putting to you, he can be annoying. I much prefer a transparent fool to the more sly
variety that plays the part well while sticking a knife in your back.
But let's be honest here. The president can do very little. The bureaucracy of the government is a jobs program for the less ambitious
and politically inclined. It's staffed with incompetent bureaucrats that show up, surf the web and may get around to an hour or two
of honest work. Public unions guarantee they can't be fired.
Obama converted the CDC into a PC jobs program for lefties, just like he converted NASA into a Muslim outreach program.
May one ask: why is a self proclaimed libertarian screaming for more government action? Wouldn't it be great if one of the outcomes
of this crisis is that local communities became more self reliant and more self sufficient!
Sechel
20 hrs
that's from a website called therecount.com looks interesting.
Greggg
20 hrs
For the entire Trump Presidency it was all about the stock market. So, here we are.
The graphic at the end of the video already looks out of date and shows how rapid the spread has been. For March 2020 it shows
5,002 cases in the US (and counting) but right now I'm seeing 24,137 cases.
So much for "in a couple of days the 15 is going to be down close to zero".
njbr
20 hrs
What can the President do?
Force and organize the production of necessary goods.
Act as impartial hub for the distribution of new and stocked items.
Force/fund the emergency super-production of even possibly helpful items such as the malarial drug.
Turn every possible research dollar onto the research into the disease, it's treatments and vaccines.
Fund and distribute tests. Make a way to track the progress of the disease, as opposed to waiting for regional medical systems
collapse under load.
Activate whatever resources are possible to pre-position and set-up field hospitals now.
Develop uniform best-practices for quarantine and treatment.
Prepare the population for the realistic probability of multiple months of the crisis.
Mish Editor
19 hrs
May one ask: why is a self proclaimed libertarian screaming for more government action? Wouldn't it be great if one of the outcomes
of this crisis is that local communities became more self reliant and more self sufficient!
I said what I would do
I would remove tariffs. I would not have had them in the first place.
I would expect our president to act to increase supplies not insist on Made in America.
I would expect our president to behave like an emphatic human being, not a total moron
Mish
Editor
19 hrs
Trump did not Drain the Swamp. He IS the swamp
Mish Editor
19 hrs
Anyone who still supports this President's actions is a TDS-inflicted fool.
Jim
Bob 19 hrs
I've followed Mish for ~ 12 years online and on the radio for brilliant economic analysis. Lately his work has been undermined
by irrational political opinion. Mish has turned into Krugman. I won't be back.
abend237-04
19 hrs
The Donald is obviously afflicted with the same narcissistic megalomania prerequisite for a successful run at any elective office
above County Coroner, anywhere in this country.
That said, he can apparently read a graph, and he's right: The two drug combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin are working
to treat this damn thing, BUT:
It is, indeed, not a Covid-19 preventative.
If you get it, and you dink around at home too long waiting for improvement, arriving at ICU needing ventilation leaves you with
roughly the odds of Russian roulette of surviving, especially if you're older.
Lacking testing, the only remaining means available to knock the transmission rate down quickly is social distancing/lockdown. But,
enough of that prevention can leave us wishing we were dead anyway.
Unfortunately, all the college kids jamming the bars and beaches is setting the stage for continued exponential growth by hordes
of asymptomatic spreaders.
The march of folly continues.
I like what I'm seeing of Cuomo. He'd be a good guy to have in the room in a serious fight; This qualifies.
DBG8489
19 hrs
As someone who hates all politicians, there is zero love lost between Trump and myself. I had hopes when he was elected that he
would make a difference but it was clear based on how he looked after his private meeting with Obama on inauguration day that he
was in over his head.
Having said that, I will say this:
From at least the "major" state level up, it would appear that not one single elected official or the top advisors and bureaucrats
who work for them have shown anything but complete and utter failure in their handling of this emergency.
You have senators selling off piles of stock while either saying nothing or telling the rest of us that it was bullshit. And trust
me - they were not the only ones. If anyone cares to investigate, they will likely find this problem rampant. Elected officials should
not even be allowed to trade stocks when they control the entire economy - not even through alleged "blind trusts" - it's bullshit.
But that's a conversation for another time.
You have congressional reps and senators blaming each other and/or the other party and passing laws and bailouts without even
reading the bills they are passing.
You have the Treasury and the Fed printing money and throwing it at every hole that opens up without the slightest regard for
what the unintended consequences of those actions may entail.
You have governments of the "major" states (CA, NY, NJ...etc) who know they can't simply print money being exposed using any extra
money they had (along with taxes based on tourism that have now disappeared) to fund God knows what now demanding that everyone else
pony up to pay for their failure to plan...
The lack of leadership in the major states and at the Federal level is abysmal ACROSS THE BOARD.
And that includes members of BOTH parties and nearly every single bureaucratic agency involved.
You can single Trump out if you want, but he's not alone. He's just an easy target because 49% of the population hated him before
this started.
njbr
18 hrs
....Top health officials first learned of the virus's spread in China on January 3, US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex
Azar said Friday. Throughout January and February, intelligence officials' warnings became more and more urgent, according to the
Post -- and by early February, much of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA's intelligence reports were
dedicated to warnings about Covid-19.
All the while, Trump downplayed the virus publicly, telling the public the coronavirus "is very well under control in our country,"
and suggesting warm weather would neutralize the threat the virus poses....
...The administration did begin taking some limited action about a month after Azar says the administration first began receiving
warnings, blocking non-citizens who had been to China in the last two weeks from entering the country on February 3 -- a move public
experts have argued at best bought the US time to ramp up its testing capabilities, which it did not use, and at worst had no beneficial
effects at all.
Trump finally assembled a task force to address the virus, putting Vice President Mike Pence in charge of the effort on February
26, and declared a national emergency on March 13. And, just this week -- nearly three months after first receiving warnings from
his intelligence officials -- the president's public tone about the crisis shifted: "I've always known this is a real -- this is
a pandemic," he said Tuesday as he admitted, "[the virus is] not under control for any place in the world."....
Realist
18 hrs
I have been watching political leaders in my own country get on television daily. They have all done a great job of informing
the public about the dangers of this virus. They have all relied on the experts to relay information to the public about what the
government is doing, and what individuals should be doing. This is true at the national, regional, and local levels.
In addition businesses have been sending out emails, radio announcements and tv messages explaining what they are doing in regard
to this pandemic.
In fact, I am amazed at what a good job everyone is doing.
I am also watching what is happening in the US. Every US state governor and city mayor I have seen on tv has done a wonderful
job of presenting the facts to the public and provided instructions as to what they are doing and what the public should be doing.
Then there is the gong show that is Trump. I could not imagine that anyone could be as bad as he is; months of lies, denials,
suppression of the truth, and a complete and utter lack of preparation for something he was warned about many times. Denying one
day that the virus was a pandemic; only to claim the very next day that he had known it was a pandemic for months; and then the very
next day say that no one could have seen this coming; and finally saying that his response to the virus rates a 10 out of 10.
Worst President ever. Sadly, many, many Americans are going to suffer and die because America had this moron in charge.
Mish keeps referring to worldometer to get stats from. Their numbers seem to match up with numbers I see in my own country and
in the US.
Disturbingly, today, the mortality rate for closed cases ticked up 1% to 12%. 12978 deaths and 94674 recovered. That is not the
direction I expected it to go.
daveyp
17 hrs
You get what you vote for. To have such a malignant narcissist of such profoundly limited intellectual honesty and capacity "leading"
your nation through this is truly tragic for your country. Even the hideously vile ultimate Washington insider Hilary would have
done a better job.
truthseeker
17 hrs
Mish I agree with much of the criticism of Trump, yet had he done everything you and others suggest, there is this implied assumption
that everything would have worked out perfectly. You know I am impressed the way the country seems to be uniting to such a great
degree, that I think there is at least some hope for our country's future though there are huge challenges that lay ahead absolutely!
abend237-04
17 hrs
I will now proceed, once again, to bitch about the root cause of our current pandemic, which is causing many to experience cosmic
scale frustration with The Donald, which I share:
Civilization has now been hit squarely in the head with three killer coronavirus outbreaks in 18 years, yet still has no unified
global new viral antigen detection system. We could have if our world "leaders" would make it happen.
Local supercomputers, however massive, will never crack this nut, but the billions of powerful, web-accessible smartphones could
if linked and used by a parallelized, intelligent scheduler to raise the alarm when a new antibody/pathogen is discovered in human
blood anywhere.
Such a system could have lifted the burden from a lonely doctor struggling to raise the alarm in Wuhan, before Covid-19 killed
him, and placed it squarely in front of disease control experts, worldwide. It can be done; We must do it.
Sars cov-3/4/5/6/7/8/9/n could kill us all if we don't.
"These officials "failed us" in the same way that our media "fails us": they serve the
interests of the EMPIRE-FIRST Deep State."
Yuppp. Our error is to assume all 17 intelligence agencies; the presstitudes; and US
"leadership" exist to serve the American people. And so, yes, they "fail" the people. But, from the point of view of the controllers of those agencies and of those "leaders",
they hardly ever fail !!!
While the people argue over virulent minutae, they are once again helping themselves to
the US Treasury.... Trillions of USDs.... LOL
".... was then told to STOP TESTING...... A medical person would not try to suppress testing.
That would be a "management decision" and its the Nation Security Council that was running
the show (and which had classified all discussions related to virus preparations)...."
Thanks for reminding us of Dr Chu's story. What if the US leadership:
Knew the coronavirus was already out in the wild in the US by Sep 2019;
Decided to set up China to be the "origin" to be blamed;
Realized that a "pandemic" can be the cover for kicking the table over to do the Great
Financial Reset;
Another reason for the curves in chaotic Fr/It/Sp is a point underlined by Campbell on 19/3
about
the fact the soccer team Manchester United has opened up its hotel free of charge for
medical
staff, so that they can return from work to a neutral place rather than to their families and
spread
the bug further. Such measures have been applied in Asia and they should have been on the
mind of
the EU gov, but apparently they were too busy thinking about their luxury holidays or their
shares
in the stocks.
Huge
jumps in
COVID-19 deaths and cases have been reported in the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, and France
this weekend. Hospital systems in many of these countries are running out of supplies, staff,
hospital beds, and ICU-level treatments.
The shortage of protective gear for medical staff at many European hospitals has forced some
to tape trash bags to their bodies as makeshift biohazard suits.
Bloomberg interviewed Samantha Gonzalez,52, who works at the Txagorritxu hospital in
Vitoria-Gasteiz, Alava, Spain. She warned: "This is not the first world anymore -- it's a war"
amid surging virus cases in the country.
Across Europe on Saturday, deaths accorded to the fast-spreading virus soared, with Italy
reporting a record 793 deaths on Friday, and Spain reporting another 300 cases, bringing their
totals to 4,825 and 1,326.
The UK also reported another string of deaths, as millions await a
lockdown order on London , while hospitals and intensive care units in Italy and Spain are
struggling to cope, despite some Madrid hotels being temporarily converted and of the Fair of
Madrid, the capital's main exhibition space.
One of the leading hospitals in Bergamo, northern Italy, the current epicenter of the virus
outbreak in Europe, has run out of hospital beds, and ICU-level treatment, as an influx in
patients, has
overwhelmed the facility . The sick are being transferred to offsite locations, equipped
with oxygen machines.
From Italy to Spain to other regions in Europe, hospital systems are at full capacity,
canceling non-urgent surgeries, and appointments to handle the influx of virus patients. In a
couple of weeks, countrywide shutdowns like what's happening in Italy could be the norm across
many European countries.
Giovanni Rezza, head of the infectious diseases department at Rome's Superior Health
Institute, said, "Italy wasn't completely prepared for the coronavirus:"
"It's only in some two weeks that Italy will find out whether the government's nationwide
lockdown and social distancing rules have had an impact," said Rezza.
"The lockdown is only delaying the spread of the epidemic, we expect that there will be
new outbreaks in future. But in the meantime we have to equip hospitals with more intensive
care beds, even in Lombardy which is one of the best-equipped regions in Europe."
The biggest challenge for European hospital systems is having enough protective gear for
medical staff.
In Spain, 3,500 Spanish doctors have contracted the virus, which is 12% of the total number
of cases detected. With the lack of gear, doctors and nurses are more susceptible to
contracting the virus, which could cause medical staff shortages that would undoubtedly lead to
high mortality rates.
"Just in the nephrology department, three out of 13 colleagues have fallen ill, one of them
seriously," said Giuseppe Remuzzi, a former head of the department of medicine at the Papa
Giovanni XXIII hospital in Bergamo, Italy, who has joined efforts to contain the pandemic.
"This is a scary, terrible situation."
Medical staff have been instructed to swap out old protective gear every four hours, which
includes changing face masks, splash guard googles, and biohazard suits. Since supplies are
limited, doctors and nurses are making their own bio hazmat suits with taping garbage bags on
their body.
"This thing blew up on us," said Pelayo Pedrero, the head of labor risk prevention at
doctors' union AMYTS in Madrid, Spain. "No one was ready for this. They didn't buy the
supplies, they didn't prepare the hospitals to receive and treat all these patients. Not just
in Madrid or Spain, but all over Europe."
To sum up, the evolution of the virus crisis is that medical gear shortages could lead to
labor shortages at hospitals across Europe because medical staff aren't adequately protected
against the virus. Europe has become the new China. And in the weeks ahead, parts of the
US could transform into Italy .
Surgical masks are currently in short supply in China and elsewhere. They were worn 100
years ago, during the great pandemic, to try and stop the influenza virus spreading. While
surgical masks may offer some protection from infection they do not seal around the face. So
they don't filter out small airborne particles. In 1918, anyone at the emergency hospital in
Boston who had contact with patients had to wear an improvised face mask. This comprised five
layers of gauze fitted to a wire frame which covered the nose and mouth. The frame was shaped
to fit the face of the wearer and prevent the gauze filter touching the mouth and nostrils. The
masks were replaced every two hours; properly sterilized and with fresh gauze put on. They were
a forerunner of the N95 respirators in use in hospitals today to protect medical staff against
airborne infection.
... ... ...
Putting infected patients out in the sun may have helped because it inactivates the
influenza virus.[7] It also kills bacteria that cause lung and other infections in
hospitals.[8] During the First World War, military surgeons routinely used sunlight to heal
infected wounds.[9] They knew it was a disinfectant. What they didn't know is that one
advantage of placing patients outside in the sun is they can synthesise vitamin D in their skin
if sunlight is strong enough. This was not discovered until the 1920s. Low vitamin D levels are
now linked to respiratory infections and may increase susceptibility to influenza.[10] Also,
our body's biological rhythms appear to influence how we resist infections.[11] New research
suggests they can alter our inflammatory response to the flu virus.[12] As with vitamin D, at
the time of the 1918 pandemic, the important part played by sunlight in synchronizing these
rhythms was not known.
"... The masks were replaced every two hours; properly sterilized and with fresh gauze put on. They were a forerunner of the N95 respirators in use in hospitals today to protect medical staff against airborne infection. ..."
Fresh air, sunlight and improvised face
masks seemed to work a century ago; and they might help us now.
by
Richard Hobday
When new, virulent diseases emerge, such
SARS and Covid-19, the race begins to find new vaccines and treatments for those affected. As the current crisis
unfolds, governments are enforcing quarantine and isolation, and public gatherings are being discouraged. Health
officials took the same approach 100 years ago, when influenza was spreading around the world. The results were
mixed. But records from the 1918 pandemic suggest one technique for dealing with influenza -- little-known today --
was effective. Some hard-won experience from the greatest pandemic in recorded history could help us in the weeks
and months ahead.
<img src="https://miro.medium.com/max/2400/1*7pNa3EQCs1VsWXRWL8_Uig.jpeg" width="1200" height="892" role="presentation"/>
Influenza patients getting sunlight at the Camp Brooks
emergency open-air hospital in Boston. Medical staff were not supposed to remove their masks. (National Archives)
Put simply, medics found that severely ill flu patients nursed outdoors recovered better than those treated
indoors. A combination of fresh air and sunlight seems to have prevented deaths among patients; and infections
among medical staff.[1] There is scientific support for this. Research shows that outdoor air is a natural
disinfectant. Fresh air can kill the flu virus and other harmful germs. Equally, sunlight is germicidal and there
is now evidence it can kill the flu virus.
`Open-Air'
Treatment in 1918
During the great pandemic, two of the
worst places to be were military barracks and troop-ships. Overcrowding and bad ventilation put soldiers and
sailors at high risk of catching influenza and the other infections that often followed it.[2,3] As with the
current Covid-19 outbreak, most of the victims of so-called `Spanish flu' did not die from influenza: they died of
pneumonia and other complications.
When the influenza pandemic reached the
East coast of the United States in 1918, the city of Boston was particularly badly hit. So the State Guard set up
an emergency hospital. They took in the worst cases among sailors on ships in Boston harbour. The hospital's
medical officer had noticed the most seriously ill sailors had been in badly-ventilated spaces. So he gave them as
much fresh air as possible by putting them in tents. And in good weather they were taken out of their tents and
put in the sun. At this time, it was common practice to put sick soldiers outdoors. Open-air therapy, as it was
known, was widely used on casualties from the Western Front. And it became the treatment of choice for another
common and often deadly respiratory infection of the time; tuberculosis. Patients were put outside in their beds
to breathe fresh outdoor air. Or they were nursed in cross-ventilated wards with the windows open day and night.
The open-air regimen remained popular until antibiotics replaced it in the 1950s.
Doctors who had first-hand experience of
open-air therapy at the hospital in Boston were convinced the regimen was effective. It was adopted elsewhere. If
one report is correct, it reduced deaths among hospital patients from 40 per cent to about 13 per cent.[4]
According to the Surgeon General of the Massachusetts State Guard:
`The efficacy of open air
treatment has been absolutely proven, and one has only to try it to discover its value.'
Fresh Air is a
Disinfectant
Patients treated outdoors were less
likely to be exposed to the infectious germs that are often present in conventional hospital wards. They were
breathing clean air in what must have been a largely sterile environment. We know this because, in the 1960s,
Ministry of Defence scientists proved that fresh air is a natural disinfectant.[5] Something in it, which they
called the Open Air Factor, is far more harmful to airborne bacteria -- and the influenza virus -- than indoor air.
They couldn't identify exactly what the Open Air Factor is. But they found it was effective both at night and
during the daytime.
Their research also revealed that the
Open Air Factor's disinfecting powers can be preserved in enclosures -- if ventilation rates are kept high enough.
Significantly, the rates they identified are the same ones that cross-ventilated hospital wards, with high
ceilings and big windows, were designed for.[6] But by the time the scientists made their discoveries, antibiotic
therapy had replaced open-air treatment. Since then the germicidal effects of fresh air have not featured in
infection control, or hospital design. Yet harmful bacteria have become increasingly resistant to antibiotics.
Sunlight and
Influenza Infection
Putting infected patients out in the sun
may have helped because it inactivates the influenza virus.[7] It also kills bacteria that cause lung and other
infections in hospitals.[8] During the First World War, military surgeons routinely used sunlight to heal infected
wounds.[9] They knew it was a disinfectant. What they didn't know is that one advantage of placing patients
outside in the sun is they can synthesise vitamin D in their skin if sunlight is strong enough. This was not
discovered until the 1920s. Low vitamin D levels are now linked to respiratory infections and may increase
susceptibility to influenza.[10] Also, our body's biological rhythms appear to influence how we resist
infections.[11] New research suggests they can alter our inflammatory response to the flu virus.[12] As with
vitamin D, at the time of the 1918 pandemic, the important part played by sunlight in synchronizing these rhythms
was not known.
Face Masks
Coronavirus and Flu
Surgical masks are currently in short
supply in China and elsewhere. They were worn 100 years ago, during the great pandemic, to try and stop the
influenza virus spreading.
While surgical masks may offer some protection from
infection they do not seal around the face. So they don't filter out small airborne particles.
In 1918, anyone at
the emergency hospital in Boston who had contact with patients had to wear an improvised face mask. This comprised
five layers of gauze fitted to a wire frame which covered the nose and mouth. The frame was shaped to fit the face
of the wearer and prevent the gauze filter touching the mouth and nostrils.
The masks were replaced every two
hours; properly sterilized and with fresh gauze put on. They were a forerunner of the N95 respirators in use in
hospitals today to protect medical staff against airborne infection.
Temporary
Hospitals
Staff at the hospital kept up high
standards of personal and environmental hygiene. No doubt this played a big part in the relatively low rates of
infection and deaths reported there. The speed with which their hospital and other temporary open-air facilities
were erected to cope with the surge in pneumonia patients was another factor. Today, many countries are not
prepared for a severe influenza pandemic.[13] Their health services will be overwhelmed if there is one. Vaccines
and antiviral drugs might help. Antibiotics may be effective for pneumonia and other complications. But much of
the world's population will not have access to them. If another 1918 comes, or the Covid-19 crisis gets worse,
history suggests it might be prudent to have tents and pre-fabricated wards ready to deal with large numbers of
seriously ill cases. Plenty of fresh air and a little sunlight might help too.
Dr. Richard Hobday is an independent
researcher working in the fields of infection control, public health and building design. He is the author of `The
Healing Sun'.
References
Hobday RA and Cason JW. The
open-air treatment of pandemic influenza. Am J Public Health 2009;99 Suppl 2:S236–42.
doi:10.2105/AJPH.2008.134627.
Aligne CA. Overcrowding and
mortality during the influenza pandemic of 1918. Am J Public Health 2016 Apr;106(4):642–4.
doi:10.2105/AJPH.2015.303018.
Summers JA, Wilson N, Baker
MG, Shanks GD. Mortality risk factors for pandemic influenza on New Zealand troop ship, 1918. Emerg Infect Dis
2010 Dec;16(12):1931–7. doi:10.3201/eid1612.100429.
Anon. Weapons against
influenza. Am J Public Health 1918 Oct;8(10):787–8. doi: 10.2105/ajph.8.10.787.
May KP, Druett HA. A
micro-thread technique for studying the viability of microbes in a simulated airborne state. J Gen Micro-biol
1968;51:353e66. Doi: 10.1099/00221287–51–3–353.
Hobday RA. The open-air factor
and infection control. J Hosp Infect 2019;103:e23-e24 doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2019.04.003.
Schuit M, Gardner S, Wood S et
al. The influence of simulated sunlight on the inactivation of influenza virus in aerosols. J Infect Dis 2020
Jan 14;221(3):372–378. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiz582.
Hobday RA, Dancer SJ. Roles of
sunlight and natural ventilation for controlling infection: historical and current perspectives. J Hosp Infect
2013;84:271–282. doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2013.04.011.
Hobday RA. Sunlight therapy
and solar architecture. Med Hist 1997 Oct;41(4):455–72. doi:10.1017/s0025727300063043.
Gruber-Bzura BM. Vitamin D and
influenza-prevention or therapy? Int J Mol Sci 2018 Aug 16;19(8). pii: E2419. doi: 10.3390/ijms19082419.
Costantini C, Renga G,
Sellitto F, et al. Microbes in the era of circadian medicine. Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2020 Feb 5;10:30.
doi: 10.3389/fcimb.2020.00030.
Sengupta S, Tang SY, Devine JC
et al. Circadian control of lung inflammation in influenza infection. Nat Commun 2019 Sep 11;10(1):4107. doi:
10.1038/s41467–019–11400–9.
Jester BJ, Uyeki TM, Patel A,
Koonin L, Jernigan DB. 100 Years of medical countermeasures and pandemic influenza preparedness. Am J Public
Health. 2018 Nov;108(11):1469–1472. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304586.
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claps
Dr. Richard Hobday is an internationally recognized authority on health
in the built environment.
I see nothing wrong with testing Hyrodroxychloroquine together with azithromycin as long as
its done safely and ethically to gain additional data. If it doesn't work, it doesn't work.
A lot of people are going to reject it just because it came from Trump's mouth. Drug
companies will fight against it because they'd rather sell more expensive drugs.
Anti malaria drugs are part of the primary or secondary treatment recommendations in China
and Korea. I'm pretty sure they were used in Japan as well so the first half of it
(hydroxychloroquine) seems pretty legit though maybe not effective enough. Lets see what
happens. I'd agree we lack sufficient data to make an adequate evaluation. Hydroxychloroquine
is also being used with other things in trials. We'll see what happens there too.
** A dutch professor has announced an aerosol version of i believe hydroxycholoquine but
it might just be chloroquine that is able to penetrate the lungs they claim. They also claim
it can be manufactured immediately.
We should all certainly be skeptical of such a small study (HCQ and azithromycin) but do keep
in mind that you really can't trust industry and their legion of paid doctors and experts
either.
For example:
The CEO of Ericsson once said "CDMA will never work." Maybe that was because Ericsson
didn't have it working for cellular systems at the time. I worked in the cell phone industry
as an analyst for some time. People say anything to sell their stuff. I'm sure pharma is
equally bad.
ted01 "No money for big pharma therefore no interest. They would rather let people die."
That is about it. A dirt cheap generic drug can't possibly be any good. A pity so many
here prefer to believe big pharma rather than the frontline doctors using it.
Chinese doctors Chloroquine or Chloroquine Phosphate - Formula C18H26ClN3
Trump Hydroxychloroquine - Formula C18H26ClN3O
Two different chemicals but I take it their mode of action is similar.
Hydroxychloroquine
"The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$4.65 per month as of 2015, when
used for rheumatoid arthritis or lupus.[7] In the United States the wholesale cost of a month
of treatment is about US$25 as of 2020" (wikipedia)
Chloroquine Phosphate
"The wholesale cost in the developing world is about US$0.04.[9] In the United States, it
costs about US$5.30 per dose." (wikipedia)
Easy to see why Trump and big phama don't like Chloroquine.
This from link @ Richard Steven Hack | Mar 22 2020 8:55 utc | 114
"chloroquine was highly effective in reducing viral replication, with an Effective
Concentration (EC)90 of 6.90 μM that can be easily achievable with standard dosing,
due to its favourable penetration in tissues, including in the lung"
>>>
Brasco_Aad
@Brasco_Aad
Israeli Pharmaceutical Company Teva to send 10 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to the
United states, free of charge. | The Times of Israel
Quote Tweet
Brasco_Aad
@Brasco_Aad
· Mar 20
-significant-
Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis to donate 130 million doses of hydroxychloroquine
to the United States.
50 million doses now and another 80 million doses by the end of may.
Chloroquine I have noticed is also called chloroquine phosphate. Phosphate I believe is the
binder that holds the chloroquine powder in tablet form. According to the paper linked by RSH
@114 there is 300mg of chloroquine in a 500mg chloroquine phosphate tablet.
Here's a pretty good overview on the major avenues to attack nCOV/COVID-19 from a treatment
perspective: Ars
Technica overview
In particular, this article talks about targeting different aspects of the nCOV life cycle
and how these are targeted by treatments to attack nCOV:
1) Reproduction: remdesivir and others
2) [viral] protein processing: protease inhibitors such as HIV drugs
3) [viral] packaging: attack the final protein packaging of the virus such as a Hep B
treatment - but very few such examples exist, of any kind
4) viral shell: plasma distilled from existing recovered victims used to prime immune system
of ongoing infected. Vaccines will eventually enable this via manufacturing processes.
5) new infection capability: chloroquines. In particular
One of these targets is the drop in pH. This is the step that's targeted by chloroquine,
the antimalarial drug. Chloroquine can cross membranes and so can enter the sac containing
the virus. Once there, it can neutralize the pH.
That's significant, because many proteases are only active at lower pH. If the pH inside
the sac doesn't change, it's possible that the coronavirus spike protein won't be cut and
thus won't be activated. This appears to be the case in cultured cells infected by the
virus, and there are anecdotal case reports of chloroquine helping COVID-19 patients.
It is also clear - from this description - why evolutionary pressures could create defenses
against this type of attack (chloroquine pH change)
Again, a theoretical operation, even the clinical test tube trials, doesn't equate to
effective therapy.
However, IMO, the cost and risk factor for chloroquines makes for a far better gambit than
anything else at this moment in time. And note that because of the way chloroquines are
supposed to affect nCOV - if chloroquines work, they have to be taken when symptoms
first appear or potentially even as a preventative.
I would discourage the preventative use though - that will likely accelerate the nCOV
evolution around the chloroquine pH attack.
Another reason: it appears the US only has 160,000 ventilators available
Johns Hopkins estimate
of which a bit under 30K are being used for neonatal/pediatric care.
Yow.
hydroxycloroquine overdose, the boffins say, can destroy the retina of the eyes.
Not a trivial side effect. Nothing to play with. Fer what it worth, better read up on the
drug and pay attention. Eyes are nice to have.
Overdose of Q is Bad.
Wally read 60 years ago in Rome newspaper story that British air-line pilots, who drank
their Gin an' Tonics, had been discovered to have very poor glare recovery. That, they said,
was from the quinine in the tonic water. Henceforth, they were forbidden the tonic water,
alas!
But Wally never drives at night and his airplane days ended back in the mists...
But she sees this China-bashing as mostly a political reaction:
In reality these people are rallying behind the campaign to blame China for the health
crisis they're now facing because they understand that otherwise the blame will land
squarely on the shoulders of their president, who's running for re-election this year.
instead of a deliberate Deep-State strategy (which is my view).
We can argue who created the virus (I'm still looking for any rebuttal to the Chinese
claim that USA must be the source because it has all five strains of the virus), but the
Empire's gaming of the virus outbreak seems very clear to me.
Last night watched CGTN TV with Huawei Honor smartphone.
"....team from SW China's Sichuan Province leaves Wuhan today...brings you this
bittersweet goodbye."
- Worked 8-12hrs shift.... 100 plus medical workers, 57 days ago leaving spouse, children and
parents behinds
- Initially none or limited N95 masks - wore double for protection..
- In capitalist USA.... Fxxk the company or country, Strike, protests...
- 16 makeshift hospitals disbanded but two 16,000 beds still in operations.
Equivalent respirator standards by country
. N95 (United States NIOSH-42CFR84)
• FFP2 (Europe EN 149-2001)
• KN95 (China GB2626-2006)
• P2 (Australia/New Zealand AS/NZA 1716:2012)
• Korea 1st class (Korea KMOEL - 2017-64)
• DS (Japan JMHLW-Notification 214, 2018)
I just received an email from a contact in China offering to help get FFP2 respirators if
I needed or wanted any. She said KN95 were virtually non existent in China but there are
limited supplies of the FFP2 respirators.
If you or anyone else is interested in masks / respirators I would recommend watching the
videos by weaponsandstuff93 on YouTube. I am no expert on the subject but on his
recommendation I got myself a mask that takes 40mm NATO filters ( the mask is a Belgium BEM4
) and some P3 level filters ( mine are Scott Pros ) this is different to 40MM GOST filters
which were the Soviet standard.
Make your own face masks? Pfff...it appears the Japanese found a better idea from the
Philippines government...
panties . OR, you could order a custom one from Pantsu Mask . ROFL
Returning to the Covid-19 epidemic and the way governments are reacting to it, Thierry
Meyssan stresses that the authoritarian decisions of Italy and France have no medical
justification. They contradict the observations of the best infectiologists and the instructions
of the World Health Organization.
In all of its messages, the WHO stressed : the low demographic impact of the epidemic; the
futility of border closures; the ineffectiveness of wearing gloves, masks (except for health
care workers) and certain "barrier measures" (for example, the distance of one metre only makes
sense with infected people, but not with healthy people); the need to raise the level of
hygiene, including hand washing, water disinfection and increased ventilation of confined
spaces. Finally, use disposable tissues or, failing that, sneeze into your elbow.
However, the WHO is not a medical organization, but a United Nations agency dealing with
health issues. Its officials, even if they are doctors, are also and above all politicians. It
cannot therefore denounce the abuses of certain states. Furthermore, since the controversy over
the H1N1 epidemic, the WHO must publicly justify all its recommendations. In 2009, it was
accused of having let itself be swayed by the interests of big pharmaceutical companies and of
having hastily sounded the alarm in a disproportionate manner [ 4 ]. This time it used the word
"pandemic" only as a last resort, on March 12th, four months later.
"... the Iranian population is the world's most lung-weakest. Almost all men over the age of sixty suffer from the after-effects of the US combat gases used by the Iraqi army during the First Gulf War (1980-88), as did the Germans and the French after the First World War. Any traveller to Iran has been struck by the number of serious lung ailments. ..."
"... The Diamond Princess is an Israeli-American ship, owned by Micky Arison, brother of Shari Arison, the richest woman in Israel. The Arisons are turning this incident into a public relations operation. The Trump administration and several other countries airlifted their nationals to be quarantined at home. The international press devoted its headlines to this story. Referring to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1919, it asserts that the epidemic could spread throughout the world and potentially threaten the human species with extinction [ 2 ]. This apocalyptic hypothesis, not based on any facts, will nevertheless become the word of the Gospel. ..."
"... It is not known at this time whether tycoons deliberately spread panic about Covid-19, making this vulgar epidemic seem like the "end of the world". However, one distortion after another, governments have become involved. Of course, it is no longer a question of selling advertising screens by frightening people, but of dominating populations by exploiting this fear. ..."
"... Let us remember that never in history has the confinement of a healthy population been used to fight a disease. Above all, let us remember that this epidemic will have no significant consequences in terms of mortality. ..."
"... The two governments panic their populations by distributing unnecessary instructions disavowed by infectious diseases doctors: they encourage people to wear gloves and masks in all circumstances and to keep at least one metre away from any other human being. ..."
"... It is too early to say what real goal the Conte and Macron governments are pursuing. The only thing that is certain is that it is not a question of fighting Covid-19. ..."
Returning to the Covid-19 epidemic and the way governments are reacting to it, Thierry
Meyssan stresses that the authoritarian decisions of Italy and France have no medical
justification. They contradict the observations of the best infectiologists and the
instructions of the World Health Organization.
The Chinese Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, came to lead the operations in Wuhan and restore
the "celestial mandate" on January 27, 2020.
On November 17, 2019, the first case of a person infected with Covid-19 was diagnosed in
Hubei Province, China. Initially, doctors tried to communicate the seriousness of the disease,
but clashed with regional authorities. It was only when the number of cases increased and the
population saw the seriousness of the disease that the central government intervened.
This epidemic is not statistically significant. It kills very few people, although those it
does kill experience terrible respiratory distress.
Since ancient times, in Chinese culture, Heaven has given a mandate to the Emperor to govern
his subjects [ 1 ]. When he withdraws it, a disaster
strikes the country: epidemic, earthquake, etc. Although we are in modern times, President XI
felt threatened by the mismanagement of the Hubei regional government. The Council of State
therefore took matters into its own hands. It forced the population of Hubei's capital, Wuhan,
to remain confined to their homes. Within days, it built hospitals; sent teams to each house to
take the temperature of each inhabitant; took all potentially infected people to hospitals for
testing; treated those infected with chloroquine phosphate and sent others home; and treated
the critically ill with recombinant interferon Alfa 2B (IFNrec) for resuscitation. This vast
operation had no public health necessity, other than to prove that the Communist Party still
has the heavenly mandate.
During a press conference on Covid-19, the Iranian Deputy Minister of Health, Iraj
Harirchi, appeared contaminated.
Propagation in Iran
The epidemic spreads from China to Iran in mid-February 2020. These two countries have been
closely linked since ancient times. They share many common cultural elements. However, the
Iranian population is the world's most lung-weakest. Almost all men over the age of sixty
suffer from the after-effects of the US combat gases used by the Iraqi army during the First
Gulf War (1980-88), as did the Germans and the French after the First World War. Any traveller
to Iran has been struck by the number of serious lung ailments.
When air pollution in Tehran increased beyond what they could bear, schools and government
offices were closed and half of the families moved to the countryside with their grandparents.
This has been happening several times a year for thirty-five years and seems normal.
The government and parliament are almost exclusively composed of veterans of the Iraq-Iran
war, that is, people who are extremely fragile in relation to Covid-19. So when these groups
were infected, many personalities developed the disease.
In view of the US sanctions, no Western bank covers the transport of medicines. Iran found
itself unable to treat the infected and care for the sick until the UAE broke the embargo and
sent two planes of medical equipment.
People who would not suffer in the other country died from the first coughs due to the
wounds in their lungs. As usual, the government closed schools. In addition, it deprogrammed
several cultural and sporting events, but did not ban pilgrimages. Some areas have closed
hotels to prevent the movement of sick people who can no longer find hospitals close to their
homes.
Quarantine in Japan
On February 4, 2020, a passenger on the US cruise ship Diamond Princess was diagnosed ill
from the Covid-19 and ten passengers were infected. The Japanese Minister of Health, Katsunobu
Kato, then imposed a two-week quarantine on the ship in Yokohama in order to prevent the
contagion from spreading to his country. In the end, out of the 3,711 people on board, the vast
majority of whom are over 70 years old, there would be 7 deaths.
The Diamond Princess is an Israeli-American ship, owned by Micky Arison, brother of Shari
Arison, the richest woman in Israel. The Arisons are turning this incident into a public
relations operation. The Trump administration and several other countries airlifted their
nationals to be quarantined at home. The international press devoted its headlines to this
story. Referring to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1919, it asserts that the epidemic could
spread throughout the world and potentially threaten the human species with extinction [
2 ]. This
apocalyptic hypothesis, not based on any facts, will nevertheless become the word of the
Gospel.
We remember that in 1898, William Hearst and Joseph Pulitzer, in order to increase the sales
of their daily newspapers, published false information in order to deliberately provoke a war
between the United States and the Spanish colony of Cuba. This was the beginning of "yellow
journalism" (publishing anything to make money). Today it is called "fake news".
It is not known at this time whether tycoons deliberately spread panic about Covid-19,
making this vulgar epidemic seem like the "end of the world". However, one distortion after
another, governments have become involved. Of course, it is no longer a question of selling
advertising screens by frightening people, but of dominating populations by exploiting this
fear.
For the WHO Director, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, China and South Korea have set an
example by generalising screening tests; a way of saying that the Italian and French methods
are medical nonsense.
WHO intervention
The World Health Organization (WHO), which monitored the entire operation, noted the spread
of the disease outside China. On February 11th and 12th, it organized a global forum on
research and innovation on the epidemic in Geneva. At the forum, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros
Adhanom Ghebreyesus called in very measured terms for global collaboration [ 3 ].
In all of its messages, the WHO stressed : the low demographic impact of the epidemic; the
futility of border closures; the ineffectiveness of wearing gloves, masks (except for health
care workers) and certain "barrier measures" (for example, the distance of one metre only makes
sense with infected people, but not with healthy people); the need to raise the level of
hygiene, including hand washing, water disinfection and increased ventilation of confined
spaces. Finally, use disposable tissues or, failing that, sneeze into your elbow.
However, the WHO is not a medical organization, but a United Nations agency dealing with
health issues. Its officials, even if they are doctors, are also and above all politicians. It
cannot therefore denounce the abuses of certain states. Furthermore, since the controversy over
the H1N1 epidemic, the WHO must publicly justify all its recommendations. In 2009, it was
accused of having let itself be swayed by the interests of big pharmaceutical companies and of
having hastily sounded the alarm in a disproportionate manner [ 4 ]. This time it used the word
"pandemic" only as a last resort, on March 12th, four months later.
At the Franco-Italian summit in Naples on February 27, the French and Italian presidents,
Giuseppe Conte and Emmanuel Macron, announced that they would react together to the
pandemic.
Instrumentation in Italy and France
Modern propaganda should not be limited to the publication of false news as the United
Kingdom did to convince its people to enter the First World War, but should also be used in the
same way as Germany did to convince its people to fight in the Second World War. The recipe is
always the same: to exert psychological pressure to induce subjects to voluntarily practice
acts that they know are useless, but which will lead them to lie [ 5 ]. For example, in 2001, it was
common knowledge that those accused of hijacking planes on 9/11 were not on the passenger
boarding lists. Yet, in shock, most accepted without question the inane accusations made by FBI
Director Robert Muller against "19 hijackers". Or, as is well known, President Hussein's Iraq
had only old Soviet Scud launchers with a range of up to 700 kilometers, but many Americans
caulked the windows and doors of their homes to protect themselves from the deadly gases with
which the evil dictator was going to attack America. This time, in the case of the Covid-19, it
is the voluntary confinement in the home that forces the person who accepts it to convince
himself of the veracity of the threat.
Let us remember that never in history has the confinement of a healthy population been
used to fight a disease. Above all, let us remember that this epidemic will have no significant
consequences in terms of mortality.
In Italy, the first step was to isolate the contaminated regions according to the principle
of quarantine, and then to isolate all citizens from each other, which follows a different
logic.
According to the President of the Italian Council, Giuseppe Conte, and the French President,
Emmanuel Macron, the aim of confining the entire population at home is not to overcome the
epidemic, but to spread it out over time so that the sick do not arrive at the same time in
hospitals and saturate them. In other words, it is not a medical measure, but an exclusively
administrative one. It will not reduce the number of infected people, but will postpone it in
time.
In order to convince the Italians and the French of the merits of their decision, Presidents
Conte and Macron first enlisted the support of committees of scientific experts. While these
committees had no objection to people staying at home, they had no objection to people going
about their business. Then Chairs Conte and Macron made it mandatory to have an official form
to go for a walk. This document on the letterheads of the respective ministries of the interior
is drawn up on honour and is not subject to any checks or sanctions.
The two governments panic their populations by distributing unnecessary instructions
disavowed by infectious diseases doctors: they encourage people to wear gloves and masks in all
circumstances and to keep at least one metre away from any other human being.
The French "reference daily" (sic) Le Monde, Facebook France and the French Ministry of
Health undertook to censor a video of Professor Didier Raoult, one of the world's most renowned
infectiologists, because by announcing the existence of a proven drug in China against
Covid-19, he highlighted the lack of a medical basis for the measures taken by President Macron
[ 6 ].
It is too early to say what real goal the Conte and Macron governments are pursuing. The
only thing that is certain is that it is not a question of fighting
Covid-19.
I urge everyone to read the first article that is linked. What is happening this year is
decidedly NOT a unique phenomenon for Italy or elsewhere that has been cited below. You might
call it an acceleration or culmination or "perfect storm" but this is not a unique situation.
I wish to stress the following:
Estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza
epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons in Italy.
Anyone remember a global outcry about these excess deaths during any of these years?
Pollution; The Po river contains some of the worst waste from industrial pig farms
upriver. The air quality in the Po River Valley is some of the worst only behind an area in
Poland where they still use coal fired power plants in overall poor quality.
The people in N Italy have been subjected to constant bombardment of this pollution which
destroys their respiratory functions and weakens their immune systems- a perfect milieu for
viruses to proliferate. The same is true for those in N China and Tehran. Tehran's air
quality has deteriorated dramatically since the US sanctions as they have gone to using a
cheaper gas, laced with sulfur, to provide fuel for their people.
Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe,
which has already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past
and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic.
According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age
of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased
are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.
The Italian Institute of Health moreover distinguishes between those who died from the
coronavirus and those who died with the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear
whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a
combination of both.
This is not a coincidence that these environmental factors have created a milieu in which
all sorts of diseases can proliferate. Now capitalism will come up with the magic bullet like
a vaccine or a pill to "fix" the problem- rinse and repeat if the current social order/forms
of production aren't radically changed.
A virus which impacts upper respiratory functions attacking those who are vulnerable due
to years of having their upper respiratory systems assaulted non-stop by heavy doses of
pollutants of all varieties- that's what we are seeing. None of this is new except to the
degree. In all the areas listed below, N Italy, N China, Madrid, Tehran they have been
experiencing a dramatic increase in upper respiratory disease for years now.
And please don't tell me the solution is some vaccination or some great new cure that will
be discovered (and profited from) by the miraculous men of modern medicine. The solution is
to clean up the environment so that we are not vulnerable in the first place. Without that
prepare for COVID-20 the sequel or whatever name the thoroughly bought off WHO and CDC
and...wish to place upon this next "pandemic."
Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during
recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons)
In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the
elderly during the winter season. Influenza epidemics have been indicated as one of the
potential determinants of such an excess.
We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza
epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein
index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with
most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly.
The new study argues that smogs in China contain more ingredients than those found either
in the legendary "pea-soupers" of 19th- and 20th-century Europe and North America or in
modern rich-world, vehicle-generated smogs. Something new is happening: The unprecedented
speed of industrialization and urbanization has combined two eras of pollution.
Investigating air quality status and air pollutant trends over the Metropolitan Area of
Tehran, Iran over the past decade between 2005 and 2014
Overall, trends have been progressed to worsening, the number of healthy days has been
declined and the number of unhealthy days has been increased in recent years.
Tehran is rated as one of the world's most polluted cities. Parts of the city are often
covered by smog, making breathing difficult and causing widespread pulmonary illnesses. ...
According to local officials, 3,600 people died in a single month due to the hazardous air
quality.
Air Pollution, a Silent Form of Death for Tehran Citizens
You don't have to step into the street for Madrid's roads to pose a hazard to your health:
air pollution from cars in the city might just knock you over. Scientists are finding links
between the gases and disease.
......
According to studies by Julio Diaz, a researcher at the Carlos III Health Institute in
Madrid, even small increases in air pollution can cause the number of people admitted to
hospitals with circulatory and respiratory illnesses to rise.
There's much attention being given to how China and South Korea have reacted to the virus,
but amazingly little to the response in Vietnam. The first cases in Vietnam arrived with the
new lunar year, via Wuhan; quite quickly the number of cases rose to sixteen, and for several
weeks stayed at that number. The Vietnamese government acted quickly, strongly and
effectively, until all sixteen recovered (and the district near Hanoi which had been
placed under lockdown had completed their isolation.
On March 2nd a flight from London, carrying a woman who was returning from the Milan fashion
week:
"The country's 17th case, imported on a flight from London, kicked off a new wave of cases,
[now nearing 100].
Even with a new wave of cases, the numbers are far from those witnessed in the western
world. The issue has been taken seriously, with all suffering symptoms put in quarantine and
tested, while their places of residence are locked down and sanitised. Việt Nam was one
of the first nations to declare an epidemic and has been quick in its response, both in
handling current cases and ensuring the spread of the virus is as limited as possible. "
- taken from
https://vietnamnews.vn/life-style/expat-corner/653815/keeping-calm-and-carrying-on-viet-nam-sets-a-coronavirus-example.html
It is notable that almost all cases of infection have been brought into the country, or at
one-person distance from the person bringing it into the country.
Today there has been the announcement of the seventeenth reported recovery in Vietnam. So
far there has been not one death.
Points in the reaction:
Public gatherings were stopped right away - even local community Women's Day lunches.
All citizens and all foreigners are now required to report on health, on recent travel,
etc.
Everyone is now required to wear masks in public places.
Covid-19! H1N1! Names of guns on Call of Duty! Scary! I call it a Cold. The Flu killed many
more than this will 2 years ago. I propose to change the name of the Flu to "Putin Plague".
That will do it.
Russia has 1 death, few cases, a massive border with China, huge numbers of Chinese
tourists, officials, students, etc. India has 4 deaths, a border with China, and many
Chinese. How are any of you buying that?
If this was the end of the world would Putin be almost disinterested in his demeanor?
Would Kadyrov laugh it off on national tv? Are the Russians that stupid or do they know
something?
If this was big, Kadyrov would be in full-action. Special Corona uniform, big guns, lots
of hitting the pads, plenty of screams of Akhmat Sila! Instead, he is complaining that he is
bored because there are no fights to watch.
Let me tell you something that is not being discussed. Millions, yes millions, died from
the Flu a few seasons back. It was horrible. Hospitals could not handle it. Yet, the media
was dead silent. Zero concerns. No mention. It was just a bad Flu season and life went on for
you. Maybe you buried Grandma. Maybe you were dog sick (I was and I had a Flu shot!). What
you did not have was 24/7 hysteria. Hysteria is NEVER good. NEVER.
At the beginning of this year, I suddenly started getting these horrible videos from China
of healthy-looking men falling face down on the street. What the ? Healthy men walking down
the street and then – BAM! Straight down. They went viral. Freaked the Western world
out. Millions and millions of views. We now know that IS NOT the virus. Whoever created those
videos knows more than we do.
–Steps Russia Seems To Be Taking–
If a patient dies make sure to list the cause of death as whatever they were suffering
from (healthy people RARELY die from this) prior to the illness.
Use regional heads (Ramzan!) to dampen any hysteria. Chechens have been told that they
will die eventually why worry about a cold. Go drink some tea. Don't be a wimp. This kind of
talk is dangerous to soft Europeans/Americans, but is part of the Caucasian spirit.
Get the FSB to run EVERYTHING. Rumor is it that the guy in charge of tests has been in
charge of security for Putin. I promise you that the FSB is in total control of all results.
If the numbers look bad – Lie. Slowly add a death here and there. Make sure that it
appears that you did not let anyone die from this because of lack of equipment. This is not a
health issue. This is an actual war. Yes, war. You do what you can medically, you just don't
create mass hysteria. Make sense? Many countries are doing this and will be better off for
this. More lives will be saved because healthy people will not be taking up space that
belongs to the very sick. Hysteria is the last thing you want.
*NOTE* Have you noticed how Russians are furious with Italy while the West cries for them?
The West is furious with China while Russia is happy for them. Topsy turvy world.
There is NO REASON to destroy your country because of this. NONE. Something else is in
play. I can promise you that millions of Americans have it or have had it. The CDC has said
this! There were no testing kits. If there are no testing kits you cannot officially die from
a Call of Duty weapon.
FWIW, Dr. Fauci pretty much threw cold water on the Chloroquine option at today's Trump press
conference, saying that no clinical trials have been conducted and leaving the impression
that he was highly dubious. Again, FWIW.
P.S. I wonder how long Fauci will be welcomed onto that podium.
The American people need to demand the age groups of all the deaths due to the SARS-CoV-2
variant of coronavirus. We will find the highest group that have succumbed to the disease are
60 years and older. I want to see numbers for each State in the Republic, not percentages.
Then peel the onion back further and reveal if the elderly who died had previous pulmonary
problems (e.g. emphysema, COPD, asthma, pulmonary fibrosis, cystic fibrosis, lung cancer,
tuberculous, etc) and what immuno-suppressant medications they were taking.
If in fact it turns out the majority who perish are old people, then the deaths could be
attributed to influenza, which is the epidemic that is going on right now in the country.
There are 29 million people infected and more than 4,500 have died so far with two months to
go in the flu season.
The patients are not being swabbed for influenza and testing for that disease, just
COVID-19. This skews the numbers away from influenza so the media screams every day about
COVID-19.
Whether this virus jumped species or was made in a bath tub, I can't say. What I can do is
count. in 2019 there were 30,000 deaths in the USA attributed to the Flu. Now, here we are in
2020 with the first quarter of the year nearing coming on, and there are less than 75 deaths
traced to ncov19. So, in my estimation maybe we may record 2,000 dead this year.
Is it rational that we're watching our hard earned 401k's tank, self quarantining,
suffering food shortages, told to distance, avoid our neighbors, and panic over what is
little more than the common cold?
Why must the President address the nation every morning with the Dow Jones numbers
flashing in sync? Why are people in hazmat suits poking around our cities spreading fear, and
asking inane questions such as: do you have a cough, have you recently been to Iran, China,
N. Korea or Iran? I was screened at my local VA hospital on the March 13th, and those were
the questions asked of me. After saying negative a purple wrist ban was put on me and I was
allowed access.
This all reminds me of the movie 'Citizen Kane'. For those old enough to remember it Orson
Welles played the owner of a major newspaper. One day his headline read "WAR DECLARED IN
(some fictitious country)" Consequently, the President of said fictitious country called the
editor by phone, and complained that the paper had it wrong, and there wasn't any war going
on in his country, and how could he. However, Orson responded quite cavalierly with something
on the order of; "Why of course there is a war, because I said there is"
This theatre has gone far enough.
1918 Spanish Flu. WWI ongoing. 675 , 000 deaths in US (300K excess deaths based on
mortality stats published at the time) , 15 million estimated worldwide deaths in 7 months.
No significant impact on GDP due to war
1950-1952 Polio peak panic-Korean War. No significant economic impact. 16,000 paralysis
cases, 3000 deaths annually (mostly children)
1957 -58 influenza pandemic- over 100 K deaths in half the population. Significant
recession in 1958 following Eisenhower's cutting DOD spending. Cold War ramped up to boost
spending. Business as usual for most people during the pandemic
1968 influenza pandemic, over 100k dead, peak Vietnam War, no significant economic
impact
1976 Swine Flu- minimal deaths (dozens) Public health induced hype led to 45 million
rushed to market vaccines. 450 people got Guillain-Barré syndrome from vaccines
causing paralysis . No serious economic impact, business as usual except for vaccination
2003 SARS outbreak. Panic in China/Asia, 800 deaths. Significant economic disruption to
Greater China region due to travel bans and quarantine measures. Iraq war began at same time.
No economic impact in US
2009 H1N1 Pandemic. 12,000 estimated deaths in US. CDC recommended against testing in
July. Not much panic. Country already in recession due to subprime crash. Obamacare passed in
December. Arab spring followed. US government bought 229 million doses of vaccine mostly
unused. Former CDC director hired by Merck probably got a nice bonus. Total cost 4 billion.
About 2 billion went for vaccines,
2019- virus starts to spread in China starting from November 17. A month after Event 201 .
This was attended by Dr Gao of China CDC. China covers up initially then began limited
testing reporting few cases until January 18 when they expanded testing and cases spiked. .
Did not quarantine Wuhan until Jan 23 allowing millions to leave city for other locations due
to up upcoming Lunar New Year Holidays when everything shuts down fir 1-2 weeks anyways.
Significant economic disruption and depression follow as West inflates panic among citizens
with the help of MSM and altmedia to gain support for adopting Chinas draconian measures and
curtailment of freedoms, with censorship sure to follow. Can another war to lift the West out
of depression be far behind, or will that war be fought against the bottom 90% after
lightbulbs go off and they realize they got played.
Experimental DNA changing vaccines being rushed to market. Total cost for everything will
be tens of trillions. Thats a lot of pork. Helicopter money coming soon. Freedom and
Democracy will be a pipe dream. That was Trumps role all along, to put the finishing touches
on a 120 year program to destroy Democracy and replace it with an Elitist Dictatorship ruled
by Philosopher Kings and Corporate Technocrats and enforced by the Military.
... that USA and the West were unprepared because China withheld information about the
virus.
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 19 2020 18:20 utc | 106
The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on COVID-19" states that China transparently
reported the identification of virus to the WHO and the international community on January
3rd, and a WHO investigative team was invited to Wuhan a week after that.
From January 3rd, 2020, information on COVID-19 cases has been reported to WHO daily.
On January 7th, full genome sequences of the new virus were shared with WHO and the
international community immediately after the pathogen was identified.
On January 10th, an expert group involving Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwanese technical
experts and a World Health Organization team was invited to visit Wuhan.
To make a just evaluation of the health danger of Covid-19 it could be useful to make a
computerized simulation model based on the data from an influenza virus seasonal outbreak
some years ago,but with the actual medical extended reaction to it like testing on a bigger
scale then normally.(I don't even know how it is ,in normal wintertime flu.
I guess the numbers tested equal those who seek medical help,or maybe they test all
citizens taking part in the free government proposed vaccination,that pretty soon follows the
outbreak(how do they find the vaccin so quickly?)) improvising hospitals and other medical
stuff.And also take in account the appreciation of the illness by the general public.The high
number of medical staff that went ill after weeks of treating patients with it seems not to
be an annual affair.The outcome should make clear the real danger ratio of Covid-19.
Still pondering over those Italian deaths. Average said to be 81 years.10% over 90 years
old.90 % over 70 years old.Nobody died from it under seventy years old?
The governments's reactions to CV are another chapter.
Nowadays governments are mainly made up of incompetent empire-compatibles. In the same way
the empire gets away with bombing away poor people, those incompetents get away with every
single stupidity they commit. They rarely step down. When they do they are sure to find an
even better con-job;(Cf.Christine Lagarde,van der Leyen and so many others)
The general public accepts incompetence, so the politicians know they can do anything
their overlord wants them to. They are shouted at some times, made fun of in accomplice
media, ridiculized by the workers, they don't care.
In the evening they have their ration of high quality cocaine and they are feeling very
special when they look down upon you common plebs next morning. Incompetence is the excuse of
the century, but not a reason to loose the job.
A third question that I want to raise.
So it was in Wuhan in September 2019 that the World Military Games were held. I never
heard of before, but yeah its just a sportive meeting between army personal from all over the
world, in an olympic spirit I wager.
Then it seems there was on the same day the opening of something called Event 201 said to
be a simulation (Real time?computer game,Viral!?) of a virus outbreak.OK. So what?
I don't want to look myself into this, because I've never liked Bill Gates, who did this,
but I like to know from more inquisitive barflies ,if such a thing has really taken place.
How long did it last? What was the outcome? And has this study been taken in account by
government officials, be it in the USA or abroad?
Because what if there was really nothing, just the announcement?
I vaguely recall the polio era. There was a fair amount of panic. I remember lining up in the
school gymnasium with everyone else in town to get a dose of oral vaccine. My father had a
friend with a leg damaged by polio. He played slide guitar in a Country & Western band.
I don't remember lockdowns or anything like that. Other than polio and tuberculosis, maybe
epidemics were more accepted 60 years ago? Everyone got measles, mumps, chicken pox. That's
just the way it was. I don't think most people thought about it much; too busy trying to make
a living, just like nowadays.
Here's a
report on the current war against the unseen enemy . The question about polio is relevant
IMO, but for a vastly different reason than what the OP likely had in mind. At the time, the
ongoing war against the unseen enemy was taken very seriously as it affected all
classes and especially city dwellers.
Recall for centuries the Miasma Theory of Disease and related piety and fear of god were
the primary explanations for the unexplainable. That dogma was challenged by a Persian
scholar in the mid 1000s when the Arab world was where genuine science was being pursued
while the West went looking for Devils, witches and heretics, but even the Arab world
couldn't accept what we now know to be the truth of the matter.
We needed to await the arrival of microscopes and Bacteriology to establish the Germ
Theory of Disease in 1870. Death was everywhere and quite powerful.
I recall the average life expectancy for Philadelphia in 1740 to be 20--lots of early
childhood and child bearing deaths--with little differentiation between the slowly growing
urban regions within the Colonies.
Charlestown was the worst with its residents abandoning the city during Summer.
FDR was the first genuinely handicapped POTUS, but he tried his best to conceal his
disability. My Maternal Grandfather was kept stateside in 1918 thanks to the flu epidemic,
while his cousin wasn't so lucky and died in the trenches, his mother never forgave my
Maternal Grandmother for Fate's result.
While dated (2010)
this graphic illustrates the top 15 Communicable Diseases. Some will find this essay on the use
of quarantine helpful by providing some historical context to the ongoing war against the
unseen world.
There was no quarantine. They closed beaches. Told people to no go into the water. That
was for a summer or two at most.
I don't recall anything else. A kid up the street got it. He was a hell of an athlete but
wound up with a brace on one leg. He was away fro some time and his return was the only sign
that polio was really bad.
People were deathly afraid of the first vaccine, injected. Dr. Salk invented that first
vaccine.
The Oral Vaccine really changed everything. Dr. Sabin changed the paradigm and saved several
generations.
@FB I, too, have been disappointed in Tucker Carlson's China bashing. I have thought that
he was the best on FOX News, but now he is getting to be as bad as Sean Hannity.
We may never know the origin of the coronavirus. It is foolish to try and assign blame at
this point.
@follyofwar Well, as the Cheyenne used to say, "It's a good day to die". If the ones who
think they can rule over others push it too far," then the the sun will shine upon a good day
to die". I remember that line from the novel "Little Big Man".
It used to be part of the American ethos, the idea that it's better to die on your feet
than to live on your knees. Levon Helm wrote a line in a song in the '80s: "You give your
life to live your life". Some of us still see it that way.
There are so many scenarios. I haven't read all of the comments, so what I'm about to say
may already have been touched on.
1. The virus happened naturall y, transferred from a bat and eventually to
humans.
2. The virus accidentally escaped the Wuhan lab.
3. The globalists did it. The globalists (the Chinese elite in concert with the
U.S. multinational corporate elite) don't want things to change as both groups of elites are
getting filthy rich off of the offshoring of jobs to China.
Trump is a nationalist. He is upsetting their apple cart as he's placing tariffs on the
goods manufactured in China by the U.S. multinational corporations, trying to force the U.S.
multinationals to come back home. They don't want to, so they manufactured the virus thinking
it would bring down the economy/stock market, thereby bringing down Trump.
China plays along, feigns ignorance, and accuses the U.S. of trying to infect their
citizens, Xi wears a mask. A few thousand old people dying is a small price to pay, in their
minds.
4. The U.S. multinational corporate elite did it alone, without China's knowledge ,
for the same reasons as stated in #3, to throw a wrench in the works, purposely sink the
economy. With Trump gone, globalism could continue.
5. The U.S. did it alone, without China's knowledge. The U.S. globalists realize
globalism is ending and they have acquiesced to the U.S. nationalists. They are angry that
China has not followed through with their part of the original deal, which is that China gets
the offshored jobs, their elite get rich, and they get money to modernize, but she must open
up more to the U.S. corporations and financial firms, which she has been reluctant to do.
6. The nationalists did it in order to bring down globalism, put an end to it once and
for all . Once people realize that supply lines (especially pharmaceuticals) thousands of
miles away is a recipe for disaster, they'll scream for things to be changed. Trump has said
he likes President Xi and the Chinese people, this is nothing personal, but he wants the jobs
to return.
7. China did it alone . The Chinese elite realize that globalism is ending, and
they know the Chinese citizens will blame them for the loss of their jobs. The Chinese elite
worry that the citizens will wonder why they've become filthy rich and they haven't. The
Chinese elite plant the virus, but blame it on the U.S.
8. The world elites, in collusion with the central banks, have blown massive financial
bubbles. They realize they can't continue blowing the bubbles any bigger, but they don't see
any way out without being blamed. They plant the virus in order to bring down the world
economy, deflate the bubble. The virus takes the blame, not them. China blames the U.S.,
the U.S. blames China, some old people are sacrificed, and they raise a glass to the
devil.
... I don't know whether you realise how the rest of the world is feeling at the moment:
people are stunned as if the Apocalypse has come. They are worried about their very survival,
and things are only going to get worse because the containment, lockdown, military special
powers will likely extend for weeks and months ahead, as it will take months to gain control
over the epidemic.
The Chinese have officially accused the US to have, at a minimum, covered up early
Covid-19 infections that took place in America several weeks before the epidemic broke out in
Wuhan.
Separate Japanese and Taiwanese epidemiologists have previously determined that only
the US had the five strains of Coronavirus that could have generated the Covid-19:
@Ron Unz Too many Americans are stuck on Pax Americana la la land and will never admit
something so grave to American status. We saw exactly this during 9/11.
Well, I think there's a certain amount of circumstantial evidence suggesting that the
Coronavirus outbreak may have been an American bioweapon attack against China (and Iran).
But if so, I'm *extremely* skeptical that the perpetrators ever intended or imagined that
it would leak back into the US and inflict the horrific economic and social damage that now
seems unavoidable. How to explain this lack lack of foresight?
The most obvious answer is that they were stupid and incompetent, but here's another
point to consider
In late 2002 there was the outbreak of SARS in China, a related virus but that was far
more deadly and somewhat different in other characteristics. The virus killed hundreds of
Chinese and spread into a few other countries before it was controlled and stamped out. The
impact on the US and Europe was negligible, with just a small scattering of cases and only
a death or two.
So if American biowarfare analysts were considering a Coronavirus attack against China,
isn't it quite possible they would have said to themselves that since SARS never
significantly leaked back into the US or Europe, we'd similarly remain insulated from the
Coronavirus?
Obviously, such an analysis was foolish and mistaken, but would it have seemed so
implausible at the time?
Well, I have only recently heard of a guy named Francis Boyle,a law professor out of the
Univ. Of Illinois. He is apparently an expert on bio-warfare treaties. He claims covid-19 is
manmade,period.
That is a very scary notion,from which most people will flee.
As I have accepted that 9/11 was "the usual suspects," I guess it is definitely possible.
@Ron Unz Maybe, but my take is an engineered market crash. This looks to me like a Nathan
Rothschild sort of trick (according to legend) – propagating fake news about Napoleon's
victory at Waterloo, crashing the markets, then snapping up the whole LSE for a penny to the
pound. If so, you have to admire it, the sheer genius, the psychopathic beauty of it all.
As a bonus, the Reichstag Fire also is an extremely efficient delivery system for the
eugenics payload – a very virulent strain that almost exclusively targets the social
burden (pensioners and already ill) while leaving alone the tax-farm base! Never in the
history of tax-farming have the sheeple been stampeded and fleeced so thoroughly! Bravo!
The US is the customer, with the enormous trade deficit. Trump has been hugely effective
with his tariff's policy in rehoming manufacturing to the US – a process that will
vastly accelerate thanks to the Corona virus outbreak.
I agree that 9-11 stink to high heaven and that PNAC are unmitigated bastards, but this
capitulation to China is balls.
@Ron Unz Stupidity is certainly an American Military essential behavior for promotion and
success in the current US Armed Forces.
But you can't have someone clever enough to create a Recombinant Designer Pathogen and be
in the US Military.
However, the psyops fucks would likely be ready to game the system should a natural
outbreak occur which would be called a Pandemic even when its not and make everyone of our
low quality leaders $hit their pants and go totally crazy. A mild fart with the claim its
poison gas would make the Stock Markets Collapse.
But if so, I'm *extremely* skeptical that the perpetrators ever intended or imagined
that it would leak back into the US and inflict the horrific economic and social damage
that now seems unavoidable. How to explain this lack lack of foresight?
This is the same issue with cyberwar viruses. One can infect computers in Iran, but with
the internet they may be passed onto the entire world, just like rap music.
But if so, I'm *extremely* skeptical that the perpetrators ever intended or imagined
that it would leak back into the US and inflict the horrific economic and social damage
that now seems unavoidable. How to explain this lack lack of foresight?
One word: Trump. Because he could very well lose his reelection bid if the pandemic causes
an economic recession which now seems highly likely given the stock market collapse.
Cui Bono ? The people OPPOSED to Trump, variously referred to as the "Deep State"
or the "National Security State" as described by Gore Vidal in his book which by the way
Julian Assange was holding while being hauled away from the Ecuadorian Embassy.
After Russiagate and Ukrainegate, THEY finally hit the bullseye with Coronagate.
This is a pretty good article. I'll probably link to it.
Some people think this is coming from City of London types. The US pursued a "strategy of
tension" with China that may have allowed third party actors to intervene and get them
fighting each other.
There has been some Bad Blood between British elites and China for awhile now. It's
not clear why.
In this scheme, the US is the patsy, the Oswald to take the blame.
The real gem in the whole article are the observations made by Yang himself:
YANG: That's what freaks me out about the whole thing. What we're doing is saying things
like, "Keep your social distance," and trying to stop the spread that way, which is fine.
But we have shit for data. Like, we don't know what the infection rate is. And so,
there's no reason we would ever be able to give the 'all-clear.' If you don't have any
data, this whole thing is a nightmare that doesn't end. When you close schools, what gives
you the all-clear to say, "OK, open them again"? Nothing. There's no data to compare it to.
This whole thing is a fear-based approach with no end in sight. There's no catalyst to ever
sound the all-clear. This whole thing is so fucked up.
YANG: I think the nature of that guidance has to be different, personally. I think they
need to be transparent about what kind of data we're relying on, to give people a sense of
the timeline. Right now, our sense of the future is so cloudy. And you get the sense the
president went from not taking this seriously to suddenly realizing its seriousness, and now
we're reacting in various ways to slow the spread of the virus. But then what? I would be
clearer as to what the timeline looks like, what data we're going to rely upon, how we're
going to get that data, what steps we're taking to increase testing capacity and just give
people a sense of the future.
We need to know now what the future can look like under different scenarios and then be
presented with what scenario we're in when that time comes. We've been on lockdown
for half a week. Right now, the American people don't have any visibility into whether it's
going to be four more weeks or four more months, and we don't know how those judgments are
going to determined. As president, I would say, "Look, here's the information, here's the
dashboard, here's what we're lining up, here's what we're hoping for, here's how
circumstances could change, and thank you for doing your part -- if you proceed with like
the rest of the country in flattening the curve and keeping things under this level, then
we can look forward to this. " You know, so we could actually have a sense of
accomplishment and purpose.
So here we have it, replicated throughout the whole of the Western world. An open-ended
clamp-down based on fear, with no timeline or road map, and no conditions set on when (or IF)
things will get back to normal.
For now, smells really fishy. Even if DS (Deep State) did not intentionally engineer this
circumstance, they are decisively and very swiftly exploiting it to exert extreme control
over everything .
@antibeast On the contrary, for the deep state Trump is the ideal puppet. Those
who are against Trump belong to the surface state , i.e. Democrats, Leftists in
general and the equally Leftist main stream media. Real policy in the US is only made by the
deep state .
"The East Asian populations have much higher AFs in the eQTL variants associated with
higher ACE2 expression in tissues (Fig. 1c), which may suggest different susceptibility or
response to 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 from different populations under the similar
conditions."
This is a "we do not know yet", not a "we can exclude".
No lab-generated strain?
The Furin docking cleavage site has not been found yet in any other beta-CoV strain, it is
only known from other completely different viruses and seem to be related there with being
highly contagious. In adition, a recent study found a third docking option via GRP78
expressions on the cell surface (usually by cells experiencing stress), https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-15157/v1
. This is already two strange features more compared to SARS and MERS.
There is only a "there is no proof, neither a direct hint found yet", not a "we can
exclude", but a mere belief.
Most irritating is that there is are not intermediate or other similar strains found yet,
and that there is a strange pattern of first occurences in the early phase in Wuhan (and
probably also in the US). We still have no sound explanation how it came into existence, not
even some plausible facts suggesting a pathway. Given the technical capabilities since 15
years, the multitude of stakeholders working on gene editing, for vaccine research also on
dangerous stains, and some irritating cui bono issues, it is too early to discard some
suspicions already. The scope of potential perpetrators (by accident or intentionally with a
not expected outcome) is broad and - given the very intransparent transnational companies -
quite opaque. In issues of global security and extreme relevance for humanity, transparency
should be enforced and secrecy for corporate interests should not be tolerated in such
cases.
Anyway, most important now is to mitigate the ongoing desaster, we should only not forget
some issues for later investigation.
The argument that cov19 isn't engineered because biowar researchers & the empire that
incubates them are 1. Sane and 2. Indequately funded
Nope, not buying it on either count.
The hegemony has military labs all around the globe (though the Fort Detrick closure is
suspicious).
Even if it weren't engineered, a virus doesn't need to be vat-grown to be politically
useful - anthrax, smallpox and bubonic plague - all natural & deadly pathogens - exist
within bioweapon labs, for research purposes of course.
I am a little doubtful about the wuhan games being the vector - think of the timing, right
before CNY.
Surely a "Diplomat" with a diplomatic bag could have a far wider range of opportunities (via
proxies) for more precise delivery.
An interesting story at Common Dreams
"A look at financial records reveal that Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Sen. Richard
Burr last month -- just as he was big-dollar donors, but not the general public about the
looming threat of the coronavirus -- personal stock holdings worth hundreds of thousands of
dollars, many of them in industries now seriously impacted by the outbreak..."
".....In an audio recording obtained by NPR, the North Carolina Republican was heard
telling donors at a luncheon on Feb. 27 that the coronavirus, officially called COVID-19,
would likely spread through the population aggressively -- and suggested it could kill
hundreds of thousands of people.
"It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent
history," Burr said.
"It is probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic," he added, referring to the flu pandemic
which killed more than 600,000 Americans...."
There is audio here
Really, it is hard stop thinking this was a preplanned event...
Wall Street is pressuring key healthcare firms to hike prices over the coronavirus crisis.
Audio here of bankers asking drug companies, firms supplying N95 masks & ventilators, to
figure out how to profit from the Covid-19 emergency.
Today's Keiser Report declares petrodollar and fiat dollar dead and announces the
world will need to have a confab to arrange a new commercial currency or currency basket.
Other interesting food for thought's discussed. The 2nd half interview is with a metals
broker who says we must demand physical delivery instead of paper because the derivatives
aren't properly reflecting physical price. An item from Shadowstats's Daily Update, "the
February 2020 Cass Freight Index® Continued in Annual Decline for the 15th Straight
Month, Down by 7.5% (-7.5%)," further ongoing confirmation that we've actually been in a
recession for at least that long.
In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, investors who bought "pandemic bonds" from the World
Bank in 2017 are set to lose hundreds of millions of dollars.
It seems people here don't understand the concept of "burden of proof".
Burden of proof arives from a logical necessity. If you treat every hypothesis existent in
the universe for which there are no scientific evidence as a priori true, the it would mean
they are all true at the same time. The same if you treat them as all false.
That, of course, would be a logical fallacy, since contradictory hypotheses would be true
or false at the same time.
That's why the absence of evidence the SARS CoV-2 isn't a bioweapon doesn't make it a
bioweapon. Since we don't know that, that would make, by the same logic, it a bioweapon and a
not-bioweapon at the same time. It is the same fallacy of religion: you can't prove God
doesn't exist (and you really can't, since God is a metaphysical concept, not a physical
one), therefore it must exist in the eyes of the religious.
Except that, in the case here, there is strong evidence the SARS CoV-2 is fruit of
evolution, so I don't even know why people are bringing the opposite hypothesis here without
even a hint of evidence.
"Some Indian researchers found four genome sequences in the novel coronavirus that can also
be found in the HIV virus. They self published their findings in a paper that was not peer
reviewed. We discussed that paper in detail on February 1 in our second post on the virus and
we strongly expressed our doubt about its veracity. A few days later the paper was retracted
by its authors after other scientists had pointed out that the lengths of each of the four
sequences they had compared were way too small to be of statistical significance."
The authors retracted the study temporarily to allow it to be peer reviewed. They did not
concede their results were insignificant. The stated reason for retracting the study from one
of the authors is because the study was being used to promote conspiracy theories that the
virus was intentionally released as weapon since they made no such contention
"Asian people are not more genetically receptive for the novel coronavirus."
Yet the study you linked to states "The East Asian populations have much higher AFs in the
eQTL variants associated with higher ACE2 expression in tissues (Fig. 1c), which may suggest
different susceptibility or response to 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 from different populations under
the similar conditions."
There is zero evidence that the virus is from a Chinese or U.S. or other (weapon) laboratory
and the claim actually makes no sense. The genome of the virus consists of more then 23,000
'letters'. It is significantly different than the genome of other known viruses."
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Actually, its pretty similar to the bat
virus found in 2013 as reported by Shi Zheng Li in January , 2020. And the key word is
"known". How stupid would you have you have to be to publish the sequence data in public
papers of the exact virus that will be used as a weapon before unleashing the virus. Shi
Zhengli was involved in gain of function research for over a decade working with Ralph Baric
at UNC on some research.
If you look at the research thats been done on corona viruses gain of function and corona
virus/ebola/zika virus vaccines you run into the same names a lot, Chinese scientists like
Shi Zhengli, American scientists like Ralph Baric of UNC, Wuhan institute of Virology/BSL-4
lab, ,Duke University and USAMRIID, both of which has ties with Wuhan University-Institute of
Medical Virology all funded by USAMRIID, DARPA, NIAD, BARDA, NIH , chinese military, chinese
CDC, Bill Gates (WHO, Event 201, AMC, CEPI) , and various vaccine makers such as Innovio,
Moderna, NanoViricides, etc, often in collaboration with each other. George Gao of China CDC
attended Event 201.
Look close at Project Bioshield-The Department of Homeland Security uses intelligence
reports to decide which diseases and biological threats are considered "material," or
realistic threats to US security. It then refers these findings to Health and Human Services
(HHS), which determines whether it's necessary for the government to order new drugs from
pharmaceutical companies to combat the threats.
A funding agency within HHS called the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development
Authority (BARDA) hands out lucrative contracts for research, parts of which can be paid up
front.
The parent agency (HHS) in charge of funding drugs and vaccines for the national
stockpile, is also the one that is separately funding research into new diseases that could
result in a bioterror or accidental infection, which would in turn demand a response from the
national stockpile. Sounds like a racket
More on Ralph Baric- also known as the Godfather of Corona Virus due in part to a corona
virus vaccine patent in 2002 as well as his subsequent research. But Dr. Ralph Baric's
lab
is designed to develop drugs against new emerging pathogens focuses on coronaviruses. Baric
and his 30-person team partnered with Gilead Sciences, Inc. six years ago to test antiviral
drugs such as Remdesivir to curb emerging viral diseases that were then largely overlooked by
big pharmaceutical companies.
Gilead Science as you recall struck gold with Tamiflu thanks to Bird Flu scares that
followed after SARS. Also known for its association with Donald Rumsfeld.
Also there is no proof that COVID-19 is "more contagious" either by laboratory analysis or
in fielded studies than influenza. If you know of such a paper, I would appreciate a link
so that I can examine it for myself.
There have been articles posted online about high levels of air pollution in Italy's Po
River valley region, where Lombardia province is located. Do a search on Google or DuckDuckGo
and they appear.
Much of that pollution probably occurs at particular times of the year. Milan is said to
be notorious for temperature inversions, as is Tehran in Iran. These occur in winter-time in
Tehran nearly every year. Cold air sinks under warm air in river valleys or inter-mountain
valleys and plateaux so air is trapped and cannot circulate, trapping pollutants. Milan,
Tehran and probably Wuhan beside the Jiangzi River sit in these kinds of physical
environments.
Italy does seem to have a history of industrial accidents. I have a double CD set of urban
folk by Alessandro Monti, "Unfolk + Live Book", which is partly inspired by an industrial
poisoning incident that occurred somewhere in northern Italy in the 1970s. Can't remember any
details and can't look up now, being on smartphone, but it was a major incident, large
numbers in the vicinity were poisoned, many died and others still struggling with long-term
effects. May have been some form of dioxide poisoning.
The fixation on bats distracts from the important fact, which is that China primarily has one
haplotype (with instances of three others in small counts, including those brought in from
from abroad). The China haplotype is distinct from the Iran one, and the Italy one. Therefore
none of these locations can be the origin, because where the 'parent' of the virus comes from
would also be a place that would have multiple 'children' or haplotypes of the virus. The
only place place that has all five haplotypes is the US. You can talk all day about bats but
that is to ignore the scientific data about haplotypes and the parent-child relationship it
implies.
On the ideological level, I see many comments saying its not racist to talk about Asians
and weird foods. Let me point out that racism is not just discrimination, but discrimination
from a position of power. A black slave cannot be racist against his plantation master no
matter how much he hates him, because his individual 'prejudice' against the master does not
alter the world and its system of prejudice. Racism issues from power, so viruses that
originate from the US or western countries are NOT stigmatized as linked to white people or
white culture, but viruses that originate from Africa or Asia are racially stigmatized. In
any place, there are some people who eat 'weird' food, whether it be gator meat in Florida or
bats in Palau. But only non-white countries get branded as places of 'disease'. That's
because racism is the perpetuation of structures of power.
Black slaves were prized in southern plantations because they were resistant to diseases
like malaria. That is a fact, but it is also a historical reality that how people talk about
diseases is part of racial and racist discourse.
"... ...The notion of panic is best studied in the context of war. Subjected to fire, explosion etc. a military unit can be reduced to an unthinking mass, fleeing, dropping weapons and massacred by the advancing opponent. This is called panic, and it is never advisable, unlike a retreat performed in a controlled manner, minimizing the losses of the material, life and territory. ..."
...The notion of panic is best studied in the context of war. Subjected to fire, explosion
etc. a military unit can be reduced to an unthinking mass, fleeing, dropping weapons and
massacred by the advancing opponent. This is called panic, and it is never advisable,
unlike a retreat performed in a controlled manner, minimizing the losses of the material,
life and territory.
On personal level, I think I witnessed a trace of panic when I visited supermarket
today. There is a wide aisle with paper goods on one side and frozen goods on the
other. Toilet paper seems 95% gone, and so are frozen vegetables on the other side. Frozen
stuff from other aisles seem untouched. Personally, I had to substitute canned peas for
frozen peas I planned to buy. In any case, few reasons to expect major shortages.
On a larger level, a number of governments in Europe reacts with panic, doing things
that can seriously make things worse. When small countries close borders, there can be
serious havoc. Tens of thousands of people, thousands of trucks are stuck.
At least in USA, states have no authority to close borders. A smallish country like
Slovakia can have severe shortages if hysterical neighbors (Poland and Hungary, I am not
sure about Czechia) close borders. As supply chains cross borders to a large degree in EU,
interrupting the border traffic can create unpredictable shortages.
Additionally, creating big crowds (of stranded people) is very, very stupid under the
circumstances.
Rational policies would be to create the balance of needs and resources, take
measures to increase critical supplies including test kits, medical equipment and
medicines, find ways of humane and rational handling of travelers and so on.
Propublica has published a model showing hospital bed availability vs. nCOV infection rates,
nationwide: bed vs. infection rate
It actually isn't bad: there are spots where 20% infection in 12 months is bad, but overall
the US seems in decent shape. 20% in 6 months - significant red coverage.
But interestingly - my Eyeball Mark I shows the negative effects mostly in the liberal
zones = cities.
Chloroquine/hydrochloroquinine was determined to be effective for the treatment of the
coronavirus by Chinese clinicians early in February, and the Chinese government announced
this on February 17 this year. Today (March 19) Trump and his staff amazingly announced that
medical personnel in American health agencies have discovered, developed and were testing
these drugs without any mention of the considerable Chinese, as well as Korean, published
experience and success using these closely-related and relatively safe malarial drugs.
Shameful and highly deceitful, to say the least. This deceit should be revealed again and
again without letup.
"... Now moving on to the COVID-19 virus and the reactions. At present it is without question, based on the statistical evidence, an overreaction of historical proportions. ..."
"... The three areas, so far, where the virus has been the worst, N Italy, N China and Iran each have one thing in common - some of the worst air pollution on the planet which has been widely cited and as much as a decade ago it was noted that the results would be compromised immune systems, diminished lung functions and outbreaks of related health issues. So what we have essentially is an environment which was ripe for such viruses to proliferate and population that is vulnerable to such things. ..."
"... BTW Russ is correct on his note about bio-weapons and the funding for such things is always there even as the accounting methods serve to hide where these funds go. ..."
People have completely lost their minds here and that is due to decades of social engineering
which has created a culture devoid of critical thinking skills and a frighteningly docile
populace. Accepting the narrative of so-called (and ideologically and often financially)
experts is demanded of everyone lest you be cited as a "conspiracy monger." We could cite
literally all day the number of "whacked out" conspiracies that ended up being factual but
that's for another time.
Having said that it is the case that at present all of what b is saying in this
post is almost certainly the case- excepting the bio weapons narrative which is virtually
impossible to prove and if this is the case it was a very poor job of utilizing those
bio-weapons. And there is most definitely a racist element to this amongst the right-wingers
which will be played up.
Now moving on to the COVID-19 virus and the reactions. At present it is without
question, based on the statistical evidence, an overreaction of historical proportions.
The only option that changes this is if there is something further that we do not know and
for this we are to place our faith in governments and institutions that have consistently
lied to us and manipulated the public for decades. Someone tell me that we are actually
suppose to hold our noses and this time believe the "official narrative." It would
actually go against the proven evidence, that these entities are proven liars, for us to do
so.
The virus itself is just that - a virus even if it is particularly virulent which is still
up for debate. The notions of how to address this, at least the ones peddled to us, are
simply wrongheaded and fit a certain model of the medical establishment that BTW is part and
parcel of the same system that has brought us to the point of massive ecological collapse.
Let's not separate that out.
The three areas, so far, where the virus has been the worst, N Italy, N China and Iran
each have one thing in common - some of the worst air pollution on the planet which has been
widely cited and as much as a decade ago it was noted that the results would be compromised
immune systems, diminished lung functions and outbreaks of related health issues. So what we
have essentially is an environment which was ripe for such viruses to proliferate and
population that is vulnerable to such things.
Keep in mind that viruses constantly mutate and there are myriad viruses that are unknown
and never to be known until something like this occurs. So all talk of some "silver bullet"-
be it vaccine or other medical discovery- is at best short-term if not a Trojan Horse.
The solution is to have an economic social order that creates environments where the
external environment is such that the inhabitants are less likely to be impacted by such
contagions. Right now we have the exact opposite. So say what you want about COVID and
pretend that you can find a "fix" but once this passes if we are forced to return to the same
omnicidal economic system we will be right back here a few years from now.
BTW Russ is correct on his note about bio-weapons and the funding for such things is
always there even as the accounting methods serve to hide where these funds go.
I will unfortunately have to go against the grain here and say that I still fail to see the
immense danger of the virus.
The argument this article makes - particularly in its third paragraph - that drastic
measures taken by governments and private institutions means that the virus is a huge threat
doesn't logically follow. No matter how drastic the measures, how large the public's panic or
how rabid the panic buying, my chance of dying from the virus even if contracting it is, as a
sub-60 year old, healthy person still at roughly 1%, not much higher than viruses that gain
little to no media or political attention.
The fact that it affects old people, but unlike many other viruses not babies is another
factor that should lessen fear, rather than increase it.
This article summarizes the poll but mentions no reasons why those who do not believe the
mainstream narrative should change their opinions other than empty polemic statements (such
as "It would require deliberately ignoring these developments or accepting a completely false
narrative about them to conclude that the threat has been overblown at this point.")
In lieu of proper counter-arguments, it is false to assume that only those willfully
ignorant or believing in false narratives would not be as concerned about this virus as those
in the media and others blowing it out proportion.
A thought. I have often heard the regime in Beijing described as evil, but not stupid. Why on
earth would they have shut down an entire province and partially shut down their whole
country with all the attendant societal disruption and economic devastation if they didn't
think COV is a lot more than flu? Remember, the Chinese are famously fatalistic about life
and death (that is a polite way of saying that they care less about individual human lives
than we do). And what about the Italians. Were they just nervous nellies who had an
irrational panic attack over nothing? OBVIOUSLY they, and many other countries, think this is
a lot more serious than influenza.
my chance of dying from the virus even if contracting it is, as a sub-60 year old, healthy
person still at roughly 1%, not much higher than viruses that gain little to no media or
political attention. The fact that it affects old people, but unlike many other viruses not
babies is another factor that should lessen fear, rather than increase it
Nobody really has *any* solid idea of the epidemiology of this yet, so your blithe 1% is a
kind of wish-thinking. In the States, thanks to the lack of testing (i.e., the failure to
ramp up basic precautionary public health responses), **any** confident assertions of rates
and chances really just serve to flag the speaker as somebody who doesn't know how much he
doesn't know. Nassim Yaleb has some interesting thoughts about the real logic of our
situation:
First of all, you assume that I don't give a damn. I do. I don't think the virus is
unimportant. No virus is.
Second, the lack of certainty plays in favor of my argument rather than yours: We do
already have numbers on the amount of people infected, the amount of people who recovered and
the amount of people who died. From the latter two, we can surmise the percentage chance of a
person surviving an infection. Combining this with the percentage of people who died who were
over the age of 60 (80%) and the number of those people who had pre-existing, severe
conditions (75%) gives us a good idea.
Those who became infected with the virus but either didn't know that it was more than a
common fever or who became infected and had symptoms mild or even non-existent won't figure
into the number of people infected. Hence, the actual percentage chance of dying from the
virus is even lower, since only those who had symptoms severe enough and got tested will
figure into it. The reverse doesn't apply.
Hence, the actual risk of dying is even lower than the numbers suggest.
We don't even know if reinfection is a possibility. As I said, at this point *all*
serene predictions of the disease's likely course are fatuous. What the hell are you, The
Hobby Epidemiologist?
Funny how you specify that "serene" predictions in particular are fatuous while excluding
pessimistic ones. Perhaps it's you who is driven not by data but something else, rather than
me?
You are right. We are flying blind as long as we are not testing widely. However, there is
a lot of data available from other places and using that data we can actually extrapolate
quite a bit. Check this out:
Chloroquine was proposed as an efficient anti-viral for Cov-19 (short for the virus and
disease) by Dr. Raoult in France, right from the start. He is supposedly the no.1 expert
*World* on Communicable diseases. See list of names in the > right column.
This type of grading - ranking - endorsing, certifying, etc. some 'experts', does NOT per
se correlate with their knowledge, honesty, ingenuity, insight (which may be random), etc. It
is very much a social acceptance by the PTB scene based on no. of publications,
contacts, financial awards, contacts with pols, getting more funding, being able to run a
team, etc.
Yet, Dr. Raoult (Marseilles) is not in F considered a great expert at all, as he is not
part of the Paris-Nexus.
This short clip 4 mins on Jan. 21, he is questioned about the coronaviruses (well before
huge alarm in F) shows the personage. In F no subs, but have a look-see for 30 secs.
@ Posted by: donkeytale | Mar 18 2020 18:49 utc | 61
Did you see my link? Japan has a daily test capacity of only some 7,000 (South Korea, for
example, is testing 20,000 per day). To make things worse, it is using just one sixth of this
capacity. My source is the Japan Times, so you cannot invoke propaganda.
The Chinese doctors are using at least 22 different broad-spectrum antivirals to try to
treat the infected. Not surprised one of them is Japanese, but that's irrelevant information
(one of them, for example, is Cuban).
As I've posted in the previous thread, in moments of pandemic crisis against a disease
without cure, doctors on the field have the poetic license to try whatever they want to. So
they threw practically everything in Wuhan (shots in the dark after shots in the dark). It's
acceptable medical practice in these extraordinary cases.
But none of the 22 antivirals are cures. Not even close. Best case scenario, they gain
some time for some patients. Do not fall for the barrage of fake news in the Western MSM
about "promising cures, treatments and vaccines" coming from some alleged geniuses at some
unicorn in some First World country:
Zhong made the remarks at a press conference in Guangzhou on Wednesday, stressing that so
far there is no targeted therapeutic COVID-19 drug and international cooperation is still
needed for new experiments.
The fight against the COVID-19 should not be reliant on "herd immunity," Zhong added,
saying that the production of an effective COVID-19 vaccine is at present the top priority,
and the development requires international cooperation.
Zhong also made very clear the laissez-faire tactic won't work:
"There is no evidence of immunity for life after one infection of the virus," Zhong added.
Iran (especially Tehran), northern Italy (Po River valley region) and Wuhan are also areas
of high levels of air pollution. Populations in these regions are located in river valleys or
plateaux in mountainous areas where temperature inversions leading to thick smog are common.
I've read that Tehran experiences annual temperature inversions once a year, in the past
occurring in December but in recent times starting earlier in November. Qom, where Iran's
COVID-19 outbreak started, is not far from Tehran and itself is becoming more
industrialised.
Northern Italy is reputed to have the worst air quality of any region in Europe.
Interesting that there was a flood of comments yesterday - here, at Off Guardian, and other
similar sites - all pushing the concept that the virus is a mild flu and that best practices,
particularly social distancing, were in fact a scam designed to initiate the new world
order/global police state, or something. Rational responses were met with all-caps freak outs
and down-voting.
In my area, vehicle traffic has been down by at least 50%. The skies are noticeably
clearer. A colleague pointed out that satellite imagery over northern Italy has shown that
the air quality there has visibly improved.
People should take a closer look at the stats coming out of Germany and S. Korea, both
countries known for extensive testing. There are over 8,100 cases in Germany, yet death
remains at 12, which makes the death rate <0.15%, almost on par with the flu. SK's death
rate is around 0.65%.
SK doctors have been using the malaria/arthritis drug hydrochloroquine to treat patients
with much success, now a doctor in France has found that a combination of that drug and a
common antibiotic azithromycin has cured up to 70% of patients after 3 to 6 days: https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-covid19-cure-study/
Hopefully this is the cure we've been waiting for.
I'm agnostic on the subject of COVID-19: its origin, how it first infected humans, its
epidemiological spread
Perhaps agnostic is not the best choice of words, but overall, I agree.
It is not impossible that the virus did not "escape" from the Wuhan Lab, but it is
unlikely.
That the Chinese have sequenced a virus to do something unexpected, then published it, is
unremarkable. That others may have done the same or similar and not published it,
would be remarkable. I would consider the "Five Eyes" and Israel entirely capable – and
likely to do that, given they operate as one.
I look to the narrative we get in North America, irrespective of the topic, and the
pattern is the same:
1- "report" the topic;
2- announce "breaking news" to establish the narrative;
3- repeat the narrative endlessly saturating the media;
4- ignore contrary evidence;
5- if #4 becomes too difficult, discredit it by a bait and switch;
6- pronounce the narrative is still solid and alternative information false;
7- rinse and repeat.
(I suppose, if all else fails, blame Russia/Putin could be added.)
In context of the above, I am leaning toward that it wasn't an accident and in all
likelihood it wasn't China.
The corona hype is not based on any extraordinary public health danger. However, it
causes considerable damage to our freedom and personal rights through frivolous and
unjustified quarantine measures and restrictions. The images in the media are frightening
and the traffic in China's cities seems to be regulated by the clinical thermometer.
Evidence based epidemiological assessment is drowning in the mainstream of fear mongers
in labs, media and ministries.
The carnival in Venice was cancelled after an elderly dying hospital patient was tested
positive. When a handful of people in Northern Italy also were tested positive, Austria
immediately closed the Brenner Pass temporarily.
Due to a suspected case of coronavirus, more than 1000 people were not allowed to leave
their hotel in Tenerife. On the cruise ship Diamond Princess 3700 passengers could not
disembark., Congresses and touristic events are cancelled, economies suffer and schools in
Italy have an extra [holiday].
At the beginning of February, 126 people from Wuhan were brought to Germany by plane and
remained there in quarantine two weeks in perfect health. Corona viruses were detected in
two of the healthy individuals.
We have experienced similar alarmist actions by virologists in the last two decades.
WHO's "swine flu pandemic" was in fact one of the mildest flu waves in history and it is
not only migratory birds that are still waiting for "birds flu". Many institutions that are
now again alerting us to the need for caution have let us down and failed us on several
occasions. Far too often, they are institutionally corrupted by secondary interests from
business and/or politics.
If we do not want to chase frivolous panic messages, but rather to responsibly assess
the risk of a spreading infection, we must use solid epidemiological methodology. This
includes looking at the "normal", the baseline, before you can speak of anything
exceptional.
Until now, hardly anyone has paid attention to corona viruses. For example, in the
annual reports of the Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) they are only marginally mentioned
because there was SARS in China in 2002 and because since 2012 some transmissions from
dromedaries to humans have been observed in Arabia (MERS). There is nothing about a
regularly recurring presence of corona viruses in dogs, cats, pigs, mice, bats and in
humans, even in Germany.
However, children's hospitals are usually well aware, that a considerable proportion of
the often severe viral pneumonia is also regularly caused or accompanied by corona viruses
worldwide.
In view of the well-known fact that in every "flu wave" 7-15% of acute respiratory
illnesses (ARI) are coming along with coronaviruses, the case numbers that are now
continuously added up are still completely within the normal range.
About one per thousand infected are expected to die during flu seasons. By selective
application of PCR-tests – for example, only in clinics and medical outpatient
clinics – this rate can easily be pushed up to frightening levels, because those, who
need help there are usually worse off than those, who are recovering at home. The role of
such s selection bias seems to be neglected in China and elsewhere.
Since the turn of the year, the focus of the public, of science and of health
authorities has suddenly narrowed to some kind of blindness. Some doctors in Wuhan (12
million inhabitants) succeeded in attracting worldwide attention with initially less than
50 cases and some deaths in their clinic, in which they had identified corona viruses as
the pathogen.
The colourful maps that are now being shown to us on paper or screens are impressive,
but they usually have less to do with disease than with the activity of skilled virologists
and crowds of sensationalist reporters.
We are currently not measuring the incidence of coronavirus diseases, but the activity
of the specialists searching for them.
Wherever such the new tests are carried out – there about 9000 tests per week
available in 38 laboratories throughout Europe on 13 February 2020 – there are at
least single cases detected and every case becomes a self-sustaining media event. The fact
alone that the discovery of a coronavirus infection is accompanied by a particularly
intensive search in its vicinity explains many regional [clusters].
The horror reports from Wuhan were something, that virologists all over the world are
waiting for. Immediately, the virus strains present in the refrigerators were scanned and
compared feverishly with the reported newcomers from Wuhan. A laboratory at the
Charité won the race at the WHO and was the first to be allowed to market its
in-house tests worldwide. Prof C. Drosten was interviewed on 23rd of january 2020 and
described how the Test was established. He said, that he cooperated with a Partner from
China, who confirmed the specific sensitivity of the Charitè-Test for the Wuhan
coronavirus. Other Tests from different Places followed soon and found their market.
However, it is better not to be tested for corona viruses. Even with a slight "flu-like"
infection the risk of coronavirus detection would be 7% – 15% . This is, what a
prospective monitoring in Scotland (from 2005 to 2013) may teach us. The scope, the
possible hits and the significance of the new tests are not [yet] validated. It would be
[interesting] to have [some] tests not only on airports and cruising ships but on [German]
or [Italian] cats, mice or even bats.
If you find some new virus RNA in a Thai cave ore a Wuhan hospital, it takes a long time
to map its prevalence in different hosts worldwide.
But if you want to give evidence to a spreading pandemic by using PCR-Tests only, this
is what should have been done after a prospective cross sectional [protocol].
So beware of side effects. Nowadays positive PCR tests have tremendous consequences for
the everyday life of the patient and his wider environment, as can be seen in all media
without effort.
However, the finding itself has no clinical significance. It is just another name for
acute respiratory illnesses (ARI), which as every year put 30% to 70% of all people in our
countries more or less out of action for a week or two every winter.
According to a prospective ARI-virus monitoring in Scotland from 2005 to 2013, the most
common pathogens of acute respiratory diseases were: 1. rhinoviruses, 2. influenza A
viruses, 3. influenza B viruses, 4. RS viruses and 5. coronaviruses.
This order changed slightly from year to year. Even with viruses competing for our
mucous membrane cells, there is apparently a changing quorum, as we know it from our
intestines in the case of microorganisms and from the Bundestag in the case of political
groups.
So if there is now to be an increasing number of "proven" coronavirus infections. in
China or in Italy: Can anyone say how often such examinations were carried out in previous
winters, by whom, for what reason and with which results? When someone claims that
something is increasing, he must surely refer to something, that has been observed
before.
It can be stunning, when an experienced disease control officer looks at the current
turmoil, the panic and the suffering it causes. I'm sure many of those responsible public
health officers would probably risk their jobs today, as they did with the "swine flu" back
then, if they would follow their experience and oppose the mainstream.
Every winter we have a virus epidemic with thousands of deaths and with millions of
infected people even in Germany. And coronaviruses always have their share.
So if the Federal Government wants to do something good, it could learn from
epidemiologists in Glasgow and have all clever minds at the RKI observe prospectively (!!!)
and watch how the virom of the German population changes from year to year.
Some questions for the evaluation of the current findings:
1) Which prospective, standardised monitoring of acute respiratory diseases with or
without fever (ILI, ARI) is used for the epidemiological risk assessment of coronavirus
infections observed in Wuhan Italy, South Korea, Iran and elsewhere (baseline).
2) How do the comparable (!) results of earlier observations differ from those now
reported by the WHO? (in China, in Europe, in Italy, in Germany, etc.)
3) What would we observe this ARI-season if we would ignore the new PCR-testing?
4) How valid and how comparable are the detection methods used with regard to
sensitivity, specificity and pathogenetic or prognostic relevance?
5) What is the evidence or probability that the observed corona viruses 2019/2020 are
more dangerous to public health than previous variants?
6) If you find them now, how can you [prove], they were not there (e.g. in animals)
before.
What considerations have been made or taken into account to exclude or minimise sources of
bias (sources of error)?
Note: the original source of this quote contains embedded links not here apparent.
Finally, a great perspective on this fiasco. I agree, we
cannot make such important decisions with so little data to back it up. I would also add that
we do have some data that suggests that it's not an extinction level event as it's being
portrayed.
Look at the numbers in the countries that have been through it already, number of
cases are exponential for about 2 weeks and then they begin to decrease. That's happened in
China, South Korea, and is happening in Italy and Iran right now.
If China has 3,200 deaths
(plus 2600 critical condition patients) and Italy has 2500 deaths (plus 2000 critical
condition cases), why would we expect much more in the US?
According to the CDC MMWR, during
week 9 of 2020, pneumonia killed 2280 people and the flu another 384; during week 8 of 2020,
2911 died of pneumonia and the flu killed another 415.
That's more deaths in 2 weeks in the
US than all of China's deaths due to covid-19 since the epidemic started.
Why are we not
talking about this? I know that we have a pretty good idea of what the flu does every year
and I agree that we had no idea what covid-19 was going to do in a country in January, but
it's March and we have seen what it's done in a couple of countries and it's not any worse
than any other disease that we encounter every year.
I also agree that when this is all done
and we finally get more data, the fatality rate for covid-19 will certainly be less than 1%.
Then what? After the extensive damage to every part of our society? For what? What about the
people that rely on a weekly paycheck? The small business that rely on heavy customer
traffic? Will we hold someone responsible? Will it be the news media trying to sell
newspapers with negative headlines?
Scientists that arrive to a conclusion with no evidence
to support it? Are we going to freak out every year because bad things can possibly happen?
Maybe if we work really hard this year we can come up with something for next year that will
really kill us all but it won't be a virus this time, it will be our own stupidity and lack
of common sense.
"... "The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn't know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask, 'What can I do for you now?' ..."
"... "Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can't save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny. ..."
"... "There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols. ..."
What is happening now in Italy explained by one of the doctors fighting the pandemic in
Bergamo, this was on 9 March, today the situation in Bergamo and all Italy is much worse with
this "normal flu" (sarc):
Dr Daniele Macchini's post, translated by Dr Silvia Stringhini
"After much thought about whether and what to write about what is happening to us, I felt
that silence was not responsible.
"I will therefore try to convey to people far from our reality what we are living in
Bergamo in these days of Covid-19 pandemic. I understand the need not to create panic, but
when the message of the dangerousness of what is happening does not reach people I
shudder.
"I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the
past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly 'emptied',
elective activities were interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as
possible.
"All this rapid transformation brought an atmosphere of silence and surreal emptiness to
the corridors of the hospital that we did not yet understand, waiting for a war that was yet
to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would ever come with such
ferocity.
"I still remember my night call a week ago when I was waiting for the results of a swab.
When I think about it, my anxiety over one possible case seems almost ridiculous and
unjustified, now that I've seen what's happening. Well, the situation now is dramatic to say
the least.
"The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that
need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been
emptied fill up at an impressive pace.
"The boards with the names of the patients, of different colours depending on the
operating unit, are now all red and instead of surgery you see the diagnosis, which is always
the damned same: bilateral interstitial pneumonia.
"Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. [post continues comparing
Covid19 to flu, link here]. And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by
ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is 'temporarily' put in crisis,
the epidemiological disaster is taking place. And there are no more surgeons, urologists,
orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this
tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
"Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same
reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive.
Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.
"Reasons for the access always the same: fever and breathing difficulties, fever and
cough, respiratory failure. Radiology reports always the same: bilateral interstitial
pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia, bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All to be
hospitalized.
"Someone already to be intubated and go to intensive care. For others it's too late...
Every ventilator becomes like gold: those in operating theatres that have now suspended their
non-urgent activity become intensive care places that did not exist before.
"The staff is exhausted. I saw the tiredness on faces that didn't know what it was
despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us, who never
failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask, 'What can I do for you now?'
"Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of
nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can't save everyone, and the vital
parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny.
"There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no
longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected
despite the protocols.
"Some of our colleagues who are infected also have infected relatives and some of their
relatives are already struggling between life and death. So be patient, you can't go to the
theatre, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could
exterminate.
"We just try to make ourselves useful. You should do the same: we influence the life and
death of a few dozen people. You with yours, many more. Please share this message. We must
spread the word to prevent what is happening here from happening all over Italy.
"I finish by saying that I really don't understand this war on panic. The only reason I
see is mask shortages, but there's no mask on sale anymore. We don't have a lot of studies,
but is it panic really worse than neglect and carelessness during an epidemic of this
sort?"
And now let the people make "normal life" and acquire "herd immunity", BoJo and a good
part of the western governments (if not all) are criminals
...Express.co.uk has compiled advice to show which objects to sanitise to avoid
spreading the deadly disease. Trending
Mobile phones
Research has found mobile phones can be 10 times dirtier than toilet seats.
Your own hands can be the biggest culprit when it comes to adding germs and bacteria onto your phone.
Assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan School of Public Health, Emily Martin, said mobile
telephones are particularly dirty because people do not necessarily wash their hands before touching them.
She told Time.com: "Because people are always carrying their cell phones even in situations where they would normally
wash their hands before doing anything, cell phones do tend to get pretty gross."
ATMs or ticket machines
Ticket machines and ATMs will be touched by many people which means it poses a risk to spreading coronavirus.
Coronavirus warning: Coronavirus has killed more than 94,000 people around the world
(Image: GETTY)
Telephones
Your mobile phone can pose a risk, but additionally so can shared office telephones.
Office kitchens
Coffee machines or kettles will be handled by multiple people, so it's a good idea to use hand sanitiser after doing the
tea round.
Lift buttons
Lift buttons can be touched by potentially hundreds or thousands of people depending on how many people use the lift
regularly.
This means it can pose a threat to spreading coronavirus.
Handrails
Escalators, tube handrails, bannisters will all be touched constantly, potentially by thousands of people a day.
Dr Tait-Burkard told the Guardian: "If you're on public transport, there's no way not to touch the handrails.
"So when you get off, disinfect your hands."
Coronavirus warning: More than 75 countries have reported cases of coronavirus
(Image: GETTY)
Communal bathrooms
Communal bathrooms can pose a threat as they are enclosed spaces which will be accessed by several people.
The door handles, soap dispensers, hand dryers, bins and other objects could be touched by many people.
Additionally, people often blow their noses in the bathroom which can help spread the virus.
Hospitals
Hospitals can be hotbeds for disease, so it is advisable to wash your hands thoroughly before and after visiting a
hospital.
Professor Haas told the Guardian: "Shaking hands is a frequent transmission route for disease in hospitals.
"It's why health personnel are supposed to regularly disinfect their hands."
There is only limited evidence to suggest it actually helps. However, saltwater rinses have not been shown to prevent
respiratory infections in the past. The NHS said: “There is no evidence that regularly rinsing the nose with salt water protects
you from coronavirus”. The real question is how long it take the virus to get inside the cell: is this hours or
minutes?
BTW Research has found mobile phones can be 10 times dirtier than toilet seats.
The use of saline (salt water) irrigations for the nose and sinuses has been shown to be highly effective in improving allergy
symptoms and shortening the duration of a sinus infection. Typically, for
allergy
sufferers, doctors recommend irrigating the sinuses once every day to every other day with 8 ounces of salt water.
Make your own saline rinse Combat sinus infections
As an Asthmatic I found this information interesting. You might need to scroll down - as
simple solutions (mainly before you really get it !) are near the end.
Quotes; A: Are you asking for some simple recommendations? First of all, take a good
care for the nasal mucosa and oropharyngeal area.
Q: To wash it with saltwater?
A: Yes, wash it thoroughly. But "lors" – non-prescription medications and sinus
cleaners to stop running nose and for an effective lavage. That is, the feeling of free
unobstructed breath should come after all. The second thing is the oropharyngeal area behind
the uvula. And there, too, you need to make a good lavage of the oropharyngeal
region.
Q: So you don't just have to squirt it up your nose, you have to gargle it deep down
your throat?
A: Yes, and rinse it out. And don't be lazy. Do do it until you get a feeling of clean, good
airways. Of all the ways, this is the most effective. I would advise those people who can
afford to buy a nebulizer or
Q: Do you mean, it's aerosol, right? With ultrasound?
A: Yes. And it allows the hygiene of the upper respiratory tract to be brought to a good
state. When a cough starts, it is desirable to still apply the medications that we prescribe
for patients with bronchial asthma. This is either Berodual, or Ventolin, or Salbutamol.
Because these drugs improve mucociliary clearance, relieve spasm.
Q: You mean expectorant?" Mucolytic ACC?
A: Yes, ACC and Fluimucil. And what you can't do is use glucocorticosteroids. This
virus replication is rapidly increasing by them.
Q: What does that mean?
A: Corticosteroids is prednisone, methylprednisolone, dexamethasone, betamethasone.
Q: So you don't need to inject hormones, relatively speaking, if you have a viral
infection?
A: There are inhaled steroids. But there are patients with asthma who are ill and are on this
therapy. But this has to be a tailor-made solutions.
------------
b's and most western Government's change of heart, makes sense if the re-infection rate is
much higher and more lethal than the first onset of the virus. I don't know the truth
about this but there was a small, quickly suppressed, report from *researchers* in
Hubei that this is the case. The second time round we are talking about an attack on the
"vital" organs (heart etc) in a relatively short period of days.
What will happen is a societal collapse, or a total financial scam where the billionaires
come out of hiding and take everything for a few shekels. Remember that debts can be
"claimed" decades after they are made. So ordinary people will have to pay back all these
massive "aids" later, through taxes.
I keep seeing people recommending this salt water lavage. So I looked it up on the
Internet. No, it does *not* kill the virus. It might ease the symptoms, but does nothing to
eliminate the virus.
As far as I know from reading so far, there are *no* "home remedies" that can deal with
this virus.
I have seen suggestions to boost your vitamin intake in hopes of boosting your immune
system. I've upped my C to 3 grams a day instead of my usual 1 and my D-3 to 6,000 units
instead of my usual 4,000.
As an Asthmatic I found this information interesting. You might need to scroll down - as
simple solutions (mainly before you really get it !) are near the end.
Quotes; A: Are you asking for some simple recommendations? First of all, take a good
care for the nasal mucosa and oropharyngeal area.
Q: To wash it with saltwater?
A: Yes, wash it thoroughly. But "lors" – non-prescription medications and sinus
cleaners to stop running nose and for an effective lavage. That is, the feeling of free
unobstructed breath should come after all. The second thing is the oropharyngeal area behind
the uvula. And there, too, you need to make a good lavage of the oropharyngeal
region.
Q: So you don't just have to squirt it up your nose, you have to gargle it deep down
your throat?
A: Yes, and rinse it out. And don't be lazy. Do do it until you get a feeling of clean, good
airways. Of all the ways, this is the most effective. I would advise those people who can
afford to buy a nebulizer or
Q: Do you mean, it's aerosol, right? With ultrasound?
A: Yes. And it allows the hygiene of the upper respiratory tract to be brought to a good
state. When a cough starts, it is desirable to still apply the medications that we prescribe
for patients with bronchial asthma. This is either Berodual, or Ventolin, or Salbutamol.
Because these drugs improve mucociliary clearance, relieve spasm.
Q: You mean expectorant?" Mucolytic ACC?
A: Yes, ACC and Fluimucil. And what you can't do is use glucocorticosteroids. This
virus replication is rapidly increasing by them.
Q: What does that mean?
A: Corticosteroids is prednisone, methylprednisolone, dexamethasone, betamethasone.
Q: So you don't need to inject hormones, relatively speaking, if you have a viral
infection?
A: There are inhaled steroids. But there are patients with asthma who are ill and are on this
therapy. But this has to be a tailor-made solutions.
------------
b's and most western Government's change of heart, makes sense if the re-infection rate is
much higher and more lethal than the first onset of the virus. I don't know the truth
about this but there was a small, quickly suppressed, report from *researchers* in
Hubei that this is the case. The second time round we are talking about an attack on the
"vital" organs (heart etc) in a relatively short period of days.
What will happen is a societal collapse, or a total financial scam where the billionaires
come out of hiding and take everything for a few shekels. Remember that debts can be
"claimed" decades after they are made. So ordinary people will have to pay back all these
massive "aids" later, through taxes.
I keep seeing people recommending this salt water lavage. So I looked it up on the
Internet. No, it does *not* kill the virus. It might ease the symptoms, but does nothing to
eliminate the virus.
As far as I know from reading so far, there are *no* "home remedies" that can deal with
this virus.
I have seen suggestions to boost your vitamin intake in hopes of boosting your immune
system. I've upped my C to 3 grams a day instead of my usual 1 and my D-3 to 6,000 units
instead of my usual 4,000.
The more the fear porn ramps up, the less certain I become of any aspect of the narrative
surrounding it. We are definitely all being discouraged from questioning its virulence,
discouraged from referring to its official fatality and case numbers, which do not correlate
with the level of fear we are being told is appropriate. There is certainly a massive and
multifaceted attempt to fudge and inflate those numbers to bring them in line with the
'response'.
This brings us back to our revelation that good old
Wikipedia have been downgrading the CFR of the Spanish Flu. It's hard not to see this as
part of the same process.
The actual death rates just aren't high enough. So talk them up, play pea and thimble
games with the stats, and do some Memory-Holing so that the 1918 pandemic suddenly has a very
similar CFR, allowing your tame media to make all the right comparisons in their op eds and
editorials, pointing out how many millions died back then despite it only having a fatality
ratio of 2.5%.
They seem aware of the discrepancy, and are making efforts to prevent people researching
it. The WHO are warning people not to read "too much" about the disease in order to protect
their mental health. In a write up on the reccomendations, the BBC says this :
There is a lot of misinformation swirling around – stay informed by sticking to
trusted sources of information such as government and NHS websites
Whether this virus is as imaginary as some are saying, or entirely real, it's being hyped
to a point beyond any connection with reality, and not just in the media. It's a
multi-pronged assault on our minds right now. Allegedly reliable and authoritative medical
professionals are just as likely to talk propaganda at you as some government minister or
media halfwit.
Gary Weglarz ,
Veterans Today describes itself as follows at its website: ("VeteransToday.com (VT) is an
independent alternative journal for the clandestine services focused on U.S. Foreign Policy
and Military Issues.")
A rather interesting report from VT to say the least.
RT has a headline "21 year old Spanish football coach dies of corona virus" Click on the
story. He had leukemia.
Dungroanin ,
Will just sticking to actual facts make a blind bit of difference to the panicked? I fear
not.
97% of all infected in the whole world seem to have recovered.
Of the 3% who didn't the AVERAGE age is above 70.
There is a trade off between a shorter period and more cases at the same time and the
same total number but not so many at the same time over a longer period by trying to
isloate people who do get it.
A safe vaccine must be ar least a year away for the NEXT return of the virus.
Is there any objection to these facts?
-- --
Facts?
Apparently italians are so far advanced in their doom they are letting a body remain in a
house without collecting it .
Apparently the 'young man' in his 50's was killed by the virus in the UK.
Are These 'facts' true? Can anyone post any links to them?
Thom ,
It's fairly clear the coronavirus is both a cover and an excuse for a) temporary financial
collapse; b) a vicious trade war with China and c) gaslighting the peoples of western
'democracies' into accepting semi-fascist government. As soon as the markets are at rock
bottom and China, Iran and the eurozone damaged as much as possible, a vaccine will most
probably be 'found', the markets will 'soar' and the majority will thank their political
leaders for pulling them back from the abyss – forgetting that many of the control
measures will still be in place and their pensions, investments and, quite likely, bank
accounts will have been quietly ransacked.
aspnaz ,
Totally agree. Here in HK we have had 4 deaths from Covid-19 over the past three months.
Here is a link to the HK covid-19 website that even gives you details of every case
https://wars.vote4.hk/en/ .
Initially the HK people paniced and most improved their personal hygiene: hand washing,
masks etc. All public gathering facilities were closed, such as all the public sports
facilities, but now they are all opening again and things are returning to normal as the
predictions of massive death prove to be false. I don't know what is happening in other
countries, but here in HK (and the same according to relatives in Taiwan) it has turned out
to be a bit of a nothing burger. Strangely, I have posted this comment on a number of fear
porn alt websites and had it removed.
Bryan ,
The modelling suggests that people over 60 are particularly vulnerable (for obvious age
related issues) and that the sheer numbers from this group will quickly overwhelm health
provision – so few will be priority treated and many will die from avoidable
complications. This is not hype and requires a serious intetventionalist response. I do not
doubt however that such measures may be come a permanent part of our slide towards the
authoritarian Right.
Jen ,
There is now news of a 21-year-old Spanish football coach,
a guy called Francisco Garcia , dying from COVID-19. He had an underlying condition
(leukaemia) which he did not know of until he had symptoms of COVID-19 infection and went
to hospital.
Garcia is likely to be the tip of the proverbial iceberg of young people who do not know
that they have dormant health issues until their immune systems become stressed or
infection with COVID-19 stirs up the dormant health problems.
During their late teenage / young adult years, people often pick up diseases or
pathogens – the various herpes viruses and the Epstein-Barr virus that causes
glandular fever come to mind – and for the most these issues resolve or their
symptoms go away but the viruses that cause them continue to stay in the body and create
problems later when the immune system is stressed by another pathogen.
How many young people these days might have dormant conditions, viruses or bacteria
causing no problems at all until they come into situations where their immune systems are
stressed, such as but not limited to situations like working two or more jobs in insecure
or dangerous conditions, living in share arrangements with strangers whose medical
histories are unknown, and being unsure of future prospects? They may also be vulnerable to
COVID-19 more than we realise.
Mucho ,
"If you ever doubted that corruption is now endemic and all our institutions –
political, legal, medical – are stacked with yes-men and jobsworths or fools prepared
to put their names to any junk proclamation that might get them a raise or save their
professional skins, just think of this article."
Not forgetting the enormous army of dependable chaps from "The Lodge", who can always be
relied upon to grit their teeth and say whatever is required to "retain order."
George Mc ,
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Attributed to Mark Twain.
Dave Hansell ,
Presumably that would also include statistics on previous years flu cases, suicide
statistics, deaths from car accidents statistics, deaths from knife crime, or Ben
population statistics?
Or are some statistics more valid than others depending on their utility in arguing a
particular case or agenda?
George Mc ,
Twain – or whoever- was drawing attention to the easiness of manipulating statistics
– which is why we should scrutinise them as Catte has done above.
George Mc ,
By a coincidence this wondrous Lancet article is one I accessed myself just a few days back
and I noted that arresting statement:
We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the
number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using
WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be
5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2%
(12·5–17·9) outside of China.
i.e. mortality rates outside China are three times greater than inside. Scary stuff. I
presume that the number of deaths mentioned are from within the confirmed infected sample?
Surely it would be too cynical to assume that they added in deaths from outside? But, as
with the UK deaths so far, the dead may have had other illnesses too.
... ... ...
Willem ,
Here is a report from Northern Italy of an Italian dr that I consider to be true.
He says that the origen of the virus is the media who created a panic instead of a
pandemic and much more. Tempting to quote but better read for yourself.
Hat tip to Milosovic who previously added this link
I'd be very cautious about anything that 'authority' tells you. I'm in a part of south west
France that geographically is not far from northern Italy.
Just about everyone where I am is saying that the covid 19 stuff is complete and utter
bullshit.
Remember, covid 19 is brought to you by exactly the same people who brought to you 9/11,
and the invasion of Iraq, etc, etc, etc.
Ivan ,
In Italy today there were 345 deaths from coronavirus, 368 yesterday. There is an endless
flood of patients in the hospitals, hospitals are being divided into hospitals trating
coronavirus cases and hospitals for non infected people. An emergency call for which the
medics arrived before in 10 minutes, now takes 50 minutes (Lombardia).
You don't know what you are talking about. Go take a look at the Italian news sites
(google translate).
Hmmm . Well I'm almost 75 with a heart condition and don't want to die gasping for breath.
So yes, for most, it's no big deal but anyone over 40 is at risk, so even if 'only' 1% die
in the UK, that's a lot of people. But most important of all, is the threat (potentially)
it poses to capitalism. Things will never be the same again.
Ieuan Einion ,
As I understand it, 30,000 people have died of this winter's particular strain of influenza
in the USA, which is par for the course, around 0.01% of those infected. If the Italian and
Iranian experiences to date are anything to go by, the infection/mortality ratio is much
greater for CorviD-19.
In line with the vitally important reference in the article to WHO estimates that 290 000-650
000 respiratory deaths occur each year associated with seasonal flu, the following cannot be
repeated often enough.
The ONS reported that in the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100
excess winter deaths in England and Wales alone. The report attributed these deaths to "the
predominant strain of flu, the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine and below-average
winter temperatures".
So far, nCov has killed fewer than 50 people in the entire UK.
And yet, two years ago, not a single person wore a face mask, no flights were cancelled,
nobody refused to shake hands, not a single academic institution switched to distance
learning, no football was postponed, the England cricket team was not called home from a
sunlit corner of the former empire and no damn fools ran out to Tesco to clear the shelves of
toilet rolls and pasta.
And while we are talking about infectious respiratory diseases, the following are WHO
statistics for 2018. The name of the disease (see if you can guess) comes at the end.
• A total of 1.5 million people died from this disease in 2018.
• An estimated 10 million people fell ill with this disease worldwide.
• In 2018, 1.1 million children fell ill with it globally, and there were 205 000 child
deaths due to it.
• There were cases in all countries and age groups.
But this disease is curable and preventable.
The fact is though that the western media, governments and the ignorant population do not
give a shit about it because eight countries account for two thirds of the total, namely
India followed by China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South
Africa.
There are three most helpful and competent sources "How to treat Coronavirus infection
COVID-19"
1. An advice from a pathologist who's been tracking the virus since 1970: United Nursing
Services "Good luck for all of us"
2. The RT-Interview with the member of the Russian Academy of Science Alexander Chuchalin
Translated by Scott Humor
3. Das Coronavirus-Update mit Christian Drosten | NDR.de ...
 https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html
The German Virologie-Professor gives a lot of informations in a podcast everyday for half an
hour, today was the 14th. If anybody knews the German language, it is a must to hear. He does
not speak only about the medical but all the sociological problems, the media and the
scientistic "fakes".
The Saker has a good article - How to treat Coronavirus infection COVID-19 - by an
international recognized virologist, Dr Chuchalain.
Contrary to what I have read in other articles, he says the virus does cause runny nose
and sore throat along with mild fever.
The best way to deal with this is salt water gargling and nasal rinses with the same.
A method to reduce getting infected is to wear gloves when out. Handwashing is more
effective than masks.
If you are infected masks do help you not infecting others. It is when the virus bypasses
your immune system and infects the lower lungs that danger appears.
Then other opportunist pathogens -- pneumonia causing bacteria and fungi take up residence
in the lower lungs often leading to death or lasting damage by fibrosis. Obviously it is much
better to stop it before this with then no lasting effects.
If dry cough and shortness of breath appear seek medical help immediately.
Analyzing the swab in a lab is simple and cheap, but getting the swab to the lab is
expensive. Normal testing procedures assume that the tested person is already infected.
Therefore the health worker doing the swabbing will have to wear full protective clothing.
Moreover, before testing the next patient he will have to disinfect and change protective
clothing. One estimate put the price of a COVID-19 test in the US at $1200. Of the sum $1000
was charged for the biohazard.
In most countries testing is done only where there is a strong suspicion the person is
infected with the new coronavirus. Therefore the measures against biohazards may be called
for.
Testing for coronavirus must be separated from health care. People who have symptoms but
do not need medical care should stay as far away from hospitals as possible. The safest and
most effective way to do high-throughput testing is drive-up or drive-in testing. The patient
or suspect stays inside the car and only opens a window. This way he or she does not infect
others. The testing team wears full protective clothing, including a gas mask.
This video by NBC News shows how it is done. A tent is set up on a huge parking
lot. Hundreds of cars wait in line. The testers wear disposable aprons which they change
after each suspect.
I watched VP Pence's press conference yesterday. I was actually impressed! The US will be
offering free drive-up testing to practically everyone. I now believe the United States now
has a better change at containing the pandemic than Europe.
The problem here and especially in countries other that the USA is that the patient needs
a car. Walk-in testing is more difficult to organize as the patients need to be isolated from
each other. The simplest test would be one were the test subject swabs his own mouth, puts
the swab in a plastic tube and seals it in an envelope.
In the mean time Sweden has stopped testing all together, except for hospital patients.
Britain and Finland have followed suit. People with symptoms are simple told to lock
themselves up in their homes and not come out for two weeks. The Chinese edition of the
Global Times has called the Swedes out for the
surrender monkeys they are.
Containing an epidemic and avoiding a pandemic requires testing large parts of the
population to locate any unknown cluster of infections. Once a case is found, the anti-corona
task force must locate all contacts, test them and place them under quarantine even if they
do not show symptoms.
In most countries COVID-19 is regional with one province (and within this province one large city) as the epicenter.
Jim Bianco's model is too primitive and as such unnecessary alarmist.
The early stages of any flu epidemic are always exponential. But from some point propagation slows down considerably as the
virus has difficulties to find new vulnerable people either because number of people with immunity increases (COVID-19 on average
lasts less then a month; often just two weeks and around 90% of cases are mild ), or the measures were taken to "flatten the curve",
or the weather or other conditions became unfavorable to the virus.
Current exponential growth can also be explained by the fact that CDC completely botched testing. So a better availability
of tests with time produces a false exponential increase in cases.
In a sense the first half of March in the USA corresponds to the first half of Jan in Wuhan when the authorities did not yet
resort to drastic actions (especially true for NYC, which looks like a giant cruise ship to me with all corresponding problems
with AC, high density of population, frequent interaction with sick people via public transport including subway as infection
points, etc ).
This is also the period when the medical personnel became the most prominent victim of the authorities incompetence.
I am no so much concerned with number of infection among "commoners" as with the number of infections of medical personnel.
Depletion of medical personnel will greatly complicate the picture.
Working in hazmat suits exhaust people, especially women, very quickly and thus make them more susceptible to the infection.
In many cases you also need to wear adult pampers. It might well be that this is an overkill for this particular infection and
less drastic measures like surgical scrubs can be as effective to protect medical workers.
Research published in Feb had found that out of 138 patients studied at one Wuhan hospital, 29% were healthcare workers. Over
3K medical workers in China were infected and at least 18 died with ~ half of them under 40. Looks like heavy contact with infected
patients make medical workers prognosis worse than for "commoners"
Retired people over 70 now should self-quarantine and outside of senior facilities they are by-and-large responsible for their
own health. When I see them on cruse ships in late Feb and March I just think how many reckless persons are among older folk.
Most of them are also wealthy enough to order food via home delivery, not to drive to the store.
Still on recent visit to department store there were a lot of grannies in the lines (and completely depleted shelves ;-). Looks
like they are braving possible infection with the regular flu, if not coronavirus as typically several people cough within the
large store.
There should be some level of individual responsibility here , especially among seniors who are retired.
But, at the same time, "Whom the Gods would destroy they first make mad"
likbez , March 16, 2020 12:34 am
Terry, March 15, 2020 7:25 pm
Thanks for your last comment Run. You saved me the trouble.
Famous quote “They had learned nothing and forgotten nothing” is applicable to the current situation in the USA. Looks like
the US authorities learned nothing from SARC epidemics, which BTW hit Toronto.
Let me clarify my previous post (which does suffers from wordiness as run75441 correctly pointed out).
There are two diseases bunged into one in COVID-19: one is flu-like and is no threat (just a nuisance and Bert Schlitz is absolutely
correct about this part) and the second is the SARC-like destructive virus pneumonia which is an extremely serious threat that
has long time health consequences for survivors (lung fibrosis of various degrees similar to those which is the consequence of
pneumonia caused by electronic cigarettes.)
Those curves above do not distinguish between them and as such have no value.
IMHO the curves that matter are “serious and critical cases” and the “medical workers who are in serious or critical conditions.”
Fresh air, sunlight and improvised face masks seemed to work a century ago; and they might
help us now.
When new, virulent diseases emerge, such SARS and Covid-19, the race begins to find new
vaccines and treatments for those affected. As the current crisis unfolds, governments are
enforcing quarantine and isolation, and public gatherings are being discouraged. Health
officials took the same approach 100 years ago, when influenza was spreading around the world.
The results were mixed. But records from the 1918 pandemic suggest one technique for dealing
with influenza -- little-known today -- was effective. Some hard-won experience from the
greatest pandemic in recorded history could help us in the weeks and months ahead.
Influenza patients getting sunlight at the Camp Brooks emergency open-air hospital in
Boston. Medical staff were not supposed to remove their masks. (National Archives)
Put simply, medics found that severely ill flu patients nursed outdoors recovered better
than those treated indoors. A combination of fresh air and sunlight seems to have prevented
deaths among patients; and infections among medical staff. There is scientific support for
this. Research shows that outdoor air is a natural disinfectant. Fresh air can kill the flu
virus and other harmful germs. Equally, sunlight is germicidal and there is now evidence it can
kill the flu virus .
`Open-Air' Treatment in 1918
During the great pandemic, two of the worst places to be were military barracks and
troop-ships. Overcrowding and bad ventilation put soldiers and sailors at high risk of catching
influenza and the other infections that often followed it. As with the current Covid-19
outbreak, most of the victims of so-called `Spanish flu' did not die from influenza: they died
of pneumonia and other complications.
When the influenza pandemic reached the East coast of the United States in 1918, the city of
Boston was particularly badly hit. So the State Guard set up an emergency hospital. They took
in the worst cases among sailors on ships in Boston harbour. The hospital's medical officer had
noticed the most seriously ill sailors had been in badly-ventilated spaces. So he gave them as
much fresh air as possible by putting them in tents. And in good weather they were taken out of
their tents and put in the sun. At this time, it was common practice to put sick soldiers
outdoors. Open-air therapy, as it was known, was widely used on casualties from the Western
Front. And it became the treatment of choice for another common and often deadly respiratory
infection of the time; tuberculosis. Patients were put outside in their beds to breathe fresh
outdoor air. Or they were nursed in cross-ventilated wards with the windows open day and night.
The open-air regimen remained popular until antibiotics replaced it in the 1950s.
Doctors who had first-hand experience of open-air therapy at the hospital in Boston were
convinced the regimen was effective. It was adopted elsewhere. If one report is correct, it
reduced deaths among hospital patients from 40 per cent to about 13 per cent. According to the
Surgeon General of the Massachusetts State Guard:
`The efficacy of open air treatment has been absolutely proven, and one has only to try it
to discover its value.'
Fresh Air is a Disinfectant
Patients treated outdoors were less likely to be exposed to the infectious germs that are
often present in conventional hospital wards. They were breathing clean air in what must have
been a largely sterile environment. We know this because, in the 1960s, Ministry of Defence
scientists proved that fresh air is a natural disinfectant. Something in it, which they called
the Open Air Factor, is far more harmful to airborne bacteria -- and the influenza virus --
than indoor air. They couldn't identify exactly what the Open Air Factor is. But they found it
was effective both at night and during the daytime.
Their research also revealed that the Open Air Factor's disinfecting powers can be preserved
in enclosures -- if ventilation rates are kept high enough. Significantly, the rates they
identified are the same ones that cross-ventilated hospital wards, with high ceilings and big
windows, were designed for. But by the time the scientists made their discoveries, antibiotic
therapy had replaced open-air treatment. Since then the germicidal effects of fresh air have
not featured in infection control, or hospital design. Yet harmful bacteria have become
increasingly resistant to antibiotics.
Sunlight and Influenza Infection
Putting infected patients out in the sun may have helped because it inactivates the
influenza virus. It also kills bacteria that cause lung and other infections in hospitals.
During the First World War, military surgeons routinely used sunlight to heal infected wounds.
They knew it was a disinfectant. What they didn't know is that one advantage of placing
patients outside in the sun is they can synthesise vitamin D in their skin if sunlight is
strong enough. This was not discovered until the 1920s. Low vitamin D levels are now linked to
respiratory infections and may increase susceptibility to influenza . Also, our body's
biological rhythms appear to influence how we resist infections. New research suggests they can
alter our inflammatory response to the flu virus. As with vitamin D, at the time of the 1918
pandemic, the important part played by sunlight in synchronizing these rhythms was not
known.
Face Masks Coronavirus and Flu
Surgical masks are currently in short supply in China and elsewhere. They were worn 100
years ago, during the great pandemic, to try and stop the influenza virus spreading. While
surgical masks may offer some protection from infection they do not seal around the face. So
they don't filter out small airborne particles. In 1918, anyone at the emergency hospital in
Boston who had contact with patients had to wear an improvised face mask. This comprised five
layers of gauze fitted to a wire frame which covered the nose and mouth. The frame was shaped
to fit the face of the wearer and prevent the gauze filter touching the mouth and nostrils. The
masks were replaced every two hours; properly sterilized and with fresh gauze put on. They were
a forerunner of the N95 respirators in use in hospitals today to protect medical staff against
airborne infection.
Temporary Hospitals
Staff at the hospital kept up high standards of personal and environmental hygiene. No doubt
this played a big part in the relatively low rates of infection and deaths reported there. The
speed with which their hospital and other temporary open-air facilities were erected to cope
with the surge in pneumonia patients was another factor. Today, many countries are not prepared
for a severe influenza pandemic. Their health services will be overwhelmed if there is one.
Vaccines and antiviral drugs might help. Antibiotics may be effective for pneumonia and other
complications. But much of the world's population will not have access to them. If another 1918
comes, or the Covid-19 crisis gets worse, history suggests it might be prudent to have tents
and pre-fabricated wards ready to deal with large numbers of seriously ill cases. Plenty of
fresh air and a little sunlight might help too.
Not a very pretty read. Those who get the virus bad, and survive the pneumonia, are likely
to have pretty scarred up lungs once they recover, if we can call it that. Let's hope not.
But with the Han Chinese supposedly having a vastly larger ACE-2 presence in their lungs than
other races, it would seem this virus is uniquely able (designed?) to cripple the Chinese
long-term, via creating a vast population of people with significant pulmonary problems
(pulmonary fibrosis) for the remainder of their lives, and perhaps more likely to have
terrible problems requiring extensive medical care should they ever become re-infected in the
future. All of which would be significant burdens on the PRC's future.
Hopefully, the Chinese government's overwhelming response to the virus will minimize this
possibility.
Let's also hope this nasty bug doesn't decimate the seniors in the USA. If it does, one
can already hear the MSM whipping the proles into an anti-China frenzy with, "Them damn
Chinese killed your grandma and grandpa!"
And if the virus was engineered, maybe that was some pre-planned fortuitous blow-back that
cuts down on the aging boomer "useless eaters" (as the supreme useless eater Dick Cheney
called them), and which thereby offers enormous opportunities for world-wide anti-China
propagandizing (and perhaps even a possible casus belli for the next president to mull over
after the 2020 election .. )
There is a wide divergence in the death rates between countries. Those that bent the
curve enough to keep their health care providers from being overwhelmed and who have
enough tests administered to get a better count of infections, seem to be slightly less
than 1% mortality. Those with overwhelmed systems and hospitals are 3 or 4% or higher.
That is still close to 10 times the flu at best. If we do get to the "overwhelmed"
category, the death rate may go much much higher.
If a situation with the CAVID-19 coronavirus infection follows the same scenario as the SARS
epidemic, then by April- May the problem will be less acute. In his interview to the RT the academic Alexander
Chuchalin, the Head of Department of Hospital therapy of the Russian National Research Medical Pirogov University. In
his opinion, the Russian healthcare system has done its best to protect the country from coronavirus. The doctor also
says that, contrary to popular belief, infection with CAVID-19 can be accompanied by a runny nose.
Q: Not only are you one of the best pulmonologists in Europe, you are also in the main risk
group now for coronavirus. Could you, please, give some recommendations for people of your generation and those who
are younger, those who, as we see, are really susceptible to high mortality -- especially in China, Italy, and Iran.
A: In order to understand the risk groups for this disease: first of all, these are people who
come into contact with animals that represent a biological reservoir. For example, in 2002 it was African cats, in
2012 it was camels, and now the science is a little confused, it has not been fully established. There is more
evidence that this is a certain kind of bat -- the one that the Chinese eat.
This bat spreads the coronavirus through its bowel movements. After that a seeding process
takes place. Let's say, it's a seafood market or some other products, and so on. But, right now we're talking about
an epidemic, we are talking about people infecting people. Therefore, this phase has already arrived. The infection
spreads person to person.
Coronaviruses are a very, very common viral infections, and people encounter them many, many
times in their lives. Within a year a child carries diseases that we call acute colds up to ten times. And behind
this acute cold are certain viruses.
And the second place in its prevalence is occupied by the coronavirus. The problem is that
these seemingly harmless pathogens were dismissed, and they could never understand the cause-and-effect relationship
between a common cold and a virus. If, say, a child has a cold, he has a runny nose, what will follow? And so on. For
about two weeks, a child or an adult gets sick -- and all this disappears without a trace.
But in 2002, 2012, and now in 2020, the situation has changed qualitatively. Because the
serotypes that have started to circulate they affect the epithelial cells.
Epithelial cells are cells that line the respiratory tract, gastrointestinal tract, and urinary
system. Therefore, a person infected has pulmonary symptoms and intestinal symptoms. And in the study of urine tests,
too, allocate with such a viral load.
But these new strains, which we are now talking about, they have these properties -- to come
into contact with the second type of receptor, the angiotensin-converting enzyme. And this receptor is associated
with such a serious manifestation as cough.
Therefore, a patient who has symptoms of damage to the lower respiratory tract, a
characteristic sign is a cough. This affects the epithelial cells of the most distal parts of the respiratory tract.
These breathing tubes are very small.
Q: Distal, is it distant?
A: It's far and small in diameter.
Q: So this is what we have next to the bronchi?
A: This is bronchi, then we have bronchioles, respiratory bronchioles. And when the air, the
diffusion of gases goes on the surface of the alveoli, they pass just this section of the respiratory tract.
Q: That is, the primary symptom is a cough
A: No, the first is a runny nose, and a sore throat.
Q: They say that there is no runny nose.
A: No, these are big data issues. 74 thousand medical records were processed, and all of them
have rhinorrhea (runny nose. – RT). When you are told this -- there are really some nuances. Biology is like this. The
biological target of the virus is epithelial cells. The nose, oropharyngeal region, trachea, and then small
bronchioles, targeting these regions are especially dangerous to humans. And it turned out that, having this
mechanism, the virus leads to a sharp breakdown of the immune system.
Q:Why?
A: An explanation that science gives today is that a protein called interferoninduced
protein-10 is involved in the process. It is with this protein that the regulation of innate immunity and acquired
immunity is associated. How should we see this? As a very deep damage to lymphocytes.
Q: So you can see lymphocytes falling immediately on the general test?
A: Yes. And if there are white blood cells increase, platelets will increase, and it is more
stable lymphopenia, that is, the lymphotoxic effect of the viruses themselves. Therefore,
the disease itself has at least four outlined stages.
The first stage is virusemia. A harmless cold,
nothing special. Seven days, nine-approximately in this interval.
But starting from the ninth day to the 14th,
the
situation changes qualitatively, because
it is during this period that viral and bacterial
pneumonia is formed.
After damage to epithelial cells in the anatomical space of the respiratory
tract, colonization of microorganisms occurs, primarily those that inhabit the human oropharyngeal region.
Q: Do you mean bacteria that is already there?
A: Bacteria, Yes. Therefore, these pneumonias are always viral and bacterial.
Q: So the virus, so to speak, fills the alveoli, where some bacteria live all the time? And
they live somewhere by themselves, in some quantity?
A: In general, we believe that the lower respiratory tract is sterile. This is how the defense
mechanism works for the lower respiratory tract.
Q: There's nothing there?
A: It's not inhabited. When the virus has entered and it has broken this barrier, where there
was a sterile environment in the lungs, microorganisms begin to colonize and multiply.
Q: So it's not a virus that causes pneumonia? Still, pneumonia is caused by bacteria, of
course.
A: It's the association of virus-bacteria.
This is the window where the doctor must show his skill. Because often the virusemic period is
like a mild disease, like a slight cold, malaise, runny nose, a slight temperature is small, subfebrile. But the
period when the cough increased and when there is a shortness of breath -- these are two signs that say: stop, this is
a qualitatively different patient.
If this situation is not controlled and the disease progresses, then more serious complications
occur. We call it respiratory distress syndrome, shock. A person cannot breathe on their own.
Q: Pulmonary edema?
A: You see, there are a lot of different edemas of a lung. In fact, it depends on how it
happens. To be precise, we call this non-cardiogenic pulmonary edema. If, say, cardiogenic pulmonary edema can be
treated with certain medications, then this pulmonary edema can only be treated with a mechanical ventilation machine
or advanced methods such as extracorporeal hemoxygenation.
If a person transfers to this phase, the immunosuppression caused by the defeat of the acquired
and innate immunity becomes fatal and the patient is joined by such aggressive pathogens as Pseudomonas aeruginosa,
fungi. And the cases of death that occurred -- 50% of those who were on artificial ventilation for a long time, the
alveoli are all filled with fungi.
Fungi appear during the stage of deep immunosuppression. What is the fate of the man who
endured all this? That is, he suffered virusemic period, he suffered viral-bacterial pneumonia, he suffered
respiratory distress syndrome, non-cardiogenic pulmonary edema, and he suffered septic pneumonia. Will he be healthy
or not? And, in fact, today the world is concerned about this: what is the fate of those 90 thousand Chinese who have
suffered a coronavirus infection?
Q: But those 90 thousand -- they recovered by themselves, they weren't kept on on a ventilator,
they did not get fungi. ARI or acute respiratory infection, that's it?
A: But the problem itself is very important. Because practical medicine is faced with the fact
of a sharp increase in the so-called pulmonary fibrosis. And this group of people who have had a corona virus
infection develops fibrosis of the lung within a year.
Q: That is, when the lung tissue thickens?
A: Yes. A lung becomes like burnt rubber, if the analogy is to be made.
Q: Say, you get an elderly person who has been accurately diagnosed with a coronavirus. And he
is not yet on the ninth day, that is, he does not need to be put on a ventilator yet. How will you treat him?
A: You know what the problem is: we do not treat such patients yet, because there are no
medications, medicines that should be used in this phase. There is no panacea. Because a drug that would act on
virusemia, on the viral-bacterial phase, on non-cardiogenic pulmonary edema, on sepsis -- is a panacea, this drug
doesn't exist.
Because if we go back to the experience of 2002, when we saw the vulnerability of medical
personnel, doctors and nurses were recommended to use Tamiflu and oseltamivir -- an anti-influenza drug. And with
certain serotypes of the coronavirus, indeed, the mechanism of introduction into the cell is the same as with
influenza viruses. Therefore, it has been shown that these drugs can protect individuals who are at high risk of
developing this disease.
Or, he is identified as a carrier of the virus, he is given these drugs and so on. But this, I
want to say again, has no serious evidence base. The situation that is most threatening, because it determines the
fate of a person. A cold is one thing. And another thing a viral-bacterial pneumonia, it is a fundamentally different
thing.
And here it is very important to emphasize that it is problematic to help such a patient only
with antibiotics. There must be a combination therapy, which includes means that stimulate the immune system. This is
a very important point.
Q: What do you mean? So, relatively speaking, you will prescribe him Amoxiclav with some kind
of immunomodulator?
A: Yes, we would usually prescribe fourth-generation cephalosporins, not Amoxiclav, in
combination with vancomycin. This combination is broad, because very quickly there is a process of a change of
gram-positive and gram-negative flora. But what immunomodulatory drug to prescribe is a question for scientific
research.
So, we understand that the immune system will suffer dramatically. We understand the high
vulnerability of a person to the infection that begins to colonize the respiratory tract. So, unfortunately, we don't
have a clear line. But what really can help such patients in this situation is immunoglobulins. Because this is
substitution therapy.
And therefore, such patients are prescribed high immunoglobulins so that they do not develop
sepsis, at least they do not enter the sepsis phase. American doctors used this drug in their Ebola patient. This is
a group drug, an analog of nucleosides. This is a group of drugs that are used for herpes, cytomegalovirus, and so
on.
Q: So this is antiviral or antiviral-supporting therapy, right?
A: No, this is a drug that still acts on the mechanisms in the cell that resist virus
replication. Here in my hands (photo of US President Donald trump. – RT). He gathered all the top people who could
speak out on promising drugs. Two questions that he raised, he was preparing for this conference. The first question
is: how ready are scientists in the United States of America to introduce the vaccine?
Q: Eighteen months.
A: Yes, absolutely. That's two years. He asked what in this case? Does the country have drugs
that could protect? And, as a matter of fact, they said: Yes, there is such a drug.
Q: What?
A:What kind of drug is this? It's called Remdesivir
Q: Let's look at it.
A: That's what scientists said, given the experience that we have, and discussions and so on.
Although, of course, there are other drugs that are being actively studied. In general, this direction is very
interesting: in fact, it is considered promising. The use of mesenchymal stem cells is considered promising. But at
what stage?
Q: As a person who has been doing this for many years, treating everything from asthma to
pneumonia, can you somehow try to predict the development of this epidemic, for example, in Russia?
A: I want to say that if we compare Russia with the surrounding world in case of the
coronavirus of 2002. We didn't have a single patient here.
Q: Maybe we just didn't diagnose them?
A: As you know, there are strong aspects of Russian healthcare in this situation, and I would
like to stress this. This is the work of our sanitary and epidemiologic services. They really did their best to
protect our country. This is on one side, as if punitive measures. And on the second side is the work of the Vector
Research Institute, which made diagnostics for the coronavirus in a very short time, and they did everything
absolutely. And it was tested at the CDC, and they got a certificate indicating high specificity and sensitivity.
Q: The Vector diagnostic kit is the only certified
A: Yes.
Q: The virus is already in Russia, no matter how much the sanitary service tries. How do you
think it will develop? Will it end in the spring, for example, with the arrival of summer?
A: You know, I think the picture repeats what it was then with the SARS. If you remember
Q: Then? Do you mean in 2002? When it was SARS?
A: Yes, that's the one. If we follow this scenario, we should say that somewhere in April or
May this problem will become less acute.
Q: Just because of the seasonal cessation of respiratory infections?
A: Yeah. The climate factor and a number of other factors. Now, the trouble, of course, comes
to us not from China, but from Europe. Those who return from these countries, primarily from Italy, today, remember:
Carlo Urbani
. He accomplished a lot of things. I think this is just a hero of a doctor who
has done so much. He was a virologist from Milan.
Q: Back in 2002?
A: He was a WHO expert. I met with him through the World Health Organization. He was on the
list as an expert on coronaviruses. And then he was sent to Hanoi. They were dispatching doctors, and he got to go to
Vietnam. And in Vietnam, when he arrived, there was a panic. Their doctors stopped coming to work. Their medical
staff, also. There had patients, but there wasn't any medical personnel and no doctors.
He assessed the situation. With difficulty, he managed to break it, to remove this panic
situation that was then in the hospital. But most importantly, he began to communicate with the government and said:
close the country to quarantine. That's where it all came from. It came from Urbani. They started to fight back.
Q: The Vietnamese?
A: Yes, the government of Vietnam. That this would affect the economy, tourism, and so on. But,
he found these words, he convinced them. And Vietnam was the first country to come out of this. And he thought his
work was done. He collected material for a virological examination and boarded a plane to Bangkok.
He was supposed to meet with the American virologists there. During the flight, he realized
that he got ill. He got sick, just like those poor Vietnamese in that hospital. And he began to write everything down
and describing it. This is this exact time, and this is how I feel.
Q: The flight was about three hours?
A: Yes, about three hours. And during these three hours, he became an invalid who couldn't get
up and move on his own. Here we see how the window itself works, and we understand when pneumonia joins -- this window
can be extremely, extremely short in duration. And when he was barely able to get down the aircraft ladder, he left
the last entry: "I'm waving to them so they don't come near me."
That is, American virologists wanted to meet Urbani, but he said: let's not contact. He died in
an intensive care unit. And there was an autopsy. And from his lung tissue was isolated a strain that was named after
him – "Urban I-2". Here is a very story that I am telling you. A tragedy, of course.
Q: What would you recommend to a person who finds himself Well, we have already agreed that
the virus is in the general population. We can't really control it anymore.
A: Are you asking for some simple recommendations? First of all, take a good care for the nasal
mucosa and oropharyngeal area.
Q: To wash it with saltwater?
A: Yes, wash it thoroughly. But "lors" – non-prescription medications and sinus cleaners to
stop running nose and for an effective lavage. That is, the feeling of free unobstructed breath should come after
all. The second thing is the oropharyngeal area behind the uvula. And there, too, you need to make a good lavage of
the oropharyngeal region.
Q: So you don't just have to squirt it up your nose, you have to gargle it deep down your
throat?
A: Yes, and rinse it out. And don't be lazy. Do do it until you get a feeling of clean, good
airways. Of all the ways, this is the most effective. I would advise those people who can afford to buy a nebulizer
or
Q: Do you mean, it's aerosol, right? With ultrasound?
A: Yes. And it allows the hygiene of the upper respiratory tract to be brought to a good state.
When a cough starts, it is desirable to still apply the medications that we prescribe for patients with bronchial
asthma. This is either Berodual, or Ventolin, or Salbutamol. Because these drugs improve mucociliary clearance,
relieve spasm.
Q: You mean expectorant?" Mucolytic ACC?
A: Yes, ACC and Fluimucil. And what you can't do is use glucocorticosteroids. This virus
replication is rapidly increasing by them.
Q: What does that mean?
A: Corticosteroids is prednisone, methylprednisolone, dexamethasone, betamethasone.
Q: So you don't need to inject hormones, relatively speaking, if you have a viral infection?
A: There are inhaled steroids. But there are patients with asthma who are ill and are on this
therapy. But this has to be a tailor-made solutions. Of course, 2020 will go down in medical history as a year of a
new disease. We must admit that we have understood this new disease. Two new pneumonias have arrived. First is
pneumonia, which is caused by e-cigarettes, vapes, and now in the United States, people have died from this
Q: several thousand teenagers. Yes, this is a well-known fact, and how to treat it is unclear.
You put them on a ventilator -- they die immediately.
A: Yes. Do you understand what the problem is? Here they develop those changes in the lungs
that occur during this process. They seem to be similar (to the changes from the coronavirus). This is respiratory
distress syndrome, which we are talking about. The literature raises very serious questions: the role of
coronaviruses in transplantation. One of the problems is obliterating bronchiolitis, which occurs especially during
transplantation.
Q: A lung transplant?
A: Yes, lungs and bone marrow. Stem cell. As a matter of fact, everything is well done,
everything is normal, the person has responded to this therapy, and the problem of respiratory failure is beginning
to grow. And the cause of these bronchiolitis was caught -- it is a coronavirus That is, new knowledge has come.
How to treat Coronavirus
infection COVID-19 in
Russian
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I had SARS back then. My regular dentist called sick, and his partner just came from Vietnam.
I was ill bedridden for 6 weeks with a viral pneumonia. Refused to be hospitalized, though.
Socializing was the last thing on my mind.
I can attest from experience that a mixture of salt and warm water is the number one remedie in the arsenal
against these types of infections.
Use it aggressively !
Two to three teaspoons of salt in a glass mixed with warm water. Try to gargle it in small to medium sips
for about 5 minutes. You might not finish the entire glass in 1 sitting. Save the glass.
Repeat this process every 2 to 3 hours. It is one of God's miracles ;-) .
Besides viral infections, you can even cleanse your teeth and gums regularly with salt water.
Another important remedie for soar throats is squeezing half a lemon and mixing it with the highest
quality honey available to you, without diluting the mix in water. Let it burn your throat, if it does, it
will eventually have a soothing feeling after repeated sips and repeating sittings.
I CAN TESTIFY TO THE GREAT EFFECTIVENESS OF NASAL RINSES
If I start nasal rinses as soon as I feel the
throat tickle of a cold coming on, I don't get the cold.
I haven't had one in years.
This year, though, I mustn't had started the rinses soon enough as I did get the cold.
BUT, instead of stopping the rinses, I upped them to every 2hrs & I never had to blow my nose ONCE all
through the two week cold!
AND it wasn't miserable, like usual, at all.
I gradually decreased the frequency of the rinses as the cold got better.
I was continuing the rinses, preventatively, every day, but now with the added risk of COVID-19, I will
increase that to AM & PM, as recommended &, of course, will increase that if I become symptomatic.
As a former yoga teacher I can also recommend Alternate Nostril breathing.
To clean the sinus, clear
the head and calm the mind and spirit. Super essential now to supercharge our bodies with positive energy
and clear the lungs.
I have the advantage of living near a beach and this is part of my daily walk and deep breathing
ritual. I have not had a cold or sniffle for a many years, nor do I ever have the flu injection.
I recently learned of this too Babushka. It's helpful for learning how blocked – often from internal
swelling due to inflammation – they can be. Breathing with both, we learn to interpret the
compensation, so we can easily think "Oh I dont have a problem. This can be wrong, as I discovered I
was.. When I tried to alternate nasal breathe, I was shocked at how I almost couldnt. Breathe, that
is. It was an eye opener for me.
I had been suffering from internal nasal swelling due to my reaction to Salicylates – which I'm
among those people intolerant of. I've had it since childhood but just let it go, eating the fruits I
love so much. But on realising how bad the nasal results were, I got checked for polyps and then just
cut the food out.
I also learned the saline nasal washes from the Indian nurses and Doctors I made friends with years
ago in UK. You dont need a machine – as I'm sure you know. They just pour normal saline** into a
cupped palm of hand, close off the opposite side nasal with opposite hand, and slowly inhale it to
reach the back of the nasal passage, then repeat changing sides.
** N/Saline is roughly 1 tsp salt in 1L water!!
Glad to see you are staying well. Are you as glad as I you dont live in UK, now that we'd be
condemned to isolation for
4 months
And then some wonder why I keep saying – the reaction is out of all proportion to the infection!!
Yes, keeping as well as possible as the insanity descends on this great land.
My husband is a great believer in cold water swimming to keep the immune system in good tune –
does it all year round – every day ritual. Not my thing, but turning the shower to cold for the
last few bursts will also close the pores and boost immunity.
Btw – I am a different person to Babuška, who also lives in Aussie and shares her wonderful
wisdom in the cafe.
"A: Are you asking for some simple recommendations? First of
all, take a good care for the nasal mucosa and oropharyngeal area.
Q: To wash it with saltwater?
A: Yes, wash it thoroughly. But "lors" – non-prescription medications and sinus cleaners to stop running nose
and for an effective lavage. That is, the feeling of free unobstructed breath should come after all. The second
thing is the oropharyngeal area behind the uvula. And there, too, you need to make a good lavage of the
oropharyngeal region.
Q: So you don't just have to squirt it up your nose, you have to gargle it deep down your throat?
A: Yes, and rinse it out. And don't be lazy. Do do it until you get a feeling of clean, good airways. Of all
the ways, this is the most effective. I would advise those people who can afford to buy a nebulizer or
Q: Do you mean, it's aerosol, right? With ultrasound?
A: Yes. And it allows the hygiene of the upper respiratory tract to be brought to a good state. When a cough
starts, it is desirable to still apply the medications that we prescribe for patients with bronchial asthma.
This is either Berodual, or Ventolin, or Salbutamol. Because these drugs improve mucociliary clearance, relieve
spasm."
1. Okay, the "washing with sea water" I associate with the sea water nasal sprays -- is this roughly correct?
2. But what is meant with "lavage"? Gurgling with salt water, say?
3. And then the aerosol thing, what is that? Is this related to the good old method of putting hot water with
something into a bowl, your head over it, and cover with a towel?
WASHING WITH SEA WATER – he is talking about what is called "nasal rinses" also called "nasal washes" or
"nasal lavages" look online for videos how to do it.
LAVAGE – is French for "wash", here he means "nasal
washes" not gurgling.
BOTH nasal washes & gurgling (back of throat) should be done for regular/usual nose & mouth hygiene, to
prevent colds/flu & to relieve cold/flu symptoms.
AEROSOL – no, not putting head over hot water, that's "steam inhalation" aerosol is a fine mist, either
sprayed or inhaled from a device, like for asthma.
Thanks.
I understand now the "nasal washes" part: found
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasal_irrigation
Wikipedia Nasal irrigation
and also found (simple) devices which one can purchase. That solves that.
But the "gurgling" is still
unclear to me. The text sound as if it weren't just ordinary gurgling, but part of the nasal irrigation,
somehow.
Concerning the mist to be inhaled: in recent weeks I was searching for information and devices about
that, but couldn't find much solid information for the simple uses related to colds. So I opted for
buying a simple small device which boils water, and one puts some essential oils in it. This steam
inhalation is traditional, easy to understand, and one feels the effect.
Found
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebulizer
Wikipedia Nebulizer
but that also doesn't speak about the non-medical use. One can buy devices, but information is always
about the medical cases. So for now I stay away from that.
Indeed, I meant "gargling".
For some time I used in the UK the word "gurgling" when I mean "gargling" -- people would then
always "gurgle", but never say something (I guess they thought I wanted to be funny ;-)).
Hi, you can also use a "nebulizer" to nebulize essential oils without water as a carrier: the essential
oils will have an easy way to go deep into the respiratory system. (I would use all kind of soft
essential oils and in some case add a little bit of strong oils).
I made some French and Dutch pages about this, here is a link to an avi, showing the working of such a
nebulizer. Not to confound with the fancy products that use water as a carrier!
No spam intended as I have not enough to sell here anyway I'm in France and we are almost in complete
lockdown anyway now: to moderators)
You also have ventillators that "diffuse" essential oils through a pad, less effective than the "real
nebulizers", but still effectif in hospitals:
Voir aussi :
Voici deux liens (anciens), de l'utilisation de diffuseurs dans l'hôpital de Manchester au Royaume-Uni:
The Russian Academic is a smart fellow, but I think following the money can yield results quicker
and easier. Covid-19 may be a new virus, but the script is old and worn out from overuse. I personally got
acquainted with this bloody script during the aids pandemic. The script albeit macabre, is simple and makes
good business sense. Recurring expenditure by patients makes for guaranteed income for big "Pharma". Hence the
cure for almost all diseases is permanent medication for the patient. This is called "Corporate Interests" and
Doctors, Academics, politicians, me and you are under its complete domination. Summer is coming to the Northern
hemisphere and with it come the reprieve from the pandemic, but please keep your focus on the money for that's
were they will reveal themselves.
I was a bit confused by the Russian academician's assertion that
the lower respiratory tract (lungs etc.) are not inhabited by bacteria. This is not true
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6297685/
Therefore, some of the assertions by the good
physician might be incorrect to some degree.
What is known for sure is that a huge scare campaign is going on among the world's media, and governments
are forced to do things that may not be in the states' best interests. Accompanying this is a distinct lack
of objective information related to the disease and the virus responsible for it.
I hope the discourse turns sane soon; in a large sense, the impact of the virus has been negligible
considering that it has been out there at least for 3 months at the end of the winter season.
I too look forward to understand who will profit from this scare.
Yes Daniel, yes Saji, I happily agree with you. Let's not succumb to fear. Thanks Harry for the salt water
reminder. Thanks translators for this informative Interview.
I must say that I am quite disappointed with both Russia and China in that they are more or less following or
copying the Western model of conventional medicine and it seems either the medical professional there are
either just looking at how to make as much money as possible from human suffering or it's just more "modern" to
adopt the Western way of doing things. The Chinese themselves are abandoning 5000 years of proven traditional
medicine that has shown effectiveness in dealing with almost all disease as well as successfully fighting
various plagues that have attacked their country over the centuries. As is the case, Chinese now want to look
modern and use Western pharmaceuticals. It's a massive shame that Russia and China don't get together and
create a new model of medicine incorporating both traditional and modern scientific means. They both have the
resources, knowledge and ability to do so. People don't even realize the miraculous innovations that Soviet
doctors accomplished but have been lost along with other feats of that era. Western medicine or Big Pharma
preys on people's suffering for the sake of profit. Even Goldman Sachs admitted there is no profit in the cure
of cancer.
Anyway, in regard to the current situation, what I do is follow Dr Andrew Saul's protocol to fight the virus.
It involves cheap and effective vitamins including vitamins C and D3, selenium, zinc and magnesium. Vitamin C
is so so important. Even Chinese doctors are now using it in their fight against the virus. Also I take
elderberry, medicinal mushrooms, olive leaf and other antiviral supplements. I urge you to do an internet
search on these and in particular Andrew Saul's protocol. Additionally, I do a lot of things to strengthen my
immune system like taking infra-red saunas. And if I needed treatment I would consider ozone therapy and
hyperthermia to kill the virus. Listen to podcasts by Gary Null, Mike Adams of Natural News, Dr Ronald Hoffman
of Intelligent Medicine, and a great interviewer on
http://www.extremehealthradio.com
. These guys are a treasure trove of information and who I consider the
real American heroes.
I write this because it's not intended to replace professional medical advice but is only what I do and what I
would do regarding both the coronavirus and good health in general.
But in the end, the current medical system based on greed and profit must be replaced or we will forever see
loved ones needlessly suffer and die.
The conclusion is one that I would advocate based on my life experience:
"We also need to be looking for new approaches for fighting COVID-19. One approach that is not being used
significantly to date is trying to strengthen people's own immune systems. Such an approach might help people's
own immune system to fight off the disease, thereby lowering death rates. Nutrition experts recommend
supplementing diets with Vitamins A, C, E, antioxidants and selenium. Other experts say zinc, Vitamin D and
elderberry may be helpful. Staying away from cold temperatures also seems to be important. Drinking plenty of
water after coming down with the disease may be beneficial as well. If we can help people's own bodies fight
the disease, the burden on the medical system will be lower."
I have rarely suffered from the "flu", maybe 3 or 4 times in my 60+ years, and rarely suffer from colds
(usually ending within 3-4 days). When I do suffer from the latter, it is usually as a result of improper dress
for inclement weather, or a week of inadequate eating; that is, not usually eating a well balanced diet, as I
usually strive to do.
So instead of accentuating the negative, maybe, we should consider strengthening the positive things we can
do. Of course, the aged and infirm need to be dealt with otherwise. But the key for the rest of us is
strengthening our immune systems.
In my experience, the best preventative is an alkaline diet as viruses need a human blood environment that is
slightly more acidic than the normal 7.35 to 7.45 range in order to propagate. I have been 5 years cold/flu
free.
If you start to experience symptoms, one trick to quickly elevate blood pH is to sleep with a piece of
sliced onion (yellow are best) in your socks. The sulfides in the onions will elevate blood pH and by morning
the symptoms are gone.
Following the Scientific way to understand an economic stunt like Covid-19 is time wasting. Big "Pharma" will
come with a solution and it is called lifetime medication (jokingly called 'three times a day). During the Aids
epidemic, I did a lot of research on Virology and Toxicology in order to understand certain logic defying
things regarding the epidemic progression. All I could come up with is that medicine has long parted ways with
objective scientific practice under immense pressure from Big Pharma. People it doesn't pay to cure a disease
but it is highly profitable to come with a so called "life prolonging substance" (aka Patenting)..
Unfortunately during this phase of instilling mortal terror in the masses, a lot of innocent lives will be lost
during the winter season. Things will clear up in summer and by then more information will be available and
patterns would be clearly discernible.
I wonder if the Covid-19 pandemic will subside when the MSM ratings begin to decline because people will be
getting tired of the regurgitated news, and a new news story will come up?
By the way, Russian Doctor
gives very sensible advice. This is the kind of information we should be getting on the MSM, but are not.
I'm not a doctor, but I thought this information was so important, I immediately alerted my doctor. I encourage
everyone else to do so, also. Most of it, we can't actualize, directly. However, the information about lavage
could be life saving, and I haven't heard that ANYWHERE else, certainly not in official pronouncements or
mainstream media. (With one exception, viz. Dr. Oz, I haven't even heard about people boosting their Vitamin D
levels. This, in spite of research showing that going from Vitamin D deficiency to sufficient supplementation
can cut your risk of upper respiratory infection in half.)
I am wondering why this doctor did not mention
Vitamin D, either. Yes, it's of limited usefulness after an infection already sets in, but, at least in the US,
we are looking at the medical system getting overwhelmed. Some people put Vitamin D deficiency levels in the US
at 40%. If we can cut the risk of needing a ventilator in half, for 40% of the population, that might flatten
the curve enough to avoid forcing doctors to cut off treatment to people over a certain age. (I have read that
this is being done in Italy, though I don't know, for sure.)
Note to commentator: moderation policy is no use of caps .. caps have been
removed mod
put in an essential oil diffuser or a deep lung nebulizer
3% hydrogen peroxide ( phew! is really strong, go easy)
2 drops of iodine
colloidal silver ( my little generator makes 12ppm)
Probably the total liquid amount will be 50cc or 1/8 cup? depending on the capacity of your device. Usually
respiratory treatments are from 10-15 minutes. My guess would be to mix the colloidal silver 2:1 as a liquid
base. Colloidal silver is touted to interfere with viral wall and its replication abilities.
Thank you so much Scott for translating this important information – I am going to email to family and friends.
Also going to stock up on more salt. Already do the Vit D.
Funnily enough my mother said to me back in early
February that gargling and cleansing with salt water was the best thing to use to avoid the Covid 19
virus she was so right!
Why aren't our governments, health services and media telling us to do this? Such a simple thing that
everyone can afford to do ..I think we all know .
Well, this is not 'just a cold'. It is much worse. This finally would explain the extraordinary measures taken
worldwide to try and contain it.
And I'm 66.
Birdseed. The Russians seem to have left a clue. One should ask what the number is of this useful protein. If
it is Nsp15 it is in my exotic birds' mix. I ordered 8 pounds of the specific seed which were delivered last
Thursday and will order another batch when possible. If the virus doesn't get me, my husband will. I am no
scientist but there are some coincidences here.
I knew researchers were homing in on Nsp15 and this is what gets interesting. Virology gives the role of
Nsp15 in coronavirus replication as enigmatic. When I read virology I thought-weird- Nsp15 is acting like two
different proteins. Then I saw Favorov's explanation, the real protein and an imposter protein.
"EndoU-deficient coronaviruses were viable and replicated to near wild-type virus levels in fibroblast cells."
This would explain why the elderly are hit hardest.
Tuesday, March 3, 2020 2:19PM
RIVERSIDE (KABC) -- A team that includes UC Riverside researchers has identified a protein in a virus from the
previous decade that might prove beneficial in developing a vaccine to combat novel coronavirus, according to
the university.
Researchers isolated a protein designated, designated as "Nsp15," from the severe acute respiratory syndrome
– SARS – outbreak of 2003 that could be useful in testing for vaccines intended to prevent or reduce the threat
of coronavirus, also known as COVID-19. The protein found in coronavirus is 89% identical to a protein
discovered in SARS, suggesting that drugs developed to treat that disease could work for the current outbreak
plaguing countries around the world.
Virology. 2018 Apr;517:157-163. doi: 10.1016/j.virol.2017.12.024.
EpuCoronavirus EndoU is encoded within the sequence of nonstructural
protein (nsp) 15, which was initially identified as a component of the
viral replication complex. Biochemical and structural studies revealed
the enzymatic nature of nsp15/EndoU, which was postulated to be
essential for the unique replication cycle of viruses in the order
Nidovirales. However, the role of nsp15 in coronavirus replication was
enigmatic as EndoU-deficient coronaviruses were viable and replicated
to near wild-type virus levels in fibroblast cells. A breakthrough in
our understanding of the role of EndoU was revealed in recent studies,
which showed that EndoU mediates the evasion of viral double-stranded
RNA recognition by host sensors in macrophages. This new discovery of
nsp15/EndoU function leads to new opportunities for investigating how
a viral EndoU contributes to pathogenesis and exploiting this enzyme
for therapeutics and vaccine design against pathogenic coronaviruses.
PLANdemic is a new word that is becoming very popular. Here is a nice overview of the medical marshal law, and
how it all came about. Very detailed and superbly researched.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xW2oHhN3heo
Saw lots of military today in my area, and yet I feel like
there is something isn't working for the insects who self-elected themselves to rule over humanity. The theater
curtains are full of holes, and too many people can see the genocidal actors and their pathetic scripts.
Assuming that I French kiss a person who has covid, how much time from the moment that kiss is ended, if any,
do I have to wash away "all traces" of that kiss from my mouth in order to prevent being infected with covid?
A. Impossible to prevent infection. B. Mere seconds. C. A few minutes. D. An hour. E. 24 hours.
Assuming that I "catch" covid from an infected person TODAY, in exactly how much time will the most
sensitive test available report/confirm that I am indeed infected with covid? A. An hour. B. 24 hours. C. 48
hours. D. 72 hours. E. 7 days. F. 14 days. G. 30 days? What is the market name for the most sensitive test
available for earliest possible detection? How do the 15-minute, Chinese-developed blood tests stack up against
the most sensitive?
Assuming that I "catch" the covid infection today, in exactly how much time will/can the covid in ME be
transmitted to others? For example, if I sneeze into the air
tomorrow
and someone inhales some of those
droplets, will those droplets "infect" that person with covid? If not tomorrow, how many days down the road?
Money, Money, Money Trump language yet another example of obscene unveiled greed it will not go down well with
the Germans.
A quote from the below link
"According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing
everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, "but for the US only".
The German government was reportedly offering its own financial incentives for the vaccine to stay in the
country.
The German health minister Jens Spahn said that a takeover of the CureVac company by the Trump
administration was "off the table". CureVac would only develop vaccine "for the whole world", Spahn said, "not
for individual countries".
Excellent article, thank you Saker and Scott for the translation. I have five questions.
1. Can a person be
infected with influenza and coronavirus at the same time? I ask because there is an epidemic of influenza in
the U.S. with 29,000,000 (29 million) so far and the symptoms are nearly the same between them (e.g., coughing,
sneezing, body chill, muscle ache, intestinal disorder, fever.)
2. We read of the horrific numbers coming out of Italy. Are there different strains of coronavirus active,
some being more virulent than others? Can those different strains be identified by microscopic examination?
3. Did Dr. Chuchalin have an opinion as to whether this epidemic of coronavirus was developed in a
laboratory as oppose to in nature?
4. Did Dr. Chuchalin have an opinion about more than one "patient zero" originating from geographic
locations other than from Wuhan, China?
5. Vaccines such as for influenza introduce antigens to stimulate the immune system and create antibodies to
neutralize that particular strain of the virus. Every year a vaccine is created to address new strains of the
flu. However if a person does not receive the yearly vaccine (like me), the body will fight off the infection
and once an antibody has been produced, a copy remains in the body so that if the same antigen appears again,
it can be dealt with more quickly.
My question: If a person contracts cononavirus and successfully recovers through normal palliative care,
does he/she now have immunity to that strain of coronavirus like what happens with influenza?
Warning here about nasal rinses. My Doctor was adamant never ever use regular water it is extremely dangerous.
The water has to be sterile which means buy distilled water otherwise you are playing a very dangerous game one
that will kill you.
The question was posed can one have two viral infections at the same time? Since in the USA the medical
incompetents did not test, no one knows what they have when they exhibit symptoms unless the person becomes
critical.
The first testing in the USA took 24-72 hours because the Feds forbade the state labs from testing
so samples had to be sent to the CDC in Atlanta. Lab testing takes awhile.
Now in the above article Mr.Chuchalin mentions Vector diagnostic kits–with this one can get a result in 10
minutes and the amount of training necessary to administer and read it is minimal. 10 freaking minutes!!!!
So all I can tell you is my experience here at ground zero in Roseville, CA which hosted the first fatality
( at least the first diagnosed one). I had the usual flu which I contained after 10 days. Then I had to have
some very needed dental surgery ( two hours worth) after which strangely enough I contracted an unusual
rhinitis–watery flow from my nose and into the back of my throat. I never get this. Then there came a dry cough
and an ache in my upper chest. ( no temperature and no shortness of breath). I am on antibiotics for the dental
surgery so that actually is good. ( old school ampicillin). So now I have a stint of staying in, gargling to
prevent migration deep into the lungs. , giving myself breathing treatments with colloidal silver, taking all
sorts of anti viral herbal medicines to cut viral reproduction etc. Thanks to the above article I was able to
focus in on what was possibly going on and rather than continue to be puzzled by it or ignore it, I am on it!!!
So, in my opinion,,,yes, one can have two viral infections at once or one after another.
Scary stuff yet surely a vital statistic is missing. These people must have a clear understanding of the
mortality rate associated with this infection. They are locking down the entire world so it seems likely they
would have looked into this a little bit.
The number of celebrities contracting the disease seems to be flatlining possibly because this phenomenon
strongly advertisers a widespread contamination. If such large scale contamination exists in the populace it
follows that the mortality rate is far lower than stated.
Anyway stock markets have crashed but only so far. They are predicting the end of the economic system as we
know it. Someone somewhere does not believe them.
Life saver: Stabilized allicin extracted from garlic (Allimax/AllicinMax). This is such strong medicin to all
kinds of infections that first time users should be aware of the possibility of herxheimer reactions if more
than the recommended amount of capsules are taken.
My brother-in-law suffered from Lyme disease in the brain where it is very hard to get rid of because of the
blood-brain barrier. No medication did him any good until he started taking AllicinMax capsules that cured him
completely.
In case of infection of the lungs allicin in a sterile solution can be inhaled with the help of a nebulizer.
No kidding, 100% corona proof!
French Health Minister Olivier Veran, a qualified doctor and neurologist, on Saturday warned
of certain types of anti-inflammatory drugs that may
worsen the infection and the spread of the coronavirus.
"The taking of anti-inflammatories (ibuprofen, cortisone ) could be a factor in aggravating
the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking
anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor's advice," Veran tweeted.
⚠️ #COVIDー19
| La prise d'anti-inflammatoires (ibuprofène, cortisone, ...) pourrait être un
facteur d'aggravation de l'infection. En cas de fièvre, prenez du
paracétamol.
Si vous êtes déjà sous anti-inflammatoires ou en cas de doute, demandez
conseil à votre médecin.
French heath officials also warned of
using anti-inflammatories as they are known to pose a risk to people with infectious
diseases because they tend to reduce the body's immune system response, according to
The Guardian .
They rather recommend taking paracetamol because "it will reduce the fever without
counterattacking the inflammation".
"Anti-inflammatory
drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection," warned
Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse Hospital, according to The
Guardian.
The French Health Ministry has reportedly been advising patients since mid-January to
consult pharmacies when purchasing common pain relievers such as ibuprofen, paracetamol and
aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.
France is one of the worst-affected countries in Europe, which has been declared a new virus
hotspot after infections on the continent rose dramatically this month, while those in China
have been reported to be leveling off.
On Saturday, French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe
announced that the number of infection cases in France jumped 4,499, among which 154 are in
critical condition, whereas the death toll had risen to 91 people.
Philippe has also announced that the country would shut most shops, restaurants and
entertainment facilities beginning midnight on Saturday and people should stay home as long as
possible as the spread of coronavirus accelerates.
As part of the country's response to the pandemic, a number of iconic monuments in Paris
have been closed, including the Eiffel Tower, the Louvre Museum, the Versailles Palace, Louvre,
Orsay Museum and Centre Pompidou.
That same year, another scientists named Dana Willner led a virus-hunting expedition of her
own. Instead of a cave, she dove into the human body. Willner had people cough up sputum into a
cup, and out of that fluid she and her colleagues fished out frag- ments of DNA. They compared
the DNA fragments to millions of sequences stored in online databases. Much of the DNA was hu-
man, but many fragments came from viruses. Before Willner's ex- pedition, scientists had
assumed the lungs of healthy people were sterile. Yet Willner discovered that, on average,
people have 174 species of viruses in the lungs. Only 10 percent of the species Will- ner found
bore any close kinship to any virus ever found before.
We dont actually know the CFR for covid-19 or influenza. Few people are tested for
influenza. Cdc uses models. Cdc says between about 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal
flu-related deaths have occurred in people 65 years and older. A typical year has 30,000 flu
deaths so thats 20,000 -25,000 deaths in elderly per year and thats with vaccination.
The elderly with severe pneumonia from flu requiring a hospital stay have a 20% fatality
rate
The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than
current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently
mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.
We shouldn't be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs
were also exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates of 12% CFR,
declined to 1.28 percent in the end (probably overstated since cdc recommended no testing by
summer of 2009 and used models ). In Wuhan, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus
spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the
reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more
asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. John Hopkins
University published a report suggesting actual cases in Hubei were an order of magnitude
higher since they did few testing for 2 months, testing only serious/cases. That brings the cfr
down in hubei to 0.3% like the rest of China which is heavily polluted with most of the male
population smoking
In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day,
or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. Many of these deaths results from
diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway
whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe
COVID-19 cases. During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around
25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic
diseases listed above are prevalent.
This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on
board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus . Of those, more than half are
asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were tested in China. With flu we know 16% of
those infected are asymptomatic. Some estimates put it as high as 60%. Especially if you use
pcr tests which dont tell you anything about if thr RNA fragments were from currently
infectious particles. On the Diamond Princess, 7 deaths have occurred among the passengers,
constituting a case fatality rate of 1% percent. 0.2% of the ships passengers died. All of the
passengers were elderly while the younger crew members /passengers were much better off. Its
not unknown what percentage of passengers were elderly but lets assume 25%. That gives a
fatality rate among the elderly of 0.8%. Same as flu.
@Anonymous
(n) 60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported
dead due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some
cold or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got
there first.
@John Dowser #130
Zero credibility numbers.
Of the 3500 people trapped on the first cruise ship - less than 20% got it. You can't get a
better infection setup than having people breathing the same air with infected people, with
another 1000 service people sharing a huge dorm with no walls and bringing food to
everyone.
So 20% is very likely the worst case in 1 year.
1% of that is still bad, but again, a function of timing. Are they evenly spread out over,
say, 6 week time frames? Then its bad but doable.
If they're getting it all in the same quarter, then it is really bad.
But that's why states are ordering lockdowns: pro and college sports cancelled,
music/entertainment cancelled, conferences etc.
@conspiracy theorists: try and use some critical thinking.
We have had a number of novel viruses break out in the recent past: Ebola, swine flu, SARS,
MERS among the major ones.
Why is it so surprising that we finally got one that happens to be significantly
transmissible (unlike SARS), deadly but not too deadly (unlike Ebola) and situated in a
region where people travel to/from a lot (unlike MERS)?
Secondly, the genetic sequencing is quite advanced and in the hands of a lot of different
people. There is a 96% match between Wuhan bat coronavirus and nCOV; 99% match between
pangolin coronavirus and nCOV. Secondly, viruses in general mutate because they are mostly
really shitty in error correcting when replicating - so we know they will change over
time.
The reality is that governments and scientists simply do not have the capabilities to
design a virus to this specification - at least, not yet.
In another article, Foreign Policy also suggests the pandemic should be a reason to
suspend the presidential election campaigning in the US. Opening the article with the
foreboding line:
It's time to ask, during a time of plague, whether -- and if so, in what form -- democracy
can continue as usual.
Which means no big crowds chanting Bernie's name, no televised debates where Biden forgets
where he is, and no lines of voters being turned away from the democrat primaries over
"misunderstandings".
The article even dances around the idea of postponing the vote itself. Voting "during a
time of plague" can have an impact on the turnout and result, Laurie Garrett argues. She
stops short of that, but only because "Orange Man Bad". If it was Hillary in the White House,
not Trump, the media would already have vociferously called for a postponement of the election
altogether.
As it is, they make do with this:
Actual voting can, and should, proceed with heavy emphasis on mailed ballots .
Total tested: 37,746
Total tested positive: 1,140
Infected as a percentage: 3%
Total deaths: 21
Mortality rate: 1.8%
Deaths as a percentage of all tested: 0.06%
Is this a catastrophe? Well I did a bit of extrapolating and found that, projected onto
the UK population (given as 66.44 million), the total number of deaths we could expect would
be just under 40,000. Sounds impressive – until you look at the 21 victims and consider
the age groupings:
CCTV footage has captured the moment toilet paper-hungry Australians caused unrest at an
Aldi store where a crowd of shoppers can be seen rushing down an aisle to claim the scarce
commodity before it was all taken.
I honestly never thought this would happen in my own country and I feel disgusted by this
behavior. 3 people over the ages of 70 have died in the entire nation or 30 million people.
Stop being selfish and ridiculous. This is not they end of the world and if citizens went
about their shopping as per normal there would be plenty for all. I have 4 rolls in my
cupboard at home and no idea where to buy more but I'll do the best with what I've got. its
worrying me that people in a 1st world nation have fallen to these lows.
The only reason there is a shortage here in America is because of the media. They have
everyone so panicked that if one person sneezes 9 others shit their pants in fear.
Sorry. Hysteria. China which was ground zero for this particular flavor of a respiratory
virus only had about 81,000 cases (so far) out of a population of how many billions? These
projections that posit that half the US population will become infected are wildly excessive.
And, yes, the fatality rate for COVID 19 is larger than the seasonal flu, it's larger than a
small number which is, itself, a small number. You guys have been watching too much disaster
porn.
Siotu
Testing for coronavirus in an autopsy or living person is as easy as looking through a
microscope and positively identifying the virus. Just a bit slow or labour-electron
microscope intensive for wholesale testing of populations.
I would like someone to explain why there have been so few infections and even fewer
fatalities on board the cruise ships.
We have 9000 (nine thousand) people, the majority of whom are well over the age of 50,
aboard 3 ships that have lived at very close quarters, in a confined environment where
Covid19 had been detected.
Where are the infections and where are the dead? By my last count, 6 elderly passengers
from the Diamond Princess passed away of complications related to Covid19. It is now over 6
weeks since that incident has taken place. In California, so far, 1 former passenger from the
Grand Princess has succumbed and there seems to be 29 infected people that are now under
observation or in care.
"... The "worst case scenario" doesn't look very credible. If less than 20% of the people on a cruise ship - trapped for multiple weeks - contracted nCOV, the notion that 2/3rds of Americans will seems far too high. ..."
"... And just for extra fun: The number of hospital beds in the US declined 5% from 2005 to 2017 ..."
"... The explosion of hate and blame and fear flying around online with regard to this pandemic is more than alarming and ultimately useless and damaging. In a way it scares me more than the flu itself at the moment because of the implications of how it will hinder our ability to cooperate and deal with this. ..."
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to
be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
Why are you stoking this irrational panic? Quoting the New York Times. What's the matter with
you? I find it reassuring that high profile figures here and there have caught the COVID-19
flu. Madamm Trudeau, President Bolsinaro, etc. When they're back at their regular public
duties in a week or so maybe it will sink into peoples thick skulls what a bunch of scardey
cat ninnies the politicians are. The panic is doing more damage than the virus. IMHO. Time
will tell.
The "worst case scenario" doesn't look very credible. If less than 20% of the people on a
cruise ship - trapped for multiple weeks - contracted nCOV, the notion that 2/3rds of
Americans will seems far too high.
However, a lockdown has its own issues:
Reportedly 100,000 children in New York will starve if they can't go to school and get
fed. Is this going to be a lot different elsewhere?
What about the salaries, vs. the debts, for the hourly workers that won't be able to
work in a lockdown situation? A large percentage of Americans are extremely financially
precarious.
Then there's the US health care system. Even disregarding the secondary economic/social
effects noted above - how will $500-$3000 nCOV testing impact people? Much less the cost of
hospitalizations?
And just for extra fun: The number of hospital beds in the US declined 5% from 2005 to
2017: source
The number of hospital beds is rising in prosperous zip codes and falling everywhere else.
The amount of hospital beds fell by five percent nationally between 2006 and 2017. Over the
same time period, the number of beds increased by 10 percent in prosperous zip codes, which
were the only group to see an increase. Prosperous zip codes tend to be growing quickly:
The number of residents of prosperous zip codes increased by an estimated 20 percent over
the study period, faster than the population of any other quintile. Combined with their
initially low bed-counts, the rise in hospital beds in prosperous communities may reflect a
rebalancing in the landscape of beds towards the locations where more and more Americans
live.
So while richer areas got more hospital beds, the number don't reflect the
population increase. The other areas are just SOL.
The explosion of hate and blame and fear flying around online with regard to this pandemic is
more than alarming and ultimately useless and damaging. In a way it scares me more than the
flu itself at the moment because of the implications of how it will hinder our ability to
cooperate and deal with this.
The panic has set in, to some extent, but people are adjusting. There is a hyper focus on
the federal government and opportunistic political attacks with the goal of ruining the
current administration in the lead up to 2020 elections (an administration already paranoid
from 3+ years of being targeted to an extent I've never seen in my life). That much is really
obvious if you can look at things rationally, even if, like me, you're opposed to this
administration ideologically, politically and in almost every other way. I think that's
beyond reckless and extremely dangerous at a time like this, but my opinion won't change much
in a political environment that has been so carefully manipulated to a level of toxicity that
is maybe unprecedented. Maybe people will get their priorities straight when/if things get
really rough. Remains to be seen.
What the media and others aren't paying attention to at all to local and state authorities
who have been mobilizing. We don't rely on the federal government for everything. We have
extensive town, city, county and state infrastructures that handle most things in daily life.
The states themselves vary but every one has an extensive infrastructure.
The testing issue is clearly a major league failure. How important is it compared to
mobilizing? It's important because information is important for supply networks and decision
making. But is it more important in the short term than getting the population to prepare at
home, isolate to varying extents, to be informed about symptoms etc and be able to ride this
out as well as possible until the bigger, higher level infrastructure catches up?
And that is happening here in the US, at least in my state of NJ (bumped up
against/integrated with 2 of the biggest cities in the country). There is massive
mobilization. Colleges going into spring break right now and switching to online instruction
after spring break, large events canceled, people working from home when possible, state
government hotlines and online reporting in place, and tons of other things. This is
anecdotal but my son told me today that friends who work in electronics stores, restaurants
will be paid for furloughs, which surprised me. He's a student with a part time restaurant
job and no shut down or word of furlough pay as yet.
At a recent small biz related gathering - people already adopted modified non-handshakes
on their own. Maybe seems a little silly but shows how quickly people adapt in real world
regardless of the hate and panic flying around in MSM and social media. That doesn't get us
more hospital beds and respirators but it's important at the prevention end of things. As for
possible need for rapid expansion of medical facilities, I guess we'll find out soon if the
trillions we spend on military/national guard can benefit people at home if we hit that
crisis point. Supposedly, this type of logistics is one of their strengths.
" the percentage of patients admitted to intensive care units reported daily in Italy,
from March 1, up until March 11, was consistently between 9% and 11% of patients who were
actively infected."
"If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients.
Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be
needed by mid-April, 2020."
"Considering that the number of available beds in intensive care units in Italy is close
to 5200, and assuming that half of these beds can be used for patients with COVID-19, the
system will be at maximum capacity, according to this prediction, by March 14, 2020."
" we can assume that we will need approximately 4000 beds in intensive care units during
the worst period of infection, which is expected to occur in about 4 weeks from March 11.
This is challenging for Italy, as there are now just over 5200 intensive care beds in
total. "
"We predict that if the exponential trend continues for the next few days, more than
2500 hospital beds for patients in intensive care units will be needed in only 1 week to
treat ARDS caused by SARS-CoV-2-pneumonia in Italy."
And age mortality profile
"Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were
aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged
50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio
is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs
79·9 years for men)."
Something a little more positive from the China perspective
We are increasing our understanding of this disease. It is clearly very infectious, at
least in some circumstances. As we have explained this means that the case severity is likely
to be lower than the crude fatality rates in many media reports. We have explained the
dilemma of mortality early in epidemics here. The academic consensus for mortality is
currently around 0.3-1% (WHO). It could be higher but it could be lower if blood testing
eventually confirms more widespread, mild disease. The hospital mortality over the age of 80
years is 15%. Another way of looking at this data is that of every 100 people over the age of
80 who contract COVID-19 and become ill enough to go to hospital. 85% make a full
recovery.
The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these
patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.
Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were
aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were
aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female
ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs
79·9 years for men).
Dr. Brian Monahan, attending physician of Congress, told a closed-door meeting of Senate
staffers this week that 70 million to 150 million Americans -- a third of the nation -- could
contract the coronavirus. Dr. Anthony Fauci testified that the mortality rate for COVID-19 will
likely run near 1 percent.
Translation: between 750,000 and 1.1 million Americans may die of this disease before it
runs its course. The latter figure is equal to all the U.S. dead in World War II and on both
sides in the Civil War.
Chancellor Angela Merkel warns that 70 percent of Germany's population -- 58 million people
-- could contract the coronavirus. If she is right, and Fauci's mortality rate holds for her
country, that could mean more than half a million dead Germans.
Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis called Merkel's remark "unhelpful" and said it could cause
panic. But Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch seemed to support Merkel, saying between 40
percent and 70 percent of the world's population could become infected.
Again, if Fauci's 1 percent mortality rate and Lipsitch's estimate prove on target, between
3 billion and 5 billion people on earth will be infected, and 30 million to 50 million will
die, a death toll greater than that of the Spanish Flu of 1918.
There is, however, some contradictory news.
China, with 81,000 cases, has noted a deceleration in new cases and South Korea appears to
be gradually containing the spread of the virus.
Yet Italy, with its large elderly population, may be a harbinger of what is to come in the
West. As of Thursday, Italy had reported 12,000 cases and 827 deaths, a mortality rate of
nearly 7 percent. This suggests that the unreported and undetected infections in Italy are far
more numerous.
In the U.S., the death toll at this writing is 40, a tiny fraction of the annual toll of the
tens of thousands who die of the flu.
But the problem is this: COVID-19 has not nearly run its course in the United States, while
the reaction in society and the economy approaches what we might expect from a boiling national
disaster.
The stock market has plunged further and faster than it did in the Great Crash of 1929.
Trillions of dollars in wealth have vanished. If Senator Bernie Sanders does not like
"millionaires and billionaires," he should be pleased. There are fewer of them today than there
were when he won the New Hampshire primary.
@Carlton
Meyer I've been following a few doctors on Youtube, for about a month now (dispassionate,
evidence-based docs), and their opinions vary on how serious this is.
What I don't is, if this is as contagious as they say (and it does seem to be) and as
life-threatening as they say, then given that there are several cases in NYC, why are we not
already seeing thousands of deaths there- a city where millions are crammed together daily,
many without good hygiene, many who have been for several weeks now, using public
transportation. I don't get it. It would seem the effects of any virus that were as bad as
they're saying, would already be reaching peak zombie level conditions in places like NYC,
Chicago, Boston, SF and DC.
Like the man on viriculture.com used
to say, healthy life =/= long life. We work towards extending one's lifespan, yet we don't
extend their "health span". We just extend the period when one is already falling apart. The
older you are, the more meds you need, the more healthcare you need etc etc.
So the longer the lifespan the bigger the load on healthcare and pension funds.
The main problem is, that our economic and cultural systems are at this point, 90%
biologically incompatible with us. A good chunk of our lives we study (especially so when you
study something like medicine, i believe at this point it's for genuine masochists). By the
time you get to a nice position in your career you're probably going to be older than 35. For
good birth rates etc that's unnaceptable.
So, the solution is to extend the "health-span". Preferably, you need to slow aging down at
least by 10, maybe even 15 years, while keeping the overall lifespan the same. The current way
is simply unsustainable
@Kratoklastes ...Like all the
other viruses that have floated around over the years be this one is being hyped up.
The hype works precisely because of your remark #3 but it will die a natural death after
everyone makes their money and the public gets bored.
I mean if just 1B people get a shot costing $50 that is a whole lot of Yuan. Store owners
also appear to be sneaking that extra markup on soaps and disinfectants and toilet paper. Y2K
also comes to mind and I am sure that Aids /HIV continues to kill more people annually than
this virus ever will. In the meantime I caution all nose pickers to leave those buggers alone
and not report any unusually large specimens. It will only skew the statistics and increase
the panic.
60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead
due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold
or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got
there first.
You request that opinions should be limited to fact based
but in the next sentence you state "The truth is that NONE OF US really knows for a fact what
this virus can do, we are all guessing."
well .whether fact based or speculative here are two alternate views>
"My own view on the Coronavirus situation, is that I trust the Chinese Government to be
doing all it can possibly do, to contain the epidemic.
There are a lot of people there, living in close proximity
In that context, Steve Bannon is just using inflammatory language throughout, to diss the
CCP
I can well understand why the CCP will not allow any US personel anywhere near the
patients, nor allow them to have access to any of the medical data.
If Bannon is implying that the CCP has something to hide, then the CCP also has its own
suspicions as to how this virus suddenly appeared
A lot of stuff has in the past come out of Livermore Labs and in the UK from Porton Down,
which "should not" be released I know of southern coastal cities in the UK being sprayed with
viruses from the air in the 1950s – a deliberate programme supported by the UK
government
The CCP will also be fully aware of British activities within Syria and then there is the
Skripal incident, a home-grown Boris the Buffoon manufactured crisis
If one looks at UK and US official government behaviour towards Hong Kong, then one can
easily surmise that there are attempts to find other means to destabilise China
Just saying "
Another view >
"There was an interesting item on Facebook a few days back, claiming to be written by a
Chinese military official, a staunch supporter of the communist party and the government, but
a man 'with a conscience.'
He claimed the virus was manufactured with a view to causing reduction of higher brain
functions (i.e. lowering the IQ) and inducing docility into those who are protesting in Hong
Kong.
It was first tested, according to his narrative, more discreetly on rounded-up Uighurs in
the prison camps, well away from anywhere likely to be observed, and everyone who was
exposed, died. There was a massive clean-up and cover-up operation
Realising it needed more work if it was to be deployed in HK, they did some further
modifications and had intended to do a new test in Hubei, but this was pre-empted by a
shoot-out near the meat market that has been mooted as the source of the outbreak. Someone,
I'm not sure now who he reckoned it was, attempted to 'kidnap the bio weapon in order to grab
the technology it represented, but the consignment was hit by a bullet and the virus escaped.
Those in charge ensured there were no survivors as witnesses in that area.
He further claimed that the mortality rate is actually 100% but that it has been put about
that it is only 2% – this underplaying being with the complicity of the USA, Russia and
the UK and presumably the EU, in order to forestall mass panic. He claimed only those wearing
hazmat suits stand any chance, and that the pandemic will claim the lives of all but top
officials who have recourse to protective measures. He said that the actual symptoms in the
final stages are up to five days of agonising pain with internal organs haemorrhaging in a
similar way to Ebola.
Of course, the article was anonymously written, as he said his life and that of his family
would be forfeit if he were to be identified. Which makes it a narrative that is easy to fake
but impossible to completely refute. "
Like the Saker, I do not think the corona virus outbreak was deliberate. The first thing that
people crafty enough to unleash this sort of thing would think of is blowback.
Perhaps the depopulationists–but this is a really ineffective way of going about
it.
I do think, however, that it arose in a "laboratory" of tens of millions of human subjects
all undergoing an enormous experiment. Please humor me a moment.
If there were a deliberate element in all of this, it would be the hype and rush be the
first to implement an untested technology about which dire warnings were already being
sounded.
Virologists and epidemiologists have yet to discount that the coronavirus was a bio attack.
This does NOT mean that it was an attack, merely that the possibility of a bio attack cannot
be discounted. While there remains a lot of circumstantial and anecdotal "evidence" that this
was an economic attack perpetrated by America against China, this does NOT prove conclusively
that such an attack took place, nor does it prove that such an attack did not take place.
There is an abstract submitted to ChinaXIV (a research website) that, although not yet peer
reviewed, suggests that the virus dd NOT originate at the Wuhan Seafood Market and that it
was introduced:
Any reference as to who introduced the coronavirus to the market is pure speculation at
this juncture, although the circumstantial and anecdotal evidence could be construed as
overwhelming against the US considering the timing, geographic location and proximity to the
Wuhan Seafood Market of the US soldiers present for the International Military Games.
I am not a virologist or epidemiologist (I am an engineer), however it is not completely
out of the realms of possibility for a virus to make the transition from animal to human
host; and the conditions in which animals are kept in Wuhan and surrounding areas is
certainly not of the same standard as the West – both from the perspective of hygiene
and humanitarian considerations. Another abstract that does looks into the origins of the
virus states:
"The genomic features described here may in part explain the infectiousness and
transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although genomic evidence does not support the
idea that SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory construct, it is currently impossible to prove or
disprove the other theories of its origin described here, and it is unclear whether future
data will help resolve this issue. Identifying the immediate non-human animal source and
obtaining virus sequences from it would be the most definitive way of revealing virus
origins."
Much mention has been made of the corona-virus in question (COVID-19) binding to the ACE-2
receptors found in the lungs and heart – most particularly in those of Asian heritage.
It would not be outside the realms of science for this to be a logical target for the virus,
given its geographic location, but the hypothesis of it being engineered to target a specific
racial genotype is also not outside the realms of possibility.
"Our findings indicated that no direct evidence was identified genetically supporting
the existence of coronavirus S-protein binding-resistant ACE2 mutants in different
populations (Fig. 1a). The data of variant distribution and AFs may contribute to the
further investigations of ACE2, including its roles in acute lung injury and lung
function12. The East Asian populations have much higher AFs in the eQTL variants associated
with higher ACE2 expression in tissues (Fig. 1c), which may suggest different
susceptibility or response to 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 from different populations under the
similar conditions."
I agree with Andrei's analysis that a bio-weapon is both unwieldy and difficult to control
when used in a purely military application, but when used as an economic weapon, the
possibility is mentioned in the odious The Project for a New American Century's (PNAC) report
titled "Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century."
"advanced forms of biological warfare that can 'target' specific genotypes may transform
biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool."
This does not prove that the tragedy unfolding out of Wuhan was a bio-weapon, but
certainly demonstrates the possibility of intent. At this juncture, neither side of the
argument can provide any proof, so the the hypothesis remains pure speculation. The Chinese
government is not directly accusing the US of a bio attack, but it is extremely worrying that
both the Russian and Chinese governments remain highly suspicious.
"CORONAVIRUSES HAVE ALWAYS INFECTED HUMANS, PANIC IS UNWARRANTED"
Posted by agencycyta | Mar 9, 2020 | Science , Featured , Health | 0 |
"Coronaviruses have always infected humans, panic is unwarranted"
According to an Argentine virologist in France, Pablo Goldschmidt, there is no evidence to
indicate that the fatality or morbidity of COVID-19 is superior to that caused by influenza
viruses or the common cold.
(CyTA-Leloir Foundation Agency) -. For the virologist and infectious disease specialist
Pablo Goldschmidt, the panic surrounding the strain of coronavirus identified in China
(COVID-19) is as unwarranted as the one created in 2003 with severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS). ) or in 2009 with the influenza A (H1N1) virus.
"The ill-founded opinions expressed by international experts, replicated by the media and
social networks repeat the unnecessary panic that we have previously experienced. The
coronavirus identified in China in 2019 causes neither more nor less than a strong cold or
flu, with no difference until today with the cold or flu as we know it, "says Professor
Goldschmidt, also a biochemist, pharmacist and psychologist graduated from the UBA, volunteer
for the World Health Organization (WHO), former praticien hospitalier of the public hospitals
in Paris and author of the book "People and microbes, invisible beings with whom we live and
make us sick" (2019).
The Argentine specialist lives more than four decades in Europe. At the Faculty of
Medicine of the hospital center de la Pitié-Salpetrière in Paris, he obtained
diplomas in pharmacokinetics, clinical pharmacology, neuro-psychopharmacology and
pharmacology of antimicrobials. At the Université Pierre et Marie Curie Paris VI he
received a doctorate in molecular pharmacology. The theoretical and practical training of the
Paris Curie and Pasteur Institutes also concluded with degrees in fundamental virology and
molecular biology. As a volunteer at the WHO, he integrates humanitarian missions in Guinea
Conakry, Bissau, Pakistan, Ukraine, Cameroon, Mali and the Chad border with Nigeria. And it
aspires to obtain from the Argentine State a mandate to exercise the right to speak before
the international organization.
In dialogue with the CyTA-Leloir Agency, Goldschmidt expresses its tension in the face of
the global terror generated by the quality of information that is disseminated about the new
coronavirus and considers it necessary that the data that is propagated be placed in the
geographical and social context. "You can't create hysteria on the entire planet," he
says.
-Which viruses are considered responsible for respiratory diseases?
Viral respiratory conditions are numerous and are caused by several viral families and
species, among which the respiratory syncytial virus (especially in infants), influenza
(influenza), human metapneumoviruses, adenoviruses, rhinoviruses, and several coronaviruses,
already described years ago. It is striking that earlier this year global health alerts have
been triggered as a result of infections by a coronavirus detected in China, COVID-19,
knowing that each year there are 3 million newborns who die in the world of pneumonia and
50,000 adults in the United States for the same cause, without alarms being issued.
– The fact that it is transmitted by saliva or by cough increased the fear of the
population?
Many microorganisms are transmitted by this route in humans. The cold, transmitted by
saliva and cough, is caused by more than 150 rhinoviruses. Ten million people were infected
by saliva and cough with the tuberculosis agent in 2018, of which 1 million were children and
205 thousand died. The same happened with bacterial meningitis, transmitted by saliva, which
affected more than a million people in a year. Measles is also transmitted by saliva, hence
the urgency to protect the population with vaccines.
-You. Do you consider the international alerts launched due to the coronavirus to be
exaggerated?
Our planet is the victim of a new sociological phenomenon, scientific-media harassment,
triggered by experts only on the basis of laboratory molecular diagnostic analysis results.
Communiqués issued from China and Geneva were replicated, without being confronted
from a critical point of view and, above all, without stressing that coronaviruses have
always infected humans and always caused diarrhea and what people call a banal cold or common
cold. Absurd forecasts were extrapolated, as in 2009 with the H1N1 influenza virus.
And the risk of complications?
A cold can present as a benign, self-limiting disease; but it is known that all
respiratory diseases, however banal they may be considered, can severely affect the frailized
people, people with cardiocirculatory problems over 65 years, people with metabolic
disorders, immunosuppressed, transplanted and, above all , to poorly fed people without
shelter, and to those who do not have access to competent health teams that provide them with
effective medicines. This situation, clearly revealed for so many other diseases, is repeated
in all infections and COVID-19 is no exception.
Why does each individual become infected and react differently to viral infections?
The first step for a virus to infect a person depends on the virus's ability to recognize
"locks" or proteins on the surface of cells in certain organs, not all. Once it attaches to
its lock, it can penetrate the cell and put all the cellular machinery of the infected
subject at its service to replicate itself. It has been determined that there are individuals
with many "locks", others with few and others with easier "locks" to open, which is
determined by the genes. On the other hand, there is a defensive apparatus of proteins
encoded in DNA that is known by the name of "reactoma". In short, all humans are unique
living beings against microbial aggression and against the malignant transformations of our
tissues. Therefore, in certain individuals,
Is the coronavirus detected in China a new agent?
Those who launched the international alerts did not take into account data that shows
whether this virus or other similar viruses circulated in previous years. Or if people who
were already exposed to other coronavirus variants have partial or total protection against
the 2019 strain.
-Why do you not accept the extrapolation from one country to the other of the forecasts
issued by international agencies?
First, it is appropriate to compare the mortality and morbidity data with the number of
positive cases (those confirmed by the laboratory in relation to the number of severe cases
or the number of deceased persons). The first thing that emerges from the data, beyond the
biological criteria referring to the individual capacity to get sick and defend against viral
aggression, are doubts regarding the figures, if it is not considered that the affected
people did or did not have access to competent and equipped health, and if they received
timely treatments with adequate and bioequivalent drugs.
– Would these factors contribute to explain the differences in mortality and
morbidity between countries?
If there is no biological justification for individual predisposition, the difference
could be due to the quality of the medical institutions, the reasons that caused the time to
pass before the affected people go to health centers, or the quality of the training of
medical centers and the availability of resources to treat acute respiratory diseases. We
must impose moderation and use concrete data. There is no evidence to show that the 2019
coronavirus is more lethal than respiratory adenoviruses, influenza viruses, coronaviruses
from previous years, or rhinoviruses responsible for the common cold.
I'd rather take my chances with the virus than consume an Israeli vaccine
Don't blame you at all, but you don't have to make that choice!
A Canadian company says that it has produced a COVID-19 vaccine just 20 days after
receiving the coronavirus's genetic sequence, using a unique technology that they soon hope
to submit for FDA approval.
Medicago CEO Bruce Clark said his company could produce as many as 10 million doses a
month. If regulatory hurdles can be cleared, he said in a Thursday interview, the vaccine
could start to become available in November 2021.
An Israeli research lab has also claimed to have created a vaccine. But Clark says his
company's technique, which has already been proven effective in producing vaccines for
seasonal flu, is more reliable and easier to scale.
"There are a couple of others who are claiming that they have -- well, we will call them
vaccine[s]" for COVID-19, he said. "But they're different technologies. Some are RNA- or
DNA-based vaccines that have not yet been proven in any indication yet, let alone this one.
Hopefully, they'll be successful."
In 2010, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, put together a $100
million program dubbed Blue Angel to look into new forms of vaccine discovery and
production. A big chunk of that money went to Medicago to build a facility in North
Carolina, where they showed that they could find a vaccine in just 20 days, then rapidly
scale up production.
But it won't be ready for actual people for 18 months.
Healthcare Hot Topics This is coming from
MEDPAGE TODAY , "Track the U.S. COVID-19 Outbreak in Real Time," Comments Section (3
comments), March 11, 2020 with regard to COVID-19
"The mechanism of seasonal effect for seasonal respiratory virus spread is believed to be
humidity, not temperature. In New York state which has 220 cases, fomites lose moisture where
indoor humidity is low, allowing the lighter particles to stay longer in the aerosol. In
Florida and Arizona, with 38 cases, fomites gain moisture and weight from the humid air and
fall to the floor faster. Northern Italy, where people wear winter coats in the media reports
has dry, heated indoor air, while Southern Italy has humid indoor air.
