Russia is not as desperate for higher oil prices as is Saudi Arabia. There are a few reasons
for this. One of the key reasons is that the Russian currency is flexible, so it weakens when
oil prices fall. That cushions the blow during a downturn, allowing Russian oil companies to
pay expenses in weaker rubles while still taking in U.S. dollars for oil sales. Second, tax
payments for Russian oil companies are structured in such a way that their tax burden is
lighter with lower oil prices.
Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at roughly $84 per barrel for its
budget to breakeven.
... ... ...
Igor Sechin, the head of Russia's state-owned Rosneft, said that oil prices "should have
stabilized, because everyone was supposed to be scared" by the enormous OPEC+ production cuts.
"But nobody was scared," he said, according to Bloomberg. He blamed the Federal Reserve's rate
tightening for injecting volatility into the oil market, because traders have sold off
speculative positions in the face of higher interest rates.
...
Novak
offered the market some assurances that the OPEC+ coalition would step in to stabilize the
market if the situation deteriorates, suggesting that OPEC+ has the ability to call an
extraordinary meeting. He
told reporters on Thursday that the market still faces a lot of unknowns. "All these
uncertainties, which are now on the market: how China will behave, how India will behave...
trade wars and unpredictability on the part of the U.S. administration... those are defining
factors for price volatility," Novak said.
Nevertheless, Novak predicted the 1.2 mb/d cuts announced in Vienna would be sufficient.
Some analysts echo Novak's sentiment that, despite the current panic in the market, the cuts
should be sufficient. "We are looking at oil prices heading towards $70 to $80 quite a recovery
in 2019. That's really predicated on the thought that first of all, OPEC still is here. And I
think that the market is underestimating that they are going to cut supply by 1.2 mb/d,"
Dominic Schnider of UBS Wealth Management told CNBC
. "And demand looks healthy so we might find ourselves into 2019 in a situation where the
market is actually tight."
Don't ,forget John Bolton's late October visit to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia where he
pragmatically refined US priorities for each country including the indication for sanction
waving in respect of South Stream energy. Bolton's tour followed on from a visit to Moscow.
DJT had a 50 minute private meeting with Erdogan at the G20 followed by a further extended
phone call on the 14th December and the final call on the 21st immediately prior to the
Policy announcement. This marks considered policy and unfortunately for the Rojave Kurds
their interest were found wanting in the balance. There will be complementary side deals
involving Iran, Assad, Putin and Netanyahu. There then remains Idlib.
https://www.dailysabah.com/...
https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/...
https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/...
Chinese refineries that used to purchase U.S. oil regularly said they had not resumed buying
due to uncertainty over the outlook for trade relations between Washington and Beijing, as well
as rising freight costs and poor profit-margins for refining in the region.
Costs for shipping U.S. crude to Asia on a supertanker are triple those for Middle eastern
oil, data on Refinitiv Eikon showed.
A senior official with a state oil refinery said his plant had stopped buying U.S. oil from
October and had not booked any cargoes for delivery in the first quarter.
"Because of the great policy uncertainty earlier on, plants have actually readjusted back to
using alternatives to U.S. oil ... they just widened our supply options," he said.
He added that his plant had shifted to replacements such as North Sea Forties crude,
Australian condensate and oil from Russia.
"Maybe teapots will take some cargoes, but the volume will be very limited," said a second
Chinese oil executive, referring to independent refiners. The sources declined to be named
because of company policy.
A sharp souring in Asian benchmark refining margins has also curbed overall demand for crude
in recent months, sources said.
Despite the impasse on U.S. crude purchases, China's crude imports could top a record 45
million tonnes (10.6 million barrels per day) in December from all regions, said Refinitiv
senior oil analyst Mark Tay.
Russia is set to remain the biggest supplier at 7 million tonnes in December, with Saudi
Arabia second at 5.7-6.7 million tonnes, he said.
19 hours ago This is an
economic/political tight rope for both countries. China is the largest auto market in the
world with numerous manufacturers located inside its borders. Apple sales will disappoint
inside China after Meng's arrest over Iran sanctions (Huawei is a world heavy weight in terms
of sales), and this has already begun inside China due to national pride. Canada has already
seen one trade agreement postponed over her detention. US firm on the main have already
issued orders to not have key employees travel to their Chinese plants unless absolutely
necessary for fear of retaliation. Brussels is actively working on a plan to bypass US
Iranian sanctions, which are deeply unpopular in Europe.
The key to this solution might be in automotive. Oil is possibly on the endangered bargaining
list. Russia is a key trading partner (for years) with China and, along with Saudi Arabia and
Iran (or even without Iran) will be able to supply their needs. Our agricultural sector,
particularly in soybeans, has been hit hard, forcing the US govt. into farm subsidies. Brazil
just recorded a record harvest in soybeans. The US could counter with lifting Meng from
arrest in return for an agricultural break, but those negotiations won't make the mainstream
news. Personally, I think her arrest was a very ill-thought move on the part of law
enforcement, as the benefits don't even begin to outweigh the massive retaliation to US firms
operating inside their borders. It is almost akin to arresting Tim Cook of Apple or Apple's
CFO. You don't kill a bug with a sledge hammer.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Saturday said US sanctions will have no
impact on the policies of the Islamic republic at home or abroad.
"It is obvious that we are facing pressure by the US sanctions. But will that lead to a
change in policy? I can assure you it won't," Zarif told the Doha Forum policy conference in
Qatar.
"If there is an art we have perfected in Iran and can teach to others for a price, it is
the art of evading sanctions," he added.
Sanctions typically fail to change regime behavior, and they are even more likely to fail if
there is no practical way for the targeted regime to get out from under sanctions short of
surrender. The more importance that a regime places on the policies that the outside government
wants to change, the greater the likelihood of failure will be. When the outside government's
goals threaten the regime's security or even its very survival, there is no question of making
a deal.
Because the Trump administration is pursuing regime change in all but name, there is no
chance that Iran will yield to U.S. pressure. The administration's demands are so ambitious and
excessive that no self-respecting state could agree to them without giving up its sovereignty
and independence. It should be clear by now that pressure and coercion inspire defiance and
intransigence. If the U.S. wants to see changes in Iranian international behavior, it would
need to provide assurances and incentives that make taking that risk worth their while. Since
this administration has made a point of reneging on commitments already made to Iran, there are
no assurances that it could make that the Iranian government could trust, and the
administration is allergic to offering any incentives to its negotiating partners for fear of
appearing "weak."
Besides that, Saudi Arabia requires the organization to maintain a high level of oil
production due to pressure coming from
Washington to achieve a very low cost per barrel of oil. The US energy strategy targets
Iranian and Russian revenue from oil exports, but it also aims to give the US a speedy economic
boost. Trump often talks about the price of oil falling as his personal victory. The US
imports
about 10 million barrels of oil a day, which is why Trump wrongly believes that a decrease in
the cost per barrel could favor a boost to the US economy. The economic reality shows a strong
correlation
between the price of oil and the financial growth of a country, with low prices of crude oil
often synonymous of a slowing down in the economy.
It must be remembered that to keep oil prices high, OPEC countries are required to maintain
a high rate of production, doubling the damage to themselves. Firstly, they take less income
than expected and, secondly, they deplete their oil reserves to favor the strategy imposed by
Saudi Arabia on OPEC to please the White House. It is clearly a strategy that for a country
like Qatar (and perhaps Venezuela and Iran in the near future) makes little sense, given the
diplomatic and commercial rupture with Riyadh stemming from
tensions between the Gulf countries.
In contrast, the OPEC+ organization, which also includes other countries like the Russian
Federation, Mexico and Kazakhstan, seems to now to determine oil and its cost per barrel. At
the moment, OPEC and Russia have agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day,
contradicting Trump's desire for high oil output.
With this last choice Qatar sends a clear signal to the region and to traditional allies,
moving to the side of OPEC+ and bringing its interests closer in line with those of the Russian
Federation and its all-encompassing oil and gas strategy, two sectors in which Qatar and Russia
dominate market share.
In addition, Russia and Qatar's global strategy also brings together and includes partners
like Turkey (a future
energy hub connecting east and west as well as north and south) and Venezuela. In this
sense, the meeting between
Maduro and Erdogan seems to be a prelude to further reorganization of OPEC and its members.
It's crazy to think of all of the natural gas burned off by the world's oil producers. I
think of those oil platforms that have a huge burning flame on top. This is the kind of ****
that reminds us that the people who control the world care not for the people who live here.
Can't make a buck from it? ******* burn it.
Consider though that those oil producers are only in it for the money; it's not an
avocation with them. I imagine if there was a way to salvage the natural gas, it would be
done. Mo Muny would dictate it.
This could be the beggining of a level 5 popcorn event. It started a year or two ago and
when I saw it everybody laughed. Well look at it now. Saudi wants to defect. They have had
nothing but problems with the House of Sodomy for quite some time now.
If this leads to war in the Persian Gulf Edgar Cayce called it. The empire will burn that
place down before losing it. They may fail but something is going to go down.
Are the Sauds still full heartedly pushing the Zionist mission in Yemen?
As an Iranian-American I have been waiting for something big to happen with Iran. I am
really tired of waiting. I hope that Iran will grow some balls and fight the coalition. I
know that there are 80 million lives in danger, including my mom going back to Iran for a
short term. But this has been like a long torture and unending nightmare.
There is no multipolarity yet, but a bipolar hype of the world dominance run by US and its
vassals. An awakening will be harsh, when these realize their emperor goes naked.
"... Trump won't fire his son-in-law, so if Jared doesn't have the decency to resign on his own, he may well be responsible for Trump's downfall in addition to his own. Trump's silly daughter, Ivanka, needs to go to. ..."
"... Time for Bolton to send for the clairvoyant Theresa May who has managed to accuse Russia, and Mr. Putin personally, in the Skripals' poisoning n the absence of any evidence ..."
Comment section (David Wooten): "According to the crown prince himself, Trump's [Jewish]
son-in-law gave him a secret list of his enemies -- the ones like Al Aweed who were
tortured and shaken down for cash. Khashoggi might even have been on that list.
One or more of the tortured ones likely tipped off Erdogan, which is why Turkey only
needed to enter the consulate, retrieve the recorded audio device they planted, and walk out
with the evidence. Turkey also has evidence that puts MbS' personal doctor and other staff
arriving in Turkey at convenient times to do the job -- and probably more. Khashoggi was
anything but a nice person but Trump cannot say that or he'll likely be accused of
involvement in his murder.
Dissociation is made far more difficult by the fact that Jared is a long time friend of
Netanyahu who, like Jared, hasbefriended MbS .
Trump won't fire his son-in-law, so if Jared doesn't have the decency to resign on his
own, he may well be responsible for Trump's downfall in addition to his own. Trump's silly
daughter, Ivanka, needs to go to.
Were it not for the Khashoggi affair, fewer Republican seats would have been lost in the
election."
-- Time for Bolton to send for the clairvoyant Theresa May who has managed to accuse
Russia, and Mr. Putin personally, in the Skripals' poisoning n the absence of any
evidence .
These people -- Bolton, May, Gavin Williamson and likes -- are a cross of the ever-eager
whores and petty brainless thieves. To expose themselves as the willing participants in the
ZUSA-conducted farce requires a complete lack of integrity.
Of course, there is no way to indict the journalist's murderers since the principal
murderer is a personal friend of Netanyahu and Jared.
Jump, Justice, jump, as high as ordered by the "chosen."
By the way, why do we hear nothing about Seth Rich who was murdered in the most surveilled
city of the US?
@annamaria A 1st
grader can see that MbS was behind the murder of Kashoggi.
Trump won't fire his son-in-law, so if Jared doesn't have the decency to resign on his
own, he may well be responsible for Trump's downfall in addition to his own. Trump's silly
daughter, Ivanka, needs to go to.
I've been hoping for this since they moved to Washington with 'big daddy'.
@Anon " crappy
bedtime reading the woolyheadedness "
Hey, Anon[436], is this how your parents have been treating you? My condolences.
If you feel that you succeeded with your "see, a squirrel" tactics of taking attention
from the zionists' dirty and amoral attempts at coverup of the murder of the journalists
Khashoggi, which was accomplished on the orders of the clown prince (the dear friend of Bibi
& Jared), you are for a disappointment.
One more time for you, Anon[436]: the firm evidence of MbS involvement in the murder of
Khashoggi contrasts with no evidence of the alleged poisoning of Skripals by
Russian government.
The zionists have been showing an amazing tolerance towards the clown prince the murderer
because zionists need the clown prince for the implementation of Oded Yinon Plan for Eretz
Israel.
The stinky Skripals' affair involves harsh economic actions imposed on the RF in the
absence of any evidence , as compared to no sanctions in response to the actual murder
of Khashoggi, which involved MbS according to the availableevidence . Thanks
to the zionists friendship with the clown prince, the firm evidence of Khashoggi murder is of
no importance. What else could be expected from the "most moral" Bibi & Kushner and the
treasonous Bolton.
The stinky Skripals' affair involves harsh economic actions imposed on the RF in the
absence of any evidence, as compared to no sanctions in response to the actual murder of
Khashoggi, which involved MbS according to the available evidence. Thanks to the zionists
friendship with the clown prince, the firm evidence of Khashoggi murder is of no
importance. What else could be expected from the "most moral" Bibi & Kushner and the
treasonous Bolton.
This article is from May 2018 but it read as if it was written yesterday.
Notable quotes:
"... He estimates that sanctions will cut Iran's exports by up to 500,000 barrels a day later this year. "It could well be much more in 2019," he said. ..."
"U.S. political pressure is clearly a dominant factor at this OPEC meeting, limiting the scope of Saudi actions to rebalance the
market," said Gary Ross, chief executive of Black Gold Investors and a veteran OPEC watcher.
channelnewsasia.com 10 May 2018
Donald Trump could hardly have chosen a more treacherous economic moment to tear up the "decaying and rotten deal" with Iran.
The world crude market is already tightening very fast. Joint production curbs by Opec and Russia have cleared the four-year glut
of oil. There is no longer an ample safety buffer against supply shocks. The geopolitical "premium" on prices has returned. Tensions
run high:
The Maduro regime in Venezuela is entering its last agonies, and the country's oil industry is imploding. North America has run
into an infrastructure crunch. There are not yet enough pipelines to keep pace with shale oil output from the Permian Basin of west
Texas, and it is much the same story in the Alberta tar sands. The prospect of losing several hundred thousand barrels a day of Iranian
oil exports would not have mattered much a year ago. It certainly matters now.
World leaders respond to President Trump's move to reimpose economic sanctions on Iran while pulling the United States out of
the international agreement aimed at stopping Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.
Oil price shock is looming
It is the confluence of simmering political crises in so many places that has driven Brent crude to $US77 a barrel, up 60 per
cent since last June. "We believe an oil price shock is looming as early as 2019 as several elements combine to form a 'perfect storm',"
said Westbeck Capital. It predicts $US100 crude in short order, with $US150 coming into sight as the world faces a crunch all too
reminiscent of July 2008. The fund warns that the investment collapse since 2014 is about to deliver its sting. Declining fields
are not being replaced. Output from conventional projects has until now been rising but will fall precipitously by 1.5 million barrels
a day next year. By then global spare capacity will be down to a lethally thin 1 per cent. US shale cannot plug the gap. "The mantra
after 2014 of lower for longer has lulled oil analysts into a torpor," Westbeck said. Needless to say, a spike to $US150 would precipitate
a global recession.
The US might hope to weather such a traumatic episode now that it is the world's biggest oil producer but it would be fatal for oil-starved
Europe. Such a scenario would test the unreformed euro to destruction. Britain, France and Germany may earnestly wish to preserve
the Iran deal but they can do little against US financial hegemony and the ferocity of "secondary sanctions". The US measures cover
shipping, insurance, and the gamut of financial and logistical support for Iran's oil industry.
In the end, there are infinitely greater matters at stake than barrels of oil.
Any European or Asian company that falls foul of this will be shut out of the US capital markets and dollarised international payments
system. The EU has talked of
beefing up the 1996 Blocking Regulation used to shield European companies from extraterritorial US sanctions against Libya. But
this is just bluster. No European company with operations in the US would dare flout the US Treasury. "A choice for corporate Europe
between the US and Iran is unequivocally going to fall the way of the US," said Richard Robinson from Ashburton Global Energy Fund.
Rise in oil prices turns malign
He said Europe will have to slash its imports from Iran by 60 per cent because groups such as ENI or Total will refuse to ship
the oil, whatever the strategic policy of the EU purports to be. This dooms the nuclear deal (JCPOA) since Iran will not abide by
the terms if the EU cannot deliver on its rhetoric, let alone come through with the $US200 billion ($251 billion) of foreign investment
coveted by Tehran.
David Fyfe from oil traders Gunvor said we do not yet have enough details from Washington to judge how quickly companies will
have to act. He estimates that sanctions will cut Iran's exports by up to 500,000 barrels a day later this year. "It could well
be much more in 2019," he said.
Late last year it was still possible to view rising oil prices as benign, the result of a booming world economy. This year it
has turned malign. Global growth has rolled over. The broad IHS index of raw materials has been falling since February.
Europe's catch-up spurt fizzled out in the first quarter. Japan's GDP probably contracted. The higher oil price is itself part
of the cause.
$US500 billion extra 'tax'
Even at current levels, it acts as an extra $US500 billion "tax" this year for consumers in Asia, Europe and America. Not all
of the windfall enjoyed by the petro-powers is recycled quickly back into global spending.
One cause of the slowdown is the credit squeeze in China, which is ineluctably feeding through into the real economy with a delay.
Proxy indicators suggest that true growth has fallen below 5 per cent.
My own view is that monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve - and declining stimulus from the European Central Bank - is
doing more damage than widely presumed.
Higher US interest rates are pushing up borrowing costs for much of the world. Three-month dollar Libor rates used to price $US9
trillion of global contracts have risen 76 basis points since January.
The Fed is shrinking its balance sheet, draining international dollar liquidity at a quickening pace. If the Fed is not careful,
it will tip the US economy into a stall.
Ominously, we are seeing the first signs of a US dollar rally, tantamount to a "short squeeze" on Turkey, Argentina and Indonesia,
among other emerging market debtors.
Toxic combination
The combination of a slowing economy and an oil supply shock is toxic, even if the "energy intensity" of world GDP is now half
the level of 30 years ago.
Opec and Russia can of course lift their output cap at any time, though that alone will not restore the full 1.8m barrels a day
of original curbs. Venezuela is now in unstoppable free-fall.
The Saudis have pledged to uphold the "stability of oil markets" and to help "mitigate the impact of any potential supply shortages".
Kuwait and Abu Dhabi could add a little. Yet cyclical forces may be moving even beyond their control.
In the end, there are infinitely greater matters at stake than barrels of oil. Trump is throwing US power behind Saudi Arabia
in the epic Sunni-Shia battle for dominance over the Middle East, and behind Israel in its separate battle with Iran.
What can go wrong?
Both conflicts are on a hair trigger. Israel attacked an Iranian air base in Syria last month and killed
seven revolutionary guards. This is a dangerous escalation from proxy conflict to direct hostilities. The JCPOA nuclear deal may
be all that restrains the Iranian side from lashing out.
Saudi Arabia's impetuous young leader Mohammad bin Salman is itching to settle the score of all scores with Iran, the Iranian
revolutionary guard are in turn itching to launch a one-year dash for nuclear weapons, and Trump is itching for regime change. What
can go wrong?
"... Everyone knows it's the US presence in the Middle East which creates terrorists, both as proxies of and in resistance to the US imperial presence (and often one and then the other). So reading Orwellian language, Pompeo is saying the US wants to maximize Islamic terrorism in order to provide a pretext for creeping totalitarianism at home and abroad. ..."
"... The real reason is to maintain the petrodollar system, but there seems to be a conspiracy of silence never to mention it among both supporters and opponents of Trump. ..."
"... everyone knows why the usa is in the middle east.. to support the war industry, which is heavily tied to the financial industry.. up is down and down is up.. that is why the usa is great friends with ksa and israel and a sworn enemy of iran... what they don't say is they are a sworn enemy of humanity and the thought that the world can continue with their ongoing madness... ..."
"... The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF ..."
Trump also floated the idea of removing U.S. troops from the Middle East, citing the lower price of oil as a reason to withdraw.
"Now, are we going to stay in that part of the world? One reason to is Israel ," Trump said. "Oil is becoming less and less
of a reason because we're producing more oil now than we've ever produced. So, you know, all of a sudden it gets to a point
where you don't have to stay there."
It is only Israel, it is no longer the oil, says Trump. But the nuclear armed Israel does not need U.S. troops for its protection.
And if it is no longer the oil, why is the U.S. defending the Saudis?
Trump's Secretary of State Mike Pompeo disagrees with his boss. In a Wall Street journal op-ed today he claims that
The U.S.-Saudi Partnership
Is Vital because it includes much more then oil:
[D]egrading U.S.-Saudi ties would be a grave mistake for the national security of the U.S. and its allies.
The kingdom is a powerful force for stability in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is working to secure Iraq's fragile democracy
and keep Baghdad tethered to the West's interests, not Tehran's. Riyadh is helping manage the flood of refugees fleeing Syria's
civil war by working with host countries, cooperating closely with Egypt, and establishing stronger ties with Israel. Saudi
Arabia has also contributed millions of dollars to the U.S.-led effort to fight Islamic State and other terrorist organizations.
Saudi oil production and economic stability are keys to regional prosperity and global energy security.
Where and when please has Saudi Arabia "managed the flood of refugees fleeing Syria's civil war". Was that when it
emptied its jails of violent criminals and sent them to wage jihad against the Syrian people? That indeed 'managed' to push
millions to flee from their homes.
Saudi Arabia might be many things but "a powerful force for stability" it is not. Just ask 18 million Yemenis who, after years
of Saudi bombardment, are near to death for lack of
food .
Pompeo's work for the Saudi dictator continued today with a Senate briefing on Yemen. The Senators will soon vote on a resolution
to end the U.S. support for the war. In his prepared remarks Pompeo wrote:
The suffering in Yemen grieves me, but if the United States of America was not involved in Yemen, it would be a hell of a lot
worse.
What could be worse than a famine that threatens two third of the population?
If the U.S. and Britain would not support the Saudis and Emirates the war would end within a day or two. The Saudi and UAE
planes are maintained by U.S. and British specialists. The Saudis still
seek 102 more U.S. military personal to
take care of their planes. It would be easy for the U.S. to stop such recruiting of its veterans.
It is the U.S. that
holds up an already
watered down UN Security Council resolution that calls for a ceasefire in Yemen:
The reason for the delay continues to be a White House worry about angering Saudi Arabia, which strongly opposes the resolution,
multiple sources say. CNN reported earlier this month that the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, "threw a fit" when
presented with an early draft of the document, leading to a delay and further discussions among Western allies on the matter.
There is really nothing in Trump's list on which the Saudis consistently followed through. His alliance with MbS brought him
no gain and a lot of trouble.
Trump protected MbS from the consequences of murdering Jamal Khashoggi. He hoped to gain leverage with that. But that is not
how MbS sees it. He now knows that Trump will not confront him no matter what he does. If MbS "threws a fit" over a UN Security
Council resolution, the U.S. will drop it. When he launches his next 'adventure', the U.S. will again cover his back. Is this
the way a super power is supposed to handle a client state?
If Trump's instincts really tell him that U.S. troops should be removed from the Middle East and Afghanistan, something I doubt,
he should follow them. Support for the Saudi war on Yemen will not help to achieve that. Pandering to MbS is not MAGA.
Posted by b on November 28, 2018 at 03:12 PM |
Permalink
Comments Pompeo: "Saudi Arabia has also contributed millions of dollars to the U.S.-led effort to fight Islamic State and other
terrorist organizations."
Everyone knows it's the US presence in the Middle East which creates terrorists, both as proxies of and in resistance to
the US imperial presence (and often one and then the other). So reading Orwellian language, Pompeo is saying the US wants to maximize
Islamic terrorism in order to provide a pretext for creeping totalitarianism at home and abroad.
The real reason is to maintain the petrodollar system, but there seems to be a conspiracy of silence never to mention it among
both supporters and opponents of Trump.
There is really nothing in Trump's list on which the Saudis consistently followed through. His alliance with MbS brought him
no gain and a lot of trouble.
He did get to fondle the orb - although fuck knows what weirdness was really going on there.
thanks b... pompeo is a very bad liar... in fact - everything he says is about exactly the opposite, but bottom line is he is
a bad liar as he is thoroughly unconvincing..
everyone knows why the usa is in the middle east.. to support the war industry, which is heavily tied to the financial
industry.. up is down and down is up.. that is why the usa is great friends with ksa and israel and a sworn enemy of iran... what
they don't say is they are a sworn enemy of humanity and the thought that the world can continue with their ongoing madness...
oh, but don't forget to vote, LOLOL.... no wonder so many are strung out on drugs, and the pharma industry... opening up to
the msm is opening oneself up to the world george orwell described many years ago...
Take a wafer or two of silicon and just add water. The oil obsession has been eclipsed and within 20 years will be in absolute
disarray. The warmongers will invent new excuses.
A hypothetical: No extraordinary amounts of hydrocarbons exist under Southwest Asian ground; just an essential amount for domestic
consumption; in that case, would Zionistan exist where it's currently located and would either Saudi Arabia, Iraq and/or Iran
have any significance aside from being consumers of Outlaw US Empire goods? Would the Balfour Declaration and the Sykes/Picot
Secret Treaty have been made? If the Orinoco Oil Belt didn't exist, would Venezuela's government be continually targeted for Imperial
control? If there was no Brazilian offshore oil, would the Regime Change effort have been made there? Here the hypotheticals end
and a few basic yet important questions follow.
Previous to the 20th Century, why were Hawaii and Samoa wrested from their native residents and annexed to Empire? In what
way did the lowly family farmers spread across 19th Century United States further the growth of its Empire and contribute to the
above named annexations? What was the unspoken message sent to US elites contained within Frederic Jackson Turner's 1893 Frontier
Thesis ? Why is the dominant language of North America English, not French or Spanish?
None of these are rhetorical. All second paragraph questions I asked of my history students. And all have a bearing on b's
fundamental question.
b says, "And it its no longer the oil, why is the U.S. defending the Saudis?"
The US has a vital interest in protecting the narrative of 9/11. The Saudis supplied the patsies. Mossad and dual-citizen neocons
were the architects of the event. Hence, the US must avoid a nasty divorce from the Saudis. The Saudis are in a perfect blackmailing
position.
Of course, most Americans have no idea that the U.S. Shale Oil Industry is nothing more than a Ponzi Scheme because of the
mainstream media's inability to report FACT from FICTION. However, they don't deserve all of the blame as the shale energy
industry has done an excellent job hiding the financial distress from the public and investors by the use of highly technical
jargon and BS.
S.A. is a thinly disguised US military base, hence the "strategic importance" and the relevance of the new Viceroy's previous
experience as a Four Star General. It's doubtful that any of the skilled personnel in the SA Air Force are other than former US/Nato.
A few princes might fancy themselves to be daring fighter pilots. In case of a Anglo-Zio war with Iran SA would be the most forward
US aircraft carrier. The Empire is sustained by its presumed military might and prizes nothing more than its strategically situated
bases. Saud would like to capture Yemen's oil fields, but the primary purpose of the air war is probably training. That of course
is more despicably cynical than mere conquest and genocide.
Trump is the ultimate deceiver/liar. Great actor reading from a script. The heel in the Fake wrestling otherwise known as US politics.
It almost sounds as if he is calling for an end of anymore significant price drops now that he has got Powell on board to limit
interest rate hikes. After all if you are the worlds biggest producer you dont want prices too low. These markets are all manipulated.
I cant imagine how much insider trading is going on. If you look at the oil prices, they started dropping in October with Iran
sanctions looming (before it was announced irans shipments to its 8 biggest buyers would be exempt) and at the height of the Khashoggi
event where sanctions were threatened and Saudi was making threats of their own. In a real free market prices increase amidst
supply uncertainty.
Regardless of what he says he wants and gets now, he is already planning a reversal. Thats how the big boys win, they know
whats coming and when the con the smaller fish to swim one way they are lined up with a big mouth wide open. Controlled chaos
and confusion. For every winner there must be a loser and the losers assets/money are food for the Gods of Money and War
As for pulling out of the Middle East Bibi must have had a good laugh. My money is on the US to be in Yemen to protect them
from the Saudis (humanitarian) and Iranian backed Houthis while in reality we will be there to secure the enormous oil fields
in the North. Perhaps this was what the Khashoggi trap was all about. The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to
deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF
@ Pft who wrote: "The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order
to feed international finance/IMF"
BINGO!!! Those that control finance control most/all of everything else.
Saudi Arabia literally owns close to 8% of the United States economy through various financial instruments. Their public investment
funds and dark pools own large chunks from various strategic firms resting at the apex of western power such as Blackstone. Trump
and Pompeo would be stupid to cut off their nose to spite their face... It's all about the petrodollar, uncle sam will ride and
die with saudi barbaria. If push comes to shove and the saudis decide to untether themselves from the Empire, their sand kingdom
will probably be partitioned.
The oil certainly still plays an important role, the u.s. cannot maintain the current frack oil output for long. For Tronald's
term in office it will suffice, but hardly longer. (The frack gas supplies are much more substantial.)
Personal interests certainly also play a role, and finally one should not make u.s. foreign policy more rational than it is.
Much is also done because of traditions and personal convictions. Often they got it completely wrong and the result was a complete
failure.
Let us watch what Trump does with this or if the resolution makes it to daylight:
Senate advances Yemen resolution in rebuke to Trump
The Senate issued a sharp rebuke Wednesday to President Trump, easily advancing a resolution that would end U.S. military support
for the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen's civil war despite a White House effort to quash the bill.
The administration launched an eleventh-hour lobbying frenzy to try to head off momentum for the resolution, dispatching
Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Capitol Hill in the morning and issuing a veto threat
less than an hour before the vote started.
But lawmakers advanced the resolution, 63-37, even as the administration vowed to stand by Saudi Arabia following outcry
over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
"There's been a lot of rhetoric that's come from the White House and from the State Department on this issue," said Sen.
Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. "The rhetoric that I've heard and the broadcasts that we've
made around the world as to who we are have been way out of balance as it relates to American interests and American values."
[/] LINK
TheHill
But Mattis says there is no smoking gun to tie the Clown Thug-Prince to Kashoggi's killing.
TheHill
And Lyias @ 2 is a bingo. Always follow the fiat.
Soon, without any announcements, if they wish to maintain selling oil to China, KSA will follow Qatar. It will be priced in
Yuan...especially given the escalating U.S. trade war with China.
2019 holds interesting times. Order a truckload of popcorn.
Midwest For Truth , Nov 28, 2018 7:29:46 PM |
link
You would have to have your head buried in the sand to not see that the Saudi "Kings" are crypto-Zionistas. Carl Sagan once said,
"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle.
We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even
to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back." And Mark Twain also
wrote "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."
Gee, not one taker amongst all these intelligent folk. From last to first: 1588's Protestant Wind allowed Elizabeth and her cronies
to literally keep their heads as Nature helped Drake defeat the Spanish Armada; otherwise, there would be no British Empire root
to the USA, thus no USA and no future Outlaw US Empire, the British Isles becoming a Hapsburg Imperial Property, and a completely
different historical lineage, perhaps sans World Wars and atomic weapons.
Turner's message was with the Frontier closed the "safety valve" of continental expansion defusing political tensions based
on economic inequalities had ceased to be of benefit and future policy would need to deal with that issue thus removing the Fear
Factor from the natives to immigrants, and from wide-open spaces to the inner cities. Whipsawing business cycles driving urban
labor's unrest, populist People's Party politics, and McKinley's 1901 assassination further drove his points home.
Nationwide, family farmers demanded Federal government help to create additional markets for their produce to generate price
inflation so they could remain solvent and keep their homesteads, which translated into the need to conduct international commerce
via the seas which required coaling stations--Hawaii and Samoa, amongst others--and a Blue Water Navy that eventually led to Alfred
T. Mahan's doctrine of Imperial Control of the Oceans still in use today.
As with Gengis Khan's death in 1227 that stopped the Mongol expansion to the English Channel that changed the course of European
history, and what was seen as the Protestant Wind being Divine Intervention, global history has several similar inflection points
turning the tide from one path to another. We don't know yet if the Outlaw US Empire's reliance on Saudi is such, but we can see
it turning from being a great positive to an equally potential great negative for the Empire--humanity as a whole, IMO, will benefit
greatly from an implosion and the relationship becoming a Great Negative helping to strip what remains of the Emperor's Clothing
from his torso so that nations and their citizens can deter the oncoming financialized economic suicide caused by massive debt
and climate chaos.
Vico's circle is about to intersect with Hegel's dialectic and generate a new temporal phase in human history. Although many
will find it hard to tell, the current direction points to a difficult change to a more positive course for humanity as a whole,
but it's also possible that disaster could strike with humanity's total or near extinction being the outcome--good arguments can
be made for either outcome, which ought to unsettle everyone: Yes, the times are that tenuous. But then, I'm merely a lonely historian
aware of a great many things, including the pitfall inherent in trying to predict future events.
"The suffering in Yemen grieves me, but if the United States of America was not involved in Yemen, it would be a hell of a lot
worse." And I'll bet Pompeo said that with a straight face, too. lmfao
And as for "...keep[ing] Baghdad tethered to the West's interests and not Tehran's," I'm guessing the "secretary" would have
us all agree "yeah, fk Iraqi sovereignty anyway. Besides, it's not like they share a border with Iran, or anything. Oh,
wait..."
p.s. Many thanks for all you have contributed to collective knowledge, b; I will be contacting you about making a contribution
by snail mail (I hate PayPal, too).
"... a powerful force for stability in the Middle East."
"Instability" more like it.
Paid for military coup in Egypt. Funding anti-Syrian terrorists. Ongoing tensions with Iran. Zip-all for the Palestinians.
WTF in Yemen. Wahhabi crazy sh_t (via Mosque building) across Asia. Head and hand chopping Friday specials the norm -- especially
of their South-Asian slave classes. Ok, so females can now drive cars -- woohoo. A family run business venture manipulating the
global oil trade and supporting US-petro-$ hegemony recently out of goat herding and each new generation 'initiated' in some Houston
secret society toe-touching shower and soap ceremonies before placement in the ruling hierarchy back home. But enough; they being
Semites makes it an offence to criticize in some 'free' democratic world domains.
Instead of the "rebuke to Trump" meme circulating around, I found
this statement to be more accurate:
"'Cutting off military aid to Saudi Arabia is the right choice for Yemen, the right choice for our national security, and the
right choice for upholding the Constitution,' Paul Kawika Martin, senior director for policy and political affairs at Peace Action,
declared in a statement. ' Three years ago, the notion of Congress voting to cut off military support for Saudi Arabia would
have been politically laughable .'" [My Emphasis]
In other words, advancing Peace with Obama as POTUS wasn't going to happen, so this vote ought to be seen as an attack on Obama's
legacy as it's his policy that's being reconsidered and hopefully discontinued.
Trump, Israel and the Sawdi's. US no longer needs middle east oil for strategic supply. Trump is doing away with the petro-dollar
as that scam has run its course and maintenance is higher than returns. Saudi and other middle east oil is required for global
energy dominance.
Energy dominance, lebensraum for Israel and destroying the current Iran are all objectives that fit into one neat package.
Those plans look to be coming apart at the moment so it remains to be seen how fanatical Trump is on Israel and MAGA. MAGA
as US was at the collapse of the Soviet Union.
As for pulling out of the Middle East Bibi must have had a good laugh. Remember when he said he wanted out of Syria. My money
is on the US to be in Yemen before too long to protect them from the Saudis (humanitarian) and Iranian backed Houthis, while in
reality it will be to secure the enormous oil fields in the North. Perhaps this was what the Khashoggi trap was all about.
The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international
finance/IMF .
@16 karlof1.. thanks for a broader historical perspective which you are able to bring to moa.. i enjoy reading your comments..
i don't have answers to ALL your questions earlier.. i have answers for some of them... you want to make it easy on us uneducated
folks and give us less questions, like b did in his post here, lol.... cheers james
The US Senate has advanced a measure to withdraw American support for a Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen.
In a blow to President Donald Trump, senators voted 63-37 to take forward a motion on ending US support.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary Jim Mattis had urged Senators not to back the motion, saying it would
worsen the situation in Yemen.
...
The vote in the Senate means further debate on US support for Saudi Arabia is expected next week.
However, correspondents say that even if the Senate ultimately passes the bipartisan resolution it has little chance of
being approved by the outgoing House of Representatives.
That is quite a slap for the Trump administration. It will have little consequences in the short term (or for Yemen) but it sets
a new direction in foreign polices towards the Saudis.
Pompeo is a Deep State Israel-firster with a nasty neocon agenda. It is to Trump's disgrace that he chose Pompeo and the abominable
Bolton. At least Trump admits the ME invasions are really about Israel.
Take a look at some of the - informed - comments below the vid to which you linked. Then think again about an 'all electric
civilisation within a few years'. Yes, and Father Christmas will be providing everything that everyone in the world needs for
a NAmerican/European standard of living within the same time frame. Er - not.
'Renewables' are not going to save hitech industrial 'civilisation' from The Long Descent/Catabolic Collapse (qv). Apart from
any other consideration - and there are some other equally intractable ones - there is no - repeat NO - 'renewable' energy system
which doesn't rely crucially on energy subsidies from the fossil-hydrocarbon fuels, both to build it and to maintain it. They're
not stand-alone, self-bootstrapping technologies. Nor is there any realistic prospect that they ever will be. Fully renewable-power
hitech industrial civilisation is a non-deliverable mirage which is just drawing us ever further into the desert of irreversible
peak-energy/peak-everythig-else.
@16 karlof1. I also find your historical references very interesting. We do indeed seem to be at a very low point in the material
cycle, it will reverse in due course as is its want, hopefully we will live to see a positive change in humanity.
For example we know Tesla didn't succeed in splitting the planet in half, the way techno-psychotics fantasize. As for that
silly link, how typical of techno-wingnuts to respond to prosaic physical facts with fantasies. Anything to prop up faith in the
technocratic-fundamentalist religion. Meanwhile "electrical civilization" has always meant and will always mean fracking and coal,
until the whole fossil-fueled extreme energy nightmare is over.
Given the proven fact that the extreme energy civilization has done nothing but embark upon a campaign to completely destroy
humanity and the Earth (like in your Tesla fantasy), why would a non-psychopath want to prop it up anyway?
It is still the oil, even for the US. The Persian Gulf supplies 20% of world consumption, and Western Europe gets 40% of its oil
from OPEC countries, most of that from the Gulf. Even the US still imports 10% of its total consumption.
Peter AU 1 | Nov 28, 2018 9:44:50 PM | 20
b | Nov 29, 2018 2:33:04 AM | 23
USD as a world reserve currency could be one factor between the important ones. With non US support the saud land could crash
under neighbours pressure, that caos may be not welcomed.
Humble people around where I live have mentioned that time is speeding up its velocity; there seems to be a spiritual (evolutionary)/physical
interface effect or something...
Tolstoy, in the long theory-of-history exposition at the end of War and Peace, challenges 'the great man' of History idea,
spreading in his time, at the dawning of the so-called: European Romantic period of Beethoven, Goerte and Wagner, when
the unique person was glorified in the name of art, truth, whatever (eventually this bubble burst too, in the 20th C. and IMO
because of too much fervent worship in the Cult of the Temple of the Money God. Dostoyevki's great Crime and Punishment is all
about this issue.)
Tolstoy tries to describe a scientifically-determined historical process, dissing the 'great man of History' thesis. He was
thinking of Napoleon Bonaparte of course, the run-away upstart repulican, anathema to the established order. Tolstoy describes
it in the opening scene of the novel: a fascinating parlor-room conversation between a "liberal" woman of good-birth in the elite
circles of society and a military captain at the party.
...only tenuously relevant to karlofi1's great post touching upon the Theory of History as such; thanks.
Now as to the question: ¿Why is Trump supporting Saudi Arabia? Let me think about that...
"... "The 10 Bcm/year into Europe is not a game-changer from a volume point of view, but it is a game-changer from a new source of product into mainland Europe perspective and it can be expanded." ..."
"... Meanwhile, however, Russia and Turkey are building another pipeline, Turkish Stream, that will supply gas to Turkey and Eastern Europe, as well as possibly Hungary. The two recently marked the completion of its subsea section. Turkish Stream will have two lines, each able to carry up to 15.75 billion cubic meters. One will supply the Turkish market and the other European countries. ..."
"... In this context, the Southern Gas Corridor seems to have more of a political rather than practical significance for the time being , giving Europe the confidence that it could at some future point import a lot more Caspian gas because the infrastructure is there. ..."
The Southern Gas Corridor on which the European Union is pinning most of its hopes for
natural gas supply diversification away from Russia is coming along nicely and will not just be
on schedule, but it will come with a price tag that is US$5-billion lower than the original
budget , BP's vice president in charge of the project
told S&P Global Platts this week.
"Often these kinds of mega-projects fall behind schedule. But the way the projects have
maintained the schedule has meant that your traditional overspend, or utilization of
contingency, has not occurred," Joseph Murphy said, adding that savings had been the top
priority for the supermajor.
The Southern Gas Corridor will carry natural gas from the Azeri Shah Deniz 2 field in the
Caspian Sea to Europe via a network of three pipelines : the Georgia South Caucasus Pipeline,
which was recently expanded and can carry 23 billion cubic meters of gas; the TANAP pipeline
via Turkey, with a peak capacity of 31 billion cubic meters annually; and the Trans-Adriatic
Pipeline, or TAP, which will link with TANAP at the Turkish-Greek border and carry 10 billion
cubic meters of gas annually to Italy.
TANAP was
commissioned in July this year and the first phase of TAP is expected to be completed in
two years, so Europe will hopefully have more non-Russian gas at the start of the new decade.
But not that much, at least initially: TANAP will operate at an initial capacity of 16 billion
cubic meters annually, of which 6 billion cubic meters will be supplied to Turkey and the
remainder will go to Europe. In the context of total natural gas demand of 564 billion cubic
meters in 2020, according to a forecast from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies released
earlier this year, this is not a lot.
Yet at some point the TANAP will reach its full capacity and hopefully by that time, TAP
will be completed. Surprisingly, it was the branch to Italy that proved the most challenging,
and BP's Murphy acknowledged that. While Turkey built TANAP on time to the surprise of the
project operator, TAP has been struggling because of legal issues and uncertainty after the new
Italian government entered office earlier this year.
At the time, the government of Giuseppe Conte said the pipeline was pointless but, said
Murphy, since then he has accepted the benefits the infrastructure would offer, such as transit
fees. And yet local opposition in southern Italy remains strong but BP still sees first
deliveries of gas through Italy in 2020.
The BP executive admitted that at first the Southern Gas Corridor wouldn't make a
splash.
"The 10 Bcm/year into Europe is not a game-changer from a volume point of view, but it is
a game-changer from a new source of product into mainland Europe perspective and it can be
expanded."
Meanwhile, however, Russia and Turkey are building another pipeline, Turkish Stream, that
will supply gas to Turkey and Eastern Europe, as well as possibly Hungary. The two recently
marked the completion of its subsea section. Turkish Stream will have two lines, each able to
carry up to 15.75 billion cubic
meters. One will supply the Turkish market and the other European countries.
In this context, the Southern Gas Corridor seems to have more of a political rather than
practical significance for the time being , giving Europe the confidence that it could at some
future point import a lot more Caspian gas because the infrastructure is there.
Comments while mostly naive, are indicative for the part of the US society that elected Trump
and that Trump betrayed.
But the fact that gas went not to Europe, but to Turkey is pretty indicative. And even larger volume with go to China. At some
point Europe might lose part or all Russia gas supply as Russian gas reserved are not infinite. That the perspective EU leaders
are afraid of.
US shale gas is OK as long as the USA is supplied from Canada, Russia and other places as well. Some quantity can be
exported. But the USA can't be a large and stable gas supplier to Europe as shale gas is capital intensive and sweet spots
are limited.
Notable quotes:
"... Some worthy observations, especially with all the US "Think Tanks." But I would include the number of non-Jewish elites who have banded together with the Jewish elite and who have greatly aided in eating out the very heart of America. ..."
"... History also shows that ANY smaller entity (Israel) that depends on a larger entity (America) for its survival becomes a failed entity in the long run. Just saying. ..."
"... The American Empire is all cost and no benefit to the great majority of Americans. The MIC and that's it. Politicians on the right wave the flag and politicians on the left describe a politically correct future. All on our dime. ..."
While the Trump Administration still thinks it can play enough games to derail the
Nordstream 2 pipeline via sanctions and threats, the impotence of its position geopolitically
was on display the other day as the final pipe of the first train of the Turkstream pipeline
entered the waters of the Black Sea.
The pipe was sanctioned by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan who shared a public stage and held bilateral talks afterwards. I think it is
important for everyone to watch the response to Putin's speech in its entirety. Because it
highlights just how far Russian/Turkish relations have come since the November 24th, 2015
incident where Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 over Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/TkFR25SArYM
When you contrast this event with the strained and uninspired interactions between Erdogan
and President Trump you realize that the world is moving forward despite the seeming power of
the United States to derail events.
And Turkey is the key player in the region, geographically, culturally and politically.
Erdogan and Putin know this. And they also know that Turkey being the transit corridor of
energy for Eastern Europe opens those countries up to economic and political power they haven't
enjoyed in a long time.
The first train of Turkstream will serve Turkey directly. Over the next couple of years the
second train will be built which will serve as a jumping off point for bringing gas to Eastern
and Southern Europe.
Turkstream will bring 15.75 bcm annually to Turkey and the second train that same amount to
Europe. The TAP – Trans Adriatic Pipeline -- will bring just 10 bcm annually and won't do
so before 2020, a project more than six years in the making.
Political Realities
The real story behind Turkstream, however, is, despite Putin's protestations to the
contrary, political. No project of this size is purely economic, even if it makes immense
economic sense. If that were the case then the STC wouldn't exist because it makes zero
economic sense but some, if not much, political sense.
No, this pipeline along with the other major energy projects between Russia and Turkey have
massive long-term political implications for the Middle East. Erdogan wants to re-take control
of the Islamic world from the Saudis.
This is why they have the Saudis on a residual-poison-type drip
feed of information relating to the death of Jamal Khashoggi to extract maximal value from
the situation as Erdogan plays the U.S. deep state against the Trump/Mohammed bin Salman (MbS)
alliance.
The U.S. deep state wants Trump weakened and MbS removed from power. Trump needs MbS to
advance his plans for securing Israel's future and prolong the dollar's long-term health.
Erdogan is using this rift to extract concessions left and right while continuing to do
whatever he wants to do vis a vis Syria, Iran and his growing partnership with Russia.
Erdogan is in a position now to drive a very hard bargain over U.S. involvement in Syria,
which neither faction in the U.S. government (Trump and the deep state) wants to give up
on.
By controlling the oil fields in the eastern part of Syria and blocking the roads leading
from Iraq the U.S. is playing a game it can't win because ultimately the Kurds will either have
to be betrayed by the U.S. to keep Erdogan happy or cut a deal with the Syrian government for
their future alienating the U.S.
This has been the ultimate end-game of the occupation of eastern Syria for months now and
time is on both Putin's and Erdogan's side. Because the U.S. can't pressure Turkey to stop
growing closer to Russia and Iran.
Eventually the U.S. troops in Syria will be nothing more than an albatross around Trump's
neck politically and he'll have to announce a pull out, which will be popular back home helping
his re-election campaign for 2020.
The big loser in this is Israel who is now having to circle the wagons politically since
Putin put the screws to Benjamin Netanyahu for his part in the deaths of 15 Russian airmen back
in September by closing the Syrian airspace and allowing mostly free movement of materiel to
Lebanon.
Netanyahu, as I talked about last week, is now in a very precarious position after Israel
was forced to sue for peace thanks to the unprecedentedly strong response by the Palestinians
in Gaza.
Elijah Magnier commented
recently that it this was the net result of Trump's unconditional support of Israel which
united the Arab resistance rather than dividing and conquering it.
But the US establishment decided to distance itself from the Palestinian cause and
embraced unconditionally the Israeli apartheid policy towards Palestine: the US supports
Israel blindly. It has recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, suspended financial aid
to UN institutions supporting Palestinian refugees (schools, medical care, homes), and
rejected the right of return of Palestinians. All this has pushed various Palestinian groups,
including the Palestinian Authority, to acknowledge that any negotiation with Israel is
useless and that also the US can no longer be considered a reliable partner. Moreover, the
failed regime-change in Syria and the humiliating conditions place on Arab financial support
were in a way the last straws that convinced Hamas to change its position, giving up on the
Oslo agreement and joining the Axis of the Resistance.
Project Netanyahu,
as Alistair Crooke termed it , was predicated on keeping the support of the Palestinians
split with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority at odds and then grinding out the resistance in
Gaza over time.
Trump's plans also involved the formation of the so-called "Arab NATO" the summit for which
has been put off until next year thanks to Erdogan's deft handling of the Saudi hit on
Khashoggi. There are still a number of issues outstanding -- the financial blockade of Qatar,
the war in Yemen, etc. -- that need to be resolved as well before any of this is even remotely
possible.
At this point that plan has failed and the clash with Israel last week proved it is
unworkable without tacit approval of Turkey who is gunning for the Saudis as the leaders of the
Sunni world.
Show me the Money
But, more importantly, over time, a Turkey that can ween itself off the U.S. dollar over the
next decade is a Turkey that can survive politically the upheaval to the post-WWII
institutional order coming over the next few years.
Remember, all of this is happening against the backdrop of a U.S. and European political
order that is failing to maintain the confidence of the people it governs.
The road to dollar independence will be long and hard but it will be possible. Russia is the
model for this having successfully removed the dollar from a great deal of its trade and is now
reaping the benefits of that stability.
And projects like Turkstream and the soon to be completed Power of Siberia Pipeline to China
will see the gas from both trade without the dollar as the intermediary.
If you don't think this de-dollarization of the Russian economy is happening or significant,
take one look at the Russian ruble versus the price of Brent crude in recent weeks. We've had
another historic collapse in oil prices and yet the ruble versus the dollar hasn't really moved
at all.
The upward move from earlier this year in the ruble (not shown) came from disruptions in the
Aluminum market and the threat of further sanctions. But, as the U.S. puts the screws even
tighter to Russia's finances by forcing the price of oil down, the effect on the ruble has been
minimal.
With today's move Brent is off nearly $30 from its October high ( a massive 35% drop in
prices) just seven weeks ago and the Ruble hasn't budged. The Bank of Russia hasn't been in
there propping up its price. Normally this would send the ruble into a tailspin but it
hasn't.
The other so-called 'commodity currencies' like the Canadian and Australian dollars have
been hit hard but not the ruble.
Set the Way Back Machine to 2014 when oil prices cratered and you'll see a ruble in free
fall which culminated in a massive blow-off top that required a fundamental shift in both
fiscal and monetary policy for Russia.
This had to do with the massive dollar-denominated debt of its, you guessed it, oil and gas
sector. Today that is not a point of leverage.
Today lower oil prices will be a forward headwind for Russian oil companies but a boon to
the Russian economy that won't experience massive inflation thanks to the ruble being sold to
cover U.S. dollar liabilities.
Those days are over.
And so too will those days come for Turkey which is now in the process of doing what Russia
did in 2015, divest itself of future dollar obligations while diversifying the currencies it
trades in.
Stability, transparency and solvency are the things that increase the demand for a currency
as not only a medium of exchange but also as a reserve asset. Russia announced the latest
figures of bilateral trade with China bypassing the dollar and RT had a very interesting
quote from Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev.
No one currency should dominate the market, because this makes all of us dependent on the
economic situation in the country that issues this reserve currency, even when we are talking
about a strong economy such as the United States," Medvedev said.
He added that US sanctions have pushed Moscow and Beijing to think about the use of their
domestic currencies in settlements, something that "we should have done ten years ago."
" Trading for rubles is our absolute priority, which, by the way, should eventually turn
the ruble from a convertible currency into a reserve currency, " the Russian prime minister
said.
That is the first statement by a major Russian figure about seeing the ruble rise to reserve
status, but it's something that many, like myself, have speculated about for years now.
Tying together major economies like Turkey, Iran, China and eventually the EU via energy
projects which settle the trade in local currencies is the big threat to the current political
and economic program of the U.S. It is something the EU will only embrace reluctantly.
It is something the U.S. will oppose vehemently.
And it is something that no one will stop if it makes sense for the people on each side of
the transaction. This is why Turkstream and Nordstream 2 are such important projects they
change the entire dynamic of the flow of global capital.
Oil and commodity markets were used as a finishing move on the Soviet system. The book,
"The Oil Card: Global Economic Warfare in the 21st Century" by James R. Norman details the
use of oil futures as a geopolitical tool. Pipelines change the calculus quite a bit.
Soros funded 'migration' to Europe has also failed and created a massive cultural and
economic burden on Europe.
The Soros/Rothschild plan to destroy Middle Eastern countries and displace the people was
- of course - motivated by the Rothschilds 'bread and butter ' - OIL ( the worlds largest
traded commodity ) !!
...Where ever they go, they [neoliberals] get organised, identify the institutions/establishments/courts to infiltrate and then use that
influence to -
* Hijack the economy.
* Corrupt the society.
As the current trend shows, the nexus of the international economic activity is shifting
east. Turkey is not making a mistake aligning itself with the goals of Russia, Iran and
China. Although there is still a huge debt of the previous deeds that has to be paid.
"Half of the US billionaires are Jews while only being less then 3% of the population. And
it doesn't stop there. They work collectively to hijack the institutions critical for the
operations of the democracy."
Some worthy observations, especially with all the US "Think Tanks." But I would include
the number of non-Jewish elites who have banded together with the Jewish elite and who have
greatly aided in eating out the very heart of America.
I read on here previously some dimwit comment about "America prints a bill for 2 cents
while other countries have to earn a dollars worth of equity to buy it and we can do this
forever" kind of thing. Not if other countries don't supply the demand you can't :)
History also shows that ANY smaller entity (Israel) that depends on a larger entity
(America) for its survival becomes a failed entity in the long run. Just saying.
I think you could quite reasonably replace the term 'depends on a larger entity', with a
term that better describes a (smaller) ' parasite ' on a (larger) host...
From your lips to God's ear. The American Empire is all cost and no benefit to the great majority of Americans. The MIC
and that's it. Politicians on the right wave the flag and politicians on the left describe a
politically correct future. All on our dime.
Israhell is losing its status via Putins peaceful diplomacy and trade with ME countries
who are not onboard with the Yinon plan. This is why RUSSIAGATE, led by dual Israhelli democrats in Congress. There is always a
foreign policy issue attached to their demonizing of other countries. This is also why the UK just sent UK soldiers to Ukraine declaring war on Russia for
"invading Ukraine" and not telling parliament or the UK people.
UK/US blind support for Israhell will get us all killed.
We do know that UK soldiers have been sent to the Ukraine. We also know that, according to elements in the Government and the Civil Service, Russia
invaded and annexed the Ukraine, which is just another reason to not trust the
Government--any Government.
WRONG!!!!! NordStream Eins und Zwei are the Prizes, because DEU, Scandinavia, CHE, and FRA will
Benefit. TRK Wins 2nd Prize with TRKStream and SouthStream Pipelines. Losers are BGR and EU_PARAGOV, since BGR went from Prime Partner to Trickledown
Transiteer.
Ultimately, along with Nordstream and Turkstream, there will also be a Polarstream
(leading to UK and Iceland) and Southstream (which was already begun but temporarily
suspended after Obama threatened Bulgaria via Angela Merkel).
And, oh...I am sure there will also be a Ukrostream (also known as Mainstream)
unfortunately the Ukronazi government of Ukrainistan doesn't know this just yet. They will
find out in due course, I am sure.
First PolarStream is highly unlikely both because laying it would be extremely difficult
and expensive and because Iceland has no need for gas as it is sitting on thermal reserves
and the UK won't deal with Russia.
You are correct on SouthStream.
As to UkroStream (I assume you mean Ukraine) it is already in existence and has been for
50 plus years. Given the bad history between the parties the Russians will want to stop that
route asap, hence the timing of NordStream 2 and TurkStream. So in the future UkroSream is
going to end, not start.
long-term political implications for the Middle East. Erdogan wants to re-take control of
the Islamic world from the Saudis.
SA still has control of the Hajj -- religious tourism - command by the Magic Book that
even Turkish mohammadist must complete. +/- 18% of SA GDP-- and SA isn't sharing any of that
loot.
Ticip is required to go and throw rocks at the black orb -- and do the Muslim Hokey Pokey
along with all the rest.. oh, and pay the SA kings for the privilege !
The new 3D Grand Chessboard is being played very quietly out of Moscow.
The article is a wee bit deceptive. Whilst this was indeed the last bit of under sea pipe
they were celebrating, it should be pointed out the stunning speed that they achieved, about
a mile a day some to a depth of over 1000 feet, quite an achievement on land, let alone at
sea. This is quite interesting, especially the map
Also, as its landfall in Turkey is west of the Bosphorus, that is west of Istanbul, maybe
that 'for Turkish use' is a cover for its primary purpose, supplying the Balkans as well as
Turkey from January 2020.
Note the significance of the start to pump date, December 2019, the same as NordStream 2.
What else happens then? Oh yes, the gas transit contract with Ukraine ends. The combination
of these two new pipelines to a very great extent replace that agreement. Even though
politically everyone is saying Ukraine ($4B p.a. transit fees) should be protected.
Take another look at the map, note that it takes a dogleg south to Turkey. If at that
point it had gone straight ahead it would have gone to Bulgaria as SouthStream. But the US
and its EU vassal stopped that. Maybe the second pipeline the Russians are now discussing
will resurrect that route.
"... You would not consider as viable the hypothesis that Trump is using the assassination, and evidence of MbS' ordering of it, as leverage to achieve various objectives that MbS wasn't on board with (a resolution of the Yemen situation? Oil pricing? toning down jihadi support in the MENA? Other?). ..."
What do people make of the fact that it seems Khashoggi apparently was recently married,
the picture of him with his supposed fiancée was clearly photoshopped (used the
same photo from his WaPo profile), and his family has indicated they knew nothing of this
new fiancée?
It also seems interesting how the US has a tape of MBS ordering his silencing when we
apparently knew little at the outset. Seems this turd is starting to stink a bit.
Automated SIGINT collection produces such volumes of material based on standing targets
that it often takes a while to sift through it. MBS's phone would be such a target. In
any event Trump doesn't want to hear it.
You would not consider as viable the hypothesis that Trump is using the assassination,
and evidence of MbS' ordering of it, as leverage to achieve various objectives that MbS
wasn't on board with (a resolution of the Yemen situation? Oil pricing? toning down
jihadi support in the MENA? Other?).
Oil and commodity markets were used as a finishing move on the Soviet system. The book,
"The Oil Card: Global Economic Warfare in the 21st Century" by James R. Norman details the
use of oil futures as a geopolitical tool. Pipelines change the calculus quite a bit.
TheRealNews
Published on 20 Nov 2018
CIA officials are signaling Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman must be replaced. Is this all about the killing of Jamal
Khashoggi? Professor Asad AbuKhalil says there are other political reasons.
Fear not! I heard on the news on my way home that Trump has decided Saudi Arabia will not be
punished for the killing of Khahsoggi with termination of current arms contracts. The Donald
reasons that if that happens, the KSA will just buy its weapons elsewhere. And nobody in the
military-industrial complex wants that. I am very confident Justin Trudeau will interpret
that as a signal that Canada likewise should not cut off its nose to spite its face, and so
Canada will not 'punish' its good friend, either. Therefore, Saudi Arabia will experience no
punishment whatsoever for its admitted murder of an inconvenient American journalist. There
are limits to western indignation, after all. So the west will content itself with revoking
the KSA's invitation to the Spring Strawberry Social, and double down on its insistence that
Crimea is Ukraine and must be returned to Kiev's control, and the west will never accept its
'annexation'. Never, never, never. There are some issues on which the west has spine to
spare. So if you want a noisy western journalist removed, slip the Saudis a few bucks, and
they can probably make it happen with no recriminations.
The recognition of Crimea as part of Ukraine by Washington and its minions is totally
worthless. It is not based on law and justice, it is based on self-interest (as in the USA
had big plans to acquire Crimea and build a massive naval base there). The use of the word
annexation is propaganda drivel.
Ukraine annexed Crimea in 1991 and the ICJ has ruled that
local ethnic majorities have a right to self determination. If independence is good enough
for Kosovo, it is good enough for Crimea. No amount of special pleading by Washington and its
bootlicks about Kosovo being "special" has any merit.
I'm afraid you are wrong about the ICJ Kirill. The ICJ dodged the actual issue. They ruled
that making a declaration of independence is not against international law, not
whether anyone/whatever/blah blah blah actually has the right to independence. Possibly
because they did not want to cross Pandora's Rubicon Box
the adoption of the declaration of independence of the 17 February 2008 did not violate
general international law because international law contains no 'prohibition on declarations
of independence
####
Some call it 'unique', others call it a precedent , therefore 'not unique'. If the
West argues that the ICJ said it was ok, then it is also ok for Crimea to declare
independence. Or, if they claim that Crimea is not independent, that Kosovo cannot be either,
hence, as you point out the use of the word ' annexation ' and other creative
circumlocutions to avoid mentioning that secession was first and the clear comparison with
Kosovo which would not serve them well at all.
The International Court of Justice today held that
international law did not prohibit Kosovo's
declaration of independence, while sidestepping the
larger issue of Kosovo's statehood
####
But, this is not the first time the West has decided what international law is for itself
when back in 1991 the European Council ministers themselves appointed the Badinter Commission
to give it a legal figleaf for recognizing the administrative borders of Yugoslavia as
international. I've posted this link before, but once more with feeling:
Thanks for the clarification. But it is all a house of cards. Given that empires and
countries have continually fissioned into pieces through the whole of relevant history, the
notion of "territorial integrity" is bogus and a corollary of "might makes right". As long as
the country can suppress secessionists it has territorial integrity, when it becomes too weak
everything falls apart. There is no international law. And if ware to assume a common law
regime that is not maintained by legislatures, then secession is fully legal if the local
majority wants it hard enough.
We know it is nothing but the Law of the Jungle. It's just that the fancy dress shop
has expanded and has a lot more more costumes on offer to its clients.
when the west trots out its I-never-said that-exactly smokescreen, it is helpful to read
what various western countries wrote as legal opinions, and the arguments they used to
support their reasoning. Where Kosovo is concerned, a classic is the Polish opinion, written
by (or more likely for) its then-Foreign Minister, Radek Sikorski. He wrote, in part;
" a state is commonly defined as a community which consists of a territory and a
population subject to an organized political authority; that such a state is characterized by
sovereignty the existence of the state is a question of fact, the effects of recognition by
other states are purely declaratory. A declaration of independence is merely an act that
confirms these factual circumstances, and it may be difficult to assess such an act in purely
legal terms."
Legal opinions are usually replete with bafflegab to confuse the easily-bored and the
pressed-for-time readers. But Mr. Sikorski made what he must have believed was a very
convincing case that a sovereign state-within-a-state is characterized by an ethnic
population, a pre-existing degree of autonomy (so that the entity demonstrates the capability
to function autonomously), and its own functioning institutions such as banks and
infrastructure.
Which of those is not descriptive of Crimea? It was even called "The Autonomous Republic
of Crimea", for Christ's sake. Sikorski doubtless had an inkling that the Kosovo precedent
might come back to bite NATO, and so tried to duck a justification which might read like a
precedent, but it was unavoidable.
These American fucktards actually think they can replace Russian gas supply to the EU. With
what you utter void heads? America had a net export capacity of 5 bcm in 2017 because it
imported about 87 bcm from Canada. When you fuckwad, douchebags get 150 bcm export capacity,
then start yapping. Until then, STFU.
Of course, it is clear to anyone with a functional brain that the US is totally dishonest
on claiming to want to supply the EU. In fact, it wants to saddle the EU with onerous LNG
contracts to third parties (e.g. Qatar) who can currently and for the near term supply the
volumes of LNG needed. At the same time the US damages the Asian tigers by increasing LNG
prices.
It is time for all the US bootlicks (Japan, the EU) to tell Uncle Scumbag to shove himself
in his own ass. The US is not even pretending to treat these countries with respect.
The US has repeatedly taken position against Nord Stream 2, a Russia-sponsored pipeline
planned to bring gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea. But this time Washington warned against
another such pipeline, bringing Russian gas under the Black Sea.
US Energy Secretary Rick Perry called on Hungary and its neighbors to reject Russian gas
pipelines which Washington says are being used to cement Moscow's grip on central and eastern
Europe.
Energy diversification would be crucial for the region, as Russia has used energy as a
weapon in the past, he said, as quoted by Reuters.
"Russia is using a pipeline project Nord stream 2 and a multi-line Turkish stream to try to
solidify its control over the security and the stability of Central and eastern Europe," Perry
added during a visit to Budapest.
Last July, Hungary signed a deal with Russia's Gazprom to link the country with the Turkish
Stream pipeline by end-2019.
Rick Perry is a salesman. He wants us Europeans to buy USA gas. Which is why he is against
North Stream 2 and Turkish Stream. Not because Russia may use gas to blackmail Europe --
unlike the USA, which blackmails Europe to sanction Iran and Russia –. No, he just
wants us to buy America.
Despite the fact that gas produced in the USA is far more expensive
than Russia's. Well, what can you expect from a minister in the government of a tycoon? What
else can you expect from today's USA?
One way or another, Gazprom is going to have to pay Ukraine $2.6 Billion, so they might as
well just do it and have it over with. Of course the Ukies will prance and jump up and down
in the streets and yell 'Slava Ukrainy' – and hasten off to prepare new lawsuits in
search of more money from the Russian state. But a Swiss court has ordered all Nord Stream
partners to not make any payments to Gazprom, instead to pay all monies owed to Gazprom to
Swedish bailiffs, who will redistribute it to Ukraine until they recover all their money.
Looks like the recent oil price drop was engineered like in 2014 by the USA
adminsitration...
" Concerns that strict sanctioning of Iranian oil would result in a spike in global oil
prices prompted Trump to grant waivers to eight of Iran's largest purchasers of oil, creating a
situation where Iran's oil-based income will increase following the implementation of sanctions.
The bottom line is that the current round of U.S. sanctions targeting Iran will not achieve
anything. "
Notable quotes:
"... With Iran, the issue of nuclear non-proliferation was an additional justification for sanctions. Here, disarmament concerns eventually trumped regime change desires, to the extent that when the U.S. was confronted by the reality that sanctions would not achieve the change in behavior desired by Tehran, and the cost of war with Iran being prohibitively high, both politically and militarily, it capitulated. It agreed to lift the sanctions in exchange for Iran agreeing to enhanced monitoring of a nuclear program that was fundamentally unaltered by the resulting agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action, or JCPOA. ..."
"... When Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, he did so in an environment that was radically different than the one that was in play when President Barack Obama embraced that agreement in July 2015. Today, the U.S. stands alone in implementing sanctions, while Iran enjoys the support of the rest of the world (support that will continue so long as Iran complies with the provisions set forth in the JCPOA.) Moreover, Iran is working with its new-found partners in Europe, Russia, and China to develop work-arounds to the U.S. sanctions. ..."
"... The coalition of support that the U.S. has assembled to confront Iran, built around Israel and Saudi Arabia, is not as solid as had been hoped -- Israel is tied down in Gaza, while Saudi Arabia struggles in Yemen, and is reeling from the fallout surrounding the murder of Jamal Khashoggi ..."
The
imposition of new, more stringent sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales by the Trump
administration has once again raised the question: is this even a viable policy?
The Council on Foreign Relations
defines sanctions as "a lower-cost, lower-risk, middle course of action between diplomacy
and war." In short, sanctions do not represent policy per se, but rather the absence of policy,
little more than a stop-gap measure to be used while other options are considered and/or
developed.
Not surprising, sanctions have rarely -- if ever -- succeeded in obtaining their desired
results. The poster child for successful sanctions as a vehicle for change -- divestment in
South Africa during the 1980s in opposition to the Apartheid regime -- is in reality a red
herring. The South
Africa sanctions were in fact counterproductive , in so far as they prompted even harsher
policies from the South African government. The demise of Apartheid came about largely because
the Soviet Union collapsed, meaning the South African government was no longer needed in the
fight against communism.
Another myth that has arisen around sanctions is their utility in addressing
nonproliferation issues. Since 1994, the U.S. has promulgated non-proliferation sanctions under
the guise of executive orders signed by the president or statutes passed by Congress. But there
is no evidence that sanctions implemented under these authorities have meaningfully altered the
behaviors that they target. Better known are the various sanctions regimes authorized under UN
Security Council resolutions backed by the United States, specifically those targeting Iraq,
North Korea, and Iran.
The Iraq sanctions were, by intent, a stop-gap measure implemented four days after the Iraqi
invasion of Kuwait and intended to buy time until a military response could be authorized,
organized, and executed. The nature of the Iraq sanctions regime was fundamentally altered
after Operation Desert Storm, when the objective transitioned away from the liberation of
Kuwait, which was achieved by force of arms, to the elimination of weapons of mass destruction,
which was never the intent of the sanctions to begin with. The potential for sanctions to alter
Iraqi behavior was real -- Iraq had made the lifting of sanctions its top priority, and thanks
to aggressive UN weapons inspections, was effectively disarmed by 1995.
This potential, however, was never realized in large part to the unspoken yet very real
policy on part of the U.S. that sanctions would not be lifted on Iraq, regardless of its level
of disarmament, until which time its president, Saddam Hussein, was removed from power. Since
the sanctions were not designed, intended, or capable of achieving regime change, their very
existence became a policy trap -- as the sanctions crumbled due to a lack of support and
enforcement, the U.S. was compelled to either back away from its regime change policy, which
was politically impossible, or seek regime change through military engagement. In short,
American sanctions policy vis-à-vis Iraq was one of the major causal factors behind the
2003 decision to invade Iraq.
One of the flawed lessons that emerged from the Iraq sanctions experience was that sanctions
could contribute to regime change, in so far as they weakened the targeted nation to the point
that a military option became attractive. This is a fundamentally flawed conclusion, however,
predicated on the mistaken belief that Iraq's military weakness was the direct byproduct of
sanctions. Iraq's military weakness was because its military had been effectively destroyed
during the 1991 Gulf War. Sanctions contributed significantly to Iraq being unable to
reconstitute a meaningful military capability, but they were not the cause of the underlying
systemic problems that led to the rapid defeat of the Iraqi military in 2003.
The "success" of the Iraq sanctions regime helped guide U.S. policy regarding North Korea in
the 1990s and 2000s. Stringent sanctions, backed by Security Council resolutions, were
implemented to curtail North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile
delivery systems. Simple cause-effect analysis shows the impotence of this effort -- North
Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile capability continued unabated, culminating in
nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching U.S. soil being tested
and deployed. The notion that sanctions could undermine the legitimacy of the North Korean
regime and facilitate its collapse was not matched by reality. If anything, support for the
regime grew as it demonstrated its willingness to stand up to the U.S. and proceed with its
nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
The Trump administration labors under the fiction that it was the U.S. policy of "maximum
pressure" through sanctions that compelled North Korea to agree to denuclearization. The
reality, however, is that it is North Korea, backed by China and Russia, that has dictated the
timing of the diplomatic breakthrough with the U.S. ( the
so-called "Peace Olympics" ), and the pace of associated disarmament. Moreover, North
Korea's insistence that any denuclearization be conducted parallel to the lifting of economic
sanctions demonstrates that it is in full control of its policy, and that the promise of the
lifting of economic sanctions has not, to date, prompted any change in Pyongyang's stance.
While President Donald Trump maintains that the U.S. will not budge from its position that
sanctions will remain in place until North Korea disarms, the fact of the matter is that the
sanctions regime is already collapsing, with China opening its border, Russia selling gasoline
and oil, and South Korea engaged in discussions about potential unification.
The U.S. has lost control of the process, if indeed it was ever in control. It is doubtful
that the rest of the world will allow the progress made to date with North Korea to be undone,
leaving the U.S. increasingly isolated. Insisting on the maintenance of a sanctions regime that
has proven ineffective and counterproductive is not sustainable policy. As with Iraq, U.S.
sanctions have proven to be the problem, not the solution. Unlike Iraq, North Korea maintains a
robust military capability, fundamentally altering the stakes involved in any military solution
the U.S. might consider as an alternative -- in short, there is no military solution. One can
expect the U.S. to alter its position on sanctions before North Korea budges on
denuclearization.
Iran represents a far more complex, and dangerous, problem set. The United States has
maintained sanctions against Iran that date back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution that overthrew
the Shah, and the seizure of the U.S. embassy and resultant holding of its staff hostage for
444 days. The U.S. policy vis-à-vis Iran has been one where the demise of the ruling
theocracy has been a real, if unstated, objective, and every sanctions regime implemented since
that time has had that outcome in mind. This is the reverse of the Iraqi case, where regime
change was an afterthought to sanctions. With Iran, the issue of nuclear non-proliferation
was an additional justification for sanctions. Here, disarmament concerns eventually trumped
regime change desires, to the extent that when the U.S. was confronted by the reality that
sanctions would not achieve the change in behavior desired by Tehran, and the cost of war with
Iran being prohibitively high, both politically and militarily, it capitulated. It agreed to
lift the sanctions in exchange for Iran agreeing to enhanced monitoring of a nuclear program
that was fundamentally unaltered by the resulting agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive
Program of Action, or JCPOA.
When Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, he did so in an environment that was radically
different than the one that was in play when President Barack Obama embraced that agreement in
July 2015. Today, the U.S. stands alone in implementing sanctions, while Iran enjoys the
support of the rest of the world (support that will continue so long as Iran complies with the
provisions set forth in the JCPOA.) Moreover, Iran is working with its new-found partners in
Europe, Russia, and China to develop work-arounds to the U.S. sanctions.
The coalition of support that the U.S. has assembled to confront Iran, built around
Israel and Saudi Arabia, is not as solid as had been hoped -- Israel is tied down in Gaza,
while Saudi Arabia struggles in Yemen, and is reeling from the fallout surrounding the murder
of Jamal Khashoggi .
Concerns that strict sanctioning of Iranian oil would result in a spike in global oil prices
prompted Trump to grant waivers to eight of Iran's largest purchasers of oil, creating a
situation where Iran's oil-based income will increase following the implementation of
sanctions. The bottom line is that the current round of U.S. sanctions targeting Iran will not
achieve anything.
For the meantime, Iran will avoid confrontation, operating on the hope that it will be able
to cobble an effective counter to U.S. sanctions. However, unlike Iraq, Iran has a very capable
military. Unlike Korea, however, this military is not equipped with a nuclear deterrent.
If history has taught us anything, it is that the U.S. tends to default to military
intervention when sanctions have failed to achieve the policy goal of regime change. Trump,
operating as he is under the influence of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security
Advisor John Bolton, is not immune to this trap. The question is whether Iran can defeat the
sanctions through workarounds before they become too crippling and the regime is forced to lash
out in its own defense. This is one race where the world would do well to bet on Iran, because
the consequences of failure are dire.
Scott Ritter is a former Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former
Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert
Storm, and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD. He is the author of Dealbreaker:
Donald Trump and the Unmaking of the Iran Nuclear Deal (2018) by Clarity Press.
"... The Treasury declaration blamed MbS advisor Saud al-Qahtani as mastermind behind the Khashoggi murder, while the Saudis carefully avoided that. We now learn that the person in the U.S. National Security Council who put al-Qahtani on the list was fired : ..."
"... Fontenrose had played a key role in the administration's decision about which Saudis to sanction in response to Khashoggi's killing, these people said. ..."
"... I suspect that MbS tried, via Trump's son-in-law Kushner, to save al-Qahtani (and himself). Trump clearly wanted to do that, but Fontenrose blew the plan by pushing for al-Qahtani to be sanctioned. The CIA also sabotaged the planned exculpation of MbS by 'leaking' its judgment about MbS' personal responsibility to the press. ( WaPo published the CIA conclusion in Arabic , another point the Saudis will hate.) ..."
We were first to point out that the NYT's characterization of an old North Korean
missile site as "deception" was pure nonsense. Newsweek
, 38north.org , NKNews.org ,
The Nation and others now also condemned the neo-conned NYT propaganda.
The war let to the loss of Netanyahoo's majority in the Knesset. He is now trying to stall new
elections in which he could lose his job.
Trump's Middle East policy is in total disarray. Nothing is working as planned. Netanyahoo
will probebaly fall. Saudi Arabia will not make nice with Qatar. There will be no Arab NATO or
anti-Iran alliance. MbS is despised but will stay on the job. Yemen is starving. The U.S. is at
odds with Turkey over support for the Kurds. Trumps knows and
hates this :
The adviser who talks to Trump said: "If the president had his way, he would stay entirely
out of the Middle East and all of the problems."
The piece was the first to point out the difference between the Saudi investigation, which
put blame on Major General Ahmed al-Asiri, and the names on the U.S. sanction list published at
the same time. The Treasury declaration blamed MbS advisor Saud al-Qahtani as mastermind
behind the Khashoggi murder, while the Saudis carefully avoided that. We now learn that the
person in the U.S. National Security Council who put al-Qahtani on the list was fired :
On Friday evening, Kirsten Fontenrose, the National Security Council official in charge of
U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia, resigned, administration officials said. The circumstances
of her departure weren't clear. But Fontenrose had previously been placed on administrative
leave, according to people familiar with the matter.
Fontenrose had played a key role in the administration's decision about which Saudis to
sanction in response to Khashoggi's killing, these people said.
I suspect that MbS tried, via Trump's son-in-law Kushner, to save al-Qahtani (and
himself). Trump clearly wanted to do that, but Fontenrose blew the plan by pushing for
al-Qahtani to be sanctioned. The CIA also sabotaged the planned exculpation of MbS by 'leaking'
its judgment about MbS' personal responsibility to the press. ( WaPo published the CIA
conclusion
in Arabic , another point the Saudis will hate.) Trump is furious that the CIA (again)
sabotaged his policy:
Asked about reports that the CIA had assessed involvement by Mohammed, the president said:
"They haven't assessed anything yet. It's too early."
The Express UK reports that Russia and Saudi Arabia's 'long-term relationship' will not
only survive, but grow, regardless of geopolitical turmoil and internal Saudi scandal as the
energy interests between both nations bind them together.
... ... ...
But IHS Market vice chairman Daniel Yergin said the decision was unlikely to jeopardise
the relationship between the two allies.
The Saudis have faced significant international criticism in the wake of the killing of
journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Turkey.
Speaking to CNBC, Mr Yergin made it clear that Moscow and Riyadh would continue to be
closely aligned irrespective of external factors.
He explained: "I think it's intended to be a long-term relationship and it started off
about oil prices but you see it taking on other dimensions, for instance, Saudi investment in
Russian LNG (liquefied natural gas) and Russian investment in Saudi Arabia.
"I think this is a strategic relationship because it's useful to both countries."
Saudi Arabia and Russia are close, especially as a result of their pact in late 2016,
along with other OPEC and non-OPEC producers, to curb output by 1.8 million barrels per day
in order to prevent prices dropping too far – but oil markets have changed since then,
largely as a result.
The US criticised OPEC, which Saudi Arabia is the nominal leader of, after prices
rose.
Markets have fluctuated in recent weeks as a result of fears over a possible drop in
supply, as a result of US sanctions on Iran, and an oversupply, as a result of increased
production by Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US, which have seen prices fall by about 20
percent since early October.
Saudi Arabia has pumped 10.7 million barrels per day in October, while the figure for
Russia and the US was 11.4 million barrels in each case.
Mr Yergin said: "It's the big three, it's Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US, this is a
different configuration in the oil market than the traditional OPEC-non-OPEC one and so the
world is having to adjust."
BP Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley told CNBC: "The OPEC-plus agreement between OPEC and
non-OPEC producers including Russia and coalition is a lot stronger than people
speculate.
"I think Russia doesn't have the ability to turn on and off big fields which can happen in
the Middle East.
"But I fully expect there to be coordination to try to keep the oil price within a certain
fairway."
Markets rallied by two percent on Monday off the back of the
Saudi decision to cut production , which it justified by citing uncertain global oil
growth and associated oil demand next year.
It also suggested
waivers granted on US sanctions imposed on Iran which have been granted to several
countries including China and Japan was a reason not to fear a decline in supply.
Also talking to CNBC, Russia's Oil Minister Alexander Novak indicated a difference of
opinion between Russia and the Saudis, saying it was too soon to cut production, highlighting
a lot of volatility in the oil market.
He added: "If such a decision is necessary for the market and all the countries are in
agreement, I think that Russia will undoubtedly play a part in this.
"But it's early to talk about this now, we need to look at this question very
carefully."
"... Finally, unlike Yergin and other historians of the oil industry, Auzanneau frames his tale of petroleum as a life cycle, with germination followed by spring, summer, and autumn. There is a beginning and a flourishing, but there is also an end. This framing is extremely helpful, given the fact that the world is no longer in the spring or summer of the oil era. We take petroleum for granted, but it's time to start imagining a world, and daily life, without it. ..."
Similarly, the real story of oil is of fortunes lost, betrayal, war, espionage, and
intrigue. In the end, inevitably, the story of oil is a story of depletion. Petroleum is a
nonrenewable resource, a precious substance that took tens of millions of years to form and
that is gone in a comparative instant as we extract and burn it. For many decades, oil-hungry
explorers, using ever-improving technology', have been searching for ever-deteriorating
prospects as the low- hanging fin its of planet Earth's primordial oil bounty gradually
dwindle. Oil wells have been shut in, oil fields exhausted, and oil companies bankrupted by the
simple, inexorable reality of depletion.
It is impossible to understand the political and economic history of the past 150 years
without taking account of a central character in the drama -- oil, the magical
wealth-generating substance, a product of ancient sunlight and tens of millions of years of
slow geological processes, whose tragic fate is to be dug up and combusted once and for all.
leaving renewed poverty in its wake. With Oil, Power, and War, Matthieu Auzanneau has produced
what I believe is the new definitive work on oil and its historic significance, supplanting
even Daniel Yergin's renowned The Prize, for reasons I'll describe below.
The importance of oil's role in shaping the modern world cannot be overstated. Prior to the
advent of fossil fuels, firewood was humanity's main fuel. But forests could be cut to the last
tree (many were), and wood was bulky. Coal offered some economic advantages over wood. But it
was oil -- liquid and therefore easier to transport; more energy-dense; and simpler to store --
that turbocharged the modern industrial age following the development of the first commercial
wells around the year 1860.
John D. Rockefeller's cutthroat, monopolist business model shaped the early industry, which
was devoted mostly to the production of kerosene for lamp oil (gasoline was then considered a
waste product and often discarded into streams or rivers). But roughly forty years later, when
Henry Ford developed the automobile assembly line, demand for black gold was suddenly as
explosive as gasoline itself.
Speaking of explosions, the role of petroleum in the two World Wars and the armament
industry' in general deserves not just a footnote in history books but serious and detailed
treatment such as it receives in this worthy volume. Herein we learn how Imperial Japan and
Nazi Germany literally ran out of gas while the Allies rode to victory in planes, ships, and
tanks burning refined US crude. Berlin could be cut off from supplies in Baku or North Africa,
and Tokyo's tanker route from Borneo could be blockaded -- but no one could interrupt the
American war machine's access to Texas tea.
In the pages that follow, we learn about the origin of the decades-long US alliance with
Saudi Arabia, the development of OPEC, the triumph of the petrodollar, and the reasons for both
the Algerian independence movement and the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Auzanneau traces the
postwar growth of the global economy and the development of consumerism, globalization, and car
culture. He recounts how the population explosion and the Green Revolution in agriculture
reshaped demographics and politics globally -- and explains why both depended on petroleum. We
learn why Nixon cut the US dollar's tether to the gold standard just a year after US oil
production started to decline, and how the American economy began to rely increasingly on debt.
The story of oil takes ever more fascinating turns -- with the fall of the Soviet Union after
its oil production hit a snag; with soaring petroleum prices in 2008 coinciding with the onset
of the global financial crisis; and with wars in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen erupting as global
conventional oil output flatlined.
As I alluded to above, comparisons will inevitably be drawn between Oil, Power, and War and
Daniel Yergin's Pulitzer-winning "The Prize", published in 1990. It may be helpful therefore to
point out four of the most significant ways this work differs from Yergin's celebrated tour de
force.
The most obvious difference between the two books is simply one of time frame. The Prize's
narrative stops in the 1980s, while Oil, Power, and War also covers the following critical
decades, which encompass the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the first Gulf War, 9/11, the US
invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, the global financial crisis of 2008. and major shifts within
the petroleum industry as it relies ever less on conventional crude and ever more on
unconventional resources such as bitumen (Canada's oil sands), tight oil (also called shale
oil), and deepwater oil.
Finally, unlike Yergin and other historians of the oil industry, Auzanneau frames his
tale of petroleum as a life cycle, with germination followed by spring, summer, and autumn.
There is a beginning and a flourishing, but there is also an end. This framing is extremely
helpful, given the fact that the world is no longer in the spring or summer of the oil era. We
take petroleum for granted, but it's time to start imagining a world, and daily life, without
it.
Taken together, these distinctions indeed make Oil, Power, and War the definitive work on
the history of oil -- no small achievement, but a judgment well earned.
Over the past decade, worrisome signs of global oil depletion have been obscured by the
unabashed enthusiasm of energy analysts regarding growing production in the United States from
low-porosity source rocks. Termed "light tight oil," this new resource has been unleashed
through application of the technologies of hydrofracturing (tracking) and horizontal
drilling.
US liquid fuels production has now surpassed its previous peak in 1970, and well-regarded
agencies such as the Energy Information Administration are forecasting continued tight oil
abundance through mid-century.
Auzanneau titles his discussion of this phenomenon (in chapter 30), "Nonconventional
Petroleum to the Rescue?" -- and frames it as a question for good reason: Skeptics of tight oil
hyperoptimism point out that most production so far has been unprofitable. The industry has
managed to stay in the game only due to low interest rates (most companies are heavily in debt)
and investor hype. Since source rocks lack permeability, individual oil wells deplete very
quickly -- with production in each well declining on the order of 70 percent to 90 percent in
the first three years. That means that relentless, expensive drilling is needed in order to
release the oil that's there. Thus the tight oil industry can be profitable only if oil prices
are very high -- high enough, perhaps, to hobble the economy -- and if drilling is concentrated
in the small core areas within each of the productive regions. But these "sweet spots" are
being exhausted rapidly. Further, with tight oil the energy returned on the energy invested in
drilling and completion is far less than was the case with American petroleum in its
heyday.
It takes energy to fell a tree, drill an oil well, or manufacture a solar panel. We depend
on the energy payback from those activities to run society. In the miraculous years of the late
twentieth century, oil delivered an averaged 50:1 energy payback. It was this, more than
anything else, that made rapid economic growth possible, especially for the nations that were
home to the world's largest oil reserves and extraction companies. As the world relies ever
less on conventional oil and ever more on tight oil, bitumen, and deepwater oil, the overall
energy payback of the oil industry is declining rapidly. And this erosion of energy return is
reflected in higher overall levels of debt in the oil industry and lower overall financial
profitability.
Meanwhile the industry is spending ever less on exploration -- for two reasons. First, there
is less money available for that purpose, due to declining financial profitability; second,
there seems comparatively little oil left to be found: Recent years have seen new oil
discoveries dwindle to the lowest level since the 1940s. The world is not about to run out of
oil. But the industry that drove society in the twentieth century to the heights of human
economic and technological progress is failing in the twenty-first century.
Today some analysts speak of "peak oil demand." The assumption behind the phrase is that
electric cars will soon reduce our need for oil, even as abundance of supply is assured by
fracking. But the world is still highly dependent on crude oil. We have installed increasing
numbers of solar panels and wind turbines, but the transition to renewable is going far too
slowly either to avert catastrophic climate change or to fully replace petroleum before
depletion forces an economic crisis. While we may soon see more electric cars on the road,
trucking, shipping, and aviation will be much harder to electrify. We haven't really learned
yet how to make the industrial world work without oil. The simple reality is that the best days
of the oil business, and the oil-fueled industrial way of life, are behind us. And we are not
ready for what comes next.
Colonel Salam , what do you think of retired general Abizad becoming new US' ambassador to KSA. To me installing an Arabic speaking
Arab American general as the new ambassador to the kingdom sounds like the Borg is becoming concerned with kingdom' stability
when changes come. They probably don't want to repeat the mistake of keeping Sullivan during IRI. So sorry for OT.
Oil, Power, and War is a story of the dreams and hubris that spawned an era of
economic chaos, climate change, war, and terrorism -- as well as an eloquent framing from which
to consider our options as our primary source of power, in many ways irreplacable, grows ever
more constrained.
In this sweeping, unabashed history of oil, Matthieu Auzanneau takes a fresh,
thought-provoking look at the way oil interests have commandeered politics and economies,
changed cultures, disrupted power balances across the globe, and spawned wars. He upends
commonly held assumptions about key political and financial events of the past 150 years, and
he sheds light on what our oil-constrained and eventually post-oil future might look
like.
Oil, Power, and War follows the oil industry from its heyday when the first oil
wells were drilled to the quest for new sources as old ones dried up. It traces the rise of the
Seven Sisters and other oil cartels and exposes oil's key role in the crises that have shaped
our times: two world wars, the Cold War, the Great Depression, Bretton Woods, the 2008
financial crash, oil shocks, wars in the Middle East, the race for Africa's oil riches, and
more. And it defines the oil-born trends shaping our current moment, such as the jockeying for
access to Russia's vast oil resources, the search for extreme substitutes for declining
conventional oil, the rise of terrorism, and the changing nature of economic growth.
We meet a long line of characters from John D. Rockefeller to Dick Cheney and Rex Tillerson,
and hear lesser-known stories like how New York City taxes were once funneled directly to banks
run by oil barons. We see how oil and power, once they became inextricably linked, drove
actions of major figures like Churchill, Roosevelt, Stalin, Hitler, Kissinger, and the Bushes.
We also learn the fascinating backstory sparked by lesser-known but key personalities such as
Calouste Gulbenkian, Abdullah al-Tariki, and Marion King Hubbert, the once-silenced oil
industry expert who warned his colleagues that oil production was facing its peak.
Oil, Power, and War is a story of the dreams and hubris that spawned an era of
economic chaos, climate change, war, and terrorism -- as well as an eloquent framing from which
to consider our options as our primary source of power, in many ways irreplacable, grows ever
more constrained.
The book has been translated from the highly acclaimed French title, Or Noir .
My guess is that much of KSA will look a lot like the shabby end of Yemen before too long. This will perhaps strand some assets.
Once the House of Saud fragments further among competing clans/factions (Faisal, Sudairi, Abdullah, Bin Sultans) things will hasten.
Collapse is preceded by intra-elite rivalry over a shrinking pie, so to speak.
Caspian Report has a nice set on KSA if you look for them. Here's one- https://youtu.be/9tHwvZ9XDLU
And another- https://youtu.be/hh8isVX3H9w
Hightrekker once commented something quite apt, along the lines of~ 'And all this is probably like the Austrians in 1913 arguing
about who their next Habsburg Ruler is going to be'.
From what I understand there are 4000 Saudi princes (a suspiciously round number, so likely an approximate). It all should
make for a very bloody affair. Hopefully Iran will do the right thing and kick 'em while they're down.
It's interesting that Clapper is against abandoned by Trump Iran deal.
Tramp administration is acting more like Israeli marionette here, because while there a
strategic advantage in crushing the Iranian regime for the USA and making a county another Us
vassal in the middle East, the cost for the country might be way to high (especially if we count
in the cost of additional antagonizing Russia and China). Trump might jump into the second
Afghanistan, which would really brake the back of US military -- crushing Iran military is one
thing, but occupying such a county is a very costly task. And that might well doom Israel in the
long run as settlers policies now created really antagonized, unrecognizable minority with a high
birth rate.
Vanishing one-by-one of partners are given due to collapse of neoliberalism as an ideology.
Nobody believes that neoliberalism is the future, like many believed in 80th and early 90th. This
looks more and more like a repetion of the path of the USSR after 1945, when communist ideology
was discredited and communist elite slowly fossilized. In 46 years from its victory in WWII the
USSR was dissolved. The same might happen with the USA in 50 years after winning the Cold
War.
Notable quotes:
"... a vanishing one by one of American partners who were previously supportive of U.S. leadership in curbing Iran, particularly its nuclear program. ..."
"... The United States risks losing the cooperation of historic and proven allies in the pursuit of other U.S. national security interests around the world, far beyond Iran. ..."
Only well calibrated multilateral political, economic and diplomatic pressure brought to
bear on Iran with many and diverse partners will produce the results we seek.
"Then there were none" was Agatha Christie's most memorable mystery about a house party in
which each guest was killed off one by one. Donald Trump's policy toward Iran has resulted in
much the same: a vanishing one by one of American partners who were previously supportive
of U.S. leadership in curbing Iran, particularly its nuclear program.
Dozens of states, painstakingly cultivated over decades of American leadership in blocking
Iran's nuclear capability, are now simply gone. One of America's three remaining allies on
these issues, Saudi Arabia, has become a central player in American strategy throughout the
Middle East region. But the Saudis, because of the Jamal Khashoggi killing and other reasons,
may have cut itself out of the action. The United Arab Emirates, so close to the Saudis, may
also fall away.
Such paucity of international support has left the Trump administration dangerously
isolated. "America First" should not mean America alone. The United States risks losing the
cooperation of historic and proven allies in the pursuit of other U.S. national security
interests around the world, far beyond Iran.
... ... ...
European allies share many of our concerns about Iran's regional activities, but they
strongly oppose U.S. reinstitution of secondary sanctions against them. They see the Trump
administration's new sanctions as a violation of the nuclear agreement and UN Security Council
resolutions and as undermining efforts to influence Iranian behavior. The new sanctions and
those applied on November 5 only sap European interest in cooperating to stop Iran.
... ... ...
The United States cannot provoke regime change in Iran any more than it has successfully in
other nations in the region. And, drawing on strategies used to topple governments in Iraq and
Afghanistan, the United States should be wary of launching or trying to spur a military
invasion of Iran.
Lt. Gen. James Clapper (USAF, ret.) is the former Director of National Intelligence.
Thomas R. Pickering is a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Russia and
India.
"... Later, it emerged that QIA and Glencore planned to sell the majority of the stake they had acquired in Rosneft to China's energy conglomerate CEFC, but the deal fell through after Beijing set its sights on CEFC and launched an investigation that saw the removal of its chief executive. The investigation was reportedly part of a wide crackdown on illicit business practices on the part of private Chinese companies favored by Beijing. ..."
Russian VTB, a state-owned bank, funded a significant portion of the Qatar Investment
Authority's acquisition of a stake in oil giant Rosneft , Reuters
reports , quoting nine unnamed sources familiar with the deal.
VTB, however, has denied to Reuters taking any part in the deal.
"VTB has not issued and is not planning to issue a loan to QIA to finance the
acquisition," the bank said in response for a request for comment.
The Reuters sources, however, claim VTB provided a US$6 billion loan to the Qatar sovereign
wealth fund that teamed up with Swiss Glencore to acquire 19.5 percent in Rosneft last year.
Reuters cites data regarding VTB's activity issued by the Russian central bank that shows VTB
lent US$6.7 billion (434 billion rubles) to unnamed foreign entities and the loan followed
another loan of US$5.20 billion (350 billion rubles) from the same central bank.
The news first made
headlines in December, taking markets by surprise, as Rosneft's partial privatization was
expected by most to be limited to Russian investors. The price tag on the stake was around
US$11.57 billion (692 billion rubles), of which Glencore agreed to contribute US$324 million.
The remainder was forked over by the Qatar Investment Authority, as well as non-recourse bank
financing.
Russia's budget received about US$10.55 billion (
710.8 billion rubles ) from the deal, including US$ 270 million (18 billion rubles) in
extra dividends. Rosneft, for its part, got an indirect stake in Glencore of 0.54 percent.
Later, it
emerged that QIA and Glencore planned to sell the majority of the stake they had acquired
in Rosneft to China's energy conglomerate CEFC, but the deal fell through after Beijing set its
sights on CEFC and launched an investigation that saw the removal of its chief executive. The
investigation was reportedly part of a wide crackdown on illicit business practices on the part
of private Chinese companies favored by Beijing.
Seeking protection against possible new U.S. sanctions, Russian energy majors are
heaping pressure on Western oil buyers to use euros instead of dollars for payments, as
well as penalty clauses in contracts.
Russia supplies over 10% of global oil, so severe sanctions could affect crude prices.
Global oil majors further rely on Russia to feed their refineries, especially in Europe and
Asia, so they cannot just walk away from annual contract negotiations.
Also if administration really wants war, Iran is not Ieaq and will fight more efficiently,
while the US army despite technological supreiority is demoralized. nobody believe into the the
building of global neoliberal empire any longer.
Notable quotes:
"... The administration's policy seems sure to fail on its own terms, and it is also the wrong thing to do. ..."
"... If a foreign power waged an economic war against your country, would you be likely to respond to that foreign coercion by effectively taking their side against your own government? Of course not. The idea that Iranians will do the work of their country's enemies by rising up and toppling the regime has always been far-fetched, but it is particularly absurd to think that Iranians would do this after they have just seen their economy be destroyed by the actions of a foreign government. ..."
"... People normally do not respond to economic hardship and diminishing prospects by risking their lives by starting a rebellion against the state. ..."
"... Making Iranians poorer and more miserable isn't going to encourage them to be more politically active, much less rebellious, but will instead force them to focus on getting by. That is likely to depress turnout at future elections, and that is more likely to be good news for hard-line candidates in the years to come. ..."
"... Iran hawks typically don't understand the country that they obsess over, so perhaps it is not surprising that they haven't thought any of this through, but their most glaring failure is not taking into account the importance of nationalism. ..."
Originally
from: The Futility of Trump's Iran Policy By Daniel LarisonNovember
6, 2018, 10:54 AM • The administration's policy seems sure to fail on its
own terms, and it is also the wrong thing to do.
The Trump administration's plan to throttle
the Iranian economy is as poorly-conceived as it is cruel:
"For ordinary people, sanctions mean unemployment, sanctions mean becoming poor, sanctions
mean the scarcity of medicine, the rising price of dollar," said Akbar Shamsodini, an Iranian
businessman in the oil and gas sector who lost his job six months ago as European companies
started to pull out of Iran in fear of US sanctions.
" By imposing these sanctions, they want to force Iranians to rise up in revolt against
their government but in practice, they will only make them flee their country [bold
mine-DL]," he said, adding that ironically it would be Europe that would have to bear the
burden of such a mass migration.
"We're being squashed here as an Iranian youth who studied here, worked here, the only
thing I'm thinking about now is how to flee my country and go to Europe."
If a foreign power waged an economic war against your country, would you be likely to
respond to that foreign coercion by effectively taking their side against your own government?
Of course not. The idea that Iranians will do the work of their country's enemies by rising up
and toppling the regime has always been far-fetched, but it is particularly absurd to think
that Iranians would do this after they have just seen their economy be destroyed by the actions
of a foreign government.
People normally do not respond to economic hardship and diminishing prospects by risking
their lives by starting a rebellion against the state. As Mr. Shamsodini says above, it is
much more likely that they will leave to find a way to make a living elsewhere. All that
strangling Iran's economy will manage to do is push young and ambitious Iranians to go abroad
while inflicting cruel collective punishment on everyone that remains behind. Making
Iranians poorer and more miserable isn't going to encourage them to be more politically active,
much less rebellious, but will instead force them to focus on getting by. That is likely to
depress turnout at future elections, and that is more likely to be good news for hard-line
candidates in the years to come.