Humidifying indoor air in schools, stores, churches, etc. may reduce seasonal influenza,
respiratory syncytial virus, coronoviruses which produce the common cold, rhinoviruses and
Covid-19, Airports, airliners, airport shuttles should be the highest priority. The goal should
be humidifying to the level seen in summer without transmitting Legionella."
"The Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Hong Kong have warmer, more humid air and
much less Covid-19. Southern Italy has warmer, more humid indoor air than Northern Italy where
indoor air is dry. The photographs in the media from places with the highest rate of Covid-19
spread show people wearing winter jackets."
"In warm humid climates, fomites absorb water from indoor air and sink to the floor. There
is a fine layer of dust everywhere indoors and viral particles attach to charged dust
particles.
The mechanism for seasonal respiratory virus transmission is: fomite size in dry heated
indoor air promotes viral spread. Larger fomites in humid air fall to the floor and react with
charged dust particles."
fomite definition: objects or materials which are likely to carry infection, such as
clothes, utensils, and furniture.
microbiology definition: A fomes (pronounced /ˈfoʊmiːz/) or fomite
(/ˈfoʊmaɪt/) is any inanimate object that, when contaminated with or exposed to
infectious agents (such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or fungi), can transfer disease to a
new host.
This would include counter tops, etc.
likbez , March 12, 2020 4:10 pm
I think incompetent politicians who want to be seen to be acting but do not implement the
necessary for containing the epidemics steps or take them too late are more important danger
in this coronavirus outbreak then the disease itself.
Humidity about 50% is a double edge sword: it greatly stimulates growth of various
bacteria and fungus. And Legionnaires disease is more dangerous type of virus pneumonia than
COVID-19.
Legionnaires' disease is the cause of an estimated 2–9% of pneumonia cases that
are acquired outside of a hospital.[1] An estimated 8,000–18,000 cases a year in the
United States require hospitalization
Respiratory-care devices such as humidifiers and nebulizers used with contaminated tap
water may contain Legionella species, so using sterile water is very important.[29]
It is also not clear if 50% humidity is enough to adversely affect the coronavirus
virus.
•Excess moisture promotes the growth and spread of mold, mildew, fungi, bacteria,
and viruses. These contaminants diminish indoor air quality, causing illness, and can also
cause damage to your home.
•When indoor humidity levels are too high, asthma and allergy sufferers may
experience worse or more frequent symptoms.
•High humidity indoors causes the home to feel muggy. You may notice visible
condensation on windows and walls.
At 80% or higher humility your sheets feel wet. This for example is the case in Dominican
republic.
In general, this temperature guide will show you where to keep your indoor relative
humidity levels to ensure comfort.
•Outdoor temperature over 50˚F, indoor humidity levels shouldn't exceed
50%
•Outdoor temperature over 20˚F, indoor humidity levels shouldn't exceed
40%
Over 50% humility can probably be maintained for prolong time only along with ultraviolet
lamp disinfection of the room and daily change of bed sheets and weekly washing of
pillows.
It is also not clear if the coronavirus can survive after drying of aerosol saliva
particles that carry them. Probably not.
At the same time places with a very high humidity such as Hong Kong and Taiwan were less
affected by the coronavirus.
The NYT now has a section of free coronavirus coverage, including our live briefing, maps of
confirmed cases and advice on how to prepare for the outbreak
Quote: "If you begin to have a high fever, shortness of breath or any other more serious
symptom, the best thing to do is to call your doctor to let them know and inquire about next
steps. (Testing for coronavirus is inconsistent right now -- there are not enough testing kits,
and it's dangerous for people with coronavirus to go into a doctor's office and risk infecting
others. So please follow your doctor's instructions.) Check the C.D.C. website and
your local health department for advice about how and where to be tested"
TORONTO -- More leisure-time physical activity -- walking, gardening, swimming, or dancing,
for example -- was associated with larger brain volume in older adults, a cross-sectional study
showed.
TORONTO -- More leisure-time physical activity -- walking, gardening, swimming, or dancing,
for example -- was associated with larger brain volume in older adults, a cross-sectional study
showed.
Adults with an average age of 75 who had the most physical activity had a total brain volume
that was 1.4% larger than those with the least activity, reported Yian Gu, PhD, of Columbia
University in New York City, and co-authors, in an early-release abstract from the American Academy of Neurology
annual meeting , which will be held here in April.
The effect was equal to about 4 years of brain aging, Gu noted.
"These results are exciting, as they suggest that people may potentially prevent brain
shrinking and the effects of aging on the brain simply by becoming more active," she said in a
statement.
Previous research has linked physical activity with cognition in older adults. A systematic
review in 2018 showed that exercising for 52 hours over 6 months was associated with
improvements in processing speed and executive
function . Last year, a longitudinal study showed that a higher level of daily physical
activity was tied to slower amyloid-beta related cognitive
decline in clinically normal older adults.
In their analysis, Gu and colleagues studied leisure-time physical activity and MRI measures
of 1,557 older adults in the Washington/Hamilton Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project (
WHICAP ) study, a
community-based, multi-ethnic cohort of older adults.
No participants had dementia, but 296 people had mild cognitive impairment and 28% carried
the APOE E4 allele. Participants had a mean 11.4 years of education and body mass index
of 28.4. In total, 64% were women; 26% were non-Hispanic white, 34% were African American, and
38% were Hispanic.
Sorry to say but... social distancing is one thing but how do you get some food? are you
ready to wash up everything you bought at supermarket and change your clothes each time you
go out and your bedsheets every morning?
Korean model is that grocery are ordered (online or phone?) and delivered to the door,
increasingly, people pick the grocery without physical contact with delivery people. Korean
cities are quite dense from what I understand. Initially, shoppers abandoned big
supermarket for neighborhood stores, neighborhood stores usually belong to big chains, like
in Germany, so there are website for ordering groceries, but they are delivered over short
distances.
Because having food delivered was already popular, a massive increase could be easy to
handle. E.g. with more orders to the same address (high rise living is the norm), it takes
less time for an individual delivery.
I was thinking that "no contact shopping" in USA could be more practical with people
arriving at their big supermarket (or local store in a rural area) and picking up pre-paid
boxes (could be just open boxes that could be left empty).
interview with Michael Osterholm, internationally recognized expert in infectious disease
epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health,
the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished
Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health,
a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering,
and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.
... 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were
included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients
had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by
diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable
regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age
...Cardiac complications, including new or worsening heart failure, new or worsening
arrhythmia, or myocardial infarction are common in patients with pneumonia. Cardiac arrest
occurs in about 3% of inpatients with pneumonia.21
Risk factors of cardiac events after pneumonia include older age, pre-existing
cardiovascular diseases, and greater severity of pneumonia at presentation.22
Coronary heart disease has also been found to be associated with acute cardiac events and
poor outcomes in influenza and other respiratory viral infections
... For survivors, the median duration of viral shedding was 20 days (IQR
17·0–24·0) from illness onset, but the virus was continuously detectable
until death in non-survivors ( table
2 ; figure
1 ).
I just got a call yesterday from close friends who must still think this is a joke and
they wanted me to come out to a restaurant with them in about a weeks time. Six weeks ago, I
would have gone.
I just told them the truth, thanking them very much for being so thoughtful,
and also suggesting that this was more serious than people might realize, but I didn't go
into too much detail as I've learned it's counter productive. I did, however, point out that
due to our for profit health care system, we will get a much greater and faster spread of
covid-19 due to prohibitive costs of any health care visit.
Couldn't resist that one; talk about res ipsa loquitur.
For a couple of weeks now, I have been quite up front with close friends, slightly less so
with others, but refuse to go out unless I have to and can somewhat control how many people
will be around (as in going to the super market very early am during the week).
I have no illusion this behavior will guarantee anything, but que faire?
Registered nurses are outraged to learn that the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on
Tuesday further weakened its guidance on measures to contain COVID-19. These changes include,
among other things, rolling back personal protective equipment (PPE) standards from N-95
respirators to allow simple surgical masks; not requiring suspected or confirmed COVID-19
patients to be placed in negative pressure isolation rooms at all times; and weakening
protections for health care workers collecting diagnostic respiratory specimens. These are
moves that National Nurses United nurses say will gravely endanger nurses, health care workers,
patients, and our communities
"If nurses and health care workers aren't protected, that means patients and the public are
not protected," said Bonnie Castillo, RN and CNA/NNOC and NNU executive director. "This is a
major public health crisis of unknown proportions. Now is not the time to be weakening our
standards and protections, or cutting corners. Now is the time we should be stepping up our
efforts."..
In addition to lobbying almost every federal health agency, the presidential administration,
and members of Congress, and California health agencies to step up protections, NNU recently
surveyed RNs nationwide, finding that the vast majority of the nation's health care facilities
are unprepared for COVID-19, with only 29 percent of nurses reporting that their hospitals have
a plan in place to isolate a coronavirus patient, and only 30 percent saying their employer has
enough personal protective equipment if there is a rapid surge in patients with possible
COVID-19 infections.
Many hospitals and healthcare facilities have failed to provide adequate personal protective
equipment to nurses working with COVID-19 patients. Some facilities are telling nurses to
continue to work while asymptomatic, even though they've been exposed to the virus and might be
contagious. Testing at hospitals has been sporadic.
I found this very interesting personal report on flutrackers:
Something else to share, here (reproduced exactly as I received it):
3/8/2020
Notes from the front lines:
I attended the Infectious Disease Association of California (IDAC) Northern California
Winter Symposium on Saturday 3/7. In attendance were physicians from Santa Clara, San
Francisco and Orange Counties who had all seen and cared for COVID-19 patients, both
returning travelers and community-acquired cases. Also present was the Chief of ID for
Providence hospitals, who has 2 affected Seattle hospitals under his jurisdiction. Erin
Epson, CDPH director of Hospital Acquired Infections, was also there to give updates on how
CDPH and CDC are handling exposed health care workers, among other things. Below are some
of the key take-aways from their experiences.
1. The most common presentation was one week prodrome of myaglias, malaise, cough, low
grade fevers gradually leading to more severe trouble breathing in the second week of
illness. It is an average of 8 days to development of dyspnea and average 9 days to onset
of pneumonia/pneumonitis. It is not like Influenza, which has a classically sudden onset.
Fever was not very prominent in several cases. The most consistently present lab finding
was lymphopenia (with either leukocytosis or leukopenia). The most consistent radiographic
finding was bilateral interstitial/ground glass infiltrates. Aside from that, the other
markers (CRP, PCT) were not as consistent.
2. Co-infection rate with other respiratory viruses like Influenza or RSV is 24 hours
apart.
... ... ...
10. All suggested ramping up alternatives to face-to-face visits, tetemedicine, "car
visits", telephone consultation hotlines.
11. Sutter and other larger hospital systems are using a variety of alternative
respiratory triage at the Emergency Departments.
12. Health Departments (CDPH and OCHD) state the Airborne Infection Isolation Room
(AIIR) is the least important of all the suggested measures to reduce exposure. Contact and
droplet isolation in a regular room is likely to be just as effective. One heavily affected
hospital in San Jose area is placing all "undifferentiated pneumonia" patients not meeting
criteria for COVID testing in contact+droplet isolation for 2-3 days while seeing how they
respond to empiric treatment and awaiting additional results.
Feel free to share. All PUIs in Monterey Country so far have been negative.
Consequences of widespread denialism. At home, the virologist was not taken seriously until
last Monday. I advised my wife last week not to assist to some meeting in closed doors, my son
not to go to a concert, a friend of mine not to travel to Switzerland. They finally conceded I
was right this week. The runners chat was complaining about cancellation of events until
yesterday and I have received in chats lots of hyperventilating noises. Not helpful. We are now
in Madrid replicating quite exactly events occurring in Italy 7-10 days before. Expect the same
elsewhere.
I’m thinking of making up some lame excuse to not go skiing next week, a phantom
injury or some other malady of my imagination.
Why not just admit to my friends that i’m afraid of mixing with a large group of
people, especially so @ lunch, where we are in close proximity to a lot of other folks all
milling around?
We are still in heavy denial-myself included, in that I feel my friends will think less of
me if I was to give them the real reason, in that I don’t want to die, just yet.
An e-mail to my family regarding how bad the crisis is and will be here soon, was similar to
my frantic e-mails & calls in the summer of 2008 regarding how shaky things are financially
on Wall*Street, please be ready! They did nothing.
When I related that ‘Dr Drew’ (a sister sent me a video of his-after I sent out
the Bergamo doctor’s account) who claimed Covid-19 was a press engineered fantasy, was
just an addiction specialist and judging from where he hangs his hat (Breitbart, Washington
Examiner, erc) everything he does is politically motivated hard right, one of my sisters asked
me not to politicize the matter.
We took our daughter from school even before they closed them, because we suspected
(rightly, as it turned out), that some parents coming from midterm sky trips to Italy will
ignore the quarantine.
A friend of mine sent half of his staff WFH, and some of his business contacts see him as
mad now.
That said, majority of people here support the drastic reaction, and would be happy to
support even more dramatic ones. For example, a CEO of a major movie theater chain got quite a
bit of kudos today when he said that while they could keep smaller theatres open, he
doesn’t see how it’s better to keep 50 people bunched together than 100, so they
close it all until further notice.
You might have fears today: What if I overreact? Will people laugh at me? Will they be
angry at me? Will I look stupid? Won’t it be better to wait for others to take steps
first? Will I hurt the economy too much?
But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days
of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t
criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.
Your browser indicates if
you've visited this link https://vuuzletvph.com
/favilavir-first-covid-19-drug-approved/ The government of Taizhou in Zhejiang province
declared Sunday that Favilavir, formerly known as Fapilavir, an antiviral that has shown
efficacy in the treatment of the novel coronavirus (), has been approved to be sold in the
market.It is the first antiviral drug approved by the National Medical Products Administration
for marketing since the outbreak happened.
Can the virus freeze to death at low temperatures? Will it disappear as the temperature
rises? With the outbreak of a new coronavirus in Wuhan and across China, there have been more
and more recent statements about the virus and temperature.
These judgments lead to different conclusions no matter true or false, but they are widely
circulating.
<img alt="Does the sun kill the new coronavirus? Expert
explains-cnTechPost" src="https://img.cntechpost.com/images/2020/01/28/071.jpg" />
How resistant is the new coronavirus to temperature? Is it suitable for outdoor activities
after fine weather? Ma Ke, deputy chief physician of the Department of Infectious Diseases of
Tongji Hospital, answers these questions.
1. Is the new coronavirus more afraid of heat or cold?
Coronavirus is more sensitive to heat.
The virus is moderately stable in a suitable maintenance solution at 4 °C and can be
stored for several years at -60 ° C.
However, as the temperature increases, the virus's resistance decreases, but it must reach a
certain temperature for a certain time to inactivate the virus.
2. Does the ambient temperature affect the infectivity of the virus? Is there a
difference in transmission in different regions (such as Northeast and Hainan)? Will the
infectivity of the virus decrease as the temperature rises?
It can survive in different body fluids and even the surface of the object at room
temperature for 2-10 days. Temperature mainly affects the survival time of the virus and does
not affect its infectious capacity.
Because coronaviruses can be transmitted through respiratory aerosols, inactivating the
virus in various ways and adopting multifaceted protective measures can minimize the
possibility of infection.
3. How much and how long does the high temperature have a killing effect on the virus?
High-temperature environment disinfection? Does turning on air conditioning and heating
work?
The virus is sensitive to heat and can effectively inactivate the virus when it reaches a
temperature of 56 ° C for 30 minutes. However, it is impossible to achieve the effect of
inactivating the virus by raising the ambient temperature by heating with an air conditioner,
and the effect of the virus cannot be achieved by heating the temperature.
4. In addition to fear of heat, what is the virus afraid of? (Disinfectant, ethanol,
chlorine-containing disinfectant, etc., correct use)
In addition to killing the virus at high temperatures, lipid solvents such as ether, 75%
ethanol, chlorine-containing disinfectants, peracetic acid, and chloroform can effectively
inactivate the virus.
Air disinfection method:
1. Some people open the window twice a day for 30 minutes each time.
2. When there is an ultraviolet lamp, irradiate the ultraviolet lamp once a day in an
unmanned room for more than 1 hour each time.
3. Disinfection method for the surface and ground of environmental objects: use 1000mg / L
chlorine-containing disinfectant or peroxyacetic acid and hydrogen peroxide paper towels to
wipe and disinfect thoroughly, twice a day.
Experts remind:
First, the sun's irradiation temperature cannot reach 56 degrees, and the intensity of
ultraviolet rays in sunlight can not reach the intensity of ultraviolet lamps.
Second, it needs a duration of 56 degrees and 30 minutes, and the ultraviolet lamp is
irradiated for 60 minutes. The conditions must be met at the same time, which is difficult to
achieve in the ordinary outside environment.
Excellent video. Well done. I can't tell you how many updates I've seen on this pandemic
that have increased my paranoia over the situation. This is genuinely the first that
comforted me. Thank you for that
The number of videos that talk about the coronavirus spreads faster than the coronavirus
itself. Better to increase awareness to control it sooner rather than later. RIP to all lives
lost to this fight. ❤️
As a fellow healthcare professional, you have my greatest respect for dedicating your
video to Dr. Li Wenliang... brought tears to my eyes to see that. Keep up the good work.
Older doctor's assessment of the new Coronavirus. His many years of experience and his
opinion of this new "chest flu". They talk about the terrible flu of 1918 when 50 million
died.
We have had just as bad "pandemics" since then but we now have antibiotics for the bacterial
pneumonia and better hospital care. Few people went into hospitals back then.
The first president to be born in a hospital was Jimmy Carter. Many people still die from
world wide infections (called pandemics). HIV and HPV are pandemics also.
The new coronavirus is estimated to spread at a similar rate to the flu. It is important to
take steps to prevent getting sick, like frequent hand-washing and avoiding people who are
sick.
In the U.S., flu activity is still high. According to CDC estimates, the flu may have
infected as many as 49 million people this season, and as many as 52,000 may have died. If you
get sick, it is more likely it is the flu unless you live in an coronavirus outbreak area.
Note: Because this is a constantly changing situation, this data may not represent the
most up-to-date numbers as state health departments and the CDC independently confirm
infections and deaths. We will update this blog when possible.
The 2019 new coronavirus (also known as COVID-19 or 2019-nCoV) is a hot topic in the news. Now
that it has spread to the U.S., you may wonder if you should be concerned. It is a
respiratory virus , meaning it affects the lungs, so what do people with asthma need to
know?
COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. (according to the CDC as of 3/10/2020)
Travel-related (confirmed)
83
Person-to-person spread (confirmed)
36
Being investigated
528
Total cases
647
What Is Coronavirus (COVID-19)?
A coronavirus is a type of virus that often occurs in animals. Sometimes, it can spread to
humans. This is rare.
In December 2019, a new coronavirus started spreading.
Experts think people first caught the virus at a fish and live animal market. Now it is
spreading from person to person.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), coronavirus symptoms can
include:
Fever
Cough
Shortness of breath
The CDC believes symptoms may appear two to 14 days after coming in contact with the
virus.
The virus is spread through coughing and sneezing. The virus will be in droplets that are
coughed or sneezed out into the air. These are heavy droplets and they quickly fall to the
ground/surface below.
People who are within 1 to 2 meters (3 to 6 feet) of someone who is ill with coronavirus may
be within the zone that droplets can reach. If someone who is sick coughs or sneezes on your
face, you may get infected. This is why it is recommended that people who are sick should
cough/sneeze into their elbows or a tissue and throw it away and wash their hands. People who
are sick should also wear a mask to help stop the spread of illness.
The coronavirus may also live on surfaces that people have coughed and sneezed on. If you
touch a surface with the virus on it and then touch your mouth, nose or eyes, you may get
sick.
Who Is at Risk From the Coronavirus?
Most Americans are still at a low risk of getting coronavirus, says the CDC.
At this time, little is known about how the coronavirus affects people with asthma . One
study of 140 cases showed no link to asthma. 1 According to the WHO and the CDC, the
highest risk groups include:
People caring for someone who is ill with coronavirus
People over age 60
People with chronic medical conditions such as:
High blood pressure
Heart disease
Diabetes
Asthma
People with asthma should take precautions when any type of respiratory illness is
spreading in their community.
"... Nothing speaks more loudly of the dumbed down, idiotic, Fakebook groupthink of the age than the current rush to buy toilet roll as a response to the Coronavirus crisis. ..."
No need to worry about the corona virus - it'll all be okay as long as you buy enough toilet
roll...
Nothing speaks more loudly of the dumbed down, idiotic, Fakebook groupthink of the age
than the current rush to buy toilet roll as a response to the Coronavirus crisis.
You've seen it on the tele and (un)social media – supermarket shelves denuded of bog
roll and fat birds beating seven shades of sh*t out of each other over the last bag of ass
wipe.
I mean, what the hell!? Is this how stupid and pathetic we've become? Someone sees a post
on Fakebook that says its a good idea to respond to a potentially fatal virus by buying lots
of bog roll and within 5 minutes there's a massive rush on the stuff – after all, you
gotta buy it, right, COS IT SAYS SO ON FAKEBOOK...
"the US is particularly poorly set up to cope, thanks to our fragmented public health
system and overpriced, privatized and less than comprehensive health care. That bad situation
is made worse by the CDC being short on resources and hamstrung further by the Trump
Administration's PR imperatives."
Basically, it is expected that Europe manages the crisis less badly.
It has been interesting watching Dr. John Campbell's growing realisation & some shock
that everything is not well with the US healthcare system & he has received some abuse
but also support from Americans for his growing criticism.
His listing as requested of his 2 degrees & Phd, never mind his long front line
experience & his books I think shut some up for perhaps thinking that he was only a
nurse, but perhaps he shouda gone to NakedCapitalism.
I think vk is right about what could cause a belief in the narrative of a biological weapon
because the narrative itself is utterly pointless; the people claiming it is a weapon don't
seem to understand that it makes no positive or meaningful difference whether or not they
should turn out to be right.
Not only that but it doesn't help with anything and only makes things worse in that it
potentially obstructs from for example the continued search for the intermediary hosts and
potential original animal host population which -- if/when identified -- can help avoid
future outbreaks. In addition to that they stress and scare people unnecessarily which makes
it easier for them to become infected.
Think before spreading narratives based on outlier views from a few people, try to
question yourself as to whether all you're doing is chasing your own confirmation bias, try
to find and understand valid reasons why most knowledgeable people are not jumping to the
same conclusions.
However, it has been learned when a "name" gets attached to the regular flu season, panic
increases exponentially. Particularly when that name gets extended to "Trump's Katrina" or
the latest "Trump's Chernobyl".
The real infection is Democrat hysteria, so desperate to get their hands back on the
taxpayer's check book.
Coronavirus is not a new virus. There are several strains in circulation every year. This is
a new strain. Like other cold viruses, it mutates, so nobody ever has full immunity. Thats
why flu vaccines have low effectiveness. Thats why people get the flu and colds repeatedly
through their lifetimes.
People seem to have little understanding of how our immune system works. Most of us don't
need antibodies to fight off a cold or flu virus. Our innate immune system is the first line
of defense and for most people sufficient to defeat the virus. Antibodies take up to 2 weeks
to be produced in sufficient quantities after infection. While antibodies can help minimize
symptoms after reinfection, if the new virus is sufficiently different, something called the
original antigenic sin comes into play and can actually cause worse symptoms.
In older people, which are more severely affected by covid-19, an over reaction by the
complement system of the innate system is responsible. Due to chronic inflammation due to
aging the elderly have more active complement molecules than younger people. When antibodies
are produced after a couple of weeks this actually amplifies the complement response and
symptoms worsen, followed by death in some cases. Younger people who have no more humoral
immunity than older people are not severely affected as they have less inflammation and
complement molecules. Indeed young children's immune systems respond differently than adults
as their innate immune system works to minimize inflammation.
Now, people like to recite the CFR. Unfortunately, the mortality rate must be calculated
by deaths divided by total infections. Confirmed cases are not total infections. Total
infections are an order of magnitude higher because mild cases afe not tested and confirmed.
The flu mortality figures reported by cdc are not based on testing and confirmed cases, its
based on models. If they reported data based on actual testing. There would be far fewer
deaths and mortality rate would be higher.
Measles is a good example. In 1963 before vaccines, 400 deaths and 400,000 reported cases.
A fatality rate of 1000. However, doctors know that every child got measles during childhood,
although most were mild and not reported. So measles infections had to be 4 million a year.
This brings the mortality rate to 1/10,000. Big difference.
Outside of hubei, italy and iran, mortality rate based on confirmed cased is under 1%. For
those under 50 its less than 0.2%. The actual mortality rate is likely 10 times lower.
So, hate to say it, but Trump is right.
Lots of money to be made by hyping this though. When the market carnage is done with lots
of buying opportunities for the rich. Former CDC director working at Merck sold off half her
shares in January for millions. Going to be sone choice scraps to buy when markets hit
bottom.
@Pft #59
It is interesting that you keep leaving out the numbers of hospitalizations associated with
the measles data point you keep repeating.
nCOV isn't extremely dangerous from a guaranteed decimation of the population perspective, it
is dangerous because 20% of infected require hospitalization.
If the 20% don't get the respirator support, then decimation can occur (10% dead or more). In
the US, there's the extra bonus of the respirator/ICU support being a life-changing financial
event for a lot of people.
Close to 500,000 cases were reported annually to CDC, resulting in:
-48,000 hospitalizations
-1,000 cases with encephalitis (brain swelling)
-400 to 500 deaths
So your deaths number is somewhat accurate, if downplayed, but 500K cases of measles, 48,000
hospitalizations and 1000 cases of brain swelling = damage, if not death?
Well, that's certainly nothing to worry about.../sarc
At the risk of incurring Gretas wrath, turn up the heat.
From WHO's latest situation report
Outside Hubei in China/HK/Taiwan, with a population over 1.3 billion people, after over 2
months there were only 13, 000 cases, 116 deaths. CFR 1%. Assuming actual cases
underreported, which is likely, CFR is not more than flu. Only 9 new confirmed cases and 2
deaths in last 24 hrs.
In Western Pacific, 8100 cases, 62 deaths, only 2 new deaths last 24 hrs. CFR 0.7% based
on confirmed cases
Southeast Asia (warm places)
109 cases, 1 death. 16 new cases 1 death in last 24 hrs.
Americas , 362 cases, 12 deaths (10 from nursing home). CFR may be an outlier as explained
below
Europe (ex Italy) 4600 cases, 36 deaths, 0.8%. Last 24 hrs 1300 cases, 11 deaths.
For whatever reason, Iran, Italy, US and Hubei have more cases and higher mortality rates.
I'm not sure what they have in common with each other. Hubei has extraordinary pollution and
an aging population (as does China as a whole). Irans medical system is probably messed up
due to sanctions.
Italy has an aging population.
From the wsj
"In Italy, which has the oldest population in the world after Japan, 58% of Covid-19 patients
who died so far were over 80 years old, and a further 31% were in their 70s, according to the
National Institute of Health, Italy's disease-control agency.
"If we break it down by age group, our death rates are similar, or even lower, than those
reported in China," Giovanni Rezza, the institute's chief epidemiologist, told reporters on
Monday. "For better or for worse, we have a very old population."
Also, "Italy's testing policy also contributes to a higher ratio of deaths compared with
known infections, said Mr. Rezza. Italy has so far tested around 54,000 people, but is
focusing tests on those with clear symptoms and known contacts with high-risk areas. That
means many people who carry the virus but have mild or no symptoms aren't being tested."
And in US (Washington) most of deaths were from a nursing home. Like Italy the high
fatality rate in US is probably related to under testing. This is probably true in Iran and
Hubei as well.
Take home is to be cautious about CFR. Deaths are probably accurate and should be the best
indicator. Globally we have 3800 deaths among 8 billion people, the vast majority of whom are
older. Obviously, there will be more but still. Not much reason to panic.
But people are easy to scare, and there is money to be made and power to be seized, so
they scare people .
They have an untested vaccine, something they were working on for animals for 4 years.
There are at least 20 companies beginning testing of vaccines they have developed. None will
be ready in the near future, and tests on SARS vaccines in animals suggest those vaccinated
might be more susceptible to subsequent infection (flu vaccines are only about 50% effective
so vaccinated people get flu), so you would be in worse shape if it was not effective and you
get infected
The virus has an extremely high R0
value , calculated to be between 4.7 and 6.6, which makes it as infectious as smallpox and
polio.
Coronavirus is
spread via aerosols that can travel much further than droplets (several meters at least).
This type of spread can allow one infected person sitting in a bus to infect many of the
other passengers, even those sitting quite far away. The virus also remains infectious for
days on surfaces touched by an infected person.
This means that unless very drastic measures are taken to quarantine and restrict
transmission, it will multiply exponentially and will likely overwhelm any healthcare system,
including the US healthcare system.
See this video by Chris Martenson The US is in Deep
Trouble that explains the exponential spread of the virus. Estimating that there were
about 2000 case in the US on March 6, there will likely be 1 million cases in the US by the
end of April, and 2 million by the end of the first week May. Because there are only only
about 330,000 hospital beds that are open in the US (there are less than 1 million total and
less than 100,000 ICU beds), it means that by sometime in May-- at the latest -- all the
hospital beds in the US will likely be filled.
The situation will be made much worse because of shortages of masks and medications, which
will also cause the infection of many healthcare workers. The US gets 97% of all its
medications from China .
"... Since this is going to be a post about the coronavirus, let's start off with this PSA: wash your hands. These viruses have a lipid envelope that is crucial to their structure and function, and soaps and detergents are thus very effective at inactivating them. It's fast, it's simple, and it's one of the more useful things that any individual can do under these conditions. ..."
"... Since I read this, when I come home, I just grab a plain ordinary bar of soap, and lather up my hands real well, and leave the soap on my hands for 10 or 15 seconds or so. I now believe that ordinary soap is very effective at neutralizing this particular virus. ..."
"... So I will not go out and fight the crowds to buy some 'sanitizer'. At least not for CVD-19. ..."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ //
American Association for the Advancement of Science
By Derek Lowe 4 March, 2020 ScienceMag -
Pipeline
Since this is going to be a post about the coronavirus, let's start off with this PSA:
wash your hands. These viruses have a lipid envelope that is crucial to their structure and
function, and soaps and detergents are thus very effective at inactivating them. It's fast,
it's simple, and it's one of the more useful things that any individual can do under these
conditions.
// ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This involves just a bar of soap.
This fellow is a real hot-shot big-time microbiologist. Since I read this, when I come
home, I just grab a plain ordinary bar of soap, and lather up my hands real well, and leave
the soap on my hands for 10 or 15 seconds or so. I now believe that ordinary soap is very
effective at neutralizing this particular virus.
So I will not go out and fight the crowds to buy some 'sanitizer'. At least not for
CVD-19.
I am now also taking:
~6,000IU Vitamin D3
30mg Zinc Gluconate
500mg Vitamin C (this is a low amount)
1,000mcg Vitamin K2
250mg Niacinamide (not just 'niacin')
1 'One-A-Day' high quality vitamin combo
So I will not go out and fight the crowds to buy some 'sanitizer'. At least not for CVD-19.
There won't be any sanitiser soon.
Recipe for sanitiser:
Ingredients
• 3 TB aloe vera
• 2 TB witch hazel or rubbing alcohol, if using alcohol reduce to 1 TB
• 1/2 tsp vitamin E oil or olive or whatever
• 20 drops tea tree essential oil
• 10 drops lavender essential oil
Instructions
1. Combine all the ingredients in a bowl. Mix well and squeeze through muslin cloth into
another bow and store in a small jar or a squeeze tube.
Remedy for toilet paper madness:
install bidet spray and a drying cloth.
Wash cloth daily or whatever.
Good start on enhancing your immune system. Perhaps the following daily additions may
help:
(1) increase vitamin C to 1 g and use the liposomal form.
(2) Consider quercitin at 1-2 g per day as it is useful as an anti-viral and supports many
metabolic functions (common component in fruits and vegetables). https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/a-made-in-canada-solution-to-the-coronavirus-outbreak/
(3)n-acetyl glutathione or the glutathione precurser N acetyl-L-cysteine (NAC) 600-1200 mg as
it supports mitrochondrial function and reduces pulmonary fibrosis.
(4)Selenium at 200 mcg to improve thyroid health. Careful as selenium at much higher
levels
(5)curcumin as it provides protection from cytokine storms due to viral infections.
(6) omega-3 oils (1-2 g) and avoiding of omega-6 fats which cause inflammation.
"... I have graphs from 2009 flu, 1918 flu, Ebola and they all went through the 'Hockey stick' growth phase visible in the daily confirmed case counts in Europe. Humans can mess with this natural pattern with containment measures making artificial problems for the pathogen in finding its next target. ..."
A friend who was a known cellular and structural biologist explained that washing with
soap and water is just about the best thing a person can do externally about viruses, as it
kills just about everything. In the case of viruses, the soap basically dissolves or
penetrates the outside boundary of the virus and it collapses. Unfortunately, my friend
passed away not long ago, or he could provide a lot of insight into numerous issues and
unanswered questions about this "coronavirus".
One question is whether a virus has a life span or "shelf life", such that after some
period of months or time, it ceases to be active, or is mutated out of effective existence.
We talked about that once in general terms, but I do not remember clearly what was said, and
so I do not want to repeat it here.
Encapsulated viruses normally have a protein shell structure, like a geodesic dome, but
the overlay this with some of the of the animal cell membrane as it exits the host cell. This
is a phospholipid by-layer, so basically fatty. Hence hot water and and washing up liquid do
exactly what they do on your greasy plates.
akaPatients NO! I am sorry to be so blunt but what you are saying is dangerous. Seasonal
flu has a CFR of 0.02 ish for COVID we do not know yet but I guess about 1% (i.e. your are 50
times more likely to die of it) IF you get a reasonable level of care and hospitalisation if
you need it. The 1918 flu pandemic had a CFR of about 2% and killed 25 million people in
about as many weeks and 50 million plus overall. The population at the time was under 2
billion and is now 7.8 so these numbers need to be multiplied by 4. The very severe age
related CFR curve means this does not fall evenly by age groups and the China data gives the
CFR for the over 80s as 20%+ and the over 60s at 8%. I will link the WHO fact finding post
which has graphs for age distribution and the Chinese case growth curves.
ulenspiegel is on the money and I will try and explain why below because the point raised
is important in the next epidemic phase - which we have not yet entered.
Population dynamics and Epidemiology are mature sciences with well defined rules. If you
infect a yeast cell with virus and let it grow in a vat of yeast cells its growth curve looks
just like one from an ebola, flu or CoV outbreak. It starts as exponential growth until it
meets a problem e.g. most of the cells are dead or the hosts are immune from previous
infection at which point it levels off and then declines.
I have graphs from 2009 flu, 1918
flu, Ebola and they all went through the 'Hockey stick' growth phase visible in the daily
confirmed case counts in Europe. Humans can mess with this natural pattern with containment
measures making artificial problems for the pathogen in finding its next target.
We can also change the CFR through good patient care and the 1% CFR based on Chinese,
Korean and the Diamond Princess data are based on this. What ulenspiegel is talking about is
what occurs when the patient numbers are such that those who need a bed and oxygen or a
ventilator can not get them. Then the fatalities rise very sharply giving a much higher CFR.
COVID puts immense strain on some very specific hospital kit for which their is very little
surge capacity. PPE is the first item to cause a problem as very few people in a hospital
normally need the level of PPE that COVID does and consequently demand is outstripping supply
and if not rectified soon HCWs are going to be faced with the dilemma of treating patients,
or not, with no protection. If too many get ill polling data shows they will not work and put
their families at risk until adequate PPE is available. After PPE the next item that is going
to run out is ventilators. As severe double pneumonia is the common symptom for the severe
cases the standard treatment is induced coma and mechanical ventilation to oxygenate the
blood until the immune system can clear the infection to the point the lungs can take over
again. This requires an ICU bed and highly trained staff. England has about 4000 CCs
(critical care beds - one level down from ICU but these will include the ICUs) for 50 million
population of which 75% are normally in use. In bad flu seasons this capacity will max
out.
Which brings us to testing as a containment measure. The aim is stop, or at least slow,
spread. If we follow the typical outbreak scenario then patient 0 comes in from outside, he
breezes through airport security as he has no temp or symptoms. After a day or two he gets
mild general symptoms as the virus begins replicating and may start shedding after another
day or two he definitely does not feel well and has a temp then dry cough (normally not a
runny nose or much sputum) and suspects COVID and gets tested. It is those 2 or 3 days where
he is infecting others that seed the next generation of cases. The trick with contact tracing
is finding those contacts and isolating them before they have their turn in spreading the
virus. Get to the testing fast and the contact tracing very fast and you can break the
transmission chain and end the cluster. Do it repeatedly and you put the epidemic in reverse
which frees up more contact tracers so it gets progressively easier to end the epidemic. This
is a proven technique that works for most diseases but not flu. China and Korea have used it
fairly successfully to bring numbers down to manageable levels but not to stop all
transmission. Assuming China can maintain its current case burden they will ONLY have had
100,000 cases in 1.4 billion or 0.1% of the population. If the disease gets out of control
this could grow to 20% or more so we are in the very early stages of a full blown pandemic if
we can not control it the daily case counts could reach the 100s of thousands. This is not
something any of our health systems could cope with and most severe cases would die without
ever getting near a hospital. Even if we can not stop it making sure bad city clusters come
one after the other - where help can come in from outside - and not in parallel will help
spread the load over time so the surge limit is not badly overrun for any length of time.
Brewster #30 writes : "But, viruses do not have lipid coats."
Absolutely incorrect. Many viruses do NOT have lipid coats but many other do. And those
that do have such coverings are rendered non-infectious when exposed to detergents (i.e.
soaps) especially in warm water.
The article states the peer-reviewed study was withdrawn by the journal, no other
explanation given:
Note: The study at the centre of this article on the transmission of the coronavirus was
retracted on Tuesday by the journal Practical Preventive Medicine without giving a reason.
The South China Morning Post has reached out to the paper's authors and will update the
article.
The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and
travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the "safe distance" advised by health
authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government
epidemiologists.
The researchers also found that it can last for days on a surface where respiratory
droplets land, raising the risk of transmission if unsuspecting people touch it and then
rub their face.
On surfaces SARS CoV 1 has shown to retain infectivity for longer when these are dry.
Then, you cannot separate easily the effects of humidity and temperature but usually the
higher the temperature, the higher the absolute humidity, and this means our epithelial
mucosae are better hydrated and less susceptible to infection, in part probably because
protective microflora in good shape helps to protect us.
So, in order to become infected in warm/hot weather a higher virus load is necessary and
the possibility for a mild or very mild infection is higher.
I personally think that passing a mild cough these summer would be preferable to something
more serious next winter, though I am not sure if a mild infection would trigger a protective
immune response.
This article gives a very
cogent identification of the factors leading to a fatal lung infection. To distill it in few
words : it is either because the immune response is slow, and let the virus multiply too much
in the lungs, or there are several infections occurring at the same time, and even if the
immune system reaction time is normal, there are too much virus in the lungs after that
time.
In both cases, the immune system response to too much virus triggers an irreversible
necrosis of lung tissues.
Young and healthy fatalities clearly belong to the second group, and explain why young
Doctors and Nurses are impacted.
Therefore the strategy must be self isolation of fragile people (old is not equivalent to
fragile, both way, and yes, being immuno-depressed by chemo sucks, it is really being thrown
between a rock and a hard place), and frequent rotation of healthcare workers. Ideally, one
should have them work one day, then send them home three days, test and send back to work is
negative.
Another way is too have 2 health systems, one for the virus, one for the rest. This is
what one of the main hospital in Paris did : they installed their reception and triage area
in a tent separate from the rest of the hospital
For others, lowering the absolute quantity of virus to which they are exposed when they
contract the virus is essential : open these windows if you can !
Clive, as an almost-80 year old myself, I appreciate your care for your mother-in-law. I
have been touched by the daily concern of my son and daughter-in-law, as they check in with
me a couple of times a day, offer to do grocery shopping, drop off little bags of herbal tea
and chocolate cookies. It means a lot.
Last night, I had read the 'testimony' of the hospital physician in Bergamo, whom Yves
quotes above. One thing to watch for is the speed at which this virus results in respiratory
distress (and this was mentioned by the Seattle-area care home staff recently; a patient was
symptomatic but not distressed, then, boom, they can't breathe, and they die.)
The Bergamo doctor explains the difference between the 'normal' seasonal flu and this
virus: " in classical flu, besides that it infects much less population over several months,
cases are complicated less frequently: only when the virus has destroyed the protective
barriers of our airways and as such it allows bacteria (which normally resident in the upper
airways) to invade the bronchi and lungs, causing a more serious disease. Covid 19 causes a
banal flu in many young people, but in many elderly people (and not only) a real SARS because
it invades the alveoli of the lungs directly, and it infects them making them unable to
perform their function. The resulting respiratory failure is often serious and after a few
days of hospitalization, the simple oxygen that can be administered in a ward may not be
enough. "
The real story is how over a billion people fully believe the official narrative of the
virus growth and how this huge portion of the population can now be coaxed to move in any
direction by closely-knit groups controlling political and institutional power. Who owns the
broadcast and publishing rights? Who dictates what is being transmitted over the
airwaves?
What kind of emotional footprint and controlling mechanism has been placed on the
underdeveloped minds of the youth throughout the world? Who has the power to manipulate these
kids in the future by using a fabricated fear of acquiring a mysterious virus?
Cautionary note: before getting too excited about the claims of Francis Boyle, one should be
aware that during the Bosnian War (1992–1995), Boyle took at face value all the wildly
exaggerated disinformation put out by the Bosnian Muslim government side. Ask the Saker about
how truthful that stuff was; he was in a position to know.
As such, I question Boyle's judgement. Though perhaps this coronavirus issue is closer to
his area of expertise.
This essay is interesting for the contextual background information it provides but should
have been presented earlier since it is no longer completely up-to-date. For instance, there
are no references to the recent viral outbreaks in Iran and Italy, which have become
comparatively severe. Also, though Prof. Boyle is mentioned more than a dozen times, it does
not cite the live interview he gave nearly three weeks ago*, in which he stated that he was
revising his prior suspicion that the Wuhan coronavirus could have come from stolen material
from the Winnipeg lab and was instead almost certain that a key component came from a
university lab in North Carolina, which was then enhanced ("gain of function", another key
term not in this essay) in Wuhan to be more "effective" (deadly).
It would be nice to read a follow-up report that provides revelations pertaining to more
recent developments regarding this topic. Surely the hundreds of deaths in Europe in the past
weeks could not possibly have been primarily of eastern Asiatic victims, so if this is
basically still the same virus that initially emerged in Wuhan, it was likely not designed to
be race-specific. This is yet another indication that would tend to invalidate the conjecture
about an intentional release by American operatives during the time of the Wuhan military
games. (See link below regarding this debate in the comments.)
* See my comments in a parallel thread for the interview links (video and transcript)
provided:
Those most at risk for severe influenza infection are children, pregnant women,
elderly, those with underlying chronic medical conditions and those who are
immunosuppressed. For COVID-19, our current understanding is that older age and underlying
conditions increase the risk for severe infection.
On Friday, Macron urged the French to limit visits to elderly people, who are most
vulnerable to a coronavirus infection.
Macron admitted this could prove "heartbreaking" at times but said the measure was
simply one of common sense.
He emphasised that young people should not be visiting the old because "as we know,
they (the young) transmit the virus a lot".
Those who died in France so far have been old with pre-existing conditions.
The French president shook up his agenda last week to include a visit to an old age
home, where he stressed his government's commitment to helping those most vulnerable to the
disease.
"Our absolute priority is to protect the people who are the most fragile in the face
of this virus," Macron said. "The nation is behind our old people."
They could all be lying or misleading by omission or selectivity, of course.
Same in the U.K. and on the Diamond Princess -- deaths were in the older cohort.
That isn't to say that some young people won't get sick and some won't get serious
illnesses and some won't die. But so far, the reliable (i.e. non-China) data does continue to
support the age-indicator for the likelihood of morbidity.
What is -- and continues to be -- a big mystery is the lack of deaths in Germany.
Or, I don't know, maybe it is the Bat Flu. The more I read the
corporate press, the more I'm beginning to suspect it is. My suspicion isn't based on facts. I
don't have any of the Bat Flu symptoms. It's just a feeling like the feelings people had that
Saddam had secret WMDs, and that Trump was a Russian intelligence asset, and that the world was
going to end in the year 2012.
OK, those feelings turned out to be wrong, but this one feels like an accurate feeling, and
not like just the result of being relentlessly bombarded with hysterical headlines, pictures of
people in hazmat suits, and obsessively researching ever-changing, wildly-varying statistics on
the Internet, which I really need to stop doing that.
... ... ...
Plus, even if I just have the flu (i.e., the regular flu, not the Chinese Bat
Flu), the statistics on that are pretty scary. I don't know the numbers here in Germany, but,
according to the
CDC , since 2010, in the United States, the regular old garden variety flu has resulted in
the following, annually:
9 million – 45 million cases
140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations
12,000 – 61,000 deaths
When you multiply all those numbers by 10 (because it's been 10 years since 2010), you
get:
90 million – 450 million cases
1,400,000 – 8,100,000 hospitalizations
120,000 – 610,000 deaths
That's 450 million possible cases and over half a million deaths, and that's just in the
United States! To make it concrete, if you stood all those dead people on top of each other,
head to toe, so that everyone was standing on everyone's head, and used them as an enormous
ladder, you could climb to the moon and back four times or once or twice at the very least.
And that's nothing compared to this Covid-19!
No, according to The Guardian , Covid-19 is "about ten times more deadly than the seasonal flu," so
that's 610,000 deaths just this year, and if the CDC tracks it for a full 10 years, that's
pretty close to 6 million dead people, which will make it just as bad as the Holocaust
(although the Holocaust only lasted four years, so I'll have to adjust my math for that).
And, remember, that's just in the United States, which is only 4.25 percent of the total
global population. So you multiply the Holocaust by 95 percent (you can round the numbers to
make this easier) and you end up with 7 billion dead people, which is nearly every last person
on Earth, except for 700 million people! Which, OK, that sounds like a lot of people (i.e., the
700 million, not the 7 billion), but it's fewer than there were in the 14th Century; i.e.,
before the "Black Death" plague killed everybody!
... ... ...
Or, I don't know, maybe I'm overreacting. Maybe I just have the flu. I mean, what if this
whole Corona thing is just nature doing what nature does and not the end of civilization? Look,
I don't want to sound paranoid, but I can't help wondering whether this virus warrants all the
mass hysteria that the corporate media have been pumping out at us, relentlessly, for the last
two months, and the states of emergency that are being declared, and the quarantines that are
going into effect, and the curfews, and banning of public gatherings, and whatever other
"emergency measures" are going to be imposed in the coming weeks and months.
C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and political satirist
based in Berlin. His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing and Broadway Play Publishing,
Inc. His dystopian novel, Zone 23 , is
published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant. Volume I of his Consent Factory
Essays is published by Consent Factory Publishing, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Amalgamated
Content, Inc. He can be reached at cjhopkins.com or consentfactory.org . Read other articles by C. J. .
To be honest, staff at my local Sainsburys were under the assumption that I've been panic
buying alcohol for the last four and a half years. #coronavirusUK
#toiletpaperpanic
As COVID-19 begins its inevitable "community transmission" phase around the United States,
the purveyors of the conventional wisdom are largely focused on President Trump's (and by
extension,
prayerful Vice President Pence's) incompetence and his self-serving, empathy-free approach
to the coronavirus. And it is true that, as with all things Trump, it seems that all he really
cares about is the stock market and its effect on his reelection bid. But Trump's narcissism
obscures something both far more pernicious and far more permanent than his oft-televised
obsession with himself and that's the fact that he's been busily making Milton Friedman's
"Supply Side/The Bottom Line Is The Only Line" dream an intractable reality.
It was a dream that first took flight when Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980. The dream was
often made manifest by the neoliberal lurch and deregulatory impulses of President Bill
Clinton. But it is Trump who's come closest to fully realizing the dream of ending responsive
government. It should come as no surprise, though. Trump lifted, among other things ,
his " Make America
Great Again " slogan from the Gipper. He's also taken Reagan's anti-FDR pitch about the
dangers of government (see "The Deep State") and, with the help of a motley crew of Tea
Partiers, Evangelicals and corporate Republicans, transformed it into, as Steve Bannon calls
it, a "
War on the Administrative State ."
Since taking office and taking complete control of the news-cycle, Trump has been
systematically starving Federal agencies of resources, personnel and attention. He has, through
the sycophants
and
lobbyists he's installed around the Executive Branch, been pushing out career professionals
and barely replacing them with also-rans. And he is dismantling every aspect of government
he cannot
use to reward his corporate clients or punish political apostates.
The idea is to cripple the Federal government from within instead of doing the hard
legislative work of changing the laws that legally compel government action. As a result, many
of the regulations on the books are becoming
functionally irrelevant . Some laws are being rewritten by the lobbyists who used to lobby
against 'em, but mostly the Executive Branch is being systematically emaciated by the political
equivalent of chronic wasting disease.
It's an approach first pioneered by Reagan devotee Grover Norquist, who advocated "
starving the beast
" of government down to a manageable size before "drowning it" in a bathtub. It's an idea
currently being implemented with wide-ranging effect by Trump, who, like Reagan before
him , is
accelerating the bankrupting of the already debt-laden treasury with a combo of tax cuts
and massive spending on a world-dwarfing defense industry. Eventually, the theory goes, the
"safety net," a.k.a. "entitlements," and other "common good" spending will collapse under the
weight of the financial limitations generated by profuse borrowing to fund market-distorting
tax cuts and to dole out subsidies and tax gifts to cronies and key corporations. All the
while, the ever-less regulated chemical, oil, defense, agricultural and (most importantly of
all) financial industries will continue to hoard assets through the rinsing and repeating of
the supply side boom-and-bust scheme, a.k.a. the business cycle.
Frankly, this all looks like the endgame of a long plan to undo the demand side economy
created by the New Deal. Along with the seemingly (but not) contradictory spike in Unitary
Executive power (which is about protecting rackets, shielding enforcers from prosecution
and about enforcing political compliance), this is a transformation decades in the making and
Trump is the perfect salesman for this final episode even better than Reagan or Clinton because
his "flood the zone" narcissism is the ultimate, 24/7 distraction for a people addicted to
binge watching, inured to scripted reality shows and motivated by belligerent infotainment.
Reagan was the first actor to hit his marks on a stage set for him by the interlocking
forces of Big Oil, Big Defense and Wall Street. Not coincidentally, this same Venn Diagram of
power has profited mightily from Trump's Presidency. Rather than an actor, though, Trump is the
barking emcee of the final season of the American Dream Gameshow a program that was initially
cancelled in 1980, but somehow kept running in syndication on one of the two crappy channels a
"free" people have been given to chose from. But now, the final credits are closer to rolling
that ever before.
As such, Trump is the omega to Reagan's alpha. And any coronavirus-related "incompetence"
you see being reported is a feature, not a bug, of this Re-Great'd America. And that's because
Trump is not an outlier. He is a culmination.
JP Sottile is a freelance journalist, published historian, radio co-host and
documentary filmmaker (The Warning, 2008). His credits include a stint on the Newshour news
desk, C-SPAN, and as newsmagazine producer for ABC affiliate WJLA in Washington. His weekly
show, Inside the Headlines w/ The Newsvandal, co-hosted by James Moore, airs every Friday on
KRUU-FM in Fairfield, Iowa. He blogs under the pseudonym " the Newsvandal ".
"The coronavirus seems to be more deadly than seasonal flu and almost as contagious"
Fever and dry cough are the most reliable symptoms: "The World Health Organization believes that only about 1
percent of cases never develop a fever or any other symptoms."
Symptoms of this infection include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or
shortness of breath. The illness causes lung lesions and pneumonia. Some of these symptoms
overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses
are not normally among the first symptoms.
Patients may also exhibit gastrointestinal problems or diarrhea. Most people fall ill five
to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days
or as
many as 14 days .
The new coronavirus
seems to
spread very easily , especially in confined spaces like homes, hospitals, churches and
cruise ships. It appears to spread through droplets in the air and on surfaces from a cough or
sneeze.
A study of other coronaviruses found that they remained on metal, glass and plastic for two
hours to nine
days . But there is good news: The virus is relatively easy to destroy using any simple
disinfectant or bleach.
Droplets can sit on the surfaces of latex gloves. Some experts suggest wearing cloth or
leather gloves that absorb droplets and are bulky enough to discourage you from
touching your face .
Will the virus disappear in the summer?
That is still unknown. This is a new virus, and everyone is believed to be susceptible.
Flu transmission decreases in hot weather every year, and the SARS coronavirus emerged in winter and was eliminated by the
following June. But SARS was beaten by aggressive containment measures, not by the weather. The four mild coronaviruses that
cause common colds still circulate in warm weather and cause “summer colds.”
In the 1918 and 2009 flu pandemics, there was a second wave in the fall.
Patients with hypertension appear to be at a higher risk of dying from the coronavirus, said
a top Chinese intensive care doctor who's been treating critically ill patients since
mid-January.
While there's been no published research yet explaining why, Chinese doctors working in
Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the virus first emerged, have noticed that infected
patients with that underlying illness are more likely to slip into severe distress and die.
Of a group of 170 patients who died in January in Wuhan -- the first wave of casualties
caused by a pathogen that's now raced around the world -- nearly half had hypertension.
"That's a very high ratio," said Du Bin, director of the intensive care unit at Peking Union
Medical College Hospital, in an interview with Bloomberg over the phone from Wuhan. He was
among a team of top doctors sent to the devastated city two months ago to help treat patients
there.
A. The first known patients in the U.S. contracted the virus while traveling in other
countries or after exposure to someone who had been to China or one of the other affected
areas. But now, a few cases here cannot be traced to these risk factors. This is
concerning because it suggests the illness may be spreading across communities for which the
source of infection is unknown, which we call community spread/transmission. We don't
know how severe this will be, but it may cause significant disruptions in our daily
lives.
Investigative journalist Jon Rappoport stated that death by itself does not equal
coronavirus, and that the word 'death' is being matched with the virus to make people
believe in lethal outbreaks. He analyzed the nine deaths in Washington state and revealed
that the body count included "presumed" coronavirus deaths that could have other causes. It
is unknown whether the people who died were treated with toxic anti-viral drugs or whether
they had preexisting lung conditions.
"Virality of C19 is overstated due to conflating diagnosis date with contraction date &
over-extrapolating exponential growth, which is never what happens in reality," he said in a tweet
Sunday, noting that people
mistakenly believe the rate of spread will continue exponentially.
Musk added : "Fatality rate also greatly
overstated. Because there are so few test kits, those who die with respiratory symptoms are
tested for C19, but those with minor symptoms are usually not. Prevalence of coronaviruses
& other colds in general population is very high!"
U.S. officials are taking the matter
seriously , telling people to prepare for the worst if the virus spreads.
California, for one, is monitoring at least 8,400 people who might have come into contact
with the virus, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said
during a news conference Thursday.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Americans on Tuesday to prepare for
the "expectation that this might be bad," with Italy emerging as the focal point of the virus
in Europe, while Iran and China seeks ways of fighting the spread as confirmed cases grow.
The relationship of this pandemic to internal disagreements within China has been put on
full display in Steve Bannon's coverage of the crisis entitled War Room: Pandemic. A
prominent member of US President Donald Trump's inner circle, Steve Bannon is often
accompanied on the daily show by Chinese billionaire dissident , Miles Guo (aka Guo
Wengui, Miles Haoyun, Miles Kwok)
.
You mean Chinese billionaire fugitive , wanted in China for fraud, embezzlement and
rape
Guo is an outspoken Chinese refugee . He is a persistent critic of virtually
every facet of the policies and actions of the Chinese Communist Party.
I'd presume that 'political exiles' like Guo's well being in the [[[Washington cesspool]]]
depends on his performance as an 'outspoken former insider' ?
I think a lot of people here are leaning towards USrael -- developed in Fort Derrick and
Haifa.
Sorry, Fort Detrick (autocorrect).
Since the death toll* has not been commensurate with the scare propaganda -- completely
disproportionate -- something else seems to be behind the propaganda. Either it was seized
upon for political and/or geostrategic purposes or it is a bio-weapon and its source let it
be known through back channels that this is DEFCON-1 level serious.
*The worldwide death toll from 3 years of the Coronavirus-SARS in the early to mid-2000's
was equivalent to the number of death in 3 days of the flu in the U.S. As someone else posted
here, on the worst day for coronavirus (02/10/20) there were 108 deaths from Coronavirus in
China. Meanwhile on that same day there where 450 deaths from the flu in the U.S. On that day
there were more deaths from snakebites than Coronavirus.
@Thomasina I've asked my Chinese friends to look into Dr. Li's death and will get back to
you if they turn up anything.
There have been at least 18 reported deaths of medical workers involved in the COVID-19
response as of Monday, including nurses and doctors who died–not because of infection
but because of cardiac arrest or other ailments due to overwork and fatigue. One was hit by a
car while taking temperatures on a highway.
The most recent were three doctors who died in one day, all infected with COVID-19. One of
them, Xia Sisi, a gastroenterologist in Wuhan, was 29. Another physician, Peng Yinhua, also
29, died in Wuhan of infection on Feb. 20. He had delayed his Feb. 1 wedding, promising his
pregnant fiancee they'd have the ceremony after the outbreak had passed.
Most of the infected medical workers are in Hubei, many of them part of the initial
response in Wuhan, when shortages of protective gear, understaffed hospitals and
transportation shutdowns collided with an overwhelming number of patients. The stories of
doctors and nurses tell of clever improvisation and quiet perseverance in a war against a
mysterious virus.
A doctor in Wuhan told The Times in a phone interview Jan. 29 that 12 out of 59 doctors in
his hospital were showing symptoms of the virus, including lung infections -- but continued
to treat patients while wearing insufficient protective gear.
@Godfree Roberts My wife is Chinese and keeping daily tabs on what is going on there.
Bottom line: these doctors in China are heroes, working their asses off nearly round the
clock. They are in the front lines, severely over-worked and ultra stressed out trying to
save the lives of their fellow countrymen. If there is a recipe for a young person with no
other risk factors to become susceptible to the virus, this is it.
Although I hope so, I wonder if our doctors here in America would be so fearless and
patriotic to undergo the rigors and risks these Chinese doctors are doing, especially if it
was without substantial 'hazard pay' above their already very generous remunerations.
Dr. Shoham [the Israeli academic] notes that the government of China became a signatory
in 1984 to UN's Biological Weapons Convention of 1972.
Too bad that the author did not mention that Israel is not a signatory to UN's Biological
Weapons Convention.
The heart of the essay introducing readers to the genesis of China's biological warfare
capacities highlights a speech given in 2005 by Chi Hoatian, an important General in the
People's Liberation Army.
Wasn't the author alarmed by the audacity of content of the alleged speech? Who actually
made available the speech in 2005? Wasn't it The Epoch Times, the press organ of Falun Gong?
Imo, the speech does not pass the smell test to be authentic. It is a psyop.
Zero Hedge was permanently deplatformed by the corporate censors at Twitter
I get an impression that for the author the fact of deplatforming alone somehow
legitimizes Zero Hedge and by extension Senator Cotton, Indian propaganda outfit
GreatGameIndia, Steve Bannon and ultimately the busybody Israeli operative Dr. Dany Shoham.
Is it possible that this deplatforming was intentional to make the conspiracy theory pushed
by Zero Hedge that China did it more appealing than the other conspiracy theory that China
was attacked by the external enemy?
The initial findings of the researchers have been published on line in a paper entitled,
"Uncanny Similarity of Unique Inserts in the 2019-nCoV Spike Protein to HIV-1 gp120 and
Gag." At the time of writing this essay, the University of Delhi's much-smeared
contribution to COVID-19 research continues to be available on the line even though it is
still making its way through the process of peer review with possible future revisions.
Before going down himself in the line of duty, Dr. Li faced a harsh reprimand from
representatives of the Chinese Communist Party. Dr. Li was accused of spreading rumors and
illegally threatening the social order with his tweets and posts and personal
interventions. Nevertheless, Dr. Li was soon vindicated in calling attention to the coming
plague .
Not really. Li was a junior ophthalmologist at a Wuhan hospital who overheard a rumor that
SARS had broken out again. Li did not inform China's CDC, which was already investigating it.
Instead, Li used social media to repeat the rumor to family and friends and they told their
friends .
Li was wrong professionally: it was not SARS, as he asserted in his tweets. Li was wrong
legally: it is illegal to spread rumors likely to cause panic. Li was neither harshly
questioned nor convicted of anything. After an hour of questioning the police concluded that
he had merely acted irresponsibly and he was allowed to return to work.
The Wuhan Coronavirus epidemic of 2020 is causing the once-firm ground beneath many
established institutions to shake uncontrollably. One of those institutions, the Chinese
communist government, is encountering its Chernobyl moment .
Every multilateral public health body that has studied the outbreak has praised the
timeliness, thoroughness, and effectiveness of China's response. Don't be fooled by our
media's selective use of outbursts on Chinese social media. This may be seen as much a
triumph for China as a failure for its principal critic, the US. China's government was, and
remains, the most trusted on earth.
The fact that ground zero of the Novel Coronavirus is Wuhan, home of China's newest
and most sophisticated microbiology laboratory, naturally casts a shadow of doubt over
narratives minimizing the role of human agency in creating the new strain of
Coronavirus .
Ron Unz's comments, above, cast a much darker shadow, given America's track record of
waging biological warfare on China, Cuba, et al.
Clearly the Party initially failed the people by not intervening early and decisively
enough after the first cases of Coronavirus illness began to show up .
The Chinese Communist Party took half the time to intervene in this outbreak that the
American Capitalist Party took to intervene in the its home-brewed H1N1 outbreak. See the two
timelines here: https://youtu.be/rJiKxV4rTCQ
Dr Li Wenliang was NOT a whistleblower. He wrote to his private chat group about the
re-emergence of SARS at 5:35pm on Dec 30 2019.
However the health authority of Wuhan received the genetic report of the virus earlier the
day, and released two official announcements the same day afternoon to thousands of medical
personnel. Dr Li was an eye doctor and probably saw the memo, and wrote to his private chat
group saying that it was SARS. He was reprimanded because the disease was still unknown at
that time.
Two emergency notices issued on Dec 30:
–
《关于做好不明原因肺炎救治工作的紧急通知》– Emergency notice to all medical units about the emergence of a kind of penumonia of
unkwown origin, get organized to deal with it, administer aid immediately without passing on
responsibility to other units with focus on strengthening breathing, infection control, and
other relevant medical disciplines. Report cases without delay.
–
《市卫生健康委关于报送不明原因肺炎救治情况的紧急通知》– Emergency notice to all medical units to tabulate and report to us the cases of
pneumonia of unknown origin that you encountered this past week.
" Dr. Li who was reprimanded for refusing to go along with the CCP denial of the Novel
Coronavirus's existence."
What a dumb author who still can manage to make two mistakes in half a sentence, even
after so many rounds of clarifications by so many people.
CCP did not deny the existence of COVID-19, they were investigating it at that time. And
Dr Li was not reprimand for refusing to go along, but was reprimanded because he was shouting
fire in a crowded cinema, a type of speech that US Supreme Court won't allow too.
"Nathan Rich might try explaining not only the block on Facebook in China but the nature
of the larger Internet firewall."
Nathan Rich did explain about the blocking on Facebook in China:
Just to smash on the head of those ignorant clowns: China didn't block Facebook, Google or
others. These companies refuse to obey Chinese laws. That is the reason they can't operate in
China. For example, Facebook refuses to remove hundreds of hate-China groups (7:50 of the
video), including some that advocate using violence to destroy China. It is a flagrant
violation of Chinese laws. If Facebook dare to allow violent hate-US groups, you think it
won't be banned in US too?
This, of course, is in contrast to Huawei, who agrees to obey every single US law but yet
is still banned to operate in US.
I look at the treatment of Dr. Li who was reprimanded for refusing to go along with the
CCP denial of the Novel Coronavirus's existence. The attack on Dr. Li as a Chinese version
of a "conspiracy theorist," when he was in fact a whistle blower, speaks to me of similar
patterns I perceive in the West. Dr. Li is a symbol of the assault on free expression on
both China and the so-called West.
You took no notice of Godfree Roberts clarification about Li's involvement, namely the
fact that he was spreading a rumour about which he had no authority or expertise to speak
about when the medical competent bodies were still studying the nature of the viral
infections. He was wrong on both counts anyway: by spreading a rumour and that it was a false
rumour. Besides, as far as I remember the sequence of events, by the time the rumour started
the medical authorities were about to, or in the cusp of, making a public announcement about
the virus.
It was a minor issue anyway – the fellow was reprimanded, not shot. Why bloviating
it out of all proportions?!!! Because the capitalist mass media did it, the Chinese
billionaire dit it, and Tony Hall must also do it?
I also note the tendentious lean of your comment by the crude reference to the Chinese
Communist Party as if this issue is a political contest. China has a properly constituted
government like any country and a functioning department of health to deal with health
issues. The Communist Party has no function to perform here or anywhere in the public
administration.
Your comment suggests only an ignorant or malevolent intention, probably both. Perhaps
these are harsh words, possibly meant to impress on you the importance of using language
appropriately and properly to be credible.
I've never trusted this Dr.Li story to be honest, it made my internal fake meter go off big
time. In fact this whole corona virus issue seems like badly done deep state propaganda. All
of the evidence that we have so far, both from the main stream sources like Governments and
from the alternative sources like social media is fishy at best. Of course you have some
videos where you see people who are genuinely worried and in some cases terrified. But how do
we know these people are not simply fooled by the propaganda themselves, or are perhaps deep
state actors? We all know how easily people are fooled.
I'll be the first to admit that my suspicions are wrong if and when I witness real proof
of a pandemic, but as of now, I don't buy any of it, none, ziltch.
Now that being said, there is zero doubt that something big is afoot! And that whatever
the case may be, it is all being done with extreme intention. That is obvious.
Whether this op is sinister or not? Well as good book teaches us to do, I'll judge by the
fruits that spring forth once the dust settles.
Almost every day the BBC's One-minute World News provides
the latest death tally from coronavirus. The short news wrap-up typically covers about three
news items only, meaning that for the BBC, the virus has been among the top three most
important issues for the world, daily for the last two months.
All the other mainstream media outlets are likewise reporting on every single angle to this
story they can, including regular updates of the global tally and a country-by-country
breakdown.
The impact of such intense coverage of the virus is widespread fear, even though pedestrians
are still 13 times more likely to be killed by a car than by this virus.
Further, media-based concern about irreversible climate change and the ubiquitous sexual
abuse of women seems to have died down. Those issues have become less of an emergency, and the
sense that governments and businesses need to rectify straight away, has diminished.
While
3,000 people have unfortunately died from coronavirus over the past two months (50 people
per day), here are some stats on some comparatively atrocious epidemics that we should also be
informed about every single hour, in lurid detail, until something changes:
–
87,000 women a year, or 238 a day, are murdered.
– 36,000 people a
day are forced to flee their homes, with a total of 70.8 million people currently forcibly
displaced.
– 24,600 people die every day
from starvation, and
820 million people don't have enough food to eat.
–
10,000
people die daily because they lack access to healthcare.
–
6,000 people die daily from work-related accidents or illnesses, for 2.3 million people
per year. There are 340 million occupational accidents every year.
– 2,191 people
die to suicide every day, for 800,000 per year.
– 1,643 people
die every day due to second-hand smoking.
– An estimated 560,000 people were killed in Syria by December
2018.
– Almost half of humanity is living on less than
US$5.50
per day.
... ... ...
And the mainstream media will not talk much about these things. That isn't just because rich
people can't catch poverty, it's because the mainstream media is capitalist and it does not
recognize systemic issues, and certainly not the causes and solutions to them. The media
pretends not to, but it does have an agenda, and that agenda is in fact counter to the one that
us serious journalists commit to – to revealing the bruises of the world and the
screaming injustices and holding those in power accountable.
Panic and fomenting fear are well-tried methods of control, distraction, and of shifting
popular support towards the rightwing. On the other hand, raising awareness of the sickening
global inequality and the daily pain so many are subject to develops critical thought, and
would be empowering and disrupting, and so the mainstream media does not do that.
"Perhaps this will finally burst the out-of-control asset price bubble and drop-kick the
Outlaw US Empire's economy into the sewer as the much lower price will rapidly slow the
recycling of what remains of the petrodollar. Looks like Trump's reelection push just fell
into a massive sinkhole as the economy will tank."
Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 9 2020 1:29 utc | 49
....
Call me crazy- but this Virus provides great cover as to why the economy plummets, the
Murikan sheeple will eat it up. Prepare for the double media blitz on the virus AND the
economy tanking as its result.
Don't worry...just continue to go shopping and take those selfies.
It will be hard for the American people to swallow that one. From day 1 I've read a lot of
"articles" and "papers" from know-it-all Western doctors and researchers from commenters here
in this blog, all of them claiming to have very precise and definitive data on what was
happening. A lot of bombastic conclusions I've read here (including one that claimed R0 was
through the roof - it's funny how the R0 is being played down after it begun to infect the
West; suddenly, it's all just a stronger cold...).
And that's just here, in MoA's comment section. Imagine what was being published in the
Western MSM. I wouldn't be surprised there was a lot of rednecks popping their beers
celebrating the fall of China already.
Since China allegedly had a lot of idle industrial capacity - that is, if we take the
Western MSM theories seriously (including the fabled "ghost towns" stories) - then boosting
production wouldn't be a problem to China.
Disclaimer: it's normal for any kind of economy - socialist or capitalist - to have a
certain percentage of idle capacity. That's necessary in order to insure the economy against
unexpected oscillations in demand and to give space of maneuvre for future technological
progress. Indeed, that was one of the USSR's mistakes with its economy: they instinctly
thought unemployment should be zero, and waste should also be zero, so they planned in a way
all the factories always sought to operate at 100% capacity. That became a problem when
better machines and better methods were invented, since the factory manager wouldn't want to
stop production so that his factory would fall behind the other factories in the five-year
plan's goals. So, yes, China indeed has idle capacity - but it is mainly proposital, not a
failure of its socialist planning.
By the latest count, in addition to yuan loans worth 113 billion U.S. dollars granted by
financial institutions and more than 70 billion U.S. dollars paid out by insurance companies,
the Chinese government has allocated about 13 billion U.S. dollars to counter fallout from
the outbreak.
The numbers could look abstract. However, breaking the data down reveals how the money is
being carefully targeted. The government is allocating the money based on a thorough
evaluation of the system's strengths.
...
Local governments are equipped with more local knowledge that allows them to surgically
support key manufacturers or producers that are struggling.
Together, they have borne the bulk of the financial responsibility with an allocation of
equivalently more than nine billion U.S. dollars. It is carefully targeted, divided into
hundreds of thousands of individual grants that are tailor-made by and for each county, town,
city and business.
This is the mark of a socialist system.
The affected capitalist countries will simply use monetary devices (so the private sector
can offset the losses) and burn their own reserves with non-profitable palliatives such as
masks, tests, other quarantine infrastructure etc.
Sounds like US socialism. Basically corporate socialism. Loans are just dollars created out
of thin air, same as in US. Insurance payouts come from premiums, nothing socialist about
that, pure capitalism. Government hand outs to provinces, cities, state owned
corporations,well all of these are run by the party elite, its called pork. US handed out a
lot of pork during the last financial crisis. None of it trickled down to the little people.
I doubt it does in China either.
All crisis are opportunities for the elite to get richer. Those Biolake firms in Wuhan
will make out like bandits. Chinese firms will double the price of API's sold to India and
US. China will knock out the small farmer in the wake of concurrent chicken and swine flu so
the big enterprises take over, a mimicry of the US practice over the last century. China tech
firms will double up on surveillance apps, censoring tools, surveillance and toughen up
social credit restrictions. 5G will allow China to experiment with nanobots to monitor
citizens health from afar (thanks to Harvards Dr Leiber).
Oh yes, socialism with Chinese characteristics is a technocratic capitalists dream. Thats
why the West has never imposed sanctions on China since welcoming them to the global elites
club. Sanctions are reserved for those with true socialism, especially those who preach
equality and god forbid, democracy.
Call me crazy- but this Virus provides great cover as to why the economy plummets, the
Murikan sheeple will eat it up. Prepare for the double media blitz on the virus AND the
economy tanking as its result.
Don't forget the Russians.. They have to be to blame. See they just kept the price of oil low
so now the rest of the world gets gas cheaper than the USA. The USA motorist now has to bail
out the dopey frackers and shale oil ponzis.
Global envy will eat murica. Maybe they will just pull out all their troops and go home.
;)
A hitherto unknown cause of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak [1–3] is reported
here – a bacteria from the Prevotella genus.
The number of Wuhan coronavirus deaths in mainland China has overtaken the SARS
epidemic in the country. The high mortality is being caused by targeting only the virus
(which is also present).
This is a two pronged attack, as previously noted in 'infection with human
coronavirus NL63 enhances streptococcal adherence to epithelial cells' [6]. Prevotella is
a well known pathogen, and can induce 'Severe Bacteremic Pneumococcal Pneumonia in Mice
with Upregulated Platelet-Activating Factor Receptor Expression' [7].
The RNA-seq data from Wuhan, China (PRJNA603194) has millions of reads of
Prevotella proteins, and a few thousands from 2019-nCoV (Table 1).
Similarly, the DNA sequences (PRJNA601630) of 6 patients from the same family in Hong
Kong [3] shows significant presence of this bacteria.
These sequences can be found at SI:China.RNA-seq/SampleSequences.fa(n=480K) and
SI:HongKong/ALLsequences.fa(n=50k).Finally, the expression levels (Table 2) shows that
the elongation factor Tu is the most expressed.
'Elongation factor Tu (Tuf) is a new virulence factor of Streptococcus pneumoniae
that binds human complement factors, aids in immune evasion and host tissue invasion'
[8].
These are the only two studies I could find. Detection of the Prevotella in other
samples will add more credence to this theory.
Detection of the nCoV can be made very specific by looking for a 500bp in the spike
protein [4], which would be a good candidate for vaccine development, protein-inhibition
and diagnosis (which was non-specific for SARS in many cases, including the CDC test
[5]).
Anti-virals need to be supplemented with anti-bacterial agents to treat this
disease.
For retired person taking it serious means self-isolation and restricting external contacts
to minimum. Of course this makes sense only if there are active cases in the community and/or the
state. Otherwise the risk is too low to overreact.
"We're getting a better sense as the days go by" of the scope of the outbreak in the U.S.,
Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on NBC's
"Meet the Press." "Unfortunately, that better sense is not encouraging, because we're seeing
community spread."
"If you're a vulnerable person, take it seriously, because particularly when you have
community spread, you may not know at any given time that there are people who are infected,"
Fauci said of the idea of social distancing, or actions that include avoiding large gatherings.
"It's common-sense stuff."
Gottlieb, who departed as Trump's FDA commissioner in April, said Sunday on CBS's "Face
the Nation" that ... "We'll get through this, but it's going to be a hard period. We're looking
at two months, probably, of difficulty."
"... But there was no massive panic, no second by second media hysteria, over Hong Kong flu. Let me start being unpopular. "Man in his 80's already not very well from previous conditions, dies of flu" is not and should not be a news headline. The coverage is prurient, intrusive, unbalanced and designed to cause hysteria. ..."
"... It is also worthy of comment and I'm sure great relief to parents, that of the thousands of deaths, not one has been below the age of 10. ..."
The Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968/9 was the last really serious flu pandemic to sweep the
UK. They do seem extraordinarily regular – 1919, 1969 and 2020. Flu epidemics have much
better punctuality than the trains (though I cheated a bit there and left out the 1958 "Asian
flu"). Nowadays "Hong Kong flu" is known as H3N2. Estimates for deaths it caused worldwide vary
from 1 to 4 million. In the UK it killed an estimated 80,000 people.
If the current coronavirus had appeared in 1968, it would simply have been called "flu",
probably "Wuhan flu". COVID-19 may not be nowadays classified as such, but in my youth flu is
definitely what we would have called it. The Hong Kong flu was very similar to the current
outbreak in being extremely contagious but with a fairly low mortality rate. 30% of the UK
population is estimated to have been infected in the Hong Kong flu pandemic. The death rate was
about 0.5%, mostly elderly or with underlying health conditions.
But there was no massive panic, no second by second media hysteria, over Hong Kong flu.
Let me start being unpopular. "Man in his 80's already not very well from previous conditions,
dies of flu" is not and should not be a news headline. The coverage is prurient, intrusive,
unbalanced and designed to cause hysteria.
Consider this: 100% of those who contract coronavirus are going to die. 100% of those who do
not contract coronavirus are also going to die. The difference in average life expectancy
between the two groups will prove to be only very marginal. That is because the large majority
of those who die of COVID-19 will already be nearing the end of life or have other health
problems.
... ... ...
What worries me about the current reaction to coronavirus, is that it seems to reflect a
belief that death is an aberration, rather than a part of the natural order of things. As the
human species continues to expand massively in numbers, and as it continues casually to make
other species extinct, it is inevitable that the excessive and crowded human population will
become susceptible to disease.
... ... ...
Yes wash your hands, bin your tissues, keep things clean. Don't hang around someone who has
the flu. Take advantage of everything modern medicine can do to help you. But don't be too
shocked at the idea that some sick people die, especially if they are old. We are not Gods, we
are mortal. We need to reconnect to that idea.
It is also worthy of comment and I'm sure great relief to parents, that of the
thousands of deaths, not one has been below the age of 10.
It is unusually age selective. Whereas in many past epidemics both the elderly and very
young have been the most susceptible groups in this instance, 80% of deaths have been in the
over 60s.
Another excellent article, thank you Craig Murray. Some thoughts
When this story initially broke I was somewhat dismissive of it. I remember avian flu, and
particularly swine flu, when hysteria was purposefully whipped up in order to boost the
profits of big pharma, and of course to keep the population in it's usual state of paralyzed
anxiety. I am not qualified to comment on the suggestions other's have made relating to this
being a bio-weapon, deployed either by accident or design. As far as I can see it's too early
to tell, speculation and rumor abound, the dust has yet to settle.
I agree that it is normal and desirable for old people to die, and while I have no wish to
hasten the death of individuals within any demographic group, it seems that the current
fashion of prolonging the lives of the aged at the expense (financially and environmentally)
of subsequent generations is questionable. Perhaps it is emblematic of the mechanistic,
materialistic, individualistic and narcissistic agenda so aggressively promoted to justify
the consumerism currently infecting the world. I was taught that the debt we owe to our
parents we repay to our children, that is is better to subsist on crusts if it means our
children may have jam. Some would rather eat jam today than leave crusts for their progeny
tomorrow, maybe because as a society we see individual gratification as the meaning of
life
Beautiful thoughts, Craig With respect to the Corona Virus: The Patriot Act had been
prepared prior to the catastrophic event on 9/11 and was ready to be immediately enacted. One
did not see the shape of things to come while the event was unfolding.
... ... ...
Medicine opens new frontiers for exploitation because ill health is a regular earner.
There is nothing left to sell in the capitalist system but business services, Intellectual
Property and 'Apps' perhaps. The Smart Phone market is saturated. The Russians, and other
nations like Iran have still got endless supplies of gas, oil, etc.
With all respect Craig I think you may be wandering into areas you are not qualified to
judge. Mea culpa also, I am not a medic either. But I regularly see very senior medical
experts saying that they are very concerned about this virus and they must have good reason
because these people are clinicians not politicians.
As for the deaths from ordinary flu: how on earth do we know? I have had flu several times
in my life and never bothered notifying my GP. I stayed home, isolated myself, and
self-medicated. I suspect most people are the same. So the mortality of flu is limited to
serious cases which comes to GPs' attention and is therefore an underestimate and more like
0.1% or even 0.01% than the claimed 1% as most people will not report it.
This might put things in perspective:
The Covid-19 . does not compare with seasonal flu, which is not new but harmful no less.
According to the CDC's weekly U.S. flu report of February 22, 2020, "So far this season there
have been at least 32 million flu illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths from
flu."
Worldwide, up to 650,000 individuals die from complications of seasonal flu each year.
Take a moment to think about that. We can compare this number with other causes of death
around the globe, like 470,000 people who lose their lives to homicide and many more who do
to suicide. Nearly 1.35 million individuals die each year as a result of car accidents (an
additional 20 to 50 million suffer injuries) ..
Covid-19 is a viral disease and appears to have a fatality rate of roughly 1 percent or less.
It is dangerous, but it is not so dangerous we should put our lives on hold. Remember, we all
take risks every single day and are exposed to hundreds of potential threats. The goal is to
live our lives while also doing what is necessary to reduce the likelihood of being seriously
harmed (and harming others). Do not increase your anxiety by staying home and constantly
watching the news about the spread of the virus around the globe.
Thanks for a levelled coherent comparison. The hoovering up response of the media is an
obvious news management issue.
... ... ...
There are only two important happenings in all our lives, our birth and our death
everything inbetween is merely filling in time with chaws, multiplying and breathing.
In August '68 I caught H3N2 while stationed in Hong Kong. I was brought unconscious to the
Gurkha military field hospital in Shek Kong and was kept there until my temperature returned
to normal after a week. There was no attempt at quarantine or to trace victims or any follow
up by the authorities. The HK Police and military were too busy dealing with communists and
illegals crossing from China. Hong Kong Flu then spread to Vietnam via US sailors and other
military who used HK for shore leave from the Vietnam War.
So naturally after that experience and being a 24/7 carer I am taking precautions. No not
bulk buying but plenty of hand washing with soap, minimising people contact and trying not to
cough or sneeze near anyone.
Another brilliant post by Craig Murray You survived all that, well even a couple of weeks
ago, queuing to get into jail for Julian Assange's trial. You are quite obviously as tough as
old boots. Even the CIA have given up trying to kill you. The Coronavirus, if you get it is
unlikely to have any effect on you.
Read Linh Dinh's too, check out his photography, and buy his book in Hardback – it
has High Definition photos too "Postcards from the End of America". He was born in Vietnam,
about the same age as Craig Murray, and travels around a lot, mostly by bus.
"Memento Mori – Unpopular Thoughts on Corona Virus" (Corrected by Wikispooks)
Consider this: 100% of those who contract coronavirus are going to die. 100% of those who
do not contract coronavirus are also going to die. The difference in average life expectancy
between the two groups will prove to be only very marginal. That is because the large
majority of those who die of COVID-19 will already be nearing the end of life or have other
health problems.
It is reasonable to be sceptical and phlegmatic (no pun intended), given past pandemics.
The problem with the coronavirus is that:
– we have no partial immunity from previous strains
– it results in a much greater hospitalisation rate and cases take weeks to resolve
– it is explosively more infectious than any flu since the second wave of Spanish flu,
which peaked in three weeks in some places. It has R0 of 3.5 according to latest Chinese
paper.
What that means is that entire healthcare systems will become saturated and people who
might have been expected to live will die from lack of care, not old age. It will be luck of
the draw who lives and diss, unless we agree turn off ventilation on older people in favour
of the young when they have equal survival chances if ventilated . It also means that
noncoronavirus healthcare is overwhelmed and people die indirectly.
With vigorous countermeasures, the peak of infection can be reduced, ideally below
healthcare capacity. 40% peak reduction and 20% mortality reduction was possible in 1918
where implemented. Wuhan measures reduced R0 to 0.3, I.e. Killing transmission in three
serial intervals of infection.
It is a public health and moral imperative not to be fatalistic here, Craig, and your
normal humanism is lacking here.
I for one have not given up, and see plenty of life to experience ahead unlike this bloke.
If it takes me out, at least I can go knowing that I have done everything possible to prevent
it. That will bring comfort. Dying for no good reason does not seem like something good to
dwell on during those last moments. The very fact that this old guy has been able to pen a
coherent and interesting article without the effects of dementia or other old age related
maladies demonstrates that even he has something left to contribute. Although in this case, I
do not agree with his message.
The American CDC rejected the notion of replicating the WHO approved Coronavirus test, in
favour of developing its own test (resulting in a delayed launch date and continued lag in
delivery). The CDC test is being billed at $1,200 (for those lucky enough to have sufficient
insurance). In S. Korea testing is free if a prospective patient is running a temperature. If
the subject is not running a temperature the test is billed at $120 (presumably this is an
approximation of cost price). Some folks in America are going to make a whole pile of money
out of the situation.
Reliable figures for infection and mortality rates should arrive before the Presidential
election. It will be interesting if there is an appreciable differential between mortality
rates in countries where healthcare is allocated according to medical need and countries
where healthcare is allocated according to private insurance cover.
If America does experience heightened mortality rates to other industrialised countries, will
this impact on the outcome of the election? I suspect not.
"The mass hysteria around the current coronavirus is being driven by a societal rejection
of the notion that the human species is part of the wider ecology, and that death and disease
are unavoidable facts, with which it ought to be part of the human condition to come to
terms".
Well Crag that's one theory, buy what about all the other stuff that's going on, reaction
to globalism, extinction, and all the other concerns. This corona virus is a seed falling on
to fertile soil in more ways than one,
The Swerve: How the Renaissance Began or The Swerve: How the World Became Modern: Stephan
Greenblatt tells the story of how Poggio Bracciolini, a 15th-century papal emissary and
obsessive book hunter, saved the last copy of the Roman poet Lucretius's On the Nature of
Things from near-terminal neglect in a German monastery.
I am with you Craig .. Reading Lucretius's On the Nature of Things will set you free!
With all the (politically motivated ?) hype, I had a look at the official mortality
figures for our annual common flu.
Over the last five years the average death rate is 17,000 per year in England, with a high of
28,000 and low of 1,600 !!!
Apparently, we happily live with these large death rates without the "The worlds going to
end" hyperbole. People go about their business, going to work, travelling and all the normal
trappings of daily life.
What is it with this Corona virus tosh ? What's going on, who's benefiting ? Is it part of
the China propaganda ?
Utter madness.
Very sensible – and thoughtful – commentary on the latest flu episode Craig.
Thanks.
Your ruminations on the desire for, and even a belief in, the possibility of achieving
immortality (or at least a very long life) are also timely, as these drive pivotal sections
of the policy making and system creating sectors. Julian Assange has spoken about the belief
– prevalent in Silicon Valley – that a world will soon be created where we can
'upload our brains' to the cloud, and so live on forever in whatever fantasy world
appeals.
In the meantime, we live in bodies increasingly beset by toxic pollutants from chemical
additives in water, BigAg food, polluted air, over prescribed drugs, radiation from our
proliferating cellphones & wifi devices, and by stress generated by our loud, over-lit
environment and mean, abusive work environments / economic system.Despite this, many people
would rather panic over a virus than question the factors making us (and our children and
seniors) so susceptible to such viruses.
I too have a lung condition, and have also experienced several very close brushes with
death due to other factors (such as a recent, brutal home invasion). I also have experienced
the deaths of many of the people close to me – people of all ages, from a range of
factors. I suspect that those experiences make people much less afraid of death, and so much
less likely to share the current panic, or to share the very common illusion that we can live
forever – if we just spend enough on "research" and have enough superfoods, expensive
drugs (and vax).
In my view we would all be better off concentrating on making our lives MEAN something
while we have them (as Julian has done) than on obsessing over the latest media-driven
"threat to security" propaganda – be that about a virus or something else.
This is a vey well written and thought provoking opinion piece. However, in this case, I
do believ death and getting in infected, are both avoidable. And because few humans chose to
be irresponsible with their choices, we now have a pandemic. People all around the world are
on edge. Its not ok that millions of people died in the past pandemics, and if there was
enough information back then, those numbers would have been small. Young parents with little
children ear death a lot more than older parents, for obvious reasons. So, it's great if one
doesn't buy into the hysteria, but it's the opposite if such a person becomes the cause for
say, spreading the virus in a school!
"chose to be irresponsible with their choices, we now have a pandemic."
And:
"great if one doesn't buy into the hysteria, but it's the opposite if such a person becomes
the cause for say, spreading the virus"
Rely on newspaper, radio and TV warnings; buy into the hysteria; buy masks, wear them at
all times in public, wash hands when entering the shops to buy your food, use cards not cash
to pay, remain indoors until told otherwise, etc. OR ELSE! – Welcome to the new world
of the 'virus police.'
Thank you Craig, for being a voice of reason. I was just asking if this was any worse than
other flu epidemic or if, for some reason, it was being made to seem so. I've also been
wondering why they gave it another name rather than "flu". Is it just to make it sound more
"scary" because most people don't understand that flu is more than just a bad cold? As far as
I know I am healthy and have very little to fear from this latest flu. I do look after a
relative with COPD and I'm concerned for him – in the same way that I'm concerned for
him every winter as I know flu could kill him. The hysteria is driving me up the wall so it's
good to see that some are remaining calm. The best of health to you, sir.
I sincerely hope the virus outbreak isn't as dire as predicted, but like you, peccavi,
peccabo, *as we see the catastrophic effects of human beings on the environment, including on
other species and the climate*, it makes one wonder if it really is a catastrophe if
predictions are accurate or underestimated..
Nature's schadenfreude – our comeuppance. If it were to be a natural evolutionary
pathogen – but even if proves the stuff of nightmares and the deliberate release of an
engineered virus – would it be a "bad thing" if 99% of humanity was culled?
This feels like the final scenes in "On the Beach" with Gregory Peck. At least they still
had loo paper at the end
We in the Western imperialist nations don't like the idea of death but have no qualms
about delivering death and disease to weaker nations we sanction, bomb, invade, occupy
especially when modern warfare means there is very little risk to ourselves. Millions have
died and continue to die across MENA, many of them children in our never ending wars for
resources and geopolitical advantage sold as 'humanitarian intervention.'
The common cold may kill too if the virus finds a suitable host.
Wuhan is a heavily polluted city region. https://www.numbeo.com/pollution/in/Wuhan
Respiratory complications caused by that environment may be significant.
Have you been to Delhi? Try it! Not pleasant even for those who consider themselves young and
healthy.
I know what i'm talking about, doubt you do.
The point is, that until it IS confirmed, it could be anything: pollution, lung infection,
'regular flu'.. well anything, but the media plaster it all over the world as if it HAS been
confirmed. This surely, is irresponsible.
"Air pollution is a huge problem in Italy. A report in 2018 showed that air quality levels
were a red alert for Italy. Way back in early 2011, officials reported that pollution in
Italy was reaching crisis levels. What's particularly troublesome is particle pollution that
pervades Italy, and accounts for breathing and heart problems, causing a whopping 9% of
deaths of Italians over the age of 30.
"When you visit Italy, you will see why there is so much smog and fog: heavy traffic in
tiny areas. Officials sometimes order drivers to leave the car at home on alternate days to
avoid too much pollution in the air.
"In Northern Italy, including big cities like Milan and Turin, has some of the worst
pollution in all of Europe. In December 2017, both cities introduced traffic restrictions to
try and reduce the impact of smog and air pollution".
"... Without duplicating your detailed survey, here in the US the news has become "all coronavirus all the time", although of course the political equivalent of the professional-wrestling elimination tour, aka the 2020 presidential campaign, is still featured when hysteria permits. ..."
"... I appreciate that much of the news coverage is presented as altruistic public service. In the US, local mass-media "news" venues thickly lay on this altruistic, parental mode; there is considerable "news you, the consumer, can use" creep. Thus, one sees articles such as "Ten Tips for Not Touching Your Face", or even "How to make your own 'hand sanitizer' at home"– the latter because panic buying have exhausted the supply of manufactured hand sanitizers. ..."
"... Over 3400 Americans died (out of > 27,000 hospitalized from >115,000 cases) in the 2009 flu outbreak that began in Mexico/Texas. I do not remember the same level of hysteria and opprobium heaped on the US as the western MSM has heaped on China. ..."
The coverage is prurient, intrusive, unbalanced and designed to cause hysteria.
Just so. Thanks for this eminently sane perspective.
Without duplicating your detailed survey, here in the US the news has become "all
coronavirus all the time", although of course the political equivalent of the
professional-wrestling elimination tour, aka the 2020 presidential campaign, is still
featured when hysteria permits.
I've even gotten unsolicited e-mails from healthcare providers touting their responses to
the ostensible crisis. I don't know what the responses are, because I haven't read them and
feel no compelling need to do so. I realize that Normals, as I call them, are
distressed and panicky, and may cling to such dross as if they are life preservers.
I appreciate that much of the news coverage is presented as altruistic public service. In
the US, local mass-media "news" venues thickly lay on this altruistic, parental mode; there
is considerable "news you, the consumer, can use" creep. Thus, one sees articles such as "Ten
Tips for Not Touching Your Face", or even "How to make your own 'hand sanitizer' at
home"– the latter because panic buying have exhausted the supply of manufactured hand
sanitizers.
Perhaps the would-be "cure" isn't really worse than the disease, but as you note the
mass-media publicity is pernicious and debilitating. Thanks again.
Over 3400 Americans died (out of > 27,000 hospitalized from >115,000 cases) in the
2009 flu outbreak that began in Mexico/Texas. I do not remember the same level of hysteria
and opprobium heaped on the US as the western MSM has heaped on China.
Every year (with infrequent exceptions) over 20 million people catch flu in the USA alone.
That's more than 1,000 times the number of Coronavirus cases worldwide so far.
Every year (with infrequent exceptions), over 20,000 people die from flu in the USA alone.
That's 60 times the number of deaths from Coronavirus worldwide so far.
The hysteria over this is absolutely ridiculous. My son is worried about it but what can
you do? The laughable 'advice' we're getting makes no sense to him. We live in France where
kissing on the cheek and shaking hands is their default setting and yet, the 'advice' is not
to do that. It simply can't be avoided here plus he goes to school, so he's mixing with
crowds, something else which we're advised not to do so despite my attempts at reassurance,
is it any wonder he's up to 90 about it? I suspect this is the same as the majority of the
population just now too. It's shameful behaviour from the media and health 'experts'. They're
actively inducing panic rather than calming things down.
On a more personal note, what I dislike is that I'm being dragged into a situation about
which I'm deeply skeptical and can't take the hysteria seriously. My family need food, same
as everyone else but what about all these people panic buying and stocking up on food?
What can you do? If all these people are panic buying and stocking up on food, then there's
going to be nothing left for us to buy normally, so we might struggle for food. I object to
the fact that we're being dragged into even considering buying and stocking up too, even
though we don't want to, but we might have to.
I could go on but to spare any readers patience I won't, except to say that the whole
thing is ridiculous. It'll all be forgotten about by the time summer arrives.
Northern Italy under lockdown - Lombardy region (entire region, all provinces)
- Piedmont (provinces of Alessandria , Asti , Novara , Verbano Cusio Ossola , and Vercelli
)
- Veneto (provinces of Padua , Treviso , and Venice)
- Emilia Romagna (provinces of Modena , Parma , Piacenza , Reggio Emilia , and Rimini )
- Marche (province of Pesaro Urbino ) In the above areas:
Travel in and out of the area, as well as within the area, will only be possible in
response to "duly verified professional requirements, emergency situations, or for health
reasons"
People with symptoms of respiratory disease and fever of 37.5 Celsius or above are
strongly encouraged to stay at home and limit social contact as much as possible, and contact
their doctor
Avoid gathering
All schools and universities must be closed
All museums and places of culture will be closed
All cultural, religious or festive events are suspended
Cinemas, pubs, theaters, dance schools, game rooms, casinos, nightclubs and other similar
places shall remain closed
All sporting events and competitions are suspended
Ski resorts are closed until further notice
Swimming pools, sports halls, thermal baths, cultural centers and wellness centers must
suspend their activities
Bars and restaurants can remain open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. provided they respect the
safety distance of at least 1 meter between customers - this provision also concerns other
commercial activities
Shopping centers and department stores must remain closed on public holidays and the days
preceding them
Places of worship remain open, provided that the safety distance of at least 1 meter is
respected, but religious ceremonies (marriage, baptism) are prohibited until further
notice
National restrictions
As in the north of the country, cinemas, theaters, museums, pubs, game rooms, dance
schools, discos and other similar places will be closed
Sports competitions are suspended with some exceptions
Snip:
The average age of deceased and positive patients in Covid-2019 is 81 years, mostly men.
They, in more than two thirds of cases, have three or more pre-existing pathologies.
This was confirmed by an analysis conducted by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità on 105
Italian patients who died up to 4 March.
...
The average age of the patients examined is 81 years, about 20 years higher than that of the
patients who contracted the infection. There are 28 women (26.7%).
According to ISS data, 42.2% of the deaths are in the age group between 80 and 89 years.
32.4% were between 70 and 79, while 8.4% between 60 and 69, 2.8% between 50 and 59 and 14.1%
over 90 years.
end Snip:
With luck Congress will be cleaned out of old world thinking, and replaced with new world
thinking, (alas, same as old world thinking as it is controlled by the same thought group.
One lives in hope of change for the better.
Another thought has just come to me. The age of the Media Barons all seem to be in the high
to highest end of the fatality spectrum. Wonder if it is a coincidence we are having such a
panic media attack, free on facts yet huge on speculation and shunting blame to all and
sundry. Just a thought
Could it be ncov19 is no worse than the common cold, and what we are experiencing is the
power of the media as it follows the order to create a world wide panic designed to prop up
calls for a 1 world government. Deaths recorded are in the 80+ age range with at least 3
pre-existing conditions. The public can't get enough of this soap opera.
Raw figures for Italy and Iran at 14.00 GMT Friday Mar 6
Italy Infected 4636 Deaths 197 Recovered 523
Iran Infected 4747 Deaths 124 Recovered 913
Remember Iran is under very strict Sanctions from USA et al. not helping their situation.
Death rate is mostly those over 50 ramping up each decade over the 60 mark. (This get s rid
of old farts like me easier and faster :-) ) As for Israel, take that with a pinch of salt
they love to brag. I am not denying we live with truly evil people pulling strings for
profit. Cheers
....On Tuesday, the WHO noted that the global death rate for the novel coronavirus based
on the latest figures was 3.4% -- higher than earlier figures of about 2%. The WHO's
director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said the new coronavirus was "a unique virus
with unique characteristics.".....
....In the low-severity model -- or best-case scenario of the seven -- ANU researchers
estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15
million.....
The 3.4% 'mortality rate' is simply the raw number: # of deaths / # of confirmed
coronavirus cases. It's NOT comparable to the mortality
rate for the common flu, which has long been established as .1%.
The experts in your link
(see below) state that the rate will go down as more people are tested.
As far as I know,
only China and perhaps South Korea now have reliable figures on how many have been infected
with the virus. For example, the U.S. and Japan have been a tragic embarrassment when it
comes to actually testing people.
Business Insider:
The death rate is likely to change further as more cases are confirmed, though experts
predict that the percentage of deaths will decrease in the longer term since milder cases of
COVID-19 are probably going undiagnosed.
"There's another whole cohort that is either asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic,"
Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases,
said at a briefing last month. "We're going to see a diminution in the overall death
rate."
I saw a posting on Propublica that made an important point: death rates are skewed early
during an outbreak because deaths are solid markers (numerator) but number of infected known
is certainly a subset of actual people who have the disease - particularly when testing isn't
available and common.
Also, early during an outbreak, the known infected tend to be those that have serious cases
such that they end up in the hospital - so that also skews numbers.
If there is a significant number of symptomless infections the real (death rate) number
will be even lower.
That's the point. As long as not a significant number of all people in a certain area are
tested, regardless of whether they show symptoms or not, no one can tell the real death rate.
No one knows the number of symptomfree infectants.
Biden and Sanders are both campaigning actively and meeting voters in many different states.
Plenty of hugs/handshakes. I am wondering what precautions they have taken against the
coronavirus. Note they are both in their late 70's.
... As the Hubei cases have fallen from 2000+ per day to 1 or 2 hundred they have had
capacity to widen their testing to contacts and very mild suspect cases. Sadly they are not
seeing the hoped for asymptomatic population. Serology tests will give a more accurate
answer, and are underway, but are not performed until a month or more post infection to allow
time for antibody build up.
According to this professional paper by Chinese researchers, there could be also
neuroinvasion by SARS-COV-2, with some patients showing headache, nausea, and vomiting, in
absence of other observed symptoms..but in the end deriving in inhability to breath
spontaneusly...
Masks seem to be in fact an effective way to protect against the entry of the virus via
intranasal through the CNS..
..
Also it seems that the use of corticosteroids that would be beneficial for classical lung
edema, and are of common use at ICUs, would accelerate the replication of the virus in the
neural tissue...leading to breath failure... by failure of brain functions...What it is still
unknown is how the virus reach the neural tissue...
Some interesting excerpts:
...In light of the high similarity between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV2, it is quite likely that
the potential neuroinvason of SARS-CoV-2 plays an important role in the acute respiratory
failure of COVID-19 patients. According to the complaints of a survivor, the medical
graduate student (24 years old) from Wuhan University, she must stay awake and breathe
consciously and actively during the intensive care. She said that if she fell asleep, she
might die because she had lost her natural breath.
...The exact route by which SARS-CoV or MERS-COV enters the CNS is still not reported.
However, hematogenous or lymphatic route seems impossible, especially in the early stage of
infection, since almost no virus particle was detected in the non-neuronal cells in the
infected brain areas.
...Of interest, viral antigens have been detected in the brainstem, where the infected
regions included the nucleus of the solitary tract and nucleus ambiguus. The nucleus of the
solitary tract receives sensory information from the mechano- and chemoreceptors in the
lung and respiratory tracts 40-42, while the efferent fibers from the nucleus ambiguus and
the nucleus of the solitary tract provide innervation to airway smooth muscle, glands, and
blood vessels. Such neuroanatomic interconnections indicate that the death of infected
animals or patients may be due to the dysfunction of the cardiorespiratory center in the
brainstem.
...Based on an e pidemiological survey on COVID-19, the median time from the first
symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to the intensive
care was 8.0 days. Therefore, the latency period is enough for the virus to enter and
destroy the medullary neurons. As a matter of fact, it has been reported that some
patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 did show neurologic signs such as headache (about 8%),
nausea and vomiting (1%).
.... If the neuroinvasion of SARS-CoV-2 does take a part in the development of
respiratory failure in COVID-19 patients, the precaution with masks will absolutely be the
most effective measure to protect against the possible entry of the virus into the CNS.
It may also be expected that the symptoms of the patients infected via facal-oral or
conjunctival route will be lighter than those infected intranasally.
.... It is also urgent to find effective antiviral drugs that can cross the blood-brain
barrier. Moreover, corticosteroids, which are used frequently for severe patients, may
have no treatment effect, but rather accelerate the replication of the virus within the
neurons. Since SARS-CoV2 may conceal itself in the neurons from the immune recognition,
complete clearance of the virus may not be guaranteed even the patients have recovered from
the acute infection.
In support of this, there is evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is still detectable in some
patients during the convalescent period 43. Therefore, given the probable neuroinvasion the
risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection may be currently underestimated.
Thus, it seems that, in the end, behaves like a neuro-chemical agent, isn´t it...?
Too much for a simple flu...and pangolins´ stories... What the hell is happening
here?
A Jewish lawyer in New York City and nine members of his family have tested positive for SARS
CoV-2. His family is prominent and may have infected people at a large Bar Mitzva, a Jewish
university, a place of worship, and commuters on the subway to and from his law office.
Many of these exposed Jews attended the recent 2020 AIPAC jamboree. About 70% of the US
Congress also attended this AIPAC mass event, potentially making Washington DC a super
spreader locale. AIPAC issued a warning to all attendees to self quarantine. The state of
Israel has imposed mandatory quarantines for all returning attendees of the AIPAC conference.
Israel is mirroring the aggressive steps that China is taking to quell the epidemic as
currently 100,000 Israeli citizens are under quarantine.
https://www.trunews.com/stream/aipac-super-spreader-did-israeli-lobbyists-infect-u-s-congress-with-coronavirus
Failure to impose quarantines will likely result in to proliferation of the "L" form of
the "C" haplotype of SARS CoV-2. Countries where government medical officials must clear
their statements with uninformed political hacks face a more pronounced impact from this
outbreak. The proper approach is for politicians to have to clear their blather with health
professionals
In California, where thousands are being monitored for the virus, only 516 tests had been
conducted by the state as of Thursday. Washington health officials have more cases than
they can currently process. And in New York, where cases have quadrupled this week, a New
York City official pleaded for more test kits from the C.D.C.
"The slow federal action on this matter has impeded our ability to beat back this
epidemic," the official said in a letter Friday.
California already has 300 confirmed cases, with 14 deaths. And they've just managed to
test 516 people. That's a 58% rate of infection.
So, which numbers are you willing to trust more, barflies? China's or USA's (or the rest
of the west)?
Everybody and his mother knows from at least two and half months ago, that seeing the news
from China (so many millions people quarantined) that this disease will be an epidemic, and
for sure it will hit USA, and now we learn the CDC and the Trump administration have only few
thousands tests available and they are convinced they are managing the situation very well...
Well we are going to see a good experiment: the result of the private health care system
scam in front of a dangerous pandemic, it will be a Darwinian experiment we can call "The
Survival of the Richest".
For sure we will never know the number of cases and fatalities for Corona in the USA,
because they won´t allow to make a significant number of tests, but in two years we
will see how the life expectancy in USA will be compare with the others developed countries
with socialize health care
As for the virus, there are five strains, we now know (or rather, we have so far
determined). China's strain is different from Korea's and different again from Iran's.
Interestingly, Iran's shows the greatest lethal nature. And yet the numbers shown up-thread
@64, if correct, suggest a greater ability of Iran to neutralize the mortality of the virus
than of Italy, which has one of the lesser strains.
Interestingly also, as karlof1 alludes to above, the virus having five identified strains
so far leads us to the most basic logic in virology, which is to ask, where did these strains
mutate from? Where is "patient zero"? And the only country so far with all five strains
identified as present is the United States.
Usually the US has about 55,000 deaths from flu each year. Last year it had 80,000 deaths.
One wonders how much of that was undiagnosed Covid-19.
One wonders how much of that came from Fort Detrick.
I could link and document all this but I have been unable to read all the threads here
lately so I must assume the readership is au fait with the latest evidence on these
virus matters.
Usually the US has about 55,000 deaths from flu each year.
"In recent years, flu-related deaths have ranged from about 12000 to -- in the worst year
-- 56000, according to the CDC."
(2018 had even more)
The reason for this wide variation: Deaths peak when the H3N2 strain of influenza A
dominates. When it's H1N1 or influenza B, the toll is quite a bit lower. Scientists can guess
which strain may predominate in a given year, but it's only a guess. That's why the flu
vaccine doesn't work in some years. But it usually does.
You can see that the Fatality Rate is 4,25%, higher than in China and globally, but YOU
HAVE ONLY 11,3% OF PEOPLE RECOVERED , that means you do not have an outcome yet for the
rest.
If you consider the ratio deaths compare with the cases that have an outcome (recovered +
dead), we have a fatality rate of 27,36%, in the case of China is 6% (but this could be
false).
When we now analyze the fatality rate of the 1918 Spanish Flu we analyze with all the
people or recovered or dead, all have an outcome, and that is the only way to know the REAL
fatality rate of an epidemic.
So I do not know the total fatality ratio of this epidemic, but seems is quite high, and
it seems it affects the white people (in North Italy) in similar ways as in Asia.
This is NOT a "normal flu", and this virus has many new and fantastic features, it affects
strongly the CNS (Central Nervous System):
My methodology (and I was one of the commenters who got it right from the beginning) was
very simple: I assumed the CCP is honest about this epidemic and really has the welfare of
its own people in mind; I assumed the CCP has the means to contain this epidemic to the best
of today's technology and; I assumed China's numbers are the holotype because of those two
previous reasons.
So, taking China's numbers as the true numbers, we can easily come to the conclusion the
numbers in the the rest of the world are clearly underreported - both in infected rates and
death rates.
I never trusted the opinion of those western famous infectologists/virologists for one
simple reason: they came up with a conclusive diagnosis with almost no data in hands. They
all made absurd extrapolations from the numbers that came out from the Chinese media. There's
a reason many countries forbid medical consults from distance (telephone or internet):
medicine is an art that requires eye-to-eye contact between doctor and patient. It is heavily
reliant on lots and lots of empirical evidence. It is more an art than a science: a doctor
must always assume every patient is unique, and apply statistics to this unique case. To put
it simply, doctors are not good theoreticians.
That's also why any study that is not coming out of China or is not using Chinese papers,
or was not written in direct collaboration with the Chinese on COVID-19 is useless right
now.
Virology is a very complex and test-heavy science: even basic comprehension over a common
virus takes decades and hundreds of doctors to produce.
Those bombastic articles and papers coming out from outside China must be treated mainly
as Western propaganda - and I'm not necessarily blaming the doctors involved for this, it may
be a case where the journalist induced the doctor and distorted what he/she said.
Our China bashing (which flew in the face of scientific advice) may come back to haunt us.
It appears that, since the 2009 outbreak of Swine Flu (300,000 dead) we've gotten much
better at tracing viral outbreaks to patient zero. We're even going back and revising our
understanding of past epidemics. The first cases of H1N1 swine flu were reported in
California and Texas in late March, 2009 but subsequent genetic analysis suggests that it may
have started circulating in humans in January*.
Just so, China's top respiratory specialist, Zhong Nanshan said, "Though the COVID-19 was
first discovered in China, it does not mean that it originated from China.
To me, that means China has cracked the case. They're pretty damn sure that it had a
foreign origin. Japanese journalists think so, too. Asahi TV reported that some of the 14,000
Americans who have died of influenza in the past 120 days may have unwittingly contracted the
coronavirus went viral on Chinese social media and that the US government may have failed to
grasp how rampant the virus is in the US.
Then Taiwanese** TV presented flow charts suggesting the coronavirus originated in the US.
Apparently, when viruses mutate they do so linearly and researchers can tell the order in
which mutations occur and where they are detected.
Says Larry Romanoff, "One of his main points is that the type infecting Taiwan exists only
in Australia and the US and, since Taiwan was not infected by Australians, the infection in
Taiwan could have come only from the US. The basic logic is that the geographical location
with the greatest diversity of virus strains must be the original source because a single
strain cannot emerge from nothing. He demonstrated that only the US has all the five known
strains of the virus (while Wuhan and most of China have only one, as do Taiwan and South
Korea, Thailand and Vietnam, Singapore, and England, Belgium and Germany), constituting a
thesis that the haplotypes in other nations may have originated in the US."
This stoked speculation in China that the coronavirus may have originated in the US. The
PRC, which normally clamps down on such speculation, instead told citizens, "Discuss the
matter rationally."
The People's Daily lent its considerable weight by publishing a SinaWeibo post, "Perhaps
the US [military] delegates brought the coronavirus to Wuhan in October, and some mutation
occurred to the virus, making it more deadly and contagious, and causing a widespread
outbreak this year." (February 23)
Shen Yi, professor of international relations at Fudan University, noted that global
virologists and intelligence agencies are working to track the origin of the virus, "The
symptoms and the contagiosity of the COVID-19 are evident to all. It is impossible to conceal
the origins of the disease," Shen said, urging the public to seek truth from facts.
more scapegoating. The WSJ blames the virus and effects on global economy on the Chinese
government. (prep regime-change music)
Wall Street Journal:
How It All Started: China's Early Coronavirus Missteps
China's errors, dating back to the very first patients, were compounded by political
leaders who dragged their feet to inform the public of the risks and to take decisive
control measures. The result is an epidemic that has gripped the global economy.
No China Bashing? Really. See my link @ 6. The slants by AP and Reuters dutifully repeated
by their subscribers. And a reminder; Zerohedge lost its Twitter account.
Only today, once again, the Globaltimes, CN editorial asks, "Show us some compassion."
Grab this: Fox host hits new low on politicizing disease LINK
Fox News host Jesse Watters blatantly asked the Chinese for "a formal apology" because
"this coronavirus originated in China." His cohost asked, "What if the outbreak had started
here [the US]?" Watters asserted that the epidemic started in China. He even stated in his
show, "They are very hungry people. The Chinese communist government cannot feed the
people, and they are desperate. This food is uncooked. It's unsafe, and that is why
scientists believe that's where it originated." These remarks make him look like a
hooligan.
The Communist Party of China "cannot feed the people" so that Chinese have no choice but
to eat "raw bats and snakes." Is this how a popular American host sees China? Watters'
complete and utter nonsense on the TV show makes people wonder how distorted US public
opinion is against China. It seems that if one scolds China, he does not need to beat his
brains or use common sense at all; he can talk as tough as he wants of China without being
held accountable.
Imagine that a Chinese host demanded a formal apology from the US people on a TV show
after the 2009 H1N1 flu spread to the world from the US, or after AIDS, a disease
reportedly first tracked in North America, became a global epidemic. Let alone how the US
and the international community would respond, could the Chinese public accept his
performance? [.]
Its a big money grab. Billions and billions have already been handed out. Big Pharma
stands to make a killing with a new vaccine down the road.
H1N1 fizzled out. Came nowhere near the doomsday predictions. As did SARS, MERS, Zika,
Ebola which led to billions and billion spent on research not just for vaccines but to modify
these viruses to be more deadly in order to understand them so as to make better vaccines.
You can see the danger, those who create these viruses , or tests confirming them, stand to
benefit from them
Lets take a closer look at H1N1. In July 2009 the WHO Director General predicted that: "as
many as 2 billion people could become infected over the next two years -- nearly one-third of
the world population." It was a multibillion bonanza for Big Pharma. Margaret Chan reported
"Vaccine makers could produce 4.9 billion pandemic flu shots per year in the best-case
scenario"
The media went into high gear . Obama jumps on board saying
"Swine flu could strike up to 40 percent of Americans over the next two years and as many as
several hundred thousand could die if a vaccine campaign and other measures aren't
successful." The U.S. expected to have 160 million doses of swine flu vaccine available
sometime in October"
Some of the tricks used will probably be repeated. In 2009 on July 24, following the WHO
decision to shift from quantitative to qualitative assessments and not to require governments
to ascertain the data through lab testing, the CDC announced that it had discontinued the
process of data collection by testing . From April 15, 2009 to July 24, 2009, states reported
a total of 43,771 confirmed and probable cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection. Of
these cases reported, 5,011 people were hospitalized and 302 people died. During this period
7,500 people per day from all causes died. In a regular flu season over 30,000 die from flu
(CDC model estimates). On July 24, 2009, confirmed and probable case counts were
discontinued. CDC announced that it had developed a model "to to determine the true number of
novel H1N1 flu cases in the United States".
To counter the underwhelming numbers obtained by testing. CDC claimed that the data sent
to them by the states was "underestimated". Its new model then hiked up these figures of
"unconfirmed" cases, many of which are cases of seasonal influenza and then pronounced more
than one million people became ill with novel H1N1 flu between April and June 2009 in the
United States. The model was then used to predict the spread of swine flu and to justify a
national health emergency. "
This is a process of statistical manipulation (fraud), and no doubt we are seeing some of
that now and will no doubt see a replay of 2009.
As we know now, the pandemic never happened. Millions of doses of swine flu vaccine had
been ordered by national governments from Big Pharma. Millions of vaccine doses were
subsequently destroyed. Lots of profits made though. For those who did get shots there were
many adverse effects which were underreported, but Big Pharma has no liability for
vaccines.
Back to the present. Fortunately they are smart enough not to unleash anything too deadly.
After all,the elites dont want to get sick and are smart enough not to trust rushed to market
vaccines. Something that accelerates the demise of rapidly aging populations is just the
thing. Death rates in the under 50 crowd are only 0.3% and that is likely overstated by a
factor of 10 since most mild cases are not tested. In the elderly and sick, we see rates in
the double digits, similar to ordinary flu
The US and China have 7500 and 25000 deaths per day, for COVID-19 in 3 months there are
fewer than 3000 deaths. Yet its panic. You ask me there is a dumb virus going around and its
been around for at least 40 years. Picking up steam though.
"... If what my brother died of was the novel coronavirus, as I now strongly suspect, that means it was already spreading on Manhattan in late December. ..."
Larry Romanoff's latest article, whose footnotes I have not yet checked, is perhaps the
most interesting of all, in that it points to a US coverup of a domestic outbreak prior to
China's
Well, I just lightly skimmed through the piece, but the notion that the US itself had a
major Coronavirus outbreak back in 2019 seems pretty implausible to me.
By all accounts, the virus is extremely contagious. So any such American outbreak would
surely have resulted in many hundreds of thousands if not millions of cases. Enough people,
at least the elderly, would have become gravely ill or died that we would have noticed
it.
@Ron Unz A brother of mine aged 84 died of pneumonia on or about Feb. 10 in New Jersey.
From what I heard about his condition and medical developments, it sure sounded like what we
later learned about Wuhan coronavirus. He had been being treated for cancer for 14 years, so
his immune system was severely compromised.
Shortly before Christmas, he went to Sloan Kettering in Manhattan for consultations, and a
few days later he collapsed and had to be sent to a hospital. He never really recovered and
weeks later died. His fortyish son, who had spent a lot of time with him in hospital, came
down with a severe cold that incapacitated him for a week.
If what my brother died of was the novel coronavirus, as I now strongly suspect, that
means it was already spreading on Manhattan in late December.
My best friends brother is a physician working in the midwest town in which I live. I asked
him about all of these stories of people stealing things like hand sanitizer from clinics and
he said nothing is any different from what it was 2-3 months month ago. Maybe this is a bad
thing, but It seems that outside of the few areas right now that we are reading about in the
media, most people in this country are treating it like Baton Rouge or the city in which I
live. People in general just are not that worked up by it. I work in an urban school district
in medium size, midwestern city and so far other than a general notice to wash our hands and
not touch our face, nothing has been even talked about in regards to handling a massive
outbreak. Again, in hind sight this could be a huge mistake, but until people see this
touching places across the heartland and reaching into every corner of society it looks like
they will assume its a mostly big city, densely populated area problem. Of course if it
reaches these places it will be too late to do anything, but I guess that is how these things
always work.
I live in Houston and cannot find a single bottle of hand sanitizer or Clorox wipes on a
store shelf. I have been to grocery stores, Walmart, Target, dollar stores, office supply
stores, Home Depot, drug stores. Everyone is out and nobody who works there has any idea
when their stock will be replenished. Meanwhile prices for the stuff on Amazon have spiked
into the hundreds of dollars.
Funny, I thought conservatives told us that empty shelves and sky-high black market
prices only happen when socialists are in charge.
"They said they would not test me because if I were wearing the recommended protective
equipment, then I wouldn't have the coronavirus."
The CDC is blaming human error - BASED ON CDC GUIDELINES - for the contraction of the
virus? Or is it more like the novel Catch 22 - if you were too mentally unwell to
fly then you were excused from missions, but if you said you were too unwell to fly then
you were clearly well enough to assess your mental health.
Some of my darker thoughts on CV have noted that if this spreads through the country,
Social Security and pension funds will be able to relax, homes will come on the market and
prices will go down, and we could even be looking at generational political turnover.
I'm not wishing for it in the slightest, but the potential is there.
The first human trials of a coronavirus vaccine are expected
to begin next month at a university in London and pharmaceutical company in
the US.
Scientists at Imperial College in the English capital have been trialling their attempt at a
vaccine on animals since mid-February.
And they could move onto human trials – the last phase of development before a drug
can be used – as soon as April.
Meanwhile, US pharmaceutical companies Moderna and Inovio have also said they plan to start
their own human trials next month.
The coronavirus, which causes a disease called COVID-19 and has infected more than 94,000
people around the world, cannot currently be cured or prevented.
Day 12: I’ve had a relapse. Just as I thought the flu was getting better, it has come back with a vengeance. My breathing is
laboured. Just getting up and going to the bathroom leaves me panting and exhausted. I’m sweating, burning up, dizzy and
shivering. The television is on but I can’t make sense of it. This is a nightmare.
By the afternoon, I feel like I am suffocating. I have never been this ill in my life. I can’t take more than sips of air
and, when I breathe out, my lungs sound like a paper bag being crumpled up. This isn’t right. I need to see a doctor. But if I
call the emergency services, I’ll have to pay for the ambulance call-out myself. That’s going to cost a fortune. I’m ill, but I
don’t think I’m dying — am I?
Surely I can survive a taxi journey. I decide to go to Zhongnan University Hospital because there are plenty of foreign
doctors there, studying. It isn’t rational but, in my feverish state, I want to see a British doctor. My Mandarin is pretty
good, so I have no language problem when I call the taxi. It’s a 20-minute ride. As soon as I get there, a doctor diagnoses
pneumonia. So that’s why my lungs are making that noise. I am sent for a battery of tests lasting six hours.
... ... ...
Day 24: Hallelujah! I think I’m better. Who knew flu could be as horrible as that, though?
Peter Daszak is a zoologist who works in China and runs the EcoHealth Alliance, an
organization that studies the connections between human and wildlife health. So coronaviruses,
like the new one that's spreading right now, are one of his areas of expertise.
... ... ...
Mary Harris: Tens of thousands of people have been diagnosed with this disease worldwide,
with more than 3,000 deaths. Yet there have been few deaths in the U.S. so far. Do we actually
know how many cases are stateside? It's been reported that we're not testing that much, but
that might change soon.
"I would say we are the cause of almost all emerging diseases." -- Peter
Daszak
Peter Daszak: In most outbreaks, you never really know when it begins, what the true
caseload is, what the environment is. All you can see are the people who come to the hospital
and get tested and diagnosed. You don't see people with mild infections, or people who are
pretty sick in poor communities and just don't make it, or people in communities that have
trouble traveling.
When people start rolling out those test kits, we're going to find a lot of cases in the
U.S. and it's going to look like this is spreading out of control. The truth is: It's probably
already been there, probably, and we're now finding that out.
You know how this story goes. First there's the panic, the search for something or someone
to blame. In the case of the novel coronavirus, there was the story that the outbreak got its
start at a local food market in Wuhan. But stories like that can get in the way of the bigger
picture: More and more people are also living and working closer to wildlife. It isn't about
one or two individuals putting people at risk. The risk also comes from clear-cutting
rainforests, remote mining, and even widespread suburbanization.
I would say we are the cause of almost all emerging diseases.
... ... ...
There are over a million viruses like the novel coronavirus out there. You've found 500
different coronaviruses in bats alone, but it took you 10 years to do that work.
We need to do that on this scale so that we discover all the rest of those viruses. We need
many more groups in many more regions doing this work. We then need to get those sequences we
find into the hands of vaccine designers, because what's the point in spending billions of
dollars designing a vaccine to SARS if the virus that emerges this year is 20 percent
different, and the vaccine doesn't work? Let's have vaccines across the whole group. We've
heard about the universal flu vaccine. Let's have a universal coronavirus vaccine. Let's have a
universal Ebola virus vaccine. I think that's common sense.
Creating employment insecurity was the entire point of neoliberal reforms such as
outsourcing, de-skilling and contingent employment. Neoliberal theory had it that desperate
workers work both longer and harder. And they die younger.
We can view "Creepy Joe" and Trump as representatives of "neoliberal plague" The slogan
should be " No Pasaran "
( Dolores Ibárruri's famous battlecry appeal for the defense of the Second Spanish
Republic)
Notable quotes:
"... For those who aren't familiar with Albert Camus' The Plague , disparate lives are brought together during a plague that sweeps through an Algerian city. ..."
"... Through the virus, a new light is being shone on four decades of neoliberal reorganization of political economy. The combination of widespread economic marginalization and a lack of paid time off means that sick and highly contagious workers will have little economic choice but to spread the virus. And the insurance company pricing mechanism intended to dissuade people from overusing health care ('skin in the game') means that only very sick people will 'buy' health care they can't afford. ..."
"... If this last part reads like (Ayn) Randian social theory as interpreted by a budding sociopath in the basement of his dead parent's crumbling tract home, it is basic neoliberal ideology applied to circumstances that we can see playing out in real time. ..."
"... While the American response to the Coronavirus threat seems to be less than robust, there was a near instantaneous response from the Federal Reserve to a 10% decline in stock prices. ..."
"... If priorities seem misplaced, you haven't been paying attention. The statistics on suicides, divorces, drug addiction and self-destructive behavior that result from the loss of employment were understood and widely published by the early 1990s, at the peak of that era's round of mass layoffs. Creating employment insecurity was the entire point of neoliberal reforms such as outsourcing, de-skilling and contingent employment. Neoliberal theory had it that desperate workers work both longer and harder. And they die younger. ..."
"... But how likely is it that people will 'demand' too much healthcare? The starting position of Obamacare was that the American healthcare system provided half the benefit at twice the price of comparable systems. ..."
"... Milton Friedman, one of the founders of neoliberalism through the Mont Pelerin Society, produced a long career's worth of half-baked garbage economics. On the rare occasions when he wasn't helping Chilean fascists toss students out of airplanes in flight, he was pawning his infantile theories off on future Chamber of Commerce and ALEC predators. His positivism was already known to be a farce when he took it up. Here is a primer that explains why it is, and always will be, a farce. ..."
For those who aren't familiar with Albert Camus' The Plague ,
disparate lives are brought together during a plague that sweeps through an Algerian city.
Today, by way of the emergence of a lethal and highly communicable virus (Coronavirus), we --
the people of the West, have an opportunity to reconsider what we mean to one another. The
existential lesson is that through dread and angst we can choose to live, with the
responsibilities that the choice entails, or just fade away.
Through the virus, a new light is being shone on four decades of neoliberal
reorganization of political economy. The combination of widespread economic marginalization and
a lack of paid time off means that sick and highly contagious workers will have little economic
choice but to spread the virus. And the insurance company pricing mechanism intended to
dissuade people from overusing health care ('skin in the game') means that only very sick
people will 'buy' health care they can't afford.
Market provision of virus test kits, vaccines and basic sanitary aids will, in the absence
of government coercion, follow the monopolist's model of under-provision at prices that are
unaffordable for most people. The most fiscally responsible route, in the sense of assuring
that the rich don't pay taxes, is to let those who can't afford health care die. If this means
that tens of millions of people die unnecessarily, markets are a harsh taskmaster. (
3.4% mortality rate @
2X – 3X the contagion rate of the Spanish Flu @ 4 X 1918 population).
If this last part reads like (Ayn) Randian social theory as interpreted by a budding
sociopath in the basement of his dead parent's crumbling tract home, it is basic neoliberal
ideology applied to circumstances that we can see playing out in real time. According to
Ryan Grim of The Intercept, Bill Clinton eliminated the ' reasonable
pricing ' requirement for drugs made by companies that receive government funding. This has
bearing on both commercially developed Coronavirus test kits and vaccines.
Leaving aside technical difficulties that either will or won't be resolved, how would any
substantial portion of the 80% of the population that lives hand-to-mouth be effectively
quarantined when losing an income creates a cascade effect of evictions, foreclosures,
starvation, repossessions, shut-off utilities, etc.? The current system conceived and organized
to make desperate and near desperate workers labor with the minimum of pay and benefits is a
public health disaster by design.
While the American response to the Coronavirus threat seems to be less than robust,
there was a near instantaneous response from the Federal Reserve to a 10% decline in stock
prices. The same Federal Reserve that has been engineering a non-stop rise in stock prices
since Wall Street was bailed out in 2009 knows perfectly well how narrowly stock ownership is
concentrated amongst the rich -- it publishes the data. It quickly lowered the cost of
financial speculation as the cost of Coronavirus tests and a vaccine -- and the question of who
will bear them, remain indeterminate.
If priorities seem misplaced, you haven't been paying attention. The statistics on
suicides, divorces, drug addiction and self-destructive behavior that result from the loss of
employment were understood and widely published by the early 1990s, at the peak of that era's
round of mass layoffs. Creating employment insecurity was the entire point of neoliberal
reforms such as outsourcing, de-skilling and contingent employment. Neoliberal theory had it
that desperate workers work both longer and harder. And they die younger.
The brutality of the logic used by the Obama administration in constructing the ACA,
Obamacare, is worthy of exploration. The premise behind the 'skin in the game' idea is
neoliberalism 101, developed by a founder of neoliberalism, economist Milton Friedman, to
ration health care. The basic idea is that without a price attached to it, people will 'demand'
more health care than they need. That from a public health perspective, oversupplying health
care is better than undersupplying it, is ignored under the premise that public health concerns
are communistic. (Read Friedman).
But how likely is it that people will 'demand' too much healthcare? The starting
position of Obamacare was that the American healthcare system provided half the benefit at
twice the price of comparable systems. Through the 'market' pricing mechanism that
existed, the incentive was for people to avoid purchasing healthcare because it was / is wildly
overpriced. Not considered was that through geographical and specialist 'natural monopolies,'
health care providers had an incentive to undersupply health care by providing high-margin
services to the rich.
Furthermore, why would a healthcare system be considered from the perspective of
individual users? In contrast to the temporal sleight-of-hand where Obamacare 'customers' are
expected to anticipate their illnesses and buy insurance plans that cover them, the entire
premise of health insurance is that illnesses are unpredictable. Isn't the Coronavirus evidence
of this unpredictable nature? And through the nature of pandemics, it is known that some people
will get sick and other people won't. Not known is precisely who will get sick and who
won't.
While there are public health emergency provisions in Obamacare that may or may not be
invoked, why does it make sense in any case to require that people anticipate future illnesses?
Such a program isn't health care and it isn't even health insurance. It is gambling. Guess
right and you live. Guess wrong and you die. Why should we be guessing at all? Prior to
Obamacare, health insurance companies gamed the system with life and death decisions. In true
neoliberal fashion, Obamacare randomized the process as health insurers continue to game the
system.
As I understand it, the public health emergency provision in Obamacare might cover virus
testing and the cost of a vaccine if one is ever found. Great. What about care? How many
readers chose a plan that covers Coronavirus? How many days can you go without a paycheck if
you get sick or are quarantined? Who will take care of your children and for how long? How will
you pay your rent or mortgage? Who will deliver groceries to your house and how will you pay
for them? How will you make the car payment before they repossess it and how will you get to
work without it if you recover?
The rank idiocy -- and the political content, of the frame of individual 'consumers'
overusing health care quickly devolves to the fact that some large portion of the American
people can't afford to go to the doctor when they need to. Even if they can afford the direct
costs, they can't afford the indirect costs. When Obamacare was passed, the U.S. had the worst
health care outcomes among rich countries. Ten years later, the U.S. has the
worst healthcare outcomes among rich countries . And medical bankruptcies are virtually
unchanged since Obamacare was passed.
The reason for focusing on Obamacare is it is the system through which we encounter the
Coronavirus. In the narrow political sense of getting a health care bill passed, Obamacare may
or may not have been 'pragmatic.' In a public health care sense, it is a disaster decades in
the making. The problem wasn't / isn't Mr. Obama per se. It is the radical ideology behind it
that was posed as pragmatism. Mr. Obama's success was to get a bill passed -- a political
accomplishment. It wasn't to create a functioning healthcare system.
The otherworldly nature of neoliberal theory has led to a most brutal of social
philosophies. Mr. Obama later put his energy into lengthening drug company
patents to give drug companies an economic advantage provided by the government. Economist
Dean Baker has made a career out of hammering this general point home. Michael Bloomberg
benefited from government support for both technology and finance. His fortune of $16 billion
in 2009 followed stock prices higher to land him at $64.2 billion in 2020.
Donald Trump inherited a large fortune that likewise followed stock and Manhattan real
estate prices higher. Both he and Mr. Bloomberg could have put their early fortunes into
passive portfolios and received the returns that they claim to be the product of superior
intelligence and hard work. Analytically, if the variability of these fortunes tracks systemic,
rather than personal, factors, then systemic factors explain them. The same is true of most of
the great fortunes of the epoch of finance capitalism that began around 1978.
The point of merging these issues is that they represent flip sides of the neoliberal coin.
In a broad sense, neoliberalism is premised on economic Darwinism, the quasi-religious (it
isn't Darwin) idea that people land where they deserve to land in the social order. This same
idea, that systemic differences in economic outcomes are evidence of systemic causes, applies
here. However, differences in intelligence, initiative and talent don't map to systemic outcomes , meaning that
concentrated wealth isn't a reward for these.
The ignorant brutality of this system appears to be on its way to getting a reality check
through a tiny virus. Unless the Federal government figures this out really fast, most of the
bodies will be carried out of poor and working class neighborhoods like mine. Few here have
health insurance and most health care providers in the area don't take the insurance they do
have. More than a day away from work and many of my neighbors will no longer have jobs.
Evictions are a regular state of affairs in good times. There are no resources to facilitate a
larger-picture response.
Liberalism, of which neoliberalism is a cranky cousin, lives through a patina of pragmatism
until the nukes start flying or a virus hits. Getting healthcare 'consumers' to consider their
market choices follows a narrow logic up to the point where none of the choices are relevant to
a public health emergency. One I plus another I plus another I doesn't equal us. The
fundamental premise of neoliberalism, the Robinsonade I, has
always been a cynical dodge to let rich people keep their loot.
The mortality rate and contagion factor recently reported for Coronavirus (links at top)
place it above the modern benchmark of the Spanish Flu of 1918 in terms of potential lethality.
What should make people angry is how the reconfiguration of political economy intended to make
a few people really rich has put the rest of us at increased risk. These are real people's
lives and they matter.
Finally, for students of neoliberalism: there is no conflation of neoliberalism with
neoclassical economics here. Milton Friedman, one of the founders of neoliberalism through
the Mont Pelerin Society, produced a long career's worth of half-baked garbage economics. On
the rare occasions when he wasn't helping Chilean fascists toss students out of airplanes in
flight, he was pawning his infantile theories off on future Chamber of Commerce and ALEC
predators. His positivism was already known to be a farce when he took it up. Here is a primer that
explains why it is, and always will be, a farce.
Rob Urie is an artist and political economist. His book Zen Economics is
published by CounterPunch Books.
After a community transmitted case of coronavirus was reported in California,
Dr. Drew Pinsky talks about the coronavirus:
PINSKY: I don't know what they're talking about. We used to point at the way Indiana
responded to the opiate and the HIV epidemic as the model for the country. I don't know what
they're talking about. The only reason I felt comfortable with Pence as Vice President was I
was aware of his track record in Indiana in handling these serious problems, and they handled
them better than most states did, almost any other state. So, I don't know what the hell
people are talking about. That is fake news...
We have in the United States 24 million cases of flu-like illness, 180,000
hospitalizations, 16,000 dead from influenza. We have zero deaths from coronavirus. We have
almost no cases. There are people walking around out there with the virus that don't even
know they have it, it's so mild.
So it's going to be much more widespread than we knew. It's
going to be much milder than we knew. The 1.7% fatality rate is going to fall. Where was the
press during the Mediterranean Corona outbreak, where the fatality rate was 41%? Why didn't
they get crazed about MERS or SARS?
This is an overblown press-created hysteria. This thing
is well in hand. President Trump is absolutely correct.
".....when Trump said sick people go to work, he was talking about telecommuting."
In his defense, Trump's idea of "going to work" is sitting for long hours in
self-quarantine watching Fox and tweeting about it. So maybe he thought most other people's
jobs are like that too.
Local long term care facility in a local upscale neighborhood. Sixty-nine residents. Currently, eleven dead from Covid-19.
Sure, almost all of them were over 60 and had health issues. That also describes me, my wife, and most of my close friends and
family. The arguments over death rates are absurd. On average, this is just the flu by another name! If you're 16, hey, no big
deal.
Why all the hysteria?
Too many old folks around anyway! But for quite a few of us, getting this thing with no chance to
vaccinate against it seems tantamount to a death sentence.
The city administration has recommended that anyone over 60 should
consider avoiding public places, particularly crowded ones. This isn't hysteria. In the face of the facts at the Life Care Center
it's simple prudence.
There are between 20 and 70 thousand deaths from the flu in the US every year. Equivalent
numbers in China would be something like 80 and 300 thousand for China. They have reported
3000 to date. Even if they have underestimated by a factor of 10, this virus is still way
less of a problem than the annual flu.
And what if Covid-19 has been around for years and we just now became aware of it
because of better testing? We do know of other corona viruses; some cause the common
cold.
I agree with Trump, and I live in Lombardy, the Italian region most hit by coronavirus.
Maybe closing schools and other public and private places saves some life. Why, then, don't
we abolish cars? roughly 1.3 millions lives are lost every years in car accidents.
There's a price to be paid shutting down public life for an infection. As usual, Trump
is criticized as if he were an imbecile - even by Dreher - while his stance is as
reasonable as others.
I see this hysteric trend as another exemplification of a dangerous and noxious approach
to life, according to which: adverse events not only are to be avoided, but are an
infringement on my absolute right to be happy, and all the world must stop to protect
me.
Among other things my background includes some game theory and scenario planning--skills that were extremely useful in some of
the various projects I was involved with in my past. There were two obvious ways Trump could have handled this
(1) Minimize the potential for a crisis; nothing to see here, it's all a plot, move along now. Potential outcomes:
A. It turns out to be nothing. He looks good for keeping his cool while everyone about him is losing their head. MAGA!
B. It turns out to be really serious. He's recognized as an incompetent, ignorant doofus and is reviled for generations
as the President who fiddled while Rome burned.
(2) Play it serious, energize the federal government and work closely with state and local governments to deal with the
potentiality for a massive medical, economic, and social crisis. Potential outcomes:
A. It turns out to be nothing. He saved the country! A hero!
B. Despite the best efforts of all involved, despite all the resources and energy thrown into the fight, there's still a massive
problem . We did all we could, everything we know how to do, and still were unsuccessful. You can't defeat Mother Nature,
fight the tide, sometimes even wearing your lucky rocketship underpants isn't enough. But no one could have done more.
He chose path (1). The wrong choice--viruses, like weather, don't respond to insults, tweets, bullying, lawsuits, and happytalk
in front of supporters. Right now it appears that we're going down the (1)B path of the decision tree. I do expect his Cult
of Personality defenders to invoke (2)B in his defense, though--it wouldn't have mattered what he did, so it was all good.
Trump's on Twitter (because it's not like he has any work to do) bragging about his travel ban and how we only have a few cases,
and we're keeping the number as low as possible. Gee, I wonder why they haven't banned travelers from Italy yet. Anyone?
The US health care system is a rent seeking profit machine. We do not have a robust public health system. No kidding they're
going to miss their target of a million tests. We're not going to do anything beyond talk about paid sick leave either. We're
just going to sit back and let this spread. Maybe if we don't test for it, we can pretend we don't have any cases?
The Emperor Has No Clothes.
I don't have much faith in the US learning anything from this debacle. Never was a nation so convinced of its superiority as
the USA. Well.....maybe the Roman Empire.
Rome was utterly dominant for a thousand years, we barely made 75 before utter and complete incompetence derailed us. We ain't
Rome. We ain't Byzantium. Hell we ain't even imperial Spain.
Look, I am not a fan of Trump, and everything you've said here about his having bungled the response to COVID is correct.
Nevertheless, for two months Our Moral Superiors were whinging about the dangers of "racism" and how it would be "xenophobic"
to close the borders, which would have been the correct response at the time. Even now, the SJWs who somehow managed to wrangle
control of the CDC are more concerned with policing people's language than with giving them solid advice on how to prepare for
the coming outbreak.
My point is: had Trump taken the correct, necessary, broadly authoritarian measures--close the borders, institute mandatory
military quarantine, etc.--they'd be calling him Hitler (I mean, more than they normally do), and federal judges would be issuing
nationwide injunctions claiming mandatory quarantine is a violation of Civil Rights law. So I have a hard time blaming him entirely
for this, and an even harder time taking the critics seriously.
"...had Trump taken the correct, necessary, broadly authoritarian
measures--close the borders, institute mandatory military quarantine,
etc.--they'd be calling him Hitler (I mean, more than they normally do),
and federal judges would be issuing nationwide injunctions claiming
mandatory quarantine is a violation of Civil Rights law."
Jeez freakin' Louise. He needs to grow a pair and just do the right thing NO MATTER what he is called or how many lies are
told about him.
I would be able to forgive bungling the balance between civil liberties and quarantine in this situation. You are correct on the
difficulties Trump faces with that.
I have a more difficult time forgiving Trump's downplaying of the disease and the overall unpreparedness of our country. Yes,
we need to control panic. That can be done without trivializing the potential seriousness of what we face. Yes, we had a short
time to prepare. However, we could have had clear and well articulated plans in place to get better testing developed and into
the hands of medical professionals.
I understand that Trump's opponents are politicizing this. That is unconscionable. But, it is not an excuse for Trump's handling
of the situation.
We cannot stop the spread of COVID-19, but we can have more or less effective responses. If my family member is suffering from
this, it is meaningless to me whether to blame Trump or his opponents. I expect them all to step up and start acting like adults.
Well, I won't belabor you with a long post, researched citations and such, because I expect them to fall on blind eyes. You are
wrong, factually and demonstrably, on every point you try to make.
The one potential exception is your what-if. If Trump had the moral integrity of a 10-year-old caught red-handed, hand in cookie
jar, he would have done the authoritative things and stood up against the over-reactions. You are wrong about the court injunctions
in your what-if, with very long precedent to show for it.
The virus was in the US by the time Wuhan fell. Closing the borders and imposing martial law and 24/7 mandatory curfews would
not have changed that fact.
We needed to be preparing a pandemic response, but the group responsible for that had been cut. We needed to get sound information
out, but we opted for spin. We needed to prepare our hospitals and doctors and nurses to care for the infected, and we *still
have not done that*.
Walls did not stop the black death, they can't stop this, either.
Walls and quarantines slow down the rate of infection, giving hospitals more ability to help people who get sick. Not overwhelming
the hospital system is maybe the single most important thing.
That's something that a lot of the "what, me worry?" crowd is missing: the death rate might -- might -- be relatively low, but
all those hospital beds will be taken up with coronavirus patients, and not them, with their other problems. Seattle doc on the
radio tonight said they're now postponing elective surgeries to keep beds open. Another doc said today that his clinic is overwhelmed
by people with coronavirus symptoms (they don't know if they have the virus because they can't get tested), but the phones are
ringing with people with other problems bitching about where's their cholesterol test result, dammit? These people have no freaking
clue about what's actually happening in the world of medicine. They want service, and they want it NOW!
They aren't. By how it sounds both the 2-3% and 1% are estimates of the CFR.
The story that's creating the mixed numbers is based on what happened in China. Accordingly, the CFR started at about 3-4%
when the virus first started, but now the CFR is sitting at .7% due to better treatments, the hospitals being better prepared,
and tests now finding more cases (including milder cases that aren't resulting in death). The key takeaway is that we're basing
all of this on the results of China which isn't exactly the most known for open communication of their issues. Europe and the
US are too new in their outbreaks to really give us a clear picture on CFR.
We also have a good few people who are REALLY trying to push a certain narrative, from the Trump administration wanting a low
number to make the disease look weak to his opponents who want this to be proof that ends his career. It's making finding accurate
information VERY annoying.
It also doesn't help that the coronavirus has VERY different effects depending on the person. For healthy people, it's very
much possible for them to have mild symptoms they mistake for an annoying cold or, a least 'not enough to risk losing your job
by trying to stay home.' For people who are vulnerable to respiratory infections or have immune issues, it turns into a nightmare
fast.
Best I can gather is that the disease, at first, looks like an easier form of a dangerous disease with lots of people getting
it and 3-4% of them dying. But then you realize it's MUCH more common than it looks as it 'stealth' infects most of the population
with most not really realizing it. Thus while we watch a Nursing Home struggling to fight it off entire cities suffer from 'mild
sneezing' until a hospital a few states off suddenly swells with a swarm of bad cases.
I'm betting that .7% is probably close to accurate for the CFR and that 60% infection might be underestimating.
Even 73 percent of Republicans polled agree that Trump is "self-centered." Pew notes that
even though most Republicans don't like the way he conducts himself, they still approve of the
job he's done. That's sustainable when things are going well for the country. But we are at the
beginning of a pandemic that, public health considerations aside, is going to have
massive social and economic impact. The markets are diving not because the media are
telling them to, but because investors can see clearly the long-term significance of this
crisis. I remind you that China has all but shut down its economy to fight this thing. That
doesn't happen over nothing.
Think of it: Boeing enters this crisis in serious trouble over its self-inflicted 737 Max
problem. Now it is facing an airline industry that expects catastrophic losses. This will have
obvious impact on Boeing's orders. What will it mean to the American economy, and to the
economy in Washington state, if Boeing goes under?
No president has the power to prevent this pandemic from reaching our shores, and it would
be unfair to blame Trump for it. But it is perfectly fair to give him credit or blame for the
way he handles the crisis. Trump has enormous political liabilities in the best of times and
suddenly, these are not the best of times, and they are not going to be good for the
foreseeable future. The idea that the President of the United States is sitting in the White
House thinking only about himself, sending out childish tweets about his political enemies, and
blaming the media for hyping the coronavirus threat -- well, the political idiocy of this
response could easily be the thing that not only gives the White House to the Democrats, but
also costs the GOP the Senate. Trump has no cushion here.
So it goes. I cannot for the life of me understand why, leaving aside the public health
aspects of the president's response, people cannot see what a political disaster he's
making for himself and the GOP. He doesn't have to act like the zombie apocalypse is upon us.
He only has to behave like Rudy Giuliani did as Mayor of New York City in the fall of 2001. But
then, as we know, Donald Trump saw the Twin Towers fall, and thought about himself:
My notes trom a Morgan btanley hosted event with John
Hopkins Chief Epidemiologist. JH is forecasting a
widespread outbreak, they est 40-60% of the world pop will
be infected over 1-2 years. They est true death rate will be
.1% -.5%. They expect it to peak in the spring...
ITS NOT THAT BAD- many no symptoms, to cold, to flu-like
Dangerous for elderly and immunocompromised, as reported
No incentive right no to test mild cases, so the death rate will be massively
overstated
They expect there to be school closures, but that they will not be particularly
effective
They believe this will be a circulating annual virus like the flu that will peak in
the
spring
They believe this has been circulating for some time, most cases are very mild,
under-tested
He stated "i will likely get the virus, as I will be treating these patients"
"I will not wear a mask because it will be useless"
The biggest risk to travel is flying to an international destination and then having
the govt cancel travel
Hospitals are likely to be overwhelmed, ICUs will be stressed and undersupplied
Social distancing unlikely to be effective, basically just wash your hands and don't
touch your face
By 2022 we will likely have vaccines and ultimately we will have routine childhood
immunizations
He emphasized that this is a fluid situation and this information can quickly become
stale, but this is their best guess at this time #COVlDi9 #coronavirus
"... On the surface it does sound reasonable but I think about the numbers here. So an infected kid goes to school and infects several dozen kids (and teachers) who infect their families when they go home. When they go for medical treatment, then several dozen nurses and the like are infected who have to be taken out of the fight for a fortnight. ..."
"... In short, this approach actually floods the hospitals with patients all at the same time whereas if that kid had stayed home, he could only infect his own family. It seems that with Coronavirus, it is mostly a numbers game. ..."
Macron was asked about this yesterday by the French media and made, for him, a sensible
point. He said that although France would soon have to declare an actual epidemic (423 cases
as of last night and a significant increase over the previous day) the government had decided
that there was no point in closing all schools now, or soon.
His argument was that many of the health workers who would be needed to fight the epidemic
themselves have children, and would be obliged to stay home and look after them, thus
potentially bringing the services themselves to a halt after a time. (France's extensive
nursery system would have to be closed as well).
This strikes me as a reasonable argument, and one with wider implications. What are the
second- and third-order effects of school closures on societies where it's now taken for
granted that in the majority of families with children of school age, both parents work?
On the surface it does sound reasonable but I think about the numbers here. So an infected
kid goes to school and infects several dozen kids (and teachers) who infect their families
when they go home. When they go for medical treatment, then several dozen nurses and the like
are infected who have to be taken out of the fight for a fortnight.
In short, this approach actually floods the hospitals with patients all at the same time
whereas if that kid had stayed home, he could only infect his own family. It seems that with
Coronavirus, it is mostly a numbers game.
"... I agree with you about Trump. This reminds me of George W. Bush telling America their most patriotic duty after 9/11 was to go shopping and spend money. ..."
"... Western institutions may at some level be corrupted but at least you've got institutions! Most countries don't have effective ones. Secondly, despite the degradation of them (partly thanks to market fundamentalists) I wouldn't wholly endorse Rod's pessimistic hype..there's hope yet. Er..they're running out of hand sanitizer here..maybe you're right after all! ..."
He's his own worst enemy. He could have let the actual medical experts deal with the
response and if he wanted to reassure the nation read out a teleprompter speech written by
said experts. Neither underplay nor overplay the situation,just the facts. Unfortunately he
wants to be the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral. Self absorbed and
vainglorious don't begin to cover it. No, he's not responsible for COVID19 but he's
responsible for the scattershot response and lack of message discipline.
It's even better than that. Trump, the guy who ran on building a wall because of dangers
from abroad and who ran on China bashing, could be taken down because when an actual threat
from abroad came, he downplayed the threat even though that threat came from China. You
couldn't make this stuff up.
Greek tragedy requires the protagonist to be a noble man, so it isn't quite that.
You know what it reminds me of? President Merkin Muffley in "Dr Strangelove," trying to
babytalk Premier Kissoff about "the bomb ( pause ) the nuclear bomb, Dmitri," and General
Buck Turgidson, in the same movie, making the argument to Muffley that the Air Force should
go all in: "I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed, Mr President. 70, 80 million
casualties, tops."
I agree with you about Trump. This reminds me of George W. Bush telling America their most
patriotic duty after 9/11 was to go shopping and spend money. Concern with the stock market
over all else. The power that the DOW and the Line Going Up Up Forever has over Republicans
is really something else, and it continues.
That said, the World Health Organization and various "public health" authority figures
have consistently been telling us that we have more to fear from "stigma" and "racism" and
"victim-blaming" in relation to the coronavirus than we do from the virus itself. It's far
from clear to me that our "public health" authorities have been all that much better.
More or less. There was a strong bipartisan motivation to ignore COVID19 in February, with
the right worried about market disruption and the left worried about stoking the fires of
xenophobia.
No one likes George W. Bush anymore - and for good reason! - but the actual quotation was
about fear, and the paraphrase really distorts the meaning. This is one my pet peeves.
Actual remark: "When they struck, they wanted to create an atmosphere of fear. And one
of the great goals of this nation's war is to restore public confidence in the airline
industry. It's to tell the traveling public: Get on board. Do your business around the
country. Fly and enjoy America's great destination spots. Get down to Disney World in
Florida. Take your families and enjoy life, the way we want it to be enjoyed."
"Consistently". Is that really true, Matt? I somehow doubt it. Of all the statements made
by public health authorities I'd be surprised if more than a very small proportion focus on
racism!
I raise this point reluctantly since you're one of the most perceptive commenters here.
But could it be that you're reading this through an ideological lens? From what I've been
reading the experts have consistently been saying that this * could* develop into a
pandemic and been consistently trying to outline practical measures that might slow down
the spread of it. Calm heads are what are needed now. That's not to deny scepticism toward
experts but at this stage I think we need to carefully listen to what is being said by
them.
Here are 24 different articles published before February 27 about the coronavirus. This is
by no means all of them.
"WHO Call on World Leaders to Stop Stigma and Hate Surrounding Coronavirus Outbreak", CNBC,
Feb. 15
"What's Spreading Faster Than Coronavirus in the US? Racist Assaults and Ignorant Attacks
Against Asians", CNN, Feb. 21
"In Europe, Fear Spreads Faster than the Coronavirus Itself: People and Places Associated
with the Virus Face Stigmatization," NYT Feb 19
"The New Coronavirus and Racist Tropes" Columbia Journalism Review Feb 25
"Far Right Trolls Use Coronavirus Meme to Spread Subtle Anti-Chinese Racism," Daily Dot,
Jan 30
"Xenophobia and Racism Related to the 2019-2020 Coronavirus Outbreak," Dedicated wikipedia
article established in Jan 2020 at a time when there was still no dedicated article on
wikipedia on symptoms of coronavirus or practical steps for preventing the spread of
coronavirus
"The latest targets of racist rumors about coronavirus," Washington Post Feb 25
"No Chinese Allowed: Racism and Fear are Now Spreading along with the Coronavirus",
MarketWatch Feb 3
"Let's Call It Trumpvirus," Feb. 27 NYT
"Coronavirus Is Prompting Alarm on American College Campuses. Asian-American Discrimination
Could Do More Harm," Chronicle of Higher Ed, Feb 5
"Coronavirus Task Force Another Example of Trump Administration's Lack of Diversity," CNN
Jan 30
"Doctors and Nurses at Melbourne Hospital Racially Abused over Coronavirus Panic," The
Guardian Feb 26 (in the article there is only one single confirmed incident in which a rude
comment was made to a single medical professional, although the title of the article refers
to plural incidents)
"Asian caucus urges fellow lawmakers not to perpetuate racist stereotypes amid coronavirus
fears," The Hill, Feb 26
"How Covid-19 Coronavirus is Uncovering American Racism," Forbes Feb 18
"Chinese People in The UK Targeted with Abuse over Coronavirus", Guardian Feb 18
"The Pathogen of Prejudice: Coronavirus Spreads Racism Against Ethnic Chinese," The
Economist Feb 17
"The World in Grips of Epidemic More Dangerous than Coronavirus," -- Racism, of course! Al
Jazeera, Feb 20
"Australia Condemns Coronavirus Racism," Voice of America, feb 14
"Fear of Coronavirus Fuels Racist Sentiment Targeting Asians," LA Times, Feb 3
"The coronavirus exposes the history of racism and 'cleanliness,'" Vox Feb 7
"How to contain the virus of racism during coronavirus outbreak," San Francisco Chronicle
Feb 12
"The new coronavirus is not an excuse to be racist," The Verge Feb 4
"Xenophobia is a Pre-Existing Condition. How Harmful Stereotypes and Racism are Spreading
Around the Coronavirus" Time Magazine Feb 3
"The Coronavirus and the Long History of Using Diseases to Justify Xenophobia," Washington
POst Feb 13
"the Panic Over Chinese People Doesn't Come from Coronavirus: Casual acts of racism against
Asians were spreading more quickly than the virus itself." Slate, Feb 4
"On Social Media, Racist Responses to Coronavirus Can Have Their Own Contagion," NPR Feb
2
"Covid-19 Coronavirus racism: viral videos" [ongoing series] The Star Feb 14
"Coronavirus: UK Sees rise in racism targeting Asian people" Sky News Feb 6
"The Ugly History of Blaming Ethnic Groups for Outbreaks," Bloomberg News, Feb 16
In the face of a pandemic which is already killing thousands of people and causing
widespread economic disruption, the main response from media was to portray this as
fundamentally a problem of bigotry. Those were the only terms in which they could
understand what was happening.
Why would you bet against me here, Khalid? You're smarter than this. I think you know,
on some level, that vast amounts of the West's institutions and "thought leaders" and the
people with megaphones have a single hammer -- megacorporate-compatible
wokeness/anti-racism/mandatory idpol -- and they treat everything they come across as a
nail. It's never failed them yet.
I think there are different things going on here. I'm not sure if one can lump together
'thought leaders' , the media, politicians and scientific experts. Furthermore, to talk
about 'the media' doesn't make much sense to me: where, when? Most of the news that I
follow (UK news) has very little about "racism" etc.
To say that it's been "the main response" really does sound -and pardon me for saying
this- slightly unhinged. To say that there are some concerns about racism is one thing, to
say it's the *main* story is a rather remarkable claim (to me, at least).
I think your broader point about institutions and hammers obviously has some validity.
Maybe we could discuss that sometime (you have on previous occasions-and with great
eloquence)?
Come on Matt, it's not about betting against you or anything like that. Nothing
personal, my friend. I simply don't agree with you!
Western institutions may at some level be corrupted but at least you've got
institutions! Most countries don't have effective ones. Secondly, despite the degradation
of them (partly thanks to market fundamentalists) I wouldn't wholly endorse Rod's
pessimistic hype..there's hope yet. Er..they're running out of hand sanitizer here..maybe
you're right after all!
1. The need to get R 0 below 1.0 requires Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions or
tight containment and isolation actions (quarantine).
2. The need to keep the economy going (or risk a crash).
3. The need to keep the infection level below that which would swamp hospitals.
While young people may be minimally affected by the virus, they can certainly be disease
vectors for us not so young people.
These are among some of the leverage points/ point of conflict to watch.
Then, do the numbers based on the statistics from Korea if you don't like the ones from
China, extrapolating on to the world population. It's going to simply be too pervasive not to
be economically devastating unless the R0 is driven down.
That R2+ in China may reflect their culture; in the US there's simply less touching and
crowding, at least outside a handful of big cities. State/local public health is capable of
educating at those levels, and at this point they represent the only hope I can imagine.
The vulnerability of the US in the current political environment comes because this
regime, versus that of the Chinese, doesn't realize it's better to take their economic lumps
at the front-end, stopping this thing before it goes wild. That is certainly what Trump etal
are allowing to happen under the radar. (Scratch that: having deliberately turned the radar
OFF!)
What I foresee is a lag of some time in the US before it hits, and hits hard. Until then,
individual cases will be effectively shrugged off as one-offs, lumped in with
flu/pneumonia.
Was also interested in noting the revised incubation time noted, of 4.8 days. That would
make strangling this thing immediately quite the strategy to take, before it breaks-out into
the exponential and overwhelming growth that's now just a matter of time.
Huh? You need to stay 6 feet away from people to be sure of not being infected by
coughing. Are you telling me Americans don't stand in lines at grocery stores? Sit near each
other waiting to see doctors or in the waiting areas of service firms or government offices?
How about elevators?
But the bigger infection vector seems to be surfaces and the virus can live on them for up
to 9 days. So shopping cart handles, any ATM or payment device, parking meters, the valet who
handles tons of cars handling your steering wheel and key fob .
Hmmm . that is interesting. About 10 years ago, I worked in the Canadian health care
sector, for the feds delivering a project that involved identifying best practices for
emergency response plans for hospitals. The long and short, most hospital emergency response
plans already included responses to support staff by providing childcare options during
crises, to account for schools being closed. It was already rather widely embedded, something
we did not initially expect. For those who may be interested, two BPs we did identify that
were surprising in different way – local sourcing of food supply because in Ontario,
for example, the food was often prepped in Toronto and shipped around the province, as well
updating/standardizing generators and other emergency power systems.
This is one of those technically important issues I'd want to have real expertise comment
on.
I just read a credible summary of the 1918 flu, and there were a series of waves, or
possibly mutations, with it. Much of this history has been reconstructed forensically, given
the lack of science at the time. HOWEVER, there were definitely waves. It may have been a
case, in my reading, of the bug working its way through virgin hosts who somehow ducked it
the first time around. But there were several of these "waves".
Towns like Crested Butte in Colorado and a small handful of other towns, had some smart
doctors who knew what was up and were largely able to manage it through closing access to
their town until it finally "ran its course," whatever that actually means.
It does have the same genetic structure as flu, so seasonal vaccines would presumably be
possible. But, the mutations you mention, two of which were documented in China, make me want
to be educated. Modest genetic variations allow scientists to track the bug, as has happened
in Washington State. But ..someone really needs to provide more resolution to this
picture.
Best to be careful with the language here; The WHO declared nothing.
The joint WHO/Chinese CDC report OBSERVED a 3.4 death rate. There were plenty of
qualifiers on that figure, mainly due to potential asymptomatic cases. However, their search
for cases to test has been as robust as an authoritarian state can make it, and they worked
hard to factor all the variables in, so the report minimized how much lower it could be.
What may be more pertinent for the US is the South Korean experience, with their true
western healthcare system. I think there was a link to the figures on NC. Both experiences
have something to contribute to our understanding: consider them together.
With 5300+ cases there were 32 fatalities, making for a overall .6 mortality rate.
Assuming any number of infected that weren't screened would only drive that % down, while
fatalities you could pretty reliably expect to should up in the dead column.
No, you have this wrong. Don't get authoritative your supposed facts when you don't have
them right. So stop misleading readers. It's called agnotology, or informally, "making shit
up" and is a violation of our written site Policies, which I strongly suggest you read before
commenting again.
The China CDC's study released mid February found a case fatality rate of 2.3%.
The WHO most assuredly DID say the fatality rate was 3.4% based on global data.
The dispute began March 3 when the head of the WHO announced that the mortality rate for
the new coronavirus was 3.4%, which was higher than previously believed and made it far
more deadly than the seasonal flu.
"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 (the disease spread by the virus) cases have
died," said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a briefing. "By comparison,
seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."
Moreover, the study, as we indicated, says it takes ~30 days for the coronavirus to run
its course. Fatalities will usually occur late in this time frame, since the coronavirus
typically acts like a normal flu for 5-7 days, then generates viral pneumonia in severe
cases.
With a rapidly rising infection rate, the number of infections mainly includes people at
early phases in the infection process, and hence naive computation of mortality rates
(deaths/reported cases) are misleading on the low side.
Dr. Tedros, Director General of the World Health Organisation, said that 3.4% of all
reported cases have died. This is a CFR (case fatality rate) of 3.4% The British Chief
Medical officer claims that approximately 1% of reported cases are fatal.
Both of those
statements are covered in the first minute or two of Dr. John Campbell's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HpU_x9OgQ4
I leave to the those who watch the first 100 seconds of the video to decide for themselves
which estimate Dr. Campbell finds more realistic.
A Russian in Wuhan, Hubei YouTube (below)- 1,209,416 views, 31:29 minutes
Must watch real autocratic LOCKDOWN . CGTN reported Hubei should be free from Covid-19
by end of April, maybe not 100% but at least close.
Pompeo Blames China For US Outbreak, Says Lack Of Transparency "Left Us Behind The
Curve"
Before I address supply chain disruptions and other societal impacts, I want to address how
the government and the Center For Disease Control have totally failed and endangered the
medical professionals and law enforcement officers of the United States.
They failed in the following ways:
Did not provide timely and accurate information to police, medics, doctors, nurses, and
other professionals. They did not tell these fine folks how contagious COVID-19 actually is.
They never expressed that this disease is aerosolized.
Provided no way for medical professionals to test. The long delay in testing supplies
combined with delivering dirty and unusable test kits has made a bad situation much worse
than it had to be.
The CDC has stopped reporting testing after complaints about how few they were doing.
This is irresponsible and not how an agency that is supposed to be working in the best
interest of the health of America should act.
Refusing to acknowledge that the incubation period of COVID-19 is likely longer than 14
days. The result is an inadequate quarantine period.
The people that work hard to provide medical and emergency services for us are being let
down and we will all pay for this in the future. What happens when the people trained to take
care of us when we are sick and keep communities safe cannot because they are sick too?
5 Dallas police officers were sent home after it was discovered they were potentially
exposed to COVID-19 due to interaction during the arrest and processing of a man.
Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved
into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that
show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L
type (∼70%) is more prevalent than the S type (∼30%), the S type was found to be
the ancestral version.
Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the
frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020.
Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which
might be more aggressive and spread more quickly.
On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might
have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure.
"... Researchers have discovered that smooth (non-porous) surfaces like door knobs transmit bacteria and viruses better than porous materials like paper money because porous, especially fibrous, materials absorb and trap the contagion, making it harder to contract through simple touch. ..."
"... A majority of respiratory viruses are enveloped (parainfluenza virus, influenza virus, RSV, and coronavirus) and survive on surfaces from hours to days . ..."
"... Studies have demonstrated that viral transfer from hands to surrounding surfaces is possible in 7 out of 10 viruses reviewed. Generally, research evidence suggests that a large portion of enteric and respiratory illnesses can be prevented through improved environmental hygiene, with an emphasis on better hand and surface cleaning practices. ..."
"... "Our structural analyses confidently predict that the Wuhan coronavirus uses ACE2 as its host receptor," the investigators wrote. That and several other structural details of the new virus are consistent with the ability of the Wuhan coronavirus to infect humans and with some capability to transmit among humans. ..."
"... Imagine trying to quarantine the Chicago metro area. That's the enormity of the task we're talking about. ..."
"... People who travel to and from China generally will be on the wealthier side and are likely to be covered in a US healthcare system. If the virus gets into the US uninsured population, then it is much less likely that they will seek medical help quickly, which should also aid in transmission, especially in the US as many other developed countries will be much better prepared to address a population-wide challenge. ..."
"... IF it gets out of control here, I foresee a nationwide Super Dome after Katrina situation. Tent cities full of sick folks ..."
"... I was there on 9/11 and there is a calm and sense of cohesion that happens during calamities ..."
"... 10,000 people died of the flu in the US in 2019, ..."
"... How many people can even tell the difference between a cold and flu? The pressure to go to work even when we have sick leave or vacation days can be intense. And the lack of information . ..."
"... the people who actually need hospitalization for the disease need mechanical ventilation, and this is a highly specialized resource that's in much shorter supply than mere hospital beds. ..."
First, there is the possibility that the virus may be transmitted by touching surfaces.
MedPage Today :
[Maria Van Kerkhove, of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis division] said that evidence indicates the virus can be transmitted
through the respiratory route, via droplets, and physical contact between people, but also from fomites, as the virus can live
on surfaces for a short period of times
Any inanimate object, that when contaminated with or exposed to infectious agents, such as pathogenic bacteria, viruses or
fungi, can transfer disease to a new host. In addition to objects in hospital settings, other common fomites for humans are door
knobs, light switches, handrails, elevator buttons, television remote controls, pens, and other items that are frequently touched
by different people and that may be infrequently cleaned.
Researchers have discovered that smooth (non-porous) surfaces like door knobs transmit bacteria and viruses better than
porous materials like paper money because porous, especially fibrous, materials absorb and trap the contagion, making it harder
to contract through simple touch.
So far as I know, there is no case of #2019-nCoV with a history of fomite transmission, so we will have to look to other viruses
for indications. End sidebar.
There is now growing evidence that contaminated fomites or surfaces play a key role in the spread of viral infections.
Virus spread by person-to-person contact can be interrupted with isolation of the viral carrier. Yet, isolation may prove to
be impractical or difficult if there are many people or if the source of infection is unknown (69). Consequently, interrupting
disease spread via indoor fomites is one of the more practical methods for limiting or preventing enteric and respiratory viral
infections.
A majority of respiratory viruses are enveloped (parainfluenza virus, influenza virus, RSV, and coronavirus) and survive
on surfaces from hours to days .
Studies have demonstrated that viral transfer from hands to surrounding surfaces is possible in 7 out of 10 viruses reviewed.
Generally, research evidence suggests that a large portion of enteric and respiratory illnesses can be prevented through improved
environmental hygiene, with an emphasis on better hand and surface cleaning practices.
(So clean your keyboards, light switches, etc. besides washing your hands!) For a corona virus, although not #2019-nCoV specifically,
from the American Society for Microbiology, "Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces"
(2010):
The potential reemergence of SARS or the emergence of new strains of pandemic influenza virus, including avian and swine influenza
viruses, could pose serious risks for nosocomial disease spread via contaminated surfaces. However, this risk is still poorly
understood, and more work is needed to quantify the risk of exposure and possible transmission associated with surfaces.
Animal coronaviruses that "host jump" to humans result in severe infections with high mortality, such as severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS) and, more recently, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). We show here that a closely related human coronavirus,
229E, which causes upper respiratory tract infection in healthy individuals and serious disease in patients with comorbidities,
remained infectious on surface materials common to public and domestic areas for several days. The low infectious dose means that
this is a significant infection risk to anyone touching a contaminated surface.
Again, however, we don't have any kind of case data whatever, so for now I'm putting this into the category of things one might
worry about (as opposed to things one should absolutely not do, like standing next to a coughing person from Wuhan for any period
of time). Fascinatingly, the article concludes:
However, rapid inactivation, irreversible destruction of viral RNA, and massive structural damage were observed in coronavirus
exposed to copper and copper alloy surfaces.
So if your bathroom fixtures are made out of copper, you're good. Alternatively, one could visit the local home and garden store
and experiment . (Kidding! Copper sprays are poisonous!)
The novel coronavirus was detected in the loose stool of the first U.S. case -- a finding that hasn't featured among case reports
from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak. However, that doesn't surprise scientists who have studied coronaviruses, nor
doctors familiar with the bug that caused SARS.
Squat latrines, common in China, lacking covers and hands that aren't washed thoroughly with soap and water after visiting
the bathroom could be a source of virus transmission, said [John Nicholls, a clinical professor of pathology at the University
of Hong Kong], who was part of the research team that isolated and characterized the SARS virus.
A virus-laden aerosol plume emanating from a SARS patient with diarrhea was implicated in possibly hundreds of cases at Hong
Kong's Amoy Gardens housing complex in 2003. That led the city's researchers to understand the importance of the virus's spread
through the gastrointestinal tract, and to recognize both the limitation of face masks and importance of cleanliness and hygiene,
Nicholls said.
I wouldn't classify face masks as virtue signaling, exactly, but the more I read, the more 19th-Century basic hygiene measures
assume salience. (I'm not sure whether fecal matter as such would be considered a fomite, as opposed, say, to the metal handle of
a flush toilet.)
Travel and trade restrictions can lead to dire economic consequences for countries involved, creating a disincentive for them
to quickly disclose potential outbreaks to the WHO or other nations. They can hinder the sharing of information, make it harder
to track cases and their contacts, and disrupt the medical supply chain, potentially fueling shortages of drugs and medical supplies
in the areas hit hardest by the outbreak. They also send a punitive message, which could contribute to discrimination and stigmatization
against Chinese nationals, experts warned.
Any effort and money spent crafting and enforcing travel and trade restrictions also take away already-stretched resources
from public health measures that have been proven to be far more effective, experts said. Those measures include providing assistance
to countries with weaker health systems, accelerating the development of a vaccine or rapid diagnostic test, and clearly communicating
with the public about when and how to seek care.
I've gotta say I'm of two minds about this. I accept the argument that a travel ban will only slow, and not stop, the acceleration
of a virus (since original propagators will have already been in-country). And apparently the Chinese interpreted Trump's punitive
message all too clearly. Still, if increased social distance is a good method to stop an epidemic, what social distance is easier
to increase than that between countries? (Perhaps an exception could be made for scientists and medical personnel.)
For example :
[T]ravel has made the world far more interconnected than in 2003, accelerating the rate of infection. China -- the starting
point for both viruses -- has become the world's largest outbound tourism market and one of the engines driving the global economy.
In the intervening years since the SARS outbreak, global airline capacity into China is 3.8 times larger than it was in 2005.
China flights now account for 12 percent of total worldwide available seat kilometers versus only five percent 15 years ago, according
to PlaneStats.com, Oliver Wyman's aviation data portal.
Decade-long structural studies by Fang Li of the University of Minnesota, et al. have shown how the SARS virus (SARS-CoV) interacts
with animal and human hosts in order to infect them. The mechanics of infection by the Wuhan coronavirus appear to be similar.
These investigators used the knowledge they gleaned from multiple SARS-CoV strains -- isolated from different hosts in different
years -- and angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) receptors from different animal species to model predictions for the novel
Wuhan coronavirus. (Both viruses use ACE2 to gain entry into the cell, but it serves normally as a regulator for heart function.)
"Our structural analyses confidently predict that the Wuhan coronavirus uses ACE2 as its host receptor," the investigators
wrote. That and several other structural details of the new virus are consistent with the ability of the Wuhan coronavirus to
infect humans and with some capability to transmit among humans.
"Alarmingly, our data predict that a single mutation [at a specific spot in the genome] could significantly enhance [the
Wuhan coronavirus's] ability to bind with human ACE2 ," the investigators write. For this reason, Wuhan coronavirus evolution
in patients should be closely monitored for the emergence of novel mutations at the 501 position in its genome, and to a lesser
extent, the 494 position, in order to predict the possibility of a more serious outbreak than has been seen so far.
Ulp. Great work on the science, though!
No, #2019-nCoV Is Not a Bioweapon
At least one finance-adjacent blog (not this one) promoted a bioRxiv pre-print entitled "Uncanny similarity of unique inserts
in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag", containing the inflammatory passage "The finding of 4 unique inserts in the
2019-nCoV, all of which have identity/similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous
in nature." That paper has now been withdrawn. From Richard Sever, Assistant Director of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press, Editor
of CSH Perspectives, bioRxiv Co-Founder:
Authors of disputed "uncanny" 2019-nCoV preprint to voluntarily withdraw preprint:
"It was not our intention to feed into the conspiracy theories we appreciate the criticisms and will get back with a revised version"
https://t.co/zGcT1440D0
The 2019-nCoV genome does not contain remarkable genomic properties which need explaining, and for which we'd look to some
kind of bioengineering as a cause.
The virus has a close 96% sequence overlap to a naturally occurring bat coronavirus, and coronaviruses have been known to jump
from bats to humans by way of intermediates before, like the SARS coronavirus. The differences between the genome sequences, including
the ones identified by the Indian study, are in variable regions of the genome that we'd expect to differ, and the 4% difference
in the genomes is hard to call as "high" or "low," given that we don't know exactly which bats the 2019-nCoV strain came from
or when it diverged from its closest known ancestor.
Nor is it surprising that the known 2019-nCoV sequences all contain the same genomic changes relative to a known relative.
They all came from the same outbreak from the same animal reservoir, i.e. they only diverged from each other a few months ago
at most. It's not surprising that they haven't evolved very much away from each other.
Nor does the clinical presentation of 2019-nCoV have novel features which need explaining. Its symptom profile, degree of transmissibility,
severity, mortality rate, duration, incubation and latent period, ability to jump from animals to humans, and ability to transmit
asymptomatically and by skin contact are all within the precedents established by other human coronaviruses.
That is, the 2019-nCoV genome and the way it affects humans have, by themselves, no special anomaly which needs explaining.
The levels of genetic similarity between the 2019-nCoV and [BatCoV] RaTG13 suggest that the latter does not provide the exact
variant that caused the outbreak in humans, but the hypothesis that 2019-nCoV has originated from bats is very likely. We show
evidence that the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) is not-mosaic consisting in almost half of its genome of a distinct lineage within
the betacoronavirus.
Conclusion
There's been a good deal of dunking on how China's government and health care system has handled the #2019-nCoV epidemic (or pandemic).
For example, from the China Media Project, a really interesting media critique, "
As an Epidemic Raged, What Kept Party
Media Busy? ". It concludes:
On January 25, there were at last two reports about the epidemic on the right-hand side of the People's Daily front page. Either
of these stories would have merited top billing on the page, but this was not the case. Priority was given instead to a report
in the anti-poverty propaganda series, "The General Secretary Visited Hour Home."
During this key period, from January 21 to 25, many party members, cadres and ordinary people were full of suspicions. They
wondered how it was that no member of the CCP Standing Committee had yet managed to visit the scene of the epidemic in Wuhan,
something that had happened in the case of both the SARS epidemic and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. When people felt fearful and
at a loss, why was there all this focus on peace and happiness?
The blame certainly does not fall on the shoulders of the top editors of these Party papers. Since the start of the year, the
pages of China's Party newspapers have been given their "assigned seats." The activities in which leaders would take part had
already been fixed, and the themes to be emphasized had been more or less carved in stone. Inspections, greetings, expressions
of condolence, banquet speeches – everything had already been planned. There would be no detracting from the prestige of the "leader."
The system of the CCP is like a great big elephant. It is difficult for the sudden and unexpected to force any change
to its huge and lumbering gait .
All of the deception and miscalculation that has happened in the wake of the revealing of the epidemic has been a source of
immense public anger.
However, NC readers have are familiar with and have expressed a rather robust critique of the health care system in the United
States. Can we -- a country that until last year was experiencing dropping life expectancy -- say we would do better than China?
The fecal route is interesting. Most public restrooms don't have lids and modern water efficient toilets are designed to be
energetic, so they send sprays up into the air where the little droplets can contaminate many surfaces in a bathroom. This should
be a particularly efficient transmission route in airports. https://www.today.com/home/it-necessary-close-toilet-lid-when-you-flush-t143776
People who travel to and from China generally will be on the wealthier side and are likely to be covered in a US healthcare
system. If the virus gets into the US uninsured population, then it is much less likely that they will seek medical help quickly,
which should also aid in transmission, especially in the US as many other developed countries will be much better prepared to
address a population-wide challenge.
IF it gets out of control here, I foresee a nationwide Super Dome after Katrina situation. Tent cities full of sick folks
who are left to die and not allowed to leave. Chinese people getting gunned down for sneezing in Walmart. Every man for himself.
Empty supermarket shelves. No sign of the brave police who will refuse to go to work / get out of their cruisers. Doctors taking
a long vacation en masse. Gas shortages. Mass layoffs. Widespread starvation.
I think 8 across the country is making people worried. If this moves even into the hundreds, people will start to get scared
But I'm not sure about complete mayhem and pandemonium. I was there on 9/11 and there is a calm and sense of cohesion that
happens during calamities. But that was different than this.
I do think there will be a market crash and probably a global "something" (retraction, recession, not sure).
What's the Chinese saying – may you live in interesting times? LOL. The next 2-4 weeks will be very interesting indeed.
Of course there will be problems, but people have an uncanny ability to come together during disasters. This was written about
in A PARADISE BUILT IN HELL, by Rebecca Solnit. She talks about different disasters and the lack of looting and other shenaningans.
How many people can even tell the difference between a cold and flu? The pressure to go to work even when we have sick
leave or vacation days can be intense. And the lack of information . Does going to doctor help? What if a person gets stuck
in an isolation ward for observation who pays for that? Or do doctors send people home with a list of instructions?
And if we have thousands being held in hospitals -- Who pays. Will hospitals hold uninsured?
If people don't have insurance when then they won't go to the doctor if they think it is JUST a cold or flu. Even having insurance
I had a couple of bronchitis events where I didn't go to the doctor until I was crazy sick. Hardly able to draw a breath without
horrific cough.
I was reading that Chinese men who were taking an ACE inhibitor were suffering fewer severe complications from CV. I can't
find the report though. Anyone know of this?
"[ ] We report the first case of 2019-nCoV infection confirmed in the United States and describe the identification, diagnosis,
clinical course, and management of the case, including the patient's initial mild symptoms at presentation with progression to
pneumonia on day 9 of illness. [ ]"
Being that this is only a single case, any conclusions drawn should be considered tentative at best. However, the information
is still useful. My big take-away from this and other sources is that this coronavirus disease may be like a common cold on steroids.
In fact, it may be symptomatically indistinguishable from a cold until it enters its more severe phase where it turns into a nasty
pneumonia. The pneumonia may occur many days after initial symptoms appear, so many suffers may assume they merely have a cold
until it takes a turn for the worse, right about the time they expect to be feeling better.
If you ask me, this is close to a worst case scenario for a pandemic disease. Not only are the periods of incubation and asymptomatic
transmission likely long, but the early symptoms may not be distinctive enough for people to stay home from work, much less admit
themselves to a hospital where they might get tested and quarantined.
Also, I want to note that so far it seems that the people who actually need hospitalization for the disease need mechanical
ventilation, and this is a highly specialized resource that's in much shorter supply than mere hospital beds. Even a relatively
contained outbreak, could cripple the ICU services in any affected city. This has the potential to directly and severely impact
essentially everyone except a handful of elites with exclusive concierge service, whose price may be about to go up a lot. Maybe
all those bunkers in New Zealand will be seeing some warm bodies soon?
"I wouldn't classify face masks as virtue signaling, exactly". Agree, but here's a link to how to properly put on and test
a face mask that may add protection: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/docs/2010-133/pdfs/2010-133.pdf
Note, N95 masks are also useful for those of us in wildfire prone areas, as they protect against smoke. Also, for exposed eyes
there are several options, wrap around glasses or sunglasses, paintball protection plastic glasses, swimmer goggles, ski goggles,
etc.
All the above will increase survival odds if it comes to that. Lets hope we never need to use them.
51 new cases and 1 new death in the United States. 11 in New York State: 3 are in serious
condition and are treated in intensive care units. New cases include a man in his 40s and a woman
in her 80s. 1st case in Nevada, Tennessee, New Jersey
Hail
says: Website Show Comment
February 26, 2020 at 12:27 am GMT 300 Words
@unit472 What we know so far suggests more the World War Z narrative (hitting wealthy,
jet-set countries hard) than your proposed narrative of China's BRI buddies getting hit hard.
At least in terms of the virology, not the soft-power hit, on which I would more agree.
But, then, we do not have perfect information. There may be many cases in certain countries
we have heard nothing of. As Anatoly says:
Meanwhile, carriers need not be symptomatic to transmit. At such early stages, you are
only going to identify these clusters by intensive testing, which as I understand nobody
apart from Italy and South Korea is really doing yet. One might make a comparison to a
tsunami. Undetectable when it's out in the deep ocean, unless you're specifically looking for
it
The latest I have seen is that South Korea's testing situation was as follows (this is about
as of 24 hours ago):
37,000 persons tested, mainly cases stemming from the Shinchonji cult
– 22,550 found not infected
– 13,250 results pending
– 900 confirmed infected , of which 9 dead.
Among the current pool of testees, it will presumably to rise to 25 to 35 deaths , if
the S.Korea deaths follow the same death rate as observed elsewhere and including the likely
infected among the results-pending group.
Of those with results known (22,550 negative + 900 positive = 23,450), the infection rate
of contactees was therefore 3.5% to 4% . They only use the limited testing resources on
people who came into contact with a known infected person, so this suggests that if you had
at-least-moderate close-quarter dealings with a COVID19-infectee, your odds (actually an East
Asian's odds) of getting it could well be less than 1 in 30. Obviously this would rise with
very close-quarter-, long-term contact.
The odds of death, in turn, are known to be less than 1 in 200 (<0.5%) for most people
without preexisting health problems, and as low as 1 in 500 (0.2%) for healthy,
core-working-age people. The chance of dying from a single case of close contact with a
COVID19-infectee are therefore no higher for most of us than 1-in-1500, at least the way I read
the data.
BeauHD on Tuesday April 02,
2019 @10:30PM from the it's-not-a-competition dept. An anonymous reader quotes a report from
The Wall Street Journal: So far this year there have been 387 confirmed U.S. measles cases,
more than 2018's
full-year total and the second-largest number since the disease was declared eliminated in
2000(Warning: source paywalled; alternative
source ), according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The disease has
spread to 15 states in 2019, with six continuing outbreaks of three or more cases each in
Washington, New York, New Jersey and California. The development has sparked new policies aimed
at boosting inoculation and curbing misinformation about the measles vaccine.
Measles cases have has risen since 2000 as infected travelers bring the disease to the
U.S. Those travelers -- unvaccinated foreign nationals or Americans who become infected abroad
-- have spread the highly contagious disease to others in the U.S. who aren't vaccinated or
hadn't previously had measles. These cases have fueled outbreaks in communities where large
numbers of people haven't been inoculated because of personal or religious exemptions to the
measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. The largest growth in infections since measles was
eliminated totaled 23 outbreaks and 667 cases in 2014. Last year there were 17 outbreaks and
372 confirmed cases. The number of cases in 2019 could increase in the coming months. Measles
is a seasonal disease, with cases rising in late winter and early spring in temperate climates,
according to the World Health Organization.
Is that really true? Country kids are much more likely to be vaccinated than city
kids?
I can't speak for the US, but in Canada it's around 93% rural vaccinated vs 61% urban. Got
a bit different a few years ago when the laws got changed that if you have a kid in public
school they must be vaccinated here in Ontario. There was a huge outbreak of measles and
chickenpox in the Ottawa/Hull area a few years ago, basically one year after the other. Only
13% of the kids were vaccinated, all of their parents worked in government, or education, or
were in various specialty areas relating to government work(NGO's and such). And all of those
kids attended private schools. You can dig up the articles on it from the globe and mail, or
ottawa times if you're really interested in it.
Personally having had chickenpox during the big outbreak back in the 1980's, I sure as
hell wished that the vaccine was covered by OHIP at the time instead of being $400/pop(about
$850 today). Something my parents couldn't afford. Seeing the reactivation of it in shingles
with my grandparents was pretty bad, my one grandmothers reaction was bad enough it put her
into the hospital.
Part of the problem is that vaccines were too successful. Most parents nowadays have no
first hand knowledge of how bad these diseases were. This is a good thing, of course, but it
also means parents can easily assume that a low severity for measles ("you just get a rash
for a week and then you're fine") and other diseases (Whooping cough: "you just cough for a
bit"). Combine this with Internet misinformation inflating the risk of vaccines ("They've got
toxins... TOXINS!!!") and you have a recipe for a bad risk calculation. Sadly, it might take
a few more outbreaks before some parents really get the message that the vaccination risk is
much lower than the disease risk.
Speaking of a sense of proportion.... in the United States you're three times as likely
to die from a shark attack (1 death per year on average) as you are from from the measles
(1 death every 3 years on average from 387 reported measles cases per year).
To put that into further perspective, the U.S. averages
[ufl.edu] 11 deaths from fireworks and 24 from train crashes per year. Death from a literal
lightning strike is 141 times as common than dying from the measles in the United
States.
So let's not overreact quite yet.
Yes, there are things that kill you other than measles. The difference is that measles is
pretty easily preventable - people just have to get vaccinated.
The other issue with measles - and most of the "childhood diseases" - is that they have
other complications besides death.
"About one child out of every 1,000 who get measles will develop encephalitis (swelling of
the brain) that can lead to convulsions and can leave the child deaf or with intellectual
disability."
"Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a very rare, but fatal disease of the
central nervous system that results from a measles virus infection acquired earlier in life.
SSPE generally develops 7 to 10 years after a person has measles, even though the person
seems to have fully recovered from the illness. Since measles was eliminated in 2000, SSPE is
rarely reported in the United States."
In the USA vaccine makers have blanket immunity from lawsuit. You can not sue them due
to harm, vaccine makers have no accountability. If you were a profit making corporation
with no liability for harm, would you maybe give less of a crap sometimes and maybe use the
old familiar trick of adding mercury to boost the vaccine production in some batches?
Maybe, who cares if you did? No one can sue you for damages!
This system was created to insure vaccine makers would continue creating vaccines. It is
fallout from the incident at Cutter labs where their polio vaccine was produced according to
government guidelines but still gave some people polio. The company was sued for negligence
even though they hadn't actually been negligent.
In the USA vaccine makers have blanket immunity from lawsuit.
You misunderstand the law. It's not that they are immune to lawsuits. The government has
assumed the liability.
So you can indeed sue due to vaccine injury. You'll just be suing the government instead
of a corporation.
And you don't actually have to sue. The government set up a vaccine injury program where
you can file a claim and get paid without a lawsuit. You are still free to sue if you'd
like.
Also, the FDA stops a whole lot more vaccines than lawsuits ever could. It's not like
there's nothing between the corporation coming up with something and the free market, as you
imply. And if you want to claim regulatory capture, you'd have to show some vaccines that
would not pass trials yet got released.
use the old familiar trick of adding mercury to boost the vaccine production in some
batches?
:faceplam:
Thiomersal is a preservative. It has nothing do do with boosting production rates. It was
introduced into vaccines in order to let doctors use one vial to treat multiple patients.
Pull out a new, empty syringe, fill it with a dose of vaccine from a vial, give the patient
the shot, toss the syringe. The alternative is syringes pre-loaded with vaccine, which
cost you a lot more money .
Thiomersal is also ethyl-mercury, which you pee out. Not methyl-mercury that stays in your
system. If you want to say something stupid like "it's got mercury so it's all the same!!!"
consider ethanol vs methanol. One will get you drunk. One will kill you very quickly. They're
almost identical. Ethyl-mercury vs methyl-mercury is similar.
So, congrats on making vaccines cost more. Also at a higher profit to "big pharma". Also,
Thiomersal was removed from childhood vaccines in 2000, with no reduction in autism rates, so
you did all this for nothing.
Before you go off half cocked, don't forget, migrants carry disease
Only if the vaccination rate in their country is lower than the vaccination rate in the
US.
And since you're making a very obvious dogwhistle, the vaccination rate in Central and
South American countries is higher than the US.
migrants expose themselves and their new host community to new strains of pathogens
This doesn't matter for the MMR vaccine. The different strains on the planet are still
covered by the vaccine. You need a high-mutation-rate disease like influenza for strains to
be relevant
This shit just makes me shake my head....all the work and effort and time and money that
went into developing vaccines, and these ninnies won't use them.
And it's all because discredited former British doctor (Andrew Wakefield) published a
bullshit medical paper claiming that vaccines were unsafe. That's all it took- the morons and
dumbshits ate it up and stopped vaccinating their children.
The only infectious human disease we have ever eradicated is smallpox, which was
eradicated way back in the 1970s. From an eradication point of view, measles and smallpox are
very similar: they are viruses, they are highly infectious, they do not mutate super-fast,
they infect only humans, it is obvious when someone has the disease, there is a very
effective vaccine. From a technical point of view, eradicating measles is a very similar task
to eradicating smallpox.
However, there is one significant difference: measles is a fairly worrying disease,
whereas smallpox is absolutely terrifying. This means there hasn't been the social and
political will to push an eradication program. If the will did exist, we could wrap it up in
about 10 years (wild guess on my part), and then nobody would ever need a measles vaccination
ever again. Don't like vaccinations? Push for eradication. Your kids will get the jab, but
your grandkids, great-grandkids, etc. forever, will not.
The list of diseases considered eradicable (as of 2008) is quite short. For example,
influenza is not - it readily jumps species (so eradication from humans would require
vaccinating wild ducks, for example) and it mutates rapidly, so new vaccines are constantly
needed.
The list:
[wikipedia.org]
Smallpox (eradicated)
Polio (on the verge of eradication, probably 5 to 10 years off)
Dracunculiasis/Guinea worm (on the verge of eradication)
Yaws (on the verge of eradication)
Malaria (eradication still decades away)
Hookworm
Lymphatic filariasis
Measles
Mumps
Rubella
Lymphatic filariasis
Cysticercosis
A quick check of Clark County, WA, indicates that of 73 cases reported at the time of the
article, 63 were NOT vaccinated, three had had only one vaccination (as opposed to the two
that are standard), and the remaining seven were "vaccination status unknown".
So, I repeat, where is the evidence that "EVERYONE who got the measles had been
vaccinated"? Evidence seems to support at least 90% NOT vaccinated....
There is nothing special in lack of preparedness to a serious epidemic. But it looks like
this epidemics is not that serious.
They were not provided training in safety protocols until five days later, the person
said. That's a classic bureaucratic incompetence. nothing new here. move on.
Posted by msmash on Thursday February 27, 2020 @06:54PM from the
Breaking-news dept. Federal health employees interacted with Americans quarantined for possible
exposure to the coronavirus without
proper medical training or protective gear then scattered into the general population, The
New York Times reported Thursday, citing a government whistle-blower. From the report: In a
portion of a complaint filing obtained by The New York Times that has been submitted to the
Office of the Special Counsel, the whistle-blower, described as a senior leader at the
Department of Health and Human Services, said the team was "improperly deployed" to two
military bases in California to assist the processing of Americans who had been evacuated from
coronavirus hot zones in China and elsewhere.
The staff members were sent to Travis Air Force Base and March Air Reserve Base and were
ordered to enter quarantined areas, including a hangar where coronavirus evacuees were being
received.
They were not provided training in safety protocols until five days later, the person
said.
Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed staff members moved freely
around and off the bases, with at least one person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving
California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperature
three times a dayROTFLMAO (
Score: 2 ) by sit1963nz (
934837 ) on Thursday February 27, 2020 @07:01PM ( #59775768 ) Please
tell the world again how great the USA is, because from the outside you look like fucking
morons.
A new study by Chinese researchers indicates the novel coronavirus may have begun
human-to-human transmission in late November from a place other than the Huanan seafood
market in Wuhan.
The study published on ChinaXiv, a Chinese open repository for scientific researchers,
reveals t he new coronavirus was introduced to the seafood market from another location(s),
and then spread rapidly from the market due to the large number of close contacts. The
findings were the result of analyses of the genome data, sources of infection, and the route
of spread of variations of the novel coronavirus collected throughout China.
The study believes that patient(s) zero transmitted the virus to workers or sellers at the
Huanan seafood market, the crowded market easily facilitating further transmission of the
virus to buyers, which caused a wider spread in early December 2019. (Global Times, February
22, 2020, emphasis added (2)
Chinese medical authorities – and "intelligence agencies" – then conducted a
rapid and wide-ranging search for the origin of the virus, collecting nearly 100 samples of the
genome from 12 different countries on 4 continents, identifying all the varieties and
mutations. During this research, they determined the virus outbreak had begun much earlier,
probably in November, shortly after the Wuhan Military Games.
They then came to the same independent conclusions as the Japanese researchers – that
the virus did not begin in China but was introduced there from the outside.
China's top respiratory specialist Zhong Nanshan said on January 27
"Though the COVID-19 was first discovered in China, it does not mean that it originated
from China"
"But that is Chinese for "it originated someplace else, in another country". (4)
This of course raises questions as to the actual location of origin. If the authorities
pursued their analysis through 100 genome samples from 12 countries, they must have had a
compelling reason to be searching for the original source outside China. This would explain why
there was such difficulty in locating and identifying a 'patient zero'.
Japan's Media: The Coronavirus May Have Originated in the US
In February of 2020, the Japanese Asahi news report (print and TV) claimed the coronavirus originated
in the US, not in China , and that some (or many) of the 14,000 American deaths attributed
to influenza may have in fact have resulted from the coronavirus. (5)
... ... ....
These claims stirred up a hornet's nest not only in Japan but in China,
immediately going viral on Chinese social media, especially since the Military World Games were
held in Wuhan in October, and it had already been widely discussed that the virus could have
been transmitted at that time – from a foreign source.
"Perhaps the US delegates brought the coronavirus to Wuhan, and some mutation occurred to
the virus, making it more deadly and contagious, and causing a widespread outbreak this
year." ( People's Daily , February 23,
2020) (1)
... ... ...
Taiwan Virologist Suggests the Coronavirus Originated in the US
...The basic logic is that the geographical location with the greatest diversity of virus
strains must be the original source because a single strain cannot emerge from nothing. He
demonstrated that only the US has all the five known strains of the virus (while Wuhan and most
of China have only one, as do Taiwan and South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam, Singapore, and
England, Belgium and Germany), constituting a thesis that the haplotypes in other nations may
have originated in the US.
Korea and Taiwan have a different haplotype of the virus than
China, perhaps more infective but much less deadly, which would account for a death rate only
1/3 that of China.
Neither Iran nor Italy were included in the above tests, but both countries have now
deciphered the locally prevalent genome and have declared them of different varieties from
those in China, which means they did not originate in China but were of necessity introduced
from another source. It is worth noting that the variety in Italy has approximately the same
fatality rate as that of China, three times as great as other nations, while the haplotype in
Iran appears to be the deadliest with a fatality rate of between 10% and 25%. (7) (8) (9)
...The Virologist further stated that the US has recently had more than 200 "pulmonary
fibrosis" cases that resulted in death due to patients' inability to breathe, but whose
conditions and symptoms could not be explained by pulmonary fibrosis. He said he wrote articles
informing the US health authorities to consider seriously those deaths as resulting from the
coronavirus, but they responded by blaming the deaths on e-cigarettes, then silenced further
discussion.
The Taiwanese doctor then stated the virus outbreak began earlier than assumed,
saying, "We must look to September of 2019".
He stated the case in September of 2019 where some Japanese traveled to Hawaii and returned
home infected, people who had never been to China. This was two months prior to the infections
in China and just after the CDC suddenly and totally shut down the Fort Detrick bio-weapons lab
claiming the facilities were insufficient to prevent loss of pathogens. (10) (11)
He said he personally investigated those cases very carefully (as did the Japanese
virologists who came to the same conclusion).. This might indicate the coronavirus had already
spread in the US but where the symptoms were being officially attributed to other diseases, and
thus possibly masked. The prominent Chinese
news website Huanqiu related one case in the US where a woman's relative was told by
physicians he died of the flu, but where the death certificate listed the coronavirus as the
cause of death.
Just for information
In the past two years (during the trade war) China has suffered several pandemics:
February 15, 2018: H7N4 bird flu . Sickened at least 1,600 people in China and killed
more than 600. Many chickens killed. China needs to purchase US poultry products.
June, 2018: H7N9 bird flu . Many chickens killed. China needs to purchase US poultry
products.
August, 2018: outbreak of African swine flu . Same strain as Russia, from Georgia.
Millions of pigs killed. China needs to purchase US pork products.
May 24, 2019: massive infestation of armyworms in 14 province-level regions in China,
which destroy most food crops. Quickly spread to more than 8,500 hectares of China's grain
production. They produce astonishing numbers of eggs. China needs to purchase US agricultural
products – corn, soybeans.
December, 2019: Coronavirus appearance puts China's economy on hold.
January, 2020: China is hit by a "highly pathogenic" strain of bird flu in Hunan province
. Many chickens died, many others killed. China needs to purchase US poultry products.
The standard adage is that bad luck happens in threes, not sixes.
***
Note to readers: please click the share buttons above or below. Forward this article to your
email lists. Crosspost on your blog site, internet forums. etc.
Larry Romanoff is a retired management consultant and businessman. He has held senior
executive positions in international consulting firms, and owned an international import-export
business. He has been a visiting professor at Shanghai's Fudan University, presenting case
studies in international affairs to senior EMBA classes. Mr. Romanoff lives in Shanghai and is
currently writing a series of ten books generally related to China and the West. He can be
contacted at: [email protected] . He is a frequent contributor to Global
Research.
What about the WHO's refusal to declare a global pandemic? Maybes Yves can weigh in on the
"pandemic bonds" issued by the World Bank on which investors stand to lose tens of millions
of dollars.
Again, we have to take the Italian figures carefully.
– The population is skewed elderly (I am not saying elderly deaths don't count, I am
saying that the different age structure of the population will produce a different CFR from
China despite the same virus properties).
– The early cluster was of hospital transmission, so a lot of people who were already
sick in hospital for other reasons have died of it
– There have only been one or two deaths of "healthy" patients (the 60 year old doctor
yesterday for example). Same in South Korea, the one 35 year old who died was a Mongolian
health tourist with liver and renal failure in SK for a liver transplant.
I am not minimizing the impact of the virus in S Korea or Italy – we have to take
the population we have, so the CFR will be higher – but the terrible dead/recovered
ratios we are seeing are an artefact of two high income countries with high quality care
which, in normal times, keep alive a lot of frail people, and the excess mortality will be
concentrated in these cohorts – very elderly and serious comorbidities (which are
strongly correlated anyway).
The virus enters in the healthcare systems. Many of these people are going to die in this
epidemic, of competition for resources if not of coronavirus. You could say that COVID-19 is
a disease of weak / dissolute healthcare systems (and by extension governments/polities) and
we are going to find out which national bodies can resist it .
we are seeing are an artifact of two high income countries with high quality care which,
in normal times, keep alive a lot of frail people, and the excess mortality will be
concentrated in these cohorts
"Chinese scientists have now managed to separate some high-quality antibodies"
Besides the rush towards a vaccine this is a required step towards making
serology tests available. It will take some time of course
but it is very encouraging that they've achieved this. In time this might also help explain some things about how the virus seems
to be so tricky to detect very early after infection since when serology becomes available one can compare swabbing and serology
from both suspected cases and those that seem entirely uninfected.
Countries around the world ought to be eager to cooperate closely with and support China and benefit from these efforts but
"our" local politicians seem like they might be too proud or dumb to do so. That could change for the better.
It really seems like a good angle for public health would be prioritizing transmission
risk: a healthy 25 year old working in a restaurant or public school would be worth targeting
from the angle of exposure even if they're not likely to have an especially bad personal
experience.
I'm taking it very seriously, being immunosuppressed due to Chemo.
No more gym, no more broker's meetings, stopped doing volunteer work at the jails after 15
years,Deep cleaned and disinfected my home and vehicle and continue disinfecting doorhandles
etc daily. started shopping a times when stores have few customers, nitrile gloves in public
and thorough handwashing ,
Close to a self quarantine until my immune system recovers.
Unfortunately my Chemo requires a hospital stay of roughly 30 hours and there are four
more to go a month apart, the next one tomorrow, my most likely point of exposure.
And in Singapore (admittedly a best case scenario), there have been 110 total cases. 79
are discharged from hospitals. 33 are still warded of which 7 are in critical condition. No
deaths.
Singapore is the only country in SE Asia where I trust the figures, so I follow them closely. What is impressive is that
they are still quite successful at contact tracing (12 cases only unresolved out of 110) and
the number of clusters is still quite small. Considering they have not closed schools, nor
closed borders (300,000 passages a day), that is quite encouraging. My take is that the virus
can't take the heat, so we really should yearn for summer
A tip of the hat, to Karl Denninger, who I learned the following from .
The sick room of a covid19 patient should always be at negative pressure . This is
especially important in a hospital setting. The air in the sick room (or covid19 wing of the
hospital) should be exhausted to the outside, (but well away from other people). This means
that virus laden air is not forced back, into the rest of the hospital or house by positive
pressure (by conditioned air, blown into the sick room.) This simple tech greatly protects
the uninfected from infection by the virus.
FI, if a covid19 patient is sheltering at home with other, uninfected people in the house;
Put the patient in a sick room with an en suite. Have an exhaust fan in their bedroom window
which sucks the tainted air out of their room and into the outside. or, better yet, up a
chimney (if present).
Also, in Wuhan, the patient's door, into the home, would be sealed with tape, and the
patient would lower a basket on a rope out their window to get food and supplies. Their
rubbish would be double bagged and thrown out the window for collection. This is real
quarantining. So simple, practical and medieval!
Please somebody who has a better grasp of the concept, jump in with a clearer
explanation.
Years ago, people would have open windows and open doors, with a breeze blowing through
the sick room, to clear out air born pathogens bringing in fresh, clean air, which was
already partially sterilized by the UV radiation of the sunlight.
According to
the Guardian , Russia has been targeted by "enemies" spreading fake news about the
coronavirus to sow panic and discord across the country, President Vladimir Putin said:
His remarks came as Russia's communications regulator said it had shut down access to some
social media posts containing falsehoods about the virus outbreak.
"The Federal Security Service reports that they (the fakes) are mainly being organised
from abroad. But unfortunately this always happens to us," Putin said on Wednesday, in
televised remarks at a government meeting.
"The purpose of such fakes is clear: to sow panic among the population."
Reuters reports that a Russian cyber security company, Group-IB, on Monday identified what
it said were thousands of fake news posts on messaging services and social networks such as
Russia's VK alleging that thousands of Muscovites have caught the virus.
China and Korea have done enough testing to come up with a lot of negative tests. This
makes WHO's current interpretation that most COVID-19 cases end up with significant
observable symptoms and that there aren't a lot of undetected cases that just go away without
symptoms credible.
I think it is the long incubation period that throws people for a loop. We are used to
getting exposed and then getting sick within a handful of days. Something that takes a week
to three weeks to create symptoms does not fit well into our brains' acclimation to instant
feedback on everything. This is more of an information exchange using handwritten letters via
US Post than Twitter.
It is also why there is probably a rising issue lurking in the US because it is taking
time to get people who are showing symptoms tested, never mind screening people they may have
been in contact with. By the time they are diagnosed, they could have exposed dozens of
people.
Direct comparison between flu and SARS-CoV2 regarding all aspects from epidemiology to
diagnostics and clinical development is not advisable.
From
EU-CDC : Cases with mild symptoms are numerous and able to transmit the infection.
Cases with mild symptoms are not always aware of their potential infectivity, and some people
with mild symptoms have sought medical care, thereby infecting health care workers;
To be precise:
– WHO rejected the contention there is a large number of unconfirmed mild cases
*outside* Hubei
– WHO confirmed that there are asymptomatic patients, their infectiousness is
unclear.
I would say one point, because I know there will be questions, and I'll stay as long as we
need to try and help with any of those, but one of the big questions that we keep hearing
about is how much transmission is going on in communities? And you keep hearing the tip of
the iceberg, we can't see this thing, there are millions of people infected, etc. So, we
tried to look at those kinds of questions as well. Again, you're at war here and there's a
huge fog in any war. You're trying to find those little bits of information that can add up
and give you some confidence in what you're saying.
We tried to look at where was there sampling of people in the population that might give
us a sense of how widely this virus was spreading? And again, this is where it's great to
look at these things in China because the numbers are so big. But you've probably heard that
there's something called an influenza like illness surveillance system that runs around the
world with many sentinel sites that collect 20 samples every month and we get them analysed.
But this happens in multiple places in China, and what you can do is look at those data and
they can show you, here's our data, our sampling, here's all the flu cases that are coming
up, in November, December of last year, they all went back to look.
Because once we had a COVID-19 test and they went back to test all of these, nobody found
it. It wasn't there. They found lots of flu. But then in January, they did find it, it comes
up in the first couple of weeks in January. But outside of Hubei, very rare. One might be
positive here or one there, it wasn't like all of these samples were positive, like there was
a lot of it circulating. And then another thing we did was in places that were heavily
infected, more and more people were coming to fever clinics and wanted to get tested.
00:49:40
And in one place, it might have been Guangdong, they had tested 320,000 samples for the
COVID virus. 320,000 is going to give you some sense of what's going on. And when they
started the sampling of those, about 0.49% of them were positive, so less than 05%. And in
the recent period, it's something like 0.02%. So, I know everybody has been out there saying,
this thing is spreading everywhere and we just can't see it, tip of the iceberg. But the data
that we do have don't support that. What it supports is sure, there may be a few asymptomatic
cases, and that probably is a real issue, but there's not huge transmission beyond what you
can actually see clinically.