Iran hawks typically don't understand the country that they obsess over, so perhaps it
is not surprising that they haven't thought any of this through, but their most glaring failure
is not taking into account the importance of nationalism. When a foreign power tries
dictating terms to another nation on pain of economic punishment, this is bound to provoke
resentment and resistance. Like any other self-respecting nation, Iranians aren't going to
accept being told what to do by a foreign government, and they are much more likely to band
together in solidarity rather than start an uprising against their own government. The stronger
the nationalist tradition there is in a country, the more likely it is that the reaction to
foreign threats will be one of defiance and unity. It simply makes no sense to think that the
U.S. can pressure a proud nation to capitulate like this.
The administration's policy seems sure to fail on its own terms, and it is also the wrong
thing to do. President Washington exhorted his countrymen in his Farewell Address : "Observe good
faith and justice towards all nations; cultivate peace and harmony with all." The
administration's Iran policy represents the total rejection of that advice. If the U.S.
followed Washington's recommendations, it would not be abrogating an agreement that it had just
negotiated a few years earlier, and it would not be punishing an entire country for the wrongs
of a few. Instead, the U.S. would have built on the success of the earlier negotiations and
would have sought to reestablish normal relations with them.
Alastair Crooke (former UK dip and MI6) knows more about ME than any other white man. He
describes how Jared Kushner became Trump's stovepipe of disinformation on behalf of Netanyahu
and MBS.
The economic sanctions on Iran will be much tighter, beyond what they were, before the
nuclear agreement was signed. "Hit them in their pockets", Netanyahu advised Trump: "if you
hit them in their pockets, they will choke; and when they choke, they will throw out the
ayatollahs"".
This was another bit of 'stovepiped' advice passed directly to the US President. His
officials might have warned him that it was fantasy. There is no example of sanctions alone
having toppled a state; and whilst the US can use its claim of judicial hegemony as an
enforcement mechanism, the US has effectively isolated itself in sanctioning Iran: Europe
wants no further insecurity. It wants no more refugees heading to Europe.
However, the primary problem would not even be the doubtful profitability, but rather
logistics. Iran's oil fields are in the south. To reach Russia, the oil would have to make its
way to Caspian ports in the north. Iran has no main pipelines connecting its southern oil
fields with northern ports. These ports do have the infrastructure for oil, but they were built
to receive oil from swap deals with Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan. They were never meant to
export oil.
Consequently, before any exports could begin, Moscow and Tehran would have to invest in
creating the necessary storage and loading infrastructure at the Iranian ports. Iran would also
need to upgrade its transport infrastructure to deliver oil from the south to the Caspian
seashore -- that would also present a challenge.
Finally,
Russia and Iran would have to substantially increase their tanker fleets in the landlocked
Caspian Sea to exchange large quantities of oil, as the local geography does not allow for the
use of large tankers. In this situation, a planned railroad connection between Russia and Iran via
Azerbaijan could increase the volume of oil moved from Iran to Russia, but this project has not
been completed.
Under these circumstances, Russian officials are demonstrating far greater interest in
resuming the so-called oil-for-products program, under which Russia would broker Iranian oil
abroad in exchange for Iran buying Russian industrial machinery and providing investment
opportunities to Moscow.
Russia and Iran have discussed an oil-for-products initiative for years. Initially, it was
supposed to help Tehran evade the oil trade embargo imposed by the United States, European
Union (EU) and their partners. When those sanctions were lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear
deal, the initiative was expected to compensate for Iran's lack of financial reserves, which
kept Tehran from paying for imports of Russian equipment in hard currency. However, after US
President Donald Trump
withdrew from the deal in 2018 and began reimposing sanctions, the oil-for-products deal
again gained importance as a way to evade sanctions.
In November 2017, Moscow received 1 million barrels from Iran as payment for railroad
equipment imported from Russia, and arrangements were in the works for Russia to buy an
additional 5 million tons of oil in 2018. Indeed, in January and February there were reports of
some oil dispatches transferred from Iran to Russian companies. Yet, by March, they stopped . Moscow still plans
to revive the deal in 2019, though it might never happen.
On the one hand, Russia has had problems finding buyers for Iranian oil.
Concerned about the US sanctions, potential clients refused to purchase it. On the other hand,
Iran's main hopes for sanctions relief are more connected to the EU than Russia. There is a
strong belief in Tehran that Europeans will be able to offset the negative influence of US
economic pressure on Iran. The EU wants to salvage as much of the nuclear deal as possible. Yet
the strength of Tehran's belief is hard to explain: Large EU companies have already pulled out
of Iran. The EU officials Al-Monitor interviewed openly said that Tehran should not expect a
lot from Brussels.
Though Russian and Iranian officials have an on-again, off-again marriage of convenience,
Iran's general public and its elite strongly oppose any substantial deals with Moscow. Russia
is not trusted or welcomed by Iranians and the countries have a long history of
differences . A well-informed and respected Iranian expert on Tehran's foreign policy told
Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that a Russian oil-for-products initiative would be
difficult to implement.
"A large part of Iranian society believes that giving our oil to Russia -- especially at the
discounted prices -- is no better than agreeing to Trump's demands," he said.
The U.S. is going for the jugular with new Iran sanctions intended to punish those who trade
with Teheran. But the U.S. may have a fight on its hands in a possible post- WWII
turning-point...
The next step in the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran has
begun, with the most severe sanctions being re-imposed on the Islamic Republic. Crucially, they
apply not only to Iran but to anyone who continues to do business with it.
It's not yet clear how disruptive this move will be. While the U.S. intention is to isolate
Iran, it is the U.S. that could wind up being more isolated. It depends on the rest of the
world's reaction, and especially Europe's.
The issue is so fraught that disputes over how to apply the new sanctions have even divided
Trump administration officials.
The administration is going for the jugular this time. It wants to force Iranian exports of
oil and petrochemical products down to as close to zero as possible. As the measures are now
written, they also exclude Iran from the global interbank system known as SWIFT.
It is hard to say which of these sanctions is more severe. Iran's oil exports have already
started falling. They
peaked at 2.7 million barrels a day last May -- just before Donald Trump pulled the U.S.
out of the six-nation accord governing Iran's nuclear programs. By early September oil exports
were averaging a million
barrels a day less .
In August the U.S. barred Iran's purchases of
U.S.-dollar denominated American and foreign company aircraft and auto parts. Since then the
Iranian rial has crashed to
record lows and inflation has risen above 30 percent.
Revoking Iran's SWIFT privileges will effectively cut the nation out of the
dollar-denominated global economy. But there are moves afoot, especially by China and Russia,
to move away from a dollar-based economy.
The SWIFT issue has caused infighting in the
administration between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and John Bolton, Trump's national security
adviser who is among the most vigorous Iran hawks in the White House. Mnuchin might win a
temporary delay or exclusions for a few Iranian financial institutions, but probably not much
more.
On Sunday, the second round of sanctions kicked in since Trump withdrew the U.S. from the
2015 Obama administration-backed, nuclear agreement, which lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange
for stringent controls on its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency has
repeatedly certified that the deal is working and the other signatories -- Britain, China,
France, Germany and Russia have not pulled out and have resumed trading with Iran. China and
Russia have already said they will ignore American threats to sanction it for continuing
economic relations with Iran. The key question is what will America's European allies
do?
Europeans React
Europe has been unsettled since Trump withdrew in May from the nuclear accord. The European
Union is developing a trading mechanism to get around U.S. sanctions. Known as a
Special Purpose Vehicle , it would allow European companies to use a barter system similar
to how Western Europe traded with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Juncker: Wants Euro-denominated trading
EU officials have also been lobbying to preserve
Iran's access to global interbank operations by excluding the revocation of SWIFT privileges
from Trump's list of sanctions. They count
Mnuchin,who is eager to preserve U.S. influence in the global trading system, among their
allies. Some European officials, including Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European
Commission, propose making the euro a global trading currency
to compete with the dollar.
Except for Charles de Gaulle briefly pulling France out of NATO in 1967
and Germany and France voting on the UN Security Council against the U.S. invading Iraq in
2003, European nations have been subordinate to the U.S. since the end of the Second World
War.
The big European oil companies, unwilling to risk the threat of U.S. sanctions, have already
signaled they intend to ignore the EU's new trade mechanism. Total SA, the French petroleum
company and one of Europe's biggest, pulled
out of its Iran operations several months ago.
Earlier this month a U.S. official confidently
predicted there would be little demand among European corporations for the proposed barter
mechanism.
Whether Europe succeeds in efforts to defy the U.S. on Iran is nearly beside the point from
a long-term perspective. Trans-Atlantic damage has already been done. A rift that began to
widen during the Obama administration seems about to get wider still.
Asia Reacts
Asian nations are also exhibiting resistance to the impending U.S. sanctions. It is unlikely
they could absorb all the exports Iran will lose after Nov. 4, but they could make a
significant difference. China, India, and South Korea are the first, second, and third-largest
importers of Iranian crude; Japan is sixth. Asian nations may also try to work around the U.S.
sanctions regime after Nov. 4.
India is considering purchases of Iranian crude via a barter system or denominating
transactions in rupees. China, having already said it would ignore the U.S. threat, would like
nothing better than to expand yuan-denominated oil trading, and this is not a hard call: It is
in a protracted trade war with the U.S., and an oil-futures market launched in Shanghai last
spring already claims roughly 14 percent of the global market for "front-month" futures --
contracts covering shipments closest to delivery.
Trump: Unwittingly playing with U.S. long-term future
As with most of the Trump administration's foreign policies, we won't know how the new
sanctions will work until they are introduced. There could be waivers for nations such as
India; Japan is on record asking for one. The E.U.'s Special Purpose Vehicle could prove at
least a modest success at best, but this remains uncertain. Nobody is sure who will win the
administration's internal argument over SWIFT.
Long-term Consequences for the U.S.
The de-dollarization of the global economy is gradually gathering momentum. The orthodox
wisdom in the markets has long been that competition with the dollar from other currencies will
eventually prove a reality, but it will not be one to arrive in our lifetimes. But with
European and Asian reactions to the imminent sanctions against Iran it could come sooner than
previously thought.
The coalescing of emerging powers into a non-Western alliance -- most significantly China,
Russia, India, and Iran -- starts to look like another medium-term reality. This is driven by
practical rather than ideological considerations, and the U.S. could not do more to encourage
this if it tried. When Washington withdrew from the Iran accord, Moscow and Beijing immediately
pledged to support Tehran by staying with its terms.If the U.S. meets significant resistance,
especially from its allies, it could be a turning-point in post-Word War II U.S.
dominance.
Supposedly Intended for New Talks
All this is intended to force Iran back to the negotiating table for a rewrite of what Trump
often calls "the worst deal ever." Tehran has made it clear countless times it has no intention
of reopening the pact, given that it has consistently adhered to its terms and that the other
signatories to the deal are still abiding by it.
The U.S. may be drastically overplaying its hand and could pay the price with additional
international isolation that has worsened since Trump took office.
Washington has been on a sanctions binge for years. Those about to take effect seem
recklessly broad. This time, the U.S. risks lasting alienation even from those allies that have
traditionally been its closest.
+ 45
DR
Members
+ 45
28 posts
Posted
Wednesday
at 03:48 AM
On 10/18/2018 at 11:38 PM,
Jan van Eck
said:
The problem that Qatar faces is one of population and geography. Qatar is dominantly Sunni, but
not the really severe branch that envelops KSA. And it sits next door to Bahrain, which is
apparently about 70% Shia. Qatar also juts way out into the Gulf, and is thus a convenient
sea-land bridge from Iran. Were Iran to go for a land invasion of KSA, then crossing into Qatar
with landing craft, or seizing a Qatari airport, is logical. To prevent this, the USA has built
a major air base in Qatar, specifically to cut off this route. That big US base is a natural
(and juicy) target for Iran should a shooting war break out, and the USA join in against Iran
(and that would be logical).
Meanwhile Qatar has this bizarre and unfathomable dysfunctional relationship with MbS, and a
very difficult relationship with Bahrain, which has cut off diplomatic relations and sent the
Qatari diplomats packing, in 2017. Now Iran is under sanctions, which is stressing their cash
receipts. Iran pushes back, against their ideological and religious rivals and enemies the
Sunnis, by threatening to either invade or to sink tankers with gas coming out of Qatar. The
problem for gas LNG tankers is that the stuff is kept docile by bringing the temp down to minus
176 degrees. If you whack an LNG tanker with a torpedo and breach the container spheres, easy
enough to do, then that ship is likely to blow up; one little spark and all that gas will be a
salient lesson for all the others.
The deterrent effect of this will be that nobody will dare to tempt fate by sending in an LNG
tanker. So Iran can shut down LNG traffic without firing a shot, all they have to do is go
crazy and start threatening. Iran has these subs that can go sit on the bottom of the Gulf and
pop up to launch a torpedo, and everyone knows it. That is one heck of a deterrent.
Meanwhile you have Europe now heavily dependent on gas. Either the Europeans continue to
genuflect to the Russians, which some Europeans at least find unpalatable, or they have to find
an alternative source. That is likely going to be the USA. I predict that the aggressions of
the Russians, and the problems of Qatar in any real ability to fill long-term contracts, and the
threat of
force-majeure
hovering in the background, brings Europe to buy US LNG.
Qatar delivered 80 million tons last year, as number 1 LNG exporter by a long shot. Australia
trailed behind at 56 million, followed by Malaysia 26M, Nigeria 21M, Indonesia 16M, USA 13M, Algeria
12M.
Qatar was responsible for 17M tons exported to EU, followed by Algeria at 10.4M. US Liquefaction
capacity is estimated to match the whole Middle East by 2025 with Calcasieu, LA at 4 bcf/day,
Brownsville, TX at 3.6 bcf/day; Plaquemines at 3.4 bcf/day; and Nikiski Alaska at 2.6 Bcf/day for the
Asian market.
BP has its new 'Partnership Fleet', Shell is chartering heavily and owns a large fleet as well.
Gaslog has over 25 modern large capacity vessels on the water, and the order book for 2019-2020
deliveries is extensive, and they will be available for US to EU transport (Tellurian and Cheniere
have already chartered Gaslog ships for their exclusive use)
The catch here is that Russia is delivering 10.8 million tons per year via Yamal, and their
upcoming Arctic 2LNG that will be on the ice in the Arctic circle adding even more to that production.
They have a fleet delivering year round of Teekay and Dynagas ice breaker LNG carriers, and their
primary clients have been Belgium, France and Spain during their debut ice breaking season. They are
centrally located to maximize deliveries to Asia and Europe.
I doubt that Russia will cut off Europe after spending all that money to secure liquefaction and
transport capabilities in the Arctic, but who knows. They are geared up to deliver to Asia, but could
only do so in the Summer months, or during the Winter months with the assistance of a Nuclear
Icebreaker to lead the ships.
Honestly, I hope that Germany completes the Hamburg LNG Terminal quickly and begins buying US LNG
so that we can diversify from our usual Mexico, S Korea, Japan, Spain, Portugal, Chile, Egypt, Jordan
clientele. Germany consumed over 90 million CBM of natural gas last year (controversial because they
stopped 'officially' disclosing the numbers after 2016, these are OECD estimates from the IEA), and
are getting close to Japan's 120 million CBM.
Qatar/Iran tensions could be the perfect storm for a US to EU energy boom.
"... The key point from my POV was the immediate MSM blanket coverage with every detail explained. No investigation, research, doubts or questions. ..."
"... The US MSM is a propaganda tool and they were pre-prepared, so some US deep state group knew that Bin Salman's bodyguard was heading to the consulate and what they planned to do there (and maybe even set them up to do it). ..."
The Saudis also support the system of petrodollars, which basically requires nearly all
international purchases of petroleum to be paid in dollars. Petrodollars in turn enable the
United States to print money for which there is no backing knowing that there will always be
international demand for dollars to buy oil.
I would emphasize this aspect, except that MbS doesn't so much support the PetroDollar as
the PetroYuan, and this is more than troubling for the US since the PetroDollar is essential to
the dollar's world reserve currency status.
Many American economists have expressed alarm at Saudi Arabia's willingness to borrow in
Chinese yuan, as Riyadh's decision could cause other oil-exporting countries to abandon the
U.S. dollar in favor of the "petro-yuan." A marked decline in the use of the U.S. dollar as
the preferred credit-issuing currency by oil-producing countries would greatly weaken the
U.S. dollar's long-term viability as a global reserve currency.
As the United States views its alliance with Saudi Arabia as the lynchpin of its Middle
East strategy, Washington will likely react strongly if Riyadh uses its influence within OPEC
to strengthen the Chinese yuan. As Saudi Arabia remains dependent on U.S. arms sales to
pursue its geopolitical objectives in the Middle East and counter Iran, intense U.S. pressure
would likely cause Riyadh to distance itself from Beijing, limiting economic integration
between the two countries.
It is no coincidence that these statements from the Crown Prince come days after the
official launch of China's Petroyuan. As every historical trend indicates, the world's most
powerful economy dictates which currency will be used in most international transactions.
This continues to be the case with the US in respect of Dollar, but as China gets set to
fully overtake the US as the world's leading economy, the Dollar will inevitably be replaced
by the Yuan.
China's issuing of oil futures contracts in Petroyuan is the clearest indication yet that
China is keen to make its presence as the world's largest energy consumer known and that it
would clearly prefer to purchase oil from countries like Saudi Arabia in its own currency in
the future, quite possibly in the near future.
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince appears to understand this trajectory in the global energy
markets and furthermore, he realises that in order to be able to leverage the tremendous
amount of US pressure that will come down on Riaydh in order to force Saudi Arbia to avoid
the Petroyuan, Riyadh will need to embrace other potential partners, including China.
More than anything else, the Petroyuan will have an ability to transform Saudi Arabia by
limiting its negative international characteristics that Muhammad bin Salman himself
described. As a pseudo-satellite state of the US during the Cold War, Muhammad bin Salman
admitted that his country's relationship to the US was that of subservience. China does not
make political let alone geopolitical demands of its partners, but China is nevertheless keen
to foster de-escalations in tensions among all its partners based on the win-win principles
of peace through prosperity as articulated on a regular basis by President Xi Jinping.
Thus one could see China's policies of political non-interference rub off on a potential
future Saudi partner, in the inverse way that the US policies of ultra-interventionism are
often forced upon its partners. Thus, whatever ideological views Muhammad bin Salman does or
does not have, he clearly knows where the wind is blowing: in the direction of China.
If the Khashoggi Affair was planned as a warning to Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, then
the US knew exactly what was going to happen in the consulate. It was coupled with an immediate
and orchestrated MSM reaction that was curiously detailed, and delivered at high volume.
Yeah, the US will never get rid of the Saudi regime but will always be dangling the sword
right above their necks, and not just figuratively.
Besides the tangible benefits of the 'strategic' control of oil resources, which the US
believes it needs to control in order to dominate Western Europe and its Asian allies, the
Saudis also function as the CIA's private slush fund for off-the-books operations like
Iran-Contra and many others which surface in the news from time to time. Thus, the CIA
controls such vast sums through the Saudis as to make their budgets effectively
limitless.
During his triumphant tour of the US earlier this year, the Saudi King said something
which I found shocking and incredibly revealing in the way the story dropped like a stone
making absolutely no ripples anywhere in the MSM, nor in the alternative media for that
matter.
When asked about Saudi funding of Wahhabism around the world, he said that 'the allies
(presumably US and UK) had 'asked' the Saudis to 'use their resources' to create the
Madrassas and Wahhabi centers to prevent prevent inroads in Muslim countries by the Soviets
(a premise which is very questionable in the ME context after the fall of Nasser).
Now that seems to be the story of the century because it reveals the operating method of
the CIA wrt the Saudis. And even though MBS was trying to only reveal the distant roots of
the system they put in place, there is absolutely no logical reason why any part of this
system would have been subsequently dismantled; 911 notwithstanding. The continuing
US/Israeli support for and generous use of jihadis in Libya, Syria, etc. only reinforces this
point.
This is ultimately the greatest impediment to anything changing the status quo.
If the consulate was bugged , the Turks must have known the plan to abduct kashooggi.
They let it happen, and now that the abduction turned into a murder, they are accomplice.
US knew exactly what was going to happen in the consulate.
I doubt the US knew "exactly", but they likely knew something bad (a kidnapping
perhaps?) was a strong probability. Alas I wish Khashoggi had been warned. Too it seems
very odd he was willing to set foot in a Saudi embassy anywhere? Maybe Director Haspel can
explain.
Supposedly Khashoggi's smart phone picked it all up and filmed his own murder ??
More likely the room was prepared, and Khashoggi was following US instructions/assurances
in going there. The key point from my POV was the immediate MSM blanket coverage with
every detail explained. No investigation, research, doubts or questions.
The US MSM is a propaganda tool and they were pre-prepared, so some US deep state
group knew that Bin Salman's bodyguard was heading to the consulate and what they planned to
do there (and maybe even set them up to do it).
One question is whether the Halloween show was aimed at removing Bin Salman or just
getting him back in line.
Sibel Edmonds has been following this story from Turkey (she speaks Turkish) and posting her
thoughts and findings on twitter. She seems to think this is about some kind of soft coup
(get rid of MBS b/c getting too cozy with Russia/China, Euroasia). Sibel also says Khashoggi
was actually in Istanbul working with some kind of Soros NGO, maybe for future Color
Revolution/Arab Spring in the Middle East.
Sibel Edmonds @sibeledmonds As Predicted (OnRecord) One Of 3 Objectives in #Scripted
#Khashoggi Case: Get #Trump- Replace BS #RussiaGate with #SaudiGate. (Screenshot Coming In
Reply)- – "Khashoggi fiancee hits at Trump response, warns of 'money' influence"
Sibel Edmonds @sibeledmonds Oct 27
Very Important #Khashoggi Continued: #Khashoggi Relocated To #Turkey To Be a Part of a
Business-ThinkTank-NGO. He set up a business here. He opened Bank Accounts. He bought a
house/expansive Flat. He traveled to #London from #Istanbul paid handsomely by #Neoliberal
#DeepState
Jamal Khashoggi did not die for nothing. His murder was part of the plot to push current
de-facto ruler of the Saudi royal crime family aside.
On the moral side, considering who Khashoggi was, one can only say "serves him right".
However, all the other players involved, the Saudis, Israel, Turkey, and the US, are by no
means morally superior to him. His murder and essential non-reaction by others are useful, as
these events unmasked the hypocrites, who are showing their true colors even as we speak.
Should have added that the Kashoggi murder & extremely strange aftermath, dulled US
political response, smacks of a scene from the film "V for Vendetta."
"There is every indication that the U.S. is not in fact seeking to punish the Saudis for
their alleged role in Khashoggi's apparent murder but instead to punish them for reneging on
this $15 billion deal to U.S. weapons giant Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the THAAD
system.
S-400 gamechanger. / Saudi Plan to Purchase Russian S-400:
@Colin
Wright Thanks for the link. Now we can see that Empire had previously turned against MbS,
and that the scripted Khashoggi affair conveniently arrived on cue – with MbS getting
the full MSM treatment.
In other words the deep state knew exactly what was going to happen in the consulate that
day, set it up and recorded it themselves (nothing to do with Khashoggi's smart phone).
Prince Ahmad bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of King Salman, has returned to Saudi
Arabia after a prolonged absence in London, to mount a challenge to Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman or find someone who can.
The source said that the prince returned "after discussion with US and UK officials",
who assured him they would not let him be harmed and encouraged him to play the role of
usurper.
Meanwhile, in Washington disquiet grows.
Writing in the New York Times, former national security advisor to the Obama
administration and US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice said: "Looking ahead, Washington must
act to mitigate the risks to our own interests. We should not rupture our important
relationship with the kingdom, but we must make clear it cannot be business as usual so
long as Prince Mohammed continues to wield unlimited power.
"It should be United States policy, in conjunction with our allies, to sideline the
crown prince in order to increase pressure on the royal family to find a steadier
replacement," she added.
@Miro23
The mainstream narrative has had "Psyop" written all over it from the first. It wouldn't
surprise me to learn that Khashoggi is still alive and languishing in an undisclosed location
with only the Skripals for company.
@Bill
Jones An interesting bullet-sentence, Bill Jones said to me: "The strange and dulled
aftermath in the US is, I believe, because the lesson was not really meant for US audiences."
Greetings, Bill!
Lessons on dramatic world events are cunningly spun to insouciant &
government-trusting Americans. The weird Jamal Kashoggi murder is an excellent example among
hundreds to choose from!
Fyi, along with FDR administration's cooperation, Zionists helped gin-up war fervor in
order to get the US into World War 2. Such deception resulted in unnecessarily sending-off
another round of American "doughboys" into world war.
Fyr, as recovered from America's Memory Hole Knowledge Disposal / Sewer System," below is
a great Pat Buchanan article titled, "Who forged it?"
"... The fact that the US dollar remains the overwhelming dominant currency for international trade and financial transactions gives Washington extraordinary power over banks and companies in the rest of the world. That's the financial equivalent of a neutron bomb. That might be about to change, though it's by no means a done deal yet. ..."
"... German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told Handelsblatt, a leading German business daily, "Europe should not allow the U.S. to act over our heads and at our expense. For that reason, it's essential that we strengthen European autonomy by establishing payment channels that are independent of the US, creating a European Monetary Fund and building up an independent SWIFT system ." ..."
"... In addition to the recent statements from the German Foreign Minister, France is discussing expanding the Iran SPV to create a means of insulating the EU economies from illegal extraterritorial sanctions like the secondary sanctions that punish EU companies doing business in Iran by preventing them from using the dollar or doing business in the USA. ..."
"... F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine "New Eastern Outlook." https://journal-neo.org/2018/10/23/the-eu-russia-china-plan-to-avert-iran-oil-sanctions/ ..."
It may well be that the unilateral wrecking ball politics of the Trump Administration are
bringing about a result just opposite from that intended. Washington's decision to abandon the
Iran nuclear agreement and impose severe sanctions on companies trading Iran oil as of 4
November, is creating new channels of cooperation between the EU, Russia, China and Iran and
potentially others. The recent declaration by Brussels officials of creation of an unspecified
Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to legally avoid US dollar oil trade and thereby US sanctions,
might potentially spell the beginning of the end of the Dollar System domination of the world
economy.
According to reports from the last bilateral German-Iran talks in Teheran on October 17, the
mechanisms of a so-called Special Purpose Vehicle that would allow Iran to continue to earn
from its oil exports, will begin implementation in the next days. At end of September EU
Foreign Policy chief Federica Mogherini confirmed plans to create such an independent trade
channel, noting, "no sovereign country or organization can accept that somebody else decides
with whom you are allowed to
do trade with ."
The SPV plan is reportedly modelled on the Soviet barter system used during the cold war to
avert US trade sanctions, where Iran oil would be in some manner exchanged for goods without
money. The SPV agreement would reportedly involve the European Union, Iran, China and
Russia.
According to various reports out of the EU the new SPV plan involves a sophisticated barter
system that can avoid US Treasury sanctions. As an example, Iran could ship crude oil to a
French firm, accrue credit via the SPV, much like a bank. That could then be used to pay an
Italian manufacturer for goods shipped the other way, without any funds traversing through
Iranian hands or the normal banking system.A multinational European state-backed financial
intermediary would be set up to handle deals with companies interested in Iran transactions and
with Iranian counter-parties. Any transactions would not be transparent to the US, and would
involve euros and sterling rather than dollars.
It's an extraordinary response to what Washington has called a policy of all-out financial
war against Iran, that includes threats to sanction European central banks and the
Brussels-based SWIFT interbank payments network if they maintain ties to Iran after November 4.
In the post-1945 relations between Western Europe and Washington such aggressive measures have
not been seen before.It's forcing some major rethinking from leading EU policy circles.
New Banking Architecture
The background to the mysterious initiative was presented in June in a report titled,
Europe, Iran and Economic Sovereignty: New Banking Architecture in Response to US Sanctions.
The report was authored by Iranian economist Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Axel Hellman, a Policy
Fellow at the European Leadership Network (ELN), a London-based policy
think tank .
The report proposes its new architecture should have two key elements. First it will be
based on "gateway banks" designated to act as intermediaries between Iranian and EU commercial
banks tied to the Special Purpose Vehicle. The second element is that it would be overseen by
an EU-Office of Foreign Asset Controls or EU-OFAC, modeled on the same at the US Treasury, but
used for facilitating legal EU-Iran trade, not for blocking it. Their proposed EU-OFAC among
other functions would undertake creating certification mechanisms for due diligence on the
companies doing such trade and "strengthen EU legal protections for entities engaged in Iran
trade and investment ."
The SPV reportedly is based on this plan using designated Gateway Banks, banks in the EU
unaffected by Washington "secondary sanctions," as they do not do business in the US and focus
on business with Iran. They might include select state-owned German Landesbanks, certain Swiss
private banks such as the Europäisch-Iranische Handelsbank (EIH), a European bank
established specifically to engage in trade finance with Iran. In addition, select Iran banks
with offices in the EU could be brought in.
Whatever the final result, it is clear that the bellicose actions of the Trump
Administration against trade with Iran is forcing major countries into cooperation that
ultimately could spell the demise of the dollar hegemony that has allowed a debt-bloated US
Government to finance a de facto global tyranny at the expense of others.
EU-Russia-China
During the recent UN General Assembly in New York, Federica Mogherini said the SPV was
designed to facilitate payments related to Iran's exports – including oil –so long
as the firms involved were carrying out legitimate business under EU law. China and Russia are
also involved in the SPV. Potentially Turkey, India and other countries could later join.
Immediately, as expected, Washington has reacted. At the UN US Secretary of State and former
CIA head Mike Pompeo declared to an Iran opposition meeting that he was "disturbed and indeed
deeply disappointed" by the EU plan. Notably he said ""This is one of the of the most
counterproductive measures imaginable for regional and global peace and security." Presumably
the Washington plan for economic war against Iranis designed to foster regional and global
peace and security?
Non-US SWIFT?
One of the most brutal weapons in the US Treasury financial warfare battery is the ability
to force the Brussels-based SWIFT private interbank clearing system to cut Iran off from using
it. That was done with devastating effect in 2012 when Washington pressured the EU to get SWIFT
compliance, a grave precedent that sent alarm bells off around the world.
The fact that the US dollar remains the overwhelming dominant currency for international
trade and financial transactions gives Washington extraordinary power over banks and companies
in the rest of the world. That's the financial equivalent of a neutron bomb. That might be
about to change, though it's by no means a done deal yet.
In 2015 China unveiled its CIPS or China International Payments System. CIPS was originally
viewed as a future China-based alternative to SWIFT. It would offer clearing and settlement
services for its participants in cross-border RMB payments and trade. Unfortunately, a Chinese
stock market crisis forced Beijing to downscale their plans, though a skeleton of
infrastructure is there.
In another area, since late 2017 Russia and China have discussed possible linking their
bilateral payments systems bypassing the dollar. China's Unionpay system and Russia's domestic
payment system, known as Karta Mir, would be
linked directly .
More recently leading EU policy circles have echoed such ideas, unprecedented in the
post-1944 era. In August, referring to the unilateral US actions to block oil and other trade
with Iran, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told Handelsblatt, a leading German business
daily, "Europe should not allow the U.S. to act over our heads and at our expense. For that
reason, it's essential that we strengthen European autonomy by establishing payment channels
that are independent of the US, creating a European Monetary Fund and building up an
independent SWIFT system ."
A Crack in the Dollar Edifice
How far the EU is willing to defy Washington on the issue of trade with Iran is not yet
clear. Most probably Washington via NSA and other means can uncover the trades of the
EU-Iran-Russia-China SPV.
In addition to the recent statements from the German Foreign Minister, France is discussing
expanding the Iran SPV to create a means of insulating the EU economies from illegal
extraterritorial sanctions like the secondary sanctions that punish EU companies doing business
in Iran by preventing them from using the dollar or doing business in the USA. French Foreign
Ministry spokeswoman, Agnes Von der Muhll, stated that in addition to enabling companies to
continue to trade with Iran, that the SPV would, "create an economic sovereignty tool for the
European Union beyond this one case. It is therefore a long-term plan that will protect
European companies in the future from the effect of illegal extraterritorial
sanctions ."
If this will be the case with the emerging EU Special Purpose Vehicle, it will create a
gaping crack in the dollar edifice. Referring to the SPV and its implications, Jarrett Blanc,
former Obama State Department official involved in negotiating the Iran nuclear agreement noted
that, "The payment mechanism move opens the door to a longer-term degradation of US sanctions
power."
At present the EU has displayed effusive rhetoric and loud grumbling against unilateral US
economic warfare and extraterritorial imposition of sanctions such as those against Russia.
Their resolve to potently move to create a genuine alternative to date has been absent. So too
is the case so far in other respects for China and Russia. Will the incredibly crass US
sanctions war on Iran finally spell the beginning of the end of the dollar domination of the
world economy it has held since Bretton Woods in 1945?
My own feeling is that unless the SPV in whatever form utilizes the remarkable technological
advantages of certain of the blockchain or ledger technologies similar to the US-based XRP or
Ripple, that would enable routing payments across borders in a secure and almost instantaneous
way globally, it won't amount to much. It's not that European IT programmers lack the expertise
to develop such, and certainly not the Russians. After all one of the leading blockchain
companies was created by a Russian-born Canadian named Vitalik Buterin. The Russian Duma is
working on new legislation regarding digital currencies, though the Bank of Russia still seems
staunchly opposed. The Peoples' Bank of China is rapidly developing and testing a national
cryptocurrency, ChinaCoin. Blockchain technologies are widely misunderstood, even in government
circles such as the Russian Central Bank that ought to see it is far more than a new "South Sea
bubble." The ability of a state-supervised payments system to move value across borders,
totally encrypted and secure is the only plausible short-term answer to unilateral sanctions
and financial wars until a more civilized order among nations is possible.
Despite the almost unprecedented divisive nature of Donald J. Trump's presidency, he is
chalking up some impressive foreign policy victories, including finally bringing Beijing to
task over its decades long unfair trade practices, stealing of intellectual property rights,
and rampant mercantilism that has given its state-run companies unfair trade advantages and as
a result seen Western funds transform China to an emerging world power alongside the U.S.
Now, it looks as if Trump's recent tirade against America's European allies over its
geopolitically troubling reliance on Russian gas supply may also be bearing fruit. On Tuesday,
The Wall Street Journal reported that earlier this month German Chancellor Angela Merkel
offered government support to efforts to open up Germany to U.S. gas, in what the report called
"a key concession to President Trump as he tries to loosen Russia's grip on Europe's largest
energy market."
German concession
Over breakfast earlier this month, Merkel told a small group of German lawmakers that the
government had made a decision to co-finance the construction of a $576 million liquefied
natural gas (LNG) terminal in northern Germany, people familiar with the development said.
The project had been postponed for at least a decade due to lack of government support,
according to reports, but is now being thrust to the center of European-U.S. geopolitics.
Though media outlets will mostly spin the development, this is nonetheless a geopolitical and
diplomatic win for Trump who lambasted Germany in June over its Nordstream 2 pipeline deal with
Russia.
In a televised meeting with reporters and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg before a
NATO summit in Brussels,
Trump said at the time it was "very inappropriate" that the U.S. was paying for European
defense against Russia while Germany, the biggest European economy, was supporting gas deals
with Moscow.
Both the tone and openness of Trumps' remarks brought scathing rebukes both at home and
among EU allies, including most media outlets. However, at the end of the day, it appears that
the president made a fair assessment of the situation. Russia, for its part, vehemently denies
any nefarious motives over its gas supply contacts with its European customers, though Moscow's
actions in the past dictate otherwise.
Moscow also claims that the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline is a purely commercial venture. The
$11 billion gas pipeline will stretch some 759 miles (1,222 km), running on the bed of the
Baltic Sea from Russian gas fields to Germany, bypassing existing land routes over Ukraine,
Poland and Belarus. It would double the existing Nord Stream pipeline's current annual capacity
of 55 bcm and is expected to become operational by the end of next year.
Russia, who stands the most to lose not only in terms of regional hegemony, but economically
as well, if Germany pushes through with plans to now build as many as three LNG terminals,
always points out that Russian pipeline gas is cheaper and will remain cheaper for decades
compared to U.S. LNG imports.
While that assessment is correct, what Moscow is missing, or at least not admitting, is a
necessary German acquiescence to Washington. Not only does the EU's largest economy need to
stay out of Trump's anti-trade cross hairs, it still needs American leadership in both NATO and
in Europe as well.
Russian advantages
Without U.S. leadership in Europe, a vacuum would open that Moscow would try to fill, most
likely by more gas supply agreements. However, Russia's gas monopoly in both Germany and in
Europe will largely remain intact for several reasons.
First, Russian energy giant Gazprom, which has control over Russia's network of pipelines to
Europe, supplies close to 40 percent of Europe's gas needs.
Second, Russia's gas exports to Europe rose 8.1 percent last year to a record level of 193.9
bcm, even amid concerns over Russia's cyber espionage allegations, and its activities in Syria,
the Ukraine and other places.
Moreover, Russian gas is indeed as cheap as the country claims and will remain that way for
decades. Using a Henry Hub gas price of $2.85/MMBtu as a base, Gazprom
recently estimated that adding processing and transportation costs, the price of
U.S.-sourced LNG in Europe would reach $6/MMBtu or higher – a steep markup.
Henry Hub gas prices are currently trading at $3.151/MMBtu. Over the last 52-week period
U.S. gas has traded between $2.64/MMBtu and $3.82/MMBtu. Russian gas sells for around $5/MMBtu
in European markets and could even trade at lower prices in the future as Gazprom removes the
commodity's oil price indexation.
"The Saudis say they are countering Iran, which backs the Houthis. But the Houthis are an indigenous group with legitimate grievances,
and the war has only enhanced Iranian influence . As has been obvious for some time, the only solution is a negotiated settlement.
But the Saudis have done their best to sabotage a U.N.-led peace process. Talks planned for Geneva in September failed when Saudi
leaders
would not grant safe travel guarantees to Houthi leaders." Bezos' editorial board at WaPo
---------------
Beneath the largely specious argument that Saudi Arabia has the US by the cojones economically lies the true factor that
has caused the two countries to be glued together.
This factor is the Israeli success in convincing the US government, and more importantly, the American people, that Iran is a
deadly enemy, a menace to the entire world, a reincarnation of Nazi Germany, and that Saudi Arabia, a country dedicated to medieval
methods of operation, is an indispensable ally in a struggle to save the world from Iran. The successful effort to convince us of
the reality of the Iranian menace reflects the previous successful campaign to convince us all that Iraq was also Nazi Germany come
again.
The Iran information operation was probably conceived at the Moshe Dayan Center or some other Israeli think tank. and then passed
on in the form of learned papers and conferences to the Foreign Ministry, the Mossad and the IDF. After adoption as government policy
the Foreign ministry and Zionist organizations closely linked to media ownership in the US and Europe were tasked for dissemination
of the propaganda themes involved. This has been a brilliantly executed plan. The obvious fact that Iran is not presently a threat
to the US has had little effect in countering this propaganda achievement.
Last Saturday morning, the Philadelphia based commentator Michael Smerconish openly asked on his popular talk show why it is that
US policy favors the Sunni Muslims over the Shia. i.e., Saudi Arabia over Iran. To hear that was for me a first. This was an obvious
defiance of the received wisdom of the age. I can only hope that the man does not lose his show.
It is a great irony that the barbaric murder of a personally rather unpleasant but defiant exiled journalist has caused re-examination
of the basis and wisdom of giving strategic protection to a family run dictatorship. pl
Erdogan called the Khashoggi murder brutal and premeditated, but did not reveal any damning audio or video evidence. Elijah Magnier
surmises Erdogan extracted a heavy payment from both the Saudis and the Americans in exchange for his relative silence. We shall
see if the economic pressure on Turkey dissipates in the coming days and weeks.
It appears the central pillar of the Borg creed, so eloquently and precisely described here by Colonel Lang, will survive this
bout of heretical thinking. Will journalists and other members of the press be able to keep challenging the Borg? With Trump so
thoroughly assimilated into the Borg, will the "resistance" keep the issue of Saudi perfidy alive? I have my doubts. The Israeli
information operations machine is a juggernaut. Few have the stamina and will to resist it. But it is a fight worth fighting.
"... It's quite unusual to see such unanimous anti-Saudi reactions from the American political class for the assassination of Mr. Khashoggi – who was just a part-time journalist living in U.S – he was not even an American citizen ..."
"... Oil which is extracted by Fracking method that requires high Oil price above $70 to remain competitive in the global Oil market – by simultaneously sanctioning Iran, Venezuela, and the potential sanction of Saudi Arabia from exporting its Oil, the Trump Administration not only reduces the Global Oil supply which will certainly lead to the rise of Oil price, but also it lowers demand for the US Dollar-Greenback in the global oil market which could lead to subtle but steady devaluation of the US dollar. ..."
"... And perhaps that's what Trump Administration was really aiming for all along; a significant decline of the US Dollar Index and the rise of price of Oil which certainly pleases the American Oil Cartel, though at the expense of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – all of which are under some form of U.S sanctions. ..."
"... However gruesome, Mr. Khashoggi's assassination is going to be used by the Trump Administration to help the American Oil Cartel by controlling the Saudi Oil output, hence, to raise the price of Oil and to lower demand for US dollar which is the currency of the global Oil trade. ..."
The overplayed drama of Mr. Khashoggi assassination is going to be used by the American Oil
Cartel to control the Saudis Oil output.
It's quite unusual to see such unanimous anti-Saudi reactions from the American
political class for the assassination of Mr. Khashoggi – who was just a part-time
journalist living in U.S – he was not even an American citizen , so, it's quite
unusual because the same political class remained muted about the Saudis involvement with
ISIS, the bombing and starvation of civilians in Yemen and destruction of Syria, and of
course the Saudis involvement in 9/11 terrorist attack in which 3000 American citizens have
perished in New York, in the heart of America.
So, we must be a bit skeptical about the motive of the American Political Class, as this
again could be just about the OIL Business, but this time around the objective is to help the
American Oil producers as opposed to Oil consumers – with 13.8% of the global daily Oil
production, the US has lately become the world top producer of Crude Oil, albeit, an
expensive Oil which is extracted by Fracking method that requires high Oil price above
$70 to remain competitive in the global Oil market – by simultaneously sanctioning
Iran, Venezuela, and the potential sanction of Saudi Arabia from exporting its Oil, the Trump
Administration not only reduces the Global Oil supply which will certainly lead to the rise
of Oil price, but also it lowers demand for the US Dollar-Greenback in the global oil market
which could lead to subtle but steady devaluation of the US dollar.
And perhaps that's what Trump Administration was really aiming for all along; a
significant decline of the US Dollar Index and the rise of price of Oil which certainly
pleases the American Oil Cartel, though at the expense of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela
– all of which are under some form of U.S sanctions.
However gruesome, Mr. Khashoggi's assassination is going to be used by the Trump
Administration to help the American Oil Cartel by controlling the Saudi Oil output, hence, to
raise the price of Oil and to lower demand for US dollar which is the currency of the global
Oil trade.
@Alistair History has its weird twists.
Early in WWII FDR was reported that USA oil would be depleted in thirty years time.
So FDR sent Harold L Ickes to Saudi Arabia,where at the end of 1944 the country was made the
USA's main oil supplier.
FDR entertained the then Saud in early 1945 on the cruiser Quincy, laying in the Bitter Lakes
near the Suez Canal.
This Saud and his entourage had never seen a ship before, in any case had never been on board
such a ship.
In his last speech to Congress, seated, FDR did not follow what had been written for him,
but remarked 'that ten minutes with Saud taught him more about zionism than hundreds of
letters of USA rabbi's.
These words do not seem to be in the official record, but one of the speech writers,
Sherwood, quotes them in his book.
Robert E. Sherwood, 'Roosevelt und Hopkins', 1950, Hamburg (Roosevelt and Hopkins, New York,
1948)
If FDR also said to Congress that he would limit jewish migration to Palestine, do not now
remember, but the intention existed.
A few weeks later FDR died, Sherwood comments on on some curious aspects of FDR's death, such
as that the body was cremated in or near Warm Springs, and that the USA people were never
informed that the coffin going from Warm Springs to Washington just contained an urn with
ashes.
At present the USA does not seem to need Saudi oil.
If this causes the asserted cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel ?
@Harris ChandlerNow it has made alliances with Israel and between them the tail wags
the dog
The Saudi Royal family and the governments of Israel have always been in cahoots. They
both despise and fear secular governments that are not under their own control in the Middle
East. Witness the fear and dread of both of them of president Nasser in the 1960′s, for
example.
Removing Saudi's contribution of @8.5Mbbls/day from the global oil market would be a blow
that Western countries might not survive.
Looks like somebody in the West want MBS out.
Notable quotes:
"... be honest -- this all seems a bit too convenient for Erdogan, and at a too convenient time. ..."
"... at the moment I cannot believe someone has so much luck like Erdogan has. He stands to gain in the short term, in the long term, tactically and (geo)strategically. From just a stroke of luck, that came to his country. That came to him, for which he didn't even need to get out of his chair? ..."
"... Maybe we're asking the wrong questions. Are factions within the CIA at work, setting up elaborate plans with the ambitious Erdogan to get rid of Trump and MbS, for the sake of what... strategically increasingly important depleting oil fields? ... a better position to strangle Iran? ..."
"... Erdogan doesn't want a Kurdistan martyr in Khasshogi either. He wants to totally controlled-dissent ..."
"... This total psyop, and every piece of 'evidence' in it, is coming from Ankara Intel operatives! ..."
"... Hey, they had two weeks of preparation. You can make a full length Blair Witchcraft in two weeks. ..."
"... Cui bono? Erdogan, Iran Oil transit and EU/RU weapons systems dealers. That's why Germany has jumped on the bandwagon, lol. Expect the whole krew to toe the line, and Putin left with a jumbled mess on the chessboard. ..."
"... Khashoggi has ties to Lockheed Martin through his late uncle Adnan Khashoggi, who used to be one of Saudi Arabia's most powerful weapons dealers. MBS is considering buying Russias S-400 instead of Lockheed Martins 15 billion THADD. Interesting fact but unlikely to be important IMO ..."
"... So regardless of the truth of Khashoggis disappearance there is a Deep State operation in place, the evidence is in the media saturation and persistence and bipartisan support. Its purpose may be as simple as coercing MBS to buy more weapons. Perhaps it may even be that a replacement for MBS even more pro-Israel has been found. ..."
"... Khashoggi is news, because they say its news. They make it news. Why? BC it fits an agenda. Somebody wants MBS out. ..."
"... The bigger play here is bringing turkey back into the western fold. Lose turkey you lose the whole middle east. also, a secondary play - guardianship of Mecca. SA an unreliable partner under mbs. ..."
Khashoggi's murder has transcended questions of foreign policy shaped by values of
democracy, free speech, and due process. The Khashoggi killing raises questions of cold,
unblinking realpolitik.
Three weeks into this affair and with the overwhelming evidence from the Turkish inquiry
and intelligence from US and British services, world leaders have only one question to ask
themselves: is Saudi Arabia safe in the crown prince's hands?
The kingdom is not Libya under Gaddafi. Nor is it Syria under Bashar al-Assad. It is the
world's largest oil producer. It is the region's richest nation.
For better or worse (mainly worse), it is the key Arab state. In the wrong hands, Saudi
Arabia has already proved that it can determine the fate of presidents in Egypt, kidnap
prime ministers from Lebanon, attempt coups in Qatar and, when that fails, blockade it. It
can start wars in Yemen.
The man who runs such a country is therefore a vital strategic Western interest. It is
important that he is mentally stable.
Reuters How the man behind Khashoggi murder ran the killing via Skype
He ran social media for Saudi Arabia's crown prince. He masterminded the arrest of
hundreds of his country's elite. He detained a Lebanese prime minister. And, according to
two intelligence sources, he ran journalist Jamal Khashoggi's brutal killing at the Saudi
consulate in Istanbul by giving orders over Skype.
Posted by: b | Oct 22, 2018 2:45:08 PM | 47
So this guy allegedly working for Public Relations (social media) & security (managing
lists with arrests) for Crown Prince MbS was making absolutely sure that everyone would be
able to follow his actions (attributed to MbS of course). We (the people) were getting fed
minute details of suspects and treatment (during/after the coop in Saudi Arabia) even from the
Alex Jones conspiracy show (been publicly ousted as Fake-News and Mossad ops though since he
was attributing Las Vegas massacre to either MbS or rivals that tried to allegedly assassinate
MbS in Vegas hinting at Iran )
Lo and behold! Las Vegas shooting October 1st 2017. Khassogi murder October 1st
2018! .
Both allegedly MbS involved! Ain't these all suspicious? There is no heaven or hell there is only the.... (let me hear it - The Israeli Intel
Services Sing-Along) sing it with me.... (come on)
Obamabots trying to reverse
history will find it hard to do. That they're trying is significant.
I've seen a few reports musing SKYPE was used during the brief interrogation. If true,
then all advanced intel services will know its content.
Peter AU 1 @55--
Yes, I was aware of that. TASS reports : "Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told reporters on Monday.
"'Yes, we [had] visits, our interministerial top-level delegation went, there were
meetings,' the diplomat said in response to the question about whether Russia still plans to
attend the summit in the wake of Khashoggi's murder."
Russian and Saudi cooperation in the energy field trumps other events. China will also
attend.
I don't know.
I'm having these waves of suspicions. I wouldn't put the current narrative past MbS at all,
that's for sure. And he deserves everything he currently gets -- foremost over Yemen. But -- be honest -- this all seems a bit too convenient for Erdogan, and at a too convenient
time. Id est, a too in convenient time for his opponent, that was until two weeks ago
holding Erdogan's ambitious head in a bucket of water -- Trump. With the midterms only a few weeks away, look who's holding whose head in that bucket, who
is holding whose feet to the fire.
If this is truly a coincidence, I'm beginning to believe Allah is Turkish. But at the moment I cannot believe someone has so much luck like Erdogan has. He stands to
gain in the short term, in the long term, tactically and (geo)strategically. From just a
stroke of luck, that came to his country. That came to him, for which he didn't even need to
get out of his chair?
Maybe we're asking the wrong questions. Are factions within the CIA at work, setting
up elaborate plans with the ambitious Erdogan to get rid of Trump and MbS, for the
sake of what... strategically increasingly important depleting oil fields? ... a better
position to strangle Iran?
Erdogan wants to be New Caliph. That's all this is. Caliphate wars. MbS is Erdogan's blood
enemy. MbS-IL-US is shading the New Caliphate! Duhh! Erdogan doesn't want a Kurdistan martyr
in Khasshogi either. He wants to totally controlled-dissent The Parable of a Man Walked Into an
Embassy New Revelations. Erdogan wants to be supplicated by US and IL for His permission to
transit Syria and Kurdistan. Erdogan wants to be Putin's go-to guy in Ankara for Assad.
This
total psyop, and every piece of 'evidence' in it, is coming from Ankara Intel operatives! Khashoggi could has as easily been re-dressed in a thwab, then frog-marched under the cameras
into the waiting Mercedes. His discarded clothes could have been paraded in front of Ankara's
street cameras by Turks.
Hey, they had two weeks of preparation. You can make a full length Blair Witchcraft in
two weeks.
Cui bono? Erdogan, Iran Oil transit and EU/RU weapons systems dealers. That's why
Germany has jumped on the bandwagon, lol. Expect the whole krew to toe the line, and Putin
left with a jumbled mess on the chessboard.
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Scotch Bingeington , Oct 22, 2018 5:00:53 PM |
link
B, amazing work again, thrilling to read. Though this is a yet unfolding story, you manage to
write about it in a profound way.
Regarding the manner in which MbS operates here and subsequently reacts towards other
people's reactions is certainly telling, at least to me. First off, the coercion –
"come back or else " – flat out. The ruthlessness vis-à-vis the victim, the
complete disregard for that individual's life. The crassness of the methods applied. The
carelessness concerning the risks and the half-assed way in which this exercise, by and
large, was carried out. Once word got out, being utterly taken by surprise that this murder
should draw so much attention and should shock and outrage people – like, at all!
Followed by, of course, a sudden switch from ever-so-charming to furious rage.
That's textbook psychopathic behavior. MbS is a psychopath. I don't mean that as an insult,
but as the descriptive term and category that it is. It was already palpable in all the other
incidents, which was duly pointed out here by people at the Moon. To me, it's also in his
eyes. But the thing is, as such, MbS is a befitting representation of his country. The
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the way that it works, how it's organized, its history, its outlook
on the world – it's the equivalent among states of a psychopath. I certainly agree, the
sooner MbS gets kicked off the stage, the better for them and for us. But he'll be replaced
and SA will still be the equivalent among states of a psychopath – and act accordingly.
There's much more to be done than just put an end to MbS' games. In that vein, I'd be
appalled if Russia were to seriously consider sucking up to SA should they break away from
the US orbit.
On another aspect: I don't really see how this would seriously upset Trump. Sure, it's a huge
challenge and a lot of accommodating will have to be done, which is always annoying. But if
Congress were to take action, why shouldn't he give in and play along?
At long last, Valdai Club questions about Saudi-Russian relations were added to transcript.
Here is the relevant passage, which mostly repeats what was posted from news stories:
Putin: "If someone understands it and believes that a murder has been committed, then I
hope that some evidence will be presented and we will adopt relevant decisions based on this
evidence. This gives me a pretext to say something else.
"From time to time, there are steps taken against Russia and even sanctions are imposed,
as I have repeatedly said, on the basis of flimsy excuses and pretexts. They groundlessly
claim that we have allegedly used chemical weapons, even though, incidentally, we have
destroyed our chemical weapons, while the United States has failed to do so despite the
obligation to that effect it assumed.
"So, there is no proof against Russia but steps are being taken. According to claims, the
murder was committed in Istanbul, but no steps are being taken.
"Uniform approaches to problems of this kind should be sorted. To reiterate: Our policy
towards Saudi Arabia has evolved over a long period of time, over many years. Of course, it
is a misfortune that a man has disappeared, but we must understand what has really
happened."
The policy investment "over many years" isn't one Russia will suddenly jettison. Yemen is
obviously a much greater tragedy but Russian-Saudi relations haven't suffered -- Geopolitics
creates strange bed-fellows. Russia's international relations are built upon fundamental
principles of International Law of which the sanctity of Sovereignty reigns supreme. As much
as we may dislike it, the Khashoggi Affair falls within the realm of an internal Saudi affair
although it occurred in Turkey; thus, it's up to Saudis to solve. Putin's pointing to the
Double Standards relates to that reality. Would Russia sell weapons for Saudi to use on
Yemen? I have no idea, although I'd like to think it wouldn't. It's quite possible some new
inroads have opened for Russian diplomacy, but they remain hidden from public.
Khashoggi has ties to Lockheed Martin through his late uncle Adnan Khashoggi, who used to
be one of Saudi Arabia's most powerful weapons dealers. MBS is considering buying Russias
S-400 instead of Lockheed Martins 15 billion THADD. Interesting fact but unlikely to be
important IMO
This Khashoggi story never lasts more than a week in MSM unless there is a psyops
operation in place by the Deep State. Media saturation and persistence is the key to any
operation. Inconvenient truths are reported and then dropped and forgotten. Lies without
evidence are repeated constantly until they are accepted as truths, in some cases
inconsequential truths that are convenient serve the same purpose
So regardless of the truth of Khashoggis disappearance there is a Deep State operation
in place, the evidence is in the media saturation and persistence and bipartisan support. Its
purpose may be as simple as coercing MBS to buy more weapons. Perhaps it may even be that a
replacement for MBS even more pro-Israel has been found. Israels influence on the media
is not neglible. This saturation coverage does not happen without them supporting it or at
least not using their influence to suppress it Another more disturbing possibility should MBS
stand his ground , is conditioning the people to accept MBS as the new OBL and Saudis
Wahhabis as the new AQ and repeating history.
There simply is no way to know. Just have to watch and see but whatever it is probably
wont be good
The Saudi bmobing - with US bmobs - of the Yemeni School Bus Full of Babies was truly and
completely horrifying - rotten and utterly detestable by anyone's standards (except for
Trump, Hillary, Bill, Bolton, Graham, Biden, All the Bush's, Rick Scott and etc.)
And Newsworthy. But it was, instead, crickets chirping in that deep east Texas
nighttime.
Khashoggi is news, because they say its news. They make it news. Why? BC it fits an
agenda. Somebody wants MBS out.
The bigger play here is bringing turkey back into the western fold. Lose turkey you lose
the whole middle east. also, a secondary play - guardianship of Mecca. SA an unreliable
partner under mbs.
In excerpts from the interview released by
CNN , Jones asked Kushner whether it is wise to trust MbS to oversee Saudi Arabia's
investigation, given that he's also the prime suspect. Kushner, who, in the absence of a US
ambassador to KSA, has been handling the kingdom's relationship with the Trump administration
directly via his friendship with MbS, said the US will examine facts from "multiple
places."
Jones: Do you trust the Saudis to investigate themselves?
Kushner: We're getting facts in from multiple places. Once those facts come in, the
Secretary of State will work with our national security team to help us determine what we
want to believe, and what we think is credible, and what we think is not credible.
Jones: Do you see anything that seems deceptive.
Kushner: I see things that seem deceptive every day I see them in the Middle East and in
Washington. We have our eyes wide open. The president is looking out for America's strategic
interests...the president is fully committed to doing that."
Given their close relationship, media reports have implied that Kushner has been acting as
an unofficial liaison of sorts to MbS since the crisis began (it has also been reported that
the Crown Prince initially didn't understand why the backlash to Khashoggi's murder had been so
intense). In light of this, Jones asked Kushner what advice, if any, he has given the Saudi
royal during their conversations (to be sure, MbS has also spoken with President Trump directly
on the phone). In a story published over the weekend,
the Washington Post reported that Trump has privately expressed doubts about MbS's story,
and has also lamented his close ties with Kushner, fearing they could be a liability. But
during a phone interview, the president was somewhat more sanguine, pointing out that both
Kushner and MbS are relatively young for the amount of power they wield.
"They're two young guys. Jared doesn't know him well or anything. They are just two young
people. They are the same age. They like each other, I believe," Trump said.
Kushner's interview followed
reports published Sunday night that MbS tried to convince Khashoggi to return to Riyadh
during a brief phone call with the journalist after he had been detained at the Saudi consulate
Khashoggi refused, reportedly because he feared that he would be killed, and was subsequently
killed anyway. Adding another macabre twist to the saga of Khashoggi's murder and
dismemberment, Surveillance footage released Monday showed one of the Saudi operatives leaving
the consulate wearing Khashoggi's clothes with the suspected intent of serving as
a "decoy" to bolster the kingdom's claims that Khashoggi had left after receiving his
papers. It was later reported that Turkish investigators had found an abandoned car that once
belonged to the Saudi consulate.
We imagine we'll be hearing more about these strange developments on Tuesday, when Turkish
President Erdogan is expected to deliver a report on the killings.
Why is "everyone" so ******* upset about the Muslim Brothernood, green-card holding
journalist being offed? I mean, folks in the M.E. are murdered all the ******* time.
Journalists are not immune. Especially ones that are actually agitators that write ****. This
whole thing is ********. How do I know? Just look at the reactions. Media everywhere to level
11.. What about Stormy Daniels? The Playboy bunny? Ford? Scandal # 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47 ,
etc??
Saudis murder folks . Turkey murders folks. Turkey crushed a coup a couple years ago and
60K folks disappeared. I don't remember the US media demanding Obama " do something" about
Turkey immediately, do you? Seriously.
true. And I'm sure the CIA gets in on some very disgusting killings as well. Along with
the Mossad and Mi6 (2 groups that get little attention but should).
" Jones: Do you trust the Saudis to investigate themselves?"
"Kushner: We're getting facts in from multiple places. Once those facts come in, the
Secretary of State will work with our national security team to help us determine what we
want to believe , and what we think is credible, and what we think is not credible."
Jones: Do you see anything that seems deceptive.
Kushner:
NO
I (bullshitbullshitbullshit) see things that seem deceptive every day I see them in
the Middle East and in Washington. We have our eyes wide open (bullshitbullshitbullshit.
The president is looking out for America's strategic interests...the president is fully
committed to hanging me out to dry . After that - ho noze bubelah ."
(Can I sukie suckie now black master?
FIFT
All will be well when the head honcho sends this YidTwat to be Royal Commissioner in
either Greenlnd or Antarctica.
Have you heard the latest about the Peace Deal of All Times Kushner has been working on?
And going to deliver any day now... soon...really soon.
After all this time what it comes down to is a leveraged buyout proposal. The buyout is
cash for Palestinians to give in to what Israel's far right wants, give up their land and
get the hell out of Dodge if they can't live with the remnants.. The leverage is Trump
trying to starve them out and Kushner's friends in the IDF Palace Guard at the ready to
pile drive anyone who resists.
" All this nonsense depends on the largesse of Saudi Arabia – whose bungling crown
prince appears to be arguing with his kingly father, who does not want to abandon the
original Saudi initiative for a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital –
"
Jared Kushner was communicating with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)
prior to and after the Saudis brutally murdered Washington-based journalist Jamal
Khashoggi
Wayne Madsen - the author of the above - also reckons it was Kushner that supplied the
Saudi Prince HIT LIST to MbS a few months back - to clear the deck for "closer
co-operation" with ISISrael
Unfortunately, the only crime here is that the Turks have no decent respect for the
consular as sovereign territory, thus they are revoking Saudi rights and are operating as
an act of territorial aggression as the US has done to the Russians. Civility is braking
down and one has to ask one's self, for who's benefit.. The Turks are not going to benefit.
Khashoggi was going to die one way or another, so he made a show of it.. Spy vs. spy.
The USA has in the past just 'droned' them (as Hilterary was eager to reveal).
Perhaps you missed the regime change that happened last year, a globally significant
event, by the way.
Khashoggi was on the wrong side of that, and has stayed away from SA ever since, sniping
from the sidelines. MBS has lots of reasons not to like him.
However, his power base was removed when MBS hung his mates up by their heels in the
Hilton Hotel. He was not worth bothering with. So why was he killed then?
Possibly, he was not killed, only used as a foil to bring down hell fire and damnation
on MBS. He probably walked out the back, just as the SA said when this first came out. Now
Marketwatch has a story saying a man dressed in Khashogggi's "still warm clothes" was
photographed going into the Blue Mosque. Yeah, right:
Yes! And tying it together with the Las Vegas Mandalay Bay-Harvest Festival shooting,
and the video of the LV SWAT team escorting a person who looked like MBS through a casino
suggests that there was a 'failed' assassination attempt.
And the fact that Prince Al Talweed, a co-owner of top floors of Manadaly Bay with Bill
Gates, had tweeted his loathing of Trump...
The "Crown" (British or SA or many others) is inviolable. They take threats to
sovereignty seriously unlike Americans who have outsourced Monetary Sovereignty to their
Banks, Military and Economic Sovereignty to their Corporations.
This kid's a ****. A real Chabad Lubavitch **** with a criminal father who I am going to
hazard has never worked a hard day in his life. (Both father and son)
Remember Dan Aykroyd from "Trading Places"? Kushner is like that, only not funny. And
jewish.
Kushner was parachuted into the White House on the sole basis of his being the
President's son-in-law.
He quickly ascended to the top rungs of power in our Nation even receiving Top Security
Clearance and has been privy to our most tightly guarded secrets ever since.
This little ********** has turned out to be a tremendous thorn in our side facilitated
by the President's pleasure.
Is everyone blind? This ******* nobody is practically running the whole show in the
Middle East and with what credentials?
He's a power *** with vast connections, having been chosen to be the front man for the
destruction of America as we know it.
Exactly, plus his arrogance and stupidity has made the middle east even more fraught
with problems.
Just like Trump moving the embassy to Jerusalem; this has caused nothing but
problems.
Going in with no background in the middle east, without knowing anything except what was
told to him in Hebrew school is a recipe for disaster which is unfolding before our
eyes.
Skinny. Stiff. Plastic. Rather defiant, somewhat snotty. I have no reason to decide
whether I like him or not but Kushner comes across to me as somebody I would not trust as
far as I could throw him. Mind you that's quite a distance since I think he probably weighs
about 109 lb.
The CNN interviewer is Van Jones.
This is the same Van Jones who was Obama's "Green Jobs Czar" and was forced to resign his
position in 2009 because of his radical left wing background.
What the hell is Kushner doing in a position of power in the White House, what are his
qualifications for whatever post he holds ?
What the hell is anyone doing dealing with these animals who dress up in dresses? They
behead people in public squares, mutilate people, oppress woman, kill homos, etc. Real
crazy degenerates that got ahold of lots of money via their oil.
Why is "everyone" so ******* upset about the Muslim Brothernood, green-card holding
journalist being offed? I mean, folks in the M.E. are murdered all the ******* time.
Journalists are not immune. Especially ones that are actually agitators that write ****.
This whole thing is ********. How do I know? Just look at the reactions. Media everywhere
to level 11.. What about Stormy Daniels? The Playboy bunny? Ford? Scandal # 42, 43, 44, 45,
46, 47 , etc??
Saudis murder folks . Turkey murders folks. Turkey crushed a coup a couple years ago and
60K folks disappeared. I don't remember the US media demanding Obama " do something" about
Turkey immediately, do you? Seriously.
true. And I'm sure the CIA gets in on some very disgusting killings as well. Along with
the Mossad and Mi6 (2 groups that get little attention but should).
" Jones: Do you trust the Saudis to investigate themselves?"
"Kushner: We're getting facts in from multiple places. Once those facts come in, the
Secretary of State will work with our national security team to help us determine what
we want to believe , and what we think is credible, and what we think is not
credible."
Jones: Do you see anything that seems deceptive.
Kushner:
NO
I (bullshitbullshitbullshit) see things that seem deceptive every day I see them in
the Middle East and in Washington. We have our eyes wide open
(bullshitbullshitbullshit. The president is looking out for America's strategic
interests...the president is fully committed to hanging me out to dry . After that - ho
noze bubelah ."
(Can I sukie suckie now black master?
FIFT
All will be well when the head honcho sends this YidTwat to be Royal Commissioner in
either Greenlnd or Antarctica.
Have you heard the latest about the Peace Deal of All Times Kushner has been working on?
And going to deliver any day now... soon...really soon.
After all this time what it comes down to is a leveraged buyout proposal. The buyout is
cash for Palestinians to give in to what Israel's far right wants, give up their land and
get the hell out of Dodge if they can't live with the remnants.. The leverage is Trump
trying to starve them out and Kushner's friends in the IDF Palace Guard at the ready to
pile drive anyone who resists.
" All this nonsense depends on the largesse of Saudi Arabia – whose bungling crown
prince appears to be arguing with his kingly father, who does not want to abandon the
original Saudi initiative for a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital –
"
Jared Kushner was communicating with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)
prior to and after the Saudis brutally murdered Washington-based journalist Jamal
Khashoggi
Wayne Madsen - the author of the above - also reckons it was Kushner that supplied the
Saudi Prince HIT LIST to MbS a few months back - to clear the deck for "closer
co-operation" with ISISrael
Unfortunately, the only crime here is that the Turks have no decent respect for the
consular as sovereign territory, thus they are revoking Saudi rights and are operating as
an act of territorial aggression as the US has done to the Russians. Civility is braking
down and one has to ask one's self, for who's benefit.. The Turks are not going to benefit.
Khashoggi was going to die one way or another, so he made a show of it.. Spy vs. spy.
The USA has in the past just 'droned' them (as Hilterary was eager to reveal).
lose
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I care because I am hoping this assassination will destroy our 80 year old relationship
with The House of Saud which is the epicenter of Wahhabism that brought us 9/11, the ISIS
headchoppers and much more.
Perhaps you missed the regime change that happened last year, a globally significant
event, by the way.
Khashoggi was on the wrong side of that, and has stayed away from SA ever since, sniping
from the sidelines. MBS has lots of reasons not to like him.
However, his power base was removed when MBS hung his mates up by their heels in the
Hilton Hotel. He was not worth bothering with. So why was he killed then?
Possibly, he was not killed, only used as a foil to bring down hell fire and damnation
on MBS. He probably walked out the back, just as the SA said when this first came out. Now
Marketwatch has a story saying a man dressed in Khashogggi's "still warm clothes" was
photographed going into the Blue Mosque. Yeah, right:
Yes! And tying it together with the Las Vegas Mandalay Bay-Harvest Festival shooting,
and the video of the LV SWAT team escorting a person who looked like MBS through a casino
suggests that there was a 'failed' assassination attempt.
And the fact that Prince Al Talweed, a co-owner of top floors of Manadaly Bay with Bill
Gates, had tweeted his loathing of Trump...
The "Crown" (British or SA or many others) is inviolable. They take threats to
sovereignty seriously unlike Americans who have outsourced Monetary Sovereignty to their
Banks, Military and Economic Sovereignty to their Corporations.
This kid's a ****. A real Chabad Lubavitch **** with a criminal father who I am going to
hazard has never worked a hard day in his life. (Both father and son)
Remember Dan Aykroyd from "Trading Places"? Kushner is like that, only not funny. And
jewish.
Kushner was parachuted into the White House on the sole basis of his being the
President's son-in-law.
He quickly ascended to the top rungs of power in our Nation even receiving Top Security
Clearance and has been privy to our most tightly guarded secrets ever since.
This little ********** has turned out to be a tremendous thorn in our side facilitated
by the President's pleasure.
Is everyone blind? This ******* nobody is practically running the whole show in the
Middle East and with what credentials?
He's a power *** with vast connections, having been chosen to be the front man for the
destruction of America as we know it.
Exactly, plus his arrogance and stupidity has made the middle east even more fraught
with problems.
Just like Trump moving the embassy to Jerusalem; this has caused nothing but
problems.
Going in with no background in the middle east, without knowing anything except what was
told to him in Hebrew school is a recipe for disaster which is unfolding before our
eyes.
There have been so many attempts at selling advertising with this article the author
says, "to deliver a report on the killings." I thought they only chopped up one cash-hoggi
now they are trying to turn it into two. What does the author think it was cactus they
killed?
Skinny. Stiff. Plastic. Rather defiant, somewhat snotty. I have no reason to decide
whether I like him or not but Kushner comes across to me as somebody I would not trust as
far as I could throw him. Mind you that's quite a distance since I think he probably weighs
about 109 lb.
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It was at least fifty million $1 votes from Israel laundered through Trump supporter and
uber-Zionist Sheldon Adelson's casinos in Macau. Steve Wynn was likely in on that action
too.
Until America wakes up and gets dirty money out of your "(s)elections" you will be
hostage to foreign powers.
No one asked Kavanaugh if he thought "Citizens United" was settled law.
IDK if MbS had anything to do with the confrontation, or it was some 9th cousin royal
guard attempting to give Khashoggi an offer he couldn't refuse. Nobody will ever know what
happened. Just another MSM Piece Beyond Understanding.
Remember though, we *do know* that Obama and Rodham and their WH crew sat there in the
White House Situation Room, watching *live satellite feed* of Ghaddafi's final movements, the
half-meter long bayonet stabbing bloody anal rape to death.
Then Rodham sat there, right afterward, drenched in dewey musk, chortling a paraphrase
from Caesar, "We came, we saw, he died! CAWW, CAWW, CAWW!" Monsters!!
Then everyone forgot about it, like it never happened! Poor! The Lion of Africa, like the
Lion of Panjshir, just another hot blip on Deep State's radar. Same sh*t, different day.
Fahged abahd et.
So why is Khashoggi, a non-entity, *still in the media cross-hairs?!* Pre-election psyop,
and extortion. Saudis, Chinese and Russians want to dump their $Ts in junk 1.88% US
Treasuries. That will implode the US budget deficit, and the SS and MC Trust Funds as 'buyers
of last resort'.
What might Erdogan want out of this gift that has fallen into his lap?
Gulen out of the the US and into his hands.
CIA won't do that, but Gulen is what Erdogan wants from US. He gave up the "Pastor"
without getting anything.
Pompeo tried to pressure him over S-400s. That was laughed off by Ankara.
Erdogan has two big worries: Kurds and Gulen.
He has many desires (dreams, delusions).
But he knows the forces internally that threaten his existence and success as ruler. Already,
the Muslim Brotherhood has suffered great losses.
This noose around MBS's neck that Erdogan may be holding is leverage against the CIA
specifically. It was information handed by Jared Kushner to MBS that led to this and others
being liquidated by the Saudis. Erdogan might be able to tie it all together. That would be
leverage the US cannot ignore. The entire anti-Iran strategy depends on Jared-Bibi and
MBS.
IDK if MbS had anything to do with the confrontation, or it was some 9th cousin royal
guard attempting to give Khashoggi an offer he couldn't refuse. Nobody will ever know what
happened. Just another MSM Piece Beyond Understanding.
Remember though, we *do know* that Obama and Rodham and their WH crew sat there in the
White House Situation Room, watching *live satellite feed* of Ghaddafi's final movements, the
half-meter long bayonet stabbing bloody anal rape to death.
Then Rodham sat there, right afterward, drenched in dewey musk, chortling a paraphrase
from Caesar, "We came, we saw, he died! CAWW, CAWW, CAWW!" Monsters!!
Then everyone forgot about it, like it never happened! Poor! The Lion of Africa, like the
Lion of Panjshir, just another hot blip on Deep State's radar. Same sh*t, different day.
Fahged abahd et.
So why is Khashoggi, a non-entity, *still in the media cross-hairs?!* Pre-election psyop,
and extortion. Saudis, Chinese and Russians want to dump their $Ts in junk 1.88% US
Treasuries. That will implode the US budget deficit, and the SS and MC Trust Funds as 'buyers
of last resort'.
@ 16 "The whole mega-chart of crossed alliances has become so confused nobody knows what is
going on, who to support, who to trust to have an impact, what to do, etc."
Keeping in mind the anti Israel faction helps keep track of, or make sense of alliances.
Syria, Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait headed that way. These are forming into a
faction of strange bedfellows with the US moving their embassy to Jerusalem and the other
Trump machinations with Israel being the catalyst.
Undisputed :::
Saudi Arabia Wahabbism is a leader of Mideast mayhem.
USA supports Saudi Arabia in the ongoing mayhem
So does Canada.
So does Britain.
and France.
Kashoggi a Washington Post reporter.
Washington Post big disseminator of lies.
Same with the New York Times
Both WP and NYT hid the Saudi USA CANADA BRITAIN FRENCH supported aggression on Yemen.
But this is WP and NYT opportunity to disparage Trump.
Therefore it is big "nooze." To be sensationalized. however.
Nothing new to report at all. Same old.
But shame on the alt for sucking along. Stupid is as stupid does.
One WP "journalist" a bigget casualty ? But, hundreds of thousands Syrian and Yemen
casualties? No pro blem for NYT and WP s--t heds.
Grow up, world.
Details continue to spill out. Now, interior royal princes are reported disturbed and trying
to contact the King, but prevented by MbS. A General Mutrib, very close to MbS, one of his
seven bodyguards at the Consulate,left Istanbul before the others with a large bag while the
others celebrated at a dinner re "mission accomplished."
The latest WHAAT? out of me is that MbS spoke to Khashoggi by telephone moments before he
was murdered. If true, this directly shows the lies the man is capable of. Maybe the US
senators calling MbS a liar know something we don't. Jared is in the doghouse for his
complicity in enabling MbS to deal with his critics.
Trump is floundering from "credible" to "deception," as he floundered re Kavanaugh ("both
seemed convincing," he said after the late September hearing with Christine Ford) before
wiping her up one side and down the other with demonizing a few days later. I think the
damage problem here for the midterms is significant, and Trump will not retain the House and
perhaps not the Senate either.
Why this case should rivet so much attention whereas deaths of 40 kids on a bus, then 17
more a few days ago, etc. etc. do not, seems a case of gag me, where is my vomit trough taken
a step too far, possibly because US friends of Khashoggi in the government, CIA, MSM got
upset. And let's not forget the rumor Khash was in on a CIA plot to establish a commission to
run SA (one of a three member board) in the interests of the US. Could add to why MbS was
keen on shutting him up.
I wouldn't think the detail of the fake person in his clothes leaving the back door is
"gratuitous, unneeded" in that it shows once again the lies spun from the Saudis in their
desperate scrabbling as this thing falls apart.
The Turkish government's vacillations and zigzagging in the face of the country's economic
woes reflect how squeezed it has become economically and politically and how concerned it is
about it with elections scheduled for March.
. . .
In mid-2018, Turkey's external debt stock stood at $457 billion. Over the next 12 months, the
country will need $181 billion to roll over maturing debts. The financing of the current
account deficit requires another $40 billion, at the least, though the gap has begun to
decrease under the impact of the economic downturn.
In total, Turkey needs a minimum of $220 billion over the next 12 months, or roughly $18
billion a month, but it has become a high-risk country for creditors. Its risk premium,
reflected in credit default swaps, has decoupled from those of other emerging economies,
hovering above 400 basis points despite occasional drops. In sum, borrowing has become more
expensive for Turkey.
Short Term External Debt Statistics [Central Bank of Turkey]
8/18
As of the end of August 2018, short-term external debt stock was realized as USD 175.2
billion, based on the remaining maturities calculated using external debt data, which was 1
year or less due to the original maturity. The stock's 18.2 billion US dollars portion,
composed of resident banks and the private sector's debts to foreign branches and
subsidiaries are in Turkey. When evaluated on a debtor basis, it is observed that the public
sector has a share of 18.1%, the Central Bank and the private sector have a share of 81% and
0.9%, respectively.
The Duran just published an article titled "Converting Khashoggi into Cash"
It points out that The Turkish/Saudi conflict goes back a long way as the "The first Saudi
state, the Emirate of Diriyah, went belly up in 1818, with the death of head of the house of
al-Saud, Abdullah bin Saud – actually, literally with his head hung on a gate in
Constantinople by Erdogan's Ottoman predecessor, Sultan Mahmud II." https://theduran.com/converting-khashoggi-into-cash/October
21, 2018
"... it's quite unusual to see such unanimous anti-Saudi reactions from the American political class for the assassination of Mr. Khashoggi – who was just a part-time journalist living in U.S – he was not even an American citizen ..."
"... So, it's quite unusual because the same political class remained muted about the Saudis involvement with ISIS, the bombing and starvation of civilians in Yemen and destruction of Syria, and of course the Saudis involvement in 9/11 terrorist attack in which 3000 American citizens have perished in New York, in the heart of America ..."
"... However gruesome, Mr. Khashoggi's assassination is going to be used by the Trump Administration to help the American Oil Cartel by controlling the Saudi Oil output, hence, to raise the price of Oil and to lower demand for US dollar which is the currency of the global Oil trade. ..."
"... The seemingly well-connected news outlet Voltairenet claims that there has been a plot against MbS and that Khashoggi was involved in it. ..."
"... It fares a atrocial war on Yemen, shits on international laws and regulations, just like Israel, Why would they not murder a juorno entering their land? Now this juorno was a man revealing in practices done by head choppers, so I will not cry much. It just shows these people are savages, all of them. What should be done ? You judge. ..."
"... I've read on Zerohedge that Khashoggi was on the verge of publishing an article about the Saudi's and CIA's involvement in 9/11, specifically about his former boss Turki al-Faisal, who ran Saudi intelligence for 23 years then abruptly resigned 10 days before 9/11 without giving any reason. ..."
"... Kashiggi's not a reformer. He's hard core Muslim Brotherhood ..."
The overplayed drama of Mr. Khashoggi assassination is going to be used by the American Oil
Cartel to control the Saudis Oil output.
it's quite unusual to see such unanimous anti-Saudi reactions from the American political
class for the assassination of Mr. Khashoggi – who was just a part-time journalist
living in U.S – he was not even an American citizen.
So, it's quite unusual because the
same political class remained muted about the Saudis involvement with ISIS, the bombing and
starvation of civilians in Yemen and destruction of Syria, and of course the Saudis
involvement in 9/11 terrorist attack in which 3000 American citizens have perished in New
York, in the heart of America.
So, we must be a bit skeptical about the motive of the American Political Class, as this
again could be just about the OIL Business, but this time around the objective is to help the
American Oil producers as opposed to Oil consumers – with 13.8% of the global daily Oil
production, the US has lately become the world top producer of Crude Oil, albeit, an
expensive Oil which is extracted by Fracking method that requires high Oil price above $70 to
remain competitive in the global Oil market – by simultaneously sanctioning Iran,
Venezuela, and the potential sanction of Saudi Arabia from exporting its Oil, the Trump
Administration not only reduces the Global Oil supply which will certainly lead to the rise
of Oil price, but also it lowers demand for the US Dollar-Greenback in the global oil market
which could lead to subtle but steady devaluation of the US dollar.
And perhaps that's what
Trump Administration was really aiming for all along; a significant decline of the US Dollar
Index and the rise of price of Oil which certainly pleases the American Oil Cartel, though at
the expense of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – all of which are under some form of US sanctions.
However gruesome, Mr. Khashoggi's assassination is going to be used by the Trump
Administration to help the American Oil Cartel by controlling the Saudi Oil output, hence, to
raise the price of Oil and to lower demand for US dollar which is the currency of the global
Oil trade.
This seems to explain the motive to kill him. A few mildly critical articles by
Khashoggi's pen scarcely seem to be sufficient for such a high-profile murder, even if we
take into account that MbS appears to be impulsive and little capable of thinking ahead.
First of all, when has the death of a journalist made any difference in the relations between
countries? Why act like it should now?
Second, Khashoggi was not simply a journalist -- he was a member of the Saudi elite, an
Intelligence officer, and an activist for the Muslim Brotherhood (the Die Welt article
established that).
Third, the real question is how this story came out, and why it has come out as it has
("journalist murdered by police state agents"). Turkey pushed this story out into the open.
Apparently a calculation that the crown prince is losing ground, and an effort (perhaps
assisted by bribes) to align the AK party with the crown prince's enemies in Saudi.
It fares a atrocial war on Yemen, shits on international laws and regulations, just like
Israel, Why would they not murder a juorno entering their land?
Now this juorno was a man revealing in practices done by head choppers, so I will not cry
much.
It just shows these people are savages, all of them.
What should be done ? You judge.
It seems quite curious why MBS would go through such trouble to waste a guy whose only crime
was writing a few low key disparaging articles about him that nobody read. Maybe there's more
to this story than meets the eye.
I've read on Zerohedge that Khashoggi was on the verge of publishing an article about the
Saudi's and CIA's involvement in 9/11, specifically about his former boss Turki al-Faisal,
who ran Saudi intelligence for 23 years then abruptly resigned 10 days before 9/11 without
giving any reason. The rumor was he knew about the attack as did CIA, but Saudis and CIA
decided not to do anything to use it as pretext to start the "war on terror" and bring down
Saddam Hussein. Personally I find that a little far fetched but you never know when it comes
to the CIA.
The murder of d'Enghien had no effect on the French Revolution, other countries reactions to
the revolution and the subsequent revolutionary and Napoleonic wars. In fact, most of the
liberal pro French Revolution historians consider the execution as necessary and moral as the
execution of other anti revolutionaries
Koshoggi's murder won't make a bit of difference either once the blame Trump media blast
blows over. The Turkish police appear to be doing a good job. They've arrested 18 people involved. At least the moralist pundits won't be punditing and pontificating about Kavanaugh for a
few days. Kashiggi's not a reformer. He's hard core Muslim Brotherhood
That the Saudi regime commits murders does not surprise me, but getting caught not just with
murder, but also with torture, indeed an unbelievable stupidity.
Why torture the man ?
But what also baffles me is that the journalist wrote for Washpost, a friend of Israel.
That Netanyahu and the Saudi regime cooperate to attack Iran, it is asserted by many, and it
sems quite probable to me.
A technical question, can indeed a smartwatch do what it is supposed to have done ?
If so, then the torturers and murderers are even more stupid, I let the moral issue
undiscussed, than one can imagine.
Then there is the assertion, in cases like this one never knows what the facts are, that the
journalist's girl friend waited outside.
Did he expect trouble ?
Did he ask her to record the trouble ?
Did not the consulate security see her ?
A final remark, what now is the difference in cruelty between IS and the USA's ally ?
Early in WWII FDR was reported that USA oil would be depleted in thirty years time.
So FDR sent Harold L Ickes to Saudi Arabia,where at the end of 1944 the country was made the
USA's main oil supplier.
FDR entertained the then Saud in early 1945 on the cruiser Quincy, laying in the Bitter Lakes
near the Suez Canal.
This Saud and his entourage had never seen a ship before, in any case had never been on board
such a ship.
In his last speech to Congress, seated, FDR did not follow what had been written for him,
but remarked 'that ten minutes with Saud taught him more about zionism than hundreds of
letters of USA rabbi's.
These words do not seem to be in the official record, but one of the speech writers,
Sherwood, quotes them in his book.
Robert E. Sherwood, 'Roosevelt und Hopkins', 1950, Hamburg (Roosevelt and Hopkins, New York,
1948)
If FDR also said to Congress that he would limit jewish migration to Palestine, do not now
remember, but the intention existed.
A few weeks later FDR died, Sherwood comments on on some curious aspects of FDR's death, such
as that the body was cremated in or near Warm Springs, and that the USA people were never
informed that the coffin going from Warm Springs to Washington just contained an urn with
ashes. At present the USA does not seem to need Saudi oil.
If this causes the asserted cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel ?
@Harris ChandlerNow it has made alliances with Israel and between them the tail wags
the dog
The Saudi Royal family and the governments of Israel have always been in cahoots. They
both despise and fear secular governments that are not under their own control in the Middle
East. Witness the fear and dread of both of them of president Nasser in the 1960′s, for
example.
The US establishment, 'liberal' or not, just fake an outcry to soften the image of 100′s
of 1000′s of yemenis, iraqis, libyan.. war casualties they are wholly or partly
responsible for. Khashoggi's death is no more brutal than that of Gaddafi. What's the big
deal ?
Whether Khashoggi is an islamist or not is very minor.
(Sunni) Islam is basically a caravan of arab tribal or civilizational power and the house of
Saud just rides this vehicle or caravan to siphon off the oil wealth.
The house of Saud, said to be Jewish in origin, have the option to migrate en mass to Israel
or French Riviera, with their swiss/US/caribbean offshore accounts during time of crisis or
after new forms of energy resource displace oil
Equally important, the Saudis and Emiratis are now closely allied to Israel's far right
government. Israel has been a door-opener for the Saudis and Gulf Emirates in Washington's
political circles. The Israel lobby is riding to the Saudi's defense .
The Israelis are defending Old Saudi (pre MBS) -- not the New MBS/Kushner fix Palestine
cabal. The last thing Israel wants is a defined Israeli border recognized by the world. The sycophant Israeli backing Senators in congress (Graham et al) are all backing Israel
by condemning MBS and calling for his head.
@FKA Max Thanks for the excellent Real News Network interview with someone I hadn't heard
about (As'ad AbuKhalil) who has followed the career of Khashoggi for years.
It seems that Khashoggi was lately different things to different people – one voice
in English at the Washington Post following the Israeli line, and another in Arabic and the
Arab media supporting the Palestinians and the Moslem Brotherhood.
Over the long term he was a propagandist for the rule of the Saudi princes, and his
problem seemed to be his too close connection to the wrong ones, while they were overthrown
by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). There's the suggestion of a plot against MbS where
he may have been involved.
So why are the Israelis, their MSM and their AIPAC congressmen making such a big thing out
of it? Isn't MbS their friend? And why should they care about the assassination of a
pro-Palestinian journalist?
Maybe they've a better knowledge of the forces at play in Saudi Arabia, and concluded that
MbS was too much of a risk (too isolated and independent – e.g. talking with the
Chinese about a Petro/Yuan). Maybe they decided to Regime Change MbS in a usual Israeli/US
Deep State operation with Khashoggi at the centre (the duplicitous sort of character that
they favor) – with the outrage at MbS unexpectedly striking back. It was in fact MbS'
team of bodyguards who arrived in Istanbul. And it would account for the Deep State anger at
having one of its chief conspirators murdered.
The back story has to be that the US/Israel want control of both Saudi and Iranian oil
priced in US Dollars and they'll go with anyone who can give that outcome (currently not
MbS). Or they invade Saudi Arabia Eastern Province on some pretext or other and just take the
oil directly.
I'm surprised that the Saudis didn't ask the Israelis, who are very good at
assassination and kidnapping, to go after Khashoggi.
They probably did, but Israel is gearing up to invade Gaza AGAIN, and that takes time and
resources that they couldn't afford to let go and do some free-lancing in the Murder Inc
Department.
But Blessed are the War Mongers or something, as that oh-so devout Christian, Pat
Robertson, is against holding KSA accountable:
Prominent evangelical leader on Khashoggi crisis: let's not risk "$100 billion worth
of arms sales"
Pat Robertson, founder of the Christian Broadcasting Network, appeared on its flagship
television show The 700 Club on Monday to caution Americans against allowing the United
States' relationship with Saudi Arabia to deteriorate over Khashoggi's death.
"For those who are screaming blood for the Saudis -- look, these people are key allies,"
Robertson said. While he called the faith of the Wahabists -- the hardline Islamist sect to
which the Saudi Royal Family belongs -- "obnoxious," he urged viewers to remember that
"we've got an arms deal that everybody wanted a piece of it'll be a lot of jobs, a lot of
money come to our coffers. It's not something you want to blow up willy-nilly."
Did Robertson take all of that loot he made from smuggling blood diamonds out of
Africa–using his charity as a front–and invest in the defense industry?
If Pat is headed to Heaven after he expires, then send me to the other place, as I have
no desire to be stuck with hypocrites for all eternity.
"Error" ? "Mistake" ? These people (the KSA) are fucking "stupid" .
Now they're saying he died in a "fist fight" in the consulate !
A 13 year old street criminal would know that that excuse is an admission of guilt. These
guys shouldn't be allowed to run a model railroad.
On television in 1988, Donald Trump said he had bought a
US $200 million 85-metre-long yacht ,'The Nabila', from billionaire arms dealer Adnan
Khashoggi, uncle of just-murdered-in-Istanbul journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The yacht was named
after Adnan Khashoggi's daughter. Trump later sold the yacht to Saudi Prince Al-Waleed bin
Talal.
Donald Trump talking about the boat and arms dealers like Khashoggi – "not the
nicest guys in the world"
Naftogaz has now begun to help itself to money from Russia's gas-transit payments, arguing
that it is owed money from the Stockholm Arbitration ruling which Gazprom has refused to pay.
Apparently Russia is still paying the old rate, from before the ruling (because to do
otherwise would be to recognize the debt and accept responsibility for it), which results in
an overpayment since it is higher than Naftogaz would charge, if I understand correctly. So
Naftogaz has decided to confiscate it as owing.
This, obviously, sets the stage for another shutdown of European gas supplies, just as
winter is coming on. Perhaps Ukraine has realized that nothing it can do or say is going to
stop Nord Stream II from going ahead, and so it might as well recover what it can, and who
cares if it results in a shutdown of Europe's gas, regardless where the blame ends up? Once
again Ukraine's maneuvering puts Russia in a difficult spot – it can recognize the
Stockholm award and pay Ukraine $2.6 Billion or whatever it was. Or it can accept that
Ukraine will keep part of its transit payments against the debt until it can shut down gas
transit across Ukraine altogether. Or it can shut off the gas now.
If it were up to me, I would take the middle option. Let Ukraine congratulate itself on
one-upping me with its native cleverness (assuming here that I am Russia), and let them keep
$9 or $10 million of the transit fees each month; that would probably be a lot cheaper than
acknowledging the Stockholm award and paying Ukraine billions, in view of the fact that
Ukraine never paid back the money it was lent by Russia; Stockholm neatly solved that for
them, by awarding them huge damages, part of which was understood to be the amount Ukraine
owed. Okay, that goes toward Ukraine's debt to Russia, and now you owe Ukraine $2.6 Billion
more.
I would just focus on getting Nord Stream II completed. Then I would not only stop gas
transit through Ukraine, I would tell them to kiss my ass if they wanted to buy gas for
themselves. You were so pleased with yourselves for not buying any gas from Russia last year
– obviously you can get along fine without it. But I sure hope Europe is going to keep
giving you money to buy European gas forever.
Once
again my best House of Saud-connected source RE-CONFIRMED Mohammed Bone Saw (MBS) received
direct info on CIA assets in Saudi Arabia from his close whatsapp pal Jared of Arabia.
Jared could only have access to this top secret info because of his high clearance. That led
to the Ritz-Carlton jail saga - and other arrests.
The CIA protégé Mohammed bin Nayef - who was previously made Crown Prince by
the CIA itself - was also arrested and is still under house arrest. The CIA was grooming Nayef
be King.
The CIA managed to elevate Nayef by plotting to get rid of Bandar Bush - who was fired by
then King Abdullah. When King Abdullah died, Nayef continued to be Crown Prince until ousted by
the new King Salman bin Abdulaziz to the benefit of his son.
Big mistake.
MBS moved against the clergy - who had been neutralized by Nayef. He moved against CIA
friends, ousting former King Abdullah's son Prince Miteb as head of the powerful National Guard
- who's after his blood ever since.
Crucially, Khashoggi was also CIA.
MBS ordered the invasion of Yemen - and turned large sectors of the army against him. He met
with AIPAC in New York, befriended Israel and turned the bulk of the Saudi population against
him.
Only misinformed simpletons believe that the Pulp Fiction in Istanbul op could have
proceeded without his green light. Hubris, arrogance and inter-galactic ignorance are MBS's
trademarks.
What kind of intel op does not know that Turkish secret police would be monitoring the Saudi
embassy 24/7?
The Coward Prince, meanwhile, has had ample time to find not one but TWO fall guys.
Fall Guy Number One is Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, deputy head of Saudi intel (yes, that's an
oxymoron), a senior air force officer with NO (very important) family connections to the Saudi
two-bit royals.
Fall Guy Number Two is Saud al-Qahtani, who was a sort of Desert Grand Inquisitor - totally
controlling the media and supervising the non-stop purge of any critics. Call him the Saudi
Steve Bannon - as he was known in Qatar. He led a mighty troll army spreading fake news on the
murderous war on Yemen, the pathetic blockade of Qatar and non-stop demonization of Iran.
Turkey for its part has masterfully deployed Death by a Thousand Leaks on MBS.
Now the whole planet knows the detailed description of the 15-men hit squad; pics of all of
them; their role in the "mission"; arrival and departure flights; which hotels they stayed for
a few hours.
The hit squad includes the Bone Saw Master; four intel ops; 6 Royal Guard members; a member
of MBS's personal guard; and a free agent.
Compared to all this evidence, the official "fist fight" Saudi explanation as well as the
Jared of Arabia-spun "rogue killer" spin are inter-galactic jokes designed for suckers.
What remains unexplained is whether MBS was striking some sort of dodgy deal with the Trump
administration, via his best pal Jared, behind the back of his House of Saud many rivals.
Consul Pompeus Minimus was on the phone to MBS immediately after the Pulp Fiction news broke
out. This could well turn out to have been a double-double cross.
Comment: Pepe is probably a little too sure it couldn't have happened without MbS's approval.
He may have been involved and it escalated further than he approved, (as Scott Adams
theorizes ), or
it could've been a rogue operation. Mohammed bin Salman has made enough enemies within the
sprawling Saudi royal family with last year's "anti-corruption purge", that more than one
faction would be happy to pin the assassination on him
"... I agree with Jack that when Brennan is writing an op-ed calling for the head of MbS something fishy is up. Kashoggi has had a long career at the heart of Saudi national security power structures. He's no angel. Clearly he touched a nerve to be murdered so openly with no plausible deniability. Or maybe that was intentional. Then....the reaction of the Deep State. Hmm? ..."
"... Please don't get me wrong. Saudi Barbaria has been a corrupting influence for decades and the role they have played in Syria, Libya is not to be condoned. I fully support walking away from our interventionist position in the Middle East and letting the chips fall there. However, I have a deep distrust of Brennan and his motives. I can't put my finger on why the neocons are reacting in this way in light of their previous attitude of ignoring such atrocities or even abetting them. This is raising suspicions. ..."
"... if that is such a common knowledge that host states always bug the guest embassies and consulates, that would mean that Saudis would have to assume that as well, so that they would make sure that these devices were ´blinded´, ..."
"As for arms sales, someone needs to brief Mr. Trump on the actual results of the promises made to him when he visited Riyadh
last year. As Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution
sums it up , "The Saudis have not concluded a single major arms deal with Washington on Trump's watch ." Moreover, an end to
supplies of U.S. spare parts and technical support, something Russia cannot provide, would quickly ground the Saudi air force . That
would have the welcome effect of ending a bloody bombing campaign in Yemen that a
U.N. investigation concluded was probably responsible for war crimes." Washpost
-----------
Once again, I am not a great fan of Bezos or his blog, but two days in a row they have printed something I can agree with. Something
has changed for him.
It has become a meme in the blather that runs shrill and shallow in the US media, that Saudi Arabia is a faithful, and indispensable
ally of the US in the ME. Bezos disputes this and so do I.
A few points:
Yes, they chop heads off after Friday prayers outside the local mosque. They also do hands and feet. They stone to death women
found guilty of adultery. They sew them in bags before the men present throw handy five pound rocks at them. The government is deeply
approving of this. Sound familiar? Yes, it should. The jihadis whom the Saudis sponsor in Syria do the same things. The Sunni jihadis
are nearly defeated in Syria and it has become clear that the Saudi government has been evacuating their leaders, probably with US
connivance, so that they can pursue greater visions of jihad elsewhere.
The importance of Saudi Arabia in the world oil market is IMO now much exaggerated. They can undoubtedly do some damage by manipulating
the short term contract (spot) market but this is something they would pay for heavily. The Kingdom is cash strapped. It was not
for nothing that MBS turned the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh into a prison for the wealthy including many of his own kin in order to squeeze
and in some cases torture them into handing over a lot of their cash to the government. Depressed petro sales at artificial prices
will only further reduce revenue to the government.
The notion that Saudi intelligence contributes much to the GWOT is a joke. Saudi intelligence competence is something that exists
only in pitchmen's claims voiced by TV touts. In fact, they get almost everything they have from the US and are like greedy baby
birds always looking to be fed. They cannot organize a trip to the gold plated toilet. It took 15 of them to ambush Khashoggi, well,
OK, 14 of them and a doctor to carry the electric bone-saw.
We need to sell them more equipment that they cannot use? It does not appear to me that any of the contracts that they promised
to DJT has been signed. Their technique is simple. Keep the hope of profit for the US alive as leverage.
Lastly, the chimera of a great Arab alliance (a la NATO) is delusory. The Saudis lack both the organizational ability for such
a thing and significant military power. They possess one of the world's largest static displays of military equipment. They have
neither the manpower nor the aptitude to use such equipment effectively. As I have written previously, the Gulf Arabs have long had
such an alliance. It is the GCC and it has never amounted to anything except a venue for the Arab delight in meetings and blather.
The basis for the desire for such an alliance is the Israeli strategic objective of isolating Iran and its allies; Syria, Hizbullah
and Hamas with an eventual hope of destroying the Iranian theocracy. Israel is frightened of a possible salvo of many thousands of
missiles and rockets into Israel from Lebanon as well as an eventual successful creation of a missile deliverable nuclear weapon
by the Iranians. These are real and credible threats for Israel, but not for FUKUS . Israel has only two really valuable counter-value
targets; Haifa and Tel Aviv. A hit on one or both with a nuclear weapon would be the end of Israel. The Israelis know that.
Adroit information operations carried out over generations by the Israeli government and its supporters have created in the collective
US mind an image of Iran as a disguised 3rd Reich. This was well done. The same operation was run against Iraq with magnificent results
from the POV of Israel
What happened here that all the neocons like Fred Hiatt and Sen. Lindsey Graham now want the blood of MBS? Jamal Kashoggi was
apparently a good pal of Osama and an insider who worked for Prince Turki al-Faisal both when he ran Saudi intelligence and when
he was in DC. My antenna is up when John Brennan starts writing op-eds. After all he was in Riyadh when Turki was the internal
security chief.
Does this have to do with our Deep State? Who may not be happy that MBS has by-passed them with a direct connection through
Jared?
We didn't do anything or demand anything when the Saudis sent terrorists to attack us on 9/11. What's changed now with the
murder of Jamal Kashoggi in Istanbul?
I'm with Jack. Don't get me wrong: I hate MBS as much as the next man, but I can't say I trust Erdogan or Bezos either. And these
days, whenever the WaPo tells me to zig, my instinct tells me to zag. At the very least, I would like to know more about what's
really going here before committing myself to one side or the other. Kashoggi, after all, was not just some random 'journalist'.
He had intimate contact with, and knowledge of, high-ranking personages in the KSA and beyond. He even knew Osama bin Laden! There
could be any number of parties out there in this world who have felt that he knew too much. It's just too early to jump to conclusions.
Over at Consortium News, Asad Abu Khalil, the 'Angry Arab', has up a good piece arguing that Kashoggi was no reformer. In fact,
up until extremely recently, he was doggedly loyal to the régime. As he puts it:
"Western media coverage of Khashoggi's career (by people who don't know Arabic) presents a picture far from reality. They portray
a courageous investigative journalist upsetting the Saudi regime. Nothing is further from the truth: there is no journalism in
Saudi Arabia; there is only crude and naked propaganda."
It is very unlikely that the people, who time and time again have been found to lack even a shred of human decency, compassion
and fairness, Brennan et al and I include WaPo in that, are now going gaga over the murder of a journo, who had strong links with
the power players in the region.
The way that these things have worked out in the media earlier, I think the order has come from higher up to push this incident
to damage either the relationship with SA or mbs. I think that keeping this incident hot has also kept the oil price high just
before the mid-term elections. surely, a higher oil price hurts trump. that might be a reason for the trump-hating crowd including
wapo to discover decency and fairness and other human virtues just right now. very intriguing, this reaction from the MSM.
I note that the British press is not pressing this issue as much, nor is Haaretz. Only the US MSM is pressing this very hard.
The US and the Brits before us have slavishly courted the Saudi Royals since before WWII. This is a constant through Republican
and Democratic administrations. The Trump administration is no exception. Why the murder of one journalist would challenge a half
century of established US policy at this time is beyond my understanding. Perhaps it's the proverbial straw that broke the camel's
back.
Someone from whose writings I have derived a great deal of instruction, as well as amusement, is Vladimir Golstein, a Russian
Jewish émigré now in charge of 'Slavic Studies' at Brown University.
I introduce his explanation of the response to the Khashoggi killing, in a 'Facebook' post, not because I think it should be
taken as some kind of authoritative truth, but because, as often, Golstein's irreverence is thought-provoking.
The post begins:
'Thank you, Saudi Arabia for exposing the utter hypocrisy and moral bankruptcy of British and American gangsta press and equally
gangsta establishment.
'You've been at it for a very long time. And it seems that finally you've got it right.'
After providing a long list of Saudi delinquencies, Golstein continues:
'I understand that you began to feel more and more desperate. You sided with Israel against Iran and Syria, and the rest
of the world said that it is a moral thing to do and put you on the UN human rights board.
'Well, finally, you hit the right cord. Killing innocent people and abusing your moneyed power by buying newspapers, hotels,
city districts or think tanks, was not enough to produce an outrage in the west, but when you whacked another cynical morally
corrupt journalist that proved too much for the cynical and morally corrupt western press. They decided to stand up for one
of their own.'
This does, I think, point to something rather important. And it leads to the thought that MBS and others may have miscalculated,
as a result of an 'hubris' which many in the West have actually encouraged – just as they have a parallel 'hubris' in Israel.
As Golstein, who has a great deal of complex history behind him, can see very clearly, it is an interesting question when
the 'sympathy' of Western 'liberals' is and is not actually felt.
What I think MBS may have missed is, quite precisely, the realisation that for people like Tom Friedman the fact that –
as Golstein is pointing out – Khashoggi is the same kind of animal as they are means that killing him touches them personally.
Second, he is the kind of figure whom they have, as it were, 'cast' in a 'starring role', in their 'narrative' as to how
somehow 'Saudi Barbaria' is going to 'modernise', and in so doing create a Middle East hospitable to a Jewish settler state.
So, in assassinating him, MBS may have unleashed a curious kind of psychological 'maelstrom.'
But, as well as hypocrisy, there is also a basic stupidity.
In fact, if one is reasonably 'worldlywise', one knows that people's sympathies, including one's own, are very often much more
limited than they profess to be. We commonly find it much easier to feel the griefs and pain of people whom we see as like ourselves,
than we do with those of others.
My own history, ironically, has been a move from finding it relatively easy to sympathise with people who write for the 'New
York Times', or the 'Guardian', or the 'New York Review of Books', to finding it really rather difficult.
There is also, however, about so many of these people, an element of sheer stupidity.
Whether one agrees, or disagrees, with 'deplorables' is relevant, but only partly so. Actually, people who would not appear
at the kind of 'party' which Jon Schwarz so aptly characterises have a very wide range of views, and I often agree in whole or
in part with such people, and also often disagree in whole or in part. It is not a simple matter.
A related but distinct question has to do with common prudence.
People who lock themselves in a kind of bubble of the supposedly 'enlightened' are not only doing the rest of us no favours,
but are inherently bound to head off in directions which are liable to be suicidal for themselves.
Prudent élites take the trouble at least to be aware that the world is not controllable by the comfortable people who appear
at their dinner parties, and realise that if they persist in trying to persuade themselves that it is, sooner or later their self-delusion
will blow up in their faces.
In relation to people like MBS, there is a double stupidity. The problem is not simply that he has been playing to their need
to believe that he wants to 'modernise' Saudi Arabia. It is also that they have wanted to believe that such a venture is possible,
which it almost certainly is not.
Yes, Vladimir Golstein has a point. The DC cocktail circuit have been offended as one of their fellow travelers has been offed.
If this will lead to a break with Saudi Barbaria that will be good. I'm cynical however. Brennan, et al just want their boy in
Riyadh not Jared's buddy.
Wait until it becomes clear that Israel in actuality negotiates her safety with Russia (it is ongoing as I type this)--that's
when the party will start in earnest.
"The US and the Brits before us have slavishly courted the Saudi Royals since before WWII."
TTG, as you are doubtless aware, it goes back even further, to early World War I. David Fromkin's seminal 1989 history, "A
Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East (also subtitled Creating the
Modern Middle East, 1914–1922)":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wi... describes the machinations by British, French, and (later) Americans to play the competing
desert chieftains against each other, alternately catering to and dumping unceremoniously each one as political necessity dictated.
Recommended to readers wishing to further appreciate the roots of the irresolvable turmoil that is the modern Middle East.
Yes, there's clearly more than meets the eye. I agree with Jack that when Brennan is writing an op-ed calling for the head
of MbS something fishy is up. Kashoggi has had a long career at the heart of Saudi national security power structures. He's no
angel. Clearly he touched a nerve to be murdered so openly with no plausible deniability. Or maybe that was intentional. Then....the
reaction of the Deep State. Hmm?
Please don't get me wrong. Saudi Barbaria has been a corrupting influence for decades and the role they have played in
Syria, Libya is not to be condoned. I fully support walking away from our interventionist position in the Middle East and letting
the chips fall there. However, I have a deep distrust of Brennan and his motives. I can't put my finger on why the neocons are
reacting in this way in light of their previous attitude of ignoring such atrocities or even abetting them. This is raising suspicions.
The evidence I see is that a Saudi citizen who used to be a "regime insider" with high level connections and aligned with the
previous head of Saudi intelligence was brutally murdered by Saudi government officials. Turkey leaked this information and in
the leaks claim they have audio and video evidence of the murder. John Brennan and other neocons who previously have not only
supported but also connived in some of the atrocities committed by the Saudi government are demanding that MbS be held to account.
The question that is nagging me is why are the neocons reacting this way now, considering they have always carried water for
the Saudi royals when real dissidents have been routinely executed after show trials?
for example, how did Turks get the audio and possibly video of the deed, the transmission by Apple watch story may be just a red
herring, they may have independent sources and methods which the US is not privy to the word ´their´ in my remark intended to
say ´Turks´. Sorry about the unclear sentence.
I thought you Germans were supposed to be smart. You don't understand that MIT, the Turkish intelligence service had bugged the
consulate? What part of that do you not understand? Go get some strudel and think about it!
hahaha, I will eat it, BUT - if that is such a common knowledge that host states always bug the guest embassies and consulates,
that would mean that Saudis would have to assume that as well, so that they would make sure that these devices were ´blinded´,
and that would mean that there were other devices which they were not able to ´blind´. Just deep thinking, is that also German
trait?
Sounds like Klarity, a German trait. The Saudis probably lacked the skill to find the Turkish bugs. MIT, the Turkish service are
very skilled at installation.
Maybe this new surprising "moral" attitude has something to do with the mid-terms elections. Yes Saudi Arabia is a kind of traditional
commodity platform and surely not an Ally, but DJT did enhance the Saudis status as Partners in his projected Deal of the Century
(still not published).
The Khasoghi murder has become the DJT problem and while raising his expression for the outrage has also
opened the exit door, and provided a possibility to dilute MBS direct responsibility. Of interest is the Erdogan careful but repeated
supply of details.
What 'terrorists' attacked on 911...?...nobody knows what exactly happened on that day, and who was involved...except that the
official narrative is total BS...
Yes, one could lump me under the dismissive and unflattering epithet of 'truther'...after looking into some of the physical aspects
of the matter, the narrative is impossible on grounds of physics...that is not to say I am speculating on who or even the how...which
is where we see a lot of tinfoil hat stuff...but I have a solid engineering and aviation background...it could not have happened
the way we are told...
The President has authority under the Global Magnitsky Act to impose sanctions against
anyone who has committed a human rights violation. Congress has already requested a HR
investigation which Trump must act on and report to them within 4 months
It appears my prediction of Saudi gate may be right. This potentially is good news for
Iran and Russia. Perhaps not so good for Trump and Saidis. Israel may not be happy. Perhaps
his wife's plane troubles were a warning shot to remind him who is boss. Who knows ?
Haleys resignation beginning to make sense now. The House of Trump and House of Saud may
soon fall, and Bibi wont be happy losing Trump and MBS. We all know what they are capable of
to get things back on track
Why did the media held back on this so for so long?
Yemen (and Gaza).
CGTN & Al-Jazeera are the only global news outlets consistently and regularly reporting on the US facilitated
genocides in Yemen and Jewish-occupied Palestine/Gaza.
The never-ending Khashoggi non-mystery mystery keeps Yemen & Gaza out of the Jew-controlled Western Media
headlines. Saudi Barbaria and "Israel" are natural allies because each of them is an artificial Western political
construct with a cowardly and incompetent military apparatus and an anti-heroic penchant for slaughtering undefended
civilians - for psychopathic reasons.
--------
Talking about psychopathy...
Oz's Christian Zionist PM, Sco Mo, is blathering about following Trump's lead and moving Oz's Embassy in "Israel" to
Jerusalem. Sc Mo, who has never had an original idea in his life, still hasn't woken up to the fact that Trump's
Jerusalem gambit was a trap for Bibi. So it's hilarious that Sco Mo The Unoriginal, is planning to take a flying
leap into the same trap!
Anyone with more than half a brain would realise that...
1. No civilised country has followed Trump's lead.
2. Trump can, and will, reverse his (illegal) Jerusalem decision out of a 'new-found respect' for International Law.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 18, 2018 12:14:08 AM |
83
Whoever is ultimately behind this campaign (which I
suspect is a loose association of interest groups spread throughout SA, Turkey, London citi, wall street, whoever)
they will not stop until MbS is paraded through the streets in chains or at least his head at the end of a lance. At
this point the only question how many days will it take to see his head on a pike?
"Their target that night: Anssaf Ali Mayo, the local leader of the Islamist
political party Al-Islah. The UAE considers Al-Islah to be the Yemeni branch of the worldwide Muslim Brotherhood,
which the UAE calls a terrorist organization. Many experts insist that Al-Islah, one of whose members won the Nobel
Peace Prize, is no terror group. They say it's a legitimate political party that threatens the UAE not through
violence but by speaking out against its ambitions in Yemen."
Getting to the bottom of the Jamal Khashoggi disappearance is a bit like peeling an onion.
It is known that Khashoggi entered the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul on October 2
nd to get a document that would enable him to marry a Turkish woman. It is also
known, from surveillance cameras situated outside the building, that he never came out walking
the same way he entered. The presumption is that he was either killed inside or abducted,
though the abduction theory would have to be based on a Consulate vehicle leaving the building
with him presumably concealed inside, something that has not been confirmed by the Turks. If he
was killed inside the building and dismembered, as seems likely, he could have had his body
parts removed in the suitcases carried by the alleged fifteen official Saudis who had arrived
that morning by private jet and left that afternoon the same way. The supposition is that the
fifteen men, which may have included some members of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman's
bodyguard as well as a physician skilled in autopsies who was carrying a bone saw, constituted
the execution party for Khashoggi.
There are certain things that should be observed about the Turks, since they are the ones
claiming that the disappearance of Khashoggi may have included a summary execution and
dismemberment. The Turkish intelligence service, known by its acronym MIT, is very good, very
active and very focused on monitoring the activities of foreign embassies and their employees
throughout Turkey. They use electronic surveillance and, if the foreign mission has local
employees, many of those individuals will be agents reporting to the Turkish government. In my
own experience when I was in Istanbul, I had microphones concealed in various places in my
residence and both my office and home phones were tapped. A number of local hire consulate
employees were believed to be informants for MIT but they were not allowed anywhere near
sensitive information.
As Turkey and Saudi Arabia might be termed rivals if not something stronger, it is to be
presumed that MIT had the Consulate General building covered with both cameras and microphones,
possibly inside the building as well as outside, and may have had a Turkish employer inside who
observed some of what was going on. Which is to say that the Turks certainly know exactly what
occurred but are playing their cards closely to see what they can derive from that knowledge.
The two countries have already initiated a joint investigation into what took place. Turkey's
economy is in free fall and would benefit from "investment" from the Saudis to create an
incentive to close the book on Khashoggi. In other words, Turkey's perspective on the
disappearance could easily be influenced by Saudi money and the investigation might well turn
up nothing that is definitive.
Saudi Arabia, for its part, has a couple of cards to play also even if it did kill and
dismember Khashoggi under orders from the Crown Prince. First of all, the system of
petrodollars, which basically requires nearly all purchases of petroleum to be paid in dollars,
is underwritten by the Saudis. Petrodollars in turn enable the United States to print money for
which there is no backing knowing that there will always be international demand for dollars to
buy oil. The Saudis, who also use their own petrodollars to buy U.S. treasury bonds, could pull
the plug on that arrangement. That all means that the United States will be looking for an
outcome that will not do too much damage to the Saudis.
Second, Saudi Arabia is in bed with Israel in opposition to Iran. This means the Israel
Lobby and its many friends in Congress will squawk loudly about Khashoggi but ultimately shy
away from doing anything about it. It already appears that a cover story is halfway in place to
explain what happened. It is being suggested that a "rogue" element from Saudi Arabia might
have carried out without the knowledge of the Crown Prince an interrogation or abduction
attempt that went too far. Donald Trump speculated on Monday that that might be the case,
suggesting that it may already be part of the official line that will be promoted. Those who
know Saudi Arabia well, however, consider a high-level assassination not ordered by the Crown
Prince directly to be extremely unlikely, but that does not necessarily mean that a cover story
including that feature might not be successfully floated.
In regional terms, Saudi Arabia is also key to Trump's anticipated Middle East peace plan.
If it pulls out from the expected financial guarantees aspect, the plan will fall apart. Riyadh
is also committed to buy tens of billions of dollars' worth of American arms, an agreement that
could be canceled if Washington begins to pressure the Saudis for answers. Beyond that, Saudi
Arabia could stop pumping oil or fail to increase production when Iranian oil becomes subject
to U.S. sanctions early next month, driving the price per barrel up dramatically for everyone.
The Saudi government has already indicated that it will respond forcefully to any attempts to
punish it over Khashoggi and there is no reason to doubt the seriousness of that threat.
There are, of course, possible impediments to selling the fake news narrative. Some early
reports suggested that Khashoggi's fiancé had observed and possibly recorded the
execution inside the consulate using the victim's Apple wristwatch linked to an iPad in her
possession. If that is true, the release of such material to the media will create worldwide
demand to learn the truth that will be difficult to control. Also, there are unconfirmed
reports that U.S. intelligence knew in advance of Saudi plans to abduct Khashoggi, which could
prove embarrassing to the Trump administration and could narrow its options.
The trick will be to see how a bit of extreme brutal behavior by the Saudis can be
manipulated by all interested parties to produce a solution that doesn't damage anyone too
much. It will undoubtedly be far from the truth, but truth doesn't necessarily matter much
these days.
"... This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 1018 donors have already invested in our efforts to combat corruption and predatory conduct, particularly in the financial realm. Please join us and participate via our donation page , which shows how to give via check, credit card, debit card, or PayPal. Read about why we're doing this fundraiser and what we've accomplished in the last year, and our current goal, extending our reach . ..."
"... By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm. Originally published at OilPrice ..."
"... As long as NATO exists, Washington will continue to use it to drive a wedge between the EU and Russia. Merkel foolishly went along with all of Washington's provocations against Russia in Ukraine, even though none of it benefited Germany's national interest. ..."
"... She did indeed go along with all the provocations and she sat back and said nothing while Putin railed against US sanctions. Yet Putin didn't blame Germany or the EU. Instead he said that the Germany/EU is currently trapped by the US and would come to their senses in time. He is leaving the door open. ..."
"... What US LNG exports? The US is a net importer of NG from Canada. US 2018 NG consumption and production was 635.8 and 631.6 Mtoe respectively (BP 2018 Stats). Even the BP 2018 Statistical Review of World Energy has an asterisks by US LNG exports which says, "Includes re-exports" which was 17.4 BCM or 15 Mtoe for 2018. ..."
"... Natural gas negotiations involve long term contracts so there are lots of money to exchange ensuring business for many years to come. Such a contract has recently been signed between Poland's PGNiG and American Venture Global Calcasieu & Venture Global Plaquemines LNG (Lousiana). According to the Poland representative this gas would be 20% cheaper than Russian gas. (if one has to believe it). Those contracts are very secretive in their terms. This contract in particular is still dependent on the termination of liquefaction facilities in Lousiana. ..."
"... IIRC, the US is pushing LNG because fracking has resulted in a lot of NG coincident with oil production. They've got so much NG coming out of fracked oil wells that they don't know what to do with it and at present, a lot of it just gets flared, or leaks into the atmosphere. ..."
"... So they turn to bullying the EU to ignore the price advantage that Russia is able to offer, due to the economics of pipeline transport over liquefaction and ocean transport, and of course the issues of reliability and safety associated with ocean transport, and high-pressure LNG port facilities compared to pipelines. ..."
"... Trump will probably offer the EU 'free' LNG port facilities financed by low-income American tax-payers, and cuts to 'entitlements', all designed to MAGA. ..."
"... It seems we have been maneuvering for a while to raise our production of LNG and oil (unsustainably) in order to become an important substitute supplier to the EU countries. It sort of looks like our plan is to reduce EU opposition to our attacking Russia. Then we will have China basically surrounded. This is made easier with our nuclear policy of "we can use nuclear weapons with acceptable losses." What could go wrong? ..."
"... The United States should lead by example. Telling Germany not to import Russian gas is rich considering the U.S. also imports from Russia. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/07/12/russia-was-a-top-10-supplier-of-u-s-oil-imports-in-2017/ ..."
"... I just love the fact that Trump is publicly calling out Merkel on this; she has been nothing but two-faced and hypocritical on the Russia question. ..."
"... She was one of the ones who pushed the EU hard, for example, to sanction Russia in the wake of the coup in Ukraine (which she had also supported). And then she pushed the EU hard to kill off the South Stream pipeline, which would have gone through SE Europe into Austria. She used the excuse of 'EU solidarity' against 'Russian aggression' to accomplish that only to then turn around and start building yet another pipeline out of Russia and straight into Germany! The Bulgarians et al. must feel like real idiots now. It seems Berlin wants to control virtually all the pipelines into Europe. ..."
This
is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 1018 donors have already invested in our efforts to
combat corruption and predatory conduct, particularly in the financial realm. Please join us
and participate via our donation page , which shows how to give via
check, credit card, debit card, or PayPal. Read about why we're doing
this fundraiser and what we've
accomplished in the last year, and our current goal, extending
our reach .
Yves here. It's not hard to see that this tiff isn't just about Russia. The US wants Germany
to buy high-priced US LNG.
By Tsvetana Paraskova, a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm.
Originally published at
OilPrice
The United States and the European Union (EU) are at odds over more than just the Iran
nuclear deal – tensions surrounding energy policy have also become a flashpoint for the
two global powerhouses.
In energy policy, the U.S. has been opposing the Gazprom-led and highly controversial
Nord Stream 2 pipeline project , which will follow the existing Nord Stream natural gas
pipeline between Russia and Germany via the Baltic Sea. EU institutions and some EU members
such as Poland and Lithuania are also against it, but one of the leaders of the EU and the
end-point of the planned project -- Germany -- supports Nord Stream 2 and sees the project as a
private commercial venture that will help it to meet rising natural gas demand.
While the U.S. has been hinting this year that it could sanction the project and the
companies involved in it -- which include not only Gazprom but also major European firms Shell,
Engie, OMV, Uniper, and Wintershall -- Germany has just said that
Washington shouldn't interfere with Europe's energy choices and policies.
"I don't want European energy policy to be defined in Washington," Germany's Foreign
Ministry State Secretary Andreas Michaelis said at a conference on trans-Atlantic ties in
Berlin this week.
Germany has to consult with its European partners regarding the project, Michaelis said, and
noted, as quoted by Reuters, that he was "certainly not willing to accept that Washington is
deciding at the end of the day that we should not rely on Russian gas and that we should not
complete this pipeline project."
"Germany is totally controlled by Russia, because they will be getting from 60 to 70 percent
of their energy from Russia and a new pipeline," President Trump said.
Germany continues to see Nord Stream 2 as a commercial venture, although it wants clarity on
the future role of Ukraine as a transit route, German government spokeswoman Ulrike Demmer
said last month.
Nord Stream 2 is designed to bypass Ukraine, and Ukraine fears it will lose transit fees and
leverage over Russia as the transit route for its gas to western Europe.
Poland, one of the most outspoken opponents of Nord Stream 2, together with the United
States, issued a joint statement last month during the visit of Polish President Andrzej Duda
to Washington, in which the parties
said , "We will continue to coordinate our efforts to counter energy projects that threaten
our mutual security, such as Nord Stream 2."
The president of the Federation of German Industry (BDI), Dieter Kempf, however, told
German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung last month, that he had "a big problem with a third
country interfering in our energy policy," referring to the United States. German industry
needs Nord Stream 2, and dropping the project to buy U.S. LNG instead wouldn't make any
economic sense, he said. U.S. LNG currently is not competitive on the German market and would
simply cost too much, according to Kempf.
The lower price of Russian pipeline gas to Europe is a key selling point -- and one that
Gazprom uses often. Earlier this month Alexey Miller, Chairman of Gazprom's Management
Committee, said at a gas forum in
Russia that "Although much talk is going on about new plans for LNG deliveries, there is no
doubt that pipeline gas supplies from Russia will always be more competitive than LNG
deliveries from any other part of the world. It goes without saying."
The issue with Nord Stream 2 -- which is already
being built in German waters -- is that it's not just a commercial project. Many in Europe
and everyone in the United States see it as a Russian political tool and a means to further
tighten Russia's grip on European gas supplies, of which it already holds more than a third.
But Germany wants to discuss the future of this project within the European Union, without
interference from the United States.
Maybe the US thinks it will also have to go out of its way to accommodate Germany and the
EU by offering to construct the necessary infrastructure in Europe for the import of LNG at
exorbitant US prices. MAGA. How long would that take?
The question is, is it inevitable that the EU/US relationship goes sour?
Continentalism is on the rise generally, and specifically with brexit, couple this with the
geographical gravity of the EU-Russia relationship makes a EU-Russia "alliance" make more
sense than the EU-US relationship.
Ever since the death of the USSR and the accession of the eastern states to the EU, the
balance of power in the EU-US relationship has moved in ways it seems clear that the US is
uncomfortable with.
To all of this we must add the policy differences between the US and the EU – see the
GDPR and the privacy shield for example.
I have said it before – the day Putin dies (metaphorically or literally) is a day
when the post war order in Europe may die, and we see the repairing of the EU-Russia
relationship (by which I mean the current regime in Russia will be replaced with a new
generation far less steeped in cold war dogma and way more interested in the EU).
"The post war order in Europe will doe and we see the repairing of the EU/Russian
relationship "
I think you mean the German/Russian relationship and that repair has been under way for
more than a decade. The post war order is very very frayed already and looks close to a break
point.
This Nord Stream 2 story illustrates more than most Germany's attitudes to the EU and to
the world at large. Germany used its heft within the EU to 1 ) get control of Russian gas
supplies into Central Europe (Germany insisted that Poland could not invest in the project
apparently and refused a landing point for the pipeline in Poland. Instead it offered a flow
back valve from Germany into Poland that the Germans would control) 2) thumb its nose at the
US while outwardly declaring friendship through the structures provided by EU and NATO
membership.
Even Obama suspected the Germans of duplicity (the Merkel phone hacking debacle).
It's is this repairing relationship that will set the tone for Brexit, the Ukraine war,
relations between Turkey and EU and eventually the survival of the EU and NATO. The point ?
Germany doesn't give a hoot about the EU it served its purpose of keeping Germany anchored to
the west and allowing German reunification to solidify while Russia was weak. Its usefulness
is in the past now, however from a German point of view.
Putin dying isn't going to change Washington. As long as NATO exists, Washington will
continue to use it to drive a wedge between the EU and Russia. Merkel foolishly went along
with all of Washington's provocations against Russia in Ukraine, even though none of it
benefited Germany's national interest.
Come to think of it, maybe Merkel dying off would improve German-Russian relations
She did indeed go along with all the provocations and she sat back and said nothing while
Putin railed against US sanctions. Yet Putin didn't blame Germany or the EU. Instead he said
that the Germany/EU is currently trapped by the US and would come to their senses in time. He
is leaving the door open.
Germany won't lose if NATO and the EU break up. It would free itself from a range
increasingly dis-functional entities that, in its mind, restrict its ability to engage in
world affairs.
I think you are right. Russia and Germany are coming together and there's nothing we can
do about it because "private commercial venture." Poetic justice.
And the economic link will
lead to political links and we will have to learn a little modesty. The ploy we are trying to
use, selling Germany US LNG could not have been anything more than a stopgap supply line
until NG from the ME came online but that has been our achilles heel.
It feels like even if
we managed to kick the Saudis out and took over their oil and gas we still could no longer
control geopolitics. The cat is out of the bag and neoliberalism has established the rules.
And it's pointless because there is enough gas and oil and methane on this planet to kill the
human race off but good.
That exactly right. and Gerhard Schroder has been developing those political relationships
for more than a decade. The political/economic links already go very deep on both sides.
if the rapprochement is occurring, Brexit, the refugee crisis and Italy's approaching debt
crisis are all just potential catalysts for an inevitable breakup. Germany likely views these
as potential opportunities to direct European realignment rather than existential crises to
be tackled.
What US LNG exports? The US is a net importer of NG from Canada. US 2018 NG consumption
and production was 635.8 and 631.6 Mtoe respectively (BP 2018 Stats). Even the BP 2018
Statistical Review of World Energy has an asterisks by US LNG exports which says, "Includes
re-exports" which was 17.4 BCM or 15 Mtoe for 2018.
The US produces annually about 33,000,000 million cubic feet and consumes 27.000.000
million according to the EiA . So there is an
excess to export indeed.
Natural gas negotiations involve long term contracts so there are lots of money to
exchange ensuring business for many years to come.
Such a contract has recently been signed between Poland's PGNiG and American Venture
Global Calcasieu & Venture Global Plaquemines LNG (Lousiana). According to the Poland
representative this gas would be 20% cheaper than Russian gas. (if one has to believe it).
Those contracts are very secretive in their terms. This contract in particular is still
dependent on the termination of liquefaction facilities in Lousiana.
I don't know much about NG markets in Poland but according to Eurostat prices for
non-household consumers are very similar in Poland, Germany, Lithuania or Spain.
Gas contracts are usually linked to oil prices. A lot of LNG is traded as a fungible
product like oil, but that contract seems different – most likely its constructed this
way because of the huge capital cost of the LNG facilities, which make very little economic
sense for a country like Poland which has pipelines criss-crossing it. I suspect the
terminals have more capacity that the contract quantity – the surplus would be traded
at market prices, which would no doubt be where the profit margin is for the supplier (I
would be deeply sceptical that unsubsidised LNG could ever compete with Russia gas, the
capital costs involved are just too high).
IIRC, the US is pushing LNG because fracking has resulted in a lot of NG coincident with
oil production. They've got so much NG coming out of fracked oil wells that they don't know what to do
with it and at present, a lot of it just gets flared, or leaks into the atmosphere.
IMO, the folks responsible for this waste are as usual, ignoring the 'externalities', the
costs to the environment of course, but also the cost of infrastructure and transport related
to turning this situation to their advantage.
So they turn to bullying the EU to ignore the price advantage that Russia is able to
offer, due to the economics of pipeline transport over liquefaction and ocean transport, and
of course the issues of reliability and safety associated with ocean transport, and
high-pressure LNG port facilities compared to pipelines.
This doesn't even take into account the possibility that the whole fracked gas supply may
be a short-lived phenomenon, associated with what we've been describing here as basically a
finance game.
Trump will probably offer the EU 'free' LNG port facilities financed by low-income
American tax-payers, and cuts to 'entitlements', all designed to MAGA.
Just to clarify, fracked gas is not usually a by-product of oil fracking – the
geological beds are usually distinct (shale gas tends to occur at much deeper levels than
tight oil). Gas can however be a byproduct of conventional oil production. 'wet' gas
(propane, etc), can be a by-product of either.
It's common for oil wells both fracked and conventional to produce natural gas (NG) though
not all do. The fracked wells in the Permian Basin are producing a great deal of it.
Natural gas does indeed form at higher temperatures than oil does and that means at
greater depth but both oil and NG migrate upward. Exploration for petroleum is hunting for
where it gets captured at depth, not for where it's formed. Those source rocks are used as
indicators of where to look for petroleum trapped stratigraphically higher up.
It seems we have been maneuvering for a while to raise our production of LNG and oil
(unsustainably) in order to become an important substitute supplier to the EU countries. It
sort of looks like our plan is to reduce EU opposition to our attacking Russia. Then we will
have China basically surrounded. This is made easier with our nuclear policy of "we can use
nuclear weapons with acceptable losses." What could go wrong?
I wonder what the secret industry studies say about the damage possible from an accident
at a LNG port terminal involving catastrophic failure and combustion of the entire cargo of a
transport while unloading high-pressure LNG.
They call a fuel-air bomb the size of a school bus 'The Mother of all bombs', what about
one the size of a large ocean going tanker?
Many years ago, someone was trying to build an LNG storage facility on the southwest shore
of Staten Island 17 miles SW of Manhattan involving very large insulated tanks. In spite of
great secrecy, there came to be much local opposition. At the time it was said that the
amount of energy contained in the tanks would be comparable to a nuclear weapon. Various
possible disaster scenarios were proposed, for example a tank could be compromised by
accident (plane crashes into it) or terrorism, contents catch fire and explode, huge fireball
emerges and drifts with the wind, possibly over New Jersey's chemical farms or even towards
Manhattan. The local opponents miraculously won. As far as I know, the disused tanks are
still there.
A 28-inch LNG underground pipeline exploded in Nigeria and the resulting fire engulfed
an estimated 27 square kilometers.
Here's one from Cleveland;
On 20 October 1944, a liquefied natural gas storage tank in Cleveland, Ohio, split and
leaked its contents, which spread, caught fire, and exploded. A half hour later, another
tank exploded as well. The explosions destroyed 1 square mile (2.6 km2), killed 130, and
left 600 homeless.
The locals in Nigeria drill hole in pipeline to get free fuel.
The Nigeria Government has been really wonderful about sharing the largess and riches of
their large petroleum field in the Niger delta. Mostly with owners of expensive property
around the world.
I am trying to think of what might be in it for the Germans to go along with this deal but
cannot see any. The gas would be far more expensive that the Russian deliveries. A fleet of
tankers and the port facilities would have to be built and who is going to pick up the tab
for that? Then if the terminal is in Louisiana, what happens to deliveries whenever there is
a hurricane?
I cannot see anything in it for the Germans at all. Trump's gratitude? That and 50 cents
won't buy you a cup of coffee. In any case Trump would gloat about the stupidity of the
Germans taking him up on the deal, not feel gratitude. The US wants Germany to stick with
deliveries via the Ukraine as they have their thumb on that sorry country and can threaten
Germany with that fact. Nord Stream 2 (and the eventual Nord Stream 3) threaten that
hold.
The killer argument is this. In terms of business and remembering what international
agreements Trump has broken the past two years, who is more reliable as a business partner
for Germany – Putin's Russia or Trump's America?
I find it impossible to believe that a gas supplier would keep to an artificially low LNG
contract if, say, a very cold winter in the US led to a shortage and extreme price spike.
They'd come up with some excuse not to deliver.
My recollection was that there was a law that prohibited export-sales of domestic US
hydrocarbons. That law was under attack, and went away in the last couple years?
LNG with your F35? said the transactional Orangeman
The fracked crude is ultralight and unsuitable for the refineries in the quantities
available, hence export, which caused congress to change the law. No expert, but understand
that it is used a lot as a blender with heavier stocks of crude, quite a bit going to
China.
The petroleum industry has been bribing lobbying the administration for quite a
while to get this policy in place, The so called surplus of NG today (if there is), won't
last long. Exports will create a shortage and will result in higher prices to all.
also, if Germany were to switch to American LNG, for how long would this be a reliable
energy source? Fracking wells are short lived, so what happens once they are depleted? who
foots the bill?
I just love the fact that Trump is publicly calling out Merkel on this; she has been
nothing but two-faced and hypocritical on the Russia question.
She was one of the ones who pushed the EU hard, for example, to sanction Russia in the
wake of the coup in Ukraine (which she had also supported). And then she pushed the EU hard
to kill off the South Stream pipeline, which would have gone through SE Europe into Austria.
She used the excuse of 'EU solidarity' against 'Russian aggression' to accomplish that only
to then turn around and start building yet another pipeline out of Russia and straight
into Germany! The Bulgarians et al. must feel like real idiots now. It seems Berlin wants to
control virtually all the pipelines into Europe.
So, three cheers for Trump embarrassing Merkel on this issue!
Putting money aside for a moment, Trump, as well as the entire American establishment,
doesn't want Russia "controlling" Germany's energy supplies. That's because they want America
to control Germany's energy supplies via controlling LNG deliveries from America to Germany
and by controlling gas supplies to Germany through Ukraine. This by maintaining America's
control over Ukraine's totally dependent puppet government. The Germans know this so they
want Nord Stream 2 & 3.
Ukraine is an unreliable energy corridor on a good day. It is run by clans of rapacious
oligarchs who don't give one whit about Ukraine, the Ukrainian "people", or much of anything
else except business. The 2019 presidential election may turn into a contest among President
Poroshenko the Chocolate King, Yulia Tymoshenko the Gas Princess, as well as some others
including neo Nazis that go downhill from there. What competent German government would want
Germany's energy supplies to be dependent on that mess?
It has been said that America's worst geopolitical nightmare is an
economic-political-military combination of Russia, Iran, and China in the Eurasian
"heartland". Right up there, if not worse, is a close political-economic association between
Germany and Russia; now especially so since such a relationship can quickly be hooked into
China's New Silk Road, which America will do anything to subvert including tariffs,
sanctions, confiscations of assets, promotion of political-ethnic-religious grievances where
they may exist along the "Belt-Road", as well as armed insurrections, really maybe anything
short of all out war with Russia and China.
Germany's trying to be polite about this saying, sure, how about a little bit of LNG along
with Nord Stream 2 & 3? But the time may come, if America pushes enough, that Germany
will have to make an existential choice between subservience to America, and pursuit of it's
own legitimate self interest.
It's hard to make NG explode, as it is with all liquid hydrocarbons. It is refrigerated,
and must change from liquid to gaseous for, and be mixed with air.
I've also worked on a Gas Tanker in the summer vacations. The gas was refrigerated, and
kept liquid. They is a second method, used for NG, that is to allow evaporation from the
cargo, and use it as fuel for the engine (singular because there is one propulsion engine on
most large ships) on the tanker.
The macabre case of missing journalist Jamal Khashoggi raises the question: did Saudi rulers
fear him revealing highly damaging information on their secret dealings? In particular,
possible involvement in the 9/11 terror attacks on New York in 2001.
Even more intriguing are US media
reports now emerging that American intelligence had snooped on and were aware of Saudi
officials making plans to capture Khashoggi prior to his apparent disappearance at the Saudi
consulate in Istanbul last week. If the Americans knew the journalist's life was in danger, why
didn't they tip him off to avoid his doom?
Jamal Khashoggi (59) had gone rogue, from the Saudi elite's point of view. Formerly a senior
editor in Saudi state media and an advisor to the royal court, he was imminently connected and
versed in House of Saud affairs. As one commentator cryptically put it: "He knew where all the
bodies were buried."
For the past year, Khashoggi went into self-imposed exile, taking up residence in the US,
where he began writing opinion columns for the Washington Post.
Khashoggi's articles appeared to be taking on increasingly critical tone against the heir to
the Saudi throne, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The 33-year-old Crown Prince, or MbS as
he's known, is de facto ruler of the oil-rich kingdom, in place of his aging father, King
Salman.
While Western media and several leaders, such as Presidents Trump and Macron, have been
indulging MbS as "a reformer", Khashoggi was spoiling this Saudi public relations effort by
criticizing the war in Yemen, the blockade on Qatar and the crackdown on Saudi critics back
home.
However, what may have caused the Saudi royals more concern was what Khashoggi knew about
darker, dirtier matters. And not just the Saudis, but American deep state actors as as
well.
He was formerly a
media aide to Prince Turki al Faisal, who is an eminence gris figure in Saudi intelligence,
with its systematic relations to American and British counterparts. Prince Turki's father,
Faisal, was formerly the king of Saudi Arabia until his assassination in 1975 by a family
rival. Faisal was a half-brother of the present king, Salman, and therefore Prince Turki is a
cousin of the Crown Prince – albeit at 73 more than twice his age.
For nearly 23 years, from 1977 to 2001, Prince Turki was the director of the Mukhabarat, the
Saudi state intelligence apparatus. He was instrumental in Saudi, American and British
organization of the mujahideen fighters in Afghanistan to combat Soviet forces. Those militants
in Afghanistan later evolved into the al Qaeda terror network, which has served as a cat's paw
in various US proxy wars across the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, including
Russia's backyard in the Caucasus.
Ten days before the 9/11 terror attacks on New York City, in which some 3,000 Americans
died, Prince Turki retired from his post as
head of Saudi intelligence. It was an abrupt departure, well before his tenure was due to
expire.
There has previously been speculation in US
media that this senior Saudi figure knew in advance that something major was going down on
9/11. At least 15 of the 19 Arabs who allegedly hijacked three commercial airplanes that day
were Saudi nationals.
Prince Turki has subsequently been named in a 2002 lawsuit mounted by families of 9/11
victims. There is little suggestion he was wittingly involved in organizing the terror plot.
Later public comments indicated that Prince Turki was horrified by the atrocity. But the
question is: did he know of the impending incident, and did he alert US intelligence, which
then did not take appropriate action to prevent it?
Jamal Khashoggi had long served as a trusted media advisor to Prince Turki, before the
latter resigned from public office in 2007. Following 9/11, Turki was the Saudi ambassador to
both the US and Britain.
A tentative idea here is that Khashoggi, in his close dealings with Prince Turki over the
years, may have gleaned highly sensitive inside information on what actually happened on 9/11.
Were the Arab hijackers mere patsies used by the American CIA to facilitate an event which has
since been used by American military planners to launch a global "war on terror" as a cover for
illegal wars overseas? There is a huge body of evidence that the 9/11 attacks were indeed a
"false flag" event orchestrated by the US deep state as a pretext for its imperialist
rampages.
The apparent abduction and murder last week of Jamal Khashoggi seems such an astoundingly
desperate move by the Saudi rulers. More evidence is emerging from Turkish
sources that the journalist was indeed lured to the consulate in Istanbul where he was
killed by a 15-member hit squad. Reports are saying that the alleged assassination was ordered
at the highest level of the Saudi royal court, which implicates Crown Prince MbS.
Why would the Saudi rulers order such a heinous act, which would inevitably lead to acute
political problems, as we are seeing in the fallout from governments and media coverage around
the world?
Over the past year, the House of Saud had been appealing to Khashoggi to return to Riyadh
and resume his services as a media advisor to the royal court. He declined, fearing that
something more sinister was afoot. When Khashoggi turned up in Istanbul to collect a divorce
document from the Saudi consulate on September 28, it appears that the House of Saud decided to
nab him. He was told to return to the consulate on October 2. On that same day, the 15-member
group arrived from Riyadh on two private Gulfstream jets for the mission to kill him.
Official Saudi claims stretch credulity. They say Khashoggi left the consulate building
unharmed by a backdoor, although they won't provide CCTV images to prove that. The Turks say
their own CCTV facilities monitoring the front and back of the Saudi consulate show that
Khashoggi did not leave the premises. The Turks seem confident of their claim he was murdered
inside the building, his remains dismembered and removed in diplomatic vehicles. The two
private jets left the same day from Istanbul with the 15 Saudis onboard to return to Riyadh,
via Cairo and Dubai.
To carry out such a reckless act, the Saudis must have been alarmed by Khashoggi's critical
commentaries appearing in the Washington Post. The columns appeared to be delivering more and
more damaging insights into the regime under Crown Prince MbS.
The Washington Post this week is
reporting that US intelligence sources knew from telecom intercepts that the Saudis were
planning to abduct Khashoggi. That implicates the House of Saud in a dastardly premeditated act
of murder.
But furthermore this same disclosure could also, unwittingly, implicate US intelligence. If
the latter knew of a malicious intent towards Khashoggi, why didn't US agents warn him about
going to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul? Surely, he could have obtained the same personal
documents from the Saudi embassy in Washington DC, a country where he was residing and would
have been safer.
Jamal Khashoggi may have known too many dark secrets about US and Saudi intel collusion,
primarily related to the 9/11 terror incidents. And with his increasing volubility as a
critical journalist in a prominent American news outlet, it may have been time to silence him.
The Saudis as hitmen, the American CIA as facilitators.
"... He is just an agent of one Saudii faction against the MBS faction, a faction just as evil. ..."
"... After Lebanese prime minister, Saad Hariri, was kidnapped and taken to Riyadh to be re-educated (tortured) Khashoggi left Saudi Arabia . Khashoggi continued with his columns criticizing the Saudi regime, attacking its campaign in Yemen on Al Jazeera. ..."
According to an article in the Duran Khashoggi was an agent in the employ of Riyadh and
the CIA during the Soviet presence in Afghanistan.
Turki bin Faisal Al-Saud was Khashoggi's political protector. Turki bin Faisal Al-Saud was
at the center of relations between Washington and Saudi Arabia against the USSR while it was
in Afghanistan using fighters who later became known as Al Qaeda - armed and trained by
CIA:Pakistan and financed by the Saudis.
Faisal became the leader of Saudi intelligence. He was removed from his post on May 24,
2001, a few months before September 11, 2001 (convenient) .The connections he had with Osama
bin Laden led him to being sued by relatives of 9/11 directed at him and other Saudi
operatives.
In 2005, Turki bin Faisal was appointed Saudi ambassador to the US during the Bush
administration, with Khashoggi accompanying him as a media advisor. During Turki bin Faisal's
ambassadorship in Washington, Khashoggi assumed the position of head of press relations,
coming into direct contact with major national and international organs of US media.
During the Obama administration, Khashoggi supported the Obama administrations strategy of
color revolutions and the Arab Spring to extend US imperialist domination following the
disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan. He was most likely a CIA asset, perhaps also Saudi
intelligence as well
When MBS became the strongman holding power in Saudi Arabia, he triggered a near war with
Qatar with Trumps blessing, and was unhappy over the role of Al Jazeera, which often hosted
Khashoggi and was increasingly critical of MBS.
So whatever the story is I am not losing any sleep over Khashoggi. He is just an agent
of one Saudii faction against the MBS faction, a faction just as evil. Kind of like the
pick between agents of the 2 factions duking it out in the US. Evil does vs Evil do. There
are no white knights here.
After Lebanese prime minister, Saad Hariri, was kidnapped and taken to Riyadh to be
re-educated (tortured) Khashoggi left Saudi Arabia . Khashoggi continued with his columns
criticizing the Saudi regime, attacking its campaign in Yemen on Al Jazeera.
What hypocrisy on display by the US. Unfuckingbelievable. Such concern for a journalist, such
outrage!
There is currently a case working its way through the court system (here in the US)
brought by two journalists, one of them an American, where they are pleading to have their
names removed from the US "kill list". They say their inclusion on the list is erroneous, and
ask that they be given a chance to show that they are not, in fact, terrorists before a drone
blows them into pieces. They are represented by Reprieve lawyers, and they joined their two
suits together as co-plainiffs, although it now appears that the foreign-born journalist was
basically told by the judge he was shit out of luck, having "no standing", since he didn't
sufficiently prove that he was on the list. (He had found his name listed as a "highest
scoring target" on some of Edward Snowden's leaked NSA materials, but that was not enough
"proof" for the judge.)
The American journalist is Bilal Kareem, and the other is a journalist from Pakistan named
Ahmad Zaidan. BTW, both these men were originally targeted under the Obama administration,
but their names remain on the list under Trump. And Trump has increased the use of these
targeted drone killings by 4 to 5 times the number of Obama's, who himself had increased the
assassination program 10 fold over Bush' numbers. Trump has also loosened the "rules" about
where these drone killings can take place, and who can be targeted. US drone warfare has
taken the lives of some 10,858 individuals since 2004, according to the Bureau of
Investigative Journalism (TBIJ).
The Washington Post and the Middle East Monitor both have good stories about the case, but
the best article by far is Matt Taibbi's article in Rolling Stone published on 19 July.
According to
NYT , Khashoggi "had expressed concern to a friend on Monday that he could be
kidnapped and returned to Saudi Arabia if he visited the consulate". He went in at
1:30pm , while his friend and fiancée were waiting outside till 9:00pm .
Isn't it a bit odd that his friend and fiancée, while fully aware the danger of him
being kidnapped insider the consulate, waited for 7:30 hours before alerting Turkish
authorities? Normally it takes 2 or 3 hours get a document, esp. already processed ones.
Why didn't his friend and fiancée alert the Turkish police earlier? Esp. "he
left his cellphone outside with Hatice, who had instructions to alert his friends if Mr.
Khashoggi did not return".
Mr. Khashoggi's wife had remained in Saudi Arabia while he was no longer able to return
freely. Their separation had led to a divorce, and he wanted to remarry to a Turkish woman.
Normally, you don't divorce your wife/husband because of one-year's separation. According
to this NYT article, Khashogg divided his time between the Washington, D.C., London and
Istanbul, how long did he come to know his fiancée? Isn't it a bit too
rush/risky for a 59-year old man suddenly decided to divorce long-year wife and marry a new
Turkish girl friend? Could it be a honey trap?
" Odd dates ?"
- Oct. 2, Khashoggi disappeared.
- Oct. 3, Trump told his supporters that Saudi could last two weeks without American
support.
- Oct. 6, MbS said Suadi could survive 2000 years without US help .
- Now full-blown MSM storm, State Deparment is closely monitor the whole affair, Turkish
government is feeding the media with all sorts of lurid details and claims. (Isn't it much
easier and simpler just to kidnap/shot him on the streets of Istanbul or London than
dismembering his body inside Istanbul consulate?)
Now Saudi is "willing to cooperate" with Turkey, American priest Brauson is set free, plus
MbS now has probably to purchase tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions of US
armaments. What a "coincident" win-win situation for Erdy and Trump.
As another poster commented, something is missing...
It is like a well choreograhped drame, Skripals were the same, this also is tooooo nice
fitting together... Hmfr!
Qui bono? Who makes money on this? I certainly cannot answer that, but lets play safe : The
Russians did it!
They beamed up Kasshoggi to their base on the dark side of the moon, the re killed him in
civilized manner, fucking him to death with nice looking whores and spoonfeeding him Beluga
caviar and interjected wit sips of Russian Starka. He was then made to mush and beamed back
into the Saudi consulate making a real mess. Now poor headchop promoter is all over the
place! He must love that up in his muslum heaven with 72 old hags. There is no martyrdom in
being beamed to the moon and put through a garden shredder, that is nothing special.
So now the Saudi's has Khassoggi al over their faces (literally :)) and the Turks eye a new
way to betray someone (Putin, wake up!!). Ever since democracy was bestowed on these people,
they have made a mess of it.
Back in the day (when I was gung ho Army boy), it was OK for a Turk officer to shoot dead a
couple of conscripts a year, no problemo, the sentries with weapons had no live rounds hi-hi.
Turkey does not need a hard shove and it will crumble, and the Americans will intervene,
unless Russia is first.
This game is about Turkey, and not goat herders in Saudi Sodoma. They have hardly oil left
and the plebs are angry.
Ukraine Naftogaz Commercial Director Yuriy Vitrenko, in an interview with "The Fifth
Channel" has spoken of a plan that has been prepared in order to protect Naftogaz interests
in the event of the launch of "Nord Stream-2".
According to him, if the gas pipeline project is indeed implemented, then Kiev will demand
that a penalty against against Russia be awarded the Ukraine for the loss it will suffer
because of the redundancy of its gas transport system.
The loss incured has been estimated by the Ukraine to be $12 billion. A lawsuit has
already been filed by Naftogaz for international arbitration.
So for several years I have been shopping at a Pyatyorochka supermarket around the corner
from our house. Now there's a new Billa supermarket around the other corner. It has a wider
range of goods and is very competitive as regards its Pyatorocka prices, so I now do most of
my shopping at Billa.
Does this mean Pyatyorachka can sue me for damages because of the loss of income it is
suffering because of my choice to use another retail outlet?
I shall check with the Swedish court of arbitration.
Perhaps they would get further by suing the US Department of State. I'm pretty sure that if
it were not for them, Ukraine's gas transit system would still be in use. Ukraine could at
least make a sensible case, which they cannot do against Russia. Mind you, a UK judge would
probably rule in their favour, because simply wanting to get at Russia seems to be good
enough these days – making a sensible case is not required.
In another stellar example of simply making up an optimistic headline that makes readers feel
good – those readers who only read headlines, for example – a French analyst is
apparently willing to go out on a limb and say that Nord Stream II 'won't be built as
planned'. That's already a little hedgy, but if you read the article itself, he doesn't say
anything remotely like that. In fact, he says Russian gas is the cheapest option, and most
American LNG cargoes thus far to Europe are promptly sold on to someplace else where the
Europeans can get more for it.
The major issue is that US LNG may come if we have higher prices. But why would we need
them? They are quite high already. If China is prepared to overbid us, we don't need the
American gas. We can ask for more Russian gas
Russia's Energy Minister sees the potential to double Russian gas exports by 2035. Russia's
gas exports are growing by 6-7%/yr while global gas demand growth is at 2.6%/yr until 2035.
Probably not the greatest news for the environment, as most analysts agree we need to
start immediately moving away from a petroleum-based energy policy. But getting rid of all
use of coal would be a good start for the present; gas is relatively clean, although I don't
know if that makes any real difference to greenhouse-gas emissions.
Ryan Chilcote : Let's return to energy, or at least more directly to energy,
President Putin, and talk about Nord Stream 2. That's the pipeline that Gazprom wants to build
between Russia and Germany. Again, the President of the United States has said his opinion
about this. He says that Germany is effectively a hostage already of Russia, because it depends
on Russia for so much of its energy and gas supplies, and that it's vulnerable to "extortion
and intimidation" from Russia. What do you make of that?
Vladimir Putin : My response is very simple. Donald and I talked about this very
briefly in Helsinki. In any sale, including the sale of our gas to Europe, we are traditionally
the supplier, of pipeline gas I mean. We have been doing this since the 1960s. We are known for
doing it in a highly responsible and professional manner, and at competitive prices for the
European market. In general, if you look at the characteristics of the entire gas market, the
price depends on the quantity and on sales volumes. The distance between Russia and Europe is
such that pipeline gas is optimal. And the price will always be competitive, always. This is
something all experts understand.
We have a lot of people here in this room, in the first row, who could easily be seated next
to me, and I would gladly listen to them, because each one is an expert, so each of them can
tell you that. And so Nord Stream 2 is a purely commercial project, I want to emphasise this,
warranted by rising energy consumption, including in Europe, and falling domestic production in
European countries. They have to get it from somewhere.
Russian gas accounts for around 34 percent of the European market. Is this a lot or a
little? It is not insubstantial, but not a monopoly either. Europe certainly can and does
actually buy gas from other suppliers, but American liquefied gas is about 30 percent more
expensive than our pipeline gas on the European market. If you were buying products of the same
quality and you were offered the same product for 30 percent more , what would you choose? So,
what are we talking about?
If Europe starts buying American gas for 30 percent more than ours, the entire economy of
Germany, in this case, would quickly become dramatically less competitive. Everyone understands
this; it is an obvious fact.
But business is business, and we are ready to work with all partners. As you know, our
German partners have already begun offshore construction. We are ready to begin as well. We
have no problems with obtaining any permits. Finland agreed, and so did Sweden, Germany, and
the Russian Federation. This is quite enough for us. The project will be implemented.
< >
Ryan Chilcote : President Putin, did you want to jump in here?
Vladimir Putin:(following up on the remarks by CEO of Royal Dutch Shell Ben van
Beurden) We understand the realities and treat all our partners with respect. We have very
good, amiable long-term relations with all our partners, including the company represented by
my neighbour on the left. This company is working in the Russian market and working with great
success, but we understand everything very well and understand the realities. We are carrying
out the project ourselves. We do not and will not have any problems here. That is to say, they
may arise, of course, but we will resolve them.
Some things are beyond the realm of political intrigue. Take supplies to the Federal
Republic of Germany. Not everyone knows that the decision was made there to shut down the
nuclear power industry. But that is 34 percent of its total energy balance. We are proud of the
development of the nuclear power industry in the Russian Federation, although the figure for us
is just 16 percent. We are still thinking about how to raise it to 25 percent and are making
plans. Theirs is 34 percent and everything will be closed down. What will this vacuum be filled
with? What?
Look at LNG [liquefied natural gas ] which is sold by our various competitors and partners.
Yes, LNG can and should be in the common basket of Europe and Germany. Do you know how many
ports built in Europe are used for LNG transfer? Just 25 percent. Why? Because it is
unprofitable.
There are companies and regions for which it is profitable to supply LNG and this is being
done. The LNG market is growing very fast. But as for Europe, it is not very profitable, or
unprofitable altogether.
Therefore, in one way or another we have already seen Nord Stream 1 through and its
performance is excellent. Incidentally, our gas supplies to Europe are continuously growing.
Last year, I believe, they amounted to 194 billion cubic metres and this year they will add up
to 200 billion cubic metres or maybe even more.
We have loaded practically all our infrastructure facilities: Blue Stream to Turkey, Nord
Stream 1 is fully loaded. Yamal-Europe is fully loaded – it is almost approaching 100
percent, while the demand is going up. Life itself dictates that we carry out such
projects.
Ryan Chilcote : President Trump's position on American LNG exports is perhaps a
little bit more nuanced. His point is that instead of buying Russian gas, even perhaps if it's
a bit more expensive, the Germans and other European allies of the United States, because the
United States is paying for their defence, should be buying American gas even if there is, I
guess the argument suggests, a little bit of a higher price for that
Vladimir Putin : You know, this argument doesn't really work, in my opinion. I
understand Donald. He is fighting for the interests of his country and his business. He is
doing the right thing and I would do the same in his place.
As for LNG, as I have already said, it is not just a little more expensive in the European
market but 30 percent more. This is not a little bit more, it is a lot more, beyond all reason,
and is basically unworkable.
But there are markets where LNG will be adopted, where it is efficient, for instance in the
Asia-Pacific region. By the way, where did the first shipment of LNG from our new company
Yamal-LNG go? Where did the first tanker go? To the United States, because it was profitable.
The United States fought this project but ended up buying the first tanker. It was profitable
to buy it in this market, at this place and time, and it was purchased.
LNG is still being shipped to the American continent. It's profitable.
It makes no sense to fight against what life brings. We simply need to look for common
approaches in order to create favourable market conditions, including, for example, conditions
conducive to the production and consumption of LNG in the United States itself and securing the
best prices for producers and consumers. This could be achieved by coordinating policy, rather
than just imposing decisions on partners.
As for the argument, "We defend you, so buy this from us even if it makes you worse off", I
don't think it is very convincing either. Where does it lead? It has led to the Europeans
starting to talk about the need to have a more independent defence capability, as well as the
need to create a defence alliance of their own that allegedly will not undermine NATO while
allowing the Europeans to pursue a real defence policy. This is what, in my view, such steps
are leading to.
This is why I am sure that a great many things will be revised. Life will see to that.
Ryan Chilcote: President Putin, let's get back to geopolitics. When you were talking
about oil – and when everyone talks about oil and disruptions on the market, they don't
just talk about Iran, they talk about Venezuela – you mentioned Venezuela at the
beginning of our conversation. Last year, I interviewed President Maduro, the President of
Venezuela, here. Venezuela is an ally of Russia. Russia has a lot of oil interests in
Venezuela. Oil production in Venezuela is not going well, and politically, things are going
very poorly, as you know. Millions of people are leaving the country. There's hunger. There is
a lot of talk in the United States, and not only in the United States, in Central and South
America, that perhaps it's time for President Maduro to go. Do you agree with that?
Vladimir Putin: This is up to the people of Venezuela, not anyone else in the
world.
As for various means of influencing the situation in Venezuela, there should be no such
thing All of us influence each other in one way or another, but it should not be done in a way
that makes the civilian population even worse off. This is a matter of principle.
Should we rejoice that life is extremely difficult for people there and want to make things
even worse with a view to overthrowing President Maduro? He was recently targeted in a
terrorist attack, an assassination attempt. Shall we condone such methods of political
resistance too?
I think this is absolutely unacceptable. This and anything like it. The people of the
country should be given a chance to shape their destiny themselves. Nothing should be imposed
from the outside.
This is what has emerged historically in Venezuela. What has emerged historically in the
Persian Gulf has emerged there, and the same in Europe, America and Southeast Asia. Nobody
should go in there like a bull in a china shop without understanding what is taking place
there, instead thinking only that the bull is one of the largest and smartest animals. It is
necessary to take a look and give people a chance to figure it out. I have a very simple
outlook on this.
Indeed, we have now met with the Secretary General and spoke
about our cooperation in detail. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that probably for the first time
in history all participants in the agreements honoured their commitments in full. I believe Russia made a commitment
to reduce production by 30,000 barrels, and we did this, just like all other participants in this agreement.
The market is now balanced. The current growth of oil prices
is by and large not a result of our efforts but triggered by attendant circumstances, expectations of decisions
on Iran – incidentally these decisions are absolutely illegal and harmful to the world economy. The fall in oil
production in North Africa is also linked with political circumstances – a civil war and so on. The reduction
in Venezuela is also taking place for domestic political reasons and in connection with the restrictions it has
introduced. This is what it is all about.
As you said, President Trump considers this price high.
I think he is right to some extent but this suits us very well – $65–$70–$75 per barrel. This is quite enough to ensure
the effective performance of energy companies and the investment process. But let us be straight – such prices have
largely been produced by the activities of the US administration. I am referring to expectations of sanctions against
Iran and political problems in Venezuela. Look what is happening in Libya – the state is destroyed. This is the result
of irresponsible policy that is directly affecting the world economy. Therefore, we must work closer with each other,
not only in the energy industry but also in the political area so as to prevent such setbacks.
As for increasing production – we have already increased it
by 400,000 barrels as we agreed with our partners. We can raise it by another 200,000–300,000 barrels per day if need
be.
Ryan Chilcote
: President Putin, is it right
for the President of the United States to be so actively trying to manage the price of oil? We're coming up on elections
in the United States, he's concerned about the price of gas. A gallon of gas in the United States costs almost $3.
Traditionally, voters punish the party in power when prices rise ahead of elections. Is he doing the right thing,
or actually should he step out of the oil market and let the market dictate what happens?
Vladimir Putin
: I have already said this and want to repeat
it again: we had a very good meeting with the President of the United States in Helsinki. But if we had talked about
the issue we are discussing now, I would have told him: Donald, if you want to find out who is guilty for the increase
in prices, you should look in the mirror. That's the truth.
We have just spoken about the geopolitical factors behind
the price hikes. They exist and really play a role in the market. It is better not to interfere in these market
processes, not to try and get some competitive advantage by using political instruments and not to try to regulate
prices as the Soviet Union did. This does not end well. After all, when talking about our negotiated actions with OPEC
we do not use non-market instruments. We are merely matching supply and demand in the market, no more than that.
Everything else today has to do with geopolitical factors that influence prices.
As for gas prices, they are calculated on the basis of oil
prices. Oil prices are produced by the market whereas gas prices are linked to oil prices. Gas prices fluctuate
depending on oil prices with a small time lag of five to six months. That is all.
What is happening in the United States? The United States is
one of the world's biggest producers of both oil and gas. We know everything about new technology that is being
countered by environmentalists. I agree with them, this production is often carried out using barbarous methods we do
not use.
Who is trying to exert pressure on the administration? I do
not know. Let us talk about the energy industry. Please do not involve me in domestic political processes and squabbles
in the United States. It is for you to figure out or else we will be accused again of meddling in the domestic political
life of the US.
Ryan Chilcote:
When I spoke about the price
of gasoline in the United States, a gallon of gasoline, I meant the price of petrol, of "benzin," not "gaz."
Vladimir Putin
: As you understand, this is the price
of the end product and this applies to oil products. This price is not simply formed from the primary price of oil
or gas if we are talking about gas fuel. State policy also exerts an influence on the final price for consumers.
And what about taxes? Why do some European countries double
prices on our gas before it reaches the final consumers? This is all state policy.
So it would be best not to point your finger at energy
producers all the time. You should figure out what economic policy is being pursued in a country and what is being done
to make sure the product reaches the customers at affordable prices. That is all.
Ryan Chilcote
: President Putin, let me ask you about this
EU initiative. What do you make of it?
Vladimir Putin
:
(commenting on the EU initiative
to protect European companies in connection with US sanctions against Iran)
It is a bit delayed but better late than
never. It is delayed because quite recently the President of France speaking, I believe, in New York directly announced
the need to enhance the economic sovereignty of the European Union and reduce its dependence on the United States. This
is certainly right.
And how can it be otherwise if, as I have already said,
someone is trying to gain competitive advantages in business by using political instruments? I think nobody will like
this but this is happening and we are seeing this today.
This is why Europe is thinking about some new opportunities
in connection with these circumstances, for instance about dollar-free settlements that incidentally will undermine
the dollar. In this context – I have said this many times but would like to repeat it again – I believe that our
American partners are committing a huge strategic mistake and undermining confidence in the dollar as today's only
reserve currency. They are undermining confidence in it as a universal instrument and are really biting the hand that
feeds.
This is strange, even surprising, but I think this is
a typical mistake made by any empire when people believe nothing will happen, that everything is so powerful, so strong
and stable that there will be no negative consequences. But no, they will come sooner or later. This is the first point.
And the second point, Europe wants to fulfil its
international commitments – this is how we understand our European partners – in this case, as regards Iran's nuclear
deal, and sees in it, as we do, an element of stability in global affairs, in global politics, which, in one way
or another, is reflected in the global economy, as we have already noted.
< >
Ryan Chilcote:
President Putin, I'd like to go back
to Iran for a second. One of the things that the United States would like to see Iran do is to obviously withdraw from
Syria. The US national security advisor just last week said that the United States is going to now stay in Syria as long
as Iran and its proxies are there. Russia has been very clear. Russia says that the US military's presence in Iran is
illegal. What can you do about the US being in Syria?
Vladimir Putin
: There are two options available
to remedy the situation.
The first is that the United States must obtain the mandate
of the UN Security Council to have its armed forces on the territory of another country, in this case Syria, or receive
an invitation from the legitimate Syrian government to deploy its troops there for whatever reason. International law
does not allow the presence of any country on the territory of another country for other reasons.
Ryan Chilcote:
What can Russia do to change the US'
position? The US says it's going to stay, that Iran has to leave, and the US will stay until Iran pulls out of Syria. So
what can Russia do?
Vladimir Putin
: As we are all well aware, in this
particular case the United States (just read the UN Charter to see that my point is correct, and this is not news
to anyone) is violating the UN Charter and international law by its presence on the territory of another country without
the authorisation of the UN Security Council, without a corresponding resolution and without the invitation
of the government of that country. There is nothing good about it.
We have been operating on the premise that we nonetheless
cooperate with our US partners in fighting terrorism and ISIS in Syria. But as ISIS gradually ceases to exist in Syria,
there is just no other rationale, even outside the framework of international law.
What, in my opinion, can be done and what should we all
strive to achieve? We must strive to ensure that there are no foreign troops from other countries in Syria at all. This
is what we need to achieve.
Ryan Chilcote
: Including Russian forces, of course.
Vladimir Putin
: Yes, including Russian, if the Syrian
government so decides.
Ryan Chilcote
: You just struck a deal with President
Erdogan on Syria. Do you think that that's going to hold?
Vladimir Putin
: How is that related to oil?
Russian
Energy Week International Forum.
Ryan Chilcote
: It's in a very sensitive geopolitical
area.
Vladimir Putin
: Maybe it is related, since Syria also
produces energy resources and influences the market situation one way or another.
In this sense, yes, we need a stable Syria, no question about
it. I am not even talking about other aspects related to international security and fighting terrorism.
This is a very good deal (between Russia and Turkey in this
particular case), because it prevented more bloodshed. As you may recall, it includes our agreement to create
a demilitarised zone 15–20 kilometres deep, a de-escalation zone near the city of Idlib, known as the Idlib zone.
I would like to note that along with our Turkish partners we are now working to implement these agreements. We can see
it and are grateful to them for their efforts, and we will continue to work with them on this matter with the support
of Iran.
Ryan Chilcote
: Let's return to energy, or at least
more directly to energy, President Putin, and talk about Nord Stream 2. That's the pipeline that Gazprom wants to build
between Russia and Germany. Again, the President of the United States has said his opinion about this. He says that
Germany is effectively a hostage already of Russia, because it depends on Russia for so much of its energy and gas
supplies, and that it's vulnerable to "extortion and intimidation" from Russia. What do you make of that?
Vladimir Putin
: My response is very simple. Donald
and I talked about this very briefly in Helsinki. In any sale, including the sale of our gas to Europe, we are
traditionally the supplier, of pipeline gas I mean. We have been doing this since the 1960s. We are known for doing it
in a highly responsible and professional manner, and at competitive prices for the European market. In general, if you
look at the characteristics of the entire gas market, the price depends on the quantity and on sales volumes.
The distance between Russia and Europe is such that pipeline gas is optimal. And the price will always be competitive,
always. This is something all experts understand.
We have a lot of people here in this room, in the first row,
who could easily be seated next to me, and I would gladly listen to them, because each one is an expert, so each of them
can tell you that. And so Nord Stream 2 is a purely commercial project, I want to emphasise this, warranted by rising
energy consumption, including in Europe, and falling domestic production in European countries. They have to get it from
somewhere.
Russian gas accounts for around 34 percent of the European
market. Is this a lot or a little? It is not insubstantial, but not a monopoly either. Europe certainly can and does
actually buy gas from other suppliers, but American liquefied gas is about 30 percent more expensive than our pipeline
gas on the European market. If you were buying products of the same quality and you were offered the same product for 30
percent more , what would you choose? So, what are we talking about?
If Europe starts buying American gas for 30 percent more than
ours, the entire economy of Germany, in this case, would quickly become dramatically less competitive. Everyone
understands this; it is an obvious fact.
But business is business, and we are ready to work with all
partners. As you know, our German partners have already begun offshore construction. We are ready to begin as well. We
have no problems with obtaining any permits. Finland agreed, and so did Sweden, Germany, and the Russian Federation.
This is quite enough for us. The project will be implemented.
< >
Ryan Chilcote
: President Putin, did you want to jump
in here?
Vladimir Putin:
(following up on the remarks by CEO
of Royal Dutch Shell Ben van Beurden)
We understand the realities and treat all our partners with respect. We have
very good, amiable long-term relations with all our partners, including the company represented by my neighbour
on the left. This company is working in the Russian market and working with great success, but we understand everything
very well and understand the realities. We are carrying out the project ourselves. We do not and will not have any
problems here. That is to say, they may arise, of course, but we will resolve them.
Some things are beyond the realm of political intrigue. Take
supplies to the Federal Republic of Germany. Not everyone knows that the decision was made there to shut down
the nuclear power industry. But that is 34 percent of its total energy balance. We are proud of the development
of the nuclear power industry in the Russian Federation, although the figure for us is just 16 percent. We are still
thinking about how to raise it to 25 percent and are making plans. Theirs is 34 percent and everything will be closed
down. What will this vacuum be filled with? What?
Look at LNG [liquefied natural gas ] which is sold by our
various competitors and partners. Yes, LNG can and should be in the common basket of Europe and Germany. Do you know how
many ports built in Europe are used for LNG transfer? Just 25 percent. Why? Because it is unprofitable.
There are companies and regions for which it is profitable
to supply LNG and this is being done. The LNG market is growing very fast. But as for Europe, it is not very profitable,
or unprofitable altogether.
Therefore, in one way or another we have already seen Nord
Stream 1 through and its performance is excellent. Incidentally, our gas supplies to Europe are continuously growing.
Last year, I believe, they amounted to 194 billion cubic metres and this year they will add up to 200 billion cubic
metres or maybe even more.
We have loaded practically all our infrastructure facilities:
Blue Stream to Turkey, Nord Stream 1 is fully loaded. Yamal-Europe is fully loaded – it is almost approaching 100
percent, while the demand is going up. Life itself dictates that we carry out such projects.
Ryan Chilcote
: President Trump's position on American
LNG exports is perhaps a little bit more nuanced. His point is that instead of buying Russian gas, even perhaps if it's
a bit more expensive, the Germans and other European allies of the United States, because the United States is paying
for their defence, should be buying American gas even if there is, I guess the argument suggests, a little bit
of a higher price for that
Vladimir Putin
: You know, this argument doesn't really
work, in my opinion. I understand Donald. He is fighting for the interests of his country and his business. He is doing
the right thing and I would do the same in his place.
As for LNG, as I have already said, it is not just a little
more expensive in the European market but 30 percent more. This is not a little bit more, it is a lot more, beyond all
reason, and is basically unworkable.
But there are markets where LNG will be adopted, where it is
efficient, for instance in the Asia-Pacific region. By the way, where did the first shipment of LNG from our new company
Yamal-LNG go? Where did the first tanker go? To the United States, because it was profitable. The United States fought
this project but ended up buying the first tanker. It was profitable to buy it in this market, at this place and time,
and it was purchased.
LNG is still being shipped to the American continent. It's
profitable.
It makes no sense to fight against what life brings. We
simply need to look for common approaches in order to create favourable market conditions, including, for example,
conditions conducive to the production and consumption of LNG in the United States itself and securing the best prices
for producers and consumers. This could be achieved by coordinating policy, rather than just imposing decisions
on partners.
As for the argument, "We defend you, so buy this from us even
if it makes you worse off", I don't think it is very convincing either. Where does it lead? It has led to the Europeans
starting to talk about the need to have a more independent defence capability, as well as the need to create a defence
alliance of their own that allegedly will not undermine NATO while allowing the Europeans to pursue a real defence
policy. This is what, in my view, such steps are leading to.
This is why I am sure that a great many things will be
revised. Life will see to that.
< >
Ryan Chilcote:
President Putin, let's get back
to geopolitics. When you were talking about oil – and when everyone talks about oil and disruptions on the market, they
don't just talk about Iran, they talk about Venezuela – you mentioned Venezuela at the beginning of our conversation.
Last year, I interviewed President Maduro, the President of Venezuela, here. Venezuela is an ally of Russia. Russia has
a lot of oil interests in Venezuela. Oil production in Venezuela is not going well, and politically, things are going
very poorly, as you know. Millions of people are leaving the country. There's hunger. There is a lot of talk
in the United States, and not only in the United States, in Central and South America, that perhaps it's time
for President Maduro to go. Do you agree with that?
Vladimir Putin:
This is up to the people of Venezuela,
not anyone else in the world.
As for various means of influencing the situation
in Venezuela, there should be no such thing All of us influence each other in one way or another, but it should not be
done in a way that makes the civilian population even worse off. This is a matter of principle.
Should we rejoice that life is extremely difficult for people
there and want to make things even worse with a view to overthrowing President Maduro? He was recently targeted
in a terrorist attack, an assassination attempt. Shall we condone such methods of political resistance too?
I think this is absolutely unacceptable. This and anything
like it. The people of the country should be given a chance to shape their destiny themselves. Nothing should be imposed
from the outside.
This is what has emerged historically in Venezuela. What has
emerged historically in the Persian Gulf has emerged there, and the same in Europe, America and Southeast Asia. Nobody
should go in there like a bull in a china shop without understanding what is taking place there, instead thinking only
that the bull is one of the largest and smartest animals. It is necessary to take a look and give people a chance
to figure it out. I have a very simple outlook on this.
I would like to return to the previous question. After all,
we are dealing with energy. I would like to confirm what my colleagues said here about Russia's energy resources
and potential. They are indeed enormous. Truly enormous. We are in first place in gas reserves. I believe we have 73.3
trillion cubic metres of gas. The Yamal peninsula was mentioned here but NOVATEK will carry out one more project, Arctic
2, on a neighbouring peninsula. It is about the same size and with the same investment. The first tranche in this
project is $27 billion, and the second tranche is about $25 billion. I believe all this will be carried out.
We have the world's largest coal reserves – 275 billion
tonnes. We are third in oil reserves. Third in the world in oil reserves. We are the world's largest country
by territory. If we take a deeper look we are bound to find many other things. So, we are indeed lucky.
But we were given this not by the Lord alone. Past
generations of ours developed these lands. We should never forget what was done by our predecessors, and we will
continue to build on it. We will work with our partners. Incidentally, almost all major energy companies work in Russia.
Ryan Chilcote:
When we were talking about the EU
initiative to try and allow trade between EU countries and Iran, I couldn't help but remember that Russia itself, faced
with sanctions, is thinking about a plan to wean itself off of the dollar. This is something that many countries have
tried and failed. Why does Russia think that it can succeed in this?
Vladimir Putin
: You used the past tense or is
the translation inaccurate? Faced. Have the sanctions been lifted? Did I miss something?
Ryan Chilcote:
Russia is facing with sanctions.
Vladimir Putin:
Okay then. You know, sometimes I think
that it would be good for us if those who want to impose sanctions would go ahead and impose all the sanctions they can
think of as soon as possible. (
Applause.
) This would free our hands to defend our national interests however we
deem most effective for us.
It is very harmful, in general. It hurts the ones doing it.
We all figured this out long ago. That is why we have never supported and will never support illegal sanctions that
circumvent the United Nations.
Ryan Chilcote:
Since you brought up the subject
of sanctions, as you know after the Skripal poisoning, Russia is facing even more of them, perhaps as soon as November.
What is Russia prepared to do to change the trajectory of relations with the United States and the West?
Vladimir Putin
: We are not the ones introducing
these sanctions against the United States or the West. We are just responding to their actions, and we do this in very
restrained, careful steps so as not to cause harm, primarily to ourselves. And we will continue to do so.
As regards the Skripals and all that, this latest spy
scandal is being artificially inflated. I have seen some media outlets and your colleagues push the idea that Skripal is
almost a human rights activist. But he is just a spy, a traitor to the motherland. There is such a term, a 'traitor
to the motherland,' and that's what he is.
Imagine you are a citizen of a country, and suddenly
somebody comes along who betrays your country. How would you, or anybody present here, a representative of any country,
feel about such a person? He is scum, that's all. But a whole information campaign has been deployed around it.
I think it will come to an end, I hope it will,
and the sooner the better. We have repeatedly told our colleagues to show us the documents. We will see what can be done
and conduct an investigation.
We probably have an agreement with the UK on assistance
in criminal cases that outlines the procedure. Well, submit the documents to the Prosecutor General's Office
as required. We will see what actually happened there.
The fuss between security services did not start yesterday.
As you know, espionage, just like prostitution, is one of the most 'important' jobs in the world. So what? Nobody shut
it down and nobody can shut it down yet.
Ryan Chilcote
: Espionage aside, I think there are
two other issues. One is the use of chemical weapons, and let's not forget that in addition to the Skripal family being
affected in that attack, there was also a homeless person who was killed when they came in contact with the nerve agent
Novichok.
Vladimir Putin:
Listen, since we are talking about
poisoning Skripal, are you saying that we also poisoned a homeless person there? Sometimes I look at what is happening
around this case and it amazes me. Some guys came to England and started poisoning homeless people. Such nonsense. What
is this all about? Are they working for cleaning services? Nobody wanted to poison This Skripal is a traitor,
as I said. He was caught and punished. He spent a total of five years in prison. We released him. That's it. He left. He
continued to cooperate with and consult some security services. So what? What are we talking about right now? Oil, gas
or espionage? What is your question?
Let's move on to the other oldest profession and discuss
the latest developments in that business.
(Laughter.)
Ryan Chilcote
: A lot of what we've discussed today
goes back to Russia's relationship with the United States, and so I'll ask you just a couple of questions about that
and we can move on. The US says you personally ordered the 2016 interference in the elections – I know you deny that.
You have said you wanted Trump elected. What do you want to see in 2018 from these midterm election
Vladimir Putin:
In Russia or the United States? What
are you asking me about?
Ryan Chilcote
: What would you like to see happen
in the 2018 midterm elections in the United States.
Vladimir Putin:
What I want – and I am completely
serious – is that this nightmare about Russia's alleged interference with some election campaign in the United States
ends. I want the United States, the American elite, the US elite to calm down and clear up their own mess and restore
a certain balance of common sense and national interests, just like in the oil market. I want the domestic political
squabbles in the United States to stop ruining Russia-US relations and adversely affecting the situation in the world.
Ryan Chilcote:
I'll ask this final question
on the political front. In Helsinki, you said that you wanted President Trump to win because he favours better relations
with Russia. But in fact, as Russia itself says all of the time, relations between Russia and the United States seem
to get worse every day. Wouldn't it be better for Russia to have a president in the United States that is not
politically compromised by the widely held perception that this country helped him get into the White House?
Vladimir Putin
: Firstly, I do not believe President
Trump was compromised. The people elected him, the people voted for him. There are those who do not like this; those who
do not want to respect the opinion of the American voters. But this is not our business – this is an internal matter
of the United States.
Would we be better off or worse? I cannot say either. As is
known, there are no ifs in politics. Maybe it would have been even worse, how are we to know? We must derive from what
is
, and work with that. Good or bad, there is no other President of the United States; there is no other United
States either.
We will work. The US is the largest world power, a leader
in many spheres, our natural partner in a variety of projects, including global security, the non-proliferation
of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, climate change, as well as the environment. We have a lot of common problems
which overlap that we have to work on together.
We presume that sooner or later the moment will come when
we will be able to restore full-fledged relations.
< >
Ryan Chilcote
: President Putin, I know you need
to get a meeting with the Austrian Chancellor, so I'm going to wrap this session up with you, sir. The title of our
conversation today is Sustainable Energy for a Changing World. You've been driving Russian energy policy for nearly 20
years now. What changes in the world, or what change in the world, would you identify as the biggest concern for you,
and what gives you the most optimism when it comes to what we're seeing.
Vladimir Putin:
If you allow me, I would stick
to the subject. The questions that you asked concern me as well.
Indeed, we are apparently witnessing global warming, but
the reasons for this are not entirely clear, because there is still no answer. The so-called anthropogenic emissions are
most likely not the main cause of this warming. It could be caused by global changes, cosmic changes, some changes
in the galaxy that are invisible to us – and that's that, we don't even understand what is actually happening. Probably,
anthropogenic emissions influence the situation somehow, but many experts believe they have an insignificant effect.
This is my first point.
Secondly, I already said this, and I can remind you once
again. Everyone blames the United States now. As you see, we have many problems and unresolved matters with the United
States, and the US President and I approach many international affairs differently and evaluate our bilateral relations
differently. But we still have to be objective. There was a time I saw President Bush refuse to sign the Kyoto
agreements. But we still found a solution. I think the same will happen in this case. Well, Trump believes that
the Paris Agreement is unprofitable for his country for a variety of reasons. I will not go into details now, he must
have talked about this many times, and we know his position.
But I think, we should not antagonise the relationship with
the US, because without them it would be impossible to reduce the influence of anthropogenic air pollution on the global
climate even a little bit. Therefore, one way or another we need to involve the US in this discussion and this joint
work. As I understand, President Trump does not object. He says that he dislikes some provisions of the Paris agreement,
but he is not opposed to working with the global community on this matter.
Now, as regards the pollution and the future of the global
energy, in order to fight the heat, we need no less energy resources than to fight the cold. Secondly, my colleagues
were right, millions of people do not have access to energy resources, and we will never prohibit the use
of the contemporary blessings of civilization, it is just unreal. The economy and the industry will keep developing.
Of course, in Russia we also join the best international
practices, so-called energy efficient technology that has a little bit of influence on the environment, and we,
of course, will continue this.
But I also agree with our Saudi colleague. These
alternative sources are very important, but we will not be able to go without hydrocarbons in the next decades. People
will have to use them for many decades to come. We mostly speak about oil, but coal is what is used most.
We are speaking about the need to use electric cars, but
where will the electricity come from? From the socket? Okay, from the socket, but how did it get there? First we need
to burn coal to produce electricity, while gas remains the most environmentally friendly energy resource. So we need
to take a comprehensive approach to all such matters.
Ryan Chilcote
: Patrick Pouyané posed a challenge
to you. He said it would be good if Russia used less coal. Are you prepared to accept that challenge and reduce
consumption of coal here in Russia and production?
Vladimir Putin:
We have signed the relevant Paris
agreements and taken up our responsibilities. We have implemented the first stage of the Kyoto Protocol, and now
the Paris Agreement will replace it. We have taken up all necessary responsibilities and will adhere to them.
The question is not about reducing the usage of coal for domestic needs, we are not the largest emitter, the US
and Asian countries emit much more. Here, we are not the leaders. We sell a lot of coal, but also not more than anyone
else and we only help cover the demand. The question is not about us, but about modern technology that uses primary
energy resources.
Let us go back to the last question, could you please
repeat it?
Ryan Chilcote
: Well, the title of the panel is
Sustainable Energy for a Changing World. You've been driving Russia's energy policy for nearly 20 years now. What
changes, or what is the change that gives you the most hope and what do you think the biggest challenge that you see
amongst the changes is for energy?
Vladimir Putin
: Concern is caused by uncertainty.
In politics, in security, and in the economy. Volatility, in other words. This is it. And the number of uncertainties is
growing. This is what causes concern – the unpredictability of the situation.
Ryan Chilcote
: Are you talking about your colleague,
the President of the United States?
Vladimir Putin
: Not exactly. He certainly makes
a significant contribution to this unpredictability by virtue of being the President of the largest world power, but not
only him. I am talking about the situation in general.
Look at the rise of extremism – where did it come from? Why
is this problem so acute today? Why is this extremism turning into terrorism? Doesn't that concern us? This is what we
need to understand – where it all came from.
I will not go into details because we have a limited amount
of time. But this is happening in many spheres. In the economy – the same thing. This growing uncertainty in all fields
is what causes concern.
Now, what causes optimism? Common sense, I think. No matter
how hard it is, people, humankind have always found ways out of the most difficult situations, guided by the interests
of their countries, their peoples, and it is the goal of any government to ensure the well-being as well as the growth
of the welfare of its people.
I think that sooner or later, and the sooner the better,
the realisation will come that we need to get away from controversy as soon as possible, in any case, away from trying
to resolve this controversy with unacceptable tools and ways that go beyond international law. It seems to me that it is
necessary to strengthen the leading role of the United Nations, and on this foundation, move on.
Ryan Chilcote
: And on that note, please join me
in thanking and congratulating our participants in today's panel and, of course, our host today the President of Russia.
Thanks for your answer, which is what I'd presumed. The bottom line seems to be that
nothing's unhackable--no matter what, it will get hacked.
What follows is OT, but attempts to supply a reason for the propaganda pimple burst. A few
days ago the annual Russian Energy Week conference occurred where Putin gave a speech and
answered numerous questions related to energy and geopolitics. A few of the choice quotes
related to his answers were published, but the transcript portion recording the Q&A had
yet to be published in full at the Kremlin's website. The transcript's now complete regarding
those Q&As directed at and answered by Putin, and what he has to say on a wide spectrum
of issues is highly educational: No one can say they know how Putin feels about a particular
issue without having read his answers. A few days ago, I tried linking to the Kremlin's
website only to have the post eaten by TypePad's Cloud. Here's the link . Reading his answers
and comments might lead Russophobic members of Trump's Swamp to burst a propaganda pimple in
revenge for his honesty.
span y gjohnsit on Fri, 09/28/2018 - 9:16pm Last week the Trump Administration
ranted
against OPEC because the Iranian sanctions are driving up
oil prices .
That's called blowback.
Today we see the next level of
blowback.
The State Department says the U.S. consulate in the southern Iraqi city of Basra is being
evacuated following attacks blamed on Iran-backed militias. The U.S. embassy in Baghdad will
provide full consular services for Basra and the surrounding area, the State Department said.
What's most notable is the reaction by US
secretary of state Mike Pompeo.
US secretary of state Mike Pompeo directly threatened retaliation against Iran on Friday,
after accusing Iranian forces of repeatedly directing attacks against US diplomatic
facilities in Iraq.
"Iran should understand that the United States will respond promptly and appropriately to
any such attacks," Mr Pompeo said in a statement, adding both the US consulate general in
Basrah and the US embassy in Baghdad had been targeted.
Recently, #Iran -supported
militias in Iraq launched rocket attacks against the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and our
consulate in Basra. We'll hold #Iran 's regime
accountable for any attack on our personnel or facilities, and respond swiftly and decisively
in defense of American lives. pic.twitter.com/nqbmogbeCA
What is happening in Iraq could lead directly to a proxy war with Iran in Iraq.
The Pentagon says U.S. forces will
stay in Iraq "as long as needed". There are about 5,200 U.S. troops in Iraq, versus about
100,000 Shia militiamen.
Pompeo is working with Saudi Arabia to form an anti-Iran
coalition known as the Middle East Strategic Alliance.
As recently as April, the U.S. was telling those Shia militias were welcome in
Iraq.
Last month those Shia militias threatened to attack foreign
troops in Iraq if they didn't leave.
span y Amanda Matthews on Fri, 09/28/2018 - 9:59pm
" Has the regime in #Iran lived together with other nations in peace? Has it been a good
neighbor? Look around the world and you'll see the answer is a deafening "no."
"Iran-backed militias." That would be Iraqis, no? Is the ultimate plan then to, um,
eliminate Iraq's Shia? I expect to hear, soon, that Iraqi Shia test their chemical weapons on
children.
The UN Charter calls for nations to "live together in peace with one another as good
neighbors." Has the regime in #Iran lived together with other nations in peace? Has it been a
good neighbor? Look around the world and you'll see the answer is a deafening "no."
Why the leaders of the rest of the world didn't walk out on Trump when he threatened other
countries is beyond my comprehension. How much longer will they waste their citizen's lives and
their money just because we told them to jump?
Remember when Obama said that "no country should have to tolerate bombs dropping on them
from outside their borders?
I think those measure have implicit blessing from Washington, which realized how dangerous
withdrawal of Iraq oil from the market can be for the USA economy
The UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York is a place where world leaders are able to hold
important meetings behind closed doors. Russia, China, the UK, Germany, France, and the EU
seized that opportunity on Sept. 24 to achieve a real milestone.
The EU, Russia, China, and Iran
will create a special purpose vehicle (SPV), a "financially independent sovereign channel,"
to bypass US sanctions against Tehran and breathe life into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) , which is in jeopardy. "Mindful of the urgency and the need for tangible
results, the participants welcomed practical proposals to maintain and develop payment
channels, notably the initiative to establish a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to facilitate
payments related to Iran's exports, including oil," they announced in a
joint statement. The countries are still working out the technical details. If their plan
succeeds, this will deliver a blow to the dollar and a boost to the euro.
The move is being made in order to save the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. According to Federica
Mogherini , High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security
Policy, the SPV will facilitate payments for Iran's exports, such as oil, and imports so that
companies can do business with Tehran as usual. The vehicle will be available not just to EU
firms but to others as well. A round of US sanctions aimed at ending Iranian oil exports is to
take effect on November 5. Iran is the world's seventh-largest oil producer. Its oil sector
accounts for 70% of the country's exports. Tehran has warned the EU that it should find new
ways of trading with Iran prior to that date, in order to preserve the JCPOA.
The SPV proposes to set up a multinational, European, state-backed financial intermediary to
work with companies interested in trading with Iran. Payments will be made in currencies other
than the dollar and remain outside the reach of those global money-transfer systems under US
control. In August, the EU passed a blocking statute to guarantee the immunity of European
companies from American punitive measures. It empowers EU firms to seek compensation from the
United States Treasury for its attempts to impose extra-territorial sanctions. No doubt the
move will further damage the already strained US-EU relationship. It might be helpful to create
a special EU company for oil exports from Iran.
Just hours after the joint statement on the SPV, US President Trump defended his unilateral
action against Iran in his
UNGA address . US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned the EU initiative ,
stating:
"This is one of the most counterproductive measures imaginable for regional global peace
and security."
To wit, the EU, Russia, and China have banded together in open defiance against unilateral
steps taken by the US. Moscow and Beijing are in talks on how to combine their efforts to fend
off the negative impacts of US trade tariffs and sanctions. A planned Sept 24-25 visit by
Chinese Vice-Premier Liu, who was coming to the United States for trade talks, was cancelled as
a result of the discord and President Trump added more fuel to the fire on Sept. 24 by imposing
10% tariffs on almost half of all goods the US imports from China. "We have far more bullets,"
the president
said before the Chinese official's planned visit. "We're going to go US$200 billion and 25
per cent Chinese made goods. And we will come back with more." The US has recently imposed
sanctions on China to punish it for the purchase of Russian S-400 air-defense systems and
combat planes. Beijing refused to back down. It is also adamant in its desire to continue
buying Iran's oil.
It is true, the plan to skirt the sanctions might fall short of expectations. It could fail
as US pressure mounts. A number of economic giants, including Total, Peugeot, Allianz, Renault,
Siemens, Daimler, Volvo, and Vitol Group have already left Iran as its economy plummets, with
the rial losing two-thirds of its value since the first American sanctions took effect in May.
The Iranian currency dropped to a record low against the US dollar this September.
What really matters is the fact that the leading nations of the EU have joined the global
heavyweights -- Russia and China -- in open defiance of the United States.
This is a milestone event.
It's hard to underestimate its importance. Certainly, it's too early to say that the UK and
other EU member states are doing a sharp pivot toward the countries that oppose the US
globally, but this is a start - a first step down that path. This would all have seemed
unimaginable just a couple of years ago - the West and the East in the same boat, trying to
stand up to the American bully!
"... So, Donald Trump finally folding on stopping Nordstream 2 is yet another example of the limits of what power the U.S. has and of its threats. When he denounced the project he said, ..."
"... "I never thought it was appropriate. I think it's ridiculous. And I think it's certainly a very bad thing for the people of Germany. And I've said it very loud and clear." ..."
"... But notice that he never said why. Because there is no downside for Germany. That's the point. Russian piped gas is simply cheaper and more reliable than LNG produced more than 3000 miles away. The downside is for the U.S. ..."
"... It begins the process of Germany and Russia re-establishing stronger economic ties cut in half by the 2014 sanctions over Crimea. It keeps Merkel in power a little while longer having stood up to the bully Trump and showing some German independence. ..."
"... Most importantly, this gas will be paid for in euros, not dollars. And this further undermines the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions as Gazprom will have a steady supply of euros to pay back its investors and diversify Russia's currency reserves. ..."
"... We saw this last winter when vicious cold snaps forced a hostile Britain to buy a few tankers of Yamal LNG from Novatek to keep its citizens from freezing. With the planet cooling rapidly, expect this source of spot demand to Europe to increase. ..."
"... But, for Germany, and the EU as a whole, more cheap energy is the path to remaining somewhat relevant in the global economy. With Germany ending the use of nuclear power it needs the type of energy Nordstream 2 supplies. In fact, Germany will eventually need Nordstream 3. ..."
Since its first announcement I have been convinced the Nordstream 2 pipeline would be built.
I have followed every twist of this story from my days writing for Newsmax.
And the reason for my confidence can be summed up in one word. Money.
Nordstream 2 simply makes too much economic sense for any amount of political whining from
the U.S. and Poland to stop it. Poland has no power within the European Union.
Germany does. And while I'm no fan of Angela Merkel getting another political weapon to hold
over the heads of the Poles, their attempts to derail the project were always going to end in
tears for them.
And so now Poland and the U.S. cried a lot of crocodile tears recently when President Trump
finally acceded to reality and ended the threat of sanctioning five of the biggest oil majors
in the world over doing business with Gazprom over Nordstream 2.
Nordstream 2's investors are Uniper, OMV, Wintershall, Royal Dutch Shell and Engie. After
all the permits were issued and construction begun the only thing that could stop Nordstream
from happening was these five companies folding to U.S. pressure and backing out of the project
by calling in their loans to Gazprom.
And when they were unwilling to do that, Trump had to fold because you can't cut these
companies out of the western banking system and starve them of dollars and euros without an
extreme dislocation in oil prices and global trade.
Bluff called. Nordstream 2? Holding Aces.
Trump? Holding two-seven offsuit.
Lack of Polish
The big loser here is Poland unless they come down off their Russophobic high horse.
Why is Nordstream 2 so important to Poland? Because it forces Poland into choosing between
two things the current ruling Law and Justice Party doesn't like.
Renegotiating a gas transit deal with Gazprom through Ukrainian pipelines without as much
leverage. Because the current agreement expires at the end of 2019.
If they reject this first option then they are at the mercy of buying gas from Nordstream
2 putting them politically in the hands of Germany.
Merkel is angry with Poland for trying to assert its sovereignty having begun Article 7
proceedings over their law putting Supreme Court justices under review from the legislature,
which the EU has termed a violation of its pledge to protect 'human rights.'
And so, expect Poland to now open up talks with Gazprom to negotiate a new deal or be stupid
and buy LNG from the U.S. at two to three times the price they can get it from
Gazprom.
Keeping Them Distant
From the U.S. side of the equation there are few things in this life that Donald Trump and
Barack Obama agree upon, and stopping Nordstream 2 was one of them. This, of course, tells you
that this opposition is coming from somewhere a lot higher than the Presidency.
U.S. and British foreign policy has been obsessed for more than a hundred years with
stopping the natural alliance between Germany's industrial base and Russia's vast tracts of
natural resources as well as Russia's own science and engineering prowess.
These two countries cannot, in any version of a unipolar world dominated by The Davos
Crowd, be allowed to form an economic no less political alliance because the level of
coordination and economic prosperity works directly against their goals of lowering everyone's
expectations for what humans can accomplish.
That is their greatest source of power. The complacency of our accepting low
expectations.
So, Donald Trump finally folding on stopping Nordstream 2 is yet another example of the
limits of what power the U.S. has and of its threats.
When he denounced the project he said,
"I never thought it was appropriate. I think it's ridiculous. And I think it's certainly a
very bad thing for the people of Germany. And I've said it very loud and clear."
But notice that he never said why. Because there is no downside for Germany. That's the point. Russian piped gas is simply
cheaper and more reliable than LNG produced more than 3000 miles away. The downside is for the U.S.
It begins the process of Germany and Russia re-establishing stronger economic ties cut in
half by the 2014 sanctions over Crimea. It keeps Merkel in power a little while longer having
stood up to the bully Trump and showing some German independence.
This is something she sorely needs right now coming into regional elections in October.
Most importantly, this gas will be paid for in euros, not dollars. And this further
undermines the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions as Gazprom will have a steady supply of euros to
pay back its investors and diversify Russia's currency reserves.
The Flow of Money
There is no way for U.S. LNG supplies to be competitive in Europe without massive artificial
barriers-to-entry for Russian gas. And even if Nordstream 2 was somehow stopped by the U.S.,
Russia's massive Yamal LNG facility on the Baltic Sea would still out compete U.S LNG from
Cheniere's terminal in Louisiana.
Location. Location. Location.
We saw this last winter when vicious cold snaps forced a hostile Britain to buy a few
tankers of Yamal LNG from Novatek to keep its citizens from freezing. With the planet cooling
rapidly, expect this source of spot demand to Europe to increase.
And this is why Russia also benefits from Poland building an LNG terminal. Because don't for
a second think Poles will suffer extreme cold because Andrej Duda hates Russians.
That's just funny, right thar!
But, for Germany, and the EU as a whole, more cheap energy is the path to remaining somewhat
relevant in the global economy. With Germany ending the use of nuclear power it needs the type
of energy Nordstream 2 supplies. In fact, Germany will eventually need Nordstream 3.
Each intervention by the U.S. or one of its satraps (and Poland's leadership certainly fills
that bill) to block any further business between Russia and Europe, but especially Germany,
keeps the world on edge and inches us closer to a military confrontation while open trade and
travel moves us farther from that outcome.
And anyone who argues otherwise is simply talking their book. They profit from war
and tension. They profit from manipulating markets and, in effect, stealing the wealth someone
else created.
So, this is not to say that Nordstream 2 is some kind of messianic gift from the gods or
anything. It is the result of massive interventions into the free market for energy born of
necessity in a world governed by nation-states for more powerful than they have any right to be
because of control of the issuance of money and the rent-seeking behavior of the
people who most benefit from the creation of endless supplies of that money.
But, that said, in the current state of things, rapprochement between Germany and Russia via
projects like the Nordstream 2 points us towards a future without such nonsense.
I said points, not achieves. It's a beginning not an end. Lost in all of this discussion of
European energy security is the fact that even at the height of the Cold War the U.S.S.R. never
once shut off gas supplies to its enemies. And under Putin that fact remains.
And how's that for an inconvenient truth.