"
So, in Hubei, retrospective testing of flu cases showed up COVID-19 but in Guangdong
large-scale population sampling shows minimal undiagnosed/asymptomatic cases.
And here is the transcript on asymptomatic cases (from the WHO press conference in China
the previous night):
"
[Liang Wannian speaking for China National Health Commisson]
The proportions of mild, severe, and critically ill patients are about 80%,
13%, and 6%, respectively. Some asymptomatic patients have been found. However,
whether such cases are patients with asymptomatic infections or carriers whose virus is
still in the incubation period warrants further study. It is unclear whether the
asymptomatic carriers can also spread the disease."
I did a rough estimate of SK figures assuming around 10 days lag (just a guess), and I
came up with just over 1%. The problem they face is that the overall numbers now are
manageable in hospitals. What happens when they run out of respirators and isolation wards? I
would expect death rates to climb significantly. Also I think early mortality rates are
likely to be very dependent on the population cohort hit first – we've seen how in
Italy it spiked dearly because it seems to have hit a major hospital first. In SK, its mostly
older churchgoers, but from what I've seen, older right wing xtian South Koreans are a hardy
bunch.
Silver linings – yes, CO2 levels are dropping, and this may even be long term. A lot
of older foundries and power stations may not be worth restarting once they go cold. This may
fundamentally change the world travel market, especially if the airlines take a serious hit
which would stop them from investing in more capacity. I doubt if there is much appetite at
government level for supporting big airlines. Boeing is toast, which might fundamentally
reduce production capacity. It may even lead to the closure of coal mines and oil/gas
fields.
"... The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is not billing patients for coronavirus testing, according to Business Insider . "But there are other charges you might have to pay, depending on your insurance plan, or lack thereof," Business Insider noted. "A hospital stay in itself could be costly and you would likely have to pay for tests for other viruses or conditions." ..."
"... Congress needs to immediately pass a bill appropriating funding to cover 100% of the cost of all coronavirus testing & care within the United States. We will not have a chance at containing it otherwise. @tedlieu - as my rep, can you please ensure this is brought up? ..."
"... In the case of the Wucinskis, Kliff reported that "the ambulance company that transported [them] charged the family $2,598 for taking them to the hospital." ..."
"... Last week, the Miami Herald reported that Osmel Martinez Azcue "received a notice from his insurance company about a claim for $3,270" after he visited a local hospital fearing that he contracted coronavirus during a work trip to China. ..."
"... Did anyone expect the unconscionable greed of capitalism to cease when a public health crisis emerges? This is just testing for the virus, wait until a vaccine has been developed so expensive that the majority of the US populace can not afford it at all and people are dropping like flies. Wall Street, never-the-less, will continue to have its heydays ..."
"... The very idea that the defense and "Homeland" security budgets are bloated and additional funding approved year after year but the citizens of this country are not afforded 100% health coverage In a time of global health crisis that could become a pandemic. ..."
"Huge surprise medical bills [are] going to make sure people with symptoms don't get tested. That is bad for everyone." by
Jake Johnson, staff writer Public health
advocates, experts, and others are demanding that the federal government cover coronavirus testing and all related costs after several
reports detailed how Americans in recent weeks have been saddled with exorbitant bills following medical evaluations.
Sarah Kliff of the New York Times
reported Saturday
that Pennsylvania native Frank Wucinski "found a pile of medical bills" totaling $3,918 waiting for him and his three-year-old daughter
after they were released from government-mandated quarantine at Marine Corps Air Station in Miramar, California.
"My question is why are we being charged for these stays, if they were mandatory and we had no choice in the matter?" asked Wucinski,
who was evacuated by the U.S. government last month from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak.
"I assumed it was all being paid for," Wucinski told the Times . "We didn't have a choice. When the bills showed up, it was just
a pit in my stomach, like, 'How do I pay for this?'"
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is not billing patients for coronavirus testing,
according
to Business Insider . "But there are other charges you might have to pay, depending on your insurance plan, or lack thereof,"
Business Insider noted. "A hospital stay in itself could be costly and you would likely have to pay for tests for other viruses or
conditions."
Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, told the Times that
"the most important rule of public health is to gain the cooperation of the population."
"There are legal, moral, and public health reasons not to charge the patients,"
Gostin said.
Congress needs to immediately pass a bill appropriating funding to cover 100% of the cost of all coronavirus testing & care
within the United States. We will not have a chance at containing it otherwise.
@tedlieu - as my rep, can you please ensure this
is brought up?
In the case of the Wucinskis, Kliff reported that "the ambulance company that transported [them] charged the family $2,598
for taking them to the hospital."
"An additional $90 in charges came from radiologists who read the patients' X-ray scans and do not work for the hospital," Kliff
noted.
The CDC declined to respond when Kliff asked whether the federal government would cover the costs for patients like the Wucinskis.
The Intercept 's Robert Mackey
wrote
last Friday that the Wucinskis' situation spotlights "how the American government's response to a public health emergency, like trying
to contain a potential coronavirus epidemic, could be handicapped by relying on a system built around private hospitals and for-profit
health insurance providers."
We should be doing everything we can to encourage people with
#COVIDー19 symptoms to come forward.
Huge surprise medical bills is going to make sure people with symptoms don't get tested. That is bad for everyone, regardless
of if you are insured. https://t.co/KOUKTSFVzD
Play this tape to the end and you find people not going to the hospital even if they're really sick. The federal government
needs to announce that they'll pay for all of these bills https://t.co/HfyBFBXhja
Last week, the Miami Herald reported
that Osmel Martinez Azcue "received a notice from his insurance company about a claim for $3,270" after he visited a local hospital
fearing that he contracted coronavirus during a work trip to China.
"He went to Jackson Memorial Hospital, where he said he was placed in a closed-off room," according to the Herald . "Nurses
in protective white suits sprayed some kind of disinfectant smoke under the door before entering, Azcue said. Then hospital staff
members told him he'd need a CT scan to screen for coronavirus, but Azcue said he asked for a flu test first."
Azcue tested positive for the flu and was discharged. "Azcue's experience shows the potential cost of testing for a disease
that epidemiologists fear may develop into a public health crisis in the U.S.," the Herald noted.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, highlighted Azcue's case in a tweet last Friday.
"The coronavirus reminds us that we are all in this together," Sanders wrote. "We cannot allow Americans to skip doctor's visits
over outrageous bills. Everyone should get the medical care they need without opening their wallet -- as a matter of justice and
public health."
Last week, as Common Dreams
reported , Sanders argued that the coronavirus outbreak demonstrates the urgent need for Medicare for All.
The coronavirus reminds us that we are all in this together. We cannot allow Americans to skip doctor's visits over outrageous
bills.
Everyone should get the medical care they need without opening their wallet -- as a matter of justice and public health.
https://t.co/c4WQMDESHU
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S.
surged by more than two
dozen over the weekend, bringing the total to 89 as the Trump administration continues to
publicly downplay the severity of the outbreak.
Dr. Matt McCarthy, a staff physician at NewYork–Presbyterian Hospital,
said
in an appearance on CNBC 's "Squawk Box" Monday morning that testing for the coronavirus is still not widely available.
"Before I came here this morning, I was in the emergency room seeing patients," McCarthy said. "I still do not have a rapid
diagnostic test available to me."
"I'm here to tell you, right now, at one of the busiest hospitals in the country, I don't have it at my finger tips," added
McCarthy. "I still have to make my case, plead to test people. This is not good. We know that there are 88 cases in the United
States. There are going to be hundreds by middle of week. There's going to be thousands by next week. And this is a testing issue."
Our work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 License. Feel free to republish and share widely.
Did anyone expect the unconscionable greed of capitalism to cease when a public health crisis emerges? This is just testing
for the virus, wait until a vaccine has been developed so expensive that the majority of the US populace can not afford it at
all and people are dropping like flies. Wall Street, never-the-less, will continue to have its heydays
A wall street bank or private predator may own your emergency room. A surprise bill may await your emergency treatment above
insurance payments or in some instances all of the bill.
An effort was made recently in congress to stop surprise billings but enough dems joined repubs to kill it. More important
to keep campaign dollars flowing than keep people alive.
fernSmerl 12h I know emergency rooms are being purchased by organizations like Tenet (because they are some of
the most expensive levels of care) and M.D.s provided by large agencies. I'm not as up on this as I should be but a friend of
mine tells me that some of this is illegal. I have received bills that were later discharged by challenge. This is worth investigating
further. Atlasoldie 11h Hmmmm A virus that
overwhelmingly kills the elderly and/or those with pre-exisitng conditions.
Sounds like a medical insurance companies wet dream. As well as .gov social security/medicare wet dream.
The very idea that the defense and "Homeland" security budgets are bloated and additional funding approved year after year
but the citizens of this country are not afforded 100% health coverage In a time of global health crisis that could become a pandemic.
And as has been stated, the unconscionable idea suggested that a possible vaccine (a long way away or perhaps not developed at
all) might not be affordable to the workers who pay the taxes that fund the government? That's insane.
Another example of "American Exceptionalism." China doesn't charge its coronavirus patients, neither does South Korea. I guess
they are simply backward countries.
I own my own home after years of hard work paying it off. It's the only thing of value, besides my old truck, that I have.
If I get the virus, I will stay home and try to treat it the best I can. I can't afford to go to the hospital and pay thousands in
medical bills, with the chance that they'll come after my possessions. America, the land of the _______. Fill in the blank. (Hint:
it's no longer free).
There are other ways to protect your home. Homesteading or living trust. I'm not good at this but I know there are ways to
do it. Hopefully, it would never come to that but outcomes are not certain even with treatment in this case.
As someone
who lost a mother at 5 years old I can sympathize with your grief in losing a daughter-in-law and especially seeing her four children
orphaned. However, I think you miss the point here: This is about we becoming a society invested in each others welfare and not a
company town that commodifies everything including the health and well being of us all.
As a revision it is better but flawed. It is a cost containment bill based on the same research as the republican plan with global
budgets and block grants.
Edited: I encourage you to read this: -ttps://www.rand.org/blog/2018/10/misconceptions-about-medicare-for-all.html Giovanna-Lepore10h oldie:
Part D
Higher education is not free but they do need to become free for the students and payed by us as a society.
Part D is a scam, a Republican scam also supported by corporate democrats because of its profit motive and its privatization
Medicare only covers 80% and does not cover eye and dental care and older folks especially need these services. Medicaid helps but there are limits and one cannot necessarily use it where one needs to go.
Expanded, Improved Medicare For All is a vast improvement. because it covers everyone in one big pool and, therefore, much more dignified
than the rob Paul to pay peter system we have.
Social Security too can be improved. Why should it simply be based on the income of the person which means that a person working
in a low paying job in a capitalist system gone wild with greed will often work until they die.
Pell grants can be eliminated when we have what the French have: publicly supported education for everyone.
The demise of unions certainly did not help but it was part of the long strategy of the Right to privatize everything to the enrichment
of the few.
The overall competence that Canada is handling this outbreak, compared to the USA, is stark. First world (Canada) versus third-world
(USA). Testing is practically available for free, to any suspect person, sick or not, as Toronto alone can run 1000 tests a day and
have results in 4 hours. That is far more than all the US's capacity for 330 million people.
I wonder how long before Canada closes its borders to USAns? Me and my wife (both in a vulnerable age/medical group) should seriously
consider fleeing to my brother's place in Toronto as the first announced cases in Pittsburgh are probably only days away. What about
our poor cat though? We could try to smuggle her across the border, but she is a loud and talkative kitty
Don't want to discourage anyone from any protective measures – but the
"low down" from my veggie store today was that a lot of health professionals
shop there and they think it's being hyped by media. Did get this from my NJ Sen. Menendez –
Center for Disease and Control and Prevention (CDC)
There is currently no vaccine to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The best way to prevent illness is to avoid being
exposed to this virus. However, everyday preventive actions can help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases:
Wash your hands often
Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
Stay home when you are sick.
Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
For more information : htps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention-treatment.html
How it spreads : The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person. It may be possible that a person can get
COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their
eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads. [Read more.] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html )
Symptoms : For confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, reported illnesses have ranged from mild symptoms to
severe illness and death. Symptoms can include fever, cough, and shortness of breath.
Don't want to discourage anyone from any protective measures – but the
"low down" from my veggie store today was that a lot of health professionals
shop there and they think it's being hyped by media.
I agree it is being hyped by the media to the point of being fear mongering. At the same time it is being ignored by the administration to such an extent that really little almost nothing is being done. At some point the two together will create an even bigger problem.
It is like the old adage: "Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you." Each over/under reach in considering the reality of the situation has its own problem, which multiply when combined. Every morning when I wake up I say a little atheistic prayer to myself before I get out of bed: "Another day and for better or
worse...".
Well, two reported here in Florida tonight. One in my county, one in the county next door. And more of the "we already knew, but told you late". One person checked into the hospital on Wednesday. We hear it Monday night.
Both were ignored far a long time it seems, and 84 in particular are being watched (roommates, friends, hospital workers not alerted
for several days, the usual). But no one knows every place they had been since becoming infected.
Oh, and they have tested a handful of people. No worry?
I can't see anyway that this level of incompetency is an accident. Spring break is just starting usually a 100's of thousand tourist
bonanza.
So the question is do they want to kill us, or just keep us in fear?
I think the later. But the end result is a crap shoot. So once again, it is a gamble with our lives.
The business of America is business. Sometimes that can go too far and this is one of those times. Making money from the loss,
distress, harm and suffering of others is perverse beyond belief.
An excellent, if technical video from 27 Feb. The speaker is a HK Chinese (English speaking)
Epidemiologist.
He point out "family clustering" of Chinese cases and most cases originating from Hubey
province, not local clusters. He also pointed out the Wuhan has large cluster of old
population.
When it comes to estimating mortality, I think it's helpful to keep in in mind the concept
of multiple tiers and required care at each tier. My numbers here are very roughly derived
from case report data from a handful of sources. Uncertainties are large here, and I mostly
just want to illustrate the point.
First, we are told that around 80% of cases are "mild". Mild means that they don't require
hospitalization to recover. That's "tier zero" as it requires no significant health-care
resources.
About 20% of cases, require a hospital bed and supplemental oxygen. About 3 in 4 of these
cases (15% of total) recover without additional measures, and these "serious" cases make up
"tier one".
This implies about 5% of cases need mechanical ventilation. About 3 in 4 of these cases
(3.75% of total) will recover without additional measures, and these "severe" cases make up
"tier two". About 1.25% of cases need extreme measures that can only be delivered in highly
equipped ICUs.
About 3 in 4 of these cases will survive (although they can tie up other hospital
resources for many weeks), and these "critical" cases make up "tier three".
Finally, even with all resources brought to bear, some small fraction of cases (like
0.3%???) still die anyway ("tier 4").
Like I said, all these numbers are uncertain, but you can see how resource shortages at
each tier are likely to impact mortality variance from region-to-region, and how reducing the
spread of the disease through containment measures can make a huge impact on the number of
lives lost. Of course if the whole point is to keep the hospitals from overflowing, whatever
containment measures are necessary are likely to have to remain in place for a long time with
such a contagious disease. This means that the knock-on effects of such policies (i.e., a
cratering of economic demand in the services) are likely to be more severe. What a nasty
trade-off!
IMO, it may be time for helicopter money in addition to NDMS health-care. And someone
should figure out how to accurately test for immunity so that people who are (hopefully)
already immune can be recruited rapidly for jobs that are high risk.
China epidemic subside -- only 119 additional cases. That's compared with 125 additional
cases and 31 new deaths the previous day. The new cases bring the total number of mainland cases
to 80,270 and death toll at 2,871. In a couple of months China part of epidemic probably will be
over.
Isolating seniors who are at risk is a very reasonable measure. Should probably be
implemented in all areas with high number of infections.
On the bright side there is now an indirect evidence that summer weather slows the virus down
.
New York has reported its third case: the son, wife and daughter of an infected
Westchester County lawyer have been diagnosed with the virus
Italy will ban public events, and close cinemas and theaters even though the government
denied an earlier ANSA report that the country would also close schools & universities
momentarily
Italy urges elderly people to stay indoors if possible
Ecaudor confirms 3 new cases, raising total to 10
German finance minister declares outbreak "a global pandemic"
... ... ...
Israel urges people to stop shaking hands, will quarantine travelers from most of
Europe
EU reports a second coronavirus case at its headquarters in Brussels
France has reported 45 new coronavirus cases, bringing the total to 257
UK cases surge by 34 to a total of 85 - a 66% surge.
China reported 119 additional coronavirus cases and 38 additional deaths
South Korea reported 809 additional coronavirus cases and 4 additional deaths
For apples to apples, I think one needs to look at end states of all patients infected at
the same time; one doesn't have this and so the ratio evolves as end states are reached.
Also, in early stages of an epidemic, incidence is rising and if mortalities occur quicker
than recoveries (as appears to be the case in this epidemic), the #died/(#died + #recovered)
can be extremely high at first.
In China, in both Hubei and "all China other than Hubei", this ratio has been declining
day by day since Feb 17 (for Hubei) and Feb 19 (for China ex Hubei), ie since the
first day I have been tracking the daily JHU CSSE numbers for the respective regions.
China ex Hubei is (assuming the reported numbers are accurate), as of late 3/3, at 0.96%,
with about 1500 unresolved cases (of 11300 total cases) and almost no new fatalities in
recent days. I think this gives a plausible guess at a final ratio of around 0.8% if all
future outcomes of the current cases in this region were known. But that was with very
aggressive containment measures. One would be justified to wonder whether there is sufficient
will to do this in US.
--
It would be very helpful, I think, to know whether, or the extent to which, "smoking" is a
prior condition that predisposes patients to more severe respiratory complications. China
consumes a lot of tobacco products. There appears to be a very high prevalence of smoking in
China.
Estimating mortality is quite complicated. Given the rapid progress of infection the (not
accumulated but current) casualties have not to be compared with current confirmed cases but
with the number of infected about 7-10 days ago, which is not exactly the same as confirmed
one week ago. Even in SK because they have different rules for testing are detecting many
more cases than elsewhere, there are almost certainly many undetected infections and there
are also some unknown numbers of let's call them atypical infections.
Yes, you made reasonable corrections/clarifications. Thank you !
That said, the number of identified non-Chinese cases looks to be doubling every two
weeks or so. That'll be a big deal soon unless we can bend the curve through large
scale action like in China, or the dynamics change as the weather gets warmer (sorry
southern hemisphere ).
I agree then 20% susceptibility is probably too optimistic. It is interesting that
susceptibility of medical personal exposed to patients in Wuhan is over 50%. And that are
people with well trained immune system.
Health care personnel infected
◦3.8% (1716 of 44 672)
◦63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716)
◦14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668)
◦5 deaths
So my 20% figure is definitely suspect.
At the same time doubling each two weeks for the initial stages of epidemic is what
you can expect in any flu epidemics.
The situation in the USA complicated by the fact the people are pushed coming to work
even with slight flu symptoms.
Also healthcare is weakened by neoliberal healthcare and dominance of the private
equity sharks in emergency rooms.
For all practical purposes I would classify the situation in the USA as similar to the
situations in the third world countries. And that will increase the cost and duration of
the epidemic considerably.
Much depends on availability of a reliable and free test. Currently the test cost
money and that greatly complicates the situation in the USA increasing the number of
infections and prolonging its duration. Probably considerably unless God and spring help
us.
Last week, the Miami Herald reported that Osmel Martinez Azcue "received a notice from
his insurance company about a claim for $3,270" after he visited a local hospital fearing
that he contracted coronavirus during a work trip to China.
If test cost money, that will also help to kill more old and infirm ("disaster
capitalism" in action). which could be saved if intervention come on easily stages of the
disease (this is just a virus pneumonia after all)
And the private equity sharks with their exorbitant ambulance and emergency room
changes need to be put in place and limited to what Medicare pays.
Sarah Kliff of the New York Times reported Saturday that Pennsylvania native Frank
Wucinski "found a pile of medical bills" totaling $3,918 waiting for him and his
three-year-old daughter after they were released from government-mandated quarantine at
Marine Corps Air Station in Miramar, California.
In the case of the Wucinskis, Kliff reported that "the ambulance company that
transported [them] charged the family $2,598 for taking them to the hospital."
So hopefully Congress will provide emergency funding for that. We are wasting so much
money of homeland security that I would take those money from them.
"... The latest FluView surveillance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that as of January 18, 2020, there have been 15 million cases of flu, 140,000 hospitalizations, and 8200 deaths in the US this influenza season. (emphasis added) ..."
The media hype and disinformation campaign regarding the spread of the COVID-19 novel
coronavirus have created a Worldwide atmosphere of fear and uncertainty following the launching
of a global public health emergency by the WHO on January 30th.
The fear campaign is ongoing. Panic and uncertainty. National governments and the WHO are
misleading the public.
"About 84,000 people in at least 56 countries have been infected, and about 2,900 have died"
says the New York Times. What they fail to mention is that 98% of those cases of infection are
in Mainland China. There are less than 5000 confirmed cases outside China. (WHO, February 28,
2020)
While COVID-19 is a matter of Public Health concern, at the moment, there is no real
pandemic outside Mainland China. Look at the figures.
At the time of writing, the number of "confirmed cases" in the US was 64.
The latest FluView surveillance from the
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that as of January 18, 2020,
there have been 15 million cases of flu, 140,000 hospitalizations, and 8200 deaths in the US
this influenza season. (emphasis added)
Data on the COVID-19 pandemic:
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on February 28, 2020 83,652 confirmed cases of
COV-19 of which 78,961 are in Mainland China. Outside China, there are 4691 "confirmed cases"
(WHO, February 28, 2020, See table on right).
The WHO has also reported 2,791 deaths of which only 67 have occurred outside Mainland China
.
These figures confirm that the pandemic is largely limited to Mainland China.
Moreover, recent data suggests that the epidemic in China is firmly under control. On
February 21, 2020, China's National Health Commission reported that 36.157 patients were
designated as cured and discharged from hospital. (see graph below).
Chinese reports confirm that people have received treatment and are recovering from the
virus infection. Concurrently, the number of infected patients is declining.
According to the National Medical Products Administration of China, hospitals are using
Favilavir, an anti-viral drug, "as a treatment for coronavirus with minimal side effects".
.
Lets Crunch the Numbers
The World Population is of the order of 7.8 billion.
The population of China is of the order of 1.4 billion.
The World population minus China is of the order of 6.4 billion.
4691 confirmed cases and 67 reported deaths (outside China) out of a population of 6.4
billion does not constitute a pandemic. 4691/6,4oo,ooo,ooo =0.00000073 = 0.000073 %
64 cases in the US which has a population of approximately 330 million is not a pandemic.
(Feb 28 data): 64/330,000,000 = 0.00000019 = 0.000019 %
Why the Propaganda? Racism directed against Ethnic Chinese
A campaign against China was launched, a wave of racist sentiment against ethnic Chinese is
ongoing largely led by the Western media.
The Economist reports that "The coronavirus spreads racism against -- and among -- ethnic
Chinese"
Fear of covid-19 makes people behave badly, including some Chinese
"Britain's Chinese community faces racism over coronavirus outbreak"
according to the SCMP
"Chinese communities overseas are increasingly facing racist abuse and discrimination amid
the coronavirus outbreak. Some ethnic Chinese people living in the UK say they experienced
growing hostility because of the deadly virus that originated in China."
And this phenomenon is happening all over the U.S.
Economic Warfare against China
US strategies consist in using COVID-19 to isolate China, despite the fact that the US
economy is heavily dependent upon Chinese imports.
The short-term disruption of the Chinese economy is largely attributable to the (temporary)
closing down of the channels of trade and transportation.
The WHO Global Public Health emergency is coupled with media disinformation and the freezing
of air travel to China.
Panic on Wall Street
Spearheaded by media disinformation, there is another dimension. Panic in the stock
markets.
The Coronavirus fear has triggered the drop of financial markets Worldwide.
According to reports, roughly $6 trillion have been wiped off the value of stock markets
Worldwide. The decline in stock market values so far is of the order of "15 percent or
more".
Massive losses of personal savings (e.g. of average Americans) have occurred not to mention
corporate failures and bankruptcies.
It's a bonanza for institutional speculators including corporate hedge funds. The financial
meltdown has led to sizeable transfers of money wealth into the pockets of a handful of
financial institutions.
In a bitter irony, analysts in chorus have casually linked the market collapse to the
escalation of the coronavirus at a time when there was less than 64 confirmed cases in the
US.
It's not surprising that the market went down because the virus has gotten so expanded.
'
Was it Possible to "Predict" the February Financial Crash?
It would be naive to believe that the financial crisis was solely the consequence of
spontaneous market forces, responding to the COVID-19 outbreak. The market was carefully
manipulated by powerful actors using speculative instruments in the market for derivatives,
including "short-selling". Media disinformation on the "escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic
certainly played a role.
... ... ...
Timeline
October 18, 2019 : The B. and M. Gates Foundation and the WEF were partners in the John
Hopkins National Security October 2019 nCoV-2019 Pandemic "Simulation Exercise".
December 31, 2019 China alerted WHO to several cases of "unusual pneumonia" in Wuhan, Hubei
province.
January 7 , 2020 Chinese officials announced they had identified a new virus, The novel
virus was named by the WHO 2019-nCoV ( exactly the same name as the virus pertaining to the
John Hopkins simulation exercise, with the exception of the placement of the date).
January 24, 25, 2020: Meeting at Davos, under the auspices of CEPI which is also a WEF-Gates
partnership, the development of a 2019 nCoV vaccine was announced. (2 weeks after the January
7, 2020 announcement, and barely a week prior to the launching of the WHO's Worldwide Public
Health emergency).
January 30th, 2020 , WHO Director General announces the "Public Health Emergency of
International Concern (PHEIC).
Meanwhile, the Italian government is about to release a series of recommendations to try to
halt the coronavirus outbreak,
the Guardian reports.
The tips are contained in a document issued by the the country's scientific committee that
will be released within the next few hours. They include:
Social distancing : remaining away from crowded environments and maintaining a distance of
two meters from other people; especially within enclosed spaces.
Greetings: avoiding kisses and hugs when greeting people.
Elderly population: people older than 75 years with underlying health conditions are
advised to remain at home and avoid social events.
.... ... ...
The death toll from Covid-19 in Italy has risen to 79 and confirmed cases to 2.263, the
emergency commissioner and civil protection chief Angelo Borrelli has said.
If you're infected, what would be the typical experience you'd go through? A lot has been
said on prevention but less so on treatment. level 2 PercyXLee 313 points ·
8 hours ago · edited 2 hours ago
There's is no treatment at the moment. (In fact, there's very little treatment for viruses
in general). The virus is brand new and nobody has any clue about it.
You go through a typical flu symptom if you're infected. For most healthy and young people,
that's all. Severe symptoms need to be put on oxygen to help breathing.
Don't try to self diagnose and take drugs if you believe you have it. It could mess up your
immune system and make you more vulnerable. Maintain a healthy diet and sleep is important.
Info from news and youtube channels hosted by doctors.
Edit: since there are a lot of arguments over the definition of "treatment", i should
clarity that in the sentence, "treatment" did not include supportive care, treatments of
secondary infections, and experimental clinic trial being conducted. Divesto 6 points ·
7 hours ago
What if hospital beds fill up and we need to? Is dayquil/nyquil, advil going to be worth
anything at all if we can't get into a hospital and need to self quarantine? Pedialyte? level 4
bronsteezy 4 points
·
5 hours ago
I'm not a medical worker so I can't commeny on the fever reducers. Pedialyte (or just google
how much salt and sugar to mix in water to get an optimal ORS) is absolutely needed if you're
self quarantining because fluid replenishment is essential for any condition that causes
sweating (in this case, the cause is a fever) or diarrhea or other water loss like frequent
urination. Just drinking water is not as effective, as your kidneys will excrete a larger
portion of it, whereas higher-than-optimal molarity drinks like Gatorade can cause stomach
upset. artgo 62 points
·
8 hours ago
There's is no treatment at the moment.
You seem to be using the word "treatment" in a way that distorts things. Do you mean "cure"
or "vaccine"?
There are lots of treatments for flu symptoms. They don't remove the flu, but they can make
the experience more tolerable. level 4 PercyXLee 73 points ·
7 hours ago
I'm using treatment as in any medical procedures that could help with recovery/survival. I
don't consider symptom relief drugs "treatments", because they only make the experience more
tolerable. (Notice most OTC flu drugs would only claim to be "Rapid Relief" or similar)
"Vaccine" is not a treatment, it is a preventative measure.
"Cure" is too strong of a word choice. Antibiotics are cures for bacterial infections.
But
Low grade fever, yes. Over reactions from immune system can kill you too. But it could be
complicated so if it the symptoms are severe you need to see a doctor.
1. The World Bank announced Tuesday afternoon that it would fund an initial $12
billion in financing to combat the Covid-19 outbreak that is threatening to plunge the
global economy into recession
"Does this virus have pandemic potential? Absolutely, it has. Are we there yet? From
our assessment, not yet," Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told journalists
in Geneva.
He explained that the decision to use the word 'pandemic' is based on an ongoing
assessment of the geographical spread of the virus, the severity of disease it causes,
and the impact on society.
" For the moment, we are not witnessing the uncontained global spread of this
virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale severe disease or death ," he said,
adding that what is occurring is coronavirus epidemics in different parts of the world,
which are affecting countries differently.
3. US government: administration has shifted from a strategy of prevention to
containment, recommending that labs test any suspect patients, even if connections to
other patients are not clear.
the nation's public health labs could run up to 10,000 tests per day by the end of
the week, according to figures provided by the Associated of Public Health
Laboratories.
"... I have been a physician now for almost 30 years. It has been a career spanning the very end of the "Marcus Welby" era, and then piece by piece the complete dismantling of the medical profession by the insurance companies and now "non-profit" corporations. When I was young, the leadership structure in the hospitals was completely and utterly controlled by three groups: the physicians, the nurses, and in the case of Catholic hospitals, the church and the nuns, or in non-Catholic hospitals, philanthropic community leaders. ..."
"... There were no four-star mahogany and marble lobbies. There were no 2 million dollar annual salaries for the hospital CEOs. There were no non-profit corporate boards extracting every bit of wealth from the patients to maintain multimillion dollar salaries for the board members and the middle managers. ..."
"... In further conversation, the doctor said that we should be thinking about a world in which a large number of health care workers can't come to work because they are in quarantine or sick with the virus. We are looking at this problem right now. ..."
Read
the whole thread. His basic point is that the US Government did not want to see data that
would indicate community transmission, so it didn't look for that. What do you think? I'm
especially interested in what medical professionals in this blog's readership have to say.
I received this e-mail from Wyoming Doc a couple of days ago, and have his permission to
post it:
I have just learned of the first Coronavirus Death in the USA. It is now getting real.
I would point you to the following links -- I am seeing myself -- but to a greater degree
hearing about rather concerning things happening in our hospitals across the country.
The first is this video:
I would start first with a little background. I have been a physician now for almost 30
years. It has been a career spanning the very end of the "Marcus Welby" era, and then piece
by piece the complete dismantling of the medical profession by the insurance companies and
now "non-profit" corporations. When I was young, the leadership structure in the hospitals
was completely and utterly controlled by three groups: the physicians, the nurses, and in the
case of Catholic hospitals, the church and the nuns, or in non-Catholic hospitals,
philanthropic community leaders.
The focus at the time was mostly on taking care of the most patients the best that could
be done in a compassionate way with the resources available. And believe it or not, in my
opinion, the care that was given in that time was far superior than what is going on now. The
leaders of the hospitals were community leaders, and so was the medical and the nursing
staff. To put it succinctly: they cared about their neighbors. Many, many nights while on
call I would see the nuns right along side the nurses and physicians working themselves to
death to take care of sick patients. These hospitals were never in debt -- the resources and
the donations coming in were used for the expenses going out. There were no four-star
mahogany and marble lobbies. There were no 2 million dollar annual salaries for the hospital
CEOs. There were no non-profit corporate boards extracting every bit of wealth from the
patients to maintain multimillion dollar salaries for the board members and the middle
managers.
When I was a young medical student, a very old professor taught a course in medical
ethics. In one of his most pressing lectures, he discussed the fact that the goals and ideals
of medicine and public health were a complete 180 degrees from the wants and desires of a
free market. He added that every time combining public health/medicine and free markets had
been tried in history it ended in tears -- usually bankrupting the society. It was his
fervent desire that we not allow this to happen to the profession as we entered its ranks,
and to keep an eye out for this at all times.
Well, as everyone knows by now, his worst fears have been realized. Many, probably not
most, members of my profession -- especially the procedure-based specialists and surgeons --
in the past 10-15 years have completely lost sight of the public well-being. Their sights are
now on lucre. The one desire for many of them has been how to make more money more quickly.
They have been aided and abetted by the governing agencies and Boards of all the various
medical specialties. These national leadership organizations have made all the activities of
being a physician so onerous and the billing so difficult that the vast majority of
physicians have no choice but to become employees of these mega-corporations. The physicians
have made a deal to take a back seat to these "businessmen" to keep the cash coming. The
leadership of our hospital systems are no longer physicians, nurses, nuns, and
philanthropists. Nope –it is all MBA all the time. Even the physicians who are
nominally in charge -- ie the ubiquitous Chief Medical Officers of the corporations -- do not
get considered for the jobs unless they have an MBA after their name. And the credentialing
of the leadership teams are just absolutely ridiculous. Look at the websites of your local
hospital and its leadership. It is usual to see things like this: John Doe, MD MBA FACP
PhD FACC. The non-MD credentialing is even more hilarious -- I have no idea what 95% of
these abbreviations mean -- but they have to puff themselves up anyway. The hubris and the
arrogance would be hilarious, but now the crisis is upon us.
About 10-15 years ago, the change began in earnest. One by one, the physicians in charge
were replaced with MBA bureaucrats. The usual committee structure in the hospital --
"Pharmacy & Therapeutics", "Patient Care Committee" etc -- had their physicians, nurses
and pharmacists replaced with bureaucrats. Some of these bureaucrats were MDs and RNs -- the
paycheck was awesome -- and they turned their backs on their duties and their colleagues and
patients on the ground to keep the cash coming. I even lived to see the day when one of my
hospitals fired the MD and RN leadership of the Medical Ethics Committee and replaced them
with an MBA.
Suddenly, the only ethical thing to do was whatever was needed to maximize cash flow. And
any MD or RN who did not like it? Well, you're fired -- see you later. We began to completely
corporatize medical care. Advertisements and billboards everywhere, customer service feedback
surveys flowing in the mail, the list is endless. Public health concerns began to be confined
strictly to things that would boost revenue: colonoscopies, mammograms, labs, vaccinations,
bone density studies, etc. Things that have no revenue flow -- like mental health issues,
opioid abuse, elder care -- well, who cares about that? Very soon, the hospitals began to
merge into gigantic corporations and then they began to collude to control the health care
costs in the community. Our health care systems in all our big cities are gigantic
monopolies. This despite the fact that this kind of behaviour is illegal under federal
statutes. And please note: this is why insurance costs are so enormously high in this country
-- and getting higher every year. Obamacare did NOTHING to stop this; it actually in many
ways has made it much easier to pull off.
Because of this situation and for many other reasons, I decided to make a change in my
life a few years ago. I have now moved to a very small hospital in rural America. In my life
now, the corporate board has now been replaced by a board elected by the taxpayers: they are
truly leaders of the community and do everything in the spirit of what the people need and
are counting on from their hospital. The hospital is led by an MD -- and there are
administrators -- but they too are members of the community. There is an obvious care about
the community and its needs. I have spoken to colleagues across the country this week -- some
big hospitals have done nothing at all to prepare for the crisis. It is no surprise to me
that people in all levels at my current hospital have gone to enormous lengths to make sure
everyone here is ready to go. I feel like I have stepped back in time twenty years. It is a
very good feeling.
In the big city, I had become very accustomed to going to important meetings in the
hospitals -- all controlled by the business leadership now -- and no medical facts or issues
being discussed at all. Anything medical is distilled down to number crunching, revenue
cycles, and "profit centers." Never a word is said about medical facts, public health, impact
on patients, or morality like it used to be -- at least most of the time. Anyone who voices
dissent is ostracized, and finds themselves disinvited and even dismissed from
employment.
So the Youtube video is old hat to me. The people in charge of these critical things in
our world often look like Barbie and Ken. They are cool cucumbers. They know all about
branding, deceptive advertising, maximizing revenue, hiding truths, sucking up. But when
actually asked questions that are critical to the issue at hand -- they often know nothing.
And because they know nothing, nothing gets done. I have seen it many times before and am
sure I will see it again. I read commentary online that people were shocked by that DHS
Chief's answers to questions. I am not shocked -- I am very accustomed to it. Please note:
our entire corporate health care system at the local hospital level in the big cities is now
under the control of people just like him. They are looking for every way they can to defuse
this crisis with calming advertising, words, pleasantries, smiles, and soothing statements. I
am sure that they are also looking for any way they can profit financially from it as well.
All I can say is: Good Luck.
A case in point was the following interaction I was told about yesterday by an old student
of mine who is now a fellow at a major medical center on the East Coast. I heard the same
exact recollection of the story from someone else in the room.
This was a meeting with the upper administration of the hospital system and heads of
departments and multiple physicians and nurses. It occurred between the CEO and a DOC who is
older and near retirement and who is an infectious disease specialist. The discussion about
the current crisis went something like this:
CEO: I am not sure that we need to be preparing like this – this is obviously
overblown – and is really going to damage our budget projections. The HHS seems to
think this is going to go away in the spring anyway. DOC: Why in God's name would you want it to go away in the spring? CEO: (chuckling) What the hell are you talking about? We all want this thing to go away as
soon as possible. DOC – Historically, when pandemics are spread by aerosol droplets, and are as
infectious as this one seems to be, they may recede in the spring -- but then come back in
the fall with horrific fury. Remember the last one -- the Spanish Flu? The first wave was
nothing, but the second and third waves turned the planet into a funeral home. CEO: Oh for God's sake – don't you get it? That will give us time to get a vaccine
-- we will not need to worry about it in October. DOC: A vaccine? you must be kidding. It is never a good idea to rush a vaccine. Remember
the first polio vaccine was rushed to market. It did not work and actually harmed many
children. Remember the swine flu vaccine in the 1970s? It was not properly tested. Very few
died from the swine flu. Hundreds and thousands were maimed or killed by Guillain
Barré Syndrome because of it. And I doubt that half of our population would be even
willing to take it. You do not understand.
CEO: Oh I understand way more than you obviously do. There is already an antiviral --
we will have that as well.
DOC: Really? Again, not really fully tested. And have you looked at the cost? Even a
conservative estimate at the dosing they are using it would be $5000 a day. What is that
going to do to your budget projections when you have 100 people in here in the hospital on
that drug? Do we even have enough in the country for a sudden mass need? I do not
know.
And then CEO looked DOC in the eye and just moved on to something else.
And DOC found out later that he would no longer be welcome at any of these meetings.
Please know this: viruses are not Republicans, they are not Democrats. Viruses are not
going to respond to advertising, sweet words, or revenue cycles. They are going to accomplish
their mission, and that alone. There may be things we are able to do, but we will need all
the medical wisdom in the world focusing on our country as a whole and our local communities.
That is just not happening to the extent it should be. We are going to fight this one with
business school principles.
I again pray all the time that this virus will burn out -- that it will stop, that it will
not get worse. I pray that God will have mercy and allow this to be a close call. But I am
afraid that we have let our society crumble in so many ways –not just medicine -- that
it is going to take a punch in the face to get our attention. This coronavirus may very well
be the brass knuckles.
A follow-up e-mail from him:
This has been one of the most harrowing weeks in my career. The patients are really wigged
out. Multiple times this week, I have seen patients with a cough or fever -- and we cannot ID
a pathogen. That has caused a constant boogeyman to be sitting on my shoulder: fear. I can
see the fear in my staff's eyes, and then on Friday, a nurse suddenly after lunch developed a
101 fever and a bad cough -- again no pathogens. I have a feeling this is happening in many
other places in this country.
We have no way to test these people. I can offer little if any hope. I am telling them to
stay at home, and I can see the horror in their eyes. I am now at the same level of those
physicians in Milano 700 years ago –
So when I get this kind of soul crushing fear in my life, I always call one of my elder
family members. My parents and grandparents are all gone now. The only one left is my 92 year
old Auntie Marina. She lived through hell in Greece during the Nazi occupation and
immediately thereafter. She is an amazing woman. And this is what she said to me.
"My dear, I was there when your parents handed your life and everything you are over to
God. I was right on the front row. He has been preparing you every day of your life since you
were a baby for the duties that you must now perform. Be brave, and sturdy, and do everything
in His name. He will surround you with courage -- and fear not, if he decides this is your
time to go, you will be welcomed by all the saints and angels. But here in our house, we are
going to be lifting you up in prayer, multiple times a day. And I am certain that your
parents are looking down and are very very proud of you."
I am a member of my community and my church. I cannot leave my post -- and I would ask
that you pray for me and my staff for the bravery to continue on. I know that is a lot of
drama, but we are really having fear here on the front lines. I would ask that you keep all
the health care workers in America in your prayers right now.
In further conversation, the doctor said that we should be thinking about a world in which a
large number of health care workers can't come to work because they are in quarantine or sick
with the virus. We are looking at this problem right now.
He also recommends that people follow the coronavirus Reddit, which he says is
well-moderated, and a source of solid information: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/
"... the official Chinese numbers as unreliable, with large error bars in unpredictable directions. Look to South Korea and Singapore for reliable data; both are actively and aggressively testing, and both are strong open information societies. ..."
> The risk of business as usual is a small chance of tens of millions of deaths, because drug shortages prevent effective
control of the epidemic
Does not look this way. In China epidemic is almost over with mortality between 2 and 3%. Cases in other countries has mortality
on 0.1% much like for a regular flu.
I think chances of infection of a billion people are non-existent. Trump might have a point that spring can help -- coronaroviruses
worst period of spreading is winter (although there are exceptions)
As the virus is very similar (I think 80% of the genome) to chicken flu the creation of vaccine is possible. Israeli scientists
claim that 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'
[BUT] after scientists sequenced the DNA of the novel coronavirus causing the current worldwide outbreak, the MIGAL researchers
examined it and found that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human one, and that it uses the same
infection mechanism, which increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine in a very short period of time,
Katz said.
"All we need to do is adjust the system to the new sequence," he said. "We are in the middle of this process, and hopefully
in a few weeks we will have the vaccine in our hands. Yes, in a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent
coronavirus."[.]
Akunis said he has instructed his ministry's director-general to fast-track all approval processes with the goal of bringing
the human vaccine to market as quickly as possible.
"Given the urgent global need for a human coronavirus vaccine, we are doing everything we can to accelerate development,"
MIGAL CEO David Zigdon said. The vaccine could "achieve safety approval in 90 days," he said.[.] (emphasis added)
I think the danger of the pandemic was exaggerated. In no way this is a new Spanish flu. Not even close.
Which means chances of tens million of more death are very exaggerated, highly unrealistic estimate.
Robert Waldmann , March 2, 2020 7:04 pm
There is no basis for the 0.1% death rate outside of China assertion. The ratio of deaths to cases is greater than that and
many people are in serious or critical condition. The death rate is not statistically signficantly higher in China than in other
countries. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Other countries have neither the public health competence nor the ruthlessness of China (I am thinking mostly of other developing
countries but the USA does seem to have problems with testing kits).
A candidate vaccine will be available soon. It will not be proven safe and effective and then mass produced soon. The argument
that it is better to consider costs and benefits and not stick to the rule that first second and third do no harm applies to vaccines
much more than to remdesivir (known to be safe can be quickly tested for effectiveness).
All experts agree that a vaccine will be available in a year or two. They know that candidate vaccines will exist soon. They
know that the problem is proving safety and effectiveness and then producing a lot. A vaccine could be available in much less
than a year. It would be used well within a year if people listened to me. But they won't.
It probably won't be like the Spanish Flu, because of vigorous quarantine type counter measures. A vaccine will help, but could
be too late for tens of millions. Remdesivir will probably work and this will be proven fairly soon. I will probably make a difference.
It could make a larger difference.
Erik , March 2, 2020 8:02 pm
All commenters: please note that official numbers from China are almost certainly inaccurate, both in numerator and denominator.
The total number of cases diagnosed is limited by test kits, which have recently moved from 300 kits manufactured per day to
4000 kits/day. Which is still at least an order of magnitude lower than the number of known cases. And anecdotal data coming from
Chinese physicians and health workers indicates both a higher patient population than official, and many deaths not attributed
to Covid (an epidemic of "pneumonia" deaths in Wuhan preceding the announcement of Covid, for example). Much is being hidden –
not from us, they don't care about us; they're hiding the information from their own people, which they do as a general policy
on most subjects.
Which is all mostly to say, treat the official Chinese numbers as unreliable, with large error bars in unpredictable directions.
Look to South Korea and Singapore for reliable data; both are actively and aggressively testing, and both are strong open information
societies.
likbez , March 2, 2020 9:43 pm
> There is no basis for the 0.1% death rate outside of China assertion
Low mortality rate for COVID-19 is masked by high (15%) mortality rate of persons over 80.
For people younger then 40 it is a reasonable assertion as deaths concentrate on the age group starting from 50-59. Men are
approx. twice more susceptible then women.
Case-Fatality Rates (CFR) China by Age as of 2/11/20
80+ 14.8%
70-79 8.0%
60-69 3.6%
50-59 1.3%
40-49 .4%
30-39 . 24% (18/7,600)
20-29 .19% (7/3,619)
10-19 .02% (1/549)
0-09 0 (0/416)
The most cruel experiment was with the Diamond Princess cruise ship (close space, high level of contact between passengers,
lack of qualified medical personnel and supplied, etc)
Six people died and 700 people were infected out of 3700. For all other the immune system managed to kill the virus. Which
suggests susceptibility rate of around 20%. It suggests 0.2% mortality
Two Japanese passengers – an 87-year-old man and an 84-year-old woman – were the first to die from the disease on February
19.
In the USA out six deaths at least four have been among residents of a long-term care facility called Life Care Center, where
more than 50 residents and staff members have shown symptoms of the virus.
Only 14% of cases are more severe then a regular flu:
I believe your hypothetic case about the possibility of the pandemic with high mortality rate is without merit.
We do not need to contribute to the panic, which already started in the USA with population buying masks, isopropyl alcohol
and hand sanitizers as if there no tomorrow (a friend told me that bottle of hand sanitizer on Amazon today in $60 or so ;-).
And masks are effective mostly for sick people (block spreading of infected aerosol from lungs) , mush less for healthy people
as they do no follow proper decontamination procedures anyway.
BTW in China epidemics is already subsiding. Again only 14 percent of cases are severe (which means more serere than a regular
flu):
The health ministry on Tuesday announced just 125 new cases of the virus detected over the past 24 hours, the lowest number
since authorities began publishing nationwide figures on Jan. 21. Another 31 deaths were reported, all of them in the hardest-hit
province of Hubei. The figures bring China's total number of cases to 80,151 with 2,943 deaths.
China's U.N. ambassador says the government believes that "victory" over the coronavirus won't be far behind the coming
of spring.
> There is no basis for the 0.1% death rate outside of China assertion
Low mortality rate for COVID-19 is masked by high (15%) mortality rate of person over
80.
For people younger then 40 it is a reasonable assertion as death concentrate on age
group starting from 50-59. Men are approx. twice susceptible then women.
Case-Fatality Rates (CFR) China by Age as of 2/11/20
80+ 14.8%
70-79 8.0%
60-69 3.6%
50-59 1.3%
40-49 .4%
30-39 . 24% (18/7,600)
20-29 .19% (7/3,619)
10-19 .02% (1/549)
0-09 .0 (0/416)
The most cruel experiment with the Diamond Princess cruise ship (close space, high
level of contact between passengers, lack of qualified medical personnel and supplied,
etc)
Six people died and 700 people were infected out of 3700. For all other the immune
system managed to kill the virus. Which suggests susceptibility rate of around 20%.
It suggest 0.2% mortality and the around 20% population are susceptible for the virus.
For 80% the immune system proved to be strong enough to kill the virus.
Two Japanese passengers – an 87-year-old man and an 84-year-old woman –
were the first to die from the disease on February 19.
In the USA out six deaths at least four have been among residents of a long-term care
facility called Life Care Center, where more than 50 residents and staff members have
shown symptoms of the virus.
Only 14% of cases are more severe then a regular flu:
I believe you hypothetic about the possibility of the pandemic with high mortality
rate is without merit.
We do not need to contribute to the panic, which already started in the USA with
population buying masks, isopropyl alcohol and hand sanitizers as if there no tomorrow (a
friend told me that bottle of hand sanitizer on Amazon today in $60 or so ;-).
And masks are effective mostly for sick people (block spreading of infected aerosol
from lungs) , mush less for healthy people as they do no follow proper decontamination
procedures anyway.
BTW in China epidemics is already subsiding:
The health ministry on Tuesday announced just 125 new cases of the virus detected
over the past 24 hours, the lowest number since authorities began publishing nationwide
figures on Jan. 21. Another 31 deaths were reported, all of them in the hardest-hit
province of Hubei. The figures bring China's total number of cases to 80,151 with 2,943
deaths.
China's U.N. ambassador says the government believes that "victory" over the
coronavirus won't be far behind the coming of spring.
I thought the twitter name was just some joker but it turns out to be genuine.
U.S. Surgeon General
@Surgeon_General
Feb 29
Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!
They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if
healthcare providers can't get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our
communities at risk!
Where was the free press? Where were the whistleblowers?
I remember the narrative was that countries with "freedom of speech" would have an
immediate response to the outbreak of the virus, therefore being much more efficient than
China in containing the epidemic...
... meanwhile, cases in Italy have skyrocketed by 50% in one day.
Source: an exiled activist called Wu'er Kaixi. I thought the era of making shit up from
refugee stories was over with the end of the Cold War. Looks like I was wrong.
Astonished they've made iso hard to get in Kiwi. I see that your indigenous kitchen
chemists making smack can make all the iso the might wish from acetone. Copper and chromium
oxide catalyst & hydrogenation...
Wiki says 75% ethanol/25% water or 75/25 iso are equivalent as hand-sanitizers... But 75%
ethyl alcohol is roughly 150 proof - Such concentration of ethyl alcohol are often sold for
drinking...but dangerous (overdose) and expensive. Iso is a neurotoxin, ethyl less toxic.
I'd use the vodka approach...or wear gloves (which I do! (and not because of CV - it's an
old habit))
Here's a video made by a Russian, but dubbed into English, which films what's actually going
on in China - multiple locations including in Hubei province actual China footage under
nCOV
Global Times has published two editorials dealing with the COVID-19 issue. This one looks at how
differing societies are reacting:
"South Korea, Japan, and European countries have suffered fewer losses in economic
activities than most parts of China, although they are facing a higher risk from the epidemic
than in the Chinese mainland, except for Hubei.
"It is uncertain whether their approach of 'as much prevention as available' will
ultimately lead to a serious humanitarian crisis or help them become resilient to the
epidemic. Much will depend on the mortality rate of COVID-19."
"Some Americans like to compare the US system with those of other countries. These people
tend to describe how other systems are inferior to theirs, as if the US system is the
standard in the world. But what really tests a country's system? It is whether the government
has the ability to let all people receive equal and timely assistance.
"Due to the expensive healthcare system in the US, many people cannot afford even to pay
for a test for COVID-19, not to mention the cost of treatment after diagnosis."
The initial gloating within the Outlaw US Empire at China's predicament will soon be
replaced by outrage. The CDC continues to issue contradictory statements, particularly about
masks and their effectiveness. Current pictures from China show Xi and his aides all wearing
masks. From a WHO official: "I'm not saying you shouldn't wear masks – you should, but
there's no guarantee." The reason there's no guarantee is the virus can enter through the
eyes and ears which masks don't cover. Within the Outlaw Empire, the problem as admitted is
there's only 10% of the needed amount of masks, so officials are lying about effectiveness to
deter people from buying.
IMO, China's method of reaction shows it took the correct measures to protect the vast
majority of its populace. No other nation will do as well because they lack China's
system.
Good concise report about COVID-19 and its affects on public health policy in this
election year and how it's very likely to cause a vitally needed change in direction.
Sanders's statement on the matter is primarily why Trump is downplaying the extent of the
rising crisis:
"The coronavirus reminds us that we are all in this together. We cannot allow Americans to
skip doctor's visits over outrageous bills.
"Everyone should get the medical care they need without opening their wallet -- as a
matter of justice and public health."
This article discusses how Trump's used the outbreak as a political tool and worse.
Apparently, the WaPost's attacks were effective, but could only be so due to Trump's behavior
and willful distortions.
In my last article,
Are Oil Markets Overreacting To The Coronavirus?
, I warned of the power of media hype when it comes
to epidemics. The human brain has a tendency to mix up the severity of an outcome with how likely that
thing is to happen. Just like our
fear of terrorism
or
shark attacks
, when it comes to epidemics we are incredibly poor judges of how much of a danger they
really pose.
Our intensely interconnected societies and sensationalist media mean that this failure of judgment can
translate into mass hysteria and fear in the markets that can have a tangible impact on the world
economy. Oil prices have collapsed, stock markets have fallen by the largest amount since the 2008
financial crisis and the Dow Jones saw its largest single-day points drop in history. All of this has
come from the spread of the coronavirus from China to South Korea, Italy, Iran, and Japan. But as this
spread continues there is one key factor that market observers appear to be missing, highlighted by the
below chart.
This is an epidemic curve showing the number of new cases per day in China (the world's second-largest
economy and the world's largest importer of goods). It appears that China is in the process of
successfully containing the coronavirus and, for that reason, has already begun to reboot its economy.
The large jump in the middle of the above graph was caused by China changing its recording method from
positive test cases to clinical diagnosis. The trend can perhaps be seen more clearly in the Guangdong
outbreak in the curve below.
You can follow more epidemic curves updated regularly on
Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection
, including the more recent and smaller outbreaks beyond
China's borders. All of the Chinese data suggests that the epidemic is coming under control there.
Here is a graph of containership congestion levels in the Outer Pearl River Delta:
Here are some other key indicators that show the same thing:
But these are generally not the statistics or the graphs reported by the media. Instead, they report
cumulative data and crude numbers out of context.
These cumulative graphs suggest that coronavirus deaths and cases are increasing and therefore the
epidemic is getting worse. Of course, in a cumulative graph, the cases will only ever go up or plateau.
This graph, which is far more relevant, shows a general downward trend in global new confirmed cases
per day and an increase in new recovered cases. This data would suggest that containing the coronavirus
is very much a possibility and if governments continue to follow good practice the new outbreaks can be
controlled without impacting the economy too severely.
In fact, the largest threat to the markets at the moment is not an epidemic of disease but an epidemic
of hysteria. Governments and medical institutions are reacting, as they should, to prevent a worst-case
scenario. But for societies and markets to react in the same way is neither logical nor healthy.
For example, the WHO recently
upgraded
the global
risk of the coronavirus outbreak to 'very high', a fact that spread across media outlets like wildfire.
At the same time, the head of the WHO stressed that the biggest challenges to overcome were fear and
misinformation. It is this fear and misinformation that is driving a huge portion of the negative
sentiment in global markets.
Another way that media spreads this fear is by reporting the number of deaths and cases without
context. Take the numbers below.
Yet, when compared to the
global
annual mortality
of other diseases, the number of total deaths is relatively insignificant.
Measles:
140,000 deaths
Influenza:
650,000 deaths
Tuberculosis:
1.5 million deaths
Infectious gastroenteritis:
1.8 million deaths
Imagine a world in which every death from the flu was reported on the front page of every media
outlet. You might be surprised, for example, to find out that in the U.S.
105 children have died
from the flu so far in 2020 - the second-highest number of deaths at this time
of year since records began in 2004.
Another piece of relevant data that is frequently excluded from articles about the coronavirus is the
age and health of coronavirus victims. With the death rate for an infected individual aged 50 or lower
under 1% and the death rate of an infected individual without a pre-existing condition also below 1%.
Related: Saudi Arabia Aims For Additional Cuts As Oil Plunges Below $50
A vital point to understand when it comes to public health measures designed to contain an epidemic is
that it is always a trade-off between the deaths caused by the epidemic and the deaths caused by economic
stagnation. Poverty is the single
largest determinant of health
, and economic growth is the single
most powerful instrument
for reducing poverty
. This is not a zero-sum game and it will be a calculation that the Chinese
government must make as its population returns to work.
It is possible that stock markets were in a bubble at the start of 2019 and the coronavirus was the
black swan event necessary to bring it all crashing down to earth. As for oil markets, there is plenty of
bearish news at the moment, with an oil supply glut, Russia
angling to
leave
the OPEC+ deal and Libyan oil production
poised to come back online
. Chinese demand has undoubtedly fallen in Q1 and everything from refinery
runs to imports have been hit extremely hard. An oil price crash was entirely justified then. But the
data doesn't suggest that the coronavirus is escalating. The data suggest China has already started
coming back online. The question is, when will that data begin to show in the markets?
Of course hand sanitizer isn't essential but if more people make their own it could prevent
the inevitable price jump that will accompany its return to supermarket shelves.
Add a few drops of tea tree oil and eucalyptus oil, maybe one drop or two of thyme oil.
Not excess on the thyme. That is also a great mixture to spray on bed to refresh but mainly
to slaughter dust mites. I mop the floors with that sort of mix and its great.
The coronavirus epidemic is almost defeated in China. There were only 13 new cases diagnosed yesterday
outside city of Wuhan. Most of these people have likely been infected over two weeks ago. The
epicenter, Wuhan still under quarantine had only 196 new cases, less than half as many as the
day before.
The number of cases outside still China follows an exponential trend. Italy had 585 new
cases,
twice as many as yesterday. Thousands more have been exposed and infected but are not yet
showing symptoms. Three people in Finland are ill and 130 under quarantine after one tourist
brings the virus from northern Italy.
The United States has 8 new cases for a total of 77. The American health care system is
totally unsuited and incapable in dealing with an outbreak if the virus ever succeeds in
entering the US population in general.
The previous post on Moon of Alabama
sums up what is needed:
Tests must be freely available for anyone with even slight symptoms. Those who test
positive must be isolated. There must be teams to trace and alarm all their contacts. All
costs for COVID-19 cases, including money to pay people during for quarantine, must be paid
by the government.
Services must be set up for deliveries to people who quarantine
themselves at home. Each new cluster must receive an immediate response on a large scale.
Health staff needs to get extra pay.
Time is working against the virus as spring is coming. Due to measures already taken the
spread of the virus is slow and the number of death are minuscule and comparable with a regular
flu epidemics: On Friday, Iran had 388 cases (+143 from the day before) with only 34 deaths (+8);
Italy had 889 (+234) with only 21 deaths (+4); South Korea had 2,337 (+571) with only 16 deaths
(+3).
The World Health Organization (WHO) has upgraded its assessment of the danger posed by the
coronavirus to "very high," stopping short of calling the outbreak a pandemic. Director-General
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a recent press conference, "For the moment, we are not
witnessing the uncontained global spread of this virus, and we are not witnessing large-scale
severe death or disease."
The coronavirus has now been documented in at least 56 countries.
... ... ...
A declaration of a pandemic would trigger emergency-grade response plans at
local and state levels. These measures would include school closures, the use of essential
personnel only, the use of telecommunications for the conduct of business, the closure of
public events – sporting events, conferences, political rallies and conventions –
and the possible use of massive quarantine measures, to include the deployment of military or
police forces to enforce regulations. These measures have been employed by many nations that
are essentially preparing for massive outbreaks in their communities.
The last time the WHO declared a pandemic was in 2009 when the H1N1 flu, better known as the
swine flu, infected over 1 billion people on the globe and killed over half a million people.
The WHO was severely criticized for its declaration of a pandemic and handling of the crisis.
It was cited for the needlessly complex definition of a pandemic, potential conflict of
interest with the vaccine industries, and responding with lack of resolve after declaring the
pandemic.
According to the New York Times , "Countries that needed technical help could not
obtain it in enough languages, and the WHO bureaucracy created an unmanageable number of
documents."
During a 2011 review of the pandemic, the WHO noted in its draft that the "core national and
local capacities called for in the International Health Regulation (IHR) are not yet fully
operational and are not now on a path to timely implementation worldwide." Essentially, the WHO
lacks enforceable sanctions. In other words, it cannot make countries subscribe to its
recommendations.
In its summary conclusion 3, the WHO wrote that the world is "ill-prepared to respond to a
severe influenza pandemic or any similarly global, sustained and threatening public health
emergency." It continued: "Beyond the implementation of core public health capacities called
for in the IHR, global preparedness can be advanced through research, strengthened health care
delivery systems, economic development in low- and middle-income countries and improved health
status."
There are presently 84,175 cases of Covid-19, with 2,876 deaths so far. The number of
people who have recovered from the disease is 36,884.
The three countries posing serious acceleration in cases - Iran, Italy and South Korea
– reported more than 3,500 infections on Friday, doubling in two days. On Friday, Iran
had 388 cases (+143 from the day before) with 34 deaths (+8); Italy had 889 (+234) with 21
deaths (+4); South Korea had 2,337 (+571) with 16 deaths (+3).
COVID-19 is not a new virus. Its a new strain of an old virus. Corona virus is an old
virus. It does not stay within the body like some viruses do.
For example, chicken pox virus is not cleared from the body but lies dormant, but when
reactivated it causes shingles which is not very infectious. HIV stays infectious and
supposedly fatal without treatment. COVID-19, even if it could somehow remain in body and be
infectious , is not fatal except to 0.2-2% of people. In fact outside China and Iran it seems
to be no more than 0.1% fatal, same as flu.
So in such a case, if everyone eventually harbors COVID -19, and there is no evidence for
this, there is nobody left to infect, we will all be carriers, natural selection will ensure
the human race will live comfortably with this virus as it does with many other viruses,
becoming harmful only when the immune system fails.
Now COVID-19 might be able to reinfect people, like the flu. However, unless its like
Dengue, subsequent reinfections would be milder except in a few people susceptible to immune
enhancement where an overwhelming immune response due to previous sensitization might cause
complications. This could explain the higher fatality rates in China and Iran which were
previously exposed to SARS and MERS.
You hug that thought on a few "rare cases." I could present a few dozens links on peer
reviewed published papers and audio on the advances made in Immunobiology and immunotherapy
to include cancer as well.
Taking up the discussion on COVID-19. It may interest you that researchers in Israel say
they have developed a vaccine, anticipating it will be available in 90 days. Look at their
findings!
Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'
[BUT] after scientists sequenced the DNA of the novel coronavirus causing the current
worldwide outbreak, the MIGAL researchers examined it and found that the poultry
coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human one, and that it uses the same
infection mechanism, which increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine
in a very short period of time, Katz said.
"All we need to do is adjust the system to the new sequence," he said. "We are in the
middle of this process, and hopefully in a few weeks we will have the vaccine in our hands.
Yes, in a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent
coronavirus."[.]
Akunis said he has instructed his ministry's director-general to fast-track all approval
processes with the goal of bringing the human vaccine to market as quickly as possible.
"Given the urgent global need for a human coronavirus vaccine, we are doing everything
we can to accelerate development," MIGAL CEO David Zigdon said. The vaccine could "achieve
safety approval in 90 days," he said.[.] (emphasis added)
20 global centres are rushing to develop an effective vaccine for COVID-19
"... The federal government's response to the coronavirus has been woefully lacking from the start. Between the president's own attempts to The federal government's response to the coronavirus has been woefully lacking from the start. Between the president's own attempts to dismiss the severity of the situation and the CDC's inexplicable delays in testing patients, it is clear that the relevant authorities are not taking this outbreak as seriously as they should be. ..."
"... The administration seems to be more concerned with the damage that the virus could do to the president's political fortunes than they are with halting its spread and providing the necessary resources to treat those infected by it. ..."
"... The account surfaced after President Trump sought to play down the danger of a domestic coronavirus outbreak amid bipartisan concern about a sluggish and disjointed response by the administration to an illness that public health officials have said is likely to spread through the United States. The first American case of coronavirus in a patient with no known contact with hot zones or other coronavirus patients emerged near Travis Air Force Base this week. The account surfaced after President Trump sought to play down the danger of a domestic coronavirus outbreak amid bipartisan concern about a sluggish and disjointed response by the administration to an illness that public health officials have said is likely to spread through the United States. The first American case of coronavirus in a patient with no known contact with hot zones or other coronavirus patients emerged near Travis Air Force Base this week. ..."
The New York Times
reports on the contents of a whistle-blower complaint in the Department of Health and Human Services that describes the government's
incompetent handling of the quarantining of Americans exposed overseas to the coronavirus. This incompetence appears to have led
to the spread of the virus into the general population:
Federal health employees interacted with Americans quarantined for possible exposure to the coronavirus without proper medical
training or protective gear, then scattered into the general population, according to a government whistle-blower.
In a portion of a complaint filing obtained by The New York Times that has been submitted to the Office of the Special Counsel,
the whistle-blower, described as a senior leader at the health agency, said the team was “improperly deployed” to two military
bases in California to assist the processing of Americans who had been evacuated from coronavirus hot zones in China and elsewhere.
The staff members were sent to Travis Air Force Base and March Air Reserve Base and were ordered to enter quarantined areas, including
a hangar where coronavirus evacuees were being received. They were not provided training in safety protocols until five days later,
the person said.
Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed staff members moved freely around and off the bases, with at least one
person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperature
three times a day.
The federal government's response to the coronavirus has been woefully lacking from the start. Between the president's own attempts
to The federal government's response to the coronavirus has been woefully lacking from the start. Between the president's own attempts
to
dismiss the severity of the situation and the CDC's
inexplicable delays in testing patients, it is clear that the relevant authorities are not taking this outbreak as seriously
as they should be.
The administration seems to be more concerned with the damage that the virus could do to the president's political fortunes
than they are with halting its spread and providing the necessary resources to treat those infected by it. The exposure of federal
health workers occurred in the same part of California where the first domestic case of coronavirus recently appeared: The exposure
of federal health workers occurred in the same part of California where the first domestic case of coronavirus recently appeared:
The account surfaced after President Trump sought to play down the danger of a domestic coronavirus outbreak amid bipartisan
concern about a sluggish and disjointed response by the administration to an illness that public health officials have said is
likely to spread through the United States. The first American case of coronavirus in a patient with no known contact with hot
zones or other coronavirus patients emerged near Travis Air Force Base this week. The account surfaced after President Trump sought
to play down the danger of a domestic coronavirus outbreak amid bipartisan concern about a sluggish and disjointed response by
the administration to an illness that public health officials have said is likely to spread through the United States. The first
American case of coronavirus in a patient with no known contact with hot zones or other coronavirus patients emerged near Travis
Air Force Base this week.
The article details the inadequacy of the preparation and training provided to the staff that received the evacuees: The article
details the inadequacy of the preparation and training provided to the staff that received the evacuees:
The staff members, who had some experience with emergency management coordination, were woefully underprepared for the mission
they were given, according to the whistle-blower. "They were not properly trained or equipped to operate in a public health emergency
situation," the official wrote. "They were potentially exposed to coronavirus; appropriate measures were not taken to protect
the staff from potential infection; and appropriate steps were not taken to quarantine, monitor or test them during their deployment
and upon their return home." The staff members, who had some experience with emergency management coordination, were woefully
underprepared for the mission they were given, according to the whistle-blower. "They were not properly trained or equipped to
operate in a public health emergency situation," the official wrote. "They were potentially exposed to coronavirus; appropriate
measures were not taken to protect the staff from potential infection; and appropriate steps were not taken to quarantine, monitor
or test them during their deployment and upon their return home." "They were not properly trained or equipped to operate in a
public health emergency situation," the official wrote. "They were potentially exposed to coronavirus; appropriate measures were
not taken to protect the staff from potential infection; and appropriate steps were not taken to quarantine, monitor or test them
during their deployment and upon their return home." "They were not properly trained or equipped to operate in a public health
emergency situation," the official wrote. "They were potentially exposed to coronavirus; appropriate measures were not taken to
protect the staff from potential infection; and appropriate steps were not taken to quarantine, monitor or test them during their
deployment and upon their return home."
It appears that the administration's shoddy handling of the situation has already put the public at greater risk of exposure unnecessarily,
and this episode hardly inspires confidence that they will be able to manage a larger outbreak here in the U.S. It appears that the
administration's shoddy handling of the situation has already put the public at greater risk of exposure unnecessarily, and this
episode hardly inspires confidence that they will be able to manage a larger outbreak here in the U.S.
Nonsense. They started managing it early. A couple weeks ago they took US passengers off the
infected cruise ship and flew them in tight security to isolation facilities in various
places. One of those facilities is at a hospital here in Spokane, and they've been training
and waiting for four years. This is the first use of the facility. I'd call that preparation.
"The staff members were sent to Travis Air Force Base and March Air Reserve Base and were
ordered to enter quarantined areas, including a hangar where coronavirus evacuees were being
received. They were not provided training in safety protocols until five days later..."
"Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed staff members moved freely
around and off the bases, with at least one person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving
California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperature
three times a day."
"The first American case of coronavirus in a patient with no known contact with hot zones
or other coronavirus patients emerged near Travis Air Force Base this week."
This country is so scr*wed. Trump and his band of completely incompetent people will lead to
thousands infected and hundreds dead. I think the only upside is that this debacle will end
with the removal of Trump from office. How can any thinking person let this happen?
Yeah well, the merry band of Trump Grifters and Cronies can easily turn a disaster into a
catastrophe. The latest info shows that the people charged with quarantining the infected
people from the cruise ship in No Cal were under trained and did not have protective
equipment. Now there is an infected case from that same county that is not traced to China
travel. Workers who complained were told "they weren't good team players".
The refusal by some Trump followers to even acknowledge the ineptness and incompetence (see below), is Jim-Jones-level
(Jonestown) cult behavior. A real moral/spiritual sickness with self-deception at its core.
---------
"The staff members were sent to Travis Air Force Base and March Air Reserve Base and were
ordered to enter quarantined areas, including a hangar where coronavirus evacuees were being
received. They were not provided training in safety protocols until five days later..."
"Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed
staff members moved freely around and off the bases, with at least one person staying in a
nearby hotel and leaving California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to
test their temperature three times a day."
"The first American case of coronavirus in a patient with no known contact with hot zones
or other coronavirus patients emerged near Travis Air Force Base this week."
"The staff members were sent to Travis Air Force Base and March Air
Reserve Base and were ordered to enter quarantined areas, including a
hangar where coronavirus evacuees were being received. They were not
provided training in safety protocols until five days later..."
"Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed
staff members moved freely around and off the bases, with at least one
person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving California on a commercial
flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperature three
times a day."
"The first American case of coronavirus in a patient with no known contact
with hot zones or other coronavirus patients emerged near Travis Air
Force Base this week."
In fact, other Trump policies will probably contribute to the spread. What happens when
illegal immigrants start catching the virus? In general, they are trying to avoid all contact
with the government, and cannot afford to pay for health care, so they are not likely to seek
early treatment. Many of them have jobs that involve handling food or cleaning living spaces.
I'm not advocating that we ignore illegal immigration, but I think there are situations in
which it makes sense to turn a judicious blind eye to the problem. I don't think this
administration is capable of that kind of nuance.
Interesting, but we are not even close to that. Still only 60 US cases. They might actually
be better conditioned to avoiding the virus, at least in those industries.
Agree. And by all means stay away from places like the upcoming Democratic Primaries and
Caucuses where the risk of catching it can be very high! The Democratic leadership refuses to
cancel them.
Despite a female chief doctor has reported this disease on Dec. 26 last year as a unknown
contagious pneumonia, Chinese officials didn't treat it seriously other than did routine such
as notified UN on Jan. 7 this year.
Only until patients with high fever crowded hospitals' emergency room, then, they realized
this is a big issue.
Hopefully, we won't that happen in US but it is possible.
Government needs to stock necessary medical suppliers, need to select hospitals to treat
this highly contagious diseases, need ... many things but it seems that they only prepare to
brag that through their efforts, this disease doesn't spread.
I agree with 2014-era Donald Trump. We need an expert with "experience in infectious disease
control" in charge of pandemic response.
Yet instead we get the former governor of Indiana.
DJT, 10/17/2014: "Obama just appointed an Ebola Czar with zero experience in the medical
area and zero experience in infectious disease control. A TOTAL JOKE!"
So I understand that Trump has appointed Mr. Pence and two highly placed FINANCIAL ADVISORS
to manage our national response. His priorities could not be more blatant .Why is it that our
Republican legislators are not beating him over the head with this obvious mismanagement of a
potential medical crisis, and allow him to focus on the financial ramifications (and
associated impacts on his reelection campaign)?
"Why is it that our Republican legislators are not beating him over the
head with this obvious mismanagement of a potential medical crisis, and
allow him to focus on the financial ramifications (and associated
impacts on his reelection campaign)?"
Hey, a pile of Coronavirus corpses is just par for the course in MAGA-land.
Trump's constant lying, his focus on appearances instead of reality, his rewarding loyalty
over competence, expertise, and integrity, all of it has hindered the government response to
this crisis. If we avoid the worst, we'll owe thanks to God, certainly not to Trump and his
bunch of liars and incompetents. My 2016 vote for Trump was the worst one I ever cast.
Trump's been very lucky so far, there have been no crises other than those he created
himself. Now we have a real one, and his government's initial response has been muddled at
best.
Appointing Pence is just a way to deflect the blame. Whether Pence can handle the job or
not doesn't matter anyway...Trump will be constantly sticking his nose and Twitter thumbs
into the process and making it impossible for anyone to do the job, even if they were
competent.
If this lasts until November and his polling numbers aren't looking great, a part of me
wonders if he'll 'postpone' the elections out of 'public health' concerns.
But the rest of me tells me that I'm skirting a little too close to the Q crazy line by
thinking about that.
Incompetence is not a bug of the Trump administration. It is a feature.
The Government is the problem, so declared Saint Ronald, and the Donald is the guy who will
finally bring it to its knees, just in time for a pandemic.
Who knew that a moron could not be trusted with the office of POTUS. I did not see this
coming
Bottom line - neither the administration nor Democratic Party response the coronavirus issue
as a public health issue. They all want to score in their political ambitions:
1. At the epidemic lost control in China, the administration is busy to use it to contain
China and hope to achieve de-coupling and de facto economic blockage - travel ban
announced
2. As the epidemic reaches US and stock market tumbles - both sides want their
^&#%$@
Very few politicians care:
1. Do we have a strategy to handle the epidemic if it spread out in US?
2. Do we have enough hospital beds to handle this?
3. Have we designated hospitals to treat this highly contagious diseases (not to mingle
with other patients)
4. Do we have enough supplies to handle an e[odemic
Of course, there are more to be considered.
Meanwhile, politicians and their supporters DESERVE bad outcomes from their political
operations.
World stock markets are expected to fall further next week after the first surveys of
China's economic health since the coronavirus outbreak showed factory output has plunged and
the country's service sectors have contracted.
.. ...
Investors expect to find out in the next few days whether the outbreak is accelerating in
the US, the world's biggest economy, and how far central banks and governments are prepared to
go to deal with an epidemic.
"Right now the market is saying that this is unbounded. We don't know what the limits are
and we don't know where it's going to peak," said Graham Tanaka, the chief investment officer
at New York-based Tanaka Capital.
... ... ...
Last weekend China's president, Xi Jinping, told local officials that low-risk areas
should "resume full production and normal life". The government reported that larger factories
reached 85.6% of their capacity by the middle of last week.
Analysts at ING said: "This isn't as positive as it sounds. Even if China's factory
production can recover in March, it will still face the risk of a low level of export orders.
This is because the supply chain will continue to be broken, this time in South Korea, Japan,
Europe, and the US, where Covid-19 has begun to spread."
Unofficial reports show that factories outside Hubei province, where the virus started,
could be working at no more than 75% of their capacity and many nearer 25% to 50% while
millions of workers remain trapped in their home province, unable to travel back to their place
of work.
Hundreds of corporate events have been cancelled or postponed in recent days in response to
calls for a clampdown on large gatherings
The risk is limited - this kills the old and infirm.
MOA was accurate in all the panic - China controlled its initial outbreak (although a
re-entry is not unlikely imo). That the rest of the world didn't react fast enough, is
expected though, but saying that before it was a thing would have been unnecessarily
scare-mongering I'd say.
Hi B,
looks like the guys at New England Biolabs have a very rapid assay for COVID-19 --- Rapid
Molecular Detection of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Virus RNA Using Colorimetric LAMP
Yinhua Zhang, Nelson Odiwuor, Jin Xiong, Luo Sun, Raphael Ohuru Nyaruaba, Hongping Wei,
Nathan A Tanner
Its a preprint -- but this is the way to go an isothermal loop mediated amplification
(LAMP) assay. You ought to be able to get a result in about 30 minutes -- faster once they
really automate it. Should cost virtually nothing a few cents.
Other versions of it might be adapted so you can use them in the field so a general
practitioner or even a soldier will be able to make the diagnosis at the bed side-- its a
simple color change in a tube. All you need is a pipette the assay tube a hot block and a
timer. True positive rate 99.99% false positive about 1% or less. This what the CDC needs.
Problem is that they have to mass produce the assay tubes -- we need 100 million like
yesterday. The other thing is that we might need martial law to quarantine people and we need
to train people to use the kits and fast.
All of a sudden, "freedom isn't free" axiom acquires a really macabre meaning. The inevitable
devastation in countries with laissez-faire approach to this emergency will eventually prove
"totalitarian" Chinese measures as being vastly superior.
The US will undoubtedly - if grudgingly - adopt Beijing MO, but only after hundreds of
thousands of people die needlessly, and America's healthcare system falls apart under the
pressure of millions of patients unable to pay exorbitant bills.
The American mind does not know what "public health" is.
"Public health" is not a thinkable thought. b's paragraph beginning with "Tests must be
freely available..." is a sequence of events that cannot exist even in fiction in America.
Only someone who has never lived here could write that paragraph. None of b's suggestions are
happening. And because these simple measures cannot happen, a price will be paid.
The overreaction to this will cause much, much more damage than the virus would have if it
were responded to in a conventional, sensible way. Those in positions of responsibility are
terrified of underreacting, and it's easy to rationalize that it's better to be safe than
sorry.
If measures taken cause unnecessary disruption, if they increase the level of stress, the
levels of disease and the amount of death will rise rather than fall. There is more to
disease than just microbes.
This is not to say that we should be laissez-faire. Our response to the yearly outbreak of
the flu is, in my opinion, insufficient. Schools are an unprecedented institution of
prolonged propinquity. Children go to school, are with their classmates in enclosed rooms all
day, and bring the disease home. Children survive, but grandma and grandpa might not. Schools
can be shuttered during outbreaks, and the technology exists, at least for the relatively
fortunate, to continue the instruction online. People should also be encouraged to avoid
stressful prolonged propinquity situations such as travel on planes, trains, and interstate
buses.
It's occurred to me that the death rate statistics might be misleading. Since China closed
their schools, one can assume that the disease rate among children fell substantially.
However, elderly people who live in care facilities, which is a high density living
situation, would not enjoy the falling infection rate, and they are exactly the population
most susceptible to a fatal outcome. This alone, perhaps, might make the death rate higher
for COVID19 than for the flu.
The US healthcare system, the privatized system of exploitation of the sick for greater
investor profits, is not capable of dealing with a pandemic. Trump and his gang of thieves,
charlatans, and unapologetically incompetent followers of Ayn Rand and graduates of the Koch
Brothers University, will prevent the socialization of medicine if they possibly can. Will a
future cover of Time Magazine show them all hanging from lamp posts?
Whether this pandemic provokes the rapture of Pence & his 144,000 elect and the much
anticipated End Times, or whether it fizzles out, I do heartily wish for one outcome: the
disenfranchisement of Donald J Trump, his heirs & assigns, and all those who seem unable
to smell the stink of his bullshit.
CDC estimates 30 million flu cases each year with 30,000 deaths and 500,000
hospitalizations. I think we are a long way from any real concern. The US is nowhere near as
polluted or densely populated as China. Also, I don't think we know how the disease spreads
among non Asians. They are keeping that under wraps. Aside from those captives on the cruise
ship there really has not been much spread from those who returned from China (visitors or
citizens).
Agreed that the US leadership is clueless and their thrashing around in order to protect
corporate capitalism is xenophobic and dangerous to the world. Came across this research on a
plant bioflavonoid that you might find useful in the treatment of SARS COV-1 (aka
COVID-19).
It's always Groundhog Day in the USA.
It's always late August 2005.
It's always New Orleans.
It's always Hurricane Katrina [or something else] on the horizon.
It's always a Republican Administration in power.
Who needs external enemies when we have such internal incompetents available to do the work
of sabotage? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day_(film)
Neither Reps nor Dems are psychologically capable even of conceiving the kinds of measures
the post calls for. Trump's stooge already proclaimed that profit is the one and only goal of
any response ("the market must decide"), while the Dem leadership as well can speak and think
only in terms of making care "affordable", IOW the main purpose of the whole process still
has to be corporate control and profit, even if a few stray Dems do want government to
subsidize some victims. The purpose still is money changing hands, profit, commerce. Until
the Big One levels the karma of this place that will never change.
It seems almost like fate is teeing up one practice play each time, just to show the US
how hollowed out it is, before the real play begins. First was the Iranian reprisal strike
which could have been so much more devastating. And now, although it's too early to tell how
severe this pest ultimately will be, it looks so far like it won't completely cleanse the
place. But if so that won't be for the lack of the US economic and cultural system giving it
every opportunity it can use.
I have no doubt the US learns zero from either test case. By now the US is too berserk and
stupid to deduce anything from its very survival than confirmation of the excellence of its
policy and encouragement to further escalate and accelerate.
The idea that Uncle Sam will do something useful and timely is simply laughable. I have been
mostly housebound due to severe illness for the past five years. Imagine a five year
quarantine! In all that time I have had zero social support besides receiving a disability
pension. I hire a personal shopper every two weeks to bring groceries; everything else comes
via UPS or FedEx. I frequently go two weeks at a time and never see anyone except maybe a
delivery driver.
There is no system to take care of housebound people. For me there is no medical personal
to make housecalls, no social support, no personal care workers, nothing. And this at a time
when nationwide there are only small numbers of people like myself. Multiply this non-system
by 100 or 1000 and people will die at home and no one will even notice.
Uncle Sam's Day of Reckoning may be fast approaching. And we will have well-earned every
bit of suffering headed our way.
Funny thing, b was right - China (and online deliveries as well really) managed to snuff the
spread out well, and it seems that the rest of the world and their 'representative
bureaucracies' will show all how limited they are when a fast acting 'unknown unknown'
(Rummy, how you made sense here!) does its thing.
This is a mutation of a typical seasonal Coronavirus flu, so all measured affective for a
regular flu apply. Do not touch your face and especially nose and eyes by hands is one important
safety measure. Disinfect hands with alphobol and glycerin mix is another. Wearing mask in public
places might be necessary in areas with many cases, but for areas without them is probably an
overkill. But it can help against a regular seasonal flu.
The main concern is that the flue will serve as a catalyst for the "Coronarovirus recession."
The panic already exposed weaknesses of the global supply chains created by neoliberal
globalization. Looks like this process is already under way.
Alcogol (including Isopropil alvhogol) is quite effective disinfectant, so the need for
something like Lizol is questionable outside bathrooms. There is no data that daily
disinfestations of door knobs and such might help.
The most important think is that sick people who have no symptoms or minor symptoms do not
spread the deases by wearing masks. So wearing a mask is not that important for healthy people
but is extremely important for infected people to slow the spread of the flu.
Notable quotes:
"... The disinfectant is seen as providing protection against the spread of the disease, although its effectiveness has not yet been scientifically proven. ..."
The disinfectant is seen as providing protection against the spread of the disease, although
its effectiveness has not yet been scientifically proven.
Dettol owner Reckitt Benckiser said in its results on Thursday. "We are seeing some
increased demand for Dettol and Lysol products and are working to support the relevant
healthcare authorities and agencies, including through donations, information and education. We
do see increased activity online for our consumers in China,"
"... The Trump administration has done exactly the opposite: It has slashed funding for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its infectious disease research. For fiscal year 2020, Trump proposed cutting the CDC budget by US$1.3 billion, nearly 20% below the 2019 level. ..."
“As coronavirus continues to spread, the Trump administration has declared a public
health emergency and imposed quarantines and travel restrictions. However, over the
past three years the administration has weakened the offices in charge of preparing
for and preventing this kind of outbreak.
Two years ago, Microsoft founder and
philanthropist Bill Gates warned that the world should be “preparing for a pandemic
in the same serious way it prepares for war.” Gates, whose foundation has invested
heavily in global health, suggested staging simulations, war games and preparedness
exercises to simulate how diseases could spread and to identify the best response.
The Trump administration has done exactly the opposite: It has slashed funding for
the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its infectious disease
research. For fiscal year 2020, Trump proposed cutting the CDC budget by US$1.3
billion, nearly 20% below the 2019 level.
As a specialist in budgeting, I recognize
that there are many claims on public resources.
But when it comes to public health,
I believe it is vital to invest early in prevention. Starving the CDC of critical
funding will make it far harder for the government to react quickly to a public
health emergency.”
"This is massively dishonest," tweeted Tim Murtaugh, director of communications for Trump's
campaign. He was responding to a tweet claiming a local outlet said Trump called the virus a
"hoax." The tweet from the outlet has since been deleted.
"Trump says the media's hysteria-inducing coverage of the government response is the hoax,
not the virus itself. Willful and malicious dishonesty," Murtaugh said. He also blasted The
Washington Post's Dana Milbank and commentator Bill Kristol arguing that their claims proved
Trump's point about Democratic hysteria surrounding the illness.
What do you do when their is a communicable disease? isolate the source (travel
bans/Quarantine) develop treatment protocols, insure there are enough beds, equipment,
personnel, and work on a vaccine. Did I miss anything? Has the administration overlooked
anything? Reply Share Report 1 Like
Please stop blindly believing Trump's misinformed assumptions. Covid19 is NOT
comparable to the flu. Covid19 appears to be highly transmissible, there's no vaccine, and
it can lodge deeply into lung tissue causing Sudden Acute Respiratory Distress (SARS).
Also, the death rate for people over 60, or for people with underlying health conditions is
10x-20x that of the flu. AND--- transmission has been increasing, not slowing. Do your own
research people. And let's have some concern for our elderly population. Reply Share Report
2 Likes
Why is Fox News and Trump focusing more on the "politicization" of the coronavirus than
on the actual reporting of the spread of the virus? It's the Dems' job to call the
president on things and its Trump's job to answer to Congress. This is the two-party system
the USA has embraced as a democratic society. In Canada, they have weekly 'Question
Periods' where the Prime Minister is bombarded with questions and yes -- political attacks
-- and he stands right there in front of all of the elected members of parliament and
defends his policies and positions. Canadians accept this political discord as healthy and
necessary debate -- why can't Americans???
Below age 50, the risk of death is 0.4% or less. Men, especially smokers, are significantly
more vulnerable than women
One positive factor in containing epidemics in the USA is that the US population is much more
socially isolated than many other nations. At the same time since the disease affects working age
people far more mildly, it is very possible that it is more widespread but is largely
indistinguishable from the regular flu for those people.
It is doubtful that the political lobbyists for the US health care industry would support any
form of government response that interferes with their profit-making machinery.
Notable quotes:
"... The threshold contagion rate for an epidemic is R1, i.e. on average each person passes the disease on to one more ..."
It also vastly expands the network of possible contacts before and after a case of infection,
so containment becomes exponentially more difficult. The UK's twentieth case, appearing in
Surrey on Friday, is the first to have occurred here through secondary or tertiary transmission
but given a prolonged pre-symptom period the trail can easily go cold.
"... We've been over the statistics , there's no need to go over them again. Thus far, scientifically speaking, the Coronavirus is nothing all that remarkable . And yet here we are. A world on the verge of all-out, no-holds-barred panic. Two days ago the scare was related to a woman in Japan who allegedly got the disease twice . Today the authoritarians mouths are watering over discussion of stadium quarantines in Australia and the possibility of the military having to aid the struggling NHS in the UK. ..."
"... Fewer than fifty people, total, have been infected across those two countries. The media are certainly taking to the task of spreading as much hysteria as they can, as quickly as they can. The Guardian is especially on the ball, as they always seem to be when it comes to spreading baseless, ephemeral fear. Firstly they have a neat little "fact check" piece, trying to stop people gaining any sense of perspective. ..."
"... if you more properly compare hospitalised flu cases with the hospitalised COVID19 cases, the regular flu actually has a much higher mortality rate. 5.6% (in the US) compared with 1-3%. ..."
"... Elsewhere, one headline warns us of the dangers of "superspreaders" , and another declares that "An epidemic is coming: Europe struggles to contain coronavirus." It doesn't mention that the "epidemic" Europe is "struggling to contain" has only infected 1093 people on the entire continent, or that only 23 of them have died. (They have since changed the headline to something less theatrical ) ..."
"... There's also the money angle. Not just the vaccine research grants or the tests being sold and shipped out by the case, but also the stock market game. It's all over the headlines that this "pandemic" is causing the biggest crashes in stock prices since 2008, but markets declining are still opportunities to make a lot of money. ..."
"... This is greatest mass-panic I can remember in a long time, maybe since Y2K. Either the world is truly facing a global instance of mass hysteria, or some powerful hand is about to make a big play. ..."
"... Just follow the MONEY: https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php The overblown bubble is popping – the usual centuries long play – over inflate assets, get the small investors debt laden make profits from their borrowing against these assets then -POP the bubble ! And hey presto all the assets end up with the bankers! ..."
"... A number of investment banks issued global travel restrictions. JPMorgan issued a ban on non-essential travel on Thu. GoldmanSachs, Citigroup, CreditSuisse, BNPParibas, DeutscheBank and other investment banks have restricted travel to Italy. ..."
"... It's an instinctive reaction for hedge fund vultures to swoop about ready to feast on every economic disaster by buying low and selling high – this is how financial scavengers operate –they're capitalists to the bone .. That being said, I doubt Xi Jinping and China's cabal of oligarchs took a COVID-19 financial hit just to eliminate the orange buffoon in 2020. ..."
"... The death rate from COVID-19 is 3.427% and rising. Here is a good website which tracks the progress of COVID-19 around the world – the number of confirmed cases, the number of deaths and the number of recovered. It is updatetd twice or thrice a day, so refresh it twice or three times a day: ..."
"... As we ought to know from Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine" any event, whether man-made or natural, provides a window of opportunity for the corporate vampires whipped up by their armies of owned journalists, NGOs, dystopian trolls. There is indeed a plague upon Mankind, but it is not caused by sneezing and coughing, but by the influenza of evil. No wonder we say "Bless you" when somebody sneezes. The US is at war with Mankind and the enemies du jour are Russia and China. In this globalist world, when China sneezes, we all catch a cold. ..."
Another day, another round of shrill headlines. The coronavirus could spread to "every
country in the world" (like chickenpox), we might have to
cancel the Olympics . Ban handshakes! We're running out of masks !
Fewer than fifty people, total, have been infected across those two countries. The media are certainly taking to the task of spreading as much hysteria as they can, as
quickly as they can. The Guardian is especially on the ball, as they always seem to be when it comes to
spreading baseless, ephemeral fear. Firstly they have a neat little "fact check" piece, trying
to stop people gaining any sense of perspective.
This is a) clearly aimed at countering articles like this one that try to bring some realism
to bear (apparently that now counts as myth-making), and b)so deceptive it verges on a total
lie.
If you include every single known or estimated case of flu in the world then sure you can
bring the death rate down to 0.1%. But if you more properly compare
hospitalised flu cases with the hospitalised COVID19 cases, the regular flu actually has a
much higher mortality rate. 5.6% (in the US) compared with 1-3%.
So, why aren't they closing the world down to save us from this familiar but deadly
pathogen?
That's just the "facts" (formerly sacred), the opinion is even better.
Gabby Hinsliff, the
forgettable face of the dystopian future-builders , think's Britain is "too selfish" to
properly deal with the coronavirus these days (all 20 victims of it). Rounding on people who
haven't had their kids vaccinated, and rambling incoherently about the "greater good".
Meanwhile, Jonathan Freedland
talks about the "war on disease", slapping the West on the back for being "open and honest"
(unlike China and Iran), whilst taking aim at the only person he ever criticises now Jeremy
Corbyn is standing down as Labour leader – Donald Trump.
Apparently Trump should be doing more to combat the disease which, thus far, has infected
only 60 US citizens, none fatally. More Americans are in danger from high-fructose corn syrup,
or Flint's poisoned water (but as those can't be lazily attributed to the political monster of
the week, Freedland will never write about them).
But what is all this in aid of? It's hard to say, except that every authoritarian agenda
seems to be sticking its oar in.
More generally, we're being encouraged to think of the "big picture", that being curfewed
and quarantined and banned from travelling will all be best for the group. There hasn't been
much talk of mandatory vaccinations yet, but you see whispers of it here and there (that Gabby
Hinslif piece is very much a straw in the wind for that issue).
There's also the money angle. Not just the vaccine research grants or the tests being sold
and shipped out by the case, but also the stock market game. It's all over the headlines that
this "pandemic" is causing the biggest crashes in stock prices since 2008, but markets
declining are still opportunities to make a lot of money.
Buying stocks low and waiting for the market recovery, shorting currency, or the ridiculous
derivatives market (essentially gambling on whether stocks will go up or down). All can make
you a fortune if you play the recession right, which is made much easier when you can predict a
crash coming say, by stoking a lot of fear.
When a very similar real-life event started occurring, they would have a motive to start
trading some derivatives and stoking up the fear machine. It's easy money, like gambling on a
fixed game. The event was held by the NGO Center for Health Security , and sponsored by
Johns Hopkins' Bloomberg School of Medicine and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. (The
exercise ended with a list of seven recommendations, which you can read here .)
All the while, an important trial is getting no coverage at all, whilst Turkey might
actually start a full-fledged war with Syria. Crickets chirp in the media where these stories
might appear. Reality has no place in our headlines right now.
This is greatest mass-panic I can remember in a long time, maybe since Y2K. Either the world
is truly facing a global instance of mass hysteria, or some powerful hand is about to make a
big play.
Stay tuned.
Amarka
,
Coronavirus is a generic term for ALL
cold and flu viruses!
5 Million Cases of flu Worldwide,
650,000 Deaths Annually: The Seasonal Corona Flu Virus is a "Serious Concern", But the Wuhan
Coronavirus Grabs the Headlines
sharon marlowe
,
Another very good article from
OffGuardian on the virus panic. Thank you:)
"This is greatest mass-panic I can
remember in a long time, maybe since Y2K."
This quote got me thinking. I
actually don't remember Y2K being anything more than a curiosity. I don't believe that I knew
anyone who thought it was serious.
But I would say Daesh(ISIS) caused panic, even outside the Internet. I think Russia/Putin
caused panic, but mostly on the Internet. Of course, Trump caused panic, both on and off the
Internet. Trump caused a syndrome that people still haven't gotten over:D
But probably the three biggest panics that I've seen, here in the U.S., were the 9/11 event
and the housing crisis/stockmarket plunge.
sharon marlowe
,
*two biggest, not three:)
Dungroanin
,
Just follow the MONEY: https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php The overblown bubble is popping
– the usual centuries long play – over inflate assets, get the small investors
debt laden make profits from their borrowing against these assets then -POP the bubble
! And hey presto all the assets end up
with the bankers!
Just need a good story and a fall guy
villain to blame it on. This time the villain was to be China
and Xi. It seems the Chinese leadership were
aware of that danger and have moved too quickly for the bankers story to gain legs – it
also therefore seems to implicate skullduggery in Hubei.
It explains why the Donald is
sanguine and has handed the hot potato to his hapless VP – knowing it will be dropped!
A perfect opportunity to play the 'you're fired' line and replace with another running mate
just in time for the elections!
And if one scrys further it reveals
the direction to the media and the messaging, across the spectrum , as they deploy the play
and try to fire fight in the alt-media too.
Beyond the Gates Foundation and WEF
fronts are the REAL players.
Schiller long term correction
requires 30% drop.
Scalpers may want more.
Dungroanin
,
And right on cue to prove my
point
9:49 am Feb 29
A number of investment banks issued
global travel restrictions. JPMorgan issued a ban on non-essential travel on Thu.
GoldmanSachs, Citigroup, CreditSuisse, BNPParibas, DeutscheBank and other investment banks
have restricted travel to Italy.
Lol – sometimes you have to get
your own hands dirty when the dumb media hype is failing ..
Charlotte Russe
,
"Buying stocks low and waiting for the
market recovery, shorting currency, or the ridiculous derivatives market (essentially
gambling on whether stocks will go up or down). All can make you a fortune if you play the
recession right, which is made much easier when you can predict a crash coming say, by
stoking a lot of fear."
It's an instinctive reaction for
hedge fund vultures to swoop about ready to feast on every economic disaster by buying low
and selling high – this is how financial scavengers operate –they're capitalists to
the bone .. That being said, I doubt Xi Jinping and China's cabal of oligarchs took a
COVID-19 financial hit just to eliminate the orange buffoon in 2020.
In any case, the real issue is that
medical care in a civilized society should never be commodified. The barbarity of how
healthcare is accessed is revealed every time someone with substantial assets has exclusive
concierge treatment while millions are left to fend for themselves.
This is the consequence when profits
surpass compassion.
The carnage of millions is required
for a multibillion dollar medical industry to operate exclusively for profit–the deaths
of the poor, old, and sickly are merely viewed as collateral damage .
Longevity is based on being the most
physically and economically fit. This is the requisite libertarian mentality required to
complete the neoliberal main dish. Simply put, the implementation of worldwide neoliberalism
(gangster capitalism) requires the murder of millions–an economic phantasm which
thrives on collateral slaughter.
Economic sanctions against
nation-states like Iran and Venezuela is really economic warfare against indigenous
populations who die from lack of medical care. This is similar to how healthcare is dispensed
to indigent Americans–they're also sanctioned by the US medical system. The result is
the same– genocide.
Fair dinkum
,
"Listen to us, watch us, read us,
believe in us, bow down to us, buy this, eat this, drink this, wear this" _ _ _ _ etc, etc,
ad nauseum.
Give it a fucking rest you pricks, we're not all that gullible.
Vierotchka
,
The death rate from COVID-19 is 3.427%
and rising. Here is a good website which tracks
the progress of COVID-19 around the world – the number of confirmed cases, the number
of deaths and the number of recovered. It is updatetd twice or thrice a day, so refresh it
twice or three times a day:
'Good news! With 39,002 COVID19 recovery cases, the tally surpasses the total 37,414
confirmed cases as of Friday end, for the first time in the Chinese mainland:
NHC.'
&
'Hubei Province reported 423 new cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia on Feb 28, with 45 new
deaths and 2,492 cases of recovery. The total number of infections in the province climbed to
66,337, with 28,895 recovered and 2,727 dead.'
(Indicating mortality of 4.1%
average)
-- -- -
1. I haven't come across autopsy
reports confirming ncov19 in the deaths – have you?
2. I haven't come across what is the
definitive test for ncov19 – have you?
3. The confusion introduced by WHO in
creating a classification of COVID without a clear link to n-Cov19 is staggering!
4. There have been few genomes mapped
and the research quoted often is 'in silico' – i.e computer modelling
As a non-expert I think we (you, me
other non connected or compromised opinions) ought to collaborate in our head-banging ways to
rattle the truths out of the jar.
Hugh O'Neill
,
I think you doth protest too much.
As we ought to know from Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine" any event, whether man-made or natural, provides a window of
opportunity for the corporate vampires whipped up by their armies of owned journalists, NGOs, dystopian trolls. There is
indeed a plague upon Mankind, but it is not caused by sneezing and coughing, but by the influenza of evil. No wonder we say
"Bless you" when somebody sneezes. The US is at war with Mankind and the enemies du jour are Russia and China. In this
globalist world, when China sneezes, we all catch a cold.
At a news conference Wednesday, the president announced that the president was doing a
wonderful job handling the coronavirus, a statement that filled me with confidence, as it came
from the president himself. The vice president and HHS head also announced that the president
was doing a great job, and the president, at that point, officially put the vice president in
charge of coordinating the outbreak response.
...What's best is that even if he gets overwhelmed, Jared Kushner is there, a man who can be
counted upon to provide
a solution to any issue , no matter how complicated.
... ... ...
"I want you to understand something that shocked me when I saw it," the
president said at Wednesday's news conference. " I think most people are amazed to hear it.
The flu in our country kills from 25,000 people to 69,000 people a year. That was shocking to
me." This is just a sign of how the president is working carefully to understand the issue!
Once his great brain is applied to it, we need fear nothing.
Also, we do not need to worry
about the cuts to health programs his budget was asking for; we can always hire more doctors!
Once we hire them, it will turn out that they have been working on the virus for months and
developing expertise in combating it. Passionately, in their spare time, the same way the
response was being coordinated.
The good news is that many of the hot, humid countries don't have the money or technical
capability to test for COVID-19, so it won't be in their countries. Just like it is not in
the US, because if it was we would know even in the absence of testing.
This guy is saying that if there's a real pandemic, Doctors and Nurses won't show up
because Healthcare has become a career and not a calling. They wouldn't want to risk their
lives to save others, especially the poor ones.
An acquaintance repairs advanced medical imaging systems. The various units are tied
together using a router/hub, making the images accessible to PCs all over the network (e.g.,
radiologists, other specialists and permanent patient records).
The hubs are made in Wuhan, China. The end-use seller practices JIT inventory management.
Very few are kept in stock, since another FedEx shipment was just an order and a few days
away. Needless to say, the hubs have become unavailable These hubs are designed with
proprietary architecture, so the seller can screw the customers with exorbitant rent-seeking
pricing, so you can't buy them off the shelf someplace else.
Consider a large US hospital that has maybe a dozen of these imaging systems and their hub
goes down how does it get put back into service now? Answer: it doesn't.
One example or probably tens or hundreds of thousands others.
Servants to the Professional Managerial Class (PMC), Janitors, Secretaries, Food Services
Workers – Now is your chance for paid sick leave. Come to work with the Coronavirus,
cough on everyone. You can't afford to stay home. Paid Sick Leave Now.
I don't disagree, however, the bottom rungs of society, the working poor are going to do
this anyway, they CAN'T afford to stay home. How many pay checks can you miss at the bottom
– none. The PMC have told the rest of us to work or die, poor people understand this
and will work, even if they spread an infectious disease. The working poor are going to skip
getting tested if it interfers with getting paid, they will work until they collapse on your
desk.