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Порошенко
заявил немцам,
что
строительство
"Северного
потока – 2" не
имеет никакого
смыслаPoroshenko has told Germans that the
construction of "North Stream 2" makes no sense. По его словам,
российский газ
европейцам
гораздо
выгоднее
получать через
Украину, а
новый
газопровод –
лишь
"инструмент
давления" на
Европу According to him, it is much more profitable to send Russian gas to Europe through the
Ukraine, and the new pipeline is just a "tool to pressurize" on Europe
Please help me get even more wealthier, I beg you!
The leader of "Independent" Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, has once again tried to convince
Europeans that they do not need the "North Stream 2", pipeline, which is being constructed on
the bed of the Baltic sea, bypassing the Ukraine
"This pipeline makes no sense from an economic point of view. This is a Russian attempt
to weaken the Ukraine, which previously received about three billion dollars annually for
transit", he said in an interview with German newspaper "Rheinische Post".
According to Poroshenko, "Why spend $20 billion on a pipeline", if his country "has
more than sufficient logistical capacity for the delivery of Russian gas to Europe". He
stressed that "the facts speak against" this project.
The President of the Ukraine has decided to warn his "European friends" that the gas
pipeline "North Stream 2" is "a geopolitical instrument of pressure on Western Europe, and
that the dependence of European countries on gas supplies from Russia is opening up a wide
area for their blackmailing".
Recall, as reported by the website kp.ru previously, the Chancellor of Germany, Angela
Merkel, speaking at a joint press conference with the President of Lithuania, Dalia
Grybauskaite, and the Prime Ministers of the three Baltic State countries, stated the
importance of the "North Stream 2" project for Germany, noting that the need of her contry
for natural gas supplies will only grow.
Put a sock in it, Banderatard. Nord Stream II makes sense merely because it removes the $3
billion per year of transit fees you parasites charge. The Banderatard thinks that everyone
is an innumerate moron.
I notice the estimated transit fees have gone up by almost a billion dollars. I wonder if
they have budgeted in planned increases if they are successful at getting Nord Stream II shut
down. Or were they just low-balling the figures before, like when they were joking about the
planned pipeline and how it would make no difference to Ukraine?
Ignoring reality and focusing just on a comparison of a $3 billion recurring expense versus a
$20 billion CAPEX, a ROI of less than 7 years is quite respectable for a major project.
Another landmark for the "Northeastern passage" -- so far only tankers had made the trip
Brendon Petersen
16 hours
ago
|
1,546
5
Explorers and navigators have long searched for a way to move ships through the Arctic Circle as find a faster way
to move goods between the Atlantic and the Pacific without having to go around either Asia or South America.
Groups of people hunted for the fabled Northwest passage through North America for decades. The problem, of
course, is that the Arctic contains too much ice.
Over the past few years, however, ice levels in the Arctic
have been
hitting
record lows
thanks to climate change, and while its effects are almost universally negative, one benefit is
opened northern sea routes. Over the past month, a container ship sailing from Eastern Russia is pioneering a new
Arctic route by
being
the first such ship to cross the Arctic Ocean
.
On August 23, the container ship Venta Maersk left the Russian port of Vladivostok and headed to Bremerhaven in
Germany. Normally, a trip like that would take the Venta Maersk through the Suez Canal on a 34 day trip. Instead,
the ship will sail through the sea north of Russia on a route that will only take 23 days.
Last week, the Venta Maersk passed through the Sannikov Strait, the narrowest and most hazardous part of its
journey, and is expected to arrive in Germany by the end of the week. Once it arrives, it will become the first
container ship to complete a successful route through the Arctic Circle.
We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long
without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices! We will
remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!
OPEC does, in fact, control oil supply to a significant extent but that does not necessarily
mean that it is also in full control of the oil prices, Jack Rasmus, a professor of Political
Economy at St. Mary's College of California, told RT, adding that the policies pursued by the
US president himself play a much bigger role in what happens to oil and gasoline prices in the
US.
"The US economy is overstimulated by the Trump $4 trillion tax cuts for investors and
businesses," Rasmus explained, adding that the rising inflation is one of the primary
factors contributing to the oil price surge. Apart from that, Trump's trade war with China and
even with the US allies in the West also drives up the prices, as businesses also have to raise
them to adapt to the tariffs that both the US and its trading partners have imposed
recently.
Trump's sanctions war on Iran also does not make the situation any better. The US sanctions,
which are aimed at bringing Iran's oil exports to "zero," led to a decrease in Iran's
oil sales, thus cutting the supply and driving the prices up. As if it was not enough, Trump's
rhetoric only adds fuel to the fire, according to Rasmus.
"When Trump accuses Iran publicly, it gives the global oil speculators a reason to drive
up the price," he told RT, adding that it is the "global speculators that are driving the
short-term oil prices." "There is a connection between the speculators and Trump policies. When
he makes those statements, it certainly does contribute to the oil prices rise," the analyst
explained.
This rhetoric was more about winning voters' support ahead of the November mid-term
elections than about really remedying the situation in the oil market, Rasmus says. "He is
whipping up his domestic base," the analyst said, adding that "Trump [is] trying to
blame foreigners of all kinds for economic situation in the US."
Trump got elected on a platform of economic nationalism in particular, Rasmus said, adding
that the president now sticks to that narrative and blames foreigners –be they immigrants
or some foreign competitors– for the US' woes. However, this is "another factual
misrepresentation," the analyst said.
As oil prices remain high, prices for gasoline in the US are growing. The average cost of
gasoline has risen 60 percent from $1.87 per gallon in February 2016 to over $3 in
September.
This scenario would leave the US with the main sources of 'low production cost' Middle
East energy in its hands (i.e. Gulf, Iran and Iraqi oil and gas). On the face of this week's
events however, it looks more likely that these resources - or at least, the greater energy
resources of Iran and Iraq - will end up in the Russian sphere (together with Syria's
unexplored Levant Basin prospects). And this Russian 'heartland', energy-producing sphere,
may, in the end, prove to be a more than substantive rival to US (newly emerged as 'the
world's top oil producer') aspirations for restoring its Mideast energy dominance.....
The piece covers both Trump's plans for global energy dominance by taking full control of
middle east oil and also the Trump Kushner moves against the Palestinians.
Russia and the West are facing the worst crisis since the Cold War. According to US Special
Envoy Amos Hochstein, Washington's goal is to reduce Russia's gas market share in Eastern
Europe by 20% by 2020.
Russia cannot be allowed to build a gas pipeline that would bypass
Ukraine, as it would pose a threat to Europe's energy security
Pipeline bypassing Ukraine = threat to Europe's energy security
That is a total non sequitur. Also, Russia is part of Europe. The EU is not the whole of
"Europe". In fact, the EU is not even the EU as evidenced by Hungary and Italy.
And Washington can have Eastern Europe. Go ahead – take them as customers, and sell
them expensive LNG they can't afford. Russia would probably be glad to be shut of Poland and
the Baltics. And having to pay way more for their gas would teach them a lesson. Win/win.
Pipeline bypassing Ukraine = threat to Europe's energy security
That is a total non sequitur. Also, Russia is part of Europe. The EU is not the whole of
"Europe". In fact, the EU is not even the EU as evidenced by Hungary and Italy.
And Washington can have Eastern Europe. Go ahead – take them as customers, and sell
them expensive LNG they can't afford. Russia would probably be glad to be shut of Poland and
the Baltics. And having to pay way more for their gas would teach them a lesson. Win/win.
Doesn't the pipeline via the lo-land of Po-land go via Belarus? Warsaw buying gas from
elsewhere would starve Minsk of transit fees, no? Maybe the idea is similarly to undermine
Belarus and thus impose further costs/indirect sanctions on Russia?
So what does Trump do before the midterms? Live with higher prices? Quietly drop the
sanctions ? Find a way to get Iranian oil on the market while pretending there are sanctions?
Accept the high prices and blame Obama?
Oil price can rise some, now. It's only a month and a half to go. Gasoline stocks are high,
so it will take some trickle down time. Raiding the SPR is overkill.
I'm betting they don't. Saudi production in September is more likely to be down than up. But
if it is up it will only by a tiny amount, not near enough to affect prices. Saudi Arabis is
just not interested in increasing production by any significant amount. They would like to
keep production steady .if possible.
"Just spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and explained to him that, because of the
turmoil & disfunction in Iran and Venezuela, I am asking that Saudi Arabia increase oil
production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make up the difference Prices to high! He has
agreed!" the tweet read.
And of course, after the King hung up the phone he probably said: "We are not going
to do any of that shit." The Saudis, just like Trump's staff, know he is an idiot.
"And of course, after the King hung up the phone he probably said: "We are not going to do
any of that shit."
I doubt that happened but I don't have any inside contacts in the WH to confirm. My guess
is that Trump has turned up the heat on Iran because of requests from KSA & Israel.
The USA has been helping MbS with is Yemen war, as well as proxy war in Syria. If KSA want
the US to economically crush Iran, than KSA will need to help but increasing its Oil exports.
Perhaps KSA as some oil stashed in storage that it could release for a short period. My guess
KSA would delay using its storage reserves until there is a price spike that might force the
US to back off on Iran.
I doubt that happened but I don't have any inside contacts in the WH to confirm.
You doubt what happened? The quote was a tweet directly from the President. He sent it out
to the world, you don't need an inside contact to the White House. Trump's tweets go out to
the public.
Yes, it did happen. Of course, the part about what the King did afterward was just
speculation on my part. But he did not increase oil production as Trump requested. That much
we do know.
Not arguing the tweet Trumpet made, but your reasoning that the MbS will ignore the
request.
I am reasonably sure MbS wants the USA to go after Iran, and thus has a motive to try to
comply with Trumpet's request for more Oil. That said, I very much doubt KSA can increase
production, but they may have 50 to 150 mmbl in storage they could release if Oil prices
spike.
FYI:
"Why The U.S. Is Suddenly Buying A Lot More Saudi Oil"
" the Saudis are responding to the demands of their staunch ally U.S. President Donald
Trump, who has repeatedly slammed OPEC for the high gasoline prices, urging the cartel in
early July to "REDUCE PRICING NOW!""
"Saudi Arabia cut last week its official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light
grade for October to Asia by US$0.10 a barrel to US$1.10 a barrel premium to the Dubai/Oman
average"
So it appears that KSA is trying to comply with Trumpet's request. At least by trying to
lower the oil prices via selling their oil at a discount.
** Note: Not trying to be a PITA, just providing an alternative viewpoint. I do value what
you post. Hope you understand.
So people think that oil production next year will not meet demand. Of course consumption
will equal production, but demand will be higher, and we won't be belabor this further
because the point here is a question above -- how does society react too insufficient oil?
The question is never analyzed in a particular way. It's usually evaluated from the
consumer's perspective. Who does what to get the oil they need. We can imagine they bid
higher, we can imagine that day seize the oil enroute to someone else, and we can imagine a
magical agreement on the part of everyone to stop all economic activity not involved in food
production/distribution to reduce global consumption.
What seldom is described is the decision making process within the leadership of oil
producers and exporters. It seems clear that a sudden awareness of insufficiency would yield
leadership meetings making decisions not about how to distribute more oil to customers, but
rather how to keep the oil for future generations of the producing country, without getting
invaded and destroyed.
One would think that the optimal strategy for a country that has oil is to ally itself
with a military power that can deter invasion by some other military power, without having
the ally's troops actually present on the territory. Or perhaps more effective would be
investing in the necessary explosives or nuclear material for one's own oil fields, and
inform potential invaders that the oil will remain the property of the country whose
geography covers it, or the fields will be contaminated for hundreds of years to deny them to
anyone else.
Clearly this is the optimal path for an oil producer and not seeking some technology that
can allow them to drain the resources of future generations more rapidly now.
So people think that oil production next year will not meet demand. Of course consumption
will equal production, but demand will be higher,
Watcher, I assume you think demand is what people want. But there is no way to measure
what people want but can't afford. So "demand" in that sense has no meaning whatsoever. So
what happens is the price of gasoline, or whatever, rises or falls until supply equals
demand. As prices rise, demand falls and as prices fall, demand rises because people can now
afford it. Therefore demand always equals consumption. Demand is what people buy at the
price they can afford. I wish we had a word for what people want but even if we did there
would be no way to measure it. A poll perhaps?
Estimating demand is essential for a company and can determine its survival. Demand is
dependent on price, so demand estimates are essential for deciding the price of a product.
The curves for price and demand cross at a point that maximizes income.
Demand is estimated statistically (polls sometimes), with models, and expert forecast. It
has a large uncertainty.
"there is no way to measure what people want but can't afford."
That is potential demand at a lower price point. It is estimated in the same way.
Companies decide to lower their prices with hopes to realize that lower-price demand.
"demand always equals consumption."
Exactly. Demand becomes consumption when realized, so it only makes sense to talk about
demand in the future or the present (due to lack of real-time data). It doesn't make sense to
talk about past demand, because it becomes consumption or sales.
There is a numerical measure for how much people want gasoline, regardless of price.
It is the length of the line of cars at the gas station in the 1970s. Demand was measured
in 100s of feet. Price somewhat doesn't matter. If you can't afford it, you put it on a
credit card and then default.
The length of the queue is an interesting metric by which to measure the want that people
have for an item. Nice one. I'm gonna use that. Reminds me of my Dad's old story about lining
up for a week to buy tickets to see The Beatles.
When you are lining up to buy tickets to see the Beatles it might be called a 'Want' or a
'Desire'. However, when it is the line at the soup kitchen it becomes 'Hunger' or
'Desperation'!
And that queue can sometimes feel like a hundred miles
The bigger issue is people, Business, & gov'ts servicing their debt. If the cost of
energy increases, it make it more difficult to service their debt. Recall that Oil prices
peaked at $147 right before the beginning of the 2008/2009 economic crisis. Since then 2008
Debt continued to soar as companies & gov'ts piled on more debt. Debt is promise on
future production. Borrow now and pay it back over time.
I recall the presentation Steven Kopits did about 4 or 5 years ago that stated Oil
production was well below demand. I think real global oil demand was projected to be about
120mmbd back in 2012-2013 (sorry don't recall the actual figures).
I think the bigger factor is how steep the declines will be. Presumably all of the super
giants are in the same shape and likely heavily relied on horizontal drilling to offset
natural decline rates. Presuming as the oil column shrinks in the decline rates will rapidly
accelerate. Most of the Artic\Deep water projects were cancelled back in 2014\2015, and I
believe most of those projects would take about 7 years to complete and need between Oil at
$120 to $150/bbl (in 2012 dollars) to be economical. I am not sure the world can sustainably
afford $120+ oil, especially considering the amount of new debt that has been added in the
past 10 years.
Ron Wrote:
" I wish we had a word for what people want but even if we did there would be no way to
measure it"
Perhaps the word "Gluttony" or the phase "Business As Usual". People don't like change,
especially when the result, is a decrease in living standards.
Being willing to pay more for oil may change who gets it. But it will not alter the fact that
someone who wants oil will not get it. That will be a ripple of market information which will
travel around the world pretty quick, I should imagine!
The vast majority in almost all the places in the world would like to use more oil but their
income is not enough so they end up doing with less. That includes me. Who doesn't want a
bigger faster newer lawn mower, truck, or tractor? What person would not prefer the latest
iphone etc. ? or going on vacation, eating out at high end steakhouses? The main reason they
can't is because it would take more and cheaper oil for them to be able to afford it. Else
they can only try to take it away from someone else? The peak in global oil production/person
happened back in 1979, not because folks were tired of using it all but due to the laws of
physics coming into play.
So there are two 'classes' of 'peak oil'. One class is where oil supply is constrained by
price (throwing more money at production sees an increase in production), the second class is
where oil supply is constrained by physical availability at any price (wave more money at
production, but production cannot increase).
In the first case (price constrained) normal market behaviour will apply – folk pay
more (if they can afford it) to get more.
But in the second case (resource constrained), it does not matter how much is offered,
there is simply no more oil to be had.
With the prevailing declining yields and declining discoveries, are we not in the
transition between these two states – moving from price constrained to resource
constrained? And once we get well into resource constrained, the price a buyer can pay will
determine who gets the remaining available oil, and no amount of screeching and
dollar-bill-waving by those who have missed out will improve the supply situation for
them.
LTO decline rate would be no problem by a conventional / state possessed oil company.
They would have a field with tight oil, and then just equip let's say 20 fracking /
drilling teams and start to produce through their field in 30 or 50 years. They would have a
slow decline by starting at the best location and getting to the worse one, while increasing
experience / technic during the years to compensate a bit.
You have a pretty good argument except for the "30 or 50 years" part. That's where the wheels
fell off your go-cart. Just how large would the tight oil reservoir have to be to keep 20
drilling and fracking units for 30 to 50 years? And if you assume other oil companies are in
that same reservoir doing the same thing? They are going to cover a lot of acreage very fast.
It matters very little. At any time t the available supply is limited and the market price
will determine who gets what is available. Those willing to pay more than others will get the
oil. When we reach a point where no more oil can be supplied at price P, there might always
be some more oil that could be at some higher price P', it is simply a matter of oil prices
reaching the point that there are substitutes that can replace the use of oil in some uses.
Today the biggest use for oil is transport and electricity and natural gas may soon replace a
lot of this use, especially as oil becomes scarce and prices increase.
At $100 to $120/b the transition to EVs could be quite rapid, maybe taking 20 to 25 years
to replace 90% of new ICEV sales and then another 15 years for most of the fleet to be
replaced as old cars are scrapped. So by 2055 most land transport uses for oil will be
eliminated.
The higher oil prices rise, the more incentive there will be to switch to cheaper EVs,
even natural gas will probably not be able to compete with EVs as Natural Gas will also peak
(2030 to 2035) and prices will rise. It will probably be unwise to spend a lot of money for
Natural gas fueling infrastructure, though perhaps it might work for long haul trucking, rail
seems a more sensible option.
Adam Ash Wrote:
"So there are two 'classes' of 'peak oil'. One class is where oil supply is constrained by
price (throwing more money at production sees an increase in production), the second class is
where oil supply is constrained by physical availability at any price (wave more money at
production, but production cannot increase)"
Consider this way:
There is already a huge shortage of $10/bbl oil, and a massive glut of $300/bbl oil. There is
always shortage resources. Price is just a system that balances demand with supply.
Adam Ash Wrote:
"But in the second case (resource constrained), it does not matter how much is offered, there
is simply no more oil to be had no amount of screeching and dollar-bill-waving by those who
have missed out will improve the supply situation for them."
Not exactly. People that can only afford $50/bbl Oil get out priced by people willing to
pay $100/bbl. Supply shifts to the people that can afford the hire price at the expense of
people that cannot afford the higher cost. Higher prices will lead to new production, even if
has a Negative EROEI (ie tar sands using cheap NatGas).
In an ideal world, higher prices lead to less energy waste (flying, recreation boating)
and better efficiency (more energy efficient buildings & vehicles). But I am not sure
that will be the case in our world.
The first to suffer from high energy prices will be the people living in poor nations.
Recall back in 2008-2014 we had the Arab spring when people could afford the food costs, and
started mass riots and overthrough gov'ts. This will return when Oil prices climb back
up.
Its possible that the world make continue to experience price swings, as global demand
struction decreases demand. For instance in July 2008 Oil was at $147/bbl but by Jan 2009 it
was about $30/bbl. I doubt we will see such large price swings, but I also doubt that Oil
will continuously move up without any price corrections.
Realistically we are in deflation driven global economy as the excessive debt applies
deflationary force to the economy. However central banks counter deflation with artificially
low interest rates and currency printing (ie Quantitive Easing). My guess is that
industrialized nation gov't will become increasing dependent on QE and other gimmicks that
lead to high inflation\stagnation.
I think Dennis said some time ago that Saudi's 266 billion barrels of reserves that they
claim was perhaps when they raised P2 reserves to P1 reserves.
Naaaa, that's not where they got it. They still claim 403 billion barrels of P2 reserves
and 802 billion barrels of P3 reserves. And that 802 billion barrels will soon be increased
to 900 billion barrels via enhanced recovery techniques.
This is a good article if you need a good belly laugh today. It is brought to you on the
opinion page of Arab News. Arab News is a Saudi Publication just in case anyone is
wondering. I used to get it in hard copy, free, courtesy of ARAMCO, when I was there.
Saudi Aramco, according to its own records, has about 802.2 billion barrels of oil
resources, including about 261 billion barrels of proven reserves; 403.1 billion of probable,
possible and contingent reserves. The company has produced up to 138 billion barrels of oil
to date out of the 802.2 billion barrels.
It plans to raise oil resources to 900 billion barrels from the 802.2 billion over the
long term as its also plans to increase recovery rate of reserves to 70 percent from the
current 50 percent.
P.S. When I was in Saudi they had a word for this kind of thing. They called it
wasta . Wasta means "deliberate exaggeration" as a way of dialogue. That's just the
way they talk. They don't believe they are lying. They really expect you to know they are
just exaggerating. They don't expect you to take it literally.
Another problem is how much gas for sale the USA actually has? Or they want to resell gas
they buy for Russia Sakhalin? They already did a couple of times.
Oh, please, God, let the USA impose sanctions on European companies in an attempt to stop the
building of Nord Stream II (which, incidentally, has begun and is already underwater).
I can't think of anything more likely to incite European fury against America, and while
we're on the subject, under what authority would the USA fine European companies for not
obeying sanctions imposed by the USA? I can see how they could get away with further
penalizing Russia – they are piggybacking on the Skripal affair, that's why they
pretend so fervently to believe Britain's accusations even though it has offered no proof at
all, just more accusations. The legal instrument it is using is a national-security clause
(big surprise) meant to stop the spread of chemical-warfare threats. But how is it going to
justify imposing a big fine on BASF-Wintershall, for example, and what would it do if the
latter simply said, "Cram it up your chuff!" and refused to pay?
Anyway, the calling-out of Britain's 'evidence' in front of the UN is going to be
extra-special, in that light. Because the Skripal thing is the USA's whole basis for further
sanctions. Without it – if the case is demolished, and I frankly can't see how the UK
government could sensibly respond to all the discrepancies picked up at sites like Slane's
'Blogmire' – they've got nothing; no grounds for further sanctions.
And that was perfectly possible, had it been started years ago, and had the USA come to
Europe with a business plan which answered the question, "What's in it for me?" Everybody in
business likes to make money; it's kind of what keeps business going. And if the USA could
still sell to Europe under those circumstances – because it has a lot of a product it
can sell at a competitive price and still make money – it would still be possible to do
it. The problem there is that the USA cannot sell LNG at a competitive price against pipeline
gas and still make money. A further problem is that in business dynamics, the guy who has
control in a business relationship is the guy who supplies you with a product you can't get
anywhere else at the same or a lower price.
The USA wants the profits realized by selling gas to Europe, and right away, that's not
going to work, because shipborne LNG cannot compete with pipeline gas for price. The USA
would have to sell it for a lot less than it takes to recover and ship it, and it's not
willing to do that because it is contrary to every principle of business. But that's a big
problem, because the profit is actually secondary. What Washington really wants is the power
conveyed by being Europe's main supplier – then it can play energy politics like it
constantly accuses Russia of doing, although actual evidence of Russia threatening to cut off
Europe's gas if it does not, let's say, drop sanctions against Russia, is zip, Nada. No
evidence. But Washington would do it, and you know they would, and so does Brussels. So it is
trying to muscle Europe's main supplier out of the market by coercion, because it can't do it
simply by offering a better price.
Which leaves it in the ridiculous position of arguing, "We should be your supplier instead
of Russia, because ain't we the bestest of friends and allies?", at the same time it is
conducting a trade war for American business advantage and threatening to impose sanctions
against European companies who participate in the pipeline project as investors.
Here we go again with reliable pot-stirrer the UK, in the form of a ruling by the UK Court of
Appeals that Ukraine does have a valid case, after all, of grieving the ordered repayment of $3
Billion it was lent by Moscow after Yanukovych decided to reject the European Association
Agreement, and petitioned Russia for assistance.
Some facts that should be recalled here; Ukraine has to the very best of my knowledge
never paid this debt, although the IMF
grudgingly backed Russia's claim that it was a bilateral loan . Then Ukraine imposed a
moratorium on further payments, trying to squeeze Russia into accepting a 'restructuring' of
the debt, a colourful euphemism for 'write off some of it and give us until forever to pay
the rest', allowing Ukraine to simply roll over its outstanding debt each year and put off
payment until the promised western flood of incredible prosperity finally arrives.
The ever-helpful IMF then rewrote its own laws so that it could continue lending to
Ukraine although it exhibited all the classic symptoms of a bad debtor. Most of us said it
would all end in tears for the IMF, and where is it now, again? How much of that $17 Billion
aid package has been disbursed?
Georgetown University Professor Anna Gelpern offered Ukraine
an out , stating that in her legal opinion, the obligation amounted to 'odious debt',
which consequently did not have to be repaid. Longtime kook Anders Aslund enthusiastically
embraced that view, bleating that really Russia should be repaying Ukraine, for invading and
plundering it.
Let me give you my not-legal opinion; Ukraine does not have a hope of winning this case.
The UK is just trying to help it kick the can a little further down the road, and put off
repayment for another year or two while the courts wrangle the issue out all over again, and
lawyers pocket hefty fees. It also serves the British hobby of sticking its thumb in Russia's
eye every chance it gets to do it. The money is probably not a big issue to Russia; it's the
principle, and it would probably suit the Kremlin to duke it out in court again just on the
probability that Ukraine will suffer another humiliating defeat, although that will make no
difference at all to its willingness to pay. I propose, though, another option; one to be
exercised immediately, and one down the road a bit. First, communicate to Kuh-yiv that if it
goes ahead with this, Russia will pull out all foreign investment in Ukraine, immediately and
finally. I personally do not think the economy could sustain that kind of hit, since it is on
life support now. Second, Russia should communicate to Britain that once Brexit becomes
operative, the UK will have to negotiate with Europe for energy supplies and pay their asking
price, since there will be no direct transfers of energy to the UK. That might have been the
case anyway, since to the best of my knowledge no systems serve the UK directly from Russia
except LNG cargoes. But it would not hurt to remind them.
It occurs to me that the west has only itself to blame for Ukraine's current and ongoing
dysfunction and 'cutie-pie' criminality, since the west keeps encouraging it to greater
heights of irresponsibility, covering for it and then rewriting its own rules so that
behaviour previously illegal is magically permissible.
The London High Court is not going to like being reversed; such reversals often do not look
good for the judges, although there certainly cannot be any murmuring of 'political
motivation' here, since the court was most decidedly motivated to rule for Ukraine in the
original judgment if it could. As I said, this is just kicking the can down the road a piece,
and buying time for Kuh-yiv. And that might be a valid strategy, if a burgeoning economy was
about to break free in Ukraine. Is that the case? I'm afraid I don't think so. In fact,
Ukraine is broke and living on handouts, its reserves down to record lows; it doesn't have
the money, so the UK is trying to rig the judgment so as to head off its having to pay, at
least temporarily. More short-term thinking, such as is characteristic of crisis management.
The Appeals Court is likely ruling on a technicality because it believes (or has been
encouraged to believe) it deserves further examination. But, again, I have to believe that in
such a politically-charged case, the court which rendered the original verdict would have
carefully picked over every argument which might have worked in Ukraine's favour, since the
UK was highly motivated to support Ukraine if there were any way it could legally do so. The
efficacy, reliability and non-volatility of Eurobonds is at stake here, and a ruling now for
Ukraine is likely to provoke a drawback from Eurobonds and European financial instruments by
every nation that perceives it is or might one day be perceived as a foe of a Europe still in
thrall to the United States. Russia chose such an instrument precisely because of the high
risk of a Ukrainian default even if Yanukovych had remained in power, and that was a wise
decision to the extent that the west has had to completely rewrite the book in order to
challenge the stratagem. That, too, will play to its great disadvantage down the road, as
every debtor nation has the right of precedent to exercise such options.
The funny thing is that if Europe simply laid out the situation bluntly to Moscow, as an
equal and a respected partner to the deal, and asked for mercy for Ukraine, there is every
chance Moscow would find a way to accommodate, provided it was given due credit for its
magnanimity. Instead, as usual, Europe has gone with a strategy of creating the appearance
that Moscow fucked Ukraine, breaking the law in the process. It will be interesting to see
what Alexander Mercouris has to say about this, and I am sure he will offer an opinion, but
I'm afraid I haven't time now as I have to get ready for work. But I should like to once more
point out that all the advantage lies with Russia here, if it only remains patient and keeps
its temper; it is Russia which is keeping Ukraine alive now, through transit fees and
significant FDI. It can choose to withdraw one at any time it pleases, and the other as soon
as Nord Stream II is completed. The west's attempts to change the beloved 'facts on the
ground' amount to no more than scrabbling at the noose that is tightening around Ukraine's
throat.
"... Further oil price increases could trigger a slowdown in domestic or global economic growth, which could further complicate the U.S.' Iran policy and Trump's domestic political situation. ..."
Further oil price increases could trigger a slowdown in domestic or global economic
growth, which could further complicate the U.S.' Iran policy and Trump's domestic political
situation. September 12th, 2018
Despite the Trump administration's "
maximum pressure " campaign targeting the Iranian economy, Iran's crude oil and oil product
revenues
jumped a surprising 60 percent from March 21 to July 23. In addition, figures provided by
Iran's Central Bank show that Iran's revenues from oil sales soared by 84.2 percent over that
same period, setting a new record.
The increased revenues seem to have resulted from a jump in oil prices this year as well as
Iran's high oil export volume during part of that period. Notably, the increased revenues were
reported despite the United States' announcement in May that it
would sanction those purchasing Iranian oil starting in early November, with the ultimate
goal of reducing Iranian oil sales to zero in order to place pressure on the Iranian
government.
The U.S.' efforts have had some noticeable effects on Iranian oil exports, as the country's
exports for the month of August were
significantly lower than those of July. However, the drop has only seen exports fall to
near March 2016 levels , when the U.S. was not pursuing a sanctions policy against Iran and
the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was
in effect.
Further dashing U.S. hopes of crushing Iranian oil exports have been recent announcements
from Iran's top two customers,
China and
India , that they would continue to import Iranian crude despite the looming threat of U.S.
sanctions. India, along with some other countries, has sought " waivers
" from Washington that would allow them to continue to import Iranian oil and avoid retaliation
from the U.S. for a certain period of time.
In addition, the European Union, which had previously joined the U.S. in targeting Iranian
oil exports in 2012, has shown its unwillingness to follow Washington's lead this time around,
openly
vowing to rebel against the U.S. sanctions regimen and increasing the likelihood that
Europe will continue to buy some Iranian oil despite U.S. threats.
Risks for U.S. and
global economies
Another indication that efforts to curb Iranian oil exports are backfiring for the Trump
administration is
the jump in oil prices that has resulted from concerns about the U.S. sanctions on Iran's
oil exports. The increase in oil prices is likely to be felt domestically in the U.S., the
world's largest consumer of oil, potentially posing a political risk to Trump and his fellow
Republicans ahead of the November 6 midterm elections. In addition, further oil price increases
could trigger a slowdown in domestic or global economic growth, which could further complicate
the U.S.' Iran policy and Trump's domestic political situation.
Such concerns have prompted
U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry to meet his Saudi and Russian counterparts in an effort to
convince those two countries to keep oil output high in order to offset a reduction in future
Iranian oil exports. While Saudi Arabia
has already stated it would increase output, Russia is unlikely to comply, given its
relationship with Iran and Washington's threat to impose new sanctions on Moscow. The U.S.,
Saudi Arabia and Russia
are currently the world's three largest oil producers, accounting for about a third of
global crude oil output.
While the Trump administration may have assumed that U.S. oil producers – and the U.S.
economy in general -- would benefit from the elimination of Iranian oil exports, the growing
rejection of the impending U.S. sanctions by other countries shows that these nations are
unwilling
to pay for more expensive American oil or even Saudi oil,
preferring less expensive Iranian oil despite potential future consequences. Furthermore,
efforts to increase U.S. crude production
have fallen short of government expectations, further complicating the U.S.' efforts to
offset an increase in oil prices resulting from Iranian oil sanctions.
Whitney Webb is a staff writer for MintPress News and a contributor to Ben Swann's Truth
in Media. Her work has appeared on Global Research, the Ron Paul Institute and 21st Century
Wire, among others. She has also made radio and TV appearances on RT and Sputnik. She currently
lives with her family in southern Chile.
Below is a New Silk Strategies translation from the Russian site teknoblog.ru .
It is clear from Trump's enthusiastic sales talk to the Polish authorities on July 6, 2017
(as we reported here
) that the centrepiece of Trump's economic policy is LNG exports. The US has no major economic
projects even remotely comparable to China's One Belt One Road initiative, the biggest
infrastructure project in history. But worse, all of the energy companies involved in fracking
are
running in the red with no prospects of ever making profits unless oil prices skyrocket to
new highs and stay there. The wells are short-lived and by the time they are producing
steadily, they are already drying up, necessitating new drilling and more borrowing. Worse,
that big deal with China to sujpply a major portion of their gas needs may be about to fizzle,
thanks to Trump's tough guy act.
In 2016, Henry Kissinger
floated the idea of using Russia to oppose China and shared the idea with an enthusiastic
Donald Trump. Kissinger had entertained this idea in the 1970s as Nixon's national security
adviser. The problem is, the whole notion of granting China "most-favoured nation" status, ie,
doing essentially free trade with it, was based on just the opposite mission of opposing
Russia using China as a club, and both ideas have their die-hard supporters
in Washington. Keen observers know neither approach will succeed. In fact, recently the
National Interest reported that China and Russia are planning joint military drills.
Basra demonstrators, enraged over polluted water and years of extreme neglect, engage in arson to make their point September
9, 2018 12:48 AM (UTC+8) Basra protesters set the Iranian consulate ablaze on Friday night, the latest manifestation of outrage against
influential actors in Basra city, which should be one of the richest in the country with its massive oil reserves and port, but which
has become one of the most decrepit.
More than 18,000 Basra residents have been poisoned by tap water since the start of the month, according to the Basra province
health directorate. Hospitals, inundated with patients, have collapsed under the pressure.
Basra, like neighboring Iran, is majority Shiite. But in recent years, residents have grown hostile toward Tehran over its dominance
of Iraqi affairs, its support for political parties notorious for public waste and its backing of armed factions that enforce themselves
as morality police.
The torching of the Iranian consulate came just 24 hours after the protesters -- ignoring a government curfew -- set fire to the
offices of powerful Shiite political parties and Iran-backed militias that formed the backbone of the paramilitary Popular Mobilization
Units.
The demonstrators did not spare the local government headquarters and provincial council, setting those ablaze as well.
Basra has been roiled by unrest since July, and the latest round of revolt was met with tear gas and live fire. The first week
of September saw nine demonstrators killed and 93 wounded, according to the UN.
The deadly force has only inflamed the movement. Over the past two nights, security evaporated from the streets while the military
kept to the sidelines. Angry groups of youths roamed the city center, demanding revenge for those killed and for years of neglect.
The city appears out of control.
The unrest has put a spotlight on corruption in Iraq's economic capital, just as the Ministry of Oil seeks foreign investment
– including from China – to transform the country from an importer of oil products to an exporter.
Gulf port closed
Demonstrators on Thursday shut down the country's most important port, Umm Qasr.
Basra province is Iraq's only outlet to the sea, and Umm Qasr is just one of five commercial sea ports that serve as the country's
main gateway for basic necessities.
The costly shutdown prompted the minister of transportation to call for restraint via local radio stations.
"Iraq is losing millions," Kadhim Finjan pleaded over the airwaves. The port was eventually reopened Saturday before dawn.
Like the oil fields, these critical hubs have drawn protesters, who see the wealth they create being siphoned off by corruption.
An officer with the port authority, who spoke to Asia Times on condition of anonymity, said it was "impossible" for security
to control the port
The ports – strategically placed on the Persian Gulf – are shared between the political parties, a phenomenon that saps their
revenues and allows goods to enter without passing through customs.
An officer with the port authority, who spoke to Asia Times on condition of anonymity, said it was "impossible" for security to
control the port.
"The political parties treat the ports like their private property. Goods are exempted from controls and inspection, and the taxes
are reduced for traders dealing with the ruling parties," he said.
Before the ports earned the ire of the demonstrations, it was the oil sector.
Basra's 15 oil fields account for nearly 60% of the country's oil reserves. Revenues from the province generate approximately
$60 million daily, or 3.6 of Iraq's total 4.3 million barrels per day.
The government relies on the sector to finance its activities, but only a fraction of the national budget flows back to Basra.
The stark contrast between Basra's oil wealth and the miserable conditions of the population has prompted demonstrators this summer
to organize sit-ins blocking the gates to the oil fields.
In addition to the 15-hour power cuts and filthy drinking water, they are demanding jobs.
Foreign companies operating in Basra are required to hire locals for at least 50% of job posts, and up to 80% depending on the
contract. But those laws are often flouted.
The government has also allowed foreign companies to acquire vast swathes of agricultural lands to be used as oil fields north
of Basra, resulting in the bulldozing of orchards and date palm fields and increased unemployment.
"The oil extracted from our city lands is not beneficial to us," one demonstrator told Asia Times.
"It is better to stop its extraction than have it stolen," he said, blaming the government and foreign companies alike.
According to provincial council member Ahmed Abdel Hussein, half of Basra residents live in poverty.
The government says unemployment stands at about at 7.8%, but academic studies suggest a far higher rate. There are no official
statistics for the province.
Feared militia takeover
The government in Baghdad fears the deteriorating situation in Basra could disrupt oil production.
"The oil companies have been greatly affected by the protests," said Adel al-Thamari, an academic and investment analyst in Basra.
"The workers cannot access the fields because of the closure of roads or closing of entry gates," he told Asia Times, adding that
"the oil companies have reduced the number of foreign experts for fear of their lives and inability to afford high insurance costs."
The decline in production puts the financial burden on Baghdad. "Companies will raise the terms of credit, which means a great
loss for Iraq, which will have to pay compensation to the companies," he said.
Along with the world's major oil companies, hundreds of logistics and security support companies provide operational services
to the fields in Basra. As security deteriorates, they too will have to withdraw. "The withdrawal of these companies would mean production
stops," Thamari said.
The concerns of oil companies go beyond the protests to fears of a militia takeover.
"The army has taken the position of neutrality toward the demonstrations, and the fear is that the Popular Mobilization Units
will deploy. This would cause a further deterioration of security, because the militias have their own internal divisions and such
an escalation could neutralize the official security forces," Thamari said.
"... In return for the EU dropping billions of dollars in penalty fees, GazProm agreed to end limitations on the use of gas purchased by EU members, allow them to re-sell the gas ..."
"... About the Author ..."
"... Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the 'New Cold War ..."
"... Russia's Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet Communist Regime, 1985-2000 ..."
"... Russia's Islamic Threat ..."
"... The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global Jihadism in Russia's North Caucasus and Beyond ..."
Russia has advanced forward in something of a tactical and potential strategic victory in
the Russo-Western gas war. This is a three-party war, with the US, EU, and Russia each
promoting separate interests. It is one sphere where a united West has failed to 'isolate
Russia.' The US seeks move in on the European energy market with LNG supplies and replace
Russian pipeline-delivered natural gas supplies to Europe. Washington is using the risks of
dependence on Russian gas and Russia's 'bad behavior' as leverage in attempting to convince
Europeans to reject Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Russia is said to be unreliable and prone
to shut off gas supplies to Europe.
Due to past Russian-Ukrainian gas crises, the Ukrainian crisis, and general Russian-Western
tensions, Europe has decided on a gas diversification policy in which each EU member should
have at least three sources of natural gas supply. One additional option that could facilitate
this diversification policy is US liquified natural gas (LNG), but the US is still unable to
supply enough LNG to offset Russian gas supplies that might be rejected by Europe. In the
process, Washington is looking less like a 'team West' player and more like a solely
self-interested power maximizer in European eyes and therefore no more reliable than Moscow. As
a result, Europeans are deciding to stick with the Russians while finding new options in the
east, such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. This is creating competition if not tensions in present
and potential gas transit countries in southeastern and eastern Europe, for example.
The Battle Over Re-Sale: No Victors
One recent battle was largely inconclusive, but if a victor has to be designated it may be
Moscow. In May, the European Commssion concluded a settlement with Russia's Gazprom in May
ending a seven-year anti-trust dispute. In return for the EU dropping billions of dollars in
penalty fees, GazProm agreed to end limitations on the use of gas purchased by EU members,
allow them to re-sell the gas. Some EU members, such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia have re-sold or wanted to re-sell gas. Moscow
frowned, for example, on Slovakia's resale of natural gas to Ukraine at cheaper prices than
Moscow sought to charge Kiev.
The agreement will also restrict Moscow's ability to charge
different countries different prices. So EU members in central and eastern Europe can get a
price close to that paid by Germany and appeal to an arbitration court in case of a dispute.
The agreement guarantees Russia's presence on the European gas market at a time when the
latter's reliance on the former has peaked.
The Northern Front: Nord Stream 2
At the same time, the battle over Russia' Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline has heated up.
When it comes on line in 2019, the 759-mile pipeline will carry GazProm natural gas along the
bed of the Baltic Sea to Germany and double the supply Nord Stream pipeline's current annual
capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm). The Trump administration has threatened yet more
sanctions on third-party companies, this time with those that work on the pipeline. The US
sanctions threat is an attempt to promote American LNG interests as well as to protect
Ukrainian interests, though it contradicts the view that Ukraine should eschew its dependence
on Russian gas.
US officials have been hammering home to Europeans the 'Russian threat' in tandem with the
risk of reliance on Russian gas may pose, which will increase with Nord tream 2, but to no
avail. Public opinion is not working in the US favor, with Germans trusting Moscow more than
Washington, despite all the crimes laid at the Kremlin's door by the West. A recent ZDF
Television opinion survey found that only 14 percent of Germans regard the U.S. as a reliable
partner, while 36 percent view Russia as reliable (
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/trump-s-global-disruption-pushes-merkel-closer-to-putin-s-orbit
). Thus, notwithstanding Ukraine, Syria and alleged chemical attacks, Russiagate, and the
Skrypals, GazProm's supplies to Europe have risen to hold nearly 40 percent of its gas market,
growing last year by 8.1 percent last year to a record level of 193.9 billion cubic metres
(bcm).
Nevertheless, with the EU decision, the U.S., Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and others have
stepped up their pressure on Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and other western Eureopean EU
members to abandon the Nord Stream 2 project. Germans and other western Europeans are unlikely
to give up the short-term gain of energy security for the US LNG given the higher price and
unproven nature of Washington's numerous allegations against the Kremlin. German officials say
they still have no proof from 10 Downing on Russia's culpability for the Skrypal poisoning so
loudly trumpeted by British PM Theresa May.
One motivation for the Russians in building Nord Stream 2 is to obviate the need to
transport gas through Ukraine, which will hurt Ukraine's own energy supply – given
Ukrainian skimming -- and overall economy beyond the present non-sale of Russian gas to
Ukraine. Another Russian motivation is to avert the unreliable Ukrainians, who have failed to
make payments according to contract in the past causing Russian gas cutoffs to Ukraine and thus
Europe with the resulting crises blamed solely on Moscow. The Trump sanctions threat has put
Germany and the other Nord Stream 2 supporting countries between a rock and a hard place,
between Russia and the US. Therefore, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while supporting Nord
Stream 2, has called for guarantees from Russia that Ukraine will remain a gas transit country.
Ukraine's current contract with Russia ends in 2019 at the very time Nord Stream 2 is to go on
line and the EU has urged re-starting EU-mediated negotiatons now in order to avoid another gas
crisis. Putin agreed to do this at his meeting with Germany's merkel in late May. Nord Stream 2
significantly strengthens Putin's hand in any such talks.
The Southern Front: Turkish Stream, SGC and the Azeri and Bulgarian Factors
Russia is strengtheining its position on the European gas war's southern front by building
the Turkish Stream (TS) gas pipeline to Europe. TS consists of a sea and a land leg. The former
runs under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and is built, with Russo-Turkish talks on the
land leg ongoing.
Russia's Turkish Stream is being challenged by the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) backed by
Western powers, including the EU (along with Turkey and Azerbaijan), which sees the SGC as a
means of diversifying from dependence on Russia. Not just Turkey, but Azerbaijan is emerging as
a major player on the EU gas market, with a shift in policy accenting gas supplies to Europe as
well as oil supplies as in the past. The SGC consists of three components: an expanded South
Caucasus Pipeline and the to be constructed Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and
Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). TANAP is 51 percent Azerbaijani owned, 37 percent Turkish, and
12 percent belonging to British Petroleum. The SGC will carry Azerbaijani gas through Turkey to
Europe and will be able to supply up to one-third of the gas consumed by Bulgaria, Greece and
Italy ( https://en.trend.az/business/energy/2910573.html
). However, the source of the gas supplying the pipeline demonstrates the limits of Western
attempts to isolate Russia (and Iran). Azerbaijan's Shah-Deniz gas field is co-owned by British
Petroleum (29 percent), Turkey's Turkish Petroleum (19 percent), Azerbaijan's SOCAR (17
percent), Malaysia's Petronas (15 percent), Russia's LukOil (10 percent), and Iran's NICO (10
percent). Moreover, Russia's LukOil is negotiating with SOCAR a stake in Azerbaijan's
second-largest gas field, Umid-Babek, which also includes Britain's Nobel Upstream (
https://newsbase.com/topstories/lukoil-talks-join-umid-babek-project
).
Again the Ukrainian issue is part of the picture here, as a good portion of GasProm supplies
to Bulgaria go through Ukraine. Turkish Stream can replace at least some of that supply should
Moscow decide to entirely avert Ukraine's pipeline system. It is of interest that no one in the
West has offered to include in any of these projects or attempted to fashion a pipeline or
pipeline extension that could link up with the Ukrainian network.
During Bulgarian President Rumen Radev's late may visit to Moscow, Putin reported to Radev
that during his meetings with Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan, the latter said he would
pose no oppsotion to extending the Turkish Stream gas pipeline to Bulgaria. In response, Radev
seemed to suggest making Bulgaria a "a gas redistribution center, a hub" for the Turkish
Stream's supplies further into Europe ( http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57608
).
Moreover, one gets the impression that Bulgaria is wary more about its dependence on Turkey
and Ankara's new offensive energy policy in Europe than on Russia and might help Moscow detour
Ukraine.
In 2015, Erdogan declared a major policy initiative of making Turkey a, if not
the major energy transit hub for supplies heading from the east to Europe.
Russia's
annexation of Crimea could help Russia in its talks both with Erdogan over the Turkish Stream
and pose the threat of undermining the SGC. It may also help Putin deal with Merkel, Kiev and
the EU over the Ukraine pipeline system's future role. Bulgarian President Radev also said in
Moscow that Sofia supports building a direct gas pipeline under the Black Sea to bring Russian
gas to Bulgaria ( https://echo.msk.ru/news/2206394-echo.html ).
The Bulgarian option could be used by Putin to threaten Erdogan with reducing the Turkish
Stream's supplies or abandoning it altogether in favor of a Black Sea Russian-Bulgarian Stream
and to reduce Russia's dependence on Ukraine as well.
Implications
Thus, EU energy diversification policies are transforming Turkey, Azerbaijan and perhaps
even Bulgaria into key players on the southern gas transit front, while Ukraine falters to
Germany, and eastern Europe to Western Europe on the northern front.
Tensions between Ankara
and Sofia on these grounds cannot be excluded, and they could draw in Turkey's semi-ally
Azerbaijan. US, EU, Russian and Ukrainian energy diplomacy is likely not only to be focused on
each other, therefore, but also on Ankara, Baku, and Sofia over the next year.
Unless, the US
can rapidly reduce the cost of extracting and shipping LNG to Europe, it is unlikely to be able
to become a major alternative to these players, and Russia will continue to dominate the
European gas market, with a balance of competition and cooperation with Azerbaijan.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
About the Author – Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., Expert Analyst at Corr
Analytics, http://www.canalyt.com and a
Senior Researcher at the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group,
San Jose, California, www.cetisresearch.org .
Dr. Hahn is the author of Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the 'New Cold
War (McFarland Publishers, 2017) and three previously and well-received books:
Russia's Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet
Communist Regime, 1985-2000 (Transaction Publishers, 2002); Russia's Islamic
Threat (Yale University Press, 2007); and The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global
Jihadism in Russia's North Caucasus and Beyond (McFarland Publishers, 2014). He has
published numerous think tank reports, academic articles, analyses, and commentaries in both
English and Russian language media and has served as a consultant and provided expert testimony
to the U.S. government.
Dr. Hahn also has taught at Boston, American, Stanford, San Jose State, and San Francisco
State Universities and as a Fulbright Scholar at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia. He
has been a senior associate and visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies and the Kennan Institute in Washington DC as well as the Hoover Institution at Stanford
University.
"... If the reports are true, the situation is an ironic one for Europe: while trying to reduce its dependence on Russian gas it is inadvertently increasing it and is even paying more for it than it would if it bought the extra loads directly from Gazprom. ..."
The documents suggest that a company with US ownership is buying Russian
gas from petrochemical giant Sibur, and then selling it -- at a profit, of course -- to the
European Union, which is in a rush to build as many LNG terminals as it can in a bid to reduce
its dependence on Russian gas.
If the reports are true, the situation is an ironic one for Europe: while trying to reduce
its dependence on Russian gas it is inadvertently increasing it and is even paying more for it
than it would if it bought the extra loads directly from Gazprom.
One might wonder how a U.S. company is able to do business with a Russian one. It's simple:
Wilbur Ross himself said earlier this week that
Sibur is not a subject to sanctions, so for Navigator Holdings and the petrochemical giant,
everything is business as usual.
According to Balmasov, while the number of voyages via the Northern Sea Route so far
this year has been roughly the same as last year, the main difference compared to 2017 is LNG
traffic out of the port of Sabetta, the port that Russia's gas producer Novatek uses to ship
the Yamal LNG cargoes to Europe and to Asia.
Arctic Logistics data compiled by Bloomberg shows that by early July, a total of 34
tankers made the voyage from Sabetta to Europe, and one to the east. Since early July,
another two LNG tankers have shipped the fuel to Asia
In mid-July, Novatek said that it had shipped its first LNG cargoes from Yamal LNG to
China via the Northern Sea Route, with the voyage from Sabetta completed in 19 days, compared
to 35 days for the traditional eastern route via the Suez Canal and the Strait of
Malacca
####
Tut tut! Cannot have LNG going via Russia's northern passage (fnar! fnar!).
Vis ship pollution, why simply hold LNG carriers up to much higher environmental
standards? After all most of them are much newer and are specialist vessels. Or are they
already? Indeed they are, the use of duel-fuel engines that can make use of boil-off:
As of 2005, a total of 203 vessels had been built, of which 193 were still in service.
At the end of 2016, the global LNG shipping fleet consisted of 439 vessels.[3] In 2017, an
estimated 170 vessels are in use at any one time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LNG_carrier#Reliquefaction_and_boil-off
According to WGI, on a typical voyage an estimated 0.1–0.25% of the cargo converts to
gas each day, depending on the efficiency of the insulation and the roughness of the
voyage.[16] In a typical 20-day voyage, anywhere from 2–6% of the total volume of LNG
originally loaded may be lost.[16]
Normally an LNG tanker is powered by steam turbines with boilers. These boilers are
dual fuel and can run on either methane or oil or a combination of both. ..
I love how an eventuality we were all raised to dread – the melting of the polar
ice caps – is now spun as a net positive. Make hay while the sun shines! When life
hands you lemons, make lemonade! Pick your metaphor. We are destroying the planet we live on,
inch by irrecoverable inch, but the merchants of Stay-Positive maintain it is
AWESOME.
I don't know if you heard – probably not, since it was never much of an
international story – but the Canadian Federal Court of Appeals, in a surprise
decision, overturned the government's commitment to the Trans-Mountain pipeline.
Alberta's Rachel Notley reportedly bent spoons with her teeth, since she had just
jubilantly reported that the court challenge by the city of Burnaby (British Columbia) was
defeated. "To date, Alberta has won every case brought against Trans Mountain. Your Alberta
government will not back down until this pipeline is built and the national interest is
secured", she crowed on Twitter; the modern equivalent of a legislature, I guess, since all
politicians who are anybody turn first to Twitter to get their message out.
That one, of course, was "a victory for all Canadians". Except for British Columbia's
crybabies, of course, who did not want to play host to Alberta's tanker armada, considering
Alberta has no seacoast. So you would think she would quietly accept this later decision by
the legal system she purports to revere. Not a bit of it. She immediately withdrew Alberta
from the national climate-change plan, and restarted her rhetoric about cutting off BC's gas
supply.
Get it? When the court rules in Alberta's favour, it is just – the solemn power
of the law makes you want to weep with awe. When it rules against Alberta, it is a clown show
of unevolved primates. That's modern politics.
All this theatre when the completion of the pipeline is inevitable – the very
day, almost to the hour that the Court of Appeals rendered its decision, the shareholders of
Kinder-Morgan Canada voted 99% in favour of selling the pipeline to the government of Canada.
So now the government owns it, and although it may be delayed a couple of years, it's down
but not out. Now the government has to re-do its consultations with all the native bands,
this time selling the impression that it is actually listening and the consultative process
is real, and it has to conduct a review of the environmental impact of increased tanker
traffic (which it formerly declaimed as outside its purview). I'd say if there is agreement
on changing some routes and perhaps permissible speed until well offshore, it will almost
certainly pass next time.
@82 There is some logic to the Iranians fielding a jet fighter of any sort, even if it is
based on a relic of the 1970s.
An Israeli campaign against Iranian nuclear sites is going to involve F-15 and F-16 jets
loaded to the gills with big-arse bombs. Those will be unable to dogfight even a relic like
an F-5 unless they drop that ordinance.
If that is all those Iranians do that then they will have achieved their purpose.
Alternatively, the Israelis could use fighter escorts but then you have to consider that
each escort represents one less bomb-laden F-16 (or, put another way, twice as many
sorties).
Simply put: Absent any Iranian jet fighters then the Israelis can commit ALL of their jets
to the task of bombing Iranian targets, and do so from the very beginning. But once Iranian
fighters are in the mix then the job becomes much harder: the Israelis either have to take
out those jets first before committing to a bombing campaign, or they have to commit half
their force to escort duties from the very start.
Sure, SU-35s would be much better, but an F-5 is still way better than nothing.
You seem ignorant about economic issues. For example, when it comes to natural gas market,
European countries are not in the same boat. Britain and Spain import virtually no gas from
Russia. These countries built lots LNG terminals and import from Qatar.
Germany, Italy and France have a well-diversified supply from multiple sources. The
countries that are truly dependent on Russia are in ex-communist Eastern Europe. They still
rely on a network of pipelines built by USSR, and would go into energy crisis if Russia
suddenly ended supply.
There is no Chinese FDI in Belarus, and in Russia it accounts for 1% of the total FDI.
Nobody is learning Chinese in Russia or Belarus. I don't know what you're smoking.
Your comment implies that people should continue to bang their heads against a wall.
In fact, no one has said NOT to participate in politics. To be effective, it's important
to understand the reality of politics and the power structure.
Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing
business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while
average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.
The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination
...
That's why candidates like Ron Paul on the Republican side and Denis Kucinich on the
Democratic side never stood a chance. They made way too much sense; they dared speak truth to
power so they had to be marginalized by their respective parties so no one would take them
seriously. They were literally swallowed up by the duopoly and relegated to
quasi-obscurity.
I would say 'contra-Russia'. Trump is just the current vessel.
Let us not forget, that under the mighty and loved O-bomber, a group of US Senators back
in 2014 made Bulgaria drop South Stream with god knows what threats, whereas Brussels had
previously failed (intentionally?) to do so. Guess who was the lead Senator?
At this time there is a request from the European Commission, after which we've suspended
the current works, I ordered it," Oresharski told journalists after meeting with John McCain,
Chris Murphy and Ron Johnson during their visit to Bulgaria on Sunday. "Further proceedings
will be decided after additional consultations with Brussels."
McCain, commenting on the situation, said that "Bulgaria should solve the South Stream
problems in collaboration with European colleagues," adding that in the current situation
they would want "less Russian involvement" in the project.
"America has decided that it wants to put itself in a position where it excludes anybody
it doesn't like from countries where it thinks it might have an interest, and there is no
economic rationality in this at all. Europeans are very pragmatic, they are looking for cheap
energy resources – clean energy resources, and Russia can supply that. But the thing
with the South Stream is that it doesn't fit with the politics of the situation," Ben Aris,
editor of Business New Europe told RT .
####
See, nothing has changed. At least it looks like U-rope has learned its lesson. Not so the
US. Russia hatin' is a too good 'dead cat on the table' to give up.
Underneath everyone's observations/comments lurks the basic question: Why?
Enter the Big Picture provided yesterday by Pepe Escobar who also links to and cites the
controversial Alastair Crooke ideological essay I linked to last week. Part of the Big
Picture is the #1 policy goal of the Outlaw US Empire--Full Spectrum Dominance of the
Planet--and its recently published National Defense
Strategy(NDS) related to that goal:
"The central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term,
strategic competition by what the National Security Strategy classifies as revisionist
powers. It is increasingly clear that China and Russia want to shape a world consistent with
their authoritarian model -- gaining veto authority over other nations' economic, diplomatic,
and security decisions."
Do please note the combination of prevarication with ideology in the above as it's
reflective of the point Crooke tried to make in his piece. A strategy based upon lies to
oneself is a sure recipe for defeat as you're deceiving yourself which violates the first law
of war as pronounced by so many: "All war is based on deception." But then given the
political-economic nature of the USA's Keynesian Militarism, perhaps this deception is aimed
domestically so as to transfer even more tax dollars upwards to the 1%. So, actions must be
closely observed even more than usual.
During the election campaign, it was speculated that Trump's desire to ease tensions with
Russia was a last-ditch gambit suggested by Kissinger to split the Chinese-Russian alliance.
So, Russiagate served to defeat that gambit while pushing China and Russia even closer
together. With the Syrian regime change ploy rapidly being defeated and Ukraine going
nowhere, Deep State planners were left without an oar, so the reversion to Cold War
Russophobia with an occasional bout of Sinophobia thrown in for good measure--neither of
which is any sort of strategy.
Another quote from the NDS:
"Today, we are emerging from a period of strategic atrophy, aware that our competitive
military
advantage has been eroding."
That was realized before Putin's display of highly advanced Russian weaponry, which was
announced in March, the NDS was released in January. What's amazing is "strategic atrophy"
with budgets beyond $600 billion must mean a massive portion's being wasted--delivered to the
1%--such that it's corruption that's caused the erosion of "our competitive advantage." I'd
opine much of the chaos we see being played-up is done to obscure interpretations like mine
so that even more $$$ can be wasted, although lip service is given to improvements.
So, who/what's really in charge? Big Money rules as it has since the Civil War within the
USA and much earlier when we include London and Amsterdam. Big Money's angry because it's
locked out of BRI, BRICS, EAEU, and developing nations are mostly on to IMF's and World
Bank's disingenuous "development" plans because it abhors the notion that it's not Top Dog.
So, the dollar got weaponized and the Trade and Financial War--the Hybrid Third World
War--was finally begun in earnest after earlier fits and starts. Yet it appears that the
effort will fail since Big Money is finding itself trapped inside a web of its own making
that's based on a fiat currency supported by Junk Economics.
It is reported that the German company and partner in Nord Stream II, Uniper, may pull out
of the project due to the risk of US sanctions (previously it said Uniper will pull
out sic see link.).* In related news, construction has been started in German waters.
Still silence from Denmark as to whether they will block it or not.
If I were Moscow, I would announce that the pipeline's route will avoid Danish waters and
sit back to see the reaction. Why? Coz you can bet that some will claim it is
punishment/bribe/threat/anti-competitive to Denmark, to whit, Russia can simply reply that
Denmark has XXX days to provide the permits before it is no longer economically feasible for
the route to go through its waters.
What p* me off about the reported 'threat from NSII' and even in articles like the one
above that point out it is in Europe's interest, none of them mention the preceding sabotage
of South Stream II under the mighty Obama and the impact from that led directly to
Nord Stream II.
At this time there is a request from the European Commission, after which we've
suspended the current works, I ordered it," Oresharski told journalists after meeting with
John McCain, Chris Murphy and Ron Johnson during their visit to Bulgaria on Sunday. "Further
proceedings will be decided after additional consultations with Brussels."
McCain, commenting on the situation, said that "Bulgaria should solve the South Stream
problems in collaboration with European colleagues," adding that in the current situation
they would want "less Russian involvement" in the project.
"America has decided that it wants to put itself in a position where it excludes
anybody it doesn't like from countries where it thinks it might have an interest, and there
is no economic rationality in this at all. Europeans are very pragmatic, they are looking for
cheap energy resources – clean energy resources, and Russia can supply that. But the
thing with the South Stream is that it doesn't fit with the politics of the situation," Ben
Aris, editor of Business New Europe told RT .
####
Yes kids. Warmonger McCain was at the forefront of getting it killed after interference
from Brussels failed to shift the asshole Borissov's government. So when a European asks
"What has John McCain done for us? , he's already f*ed you over for the benefit of the US
and U-ropean poodle Krazy K**t Klan.
And let's remember what a hard lesson Bulgaria learned from its leap of faith into
Brussels' arms.
On May 30, Bulgarian PM Boyko Borisov met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During
the joint press conference, Borisov apologized to Putin for the failure of South Stream and
for his responsibility in causing the deterioration of relations between the two countries.
Borisov said: "We know about the difficult relations in the past and are grateful to our
colleagues for not being vindictive and the fact that Russian-Bulgarian relations do not
depend on the extent of guilt of some politicians
"I would like to thank President Putin for his attitude once again. I am to blame for
creating certain tensions When it came to the worst and I wanted to talk, my calls were
always answered. And I really accept part of the guilt for those developments."
Putin then added that he regrets that the South Stream project has not been
implemented, since it would have "greatly benefited" Bulgaria.
In response, Borisov blamed the EU of having imposed Bulgaria diktats that other
countries do not respect anyway. Borisov said: "We are the most loyal and the most
disciplined country in the European Union. This is the reason why all the pipelines bypassed
our territory. We hope that today we have redressed an injustice.
Bulgaria stepped up when the European Commission called and got absolutely fuck-all in the
way of thanks or compensation – to the contrary, the decision cost Bulgaria a great
deal of money. Let that be a lesson to other EU countries; Brussels is big on ideas, but it
does not have your back and if your stepping-up causes your country grief and it turns out
you made a terrible mistake, and want to talk about it
There is absolutely nobody else to blame but Borissov himself, a third rate playa .
The position of neither Brussels nor Washington was a surprise at all. They are very well
known quantities. Big surprise. Not.
Borissov vacillated and played the same failed and weak gambit we have seen for years in
the Ukraine. That he is still around as the biggest fish in the local fish shop is that he is
the biggest spineless shit that floats to the surface while the opposition is little more
than useless. That is repeated elsewhere in the neighborhood to various degrees and where it
is not, it's a choice between two sides of the same gangster/clan coin. To misquote Douglas
Adams, So long, and thanks for none of the fish.
Well, I don't think a decision has been made yet. But the consortium has 'applied to
Denmark for an alternate route' – which, since the alternate route would not go through
Danish territorial waters, implies Denmark does not really have any say over it, and is
essentially a challenge to Denmark to either veto the original route on security grounds (you
never know, Putin might hide submarines in it, or Novichok or something) or get on with it.
But Denmark is presented with more or less the Bulgarian Alternative: do Washington's bidding
and get a pat on the head, or defy it and get transit fees.
All the news on the subject that I saw announced that the consortium is 'exploring' an
alternate route. It seems they are still hopeful the original route will be cleared, but are
getting it on the table that denying it will not stop the project.
But of course western 'analysts' continue to squeal that Putin and the Kremlin are using
the Nord Stream II pipeline to 'invade Europe'. Curiously, the same people who once smirked
scornfully that Nord Stream II was not needed because the current pipeline is only running at
half-capacity now claim "even with Nord Stream 2 on line Russia would still need to send
substantial amounts of gas through Ukraine – at least until the upcoming TurkStream
pipeline is also finished." Whoa – wut? Even both legs of Nord Stream running at full
capacity will not be enough? You don't say.
Once again, nobody is forcing Europe to take more Russian gas than it needs, although the
draw-down of domestic supplies suggest it will need more all the time unless 'green energy'
becomes more commercially viable and reliable. Certain players want Europe's gas to go
through Ukraine for two reasons – one, Ukraine badly needs the money from transit fees
to prop up its calamitous economy. Two, it is a ready tickle-trunk of conflict whenever the
west wants to make problems for Russia; presto! Ukraine is in a new fight with Russia over
gas prices, and Europe is trembling with fear that its gas supplies will be shut off.
Here, you numpties – let me solve the problem for you. Soon there is going to be a
perfectly good (according to Ukraine and the west) pipeline network idling without much to
do. Why not let all those competitors Europe is always gibbering about use Ukraine's pipeline
network to send their gas to Europe? They could have the whole thing all to
themselves, completely cutting Gazprom out of Ukraine! What a victory that would be! And they
could pay Ukraine transit fees, saving the day there and bringing enormous comfort to
Ukrainian economists! It's win/win!
See,
this is why I enjoy Leonid Bershidsky's writing . Despite his idealistic prattling that
Russia is actually guilty of all the things America says it is – his ultimate loyalty
is still to his adopted homeland, the land of milk and honey – he remains essentially a
realist. And his take on the economic dynamics is brutally realistic; the United States
cannot 'bring the Russian economy to its knees'. Once again, America's ridiculously-high
opinion of itself and its power fail to take account of consequences.
Oh, it could, I suppose, in a way. A way that would see the world's largest economy
– arguably, and certainly in its last days if it is actually still the world's largest
economy – wreck the global economy and its own trade relationship with the world in
order to damage Russia. Is it willing to go that far? You just never know, as decades of
feeding itself exceptionalism have addled its thinking.
Bershidsky points out – correctly, I think – that Russia has held off on
punishing American companies in Russia just as the USA has not dared to sanction the energy
industry in Russia. Neither wants to take that step, although one will certainly provoke the
other.
In fact, it occurs to me that if Russia were really as malignant and evil as Washington
pretends it is, Russia would be first to take that step, booting American companies out of
Russia, perhaps giving them 72 hours to clear out their desks and get out. What would happen
then? America would be bound to drop the sanctions hammer on oil and gas. And what would
happen then? Europe would say, it's been a lovely party, but I must be going. I give that an
8 of 10 chance of happening, and solely because of the stupid actions heretofore by the Trump
government. Had America been reasonable, it would have stood a chance of carrying Europe with
it to a war against Russia. But Trump and his blowhard bullying have hardened European
resolve against the USA.
"... The US is run by a somewhat unstable president being advised by nuts like Bolton whose main focus is following Israeli diktats, therefore i would not expect them to be looking out for US interests. ..."
The US is prepared to use sanctions to drive Iranian oil exports down to zero, the US
national security adviser, John Bolton, has said.
"Regime change in Iran is not American policy, but what we want is massive change in the
regime's behaviour," Bolton said on a visit to Israel, as he claimed current sanctions had been
more effective than predicted.
Donald Trump took the US out of Iran's nuclear deal with the west in May and is imposing
escalating sanctions, both to force Iran to renegotiate the deal and to end Tehran's perceived
interference in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
Complete removal of Iranian oil from world markets would cut oil supply by more than 4%
probably forcing up prices in the absence of any new supplies.
SNIP
Fuller US sanctions, including actions against countries that trade in Iranian oil are due to
come into force on 5 November, 180 days after the initial Trump announcement to withdraw.
The measures against Iranian oil importers, and banks that continue to trade with the Central
Bank of Iran, will ratchet the pressure to a higher level.
Pompeo has set up an Iran Action group inside the US State Department to coordinate US leverage
on companies and countries that cannot show that their trade, including in oil, has fallen
significantly by November.
Measures may also be taken against firms that insure ships carrying Iranian crude.
It is expected some of the major Iranian oil importers, such as Russia, China and Turkey, will
either ignore the threat of US sanctions, or, possibly in the case of Iraq, Japan and South
Korea, seek exemptions.
China takes a quarter of all Iran's oil exports, and with Chinese banks little exposed to the
US it can avoid the impact of Trump's sanctions.REPLY
I wonder if China could just take all of Iran's oil? I imagine at the right price they
would be happy to do so. China imports about 8 Mb/d, Iran exports about 2.5 Mb/d of oil,
seems possible.
Also note that if this does occur and there is no drop in Iranian output, the impact of
the Iranian sanctions on the World Oil market will be effectively zero.
I wonder what the capacity is of the Chinese and Iranian oil tanker fleet is? If nobody
else will buy it or ship it then the tanker fleet will have to be owned/insured by either
Iran or China.
I'm interested in knowing if Chinese oil tankers are even capable of hauling 2.5 million
barrels a day home from Iran. It seems doubtful that anybody else will be doing it for them.
I can't find much info on the size of the Chinese owned tanker fleet and it's
capabilities.
While US forces have been known to seize North Korean oil tankers hauling Libyan oil, I
find it doubtful that they will seize Chinese ones, for the reason you mentioned; China
punches back. Nothing spells the end of hegemony like getting your ass kicked.
One would assume its easy for the chinese to buy used oil tankers if they offer a bit over
current market prices. This is a very long term conflict, and they could buy tankers,
reregister them Chinese or Iranian or say Russian and start moving that oil.
The US is run by a somewhat unstable president being advised by nuts like Bolton whose
main focus is following Israeli diktats, therefore i would not expect them to be looking out
for US interests.
Saudi Aramco, apparently there was an audit of their reserves in preparation for the Aramco
IPO. It says Baker Hughes was involved???
2018-04-29 DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) – An audit of Saudi Aramco's oil reserves – an
essential part of the preparatory work for its planned initial public offering – has
found the state oil giant to have higher reserves than it previously reported, sources familiar
with the matter told Reuters.
Two sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the independent external audit has
found the proven oil reserves to be at least 270 billion barrels, which is slightly higher than
the 260.8 billion barrels the company reported in its 2016 annual review.
Dallas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton, and Gaffney, Cline and Associates, part of Baker
Hughes, are involved in the auditing, sources have said.
Did they pay for the audit? I've found that audits often show the results the customer is
looking for. Its not quite a science. More like a combination of fishing and editing.
"In no way should these results be construed as a true representation of the 'real' ."
au·dit
NOUN
an official inspection of an individual's or organization's accounts, typically by an
independent body.
VERB
conduct an official financial examination of (an individual's or organization's
accounts).
"companies must have their accounts audited"
They audited their books! I have no doubt that they found exactly what Saudi had on
their books. But that is likely to bear no resemblance to what field reserves actually are.
At any rate, it is entirely possible that Saudi could have doctored their books in
anticipation of the audit.
How would one go about actually checking the remaining reserves in Ghawar? Or any of the
other Saudi fields?
Dipstick??🤡 Seriously, they are both oil consulting companies. Hardly an audit.
Just high priced consultants. Key phrase is high priced. Nobody is going to jerk their
consulting license if they accept the high price, and give SA what they want. If SA runs out
of oil tomorrow, the worst that could happen is the companies say, whoops, missed that
one.
it is absolutely clear who is behind the food and medicine boycotts (empty supermarket
shelves), and the induced internal violence. It is a carbon copy of what the CIA under
Kissinger's command did in Chile in 1973 which led to the murder of the legitimate and
democratically elected President Allende and to the Pinochet military coup ; except,
Venezuela has 19 years of revolutionary experience, and built up some tough resistance.
To understand the context 'Venezuela', we may have to look at the country's history.
Before the fully democratically and internationally observed election of Hugo Chavez in
1998, Venezuela was governed for at least 100 years by dictators and violent despots which
were directed by and served only the United States. The country, extremely rich in natural
resources , was exploited by the US and Venezuelan oligarchs to the point that the population
of one of the richest Latin-American countries remained poor instead of improving its
standard of living according to country's natural riches. The people were literally enslaved
by Washington controlled regimes .
A first coup attempt by Comandante Hugo Chavez in 1992 was oppressed by the Government of
Carlos Andrés Pérez and Chavez was sent to prison along with his co-golpistas.
After two years, he was freed by the Government of Rafael Caldera.
During Peréz' first term in office (1974-1979) and his predecessors, Venezuela
attained a high economic growth based on almost exclusive oil exports . Though, hardly
anything of this growth stayed in the country and was distributed to the people. The
situation was pretty much the same as it is in today's Peru which before the 2008 crisis and
shortly thereafter had phenomenal growth rates – between 5% and 8% – of which 80%
went to 5% of the population oligarchs and foreign investors , and 20% was to be distributed
to 95% of the population – and that on a very uneven keel. The result was and is a
growing gap between rich and poor, increasing unemployment and delinquency.
Venezuela before Chavez lived practically on a monoculture economy based on petrol. There
was no effort towards economic diversification. To the contrary, diversification could
eventually help free Venezuela from the despot's fangs, as the US was the key recipient of
Venezuela's petrol and other riches. Influenced by the 1989 Washington Consensus,
Peréz made a drastic turn in his second mandate (1989-1993) towards neoliberal
reforms, i.e. privatization of public services, restructuring the little social safety
benefits laborers had achieved, and contracting debt by the IMF and the World Bank. He became
a model child of neoliberalism, to the detriment of Venezuelans. Resulting protests under
Peréz' successor, Rafael Caldera, became unmanageable. New elections were called and
Hugo Chavez won in a first round with more than 56%. Despite an ugly Washington inspired coup
attempt ("The Revolution will Not be Televised", 2003 documentary about the attempted 2002
coup), Hugo Chavez stayed in power until his untimely death 2013. Comandante Chavez and his
Government reached spectacular social achievements for his country.
Washington will not let go easily – or at all, to re-conquer Venezuela into the new
Monroe Doctrine, i.e. becoming re-integrated into Washington's backyard. Imagine this
oil-rich country, with the world's largest hydrocarbon reserves, on the doorsteps of the
United Sates' key refineries in Texas, just about 3 to 4 days away for a tanker from
Venezuela, as compared to 40 to 45 days from the Gulf, where the US currently gets about 60%
of its petrol imports. An enormous difference in costs and risks, i.e. each shipment has to
sail through the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz.
In addition, another socialist revolution as one of Washington's southern neighbor –
in addition to Cuba – is not convenient. Therefore, the US and her secret forces will
do everything to bring about regime change, by constant economic aggressions, blockades,
sanctions, boycotts of imports and their internal distribution – as well as outrights
military threats. The recent assassination attempt of President Maduro falls into the same
category. "
This "Trump vs Davos globalists" theme is unconvincing. Trump actions
are ruthless globalist actions, who wnat to preverse the US status of
superpower at all costs, even by abrogating important treaties.
He might be not a neoliberal globalist thouth -- he does not offere equl
seats on the table to vassals.
Trumpo statement that if Germany buy Russian gas it does not need NATO
is very shroud indeed.
Notable quotes:
"... Optics are important and this image captures what both parties wanted to convey. This meeting is the beginning of a shift in the relationship between Germany and Russia for the better. ..."
"... The obvious answer is necessity brought about by pressure being placed on both countries by Donald Trump through sanctions and tariffs and their shared interests represented by the Nordstream 2 pipeline. ..."
"... But, this meeting went far deeper than that, especially since Merkel's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas boldly proclaimed that Europe needs an alternative to the SWIFT system of international electronic payments so as to keep global trade alive while the U.S. further weaponizes the U.S. dollar ..."
"... Why would Merkel allow Maas to state this publicly and why was it picked up by that establishment stenographer The Financial Times ? ..."
"... If Trump's goal, as presented by much of the European press (as presented here by Gilbert Doctorow), is to regain complete subjugation of Europe to American dominance, then this seems counter-productive. ..."
"... SWIFT is the main lever on which much of the U.S.'s sanctions power rests. Because it is through SWIFT that transactions can be tracked, payments halted and fines imposed. That none of this is strictly legal is irrelevant in the game of power-politics. ..."
"... This undermines the EU's credibility at a foundational level. It shows them to be the toothless and, in EU President Donald Tusk's case, witless when faced with opposition to their rule that isn't supported by The Davos Crowd, which Trump most definitely doesn't represent. ..."
"... And I've talked about these in the past. His real goal is the destruction of that post WWII institutional order which in his mind bankrupts the U.S. treasury through massive trade deficits. ..."
"... I said back in June that Trump's leaving the JCPOA was all part of his strategy to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Germany. The Davos Crowd needs that deal to keep the dream of transferring the power of the world back to Europe from the U.S. via cheap, Iranian energy and keep the conflict between Israel/Saudi Arabia and Iran front and center to foment global chaos awhile keeping Russia from getting rich again. ..."
"... It needs that to support the narrative we need NATO to protect us from the inevitable Russian attack after we provoke them into it. This keeps the money flowing through the banks and lobbyists while draining the U.S. dry through the military/industrial complex. ..."
"... And despite relentless Russia bashing since before Trump was elected, the American people overwhelmingly want peace with Russia, not war. ..."
"... By driving a wedge between Germany and the US over NATO and attacking the foundations of the German economy Trump is ensuring the current rapprochement between Germany and Russia? ..."
Vladimir Putin's charm tour of Germany and Austria last weekend is a significant sign of
change to come.
To the U.S. and European press Putin is only a step or two away from Hitler reincarnated
(thanks chiefly to Bill Browder). It serves the purpose of maintaining the post WWII
institutional order.
But, Putin is always nothing but relentlessly patient in his diplomatic efforts, even when
European leaders, like Merkel, treat him and Russia poorly. She is, after all, the leading
mouthpiece and political ally of The Davos Crowd that believes they run the world.
The conduct of his Foreign Ministry under Sergei Lavrov always strikes the perfect balance
between bluntness and diplo-speak.
So, color me surprised when I see the official photos of his meeting with Merkel carefully
framed to paint him in a positive light.
Putin in light blues and grays, Merkel in green, the fountain in the background, leaning in
looking directly at each other and a simple Sunday morning chat.
If I didn't know better I'd be expecting them to share photos of their grandkids, well,
Putin's grandkids anyway.
Optics are important and this image captures what both parties wanted to convey. This
meeting is the beginning of a shift in the relationship between Germany and Russia for the
better.
And the question is why?
The obvious answer is necessity brought about by pressure being placed on both countries by
Donald Trump through sanctions and tariffs and their shared interests represented by the
Nordstream 2 pipeline.
But, this meeting went far deeper than that, especially since Merkel's Foreign Minister
Heiko Maas boldly proclaimed that Europe needs an alternative to the SWIFT system of
international electronic payments so as to keep global trade alive while the U.S. further
weaponizes the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. just seized another $5 billion of Russian 'oligarch' money using Credit Suisse as
its enforcement arm.
SWIFT is the main lever on which much of the U.S.'s sanctions power rests. Because it is
through SWIFT that transactions can be tracked, payments halted and fines imposed. That none of
this is strictly legal is irrelevant in the game of power-politics.
Banks like Credit Suisse can't function without access to SWIFT.
So they will roll over to the pressure. That's why the response from EU leadership to
Trump's abandoning the JCPOA has been far more bark than bite. Because the measures implemented
to protect European businesses from U.S. retaliation against them hold no weight with the
companies staring at billions in losses.
Case in point: France's Total pulling out of a multi-billion exploration deal with Iran.
This undermines the EU's credibility at a foundational level. It shows them to be the
toothless and, in EU President Donald Tusk's case, witless when faced with opposition to their
rule that isn't supported by The Davos Crowd, which Trump most definitely doesn't
represent.
So, again, the question is why?
All of this seems incredibly contradictory, at times even to a jaded and cynical observer
like me. Until you step back for a second and think bigger picture and ask the most important
question of all.
What are Trump's real goals?
It's Good to Have Goals
And I've talked about these in the past. His real goal is the destruction of that post WWII
institutional order which in his mind bankrupts the U.S. treasury through massive trade
deficits.
And in a word that means . NATO.
Trump goal is the dissolution of NATO. He wants it dismantled because it is a massive drain
on our capital base. Building weapons and maintaining bases in Europe is expensive and that
money is needed here. He knows this.
Even the mere hint of this has The Davos Crowd in apoplexy. Hence, the post-Helsinki freak
out. Hence, the drive to impeach him over Stormy Freaking Daniels. It's pathetic.
I said back in June that Trump's leaving the JCPOA was all part of his strategy to drive a
wedge between the U.S. and Germany. The Davos Crowd needs that deal to keep the dream of transferring the power of the world
back to Europe from the U.S. via cheap, Iranian energy and keep the conflict between
Israel/Saudi Arabia and Iran front and center to foment global chaos awhile keeping Russia from
getting rich again.
It needs that to support the narrative we need NATO to protect us from the inevitable
Russian attack after we provoke them into it. This keeps the money flowing through the banks
and lobbyists while draining the U.S. dry through the military/industrial complex.
The problem is that that narrative is garbage. And despite relentless Russia bashing since
before Trump was elected, the American people overwhelmingly want peace with Russia, not
war.
Poland and the Baltics sound like Democrats unhinged hysterical children over the 'threat of
Russian aggression.'
This is why Trump is also pressuring Turkey at the same time. He knows Europe is vulnerable
to Turkey's implosion. Turkey and Germany are major trading partners and the vast bulk of
Turkey's foreign currency exposure is owned by European banks, making them, as
I've said previously, Ground Zero for the debt bomb.
So the final question then is this.
Has this been Trump's goal the entire time? Is this what Trump and Putin discussed behind
closed doors in Helsinki?
The NATO Wedge
By driving a wedge between Germany and the US over NATO and attacking the foundations of
the German economy Trump is ensuring the current rapprochement between Germany and Russia?
Merkel, for her part, has been so terminally weakened by her immigration policy and
strong-armed approach to dissent that this whirlwind weekender by Putin was as much for her
benefit, politically, as his.
The implication being that if Merkel wants to stay in power with her weakening coalition and
poll numbers it's time for her to reverse course. And if that means cozying up to Russia then
so be it.
Merkel will continue to talk a good game about Crimea and Ukraine while Putin will speak
directly to the German people about ending the humanitarian crisis in Syria as a proxy for
ending the threat of further immigration.
This outflanks Merkel's position and undermines George Soros' goals of the cultural
destruction of Europe. At this point, politically, how can Merkel even argue against that
without betraying her true loyalties?
And that's what makes the implications of this Summit-That-Wasn't so interesting.
If this is indeed the case then the future of the world rests on the mid-term elections and
whether Trump is not indicted for having sex with a couple of porn stars.
I almost feel dirty writing that.
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The antagonism between Saudi Arabia and Iran sets off a variety of political reverberations
affecting the countries of the Persian Gulf, unsettling the situation between Turkey, Syria,
and Iraq, and entangling Russia and the United States in the ensuring imbroglio.
... ... ...
The role of the Russian Federation cannot be viewed apart from what is happening in the
energy-rich, formerly Soviet Central Asian republics. The so-called -Stans (Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan) are major players in today's energy markets. Whatever
they do, however, cannot be seen as separate from what Russia is doing or from Russia's
intentions. Although some of them, primarily Azerbaijan, have initiated projects that are not
aligned with Moscow's goals, they nevertheless need to behave in ways that do not upset their
powerful northern neighbour on whom they are heavily reliant, to some extent, for their welfare
(due to their dependence on oil and gas pipeline networks).
Politics is therefore deeply intertwined with energy in most of those cases, bringing
diplomacy front and centre as a determinant of behaviour and economic outcomes.
... ... ...
Europe's problem is that, with the exception of North Sea oil and gas, it relies entirely on
imports to provide it with a comfortable level of energy. Thus, events in the Middle East and
the Russian stance toward the continent determines whether it is adequately supplied with
energy or faces shortages.
The deposits in the North Sea have kept some European states (Britain and Scandinavia among
others) well supplied for quite a while. But unfortunately there is a strong suspicion that
these deposits are diminishing at a dangerous rate. As a result Europe will gradually become
dependent on imports from the Middle East, North Africa, Russia, and the Atlantic (Angola,
Brazil, Mexico, and the US). The situation is disquieting since Japan, and more recently,
China, are seeking to buy their own supplies from the same sources.
"...Things started to change after the fracking and shale gas revolution. The United
States suddenly realized that it could not only became absolutely self-sufficient in oil and
gas, but it also emerged as one of the most important exporters to the rest of the
world..."
Ths is factually untrue. The US still depends on crude oil imports to meet its needs. And
if this simple, verifiable fact is misunderstood by the author, then I have to wonder about
the rest of his analysis...
From the middle of the last century to the present, everything has been about oil. The
peak oilers were correct. What they did not consider was the power of debt to hold this whole
thing together long after it should have collapsed. Shale oil is not profitable. That does
not mater as long as debt underwrites the cost of production. What does matter is the rapid
decline rate of shale oil wells. Yes it is true that shale wells are continuing to produce
long after they have reached their peak but it is the volume of production that matters.
If you read the projections put out by the Hirsch Report, the Llyiods Report and the
Bundeswehr Report, things should get interesting in the next couple of years.
"... but neither are they amenable to a stoic acceptance of national decline" ..."
"... Unleashing American Energy ..."
"... American energy dominance, ..."
"... Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act ..."
"... "... an Israeli citizen, someone who understands your identity, who has a sense of nationhood and peoplehood, and the history and experience of the Jewish people, you should respect someone like me, who has analogous feelings about whites. You could say that I am a white Zionist – in the sense that I care about my people, I want us to have a secure homeland for us and ourselves. – Just as you want a secure homeland in Israel." ..."
Two weeks ago, we
wrote about how President Trump's foreign policy somehow had 'folded' into
'neo-Americanism', and quoted US Foreign Affairs Professor, Russell-Mead, suggesting that
Trump's 8 May metamorphosis (the exit from JCPOA), represented something new, a step-change of
direction (from his being principally a sharp Art of the Deal negotiator), toward
– pace, Russell-Mead – "a neo-American era in world politics – rather than an
[Obama-ist] post-American one". "The administration wants to enlarge American power,
rather than adjust to decline (as allegedly, Obama did). For now, at least, the Middle
East is the centrepiece of this new assertiveness", Russell-Mead opined, explaining that this
new Trump impulse stems from: [Trump's] instincts telling him that most Americans are anything
but eager for a "post-American" world. Mr. Trump's supporters don't want long wars, but
neither are they amenable to a stoic acceptance of national decline" .
There is something of a paradox here: Trump and his base deplore the cost and commitment of
the huge American defence umbrella, spread across the globe by the globalists (sentiments
aggravated by the supposed ingratitude of its beneficiaries) – yet the President wants to
" enlarge American power, rather than adjust to decline". That is, he wants
more power, but less empire. How might he square this circle?
Well, a pointer arose almost a year earlier, when on 29 June 2017, the President used a
quite unexpected word when speaking at an Energy Department event: Unleashing American
Energy . Instead of talking about American energy independence , as might be
expected, he heralded instead, a new era of American energy "dominance" .
In a speech "that sought to underscore a break with the policies of Barack Obama", the
FTnotes , Mr Trump tied
energy to his America First agenda..."The truth is we now have near limitless supplies
of energy in our country," Mr Trump said. "We are really in the driving seat, and you know
what: we don't want to let other countries take away our sovereignty, and tell us what to do,
and how to do it. That's not going to happen. With these incredible resources, my
administration will seek not only the American energy independence that we've been looking for,
for so long – but American energy dominance, " he said.
It seems, as Chris Cook explains , that
Gary Cohn, then chief economic adviser to the President had a part in the genesis to this
ambition. Cohn (then at Goldman Sachs), together with a colleague from Morgan Stanley,
conceived of a plan in 2000 to take control of the global oil trading market through an
electronic trading platform, based in New York. In brief, the big banks, attracted huge
quantities of 'managed money' (from such as hedge funds), to the market, to bet on future
prices (without their ever actually taking delivery of crude: trading 'paper oil', rather than
physical oil). And, at the same time, these banks worked in collusion with the major oil
producers (including later, Saudi Arabia) to pre-purchase physical oil in such a way
that, by withholding, or releasing physical crude from, or onto the market, the big NY banks
were able to 'influence' the prices (by creating a shortage, or a glut).
To give some idea of the capacity of these bankers to 'influence' price, by mid –
2008, it was estimated that some
$260 billion of 'managed' (speculative) investment money was in play in energy markets,
completely dwarfing the value of the oil actually coming out of the North Sea each month, at
maybe $4 to $5 billion, at most. These 'paper' oil-option plays would therefore often trump the
'fundamentals' of real supply, and real end-user demand.
'Step one' for Cohn, was therefore, for the US to manage the trading market, both in price
and access – with U.S. antagonists such as Iran or Russia, being able to access the
market on inferior terms, if at all. The putative 'step two', has been to nurse US shale
production, build new American LNG export terminals, and open America to further oil and gas
exploration, whilst strong-arming everyone from Germany to South Korea and China, to buy
American LNG exports. And 'thirdly', with Gulf oil exports already under the US umbrella, there
were then, two major Middle East energy producers beyond the boundaries of cartel 'influence'
(falling more into rival Russia's strategic energy-producing 'heartland'): Iran – which
is now the subject of regime change–style, economic siege on its oil exports, and Iraq,
which is subject of intense (soft) political pressures (such as threatening to sanction Iraq
under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act ) to force its
adherence to the western sphere.
What would this Trump notion of energy dominance mean in simple language? The US
– were energy dominance to succeed – simply would control the tap to the economic
development – or its lack thereof – for rivals China, and Asia. And the US could
squeeze Russia's revenues in this way, too. In short, the US could put a tourniquet on China's
and Russia's economic development plans. Is this why JCPOA was revoked by President Trump?
Here then, is the squaring of that circle (more US power, yet less empire): Trump's US aims
for 'domination', not through the globalists' permanent infrastructure of the US defence
umbrella, but through the smart leveraging of the US dollar and financial clearing monopoly, by
ring-fencing, and holding tight, US technology, and by dominating the energy market, which in
turn represents the on/off valve to economic growth for US rivals. In this way, Trump can
'bring the troops home', and yet America keeps its hegemony. Military conflict becomes a last
resort.
Senior advisor Peter Navarro said on NPR earlier
this week that "we can stop them [the Chinese] from putting our high tech companies out of
business" and "buying up our crown jewels of technology ... Every time we innovate something
new, China comes in and buys it, or steals it."
Is this then Trump's plan: By market domination and trade war, to prolong America's
'superiority' of technology, finance and energy – and not somehow be
obliged to "adjust to decline"? And by acting in this way, curtail – or at least postpone
– the emergence of rivals? Two questions in this context immediately present themselves:
Is this formula the adoption of neo-conservatism, by the US Administration, which Trump's own
base so detests? And, secondly, can the approach work?
It is not neo-conservatism, perhaps – but rather a re-working of a theme. The American
neo-conservatives largely wanted to take a hammer to the parts of the world they didn't like;
and to replace it with something they did. Trump's method is more Machiavellian in
character.
The
roots to both of these currents of thought lie however – more than partly –
with Carl Schmitt's influence on American conservative thinking through his friend, Leo
Strauss, at Chicago (whether not, Trump has ever read either man, the ideas still circulate in
the US ether). Schmitt held that politics (in contrast to the liberal/ humanist vein) has
nothing to do with making the world fairer, or more just – that is the work of moralists
and theologians – politics for Schmitt, concerns power and political survival, and
nothing more.
Liberals (and globalists), Schmitt suggested, are queasy at using power to crush alternative
forces from emerging: their optimistic view of human nature leads them to believe in the
possibility of mediation and compromise. The Schmittian optic, however dismissed derisively the
liberal view, in favour of an emphasis on the role of power, pure and simple – based on a
darker understanding of the true nature of 'others' and rivals. This point seems to go to the
root of Trump's thinking: Obama and the 'liberals' were ready to trade the 'crown jewels' of
'Our Culture' (financial, technological and energy expertise) through some multilateral
'affirmative action' that would help less developed states (such as rival China up the ladder).
Perhaps such thoughts too, lay behind Trump's withdrawal from the Climate Accord: Why help
putative rivals, whist, at same time, imposing voluntary handicaps on one's own Culture?
It is on this latter, quite narrow pivot (the imperative of keeping American power intact),
that neo-cons and Trumpists, come together: And both also share in their disdain for utopian
liberals who would fritter away the crown jewels of western Culture – for some or other
humanitarian ideal – only to allow America's determined rivals to rise up and overthrow
America and its Culture (in this optic).
The common ground between both currents, is expressed with remarkable candour through
Berlusconi's
comment that "we must be aware of the superiority of our [western] civilisation". Steve
Bannon says something very similar, though couched in the merits of preserving (a threatened)
western Judeo-Christian culture.
This sense of Cultural advantage that must at all costs be recuperated and preserved perhaps
goes some (but not all) way towards accounting for Trump's ardent support for Israel: Speaking
to Israel's Channel Two, Richard Spencer, a prominent leader of the American Alt-Right
(and one component to Trump's base), highlighted the deeply felt
the dispossession of white people, in their own country [the US]:
"... an Israeli citizen, someone who understands your identity, who has a sense of
nationhood and peoplehood, and the history and experience of the Jewish people, you should
respect someone like me, who has analogous feelings about whites. You could say that I am a
white Zionist – in the sense that I care about my people, I want us to have a secure
homeland for us and ourselves. – Just as you want a secure homeland in
Israel."
So, can the attempt to leverage and weaponise the American élites' Culture –
through the dollar, and putative energy hegemony, and its hold over technology transfer –
succeed in holding on to American 'Culture' (in the reductionist construct of Trump's base)?
This is the sixty-four thousand dollar question, as they say. It may just easily provoke an
equally powerful reaction; and a lot can happen domestically in the US, between now, and the
November, US mid-term, elections, which might either confirm the President in power – or
undo him. It is difficult to hold to any analytic horizon beyond that.
But a larger point is whilst Trump feels passionately about American Culture and hegemony;
the leaders of the non-West today, feel just as passionately that it is time for 'the American
Century' to yield place. Just as after WWII, former colonial states wanted independence –
so, now, today's leaders want an end to dollar monopoly, they want an opt-out from the global,
US-led order and its so-called 'international' institutions; they want to 'be' in their own
distinctive cultural way – and they want their sovereignties back. This is not just
cultural and economic nationalism, it portends a significant inflection point – away from
neo-liberal economics, from individualism and raw commercialism – towards a more rounded
human experience.
The tide, in the wake of WWII, surely was irreversible then. I can even recall the former
European colonialists subsequently bemoaning their forced withdrawal: "They'll [the former
colonies] regret it", they confidently predicted. (No, they never did.) The tide today runs
strongly too, and has spread, even, to Europe. Where – who knows – whether the
Europeans will have the spine to push back against Trump's financial and trade machinations: It
will be an important litmus for what comes next.
But what is different now (from then), is that currency hegemony, technological prowess, and
energy 'domination', are not, at all, assured to western possession. They are no longer theirs.
They began their migration, some time ago.
"... Trump's US aims for 'domination', not through the globalists' permanent infrastructure of the US defence umbrella, but through the smart leveraging of the US dollar and financial clearing monopoly, by ring-fencing, and holding tight, US technology, and by dominating the energy market, which in turn represents the on/off valve to economic growth for US rivals. ..."
"... "Towards the tail end of the Clinton administration and the Dot Com boom in 2000, [Trump's U.S. Treasury Secretary until April 2018] Gary Cohn of Goldman Sachs had dinner with his counterpart at Morgan Stanley, John Shapiro. From this dinner was hatched an audacious plan to take control of the global oil market through a new electronic global market platform." ..."
"... "Wall Street bankers, particularly Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, backed him and he launched ICE in 2000 (giving 80 percent control to the two banks who, in turn, spread out the control among Shell, Total, and British Petroleum)." ..."
"... "The second objective was a switch from oil to natural gas, and when the U.S. [ military ] was obliged to leave Saudi Arabia, they [the U.S.] thereupon established their biggest regional base in Qatar, who co-own with Iran the greatest single natural gas reserve on the planet – South Pars. ..."
"... Energy Dominance ..."
"... In the four months since President Trump's announcement, the market strategy developed by Gary Cohn is now being implemented and its elements are emerging into view. ..."
"... Firstly, there has been a massive inflow of Managed Money into the oil market, particularly the Brent contract, which has seen the Brent oil price increase by 35% since the starting point, which I believe can be dated to the August Brent/BFOE Crude Oil option expiry on June 27 th 2017. ..."
"... The dominant market narrative is that the backwardation in Brent is evidence of surging global oil demand which has emptied inventories and is leading the price to new sunlit uplands. However, I see the market rather differently. ..."
"... Firstly, whether the Brent spot month is supported by financial, rather than physical demand, the result will still be a backwardation, and because few oil producers expect a price over $60 to be sustainable they therefore hedge and depress the forward price. In support of this view, I am far from the only market observer who believes that Aramco, and Rosneft would not be selling equity if either Saudi Arabia or Russia believed the oil price trajectory will be positive even in the medium term. ..."
"... This still leaves open the $64 billion question of which market participant is motivated and able to support the ICE Brent term structure for years into the future by swapping dollar risk (T-Bills) for long term oil risk (oil reserves leased via prepay purchase/resale contracts). ..."
"... My conclusion by a process of elimination is that this Big Long can only be Saudi Arabia and regional allies, with Saudi Arabia now under the management of the thrusting young Mohammad bin Salman." ..."
"... Although Trump routinely talks about withdrawing U.S. troops, he does the exact opposite. ..."
"... the U.S. economy becomes increasingly dependent upon Big Oil and Big Minerals and Big Money and Big Military, ..."
"... War against King Saud's chosen enemies (Iran, Qatar, Syria) and possibly even against the U.S. aristocracy's chosen enemy, Russia (and against Russia's allies: China, Iran, and Syria) -- seems more likely, not less likely, with Trump's geostrategy. ..."
"... "I want to address what Mr. Cohn was talking about from a standpoint of how important American energy is as an option, not as the only option, but as an option to our allies and to count[r]ies around the world. ..."
"... At the G7 it was really kind of interesting. The first thing they beat on the table talking about the Paris accord, you can't get out of it, and I was kind of like OK. Then we would go into our bilats and they'd go, how about some of that LNG you've got? How do we buy your LNG, how do we buy your coal? And it was really interesting, it was a political issue for them. This whole Paris thing is a public relation[s], political issue for them. We made the right decision, the President made the right decision on this. I think it was one of the most powerful messages that early on in this administration that was sent. ..."
"... We are in a position to be able to clearly create a hell of a lot more friends by being able to deliver to them energy and not being held hostage by some countries, Russia in particular. Whether it is Poland, Ukraine, the entirety of the EU. Totally get it, if we can lay in American LNG, if we can be able to have an alternative to Russian anthracite coal that they control in the Ukraine. ..."
"... If that was more the reality of Trump's "Unleashing American Energy" policy than just the pro-global-burnout cheerleading of Trump's mere words, then it seems to be -- in the policy's actual intent and implementation -- more like "send more troops in" than "bring the troops home," to and from anywhere. It is more like energy policy in support of the military policy, than military policy in support of the energy policy. ..."
"... In any aristocracy, some members need to make compromises with other members, no matter how united they all are against the publics' interests. This is the way it's done -- by compromises with each other. ..."
"Trump's US aims for 'domination', not through the globalists' permanent infrastructure of
the US defence umbrella, but through the smart leveraging of the US dollar and financial
clearing monopoly, by ring-fencing, and holding tight, US technology, and by dominating the
energy market, which in turn represents the on/off valve to economic growth for US rivals.
In
this way, Trump can 'bring the troops home', and yet America keeps its hegemony [America's
control of the world, global empire]. Military conflict becomes a last resort."
He bases that crucially upon a landmark 6 November 2017 article by Chris Cook, at Seeking
Alpha, which laid out, and to a significant extent documented, a formidable and complex
geostrategy driving U.S. President Donald Trump's foreign policies. Cook headlined there
"Energy Dominance And
America First" , and noted that,
"Towards the tail end of the Clinton administration and the Dot Com boom in 2000,
[Trump's U.S. Treasury Secretary until April 2018] Gary Cohn of Goldman Sachs had dinner with
his counterpart at Morgan Stanley, John Shapiro. From this dinner was hatched an audacious plan
to take control of the global oil market through a new electronic global market
platform."
This "global market platform," which had been started months earlier in 2000 by Jeffrey Sprecher , is "ICE,"
or InterContinental Exchange, and it uses financial derivatives in order to provide to Wall
Street banks control over the future direction of commodites prices (so that the insiders can
game the markets), by means of the financial-futures markets, locking in future
purchase-and-sale agreements. It also entails Wall Street's
buying enormous commodities-storage warehouses and stashing them with such commodities - such
as, in that case, aluminum) , and so it influences also the real estate markets, and
doesn't only manipulate the commodities markets. Those vast storehouses (and the operation of
the U.S. Government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to carry out a similar price-manipulation
function in the oil business) are crucial in order for the entire scheme to be able to
function, because without control over the storehousing of physical commodities, such
futures-price manipulations aren't possible. Consequently, ICE couldn't get off the ground
without major Wall Street partners, which are willing to do that. Cohn and Shapiro (Goldman,
and Morgan Stanley) backed Sprecher's operation; and Wikipedia states that,
"Wall Street bankers, particularly Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, backed him and he
launched ICE in 2000 (giving 80 percent control to the two banks who, in turn, spread out the
control among Shell, Total, and British Petroleum)."
This is today's financial world -- a world in which billionaires control the future
directions of commodities-prices, and thus manipulate markets, and even determine the economic
fates of nations. It's not the myth of capitalism; it is the reality of capitalism. It
functions by means of corruption, as it always has, but the corrupt methods constantly
evolve.
However, Trump's geostrategy goes beyond merely this, especially by bringing into the entire
operation the world's wealthiest person, the trillionaire King Saud, who, as the sole owner of
the Saudi Government, which in turns owns the world's largest corporation Aramco, which in turn
dominates the oil market and which is also #6 in the natural-gas market (far behind the three
giants, which King Saud is trying to destroy -- Russia, Iran, and Qatar -- so that the Sauds
will become able to dominate even there). Trump's geostrategy ties King Saud even more tightly
than before, into America's aristocracy.
King Saud, as Cook noted, is trying to disinvest in petroleum and reposition increasingly
into natural gas, because outside the United States and around the world, people are seriously
concerned to minimize global warming so as to postpone global burnout from uncontrollably
soaring atmospheric carbon. Petroleum has an even worse carbon footprint than does natural gas;
and therefore natural gas is the world's "transition fuel" to a 'survivable' future, while
solar and other alternatives take hold (even if too late). Despite all of the carbon-fuels
industries' propaganda, people outside the United States are determined to delay global
burnout, and the insiders know this. King Saud knows that his petroleum-laden portfolio will
have to diversify fast, because the long-term future for petroleum-prices is decline. And he
won't be able to control prices at all in the natural-gas business unless he's got America's
aristocracy on his side, in the effort to keep those prices up (at least while the Sauds will
be increasing their profits from natural gas). Unlike his dominance over OPEC, Saudi Arabia has
no such position to control natural gas-prices. He thus needs Wall Street's cooperation.
Cook said:
"The second objective was a switch from oil to natural gas, and when the U.S. [
military ] was
obliged to leave Saudi Arabia, they [the U.S.] thereupon established their biggest regional
base in Qatar, who co-own with Iran the greatest single natural gas reserve on the planet
– South Pars.
Energy Dominance
In the four months since President Trump's announcement, the market strategy developed
by Gary Cohn is now being implemented and its elements are emerging into view.
Firstly, there has been a massive inflow of Managed Money into the oil market,
particularly the Brent contract, which has seen the Brent oil price increase by 35% since the
starting point, which I believe can be dated to the August Brent/BFOE Crude Oil option expiry
on June 27 th 2017.
The dominant market narrative is that the backwardation in Brent is evidence of surging
global oil demand which has emptied inventories and is leading the price to new sunlit uplands.
However, I see the market rather differently.
Firstly, whether the Brent spot month is supported by financial, rather than physical
demand, the result will still be a backwardation, and because few oil producers expect a price
over $60 to be sustainable they therefore hedge and depress the forward price. In support of
this view, I am far from the only market observer who believes that Aramco, and Rosneft would
not be selling equity if either Saudi Arabia or Russia believed the oil price trajectory will
be positive even in the medium term.
This still leaves open the $64 billion question of which market participant is motivated
and able to support the ICE Brent term structure for years into the future by swapping dollar
risk (T-Bills) for long term oil risk (oil reserves leased via prepay purchase/resale
contracts).
My conclusion by a process of elimination is that this Big Long can only be Saudi Arabia
and regional allies, with Saudi Arabia now under the management of the thrusting young Mohammad
bin Salman."
However, I do not agree with Alastair Crooke's "In this way, Trump can 'bring the troops
home', and yet America keeps its hegemony [America's control of the world, global empire].
Military conflict becomes a last resort." I explained at Strategic Culture on March 25th
"How the
Military Controls America" and noted there that "on 21 May 2017, US President Donald Trump
sold to the Saud family, who own Saudi Arabia, an all-time-record $350 billion of US
arms-makers' products." This means that not only Wall Street -- the main institutional agency
for America's aristocracy -- and not only American Big Oil likewise, are committed to the royal
Saud family, but U.S. corporations such as Lockheed Martin also are. Vast profits are to be
made, by insiders, in invasions and occupations, just as in gas and oil, and in brokerage.
Although Trump routinely talks about withdrawing U.S. troops, he does the exact opposite.
And even if this trend reverses and America's troop-numbers head down, while
the U.S. economy
becomes increasingly dependent upon Big Oil and Big Minerals and Big Money and Big Military,
America's military budget is, under Trump, the only portion of the entire U.S. federal
Government that's increasing; so, "Military conflict becomes a last resort" does not seem
likely, in such a context. Rather, the reverse would seem to be the far likelier case.
War against King Saud's chosen enemies (Iran, Qatar, Syria) and possibly even against
the U.S. aristocracy's chosen enemy, Russia (and against Russia's allies: China, Iran, and
Syria) -- seems more likely, not less likely, with Trump's geostrategy.
In fact, on 29 June 2017, when President Trump first announced his "Unleashing American
Energy Event," the President spoke his usual platitudes about the supposed necessity to
increase coal-production, and what he said was telecast and
publicized ; but his U.S. Energy Secretary, the barely literate former Governor of Texas,
Rick Perry, also delivered a speech, which was never telecast nor published, except that a few
days later, on July 3rd, an excerpt from it was somehow published on the website of Liquified
Natural Gas Global, and it was this:
"I want to address what Mr. Cohn was talking about from a standpoint of how important
American energy is as an option, not as the only option, but as an option to our allies and
to count[r]ies around the world.
At the G7 it was really kind of interesting. The first thing they beat on the table
talking about the Paris accord, you can't get out of it, and I was kind of like OK. Then we
would go into our bilats and they'd go, how about some of that LNG you've got? How do we buy
your LNG, how do we buy your coal? And it was really interesting, it was a political issue
for them. This whole Paris thing is a public relation[s], political issue for them. We made
the right decision, the President made the right decision on this. I think it was one of the
most powerful messages that early on in this administration that was sent.
We are in a position to be able to clearly create a hell of a lot more friends by
being able to deliver to them energy and not being held hostage by some countries, Russia in
particular. Whether it is Poland, Ukraine, the entirety of the EU. Totally get it, if we can
lay in American LNG, if we can be able to have an alternative to Russian anthracite coal that
they control in the Ukraine. That singularly will have more to do with keeping our allies
free and building their confidence in us than practically anything else that I have seen out
there. It is a positive message around the world right now."
If that was more the reality of Trump's "Unleashing American Energy" policy than just
the pro-global-burnout cheerleading of Trump's mere words, then it seems to be -- in the
policy's actual intent and implementation -- more like "send more troops in" than "bring the
troops home," to and from anywhere. It is more like energy policy in support of the military
policy, than military policy in support of the energy policy.
This sounds even better for the stockholders of Lockheed Martin and other weapons-firms than
for the stockholders of ExxonMobil and other extractive firms. On 6 March 2018, Xinhua News
Agency reported that, "U.S.
President Donald Trump's chief economic adviser Gary Cohn has summoned executives from U.S.
companies that depend on aluminum and steel to meet with Trump this Thursday, in a bid to
persuade the president to drop his tariff plan, media reported Tuesday." After all: Goldman has
warehouses full of aluminum, and has the futures-contracts which already commit the Wall Street
firm to particular manipulations in the aluminum (and other) markets. Controlling the
Government so that it does only what you want it to do, and only when you want the Government
to do it, is difficult. In any aristocracy, some members need to make compromises with
other members, no matter how united they all are against the publics' interests. This is the
way it's done -- by compromises with each other.
"... Meanwhile, what is surely the single most urgent issue for both sides was not mentioned at all in their opening statements: namely how to respond to US President Donald Trump's new sanctions on Russia and on participants in the Nord Stream II gas pipeline project that both countries support. ..."
"... The Washington Post ..."
"... The New York Times ..."
"... The Washington Post ..."
"... New York Times' ..."
"... I close out this little survey of English-speaking media by pointing to an article in The Guardian ..."
"... Both Merkel and Putin are now facing the same challenge: US foreign policy has become unpredictable, both for its allies and for rivals like Moscow. Notwithstanding the warm discussions Donald Trump had with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, the American administration has just announced a new wave of sanctions on Russia relating to the Skripal affair. ..."
"... La Libre Belgique ..."
"... "Germany is not the only 'Western' nation to return to the Kremlin. Putin is taking full advantage of the boomerang effect caused by the policies of Donald Trump, who, by hammering away at his customary allies is pushing them to other interlocutors. By looking for confrontations, imposing taxes and sanctions while thinking that this rampant isolationism will make the United States 'great again,' Trump is helping to build a wall that he no doubt did not imagine, that of the anti-Trump people." ..."
"... Frankfurter Allgemeine ..."
"... Putin is under economic pressure to find closer ties with Europe. In Austria, which now chairs the European Council, he has allies in the government, namely the extreme right populists of the Freedom Party which installed Kneissl. But the way to Europe passes by way of Merkel and Putin knows that. ..."
"... Vremya Pokazhet ..."
"... Frankfurter Allgemeine ..."
"... In my view, Trump's use of sanctions and tariffs here, there, everywhere has a totally different logic from what is adduced in the writings of my peers in the analyst community. He invokes them because 1. they are within his sole power as Chief Executive and 2. they are in principle as American as apple pie and do not require grand explanations in Congress or before the public. As to why he invokes them, there you have to look at Trump's foreign policy from a 360 degree perspective and not merely as it relates to Putin or to Erdogan or to any of the small slices we see discussed in the news. ..."
"... When viewed in the round, it is obvious that Trump is reshuffling the deck. He is doing what he can to break up NATO and the other military alliances around the world which are consuming more than half of the U.S. defense budget and do not arguably provide greater security to the American homeland than the country can do for itself without fixed alliances and overseas bases. ..."
"... By contrast, what Trump is now doing is not a blunder or a bit of bluster. Even if he is not conversant with the whole of the Realist School of international relations, as surely he is not, he does grasp the fundamentals, namely the centrality of the sovereign nation-state and of the balance of power mechanism by which these states are constantly changing alignments of these nation-states to ensure no one enjoys hegemony . ..."
"... Accordingly, I insist that the possible rapprochement of Russia and Germany will be in line with Trump's reshuffling of the deck not in spite of it. ..."
Reading the tea leaves of the Putin-Merkel meeting
During this past Saturday, 18 August, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a brief visit to
Austria to attend the wedding of the country's Minister of Foreign Affairs Karin Kneissl. Per
the Kremlin, this stop of several hours in the Styrian wine country not far from the border
with Slovenia was a "purely private" side excursion "on the road to Germany" for the state
visit with Chancellor Angela Merkel starting later in the day at the Meseberg Palace, the
federal guest house 60 km north of Berlin.
Journalists were admitted to film the wedding party, including Putin's dance with the 53
year old bride. No questions were taken and no statements were issued by the President's Press
Secretary, who also was present. We know only that on the return journey to Graz airport, Putin
was accompanied by Austria's Chancellor Sebastian Kurz. Presumably they had some issues to
discuss that may be characterized as official talks.
Prior to their meeting both Putin and Angela Merkel made statements to the press listing the
topics they intended to discuss. We may assume that these lists were not exhaustive. Comparing
their lists, we find that the respective priorities of the parties were in inverted order, with
economic cooperation at the head of Putin's list while regulating the Donbass crisis in Ukraine
was the top concern of Merkel. Moreover, the content of issues bearing the same heading was
very different. Both sides spoke of Syria, but whereas for Putin the issue for discussion is
the humanitarian crisis of refugees, ensuring their return to their homes from camps in
Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey by raising funds to repair and replace fundamental infrastructure
destroyed in the war. For Merkel, the number one issue in Syria is to prevent the
Russian-backed Syrian armed forces from creating a new humanitarian disaster by their ongoing
campaign to retake Idlib province from the militants opposed to Bashar Assad.
Meanwhile, what is surely the single most urgent issue for both sides was not mentioned at
all in their opening statements: namely how to respond to US President Donald Trump's new
sanctions on Russia and on participants in the Nord Stream II gas pipeline project that both
countries support.
As was explained at the outset, there was to be no press conference or joint statement
issued at the conclusion of the talks. The only information we have is that Merkel and Putin
conferred for more than three hours, which is in itself quite extraordinary and suggests that
some understandings may have been achieved.
In a word, the potentially very important diplomatic developments of Saturday remain, for
once, a state secret of the parties, with no leaks for the press to parse. And yet there is
material here worthy of our consideration. I have in mind the interpretations of what might
transpire before, during and after the events of Saturday in the news and commentary reportage
of various countries having greater or lesser interest in Russian affairs. Indeed, my perusal
of French, Belgian, German, British, American and Russian news media shows great diversity of
opinion and some penetrating and highly pertinent remarks based on different information bases.
This material is all essential if we are to make sense of the behavior of the parties on the
international stage in the coming weeks.
In this essay, I will set out what I have found per country, starting with the least
attentive to detail - the United States - and ending with those who offered the best informed
and most interested reportage, Germany and Russia. I will conclude with my own reading of the
tea leaves.
* * * *
Let us take The Washington Post and The New York Times as our markers for
how US mainstream media reported on Putin's meetings this past Saturday.
On the 18th, The Washington Post carried in its online edition two articles dealing
with the Putin diplomatic doings. "At Austrian foreign minister's wedding, Putin brings the
music, the flowers and the controversy" was written by the newspaper's bureau chief in Berlin,
Griff Witte. It is accompanied by video clips of Vladimir Putin dancing with the bride and
speaking, in German, to the wedding party seated at their banquet table. The journalist touches
very briefly on the main political dimensions of Putin's visit to Austria, including the party
relations between United Russia and the far right Freedom Party in Austria's ruling coalition
which nominated Kneissl for her post, the criticism of Putin's participation in the wedding
coming from the Opposition parties in Austria who see it as a violation of the government's own
ambition to be a neutral bridge between East and West, and the issue of Putin's sowing division
on the continent. The only criticism one might offer is that the article is superficial, that
each of the issues raised deserves in-depth analysis separately.
The newspaper's second article online, which spread its net more broadly and covered the
meeting with Merkel in Germany as well as the visit in Austria, came from an Associated Press
reporter, not its own staff. Here again, the problem is that issues surrounding the meetings
are not more than bullet points, and the reader is given no basis for reaching an independent
finding on what has happened..
The New York Times' feature article "Merkel and Putin Sound Pragmatic Notes After
Years of Tension," also published on the 18th and datelined Berlin was cited by Russian
television news for a seemingly positive valuation of the talks in Meseberg Palace. However,
the content of the article by reporter Melissa Eddy is more cautious, highlighting the pattern
of "conflicts and reconciliations" that have marked German-Russian relations over the centuries
and seeing the present stage not as a warming of relations but instead as reaching for
compromises "on Syria, energy and other key issues while maintaining their differences over
Russia's role in the conflict in Ukraine." She sees the Syrian issue as one where German and
Russian interests may be closest given that refugees from the Middle East are now a German
preoccupation with political weight. The reporter cites several experts attached to well-known
institutes in Germany that are generally skeptical about Russia's intentions. But the end
result is better informed than most NYT reporting on Russia even if it leaves us
wondering what will result from the Saturday diplomacy.
In both mainstream papers there is no attempt to find a link between Putin's two visits on
Saturday.
I close out this little survey of English-speaking media by pointing
to an article in
The Guardian from the 18th entitled "Putin urges Europe to help
rebuild Syria so refugees can return." This piece comes from the Agence France-Presse in Berlin. It is not much
more than a recitation of the lists of topics for discussion that Putin and Merkel issued
before their talks. But the reporter has made his choice for the most important of them, Syria
and refugees.
The French-language press does not seem to have been very interested in Putin's "private"
trip to the wedding of the Austrian foreign minister, but was definitely keen to discuss
Putin's trip to Berlin. On the day preceding the Putin-Merkel meeting, the French press offered
a clear concept of where things were headed. We read in Figaro , "Merkel receives
Putin Saturday to renew a difficult dialogue." A caption in bold just below is more
eye-catching: "While the German Chancellor has become the main opponent to the Russian
President within the EU, the policy of sanctions conducted by Washington has led to a
rapprochement between Berlin and Moscow with regard to numerous issues."
The reporter notes that following the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, relations
between the two heads of state had become quite bad and in four years they met only when
obliged to do so during international summits.
"But starting three months ago, their diplomatic exchanges have intensified: in May Angela
Merkel met the chief of the Kremlin in Sochi, Russia. In July, she met the head of the Russian
diplomatic corps, Sergei Lavrov, in Berlin. By inviting Vladimir Putin this time, the German
Chancellor has promised 'in-depth discussions.' "She is pursuing a pragmatic attempt at
normalization of German-Russian relations, because the international realities have changed,'
explains Stefan Meister, director of the Robert Bosch Center for Russia."
And how has the calculus of international relations changed? Both Merkel and Putin are now
facing the same challenge: US foreign policy has become unpredictable, both for its allies and
for rivals like Moscow. Notwithstanding the warm discussions Donald Trump had with Vladimir
Putin in Helsinki, the American administration has just announced a new wave of sanctions on
Russia relating to the Skripal affair.
"The American policy represents a danger for the Russian economy and a threat to German
interests."
A spokesperson from Merkel's CDU party responsible for foreign policy is quoted on the
possible dangers of secondary sanctions being directed at Germany through the application of US
extraterritoriality against those failing to respect the new sanctions on Russia.
The article explains the issues surrounding the Nord Steam 2 pipeline, and in particular
Trump's hostility to the project for its locking in German dependence on Russian
hydrocarbons.
And the author points to the common interests of Germany and Russia over maintenance of the
Iranian nuclear deal as a factor powering the rapprochement of the two countries. Here again
the common threat is Donald Trump and American sanctions against those companies which continue
to trade with Iran.
The article concludes that divergent views of Russia and Germany over Ukraine and Syria
exclude any breakthrough at the meeting on Saturday. But nonetheless the dialogue that was
lacking these several past years is being recreated.
In its weekend edition issued on 18 August, the Belgian mainstream daily La Libre
Belgique was even more insistent on interpreting the Merkel-Putin meeting as a consequence
of the policies of Donald Trump. Their editorial captures the sense very nicely in its
tongue-in-cheek headline: "Trump is the best 'ally' of Putin."
La Libre sees Vladimir Putin's latest diplomatic initiatives as directly resulting
from the way his host at the White House has annoyed everyone. Moreover, his outreach is
welcomed:
"Germany is not the only 'Western' nation to return to the Kremlin. Putin is taking full
advantage of the boomerang effect caused by the policies of Donald Trump, who, by hammering
away at his customary allies is pushing them to other interlocutors. By looking for
confrontations, imposing taxes and sanctions while thinking that this rampant isolationism
will make the United States 'great again,' Trump is helping to build a wall that he no doubt
did not imagine, that of the anti-Trump people."
The editors point to Turkish President Erdogan's clear signal that he is now
looking for other allies. He has done his calculations and has said he has more to gain with
Moscow than with Washington.'
The editorial concludes that a summit on reconstruction of Syria might even take place at
the start of September between Moscow, Ankara, Paris and Berlin. The conclusion? "Putin has
taken center stage on the chessboard. Thank you, Mr. Trump."
The article filed by La Libre 's correspondent in Berlin, Sebastien Millard, bears
a heading that matches the editorial view of the newspaper: "Merkel and Putin - allies of
convenience facing Trump." The author credits Donald Trump with being the catalyst for the
resumption of dialogue between Germany and Russia; they are telling Washington that they do not
accept its blackmail. He notes that we should not expect any reversal of alliances. There are
too many differences of view between Berlin and Moscow on a variety of issues.
* * * *
The German press paid a good deal of attention to Vladimir Putin's visit to Austria for the
wedding of Foreign Minister Karin Kreissl.
In an article posted on the 16th entitled "Suspicion that Austria is a Trojan horse,"
Die Welt highlighted the negatives of Putin's presence. Quoting an "expert from the
University of Innsbruck" this does not cast a good light on the country. They anticipate
political fall-out. This will impair Austria's ability as chair of the European Council to play
a role of intermediary in the Ukraine conflict. The only beneficiary of the visit will be the
the Russia-friendly be the Russia-friendly Freedom Party. For Putin, being a guest provides him
with the opportunity to demonstrate that he is not isolated but is instead highly welcome in
society of an EU country.
As for the coming meeting with Merkel on Saturday evening, Die Welt in a related
article of the same day lists the issues for discussion. Without taking a position, it cites
experts for and against the Nord Stream II pipeline and other issues on the list.
Welt's report from the wedding party on the 18th was gossipy and unfriendly, comparing it to
a wedding of some European royal family because of the extraordinary guest list that included
the country's chancellor, vice chancellor, and defense minister as well as the head of OPEC
and...Vladimir Putin. With typical German petty financial accounting, they reckon that the 500
police and other security measures needed for the safety of the highly placed guests cost the
Austrian tax payers 250,000 euros.
A separate article in Die Welt deals with Putin's meeting with Merkel at the
Meseberg Palace. The emphasis here is on Merkel's remarks during the Statement prior to the
talks that cooperation with Russia is "vital" to deal with many conflicts globally and that
both sides bear responsibility to find solutions.
The article quotes from the opening statements of the leaders on all the issues in their
list for discussion - Syria, Ukraine, Nord Stream II. We are given bare facts without any
analysis to speak of.
The other major mainstream daily Frankfurter Allgemeine in its Saturday, 18 August
edition offered separate articles on Putin's visits to Austria and Germany.
The article on Karin Kneissl's wedding heads off in a very different direction from the
reporting in other media that I have summarized above. FAZ notes that Kneissl is
rarely in the headlines and it asks: who is she? They answer the question with some curious
details. We learn that Kneissl was once active in competitive sports and even now swims a
kilometer every day. For many years she has lived on a small farmstead with a couple of boxers,
two ponies, hens and cats. Each morning her chauffeur takes her and the dogs to her office in
Vienna, to return in the evening. Regrettably, FAZ does not take this curious
biographical sketch further. No connection is drawn between her personality and the Russian
President's acceptance of her invitation to her wedding.
FAZ similarly has chosen to amuse rather than inform in its coverage of the meeting
in Berlin entitled "Sparkling wine in Austria, sparkling water in Meseberg." They comment on
how Putin arrived half an hour late, on how it is hard to see how the meeting could be
characterized as a success. They stress that we know nothing about the content of the
consultations. Then they tick off the opening positions of the sides as set out in their
statements before the talks.
Spiegel online risks more by giving more interpretation and less bare facts. Its
article entitled "Something of a new start" suggests that a rapprochement is underway and that
both Merkel and Putin have a lot in play. Unlike the other German press we have mentioned,
Spiegel sees a direct link between Putin's attending the wedding in Styria and his visit to
Merkel.
Putin is under economic pressure to find closer ties with Europe. In Austria, which now
chairs the European Council, he has allies in the government, namely the extreme right
populists of the Freedom Party which installed Kneissl. But the way to Europe passes by way of
Merkel and Putin knows that.
Meanwhile, says Spiegel , Germany also is interested in improving relations with
Russia despite all the controversy, namely due to the growing conflicts with US President
Donald Trump. We don't know the exact content of the talks which were confidential, but there
is some movement now between Germany and Russia.
Spiegel remains cautious. Cordiality does not enter into the relationship. The
parties keep their distance. There is no laughter to lighten the atmosphere. Yet, it concludes:
"The talks have prospects and we can see the wish to make progress through common positions,
and without being silent about contradictions. Diplomatic normality, as it were. A step
forward."
* * * *
If the great bulk of commentary in the West about Putin's diplomatic weekend was reserved
and stayed by the bare facts without speculation, Russian television more than made up for
dryness. I point in particular to two political talk shows which invited a mixture of experts
from different backgrounds.
Let us begin with the show Vremya Pokazhet (Time will tell) on
state television's Pervy Kanal . Their Friday, 17 August program focused on Putin's
forthcoming visit to the wedding 'on the road to Berlin,' which several panelists saw as a
strong signal to Germany that Russ1+
ia had other channels to the EU if Germany refuses to be its intercessor.
The visit was said to be breaking new ground in diplomatic practice. According to panelist
Andrei Baklanov, deputy chair of the association of Russian diplomats, this kind of positive,
human diplomacy is Russia's answer to the negative behavior in international affairs that has
occupied center stage in the recent past - sanctions, fake news, etc. As another panelist
interjected, this is the first time that a Russian head of state attended a wedding abroad
since Tsar Nicholas did so in Germany in 1913.
Baklanov proceeded to provide details about the bride, however, bringing out aspects of her
career that are far more relevant to her attracting the attention of Putin than the
Frankfurter Allgemeine produced. We learn that she grew up in Amman, Jordan, that she
speaks 8 languages: Arabic, Hebrew, Magyar, French, Spanish, Italian, English as well as her
native German. She studied Near Eastern languages in Vienna University, in the Jewish
University of Jerusalem, in the University of Jordan and also graduated from the National
School of Administration in France. She holds a doctorate in law. She is a non-party minister,
which also attests to her generally recognized professionalism. For all of these reasons, she
is a good fit with Putin's determination to find supporters in Europe for investments to
restore Syrian infrastructure and enable the return of refugees.
Sergey Mironov, leader of the socialist party Fair Russia said that despite Merkel's warning
in advance not to expect breakthroughs it is likely progress was made in agreeing how to deal
with US sanctions. This would be tested in the coming days.
As for the link between the visits to Austria and Germany, the representative of a
pro-business party Sergey Stankevich reminded viewers that Germany and Austria are the market
makers in Europe for Russian gas. Nord Stream II gas may land in Germany but a large part of it
will be pumped further to Austria's hub for distribution elsewhere in Europe. Whatever may have
been said publicly, Stankevich believes that Merkel and Putin did agree on many if not all the
subjects named before the start: Iran, Syria, Ukraine, Nord Stream.
Russian media coverage of the Saturday travels of their President continued on Russian news
programs into Monday, with video clips of Putin dancing at the wedding and speaking alongside
Merkel before entering into their talks at Meseberg Palace.
* * * *
Looking back at the media coverage of Putin's visits to Austria and Germany on 18 August,
and with all due respect to those who opinions are different from mine, I find that the most
helpful for our understanding of the present day international situation were the report and
editorial in Belgium's Libre Belgique and the unruly, risky but at times brilliant
insights on Russian television.
What comes out of this is the understanding that the visits to a wedding in Austria and to
the federal Chancellor outside Berlin were directly linked in Russian diplomatic strategy, that
Russia is playing the Austrian card during the country's six months at the helm of the European
Council in Brussels, that Russia is pushing for a multi-party relief effort for Syria to
facilitate the return of refugees to their home and pacification of the war-torn country. The
web of common interests that Russia is pursuing has at its core the fragility of the current
world order and generalized anxiety of leading countries due to America's aggressive pursuit of
narrow national interest under Donald Trump as seen in his tariff wars and sanctions directed
at friends and foes alike.
Where I differ from the interpretations set out in the foregoing press reports is in my
understanding of what Trump is doing and why.
The nearly universal assumption of commentators is that Trump's policies known as "Make
America Great" are ignorant and doomed to fail. They are assumed to be isolationist,
withdrawing America from the world community.
However, Trump did not invent bullying of US allies. That was going strong under George W.
Bush, with his challenge "you are either with us or against us" when he sought to align the
West behind his invasion of Iraq in 2003 without authorization of the UN Security Council. His
more urbane successor Barack Obama was no kinder to U.S. allies, who were slapped with crushing
fines for violations of U.S. sanctions on Iran, just to mention one way in which they were kept
in line. And the U.S. Congress today is no more reasonable and diplomatic than the President in
the brutal unilateral sanctions it has on its own initiative advocated against not just Russia
but also against Turkey and other states which are not snapping to attention with respect to
purchases of military materiel from Russia.
What made U.S. bullying tolerable before Trump was the ideological smokescreen of "shared
values," namely democracy promotion, human rights and rule of law, that all members of the
alliances could swear to and which set them apart from the still unenlightened parts of the
globe where autocrats hold sway.
In my view, Trump's use of sanctions and tariffs here, there, everywhere has a totally
different logic from what is adduced in the writings of my peers in the analyst community. He
invokes them because 1. they are within his sole power as Chief Executive and 2. they are in
principle as American as apple pie and do not require grand explanations in Congress or before
the public. As to why he invokes them, there you have to look at Trump's foreign policy from a
360 degree perspective and not merely as it relates to Putin or to Erdogan or to any of the
small slices we see discussed in the news.
When viewed in the round, it is obvious that Trump is reshuffling the deck. He is doing what
he can to break up NATO and the other military alliances around the world which are consuming
more than half of the U.S. defense budget and do not arguably provide greater security to the
American homeland than the country can do for itself without fixed alliances and overseas
bases.
The first two presidencies of this millennium undid the country's greatest geopolitical
achievement of the second half of the 20th century: the informal alliance with China against
Russia that put Washington at the center of all global politics. Bush and Obama did that by
inattention and incomprehension of what was at stake. That inattention was an expression of
American hubris in the unipolar world which, it was assumed, was the new normal, not a
blip.
By contrast, what Trump is now doing is not a blunder or a bit of bluster. Even if he is not
conversant with the whole of the Realist School of international relations, as surely he is
not, he does grasp the fundamentals, namely the centrality of the sovereign nation-state and of
the balance of power mechanism by which these states are constantly changing alignments of
these nation-states to ensure no one enjoys hegemony . We see this understanding when he speaks
about looking out for American interests while the heads of state whom he meets are looking out
for the interests of theirs.
In his tweets we find that our allies are ripping us off, that
they are unfair competitors. His most admiring remark about Russia is that it is a strong
competitor. The consistent element in Trump's thinking is ignored or willfully misunderstood in
the press.
Accordingly, I insist that the possible rapprochement of Russia and Germany will be in line
with Trump's reshuffling of the deck not in spite of it.
Good Optics · about 3 hours ago
This nuanced analysis rings true and speaks to the fact that -
though Trump may not exactly be playing 47D chess - he certainly
does have some good intentions that, left to follow their course,
would have a chance of making the world a better place. But that
will not be allowed to happen by those in the US with firm
commitments to pursue the world's subjugation through any means
possible.
The Cs did tell us that Trump's heart is in the right place, unlikely
though that does appear a lot of the time . . .
Gazprom leads the world in capital expenditure (capex) on global energy projects, by a
wide, wide margin – $160 Billion to be spent on 84 projects worldwide, including Nord
Stream II and Turkish Stream. That's nearly double the spending of its next-closest
competitor, Sinopec, at $87 Billion. Royal Dutch Shell is third, and Exxon a distant
fourth.
If you add Rosneft, that's another $50 Billion in capex for Russia. Odd behaviour for an
isolated country whose economy is in tatters. One whose government debt is 12.6 % of GDP and
declining.
Speaking of government debt, how's that parameter looking for The Exceptional Nation?
Whoa: that's exceptional. Not even much point in expressing it as a percentage of GDP, I
guess.
Just to drive the point home for any who might not have gotten it, Russia –
friendless, alone against the world, and reeling from the bite of American sanctions –
is outspending the USA nearly three to one on global energy investments, although its debt is
a tiny fraction of America's out-of-control spending on other important things, like its
bloated defense budget.
Oh, that's right – Vladimir Putin is a tyrant and a dictator, squeezing the country
dry in neverending pursuit of self-enrichment. I almost forgot.
"Russian influence will flow through that pipeline right into Europe, and that is what we
are going to prevent," an unnamed U.S. official told the
Wall Street Journal just as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chancellor Angela
Merkel meet outside of Berlin on Saturday centered on the two countries moving forward with the
controversial Russian-German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, but also involving issues from the
Iran nuclear deal to ending the war in Syria.
Intense pressure from Washington is overshadowing the project, construction of which is
already in advanced stages, as
the WSJ cites current and former US officials who say sanctions are under discussion and
could be mobilized in a mere matter of weeks .
These potential sanctions, ostensibly being discussed in response to US intelligence claims
of Russian interference in the 2016 election, could target companies and financial firms
involved in the massive pipeline's construction . This comes after comments from President
Trump at the opening of a NATO summit in July made things uncomfortable for his German
counterpart when he said that Germany is so dependent on Russia for energy that it's
essentially being "held captive" by Vladimir Putin and his government.
"Germany is captive of Russia because it is getting so much of its energy from Russia. They
pay billions of dollars to Russia and we have to defend them against Russia,"
Trump told NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg at a televised opening breakfast.
The pipeline has been opposed by multiple US administrations, who have long accuse the
Kremlin of seeking to accrue political leverage over Europe given the latter's already high
dependence on Russian natural gas. The pipeline has been a frequent talking point and target of
attacks by Trump,
who has threatened to escalate the trade war against Germany going back months if it
supported the construction of the pipeline. US officials have also expressed concern that
Russia will pull pack significantly from delivering natural gas via Ukraine when its Gazprom
tranit contract expires by the close of 2019. Ukraine is currently the chief Russian
natural-gas export point to the EU and depends heavily on levying fees on this trade.
Both Russia and Germany have sought to calm US concerns over the Ukraine issue, with Putin
himself reportedly telling both Merkel and Trump that he is "ready to preserve" gas transit
through Ukraine even after Nord Stream 2 was completed.
US officials speaking to the WSJ , however, downplayed the Ukraine issue, instead focusing
on the urgency of allowing such significant and irreversible Russian economic, political, and
infrastructural inroads into the heart of Europe .
Richard Grenell, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, told the
WSJ , "We have been clear that firms working in the Russian energy export-pipeline sector
are engaging in a line of business that carries sanctions risk," -- something which he's
repeatedly emphasized with officials in Berlin. President Trump himself has also reportedly
raised the issue directly with Chancellor Merkel on multiple occasions. But for all the shrill
US media claims that Trump is somehow doing Putin's bidding, the WSJ
has this illuminating line : "Officially, the European Commission, the EU's executive body,
is coordinating the gas-transit talks, but Ms. Merkel also has played a leading role because of
her regular contacts and longstanding relationship with Mr. Putin, European officials say
."
Meanwhile, it appears that Washington has a losing hand even while making threats of
sanctions in an attempt to block the pipeline project.
A European energy executive familiar with the discussions said company representatives had
told John McCarrick, deputy assistant secretary in the State Department's Bureau of Energy
Resources, that the five European companies and Gazprom had already provided €5.5
billion ($6.3 billion) in financing and that the project wouldn't be stopped even if the U.S.
were to impose sanctions .
The Nord Stream 2 project was started in 2015 and is a major joint venture between Russia's
Gazprom and European partners, including German Uniper, Austria's OMV, France's Engie,
Wintershall and the British-Dutch multinational Royal Dutch Shell.
The pipeline is set to run from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea - doubling the
existing pipeline's capacity of 55 cubic meters per year, and is therefore critical for
Europe's future energy needs.
Currently, the second phase involves utilizing an existing pipeline already channelling
smaller amount of gas from Russia to Germany. Construction for the second phase started in May
of this year.
With much joviality and humour, Ukraine prepares to sever all remaining public-transit links
with Russia. I suppose there are still roads, and if you have a car and can afford gas, you
can still drive there.
This, according to the transport minister, is 'like the good old days'. I'll tell you
something else that's like the good old days, Mr. Minister – the living wage in
Ukraine.
And yet Ukraine still seems to think Europe must force Russia to continue transiting
Russian gas through Ukraine, and paying Kuh-yiv for the privilege.
It took more than 20 years for littoral states of the Caspian Sea to reach an agreement that
would lay the legal foundations for the full utilization of the region's resources. The Fifth
Caspian Summit in Aktau, Kazakhstan, brought the long-sought breakthrough after leaders of
Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Iran signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea
– a remarkable feat considering that heretofore, barring bilateral deals, the Caspian has
been governed by an obsolete 1940 convention between the Soviet Union (of which four current
littoral states were a part) and Iran.
As the current Convention incorporates a plethora of tradeoffs between countries, let's look
at them in greater detail so as to grasp the implications of the deal.
The Convention stipulates that relations between littoral states shall be based on
principles of national sovereignty, territorial integrity, equality among members, non-use of
threat of force (it was only 17 years ago that Azerbaijan and Iran almost started a full-blown
naval war over contested fields) and non-intervention.
The military-related clauses of the document can be considered a net diplomatic success for
the Russian Federation as it prohibits the physical presence of any third-party armed forces,
along with banning the provision of a member state's territory to acts of aggression against
any other littoral state. Since Russia is by far the most power nation in terms of both general
military clout and military presence around the Caspian, this will placate Russian fears about
any potential US (or other) encroachment in the area.
Then there's energy... Although the Convention establishes a general legal framework for
territorial disputes to be solved, it refrains from any particularities. Therefore prolonged
negotiations are to be expected with regard to many disputed oilfields, stemming predominantly
from Irani and Azerbaijani claims . Iran advocated throughout the entire negotiation process an
egalitarian approach to delimiting the seabed (each nation would get 20% of the coast), running
counter the other countries' aspirations. The things is that when Russia concluded its seabed
delimitation agreements with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in 2001 and 2003, respectively, the
parties split their parts using the median line. Point 8.1. effectively keeps the delimitation
task in the hands of relevant governments, thereby providing a very modest boost to the
demarcation of the Southern Caspian (the Northern part is fully delimited).
There are two main territorial conflicts to be settled – the Irani-Azerbaijani and the
Azerbaijani-Turkmen disputes. The row between Baku and Teheran revolves around the
Araz-Alov-Sharg field (discovered in 1985-1987 by Soviet geologists), the reserves of which are
estimated at 300 million tons of oil and 395 BCm of natural gas. Even though the field is only
90 kilometers away from Baku and should seemingly be under Azerbaijan's grip, if one is to draw
a straight line from the Azerbaijani-Irani border most of the field ought to be allotted to
Iran (the median would keep most of it in Azerbaijan). As those old enough to remember the 2001
naval ship hostilities would attest, it does matter at what angle the final line is drawn.
The Serdar/Kapaz field (estimated to contain 50 million tons of oil) is the bone of
contention between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Considered to be an extension of Azerbaijan's
main oil-producing unit, the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field, Baku sees it as an indispensable
element in its quest to mitigate decreasing oil output numbers. Geographically, Serdar/Kapaz is
closer to Turkmenistan, yet here too Azerbaijan might come out the ultimate winner. The
Apsheron peninsula stretches out some 60km into the Caspian Sea, in effect extending
Azerbaijan's geographical reach. Absent previous demarcation agreements between Baku and
Ashgabat, the settlement will once again boil down to getting the angles right, as in the case
of Araz-Alov-Sharg. However, it must be said that a resolution might come about as a by-product
of new gas endeavors.
Clause 14, dealing with laying subsea pipelines and cables, is the one most coveted by
energy analysts , since it has the potential to significantly alter Europe's gas supply
options.
According to point 14.2., all parties have the right to construct subsea pipelines given
that they comply with environmental standards (which are particularly strict in the Caspian
Sea). With no further caveat included, some analysts might be tempted to think that Russia will
inevitably use the "environmental protection" card when trying to stop the construction of the
Trans-Caspian pipeline (TCP) from Turkmenistan, a pipeline it spent many years to halt .
Under current circumstances, when US-Russian relations falling ever deeper into an
insurmountable ditch, Moscow's decision to allow for the construction of the mightily
Washington-backed TCP to take place might be perceived as a massive omission.
Since the Turkmen gas is unlikely to find demand in Azerbaijan or Turkey, it would need to
take the whole route via the South Caucasus Pipeline, TANAP and TAP. Merely the transportation
tariffs from these pipelines would render any transportation economically unviable unless
European gas prices rise substantially to levels above $300/MCm. Moreover, the estimated cost
of building the subsea TCP of $2 billion is a disabling burden for either Türkmengaz or
SOCAR. Thus, allowing the construction of Trans Caspian gas pipelines might be a brilliant ruse
from the Russians – cognizant of all the deficiencies above, they can wield it as a sign
of good will in their never-ending negotiations with the European the economics for supplying
gas to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor are far from being Union.
This being said, there are natural impediments to see the TCP implemented anytime soon.
Azerbaijan might be interested in getting transit fees for Turkmen natural gas, yet it lacks
the required infrastructure to include the above volumes in its traditional conduit via
Turkey.
All in all, the Caspian convention is a good basis for further negotiations, even though it
falls short of being an all-encompassing legal framework. Territorial disputes will most likely
remain frozen for quite some time and no new gas pipeline projects will see the light of day
unless market conditions change.
Patient Observer says:
August 6, 2018 at 1:46 pmPublic opinion polling suggests that many Americans would
not think twice if there were a great many casualties against evildoers. For example, a
2017 survey found that 60 percent of Americans would support a nuclear attack on Iran that
would kill 20 million civilians, to prevent an invasion that might kill 20,000 American
soldiers.
"We were not surprised by the finding that most Americans place a higher
value on the life of an American soldier than the life of a foreign noncombatant.
What was surprising, however, was the radical extent of that preference.
Our experiments suggest that the majority of Americans find a 1:100 risk ratio
to be morally acceptable. They were willing to kill 2 million Iranian civilians to
save 20,000 U.S. soldiers. One respondent who approved of the conventional
air strike that killed 100,000 Iranian civilians candidly expressed even more
extreme
preferences regarding proportionality and risk ratios, while displacing
U.S. responsibility for the attack onto the Iranian people: "I would sacrifice
1 million enemies versus 1 of our military. Their choice, their death."
But the state of American 'journalism' is such that the media must portray America as
winning, and will not acknowledge catastrophe until major damage has already been done, because
it is patriotic to report on American success.
FYI Officials from three leading US groups that support increased exports of US LNG separately
addressed concerns on Aug. 3 over the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's announcement that
tariffs ranging 5-25% will be imposed on US LNG.
"China's retaliation will hit America's energy industry particularly hard," said
American Petroleum Institute Vice-Pres. for Regulatory and Economic Policy Kyle Isakower.
"American oil and gas already hit by US tariffs on industrial products and specialty steel
essential to our industry will now be faced with Chinese tariffs on critical US exports,
affecting American jobs that rely directly and indirectly on the energy industry."
August 5, 2018 at 7:17 pm Oh, look; Ukraine already is down to about half the gas in
storage that it will need for winter. Turning to the west certainly made it
'energy-independent' at least to the extent that the west must 'lend' it money to buy gas which
is reverse-flowed from eastern-European countries so that all the Russian is squeezed out of
it, and it becomes European freedom gas. Nice work if you can get it, and since Ukraine will
not be able to pay it back, it becomes a gift! Why worry, as long as Uncle Sugar is paying the
bills?
Speaking of gas, once-bitten-twice-shy Bulgaria is eager to get a piece of the action,
signifying up front its willingness to tap into Turkish Stream for transit to Europe.
There seems to be a tremendously broad American – and western – assumption that
US production is going to 'soar' and continue to ramp ever upward. Is it? Bear in mind that
the USA's own consumption of natural gas is growing steadily, at least partly based on this
assumption that natural-gas bounty will just continue to increase. What if it doesn't? Then
America will have refashioned itself as another huge natural-gas market which has
insufficient domestic supply to sustain itself.
The headline is pure tabloid and not supported in the body of the article apart from
'opinions' by certain people or through use of qualifiers. This is not journalism .
Only further proof in my opinion that Euractiv has become part of the EU's unofficial
channels of hybrid warfare . Euractiv/Neuters has also expanded in to the Balkans to
provide 'services' in Croatia/Serbia etc. which just so happens to coincide with all the
shrill headlines about Russia 'influencing the Balkans' – which are of course BS. Just
look at the map. Short of Macedonia (not for long) and Serbia, they are all NATO
states . Russia only helps states who want to help themselves (Syria/Serbia – more
or less).
Not a shred of proof, nay evidence, that Germany is shifting away from NordStream II. FAKE
NUDES!
Ten years ago, in August 2008, Russia and Georgia went to war over South Ossetia, a small
separatist Georgian region which Moscow would later controversially recognise as independent,
in the face of international criticism.
Ten years later, Moscow has still not softened its position towards its neighbours and
its rift with the West has only deepened.
Russia launched armed action against Georgia to come to the rescue of South Ossetia, a
small pro-Russian separatist region where Tbilisi had begun a military operation. The Russian
army rapidly outnumbered the Georgian forces and threatened to take the country's
capital.
A peace treaty was finally hammered out by then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy that
led to the withdrawal of Russian forces. But Moscow recognised as independent the breakaway
regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where it has stationed a large military presence ever
since.
Russia demonstrated its military might over the five days and showed its readiness to
defend – by force, if necessary – its interests in the region it considers its
sphere of influence .
####
Well shove that in your pipe and smoke it!
Yet again, no attribution, no name. It smacks of a thinktank piece peddled through their
Slovak branch.
But this is how things work in the West. No-on is ordered on pain of death to produce
certain items, but is is made very clear that it is in their interests to do so, from
without & from within, but remember kids, it is voluntary ! Neither
self-censorship exists. Those in positions of influence may convince themselves, but for the
rest of the great unwashed, no so much. We've already seen the system fail and produce
not only BREXIT, but other referendums contrary to EU dogma. The evidence is all around us
and plain to see, but still the structures persist in the same old ways, which only bodes
ill. Apparently they still think the sheeple are too stupid to notice let alone act.
"... It looks as if Zuckerman's 'nightmare situation' has come about. I don't know that these were ever proven reserves, and in fact I have the impression that the supposed energy bounty of the Caspian did not turn out quite as imagined, but Washington once thought – not long ago, either – that it was imperative America controlled the Caspian region because it was about 'America's energy security'. Which is another way of saying 'America must have control over and access to every oil-producing region on the planet.' ..."
"... Richardson was correct, though, that Russia 'does not share America's values'. In fact, Americans do not share America's values, in the sense that most Americans by far would not support the actions of the Saudi military in Yemen, the clever false-flag operations of the White Helmets in Syria, the deliberate destabilization of Venezuela, regime-change operations to the right and left in order to obtain governments who will facilitate American commercial and political control, and many other things that official America considers just important tools in the American Global Dominance Toolbox. ..."
"... Washington has long nurtured the dream of being Europe's primary, if not only, energy supplier, and owning the Caspian (had the reserves expectations played out) would have brought them closer to their dream. ..."
The other backstory being that NATO wanted to stick its nose in the Caspian Sea, but has been
pushed out. Not sure exactly what the pretext was. I have a piece in VZGLIAD that explains the whole
thing, but I haven't worked through it yet, will probably do a piece on my own blog in the
near future. But I have a couple of other projects in the queue first.
Dick Cheney, among others, was convinced that the Caspian Basin holds massive deposits of oil
and gas and is strategically significant for that reason.
"Central Asian resources may revert back to the control of Russia or to a Russian led
alliance. This would be a nightmare situation. We had better wake up to the dangers or one
day the certainties on which we base our prosperity will be certainties no more. The
potential prize in oil and gas riches in the Caspian sea, valued up to $4 trillion, would
give Russia both wealth and strategic dominance. The potential economic rewards of Caspian
energy will draw in their train Western military forces to protect our investment if
necessary."
Mortimer Zuckerman
Editor, U.S. News and World Report
"This is about America's energy security. Its also about preventing strategic inroads
by those who don't share our values. We are trying to move these newly independent countries
toward the West. We would like to see them reliant on Western commercial and political
interests. We've made a substantial political investment in the Caspian and it's important
that both the pipeline map and the politics come out right."
Bill Richardson
Then-U.S. Secretary Energy (1998-2000)
It looks as if Zuckerman's 'nightmare situation' has come about. I don't know that these
were ever proven reserves, and in fact I have the impression that the supposed energy bounty
of the Caspian did not turn out quite as imagined, but Washington once thought – not
long ago, either – that it was imperative America controlled the Caspian region because
it was about 'America's energy security'. Which is another way of saying 'America must have
control over and access to every oil-producing region on the planet.'
Richardson was correct, though, that Russia 'does not share America's values'. In fact,
Americans do not share America's values, in the sense that most Americans by far would not
support the actions of the Saudi military in Yemen, the clever false-flag operations of the
White Helmets in Syria, the deliberate destabilization of Venezuela, regime-change operations
to the right and left in order to obtain governments who will facilitate American commercial
and political control, and many other things that official America considers just important
tools in the American Global Dominance Toolbox.
Washington has long nurtured the dream of being Europe's primary, if not only, energy
supplier, and owning the Caspian (had the reserves expectations played out) would have
brought them closer to their dream. A pipeline network would have carried Caspian oil and gas
to Europe. Agreement among the Caspian nations was most definitely not in American interests,
and if you dig you will probably find American interventions to prevent that from coming
about.
Analysts told RT that what Khamenei said is not really surprising given the worsening
economic situation inside the country after the relations with the US went on a downward
spiral. The supreme leader has been trying to keep Iranian society balanced by taking a neutral
position between the liberal and conservative parts of the establishment. Now the former,
including President Hassan Rouhani, are finding themselves in a weaker position, according to
Irina Fedorova from the Russian Academy of Sciences' Center for Middle Eastern Studies.
"The Ayatollah has needed to explain who is to blame for the current situation, to prop
up his regime," Fedorova told RT. She said that "the opponents of the
conservatives," and Rouhani in particular, who supported the JCPOA, will fall victims of
this approach. But it will not lead to his resignation, the researcher noted. However, this
means the conservatives' positions, such as those of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are to
strengthen significantly.
The statement may also mean a reshuffling of the political elite as well as some economic
changes, Jamal Wakeem, professor of history and international relations at Lebanese University
in Beirut, told RT. He said that "reformists" and those who pressed for the deals with
the West are to be targeted, while the leadership is going to seek alternatives to the West,
including a partnership with Russia and China.
The US reinstated certain economic sanctions against Iran last week, with President Trump
promising more to come in November. The restrictive measures had been lifted under the historic
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but Washington unilaterally withdrew from the
landmark deal despite international condemnation, including from its EU allies. The 2015
agreement placed tight controls on Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of
international sanctions. Iran's commitment has been confirmed by the IAEA since then.
Tehran has repeatedly blasted the US for the move, vowing to restart its nuclear program in
retaliation against any foreign restrictions. While the US has been pressing its allies to
completely refuse Iranian oil imports, the Islamic Republic has threatened to close the Strait
of Hormuz, effectively blocking all the oil shipments from the Persian Gulf, should they accede
to American demands.
The row between the US and Iran escalated last month, when their respective leadership
exchanged a barrage of threats. Back then, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that a
conflict with Iran would be "mother of all wars," provoking Trump's harsh response
when he promised "consequences the likes of which few have ever suffered before."
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France must be kicking themselves for listening to the US. At this rate, China/Russia will
take all the oil business, leaving Western companies sitting on the sidelines. On the other
hand, I wonder if US O&G companies are waiting for other Western competitors to go
bankrupt.
Uncoy @22:
US sanctions have already failed. Other nations will give lip service, then turn around to
continue on whatever they were doing.
Washington cannot dictate trade rules to others, Germany's economy minister said, adding
that his country should be more assertive and defy American sanctions – particularly
by investing more in Iran.
"We don't let Washington dictate [their will] on trade relations with other countries,"
German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told Bild newspaper on Saturday. He said the US
sanctions on Iran are one instance in which America's neglect of its partners are clearly
shown.[.]
Only 1/3 of US debt is owed to foreigners and that is denominated in their own currency.
They just print whatever is due.
A country with the land and natural resources the US has to go along with with its
agricultural, human and military capital can never go bankrupt, especially when they control
the debt collectors
As for Germany they are an occupied country, as are many countries. Between the military
bases and CIA controlled NGO's they dance to whatever musuc is played. Some squawking is
permitted for appearances sake so people can maintain their illusions of nationalist
control.
I dont rule out a major financial adverse event in the US (and global) soon so the elite
can profit off the collapse and shrink the wealth of the bottom 90%, but that wont affect
much at all and much of the world will suffer in much the same way
When one looks at the major financial disasters over the last century, many seem to come
in the 8th-9th year of the decade. After the elections we should see a great fall as bubbles
are burst and the 17 trillion dollar + investment firms that maintain liquidity will swoop in
and buy low. This time around the banks wont need a government bail out as the laws have
authorized them to seize deposits like what was done in Greece.
Trump speaks at Washington rally against the Iran deal back in September 2015. Credit:
Olivier Douliery/Sipa USA/Newscom Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson
chide Trump for his dangerous Iran obsession:
The United States' treatment of Iran as a serious strategic competitor is deeply
illogical. Iran imperils no core U.S. interests.
Trump's Iran obsession is probably the most conventional part of his foreign policy and it
is also the most irrational. The president's reflexive hostility to Iran is one of the few
constants in his view of the world, and it is one that aligns him most closely with his party's
hawks and parts of the foreign policy establishment. This has been clear for several years ever
since
Trump declared his
opposition to thenuclear
deal and surrounded
himself with hard-liners .
The Iran obsession is among the worst aspects of Trump's presidency, but it is also one of the
least surprising. Over the last eighteen months, Trump's Iran obsession has become more of a
derangement ,
and it is putting the U.S. and Iran on a collision course at the expense of our relations with
many other states and our own economic interests. The risk of unnecessary war continues to rise
because the president and his allies insist on making maximalist demands of Iran while imposing
stringent sanctions on the country without justification.
As Simon and Stevenson capably explain, there is no valid reason to view Iran as a major
threat to the U.S. Contrary to the fevered warnings about Iranian "expansionism," Iranian
military power in the region is quite limited:
Yet Iran's foreign policy has evolved essentially on the basis of opportunistic realism
rather than especially aggressive revisionism, and, as noted, it has a sparse military
presence in the region.
There is certainly no reason for our government to treat Iran as if it were a major
competitor. Our government's fixation on Iran as the source of all the region's problems
exaggerates Iran's influence and puts the U.S. at odds with a regional power whose interests
are sometimes aligned with our own. The obsession simply makes no sense:
Casting Iran as a major strategic rival simply doesn't make sense in terms of traditional
international relations considerations such as threat- and power-balancing.
The authors list a number of causes for the unwarranted obsession with Iran, including
"pro-Israel" influence and the influence of the Saudis and Emiratis in Washington, and I agree
with them. Our political leaders' enthusiasm for engaging in threat inflation and credulously
accepting the threat inflation of others would has to figure prominently in any explanation as
well. Obsessing over a non-existent Iranian threat to U.S. interests obviously has nothing to
do with American security, and it represents an unhealthy subordination of American interests
to those of its reckless regional clients. Indulging those clients in their paranoia about Iran
will only stoke more regional conflicts and ensure that the U.S. becomes more deeply involved
in those wars, and the result will be greater costs for the U.S. and greater turmoil,
instability, and loss of life throughout the region.
Obama's Yemen obsession is probably the most conventional part of his foreign policy and it
is also the most irrational.
Cluster bombs, drone strikes, covert kill teams and, most importantly, the backing for
Saudi Arabia and the UAE to cross the blood-red line and commence an aggressive illegal
bombing campaign, invasion and occupation of Yemeni territory did not start with Trump.
Direct participation of US military logistics personnel and US military assets in this
military aggression – while other US forces operate in the same territory under the
"separate but equal" Authorization To Use Military Force – did not start with
Trump.
Trump might apply his Reverse Midas Touch to this aspect of Obama's legacy as well, but
just because Obama manufactured another transient executive "achievement" in JCOPA does not
mean that his policy with respect to Yemen was any more irrational than Trump's policy
towards Iran, or that Obama's willingness to hire out US military forces to support Saudi
aggression for 100 billion dollars in blood money is any less venal, corrupt and despicable
than Trump's willingness to do the same.
Mattis didn't become fixated on Iran when he joined the Trump administration either,
although he might just be blaming – in the absence of conclusive evidence – Iran
today for the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing targeting Reagan's negligent use of the Marine
Corps. That is even less of a defensible foundation for foreign policy and military
aggression that profiteering.
It is a good guess that Obama's obsession with Yemen was rooted in printer cartridges,
shoe bombs, and the fear to have any terrorist attack "succeed". For Obama & Co. the fear
of the Next Big Blowback led them to Yemen. It would appear that Pence has supplied the Trump
administration with a Grand Unified Theory that all campaigns in the Great War On Terror
ultimately lead to Tehran – or the Trump administration made him their willing
mouthpiece.
Pence is so desperate to connect terrorism to Iran that he has to reach back almost 40yrs to
pin an at best Hezbollah pre-cursor organization on them. Isn't it more telling that
Hezbollah has avoided attacking U.S. troops during their entire existence? Pence doesn't seem
alarmed about the 3,000+ Americans who died on U.S. soil in NYC that we can attribute to the
Saudis and their cohorts.
BTW the Khobar tower bombings was Al Qaeda. The Saudis extracted confessions in their
torture chambers. There was no corroborating evidence that it was a branch of Hezbollah.
This is ,of course, hypothesis by Eric Zuesse, and the idea that the USA elite decided to
abandon EU elite is somewhat questionable, but some of his consideration are interesting...
Notable quotes:
"... Yeah, its the defense contractors. It has nothing to do with the zillions of cars that clog every fucking freeway in this country every morning and every evening, 7 days a week. Its not the assholes cruising around in monster trucks alone, just to show off their stupid trucks. It has nothing to do with the the zillions of jets screaming through the skies carry all those fat assholes to meetings all over the world for no reason. It has nothing to do with the billions of barrels of oil that come to the US on tankers as long as city blocks filled constantly day and night. ..."
The following is entirely from open online sources that I have been finding to be
trustworthy on these matters in the past. These sources will be linked-to here; none of this
information is secret, even though some details in my resulting analysis of it will be entirely
new.
It explains how and why the bottom-line difference between Donald Trump and Barack Obama,
regarding US national security policies, turns out to be their different respective estimations
of the biggest danger threatening the maintenance of the US dollar as the world's leading or
reserve currency. This has been the overriding foreign-policy concern for both Presidents .
Obama placed as being the top threat to the dollar, a breakaway of the EU (America's largest
market both for exports and for imports) from alliance with the United States. He was
internationally a Europhile. Trump, however, places as being the top threat to the dollar, a
breakaway of Saudi Arabia and of the other Gulf Arab oil monarchies from the U.S. Trump is
internationally a Sunni-phile: specifically a protector of fundamentalist Sunni monarchs -- but
especially of the Sauds themselves --
and they hate Shia and especially the
main Shia nation, Iran .
Here's how that change, to Saudi Arabia as being America's main ally, has happened --
actually it's a culmination of decades. Trump is merely the latest part of that process of
change. Here is from the US State Department's official
historian , regarding this history:
By the 1960s, a surplus of US dollars caused by foreign aid, military spending, and
foreign investment threatened this system [the FDR-established 1944 Bretton Woods gold-based US dollar as
the world's reserve currency ], as the United States did not have enough gold to cover
the volume of dollars in worldwide circulation at the rate of $35 per ounce; as a result, the
dollar was overvalued. Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson adopted a series of
measures to support the dollar and sustain Bretton Woods: foreign investment disincentives;
restrictions on foreign lending; efforts to stem the official outflow of dollars;
international monetary reform; and cooperation with other countries. Nothing worked.
Meanwhile, traders in foreign exchange markets, believing that the dollar's overvaluation
would one day compel the US government to devalue it, proved increasingly inclined to sell
dollars. This resulted in periodic runs on the dollar.
It was just such a run on the dollar, along with mounting evidence that the overvalued
dollar was undermining the nation's foreign trading position, which prompted President
Richard M. Nixon to act, on August 13, 1971 [to end the convertibility of dollars to
gold].
When Nixon ended
the gold-basis of the dollar and then in 1974 secretly switched to the current oil-basis,
this transformation of the dollar's backing, from gold to oil, was intended to enable the
debt-financing (as opposed to the tax-financing, which is less acceptable to voters) of
whatever military expenditure would be necessary in order to satisfy the profit-needs of
Lockheed Corporation and of the other US manufacturers whose only markets are the US Government
and its allied governments, as well as of US extractive industries such as oil and mining
firms, which rely heavily upon access to foreign natural resources, as well as of Wall Street
and its need for selling debt and keeping interest-rates down (and stock-prices -- and
therefore aristocrats' wealth -- high and rtising).
This new system didn't only supply a constant flow of Saudi tax-money to the US Government;
it supplied a constant flow of new sales-orders and profits to the military firms that were
increasingly coming to control the US Government -- for the benefit of both aristocracies: the
Sauds, and America's billionaires.
That was near the end of the FDR-produced 37-year period of US democratic leadership of the
world, the era that had started at Bretton Woods in 1944. It came crashing to an end not in
1974 (which was step two after the 1971 step one had ended the 1944 system) but on the day when
Ronald Reagan entered the White House in 1981. The shockingly sudden ascent, from that moment
on, of US federal Government debt (to be paid-off by future generations instead of by current
taxpayers) is shown, right here, in a graph
of "US Federal Debt as Percent of GDP, 1940-2015" , where you can see that the debt had
peaked above 90% of GDP late in WW II between 1944-1948 , and then plunged during Bretton
Woods, but in 1981 it started ascending yet again, until reaching that WW II peak for a second
time, as it has been ever since 2010 , when Obama bailed-out the mega-banks and their
mega-clients, but didn't bail out the American public, whose finances had been destroyed by
those banksters' frauds, which Obama refused to prosecute; and, so, economic inequality in
America got even more extreme after the 2008 George W. Bush crash, instead of less extreme
afterward (as had always happened in the past).
Above 90% debt/GDP during and immediately following WW II was sound policy, but America's
going again above 90% since 2010 has reflected simply an aristocratic heist of America, for
only the aristocracy's benefit -- all of the benefits going only to the super-rich.
Another, and
more-current US graph shows that, as of the first quarter of 2018, this percentage
(debt/GDP) is, yet again, back now to its previous all-time record high of 105-120%%, which had
been reached only in 1945-1947 (when it was justified by the war).
But can the US Government's extreme misallocation of wealth, from the public to the
insiders, continue without turning this country into a much bigger version of today's Greece?
More and more people around the world are worrying about that. Of course, Greece didn't have
the world's reserve currency, but what would happen to the net worths of America's billionaires
if billionaires worldwide were to lose faith in the dollar? Consequently, there's intensified
Presidential worrying about how much longer foreign investors will continue to trust the
oil-based dollar.
America's political class now have two competing ideas to deal with this danger , Obama's
versus Trump's, both being about how to preserve the dollar in a way that best serves the needs
of 'defense' contractors, extractive firms, and Wall Street. Obama chose Europe (America's
largest market) as America's chief ally (he was Euro-centric against Russia); Trump chose the
owner of Saudi Arabia (he's Saudi-Israeli centric against Iran) -- that's the world's largest
weapons-purchaser, as well as the world's largest producer of oil (as well as the largest
lobbies) .
The Saudi King owns Saudi Arabia, including the world's largest and most valuable oil
company, Aramco, whose oil is the "sweetest" -- the least expensive to extract and refine --
and is also the most abundant, in all of the world, and so he can sell petroleum at a profit
even when his competitors cannot. Oil-prices that are so low as to cause economic losses for
other oil companies, can still be generating profits -- albeit lowered ones -- for King Saud;
and this is the reason why his decisions determine how much the global oil-spigot will be
turned on, and how low the global oil-price will be, at any given time. He controls the value
of the US dollar. He controls it far more directly, and far more effectively, than the EU can.
It would be like, under the old FDR-era Bretton Woods system, controlling the exchange-rates of
the dollar, by raising or lowering the amount of gold produced. But this is liquid gold, and
King Saud determines its price.
Furthermore, King Saud also leads the Gulf Cooperation Council of all other Arab oil
monarchs, such as those who own UAE -- all of them are likewise US allies and major
weapons-buyers.
In an extraordinarily fine recent article by Pepe Escobar at Asia Times, "Oil
and gas geopolitics: no shelter from the storm" , he quotes from his not-for-attribution
interviews with "EU diplomats," and reports:
After the Trump administration's unilateral pull-out from the Iran nuclear deal, known as
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), European Union diplomats in Brussels, off the
record, and still in shock, admit that they blundered by not "configuring the eurozone as
distinct and separate to the dollar hegemony". Now they may be made to pay the price of their
impotence via their "outlawed" trade with Iran.
As admitted, never on the record, by experts in Brussels; the EU has got to reevaluate its
strategic alliance with an essentially energy independent US, as "we are risking all our
energy resources over their Halford Mackinder geopolitical analysis that they must break up
[the alliance between] Russia and China."
That's a direct reference to the late Mackinder epigone Zbigniew "Grand Chessboard"
Brzezinski, who died dreaming of turning China against Russia.
In Brussels, there's increased recognition that US pressure on Iran, Russia and China is
out of geopolitical fear the entire Eurasian land mass, organized as a super-trading bloc via
the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO), [and] the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), is
slipping away from Washington's influence.
This analysis gets closer to how the three key nodes of 21st century Eurasia integration
-- Russia, China and Iran -- have identified the key issue; both the euro and the yuan must
bypass the petrodollar, the ideal means, as the Chinese stress, to "end the oscillation
between strong and weak dollar cycles, which has been so profitable for US financial
institutions, but lethal to emerging markets."
It's also no secret among Persian Gulf traders that in the -- hopefully unlikely -- event
of a US-Saudi-Israeli war in Southwest Asia against Iran, a real scenario war-gamed by the
Pentagon would be "the destruction of oil wells in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council]. The
Strait of Hormuz does not have to be blocked, as destroying the oil wells would be far more
effective."
And what the potential loss of over 20% of the world's oil supply would mean is
terrifying; the implosion, with unforeseen consequences, of the quadrillion derivatives
pyramid, and consequentially [consequently] of the entire Western financial casino
superstructure.
In other words: it's not the 'threat' that perhaps, some day, Iran will have nuclear
warheads, that is actually driving Trump's concern here (despite what Israel's concerns are
about that matter), but instead, it is his concerns about Iran's missiles, which constitute the
delivery-system for any Iranian warheads: that their flight-range be short enough so that the Sauds will be
outside their range . (The main way Iran intends to respond to an invasion backed by the
US, is to attack Saudi Arabia -- Iran's leaders know that the US Government is more dependent
upon the Sauds than upon Israel -- so, Iran's top targets would be Saudi capital Riyadh, and
also the Ghawar oil field, which holds over half of Saudi oil. If US bases have been used in
the invasion, then all US bases in the Middle East are also be within the range
of Iran's missiles and therefore would also probably be targeted.)
Obama's deal with Iran had focused solely upon preventing Iran from developing nuclear
warheads -- which Obama perhaps thought (mistakenly) would dampen Israel's (and its billionaire
US financial backers') ardor for the US to conquer Iran. Israel had publicly said that their
concern was Iran's possibility to become a nuclear power like Israel became; those possible
future warheads were supposed to be the issue; but, apparently, that wasn't actually the issue
which really drove Israel. Obama seems to have thought that it was, but it wasn't, actually.
Israel, like the Sauds, want Iran conquered. Simple. The nuclear matter was more an excuse than
an explanation.
With Trump now in the White House, overwhelmingly by money from the Israel lobbies (proxies
also for the Sauds) -- and with no equivalently organized Jewish opposition to the pro -Israel
lobbies (and so in the United States, for a person to be anti-Israel is viewed as being
anti-Semitic, which is not at all true, but Israel's lies say it's true and many Americans
unfortunately believe it) -- Trump has not only the Sauds and their allies requiring him to be
against Iran and its allies, but he has also got this pressure coming from Israel: both the
Big-Oil and the Jewish lobbies drive him. Unlike Obama, who wasn't as indebted to the Jewish
lobbies, Trump needs to walk the plank for both the Sauds and Israel.
In other words: Trump aims to keep the dollar as the reserve currency by suppressing not
only China but also the two main competitors of King Saud: Iran and Russia. That's why
America's main 'enemies' now are those three countries and their respective allies.
Obama was likewise targeting them, but in a different priority-order , with Russia being the
main one (thus Obama's takeover
of Ukraine in February 2014 turning it against Russia, next door ); and that difference was
due to Obama's desire to be favorably viewed by the residents in America's biggest export and
import market, the EU, and so his bringing another member (Ukraine) into the EU (which still
hasn't yet been culminated).
Trump is instead building on his alliance with King Saud and the other GCC monarchs, a group
who can more directly cooperate to control the value of the US dollar than the EU can.
Furthermore, both conservative (including Orthodox) Jews in the United States, and also white
evangelical Protestants in the US, are strongly supportive of Israel, which likewise sides with
the Arab oil monarchs against Iran and its allies. Trump needs these people's votes.
Trump also sides with the Sauds against Canada. That's a matter which the theorists who
assert that Israel controls the US, instead of that the Sauds (allied with America's and
Israel's billionaires) control the US, ignore; they ignore whatever doesn't fit their theory.
Of course, a lot doesn't fit their theory (which equates "Jews" with "Israelis" and alleges
that "they" control the world), but people whose prejudices are that deep-seated, can't be
reached by any facts which contradict their self-defining prejudice. Since it defines
themselves, it's a part of them, and they can never deny it, because to do so would be to deny
who and what they are, and they refuse to change that. The Sauds control the dollar; Israel
does not, but Israel does the lobbying, and both the Sauds and Israel want Iran destroyed.
Trump gets this pressure not only from the billionaires but from his voters.
And, of course, Democratic Party billionaires push the narrative that Russia controls
America. It used to be the Republican Joseph R. McCarthy's accusation, that the "commies" had
"infiltrated" , especially at the State Department . So: Trump
kicked out Russia's diplomats, to satisfy those
neocons -- the neoconservatives of all Parties and persuasions, both conservative and
liberal.
To satisfy the Sauds, despite the EU, Trump has dumped the Iran deal . And he did it also to
satisfy Israel, the main US lobbyists for the Sauds. (Americans are far more sympathetic to
Jews than to Arabs; the Sauds are aware of this; Israel handles their front-office.) For Trump,
the Sauds are higher priority than Europe; even Israel (who are an expense instead of a
moneybag for the US Government) are higher priority than Europe. Both the Sauds and Israel
together are vastly higher. And the Sauds alone are higher priority for Trump than are even
Canada and Europe combined . Under Trump, anything will be done in order to keep the Sauds
and
their proxy-lobbyists (Israel) 'on America's side'.
Consequently, Trump's political base is mainly against Iran and for Israel, but Obama's was
mainly against Russia and for the EU. Obama's Democratic Party still are controlled by the same
billionaires as before; and, so, Democrats continue demonizing Russia, and are trying to make
as impossible as they can, any rapprochement with Russia -- and, therefore, they smear Trump
for anything he might try to do along those lines.
Both Obama and Trump have been aiming to extend America's aristocracy's dominance around the
world, but they employ different strategies toward that politically bipartisan
American-aristocratic objective: the US Government's global control, for the benefit of the US
aristocracy, at everyone else's expense. Obama and Trump were placed into the White House by
different groups of US billionaires, and each
nominee serves his/her respective sponsors , no public anywhere -- not even their voters'
welfare.
An analogous example is that, whereas Fox News, Forbes, National
Review, The Weekly Standard, American Spectator, Wall Street Journal, Investors Business Daily,
Breitbart News, InfoWars, Reuters, and AP , are propagandists for the Republican Party ; NPR,
CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, Mother Jones, The Atlantic, The New Republic, New Yorker, New York
Magazine, New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, Huffington Post, The Daily Beast , and
Salon , are propagandists for the Democratic Party ; but, they all draw their chief sponsors
from the same small list of donors who are America's billionaires, since these few people
control the top advertisers, investors, and charities, and thus control nearly all of the
nation's propaganda. The same people who control the Government control the public; but,
America isn't a one-Party dictatorship. America is, instead, a multi-Party dictatorship . And
this is how it
functions.
Trump cancelled the Iran deal because a different group of billionaires are now in control
of the White House, and of the rest of the US Government. Trump's group demonize especially
Iran; Obama's group demonize especially Russia. That's it, short. That's America's aristocratic
tug-of-war; but both sides of it are for invasion, and for war. Thus, we're in the condition of
'permanent war for permanent peace' -- to satisfy the military contractors and the billionaires
who control them. Any US President who would resist that, would invite assassination; but,
perhaps in Trump's case, impeachment, or other removal-from-office, would be likelier. In any
case, the sponsors need to be satisfied -- or else -- and Trump knows this.
Trump is doing what he thinks he has to be doing, for his own safety. He's just a figurehead
for a different faction of the US aristocracy , than Obama was. He's doing what he thinks he
needs to be doing, for his survival. Political leadership is an extremely dangerous business.
Trump is playing a slightly different game of it than Obama did, because he represents a
different faction than Obama did. These two factions of the US aristocracy are also
now battling each other for political control over Europe .
The US #1 objective is to protect US$ as the only one reserve currency that is the
foundation of US economic and military power as well as the US economic stability and
prosperity
Zionist Banking Mafia controls US$ and both US major political Parties
The USA can accomplish its goals only by destroying China, Russia, and Iran. The USA
cannot achieve its goals short of having a major military confrontation with China. Russia
is only one power that can provide/satisfy China with raw materials including oil &
gas. However, politically Trump is locked in a corner by the Democratic Party and it's
globalists allies who are trying to destroy Russia due to it's "misguided" policies in
Syria and Iran.
China understands the game and does it's best to confront America. Time is on China's
side. Very shortly China will move it's military to Iran and Syria with Turkey becoming a
serious US headache.
The Bottom Line
Trump and its policies have no chance to succeed neither inside nor outside the USA. The
USA has less than 3-5 years to maintain the present status quo.
Yeah, its the defense contractors. It has nothing to do with the zillions of cars that clog every fucking freeway in this
country every morning and every evening, 7 days a week. Its not the assholes cruising around
in monster trucks alone, just to show off their stupid trucks. It has nothing to do with the
the zillions of jets screaming through the skies carry all those fat assholes to meetings all
over the world for no reason. It has nothing to do with the billions of barrels of oil that
come to the US on tankers as long as city blocks filled constantly day and night.
Its not that, its Lockheed selling them airplanes. Thats how the sand niggers got so much
US money, Lockheed.
What a fucking conspiratorial ass-swipe this guy is.
Eric Zeusse ranks in popularity right along the Gatestone Institute - though Eric may just
be ignorant and opinionated whilst Gatestone is an affirmative disinformation propaganda
organ, both are equally annoying to read. I just came for the comments :).
+1. Eric Zuesse is part-and-parcel of the agenda that the Gatestone Institute
espouses.
Eric Zuesse's real agenda can be revealed by his position on 9/11 (see second link below).
He also blames Obama for everything (he shifts the blame away from Israel onto any other
party which could be blamed due to either direct or indirect ties)
Here is Eric Zuesse in his own words:
Notice the absence of Israel/Zionism
Historic New Harpers Article Exposes Who Controls America
Posted on December 17, 2015 by Eric Zuesse.
"The fundamentalist-Sunni royal family of the Sauds have bought the highest levels of the
U.S. government in order to control U.S. foreign policies, especially the ongoing wars to
take down the governments of Iraq, Libya, Syria, and ultimately (they hope) of Russia itself,
which latter nation has allied itself instead with Shia countries. The controlling entities
behind American foreign policies since at least the late 1970s have been the Saud family and
the Sauds' subordinate Arabic aristocracies, which are the ones in Qatar (the al-Thanis),
Kuwait (the al-Sabahs), Turkey (the Turkish Erdoğans, a new royalty), and UAE (its six
royal families: the main one, the al-Nahyans in Abu Dhabi; the other five: the al-Maktoums in
Dubai, al-Qasimis in Sharjah, al-Nuaimis in Ajman, al-Mualla Ums in Quwain, and al-Sharqis in
Fujairah). Other Saudi-dominated nations -- though they're not oil-rich (more like Turkey in
this regard) -- are Pakistan and Afghanistan."
". But, perhaps, one can safely say that the alliance between the U.S. aristocracy and the
royal Sauds, is emerging as a global dictatorship, a dictatorial type of world government.
Because, clearly: those two aristocraciues have been, to a large extent, ruling the world
together, for several decades now. From their perspective, jihadists are themselves a weapon,
not merely a political nuisance.
This is a more realistic explanation of America's decades-long catastrophic failures to
make significant progress in eliminating even a single one of the numerous jihadist groups
around the world: that's how things have been planned to be. It's not just 'intelligence
errors' or 'not being tough enough.' Those 'explanations' are just cover-stories, propaganda,
PR from the aristocrats. It's skillful 'crowd control': keeping the people in their 'proper'
places."
9/11: Israel Didn't Do It; The Plan Was Co-Led by U.S. & Saud Governments
By Eric Zuesse
March 15, 2018
"9/11 was a well-planned operation, whatever it was. Substantial money paid for it, but
little if any of that came from either Iran or Israel. It all came from
fundamentalist-Sunnis.
And, if all of the money was fundamentalist-Sunni, then the only non-Sunni people who
could have been involved in planning the operation would have been George W. Bush and his
friends
The problem certainly isn't Jews nor Muslims. The problem is the aristocracy, which
controls Saudi Arabia, and the aristocracy which controls Israel, and the aristocracy which
controls America. The victim is the public, and the victimizer is the aristocracy. It's not
just 9/11."
Obama's Nazis
Posted on August 17, 2014 by Eric Zuesse.
(Zuesse's obsession with the word nazis or Nazis)
"What Obama has done and is doing in Ukraine is historic, like what Adolf Hitler did, and
like what Slobodan Milosevic* did, and like other racist fascists have done; and he, and we
Americans (if we as a nation continue accepting this), will be remembered for it, like they
and their countries were. Evil on this scale cannot be forgotten. No matter how solidly the
American "news" media hide this history, it is already solidly documented for the history
books. Obama will be remembered as the worst President in U.S. history, just as the
racist-fascist or 'nazi' leaders of other countries are."
Jewish Billionaire Finances Ukraine's Aydar SS Nazi Troops
Posted on April 7, 2015 by Eric Zuesse.
"The hyper-nationalist Ukrainian-Israeli billionaire Ihor Kolomoysky, a friend of the
Obama White House and employer of Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden, is a major donor to far-right
Ukrainian causes. He sides with the followers of Stepan Bandera, the pro-Nazi Ukrainian
leader whom Hitler ditched when Bandera made clear that he wanted Ukraine to be nazi but
independent of Germany's Nazi Party. Briefly, Bandera's #2 in command, Yaroslav Stetsko, led
nazi Ukraine, and approved the slaughter of thousands of Jews there."
"Zuesse is pushing Zionist lies. One of the links in the article goes to a Reuters story,
"Exclusive – Over 100 Russian soldiers killed in single Ukraine battle – Russian
rights activists," that claims to get its info from the "Russian presidential human rights
council."
If you want to read more lies by Zuesse, go to this "AMAZON" link to read reviews of his
book, "Iraq War: The Truth," in which Zuesse claims that GW Bush invaded Iraq to thank Jesus
for his alcohol and drug addiction cure and to neuter the International Criminal Court???
There is one comment lavishing praise on Zuesse's book about the Iraq War by David
Swanson, another Zionist tool and BS artist, who's been outed in the past by the blog,
"American Everyman."
See how fast the internet warriors are to claim the article is rubbish, and not reflecting
reality. No argument to back up their propaganda, but that's not important. Must be
depressing running the Sunday evening shift in the cubicle farm; all the boys in their neatly
pressed uniforms, clicking away to keep us safe from democracy. Well done lads, another day
keeping the evil Russians /Iranians at bay.
I actually find it interesting to see what shakes the foundations, and this article seems
to be something that they don't like, so probably worth a re-read just to get all the
nuances. Of course, the author suggesting that it is not Jews running America will get short
shrift from some commenters, but it is certainly interesting to have pointed out, finally,
that Israel is a net drain, and Saudi Arabia an enormous gain for the US. We always say to
follow the money, and whilst Israel is good profit for the MIC, Saudi Arabia IS the
petrodollar system - mustn't forget that. No oil in Saudi Arabia, no petrodollar. I wonder
how long they have left until it's all gone? That would probably be the over-riding factor in
deciding war with Iran.
I always wondered why the EU did nit make bigger efforts to replace the petrodollar with
the petroeuro but nobody wants to end up as Ghadaffi or Saddam Hussein who threatened to do
just that. Iran has also repeatedly threaten to that. Also Putin has recently said that
Russia wants to move away from the petrodollar. He must know that that is dangerous for one's
health so there must be some sort of alliance against the dollar being formed.
1. Iraq is run by a pro-Iran Shite government that tolerates the US occupation due to the
money provided. Before the USA attacks Iran, it should remove all its 10,000 troops and
10,000 civilians and close its massive embassy there and write that country off. Otherwise,
we'll have thousands of American POWs. Meanwhile, the Kurds will get crushed as the Turks and
Iraqis use the chaos to destroy them.
2. The oil-rich British puppet state of Kuwait is hated by all Iraqis and Iranians. If the
USA attacks Iran, one should expect Iranian and maybe Iraqi units crossing the border, while
Kuwait's army flees as expected. The USA keeps an army brigade there, but that may not be
enough to fend off an invasion, even with air superiority.
3. In past wars, civilian oil tankers did not sail through the straits. The insurers
(mostly Lloyds of London) and others announced they would not cover losses, and unionize ship
crews refused to enter the war zone. So even if the USA keeps the straits open, all that oil
will not flow forth.
4. Iran has a fortified island in the Gulf whose guns cannot be silenced with just air
power. A major amphibious landing is required to clear that island, and it will be bloody.
Note the ship channels in the map. Supertankers are huge, so while the Straits of Hormuz are
large, these big ships can only pass thru these two narrow channels, which are easily
blocked. Iran could park its own tankers in these channels to block them and hope the USA
foolishly sinks them, thus really blocking the entire channel.
These four issues are of more importance than air battles over Iran.
The US
Congress has revived
the so-called "NOPEC" bill
for countering OPEC and OPEC+.
Officially called the "
No
Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act
",
NOPEC is the definition of so-called
"lawfare" because it enables the US to extra-territorially impose its domestic legislation on
others by giving the government the right to sue OPEC and OPEC+ countries like Russia because of
their coordinated efforts to control oil prices.
Lawsuits, however, are
unenforceable
, which is why the targeted states'
refusal to abide by the US courts' likely predetermined judgement against them will probably be
used to trigger sanctions under the worst-case scenario, with this chain of events being catalyzed
in order to achieve several strategic objectives.
The first is that the US wants to break up the
Russian-Saudi
axis
that forms the core of OPEC+, which leads to the second goal of then unravelling the
entire OPEC structure and heralding in the free market liberalization of the global energy
industry.
This is decisively to the US' advantage as it seeks to become an energy-exporting superpower,
but it must neutralize its competition as much as possible before this happens, ergo the
declaration of economic-hybrid war through NOPEC. How it would work in practice is that the US
could threaten primary sanctions against the state companies involved in implementing OPEC and
OPEC+ agreements, after which these could then be selectively expanded to secondary sanctions
against other parties who continue to do business with them.
The purpose behind this approach is to intimidate the US' European vassals into
complying with its demands so as to make as much of the continent as possible a captive market of
America's energy exporters, which explains why Trump also wants to
scrap
LNG export licenses to the EU
.
If successful, this could further erode Europe's shrinking strategic independence and also
inflict long-term economic damage on the US' energy rivals that could then be exploited for
political purposes.
At the same time, America's recently unveiled "
Power
Africa
" initiative to
invest $175 billion
in gas projects
there could eventually see US companies in the emerging energy frontiers
of
Tanzania
,
Mozambique
,
and elsewhere become important suppliers to their country's Chinese rival, which could make
Beijing's access to energy even more dependent on American goodwill than ever before.
If looked at as the opening salvo of a global energy war being waged in parallel with the
trade
one
as opposed to being dismissed as the populist piece of legislation that it's being
portrayed as by the media,
NOPEC can be seen as the strategic superweapon that it
actually is,
with its ultimate effectiveness being dependent of course on whether it's
properly wielded by American decision makers.
It's too earlier to call it a game-changer because it hasn't even been promulgated
yet, but in the event that it ever is, then it might go down in history as the most impactful
energy-related development since OPEC, LNG, and fracking.
No way US can manipulate oil trade at this
point without hurting themselves or helping
their "enemies". Cause and effect, just think
it through.
The world needs energy, Russia has
energy...and a real surplus for sale. The US
is a net energy consumer with no surplus.
China needs energy in a big way. Trying to
cut off Russian and Iranian oil and trying to
blow up the Chinese economy are acts of war.
The West realizes there is no way they can
survive in their current status of moar with
that kind of competition out there. The
BRICST now constitute $17 trillion in
combined GDP. They have the energy sources
(Russia and Iran), they have the
manufacturing base (China), they have the
agricultural base (Russia, Brazil, South
Africa), and they have plenty of
customers.....even outside the BRICST union.
That is a formidable competitive force to
face when you are an economy structured on
infinite growth on a finite planet......that
you control less and less of each year.
War with Iran? I can not imagine a more foolish thing to do.
Of course they will rally with their own Countrymen, everyone hates the USA.
The World economy will be in a complete tailspin, the US will likely finally go broke over it
and chances are pretty good that Israel will be flattened and paved [one positive thing].
You fight Iran you fight China, you don't go messing with their road. Likely not bombs and
guns either most likely money, something America has not much of.
The faster America dumps this crazy fascination with the Jews the faster it will get it's
act together and become a Country again.
What can that possibly mean? We can bomb Iran back into the Stone Age, but Iran does not
need a modern economy or military to close Hormuz. All they need do is fire a few land-based
artillery and anti-ship missiles at a defenseless freighter or tanker. The insurance
companies would do the rest–remove all commercial shipping from the Persian and Oman
Gulf regions. That eliminates 20% of the World's oil supply, and it would collapse the
World's economy, including our own.
Asymmetric warfare would engulf the entire Middle East, including Israel, with its large
native Arab population and its occupation of large Arab populations in Gaza and the West
Bank.
Iran has the upper hand here. We need to be very careful.
Let's face it-when we impose sanctions on Iran, we are already at war with them. Just like we
are already at war with Russia. Imbeciles, all who run this country.
Oil is the vital strategic Western interest in the Persian Gulf. Yet a war with Iran
would imperil, not secure, that interest.
The American Empire's only strategic three letter word interest in the Middle East is O --
I –L.
The WASP/JEW ruling class of the American Empire and the Jew-controlled Neo-Conservative
faction in the Republican Party wants to elevate the three letter word J -- E –W to
paramount importance in the Middle East.
OIL and only OIL should guide the policy making considerations of the American Empire in
the Middle East.
"... Chart: Demonization of Russia centers on competition for oil and gas revenues. Pipelines to deliver oil and gas from the Middle East to Europe run through North Africa (Libya) and Syria and / or Turkey. These pipelines are substantially controlled by Western interests with imperial / colonial ties to the U.S., Britain and 'developed' Europe. Russian oil and gas did run through Ukraine, which is now negotiating to join NATO, or otherwise hits a NATO wall before entering Europe. ..."
The indictments are a major political story, but not for the reasons given in
mainstream press coverage. Once Mr. Mueller's indictment is understood to charge the
exploitation of existing social tensions (read it and decide for yourself), the FBI, which Mr.
Mueller directed from 2001 – 2013, is precisely the wrong entity to be rendering
judgment. The FBI has been America's political police since its founding in 1908. Early on
former FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover led legally dubious mass
arrests of American dissidents. He practically invented the slander of conflating
legitimate dissent with foreign agency. This is the institutional backdrop from which Mr.
Mueller proceeds.
In the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s the FBI's targets included the civil rights movement, the
antiwar movement, the American Indian Movement (AIM), the Black Panther Party and any other
political organization Mr. Hoover deemed a threat. The secret (hidden) FBI program COINTELPRO was intended to
subvert political outcomes outside of allegations of criminal wrongdoing and with no regard for the lives of its
targets . Throughout its history the FBI has sided with the powerful against the powerless
to maintain an unjust social order.
Robert Mueller became FBI Director only days before the attacks of September 11, 2001. One
of his first acts as Director was to arrest 1,000 persons without any evidence of criminal
wrongdoing. None of those arrested were ever charged in association with the attacks. The frame
in which the FBI acted -- to maintain political stability threatened by 'external' forces, was
ultimately chosen by the George W. Bush administration to justify its aggressive war against
Iraq.
It is the FBI's legacy of conflating dissent with being an agent of a foreign power that Mr.
Mueller's indictment most insidiously perpetuates. Russians are 'sowing discord,' and they are
using Americans to do so, goes the allegation. Black Lives Matter and Bernie Sanders are listed
in the indictment as roadblocks to the unfettered ascension of Hillary Clinton to the
presidency. Russians are sowing discord, therefore discord is both suspect in itself and
evidence of being a foreign agent.
The posture of simple reporting at work in the indictment -- that it isn't the FBI's fault
that the Russians (allegedly) inserted themselves into the electoral process, runs against the
history of the FBI's political role, the tilt used to craft criminal charges and the facts put
forward versus those put to the side. Given the political agendas of the other agencies that
the FBI joined through the charges, they are most certainly but a small piece of a larger
story.
In the aftermath of the indictments it's easy to forget that the Pentagon created the internet ,
that the NSA
has its tentacles in all of its major chokepoints, that the CIA has been heavily
involved in funding and 'using' social media toward its own ends and that the FBI is only
reputable in the present because of Americans' near-heroic ignorance of history. The claim that
the Russian operation was sophisticated because it had corporate form and function is countered
by the fact that it was, by the various agencies' own claims, ineffectual in changing the
outcome of the election.
I Have a List
While Robert Mueller was busy charging never-to-be-tried Russians with past crimes, Dan
Coats, the Director of National Intelligence,
declared that future Russian meddling has already cast a shadow over the integrity of the
2018 election. Why the Pentagon that created the internet, the NSA that has its tentacles in
all of its major chokepoints, the CIA that has been heavily involved in funding and 'using'
social media toward its own ends and the FBI that just landed such a glorious victory of good
over evil would be quivering puddles when it comes to precluding said meddling is a question
that needs to be asked.
The political frame being put forward is that only these agencies know if particular
elections and candidates have been tainted by meddling, therefore we need to trust them to tell
us which candidates were legitimately elected and which weren't. As generous as this offer
seems, wouldn't the creation of free and fair elections be a more direct route to achieving
this end? Put differently, who among those making the offer, whether personally or as
functionaries of their respective agencies, has a demonstrated history of supporting democratic
institutions?
The 2016 election was apparently a test case for posing these agencies as the meddling
police. By getting the bourgeois electocracy -- liberal Democrats, to agree that the loathsome
Trump is illegitimate, future candidates will be vetted by the CIA, NSA and FBI with impunity.
It's apparently only the pre-'discord, ' the social angst that the decade of the Great
Recession left as its residual, that shifts this generous offer from the deterministic to the
realm of the probable. The social conditions that led to the Great Recession and its aftermath
are entirely home grown.
More broadly, how do the government agencies and people that spent the better part of the
last century undermining democracy at home and abroad intend to stop 'Russian meddling?' If the
FBI couldn't disentangle home grown 'discord' from that allegedly exploited and exacerbated by
the Russians, isn't the likely intention to edit out all discord? And if fake news is a problem
in need of addressing, wouldn't the
New York Times and the Washington Post have
been shut down years ago?
The Great Satin (sic)
While Russia is the villain of the day, week and year due to alleged election 'meddling,'
the process of demonization that Russia has undergone has shown little variation from (alleged)
villain to villain. It is thanks to cable news and the 'newspaper of record' that the true
villainy of Vladimir Putin, Muammar Gadhafi, Saddam Hussein, Nicolas Maduro and the political
leadership of Iran has been revealed. In the face of such monsters, questions of motivation are
moot. Why wouldn't Mr. Putin 'sow discord?'
The question as yet unasked, and therefore unanswered is: is there something besides base
villainy that brought these national leaders, and the nations they lead, into the crosshairs of
America's fair and wise leadership? This question might forever go unanswered were it not for
the secret list from which their names were apparently drawn. No, not that secret list. This one is publicly available -- hiding in plain sight, as it
were. It is the list of proven oil reserves by country (below). This is no doubt unduly
reductive -- evil is as evil does, but read on.
The question of how such a list could divide so evenly between heroes and villains I leave
to the philosophers. On second thought, no I won't. The heroes are allies of a small cadre of
America's political and economic elite who have made themselves fabulously rich through the
alliances. The villains have oil, gas, pipelines and other resources that this elite wants.
Reductive, yes. But this simple list certainly appears to explain American foreign policy over
the last half-century quite well.
Source: gulfbusiness.com
It's almost as if America's love for humanity, as demonstrated through humanitarian
interventions, is determined by imperial competition for natural resources -- in this case oil
and gas. Amongst these countries, only one (Canada) is 'democratic' in the American sense of
being run by a small cadre of plutocrats who use the state to further their own interests. Two
-- Iraq and Libya, were recently reduced to rubble (for the sake of humanity) by the U.S.
Nigeria is being 'brought' under the control of AFRICOM. What remains are various and sundry
petro-states plus Venezuela and Russia.
Following the untimely death of Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, the horrible tyrant kept in office
via free
and fair elections , who used Venezuela's petro-dollars to feed, clothe and educate his
people and was in the process of creating a regional Left alliance to counter American abuse of
power, the CIA joined with local
plutocrats to overthrow his successor, Nicolas Maduro. The goal: to 'liberate' Venezuela's oil
revenues in their own pockets. At the moment Mr. Maduro is down the list of villains, not
nearly the stature of a 'new Hitler' like Vladimir Putin. But where he ends up will depend on
how successfully the CIA (with Robert Mueller's help) can drum up a war against nuclear armed
Russia.
What separates Russia from the other heroes and villains on the list is its history as a
competing empire as well as the manner in which Russian oil and gas is distributed. Geography
placed it closer to the population centers of Europe than to Southeastern China where Chinese
economic development has been concentrated. This makes Europe a 'natural' market for Russian
oil and gas.
The former Soviet state of Ukraine did stand between, or rather under, Russian pipelines and
Europe until Hillary Clinton had her lieutenants engineer a coup there in 2014. In contrast to
the 'new Hitler' of Mr. Putin (or was that Trump?) Mrs. Clinton and her comrades demonstrated a
preference for the old Hitler in the form of Ukrainian fascists who were the ideological
descendants of 'authentic' WWII Nazis. But rest assured, not all of the U.S.'s allies in this
affair
were ideological Nazis .
Chart: Demonization of Russia centers on competition for oil and gas revenues. Pipelines
to deliver oil and gas from the Middle East to Europe run through North Africa (Libya) and
Syria and / or Turkey. These pipelines are substantially controlled by Western interests with
imperial / colonial ties to the U.S., Britain and 'developed' Europe. Russian oil and gas did
run through Ukraine, which is now negotiating to join NATO, or otherwise hits a NATO wall
before entering Europe.
In contrast to the alternative hypotheses given
in the American press, NATO, the geopolitical extension of the U.S. military in Europe,
admits that the U.S.
engineered coup in Ukraine was 'about' oil geopolitics with Russia. The American storyline
that Crimea was seized by Russia ignores that the Russian navy has had a Black Sea port in Crimea for decades. How
amenable, precisely, might Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and his friends be if
Russia seized a major U.S. naval port given their generous offer to take over the U.S.
electoral system because of a few Russian trolls?
Although Russia is toward the bottom of the top ten countries in terms of oil reserves, it
faces a problem of distribution that the others don't. Imperial ties and recent military
incursions have left the distribution of oil and gas from the Middle East to Europe largely
under Western control. Syria, Turkey and North Africa are necessary to moving this oil and gas
through pipelines to Europe. That Syria, Libya and Turkey are now, or recently have been,
militarily contested adds credence to the contention that the 'international community's'
heroes and villains are largely determined by whose hands their oil and gas resources are
currently in.
Democratic Party loyalists who see Putin, Maduro et al as the problem first need to
answer for the candidate they put forward in 2016. Hillary Clinton led the carnage in Libya
that murdered
30,000 – 50,000 innocents for Western oil and gas interests. Russia didn't force the
U.S. into its calamitous invasion of Iraq. Russia didn't take Americans' jobs, houses and
pensions in the Great Recession. Russia didn't reward Wall Street for causing it. Democrats
need to take responsibility for their failed candidates and their failed Party.
Part of the point in relating oil reserves to American foreign entanglements is that the
countries and leaders involved are incidental. Vladimir Putin certainly seems smarter than the
American leadership. But this has no bearing on whether or not his leadership of Russia is
broadly socially beneficial. The only possible resolution of climate crisis requires both
Russia and the U.S. to greatly reduce their use of fossil fuels. Reports have it that Mr. Putin
has no interest in doing so. And once the marketing chatter is set to the side, neither do the
Americans.
By placing themselves as arbiters of the electoral process, the Director of National
Intelligence and the heads of the CIA, NSA and FBI can effectively control it. Is it accidental
that the candidate of liberal Democrats in the 2016 election was the insiders' -- the
intelligence agencies' and military contractors,' candidate as well? Implied is that these
agencies and contractors are now 'liberal.' Good luck with that program if you value peace and
prosperity.
There are lots of ways to create free and fair elections if that is the goal. Use
paper ballots that are counted in public, automatically register all eligible voters, make
election days national holidays and eliminate 'private' funding of electoral campaigns. But why
make elections free and fair when fanciful nonsense about 'meddling' will convince the liberal
class to deliver power to grey corpses in the CIA, NSA and FBI for the benefit of a tiny cabal
of stupendously rich plutocrats. Who says America isn't already great?
"... "They could take up the president's offer to negotiate with them, to give up their ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs fully and really verifiably not under the onerous terms of the Iran nuclear deal, which really are not satisfactory," ..."
"... "If Iran were really serious they'd come to the table. We'll find out whether they are or not," ..."
"... "matter of respecting international agreements and a matter of international security." ..."
"... "behaves like a normal country." ..."
"... "require enormous change" ..."
"... "increase pressure on the Iranian regime by reducing to zero its revenue from crude oil sales." ..."
"... "the mother of all wars." ..."
"... "confronting possible threats." ..."
"... "The hours of our negotiations with America were perhaps unprecedented in history; then Trump signs something and say all [those negotiations] are void; can you negotiate with this person? Is this [negotiations offer] anything but a publicity stunt?" ..."