This is going to happen, which is why it's not a call for revolution. It's just a
fact.
I did work at a company that switched from sick time to PTO, were sick time and vacation
counts the same.
Flu meant no summer on the beach. I went to work with flu. If the boss or coworkers got sick
it was of no economic consequence to me. The loss of my holiday on the other hand .
Perhaps this anecdote makes me a bad person, but I didn't change the rules, just played by
them.
Corona Virus is the same but worse since it can kill, however the symptoms are such that
if I were scraping along I would cross my fingers and not get tested. Ignorance is plausible
deniability, especially if I can't afford a test that tells me I can't work.
Well sure it makes you a bad person. Because when others get sick because of you coming
in, they MIGHT use their vacation time for sickness that you refused to. So you are just
FOBing it off on the next guy and making them lose their vacation instead of you. And some of
them may not even have paid time off (are they contract workers, what about the janitor
etc.?) But you've got yours.
I would give up summer on the beach in a New York nanosecond to be able to stay home sick.
Not even "for the good of society and infecting others", but for far more selfish reasons:
the pleasure of the vacation ISN'T WORTH the suffering it entails to work while feeling
aweful. When I have worked without any time off it made me long with all my being for time
off for things like sickness and doctors visits. My priorities got real real, real fast, and
it wasn't about vacation, but it was about seeing the doctor, what if I got sick, etc.. I
mean look if I lived in a country that believed in vacation then it would be one thing, but
we have to deal with actual reality here.
Agreed, I selfishly chose what was best for me. I did not optimize for the greater good.
Please note, the company made the same choice first.
I did make sure to tell my managers in advance of the consequences of the change to
PTO.
It's an interesting example of "economic man", I only followed my own interests, when I
had sick time, I took it and everyone was better off because of it.
I felt it was worth suffering at work to spend time off with family.
the situation in Korea is remarkably orderly -- -news reports/video of queues of citizens
waiting for 3+ hours to buy their face mask at pharmacies, post offices, stores -- definitely
a "keep calm and carry on" mentality.
would the situation in the US be similar if the US had a similar per capita rate of the
virus? Or would much of the US voluntarily hunker down?
i don't know the answer but really hope that Americans can band together -- but then again
the media and pundits give me no hope.
It seems to me that people who can afford to hunker down are the ones who have sufficient
$$ on hand or easily obtainable that they can stock up necessities. But the typical US
household cannot meet a $400 unexpected expense.
How does that saying go? "the wealthy do what they can, and the poor what they must"?
====
I have the sense that the case for "democratic socialism" is getting stronger by the day.
There may be vast political consequences to this entirely foreseeable but not foreseen
event.
I was told today that: If you got to a hospital in Korea to get checked for the virus, it
will cost you 160$. If you have it, the government will pay you back. If you don't you're
stuck with the bill.
If the government orders you for home quarantine, it will also pay you to stay home(I
don't know the rate though). If you violate the quarantine, it's $10,000 fine or something.
The church members are in a lot of heat because they refuse to follow the quarantine
orders.
In fact, the more efficient are supply chains and the logistics "on time" and "without
stocks", the more sensitive to disruptions. Quarantines doing more harm than good because the
"bug" can also go around, over or after the hurdles.
This joke from yesterday is still germane.
My relative was a senior contracting specialist for the federal government, who also
ordered supplies for the military. According to him, contracting specialists have always been
very aware of the need for redundancy and the many dangers of reliance on just one supplier.
I guess the efficiency geniuses, globalists, & disruptors at McKinsey have no clue. Why
do we always have to be reinventing the wheel?
Trump might not survive the Coronavirus, literally (he is over 70 and has a high range of
contacts; the mortality to this age group is close to 10%), or figuratively as voters might
not forgive him inadequate and/or incompetent response (which is given) .
Unfortunately, Bernie is at even higher risk as mortality for 80+ is over 15%, and
pre-existing cardiovascular disease is a serious negative factor.
One can wonder if this will be " Strawthat broke the camel'sback " for Trump. With 10% drop of S&P500 (aka "correction") it is difficult to
talk about booming economy on rallies ( 20% decline marker defines a recession and some
stocks -- like oil sector are already in this territory ). High yield bonds are also going
down, although more slowly. Now suddenly, Trump has nothing to talk about on his rallies, and
he knows it.
A part of rich retirees who are overexposed to stocks constitutes a sizable part of
remaining avid "Trumpers" voter block (kind of double stupidity, if you wish :-) , and some
of them might not forgive Trump the liberty of depriving them honestly earned in 2019 ~10% of
their 401K accounts.
IMHO troubles for Trump just started. Being incompetent DJT and his merry band of grifters
will almost definitely botch the response.
They already made three blunders.
1. When asked if, and when, a vaccine is produced, would the vaccine be affordable to
everyone? They replied; We'll let the "market" decide that. And some part of electorate
probably noted that.
2. The last December, they cut the budget for the CDC (center for disease control).
In this sense appointing Pence as the head of the coronavirus response may be a smart move
by Trump. When and if the pandemic hits big time, exposing the mass incompetence and
unpreparedness of the US government, in combination with the tanking of the stock market,
Trump can, of course, blame Christian Zionist neoconservative Israeli apartheid supporter
Pence for his troubles :-)
But, unfortunately, that will not do him any good.
At CDC it is important to know how to kiss ass, administer contracts, do public relations,
organize meetings, and write memos. Actual medical and research skills are far, far, far
down the list. Everything they do is contracted out and takes forever to happen. It is
impossible for the bureaucracy to respond to a crisis. One might as well ask a whale to
walk on land.
US peons are about to find out just what it means to live in a crumbling, hollowed-out
empire-shell made of corruption and incompetence. Hint: it's gonna suck.
The Revenge of the Intelligent. That is what this is. Too bad it has backfired and seems to
kill the Elderly at a much higher rate.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention isn't yet ready to detect whether the
coronavirus is spreading across the country.
Just 12 of more than 100 public health labs in the U.S. are currently able to diagnose
the coronavirus because of problems with a test developed by the CDC, potentially slowing
the response if the virus starts taking hold here. The faulty test has also delayed a plan
to widely screen people with symptoms of respiratory illness who have tested negative for
influenza to detect whether the coronavirus may be stealthily spreading.
...
Only six states -- California, Nebraska, Illinois, Nevada, Tennessee, and Idaho -- are now
testing for the virus, the Association of Public Health Laboratories told POLITICO.
...
Under current rules, each positive test must be confirmed by a second round of testing at
the CDC. [Director Robert Redfield] told lawmakers that the agency can now screen 350-500
samples per day.
...
"I understand very much the FDA is focused on quality control, but there's also a need to
have a system that can respond to their needs," [Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiology professor
at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,] said. "China tested 320,000 people in
Guangdong over a three-week period. This is the scale we need to be thinking on."
Stupid is as Stupid does. Totally inexcusable for the lack of a test, but exactly what
would be the most certain outcome with the pseudo education in the US for the last 30
years.
B said, in part;"The Trump administration seems to be far behind them."
Gee imagine that. For DJT and his merry band of grifters, this virus is just a liberal plot
to hinder their ability to make money, and disparage DJT's admin.
When asked if, and when, a counter measure is produced, would the vaccine be affordable
to everyone, they replied; We'll let the "market" decide that.
Incredible, but, consistently mercenary in today's " if you can't afford die" mentality,
here in the U$A..
And, last December, they cut the budget for the CDC (center for disease control)...
B said, in part;"The Trump administration seems to be far behind them."
Gee imagine that. For DJT and his merry band of grifters, this virus is just a liberal plot
to hinder their ability to make money, and disparage DJT's admin.
When asked if, and when, a counter measure is produced, would the vaccine be affordable
to everyone, they replied; We'll let the "market" decide that.
Incredible, but, consistently mercenary in today's " if you can't afford die" mentality,
here in the U$A..
And, last December, they cut the budget for the CDC (center for disease control)...
Appointing Pence head of the coronavirus response may have been a smart move by Trump. When
the pandemic hits big time, exposing the mass incompetence and unpreparedness of the US
government, in combination with the tanking of the stock market, Trump can blame Christian
Zionist neoconservative Israeli apartheid supporter Pence. He might even dump him and
select someone who he thinks will bring in more votes. It won't make any difference; Trump
is a goner. This time next year we will have been without the Golden Gollem of Greatness
for some 37 days.
For the life of me I don't understand why Mike doesn't get up and say hi I'm Mike
Bloomberg and I promise to put a chicken, a Covid 19 test kit, a hazmat suit and a respirator
in in every pot. In fact I'm going to go broke starting today doing just that.
And I'm going to make damn sure that if you are a community physician and Bethesda is not
listening to you I'm going to take your call and I'm going to throw as much money as needed
to make what needs to happen, happen.
And then walk off the stage.
Nobody from that moment forward would give a damn about his negatives. And I say that as a
Sanders supporter, who admittedly does not think that Elizabeth Warren is Jack Kemp in a
dress.
One thing that I do want to throw out to the commentariat is that we're going to see and
we're seeing it now, the dynamic where DC and Bethesda have their head up their ass and local
community providers scream bloody murder and that gets things moving.
For example where UC Davis Physicians want the CDC the test for the coronavirus and the
CDC says no, based upon what is now outdated criteria.
South Korea has done like what 20,000 tests they have drive-thru testing!
Back in the 1980s clinicians in Manhattan. (CRI/Sonnabend), and SF started small-scale
clinical trials especially focusing on opportunistic infection treatment which Bethesda was
completely neglecting as they were shoveling out AZT for HIV like it was candy.
Now the same dynamic is happening only with test kits.
"Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
Gee- +505 new #COVID19 cases in South Korea since yesterday, up 40% in one day! Crazy they've
done also >13,000 tests in just one day to find the new 505 cases.
US having our inefficient, chaotic and deadly healthcare system will make a pandemic far
worse. The idea that a person opposed to a rational and efficient national healthcare system
would be a good match for a pandemic is a bit absurd. Trying to plan a system like this is
infinitely more difficult. If he wants to help with a pandemic though, he doesn't have to be
president. Let him spend the money he would spend to buy the presidency in opening healthcare
clinics in rural areas and poor communities, people who would be least able to see a doctor if
they think they may be sick. And people who would be far more likely to use public
transportation, which would quicken the spread of the disease.
I used to live in China. Because of my work schedule there, I had to shop on the weekends.
It was a special form of torture. The buses would all be so packed you couldn't move, and the
stores themselves weren't tons better. Ever shopped in a store so packed with people you could
barely move? Imagine black Friday all the time. So, if a person had the virus and didn't know
it in China, they would almost certainly get around by public transportation, absolutely packed
with people, and then would go to crowded places to shop. When I say crowded, again, not
something that could be put into words for you all to understand, it must be experienced. The
situation in rural areas is often the same, high density, heavy reliance on public transport,
and there is far less of a healthcare infrastructure in rural areas. So, not only could people
be sick and not know it, not only would they get around in packed busses and trains, not only
would they shop and go about very densely populated cities, in rural areas people are poor and
access to doctors and nurses is often lacking. The government has tried to create in recent
years a "socialist countryside", where there are investments in rural areas, hospitals, public
housing and the like, but there is still a massive gap between living standards between coastal
areas and inner China, and rural and urban areas. Here in the US, one thing going for us is
that people in many parts of the country get around in private cars. That lessens the exposure
to a virus, which could maybe buy us a little more time, having such a car-centric mode of
transport. But, one thing we do have that other developed countries don't, is a horrible,
inefficient, chaotic healthcare system. And that is why things could get worse here in ways it
wouldn't if we had single payer. Bloomberg opposes a system that could deal with this, is
indifferent to 68,000 a year dying from this system, and seems even opposed to moderate
improvements that would at least inch us closer to such a system. And keep in mind, the costs
of the pandemic among those with insurance will be transferred to those paying into insurance
pools managed by private corporations. We will socialize costs in very inefficient ways. We're
doomed if he gets power. He and Biden should be non-starters.
CNN is reporting multiple medical personnel were exposed to coronavirus from the first
community spread victim because the CDC or whomever wouldn't allow testing since the patient
was outside of the federal guidelines. This is with doctors requesting it. This is with the
case occurring in the same county as Travis AFB, where people repatriated with coronavirus
are being quarantined.
Coronavirus will thrive because of corporatist, neoliberal, admin and management in
healthcare and government. Because the people in those roles are promoted and lionized for
their lack of imagination and inability to be perturbed by a threat to the status quo. Iran
is more a prediction of our future in the US than China. Can you even imagine a months long
heroic effort by American medial staff like the Chinese? Our medical pros at university
hospitals can't take enough precautions with a suspected coronavirus case to keep dozens of
them from being possibly infected.
The death of neoliberal magical thinking is going to require many deaths in the heart of
empire, while the economy crumbles. And even then, that may not be enough, if the heroin
epidemic is any indicator.
Virus Spreads Over The Planet As Governments React Too Slowly
After a uneven first response China did its very best to limit the spread of the nCov-19
virus and the Covid-19 disease the virus causes. The extreme quarantine, which began in mid
January, has come at a great economic cost but bought the rest of the world
time to prepare for the inevitable surfacing of the virus in other countries.
Unfortunately many governments did not use the month given to them and botched their
responses. The number of newly confirmed cases per day outside of China is now bigger than the new
daily number inside of China. South Korea alone reported 334 new confirmed cases today while
the much larger China only reported 433.
China has shown that it is possible to successfully fight and stop the epidemic.
Unfortunately other countries are not ready to follow its example. This is now making it likely
that the epidemic in China will become
a pandemic and will spread mostly uninhibited all over the globe.
South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy and the U.S. are now the countries which will see the next
great impacts. Other countries will follow in a third wave as Brazil, Pakistan, North
Macedonia, Greece, Georgia, Algeria, Norway and Romania all saw their first cases in the last
24 hours.
It's not clear where Patient 31 became infected with the virus, but in the days before her
diagnosis, she travelled to crowded spots in Daegu, as well as in the capital Seoul. On
February 6 she was in a minor traffic accident in Daegu, and checked herself into an Oriental
medicine hospital. While at that hospital, she attended services at the Daegu branch of the
Shincheonji Church of Jesus, on February 9 and again on February 16.
In between those visits, on February 15, doctors at the hospital said they first suggested
she be tested for the coronavirus, as she had a high fever. Instead, the woman went to a
buffet lunch with a friend at a hotel. In an interview with local newspaper JoongAng Ilbo,
the woman denied that doctors had advised her to be tested. As her symptoms worsened,
however, doctors say they once again advised her to be tested. On February 17, she finally
went to another hospital for the test. The next day, health authorities announced she was the
country's 31st confirmed case. In only a matter of days, those numbers had soared as hundreds
of people at the Shincheonji Church and surrounding areas tested positive.
On Saturday, the health minister admitted that 23 passengers had been released from the ship
without taking a valid recent test and had traveled by public transit after disembarking this
past week.
Now that the quarantine has ended and most of the passengers have left, the concern is
that they could start spreading the virus on shore.
Japan now has 200 cases and its government has decided to close all schools
throughout March.
In Iran the epidemic came from China with people who went to Qom for religious training. The
spiritual center of Iran has many religious schools and universities and many pilgrim visit the
shrines in the city. They contributed to the further spread of the virus. Iran now has a total
of 254 confirmed cases including two lawmakers, a
vice president and a deputy minister.
Yesterday Iran still rejected to close its shrines and to prohibited religious services.
Today it canceled tomorrows Friday prayers.
Italy
has some 400 cases of which 190 are confirmed. It put 55,000 residents in the northern
regions of Lombardy and Veneto under lockdown.
The above countries have now grasped the severity of the issue. The Trump administration
seems to be far behind them.
The U.S. is likely to already have a significant number of cases but a lack of testing
capacity has made any realistic estimate impossible.
Chinese scientists had published the genome sequence of the virus on January 12 and, based
on it, developed test kits within a few days. The U.S. Center of Disease Control and Prevention
also developed a test kit but had problems with its first version and its wider distribution.
More than a month later it is still not ready for
the foreseeable need:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention isn't yet ready to detect whether the
coronavirus is spreading across the country.
Just 12 of more than 100 public health labs in the U.S. are currently able to diagnose the
coronavirus because of problems with a test developed by the CDC, potentially slowing the
response if the virus starts taking hold here. The faulty test has also delayed a plan to
widely screen people with symptoms of respiratory illness who have tested negative for
influenza to detect whether the coronavirus may be stealthily spreading.
...
Only six states -- California, Nebraska, Illinois, Nevada, Tennessee, and Idaho -- are now
testing for the virus, the Association of Public Health Laboratories told POLITICO.
...
Under current rules, each positive test must be confirmed by a second round of testing at the
CDC. [Director Robert Redfield] told lawmakers that the agency can now screen 350-500 samples
per day.
...
"I understand very much the FDA is focused on quality control, but there's also a need to
have a system that can respond to their needs," [Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiology professor at
the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,] said. "China tested 320,000 people in
Guangdong over a three-week period. This is the scale we need to be thinking on."
It took several days to test a coronavirus patient in Northern California who might be the
first to have contracted the disease through community exposure in the United States.
The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento
County, according to the state Department of Public Health.
UC Davis officials said the patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another
hospital Feb. 19. But the patient was not tested until Feb. 23.
The test results were only known three days later.
Under the U.S. medical system testing will be expensive for the patients. Insurances may not
pay for it. Many people will be unable or unwilling to spend money on it. Care for serious
cases will also be limited by high prices. This guarantees that the virus will spread further.
China was smart enough to guarantee 100% state coverage for testing and all necessary care. The
U.S. should follow that principle but is unlikely to do so.
Trump announced that Vice-President Pence, a man who does not believe in science, will lead
the response. The libertarian and neo-liberal approach to the problem will further the
epidemic's growth. Only after it becomes really severe will the necessary measures be
taken.
To assess the wider global impact of the pandemic this table
is most helpful:
* Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by
the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown
does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group . Rather, it represents, for
a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
In an unrestricted pandemic the virus will infect between 40 to 70 percent of the
population. The virus is more deadly than a normal flu but mostly for elderly people with
severe preconditions. Children and grown ups in their most productive years can carry the
virus without showing symptoms and will only rarely become critical cases. This guarantees
that our societies will continue to function. The pandemic will have severe, but not
catastrophic, economic consequences as quarantines and fear will limit production and trade
on all levels.
Trump's reelection chances are sinking as Covid-19 cases rise. The incompetence of his
administration will come under new light. The stock markets will continue to tumble and erase
the economic gains Trump had claimed. Bernie Sanders' chances to win, if he survives the
pandemic, will increase as his prime campaign promise -Medicare for all- will become even
more acceptable when the problems with the current U.S. healthcare system come under new
public scrutiny.
There are only few personal measures one can take to protect oneself from exposure. One
should avoid personal contacts where possible. Wearing a mask, unless it is a special N-95
respirator which also makes it difficult breathe, does not prevent one from catching the
virus. But infected persons should use masks to protect those they may come in contact with
from droplet infections. Stocking up on basic foodstuff and other needs might help to avoid
potential shortages.
"The agency can be a force for good but only by letting innovators get life-saving
medications and tests to market."
Limited intelligence displayed in this article. Anyone who thinks pharma and lab execs are
anything but short-term shareholder value regardless of the public are kidding themselves.
That being said, there are ways to make it happen, though this author would never be able to
imagine them.
Make private lab testing subject to the following rules:
1. They are paid by the federal government, not the pharma companies.
2. They are selected by the federal government to perform the tests, not the pharma
companies.
3. Their labs and methods are regularly tested and approved by the federal government,
failure would mean a massive loss of revenue.
These simple rules ensure lab testing can be efficiently performed by the private sector
while working in the best interests of the population, not any individual pharma shareholder.
Far too complex a thought for our author though.
The relationship of the FAA to the commercial aircraft industry is analogous. When the FAA
was actively involved in all levels of testing, we managed to produce very safe aircraft.
When the FAA started relying on the aircraft manufacturers for testing, we get the 737 Max.
It is too tempting to take shortcuts when there are a lot of profits and bonuses to be
made.
Standard economic theory contends that manufacturers will be too concerned about their
long term reputations to cheat. Unfortunately for the theory, there are too many people
within the manufacturer that have incentives to grab as much as they can and move on before
the long term costs are apparent.
The government can be incompetent or corrupt, yes, but the private sector can also be
driven by desire for short term profit. Both have their weaknesses.
We seem likely to get the worst of both right now.
Maybe they're going slow because they recognize that this alleged "pandemic" isn't as bad
as everyone in the media and NYC world is making it. Going fast usually breaks things. See
Elon or Boeing or any other "tech" innovator.
Tens of millions of people die from viral influenza every year. Some estimates are over 60
million a year world wide. Some people who contract this new Coronavirus never get sick or
exhibit symptoms at all, some only get mild flu symptoms. In other words there's nothing
different here. Even if there were there isn't a damn thing that can be done about it now.
It's global and obviously airborne - everyone will get it. Coronavirus parties! Lets get it
over with
The cost of bringing a new medication to market is now more than $2 billion and patients
have to wait more than a decade to see life-saving drugs become available.
Does this regime also apply to flu vaccines? They release a new one every year. Are
these also decades in the making?
Car companies release "new" cars every year. Do they cost the same as the development of a
new car? Tweaks to an existing thing do not cost what development from nothing costs. The
yearly flu vaccine is tweaked depending on which strains they think will be prevalent given
current and expected environmental conditions. It is not a "new medication".
The face mask suppliers are doing a booming biz.
However... Eventually -- face masks will run out of supply. Then everyone will resort to
rubber bands attached to automatic coffee maker filters.
"... This is epic, very well written and thought of, and it matched the original lyrics tone very well. Well done Kathy, I love it! ..."
"... As someone working in the healthcare sector... Thanks for bringing some much needed laughter and humour for stress relief :) <3 ..."
"... So many perfect, funny lines that fit! Perfect physical comedy at the end. Great attitude that I am sure brightened up the day of many a confined person and gave a needed laugh in a sad time. Thank you so much! Make more like this! ..."
So many perfect, funny lines that fit! Perfect physical comedy at the end. Great attitude that I am sure brightened up the
day of many a confined person and gave a needed laugh in a sad time. Thank you so much! Make more like this!
This is PERFECT. Much needed humour at these trying times! Man supermarkets are like warzones these days. Though I'll still
buy that pasta, cheese, and corn thank you.
Health officials have been suggesting the use of face masks to prevent the spread and
transmission of the coronavirus, which is quickly spreading around the globe. But the real
question is do they really protect you from the virus?
The simple answer is yes, but efficacy is still not 100%. As masks sell out everywhere, it's
time to understand what they do to help.
If you decide to use a face mask, choose a NIOSH-approved N100 mask because it protects the wearer by fully covering the
mouth. An N100 mask will help prevent inhalation of 99.7% of airborne germs, which means they
aren't a totally fail-proof method.
N95 and N99 masks can also be effective. They are still your best bet IF you have a proper
fit and it is not loose on the sides. Protection from debris and materials that are larger than
0.3 microns or greater can be achieved with both N100 and P100 respirators, as well as N95 and
N99 respirators.
Since the general consensus has been that the coronavirus is expelled from an infected
person and remains on dust particles and water droplets in the air, these can be effective at
preventing the inhalation of infected debris as long as the fit is correct.
Also, it's important to note that the "N" designation means that these respirators are not
resistant to oil.
The "P" indicates that a P100 respirator is oil proof, meaning it should also work, but may
cost you a bit more. If that's all you can
find , however, it could boost your chances of not getting sick. But again, the mask needs
to fit correctly and that cannot be stressed enough.
Don't just use a mask and expect that to be enough either. Even if it's properly worn, it's
only about 80% effective, according to doctors. Take the same precautions you would with the
flu. Avoid public places and crowds, stay at least six feet away from others, and cover your
cough or sneeze.
Wash your hands well and sanitize the surfaces of your home frequently ( bleach works wel l and it's inexpensive), especially those
often touched. Teach your children proper handwashing techniques and send them to school with
hand sanitizer. Practice good hygiene and make sure you do the best you can to keep your immune
system running on all cylinders.
If this becomes a pandemic, you'll want to make sure you have stored extra food and water
to keep from having to go to the grocery store often.
The best way to beat the coronavirus is to not get it and not spread it. lay_arrow
BobPaulson , 2 minutes ago
The .gov advice to people on this drives me into a rage. All over the place, you see guys
like HuffPo saying "masks don't fully protect you, so we don't recommend them", then in the
same article they say the masks reduce transmission 70-80%!!! That is a massive improvement,
what the hell are all these news media up to all saying "they aren't perfect, so don't use
them". Can you imagine if they said that for condoms?
The point is they are more concerned with behaviour control (trying to stop mask hording
or facial recognition jamming) than letting helpful information into the public. It will kill
people.
Agent P , 12 minutes ago
It's a line of defense, not guaranteed protection. I wouldn't never discourage using a
line of defense. Besides, if someone is infected and wears a mask, it helps prevent spreading
the virus, so I say mask up, bitchez!
Daddy Cool , 25 minutes ago
Face masks work. Any person working in a hospital in the US is required to receive an
injection of a flu vaccine every year (originally mandated by Obamacare) even though face
masks are proven to ward against the flu much better than a vaccine that doesn't work half
the time. Since the flu vaccine became a requirement for healthcare workers the drug
companies profits for the flu vaccine are up over 1000%. Not to mention the toxins the flu
vaccine still contains even though they say it's perfectly safe.
E5 , 24 minutes ago
AND a decontamination protocol when you enter your home...
accept it. You and your family are going to catch this.
I am more concerned this will have the second bloom that SARS (it is SARS) has. It will
kill the children.
of course the idea that that 30% HIV genome actually leaves survivors with HIV is
unnerving
Many people are speculating that this coronavirus malarky is all about the coming global
financial meltdown.
The way coronavirus is being mega fear hyped, along with unprecedented 'lock-downs' and
enforced quarantine for huge numbers of people, does seem to suggest that the psychopaths who
rule us know that when the global financial meltdown comes there'll be mega civil unrest, and
what better way to control this unrest than a Frankenstein bug?
Coronarovis is an indiscriminate tool. That exclude using it as a weapon, as boomerang tends
to return. But propaganda campaign against China unleashed is a very real.
Also what is about the fact that the pandemic if occurs will crash the entire capitalist
system worldwide?
As the usual suspects fret over the "stability" of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the
Xi Jinping administration, the fact is the Beijing leadership has had to deal with an
accumulation of extremely severe issues: a swine-flu epidemic killing half the stock; the
Trump-concocted trade war; Huawei accused of racketeering and about to be prevented from buying
U.S. made chips; bird flu; coronavirus virtually shutting down half of China.
Add to it the incessant United States government Hybrid War propaganda barrage, trespassed
by acute Sinophobia; everyone from sociopathic "officials" to self-titled councilors are either
advising corporate businesses to divert global supply chains out of China or concocting
outright calls for regime change – with every possible demonization in between.
There are no holds barred in the all-out offensive to kick the Chinese government while it's
down.
A Pentagon cipher at the Munich Security Conference once again declares China as the
greatest threat
, economically and militarily, to the U.S. – and by extension the West, forcing a wobbly
EU already subordinated to NATO to be subservient to Washington on this remixed Cold War
2.0.
The whole U.S. corporate media complex repeats to exhaustion that Beijing is "lying" and
losing control. Descending to sub-gutter, racist levels, hacks even accuse BRI itself of
being a
pandemic , with China "impossible to quarantine".
All that is quite rich, to say the least, oozing from lavishly rewarded slaves of an
unscrupulous, monopolistic, extractive, destructive, depraved, lawless oligarchy which uses
debt offensively to boost their unlimited wealth and power while the lowly U.S. and global
masses use debt defensively to barely survive. As Thomas Piketty has conclusively shown,
inequality always relies on ideology.
We're deep into a vicious intel war. From the point of view of Chinese intelligence, the
current toxic cocktail simply cannot be attributed to just a random series of coincidences.
Beijing has serial motives to piece this extraordinary chain of events as part of a coordinated
Hybrid War, Full Spectrum Dominance attack on China.
Enter the Dragon Killer working hypothesis: a bio-weapon attack capable of causing immense
economic damage but protected by plausible deniability. The only possible move by the
"indispensable nation" on the New Great Game chessboard, considering that the U.S. cannot win a
conventional war on China, and cannot win a nuclear war on China.
A biological warfare weapon?
On the surface, coronavirus is a dream bio-weapon for those fixated on wreaking havoc across
China and praying for regime change. Yet it's complicated.
This report is a decent effort trying to track the origins of coronavirus. Now compare it
with the insights by Dr. Francis Boyle, international law professor at the University of
Illinois and author, among others, of Biowarfare and Terrorism . He's the man who
drafted the U.S. Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989 signed into law by George H. W.
Bush.
Dr. Boyle is convinced coronavirus is an "offensive biological warfare weapon"
that leaped out of the Wuhan BSL-4 laboratory, although he's "not saying it was done
deliberately."
Dr. Boyle adds, "all these BSL-4 labs by United States, Europe, Russia, China, Israel are
all there to research, develop, test biological warfare agents. There's really no legitimate
scientific reason to have BSL-4 labs." His own research led to a whopping $100 billion, by
2015, spent by the United States government on bio-warfare research: "We have well over 13,000
alleged life science scientists testing biological weapons here in the United States. Actually
this goes back and it even precedes 9/11."
Dr. Boyle directly accuses "the Chinese government under Xi and his comrades" of a cover up
"from the get-go. The first reported case was December 1, so they'd been sitting on this until
they couldn't anymore. And everything they're telling you is a lie. It's propaganda."
The World Health Organization (WHO), for Dr. Boyle, is also on it: "They've approved many of
these BSL-4 labs ( ) Can't trust anything the WHO says because they're all bought and paid for
by Big Pharma and they work in cahoots with the CDC, which is the United States government,
they work in cahoots with Fort
Detrick ." Fort Detrick, now a cutting-edge bio-warfare lab, previously was a notorious CIA
den of mind control "experiments".
ORDER IT NOW
Relying on decades of research in bio-warfare, the U.S. Deep State is totally familiar with
all bio-weapon overtones. From Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki to Korea, Vietnam and Fallujah,
the historical record shows the United States government does not blink when it comes to
unleashing weapons of mass destruction on innocent civilians.
For its part, the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) has spent a
fortune researching bats, coronaviruses and gene-editing bio-weapons. Now, conveniently –
as if this was a form of divine intervention – DARPA's "strategic allies" have been
chosen to develop a genetic vaccine.
The 1996 neocon Bible, the Project for a New American Century (PNAC), unambiguously stated,
"advanced forms of biological warfare that can "target" specific genotypes may transform
biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool."
There's no question coronavirus, so far, has been a Heaven-sent politically useful tool,
reaching, with minimum investment, the desired targets of maximized U.S. global power –
even if fleetingly, enhanced by a non-stop propaganda offensive – and China relatively
isolated with its economy semi paralyzed.
Yet perspective is in order. The CDC estimated that up to 42.9 million people got sick
during the 2018-2019 flu season in the U.S. No less than 647,000 people were hospitalized. And
61,200 died.
This report
details the Chinese "people's war" against coronavirus. It's up to Chinese virologists to
decode its arguably synthetic origin. How China reacts, depending on the findings, will have
earth-shattering consequences – literally.
Setting the stage for the Raging Twenties
After managing to reroute trade supply chains across Eurasia to its own advantage and hollow
out the Heartland, American – and subordinated Western – elites are now staring
into a void. And the void is staring back. A "West" ruled by the U.S. is now faced with
irrelevance. BRI is in the process of reversing at least two centuries of Western
dominance.
There's no way the West and especially the "system leader" U.S.
will allow it. It all started with dirty ops stirring trouble across the periphery of Eurasia
– from Ukraine to Syria to Myanmar.
I would believe anything of the US government, but: that they are capable of actually
carrying out such a fiendish plot? I doubt their competence as much as I know their
corruption.
As far as escaping from a lab, I work in science, and I can say with certainty: these
biosafety labs are leaky. Human beings simply cannot maintain the required safety protocols
without a single lapse for years/decades, it can't be done. So if China had such a virus in a
lab in Wuhan, it is very plausible that it would escape into the general population.
Side note : all countries keep putting their labs with dangerous pathogens in the
middle of big cities. It makes it easier to staff them with qualified people, but it's BLOODY
MADNESS. For example, after 9/11, a concerned US congress decided to fund the construction of
new research centers with hazardous organisms in dozens of major cities all over the country.
I feel safer already
And finally: if this was indeed a US plot, as usual they have shot themselves in the
foot. Remember: the US elites have (treasonously) shifted the bulk of US manufacturing to
China. If this virus really hammers China's economy, it will also hammer the US economy,
because of all those US-owned factories in China. And don't forget that China is the
source of most of the pharmaceutical the US uses
At this point, shutting down trade with China would hurt the US elites more than it
would hurt China.
Ability of that authority to declare something to be an absolute priority and then direct
resources to it.
Chinese culture values social responsibility higher than individual rights.
China is actually a nation. Genetically related oeople with a common story, a common
identity, going back 5000 years. America, by contrast,, is a collection of individuals from
all over the world who just happen to live in the same legal jurisdiction.
@clickkid Escobar's essay is not that different from that of Metallicman, published on
this site only a week or so ago. If some American madmen are behind this Coronavirus
pandemic, and I pray they are not, there will be global war. No doubt Chinese leadership is
planning its retribution even as I write.
@Jason Liu China is totally backward when it comes to propaganda and isn't able to
compete with the US's/West's devilishly sophisticated propaganda machine. CGTN pales by
comparison with Russia's RT and is often like watching the BBC. They use the crude tool of
censorship instead of a more sophisticated offensive strategy like Russia does with RT,
trying to get its version of events across to people in the West. It's a major strategic
weakness. East Asian's supposed deficits in 'verbal intelligence' seem to hold them back in
this domain.
First case detected on Dec. 1st. That doesn't say when the infection started.
Another factor here is that the period between contracting the virus and its becoming
symptomatic and detectable is sometimes 30 days, not two weeks. The long and short of it is
that the delay between the timing of the games and the timing of the identification of the
early cases of COVID-19 fits very well the scenario of USA as source. Its circumstantial of
course. The time argument doesn't on its own prove the US did it.
The other long and short of it is that the public is being messed with by all the
obfuscation on where the disease comes from. When someone disagrees, the biggest serial liar
media offenders often just say "conspiracy theorist," as if this cliche actually explains
something. Of course there are laws and a UN Convention prohibiting preparation for
biological warfare so no national government is likely to volunteer it has been breaking the
law, not China or not US.
There is lots on record to suggest US actually does biological warfare, not just
studies it. The evidence is considerable, for instance, that the US government was behind the
bioweapon attack on Congress in Oct. of 2001 in order to clear aside the resistance of
Senators Leahy and Daschle to the passage of the Patriot Act. Of this phenomenon Prof.
Francis Boyle has commented
"The Pentagon and the C.I.A. are ready, willing, and able to launch biowarfare when it
suits their interests. They already attacked the American People and Congress and disabled
our Republic with super-weapons-grade anthrax in October 2001."
Prof. Boyle has put the anthrax attacks in the context of the 9/11 psy op as follows:
"Could the real culprits behind the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001, and the
immediately-following terrorist anthrax attacks upon Congress ultimately prove to be the
same people? Could it truly be coincidental that two of the primary intended victims of the
terrorist anthrax attacks – Senators Daschle and Leahy – were holding up the
speedy passage of the pre-planned USA Patriot Act an act which provided the federal
government with unprecedented powers in relation to US citizens and institutions?"
I like to disagree with one important point in the article. Dr Boyle statement that the
CoronaVirus "leaped out of the Wuhan BSL-4 laboratory" is an anti-China propaganda.
Evidence ( posted on UNZ and elsewhere) show that the U.S. is the most likely source of the
Virus.
Yes, it is a Biological warfare weapon introduced by the U.S. in a very important time of
the year. China was very careful and open about its efforts to contain the Virus. China
managed very well to stop its spread, never mind the few tourists who left China taking the
Virus with them
Dean Koontz had it all figured out in his 1981 novel, The Eyes of Darkness . Like
in 3 Days of the Condor I believe the CIA read novels to get ideas.
@Alfred The elderly in other cultures aren't just geriatric fools who expect respect and
feel entitled to loot their children for the great job they did at ruining their countries
with debt and immigration.
The respect for the elderly mantra exists only within cultures with high mortalities where
being old was hard. Stop complaining like an easy woman wanting the respect studly men get.
All you did to get to your age was breathe longer than the rest of us.
And writers don't have the onus to educate their readership. Only bad writers feel the
need to explain everything so that senile idiots won't feel excluded. Good writers focus on
the flow of ideas.
And you'd know that if you'd have published any academic article where prior knowledge is
implied and documentation for prior ideas is provided.
FYI, anybody with at least two functioning neurons would have told the correct PPP is the
first Google result from the context in which it was used.
@TG You have nailed why US globalist economic policy is not merely stupid; it is akin to
treason.
And then there's this – "China largely beats the U.S. on patent filings and produces
at least 8 times as many STEM graduates a year than the U.S., earning the status of top
contributor to global science."
The US wastes fortunes bribing girls to go into STEM, and trying to find any smart
Numinous Negroes to follow suit.
@Rollmop Global White identity only exists in the minds of Americans as America was in
its early days a pan-European project. In Europe the nationalists are still involved in their
little squabbles with eachother.
The US government works for the multinational corporations. Their supply lines are drying
up due to China's shutdown. For instance 97% of American antibiotics come from China. P&G
has issued a statement all their products are being impacted. American car makers are having
part problems. So if this is a war act, its really an act of stupidity on the deep state's
part. Or maybe China took the hit of offing some old folks to sink the U.S.? Prof Boyle
suggested on Alex Jones this could be bioweapon to attack Russia to kill off Russians for
much needed real estate. It's Infowars, but Russia did shut the border fairly quickly.
Personally I think these all labs are in cahoots with each other. They are employed by the
one precent-transhumanist crowd, and working on some weird stuff to kill us off. China just
did what China does, cut some corners. Oops!
@P. McSorleyI believe the CIA read novels to get ideas.
Brilliant. I agree. The CIA gets ideas from novels.
They also use novels and movies to exaggerate their own prowess and successes. I once
tried to read a fat novel by Tom Clancy with that character Jack Ryan. Stomach churning
stuff. I couldn't read more than a few pages. My American nephews loved it.
The Russians have a very simple way of finding out who is CIA at any embassy. They look at
what sort of car the guy drives and where he lives and whether he keeps a mistress. Since
they earn a lot more than real diplomats, they always give themselves away. They just cannot
keep away from the toys.
@Jason Liu Its not exactly lets trade and leave each other alone.
Its warfare according to a different set of rules. In ancient times China was divided into
many small states, like in Europe, who were constantly at war with each. Like in Europe,
these wars were extremely vicious, cruel, and self-destructive. Like in Europe, there seemed
no way out of the cycle of aggression. It seemed that humanity must eventually destroy itself
and have no future.
The best Chinese minds of the time tried to figure out a way out. Lao Tzu thought the
solution was "inaction" – non-response to aggression. Sun Tzu developed this theme
– he didn't think aggression could be entirely avoided, but he tried to develop means
of warfare that relied on deception, illusion, managing appearance, and using the minimum of
effective force only when necessary.
In the Chinese rules of war, in order to avoid destructive mass bloodshed that might
destroy humanity, aggression is channeled into deceptive practices. In this system, you're
allowed to steal technology, deceive, bend the rules, gain illicit influence, etc –
this isn't supposed to lead to actual war. If you get caught, some kind if negotiation is
supposed to settle the matter.
Now, this system is very wise – it accepts realistically that human aggression is
regrettably not going away, and it tries to channel it into less destructive forms.
The problem is that today it is clashing with the European based system, which is based on
different principles. Europe faced the exact same problem China did – extremely
destructive warfare between small states with no end in sight, seemingly leaving no future
for humanity.
But Europe developed a different answer – a rules-based system where you aren't
allowed to cheat at all. Aggressive tendencies are supposed to be channeled into competition
within a set of clearly defined rules, like a sports match – where cheating ruins the
whole point of the competition and actually demonstrates the opposite of dominance and
success.
A necessary element of the European system was the suppression of national pride, which
left unchecked quickly leads to warfare. In the Chinese system, however, national pride
doesn't need to be suppressed, just the manner of fighting has to be channeled by tacit
agreement.
So we are dealing with two clashing systems designed to deal with the exact same problem
– and it's tragic because really both sides want to have a system that limits and
channels aggression a way from self destructive forms, but are going about it in opposite
ways.
I guess that will lead to aggression and war – and from the ashes a new system will
develop that everyone agrees on. Or the clash of the two systems will create some sort of
hybrid.
Like in 3 Days of the Condor I believe the CIA read novels to get ideas.
I believe you have the concept not exactly backward but inside-out: novelists like Koontz,
Baldacci, Silva, Thor, Meltzer, David Ignatius -- a raft of others who have made it to
NYTimes best seller status, are (I speculate) on some US department payroll to prepare or
socially engineer the public to begin to perceive as normal and acceptable things like
assassinations (i.e. Daniel Silva's plot lines parallel Ronen Bergman, Rise and Kill
First);
infiltrating other nation's universities, research labs to turn scientists into traitor-spies
for USA (David Ignatius -- The Increment, Quantum Spy);
Almost everything Baldacci writes is "ripped from the headlines" of the latest foreign policy
scandal -- sometimes even before the headlines become headlines.
USA has been doing this at least since WWI.
Public libraries in the US are a major outlet for US government propaganda pumped out in
collaboration with major publishing firms.
Public libraries spend hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of dollars -- tax payer
dollars– on these pop culture novels -- far more than is spent on balanced coverage of
US wars.
I was still young and innocent when I started to notice that the bad guy, either the main
bad guy or at very least some ancillary bad actor is German, Iranian, Italian, Arab. If
Nazis/Holocaust/Hitler/white supremacists are not mentioned in one of these NYTimes best
seller-dude's books it's a rarity.
There was never a Jewish villain in these pop novels: the Jewish character was always benign,
kindly, a victim, or a helper, but never an evil doer.
Then -- face palm: NYTimes best seller. You know, where you'd find David Irving, and Carlo
Mattogno and Arthur Butz -- that NYTimes.
John B. Hench's Books as Weapons: Propaganda, Publishing, and the Battle for Global
Markets in the Era of World War II is an eye-opener, disturbingly so: Hench is retired VP
of the American Antiquarian Society -- a harmless, maybe dotty old man, right?
Wrong.
I've come to think of Hench as a depraved warmonger, one step removed from a neocon who
applauds as Germany and Western Europe were raped of their own culture while American
publishing houses raced to fill the vacuum with their ideas -- and revenue-generators–
of what Europeans and the rest of the world ought to read and think and believe.
@denk Part of the reason the Western rules based system is breaking down today is in
response to the challenge of a China playing by a different set of rules.
As I said, I don't think China is a chaotic or malicious actor – they are just
playing the eternal game of human aggression and competition by a different set of rules that
Chinese culture developed in order to avoid endless warfare and guarantee humanity a
future.
It is hard for Westerners to grasp, but in its own way when China steals technology and
uses deceptive trade practices it is as noble as when the West competes within clear, rigid
rules that leaves many people as losers and with harsh, bleak lives.
From one perspective, the Western system of fair play based on rigid rules is extremely
inhumane and harsh, creating as it does so many broken lives and losers, despite being "fair"
and "honest". From another perspective, the Chinese system is manifestly dishonest and
unfair, despite being based on the noble desire to avoid the immense suffering caused by
endless warfare.
The problem is human aggression – as long as you accept that human aggression has a
place in life, you must accommodate immorality in some form. The question then becomes which
is is the least damaging form that leaves most space for human goodness, and different
cultures answer this differently – and now two different answers, both based on good
intentions, are clashing.
Practical moral philosophy must, at least in the foreground, be based on mitigating
aggression rather than eliminating it. That is the most moral stance one can take in
practical philosophy.
When some actual eyewitness who was actually there in whatever lab developing whatever
bio-weapon and knows actually what was done with it and who did it, when, where, how, why
comes forward to a trustworthy media source right, all three of them to actually tell the
truth about all this, let me know. Because right now I trust absolutely no media source on
this: MSM, alt-left, alt-right, alt-whatever. It's all opinion or forced-fake news, IMHO, to
line someone's or some group's pocket.
@AaronB You're not allowed to cheat in the European system? Lol what kind of nonsense is
that? That is not reflective of Euroculture.
Just look at Italy with its mafia or France with its massive corruption.
You can say that about Anglos with its attempt at the rule of law, but even that is
deceptive as it was never universal and ended up as a means of one group to scalp
another.
@AaronB The west rules bases system is breaking down because it was never legit to begin
with.
From the beginning it was not universal. There were people it applied to and people it did
not apply to.
In modern times, the west can only blame themselves for the collapse. The wests voracious
appetite to have something for nothing is breaking down because it is running out of people
to colonize and stronger countries like China, Russia, and Iran are fighting back.
But, it is passing strange that China has had so many viral "problems" over a relatively
short period of time.
Not so.
A huge rural population living in close proximity with pigs, chickens and fish (raised in
ponds and paddies), all harboring viruses or other agents capable of transmission to humans,
with much coming and going between urban and rural populations by means of China's
magnificent new roads and railways, China is a natural spawning ground for novel human
pathogens. And China has been spawning novel human pathogens since at least the
Fourteenth-Century Black death.
What is a "CIA/Falun Gong operation"? Are you saying the CIA created Falun Gong, or they
infiltrated it, or that Falun Gong infiltrated the CIA, or what? And what's the evidence for
this relationship, whatever it is?
@Tor597 Sure, but no system is perfectly followed. There are always infractions, some bad
actors, subverters, lapses, and loopholes.
The same can be said about China's system – it didn't always prevent bloodshed and
war, and was often imperfectly followed. Revolutions were not uncommon.
But both systems worked fairly well for decent lengths of time. Although the West's system
is post WW2, so its hard to say how it would have stacked up in the long run.
The important thing is to realize these systems both have a moral logic to them –
they are serious and noteworthy works of practical moral philosophy.
Perhaps today, as in many areas, better systems can be designed that combine elements from
both traditions. Christianity has instilled in the West a basic aversion to deception –
this isn't the place to discuss the metaphysical assumptions that this is based on, but
suffice it to say the East has always thought deception can be moral in certain uses –
for instance, Buddhism developed the notion of "upaya" (skillful means), where a statement
may not be strictly true but may be a relative truth that has a legitimate use in advancing
spiritual growth. This is based on very different metaphysical assumptions about the nature
of reality – basically, that everything revealed to us by our senses and mind are only
relative truth anyways.
Now, of course I am not saying that the West doesn't engage in deception – of course
it does. But Western moral philosophers are reluctant to make deception part of a moral
system – failing to realize that a system of honest competition may be very harsh and
inhumane on those it leaves behind, and ultimately lead to bloodshed and war.
By contrast Sun Tzu, who more than just a brilliant strategist was a great moral
philosopher whose main concern was preventing the immense suffering and bloodshed involved in
war, recognized the moral uses of deception. In the West, only Machiavelli recognized the
potential moral dimension of deception.
Escobar is a lively writer and sometimes says something I didn't know. But this is just
boiler plate, Unzite, paranoid, anti-American, drivel. I started making a note of the crazy,
unsupported assertions, such as:
From the point of view of Chinese intelligence, the current toxic cocktail simply cannot
be attributed to just a random series of coincidences.
the incessant United States government Hybrid War propaganda barrage, trespassed by
acute Sinophobia
everyone from sociopathic "officials" to self-titled councilors are either advising
corporate businesses to divert global supply chains out of China or concocting outright
calls for regime change
There are no holds barred in the all-out offensive to kick the Chinese government while
it's down.
Until I realized I'd have to note almost the entire article.
What's more, with one or two possible exceptions, no one here know's nuthin' more than
Escobar, and it is likely, given the general obscurity of complex biological events, that the
world never will know how the current China-originated viral pathogen emerged.
But since almost everyone's bullshitting, here's my theory. The novel corona virus is
particularly deadly to old folks, while it manifests as little more than a cold in the young.
Thus, Trump and Xi plotted together to release this virus to rectify China's demographic
problem, and America's too: an aging population. Thus will Social Security in America be
saved: by getting rid of the most expensive recipients.
@AaronB I think that a lot of your general thesis is correct.
However, I do not think that wars leave no future for "humanity."
European countries fought many wars from the Middle Ages all through to the Mid 20th
century, and yet, their populations grew.
Having a war every 20 years that kills 10% of the young men still does not greatly affect
your population's prospects. I believe that most warrior nations understand and accept this.
I believe that MOST white people understand and accept this.
But European violence and patriotism did threaten other groups. (You are Jewish, right?)
warring Europeans might threatens certain other groups' survival, such as Jews and maybe
native Americans (although it seems *relatively* few Americans were actually murdered by
whites).
The peaceful, globalized world actually is far more threatening to the survival of the
Western man than were the days of war. We are headed down a path where, in 150 years, whites
will be a tiny minority of every Western city. Racial amalgamation will leave few whites in
US, Canada, UK, France, (maybe) N. European countries, by 300 years, except for "rural
backwaters," to use the terminology of the anti-alt-right intellectual Eric Kaufman.
War neurosis – the extreme commitments we must make to end all wars – is
genociding us. War is preferable to genocide.
@Anon Sure, endemic small scale war isn't a threat to civilization. It can even be fun
and healthy, for those inclined. This is a kind of limited war, often fought according to
limiting rules – chivalry was one such system. Trying excessively to eliminate this
kind of thing can do more harm than good, I agree.
But there is a kind of total war that becomes extremely vicious and destructive and which
is felt as so horrific and threatening to civilization that it becomes a "problem" to be
solved.
In Europe, the Wars of Religion were such an episode, and the Thirty Years War in Germany
– which reduced the population by an incredible 30% and left in its wake depopulated
villages inhabited by wolves – was a representative sample. This inspired strenuous
efforts by thinkers in Europe to find a solution to what was seen as qualitatively different
than previous wars. From this was born many key elements of the modern liberal order, such as
religious tolerance, free speech, compromise, a commitment to reasonableness, etc.
WW1 of course was the next such episode, and inspired the further development of ideas
that mitigate the ferocity of total war – like anti-nationalism, which was thought to
be a massive contributing factor to Europe's self-immolation, and the League of Nations.
Now, I do take your point that solutions have to be found that are not worse than the
disease, but the problem is a very grave one for humanity – especially now with nuclear
weapons.
Please not, I am not recommending the abolishment of war, i.e human aggression and
competition. That would be impossibly utopian. So competition and aggression are a given
– what is the best way to mitigate it?
The recent Western way of extreme anti-nationalism coupled with total competition within
transparent rules that leave no sympathy for the losers is, as I mentioned, a sub-optimal
system.
Whether or not the United States has the knowhow and the will, I just don't think the
relevant part of the US elite have the moral courage to do it.
Sean, you comment frequently on China, especially on the growing rivalry between the US
and China. It seems like every other day or so you make a comment on this. Furthermore, you
often claim in these comments that because of China's economic growth and its potential to
become economically larger than the US, the US will in the very near future engage in
military action to curb China's economic growth.
Given the fact that US military action against China would be far more dangerous, risky,
and destabilizing, and potentially risk a world war and nuclear war, why do you think that
it's a near inevitability that military action and war against China will be undertaken by
the US elite in the near future to curb Chinese economic growth, but that a covert operation
deploying a severe flu primarily harming older impaired people and mainly causing economic
and political damage to China and disrupting its economic growth is somehow totally out of
the realm of possibility?
Isn't military war and potentially risking world and nuclear war much riskier and
requiring much more courage?
Basically, white people are high minded people trying to institute the rule of law and
Asians are sneaky bastards trying to conceive their way through life. You have that
perspective because you are white.
You say it worked for a very long time, but worked for whom? It didn't work for black
people who were enslaved, nor for red people who were wiped out, nor for yellow people who
were colonized, nor for poor white people who were also enslaved and genocides.
The people at the top, white Anglos in America, did well for awhile. But that does not
make it moral.
If anything, what defines white people us this path of winner takes all where there is an
elite that makes out but everyone else gets exploited.
@CanSpeccy It's not paranoid, PNAC literally mentions using bioweapons and how it is a
useful tool. Plus Darpa has done a lot of research into Corona Virus as a weapon.
" combat likely will take place in new dimensions: in space, "cyber-space," and perhaps
the world of microbes advanced forms of biological warfare that can "target" specific
genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful
tool."
@Tor597 I was trying to show how the so called rule of law can be harsh and inhumane, and
how deception can be a way to channel aggression into more manageable forms.
I am trying to introduce nuance into the ordinary view.
@Anonymous First of all nuclear weapons are a deterrent to nuclear war, not conventional
war, because the threat of an incredible action is not a credible deterrent. If a China
mounts an offensive to take Vladivostok (to teach Russia a lesson) then Russia is going to
fight conventionally. No one is going to start a nuclear war, although they all would
retaliate to a nuclear first use.
Given the fact that US military action against China would be far more dangerous,
risky, and destabilizing, and potentially risk a world war and nuclear war, why do you
think that it's a near inevitability that military action and war against China will be
undertaken by the US elite in the near future to curb Chinese economic growth, but that a
covert operation deploying a severe flu primarily harming older impaired people and mainly
causing economic and political damage to China and disrupting its economic growth is
somehow totally out of the realm of possibility?
Clearly a a covert operation deploying a severe flu for causing economic damage to China
is by no means an impossibility if it was the action of some tiny clique inside the Deep
State. But they would have to be acting alone because as I tried to explain in the gist of
mycommnet, the US elites are not like the Chinese elite , which is coelesed in the
Chinese Communist Party. American elites as they have a plurality of interests; being Deep
State, Wall St, political officials and elements of the executive and the economic elites are
the most deeply invested in China. Even Trump is backing off the tariffs because he knows
China cannot be taken down sharply without hurting the average person in the US.
This outbreak seems to be not very bioweapon like because it has not killed young people
of many people. An actual bioweapon would be about as carefully guarded as nuclear weapons,
which is very carefully indeed by special military police and with officers demanding
triplicate countersigned before releasing them. For drone hitting that Iranian the officers
asked to see the written order. The slightest slip up with protocols for nukes is the end of
a officer's career. You cannot get them out their repositories without multiple top level
authorisation, except in the movies.
Even if the scientists created such a bioweapon without asking questions as to the
provenance of the order, it would be obvious to them it was intended to be used in peacetime
to be releases and would necessarily kill innocent people and all over the world including
America would not be handed over targeting Chinese would have to be the product of a very
well funded program authorized by someone in authority. It would not be under the CIA, but a
different institution. Dubious that the US even has the capacity to create a super flu, let
alone one that that kills mainly Chinese and not too many of them. Much too obvious to just
start an outbreak in China, and so the US Deep State would use Russia as a cat's paw if it
was doing it.
The odds are that because of China's economic growth and its potential to become
economically larger than the US, the US and China are fated to get into military pressure,
possibly proxy war . However, the Chinese know that is best avoided while they are still in a
vulnerable stage with an economy than needs to become more powerful. Once they are a strong
as you know what they will act like it.
Mearsheimer writes: "My theory of international politics says that the mightiest states
attempt to establish hegemony in their own region while making sure that no rival great
power dominates another region. The ultimate goal of every great power is to maximize its
share of world power and eventually dominate the system." Because no power can truly make
itself a global hegemon – resources are too finite, distances that attenuate power
too great – the most any state can realistically hope to accomplish is to enforce its
own rules in its geographic environs while keeping others from posing a serious
extra-regional threat.
Trump is the worst thing that has happened to China and I really do not think he can be
seen as part of one of the US's aforementioned elites. The Deep State hate Trump, and I think
this is because they–still fixated on the Cold War–see Russia as the threat. That
China is infiltrating and hollowing out the America is not something the Deep Staters worry
about , apart from Gen (Ret) Rob Spalding who was forced out daring to
talk about the issue
@robert_spalding
"In sum: Whoever rules the words rules the world. In the eyes of the CCP, the West's
superior discourse power is an existential threat more imminent than the remote possibility
of a foreign military invasion."
Even Trump is backing off the tariffs because he knows China cannot be taken down
sharply without hurting the average person in the US.
This outbreak seems to be not very bioweapon like because it has not killed young people
of many people.
It does not follow that just because an outbreak doesn't kill everybody that it cannot be
a bioweapon. That's like saying the assassination of Soleimani couldn't have been a US drone
strike because it didn't kill the rest of the Iranian military and government.
Trump is not "backing off the tariffs" on China. Most of the tariffs remain in place. The
point of tariffs is to gradually reduce the US trade deficit with China and to slow down
Chinese economic growth. It's not supposed to be a sharp dislocation that causes too much
sudden pain to most average Americans. A putative bioweapon behind this outbreak would be
similar in that it would not be too deadly and too much of a sudden escalation.
In the eyes of the CCP, the West's superior discourse power is an existential threat
more imminent than the remote possibility of a foreign military invasion.
And we've been seeing this superior discourse power during the coverage of this outbreak,
shaping perceptions and reality for people around the world. This discourse power is more
powerful and a greater threat to China than the virus outbreak itself.
@Tor597 AaronB is not talking about the world of American slavery or European
colonialism, he already told you that. If you read his comments, he is talking about what
European countries began to do after the World Wars ("Although the West's system is post
WW2").
He is talking about the post-colonial world of the UN, trade agreements, international
law, etc. The world is not one of winner-take-all for white people anymore.
Also, I'm pretty sure that AaronB is Jewish, so he is not going to be too pro-white.
It's not paranoid, PNAC literally mentions using bioweapons
Well obviously bioweapons exist for possible use, as with every other type of weapon.
But no war has been declared and there is no reason for a state of war to exist.
The US an China have a massive bilateral trade relationship by which both parties benefit.
Why would either declare war or engage in surreptitious war against the other?
And why, if they intended to wage war, would the US use a biological weapon that would
inevitably come back on them?
Your assumption is completely unsupported by real evidence and anyway makes no sense.
@Anon That is an arbitrary point to argue. Post WW2 was not like an age of enlightenment
for white people or anything.
During this stage white people still brutally colonized the rest of the world. See the
Korean war, Vietnam War, Iraq War, assasinations, etc etc. This is actually a worse period
for the rest of the world because it is when the west established itself as the most
powerful, and used its power to establish hegemony throughout the world.
This was definitely not the period of the rule of law or some other nonsense.
By the way, it still is a winner take all world for white people. It's just that it's not
for all white people. Only the whites at the very top benefit, while the poor non elite
whites get harvested like everyone else.
@Naill Well it bodes pretty well with my experience of Mainland Chinese. A decade back
the unemployment office sent me over to a local business that I got hired on with, it is
owned by a mainland Chinese dual citizen who reserves all the good positions for his
nepotistic family hires, even making fake unnecessary positions for them, some even live in
other states, check in on the computer once or twice a day and get a direct deposit paycheck.
I've found them to be EXACTLY LIKE THE FERENGI ON STAR TREK. Whoever wrote those Ferengi
episodes centering on Quark's Bar on Deep Space 9 must have had first hand experience with
Mainland Chinese. Foul, selfish, offensive, cheap, and arrogant. They are also quite
incompetent and peddle total junk that doesn't work. I can't believe the government lets this
crap into the country, on Amazon and Ebay you can bypass the professional purchasing managers
who know their craft in the brick and mortar stores. Now I know a whole lot of these online
sellers at Amazon are really Mainland Chinese infesting our country peddling shoddy goods.
The brothers at work joke and call it "fake ass shit" it's not outright counterfeits, just
strange off brand knock offs with domestic Chinese consumer grade quality. They are also big
liars, I don't believe a word they say.
There is no official war declared, but we are in a new Cold War with China. This is
obvious even though it is not stated directly. See the trade wars, war against Huawei, fight
for control in Africa and the ME.
Both parties benefit from trade, but China more so. This is mainly because our banking
system is parasitical and serves to extract wealth instead of creating wealth.
But never the less, the powers that be in America see the writing on the wall. If momentum
Carrie's through as is, China will surpass the west and become too powerful to contain.
The real threat to America is the threat to dollar hegemony. At some point China could
have an alternate to the dollar, and at that point America could not just print money.
America would just be like any other country and have to earn wealth the hard way.
Biological warfare, especially one targetted by race, is pretty much the only card America
had left to play. America could not win a conventional war. Neither could it win a nuclear
war.
America could win a biowar, since there is plausible deniability and the intention was to
wreck China while America was left unaffected.
@Anonymous I think there are problems with thinking it is a bioweapon at all; much too
specialised and asking scientist to develop something like that and then ordering it used by
the CIA would be impossible. I don't think the people would obey orders because they would
know they were illicit. A huge reason for doubting it is a bioweapon is it surely is beyond
the state of the art at present. Even if it was not this is not the kind of thing that would
be developed except for surreptitious peacetime use, as the scientist s commissioned to
create it would understand. Moreover they would know too much in the aftermath, and knowingly
be signing their own death warrant; they would not be left around to talk. Inasmuch it looks
very like another of the Chinese bat origin flus, and is hitting immune compromised
especially the old hardest, there is no compelling reason to think it it is anything but a
naturally arisen disease.
It could be a incredibly sophisticated bioweapon, yet supposing that was true the Chinese
(who are no fools and have their own scientists) would know that had been attacked and return
the favour by tweaking it to kill Americans and releasing it in America, wouldn't they? And
all that is assuming the original bioweapons scientists could know how lethal it would be.
They would have to have tested it to gauge its lethality, and yet how it would spread in a
city (speed of spread affects virulence) would be impossible to know with any degree of
certainty. It could infect most of the world's population and kill orders of magnitude more
people than projected quite easily. I think people tend to assume that secret services like
007's Q, have all kinds of capabilities far beyond current state of the art, and they are
staffed with fanatics who are, without question comment or misgivings, willing to flush their
life down the toilet just because some superior tells them to. Malevolence does not confer
capability .
There's still a lingering desire for "let's trade but leave each other alone". That's
not gonna happen. It was never gonna happen. I hope they smarten up.
I don't think China is as naive as you think. Why is it that all our high schools are now
teaching Chinese as a foreign language? Practically all the teachers are from China, paid for
by the Chinese government. In addition, many of our colleges now have a "Confusion
Institute", again paid for by the Chinese government. People of Chinese descent in the US,
regardless of whether they are or were Chinese citizens, find the CCP mouthpiece China
Daily mysteriously appearing in their driveway every Friday, unless they call some
mysterious number to stop it. They get knocks on their doors from China people they've never
met asking if they spoke Chinese.
The Chinese government has been secretly recruiting ethnic Chinese in the US to work on
their behalf for years now. The US is playing a dangerous and stupid game. You cannot
simultaneously launch a war against China and then continue to accept large numbers of
citizens from that country into the US, giving them student visas, 10 year tourist visas, EB5
visas, work visas, green cards, citizenships. These people can only be loyal to China, no
matter what passport they hold. If the US is to win this war, the first thing we need to do
is repatriate every single Chinese citizen in this country, present and former. Send them
packing or we will have the fifth columnists working against us from within.
The US an China have a massive bilateral trade relationship by which both parties
benefit. Why would either declare war or engage in surreptitious war against the other?
And why, if they intended to wage war, would the US use a biological weapon that would
inevitably come back on them?
Geopolitics is a zero-sum game. The more powerful country X becomes, the less powerful
country Y does.
The more China trades with the US and other countries, the greater its economic growth,
which translates to greater political and military power. The greater the Chinese political
and military power, the lesser the power of the US in the zero-sum game of geopolitics.
The Trump administration and many in the US foreign policy establishment have said that
the trade relationship with China, regardless of its economic benefits, is a problem because
it supports Chinese economic growth, which then supports Chinese political and military
power. The point of the tariffs and moving supply chains and production out of China is to
reduce or slow down the Chinese economic growth which supports China's political and military
power.
A bioweapon like this coronavirus in this context is the perfect weapon. It slows down
China's economy and image as a trade partner around the world, promotes the movement of
supply chains and production out of China and back into the US or into US allies, builds up
political capital for China hawks who want greater decoupling from China and a more hostile
stance towards it, and its collateral damage is relatively low such that even if it hits the
US it will not be too devastating but like a severe flu outbreak.
This bioweapon needs to be seen as an alternative weapon, not as a military weapon whose
efficacy is measured solely in terms of physical casualties. It's an economic, political,
cultural, psychological weapon. It should be viewed as akin to tariffs, sanctions, media
propaganda.
Remember that former Sec. of State Madeleine Albright responded affirmatively when she was
asked if the sanctions against Iraq were "worth it" even if as it was estimated half a
million children had died as a result of them. The human toll of those sanctions supported by
the US against Iraq were far worse than this outbreak in China.
@Sean It's well established that this sort of research and development into bioweapons
has been going on for decades in many countries.
Yes, retaliation would be bad, but if the possibility of retaliation were sufficient to
prevent any kind of initiative, nothing would ever happen. Things do happen. Moreover,
retaliation would accelerate decoupling and hostilities, which would not be unwelcome from
the point of view of those who would choose to go down this road in the first place.
This was definitely not the period of the rule of law or some other nonsense.
Law does not mean benevolence – it means competition within certain limits, that are
clear and transparent, that limits the level of aggression. It does not mean benevolence.
I did not suggest the West was acting in a benevolent manner – I suggested it
devised a system of limits on aggression, a set of clear rules, for the purpose of preventing
aggression from getting out of control. Within those limits, selfish aggression is
permitted.
It is based on the idea that it is impossible to eliminate selfish aggression from the
world, so the practical moralist tries to prevent it from getting too destructive.
So I wasn't idealizing the West. Morally, I do not see why brute force is better than
cunning, although the person who excels at brute force may well wish to convince others of
that.
Brute force and blunt confrontation may lead to devastating bloodshed, as the West
discovered most recently in WW1 and 2 and China discovered in ancient times. Moving away from
brute force and towards cunning may be a way to save lives.
I am not promoting this morality – no good person would act with cunning or force
for selfish ends. It is certainly not a morality one should personally practice. I am saying
that if we wish to constrain the most selfishly aggressive people in society, we have to
accept their disposition as it is and try and push it into channels that will allow them to
carry on their competition in wats that won't destroy civilization.
@Alfred There's another one.
During the SARS1 attack, JOn Rapopport was one of my go to guy
He correctly identified SARS1 as an economic warfare against not only China, but Asia.
SARS AS ECONOMIC WARFARE
May 12. Toronto will suffer half a billion dollars worth of lost business. Economies in
Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and mainland China are taking heavy hits. Global airline $$
have fallen off.
Trade wars go on all the time, and the US versus Asia is no exception. The US CDC has
pitched in to put a major crinkle in Asia's economies
The current SARS2 [covid 19] is obviously the hot phase of Trump's economic
blitzkrieg , just see how [[[they]]] are salivating for a economic melt down in China
.[[[Gordon Chang]]] is finally vindicated LOL !
Yet Rapopport has gone full retard about 'a Chinese FF to cover up their smog and
suppress their dissidents' !
Jeeze !
what happens to these people, have they
been doing limited hand out all these years in order to earn some street cred and
they'r showing their true color now ???
that shows that for the last six days the number of 'New Recovered' cases is larger than
'New Confirmed' cases by a factor close to 2. This means that at least China was able to
arrest the epidemic.
"... There currently 80,348 cases, or 0.000011% of the global population. Over 77,000 (97%) cases, and 2664 deaths (98%) are from China, and a large portion of those were "clinically diagnosed" (ie. untested). The 2707 deaths (allegedly) due to Coronavirus mean it has death rate of just 3.4%. (For cases outside China, that number drops to 1.6%) Conversely, over 40,000 cases are considered mild, and over 27,000 have been cured. ..."
"... Some (including US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ) are claiming the disease is being under-reported by China (and Iran), and the panic is a response to much more alarming but hidden statistics. ..."
"... similar claims were made about SARS, Swine Flu and all the other non-event overhyped 'death bugs' we have been told about in recent times. ..."
"... At this stage, it might seem more likely that 'new CV' is just another one of these. The latest scare tactic being used to close down rational thinking in the world populace and normalise increased government control. ..."
"... coronavirus is definitely being used to spread and deepen Sinophobic hatred, by organisations of Evil like the villainous BBC. ..."
In Hubei Province, China, where the 'new' virus was first diagnosed, and where the vast majority of the cases have occurred, it's
no longer considered necessary to test for the presence of CV antibodies before diagnosing the disease.
Let's say that again.
The epicentre of the so-called new virus outbreak is currently diagnosing new cases of the disease without testing for the
virus.
Instead they are relying on 'clinical diagnosis'
, which is defined as [our emphasis]:
The estimated identification of the disease underlying a patient's complaints based merely on signs, symptoms and medical history
of the patient rather than on laboratory examination or medical imaging.
Which means physicians look at presenting symptoms and make a guess on what is causing them.
Now if you're talking about something like Smallpox that option can make some sense – because Smallpox presents with one very
distinct clinical feature – a recognisable rash – that makes it fairly easy to distinguish from other viral agents or other disease
processes.
But the 'new' coronavirus does not do that. In fact, symptoms of the 'new' CV are exactly like symptoms of the numerous 'old'
CVs, and indeed of the common cold or flu. Cough, fever, malaise, upper respiratory tract inflammation and (in severe cases) lung
involvement – up to and including full-blown pneumonia.
The only way to differentiate a case of 'new' CV from severe regular flu, viral pneumonia or even environmental lung disease,
is by testing for antibodies. If they aren't doing this, physicians in Hubei Province are now at grave risk of essentially diagnosing
every single case of pneumonia or lung inflammation they see as the new CV.
Which goes quite a long way to explaining the sudden increase in cases [our emphasis]:
China's Hubei province reported an additional 242 deaths and 14,840 new cases as of Feb. 12 -- a sharp increase from the previous
day. The province said it is starting to include "clinically diagnosed" cases in its figures and that 13,332 of the new cases
fall under that classification .
By CNBC's figures, fully
89% of the "new cases" reported in Hubei province have never been tested for the virus .
According to Our World in Data , roughly 180,000 people die
of pneumonia in China every year. Under this new system, all of those people could be diagnosed with coronavirus .
Further, "signs of pneumonia" don't have to be a sign of any disease at all. Pneumonic symptoms can come simply as the result
of
being
exposed to a heavily polluted air , something very common in China's densely populated urban centres.
A major question here has to be – why? Why take a step that inevitably increases the number of false positives? Why intentionally
inflate the apparent caseload? What rational benefit can there be in that?
Is it some form of hyper-caution? They would rather throw the net too wide than risk missing cases?
Or is it, as Jon Rappoport suggests , a cynical bid to drive up
the numbers in pursuit of ever-valuable fear porn?
That this alleged outbreak is being used to promote fear as a backing for a number of control-based agendas is undeniable, and
we have already pointed this out in previous articles
(not to mention the financial
aspect ). The simple truth is that the reality of this 'new' virus, even as defined by those promoting panic, does not merit
the fear being sold to us on its behalf.
Here are some stats for you, compiled by Kit Knightly.
There currently 80,348 cases, or 0.000011% of the global population. Over 77,000 (97%) cases, and 2664 deaths (98%) are from
China, and a large portion of those were "clinically diagnosed" (ie. untested). The 2707 deaths (allegedly) due to Coronavirus mean
it has death rate of just 3.4%. (For cases outside China, that number drops to 1.6%) Conversely, over 40,000 cases are considered
mild, and over 27,000 have been cured.
For the sake of further reassurance, study these tables:
<table omitted -- see the original for full text>
Essentially, unless you are either elderly or already sick, there's very little chance you are in danger.
On what rational basis can a disease with this profile possibly justify the government and media response worldwide? Are we really
approaching a
"tipping point" ? Does this sound like a
"public health emergency" ?
Some (including US Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo ) are claiming the disease is being under-reported by China (and Iran), and the panic is a response to much more
alarming but hidden statistics.
Well, that is possible of course. But similar claims were made about SARS, Swine Flu and all the other non-event overhyped
'death bugs' we have been told about in recent times.
At this stage, it might seem more likely that 'new CV' is just another one of these. The latest scare tactic being used to
close down rational thinking in the world populace and normalise increased government control.
That the Chinese government might be party to any such idea might seem unthinkable to those who like their geopolitics simple
and binary, but can't be rationally excluded.
Time will tell of course. But if – as we consider overwhelmingly likely – this 'new' scare bug turns out to have been as overhyped
as all the rest, maybe those panicking in our comments and elsewhere will learn a valuable lesson, and decline to play along with
this particular sick little game next time?
Since Foxconn is getting into mask development, we're surprised Apple hasn't released plans
for an iMask, or scheming Elon Musk hasn't touted a Cybermask.
To sum up, we could all be wearing masks one day – if you think that's crazy just look
at what's happening across Asia. Mask wearing is coming to America – it's only a matter
of time.
This is mostly fear mongering as an affective bioengineered virus will create a pandemic, but
the truth is that Anthrax false flag attack after 9/11 was not an accident...
Trump administration beahaves like a completely lawless gang (stealing Syrian oil is one
example. Killing Soleimani is another ) , as for its behaviour on international arena, but I do
not believe they go that far. Even for for such "ruptured" gangster as Pompeo
Notable quotes:
"... Consider that a deadly virus created by the U.S. and used against another country was found out and verified, and in retaliation, that country or others decided to strike back with other toxic agents against America. Where would this end, and over time, how many billions could be affected in such a scenario? ..."
"... "In vast laboratories in the Ministry of Peace, and in experimental stations, teams of experts are indefatigably at work searching for new and deadlier gases; or for soluble poisons capable of being produced in such quantities as to destroy the vegetation of whole continents; or for breeds of disease germs immunised against all possible antibodies." ..."
"... Additional notes: here , here , here , here , here and here . ..."
Interestingly, in the past, U.S. universities and NGOs went to China
specifically to do illegal biological experimentation, and this was so egregious to Chinese
officials, that forcible removal of these people was the result. Harvard University, one of the
major players in this scandal, stole the DNA samples of hundreds of thousands of Chinese
citizens, left China with those samples, and continued illegal bio-research in the U.S. It is
thought that the U.S. military, which puts a completely different spin on the conversation, had
commissioned the research in China at the time. This is more than suspicious.
The U.S. has, according to this
article at Global Research ,
had a massive biological warfare program since at least the early 1940s, but has used toxic
agents against this country and others since the 1860s . This is no secret, regardless of the
propaganda spread by the government and its partners in criminal bio-weapon research and
production.
As of 1999, the U.S. government had deployed its Chemical and Biological Weapons (CBW)
arsenal against the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Vietnam, China, North Korea, Laos, Cambodia,
Cuba, Haitian boat people, and our neighbor Canada according to this article at
Counter Punch . Of course, U.S.
citizens have been used as guinea pigs many times as well, and exposed to toxic germ agents and
deadly chemicals by government.
Keep in mind that this is a short list, as the U.S. is well known for also using proxies to
spread its toxic chemicals and germ agents, such as happened in Iraq and Syria. Since 1999
there have been continued incidences of several different viruses, most of which are presumed
to be
manmade , including the current Coronavirus that is affecting China today.
There is also much evidence of the research and development of race-specific bio-warfare
agents. This is very troubling. One would think, given the idiotic race arguments by
post-modern Marxists, that this would consume the mainstream news, and any participants in
these atrocious race-specific poisons would be outed at every level. That is not happening, but
I believe it is due to obvious reasons, including government cover-up, hypocrisy at all levels,
and leftist agenda driven objectives that would not gain ground with the exposure of this
government-funded anti-race science.
I will say that it is not just the U.S. that is developing and producing bio-warfare agents
and viruses, but many developed countries around the globe do so as well. But the United
States, as is the case in every area of war and killing, is by far the world leader in its
inhuman desire to be able to kill entire populations through biological and chemical warfare
means. Because these agents are extremely dangerous and uncontrollable, and can spread wildly,
the risk to not only isolated populations, but also the entire world is evident. Consider
that a deadly virus created by the U.S. and used against another country was found out and
verified, and in retaliation, that country or others decided to strike back with other toxic
agents against America. Where would this end, and over time, how many billions could be
affected in such a scenario?
All indications point to the fact that the most toxic, poisonous, and deadly viruses ever
known are being created in labs around the world. In the U.S. think of Fort Detrick, Maryland,
Pine Bluff Arsenal, Arkansas, Horn Island, Mississippi, Dugway Proving Ground, Utah, Vigo
Ordinance Plant, Indiana, and many others. Think of the fascist partnerships between this
government and the pharmaceutical industry. Think of the U.S. military installations positioned
all around the globe. Nothing good can come from this, as it is not about finding cures for
disease, or about discovering vaccines, but is done for one reason only, and that is for the
purpose of bio-warfare for mass killing.
The drive to find biological weapons that will sicken and kill millions at a time is not
only a travesty, but is beyond evil. This power is held by the few, but the potential victims
of this madness include everyone on earth. How can such insanity at this level be allowed to
continue? If any issue could ever unite the masses, governments participating in biological and
germ warfare, race-specific killing, and creating viruses with the potential to affect disease
and death worldwide, should cause many to stand together against it. The first step is to
expose that governments, the most likely culprit being the U.S. government, are planting these
viruses purposely to cause great harm. Once that is proven, the unbelievable risk to all will
be known, and then people everywhere should put their divisiveness aside, stand together, and
stop this assault on mankind.
"In vast laboratories in the Ministry of Peace, and in experimental stations, teams of
experts are indefatigably at work searching for new and deadlier gases; or for soluble
poisons capable of being produced in such quantities as to destroy the vegetation of whole
continents; or for breeds of disease germs immunised against all possible antibodies." ~
George Orwell – 1984
It seems that Japan's feared bureaucracy has handled the issue without
the advice from any specialist. Cruise ships are perfect to spread diseases. They have
central air condition and central septic systems that can spread viruses to every room on
board. There are many places on board which are commonly used. The crew is usually housed
in less than perfect conditions. Any suspected cases should have been taken off board
immediately. But these were simply told to stay in their cabins which they, of course, did
not do.
The Japanese military has some troops working on the ship but they are only now taking
protective measures which are still
less than sufficient :
About 50 staffers from the Self-Defense Forces are working on the vessel to examine the
passengers, disinfect cabins and transport patients. The ship was quarantined for two
weeks off Yokohama on Feb. 5 to prevent COVID-19 from spreading in Japan.
Those handling medicine are now required to wear masks, gloves, gowns and hair caps,
ministry officials said.
At a news conference, Kono admitted that the Defense Ministry applied the standards --
which are higher than those in use by health ministry officials working on the vessel --
after viewing a video from the ship posted by Dr. Kentaro Iwata of Kobe University
Hospital, who joined the disaster-relief team as a veteran infectious disease
specialist.
On Wednesday 500 Japanese passengers who had tested negative
were let go from the ship without further measures. But many of them will carry the
virus as more new confirmed cases from the ship still appear daily. These people should
have been further isolated. Letting them leave without such measures guarantees that new
outbreaks will soon appear throughout Japan.
This situation might have developed due to political pressure. Japan is supposed to hold
the summer Olympics later this year and it may have wanted to avoid bad headlines. To me it
seems that there will be no Olympics this year and that Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
will soon hear some harsh
public criticism .
Another big clusters established itself in Daegu, South Korea, where people from a
Christian sect infected each other during mass. There are currently some 130 such cases and
some 70 more spread elsewhere in South Korea.
Iran has a smaller cluster in Qom with 14 cases. It closed all schools and seminaries
and suspended religious gatherings in the city. Other countries report single new cases or
small clusters. This will continue as the disease races around the world. Large new
outbreaks will appear in those many countries which have less than perfect medical systems
or where the authorities want to suppress news of a smaller outbreak.
In the Ukraine rioters had to be brought under control when they protested
against quarantining evacuees from China near their villages.
The economic ripple effect of this epidemic and of the enormous quarantine in China will
be huge. It will be felt everywhere but especially in highly developed
industries :
The impacts on China both intrinsic and psychological are still vastly under estimated.
This is the largest containment/effective imprisonment via quarantine of human being in
world history. People are assuming no ripples from that.
The biggest factor that's not understood is the non linearity of supply chains. A two
week total shut down *does not* mean a two week delay in products to consumer. This is
very different from the tariff impacts, where pricing was adjusted.
A single component missing in a 500+ part product means all levels of production are
moot. Autos and consumer electronics are obvious examples. We have heard from multiple
auto players and Jaguar has publicly stated they have sub 2 weeks of operating
inventory.
Just In Time (JIT) production is a form of operational leverage. And like all forms of
leverage, there is a non linear downside effect. People are not putting it together that
this is a very big deal. It's not a 1 month hit. It's not a 1 quarter hit. It's an annual
hit *right now*.
Some large factories which depend on parts from China will soon have to shut down. Then
their other suppliers will also have to cease production. The loss of income will be felt
throughout the local economies.
The effects of the epidemic may well lead to an end of the globalization of production
processes. Companies will go back to buy locally to be as unaffected as possible from
similar future incidents. This might well be the most positive long term outcome of this
epidemic.
Some large factories which depend on parts from China will soon have to shut down. Then
their other suppliers will also have to cease production. The loss of income will be felt
throughout the local economies.
The ones who are insured won't be monetarily affected. The uninsured will. This may
trigger a bubble burst in the West, though.
The effects of the epidemic may well lead to an end of the globalization of production
processes. Companies will go back to buy locally to be as unaffected as possible from
similar future incidents. This might well be the most positive long term outcome of this
epidemic.
Globalization had already halted after 2008. That was the material base for the
so-called "populist" rise in the Western Civilization. Populism is a symptom, not the
cause, of the halt of globalization.
That doesn't mean, though, the the western countries are heading towards socialism. This
is specially the case with the First World countries, which have powerful armies, and thus
can restore (at least in part) their economies through dispossession of the weaker (Third
World) countries. The working classes of the First World tend to fascism, not
socialism.
That's why China is countering the death of globalization with OBOR. For socialism to
rise, there needs to be world prosperity. If the pot is small, fascism will rise again.
Infodemic continuing to spread.
Gullible people continuing to fail to understand that the real issue isn't the coronavirus,
it is the fear which the infodemic (and outright agitprop) is feeding - and which many of
these people are exacerbating.
China supplies enormous amounts of everything the world uses except energy.
Even food - China doesn't supply as much of the raw, but provides an enormous amount of
processing/handling.
And yes, "just in time" combined with the Lunar New Year holiday and a greatly prolonged
re-ramp time is going to impact everyone, everywhere.
The only question is how much.
The effects of the epidemic may well lead to an end of the globalization of production
processes. Companies will go back to buy locally to be as unaffected as possible from
similar future incidents. This might well be the most positive long term outcome of this
epidemic. I wholeheartedly agree but I have some trouble reconciling this with your
support of the EU and the British remainers.
Pepe Escobar writes about the possibility
that the virus is a bioweapon --but produced by whom? He looks at the Outlaw US
Empire's Hybrid War against China:
"There's no question coronavirus, so far, has been a Heaven-sent politically useful
tool, reaching, with minimum investment, the desired targets of maximized U.S. global power
– even if fleetingly, enhanced by a non-stop propaganda offensive – and China
relatively isolated with its economy semi paralyzed.
"Yet perspective is in order. The CDC estimated that up to 42.9 million people got sick
during the 2018-2019 flu season in the U.S. No less than 647,000 people were hospitalized.
And 61,200 died."
As far as I know, the bioweapon hypothesis has yet to be 100% disproven. IMO, it isn't.
I know how bacteriums and viruses share their DNA such that as I wrote previously humans
must always treat them as their #1 enemy/threat as they're potentially very deadly. It's
also a big mistake for the Outlaw US Empire to gloat about China's misfortune as it's not
immune whatsoever.
I read Escobar on your comment. He does have the Chinese and Persian perspective well in
hand. I still remember Trump at Mar-a-Lago treating Xi to 'beautiful piece of chocolate
cake', and bombing the Syrians.
A threat thrown at Xi and China. That was very telling and the threats, sanctions, have
occurred ever since non stop. This virus is all too convenient and once the dust settles we
may have some reciprocal action.
It is also hard to imagine how "first-world" countries will control the virus if it ever
does get a foothold, since they are scared of their own shadows and can't possibly compete
with the PRC when it comes to ruthlessness (at times there may be advantages to living in a
dictatorship ..)
Container shipping from Chinese ports has collapsed since the outbreak of coronavirus and
has yet to show any sign of recovery, threatening weeks of chaos for manufacturing supply
lines and the broader structure of global trade.
Almost half of the planned sailings on the route from Asia to North Europe have been
cancelled over the last four weeks. A parallel drama is unfolding on routes from the
Pacific Rim to the US and Latin America.
Lars Jensen from SeaIntelligence in Copenhagen said the loss of traffic is running at
300,000 containers a week. This will cause a logistical crunch in Europe in early March
even if the epidemic is brought under control quickly.[.]
Refrigerated ships full of frozen food are unable to enter Chinese ports because
berths are full.... cannot tap into electricity. No dockers or drivers.
In Europe Fiat Chrysler has suspended production. Jaguar Land Rover are flying in parts
in suitcases from China to UK.....
=========
Not just Europe. It's global. Could tip the world into a deep recession. Shortages
abound from everyday essentials,[Walmart, Family Dollar, DollarTree, Home Depot] food,
pharmaceuticals and manufacturers.
Food!!? Yes. garlic in the produce area.
You shop at Costco? Cheesecake - loaded with sodium benzoate- with milk being the last
ingredient listed on the label.
Good question: As one analyst asked; over the next 3-4 months who will want to open a
container from China or buy anything marked "Product of or Made in China?
I do not think the Chinese will counter-attack for this US bio weapon attack.
Why is it that many people dismiss this event as being biological warfare launched by
the US against China? Because it is too horrific. We know that the empire murders by the
thousands and millions without the slightest hesitation or guilt, but for some reason we
assume that even the empire is not so vile and malevolent as to use biological weapons. We
assume that the empire has some sort of conscience that will moderate its behavior, even
though we've never seen evidence of it.
These are people who built armies of literal head-choppers... death squads. They
gleefully murder respected statesmen on diplomatic missions. If they can do nothing else
then they will run you off the road just because they are hatefully psychotic.
This collectively psychotic culture cannot back down from their aggression if they are
losing, so they always escalate that aggression as far as they can.
America is losing its trade war with China, but is running out of economic weapons. From
within its bubble of psychosis America feels it has no choice but to escalate beyond
economic weapons. What other weapons can America possibly use to defeat China at this point
other than bio weapons?
There is no question that this is biological warfare.
That said, China is not going to retaliate and try to hurt Americans.
Why not?
Because unlike America they are not a culture of psychopaths.
Lost in this whole scaremongering affair is the CDC estimates that already for this flu
season 29 million have contracted the flu and 16,000 have died.
The American Sheeple can be herded anywhere with the MSM sheepdogs being controlled by
competent shepherds.
Mr. Gruff: I am told that bioweapons are not considered, by developed world spooks and
military types, to be "useful" as weapons. They are highly unstable, difficult to deploy
and tend to have lots of blowback, as in their effects being next to impossible to predict
and just as likely to result in non-desired outcomes as desired. Yes, Escobar makes a good
point that it sure all looks very, very suspicious, especially given the gigantic Western
anti-China info op that was marched out, and that right quick. But bioweapons are said to
not be considered serious as weapo0ns systems.
"...bioweapons are said to not be considered serious as weapons systems." --casey
@31
That just makes them all the more attractive to the "Shock Doctrine" CIA
gangsters. Agents of chaos love that sort of stuff. Nothing serious, just "bloodying
their nose" a little.
A bio-weapon is a dubious hypothesis, or at the very least, it's not exactly destined to
kill massess of "enemy" people. The virus kills basically 70/80+ years old people, which
isn't exactly a problem for most countries. The heavy load on healthcare system and its
cost might be a reason, but there's many other ways of attaining such a goal. A Trump-ian
desire to limit globalization perhaps, but doubtful as well.
That said, we can only state that China did its job, but it remains to be seen if other
countries are as effective. Japan obviously isn't. I suspect many European countries won't
as well - they're repatriating people from China and cruise ships by commercial flights and
don't bother with quarantines if people have no symptoms. Then there's Iran; was it some
Iranian who came back infected, was it Chinese workers who were let in unquarantined? (if
the latter, then it's a minor failure for China not to have screened them, though the
bigger failure would probably be Iranian immigration authorities)
B's last paragraph seems spot on. Chinese emissions of greenhouse gases are going down
big time, and other countries might learn the virtues of being self-sufficient as much as
possible.
While most of the discussion here centres on supply-chains and manufacturing exports from
China, in Australia it's our service sector that will be hit. We rely on at least three
relationships with China: education (Chinese fee-paying university students), tourism
(AUD$12bn/annum from PRC) and mining exports (iron-ore and coal). The first is the sector I
work in and my university is hysterical about the 6000 PRC students stranded in China under
the travel ban. Each of those students spends a lot of money here on accom, food, etc. and
represent about AUD$100m across the year including tuition fees. As b and others have said,
it's the ramifications and delayed unexamined consequences that will bite already
over-leveraged sectors. And the MSM are very silent on this aspect of the situation,
preferring instead to whip up fear and loathing toward the PRC, which may indeed be the
intent in order to prepare populations for a longer-term 'decoupling' from the Chinese
economy.
It's not that the Outlaw US Empire wouldn't deploy a bioweapon--it did in September
2001, anthrax--but as with The Omega Man and The Walking Dead they're too
unpredictable and can easily blowback on the users. IMO, chemical weapons that are
carcinogens like Agent Orange and glyphosate (Roundup) also ought to be classed as
bioweapons since they attack our biological systems in ways different from "classical"
chemical agents.
The economic affects have yet to even be felt; and if the virus was a bioweapon, its
blowback will severely damage Western economies as they're the most developed and
dependent. Otherwise, we have another deadly strain of virus that must be controlled just
as with all the other viruses.
I wish I had the optimism of some here ! Casey @ 31 for instance.
But we live in a real distopyian world, the most powerful country is run by a psychopathic
mass murderer whose population has been brain washed! To look for logic and reason in the
actions of the insane will never work! Their insane end of story.
So here is the truth it may save a lot of speculation.
Must read. But very long. Solid evidence as to intent, motavation and opportunity
What makes you think the ones using the bioweapons (CIA) care? If a million people in
poor health, or elderly, or with no insurance die in the US these monsters will put that on
the benefit side of the ledger. Less useless eaters leaching the empire's resources (most
of the US population are considered useless eaters now that the country has been largely
de-industrialized). Blowback doesn't faze them in the slightest. Head-chopping terrorists
are rabid dogs... very difficult to control. The CIA's version of James Bond got snuffed in
Benghazi by the very same rabid dogs that he was recruiting for the "American Foreign
Legion" . Has that blowback slowed the CIA down working with these animals? No, of
course not.
Posters are trying to maintain the completely unfounded belief that these people behind
the attacks are rational and intelligent. They are not. They are psychopaths, and that is
not hyperbole. These psychopaths actually like collateral damage, even when it
happens to citizens of the empire. They're laughing about the people dying on the cruise
ships. They are joking with each other about how stupid the useless eaters are for getting
on planes with infected people. They don't see this as a problem at all, aside perhaps from
being disappointed that more people in China are not dying.
Time and again people insist upon fooling themselves into disbelieving how monstrous
these psychotic freaks are, despite the fact of their monstrosity being revealed over and
over.
Try this: Read up on Jeffrey Dahmer. Maybe you think you know a little about him but
most people don't dig too deep because it makes them uncomfortable trying to imagine how
another human being could be that messed up.
Once you get a good idea of what I am referring to by "psychopath" , then try to
imagine an entire global crime syndicate made up of these types of individuals. If you work
at it you may start to get a grasp of what the CIA really is.
Yeah, I agree with your reasoning and have referred to The Establishment of being
wannabe Neros and Caligulas, and elsewhere I've described their philosophy as Libertinism
as designed by the Marquis de Sade. Some movies depicting CIA personnel behaviors come
close to portraying what you describe, like Mr Joshua and ilk from Lethal Weapon .
Not enough people seem to be troubled by the "fictional" Jason Bourne Story. Proven yet
again: Absolute Power corrupts absolutely. It's this aspect that's always troubled me when
thinking about how to disband the CIA. The fiction's horrid enough, and we know the truth's
worse.
Different strain a cold virus causing only a fraction of hospitalizations and deaths from
pneumonia from other infections, are way overhyped by China and international health
organizations. To what end?
Mandatory vaccinations down the road which will cause many adverse effects that will be
underreported, conditioning people to allow governments worldwide to lockdown people
without protest to keep them safe, etc.
This is all a psy-ops operation for greater pharma profits and government control. China
will blame the US for using a biowarfare weapon to gain the peoples nationalist support
(fake enemies are wonderful for that purpise). Despite being "attacked" China will continue
providing America antibiotics, tech gadgets and API's used for drugs and vaccines and will
honor American intellectuals property rights and pay royalties for vaccines they produce
using patented vaccine processes. Fake wrestling man.
Anyone notice it was not until China signed the trade agreement that the virus became
newsworthy?. Gates Event 201 and his documentary on Netflix shows the this was a preplanned
psyops .
For all we know there is not even a new virus. Just a test that detects endogenous viral
proteins present in a percentage of people that get tested when sick or exposed to a sick
person. How would we even know? But lets assume it is a new virus. Just look at the numbers
outside Hubei (numbers not to be trusted), and understand many people had the virus without
symptoms and you see the mortality rate not much greater than influenza and affecting
mostly elderly or other sick people hardest.
From past conversations I've had here at MoA with Clickkid, VK and some others on the
COVID-19 virus as a bioweapon, my conclusion is that it cannot be a bioweapon.
It's too contagious and it has too many modes of transmission for it to be easily
controllable by the attackers using it to subdue an enemy without risking blowback once the
enemy is dead and gone, and the attackers start moving their own people in to mop up and
take over cities and steal equipment, factory machines and armaments where the virus may
still be lingering. A virus that kills people past the age when they've finished raising
families and their own health is in long-term decline? Not ideal - as Clickkid pointed out,
a better bioweapon is one that incapacitates people in the prime of their lives, doesn't
kill them outright but reduces their productivity, maybe also renders them sterile or
infertile.
A vaccine would be a better bioweapon than an actual disease. With the various side
effects that have been reported for it, Gardasil (to prevent cervical cancer in women)
would be ideal as a bioweapon.
my conclusion is that it cannot be a bioweapon.
Bingo!
We have a winner.
It is 96% similar to a 2014 coronavirus, of bat origin, a double stranded positive RNA
virus.
A bat virus, like SARS and MERS, the other two significant coronavirus.
Jen
China has been in lockdown. Factories closed ect. Major resources diverted to stop the
spread. It is a major economic hit to China.
Hygiene is high in China compared to other densely populated parts of Asia. China has been
hit now with a number of exotic viruses ect that have been hits to its economy. Ebola
kicked off in Africa, but other than that, other countries that eat anything and
everything, who's hygiene is often not up to the standard of China do not seem to be
experiencing these outbreaks.
As to using bio weapons, any country that would develop and use them would have also
developed a vaccine.
my comment with LINK @ 25 addressed the just-in-time supply chain, global shipping
disruptions.
Now, the CDC has announced "in the eventuality of" they are getting prepared to adopt
closures:
(Reuters) - U.S. health officials on Friday said they are preparing for the possibility
of the spread of the new coronavirus through U.S. communities that would force closures
of schools and businesses.
The United States has yet to see community spread of the virus that emerged in central
China in late December. But health authorities are preparing medical personnel for the
risk, Nancy Messonnier, an official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC) told reporters on a conference call.
In coming weeks, if the virus begins to spread through U.S. communities, health
authorities want to be ready to adopt school and business closures like those undertaken
in Asian countries to contain the disease, Messonnier said.[.]
The CDC is taking steps to ensure frontline U.S. healthcare workers have supplies they
need, she added, by working with businesses, hospitals, pharmacies and provisions
manufacturers and distributors on what they can do to get ready.[.]
The United States currently has 13 cases of people diagnosed with the virus within the
country and 21 cases among Americans repatriated on evacuation flights from Wuhan, China,
and from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan, CDC said.
Of 329 Americans evacuated from the cruise ship, 18 tested positive for the
virus. Eleven of them are at University of Nebraska Medical Center, five are in medical
facilities near Travis Air Force Base in California and two are near Lackland Air Force
Base in San Antonio, Texas.[.]
That's the downer that australia experiences after drinking to excess.
He is also the downer that as aus ambassador to UK blew the game with his formal
references to Joe Mifsud and the Papadopolus fiasco in Italy and the Englanders homeland.
Once he had committed his report and used the diplomatic service to deliver it the game had
to follow with a formal presentation to FBI. Then the FISA court evidence and so on.
He also gave $30Mil to the Clinton Foundation for their non work on AIDS in Papua New
Guinea or some scam like that.
Can someone prosecute these thieving scum? But then they are useful idiots to both the
oligarchy and to us mere observers.
It is 96% similar to a 2014 coronavirus, of bat origin, a double stranded positive RNA
virus.
A bat virus, like SARS and MERS, the other two significant coronavirus.
To be any sort of winner one would have to go a further furlong and explain some of the
anomalies being reported or refute those reports etc. To say a coronavirus of today is
closely similar to a (bat derived) coronavirus of yesterday and therefore the source
identified is direct really stretches evidence a little.
WTF do you mean %96? What is the %4 comprised of?
If I drink %96 water with %4 arsenic it is not healthy water eh?
How many bats were sold at the FISH market?
Have they been reduced/banned in their popularity following the last outbreak?
Is the coronavirus species specific?
Try some detailed refutation if you will Duncan Idaho and actually negate the
proposition that the previous coronavirus could not be fiddled to produce this
emergence.
The speed, location and size of this COVID-19 outbreak are not natural and do not fit the
online narratives targeting China.
Attacking China with bioweapons is nothing new, Japan did it with Unit 731 and US did it
during Korean War in 1950s attacking China with Yellow Fever.
These latest attacks on the sounder of pigs with Swine Flu then followed by COVID-19
carefully timed near Chinese New Year at the central of China for maximum impacts. Followed
by the US hypocrisy pretending to help then later lied that China refused the offer.
It has become too obvious the motive of a very well coordinated amount of online disinfo
as deflections with "Eating bat soup, eating wild animals, engineered virus escape from
Wuhan L-4 lab" to pin the blame China for the outbreak.
The amount of intensive of online trolls attacking China to support the anti-China
propaganda narratives above. Have seen these kinds one too many times, like White Helmet
making fake video blaming Syrian government gas attack on Syrian people, Saddam Hussein got
WMD and he ripped babies out of incubators testimony in UN, no less. Muammar Gaddafi
violated human right, et al.
Hong Kong Color revolution, Uighur Islamic Extremist, Tibet Dalai Lama bill, swine flu
attack, virus attack on the people, kidnapping Huawei CFO by Canada, .......... amid
US-China trade war. All the attacks on China intensified when China launched the Belt and
Road Initiative. Can it be more obvious?
The remaining patient contracted the disease from his daughter, who had travelled
along with seven workmates to a training course in Wuhan. The workers who attended the
course were all from the province of Vinh Phuc, where currently 73 persons are suspected of
having contracted the virus. They, and affected areas in the commune (population 10,000)
are under a twenty-day quarantine, due to end on March 3. If anyone tests positive, of
course further quarantine and treatment will follow.
Elsewhere in Vietnam, schools are closed, and will stay closed until at least the
beginning of March, and large gatherings have been suspended. Masks were in short supply
but production is now beginning to meet the demand. The government is attempting to enforce
a quarantine for fourteen days for citizens returning from travel to China; non-citizens
are not being permitted to enter VN from China. (Unfortunately, some people are attempting
to avoid these restrictions by travelling to a third country, and entering Vietnam from
there.)
In sum, there is no large outbreak of the virus in Vietnam as yet, public awareness
campaigns are in full swing, there is clear awareness of the economic impacts in all
sectors, and concentrated nursing care has led to recovery in all cases to date.
What makes you believe the ZOG can surreptitiously attack China with COVID-19 won't carry
out the same attack at home and at the enemies of the ZOG empire?
You are cheering the death of innocent Chinese people, you better think again what makes
you so special that you will be spared.
I stopped reading ZeroHedge as it's the most anti China disinfo portal. They publish
anti China propaganda from Falun Gong, EpochTime, Gatestone, NED, Propaganda outlets from
India, et al.
Also ZeroHedge banned several times for questioning their narratives. But my other
account bashing China, Iran, North Korea, ........ is still alive after more than 10
years.
As the usual suspects fret over the "stability" of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and
the Xi Jinping administration, the fact is the Beijing leadership has had to deal with an
accumulation of extremely severe issues: a swine-flu epidemic killing half the stock; the
Trump-concocted trade war; Huawei accused of racketeering and about to be prevented from
buying U.S. made chips; bird flu; coronavirus virtually shutting down half of China.
Add to it the incessant United States government Hybrid War propaganda barrage,
trespassed by acute Sinophobia; everyone from sociopathic "officials" to self-titled
councilors are either advising corporate businesses to divert global supply chains out of
China or concocting outright calls for regime change – with every possible
demonization in between.
There are no holds barred in the all-out offensive to kick the Chinese government while
it's down.
A Pentagon cipher at the Munich Security Conference once again declares China as the
greatest threat, economically and militarily, to the U.S. – and by extension the
West, forcing a wobbly EU already subordinated to NATO to be subservient to Washington on
this remixed Cold War 2.0.
The whole U.S. corporate media complex repeats to exhaustion that Beijing is "lying" and
losing control. Descending to sub-gutter, racist levels, hacks even accuse BRI itself of
being a pandemic, with China "impossible to quarantine".
All that is quite rich, to say the least, oozing from lavishly rewarded slaves of an
unscrupulous, monopolistic, extractive, destructive, depraved, lawless oligarchy which uses
debt offensively to boost their unlimited wealth and power while the lowly U.S. and global
masses use debt defensively to barely survive. As Thomas Piketty has conclusively shown,
inequality always relies on ideology.
We're deep into a vicious intel war. From the point of view of Chinese intelligence, the
current toxic cocktail simply cannot be attributed to just a random series of coincidences.
Beijing has serial motives to piece this extraordinary chain of events as part of a
coordinated Hybrid War, Full Spectrum Dominance attack on China.
Enter the Dragon Killer working hypothesis: a bio-weapon attack capable of causing
immense economic damage but protected by plausible deniability. The only possible move by
the "indispensable nation" on the New Great Game chessboard, considering that the U.S.
cannot win a conventional war on China, and cannot win a nuclear war on China.
A biological warfare weapon?