Closing the Strait of Hormuz would be the biggest mistake Iran has ever made, the US
president's national security advisor John Bolton said. He urged Tehran to sit down for talks
on its nuclear and missile programs with the US. Dismissing Tehran's threats to block the
strait if its oil exports are stopped, Bolton on Monday said the Iranians were
"bluffing." He then quickly changed his tone saying that Iran should actually engage in a dialog with the US instead of
issuing threats.
"They could take up the president's offer to negotiate with them, to give up their
ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs fully and really verifiably not under the
onerous terms of the Iran nuclear deal, which really are not satisfactory," Bolton told
Fox News, referring to the US President Donald Trump's demands to "re-negotiate" the
2015 Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
"If Iran were really serious they'd come to the table. We'll find out whether they are
or not," Bolton added. The White House national security advisor's remarks came less than
a day before the first round of renewed US sanctions take effect on Tuesday after midnight US
Eastern time. The harshest restrictions are expected to be re-imposed by early November.
Washington decided to reinstate the penalties following Trump's decision to unilaterally
withdraw from the JCPOA in May. Shortly after exiting the agreement, the US penned a 12-point
ultimatum to Iran, which, among other things, demanded that Tehran end its ballistic missile
program, a condition it has repeatedly rejected. The move was then widely condemned by the EU
and other signatories of the deal, including Russia and China, which still consider the
agreement to be an effective means of non-proliferation and have vowed to keep their part of
the deal.
Earlier on Monday, the EU said that starting August, it is enforcing its so-called Blocking
Statute aimed at protecting the European companies doing business in Iran from the
extraterritorial effects of US sanctions. The bloc said that maintaining the nuclear deal with
Iran is a "matter of respecting international agreements and a matter of international
security."
Meanwhile, the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo vowed to "rigorously" enforce the
sanctions on Iran until it "behaves like a normal country." He added that it would
"require enormous change" on Iran's part for the US to review its increasingly hostile
approach to Tehran.
In July, Brian Hook, the US State Department's director of policy planning, said that
Washington's goal is to "increase pressure on the Iranian regime by reducing to zero its
revenue from crude oil sales."
Iranian leaders repeatedly threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and stop the Persian
Gulf oil exports if its own oil exports are blocked. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also
cautioned Washington against launching a war against Tehran by saying that it would be "the
mother of all wars." Iran's Revolutionary Guards have recently admitted that its warships
took part in a naval exercise in the Persian Gulf to hone skills in "confronting possible
threats."
Earlier, the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has slammed Donald Trump's recent proposal
to enter into talks with Iran by calling it nothing but a PR stunt. "The hours of our
negotiations with America were perhaps unprecedented in history; then Trump signs something and
say all [those negotiations] are void; can you negotiate with this person? Is this
[negotiations offer] anything but a publicity stunt?" he said.
The Trump administration has reportedly requested a meeting with
Rouhani eight times, but the Iranian side refused to participate.
As Iran is preparing for the first wave of returning US sanctions that could largely hamper
its foreign trade, the country's banks appear to have already created a mechanism for imports
of essential goods from
Russia .
Bank Saderat Iran (BSI) announced in a statement on Sunday that it had sealed a deal with
the Moscow offshoot of Bank Melli Iran (BMI) over a re-financing scheme that envisaged
providing €10 million to fund imports of essential commodities, medicines, medical
equipment and the raw materials for industrial units.
New restrictions aim to protect currency from further falls
With US sanctions against Iran officially going back into place on August 6, the Iranian
government is scrambling to take some last minute measures to shore up their economy, and
particularly their currency, before the sanctions start to hit.
Iran wants to make sure that what foreign currency does flow overseas is strictly
allocated to a handful of important industries. The fall of prices for the rial has been
heavy related to the surge in the price of gold, as economic uncertainty has many Iranians
running to precious metals, and gold imports surged in recent weeks.
US sanctions aim to limit, if not totally eliminate, Iran's access to foreign markets.
That also has Iran trying to make some last-minute purchases while they know they still can.
Five new planes were purchased from ATR for the state airline. It's far short of the new
fleet of airliners Iran initially sought, but the best they can do with the US blocking
Boeing and Airbus from fulfilling contracts.
Since the August 6 date has been known for months, it's likely much of the market reaction
to the sanctions is already factored in to Iran's currency pricing. China's refusal to comply
with US sanctions, likewise, is a sign that Iran won't be totally cutoff from world markets.
Still, it will take awhile before the full extent of the US attempt, and its effectiveness,
is known.
The US Congress has revived the so-called "NOPEC" bill for countering OPEC and OPEC+.
Officially called the " No Oil Producing and
Exporting Cartels Act ", NOPEC is the definition of so-called "lawfare" because it enables
the US to extra-territorially impose its domestic legislation on others by giving the
government the right to sue OPEC and OPEC+ countries like Russia because of their coordinated
efforts to control oil prices.
Lawsuits, however, are unenforceable , which is why the targeted states' refusal to abide by
the US courts' likely predetermined judgement against them will probably be used to trigger
sanctions under the worst-case scenario, with this chain of events being catalyzed in order to
achieve several strategic objectives.
The first is that the US wants to break up the Russian-Saudi axis that
forms the core of OPEC+, which leads to the second goal of then unravelling the entire OPEC
structure and heralding in the free market liberalization of the global energy industry.
This is decisively to the US' advantage as it seeks to become an energy-exporting
superpower, but it must neutralize its competition as much as possible before this happens,
ergo the declaration of economic-hybrid war through NOPEC. How it would work in practice is
that the US could threaten primary sanctions against the state companies involved in
implementing OPEC and OPEC+ agreements, after which these could then be selectively expanded to
secondary sanctions against other parties who continue to do business with them.
The purpose behind this approach is to intimidate the US' European vassals into complying
with its demands so as to make as much of the continent as possible a captive market of
America's energy exporters, which explains why Trump also wants to scrap LNG export licenses to the EU .
If successful, this could further erode Europe's shrinking strategic independence and also
inflict long-term economic damage on the US' energy rivals that could then be exploited for
political purposes. At the same time, America's recently unveiled " Power Africa " initiative to invest $175 billion in gas projects there
could eventually see US companies in the emerging energy frontiers of Tanzania
,
Mozambique , and elsewhere become important suppliers to their country's Chinese rival,
which could make Beijing's access to energy even more dependent on American goodwill than ever
before.
If looked at as the opening salvo of a global energy war being waged in parallel with the
trade
one as opposed to being dismissed as the populist piece of legislation that it's being
portrayed as by the media, NOPEC can be seen as the strategic superweapon that it actually is,
with its ultimate effectiveness being dependent of course on whether it's properly wielded by
American decision makers.
It's too earlier to call it a game-changer because it hasn't even been promulgated yet, but
in the event that it ever is, then it might go down in history as the most impactful
energy-related development since OPEC, LNG, and fracking.
The USA can't compete on price and volume. But dir to dvassal status of EU can still force
"diversification"
Notable quotes:
"... As a result, Europeans are deciding to stick with the Russians while finding new options in the east, such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. This is creating competition if not tensions in present and potential gas transit countries in southeastern and eastern Europe, for example. ..."
Russia has advanced forward in something of a tactical and potential strategic victory in
the Russo-Western gas war. This is a three-party war, with the US, EU, and Russia each
promoting separate interests. It is one sphere where a united West has failed to 'isolate
Russia.' The US seeks move in on the European energy market with LNG supplies and replace
Russian pipeline-delivered natural gas supplies to Europe. Washington is using the risks of
dependence on Russian gas and Russia's 'bad behavior' as leverage in attempting to convince
Europeans to reject Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Russia is said to be unreliable and prone
to shut off gas supplies to Europe.
Due to past Russian-Ukrainian gas crises, the Ukrainian crisis, and general Russian-Western
tensions, Europe has decided on a gas diversification policy in which each EU member should
have at least three sources of natural gas supply. One additional option that could facilitate
this diversification policy is US liquified natural gas (LNG), but the US is still unable to
supply enough LNG to offset Russian gas supplies that might be rejected by Europe. In the
process, Washington is looking less like a 'team West' player and more like a solely
self-interested power maximizer in European eyes and therefore no more reliable than Moscow. As
a result, Europeans are deciding to stick with the Russians while finding new options in the
east, such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. This is creating competition if not tensions in present
and potential gas transit countries in southeastern and eastern Europe, for example.
The Battle Over Re-Sale: No Victors
One recent battle was largely inconclusive, but if a victor has to be designated it may be
Moscow. In May, the European Commssion concluded a settlement with Russia's Gazprom in May
ending a seven-year anti-trust dispute. In return for the EU dropping billions of dollars in
penalty fees, GazProm agreed to end limitations on the use of gas purchased by EU members,
allow them to re-sell the gas. Some EU members, such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia,
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia have re-sold or wanted to re-sell gas. Moscow
frowned, for example, on Slovakia's resale of natural gas to Ukraine at cheaper prices than
Moscow sought to charge Kiev. The agreement will also restrict Moscow's ability to charge
different countries different prices. So EU members in central and eastern Europe can get a
price close to that paid by Germany and appeal to an arbitration court in case of a dispute.
The agreement guarantees Russia's presence on the European gas market at a time when the
latter's reliance on the former has peaked.
The Northern Front: Nord Stream 2
At the same time, the battle over Russia' Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline has heated up.
When it comes on line in 2019, the 759-mile pipeline will carry GazProm natural gas along the
bed of the Baltic Sea to Germany and double the supply Nord Stream pipeline's current annual
capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm). The Trump administration has threatened yet more
sanctions on third-party companies, this time with those that work on the pipeline. The US
sanctions threat is an attempt to promote American LNG interests as well as to protect
Ukrainian interests, though it contradicts the view that Ukraine should eschew its dependence
on Russian gas.
US officials have been hammering home to Europeans the 'Russian threat' in tandem with the
risk of reliance on Russian gas may pose, which will increase with Nord tream 2, but to no
avail. Public opinion is not working in the US favor, with Germans trusting Moscow more than
Washington, despite all the crimes laid at the Kremlin's door by the West. A recent ZDF
Television opinion survey found that only 14 percent of Germans regard the U.S. as a reliable
partner, while 36 percent view Russia as reliable (
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/trump-s-global-disruption-pushes-merkel-closer-to-putin-s-orbit
). Thus, notwithstanding Ukraine, Syria and alleged chemical attacks, Russiagate, and the
Skrypals, GazProm's supplies to Europe have risen to hold nearly 40 percent of its gas market,
growing last year by 8.1 percent last year to a record level of 193.9 billion cubic metres
(bcm).
Nevertheless, with the EU decision, the U.S., Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and others have
stepped up their pressure on Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and other western Eureopean EU
members to abandon the Nord Stream 2 project. Germans and other western Europeans are unlikely
to give up the short-term gain of energy security for the US LNG given the higher price and
unproven nature of Washington's numerous allegations against the Kremlin. German officials say
they still have no proof from 10 Downing on Russia's culpability for the Skrypal poisoning so
loudly trumpeted by British PM Theresa May.
One motivation for the Russians in building Nord Stream 2 is to obviate the need to
transport gas through Ukraine, which will hurt Ukraine's own energy supply – given
Ukrainian skimming -- and overall economy beyond the present non-sale of Russian gas to
Ukraine. Another Russian motivation is to avert the unreliable Ukrainians, who have failed to
make payments according to contract in the past causing Russian gas cutoffs to Ukraine and thus
Europe with the resulting crises blamed solely on Moscow. The Trump sanctions threat has put
Germany and the other Nord Stream 2 supporting countries between a rock and a hard place,
between Russia and the US. Therefore, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while supporting Nord
Stream 2, has called for guarantees from Russia that Ukraine will remain a gas transit country.
Ukraine's current contract with Russia ends in 2019 at the very time Nord Stream 2 is to go on
line and the EU has urged re-starting EU-mediated negotiatons now in order to avoid another gas
crisis. Putin agreed to do this at his meeting with Germany's merkel in late May. Nord Stream 2
significantly strengthens Putin's hand in any such talks.
The Southern Front: Turkish Stream, SGC and the Azeri and Bulgarian Factors
Russia is strengtheining its position on the European gas war's southern front by building
the Turkish Stream (TS) gas pipeline to Europe. TS consists of a sea and a land leg. The former
runs under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey and is built, with Russo-Turkish talks on the
land leg ongoing.
Russia's Turkish Stream is being challenged by the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) backed by
Western powers, including the EU (along with Turkey and Azerbaijan), which sees the SGC as a
means of diversifying from dependence on Russia. Not just Turkey, but Azerbaijan is emerging as
a major player on the EU gas market, with a shift in policy accenting gas supplies to Europe as
well as oil supplies as in the past. The SGC consists of three components: an expanded South
Caucasus Pipeline and the to be constructed Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and
Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). TANAP is 51 percent Azerbaijani owned, 37 percent Turkish, and
12 percent belonging to British Petroleum. The SGC will carry Azerbaijani gas through Turkey to
Europe and will be able to supply up to one-third of the gas consumed by Bulgaria, Greece and
Italy ( https://en.trend.az/business/energy/2910573.html
). However, the source of the gas supplying the pipeline demonstrates the limits of Western
attempts to isolate Russia (and Iran). Azerbaijan's Shah-Deniz gas field is co-owned by British
Petroleum (29 percent), Turkey's Turkish Petroleum (19 percent), Azerbaijan's SOCAR (17
percent), Malaysia's Petronas (15 percent), Russia's LukOil (10 percent), and Iran's NICO (10
percent). Moreover, Russia's LukOil is negotiating with SOCAR a stake in Azerbaijan's
second-largest gas field, Umid-Babek, which also includes Britain's Nobel Upstream (
https://newsbase.com/topstories/lukoil-talks-join-umid-babek-project?utm_campaign=466286_GERD%2031%20May%202018&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NewsBase%20LTD&dm_i=4NTN,9ZSE,2Q5R2D,13DVS,1
).
Again the Ukrainian issue is part of the picture here, as a good portion of GasProm supplies
to Bulgaria go through Ukraine. Turkish Stream can replace at least some of that supply should
Moscow decide to entirely avert Ukraine's pipeline system. It is of interest that no one in the
West has offered to include in any of these projects or attempted to fashion a pipeline or
pipeline extension that could link up with the Ukrainian network.
During Bulgarian President Rumen Radev's late may visit to Moscow, Putin reported to Radev
that during his meetings with Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan, the latter said he would
pose no oppsotion to extending the Turkish Stream gas pipeline to Bulgaria. In response, Radev
seemed to suggest making Bulgaria a "a gas redistribution center, a hub" for the Turkish
Stream's supplies further into Europe ( http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57608
). Moreover, one gets the impression that Bulgaria is wary more about its dependence on Turkey
and Ankara's new offensive energy policy in Europe than on Russia and might help Moscow detour
Ukraine. In 2015, Erdogan declared a major policy initiative of making Turkey a, if not
the major energy transit hub for supplies heading from the east to Europe. Russia's
annexation of Crimea could help Russia in its talks both with Erdogan over the Turkish Stream
and pose the threat of undermining the SGC. It may also help Putin deal with Merkel, Kiev and
the EU over the Ukraine pipeline system's future role. Bulgarian President Radev also said in
Moscow that Sofia supports building a direct gas pipeline under the Black Sea to bring Russian
gas to Bulgaria ( https://echo.msk.ru/news/2206394-echo.html ).
The Bulgarian option could be used by Putin to threaten Erdogan with reducing the Turkish
Stream's supplies or abandoning it altogether in favor of a Black Sea Russian-Bulgarian Stream
and to reduce Russia's dependence on Ukraine as well.
US wants to leverage his dominance in Europe into gas market. That's can work as long as gas
is plentiful. As soon as it became a scarcity the situation will radically change.
This month, the Wall Street Journal
reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has been pressuring Germany to drop its support
for a major new Russian gas pipeline if Europe wants to avoid a trade war with Washington,
while a senior U.S. diplomat warned that the project could be hit with U.S. sanctions; Russian
President Vladimir Putin responded
defiantly . This development, sadly, fuels the further politicization of the European gas
market -- a space that, in many ways, has reflected the triumphs of a depoliticized, pro-market
technocracy, which has managed to stimulate competition and lower prices irrespective of
changing political trends. Just last year, Trump called on European countries to buy American
liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which, for now, remains more expensive than Russia's pipeline
gas. Certainly, the U.S. has much to gain on the global gas market, which has changed
drastically over the past decade, as America rapidly transformed from an importer to an
exporter. Europe's gas market, meanwhile, has much to gain from additional supply. But Trump's
approach, especially if the latest reports are true, both alienates Western European partners
and feeds into a sensationalist, simplistic portrayal of the new U.S. role's effect on Russia
-- as a zero-sum game, in which these new, plentiful U.S. gas supplies serve as an antidote to
Russia's "gas dominance" in Europe and hence to Moscow's political leverage.
In fact, even if Russia remains Europe's dominant gas supplier in the coming years -- as is
likely -- it now has to play by EU rules and vie hard for market share, ultimately benefiting
European consumers. America's gas boom has catalyzed this thriving competition, but an equally
important factor has been a massive, long-term investment in infrastructure and regulation by
Brussels. These EU efforts have done a great deal to weaken Moscow's geopolitical "gas power,"
which has never been uniform across the continent. Today, gas is a prized commodity but not a
major weapon in East-West relations: Russia's gas leverage cannot harm the West, and neither
does competition with U.S. gas pose a major threat to Russia as a state or, for now, to its gas
behemoth, Gazprom. Moreover, in the near to medium term, Russian and U.S. gas companies may
face many
challenges in common : Both will be competing against new, price-lowering producers and
grappling with ever "greener" regulations on the European market, while also trying to profit
from Asia's thirst for energy.
How cheap could Russia produce to compete with growing US LNG exports?
Gazprom needs price around 4 $ per mmbtu in Europe to be profitable. Today in Europe are close to 8 $. US LNG long term imho
need about 8 to 9 $ per mbbtu.
European
Union representatives told me that they would start buying soybeans from our great farmers immediately. Also, they will be buying
vast amounts of LNG!
perated by high gasoline prices just ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, lawmakers in
Congress are trying to make it easier for the United States to sue OPEC. And unlike previous
failed efforts to go after the oil-exporting cartel, this time Congress will find a
sympathetic ear in the White House.
The bipartisan No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act, or NOPEC bill, would tweak U.S.
antitrust law to explicitly ban just the kind of collusive behavior that OPEC was created to
engage in. The bill, a carbon copy of previous legislation, makes illegal any activity to
restrain the production of oil or gas or set oil and gas prices and knocks away two legal
defenses that in the past have shielded OPEC from U.S. antitrust measures.
The international lawyers of Wall Street did not hide from each other their shared belief
that they understood better than Washington the requirements for running the world. As John
Foster Dulles wrote in the 1930s to a British colleague,
The word "cartel" has here assumed the stigma of a bogeyman which the politicians are
constantly attacking. The fact of the matter is that most of these politicians are highly
insular and nationalistic and because the political organization of the world has under such
influence been so backward, business people who have had to cope realistically with
international problems have had to find ways for getting through and around stupid political
barriers. 44
This same mentality also explains why Allen Dulles as an OSS officer in 1945 simply evaded
orders from Washington forbidding him to negotiate with SS General Karl Wolff about a
conditional surrender of German forces in Italy – an important breach of Roosevelt's
agreement with Stalin at Yalta for unconditional surrender, a breach that is regarded by many
as helping lead to the Cold War. 45 And it explains why Allen, as CIA Director in
1957, dealt summarily with Eisenhower's reluctance to authorize more than occasional U-2
overflights of the USSR, by secretly approving a plan with Britain's MI-6 whereby U-2 flights
could be authorized instead by the UK Prime Minister Macmillan. 46
This mentality exhibited itself in 1952, when Truman's Justice Department sought to break up
the cartel agreements whereby Standard Oil of New Jersey (now Exxon) and four other oil majors
controlled global oil distribution. (The other four were Standard Oil Company of New York,
Standard Oil of California or Socony, Gulf Oil, and Texaco; together with Royal Dutch Shell and
Anglo-Iranian, they comprised the so-called Seven Sisters of the cartel.) Faced with a
government order to hand over relevant documents, Exxon's lawyer Arthur Dean at Sullivan and
Cromwell, where Foster was senior partner, refused: "If it were not for the question of
national security, we would be perfectly willing to face either a criminal or a civil suit. But
this is the kind of information the Kremlin would love to get its hands on." 47
At this time the oil cartel was working closely with the British Anglo-Iranian Oil Company
(AIOC, later BP) to prevent AIOC's nationalization by Iran's Premier Mossadeq, by instituting,
in May 1951, a successful boycott of Iranian oil exports.
In May 1951 the AIOC secured the backing of the other oil majors, who had every interest
in discouraging nationalisation.... None of the large companies would touch Iranian oil;
despite one or two picturesque episodes the boycott held. 48
As a result Iranian oil production fell from 241 million barrels in 1950 to 10.6 million
barrels in 1952.
This was accomplished by denying Iran the ability to export its crude oil. At that time,
the Seven Sisters controlled almost 99% of the crude oil tankers in the world for such
export, and even more importantly, the markets to which it was going. 49
But Truman declined, despite a direct personal appeal from Churchill, to have the CIA
participate in efforts to overthrow Mossadeq, and instead dispatched Averell Harriman to Tehran
in a failed effort to negotiate a peaceful resolution of Mossadeq's differences with London.
50
All this changed with the election of Eisenhower in November 1952, followed by the
appointment of the Dulles brothers to be Secretary of State and head of CIA. The Justice
Department's criminal complaint against the oil cartel was swiftly replaced by a civil suit,
from which the oil cartel eventually emerged unscathed. 51
Eisenhower, an open friend of the oil industry changed the charges from criminal to civil
and transferred responsibility of the case from the Department of Justice to the Department
of State – the first time in history that an antitrust case was handed to State for
prosecution. Seeing as how the Secretary of State was John Foster Dulles and the defense
counsel for the oil cartel was Dulles' former law firm (Sullivan and Cromwell), the case was
soon as good as dead. 52
Thereafter
Cooperative control of the world market by the major oil companies remained in effect,
with varying degrees of success, until the oil embargo of 1973-74. That the cooperation was
more than tacit can be seen by the fact that antitrust regulations were specifically set
aside a number of times during the 1950-1973 period, allowing the major companies to
negotiate as a group with various Mideastern countries, and after its inception [in 1960],
with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC. 53
Also in November 1952 CIA officials began planning to involve CIA in the efforts of MI6 and
the oil companies in Iran 54 -- although its notorious Operation TP/AJAX to
overthrow Mossadeq was not finally approved by Eisenhower until July 22, 1953.
55
The events of 1953 strengthened the role of the oil cartel as a structural component of the
American deep state, drawing on its powerful connections to both Wall Street and the CIA.
56 (Another such component was the Arabian-American Oil Company or ARAMCO in Saudi
Arabia, which increased oil production in 1951-53 to offset the loss of oil from Iran. Until it
was fully nationalized in 1980, ARAMCO maintained undercover CIA personnel like William Eddy
among its top advisors.) 57 The five American oil majors in particular were also
strengthened by the success of AJAX, as Anglo-Iranian (renamed BP) was henceforth forced to
share 40 percent of the oil from its Iran refinery with them.
Nearly all recent accounts of Mossadeq's overthrow treat it as a covert intelligence
operation, with the oil cartel (when mentioned at all) playing a subservient role. However the
chronology, and above all the belated approval from Eisenhower, suggest that it was CIA that
came belatedly in 1953 to assist an earlier oil cartel operation, rather than vice versa. In
terms of the deep state, the oil cartel or deep state initiated in 1951 a process that the
American public state only authorized two years later. Yet the inevitable bias in academic or
archival historiography, working only with those primary sources that are publicly available,
is to think of the Mossadeq tragedy as simply a "CIA coup."
VK
I posted the sequence of events used to create the petro dollar back in the 2018-33
thread.
Will post them again here as this thread concerns Kissinger.
More specifics can be added to this planned sequence of events, this just the basics.
...........
In the late 1960s, US found oil at Prudhoe bay and by 1970 it was a proved crude oil
reserve.
Due to environmental and other legal challenges, construction of the pipeline was held up.
In late 1972 the US Secretary of the Interior declares the trans-Alaska pipeline to be in
the US national interest
1973-74. OPEC oil embargo due to US backing of Israel pushes oil prices up in an initial
rise.
1973 (OPEC oil embargo) The Trans-Alaska pipeline Authorization Act legislation is quickly
pushed through. Signed by Nixon on November 16 1973. This blocked all further challenges
allowing construction to begin. pdf
Late 1973 Nixon along with Saudi Arabia create the petro dollar beginning in 1974.
1979-80 the price of oil skyrockets due to the Iranian revolution. The US is now the
global economic hegemon as all countries now need US dollars to purchase oil.
I have read that Kissinger withheld information from both Nixon and Israel, but have not
followed that line of research.
Here is a piece from an official Kissinger biography. You can see here he was working both
sides.
https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/kissinger-henry-a
Kissinger entered the State Department just two weeks before Egypt and Syria launched a
surprise attack on Israel. The October War of 1973 played a major role in shaping Kissinger's
tenure as Secretary. First, he worked to ensure Israel received an airlift of U.S. military
supplies. This airlift helped Israel turn the war in Israel's favor, and it also led members
of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to initiate an oil embargo
against the United States. After the implementation of a United Nation's sponsored ceasefire,
Kissinger began a series of "shuttle diplomacy" missions, in which he traveled between
various Middle East capitals to reach disengagement agreements between the enemy combatants.
These efforts produced an agreement in January 1974 between Egypt and Israel and in May 1974
between Syria and Israel. Additionally, Kissinger's efforts contributed to OPEC's decision to
lift the embargo.
It is noticeable that Trump's US attack any Syrian forces coming too close to US occupied
zones of al Tanf and Dier Ezzor. Also Trumps takeover of the Deir Ezzor oilfields where US
forces simply set up bases or forward posts in the ISIS occupied area.
Under Trump, US has set up a number of new bases in Syria. On the other hand, no concern
about Afrin and Manbij. The Deir Ezzor area is Arab tribes and this and al Hasakah
(Kurd/Arab?) is the top end of the Persian Gulf/Mesopotamia oil field.
US now controls al Hasakah and half of Deir Ezzor province. The have been ongoing efforts
by the US under Trump to take Al Bukamal. US has a base just south of Al Bukamal in Iraq. US
bases are now thick throughout Mesopotamia, with more being built.
Also a new base being installed in Kuwait.
The US controls the Arab shore of the Persian gulf, it now has many bases in Iraq and
Syria. The only thing missing is the oil rich strip of Iran running alongside the Persian
gulf and Mesopotamia.
"... How different is it really from the past 70+ years (since that 45' meeting between FDR and the then ruler of KSA), and especially since the "oil shocks" of the 1970's ? The Trumpians are little more direct and crude in their wording, but that is really the only difference I see. ..."
"... Putin's announcement after Turkey's shooting down of a Russian jet that Turkey has been systematically facilitating ISIS oil sales illustrates how the terror-entity has become a figleaf to justify military action. ..."
"... As INSURGEintelligence has previously reported, there is significant evidence that high-level elements of Turkish government and intelligence agencies have covertly sponsored Islamist terrorist groups in Syria, including ISIS, and that this has involved permitting black market oil sales. ..."
"... Why, however, did Vladimir Putin wait until the murder of a Russian pilot before announcing Russia's possession of intelligence on Turkish state-sponsorship of ISIS? ..."
"... There can be little doubt that Putin had previously been more interested in protecting Russian relations with Turkey as an emerging gas transshipment hub to Europe, under which he and Erdogan planned to build the multibillion Russia-Turkey gas pipeline, Turkish Stream -- now suspended after the recent diplomatic furore. ..."
"... It has become increasingly clear that the US-led coalition strategy is aimed primarily at containment of the group's territorial ambitions within Syria. ..."
"... In this context, as Russia and Iran consolidate their hold on Syria through the Assad regime -- staking the claim to Syria's untapped resources in the Mediterranean -- the acceleration of Western military action offers both a carrot and a stick: the carrot aims to threaten the Assad regime into a political accommodation that capitulates to Western regional energy designs; the stick aims to replace him with a more compliant entity comprised of rebel forces backed by Western allies, the Gulf states and Turkey, whilst containing the most virulent faction, ISIS. ..."
The Saudi's. Interesting watching them agree to whatever Trump wants. The most recent one was Trump telling them to raise oil
output. The Saudi's now are very pro zionist and will back them against the Sunni Palestinians no matter what. If Trumps tells
them to pay for a US war or occupation they pay. If they are told to by lots of useless junk from the US MIC, they buy it and
manage to pull a twisted smile when Trump turns the screws about billions being peanuts.
Seems very much like KSA is now an expendable asset for the US, and their only chance of survival is a lot of 'yes sir, how
high sir'.
How different is it really from the past 70+ years (since that 45' meeting between FDR and the then ruler of KSA), and
especially since the "oil shocks" of the 1970's ? The Trumpians are little more direct and crude in their wording, but that is
really the only difference I see.
Posted by: Peter L. | Jul 1, 2018 11:21:17 PM | 23
Look no further than the first sentence of the text you quote. It has been documented a few times, including in the Intercept,
that there were some very serious money flows towards a certain foundation run by the family of the named person. Money flows
that originated in the Gulf. Money flows that were related to what happened in Libia.
Putin's announcement after Turkey's shooting down of a Russian jet that Turkey has been systematically facilitating ISIS
oil sales illustrates how the terror-entity has become a figleaf to justify military action.
As INSURGEintelligence has previously reported, there is significant evidence that high-level elements of Turkish government
and intelligence agencies have covertly sponsored Islamist terrorist groups in Syria, including ISIS, and that this has involved
permitting black market oil sales.
Why, however, did Vladimir Putin wait until the murder of a Russian pilot before announcing Russia's possession of intelligence
on Turkish state-sponsorship of ISIS?
There can be little doubt that Putin had previously been more interested in protecting Russian relations with Turkey
as an emerging gas transshipment hub to Europe, under which he and Erdogan planned to build the multibillion Russia-Turkey
gas pipeline, Turkish Stream -- now suspended after the recent diplomatic furore.
US, British and French military operations have been similarly inconsistent, inexplicably failing to shut down ISIS supply
lines through Turkey, failing to bomb critical ISIS oil infrastructure including vast convoys of trucks transporting black
market oil, and refusing to arm the most effective and secular Kurdish ground forces combating ISIS.
It has become increasingly clear that the US-led coalition strategy is aimed primarily at containment of the group's
territorial ambitions within Syria.
....
As Russia expands its military presence in the region in the name of fighting ISIS, the US, Britain and France are now scrambling
to ensure they retain a military foothold in Syria -- an effort to position themselves to make the most of a post-conflict
environment. As the US Geological Survey Minerals Yearbook put it:
"Most of the international investors who pulled out of Syria following the deterioration of the safety and security situation
throughout the country are expected to remain so until the military and political conflicts are resolved."
In this context, as Russia and Iran consolidate their hold on Syria through the Assad regime -- staking the claim
to Syria's untapped resources in the Mediterranean -- the acceleration of Western military action offers both a carrot and
a stick: the carrot aims to threaten the Assad regime into a political accommodation that capitulates to Western regional energy
designs; the stick aims to replace him with a more compliant entity comprised of rebel forces backed by Western allies, the
Gulf states and Turkey, whilst containing the most virulent faction, ISIS.
Hysteria is at fever pitch. After the NATO summit in Brussels, the definitive Decline of the West has been
declared a done deal as President Trump gets ready to meet President Putin in Helsinki.
It was Trump himself who
stipulated that he wants to talk to Putin behind closed doors, face-to-face, without any aides and, in theory,
spontaneously, after the preparatory meeting between Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov was canceled. The summit will take place at the early 19
th
century Presidential Palace in
Helsinki, a former residence of Russian emperors.
As a preamble to Helsinki, Trump's spectacular NATO blitzkrieg was a show for the ages; assorted "leaders" in
Brussels simply didn't know what hit them. Trump didn't even bother to arrive on time for morning sessions dealing
with the possible accession of Ukraine and Georgia. Diplomats confirmed to Asia Times that after Trump's stinging
"pay up or else" tirade, Ukraine and Georgia were asked to leave the room because what would be discussed was
strictly an internal NATO issue.
Previewing the summit, Eurocrats indulged in interminable carping about "illiberalism" taking over, from Viktor
Orban in Hungary to Sultan Erdogan in Turkey, as well as mourning the "destruction of European unity" (yes, it's
always Putin's fault). Trump though would have none of it. The US President conflates the EU with NATO,
interpreting the EU as a rival, just like China, but much weaker. As for the US "deal" with NATO, just like NAFTA,
that's a bad deal.
NATO is 'obsolete'
Trump is correct that without the US, NATO is "obsolete" – as in non-existent. So essentially what he did in
Brussels laid bare the case for NATO as a protection racket, with Washington fully entitled to up the stakes for
the "protection".
But "protection" against what?
Since the dismemberment of Yugoslavia, when NATO was repositioned in its new role as humanitarian imperialist
global Robocop, the alliance's record is absolutely dismal.
That features miserably losing an endless war in Afghanistan against a bunch of Pashtun warriors armed with
Kalashnikov replicas; turning functional Libya into a militia wasteland and headquarters for Europe-bound
refugees; and having the NATO-Gulf Cooperation Council lose its bet on a galaxy of jihadis and crypto-jihadis in
Syria spun as "moderate rebels".
NATO has launched a new training, non-combat mission in Iraq; 15 years after Shock and Awe, Sunnis, Shi'ites,
Yazidis and even Kurdish factions are not impressed.
Then there's the NATO Readiness Initiative; the capacity of deploying 30 battalions, 30 battleships and 30
aircraft squadrons within 30 days (or less) by 2020. If not to wreak selected havoc across the Global South, this
initiative is supposedly set up to deter "Russian aggression".
So after dabbling with the Global War on Terror, NATO is essentially back to the original "threat"; the
imminent Russian invasion of Western Europe – a ludicrous notion if there ever was one. The
final
statement
in Brussels spells it out, with special emphasis on item 6 and item 7.
The combined GDP of all NATO members is 12 times that of Russia. And NATO's defense spending is six times
larger than Russia's. Contrary to non-stop Polish and Baltic hysteria, Russia does not need to "invade" anything;
what worries the Kremlin, in the long term, is the well being of ethnic Russians living in former Soviet
republics.
Russia can't be both threat and an energy partner
Then there's Europe's energy policy – and that's a completely different story.
Trump has described the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as "inappropriate", but his claim that Germany gets 70% of its
energy (via natural gas imports) from Russia may be easily debunked. Germany gets at best 9% of its energy from
Russia. In terms of Germany's
sources
of energy
, only 20% is natural gas. And less than 40% of natural gas in Germany comes from Russia. Germany is
fast transitioning towards wind, solar, biomass and hydro energy, which made up 41% of the total in 2018. And the
target is 50% by 2030.
Yet Trump does have a sterling point when, stressing that "Germany is a rich country", he wants to know
why America should
"protect
you against Russia"
when energy deals are on the table. "Explain that! It can't be explained!" as he
reportedly said to Nato Secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday.
In the end, of course, it's all about business. What Trump is really aiming at is for Germany to import US
shale gas, three times more expensive than pipeline-delivered Russian gas.
The energy angle is directly linked to the never-ending 2% defense spending soap opera. Germany currently
spends 1.2% of GDP on NATO. by 2024, it's supposed to reach at best 1.5%. And that's it. The majority of German
voters, in fact, want US troops
out
.
So Trump's demand for 4% of GDP on defense spending for all NATO members will never fly. The sales pitch should
be seen for what it is: a tentative "invitation" for an increased EU and NATO shopping spree on US military
hardware.
In a nutshell, the key factor remains that Trump's Brussels blitzkrieg did make his case. Russia cannot be a
"threat" and a reliable energy partner at the same time. As much as NATO poodles may be terrified of "Russian
aggression", the facts spell out they won't put their money where their rhetorical hysteria is.
Foreign ministers attend a working dinner during the NATO Summit in Brussels on July 11, 2018. They gathered to
discuss Russia, Iraq and their mission in Afghanistan. Photo: AFP/ pool/ Yves Herman
Are you listening now?
"Russian aggression" should be one of the top items discussed in Helsinki. In the – remote – possibility that
Trump will strike a deal with Putin, NATO's absurd
raison d'etre
would be even more exposed.
That's not the US "deep-state" agenda, of course, thus the 24/7 demonization of the summit even before it
happens. Moreover, for Trump, the transactional gambling man's Make-America-Great-Again point of view, the ideal
outcome would always be to get even more European weapons deals for the US industrial-military-intelligence
complex.
Terrified by Trump, diplomats in Brussels over these past few days have conveyed to Asia Times fears about the
end of NATO, the end of the World Trade Organization, even the end of the EU. But the fact remains that Europe is
absolutely peripheral to the Big Picture.
In
Losing Military Supremacy
, his latest, groundbreaking book, crack Russian military-naval analyst
Andrei
Martyanov
deconstructs in detail how, "the United States faces two nuclear and industrial superpowers, one of
which fields a world-class armed forces. If the military-political, as opposed to merely economic, alliance
between Russia and China is ever formalized – this will spell the final doom for the United States as a global
power."
The US deep state (its influential bureaucrats) may be wallowing in perpetual denial, but Trump – after many a
closed-door meeting with Henry Kissinger – may have understood the suicidal "strategy" of Washington
simultaneously antagonizing Russia and China.
Putin's landmark
March
1 speech
, as Martyanov stresses, was an effort to "coerce America's elites, if not into peace, at least into
some form of sanity, given that they are currently completely detached from the geopolitical, military and
economic realities of the newly emerging power configurations of the world". These elites may not be listening,
but Trump seems to indicate he is.
As for the NATO poodles, all they can do is watch.
Putin/Russia is also the only entity that can prevent Trump's US from simply walking in and
taking over the rich energy hub (Mafia style) to the south of Eurasia.
Notable quotes:
"... Global Energy Dominance is now part of the US National security Strategy. Although not labeled as global, when reading through the energy dominance section of the NSS, it can clearly been seen to be global. This is not just about sell oil produced in the US. ..."
"... Trump is going for the Achilles heel of Eurasia - energy. Rather than a creative accounting scam that simply racks up huge amounts of debt, Trump is looking for a monopoly or near monopoly business to take over and rake in the profits. ..."
"... Russia supply energy to Eurasia from the North. The opening for the Trump mob is in the south. The meet with Putin may well be to sound out the possibilities of forming a cartel. ..."
"... Yes, it absolutely is. But this is not a new "Trump policy." Certainly Zbiginew Brzezenski laid this out quite clearly in his 1997 book, "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives." It's really all in there, just as you're now identifying. If you can't take the time to read it, please consider at least reading some book reviews. As I've noted before, Ziggy apparently didn't foresee Putin rising to power and restoring the Russian state, which threw the proverbial monkey wrench into the globalists' plans, but really, US foreign policy has continued to follow his plans otherwise. ..."
The latest article at the Saker site by Rostislav Ishchenko - Trump's Geopolitical Cruise
- I think is the best take on Trump's and his backers mindset. Worth a read and covers what I
think was the cause of the split in the US elite.
The petro dollar, kicking off in the late 70s was a piece of creative accounting to give
unlimited credit. This should have been ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, but
greed got the better of most. Trump and the people backing him could see that this was now in
its terminal stages and US close to collapse itself.
Rostislav Ishchenko, like many thinks that Trump is pulling the US back to a form of
isolation from the world, but I don't think this is the case.
Global Energy Dominance is now part of the US National security Strategy. Although not
labeled as global, when reading through the energy dominance section of the NSS, it can
clearly been seen to be global. This is not just about sell oil produced in the US.
Trump is going for the Achilles heel of Eurasia - energy. Rather than a creative accounting scam that simply racks up huge amounts of debt, Trump is
looking for a monopoly or near monopoly business to take over and rake in the profits.
Russia supply energy to Eurasia from the North. The opening for the Trump mob is in the
south. The meet with Putin may well be to sound out the possibilities of forming a cartel.
Putin/Russia is also the only entity that can prevent Trump's US from simply walking in
and taking over the rich energy hub (Mafia style) to the south of Eurasia.
"Global Energy Dominance is now part of the US National security Strategy."
Yes, it absolutely is. But this is not a new "Trump policy." Certainly Zbiginew Brzezenski
laid this out quite clearly in his 1997 book, "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its
Geostrategic Imperatives." It's really all in there, just as you're now identifying. If you
can't take the time to read it, please consider at least reading some book reviews. As I've
noted before, Ziggy apparently didn't foresee Putin rising to power and restoring the Russian
state, which threw the proverbial monkey wrench into the globalists' plans, but really, US
foreign policy has continued to follow his plans otherwise.
Kissinger has written much the same, though I don't recall in which books/articles. This
page from the US Navy seems a fine reading list, designed as it appears to indoctrinate
officers in AZ Empire geopolitics.
IMO, the US took the lead in the Empire's Global Energy Dominance quest when FDR met with
King Saud on Great Bitter Lake in the Suez Canal in 1945 (swinging by after the final
post-war world planning meeting with Churchill and Stalin at Yalta). This was when the US
largely replaced Great Britain in primacy over Asian/Middle Eastern energy dominance.
The US is in the Persian Gulf to stay. Trumps face face meet with Putin will be so Trump
can try and gauge what Putin will do - if he will run any blocking moves, his reaction to a
fait accompli ect. Most likely a few more face to face meetings before any move on Iran.
Peter, thanks for pointing out the new and unwanted US base in Iraq. I just read that the US
was building the world's largest Embassy Compound in "Iraqi Kurdistan." I wonder it they're
the same thing?
In a quick web search, failing to find an answer, I noticed that besides the "Green Zone"
compound we built in Baghdad at the start of the current military occupation, the record
holder was the US Embassy Compound in Pakistan.
James and I have discoursed here a bit on the history of US military occupations since WW
II. Boils down to the US has never removed its military from any country it's occupied with
the exception of Vietnam.
veritas semper vincit @103 linked blogpost notes that the US has 40,000 troops still
occupying Germany. His (I presume) post is quite entertaining considering the severe
seriousness of the topic.
Dis is a nice little country ya gotz heyah. Id be a shame if sumpin' bad was ta happen to
it.
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that a deal under which
Russia would provide goods to Iran in exchange for oil is still possible.
Russia is studying all legal issues related to the possible deal, he said.
Looks like OPEC 14 peaked two years. Can they beat it?, perhaps by a small amount in a world
without chaos.
Today orange fatty called out Germany for being captive to Russia. I'm pretty sure he was
referring to German dependence on imported fossil energy from Russia.
As of 2015 Germany net energy imports are 64% of total [USA 12% for comparison]. If this
means 'captive', then perhaps we should acknowledge that 11 of our top 13 trading partners
are highly dependent on imported energy from either Russia or the big OPEC producers.
'Captives' so to speak. Better get used to that idea, and learn how to get along with
others. Only Canada and Mexico aren't 'captives', but we don't look to good at being friends
with them either.
"... Trump seems to enjoy antagonizing the Europeans one way or the other. As to NATO, Trump made the same complaints during his campaign while calling it "obsolete." Sometimes it sounds like he would rather have the US out of NATO. One theory I have is that he is limited in what he can do so he works around TPTBs to get closer to his goals. So he antagonizes and threatens Europe on NATO. The same goes for Syria. He talked about wanting to pull out but kept being drawn back in by the usual suspects. So he's pulled monetary support in certain cases and refused to dig the US in any deeper than it is. And it will be interesting to see what happens with his upcoming meeting with Putin considering how much he had to backtrack on his talk of better relations during his campaign. Those who've wanted him to join the "hate Russia" team may get frustrated. ..."
"... Within this new "mulit-polar" world, only Russia is cutting its military budge. And they still seem to have at least one of the most effective conventional war-fighting capability, and their next generation nuclear deterrence looks nothing short of awesome. They have pipelines to build, and like China, long-term economic contracts to sign. ..."
"... I'm no fan of Angela, but she/Germany have been trying to tamp down this AZ Empire New Cold War against Russia since at least 2013. When she, Putin, Yanukovych (elected President of Ukraine) and the leaders of the Maidan protests got together and signed an agreement in which Yanukovych acquiesced to essentially all of the "peaceful, pro-democracy protesters'" demands, it was the Asst. Secretary of the US State (Vickie Nuland) who said, "F*ck the EU" "We can midwife this thing" and even appointed the new PM "Yats is the guy." ..."
"... The US can't keep funding your crappy little joke of a disintegrating "European Union" for ever. Sooner or later you'll have to put on big-boy pants. ..."
"... USA govt's assessment of China and Russia as "revisionist" should be understood as a determination to remain the hegemonic power. Thus, we have Cold War II. From that perspective, European objections to more "defense" spending are considered naive (or worse) as Europe's fate is views as tied to that of the Empire. ..."
"... I think European elites are much more likely to side with USA than European people. If the Trump's talk with Putin doesn't go well, we are likely to see increased scaremongering to rectify public opinion. ..."
"... Chaos can make doing business harder, but that can also increase profits. As the posters said in the '60s, "War Is Not Good For Children And Other Living Things." But it's great for the psychopaths. ..."
"... Here is an article that explains the relationship between Russian pipelines, USA sanctions on Russia, MH17, Crimea, and Syria. It is an excellent background to comprehend Trump's accusations about Germany's purchase of gas from Russia. Patrick Armstrong and Pat Lang seem to think that Trump is about to cut NATO support, reduce/eliminate sanctions against Russia, and redirect relations with Israel, but I am not persuaded. https://www.unz.com/article/why-was-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-shot-down/ by Kees van der Pijl He also wrote a book on this topic. ..."
"... Everything the US does works to undermine its old power in the new world. We see this continually. Trump is an accelerator. But whether any of this is intentional and actually desired by a part of US vested interests, is still an open question. ..."
"... Nevertheless, as we watch, we see every action of the US working to cement the bonds of its opposition in the rest of the world. From the Escobar article linked by karlof1 above, we see the pressure on the Middle East to reject the US and turn for safety to the Eurasian institutions of commerce, finance and national security. The same thing is happening to Europe. ..."
"... he equation as it stands now is this: A muscle-bound USA + an anaemic Europe "deterring" a Russian Federation that has no intention of invading. ..."
"... Since Russia is no threat either way then there is no need - none whatsoever - for the Europeans to increase their military expenditure to "defend themselves" against a non-existent Russian threat. ..."
"... Indeed, the only reason the Europeans would feel that they might have to prepare to "defend themselves" would be because that muscle-bound US military is now outside the tent pissing in, not inside the tent pissing out. ..."
"... Since whenever, America has been the proxy front for the current instantiation of empire with the core of control being ongoing private finance with global tools like BIS, IMF, World Bank, etc. Since WWII and even before the goal of empire is to have all of the world under its control. Since the engine of empire is a supra-national matrix of private finance control, the enemy becomes any nations who do not want to be impregnated with the Western model of private Central Bank, an oligarchy , inheritance, private property, etc. ..."
"... The empire model of growth through wars and boom/bust expansion has reached its "logical" limits and the the existential question has become, blow everything all up or agree to a multipolar world. I think that the elite hope Trump's bluster will make it so they do not have to answer that existential question.....yet ..."
"... If Trump's fake argument gambit was intended to inspire people inside and outside the EU to think outside the box then it seems to have worked. ..."
"... I LUV how Trump stomped on all those preaning European elite scumbags. ..."
"... Agree with Patrick. It is surprising to still see so much animosity towards a president who has done more to combat the absurdity of NATO and globalism than I can remember any other President doing. The ball is in the EU elites court, now. Put up or shut up and I believe it makes no difference to Trump. We are about to find out who is REALLY to blame for marching lockstep with the current of hypercentralization (globalism): the Trump admin or the EU elitez. ..."
"... The US has been manipulating NATO ever since it was formed. Most NATO officials are vetted by the US. Trump is an idiot, like the bulk of US politicians. ..."
"... Trump's "reasoning" makes sense in an infantile sort of way, but there's more too it than meets the eye, is there not? Trump doesn't just want to Europe to "pay their fair share" for NATO, which we all know is code for buying more US mil.gear but also to buy their LNG from US too. It's like NATO is some sort of grotesque, evil franchise where the franchisees can only buy goods/services from that single source, even though it's crap & inordinately expensive, and even if you can get it cheaper elsewhere, i.e Russia. ..."
"... Wow! You don't feel that Trump has, by his mere existence and by winning the presidency, been given a platform of which to decry the myriad injustices of globalization and to utter things unspeakable by any Prez in the last fifty years? ..."
"... Europe has an arms industry of their own. I doubt European countries invest their money into US stuff - they buy their own. Most of the money does not go into weapons anyway, but personel and administration. Germany contributes to the maintenance and infrastructure of US bases, but those bases are business, too. This is not Saudi Arabia buying protection. The real news is that Trump has started a trade war negotiating by tantrum. ..."
You are agreeing with an idiot, no matter what...Europe has nothing to worry about with
regards to Russia. Unless they threaten Russia. 'Love this exchange at breakfast;
"Stoltenberg: [ ] I think that two World Wars and the Cold War taught us that we
are stronger together than apart.
Trump: But how can you be together when a country is getting its energy from the
person you want protection against or from the group that you want protection?
Stoltenberg: Because we understand that when we stand together, also in dealing
with Russia, we are stronger. I think what we have seen is that --
Trump: No, you're just making Russia richer. You're not dealing with Russia.
You're making Russia richer."
You'd have to be an idiot not to agree with Trump here.
Trump seems to enjoy antagonizing the Europeans one way or the other. As to NATO, Trump
made the same complaints during his campaign while calling it "obsolete." Sometimes it sounds
like he would rather have the US out of NATO. One theory I have is that he is limited in what
he can do so he works around TPTBs to get closer to his goals. So he antagonizes and
threatens Europe on NATO. The same goes for Syria. He talked about wanting to pull out but
kept being drawn back in by the usual suspects. So he's pulled monetary support in certain
cases and refused to dig the US in any deeper than it is. And it will be interesting to see
what happens with his upcoming meeting with Putin considering how much he had to backtrack on
his talk of better relations during his campaign. Those who've wanted him to join the "hate
Russia" team may get frustrated.
Will he take direct action on any of these things? I doubt it. The indirect route seems to
go in the right direction.
karlof!. Good to "see" you back. The following is specifically to you, but it does continue
from your first comment. [I couldn't get some links to embed, sorry]
My best short term hope is that all this war-blustering is just to convince we commoners
to bend over so the military/industrial contractors can make lots of gelt. The Global War OF
Terror has been terrific for their bank accounts, but with SAA and the MoD of the RF beating
the snot out of terrorists wherever they go to such an extent that the Pentagon is
considering ISIS essentially defeated.
Besides, the really "big ticket products" are things like aircraft carriers,
"upgraded" nuclear weapons, 5th Generation fighters, etc. etc. etc., that are harder to
excuse when their targets are guys in sandals with AK47s and IEDs. That could be why the 2018
National Defense Strategy plan has shifted from fighting "terrorism" back to " the long-term,
strategic competition between nations."
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf
Same with our "adversary" across the big pond in China. Just the other day, the CPC warned
of "China's army infiltrated by 'peace disease' requiring a major new "defense posture" just
like the US and NATO.
Within this new "mulit-polar" world, only Russia is cutting its military budge. And
they still seem to have at least one of the most effective conventional war-fighting
capability, and their next generation nuclear deterrence looks nothing short of awesome. They
have pipelines to build, and like China, long-term economic contracts to sign.
No dear b, for once I think you've got it wrong. I see Trump asking three question for all of
which there is one answer.
1. Angela. You tell us that NATO ought to concentrate on the Russian threat. If Russia is a
threat, why are you buying gas from it?
2. Angela, You tell us that Russia is a reliable energy supplier. If Russia is a reliable
supplier, why are you telling us it's a threat?
3. Angela. I hope you're not saying Russia is a threat and its gas is cheap but the USA will
save us.
The answer to all 3 questions is: we're out of here, defend yourselves. It's Trump cutting
the Gordian Knot of obligations.
Aarrgghh! Besides some continuity problems when I recut and pasted the above since the links
weren't working, I also left out the following completely.
That could be why, even though the US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review observes we are changing
from: "For decades, the United States led the world in efforts to reduce the role and number
of nuclear weapons." To " the current, pragmatic assessment of the threats we face and the
uncertainties regarding the future security environment." Which conveniently can use up, or
more likely go over budget on former President CareBear's additional $10 Billion in nuclear
weapons development over the succeeding 10 years.
I'm no fan of Angela, but she/Germany have been trying to tamp down this AZ Empire New
Cold War against Russia since at least 2013. When she, Putin, Yanukovych (elected President
of Ukraine) and the leaders of the Maidan protests got together and signed an agreement in
which Yanukovych acquiesced to essentially all of the "peaceful, pro-democracy protesters'"
demands, it was the Asst. Secretary of the US State (Vickie Nuland) who said, "F*ck the EU"
"We can midwife this thing" and even appointed the new PM "Yats is the guy."
She was then an active participant in the Minsk Agreement to end the "anti-terrorism
action" Which our gal Vickie shredded publicly the next day because the AZ Empire thought the
Uki-Nazis would finish off those Muscovite, Colorado hicks and (can I post the Ukie terms for
Jews?) in the east like they'd done in the south.
Then, Angela was involved in the Minsk II cease-fire/road to peace (when the Uki-Nazis
were being driven out of the east, and were about to lose Mariupol).
I know there are others in addition to b here who know this stuff better than I. Isn't
this about right?
"It is extremely hypocritical for Poland to lobby against Nord Stream when it significantly
contributes to Poland's energy security."
There are other explanations that could be better documented, like stupidity and insanity.
BTW, Poland has big pollution problem, and a major part is that many older multifamily
buildings and new single family building has polluting heating with coal furnaces and stoves.
Natural gas does not generate pollutants except for CO2 which is not affecting health, plus
it uses less than half of carbon than coal.
On the other note, merely to get enough gas for internal needs, Poland could get enough
through Belorus. But if you need to add re-export to Ukraine, that is not enough. So Poles
can pride themselves of not being as stupid and insane as their southeastern neighbors.
Well stated. There are many gordian knots. The BIS should be dissolved
""Responsible fiscal practice requires a government to fill spending gaps left by
fluctuations in non-government spending patterns. In that way, the government takes
responsibility for maintaining full employment. What the Troika did in Greece was the
exemplar of irresponsible fiscal practice.""
I really really like the way you include a 'solution' to a global problem in this analysis b.
To many times we just speak to the choir and rarely are solutions presented regardless where
they lie on the possible/probable line. Did I mention I really like this SA. Thanks.
karlof1 @7. In graph 1, of actual dollar expenditure, NATO spending was going down until
2012, then it started to rise again, and has been a net increase every year since 2015.
In graph 4, per nation spending relative to GDP went up from 2014 to 2017 in almost all
member states notably, except the US and UK, but even then, US went from 3.58% to slightly
over 3.5% and UK from 2.14% to a touch over 2.1%, so both are above the 2% "minimum."
Graphs 5, 6, 7 all show actual dollar expenditures dropping from 1010 to 2014, but then
increasing every year since then.
Perhaps I misunderstood your point. But it sure looks like NATO spending has been rising
since this "New Cold War" really kicked into gear in 3024/2015.
"One big reason they deposed the Shah who was planning to go big with nuclear power with
orders for about 20 French and /or German reactors"
Another hat in the ring for CIA/MI6/Mossad helping to install the Islamic part of the
Iranian Revolution? WooHoo!
"China basically has a monopoly on these metals"
Yes. Bear in mind though that "discovered" after the US invasion/occupation is that
Afghanistan has perhaps the world's largest reserves of lithium. And the "Democratic
Republic" of Congo also has much rare earth wealth. As in fact do other parts of central
Africa. Hence, the AZ Empire's new "AfriCom" military classification and the reinstallation
of French Colonialism.
I'm not so up on this whole tariff thing. Hasn't Germany had substantial tariffs on
automobiles for years now? Do those tariffs apply to other EU states?
Daniel
I have read in the past that Afghan is very rich in a number of minerals and China was
looking at development there as part of it road belt intuitive. Going by the state
Afghanistan is in I can't see the US extracting minerals there. US squatting in Afghanistan
may be simply to deny Chinese access to the mineral deposits.
If NS2 goes online and EU goes dark to Qatar, especially if Iran corks Qatar with a South
pipeline, the Middle East economies will collapse into chaos, and nobody will be buying
either US guns or butter.
US'own economy is going down the crapper with No Taxes for the Rich running an $800B
Deficit, and private Fed Bank ratcheting up $50B at a gulp in interest-only Debt financing
...forever. Collapse of MediCare and MediCaid will bleed even more out of the retsil economy,
which will increase the Deficit, into a National Debt death spiral, and collapse of the
public pensiin systems.
If you project MIC arms spendung and Fed interest-only bleed out, Trump's illegal 25% Fed
VAT sales tax (aka 'tariffs) and EU/RU/CH counter-tariffs, all US health and human services
will be insolvent by 2025.
When that happens, and could happen much sooner, the world we knew in 20C will be
inverted, upended, chaos, albeit, only chaos for the Lower Classes, Workers and Private
Pensioners/401Ks. The Deep Purple Mil.Gov UniParty will...uhh...find a way!
@kgw
"You are agreeing with an idiot, no matter what...Europe has nothing to worry about with
regards to Russia. Unless they threaten Russia."
Well shit or get off the pot why don't you - "idiot" Trump is calling your bluff - stop
freeloading off a (by your assessment) non-existent threat, or he'll stop it for you. Can't
have it both ways. The US can't keep funding your crappy little joke of a disintegrating
"European Union" for ever. Sooner or later you'll have to put on big-boy pants.
James, @44. I largely agree with (and have called for) Patrick's recommendations for what
Ukraine should do now. I don't see anything in there that contravenes what I wrote about
Germany's role in the AZ Empire's coup and resulting war, though.
Do you remember those events, or should I dig out citations? I was following it pretty
closely from mid/late 2013 until it quieted down in 2015. Since then, I just pick up articles
here and there.
When you'd have to be an idiot to agree with Trump ($1 TRILLION MIC arms profiteering
slash National Police State slash MIC Indefinite Detention Gulags), but now you'd have to be
an idiot NOT to agree with Trump (drag EU into the funeral pyre)m then you know it must be
the Red Army v Blue Army media spewfest and the National Novitiate in November is near.
Rahhh.
E pluribus now get back to work. Your 2Q ONE TRILLION Deep Purple State tithe-tibute is
due in 3 more days, ONE TRILKION that you and your hiers will never see again.
USA govt's assessment of China and Russia as "revisionist" should be understood as a
determination to remain the hegemonic power. Thus, we have Cold War II. From that
perspective, European objections to more "defense" spending are considered naive (or worse)
as Europe's fate is views as tied to that of the Empire.
I think European elites are much more likely to side with USA than European people. If
the Trump's talk with Putin doesn't go well, we are likely to see increased scaremongering to
rectify public opinion.
Not to mention those same rare earth metals are getting out of DRC despite millions of
murderous deaths and disease.
And the oil started flowing out of Libya before Gaddafi was even lynched. Oil's been
flowing out of "Kurdish" Iraq into Israel come hell or high water. And of course, ISIL was
shipping Syrian oil through Turkey and Jordan (if not Israel) throughout.
Chaos can make doing business harder, but that can also increase profits. As the
posters said in the '60s, "War Is Not Good For Children And Other Living Things." But it's
great for the psychopaths.
Trump's native approach I suspect may be something like that of fellow-New Yorker and great
American chess player Bobby Fischer who famously said: "Try something!"
That sounds about right. I would only add that Minsk Accord is another example of a
non-agreement. Ukraine never signed yet Russia is accused of not implementing this
non-agreement whenever people feel the need for some more Russia-bashing.
Here is an article that explains the relationship between Russian pipelines, USA
sanctions on Russia, MH17, Crimea, and Syria. It is an excellent background to comprehend
Trump's accusations about Germany's purchase of gas from Russia. Patrick Armstrong and Pat
Lang seem to think that Trump is about to cut NATO support, reduce/eliminate sanctions
against Russia, and redirect relations with Israel, but I am not persuaded. https://www.unz.com/article/why-was-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-shot-down/
by Kees van der Pijl He also wrote a book on this topic.
Trump follows the footsprints of the post-USA Civil War Republican Party policy. From
Chapter 1 of The Politicos 1865-1896 by Matthew Josephson (published in 1938)
"The new industrialist and financial class and the farmers of the North emerged the
greatest gainers by far among the mixed coalition of classes which fought to win the social
revolution underlying the War Between the States. But no less triumphant and dominent was the
war party itself, the youthful organization of professional politicians and officeholders
known as the Republican Party. A minority party in 1860, and victor in a three-cornered
electoral contest, it knew during the war the intoxication of unchallenged power and fortune
beyond calculation, leaving it in command of all the offices of the Federal Government!"
From Beard, Contemporary American History, p.91
It had the management of the gigantic war finances, through which it attached to itself
the interests ... of the great capitalists and bankers throughout the North. It raised
revenues by a high tariff which placed thousands of manufacturers under debt to it and
linked their fortunes also with its fate ... Railway financiers and promoters of all kinds
had to turn to it for privileges and protection...
jackrabbit@59
surprised to hear you say Ukraine did not sign MinskII. On the contrary, I read that it was
signed by LD Kuchma, Second President of Ukraine. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Signatories
The document was signed by:[23]
Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
Separatist's leaders Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_II#Signatories
All-night negotiations on Wednesday ended with the signing of the Declaration of Minsk in
support of the "Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements" by Angela
Merkel of Germany, Francois Hollande of France, Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine and Vladimir
Putin of Russia and release of the full agreement. The talks, according to some reports,
almost collapsed near the end as Ukraine and rebel leaders balked at signing.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/02/13/putin-comes-out-on-top-in-new-minsk-agreement/#21ffe18f4ede
From Chapter 1 of The Politicos 1865-1896 by Matthew Josephson (published in 1938):
"The prosecution of the war against rebellion had been associated with a protective tariff
levied against a hated England. which profited and sought to profit further from our
disaster. With the close of the war, a cry arose from the Northeastern region that high
tariffs were needed to pay the war debt. and an outburst of high Protectionism followed in
1866."
Everything the US does works to undermine its old power in the new world. We see this
continually. Trump is an accelerator. But whether any of this is intentional and actually
desired by a part of US vested interests, is still an open question.
Nevertheless, as we watch, we see every action of the US working to cement the bonds
of its opposition in the rest of the world. From the Escobar article linked by karlof1 above,
we see the pressure on the Middle East to reject the US and turn for safety to the Eurasian
institutions of commerce, finance and national security. The same thing is happening to
Europe.
Some days I think that Trump was a brilliantly inspired choice of some deep state players
to further their agenda of fragmenting the old arrangements to allow new alignments to come
into place - to modernize the elite control of the world. But most days I just don't know.
What can one say about a force this magisterial and still this enigmatic?
I was talking with a friend today about Trump. She said she sees his approach as quite
typical of US business style. You come out with the big stick, knowing it will get chopped in
half by the time you get to agreement. But at least you end up with half a stick. Gotta start
big. You don't ask, you don't get.
This style worked perfectly with North Korea, which was a standout among the nations of
the world, in my opinion, for understanding superbly well how Trump played the game, and
played it right back. The result was a meeting of equals, where something could actually get
done. But NK worked hard to develop the bargaining chip to put on the table too. Words
without substance don't work.
I'm not seeing many other countries responding with this same kind of exaggerated bravado
- it is a very US way of doing business. Most countries are simply working to go around the
US. Europe seems to be doing the same thing, simply rejecting and turning away. But the
European countries could certainly create bargaining chips if they wanted to play the Trump
game of negotiation. I truly suspect his style is something they're still getting to grips
with. Perhaps they should call Kim for pointers.
I think ultimately we are seeing two things at work, and in tandem: the natural style of
Trump, and the very real and unstoppable current of history. Whether either force is aware of
the other, I can't say. Like the success or failure of the French Revolution, it's too soon
to tell.
@65 Good summary. I think the Europeans simply don't know what to make of him. The look on
Stoltenberg's face said it all. They just don't know how to respond to someone so direct.
Maybe Putin is the only one who can talk his language....but not in public.
China's taking a page from Mahan regarding sea power. NATO graphs: I mentioned Obama
ordered an increase in spending and the chart shows the compliance. The ups and downs
correlate well with wars and major recessions.
@53 daniel... what you said earlier - i think much the same way... i would be curious to know
more of how patrick armstrong sees all that, but i think it is much the same as us too..
those links @53 reflect how messed up ukraine is at present.. having a failed state on your
doorstep doesn't sound like fun and that works both ways for europe and russia.. i guess that
was the usa ( and israels?) plan... screw up countries so they don't function properly, so
you have to spend a lot of imf money to fix them.. works for wall st, lol..
@38 "The answer to all 3 questions is: we're out of here, defend yourselves"
Patrick, I'm confused: they are meant to defend themselves against whom, exactly? T he
equation as it stands now is this: A muscle-bound USA + an anaemic Europe "deterring" a
Russian Federation that has no intention of invading.
Remove the muscle-bound Americans from the equation and this is what remains: An anaemic
Europe "deterring" a Russian Federation that has no intention of invading.
Since Russia is no threat either way then there is no need - none whatsoever - for the
Europeans to increase their military expenditure to "defend themselves" against a
non-existent Russian threat.
Indeed, the only reason the Europeans would feel that they might have to prepare to
"defend themselves" would be because that muscle-bound US military is now outside the tent
pissing in, not inside the tent pissing out.
@68 Maybe they thought Ukraine would join the EU at some point but Crimea was the prize. The
plan was to turn Crimea into a NATO base. Putin spoiled everything.
Wikipedia also says (as part Leonid Kuchma's bio):
Since July 2014, Kuchma has been Ukraine's representative at the semi-official peace
talks regarding the ongoing War in Donbass.
Why are they "semi-official"? Because Ukraine would not talk to the rebels
directly. They believe that the rebels are sponsored by Russia so the dispute is between
Russia and Ukraine. They would not talk to the rebels as that might convey legitimacy to the
rebels. That's why the Trialteral Contact Group was set up. The signers of Minsk II (Russia,
Germany, France, Kuchma/Ukraine) are merely "guarantors" of an agreement between Ukraine and
the Donbas rebels - neither of which has actually signed.
Kuchma "represents" Ukraine but can't bind Ukraine. Although Poroschenko attended some of
the talks, he never signed the agreement.
Minsk and Minsk II have reduced conflict somewhat but Ukraine has dragged its feet every
step of the way. For example: they were slow to pull back heavy artillery as called for under
the accord, then they wouldn't pass laws that were necessary for other provisions of the
accord.
The Minsk accords outlined a detailed procedure through which Donetsk and Luhansk would
receive "special status," hold internationally-recognized elections, and then negotiate
their reintegration into Ukraine directly with Kiev, including basic constitutional reforms
to federalize the country. No substantive steps have ever been undertaken by either side to
implement these terms, and the new "Donbass Integration Law" now makes clear that Kiev
expects the country to be re-united on its terms alone, though probably not anytime
soon.
Ukrainian lawmakers, who overwhelmingly passed the bill on Jan. 19, argue that it
simply normalizes a situation that has long existed but was clouded by misleading jargon
and official fealty to the non-functioning Minsk accords .
Poroschenko signed the bill into law in February 2018.
@dh "Maybe Putin is the only one who can talk his language"
Going by what Putin said of Trump after their 2 1/2 hour meeting in Vietnam, it seems more
likely Trump talks in Putin's language when meeting actual leaders. Same would go for his
meeting with KJU, and I would guess Xi.
Since whenever, America has been the proxy front for the current instantiation of
empire with the core of control being ongoing private finance with global tools like BIS,
IMF, World Bank, etc. Since WWII and even before the goal of empire is to have all of the
world under its control. Since the engine of empire is a supra-national matrix of private
finance control, the enemy becomes any nations who do not want to be impregnated with the
Western model of private Central Bank, an oligarchy , inheritance, private property,
etc.
The empire model of growth through wars and boom/bust expansion has reached its
"logical" limits and the the existential question has become, blow everything all up or agree
to a multipolar world. I think that the elite hope Trump's bluster will make it so they do
not have to answer that existential question.....yet
The EU has always been a bastard child with little chance of growing up because there was
no finance core agreements to manage the national variations within. I am surprised it has
lasted as long as it has given the historical tension between the nations. The US has similar
social tensions but our structure has homoginized the economy enough that we haven't
imploded...yet
The key to this process which I believe is being managed by the elite is at what point are
the big decisions made and by whom. Given the accelerated nature of the managed
deconstruction, I suspect the elite believe they will retain their mystique of power long
enough to not lose grip on private finance running the Western world. The EU countries will
have to come to terms with their oligarchs and determine what path forward works for all of
eurasia. I don't see the current leadership of any EU countries as having the public's best
interest in mind or action.
Are we seeing Western plutocracy fail of its own "weight"? Perhaps so.....nice
I LUV how Trump stomped on all those preaning European elite scumbags. He's my hero
for pooping all over their little pride parade. Tell em like it is Donald they call you
stupid and all those other useless names. Your stinking GENIUS. MORE and an ENCORE!!!!
Agree with Patrick. It is surprising to still see so much animosity towards a
president who has done more to combat the absurdity of NATO and globalism than I can remember
any other President doing. The ball is in the EU elites court, now. Put up or shut up and I
believe it makes no difference to Trump. We are about to find out who is REALLY to blame for
marching lockstep with the current of hypercentralization (globalism): the Trump admin or the
EU elitez.
Sorry for the break in the Trump-bashing. Let's all get back to that good ol'
America-hatin' catharsis.
Since the start of the 70ties I have heard exactly the same tune from the US and the
blathering idiot in charge now has not changed the tune; ever since have I had to listen to
this "The Russians are coming" tune, with the rhetoric getting ever more shrill and false,
1989 brought a brief and marvelous, albeit very short pause to this tune, and for a few years
the US Kleptocracy was happy plundering the former USSR. When Russia resisted the plunder i.
e. Putin was elected, the tune started over again from where it was paused, disregarding the
fact that Russia does not in any way compare to the former USSR.
N, noooe , it is still "The Russians are coming" playing, but with a new beat, pepped up,
but same substance. But we are not listening anymore, the disgraceful actions and evil
behavior of The United States of Mordor, have come into the open (The internet, appreciate
it, we will not for long have it in its present form), even the most daft of us quietly
starts wondering.
Well I am not daft, and the questioning ended 4 decades ago, The US must be resisted. Our
politicians here on the continent must wake up and reject US imperialism and militarism, and
devise our own defenses if deemed necessary, many European nations are not at the living
standards we enjoy in Scandinavia, surely the money were better spent on that.
If the Poles and Baltic's want American troops on their soil, withdraw EU spending, we do
not need their insane sabre rattling. (Especially the Poles are vile, they forget that when
Hitler invaded, they had been a fascist dictatorship for years).
What exactly has Trump done to combat the absurdity of globalization and NATO besides
talk? While he stopped TPP and TIPP he is negotiating similar agreements bilaterally. Also
his Personal Empire benefits from globalization.
US only contributes 1% of their defense budget to NATO's direct costs so pulling out of
NATO would make hardly a dent in the budget except to increase costs to relocate all the
personnel and hardware. Those bases are invaluableHis calling for NATO countries to increase
defense spending benefits US and Israeli companies who make up the military and security
industrial complex and wont do squat to lower the defense budget
Born and raised in Southern California, been here 70 years... The US has been
manipulating NATO ever since it was formed. Most NATO officials are vetted by the US. Trump
is an idiot, like the bulk of US politicians.
@kgw
"You are agreeing with an idiot, no matter what...Europe has nothing to worry about with
regards to Russia. Unless they threaten Russia."
Well shit or get off the pot why don't you - "idiot" Trump is calling your bluff - stop
freeloading off a (by your assessment) non-existent threat, or he'll stop it for you. Can't
have it both ways. The US can't keep funding your crappy little joke of a disintegrating
"European Union" for ever. Sooner or later you'll have to put on big-boy pants. Methinks this
guy has a good take on this.
You're assuming Europe's leaders aren't bought and paid for by Wall Bank Street Banksters.
The system is rigged. I wouldn't doubt that they go into lapdog mode and bow to blowhard
Trump.
Mrs Merkel emphasised that the German armed forces would remain commanded by parliament and
not the government, and "would not take part in every mission".
This here is a clear description of the issues
involved . Of course, in the rivalry between the US and Russia, Europe's interest is best
served playing the two off each other united. It is no surprise both - the US and Russia -
have a strategic interest to split Europe. You don't believe Russia doing this, too? This
here is from Greece . No, their government is not anti-Russian.
Macedonia is expecting an invitation at the NATO summit in Brussels this week to join
following its landmark deal with Greece whereby it will change its name to the Republic of
North Macedonia. Moscow strongly opposes NATO expansion.
...
The Greek diplomatic source told Reuters Athens would expel two diplomats and bar two
other Russians from entering the country due to concerns that they were involved in rallies
in Greece against the deal with Macedonia and that they had attempted to offer money to
Greek state officials.
Becoming a "neutral" military force would end this type of nonsense. Trump acting like
mafia is another strong incentive.
"The U.S. military is the biggest socialist organization of the world. It is
egalitarian and its citizens, i.e. the soldiers, are extremely well cared for. It runs its
own healthcare system through the Veterans Health Administration."
A wonderful conclusion b.
Does anyone know of any in-depth economic analysis of the U.S. military as a state
welfare system for its members, as well as the impact of aggregate military spending on the
general purchasing power of citizens within the society at large?
And US military spending is also an enormous job-creation and wealth-redistribution
program in the form of defense contractors spread all over the nation, where they are
especially vital for areas with weak employment.
The US winds up with a lot of projects it does not need because Congresspeople are not
about to kill a program that employs thousands in their districts.
Why should Germany spend 4% on its military? Didnt see that coming from this blog. Are
germany facing an enemy? If not, its a waste of more money. All this useless money could be
spend to actually strenghten the welfare state. Something that actually matters and are much
needed. So which enemy is Germany facing? Either Trump is right that Russia is a threat to
Germany or hes not. What is it?
The nonbinding motion, which came as the Senate voted to reconcile its version of the
annual defense policy bill with that of the House, expresses the Senate's support for NATO
and calls on negotiators to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to it. The 97-2 vote in the Senate
comes as Trump heads to Brussels.
Trump's "reasoning" makes sense in an infantile sort of way, but there's more too it
than meets the eye, is there not? Trump doesn't just want to Europe to "pay their fair share"
for NATO, which we all know is code for buying more US mil.gear but also to buy their LNG
from US too. It's like NATO is some sort of grotesque, evil franchise where the franchisees
can only buy goods/services from that single source, even though it's crap & inordinately
expensive, and even if you can get it cheaper elsewhere, i.e Russia.
I would love to see those fence-sitting NATO countries tell the US "sure, we'll increase
our mil. spending, but after what we saw in Syria, we'll be buying our gear from Russia"
(more bang for the buck too!) - that would be game, set & match right there!
I think you are wrong, Bernard. It will sell well in Europe too. To what extend were the
themes of the Brexit campaign based on Germany as the slave master of Europe, to exaggerate
slightly? It will also sell well in the US.
Wow! You don't feel that Trump has, by his mere existence and by winning the
presidency, been given a platform of which to decry the myriad injustices of globalization
and to utter things unspeakable by any Prez in the last fifty years?
I don't think you've been paying attention. The proof is in the pudding but what will be
the benefit of raising the spectre of doubt over bad deals like NATO, the current iteration
of world trade, and for animosity towards Russia? Evidently, it ain't worth shit to
predictable TDS-sufferers that hang around here.
So much for those who projected that Trump's demands for an increase in the defense spending
of other members and his scolding of Germany would lead to a weaker Nato! Nato members just
caved to Trump and are increasing their spending and Trump is touting that Nato is stronger
and everyone's doing the kumbaya.
When I say that Trump is establishment on steroids; it's an understatement. Trump is doing
the kissy, kissy with Putin because the plan is to pull Russia away from collaborating with
China. Zionist oligarchs are in league with Trump and Russia will eventually be under their
complete control.
@98 You just don't get it. Trump is fascist establishment. Trump is separating kids from
their mothers. Who does that??? He's a sick sadist.
Europe has an arms industry of their own. I doubt European countries invest their
money into US stuff - they buy their own. Most of the money does not go into weapons anyway,
but personel and administration. Germany contributes to the maintenance and infrastructure of
US bases, but those bases are business, too. This is not Saudi Arabia buying protection. The
real news is that Trump has started
a trade war negotiating by tantrum.
But Trump has a great point: if you claim that Russia is ready to invade you, why you are
buying gas from potential occupier?
Notable quotes:
"... Russia is a near neighbor to Germany. Commerce between relatively close countries is the normal course of events, so what is Trump suggesting, a 1970's style energy embargo on Russia? Depriving Russia the opportunity all trade with her neighbors 'because we said so' is no better than a blockade. ..."
Donald Trump, the 'America First' salesman, came to Brussels today to demand more tribute
to the empire. He wants Europe to buy more U.S. made weapons and to use U.S. liquefied
natural gas (LNG). But his arguments are all wrong. The people in Europe are not impressed by
them and they will reject his appeals.
His first talk in Brussels was
a profoundly wrong bashing of Germany to push it into buying very expensive LNG from U.S.
fracking producers. Trump, Putin's puppet according to the 'resistance', used the Russian
bogeyman to set the scene:
Well, I have to say, I think it's very sad when Germany makes a massive oil and gas deal
with Russia, where you're supposed to be guarding against Russia, and Germany goes out and
pays billions and billions of dollars a year to Russia. ... So we're protect you against Russia, but they're paying billions of dollars to Russia, and
I think that's very inappropriate. And the former Chancellor of Germany is the head of the
pipeline company that's supplying the gas. Ultimately, Germany will have almost 70 percent
of their country controlled by Russia with natural gas.
So you tell me, is that appropriate? I mean, I've been complaining about this from the
time I got in. It should have never been allowed to have happened. But Germany is totally
controlled by Russia , because they will be getting from 60 to 70 percent of their energy
from Russia and a new pipeline. ... Now, if you look at it, Germany is a captive of Russia because they supply. They got rid of
their coal plants. They got rid of their nuclear. They're getting so much of the oil and
gas from Russia. ... I think trade is wonderful. I think energy is a whole different story. I think energy is a
much different story than normal trade. And you have a country like Poland that won't
accept the gas . You take a look at some of the countries -- they won't accept it, because
they don't want to be captive to Russia. But Germany, as far as I'm concerned, is captive
to Russia, because it's getting so much of its energy from Russia. So we're supposed to
protect Germany, but they're getting their energy from Russia. Explain that. And it can't
be explained -- you know that.
Trump was talking about the Nordstream II pipeline which will supply Germany and other
European countries with natural gas from Russia.
It is indeed hard to believe that western european governments would agree to what
Christopher Black calls a "US shakedown". Except that they have been doing so since 1949.
It is important to remember that the US Embassy exerts at least as much influence on the
government as Parliament does. And that Parliaments are full of agents of the the US empire,
in some cases they are actually on the payroll, many more are either US educated, marinated
in the imperialist ideology or in the service of corporations which know that the Empire is
the final guarantor of their survival and capable of crushing them with ease.
That having been said, things are changing, The imperialists cling to power only by exerting
the most extraordinary, and unsustainable, pressure. An example of which is the ludicrously
over-wrought campaign against the left in the UK being waged by the Israeli Embassy, with the
assistance of the entire MSM.
B's arguments are correct but it will take a mobilised and politically conscious public
opinion to impose them on governments full of people who see themselves as Washington's
servants and expect to be rewarded one day for being loyal to the US and for betraying their
countrymen and, of course, women.
The question is if Europe will truly continue to bark and bite at the deep state or if this
is all just for show and they'll eventually capitulate. I'm worried that this is nothing more
than political theatre. I'm not expecting much from the Europeans. But we'll see.
Europe buying LNG from the US just makes no sense at all. Aside from the cost, LNG is
difficult to transport and work with; the whole idea is just nuts, especially considering the
quantities involved. In addition, Russian gas is plentiful and cheap, so to expect Europe not
to use it is also nuts.
Could it be that Trump fully understands this and the hidden agenda is to get out of NATO and
bring home the troops?
Russia is a near neighbor to Germany. Commerce between relatively close countries is the
normal course of events, so what is Trump suggesting, a 1970's style energy embargo on
Russia? Depriving Russia the opportunity all trade with her neighbors 'because we said so' is
no better than a blockade.
One of these days, my country is going to get a taste of, 'no soup for you' and we will be
screaming like stuck pigs.
Yes, I am obsessed w/Sean Hannity
It's his earnest, self-righteous, mind numbingly idiotic voice, I'm hypnotized. Ollie
North was on his show and they were going on about 'Iran's' saber rattling by threatening to
close the Straits of Hormuz. Sean rattled off how the EU would wake up and it would be the
end of Iran's belligerence.
He neglected to mention that this 'threat' is only coming after our act of war by actively
trying to cut off all of Iran's oil exports which is no better than a naval blockade.
Much can be gleaned from
this NATO Defence Expenditure pdf with special attention given to graphs 5, 6
& 7. Since the dissolution of the USSR, military spending as share of GDP by EU &
Canada decreased about 50% as shown in Graph 5. It should also be noted that the demand made
by the Outlaw US Empire for EU NATO members to increase their wastage of monies on military
equipment began with Obama in 2015, with compliance noted by the graphs in 2016. When Obama
gave his orders, very little squawking was heard from EU/Canada governments, although it was
quite different from the public. Of course, EU/Canada are caught in a trap of their own
design--Russia's quite obviously not the "aggressive" nation that must be defended against
using all necessary means as promoted by Russophobic Media Propaganda as they all trade and
benefit from commercial interactions; thus, bean counters see NATO as a wastage of vital,
finite monies that ought to be spent on productive endeavors advancing the human condition.
In national legislatures: "Russia's a growing threat to humanity!!--BUT--No, I'm voting
against any increase in military spending as there's no need for it."
European members of NATO don't need such an organization. If they were to join the Russian
and Chinese enterprises to unite Eurasia into a common economic zone, then the need for NATO
would become indefensible. And their finally becoming independent of the Outlaw US Empire's
diktats would provide the impetus required to finally solve the status of Palestine and
reaffirmation of the paramountcy of International Law as a greatly expanded Multipolar Order
would be established. The United Nations might actually begin to function as designed.
Is Trump trying to push NATO apart by injecting it with a dose of American Chaos? Force
EU/Canada to declare their independence from the Outlaw US Empire for numerous reasons? All
of which would force the contraction of the Overseas element of the Empire and install an
actual defense policy, not one aiming to control the world? Is this Trump's way to force a
Neocon retreat?
Meanwhile, China charms Arabia
"Under the radar,..., the eighth ministerial meeting of the China-Arab States Cooperation
Forum (CASCF), established in 2004, sailed on in Beijing, hosted by President Xi Jinping."
Please note the article's citing of new demands made to Iraq by the Outlaw US Empire, which
has their roots in Trump's appraisal of the situation.
I'd say this is why you do not mix a military alliance with politics. Nor allow federal
presidents to command and represent an army. Trump's retarded bullshit aside the USA
shouldn't be holding committee meetings with allies without an war. An alliance shouldn't be
considered active during peacetime. An ally is a figment of political imagination until
military necessity requires it in actuality. Historically and currently a military alliance
is treated as a contract for warmongering against an outnumbered enemy while at peace or at
war. Which is why honorable people (currently very few) eschew alliances or non-aggression
agreements until they become a defensive requirement. If President Trump want's to crash NATO
with no survivor's, more power to him.
The bright side of Trump bullying is revealing NATO astronomical hypocrisy as they join
psychotic delusions about Russian menace they refuse to put money where their mouth is and
shamelessly disclose their vassal status begging for American military support for free.
All that knowing well that there is no threat from Russia that cannot be eliminated simply
by good neighborly relation with Russia not by spending $billions on otherwise useless
fraudulent US MIC junk.
Is that nor reverse psychology that is in play here, put up or shut up, let me make deal
with Russia so you do not have to spend on military rediculous sums to match your delusional
rhetorics about Russian threat.
Trump is s gambling man, wants to make money for US MIC on anti Russian lies or make money
for US industry on Russia peace and cooperation truths.
"Stoltenberg: [ ] I think that two World Wars and the Cold War taught us that we are
stronger together than apart.
Trump: But how can you be together when a country is getting its energy from the person
you want protection against or from the group that you want protection?
Stoltenberg: Because we understand that when we stand together, also in dealing with
Russia, we are stronger. I think what we have seen is that --
Trump: No, you're just making Russia richer. You're not dealing with Russia. You're making
Russia richer."
You'd have to be an idiot not to agree with Trump here.
A notable difference between the way Trump treats the likes of Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong Un
- all leaders in their own right - to the way he treats the EU poodles. Zero respect for the
poodles.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jul 11, 2018 6:40:20 PM |
22
"... The big advantage for Germany is that (Nordstream I and Nordstream II] pipelines
do not run through any other country ..."
That's because idiot EU / NATO countries like Denmark, who would gladly accept having the
pipelines pass through their land and maritime territories (and the transit fees that go with
them) if Russian gas were not flowing through them, prefer to support the Nazi whacko
Banderites ruling Ukraine who whine that all Russian gas should transit Ukrainian territory
in deteriorating pipelines. So Denmark and others refuse to host any part of the pipelines at
all.
When Gazprom starts sending all gas through Nordstream I and II and pipelines through the
Black Sea, completely bypassing Ukraine, then that country will be close to bankruptcy.
Denmark and everyone else in the EU and NATO had better be ready to rescue the
Banderites.
Der Speigel 's fact-checking article of Trump's assertions provides some
interesting facts, all in German, which I used Yandex to translate. To counterargue Trump's
most pointed assertion that Germany's a captive of Russia, the author provides this rebuke:
"Russland ist auf den Abnehmer Deutschland angewiesen. Die Deutschen benötigten die
Russen vor allem als Lieferanten für Erdgas." (Russia is dependent on the customer
Germany. The Germans needed the Russians mainly as suppliers of natural gas.) Overall:
"Für Russland ist Deutschland als Handelspartner wichtiger als andersherum. Von allen
deutschen Importen kamen 2017 nur drei Prozent aus Russland - und lediglich zwei Prozent der
Exporte gehen in Putins Reich. Für die Russen war die Bundesrepublik mit einem Anteil
von 8,6 Prozent ihres gesamten Außenhandels der zweitwichtigste Partner hinter China.
Und mehr als zwei Drittel der russischen Exporte nach Deutschland waren Erdgas, Öl und
Steinkohle." (For Russia, Germany is more important as a trading partner than elsewhere. Of
all German imports, only three percent came from Russia in 2017 - and only two percent of
exports go to Putin's Reich. For the Russians, Germany was the second most important Partner
behind China, accounting for 8.6 percent of its total foreign trade. And more than two-thirds
of Russian exports to Germany were natural gas, Oil and coal.)
Clearly, the total trade turnover between Russia and Germany represents just a small
fraction of their totals, and both nations would likely find a replacement if a total embargo
was to ensue.
The US began pressuring countries to forego nuclear power to support the Petro Dollar in
1978. One big reason they deposed the Shah who was planning to go big with nuclear power with
orders for about 20 French and /or German reactors
The TMI accident was likely a false flag run by the newly established FEMA.
If the restrictions on recycling nuclear fuel rods were eliminated there would not be a
disposal problem.
Germanys decision to phase out nuclear makes US happy. Germany will only accept Nord
Stream 2 if it does not bypass Ukraine. This also makes US happy although they would prefer
no Nord Stream 2. As said up thread this is as much about posturing before the Putin meeting
and gaining leverage.
A bit O/T but it appears rare metals needed by US military and tech industries are on the
list of products subject to tarrifs. China basically has a monopoly on these metals so the
only short term purpose is to drive up prices for weapons and tech gadgets which get passed
onto the taxpayer/consumer. In effect the tarrifs are just another revenue source to finance
tax cuts to corporations and the rich.
Longer term of course the tarrifs make mining some of these metals in the US more
feasible, at some cost to the environment , seeing as EPA has been gutted. But for that to
happen the tarrifs need to be more or less a permanent thing. Its not like they dont have
tarrifs on food and clothes from China. Just expanding the revenue base. The middle class
takes the hit in the end, whats left of it anyways
Trump as a used car salesman does not make much sense either. In fact I don't think he can
spell to sense. It telling that he is impervious to the mood in both NATO and the EU.
His middle name should be clueless. He is truly clueless, he will not get an increase in
defense expenditure, it would be political self goal (Hello Engeland, no not football, that's
more like clueless) for any major political party to demand that, the electorate across
Europe are firmly against it. Ohh and who cares about Perfidious Albion, they are not part of
Europe anymore, they are some Islands with bad weather in the North Sea.
Seabird sanctuary ?
Europe hopefully comes to its senses and casts of the American yoke, and fashion its own
defences, based on ITS needs.
thanks b.. informative and interesting comments from everyone too.. thanks..
trump is a hard guy to read in some respects... he is like a blunt object on the one hand,
but he might have some alternative purpose in mind, which would include the meet with trump
in 5 days..
if he wants to get rid of nato, i think he is going about it the right way.. i can't see
why he would though as that wouldn't benefit the mil complex...i can't see the purpose of
nato either way and perhaps it would be best if the poodles let go of having the usa as it's
leader in the 21st century.. consider a different approach... i am not sure what canada and
other western type poodles can do with all this..
@7 karlof1.. thanks for the pepe link... i just don't see the approach - bullying - taken
by the usa to iraq, as working out.. i am listing the demands for others to see
firsthand..
"
1. 30% of all the oil in Iraq should be American-controlled – and it's up to the US do
what it wants with it.
2. Washington must have full access and control of Iraqi banks.
3. All business and trade with Iran must cease right now.
4. The Hashd al-Shaabi, known as People Mobilization Units (PMUs), instrumental in the
victorious fight against Daesh (Islamic State),
must be immediately disbanded."
the usa takes this approach based on weakness, not strength... in fact - if one was to
read trumps comments on the surface here - it is the same thing that b has highlighted in
this post.. again - the usa is not working from a place of strength.. it is like a wild
animal in the last phase of it's life - not good..
Lost in the story is fact it is not new supply of natural gas to Europe. It is new pipe
lines including two others with the sole intent of bypassing Ukraine. Presently near all
Russian natural gas passes through Ukraine on its way to Western Europe and particularly ..
Germany. The Ukraine regime has been reaping the benefit of transmission fees and stealing
billions of cubic meters of gas, on which they also charged transmission fees. This was the
basis behind a recent dispute panel finding in favor of Ukraine and the gas theft. The
Americans and willing European Poodles would very much like to keep the gas flowing through
Naziville where they would maintain a strangle hold. Gazprom, the principle Russian supplier,
more or less said f**K you and formed consortiums to build new pipe lines
@32 So if Germany gets gas through Nordstream they are 'controlled by Russia' but if they
get it via Ukraine they aren't. Seems Nordstream would be good insurance against Ukrainian
meddling. Cheaper too, a very sound business strategy that Trump should appreciate.
"... President Trump's demand last week that OPEC "reduce prices now" or US military protection of OPEC countries may not continue almost sounded desperate. But if anything, Trump's bluntness is refreshing: if, as he suggests, the purpose of the US military – with a yearly total budget of a trillion dollars – is to protect OPEC members in exchange for "cheap oil," how cheap is that oil? ..."
"... Exactly how traditional 'US Mideast policies' benefit the average American however remains a mystery. Many of these questionable policies are never critically examined in the open – at least not the big ones involving that 'special relationship' with you-know-who. Never. ..."
"... Iran's crime? That nation's alleged 'sponsorship of terrorism' in support of the Palestinian struggle against Zionist occupation, as well as other anti-Zionist resistance movements in Lebanon, Syria and beyond. ..."
"... Yet it is Israel that is foremost occupying power in that region and it is Israel that is the expanding nuclear power. Meanwhile, the Zionist-lead BDS campaign against Iran is nothing less than a full-blown economic war. At the same time, Israel benefits from unconditional and continuous US subsidies. ..."
"... In no small way, Israel sees its mission to dominate the region and expand its borders as a religious duty. Destiny. This puts Israel in a class by itself. And unlike its neighbors (including Iran) Israel has nuclear WMD. ..."
President Trump is finding that his threats and heated rhetoric do not always have the
effect he wishes. As his Administration warns countries to stop buying Iranian oil by November
or risk punishment by the United States, a nervous international oil market is pushing prices
ever higher, threatening the economic prosperity he claims credit for. President Trump's
response has been to demand that OPEC boost its oil production by two million barrels per day
to calm markets and bring prices down.
Perhaps no one told him that Iran was a founding member of OPEC?
When President Trump Tweeted last week that Saudi Arabia agreed to begin pumping additional
oil to make up for the removal of Iran from the international markets, the Saudis very quickly
corrected him, saying that while they could increase capacity if needed, no promise to do so
had been made.
The truth is, if the rest of the world followed Trump's demands and returned to sanctions
and boycotting Iranian oil, some 2.7 million barrels per day currently supplied by Iran would
be very difficult to make up elsewhere. Venezuela, which has enormous reserves but is also
suffering under, among other problems, crippling US sanctions, is shrinking out of the world
oil market.
Iraq has not recovered its oil production capacity since its "liberation" by the US in 2003
and the al-Qaeda and ISIS insurgencies that followed it.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that "a complete shutdown of Iranian sales could push oil
prices above $120 a barrel if Saudi Arabia can't keep up." Would that crash the US economy?
Perhaps. Is Trump willing to risk it?
President Trump's demand last week that OPEC "reduce prices now" or US military
protection of OPEC countries may not continue almost sounded desperate. But if anything,
Trump's bluntness is refreshing: if, as he suggests, the purpose of the US military –
with a yearly total budget of a trillion dollars – is to protect OPEC members in exchange
for "cheap oil," how cheap is that oil?
At the end, China, Russia, and others are not only unlikely to follow Trump's demands that
Iran again be isolated: they in fact stand to benefit from Trump's bellicosity toward Iran. One
Chinese refiner has just announced that it would cancel orders of US crude and instead turn to
Iran for supplies. How many others might follow and what might it mean?
Ironically, President Trump's "get tough" approach to Iran may end up benefitting
Washington's named adversaries Russia and China – perhaps even Iran. The wisest approach
is unfortunately the least likely at this point: back off from regime change, back off from
war-footing, back off from sanctions. Trump may eventually find that the cost of ignoring this
advice may be higher than he imagined.
Trump may eventually find that the cost of ignoring [the advice to back off from Iran]
may be higher than he imagined.
Perhaps he's counting on not being President by then. Another case of IBGYBG (I'll be
gone, you'll be gone), an attitude that seems to be infecting bankers, Wall Street, and the
rest of the U.S. élite lately. A cataclysm is coming, and they can see it.
Why is Zio-America treating Iran with such hostility?
Iran and Israel are locked in a vicious cold war. Their animosities date back to mythical
antiquity. One alleged episode is even celebrated in the Jewish celebration of 'Purim'.
Take a look at the breathtaking insight that Gilad Atzmon has to offer about Purim:
In any case, Iran and Israel's antipathies for one another shouldn't concern superpower
America. Except that it does.
Like American television, Washington happens to be Israeli-held territory. Haven't you
heard?
This is why Zio-Washington invariably sides with Israel in all of its disputes, even when
1) Israel is the aggressor, 2) even when Israel is slaughtering powerless civilians who are
protesting their subjugation, and 3) even when US interests are not at stake or even in play.
And this uniform deference from Washington is thoroughly bipartisan. It is 'business as
usual'. It's basically unanimous. Both Parties. No dissent.
Many just call it 'US Mideast policy'. Ironclad. 'Unshakable'. But don't laugh or smirk.
Doing so might be seen as 'anti-Semitic'.
Exactly how traditional 'US Mideast policies' benefit the average American however
remains a mystery. Many of these questionable policies are never critically examined in the
open – at least not the big ones involving that 'special relationship' with
you-know-who. Never.
These rigid policies help explain how Crypto-Israelis in America – using Washington
as their proxy – have successfully brought the US into Israel's cold war against
Iran.
Zionist operatives have not only orchestrated the decades-long freeze of billions of
dollars in Iranian assets that belong to the Iranian people, but they have launched a global
(and crypto-Zionist) 'Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions' campaign against the relatively
peaceful nation of Iran.
Iran's crime? That nation's alleged 'sponsorship of terrorism' in support of the
Palestinian struggle against Zionist occupation, as well as other anti-Zionist resistance
movements in Lebanon, Syria and beyond.
Yet it is Israel that is foremost occupying power in that region and it is Israel that
is the expanding nuclear power. Meanwhile, the Zionist-lead BDS campaign against Iran is
nothing less than a full-blown economic war. At the same time, Israel benefits from
unconditional and continuous US subsidies.
Politicians who dare question this phenomena – or who wander off the Zionist
plantation in Washington – tend to disappear. Rapidly. Journalists, too.
In no small way, Israel sees its mission to dominate the region and expand its borders
as a religious duty. Destiny. This puts Israel in a class by itself. And unlike its neighbors
(including Iran) Israel has nuclear WMD.
Due to Israeli influence here, Americans are not only actively supporting various Zionist
war efforts, but they are also paying billions more for their gasoline since Zionists have
managed to prohibit the purchase Iranian oil throughout the West. These economic 'choices'
are what Americans unwittingly make – even though the 'average Joe' remains totally
unaware of them.
Indeed, even though Iran wants to be a trading partner with America and bring its oil onto
the world market, Zio-Washington says 'NO!' US consumers be damned. The Iranian people be
damned.
This is not the first time that US economic interests have taken a back seat to Israel's.
Please recall the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, Zio-Washington's intervention on behalf of Israel
during that conflict, the ensuing Arab oil embargo, and the disastrous recession that
followed.
But Zio-America never turned it back on Israel, even though American citizens never had
the opportunity to determine their allies or policies one way or another. US support of
Israel is mandatory. It's been this way since LBJ.
Today, Israel is maneuvering Zio-Washington to do to Iran what it did to Iraq, Libya and
Syria; namely, spread destabilization and impose 'creative destruction' upon all nations that
pose any long-term threat to the Zionist State.
With the US and China contemplating their next moves in what is now
officially a trade war, a parallel narrative is developing in the world of energy where Asian
oil refiners are racing to secure crude supplies in anticipation of an escalating trade war
between the US and China, even as Trump demands all US allies cut Iran oil exports to zero by
November 4 following sanctions aimed at shutting the country out of oil markets.
Concerned that the situation will deteriorate before it gets better, Asian refiners are
moving swiftly to secure supplies with South Korea leading the way. Under pressure from
Washington, Seoul has already halted all orders of Iranian oil, according to sources, even as
it braces from spillover effects from the U.S.-China tit-for-tat on trade.
"As South Korea's economy heavily relies on trade, it won't be good for South Korea if the
global economic slowdown happens because of a trade dispute between U.S and China," said Lee
Dal-seok, senior researcher at the Korea Energy Economic Institute (KEEI).
Meanwhile, Chinese state media has unleashed a
full-on propaganda blitzkrieg , slamming Trump's government as a "gang of hoodlums", with
officials vowing retaliation, while the chairman of Sinochem just become China's official
leader of the anti-Trump resistance, quoting Michelle Obama's famous slogan "
when they go low, we go high. " Standing in the line of fire are U.S. crude supplies to
China, which have surged from virtually zero before 2017 to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in
July.