On the surface, coronavirus is a dream bio-weapon for those fixated on wreaking havoc
across China and praying for regime change.
Yet it's complicated. This report is a decent effort trying to track the origins of
coronavirus. Now compare it with the insights by Dr. Francis Boyle, international law
professor at the University of Illinois and author, among others, of Biowarfare and
Terrorism. He's the man who drafted the U.S. Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989
signed into law by George H. W. Bush.
Dr. Boyle is convinced coronavirus is an
"offensive biological warfare weapon" that leaped out of the Wuhan BSL-4 laboratory,
although he's "not saying it was done deliberately."
Dr. Boyle adds, "all these BSL-4 labs by United States, Europe, Russia, China, Israel
are all there to research, develop, test biological warfare agents. There's really no
legitimate scientific reason to have BSL-4 labs." His own research led to a whopping $100
billion, by 2015, spent by the United States government on bio-warfare research: "We have
well over 13,000 alleged life science scientists testing biological weapons here in the
United States. Actually this goes back and it even precedes 9/11."
Dr. Boyle directly accuses "the Chinese government under Xi and his comrades" of a cover
up "from the get-go. The first reported case was December 1, so they'd been sitting on this
until they couldn't anymore. And everything they're telling you is a lie. It's
propaganda."
The World Health Organization (WHO), for Dr. Boyle, is also on it: "They've approved
many of these BSL-4 labs ( ) Can't trust anything the WHO says because they're all bought
and paid for by Big Pharma and they work in cahoots with the CDC, which is the United
States government, they work in cahoots with Fort Detrick." Fort Detrick, now a
cutting-edge bio-warfare lab, previously was a notorious CIA den of mind control
"experiments".
Relying on decades of research in bio-warfare, the U.S. Deep State is totally familiar
with all bio-weapon overtones. From Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki to Korea, Vietnam and
Fallujah, the historical record shows the United States government does not blink when it
comes to unleashing weapons of mass destruction on innocent civilians.
For its part, the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) has spent
a fortune researching bats, coronaviruses and gene-editing bio-weapons. Now, conveniently
– as if this was a form of divine intervention – DARPA's "strategic allies"
have been chosen to develop a genetic vaccine.
The 1996 neocon Bible, the Project for a New American Century (PNAC), unambiguously
stated, "advanced forms of biological warfare that can "target" specific genotypes may
transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool."
There's no question coronavirus, so far, has been a Heaven-sent politically useful tool,
reaching, with minimum investment, the desired targets of maximized U.S. global power
– even if fleetingly, enhanced by a non-stop propaganda offensive – and China
relatively isolated with its economy semi paralyzed.
Yet perspective is in order. The CDC estimated that up to 42.9 million people got sick
during the 2018-2019 flu season in the U.S. No less than 647,000 people were hospitalized.
And 61,200 died.
This report details the Chinese "people's war" against coronavirus.
It's up to Chinese virologists to decode its arguably synthetic origin. How China
reacts, depending on the findings, will have earth-shattering consequences –
literally.
Setting the stage for the Raging Twenties
After managing to reroute trade supply chains across Eurasia to its own advantage and
hollow out the Heartland, American – and subordinated Western – elites are now
staring into a void. And the void is staring back. A "West" ruled by the U.S. is now faced
with irrelevance. BRI is in the process of reversing at least two centuries of Western
dominance.
There's no way the West and especially the "system leader" U.S. will allow it. It all
started with dirty ops stirring trouble across the periphery of Eurasia – from
Ukraine to Syria to Myanmar.
Now it's when the going really gets tough. The targeted assassination of Maj. Gen.
Soleimani plus coronavirus – the Wuhan flu – have really set up the stage for
the Raging Twenties. The designation of choice should actually be WARS – Wuhan Acute
Respiratory Syndrome. That would instantly give the game away as a War against Humanity
– irrespective of where it came from.
Theres been massive media and of course covert pressure to make china submit to US
diktat.. Hongkong riots is one of a mess , indoctrinationg HK young people into rabid
terrorist who rejoice on chinese coronavirus debacle.
now this is funny , these HKers are also chinese descent no matter what their delusional
mind feeds them.. Corona virus practically next door and without chinese effort to contain
it , HK will get wiped out.. yet they are still acting like useful idiots ..
the world knew about these morons and their names , i doubt they are welcome to other
countries even australia banned them entry
Global
Times OP/ED tangentially about virus and more about China/Outlaw US Empire
deteriorating relation. Some meat:
"No matter how you look at it, there will be no winner in this hypothetical cold war,
and the US will not be able to continue its march to greatness unscathed. In a word, the
time has changed, and Sino-US relations are very different from the US-Soviet relations 70
years ago.
"First of all, although the development paths of the two countries are different, China
holds the correct course. For more than 40 years, China has always adhered to the path of
reform and opening up, firmly integrated into and safeguarded the current international
system, and committed itself to a fair and reasonable reform direction. In contrast, the
foreign policy of the present US administration is not only disorderly, but also
increasingly assertive. The US presents itself to the world as a destroyer and subversive
of the international order, which makes it mired in a moral deficit."
A "moral deficit" indeed! In that connection, it ought to be noted that the Boy Scouts
of America filed for bankruptcy because of the numerous lawsuits targeting its pedophile
scoutmasters for which it's liable.
A very deep "recession" aka depression was already expected by those paying attention. How
do the financial elites hide blame for it? Launch a bio-weapon in a nation that is the
world's factory, grinding the world economy to a crawl, and blame the depression on that.
The CIA exists primarily to advance the interests of Wall Street. The timing of this is
just too coincidental.
As I said, I'm not sure enormous viral outbreaks are blacks swans; I think a little research
would show plenty of Cassandras. That said, it certainly looks like skimping on public health
was a very bad bet (besides the suffering and death, a recession in China, or even a global
recession, permanent reconfiguration of the supply chain, loss of soft power by China,
etc.).
Finally, our globalizing, neoliberal elites. This is a whole post, and probably a whole
book. Simplifying absurdly, our neoliberal elites destroyed manufacturing in this country and
moved it to China. (And yes, a great swath of the American working class in flyover was
destroyed, but there were downsides, too!) Save for the profits they accrued, most of their
working assumptions for this policy proved false. China, for example, did not become a liberal
democracy; as it turns out, liberal democracy does not automagically happen because there are
markets, or capitalism. Nor did China become a happy member of "the rules-based international
order." Rather -- and who could blame them -- they decided to write their own rules. Finally, a
highly optimized supply chain system so complex as to be unmanageable developed to ship
consumer goods from China to the world, and to ship raw materials from the world into China. As
we have seen in the last few weeks, the supply chain is extremely fragile, and its failure may
mean a loss of truly essential commodities to the United States, like pharmaceuticals (although
the wealthy will be able to get what they need, so no problem there). And what bad bet did our
globalizing, neoliberal elites make? The same as the bureaucrats running Wuhan: That public
health doesn't matter. (An absurdly bad bet, after H1N1, SARS, and swine fever in China, an
animal epidemic running concurrently with the human.)
Clearly, a less fragile, more robust system of global public health is needed; one that can
take precautionary measures, instead of just reacting to outbreaks as they occur. How to get to
that point, however, is little beyond me. We might start from the premise that human life is
the most important thing. That may be difficult for our elites to accept. But they might be
making a bad bet if they don't.
Thinking back to when my seventh past life was young, I tried to imagine how an
elite of that age differs from the elites of today. The main thing that I, with my limited
cognition abilities, could come up with was: The sources of wealth for the elites.
Today, wealth itself has been financialized. Olde guarde elites could retreat to their rustic
abodes, hence the English colloquialism for being sent home from college, rustication. There,
said elites could weather the storm in relative safety. Distance itself from centres of
population, and hence, centres of contagion, was a buffer.
Today, the wealthy are constantly mingling with the hoi-polloi, out of sheer random contacts
related to the heightened mobility of all classes. As the spread of the latest contagions
shows, air travel has effectively eliminated the buffering function of geographical distance.
The new elites do not rely on manses and demesnes for power or sustenance. They are basically
reliant on the exact same supply chains that the "rest of us" are. Paradoxically, "free
trade" is a "great leveler."
We live in interesting times.
its almost as if they know their actions will destroy the world and they need to be
ready to once again leave someone(s) else with the bill of their recklessness.
"... If you want proof that private equity is predatory, you need go not further than its concerted efforts to extend and intensify the devastating practice of surprise billing. ..."
"... Physicians' groups, it turns out, can opt out of a contract with insurers even if the hospital has such a contract. The doctors are then free to charge patients, who desperately need care, however much they want. ..."
"... This has made physicians' practices in specialties such as emergency care, neonatal intensive care and anesthesiology attractive takeover targets for private equity firms . ..."
"... Emergency rooms, neonatal intensive care units and anesthesiologists' practices do not operate like an ordinary marketplace. Physicians' practices in these specialties do not need to worry that they will lose patients because their prices are too high. ..."
"... It's not only patients that are victimized by unscrupulous physicians' groups. These doctors' groups are able to coerce health insurance companies into agreeing to pay them very high fees in order to have them in their networks. ..."
If you want proof that
private equity is predatory, you need go not further than its concerted efforts to extend and
intensify the devastating practice of surprise billing.
Bad enough that patients develop
afflictions or have accidents that land them in the hospital. Recovering physically is hard
enough. But to then have the stress and financial damage of large and unexpected bills, which
are exercises in rent extraction, is the sort of thing that creates Madame DeFarges.
Private equity experts Eileen Appelbaum and Rosemary Batt did the sleuthing to document how
private equity has greatly extended and profited from this abuse. What most people do not
realize is the degree to which hospitals have outsourced what most people would assume were
core functions provided by doctors on the hospital's payroll, such as emergency room doctors.
With many large nominally not-for-profit hospital groups run by MBAs out to justify higher pay
packages for themselves, many practice areas are in fact outsourced. Private equity has
hoovered up these groups. They, and not the hospital, provide the personnel for a particular
case, and they make sure to get some out of network practitioners on the team to pad the
bills.
One metric: a Stanford study determined that the odds of getting a surprise bill had
increased from 32% in 2010 to 43% in 2016, and the average amount had risen over that time
period from $220 to $628. A new study in Health Affairs found that this out of network billing
raises health care costs by $40 billion per year .
Physicians' groups, it turns out, can opt out of a contract with insurers even if the
hospital has such a contract. The doctors are then free to charge patients, who desperately
need care, however much they want.
This has made physicians' practices in specialties such as emergency care, neonatal
intensive care and anesthesiology attractive takeover targets for private equity firms
.
Emergency rooms, neonatal intensive care units and anesthesiologists' practices do not
operate like an ordinary marketplace. Physicians' practices in these specialties do not need
to worry that they will lose patients because their prices are too high.
Patients can go to a hospital in their network, but if they have an emergency, have a baby
in the neonatal intensive care unit or have surgery scheduled with an in-network surgeon,
they are stuck with the out-of-network doctors the hospital has outsourced these services to
.
It's not only patients that are victimized by unscrupulous physicians' groups. These
doctors' groups are able to coerce health insurance companies into agreeing to pay them very
high fees in order to have them in their networks.
They do this by threatening to charge high out-of-network bills to the insurers' covered
patients if they don't go along with these demands. High payments to these unethical doctors
raise hospitals' costs and everyone's insurance premiums.
Appelbaum cited Yale economists who'd examined what happened when hospitals outsourced their
emergency room staffing to the two biggest players, EmCare, which has been traded among several
private equity firms and is now owned by KKR and TeamHealth, held by Blackstone:
.after EmCare took over the management of emergency services at hospitals with previously
low out-of-network rates, they raised out-of-network rates by over 81 percentage points. In
addition, the firm raised its charges by 96 percent relative to the charges billed by the
physician groups they succeeded.
The study also described how TeamHealth extorted insurers by threatening them with high
out-of-network charges for "must have" services:
in most instances, several months after going out-of-network, TeamHealth physicians
rejoined the network and received in-network payment rates that were 68 percent higher than
previous in-network rates.
California and the Federal government tried to pass legislation to curb surprise billing. As
we noted, the California bill was yanked suddenly and no one felt compelled to offer an
explanation. The bi-partisan Federal effort also failed.
Early in the summer of 2019, Congress appeared poised to protect consumers from surprise
medical bills and to hold insured patients financially harmless in situations where they were
unable to choose their doctor .
Two solutions, both of which take surprise charges to patients out of the equation, have
been put forward. Employers, patient advocates, and insurance companies favor paying
out-of-network doctors a rate "benchmarked" to rates negotiated with in-network doctors to
hold down health costs. Not surprisingly, this solution is opposed by large physician
staffing companies and specialist physician practices that want to continue to charge prices
higher than the in-network fees. These doctors' practices, some backed by private equity
firms, have been lobbying intensively for a second option that would allow doctors
dissatisfied with a negotiated rate to seek a higher fee via an arbitration process that they
believe will ensure higher physician pay and higher company revenues and profits.
The campaign by Physicians for Fair Coverage, a private equity-backed group lobbying on
behalf of large physician staffing firms, launched a $1.2 million national ad campaign in
July to push for this second approach.8 The lobbying campaign bore fruit. In July, [sponsors
of the House bill] Pallone and Walden accepted an amendment to allow arbitration, but only in
special cases, and it required the arbitrator to use negotiated rates instead of provider
charges when deciding on disputes over payment.9 But the private equity-owned physician
staffing companies were not satisfied. In late July, a mysterious group called Doctor Patient
Unity launched a $28 million ad and lobbying campaign (now up to nearly $54 million) aimed at
keeping any legislation to protect patients from surprise medical bills from passing. In
mid-September, a representative for Doctor Patient Unity finally revealed what many observers
already suspected -- that PE-owned doctor staffing firms Envision Healthcare and TeamHealth
were behind the campaign
Agreement on a joint House and Senate bipartisan bill by Senators Alexander and Murray and
Congressmen Pallone and Walden nearly made it into the omnibus continuing resolution that
passed in December 2019. It was stymied when Massachusetts Congressman Richard Neal, Chair of
the House Ways and Means Committee, offered a last-minute alternative. The Neal bill protects
consumers from surprise medical bills but requires disputes between providers and insurance
companies to be resolved through arbitration. This, of course, is what the PE-owned staffing
firms and the doctors' practices they own lobbied for. Lack of support from the Democratic
leadership in the Senate and the House delayed passage of the legislation. In his September
2019 fundraising report, Neal reported receipt of $29,000 from Blackstone, owner of
TeamHealth.
The entire article is
very much worth reading , since it offers more detail on how the private equity firms
tightened their grip on these chokepoints. And the threat of legal curbs has had an impact. As
the piece also explains, the value of the debt on Envision, the parent of EmCare, and
TeamHealth both fell into junk terrain and rebounded a bit when the bills were sidelined for
2019, but remains distressed:
Appelbaum and Batt are pessimistic that anything will get done in 2020:
In the current legislative session, Congress is again working to pass legislation to
protect patients from surprise medical bills. But the disagreements in Congress remain
unresolved Chances of a compromise bill emerging in this session of Congress do not look good
as of this writing (mid-February 2020), and relief for insured patients from unexpected
medical bills does not appear to be on the horizon.
However, bond investors clearly think there's still a risk of legislation with some teeth,
although the earliest possibility is 2021. Keep your fingers crossed.
Where I live the emergency room doctors are contracted out to a private group. This
has been the practice for over a decade. Recently the local hospital got rid of their
dialysis services by selling it to a private company. When a person is sick they don't think
about asking if the provider is in their network. They simply want treatment to help
recover.Another problem is in many areas there isn't a choice. Expensive services can have
only one or no providers. That means you have to go out of you area and probably your
network. I'm on medicare and chose to be on traditional medicare. You aren't locked into a
small network of providers. My supplemental is through my former employer. Unfortunately it's
network plan. Occasionally I have services not paid because they are out of network, even
though medicare covers 80%. The deductible for out of network is so high that I end up with
paying the 20%. I believe there is only one reason for network heart care. It's to increase
profits and has little to do with reducing costs.
I was thinking of Al Capone and his almost untouchable Chicago 'enterprise'. He was
untouchable in Chicago because his racket paid off the judges, prosecutors, aldermen, and
politicians. It took the feds stepping in to shut Capone down.
How many more people will go bankrupt, or avoid going to the doctor or hospital for
fear of bankruptcy because of this PE surprise billing racket? Several state leges are
passing or trying to pass legislation to block surprise billing.
I hope that you've been negotiating your out of network billings! A third or half
off may not be unreasonable. Heck, the hospital only collects about 25% of its total
billings!
This is one reason we need traditional M4A. Traditional Medicare has payment limits
that the provider has to accept if they bill Medicare. (Medicare fraud is a problem, but it
is tracked and prosecuted.)
Maybe I'm missing something, but offhand I don't see how this can even be a thing
under a single-payer health-care system. If someone knows better otherwise, please enlighten
me.
If I've got that much right, could this be another part of the motivation against
M4A?
Of course providers are all worried that compensations will be too meager and
oppressive. For instance if the docs' income expectations go unmet, then they will certainly
buck!
But the "providers," as in the MDs, are not the beneficiaries, or at least not much.
It's the companies that own the practices .which are owned by PE funds.
This reminds me of the TV ad running lately featuring a nice young couple opening
their cable bill and declaring "Its a ransom note!" as if its the height of comedy that we
are living in a kleptocracy where everyone is constantly subject to "your money or your life"
banditry we pretend were left behind in central park muggings of the 1970s.
I have recently had multiple occasions that I needed to write on patient
responsibility forms that out of network and balance billing is refused, followed with
letters citing applicable state laws and CMS contracts barring conduct in my state. It's
insane.
Still I have stacks of collection notices I must beat back and win every time. They only need
to win once to destroy someone. Have we no prisons?
The rapine and dispossession of late-stage American crapitalism (can we finally get
to End Stage?) always exceeds our worst expectations.
Crime-infested swamp of a country.
Dare we hope a movement can coalesce and endure after a decent man in his waning
years is thrust into an historical opportunity to move this train wreck from
disaster?
He's the community organizer Obama never was and the new dealer FDR never quite
was.
In the flatness of our current political terrain, Bernie's grandfatherly menscheism
makes him a moral colossus next to the sniveling careerists and the nefarious old
crassus.
1776, 1860, 1932, 1968. What will we make of this year?
Can you put the rebuttal into your own easily reproducible form? Either a neat page
to staple thoroughly to the bills (copied/printed in needed quantities) or a big rubber stamp
with blanks to fill in if applicable?
Yes, if you can provide it, I would make it a post. Your version with your state's
language and how to find similar language in other states. This is VERY important.
Note I have heard one reader say that their doctors said they wouldn't schedule the
surgery if she made an issue out of out of network MDs, that she needed to go elsewhere. So
those doctors were completely on board with this practice.
Doesn't mean that can't get a judgment against you! Then you spend the rest of your
life trying to avoid having people send money via Paypal or other services direct to your
bank account since they can take it. Or winning the lottery or buying a new car the list is
endless.
As in "Privatize Sovereignty, Socialize Property" by David Cieplay, Blackstone and
its ilk have this very business model. In this case they are buying up emergency room
doctors' practices – with the promise they will make more money – and passing the
cost on to insurance companies (poetic justice) and the state and federal gov. Because we
have no laws against this sort of corporate privateering (heaven forbid congress should
suddenly remember how and why to legislate), all the costs of health care are socialized and
because the PE funds are untouchable they have effectively privatized sovereignty. When we
all realize their useful function in this scam is one big nothing burger, congress will have
to act. It's just another testament to how venal, immoral, lazy and rotten congress is. I can
smell it from here.
Besides PE, it also makes sense that the real estate sector in general would be
opposed to anything that reduces financial burden (particularly anything that would lessen
medical debt) on middle- and lower-middle-income households, because foreclosures and
desperation fire sales would then dry up.
The law protects consumers from surprise medical bills when:
An enrollee goes to an in-network facility such as a hospital, lab or imaging center, but
services are provided by an out-of-network health provider.
An enrollee receives emergency services from a doctor or hospital that is not
contracted with the patient's health plan or medical group.
I've been a relatively healthy individual and so rarely use my insurance. I used it
for the first time in 20 years for a full yearly physical (just because it was "that time",
not for any health problems). The annual full checkup is, supposedly, fully covered, and I
chose a local clinic in my network.
The various clinics involved ended up billing me directly, so far, for over
$3500.00, and that was before the colonoscopy bill which still hasn't arrived. I checked my
Insurance Portal and, sure enough, the supposed covered charges were listed as
"Denied".
So, considering all these costs were supposed to be covered, I took a full day off
work (6 solid hours on various phone calls) to get it straightened out. While going through
all these bills and working through each charge I discovered 1 bill for a clinic appt (a
subsidiary of CVS) that never happened and 1 very high bill for standard blood tests (Quest)
that never happened due to a screwup initiated by the CVS-owned clinic. We'll see what
happens.
But while talking with one of the Insurance Co. reps she told me a classic surprise
billing horror story that happened to her. She gets occasional nosebleeds and one day got a
serious one while on the highway before her exit. A CHP officer pulled up behind her after
she pulled over to take care of the situation and refused to let her continue on without
going to the nearest Emergency Room, so she went.
Her visit lasted 1/2 hour. She was handed a bucket of clean water and a towel. After
cleaning up, she waited around for awhile, gave up waiting, washed the towel out, cleaned the
bucket out and left. She went on to tell me that 30 days later she recieved a bill from the
Emergency Services group at the hospital for $45,000.00. For a towel and a bucket of
water.
It took her two days of unpaid time off to get it straightened out and the bill
removed.
She then told me she's voting for Sanders, too.
So I've learned three lessons from this; 1) even with insurance things go wrong far
too often when it comes to billing issues, and 2) Surprise Billing is far more common than I
was led to believe, and 3) Health Insurance/care in this country is riddled with fraud and
outright criminality.
Hate to tell you, but with a colonoscopy, the exam is covered by Obamacare, but any
snipping of polyps is not, and that can easily run to $1000.
The US Is the only advanced economy where colonoscopies are recommended for everyone
over 50. In other countries, they are recommended only for people in high risk
groups.
If you get an annual ( and it needs to be annual ) fecal occult blood test
(easy and cheap, MD puts gloved finger in you, wipes test panel, and tells you right there),
the results in terms of detection are on par with colonoscopies.
We set up a 'brain trust' in the Cafe in order to write a combined sitrep for The Saker Blog
about the Coronavirus. The new name in the taxonomy is COVID-19 but let's stick to Novel
Coronavirus for now. It is of course too early to come to any conclusions, but we can start
isolating the discernible high level trends and perhaps get an early glimpse as to what effect
the outbreak may have geopolitically and economically, although it is very early days.
We will not attempt to look at the technical picture here – the numbers of recoveries,
the death rates and the infection rates, rates of transmission, life of virus on surfaces and
so on because the technical picture is not yet clear and all data is in a state of flux with
opposing and inconsistent reports from all sides. One cannot expect otherwise as the world is
still shooting at a rapidly moving target in terms of statistical ground and epidemiological
analysis.
In addition, we have professional organizations like the WHO and the CDC not really in
lockstep and giving different pronouncements on a professional level. It is too early to draw
conclusions.
What people are saying:
Let us look for a moment as to what 'people are saying'.
(If you want to end up deeply into conspiracies, I would suggest you go to subReddits
/r/Coronavirus and
/r/China_Flu )
What 'people are saying' runs the gamut from messages received in meditation, prayer, even
channeling, and this information is being put out there as valid for everyone else in the face
of no definitive information you can hang your hat on.
Every talking head on youtube has suddenly turned into an expert, both on China and on
the Novel Coronavirus. Every uninformed blockhead has now turned into a specialist. Every
Twitter feed out there now considers itself an insta-influencer.
Most of the western alternative news medias have suddenly decided to follow their
governmental lead on China, and the message is overwhelmingly that Brutal China is indeed
very Brutal and very Bad.
China is attacking her own people to reduce population
Lab Accidents happen. (this is of course a pragmatic view, but usually Level 4
laboratories are situated very far away from the center of busy cities).
Wuhan was on the point of massive riots, Hong Kong Style against their government
The Chinese government is lying and not reporting correctly. The death rate is much
higher.
The Chinese Defense Forces are riddled with virus infected soldiers, and they are being
contained somewhere else. There is no information on this excepting wild speculation.
Every non-flattering video from China is being passed along salaciously; usually grainy
and one cannot really figure out where it is from – no markings, road signs, store
names or anything where anything can be identified. The scuttlebut is that these mostly
security camera videos and actively distributed by Falun Gong. Your guess on this is as good
as mine.
As you can see from this list, and it is by no means exhaustive, all over the show, and
there are literally 10's more of these
What the timing indicates
The timing is suspicious no matter how you look at it.
Manufacturing usually shuts down or goes slow over Chinese New Year / Spring Festival
which can last as much as 15 days. So, economically, this was a good time for a virus (if
China 'did it').
On the other hand, this holiday gives rise to the greatest migration of people on our
planet which also makes it an ideal time to infect a population (if someone outside of
China 'did it').
The timing so close to the signing of the of the US/China Phase I Trade Agreement, which
the Chinese referred to as only a 'cease fire' in the trade war, and the US referred to as
a great breakthrough, is suspicious. The Chinese were indicating that they are very
hesitant to even go to a phase II negotiation. And of course, there is a black part of the
actual agreement that we do not know about.
The Main Tropes
1. The main trope out there is that this is a bioengineered bioweapon . But right at
that point opinions diverge so widely that one can only ask questions, and not conclude
anything.
2. The second trope is that people are being arrested widely. We've seen reports of
arrests in Canada and in the US, and out of Harvard.
Here is but one .
3. The third trope is that China is "The Sick Man", and we hate them for dumping this
virus on the rest of us. Let me just say that the level of invective against China is not
only unprecedented, it is also suspicious. Rebranding of the Coronoa Virus to the Chinese
Virus is proceeding apace, even though it has a formal name now – COVID-19. In my
life I have never seen such an overt manipulation of the common headspace such as this,
since 'weapons of mass destruction'.
4. The fourth trope is that the US, on a public and governmental basis has decided to
vilify China , correctly or incorrectly. Note Mr
Pompeo. Is he only taking an opportunity that is presented to him, or does he know
more than what we think?
5. The fifth trope is that the civilizational fear against China is suddenly out in
the open for everyone to see. It is almost a morphic resonance of fear expressed against
China and that China is the culprit. However, we don't really know who the culprit is
actually. We don't even know if there is a culprit.
Is China the culprit, or is China the victim, or is this a virus that spread from
animal to human or has it escaped from some or other lab by accident (or on purpose)? We
do not know any of this and this trope just creates more FUD (fear, uncertainty and
doubt).
6. The sixth trope is that China is wrong no matter what she does . Quarantine and
even forced quarantine is expressed by the blockheads of Brutal China Cracking Down on
Their People, without thinking what is actually necessary to do for this kind of
outbreak, no matter where it comes from. One after the other video supposedly from China
showing the so-called Brutal Chinese government is distributed with relish, with nary a
thought that you and I are actually being protected by these heavy handed tactics. The
snoflakes are out in force talking about human rights, yet, by the looks of things, China
is going all out protecting the many.
Because there is a strange consistency in what the State (used generally) says, and
what the alternative media says, this is more worrying than anything else. On the one
hand nobody can believe the State, and on the other hand alternative media is reproducing
and disseminating the message of the State.
7. The seventh trope is that the few voices, even here on The Saker Blog, that try to
look at this realistically are drowned out in the general societal willingness to believe
the worst . Viva free speech!?!
The formal state, and the western alternative media are generally in lockstep on this
issue.
China is now attempting to go back to work. We do not know how successful this is, but
some are trying to measure the actual air pollution to try and figure out if China has gone
back to work, or not. Economically China has also given guidance to business, saying that
this event is a force majeure, known colloquially in contractual terms as 'an act of God',
and therefore they can renegotiate contracts, delivery dates and completion.
Let us
look at what is clear.
China is fighting for its life . The death-toll or even containment is not truly
visible in any numbers as yet. This will have tremendous impact on supply lines and not
only on China's economy, but all parts of the international supply chain, upstream and
downstream. China is acting on expressed unhappiness of their people. They are firing
those who do not perform, who put red-tape in the path of directly fighting this virus.
It may look brutal to lock people into their homes, but how many do they save by this
action? Where do these get food? It is in the Chinese media that food gets delivered.
This is something that the western youtube pundits (and their a-hole brothers) forget to
report, although this is open and publicized in the Chinese media.
This is a catastrophe . It is not a flu, it is not a common cold, it is not something
that 5G brought onto China, it is not God punishing the Godless red commies. Whatever it
is, it is a catastrophe with world-wide consequences. We do not know enough to come to
any meaningful conclusions except to say that considering the timeline, we are right to
be suspicious and we may be right to prepare with the basic masks, gloves and limited
public exposure, i.e., not visiting large gatherings, for a period of time.
If this virus continues, it will have societal impact that may be severe – we
won't shake hands, we won't hug babies, social interaction will be vastly compromised,
and a few more common contact methods like music concerts or sporting activies for humans
will be left by the wayside.
If it continues much beyond the current level, the extensive economic fallout cannot
be estimated. You and I and no analyst in the world can truly get their arms around the
economic fallout and the breakdown of worldwide supply chains. Who knows, we may be out
of a specific little part for a normal service of a vehicle, we may be out of medicines
(the idea of the many people that are taking anti-depressants and such types of medicines
having to go cold-turkey is quite scary, and there may be a severe shortage of simple
medical equipment, like masks and gloves that are even now getting hard to source –
just try buying masks on Amazon).
In the current analysis and according to what we have available, we do not yet know
enough to be meaningful . Much more than that is pure speculation and gives rise to other
agendas being seeded into the public narrative.
What is clear, is that fear, uncertainty, and doubt is rife and people are terrified
...
Mitchell Tsai
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Mitchell Tsai
,
Virus researcher at Harvard Medical School in 1980s
Updated Feb 18, 2020
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COVID-19 is
very infectious (Each person infects 1.4–6.77 others), but
rarely fatal (0.6–2.5%).
19% of China
cases in severe/critical condition (16%) or dead (2.6%)
5% of non-China cases in severe/critical condition (4.0%) or
dead (0.6%)
Maybe
most infected people show no symptoms (possibly 10–70%).
Non-China: 4% detected while showing no symptoms (16/447).
Cruiseship: 70% detected show no symptoms.
Kill more
men (64%) than women (36%), and people with high blood
pressure, diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and
cerebrovascular disease.
People under
50 have little danger of dying (<1%).
Chil...
COVID-19
is very infectious (Each person infects 1.4–6.77 others),
but rarely fatal (0.6–2.5%).
19% of
China cases in severe/critical condition (16%) or dead
(2.6%)
5% of non-China cases in severe/critical condition (4.0%) or
dead (0.6%)
Maybe
most infected people show no symptoms (possibly 10–70%).
Non-China: 4% detected while showing no symptoms
(16/447).
Cruiseship: 70% detected show no symptoms.
Kill more
men (64%) than women (36%), and people with high blood
pressure, diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and
cerebrovascular disease.
People
under 50 have little danger of dying (<1%).
Children may have light/no symptoms (as with SARS & MERS).
Case-Fatality Rates (CFR) China 2/11/20:
Age
80+ 14.8%
70-79 8.0%
60-69 3.6%
50-59 1.3%
Effects
of COVID-19 are similar to OC43 (one of four other mild
coronaviruses probably responsible for 1/4 of all "common
colds", 15% severe, 0.2% death).
Japan has completed tests for all passengers and crew aboard the ship as of Monday, but the
results for the last batch of tests aren't expected until Wednesday, the day that the
quarantine is slated to end. So far, results are back for 2,404 passengers and crew, out of the
3,711 who were on board the ship when the quarantine began on Feb. 5.
Since we haven't reported a full breakdown of cases in a while, here's a complete list and
breakdown of infections by country and territory, courtesy of the
AP :
Mainland China: 1,868 deaths among 72,436 cases, chiefly in Hubei
Hong Kong: 58 cases, 1 death
Macao: 10
Japan: 607 cases, including 542 from a cruise ship docked in Yokohama, 1 death
Singapore: 77 cases
Thailand: 35
South Korea: 31
Malaysia: 22
Taiwan: 22 cases, 1 death
Vietnam: 16 cases
Germany: 16
United States: 15 cases; separately, 1 US citizen died in China
Australia: 14 cases
France: 12 cases, 1 death
United Kingdom: 9 cases
United Arab Emirates: 9
Canada: 8
Philippines: 3 cases, 1 death
India: 3 cases
Italy: 3
Russia: 2
Spain: 2
Belgium: 1
Nepal: 1
Sri Lanka: 1
Sweden: 1
Cambodia: 1
Finland: 1
Egypt: 1
In a recent study, China's CCDC found that the virus's fatality rate - 14.8% - is for people
aged 80 or older with co-occurring medical conditions. Young and healthy people, meanwhile,
typically experience much more mild symptoms, according to the BBC . Along those same lines, the
WHO confirmed on Tuesday that the virus manifests as only a minor infection in four out of five
people who contract it, according to
the Guardian.
Healthcare I had wondered why the Senate
(Schumer) had backed off on legislation controlling surprise billing. It turns out there is a
House bill also and I am sure they are going back and forth on this. Recently, two bills have
emerged in the House and one from the Senate. Medscape , "House Committees Advance
Bills to Address Surprise Billing."
Of course if Congress's butt was on the line, a solution would have been found quickly and
enacted in 2020. At the end, see which one I would back.
The House Ways and Means Committee bill passed by a voice vote bipartisan bill. It seeks to
establish more use of third-party negotiators ( arbitration) for settling certain disputes
about payment for out-of-network care. This bill has the support of the American Hospital
Association and the American College of Emergency Physicians. The American Medical Association
also praised the committee's reliance on mediation for disputes on bills.
The House Education and Labor Committee advanced a hybrid proposal seeking to use
established prices in local markets to resolve many disputes about out-of-network bills. Key to
this bill is the use of arbitration above a certain cost. Bills greater than $750 or in the
case of air ambulance services $25,000; clinicians and insurers could turn to arbitration for
an independent dispute resolution. House Education and Labor passed this bill in a 32-13 mixed
vote with some Republicans and Democrats opposing and in favor.
The latest Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee of legislative
proposals also addresses surprise medical billing. The HELP bill called for mandating that
insurers reimburse out-of-network costs on the basis of their own median rates for in-network
providers.
The Education and Labor Committee bill is estimated to save $24 billion, the Senate HELPS
bill is estimated to save $25 billion, and the Ways and Means' bill would save almost $18
billion all over 10 years. It is suggested the greater use of arbitration in the Ways and
Means' bill will result in less savings.
Read on about the private equity involved and providers.
Outside Opponents of Legislation
The
American Hospital Association : "Setting a rate in statute gives insurers few incentives to
develop robust networks with hospitals and physicians, and paying for emergency care at the
median in-network rate would surely underpay for these services and create an incentive for
insurers to avoid paying fair reimbursement for these services. This approach is an obvious
windfall for the insurance industry without any assurance that health plans will pass these
savings on to consumers through lower premiums."
Other physician organizations have joined the fight to make balance billing appropriate; the
American College of Emergency Physicians, Envision Healthcare, US Acute Care Solutions and US
Anesthesia Partners -- gave roughly $1.1 million in 2019 to members of Congress, according to a
Kaiser Health News analysis of Federal Election Commission records.
Doctor Patient Unity
: "We support a federal solution to surprise medical bills that makes insurance companies pay
their fair share and supports patients' right to quality medical care."
"We oppose insurance-industry-backed proposals for government rate setting that will lead to
doctor shortages, hospital closures and loss of access to medical care, particularly in rural
and underserved communities."
Early on in 2019, Doctor Patient Unity spent more than $28 million on ads opposing
legislation without disclosing its staff or its funders. It was later revealed its
largest financial backers are two private equity backed firms Team Health and Envision
Healthcare. Together they own physician practices and staff emergency rooms around the country
according to spokesperson Greg Blair. Blackstone Group owns Team Health and KKR owns Envision
Healthcare
As is typical of political ads being run to influence people, they do not tell the whole
story and omit references to surprise bills. Instead, they warn of "government rate setting"
harming patient care and doctor/patient relationships.
The Direct Providers
ER doctors, anesthesiologists, radiologists and other specialists who typically charge
out-of-network prices are among the highest-compensated practitioners. I have found this to be
true during my hospital visits. Doctors, 3rd party contracting companies, and hospitals
complain Healthcare Insurance Companies have the upper hand due to size and can pay the
increased costs of out-of-network pricing.
The argument by doctors, the 3rd party contracting companies, and hospitals has been made
the healthcare insurance companies control the market and are able to secure better pricing
from providers which is not passed along to the insured. In markets where both
providers and insurers are highly concentrated, insurers have bargaining power to reduce
prices for hospital admissions and visits to certain physician specialists. The Market
Concentration chart for insurers and providers reveals the concentration (concentration chart)
for providers is greater than it is for insurers overall. Furthermore and if we are talking
about ACA policies, additional moneys gained must be used for treatment or the excess beyond 15
and 20% overhead and profit is refundable. It can be said also, when the total cost goes up,
the portion (15 or 20%) of the total price increases in real dollars.
ER doctors, anesthesiologists, radiologists and other specialists who typically charge
out-of-network prices are among the highest-compensated practitioners. I have found this to be
true during my hospital visits. If the insurance company can not convince them to take a lesser
rate, you are stuck will the bill. I have been tempted to ask at the time of need whether they
are all in network and employees of the facility I am visiting that day. Countering the
argument by insurance, doctors, and hospitals complain healthcare insurance companies have the
upper hand due to size and market control and can pay the increased costs of out-of-network
pricing. As shown chart 1, their claims are not precisely true and the market for healthcare
has become less competitive as hospitals and ACOs buy up the competition.
"Providers are more concentrated than insurers in almost 60 percent of US metro
areas . Health plans hold an edge in only 6 percent of local markets. National and state
level studies reveal a steady rise in concentration among specialist physicians, primary care
providers, and hospitals alike. As Brent D. Fulton notes, concentration of
insurers fell slightly from 2010 to 2016, while concentration rose for both specialist
physicians and hospitals. The evidence suggests provider organizations will retain significant
bargaining leverage even after out-of-network billing reform, leaving little scope or incentive
or capability for insurers to push prices down sharply. "
Meanwhile, the naysayers are battling constructive resolution with $millions in countering
ads and intense lobbying of Congress to delay and/or deny resolution of overpriced surprised
billing of patients of which had no choice, many more are still being hit with bills there is
little explanation for except greed. We do need Single Payer. Nough said . . .
Congress has till February 22nd to resolve the deadlock before the current temporary bill
expires. I would take the Education and Labor approach, which is also backed by the House
Energy and Commerce Committee, and the Senate Health Committee. It would set the payment rate
based on the median amount paid for that service in the geographic area with the option of
going to arbitration for some higher-cost bills. It result in greater savings.
steve , February 18, 2020 5:25 pm
We (anesthesiology) are par with everything that our network accepts. I am not a fan
of surprise billing, but I dont think you grasp all of the issues here. Medicare
reimburses at much lower rates than does private insurance in my specialty. If you work
in a place with a high percentage of Medicare (or Medicaid which is worse) like we do,
you cannot come close to earning market salaries. So we, many years ago, ended up working
95th percentile or worse hours (over 70 per week) while earning in the 15th-20th
percentile in income. We lost a lot of staff. The hospital had to make up the difference
so that we could hire and retain people. We were fortunate that our hospital had the
resources to do that.
Up north of us another hospital faced a similar situation, but they didn't have the
resources to subsidize their staff. So they fired a good team and brought in another.
Told them it was OK to not bill in accordance with what the hospital accepted, like the
prior group did. That let the new group earn enough, for a while, to hire and retain
people. Hospital eventually failed anyway and had to be bought out.
I think most of the groups that I know are surprise billing are pretty greedy and
sleazy, so I stay away from them. However, there are other cases where groups are in a
tough situation and pretty desperate. Especially smaller rural hospitals that have
trouble finding staff to begin with.
As the coronavirus outbreak has come to dominate headlines in recent weeks, several media
outlets have promoted claims that the reported epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China was
also the site of laboratories allegedly linked to a Chinese government biowarfare program.
However, upon further examination of the sourcing for this serious claim, these supposed
links between the outbreak and an alleged Chinese bioweapons program have come from two highly
dubious sources.
Link Bookmark For instance, the first outlet to report on this claim was Radio Free
Asia , the U.S.-government funded media outlet targeting Asian audiences that used to be
run covertly by the CIA and named by the New York Times as a key part in the agency's "
worldwide propaganda network ." Though it is no longer run directly by the CIA, it
is now
managed by the government-funded Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG), which answers
directly to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was CIA director immediately prior to his
current post at the head of the State Department.
In other words, Radio Free Asia and other BBG-managed media outlets are legal outlets
for U.S. government propaganda. Notably, the long-standing ban on the domestic use of U.S.
government propaganda on U.S. citizens
was lifted in 2013 , with the official justification of allowing the government to
"effectively communicate in a credible way" and to better combat "al-Qaeda's and other violent
extremists' influence."
Returning to the subject at hand, Radio Free Asia 's recent report on the alleged
origins of the outbreak being linked to a Chinese state-linked virology center cited only Ren
Ruihong, the former head of the medical assistance department at the Chinese Red Cross, for
that claim. Ruihong has been cited as an
expert in several Radio Free Asia reports on disease outbreaks in China, but has not
been cited as an expert by any other English-language media outlet.
"It's a new type of mutant coronavirus.They haven't made public the genetic sequence,
because it is highly contagious Genetic engineering technology has gotten to such a point
now, and Wuhan is home to a viral research center that is under the aegis of the China
Academy of Sciences, which is the highest level of research facility in China."
Though Ruihong did not directly say that the Chinese government was making a bioweapon at
the Wuhan facility, she did imply that genetic experiments at the facility may have resulted in
the creation of this new "mutant coronavirus" at the center of the outbreak.
With Radio Free Asia and its single source having speculated about Chinese government
links to the creation of the new coronavirus, the Washington Times soon took it much
farther in a report titled "
Virus-hit Wuhan has two laboratories linked to Chinese bio-warfare program ." That article,
much like Radio Free Asia 's earlier report, cites a single source for that claim,
former Israeli military intelligence biowarfare specialist Dany Shoham.
Yet, upon reading the article, Shoham does not even directly make the claim cited in the
article's headline, as he only told the Washington Times that: "Certain laboratories in
the [Wuhan] institute have probably been engaged, in terms of research and development,
in Chinese [biological weapons], at least collaterally , yet not as a principal
facility of the Chinese BW alignment (emphasis added)."
While Shoham's claims are clearly speculative, it is telling that the Washington
Times would bother to cite him at all, especially given the key role he played in promoting
false claims that the 2001
Anthrax attacks was the work of Iraq's Saddam Hussein . Shoham's assertions about Iraq's
government and weaponized Anthrax, which were used
to bolster the case for the 2003 invasion of Iraq , have since been proven completely
false, as Iraq was found to have neither the chemical or biological "weapons of mass
destruction" that "experts" like Shoham had claimed.
Beyond Shoham's own history of making suspect claims, it is also worth noting that Shoham's
previous employer, Israeli military intelligence, has a troubling past with bioweapons. For
instance, in the late 1990s, it was reported by several outlets that
Israel was in the process of developing a genetic bioweapon that would target Arabs,
specifically Iraqis, but leave Israeli Jews unaffected.
Given the dubious past of Shoham and the clearly speculative nature of both his claims and
those made in the Radio Free Asia report, one passage in
the Washington Times article is particularly telling about why these claims have
recently surfaced:
"One ominous sign, said a U.S. official, is that the false rumors since the outbreak began
several weeks ago have begun circulating on the Chinese Internet claiming the virus is
part of a U.S. conspiracy to spread germ weapons . That could indicate China is
preparing propaganda outlets to counter future charges the new virus escaped from one of
Wuhan's civilian or defense research laboratories (emphasis added)."
However, as seen in that very article, accusations that the coronavirus escaped from a
Chinese-state-linked laboratory is hardly a future charge as both the Washington
Times and Radio Free Asia have already been making that claim. Instead, what this
passage suggests is that the reports in both Radio Free Asia and the Washington
Times were responses to the claims circulating within China that the outbreak is linked to
a "U.S. conspiracy to spread germ weapons."
Though most English-language media outlets to date have not examined such a possibility,
there is considerable supporting evidence that deserves to be examined. For instance, not only
was the U.S. military, including its controversial research arm -- the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency (DARPA), recently funding studies in and near China that discovered
new, mutant coronaviruses originating from bats, but the Pentagon also became recently
concerned about the potential use of bats as bioweapons.
In addition, one preliminary study on
the coronavirus responsible for the current outbreak found that the receptor,
Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), is not only the same as that used by the SARS
coronavirus, but that East Asians present a much higher ratio of lung cells that express that
receptor than the other ethnicities (Caucasian and African-American) included in the study.
However, such findings are preliminary and the sample size is too small to draw any definitive
conclusions from that preliminary data.
Two years ago,
media reports began discussing the Pentagon's sudden concern that bats could be used as
biological weapons, particularly in spreading coronaviruses and other deadly diseases. The
Washington Post asserted that the Pentagon's interest in investigating the potential use
of bats to spread weaponized and deadly diseases was because of alleged Russian efforts to do
the same. However, those claims regarding this Russian interest in using bats as bioweapons
date back to the 1980s when the Soviet Union engaged in covert research involving the Marburg
virus, research that
did not even involve bats and which ended with the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991.
Like much of the Pentagon's controversial research programs, the bats as bioweapons research
has been framed
as defensive , despite the fact that no imminent threat involving bat-propagated bioweapons
has been acknowledged. However, independent scientists have recently accused the Pentagon,
particularly its research arm DARPA, of claiming to be engaged in research it says is
"defensive" but is actually "offensive."
The most recent example of this involved DARPA's "Insect Allies" program , which
officially "aims to protect the U.S. agricultural food supply by delivering protective genes to
plants via insects, which are responsible for the transmission of most plant viruses" and to
ensure "food security in the event of a major threat," according to both DARPA and media
reports .
However, a group of well-respected, independent scientists revealed in
a scathing analysis of the program that, far from a "defensive" research project, the
Insect Allies program was aimed at creating and delivering "new class of biological weapon."
The scientists,
writing in the journal Science and led by Richard Guy Reeves, from the Max Planck
Institute for Evolutionary Biology in Germany, warned that DARPA's program -- which uses
insects as the vehicle for as horizontal environmental genetic alteration agents (HEGAAS) --
revealed "an intention to develop a means of delivery of HEGAAs for offensive purposes
(emphasis added)."
Whatever the real motivation behind the Pentagon's sudden and recent concern about bats
being used as a vehicle for bioweapons, the U.S. military has spent millions of dollars over
the past several years funding research on bats, the deadly viruses they can harbor --
including coronaviruses -- and how those viruses are transmitted from bats to humans.
For instance, DARPA
spent $10 million on one project in 2018 "to unravel the complex causes of bat-borne
viruses that have recently made the jump to humans, causing concern among global health
officials." Another research project
backed by both DARPA and NIH saw researchers at Colorado State University examine the
coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in bats and camels "to
understand the role of these hosts in transmitting disease to humans." Other U.S.
military-funded studies, discussed in detail later in this report, discovered several new
strains of novel coronaviruses carried by bats, both within China and in countries bordering
China.
Many of these recent research projects are related to DARPA's Preventing Emerging Pathogenic Threats,
or PREEMPT program , which was officially announced in April 2018. PREEMPT focuses
specifically on animal reservoirs of disease, specifically bats, and DARPA even noted in its
press release in the program that it "is aware of biosafety and biosecurity sensitivities that
could arise" due to the nature of the research.
DARPA's announcement for PREEMPT came just a few months after the U.S. government decided to
controversially end a moratorium on so-called "gain-of-function" studies involving dangerous
pathogens. VICE News explained "gain-of-function" studies as follows:
"Known as 'gain-of-function' studies, this type of research is ostensibly about trying to
stay one step ahead of nature. By making super-viruses that are more pathogenic and easily
transmissibl e, scientists are able to study the way these viruses may evolve and how
genetic changes affect the way a virus interacts with its host. Using this information, the
scientists can try to pre-empt the natural emergence of these traits by developing
antiviral medications that are capable of staving off a pandemic (emphasis added)."
It is also important to point out the fact that the U.S. military's key laboratories
involving the study of deadly pathogens, including coronaviruses, Ebola and others, was
suddenly shut down last July after the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
identified
major "biosafety lapses" at the facility .
The U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) facility at Fort
Detrick, Maryland -- the U.S. military's lead laboratory for "biological defense" research
since the late 1960s -- was
forced to halt all research it was conducting with a series of deadly pathogens after the
CDC found that it lacked "sufficient systems in place to decontaminate wastewater" from its
highest-security labs and failure of staff to follow safety procedures, among other lapses. The
facility contains both level 3 and level 4 biosafety labs. While it is unknown if experiments
involving coronaviruses were ongoing at the time, USAMRIID has recently been
involved in research borne out of the Pentagon's recent concern about the use of bats as
bioweapons.
The decision to shut down USAMRIID garnered surprisingly little media coverage, as did the
CDC's
surprising decision to allow the troubled facility to "partially resume" research late last
November even though the facility
was and is still not at "full operational capability ." The USAMRIID's problematic record
of safety at such facilities is of particular concern in light of the recent coronavirus
outbreak in China. As this report will soon reveal, this is because USAMRIID has a decades-old
and close partnership with the University of Wuhan's Institute of Medical Virology, which is
located in the epicenter of the current outbreak.
The Pentagon in Wuhan?
Beyond the U.S. military's recent expenditures on and interest in the use of bats of
bioweapons, it is also worth examining the recent studies the military has funded regarding
bats and "novel coronaviruses," such as that behind the recent outbreak, that have taken place
within or in close proximity to China.
For instance, one study conducted in Southern China
in 2018 resulted in the discovery of 89 new "novel bat coronavirus" strains that use the
same receptor as the coronavirus known as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). That study
was jointly funded by the Chinese government's Ministry of Science and Technology, USAID -- an
organization long alleged to be
a front for U.S. intelligence , and the U.S. National Institute of Health -- which
has collaborated
with both the CIA and the Pentagon on infectious disease and bioweapons research.
The authors of the study also sequenced the complete genomes for two of those strains and
also noted that existing MERS vaccines would be ineffective in targeting these viruses, leading
them to suggest that one should be developed in advance. This did not occur.
Another U.S. government-funded study that discovered still more new strains of "novel bat
coronavirus" was published just last year. Titled " Discovery and Characterization of Novel Bat
Coronavirus Lineages from Kazakhstan ," focused on "the bat fauna of central Asia, which
link China to eastern Europe" and the novel bat coronavirus lineages discovered during the
study were found to be "closely related to bat coronaviruses from China, France, Spain, and
South Africa, suggesting that co-circulation of coronaviruses is common in multiple bat species
with overlapping geographical distributions." In other words, the coronaviruses discovered in
this study were identified in bat populations that migrate between China and Kazakhstan, among
other countries, and is closely related to bat coronaviruses in several countries, including
China.
The study was entirely funded by the U.S.
Department of Defense, specifically the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) as part of a
project investigating coronaviruses similar to MERS, such as the aforementioned 2018 study.
Yet, beyond the funding of this 2019 study, the institutions involved in conducting this study
are also worth noting given their own close ties to the U.S. military and government.
The study's authors are affiliated with either the Kazakhstan-based Research Institute for
Biological Safety Problems and/or Duke University. The Research Institute for Biological Safety
Problems, though officially a part of Kazakhstan's National Center for Biotechnology,
has received millions
from the U.S. government, most of it coming from the Pentagon's Cooperative
Threat Reduction Program . It is the Kazakhstan government's official depository of "highly dangerous animal
and bird infections, with a collection of 278 pathogenic strains of 46 infectious diseases." It
is part of a
network of Pentagon-funded "bioweapons labs" throughout the Central Asian country, which
borders both of the U.S.' top rival states -- China and Russia.
Duke University is also
jointly partnered with China's Wuhan University, which is based in the city where the
current coronavirus outbreak began, which resulted in the opening of the China-based Duke
Kunshan University (DKU) in 2018. Notably, China's Wuhan University -- in addition to its
partnership with Duke -- also includes a multi-lab Institute of Medical Virology that has
worked closely with the US Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases since the
1980s, according
to its website . As previously noted, the USAMRIID facility in the U.S. was shut down last
July for failures to abide by biosafety and proper waste disposal procedures, but was allowed
to partially resume some experiments late last November.
The Pentagon's Dark History of Germ Warfare
The U.S. military has a troubling past of having used disease as a weapon during times of
war. One example involved the U.S.' use of germ warfare during the Korean War, when it
targeted both
North Korea and China by dropping diseased insects and voles carrying a variety of
pathogens -- including bubonic plague and hemorrhagic fever -- from planes in the middle of the
night. Despite the mountain of evidence and the testimony of U.S. soldiers involved in that
program, the U.S. government and military denied the claims and ordered the destruction of
relevant documentation.
In the post World War II era, other examples of U.S. research aimed at developing biological
weapons have emerged, some of which have recently received media attention. One such example
occurred this past July, when the U.S. House of Representatives
demanded information from the U.S. military on its past efforts to weaponize insects and
Lyme disease between 1950 and 1975.
The U.S. has claimed that it has not pursued offensive biological weapons since 1969 and
this has been further supported by the U.S.' ratification of the Biological Weapons Convention
(BWC), which went into effect in 1975. However, there is
extensive evidence that the U.S. has continued to covertly research and develop such
weapons in the years since, much of it conducted abroad and outsourced to private companies,
yet still funded by the U.S. military. Several investigators, including Dilyana Gaytandzhieva,
have documented how
the U.S. produces deadly viruses, bacteria and other toxins at facilities outside of the U.S.
-- many of them in Eastern Europe, Africa and South Asia -- in clear violation of the BWC.
Aside from the military's own research, the controversial neoconservative think tank, the
now defunct Project for a New American Century (PNAC), openly promoted the use of a
race-specific genetically modified bioweapon as a "politically useful tool." In what is
arguably the think tank's most controversial document, titled " Rebuilding America's
Defenses ," there are a few passages that openly discuss the utility of bioweapons,
including the following sentences:
" combat likely will take place in new dimensions: in space, "cyber-space," and perhaps
the world of microbes advanced forms of biological warfare that can "target" specific
genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful
tool."
Though numerous members of PNAC were prominent in the George W. Bush administration, many of
its more controversial members have again risen to political prominence in the Trump
administration.
Several years after "Rebuilding America's Defenses" was published, the U.S. Air Force
published a document entitled " Biotechnology: Genetically Engineered
Pathogens ," which contains the following passage:
"The JASON group, composed of academic scientists, served as technical advisers to the U.
S. government. Their study generated six broad classes of genetically engineered pathogens
that could pose serious threats to society. These include but are not limited to binary
biological weapons, designer genes, gene therapy as a weapon, stealth viruses, host-swapping
diseases, and designer diseases (emphasis added)."
Concerns about Pentagon experiments with biological weapons have garnered renewed media
attention, particularly after it was
revealed in 2017 that DARPA was the top funder of the controversial "gene drive"
technology, which has the power to permanently alter the genetics of entire populations while
targeting others for extinction. At least two of DARPA's studies using this controversial
technology were classified and "focused on the potential military application of gene drive
technology and use of gene drives in agriculture," according to media reports .
The revelation came after an organization called the ETC Group obtained over 1,000 emails on
the military's interest in the technology as part of a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
request. Co-director of the ETC Group Jim Thomas said that this technology may be
used as a biological weapon:
"Gene drives are a powerful and dangerous new technology and potential biological weapons
could have disastrous impacts on peace, food security and the environment, especially if
misused, The fact that gene drive development is now being primarily funded and structured by
the US military raises alarming questions about this entire field."
Though the exact motivation behind the military's interest in such technology is unknown,
the Pentagon has been open about the fact that it is devoting much of its resources towards the
containment of what it considers the
two greatest threats to U.S. military hegemony: Russia and China. China has been cited as
the greatest threat of the two by several Pentagon officials, including John Rood, the
Pentagon's top adviser for defense policy,
who described China as the greatest threat to "our way of life in the United States" at the
Aspen Security Forum last July.
Since the Pentagon began "
redesigning " its policies and research towards a "
long war " with Russia and China, the Russian military
has accused the U.S. military of
harvesting DNA from Russians as part of a covert bioweapon program, a charge that the
Pentagon has adamantly denied. Major General Igor Kirillov, the head of the Russian military's
radiation, chemical and biological protection unit who made these claims, also asserted that
the U.S. was developing such weapons in close proximity to Russian and Chinese borders.
China has also accused the U.S. military of harvesting DNA from Chinese citizens with ill
intentions, such as when 200,000 Chinese
farmers were used in 12 genetic experiments without informed consent. Those experiments
had
been conducted by Harvard researchers as part of a U.S. government-funded project.
Darpa and Its Partners Chosen to Develop Coronavirus Vaccine
Last Thursday, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) announced that it
would fund three separate programs in order to promote the development of a vaccine for the new
coronavirus responsible for the current outbreak.
CEPI -- which describes itself as "a partnership of public, private, philanthropic and civil
organizations that will finance and co-ordinate the development of vaccines against high
priority public health threats" -- was founded in 2017 by the governments of Norway and India
along with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Its massive
funding and close connections to public, private and non-profit organizations have positioned
it to be able to finance the rapid creation of vaccines and widely distribute them.
CEPI's recent announcement revealed that it would fund two pharmaceutical companies --
Inovio Pharmaceuticals and Moderna Inc. -- as well as Australia's University of Queensland,
which became
a partner of CEPI early last year. Notably, the two pharmaceutical companies chosen have
close ties to and/or strategic partnerships with DARPA and are developing vaccines that
controversially involve genetic material and/or gene editing. The University of Queensland also
has ties to DARPA, but those ties are not related to the university's biotechnology research,
but instead engineering and
missile development .
For instance, the top funders of Inovio Pharmaceuticals include
both DARPA and the Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the company has
received millions in dollars in grants from DARPA, including
a $45 million grant to develop a vaccine for Ebola. Inovio specializes in the creation of
DNA immunotherapies and DNA vaccines, which contain genetically engineered DNA that causes the
cells of the recipient to produce an antigen and can permanently alter a person's DNA. Inovio
previously developed a DNA vaccine for the Zika virus, but -- to date -- no DNA vaccine has
been approved for use in humans in the United States. Inovio was also recently
awarded over $8 million from the U.S. military to develop a small, portable intradermal
device for delivering DNA vaccines jointly developed by Inovio and USAMRIID.
However, the CEPI grant to combat coronavirus may change that, as it specifically funds
Inovio's efforts to continue developing its DNA vaccine for the coronavirus that causes MERS.
Inovio's MERS vaccine program
began in 2018 in partnership with CEPI in a deal worth $56 million. The vaccine currently
under development
uses "Inovio's DNA Medicines platform to deliver optimized synthetic antigenic genes into
cells, where they are translated into protein antigens that activate an individual's immune
system" and the program is partnered with U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious
Diseases (USAMRIID) and the NIH, among others. That program is currently undergoing testing in
the Middle East.
Inovio's collaboration with the U.S. military in regards to DNA vaccines is nothing new, as
their past efforts to develop a DNA vaccine for both Ebola and Marburg virus were also part of
what
Inovio's CEO Dr. Joseph Kim called its "active biodefense program" that has "garnered
multiple grants from the Department of Defense, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA),
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and other government
agencies."
CEPI's interest in increasing its support to this MERS-specific program seems at odds with
its claim that doing so will combat the current coronavirus outbreak, since MERS and the novel
coronavirus in question are not analogous and treatments for certain coronaviruses have
been shown to
be ineffective against other strains.
It is also worth noting that Inovio Pharmaceuticals was the only company selected by CEPI
with direct access to the Chinese pharmaceutical market through
its partnership with China's ApolloBio Corp. , which currently has an exclusive license to
sell Inovio-made DNA immunotherapy products to Chinese customers.
The second pharmaceutical company that was selected by CEPI to develop a vaccine for the new
coronavirus is Moderna Inc., which will develop a vaccine for the novel coronavirus of concern
in collaboration with the U.S. NIH and which will be funded entirely by CEPI. The vaccine in
question, as opposed to Inovio's DNA vaccine, will be a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine. Though
different than a DNA vaccine, mRNA vaccines still use genetic material "to direct the body's
cells to produce intracellular, membrane or secreted proteins."
Moderna's mRNA treatments, including its mRNA vaccines, were largely developed using
a $25 million grant from DARPA and it often touts is strategic alliance with DARPA
in press releases . Moderna's past and ongoing research efforts have included developing mRNA vaccines
tailored to an individual's unique DNA as well as an unsuccessful effort to create a mRNA
vaccine for the Zika Virus, which was funded by the U.S. government.
Both DNA and mRNA vaccines involve the introduction of foreign and engineered genetic
material into a person's cells and past studies have found that such vaccines
"possess significant unpredictability and a number of inherent harmful potential hazards" and
that "there is inadequate knowledge to define either the probability of unintended events or
the consequences of genetic modifications." Nonetheless, the climate of fear surrounding the
coronavirus outbreak could be enough for the public and private sector to develop and
distribute such controversial treatments due to fear about the epidemic potential of the
current outbreak.
However, the therapies being developed by Inovio, Modern and the University of Queensland
are in alignment with DARPA's objectives regarding gene editing and vaccine technology. For
instance, in 2015, DARPA geneticist Col. Daniel Wattendorf
described how the agency was investigating a "new method of vaccine production [that] would
involve giving the body instructions for making certain antibodies. Because the body would be
its own bioreactor, the vaccine could be produced much faster than traditional methods and the
result would be a higher level of protection."
According to
media reports on Wattendorf's statements at the time, the vaccine would be developed as
follows:
"Scientists would harvest viral antibodies from someone who has recovered from a disease
such as flu or Ebola. After testing the antibodies' ability to neutralize viruses in a petri
dish, they would isolate the most effective one, determine the genes needed to make that
antibody, and then encode many copies of those genes into a circular snippet of genetic
material -- either DNA or RNA, that the person's body would then use as a cookbook to
assemble the antibody."
Though Wattendorf asserted that the effects of those vaccines wouldn't be permanent, DARPA
has since been promoting permanent gene modifications as a means of protecting U.S. troops from
biological weapons and infectious disease. "Why is DARPA doing this? [To] protect a soldier on
the battlefield from chemical weapons and biological weapons by controlling their genome --
having the genome produce proteins that would automatically protect the soldier from the inside
out," then-DARPA director Steve Walker (now with Lockheed Martin)
said this past September of the project, known as " Safe Genes ."
Conclusion
Research conducted by the Pentagon, and DARPA specifically, has continually raised concerns,
not just in the field of bioweapons and biotechnology, but also in the fields of
nanotechnology, robotics and several others. DARPA, for instance, has been developing a series
of unsettling research projects that ranges from
microchips that can create and delete memories from the human brain to
voting machine software that is rife with problems.
Now, as fear regarding the current coronavirus outbreak begins to peak, companies with
direct ties to DARPA have been tasked with developing its vaccine, the long-term human and
environmental impacts of which are unknown and will remain unknown by the time the vaccine is
expected to go to market in a few weeks time.
Furthermore, DARPA and the Pentagon's past history with bioweapons and their more recent
experiments on genetic alteration and extinction technologies as well as bats and coronaviruses
in proximity to China have been largely left out of the narrative, despite the information
being publicly available. Also left out of the media narrative have been the direct ties of
both the USAMRIID and DARPA-partnered Duke University to the city of Wuhan, including its
Institute of Medical Virology.
Though much about the origins of the coronavirus outbreak remains unknown, the U.S.
military's ties to the aforementioned research studies and research institutions are worth
detailing as such research -- while justified in the name of "national security" -- has the
frightening potential to result in unintended, yet world-altering consequences. The lack of
transparency about this research, such as DARPA's decision to classify its controversial
genetic extinction research and the technology's use as a weapon of war, compounds these
concerns. While it is important to avoid reckless speculation as much as possible, it is the
opinion of this author that the information in this report is in the public interest and that
readers should use this information to reach their own conclusions about the topics discussed
herein.
Interesting and thought provoking article. Queensland University is in Brisbane, the capital
city of Queensland. Also in Brisbane is the suburb of Hendra, where the Hendra virus was
first identified. It too appears to be transmitted by bats to animals and humans.
Israel has a long and well documented record of using bio-weapons against the British,
Syrians, Egyptians and of course the Palestinian civilian population in 1947 and 1948, see
Traces of Poison,
Another great article by Whitney Webb, thank you. After reading the article I am now more
inclined to believe some of the rumors suggesting that the Wuhan Coronavirus was possibly
leaked from a biological research lab in Wuhan. Especially after reading about the direct
ties of USAMRIID and DARPA-partnered Duke University to the Institute of Medical Virology in
Wuhan.
Also, I read that patient zero was diagnosed on Dec. 1 long before the Chinese official
statements of Dec. 31 and the fact that patient zero had no contact with the wet market that
was supposed to be the origin of the virus. Of course it's still early and a great deal of
confusion but as someone famously said" "All governments lie".
Thank you for this post. This is an important topic that needs to be discussed.
Again Dr. ZDogg: "Guess what's going to happen to her insurance premiums next year?
They're going to go up by 10%, 15%, 20 percent. And what will happen at employers around
the country who are paying most of the bill? They're going to drop or keep wages flat
(happening today). Healthcare becomes a financial albatross with collusion between
healthcare providers charging a bunch of money and insurance companies paying it, hospitals
overbuilding, overcharging, and doing stuff we don't even need. The results of these money
games are a minority of people getting rich and everybody else's wages staying stagnant. 1
in 5 Americans have collection agencies coming after them for medical bills that are
inflated and unnecessary.
BTW this is the same price inflation dynamic that we observe in body shops and car
insurance companies. Kind of evil symbiosis that develops. So this is a more general
phenomenon than just healthcare.
Is the American deep state that good in being a perfectly timed evil? Wasn't the deep state
designed to assist multinational corporations in stealing foreign resources? Yet the
corporate supply chain is being interrupted in what will be devastating for the bottom line.
The stock market is about all Trump has. The scenario outlined above just quite doesn't add
up, despite its plausibility. Unless it is not about China, but purging Trump .maybe?
If the mortality rate is 1% and Coronavirus infects 20% of global population, something
like 16 million people will die. Let's hope the virus doesn't mutate to a more lethal
form.
The supply chains from China are now toast. Will be interesting to see how long the Fed
can create enough digital currency to prop up the markets while things fall apart.
The Center for Disease Control in the U.S. does not and never did have any kind of definitive
count of flu deaths here. They estimate the number from mathematical modeling based on (U.S.
numbers, 2020 Weeks 1-5):
1) total deaths - 240,000
2) pneumonia deaths - 15,700
3) primary cause/lab confirmed flu deaths 1,723
I don't think the CDC even publishes their model estimate of weekly deaths caused by
the flu . They only publish the % of total deaths (5-7%) as flu deaths, but that number
seems to be just the confirmed flu + pneumonia deaths.
Just for illustration, if the same 330 million U.S. 'regular' seasonal flu CDC numbers
were applied to the population of Hubei for weeks 1-5, you would get:
43,000 total deaths
2,800 pneumonia deaths
310 confirmed flu deaths
The CDC equivalent U.S. numbers would translate to 3,100 deaths from seasonal flu in Hubei
the first five weeks of this year.
What we really want to know is how many excess deaths coronavirus has really caused
in Hubei. Expecting either the CPC, WHO or the U.S. government to cough up that number with
any kind of accuracy without being told the number of 'regular' flu cases is pointless.
There is scare propaganda everywhere - especially on Zero Hedge. There are speculations that
it is a bioweapon made in a semi secret Chinese bioweapons laboratory placed oddly in the
very large city of Wuhan where it escaped. Since this is somewhat suggested by US government
types it gives rise to the thought that this is indeed a bioweapon but made by the US. US
laboratory weaponized anthrax was used shortly after 9/11.
Most of us have heard about the Tuskeegee experiments on blacks and recently exposed about
experiments using Guatemalans. I have even read Vanderbilt Medical School gave irradiated
iron to pregnant white women in the 50s. (They were, of course, poor white trash and only one
of the resulting babies got cancer.)
It is pretty well confirmed that the US introduced swine fever to Cuba and later a foreign
strain of dengue fever so as to cause hemorrhagic dengue fever in people who had previously
had the local Caribbean variety.
I forget where the US used screw worms (was it Nicaraugua. It is well known that the US
tried to use biowarfare utilizing anthrax against N Korean and China during that war - not
only from captured USA pilot sources.
So with the present antagonism of the US and China it doesn't seem unlikely to me. On one
hand it is the flu season. On the other there is the timing of the Chinese New Year. And the
timing of that corona virus pandemic presentation associated with Bill Gates and the pentagon
people just a month before the outbreak arouses my suspicians. There is a large number of
pigs in China and China is crowded but it has been devastating for a people that eat mainly
pork as meat. And how many avian flu epidemics there in the last few years? And SARS. There
are the recent revelations of a Pentagon sponsored animal pathogen lab in Georgia (bordering
Russia). Less seriously I mention the series, the Americans, with them investigating a plot
of the Americans to destroy the wheat crop in Russia. A country whose military is lately only
good for turning cities and countries into rubble I wouldn't put it past them to initiate
biowarfare on a perceived opponent.
"On October 18th the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, in conjunction with the World
Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, brought together "15 leaders of
business, government, and public health" to simulate a scenario in which a coronavirus
pandemic was ravaging the planet. Major participants were American military leadership, and
certain neocon political figures.
"The Chinese were not invited. This is unusual, as almost all the major viral outbreaks
for the last decade occurred inside of China and Africa."
This is patently untrue, as my post #15 to Godfree Roberts' January 28th article here on
Unz made abundantly clear:
-- -- -- -- –
Godfree Roberts writes:
"On October 18th, 2019, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, in conjunction with
the World Economic Forum assembled "15 leaders of business, government, and public health" to
simulate a scenario in which a coronavirus pandemic was ravaging the planet. Major
participants were American military leadership, and certain neocon political figures. The
Chinese were not invited."
This appears to be incorrect. Dr George F. Gao, head of China's CDC was not only invited,
but was openly listed as a major player at this conference, one of the very "15 leaders"
cited by Mr Roberts (see here: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/players/index.html
)
That Dr. George F. Gao is the head of China's CDC, and one of China's top virologists, if
not the top virologist, is found here, in Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_F._Gao
-- -- -- -- -
Also, please note the following: apparently one of the world's greatest experts on
Corona viruses has (allegedly) informed an investor group that the novel corona virus is
simply a very severe cold virus, which will almost assuredly burn itself out by mid to late
spring, as corona viruses don't replicate well in warmer, wetter environs, but flourish in
cold dry circumstances, and that the corona virus will likely not become endemic, but will be
a simple flash-in-the-pan:
https://www.sott.net/article/429100-Coronavirus-Expert-in-Leaked-Analysis-This-is-Just-a-Severe-Localized-Common-Cold
Of course, Dr Nicholls could be lying as part of another Western conspiracy, trying to
make the east asian authorities let down their collective guards against a well-planned
bio-weapons assault, but somehow I doubt a world-renowned Corona virus expert would take such
a gambit in the context of his leaked comments, i.e., to a bunch of wealthy investors seeking
advise on the subject at hand. Not impossible, just unlikely.
However, the ease of transmission certainly IS something which should give us pause, and
coupled with the fact it apparently targets east asians of Chinese descent, should also give
rise to reasonable suspicions about its origin.
But the Chinese government has been, and will likely continue to insist that any and all
such 'conspiracy theories' are ridiculous, as the Chinese, even if they knew otherwise, would
also know such claims would be met with 'hails of derisive laughter' (to quote from the
famous "Bruces" Monty Python sketch), and FAR more importantly, know all too well that
revenge in such circumstances is a dish served very, very cold
Jon Rappoport's blog questioning suppositions about the corona virus is a good one to read.
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/10/china-epidemic-cases-with-no-coronavirus-what/
There is scare propaganda everywhere - especially on Zero Hedge. There are speculations that
it is a bioweapon made in a semi secret Chinese bioweapons laboratory placed oddly in the
very large city of Wuhan where it escaped. Since this is somewhat suggested by US government
types it gives rise to the thought that this is indeed a bioweapon but made by the US. US
laboratory weaponized anthrax was used shortly after 9/11. Most of us have heard about the
Tuskeegee experiments on blacks and recently exposed about experiments using Guatemalans. I
have even read Vanderbilt Medical School gave irradiated iron to pregnant white women in the
50s. (They were, of course, poor white trash and only one of the resulting babies got
cancer.) It is pretty well confirmed that the US introduced swine fever to Cuba and later a
foreign strain of dengue fever so as to cause hemorrhagic dengue fever in people who had
previously had the local Caribbean variety. I forget where the US used screw worms (was it
Nicaraugua. It is well known that the US tried to use biowarfare utilizing anthrax against N
Korean and China during that war - not only from captured USA pilot sources. So with the
present antagonism of the US and China it doesn't seem unlikely to me. On one hand it is the
flu season. On the other there is the timing of the Chinese New Year. And the timing of that
corona virus pandemic presentation associated with Bill Gates and the pentagon people just a
month before the outbreak arouses my suspicians. There is a large number of pigs in China and
China is crowded but it has been devastating for a people that eat mainly pork as meat. And
how many avian flu epidemics there in the last few years? And SARS. There are the recent
revelations of a Pentagon sponsored animal pathogen lab in Georgia (bordering Russia). Less
seriously I mention the series, the Americans, with them investigating a plot of the
Americans to destroy the wheat crop in Russia. A country whose military is lately only good
for turning cities and countries into rubble I wouldn't put it past them to initiate
biowarfare on a perceived opponent.
I personally do not believe in the bat to human transmission story at all.
Bat to human viral transmission is well known. See Hendra Virus which is a mighty deadly
little bundle.
I too am sceptical in this case as there are some strong stories of this coronavirus being
expertly fiddled and reconfigured for a deadlier impact. Some versions of this story have
been debunked but I have not followed the storyline intently as in forensically. More
information on the Canadian Lab and its inventory of pathogens might help but not much chance
of that.
I consider it probable that China has been attacked by another nation. The African swine
flu and the army worm outbreaks seem highly suspicious.
Dltravers: Sure but the US has a similar long track record of psychological warfare and the
"US did it" opinions are being twisted FUD-style into support for the narrative which attacks
China and the WHO and everyone who works with them as being clueless, useless, liars and so
on.
In a normal flu season in China 80,000 to 90,000 will die. In a bad flu season double that.
It is simply nonsense that China would turn itself upside down for a novel flu that had
claimed only 1300 additional lives. Oh, this began to be reported as a pandemic when the
numbers were a couple hundred. Local doctors would notice if there were a flu that was
conspicuously different, there would not be a national and a global response.
This does not mean the doom porn is believable. Particular warning against Epoch Times
which has been extremely active and widely cited/reposted. They are Falun Gong and will libel
China any way they can. All are advised to apply the epistemological question continuously.
At the moment there is no such thing as a credible source, only credulous consumers of
information.
The single study that has been misinterpreted as meaningful regarding Asians being more
susceptible to nCOV - cited ACE2 receptors as the cause.
The problem is - smoking is known to cause the abnormal development of ACE2 receptors. The
single Asian in the study was a smoker; only 1 of the other 5 was a smoker and the relative
level of smoking aren't documented.
However, from my personal experiences in China - Chinese men are heavy smokers - much more
so than women.
There may be a link between ACE2 and nCOV vulnerability - but if so, it is much more
likely due to smoking than it is due to ethnicity. That's why studies with higher n matter -
it is far easier to understand potential secondary lines of investigation from a large sample
set, plus high n means less likelihood of random shit skewing results.
This study notes there is *no* difference in ACE2 expression between different races,
people of different ages, etc - but there is a difference between smokers and non-smokers
ACE2
study
Recently, studies found that 2019-nCov and SARS-nCov share the same receptor, ACE2. In this
study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the
disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No
significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs
Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we
observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to non-smoker
samples.
This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking
history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing
treatment regimen.
There is not a note about air pollution - that is another possible factor. The
air pollution level in Wuhan actually worse than Beijing:
Relative air pollution Beijing vs. Wuhan
The SARS conspiracy theory began to emerge during the severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS) outbreak in China in the spring of 2003, when
Sergei Kolesnikov , [1] a Russian scientist and a member of the
Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, first publicized his claim that the SARS coronavirus is a synthesis of
measles and mumps . According to Kolesnikov, this
combination cannot be formed in the natural world and thus the SARS virus must have been
produced under laboratory conditions. Another Russian scientist, Nikolai Filatov , head of Moscow 's epidemiological services, had earlier
commented that the SARS virus was probably man-made. [2]
However, independent labs concluded these claims to be premature since the SARS virus is a
coronavirus ,
[3][4][5] whereas
measles and mumps are paramyxoviruses . [6][7] The primary
differences between a coronavirus and a paramyxovirus are in their structures and method of
infection, thus making it implausible for a coronavirus to have been created from two
paramyxoviruses. Overview [
edit ]
The widespread reporting of claims by Kolesnokov and Filatov caused controversy in many
Chinese internet discussion boards and chat rooms. Many Chinese believed that the SARS virus
could be a biological
weapon manufactured by the United States, which perceived China as a potential threat.
[8] The failure to
find the source of the SARS virus further convinced these people and many more that SARS was
artificially synthesised and spread by some individuals and even governments. Circumstantial
evidence suggests that the SARS virus crossed over to humans from Asian palm civets ("civet cats"), a type
of animal that is often killed and eaten in Guangdong , where SARS was first discovered.
[9][10]
Supporters of the conspiracy theory suggest that SARS caused the most serious harm in
mainland China, Hong Kong
, Taiwan and Singapore ,
regions where most Chinese reside, while the United States, Europe and Japan were not affected as much. However, the highest
mortality from SARS outside of China occurred in Canada where 43 died. [11][12]
Conspiracists further point out that SARS has an average mortality rate of around 10% around
the world, but no one died in the United States from SARS, despite the fact that there were 8
confirmed cases out of 27 probable cases (10% of 8 people is less than 1 person).
[11][13][14]
Regarding reasons why SARS patients in the United States experienced a relatively mild illness,
the U.S. Centers for Disease Control has
explained that anybody with fever and a respiratory symptom who had traveled to an affected
area was included as a SARS patient in the U.S., even though many of these were found to have
had other respiratory illnesses. [14][15]
In October 2003, Tong Zeng, a Chinese lawyer and a volunteer in a 1998 Chinese-American
medical cooperation program, published a book [16] that again
speculated that SARS could be a biological weapon developed by the United States against China.
In the book, Tong disclosed that in the 1990s, many American research groups collected
thousands of blood and
DNA samples and specimens of
mainland Chinese (including 5,000 DNA samples from twins ) through numerous joint research projects
carried out in China. These samples were then sent back to the United States for further
research, and could be used in developing biological weapons targeting Chinese. These samples
came from 22 provinces in China, all of which were hit by SARS in 2003. Only provinces like
Yunnan , Guizhou , Hainan , Tibet , and Xinjiang were left out, and all these provinces
suffered less severely during the SARS outbreak. The author suspects that Japan is also involved, as many Japanese
factories in Guangdong in the 1990s made it compulsory for all workers to have blood tests in
the factory annually, rather than asking workers to go to local hospitals for blood tests and a
proper physical examination. However, Tong Zeng admits that these are only speculations, and he
does not have any concrete proof from the study of the virus's genetic sequence . [17]
The two scientists named above expressed the possibility that the SARS virus was man-made.
[18] The SARS
coronavirus has been fully gene sequenced and that the genome has been made globally available.
[3]
There has been no evidence found of genetic engineering in the genome. The SARS coronavirus is
novel, but this only implies it has mutated or was previously undiscovered, not that it is
genetically engineered.
Coronaviruses
similar to SARS have been found in bats in China, suggesting they may be their natural
reservoir. [19]
Thanks for providing the CDC stats, b! They're all that's need to prove the hysteria aimed at
China is 100% political in a Psyop sense and not based on reality whatsoever. Indeed, the
Chinese have commented about that as soon as it began, and has now reached a point where
Chinese patience is wearing out as seen in this article :
"The novel coronavirus outbreak has given us a clearer understanding of US strategic
direction toward China. Although China is working hard to promote the relationship between
the two countries toward healthy and stable development, the recent strategic moves of the US
showed that a strong force in the US is pushing the ties toward a hostile path, which is
obviously making the future of Sino-US relations more unstable....
"The epidemic could become a chance for the two countries to cooperate and enhance mutual
trust, yet as China is all in to fight the virus, the death of Li is being exploited and
politicalized by some US politicians. This once again shows that attacking China's political
system has become part of the US' China strategy. It must realize that this is one of the
main causes of turbulence in China-US relations....
"China does not want to be a US rival, but if the US continues following this strategy,
it is making itself an enemy ." [My Emphasis]
Given the woeful state of healthcare within the Outlaw US Empire, many tens of thousands
would die if a similar outbreak occurred here. When that happens, I hope the DC Jingos are
the ones to die first.
I must admit it's been so hard to sift wheat from chaff on the sheer scale of reports coming
out form across the spectrum. From doom porn end of days stuff to it's just an Asian flu
thing.
Imperial College is a well respected institute in UK, this faculty guy has been saying a
few useful things:
ZH continues with the cataclysmic end of the world view.
My 5 cents for what its worth is it will diminish in Asia in the next month and a half,
may rear its head for a while in Europe to an extent to be determined by the spring climate.
Either way its those in marginal health, exhaustion, overworked and fragile who should take
most care.
Things to think about. First on the list is that all these numbers that are being thrown at
us are, one way or another, derivatives of the antibody test for this specific virus which
was developed in less than a month. Considering that we are at about 40 years and counting
for a AIDS vaccine, purportedly against another RNA virus, this one though a retrovirus, this
is certainly quick (and hopefully not dirty) work. Trying to get some details for this
miracle I came across this excerpt
=========
The first challenge of sequencing a coronavirus genome is that it's made of RNA rather than
DNA. Most of our tools for working with nucleic acids are specific to DNA. Fortunately, we've
discovered an enzyme called "" that takes RNA and makes a DNA copy of it -- transcription is
the copying of DNA into RNA; this enzyme does the opposite, hence the name. (Reverse
transcriptase was first identified in other RNA viruses that need to be copied into DNA as
part of infection.) Using reverse transcriptase, researchers were able to make DNA copies of
parts of 2019-nCoV as a first step to studying its genome.
But reverse transcription of samples from infected individuals would simply create a mess
of DNA fragments from everything present: the patient's own cells, harmless bacteria, and so
on. Fortunately, DNA sequencing and analysis techniques have become so advanced that it's now
possible to just sequence the whole mess, irrelevant stuff and all, and let computers sort
out what's present. Software is able to take what we know about the average coronavirus
genome and identify all of the fragments of sequence that look like they came from a
coronavirus. Other software can determine how all these fragments overlap and then stitch
them together, producing a near-complete coronavirus genome.
=====================
Sort of reminds me of the dictum to shoot everyone and let God sort them out.
Hopefully the RNA reverse transcriptase does a better job than Google Translate going from
Mandarin to English.
Since the antibody test was developed by a complex computer program based on a generic
sampling of the vast complex of various corona viruses (most of them either harmless or
slightly harmful to humans), there are very few people on the planet that could evaluate its
value and accuracy. Furthermore, it is based on a translation of the RNA into DNA via an
enzyme. Evaluators would need to be experts in both stereo computer programing and virology
and be allowed access to the source code.
My grandfather died of pneumonia at the age of 82. This is not rare at all, and the new
classification that may falsely diagnose pneumonia cases may be practical. Basically, the new
drug cocktail cannot be given to all pneumonia cases in China, there are limits on increase
of production and imports, but in Hubei they will be considered the new corona virus.
The course of the epidemic is hard to predict, finding therapies etc. is as paramount as
slowing the spread.
Cambodia gave berth to corona virus ship. There is a talk about depression in cruise
industry. Given that, I would recommend a cruise to North Pole. Not crowded, great unique
views, few viruses up there, nice weather: "normal Moscow winter clothing should be
sufficient" (around Summer solstice).
It's the reclassification by Cat scans (CT) scans. Modeling.
Spike in China virus cases doesn't show big shift in epidemic: WHO
GENEVA (Reuters) - The spike in cases reported from China reflects reclassifying a backlog
of suspect cases using patients' chest images and not necessarily the "tip of an iceberg"
of a wider epidemic, a top World Health Organization official said on Thursday.
"Crucially we understand that most of these cases relate to a period going back over
days and weeks and are retrospectively reported as cases, sometimes back to the beginning
of the outbreak itself," he told a news conference at WHO headquarters.
"We've seen this spike in the number of cases reported in China, but this does not
represent a significant change in the trajectory of the outbreak," he said. [.]
No significant shifts in mortality or severity patterns had been detected, Ryan
said.[.]
The truth is probably somewhere between Zerohedges sensationalism and B's 'nothing to see,
move along, have another joint approach'!
However, the cure may be worse than the disease. If China continues to lock down a third
or so of the nation, then the Chinese economy will collapse and the supply chains to the
world are going to evaporate.
Welcome to 'unintended consequences'.
It is this economic collapse which may be the true contagion!
I would like to know how Chinese workers in the affected zones will survive financially. It
sounds like they won't have medical bankruptcies, but how will they pay rent and buy food?
Even if regular employers still pay wages, I assume there are many workers who are day
laborers, self-employed, casual work, etc. Will they end up living on the street? That's
certainly what happens in Uncle Sam Land.
Americans experiencing coronavirus symptoms may have to wait longer to receive a
diagnosis from state health officials after the CDC revealed Wednesday that the 200
COVID-19 testing kits issued across the country last week may return inconclusive - neither
positive nor negative - results.
Some of the states identified some inconclusive laboratory results," Dr. Nancy
Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said
during the February 12 news conference, speaking on the states' own quality control
protocols regarding the kits.
Sorry b, but China would not fire its top provincial officials and Xi would not call it a
"grave situation" , if it wasn't a grave situation.
There are too many virus epidemics in China hitting people and wiping out animals (if you
haven't noticed) and that is a problem of chinese culture.
Many people overestimate China, forgetting that the country is still significantly poorer
than even Russia on per capita basis, and technologically has many problem areas - such as
being incapable of creating a good submarine, or putting a nuclear reactor on large surface
ship, or creating good aircraft, especially aircraft engines, or creating good radar
surveliance network (it needed help from Russia for many of those things), or creating good
air defense (had to buy S-400), etc.
While there are some areas where it the took the lead, there are also many areas where it
is lacking.
China will be on par with the US by 2030 as great power, but it is not right now, and it
is still relatively poor country on per capita basis, with many areas where it is lacking.
Not surprisingly it got bullied into buying 200 billion $ more in US goods, with half of US
tarrifs still not removed.
Excellent article at Counterpunch on NYT/CFR propaganda efforts.
"Instead of voicing support or encouraging solidarity–"We are Wuhan" -- western
corporate media have chosen to go all out to criticize and demonize China, sparing no effort
to recycle and rekindle ugly, racist, orientalist, and dehumanizing tropes, using any
perceived misstep, pretext, and shortcoming to tar China and the Chinese. One virulent
narrative is that this is deliberate Chinese bioweapon to reduce population, another
narrative, no less toxic and virulent, alleges that the Chinese leadership, out of a "fear of
political embarrassment", suppressed free speech and silenced the flow of information "at
critical moments", "allowing the virus to gain a tenacious hold", thus creating the
conditions for a lethal epidemic that has led to the deaths of hundreds and the infection of
thousands.
The NY Times takes the [yellow] cake for sowing this toxic, racist disinformation,
alleging in numerous articles and opinion pieces of a "cover up": that "China's old habits
put secrecy and order ahead of openly confronting the crisis"; that "they played down dangers
to the public, leaving the city's 11 million residents unaware that they should protect
themselves", and presenting this as proof dispositive that the Chinese system is fatally
flawed. All this while reveling in and boosting on its website, unseemly schadenfreude that
suppression of information and free speech has led to condign and expected catastrophe.
The most recent iteration of this propaganda concerns a Dr Li Wenliang..."
From the article I cited above - the following would be considered a "mission accomplished"
scenario of the CIA:
"c) Panicked, mass hysterical responses are not uncommon, and themselves can constitute a
public health hazard. Either of these effects, caused by premature or careless disclosure
could have resulted in:
i) People thinking themselves sick
ii) People crowding hospitals, stretching resources, while spreading the infection faster,
as well as preventing genuinely sick people from getting care (all at a time when public
services are winding down)
iii) Mass exodus, spreading the infection outside of Wuhan much faster
iv) Hoarding & scarcity of masks and other supplies, vigilante quarantines, and other
hysterical, dangerous, and unproductive behavior."
Hong Kong is not considered an area of geopolitical vulnerability by the Chinese Armed
Forces.
The two regions the PLA considers to be China's greatest vulnerability points, in order of
greatest and second greatest are: 1) Xinjiang and 2) Tibet. That, of course, from the outside
(i.e. an American attack).
Obviously, an internal rebellion in Wuhan (central China, the heart of Chinese communism)
would far surpass any military threat any of those regions could give to the CCP. Hence, of
course, the COVID-19 being a greater threat to the CCP than the latte-sipping liberals from
Hong Kong and the wannabe Americans from Taiwan could ever be.
One used to hear the Brits talk of the "Dunkirk Spirit". Similarly, one used to hear of the
American "can do" spirit.
Only in very recent years have I come to get a feel for the Chinese Spirit, and this
30-second news clip exemplifies it for me.
A Wuhan doctor has quarantined herself from her family, staying in a hotel while she
treats the outbreak. As she walks to work in the evening, her husband drives slowly behind
her to light the way. When she returns to the hotel, he has prepared a hot meal for her.
yesterday someone compared the death toll to be TENS OF MILLIONS while comparing nCov-19
to the 1918 pandemic ... but times have changed ... new technology, improved sanitary
science, and governments that have bullets .
Posted by: Barovsky | Feb 14 2020 0:04 utc | 34
that's what WaPo is also telling but i can't find numbers/graphs
Posted by: Pft | Feb 14 2020 0:36 utc | 37
i want what you're smoking ... wanna try dangerous things at least once in my life
"The United States is "deeply concerned" about the possible impact of a coronavirus
outbreak in North Korea and is prepared to help U.S. and international organizations contain
the spread of the virus, the State Department said on Thursday."
"...since then he appears resigned to the reality that all spooks are low life types
capable of any dastardly act." --A User @50
B has not yet given in to the level of cynicism necessary to fully acknowledge the true
depths of villainy of these spook gangs. We are talking gangs composed of the kinds of people
who as children torture small animals to death, but grow up to need larger victims to satisfy
their perverse lusts. Who is so naive as to believe that the CIA runs secret torture
facilities because they really think they can get useful information that way? Those
facilities are vacation resorts for staff who have served the gang well. They also serve as
initiation/training facilities for staff who might still be a little squeamish about spilling
the blood of helpless innocents.
Consider that these gangs of literal psychopaths are supplied with the almost limitless
cash that is raised by controlling global trade in drugs, slaves, and black market weapons.
Consider that they have free use of America's ridiculously extensive consular networks and
military bases. Consider that they can easily travel anywhere on diplomatic documents forged
by the US government itself, and you can start to see how these bloodthirsty monsters can get
away with what they do.
But wait! There's more!
They have "recruiters" , both formal and informal; covert and overt, on every major
college campus in the US. They make contacts with the choicest up-and-coming talent that
looks to go places in business and government. They volunteer "favors" for these kids,
building webs of obligation. They observe fraternity hazings to identify fellow sadists, or
where the opportunity arises push the fraternity hazing over the edge to collect blackmail
material for future use while simultaneously building out their web of obligation by offering
to help covering up grave transgressions against human decency. Commit an unforgivable act in
the presence of these CIA "recruiters" and they own you for life. Students
"vetted" in this manner are then treated as "trustworthy" by the oligarchy and
get rapid promotions in the capitalist power structures. Think of it as more than just CIA
recruiting, but also pre-employment screening for the oligarchy. After all, the oligarchy
will want insurance that their tools don't go all Howard Beale on them and use one
of capitalism's enormous soapboxes to blurt out the truth to all of the vegetative mass media
consumers sitting slack-jawed on their couches in front of their Plato's Cave
screens.
They killed millions in southeast Asia. They torture and murder all across Latin America.
They assassinate presidents, both inside and outside the empire. They lie as naturally as
breathing. They kill even when the empire has no need of it. They kill their own loyal tools,
like Nemtsov, if it suits their amusement of the day. They killed highly respected statesmen
on a diplomatic missions. When trying to determine if they are likely to be behind some
horrific incident, you only need to consider if it is feasible and if it serves the empire's
or their own internal needs. Never waste your time trying to ponder if the CIA and their
subsidiaries could stoop so low as to commit the very most horrendous crimes imaginable
because they have already done it again and again. These CIA monsters make ISIS head-choppers
look like choir boys in comparison.
Would the CIA go around a crowded city spraying a horrible virus into the air? If they had
such a virus they would do it for fun. You only need ask if they could get their hands on
such a virus, not if they could be so evil as to use it, because that last is a forgone
conclusion.
And, yes, the CIA can easily get their hands on such a virus.
"Moreover, some of the Russian sources are far-right, Russian nationalists that have
their own axe to grind."
Many American opinions on this issue are from far-right, centrist, or "progressive"
American nationalists who have their own axe to grind and are peddling opinions without
proof.
One of the Russians cited in those articles is Igor Nikulin, a former member of the UN
Commission on Biological and Chemical Weapons. I think he is more credible than most
Americans pushing their views on this topic.
The MK.ru article can be easily translated from Russian into English, using an online
translator of your choice.
Dmitry Orlov also weighs in on the "convenient" Coronavirus, and after reviewing various
factors, suggests that the most likely scenario is an American bioweapon.
And to be frank, it's obvious that America is manipulating the Coronavirus Issue itself
(beyond the health issues involved) as a hybrid war weapon against China.
The America agenda is economic disruption, political destabilization, and infowar
propaganda against one of its major "New Cold War" opponents.
Some nations like China are aware of that other antagonist you describe so well that must
be defended against. The Outlaw US Empire's public's been brainwashed via media shows like
Mission: Impossible and books like Tom Clancy's series starring Jack Ryan to view the
CIA as needed and a force for good. Combatting that are the Jason Bourne books and movies,
but they're not nearly enough. Then there're the many dozens of TV-cop shows through the
years since Dragnet , the Untouchables and The FBI Story depicting
police as a force for good. If TV technology had arrived sooner, there'd be shows in the
South extolling the KKK as a force for good showing real lynching's on TV--the racism present
in Oaters only ended with the rise of the Civil Rights Movement and Ladybird Johnson's use of
a Native American to symbolize her campaign to beautify America (Do ya'll remember that?).
But there's never been any movie about the CIA's Death Squads, although the Terrorist Foreign
Legion's now getting Oscars for the propaganda films extolling their exploits--which I
think's an excellent marker for just how deeply immoral the Outlaw US Empire's
Establishment's become.
Does the above fit into the nihilism The Saker gets into at the end of this
recent essay , or is it closer to the Libertinism of de Sade which justifies its criminal
controlling as the product of a superior over inferiors--Exceptionalists over the
non-exceptional. What lurks in the minds of those US Senators who were the cause behind the
Global Times editorial I linked @8? Then we have Pompeo, who appears to liken himself
as a reborn Nero or Caligula. Or are they merely continuing what the Pilgrims began in
Plymouth--the buried part of that history never taught in schools: the place where American
Death Squads began.
This is the same spiral of cost inflation that we observe in dealing with repair shops and car insurance companies. They form
symbiosis that prosper by mutual inflation of costs.
Notable quotes:
"... The Insurance company must apply 80% of healthcare insurance premiums to actual care. and 20% to Overhead and Profit. Dr. ZDogg states most of the tests were not needed such as a Pan-Viral test when a rapid-strep swab would do. Dr. ZDogg contends this was a virus and the most one should do is the swab the throat or just wait to see what develops . . . this sounds familiar to me as a patient too. ..."
"... The hypothetical? Lets say at the most, what was done should be about $1000 or $800 to actual care and $200 to Overhead and Profit. Multiple this by 26 and see what it amounts to. In Dr. ZDogg's words: "What if we make the pie bigger and 3% of a bigger pie is more money? What if we actually let people overcharge for procedures they don't need? Then all we have to do next year is raise the premiums to cover the actual medical cost, which is now higher, and then we make a higher amount of profit." That was the untoward side effect of the government policy on this, which, by the way, happens with many policies that are top-down. You can't predict what happens and then it happens. " ..."
Going to her PCP located in Manhattan, a woman complains of a sore throat. Forget the
Manhattan part of this as various versions (surprise billing) of this situation are happening
everywhere. The doctor swabbed the throat, sent it off to the lab, ordered some tests, and then
gave her a prescription for antibiotics. She took her meds and went on vacation feeling
better.
The tests came back negative. She later received a bill for ~$26,000.
The lab was out of network which usually results with insurance only paying a portion of the
bill and the patient the balance unless the insurance negotiates a lesser charge (hospital 3rd
party employees) which they will pay. This is another version of Surprise Billing, not in a
hospital setting, which we have heard so much about, and the patient gets screwed with the
balance of the Surprise Billing.
More Information
The lab was out of network but it was a part of the employer the PCP worked for also.
Usually doctors use the hospital they are affiliated with to run tests or do lab work which are
also in network (today). I suspect more hospitals will relegate lab work to 3rd parties to cut
costs and improve profits.
There was a time when I had catastrophic insurance which only paid 50% of costs. I had
pneumonia and really could not afford to go to my PCP at $150 (then) as I was out of work. My
PCP was not sympathetic and wrote me script to take to the hospital for imaging and another
test. I called the U 0f M hospital and talked to a clerk there about cost. He finally told me
to go to Quest (outside lab) and they would be half the cost in doing imaging, etc. U of M has
some major Overhead to pay for today.
By the way, Blue Cross Blue Shield paid almost all of the bill for this lady with the sore
throat.
Even More Information and a Hypothetical
The Insurance company must apply 80% of healthcare insurance premiums to actual care.
and 20% to Overhead and Profit. Dr. ZDogg states most of the tests were not needed such as a
Pan-Viral test when a rapid-strep swab would do. Dr. ZDogg contends this was a virus and the
most one should do is the swab the throat or just wait to see what develops . . . this sounds
familiar to me as a patient too.
The hypothetical? Lets say at the most, what was done should be about $1000 or $800 to
actual care and $200 to Overhead and Profit. Multiple this by 26 and see what it amounts to. In
Dr. ZDogg's words: "What if we make the pie bigger and 3% of a bigger pie is more money? What
if we actually let people overcharge for procedures they don't need? Then all we have to do
next year is raise the premiums to cover the actual medical cost, which is now higher, and then
we make a higher amount of profit." That was the untoward side effect of the government policy
on this, which, by the way, happens with many policies that are top-down. You can't predict
what happens and then it happens. "
I would like to think doctors, hospitals, and healthcare insurance companies are not prone
to this. Yet we have record of numerous surprise billing instances by hospitals, this one is an
example of one by a doctor. Medicare Advantage plans are over billing CMS for treatments
running totals up to $10 billion per year. And what about Commercial Healthcare Insurance? I
have not heard of insurance pushing back on over charges. Usually, they reject a bill or a
portion of it and the patient pays the balance.
And what Happens as a Result?
Again Dr. ZDogg: "Guess what's going to happen to her insurance premiums next year? They're
going to go up by 10%, 15%, 20 percent. And what will happen at employers around the country
who are paying most of the bill? They're going to drop or keep wages flat (happening today).
Healthcare becomes a financial albatross with collusion between healthcare providers charging a
bunch of money and insurance companies paying it, hospitals overbuilding, overcharging, and
doing stuff we don't even need. The results of these money games are a minority of people
getting rich and everybody else's wages staying stagnant. 1 in 5 Americans have collection
agencies coming after them for medical bills that are inflated and unnecessary.
Dr. ZDogg recommended exposure to sunlight might cure the problem.
The patient; "I made it very clear [to the doctor's office] that I was unhappy about it."
And told them I would report the doctor to New York state's Office of Professional Medical
Conduct. She also reached out to "Bill of the Month," a joint project of NPR and Kaiser Health
News. After a reporter started asking questions about the bill, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of
Minnesota stopped payment on the check it issued and is now investigating.
The bottom line to this is, it should have never got this far or even happen.
Recently it was disclosed Michigan No Fault Accident Coverage was paying an ~289% of
Medicare rates to hospitals and clinics to care for patient injuries suffered from automobile
accidents. No Fault coverage will die in a few years as the new legislation sponsored by
Quicken Loans Dan Gilbert and Michigan Repubs have allowed people to opt out or take lesser
coverage which will now pay hospitals and clinics 220% of Medicare rates. No Fault would not
disclose what it was paying caregivers. Another surprise which should have never happened . .
.
This story is from December 2019 and was in NPR
For Her Head Cold , Insurer Coughed Up $25,865, NPR, Richard Harris.
The solution is to have one network and a single payer. Simple.
run75441 , February 14, 2020 7:49 pm
Chris:
You remind of someone else who insists it is that simple. It is not unless you have
60% of Congress inline. And if you do make the change, look forward to much of the
Senate and the House being replaced as the population likes their Employer sponsored
commercial healthcare insurance in spite of being screwed over by commercial
healthcare, healthcare, and the pols who kiss the industries butt. What you and others
are insisting on as being so simple is not so simple to enact.
davebarnes , February 14, 2020 1:39 pm
I have Kaiser Medicare Advantage and am happy. Colon cancer fix cost me $2500 for surgery + chemo. Perianal abscess cost me $300. Three surgeries.
EMichael , February 14, 2020 2:49 pm
Chris,
The solution is indeed simple. Getting to the solution is a huge task.
Meanwhile, It would be very simple legislation to stop this criminal treatment by providers.
Person has insurance and is treated by someone out of network without giving specific orders to
go out of network, is only liable for the in network charges.
Hard to vote against that, but we all know how many will, and who they are.
Oops. b's article of Feb 8 about how the coronavirus is under control was way off base.
Zerohedge reports that Hubei Province has come clean and reported a huge increase in
infections using the previous statistical gathering rules. Hopefully it will be less severe
than the 1918 flu pandemic that caused the death of TENS OF MILLIONS.
Do not ever trust a government to communicate truthful information to you if they have
something to gain by lying. It doesn't matter if it is your home country or an adversary
country - they all lie when it is to their advantage. Truth is a very elusive commodity
today.