Representing a modest 5% of China's overall crude imports, these supplies are worth $1
billion a month at current prices - a figure that seems certain to fall should a duty be
implemented . While U.S. crude oil is not on the list of 545 products the Chinese government
has said it would immediately retaliate with in response to American duties, China has
threatened a 25% duty on imports of U.S. crude which is listed as a U.S. product that will
receive an import tariff at an unspecified later date.
And amid an escalating tit-for-tat war between Trump and Xi in which neither leader is even
remotely close to crying uncle, industry participants expect the tariff to be levied, a move
which would make future purchases of US oil uneconomical for Chinese importers.
"The Chinese have to do the tit-for-tat, they have to retaliate ," said John Driscoll,
director of consultancy JTD Energy, adding that cutting U.S. crude imports was a means "of
retaliating (against) the U.S. in a very substantial way".
In an alarming sign for Washington, and a welcome development for Iran, some locals have
decided not to see which way the dice may fall.
According to
Japan Times , in a harbinger of what's to come, an executive from China's Dongming
Petrochemical Group, an independent refiner from Shandong province, said his refinery had
already cancelled U.S. crude orders .
"We expect the Chinese government to impose tariffs on (U.S.) crude," the unnamed executive
said. " We will switch to either Middle East or West African supplies ," he said.
Driscoll said China may even replace American oil with crude from Iran. " They (Chinese
importers) are not going to be intimidated, or swayed by U.S. sanctions."
Oil consultancy FGE agrees, noting that China is unlikely to heed President Trump's warning
to stop buying oil from Iran. While as much as 2.3 million barrels a day of crude from the
Persian Gulf state at risk per Trump's sanctions, the White House has yet to get responses from
China, while
India or
Turkey have already hinted they would defy Trump and keep importing Iranian oil. Together
three three nations make up about 60 percent of the Persian Gulf state's exports.
Under pressure from Washington, Seoul has already halted all orders of Iranian oil,
according to sources, even as it braces from spillover effects from the U.S.-China
tit-for-tat on trade.
Expecting SA to help supply the World's needs is perhaps going off the deep end. It's their
bread and butter for years to come. As years pass, they become more aware that those years
are limited. This is not the 1970's, it's 2018. They will supply what is profitable for them,
and wasting it early, doesn't sound real smart, does it? If we offered them massive support
to develop their nuclear capabilities, it would probably entice them. Or, jump out of the
pot, and into the frying pan. Iran May have more capacity for new oil.
If I have understood this correctly. When most of their fields are mature, the option they
have is to invest (almost overbuild) in facilities foremost to treat and inject the steadily
higher volume of water to keep oil production steady and at the same time overinvest in
infill drilling to keep the volume rising. All this to sustain or even increase oil output
from mature fields, so that the oil price can stay low. And then there is the extra gain in
extra barrels to consider as a result of the investments that adds to ultimate recovery at
each field. The gain from extra barrels could make up for a mediocre return on investment in
some cases and a questionable one in other cases. Given a relatively low oil price
assumption.
Why would they do that? Keeping the facilities as they are for mature fields, accepting
only small investments where they are highly profitable, limiting infill drilling to the best
locations, let the oil production fall and hope for prices to rise would be a superior
solution for them, would it not? Why rush investments in mature oil fields?
When most of their fields are mature, the option they have is to invest (almost overbuild)
in facilities foremost to treat and inject the steadily higher volume of water to keep oil
production steady and at the same time overinvest in infill drilling to keep the volume
rising. All this to sustain or even increase oil output from mature fields,
Well no, it does not usually increase production, it just drastically reduces the decline
rate. For instance, a very mature field may have a natural decline rate of 6 to 8% per year.
With infill drilling of horizontal wells along the top of the reservoir, they may reduce that
decline rate to 2% per year.
so that the oil price can stay low.
No, that's not why they are doing it. They are doing it to maintain their annual
production. Some do increase production but with oil from new fields. These new fields,
however, will have a much lower URR and will start to decline after only a few years. All the
giant and supergiant field have already been discovered.
The "so that the oil price can stay low" was a well hidden irony from my part. But you
have a point, they want to keep their long term customers supplied, not losing face in OPEC
and their long term allies happy. They stretch to keep everyone happy.
Russia is certainly being creamed. The massive infill is visible from satellites and they
haven't found/opened anything new of size, yet have outlasted what everyone (including them)
calculated would be the start of their decline.
Russia needs the oil revenue badly. But is their ultimate decline going to look like
China? Very likely.
2018-07-05 (Platts) While Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told Platts recently that "maximum
sustainable production" was 12 million b/d, industry experts believe Saudi Arabia will
struggle to pump more than 1 million b/d of additional output.
Yeah, I think that is pretty much what Ron and George have been saying. It is why all these
drops in production, and projected production that will not get out of the ground has to
cause demand to exceed supply within the next year by a substantial amount. Throw in Iran's
sabre rattling over the Homez, and oil prices should be through the roof. That it is not, is
mainly complacency built up over the past four years from the inventory overage. As Scarlet
O'Hara said, "After all tomorrow is another day".
MSNBC announced that the Aramco IPO may never happen. MSNBC didn't say why, however I suppose
those reserves that the Saudis have touted for so long could be very difficult to have
verified based on SEC rules. I think that much of the last two years of prep for their IPO
has been shopping for a exchange that would allow them to get their stock issued without
drastically revising their prior reserve disclosures.
You can also look at this development as an indication that the above discussed "rock" may
have already dropped.
I think that the potential threat of what happens if there is a hot war are more extensive
than just having the Strait of Hormuz being closed. If you look at that map you can see that
Saudi Arabia is just across the Strait. And as luck would have it, Saudi Arabia's oil fields
are mostly in the east which means that they are within close missile range of Iran. Nice oil
fields you have there Saudi Arabia. Shame if something happened to it. The United Arab
Emirates are also within missile range as well. If both countries think that Patriot
batteries will protect them then they must have been disillusioned to find that those
Patriots couldn't even defend against wonky Houthi missiles.
Then there is the fact that Iran shares a border with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Remember how
the CIA shipped all those anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) and ManPads to the Syrian
Jihadists via countries like Saudi Arabia? Be a real shame if captured stock got passed on to
the Taliban via all those borders and started targeted US/Coalition forces in Afghanistan.
Just these two possibilities show how Iran has a whole range of options to use if it came to
a military confrontation. And it should be remembered. If a US/Coalition could not
successfully occupy Iraq with a population of 37 million, then how can Iran with a population
of 80 million be occupied?
Another factor is that even if a US/Coalition managed to somehow suppress all those missiles
the Iranians are using to guard those Straits, you would never be sure that you got them all.
Who really want to risk their oil tankers going down those Straits and wanting to risk that
bottleneck beig turned into a flaming sea? The trouble there is no way that there would be a
quick campaign possible with everybody home by Christmas. This has the potential of still
being fought during the 2020 US elections and I do not think that the US establishment wants
to risk that one. What they do want is to strangle Iran economically and turn the place into
one of grinding poverty but if pushed too far may go the Sampson option.
Local kids could also be trained to fire rockets across the water. The straits are not
straight and cut into Iran, so there's a good vantage point for Iran.
> probably already is.
>> China is still officially stating that it will not end its Iranian oil imports and
operations.
China's investment of billions into the deep port of Gwadar should not be discounted.
While China has ceded the ocean surface to the US navy, the wei qi way is to surround and not
engage directly. By now the Gulf of Oman should be a sensory organ for information critical
to Iran, and passive systems are much harder to detect & destroy.
We're now three years out from Qiao Liang saying China "thinks that Washington will not
fight Beijing for the next ten years". China doesn't want the fight (and I mean high
explosives, not 'fighting for') yet, but they've been preparing. And let us not forget the
rooster tails on the American fleet fleeing the Persian Gulf in October 2015 when Russia
launched cruise missiles at Syria. That was three months after the 'One Belt, One Road'
speech.
While the Saud's are working out their family disputes they cannot afford to have the
petrodollar disabled. But the US is materially capable of weathering energy disruptions
better than the EU, which would become even more dependent on Russia. Long term, the
petrodollar is gone and climate migrations are coming, so the when of Fortess America could
depend on relative and not absolute 'cui bono, ciu malo'.
tldr: the fight is inevitable, there's more than two in the ring, and there's no
referee.
I doubt if it is mined at this time, but mines would be a logical way to quickly shut the
Strait down. A couple of small fast ships dropping mines at night could shut it down very
quickly. They could drop mines along the far shore which would force ships towards the Iran
side where they would be vulnerable to shore-based anti-ship missiles.
BTW, the standing NATO minesweeping group is three ships (two Lithuanian and one British).
Historically minesweeping is one of the roles carried out by other countries that the US is
currently working hard to alienate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standing_NATO_Mine_Countermeasures_Group_1
Mine sweeping ships generally are not heavily armored to avoid magnetic and acoustic
signatures that can trigger mines. So they can struggle in contested waters and would be very
vulnerable to anti-ship missiles.
"Rouhani, considered by European politicians to be a reformist, appears to be showing a
hardline streak that is nearer the strategy of the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah
Khamenei. "
Everybody becomes a hardliner when faced with an existential threat, which Trump's threats
are now creating for Iran.
There's no need to sink any oil tankers to stop all oil shipping. Those tankers don't sail
without full insurance for the cargo, and no maritime insurer will back shipping through the
Strait of Hormuz while the Iranians are on the warpath. Hence, no oil tanker.
That is why a few mines would be very effective. All oil shipping would cease immediately.
Because mines can be redeployed very easily, including by air or fishing boats, insurers
would probably not be assuaged by naval assurances that mines have been swept.
In the 1980's when the Iranians mined the Straits the tankers still moved. What was the
insurance deal then? Did it the US pick it up for that part of the trip?
"If a US/Coalition could not successfully occupy Iraq with a population of 37 million,
then how can Iran with a population of 80 million be occupied?"
Iran is also mostly Persian. Yes, there are Arabs, Armenians, Baluchis, etc., but the vast
majority are Persian and are proud to be Persian. Unlike Iraq, where you have a country with
3 groups you can play off each other.
I visited Iran over 5 years ago and was able to speak to some regular Iranians (English is
not uncommon amongst men and women). They will fight to the last man, woman, and child if
anyone came into their country. And that's what the secular ones who hate their government
say.
Every town has lamppost flags showing the pictures of all the young men who died in the
Iran-Iraq War. It was humbling to see the generational devastation wrought on that country.
Even the youth view that war as a world war, since people from over 25 countries were found
to be fighting on the Iraq side ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War
– Remember the Soviet Union was ALSO on Iraq's side!). They faced destruction and
survived. They view themselves as an ancient, sophisticated people as well as the greatest
survivors in the world (all with good reason as they are an amazing people with a rubbish
government).
I do not see this ending well if the US thinks they can put the Iranians into a corner and
get compliance. It is an amazingly ahistorical understanding of the geopolitics of Iran.
These are the people we should be allying with not Saudi Arabia. But this is the same group
who think blundering into Iraq or Syria was a good idea, so I really can't be surprised.
Just to add that the people living above the main Saudi oil fields, Eastern Province, are
mainly Shiites. Shiites are also to be found in the south along the ill defined border with
Yemen. Both communities are disaffected and have been for decades, although the BBC, which
advertises its "unparalled global expertise" (sic) between news bulletins and other
programmes, reckons the Arab Spring caused the restiveness in Saudi Arabia.
This said, the Saudis and their Pakistani poodles can foment (Sunni) Arab and Baluch
disorder in Khuzestan and Sistan / Iranian Baluchistan.
I always wonder to myself when, on the BBC News Channel, they pan across the alleged
newsroom in New Broadcasting House and you see all those desks -- rows upon rows of them --
where people are sat, or, occasionally, get up and have a wander around, what the heck are
they doing there? It can't be producing news reports because you see the same half a dozen
so-called news "stories" stripped endlessly across the schedule throughout the day.
Every so often we get "business" news, which is someone from a spread betting company
piffling on about some rot or other then "a look at the markets", not, unfortunately, a view
of Covenant Garden or something, that would be more interesting, but rather some mysterious
figures from world indices and forex rates splayed across the screen like some inscrutable
hieroglyphs.
Then a bit of sport, with a dash of added jingoism.
Finally, some rally round the flag update on "the forces" with some top brass on the poop
deck of an aircraft carrier looking for an F35 ("F35 coming real soon"). Maybe Sophie
Rayworth in a tank.
Or alternatively it's Jenny Hill from Berlin with something about sausages and Merkel with
stock footage of people drinking beer from unfeasibly large glasses wraps it all up apart
from a sky diving granny then the weather.
It could be worse. We all could work in one of these places. It would not matter how great
a story you found, it would all have to get through the editors who report directly to their
owners like with the Murdoch press. The stuff you talk about is just the stuff that gets the
editorial nod i.e. pure pap.
Some of the stuff that I have seen on Australian TV, however, is nothing less than out and
out propaganda. I watch some of this stuff and I compare it with what I read on this site or
what a commentator chips in with and I wonder what these newsreaders actually are thinking as
they read some of these stories. Probably their steady pay packets.
I wish to god I knew. I have seen this creeping in the past decade or more. I suspect that
a lot of bad practices are imported from overseas. There are international conferences for
conservative political parties so you would have American Republicans, British Conservatives,
Australian Coalition, etc. all mixing together and swapping idea and techniques. They even
work together when there is an election in their country.
Just the other day I heard one Coalition member describe another as a "patriot" which you
NEVER hear in Oz. Kinda like a Republican describing another Republican as a good Communist.
You just never hear it. We even have an ex-Prime Minister that sounds like he could be a good
buddy to Mark Rubio running around trying to blow up his own party (currently in power)
saying that we should build as many coal power stations as possible because climate change is
not real.
Historically our governments have been ruled by pragmatism and past US governments have
labelled us as "socialist" due to adopting such things as single-payer health. The past few
years I am noting more and more ideologues going into politics who want to drag the country
into their way of thinking whether it is to pick fights with China (our major trade partner)
or send the Australian military to the ends of the earth as if they were Mercenaries-r-us.
The times they are a changing.
It all reminds me of C S Lewis' description of H -- as a giant bureaucracy. "The Screwtape
Letters" were written at the end of WW-2 and still come across as 'fresh.'
Supposedly the KSA funded development of the Pakistani bomb. There probably is some
agreement to hand some over (if it hasn't already been done) for "existential threats" This
could turn very bad very fast.
Iran has lots of options. Their Navy wouldn't last very long in a hot war but they have
lots of asymetric options. They have reverse engineered Russian torpedoes and these could be
launched from land or from mini-subs in shallow waters (where they are far harder to detect),
making life very difficult for opponents, let alone tankers. They can strike the UAE and much
of Saudi Arabia using a wide variety of ballistic missiles. To prevent this, the US would
have to strike Iranian territory, and this would cause a massive escalation. In almost any
scenario, the Straits would be shut down for many months, and this would be catastrophic for
the world economy. Asia would come off worse as they are most dependent on LNG and oil from
that region.
As you say, the great 'unsaid' is the Taliban. If Iran decided it was in their interest to
supply them with a few dozen trained operators with a few thousand anti-tank missiles and
manpads, then its goodbye Kabul.
The Iranians hate the Taliban and Al Quaeda and ISIS a lot more than we do since we are on
Saudi Arabia's side. They also seem to follow their principles. Don't forget our allies and
proxies in Syria are the headcutters and madmen ..all Sunnis ..although our government does
not want to admit it. They would be a lot smarter to trigger a Shiite uprising in Saudi
Arabia and shut the country down. The Shiites in Saudi are downtrodden and abused.
To escalate a carrier sinking to nuclear war is, I believe a lose/lose proposition. Let
say the Iranians sunk a carrier and the US Nuked Tehran.
The Iranians would not be in a forgiving mood at that point, and it would do little to
remove the somewhat irritated Iranians along the northern side of the Persian Gulf. The
irritated Iranians would initiate incidents over the impact of irradiated Iranians.
The US could nuke the Iranian Coast along the Persian Gulf, but, the gulf is not wide, and
the result would be poor prospects for the US allies on the South side of the Gulf. In
addition one does not know if nuking Shea would provoke a Sunni backlash against "the
infidels, the Christian US."
One could argue that Christians and Nukes cannot be mentioned in the same sentence.
The Prologue of Robert Baer's "Sleeping With the Devil" outlines a potential scenario of a
Shiite attack on the eastern Saudi oil fields. The sub-title is The Doomsday Scenario.
The book is about the US-Saudi relationship by a retired CIA officer. A very good read and
part of trying to understand this entire mess.
Exactly right. Logic dictates that if Iran is attacked, Iranian missiles will soon
thereafter attempt to destroy all of the oil producing capacity selling to Europe, Japan and
the US within range of its missiles. This means ships, oil fields, pipeline, ect. Oil prices
would skyrocket, plunging the US, Japan and Europe into a deep economic downturn.
Why people ignore the outcome you provided is beyond me. If I were Iran, I'd do the same
if Israel attacked too.
Your guess is that nobody will attack the Iranians after they attack the shipping to close
the straits?
In the 1987 Iran attacked about 91 ships in the Gulf. The oil still flowed. On April 18,
1988 the US attacked and severely damaged a number of Iranian ships and bases. After that
things started winding down. Then on July 3, 1988 the US shot down that Iranian airliner.
Then things really quieted down.
What are the differences now? Iran: ballistic missiles and subs?
There's Lt. General Riper, who played the Iranian side in the 2002 Millennium Challenge war
games, "killing" 20,000 Navy personnel and "sinking" 16 American warships
on the first day, so he knows better than to even start such a bottlenecked battle.
There's always General Farnsworth, the great grandson of Colonel Armstrong Custer.
Farnsworth has worked for two decades in the Purchasing & Planning wing of the Pentagon
-- three levels below daylight -- but his confidence in an immediate American victory Over
There is indubitable.
In similar vein, MI5's Eliza Manningham Buller is a descendant of Redvers Buller, British
commander in the second Boer War, but much more of a realist and moderate.
Redvers Buller? Seriously? I have read a lot about his role in the Zulu War of 1879.
Intriguing character being hard-fighting and hard-drinking and yet refused to wear his 1860
China medal on the grounds that it was an unnecessary war. And a descendant of his is head of
MI5?
Here's a little character sketch of Redvers Buller, from " On the Psychology of
Military Incompetence ", by Norman Dixon:
The leading character was the commander-in-chief, General Sir Redvers Buller. According
to a contemporary description there could be no finer choice for our South African
adventure: 'There is no stronger commander in the British Army than this remote, almost
grimly resolute, completely independent, utterly fearless, steadfast and vigorous man.
Big-boned, square-jawed, strong-minded, strong-headed Smartness sagacity administrative
capacity He was born to be a soldier of the very best English type, needless to say the
best type of all.
Unfortunately this assessment was at variance with the facts in all but two particulars.
Firstly, he was indeed big. Secondly, though sadly lacking in moral courage, he was
undoubtedly brave when it came to physical danger. In this respect, as in many others, he
was not unlike Raglan of the Crimean War, and indeed some other commanders of subsequent
years.
Of Sir 'Reverse' Buller, as he came to be known by his troops, Rayne Kruger writes: 'At the
risk of marring [the] contemporary description it should be mentioned that his big bones
were particularly well covered, especially in the region of the stomach, and that his
square jaw was not especially apparent above a double chin. He had entered the army with no
disadvantage, his mother being a Howard and niece of the Duke of Norfolk, and he was very
wealthy, which was fortunate in view of his preference for a diet of ample good food and
champagne.
Such examples of the Peter Principle, wherein people are raised to their own level of
inefficiency, was never better illustrated than in the case of Sir Redvers Buller, who has
been described as 'a superb major, a mediocre colonel and an abysmal general'. In this
case, high-level military incompetence must be laid at the door of heroic leadership, for
this was the quality which eventually put him where he could do the most damage to his own
side.
The US response will be that this unprovoked aggression is an act of war, etc. This
ignores our own unprovoked act of aggression, the embargo.
In case any has forgotten, those dastardly Imperialist Japanese launched an "unprovoked"
attack on Pearl Harbor because the US put Japan under an embargo.
Embargoes themselves are not acts of war, but blockades are. But this is all technical
blather. The US is attempting to strangle Iran. Iran will attempt to strangle the Gulf Arabs
and the US. If Iran starts firing missiles or blockading the straits, the US will attack
Iran. Iran will in turn launch attacks on the Gulf states. This could drive oil over $200,
perhaps higher.
If Iran were clever, they would institute some sort of quarantine or inspection in their
territorial waters. Indeed, they should claim jurisdiction over the entire strait in the
interest of international security (they could certainly find some US document somewhere and
just change the names). Then they could stop every ship going in and out and spend a week or
so inspecting each one for contraband, disease, etc. This would not be an act of war but
would certainly provoke the US into striking first anyway.
Iran has already extended its territorial waters to 12 miles, as did Oman. Given that the
strait is 29 miles at the narrowest, and that to deal with the amount of shipping, pretty
much all of it passes through either Omani or Iranian territorial waters. Technically,
Iran/Oman has right to stop any non "innocent" (read unarmed) shipping trough it territorial
waters. Not sure what is Omani relationship with the US/Saudis at the moment, wasn't paying
much attention to the Gulf.
Once the US decides to strike first, we're going to be on our own. The Saudis will be
completely useless as they always were, understandably not wanting to be cannon fodder for US
interests. And with most of Europe and Asia relying on gulf oil, our 'coalition of the
willing' is going to be a bit shy of members.
But $200 a barrel and the US a solid producer? Seems to be some win-win money to be made for
both Raytheon and Exxon-Mobil.
No Saudi just like no rich American will give his life for his country .in the military.
Life is just too good for them .why fight in the desert when you can cool it at a cafe in
Munich ..why are all the Syrian men of fighting age in Munich and Hamburg? They don't want to
fight for their country.
Considering the restraint Iran has shown regarding Israeli attacks in Syria, it's safe to
assume they want to avoid war at all cost. Don't expect any acts of aggression from them.
Talk of closing the strait is trying to see if there is any spark of independence left in
Europe's political elite. Unfortunately the Europeans only care about money – what they
get personally from the US to run their countries and what their corporations get from doing
business with America. There just isn't enough business between Iran and Europe to offset
that. Now the more unreasonable Washington becomes the more uncomfortable its allies become,
however they will still hold their noses and answer the call to duty. I'm afraid Iran's
courting Europe will produce little to help them. Luckily China and Russia, even Turkey and
India, are far more important.
The nice thing for Iran's hardliners – assuming the MSM narrative that they are
nasty terrorists always looking to cause trouble – is that they don't need to take
aggressive action to start a war. They've got America/Israel and that's the cause of every
war in the 21st century. That pairing will decide if and when there is to be a war. Russia
and China might have the ability to provoke caution but Iran doesn't.
Do not expect any actions from the Iranians to provoke a war. It's a war they cannot win
and they know it. it's also a war they can't lose but the price they could pay by surviving
might be really horrific. I'm not sure they'd close the strait even in a shooting war because
that would risk further escalation. The moment America starts bombing Iran the law of
diminishing return kicks in. The US will be looking for any excuse to go nuclear. Therefore I
doubt Iranian resistance will be more than defensive. Hopefully Russia is providing them with
air defences to be able to shoot down some US planes. Just lay low and ride out the storm.
That's been the philosophy of US/Israeli opponents in the Middle East this decade. It's why
the Russians take so much crap and keep turning the other cheek. They understand that either
they lose such a war or, if they are winning they risk the US going nuclear. Iran can't win a
war with America. Iran, however, can inflict unacceptable casualties but then they run the
same risk of Washington going nuclear in retaliation. In Asian capitals you have rational
players who understand that a nuclear war must be avoided if possible. Thus they avoid any
aggressive actions which they fear could lead to such a war. The problem humanity has is that
we're not sure if there are any rational players in Washington or Tel Aviv.
"The problem humanity has is that we're not sure if there are any rational players in
Washington or Tel Aviv."
+1
Given our belief in being an "exceptional nation" hasn't this been humanity's problem since
the end of WW2?
Will the sanctions pull Iran enough to such an escalation? Would other countries (apart
from Turkey) thing that this is troubling enough to risk US sanctions and disobey? There has
been an escalation in language between the UE and US regarding Iran sanctions but it is still
too soon to know what will be the EU position. We migth know after tomorrow's meeting in
Vienna. I don't know what could happen but be sure the US is running out of "natural allies"
by stepping up too much it's support for Saudi Arab. Trump is inaugurating a new era and it
doesn't look pretty.
The Army might be in trouble but the Marine Corps WILL BE IN A HURT LOCKER FROM HELL if
its ever called on to face Russian forces if they follow thru with published planning.
It is as clear as day that President Trump is obsessed with regime change in Iran. What is
not made clear is how much his gambit is damaging to Americans and American interests.
Without cause or justification, Mr. Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of
Action (JCPOA), striking a hard blow to America's European allies – and its own
credibility. Moreover, he threatened European countries with secondary sanctions should they
continue to trade with Iran.
To top it all, in his latest move, he has called for all Iranian oil exports to be cut off
by November. Or in practical terms, he is imposing an economic blockade on Iran. This is a
similar scenario that was played out by the British in 1951 against Iran and Dr. Mossadegh
– who was later overthrown in the 1953 British-US coup. But today, the IR of Iran is not
the Iran of 1953, and the brunt of American demands and actions will not be borne by Iran
alone.
Demanding that no country purchase oil from Iran is in fact an economic blockade. It is an
illegitimate use of power to force a sovereign nation to surrender. It must be made clear
however, that it is not just Iran that is the target here. The Trump administration's demands
arean offensiveexercise of extraterritorial authority with no regard for sovereign equality
between states. All states involved in trade with Iran will either have to cower to his demands
or be punished.
But there is more than state sovereignty and indignation that is involved. These actions
will have a dire effect on the economy of allies, and they will hit Americans in the wallet
– hard. If Mr. Trump is giving a November deadline, he hopes to postpone the impact this
will have on the November elections. He wants total rule over America before totally
bankrupting it.
To fully appreciate how Mr. Trump intends to make 'America great again' where his policy
regarding Iranian oil is concerned, one must take a look at some numbers and empirical
evidence.
The oil strikes leading up to the toppling of Iran's Shah were felt around the world. During
the 1978-79 revolution, Iranian oil production dropped 3.8 million barrels per day for 3
months. Although outside production increased by 1.8 million barrels to make up for the loss,
the net loss to the world was 150 million barrels of oil. However, the compounding results of
the production loss were significant around the globe.
Many Americans may recall the lines at the fuel pumps, but that was just what met the eyes.
The increase in oil prices impacted farming, production, transportation of goods and services,
and so on. At that time, China, currently the second biggest oil consumer behind America, was a
net exporter of oil. The loss to U.S. economy was estimated at many billions of dollars in 1979
and 1980 (Deese and Nye 308-309) [i]
.
More recent studies show that Iranian oil has a major impact on the U.S. economy even though
America does not import a single barrel of oil from Iran. In 2008, economists Dean DeRosa and
Gary Hufbauer presented a paper in which they claimed that if the United States lifted
sanctions on Iran, the world price of oil could fall by 10 percent which would translate into
an annual savings of $38-76 billion for the United States [ii] .
But sanctions alone were not responsible for oil price hikes in 2008 and beyond. In July
2008, oil had reached a peak of $142.05/bbl (see chart HERE ). This price hike
came on the heels of some important events. In May, President Bush sent a ' warning message' to Iran on
the same day that additional aircraft carriers with guided-missile destroyers were sent to the
Persian Gulf.
In June of the same year, the New York
Times reported that: "Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that
American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's
nuclear facilities."
In July, then presidential candidate Barak Obama asked for
tougher sanctions to be imposed on Iran.
It was not until September 2008 when President
Bush declined to help Israel attack Iran that oil prices started to relax. They hit a low
of just over $53 /bbl in December 2008.
Oil prices continued to rise again under Obama's sanctions and reached well past the $100
mark. The prices climbed down once again during the JCPOA negotiations reaching an all time low
of $30.24/bbl in January 2016 – after the signing of the JCPOA.
Today, oil prices stands at $74.30/bbl. A fact not lost on any American who has filled up
his/her gas tank lately– and paid for groceries. The deadline for Iran oil cut off is yet
months away, but the impact has started.
Given that other countries may step in to compensate for some of the Iranian oil
loss, other factors which effect prices must be considered – the most important of which
is the security of the Strait of Hormuz. As mentioned previously, the British oil blockade
scenario of 1951 will have far different consequences in 2018 should America impose an economic
blockade or oil embargo.
In the 1950's, Iran did not have the military might to retaliate to the oil embargo and the
naval blockade was aimed at crushing the economy in order to bring about regime change. This
economic blockade, should it be allowed to happen, would crush the economy of much of the
world.
As it stands, 35% of seaborne oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz 85% of which goes to
Asian markets. As the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has stated: "The blockage of
the Strait of Hormuz, even temporarily, could lead to substantial increases in total energy
costs."Today, Iran not only has the military might to block the Strait of Hormuz in
retaliation, but it also has the legal right.
The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) stipulates that vessels
can exercise the right of innocent passage, and coastal states should not impede their passage.
Under UNCLOS framework of international law, a coastal state can block ships from entering its
territorial waters if the passage of the ships harms "peace, good order or security" of said
state, as the passage of such ships would no longer be deemed "innocent" [iii] .
Saudi Arabia and the UAE export oil through Iran's territorial waters. Should they help America
choke Iran's economy, their passage is not deemed 'innocent'.
Even if Iran simply chooses to merely delay the passage of tankers by exercising its right
to inspect every hostile oil tanker that passes through the Strait of Hormuz, such inspections
and subsequent delays would contribute to higher oil prices.
No doubt, the Iranian navy is no match for the formidable US navy. However, the shallow,
narrow waters of Hormuz do not allow for the maneuvering of US battleships. The very presence
of warships can lead to incidents. At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles
wide – hardly wide enough for a naval battle to take place and allow the passage of oil
tankers at the same time. In recent years (2012), the USS Porter, a US navy destroyer,
collided with an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The collision left a big whole in the
navy destroyer.
American officials and oil companies have attempted to assuage the concern of over oil
shortages by stating that America is one of the top oil producers. Some fact checking is in
order.
According to EIA's latest available data, America's total exports in 2018
(thousands of barrels/month) was 7,730 bblin April. The same governmental body stated that
total imports for the same month was 310,295. According to the EIA: "In 2017, the United States
producedabout 15.4 million barrels of petroleum per day (MMb/d), and it consumed about 19.9
MMb/d. Imports from other countries help to supply demand for petroleum." (Click HERE for
explanation of imports and exports).
These facts do not stop the spread of such news. As recently as June 4, 2018, Offshore Technology announced America is marching toward being the biggest oil
producer. Important factors to bear in mind are that 1. America is the largest oil consumer and
continues to have a deficit, and 2. Shale oil production is up thanks to higher oil prices.
While environmentalists objected to shale oil production, oil companies halted the
extraction of oil when prices dropped. Anything above $50/bbl makes shale oil production
feasible – which also makes it more expensive of the consumer. Although Mr. Trump and his
administration have no regard for the environment, many states and countries have banned shale
oil production (see LINK for list as of December
2017).
So the American people (and much of the rest of the world) is left with a stark choice.
Either cave in to Mr. Trump's demands, accept loss of business, pay much higher oil prices at
the pump and for consumer goods, prepare for a potential war, and sacrifice the environment
– especially water, and mortgage the future of the earth more than we already have, or,
don't heed Trump's demands – even if means a short term loss.
Either way, messing with Iran's oil exports is not an alternative that the world can afford.
It may well be that Mr. Trumpis beholden to Mr. Netanyahu. He may well feel comfortable enough
to subject the American people – and their allies to financial hardship; but the question
is will Americans and the rest of the world sacrifice themselves at the Trump-Netanyahu
altar?
* Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich is an independent researcher and writer with a focus on
U.S. foreign policy and the role of lobby groups in influencing US foreign policy.
The USA elite might now want abandoning of GATT and even WTO as it does not like the results. That single fraud on the west has
had catastrophically perverse consequences for the coterie of killer's future and all because the designers of GATT had never thought
outside the square of economics and failed utterly to grasp the gift of scientific and manufacturing politics.
Notable quotes:
"... The US still depends heavily on oil importation -- it is not "independent" in any manner whatsoever. Here's the most current data while this chart shows importation history since 1980. ..."
"... the only time a biological or economic entity can become energy independent is upon its death when it no longer requires energy for its existence. ..."
"... A big part of the US move into the middle east post WWII was that they needed a strategic reserve for time of war and also they could see US consumption growing far larger than US production. ..."
"... The USA of WAR may have oil independence, but it is temporary. The race is on for release from oil dependency and China intends to win in my view. It is setting ambitious targets to move to electric vehicles and mass transit. That will give it a technology dominance, and perhaps a resource dominance in the EV sphere. We are in the decade of major corporate struggles and defensive maneuverings around China investments in key EV sectors. ..."
"... In ten to twenty years' time the energy story could well be significantly different. The USA and its coterie of killers are still fighting yesterday's war, yesterday's hatred of all things Russian, yesterday's energy monopoly. ..."
"... I don't believe that the USA of WAR has changed or even intends to change the way they play their 'game'. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade set the trajectory for technology transfer, fabrication skills transfer, growth of academic and scientific achievement in 'other' countries (China, Russia etc). Their thoughts in the GATT deal were trade = economics = oligarchy = good. ..."
"... That single fraud on the west has had catastrophically perverse consequences for the coterie of killer's future and all because the designers of GATT had never thought outside the square of economics and failed utterly to grasp the gift of scientific and manufacturing politics. ..."
"... Canada and the gulf monarchies are the only countries with large reserves that are not hostile as yet to the US. As the US no longer is totally reliant on imports to meet its consumption, Saudi's, Bahrain and co are now expendable assets. ..."
The US still depends heavily on oil importation -- it is not "independent" in any manner whatsoever.
Here's the most current data
while this chart shows importation
history since 1980.
As I've said before, the only time a biological or economic entity can become energy independent is upon its death when
it no longer requires energy for its existence.
What I am looking at are strategic reserves, not how much oil is currently produced. With shale it now has those reserves and
shale oil I think is now at the point where production could quickly ramp up to full self sufficiency if required. Even if the
US were producing as much oil as they consumed, they would still be importing crude and exporting refined products.
A big part of the US move into the middle east post WWII was that they needed a strategic reserve for time of war and also
they could see US consumption growing far larger than US production.
@Peter AU 1 #28 Thank you for that stimulating post. I just have to respond. And thanks to b and all the commenters here, it is
my daily goto post.
The USA of WAR may have oil independence, but it is temporary. The race is on for release from oil dependency and China intends
to win in my view. It is setting ambitious targets to move to electric vehicles and mass transit. That will give it a technology
dominance, and perhaps a resource dominance in the EV sphere. We are in the decade of major corporate struggles and defensive
maneuverings around China investments in key EV sectors.
In ten to twenty years' time the energy story could well be significantly different. The USA and its coterie of killers
are still fighting yesterday's war, yesterday's hatred of all things Russian, yesterday's energy monopoly.
I don't believe that the USA of WAR has changed or even intends to change the way they play their 'game'. The General Agreement
on Tariffs and Trade set the trajectory for technology transfer, fabrication skills transfer, growth of academic and scientific
achievement in 'other' countries (China, Russia etc). Their thoughts in the GATT deal were trade = economics = oligarchy = good.
That single fraud on the west has had catastrophically perverse consequences for the coterie of killer's future and all
because the designers of GATT had never thought outside the square of economics and failed utterly to grasp the gift of scientific
and manufacturing politics.
By gross ignorance and foolish under-investment, the USA of WAR and its coterie of killers have eaten their future at their
people's expense.
Light sweet vs heavy sour. Light means it contains a lot of diesel/petrol. Sweet means low sulphur. Many oils are heavy sour.
Canada sand. the stuff they get from that is thick bitumen with high sulpher. The sulpher needs to be removed and the bitumen
broken down into light fuels like diesel and petrol.
Canada and the gulf monarchies are the only countries with large reserves that are not hostile as yet to the US. As the
US no longer is totally reliant on imports to meet its consumption, Saudi's, Bahrain and co are now expendable assets.
The great game for the US now is control or denial. Access to oil as a strategically critical resource is no longer a factor
for the US.
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality – judiciously, as
you will – we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're
history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." Karl Rove.
The squealing and consternation coming from the UK indicates that the empire has changed course and the UK is left sitting
on its own shit pile.
I encourage you to give the Escobar article a second reading. I just did to make sure I knew what it was saying. I think karlof1
is making the right points from it.
The collaboration between Saudia Arabia and Russia is a very small part of the article, and no one disputes that this collaboration
is occurring. Russia may even be part of OPEC soon, if it chooses. The relationship works against the US but it's not specifically
made for this reason. Read Adam Garrie's take on this to see that the moves into OPEC by Russia in recent years are clearly from
its own interest as a hugely major supplier, and that Saudi Arabia needs Russia:
The New Russia-Saudi Partnership Has Riyadh's US Ally Over a Barrel
I just skimmed it a third time and I don't see Escobar saying anywhere that the Saudi-Russia relationship is to kill US shale.
He does say that both Russia and Iran are interested in countering it. I think the point here is that all serious oil producers
with profitable reserves take alarm at the US shale oil because it's hard to say that it's a real commodity with an inbuilt profitability.
It's a short-term entry into the market that can serve to disrupt the market temporarily, but it has no staying power. I suspect
most nations would prefer it simply not intrude.
No one actually has to act against US shale - it's something of a pretender in the real oil world anyway, and this has long
been commented upon. Escobar's point that the US shale is largely a myth is not a new concept. At best the reserve will deplete
within 15 years, and that's at best - along the way it will destroy the US potable water table. And its intrinsic value is far
from clear, since the entire industry is dubiously financed using relatively free Federal Reserve money. As Escobar points out,
many call $100 per barrel the profit threshold for shale - that's a ludicrously high bar for profitability in the oil world.
Much of Escobar's article was about the relationship between Russia and Iran, and it served also as a very good primer in world
oil and petro-currency numbers. I found it pretty sound.
"... You don't need to give use Northstream 2. We will build it ourselves. ..."
"... Nordstream II only blocking party is Denmark, and they can and will bypass it at some price, if need be. ..."
"... Almost all of the countries that Nord Stream 2 passes through have signed on to its construction. The only holdout is Denmark. In response Gazprom has said it will reroute the pipeline through international waters. There is nothing the US can do about that and Denmark can say goodbye to its share of transit fees. ..."
"... A lot of that sort of crap was being pumped out by trolls and regulars alike a few weeks back on Putin, Nutty and SW Syria. Putin had done a deal and was giving SW Syria to nutty cetra cetra. Like Putin and Xi, Iran and others are too stupid to realize they have to work together against US attacks. ..."
"... Russia has to defend Iran. There is no chance that Putin will sell it to Trump. Once again we see the dreaded "US can do anything" disease arising. In fact US options are limited and evaporating. ..."
"... The most likely outcome of the 'summit'is a renewal or strengthening of old agreements on arms control and much high sounding chatter: in geopolitics the die is cast. ..."
Almost all of the countries that Nord Stream 2 passes through have signed on to its
construction. The only holdout is Denmark. In response Gazprom has said it will reroute the
pipeline through international waters. There is nothing the US can do about that and Denmark
can say goodbye to its share of transit fees.
Also Crimea is non-negotiable for Russia. It is Russian territory irrespective of what
happens.
A lot of that sort of crap was being pumped out by trolls and regulars alike a few weeks back
on Putin, Nutty and SW Syria. Putin had done a deal and was giving SW Syria to nutty cetra
cetra. Like Putin and Xi, Iran and others are too stupid to realize they have to work
together against US attacks.
Russia has to defend Iran. There is no chance that Putin will sell it to Trump.
Once again we see the dreaded "US can do anything" disease arising. In fact US options are
limited and evaporating.
Incidentally it is very easy and probably wise to promise the US, in June, not to buy oil in
November. It costs nothing and fits into bazaar bargaining strategies.
The most likely outcome of the 'summit'is a renewal or strengthening of old agreements on
arms control and much high sounding chatter: in geopolitics the die is cast.
"... The Iranians will lose marketspace, sure, but the inevitable increase of the price of oil will somewhat soften the blow. And anything over $100 per barrel, along with a stronger dollar, is proven to be detrimental to energy importing countries. It will be painful to keep the economy rolling. ..."
Oil will continue to flow from Iran, there simply isn't a significant supply stemming from
the Saudi-Russia alliance or US shale to fill the gap.
The Iranians will lose marketspace,
sure, but the inevitable increase of the price of oil will somewhat soften the blow. And
anything over $100 per barrel, along with a stronger dollar, is proven to be detrimental to
energy importing countries. It will be painful to keep the economy rolling.
And when there's less appetite for oil; the price of oil crashes resulting in another big
financial crash (due to bad dept) followed by another round of austerity measures which
spells political turmoil in a number of countries. And the landscape gradually changes.
So Trump asked the Saudis to pump 2 million more barrels per day to offset Iranian exports?
Daffy!. Saudis do not have a spare barrel, let alone 2 million. Ask Simmons. Oh wait, he
has been offed:
LONDON(Reuters) - The leader of Saudi Arabia has assured U.S. President Donald Trump that
the Kingdom can raise oil production if needed and the country has 2 million barrels per
day of spare capacity that could be deployed to help cool down oil prices to compensate for
falling output in Venezuela and Iran.
In a tweet on Saturday, Trump said Saudi Arabia had agreed to increase output by up to
this amount, although a subsequent statement from the White House rowed back on this
assertion.
Either way, the kingdom, OPEC's biggest member, can barely raise output by 1 million bpd
to 11 million bpd and even that would be difficult, according to industry analysts who
forecast a further oil price rally due to a lack of new supply.
Below are comments from some leading OPEC analysts:
[ED: one of several cited below]
"The Saudis do not have 2 million bpd of spare capacity as it would imply production of 12
million bpd. They can likely produce a maximum of 11 million and even that will be running
their system at stress levels," said Ross.
He added that with a potential output fall of up to 1.5 million bpd in Iran and
further outages in Venezuela and Libya, the world could be short of 2 million bpd of oil
output without an increase in Saudi output by the end of the year."
Pepe declares US shale to be a myth, but then says KSA and Russia have teamed up to fight. Us
production figures also left out. Disappointing piece from Pepe, especially this glaring
contradiction where KSA and Russia has to team up to fight what he calls a myth.
Pepe's referring to the assumed longevity of shale which is proven to be a gross lie. I can
provide documentation about that but it will have to wait until I have more time to work.
karlof1
Ok so according to Pepe Russia and KSA are joining forces to fight this gross lie.
either shale is a real and major threat, or Russia and KSA are not joining forces. That is
the glaring contradiction in Pepes piece. the other option is that both Russia and KSA both
of which have some knowledge of oil are mistaken about US shale.
Already have Syria? Not really. Heard of the SDF occupying the North-Eastern third of
Syria. If Trump & Putin can't come to an agreement on Iran what's the bet Trump decides
to pump money, weapons and US troops into North-Eastern Syria to fully support the Kurds?
NordStream II? Sure, it will be built, but Trump can sanction Germany and German industry
- ie automakers - heavily if he so wishes. He might do. He can blame NordStream II. He's
certainly been talking about it.
There are certainly ways and means Trump can create huge trouble for Germany/Russia in
regards to NordStream II even if it is built.
Crimea? Yeah, Russia has it but it is also used as the bludgeon to impose sanctions on
Russia. Perhaps recognising Crimea as part of Russia and dropping all sanctions on Russia
will be offered to Putin in return for Russia staying out of any conflict regarding Iran in
2019.
I'd hardly say Trump has nothing to bargain.
Besides, why would Putin select Medvedev as Prime Minister again despite Medvedev being
obviously a Euro-Atlanticist?
I'd also add - who do you think Russia fears in the future decades.
Is it a decaying Europe/EU who nevertheless can buy lots of Russian goods including oil
& gas obviously?
Or do Russia fear a rising China that always has one eye on the Russian Far East as a
possible place for expansion to take care of their oil & gas & mineral needs?
I suspect - and you can look to the history of Russia/China relations for this - that
Russia retains a more existential fear of China than anyone else.
Russia always clearly seeks to balance Europe/EU/US/Atlantic against China and others.
Where does Iran fit in all this? If Iran is taken out who benefits? Doesn't Iran being
taken out strengthen Russia's hand vis-a-vis China in terms of oil & gas? I'd say it
does. Certainly. Without Iranian oil & gas China becomes more dependent on who?
RUSSIA!
So I bet Russian thought would tend to say to China. Look, we are not going to put
ourselves on the line to defend Iran. But hey, if you want to do that we'll support you doing
so, afterall, Iran is of a more of a vital strategic interest to you than us.
We defended Syria, we can't defend anyone and you can't expect us to defend everyone. If
you want a country to retain its independence you have to step up to the plate every now and
then rather than just relying on the Russian military.
And look - we defended Syria - what did you do in Syria's defence?
Just to finish this comment.
In case you haven't noticed the US has put a date of November 4 on stopping the
export/import of Iranian oil. Which is? It is 2 days before the November 6 Mid-Terms...
It's a clear set-up for 2019.
My prediction.
There will be military action against Iran in the first half of 2019.
I suspect March-April-May being the most likely.
At that time you also have Brexit, European Elections (dominated by populists), Ukrainian
Presidential Elections, South African Elections, Indian Elections... It's a big few
months.
My advice? Buy oil & gas in the second half of this year - it's value is likely to
skyrocket in 2019.
What will Iran's response be? I'd say if you are in any of Saudi Gulf Coast, UAE (Dubai
& Abu Dhabi), Kuwait or Bahrain - get out before New Year's!!!
Re: Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Jul 1, 2018 11:14:41 PM | 27
I'm not judging one way or another on what Putin will necessarily do, but clearly Trump's
gambit is to wean Iran off Russian support.
Will it work? Who knows. But Iran clearly has less strategic importance to Russia than
Syria.
Let me ask you a question. Do you think Russia prefers Iranian-Qatari oil & gas
pipelines through Iraq-Syria-Turkey to Europe or would Russia prefer Saudi-UAE-Qatari oil
& gas pipelines to Europe??
Any effort to understand US foreign policy from actual US interests is a futile exercise in
frustration. US foreign policy is driven by two things:
1. The interests of international financiers (heavily Jewish)
2. The Israeli government.
At consideration for actual US interests is secondary if such things considered at all.
That should be obvious enough to everyone by now.
The one thing that Russia and/or China could do that would do more to avoid another major
power war, is to loudly, clearly and publicly inform the Israelis (the people as well as the
government) that any attack upon Russia, China, or their forces by the US or NATO will be
treated as a direct attack upon Russia/China by the state of Israel and the Jewish people and
these will be utterly destroyed in the first salvo of the Russian/Chinese response.
The second thing that could/should be done, is for Russia to implement a covert campaign
of targeted assassinations of Jewish figures who are actively engaged in efforts to undermine
Russian interests. This would include people like Sheldon Adelson, Haim Saban, key players in
international finance, etc. No Jew anywhere in the world should feel that they are beyond the
reach of Russian retaliation. This is precisely how the Israelis conduct their foreign policy
and Russians should not shirk from engaging fire with fire.
@Julian
I think you underestimate the long term benefit of a stable and prosperous Iran in the
greater Eurasian gambit (Infrastructure Node, stability for the region) vs the short term
gains Russia may achieve from a destroyed and fractured Iran that is in disarray. Russia
doesn't just export energy after all. Exploding oil prices will end up hurting consumer
nations, which in turn affects the global economy and by extension oil producers, there is
always a delayed feedback loop.
Just because someone competes with you in the energy realm doesn't automatically mean you
want that actor weak or destroyed. If that was the case, then why does Russia maintain good
relationships with Azerbaijan, a direct competitor to Russian Gas? Similarly Central Asian
countries are competitors in the gas market for China, yet Russia would never allow these to
be subverted by radical Islamists without acting.
"... The great power game is why there is continuity of government policy in the 'US west' no matter who is elected. Within the great power game democracy in the west is meaningless. ..."
"... If the US is changing how it plays the game, then the Brit players may be getting desperate. They are now small players but unlike the US do not have an oil reserve. ..."
"... This may be the reason the Brits have ramped up the propaganda to the ridiculous and also why they have attempted to take down Trump. ..."
Loot is only a side benefit for post WWII wars and no doubt before. Oil is energy and energy
means power to those that control it. UK, French, US have fucked the MENA region over simple
for control of the oil.
Working to prevent communism, socialism, democracy and pan Arab
movements which are all a threat to FUKUS control of MENA, and then pulling the same dirty
tricks on each other. Russia has its own all and through the Soviet era seems to have only
dabbled in the region.
China needs to import energy and so the great power game of controlling
or denying access to energy continues.
karlof1 @ 3 said"Criminality mostly driven by Greed."
james @ 5 said: "trump isn't much different or he would be addressing this too..."
Two bottom line truths, that are apparent...
As always, profits "trump" humanity. How to change that mindset? I for one, don't know,
but, the so called "religious" among us, should ask themselves that same question. IMO,
religion is, as practiced, mostly crowd control..
The great power game is why there is continuity of government policy in the 'US west' no
matter who is elected. Within the great power game democracy in the west is meaningless.
with USA's new found oil independence, the direction they take may change from the last 70
years or so.
Another recent change is the rise of current Russia and their vision of a multi polar
world, also the rise of China.
If the US is changing how it plays the game, then the Brit
players may be getting desperate. They are now small players but unlike the US do not have an
oil reserve.
This may be the reason the Brits have ramped up the propaganda to the ridiculous and also
why they have attempted to take down Trump.
2018-06-26 (Rudaw) When US sanctions were placed on Iran in 2012, the four Asian countries
were given a waiver, requiring them to reduce their business with Iran by 20 percent each six
months rather than halt trade immediately.
The Asian oil buyers are less likely to receive a similar waiver from the Trump
administration Iran may need to resort to a bartering system to continue selling its oil.
Under the 2012 US sanctions, India imported $10.5 billion worth of goods, mainly crude oil,
and exported commodities worth $2.4 billion.
The barter system will be inefficient, as Iran's oil sales are greater than the value of
what it imports from these countries. It also cannot use the currencies of these countries
for international business transactions. http://www.rudaw.net/english/business/250620181
2018-06-26 (Bloomberg) U.S. presses allies to cut Iran oil imports to *zero* by November
* U.S. isn't granting waivers on Iranian oil imports ban
(State Department Official)
"The global economy looks like the Titanic right now. The iceberg is the incoming oil price
spike and the complacent investment community won't even know what hits them. "
-Baby Domer
So, an important question for this board is, could we have reached peak oil production this
year? The Permian will increase substantially into 2020. However, that will be partially
offset by the Venezuelan drop. Add in other declines, and the drop could easily offset any US
production. At some point, OPEC will see that extra production will never meet demand, and
not just waste what they have.
It depends totally on political scenarios, not technical and not financial.
There's still a lot of growth potential to offset the declines:
– Permian
– Other US shales to a degree
– Kanada with it's vast heavy oil ressources
– Venezuela
– Russia
– Iraq
– Iran
– SA (nobody knows), at least they can call to their spare capacity
– Kuwait
– UAE
-Brasil
That's 10 locations, some are politically knocked out ( Ven, Iran partly) from growth.
The more important thing for world economy is: How long can they support the consumption
growth, additional to the decline of all other countries.
I think peak oil is somewhat more melodramatic: When Ghawar finally dries up, we have
reached peak oil. It will dry fast, due to all these horizontal tapping keeping the oil
flowing until the last feed of oil column. And replacing these 5 mb/d will require an
additional fully developed Permian – something not in sight at the moment.
Libya's Tripoli-based NOC Says Exports from Benghazi-based NOC in the east are "illegal"
2018-05-26 BENGHAZI, Libya/TUNIS (Reuters) – Eastern Libyan commander Khalifa
Haftar's forces have handed control of oil ports to a National Oil Corporation (NOC) based in
the east, a spokesman said on Monday, a move the internationally recognized NOC in Tripoli
dismissed as illegal.
If implemented, the transfer of control would create uncertainty for buyers of Libyan oil who
normally go through NOC Tripoli.
In comments later confirmed to Reuters, Ahmed Mismari, spokesman of Haftar's Libya National
Army (LNA), said on television that no tanker would be allowed to dock at eastern ports
without permission from an NOC entity based in the main eastern city, Benghazi.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-oil/east-libyan-forces-say-oil-ports-handed-to-eastern-based-noc-idUSKBN1JL2DQ
Tripoli-based NOC https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgkrEMeXUAADLGS.jpg
Some kind of summary with some details from Libya (from comments section in HFIR article
above – Game Over – Oil Prices Are Going Higher).
Nigeria and Libya are also becoming disruption hotspots. Three of Nigeria's main crude
streams (Forcados, Bonny Light and Qua Iboe) are either halted or severely disrupted, but
violence in Libya grabbed the recent headlines. Militias led by Ibrahim al Jathran, former
head of the local Petroleum Facilities Guard, attacked and briefly seized the 0.35 mb/d Es
Sider and 0.22 mb/d Ras Lanuf terminals from Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA).
Although the LNA are back in control, Libyan oil output has collapsed from 0.95 mb/d to
around 0.55-0.60 mb/d because of the fighting and NOC has declared force majeure at the two
ports (along with apparently unrelated technical issues undermining production at AGOCO-run
fields in the east).
After around 10 days of fighting, the extent of the damage at the two terminals remains
unclear. There is currently no information about the status of Es Sider, which exported
around 0.30 mb/d in the previous three months. The destruction of two storage tanks at Ras
Lanuf, which was exporting around 0.10 mb/d before the clashes, has reduced storage capacity
from 0.95 mb to 0.55 mb. Seven tanks at the terminal had already been damaged in previous
clashes and the destruction of another two leaves only four tanks capable of operating. Once
the fighting is over (and there is a considerable risk of further clashes over the next few
weeks), it will take several days to evaluate the status of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf. This
would be followed by emergency repairs, which could take a week or two, with export capacity
recovering only gradually. Consequently, we expect output to remain at 0.55-0.60 mb/d until
early/mid-July, even as NOC studies options to bypass Ras Lanuf and possibly divert exports
to the Zueitina terminals.
In conclusion: Libya is good for no more than 0.8 Mb/d, but likely less than that in
2018.
The debate seems to be around what effect the risk of secondary sanctions from US
government for international companies will have. Some argue that the US allies and their
companies will not pick a fight over this with the US right now. In either case, it certainly
is not good for the Iranian economy which contracted after the last round of sanctions and
boomed when they were lifted afterwards. Also the Iranians want western equipment and
competence to develop their oil and gas fields (some of their oilfields are somewhat
complicated to develop), and it is not certain Lukoil and russian service companies can be a
good enough replacement.
There are some hurdles with switching customers for large oil volumes. Tanker freight and
insurance services now done by western companies afraid of sanctions will have to be replaced
or the obstacles overcome somehow. But I agree with you that China, while also having a
futures market trading in yuan, will look to Iran when shortage arrives. However the
perception of shortage has still not arrived in oil markets today. Some reduction of export
from Iran is likely both initially and for some time further. Hard to say how much, some
argue that it takes 6-12 months to see the full effects of US sanctions. And once sanctions
now are in place, even if it was untimely given the supply situation in the oil market, it
will not be practical and too confusing as a political move to see them lifted soon (less
than 1 year).
Antony C. Sutton, ´Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution', 1974 New Rochelle,
N.Y.
describes how Wall Street supported bolsjewism in order to prevent that German, suppose also
Dutch and other, trade, with Russia was resumed.
WII and the aftermath created the Atlantic alliance.
Just yesterday Pieter Hoekstra, USA ambassador in the Netherlands, stated that Russia should
be punished for MH17 by more sanctions, no new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
What he did not say that this implies our buying of USA gas, 20% more expensive. The MH17
show, in my opinion is run like the Sept 11 show. Or even the holocaust show, constant
reminders.
The USA fear about Russia and the EU member states seems to be twofold:
more trade with Russia, and the railway connections with China, threaten to turn the USA
into an economic backwater
Precisely. US could eventually (20-30 years from now) turn into a country similar to many
Latin American countries: rich in resources, demographically messy and ungovernable, weak
infrastructure, but above all remote and quasi-provincial.
The 'Atlanticist' project is meant to forestall the provincial Latin American future.
Washington does have some tools: dollar domination, military force, Hollywood, technology.
But none of those are necessarily sustainable without also actively messing up
Euro-Russia-China economic convergence. It might require a war to delay the inevitable slow
descend into a backwater across the Atlantic.
From the Bloomberg article: "The U.S. plans to speak with the governments of Turkey, India
and China, all of which import Iranian oil, about finding other supplies."
Iranian condensate will most likely replace US condensate to China as much as possible.
China is the key to if/when this harsh "embargo" of Iran will ease. They have the strength to
stand up against the US and then others will follow suit (e.g. India). A barter system (goods
vs. goods trade) or payment in yuan could probably be a good enough way to avoid american
banking sanctions. But if China wants to stand up against US at this point is uncertain. If
this strangling of Iran is highly successful, it is hard to see the rewards. A high oil price
that will be the tipping point for the global economy in the wrong direction or indirectly
(hopefully not directly – who needs another war now?) overthrow the Iranian government
and thus the creation of new political problems in the country; a repeat of the Iraq
experience almost. I almost forgot that there is the nuclear issue there as well, maybe that
is also a driver
"We have a lot of diplomatic muscle memory for urging, cajoling, negotiating with our
partners to reduce their investments to zero," the official added.
(This official infers that EU countries will soon capitulate to US demands, but does he
believe that, say, India will agree to this? The CNN reporters don't ask.)
"I think not, it's a lot cheaper to add a few more production wells than to add a couple of
million barrels of high pressure water injection capacity (topsides facilities and the wells
needed to inject it"
Water injection isn't the problem, its water cut. The don't need to inject more if they
keep the water cut stable. In order to keep the water cut, they have to perodically drill new
wells to keep the wells in contact with the Oil column. Over time the Water column push up on
the Oil column (ie Oil floats on Water). All the CapEx/Opex goes into drilling to keep in the
Oil Column Zone as well as add new wells to tap oil trapped in pockets. As the Oil column
continues to shrink and and as the water column become increasing contact with the cap rock
its going to required more and more drilling to maintain production.
My guess well know when SA starts running into problems when we start to see the rig count
increase and the production dropping over a period of a couple of years.
"The drilling of new oil wells is to maintain current production, not to increase it"
SA cannot increase Oil production much. They are working on extracting the remaining cream
(oil column) floating on a see of water. Increasing production would just increase the water
cut and also increase trapped oil that would later be more costly to extract. The only way SA
can increase production is to tap new fields or increase drilling for oil trapped in pockets.
But at some point these options will vanish over time as it will be increasing more difficult
to squeeze more oil out, like trying to squeeze trapped toothpaste out of a depleted
toothpaste tube.
I didn't say water injection was the problem I said it was the limit to increasing
production. It is. Water cut is the problem that leads to decline unless they keep drilling
new wells.
Two ways that increasing water cut is a problem are: 1) you have to inject more water for
the same amount of oil, which they don't have, 2) you have to treat more produced water,
which they don't have capacity for. Exactly what I said above. The third is that it reduces
overall well flow and, more so, oil flow; but that is easily got round if it easy to drill
new wells, as is the case for Saudi, even the offshore fields, which are shallow. That also
solves the first two problems because the individual field and overall country water cuts are
held steady.
The limits on surface facilities are much more expensive and long term (5 years at least)
to get round, but it could be done, therefore it is wrong to say that the only way to
increase production is to tap new fields.
(ps – I worked on water flood oil fields, including some minor studies for Saudi,
for at least 15 years through my career, the water is a bigger influence on the design and
operation than the oil.)
That all together sounds like it's completely senseless to keep some spare capacity for
fields like this.
This capacity will cost billions, hold back for not much. A big oil storage is better
there for satisfying demand peaks or temporary supply losses.
Reserve capacity is cheap to have when you are in primary recovery of a conventional
(giant) field.
The only illusion of reserve capacity would be in fields with tertiary recovery would be
to postpone maintainance for a few months to get that 5% more production.
Some spare is always needed, just to maintain production during maintenance or unplanned
outages. Sparing doesn't postpone maintenance, it means maintenance can be done without
taking the plant offline, or at least not for too long, so you get maximum returns on your
investment (when plants are taken down for major turn arounds it is to do work on items for
which there are no online spares).
Depending on the maturity of the field there is also always different amount of sparage in
the different project components – e.g. the wells, compression, power generation, oil
processing, export capacity, water injection, water processing – the limit is the
component with the least amount of sparage.
In Saudi also, at least for the heavy fields, they have been known to rest them completely
for a time, this allows the water contact to settle out and avoid excessive coning, which
provides a much better sweep of the oil and higher recoveries (I don't think any where else
has that luxury).
So when someone says "we have spare capacity" it can mean almost anything from
2×100% pumps on a particular duty to an entirely unused, ready for action oil
field.
From a modern capitalist approach with everything just-in-time and the next quarterly
statement being all important then excess sparing wouldn't please the shareholders, but Saudi
designed facilities with 50 year life times, so it might be different.
From looking at their recent production profiles, which seem to go up when they report a
new start-up and then decline, and stock draws, which have been consistent since January
2016, I find it hard to believe they have a large amount of "real" spare capacity –
i.e. that's easy to bring on line and that doesn't alter any of the performance of the fields
over the long term or compromise planned maintenance schedules – but I can't say for
sure. And, as I've said, the limit to expanding production (that means beyond just using up
the spare) is almost certainly with the surface facilities for water, so it's likely that is
also the part with the least spare capacity.
It sounds like you believe they might be able to maintain a plateau of 10 Mb/d for many
years, if they just drill more wells as needed. Though I may not be understanding
correctly.
There's the big question. Once the horizontal wells are at the top of the reservoir then you
can't drill any more and once the water contact hits them, even with intelligent completions,
then the decline will be fast (but even that is relative, huge fields take longer to decline
than small ones). There was a report in the Oil Drum some time ago that indicated that a lot
of Ghawar wells were near the limit but nothing much seems to have happened since to indicate
this turned into a problem, but then Saudi has a lot of other fields. On some of their
offshore fields they are replacing all the wellheads to add ESPs, that usually means they
have run out of new well options. Their rig count is declining, but maybe jus because they
are drilling much more productive MRC wells.
It's the difference between the size of the tank and the size of the tap (or for water
injection more like the size of the vent that lets air in to stop the tank collapsing under
suction). Might only know what's going on well after the fact.
I've told you that once you start down the Trade War path forever it will dominate your
destiny.
Well here we are. Trump slaps big tariffs on aluminum and steel in a bid to leverage Gary
Cohn's ICE Wall
plan to control the metals and oils futures markets . I'm not sure how much of this stuff I
believe but it is clear that the futures price for most strategically important commodities are
divorced from the real world.
But today's edition of "As the Trade War Churns" is about China and their willingness to
shift their energy purchases away from U.S. producers. Irina
Slav at Oilprice.com has the good bits.
The latest escalation in the tariff exchange, however, is a little bit different than all
the others so far. It's different because it came after Beijing said it intends to slap
tariffs on U.S. oil, gas, and coal imports.
China's was a retaliatory move to impose tariffs on US$50 billion worth of U.S. goods,
which followed Trump's earlier announcement that another US$50 billion in goods would be
subjected to a 25-percent tariff starting July 6.
It's unclear as to what form this will take but there's also this report from
the New York Times which talks about the China/U.S. energy trade.
Things could get worse if the United States and China ratchet up their actions
[counter-tariffs] . Mr. Trump has already promised more tariffs in response to China's
retaliation. China, in turn, is likely to back away from an agreement to buy $70 billion
worth of American agricultural and energy products -- a deal that was conditional on the
United States lifting its threat of tariffs.
"China's proportionate and targeted tariffs on U.S. imports are meant to send a strong
signal that it will not capitulate to U.S. demands," said Eswar Prasad, a professor of
international trade at Cornell University. "It will be challenging for both sides to find a
way to de-escalate these tensions."
But as Ms. Slav points out, China has enjoyed taking advantage of the glut of U.S. oil as
shale drillers flood the market with cheap oil. The West Texas Intermediate/Brent Spread has
widened out to more than $10 at times.
By slapping counter tariffs on U.S. oil, that would more than overcome the current WTI/Brent
spread and send Chinese refiners looking for new markets.
Hey, do you know whose oil is sold at a discount to Brent on a regular basis?
Iran's. That's whose.
And you know what else? Iran is selling tons, literally, of its oil via the new Shanghai
petroyuan futures market.
Now, these aren't exact substitutes, because the Shanghai contract is for medium-sour crude
and West Texas shale oil is generally light-sweet but the point remains that the incentives
would now exist for Chinese buyers to shift their buying away from the U.S. and towards
producers offering substitutes at better prices.
This undermines and undercuts Trump's 'energy dominance' plans while also strengthening
Iran's ability to withstand new U.S. sanctions by creating more customers for its oil.
Trade wars always escalate. They are no different than any other government policy
restricting trade. The market response is to always respond to new incentives. Capital always
flows to where it is treated best.
It doesn't matter if its domestic farm subsidies 'protecting' farmers from the business
cycle or domestic metals producers getting protection via tariffs.
By raising the price above the market it shifts capital and investment away from those
protected industries or producers and towards either innovation or foreign suppliers.
Trump obviously never read anything from Mises, Rothbard or Hayek at Wharton. Because if he
did he would have come across the idea that every government intervention requires an
ever-greater one to 'fix' the problems created by the first intervention.
The net result is that if there is a market for Iran's oil, which there most certainly is,
then humans will find a way to buy it. If Trump tries to raise the price too high then it will
have other knock-on effects of a less-efficient oil and gas market which will create worse
problems in the future for everyone, especially the very Americans he thinks he's
defending.
read deep into the article -- the best oil goes to China. Europe gets only what is left.
Haven't needed it, but the North Sea is dying. Iran is the next supplier but if sanctions
eliminate them, Russian oil of whatever quality will be the only choice.
Or Europe could ignore sanctions, if they have the courage.
I
wanted to make a comment about the OPEC(and Russia) meeting coming up and a possible production
increase. The speculation going around is that OPEC and Russia might increase production up to
1.80 mbpd. The minimum production increase would be around 500kbpd. What is the most likely
production increase based on past production?
The only four countries that have any ability to increase production are
1) Russia: Current production 10.9mbpd. High production 11.3mbpd Difference -400kbpd 2) Saudi Arabia: Current production 10.0mbpd. High production 10.6mbpd Difference -600kbpd 3) UAE: Current production 2.9mbpd. High production 3.10mbpd Difference -200kbpd 4) Kuwait: Current production 2.70mbpd. High production 2.8mbpd Difference -100kbpd
The high watermark in production for these countries happened from Mid 2016 to Mid 2017.
Currently these four countries are producing about 1.3mbpd below their all-time high production
limits. Ask yourself what is the likelihood that these four countries will increase production
to all-time highs and potentially surpass their highs which would be required to increase
production to 1.80mbpd? When OPEC did announce production cuts at the end of 2016 many believe
they had increased production to unsustainable levels to give each country a higher quota from
the production cuts. The guys a Core Labs believed they had to cut because it would have
threaten the long term integrality of their fields.
My guess is that the most OPEC and Russia can bring back for a sustainable period is about
half of the 1.30mbpd they reduced from their production highs .maybe about 600kbpd
"... According to US Energy Department figures, China imports approximately 363,000 barrels of US crude oil daily. The country also imports about 200,000 barrels a day of other petroleum products including propane. ..."
Just as China topped the list of nations buying US oil, Beijing – retaliating to
unilateral Trump economic threats – sent jitters through energy markets on Friday by
threatening new tariffs on natural gas, crude oil and many other energy products.
On Friday, Beijing threatened to impose tariffs on US energy products in response to $50
billion in tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Such tariffs would inhibit Chinese
refiners from buying US crude imports, potentially crashing US energy markets and hitting the
fossil fuel industry where it hurts the most: in shareholder approval.
"This is a big deal. China is essentially the largest customer for US crude now, and so for
crude it's an issue, let alone when you involve [refined] products, too. This is obviously a
big development," Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, told Reuters.
According to US Energy Department figures, China imports approximately 363,000 barrels of US
crude oil daily. The country also imports about 200,000 barrels a day of other petroleum
products including propane.
The US energy industry has seen its profits boosted by fracking in domestic shale fields,
which produce some 10.9 million barrels of oil per day.
The US is also exporting a record 2 million barrels per day, and encouraging countries like
China to import more US energy products instead of those from Iran, after Trump recently
withdrew from the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) 2015 nuclear arms deal
with Tehran.
China is currently the largest buyer of Iranian oil as well, purchasing some 650,000 barrels
daily during the first quarter of 2018.
According to Bernadette Johnson with the Denver, Colorado, energy consultancy Drilling info,
tariffs will increase prices for other petroleum products including propane and liquefied
natural gas.
"The constant back-and-forth about the tariffs creates a lot of market uncertainty that
makes it harder to sell cargoes or sign long-term [trade] deals," Johnson noted, cited by
Reuters.
In late March, the White House slapped trade sanctions on China, the world's second largest
economy, including limitations in the investment sector as well as tariffs on $60 billion worth
of products.
Citing "fairness" considerations, Trump referred to the car market, stating that China
charged a tariff ten times higher on US cars than the US did on the few Chinese cars sold in
the US.
Separately, in a bid to deliver on campaign promises, Trump announced his intention to
impose a 25-percent tariff on steel imports and a 10-percent tariff on aluminum imports from an
array of US allies, including the EU, Mexico and Canada. Those nations -- longtime allies to
the US -- have promised retaliatory economic measures.
Trump has also reportedly mulled placing a 25-percent import tax on European cars, something
that would significantly affect the highly-profitable US market for expensive German
automobiles.
"... Just yesterday Pieter Hoekstra, USA ambassador in the Netherlands, stated that Russia should be punished for MH17 by more sanctions, no new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. What he did not say that this implies our buying of USA gas, 20% more expensive. The MH17 show, in my opinion is run like the Sept 11 show. Or even the holocaust show, constant reminders. ..."
"... The USA fear about Russia and the EU member states seems to be twofold: (1) more trade with Russia makes subjugation of Russia impossible; (2) more trade with Russia, and the railway connections with China, threaten to turn the USA into an economic backwater ..."
Antony C. Sutton, ´Wall Street and the Bolshevik Revolution', 1974 New Rochelle, N.Y.
describes how Wall Street supported bolshevism in order to prevent that German, suppose also Dutch and other, trade, with Russia
was resumed.
WWII and the aftermath created the Atlantic alliance.
Just yesterday Pieter Hoekstra, USA ambassador in the Netherlands, stated that Russia should be punished for MH17 by more
sanctions, no new gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. What he did not say that this implies our buying of USA gas, 20% more expensive.
The MH17 show, in my opinion is run like the Sept 11 show. Or even the holocaust show, constant reminders.
The USA fear about Russia and the EU member states seems to be twofold: (1) more trade with Russia makes subjugation of
Russia impossible; (2) more trade with Russia, and the railway connections with China, threaten to turn the USA into an economic
backwater
"... My own hunch is that these reports may well be true. How long can the Saudis (and the Western media) conceal what has happened? ..."
"... Second, I believe the trip by our Secretary of State was in response to the incident of April 21st. My hunch is the Crown Prince was gravely wounded and later perished at a Military Hospital. ..."
"... Third, the night of the incident a twitter user named CivMilAir tracked the Royal Medevac jet leaving the airport near the gunfire and documented the airplane turning off its transponder. There was speculation concerning whether or not it was the Crown Prince that night on that thread. There was even push back from other twitter users based in Saudi Arabia. Even one demanding to know how this twitter user obtained this information. ..."
"... Fifth, the outrage at the German Government and the reports from German businesses that the door to trade has been slammed shut this past month. I attribute this to the one and only exile prince from the Royal family, Saudi Prince Khaled Bin Farhan. living in Europe. He was granted asylum by Germany. There were 3 other exiles but they have been tricked or kidnapped back to Saudi Arabia. This Prince was advocating for the removal of the Crown Prince as recently as March 23, 2018. ..."
"... Sixth, I noticed this week in the news that Crown Prince "MBS" has consolidated his control further this week by taking operational control of the construction and cyber security industries in the country. 35% of the Bin Laden group was basically stolen. I watched an interview of Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal after his release from detention and he was clearly shaken. He was playing a confidence game where everything would go back to normal and mention how the Bin Laden group was back working on his projects. Then this? 35% gone overnight. Cyber security crack down or internet crackdown coming in Saudi Arabia? ..."
"... Seventh, there is no way that MBS approved the recent arrest of the feminist. Not after his carefully cultured PR campaign in the United States. ..."
"... Eight, where's Waldo? ..."
"... Here is my speculation. Al-Qaeda will be the cover story. Crown Prince MBS was killed by members of the Royal Family and other powerful individuals he made enemies with in his short rule. ..."
"... The Royal family members who supported MBS are furious at Germany for the above stated reasons and lashing out in all directions. Threatening to invade Qatar if Russia provides them the S-400. I believe even President Trump's bizarre threat to put huge tariffs on German luxury automobiles because the German public doesn't want to buy crappy American cars like the Chevy Impala is his frustration over one of his essential architects on the plan to change regime's in Iran being eliminated. ..."
"... A lot of torture and indiscriminate arrest is going on at this very moment in Saudi Arabia. The family appears split and trust lost. Time will tell. ..."
"... It would appear that there's no one in charge in SA at the moment. One can now expect a period of confusion, and lots of infighting between various factions trying to assert dominance, or just survive. ..."
"... Considering MbS's policies, I think his exit is better for the Middle East. His tilt of SA policy towards the US and Israel is likely to be reversed. ..."
"... All you need to know is that Mr. Media Roadshow decided overnight to shun video cameras, and not come out for Pompeo. The guy is dead as a door knob. He made way too many enemies during the forced corporate retreat he hosted at the Ritz. ..."
"... myself , i think the attack succeed in wounding and ultimately kill the prince , otherwise why no public appearance at all ? ( if i recall , muslim have to be buried no more than 24 hours after death so that's why i assume he was wounded at first and the medical team failed to keep him alive) ..."
"... In Assad's interview with RT he pointed out that the "opposition" first attacked Syria's air defenses at the beginning of the "civil war". Hillary wanted a "no-fly zone" over Syria. All that's missing is Victoria Nuland. ..."
"... The playground version: The neocons and Netanyahu think they're playing Trump, who in turn thinks he's use them. MbS wanted to be one of the cool kids and tried to get in on the action and might have gotten himself dead in the process. ..."
Re Saudi Arabia: I have previously referred to reports regarding the death of the Saudi Crown
Prince, MbS, as a result of the AQ attack on his palace on April 21. Now, pictures are
circulating of his funeral.
There is so far no official announcement, but that means nothing.
My own hunch is that these reports may well be true. How long can the Saudis (and the
Western media) conceal what has happened?
Agree. There is also the report that he was not at the Graduation Ceremony of the King Abdul
Aziz Military College on May 19. (As Defence Minister, he would have been expected to
attend).
I have been following the story. A few things. Yes, I have seen the pictures of the funeral
and his actual corpse prepared for burial under #mbs at twitter. The pictures are not the
best. The size of the corpse and the nose and receding hairline along with the cheekbones and
body size could definitely be MBS along with the eyes.
Second, I believe the trip by our Secretary of State was in response to the incident
of April 21st. My hunch is the Crown Prince was gravely wounded and later perished at a
Military Hospital.
Third, the night of the incident a twitter user named CivMilAir tracked the Royal
Medevac jet leaving the airport near the gunfire and documented the airplane turning off its
transponder. There was speculation concerning whether or not it was the Crown Prince that
night on that thread. There was even push back from other twitter users based in Saudi
Arabia. Even one demanding to know how this twitter user obtained this information.
Fourth, the recent trip of the Lebanon Prime Minister being called to Saudi Arabia when
his schedule indicated no such trip.
Fifth, the outrage at the German Government and the reports from German businesses
that the door to trade has been slammed shut this past month. I attribute this to the one and
only exile prince from the Royal family, Saudi Prince Khaled Bin Farhan. living in Europe. He
was granted asylum by Germany. There were 3 other exiles but they have been tricked or
kidnapped back to Saudi Arabia. This Prince was advocating for the removal of the Crown
Prince as recently as March 23, 2018.
And he asserted that he receives emails and other forms of communications from disaffected
family members and the security services desiring for a change to be made.
Sixth, I noticed this week in the news that Crown Prince "MBS" has consolidated his
control further this week by taking operational control of the construction and cyber
security industries in the country. 35% of the Bin Laden group was basically stolen. I
watched an interview of Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal after his release from detention and
he was clearly shaken. He was playing a confidence game where everything would go back to
normal and mention how the Bin Laden group was back working on his projects. Then this? 35%
gone overnight. Cyber security crack down or internet crackdown coming in Saudi
Arabia?
Seventh, there is no way that MBS approved the recent arrest of the feminist. Not
after his carefully cultured PR campaign in the United States.
Eight, where's Waldo?
Finally, here is what I find so fascinating. The KIng of Saudi Arabia is reported to have
dementia. Unfortunately, I have a great deal of experience with this dreadful disease. My
stepfather. 16 years. There is no King in charge of Saudi Arabia. In fact, if MBS was killed
like I believe there is no legitimate line to the next ruler. Survival of the Fittest.
Here is my speculation. Al-Qaeda will be the cover story. Crown Prince MBS was killed
by members of the Royal Family and other powerful individuals he made enemies with in his
short rule.
The Royal family members who supported MBS are furious at Germany for the above stated
reasons and lashing out in all directions. Threatening to invade Qatar if Russia provides
them the S-400. I believe even President Trump's bizarre threat to put huge tariffs on German
luxury automobiles because the German public doesn't want to buy crappy American cars like
the Chevy Impala is his frustration over one of his essential architects on the plan to
change regime's in Iran being eliminated.
A lot of torture and indiscriminate arrest is going on at this very moment in Saudi
Arabia. The family appears split and trust lost. Time will tell.
Thank you for that excellent rundown of events. I tend to agree with your "speculation".
It would appear that there's no one in charge in SA at the moment. One can now expect
a period of confusion, and lots of infighting between various factions trying to assert
dominance, or just survive.
Considering MbS's policies, I think his exit is better for the Middle East. His tilt of SA
policy towards the US and Israel is likely to be reversed.
All you need to know is that Mr. Media Roadshow decided overnight to shun video cameras,
and not come out for Pompeo. The guy is dead as a door knob. He made way too many enemies
during the forced corporate retreat he hosted at the Ritz.
This is news to me. How big do you think the resulting power struggle would be if MbS was
killed or incapacitated? I can envision outcomes that range from 2nd page news all the way up
to Archduke Ferdinand grade but I don't have any feel for the probabilities.
If true, would it cause you to see the events of the last month in the region in a
different light?
With MBS dead, how will Saudi react to MBS's previous Israel's right to exist scenario,
along with Jerusalem being declared Israel's capital and the embassy move by DT?
How much longer will the Saudi and international press be able to remain silent on
this?
Who do you think will now ascend the Saudi throne as heir apparent?
FB Ali , sir , it is so hard to get info in the AQ Attack that allegedly mortally wound MBS..
as for the shooting reported as a wayward drone , i recall this video (anyone can confirm the
skyline if this is saudi city near palace ?) , the gunfire last for long time , far too long
to be guards firing on a drone.
myself , i think the attack succeed in wounding and ultimately kill the prince ,
otherwise why no public appearance at all ? ( if i recall , muslim have to be buried no more
than 24 hours after death so that's why i assume he was wounded at first and the medical team
failed to keep him alive)
do you think this is the 'blowback' from the massive shakedown that the prince did to his
seniors ?
Has DT done a single thing that has helped Israel? I would say no. In Assad's interview
with RT he pointed out that the "opposition" first attacked Syria's air defenses at the
beginning of the "civil war". Hillary wanted a "no-fly zone" over Syria. All that's missing
is Victoria Nuland.
Your post vividly depicts how isolated Israel has become. I reiterate DT has done nothing
to help Israel and everything to harm it. One is permitted to ask what's going on.
The playground version: The neocons and Netanyahu think they're playing Trump, who in turn
thinks he's use them. MbS wanted to be one of the cool kids and tried to get in on the action
and might have gotten himself dead in the process.
All the while Putin and the SCO crew wait
and play for time as they tangle each other up into an ever larger mess of their own making
hoping to avoid, or minimize, whatever conflict is necessary to get them all to accept the
coming multi-polar world order.
Perhaps in the future when they make a movie about this period it will be called "A Deal
Too Far".
Also "However, a week after the coup speculations, the Crown Prince, along with Saudi King
Salman, was seen at the opening ceremony of a huge entertainment resort Qiddiya – an
ambitious multi-billion dollar project that is expected to include a Six Flags theme park,
water parks, motor sports, cultural events and vacation homes." Sputnik
International
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the 32-year-old
media-savvy leader of the oil kingdom, has been unnaturally quiet recently, so much so
that some in the Middle East media couldn't help but wonder if he is dead.
Bin Salman hasn't been seen in the public eye since his meeting with the Spanish royal
family in on April 12. On April 21, heavy gunfire was heard near a royal palace in Riyadh,
the kingdom's capital. Although Saudi Arabia's state news agency claimed it was a security
force
shooting down a toy drone that had gotten too close to the royal property, some wondered
if the gunfire was in fact a coup led by Saudi royals trying to topple King Salman, Bin
Salman's father.
Some of Saudi Arabia's enemies were pretty sure.
Last week, the
Iranian
newspaper Kayhan reported that the Crown Prince was hit by two bullets during
the attack and may actually be dead, citing "a secret service report sent to the senior
officials of an unnamed Arab state."
"There is plenty of evidence to suggest that the absence of nearly 30 days of Muhammad bin
Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, is due to an incident which is being hidden from
the public," the daily paper claimed.
To add credence to the speculation, Kayhan pointed out that Bin Salman was not
seen on camera when the new U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Riyadh in late April,
while his father, Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, and Foreign Minister Adel
al-Jubeir were photographed.
"... By Irina Slav, a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry. Originally published at OilPrice ..."
By Irina Slav, a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm with over a
decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry. Originally published at OilPrice
"I personally think none of us will be able to get around it," Vitol's chief executive Ian
Taylor
said last week, commenting on the effects that renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran will
have on the oil industry.
The sanctions, to go into effect later in the year, have already started to bite. French
Total, for one,
announced earlier this month it will suspend all work on the South Pars gas field unless it
receives a waiver from the U.S. Treasury Department -- something rather unlikely to happen. The
French company has a lot of business in the United States and cannot afford to lose its access
to the U.S. financial system. So, unless the EU strikes back at Washington and somehow manages
to snag a waiver for its largest oil company, Total will be pulling out of Iran.
Other supermajors have not dared enter the country, so there will be no other pullouts of
producers, but related industries will be affected, too, in the absence of a strong EU reaction
to the sanctions. For example, Boeing and Airbus will both have their licenses for doing
business in Iran revoked, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said , which
will cost them some US$40 billion -- the combined value of contracts that the two aircraft
makers had won in Iran.
Tanker owners are also taking the cautious approach. They are watching the situation
closely, anticipating Europe's move, but acknowledging that the reinstatement could have
"significant ramifications" for the maritime transport industry, as per the
International Group of PI & Clubs, which insures 90 percent of the global tanker fleet.
Everyone is waiting for Europe to make its move even as European companies in Iran are
beginning
to prepare their exit from the country. Everyone remembers the previous sanctions, apparently,
and they don't want to be caught off guard. But the signals from Europe are for now positive
for these companies, of which there are more
than a hundred .
Earlier this month, an adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron
said that Europe's response to the thread of U.S. sanctions on Iran will be "an important
test of sovereignty." Indeed, unlike the last time there were sanctions against Iran, the
European Union did all it could to save the nuclear deal and has signaled it will continue to
uphold it.
While some doubt there is a lot the EU can do against U.S. sanctions, there is one 1996 law
dubbed a blocking statute that will ban European companies from complying with U.S. sanctions,
which would put companies such as Total between a rock and a hard place.
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker
said two weeks ago the commission will amend the statute to include the U.S. sanctions
again Iran and that the amendments should be completed before the first round of sanctions
kicks in in early August.
Many observers believe that if the sanctions are only limited to the U.S. and no other
signatory to the nuclear deal joins them, the effect will be limited as well. As McKinsey
analyst Elif Kutsal
told Rigzone, "Market fundamentals are not expected to change structurally given that Iran
doesn't export crude oil or refined products to the U.S. and exports go mainly to Europe (20
percent) and Asia Pacific (80 percent). Therefore, if the sanctions are only limited to the
United States, then this could cause short-term volatility in prices until a new/revised
agreement framework is put in place."
And this is where Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei scored a goal: He demanded
that the European Union provide guarantees it will continue to buy Iranian crude. If it
doesn't, he said, Iran will restart its nuclear program. Now, if this happens, the EU will not
have much choice but to join the sanctions, and then hundreds of thousands of barrels of
Iranian crude could be cut off from global markets.
However, even this will result in only a temporary decline in supplies, according to Kutsal,
and others that believe that Asian imports from Iran will offset the effect from the U.S.
sanctions. According to this camp, the only thing that can unleash the full effect of sanctions
is the UN joining the sanction push against Iran.
One and a half years after Russia and Turkey signed a deal to build the strategic "Turkish
Stream" gas
pipeline in October 2016 , putting an end to a highly contentious period in Russia-Turkish
relation which in late 2015 hit rock bottom after the NATO-member state shot down a Russian jet
over Syria, on Saturday Russian state energy giant Gazprom and the Turkish government
reached a deal on the construction of the land-based part of the Turkish Stream branch that
will bring Russian gas to European consumers.
According
to Reuters , the two counterparts signed a protocol that would allow the construction,
which was stalled by a legal rift over gas prices, to go forward. Gazprom and Turkey's
state-owned BOTAS agreed on the terms and conditions of the project, Gazprom said in a statement ,
adding that the deal "allows to move to practical steps for the implementation of the project."
The actual construction would be carried out by a joint venture called TurkAkim Gaz Tasima
which will be owned by Gazprom and BOTAS in equal shares, Gazprom said.
Earlier on Saturday, Turkish president Erdogan said that Gazprom and BOTAS resolved a
long-running legal dispute over import prices in 2015-2016, and as a result Turkey would gain
$1 billion as part of the gas-price settlement reached with Gazprom, in which Turkey and the
Russian natgas giant agreed on a 10.25% price discount for gas supplied by Russia in 2015 and
2016.
"We agreed on a 10.25% reduction in the price of natural gas in 2015-2016," Erdogan
announced while speaking at a rally on Saturday. "We got our discount. We get about $ 1 billion
worth of our rights before the election," the Turkish President said, as cited by Anadolu
Agency.
BOTAS had refused to approve the building of the land-based part of the pipeline until the
import price issue was resolved. Until now, it only permitted Gazprom to construct the undersea
part of the line. The construction is currently underway.
Russia and Turkey officially agreed on the project, which consists of two branches, in
October 2016. The first branch will deliver gas to Turkish consumers, while the second one will
bring it to the countries in southern and south-western Europe. The European leg is expected to
decrease Russia's dependence on transit through Ukraine. Each of the lines has a maximum
capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters a year.
Gazprom finished the construction of the deep-water part of the first line of the Turkish
Stream in April. The first Russian gas could start flowing through both legs of the Turkish
Stream by December 2019.
The greenlighting of the Turkish Stream project is sure to infuriate the US which previously
announced it was
considering sanctions of European firms that would participate in the Nothern Stream
Russian gas pipeline.
President Trump went as far as to threaten
Angela Merkel two weeks ago , telling her to either drop the Russian gas pipeline or the
trade war with the US was set to begin.
How Europe reacts to US threats involving the Northern Stream and, soon, the Turkish Stream,
will determine whether Europe will once again find itself a subservient vassal state to US
military and energy lobbying powers, or if Brussels will side with Putin in this growing
conflict, resulting in an unprecedented breach within the so-called " democratic west. "
[May 27, 2018] Turning on Russia by Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould
"... Coming Next, Part 2: The post WWII global strategy of the neocons has been shaped chiefly by Russophobia against the Soviet Union and now Russia ..."
"... * Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould are the authors of Invisible History: Afghanistan's Untold Story , Crossing Zero The AfPak War at the Turning Point of American Empire and The Voice . Visit their websites at invisiblehistory and grailwerk .com ..."
In this first of a two-part series, Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould trace the origins
of the neoconservative targeting of Russia.
By Paul Fitzgerald and Elizabeth Gould April 29.2018
The German newsmagazine Der Spiegel last September reported
that, "Stanley Fischer, the 73–year-old vice chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is
familiar with the decline of the world's rich. He spent his childhood and youth in the British
protectorate of Rhodesia before going to London in the early 1960s for his university studies.
There, he experienced first-hand the unravelling of the British Empire Now an American citizen,
Fischer is currently witnessing another major power taking its leave of the world stage the
United States is losing its status as a global hegemonic power, he said recently. The U.S.
political system could take the world in a very dangerous direction "
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the creation of the so called Wolfowitz
Doctrine in 1992 during the administration of George Herbert Walker Bush, the United States
claimed the mantle of the world's first and only. Unipower with the intention of crushing any
nation or system that would oppose it in the future. The New World Order, foreseen just a few
short years ago, becomes more disorderly by the day, made worse by varying degrees of
incompetence and greed emanating from Berlin, London, Paris and Washington.
As a further sign of the ongoing seismic shocks rocking America's claim to leadership, by
the time Fischer's interview appeared in the online version of the Der Spiegel , he had
already announced his resignation as vice chair of the Federal Reserve -- eight months ahead of
schedule. If anyone knows about the decline and fall of empires it is the "globalist" and
former Bank of Israel president, Stanley Fischer. Not only did he experience the unravelling of
the British Empire as a young student in London, he directly assisted in the wholesale
dismantling of the Soviet Empire during the 1990s.
As an admitted product of the British Empire and point man for its long term imperial aims,
that makes Fischer not just empire's Angel of Death, but its rag and bone man.
Alongside a handful of Harvard economists led by Jonathan Hay, Larry Summers, Andrei
Shleifer, and Jeffry Sachs, in the "Harvard Project," plus Anatoly Chubais, the chief Russian
economic adviser, Fischer helped throw 100 million Russians into poverty overnight –
privatizing, or as some would say piratizing – the Russian economy. Yet, Americans never
got the real story because a slanted anti-Russia narrative covered the true nature of the
robbery from beginning to end.
As described by public policy scholar and anthropologist Janine R. Wedel in her 2009 book
Shadow Elite: "Presented in the West as a fight between enlightenment Reformers trying
to move the economy forward through privatization, and retrograde Luddites who opposed them,
this story misrepresented the facts. The idea or goal of privatization was not controversial,
even among communists the Russian Supreme Soviet, a communist body, passed two laws laying the
groundwork for privatization. Opposition to privatization was rooted not in the idea itself but
in the particular privatization program that was implemented, the opaque way in which it
was put into place, and the use of executive authority to bypass the parliament."
Intentionally set up to fail for Russia and the Russian people under the cover of a false
narrative, she continues "The outcome rendered privatization 'a de facto fraud,' as one
economist put it, and the parliamentary committee that had judged the Chubais scheme to 'offer
fertile ground for criminal activity' was proven right."
If Fischer, a man who helped bring about a de facto criminal-privatization-fraud to
post-empire Russia says the U.S. is on a dangerous course, the time has arrived for post-empire
Americans to ask what role he played in putting the U.S. on that dangerous course. Little known
to Americans is the blunt force trauma Fischer and the "prestigious" Harvard Project delivered
to Russia under the leadership of Boris Yeltsin during the 1990s. According to The American Conservative's James Carden "As the Center for Economic and Policy
Research noted back in 2011 'the IMF's intervention in Russia during Fischer's tenure led to
one of the worst losses in output in history, in the absence of war or natural disaster.'
Indeed, one Russian observer compared the economic and social consequences of the IMF's
intervention to what one would see in the aftermath of a medium-level nuclear attack."
Neither do most Americans know that it was President Jimmy Carter's national security
advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski's 1970s grand plan for the conquest of the Eurasian heartland that
boomeranged to terrorize Europe and America in the 21 st century. Brzezinski spent
much of his life undermining the Communist Soviet Union and then spent the rest of it worrying
about its resurgence as a Czarist empire under Vladimir Putin. It might be unfair to say that
hating Russia was his only obsession. But a common inside joke during his tenure as the
President's top national security officer was that he couldn't find Nicaragua on a map.
If anyone provided the blueprint for the United States to rule in a unipolar world following
the Soviet Union's collapse it was Brzezinski. And if anyone could be said to represent the
debt driven financial system that fueled America's post-Vietnam Imperialism, it's Fischer. His
departure should have sent a chill down every neoconservative's spine. Their dream of a New
World Order has once again ground to a halt at the gates of Moscow.
Whenever the epitaph for the abbreviated American century is written it will be sure to
feature the iconic role the neoconservatives played in hastening its demise. From the chaos
created by Vietnam they set to work restructuring American politics, finance and foreign policy
to their own purposes. Dominated at the beginning by Zionists and Trotskyists, but directed by
the Anglo/American establishment and their intelligence elites, the neoconservatives' goal,
working with their Chicago School neoliberal partners, was to deconstruct the nation-state
through cultural co-optation and financial subversion and to project American power abroad. So
far they have been overwhelmingly successful to the detriment of much of the
world.
From the end of the Second World War through the 1980s the focus of this pursuit was on the
Soviet Union, but since the Soviet collapse in 1991, their focus has been on dismantling any
and all opposition to their global dominion.
Pentagon Capitalism
Shady finance, imperial misadventures and neoconservatism go hand in hand. The CIA's
founders saw themselves as partners in this enterprise and the defense industry welcomed them
with open arms. McGill University economist R.T. Naylor, author of 1987's Hot Money and the
Politics of Debt , described how "Pentagon Capitalism" had made the Vietnam War
possible by selling the Pentagon's debt to the rest of the world.
"In effect, the US Marines had replaced Meyer Lansky's couriers , and the European central
banks arranged the 'loan-back,'" Naylor writes. "When the mechanism was explained to the late
[neoconservative] Herman Kahn – lifeguard of the era's chief 'think tank' and a man who
popularized the notion it was possible to emerge smiling from a global conflagration – he
reacted with visible delight. Kahn exclaimed excitedly, 'We've pulled off the biggest ripoff in
history! We've run rings around the British Empire.'" In addition to their core of
ex-Trotskyist intellectuals early neoconservatives could count among their ranks such
establishment figures as James Burnham, father of the Cold War Paul Nitze, Senator Daniel
Patrick Moynihan, Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson, Jeane Kirkpatrick and Brzezinski himself.
From the beginning of their entry into the American political mainstream in the 1970s it was
known that their emergence could imperil democracy in America and yet Washington's more
moderate gatekeepers allowed them in without much of a fight.
Peter Steinfels' 1979 classic The
Neoconservatives: The men who are changing America's politics begins with these fateful
words. "THE PREMISES OF THIS BOOK are simple. First, that a distinct and powerful political
outlook has recently emerged in the United States. Second, that this outlook, preoccupied with
certain aspects of American life and blind or complacent towards others, justifies a politics
which, should it prevail, threatens to attenuate and diminish the promise of American
democracy."
But long before Steinfels' 1979 account, the neoconservative's agenda of inserting their own
interests ahead of America's was well underway, attenuating U.S. democracy, undermining
détente and angering America's NATO partners that supported it. According to the
distinguished State Department Soviet specialist Raymond Garthoff, détente had been
under attack by right-wing and military-industrial forces ( led by Senator "Scoop"
Jackson ) from its inception. But America's ownership of that policy underwent a shift
following U.S. intervention on behalf of Israel during the 1973 October war. Garthoff writes in
his detailed volume on American-Soviet relations Détente
and Confrontation , "To the allies the threat [to Israel] did not come from the Soviet
Union, but from unwise actions by the United States, taken unilaterally and without
consultation. The airlift [of arms] had been bad enough. The U.S. military alert of its forces
in Europe was too much."
In addition to the crippling Arab oil embargo that followed, the crisis of confidence in
U.S. decision-making nearly produced a mutiny within NATO. Garthoff continues, "The United
States had used the alert to convert an Arab-Israeli conflict, into which the United States had
plunged, into a matter of East-West confrontation. Then it had used that tension as an excuse
to demand that Europe subordinate its own policies to a manipulative American diplomatic gamble
over which they had no control and to which they had not even been privy, all in the name of
alliance unity."
In the end the U.S. found common cause with its Cold War Soviet enemy by imposing a
cease-fire accepted by both Egypt and Israel thereby confirming the usefulness of
détente. But as related by Garthoff this success triggered an even greater effort by
Israel's "politically significant supporters" in the U.S. to begin opposing any
cooperation with the Soviet Union, at all.
Garthoff writes, "The United States had pressed Israel into doing precisely what the Soviet
Union (as well as the United States) had wanted: to halt its advance short of complete
encirclement of the Egyptian Third Army east of Suez Thus they [Israel's politically
significant supporters] saw the convergence of American-Soviet interests and effective
cooperation in imposing a cease-fire as a harbinger of greater future cooperation by the two
superpowers in working toward a resolution of the Israeli-Arab-Palestinian problem."
Qatar's foreign minister reacted publicly on Thursday to the recent wave of visits by
leaders of U.S. Jewish organizations to his country at the invitation of the ruling
Emir.
It seems the Qataris have figured out the best way to influence American foreign policy is to
appeal to the real power brokers in the U.S..
Doha wants to influence D.C. elites. But rather than targeting Congress or the media,
they're lavishly, and disproportionately, focusing on right-wing, pro-Israel Jews
One demand which the Qataris immediately acceded to was the suppression of the al Jezeera
expose on the jewish lobby in American politics.
Two extraordinary events have come together to place Al Jazeera in a vise-like squeeze
that may result in the death of a major TV documentary expose about the power and operations of
the Israel Lobby in the U.S. The same investigative team ... created the remarkable four-part
film, The Lobby, about the UK Israel Lobby.
and
The new documentary follows a similar script. Al Jazeera recruited someone to infiltrate
various Lobby organizations based in Washington...
and
...Haaretz published a story acknowledging that almost all of these American Jewish supplicants
came to Qatar for one very special reason (there may have been others, but this one was key).
They wanted the Al Jazeera documentary killed. They knew if it was aired it would make them
look as shabby, venal, and crude as the UK series did.
Posted by: pantaraxia | May 22, 2018 11:03:42 AM |
6
What happens when a country decides to decouple itself from the US/Saudi axis of evilglobinfo
freexchange
T he role of Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East chaos is quite well known . Recall that
in a letter
of the Podesta email series, John Podesta admitted that both Qatar and Saudi Arabia we re
helping ISIS. Podesta also mentioned that the US should exercise pressure to these countries in
order to stop doing it: " ... we need to use our diplomatic and more traditional
intelligence assets to bring pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are
providing clandestine financial and logistic support to ISIL and other radical Sunni groups in
the region. "
Of course Hillary Clinton wouldn't do anything about this problem too, as in another
letter of the Podesta email series, it was revealed that Bill Clinton was receiving
"expensive gifts" from the Qataris!
As reported by Antimedia , in 2009 Qatar
proposed a pipeline to run through Syria and Turkey to export Saudi gas. Assad rejected the
proposal and instead formed an agreement with Iran and Iraq to construct a pipeline to the
European market that would cut Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar out of the route entirely.
Since, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have been staunch backers of the opposition seeking to
topple Assad. Collectively, they have invested billions of dollars, lent weapons, encouraged
the spread of fanatical ideology, and helped smuggle fighters across their borders.
The Iran-Iraq pipeline will strengthen Iranian influence in the region and undermine their
rival, Saudi Arabia -- the other main OPEC producer. Given the ability to transport gas to
Europe without going through Washington's allies, Iran will hold the upper-hand and will be
able to negotiate agreements that exclude the U.S. dollar completely.
Yet, less than a year ago, a crisis erupted between 'unholy' allies, apparently because Qatar
has chosen to change camp and proceed into a deeper approach with Iran.
As reported by Guardian , Saudi Arabia and its allies have issued a threatening 13-point
ultimatum to Qatar as the price for lifting a two-week trade and diplomatic embargo of the
country, in a marked escalation of the Gulf's worst diplomatic dispute in decades. The onerous
list of demands includes stipulations that Doha close the broadcaster al-Jazeera,
drastically scale back cooperation with Iran , remove Turkish troops from Qatar's soil,
end contact with groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood and submit to monthly external
compliance checks. Qatar has been given 10 days to comply with the demands or face unspecified
consequences.
Then, apparently, Rex
Tillerson tried to persuade Qatar to stay in the unholy alliance and move away from
Iran a day after wrapping up discussions with the king of Saudi Arabia and other officials from
Arab countries lined up against Qatar.
We can tell now that Qatar has not changed stance and chosen to continue its approach with the
winning alliance in the Syrian battlefield. We have the first signs showing that the US empire
and its allies in the Middle East will move against Qatar, beginning with a typical first step:
propaganda war.
A Pentagon "propagandist," who previously headed a company that was paid half a billion dollars
to produce fake terrorist videos in Iraq, was hired by a Dubai based company to create a film accusing Qatar of links to terrorism , the Bureau of
Investigative Journalism has revealed.
Charles Andreae, the CEO of Andreae & Associates which was contracted to produce the film,
used to work for PR firm Bell Pottinger, the UK PR firm that was payed $540 million dollars to
create fake terrorist videos in Iraq.
The firm was employed to produce the anti-Qatari film amidst a diplomatic row in which the
Saudi and UAE governments cut ties with Doha, which it accused of supporting terrorism. Qatar
has strongly denied the accusation and accused its neighbours of fabricating stories. US
intelligence agencies have since confirmed that the UAE orchestrated the hacking of Qatari
government news and social media sites to justify its unprecedented attack against Qatar.
According to the Bureau, Andreae was given over $500,000 to produce a six-part film linking
Qatar with global terrorism. The film, entitled "Qatar: A Dangerous Alliance," features a
number of neo-conservative pundits making the UAE and Saudi case against Qatar in a 37-minute
video.
Washington's double standards and hypocrisy are quite evident in this case too. After this
crisis between allies erupted, a number of US officials immediately launched a series of
statements through which they depicted Qatar as the sole supporter of terrorist groups in the
Middle East. Again, Saudi Arabia, the most authoritarian regime in the region and probably the
biggest supporter of jihadist extremists, was miraculously vanished from their radar and,
naturally, the radar of the Western corporate media.
In case Qatar will not compromise and keep walking the path towards decoupling itself from the
US/Saudi axis of evil, the next steps will be a new series of upgraded, Iranian-type sanctions,
or even a military invasion as the last option. The only thing that can save Qatar for now is
the fact that it hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East .
The Saudi defense ministry announced in a statement on Sunday that Riyadh ruler Faisal bin
Bandar bin Abdolaziz has attended the ceremony instead of bin Salman.
The statement declined to comment on the reason of bin Salman's absence while naturally the
defense minister should participate in such ceremonies.
He didn't appear for any of the Ramadan events either, which is very odd."
Notable quotes:
"... A growing number of videos surfaced the media at the time displaying that a heavy gunfire erupted around King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud's palace in the capital, Riyadh. ..."
"... Witnesses and residents of the neighborhoods near the palace said a coup was underway, adding that the soldiers attacking the palace were guided by footage and intel they were receiving from a drone flying over the palace. ..."
"... Saudi opposition members claimed that "a senior ground force officer has led a raid on the palace to kill the king and the crown prince". ..."
"... Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, has witnessed a series of radical political changes over the past year as Mohammed bin Salman ousted his cousin as crown prince and jailed well-known princes in an anti-corruption purge. ..."
"... Moreover, bin Salman oversees social and economic reforms that have been censured by several powerful Wahhabi clerics. ..."
"... Notably, bin Salman made no media appearance during the April 28 visit of the newly-appointed US State Secretary Mike Pompeo to Riyadh, his first foreign trip as the top US diplomat. ..."
"... During his stay in Riyadh, Saudi media outlets published images of Pompeo's meetings with King Salman and Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. ..."
According to the Persian-language newspaper, Keyhan, a secret service report sent to the
senior officials of an unnamed Arab state disclosed that bin Salman has been hit by two bullets
during the April 21 attack on his palace, adding that he might well be dead as he has never
appeared in the public ever since.
Heavy gunfire was heard near the Saudi King's palace in Riyadh Saudi Arabia on April 21,
while King Salman was taken to a US bunker at an airbase in the city.
A growing number of videos surfaced the media at the time displaying that a heavy
gunfire erupted around King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud's palace in the capital,
Riyadh.
Reports said the king and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, were evacuated to a
bunker at an airbase in the city that is under the protection of the US troops.
While Saudi officials and media were quiet over the incident, there were contradicting
reports over the incident. Witnesses and residents of the neighborhoods near the palace
said a coup was underway, adding that the soldiers attacking the palace were guided by footage
and intel they were receiving from a drone flying over the palace.
Saudi opposition members claimed that "a senior ground force officer has led a raid on
the palace to kill the king and the crown prince".
Videos also showed that a growing number of armored vehicles were deployed around the
palace. 'Bin Salman's special guard' then took charge of security in the capital. Riyadh's sky
was then closed to all civil and military flights as military helicopters from 'Bin Salman's
special guard' were flying over the palace.
Bin Salman was a man who previously often appeared before the media but his 27-day absence
since the gunfire in Riyadh has raised questions about his health.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, has witnessed a series of radical political
changes over the past year as Mohammed bin Salman ousted his cousin as crown prince and jailed
well-known princes in an anti-corruption purge.
Moreover, bin Salman oversees social and economic reforms that have been censured by
several powerful Wahhabi clerics.
Saudi Arabia is also embroiled in a long running conflict in its Southern neighbor Yemen,
dubbed by the United Nations as the world's worst humanitarian crisis.
Notably, bin Salman made no media appearance during the April 28 visit of the
newly-appointed US State Secretary Mike Pompeo to Riyadh, his first foreign trip as the top US
diplomat.
During his stay in Riyadh, Saudi media outlets published images of Pompeo's meetings
with King Salman and Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir.
This is while the state-run outlets used to publish images of meetings in Riyadh between bin
Salman and former US secretary of state Rex Tillerson.
A few days after the April 21 incident, Saudi media published footage and images of bin
Salman meeting several Saudi and foreign officials. But the date of the meetings could not be
verified, so the release of the videos could be aimed at dispelling rumors about bin Salman's
conditions.
It is not clear if bin Salman's disappearance is due to reasons such as him feeling
threatened or being injured in the incident.
It has been almost a month since Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin
Salman made a public appearance, triggering questions whether the April 21 incidents at the
Royal Palace had a role in his disappearance.
Several reports claimed that the security incident in April, what Saudi officials said was a
result of a recreational drone flying near the king's palace in Riyadh, was indeed a palace
coup attempt. Saudi Prince Salman was allegedly injured during the attempt, according to
reports, mostly coming from Iran.
As a man who enjoys the public and media's eye, Salman's absence caught attention especially
after he was not seen on camera during U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's first visit to
Riyadh in late April.
The 32-year-old leader ousted his older cousin as crown prince last summer in a palace coup
and then jailed senior royals as part of an anti-corruption sweep. Prominent clerics have also
been detained in an apparent bid to silence dissent.
Those moves have helped Prince Mohammed consolidate his position in a country where power
had been shared among senior princes for decades and religious figures exercised significant
influence on policy.
But they have also fueled speculation about a possible backlash against the crown prince,
who remains popular with Saudi Arabia's burgeoning youth population
"The US is looking for sales markets. We can understand this, and we are prepared to take
effort to ensure this gas reaches Germany easier. Presently, however, it remains much more
expensive than the gas delivered via the pipeline," the minister told ARD.
In addition, if the US does not change its tactics of behaviour and continues thinking only
of its economic interests, then Europe will act similarly, the minister added.
Earlier, Us officials said that the United Stats may impose sanctions on the companies
involved in the implementation of the Nord Stream 2
project. US Assistant Secretary of State Sandra Oudkirk said that Washington could consider
retaliatory measures within the framework of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions
Act. She explained the US position as follows: the construction of the gas pipeline will
strengthen Europe's dependence on the Russian natural gas.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany regards the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as
a safe economic project for Europe.
Nord Stream is an offshore natural gas pipeline from Vyborg in the Russian Federation to
Greifswald in Germany that is owned and operated by Nord Stream AG. The project includes two
parallel lines. The first line was laid by May 2011 and was inaugurated on 8 November 2011. The
second line was laid in 2011-2012 and was inaugurated on 8 October 2012. At 1,222 kilometres
(759 mi) in length, it is the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world, surpassing the Langeled
pipeline. It has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic metres (1.9 trillion cubic feet), but
its capacity is planned to be doubled to 110 billion cubic metres (3.9 trillion cubic feet) by
2019, by laying two additional lines.
Sandra Oudkirk, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Energy,
has just threatened to sanction the Europeans if they continue with the Nord Stream 2
pipeline project to bring gas in from Russia across the Baltic Sea. That country is also seen
by the US as an adversary and its approach is by and large the same – to issue orders for
Europe to adopt a confrontational policy, doing as it is told without asking too many
questions.
Iran and Nord Stream 2 unite Moscow and Brussels in their opposition to this diktat. On May
17, Iran
signed a provisional free-trade-zone agreement with a Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union
(EEU) that seeks to increase the current levels of trade valued at $2.7 billion. The deal
lowers or abolishes customs duties. It also establishes a three-year process for reaching a
permanent trade agreement. If Iran becomes a member of the group, it would expand its economic
horizons beyond the Middle Eastern region. So, Europe and Russia are in the same boat, both
holding talks with Iran on economic cooperation.
"... Several years ago Putin made a speech at the UN in favor of upholding International Law I thought at the time this "diplomatic statesmanship" was going to be Putin's way of bring Russia back into equal power with the Europeans and the US. Some have wondered and been asking about Putin not being as aggressive as he could be in defending Syria and Iran. Putin's holding off on tough talk/action could be amassing more power in the end. Putin comes off as the voice of sanity..exactly what the Europeans want to hear and see. ..."
Several years ago Putin made a speech at the UN in favor of upholding International Law I
thought at the time this "diplomatic statesmanship" was going to be Putin's way of bring
Russia back into equal power with the Europeans and the US. Some have wondered and been
asking about Putin not being as aggressive as he could be in defending Syria and Iran.
Putin's holding off on tough talk/action could be amassing more power in the end. Putin comes
off as the voice of sanity..exactly what the Europeans want to hear and see.
As Europe turns away from the US they turn to Putin.
If anyone remembers all the Jew rags making fun of "old Europe" during the Iraq war run up
and urging that the US break with them as outdated relics no longer needed in the new modern
age -- this is what it was all about -- separating the US from its traditional allies who
were not as subservient to Israel as the US. So .now we are down to the Jew plan Europe and
sanity vr the US Orange Clown and his allies of midget Nazi Israel, Saudi and the UAE.
Germany begs Russia to pick up the torch that US has dropped
"Germany's Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, who has a history of expressing anti Russian
rhetoric relevant to Russia's presence in Syria as well as an alleged cyber attack on the
German Foreign Ministry which Maas says that he 'has to assume stemmed from Russia', has
turned an about face. He has traveled, for the first time, to Moscow to discuss international
diplomacy, the Iran nuclear deal, peace talks on Ukraine, and Syria.
Maas met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, where he encouraged Russia to
leverage its influence with Iran to help spur the Middle Eastern state in remaining committed
to the nuclear deal, which Trump abandoned earlier in the week.
Germany's Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, who has a history of expressing anti Russian
rhetoric relevant to Russia's presence in Syria as well as an alleged cyber attack on the
German Foreign Ministry which Maas says that he 'has to assume stemmed from Russia', has
turned an about face. He has traveled, for the first time, to Moscow to discuss international
diplomacy, the Iran nuclear deal, peace talks on Ukraine, and Syria.
Maas met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, where he encouraged Russia to
leverage its influence with Iran to help spur the Middle Eastern state in remaining committed
to the nuclear deal, which Trump abandoned earlier in the week.
Maas then declared that Germany was interested in bringing back the peace talks on the
Ukraine, together with other European partners. Maas also pointed out that the Syrian
conflict can't be settled without Russia, before contributing a wreath to the tomb of the
unknown soldier, which is a dedication to Russian soliders who died fighting the Germans in
WW2.
Deutsche Welle reports:
Germany's top diplomat Heiko Maas and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov both called
for the nuclear deal with Iran to be upheld on Thursday, during Maas' first official visit
to Russia. The appeal marks a rare moment of unity between Moscow and Berlin just days
after US walked out on the 2015 accord.
In Moscow, Maas urged Russia to influence Tehran and make it stick to the deal, which
aims to limit Iran's alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons. The German foreign minister also
said he was seeking details from the US on its plans for future sanctions against Iran
US President Donald Trump has shrugged off pressure from allies to keep the deal in place
and called the accord "defective at its core." However, leaders of the UK, France, and
Germany all contacted Iranian President Hasan Rouhani in the attempt to salvage the
accord.
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel called Rouhani on Thursday to reaffirm Germany's
commitment to the deal "as long as Iran continues to fulfil its obligations," said Merkel's
spokesman Steffen Seibert. Merkel also said she was ready to negotiate about Iran's
ballistic missiles and involvement in Syria and Yemen.
Angela Merkel is also set to visit Russia next week.
Visiting Moscow on Thursday, Germany's top diplomat Maas suggested reviving the peace
talks between Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia on the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Lavrov responded by saying Russia was "ready to consider" this offer.
Maas also called for "honest dialogue" with Moscow and for Russia to be included in
global diplomacy, despite its differences with Berlin. Maas admitted that the conflict in
Syria "cannot be solved without Russia."
The German diplomat also laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow,
which is dedicated to the Soviet soldiers killed during World War II.
Also in a bid to get Russia to assume a leadership position relative to preserving the
nuclear deal, and by extension, the European economy, Merkel got on the phone with Russian
President Vladimir Putin, where he mutually voiced his concern over Trump's action, and
where Merkel also came forward about the situation in Syria.
TASS reports:
BERLIN, May 11. /TASS/. Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Peter Altmaier
has confirmed that he will visit Moscow at the beginning of the next week, he said in an
interview with German radio station Deutschlandfunk released on Friday.
"I will follow my colleague [German Foreign Minister Heiko] Maas, who attended
negotiations in Moscow yesterday. I will be there on Monday and Tuesday, and Chancellor
[Angela Merkel will visit Sochi -- TASS] during the week," Altmaier said.
In their March 15
letter , 39 US senators
called on the Treasury and State Departments to utilize all the sanction tools at their
disposal to fight the Nord Stream 2 project to bring cheap Russian gas to Europe. On March 29,
US Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman told Russia's RBK TV that he cannot rule out the
possibility that Russian assets in America could be seized over the Skripal case. If Washington
goes that far, it will be pure highway robbery. And the response will not be long in coming.
That interview took place right after the British parliament had
announced an investigation into some money-laundering schemes allegedly associated with
Russia. The UK government has unveiled its
"Fusion Doctrine" to counter what it's calling Russian propaganda.
The US policy of making Europeans bow to pressure has been largely successful. The leading
European powers -- the UK, Germany and France – --
are pushing to force the EU to impose new sanctions on Iran, in order to persuade the US
not to pull out from the Iran nuclear deal. This is a last-minute attempt to keep the agreement
in effect, as it is widely expected that President Trump will not certify it in May. Europeans
may bow to American pressure in a bid to appease Washington, but Russia is also a party to the
agreement, which cannot be scuttled without Moscow's consent. Adding additional conditions will
violate the terms of the deal. It won't be supported internationally. If new Iran sanctions are
introduced unilaterally by the West, the issue will become a bone of contention that will
further worsen relations with Moscow.
"... How about the West which has been trying to build a gas pipeline through Syria into Turkey to supply Europe with gas and break Russia's monopoly of European gas supplies. Don't believe me read the Doha agreement where the west recognised the Syrian rebels, this pipeline was a pre requisite for that recognition. ..."
"... And why would Assad who is winning the war do the one thing that would give America and other western countries the chance to get involved because of outrageous moral indignation. Assad and Outing really aren't that stupid. ..."
How about the West which has been trying to build a gas pipeline through Syria into
Turkey to supply Europe with gas and break Russia's monopoly of European gas supplies. Don't
believe me read the Doha agreement where the west recognised the Syrian rebels, this pipeline
was a pre requisite for that recognition.
Israel? which is not happy with Iran and Lebanon having a presence in Syria, worried that
America was withdrawing.
AlQaeda or the Syrian Rebels, many are both who are losing the war and this is a last
desperate attempt to drag in America and the west?
You've also got Turkey and the Kurds (the Kurds were abandoned by the West after they had
fulfilled their useful purpose), both also players in the region but I can't see a motive
here.
And why would Assad who is winning the war do the one thing that would give America
and other western countries the chance to get involved because of outrageous moral
indignation. Assad and Outing really aren't that stupid.
Any or all of the above could be the true motivation. I am no fan of Assad, Putin, or
Trump or May (or the Blair clone Macron) but the question you have to ask yourself is who
gains from this? And is. this in the interests of a resolution to a conflict, to your safety
or is it something else?
Report post " What exactly do we get from Russian that we couldn't do without? " <== The
willingness to ally with the U.S. vs the Chinese.
There is no denial of what Russia has done in the last few years, and it's wrong! However,
what is entirely missing from the western media is the U.S. ambassador to the USSR, Jack
Matlock, and George Kennan have been warning the American political elites since the 90's,
prior to Putin was even known and in politics, that the American foreign policy is steering us
straight into confrontations with Russia! It's not if but when it will happen REGARDLESS OF who
is in Kremlin! Nobody cared to heed because we were indulging ourselves as the sole superpower
in the world.
Neither has the American media reported even our old friend, Gorbachev, is praising Putin
and has harsh words for the U.S. In a nutshell, the Russians don't like to be treated as a
nobody country, ie. with decisions of world affairs already made and shoved at their face, and
they can either put up or shut up! However, that is exactly how Washington has conducted
business with Russia until the crisis in Ukraine in 2014. Would the American public put up with
a revolution led by a Russian politician in Mexico City or Ottawa, even though it's Mexican or
Canadians self-determination? Then what makes us think the Russians would tolerate John McCain
leading an anti-Russian revolution in Kiev, even if it's Ukrainian self-determination? Don't
forget the U.S. directly invaded Grenada when they were exercising their self-determination to
ally with the USSR!
This is not about defending Russia. The Russians can take care of that themselves. Rather,
can the U.S. afford to have Russia and China solidify their alliance again? It's already
happening unless we can adopt a sensible Russian policy to turn it around. Who would you rather
ally with? Someone (like the U.S.) who expects you to be a subordinate vs another (like China)
who is willing to treat you as an equal?
One can certainly argue how it is possible to ally with a country like Russia, who sponsors
dictators, meddles in our elections and tramples on other nation's self-determination. If you
are willing to be honest with yourself, just Google it. There is not one thing we accuse of the
Russians that our politicians are not doing it overseas, by MULTIPLE magnitude! The biggest
gripe the Russians have toward the U.S. is "are you preaching democracy or hypocrisy?" Yes, one
sin doesn't justify another, but why our politicians can't uphold this principle when they are
committing treacheries overseas?
I suggest that Russia act as "marginal producer" and refuse to sell oil,
gas or raw petroleum products for less than double the price of other
suppliers.
All of a sudden... thing will change.
After the treatment Russia has gotten for the past year or more, they
are more than justified to adopt this policy.
What's going on?
Read this:
"In late March, the U.S. State Department warned European corporations that
they will likely face penalties if they participate in the construction of
Russia's Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, on the grounds that "the project
undermines energy security in Europe"
The Nord Stream 2 project and the
denial of pipelines through Syria territory is what's eating at the zio-cons.
This is power politics and Russia / China are too much of a threat.
The Russian central bank opened its first overseas office in Beijing
on March 14, marking a step forward in forging a Beijing-Moscow alliance
to bypass the US dollar in the global monetary system, and to phase-in a
gold-backed standard of trade.
Apr 3 2017 - Europe approves Nordstream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to
Germany
April 6 2017 - need to attack Syria.
Coincidentally, with a new government a gas pipelin can be run from
Qatar to Europe and cut-off Russian gas revenue.
*Three Mediterranean EU countries and Israel agreed on Monday to
continue pursuing the development of a gas pipeline ... EU countries and
Israel ... April 3, 2017 ...*
EU, Israel agree to develop Eastern Mediterranean gas pipeline
The Optics of the Inter National Geo Political Crises would suggest
that The Criminal Oligarch Cabal Bankster Intelligence Deep State Crime
Syndicate are going "All In."
The petroyuan project is the key. It will smash the petrodollar zio-world.
Saddam Hussien thought of doing that in the 80's by consolidating
Arab oil into a basket of currencies backed by gold. The problem for
him was he was a disposable puppet and not able to defend that
project. China and Russia are a different matter. It's driving the
zios batty.
And, the Yuan is now in the IMF basket of SDR's. Ultimately, the
Petro Dollar will meet its demise & it will be decided by which is
the cleanest, dirtiest shirt to put on among the SDR's.
"... I think the only that would really cause the Russians serious economic hardship at this point would be a total EU embargo on Russian oil/natgas. That, of course, would cause the rest of Europe a fair amount of hardship, too, as they would then have to pay 3 or 4 times as much for frack-gas from the US. ..."
I think the only that would really cause the Russians serious economic hardship at this
point would be a total EU embargo on Russian oil/natgas. That, of course, would cause the
rest of Europe a fair amount of hardship, too, as they would then have to pay 3 or 4 times as
much for frack-gas from the US.
Of course, oil/gas being fungible, the EU in such an eventuality would buy higher priced
gas/oil from us or someone and the Russians would just end up selling to other entities.
Whatever we sell to Europe is fuel we can't sell to others and it's not like our export
market is infinitely expandable. The EU has a huge need for natural gas which it mostly gets
from Russia via pipeline. Even if the US had that much surplus capacity, it would take years
to come up with the means to export that much LNG..
Hagios | Apr 11, 2018 8:50:17 AM |
58 I think that the read target here is the Nord Stream II pipeline. They're currently
unwilling to cancel it out of economic considerations, but they think that they could get away
with cancelling it if NATO attacks Syria and Russia responds with "unprovoked aggression."
NATO's attack IMO will be just large enough that Russia has to respond, then Trump and co. will
cease further military action and continue with economic warfare.
Transit of Russian natural gas via Ukraine will be reduced to just about 10-12 billion cubic
meters annually after the completion of two new pipelines -- Turkish Stream and Nord Stream 2.
That's what Gazprom's chief executive Alexei Miller told a Russian TV channel yesterday, confirming Kiev's
fears that Nord Stream 2 will deprive it of a lot of income in the form of transit fees.
The significance of the new figure can easily be seen when compared with the transit
quantities for last month: Gazprom sent
8.1 billion cubic meters of gas via Russia's eastern neighbor in March, a 21.3-percent
increase on the year. In other words, when Turkish Stream and Nord Stream 2 are ready, Ukraine
will receive something like a 12th of its current annual gas transit revenues from Gazprom.
This is reason enough for Kiev to be so vocally against Nord Steam 2, but unfortunately for
Ukraine, Germany is just as vocally supportive of the project, of which it will be the biggest
beneficiary. The expanded Nord Stream pipeline will have a capacity of 110
billion cubic meters annually.
Still, Miller said, not all transit via Ukraine will be suspended. "We are not saying we
will stop entire transit via Ukraine, since there are neighboring countries that border Ukraine
on the side of Europe. Naturally, supplies to these European countries will continue via
Ukraine."
While the news is bad for Ukraine, it makes sense for Russia as European countries eagerly
seek alternatives to Russian gas, including the "neighboring countries that border Ukraine,"
notably Poland. Yet Germany is by far Gazprom's biggest client in Europe and Russian gas is the
cheapest for Europe's largest economy, hence the support for a project seen as controversial by
the European Commission.
Turkish Stream, for its part, will send Russian gas to the European part of Turkey up to the
border with Greece, to supply gas to southeastern Europe. Its capacity is much smaller than
Nord Stream's, but still larger than the future transit via Ukraine, at 15.75
billion cubic meters of gas.
"... North Korea's negotiating position has not really changed with the announcement. They have repeatedly said for years they are willing to agree to denuclearization of the Peninsula in return for security guarantees. I find the media trumpeting this as a new development rather vexing. Anyways, China has been putting the screws on them since about September/October (Apparently, they told Kim Jongun they know they can't overthrow the DPRK government, but they can get rid of him personally), which is also why there have not been any new nuclear tests. ..."
"... I think Yves has got it right: USA threatens PRC with tariffs, so PRC pressures NK to make concessions to the USA. i.e. Two big guys screwing the little guy. ..."
"... In the USA, imperialist machtpolitik is a thoroughly bipartisan affair. It doesn't matter how faithfully NK or PRC might fulfill obligations. Trump's successors, whoever they may be, will simply apply more pressure and demand more concessions. They won't stop until somebody else stops them. ..."
I believe Trump could negotiate a deal. But I also believe he could blow up the whole talk
before it even happens. He has shown that he'll bend quickly to neocon pressure, with
increased interest in foreign war (Bolton hiring) and the ramping up of hostilities by
bouncing Russians from the U.S. over the phony poisoning story in the UK.
I don't disagree with your comment, but not comfortable with the term "bend to". Trump
gets enamored with different people at different times, but he always is looking
down at them. They may get enough rope to scare the rest of us, but they are still on a
rope.
Bolton is horrible, but a lot of other horrible people have come and gone in this really
quick year.
Bolton is horrible but probably won't last long. Nobody at Trump's ear has, including his
own children.
Trump just announced that we're withdrawing from Syria. That's more than Obama ever
did.
Part of being a nationalist demagogue is that you're not as interested in foreign wars
unless they enrich the country. Not a single one of our wars does that. There's nothing
interesting in mercantilism, for instance, that we can't do at home (drill baby drill).
I'm not saying I agree with that view, I'm just saying that if he's a nationalist
demagogue, it only follows that he's not interested in, uh, "non-for-profit warmaking".
I am NO Trump fan or voter, but it does appear that he's the first one to apply sanctions
to those specific Chinese banks handling the trade with North Korea.
(Somewhat) OT, but it strikes me that the best way to look at Trump is through the lense
of what he is – the US version of Sylvio Berlusconi. A sleazy billionaire Oligarch with
no core principles and a fondness for Bunga Bunga parties.
Rather than as LITERALLY HITLER as per the verbiage of hashtag the resistance.
Thus, rather than as a crazed madman bent on "evil" at all times one wonders whether Mr.
Bunga Bunga would do a deal with Lil' Kim. Sure he would, assuming that the ruling military
Junta allows him to. It might be in the interest of the latter to de-escalate this particular
hotspot (as NK crisis/hype fatigue may set in) and simply push Iran as the next flashpoint to
hype.
Indeed! They even sound quite similar -- I recall in a speech that Berlusconi gave when he
was still the Italian president and the Italian left was screaming for his resignation,
Sylvio claimed such demands were making him uneasy, since if he was to go home, and he had 20
homes, it would be difficult for him to decide which house or mansion to go to!
It seems the bottom line for negotiations with North Korea have little to do with this
article which covers Trump's thoughts on nuclear proliferation between major powers that have
massive stockpiles.
North Korea is mainly interested in protecting itself from regime change and from becoming
a US outpost (as in target) butt up against China. It is hard to believe that Kim Jong-Un
would get any advantage whatsoever out of dismantling his nuclear arsenal, however small. One
assumes he is aware of Gaddafi in particular and US's track record on keeping it's promises
– particularly over the span of different administrations – in general.
The above comment assumes full disarmament as the minimum condition of any "negotiation"
since Trump has gone so far out of his way to make that clear.
Oh, and now see the lead story at the Financial Times, China uses economic muscle to bring
N Korea to negotiating table:
China virtually halted exports of petroleum products, coal and other key materials to
North Korea in the months leading to this week's unprecedented summit between Kim Jong Un,
the North Korean leader, and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
The export freeze -- revealed in official Chinese data and going much further than the
limits stipulated under UN sanctions -- shows the extent of Chinese pressure following the
ramping up of Pyongyang's nuclear testing programme. It also suggests that behind Mr Xi's
talk this week of a "profound revolutionary friendship" between the two nations, his
government has been playing hard ball with its neighbour.
I would normally agree but Kim Jong-Un was just summoned to China. Not even given a state
visit. The Chinese announced North Korea would denuclearlize:
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un pledged his commitment to denuclearization and to meet
U.S. officials, China said on Wednesday after his meeting with President Xi Jinping, who
promised China would uphold friendship with its isolated neighbour.
China has heretofore pretended that it couldn't do anything about North Korea. It looks
like Trump's tariff threat extracted China jerking Kim Jong-Un's chain as a concession. I
don't see how Kim Jong-Un can defy China if China is serious about wanting North Korea to
denuclearlize. Maybe it will merely reduce its arsenal and stop threatening Hawaii (even
though its ability to deliver rockets that far is in doubt) and just stick to being able to
light up Seoul instead.
Agree. I wasn't aware of the details you mention above regarding the export freeze. (I
won't use Google and my normal 'trick' doesn't work to get around FT's paywall – and I
won't use the trial membership either). I'm hopeless.
Anyway, you make a very convincing case. I can only imagine that Kim Jong Un is one
miserable scared rat. My point about a "silk noose" below was perhaps on the mark.
Kim might agree on paper or through an insincere promise to denuclearize, but I don't see
a closed authoritarian regime like the North agreeing to an inspection regime that would
insure that such a pledge would be lived up to. Reduction, but build-up on the sly w/o
inspections.
China may be interested in a deal to the extent that it prevents a bloody war breaking out
that they'll probably expend manpower to help clean up and it insures the security of a North
Korean buffer that keeps American troops off their border; After all, they've got to keep the
powder dry for "reunification" with Taiwan.
I also don't believe that the US would agree to concessions, such as removing American
troops from the peninsula. the pentagon wouldn't like it, the hawks around Trumps wouldn't
like it, and I believe the SK leadership would not be too crazy about the potential
ramifications for their security with such an agreement.
But, can Trump (by extension, the US), make an agreement that can be relied on over its
term?
For any hope of NK trusting any deal with the US he would have to stand by the Iranian
deal. Then there's Bolton and the Neocon Will To War, for deeply pathological reasons which
by nature cannot be debated.
In this case, the mere possibility of a "deal" is possible, but only if there is a third
party to hold both of them to it.
That's the crazy thing about this. What possible inducement could Kim Jong-Un have gotten
to attend his own funeral? Why would anyone trust the US an inch?
I suppose if he can keep his own people in a suspended state of extreme propaganda, then
he might be vulnerable to his own medicine, but that seems at odds with his behavior so far
(such as the assassination of his uncle). If anything, he would be especially leery of
anything coming out of the US.
And then can he really be that psyched out by Bolton, Pompeo and Torture Lady so
that good cop Trump can hand him is own death certificate with a space for his signature?
Whatever happened during this China trip, the overarching theme must have been how to
manage the US. Here's one rough scenario:
NK 'disarms' to some definition, under the auspices of China, acquiring in return an
explicit Chinese security umbrella for the buffer it presents between them and SK. Nobody
really wants a unified Korea in any case. In return, the US vacates SK militarily, ever so
discretely and over time.
Done correctly, and with the finesse necessary for Trump, China is in a position to
extract all sorts of concessions from the US on other fronts as well. Nothing positive is
going to happen here without China, and they hold most of the cards. If nothing positive
happens, we have to consider the pressure that'd build on Trump to do something, anything,
and that probably being something rash. (Better a big disaster over there than a mammoth one
over here thinking).
"he can't go willy nilly and set nukes a-flying just because it struck him as a good idea
that day."
I mean sure. His "button" isn't literally connected to a missile somewhere, but he sure as
hell can ask that nukes be fired whenever and wherever he wants. You could argue that someone
in the chain of command would prevent that from happening, but that's more of a hope than a
guarantee. For a really good read on how this all works and the history of the nuclear
program I highly recommend https://www.amazon.com/Command-Control-Damascus-Accident-Illusion/dp/0143125788
With Bolton on board and seemingly everyone with half a brain, a little logic and the
ability to hold their tongue for more than about 5 seconds out, I highly doubt anything will
come of these negotiations. In fact, I'm more worried that the US will get steamrolled by
China and NK.
That isn't true. See the link I provided, which you clearly did not bother to read.
Various people can refuse his order as illegal. Former Secretary of State Jim Baker, in a
Financial Times, before Trump was elected, said the same thing. Bolton is the National
Security Adviser. He may have a lot of informal power by having direct access to the
President, but he does not tie in to the formal chain of command, either at the DoD or
State.
Oh I read it and I've read many other articles and a lot of non-fiction on the issue.
Again, I would call your position and the position of this article hopeful at best. Trump has
the football, he has the codes in his jacket pocket and everyone responsible for carrying out
the order to launch has been raised up through a military system that ensures no one
questions an order from their superior. Relying on various people to refuse his order as
illegal in this system is not a fail-safe I feel comfortable with. I do find it interesting
that you just assume I didn't read the article as if this one article is the end all be all
on the subject.
The article seems a bit confused about what it's trying to say. Stopping nuclear
proliferation has been a major policy priority of the US and other western governments since
the 1960s, and if I recall correctly it was one of Bolton's priorities when he was in Bush
the Lesser's administration. It's something in which all of the declared nuclear powers have
an interest, because the smaller the number of nuclear powers in the world, the greater the
difference between them and the rest. This is much more important than wild fantasies about
rogue attacks: if N Korea becomes a de facto nuclear power like India, Israel and Pakistan,
then all sorts of other countries might be tempted to have a go, starting with S Korea (which
has the capacity and has been caught cheating before). Whilst this risk is objectively small,
an end to the NK programme would make it even smaller. I suspect the deal will be that NK
denuclearizes and China guarantees its security: a non-nuclear NK will be even more of a
client state than it is now.
Nuclear competition among the superpowers is quite different and involves a whole set of
different issues.
Less warfare = more wall
But remember the last time Trump said something in Syria's favor? A chemical attack happened
in small village for no logical reason and the hawks immediately took to framing Assad. Trump
then backed off and took harder line on Assad, launching missiles into Syria.
So I'm inclined to think he wants a deal. But look out for screaming hawks immediately
trying to scuttle anything.
Perhaps 30 years ago, Trump was an international defense luminary, but I see little
evidence of the boasted emotional control and cool Trump claimed. He is unarguably a
successful grifter. Is that what it takes to make peace? What happens when the other guy
realizes he has been lied to by a congenital liar? Back to square 1.
In my take, the recent meeting between the heads of China and N Korea just Trumped any
leverage the US might have had in peace talks. Trump will be there only if a scapegoat is
needed. Both S. Korea and Japan have expressed doubts about our reliability as a defense
shield against powerful China – Japan and the Koreans' neighbor. What Little Rocketman
has likely achieved is diplomatically checkmating the US. Now Trump's tariff threats serve
only to push US allies in the region closer to China. Should that turn out to be the case,
the economic repercussions are as dangerous and unpredictable as nukes in the air or as Trump
himself. I sure hope I got this all wrong.
"no enduring principles" is a feature of politicians everywhere today. Their concern is to
represent the rich and their qualification is to present those biased arguments in a way that
beguiles the electorate into supposing its a good idea for them as well. Step Two is the "who
would have thought it?" response after the country catches on.
In former times the candidate for public office would assert his principles on the
hustings and the voters would remember what they knew of him before voting. Sure, there were
ambitious unreliable people who were willing to exchange their reputations for office but
they were few. We should get back to those days.
We allowed our merchants and spooks to drive USSR to the precipice without any thoughts
about the nukes they had. It appeared then that warheads supposedly in Ukraine were missing.
We will likely discover what happened to them in due course. It is possible that surveillance
of communications is the main reason they are not a thread for the time being but that does
not mean they have dropped out of existence.
Thank you NC for introducing an issue that should concern economists as much as everyone
else.
North Korea's negotiating position has not really changed with the announcement. They have
repeatedly said for years they are willing to agree to denuclearization of the Peninsula in
return for security guarantees. I find the media trumpeting this as a new development rather
vexing. Anyways, China has been putting the screws on them since about September/October
(Apparently, they told Kim Jongun they know they can't overthrow the DPRK government, but
they can get rid of him personally), which is also why there have not been any new nuclear
tests.
Don't forget the United States has itself promised to denuclearize, under the NPT.
It would certainly bring me great pleasure if Trump of all people were to bring about some
great positive change in regards to the Forever War with North Korea. Imagine all the whining
liberals if Trump, unlike Obama, actually did something worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize.
I think Yves has got it right: USA threatens PRC with tariffs, so PRC pressures NK to make
concessions to the USA. i.e. Two big guys screwing the little guy.
PRC and NK leaders might think that all they have to do is get through a short patch of
bad weather until 2020. If so, they are badly kidding themselves.
In the USA, imperialist machtpolitik is a thoroughly bipartisan affair. It doesn't
matter how faithfully NK or PRC might fulfill obligations. Trump's successors, whoever they
may be, will simply apply more pressure and demand more concessions. They won't stop until
somebody else stops them.
Russian elite already views May's government as bandits, who staged this despicable provocation. So stakes for British elite are
very high.
And the way May government tried to capitalize on this "poisoning" is really like going "all in". May clearly went what French call
"va bank". Reckless statement of Johnson, who is a very weak diplomat, but no fool, if a clear testament that they expect to prevail
with pretty weak cards. With ultimate reliance on power of the USA to secure favorable outcome.
Looks more and more that this is a part of Russiagate, or color revolution against Trump, however you want to call the effort: the
collusion between the intelligence heads of the Obama administration with British intelligence to oust President Trump.
The Russian Foreign Ministry is now openly pointing the possibility of a UK intelligence involvement. That sheds a very bad light
on EU vassals who without any questioning and with any proof immediately fell into line behind Theresa May.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry even said this was a tool used by the Europeans and the United States to try to get unity at a point
when they were completely disunified. And this is the old geopolitical game, that in order to create unity you create a war, and then
everybody has to fall into line before attacking Iran.
Compare with Ron Paul views on this incident: www.youtube.com
Notable quotes:
"... The UK foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, in a speech late on Wednesday waxed lyrical about how the Skripal episode represented a turning point in the west's approach to Russia, but his officials are aware that this mood can easily dissipate as other considerations, such as commerce, energy security or the Middle East come into play. ..."
"... The UK will try to push for further measures against Russia at the June meeting of the EU heads of state. If it is ambitious, it may may challenge German support for Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline from Russia that could put European energy demand at the mercy of Moscow. ..."
That does not mean the crisis will necessarily end there, or that the crisis is contained.
Russia, whose standing among the international community
is badly damaged, is determined to do go further to clear its name, or at least throw up enough chaff so that a chunk of western
public opinion doubts the British intelligence service's account of Skripal's poisoning. Moscow has already suggested a meeting on
Monday of the executive of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to have "an honest conversation" about
the poisoning.
The OPCW is studying samples – provided by the UK – of the novichok nerve agent allegedly used, but does not have the ability
to judge the identity of the person that
placed the agent by the door of Skripal's house . But the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is determined to put the UK
on the defensive and has already claimed that "if our western partners dodge the meeting then it will be further evidence that every
thing that is happened is a provocation".
Russia has also responded to the apparent recovery of Yulia Skripal, who was poisoned alongside her father. She may be able to
provide insights into how the poisoning occurred, or even reveal whether she knows of some other motive by some other non-state actor.
The British intelligence services will be debriefing her as soon as her health permits. It would clearly be a huge embarrassment
for the UK government if it emerged she believed the Russian state was not involved.
As it is, the UK government is aware that some allied leaders, despite the public show of solidarity, face skeptical voters at
home who are either against a confrontation with Vladimir Putin, or expect more convincing proof to be provided.
The UK foreign secretary, Boris Johnson,
in a speech late on Wednesday waxed lyrical about how the Skripal episode represented a turning point in the west's approach
to Russia, but his officials are aware that this mood can easily dissipate as other considerations, such as commerce, energy security
or the Middle East come into play.
The UK will try to push for further measures against Russia at the June meeting of the EU heads of state. If it is ambitious,
it may may challenge German support for Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline from Russia that could put European energy demand at the
mercy of Moscow.
China's rise has made the US fear the loss of its role as the sole superpower. And the
neoliberal elite fights back. That replays on a new level rift of the USSR and China in the
past.
... the plan to impose 25 per cent tariffs on $60bn of (as yet, unspecified) Chinese exports
to the US shows the aggression of Mr Trump's trade agenda. The proposed tariffs are just one of
several actions aimed at China's technology-related policies. These include a case against
China at the World Trade Organization and a plan to impose new restrictions on its investments
in US technology companies.
The objectives of these US actions are unclear. Is it merely to halt alleged misbehaviour,
such as forced transfers -- or outright theft -- of intellectual property? Or, as the labelling
of China as a "strategic competitor" suggests, is it to halt China's technological progress
altogether -- an aim that is unachievable and certainly non-negotiable. Mr Trump also
emphasised the need for China to slash its US bilateral trade surplus by $100bn. Indeed, his
rhetoric implies that trade should balance with each partner. This aim is, once again, neither
achievable nor negotiable.
...A still more pessimistic view is that trade discussions will break down in a cycle of
retaliation, perhaps as part of broader hostilities.
I am not a fan of LNG. If I was a Euro there is no way I would allow LNG in, whether
from Sabetta in Russia or from Sabine Pass in the US.
Being fan or no fan of specific type of energy hardly factors into economic reality of
Europe and coercing it into buying American LNG. If Europe continues to buy Russian gas --
that will be bad news for US. The US, however, may yet succeed in sabotaging Nord Stream II
and thus, in a long run, kill European industrial competitiveness thus opening European
market for US products. At least that is the plan. Here is a small taste of what is at
stake.
Turkish press is reporting that 'TurkStream' , the pipeline to bring natural gas from
Russia to Turkey, is now 80% complete and to be in operation by later this year. It is
expected to deliver close to 16 billion cubic meters per year from Gazprom to Turkish gas
distribution networks. A second phase scheduled for next year will reportedly deliver an
equal amount to Greece and other points in southern Europe.
This is in addition to the existing 'BlueStream' pipeline from Russia to Turkey,
operational since 2005, that also has a 16 billion cubic meter per year throughput.
Why the Western concern about NordStream pipeline but none about TurkStream? Are there no
sanction problems for the Swiss company working with GazProm? Plus I wonder if this is one of
the reasons why Russia has lately become paranoid regarding US Navy FON operations in the
Black Sea?
Why the Western concern about NordStream pipeline but none about TurkStream? Are there no
sanction problems for the Swiss company working with GazProm? Plus I wonder if this is one of
the reasons why Russia has lately become paranoid regarding US Navy FON operations in the
Black Sea?
The main concern has the name Sabetta--it is the port and a hub to a largest Liquid
Natural Gas operation, which also happened to be (in relative terms) next to Europe's LNG
ports. I usually don't do this but I apologize, here is a link to my blog's piece on
that:
LNG is precisely a commodity which is counted by US as a major component in possibly (and
most likely not very probable) US re-industrialization. For that, the US has to sell her LNG
to Europe. This implies removing Russian LNG from the EU market which dwarfs that of Turkey
and some South European nations. Germany, France, UK, Holland among others are the prize
here. Russian LNG must be verboten, in US mind, or at least pushed back. As per FON--it has
nothing to do with FON but has everything to do with:
1. Flag demonstration--that is presence and Fleet In Being.
2. Signals collection from Sevastopol, Novorossyisk and, in general, all Russia's Southern
Military District emitters.
"... When I read: "As X becomes increasingly aggressive, even reckless geopolitically," frankly Russia was not the first country that came to mind. ..."
Yves
here. I trust readers will be able to filter out the new Cold War assumptions in the piece to
focus on the price of Germany's plans. Does anyone have an informed take on how significant the
broader economic impact might be?
By Tim Daiss, an oil markets analyst, journalist and author working out of the
Asia-Pacific region for 12 years who has covered oil, energy markets and geopolitics for
Forbes, Platts, Interfax, NewsBase, Rigzone, and the UK-based Independent (newspaper) as well
as providing energy markets analysis for subscription newsletters. Originally published at
OilPrice
More problems are mounting for Russia's oil and gas sector. This time it's coming from
Germany, which until recently usually gave Russia's energy sector more lead way than the U.S.
or other allies.
But now it seems that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has also had enough. On Monday,
Bloomberg reported that Merkel's government is seeking to build a liquefied
natural gas (LNG) industry in Germany basically from scratch to reduce the nation's dependence
on supplies arriving by pipeline from Russia and Norway.
Merkel backs "all initiatives supporting further diversification of gas supply -- whether
from different regions or means of transporting gas," said German Economy and Energy Ministry
spokeswoman Beate Baron.
The move comes as natural gas resources from the UK and the Netherlands are depleting, and
Germany is forced to rely more on Russian gas. Merkel's newly formed coalition has a "coalition
contract" that among other policies sets out energy agenda including LNG for the next four
years, the Bloomberg reported added.
Germany, for its part, is Europe's largest gas consumer. In
2015, the country consumed 7.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas, according to
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. According to the German energy research
group, AG Energiebilanzen, imports account for about 90 percent of Germany's total natural gas
supply, while most imports come from three countries: Russia (40 percent of total imports in
2015), Norway (21 percent) and the Netherlands (29 percent).
Moreover, German companies are participating in Russia's controversial Nord Stream 2
pipeline, an expansion of an existing route for gas to flow from Russia to Europe under the
Baltic Sea. The U.S., Poland and others have recently condemned the pipeline as a threat to
European security.
As Russia becomes increasingly aggressive, even reckless geopolitically, the security threat
to not only the EU but to Germany is apparent, causing the country of some 83 million people to
do an abrupt energy policy about face.
Germany's LNG pivot also comes as a geopolitical storm between the U.K. and Russia
intensifies over an alleged Moscow-orchestrated nerve-agent attack on British soil against what the
BBC called a double spy and his daughter.
British Prime Minister Theresa May retaliated last week by expelling Russian diplomats and
seeking alternatives to Russian gas, including LNG produced at its new Arctic plant, the Yamal
LNG export project. Addressing the UN Security Council last week, the U.K.'s deputy UN
ambassador, Jonathan Allen, accused Russia of breaking its obligations under the Convention on
the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
The U.S. for its part also condemned the nerve agent attack. U.S. ambassador Nikki Haley
said that Washington stood in "absolute solidarity" with Britain, citing the "special
relationship" between the two countries and saying that Washington would "always be there" for
the UK.
Germany's Abrupt LNG Pivot
However, until recently many in Germany accused the U.S., notably President Trump, of using
U.S.-sourced LNG as a geopolitical weapon to challenge Russia's decades' old dominance of
European gas markets -- an accusation that played perfectly into the hands of Russian energy
companies and even Vladimir Putin.
When Trump singed fresh sanctions against Russia's energy sector in August, Uniper -- a
German utility and one of Europe's largest energy firms -- said the new sanctions were an
American economic move as much as a political one.
"The core reason (for the sanctions) is strategic economic interests, meaning the targeted
dominance of the US in energy markets," Uniper CEO Klaus Schaefer told journalists shortly
after Trump signed the sanctions bill. Uniper is one of five companies that have invested in
Nord Stream 2.
Brigitte Zypries, Germany's economy minister, claimed last year that the sanctions violated
international law and said that the EU should take action against the U.S. "Of course we don't
want a trade war. But it is important the European Commission now looks into countermeasures,"
she said. "The Americans can't punish German companies because they have business interests in
another country."
Cost Factors Could Impede Pivot
However, any Germany pivot to LNG away from Russian gas will come at a cost. Shipping LNG by
one of several suppliers, including Qatar, the U.S. or Angola to name a few, is simply more
expensive than Russian piped gas. While Russia already has an extensive pipeline network in
place, LNG is more expensive when transportation, liquefaction and regasification costs are
added.
Using a Henry Hub gas price of $2.85/MMBtu as a base, Russian energy giant Gazprom recently
estimated that adding processing and transportation costs, the price in Europe would reach
$6/MMBtu -- a steep markup.
Henry Hub gas prices are currently trading at $2.657/MMBtu. Over the last 52-week period
U.S. gas has traded between $2.64/MMBtu and $3.82/MMBtu.
Russian gas sells for around $5/MMBtu in European markets. Moreover, Russian gas exporter
Gazprom is also moving away from oil-indexation for gas prices to a European gas hub
indexation, which will allow additional price savings and unfortunately for Germany -- an
incentive to stick with Russian gas, even if it's geopolitically distasteful.
Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak
said yesterday that Russia is Europe's most flexibly and reliable source of energy that is
needed.
Its a long long way from a political announcement to an industrial reality. Also, the
quote:
Merkel backs "all initiatives supporting further diversification of gas supply" is
telling.
Germany does not want to be caught out in a Russia/US energy squeeze while its pursuing an
alternative energy path. Nor does Merkel want to overtly pick sides.
Plus if you will note, given the momentum of current German/Russian energy initiatives, I
rather doubt that this "announcement" will have a lot of traction in the near future.
The Oilprice site, although very informative is somewhat shrill from day to day
(everything is a BIG DEAL).
Yes, its a telling quote -- it can basically be paraphrased as 'if someone is willing to
pay for these facilities, we would be happy to hear that'. There are quite a few stalled
projects for LNG terminals in Europe -- but they are expensive and even the promise of cheap
US LNG won't unlock them so long as Russia can supply relatively cheap gas. If European
governments want more LNG terminals for security reasons then they'll have to pay for them.
Thats not likely to happen, there are far more pressing infrastructural needs.
Is anyone considering the possibility that the US's ability to deliver LNG may not exist
for long enough to pay the cost of building the infrastructure necessary to use it?
Is anyone factoring in the damage to our environment, including our fresh water when
calculating the cost of poking Russia in the eye?
At first glance, this whole play appears short-sighted, at least, probably foolish.
Of course the big oil companies have never gone unrewarded for their fealty to the whims
of the MIC, even when any objective analysis finds massive foolishness.
Dont worry, Novatek already delivered a shipment of LNG from the Yamal peninsular to the
UK.
I would bet that Nord Stream will not eliminate the need to export across the Ukraine.
Undersea pipelines dont have great capacity. But additional marginal pipeline capacity does
reduce the bargaining power of the Ukraine. Im sure LNG capacity does the same.
We're deep into our malinvestment phase where uneconomic industries are being sustained
with monetary policy to prop up an unsustainable status quo.
The question is whether the left can coordinate collective action before the right can
start WW3. It will be real events somewhere that cause real change: financialized capitalism
with its own hand on the money spigot of fiat money is, with reference to itself, a perpetual
motion machine.
It will either be a force of life, or thermodynamics that finally overthrow this machine.
The stresses for dramatic external political events are building everywhere.
However, this is where market capitalism excels. As long as there is enough money in the
hands of the average person (a major issue), the average person will install solar panels and
batteries and heat pumps and buy an EV and say "to hell with you" to the oil, gas, and coal
industries.
Less money is going to those average folks, but local EV is hopeful. Tons of money goes to
supporting facking, which in the absence of QE and the spigot of free money for
(mal)investors, would not be economical.
LNG ports to receive a fuel with what is approaching negative EROEI are pure
mal-investment.
MMT was used to incentivize net positive public goods by Mariner Eccles making the US the
richest nation in the world. We're now seeing the global financial cabal use the same tool to
despoil real wealth, monetizing it along with trust wherever it can find either. It is an
epic of short-termism that will ultimately destroy the money itself by liquidating the real
productive social and economic constellations that support it.
I read the statement as that Germany is looking for a replacement of its Dutch and
Norwegian gas sources. As Germany does not want to depend for 100% of its gas from Russia,
they do need to look for alternatives.
It is just smart policy not to depend from a single source, for whatever purpose.
Dutch and Norwegian gas reserves are in
long term decline , so its likely that Russian gas will become a higher proportion of
supply in the medium to longer term.
i) the cost of transport is very high and there is a linear relationship between distance
and transport costs
ii) both the client and the supplier would like stable long-term contracts to secure
investments and supply.
There is always interdependence if you want durable supply.
Constructing some LNG facilities, besides the cost factors mentioned above won't reduce
such interdependence by much given that Russia provides 40% of current consumption. Also,
Russia migth seek providing NG to fast growing asian markets. I think that Germany is trying
to diversify just because Norway, Netherlands, and its own production are declining. I also
think that this means that fracking gas in Europe is not seen as an alternative.
I wouldn't say that Germany will "pivot" from russian gas, that is giving too much weigth
to potential LNG supplies.
Another point is that if the issue is security, it would most likely be more cost
effective to build up a buffer in underground storage facilities than building new LNG
terminals.
I could be that Germany is buckling under the pressure of attacks as the US is threatening
to sanction European firms involved in the Russian/EU Nord Stream 2 project ( https://www.rt.com/business/421900-us-sanctions-nord-stream-companies/
) which if true, would mean that the EU would have to ask the permission of Washington in
dealings with any countries not to Washington's liking.
The Poles have already built a LNG gas delivery terminal so you would think that Germany
would just pipe it in from there unless Germany wanted to build their own terminal so that
they would not have to pay Poland any fees as Poland is one of the counties opposing Nord
Stream 2.
Poland has already received at least one LNP shipment from the US but the price of the
delivery is a state secret apparently.
The Russians could always turn around and sell their cheaper gas to China so no big loss
to them. Thing is, it will take a decade to build a fleet of tankers to carry the gas that
Germany needs annually as these ships would just be going back and forth like clockwork. Who
pays for that? Germany would also need years just to build the LNP port facility to receive
these shipments. I believe too that the US export terminal is in the Gulf so tough luck if a
hurricane shut down that terminal at any time. Remember, this winter the Russians had to ship
two tankers of gas to the US because of shortages so how reliable could a US supply be?
Add up the costs of building the port facility, a fleet of tankers and the infrastructure
to deal with it all, then top up with the gas not only being more expensive than the Russian
gas but also less reliable and the Germans will have to take a knife to their budget to pay
for it all. Trump would have a fit if it was their defense budget so that means the social
budget. Good luck with that. One last factor of which I have even less knowledge of is the US
gas supply. I believe that it comes from shale deposits aka fracking but I know that these
wells deplete rapidly so if true, would suggest that US gas as a supply source may be self
limiting over time. I don't think that the economics work out here for Germany somehow.
It's not a pivot. The only important thing is North Stream 2: if the US or the
transatlantic lobby manages to kill that, then there is a pivot. Otherwise, it's business as
usual.
So unless one wants to be ~90% dependent on russian gas, there has to be some alternatives
to keep the russians honest. Only realistic way is LNG. So Germany has to build the
infrastructure for it to have a credible bargaining position. The marketshare of russian gas
will increase over the next few years in any way.
Also, I would like to add that the German Press isn't treating this like some sort of
revelation.
As everywhere else, if a politician wants to get a little patriotic push on their side,
they hold a speech touting "energy independence". Germany is no different in that regard and
Merkel needs to appear a bit more nationalistic right now.
Current headlines are all about social issues like immigration, Facebook data breaches,
internal politics, etc. No one is obsessing about LNG facilities or things like Brexit.
There are major offshore gas fields in the Mediterranean -- on the coast of Cyprus and all
the way offshore from Syria to Egypt. Their exploitation is still largely pending resolution
of local crises (Turkey vs EU re Cyprus, Israel vs Palestine and Lebanon, in Syria because of
war). Once those fields come on line, the need for special-purpose ports to bring in LNG from
afar to Europe no longer makes much economic sense.
Besides, Algeria continues to provide gas (and oil) to the EU.
Germany is a major shareholder in the EPR reactor, but isn't building any
because its proven far too expensive, much more expensive than domestic renewables.
Its untrue to say that Germany buys a lot of French nuclear energy, imports from France are minor at a net
of around 4 terawatt hours a year, similar to the amount of wind energy Germany buys from
Denmark. Its dwarfed by the huge renewable sector in Germany which produces over 200 TWh per annum . Germany is
actually a net exporter of energy to France in most summers as the inland nuclear plants
often go off-line due to water shortages.
"Germany's LNG pivot also comes as a geopolitical storm between the U.K. and Russia
intensifies over an alleged Moscow-orchestrated nerve-agent attack on British soil against
what the BBC called a double spy and his daughter."
When one thinks about the geopolitical repercussions of this nerve gas attack on $$ for
USA LNG, the control of energy supplies to the EU by the USA and its middle east puppets, the
quickly identified fingerprint and emotionally charged finger pointing, a complex technical
topic to which the general public has general knowledge and therefore must rely on
"authorities", the high level of media attention for a relatively minor character, and the
ongoing attempts to vilify and isolate Russia -- one has to wonder if this is just another
CIA false flag event similar to Iraq WMDs and the Syrian chemical weapons attacks -- another
false flag that will eventually fall apart after it has served its purpose. Examined in the
light of past and ongoing CIA atrocities (Renditions and torture in Abu Ghraib and Gitmo,
droning, MKULTRA, Operation Mongoose, Phoenix Program, Iran-Contra, numerous assassinations
and coups -- just to name a few), it seems quite in line with what I would expect from this
criminal organization. Not that we can really know the truth at this time, but those who
dutifully believe the corporate media on this topic might want to open a skeptical eye. There
are likely cover stories within cover stories -- much like cover stories one finds in the
Wormwood documentary.
This news along with Trudeau's support for Kinder Morgan Canada's Trans Mountain oil/tar
sands pipeline expansion should make it clear that the Paris Accords were a cruel joke on
humanity. We will keep extracting every single last drop of recoverable oil until we run out
of energy to continue or we nuke ourselves.
So, it's easy enough for Germany to pivot away from gas *if* they switch to heating with
electricity. However, Merkel refuses to push this. Because Merkel.
The Senators' argument is that dependence on Russian gas undermines European security.
Whereas to the Russians, it is obvious that the Americans wish to replace cheap Rusian
piped gas with expensive liquefied American gas, which is a bi-product of fracking for oil
and currently in surplus. Some frackers in Canada are even having to pay someone to take
their gas.
Surprisingly, no one has yet pointed out that Russia could deliver Novichok to the whole
of Europe via Nordstream 2.
"... This is a European energy issue. From the start. The US either wants to be the middle-man or cut Russia off from it entirely. No other options have been tabled or would be acceptable to Washington. Remember the Trump quote "Why don't we just take their oil and gas?" ..."
"... Look at the opposition gaining speed against Nord Stream II. And also look, the UK and all of Europe may be in for some cold summers and winters now, it's a trend they cannot ignore as it gets colder for longer periods, this trend isn't relaxing with the stratosphere doing some flips and turns and sending "The Beast From The East" towards the once Great Britain. ..."
The Skripal anti-Russia hysteria effort is just another step in the US/CIA campaign to
interfere with the Russian hosting of the World Cup -- the next step will be to attempt to
have the qualifying European countries boycott the event ... remember, to them, every Russian
loss is an American win.
However, I will go on record to predict that the US will have its Ukrainian neo-Nazi
vassals mount a major attack on the Donbass within week of the beginning of the World Cup
tournament.
I agree the World Cup is on the agenda, but this effort is multi-pronged, like Octi-putin,
they will want to boycott it and you will see all sorts of FIFA related articles in the
coming months, corruption and so on. It's all predictable.
This is a European energy issue. From the start. The US either wants to be the
middle-man or cut Russia off from it entirely. No other options have been tabled or would be
acceptable to Washington. Remember the Trump quote "Why don't we just take their oil and
gas?"
Look at the opposition gaining speed against Nord Stream II. And also look, the UK and
all of Europe may be in for some cold summers and winters now, it's a trend they cannot
ignore as it gets colder for longer periods, this trend isn't relaxing with the stratosphere
doing some flips and turns and sending "The Beast From The East" towards the once Great
Britain.
It is about bankrupting Russia and also trying to get European
nations to turn the Russian gas tap off, and so Europe will have to resort
to buying gas through Western controlled natural gas resources, liquid gas
shipments, and a proposed Qatar-Turkey pipeline through Syria. Once most
Western people discover the actual history of our wars and what ruthless,
unconscionable bastards our Western power brokers actually are, they will
automatically want to support Russia.
This is the May-Johnson excuse for not going through with Brexit. Now they
will say they need their partner in the EU to protect them. Good luck with
that one.
I wouldn't write NATO off just yet. Rothschild bought Naftogaz which has an
office in Egypt. Igor Kolomoisky has some interesting ties also the
temporary occupation of Crimea by Russia. And who is Genie Energy?
"... Another background to the British provocation might be the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Construction is to start now and once it is finished Ukraine can´t blackmail Europe anymore by holding up gas delivery. Poland, the Baltics, the US and of course Ukraine are violently opposed to Nord Stream 2. ..."
...The British noise about the alleged nerve gas agent is then nothing more but another
attempt to force Washingtons´s hand to increase hostility towards Russia.
Interestingly enough today Germany´s defense minister who is a close confident of
Merkel echoed the outrage about the alleged nerve gas attack but called for a "UN
investigation". That is she didn´t endorse the British claim.
Another background to the British provocation might be the Nord Stream gas pipeline from
Russia to Germany. Construction is to start now and once it is finished Ukraine can´t
blackmail Europe anymore by holding up gas delivery. Poland, the Baltics, the US and of
course Ukraine are violently opposed to Nord Stream 2.
Sanctions on Russia are being ignored. China is investing its US Trillions. Under US imposed
sanctions, ExxonMobil withdrew and China said "Thank You" and took the partnership.
Chinese state-controlled Huarong Asset Management has bought a 36.2 percent stake in the unit
of CEFC China Energy through which CEFC is acquiring a $9.1 billion stake in Russian oil
giant Rosneft.
According to CEFC filings seen by Reuters, Huarong has bought the stake in CEFC in two
tranches, one in December and one in February. Huarong is controlled by China's Ministry of
Finance.
In September, CEFC Energy announced plans to acquire 14.16 percent of Rosneft shares from
Glencore and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA).
"The final structure of Rosneft's shareholders has been formed," Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin
told Rossiya 24 television.
As part of a long-term agreement, Rosneft and CEFC Energy inked a deal on crude oil
deliveries in 2017. According to the agreement, the Russian oil major will supply CEFC with
60.8 million tons of oil annually until 2023.
The agreement covers the development of exploration and production projects in Siberia.
The two companies plan to cooperate in refining, petrochemicals and crude trading.
The Ukrainian authorities have started the seizure of assets belonging to the Russian gas
giant Gazprom, citing its alleged non-compliance with the decision of the Stockholm arbitration
court. "Under the current circumstances, the Ukrainian cabinet initiates action aimed at
recovering [a] penalty from Gazprom," the Ukrainian government's press service said in a
statement published on its official website. It also claimed that the move was conducted in
compliance with the decision of the Stockholm court and involves collecting a fine from the
Russian company over its alleged violation of Ukrainian anti-monopoly legislation. Read more
Ukraine is
overpaying for European gas & wants Russia to foot the bill
The Swedish arbitration body initially ruled on the three-year dispute between Gazprom and
the Ukrainian energy company, Naftogaz, back in December 2017. The policy of the court prevents
it from even acknowledging that it's mediating a case, which makes it impossible to obtain its
own account of the final ruling. Both energy companies, which have opposing takes on the
outcome, initially claimed victory in the case.
In late February, the same court ordered Gazprom to compensate Naftogaz $4.6 billion for
what the latter sees as lost profit from the transit of Russian gas to Europe.
The legal battle between the two energy companies in the Arbitration Institute of the
Stockholm Chamber of Commerce had rumbled on since June 2014. Gazprom's claims related to fines
for insufficient withdrawal and use of gas by the Ukrainian side, in accordance with a
'take-or-pay' rule. The Russian gas giant also demanded payment of a debt for gas
delivered to Ukraine between May and June 2014.
Naftogaz pushed for a retroactive change in the price of gas, the reimbursement of
overpayments and the repeal of a ban on reselling Russian gas. The court eventually satisfied
some of the Ukrainian company's demands, in particular by setting a minimum amount of gas that
Naftogaz must buy from Gazprom annually (from 2018) at a volume that was 10 times lower than in
the original contract. At the same time, it also obliged Gazprom to pay for the transit of the
Russian gas through the Ukrainian territory between 2009 and 2017 even though the gas was not,
in fact, transited over that period.
The Head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, then called the court's decision "asymmetric"
and "very politically motivated." The court justified its decision by referring to a
difficult economic situation in Ukraine.
"... Bullshit. The Ukrainians have been on a pay before delivery tariff from Russia for years. They have chosen war over trade. They currently prefer to spend what income they get that survives oligarch looting on trying to kill the East Ukrainians (currenly 6.9% of GDP). ..."
Sat, 03/03/2018 - 21:13 Last week, Russia's state-run gas giant and quasi-monopolist when it
comes to European natgas supplies, Gazprom, announced it would not restart shipments of natural
gas to Ukraine's Naftogaz starting March 1 after the two sides failed to reach an agreement,
Gazprom deputy chairman, Alexander Medvedev, told journalists.
Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine were supposed to restart on Thursday following a foreign
court ruling aimed at ending years of disputes between Kiev and Moscow, including two halts to
Russian gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. But Gazprom unexpectedly refused to resume
deliveries, returning the prepayment for supplies made by Kiev, claiming amendments to a
contract had not been completed.
The decision came as the sides reportedly failed to extend a supplemental agreement to the
current gas contract, RT
reported.
"So far, the supplemental agreement to the operating contract with Naftogaz has not been
approved, and that is a compulsory condition for launching the shipments," Medvedev said. "So,
we have to recover the amount paid by the company in full. And it is obvious that the shipments
in March won't start."
In response, Ukraine's state monopoly said that Gazprom had failed to deliver prepaid gas.
Naftogaz is reportedly planning to claim damages for supply failure from the Russian energy
major.
And while the long-running dispute may, but likely won't, be resolved in court, Ukraine has
suddenly found itself without heat and on Friday urged schools to close and factories to cut
production, while residents shivered as the country strained to save on gas supplies.
The decision coincided with freezing temperatures all over Ukraine, and the government
called on Friday for measures to reduce consumption.
" Starting today, we recommended ... to stop the work of kindergartens, schools and
universities ," Ukraine energy minister Igor
Nasalyk told lawmakers , while urging Ukrainian companies to adjust their operations to
save gas, while power companies were ordered to switch to fuel oil where possible.
Nasalyk said these savings measures would be in effect until Tuesday, when temperatures are
expected to rise.
* * *
Meanwhile, on Friday, Gazprom director Alexei Miller said that the company would immediately
turn to the Stockholm arbitration court to break its contract with the Ukrainian operator
Naftogaz, Russian news agencies reported. A ruling by the same court last year was meant to
halt disputes over gas prices and shipments, which had often been a proxy for political
disputes between Moscow and Kiev. The court set a price and ordered Kiev to resume purchases it
had cancelled following the breakout in "proxy" violence between the two nations in 2014.
Also on Friday, Naftogaz said that Gazprom had not only refused to resume deliveries meant
for it, but lowered the pressure in gas pipelines by 20 percent and minimized sales to other
customers. In a statement, Naftogaz said that Gazprom was trying to portray Ukraine in a
negative light and suggest that it was willing either to let its own population freeze or make
it out to be "an unreliable transit company that takes the gas away" from European
countries.
In response,
Reuters reported today that Gazprom said there had so far been no impact on supplies
through its pipelines to Europe, despite the sharp escalation in tensions with the key transit
nation.
Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak told European Commission Vice President Maros
Sefcofic in a phone conversation that gas transit would not be at risk until Gazprom and
Naftogaz fully terminated their agreement.
"Minister Novak assured that the gas transit from Russia to Europe is under no threat. The
transit remains as reliable as in the past," the ministry said.
* * *
Kiev and Moscow have a history of clashing over prices and obligations under contracts for
the delivery of Russian gas to Ukraine as well as transit to Europe. The standoff in the winter
of 2006 triggered supply disruptions, with Russia accusing Ukraine of stealing gas intended for
the European market.
The gas giants are currently involved in a long-standing litigation over the terms of the
current delivery contract. Ukraine's lawyers are struggling for annulment of the so-called
take-or-pay provision that obliges Kiev to purchase a minimum annual quantity of gas. Earlier
this week, Naftogaz claimed it had won a $2.56 billion victory in another round of its legal
battle with Gazprom.
Karma can be a bitch Ukraine. Still, I'm sure your friends in Washington will immediately
provide you with an endless supply of free LNG? Call Vicky.
Incidentally, to the author, your map is incorrect (i'm sure that was just an error like
Goolag's deletion of Themtube sites). Crimea is no longer a part of Ukraine after 95%+ of its
population excercised their right to self-determination after the Maidan coup.
Ukraine's already connected to Poland's LNG port. And by the way, days at sea for a ship
with Qatari LNG is the same as a saudi tanker hauling oil to the U.S.
Ukraine is in a total meltdown, forget about Venezuela which at least has energy stores.
Ukraine has to import most of its energy. Donbass has all the coal. Putin is a genius, he is
starving Ukraine of energy. There will be mass unrest in the country. Expect a government
friendly to Russia to come back into play. The only thing that can prevent this is if Europe
and the USA are willing to pay for Ukraine's energy needs.
Where otherwise will Ukraine get
the hard currency. Well for a while it will get it by selling off its farmland and its women.
In ww2 you could buy a woman with a package of pantyhose, an MRE, or a pack of cigarettes.
Now you will be able to buy them again the same way and with a lump of coal.
"Ukraine Freezes After Russia Halts Gas Deliveries"
Bullshit. The Ukrainians have been on a pay before delivery tariff from Russia for years.
They have chosen war over trade. They currently prefer to spend what income they get that
survives oligarch looting on trying to kill the East Ukrainians (currenly 6.9% of GDP).
On
March 1, Ukraine closed all schools, colleges and universities to conserve energy. Following
a Stockholm arbitration court decision on March 1, Gazprom has started the process of
cancelling the contracts for supply of gas to and through Ukraine. They are at liberty to
purchase it at market rates ($600 per 100 cubic metersversus the subsidised $300 from Russia)
from the Europeans.
Joe Biden's son, Hunter, was hired by a Ukraine company, Burisma Holdings Limited,
promoting energy independence from Moscow. So hows it goin Hunter??
Too busy fooling around with his late brother's widow. No time for Ukraine. Murica can help
fund some gas, if they can throw away a couple billion for the coup, c'mon Guys, Porky is
yoar Bro.
Most likely he was fooling around with her before his brother died. Some of his nieces and
nephews may be his kids. The Bidens are a microcosm of the perverse behavior in DC.
"Kathleen Biden accused estranged husband Hunter of reckless spending on 'drugs,
prostitutes, and an $80,000 diamond' in divorce docs - days before his affair with widowed
sister-in-law Hallie was revealed"
" Kathleen claims Hunter spends money on 'drugs, alcohol, prostitutes, strip clubs and
gifts for women with whom he had sexual relations' in her new motion "
I live in Minneapolis. The weather here isn't too different from much of Ukraine. For
early March we're having a very warm day, nearly 50 F. But next week we get back to more
seasonal highs around freezing, with maybe 6" of slushy snow on Monday.
I really like it when my heat works. I do have a wood-burning fireplace but if I have to use it for heat we've got a lot of
problems all at once. Ukraine is a great example of what always happens when Nazis get in charge. Everything
goes to hell in a handbasket, quickly.
The fools just might do that to keep the riots out of the government buildings in Kiev.
Russia doesn't want the basket case either so who knows what the war would look like. Kiev is
totally screwed either way this goes.
No Russia knows that any dealings with Kiev or ukr companies are disastrous. Russia acts
very carefully within the law. Hence immediate return of first gas payement since 2014, so
not legally bound. Hence Gasprom requiring a signed contract under mutually agreed conditions
which they did not get.
Already Ukraine is say there is a 20 percent drop off in pressure on transit gas thru.
ukr. Russia says not, it is gas pressure as usual.
Looks like Ukraine is stealing 20percent of transit gas immediately.
The Ukrainian economy is in a catastrophic state after four years of "euro-reforms," said
Viktor Medvedchuk, head of the public movement "Ukrainian Choice – People's
Right." "At the end of 2013. Ukraine's state and publicly guaranteed debt was 40% of GDP, and
by the end of 2017 it had more than doubled, exceeding 80% of GDP. In 2013, Ukraine's GDP per
capita was more than $ 4,075, and in 2016 decreased to $ 2221.
The average monthly salary in 2017 as a whole for the country was $ 267 (in 2013 it exceeded
$ 408), pensions are also 2.3 times lower than before the euro reform. Today, it is slightly
more than $ 48, while in 2013 it was almost $ 112, " Medvedchuk said.
@4 "For the life of me I cannot figure why Americans want a war/conflict with Russia."
Ever since US Crude Oil peaked its production in 1970, the US has known that at some point
the oil majors would have their profitability damaged, "assets" downgraded, and borrowing
capacity destroyed. At this point their shares would become worthless and they would become
bankrupt. The contagion from this would spread to transport businesses, plastics manufacture,
herbicides and pesticide production and a total collapse of Industrial Civilisation.
In anticipation of increasing Crude Oil imports, Nixon stopped the convertibility of
Dollars into Gold, thus making the Dollar entirely fiat, allowing them to print as much of
the currency as they needed.
They also began a system of obscuring oil production data, involving the DoE's EIA and the
OECD's IEA, by inventing an ever-increasing category of Undiscovered Oilfields in their
predictions, and combining Crude Oil and Condensate (from gas fields) into one category (C+C)
as if they were the same thing. As well the support of the ethanol-from-corn industry began,
even though it was uneconomic. The Global Warming problem had to be debunked, despite its
sound scientific basis. Energy-intensive manufacturing work was off-shored to cheap
labour+energy countries, and Just-in-Time delivery systems were honed.
In 2004 the price of Crude Oil rose from $28 /barrel up to $143 /b in mid-2008. This
demonstrated that there is a limit to how much business can pay for oil (around $100 /b).
Fracking became marginally economic at these prices, but the frackers never made a profit as
over-production meant prices fell to about $60 /b. The Government encourages this destructive
industry despite the fact it doesn't make any money, because the alternative is the end of
Industrial Civilisation.
Eventually though, there must come a time when there is not enough oil to power all the
cars and trucks, bulldozers, farm tractors, airplanes and ships, as well as manufacture all
the wind turbines and solar panels and electric vehicles, as well as the upgraded
transmission grid. At that point, the game will be up, and it will be time for WW3. So we
need to line up some really big enemies, and develop lots of reasons to hate them.
Thus you see the demonisation of Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela for reasons that don't
make sense from a normal perspective.
The Polish leadership intends to implement a project of its own with the Baltic Pipe gas
pipeline - in face of the "Nord Stream - 2". This is reported by the German newspaper
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung .
The Polish party "Law and Justice" decided to revive the Baltic Pipe project and connect to the
Norwegian gas network. According to press releases, at the end of last year the Polish state
oil and gas company PGNiG reserved the capacity of the gas pipeline for 15 years, at a cost of
two billion dollars. It is assumed that the Polish project with an annual capacity of 10
billion cubic meters per year will begin to function in 2022, but the final decision on this
project will be taken later in 2018.
Poland actively opposes the construction of the Russian "Nord Stream - 2". Earlier, the Polish
Prime Minister called on the US leadership to extend American sanctions for the implementation
of this project. In addition, he said that European companies involved in the construction of
the gas pipeline should be fined.
Germany has rebuffed such statements, stating that the project guarantees energy security for
Europe.
Nord Stream -2 is a project worth 9.5 billion euros, which involves the construction of two
lines of pipeline across the Baltic Sea from the coast of Russia to Germany. The total capacity
will be 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
F Y I :> Putin prefers Aramco to Trump's sword dance
Hardly 10 months after honoring the visiting US president, the Saudis are open to a
Russian-Chinese consortium investing in the upcoming Aramco IPO
By M.K. BHADRAKUMAR
FEBRUARY 16, 2018
[extract]
In the slideshow that is Middle Eastern politics, the series of still images seldom add up
to make an enduring narrative. And the probability is high that when an indelible image
appears, it might go unnoticed -- such as Russia and Saudi Arabia wrapping up huge energy
deals on Wednesday underscoring a new narrative in regional and international security.
The ebb and flow of events in Syria -- Turkey's campaign in Afrin and its threat to
administer an "Ottoman slap" to the United States, and the shooting down of an Israeli F-16
jet -- hogged the attention. But something of far greater importance was unfolding in Riyadh,
as Saudi and Russian officials met to seal major deals marking a historic challenge to the US
dominance in the Persian Gulf region.
The big news is the Russian offer to the Saudi authorities to invest directly in the
upcoming Aramco initial public offering -- and the Saudis acknowledging the offer. Even
bigger news, surely, is that Moscow is putting together a Russian-Chinese consortium of joint
investment funds plus several major Russian banks to be part of the Aramco IPO.
Chinese state oil companies were interested in becoming cornerstone investors in the IPO,
but the participation of a Russia-China joint investment fund takes matters to an entirely
different realm. Clearly, the Chinese side is willing to hand over tens of billions of
dollars.
Yet the Aramco IPO was a prime motive for US President Donald Trump to choose Saudi Arabia
for his first foreign trip. The Saudi hosts extended the ultimate honor to Trump -- a
ceremonial sword dance outside the Murabba Palace in Riyadh. Hardly 10 months later, they are
open to a Russian-Chinese consortium investing in the Aramco IPO.
Riyadh plans to sell 5% of Saudi Aramco in what is billed as the largest IPO in world
history. In the Saudi estimation, Aramco is worth US$2 trillion; a 5% stake sale could fetch
as much as $100 billion. The IPO is a crucial segment of Vision 2030, Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammad bin Salman's ambitious plan to diversify the kingdom's economy.
A production sharing agreement (PSA) between Royal Dutch Shell and Ukraine's Nadra Yuzivska
for the development of Yuzivske shale gas deposits located in Ukraine's Kharkiv and Donetsk
regions was signed in Davos on 24 January 2013 through the mediation of Ukrainian president
Viktor Yanukovych and Netherlands prime minister Mark Rutte. The agreement was inked by
Ukraine's energy and coal industry minister Eduard Stavitsky and Royal Dutch Shell CEO Peter
Voser.
Prior to the signing ceremony Yanukovych told journalists that Ukraine would benefit from
the agreement since it would allow attracting investments, which Ukraine could use to increase
the domestic natural gas production thus creating jobs, raising the level of the country's
economy as well as increasing the budget revenues and providing funds for social needs.
On 23 January Ukraine's cabinet of ministers approved a draft PSA between Shell Exploration
and Production Ukraine Investments B.V. and Nadra Yuzivska for Yuzivske shale gas field
(7,886m2 acreage) development.
Yuzivske field prognostic resources are estimated at 2-4trln m3 of gas, which can be a viable
alternative for costly natural gas volumes Ukraine imports form Russia. In the meanwhile US
Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates Ukraine's shale gas potential at 1.2trln m3 in this
way making the country's shale gas reserves the 4th largest in Europe after Poland, France and
Norway. Totally consuming some 60bn m3 of natural gas annually, Ukraine has to import 40bn m3
of natural gas from Russia priced $430 per 1,000 m3 based on the terms of agreements inked in
2009.
Ukraine's prime minister Mykola Azarov stated earlier that Yuzivske field commercial
development over the span of a decade could give Ukraine an additional 8-10bn m3 of gas
annually.
As Eduard Stavitsky put it in Davos, Ukraine could possibly meet its domestic natural gas
demand in full in about 5 years of shale gas production cooperation with Shell. "According to
Shell's optimistic scenario about 20bn m3 of gas could be extracted annually; according to the
pessimistic one, at the very least 7-8bn m3. If the top forecasts were fulfilled, we would
tackle the gas shortfall problem in Ukraine or might even go into surplus", Stavitsky was
quoted as saying. He stated earlier that Shell saw investments under the deal of at least $10bn
under the most likely scenario and possibly as much as $50bn.
OILMARKET Info
In May 2012 Shell was chosen the successful bidder for 7,800km2 Yuzivske acreage (Kharkiv and
Donetsk regions, Ukraine) development with projected reserves estimated at 4.054trln m3 of gas
of various categories. The project calls for raising at least $20mn (UAH1.6bn) in investments
for the geological study phase, and $3.75bn (UAH30bn) for the industrial production phase. The
agreement envisages stage-by-stage exploration, development and hydrocarbons production. Both
companies (Shell and Nadro Yuzivske) will hold a 50% participation stake, with Shell chosen the
project operator responsible for carrying out works under the terms of agreement.
According to Shell press service, the mentioned PSA was signed for 50 years period. The
initial geological study phase at Yuzivske field implies 2D and 3D seismics as well as 15 well
drilling, which is expected to enable effective exploration and assessments of hydrocarbon
deposits potential especially that of natural gas trapped in compacted sandstone. Yuzivske
field development will be implemented in line with the highest international HSE standards. In
this way Shell is to carry out comprehensive possible environmental, social and public health
impact assessment of the project prior to launch.
2018-01-29 Chatham House Events – Iraqi Oil Minister confident that an oil export
capacity of five million barrels per day will be realized by the end of 2018 – a
"landmark in the oil industry"
Current Iraqi oil reserves of 153 billion barrels due to reach
175 billion in the coming years, says oil minister Luaibi at Annual MENA (Middle East &
North Africa) Energy conference
Iraq's oil minister Luaibi said the country seeks to ramp up refining capacity and reduce
imports of refined products :"I am determined that Iraq will become a product exporter
instead of product importer".
"... "The top American diplomat said his country is ready to help Poland continue to diversify its fuel supplies, including through the sale of U.S. liquefied natural gas, to reduce its dependence on Russia" ..."
Tillerson apes Hillary Clinton PR lines on Russia:
WARSAW (Reuters) - The United States sees the planned Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between
Russia and Germany as a threat to Europe's energy security, U.S. Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson said on Saturday.
The rest of the Reuters article is garbage, so I'm not bothering with a link. . . Bloomberg
seems to spell out the larger rationale, at least:
"The top American diplomat said his country is ready to help Poland continue to diversify its
fuel supplies, including through the sale of U.S. liquefied natural gas, to reduce its
dependence on Russia"
Notice also that Secretary of Defense Mattis says that the US military is now focused on
"Great Power Conflicts" - so what is this, right back to the Hillary Clinton gameplan? At
least, Trump is unlikely to get any international support for reckless military actions, so
that's one good thing about him over Clinton.
LNG tanker Gaselys was scheduled to arrive in Boston Saturday. Vessel reversed course to
Spain after almost 21 days en route
... ... ...
While unusual, it's not unheard of for LNG cargoes that aren't tied into a contract with
fixed destination to change course en route as cargo owners seek the highest price and the best
market. Companies with access to wide global supplies can also swap shipments between regions.
What's more, the tanker may still make it to Boston with a delay, as was the case with
deliveries earlier this month, according to Kpler SAS, a cargo-tracking company.
"We have still not canceled the Everett port call for Gaselys," Madeleine Overgaard, an LNG
market analyst at Kpler, said by email. "Her course is currently not very different from the
average delivery at Everett in 2017, she is probably just diverting to delay arrival."
Engie SA's North American unit bought the spot cargo for delivery to the U.S. from
Malaysia's Petroliam Nasional Bhd. to supplement its contracted volumes from Trinidad and
Tobago into its Everett terminal near Boston, it said last week. Engie declined to comment on
the tanker's movement on Friday.
The Yamal LNG project, co-owned by Russia's Novatek PJSC, Total SA, China Natural Petroleum
Corp. and China's Silk Road Fund, started production in December despite U.S. financial
sanctions imposed in 2014 because of Russia's involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. It plans
to deliver 14 spot cargoes by April, when long-term contracts kick in.
With the opening of the new ESPO oil pipeline connecting Siberia to China doubling the
amount of oil China can import to 600,000 barrels per day we'll see those numbers continue to
accelerate.
And that's the key. Remember, the massive $400 billion gas deal China made with Gazprom in
2014 hasn't begun delivering gas. The first Power of Siberia pipeline isn't due to be completed
until 2019. The second Power of Siberia pipeline is on the table after this one.
And the two countries just agreed to a third pipeline to bring gas in from Russia's far east
last month.
So, despite back-biting from western media about the profitability of these projects, they
are going forward and the two countries continue to strengthen fundamental ties to one
another.
... ... ...
The important takeaway is that China has created the first unassailable and above-ground
challenge to the petro-dollar oil trade. To break the world's use of the dollar as the sole
settlement currency for oil required the right contract issued by a country the U.S. can't
immediately invade and conduct a regime change operation in – like in Iraq and Libya.
Russia wins here because now there is a path for its Urals grade to become an international
benchmark like WTI and Brent. And since Gazprom prefers to price its long-term gas contracts
based on underlying oil prices rather than the more volatile natural gas price, this is also a
win in the long run for them.
Gold convertibility is a means to deepen China's sovereign debt markets by making it less
risky to hold Chinese bonds. The lack of true yuan convertibility is the big impediment to
people holding them. So, gold convertibility creates a viable exit route.
Bob, when you control 40% of the World's Oil & Gas Reserves and can turn the tap on
and off then you can hardly be considered POOR, especially when you make up 20% of the
world's Land Mass ( am also thinking Fresh Water ).
Vichy DC's Sanctions on Russia are in Essence, Sanctions on Exxon & the Majors (who
soon won't be Majors at this rate ) and the EUROPEAN UNION.
The vice tightens inexorably and US foreign policy thrashes about in response to the
pressure. What will the parasitic Jewish overlords do to save their declining host?
According to one source out of the Far East, China's Yuan denominated oil contract is set to
go live for trading on Jan. 18.
While not an official date announced from government sources, according to an anonymous
member of the Futures market where the new oil contract will trade, this is the expected date
for Beijing to begin its latest challenge to the long-standing Petrodollar system.
According to the Shanghai-based news portal Jiemian, which cited an unidentified person from
a futures company, trading is expected to start Jan. 18.
Multiple rounds of testing have been carried out and all listing requirements met. The State
Council, China's cabinet, was said to have given its approval in December,
one of the final regulatory hurdles. The push for oil futures gained impetus in 2017 when
China surpassed the U.S. as the world's biggest crude importer. -
Zerohedge
While the Chinese markets are not expected to immediately take dominion over the
West's Brent and WTI oil markets, several countries which include Venezuela, Russia, Qatar,
Pakistan, and perhaps even Iran appear ready to transition away from dollar based oil trade.
Additionally, many more nations will likely be willing to dip their toes into this market as it
proves itself to be a viable alternative to dollar hegemony, and as protection from foreign
policy threats from the U.S. which often uses the dollar as leverage in economic sanctions.
Are companies which produce it profitable or they survive by generating a parallel stream
of junk bonds and evergreen loans?
Most of them are also shale oil producers and might well depend on revenue from shale oil
to produce gas. Shale oil proved to unsustainable at prices below, say $65-$75 per barrel or
even higher, excluding few "sweet spots". Also a lot of liquids the shale well produce are
"subprime oil" that refiners shun.
They are not only much lighter but also they have fewer hydrocarbons necessary for
producing kerosene and diesel fuel. Mixing it with heavy oil proved to be double edged sword
and still inferior to "natural" oil. So right now the USA imports "quality" oil and sells its
own" subprime oil" at discount to refineries that are capable of dealing with such a mix.
Say, buying a barrel for $60 and selling a barrel of "subprime oil" at $30.
And without revenue from oil and liquids it can well be that natural gas production might
be uneconomical.
I wonder what percentage of the total US oil production now is subprime oil.
Modern multistage shale well now cost around $7-10 million. And that's only beginning as
its exploitation also costs money (fuel, maintenance, pumping back highly salinated and often
toxic water the well produces, etc). So neither oil nor gas from such wells can be very
cheap.
Generally such a well is highly productive only the first couple of years. After that you
need to drill more.
Also there is a damage to environment including such dangerous thing as pollution of
drinking water in the area,
From what I can tell, in Europe there was a policy of encouraging LNG terminals in order
to provide leverage against Russian supply. But there seems to have been a significant
slowdown in construction – quite simply, LNG is too expensive relative to Russian and
domestic (Norwegian, Dutch, UK, Mediteranean) supplies. It makes much more sense for Europe
to broaden out its pipeline network. So I think the only appetite for US LNG comes from the
more anti-Russian eastern European countries such as Poland, which hates dependency on
Russian gas.
Poland would suffer without revenue from pipelines that transport Russian natural gas to
Western Europe. That's why they adamantly oppose North Stream II.
Not as much as Ukraine, for which it might mean the economic collapse, but still.
"... By Wolf Richter, a San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and author, with extensive international work experience. Originally published at Wolf Street ..."
"... Exports to Mexico via pipeline have been rising for years as more pipelines have entered service and as Mexican power generators are switching from burning oil that could be sold in the global markets to burning cheap US natural gas. The US imports no natural gas from Mexico. ..."
"... This is just the Sabine Pass export terminal. In addition, there are five other LNG export terminals under construction, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), with a combined capacity of 7.5 Bcf/d. This brings total LNG export capacity to over 11 Bcf/d over the next few years and will make the US the third largest LNG exporter globally, behind Australia and Qatar. ..."
"... According to the Institute of Energy Research, global LNG demand is currently around 37 Bcf per day. This is expected to grow substantially as China is shifting part of its power generation capacity from coal to natural gas. And US LNG exports to China have surged from nothing two years ago to 25.6 billion cubic feet in October (for the month, not per day): ..."
"... US natural gas production has been booming since 2009 as fracking in prolific shale plays took off, and the price has collapsed – it currently is below $3 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at the NYMEX, despite tthe majestic cold wave that is gripping a big part of the country. ..."
"... This caused some immense price differences between the US market -- where a gas "glut" crushed prices, pushing them from time to time even below $2/mmBtu -- and, for example, the Japanese LNG import market, with prices that were in the $16-$17/mmBtu range in 2013 and 2014. Even the average spot price contracted in November 2017, the most recent data made available by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry , was $9/mmBtu. US LNG exporters hope to arbitrage these price differentials. ..."
"... Meanwhile, US producers are hoping that this overseas demand will mop up the glut in the US and allow them to finally boost prices, including the prices LNG exporters pay. But funding continues pouring into the oil and gas sector to pump up production, and prices have remained low, and drillers continue to bleed. ..."
"... Poland may have one built but think about this – the Ukraine may be happy to pay for American coal which is twice as expensive as what they could buy from the Donbass regions but will Europe be happy to pay double or more for LNG from the US just to spite the Russians? ..."
By Wolf Richter, a San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and
author, with extensive international work experience. Originally published at
Wolf Street
Even China is Buying U.S. LNG
In 2017, the US became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time. It started small in
February, when the US exported 1 billion cubic feet more than it imported. By October, the last
month for which data from the Energy Department's EIA is available, net exports surged to 45
billion cubic feet. For the first 10 months of 2017, the US exported 86 billion cubic feet more
than it imported. And this is just the beginning.
Exports to Mexico via pipeline have been rising for years as more pipelines have entered
service and as Mexican power generators are switching from burning oil that could be sold in
the global markets to burning cheap US natural gas. The US imports no natural gas from
Mexico.
Imports from and exports to Canada have both declined since 2007, with the US continuing to
import more natural gas from Canada than it exports to Canada.
What is new is the surging export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by sea to other parts of
the world.
This chart shows net imports (imports minus exports) of US natural gas. Negative "net
imports" (red) mean that the US exports more than it imports:
The first major LNG export terminal in the Lower 48 – Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass
terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana – began commercial deliveries in early 2016 when
the liquefaction unit "Train 1" entered service. Trains 2 and 3 followed. The three trains have
a capacity of just over 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). In October 2017, the company
announced that Train 4, with a capacity of 0.7 Bcf/d, was substantially completed and is likely
to begin commercial deliveries in March 2018. Train 5 is under construction and is expected to
be completed in August 2019. The company is now lining up contracts and financing for Train 6.
All six trains combined will have a capacity of 4.2 Bcf/d.
This is just the Sabine Pass export terminal. In addition, there are five other LNG export
terminals under construction, according to the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), with a combined capacity of 7.5 Bcf/d. This brings
total LNG export capacity to over 11 Bcf/d over the next few years and will make the US the
third largest LNG exporter globally, behind Australia and Qatar.
In addition, there are several other export terminals that FERC has approved but
construction has not yet started. And other projects are in the works but have not yet been
approved.
According to the Institute of Energy Research, global LNG demand is currently around 37 Bcf
per day. This is expected to grow substantially as China is shifting part of its power
generation capacity from coal to natural gas. And US LNG exports to China have surged from
nothing two years ago to 25.6 billion cubic feet in October (for the month, not per day):
US natural gas production has been booming since 2009 as fracking in prolific shale plays
took off, and the price has collapsed – it currently is below $3 per million British
thermal units (mmBtu) at the NYMEX, despite tthe majestic cold wave that is gripping a big part
of the country.
Exporting large quantities of LNG is a momentous shift for the US because it connects
previously landlocked US production to the rest of the world. Unlike oil, the US natural gas
market has largely been isolated from global pricing.
This caused some immense price differences between the US market -- where a gas "glut"
crushed prices, pushing them from time to time even below $2/mmBtu -- and, for example, the
Japanese LNG import market, with prices that were in the $16-$17/mmBtu range in 2013 and 2014.
Even the average spot price contracted in November 2017, the most recent data made available by
the Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry , was $9/mmBtu. US LNG exporters hope to arbitrage these price
differentials.
Meanwhile, US producers are hoping that this overseas demand will mop up the glut in the US
and allow them to finally boost prices, including the prices LNG exporters pay. But funding
continues pouring into the oil and gas sector to pump up production, and prices have remained
low, and drillers continue to bleed.
And there are already global consequences – including in Europe, where large regions,
including Germany, increasingly depend on natural gas from Russia as production in Europe is
declining. The new competition from the US – though it really hasn't started in earnest
yet since most of US LNG goes to places other than Europe at the moment – is already
reverberating through the Europe-Russia natural gas trade.
The first major LNG export terminal in the Lower 48 began commercial deliveries in early
2016
Hmmm, is this a case of build it and they will come? Somebody has to sink the capital in
to build a fleet of LNG containers which will take a decade to come online. Somebody also has
the build the LNG terminals as well as the infrastructure to go along with it.
Poland may
have one built but think about this – the Ukraine may be happy to pay for American coal
which is twice as expensive as what they could buy from the Donbass regions but will Europe
be happy to pay double or more for LNG from the US just to spite the Russians?
Consider this as well. That LNG terminal is in Louisiana. Which is in the Gulf. Which has all
those annual hurricanes. Which is getting worse through climate change. Would the Europeans
want to risk depending on American deliveries under these conditions? I will reword that.
Will the Europeans want to risk their economies over this? Last year they shut down the place
for a month for repairs. What if Hurricane Harvey had slammed into the place. How will the
Europeans be able to trust that a future Trump doesn't shut down LNG deliveries in winter
time to get them to commit to some American policy? Too many variables with no net gain and
all loss – on their part.
"... I fully agree that attacking Iran would be yet another disaster but I don't understand why Saudi Arabia is portrayed as an 'enemy', the 'real' one, no less, in alt-media circles like this. I mean let's be honest with ourselves. KSA is the definition of a vassal state. Has been so since the state established established relations with the USA in the 1940s and the status was confirmed during the 1960s under King Faisal. Oil for security. Why pretend that they have any operational clearance from the US? ..."
I fully agree that attacking Iran would be yet another disaster but I don't understand
why Saudi Arabia is portrayed as an 'enemy', the 'real' one, no less, in alt-media circles
like this. I mean let's be honest with ourselves. KSA is the definition of a vassal
state. Has been so since the state established established relations with the USA in the
1940s and the status was confirmed during the 1960s under King Faisal. Oil for security. Why
pretend that they have any operational clearance from the US?
Contrary to the popular view, Wahabism is necessary to keep the local population under
control. Particularly the minority Shia population who live along the eastern coast, an area,
which incidentally also has the all the oil reserves.
USA fully understands this. Which is why they not only tolerated Wahabism, but strongly
promoted it during Afghan jihad. The operation was by and large very successful btw.
It was only during the '90s when religion became the new ideology for the resistance
against the empire across the Muslim world. Zero surprise there because the preceding
ideology, radical left wing politics was completely defeated. Iran became the first country
in this pattern. The Iranian left was decimated by the Shah, another vassal. So the religious
right became the new resistance.
And as far as the KSA is considered, Wahabi preachers aren't allowed to attack the USA
anyway. If any individual preacher so much as makes a squeak, he will be bent over a barrel.
There won't be any "coming down very hard on Saudi Arabia" because USA already owns that
country.
So what's the answer? Well, props to Phillip as he understood – "it would also
require some serious thinking in the White House about the extent to which America's armed
interventions all over Asia and Africa have made many people hate us enough to strap on a
suicide vest and have a go."
Your analysis starts too late. The US supports Wahhabism and the House of Saud because
the pro-Arabic/Islamic English Elites of 1910 and 1920 and 1935 supported Wahhabism and
the House of Saud.
The British Empire 'made' the House of Saud,
Thinking it wise to use Wahhabism to control Shia Islam is like thinking it wise to
use blacks to control the criminal tendencies of Mexicans.
The Last but not LeastTechnology is dominated by
two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand ~Archibald Putt.
Ph.D
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FILE PHOTO. © Lucy Nicholson / Reuters The tax and trade policies of Donald Trump are, in fact, what have contributed to the surge in oil prices, a US economics professor told RT, adding that the US President's tough words to OPEC are a political stunt. On Thursday, Trump accused OPEC's Middle East producers of "pushing for higher and higher oil prices" and demanded "they stop it," adding that the US is "protecting those countries." Oil prices showed a mixed reaction to Trump's words. The Brent benchmark fell 43 cents to $78.97 per barrel, while the US Texas Intermediate grew by 9 cents to $71.21.
Trump demands OPEC lower oil prices, claims US 'protects' Middle East countries
FILE PHOTO: Iranian Parliament © Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency / AFP In a rare statement Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has lashed out at the country's authorities, accusing them of poorly handling internal issues. The mismanagement is even worse than US sanctions, he said. "It is not that the sanctions do not play a role; but a major part of the situation is the result of [government's own] actions," Khamenei said, according to Irna, as he was addressing thousands of Iranians in Tehran on Monday.
Rouhani blasts Trump's 'psychological warfare' as Iran braces for US sanctions
Ukraine is overpaying for European gas & wants Russia to foot the bill
Yuzivske field prognostic resources are estimated at 2-4trln m3 of gas, which can be a viable alternative for costly natural gas volumes Ukraine imports form Russia. In the meanwhile US Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates Ukraine's shale gas potential at 1.2trln m3 in this way making the country's shale gas reserves the 4th largest in Europe after Poland, France and Norway. Totally consuming some 60bn m3 of natural gas annually, Ukraine has to import 40bn m3 of natural gas from Russia priced $430 per 1,000 m3 based on the terms of agreements inked in 2009.
Saudi Update October 2018
http://crudeoilpeak.info/saudi-update-october-2018