Below are quotes from two different postings at Xinhuanet that I think are related
"
WUHAN, Feb. 13 (Xinhua) -- China's Hubei Province, center of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
outbreak, reported 14,840 new confirmed cases and 242 new deaths on Wednesday, the highest
daily increases so far, local health authorities said Thursday.
The Hubei Provincial Health Commission said the number of new cases included 13,332
clinically diagnosed cases, which have been seen as confirmed cases from Thursday.
It brought the total confirmed cases in the hard-hit province to 48,206. The province had
a total of 1,310 deaths as of Wednesday.
Clinically diagnosed cases are unique to Hubei statistically. The inclusion of those cases
drives the surge in the number of new confirmed cases.
.........
"
"
BEIJING, Feb. 13 (Xinhua) -- Ying Yong has been appointed secretary of the Hubei Provincial
Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), replacing Jiang Chaoliang, according to a
decision by the CPC Central Committee.
"
Interviewee: Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of MRC GIDA, J-IDEA, School of Public
Health
Interviewer and Associate Producer: Sabine van Elsland, MRC GIDA, J-IDEA, School of Public
Health
Infectious disease scientist Neil Ferguson estimates coronavirus could be infecting 50,000
people a day. For over a week, China has consistently reported about 3,000 new infections per
day. The number has stayed suspiciously constant over the last ten days. A steady rate of
3,000 diagnoses per day points to the upper limit of detection kits that are available to the
health workers.
China reportedly has quarantined hundreds of millions of people at this point. Not a
response you would expect for something that is innocuous.
"China reportedly has quarantined hundreds of millions of people at this point. Not a
response you would expect for something that is innocuous."
It's weird how many people here hold the schizoid position that, on one hand the epidemic
is mild and nothing to panic about, but at the same time China's extreme measures have
comprised an heroic campaign against an horrific danger.
Of course if the virus is not a great threat then China's actions themselves would
constitute a form of panic, if not something more sinister. But if it is such a threat that
the big lockdown is warranted, then whence comes the "it's not a big deal" rhetoric?
Sounds to me like these people are on the verge of panic themselves and are trying to calm
themselves down, in no matter how incoherent a fashion.
(Not all that different from those who politically say or imply the US is in great
existential crisis yet who assure themselves and everyone else that the sufficient, even
necessary solution can be found within the Democratic Party.)
China reportedly has quarantined hundreds of millions of people at this point. Not a
response you would expect for something that is innocuous.
Thank you for that observation and if the coronavirus is anything like constructed from a mix
of elements from other forms (deliberately or naturally) then it IS a serious threat. It
appears that it is infectious BEFORE a person shows symptoms and so the threat is magnified
immensely unless it is easily attenuated in open air. That is not likely from what I have
read.
China has responded rationally and rapidly to date. Its response will certainly generate
ill feeling and antagonism but people behave irrationally and are driven by self interest
beyond the caring for the community when faced with these lethal unseen predators.
If/when this level of quarantine were to break out in the hysterical USA, could you
imagine the response? The freedom brigades would be barricading streets, commandeering trains
to escape and break quarantine. Hysterics like Rachel Maddow would weeping inanities on MSNBC
every night. Chris Mathews would crapping his pants about it being a public execution virus
... russia russia russia.....
Faced with the sudden CODIV-19 outbreak, problems such as sloppiness and poor management of
work have been exposed among Wuhan and Hubei authorities, reflecting severe loopholes in
local governance. The appointment of new officials will not only enhance prevention and
control measures against the outbreak but also aim to highlight the urgency of improving
crisis-handling capability among officials, analysts said.
The new appointed official was responsible for containing the epidemic to Shanghai:
In his effort in combating the virus in Shanghai, Ying, also head of Shanghai's leading
group for virus containment, emphasized grass-roots level units' strength in fighting the
battle. He also conducted detailed and thorough discussion with people working in
residential communities, hearing their opinions concerning the containment work.
He also underlined the role that science plays in this battle. Ying suggested Shanghai
use its edge as a "scientific highland" to support the prevention and control of the virus.
Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, Ying suggested scientific achievements should race
against time, against virus, to gain initiative of fighting the coronavirus.
An anonymous Shanghai-based expert praised Shanghai's virus containment work. He told
the Global Times that Shanghai, home to millions of migrant workers, could be the next
epidemic center for the coronavirus.
However, with effective and scientific measures, which do not disturb people's normal
life, Shanghai has managed to keep the infection at a moderate level compared with other
provinces and municipalities. The city reported 311 confirmed cases of the CODIV-19
infection.
This is very far from the dictatorial and brutal scenario the western MSM is describing.
To fight an epidemic from spreading without disrupting the economy, you need more - not less
- democracy. And that's what the CCP is doing.
Also pay attention to the emphasis the new official gives to science as opposed to
religion (i.e. superstition). This is not only a teaching moment for the Chinese people, but
also an indirect jibe at Chinese paganism. The COVID-19 will be defeated with science (i.e.
communism), not with religion (i.e. Chines paganism, or even Christianism or Islamism,
depending on the province you go in China).
The Guardian described this reshuffling as a "purge". It continues to descend more and
more to a pro-capitalist (liberal) pamphlet.
--//--
@ Posted by: Russ | Feb 13 2020 7:16 utc | 129
What is most amazing is how many commenters here completely ignore Chinese media.
Xi Jinping literally made a speech where he stated the COVID-19 was a grave danger and
crisis, that the battle against the virus would be very difficult, but that he had confidence
the Chinese people was capable of fighting it off.
Before his speech, many editorials and other articles were published in the Chinese
official and extraofficial media, all of them making extremely clear the crisis was grave,
and that in no way the virus was a non-issue. It also highlighted the failures of the Chinese
local governance and healthcare system, as well as its deficiencies in R&D in the
medicine area. The Chinese media never downplayed the COVID-19 and its shortcomings.
It is only in the world of the Western MSM that the CCP is hiding the crisis from its own
people, is falsifying the number of infected and dead, is brutally crushing a rebellion for
free speech in Wuhan etc. etc.
The story of the millions of bodies cremated in Wuhan is even more bizarre, since it makes
it clear commenters here do not research on Chinese media. There are inumerous videos on
TikTok (Chinese Instagram) of people living in Wuhan documenting how their lives are going
amid the quarantine. There's no rebellion there; people are compreensive of the graveness of
the situation, and understand it is a necessary evil. They are not cut off from the internet
or any other kind of media. Sure, the situation is shitty, and many non-infected people in
Wuhan are pissed off with the situation (as is in the nature of any human being) - but that's
far from being a rebellion to topple the CCP.
Wuhan was the birthplace of Chinese communism. In the 1920s, it was the first attempt to
install a socialist republic in practice. It was brutally crushed by the Han supremacist
forces of Chiang Kaishek - who personally ordered the massacre of all the communists there
once he entered the city believed to be peacefully. It would take another 20 years for
communism to recover from that episode. The people of Wuhan know their history, and they know
they can trust the CCP.
Of course the number of infected is rising - the Japanese cruise ship is moored since
February 3rd!
The test kits come out with the results in 24 hours. Why is the damn ship isolated for ten
days and counting?
The article states the passengers are kept in their own cabins, with masks. How is the
Japanese government so shure this will keep the non-infected from being infected, if rumors
from the media claim it can be transmitted even from contact with a piece of metal? Why isn't
the westerm MSM publicly denouncing this potential death trap set up by the Japanese
government?
The article also states that the people who are already tested negative are being freed
from the ship. That means the Japanese simply don't have the means, that is, the human and
material resources, to test all the passengers at once (that is, in 24 hours). A declaration
by health minister Katsunobu Kato implies they can only test 200 people simutaneously. Why
isn't the Japanese people angry with such inneficiency? Why isn't such government
inneficiency not being publicly denounced by the western MSM?
Japanese ineptitude will cost dozens of lives in that ship.
Japanese ineptitude will cost dozens of lives in that ship. by: vk @ 150
I can't see why anyone would be released until the entire ship tests free for at least 14
days of the virus.. If the whole damn ship comes down with the disease, it provides the
masses needed to study the disease and to develop antibodies. The ship is a laboratory
crucible of the kind that cannot be assembled anywhere else.. There may be a few deaths, but
not likely, more than will occur by releasing those falsely testing negative into the whole
world, only to have them distribute the disease and incubate it in places it might not
otherwise reach.
Mass General Hospital researchers identify new "universal" target for antiviral
treatment
Key Takeaways
Mass General researchers have uncovered a novel potential antiviral drug target that could
lead to treatments protecting against a host of infectious diseases – creating a
universal treatment
Their work suggests that the protein Argonaute 4 (AGO4) is an "Achilles heel" for
viruses.
Researchers suggest that boosting levels of AGO4 could shore up the immune system to protect
against multiple viruses
https://www.massgeneral.org/news/press-release/Mass-general-hospital-researchers-identify-new-universal-target-for-antiviral-treatment
I woke up today and saw a 15000 increase of cases in Hubei province. I actually feel happy
to see this update, because it is a result of more transparent reporting, which added many
overlooked cases in Wuhan city. This number increase has pushed Hubei's province's case number
account to over 81% of all cases. The other parts of China have seen steady decrease in case
growth. Guangzhou, a heavily affected city only had 4 new cases over the past day. It is an
encouraging sign, and shows China has managed the situation except for Wuhan. I have relatives
near Wuhan, and their life besides been grounded at home, isn't very bad. They also confirmed
with that Wuhan is in a horrible position still.
My wife and I live in Guangzhou, in the southern Canton province where at this very moment
has nearly 1000 cases confirmed. We just travelled to and came back from my in-laws' home in
Jiangxi, where it is a little closer to Wuhan, but less affected by the outbreak.
The entire country is literally on quarantine. This is what we experienced during our drive
back to Guangzhou. When entering the provincial border, emergency crew checked every single
passenger's temperature.
Nearly everything on the street is closed in every city. I have basically stayed home for
two weeks now, except for necessary grocery run. Below are my personal understandings developed
during this viral outbreak:
Panic is the worst enemy. Though many are saying that the situation is worse than
govt reports, which I agree, I hope people can have more faith in the official numbers and
reports. The govt is already taking very drastic measures, and I understand well why they
only report optimistic news. What else can they do? Tell 1.4 billion people that the country
is doomed? Blame the Wuhan local govt for their inefficiency in handling the initial
outbreak, but stand with the Chinese government for it is pulling incredible work at this
moment.
The disease is highly contagious. Short unprotected exposure to carriers of the
virus can lead to infection . However, with medical treatment, the fatality rate is VERY LOW.
A majority of the cases confirmed are in Hubei province, the epicentre. Outside of that
province, out of over 8000 confirmed cases, only 16 people have died, mostly elderly and with
prior medical complications. This is a very low fatality rate. Guangzhou has nearly 300
confirmed cases, but put in mind this is a city of roughly 10 million people.
Wuhan is in hell now. Lack of medical resources and the spread of virus in highly
populated urban area has lead to a fatality rate 30 times higher than other parts of China.
Many patients are advised to stay home, without timely medical help. Some eventually go into
critical condition and even die before even getting confirmed. Sad.
This point is not confirmed, but I feel that except for Hubei province, the outbreak
is getting more and more contained. In Guangdong and Zhejiang, both have reported nearly
1000 confirmed cases, NO DEATH is reported. The spread is mainly developing fast in the
epicentre, which is now effectively sealed off.
I notice that discrimination is growing at all levels. Globally, some media
outposts are labeling the virus as China virus (include my home media in BC, Canada), linking
viral outbreak with Chinese or Asian ethnicity. Regionally, Wuhan and Hubei province are
being labeled as the source of the contagion I suppose this is our human nature, the dark
part of it.
My feelings:
This outbreak made my 1st tier city middle class bubble burst. For a long time, I have lived
in relative privilege.
The first tier Chinese cities have provided so much that made me feel
like living in a futuristic and developed country.
This outbreak slaps me hard, and it woke me
up. In many areas China is still poor and decades behind the developed world. There is much to
be done, and as someone working in education, I have a good field to start with.
Sitting in my apartment in the centre of Guangzhou, the world outside is so quiet. The
country has slowed down, but now it is a tranquil moment for me to think about life and maybe
for this country to reflect on itself too.
"... the predominant demographic of nCOV deaths so far are 60+ year old men with severe health problems; I'd not be surprised that these types of people don't travel much, if at all. ..."
This is a classic case of panic-mongering and hysteria-inducing journalism.
Every test has its percentage of false negatives. Of course there are patients infected with the new coronavirus that were
dismissed by the hospitals. But this is a calculated risk, with its given margin of error.
If we were to publish in the MSM the number of deaths due to misdiagnosed cancer in the First World, there would be mass hysteria
and a spike in demand for cancer screening. That doesn't happen because the western MSM is not interested in causing chaos in
their home court.
Here's an interesting point about nCOV which hasn't been talked about much: fecal-oral transmission.
Some of the news articles note that bodies are being treated as contagious, reinforcing this author's point about there being
multiple ways nCOV can be transmitted:
Wim
Rost talking about nCOV at WuWT
No idea if his view is correct or supported: he's saying that nCOV infection via fecal-oral is less dangerous because the victim
has more time to build up defenses vs. infection via aerial transmission directly into the lungs.
He does have a good precedent/point about the ability of nCOV to transfer from digestive system to rest of the body, if true:
bubonic plague is transmitted by fleas on rats - going from bloodstream to rest of body, but it got really bad when the bacterium
got into the lungs. At that point, transmissibility became aerial.
I'm not 100% convinced of the digestive system route though. Shaking hands = virus to other people, but it is just as likely the
transmission is occurring when these people touch their eyes or nose as because they eat food without washing their hands first.
The conclusion is also not strong concerning deaths outside of China: the predominant demographic of nCOV deaths so far are 60+
year old men with severe health problems; I'd not be surprised that these types of people don't travel much, if at all.
Not to mention that it has been only the US who is using its shameful schadenfreude to try to profit from the outbreak of the
Coronavirus epidemic, debunking some commenters´ here theory on that it is the "West" who is using this on the grounds of information
warfare.
No European country has made such thing, as the statements from the Chinese authorities have clearly showed, calling only on the
US to stop using this infection as informational weapon.
More leaders from foreign countries and heads of international organizations have recently expressed their support for the
battle of #China against the outbreak of the new #coronavirus and praised China's measures to prevent and control the epidemic.
"We all live in a global village and we must fight together against disasters." Leaders of foreign political parties have expressed
their support for #China's efforts in the battle against the outbreak of the new #coronavirus in messages addressed to the
CCP.
On how this has been clearly used by the US against China, in spite of the recent and missleading Twitts and phone calls by the
Donald ( surely provoked by the absolute isolation amongst the international community on his and his admnistration use of this
event for profit ):
"... "a correct comparison is not SARS or Mers but a severe cold. Basically this is a severe form of the cold." ..."
"... However, a breakdown of the figures in cities in Hubei paints a different picture. In Wuhan, the center of the outbreak with a population of 11 million, the fatality rate was 4.09% with 10,117 people infected and 414 deaths. In Huanggang, the second-largest city in Hubei, with a population of 6.29 million, the fatality rate was 1.6% with 29 people out of 1,807 infected patients having died. ..."
"... On January 24, Yuen Kwok-yung , chair of Infectious Diseases at the University of Hong Kong's Department of Microbiology, and his team wrote in an article published in The Lancet, one of the world's leading medical journals, that the Wuhan coronavirus could be more infectious than SARS as its attack rate was 83%, based on the fact that six out of seven people in a Shenzhen family were infected. ..."
"... the coronavirus could survive on a stainless steel surface for 36 hours, but sunlight could shorten its half-life from 13-20 minutes in the dark to just to 2.5 minutes. ..."
"... Fukuda, a former special representative for antimicrobial resistance for the Director-General of the World Health Organization, said it was too early to predict that the Wuhan virus would be contained in April and May, as it has proved contagious in tropical places such as Singapore and Bangkok. ..."
No worse than a 'bad cold' say some experts, but others fear it could kill 14,000 people in Hong
Kong alone
Pathologists, microbiologists and public health experts from the University of Hong Kong have
expressed different views about the lethality of the Wuhan coronavirus in a bid to help governments
shape their strategies against the epidemic.
Based on different scientific evidence and
viewpoints, some said the mortality or fatality rate, which indicates the lethality of the Wuhan
coronavirus could be as low as 0.6% and that it may go down further if more minor cases are
recorded.
Others said even if the mortality rate was between 1-2%, compared with 7% of the severe acute
respiratory syndrome (SARS), the Wuhan virus could kill tens of thousands of people due to it being
highly contagious.
The fatality rate of the Wuhan disease in
mainland China was between 2.2% and 2.4% but the percentage outside mainland China was 0.6%, given
that only two people had died from 321 confirmed cases,
John Nicholls
, a Clinical Professor in Pathology at the University of Hong Kong, told Asia
Times in an email.
"Whether this difference reflects a delay in disease progression, different criteria in
reporting or other treatment factors requires further investigation, but whichever figure you
choose, there is certainly a reduced mortality compared with Sars or Middle East Respiratory
Syndrome (Mers)," Nicholls said.
In an unpublished transcript from a February 6
conference call with personnel at Hong Kong's CLSA investment group
, which has been widely
circulated on the internet, Prof Nicholls is quoted as saying that "a correct comparison is not SARS or Mers but a severe cold. Basically this is a severe form of the cold."
(Note: Asia Times takes no responsibility for the accuracy of the transcript).
According to China's National Health Commission, the number of people infected with the Wuhan
coronavirus
amounted
to 31,774 as of Friday, with the death toll at 722. The fatality rate, or the ratio of
the number of deaths to infections, is 2.27%. The figure has remained at around 2.2% since late
January.
As of Wednesday, the number of infections in Hubei province totalled 19,665, 70% of the total
number on the mainland. The death toll in the central China province amounted to 549 – about 97.5%
of all deaths reported in the country to date. The fatality rate in the province was 2.79%.
However, a
breakdown
of the figures in cities in Hubei paints a different picture. In Wuhan, the center of
the outbreak with a population of 11 million, the fatality rate was 4.09% with 10,117 people
infected and 414 deaths. In Huanggang, the second-largest city in Hubei, with a population of 6.29
million, the fatality rate was 1.6% with 29 people out of 1,807 infected patients having died.
In Tianmen, with a population of 1.73 million, the percentage reached 7.25% as 10 people out of
138 patients died. In Ezhou, with a population of 1.08 million, the percentage was 4.26% as 18 out
of 423 people who had the disease died.
It would be useful to track whether there was a significant difference in mortality and
morbidity within the major outbreak cities in mainland China, Nicholls said, as that may give an
indication on how severe the Wuhan disease is.
It was important not to look at the mortality rate in Wuhan solely but also the figures outside
Wuhan, as Hubei province was overwhelmed by a lot of milder cases because people were not admitted
to hospital, Nicholls is quoted as
saying
in
the transcript above. "It's important not [only] to look at the mortality rate in Wuhan but to look
at the mortality rate in Shanghai or Shenzhen" where it was much less deadly, he said.
Meanwhile, some other scientists
warned
that it could be too early to conclude the fatality rate because "it takes time to die
from the coronavirus."
Epidemic in Hong Kong
As of 8pm on Friday, the number of infections in Hong Kong was 26. One person died from the
disease on February 4. The fatality rate was 3.8% but based on very small numbers.
On January 24,
Yuen Kwok-yung
, chair of Infectious Diseases at the University of Hong Kong's Department of
Microbiology, and his team wrote in an
article
published in The Lancet, one of the world's leading medical journals, that the Wuhan
coronavirus could be more infectious than SARS as its attack rate was 83%, based on the fact that
six out of seven people in a Shenzhen family were infected.
The attack rate for SARS virus ranged from 10.3% to 60%, according to a
previous
research study.
On February 1, Yuen said in a radio program that if the Hong Kong government did not take any
measures, the number of people infected with the Wuhan disease could reach 1.4 million people –
about 20% of the city's population.
He said 14,000 people could be killed by the virus in Hong Kong if an estimated fatality rate of
1%, instead of the current 2%, was used for calculation.
In an
article
published by Stand News on Friday, a Hong Kong-based columnist explained how Yuen made
the estimation.
Yuen cited data from Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection that about 17.6 to 25.4% of
patients with flu symptoms were diagnosed with seasonal influenza in emergency rooms at peak flu
season, it said. He also used the reported fatality rate of 2% on the mainland – but halved it to
reduce public panic.
The article said 2,618 out of 1.4 million people would die if the mortality rate of flu-related
diseases (0.187%) between 2009 and 2016 in Hong Kong was used instead. And 14 people would die if
the global mortality rate of the 2009 H1N1 or swine influenza (0.001 to 0.007%) was used.
In fact, 356 deaths were
recorded
in Hong Kong during the influenza season between December 30, 2018 and April 6, 2019,
according to the Centre for Health Protection.
Sunlight, temperature and humidity
Apart from the fatality rate, the thermal tolerance – the temperature range at which the Wuhan
virus can survive – was also another hot debate topic among scientists.
There were articles published on temperature and humidity linked to coronaviruses and SARS, from
an outbreak of the latter disease in 2003, Nicholls told Asia Times.
He told
CNN
on Thursday that the Wuhan virus would be like SARS – as "the world is going to get
basically a very bad cold for about five months."
He also said elsewhere that the coronavirus could survive on a stainless steel surface for 36
hours, but sunlight could shorten its half-life from 13-20 minutes in the dark to just to 2.5
minutes.
The virus could remain intact at 4-10° Celsius for a longer period of time, he said, so
Australia and the southern hemisphere would not see any great infections, as they are now in the
middle of summer. And, the virus did not like high humidity.
But,
Keiji Fukuda
, director and Clinical Professor at the University of Hong Kong's Division of
Community Medicine and Public Health Practice, said in an interview with
Sing Tao Daily
on Friday the Wuhan disease may not necessarily disappear in summer.
Fukuda, a former special representative for antimicrobial resistance for the Director-General of
the World Health Organization, said it was too early to predict that the Wuhan virus would be
contained in April and May, as it has proved contagious in tropical places such as Singapore and
Bangkok.
The value of that observation is at least questionable as most cases of infection in Thailand
and Singapore were brought in by Chinese travellers, with no evidence of significant community
transmission initially.
The novel Coronavirus (nCoV19) epidemic is a receding danger but its effects will stay
with us for some time. Here is an update on the current situation.
In general, with the increase in isolation and treatment work, the number of new suspected
cases nationwide has decreased, and the number of new confirmed cases outside Hubei has
fallen for 4 consecutive days . The situation of the new coronavirus epidemic situation may
have improved. On the 7th, the first confirmed case appeared in only one city, and the
number of newly cured cases exceeded the number of new deaths for 9 consecutive days,
indicating that the epidemic was under control.
The graphic below shows the newly suspected cases per day (yellow) and the number of newly
confirmed cases per day (red).
Newly suspected cases get tested and it takes about a day until they are 'converted' to
confirmed cases or removed from the count. It makes therefore sense to combine those numbers
and to show a total of new cases per day.
Posted by b at
17:18 UTC |
Comments (58) thanks for this b.... your quote "The Chinese authorities will soon have to
balance public safety with the necessity of economic activities. They are likely to stay
cautious. They will want to make sure that the epidemic is under total control before
allowing a return to normal life." it reminds me of how messed up the world is where economic
activities are always interfering with our priorities... i was just saying this on the boeing
thread - when money is an important priority - people make wrong decisions..
China's economy is severely effected by the epidemic.
China wisely decided to take extraordinary measures at an early stage. If they hadn't done
so, the impact on the people and the economy would've ultimately been much much greater.
"This will likely speed up the 'decoupling' from China which the U.S. under Trump promotes."
The whole talking-point about 'decoupling' borders on fantasy. China is the supply-chain
capital of the world; while US manufacturing has been gutted and will not return without
ginormous initiative for industrial planning by the US govt, which is highly unlikely given
the current political ideology.
The only meaningful area we can speak of 'decoupling' is in military manufacturing, such
as US attempts to sever dual-use drones purchases from Chinese DJI; and to move
semi-conductor production back to the US, for example by trying to pressure TSMC to re-locate
to the US. The purpose of such military decoupling is to minimize disruption in the case of a
US-China hot war.
In the larger economic picture, there is no meaningful way to de-couple from China, for
the US or any major economic power such as Germany for that matter, not just because China
manufactures so much but also because it is the biggest purchaser of goods and services;
indeed is the largest trading partner for most countries in the world.
Undoubtedly JR, but I can't help but notice how the extraordinary measures taken by China
were described as both "draconian" and "late" at the same time.
China is not facing a deadly outbreak of a corona virus alone, the world is facing an also
deadly outbreak of rumour induced stupidity the viral cause being lead by "social"
networks.
we are wading through Incredible hyper-reporting. One news site in Olso, Norway has a
"professor" reporting 50,000 infections per day. Bet he does not read, speak Mandarin or
Cantonese.
We are seeing disruptions in supply chain - the just-in-time delivery on which global
economy relies will be more pronounced in another month. [household goods to chemical,
medical products] A walk down the isle or factory floor reads "Product of China" : "Made in
China"
All that stuff reminds me so much of the "climate change" (we're guilty off of course) thing.
The target here was the chinese, I feel chinese these days.
"Japan also said on Saturday that one of its citizens had died in a Wuhan hospital from a
suspected case of the coronavirus. But the Japanese Foreign Ministry said that based on
information it received from the Chinese authorities, it could not confirm whether the man,
who was in his 60s, had been infected with the new virus. The ministry called the cause of
death viral pneumonia."
Nope cornonavirus cases are going down, but "viral pneumonia" cases are through the
roof..s/
Do you rely on the BLS - Bureau of Labor Statistics?
droje @10;
Professor N.Ferguson, Imperial College of London, went on record February 3rd stating
that the real rate of infection is now 50,000/day.
did you read his was a computer modelling? Garbage in; garbage out. The guy is guessing
and fear mongering.
"My best guess now is" said he.
"My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now," Neil Ferguson, a public health
expert at Imperial College in London who's been estimating the disease's spread for the
World Health Organization, told the Guardian. He thinks the actual number could be anywhere
between 30,000 and 200,000. [.]
He thinks! That is quite a range? But let's run with the higher number.
Garbage in, garbage out.
there was a time when westerners thought China was all rice paddies and bowl hats. No
factories, no technology, no industries. 1992.
Fast Forward China is now our warehouse.
China is at the forefront of:
medical research: Check the link @ 6
technology: supercomputers 5 G left west trailing to catch up.
"Guangzhou, the capital of China's southwestern Guangdong Province and the country's fifth
largest city with nearly 15 million residents, has just joined the ranks of cities imposing a
mandatory lockdown on all citizens, effectively trapping residents inside their homes, with
only limited permission to venture into the outside world to buy essential supplies.
The decision means 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China's
most-strict level of lockdown as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the
virus has already spread to more than 2 dozen countries."
400 million quarantined, but yeah, nothing to see Occupatio @ 15:
I looked up Dr N Ferguson whom Dorje refers to @ 10 and discovered at the RMS blog @
www.rms.com that Dr Neil Ferguson obtained his PhD in theoretical physics at Oxford
University and specialises in infectious disease modelling using sparse observational data at
Imperial College in London under WHO auspices.
Lancet article "Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread
of the 2019-nCoV outbreak..." supports your position. Respected medical journal maintaining a
series of resource articles on nCoV. Also see Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of
99 cases of nCoV. Note that recently confirmed as pandemic by WHO.
Anecdotal reporting indicates that Dr. Fauci, US virologist with CDC is currently in China,
WHO is sending in teams. Would anticipate perhaps better epidemiological info in upcoming
weeks, with better detailed methodology, particularly as regards missing data which in this
situation is crucial.
I see no reason to doubt the Chinese government numbers as it is in THEIR best interest to
get this thing under control. They have no way to benefit from hiding any higher numbers. It
would not work as the epidemic would continue to spread. How would China's government profit
from that?
People in Wuhan have been left to die at home. The government went around dragging
people into the quarantine camps where, so far, their is no medical care let alone proper
sanitation. They don't have enough testing, supplies, masks, etc.
In fact there are police and others working door to door to take peoples' temperature.
Those who have significant symptoms will have to see a doctor and may get quarantined. Those
places where that happens are large sports or conference centers which have sanitations for
mass events. Medical personal has been deployed and is available where needed.
Test kits are now available. The WHO alone distributed at least a quarter million. China
produces them en mass. There might be still be a lack in qualified laboratory personal and
laboratory space.
It took some time to recognize the danger of this outbreak. The local doctors (see
recommended piece) were pretty fast in getting it. It took some time for that to filter
upward through the bureaucracy. China is country of 1.4 billion people. A sudden local
increase of pneumonia death of some 20 or 50 people takes time to be recognized at the top
level.
After that happened China did all the right things. Identified the virus, alarmed the global
public, isolated the epidemic, moved all possible resources to the response.
The H1N1 broke out in the U.S. and Mexico in April 2009. It took President Obama until
October 2009 to declare it a national emergency. By that time it had already spread worldwide
and in the end killed some 17,000 people. What do you think would have happened if nCoV19
would have emerged in the U.S.?
All this talk of 50000 new cases per day is nonsense.
The numbers for Hong Kong and Macao are compiled independently from the Chinese government.
These figures are currently 26 for HK and 10 for Macao.
These figures are completely in line with the official Chinese figues on a province by
province basis, where Guangdong, for example, now has 1095 infections according to official
figures.
All of These exaggerated numbers are either hysteria, clickbait or propaganda.
Jackrabbit , Feb 8
2020 21:04 utc |
30Michael , Feb 8 2020 21:09 utc |
31
Thanks b! Asia Times has an article with some interesting facts on fatality rates, virus
longevity in different environment (it likes cold temps), etc. Their bottom line was it was
like a severe cold, but lasted longer.
If you go over to www.cdc.gov, you will see that over a 4-month period from 1 October 2019
to 1 February 2020, at least 22 million Americans caught influenza and at least 12,000 have
died from it.That works out to 3,000 deaths per month. And these are conservative
estimates.
That sure puts the Wuhan-origin coronavirus infection scare into some perspective.
This c-virus itself is a nothing-burger then? (It would still be good to hear from that
research scientist and that lab in Wuhan though. What were they up to? What are they
researching and was there an "accident"?)
Does the media hysteria, travel bans and the like fulfill a bigger purpose? It all does
make for diversion of attention from other developments. And, of course, we have yet to
experience the secondary consequences and fall out.
Robert @27 and Dorje The Indomitable can have their opinions, yet B's empirical analysis
makes far more sense than the statements they have posted. Why indeed would the Chinese gov't
lie about the numbers of infections if the infection rates were as high as R and D have
claimed? Such high numbers would quickly expose the lie, and the Chinese gov't would then be
completely discredited, and hence the reason to lie in this case is vastly reduced, as our
host has pointed out.
As for Prof Ferguson's epidemiological model: I have an MSc degree in Mathematics, and
I've worked with plenty of epidemiologists, trying to implement their often vague ideas into
valid mathematical models. Such models can only be back-validated (and climate models suffer
from the same problem), meaning their various parameters and so-called "fudge factors" (that
is really the term!) must be adjusted so that their predictions agree with data from past
epidemics. Since every epidemic is different from every other in often quite subtle ways,
epidemiologists "specialise" in fudging a model's parameters (hence the term "fudge factor")
so that the model now agrees with historical data. Yet why would current epidemics always
behave like past epidemics? No epidemiologist I have asked was ever able to answer this
question with the hard empirical reasoning that is science's only guarantee, and hence the
predictions are really not all that trustworthy.
Model this: as of today there were 343 2019-nCoV cases reported OUTSIDE China. There is
exactly ONE death recorded OUTSIDE China in the Phillipines, or a fatality rate of .3%.
Now, I'm including HK as part of China, but if you disagree then there are exactly TWO
fatal cases, or a rate of .6%. Hardly apocalyptic.
Considering that U.S. patients were identified over two weeks ago, according to hysterical
nutcases we should be seeing an explosion of new patients from cross-infection. Where are
they?
Dorje, Robert, et al
Your point of view is noted.
It is 9 February. Let's review on 1st April and see how things are then.
If there is pandemic, then everyone will need to apologise to you for not listening.
If the epidemic has been controlled and the infection rate has dropped to low levels, then I
guess you'll admit that you got it wrong.
Sound fair?
Siotu -perhaps part of a long-term effort to "other" and vilify the Chinese, in the
eventuality of a hot war where you will be required to die fighting them.
I see no reason to doubt the Chinese government numbers as it is in THEIR best interest to
get this thing under control. They have no way to benefit from hiding any higher numbers. It
would not work as the epidemic would continue to spread. How would China's government profit
from that?
That's a non sequitur.
It fails to demonstrate that the government needs to tell the true numbers. It only
demonstrates the obvious: govt needs to know the correct numbers in order to be able to act
accordingly and effectively.
Furthermore, no govt action would work if there is panic or social trouble. For that
reason, lying on the numbers may be a necessary tool for the victory against the
epidemic.
On the other side I don't believe the Tencent numbers. Do somebody knows the source of
that story? From my quick and dirty search, it looks like it was a Taiwanese newspaper which
is regularly smearing China.
On the other side of the other side, I give some credit to the Lancet article. Some
commentators went away with it by saying: "It's simulation, and you know that garbage in -
garbage out ". Did he notice there was no garbage in the input data? They were 1) numbers of
cases outside China and 2)numbers of travelers who went outside China.
Let's say 200 repatriated from Wuhan to France, one week ago. According to the Lancet paper,
one would have expected one contaminated amongst the repatriated. And we got exactly what was
expected. On the next batch of 250 repatriated there was no cases.
To conclude:
- the thesis of the correctness of officially released Chinese data has no strong argument
for it.
- the Lancet is probably overestimating, maybe 2 times. The reality would still be several
times above official numbers.
By the way, one key witness of the skripal-like story of a Chinese spy stealing the virus
in Canada will not be able to help. Dr. Frank Plummer just died unexpectedly...
Posted by: Theophrastus | Feb 8 2020 21:45 utc | 35
[.] "Since every epidemic is different from every other in often quite subtle ways,
epidemiologists "specialise" in fudging a model's parameters (hence the term "fudge factor")
so that the model now agrees with historical data. Yet why would current epidemics always
behave like past epidemics? No epidemiologist I have asked was ever able to answer this
question with the hard empirical reasoning that is science's only guarantee, and hence the
predictions are really not all that trustworthy."
Kudos. Thank you.
In grabbing "numbers" what has been overlooked by most is the fact that the Prof Ferguson
said he was "estimating" "guessing'
And there is that bit of anti-China seeping through.
b reminded us of the 2009 swine flu. Fear mongering went with that one too. Governments
bought millions of doses of vaccines, months after some 4.7 million vaccines were destroyed.
It's only money.
If nCoV is indeed a bio weapon, a Frankenstein entity bioengineered by man: http://stateofthenation.co/?p=6103
And if this came from outside of China, then, I suspect the Chinese gov are indeed lying.
It is like in a war. The enemy fires some heavy duty weapons at you and you try hide the
effect of it. Not to mention that revealing the true situation could get the gov toppled.
This could be to big of a loss for them to remain on top.
'What do you think would have happened if nCoV19 would have emerged in the U.S.?" b@24
That is the big question: the US is totally oriented towards maximising profits for the
healthcare and pharmaceutical industries. There are large areas in which half or more of the
population is uninsured and thus beyond the purview of doctors and other practitioners. All
infrastructure including those vital to public health are in an unprecedented state of
disrepair and collapse.
Jen @32 goes some way to answering the question. Relying on a compliant propaganda apparatus
masquerading as news media the authorities would lie, there would be massive migrations
towards 'safer areas.' And then the killing would start.... Among the first victims would
independent sources of information.
The economic blowback will be the same regardless of the true scale of the epidemic. It will
take as long to ratchet up production lines again as they have been down. That means that the
supply-chain issues are only going to get worse even if the scale of the epidemic is
decreasing. Countries like mine (Australia) will feel it both ways (lower demand for
commodities, more expensive parts/supply), and then some: Australia's economy is baked into
China's, especially in the service sector -- $34b/annum tertiary education sector, 25% of
tourist market, with the added effect that Chinese tourists outspend the next highest
spenders (those from the US) by 3 to 1. At the university I work at, 6000 Chinese students
cannot return to Australia to commence the first semester of the year (beginning Feb 24). One
can only imagine the loss of fees, accomodation spending, per diem spending in local
businesses, etc. Australia will not lift the travel ban until they are absolutely sure -- and
if there is such uncertainty about the true scale of the epidemic or the reliability of the
CCP reporting, then the travel ban will last longer than is necessary. There are fears here
that this will finally tip Australia into recession.
Which raises a further question, linked to scale: Is the exaggerated response a calculated
pretext for decoupling? I wonder whether our government is using the opportunity to
precipitate an economic crisis for which it would be otherwise blamed. The collateral damage
is going to be extensive. Universities in Australia, who have lost almost half their public
funding in the last 25 years, and who are utterly dependent on Chinese patronage, are soiling
themselves as we speak. It won't matter in the end whether it was a real or fake epidemic,
the 'contagion' (as they say in financial doublespeak) has already begun.
All reports and remarks about a Case Fatality Rate of 2% or less are nonsense.
After infection diagnosis, median time to death (if death occurs) was reported to be around
two weeks, and might even be longer.
Implication: you have to compare accumulated deaths as of today with total infections two
weeks ago. Prof. Ferguson mentioned this as well. Kindly ask B and others to consider this
methodical approach. It seems to be very important to get a more realistic feeling for the
CFR. This virus is very dangerous.
pft @62:
Yes, the coronavirus "incident" has the feel of a rehearsal to me. I know it's difficult, but
I think we ought to struggle to keep alive our skepticism. We are taking the media on faith.
We do not in fact actually know if there is an epidemic, let alone if it is severe.
Once again I call everyone's attention to the preparatory work:
Even if this were not real, but only a hoax, I don't know how it wd look any different.
Fact is-- we are endlessly manipulated by Big Media and know nothing. We're in Plato's
cave.
"decade-old simulation titled "Lock Step" devised by the Rockefeller Foundation in
conjunction with the Global Business Network. The scenario, one of four included in a
publication called "Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development" in
2010, describes a coronavirus-like pandemic that becomes the trigger for the imposition of
police-state controls on movement, economy, and other areas of society."
In the course of the last two weeks, the World Health Organization (WHO) had already
pointed to a possible Global Public Health crisis in relation to China's novel coronavirus
(2019-nCoV) categorized as a viral pneumonia. The virus outbreak is centred in the city of
Wuhan, a city in Eastern China with a population in excess of 11 million.
On 22 January, the members of the WHO Emergency Committee "expressed divergent views on
whether this event constitutes a PHEIC or not".
On January 30, The Committee reconvened and declared the coronavirus epidemic as a Public
Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).
(for details on the Committee meetings scroll down to ANNEX)
What justified this far-reaching decision by the WHO Director General?
About 9,600 corona virus (pneumonia) confirmed cases (Jan 30). And 213 deaths recorded in
China on Jan 30, which has a population of almost 1.4 billion.
No deaths have been reported out of Mainland China.
Out of 9600 confirmed cases, approximately 150 cases of infection have been recorded outside
China. Moreover, (based on the above data, Jan 30), the 2019 nCoV has a low mortality rate
(2.1%) compared to the Seasonal flu.
CBS Screen scan, Jan 30, 2020
The above CBS quotation is misleading.
Based on January 30 data, what should be emphasized is the following
No deaths occurred outside China,
More than 9500 recorded cases in China,
Approximately 150 cases recorded outside China, (see list below)
In contrast, in the US, the Centers of Disease Control estimate that so far for the 2019-20 season, at
least 15 million flu virus illnesses , 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S,
which has population of 330 million, about a quarter that of China.
And there was virtually no coverage or concern regarding the Seasonal Flu, which in 2017
resulted globally in 650,000 deaths.
Source CDC
The media has gone into hight gear: The Wuhan coronavirus is portrayed as a global
threat.
The latter is not corroborated by the recorded cases of infection and death.
Only 150 cases outside of China Mainland (Jan 30). No deaths recorded outside China.
Ironically, WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in a press conference confirmed
that:
"The main reason for this declaration is not because of what is happening in China, but
because of what is happening in other countries. Our greatest concern is the potential for
the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems, and which are ill-prepared to
deal with it."
What was happening "in other countries" (aka approximately 150 cases of infection and no
recorded deaths in 23 countries and 2 territories (Macau and Hong Kong) (Jan 30)) does not
justify the launching of a WHO sponsored Worldwide Public Health Emergency. (See below for
distribution by country).
Coronavirus cases of infection: by country
Source Al Jazeera quoting official sources, January 31, 2020
Do these numbers justify the launching of a Worldwide Public Health Emergency?
6 in the US, 2 in Canada, 16 in Japan, 2 in the UK, 7 in Germany, etc. (Jan 30)
No deaths outside China recorded (Jan 30). And expert opinion under the helm of the World
Health Organization (WHO) has endorsed a Worldwide health emergency, which is creating havoc.
What is required is routine WHO support to China and countries which have recorded virus
infections.
The decision of the Director-General of the WHO is dramatic and unnecessary. It has
triggered an atmosphere of fear and intimidation.
Fake Emergency? Can we Trust the WHO?
In turn, the corporate media serves as an instrument of disinformation. The public has been
misled.
About 150 infections Worldwide (excluding China). The World population is 7.7 billion,
China's population is 1.4 billion.
A rash Committee decision adopted at WHO headquarters in Geneva.
There are precedents: In 2009, based on incomplete and scanty data, the WHO predicted ("with
authority") that the H1N1 swine flu virus would result in :
" as many as 2 billion people could become infected over the next two years -- nearly
one-third of the world population. " (World Health Organization as reported by the Western
media, July 2009).
It turned out to be a multibillion bonanza for Big Pharma supported by the WHO's
Director-General Margaret Chan.
In June 2009, Margaret Chan made the following statement:
"On the basis of expert assessments of the evidence, the scientific criteria for an
influenza pandemic have been met. I have therefore decided to raise the level of influenza
pandemic alert from Phase 5 to Phase 6. The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza
pandemic.Margaret Chan,
Director-General, World Health Organization (WHO), Press Briefing 11 June 2009)
A financial windfall for Big Pharma Vaccine Producers including GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis,
Merck & Co., Sanofi, Pfizer. et al.
Swine Flu Fake News, Fake Statistics, Lies at the Highest Levels of Government
The media went into overdrive. (without a shred of evidence). Fear and Uncertainty. Public
opinion was deliberately misled
" Swine flu could strike up to 40 percent of Americans over the next two years and as
many as several hundred thousand could die if a vaccine campaign and other measures aren't
successful." (Official Statement of Obama Administration, Associated Press, 24 July
2009).
"The U.S. expects to have 160 million doses of swine flu vaccine available sometime in
October", ( Associated Press, 23 July 2009)
But the pandemic never happened.
There was no pandemic affecting 2 billion people
Millions of doses of swine flu vaccine had been ordered by national governments from Big
Pharma. In the meantime the H1N1 virus had mutated. Millions of doses were subsequently
destroyed: a financial bonanza for Big Pharma, an expenditure crisis for national
governments.
There was no investigation into who was behind this multibillion fraud.
Several critics said that the H1N1 Pandemic was "Fake" .
Reported by Forbes:
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), a human rights watchdog, is
publicly
investigating the WHO's motives in declaring a pandemic. Indeed, the chairman of its
influential health committee, epidemiologist Wolfgang Wodarg, has declared that the "false pandemic" is
"one of the greatest medicine scandals of the century." (
Forbes , February 10, 2010, emphasis added)
Can we trust the World Health Organization (WHO) and Western governments including the US
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), all of which are serving the interests of Big
Pharma (at tax payers' expense)?
What are the stakes, why the media propaganda?
ANNEX
This annex provides details on the January 3oth WHO Decision to identify the Wuhan
coronavirus epidemic as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).
The Director-General welcomed the Committee and thanked them for their support. He turned
the meeting over to the Chair, Professor Didier Houssin.
.
Representatives of the Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China reported on the
current situation and the public health measures being taken. There are now 7711 confirmed and
12167 suspected cases throughout the country. Of the confirmed cases, 1370 are severe and 170
people have died. 124 people have recovered and been discharged from hospital.
The WHO Secretariat provided an overview of the situation in other countries. There are now
83 cases in 18 countries. Of these, only 7 had no history of travel in China. There has been
human-to-human transmission in 3 countries outside China. One of these cases is severe and
there have been no deaths.
At its first meeting, the Committee expressed divergent views on whether this event
constitutes a PHEIC or not. At that time, the advice was that the event did not constitute a
PHEIC, but the Committee members agreed on the urgency of the situation and suggested that the
Committee should continue its meeting on the next day, when it reached the same conclusion.
This second meeting takes place in view of significant increases in numbers of cases and
additional countries reporting confirmed cases.
The Committee welcomed the leadership and political commitment of the very highest levels of
Chinese government, their commitment to transparency, and the efforts made to investigate and
contain the current outbreak. China quickly identified the virus and shared its sequence, so
that other countries could diagnose it quickly and protect themselves, which has resulted in
the rapid development of diagnostic tools.
The very strong measures the country has taken include daily contact with WHO and
comprehensive multi-sectoral approaches to prevent further spread. It has also taken public
health measures in other cities and provinces; is conducting studies on the severity and
transmissibility of the virus, and sharing data and biological material. The country has also
agreed to work with other countries who need their support. The measures China has taken are
good not only for that country but also for the rest of the world.
The Committee welcomed a forthcoming WHO multidisciplinary technical mission to China,
..
The Committee wished to re-emphasize the importance of studying the possible source, to rule
out hidden transmission and to inform risk management measures
The Committee also emphasized the need for enhanced surveillance in regions outside Hubei,
including pathogen genomic sequencing, to understand whether local cycles of transmission are
occurring.
WHO should continue to use its networks of technical experts to assess how best this
outbreak can be contained globally.
WHO should provide intensified support for preparation and response, especially in
vulnerable countries and regions.
Measures to ensure rapid development and access to potential vaccines, diagnostics,
antiviral medicines and other therapeutics for low- and middle-income countries should be
developed.
WHO should continue to provide all necessary technical and operational support to respond to
this outbreak, including with its extensive networks of partners and collaborating
institutions, to implement a comprehensive risk communication strategy, and to allow for the
advancement of research and scientific developments in relation to this novel coronavirus.
WHO should continue to explore the advisability of creating an intermediate level of alert
between the binary possibilities of PHEIC or no PHEIC, in a way that does not require reopening
negotiations on the text of the IHR (2005).
WHO should timely review the situation with transparency and update its evidence-based
recommendations.
The Committee does not recommend any travel or trade restriction based on the current
information available.
The Director-General declared that the outbreak of 2019-nCoV constitutes a PHEIC and
accepted the Committee's advice and issued this advice as Temporary Recommendations under the
IHR.
The Emergency Committee will be reconvened within three months or earlier, at the discretion
of the Director-General.
The Director-General thanked the Committee for its work.
This corona virus panic is interesting. RT has an interesting piece that points out that
corona virus has been officially recognized in some 8,000 odd people and 200 odd people have
died from it, we need a sense of perspective. World wide seasonal flu, kills between 350,000
and 600,000 people each year. Tuberculosis kills over 1,000,000 people each year. Malaria
kills a similar number. AIDS killed over 500,000 last year. And we're panicking about 200 or
so?
Just had an email from a company I deal with in China, the relevant passages-
2. The company has been following instructions from the Chinese government to postpone
the Spring Festival holiday to Feb. 9th, 2020 if not any further postpone. But, we believe
most of our services should be provided as usual since then.
5. We also would like your attention that there's yet no evidence or cases to support
the transmission of the novel coronavirus through packages or imported goods. According to
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the US, because of poor survivability
of these coronaviruses on surfaces, there is likely very low risk of spread from products or
packaging that are shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures. The
National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China advises that coronavirus is
spread most often by respiratory droplets from one person to another, regular packages from
Wuhan can be received as usual. Reference links are attached as the footnote below for your
references.[1]
6. The Company will take proactive measures like ultraviolet light to ensure a safe and
healthy environment of its warehouse. Disinfection work will be conducted before each
delivery.
Here are links to antiviral treatments using natural ingredients that are effective against
all the other cold and flu virus outbreaks that happen every year. As "B" points out the vast
majority of cases are just run of the mill virus outbreaks that happen every year.
Zn(2+) inhibits coronavirus and arterivirus RNA polymerase activity in vitro and zinc
ionophores block the replication of these viruses in cell culture. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21079686
Posted by: krollchem | Feb 2 2020 18:42 utc |
17 napper 19 minutes ago ( Edited ) remove Share link Copy Propaganda op to stoke panic & fear.
@Wielgus High
blood pressure is weird. I'm one of those low-carb diet kooks, except that my particular
kooky diet seems to work. It seems to result in weight loss, healthier "numbers" from A1C to
blood pressure, but there's also a number of related "gurus" (because in the US, diet and
many scientific things can't be talked about objectively, but must be discussed using words
like "belief", "gurus" etc.) who say that blood pressure is not the Holy Grail, and a lot of
the push to get certain numbers is, like almost everything in the US, a sales tactic to get
people onto (as is always the case even if it's dirt-cheap to make) expensive medicine in the
US.
I have a "suburbian" family as close friends so I get to see the internals of suburbian
life, and a lot of it revolves around medicines. They start and end their day with handfuls
of pills, and the husband is particularly successful as he's graduated from relative health
to oral diabetes medicine to multiple injections of (expensive) insulin a day.
The standard American diet is exactly what you'd want to feed Wagyu cattle on, fatten 'em
up with plenty of marbling and slaughter 'em young to harvest that lovely marbled meat. So
Americans are started from young childhood on a breakfast of carbs and sugar to lots of white
bread and "healthy grains" (it means they're dyed brown) and if they're doing it right
they're "on the (insulin) needle" by their 60s.
I have no doubt Trump has one or more pet doctors who follow him around, like Hitler's Dr.
Morell, dosing him up on all kinds of stuff and the latest cutting edge stuff too. But he
doesn't look like a high blood pressure case. I've never seen him with a "florid" (red)
complexion, even when he's worked up like at a rally. In anything, the orange spray tan seems
to be intended to conceal what would otherwise be an unhealthy pallor.
Considering how long Dick Chaney hung on (is it still alive, in Texas somewhere, venturing
out at night to feed on young children?) modern medicine can keep one of these walking
corpses going for a long time. Trump may even be getting human growth hormone. It was taken
off of the market because AIDS got into the supply, but in his case he'd get it harvested
from thoroughly vetted victims, freshly harvested from the immigrant camps perhaps. (More
probably from gulags in N. Korea or some such place.)
Human growth hormone would explain the portly figure, as it makes everything grow,
including internal organs. This is why a lot of modern bodybuilders are described as "looking
like they swallowed a turtle" their 6-pack abs bulging out due to the larger organs
underneath. Trump's too old to develop the characteristic facial features, like a gap between
the front teeth, but it would also explain the thick fingers.
The trouble is, if they couldn't keep Steve Jobs going, they probably can't keep Trump
going, or coherent, forever.
The initial symptoms were mild, which permitted many people to travel before stronger
symptoms were detected. The first occurrences in December thus appeared to be of minor concern.
The incubation period has not been definitively stated but, once infections began, the spread
was surprisingly rapid after the first case was confirmed on December 31: on January 3, 44
cases; January 21, 225 cases, January 24, 830 cases. Local medical authorities have said the
true extent of the Wuhan coronavirus is unclear, and the early official figures may have been
an underestimation since the mild symptoms and delayed onset meant infections may have been
undetected.
All the evidence suggests the Chinese authorities acted effectively as soon as they realised
the danger they might be facing. Medical authorities immediately declared the outbreak, and
within a week they had identified the pathogen and also determined and shared the genome
sequence with the WHO and other parties, a sufficiently speedy response that earned praise from
the WHO and scientists around the world.
Remembering the SARS troubles, they did much more. In most large centers in the country, all
sports venues, theaters, museums, tourist attractions, all locations that attract crowds, have
been closed, as have all schools. All group tours have been cancelled. Not only the city of
Wuhan but virtually the entire province of Hubei has been locked down, with all trains,
aircraft, buses, subways, ferries, grounded and all major highways and toll booths closed.
Thousands of flights and train trips have been cancelled until further notice. Some cities like
Shanghai and Beijing are conducting temperature tests on all roadways leading into the cities.
In addition, Wuhan is building (in five days) a portable hospital of 25,000 square meters to
deal with the infected patients. As well, Wuhan has asked citizens to neither leave nor enter
the city without a compelling reason, and all are wearing face masks.
The scale of the challenge of implementing such a blockade is immense, comparable to closing
down all transport links for a city 5 times the size of Toronto or Chicago, two days before
Christmas. These decisions are unprecedented, but testify to the determination of the
authorities to limit the spread and damage of this new pathogen. They not only address the
gravity of the situation but also the seriousness of consideration for the public health,
unfortunate and difficult decisions since the holiday is being destroyed for hundreds of
millions of people. Most public entertainment has been cancelled, as have tours, and many
weddings as well. The damage to the economy during this most festive of all periods, will also
be enormous. Hong Kong will suffer severely in addition to all its other troubles, since visits
from Mainland Chinese typically support much of its retail economy during this period.
The Chinese New Year is the most important festival for Chinese. Saturday, January 25, is
the first day of the Lunar New Year, a festive period that typically sees the largest
mass-movement of people on the planet as Chinese flock back to their hometowns to be with
relatives. No health authority has ever tackled the challenge currently faced by China, as the
country grapples with a new coronavirus just as hundreds of millions prepare to travel.
And of course the Western media had a field day of schadenfreude . CNN published a
report – a bit too gleefully, I thought – on the potential damage to China's
economy: (1)
"China's economy is slumping and the country is still suffering the effects of the trade
war with America. An outbreak of a new and deadly virus is the last thing it needs. The Wuhan
coronavirus has already roiled Chinese markets and thrown plans for the upcoming Lunar New
Year holiday into chaos for millions of people. The world's second biggest economy grew at
its slowest pace in nearly three decades last year as it contended with rising debt, cooling
domestic demand and US tariffs, many of which remain in place despite a recent truce. Beijing
is worried about unemployment, too, and has announced a wave of stimulus measures in recent
weeks aimed at preventing mass layoffs. . . The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak could spark
widespread fear and spur people to hunker down and avoid going outside. That kind of behavior
would deal a huge blow to the service sector, which now accounts for about 52% of the Chinese
economy." [And so on . . .]
The Western media have already staked out their claim to the fundamentals, all media sources
claiming the virus was transferred to humans from animals or seafood. The media have added fuel
to the fire by claiming the virus emerged from "illegally traded wildlife" in a market "where
offerings reportedly include wild animals that can carry viruses dangerous to humans", and that
this virus "jumped into the human population from an infected animal". Chinese officials stated
that the virus appears to have originated at a seafood market in Wuhan, though the actual
origin has not been determined nor stated by the authorities, and is still an open question
perhaps primarily since viruses seldom jump species barriers without human assistance.
While there is no evidence of biowarfare, a virus outbreak in the city of Wuhan immediately
prior to the Chinese New Year migration could potentially have dramatic social and economic
repercussions. Wuhan, with a population of about 12 million, is a major transport hub in
Central China, particularly for the high-speed train network, and with more than 60 air routes
with direct flights to most of the world's major cities, as well as more than 100 internal
flights to major Chinese cities. When we add this to the Spring Festival travel rush during
which many hundreds of millions of people travel across the country to be with their families,
the potential consequences for the entire country are far-reaching.
Comparison with SARS
This is a novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), an entirely new strain related to the MERS
(MERS-CoV) and the SARS (SARS-CoV) viruses, though early evidence suggests it is not as
dangerous.
SARS was proven to be caused by a strain of the coronavirus, a large family of mostly
harmless viruses also responsible for the common cold, but SARS exhibited characteristics never
before observed in any animal or human virus, did not by any means fully match the animal
viruses mentioned above, and contained genetic material that still remains unidentified –
similar to this new corona virus in 2019.
Virologist Dr. Alan Cantwell wrote at the time that "the mysterious SARS virus is a new
virus never before seen by virologists. This is an entirely new illness with devastating
effects on the immune system, and there is no known treatment." Dr. Cantwell also noted that
the genetic engineering of coronaviruses has been occurring in both medical and military labs
for decades. He wrote that when he searched in PubMed for the phrase "coronavirus genetic
engineering", he was referred to 107 scientific experiments dating back to 1987. To quote Dr.
Cantwell:
"I quickly confirmed scientists have been genetically engineering animal and human
coronaviruses to make disease-producing mutant and recombinant viruses for over a decade. No
wonder WHO scientists identified the SARS/coronavirus so quickly. Never emphasised by medical
news writers is the fact that for over forty years scientists have been "jumping species"
with all sorts of animal and human viruses and creating chimera viruses (viruses composed
from viruses of two different species). This unsupervised research produces dangerous
man-made viruses, many of which have potential as bioweapons. Certainly SARS has the
hallmarks of a bioweapon. After all, aren't new biological warfare agents designed to produce
a new disease with a new infectious agent? As in prior military experiments, all it might
take to spread SARS is an aerosol can . . ." (2) (3) (4)
Almost immediately upon receiving the genome sequence, several Russian scientists suggested
a link between SARS and biowarfare. Sergei Kolesnikov , a member of the Russian Academy of
Medical Sciences, said the propagation of the SARS virus might well have been caused by leaking
a combat virus grown in bacteriological weapons labs. According to a number of news reports,
Kolesnikov claimed that the virus of atypical pneumonia (SARS) was a synthesis of two viruses
(of measles and infectious parotiditis or mumps), the natural compound of which was impossible,
that this mix could never appear in nature, stating, "This can be done only in a laboratory."
(5) And Nikolai Filatov, the head of Moscow's epidemiological services, was quoted in the
Gazeta daily as stating he believed SARS was man-made because "there is no vaccine for this
virus, its make-up is unclear, it has not been very widespread and the population is not immune
to it." (6) (7)
It wasn't widely reported, but it seems the final conclusion of the Chinese biochemists was
the same, that the SARS virus was man-made. This conclusion wasn't a secret, but neither was it
promoted to the international media since they would simply have used the claim to heap scorn
on China, dismissing this as a paranoid conspiracy theory. The Western media totally ignored
this aspect, except for ABC news who reported that the SARS "Mystery Virus" was possibly "a
Chinese bio-weapon that accidentally escaped the laboratory". Nice of ABC to notice, but their
story, if true, would be the first example of a nation creating and releasing a race-specific
biological weapon designed to attack exclusively itself.
Notable is that while SARS spread to about 40 countries, the infections in most countries
were few and deaths almost zero, and it was exclusively (or almost exclusively) Chinese who
were infected, those in Hong Kong most seriously, with Mainland China suffering little by
comparison.
This appears to be precisely the case with this new virus, in that most of the infected
persons (sofar) are Chinese. News reports speak of infections appearing in Thailand or the US,
but those (at least to date of writing) were all Chinese who had been to Wuhan. There have been
no cases so far of infected Caucasians.
As with SARS, this new virus appears to be tightly-focused to Chinese. At this stage it is
too early to draw specific conclusions.
We might in other circumstances pass this off as an unfortunate coincidence but for some
major circumstantial events that serve to alter our focus. One of these is the history of
American universities and NGOs having come into China in recent years to conduct biological
experiments that were so illegal as to leave the Chinese authorities enraged. This was
particularly true when it became known that Harvard University had surreptitiously proceeded
with experiments in China that had been forbidden by the authorities years earlier, where they
collected many hundreds of thousands of Chinese DNA samples and then left the country. (8) (9)
(10) (11) (12)
The Chinese were furious to learn that Americans were collecting Chinese DNA. The government
intervened and prohibited the further export of any of the data. The conclusion at the time was
that the 'research' had been commissioned by the US military with the DNA samples destined for
race-specific bio-weapons research.
In a thesis on Biological Weapons, Leonard Horowitz and Zygmunt Dembek stated that one clear
sign of a genetically-engineered bio-warfare agent was a disease caused by an uncommon
(unusual, rare, or unique) agent, with lack of an epidemiological explanation. I.e. no clear
idea of source. They also mentioned an "unusual manifestation and/or geographic distribution",
of which race-specificity would be one. (13)
Recent disease outbreaks that would seem to possibly qualify as potential bio-warfare agents
are AIDS, SARS, MERS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Hantavirus, Lyme Disease, West Nile Virus, Ebola,
Polio (Syria), Foot and Mouth Disease, the Gulf War Syndrome and ZIKA. And in fact thousands of
prominent scientists, physicians, virologists and epidemiologists on many continents have
concurred that all these viruses were lab-created and their release deliberate. The recent
swine flu epidemic in China has the hallmarks as well, with circumstantial evidence of the
outbreak raising only questions.
There was another curiosity in this case, in that additional to the usual criticisms of
China being inactive or secretive, several US media replicated accusations from "a senior US
State Department official" claiming Washington was "still concerned" about transparency in the
Chinese government on the Wuhan coronavirus. Other articles claimed the US CDC was "concerned
that Chinese health officials have still not released basic epidemiological data about the
Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, making it more difficult to contain the outbreak." There is no
substantial reason that officials at any level of the US State Department should concern
themselves with a virus outbreak in a foreign country.
Their criticisms were surprisingly detailed, demanding specifics on the number of infections
directly from contact with the Wuhan market, the number of person-to-person infections, the
precise incubation period from exposure to the onset of symptoms, the point at which persons
become contagious. The questions were presented in benevolent terms of helping the Chinese
medical authorities deal with the virus, though it was already self-evident China had no need
to be lectured on such basics.
As of the date of writing, details are still too scarce to form definitive conclusions but,
in every such case, once the smoke clears there are many unanswered questions that challenge
the official Western narrative, but it's old news and the media have already staked out their
ground so the matter dies in the Western public mind, but not in China.
*
Note to readers: please click the share buttons above or below. Forward this article to your
email lists. Crosspost on your blog site, internet forums. etc.
Larry Romanoff is a
retired management consultant and businessman. He has held senior executive positions in
international consulting firms, and owned an international import-export business. He has been
a visiting professor at Shanghai's Fudan University, presenting case studies in international
affairs to senior EMBA classes. Mr. Romanoff lives in Shanghai and is currently writing a
series of ten books generally related to China and the West. He can be contacted at: [email protected] . He is a frequent contributor to Global
Research.
Recent research finds that official
government figures may be underestimating drug deaths by half.
Researchers estimate that 142,000 people
died due to drug use in 2016.
Drug use decreases life expectancy after
age 15 by 1.4 years for men and by just under 1 year for women, on average.
Government records may be severely underreporting how many Americans die from drug use, according to a
new study by researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and Georgetown University.
Researchers analyzed more than 44 million death certificates issued nationwide over an 18-year period to
identify nearly 670,000 deaths that coded as drug-related.
Their models showed these drug-coded deaths, which included drug overdoses and mental health and
behavioral conditions related to drug use, only accounted for about half of all drug-associated deaths.
According to the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the
reported
Trusted Source
rate of drug-related deaths among 15- to 64-year-olds was 9 percent in 2016. This is already a significant
rise from about 4 percent 7 years earlier, when the NCHS classified 63,000 deaths as drug-related.
However, that estimate didn't include deaths that aren't related to overdose but can still involve drug
use, such as HIV, suicide, and blood vessel damage.
Including these factors, researchers estimate the actual figure is more than double the NCHS figures, at
142,000 people dead due to drug use in 2016.
"These findings should be accentuating the wakeup call that has already been announced year after year,
as the drug overdose deaths are revealed by the National Center [for] Health Statistics. The fact is that,
apparently, the drug epidemic is twice as serious as indicated by those analyses,"
Samuel Preston
, PhD, professor of sociology at the University of Pennsylvania and one of the study
authors, told Healthline.
In 2017, more than
70,000 Americans
died from drug overdoses, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse.
Preston admits he wasn't surprised by the findings.
"I think we believed that there would be residual effects of drug use that were not showing up in
overdose deaths, and that's what we found. We didn't know what the multiplier would be exactly, but I think
two [double the NCHS number] is not an unreasonable, unexpected outcome," he said.
While this study reveals the magnitude of a disturbing trend, researchers say it doesn't establish the
reasons why. However, there are two prevailing theories:
The drug supply has increased with the introduction of prescription opioids
like fentanyl and oxycontin as well as nonprescription drugs like heroin.
Deaths that stem from the misuse of alcohol, other drugs, and suicide may be
impacted by depression.
"It's not just about the supply of drugs, but that there's something else behind all of it that causes
people to either use drugs or alcohol or commit suicide because they've lost interest in their life,"
co-study author Dana Glei, senior research investigator at Georgetown University, explained in a
statement
.
Researchers found the drug epidemic seems to have had little impact on the Plains states like Nebraska,
Iowa, Kansas, and the Dakotas.
However, the regions experiencing higher drug death rates are dispersed across the country. They include
the Appalachian states, parts of New England, and most of the Southwest, including Utah.
"Among deaths at ages 15–64 in 2016, the drug-associated fraction is highest in West Virginia at 39% for
men and 27% for women and lowest in Nebraska," the study authors
wrote
Trusted Source
.
The study also finds that drug use decreases life expectancy after age 15 by 1.4 years for men and by
just under 1 year for women, on average.
However, the researchers found the figures are more than twice as high in West Virginia, one of the
states hit hardest by the opioid crisis.
Preston points out that Pennsylvania is another state especially affected by the current drug crisis.
The study found that in 2016, Pennsylvania deaths attributable to drugs were 34 percent in males and
almost 25 percent in women, between ages 15 and 64 years.
"It's saying something fairly deep about what's going on in this country, isn't it?" Preston concluded.
"It's an interesting analysis. But my initial reaction is that drug-related is highly complex and vague.
There are so many drugs, from prescription to illegal drugs, and drug-related is nebulous," said
Eric Feigl-Ding
, a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard T.H. Chan
School of Public Health and an expert adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO).
"It includes not just opioids but also HIV-fighting drugs, chronic disease drugs, and others. Also, this
analysis covers so many diseases too. It's hard to interpret, and hard to use to inform the drug crisis," he
said.
Feigl-Ding adds it's very tricky to interpret data between states because, as researchers noted in the
study's limitations, "the practice of identifying, or capacity to determine, intent for drug poisonings
varies across states."
Feigl-Ding also specifies this study is ecologic, and it uses another approximation method that has many
assumptions in indirect modeling.
Feigl-Ding clarifies that "ecologic means the analysis is done at the generic state level and not county
(better) or individual level (best)."
He emphasizes the study authors used drug deaths as a proxy of other nondrug deaths that are likely
drug-related, and that makes the results very difficult to interpret.
"This method is not used at all by major U.S. Burden of Disease expert groups or WHO-supported Global
Burden of Disease groups," Feigl-Ding said.
"For example, 'alcohol and drug use' are lumped together, and percent mortality in the U.S. is presented
here," he said.
As the opioid epidemic continues to affect Americans, recent research finds that official government
figures may be underestimating drug deaths by half.
Researchers included drug deaths due to infectious or cardiovascular disease and "deaths of despair,"
like suicide, in their estimate.
Although deaths due to drug use are increasing nationwide, West Virginia and Pennsylvania are among the
states most severely affected.
However, not all experts agree with the research method that was used to produce these findings.
"... The novel coronavirus is likely a variant of some animal virus that crossed over to a human host. This probably happens way more often than we recognize. ..."
The current 4% case-fatality rate of the coronavirus (which still may increase) is also not
especially high. The Spanish Flu pandemic, which began in the U.S. , had a fatality rate of
about 10%. It was unusual in that it killed mostly young adults. The novel coronavirus
seems to be quite usual in that it mostly kills people who are already weakened by other
circumstances. The infection is then often the 'last drop in the bucket' that kills a
person who already had a medical condition.
... ... ..
The novel coronavirus is likely a variant of some animal virus that crossed over to
a human host. This probably happens way more often than we recognize.
Posted by b on January 25, 2020 at 17:30 UTC | Permalink
I wonder what role timing (Chinese New Year) plays. Person-to-person contact and travel are
enhanced during CNY. Is CNY the worst time to fight the spread?
But if it is not a misspelling, I do not understand completely who coefficient larger
than 1 lead to an end of an epidemic. Perhaps the coefficient reflects the number of
contacts of an infected person with the susceptible part of the population, small
coefficient tells that this subpopulation is not so big. Once enough of the susceptible
people go through the disease and build antibodies (or succumb in a minority of cases), the
coefficient drops below 1.
Asian habit to wear masks can also decrease the number of infections produced by a
person who is infectious and asymptomatic.
Thanks for this balanced presentation. I have been looking for one.
Just my 'back of the envelope' (so to speak) calculations were not justifying the
hysterical headlines.
I was surprise to see even Zerohedge, as balanced a web site as there is, was pushing
the hysteria. This is not to imply that the virus is not a very important issue. Rather, to
say that it is so important that it must be presented with factual (quantitative) analysis
and valid logical inferences.
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For comparison's sake, 80,000 people died of flu in 2018 in the United States alone. (at
least, according to the CDC ).
Coronavirus – or rather, this particular strain of coronavirus, as they are very
common and mostly harmless – has had 800 reported cases to go along with those 26
reported deaths. That's a mortality rate of just over three per cent.
Further, we don't even know the details of those 26 unfortunate patients, it's entirely
possible the 26 deaths are accounted for by the very old, the very young, or the
immuno-compromised. But even if they're not 3 per cent mortality is not high.
The death rate of bacterial meningitis, for example, stands at about 10%. Meningitis is an
unfortunate fact of life, but it's not a public health scare.
SARS, of course, was a public health scare – totally unjustifiably, as it turns out.
Most of you will remember the SARS outbreak of
2002/2003 being similarly apocalyptically covered in the media.
In the end, over the course of just about a year 9000 cases resulted in 800 people losing
their lives. These numbers are rough because, as a syndrome rather than a disease, SARS is
difficultly to clearly diagnose. Assuming the stats are correct, that's a mortality rate of
about 9% or three times this "terrifying" coronavirus.
The simple reality is that this new virus strain is currently affecting a group of people
the size of a small primary school, and has killed fewer than a bad traffic pile-up or a
medium-sized drone strike.
So why the lockdown? Why the fear?
Usually, that means at least one agenda. Maybe more than one.
The Ebola outbreak of 2015/16 resulted in large numbers of NATO-backed doctors descending on
Western Africa to "assist". As a result, ebola vaccines that had been awaiting approval for
years got a 2 year field
study, before being approved .
During the 2009
"Swine Flu" panic , a German MEP accused the World Health Organisation of "creating a
panic" in order to sell vaccines. Though the WHO vehemently denied this, an independent report
later found that several of the "independent flu experts" that WHO consulted had financial
ties to vaccine manufacturers .
If you're agenda-spotting in this case, be on the lookout for a "new" medicine getting
rushed through patent offices. This anti-coronavirus drug will then be bought-up in huge
amounts by hospitals and health services the world over.
Whichever of the handful of pharmagiants owns the patent will get a huge profit boom, plus
the soaring stock prices that go along with owning the miracle cure to the scary disease du
jour .
Longer-term, there is vaccination to consider. Medicine you have to take even if you're not
sick is a goldmine for pharmaceutical companies, and if the government makes them mandatory
(always an issue simmering on the back-burner) well, then that's even better. Not only does it
mean they don't really have to work (I mean, how much work do you put into a product literally
everyone is legally obliged to use?), but the opportunities for large-scale genetic research
(and corruption) are endless.
Generally speaking, fear is always useful. If you can frighten people they do whatever you
say. A fact known to leaders and propagandists for centuries.
Following the Boston bombing, despite the manhunt being for just two alleged bombers, the
entire city of Boston was put on lockdown. The national guard rolled tanks down the street, and
nobody said a word.
Right now, despite fewer than 30 deaths, millions of Chinese people are under a "lockdown".
Public gatherings are being halted. That's power you can't buy.
It never hurts to normalise the idea of martial law. After all, you don't know when you
might need it for real.
I know there is a temptation, in alt-media circles, to see China as a good guy just because
they oppose US imperialism, but they have corruption and authoritarianism there too. Their
officials are just as power-hungry as ours. There's no reason to think they wouldn't take
advantage of a crisis (or even create one), in order to increase their control.
Hell, maybe there is no clear agenda at all. Maybe that's just the psychology of power.
Maybe scaring people feels good, and maybe controlling them feels better. Maybe there's no
point in doing terrible things to get into power if you're not going to use it for its own
sake.
Is it possible there's more to this story? Some fundamental dishonesty most people never
think to question? As always with the mainstream media, it's difficult to take anything for
granted.
We don't know the casualty numbers are accurate, China could be downplaying the
threat to minimise panic.
We don't know that the "lockdown" is as extensive as our media report, the press
could be exaggerating to paint China as hysterical or autocratic.
We don't even know for sure the disease exists at all , when you think about
it.
As usual, absolute scepticism is required. It's hard to say exactly what's happening yet,
but when 26 deaths makes international news that means something is going on.
Kit, when are you going to acknowledge that the Boston bombing was a staged event? They
couldn't make it more obvious. A man who has just had both legs blown off would not be
whizzed along in a wheelchair.
Is it possible there's more to this story? Some fundamental dishonesty most people never
think to question? As always with the mainstream media, it's difficult to take anything for
granted.
Oh yes.
Wikipedia says:
Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds that
include diarrhea in cows and pigs, and upper respiratory disease in chickens. In humans,
the virus causes respiratory infections, which are often mild, but in rare cases are
potentially lethal.
However, further down it says:
The virus was suspected to have originated in snakes,[12] but many leading researchers
disagree with this conclusion [13]
Emerging viral infections continue to pose a major threat to global public health. In
1997, a highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus was found to directly spread from
poultry to humans unlike previously reported transmission routs of
human‐to‐human and livestock‐to‐human, stirring a grave concern for
a possible influenza pandemic.
Authors:
Guangxiang (George) Luo: Above article only article published in journal
Shou‐Jiang Gao: A number of articles co-authored
We are told:
This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not
been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may
lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article
as doi: 10.1002/jmv.25683
No mention of snakes in abstract and you wonder why that is.
"It's complete garbage," says Edward Holmes, a zoologist at the University of Sydney's
Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity, who specializes in emerging RNA viruses,
a class that includes coronaviruses like 2019-nCoV. Holmes, who also holds appointments at
the Chinese CDC and Fudan University in Shanghai, is among a number of scientists who are
pointing out -- in virology forums, science Slacks, and on Twitter -- what they deem to be
major flaws in the paper, and calling on the journal to have it retracted. "It's great that
viral sequence data is getting shared openly in real time," says Holmes. "The downside is
then you get people using that data to make conclusions they really shouldn't. The result
is just a really unhelpful distraction that smacks of opportunism."
Preliminary analyses of the genetic data released by Chinese authorities suggest that
2019-nCoV is most closely related to a group of coronaviruses that typically infect bats.
But for a variety of reasons -- including that it's winter and bats are hibernating -- many
scientists suspect that some other animal moved the virus from bats to humans.
Wei's team compared the codons preferred by 2019-nCoV to those preferred by a handful of
potential hosts: humans, bats, chickens, hedgehogs, pangolins, and two species of
snakes.
They reported finding the most overlap in codon bias between 2019-nCoV and those two
kinds of snakes -- the Chinese cobra and the many-banded krait. Taken together, these
results "suggest for the first time that snake is the most probable wildlife animal
reservoir for the 2019-nCoV," the authors wrote. "New information obtained from our
evolutionary analysis is highly significant for effective control of the outbreak caused by
the 2019-nCoV-induced pneumonia."
Editors of the Journal of Medical Virology told WIRED they stand by the publication,
which they say went through a formal peer-review process that found the authors' methods
were solid. That process was expedited -- the reviewers were given 24 hours to comment and
the authors had three days to respond. But given the need for public health information,
they believe the speed-up was appropriate. "With this serious situation, with people dying,
holding this paper up in review would be criminal," says Shou-Jian Gao, the journal's
editor-in-chief. "This is intended to just open the scientific dialogue."
"It's complete garbage", "it's winter and bats are hibernating", "codons preferred by
2019-nCoV to those preferred by a handful of potential hosts: humans, bats, chickens,
hedgehogs, pangolins, and two species of snake [the Chinese cobra and the many-banded
krait.]"
"With this serious situation, with people dying, holding this paper up in review would be
criminal," says Shou-Jian Gao, the journal's editor-in-chief. "This is intended to just open
the scientific dialogue."
If this is science, I don't want it.
Dungroanin ,
Somethings ARE going on – THEY don't want us to know.
1. Brexit bs in 7 days – not the hard brexit THEY want, because they cornered
themselves with a deal that keeps us IN for the next 12 months requiring compliance ha ha
ha.
2. The Syrian escapade is OVER.
The Iran invasion is NOT going to happen. Iraq has a million citizens on the streets
PEACEFULLY confirming to the 2003 invaders to really fuck the fuck off. (And out of the EU,
they will not have us pushing them into ME meddling).
3. Russian bogeymaning is OVER. Russiagate is over. Ukrainegate is fucked because Biden
& Son won't risk being questioned. Trump will not want anymore casualties because he
proved that his military and MIC trillions can't stop the missiles turning the deep bunkers
at their bases from being turned into giant acoustic brain soup drums.
But hey lets look over there – dem chinese have a flu and are taking precautions
when most of them would be in transit for their new year and spread it faster than usual
The Empire is dead and no amount of Integrity Iniative bollocks and media management by
the brass or Royal soap opera can hide the end of the grand game as losers.
Watch as the stolen election victory turns to ashes on their tongues – Corbyn may
still notch up another PM before April.
The whole thing is just another exercise in deeply racist and hate-driven Sinophobia. The
Western MSM presstitute scum are virtually gloating over this affair, and, in the Guardian,
of course, their resident compradore (beep) 'Lily' Kuo, in Beijing, has turned the whole
thing into a great threat to Chinese stability, CCP rule and ' Emperor' Xi, of course, in an
exercise in hate-driven hysteria that will surely get her a pat on the head from her White
Masters.
The death-toll seems less than that in a typical 'flu season, mostly the old and previously
unwell, as usual, but is inflated with pure malice and barely disguised satisfaction. The
admirable Chinese efforts to curtail the spread of the disease are compared to so-called
'repression' of 'dissidents', and our ABC resident presstitute, Birtles, almost twitches with
delight and animus as he relays his agit-prop. The Chinese are about to build a 1000 bed
hospital, possibly in a weekend, while the UK NHS crumbles in the shite that is UK '
society', but now I recall that was euthanised by Thatcher decades ago. You can see why
Western supremacists so hate China. And I would vouch that this disease, so conveniently '
emerging' right at New Year, possibly came via Fort Detrick.
C: they also don't know what this is about (but don't want to admit)
I like scientific journals, more then newspapers as the scientific journals show the
conflict of interest of authors. Guess what
' FGH reports personal fees from University of Alabama Antiviral Drug Discovery and
Development Consortium, and is a non-compensated consultant for Gilead Sciences, Regeneron,
and SAB Biotherapeutics, which have investigational therapeutics for coronavirus
infections.'
We're looking at more people now dying from cancer, on a yearly basis, than all the wars
in human history put together. A greater percentage of people dying from cancer than ever
died from the bubonic plague.
Cancer is a relatively simple one to sort out (and a lot of it comes down to diet -cancers
feed on sugar, although very few oncologists will tell you that).
I would venture that our current tidal wave of cancer is largely due to psychopathy and
its endemic corruption: Big Pharma doesn't want you to die, but neither does it want you
well. Big Pharma wants you somewhere inbetween, where you are constantly ill and having to
pay for their 'cures'.
As an aside, can anyone name me a single member of the UK royal family (and there's an
awful lot of them) who's ever been diagnosed with cancer?
As an aside, can anyone name me a single member of the UK royal family (and there's an
awful lot of them) who's ever been diagnosed with cancer?
There seem to be quite a lot of people who think the UK Royal Family are a
cancer. Does that count?
Einstein ,
Public health panics are ideal for enforcing more controls on an already fearful and
submissive public.
The Wuhan "corona" (crown) virus is about as deadly as 'flu, which we weather without note
every year.
But health bureaucrats have noted how much "terror" panics can swell the budgets of the
military and police. "Epidemics" of "dangerous" bugs offer the ideal opportunity for the
builders of public health empires to follow suit.
Willem ,
3 per cent mortality for a transmittable disease, like corana virus (or common cold) is very
high. Earth has 7.5 billion inhabitants, so if all of them get infected, and 3% die, then 225
million people will die from corona virus.
But then the numbers are, as usual, probably at least partially bogus:
the nominator: 26 deaths are probably not all caused by corona virus, but only correlated
with corona virus. My guess (ad good as anyone's guess) is that of these 26 at most 10
died.
The denominator: who let's himself get tested for the common cold (corona virus). Probably
only the most severe cases. My guess, this virus is for 95% very mild for which no doctor is
visited, and then of the 5% who visit the doctor with common cold symptoms at most 1% is
tested positive for corona, which are the 800 cases. Which makes the denominator not 800, but
800:0,01:0,05:0,95=a very large number.
Now if you divide 10 over a very number, your death rate will be close to 0, similar as
the death rate is due to normal common cold.
The 'medical' sector has long been empowered by those who want their fears salved rather than
question the narratives that are fed and used to gain power or possession of others.
However, as with switching to 'non-violence' – a habitual identification isn't
something to be turned on or off when a crisis comes – but as a way of living.
Weaponised and marketised science gravitated to germ theory rather than the terrain theory
of pleomorphism (of biota).
Closed system thinking posits external 'evils' and 'avengers' for hidden sins and secret
fears, projecting 'cause' OUT THERE and diverting (sacrificing) energy and identity to
defence such that the guardians become guards that lock into fear, frailty and dependency as
the condition for NEEDING Powers that demand sacrifice of freedom and joy in life for a
perpetual threat-managed existence.
Mainstream science is generally the narrative that suits the Establishment – not
just of the 'powers of the day' – but the collective fear seeking protection and
reassurance.
Toxic exposures generate the terrain for a need to clear out or neutralise the toxic
environment – this results in 'inflammations and infections' which of course CAN be
fatal or result in degradation of health and cognition. Our 'Rockefeller medicine' has
focused on interventions that suppress or block symptoms to ward the idea of losing the realm
and skills of relational nursing and clinical doctoring to pharma-technicians – who
interpret most anything as a basis to intensify or increase the level and degree of
interventions.
Fear is contagious – and hidden or masked fears are simply secretly active.
Immunity is not a matter of 'antibodies' but firstly of cellular health and function.
This principle can be transferred to our social political culture.
Hugo ,
The Chinese government faced a lot of international criticism for its perceived tardiness in
handling the 2003 SARS crisis. The heavy-handedness at locking down Wuhan might be to do with
not wishing to face international criticism again.
The only surprise medical bills I have received is for claims that were denied by my
insurance company. Then the provider does not just demand what they would have received if the
claim had been approved, but the full billed amount, which is generally 2 to 10 times the
insurance amount. Providers should have to charge everyone the same price for the same thing.
Now they have an incentive to order dubious tests or procedures, because if a claim is denied,
they can bill for more money. I assume people without insurance are also billed for the full
amount, and they can least afford it.
I also think that if I call 911 and need emergency assistance, it should be provided by
the city or county, not a private company. That's true if police or fire engines are needed,
and likewise it should be for EMTs or ambulances.
"Plans with annual deductibles of $3,000, $5,000 or even $10,000 have become commonplace
since the implementation of the Affordable Care Act as insurers look for ways to keep monthly
premiums to a minimum.
But in rural areas, where high-deductible plans are even more prevalent and incomes tend to
be lower than in urban areas, patients often struggle to pay those deductibles.
That has hit patients like Flowers hard as they grapple with medical debt when emergencies
happen -- but small rural hospitals like Lincoln Community are suffering, too. These facilities
often stabilize critically ill patients and then transfer them to larger regional or urban
hospitals for more definitive care. But when the hospitals submit their claims, bills from the
first site of care generally get applied to a patient's deductible.
And if patients can't afford to cover that amount, those hospitals often don't get paid,
even as the larger urban hospitals where patients were transferred get close to full payment
from the health plan. 'As soon as we send them to the city, those things start being paid by
the insurance company,' said Kevin Stansbury, CEO of Lincoln Community, 'while we're still
chasing the patient around for collections.'"
"... If you are on Medicare, do not stay for observation unless you have a Plan G or Plan F. If you are on Plan N Supplemental to Medicare or lower, the plan will NOT pay 100% for Observation. You have to be admitted. You can go anywhere with Medicare for treatment. ..."
"... Medicare Advantage? You had better be in network or have some type of alternative program within your plan. ..."
The idea I have is not to be surprised. I am a careful patient who asks a lot of questions
and also advocate for myself. I have refused treatment when they use drugs which may threaten
my health further (Heparin). I am also not well liked by the bloodsuckers who come in to draw
blood and stab me through the vein for two weeks and destroyed my left arm in the process. Ask
them questions and do not be so willing to accept treatment (if cognizant) until they answer
your questions and then get their name. Take names and dates. It is ok to be a forceful
advocate for yourself. When all is said and done, the bill will come to you alone.
If you are on Medicare, do not stay for observation unless you have a Plan G or Plan F. If
you are on Plan N Supplemental to Medicare or lower, the plan will NOT pay 100% for
Observation. You have to be admitted. You can go anywhere with Medicare for treatment.
Medicare Advantage? You had better be in network or have some type of alternative program
within your plan.
There are good points to this article which is why I C and P-ed it here per their
request.
The cost of healthcare has become a hot topic in American politics in recent years, and with
good reason. A recent survey found that 22 percent
of Americans are losing sleep over healthcare or insurance costs, up from 13 percent just one
year ago.
One aspect in particular has even gained attention from both Congress and the President within
the past two months: surprise medical bills.
Congress has proposed bi-partisan legislation that sets up consumer protections against
surprise billing in certain situations. President Trump also issued an executive order in June
that calls for hospitals to be more transparent upfront about prices for common tests and
procedures, a measure that should go into effect later this year. ( While the House took out
the 10 year exclusivities for Biologic drugs, it ended up in the Budget bill giving exclusivity
for 12 years on new biologics. As I have pointed out repeatedly, risk adjusted R & D costs
are recouped in a median period of 3- 5 years. It is another
give-away to pharma. )
Past the leap, causes and prevention of Surprise Billing.
The cause of surprise
billing
Unexpected medical bills, often outrageously expensive, can catch patients by surprise if
they see a doctor who is not within their insurance network. It's a common issue, with the
Wall Street
Journal reporting that an estimated 51 percent of ambulance rides, 22 percent of ER visits
and 9 percent of elective cases lead to surprise medical costs.
What often happens is that while the hospital or clinic might be considered in-network, a
specific doctor might not be in-network (or vise versa). The legislation proposed by the Senate
includes cost protections for situations such as these, plus scenarios where patients receive
emergency care or follow-up care at an out-of-network facility due to travel restrictions.
While the new legislation and executive action may help patients and their families,
surprise billing will persist in situations outside the purview of these new protections. (
The proposed prevention of surprise billing did not make it through the Senate this time for
reasons I am not aware of today. More later .)
Preventing surprise healthcare
bills
The best way to combat surprise billing is to prevent it whenever possible. This requires
staying up-to-date on your insurance policies and looking at your options when scheduling
appointments.
Know the details of your insurance policy
The first step is understanding your specific insurance policy. Check with your provider for
a list of in-network hospitals, specialists and primary care physicians in your area so you can
know ahead of time where you'll have coverage. If you have an upcoming appointment, it's worth
calling your provider to double-check whether the facility and doctor you're seeing are
in-network and covered.
Your provider may also require prior authorization before an appointment in order to cover
some healthcare services or prescriptions, especially when visiting specialists.
Ask about costs upfront
Whether you're visiting a new primary care physician, seeing a specialist or have a planned
procedure coming up, call ahead to see what out-of-pocket costs you will be responsible for
paying. If you find that the facility or physician is out-of-network, you can request a
referral to a facility or physician that is in-network.
For planned visits, you can also ask about the billing codes for the tests or procedures
you'll be having so that you can confirm that your insurer will cover them. While many standard
preventative procedures like a basic cardiac stress test or mammogram are covered by insurance
policies, more advanced screenings such as a 3D mammogram may be billed under a different code
that is not covered by your insurance.
Make an emergency plan
While it's impossible to predict when emergencies will happen, you can make a plan to help
you prepare. If you know which emergency care providers are covered by your insurance plan, you
can have an idea of where to go. While it requires some research on the front-end, you can save
some stress and a lot of money in the long-run.
Understand your rights
In addition to new federal protections, many states have additional regulations regarding
"balance billing," when patients are billed for out-of-network providers at an in-network
facility. Don't be afraid to negotiate with hospital billing managers or doctors who billed you
when you are balance billed, and keep your insurance company in the loop on the situation.
Knowing your state's specific protections can help you get fees waived or lowered in these
cases.
Combating debt from surprise medical bills
Unfortunately, it's impossible to entirely prevent surprise medical bills -- especially in
the case of emergency services. In an emergency room, you have little to no control over which
physicians you see and what tests are run. You also don't always have time to call ahead to
check prices or request transfers to in-network facilities.
While it might not be possible to prevent some surprise healthcare costs, there are still
steps you can take to combat debt in these cases.
1. Double check itemized medical bills.
Mistakes happen. Sometimes patients are billed for tests, procedures or medications that
they didn't actually receive. Ask for an itemized bill, and ensure that you are only being
charged for services received. If you find a mistake in your bill, talk to the hospital's
billing department and the service provider.
In the case that a procedure or service on your bill should have been covered by your
insurance provider, ask about the specific billing code the hospital used. It's possible that
while the insurance provider covers a basic or general service, the billing code used may not
fall under the billing code your insurance company lists as covered. Talk with both the
hospital billing department and your insurance provider to see what can be done.
2. Avoid using credit cards whenever possible
Credit cards average around a 17 percent interest rate, meaning they are less-than-ideal for
covering high
medical costs . There are medical credit cards out there that offer short and long term
financing plans to cover medical expenses with minimal interest, which is an option for those
who can realistically pay off the debt within the specified time period.
When using a credit card is unavoidable, consider a credit card that offers a long intro
period to help you save on interest charges, such as well known Platinum
Visa Card might offer. If you end up with bills spread across multiple credit cards, a
balance transfer credit
card can also help you eliminate debt and save money on interest charges.
Just keep in mind that for all of these credit options, it's imperative that you can pay off
the debt within the 0% interest offer period. Otherwise, you'll be subject to high interest
rates that can cause even more financial stress.
For larger medical bills or debts, consider a personal loan (which offer lower, fixed
interest rates) to help cover the cost.
3. Protect your credit score
If for any reason you are unable to pay your medical bills on time, it's important to take
steps to protect your credit score. When you go more than 90-180 days without paying a medical
debt, it could become an unpaid collection account, which can show up on your credit report and
negatively affect your score. Luckily, newer credit score models such as the VantageScore 4.0
and FICO Score 9 often reduce the impact of these types of collection accounts.
If you know you'll be unable to pay medical bills, be open and honest with the hospital or
provider. You might be able to set up a plan that better fits your budget. At the very least,
you can explain the situation, pay as much as you can at the moment and potentially prevent
them from writing off your debt as a loss and selling it to a collection agency.
4. Open a savings account for unplanned medical costs
While you can't predict unplanned medical costs, you can prepare for them by saving money
for a rainy day. One option is contributing to a Healthcare Savings Account (HSA), which allows
you to add pre-tax/tax-deductible money into a savings account that you can use for approved
healthcare costs.
You can also set up a savings account with any bank to be used for healthcare costs. While
these accounts may not be tax-exempt, you can often get a better interest rate and avoid
regulations on what medical expenses you can and can't cover with the account.
Even if you only contribute $20 a month, it will add up over time and can help offset costs
to make medical expenses more affordable.
The Bottom Line
While it's promising that both Congress and the President are making strides towards
eliminating surprise medical bills and helping lower overall healthcare costs, sometimes
surprise billing is unavoidable. These tips can help you prevent these charges or combat
excessive debt that can often result from unplanned medical expenses.
davebarnes , January 11, 2020 9:28 pm
Kaiser Medicare Advantage.
Have NEVER has a strange nor bogus charge.
My colon cancer surgery + chemo was $2500 which I consider reasonable.
My 3 surgeries for a perianal abscess (trust me, you don't want one) was a few hundred
bucks.
4.5 miles to the hospital/medical center/pharmacy.
run75441 , January 11, 2020 11:42 pm
That is nice. Your time will come when they will charge more for those operations. You are
there forever and can not come back to Medicare. What do you think is happening with
commercial healthcare today for a majority of the people who have commercial healthcare?
likbez , January 12, 2020 12:09 am
Great post on a very important in the USA topic. Thank you run75441!
I would add the danger of calling ambulance from home in non-critical cases. Taxi to the
hospital is approx. 100 times cheaper and most cases is as effective :-).
In case the case is critical (like a real heart attack) be ready to pay out of network
changes ($5K-$15K) for the ride in states that do not provide protection against surprise
billing. Less then a half of the USA states some minimal (really minimal) protection against
those sharks.
Ambulances in the USA are overtaken by private equity and venture capital firms.criminals.
They are real Mafiosi. Or even worse because they profit of human sufferings. Private equity
sharks circle around and if they smell blood they will devour the victim without any merci. I
sometimes wonder why among around 40K of gun violence victims (39,773 in 2018) in the USA per
year this category is so underrepresented .
The core of the problem is that ambulances and private insurance companies do not agree on
a fair price, so the ambulance service doesn't join the insurance network. That leaves
patients stuck in the middle with out-of-network charges..
One patient got a $3,660 bill for a 4-mile ride. Another was charged $8,460 for a trip
from one hospital that could not handle his case to another that could.
Still another found herself marooned at an out-of-network hospital, where she'd been
taken by ambulance without her consent.
These patients all took ambulances in emergencies and got slammed with unexpected bills.
Public outrage has erupted over surprise medical bills -- generally out-of-network charges
that a patient did not expect or could not control -- prompting 21 states to pass laws
protecting consumers in some situations.
But these laws largely ignore ground ambulance rides, which can leave patients stuck
with hundreds or even thousands of dollars in bills, with few options for recourse, finds a
Kaiser Health News review of 350 consumer complaints in 32 states.
Patients usually choose to go to the doctor, but they are vulnerable when they call 911
-- or get into an ambulance. The dispatcher picks the ambulance crew, which, in turn, often
picks the hospital. Moreover, many ambulances are not summoned by patients. Instead, the
crew arrives at the scene having heard about an accident on a scanner, or because police or
a bystander called 911.
Betsy Imholz, special projects director at the Consumers Union, which has collected over
700 patient stories about surprise medical bills, said at least a quarter concern
ambulances.
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Opinion: There is more to picking a place to retire than low taxes -- avoid these 5
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Corporate Insiders Pocket $1 Billion in Rush for Coronavirus Vaccine
© Rafael Henrique/Getty Images Selling Vaxart stock made more than $197 million in profit for Armistice Capital, a hedge fund that owned two-thirds of the company's shares.
© Ted S. Warren/Associated Press A trial of a potential coronavirus vaccine announced by Moderna in January. Since then, Moderna insiders have sold shares totaling about $248 million.
© Will Ragozzino/Patrick McMullan Andrei Floroiu, the chief executive of Vaxart, received stock options worth about $4.3 million in June. A month later, they were worth more than $28 million.
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Fred C. Dobbs said...
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"We were all thinking this is a disease that kills old people, not kids," said David Reich, president of Mount Sinai Hospital in Manhattan. (Jeenah Moon/Reuters)
Paramedics bring home a woman with covid-19 who underwent an emergency C-section because she was gravely ill. After extensive care, including time on a ventilator, she was released from a hospital in Stamford, Conn., and she has a healthy newborn. (John Moore/Getty Images)
A colorized scan of a cell (shown in red) infected with SARS-COV-2 virus particles (shown in yellow), isolated from a patient sample. (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)
<img alt="What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It has happened before" src="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200428210047-coronavirus-new-york-0320-large-169.jpg"> What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It has happened before "One of the things about the search is it's a little bit like finding a needle in a haystack. We're all searching for the magical antibody that's a silver bullet," said Dr. James Crowe, who's leading the Covid-19 monoclonal antibody effort at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Regeneron is hoping to start clinical trials for an antibody treatment for coronavirus in humans as soon as next month, and if everything goes right, perhaps have a treatment ready for widespread distribution by the end of the summer. "We generated thousands of [antibodies] and then selected the most powerful and potent ones to grow up into an antibody cocktail," said company president Dr. George Yancopoulos. Like any treatment under development, it might not pan out. But if it does, it could treat coronavirus and possibly also prevent infection for a period of time. A vaccine would likely offer longer lasting immunity, but that would likely take longer to develop, with the earliest estimates set at January. "I think antibodies will be finished first, and will be the bridge toward longer immunity, which will be conferred by vaccines," said Crowe, director of the Vanderbilt Vaccine Center at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. 'A guided nuclear warhead' In mid-January, researchers at the Rockefeller University in New York City heard from the National Institutes of Health: Get to work because we hope to have coronavirus antibodies cloned by the spring. About two months later, Rockefeller researcher Jill Horowitz found herself handing out fliers outside a supermarket in New Rochelle, New York, inviting people who'd recovered from coronavirus to learn more about the Rockefeller study.
<img alt="They won the fight against coronavirus. Here&#39;s what life looks like on the other side" src="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200416042613-03-coronavirus-recovery-large-169.jpg"> They won the fight against coronavirus. Here's what life looks like on the other side The city -- and in particular one synagogue -- had been hit hard by a coronavirus outbreak. "I'm Jewish, and I'm Orthodox, and I know people at Young Israel. I have friends in New Rochelle. Our kids went to school together, so I could go into the community and make my case," said Horowitz, executive director of strategic operations in the immunology laboratory at Rockefeller. In all, more than 100 people donated blood for the study, many of them from the New Rochelle community. Some of their stories will be told in an upcoming documentary, " Rebel Blood The Race to Cure Covid-19 ." The lead scientist in Rockefeller's monoclonal antibody effort compares it to battle, noting that convalescent plasma has been used for more than a century. "If you're thinking about a war, and you're fighting a war with a drug that came out of the early part of the 20thcentury, the monoclonal antibody is like a guided nuclear warhead in comparison," said Dr. Michel Nussenzweig, a professor at Rockefeller. Research by several US teams Several other US teams also say they've cloned antibodies, including Vanderbilt, Regeneron, Lilly Pharmaceuticals and Distributed Bio. Regeneron anticipates starting clinical trials next month and hopes to provide "hundreds of thousands of doses" to patients by the end of the summer, Yancopoulos said. The company already makes monoclonal antibodies for several illnesses, including cancer, arthritis and asthma. "We're using the same exact technology now to come up with a specific tailored approach against Covid-19," Yancopoulos said. Get CNN Health's weekly newsletter Sign up here to get The Results Are In with Dr. Sanjay Gupta every Tuesday from the CNN Health team. Other companies gave a longer timeline. For example, Crowe, the doctor at Vanderbilt, said he anticipates it will be around the first quarter of next year before his team might have a Covid monoclonal antibody treatment ready to distribute. He said it's a good sign that several teams are working on monoclonal antibodies. "I think the more groups we have working on it, all the better, and the more shots on goal we have for getting an effective prevention or treatment," he said.
After WWI, the distinguished British economist Edwin Cannan was asked, somewhat reproachfully, what he did during the terrible war years. He replied: "I protested." The present article is a similar protest against the current lockdown policies put into place in most countries of the Western world to confront the current coronavirus pandemic.
Nebojsa Malic is a Serbian-American journalist, blogger and translator, who wrote a regular column for Antiwar.com from 2000 to 2015, and is now senior writer at RT. Follow him on Twitter @NebojsaMalic is a Serbian-American journalist, blogger and translator, who wrote a regular column for Antiwar.com from 2000 to 2015, and is now senior writer at RT. Follow him on Twitter @NebojsaMalic 26 Mar, 2020 06:50 Get short URL
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ER doctors, anesthesiologists, radiologists and other specialists who typically charge out-of-network prices are among the highest-compensated practitioners. I have found this to be true during my hospital visits. If the insurance company can not convince them to take a lesser rate, you are stuck will the bill. I have been tempted to ask at the time of need whether they are all in network and employees of the facility I am visiting that day. Countering the argument by insurance, doctors, and hospitals complain healthcare insurance companies have the upper hand due to size and market control and can pay the increased costs of out-of-network pricing. As shown chart 1, their claims are not precisely true and the market for healthcare has become less competitive as hospitals and ACOs buy up the competition.
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Reserving a 2021 Ford Bronco? Get Ready To Wait 18 Months to Take Delivery ![a close up of a cell phone screen with text: Selling Vaxart stock made more than $197 million in profit for Armistice Capital, a hedge fund that owned two-thirds of the company's shares.]({"default":{"load":"default","w":"80","h":"45","src":"//img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB17aQpp.img?h=450&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=808&y=530"},"size3column":{"load":"default","w":"62","h":"35","src":"//img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB17aQpp.img?h=351&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=808&y=530"},"size2column":{"load":"default","w":"62","h":"35","src":"//img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB17aQpp.img?h=351&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=808&y=530"}})
© Rafael Henrique/Getty Images Selling Vaxart stock made more than $197 million in profit
for Armistice Capital, a hedge fund that owned two-thirds of the company's shares.
![A trial of a potential coronavirus vaccine announced by Moderna in January. Since then, Moderna insiders have sold shares totaling about $248 million.]({"default":{"load":"default","w":"80","h":"45","src":"//img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB17aQpj.img?h=450&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1045&y=466"},"size3column":{"load":"default","w":"62","h":"35","src":"//img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB17aQpj.img?h=351&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1045&y=466"},"size2column":{"load":"default","w":"62","h":"35","src":"//img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB17aQpj.img?h=351&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=1045&y=466"}})
© Ted S. Warren/Associated Press A trial of a potential coronavirus vaccine announced by
Moderna in January. Since then, Moderna insiders have sold shares totaling about $248 million.
![a man smiling for the camera: Andrei Floroiu, the chief executive of Vaxart, received stock options worth about $4.3 million in June. A month later, they were worth more than $28 million.]({"default":{"load":"default","w":"80","h":"45","src":"//img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB17aOkc.img?h=449&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=824&y=414"},"size3column":{"load":"default","w":"62","h":"35","src":"//img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB17aOkc.img?h=351&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=824&y=414"},"size2column":{"load":"default","w":"62","h":"35","src":"//img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB17aOkc.img?h=351&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f&x=824&y=414"}})
© Will Ragozzino/Patrick McMullan Andrei Floroiu, the chief executive of Vaxart, received
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million.
<img alt="What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It has happened before"
src="//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200428210047-coronavirus-new-york-0320-large-169.jpg">
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